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Sample records for nonconservative earthquake model

  1. Improvements in Nonconservative Force Modelling for TOPEX/POSEIDON

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lemoine, Frank G.; Rowlands, David D.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Kubitschek, Daniel G.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Zelensky, Nikita B.; Born, George H.

    1999-01-01

    It was recognized prior to the launch of TOPEX/POSEIDON, that the most important source of orbit error other than the gravity field, was due to nonconservative force modelling. Accordingly, an intensive effort was undertaken to study the nonconservative forces acting on the spacecraft using detailed finite element modelling (Antreasian, 1992; Antreasian and Rosborough, 1992). However, this detailed modelling was not suitable for orbit determination, and a simplified eight plate "box-wing" model was developed that took into account the aggregate effect of the various materials and associated thermal properties of each spacecraft surface. The a priori model was later tuned post launch with actual tracking data [Nerem et al., 1994; Marshall and Luthcke, 1994; Marshall et al., 1995]. More recently, Kubitschek (1997] developed a newer box-wing model for TOPEX/POSEIDON, which included updated material properties, accounted for a solar array deflection, and modelled solar array warping due to thermal effects. We have used this updated model as a basis to retune the macromodel for TOPEX/POSEIDON, and report on preliminary results using at least 36 cycles (one year) of SLR and DORIS data in 1993.

  2. An uncertainty inclusive un-mixing model to identify tracer non-conservativeness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherriff, Sophie; Rowan, John; Franks, Stewart; Fenton, Owen; Jordan, Phil; hUallacháin, Daire Ó.

    2015-04-01

    Sediment fingerprinting is being increasingly recognised as an essential tool for catchment soil and water management. Selected physico-chemical properties (tracers) of soils and river sediments are used in a statistically-based 'un-mixing' model to apportion sediment delivered to the catchment outlet (target) to its upstream sediment sources. Development of uncertainty-inclusive approaches, taking into account uncertainties in the sampling, measurement and statistical un-mixing, are improving the robustness of results. However, methodological challenges remain including issues of particle size and organic matter selectivity and non-conservative behaviour of tracers - relating to biogeochemical transformations along the transport pathway. This study builds on our earlier uncertainty-inclusive approach (FR2000) to detect and assess the impact of tracer non-conservativeness using synthetic data before applying these lessons to new field data from Ireland. Un-mixing was conducted on 'pristine' and 'corrupted' synthetic datasets containing three to fifty tracers (in the corrupted dataset one target tracer value was manually corrupted to replicate non-conservative behaviour). Additionally, a smaller corrupted dataset was un-mixed using a permutation version of the algorithm. Field data was collected in an 11 km2 river catchment in Ireland. Source samples were collected from topsoils, subsoils, channel banks, open field drains, damaged road verges and farm tracks. Target samples were collected using time integrated suspended sediment samplers at the catchment outlet at 6-12 week intervals from July 2012 to June 2013. Samples were dried (<40°C), sieved (125 µm) and analysed for mineral magnetic susceptibility, anhysteretic remanence and iso-thermal remanence, and geochemical elements Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn (following microwave-assisted acid digestion). Discriminant analysis was used to reduce the number of tracer numbers before un-mixing. Tracer non-conservativeness

  3. Nonconservative force model parameter estimation strategy for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luthcke, S. B.; Marshall, J. A.

    1992-01-01

    The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data it is to collect, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. To reach our pre-launch radial orbit accuracy goals, the mismodeling of the radiative nonconservative forces of solar radiation, Earth albedo an infrared re-radiation, and spacecraft thermal imbalances cannot produce in combination more than a 6 cm rms error over a 10 day period. Similarly, the 10-day drag modeling error cannot exceed 3 cm rms. In order to satisfy these requirements, a 'box-wing' representation of the satellite has been developed in which, the satellite is modelled as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connected solar array. The radiative/thermal nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Select parameters associated with the flat plates are adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. This study analyzes the estimation of these parameters from simulated TOPEX/Poseidon laser data in the presence of both nonconservative and gravity model errors. A 'best choice' of estimated parameters is derived and the ability to meet mission requirements with the 'box-wing' model evaluated.

  4. Nonconservative force model parameter estimation strategy for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luthcke, S. B.; Marshall, J. A.

    1992-11-01

    The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data it is to collect, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. To reach our pre-launch radial orbit accuracy goals, the mismodeling of the radiative nonconservative forces of solar radiation, Earth albedo an infrared re-radiation, and spacecraft thermal imbalances cannot produce in combination more than a 6 cm rms error over a 10 day period. Similarly, the 10-day drag modeling error cannot exceed 3 cm rms. In order to satisfy these requirements, a 'box-wing' representation of the satellite has been developed in which, the satellite is modelled as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connected solar array. The radiative/thermal nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Select parameters associated with the flat plates are adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. This study analyzes the estimation of these parameters from simulated TOPEX/Poseidon laser data in the presence of both nonconservative and gravity model errors. A 'best choice' of estimated parameters is derived and the ability to meet mission requirements with the 'box-wing' model evaluated.

  5. Gravity and Nonconservative Force Model Tuning for the GEOSAT Follow-On Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lemoine, Frank G.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Rowlands, David D.; Luthcke, Scott B.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Marr, Gregory C.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The US Navy's GEOSAT Follow-On spacecraft was launched on February 10, 1998 and the primary objective of the mission was to map the oceans using a radar altimeter. Three radar altimeter calibration campaigns have been conducted in 1999 and 2000. The spacecraft is tracked by satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler beacons and a limited amount of data have been obtained from the Global Positioning Receiver (GPS) on board the satellite. Even with EGM96, the predicted radial orbit error due to gravity field mismodelling (to 70x70) remains high at 2.61 cm (compared to 0.88 cm for TOPEX). We report on the preliminary gravity model tuning for GFO using SLR, and altimeter crossover data. Preliminary solutions using SLR and GFO/GFO crossover data from CalVal campaigns I and II in June-August 1999, and January-February 2000 have reduced the predicted radial orbit error to 1.9 cm and further reduction will be possible when additional data are added to the solutions. The gravity model tuning has improved principally the low order m-daily terms and has reduced significantly the geographically correlated error present in this satellite orbit. In addition to gravity field mismodelling, the largest contributor to the orbit error is the non-conservative force mismodelling. We report on further nonconservative force model tuning results using available data from over one cycle in beta prime.

  6. Noether's theorem for non-conservative Hamilton system based on El-Nabulsi dynamical model extended by periodic laws

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Long, Zi-Xuan; Zhang, Yi

    2014-11-01

    This paper focuses on the Noether symmetries and the conserved quantities for both holonomic and nonholonomic systems based on a new non-conservative dynamical model introduced by El-Nabulsi. First, the El-Nabulsi dynamical model which is based on a fractional integral extended by periodic laws is introduced, and El-Nabulsi—Hamilton's canonical equations for non-conservative Hamilton system with holonomic or nonholonomic constraints are established. Second, the definitions and criteria of El-Nabulsi—Noether symmetrical transformations and quasi-symmetrical transformations are presented in terms of the invariance of El-Nabulsi—Hamilton action under the infinitesimal transformations of the group. Finally, Noether's theorems for the non-conservative Hamilton system under the El-Nabulsi dynamical system are established, which reveal the relationship between the Noether symmetry and the conserved quantity of the system.

  7. Nonextensive models for earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, R.; França, G. S.; Vilar, C. S.; Alcaniz, J. S.

    2006-02-01

    We have revisited the fragment-asperity interaction model recently introduced by Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas [Phy. Rev. Lett. 92, 048501 (2004)] by considering a different definition for mean values in the context of Tsallis nonextensive statistics and introducing a scale between the earthquake energy and the size of fragment γ∝r3 . The energy-distribution function (EDF) deduced in our approach is considerably different from the one obtained in the above reference. We have also tested the viability of this EDF with data from two different catalogs (in three different areas), namely, the NEIC and the Bulletin Seismic of the Revista Brasileira de Geofísica. Although both approaches provide very similar values for the nonextensive parameter q , other physical quantities, e.g., energy density, differ considerably by several orders of magnitude.

  8. Nonextensive models for earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Silva, R; França, G S; Vilar, C S; Alcaniz, J S

    2006-02-01

    We have revisited the fragment-asperity interaction model recently introduced by Sotolongo-Costa and Posadas [Phy. Rev. Lett. 92, 048501 (2004)] by considering a different definition for mean values in the context of Tsallis nonextensive statistics and introducing a scale between the earthquake energy and the size of fragment epsilon proportional to r3. The energy-distribution function (EDF) deduced in our approach is considerably different from the one obtained in the above reference. We have also tested the viability of this EDF with data from two different catalogs (in three different areas), namely, the NEIC and the Bulletin Seismic of the Revista Brasileira de Geofísica. Although both approaches provide very similar values for the nonextensive parameter , other physical quantities, e.g., energy density, differ considerably by several orders of magnitude.

  9. Two models for earthquake forerunners

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mjachkin, V.I.; Brace, W.F.; Sobolev, G.A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    1975-01-01

    Similar precursory phenomena have been observed before earthquakes in the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Two quite different physical models are used to explain these phenomena. According to a model developed by US seismologists, the so-called dilatancy diffusion model, the earthquake occurs near maximum stress, following a period of dilatant crack expansion. Diffusion of water in and out of the dilatant volume is required to explain the recovery of seismic velocity before the earthquake. According to a model developed by Soviet scientists growth of cracks is also involved but diffusion of water in and out of the focal region is not required. With this model, the earthquake is assumed to occur during a period of falling stress and recovery of velocity here is due to crack closure as stress relaxes. In general, the dilatancy diffusion model gives a peaked precursor form, whereas the dry model gives a bay form, in which recovery is well under way before the earthquake. A number of field observations should help to distinguish between the two models: study of post-earthquake recovery, time variation of stress and pore pressure in the focal region, the occurrence of pre-existing faults, and any changes in direction of precursory phenomena during the anomalous period. ?? 1975 Birkha??user Verlag.

  10. An improved GRACE monthly gravity field solution by modeling the non-conservative acceleration and attitude observation errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Qiujie; Shen, Yunzhong; Chen, Wu; Zhang, Xingfu; Hsu, Houze

    2016-06-01

    The main contribution of this study is to improve the GRACE gravity field solution by taking errors of non-conservative acceleration and attitude observations into account. Unlike previous studies, the errors of the attitude and non-conservative acceleration data, and gravity field parameters, as well as accelerometer biases are estimated by means of weighted least squares adjustment. Then we compute a new time series of monthly gravity field models complete to degree and order 60 covering the period Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2012 from the twin GRACE satellites' data. The derived GRACE solution (called Tongji-GRACE02) is compared in terms of geoid degree variances and temporal mass changes with the other GRACE solutions, namely CSR RL05, GFZ RL05a, and JPL RL05. The results show that (1) the global mass signals of Tongji-GRACE02 are generally consistent with those of CSR RL05, GFZ RL05a, and JPL RL05; (2) compared to CSR RL05, the noise of Tongji-GRACE02 is reduced by about 21 % over ocean when only using 300 km Gaussian smoothing, and 60 % or more over deserts (Australia, Kalahari, Karakum and Thar) without using Gaussian smoothing and decorrelation filtering; and (3) for all examples, the noise reductions are more significant than signal reductions, no matter whether smoothing and filtering are applied or not. The comparison with GLDAS data supports that the signals of Tongji-GRACE02 over St. Lawrence River basin are close to those from CSR RL05, GFZ RL05a and JPL RL05, while the GLDAS result shows the best agreement with the Tongji-GRACE02 result.

  11. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  12. Network of epicenters of the Olami-Feder-Christensen model of earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Peixoto, Tiago P; Prado, Carmen P C

    2006-07-01

    We study the dynamics of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model of earthquakes, focusing on the behavior of sequences of epicenters regarded as a growing complex network. Besides making a detailed and quantitative study of the effects of the borders (the occurrence of epicenters is dominated by a strong border effect which does not scale with system size), we examine the degree distribution and the degree correlation of the graph. We detect sharp differences between the conservative and nonconservative regimes of the model. Removing border effects, the conservative regime exhibits a Poisson-like degree statistics and is uncorrelated, while the nonconservative has a broad power-law-like distribution of degrees (if the smallest events are ignored), which reproduces the observed behavior of real earthquakes. In this regime the graph has also an unusually strong degree correlation among the vertices with higher degree, which is the result of the existence of temporary attractors for the dynamics: as the system evolves, the epicenters concentrate increasingly on fewer sites, exhibiting strong synchronization, but eventually spread again over the lattice after a series of sufficiently large earthquakes. We propose an analytical description of the dynamics of this growing network, considering a Markov process network with hidden variables, which is able to account for the mentioned properties.

  13. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  14. Properties of foreshocks and aftershocks of the nonconservative self-organized critical Olami-Feder-Christensen model.

    PubMed

    Helmstetter, Agnès; Hergarten, Stefan; Sornette, Didier

    2004-10-01

    Following Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 238501 (2002)] who discovered aftershocks and foreshocks in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the clustering of real seismicity in time and space. We find that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share many properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level: Omori's law (aftershocks) and inverse Omori's law (foreshocks), increase of the number of aftershocks and of the aftershock zone size with the mainshock magnitude. There are, however, significant quantitative differences. The number of aftershocks per mainshock in the OFC model is smaller than in real seismicity, especially for large mainshocks. We find that foreshocks in the OFC catalogs can be in large part described by a simple model of triggered seismicity, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. But the properties of foreshocks in the OFC model depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with real seismicity and with the ETAS model.

  15. Properties of foreshocks and aftershocks of the nonconservative self-organized critical Olami-Feder-Christensen model

    SciTech Connect

    Helmstetter, Agnes; Hergarten, Stefan; Sornette, Didier

    2004-10-01

    Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 238501, 2002] who discovered aftershocks and foreshocks in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this model is sufficient to account for the clustering of real seismicity in time and space. We find that synthetic catalogs generated by the OFC model share many properties of real seismicity at a qualitative level: Omori's law (aftershocks) and inverse Omori's law (foreshocks), increase of the number of aftershocks and of the aftershock zone size with the mainshock magnitude. There are, however, significant quantitative differences. The number of aftershocks per mainshock in the OFC model is smaller than in real seismicity, especially for large mainshocks. We find that foreshocks in the OFC catalogs can be in large part described by a simple model of triggered seismicity, such as the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. But the properties of foreshocks in the OFC model depend on the mainshock magnitude, in qualitative agreement with the critical earthquake model and in disagreement with real seismicity and with the ETAS model.

  16. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

    2016-12-01

    A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM < 4.0 × 1019 Pa s and ηM > 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

  17. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

    2007-01-01

    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  18. Multiplicative earthquake likelihood models incorporating strain rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhoades, D. A.; Christophersen, A.; Gerstenberger, M. C.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARYWe examine the potential for strain-rate variables to improve long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> likelihood <span class="hlt">models</span>. We derive a set of multiplicative hybrid <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> likelihood <span class="hlt">models</span> in which cell rates in a spatially uniform baseline <span class="hlt">model</span> are scaled using combinations of covariates derived from <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogue data, fault data, and strain-rates for the New Zealand region. Three components of the strain rate estimated from GPS data over the period 1991-2011 are considered: the shear, rotational and dilatational strain rates. The hybrid <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters are optimised for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of M 5 and greater over the period 1987-2006 and tested on <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from the period 2012-2015, which is independent of the strain rate estimates. The shear strain rate is overall the most informative individual covariate, as indicated by Molchan error diagrams as well as multiplicative <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. Most <span class="hlt">models</span> including strain rates are significantly more informative than the best <span class="hlt">models</span> excluding strain rates in both the fitting and testing period. A hybrid that combines the shear and dilatational strain rates with a smoothed seismicity covariate is the most informative <span class="hlt">model</span> in the fitting period, and a simpler <span class="hlt">model</span> without the dilatational strain rate is the most informative in the testing period. These results have implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and can be used to improve the background <span class="hlt">model</span> component of medium-term and short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1215479A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1215479A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Risk <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> - Opening the black box</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alarcon, John E.; Simic, Milan; Franco, Guillermo; Shen-Tu, Bingming</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Assessing the risk from natural catastrophes such as <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> involves the detailed study of the seismic sources and site conditions that contribute to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in the region of interest, the distribution and particular characteristics of the exposures through the study of building stock and its vulnerabilities, and the application of specific financial terms for particular portfolios. The catastrophe <span class="hlt">modelling</span> framework encompasses these relatively complex considerations while also including a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes succinctly the structure and modules included in a probabilistic catastrophe risk <span class="hlt">model</span> and presents several examples of risk <span class="hlt">modelling</span> for realistic scenarios such as the expected <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Marmara Sea region of Turkey and the results from <span class="hlt">modelling</span> the 2009 L'Aquila (Abruzzo) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/467932','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/467932"><span id="translatedtitle">New geological perspectives on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Schwartz, D.P.</p> <p>1997-02-01</p> <p>In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, <span class="hlt">models</span> that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li class="active"><span>1</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_1 --> <div id="page_2" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="21"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6087382','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6087382"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> for repetitive cycles of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Newman, W.I.; Knopoff, L.</p> <p>1983-04-01</p> <p>The theory of the fusion of small cracks into large ones reproduces certain features also observed in the clustering of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences. By modifying our earlier <span class="hlt">model</span> to take into account the stress release associated with the occurrence of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, we obtain repetitive periodic cycles of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A preliminary conclusion is that a combination of the stress release or elastic rebound mechanism plus time delays in the fusion process are sufficient to destabilize the crack populations and, ultimately, give rise to repetitive episodes of seismicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22038562','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22038562"><span id="translatedtitle">Parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in ytterbium ion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Sahoo, B. K.; Das, B. P.</p> <p>2011-07-15</p> <p>We consider parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> (PNC) in singly ionized ytterbium (Yb{sup +}) arising from the neutral current weak interaction. We calculate the PNC electric dipole transition amplitude (E1{sub PNC}) and the properties associated with it using relativistic coupled-cluster theory. E1{sub PNC} for the [4f{sup 14}] {sup 2}6s{yields}[4f{sup 14}] {sup 2}5d{sub 3/2} transition in Yb{sup +} has been evaluated to within an accuracy of 5%. The improvement of this result is possible. It therefore appears that this ion is a promising candidate for testing the standard <span class="hlt">model</span> of particle physics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S23C..02M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S23C..02M"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> interdependence and insurance loss <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Muir Wood, R.</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p>Probabilistic Catastrophe loss <span class="hlt">modeling</span> generally assumes that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are independent events and occur far enough apart in time that damage from one event is fully restituted before another <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurs. While time dependence and cascade fault rupturing are today standard elements of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard engine, in the next generation of Catastrophe loss <span class="hlt">models</span> one can expect to find a more comprehensive range of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> interdependence represented in a full simulation <span class="hlt">modeling</span> environment. Such behavior includes the incorporation of the ways in which <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> relate one to another in both space and time (including foreshock, aftershock and triggered mainshock distinctions) and the damage that can be predicted from overlapping damage fields as related to the length of time for reconstruction that has elapsed between events. For insurance purposes losses are framed by the 168 hour clause for classifying losses as falling within the same `event' for reinsurance recoveries as well as the annual insurance contract. The understanding of the ways in which stress changes associated with fault rupture affect the probabilities of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on surrounding faults has also expanded the predictability of potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences as well as highlighted the potential to identify locations where, for some time window, risk can be discounted. While it can be illuminating to explore the loss and insurance implications of the patterns of historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence seen historically along the Nankaido subduction zone of Southern Japan, in New Madrid from 1811-1812, or Nevada in 1954, the sequences to be expected in the future are unlikely to have historical precedent in the region in which they form.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S31C4409S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S31C4409S"><span id="translatedtitle">Distributed Slip <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Simulating Virtual <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shani-Kadmiel, S.; Tsesarsky, M.; Gvirtzman, Z.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>We develop a physics based, generic finite fault source, which we call the Distributed Slip <span class="hlt">Model</span> (DSM) for simulating large virtual <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. This task is a necessary step towards ground motion prediction in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-prone areas with limited instrumental coverage. A reliable ground motion prediction based on virtual <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> must account for site, path, and source effects. Assessment of site effect mainly depends on near-surface material properties which are relatively well constrained, using geotechnical site data and borehole measurements. Assessment of path effect depends on the deeper geological structure, which is also typically known to an acceptable resolution. Contrarily to these two effects, which remain constant for a given area of interest, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture process and geometry varies from one <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to the other. In this study we focus on a finite fault source representation which is both generic and physics-based, for simulating large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> where limited knowledge is available. Thirteen geometric and kinematic parameters are used to describe the smooth "pseudo-Gaussian" slip distribution, such that slip decays from a point of peak slip within an elliptical rupture patch to zero at the borders of the patch. Radiation pattern and spectral charectaristics of our DSM are compared to those of commonly used finite fault <span class="hlt">models</span>, i.e., the classical Haskell's <span class="hlt">Model</span> (HM) and the modified HM with Radial Rupture Propagation (HM-RRP) and the Point Source <span class="hlt">Model</span> (PSM). Ground motion prediction based on our DSM benefits from the symmetry of the PSM and the directivity of the HM while overcoming inadequacy for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of the former and the non-physical uniform slip of the latter.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616671S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616671S"><span id="translatedtitle">The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> - Past, Present, Future</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and <span class="hlt">models</span> for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and <span class="hlt">models</span>: • ISC-GEM Instrumental <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and <span class="hlt">Model</span> • Global Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation <span class="hlt">Model</span> • Global Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4459208','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4459208"><span id="translatedtitle">On the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability of fault interaction <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Marzocchi, W; Melini, D</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based <span class="hlt">model</span> in which <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, its ex-ante skill in terms of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> often does not increase significantly <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is much larger than the stress changes caused by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence process. PMID:26074643</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.8294M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.8294M"><span id="translatedtitle">On the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability of fault interaction <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Marzocchi, W.; Melini, D.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Space-time clustering is the most striking departure of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurrence process from randomness. These clusters are usually described ex-post by a physics-based <span class="hlt">model</span> in which <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are triggered by Coulomb stress changes induced by other surrounding <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Notwithstanding the popularity of this kind of <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, its ex-ante skill in terms of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability gain is still unknown. Here we show that even in synthetic systems that are rooted on the physics of fault interaction using the Coulomb stress changes, such a kind of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> often does not increase significantly <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> predictability of a fault may increase only when the Coulomb stress change induced by a nearby <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is much larger than the stress changes caused by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on other faults and by the intrinsic variability of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25314453','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25314453"><span id="translatedtitle">Aftershocks in a frictional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Braun, O M; Tosatti, Erio</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Inspired by spring-block <span class="hlt">models</span>, we elaborate a "minimal" physical <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our point is to demonstrate that the simultaneous incorporation of aging of contacts in the sliding interface and of elasticity of the sliding plates constitutes the minimal ingredients to account for both laws within the same frictional <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://medlineplus.gov/earthquakes.html','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://medlineplus.gov/earthquakes.html"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ready.gov/earthquakes','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://www.ready.gov/earthquakes"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... Thunderstorms & Lightning Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Main Content <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are sudden rolling or shaking events caused ... at any time of the year. Before An <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Look around places where you spend time. Identify ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11607669','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11607669"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip complexity in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rice, J R; Ben-Zion, Y</p> <p>1996-04-30</p> <p>We summarize studies of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault <span class="hlt">models</span> that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. For <span class="hlt">models</span> of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. <span class="hlt">Models</span> of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences. In contrast, some <span class="hlt">models</span> of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the <span class="hlt">model</span> becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. <span class="hlt">Models</span> based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such <span class="hlt">models</span> show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21949355','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21949355"><span id="translatedtitle">Results of the Regional <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Likelihood <span class="hlt">Models</span> (RELM) test of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasts in California.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L; Holliday, James R; Sachs, Michael K; Rundle, John B; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F</p> <p>2011-10-04</p> <p>The Regional <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Likelihood <span class="hlt">Models</span> (RELM) test of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M ≥ 4.95 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M ≥ 4.95 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred in the test region. These <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in northern Mexico. This <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most "successful" in terms of the locations of future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://db.nzsee.org.nz/2011/224.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://db.nzsee.org.nz/2011/224.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">Human casualties in <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: <span class="hlt">modelling</span> and mitigation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> risk <span class="hlt">modelling</span> is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation <span class="hlt">models</span> available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty <span class="hlt">models</span> in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNG13A1861R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNG13A1861R"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Statistical and Dynamic Features of <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rydelek, P. A.; Suyehiro, K.; Sacks, S. I.; Smith, D. E.; Takanami, T.; Hatano, T.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The cellular automaton <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> by Sacks and Rydelek (1995) is extended to explain spatio-temporal change in seismicity with the regional tectonic stress buildup. Our approach is to apply a simple Coulomb failure law to our <span class="hlt">model</span> space of discrete cells, which successfully reproduces empirical laws (e.g. Gutenberg-Richter law) and dynamic failure characteristics (e.g. stress drop vs. magnitude and asperities) of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Once the stress condition supersedes the Coulomb threshold on a discrete cell, its accumulated stress is transferred to only neighboring cells, which cascades to more neighboring cells to create various size ruptures. A fundamental point here is the cellular view of the continuous earth. We suggest the cell size varies regionally with the maturity of the faults of the region. Seismic gaps (e.g. Mogi, 1979) and changes in seismicity such as indicated by b-values have been known but poorly understood. There have been reports of magnitude dependent seismic quiescence before large event at plate boundaries and intraplate (Smith et al., 2013). Recently, decreases in b-value for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have been reported (Nanjo et al., 2012) as anticipated from lab experiments (Mogi, 1963). Our <span class="hlt">model</span> reproduces the b-value decrease towards eventual large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (increasing tectonic stress and its heterogeneous distribution). We succeeded in reproducing the cut-off of larger events above some threshold magnitude (M3-4) by slightly increasing the Coulomb failure level for only 2 % or more of the highly stressed cells. This is equivalent to reducing the pore pressure in these distributed cells. We are working on the <span class="hlt">model</span> to introduce the recovery of pore pressure incorporating the observed orders of magnitude higher permeability fault zones than the surrounding rock (Lockner, 2009) allowing for a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to be generated. Our interpretation requires interactions of pores and fluids. We suggest heterogeneously distributed patches hardened</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ194839.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ194839.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Walter, Edward J.</p> <p>1977-01-01</p> <p>Presents an analysis of the causes of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on a given structure; (2) description of some large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. (HM)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED241329.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED241329.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Pakiser, Louis C.</p> <p></p> <p>One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the booklet discusses <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, earthquake…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvL.114h8501K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvL.114h8501K"><span id="translatedtitle">Foreshock and Aftershocks in Simple <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kazemian, J.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Dominguez, R.</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Many <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults have been introduced that connect Gutenberg-Richter (GR) scaling to triggering processes. However, natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault systems are composed of a variety of different geometries and materials and the associated heterogeneity in physical properties can cause a variety of spatial and temporal behaviors. This raises the question of how the triggering process and the structure interact to produce the observed phenomena. Here we present a simple <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault <span class="hlt">model</span> based on the Olami-Feder-Christensen and Rundle-Jackson-Brown cellular automata <span class="hlt">models</span> with long-range interactions that incorporates a fixed percentage of stronger sites, or asperity cells, into the lattice. These asperity cells are significantly stronger than the surrounding lattice sites but eventually rupture when the applied stress reaches their higher threshold stress. The introduction of these spatial heterogeneities results in temporal clustering in the <span class="hlt">model</span> that mimics that seen in natural fault systems along with GR scaling. In addition, we observe sequences of activity that start with a gradually accelerating number of larger events (foreshocks) prior to a main shock that is followed by a tail of decreasing activity (aftershocks). This work provides further evidence that the spatial and temporal patterns observed in natural seismicity are strongly influenced by the underlying physical properties and are not solely the result of a simple cascade mechanism.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014648','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014648"><span id="translatedtitle">ON NONSTATIONARY STOCHASTIC <span class="hlt">MODELS</span> FOR <span class="hlt">EARTHQUAKES</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Safak, Erdal; Boore, David M.</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>A seismological stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground-motion description is presented. Seismological <span class="hlt">models</span> are based on the physical properties of the source and the medium and have significant advantages over the widely used empirical <span class="hlt">models</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> discussed here provides a convenient form for estimating structural response by using random vibration theory. A commonly used random process for ground acceleration, filtered white-noise multiplied by an envelope function, introduces some errors in response calculations for structures whose periods are longer than the faulting duration. An alternate random process, filtered shot-noise process, eliminates these errors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39441','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39441"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip complexity in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Rice, J R; Ben-Zion, Y</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>We summarize studies of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault <span class="hlt">models</span> that give rise to slip complexities like those in natural <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. For <span class="hlt">models</span> of smooth faults between elastically deformable continua, it is critical that the friction laws involve a characteristic distance for slip weakening or evolution of surface state. That results in a finite nucleation size, or coherent slip patch size, h*. <span class="hlt">Models</span> of smooth faults, using numerical cell size properly small compared to h*, show periodic response or complex and apparently chaotic histories of large events but have not been found to show small event complexity like the self-similar (power law) Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics. This conclusion is supported in the present paper by fully inertial elastodynamic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences. In contrast, some <span class="hlt">models</span> of locally heterogeneous faults with quasi-independent fault segments, represented approximately by simulations with cell size larger than h* so that the <span class="hlt">model</span> becomes "inherently discrete," do show small event complexity of the Gutenberg-Richter type. <span class="hlt">Models</span> based on classical friction laws without a weakening length scale or for which the numerical procedure imposes an abrupt strength drop at the onset of slip have h* = 0 and hence always fall into the inherently discrete class. We suggest that the small-event complexity that some such <span class="hlt">models</span> show will not survive regularization of the constitutive description, by inclusion of an appropriate length scale leading to a finite h*, and a corresponding reduction of numerical grid size. Images Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 PMID:11607669</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006Tectp.417..141C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006Tectp.417..141C"><span id="translatedtitle">Physical and stochastic <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Catalli, Flaminia</p> <p>2006-04-01</p> <p>The phenomenon of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering, i.e., the increase of occurrence probability for seismic events close in space and time to other previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, has been <span class="hlt">modeled</span> both by statistical and physical processes. From a statistical viewpoint the so-called epidemic <span class="hlt">model</span> (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations have become fairly well known in the seismological community. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian <span class="hlt">model</span> through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity. On the other hand, in the last decade many papers have been published on the so-called Coulomb stress change principle, based on the theory of elasticity, showing qualitatively that an increase of the Coulomb stress in a given area is usually associated with an increase of seismic activity. More specifically, the rate-and-state theory developed by Dieterich in the '90s has been able to give a physical justification to the phenomenon known as Omori law. According to this law, a mainshock is followed by a series of aftershocks whose frequency decreases in time as an inverse power law. In this study we give an outline of the above-mentioned stochastic and physical <span class="hlt">models</span>, and build up an approach by which these <span class="hlt">models</span> can be merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. The application to the seismicity of Japan from 1970 to 2003 shows that the new <span class="hlt">model</span> incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not worse than the purely stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> with two free parameters only. The numerical results obtained in these applications are related to physical characters of the <span class="hlt">model</span> as the stress change produced by an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> close to its edges and to the A and σ parameters of the rate-and-state constitutive law.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_2 --> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70023307','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70023307"><span id="translatedtitle">The failure of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> failure <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Gomberg, J.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>In this study I show that simple heuristic <span class="hlt">models</span> and numerical calculations suggest that an entire class of commonly invoked <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> failure processes cannot explain triggering of seismicity by transient or "dynamic" stress changes, such as stress changes associated with passing seismic waves. The <span class="hlt">models</span> of this class have the common feature that the physical property characterizing failure increases at an accelerating rate when a fault is loaded (stressed) at a constant rate. Examples include <span class="hlt">models</span> that invoke rate state friction or subcritical crack growth, in which the properties characterizing failure are slip or crack length, respectively. Failure occurs when the rate at which these grow accelerates to values exceeding some critical threshold. These accelerating failure <span class="hlt">models</span> do not predict the finite durations of dynamically triggered <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences (e.g., at aftershock or remote distances). Some of the failure <span class="hlt">models</span> belonging to this class have been used to explain static stress triggering of aftershocks. This may imply that the physical processes underlying dynamic triggering differs or that currently applied <span class="hlt">models</span> of static triggering require modification. If the former is the case, we might appeal to physical mechanisms relying on oscillatory deformations such as compaction of saturated fault gouge leading to pore pressure increase, or cyclic fatigue. However, if dynamic and static triggering mechanisms differ, one still needs to ask why static triggering <span class="hlt">models</span> that neglect these dynamic mechanisms appear to explain many observations. If the static and dynamic triggering mechanisms are the same, perhaps assumptions about accelerating failure and/or that triggering advances the failure times of a population of inevitable <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are incorrect.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25311138','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25311138"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> fast and slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at various scales.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ide, Satoshi</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Newly discovered slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to <span class="hlt">model</span> both fast and slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4275565','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4275565"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> fast and slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at various scales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>IDE, Satoshi</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sources represent dynamic rupture within rocky materials at depth and often can be <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as propagating shear slip controlled by friction laws. These laws provide boundary conditions on fault planes embedded in elastic media. Recent developments in observation networks, laboratory experiments, and methods of data analysis have expanded our knowledge of the physics of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Newly discovered slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are qualitatively different phenomena from ordinary fast <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and provide independent information on slow deformation at depth. Many numerical simulations have been carried out to <span class="hlt">model</span> both fast and slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, but problems remain, especially with scaling laws. Some mechanisms are required to explain the power-law nature of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture and the lack of characteristic length. Conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> that include a hierarchical structure over a wide range of scales would be helpful for characterizing diverse behavior in different seismic regions and for improving probabilistic forecasts of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. PMID:25311138</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.4484T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.4484T"><span id="translatedtitle">Calibration and validation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catastrophe <span class="hlt">models</span>. Case study: Impact Forecasting <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Algeria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe <span class="hlt">models</span> for the insurance industry in order to assure the <span class="hlt">model</span>'s reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of <span class="hlt">model</span> development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the <span class="hlt">model</span> match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe <span class="hlt">modelling</span> development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> for Algeria as a part of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> for the Maghreb region. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation <span class="hlt">model</span> by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our <span class="hlt">model</span>. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage <span class="hlt">models</span> also included aggregate damage <span class="hlt">models</span> for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The <span class="hlt">model</span> was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S13A0204R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S13A0204R"><span id="translatedtitle">Towards <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> slow <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> with Geodynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Regenauer-Lieb, K.; Yuen, D. A.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>We explore a new, properly scaled, thermal-mechanical geodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span>{^1} that can generate timescales now very close to those of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and of the same order as slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In our simulations we encounter two basically different bifurcation phenomena. One in which the shear zone nucleates in the ductile field, and the second which is fully associated with elasto-plastic (brittle, pressure- dependent) displacements. A quartz/feldspar composite slab has all two modes operating simultaneously in three different depth levels. The bottom of the crust is predominantly controlled by the elasto-visco-plastic mode while the top is controlled by the elasto-plastic mode. The exchange of the two modes appears to communicate on a sub-horizontal layer in a flip-flop fashion, which may yield a fractal-like signature in time and collapses into a critical temperature which for crustal rocks is around 500-580 K; in the middle of the brittle-ductile transition-zone. Near the critical temperature, stresses close to the ideal strength can be reached at local, meter-scale. Investigations of the thermal-mechanical properties under such extreme conditions are pivotal for understanding the physics of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. 1. Regenauer-Lieb, K., Weinberg, R. & Rosenbaum, G. The effect of energy feedbacks on continental strength. Nature 442, 67-70 (2006).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20778774','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20778774"><span id="translatedtitle">Quasiperiodic Events in an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Ramos, O.; Maaloey, K.J.; Altshuler, E.</p> <p>2006-03-10</p> <p>We introduce a modification of the Olami-Feder-Christensen <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve the resemblence with the Burridge-Knopoff mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant and finite force continually drives the system, resulting in instantaneous relaxations. Dynamical disorder is added to the thresholds following a narrow distribution. We find quasiperiodic behavior in the avalanche time series with a period proportional to the degree of dissipation of the system. Periodicity is not as robust as criticality when the threshold force distribution widens, or when an increasing noise is introduced in the values of the dissipation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ091669.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ091669.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard</p> <p>1974-01-01</p> <p>Describes the causes and effects of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction and control. (JR)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/earthquakes/','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/earthquakes/"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... and Cleanup Workers Hurricanes PSAs ASL Videos: Hurricanes Landslides & Mudslides Lightning Lightning Safety Tips First Aid Recommendations ... Disasters & Severe Weather <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes Wildfires Winter Weather <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> Language: ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92f2927S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvE..92f2927S"><span id="translatedtitle">Conservative perturbation theory for <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shah, Tirth; Chattopadhyay, Rohitashwa; Vaidya, Kedar; Chakraborty, Sagar</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>In this paper, we show how to use canonical perturbation theory for dissipative dynamical systems capable of showing limit-cycle oscillations. Thus, our work surmounts the hitherto perceived barrier for canonical perturbation theory that it can be applied only to a class of conservative systems, viz., Hamiltonian systems. In the process, we also find Hamiltonian structure for an important subset of Liénard system—a paradigmatic system for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> isolated and asymptotic oscillatory state. We discuss the possibility of extending our method to encompass an even wider range of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23679733','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23679733"><span id="translatedtitle">Classical mechanics of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Galley, Chad R</p> <p>2013-04-26</p> <p>Hamilton's principle of stationary action lies at the foundation of theoretical physics and is applied in many other disciplines from pure mathematics to economics. Despite its utility, Hamilton's principle has a subtle pitfall that often goes unnoticed in physics: it is formulated as a boundary value problem in time but is used to derive equations of motion that are solved with initial data. This subtlety can have undesirable effects. I present a formulation of Hamilton's principle that is compatible with initial value problems. Remarkably, this leads to a natural formulation for the Lagrangian and Hamiltonian dynamics of generic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems, thereby filling a long-standing gap in classical mechanics. Thus, dissipative effects, for example, can be studied with new tools that may have applications in a variety of disciplines. The new formalism is demonstrated by two examples of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems: an object moving in a fluid with viscous drag forces and a harmonic oscillator coupled to a dissipative environment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRB..119.8770B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRB..119.8770B"><span id="translatedtitle">Laboratory constraints on <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Beeler, N. M.; Tullis, Terry; Junger, Jenni; Kilgore, Brian; Goldsby, David</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In this study, rock friction "stick-slip" experiments are used to develop constraints on <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence. Constant rate loading of bare rock surfaces in high-quality experiments produces stick-slip recurrence that is periodic at least to second order. When the loading rate is varied, recurrence is approximately inversely proportional to loading rate. These laboratory events initiate due to a slip-rate-dependent process that also determines the size of the stress drop and, as a consequence, stress drop varies weakly but systematically with loading rate. This is especially evident in experiments where the loading rate is changed by orders of magnitude, as is thought to be the loading condition of naturally occurring, small repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> driven by afterslip, or low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> loaded by episodic slip. The experimentally observed stress drops are well described by a logarithmic dependence on recurrence interval that can be cast as a nonlinear slip predictable <span class="hlt">model</span>. The fault's rate dependence of strength is the key physical parameter. Additionally, even at constant loading rate the most reproducible laboratory recurrence is not exactly periodic, unlike existing friction recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span>. We present example laboratory catalogs that document the variance and show that in large catalogs, even at constant loading rate, stress drop and recurrence covary systematically. The origin of this covariance is largely consistent with variability of the dependence of fault strength on slip rate. Laboratory catalogs show aspects of both slip and time predictability, and successive stress drops are strongly correlated indicating a "memory" of prior slip history that extends over at least one recurrence cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhyA..465...62L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhyA..465...62L"><span id="translatedtitle">A new physical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> time interval distribution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Guoliang</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>This paper reports a new physical <span class="hlt">model</span> for time interval distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, which was obtained by borrowing the idea from the research in the time interval distribution of sand-dust storms. Of the <span class="hlt">model</span>, it was hypothesized that the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were induced by the magma movement inside the earth, and if the speed of magma ≥ threshold value Ut, the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with magnitude ≥ M occurred. With this <span class="hlt">model</span>, it was obtained that for the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with magnitude ≥ M there existed lg N(> t) = c - dt, where N was the number of time intervals longer than t; the value d decreased with M. This result was also verified by analyzing the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data from the China <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Networks Center (CENC).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044014','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044014"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> casualty <span class="hlt">models</span> within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response (PAGER) system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatality/loss computation <span class="hlt">models</span>. This article describes the development of the <span class="hlt">models</span> and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that have occurred since 2007. The empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> relies on country-specific <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss data from past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical <span class="hlt">models</span> are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750009700','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750009700"><span id="translatedtitle">Water resources planning for rivers draining into Mobile Bay. Part 2: <span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> species transport <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>April, G. C.; Liu, H. A.</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>Total coliform group bacteria were selected to expand the mathematical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> capabilities of the hydrodynamic and salinity <span class="hlt">models</span> to understand their relationship to commercial fishing ventures within bay waters and to gain a clear insight into the effect that rivers draining into the bay have on water quality conditions. Parametric observations revealed that temperature factors and river flow rate have a pronounced effect on the concentration profiles, while wind conditions showed only slight effects. An examination of coliform group loading concentrations at constant river flow rates and temperature shows these loading changes have an appreciable influence on total coliform distribution within Mobile Bay.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ArRMA.221.1285E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ArRMA.221.1285E"><span id="translatedtitle">Global Well-Posedness and Decay Rates of Strong Solutions to a <span class="hlt">Non-Conservative</span> Compressible Two-Fluid <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Evje, Steinar; Wang, Wenjun; Wen, Huanyao</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>In this paper, we consider a compressible two-fluid <span class="hlt">model</span> with constant viscosity coefficients and unequal pressure functions {P^+neq P^-}. As mentioned in the seminal work by Bresch, Desjardins, et al. (Arch Rational Mech Anal 196:599-629, 2010) for the compressible two-fluid <span class="hlt">model</span>, where {P^+=P^-} (common pressure) is used and capillarity effects are accounted for in terms of a third-order derivative of density, the case of constant viscosity coefficients cannot be handled in their settings. Besides, their analysis relies on a special choice for the density-dependent viscosity [refer also to another reference (Commun Math Phys 309:737-755, 2012) by Bresch, Huang and Li for a study of the same <span class="hlt">model</span> in one dimension but without capillarity effects]. In this work, we obtain the global solution and its optimal decay rate (in time) with constant viscosity coefficients and some smallness assumptions. In particular, capillary pressure is taken into account in the sense that {Δ P=P^+ - P^-=fneq 0} where the difference function {f} is assumed to be a strictly decreasing function near the equilibrium relative to the fluid corresponding to {P^-}. This assumption plays an key role in the analysis and appears to have an essential stabilization effect on the <span class="hlt">model</span> in question.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18958916','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18958916"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> the elements of country vulnerability to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disasters.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Asef, M R</p> <p>2008-09-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disasters. This has led to an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster vulnerability <span class="hlt">model</span> at the country scale. Data analysis based on this <span class="hlt">model</span> suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900030879&hterms=1989+earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3D1989%2Bearthquake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900030879&hterms=1989+earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3D1989%2Bearthquake"><span id="translatedtitle">Mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Carlson, J. M.; Langer, J. S.</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>The dynamic behavior of a simple mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault is studied. This <span class="hlt">model</span>, introduced originally by Burridge and Knopoff (1967), consists of an elastically coupled chain of masses in contact with a moving rough surface. The present version of the <span class="hlt">model</span> retains the full Newtonian dynamics with inertial effects and contains no externally imposed stochasticity or spatial inhomogeneity. The only nonlinear feature is a velocity-weakening stick-slip friction force between the masses and the moving surface. This system is being driven persistently toward a slipping instability and therefore exhibits noisy sequences of earthquakelike events. These events are observed in numerical simulations, and many of their features can be predicted analytically.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EJPh...37e5202A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EJPh...37e5202A"><span id="translatedtitle">Radiation reaction as a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> force</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aashish, Sandeep; Haque, Asrarul</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>We study a system of a finite size charged particle interacting with a radiation field by exploiting Hamilton’s principle for a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> system recently introduced by Galley [1]. This formulation leads to the equation of motion of the charged particle that turns out to be the same as that obtained by Jackson [2]. We show that the radiation reaction stems from the <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> part of the effective action for a charged particle. We notice that a charge interacting with a radiation field <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as a heat bath affords a way to justify that the radiation reaction is a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> force. The topic is suitable for graduate courses on advanced electrodynamics and classical theory of fields.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812568H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812568H"><span id="translatedtitle">Physically-based <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of the competition between surface uplift and erosion caused by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hovius, Niels; Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> deform Earth's surface and drive topographic growth in the frontal zones of mountain belts. They also induce widespread mass wasting, reducing relief. Preliminary studies have proposed that above a critical magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> would induce more erosion than uplift. Other parameters such as fault geometry or <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> depth were not considered yet. A new seismologically consistent <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> induced landsliding allow us to explore the importance of parameters such as <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> depth and landscape steepness. We have compared these eroded volume prediction with co-seismic surface uplift computed with Okada's deformation theory. We found that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> depth and landscape steepness to be the most important parameters compared to the fault geometry (dip and rake). In contrast with previous studies we found that largest <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will always be constructive and that only intermediate size <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw ~7) may be destructive. Moreover, with landscapes insufficiently steep or <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources sufficiently deep <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are predicted to be always constructive, whatever their magnitude. We have explored the long term topographic contribution of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences, with a Gutenberg Richter distribution or with a repeating, characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude. In these <span class="hlt">models</span>, the seismogenic layer thickness, that sets the depth range over which the series of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will distribute, replaces the individual <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source depth.We found that in the case of Gutenberg-Richter behavior, relevant for the Himalayan collision for example, the mass balance could remain negative up to Mw~8 for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with a sub-optimal uplift contribution (e.g., transpressive or gently-dipping <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>). Our results indicate that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have probably a more ambivalent role in topographic building than previously anticipated, and suggest that some fault systems may not induce average topographic growth over their locked zone during a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024443','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024443"><span id="translatedtitle">A Brownian <span class="hlt">model</span> for recurrent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Matthews, M.V.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Reasenberg, P.A.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>We construct a probability <span class="hlt">model</span> for rupture times on a recurrent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source. Adding Brownian perturbations to steady tectonic loading produces a stochastic load-state process. Rupture is assumed to occur when this process reaches a critical-failure threshold. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> relaxes the load state to a characteristic ground level and begins a new failure cycle. The load-state process is a Brownian relaxation oscillator. Intervals between events have a Brownian passage-time distribution that may serve as a temporal <span class="hlt">model</span> for time-dependent, long-term seismic forecasting. This distribution has the following noteworthy properties: (1) the probability of immediate rerupture is zero; (2) the hazard rate increases steadily from zero at t = 0 to a finite maximum near the mean recurrence time and then decreases asymptotically to a quasi-stationary level, in which the conditional probability of an event becomes time independent; and (3) the quasi-stationary failure rate is greater than, equal to, or less than the mean failure rate because the coefficient of variation is less than, equal to, or greater than 1/???2 ??? 0.707. In addition, the <span class="hlt">model</span> provides expressions for the hazard rate and probability of rupture on faults for which only a bound can be placed on the time of the last rupture. The Brownian relaxation oscillator provides a connection between observable event times and a formal state variable that reflects the macromechanics of stress and strain accumulation. Analysis of this process reveals that the quasi-stationary distance to failure has a gamma distribution, and residual life has a related exponential distribution. It also enables calculation of "interaction" effects due to external perturbations to the state, such as stress-transfer effects from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> outside the target source. The influence of interaction effects on recurrence times is transient and strongly dependent on when in the loading cycle step pertubations occur. Transient effects may</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_3 --> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034496','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034496"><span id="translatedtitle">First Results of the Regional <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Likelihood <span class="hlt">Models</span> Experiment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J.D.; Werner, M.J.; Field, E.H.; Jackson, D.D.; Jordan, T.H.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The ability to successfully predict the future behavior of a system is a strong indication that the system is well understood. Certainly many details of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> system remain obscure, but several hypotheses related to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence and seismic hazard have been proffered, and predicting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior is a worthy goal and demanded by society. Along these lines, one of the primary objectives of the Regional <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Likelihood <span class="hlt">Models</span> (RELM) working group was to formalize <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate forecasts in California. RELM members, working in small research groups, developed more than a dozen 5-year forecasts; they also outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform predictability experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Predictability (CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM predictability experiment-a truly prospective <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction effort-is underway within the U. S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to compare time-invariant 5-year <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate forecasts, is now approximately halfway to its completion. In this paper, we describe the <span class="hlt">models</span> under evaluation and present, for the first time, preliminary results of this unique experiment. While these results are preliminary-the forecasts were meant for an application of 5 years-we find interesting results: most of the <span class="hlt">models</span> are consistent with the observation and one <span class="hlt">model</span> forecasts the distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> best. We discuss the observed sample of target <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the context of historical seismicity within the testing region, highlight potential pitfalls of the current tests, and suggest plans for future revisions to experiments such as this one. ?? 2010 The Author(s).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39440','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39440"><span id="translatedtitle">Rock friction and its implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction examined via <span class="hlt">models</span> of Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Tullis, T E</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> every 20-30 years. The behavior of this <span class="hlt">model</span> prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is investigated to determine whether or not the <span class="hlt">model</span> <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the <span class="hlt">model</span>, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically <span class="hlt">modeled</span>, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the <span class="hlt">model</span> should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This could conceivably be used to determine when the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the <span class="hlt">model</span> results suggest that the most likely solution to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. Images Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 7 PMID:11607668</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11607668','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11607668"><span id="translatedtitle">Rock friction and its implications for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction examined via <span class="hlt">models</span> of Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tullis, T E</p> <p>1996-04-30</p> <p>The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> every 20-30 years. The behavior of this <span class="hlt">model</span> prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is investigated to determine whether or not the <span class="hlt">model</span> <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the <span class="hlt">model</span>, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically <span class="hlt">modeled</span>, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the <span class="hlt">model</span> should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This could conceivably be used to determine when the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the <span class="hlt">model</span> results suggest that the most likely solution to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=asbestos&pg=2&id=EJ621443','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=asbestos&pg=2&id=EJ621443"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>!</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hernandez, Hildo</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013487','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013487"><span id="translatedtitle">FORECAST <span class="hlt">MODEL</span> FOR MODERATE <span class="hlt">EARTHQUAKES</span> NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stuart, William D.; Archuleta, Ralph J.; Lindh, Allan G.</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>The paper outlines a procedure for using an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> instability <span class="hlt">model</span> and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability <span class="hlt">model</span> that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. <span class="hlt">Model</span> inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70042544','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70042544"><span id="translatedtitle">Fixed recurrence and slip <span class="hlt">models</span> better predict <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior than the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span> 1: repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The behavior of individual events in repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a <span class="hlt">model</span> with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. Given that repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span> seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span> should be rejected in favor of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound <span class="hlt">model</span> underlying the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span> offers no additional value in describing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These <span class="hlt">models</span> likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span>, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip <span class="hlt">models</span> better predict repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior than the time- and slip-predictable <span class="hlt">models</span>, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/7000006/report.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/7000006/report.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and its terrible aftereffects. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70011768','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70011768"><span id="translatedtitle">Multiple asperity <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wyss, M.; Johnston, A.C.; Klein, F.W.</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>Large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> often occur as multiple ruptures reflecting strong variations of stress level along faults. Dense instrument networks with which the volcano Kilauea is monitored provided detailed data on changes of seismic velocity, strain accumulation and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence rate before the 1975 Hawaii 7.2-mag <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. During the ???4 yr of preparation time the mainshock source volume had separated into crustal volumes of high stress levels embedded in a larger low-stress volume, showing respectively high- and low-stress precursory anomalies. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19518576','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19518576"><span id="translatedtitle">Strain waves, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and afterslip in the framework of the Frenkel-Kontorova <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gershenzon, N I; Bykov, V G; Bambakidis, G</p> <p>2009-05-01</p> <p>The one-dimensional Frenkel-Kontorova (FK) <span class="hlt">model</span>, well known from the theory of dislocations in crystal materials, is applied to the simulation of the process of nonelastic stress propagation along transform faults. Dynamic parameters of plate boundary <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as well as slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and afterslip are quantitatively described, including propagation velocity along the strike, plate boundary velocity during and after the strike, stress drop, displacement, extent of the rupture zone, and spatiotemporal distribution of stress and strain. The three fundamental speeds of plate movement, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> migration, and seismic waves are shown to be connected in framework of the continuum FK <span class="hlt">model</span>. The magnitude of the strain wave velocity is a strong (almost exponential) function of accumulated stress or strain. It changes from a few km/s during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to a few dozen km per day, month, or year during afterslip and interearthquake periods. Results of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> parameter calculation based on real data are in reasonable agreement with measured values. The distributions of aftershocks in this <span class="hlt">model</span> are consistent with the Omori law for temporal distribution and a 1/r for the spatial distributions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19830003371','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19830003371"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> research: Premonitory <span class="hlt">models</span> and the physics of crustal distortion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Whitcomb, J. H.</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>Seismic, gravity, and electrical resistivity data, believed to be most relevent to development of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> premonitory <span class="hlt">models</span> of the crust, are presented. Magnetotellurics (MT) are discussed. Radon investigations are reviewed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035100','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035100"><span id="translatedtitle">Toward a comprehensive areal <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Miles, S.B.; Keefer, D.K.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>This paper provides a review of regional-scale <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslide hazard with respect to the needs for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development. Based on this review, it sets out important research themes and suggests computing with words (CW), a methodology that includes fuzzy logic systems, as a fruitful <span class="hlt">modeling</span> methodology for addressing many of these research themes. A range of research, reviewed here, has been conducted applying CW to various aspects of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslide hazard zonation, but none facilitate comprehensive <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of all types of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides. A new comprehensive areal <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides (CAMEL) is introduced here that was developed using fuzzy logic systems. CAMEL provides an integrated framework for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> all types of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides using geographic information systems. CAMEL is designed to facilitate quantitative and qualitative representation of terrain conditions and knowledge about these conditions on the likely areal concentration of each landslide type. CAMEL is highly modifiable and adaptable; new knowledge can be easily added, while existing knowledge can be changed to better match local knowledge and conditions. As such, CAMEL should not be viewed as a complete alternative to other <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslide <span class="hlt">models</span>. CAMEL provides an open framework for incorporating other <span class="hlt">models</span>, such as Newmark's displacement method, together with previously incompatible empirical and local knowledge. ?? 2009 ASCE.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046871','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70046871"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> fail when <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> fail to reset the stress field</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Tormann, Thessa; Wiemer, Stefan; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Parkfield's regularly occurring M6 mainshocks, about every 25 years, have over two decades stoked seismologists' hopes to successfully predict an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of significant size. However, with the longest known inter-event time of 38 years, the latest M6 in the series (28 Sep 2004) did not conform to any of the applied forecast <span class="hlt">models</span>, questioning once more the predictability of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in general. Our study investigates the spatial pattern of b-values along the Parkfield segment through the seismic cycle and documents a stably stressed structure. The forecasted rate of M6 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> based on Parkfield's microseismicity b-values corresponds well to observed rates. We interpret the observed b-value stability in terms of the evolution of the stress field in that area: the M6 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> do not fully unload the stress on the fault, explaining why time recurrent <span class="hlt">models</span> fail. We present the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> as counter example, which did release a significant portion of the stress along its fault segment and yields a substantial change in b-values.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.epa.gov/natural-disasters/earthquakes','PESTICIDES'); return false;" href="https://www.epa.gov/natural-disasters/earthquakes"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/search.htm">EPA Pesticide Factsheets</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Information on this page will help you understand environmental dangers related to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, what you can do to prepare and recover. It will also help you recognize possible environmental hazards and learn what you can do to protect you and your family</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21028301','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21028301"><span id="translatedtitle">Discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for hyperbolic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> partial differential equations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Rhebergen, S. Bokhove, O. Vegt, J.J.W. van der</p> <p>2008-01-10</p> <p>We present space- and space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element (DGFEM) formulations for systems containing <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> products, such as occur in dispersed multiphase flow equations. The main criterium we pose on the weak formulation is that if the system of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> partial differential equations can be transformed into conservative form, then the formulation must reduce to that for conservative systems. Standard DGFEM formulations cannot be applied to <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems of partial differential equations. We therefore introduce the theory of weak solutions for <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> products into the DGFEM formulation leading to the new question how to define the path connecting left and right states across a discontinuity. The effect of different paths on the numerical solution is investigated and found to be small. We also introduce a new numerical flux that is able to deal with <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> products. Our scheme is applied to two different systems of partial differential equations. First, we consider the shallow water equations, where topography leads to <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> products, in which the known, possibly discontinuous, topography is formally taken as an unknown in the system. Second, we consider a simplification of a depth-averaged two-phase flow <span class="hlt">model</span> which contains more intrinsic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> products.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGeo...32..289B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JGeo...32..289B"><span id="translatedtitle">A neural-network <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bodri, Bertalan</p> <p>2001-10-01</p> <p>Changes in seismic activity patterns can occur during the process of preparation of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and such changes possibly are the most reliable long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> precursor examined to date. In the present work, seismicity rate variations in the Carpathian-Pannoman region, Hungary, and the Peloponnesos-Aegean area, Greece, have been used to develop neural network <span class="hlt">models</span> for the prediction of the origin times of large ( M⩾6.0) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Three-layer feed-forward neural network <span class="hlt">models</span> were constructed to analyse <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrences. Numerical experiments have been performed with the aim to find the optimum input set configuration which provides the best performance of a neural network. It was possible to reach sufficient training tolerance for the constructed networks (correspondence between predicted by the <span class="hlt">model</span> outputs and known from experience outputs within the limits of given error thresholds) only when the input set contained seismicity rate values for different magnitude bands (when such data appeared representative enough) and also for more than one time intervals between large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The specific structure of the network input generates the question of whether this configuration has some relationship to the physics of the strain accumulation and/or release process. The remarkably satisfactory performance of the constructed neural networks suggests the usefulness of the application of this tool in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction problems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512925V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512925V"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity using a memristor-based cellular grid</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vourkas, Ioannis; Sirakoulis, Georgios Ch.</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are absolutely among the most devastating natural phenomena because of their immediate and long-term severe consequences. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> activity <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, especially in areas known to experience frequent large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, could lead to improvements in infrastructure development that will prevent possible loss of lives and property damage. An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> process is inherently a nonlinear complex system and lately scientists have become interested in finding possible analogues of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dynamics. The majority of the <span class="hlt">models</span> developed so far were based on a mass-spring <span class="hlt">model</span> of either one or two dimensions. An early approach towards the reordering and the improvement of existing <span class="hlt">models</span> presenting the capacitor-inductor (LC) analogue, where the LC circuit resembles a mass-spring system and simulates <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity, was also published recently. Electromagnetic oscillation occurs when energy is transferred between the capacitor and the inductor. This energy transformation is similar to the mechanical oscillation that takes place in the mass-spring system. A few years ago memristor-based oscillators were used as learning circuits exposed to a train of voltage pulses that mimic environment changes. The mathematical foundation of the memristor (memory resistor), as the fourth fundamental passive element, has been expounded by Leon Chua and later extended to a more broad class of memristors, known as memristive devices and systems. This class of two-terminal passive circuit elements with memory performs both information processing and storing of computational data on the same physical platform. Importantly, the states of these devices adjust to input signals and provide analog capabilities unavailable in standard circuit elements, resulting in adaptive circuitry and providing analog parallel computation. In this work, a memristor-based cellular grid is used to <span class="hlt">model</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity. An LC contour along with a memristor is used to <span class="hlt">model</span> seismic activity</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED43E..06F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED43E..06F"><span id="translatedtitle">Visible <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>: a web-based tool for visualizing and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> InSAR <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Funning, G. J.; Cockett, R.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) is a technique for measuring the deformation of the ground using satellite radar data. One of the principal applications of this method is in the study of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; in the past 20 years over 70 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have been studied in this way, and forthcoming satellite missions promise to enable the routine and timely study of events in the future. Despite the utility of the technique and its widespread adoption by the research community, InSAR does not feature in the teaching curricula of most university geoscience departments. This is, we believe, due to a lack of accessibility to software and data. Existing tools for the visualization and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of interferograms are often research-oriented, command line-based and/or prohibitively expensive. Here we present a new web-based interactive tool for comparing real InSAR data with simple elastic <span class="hlt">models</span>. The overall design of this tool was focused on ease of access and use. This tool should allow interested nonspecialists to gain a feel for the use of such data and greatly facilitate integration of InSAR into upper division geoscience courses, giving students practice in comparing actual data to <span class="hlt">modeled</span> results. The tool, provisionally named 'Visible <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>', uses web-based technologies to instantly render the displacement field that would be observable using InSAR for a given fault location, geometry, orientation, and slip. The user can adjust these 'source parameters' using a simple, clickable interface, and see how these affect the resulting <span class="hlt">model</span> interferogram. By visually matching the <span class="hlt">model</span> interferogram to a real <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> interferogram (processed separately and included in the web tool) a user can produce their own estimates of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>'s source parameters. Once satisfied with the fit of their <span class="hlt">models</span>, users can submit their results and see how they compare with the distribution of all other contributed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>, as well as the mean and median</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoJI.202...17R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoJI.202...17R"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantifying variability in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> using multidimensional scaling: application to the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Mai, P. Martin; Genton, Marc G.; Zhang, Ling; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Finite-fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversion is an ill-posed inverse problem leading to non-unique solutions. In addition, various fault parametrizations and input data may have been used by different researchers for the same <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Such variability leads to large intra-event variability in the inferred rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. One way to understand this problem is to develop robust metrics to quantify <span class="hlt">model</span> variability. We propose a Multi Dimensional Scaling (MDS) approach to compare rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> quantitatively. We consider normalized squared and grey-scale metrics that reflect the variability in the location, intensity and geometry of the source parameters. We test the approach on two-dimensional random fields generated using a von Kármán autocorrelation function and varying its spectral parameters. The spread of points in the MDS solution indicates different levels of <span class="hlt">model</span> variability. We observe that the normalized squared metric is insensitive to variability of spectral parameters, whereas the grey-scale metric is sensitive to small-scale changes in geometry. From this benchmark, we formulate a similarity scale to rank the rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. As case studies, we examine inverted <span class="hlt">models</span> from the Source Inversion Validation (SIV) exercise and published <span class="hlt">models</span> of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, allowing us to test our approach for a case with a known reference <span class="hlt">model</span> and one with an unknown true solution. The normalized squared and grey-scale metrics are respectively sensitive to the overall intensity and the extension of the three classes of slip (very large, large, and low). Additionally, we observe that a three-dimensional MDS configuration is preferable for <span class="hlt">models</span> with large variability. We also find that the <span class="hlt">models</span> for the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> derived from tsunami data and their corresponding predictions cluster with a systematic deviation from other <span class="hlt">models</span>. We demonstrate the stability of the MDS point-cloud using a number of realizations and jackknife tests, for</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoJI.200..185Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoJI.200..185Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip <span class="hlt">models</span> with the spatial prediction comparison test</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Ling; Mai, P. Martin; Thingbaijam, Kiran K. S.; Razafindrakoto, Hoby N. T.; Genton, Marc G.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> inferred from inversions of geophysical and/or geodetic data exhibit remarkable variability due to uncertainties in <span class="hlt">modelling</span> assumptions, the use of different inversion algorithms, or variations in data selection and data processing. A robust statistical comparison of different rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> obtained for a single <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is needed to quantify the intra-event variability, both for benchmark exercises and for real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The same approach may be useful to characterize (dis-)similarities in events that are typically grouped into a common class of events (e.g. moderate-size crustal strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> or tsunamigenic large subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>). For this purpose, we examine the performance of the spatial prediction comparison test (SPCT), a statistical test developed to compare spatial (random) fields by means of a chosen loss function that describes an error relation between a 2-D field (`<span class="hlt">model</span>') and a reference <span class="hlt">model</span>. We implement and calibrate the SPCT approach for a suite of synthetic 2-D slip distributions, generated as spatial random fields with various characteristics, and then apply the method to results of a benchmark inversion exercise with known solution. We find the SPCT to be sensitive to different spatial correlations lengths, and different heterogeneity levels of the slip distributions. The SPCT approach proves to be a simple and effective tool for ranking the slip <span class="hlt">models</span> with respect to a reference <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18789709','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18789709"><span id="translatedtitle">Artificial neural network <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction with radon monitoring.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Külahci, Fatih; Inceöz, Murat; Doğru, Mahmut; Aksoy, Ercan; Baykara, Oktay</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Apart from the linear monitoring studies concerning the relationship between radon and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, an artificial neural networks (ANNs) <span class="hlt">model</span> approach is presented starting out from non-linear changes of the eight different parameters during the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. A three-layer Levenberg-Marquardt feedforward learning algorithm is used to <span class="hlt">model</span> the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction process in the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS). The proposed ANN system employs individual training strategy with fixed-weight and supervised <span class="hlt">models</span> leading to estimations. The average relative error between the magnitudes of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> acquired by ANN and measured data is about 2.3%. The relative error between the test and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data varies between 0% and 12%. In addition, the factor analysis was applied on all data and the <span class="hlt">model</span> output values to see the statistical variation. The total variance of 80.18% was explained with four factors by this analysis. Consequently, it can be concluded that ANN approach is a potential alternative to other <span class="hlt">models</span> with complex mathematical operations.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_4 --> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PhRvL..89n2502Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PhRvL..89n2502Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Isobaric Multiplet Yrast Energies and Isospin <span class="hlt">Nonconserving</span> Forces</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zuker, A. P.; Lenzi, S. M.; Martínez-Pinedo, G.; Poves, A.</p> <p>2002-09-01</p> <p>The isovector and isotensor energy differences between yrast states of isobaric multiplets in the lower half of the pf region are quantitatively reproduced in a shell <span class="hlt">model</span> context. The isospin <span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> nuclear interactions are found to be at least as important as the Coulomb potential. Their isovector and isotensor channels are dominated by J=2 and J=0 pairing terms, respectively. The results are sensitive to the radii of the states, whose evolution along the yrast band can be accurately followed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70003714','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70003714"><span id="translatedtitle">An empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> for global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatality estimation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We analyzed mortality rates of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response (PAGER) system. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/8899','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/8899"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the behavior of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> base-isolated building.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Coveney, V. A.; Jamil, S.; Johnson, D. E.; Kulak, R. F.; Uras, R. A.</p> <p>1997-11-26</p> <p>Protecting a structure against <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> excitation by supporting it on laminated elastomeric bearings has become a widely accepted practice. The ability to perform accurate simulation of the system, including FEA of the bearings, would be desirable--especially for key installations. In this paper attempts to <span class="hlt">model</span> the behavior of elastomeric <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> bearings are outlined. Attention is focused on <span class="hlt">modeling</span> highly-filled, low-modulus, high-damping elastomeric isolator systems; comparisons are made between standard triboelastic solid <span class="hlt">model</span> predictions and test results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000PhDT.......130T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000PhDT.......130T"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion in the frequency domain</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thrainsson, Hjortur</p> <p></p> <p>In recent years, the utilization of time histories of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion has grown considerably in the design and analysis of civil structures. It is very unlikely, however, that recordings of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion will be available for all sites and conditions of interest. Hence, there is a need for efficient methods for the simulation and spatial interpolation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion. In addition to providing estimates of the ground motion at a site using data from adjacent recording stations, spatially interpolated ground motions can also be used in design and analysis of long-span structures, such as bridges and pipelines, where differential movement is important. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology for rapid generation of horizontal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion at any site for a given region, based on readily available source, path and site characteristics, or (sparse) recordings. The research includes two main topics: (i) the simulation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion at a given site, and (ii) the spatial interpolation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion. In topic (i), <span class="hlt">models</span> are developed to simulate acceleration time histories using the inverse discrete Fourier transform. The Fourier phase differences, defined as the difference in phase angle between adjacent frequency components, are simulated conditional on the Fourier amplitude. Uniformly processed recordings from recent California <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are used to validate the simulation <span class="hlt">models</span>, as well as to develop prediction formulas for the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters. The <span class="hlt">models</span> developed in this research provide rapid simulation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion over a wide range of magnitudes and distances, but they are not intended to replace more robust geophysical <span class="hlt">models</span>. In topic (ii), a <span class="hlt">model</span> is developed in which Fourier amplitudes and Fourier phase angles are interpolated separately. A simple dispersion relationship is included in the phase angle interpolation. The accuracy of the interpolation</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016DDA....4710303T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016DDA....4710303T"><span id="translatedtitle">Slimplectic Integrators: Variational Integrators for <span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span> systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsang, David</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>Symplectic integrators are widely used for long-term integration of conservative astrophysical problems due to their ability to preserve the constants of motion; however, they cannot in general be applied in the presence of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> interactions. Here we present the “slimplectic” integrator, a new type of numerical integrator that shares many of the benefits of traditional symplectic integrators yet is applicable to general <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems. We utilize a fixed-time-step variational integrator formalism applied to a newly developed principle of stationary <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> action (Galley, 2013, Galley et al 2014). As a result, the generalized momenta and energy (Noether current) evolutions are well-tracked. We discuss several example systems, including damped harmonic oscillators, Poynting-Robertson drag, and gravitational radiation reaction, by utilizing our new publicly available code to demonstrate the slimplectic integrator algorithm. Slimplectic integrators are well-suited for integrations of systems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effects play an important role in the long-term dynamical evolution. As such they are particularly appropriate for cosmological or celestial N-body dynamics problems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> interactions, e.g., gas interactions or dissipative tides, can play an important role.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812412Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1812412Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessing a 3D smoothed seismicity <span class="hlt">model</span> of induced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Gischig, Valentin; Wiemer, Stefan</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>As more energy exploration and extraction efforts cause <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, it becomes increasingly important to control induced seismicity. Risk management schemes must be improved and should ultimately be based on near-real-time forecasting systems. With this goal in mind, we propose a test bench to evaluate <span class="hlt">models</span> of induced seismicity based on metrics developed by the CSEP community. To illustrate the test bench, we consider a <span class="hlt">model</span> based on the so-called seismogenic index and a rate decay; to produce three-dimensional forecasts, we smooth past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in space and time. We explore four variants of this <span class="hlt">model</span> using the Basel 2006 and Soultz-sous-Forêts 2004 datasets to make short-term forecasts, test their consistency, and rank the <span class="hlt">model</span> variants. Our results suggest that such a smoothed seismicity <span class="hlt">model</span> is useful for forecasting induced seismicity within three days, and giving more weight to recent events improves forecast performance. Moreover, the location of the largest induced <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is forecast well by this <span class="hlt">model</span>. Despite the good spatial performance, the <span class="hlt">model</span> does not estimate the seismicity rate well: it frequently overestimates during stimulation and during the early post-stimulation period, and it systematically underestimates around shut-in. In this presentation, we also describe a robust estimate of information gain, a modification that can also benefit forecast experiments involving tectonic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S42B..03P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S42B..03P"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> Uncertainty, <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazard, and the WGCEP-2002 Forecast</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Page, M. T.; Carlson, J. M.</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Model</span> uncertainty is prevalent in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) because the true mechanism generating risk is unknown. While it is well-understood how to incorporate parameter uncertainty in PSHA, <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty is more difficult to incorporate due to the high degree of dependence between different <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span>. We find that the method used by the 2002 Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities (WG02) to combine the probability distributions given by multiple <span class="hlt">models</span> has several adverse effects on their result. In particular, taking a linear combination of the various <span class="hlt">models</span> ignores issues of <span class="hlt">model</span> dependence and leads to large uncertainties in the final hazard estimate. Furthermore, choosing <span class="hlt">model</span> weights based on data can systematically bias the final probability distribution. The weighting scheme of the WG02 report also depends upon an arbitrary ordering of <span class="hlt">models</span>. In addition to analyzing current statistical problems, we present alternative methods for rigorously incorporating <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty into PSHA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1245421','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1245421"><span id="translatedtitle">Computer program for generating kinematic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> using Irikura and Miyake's method.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Pitarka, Arben</p> <p>2016-02-10</p> <p>GEN_SRF_4 is a computer program for generation kinematic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> for use in ground motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and simulations of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The output is an ascii SRF formatted file containing kinematic rupture parameters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG51A1196D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG51A1196D"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> nucleation mechanisms and periodic loading: <span class="hlt">Models</span>, Experiments, and Observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dahmen, K.; Brinkman, B.; Tsekenis, G.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Uhl, J.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The project has two main goals: (a) Improve the understanding of how <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are nucleated ¬ with specific focus on seismic response to periodic stresses (such as tidal or seasonal variations) (b) Use the results of (a) to infer on the possible existence of precursory activity before large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A number of mechanisms have been proposed for the nucleation of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, including frictional nucleation (Dieterich 1987) and fracture (Lockner 1999, Beeler 2003). We study the relation between the observed rates of triggered seismicity, the period and amplitude of cyclic loadings and whether the observed seismic activity in response to periodic stresses can be used to identify the correct nucleation mechanism (or combination of mechanisms). A generalized version of the Ben-Zion and Rice <span class="hlt">model</span> for disordered fault zones and results from related recent studies on dislocation dynamics and magnetization avalanches in slowly magnetized materials are used in the analysis (Ben-Zion et al. 2010; Dahmen et al. 2009). The analysis makes predictions for the statistics of macroscopic failure events of sheared materials in the presence of added cyclic loading, as a function of the period, amplitude, and noise in the system. The employed tools include analytical methods from statistical physics, the theory of phase transitions, and numerical simulations. The results will be compared to laboratory experiments and observations. References: Beeler, N.M., D.A. Lockner (2003). Why <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides: effects of periodic stress on the rate and probability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. J. Geophys. Res.-Solid Earth 108, 2391-2407. Ben-Zion, Y. (2008). Collective Behavior of <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and Faults: Continuum-Discrete Transitions, Evolutionary Changes and Corresponding Dynamic Regimes, Rev. Geophysics, 46, RG4006, doi:10.1029/2008RG000260. Ben-Zion, Y., Dahmen, K. A. and J. T. Uhl (2010). A unifying phase diagram for the dynamics of sheared solids</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S22B..05W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S22B..05W"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of shallow fault creep triggered by nearby <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wei, M.; Liu, Y.; McGuire, J. J.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The 2010 El Mayor-Cucapha Mw 7.2 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is the largest <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that strikes southern California in the last 18 years. It has triggered shallow fault creep on many faults in Salton Trough, Southern California, making it at least the 8th time in the last 42 years that a local or regional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> has done so. However, the triggering mechanism of fault creep and its implications to seismic hazard and fault mechanics is still poorly understood. For example, what determines the relative importance of static triggering and dynamic triggering of fault creep? What can we learn about the local frictional properties and normal stress from the triggering of fault creep? To understand the triggering mechanism and constrain fault frictional properties, we simulate the triggered fault creep on the Superstition Hills Fault (SHF), Salton Trough, Southern California. We use realistic static and dynamic shaking due to nearby <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as stress perturbations to a 2D (in a 3D medium) planar fault <span class="hlt">model</span> with rate-and-state frictional property variations both in depth and along strike. Unlike many previous studies, we focus on the simulation of triggered shallow fault creep instead of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Our fault <span class="hlt">model</span> can reproduce the triggering process, by static, dynamic , and combined stress perturbation. Preliminary results show that the magnitude of perturbation relative to the original stress level is an important parameter. In the static case, perturbation of 1% of normal stress trigger delayed fault creep whereas 10% of normal stress generate instantaneous creep. In the dynamic case, a change of two times in magnitude of perturbation can result in difference of triggered creep in several orders of magnitude. We explore combined triggering with different ratio of static and dynamic perturbation. The timing of triggering in a <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle is also important. With measurements on triggered creep on the SHF, we constrain local stress level and frictional parameters, which</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157353','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157353"><span id="translatedtitle">Dynamic <span class="hlt">models</span> of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and tsunami offshore Ventura, California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Kenny J. Ryan,; Geist, Eric L.; Barall, Michael; David D. Oglesby,</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to <span class="hlt">model</span> low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> results in an average stress drop of 6 MPa, an average fault slip of 7.4 m, and a moment magnitude of 7.7, consistent with regional paleoseismic data. Our corresponding tsunami <span class="hlt">model</span> uses final seafloor displacement from the rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> inundation in the Ventura area is significantly greater than that indicated by state of California's current reference inundation line.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1730b0005W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1730b0005W"><span id="translatedtitle">Prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with the identification of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source polarity mechanism through the focal classification using ANFIS and PCA technique</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Setyonegoro, W.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>Incidence of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster has caused casualties and material in considerable amounts. This research has purposes to predictability the return period of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with the identification of the mechanism of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> which in case study area in Sumatra. To predict <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> which training data of the historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is using ANFIS technique. In this technique the historical data set compiled into intervals of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence daily average in a year. Output to be obtained is a <span class="hlt">model</span> return period <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events daily average in a year. Return period <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> that have been learning by ANFIS, then performed the polarity recognition through image recognition techniques on the focal sphere using principal component analysis PCA method. The results, <span class="hlt">model</span> predicted a return period <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events for the average monthly return period showed a correlation coefficient 0.014562.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=fluid+AND+mechanics&pg=5&id=EJ755173','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=fluid+AND+mechanics&pg=5&id=EJ755173"><span id="translatedtitle">The Common Forces: Conservative or <span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Keeports, David</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Of the forces commonly encountered when solving problems in Newtonian mechanics, introductory texts usually limit illustrations of the definitions of conservative and <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> forces to gravity, spring forces, kinetic friction and fluid resistance. However, at the expense of very little class time, the question of whether each of the common…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=history+AND+atomic+AND+theory&pg=4&id=EJ241200','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=history+AND+atomic+AND+theory&pg=4&id=EJ241200"><span id="translatedtitle">Justification of a "Crucial" Experiment: Parity <span class="hlt">Nonconservation</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Franklin, Allan; Smokler, Howard</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>Presents history, nature of evidence evaluated, and philosophical questions to justify the view that experiments on parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> were "crucial" experiments in the sense that they decided unambiguously and within a short period of time for the appropriate scientific community, between two or more competing theories or classes of theories.…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040306&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DEarthquake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040306&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DEarthquake"><span id="translatedtitle">Combined GPS and InSAR <span class="hlt">models</span> of postseismic deformation from the Northridge <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Peltzer, G.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Models</span> of combined Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data collected in the region of the Northridge <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PApGe.tmp..180L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PApGe.tmp..180L"><span id="translatedtitle">Stochastic <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario <span class="hlt">models</span> to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">modeling</span> method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation <span class="hlt">models</span> estimated from dynamically derived <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events (M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation <span class="hlt">models</span> in stochastic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario <span class="hlt">models</span> and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988JGR....93.6255R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988JGR....93.6255R"><span id="translatedtitle">A physical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: 2. Application to southern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rundle, John B.</p> <p>1988-06-01</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to apply ideas developed in a previous paper to the construction of a detailed <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dynamics in southern California. The basis upon which the approach is formulated is that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are perturbations on, or more specifically fluctuations about, the long-term motions of the plates. This concept is made mathematically precise by means of a "fluctuation hypothesis," which states that all physical quantities associated with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be expressed as integral expansions in a fluctuating quantity called the "offset phase." While in general, the frictional stick-slip properties of the complex, interacting faults should properly come out of the underlying physics, a simplification is made here, and a simple, spatially varying friction law is assumed. Together with the complex geometry of the major active faults, an assumed, spatially varying Earth rheology, the average rates of long-term offsets on all the major faults, and the friction coefficients, one can generate synthetic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> histories for comparison to the real data. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all of the major faults which are similar to data obtained by geologic trenching studies. However, the patterns of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence are evidently chaotic (in the technical sense), meaning that although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change, and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurrance intervals of a hundred years or so. In the synthetic slip histories for the <span class="hlt">model</span> faults a series of events on the Big Bend is identified which resembles the pattern of events leading up to the 1857 Fort Tejon <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. One of the events is similar enough to the 1857 event that it is taken as a <span class="hlt">model</span> of that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The horizontal surface deformation 130 years after the <span class="hlt">model</span> event is calculated for comparison to the data observed by various</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175400','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175400"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence: Implications for geodynamics and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence; (2) the Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence and provide constraints on where <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9147Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9147Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Meeting the Challenge of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zschau, J.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk <span class="hlt">models</span> anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39443','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39443"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip complexity in dynamic <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Langer, J S; Carlson, J M; Myers, C R; Shaw, B E</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>We summarize recent evidence that <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults with dynamically unstable friction laws but no externally imposed heterogeneities can exhibit slip complexity. Two <span class="hlt">models</span> are described here. The first is a one-dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> with velocity-weakening stick-slip friction; the second is a two-dimensional elastodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> with slip-weakening friction. Both exhibit small-event complexity and chaotic sequences of large characteristic events. The large events in both <span class="hlt">models</span> are composed of Heaton pulses. We argue that the key ingredients of these <span class="hlt">models</span> are reasonably accurate representations of the properties of real faults. PMID:11607671</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_5 --> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7188857','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7188857"><span id="translatedtitle">Physical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, 2. Application to southern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Rundle, J.B.</p> <p>1988-06-10</p> <p>The purpose of this paper is to apply ideas developed in a previous paper to the construction of a detailed <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dynamics in southern California. The basis upon which the approach is formulated is that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are perturbations on, or more specifically fluctuations about, the long-term motions of the plates. This concept is made mathematically precise by means of a ''fluctuation hypothesis,'' which states that all physical quantities associated with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be expressed as integral expansions in a fluctuating quantity called the ''offset phase.'' While in general, the frictional stick-slip properties of the complex, interacting faults should properly come out of the underlying physics, a simplification is made here, and a simple, spatially varying friction law is assumed. Together with the complex geometry of the major active faults, an assumed, spatially varying Earth rheology, the average rates of long-term offsets on all the major faults, and the friction coefficients, one can generate synthetic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> histories for comparison to the real data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRB..116.5204B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRB..116.5204B"><span id="translatedtitle">Stochastic <span class="hlt">models</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> triggering of volcanic eruptions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bebbington, M. S.; Marzocchi, W.</p> <p>2011-05-01</p> <p>Many accounts, anecdotal and statistical, have noted a causal effect on volcanic eruptions from large, not too distant, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Physical mechanisms have been proposed that explain how small static stress changes, or larger transient dynamic stress changes, can have observable effects on a volcano. While only ˜0.4% of eruptions appear to be directly triggered within a few days of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, these physical mechanisms also imply the possibility of delayed triggering. In the few regional studies conducted, data issues (selection bias and scarcity, inhomogeneity, and cleaning of data) have tended to obscure any clear signal. Using a perturbation technique, we first show that the Indonesian volcanic region possesses no statistically significant coupling for the region as a whole. We then augment a number of point process <span class="hlt">models</span> for eruption onsets by a time-, distance-, and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude-dependent triggering term and apply this to the individual volcanoes. This method weighs both positive and negative (i.e., absence of eruptions following an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>) evidence of triggering. Of 35 volcanoes with at least three eruptions in the study region, seven (Marapi, Talang, Krakatau, Slamet, Ebulobo, Lewotobi, and Ruang) show statistical evidence of triggering over varying temporal and spatial scales, but only after the internal state of the volcano is accounted for. This confirms that triggering is fundamentally a property of the internal magma plumbing of the volcano in question and that any <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can potentially "advance the clock" toward a future eruption. This is further supported by the absence of any dependence on triggering of the eruption size.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70017331','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70017331"><span id="translatedtitle">Desk-top <span class="hlt">model</span> buildings for dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> response demonstrations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Brady, A. Gerald</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Models</span> of buildings that illustrate dynamic resonance behavior when excited by hand are designed and built. Two types of buildings are considered, one with columns stronger than floors, the other with columns weaker than floors. Combinations and variations of these two types are possible. Floor masses and column stiffnesses are chosen in order that the frequency of the second mode is approximately five cycles per second, so that first and second modes can be excited manually. The <span class="hlt">models</span> are expected to be resonated by hand by schoolchildren or persons unfamiliar with the dynamic resonant response of tall buildings, to gain an understanding of structural behavior during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Among other things, this experience will develop a level of confidence in the builder and experimenter should they be in a high-rise building during an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, sensing both these resonances and other violent shaking.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/386961','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/386961"><span id="translatedtitle">Single-particle parity-<span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> matrix elements in {sup 207}Pb</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Komives, A.; Knott, J.E.; Leuschner, M.; Szymanski, J.J.; Bowman, J.D.; Jamrisk, D.</p> <p>1993-10-01</p> <p>Measurements of the helicity dependence of neutron scattering off of heavy nuclei by the TRIPLE collaboration have yielded multiple parity-<span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> asymmetries. The asymmetries are predominantly positive, in contradiction to the zero average asymmetry predicted by the statistical <span class="hlt">model</span> of neutron- nucleus scattering. Theoretical calculations that explain the non-zero average asymmetry require single-particle parity- <span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> matrix elements 10-100 times larger than those predicted by meson exchange <span class="hlt">models</span>. We are determining the single-particle parity <span class="hlt">non-conserving</span> mixing in {sup 207}Pb by measuring the circular polarization of the 1.064 MeV {gamma} ray. The experiment uses a transmission polarimeter and a fast data acquisition system. Initial results are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S33C4538S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S33C4538S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning Beta Users: Java, <span class="hlt">Modeling</span>, and Mobile Apps</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. A demonstration <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of <span class="hlt">models</span> and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S23A0287H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S23A0287H"><span id="translatedtitle">Comparison of Short-term and Long-term <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Forecast <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Southern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>Many <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> interactions thus provide a way to improve <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting significantly. We have developed a <span class="hlt">model</span> to estimate daily <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Sequence <span class="hlt">model</span> [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to <span class="hlt">model</span> the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The <span class="hlt">model</span> also assumes that all <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term <span class="hlt">model</span> decreases the uncertainty of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence by a factor of about 10.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH43C..08P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH43C..08P"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Lights: Time-dependent Earth Surface - Ionosphere Coupling <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pasko, V. P.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Co-seismic luminescence, commonly referred to as <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> lights (EQLs), is an atmospheric luminous phenomenon occurring during strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and lasting from a fraction of a second to a few minutes [e.g., Derr, J. S., Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 63, 2177, 1973; St-Laurent, F., et al., Phys. Chem. Earth, 31, 305, 2006; Herauld and Lira, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1025, 2011]. Laboratory experiments of Freund, F. T., et al. [JGR, 105, 11001, 2000; JASTP, 71, 1824, 2009, and references therein] demonstrate that rocks subjected to stress force can generate electric currents. During <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> these currents can deliver significant amounts of net positive charge to the ground-air interface leading to enhancements in the electric field and corona discharges around ground objects [Freund et al., 2009]. The eyewitness reports [Herauld and Lira, 2011] indicate similarities of the blue glow observed during EQLs to St. Elmo's fire observed during thunderstorms around wing tips of airplanes or around the tall masts of sailing ships [e.g., Wescott, E.M., et al., GRL, 23, 3687, 1996]. Recent work indicates that the vertical currents induced in the stressed rock can map to ionospheric altitudes and create 10s of % variations in the total electron content in the Earth's ionosphere above the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> active region [Kuo, C. L., et al., JGR, 116, A10317, 2011]. The magnitudes of the vertical currents estimated by Kuo et al. [2011] based on work by Freund et al. [2009] range from 0.01 to 10 μA/m2. In this talk we report results from a new time-dependent <span class="hlt">model</span> allowing to calculate currents induced in the ambient atmosphere and corona currents under application of vertical stressed rock currents with arbitrary time variation. We will report test results documenting the <span class="hlt">model</span> performance under conditions: (1) relaxation toward the classic global electric circuit conditions in fair weather regions when ionosphere is maintained at 300 kV with respect to the ground; (2</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4940731','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4940731"><span id="translatedtitle">Optimized volume <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-triggered landslides</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Xu, Chong; Xu, Xiwei; Shen, Lingling; Yao, Qi; Tan, Xibin; Kang, Wenjun; Ma, Siyuan; Wu, Xiyan; Cai, Juntao; Gao, Mingxing; Li, Kang</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In this study, we proposed three optimized <span class="hlt">models</span> for calculating the total volume of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. First, we calculated the volume of each deposit of 1,415 landslides triggered by the quake based on pre- and post-quake DEMs in 20 m resolution. The samples were used to fit the conventional landslide “volume-area” power law relationship and the 3 optimized <span class="hlt">models</span> we proposed, respectively. Two data fitting methods, i.e. log-transformed-based linear and original data-based nonlinear least square, were employed to the 4 <span class="hlt">models</span>. Results show that original data-based nonlinear least square combining with an optimized <span class="hlt">model</span> considering length, width, height, lithology, slope, peak ground acceleration, and slope aspect shows the best performance. This <span class="hlt">model</span> was subsequently applied to the database of landslides triggered by the quake except for two largest ones with known volumes. It indicates that the total volume of the 196,007 landslides is about 1.2 × 1010 m3 in deposit materials and 1 × 1010 m3 in source areas, respectively. The result from the relationship of quake magnitude and entire landslide volume related to individual <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is much less than that from this study, which reminds us the necessity to update the power-law relationship. PMID:27404212</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5033007','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5033007"><span id="translatedtitle">Mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> of precursory source processes for some large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dmorvska, R.; Li, V.C.</p> <p>1982-04-01</p> <p>A mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> is presented of precursory source processes for some large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along plate boundaries. It is assumed that the pre-seismic period consists of the upward progression of a zone of slip from lower portions of the lithosphere towards the Earth's surface. The slip front is blocked by local asperities of different size and strength; these asperities may be zones of real alteration of inherent strength, or instead may be zones which are currently stronger due to a local slowdown of a basically rate-dependent frictional response. Such blocking by a single, large asperity, or array of asperities, produces quiescence over a segment of plate boundary, until gradual increase of the stress concentration forces the slip zone through the blocked region at one end of the gap, thus nucleating a seismic rupture that propogates upwards and towards the other end. This <span class="hlt">model</span> is proposed to explain certain distinctive seismicity patterns that have been observed before large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, notably quiescence over the gap zone followed by clustering at its end prior to the main event. A discussion of mechanical factors influencing the process is presented and some introductory <span class="hlt">modelling</span>, performed with the use of a generalized Elsasser <span class="hlt">model</span> for lithospheric plates and the ''line spring'' <span class="hlt">model</span> for part-through flaws (slip zones) at plate boundaries, is outlined briefly.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27404212','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27404212"><span id="translatedtitle">Optimized volume <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-triggered landslides.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Xu, Chong; Xu, Xiwei; Shen, Lingling; Yao, Qi; Tan, Xibin; Kang, Wenjun; Ma, Siyuan; Wu, Xiyan; Cai, Juntao; Gao, Mingxing; Li, Kang</p> <p>2016-07-12</p> <p>In this study, we proposed three optimized <span class="hlt">models</span> for calculating the total volume of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. First, we calculated the volume of each deposit of 1,415 landslides triggered by the quake based on pre- and post-quake DEMs in 20 m resolution. The samples were used to fit the conventional landslide "volume-area" power law relationship and the 3 optimized <span class="hlt">models</span> we proposed, respectively. Two data fitting methods, i.e. log-transformed-based linear and original data-based nonlinear least square, were employed to the 4 <span class="hlt">models</span>. Results show that original data-based nonlinear least square combining with an optimized <span class="hlt">model</span> considering length, width, height, lithology, slope, peak ground acceleration, and slope aspect shows the best performance. This <span class="hlt">model</span> was subsequently applied to the database of landslides triggered by the quake except for two largest ones with known volumes. It indicates that the total volume of the 196,007 landslides is about 1.2 × 10(10) m(3) in deposit materials and 1 × 10(10) m(3) in source areas, respectively. The result from the relationship of quake magnitude and entire landslide volume related to individual <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is much less than that from this study, which reminds us the necessity to update the power-law relationship.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10181241','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10181241"><span id="translatedtitle">Limits on CP <span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> interactions from electric dipole moments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Haxton, W.C.</p> <p>1994-09-01</p> <p>I discuss bounds on CP-<span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> (CPNC) and parity-<span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> (PNC) hadronic interactions that result from measurements of atomic electric dipole moments. In most <span class="hlt">models</span> of hadronic CPNC, the nuclear edm arises primarily from the polarization of the ground state by the CPNC PNC NN interaction, rather than from the edms of valence nucleons. When the atom is placed in an external field, the nucleus is fully shielded apart from nuclear finite size effects and relativistic corrections arising from hyperfine interactions, so that careful atomic calculations must be performed to deduce the residual sensitivity to the nuclear edm. I describe these shielding effects qualitatively, and present results from more detailed calculations. Atomic limits, when translated into effective bounds on the neutron edm, have now reached sensitivities that are comparable to direct neutron edm limits. I also discuss limits that can be extracted on CPNC parity-conserving (PC) hadronic interactions. Such interactions can generate atomic edms when combined with weak radiative corrections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JESS..126....4S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JESS..126....4S"><span id="translatedtitle">3-D GRACE gravity <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sastry, Rambhatla G.; Sonker, Mahendra K.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The GRACE mission has contributed to the seismic characterization of major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in offshore regions of the world. Here, we isolate satellite gravity signal (μGal range) for the Japan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> of 2011 using a difference method. Contrary to the existing gravity <span class="hlt">models</span>, we propose a unit vertical pyramid based five-layer 3-D thrust fault <span class="hlt">model</span>, which extends to the hypocenter and honors the ocean water layer and sea floor upheaval also. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> partly uses existing seismological information (hypocenter depth of 32 km, rupture length of 300 km and vertical slip of 4 m), provides a snapshot of episodic subduction of the Pacific Plate below the Atlantic Plate and its gravity response closely matches the observed gravity (RMS error of 3.4012×10-13μGal), fully accounting for co-seismic mass redistribution including sea surface deformation. Our inferred rupture length, rupture velocity, average seismic moment magnitude and momentum, respectively, are 300 km, 4.49 km/s, 1.152×1021-1.8816×1021 N m and 2.319×106 GNs, which fairly agree with the literature. Further, our <span class="hlt">model</span> inferred momentum at the sea floor corresponds to an area pulse that led to Tsunami generation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21544621','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21544621"><span id="translatedtitle">Calculation of parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in neutral ytterbium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dzuba, V. A.; Flambaum, V. V.</p> <p>2011-04-15</p> <p>We use configuration interaction and many-body perturbation theory techniques to calculate spin-independent and spin-dependent parts of the parity-<span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> amplitudes of the transitions between the 6s{sup 2} {sup 1}S{sub 0} ground state and the 6s5d {sup 3}D{sub 1} excited state of {sup 171}Yb and {sup 173}Yb. The results are presented in a form convenient for extracting spin-dependent interaction constants (such as anapole moment) from the measurements.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016FrES...10..740Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016FrES...10..740Y"><span id="translatedtitle">Newmark displacement <span class="hlt">model</span> for landslides induced by the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yuan, Renmao; Deng, Qinghai; Cunningham, Dickson; Han, Zhujun; Zhang, Dongli; Zhang, Bingliang</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Predicting approximate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslide displacements is helpful for assessing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards and designing slopes to withstand future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking. In this work, the basic methodology outlined by Jibson (1993) is applied to derive the Newmark displacement of landslides based on strong ground-motion recordings during the 2013 Lushan Ms 7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. By analyzing the relationships between Arias intensity, Newmark displacement, and critical acceleration of the Lushan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, formulas of the Jibson93 and its modified <span class="hlt">models</span> are shown to be applicable to the Lushan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dataset. Different empirical equations with new fitting coefficients for estimating Newmark displacement are then developed for comparative analysis. The results indicate that a modified <span class="hlt">model</span> has a better goodness of fit and a smaller estimation error for the Jibson93 formula. It indicates that the modified <span class="hlt">model</span> may be more reasonable for the dataset of the Lushan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The analysis of results also suggests that a global equation is not ideally suited to directly estimate the Newmark displacements of landslides induced by one specific <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Rather it is empirically better to perform a new multivariate regression analysis to derive new coefficients for the global equation using the dataset of the specific <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The results presented in this paper can be applied to a future co-seismic landslide hazard assessment to inform reconstruction efforts in the area affected by the 2013 Lushan Ms 7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, and for future disaster prevention and mitigation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U33A..04A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U33A..04A"><span id="translatedtitle">Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> in Relation to <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Cycle and Dynamic Rupture <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> provide new opportunities to evaluate <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle <span class="hlt">models</span> that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These <span class="hlt">models</span> produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C21A0723S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C21A0723S"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of glacial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> induced by iceberg capsize</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sergeant, A.; Yastrebov, V.; Castelnau, O.; Mangeney, A.; Stutzmann, E.; Montagner, J. P.; Burton, J. C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Glacial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is a class of seismic events of magnitude up to 5, occurring primarily in Greenland, in the margins of large marine-terminated glaciers with near-grounded termini. They are caused by calving of cubic-kilometer scale unstable icebergs which penetrate the full-glacier thickness and, driven by the buoyancy forces, capsize against the calving front. These phenomena produce seismic energy including surface waves with dominant energy between 10-150 s of period whose seismogenic source is compatible with the contact force exerted on the terminus by the iceberg while it capsizes. A reverse motion and posterior rebound of the terminus have also been measured and associated with the fluctuation of this contact force. Using a finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> of iceberg and glacier terminus coupled with simplified fluid-structure interaction <span class="hlt">model</span>, we simulate calving and capsize of icebergs. Contact and frictional forces are measured on the terminus and compared with laboratory experiments. We also study the influence of various factors, such as iceberg geometry, calving style and terminus interface. Being extended to field environments, the simulation results are compared with forces obtained by seismic waveform inversion of registered glacial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24406467','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24406467"><span id="translatedtitle">Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using a universal <span class="hlt">model</span> of fusion-fission processes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M A; Johnson, Neil F</p> <p>2014-01-10</p> <p>Predicting how large an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal <span class="hlt">model</span> of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this <span class="hlt">model</span> very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and the integrated energy released by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/286037','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/286037"><span id="translatedtitle">Universality in Sandpiles, Interface Depinning, and <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Paczuski, M.; Boettcher, S. |</p> <p>1996-07-01</p> <p>Recent numerical results for a <span class="hlt">model</span> describing dispersive transport in ricepiles are explained by mapping the <span class="hlt">model</span> to the depinning transition of an elastic interface that is dragged at one end through a random medium. The average velocity of transport vanishes with system size {ital L} as {l_angle}{ital v}{r_angle}{approximately}{ital L}{sup 2{minus}{ital D}}{approximately}{ital L}{sup {minus}0.23}, and the avalanche size distribution exponent {tau}=2{minus}1/{ital D}{approx_equal}1.55, where {ital D}{approx_equal}2.23 from interface depinning. We conjecture that the purely deterministic Burridge-Knopoff {open_quote}{open_quote}train{close_quote}{close_quote} <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is in the same universality class. {copyright} {ital 1996 The American Physical Society.}</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5482298','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5482298"><span id="translatedtitle">Time-predictable recurrence <span class="hlt">model</span> for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Shimazaki, K.; Nakata, T.</p> <p>1980-04-01</p> <p>We present historical and geomorphological evidence of a regularity in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence at three different sites of plate convergence around the Japan arcs. The regularity shows that the larger an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is, the longer is the following quiet period. In other words, the time interval between two successive large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is approximately proportional to the amount of coseismic displacement of the preceding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and not of the following <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The regularity enables us, in principle, to predict the approximate occurrence time of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The data set includes 1) a historical document describing repeated measurements of water depth at Murotsu near the focal region of Nankaido <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, 2) precise levelling and /sup 14/C dating of Holocene uplifted terraces in the southern boso peninsula facing the Sagami trough, and 3) similar geomorphological data on exposed Holocene coral reefs in Kikai Island along the Ryukyu arc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1954S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1954S"><span id="translatedtitle">The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> and Disaster Risk Reduction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Smolka, A. J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide <span class="hlt">models</span>, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support <span class="hlt">modelers</span> and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability <span class="hlt">models</span>. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk <span class="hlt">models</span> for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_6 --> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CEJG....6..403C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CEJG....6..403C"><span id="translatedtitle">Prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard by hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Can, Ceren Eda; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is defined by several approaches and consequently <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> provides a better understanding of the nature of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> is used to predict the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes ( M) at least 4.0 are <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the <span class="hlt">model</span> by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014OGeo....6..403C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014OGeo....6..403C"><span id="translatedtitle">Prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard by hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> (around Bilecik, NW Turkey)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Can, Ceren; Ergun, Gul; Gokceoglu, Candan</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is defined by several approaches and consequently <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> provides a better understanding of the nature of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> is used to predict the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the <span class="hlt">model</span> by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S52F0178C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S52F0178C"><span id="translatedtitle">A Hidden Markov Approach to <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Interevent <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Times</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chambers, D.; Ebel, J. E.; Kafka, A. L.; Baglivo, J.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>A hidden Markov process, in which the interevent time distribution is a mixture of exponential distributions with different rates, is explored as a <span class="hlt">model</span> for seismicity that does not follow a Poisson process. In a general hidden Markov <span class="hlt">model</span>, one assumes that a system can be in any of a finite number k of states and there is a random variable of interest whose distribution depends on the state in which the system resides. The system moves probabilistically among the states according to a Markov chain; that is, given the history of visited states up to the present, the conditional probability that the next state is a specified one depends only on the present state. Thus the transition probabilities are specified by a k by k stochastic matrix. Furthermore, it is assumed that the actual states are unobserved (hidden) and that only the values of the random variable are seen. From these values, one wishes to estimate the sequence of states, the transition probability matrix, and any parameters used in the state-specific distributions. The hidden Markov process was applied to a data set of 110 interevent times for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in New England from 1975 to 2000. Using the Baum-Welch method (Baum et al., Ann. Math. Statist. 41, 164-171), we estimate the transition probabilities, find the most likely sequence of states, and estimate the k means of the exponential distributions. Using k=2 states, we found the data were fit well by a mixture of two exponential distributions, with means of approximately 5 days and 95 days. The steady state <span class="hlt">model</span> indicates that after approximately one fourth of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the waiting time until the next event had the first exponential distribution and three fourths of the time it had the second. Three and four state <span class="hlt">models</span> were also fit to the data; the data were inconsistent with a three state <span class="hlt">model</span> but were well fit by a four state <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031809','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031809"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, part I: Validation using the 1989 Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Aagaard, B.T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; Zoback, M.L.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>We compute ground motions for the Beroza (1991) and Wald et al. (1991) source <span class="hlt">models</span> of the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> using four different wave-propagation codes and recently developed 3D geologic and seismic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. In preparation for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we use this well-recorded <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to characterize how well our ground-motion simulations reproduce the observed shaking intensities and amplitude and durations of recorded motions throughout the San Francisco Bay Area. All of the simulations generate ground motions consistent with the large-scale spatial variations in shaking associated with rupture directivity and the geologic structure. We attribute the small variations among the synthetics to the minimum shear-wave speed permitted in the simulations and how they accommodate topography. Our long-period simulations, on average, under predict shaking intensities by about one-half modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units (25%-35% in peak velocity), while our broadband simulations, on average, under predict the shaking intensities by one-fourth MMI units (16% in peak velocity). Discrepancies with observations arise due to errors in the source <span class="hlt">models</span> and geologic structure. The consistency in the synthetic waveforms across the wave-propagation codes for a given source <span class="hlt">model</span> suggests the uncertainty in the source parameters tends to exceed the uncertainty in the seismic velocity structure. In agreement with earlier studies, we find that a source <span class="hlt">model</span> with slip more evenly distributed northwest and southeast of the hypocenter would be preferable to both the Beroza and Wald source <span class="hlt">models</span>. Although the new 3D seismic velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> improves upon previous velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>, we identify two areas needing improvement. Nevertheless, we find that the seismic velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> and the wave-propagation codes are suitable for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and scenario events in the San Francisco Bay Area.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27368770','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27368770"><span id="translatedtitle">Phase response curves for <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Franović, Igor; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž; Klinshov, Vladimir; Nekorkin, Vladimir; Kurths, Jürgen</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>We systematically study effects of external perturbations on <span class="hlt">models</span> describing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how the profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA......450E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA......450E"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> intensities: A case study on the faults of the Marmara Region, NW Turkey</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Erturac, M. K.; Tuysuz, O.</p> <p>2003-04-01</p> <p>North Anatolian Fault Zone is the biggest neo-tectonic structure of the Asia Minor. 17 August 1999 M=7.4 Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the seventh in a sequence of westward migrating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along this fault. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence which began with the 1939 Erzincan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, caused rupture of 1000 km section of the fault with maximum displacement of 7.5 meters. The time interval between these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> varied from 3 months to 32 years. Stress triggering has been invoked to explain the 60-year sequence of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> rupturing toward the west, in which every event promoted the next. The Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> increased the probability of future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the Sea of Marmara region. GPS, historical and instrumental <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data, and estimated stress triggering indicate a remarkable probability (62 % ±15) of a strong shaking in the Marmara Sea region during the next 30 years which threats the city of Istanbul. Active faults in the Sea of Marmara is mapped and published by different companies. By using these recent data, local geology, site conditions and attenuation relationships, it is possible to estimate the degree of shaking for a future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. In this study we used geographical information systems as a tool for such a <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. In the light of fault length, previous <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data and GPS measurements we attributed possible magnitudes for each segment. Then we used different attenuation relationships to obtain the distribution of possible peak ground accelerations. These data is correlated with the recorded attenuations. After choosing appropriate formula, the peak ground accelerations converted to intensity values. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is also applied to data obtained during the 1999 Izmit (Mw 7.3) and Duzce (Mw 7.2) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to test the consistency of the results. In this presentation <span class="hlt">models</span> for different fault segments will be presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26SS....3..480R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26SS....3..480R"><span id="translatedtitle">Nowcasting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gong, G.</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system and its current level of progress through the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, using "small" <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to determine the level of hazard from "large" <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the region. Our method does not involve any <span class="hlt">model</span> other than the idea of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles in the region. We then compute the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the region. From the count of small <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> since the last large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle in the defined region at the current time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10193934','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10193934"><span id="translatedtitle">Parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in radioactive atoms: An experimental perspective</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Vieira, D.</p> <p>1994-11-01</p> <p>The measurement of parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> (PNC) in atoms constitutes an important test of electroweak interactions in nuclei. Great progress has been made over the last 20 years in performing these measurements with ever increasing accuracies. To date the experimental accuracies have reached a level of 1 to 2%. In all cases, except for cesium, the theoretical atomic structure uncertainties now limit the comparison of these measurements to the predictions of the standard <span class="hlt">model</span>. New measurements involving the ratio of Stark interference transition rates for a series of Cs or Fr radioisotopes are foreseen as a way of eliminating these atomic structure uncertainties. The use of magneto-optical traps to collect and concentrate the much smaller number of radioactive atoms that are produced is considered to be one of the key steps in realizing these measurements. Plans for how these measurements will be done and progress made to date are outlined.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAESc.114..299C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAESc.114..299C"><span id="translatedtitle">Statistical analysis of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> after the 1999 MW 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> based on a modified Reasenberg-Jones <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen; Liu, Jann-Yenq</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>We investigated the temporal-spatial hazard of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> after the 1999 September 21 MW = 7.7 Chi-Chi shock in a continental region of Taiwan. The Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) <span class="hlt">model</span> (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, 1994) that combines the frequency-magnitude distribution (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and time-decaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for assessing the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard after a large shock. However, it is found that the b values in the frequency-magnitude distribution of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the study region dramatically decreased from background values after the Chi-Chi shock, and then gradually increased up. The observation of a time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution motivated us to propose a modified RJ <span class="hlt">model</span> (MRJ) to assess the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard. To see how the <span class="hlt">models</span> perform on assessing short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard, the RJ and MRJ <span class="hlt">models</span> were separately used to sequentially forecast <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the study region. To depict the potential rupture area for future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, we further constructed relative hazard (RH) maps based on the two <span class="hlt">models</span>. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets, 1988) finally demonstrated that the RH map based on the MRJ <span class="hlt">model</span> was, in general, superior to the one based on the original RJ <span class="hlt">model</span> for exploring the spatial hazard of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in a short time after the Chi-Chi shock.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70048493','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70048493"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas: possible signatures of induced seismicity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The rate of ML≥3 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the central and eastern United States increased beginning in 2009, particularly in Oklahoma and central Arkansas, where fluid injection has occurred. We find evidence that suggests these rate increases are man‐made by examining the rate changes in a catalog of ML≥3 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Oklahoma, which had a low background seismicity rate before 2009, as well as rate changes in a catalog of ML≥2.2 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in central Arkansas, which had a history of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> swarms prior to the start of injection in 2009. In both cases, stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence <span class="hlt">models</span> and statistical tests demonstrate that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate change is statistically significant, and both the background rate of independent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and the aftershock productivity must increase in 2009 to explain the observed increase in seismicity. This suggests that a significant change in the underlying triggering process occurred. Both parameters vary, even when comparing natural to potentially induced swarms in Arkansas, which suggests that changes in both the background rate and the aftershock productivity may provide a way to distinguish man‐made from natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate changes. In Arkansas we also compare <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and injection well locations, finding that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> within 6 km of an active injection well tend to occur closer together than those that occur before, after, or far from active injection. Thus, like a change in productivity, a change in interevent distance distribution may also be an indicator of induced seismicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/d/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/d/"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rate <span class="hlt">Model</span> 2 of the 2007 Working Group for California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, Magnitude-Area Relationships</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stein, Ross S.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The Working Group for California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current <span class="hlt">model</span>. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/992345','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/992345"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Response <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> for a Parked and Operating Megawatt-Scale Wind Turbine</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Prowell, I.; Elgamal, A.; Romanowitz, H.; Duggan, J. E.; Jonkman, J.</p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>Demand parameters for turbines, such as tower moment demand, are primarily driven by wind excitation and dynamics associated with operation. For that purpose, computational simulation platforms have been developed, such as FAST, maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). For seismically active regions, building codes also require the consideration of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loading. Historically, it has been common to use simple building code approaches to estimate the structural demand from <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking, as an independent loading scenario. Currently, International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) design requirements include the consideration of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking while the turbine is operating. Numerical and analytical tools used to consider <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loads for buildings and other static civil structures are not well suited for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> simultaneous wind and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> excitation in conjunction with operational dynamics. Through the addition of seismic loading capabilities to FAST, it is possible to simulate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking in the time domain, which allows consideration of non-linear effects such as structural nonlinearities, aerodynamic hysteresis, control system influence, and transients. This paper presents a FAST <span class="hlt">model</span> of a modern 900-kW wind turbine, which is calibrated based on field vibration measurements. With this calibrated <span class="hlt">model</span>, both coupled and uncoupled simulations are conducted looking at the structural demand for the turbine tower. Response is compared under the conditions of normal operation and potential emergency shutdown due the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> induced vibrations. The results highlight the availability of a numerical tool for conducting such studies, and provide insights into the combined wind-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loading mechanism.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T13C4659W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T13C4659W"><span id="translatedtitle">Finite-Source <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> for Parkfield and Anza <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wooddell, K. E.; Taira, T.; Dreger, D. S.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur in the vicinity of creeping sections along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault (Nadeau et al., 1995) and the Anza section of the San Jacinto fault (Taira, 2013). Uilizing an empirical Green's function (eGF) approach for both the Parkfield and Anza events, we are able to conduct a comparative study of the resulting slip distributions and source parameters to examine differences in the scaling of fault dimension, average slip, and peak-slip with magnitude. Following the approach of Dreger et al. (2007), moment rate functions (MRFs) are obtained at each station for both Parkfield and Anza <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using a spectral domain deconvolution approach where the complex spectrum of the eGF is divided out of the complex spectrum of the target event. Spatial distributions of fault slip are derived by inverting the MRFs, and the coseismic stress change is computed following the method of Ripperger and Mai (2004). Initial results are based on the analysis of several Parkfield target events ranging in magnitude from Mw1.8 to 6.0 (Dreger et al., 2011) and a Mw4.7 Anza event. Parkfield peak slips are consistent with the Nadeau and Johnson (1998) tectonic loading <span class="hlt">model</span>, while average slips tend to scale self-similarly. Results for the Anza event show very high peak and average slips, in exceedance of 50 cm and 10 cm respectively. Directivity for this event is in the northwest direction, and preliminary sensitivity analyses suggest that the rupture velocity is near the shear wave velocity and the rise time is short (~0.03 sec). Multiple eGFs for the Anza event have been evaluated and the results appear robust.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20895193','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20895193"><span id="translatedtitle">Information Theoric Framework for the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Recurrence <span class="hlt">Models</span> : Methodica Firma Per Terra Non-Firma</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Esmer, Oezcan</p> <p>2006-11-29</p> <p>This paper first evaluates the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction method (1999 ) used by US Geological Survey as the lead example and reviews also the recent <span class="hlt">models</span>. Secondly, points out the ongoing debate on the predictability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrences and lists the main claims of both sides. The traditional methods and the 'frequentist' approach used in determining the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities cannot end the complaints that the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are unpredictable. It is argued that the prevailing 'crisis' in seismic research corresponds to the Pre-Maxent Age of the current situation. The period of Kuhnian 'Crisis' should give rise to a new paradigm based on the Information-Theoric framework including the inverse problem, Maxent and Bayesian methods. Paper aims to show that the information- theoric methods shall provide the required 'Methodica Firma' for the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....9573A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....9573A"><span id="translatedtitle">Acceleration <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of moderate to large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> based on realistic fault <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arvidsson, R.; Toral, J.</p> <p>2003-04-01</p> <p>Strong motion is affected by distance to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, local crustal structure, focal mechanism, azimuth to the source. However, the faulting process is also of importance such as development of rupture, i.e., directivity, slip distribution on the fault, extent of fault, rupture velocity. We have <span class="hlt">modelled</span> these parameters for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in three tectonic zones close to the Panama Canal. We included in the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> directivity, distributed slip, discrete faulting, fault depth and expected focal mechanism. The distributed slip is based on previous fault <span class="hlt">models</span> that we produced from the region of other <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Such previous examples show that maximum intensities in some cases coincides with areas of high slip on the fault. Our acceleration <span class="hlt">modeling</span> also gives similar values to the few observations that have been made for moderate to small <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the range M=5-6.2. The <span class="hlt">modeling</span> indicates that events located in the Caribbean might cause strong motion in the lower frequency spectra where high frequency Rayleigh waves dominates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011IzPSE..47..847Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011IzPSE..47..847Y"><span id="translatedtitle">One-dimensional velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Middle Kura Depresion from local <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> data of Azerbaijan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yetirmishli, G. C.; Kazimova, S. E.; Kazimov, I. E.</p> <p>2011-09-01</p> <p>We present the method for determining the velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Earth's crust and the parameters of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Middle Kura Depression from the data of network telemetry in Azerbaijan. Application of this method allowed us to recalculate the main parameters of the hypocenters of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, to compute the corrections to the arrival times of P and S waves at the observation station, and to significantly improve the accuracy in determining the coordinates of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> was constructed using the VELEST program, which calculates one-dimensional minimal velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> from the travel times of seismic waves.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S31G..06D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S31G..06D"><span id="translatedtitle">Finite-Source <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of the South Napa <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dreger, D. S.; Huang, M. H.; Wooddell, K. E.; Taira, T.; Luna, B.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>On August 24 2014 an Mw 6.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> struck south-southwest of the city of Napa, California. As part of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL) Alarm Response a seismic moment tensor solution and preliminary finite-source <span class="hlt">model</span> were estimated. The preliminary finite-source <span class="hlt">model</span> used high quality three-component strong motion recordings, instrument corrected and integrated to displacement, from 8 stations of the BSL BK network for stations located between 30 to 200 km. The BSL focal mechanism (strike=155, dip=82, rake=-172), and a constant rise time and rupture velocity were assumed. The GIL7 plane-layered velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to compute Green's functions using a frequency wave-number integration approach. The preliminary <span class="hlt">model</span> from these stations indicates the rupture was unilateral to the NNW, and up dip with a average slip of 42 cm and peak slip of 102 cm. The total scalar moment was found to be 1.15*1025 dyne cm giving a Mw 6.0.The strong directivity from the rupture likely leads to the observed elevated local strong ground motions and the extensive damage to buildings in Napa and surrounding residential areas. In this study we will reevaluate the seismic moment tensor of the mainshock and larger aftershocks, and incorporate local strong motion waveforms, GPS, and InSAR deformation data to better constrain the finite-source <span class="hlt">model</span>. While the hypocenter and focal parameters used in the preliminary <span class="hlt">model</span> are consistent with the mapped surface trace of the west Napa fault, the mapped surface slip lies approximately 2 km to the west. Furthermore there is a pronounced change in strike of the mapped surface offsets at the northern end. We will investigate the location of the fault <span class="hlt">model</span> and the fit to the joint data set as well as examine the possibility of multi-segmented fault <span class="hlt">models</span> to account for these apparently inconsistent observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/946928','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/946928"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> II: Ground motion estimates for the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and scenario events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Aagaard, B; Brocher, T; Dreger, D; Frankel, A; Graves, R; Harmsen, S; Hartzell, S; Larsen, S; McCandless, K; Nilsson, S; Petersson, N A; Rodgers, A; Sjogreen, B; Tkalcic, H; Zoback, M L</p> <p>2007-02-09</p> <p>We estimate the ground motions produced by the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source <span class="hlt">model</span> that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> are consistent across five ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025926','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025926"><span id="translatedtitle">An empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities in the San Francisco Bay region, California, 2002-2031</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Reasenberg, P.A.; Hanks, T.C.; Bakun, W.H.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>The moment magnitude M 7.8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic <span class="hlt">models</span> of stress change fail to fully account for the duration of the lowered rate of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity. We use variations in the rate of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as a basis for a simple empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> for estimating the probability of M ≥6.7 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the SFBR. The <span class="hlt">model</span> preserves the relative magnitude distribution of sources predicted by the Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities' (WGCEP, 1999; WGCEP, 2002) <span class="hlt">model</span> of characterized ruptures on SFBR faults and is consistent with the occurrence of the four M ≥6.7 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the region since 1838. When the empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> is extrapolated 30 yr forward from 2002, it gives a probability of 0.42 for one or more M ≥6.7 in the SFBR. This result is lower than the probability of 0.5 estimated by WGCEP (1988), lower than the 30-yr Poisson probability of 0.60 obtained by WGCEP (1999) and WGCEP (2002), and lower than the 30-yr time-dependent probabilities of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.63 obtained by WGCEP (1990), WGCEP (1999), and WGCEP (2002), respectively, for the occurrence of one or more large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. This lower probability is consistent with the lack of adequate accounting for the 1906 stress-shadow in these earlier reports. The empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> represents one possible approach toward accounting for the stress-shadow effect of the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. However, the discrepancy between our result and those obtained with other <span class="hlt">modeling</span> methods underscores the fact that the physics controlling the timing of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is not well understood. Hence, we advise against using the empirical <span class="hlt">model</span> alone (or any other single probability <span class="hlt">model</span>) for estimating the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PApGe.159.2261D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002PApGe.159.2261D"><span id="translatedtitle">Combined GPS and InSAR <span class="hlt">Models</span> of Postseismic Deformation from the Northridge <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Peltzer, G.</p> <p></p> <p><span class="hlt">Models</span> of combined Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data collected in the region of the Northridge <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Additional shallow deformation occurred to the west of the main rupture plane. Both data sets are consistent with logarithmic time-dependent behavior following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> indicative of afterslip rather than postseismic relaxation. Aftershocks account for only about 10% of the postseismic motion. The two data sets are complimentary in determining the postseismic processes. Fault afterslip and shallow deformation dominate the deformation field in the two years following the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Lower crustal deformation may play an important role later in the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S11A2769M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S11A2769M"><span id="translatedtitle">Integrated Seismicity <span class="hlt">Model</span> to Detect Pairs of Possible Interdependent <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and Its Application to Aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and Sequence of the 2014 Kermadec and Rat Islands <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Miyazawa, M.; Tamura, R.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>We introduce an integrated seismicity <span class="hlt">model</span> to stochastically evaluate the time intervals of consecutive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at global scales, making it possible to detect a pair of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that are remotely located and possibly related to each other. The <span class="hlt">model</span> includes seismicity in non-overlapping areas and comprehensively explains the seismicity on the basis of point process <span class="hlt">models</span>, which include the stationary Poisson <span class="hlt">model</span>, the aftershock decay <span class="hlt">model</span> following Omori-Utsu's law, and/or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span>. By use of this <span class="hlt">model</span>, we examine the possibility of remote triggering of the 2011 M6.4 eastern Shizuoka <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the vicinity of Mt. Fuji that occurred 4 days after the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and 4 minutes after the M6.2 off-Fukushima <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that located about 400 km away, and that of the 2014 Mw7.9 Rat Islands <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that occurred within one hour after the Mw6.7 Kermadec <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> that located about 9,000 km away and followed two large (Mw6.9, 6.5) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the region. Both target <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred during the passage of surface waves propagating from the previous large events. We estimated probability that the time interval is shorter than that between consecutive events and obtained dynamic stress changes on the faults. The results indicate that the M6.4 eastern Shizuoka event may be rather triggered by the static stress changes from the Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and that the Mw7.9 Rat Islands event may have been remotely triggered by the Kermadec events possibly via cyclic fatigue.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815360S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815360S"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of iceberg calving force responsible for glacial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sergeant, Amandine; Yastrebov, Vladislav; Castelnau, Olivier; Mangeney, Anne; Stutzmann, Eleonore; Montagner, Jean-Paul</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Glacial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is a class of seismic events of magnitude up to 5, occurring primarily in Greenland, in the margins of large marine-terminated glaciers with near-grounded termini. They are caused by calving of cubic-kilometer scale unstable icebergs which penetrate the full-glacier thickness and, driven by the buoyancy forces, capsize against the calving front. These phenomena produce seismic energy including surface waves with dominant energy between 10-150 s of period whose seismogenic source is compatible with the contact force exerted on the terminus by the iceberg while it capsizes. A reverse motion and posterior rebound of the terminus have also been measured and associated with the fluctuation of this contact force. Using a finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> of iceberg and glacier terminus coupled with simplified fluid-structure interaction <span class="hlt">model</span>, we simulate calving and capsize of icebergs. Contact and frictional forces are measured on the terminus and compared with laboratory experiments. We also study the influence of geometric factors on the force history, amplitude and duration at the laboratory and field scales. We show first insights into the force and the generated seismic waves exploring different scenarios for iceberg capsizing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S43B2776A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S43B2776A"><span id="translatedtitle">Validating a Dynamic <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> to Produce Realistic Ground Motion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Andrews, D. J.; Ma, S.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>A dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> is validated by finding good agreement with an empirical ground motion prediction equation. The <span class="hlt">model</span> replaces detailed deterministic processes on the fault with a stochastic emergent law. Initial stress on a fault plane is heterogeneous with a power-law spectrum that is self-similar. Rupture stops naturally. Rupture extent and moment are determined primarily by the specified lowest Fourier mode of initial stress. Higher modes are random with a self-similar spectrum that is tied to the amplitude of the lowest mode. Ten random realizations are calculated with a velocity structure for a hard rock site. The calculated mean response spectrum for M7 at a distance of 10 km agrees the with the GMPE of Boore et al (2013) within 0.25 of one standard deviation at periods from 0.3 seconds to 10 seconds. The agreement could be improved by using a more refined relation of the spatial stress spectrum to the amplitude of the lowest mode. The standard deviation of the calculated ground motion is somewhat smaller than the GMPE, but it depends on other rupture parameters and needs more investigation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T13B4643B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T13B4643B"><span id="translatedtitle">Depths of Intraplate Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> from Waveform <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Baca, A. J.; Polet, J.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The Indian Ocean is a region of complex tectonics and anomalous seismicity. The ocean floor in this region exhibits many bathymetric features, most notably the multiple inactive fracture zones within the Wharton Basin and the Ninetyeast Ridge. The 11 April 2012 MW 8.7 and 8.2 strike-slip events that took place in this area are unique because their rupture appears to have extended to a depth where brittle failure, and thus seismic activity, was considered to be impossible. We analyze multiple intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that have occurred throughout the Indian Ocean to better constrain their focal depths in order to enhance our understanding of how deep intraplate events are occurring and more importantly determine if the ruptures are originating within a ductile regime. Selected events are located within the Indian Ocean away from major plate boundaries. A majority are within the deforming Indo-Australian tectonic plate. Events primarily display thrust mechanisms with some strike-slip or a combination of the two. All events are between MW5.5-6.5. Event selections were handled this way in order to facilitate the analysis of teleseismic waveforms using a point source approximation. From these criteria we gathered a suite of 15 intraplate events. Synthetic seismograms of direct P-waves and depth phases are computed using a 1-D propagator matrix approach and compared with global teleseismic waveform data to determine a best depth for each event. To generate our synthetic seismograms we utilized the CRUST1.0 software, a global crustal <span class="hlt">model</span> that generates velocity values at the hypocenter of our events. Our waveform analysis results reveal that our depths diverge from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) depths, which underestimate our deep lithosphere events and overestimate our shallow depths by as much as 17 km. We determined a depth of 45km for our deepest event. We will show a comparison of our final <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> depths with the lithospheric thickness based on</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1993PhDT........51R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1993PhDT........51R"><span id="translatedtitle">Simulational Studies of a 2-DIMENSIONAL Burridge - <span class="hlt">Model</span> for <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ross, John Bernard</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>A two-dimensional cellular automaton version of the Burridge-Knopoff (BK) <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is studied. The <span class="hlt">model</span> consists of a lattice of blocks connected by springs, subject to static friction and driven at a rate v by an externally applied force. A block ruptures provided that its total stress matches or exceeds static friction. The distance it moves is proportional to the total stress, alpha of which it releases to each of its neighbors and 1 - qalpha<=aves the system, where q is the number of neighbors. The BK <span class="hlt">model</span> with nearest neighbor (q = 4) and long range (q = 24) interactions is simulated for spatially uniform and random static friction on lattices with periodic, open, closed, and fixed boundary conditions. In the nearest neighbor <span class="hlt">model</span>, the system appears to have a spinodal critical point at v = v_{c} in all cases except for closed boundaries and uniform thresholds, where the system appears to be self-organized critical. The dynamics of the <span class="hlt">model</span> is always periodic or quasiperiodic for non-closed boundaries and uniform thresholds. The stress is "quantized" in multiples of the loader force in this case. A mean field theory is presented from which v _{c} and the dominant period of oscillation is derived, which agree well with the data. v_{c} varies inversely with the number of neighbors to which each blocks is attached and, as a result, goes to zero as the range of the springs goes to infinity. This is consistent with the behavior of a spinodal critical point as the range of interactions goes to infinity. The quasistatic limit of tectonic loading is thus recovered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040562&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DEarthquake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040562&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DEarthquake"><span id="translatedtitle">Use of GPS and InSAR Technology and its Further Development in <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G.; Argus, D.; Peltzer, G.; Parker, J.; Webb, F.; Heflin, M.; Zumberge, J.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>Global Positioning System (GPS) data are useful for understanding both interseismic and postseismic deformation. <span class="hlt">Models</span> of GPS data suggest that the lower crust, lateral heterogeneity, and fault slip, all provide a role in the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1020/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1020/"><span id="translatedtitle">Sensitivity of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Loss Estimates to Source <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Assumptions and Uncertainty</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Reasenberg, Paul A.; Shostak, Nan; Terwilliger, Sharon</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Introduction: This report explores how uncertainty in an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">model</span> may affect estimates of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> economic loss. Specifically, it focuses on the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">model</span> for the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) created by the Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities. The loss calculations are made using HAZUS-MH, a publicly available computer program developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for calculating future losses from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, floods and hurricanes within the United States. The database built into HAZUS-MH includes a detailed building inventory, population data, data on transportation corridors, bridges, utility lifelines, etc. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> hazard in the loss calculations is based upon expected (median value) ground motion maps called ShakeMaps calculated for the scenario <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources defined in WGCEP. The study considers the effect of relaxing certain assumptions in the WG02 <span class="hlt">model</span>, and explores the effect of hypothetical reductions in epistemic uncertainty in parts of the <span class="hlt">model</span>. For example, it addresses questions such as what would happen to the calculated loss distribution if the uncertainty in slip rate in the WG02 <span class="hlt">model</span> were reduced (say, by obtaining additional geologic data)? What would happen if the geometry or amount of aseismic slip (creep) on the region's faults were better known? And what would be the effect on the calculated loss distribution if the time-dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability were better constrained, either by eliminating certain probability <span class="hlt">models</span> or by better constraining the inherent randomness in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence? The study does not consider the effect of reducing uncertainty in the hazard introduced through <span class="hlt">models</span> of attenuation and local site characteristics, although these may have a comparable or greater effect than does source-related uncertainty. Nor does it consider sources of uncertainty in the building inventory, building fragility curves, and other assumptions</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70004499','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70004499"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events: a proposed <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>So, Emily; Spence, Robin</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> such as the Haiti <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> casualties very rapidly after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation <span class="hlt">model</span> described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AcSSn..18..290J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AcSSn..18..290J"><span id="translatedtitle">The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the critical-point-like <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> preparation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jiang, Chang-Sheng; Wu, Zhong-Liang</p> <p>2005-05-01</p> <p>Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.G34A..01J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.G34A..01J"><span id="translatedtitle">Moment accumulation rate on faults in California inferred from viscoelastic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle <span class="hlt">models</span> (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, K. M.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>Calculations of moment accumulation rates on active faults require knowledge of long-term fault slip rates and the area of the fault that is locked interseismically. These parameters are routinely estimated from geodetic data using elastic block <span class="hlt">models</span> with back slip on dislocations in an elastic half-space. Yet, the elastic <span class="hlt">models</span> are inconsistent with studies that infer postseismic viscous flow in the lower crust and mantle occurring for decades following large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Viscous flow in the lower crust and mantle generates rapid, localized deformation early in the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle and slower, more diffuse deformation later in the cycle. Elastic <span class="hlt">models</span> which neglect this time-dependent flow process may lead to biased estimates of fault slip rates and locking distribution. To address this issue we have developed a three-dimensional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle <span class="hlt">model</span> consisting of fault-bounded blocks in an elastic crust overlying a viscoelastic lower crust and uppermost mantle. It is a kinematic <span class="hlt">model</span> in which long-term motions of fault-bounded blocks is imposed. Interseismic locking of faults and associated deformation is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> with steady back-slip on faults and imposed periodic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Creep on unlocked portions of the faults occurs at constant stress and therefore the instantaneous creep rate is proportional to the instantaneous stressing rate on the fault. We compare geologic slip rate estimates in southern California with <span class="hlt">model</span> estimates using GPS data and show that elastic block <span class="hlt">models</span> underpredict slip rates on several faults that are late in the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle and overpredict slip rates on faults that are early in the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. The viscoelastic cycle <span class="hlt">model</span>, constrained by <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> timing from the geologic record, predicts fault slip rates that are entirely consistent with geologic estimates for all major faults in southern California. For northern California, fault slip rate estimates using geodetic data appear not to be strongly dependent on</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/g/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1437/g/"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of Final A-Fault Rupture <span class="hlt">Models</span> for WGCEP/ NSHMP <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rate <span class="hlt">Model</span> 2</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Field, Edward H.; Weldon, Ray J.; Parsons, Thomas; Wills, Chris J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Stein, Ross S.; Petersen, Mark D.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rate <span class="hlt">Model</span> 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based <span class="hlt">models</span>, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-<span class="hlt">model</span> option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GGG....17.2700D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GGG....17.2700D"><span id="translatedtitle">Geodetically constrained <span class="hlt">models</span> of viscoelastic stress transfer and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> triggering along the North Anatolian fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Krastev, Plamen G.; Meade, Brendan J.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Over the past 80 years, 8 MW > 6.7 strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> west of 40° longitude have ruptured the North Anatolian fault (NAF) from east to west. The series began with the 1939 Erzincan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in eastern Turkey, and the most recent 1999 MW = 7.4 Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> extended the pattern of ruptures into the Sea of Marmara in western Turkey. The mean time between seismic events in this westward progression is 8.5 ± 11 years (67% confidence interval), much greater than the timescale of seismic wave propagation (seconds to minutes). The delayed triggering of these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may be explained by the propagation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-generated diffusive viscoelastic fronts within the upper mantle that slowly increase the Coulomb failure stress change (ΔCFS) at adjacent hypocenters. Here we develop three-dimensional stress transfer <span class="hlt">models</span> with an elastic upper crust coupled to a viscoelastic Burgers rheology mantle. Both the Maxwell (ηM = 4 × 1018-1 × 1019 Pa s) and Kelvin (ηK = 1 × 1018-1 × 1019 Pa s) viscosities are constrained by studies of geodetic observations before and after the 1999 Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We combine this geodetically constrained rheological <span class="hlt">model</span> with the observed sequence of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> since 1939 to calculate the time evolution of ΔCFS changes along the North Anatolian fault due to viscoelastic stress transfer. Apparent threshold values of mean ΔCFS at which the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the eight decade sequence occur are between ˜0.02 to ˜3.15 MPa and may exceed the magnitude of static ΔCFS values by as much as 177%. By 2023, we infer that the mean time-dependent stress change along the northern NAF strand in the Marmara Sea near Istanbul, which may have previously ruptured in 1766, may reach the mean apparent time-dependent stress thresholds of the previous NAF <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013903','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013903"><span id="translatedtitle">Instability <span class="hlt">model</span> for recurring large and great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in southern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stuart, W.D.</p> <p>1985-01-01</p> <p>The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> instability <span class="hlt">model</span> is formulated. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is similar to one recently developed for moderate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both <span class="hlt">models</span>, unstable faulting (the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present <span class="hlt">model</span> the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> since a.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the M=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture in about 1700. ?? 1985 Birkha??user Verlag.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036770','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036770"><span id="translatedtitle">An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss <span class="hlt">models</span> to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> mortality. Moreover, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19518296','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19518296"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> size-frequency statistics in a forest-fire <span class="hlt">model</span> of individual faults.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tejedor, Alejandro; Gómez, Javier B; Pacheco, Amalio F</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size-frequency distribution of individual seismic faults commonly differs from the Gutenberg-Richter law of regional seismicity by the presence of an excess of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Here we present a cellular automaton of the forest-fire <span class="hlt">model</span> type that is able to reproduce several size-frequency distributions depending on the number and location of asperities on the fault plane. The <span class="hlt">model</span> describes a fault plane as a two-dimensional array of cells where each cell can be either a normal site or a trigger site. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> start on trigger sites. Asperities appear as the dual entities of the trigger sites. We study the effect that the number and distribution of asperities (the dual of the set of trigger sites), the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate, and the aspect ratio of the fault have on the size-frequency distribution. Size-frequency distributions have been grouped into subcritical, critical, and supercritical, and the relationship between the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters and these three kinds of distributions is presented in the form of phase maps for each of the five asperity types tested. We also study the connection between the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters and the aperiodicity of the large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. For this purpose the concept of aperiodicity spectrum is introduced. The aperiodicity in the recurrence of the large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in a fault shows an interesting variability that can be potentially useful for prediction purposes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/12b1/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/12b1/"><span id="translatedtitle">SLAMMER: Seismic LAndslide Movement <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> using <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Records</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Jibson, Randall W.; Rathje, Ellen M.; Jibson, Matthew W.; Lee, Yong W.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>This program is designed to facilitate conducting sliding-block analysis (also called permanent-deformation analysis) of slopes in order to estimate slope behavior during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The program allows selection from among more than 2,100 strong-motion records from 28 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and allows users to add their own records to the collection. Any number of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> records can be selected using a search interface that selects records based on desired properties. Sliding-block analyses, using any combination of rigid-block (Newmark), decoupled, and fully coupled methods, are then conducted on the selected group of records, and results are compiled in both graphical and tabular form. Simplified methods for conducting each type of analysis are also included.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6710795','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6710795"><span id="translatedtitle">Crack fusion dynamics: A <span class="hlt">model</span> for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Newman, W.I.; Knopoff, L.</p> <p>1982-07-01</p> <p>The physical processes of the fusion of small cracks into larger ones are nonlinear in character. A study of the nonlinear properties of fusion may lead to an understanding of the instabilities that give rise to clustering of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We have investigated the properties of simple versions of fusion processes to see if instabilities culminating in repetitive massive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are possible. We have taken into account such diverse phenomena as the production of aftershocks, the rapid extension of large cracks to overwhelm and absorb smaller cracks, the influence of anelastic creep-induced time delays, healing, the genesis of ''juvenile'' cracks due to plate motions, and others. A preliminary conclusion is that the time delays introduced by anelastic creep may be responsible for producing catastrophic instabilities characteristic of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as well as aftershock sequences. However, it seems that nonlocal influences, i.e., the spatial diffusion of cracks, may play a dominant role in producing episodes of seismicity and clustering.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S22B..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S22B..06M"><span id="translatedtitle">Combining Multiple Rupture <span class="hlt">Models</span> in Real-Time for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Minson, S. E.; Wu, S.; Beck, J. L.; Heaton, T. H.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The ShakeAlert <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning system for the west coast of the United States is designed to combine information from multiple independent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> analysis algorithms in order to provide the public with robust predictions of shaking intensity at each user's location before they are affected by strong shaking. The current contributing analyses come from algorithms that determine the origin time, epicenter, and magnitude of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (On-site, ElarmS, and Virtual Seismologist). A second generation of algorithms will provide seismic line source information (FinDer), as well as geodetically-constrained slip <span class="hlt">models</span> (BEFORES, GPSlip, G-larmS, G-FAST). These new algorithms will provide more information about the spatial extent of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture and thus improve the quality of the resulting shaking forecasts.Each of the contributing algorithms exploits different features of the observed seismic and geodetic data, and thus each algorithm may perform differently for different data availability and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source characteristics. Thus the ShakeAlert system requires a central mediator, called the Central Decision Module (CDM). The CDM acts to combine disparate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source information into one unified shaking forecast. Here we will present a new design for the CDM that uses a Bayesian framework to combine <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> reports from multiple analysis algorithms and compares them to observed shaking information in order to both assess the relative plausibility of each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> report and to create an improved unified shaking forecast complete with appropriate uncertainties. We will describe how these probabilistic shaking forecasts can be used to provide each user with a personalized decision-making tool that can help decide whether or not to take a protective action (such as opening fire house doors or stopping trains) based on that user's distance to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, vulnerability to shaking, false alarm tolerance, and time required to act.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S53C4531N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S53C4531N"><span id="translatedtitle">Space-time Renewal <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Repeating <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and Slow Slip before and after the Major <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in the Northeastern Japan Subduction Zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nomura, S.; Ogata, Y.; Uchida, N.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Repeating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences on the plate subduction zone represent the slip-rate histories around their fault patches. So they are useful resources for monitoring precursory aseismic slip of major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on plate boundaries. Repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are often <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by renewal processes, point processes whose recurrence intervals are independent and identically distributed. However, their repeating intervals are greatly influenced by larger seismic events or aseismic slow slip, and hence we need to <span class="hlt">model</span> such non-stationary behavior of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In this study, we propose a non-stationary space-time <span class="hlt">model</span> for repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> based on the <span class="hlt">model</span> in Nomura et al. (2014) applied to the Parkfield catalog. We used the empirical relation between magnitudes and slip sizes of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by Nadeau and Johnson (1998) to estimate the slip-rate histories in repeating sequences. The proposed <span class="hlt">model</span> can estimate spatio-temporal variation in slip rate with smoothness restriction adjusted to optimize its Bayesian likelihood.We apply the proposed <span class="hlt">model</span> to the large catalog of repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Uchida and Matsuzawa (2013) on subduction zone of Pacific Plate in the northeastern Japan from 1993 to 2011 and estimate slip-rate history of the plate boundary. From this analysis, we discuss the characteristic changes in slip rate before and after the major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> such as Sanriku-Haruka-Oki (1994 Mw7.6), Tokachi-Oki (2003 Mw8.0), Kushiro-Oki (2004 Mw7.1), Fukushima-Oki (2008 Mw6.9), Ibaraki-Oki (2008 Mw7.0) and Tohoku-Oki (2011 Mw9.0).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.174....1S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.174....1S"><span id="translatedtitle">A Review of Source <span class="hlt">Models</span> of the 2015 Illapel, Chile <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and Insights from Tsunami Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Satake, Kenji; Heidarzadeh, Mohammad</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and associated tsunami have been studied by many researchers from various aspects. This paper reviews studies on the source <span class="hlt">model</span> of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and examines tsunami data. The Illapel <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in the source region of previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in 1943 and 1880. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source was studied using various geophysical data, such as near-field seismograms, teleseismic waveform and backprojection, GPS and InSAR data, and tsunami waveforms. Most seismological analyses show a duration of 100 s with a peak at 50 s. The spatial distribution has some variety, but they all have the largest slip varying from 5 to 16 m located at 31°S, 72°W, which is 70 km NW of the epicenter. The shallow slip seems to be extended to the trench axis. A deeper slip patch was proposed from high-frequency seismic data. A tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> with a total duration of 250 s and a third asperity south of the epicenter is also proposed, but we show that the tsunami data do not support this <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.205..236X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.205..236X"><span id="translatedtitle">An improved geodetic source <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 1999 Mw 6.3 Chamoli <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, India</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xu, Wenbin; Bürgmann, Roland; Li, Zhiwei</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>We present a distributed slip <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 1999 Mw 6.3 Chamoli <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of north India using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from both ascending and descending orbits and Bayesian estimation of confidence levels and trade-offs of the <span class="hlt">model</span> geometry parameters. The results of fault-slip inversion in an elastic half-space show that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a 9°_{-2.2}^{+3.4} northeast-dipping plane with a maximum slip of ˜1 m. The fault plane is located at a depth of ˜15.9_{ - 3.0}^{ + 1.1} km and is ˜120 km north of the Main Frontal Thrust, implying that the rupture plane was on the northernmost detachment near the mid-crustal ramp of the Main Himalayan Thrust. The InSAR-determined moment is 3.35 × 1018 Nm with a shear modulus of 30 GPa, equivalent to Mw 6.3, which is smaller than the seismic moment estimates of Mw 6.4-6.6. Possible reasons for this discrepancy include the trade-off between moment and depth, uncertainties in seismic moment tensor components for shallow dip-slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and the role of earth structure <span class="hlt">models</span> in the inversions. The released seismic energy from recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Garhwal region is far less than the accumulated strain energy since the 1803 Ms 7.5 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, implying substantial hazard of future great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22518911','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22518911"><span id="translatedtitle">“SLIMPLECTIC” INTEGRATORS: VARIATIONAL INTEGRATORS FOR GENERAL <span class="hlt">NONCONSERVATIVE</span> SYSTEMS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Tsang, David; Turner, Alec; Galley, Chad R.; Stein, Leo C.</p> <p>2015-08-10</p> <p>Symplectic integrators are widely used for long-term integration of conservative astrophysical problems due to their ability to preserve the constants of motion; however, they cannot in general be applied in the presence of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> interactions. In this Letter, we develop the “slimplectic” integrator, a new type of numerical integrator that shares many of the benefits of traditional symplectic integrators yet is applicable to general <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems. We utilize a fixed-time-step variational integrator formalism applied to the principle of stationary <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> action developed in Galley et al. As a result, the generalized momenta and energy (Noether current) evolutions are well-tracked. We discuss several example systems, including damped harmonic oscillators, Poynting–Robertson drag, and gravitational radiation reaction, by utilizing our new publicly available code to demonstrate the slimplectic integrator algorithm. Slimplectic integrators are well-suited for integrations of systems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effects play an important role in the long-term dynamical evolution. As such they are particularly appropriate for cosmological or celestial N-body dynamics problems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> interactions, e.g., gas interactions or dissipative tides, can play an important role.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ESS.....310909T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ESS.....310909T"><span id="translatedtitle">"Slimplectic" Integrators: Variational Integrators for General <span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span> Dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsang, David</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Symplectic integrators are widely used for long-term integration of conservative astrophysical problems due to their ability to preserve the constants of motion; however, they cannot in general be applied in the presence of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> (e.g. dissipative) interactions. Here we present the “slimplectic” integrator, a new type of numerical integrator that shares many of the benefits of traditional symplectic integrators yet is applicable to general <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems. We utilize a fixed-time-step variational integrator formalism applied to the recently developed principle of stationary <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> action. As a result, the generalized momenta and energy (Noether current) evolutions are well-tracked. Slimplectic integrators are well-suited for integrations of systems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effects play an important role in the long-term dynamical evolution. As such they are particularly appropriate for cosmological or celestial N-body dynamics problems where <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> interactions, e.g., PR drag, gas interactions, or dissipative tides, can play an important role</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.2264L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.2264L"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">models</span> of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from ultra low-frequency normal mode data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lentas, Konstantinos; Ferreira, Ana; Clévédé, Eric</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>We present a new <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversion technique based on normal mode data for the simultaneous determination of the rupture duration, length and moment tensor of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with unilateral rupture. We use ultra low-frequency (f < 1 mHz) normal mode spheroidal multiplets and the phases of split free oscillations, which are <span class="hlt">modelled</span> using Higher Order Perturbation Theory (HOPT), taking into account the Earth's rotation, ellipticity and lateral heterogeneities. A Monte Carlo exploration of the <span class="hlt">model</span> space is carried out, enabling the assessment of source parameter tradeoffs and uncertainties. We carry out synthetic tests for four different realistic artificial <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with different faulting mechanisms and magnitudes (Mw 8.1-9.3) to investigate errors in the source inversions due to: (i) unmodelled 3-D Earth structure; (ii) noise in the data; (iii) uncertainties in spatio-temporal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> location; and, (iv) neglecting the source finiteness in point source moment tensor inversions. We find that unmodelled 3-D structure is the most serious source of errors for rupture duration and length determinations especially for the lowest magnitude artificial events. The errors in moment magnitude and fault mechanism are generally small, with the rake angle showing systematically larger errors (up to 20 degrees). We then carry out source inversions of five giant thrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw ≥ 8.5): (i) the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>; (ii) the 28 March 2005 Nias, Sumatra <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>; (iii) the 12 September 2007 Bengkulu <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>; (iv) the Tohoku, Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 11 March 2011; (v) the Maule, Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 27 February 2010; and (vi) the recent 24 May 2013 Mw 8.3 Okhotsk Sea, Russia, deep (607 km) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. While finite source inversions for rupture length, duration, magnitude and fault mechanism are possible for the Sumatra-Andaman and Tohoku events, for all the other events their lower magnitudes do not allow stable inversions of mode</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11009414','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11009414"><span id="translatedtitle">A mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> for intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: application to the new madrid seismic zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kenner; Segall</p> <p>2000-09-29</p> <p>We present a time-dependent <span class="hlt">model</span> for the generation of repeated intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that incorporates a weak lower crustal zone within an elastic lithosphere. Relaxation of this weak zone after tectonic perturbations transfers stress to the overlying crust, generating a sequence of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that continues until the zone fully relaxes. Simulations predict large (5 to 10 meters) slip events with recurrence intervals of 250 to 4000 years and cumulative offsets of about 100 meters, depending on material parameters and far-field stress magnitude. Most are consistent with <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude, coseismic slip, recurrence intervals, cumulative offset, and surface deformation rates in the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Computed interseismic strain rates may not be detectable with available geodetic data, implying that low observed rates of strain accumulation cannot be used to rule out future damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26282331','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26282331"><span id="translatedtitle">Cross-cultural comparisons between the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> preparedness <span class="hlt">models</span> of Taiwan and New Zealand.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jang, Li-Ju; Wang, Jieh-Jiuh; Paton, Douglas; Tsai, Ning-Yu</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Taiwan and New Zealand are both located in the Pacific Rim where 81 per cent of the world's largest <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur. Effective programmes for increasing people's preparedness for these hazards are essential. This paper tests the applicability of the community engagement theory of hazard preparedness in two distinct cultural contexts. Structural equation <span class="hlt">modelling</span> analysis provides support for this theory. The paper suggests that the close fit between theory and data that is achieved by excluding trust supports the theoretical prediction that familiarity with a hazard negates the need to trust external sources. The results demonstrate that the hazard preparedness theory is applicable to communities that have previously experienced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and are therefore familiar with the associated hazards and the need for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> preparedness. The paper also argues that cross-cultural comparisons provide opportunities for collaborative research and learning as well as access to a wider range of potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk management strategies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA529678','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA529678"><span id="translatedtitle">Transportations Systems <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and Applications in <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Engineering</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://publicaccess.dtic.mil/psm/api/service/search/search">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-07-01</p> <p>Missouri State Emergency Management Agency), Mr. Richard Bennett (Missouri Department of Transportation), Mr. Phillip Anello (Illinois Emergency Management...sufficient demand during the post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> evacuation process , and the flows from different evacuation zones can be evacuated to any safe zones...assignment step of the conventional four-step transportation demand forecasting process (Weiner 1987). Traffic assignment methods (static or dynamic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S22D..04T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S22D..04T"><span id="translatedtitle">Locating and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Regional <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> with Broadband Waveform Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tan, Y.; Zhu, L.; Helmberger, D.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>Retrieving source parameters of small <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw < 4.5), including mechanism, depth, location and origin time, relies on local and regional seismic data. Although source characterization for such small events achieves a satisfactory stage in some places with a dense seismic network, such as TriNet, Southern California, a worthy revisit to the historical events in these places or an effective, real-time investigation of small events in many other places, where normally only a few local waveforms plus some short-period recordings are available, is still a problem. To address this issue, we introduce a new type of approach that estimates location, depth, origin time and fault parameters based on 3-component waveform matching in terms of separated Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves. We show that most local waveforms can be well <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by a regionalized 1-D <span class="hlt">model</span> plus different timing corrections for Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves at relatively long periods, i.e., 4-100 sec for Pnl, and 8-100 sec for surface waves, except for few anomalous paths involving greater structural complexity, meanwhile, these timing corrections reveal similar azimuthal patterns for well-located cluster events, despite their different focal mechanisms. Thus, we can calibrate the paths separately for Pnl, Rayleigh and Love waves with the timing corrections from well-determined events widely recorded by a dense modern seismic network or a temporary PASSCAL experiment. In return, we can locate events and extract their fault parameters by waveform matching for available waveform data, which could be as less as from two stations, assuming timing corrections from the calibration. The accuracy of the obtained source parameters is subject to the error carried by the events used for the calibration. The detailed method requires a Green­_s function library constructed from a regionalized 1-D <span class="hlt">model</span> together with necessary calibration information, and adopts a grid search strategy for both hypercenter and</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1411715B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1411715B"><span id="translatedtitle">The investigation of blind continental <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources through analogue and numerical <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bonini, L.; Toscani, G.; Seno, S.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>One of the most challenging topic in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> geology is to characterize the seismogenic sources, i.e. the potential causative faults of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The main seismogenic layer is located in the upper brittle crust. Nevertheless it does not mean that a fault take up the whole schizosphere: i.e. from the brittle-plastic transition to the surface. Indeed, latest damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were generated by blind or "hidden" faults: 23 Oct. 2011, Van <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.1, Turkey); 3 Sep 2010, Darfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.1, New Zealand); 12 January 2010 Haiti <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.0); 6 April 2009 L'Aquila <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 6.3, Italy). Therefore understand how a fault grows and develops is a key question to evaluate the seismogenic potential of an area. Analogue <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to understand kinematics and geometry of the geological structures since the beginning of the modern geology. On the other hand, numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> develops much more during the last thirty years. Nowadays we can use these two methods working together providing mutual interactions. In the two-three most recent years we tried to use both numerical and analogue <span class="hlt">models</span> to investigate the long-term and short-term evolution of a blind normal fault. To do this we improved the Analogue <span class="hlt">Model</span> Laboratory of the University of Pavia with a laser scanner, a stepper motor and other high resolution tools in order to detect the distribution of the deformation mainly induced by blind faults. The goal of this kind of approach is to mimic the effects of the faults movements in a scaled <span class="hlt">model</span>. We selected two seismogenic source cases: the causative fault of the 1908 Messina <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.1) and that of the 2009 L'Aquila <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 6.3). In the first case we investigate the long term evolution of this structure using a set of analogue <span class="hlt">models</span> and afterwards a numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> of our sandbox allow us to investigate stress and strain partitioning. In the second case we performed only an analogue <span class="hlt">model</span> of short-term evolution of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.S21A0232R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.S21A0232R"><span id="translatedtitle">Bounding Ground Motions for Hayward Fault Scenario <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> Using Suites of Stochastic Rupture <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rodgers, A. J.; Xie, X.; Petersson, A.</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>The next major <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the San Francisco Bay area is likely to occur on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system. Attention on the southern Hayward section is appropriate given the upcoming 140th anniversary of the 1868 M 7 rupture coinciding with the estimated recurrence interval. This presentation will describe ground motion simulations for large (M > 6.5) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the Hayward Fault using a recently developed elastic finite difference code and high-performance computers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our code easily reads the recent USGS 3D seismic velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Bay Area developed in 2005 and used for simulations of the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Previous work has shown that the USGS <span class="hlt">model</span> performs very well when used to <span class="hlt">model</span> intermediate period (4-33 seconds) ground motions from moderate (M ~ 4-5) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Rodgers et al., 2008). Ground motions for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are strongly controlled by the hypocenter location, spatial distribution of slip, rise time and directivity effects. These are factors that are impossible to predict in advance of a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and lead to large epistemic uncertainties in ground motion estimates for scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. To bound this uncertainty, we are performing suites of simulations of scenario events on the Hayward Fault using stochastic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> following the method of Liu et al. (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 2118-2130, 2006). These rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> have spatially variable slip, rupture velocity, rise time and rake constrained by characterization of inferred finite fault ruptures and expert opinion. Computed ground motions show variability due to the variability in rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> and can be used to estimate the average and spread of ground motion measures at any particular site. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No.W-7405-Eng-48. This is</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20974514','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20974514"><span id="translatedtitle">Breit interaction and parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in many-electron atoms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dzuba, V. A.; Flambaum, V. V.; Safronova, M. S.</p> <p>2006-02-15</p> <p>We present accurate ab initio nonperturbative calculations of the Breit correction to the parity <span class="hlt">nonconserving</span> (PNC) amplitudes of the 6s-7s and 6s-5d{sub 3/2} transitions in Cs, 7s-8s and 7s-6d{sub 3/2} transitions in Fr, 6s-5d{sub 3/2} transition in Ba{sup +}, 7s-6d{sub 3/2} transition in Ra{sup +}, and 6p{sub 1/2}-6p{sub 3}/{sub 2} transition in Tl. The results for the 6s-7s transition in Cs and 7s-8s transition in Fr are in good agreement with other calculations. We demonstrate that higher-orders many-body corrections to the Breit interaction are especially important for the s-d PNC amplitudes. We confirm good agreement of the PNC measurements for cesium and thallium with the standard <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011ESASP.696E...5B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011ESASP.696E...5B"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> and Observing the 8.8 Chile and 9.0 Japan <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> Using GOCE</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Broerse, T.; Visser, P.; Bouman, J.; Fuchs, M.; Vermeersen, B.; Schmidt, M.</p> <p>2011-07-01</p> <p>Large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> do not only heavily deform the crust in the vicinity of the fault, they also change the gravity field of the area affected by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> due to mass redistribution in the upper layers of the Earth. Besides that, for sub-oceanic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> deformation of the ocean floor causes relative sea-level changes and mass redistribution of water that has again a significant effect on the gravity field. Such a sub-oceanic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred on 27 February 2010 in central Chili with a magnitude of Mw 8.8 and on 11 March 2011 with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 near the east coast of Honshu, Japan. This makes both a potential candidate for detecting the co-seismic gravity changes in the GOCE gradiometer data. We will assess the detectability of gravity field changes in the GOCE gravity gradients by <span class="hlt">modelling</span> these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using a forward <span class="hlt">model</span> as well as taking differences of GOCE data before and after the respective <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035883','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035883"><span id="translatedtitle">PAGER-CAT: A composite <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog for calibrating global fatality <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Allen, T.I.; Marano, K.D.; Earle, P.S.; Wald, D.J.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog developed principally for calibrating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fatality <span class="hlt">models</span>. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss <span class="hlt">models</span> employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source parameters and reports of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG44A..07T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG44A..07T"><span id="translatedtitle">Damage and the Gutenberg-Richter Law: from simple <span class="hlt">models</span> to natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.; Rundle, J. B.; Dominguez, R.; Serino, C.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>Natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fault systems are highly nonhomogeneous in space, where these inhomogeneities occur because the earth is made of a variety of materials which hold and dissipate stress differently. One way that the inhomogeneous nature of fault systems manifests itself is in the spatial patterns which emerge in seismicity graphs (Tiampo et al., 2002, 2007). Despite their inhomogeneous nature, real faults are often <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as spatially homogeneous systems. One argument for this approach is that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults experience long range stress transfer, and if this range is longer than the length scales associated with the inhomogeneities of the system, the dynamics of the system may be unaffected by their presence. However, it is not clear that this is the case. In this work we study the scaling of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> that is a variation of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) <span class="hlt">model</span>, in order to explore the effect of spatial inhomogeneities on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-like systems when interaction ranges are long, but not necessarily longer than the distances associated with those inhomogeneities (Rundle and Jackson, 1977; Olami et al., 1988). For long ranges and without inhomogeneities, such <span class="hlt">models</span> have been found to produce scaling similar to GR scaling found in real <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> systems (Rundle and Klein, 1993). In the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> discussed here, damage is distributed inhomogeneously throughout and the interaction ranges, while long, are not longer than all of the damage length scales. We find that the scaling depends not only on the amount of damage, but also on the spatial distribution of that damage. In addition, we study the behaviour of particular natural <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults and the spatial and temporal variation of GR scaling in those systems, in order to compare them with various damage cases from the simulations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMNH41B1706L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMNH41B1706L"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Tsunamis and Hydroacoustic Waves from Megathrust <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lotto, G. C.; Belair, G. M.; Kozdon, J. E.; Dunham, E. M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The immense damage caused by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> demonstrated the importance of understanding tsunami excitation by megathrust ruptures. Of particular interest are any faster-propagating seismic or hydroacoustic signals that could be used to rapidly predict tsunami wave heights. To study the full seismic, acoustic, and tsunami wavefields, we have developed a provably stable and accurate finite-difference method that couples an elastic solid to a compressible fluid subject to gravitational restoring forces. We introduce a new treatment of the dynamic (free surface) boundary condition on the moving sea surface in the presence of gravity that is valid for small-amplitude perturbations about an ocean initially in hydrostatic balance. This permits us to <span class="hlt">model</span> surface gravity waves in the linearized limit, including dispersion from nonhydrostatic motions at short wavelengths. This is done using summation-by-parts (SBP) finite difference operators and weak enforcement of boundary conditions. Shallow coseismic slip during megathrust events causes seafloor uplift that excites both tsunamis and long-period (~10 s) hydroacoustic waves; the latter ocean sound waves travel at several km/s and reach the coast many minutes sooner than tsunami waves. These hydroacoustic waves might be used as part of local tsunami early warning systems. Our previous dynamic rupture simulations of the Tohoku event, which neglected surface gravity waves, revealed correlations between pressure perturbations recorded at the seafloor (associated with ~10 s hydroacoustic waves in the ocean) and near-trench seafloor uplift caused by shallow slip. Now that we can <span class="hlt">model</span> tsunamis within the same code, we plan to quantify the correlation between these pressure perturbations and tsunami height. We are also investigating properties of these hydroacoustic modes, which involve significant motions of the solid Earth as well as the ocean. Phase and group velocity curves for a uniform ocean</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T11D2496H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T11D2496H"><span id="translatedtitle">Post <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Investigation Of The Mw7.8 Haida Gwaii, Canada, Rupture Area And Constraints On <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Source <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Haeussler, P. J.; Witter, R. C.; Wang, K.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The October 28, 2012 Mw 7.8 Haida Gwaii, British Columbia, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the second largest historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recorded in Canada. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> seismology and GPS geodesy shows this was an underthrusting event, in agreement with prior studies that indicated oblique underthrusting of the Haida Gwaii by the Pacific plate. Coseismic deformation is poorly constrained by geodesy, with only six GPS sites and two tide gauge stations anywhere near the rupture area. In order to better constrain the coseismic deformation, we measured the upper limit of sessile intertidal organisms at 26 sites relative to sea level. We dominantly measured the positions of bladder weed (fucus distichus - 617 observations) and the common acorn barnacle (Balanus balanoides - 686 observations). Physical conditions control the upper limit of sessile intertidal organisms, so we tried to find the quietest water conditions, with steep, but not overhanging faces, where slosh from wave motion was minimized. We focused on the western side of the islands as rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> indicated that the greatest displacement was there. However, we were also looking for calm water sites in bays located as close as possible to the often tumultuous Pacific Ocean. In addition, we made 322 measurements of sea level that will be used to develop a precise tidal <span class="hlt">model</span> and to evaluate the position of the organisms with respect to a common sea level datum. We anticipate the resolution of the method will be about 20-30 cm. The sites were focused on the western side of the Haida Gwaii from Wells Bay on the south up to Otard Bay to the north, with 5 transects across strike. We also collected data at the town of Masset, which lies outside of the deformation zone of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We observed dried and desiccated bands of fucus and barnacles at two sites on the western coast of southern Moresby Island (Gowgia Bay and Wells Bay). Gowgia Bay had the strongest evidence of uplift with fucus that was dried out and apparently dead. A</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoJI.192..710B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoJI.192..710B"><span id="translatedtitle">Location and magnitudes of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Central Asia from seismic intensity data: <span class="hlt">model</span> calibration and validation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bindi, Dino; Capera, Augusto A. Gómez; Parolai, Stefano; Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek; Stucchi, Massimiliano; Zschau, Jochen</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>In this study, we estimate the location and magnitude of Central Asian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from macroseismic intensity data. A set of 2373 intensity observations from 15 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is analysed to calibrate non-parametric <span class="hlt">models</span> for the source and attenuation with distance, the distance being computed from the instrumental epicentres located according to the International Seismological Centre (ISC) catalogue. In a second step, the non-parametric source <span class="hlt">model</span> is regressed against different magnitude values (e.g. MLH, mb, MS, Mw) as listed in various instrumental catalogues. The reliability of the calibrated <span class="hlt">model</span> is then assessed by applying the methodology to macroseismic intensity data from 29 validation <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for which both MLH and mb are available from the Central Asian Seismic Risk Initiative (CASRI) project and the ISC catalogue. An overall agreement is found for both the location and magnitude of these events, with the distribution of the differences between instrumental and intensity-based magnitudes having almost a zero mean, and standard deviations equal to 0.30 and 0.44 for mb and MLH, respectively. The largest discrepancies are observed for the location of the 1985, MLH = 7.0 southern Xinjiang <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, whose location is outside the area covered by the intensity assignments, and for the magnitude of the 1974, mb = 6.2 Markansu <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which shows a difference in magnitude greater than one unit in terms of MLH. Finally, the relationships calibrated for the non-parametric source <span class="hlt">model</span> are applied to assign different magnitude-scale values to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that lack instrumental information. In particular, an intensity-based moment magnitude is assigned to all of the validation <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7960S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7960S"><span id="translatedtitle">Effect of data quality on a hybrid Coulomb/STEP <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Steacy, Sandy; Jimenez, Abigail; Gerstenberger, Matt; Christophersen, Annemarie</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Operational <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting is rapidly becoming a 'hot topic' as civil protection authorities seek quantitative information on likely near future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> distributions during seismic crises. At present, most of the <span class="hlt">models</span> in public domain are statistical and use information about past and present seismicity as well as b-value and Omori's law to forecast future rates. A limited number of researchers, however, are developing hybrid <span class="hlt">models</span> which add spatial constraints from Coulomb stress <span class="hlt">modeling</span> to existing statistical approaches. Steacy et al. (2013), for instance, recently tested a <span class="hlt">model</span> that combines Coulomb stress patterns with the STEP (short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability) approach against seismicity observed during the 2010-2012 Canterbury <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence. They found that the new <span class="hlt">model</span> performed at least as well as, and often better than, STEP when tested against retrospective data but that STEP was generally better in pseudo-prospective tests that involved data actually available within the first 10 days of each event of interest. They suggested that the major reason for this discrepancy was uncertainty in the slip <span class="hlt">models</span> and, in particular, in the geometries of the faults involved in each complex major event. Here we test this hypothesis by developing a number of retrospective forecasts for the Landers <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> using hypothetical slip distributions developed by Steacy et al. (2004) to investigate the sensitivity of Coulomb stress <span class="hlt">models</span> to fault geometry and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip. Specifically, we consider slip <span class="hlt">models</span> based on the NEIC location, the CMT solution, surface rupture, and published inversions and find significant variation in the relative performance of the <span class="hlt">models</span> depending upon the input data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G31A..03G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.G31A..03G"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">Models</span> of Post-Seismic Deformation Following the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Norton, C. D.; Parker, J. W.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>The M 7.8 1906 Great San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured 470 km, or about a third of the San Andreas fault, producing offsets of up to 8.5 m. We are studying the long-term effects in the strain field generated by this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and comparing <span class="hlt">model</span> results using the 3D GeoFEST code combined with the DISLOC elastic dislocation code with observed data. We are comparing <span class="hlt">model</span> results with current GPS data in order to quantify the contribution of post seismic deformation from large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to the current velocity field. Viscoelastic <span class="hlt">models</span> indicate 2-6 mm/yr of post-seismic deformation resulting from postseismic relaxation following the 1906 event. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> results best fit the GPS data from Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network using a 40 yr relaxation time and an 18-30 km locking depth for the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras faults.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6103729','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/6103729"><span id="translatedtitle">Locating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in west Texas oil fields using 3-D anisotropic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hua, Fa; Doser, D.; Baker, M. . Dept. of Geological Sciences)</p> <p>1993-02-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> within the War-Wink gas field, Ward County, Texas, that have been located with a 1-D velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> occur near the edges and top of a naturally occurring overpressured zone. Because the War-Wink field is a structurally controlled anticline with significant velocity anisotropy associated with the overpressured zone and finely layered evaporites, the authors have attempted to re-locate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using a 3-D anisotropic velocity <span class="hlt">model</span>. Preliminary results with this <span class="hlt">model</span> give the unsatisfactory result that many <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> previously located at the top of the overpressured zone (3-3.5 km) moved into the evaporites (1-1.5 km) above the field. They believe that this result could be caused by: (1) aliasing the velocity <span class="hlt">model</span>; or (2) problems in determining the correct location minima when several minima exist. They are currently attempting to determine which of these causes is more likely for the unsatisfactory result observed.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSeis.tmp...15A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JSeis.tmp...15A"><span id="translatedtitle">Empirical <span class="hlt">models</span> for the prediction of ground motion duration for intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anbazhagan, P.; Neaz Sheikh, M.; Bajaj, Ketan; Mariya Dayana, P. J.; Madhura, H.; Reddy, G. R.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Many empirical relationships for the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion duration were developed for interplate region, whereas only a very limited number of empirical relationships exist for intraplate region. Also, the existing relationships were developed based mostly on the scaled recorded interplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to represent intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. To the author's knowledge, none of the existing relationships for the intraplate regions were developed using only the data from intraplate regions. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to develop empirical predictive relationships of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion duration (i.e., significant and bracketed) with <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude, hypocentral distance, and site conditions (i.e., rock and soil sites) using the data compiled from intraplate regions of Canada, Australia, Peninsular India, and the central and southern parts of the USA. The compiled <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion data consists of 600 records with moment magnitudes ranging from 3.0 to 6.5 and hypocentral distances ranging from 4 to 1000 km. The non-linear mixed-effect (NLMEs) and logistic regression techniques (to account for zero duration) were used to fit predictive <span class="hlt">models</span> to the duration data. The bracketed duration was found to be decreased with an increase in the hypocentral distance and increased with an increase in the magnitude of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The significant duration was found to be increased with the increase in the magnitude and hypocentral distance of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Both significant and bracketed durations were predicted higher in rock sites than in soil sites. The predictive relationships developed herein are compared with the existing relationships for interplate and intraplate regions. The developed relationship for bracketed duration predicts lower durations for rock and soil sites. However, the developed relationship for a significant duration predicts lower durations up to a certain distance and thereafter predicts higher durations compared to the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JESS..119..553A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JESS..119..553A"><span id="translatedtitle">The 2007 Bengkulu <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, its rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> and implications for seismic hazard</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ambikapathy, A.; Catherine, J. K.; Gahalaut, V. K.; Narsaiah, M.; Bansal, A.; Mahesh, P.</p> <p>2010-08-01</p> <p>The 12 September 2007 great Bengkulu <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ( M w 8.4) occurred on the west coast of Sumatra about 130 km SW of Bengkulu. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was followed by two strong aftershocks of M w 7.9 and 7.0. We estimate coseismic offsets due to the mainshock, derived from near-field Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements from nine continuous SuGAr sites operated by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) group. Using a forward <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach, we estimated slip distribution on the causative rupture of the 2007 Bengkulu <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and found two patches of large slip, one located north of the mainshock epicenter and the other, under the Pagai Islands. Both patches of large slip on the rupture occurred under the island belt and shallow water. Thus, despite its great magnitude, this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> did not generate a major tsunami. Further, we suggest that the occurrence of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the subduction zone on either side of the Siberut Island region, might have led to the increase in static stress in the region, where the last great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in 1797 and where there is evidence of strain accumulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10184921','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10184921"><span id="translatedtitle">An exact renormalization <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and material failure: Statics and dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Newman, W.I. |; Gabrielov, A.M. |; Durand, T.A.; Phoenix, S.L.; Turcotte, D.L.</p> <p>1993-09-12</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> events are well-known to prams a variety of empirical scaling laws. Accordingly, renormalization methods offer some hope for understanding why <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> statistics behave in a similar way over orders of magnitude of energy. We review the progress made in the use of renormalization methods in approaching the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> problem. In particular, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events have been <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by previous investigators as hierarchically organized bundles of fibers with equal load sharing. We consider by computational and analytic means the failure properties of such bundles of fibers, a problem that may be treated exactly by renormalization methods. We show, independent of the specific properties of an individual fiber, that the stress and time thresholds for failure of fiber bundles obey universal, albeit different, staling laws with respect to the size of the bundles. The application of these results to fracture processes in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events and in engineering materials helps to provide insight into some of the observed patterns and scaling-in particular, the apparent weakening of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> faults and composite materials with respect to size, and the apparent emergence of relatively well-defined stresses and times when failure is seemingly assured.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22666380','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22666380"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> psychological responses to the Great East Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and nuclear incident.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Goodwin, Robin; Takahashi, Masahito; Sun, Shaojing; Gaines, Stanley O</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The Great East Japan (Tōhoku/Kanto) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of March 2011 was followed by a major tsunami and nuclear incident. Several previous studies have suggested a number of psychological responses to such disasters. However, few previous studies have <span class="hlt">modelled</span> individual differences in the risk perceptions of major events, or the implications of these perceptions for relevant behaviours. We conducted a survey specifically examining responses to the Great Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and nuclear incident, with data collected 11-13 weeks following these events. 844 young respondents completed a questionnaire in three regions of Japan; Miyagi (close to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and leaking nuclear plants), Tokyo/Chiba (approximately 220 km from the nuclear plants), and Western Japan (Yamaguchi and Nagasaki, some 1000 km from the plants). Results indicated significant regional differences in risk perception, with greater concern over <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risks in Tokyo than in Miyagi or Western Japan. Structural equation analyses showed that shared normative concerns about <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and nuclear risks, conservation values, lack of trust in governmental advice about the nuclear hazard, and poor personal control over the nuclear incident were positively correlated with perceived <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and nuclear risks. These risk perceptions further predicted specific outcomes (e.g. modifying homes, avoiding going outside, contemplating leaving Japan). The strength and significance of these pathways varied by region. Mental health and practical implications of these findings are discussed in the light of the continuing uncertainties in Japan following the March 2011 events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.205..509R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.205..509R"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> potential and magnitude limits inferred from a geodetic strain-rate <span class="hlt">model</span> for southern Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rong, Y.; Bird, P.; Jackson, D. D.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The project Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE), completed in 2013, presents significant improvements over previous regional seismic hazard <span class="hlt">modeling</span> efforts. The Global Strain Rate Map v2.1, sponsored by the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> Foundation and built on a large set of self-consistent geodetic GPS velocities, was released in 2014. To check the SHARE seismic source <span class="hlt">models</span> that were based mainly on historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and active fault data, we first evaluate the SHARE historical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues and demonstrate that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitudes are acceptable. Then, we construct an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential <span class="hlt">model</span> using the Global Strain Rate Map data. SHARE <span class="hlt">models</span> provided parameters from which magnitude-frequency distributions can be specified for each of 437 seismic source zones covering most of Europe. Because we are interested in proposed magnitude limits, and the original zones had insufficient data for accurate estimates, we combine zones into five groups according to SHARE's estimates of maximum magnitude. Using the strain rates, we calculate tectonic moment rates for each group. Next, we infer seismicity rates from the tectonic moment rates and compare them with historical and SHARE seismicity rates. For two of the groups, the tectonic moment rates are higher than the seismic moment rates of the SHARE <span class="hlt">models</span>. Consequently, the rates of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> forecast by the SHARE <span class="hlt">models</span> are lower than those inferred from tectonic moment rate. In fact, the SHARE <span class="hlt">models</span> forecast higher seismicity rates than the historical rates, which indicate that the authors of SHARE were aware of the potentially higher seismic activities in the zones. For one group, the tectonic moment rate is lower than the seismic moment rates forecast by the SHARE <span class="hlt">models</span>. As a result, the rates of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in that group forecast by the SHARE <span class="hlt">model</span> are higher than those inferred from tectonic moment rate, but lower than what the historical data show. For the other two</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........71R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........71R"><span id="translatedtitle">Combining Dynamic <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and Tsunami <span class="hlt">Models</span> With Case Studies Offshore Alaska and Southern California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ryan, Kenny</p> <p></p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and their corresponding tsunamis pose significant hazard to popu- lated regions around the world. Therefore, it is critically important that we seek to more fully understand the physics of the combined <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-tsunami system. One way to address this goal is through numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. The work discussed herein focuses on combining dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span> through the use of the Finite Element Method (FEM) and the Finite Difference Method (FDM). Dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> ac- count for the force that the entire fault system exerts on each individual element of the <span class="hlt">model</span> for each time step, so that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture takes a path based on the physics of the <span class="hlt">model</span>; dynamic tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span> can incorporate water height variations to produce water wave formation, propagation, and inundation. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to some important concepts and equations of elastodynamics and fluid dynamics as well as a brief example of the FEM. In Chapter 2, we investigate the 3-D effects of realistic fault dynamics on slip, free surface deformation, and resulting tsunami formation from an Mw 9 megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> offshore Southern Alaska. Corresponding tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span>, which use a FDM to solve linear long-wave equations, match sea floor deformation, in time, to the free surface deformation from the rupture simulations. Tsunamis generated in this region could have large adverse effects on Pacific coasts. In Chapter 3, we construct a 3-D dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on a reverse fault structure offshore Southern California to <span class="hlt">model</span> the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in this area. The corresponding tsunami <span class="hlt">model</span> uses final seafloor displacements from the rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> as initial conditions to compute local propagation and inundation, resulting in large peak tsunami amplitudes northward and eastward due to site and path effects. In Chapter 4, we begin to evaluate 2-D <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source parameters</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.1181A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.1181A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazard and Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: current status of the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (GEM) initiative in the region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ayele, Atalay; Midzi, Vunganai; Ateba, Bekoa; Mulabisana, Thifhelimbilu; Marimira, Kwangwari; Hlatywayo, Dumisani J.; Akpan, Ofonime; Amponsah, Paulina; Georges, Tuluka M.; Durrheim, Ray</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Large magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have been observed in Sub-Saharan Africa in the recent past, such as the Machaze event of 2006 (Mw, 7.0) in Mozambique and the 2009 Karonga <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 6.2) in Malawi. The December 13, 1910 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Ms = 7.3) in the Rukwa rift (Tanzania) is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events known to have occurred in East Africa. The overall <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard in the region is on the lower side compared to other <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prone areas in the globe. However, the risk level is high enough for it to receive attention of the African governments and the donor community. The latest <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard map for the sub-Saharan Africa was done in 1999 and updating is long overdue as several development activities in the construction industry is booming allover sub-Saharan Africa. To this effect, regional seismologists are working together under the GEM (Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span>) framework to improve incomplete, inhomogeneous and uncertain catalogues. The working group is also contributing to the UNESCO-IGCP (SIDA) 601 project and assessing all possible sources of data for the catalogue as well as for the seismotectonic characteristics that will help to develop a reasonable hazard <span class="hlt">model</span> in the region. In the current progress, it is noted that the region is more seismically active than we thought. This demands the coordinated effort of the regional experts to systematically compile all available information for a better output so as to mitigate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk in the sub-Saharan Africa.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70147090','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70147090"><span id="translatedtitle">Time‐dependent renewal‐<span class="hlt">model</span> probabilities when date of last <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is unknown</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Field, Edward H.; Jordan, Thomas H.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>We derive time-dependent, renewal-<span class="hlt">model</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-<span class="hlt">model</span> probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exceeds ~20% of the mean recurrence interval. We also derive probabilities for the case in which the last event is further constrained to have occurred before historical record keeping began (the historic open interval), which can only serve to increase <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities for typically applied renewal <span class="hlt">models</span>.We conclude that accounting for the historic open interval can improve long-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture forecasts for California and elsewhere.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S53A4484I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S53A4484I"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimation of completeness magnitude with a Bayesian <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of daily and weekly variations in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Iwata, T.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In the analysis of seismic activity, assessment of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability of a seismic network is a fundamental issue. For this assessment, the completeness magnitude Mc, the minimum magnitude above which all <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are recorded, is frequently estimated. In most cases, Mc is estimated for an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog of duration longer than several weeks. However, owing to human activity, noise level in seismic data is higher on weekdays than on weekends, so that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability has a weekly variation [e.g., Atef et al., 2009, BSSA]; the consideration of such a variation makes a significant contribution to the precise assessment of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability and Mc. For a quantitative evaluation of the weekly variation, we introduced the statistical <span class="hlt">model</span> of a magnitude-frequency distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> covering an entire magnitude range [Ogata & Katsura, 1993, GJI]. The frequency distribution is represented as the product of the Gutenberg-Richter law and a detection rate function. Then, the weekly variation in one of the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters, which corresponds to the magnitude where the detection rate of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is 50%, was estimated. Because <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability also have a daily variation [e.g., Iwata, 2013, GJI], and the weekly and daily variations were estimated simultaneously by adopting a modification of a Bayesian smoothing spline method for temporal change in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability developed in Iwata [2014, Aust. N. Z. J. Stat.]. Based on the estimated variations in the parameter, the value of Mc was estimated. In this study, the Japan Meteorological Agency catalog from 2006 to 2010 was analyzed; this dataset is the same as analyzed in Iwata [2013] where only the daily variation in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detectability was considered in the estimation of Mc. A rectangular grid with 0.1° intervals covering in and around Japan was deployed, and the value of Mc was estimated for each gridpoint. Consequently, a clear weekly variation was revealed; the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.tmp....1T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.tmp....1T"><span id="translatedtitle">Dynamic Rupture Simulations Based on the Characterized Source <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsuda, Kenichi; Iwase, Satoshi; Uratani, Hiroaki; Ogawa, Sachio; Watanabe, Takahide; Miyakoshi, Jun'ichi; Ampuero, Jean Paul</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, M w 9.0) occurred on the Japan Trench and caused a devastating tsunami. Studies of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> have revealed complex features of its rupture process. In particular, the shallow parts of the fault (near the trench) hosted large slip and long period seismic wave radiation, whereas the deep parts of the rupture (near the coast) hosted smaller slip and strong radiation of short period seismic waves. Understanding such depth-dependent feature of the rupture process of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is necessary as it may occur during future mega-thrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in this and other regions. In this study, we investigate the "characterized source <span class="hlt">model</span>" of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> through dynamic rupture simulations. This source <span class="hlt">model</span> divides the fault plane into several parts characterized by different size and frictional strength (main asperity, background area, etc.) and is widely used in Japan for the prediction of strong ground motion and tsunami through kinematic rupture simulations. Our characterized source <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> comprises a large shallow asperity with moderate frictional strength, small deep asperities with high frictional strength, a background area with low frictional strength, and an area with dynamic weakening close to the trench (low dynamic friction coefficient as arising from, e.g., thermal pressurization). The results of our dynamic rupture simulation reproduce the main depth-dependent feature of the rupture process of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We also find that the width of the area close to the trench (equal to the distance from the trench to the shallow asperity, interpreted as the size of the accretionary prism) and the presence of dynamic weakening in this area have a significant influence on the final slip distribution. These results are useful to construct characterized source <span class="hlt">models</span> for other subduction zones with different scale of the accretionary prism, such</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........76W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........76W"><span id="translatedtitle">Statistical Mechanics of Colloidal Particles in <span class="hlt">Non-Conservative</span> Force Fields</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wakil Moyses, Henrique</p> <p></p> <p>Systems that are in mechanical equilibrium but are driven away from thermodynamic equilibrium present directed motion when in a thermal bath. This thesis explores this motion when systems are out of thermodynamic equilibrium due to the presence of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> force fields. The first system we explored are Brownian vortexes. These are stochastic machines that use static <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> force fields to bias random thermal fluctuations into steadily circulating currents. The archetype for this class of systems is a colloidal sphere in an optical tweezer. Trapped near the focus of a strongly converging beam of light, the particle is displaced by random thermal kicks into the <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> part of the optical force field arising from radiation pressure, which then biases its diffusion. Assuming the particle remains localized within the trap, its time-averaged trajectory traces out a toroidal vortex. Unlike trivial Brownian vortexes, such as the biased Brownian pendulum, which circulate preferentially in the direction of the bias, the general Brownian vortex can change direction and even topology in response to temperature changes. In this thesis we introduce a theory based on a perturbative expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation for weak <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> driving. We show that the first-order solution takes the form of a modified Boltzmann relation and accounts for the rich phenomenology observed in experiments on micrometer-scale colloidal spheres in optical tweezers. Another system we explore are colloidal Janus particles composed of an optically absorbing and transparent faces. When illuminated by a defocused optical tweezer these particles swim vigorously, without requiring any chemical fuel. Most surprisingly, these optically activated colloidal swimmers circulate back and forth through the beam of light, tracing out regular sinuous patterns. In this thesis we propose a <span class="hlt">model</span> for this class of light-activated swimmers in which a combination of radiation</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S33A2751C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S33A2751C"><span id="translatedtitle">Seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar: <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> database, ground-motion scenarios, and probabilistic assessments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Thant, M.; Maung Maung, P.; Sieh, K.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>We have constructed an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and fault database, conducted a series of ground-shaking scenarios, and proposed seismic hazard maps for all of Myanmar and hazard curves for selected cities. Our <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> database integrates the ISC, ISC-GEM and global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, and includes harmonized magnitude scales without duplicate events. Our active fault database includes active fault data from previous studies. Using the parameters from these updated databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and the elapse time of last events), we have determined the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the <span class="hlt">modelled</span> ground motions to the felt intensities of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Through the case of the 1975 Bagan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we determined that Atkinson and Moore's (2003) scenario using the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) fits the behaviours of the subduction events best. Also, the 2011 Tarlay and 2012 Thabeikkyin events suggested the GMPEs of Akkar and Cagnan (2010) fit crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> best. We thus incorporated the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions based on Vs30 (the average shear-velocity down to 30 m depth) from analysis of topographic slope and microtremor array measurements to assess seismic hazard. The hazard is highest in regions close to the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar as seismic sources there have <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur at short intervals and/or last events occurred a long time ago. The hazard curves for the cities of Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or with a low Vs30, e.g., the downtown of Sagaing and Shwemawdaw Pagoda in Bago.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ChPhy..16.2665L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ChPhy..16.2665L"><span id="translatedtitle">Lie symmetry algebra of one-dimensional <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> dynamical systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Cui-Mei; Wu, Run-Heng; Fu, Jing-Li</p> <p>2007-09-01</p> <p>Lie symmetry algebra of linear <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> dynamical systems is studied in this paper. By using 1-1 mapping, the Lie point and Lie contact symmetry algebras are obtained from two independent solutions of the one-dimensional linear equations of motion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4660942','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4660942"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span> current-driven dynamics: beyond the nanoscale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Todorov, Tchavdar N; Dundas, Daniel</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Summary Long metallic nanowires combine crucial factors for <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> current-driven atomic motion. These systems have degenerate vibrational frequencies, clustered about a Kohn anomaly in the dispersion relation, that can couple under current to form nonequilibrium modes of motion growing exponentially in time. Such motion is made possible by <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> current-induced forces on atoms, and we refer to it generically as the waterwheel effect. Here the connection between the waterwheel effect and the stimulated directional emission of phonons propagating along the electron flow is discussed in an intuitive manner. Nonadiabatic molecular dynamics show that waterwheel modes self-regulate by reducing the current and by populating modes in nearby frequency, leading to a dynamical steady state in which <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> forces are counter-balanced by the electronic friction. The waterwheel effect can be described by an appropriate effective nonequilibrium dynamical response matrix. We show that the current-induced parts of this matrix in metallic systems are long-ranged, especially at low bias. This nonlocality is essential for the characterisation of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> atomic dynamics under current beyond the nanoscale. PMID:26665086</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1072/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1072/"><span id="translatedtitle">Comprehensive Areal <span class="hlt">Model</span> of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Induced Landslides: Technical Specification and User Guide</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>This report describes the complete design of a comprehensive areal <span class="hlt">model</span> of earthquakeinduced landslides (CAMEL). This report presents the design process, technical specification of CAMEL. It also provides a guide to using the CAMEL source code and template ESRI ArcGIS map document file for applying CAMEL, both of which can be obtained by contacting the authors. CAMEL is a regional-scale <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslide hazard developed using fuzzy logic systems. CAMEL currently estimates areal landslide concentration (number of landslides per square kilometer) of six aggregated types of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides - three types each for rock and soil.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027428','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027428"><span id="translatedtitle">Rapid tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source parameters: Far-field and local applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Geist, E.L.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>Rapid tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span> have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> information (magnitude and hypocenter). <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami <span class="hlt">models</span> are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those <span class="hlt">models</span>. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source <span class="hlt">model</span>, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, <span class="hlt">model</span>-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005PApGe.162.1113S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005PApGe.162.1113S"><span id="translatedtitle">Power-law Distributions of Offspring and Generation Numbers in Branching <span class="hlt">Models</span> of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Triggering</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saichev, A.; Helmstetter, A.; Sornette, D.</p> <p>2005-06-01</p> <p>We consider a general stochastic branching process,which is relevant to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as well as to many other systems, and we study the distributions of the total number of offsprings (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We apply our results to a branching <span class="hlt">model</span> of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) <span class="hlt">model</span>. The ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> assumes that each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can trigger other <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (“aftershocks”). An aftershock sequence results in this <span class="hlt">model</span> from the cascade of aftershocks of each past <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (“fertility”), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime in which the distribution of fertilities μ is characterized by a power law ~1/μ1+γ. For <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> we expect such a power-distribution of fertilities with γ=b/α based on the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution ~ 10-bm and on the increase ~ 10-αm of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude m. We derive the asymptotic distributions pr(r) and pg(g) of the total number r of offsprings and of the total number g of generations until extinction following a mainshock. In the regime γ < 2 for which the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance, we find This should be compared with the distributions obtained for standard branching processes with finite variance. These predictions are checked by numerical simulations. Our results apply directly to the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> whose preferred values α=0.8 1 and b=1 puts it in the regime where the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1817231S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1817231S"><span id="translatedtitle">Mechanisms of postseismic relaxation after a great subduction <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> constrained by cross-scale thermomechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> and geodetic observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>According to conventional view, postseismic relaxation process after a great megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is dominated by fault-controlled afterslip during first few months to year, and later by visco-elastic relaxation in mantle wedge. We test this idea by cross-scale thermomechanical <span class="hlt">models</span> of seismic cycle that employs elasticity, mineral-physics constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. As initial conditions for the <span class="hlt">models</span> we use thermomechanical <span class="hlt">models</span> of subduction zones at geological time-scale including a narrow subduction channel with low static friction for two settings, similar to the Southern Chile in the region of the great Chile <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> of 1960 and Japan in the region of Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> of 2011. We next introduce in the same <span class="hlt">models</span> classic rate-and state friction law in subduction channels, leading to stick-slip instability. The <span class="hlt">models</span> start to generate spontaneous <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences and <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters are set to closely replicate co-seismic deformations of Chile and Japan <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In order to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles we use adaptive time-step algorithm changing integration step from 40 sec during the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to minute-5 year during postseismic and interseismic processes. We show that for the case of the Chile <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> visco-elastic relaxation in the mantle wedge becomes dominant relaxation process already since 1 hour after the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, while for the smaller Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> this happens some days after the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We also show that our <span class="hlt">model</span> for Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is consistent with the geodetic observations for the day-to-4year time range. We will demonstrate and discuss <span class="hlt">modeled</span> deformation patterns during seismic cycles and identify the regions where the effects of afterslip and visco-elastic relaxation can be best distinguished.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.8883P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.8883P"><span id="translatedtitle">An <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture Forecast <span class="hlt">model</span> for central Italy submitted to CSEP project</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pace, B.; Peruzza, L.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>We defined a seismogenic source <span class="hlt">model</span> for central Italy and computed the relative forecast scenario, in order to submit the results to the CSEP (Collaboratory for the study of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Predictability, www.cseptesting.org) project. The goal of CSEP project is developing a virtual, distributed laboratory that supports a wide range of scientific prediction experiments in multiple regional or global natural laboratories, and Italy is the first region in Europe for which fully prospective testing is planned. The <span class="hlt">model</span> we propose is essentially the Layered Seismogenic Source for Central Italy (LaSS-CI) we published in 2006 (Pace et al., 2006). It is based on three different layers of sources: the first one collects the individual faults liable to generate major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (M >5.5); the second layer is given by the instrumental seismicity analysis of the past two decades, which allows us to evaluate the background seismicity (M ~<5.0). The third layer utilizes all the instrumental <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and the historical events not correlated to known structures (4.5<M<6), by separating them into seismotectonic provinces shaped on a geological-structural basis. The second and third layers act as poissonian sources, while a simplified time-dependent hypothesis has been introduced for some individual sources, computing the conditional probability of occurrence of characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by Brownian passage time distribution. Beside the original <span class="hlt">model</span>, updated <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture forecasts only for individual sources are released too, in the light of recent analyses (Peruzza et al., 2008; Zoeller et al., 2008). We computed forecasts based on the LaSS-CI <span class="hlt">model</span> for two time-windows: 5 and 10 years. Each <span class="hlt">model</span> to be tested defines a forecasted <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate in magnitude bins of 0.1 unit steps in the range M5-9, for the periods 1st April 2009 to 1st April 2014, and 1st April 2009 to 1st April 2019. B. Pace, L. Peruzza, G. Lavecchia, and P. Boncio (2006) Layered Seismogenic Source</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113961A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113961A"><span id="translatedtitle">GEM1: First-year <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and IT activities for the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and communicating <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss <span class="hlt">modeling</span> tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all <span class="hlt">modeling</span> activities, incorporate existing detailed <span class="hlt">models</span> where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and <span class="hlt">models</span>. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible <span class="hlt">modeling</span> environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss <span class="hlt">models</span> to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5891099','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5891099"><span id="translatedtitle">Family number <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> induced by the supersymmetric mixing of scalar leptons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Levine, M.J.S.</p> <p>1987-08-01</p> <p>The most egregious aspect of (N = 1) supersymmetric theories is that each particle state is accompanied by a 'super-partner', a state with identical quantum numbers save that it differs in spin by one half unit. For the leptons these are scalars and are called ''sleptons'', or scalar leptons. These consist of the charged sleptons (selectron, smuon, stau) and the scalar neutrinos ('sneutrinos'). We examine a <span class="hlt">model</span> of supersymmetry with soft breaking terms in the electroweak sector. Explicit mixing among the scalar leptons results in a number of effects, principally <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> of lepton family number. Comparison with experiment permits us to place constraints upon the <span class="hlt">model</span>. 49 refs., 12 figs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016WRR....52.9164M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016WRR....52.9164M"><span id="translatedtitle">Innovative framework to simulate the fate and transport of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> constituents in urban combined sewer catchments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Morales, V. M.; Quijano, J. C.; Schmidt, A.; Garcia, M. H.</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>We have developed a probabilistic <span class="hlt">model</span> to simulate the fate and transport of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> constituents in urban watersheds. The approach implemented here extends previous studies that rely on the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph concept to include <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> constituents. This is implemented with a factor χ that affects the transfer functions and therefore accounts for the loss (gain) of mass associated with the constituent as it travels through the watershed. Using this framework, we developed an analytical solution for the dynamics of dissolved oxygen (DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in urban networks based on the Streeter and Phelps <span class="hlt">model</span>. This <span class="hlt">model</span> breaks down the catchment into a discreet number of possible flow paths through the system, requiring less data and implementation effort than well-established deterministic <span class="hlt">models</span>. Application of the <span class="hlt">model</span> to one sewer catchment in the Chicago area with available BOD information proved its ability to predict the BOD concentration observed in the measurements. In addition, comparison of the <span class="hlt">model</span> with a calibrated Storm Water Management <span class="hlt">Model</span> (SWMM) of another sewer catchment from the Chicago area showed that the <span class="hlt">model</span> predicted the BOD concentration as well as the widely accepted SWMM. The developed <span class="hlt">model</span> proved to be a suitable alternative to simulate the fate and transport of constituents in urban catchments with limited and uncertain input data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMNH32A..02N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMNH32A..02N"><span id="translatedtitle">Toward a Global <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Predicting <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Induced Landslides in Near-Real Time</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nowicki, M. A.; Wald, D. J.; Hamburger, M. W.; Hearne, M.; Thompson, E.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We present a newly developed statistical <span class="hlt">model</span> for estimating the distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-triggered landslides in near-real time, which is designed for use in the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response (PAGER) and ShakeCast systems. We use standardized estimates of ground shaking from the USGS ShakeMap Atlas 2.0 to develop an empirical landslide probability <span class="hlt">model</span> by combining shaking estimates with broadly available landslide susceptibility proxies, including topographic slope, surface geology, and climatic parameters. While the initial <span class="hlt">model</span> was based on four <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for which digitally mapped landslide inventories and well constrained ShakeMaps are available--the Guatemala (1976), Northridge, California (1994), Chi-Chi, Taiwan (1999), and Wenchuan, China (2008) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, our improved <span class="hlt">model</span> includes observations from approximately ten other events from a variety of tectonic and geomorphic settings for which we have obtained landslide inventories. Using logistic regression, this database is used to build a predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> of the probability of landslide occurrence. We assess the performance of the regression <span class="hlt">model</span> using statistical goodness-of-fit metrics to determine which combination of the tested landslide proxies provides the optimum prediction of observed landslides while minimizing ';false alarms' in non-landslide zones. Our initial results indicate strong correlations with peak ground acceleration and maximum slope, and weaker correlations with surface geological and soil wetness proxies. In terms of the original four events included, the global <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts landslides most accurately when applied to the Wenchuan and Chi-Chi events, and less accurately when applied to the Northridge and Guatemala datasets. Combined with near-real time ShakeMaps, the <span class="hlt">model</span> can be used to make generalized predictions of whether or not landslides are likely to occur (and if so, where) for future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> around the globe, and these estimates</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030430','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030430"><span id="translatedtitle">Regional intensity attenuation <span class="hlt">models</span> for France and the estimation of magnitude and location of historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Bakun, W.H.; Scotti, O.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Intensity assignments for 33 calibration <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were used to develop intensity attenuation <span class="hlt">models</span> for the Alps, Armorican, Provence, Pyrenees and Rhine regions of France. Intensity decreases with ?? most rapidly in the French Alps, Provence and Pyrenees regions, and least rapidly in the Armorican and Rhine regions. The comparable Armorican and Rhine region attenuation <span class="hlt">models</span> are aggregated into a French stable continental region <span class="hlt">model</span> and the comparable Provence and Pyrenees region <span class="hlt">models</span> are aggregated into a Southern France <span class="hlt">model</span>. We analyse MSK intensity assignments using the technique of Bakun & Wentworth, which provides an objective method for estimating epicentral location and intensity magnitude MI. MI for the 1356 October 18 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the French stable continental region is 6.6 for a location near Basle, Switzerland, and moment magnitude M is 5.9-7.2 at the 95 per cent (??2??) confidence level. MI for the 1909 June 11 Trevaresse (Lambesc) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> near Marseilles in the Southern France region is 5.5, and M is 4.9-6.0 at the 95 per cent confidence level. Bootstrap resampling techniques are used to calculate objective, reproducible 67 per cent and 95 per cent confidence regions for the locations of historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. These confidence regions for location provide an attractive alternative to the macroseismic epicentre and qualitative location uncertainties used heretofore. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.5812H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.5812H"><span id="translatedtitle">Large Historical <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and Tsunami Hazards in the Western Mediterranean: Source Characteristics and <span class="hlt">Modelling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harbi, Assia; Meghraoui, Mustapha; Belabbes, Samir; Maouche, Said</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>The western Mediterranean region was the site of numerous large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the past. Most of these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are located at the East-West trending Africa-Eurasia plate boundary and along the coastline of North Africa. The most recent recorded tsunamigenic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred in 2003 at Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Mw 6.8) and generated ~ 2-m-high tsunami wave. The destructive wave affected the Balearic Islands and Almeria in southern Spain and Carloforte in southern Sardinia (Italy). The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> provided a unique opportunity to gather instrumental records of seismic waves and tide gauges in the western Mediterranean. A database that includes a historical catalogue of main events, seismic sources and related fault parameters was prepared in order to assess the tsunami hazard of this region. In addition to the analysis of the 2003 records, we study the 1790 Oran and 1856 Jijel historical tsunamigenic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Io = IX and X, respectively) that provide detailed observations on the heights and extension of past tsunamis and damage in coastal zones. We performed the <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of wave propagation using NAMI-DANCE code and tested different fault sources from synthetic tide gauges. We observe that the characteristics of seismic sources control the size and directivity of tsunami wave propagation on both northern and southern coasts of the western Mediterranean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PApGe.172...23T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PApGe.172...23T"><span id="translatedtitle">The Negative Binomial Distribution as a Renewal <span class="hlt">Model</span> for the Recurrence of Large <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tejedor, Alejandro; Gómez, Javier B.; Pacheco, Amalio F.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The negative binomial distribution is presented as the waiting time distribution of a cyclic Markov <span class="hlt">model</span>. This cycle simulates the seismic cycle in a fault. As an example, this <span class="hlt">model</span>, which can describe recurrences with aperiodicities between 0 and 0.5, is used to fit the Parkfield, California <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> series in the San Andreas Fault. The performance of the <span class="hlt">model</span> in the forecasting is expressed in terms of error diagrams and compared with other recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> from literature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198.1159H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198.1159H"><span id="translatedtitle">A smoothed stochastic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate <span class="hlt">model</span> considering seismicity and fault moment release for Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hiemer, S.; Woessner, J.; Basili, R.; Danciu, L.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>We present a time-independent gridded <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our <span class="hlt">model</span> is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and fault moment-rate densities. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> constitutes one branch of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">model</span> logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard <span class="hlt">model</span> released by the EU-FP7 project `Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe' (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our <span class="hlt">model</span> and SHARE's area source <span class="hlt">model</span> (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our <span class="hlt">model</span>'s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198..671W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198..671W"><span id="translatedtitle">Joint <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversions using seismo-geodesy and 3-D earth <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Weston, J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Funning, G. J.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>A joint <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversion technique is presented that uses InSAR and long-period teleseismic data, and, for the first time, takes 3-D Earth structure into account when <span class="hlt">modelling</span> seismic surface and body waves. Ten average source parameters (Moment, latitude, longitude, depth, strike, dip, rake, length, width and slip) are estimated; hence, the technique is potentially useful for rapid source inversions of moderate magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using multiple data sets. Unwrapped interferograms and long-period seismic data are jointly inverted for the location, fault geometry and seismic moment, using a hybrid downhill Powell-Monte Carlo algorithm. While the InSAR data are <span class="hlt">modelled</span> assuming a rectangular dislocation in a homogeneous half-space, seismic data are <span class="hlt">modelled</span> using the spectral element method for a 3-D earth <span class="hlt">model</span>. The effect of noise and lateral heterogeneity on the inversions is investigated by carrying out realistic synthetic tests for various <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with different faulting mechanisms and magnitude (Mw 6.0-6.6). Synthetic tests highlight the improvement in the constraint of fault geometry (strike, dip and rake) and moment when InSAR and seismic data are combined. Tests comparing the effect of using a 1-D or 3-D earth <span class="hlt">model</span> show that long-period surface waves are more sensitive than long-period body waves to the change in earth <span class="hlt">model</span>. Incorrect source parameters, particularly incorrect fault dip angles, can compensate for systematic errors in the assumed Earth structure, leading to an acceptable data fit despite large discrepancies in source parameters. Three real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are also investigated: Eureka Valley, California (1993 May 17, Mw 6.0), Aiquile, Bolivia (1998 February 22, Mw 6.6) and Zarand, Iran (2005 May 22, Mw 6.5). These events are located in different tectonic environments and show large discrepancies between InSAR and seismically determined source <span class="hlt">models</span>. Despite the 40-50 km discrepancies in location between previous geodetic and</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21254893','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21254893"><span id="translatedtitle">Precursory measure of interoccurrence time associated with large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the Burridge-Knopoff <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hasumi, Tomohiro</p> <p>2008-11-13</p> <p>We studied the statistical properties of interoccurrence time i.e., time intervals between successive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the two-dimensional (2D) Burridge-Knopoff (BK) <span class="hlt">model</span>, and have found that these statistics can be classified into three types: the subcritical state, the critical state, and the supercritical state. The survivor function of interoccurrence time is well fitted by the Zipf-Mandelbrot type power law in the subcritical regime. However, the fitting accuracy of this distribution tends to be worse as the system changes from the subcritical state to the supercritical state. Because the critical phase of a fault system in nature changes from the subcritical state to the supercritical state prior to a forthcoming large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we suggest that the fitting accuracy of the survivor distribution can be another precursory measure associated with large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007Tectp.438...33O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007Tectp.438...33O"><span id="translatedtitle">Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from empirical Green's functions <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Oth, Adrien; Wenzel, Friedemann; Radulian, Mircea</p> <p>2007-06-01</p> <p>Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 ( MW = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 ( MW = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 ( MW = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63-104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering symposium, 151-156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering: integrated training in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453-554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ MW ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source <span class="hlt">model</span> and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531-2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S41A1999S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S41A1999S"><span id="translatedtitle">Benefits of multidisciplinary collaboration for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> casualty estimation <span class="hlt">models</span>: recent case studies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>So, E.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> casualty loss estimation, which depends primarily on building-specific casualty rates, has long suffered from a lack of cross-disciplinary collaboration in post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data gathering. An increase in our understanding of what contributes to casualties in <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> involve coordinated data-gathering efforts amongst disciplines; these are essential for improved global casualty estimation <span class="hlt">models</span>. It is evident from examining past casualty loss <span class="hlt">models</span> and reviewing field data collected from recent events, that generalized casualty rates cannot be applied globally for different building types, even within individual countries. For a particular structure type, regional and topographic building design effects, combined with variable material and workmanship quality all contribute to this multi-variant outcome. In addition, social factors affect building-specific casualty rates, including social status and education levels, and human behaviors in general, in that they modify egress and survivability rates. Without considering complex physical pathways, loss <span class="hlt">models</span> purely based on historic casualty data, or even worse, rates derived from other countries, will be of very limited value. What’s more, as the world’s population, housing stock, and living and cultural environments change, methods of loss <span class="hlt">modeling</span> must accommodate these variables, especially when considering casualties. To truly take advantage of observed <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> losses, not only do damage surveys need better coordination of international and national reconnaissance teams, but these teams must integrate difference areas of expertise including engineering, public health and medicine. Research is needed to find methods to achieve consistent and practical ways of collecting and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> casualties in <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. International collaboration will also be necessary to transfer such expertise and resources to the communities in the cities which most need it. Coupling the theories and findings from</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8194R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8194R"><span id="translatedtitle">A new statistical time-dependent <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rotondi, Renata; Varini, Elisa</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The long-term recurrence of strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is often <span class="hlt">modelled</span> by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing hazard functions) are more appropriate. Short-term <span class="hlt">models</span> mainly fit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clusters due to the tendency of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to trigger other <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; in this case, self-exciting point processes with non-increasing hazard are especially suitable. In order to provide a unified framework for analyzing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs, Schoenberg and Bolt proposed the SELC (Short-term Exciting Long-term Correcting) <span class="hlt">model</span> (BSSA, 2000) and Varini employed a state-space <span class="hlt">model</span> for estimating the different phases of a seismic cycle (PhD Thesis, 2005). Both attempts are combinations of long- and short-term <span class="hlt">models</span>, but results are not completely satisfactory, due to the different scales at which these <span class="hlt">models</span> appear to operate. In this study, we split a seismic sequence in two groups: the leader events, whose magnitude exceeds a threshold magnitude, and the remaining ones considered as subordinate events. The leader events are assumed to follow a well-known self-correcting point process named stress release <span class="hlt">model</span> (Vere-Jones, J. Phys. Earth, 1978; Bebbington & Harte, GJI, 2003, Varini & Rotondi, Env. Ecol. Stat., 2015). In the interval between two subsequent leader events, subordinate events are expected to cluster at the beginning (aftershocks) and at the end (foreshocks) of that interval; hence, they are <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by a failure processes that allows bathtub-shaped hazard function. In particular, we have examined the generalized Weibull distributions, a large family that contains distributions with different bathtub-shaped hazard as well as the standard Weibull distribution (Lai, Springer, 2014). The <span class="hlt">model</span> is fitted to a dataset of Italian historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and the results of Bayesian inference are shown.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013784','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70013784"><span id="translatedtitle">Forecast <span class="hlt">model</span> for great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at the Nankai Trough subduction zone</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stuart, W.D.</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> instability <span class="hlt">model</span> is formulated for recurring great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at the Nankai Trough subduction zone in southwest Japan. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is quasistatic, two-dimensional, and has a displacement and velocity dependent constitutive law applied at the fault plane. A constant rate of fault slip at depth represents forcing due to relative motion of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. The <span class="hlt">model</span> simulates fault slip and stress for all parts of repeated <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles, including post-, inter-, pre- and coseismic stages. Calculated ground uplift is in agreement with most of the main features of elevation changes observed before and after the M=8.1 1946 Nankaido <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. In <span class="hlt">model</span> simulations, accelerating fault slip has two time-scales. The first time-scale is several years long and is interpreted as an intermediate-term precursor. The second time-scale is a few days long and is interpreted as a short-term precursor. Accelerating fault slip on both time-scales causes anomalous elevation changes of the ground surface over the fault plane of 100 mm or less within 50 km of the fault trace. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17393560','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17393560"><span id="translatedtitle">Neural network <span class="hlt">models</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude prediction using multiple seismicity indicators.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Panakkat, Ashif; Adeli, Hojjat</p> <p>2007-02-01</p> <p>Neural networks are investigated for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the following month based on the analysis of eight mathematically computed parameters known as seismicity indicators. The indicators are selected based on the Gutenberg-Richter and characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude distribution and also on the conclusions drawn by recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction studies. Since there is no known established mathematical or even empirical relationship between these indicators and the location and magnitude of a succeeding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in a particular time window, the problem is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> using three different neural networks: a feed-forward Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation (LMBP) neural network, a recurrent neural network, and a radial basis function (RBF) neural network. Prediction accuracies of the <span class="hlt">models</span> are evaluated using four different statistical measures: the probability of detection, the false alarm ratio, the frequency bias, and the true skill score or R score. The <span class="hlt">models</span> are trained and tested using data for two seismically different regions: Southern California and the San Francisco bay region. Overall the recurrent neural network <span class="hlt">model</span> yields the best prediction accuracies compared with LMBP and RBF networks. While at the present <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction cannot be made with a high degree of certainty this research provides a scientific approach for evaluating the short-term seismic hazard potential of a region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21076231','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21076231"><span id="translatedtitle">Interoccurrence time statistics in the two-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hasumi, Tomohiro</p> <p>2007-08-15</p> <p>We have numerically investigated statistical properties of the so-called interoccurrence time or the waiting time, i.e., the time interval between successive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, based on the two-dimensional (2D) spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) <span class="hlt">model</span>, selecting the velocity-weakening property as the constitutive friction law. The statistical properties of frequency distribution and the cumulative distribution of the interoccurrence time are discussed by tuning the dynamical parameters, namely, a stiffness and frictional property of a fault. We optimize these <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters to reproduce the interoccurrence time statistics in nature; the frequency and cumulative distribution can be described by the power law and Zipf-Mandelbrot type power law, respectively. In an optimal case, the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter law and the ratio of wave propagation velocity are in agreement with those derived from real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. As the threshold of magnitude is increased, the interoccurrence time distribution tends to follow an exponential distribution. Hence it is suggested that a temporal sequence of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, aside from small-magnitude events, is a Poisson process, which is observed in nature. We found that the interoccurrence time statistics derived from the 2D BK (original) <span class="hlt">model</span> can efficiently reproduce that of real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, so that the <span class="hlt">model</span> can be recognized as a realistic one in view of interoccurrence time statistics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PApGe.170.1567S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PApGe.170.1567S"><span id="translatedtitle">Tsunami Source of the 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Inferred from Tsunami Field Survey and Waveform <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Satake, Kenji; Nishimura, Yuichi; Putra, Purna Sulastya; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Sunendar, Haris; Fujii, Yushiro; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Latief, Hamzah; Yulianto, Eko</p> <p>2013-09-01</p> <p>The 2010 Mentawai <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (magnitude 7.7) generated a destructive tsunami that caused more than 500 casualties in the Mentawai Islands, west of Sumatra, Indonesia. Seismological analyses indicate that this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was an unusual "tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>," which produces much larger tsunamis than expected from the seismic magnitude. We carried out a field survey to measure tsunami heights and inundation distances, an inversion of tsunami waveforms to estimate the slip distribution on the fault, and inundation <span class="hlt">modeling</span> to compare the measured and simulated tsunami heights. The measured tsunami heights at eight locations on the west coasts of North and South Pagai Island ranged from 2.5 to 9.3 m, but were mostly in the 4-7 m range. At three villages, the tsunami inundation extended more than 300 m. Interviews of local residents indicated that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground shaking was less intense than during previous large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and did not cause any damage. Inversion of tsunami waveforms recorded at nine coastal tide gauges, a nearby GPS buoy, and a DART station indicated a large slip (maximum 6.1 m) on a shallower part of the fault near the trench axis, a distribution similar to other tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The total seismic moment estimated from tsunami waveform inversion was 1.0 × 1021 Nm, which corresponded to Mw 7.9. Computed coastal tsunami heights from this tsunami source <span class="hlt">model</span> using linear equations are similar to the measured tsunami heights. The inundation heights computed by using detailed bathymetry and topography data and nonlinear equations including inundation were smaller than the measured ones. This may have been partly due to the limited resolution and accuracy of publically available bathymetry and topography data. One-dimensional run-up computations using our surveyed topography profiles showed that the computed heights were roughly similar to the measured ones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S33A2507F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S33A2507F"><span id="translatedtitle">Stochastic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of a large subduction interface <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Wellington, New Zealand</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Francois-Holden, C.; Zhao, J.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The Wellington region, home of New Zealand's capital city, is cut by a number of major right-lateral strike slip faults, and is underlain by the currently locked west-dipping subduction interface between the down going Pacific Plate, and the over-riding Australian Plate. A potential cause of significant <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss in the Wellington region is a large magnitude (perhaps 8+) "subduction <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>" on the Australia-Pacific plate interface, which lies ~23 km beneath Wellington City. "It's Our Fault" is a project involving a comprehensive study of Wellington's <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk. Its objective is to position Wellington city to become more resilient, through an encompassing study of the likelihood of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and the effects and impacts of these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on humans and the built environment. As part of the "It's Our Fault" project, we are working on estimating ground motions from potential large plate boundary <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. We present the latest results on ground motion simulations in terms of response spectra and acceleration time histories. First we characterise the potential interface rupture area based on previous geodetically-derived estimates interface of slip deficit. Then, we entertain a suitable range of source parameters, including various rupture areas, moment magnitudes, stress drops, slip distributions and rupture propagation directions. Our comprehensive study also includes simulations from historical large world subduction events translated into the New Zealand subduction context, such as the 2003 M8.3 Tokachi-Oki Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the M8.8 2010 Chili <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. To <span class="hlt">model</span> synthetic seismograms and the corresponding response spectra we employed the EXSIM code developed by Atkinson et al. (2009), with a regional attenuation <span class="hlt">model</span> based on the 3D attenuation <span class="hlt">model</span> for the lower North-Island which has been developed by Eberhart-Phillips et al. (2005). The resulting rupture scenarios all produce long duration shaking, and peak ground</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21C..03L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S21C..03L"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rate <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Injection-induced <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent <span class="hlt">model</span> of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard <span class="hlt">models</span> for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span> (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard <span class="hlt">model</span> should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRB..119.8089S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRB..119.8089S"><span id="translatedtitle">A friction to flow constitutive law and its application to a 2-D <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shimamoto, Toshihiko; Noda, Hiroyuki</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>Establishment of a constitutive law from friction to high-temperature plastic flow has long been a challenging task for solving problems such as <span class="hlt">modeling</span> <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and plate interactions. Here we propose an empirical constitutive law that describes this transitional behavior using only friction and flow parameters, with good agreements with experimental data on halite shear zones. The law predicts steady state and transient behaviors, including the dependence of the shear resistance of fault on slip rate, effective normal stress, and temperature. It also predicts a change in velocity weakening to velocity strengthening with increasing temperature, similar to the changes recognized for quartz and granite gouge under hydrothermal conditions. A slight deviation from the steady state friction law due to the involvement of plastic deformation can cause a large change in the velocity dependence. We solved seismic cycles of a fault across the lithosphere with the law using a 2-D spectral boundary integral equation method, revealing dynamic rupture extending into the aseismic zone and rich evolution of interseismic creep including slow slip prior to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Seismic slip followed by creep is consistent with natural pseudotachylytes overprinted with mylonitic deformation. Overall fault behaviors during <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles are insensitive to transient flow parameters. The friction-to-flow law merges "Christmas tree" strength profiles of the lithosphere and rate dependency fault <span class="hlt">models</span> used for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> on a unified basis. Strength profiles were drawn assuming a strain rate for the flow regime, but we emphasize that stress distribution evolves reflecting the fault behavior. A fault zone <span class="hlt">model</span> was updated based on the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70023066','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70023066"><span id="translatedtitle">Viscoelastic shear zone <span class="hlt">model</span> of a strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Pollitz, F.F.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>I examine the behavior of a two-dimensional (2-D) strike-slip fault system embedded in a 1-D elastic layer (schizosphere) overlying a uniform viscoelastic half-space (plastosphere) and within the boundaries of a finite width shear zone. The viscoelastic coupling <span class="hlt">model</span> of Savage and Prescott [1978] considers the viscoelastic response of this system, in the absence of the shear zone boundaries, to an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurring within the upper elastic layer, steady slip beneath a prescribed depth, and the superposition of the responses of multiple <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with characteristic slip occurring at regular intervals. So formulated, the viscoelastic coupling <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts that sufficiently long after initiation of the system, (1) average fault-parallel velocity at any point is the average slip rate of that side of the fault and (2) far-field velocities equal the same constant rate. Because of the sensitivity to the mechanical properties of the schizosphere-plastosphere system (i.e., elastic layer thickness, plastosphere viscosity), this <span class="hlt">model</span> has been used to infer such properties from measurements of interseismic velocity. Such inferences exploit the predicted behavior at a known time within the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. By modifying the viscoelastic coupling <span class="hlt">model</span> to satisfy the additional constraint that the absolute velocity at prescribed shear zone boundaries is constant, I find that even though the time-averaged behavior remains the same, the spatiotemporal pattern of surface deformation (particularly its temporal variation within an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle) is markedly different from that predicted by the conventional viscoelastic coupling <span class="hlt">model</span>. These differences are magnified as plastosphere viscosity is reduced or as the recurrence interval of periodic <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is lengthened. Application to the interseismic velocity field along the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault suggests that the region behaves mechanically like a ???600-km-wide shear zone accommodating 50 mm/yr fault</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13B1919K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13B1919K"><span id="translatedtitle">Planning a Preliminary program for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Loss Estimation and Emergency Operation by Three-dimensional Structural <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Active Faults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ke, M. C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Large scale <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> often cause serious economic losses and a lot of deaths. Because the seismic magnitude, the occurring time and the occurring location of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are still unable to predict now. The pre-disaster risk <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and post-disaster operation are really important works of reducing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damages. In order to understanding disaster risk of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, people usually use the technology of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> simulation to build the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios. Therefore, Point source, fault line source and fault plane source are the <span class="hlt">models</span> which often are used as a seismic source of scenarios. The assessment results made from different <span class="hlt">models</span> used on risk assessment and emergency operation of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are well, but the accuracy of the assessment results could still be upgrade. This program invites experts and scholars from Taiwan University, National Central University, and National Cheng Kung University, and tries using historical records of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, geological data and geophysical data to build underground three-dimensional structure planes of active faults. It is a purpose to replace projection fault planes by underground fault planes as similar true. The analysis accuracy of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prevention efforts can be upgraded by this database. Then these three-dimensional data will be applied to different stages of disaster prevention. For pre-disaster, results of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk analysis obtained by the three-dimensional data of the fault plane are closer to real damage. For disaster, three-dimensional data of the fault plane can be help to speculate that aftershocks distributed and serious damage area. The program has been used 14 geological profiles to build the three dimensional data of Hsinchu fault and HisnCheng faults in 2015. Other active faults will be completed in 2018 and be actually applied on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster prevention.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028804','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028804"><span id="translatedtitle">Three-dimensional compressional wavespeed <span class="hlt">model</span>, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> relocations, and focal mechanisms for the Parkfield, California, region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Thurber, C.; Zhang, H.; Waldhauser, F.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A.; Eberhart-Phillips, D.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>We present a new three-dimensional (3D) compressional vvavespeed (V p) <span class="hlt">model</span> for the Parkfield region, taking advantage of the recent seismicity associated with the 2003 San Simeon and 2004 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequences to provide increased <span class="hlt">model</span> resolution compared to the work of Eberhart-Phillips and Michael (1993) (EPM93). Taking the EPM93 3D <span class="hlt">model</span> as our starting <span class="hlt">model</span>, we invert the arrival-time data from about 2100 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and 250 shots recorded on both permanent network and temporary stations in a region 130 km northeast-southwest by 120 km northwest-southeast. We include catalog picks and cross-correlation and catalog differential times in the inversion, using the double-difference tomography method of Zhang and Thurber (2003). The principal Vp features reported by EPM93 and Michelini and McEvilly (1991) are recovered, but with locally improved resolution along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) and near the active-source profiles. We image the previously identified strong wavespeed contrast (faster on the southwest side) across most of the length of the SAF, and we also improve the image of a high Vp body on the northeast side of the fault reported by EPM93. This narrow body is at about 5- to 12-km depth and extends approximately from the locked section of the SAP to the town of Parkfield. The footwall of the thrust fault responsible for the 1983 Coalinga <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is imaged as a northeast-dipping high wavespeed body. In between, relatively low wavespeeds (<5 km/sec) extend to as much as 10-km depth. We use this <span class="hlt">model</span> to derive absolute locations for about 16,000 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from 1966 to 2005 and high-precision double-difference locations for 9,000 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from 1984 to 2005, and also to determine focal mechanisms for 446 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. These <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations and mechanisms show that the seismogenic fault is a simple planar structure. The aftershock sequence of the 2004 mainshock concentrates into the same structures defined by the pre-2004 seismicity</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://earthquake.usgs.gov/resources/software/slope_perf.php','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/resources/software/slope_perf.php"><span id="translatedtitle">Java Programs for Using Newmark's Method and Simplified Decoupled Analysis to <span class="hlt">Model</span> Slope Performance During <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Jibson, Randall W.; Jibson, Matthew W.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>Landslides typically cause a large proportion of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage, and the ability to predict slope performance during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is important for many types of seismic-hazard analysis and for the design of engineered slopes. Newmark's method for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> a landslide as a rigid-plastic block sliding on an inclined plane provides a useful method for predicting approximate landslide displacements. Newmark's method estimates the displacement of a potential landslide block as it is subjected to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking from a specific strong-motion record (<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> acceleration-time history). A modification of Newmark's method, decoupled analysis, allows <span class="hlt">modeling</span> landslides that are not assumed to be rigid blocks. This open-file report is available on CD-ROM and contains Java programs intended to facilitate performing both rigorous and simplified Newmark sliding-block analysis and a simplified <span class="hlt">model</span> of decoupled analysis. For rigorous analysis, 2160 strong-motion records from 29 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are included along with a search interface for selecting records based on a wide variety of record properties. Utilities are available that allow users to add their own records to the program and use them for conducting Newmark analyses. Also included is a document containing detailed information about how to use Newmark's method to <span class="hlt">model</span> dynamic slope performance. This program will run on any platform that supports the Java Runtime Environment (JRE) version 1.3, including Windows, Mac OSX, Linux, Solaris, etc. A minimum of 64 MB of available RAM is needed, and the fully installed program requires 400 MB of disk space.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70182571','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70182571"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> catalogs for the 2017 Central and Eastern U.S. short-term seismic hazard <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Mueller, Charles S.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) makes long-term seismic hazard forecasts that are used in building codes. The hazard <span class="hlt">models</span> usually consider only natural seismicity; non-tectonic (man-made) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are excluded because they are transitory or too small. In the past decade, however, thousands of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> related to underground fluid injection have occurred in the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS), and some have caused damage.  In response, the USGS is now also making short-term forecasts that account for the hazard from these induced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Seismicity statistics are analyzed to develop recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span>, accounting for catalog completeness. In the USGS hazard <span class="hlt">modeling</span> methodology, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are counted on a map grid, recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span> are applied to estimate the rates of future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in each grid cell, and these rates are combined with maximum-magnitude <span class="hlt">models</span> and ground-motion <span class="hlt">models</span> to compute the hazard The USGS published a forecast for the years 2016 and 2017.Here, we document the development of the seismicity catalogs for the 2017 CEUS short-term hazard <span class="hlt">model</span>.  A uniform <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog is assembled by combining and winnowing pre-existing source catalogs. The initial, final, and supporting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs are made available here.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PEPI..233...41L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PEPI..233...41L"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">models</span> of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from ultra low-frequency normal mode data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lentas, K.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Clévédé, E.; Roch, J.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>We present a new <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversion technique based on normal mode data for the simultaneous determination of the rupture duration, length and moment tensor of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with unilateral rupture. We use ultra low-frequency (f <1 mHz) mode singlets and multiplets which are <span class="hlt">modelled</span> using Higher Order Perturbation Theory (HOPT), taking into account the Earth’s rotation, ellipticity and lateral heterogeneities. A Monte Carlo exploration of the <span class="hlt">model</span> space is carried out, enabling the assessment of source parameter tradeoffs and uncertainties. We carry out synthetic tests to investigate errors in the source inversions due to: (i) unmodelled 3-D Earth structure; (ii) noise in the data; (iii) uncertainties in spatio-temporal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> location; and, (iv) neglecting the source finiteness in point source inversions. We find that unmodelled 3-D structure is the most serious source of errors for rupture duration and length determinations especially for the lowest magnitude events. The errors in moment magnitude and fault mechanism are generally small, with the rake angle showing systematically larger errors (up to 20°). We then investigate five real thrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw⩾8.5): (i) Sumatra-Andaman (26th December 2004); (ii) Nias, Sumatra (28th March 2005); (iii) Bengkulu (12th September 2007); (iv) Tohoku, Japan (11th March 2011); (v) Maule, Chile (27th February 2010); and, (vi) the 24 May 2013 Mw 8.3 Okhotsk Sea, Russia, deep (607 km) event. While finite source inversions for rupture length, duration, magnitude and fault mechanism are possible for the Sumatra-Andaman and Tohoku events, for all the other events their lower magnitudes only allow stable point source inversions of mode multiplets. We obtain the first normal mode finite source <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which yields a fault length of 461 km, a rupture duration of 151 s, and hence an average rupture velocity of 3.05 km/s, giving an independent confirmation of the compact nature of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S21B2031H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S21B2031H"><span id="translatedtitle">Improving three dimensional velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands for rapid <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> re-locations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huerfano, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.; Castillo, L.; Baez-Sanchez, G.; Soto-Cordero, L.; Lin, G.; Zhang, Q.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (PRVI) block lie on the northeastern boundary of the Caribbean plate, where active transpressional tectonics result in the deformation of the boundaries of this block. Every year hundreds of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur within and around PRVI region and at least four destructive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> after 1700 are documented in the historical records. The mission of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN), Department of Geology of the University of Puerto Rico in Mayagüez is to detect, analyze, disseminate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>/tsunami messages and investigate the seismicity in the PR/VI. Currently the PRSN operates 30 seismic stations and receive real time stream from over 75 station installed around the Caribbean. 25 years worth of data recorded by the PRSN has been quality checked and compiled to constrain a new velocity structure using the tomographic package TomoDD. Currently at PRSN, the velocity structure to perform real-time determination of hypocenters consists of a 1-D <span class="hlt">model</span>. Therefore, this ambitious tomographic study seek to produce a more comprehensive velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> to be implemented at the PRSN for the daily <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations. Results from this study are a collaborative effort between the University of Miami and the University of Puerto Rico - Mayaguez.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022356','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022356"><span id="translatedtitle">Viscoelastic-coupling <span class="hlt">model</span> for the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle driven from below</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Savage, J.C.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>In a linear system the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle can be represented as the sum of a solution which reproduces the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle itself (viscoelastic-coupling <span class="hlt">model</span>) and a solution that provides the driving force. We consider two cases, one in which the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle is driven by stresses transmitted along the schizosphere and a second in which the cycle is driven from below by stresses transmitted along the upper mantle (i.e., the schizosphere and upper mantle, respectively, act as stress guides in the lithosphere). In both cases the driving stress is attributed to steady motion of the stress guide, and the upper crust is assumed to be elastic. The surface deformation that accumulates during the interseismic interval depends solely upon the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-cycle solution (viscoelastic-coupling <span class="hlt">model</span>) not upon the driving source solution. Thus geodetic observations of interseismic deformation are insensitive to the source of the driving forces in a linear system. In particular, the suggestion of Bourne et al. [1998] that the deformation that accumulates across a transform fault system in the interseismic interval is a replica of the deformation that accumulates in the upper mantle during the same interval does not appear to be correct for linear systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoJI.189..602B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoJI.189..602B"><span id="translatedtitle">Constructing a Hidden Markov <span class="hlt">Model</span> based <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detector: application to induced seismicity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Beyreuther, Moritz; Hammer, Conny; Wassermann, Joachim; Ohrnberger, Matthias; Megies, Tobias</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>The triggering or detection of seismic events out of a continuous seismic data stream is one of the key issues of an automatic or semi-automatic seismic monitoring system. In the case of dense networks, either local or global, most of the implemented trigger algorithms are based on a large number of active stations. However, in the case of only few available stations or small events, for example, like in monitoring volcanoes or hydrothermal power plants, common triggers often show high false alarms. In such cases detection algorithms are of interest, which show reasonable performance when operating even on a single station. In this context, we apply Hidden Markov <span class="hlt">Models</span> (HMM) which are algorithms borrowed from speech recognition. However, many pitfalls need to be avoided to apply speech recognition technology directly to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detection. We show the fit of the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters in an innovative way. State clustering is introduced to refine the intrinsically assumed time dependency of the HMMs and we explain the effect coda has on the recognition results. The methodology is then used for the detection of anthropogenicly induced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for which we demonstrate for a period of 3.9 months of continuous data that the single station HMM <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> detector can achieve similar detection rates as a common trigger in combination with coincidence sums over two stations. To show the general applicability of state clustering we apply the proposed method also to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> classification at Mt. Merapi volcano, Indonesia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70118276','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70118276"><span id="translatedtitle">Conditional spectrum computation incorporating multiple causal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and ground-motion prediction <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Lin, Ting; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Baker, Jack W.; Luco, Nicolas</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The conditional spectrum (CS) is a target spectrum (with conditional mean and conditional standard deviation) that links seismic hazard information with ground-motion selection for nonlinear dynamic analysis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) estimates the ground-motion hazard by incorporating the aleatory uncertainties in all <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios and resulting ground motions, as well as the epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> (GMPMs) and seismic source <span class="hlt">models</span>. Typical CS calculations to date are produced for a single <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenario using a single GMPM, but more precise use requires consideration of at least multiple causal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and multiple GMPMs that are often considered in a PSHA computation. This paper presents the mathematics underlying these more precise CS calculations. Despite requiring more effort to compute than approximate calculations using a single causal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and GMPM, the proposed approach produces an exact output that has a theoretical basis. To demonstrate the results of this approach and compare the exact and approximate calculations, several example calculations are performed for real sites in the western United States. The results also provide some insights regarding the circumstances under which approximate results are likely to closely match more exact results. To facilitate these more precise calculations for real applications, the exact CS calculations can now be performed for real sites in the United States using new deaggregation features in the U.S. Geological Survey hazard mapping tools. Details regarding this implementation are discussed in this paper.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JAGeo..10..109L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JAGeo..10..109L"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">Model</span> from ALOS-2 ScanSAR of the 2015 Nepal <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Youtian; Ge, Linlin; Ng, Alex Hay-Man</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>The 2015 Gorkha Nepal <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sequence started with a magnitude Mw 7.8 main shock and continued with several large aftershocks, particularly the second major shock of Mw 7.3. Both <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events were captured using ALOS-2 ScanSAR images to determine the coseismic surface deformation and the source <span class="hlt">models</span>. In this paper, the displacement maps were produced and the corresponding <span class="hlt">modelling</span> results were discussed. The single fault <span class="hlt">model</span> of the main shock suggests that there was nearly 6 m of right-lateral oblique slip motion with fault struck of 292° and dipped gently Northeast at 7°, indicating that the main shock was on a thrust fault. Moreover, a single fault <span class="hlt">model</span> for the Mw 7.3 quake with striking of 312° and dipping of 11° was derived from observed result. Both results showed the fault planes struck generally to South and dipped northeast, which depicted the risks since the main shock occurred.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/945662','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/945662"><span id="translatedtitle">REGIONAL SEISMIC AMPLITUDE <span class="hlt">MODELING</span> AND TOMOGRAPHY FOR <span class="hlt">EARTHQUAKE</span>-EXPLOSION DISCRIMINATION</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Walter, W R; Pasyanos, M E; Matzel, E; Gok, R; Sweeney, J; Ford, S R; Rodgers, A J</p> <p>2008-07-08</p> <p>We continue exploring methodologies to improve <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-explosion discrimination using regional amplitude ratios such as P/S in a variety of frequency bands. Empirically we demonstrate that such ratios separate explosions from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using closely located pairs of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and explosions recorded on common, publicly available stations at test sites around the world (e.g. Nevada, Novaya Zemlya, Semipalatinsk, Lop Nor, India, Pakistan, and North Korea). We are also examining if there is any relationship between the observed P/S and the point source variability revealed by longer period full waveform <span class="hlt">modeling</span> (e. g. Ford et al 2008). For example, regional waveform <span class="hlt">modeling</span> shows strong tectonic release from the May 1998 India test, in contrast with very little tectonic release in the October 2006 North Korea test, but the P/S discrimination behavior appears similar in both events using the limited regional data available. While regional amplitude ratios such as P/S can separate events in close proximity, it is also empirically well known that path effects can greatly distort observed amplitudes and make <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> appear very explosion-like. Previously we have shown that the MDAC (Magnitude Distance Amplitude Correction, Walter and Taylor, 2001) technique can account for simple 1-D attenuation and geometrical spreading corrections, as well as magnitude and site effects. However in some regions 1-D path corrections are a poor approximation and we need to develop 2-D path corrections. Here we demonstrate a new 2-D attenuation tomography technique using the MDAC <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">model</span> applied to a set of events and stations in both the Middle East and the Yellow Sea Korean Peninsula regions. We believe this new 2-D MDAC tomography has the potential to greatly improve <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-explosion discrimination, particularly in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East. Monitoring the world for potential nuclear explosions requires characterizing seismic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S53D..01L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S53D..01L"><span id="translatedtitle">Oceanic transform fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation process and source scaling relations - A numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> study with rate-state friction (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Y.; McGuire, J. J.; Behn, M. D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We use a three-dimensional strike-slip fault <span class="hlt">model</span> in the framework of rate and state-dependent friction to investigate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior and scaling relations on oceanic transform faults (OTFs). Gabbro friction data under hydrothermal conditions are mapped onto OTFs using temperatures from (1) a half-space cooling <span class="hlt">model</span>, and (2) a thermal <span class="hlt">model</span> that incorporates a visco-plastic rheology, non-Newtonian viscous flow and the effects of shear heating and hydrothermal circulation. Without introducing small-scale frictional heterogeneities on the fault, our <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts that an OTF segment can transition between seismic and aseismic slip over many <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles, consistent with the multimode hypothesis for OTF ruptures. The average seismic coupling coefficient χ is strongly dependent on the ratio of seismogenic zone width W to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation size h*; χ increases by four orders of magnitude as W/h* increases from ~ 1 to 2. Specifically, the average χ = 0.15 +/- 0.05 derived from global OTF <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs can be reached at W/h* ≈ 1.2-1.7. The <span class="hlt">modeled</span> largest <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture area is less than the total seismogenic area and we predict a deficiency of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on long transforms, which is also consistent with observations. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> magnitude and distribution on the Gofar (East Pacific Rise) and Romanche (equatorial Mid-Atlantic) transforms are better predicted using the visco-plastic <span class="hlt">model</span> than the half-space cooling <span class="hlt">model</span>. We will also investigate how fault gouge porosity variation during an OTF <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation phase may affect the seismic wave velocity structure, for which up to 3% drop was observed prior to the 2008 Mw6 Gofar <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032943','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032943"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of CAMEL - comprehensive areal <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Miles, S.B.; Keefer, D.K.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>A new comprehensive areal <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides (CAMEL) has been developed to assist in planning decisions related to disaster risk reduction. CAMEL provides an integrated framework for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> all types of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides using fuzzy logic systems and geographic information systems. CAMEL is designed to facilitate quantitative and qualitative representation of terrain conditions and knowledge about these conditions on the likely areal concentration of each landslide type. CAMEL has been empirically evaluated with respect to disrupted landslides (Category I) using a case study of the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta, CA <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. In this case, CAMEL performs best in comparison to disrupted slides and falls in soil. For disrupted rock fall and slides, CAMEL's performance was slightly poorer. The <span class="hlt">model</span> predicted a low occurrence of rock avalanches, when none in fact occurred. A similar comparison with the Loma Prieta case study was also conducted using a simplified Newmark displacement <span class="hlt">model</span>. The area under the curve method of evaluation was used in order to draw comparisons between both <span class="hlt">models</span>, revealing improved performance with CAMEL. CAMEL should not however be viewed as a strict alternative to Newmark displacement <span class="hlt">models</span>. CAMEL can be used to integrate Newmark displacements with other, previously incompatible, types of knowledge. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S43B1072M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S43B1072M"><span id="translatedtitle">Real time forecasts through physical and stochastic <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Murru, M.; Console, R.; Catalli, F.; Falcone, G.</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p>The phenomenon of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> interaction has become a popular subject of study because it can shed light on the physical processes leading to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and because it has a potential value for short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecast and hazard mitigation. In this study we start from a purely stochastic approach known as the so-called epidemic <span class="hlt">model</span> (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations. Then we build up an approach by which this <span class="hlt">model</span> and the rate-and-state constitutive law introduced by Dieterich in the `90s have been merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian <span class="hlt">model</span> through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity. The <span class="hlt">models</span> are suitable for real-time forecast of the seismic activity. In the context of the low-magnitude Italian seismicity recorded from 1987 to 2005, the new <span class="hlt">model</span> incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not better than the purely stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span>. Nevertheless, it has the advantage of needing a smaller number of free parameters and providing new interesting insights on the physics of the seismogenic process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920035260&hterms=plate+tectonics+earthquakes&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dplate%2Btectonics%2Bearthquakes','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920035260&hterms=plate+tectonics+earthquakes&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dplate%2Btectonics%2Bearthquakes"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Models</span> of recurrent strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles and the state of crustal stress</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lyzenga, Gregory A.; Raefsky, Arthur; Mulligan, Stephanie G.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>Numerical <span class="hlt">models</span> of the strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle, assuming a viscoelastic asthenosphere coupling <span class="hlt">model</span>, are examined. The time-dependent simulations incorporate a stress-driven fault, which leads to tectonic stress fields and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence histories that are mutually consistent. Single-fault simulations with constant far-field plate motion lead to a nearly periodic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle and a distinctive spatial distribution of crustal shear stress. The predicted stress distribution includes a local minimum in stress at depths less than typical seismogenic depths. The width of this stress 'trough' depends on the magnitude of crustal stress relative to asthenospheric drag stresses. The <span class="hlt">models</span> further predict a local near-fault stress maximum at greater depths, sustained by the cyclic transfer of strain from the elastic crust to the ductile asthenosphere. <span class="hlt">Models</span> incorporating both low-stress and high-stress fault strength assumptions are examined, under Newtonian and non-Newtonian rheology assumptions. <span class="hlt">Model</span> results suggest a preference for low-stress (a shear stress level of about 10 MPa) fault <span class="hlt">models</span>, in agreement with previous estimates based on heat flow measurements and other stress indicators.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoJI.208..715P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoJI.208..715P"><span id="translatedtitle">Insights into pulverized rock formation from dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Payne, R. M.; Duan, B.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>Pulverized rocks (PR) are extremely incohesive and highly fractured rocks found within the damage zones of several large strike-slip faults around the world. They maintain their crystal structure, show little evidence of shearing or chemical alteration, and are believed to be produced by strong tensile forces. Several mechanisms for pulverization have been proposed based on simple qualitative analyses or laboratory experiments under simplified loading conditions. Numerical <span class="hlt">modelling</span>, however, can offer new insights into what is needed to produce PR and likely conditions of formation. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of different <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, varying the magnitude, the slip distribution, and the rupture speed (supershear and subshear), while measuring the stresses produced away from the fault. To contextualize our results, a basic threshold of 10 MPa is set as the tensile strength of the rock mass and recordings are made of where, when, and by how much this threshold is exceeded for each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> type. Guided by field observations, we discern that a large (>Mw 7.1) subshear <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along a bimaterial fault produces a pulverized rock distribution most consistent with observations. The damage is asymmetric with the majority on the stiffer side of the fault extending out for several hundred metres. Within this zone there is a large and sudden volumetric expansion in all directions as the rupture passes. We propose that such an extreme tensile stress state, repeated for every <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, eventually produces the PR seen in the field.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014783','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014783"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> aftershock migration and afterslip of the San Juan Bautista, California, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of October 3, 1972</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wesson, R.L.</p> <p>1987-01-01</p> <p>The San Juan Bautista <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of October 3, 1972 (ML = 4.8), located along the San Andreas fault in central California, initiated an aftershock sequence characterized by a subtle, but perceptible, tendency for aftershocks to spread to the northwest and southeast along the fault zone. The apparent dimension of the aftershock zone along strike increased from about 7-10 km within a few days of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, to about 20 km eight months later. In addition, the mainshock initiated a period of accelerated fault creep, which was observed at 2 creep meters situated astride the trace of the San Andreas fault within about 15 km of the epicenter of the mainshock. The creep rate gradually returned to the preearthquake rate after about 3 yrs. Both the spreading of the aftershocks and the rapid surface creep are interpreted as reflecting a period of rapid creep in the fault zone representing the readjustment of stress and displacement following the failure of a "stuck" patch or asperity during the San Juan Bautista <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Numerical calculations suggest that the behavior of the fault zone is consistent with that of a material characterized by a viscosity of about 3.6??1014 P, although the real rheology is likely to be more complicated. In this <span class="hlt">model</span>, the mainshock represents the failure of an asperity that slips only during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Aftershocks represent the failure of second-order asperities which are dragged along by the creeping fault zone. ?? 1987.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.tmp..466P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.tmp..466P"><span id="translatedtitle">Insights into Pulverized Rock Formation from Dynamic Rupture <span class="hlt">Models</span> of <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Payne, R. M.; Duan, B.</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Pulverized rocks (PR) are extremely incohesive and highly fractured rocks found within the damage zones of several large strike-slip faults around the world. They maintain their crystal structure, show little evidence of shearing or chemical alteration, and are believed to be produced by strong tensile forces. Several mechanisms for pulverization have been proposed based on simple qualitative analyses or laboratory experiments under simplified loading conditions. Numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, however, can offer new insights into what is needed to produce PR and likely conditions of formation. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of different <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, varying the magnitude, the slip distribution, and the rupture speed (supershear and subshear), while measuring the stresses produced away from the fault. To contextualize our results, a basic threshold of 10 MPa is set as the tensile strength of the rock mass and recordings are made of where, when, and by how much this threshold is exceeded for each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> type. Guided by field observations, we discern that a large (> Mw 7.1) subshear <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along a bimaterial fault produces a pulverized rock distribution most consistent with observations. The damage is asymmetric with the majority on the stiffer side of the fault extending out for several hundred meters. Within this zone there is a large and sudden volumetric expansion in all directions as the rupture passes. We propose that such an extreme tensile stress state, repeated for every <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, eventually produces the PR seen in the field.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814895C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814895C"><span id="translatedtitle">The use of the Finite Element method for the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> <span class="hlt">modelling</span> in different geodynamic environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Castaldo, Raffaele; Tizzani, Pietro</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Many numerical <span class="hlt">models</span> have been developed to simulate the deformation and stress changes associated to the faulting process. This aspect is an important topic in fracture mechanism. In the proposed study, we investigate the impact of the deep fault geometry and tectonic setting on the co-seismic ground deformation pattern associated to different <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> phenomena. We exploit the impact of the structural-geological data in Finite Element environment through an optimization procedure. In this framework, we <span class="hlt">model</span> the failure processes in a physical mechanical scenario to evaluate the kinematics associated to the Mw 6.1 L'Aquila 2009 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Italy), the Mw 5.9 Ferrara and Mw 5.8 Mirandola 2012 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Italy) and the Mw 8.3 Gorkha 2015 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Nepal). These seismic events are representative of different tectonic scenario: the normal, the reverse and thrust faulting processes, respectively. In order to simulate the kinematic of the analyzed natural phenomena, we assume, under the plane stress approximation (is defined to be a state of stress in which the normal stress, sz, and the shear stress sxz and syz, directed perpendicular to x-y plane are assumed to be zero), the linear elastic behavior of the involved media. The performed finite element procedure consist of through two stages: (i) compacting under the weight of the rock successions (gravity loading), the deformation <span class="hlt">model</span> reaches a stable equilibrium; (ii) the co-seismic stage simulates, through a distributed slip along the active fault, the released stresses. To constrain the <span class="hlt">models</span> solution, we exploit the DInSAR deformation velocity maps retrieved by satellite data acquired by old and new generation sensors, as ENVISAT, RADARSAT-2 and SENTINEL 1A, encompassing the studied <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. More specifically, we first generate 2D several forward mechanical <span class="hlt">models</span>, then, we compare these with the recorded ground deformation fields, in order to select the best boundaries setting and parameters. Finally</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015A%26A...577A..55D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015A%26A...577A..55D"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> evolution in Algols: where is the matter?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Deschamps, R.; Braun, K.; Jorissen, A.; Siess, L.; Baes, M.; Camps, P.</p> <p>2015-05-01</p> <p>Context. There is indirect evidence of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> evolutions in Algols. However, the systemic mass-loss rate is poorly constrained by observations and generally set as a free parameter in binary-star evolution simulations. Moreover, systemic mass loss may lead to observational signatures that still need to be found. Aims: Within the "hotspot" ejection mechanism, some of the material that is initially transferred from the companion star via an accretion stream is expelled from the system due to the radiative energy released on the gainer's surface by the impacting material. The objective of this paper is to retrieve observable quantities from this process and to compare them with observations. Methods: We investigate the impact of the outflowing gas and the possible presence of dust grains on the spectral energy distribution (SED). We used the 1D plasma code Cloudy and compared the results with the 3D Monte-Carlo radiative transfer code Skirt for dusty simulations. The circumbinary mass-distribution and binary parameters were computed with state-of-the-art binary calculations done with the Binstar evolution code. Results: The outflowing material reduces the continuum flux level of the stellar SED in the optical and UV. Because of the time-dependence of this effect, it may help to distinguish between different ejection mechanisms. If present, dust leads to observable infrared excesses, even with low dust-to-gas ratios, and traces the cold material at large distances from the star. By searching for this dust emission in the WISE catalogue, we found a small number of Algols showing infrared excesses, among which the two rather surprising objects SX Aur and CZ Vel. We find that some binary B[e] stars show the same strong Balmer continuum as we predict with our <span class="hlt">models</span>. However, direct evidence of systemic mass loss is probably not observable in genuine Algols, since these systems no longer eject mass through the hotspot mechanism. Furthermore, owing to its high</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7018S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7018S"><span id="translatedtitle">The 2015, Mw 6.5, Leucas (Ionian Sea, Greece) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Seismological and Geodetic <span class="hlt">Modelling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saltogianni, Vasso; Taymaz, Tuncay; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Eken, Tuna; Moschas, Fanis; Stiros, Stathis</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>A cluster of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (6<Ms <7) characterized by strike slip faulting have occurred along the NW edge of the Aegean Arc in the Ionian Sea, the most seismically active region in Greece, in the last 30 years. The most recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the 2015 (Mw 6.5) Leucas (Lefkada) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, some of which are double events (2003 Leucas; 2014 Cephalonia) is a challenge for two main reasons. First, the geography of the area limits the distribution of the available seismological and GNSS stations and the correlations of INSAR data. Second, the structural pattern of the area indicates distributed thrusting but recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are confined to the west margin of the Aegean Arc, usually assigned to the Cephalonia Transform Fault (CTF), and are dominated by strike slip faulting. In order to contribute to the understanding active tectonics along this critical region, our study was based on the independent analysis of the seismological and geodetic signature of the 2015 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the on the joint evaluation of the inferred <span class="hlt">models</span> on the basis of the fault pattern of the area and of previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. First, based on teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms a point-source solution at the SW part of Leucas yielded dominantly right-lateral strike-slip faulting mechanisms (strike: 23o, dip: 68o, rake: -170o) with a shallow focal depth (h: 9 km) and with seismic moment of Mo: 10.4x1018 Nm. Furthermore, the rupture history of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was obtained by applying a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source. In the slip inversion the faulting occurs on a single fault plane (strike and dip are obtained from the best fitting point-source solution) and slip (rake) angle varied during the whole rupture process. Second, co-seismic displacements were derived from eight permanent and one campaign GPS</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT.......112A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT.......112A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Soil-Structure Interaction <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Nuclear Power Plants for Near-Field Events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Abell Mena, Jose Antonio</p> <p></p> <p>This dissertation proposes an approach to <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the response of a nuclear power facility considering soil-structure interaction, when subjected to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> motions originated in the near-field. It is argued that near-field <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced motions are complex in the sense that current state-of-practice assumptions made on the nature of seismic wave-field stemming from such events are oversimplified. Furthermore, even if near-field sources might not deliver the largest magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for a given seismic setting, it is possible that the intensity of motions generated by such sources controls design of structural and/or non-structural components of nuclear facilities in some frequency range. Several nuclear power facilities are located in the vicinity of known smaller <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources (within less than 10km). The domain reduction method is used to excite a <span class="hlt">model</span> of the soil-structure system with a three-dimensional seismic wave-field which is computed using a state-of-the-art seismic simulation code. The response of this <span class="hlt">model</span> is compared with that of an alternative <span class="hlt">model</span> which assumes that the incoming wave-field is not three-dimensional but unidimensional. This last <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach is the most common in both the research and practice of nuclear power-plant seismic design. Two source-to-site geometries are evaluated to compare possible effects of the propagation path. Computation of non-linear soil response is achieved by using a new implementation of the classical elasto-plasticity constitutive <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework using the new language features of the C++11 standard. This novel implementation scheme aims at being both efficient and maintainable by software-engineering standards. Both these goals are hard to achieve with just the features of previous editions of the C++ standard.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4186249','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4186249"><span id="translatedtitle">Evolution of wealth in a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> economy driven by local Nash equilibria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Degond, Pierre; Liu, Jian-Guo; Ringhofer, Christian</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>We develop a <span class="hlt">model</span> for the evolution of wealth in a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> economic environment, extending a theory developed in Degond et al. (2014 J. Stat. Phys. 154, 751–780 (doi:10.1007/s10955-013-0888-4)). The <span class="hlt">model</span> considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game-theoretical framework. This evolution drives the dynamics of the agents in both wealth and economic configuration variables. The cost function is chosen to represent a risk-averse strategy of each agent. That is, the agent is more likely to interact with the market, the more predictable the market, and therefore the smaller its individual risk. This yields a kinetic equation for an effective single particle agent density with a Nash equilibrium serving as the local thermodynamic equilibrium. We consider a regime of scale separation where the large-scale dynamics is given by a hydrodynamic closure with this local equilibrium. A class of generalized collision invariants is developed to overcome the difficulty of the <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> property in the hydrodynamic closure derivation of the large-scale dynamics for the evolution of wealth distribution. The result is a system of gas dynamics-type equations for the density and average wealth of the agents on large scales. We recover the inverse Gamma distribution, which has been previously considered in the literature, as a local equilibrium for particular choices of the cost function. PMID:25288808</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25288808','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25288808"><span id="translatedtitle">Evolution of wealth in a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> economy driven by local Nash equilibria.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Degond, Pierre; Liu, Jian-Guo; Ringhofer, Christian</p> <p>2014-11-13</p> <p>We develop a <span class="hlt">model</span> for the evolution of wealth in a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> economic environment, extending a theory developed in Degond et al. (2014 J. Stat. Phys. 154, 751-780 (doi:10.1007/s10955-013-0888-4)). The <span class="hlt">model</span> considers a system of rational agents interacting in a game-theoretical framework. This evolution drives the dynamics of the agents in both wealth and economic configuration variables. The cost function is chosen to represent a risk-averse strategy of each agent. That is, the agent is more likely to interact with the market, the more predictable the market, and therefore the smaller its individual risk. This yields a kinetic equation for an effective single particle agent density with a Nash equilibrium serving as the local thermodynamic equilibrium. We consider a regime of scale separation where the large-scale dynamics is given by a hydrodynamic closure with this local equilibrium. A class of generalized collision invariants is developed to overcome the difficulty of the <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> property in the hydrodynamic closure derivation of the large-scale dynamics for the evolution of wealth distribution. The result is a system of gas dynamics-type equations for the density and average wealth of the agents on large scales. We recover the inverse Gamma distribution, which has been previously considered in the literature, as a local equilibrium for particular choices of the cost function.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.S53C..03C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.S53C..03C"><span id="translatedtitle">Using a Global Search Inversion to Constrain <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Kinematic Rupture History and to Assess <span class="hlt">Model</span> Uncertainty</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cirella, A.; Piatanesi, A.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.; Tinti, E.</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>We use a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on a finite fault. The unknown <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters, spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and rise time, are given at the vertices of subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault can vary through a bilinear interpolation of the vertex values. The forward <span class="hlt">modeling</span> is performed with a discrete wavenumber technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying non-attenuating Earth structure. The GPS coseismic data are compared with the synthetic displacements using a L2 norm, while the recorded and <span class="hlt">modeled</span> waveforms are compared in the frequency domain, using a cost function that is a hybrid representation between L1 and L2 norms. During the first stage (search), an algorithm based on heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of <span class="hlt">models</span> that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of the parameter space. During this stage multiple Earth structures can be used to allow for uncertainty in the true structure. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the <span class="hlt">model</span> ensemble and computes a weighted mean <span class="hlt">model</span> and its standard deviation by weighting all <span class="hlt">models</span> by the inverse of the cost function values. We do not use any smoothing operator. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best <span class="hlt">model</span>, extracts the most stable features of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each <span class="hlt">model</span> parameter. We present some applications to recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> such as the 2000 western Tottori (Mw 6.7) and the 2007 Niigata (Mw 6.6) (Japan) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in order to test and show the effectiveness of the method. Our methodology allows the use of different slip velocity time functions and we emphasize the relevance of adopting source time functions in kinematic inversions</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NHESS..16...55V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NHESS..16...55V"><span id="translatedtitle">A detailed seismic zonation <span class="hlt">model</span> for shallow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the broader Aegean area</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vamvakaris, D. A.; Papazachos, C. B.; Papaioannou, Ch. A.; Scordilis, E. M.; Karakaisis, G. F.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In the present work we propose a new seismic zonation <span class="hlt">model</span> of area type sources for the broader Aegean area, which can be readily used for seismic hazard assessment. The definition of this <span class="hlt">model</span> is based not only on seismicity information but incorporates all available seismotectonic and neotectonic information for the study area, in an attempt to define zones which show not only a rather homogeneous seismicity release but also exhibit similar active faulting characteristics. For this reason, all available seismological information such as fault plane solutions and the corresponding kinematic axes have been incorporated in the analysis, as well as information about active tectonics, such as seismic and active faults. Moreover, various morphotectonic features (e.g. relief, coastline) were also considered. Finally, a revised seismic catalogue is employed and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> epicentres since historical times (550 BC-2008) are employed, in order to define areas of common seismotectonic characteristics, that could constitute a discrete seismic zone. A new revised <span class="hlt">model</span> of 113 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> seismic zones of shallow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for the broader Aegean area is finally proposed. Using the proposed zonation <span class="hlt">model</span>, a detailed study is performed for the catalogue completeness for the recent instrumental period.Using the defined completeness information, seismicity parameters (such as G-R values) for the 113 new seismic zones have been calculated, and their spatial distribution was also examined. The spatial variation of the obtained b values shows an excellent correlation with the geotectonic setting in the area, in good agreement with previous studies. Moreover, a quantitative estimation of seismicity is performed in terms of the mean return period, T<i/>m, of large (M ≥ 6.0) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, as well as the most frequent maximum magnitude, M<i/>t, for a typical time period (T = 50 yr), revealing significant spatial variations of seismicity levels within the study area. The new proposed</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.T53B..01R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.T53B..01R"><span id="translatedtitle">Surface Deformation Associated with the 1983 Borah Peak <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Measured from Digital Surface <span class="hlt">Model</span> Differencing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Reitman, N. G.; Briggs, R.; Gold, R. D.; DuRoss, C. B.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, field-based assessments of surface displacement commonly underestimate offsets observed with remote sensing techniques (e.g., InSAR, image cross-correlation) because they fail to capture the total deformation field. Modern <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are readily characterized by comparing pre- and post-event remote sensing data, but historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> often lack pre-event data. To overcome this challenge, we use historical aerial photographs to derive pre-event digital surface <span class="hlt">models</span> (DSMs), which we compare to modern, post-event DSMs. Our case study focuses on resolving on- and off-fault deformation along the Lost River fault that accompanied the 1983 M6.9 Borah Peak, Idaho, normal-faulting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We use 343 aerial images from 1952-1966 and vertical control points selected from National Geodetic Survey benchmarks measured prior to 1983 to construct a pre-event point cloud (average ~ 0.25 pts/m2) and corresponding DSM. The post-event point cloud (average ~ 1 pt/m2) and corresponding DSM are derived from WorldView 1 and 2 scenes processed with NASA's Ames Stereo Pipeline. The point clouds and DSMs are coregistered using vertical control points, an iterative closest point algorithm, and a DSM coregistration algorithm. Preliminary results of differencing the coregistered DSMs reveal a signal spanning the surface rupture that is consistent with tectonic displacement. Ongoing work is focused on quantifying the significance of this signal and error analysis. We expect this technique to yield a more complete understanding of on- and off-fault deformation patterns associated with the Borah Peak <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along the Lost River fault and to help improve assessments of surface deformation for other historical ruptures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.204..878G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.204..878G"><span id="translatedtitle">Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Geist, Eric L.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, depending on the variability of slip. If two modes are present that satisfy resonance conditions, then a third mode can gradually increase in amplitude over time, even if the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> did not originally excite that edge-wave mode. These three edge waves form a resonant triad that can cause unexpected variations in tsunami amplitude long after the first arrival. An M ˜ 9, 1100 km-long continental subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is considered as a test case. For the least-variable slip examined involving a Gaussian random variable, the dominant resonant triad includes a high-amplitude fundamental mode wave with wavenumber associated with the along-strike dimension of rupture. The two other waves that make up this triad include subharmonic waves, one of fundamental mode and the other of mode 2 or 3. For the most variable slip examined involving a Cauchy-distributed random variable, the dominant triads involve higher wavenumbers and modes because subevents, rather than the overall rupture dimension, control the excitation of edge waves. Calculation of the resonant period for energy transfer determines which cases resonant coupling may be instrumentally observed. For low-mode triads, the maximum transfer of energy occurs approximately 20-30 wave periods after the first arrival and thus may be observed prior to the tsunami coda being completely attenuated. Therefore, under certain circumstances the necessary ingredients for resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves exist, indicating that resonant triads may be observable and implicated in late, large-amplitude tsunami arrivals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70160542','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70160542"><span id="translatedtitle">Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Geist, Eric L.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, depending on the variability of slip. If two modes are present that satisfy resonance conditions, then a third mode can gradually increase in amplitude over time, even if the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> did not originally excite that edge-wave mode. These three edge waves form a resonant triad that can cause unexpected variations in tsunami amplitude long after the first arrival. An M ∼ 9, 1100 km-long continental subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is considered as a test case. For the least-variable slip examined involving a Gaussian random variable, the dominant resonant triad includes a high-amplitude fundamental mode wave with wavenumber associated with the along-strike dimension of rupture. The two other waves that make up this triad include subharmonic waves, one of fundamental mode and the other of mode 2 or 3. For the most variable slip examined involving a Cauchy-distributed random variable, the dominant triads involve higher wavenumbers and modes because subevents, rather than the overall rupture dimension, control the excitation of edge waves. Calculation of the resonant period for energy transfer determines which cases resonant coupling may be instrumentally observed. For low-mode triads, the maximum transfer of energy occurs approximately 20–30 wave periods after the first arrival and thus may be observed prior to the tsunami coda being completely attenuated. Therefore, under certain circumstances the necessary ingredients for resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves exist, indicating that resonant triads may be observable and implicated in late, large-amplitude tsunami arrivals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhDT........65C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhDT........65C"><span id="translatedtitle">Using GPS to Rapidly Detect and <span class="hlt">Model</span> <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and Transient Deformation Events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Crowell, Brendan W.</p> <p></p> <p>The rapid <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and detection of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and transient deformation is a problem of extreme societal importance for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning and rapid hazard response. To date, GPS data is not used in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning or rapid source <span class="hlt">modeling</span> even in Japan or California where the most extensive geophysical networks exist. This dissertation focuses on creating algorithms for automated <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and transient slip events using GPS data in the western United States and Japan. First, I focus on the creation and use of high-rate GPS and combined seismogeodetic data for applications in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning and rapid slip inversions. Leveraging data from <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Japan and southern California, I demonstrate that an accurate magnitude estimate can be made within seconds using P wave displacement scaling, and that a heterogeneous static slip <span class="hlt">model</span> can be generated within 2-3 minutes. The preliminary source characterization is sufficiently robust to independently confirm the extent of fault slip used for rapid assessment of strong ground motions and improved tsunami warning in subduction zone environments. Secondly, I investigate the automated detection of transient slow slip events in Cascadia using daily positional estimates from GPS. Proper geodetic characterization of transient deformation is necessary for studies of regional interseismic, coseismic and postseismic tectonics, and miscalculations can affect our understanding of the regional stress field. I utilize the relative strength index (RSI) from financial forecasting to create a complete record of slow slip from continuous GPS stations in the Cascadia subduction zone between 1996 and 2012. I create a complete history of slow slip across the Cascadia subduction zone, fully characterizing the timing, progression, and magnitude of events. Finally, using a combination of continuous and campaign GPS measurements, I characterize the amount of extension, shear and subsidence in the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70003681','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70003681"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> and parametric uncertainty in source-based kinematic <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hartzell, Stephen; Frankel, Arthur; Liu, Pengcheng; Zeng, Yuehua; Rahman, Shariftur</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Four independent ground-motion simulation codes are used to <span class="hlt">model</span> the strong ground motion for three <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: 1994 Mw 6.7 Northridge, 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta, and 1999 Mw 7.5 Izmit. These 12 sets of synthetics are used to make estimates of the variability in ground-motion predictions. In addition, ground-motion predictions over a grid of sites are used to estimate parametric uncertainty for changes in rupture velocity. We find that the combined <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty and random variability of the simulations is in the same range as the variability of regional empirical ground-motion data sets. The majority of the standard deviations lie between 0.5 and 0.7 natural-log units for response spectra and 0.5 and 0.8 for Fourier spectra. The estimate of <span class="hlt">model</span> epistemic uncertainty, based on the different <span class="hlt">model</span> predictions, lies between 0.2 and 0.4, which is about one-half of the estimates for the standard deviation of the combined <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty and random variability. Parametric uncertainty, based on variation of just the average rupture velocity, is shown to be consistent in amplitude with previous estimates, showing percentage changes in ground motion from 50% to 300% when rupture velocity changes from 2.5 to 2.9 km/s. In addition, there is some evidence that mean biases can be reduced by averaging ground-motion estimates from different methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1714559S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1714559S"><span id="translatedtitle">A post-seismic deformation <span class="hlt">model</span> after the 2010 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Latin America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sánchez, Laura; Drewes, Hermann; Schmidt, Michael</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The Maule 2010 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Chile generated the largest displacements of geodetic observation stations ever observed in terrestrial reference systems. Coordinate changes came up to 4 meters, and deformations were measurable in distances up to more than 1000 km from the epicentre. The station velocities in the regions adjacent to the epicentre changed dramatically after the seism; while they were oriented eastward with approximately 2 cm/year before the event, they are now directed westward with about 1 cm/year. The 2010 Baja California <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Mexico produced displacements in the decimetre level also followed by anomalous velocity changes. The main problem in geodetic applications is that there is no reliable reference system to be used practically in the region. For geophysical applications we have to redefine the tectonic structure in South America. The area south of 35° S … 40° S was considered as a stable part of the South American plate. Now we see that there are large and extended crustal deformations. The paper presents a new multi-year velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> computed from the Geocentric Reference System of the Americas (SIRGAS) including only the four years after the seismic events (mid-2010 … mid-2014). These velocities are used to derive a continuous deformation <span class="hlt">model</span> of the entire Latin American region from Mexico to Tierra de Fuego. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is compared with the same velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for SIRGAS (VEMOS2009) before the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8345E..0QH','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012SPIE.8345E..0QH"><span id="translatedtitle">Experimental validation of finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> analysis of a steel frame in simulated post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fire environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huang, Ying; Bevans, W. J.; Xiao, Hai; Zhou, Zhi; Chen, Genda</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>During or after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> event, building system often experiences large strains due to shaking effects as observed during recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, causing permanent inelastic deformation. In addition to the inelastic deformation induced by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> effect, the post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fires associated with short fuse of electrical systems and leakage of gas devices can further strain the already damaged structures during the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, potentially leading to a progressive collapse of buildings. Under these harsh environments, measurements on the involved building by various sensors could only provide limited structural health information. Finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> analysis, on the other hand, if validated by predesigned experiments, can provide detail structural behavior information of the entire structures. In this paper, a temperature dependent nonlinear 3-D finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> (FEM) of a one-story steel frame is set up by ABAQUS based on the cited material property of steel from EN 1993-1.2 and AISC manuals. The FEM is validated by testing the <span class="hlt">modeled</span> steel frame in simulated post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> environments. Comparisons between the FEM analysis and the experimental results show that the FEM predicts the structural behavior of the steel frame in post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> fire conditions reasonably. With experimental validations, the FEM analysis of critical structures could be continuously predicted for structures in these harsh environments for a better assistant to fire fighters in their rescue efforts and save fire victims.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23D..02G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23D..02G"><span id="translatedtitle">Using Inundation and Sediment Transport <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> To Characterize <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Source Parameters from Tsunami Deposits</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gelfenbaum, G. R.; La Selle, S.; Witter, R. C.; Sugawara, D.; Jaffe, B. E.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Inferring the relative magnitude of tsunamis generated during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> based on the characteristics of sandy coastal deposits is a challenging problem. Using a hydrodynamic and sediment transport <span class="hlt">model</span>, we explore whether the volume of sandy tsunami deposits can be used to infer tsunami magnitude and seafloor deformation. For large subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> specifically, we are testing the hypothesis that onshore tsunami deposit volume is correlated with nearshore tsunami wave height and coseismic slip. First, we test this hypothesis using onshore tsunami deposit volume data and offshore slip for the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and tsunami. This test considers tsunami deposit volume and offshore slip as they vary alongshore across a wide range of sediment sources, offshore and onshore slopes, and boundary roughness conditions. Preliminary analysis suggests that a strong correlation exists between onshore tsunami deposit volume and adjacent offshore coseismic slip, so long as ample sediment were available along the coast to be eroded. Second, we apply a Delft3D tsunami inundation and sediment transport <span class="hlt">model</span> to Stardust Bay in the U.S. Aleutian Islands, where 6 tsunamis in the last ~1700 years deposited marine sand across a coastal plain as much as 800 m inland and up to ~15 m above mean sea level. The youngest sand sheet, probably deposited by a tsunami generated during the 1957 Andreanof Islands <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 8.6), has the smallest sediment volume. Several older deposits have larger volumes. <span class="hlt">Models</span> show that ≥10 m of slip on the Aleutian subduction megathrust offshore of Stardust Bay could produce the onshore sediment volume measured for the 1957 deposit. Older tsunami deposits of greater volume require up to 14 m of megathrust slip. <span class="hlt">Model</span> sensitivity studies show that onshore sediment volume is most sensitive to megathrust slip and less sensitive to other unknowns such as width of fault rupture and roughness of inundated terrain</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5014998','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5014998"><span id="translatedtitle">Equivalent strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycles in half-space and lithosphere-asthenosphere Earth <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Savage, J.C. )</p> <p>1990-04-10</p> <p>By virtue of the images used in the dislocation solution, the deformation at the free surface produced throughout the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle by slippage on a long strike-slip fault in an Earth <span class="hlt">model</span> consisting of an elastic plate (lithosphere) overlying a visoelastic half-space (asthenosphere) can be duplicated by prescribed slip on a vertical fault embedded in an elastic half-space. For the case in which each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptures the entire lithosphere (thickness H), the half-space equivalent slip rate is as follows: Depth interval 0-H, slip identical to that in lithosphere-asthenosphere <span class="hlt">model</span> (i.e., abrupt coseismic slip and no subsequent slip); depth interval (2n {minus} 1) H to (2n + 1) H (n = 1,2,...), slip rate uniform in space and dependent upon time as F{sub n}(t) exp ({minus}t/{tau}) where F{sub n} is a (n {minus} 1) degree polynomial in t, {tau} is twice the asthenosphere relaxation time, and t is measured from the instant after the preceding <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The slip rate averaged over the seismic cycle in each depth interval equals the secular rate of relative plate motion. The surface deformation due to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle in the lithosphere-asthenosphere <span class="hlt">model</span> can be calculated very simply from the half-space <span class="hlt">model</span> with time-dependent slip in the two depth intervals H-3H and 3H-5H, and uniform slip at a rate equal to the secular relative plate velocity below depth 5H. Inversion of 1973-1988 geodetic measurements of deformation across the segment of the San Andrea fault in the Transverse Ranges north of Los Angeles for the half-space equivalent slip distribution suggests no significant slip on the fault above 30 km and a uniform slip rate of 36 mm/yr below 30 km.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815547P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815547P"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> of the glacially-induced intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and faults formation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Petrunin, Alexey; Schmeling, Harro</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>According to the plate tectonics, main <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are caused by moving lithospheric plates and are located mainly at plate boundaries. However, some of significant seismic events may be located far away from these active areas. The nature of the intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> remains unclear. It is assumed, that the triggering of seismicity in the eastern Canada and northern Europe might be a result of the glacier retreat during a glacial-interglacial cycle (GIC). Previous numerical <span class="hlt">models</span> show that the impact of the glacial loading and following isostatic adjustment is able to trigger seismicity in pre-existing faults, especially during deglaciation stage. However this <span class="hlt">models</span> do not explain strong glaciation-induced historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (M5-M7). Moreover, numerous studies report connection of the location and age of major faults in the regions undergone by glaciation during last glacial maximum with the glacier dynamics. This probably imply that the GIC might be a reason for the fault system formation. Our numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> provides analysis of the strain-stress evolution during the GIC using the finite volume approach realised in the numerical code Lapex 2.5D which is able to operate with large strains and visco-elasto-plastic rheology. To simulate self-organizing faults, the damage rheology <span class="hlt">model</span> is implemented within the code that makes possible not only visualize faulting but also estimate energy release during the seismic cycle. The <span class="hlt">modeling</span> domain includes two-layered crust, lithospheric mantle and the asthenosphere that makes possible simulating elasto-plastic response of the lithosphere to the glaciation-induced loading (unloading) and viscous isostatic adjustment. We have considered three scenarios for the <span class="hlt">model</span>: horizontal extension, compression and fixed boundary conditions. <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> results generally confirm suppressing seismic activity during glaciation phases whereas retreat of a glacier triggers <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for several thousand years. Tip of the glacier</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20813636','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20813636"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> Lagrangian framework for statistical fluid registration-SAFIRA.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Brun, Caroline C; Lepore, Natasha; Pennec, Xavier; Chou, Yi-Yu; Lee, Agatha D; de Zubicaray, Greig; McMahon, Katie L; Wright, Margaret J; Gee, James C; Thompson, Paul M</p> <p>2011-02-01</p> <p>In this paper, we used a <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> Lagrangian mechanics approach to formulate a new statistical algorithm for fluid registration of 3-D brain images. This algorithm is named SAFIRA, acronym for statistically-assisted fluid image registration algorithm. A nonstatistical version of this algorithm was implemented , where the deformation was regularized by penalizing deviations from a zero rate of strain. In , the terms regularizing the deformation included the covariance of the deformation matrices (Σ) and the vector fields (q) . Here, we used a Lagrangian framework to reformulate this algorithm, showing that the regularizing terms essentially allow <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> work to occur during the flow. Given 3-D brain images from a group of subjects, vector fields and their corresponding deformation matrices are computed in a first round of registrations using the nonstatistical implementation. Covariance matrices for both the deformation matrices and the vector fields are then obtained and incorporated (separately or jointly) in the <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> terms, creating four versions of SAFIRA. We evaluated and compared our algorithms' performance on 92 3-D brain scans from healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins; 2-D validations are also shown for corpus callosum shapes delineated at midline in the same subjects. After preliminary tests to demonstrate each method, we compared their detection power using tensor-based morphometry (TBM), a technique to analyze local volumetric differences in brain structure. We compared the accuracy of each algorithm variant using various statistical metrics derived from the images and deformation fields. All these tests were also run with a traditional fluid method, which has been quite widely used in TBM studies. The versions incorporating vector-based empirical statistics on brain variation were consistently more accurate than their counterparts, when used for automated volumetric quantification in new brain images. This suggests the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.8546D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.8546D"><span id="translatedtitle">Broadband characterization of large subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> through the combination of coherent rupture imaging and kinematic <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dionicio, V.; Satriano, C.; Kiraly, E.; Vilotte, J.-P.; Bernard, P.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>In recent years the seismic observation has made a huge leap forward in terms of coverage and density of recording stations. This instrumental effort has fostered the development of new approaches to the study of the seismic rupture, which can potentially support and complement the classical finite source kinematic <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. The availability of dense seismic arrays makes today possible to image the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> extended source through the coherent interferometry of the wave radiation emitted during the rupture propagation. One of the advantages of this approach is to deliver images of the source emissivity that do not need a-priori information on the rupture speed or on the fault geometry, while they can constrain these parameters for kinematic inversion. Moreover, coherent interferometry provides intrinsically high frequency images of the rupture, since it works at frequencies that are generally one or two order of magnitudes higher than those used for kinematic slip inversion. The combination and the joint interpretation of coherent imaging and finite source slip <span class="hlt">modeling</span> opens up new perspectives in the study of the rupture processes, in relation to the geometry and the strength of the fault asperities. We effectively combined coherent rupture imaging and kinematic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for the study of the rupture process of two mega-thrust events: the 2010, Mw 8.8 Maule <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Chile) and the 2011, Mw 9.0 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The joint analysis of the rupture images shows, for both the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, distinctive patterns in the space-time distribution of high-frequency emissivity and low-frequency coherent slip. We interpret these results in terms of their implications on the geometry and mechanical properties of the subduction interface and the dynamical properties of the rupture.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PApGe.172.1305R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PApGe.172.1305R"><span id="translatedtitle">Postseismic Deformation Following the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>: Observations, Kinematic Inversions, and Dynamic <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rollins, Christopher; Barbot, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe</p> <p>2015-05-01</p> <p>Due to its location on a transtensional section of the Pacific-North American plate boundary, the Salton Trough is a region featuring large strike-slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> within a regime of shallow asthenosphere, high heat flow, and complex faulting, and so postseismic deformation there may feature enhanced viscoelastic relaxation and afterslip that is particularly detectable at the surface. The 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the largest shock in the Salton Trough since 1892 and occurred close to the US-Mexico border, and so the postseismic deformation recorded by the continuous GPS network of southern California provides an opportunity to study the rheology of this region. Three-year postseismic transients extracted from GPS displacement time-series show four key features: (1) 1-2 cm of cumulative uplift in the Imperial Valley and 1 cm of subsidence in the Peninsular Ranges, (2) relatively large cumulative horizontal displacements 150 km from the rupture in the Peninsular Ranges, (3) rapidly decaying horizontal displacement rates in the first few months after the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the Imperial Valley, and (4) sustained horizontal velocities, following the rapid early motions, that were still visibly ongoing 3 years after the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Kinematic inversions show that the cumulative 3-year postseismic displacement field can be well fit by afterslip on and below the coseismic rupture, though these solutions require afterslip with a total moment equivalent to at least a <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and higher slip magnitudes than those predicted by coseismic stress changes. Forward <span class="hlt">modeling</span> shows that stress-driven afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation in various configurations within the lithosphere can reproduce the early and later horizontal velocities in the Imperial Valley, while Newtonian viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere can reproduce the uplift in the Imperial Valley and the subsidence and large westward displacements in the Peninsular Ranges. We present two forward</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T41F..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.T41F..01M"><span id="translatedtitle">The Decollement of the 2011 Great Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>: Oceanographic Provenance and a Potential <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Tsunami <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Production. (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Moore, J. C.; Chester, F. M.; Plank, T. A.; Polissar, P. J.; Savage, H. M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>At its deformation front, the Tohoku <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>'s displacement was about 50 m. Slip was localized along a decollement consisting of pelagic brown clay. The brown clay of the Tohoku decollement at Site C0019 correlates lithologically with a lower portion of the pelagic brown clay section of Site 436, the 'reference' drill site closest to Site C0019 on the subducting Pacific Plate. The brown clay at Site 436 is of Eocene age, is dominated by smectite and illite, is extremely fine-grained, and unconformably overlies Cretaceous cherty mudstone. Similar pelagic clay layers occur at drill sites to the east and northeast of the Japan Trench. Pelagic clay may have been the slip surface of the 1896 Sanriku tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, located just north of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> along the Japan Trench. Both the Tohoku and Sanriku <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may have also been facilitated by the lack of large seamounts on the incoming Pacific Plate east of the Japan Trench. Moreover, the relatively thin sedimentary section overlying the pelagic clays in the Japan Trench may be offscraped and enable decollement development in the weak pelagic clay; this may not occur where a thick incoming terrigenous section offers options for decollement development at depth above the pelagic clays. Backtracking the plate motions of Sites 436 and C0019 shows that they initiate in the southern Pacific Ocean, accumulate concentrations of siliceous sediments crossing beneath the equatorial upwelling zone, enter the central north Pacific desert of pelagic clay deposition, and finally approach the margin of Japan where the upper section of Neogene, terrigenous-ashy-siliceous sediments dominate. Pelagic clay deposits are common in central, deep portions of the oceans that are shielded from terrigenous input. Thus, subduction of relatively smooth oceanic crust overlain by pelagic clay with a modest overburden of younger sediments may potentially foster a tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Earthquake&pg=4&id=EJ782558','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Earthquake&pg=4&id=EJ782558"><span id="translatedtitle">Redefining <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> and the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Machine</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Machine (EML), a mechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML <span class="hlt">model</span> and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The activity emphasizes the role of models…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028772','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028772"><span id="translatedtitle">M ≥ 7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Parsons, Thomas E.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p> Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element <span class="hlt">model</span> of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the <span class="hlt">model</span> volume. Under a renewal <span class="hlt">model</span>, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Thus a stress-balanced <span class="hlt">model</span> permits large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFMED41B1171S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFMED41B1171S"><span id="translatedtitle">Undergraduate Research - Analyzing Data Sets: Global Positioning System (GPS) and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the 1994 Northridge <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Simila, G.; Shubin, C.; Horn, W.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>Our undergraduate research program (2000-2003), funded by NASA, consisted of four short courses on the analysis of selected data sets from GPS, solar physics, orbital mechanics, and proteomics. During the program, approximately 80 students were recruited from science, math, engineering, and technology disciplines. This short course introduced students to GPS and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data analysis with additional presentations by scientists from JPL. Additional lectures involved discussions of the wave equation, Fourier analysis, statistical techniques, and computer applications of Excel and Matlab. Each student <span class="hlt">modeled</span> the observed GPS displacements produced by the 1994 Northridge <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and presented an oral report. An additional component of the program involved students as research assistants engaged in a variety of projects at CSUN and JPL. Each short course continued the following semester with weekly research lectures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.6891J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.6891J"><span id="translatedtitle">Were the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> induced? A coupled flow-geomechanics <span class="hlt">modeling</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Juanes, R.; Jha, B.; Hager, B. H.; Shaw, J. H.; Plesch, A.; Astiz, L.; Dieterich, J. H.; Frohlich, C.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Seismicity induced by fluid injection and withdrawal has emerged as a central element of the scientific discussion around subsurface technologies that tap into water and energy resources. Here we present the application of coupled flow-geomechanics simulation technology to the post mortem analysis of a sequence of damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw = 6.0 and 5.8) in May 2012 near the Cavone oil field, in northern Italy. This sequence raised the question of whether these <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> might have been triggered by activities due to oil and gas production. Our analysis strongly suggests that the combined effects of fluid production and injection from the Cavone field were not a driver for the observed seismicity. More generally, our study illustrates that computational <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of coupled flow and geomechanics permits the integration of geologic, seismotectonic, well log, fluid pressure and flow rate, and geodetic data and provides a promising approach for assessing and managing hazards associated with induced seismicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790056259&hterms=driving+technique&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddriving%2Btechnique','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790056259&hterms=driving+technique&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddriving%2Btechnique"><span id="translatedtitle">Finite element <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of stress in the Nazca plate - Driving forces and plate boundary <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Richardson, R. M.</p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>The state of stress within the Nazca plate due to plate driving forces and large plate boundary <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> has been analyzed by applying a finite element method using the wave front solution technique to <span class="hlt">models</span> of the intraplate stress field in a single plate using a refined grid. Although only static elastic <span class="hlt">models</span> have been explicitly calculated, certain limiting cases of an elastic plate over a viscous asthenosphere were also treated. A state of nearly east-west compression inferred from the source mechanism of thrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the interior of the plate requires ridge pushing forces. The net pulling force on the oceanic plate by the subducted slab has a maximum value comparable to pushing forces. The estimated horizontal deviatoric stress in intraplate regions, based on potential forces associated with the ridge, is on the order of a few hundred bars. The intraplate stress field in the region of the 1960 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> may change by a few tens of bars at most once the asthenosphere has relaxed, with changes on the order of one bar occurring at greater distances into the plate. The changes in the intraplate stress field are probably not noticeable unless the lithosphere is near failure.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014159','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014159"><span id="translatedtitle">Crustal velocities near Coalinga, California, <span class="hlt">modeled</span> from a combined <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>/explosion refraction profile</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Macgregor-Scott, N.; Walter, A.</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>Crustal velocity structure for the region near Coalinga, California, has been derived from both <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and explosion seismic phase data recorded along a NW-SE seismic-refraction profile on the western flank of the Great Valley east of the Diablo Range. Comparison of the two data sets reveals P-wave phases in common which can be correlated with changes in the velocity structure below the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hypocenters. In addition, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> records reveal secondary phases at station ranges of less than 20 km that could be the result of S- to P-wave conversions at velocity interfaces above the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hypocenters. Two-dimensional ray-trace <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the P-wave travel times resulted in a P-wave velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for the western flank of the Great Valley comprised of: 1) a 7- to 9-km thick section of sedimentary strata with velocities similar to those found elsewhere in the Great Valley (1.6 to 5.2 km s-1); 2) a middle crust extending to about 14 km depth with velocities comparable to those reported for the Franciscan assemblage in the Diablo Range (5.6 to 5.9 km s-1); and 3) a 13- to 14-km thick lower crust with velocities similar to those reported beneath the Diablo Range and the Great Valley (6.5 to 7.30 km s-1). This lower crust may have been derived from subducted oceanic crust that was thickened by accretionary underplating or crustal shortening. -Authors</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24483388','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24483388"><span id="translatedtitle">Stability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering <span class="hlt">models</span>: criticality and branching ratios.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhuang, Jiancang; Werner, Maximilian J; Harte, David S</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We study the stability conditions of a class of branching processes prominent in the analysis and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of seismicity. This class includes the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span> as a special case, but more generally comprises <span class="hlt">models</span> in which the magnitude distribution of direct offspring depends on the magnitude of the progenitor, such as the branching aftershock sequence (BASS) <span class="hlt">model</span> and another recently proposed branching <span class="hlt">model</span> based on a dynamic scaling hypothesis. These stability conditions are closely related to the concepts of the criticality parameter and the branching ratio. The criticality parameter summarizes the asymptotic behavior of the population after sufficiently many generations, determined by the maximum eigenvalue of the transition equations. The branching ratio is defined by the proportion of triggered events in all the events. Based on the results for the generalized case, we show that the branching ratio of the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> is identical to its criticality parameter because its magnitude density is separable from the full intensity. More generally, however, these two values differ and thus place separate conditions on <span class="hlt">model</span> stability. As an illustration of the difference and of the importance of the stability conditions, we employ a version of the BASS <span class="hlt">model</span>, reformulated to ensure the possibility of stationarity. In addition, we analyze the magnitude distributions of successive generations of the BASS <span class="hlt">model</span> via analytical and numerical methods, and find that the compound density differs substantially from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, unless the process is essentially subcritical (branching ratio less than 1) or the magnitude dependence between the parent event and the direct offspring is weak.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvE..88f2109Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvE..88f2109Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Stability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering <span class="hlt">models</span>: Criticality and branching ratios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhuang, Jiancang; Werner, Maximilian J.; Harte, David S.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We study the stability conditions of a class of branching processes prominent in the analysis and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of seismicity. This class includes the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span> as a special case, but more generally comprises <span class="hlt">models</span> in which the magnitude distribution of direct offspring depends on the magnitude of the progenitor, such as the branching aftershock sequence (BASS) <span class="hlt">model</span> and another recently proposed branching <span class="hlt">model</span> based on a dynamic scaling hypothesis. These stability conditions are closely related to the concepts of the criticality parameter and the branching ratio. The criticality parameter summarizes the asymptotic behavior of the population after sufficiently many generations, determined by the maximum eigenvalue of the transition equations. The branching ratio is defined by the proportion of triggered events in all the events. Based on the results for the generalized case, we show that the branching ratio of the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> is identical to its criticality parameter because its magnitude density is separable from the full intensity. More generally, however, these two values differ and thus place separate conditions on <span class="hlt">model</span> stability. As an illustration of the difference and of the importance of the stability conditions, we employ a version of the BASS <span class="hlt">model</span>, reformulated to ensure the possibility of stationarity. In addition, we analyze the magnitude distributions of successive generations of the BASS <span class="hlt">model</span> via analytical and numerical methods, and find that the compound density differs substantially from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, unless the process is essentially subcritical (branching ratio less than 1) or the magnitude dependence between the parent event and the direct offspring is weak.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6399B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.6399B"><span id="translatedtitle">Analogue <span class="hlt">models</span> of subduction megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: improving rheology and monitoring technique</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brizzi, Silvia; Corbi, Fabio; Funiciello, Francesca; Moroni, Monica</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Most of the world's great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw > 8.5, usually known as mega-<span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>) occur at shallow depths along the subduction thrust fault (STF), i.e., the frictional interface between the subducting and overriding plates. Spatiotemporal occurrences of mega-<span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and their governing physics remain ambiguous, as tragically demonstrated by the underestimation of recent megathrust events (i.e., 2011 Tohoku). To help unravel seismic cycle at STF, analogue <span class="hlt">modelling</span> has become a key-tool. First properly scaled analogue <span class="hlt">models</span> with realistic geometries (i.e., wedge-shaped) suitable for studying interplate seismicity have been realized using granular elasto-plastic [e.g., Rosenau et al., 2009] and viscoelastic materials [i.e., Corbi et al., 2013]. In particular, viscoelastic laboratory experiments realized with type A gelatin 2.5 wt% simulate, in a simplified yet robust way, the basic physics governing subduction seismic cycle and related rupture process. Despite the strength of this approach, analogue <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are not perfectly comparable to their natural prototype. In this work, we try to improve subduction seismic cycle analogue <span class="hlt">models</span> by modifying the rheological properties of the analogue material and adopting a new image analysis technique (i.e., PEP - ParticlE and Prediction velocity). We test the influence of lithosphere elasticity by using type A gelatin with greater concentration (i.e., 6 wt%). Results show that gelatin elasticity plays important role in controlling seismogenic behaviour of STF, tuning the mean and the maximum magnitude of analogue <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In particular, by increasing gelatin elasticity, we observe decreasing mean magnitude, while the maximum magnitude remains the same. Experimental results therefore suggest that lithosphere elasticity could be one of the parameters that tunes seismogenic behaviour of STF. To increase gelatin elasticity also implies improving similarities with their natural prototype in terms of coseismic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3974B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3974B"><span id="translatedtitle">Comparing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for the Corinth rift for Mw>=5.5/6/6.5 (Greece)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Boiselet, Aurélien; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Ford, Mary; Meyer, NIcolas; Bernard, Pascal</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>The Corinth rift (Greece) is identified as a site of major importance for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> studies in Europe, producing one of the highest seismic activity and strain in the Euro-Mediterranean region. It is characterized by an asymmetrical structure, with the most active normal faults dipping north and a north-south extension rate measured by GPS increasing from 0.6 mm/year in the eastern part of the rift to 15 mm/year in the western part. Frequent seismic swarms and destructive <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are observed in this area. The Corinth rift Laboratory (CRL, http://crlab.eu) european project investigates fault mechanics, its relationship with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, fluid flow and the related hazards in the western part of the rift, covering an area about 50 km by 40 km, between the city of Patras to the west and the city of Aigion to the east. As part of this project, within the CRL-SISCOR group, we construct <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecast <span class="hlt">models</span> (EFM) for M>=5.5/6/6.5 events of the Corinth rift area based on the in-depth seismotectonic studies available for this region. We first present the methodology used to construct the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and fault databases and to quantify the associated uncertainties. We then propose EFM following two approaches: one based on the definition of seimotectonic areas with similar geologic or strain characteristics, the second one based on the definition of fault sources mapped at the surface as well as blind ones. In order to compute the probability of occurrence for M>=5.5/6/6.5 for seismotectonic areas, we analyse two <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues available for Greece (National Observatory of Athens, Thessaloniki), apply two declustering methods (Reasenberg and Gardner) to construct a Poissonian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogue and test the influence of the minimal magnitude (3.5; 4.0). We compare the impact of maximum magnitude and corner magnitude (Kagan 1997, 2002) estimations. We then apply the Weichert method to estimate the probability of occurrence of M>=5.5/6/6.5 based on</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.8113L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRB..121.8113L"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessment of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations in 3-D deterministic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>: A case study from the Altotiberina Near Fault Observatory (Italy)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Latorre, D.; Mirabella, F.; Chiaraluce, L.; Trippetta, F.; Lomax, A.</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>The accuracy of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations and their correspondence with subsurface geology depends strongly on the accuracy of the available seismic velocity <span class="hlt">model</span>. Most modern methods to construct a velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> location are based on the inversion of passive source seismological data. Another approach is the integration of high-resolution geological and geophysical data to construct deterministic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> in which <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> locations can be directly correlated to the geological structures. Such <span class="hlt">models</span> have to be kinematically consistent with independent seismological data in order to provide precise hypocenter solutions. We present the Altotiberina (AT) seismic <span class="hlt">model</span>, a three-dimensional velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for the Upper Tiber Valley region (Northern Apennines, Italy), constructed by combining 300 km of seismic reflection profiles, six deep boreholes (down to 5 km depth), detailed data from geological surveys and direct measurements of P and S wave velocities performed in situ and in laboratory. We assess the robustness of the AT seismic <span class="hlt">model</span> by locating 11,713 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with a nonlinear, global-search inversion method and comparing the probabilistic hypocenter solutions to those calculated in three previously published velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>, constructed by inverting passive seismological data only. Our results demonstrate that the AT seismic <span class="hlt">model</span> is able to provide higher-quality hypocenter locations than the previous velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> locations are consistent with the subsurface geological structures and show a high degree of spatial correlation with specific lithostratigraphic units, suggesting a lithological control on the seismic activity evolution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S42C0188M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.S42C0188M"><span id="translatedtitle">The Energy Budget of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture: a View From Spontaneous Rupture <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and Finite-Source <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mai, P.; Guatteri, M.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>It is a common and frustrating experience of many dynamic <span class="hlt">modelers</span> to initiate spontaneous rupture calculations that subsequently abort before rupturing to the desired <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size [Nielsen and Olsen, 2000; Oglesby and Day, 2002]. Source parameters in such dynamic source <span class="hlt">models</span> are strongly correlated, but stress drop is the main factor affecting the distribution of the other dynamic rupture parameters. Additionally, the position of the hypocenter exerts a strong influence on the dynamic properties of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, and certain hypocenter positions are not plausible as those would not lead to spontaneous rupture propagation. To further investigate this last statement, we analyze the energy budget during <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture using spontaneous dynamic rupture calculations and finite-source rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. In describing the energy budget during <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture, we follow Favreau and Archuleta [2003]. Each point on the fault contributes to the radiated seismic energy Ers = Eel - Efr - Erx, where Eel denotes the elasto-static energy and Efr the fracture energy. In this study we neglect for simplicity the relaxation work Erx spent during the stopping of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. A rupture can be characterized by locally negative seismic energy density values, but its integral over the fault plane must be positive. The fundamental condition for rupture growth is therefore that the integral of Ers on the rupture area remains always positive during rupture propagation. Based on a simple energy budget calculation, we focus on identifying those target slip/stress distribution in dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">modeling</span> that for a given hypocenter location fail to rupture spontaneously. Additionally, we study the energy budget of finite-source rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> by analyzing the integrated seismic energy for the inferred slip maps using also hypocenter positions other than the network location. These results indicate how rupture was promoted for the true hypocenter while randomized hypocenters may not</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032137','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032137"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>, part II: Ground-motion estimates for the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and scenario events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Aagaard, B.T.; Brocher, T.M.; Dolenc, D.; Dreger, D.; Graves, R.W.; Harmsen, S.; Hartzell, S.; Larsen, S.; McCandless, K.; Nilsson, S.; Petersson, N.A.; Rodgers, A.; Sjogreen, B.; Zoback, M.L.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>We estimate the ground motions produce by the 1906 San Francisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> making use of the recently developed Song et al. (2008) source <span class="hlt">model</span> that combines the available geodetic and seismic observations and recently constructed 3D geologic and seismic velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. Our estimates of the ground motions for the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> are consistent across five ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> groups employing different wave propagation codes and simulation domains. The simulations successfully reproduce the main features of the Boatwright and Bundock (2005) ShakeMap, but tend to over predict the intensity of shaking by 0.1-0.5 modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) units. Velocity waveforms at sites throughout the San Francisco Bay Area exhibit characteristics consistent with rupture directivity, local geologic conditions (e.g., sedimentary basins), and the large size of the event (e.g., durations of strong shaking lasting tens of seconds). We also compute ground motions for seven hypothetical scenarios rupturing the same extent of the northern San Andreas fault, considering three additional hypocenters and an additional, random distribution of slip. Rupture directivity exerts the strongest influence on the variations in shaking, although sedimentary basins do consistently contribute to the response in some locations, such as Santa Rosa, Livermore, and San Jose. These scenarios suggest that future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the northern San Andreas fault may subject the current San Francisco Bay urban area to stronger shaking than a repeat of the 1906 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Ruptures propagating southward towards San Francisco appear to expose more of the urban area to a given intensity level than do ruptures propagating northward.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/232644','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/232644"><span id="translatedtitle">Helicity <span class="hlt">non-conserving</span> form factor of the proton</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Voutier, E.; Furget, C.; Knox, S.</p> <p>1994-04-01</p> <p>The study of the hadron structure in the high Q{sup 2} range contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the confinement of quarks and gluons. Among the numerous experimental candidates sensitive to these mechanisms, the helicity <span class="hlt">non-conserving</span> form factor of the proton is a privileged observable since it is controlled by non-perturbative effects. The authors investigate here the feasibility of high Q{sup 2} measurements of this form factor by means of the recoil polarization method in the context of the CEBAF 8 GeV facility. For that purpose, they discuss the development of a high energy proton polarimeter, based on the H({rvec p},pp) elastic scattering, to be placed at the focal plane of a new hadron spectrometer. It is shown that this experimental method significantly improves the knowledge of the helicity <span class="hlt">non-conserving</span> form factor of the proton up to 10 GeV{sup 2}/c{sup 2}.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFM.S12B1194A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFM.S12B1194A"><span id="translatedtitle">3-D Finite-Difference <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in the City of Rome, Italy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Akinci, A.; Olsen, K. B.; Rovelli, A.; Marra, F.; Malagnini, L.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>The goal of this study is to estimate 3-D amplification effects from regional and local <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the city of Rome. Mainly, two distinct seismogenic districts may affect the city of Rome: the (1) Alban Hills region, located about 25 km from downtown Rome, and (2) the Central Apennines, located 80-100 km from Rome where the most recent event occurred on January 13, 1915 (M=6.8) which was felt in Rome with a VII degree intensity. To address the seismic hazard in Rome from such sources we have simulated 0-1 Hz viscoelastic wave propagation in a three-dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Tiber Valley, Rome, for an M5.5 scenario <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (1 Hz) in the seismogenic area of Alban Hills about 25 km from downtown Rome and an M7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (0.5 Hz) about 100 km east of the valley using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference method. We used a basin <span class="hlt">model</span> (~ 6 km by 6 km by 0.050 km) which includes sediments with shear-wave velocities as low as 250 m/s in the Tiber River sediments, constrained by more than 3000 borehole measurements. We have also estimated the amplification of the 3D <span class="hlt">model</span> due to a 1-Hz vertically-incident planar SH wave. Our results suggest that the strongest ground motion amplification in Rome is restricted to the Holocene alluvial areas with a significant concentration close to the edges of the Tiber River valley, in agreement with the results by Tertulliani and Riguzzi (1995). In particular, the fill deposits in the Tiber River generate amplification by up to a factor of 2 with respect to the surrounding volcanics, largest near the contact between the alluvial sediments and the surrounding volcanic deposits for the incident plane wave source. We find 1-Hz peak ground velocities of up to 30 cm/sec for the M5.5, Alban Hills <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, largest near the northwestern edges of the Tiber River. The largest 0.5-Hz peak velocity is 24 cm/s for the M7.0 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with extended durations up to about 1 min. The lower maximum frequency for this scenario is</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4784842','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4784842"><span id="translatedtitle">An Integrated and Interdisciplinary <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Background A comprehensive technique for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative <span class="hlt">model</span> was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation <span class="hlt">model</span> (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated <span class="hlt">model</span> outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional <span class="hlt">model</span>; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed <span class="hlt">model</span> offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> casualty <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70045077','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70045077"><span id="translatedtitle">Relation of landslides triggered by the Kiholo Bay <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to <span class="hlt">modeled</span> ground motion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Harp, Edwin L.; Hartzell, Stephen H.; Jibson, Randall W.; Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Schmitt, Robert G.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> triggered high concentrations of rock falls and slides in the steep canyons of the Kohala Mountains along the north coast of Hawaii. Within these mountains and canyons a complex distribution of landslides was triggered by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking. In parts of the area, landslides were preferentially located on east‐facing slopes, whereas in other parts of the canyons no systematic pattern prevailed with respect to slope aspect or vertical position on the slopes. The geology within the canyons is homogeneous, so we hypothesize that the variable landslide distribution is the result of localized variation in ground shaking; therefore, we used a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution ground‐motion simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> to see if it could reproduce the landslide‐distribution patterns. We used a 3D finite‐element analysis to <span class="hlt">model</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shaking using a 10 m digital elevation <span class="hlt">model</span> and slip on a finite‐fault <span class="hlt">model</span> constructed from teleseismic records of the mainshock. Ground velocity time histories were calculated up to a frequency of 5 Hz. Dynamic shear strain also was calculated and compared with the landslide distribution. Results were mixed for the velocity simulations, with some areas showing correlation of landslide locations with peak <span class="hlt">modeled</span> ground motions but many other areas showing no such correlation. Results were much improved for the comparison with dynamic shear strain. This suggests that (1) rock falls and slides are possibly triggered by higher frequency ground motions (velocities) than those in our simulations, (2) the ground‐motion velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> needs more refinement, or (3) dynamic shear strain may be a more fundamental measurement of the decoupling process of slope materials during seismic shaking.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PApGe.171.1311C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PApGe.171.1311C"><span id="translatedtitle">6.9 Sikkim <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Ground Motions to Determine Causative Fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chopra, Sumer; Sharma, Jyoti; Sutar, Anup; Bansal, B. K.</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>In this study, source parameters of the September 18, 2011 M w 6.9, Sikkim <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> were determined using acceleration records. These parameters were then used to generate strong motion at a number of sites using the stochastic finite fault <span class="hlt">modeling</span> technique to constrain the causative fault plane for this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The average values of corner frequency, seismic moment, stress drop and source radius were 0.12 Hz, 3.07 × 1026 dyne-cm, 115 bars and 9.68 km, respectively. The fault plane solution showed strike-slip movement with two nodal planes oriented along two prominent lineaments in the region, the NE-oriented Kanchendzonga and NW-oriented Tista lineaments. The ground motions were estimated considering both the nodal planes as causative faults and the results in terms of the peak ground accelerations (PGA) and Fourier spectra were then compared with the actual recordings. We found that the NW-SE striking nodal plane along the Tista lineament may have been the causative fault for the Sikkim <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, as PGA estimates are comparable with the observed recordings. We also observed that the Fourier spectrum is not a good parameter in deciding the causative fault plane.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044047','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044047"><span id="translatedtitle">Spatial aspects of building and population exposure data and their implications for global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> exposure <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Dell’Acqua, F.; Gamba, P.; Jaiswal, K.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>This paper discusses spatial aspects of the global exposure dataset and mapping needs for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk assessment. We discuss this in the context of development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GED4GEM), which requires compilation of a multi-scale inventory of assets at risk, for example, buildings, populations, and economic exposure. After defining the relevant spatial and geographic scales of interest, different procedures are proposed to disaggregate coarse-resolution data, to map them, and if necessary to infer missing data by using proxies. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these methodologies and detail the potentials of utilizing remote-sensing data. The latter is used especially to homogenize an existing coarser dataset and, where possible, replace it with detailed information extracted from remote sensing using the built-up indicators for different environments. Present research shows that the spatial aspects of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk computation are tightly connected with the availability of datasets of the resolution necessary for producing sufficiently detailed exposure. The global exposure database designed by the GED4GEM project is able to manage datasets and queries of multiple spatial scales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JSCSE..68..I20S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JSCSE..68..I20S"><span id="translatedtitle">FINITE FAULT <span class="hlt">MODELING</span> OF FUTURE LARGE <span class="hlt">EARTHQUAKE</span> FROM NORTH TEHRAN FAULT IN KARAJ, IRAN</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Samaei, Meghdad; Miyajima, Masakatsu; Saffari, Hamid; Tsurugi, Masato</p> <p></p> <p>The main purpose of this study is to predict strong ground motions from future large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> for Karaj city, the capital of Alborz province of Iran. This city is an industrialized city having over one million populations and is located near several active faults. Finite fault <span class="hlt">modeling</span> with a dynamic corner frequency has adopted here for simulation of future large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Target fault is North Tehran fault with the length of 110 km and rupture of west part of the fault which is closest to Karaj, assumed for this simulation. For seven rupture starting points, acceleration time series in the site of Karaj Caravansary -historical building- are predicted. Peak ground accelerations for those are vary from 423 cm/s2 to 584 cm/s2 which is in the range of 1990 Rudbar <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw=7.3) . Results of acceleration simulations in different distances are also compared with attenuation relations for two types of soil. Our simulations show general agreement with one of the most well known world attenuation relations and also with one of the newest attenuation relation that hase developed for Iranian plateau.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120010090&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DEarthquake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20120010090&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DEarthquake"><span id="translatedtitle">Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) <span class="hlt">Model</span> - An Unified Concept for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Precursors Validation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pulinets, S.; Ouzounov, D.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) <span class="hlt">model</span> can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space-Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> precursors united by physical basis in one common theory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1730d0006M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1730d0006M"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysis of 2012 M8.6 Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> coseismic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> based on GPS data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maulida, Putra; Meilano, Irwan; Gunawan, Endra; Efendi, Joni</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The CGPS (Continuous Global Position System) data of Sumatran GPS Array (CGPS) and Indonesian Geospatial Agency (BIG) in Sumatra are processed to estimate the best fit coseismic <span class="hlt">model</span> of 2012 M8.6 Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. For GPS data processing, we used the GPS Analysis at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) 10.5 software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) to generate position time series of each GPS stations and estimate the coseismic offset due to the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>. The result from GPS processing indicates that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> caused displacement northeast ward up to 25 cm in northern Sumatra. Results also show subsidence at the northern Sumatran while the central part of Sumatra show northwest direction displacement, but we cannot find whether the subsidence or the uplift signal associated to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> due to the vertical data quality. Based on the GPS coseismic data, we evaluate the coseismic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> produced by previous study [1], [2], [3]. We calculated coseismic displacement using half-space with <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip <span class="hlt">model</span> input and compare it with the displacement produced form GPS data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21821639','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21821639"><span id="translatedtitle">A rodent <span class="hlt">model</span> to advance the field treatment of crush muscle injury during <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and other natural disasters.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Speck, Kirsten; Schneider, Barbara St Pierre; Deashinta, Nadia</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Approximately 170 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of 6.0 or higher magnitude occur annually worldwide. Victims often suffer crush muscle injuries involving impaired blood flow to the affected muscle and damage to the muscle fiber membrane. Current rescue efforts are directed toward preventing acute kidney injury (AKI), which develops upon extrication and muscle reperfusion. But field-usable, muscle-specific interventions may promote muscle regeneration and prevent or minimize the pathologic changes of reperfusion. Although current rodent crush injury <span class="hlt">models</span> involve reperfusion upon removal of the crush stimulus, an analysis of their methodological aspects is needed to ensure adequate simulation of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-related crush injury. The objectives of this systematic review are to (a) describe rodent crush muscle injury <span class="hlt">models</span>, (b) discuss the benefits and limitations of these <span class="hlt">models</span>, and (c) offer a recommendation for animal <span class="hlt">models</span> that would increase our understanding of muscle recovery processes after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced crush muscle injury. The most commonly used rodent <span class="hlt">model</span> uses a clamping or pressing crush stimulus directly applied to murine hindlimb muscle. This <span class="hlt">model</span> has increased our understanding of muscle regeneration but its open approach does not adequately represent the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-related crush injury. The <span class="hlt">model</span> we recommend for developing field-usable, muscle-specific interventions is a closed approach that involves a nonclamping crush stimulus. Findings from studies employing this recommended <span class="hlt">model</span> may have greater relevance for developing interventions that lessen the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>'s devastating impact on individual and community health and quality of life, especially in developing countries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.204.1266H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoJI.204.1266H"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> parameter estimation bias induced by <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude cut-off</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harte, D. S.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>We evaluate the bias in parameter estimates of the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span>. We show that when a simulated catalogue is magnitude-truncated there is considerable bias, whereas when it is not truncated there is no discernible bias. We also discuss two further implied assumptions in the ETAS and other self-exciting <span class="hlt">models</span>. First, that the triggering boundary magnitude is equivalent to the catalogue completeness magnitude. Secondly, the assumption in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship that numbers of events increase exponentially as magnitude decreases. These two assumptions are confounded with the magnitude truncation effect. We discuss the effect of these problems on analyses of real <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogues.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.7902L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.7902L"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> tsunami observations to evaluate a proposed late tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> stage for the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, Mw 8.3 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lay, Thorne; Li, Linyan; Cheung, Kwok Fai</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Resolving seaward extent of slip during great subduction zone interplate ruptures using land-based seismological and geodetic observations is challenging. <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of tsunami recordings from ocean-bottom pressure sensors of the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) network has added valuable constraints on near-trench slip for recent events. We use DART and tide gauge recordings to evaluate a proposed seismological scenario involving a late Mw 8.08 tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> following the 95 s long main rupture stage of the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, Mw 8.3 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Tsunami observations constrain the spatial extent of any late tsunami <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip to locate north of the main shock hypocenter. The proposed late shallow slip predicts tsunami signals with considerable amplitudes but shorter wavelengths compared to those of the main stage slip constrained by joint seismic and tsunami <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, yielding overprediction of first-arrival amplitudes at DART and tide gauge stations when the two stages are combined.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S23C2758A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S23C2758A"><span id="translatedtitle">Velocity Structure in the West Bohemia Seismic Zone: Velocity <span class="hlt">Models</span> Retrieved from different <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Swarms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alexandrakis, C.; Löberich, E.; Kieslich, A.; Calo, M.; Vavrycuk, V.; Buske, S.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> swarms, fluid migration and gas springs are indications of the ongoing geodynamic processes within the West Bohemia seismic zone located at the Czech-German border. The possible relationship between the fluids, gas and seismicity is of particular interest and has motivated numerous past, ongoing and future studies, including a multidisciplinary monitoring proposal through the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The most seismically active area within the West Bohemia seismic zone is located at the Czech town Nový Kostel. The Nový Kostel zone experiences frequent swarms of several hundreds to thousands of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> over a period of weeks to several months. The seismicity is always located in the same area and depth range (~5-15 km), however the activated fault segments and planes differ. For example, the 2008 swarm activated faults along the southern end of the seismic zone, the 2011 swarm activated the northern segment, and the recent 2014 swarm activated the middle of the seismic zone. This indicates changes to the local stress field, and may relate to fluid migration and/or the complicated tectonic situation. The West Bohemia Seismic Network (WEBNET) is ideally located for studying the Nový Kostel swarm area and provides good azimuthal coverage. Here, we use the high quality P- and S-wave arrival picks recorded by WEBNET to calculate swarm-dependent velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> for the 2008 and 2011 swarms, and an averaged (swarm independent) <span class="hlt">model</span> using <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> recorded between 1991 and 2011. To this end, we use double-difference tomography to calculate P- and S-wave velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. The <span class="hlt">models</span> are compared and examined in terms of swarm-dependent velocities and structures. Since the P-to-S velocity ratio is particularly sensitive to the presence of pore fluids, we derive ratio <span class="hlt">models</span> directly from the inverted P- and S-wave <span class="hlt">models</span> in order to investigate the potential influence of fluids on the seismicity. Finally, clustering</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034590','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70034590"><span id="translatedtitle">Specifying initial stress for dynamic heterogeneous <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Andrews, D.J.; Barall, M.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Dynamic rupture calculations using heterogeneous stress drop that is random and self-similar with a power-law spatial spectrum have great promise of producing realistic ground-motion predictions. We present procedures to specify initial stress for random events with a target rupture length and target magnitude. The stress function is modified in the depth dimension to account for the brittle-ductile transition at the base of the seismogenic zone. Self-similar fluctuations in stress drop are tied in this work to the long-wavelength stress variation that determines rupture length. Heterogeneous stress is related to friction levels in order to relate the <span class="hlt">model</span> to physical concepts. In a variant of the <span class="hlt">model</span>, there are high-stress asperities with low background stress. This procedure has a number of advantages: (1) rupture stops naturally, not at artificial barriers; (2) the amplitude of short-wavelength fluctuations of stress drop is not arbitrary: the spectrum is fixed to the long-wavelength fluctuation that determines rupture length; and (3) large stress drop can be confined to asperities occupying a small fraction of the total rupture area, producing slip distributions with enhanced peaks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T41A4593S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.T41A4593S"><span id="translatedtitle">Extended friction to flow laws and their applications to fault <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> across the lithosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shimamoto, T.; Noda, H.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Establishment of a constitutive law from friction to high-temperature plastic flow has long been a task for solving problems such as <span class="hlt">modeling</span> <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and plate interactions. Here we propose an empirical constitutive law that describes this transitional behavior using only friction and flow parameters, with good agreements with experimental data on halite shear zones. The law predicts a complete spectrum of steady-state and transient behaviors, including the dependence of the shear resistance of a fault on slip rate, effective normal stress and temperature. The law predicts a change in velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening with increasing temperature, very similar to the change recognized for granite under hydrothermal conditions. It is surprising that a slight deviation from the steady-state friction law due to the involvement of plastic deformation can cause a large change in the velocity dependence. We solved seismic cycles of a fault across the lithosphere with the friction to flow law using a 2D spectral boundary integral equation method, revealing dynamic rupture extending into the aseismic zone and very rich evolution of interseismic creep including slow slip prior to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Seismic slip followed by creep is consistent with natural pseudotachylytes overprinted with mylonitic deformation. Our friction-to-flow law merges "Christmas-tree" strength profiles of the lithosphere and rate-dependency fault <span class="hlt">models</span> used for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> on a unified basis. Conventionally strength profiles were drawn assuming a strain rate for the flow regime, but we emphasize that stress distribution evolves reflecting the fault behavior. A fault-zone <span class="hlt">model</span> was updated based on the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006CNSNS..11..685G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006CNSNS..11..685G"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> oscillations of a tool for deep hole honing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gouskov, Alexander M.; Voronov, Sergey A.; Butcher, Eric A.; Sinha, S. C.</p> <p>2006-09-01</p> <p>The dynamics of a rotating tool, commonly employed in deep hole honing, is considered. A mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> of the process including a dynamic representation of tool, workpiece surface and honing stones interaction is suggested and analyzed. It is shown that interaction forces are <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span>. The honing tool is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as a rotating continuous slender beam with a mandrel attached at an intermediate cross-section. The transverse oscillations of tool shaft cause variation in expansion pressure and change the interaction forces on the surface of the workpiece. The interaction forces are nonlinear and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> in the general case including delayed functions. The expansion pressure of stones turns out to be a critical parameter in a honing process. Since the removal of stock increases linearly with pressure, the productivity can be improved by increasing expansion pressure, but in certain conditions may cause dynamic instability of the tool shaft. On the other hand, the lower expansion pressure and feed rates increase accuracy. Another source of shaft instability is due to the asymmetry of the tool that leads to discrepancy of the system stiffness in the transverse directions. As a result, under certain conditions unstable parametric vibrations may occur. Needless to say, the dynamic behavior of the tool can considerably influence the machined surface formation. In this study a <span class="hlt">model</span> of honing surface formation is introduced and integrated into the <span class="hlt">model</span> of process simulation. The system response is studied for different parameters in a non-dimensional form. Thus it is possible to analyze a set of real processes by applying the similarity conditions. The variation in the machined surface having various initial discrepancies from ideal cylinder is also analyzed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPA51A2070G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPA51A2070G"><span id="translatedtitle">E-DECIDER: Using Earth Science Data and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Tools to Develop Decision Support for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Disaster Response</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Glasscoe, M. T.; Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Stough, T. M.; Burl, M. C.; Pierce, M.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; yoder, M. R.; Bawden, G. W.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing new capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> software to provide decision support for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster management and response. Geodetic imaging data, including from inteferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS, have a rich scientific heritage for use in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> research. Survey grade GPS was developed in the 1980s and the first InSAR image of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was produced for the 1992 Landers event. As more of these types of data have become increasingly available they have also shown great utility for providing key information for disaster response. Work has been done to translate these data into useful and actionable information for decision makers in the event of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster. In addition to observed data, <span class="hlt">modeling</span> tools provide essential preliminary estimates while data are still being collected and/or processed, which can be refined as data products become available. Now, with more data and better <span class="hlt">models</span>, we are able apply these to responders who need easy tools and routinely produced data products. E-DECIDER incorporates the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting methodology and geophysical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and forecasting tools allows us to provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER has taken advantage of the legacy of Earth science data, including MODIS, Landsat, SCIGN, PBO, UAVSAR, and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> tools such as the ones developed by QuakeSim, in order to deliver successful decision support products for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster response. The project has</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/pdf/ofr2013-1165.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/pdf/ofr2013-1165.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">Uniform California <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous <span class="hlt">model</span> (UCERF2). The rates of all <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of <span class="hlt">models</span> is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation <span class="hlt">models</span> (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation <span class="hlt">models</span> are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of <span class="hlt">models</span> is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AcGeo..64.2136G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AcGeo..64.2136G"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysis of Coseismic Fault Slip <span class="hlt">Models</span> of the 2012 Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>: Importance of GPS Data for Crustal Deformation Studies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gunawan, Endra; Maulida, Putra; Meilano, Irwan; Irsyam, Masyhur; Efendi, Joni</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Based on continuous GPS data, we analyze coseismic deformation due to the 2012 Indian Ocean <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We use the available coseismic slip <span class="hlt">models</span> of the 2012 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, derived from geodetic and/or seismic waveform inversion, to calculate the coseismic displacements in the Andaman-Nicobar, Sumatra and Java. In our analysis, we employ a spherical, layered <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Earth and we find that Java Island experienced coseismic displacements up to 8 mm, as also observed by our GPS network. Compared to coseismic offsets measured from GPS data, a coseismic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> derived from multiple observations produced better results than a <span class="hlt">model</span> based on a single type of observation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030112','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030112"><span id="translatedtitle">Coseismic source <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, Taiwan, determined from GPS measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Ching, K.-E.; Rau, R.-J.; Zeng, Y.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>A coseismic source <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, Taiwan, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was well determined with 213 GPS stations, providing a unique opportunity to study the characteristics of coseismic displacements of a high-angle buried reverse fault. Horizontal coseismic displacements show fault-normal shortening across the fault trace. Displacements on the hanging wall reveal fault-parallel and fault-normal lengthening. The largest horizontal and vertical GPS displacements reached 153 and 302 mm, respectively, in the middle part of the network. Fault geometry and slip distribution were determined by inverting GPS data using a three-dimensional (3-D) layered-elastic dislocation <span class="hlt">model</span>. The slip is mainly concentrated within a 44 ?? 14 km slip patch centered at 15 km depth with peak amplitude of 126.6 cm. Results from 3-D forward-elastic <span class="hlt">model</span> tests indicate that the dome-shaped folding on the hanging wall is reproduced with fault dips greater than 40??. Compared with the rupture area and average slip from slow slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and a compilation of finite source <span class="hlt">models</span> of 18 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> generated a larger rupture area and a lower stress drop, suggesting lower than average friction. Hence the Chengkung <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> seems to be a transitional example between regular and slow slip <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The coseismic source <span class="hlt">model</span> of this event indicates that the Chihshang fault is divided into a creeping segment in the north and the locked segment in the south. An average recurrence interval of 50 years for a magnitude 6.8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was estimated for the southern fault segment. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/ds-91/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/ds-91/"><span id="translatedtitle">Depth to the Juan De Fuca slab beneath the Cascadia subduction margin - a 3-D <span class="hlt">model</span> for sorting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>McCrory, Patricia A.; Blair, J. Luke; Oppenheimer, David H.; Walter, Stephen R.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>We present an updated <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Juan de Fuca slab beneath southern British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and northern California, and use this <span class="hlt">model</span> to separate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurring above and below the slab surface. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is based on depth contours previously published by Fluck and others (1997). Our <span class="hlt">model</span> attempts to rectify a number of shortcomings in the original <span class="hlt">model</span> and update it with new work. The most significant improvements include (1) a gridded slab surface in geo-referenced (ArcGIS) format, (2) continuation of the slab surface to its full northern and southern edges, (3) extension of the slab surface from 50-km depth down to 110-km beneath the Cascade arc volcanoes, and (4) revision of the slab shape based on new seismic-reflection and seismic-refraction studies. We have used this surface to sort <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and present some general observations and interpretations of seismicity patterns revealed by our analysis. For example, deep <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> within the Juan de Fuca Plate beneath western Washington define a linear trend that may mark a tear within the subducting plate Also <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> associated with the northern stands of the San Andreas Fault abruptly terminate at the inferred southern boundary of the Juan de Fuca slab. In addition, we provide files of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> above and below the slab surface and a 3-D animation or fly-through showing a shaded-relief map with plate boundaries, the slab surface, and hypocenters for use as a visualization tool.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150006936&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DEarthquake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150006936&hterms=Earthquake&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DEarthquake"><span id="translatedtitle">Integrating Machine Learning into a Crowdsourced <span class="hlt">Model</span> for <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Induced Damage Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rebbapragada, Umaa; Oommen, Thomas</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>On January 12th, 2010, a catastrophic 7.0M <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> devastated the country of Haiti. In the aftermath of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, it is important to rapidly assess damaged areas in order to mobilize the appropriate resources. The Haiti damage assessment effort introduced a promising <span class="hlt">model</span> that uses crowdsourcing to map damaged areas in freely available remotely-sensed data. This paper proposes the application of machine learning methods to improve this <span class="hlt">model</span>. Specifically, we apply work on learning from multiple, imperfect experts to the assessment of volunteer reliability, and propose the use of image segmentation to automate the detection of damaged areas. We wrap both tasks in an active learning framework in order to shift volunteer effort from mapping a full catalog of images to the generation of high-quality training data. We hypothesize that the integration of machine learning into this <span class="hlt">model</span> improves its reliability, maintains the speed of damage assessment, and allows the <span class="hlt">model</span> to scale to higher data volumes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1348/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1348/"><span id="translatedtitle">Velocity and Density <span class="hlt">Models</span> Incorporating the Cascadia Subduction Zone for 3D <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Ground Motion Simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stephenson, William J.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>INTRODUCTION In support of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards and ground motion studies in the Pacific Northwest, three-dimensional P- and S-wave velocity (3D Vp and Vs) and density (3D rho) <span class="hlt">models</span> incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone have been developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2?N to 50?N latitude, and from about -122?W to -129?W longitude. The <span class="hlt">model</span> volume includes elevations from 0 km to 60 km (elevation is opposite of depth in <span class="hlt">model</span> coordinates). Stephenson and Frankel (2003) presented preliminary ground motion simulations valid up to 0.1 Hz using an earlier version of these <span class="hlt">models</span>. The version of the <span class="hlt">model</span> volume described here includes more structural and geophysical detail, particularly in the Puget Lowland as required for scenario <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulations in the development of the Seattle Urban Hazards Maps (Frankel and others, 2007). Olsen and others (in press) used the <span class="hlt">model</span> volume discussed here to perform a Cascadia simulation up to 0.5 Hz using a Sumatra-Andaman Islands rupture history. As research from the EarthScope Program (http://www.earthscope.org) is published, a wealth of important detail can be added to these <span class="hlt">model</span> volumes, particularly to depths of the upper-mantle. However, at the time of development for this <span class="hlt">model</span> version, no EarthScope-specific results were incorporated. This report is intended to be a reference for colleagues and associates who have used or are planning to use this preliminary <span class="hlt">model</span> in their research. To this end, it is intended that these <span class="hlt">models</span> will be considered a beginning template for a community velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Cascadia region as more data and results become available.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1441..555A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AIPC.1441..555A"><span id="translatedtitle">The FrPNC experiment at TRIUMF: Atomic parity <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> in francium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aubin, S.; Gomez, E.; Behr, J. A.; Pearson, M. R.; Sheng, D.; Zhang, J.; Collister, R.; Melconian, D.; Flambaum, V. V.; Sprouse, G. D.; Orozco, L. A.; Gwinner, G.</p> <p>2012-09-01</p> <p>The FrPNC collaboration has begun the construction of an on-line laser cooling and trapping apparatus at TRIUMF to measure atomic parity <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> (PNC) and the nuclear anapole moment in a string of artificially produced francium isotopes. Atomic PNC experiments provide unique high precision tests of the electroweak sector of the Standard <span class="hlt">Model</span> at very low energies. Furthermore, precision measurements of spin-dependent atomic PNC can determine nuclear anapole moments and probe the weak force within the nucleus. Francium is an excellent candidate for precision measurements of atomic PNC due to its simple electronic structure and enhanced parity violation: both the optical PNC and anapole moment signals are expected to be over an order of magnitude larger than in cesium.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26677132','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26677132"><span id="translatedtitle">Wetting of <span class="hlt">nonconserved</span> residue-backbones: A feature indicative of aggregation associated regions of proteins.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pradhan, Mohan R; Pal, Arumay; Hu, Zhongqiao; Kannan, Srinivasaraghavan; Chee Keong, Kwoh; Lane, David P; Verma, Chandra S</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Aggregation is an irreversible form of protein complexation and often toxic to cells. The process entails partial or major unfolding that is largely driven by hydration. We <span class="hlt">model</span> the role of hydration in aggregation using "Dehydrons." "Dehydrons" are unsatisfied backbone hydrogen bonds in proteins that seek shielding from water molecules by associating with ligands or proteins. We find that the residues at aggregation interfaces have hydrated backbones, and in contrast to other forms of protein-protein interactions, are under less evolutionary pressure to be conserved. Combining evolutionary conservation of residues and extent of backbone hydration allows us to distinguish regions on proteins associated with aggregation (<span class="hlt">non-conserved</span> dehydron-residues) from other interaction interfaces (conserved dehydron-residues). This novel feature can complement the existing strategies used to investigate protein aggregation/complexation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.S31B1911L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.S31B1911L"><span id="translatedtitle">Focal Depth of the WenChuan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Aftershocks from <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of Seismic Depth Phases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Luo, Y.; Zeng, X.; Chong, J.; Ni, S.; Chen, Y.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>After the 05/12/2008 great WenChuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Sichuan Province of China, tens of thousands <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurred with hundreds of them stronger than M4. Those aftershocks provide valuable information about seismotectonics and rupture processes for the mainshock, particularly accurate spatial distribution of aftershocks is very informational for determining rupture fault planes. However focal depth can not be well resolved just with first arrivals recorded by relatively sparse network in Sichuan Province, therefore 3D seismicity distribution is difficult to obtain though horizontal location can be located with accuracy of 5km. Instead local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn, sPL and teleseismic pP,sP are very sensitive to depth, and be readily <span class="hlt">modeled</span> to determine depth with accuracy of 2km. With reference 1D velocity structure resolved from receiver functions and seismic refraction studies, local/regional depth phases such as sPmP, sPn and sPL are identified by comparing observed waveform with synthetic seismograms by generalized ray theory and reflectivity methods. For teleseismic depth phases well observed for M5.5 and stronger events, we developed an algorithm in inverting both depth and focal mechanism from P and SH waveforms. Also we employed the Cut and Paste (CAP) method developed by Zhao and Helmberger in <span class="hlt">modeling</span> mechanism and depth with local waveforms, which constrains depth by fitting Pnl waveforms and the relative weight between surface wave and Pnl. After <span class="hlt">modeling</span> all the depth phases for hundreds of events , we find that most of the M4 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occur between 2-18km depth, with aftershocks depth ranging 4-12km in the southern half of Longmenshan fault while aftershocks in the northern half featuring large depth range up to 18km. Therefore seismogenic zone in the northern segment is deeper as compared to the southern segment. All the aftershocks occur in upper crust, given that the Moho is deeper than 40km, or even 60km west of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED41A0830M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED41A0830M"><span id="translatedtitle">Using Novel <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Early Warning (EEW) with Optimized Sensor <span class="hlt">Model</span> to Determine How Establishments Will Be Affected in a 7.0 Hayward <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Scenario</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Munnangi, P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Bay Area is one of the world's most vulnerable places to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and being ready is vital to survival. The purpose of this study was to determine the distribution of places affected in a 7.0 Hayward <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and the effectiveness of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning (EEW) in this scenario. We manipulated three variables: the location of the epicenter, the station placement, and algorithm used for early warning. To compute the blind zone and warning times, we calculated the P and S wave velocities by using data from the Northern California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Catalog and the radius of the blind zone using appropriate statistical <span class="hlt">models</span>. We came up with a linear regression <span class="hlt">model</span> directly relating warning time and distance from the epicenter. We used Google Earth to plot three hypothetical epicenters on the Hayward Fault and determine which establishments would be affected. By varying the locations, the blind zones and warning times changed. As the radius from the epicenter increased, the warning times also increased. The intensity decreased as the distance from the epicenter grew. We determined which cities were most vulnerable. We came up with a list of cities and their predicted warning times in this hypothetical scenario. For example, for the epicenter in northern Hayward, the cities at most risk were San Pablo, Richmond, and surrounding cities, while the cities at least risk were Gilroy, Modesto, Lincoln, and other cities within that radius. To find optimal station placement, we chose two cities with stations placed variable distances apart from each other. There was more variability in scattered stations than dense stations, suggesting stations placed closer together are more effective since they provide precise warnings. We compared the algorithms ElarmS, which is currently used in the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and Onsite, which is a single-sensor approach that uses one to two stations, by calculating the blind zone and warning times for each</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031901','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031901"><span id="translatedtitle">Implications of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on tsunami forecast and assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> for great subduction-zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Geist, Eric L.; Titov, Vasily V.; Arcas, Diego; Pollitz, Fred F.; Bilek, Susan L.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Results from different tsunami forecasting and hazard assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> are compared with observed tsunami wave heights from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Forecast <span class="hlt">models</span> are based on initial <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> information and are used to estimate tsunami wave heights during propagation. An empirical forecast relationship based only on seismic moment provides a close estimate to the observed mean regional and maximum local tsunami runup heights for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami but underestimates mean regional tsunami heights at azimuths in line with the tsunami beaming pattern (e.g., Sri Lanka, Thailand). Standard forecast <span class="hlt">models</span> developed from subfault discretization of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture, in which deep- ocean sea level observations are used to constrain slip, are also tested. Forecast <span class="hlt">models</span> of this type use tsunami time-series measurements at points in the deep ocean. As a proxy for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a transect of deep-ocean tsunami amplitudes recorded by satellite altimetry is used to constrain slip along four subfaults of the M >9 Sumatra–Andaman <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This proxy <span class="hlt">model</span> performs well in comparison to observed tsunami wave heights, travel times, and inundation patterns at Banda Aceh. Hypothetical tsunami hazard assessments <span class="hlt">models</span> based on end- member estimates for average slip and rupture length (Mw 9.0–9.3) are compared with tsunami observations. Using average slip (low end member) and rupture length (high end member) (Mw 9.14) consistent with many seismic, geodetic, and tsunami inversions adequately estimates tsunami runup in most regions, except the extreme runup in the western Aceh province. The high slip that occurred in the southern part of the rupture zone linked to runup in this location is a larger fluctuation than expected from standard stochastic slip <span class="hlt">models</span>. In addition, excess moment release (∼9%) deduced from geodetic studies in comparison to seismic moment estimates may generate additional tsunami energy, if the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21537355','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21537355"><span id="translatedtitle">Parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in odd isotopes of single trapped atomic ions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Sahoo, B. K.; Mandal, P.; Mukherjee, M.</p> <p>2011-03-15</p> <p>We have estimated the size of the light shifts due to parity-<span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> (PNC) interactions in different isotopes of Ba{sup +} and Ra{sup +} ions based on the work of Fortson [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 2383 (1993)]. We have used the nuclear-spin-independent (NSI) amplitudes calculated earlier by us [Phys. Rev. Lett. 96, 163003 (2006); Phys. Rev. A 78, 050501(R) (2008)], and we have employed the third-order many-body perturbation theory [MBPT(3)] in this work to estimate the nuclear-spin-dependent (NSD) amplitudes in these ions. Ra{sup +} is found to be more favorable than Ba{sup +} for measuring both the NSI and NSD PNC observables.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23703864','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23703864"><span id="translatedtitle">Rare <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> LRP6 mutations are associated with metabolic syndrome.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Singh, Rajvir; Smith, Emily; Fathzadeh, Mohsen; Liu, Wenzhong; Go, Gwang-Woong; Subrahmanyan, Lakshman; Faramarzi, Saeed; McKenna, William; Mani, Arya</p> <p>2013-09-01</p> <p>A rare mutation in LRP6 has been shown to underlie autosomal dominant coronary artery disease (CAD) and metabolic syndrome in an Iranian kindred. The prevalence and spectrum of LRP6 mutations in the disease population of the United States is not known. Two hundred white Americans with early onset familial CAD and metabolic syndrome and 2,000 healthy Northern European controls were screened for <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> mutations in LRP6. Three novel mutations were identified, which cosegregated with the metabolic traits in the kindreds of the affected subjects and none in the controls. All three mutations reside in the second propeller domain, which plays a critical role in ligand binding. Two of the mutations substituted highly conserved arginines in the second YWTD domain and the third substituted a conserved glycosylation site. The functional characterization of one of the variants showed that it impairs Wnt signaling and acts as a loss of function mutation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JDE...260..517K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JDE...260..517K"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> perturbations of homoclinic snaking scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Knobloch, Jürgen; Vielitz, Martin</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Homoclinic snaking refers to the continuation of homoclinic orbits to an equilibrium E near a heteroclinic cycle connecting E and a periodic orbit P. Typically homoclinic snaking appears in one-parameter families of reversible, conservative systems. Here we discuss perturbations of this scenario which are both non-reversible and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span>. We treat this problem analytically in the spirit of the work [3]. The continuation of homoclinic orbits happens with respect to both the original continuation parameter μ and the perturbation parameter λ. The continuation curves are parametrised by the dwelling time L of the homoclinic orbit near P. It turns out that λ (L) tends to zero while the μ vs. L diagram displays isolas or criss-cross snaking curves in a neighbourhood of the original snakes-and-ladder structure. In the course of our studies we adapt both Fenichel coordinates near P and the analysis of Shilnikov problems near P to the present situation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........59R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........59R"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-Conservative</span> Variational Approximation for Nonlinear Schrodinger Equations and its Applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rossi, Julia M.</p> <p></p> <p>Recently, Galley [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 174301 (2013)] proposed an initial value problem formulation of Hamilton's principle applied to <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> systems. Here, we explore this formulation for complex partial differential equations of the nonlinear Schrodinger (NLS) type, using the <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> variational approximation (NCVA) outlined by Galley. We compare the formalism of the NCVA to two variational techniques used in dissipative systems; namely, the perturbed variational approximation and a generalization of the so-called Kantorovitch method. We showcase the relevance of the NCVA method by exploring test case examples within the NLS setting including combinations of linear and density dependent loss and gain. We also present an example applied to exciton-polariton condensates that intrinsically feature loss and a spatially dependent gain term. We also study a variant of the NLS used in optical systems called the Lugiato-Lefever (LL) <span class="hlt">model</span> applied to (i) spontaneous temporal symmetry breaking instability in a coherently-driven optical Kerr resonator observed experimentally by Xu and Coen in Opt. Lett. 39, 3492 (2014) and (ii) temporal tweezing of cavity solitons in a passive loop of optical fiber pumped by a continuous-wave laser beam observed experimentally by Jang, Erkintalo, Coen, and Murdoch in Nat. Commun. 6, 7370 (2015). For application (i) we perform a detailed stability analysis and analyze the temporal bifurcation structure of stationary symmetric configurations and the emerging asymmetric states as a function of the pump power. For intermediate pump powers a pitchfork loop is responsible for the destabilization of symmetric states towards stationary asymmetric ones while at large pump powers we find the emergence of periodic asymmetric solutions via a Hopf bifurcation. For application (ii) we study the existence and dynamics of cavity solitons through phase-modulation of the holding beam. We find parametric regions for the manipulation of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGeo...51..205A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGeo...51..205A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> deformation in the northwestern Sierras Pampeanas of Argentina based on seismic waveform <span class="hlt">modelling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alvarado, Patricia; Ramos, Victor A.</p> <p>2011-04-01</p> <p>We investigate the seismic properties of modern crustal seismicity in the northwestern Sierras Pampeanas of the Andean retroarc region of Argentina. We <span class="hlt">modelled</span> the complete regional seismic broadband waveforms of two crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in the Sierra de Velasco on 28 May 2002 and in the Sierra de Ambato on 7 September 2004. For each <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> we obtained the seismic moment tensor inversion (SMTI) and tested for its focal depth. Our results indicate mainly thrust focal mechanism solutions of magnitudes Mw 5.8 and 6.2 and focal depths of 10 and 8 km, respectively. These results represent the larger seismicity and shallower focal depths in the last 100 years in this region. The SMTI 2002 and 2004 solutions are consistent with previous determinations for crustal seismicity in this region that also used seismic waveform <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. Taken together, the results for crustal seismicity of magnitudes ≥5.0 in the last 30 years are consistent with an average P-axis horizontally oriented by an azimuth of 125° and T-axis orientation of azimuth 241° and plunge 58°. This modern crustal seismicity and the historical <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are associated with two active reverse faulting systems of opposite vergences bounding the eastern margin of the Sierra de Velasco in the south and the southwestern margin of the Sierra de Ambato in the north. Strain recorded by focal mechanisms of the larger seismicity is very consistent over this region and is in good agreement with neotectonic activity during the last 11,000 years by Costa (2008) and Casa et al. (in press); this shows that the dominant deformation in this part of the Sierras Pampeanas is mainly controlled by contraction. Seismic deformation related to propagation of thrusts and long-lived shear zones of this area permit to disregard previous proposals, which suggested an extensional or sinistral regime for the geomorphic evolution since Pleistocene.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRB..116.8308N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRB..116.8308N"><span id="translatedtitle">Generation mechanism of slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: Numerical analysis based on a dynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> with brittle-ductile mixed fault heterogeneity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nakata, Ryoko; Ando, Ryosuke; Hori, Takane; Ide, Satoshi</p> <p>2011-08-01</p> <p>Various characteristics have been discovered for small, slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurring along subduction zones, which are deep nonvolcanic tremor, low-frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (LFEs), and very low frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (VLFs). In this study, we <span class="hlt">model</span> these slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using a dynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> consisting of a cluster of frictionally unstable patches on a stable background. The controlling parameters in our <span class="hlt">model</span> are related to the patch distribution and the viscosity of both the patches and the background. By decreasing patch density or increasing viscosity, we observed the transition in rupture propagation mechanism, that is, from fast elastodynamic interactions characterized by an elastic wave propagation to slow diffusion limited by viscous relaxation times of traction on fault patches and/or background. Some sets of these geometrical and frictional parameters collectively explain the moment rate functions, source spectra, and scaled energy of observed slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In addition, we successfully explain both parabolic and constant velocity migrations in the case of the diffusion-limited rupture. Therefore, the observed various characteristics of tremor, LFEs, VLFs, and, potentially, slow slip events, may be essentially explained by our simple <span class="hlt">model</span> with a few parameters describing source structures and frictional properties of brittle-ductile transition zones along plate boundaries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.7949D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.7949D"><span id="translatedtitle">The Iquique <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence of April 2014: Bayesian <span class="hlt">modeling</span> accounting for prediction uncertainty</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Duputel, Z.; Jiang, J.; Jolivet, R.; Simons, M.; Rivera, L.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Riel, B.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Samsonov, S. V.; Ortega Culaciati, F.; Minson, S. E.</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174954','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174954"><span id="translatedtitle">The Iquique <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence of April 2014: Bayesian <span class="hlt">modeling</span> accounting for prediction uncertainty</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26249655','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26249655"><span id="translatedtitle">Statistical <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and Tsunami.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Anderson, Dana; Davidson, Rachel A; Himoto, Keisuke; Scawthorn, Charles</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>In this article, we develop statistical <span class="hlt">models</span> to predict the number and geographic distribution of fires caused by <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground motion and tsunami inundation in Japan. Using new, uniquely large, and consistent data sets from the 2011 Tōhoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and tsunami, we fitted three types of <span class="hlt">models</span>-generalized linear <span class="hlt">models</span> (GLMs), generalized additive <span class="hlt">models</span> (GAMs), and boosted regression trees (BRTs). This is the first time the latter two have been used in this application. A simple conceptual framework guided identification of candidate covariates. <span class="hlt">Models</span> were then compared based on their out-of-sample predictive power, goodness of fit to the data, ease of implementation, and relative importance of the framework concepts. For the ground motion data set, we recommend a Poisson GAM; for the tsunami data set, a negative binomial (NB) GLM or NB GAM. The best <span class="hlt">models</span> generate out-of-sample predictions of the total number of ignitions in the region within one or two. Prefecture-level prediction errors average approximately three. All <span class="hlt">models</span> demonstrate predictive power far superior to four from the literature that were also tested. A nonlinear relationship is apparent between ignitions and ground motion, so for GLMs, which assume a linear response-covariate relationship, instrumental intensity was the preferred ground motion covariate because it captures part of that nonlinearity. Measures of commercial exposure were preferred over measures of residential exposure for both ground motion and tsunami ignition <span class="hlt">models</span>. This may vary in other regions, but nevertheless highlights the value of testing alternative measures for each concept. <span class="hlt">Models</span> with the best predictive power included two or three covariates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/0311/report.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/0311/report.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazards evaluation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stanley, Dal; Villaseñor, Antonio; Benz, Harley</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> developed using local <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation <span class="hlt">models</span> based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs <span class="hlt">model</span> anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> process. Significant results from the velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. This</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950039717&hterms=Diabase&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DDiabase','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950039717&hterms=Diabase&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3DDiabase"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of periodic great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Reches, Ze'ev; Schubert, Gerald; Anderson, Charles</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>We analyze the cycle of great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The <span class="hlt">models</span> are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. <span class="hlt">Models</span> with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic <span class="hlt">models</span>. <span class="hlt">Models</span> with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic <span class="hlt">models</span> and exhibit no transient stages. The <span class="hlt">model</span> predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by <span class="hlt">models</span> which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12513267','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12513267"><span id="translatedtitle">Diffusion of epicenters of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Helmstetter, A; Sornette, D</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span> is a simple stochastic process <span class="hlt">modeling</span> seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power-law decay approximately 1/t(1+theta) of seismicity after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>) and Gutenberg-Richter law (power-law distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> energies). In order to describe also the space distribution of seismicity, we use in addition a power-law distribution approximately 1/r(1+mu) of distances between triggered and triggering <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> has been studied for the last two decades to <span class="hlt">model</span> real seismicity catalogs and to obtain short-term probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a mapping between the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> and a class of CTRW (continuous time random walk) <span class="hlt">models</span>, based on the identification of their corresponding master equations. This mapping allows us to use the wealth of results previously obtained on anomalous diffusion of CTRW. After translating into the relevant variable for the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span>, we provide a classification of the different regimes of diffusion of seismic activity triggered by a mainshock. Specifically, we derive the relation between the average distance between aftershocks and the mainshock as a function of the time from the mainshock and of the joint probability distribution of the times and locations of the aftershocks. The different regimes are fully characterized by the two exponents theta and mu. Our predictions are checked by careful numerical simulations. We stress the distinction between the "bare" Omori law describing the seismic rate activated directly by a mainshock and the "renormalized" Omori law taking into account all possible cascades from mainshocks to aftershocks of aftershock of aftershock, and so on. In particular, we predict that seismic diffusion or subdiffusion occurs and should be observable only when the observed Omori exponent is less than 1, because this signals the operation of the renormalization of the bare Omori law, also at the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/966561','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/966561"><span id="translatedtitle">Improving <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Explosion Discrimination using Attenuation <span class="hlt">Models</span> of the Crust and Upper Mantle</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Pasyanos, M E; Walter, W R; Matzel, E M; Rodgers, A J; Ford, S R; Gok, R; Sweeney, J J</p> <p>2009-07-06</p> <p>In the past year, we have made significant progress on developing and calibrating methodologies to improve <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-explosion discrimination using high-frequency regional P/S amplitude ratios. Closely-spaced <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and explosions generally discriminate easily using this method, as demonstrated by recordings of explosions from test sites around the world. In relatively simple geophysical regions such as the continental parts of the Yellow Sea and Korean Peninsula (YSKP) we have successfully used a 1-D Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Correction methodology (1-D MDAC) to extend the regional P/S technique over large areas. However in tectonically complex regions such as the Middle East, or the mixed oceanic-continental paths for the YSKP the lateral variations in amplitudes are not well predicted by 1-D corrections and 1-D MDAC P/S discrimination over broad areas can perform poorly. We have developed a new technique to map 2-D attenuation structure in the crust and upper mantle. We retain the MDAC source <span class="hlt">model</span> and geometrical spreading formulation and use the amplitudes of the four primary regional phases (Pn, Pg, Sn, Lg), to develop a simultaneous multi-phase approach to determine the P-wave and S-wave attenuation of the lithosphere. The methodology allows solving for attenuation structure in different depth layers. Here we show results for the P and S-wave attenuation in crust and upper mantle layers. When applied to the Middle East, we find variations in the attenuation quality factor Q that are consistent with the complex tectonics of the region. For example, provinces along the tectonically-active Tethys collision zone (e.g. Turkish Plateau, Zagros) have high attenuation in both the crust and upper mantle, while the stable outlying regions like the Indian Shield generally have low attenuation. In the Arabian Shield, however, we find that the low attenuation in this Precambrian crust is underlain by a high-attenuation upper mantle similar to the nearby Red</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840004594','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840004594"><span id="translatedtitle">Crustal deformation, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle, and <span class="hlt">models</span> of viscoelastic flow in the asthenosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, S. C.; Kramer, M. J.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>The crustal deformation patterns associated with the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle can depend strongly on the rheological properties of subcrustal material. Substantial deviations from the simple patterns for a uniformly elastic earth are expected when viscoelastic flow of subcrustal material is considered. The detailed description of the deformation pattern and in particular the surface displacements, displacement rates, strains, and strain rates depend on the structure and geometry of the material near the seismogenic zone. The origin of some of these differences are resolved by analyzing several different linear viscoelastic <span class="hlt">models</span> with a common finite element computational technique. The <span class="hlt">models</span> involve strike-slip faulting and include a thin channel asthenosphere <span class="hlt">model</span>, a <span class="hlt">model</span> with a varying thickness lithosphere, and a <span class="hlt">model</span> with a viscoelastic inclusion below the brittle slip plane. The calculations reveal that the surface deformation pattern is most sensitive to the rheology of the material that lies below the slip plane in a volume whose extent is a few times the fault depth. If this material is viscoelastic, the surface deformation pattern resembles that of an elastic layer lying over a viscoelastic half-space. When the thickness or breath of the viscoelastic material is less than a few times the fault depth, then the surface deformation pattern is altered and geodetic measurements are potentially useful for studying the details of subsurface geometry and structure. Distinguishing among the various <span class="hlt">models</span> is best accomplished by making geodetic measurements not only near the fault but out to distances equal to several times the fault depth. This is where the <span class="hlt">model</span> differences are greatest; these differences will be most readily detected shortly after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> when viscoelastic effects are most pronounced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S21C..06C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFM.S21C..06C"><span id="translatedtitle">Optimizing the Parameters of the Rate-and-State Constitutive Law in an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Clustering <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Console, R.; Murru, M.; Catalli, F.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>The phenomenon of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> clustering, i.e. the increase of occurrence probability for seismic events close in space and time to other previous <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, has been <span class="hlt">modeled</span> both by statistical and physical processes. From a statistical viewpoint, the so-called epidemic <span class="hlt">model</span> (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations have become fairly well known in the seismological community. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian <span class="hlt">model</span> through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity. On the other hand, in the last decade many papers have been published on the so-called Coulomb stress change principle, based on the theory of elasticity, showing qualitatively that an increase of the Coulomb stress in a given area is usually associated with an increase of seismic activity. More specifically, the rate-and-state theory developed by Dieterich in the `90s has been able to give a physical justification to the phenomenon known as Omori law. According to this law, a mainshock is followed by a series of aftershocks whose frequency decreases in time as an inverse power law. In this study we give an outline of the above mentioned stochastic and physical <span class="hlt">models</span>, and build up an approach by which these <span class="hlt">models</span> can be merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. The application to the seismicity of Japan from 1970 to 2003 shows that the new <span class="hlt">model</span> incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs even better of the purely stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> with a smaller number of free parameters</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840064026&hterms=earthquake+description&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dearthquake%2Bdescription','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840064026&hterms=earthquake+description&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dearthquake%2Bdescription"><span id="translatedtitle">Crustal deformation, the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle, and <span class="hlt">models</span> of viscoelastic flow in the asthenosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, S. C.; Kramer, M. J.</p> <p>1984-01-01</p> <p>The crustal deformation patterns associated with the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle can depend strongly on the rheological properties of subcrustal material. Substantial deviations from the simple patterns for a uniformly elastic earth are expected when viscoelastic flow of subcrustal material is considered. The detailed description of the deformation pattern and in particular the surface displacements, displacement rates, strains, and strain rates depend on the structure and geometry of the material near the seismogenic zone. The origin of some of these differences are resolved by analyzing several different linear viscoelastic <span class="hlt">models</span> with a common finite element computational technique. The <span class="hlt">models</span> involve strike-slip faulting and include a thin channel asthenosphere <span class="hlt">model</span>, a <span class="hlt">model</span> with a varying thickness lithosphere, and a <span class="hlt">model</span> with a viscoelastic inclusion below the brittle slip plane. The calculations reveal that the surface deformation pattern is most sensitive to the rheology of the material that lies below the slip plane in a volume whose extent is a few times the fault depth. If this material is viscoelastic, the surface deformation pattern resembles that of an elastic layer lying over a viscoelastic half-space. When the thickness or breath of the viscoelastic material is less than a few times the fault depth, then the surface deformation pattern is altered and geodetic measurements are potentially useful for studying the details of subsurface geometry and structure. Distinguishing among the various <span class="hlt">models</span> is best accomplished by making geodetic measurements not only near the fault but out to distances equal to several times the fault depth. This is where the <span class="hlt">model</span> differences are greatest; these differences will be most readily detected shortly after an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> when viscoelastic effects are most pronounced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JSeis..19..831Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JSeis..19..831Y"><span id="translatedtitle">New <span class="hlt">models</span> for frequency content prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> records based on Iranian ground-motion data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yaghmaei-Sabegh, Saman</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>This paper presents the development of new and simple empirical <span class="hlt">models</span> for frequency content prediction of ground-motion records to resolve the assumed limitations on the useable magnitude range of previous studies. Three period values are used in the analysis for describing the frequency content of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ground-motions named as the average spectral period ( T avg), the mean period ( T m), and the smoothed spectral predominant period ( T 0). The proposed <span class="hlt">models</span> could predict these scalar indicators as function of magnitude, closest site-to-source distance and local site condition. Three site classes as rock, stiff soil, and soft soil has been considered in the analysis. The results of the proposed relationships have been compared with those of other published <span class="hlt">models</span>. It has been found that the resulting regression equations can be used to predict scalar frequency content estimators over a wide range of magnitudes including magnitudes below 5.5.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......192G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......192G"><span id="translatedtitle">Applications of Multi-Cycle <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Simulations to <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazard</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gilchrist, Jacquelyn Joan</p> <p></p> <p>This dissertation seeks to contribute to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard analyses and forecasting by conducting a detailed study of the processes controlling the occurrence, and particularly the clustering, of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the probabilities of these large events, and the dynamics of their ruptures. We use the multi-cycle <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulator RSQSim to investigate several fundamental aspects of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence in order to improve the understanding of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard. RSQSim, a 3D, boundary element code that incorporates rate- and state-friction to simulate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in fully interacting, complex fault systems has been successful at <span class="hlt">modeling</span> several aspects of fault slip and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence. Multi-event <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> with time-dependent nucleation based on rate- and state-dependent friction, such as RSQSim, provide a viable physics-based method for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> processes. These <span class="hlt">models</span> can provide a better understanding of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard by improving our knowledge of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> processes and probabilities. RSQSim is fast and efficient, and therefore is able to simulate very long sequences of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (from hundreds of thousands to millions of events). This makes RSQSim an ideal instrument for filling in the current gaps in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data, from short and incomplete <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalogs to unrealistic initial conditions used for dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span>. RSQSim catalogs include foreshocks, aftershocks, and occasional clusters of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the statistics of which are important for the estimation of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probabilities. Additionally, RSQSim finds a near optimal nucleation location that enables ruptures to propagate at minimal stress conditions and thus can provide suites of heterogeneous initial conditions for dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> that produce reduced ground motions compared to <span class="hlt">models</span> with homogeneous initial stresses and arbitrary forced nucleation locations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70012619','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70012619"><span id="translatedtitle">On Chinese <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history - An attempt to <span class="hlt">model</span> an incomplete data set by point process analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Lee, W.H.K.; Brillinger, D.R.</p> <p>1979-01-01</p> <p>Since the 1950s, the Academia Sinica in Peking, People's Republic of China, has carried out extensive research on the Chinese <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history. With a historical record dating back some 3000 years, a wealth of information on Chinese <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> exists. Despite this monumental undertaking by the Academia Sinica, much work is still necessary to correct the existing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data for historical changes in population, customs, modes of communication, and dynasties. In this paper we report on the status of our investigation of Chinese <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history and present some preliminary results. By applying point process analysis of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in 'Central China', we found suggestions of (1) lower <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity at intervals of about 175 years and 375 years, and (2) higher <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity at an interval of about 300 years. ?? 1979 Birkha??user Verlag.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27280642','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27280642"><span id="translatedtitle">Photonic Torque Microscopy of the <span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span> Force Field for Optically Trapped Silicon Nanowires.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Irrera, Alessia; Magazzù, Alessandro; Artoni, Pietro; Simpson, Stephen H; Hanna, Simon; Jones, Philip H; Priolo, Francesco; Gucciardi, Pietro Giuseppe; Maragò, Onofrio M</p> <p>2016-07-13</p> <p>We measure, by photonic torque microscopy, the <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> rotational motion arising from the transverse components of the radiation pressure on optically trapped, ultrathin silicon nanowires. Unlike spherical particles, we find that <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effects have a significant influence on the nanowire dynamics in the trap. We show that the extreme shape of the trapped nanowires yields a transverse component of the radiation pressure that results in an orbital rotation of the nanowire about the trap axis. We study the resulting motion as a function of optical power and nanowire length, discussing its size-scaling behavior. These shape-dependent <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effects have implications for optical force calibration and optomechanics with levitated nonspherical particles.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMP....57h2701Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMP....57h2701Z"><span id="translatedtitle">Noether theorem for nonholonomic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> mechanical systems in phase space on time scales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zu, Qi-hang; Zhu, Jian-qing</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>The paper focuses on studying the Noether theorem for nonholonomic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> mechanical systems in phase space on time scales. First, the Hamilton equations of nonholonomic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems on time scales are established, which is based on the Lagrange equations for nonholonomic systems on time scales. Then, based upon the quasi-invariance of Hamilton action of systems under the infinitesimal transformations with respect to the time and generalized coordinate on time scale, the Noether identity and the conserved quantity of nonholonomic <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems on time scales are obtained. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate the application of the results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Tectp.682..147V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016Tectp.682..147V"><span id="translatedtitle">Stress release <span class="hlt">model</span> and proxy measures of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> size. Application to Italian seismogenic sources</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Varini, Elisa; Rotondi, Renata; Basili, Roberto; Barba, Salvatore</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>This study presents a series of self-correcting <span class="hlt">models</span> that are obtained by integrating information about seismicity and fault sources in Italy. Four versions of the stress release <span class="hlt">model</span> are analyzed, in which the evolution of the system over time is represented by the level of strain, moment, seismic energy, or energy scaled by the moment. We carry out the analysis on a regional basis by subdividing the study area into eight tectonically coherent regions. In each region, we reconstruct the seismic history and statistically evaluate the completeness of the resulting seismic catalog. Following the Bayesian paradigm, we apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain parameter estimates and a measure of their uncertainty expressed by the simulated posterior distribution. The comparison of the four <span class="hlt">models</span> through the Bayes factor and an information criterion provides evidence (to different degrees depending on the region) in favor of the stress release <span class="hlt">model</span> based on the energy and the scaled energy. Therefore, among the quantities considered, this turns out to be the measure of the size of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to use in stress release <span class="hlt">models</span>. At any instant, the time to the next event turns out to follow a Gompertz distribution, with a shape parameter that depends on time through the value of the conditional intensity at that instant. In light of this result, the issue of forecasting is tackled through both retrospective and prospective approaches. Retrospectively, the forecasting procedure is carried out on the occurrence times of the events recorded in each region, to determine whether the stress release <span class="hlt">model</span> reproduces the observations used in the estimation procedure. Prospectively, the estimates of the time to the next event are compared with the dates of the <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred after the end of the learning catalog, in the 2003-2012 decade.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3882L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3882L"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysis of crustal deformation and the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential in Taiwan by block <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and geodetic observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lee, Chiou-Hsien; Chang, Wu-Lung</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Taiwan locates on the boundary between the Philippline Sea plate and the passive continental margin of the Eurasian plate, where is one of the active seismogenic region in the world. We characterize the kinematics of modern crustal deformation in Taiwan and evaluate the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> potential for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by computing tectonic block motions and fault slip rates of the active faults from GPS observations and geologic slip rate constraints. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> slip rates are reconciled with the geologic rates constrained by geologic slip rates. Attempt to discuss the regional characters, we separate Taiwan into five sub-regions exhibit distinct tectonic behavior, which are southwestern, central, northern, eastern Taiwan and the Central Range. In southwestern Taiwan with an obvious southwestward extrusion, we can separate this area into two major domains from our distribution of principal strain rates of each block. One is the deforming domain with larger strain rates about 1.1 to 1.2 μstrain/yr and majorly clockwise rotation rates, another is the quasi-rigid block domain with opposite effect. This is coincided with previous geodetic analysis study. Central Taiwan is characterized by the clockwise block rotation and slip deficit estimated about 3 mm/yr. The higher slip rates estimated by 10 to 20 mm/yr are located in the foothills region of central and southwestern Taiwan. In northern Taiwan, the fault slip rates are relatively lower because of the gradually weak plate motion. Because of the full collision of plate motion, the long-term slip rates of Longitudinal Valley region are as high as 50 mm/yr. The postseismic relaxation of the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and of the 2010 Mw 6.4 Jiashian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> may be responsible for these faults with high slip rates. In the southern part of the Central Range, there is a significant extension besides the plate convergence. The principal strain rates of the blocks within this region are estimated about 0.4 to 0.7 μstrain/yr.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41B2452C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41B2452C"><span id="translatedtitle">Using an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Simulator to <span class="hlt">Model</span> Tremor Along a Strike Slip Fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cochran, E. S.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Kroll, K.; Harrington, R. M.; Dieterich, J. H.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We employ the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulator, RSQSim, to investigate the conditions under which tremor occurs in the transition zone of the San Andreas fault. RSQSim is a computationally efficient method that uses rate- and state- dependent friction to simulate a wide range of event sizes for long time histories of slip [Dieterich and Richards-Dinger, 2010; Richards-Dinger and Dieterich, 2012]. RSQSim has been previously used to investigate slow slip events in Cascadia [Colella et al., 2011; 2012]. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>, tremor, slow slip, and creep occurrence are primarily controlled by the rate and state constants a and b and slip speed. We will report the preliminary results of using RSQSim to vary fault frictional properties in order to better understand rupture dynamics in the transition zone using observed characteristics of tremor along the San Andreas fault. Recent studies of tremor along the San Andreas fault provide information on tremor characteristics including precise locations, peak amplitudes, duration of tremor episodes, and tremor migration. We use these observations to constrain numerical simulations that examine the slip conditions in the transition zone of the San Andreas Fault. Here, we use the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> simulator, RSQSim, to conduct multi-event simulations of tremor for a strike slip fault <span class="hlt">modeled</span> on Cholame section of the San Andreas fault. Tremor was first observed on the San Andreas fault near Cholame, California near the southern edge of the 2004 Parkfield rupture [Nadeau and Dolenc, 2005]. Since then, tremor has been observed across a 150 km section of the San Andreas with depths between 16-28 km and peak amplitudes that vary by a factor of 7 [Shelly and Hardebeck, 2010]. Tremor episodes, comprised of multiple low frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (LFEs), tend to be relatively short, lasting tens of seconds to as long as 1-2 hours [Horstmann et al., in review, 2013]; tremor occurs regularly with some tremor observed almost daily [Shelly and Hardebeck, 2010; Horstmann</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013SPIE.8892E..0GT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013SPIE.8892E..0GT"><span id="translatedtitle">A comprehensive analysis of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage patterns using high dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> representation feature selection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Taşkin Kaya, Gülşen</p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>Recently, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage assessment using satellite images has been a very popular ongoing research direction. Especially with the availability of very high resolution (VHR) satellite images, a quite detailed damage map based on building scale has been produced, and various studies have also been conducted in the literature. As the spatial resolution of satellite images increases, distinguishability of damage patterns becomes more cruel especially in case of using only the spectral information during classification. In order to overcome this difficulty, textural information needs to be involved to the classification to improve the visual quality and reliability of damage map. There are many kinds of textural information which can be derived from VHR satellite images depending on the algorithm used. However, extraction of textural information and evaluation of them have been generally a time consuming process especially for the large areas affected from the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> due to the size of VHR image. Therefore, in order to provide a quick damage map, the most useful features describing damage patterns needs to be known in advance as well as the redundant features. In this study, a very high resolution satellite image after Iran, Bam <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was used to identify the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage. Not only the spectral information, textural information was also used during the classification. For textural information, second order Haralick features were extracted from the panchromatic image for the area of interest using gray level co-occurrence matrix with different size of windows and directions. In addition to using spatial features in classification, the most useful features representing the damage characteristic were selected with a novel feature selection method based on high dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> representation (HDMR) giving sensitivity of each feature during classification. The method called HDMR was recently proposed as an efficient tool to capture the input</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10163876','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10163876"><span id="translatedtitle">Heterogeneous slip and rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> of the San Andreas fault zone based upon three-dimensional <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> tomography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Foxall, William</p> <p>1992-11-01</p> <p>Crystal fault zones exhibit spatially heterogeneous slip behavior at all scales, slip being partitioned between stable frictional sliding, or fault creep, and unstable <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture. An understanding the mechanisms underlying slip segmentation is fundamental to research into fault dynamics and the physics of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> generation. This thesis investigates the influence that large-scale along-strike heterogeneity in fault zone lithology has on slip segmentation. Large-scale transitions from the stable block sliding of the Central 4D Creeping Section of the San Andreas, fault to the locked 1906 and 1857 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> segments takes place along the Loma Prieta and Parkfield sections of the fault, respectively, the transitions being accomplished in part by the generation of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the magnitude range 6 (Parkfield) to 7 (Loma Prieta). Information on sub-surface lithology interpreted from the Loma Prieta and Parkfield three-dimensional crustal velocity <span class="hlt">models</span> computed by Michelini (1991) is integrated with information on slip behavior provided by the distributions of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> located using, the three-dimensional <span class="hlt">models</span> and by surface creep data to study the relationships between large-scale lithological heterogeneity and slip segmentation along these two sections of the fault zone.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813184C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813184C"><span id="translatedtitle">Export of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-triggered landslides in active mountain ranges: insights from 2D morphodynamic <span class="hlt">modelling</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Croissant, Thomas; Lague, Dimitri; Davy, Philippe; Steer, Philippe</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>In active mountain ranges, large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw > 5-6) trigger numerous landslides that impact river dynamics. These landslides bring local and sudden sediment piles that will be eroded and transported along the river network causing downstream changes in river geometry, transport capacity and erosion efficiency. The progressive removal of landslide materials has implications for downstream hazards management and also for understanding landscape dynamics at the timescale of the seismic cycle. The export time of landslide-derived sediments after large-magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> has been studied from suspended load measurements but a full understanding of the total process, including the coupling between sediment transfer and channel geometry change, still remains an issue. Note that the transport of small sediment pulses has been studied in the context of river restoration, but the magnitude of sediment pulses generated by landslides may make the problem different. Here, we study the export of large volumes (>106 m3) of sediments with the 2D hydro-morphodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span>, Eros. This <span class="hlt">model</span> uses a new hydrodynamic module that resolves a reduced form of the Saint-Venant equations with a particle method. It is coupled with a sediment transport and lateral and vertical erosion <span class="hlt">model</span>. Eros accounts for the complex retroactions between sediment transport and fluvial geometry, with a stochastic description of the floods experienced by the river. Moreover, it is able to reproduce several features deemed necessary to study the evacuation of large sediment pulses, such as river regime modification (single-thread to multi-thread), river avulsion and aggradation, floods and bank erosion. Using a synthetic and simple topography we first present how granulometry, landslide volume and geometry, channel slope and flood frequency influence 1) the dominance of pulse advection vs. diffusion during its evacuation, 2) the pulse export time and 3) the remaining volume of sediment in the catchment</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999GeoJI.139..283H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999GeoJI.139..283H"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> coseismic displacements during the 1997 Umbria-Marche <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (central Italy)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hunstad, Ingrid; Anzidei, Marco; Cocco, Massimo; Baldi, Paolo; Galvani, Alessandro; Pesci, Arianna</p> <p>1999-11-01</p> <p>We propose a dislocation <span class="hlt">model</span> for the two normal faulting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that struck the central Apennines (Umbria-Marche, Italy) on 1997 September 26 at 00:33 (Mw 5.7) and 09:40 GMT (Mw 6.0). We fit coseismic horizontal and vertical displacements resulting from GPS measurements at several monuments of the IGMI (Istituto Geografico Militare Italiano) by means of a dislocation <span class="hlt">model</span> in an elastic, homogeneous, isotropic half-space. Our best-fitting <span class="hlt">model</span> consists of two normal faults whose mechanisms and seismic moments have been taken from CMT solutions; it is consistent with other seismological and geophysical observations. The first fault, which is 6 km long and 7 km wide, ruptured during the 00:33 event with a unilateral rupture towards the SE and an average slip of 27 cm. The second fault is 12 km long and 10 km wide, and ruptured during the 09:40 event with a nearly unilateral rupture towards the NW. Slip distribution on this second fault is non-uniform and is concentrated in its SE portion (maximum slip is 65 cm), where rupture initiated. The 00:33 fault is deeper than the 09:40 one: the top of the first rupture is deeper than 1.7 km the top of the second is 0.6 km deep. In order to interpret the observed epicentral subsidence we have also considered the contributions of two further moderate-magnitude <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred on 1997 October 3 (Mw 5.2) and 6 (Mw 5.4), immediately before the GPS survey, and were located very close to the 09:40 event of September 26. We compare the pattern of vertical displacements resulting from our forward <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of GPS data with that derived from SAR interferograms: the fit to SAR data is very good, confirming the reliability of the proposed dislocation <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014806','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70014806"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> of the Holocene.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Schwartz, D.P.</p> <p>1987-01-01</p> <p>Areas in which significant new data and insights have been obtained are: 1) fault slip rates; 2) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence <span class="hlt">models</span>; 3) fault segmentation; 4) dating past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; 5) paleoseismicity in the E and central US; 6) folds and <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, and 7) future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> behavior. Summarizes important trends in each of these research areas based on information published between June 1982 and June 1986 and preprints of papers in press. The bibliography for this period contains mainly referred publications in journals and books.-from Author</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.G31B0704M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.G31B0704M"><span id="translatedtitle">Block <span class="hlt">model</span> of western US kinematics from inversion of geodetic, fault slip, and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McCaffrey, R.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>The active deformation of the southwestern US (30° to 41° N) is represented by a finite number of rotating, elastic spherical caps. Horizontal GPS velocities (1583), fault slip rates (94), and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip vectors (116) are inverted for block angular velocities, locking on block-bounding faults, and the rotation of individual GPS velocity fields relative to North America. GPS velocities are <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as a combination of rigid block rotations and elastic strain rates resulting from interactions of adjacent blocks across bounding faults. The resulting Pacific - North America pole is indistinguishable from that of Beavan et al. (2001) and satisfies spreading in the Gulf of California and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip vectors in addition to GPS. The largest blocks, the Sierra Nevada - Great Valley and the eastern Basin and Range, show internal strain rates, after removing the elastic component, of only a few nanostrain/a, demonstrating long term approximately rigid behavior. Most fault slip data are satisfied except that the San Jacinto fault appears to be significantly faster than inferred from geology while the Coachella and San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas fault are slower, suggesting the San Andreas system is straightening out in Southern California. Vertical axis rotation rates for most blocks are clockwise and in magnitude more like the Pacific than North America. One exception is the eastern Basin and Range (242° E to 248° E) which rotates slowly anticlockwise about a pole offshore Baja.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7202300','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7202300"><span id="translatedtitle">Thrust-type subduction-zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and seamount asperites: A physical <span class="hlt">model</span> for seismic rupture</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Cloos, M. )</p> <p>1992-07-01</p> <p>A thrust-type subduction-zone <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of M{sub W} 7.6 ruptures an area of {approximately}6,000 km{sup 2}, has a seismic slip of {approximately}1 m, and is nucleated by the rupture of an asperity {approximately}25km across. A <span class="hlt">model</span> for thrust-type subduction-zone seismicity is proposed in which basaltic seamounts jammed against the base of the overriding plate act as strong asperities that rupture by stick-slip faulting. A M{sub W} 7.6 event would correspond to the near-basal rupture of a {approximately}2-km-tall seamount. The base of the seamount is surrounded by a low shear-strength layer composed of subducting sediment that also deforms between seismic events by distributed strain (viscous flow). Planar faults form in this layer as the seismic rupture propagates out of the seamount at speeds of kilometers per second. The faults in the shear zone are disrupted after the event by aseismic, slow viscous flow of the subducting sediment layer. Consequently, the extent of fault rupture varies for different <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> nucleated at the same seamount asperity because new fault surfaces form in the surrounding subducting sediment layer during each fast seismic rupture.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70018333','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70018333"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> for episodic flow of high-pressure water in fault zones before <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Byerlee, J.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>In this <span class="hlt">model</span> for the evolution of large crustal faults, water originally from the country rock saturates the porous and permeable fault zone. During shearing, the fault zone compacts and water flows back into the country rock, but the flow is arrested by silicate deposition that forms low permeability seals. The fluid will be confined to seal-bounded fluid compartments of various sizes and porosity that are not hydraulically connected with each other. When the seal between two compartments is ruptured, an electrical streaming potential will be generated by the sudden movement of fluid from the high-pressure compartment to the low-pressure compartment. During an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> the width of the fault zone will increase by failure of the geometric irregularities on the fault. This newly created, porous and permeable, wider fault zone will fill with water, and the process described above will be repeated. Thus, the process is episodic with the water moving in and out of the fault zone, and each large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> should be preceded by an electrical and/or magnetic signal. -from Author</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8273M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8273M"><span id="translatedtitle">Sensitivity of the coastal tsunami simulation to the complexity of the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Monnier, Angélique; Loevenbruck, Anne; Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki event, whether <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> or tsunami, is exceptionally well documented. A wide range of onshore and offshore data has been recorded from seismic, geodetic, ocean-bottom pressure and sea level sensors. Along with these numerous observations, advance in inversion technique and computing facilities have led to many source studies. Rupture parameters inversion such as slip distribution and rupture history permit to estimate the complex coseismic seafloor deformation. From the numerous published seismic source studies, the most relevant coseismic source <span class="hlt">models</span> are tested. The comparison of the predicted signals generated using both static and cinematic ruptures to the offshore and coastal measurements help determine which source <span class="hlt">model</span> should be used to obtain the more consistent coastal tsunami simulations. This work is funded by the TANDEM project, reference ANR-11-RSNR-0023-01 of the French Programme Investissements d'Avenir (PIA 2014-2018).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820002756','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820002756"><span id="translatedtitle">A multilayer <span class="hlt">model</span> of time dependent deformation following an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on a strike-slip fault</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cohen, S. C.</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>A multilayer <span class="hlt">model</span> of the Earth to calculate finite element of time dependent deformation and stress following an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on a strike slip fault is discussed. The <span class="hlt">model</span> involves shear properties of an elastic upper lithosphere, a standard viscoelastic linear solid lower lithosphere, a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere and an elastic mesosphere. Systematic variations of fault and layer depths and comparisons with simpler elastic lithosphere over viscoelastic asthenosphere calculations are analyzed. Both the creep of the lower lithosphere and astenosphere contribute to the postseismic deformation. The magnitude of the deformation is enhanced by a short distance between the bottom of the fault (slip zone) and the top of the creep region but is less sensitive to the thickness of the creeping layer. Postseismic restressing is increased as the lower lithosphere becomes more viscoelastic, but the tendency for the width of the restressed zone to growth with time is retarded.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH22B..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH22B..02S"><span id="translatedtitle">Defeating <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stein, R. S.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span>, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or <span class="hlt">models</span> raise awareness; instead, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S52E0689B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S52E0689B"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">Model</span> Of 1999 November 12 Duzce, Turkey <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Using Empirical Green's Function Method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Birgoren, G.; Miyake, H.; Irikura, K.</p> <p>2001-12-01</p> <p>On 12 November 1999, an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of moment magnitude 7.1, Io=X (MSK) occurred on Duzce Fault, in the eastern part of the Marmara Region just 3 months after Kocaeli (Mw:7.4) <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>. The strong motion networks deployed by several national and international institutes supplied us remarkable data to form the source <span class="hlt">model</span> of this particular event. We examined the source <span class="hlt">model</span> of Duzce event using 3 strong motion data, taken place in eastern and western side of the fault rupture within the radius of 65 km. We performed the simulation by the method of Irikura (1986) which essentially uses the small events as empirical Green's function and sums them up to follow the omega-squared scaling law. The best source <span class="hlt">model</span> was decided by fitting synthetic acceleration, velocity and displacement traces to observed waveforms. Since there is no information about the mechanism of the element event used as green's function, for initial <span class="hlt">model</span>, it is assumed that the source mechanism of the main and element events are the same. Even though the length of rupture area was calculated as approximately 20km by 40 km based on surface rupture observation as well as aftershock distribution, the strong motion generation area might be relatively smaller compared to the previous estimations. The size of the asperity was calculated as about 8km by 13km. The rupture started at the western bottom of the asperity and propagated radially from the hypocenter. Regarding the S-P time calculation of the Bolu (BLU) Station data, the possibility of existence of super shear velocity in eastern side of the fault were suggested by Bouchon et.al. (2001). We also take into consideration of this phenomenon during the simulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSeis.tmp...54T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JSeis.tmp...54T"><span id="translatedtitle">Space-time <span class="hlt">model</span> for migration of weak <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trofimenko, S. V.; Bykov, V. G.; Merkulova, T. V.</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>In this paper, we aimed to investigate the statistical distributions of shallow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with 2 ≤ M ≤ 4, located in 13 rectangular areas (clusters) bounded by 120°E and 144°E along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate. As a result of our study, the displacement of seismicity maxima has been determined and three recurrent spatial cycles have been observed. The clusters with similar distribution of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are suggested to alternate being equally spaced at 7.26° (360-420 km). A comparison of investigation results on the structure of seismicity in various segments of the Amurian microplate reveals the identity between the alternation pattern observed for meridional zones of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and a distinguished spatial period. The displacement vector for seismicity in the annual cycles is determined, and the correspondence between its E-W direction and the displacement of the fronts of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is established. The elaborated <span class="hlt">model</span> of seismic and deformation processes is considered, in which subsequent activation of clusters of weak <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (2 ≤ M ≤ 4), tending to extend from the Japanese-Sakhalin island arc to the eastern closure of the Baikal rift zone, is initiated by the displacement of the strain wave front.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27300821','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27300821"><span id="translatedtitle">Scaling laws in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence: Disorder, viscosity, and finite size effects in Olami-Feder-Christensen <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Landes, François P; Lippiello, E</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The relation between seismic moment and fractured area is crucial to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard analysis. Experimental catalogs show multiple scaling behaviors, with some controversy concerning the exponent value in the large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> regime. Here, we show that the original Olami, Feder, and Christensen <span class="hlt">model</span> does not capture experimental findings. Taking into account heterogeneous friction, the viscoelastic nature of faults, together with finite size effects, we are able to reproduce the different scaling regimes of field observations. We provide an explanation for the origin of the two crossovers between scaling regimes, which are shown to be controlled both by the geometry and the bulk dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAESc.133...56Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAESc.133...56Y"><span id="translatedtitle">Rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> of Mw 7.8 2015 Gorkha, Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Constraints from GPS measurements of coseismic offsets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yadav, Rajeev Kumar; Roy, P. N. S.; Gupta, Sandeep Kumar; Khan, P. K.; Catherine, J. K.; Prajapati, Sanjay K.; Kumar, Amit; Puviarasan, N.; Bhu, Harsh; Devachandra, M.; Malik, Javed; Kundu, Bhaskar; Debbarma, Chandrani; Gahalaut, V. K.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We estimate coseismic offsets at 20 sites in India due to the 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal (Mw 7.8) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Only four sites in the Indian region, immediately to the south of the rupture, showed discernible coseismic horizontal offsets ranging between 3 and 7 mm toward north. We invert these offsets along with 13 other offsets at GPS sites in Nepal and 33 offsets at sites in China, for the estimation of slip distribution on the causative rupture. We assume that rupture occurred on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). In our estimated slip <span class="hlt">model</span>, high slip reaching ∼5 m occurred east of the mainshock epicenter, and the slip on rupture terminated close to the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). Thus the rupture for this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> remained blind, increasing the potential for future <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the shallow, updip unruptured part of the MHT.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21072436','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21072436"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysis of self-organized criticality in the Olami-Feder-Christensen <span class="hlt">model</span> and in real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Caruso, F.; Vinciguerra, S.</p> <p>2007-05-15</p> <p>We perform an analysis on the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen <span class="hlt">model</span> on a small world topology considering avalanche size differences. We show that when criticality appears, the probability density functions (PDFs) for the avalanche size differences at different times have fat tails with a q-Gaussian shape. This behavior does not depend on the time interval adopted and is found also when considering energy differences between real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Such a result can be analytically understood if the sizes (released energies) of the avalanches (<span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>) have no correlations. Our findings support the hypothesis that a self-organized criticality mechanism with long-range interactions is at the origin of seismic events and indicate that it is not possible to predict the magnitude of the next <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> knowing those of the previous ones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/WCEE2012_3240.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www.iitk.ac.in/nicee/wcee/article/WCEE2012_3240.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> initiative</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>In order to quantify <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT........78S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010PhDT........78S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> optical forces and Brownian vortexes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sun, Bo</p> <p></p> <p>Optical manipulation using optical tweezers has been widely adopted in physics, chemical engineering and biology. While most applications and fundamental studies of optical trapping have focused on optical forces resulting from intensity gradients, we have also explored the role of radiation pressure, which is directed by phase gradients in beams of light. Interestingly, radiation pressure turns out to be a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> force and drives trapped objects out of thermodynamic equilibrium with their surrounding media. We have demonstrated the resulting nonequilibrium effects experimentally by tracking the thermally driven motions of optically trapped colloidal spheres using holographic video microscopy. Rather than undergoing equilibrium thermal fluctuations, as has been assumed for more than a quarter century, a sphere in an optical tweezer enters into a stochastic steady-state characterized by closed loops in its probability current density. These toroidal vortexes constitute a bias in the particle's otherwise random thermal fluctuations arising at least indirectly from a solenoidal component in the optical force. This surprising effect is a particular manifestation of a more general class of noise-driven machines that we call Brownian vortexes. This previously unrecognized class of stochastic heat engines operates on qualitatively different principles from such extensively studied nonequilibrium systems as thermal ratchets and Brownian motors. Among its interesting properties, a Brownian vortex can reverse its direction with changes in temperature or equivalent control parameters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ISPArXL15..509M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ISPArXL15..509M"><span id="translatedtitle">a Gis-Based <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Post-<span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Personalized Route Planning Using the Integration of Evolutionary Algorithm and Owa</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Moradi, M.; Delavar, M. R.; Moradi, A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Being one of the natural disasters, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can seriously damage buildings, urban facilities and cause road blockage. Post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> route planning is problem that has been addressed in frequent researches. The main aim of this research is to present a route planning <span class="hlt">model</span> for after <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. It is assumed in this research that no damage data is available. The presented <span class="hlt">model</span> tries to find the optimum route based on a number of contributing factors which mainly indicate the length, width and safety of the road. The safety of the road is represented by a number of criteria such as distance to faults, percentage of non-standard buildings and percentage of high buildings around the route. An integration of genetic algorithm and ordered weighted averaging operator is employed in the <span class="hlt">model</span>. The former searches the problem space among all alternatives, while the latter aggregates the scores of road segments to compute an overall score for each alternative. Ordered weighted averaging operator enables the users of the system to evaluate the alternative routes based on their decision strategy. Based on the proposed <span class="hlt">model</span>, an optimistic user tries to find the shortest path between the two points, whereas a pessimistic user tends to pay more attention to safety parameters even if it enforces a longer route. The results depicts that decision strategy can considerably alter the optimum route. Moreover, post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> route planning is a function of not only the length of the route but also the probability of the road blockage.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..581J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..581J"><span id="translatedtitle">Calibration of the landsliding numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> SLIPOS and prediction of the seismically induced erosion for several large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jeandet, Louise; Lague, Dimitri; Steer, Philippe; Davy, Philippe; Quigley, Mark</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Coseismic landsliding is an important contributor to the long-term erosion of mountain belts. But if the scaling between <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> magnitude and volume of sediments eroded is well known, the understanding of geomorphic consequences as divide migration or valley infilling still poorly understood. Then, the prediction of the location of landslides sources and deposits is a challenging issue. To progress in this topic, algorithms that resolves correctly the interaction between landsliding and ground shaking are needed. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) have been shown to control at first order the landslide density. But it can trigger landslides by two mechanisms: the direct effect of seismic acceleration on forces balance, and a transient decrease in hillslope strength parameters. The relative importance of both effects on slope stability is not well understood. We use SLIPOS, an algorithm of bedrock landsliding based on a simple stability analysis applied at local scale. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is capable to reproduce the Area/Volume scaling and area distribution of natural landslides. We aim to include the effects of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in SLIPOS by simulating the PGA effect via a spatially variable cohesion decrease. We run the <span class="hlt">model</span> (i) on the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (1999) to quantitatively test the accuracy of the predictions and (ii) on <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> scenarios (Mw 6.5 to 8) on the New-Zealand Alpine fault to infer the volume of landslides associated with large events. For the Chi-Chi <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we predict the observed total landslides area within a factor of 2. Moreover, we show with the New-Zealand fault case that the simulation of ground acceleration by cohesion decrease lead to a realistic scaling between the volume of sediments and the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoJI.192.1217A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoJI.192.1217A"><span id="translatedtitle">Observations and stochastic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of strong ground motions for the 2011 October 23 Mw 7.1 Van, Turkey, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Akinci, Aybige; Antonioli, Andrea</p> <p>2013-03-01</p> <p>The 2011 October 23 Van <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred at 13:41 local time in Eastern Turkey with an epicentre at 43.36oE, 38.76oN (Kandilli Observatory <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Research Institute (KOERI)), 16 km north-northeast of the city of Van, killing around 604 people and leaving thousands homeless. This work presents an overview of the main features of the seismic ground shaking during the Van <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We analyse the ground motion characteristics of the mainshock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations (SA, 5 per cent of critical damping). In order to understand the characteristics of the ground motions induced by the mainshock, we also study the site response of the strong motion stations that recorded the seismic sequence. The lack of seismic recordings in this area imposes major constraints on the computation of reliable seismic hazard estimates for sites in this part of the country. Towards this aim, we have used a stochastic method to generate high frequency ground motion synthetics for the Mw 7.1 Van 2011 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The source mechanism of the Van event and regional wave propagation parameters are constrained from the available and previous studies. The selected <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters are then validated against recordings. We also computed the residuals for the ground motion parameters in terms of PGA and PGV at each station and the <span class="hlt">model</span> parameter bias by averaging the residuals over all the stations. The attenuation of the simulated ground motion parameters is compared with recent global and regional ground motion prediction equations. Finally, since it has been debated whether the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of November 9 was an aftershock of the October 23 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we examine whether static variation of Coulomb stress could contribute to the observed aftershock triggering during the 2011 Van Lake sequence. Comparison with empirical ground motion prediction illustrated that the observed PGA data decay faster than the global</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..240G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18..240G"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> for the evaluation of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> effects on a magmatic system.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Garg, Deepak; Longo, Antonella; Papale, Paolo</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>A finite element numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> is presented to compute the effect of an <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> on the dynamics of magma in reservoirs with deformable walls. The magmatic system is hit by a Mw 7.2 <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> (Petrolia/Capo Mendocina 1992) with hypocenter at 15 km diagonal distance. At subsequent times the seismic wave reaches the nearest side of the magmatic system boundary, travels through the magmatic fluid and arrives to the other side of the boundary. The <span class="hlt">modelled</span> physical system consists in the magmatic reservoir with a thin surrounding layer of rocks. Magma is considered as an homogeneous multicomponent multiphase Newtonian mixture with exsolution and dissolution of volatiles (H2O+CO2). The magmatic reservoir is made of a small shallow magma chamber filled with degassed phonolite, connected by a vertical dike to a larger deeper chamber filled with gas-rich shoshonite, in condition of gravitational instability. The coupling between the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and the magmatic system is computed by solving the elastostatic equation for the deformation of the magmatic reservoir walls, along with the conservation equations of mass of components and momentum of the magmatic mixture. The characteristic elastic parameters of rocks are assigned to the computational domain at the boundary of magmatic system. Physically consistent Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions are assigned according to the evolution of the seismic signal. Seismic forced displacements and velocities are set on the part of the boundary which is hit by wave. On the other part of boundary motion is governed by the action of fluid pressure and deviatoric stress forces due to fluid dynamics. The constitutive equations for the magma are solved in a monolithic way by space-time discontinuous-in-time finite element method. To attain additional stability least square and discontinuity capturing operators are included in the formulation. A partitioned algorithm is used to couple the magma and thin layer of rocks. The</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024889','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024889"><span id="translatedtitle">The 1999 Izmit, Turkey, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: A 3D dynamic stress transfer <span class="hlt">model</span> of intraearthquake triggering</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Harris, R.A.; Dolan, J.F.; Hartleb, R.; Day, S.M.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Before the August 1999 Izmit (Kocaeli), Turkey, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, theoretical studies of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptures and geological observations had provided estimates of how far an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> might jump to get to a neighboring fault. Both numerical simulations and geological observations suggested that 5 km might be the upper limit if there were no transfer faults. The Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> appears to have followed these expectations. It did not jump across any step-over wider than 5 km and was instead stopped by a narrower step-over at its eastern end and possibly by a stress shadow caused by a historic large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> at its western end. Our 3D spontaneous rupture simulations of the 1999 Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> provide two new insights: (1) the west- to east-striking fault segments of this part of the North Anatolian fault are oriented so as to be low-stress faults and (2) the easternmost segment involved in the August 1999 rupture may be dipping. An interesting feature of the Izmit <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is that a 5-km-long gap in surface rupture and an adjacent 25° restraining bend in the fault zone did not stop the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The latter observation is a warning that significant fault bends in strike-slip faults may not arrest future <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNH31B1352G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNH31B1352G"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the Middle East (EMME) Project: Active Fault Database for the Middle East Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gülen, L.; Wp2 Team</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the umbrella GEM (Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span>) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). EMME project region includes Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project will use PSHA approach and the existing source <span class="hlt">models</span> will be revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. More importantly the most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones will be its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. A digital active fault map of the Middle East region is under construction in ArcGIS format. We are developing a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. Similar to the WGCEP-2007 and UCERF-2 projects, the EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a “Fault Section Database”. The “Fault Section” concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far over 3,000 Fault Sections have been defined and parameterized for the Middle East region. A separate “Paleo-Sites Database” includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library that includes the pdf files of the relevant papers, reports is also being prepared. Another task of the WP-2 of the EMME project is to prepare</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.G13A1004K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.G13A1004K"><span id="translatedtitle">Identification and Estimation of Postseismic Deformation: Implications for Plate Motion <span class="hlt">Models</span>, <span class="hlt">Models</span> of the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Cycle, and Terrestrial Reference Frame Definition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kedar, S.; Bock, Y.; Moore, A. W.; Argus, D. F.; Fang, P.; Liu, Z.; Haase, J. S.; Su, L.; Owen, S. E.; Goldberg, D.; Squibb, M. B.; Geng, J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Postseismic deformation indicates a viscoelastic response of the lithosphere. It is critical, then, to identify and estimate the extent of postseismic deformation in both space and time, not only for its inherent information on crustal rheology and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> physics, but also since it must considered for plate motion <span class="hlt">models</span> that are derived geodetically from the "steady-state" interseismic velocities, <span class="hlt">models</span> of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle that provide interseismic strain accumulation and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> probability forecasts, as well as terrestrial reference frame definition that is the basis for space geodetic positioning. As part of the Solid Earth Science ESDR System) SESES project under a NASA MEaSUREs grant, JPL and SIO estimate combined daily position time series for over 1800 GNSS stations, both globally and at plate boundaries, independently using the GIPSY and GAMIT software packages, but with a consistent set of a prior epoch-date coordinates and metadata. The longest time series began in 1992, and many of them contain postseismic signals. For example, about 90 of the global GNSS stations out of more than 400 that define the ITRF have experienced one or more major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and 36 have had multiple <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>; as expected, most plate boundary stations have as well. We quantify the spatial (distance from rupture) and temporal (decay time) extent of postseismic deformation. We examine parametric <span class="hlt">models</span> (log, exponential) and a physical <span class="hlt">model</span> (rate- and state-dependent friction) to fit the time series. Using a PCA analysis, we determine whether or not a particular <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can be uniformly fit by a single underlying postseismic process - otherwise we fit individual stations. Then we investigate whether the estimated time series velocities can be directly used as input to plate motion <span class="hlt">models</span>, rather than arbitrarily removing the apparent postseismic portion of a time series and/or eliminating stations closest to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> epicenters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007E%26PSL.256..547K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007E%26PSL.256..547K"><span id="translatedtitle">Geomechanical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the nucleation process of Australia's 1989 M5.6 Newcastle <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Klose, Christian D.</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>Inherent to black-coal mining in New South Wales (Australia) since 1801, the discharge of ground water may have triggered the M5.6 Newcastle <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in 1989. 4-dimensional geomechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> simulations reveal that widespread water removal and coal as deep as a 500 m depth resulted in an unload of the Earth's crust. This unload caused a destabilization process of the pre-existing Newcastle fault in the interior of the crust beneath the Newcastle coal field. In tandem, an increase in shear stress and a decrease in normal stress may have reactivated this reverse fault. Over the course of the last fifty years, elevated levels of lithostatic stress alterations have accelerated. In 1991, based on the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the crust's elastostatic response to the unload, there has been the minimal critical shear stress changes of 0.01 Mega Pascal (0.1 bar) that reached the Newcastle fault at a depth where the 1989 mainshock nucleated. Hence, it can be anticipated that other faults might also be critically stressed in that region for a couple of reasons. First, the size of the area (volume) that is affected by the induced stress changes is larger than the ruptured area of the Newcastle fault. Second, the seismic moment magnitude of the 1989 M5.6 Newcastle <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is associated with only a fraction of mass removal (1 of 55), following McGarr's mass-moment relationship. Lastly, these findings confirm ongoing seismicity in the Newcastle region since the beginning of the 19th century after a dormant period of 10,000 years of no seismicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70056938','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70056938"><span id="translatedtitle">Rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from teleseismic and regional waveforms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hartzell, Stephen; Mendoza, Carlos; Zeng, Yuehua</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We independently invert teleseismic P waveforms and regional crustal phases to examine the finite fault slip <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, Virginia, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Theoretical and empirical Green's functions are used for the teleseismic and regional <span class="hlt">models</span>, respectively. Both solutions show two distinct sources each about 2 km across and separated by 2.5 km. The source at the hypocenter is more localized in the regional <span class="hlt">model</span> leading to a higher peak slip of 130 cm and higher average stress drop of 250 bars compared with 86 cm and 150 bars for the same source in the teleseismic <span class="hlt">model</span>. Both sources are centered at approximately 8 km depth in the regional <span class="hlt">model</span>, largely below the aftershock distribution. In the teleseismic <span class="hlt">model</span>, the sources extend updip to approximately 6 km depth, into the depth range of the aftershocks. The rupture velocity is not well resolved but appears to be near 2.7 km/s.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815247S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815247S"><span id="translatedtitle">Improved geodetic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">modelling</span> through correction of ionospheric disturbances in L-band InSAR data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sudhaus, Henriette; Gomba, Giorgio; Eineder, Michael</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The use of L-band InSAR data for observing the surface displacements caused by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can be very beneficial. The retrieved signal is generally more stable against temporal phase decorrelation with respect to C-band and X-band InSAR data, such that fault movements also in vegetated areas can be observed. Also, due to the longer wavelength, larger displacement gradients that occur close to the ruptures can be measured. A serious draw back of L-band data on the other hand is that it more strongly reacts to heterogeneities in the ionosphere. The spatial variability of the electron content causes spatially long wavelength trends in the interferometric phase, distorts the surface deformation signal therefore impacts on the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source analysis. A well-known example of the long-wavelength distortions are the ALOS-1 InSAR observations of the 2008 Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. To mitigate the effect of ionospheric phase in the geodetic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sources, a common procedure is to remove any obvious linear or quadratic trend in the surface displacement data that may have been caused by ionospheric phase delays. Additionally, remaining trends may be accounted for by including so-called ambiguity (or nuisance) parameters in the <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. The introduced ionospheric distortion, however, is only approximated arbitrarily by such simple ramp functions with the true ionospheric phase screen unknown. As a consequence, either a remaining ionospheric signal may be mistaken for surface displacement or, the other way around, long-wavelength surface displacement may be attributed to ionospheric distortion and is removed. The bias introduced to the source <span class="hlt">modelling</span> results by the assumption of linear or quadratic ionospheric effects is therefore unknown as well. We present a more informed and physics-based correction of the surface displacement data in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">modelling</span> by using a split-spectrum method to estimate the ionospheric phase screen superimposed to the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMIN41D..06D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMIN41D..06D"><span id="translatedtitle">QuakeSim Computational Infrastructure for Integrating DESDynI and UAVSAR Data into <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Donnellan, A.; Rundle, J. B.; Grant Ludwig, L.; McLeod, D.; Pierce, M.; Fox, G.; Al-Ghanmi, R. A.; Parker, J. W.; Granat, R. A.; Lyzenga, G. A.; Ma, Y.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Ji, J.; Wang, J.; Gao, X.; Quakesim Team</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>QuakeSim is a computational infrastructure for studying, <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, and forecasting <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from a system perspective. QuakeSim takes into account the entire <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle of strain accumulation and release, requiring crustal deformation data as a key data source. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide current crustal deformation rates, while paleoseismic data provide long-term fault slip rates and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> history. The QuakeTables federated multimedia database contains spaceborne and UAVSAR InSAR data for the California region as well as paleoseismic fault data from a number of self-consistent datasets, such as the Uniform California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture Forecast (UCERF), California Geological Survey (CGS), and Virtual California. Access to QuakeTables is provided through a web interface and a Web Services based application program interface (API) for data delivery. Data are categorized into self-consistent datasets that can be queried in their original form or a derivation therefrom. QuakeTables provides access to mapping features through a web interface, that provides users with direct access to the QuakeTables federated data. Users can browse, map and navigate the available datasets. QuakeSim applications include crustal deformation <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and pattern analysis. The crustal deformation tools include forward elastic dislocation <span class="hlt">models</span> (DISLOC) and 3D viscoelastic finite element <span class="hlt">models</span> (GeoFEST), and elastic inversions of crustal deformation data (SIMPLEX). The tools support mapping and applications for visualizing results in vector or interfermetric form. Virtual California simulates interacting fault systems. Pattern analysis tools include RDAHMM for identifying state changes in time series data, and RIPI for identifying hotspot locations of increased probabilities for magnitude 5 and above <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The QuakeSim infrastructure automatically posts UAVSAR data to QuakeTables for storage and</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.nicee.org/wcee/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www.nicee.org/wcee/"><span id="translatedtitle">Demand surge following <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Olsen, Anna H.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a <span class="hlt">model</span> for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The <span class="hlt">model</span> showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are the exclusion of insurance coverage for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22570207','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22570207"><span id="translatedtitle">A new efficient formulation of the HLLEM Riemann solver for general conservative and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> hyperbolic systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dumbser, Michael; Balsara, Dinshaw S.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>In this paper a new, simple and universal formulation of the HLLEM Riemann solver (RS) is proposed that works for general conservative and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> systems of hyperbolic equations. For <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> PDE, a path-conservative formulation of the HLLEM RS is presented for the first time in this paper. The HLLEM Riemann solver is built on top of a novel and very robust path-conservative HLL method. It thus naturally inherits the positivity properties and the entropy enforcement of the underlying HLL scheme. However, with just the slight additional cost of evaluating eigenvectors and eigenvalues of intermediate characteristic fields, we can represent linearly degenerate intermediate waves with a minimum of smearing. For conservative systems, our paper provides the easiest and most seamless path for taking a pre-existing HLL RS and quickly and effortlessly converting it to a RS that provides improved results, comparable with those of an HLLC, HLLD, Osher or Roe-type RS. This is done with minimal additional computational complexity, making our variant of the HLLEM RS also a very fast RS that can accurately represent linearly degenerate discontinuities. Our present HLLEM RS also transparently extends these advantages to <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> systems. For shallow water-type systems, the resulting method is proven to be well-balanced. Several test problems are presented for shallow water-type equations and two-phase flow <span class="hlt">models</span>, as well as for gas dynamics with real equation of state, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD & RMHD), and nonlinear elasticity. Since our new formulation accommodates multiple intermediate waves and has a broader applicability than the original HLLEM method, it could alternatively be called the HLLI Riemann solver, where the “I” stands for the intermediate characteristic fields that can be accounted for. -- Highlights: •New simple and general path-conservative formulation of the HLLEM Riemann solver. •Application to general conservative and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S52A..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S52A..06S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of slow slip events and their interaction with large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the subduction interfaces beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shibazaki, B.; Cotton, F.; Matsuzawa, T.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Recent high-resolution geodetic observations have revealed the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) along the Mexican subduction zone. In the Guerrero gap, large SSEs of around Mw 7.5 repeat every 3-4 years (Lowry et al., 2001; Kostoglodov et al., 2003; Radiguet et al., 2012). The 2006 Guerrero slow slip was analyzed in detail (Radiguet et al., 2011): the average velocity of propagation was 0.8 km/day, and the maximum slip velocity was 1.0E-8 m/s. On the other hand, in the Oaxaca region, SSEs of Mw 7.0-7.3 repeat every 1-2 years and last for 3 months (Brudzinski et al., 2007; Correa-Mora et al., 2008). These SSEs in the Mexican subduction zone are categorized as long-term (long-duration) SSEs; however, their recurrence interval is relatively short. It is important to investigate how SSEs in Mexico can be reproduced using a theoretical <span class="hlt">model</span> and determine the difference in friction law parameters when compared to SSEs in other subduction zones. An Mw 7.4 subduction <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred beneath the Oaxaca-Guerrero border on March 20, 2012. The 2012 SSE coincided with this thrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Graham et al., 2012). SSEs in Mexico can trigger large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> because their magnitudes are close to that of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. The interaction between SSEs and large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is an important problem, which needs to be investigated. We <span class="hlt">model</span> SSEs and large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the subduction interfaces beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca. To reproduce SSEs, we use a rate- and state-dependent friction law with a small cut-off velocity for the evolution effect based on the <span class="hlt">model</span> proposed by Shibazaki and Shimamoto (2007). We also consider the 3D plate interface, which dips at a very shallow angle at a horizontal distance of 50-150 km from the trench. We set the unstable zone from a depth of 10 to 20 km. By referring to analytical results, we set a Guerrero SSE zone, which extends to the shallow Guerrero gap. Because the maximum slip velocity is around 1.0E-8 m/s, we set the cut-off velocity</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EP%26S...68...17S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EP%26S...68...17S"><span id="translatedtitle">The source <span class="hlt">model</span> and recurrence interval of Genroku-type Kanto <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> estimated from paleo-shoreline data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sato, Toshinori; Higuchi, Harutaka; Miyauchi, Takahiro; Endo, Kaori; Tsumura, Noriko; Ito, Tanio; Noda, Akemi; Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>In the southern Kanto region of Japan, where the Philippine Sea plate is descending at the Sagami trough, two different types of large interplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have occurred repeatedly. The 1923 (Taisho) and 1703 (Genroku) Kanto <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> characterize the first and second types, respectively. A reliable source <span class="hlt">model</span> has been obtained for the 1923 event from seismological and geodetical data, but not for the 1703 event because we have only historical records and paleo-shoreline data about it. We developed an inversion method to estimate fault slip distribution of interplate repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> from paleo-shoreline data on the idea of crustal deformation cycles associated with subduction-zone <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. By applying the inversion method to the present heights of the Genroku and Holocene marine terraces developed along the coasts of the southern Boso and Miura peninsulas, we estimated the fault slip distribution of the 1703 Genroku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> as follows. The source region extends along the Sagami trough from the Miura peninsula to the offing of the southern Boso peninsula, which covers the southern two thirds of the source region of the 1923 Kanto <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The coseismic slip takes the maximum of 20 m at the southern tip of the Boso peninsula, and the moment magnitude (Mw) is calculated as 8.2. From the interseismic slip-deficit rates at the plate interface obtained by GPS data inversion, assuming that the total slip deficit is compensated by coseismic slip, we can roughly estimate the average recurrence interval as 350 years for large interplate events of any type and 1400 years for the Genroku-type events.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23878524','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23878524"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimation of recurrence interval of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Recurrence interval of large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2008 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release <span class="hlt">model</span> to estimate recurrence interval of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3710655','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3710655"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhang, Shimin</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Recurrence interval of large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2008 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release <span class="hlt">model</span> to estimate recurrence interval of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region. PMID:23878524</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JAfES.117..252A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JAfES.117..252A"><span id="translatedtitle">The intraplate Mw 7 Machaze <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Mozambique: Improved point source <span class="hlt">model</span>, stress drop, and geodynamic implications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Attanayake, Januka; Fonseca, João F. B. D.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The February 22nd 2006 Mw = 7 Machaze <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is one of the largest, if not the largest, <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> reported since 1900 within Continental Africa. This large continental intraplate event has important implications to our understanding of tectonics and strong ground motion prediction locally and in the global context. Thus, accurate estimates of source parameters of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> are important. In this study, we inverted the complete azimuthally distributed high frequency (0.05-2 Hz) P waveform dataset available for a best-fitting point source <span class="hlt">model</span> and obtained stress drop estimates assuming different theoretical rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> from spectral fitting. Our best-fitting point source <span class="hlt">model</span> confirms steep normal faulting, has strike = 173° (309°), dip = 73° (23°), rake = -72° (-132°), and shows a 12%-4% improvement in waveform fit compared to previous <span class="hlt">models</span>, which translates into an error minimization. We attribute this improvement to higher order reverberations near the source region that we took in to account and the excellent azimuthal coverage of the dataset. Preferred stress drop estimates assuming a rupture velocity = 0.9 x shear wave velocity (Vs) are between 11 and 15 MPa though, even higher stress drop estimates are possible for rupture velocities lower than 0.9Vs. The estimated stress drop is significantly higher than the global stress drop average of intraplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, but is consistent with stress drop estimated for some intra-continental <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> elsewhere. The detection of a new active structure that appears to terminate in Machaze, its step-like geometry, and lithospheric strength all favors a hypothesis of stress concentration in the source region, which is likely the cause of this event and the higher than average stress drop.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.G44A..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.G44A..06S"><span id="translatedtitle">A Simple <span class="hlt">Model</span> for the Vertical Crustal Movement Associated with the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Cycle Along the Pacific Coast of Northeast Japan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sagiya, T.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Before the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, rapid subsidence more than 5mm/yr has been observed along the Pacific coast of the Tohoku area by leveling, tide gauges, and GPS (Kato, 1979, Kato and Tsumura, 1979, El-Fiky and Kato, 1999). On the other hand, Stage 5e (~125 ka) marine terraces are widely recognized along the same area, implying the area is uplifting in a long-term. Ikeda (1999) hypothesized that these deformation signals reflect accumulation of elastic strain at the plate interface and there is a possibility of a giant <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> causing a coastal uplift. However, the coastal area subsided as large as 1m during the 2011 main shock. Though we observe significant postseismic uplift, it is not certain if the preseismic as well as coseismic subsidence will be recovered. We construct a simple <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> deformation cycle to interpret the vertical movement along the Pacific coast of northeast Japan. The <span class="hlt">model</span> consists of a 40 km thick elastic lithosphere overlying a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenospher with a viscosity of 10^19 Pa s. Plate boundary is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as two rectangular faults located in the lithosphere and connected each other. As for the kinematic conditions of these faults, we represent the temporal evolution of fault slip as a sum of the steady term and the perturbation term following Savage and Prescott (1978). The first steady term corresponds to the long-term plate subduction, which contributes to long-term geomorphic evolution such as the marine terraces (Hashimoto et al., 2004). The second perturbation term represent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle effects. We evaluate this effect under assumptions that <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurrence is perfectly periodic, plate interface is fully coupled during interseismic periods, and the slip deficit is fully released by <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. If the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> recurrence interval is shorter than the relaxation time of the structure, interseismic movement is in the opposite direction to the coseismic ones and changes almost linearly</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S51A4394L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S51A4394L"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Injection Induced Seismicity with Poro-Elasticity and Time-Dependent <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Nucleation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lu, S.; Segall, P.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The standard approach to <span class="hlt">modeling</span> injection-induced seismicity (IIS) considers Coulomb failure stress changes accounting only for pore-pressure changes, which are solved by the diffusion equation. However, this "diffusion" triggering mechanism is not comprehensive. Lab experiments indicate <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation also depends on stress history. Here we add two effects in <span class="hlt">modeling</span> IIS: 1) poro-elastic coupling between solid stresses and pore-pressure, and 2) time dependent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation under applied stresses. In this <span class="hlt">model</span>, we compute stress and pore-pressure changes due to a point source injecting in a homogeneous, poro-elastic full space (Rudnicki, 1986). The Coulomb stress history is used to compute seismicity rate changes based on the time-dependent nucleation <span class="hlt">model</span> of Dieterich (1994). Our new <span class="hlt">model</span> reveals: 1) poro-elastic coupling breaks the radial symmetry in seismicity, 2) nucleation introduces a characteristic nucleation time ta, which affects the temporal evolution of seismicity rates, and 3) for some fault geometries, the seismicity rate may increase following shut in. For constant injection flux, the log of seismicity rate scales with the change in Coulomb stress at short time, consistent with diffusion profiles. At longer time, the <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts seismicity rates decaying with time, consistent with some observations. The contour shape and decay time are characterized by ta. For finite injection with box-car flux history, seismicity rates plummet near the injector, but may continue for some time at greater distance. Depending on fault orientations, seismicity rates may increase after shut-in due to coupling effects. It has been observed in some cases that the maximum magnitude of induced quakes occurs after shut-in. This may be understood by the fact that the volume of perturbed crust increases with injection time, which influences probability of triggering an event of a given magnitude. Whether coupling effects are important in post shut</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFM.G61B0998W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFM.G61B0998W"><span id="translatedtitle">Realistic Error <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> for InSAR: Determination of Uncertainties in <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Slip Distributions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wright, T. J.; Clarke, P.; Funning, G. J.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>The major source of error in InSAR measurements results from changes in tropospheric water vapour concentrations, creating phase delays that are unrelated to ground motion. These can be distributed over distances of tens of kilometres and, if interpreted as surface deformation, can cause errors in measurement as large as 10 cm. Here we present a simple modified Monte Carlo (MC) method for determining the impact of these errors on the accuracy of <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters derived from InSAR data. In particular, we examine the reliability of InSAR-derived <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> slip distributions. Conventional MC bootstrap methods are often used for determining errors in <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters derived from InSAR data. An ensemble of best-fit parameter estimates is found using different input data sets. Each of these data sets is derived from the original, but has its individual phase measurements randomly perturbed in a normal distribution about their original value using an a priori standard deviation. Errors in <span class="hlt">model</span> parameter estimates are found from the distribution of best-fit solutions to each perturbed data set. For InSAR data, however, conventional MC fails to account for the spatial correlation of atmospheric errors between multiple sampled phase measurements. When the interferogram is sampled densely compared to the wavelength of atmospheric errors, conventional MC can grossly underestimate the errors of <span class="hlt">model</span> parameter estimates. To produce realistic error bars for parameter estimates, the interferogram's variance-covariance matrix (VCM) must first be determined. A practical approach for this is to determine the mean covariance vs distance function (autocorrelation function), either spatially or from the interferogram's power spectrum using the Wiener-Khinchine theorem (e.g. Hanssen, 2001). This must be done using a part of the interferogram away from the deformation, or, where this is not possible, after a first-pass <span class="hlt">model</span> has been removed. Using the covariance vs distance function</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Facts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://medlineplus.gov/">MedlinePlus</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>... May 22, 1960. The earliest reported <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in California was felt in 1769 by the exploring expedition ... by wind or tides. Each year the southern California area has about 10,000 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> . Most of ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EP%26S...66...42A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EP%26S...66...42A"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground motions characterized by a multi-scale heterogeneous <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aochi, Hideo; Ide, Satoshi</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>We have carried out numerical simulations of seismic ground motion radiating from a mega-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> whose rupture process is governed by a multi-scale heterogeneous distribution of fracture energy. The observed complexity of the Mw 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> can be explained by such heterogeneities with fractal patches (size and number), even without introducing any heterogeneity in the stress state. In our <span class="hlt">model</span>, scale dependency in fracture energy (i.e., the slip-weakening distance D c) on patch size is essential. Our results indicate that wave radiation is generally governed by the largest patch at each moment and that the contribution from small patches is minor. We then conducted parametric studies on the frictional parameters of peak ( τ p) and residual ( τ r) friction to produce the case where the effect of the small patches is evident during the progress of the main rupture. We found that heterogeneity in τ r has a greater influence on the ground motions than does heterogeneity in τ p. As such, local heterogeneity in the static stress drop (Δ τ) influences the rupture process more than that in the stress excess (Δ τ excess). The effect of small patches is particularly evident when these are almost geometrically isolated and not simultaneously involved in the rupture of larger patches. In other cases, the wave radiation from small patches is probably hidden by the major contributions from large patches. Small patches may play a role in strong motion generation areas with low τ r (high Δ τ), particularly during slow average rupture propagation. This effect can be identified from the differences in the spatial distributions of peak ground velocities for different frequency ranges.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030620','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030620"><span id="translatedtitle">Long-period effects of the Denali <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on water bodies in the Puget Lowland: Observations and <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Barberopoulou, A.; Qamar, A.; Pratt, T.L.; Steele, W.P.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Analysis of strong-motion instrument recordings in Seattle, Washington, resulting from the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali, Alaska, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> reveals that amplification in the 0.2-to 1.0-Hz frequency band is largely governed by the shallow sediments both inside and outside the sedimentary basins beneath the Puget Lowland. Sites above the deep sedimentary strata show additional seismic-wave amplification in the 0.04- to 0.2-Hz frequency range. Surface waves generated by the Mw 7.9 Denali, Alaska, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 3 November 2002 produced pronounced water waves across Washington state. The largest water waves coincided with the area of largest seismic-wave amplification underlain by the Seattle basin. In the current work, we present reports that show Lakes Union and Washington, both located on the Seattle basin, are susceptible to large water waves generated by large local <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and teleseisms. A simple <span class="hlt">model</span> of a water body is adopted to explain the generation of waves in water basins. This <span class="hlt">model</span> provides reasonable estimates for the water-wave amplitudes in swimming pools during the Denali <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> but appears to underestimate the waves observed in Lake Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.7452W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.7452W"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from inversions of ALOS-2 and GPS data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Kang; Fialko, Yuri</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>We use surface deformation measurements including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data acquired by the ALOS-2 mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to invert for the fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Nepal. Assuming that the ruptured fault connects to the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) fault between 84.34°E and 86.19°E, the best fitting <span class="hlt">model</span> suggests a dip angle of 7°. The moment calculated from the slip <span class="hlt">model</span> is 6.08 × 1020 Nm, corresponding to the moment magnitude of 7.79. The rupture of the 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was dominated by thrust motion that was primarily concentrated in a 150 km long zone 50 to 100 km northward from the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), with maximum slip of ˜ 5.8 m at a depth of ˜8 km. Data thus indicate that the 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a deep part of the seismogenic zone, in contrast to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which had ruptured a shallow part of the adjacent fault segment to the east.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.G21A1008W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.G21A1008W"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha (Nepal) <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> from Inversions of ALOS-2 and GPS Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, K.; Fialko, Y. A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>We use surface deformation measurements including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data acquired by the ALOS-2 mission of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to invert for the fault geometry and coseismic slip distribution of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Nepal. Assuming that the ruptured fault connects to the surface trace of the of Main Frontal Thrust fault (MFT) between 84.34E and 86.19E, the best-fitting <span class="hlt">model</span> suggests a dip angle of 7 degrees. The moment calculated from the slip <span class="hlt">model</span> is 6.17*1020 Nm, corresponding to the moment magnitude of 7.79. The rupture of the 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was dominated by thrust motion that was primarily concentrated in a 150-km long zone 50 to 100 km northward from the surface trace of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT), with maximum slip of ~6 m at a depth of ~ 8 km. Data thus indicate that the 2015 Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured a deep part of the seismogenic zone, in contrast to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, which had ruptured a shallow part of the adjacent fault segment to the East.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7036521','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/7036521"><span id="translatedtitle">Conservative and <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> inhibitors of gastric acid secretion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Ekblad, E.B.M.; Licko, V.</p> <p>1987-09-01</p> <p>Inhibitors of the initial step (H/sub 2/-antagonist) and of the final step (thiocyanate, SCN/sup -/; and nitrite, NO/sub 2//sup -/) were used to study the dynamics of acid secretion in isolated frog gastric mucosa. Tissues were mounted in flow-through chambers, and the acid secretion rate (SR) was recorded on a pH-stat microprocessor. Continuous presence of H/sub 2/-antagonist decreases the SR to a lower steady state, and on removal the SR returns to basal SR, causing a net loss of acid, the <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> effect. The amount of lost acid is a unique function of exposure, thus, independent of the patterns (pulses or steps) of inhibition. In contrast, continuous presence of SCN/sup -/ or NO/sub 2//sup -/ (below 3 mM) results in an undershoot in SR with a return to basal SR, whereas at higher concentrations there is not return. Removal of these inhibitors causes an overshoot in SR with return to basal SR. The rebound acid is equal to acid suppressed by NO/sub 2//sup -/ and low concentration of SCN/sup -/, resulting in no net loss of acid, the conservative effect, whereas at high concentrations of SCN/sup -/ there is an apparent loss of acid. In maximally secreting tissue the overshoot of SR is not observed. However, the acid is not lost, merely delayed. In resting tissue NO/sub 2//sup -/ also merely delays the exit of the acid produced in response to forskolin. The rebound acid is proposed to reside in a sequestered acid pool that is stable for at least 120 min. Results with NO/sub 2//sup -/ and SCN/sup -/ suggest an effect on a saturable exit enzyme, possibly the K/sup +/-H/sup +/-ATPase.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21347429','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21347429"><span id="translatedtitle">Asperity characteristics of the Olami-Feder-Christensen <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kawamura, Hikaru; Yamamoto, Takumi; Kotani, Takeshi; Yoshino, Hajime</p> <p>2010-03-15</p> <p>Properties of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are studied by numerical simulations. The previous study indicated that the <span class="hlt">model</span> exhibited 'asperity'-like phenomena, i.e., the same region ruptures many times near periodically [T. Kotani et al., Phys. Rev. E 77, 010102(R) (2008)]. Such periodic or characteristic features apparently coexist with power-law-like critical features, e.g., the Gutenberg-Richter law observed in the size distribution. In order to clarify the origin and the nature of the asperity-like phenomena, we investigate here the properties of the OFC <span class="hlt">model</span> with emphasis on its stress distribution. It is found that the asperity formation is accompanied by self-organization of the highly concentrated stress state. Such stress organization naturally provides the mechanism underlying our observation that a series of asperity events repeat with a common epicenter site and with a common period solely determined by the transmission parameter of the <span class="hlt">model</span>. Asperity events tend to cluster both in time and in space.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1281.1420K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1281.1420K"><span id="translatedtitle">How Does Krein Signature Determine Veering and Crossing of Eigencurves of <span class="hlt">Non-Conservative</span> Rotating Continua?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kirillov, Oleg N.</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Frequency loci crossing and veering phenomena are closely related to wave propagation and instabilities in fluids and structures. In engineering applications the crossings of the eigencurves are typically observed in gyroscopic or potential systems in the presence of symmetries, such as rotational or spherical one. The examples are perfect solids of revolution that serve for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> turbine wheels, disk and drum brakes, tires, clutches, paper calenders and other rotating machinery. We consider an axi-symmetric flexible rotor perturbed by dissipative, conservative, and <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> positional forces originated at the contact with the anisotropic stator. The Campbell diagram of the unperturbed system is a mesh-like structure in the frequency-speed plane with double eigenfrequencies at the nodes. Computing sensitivities of the doublets we find that at every particular node the unfolding of the mesh into the branches of complex eigenvalues in the first approximation is generically determined by only four 2×2 sub-blocks of the perturbing matrix. Selection of the unstable modes that cause self-excited vibrations in the subcritical speed range, is governed by the exceptional points at the corners of the singular eigenvalue surfaces—`double coffee filter' and `viaduct'—which are sharply associated with the crossings of the unperturbed Campbell diagram with the definite symplectic (Krein) signature. A <span class="hlt">model</span> of a rotating shaft with two degrees of freedom and a continuous <span class="hlt">model</span> of a rotating circular string passing through the eyelet are studied in detail.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950010566&hterms=ASR&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DASR','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950010566&hterms=ASR&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DASR"><span id="translatedtitle">Forecasting <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p></p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>In this video there are scenes of damage from the Northridge <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and interviews with Dr. Andrea Donnelan, Geophysics at JPL, and Dr. Jim Dolan, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> geologist from Cal. Tech. The interviews discuss <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting by tracking changes in the earth's crust using antenna receiving signals from a series of satellites called the Global Positioning System (GPS).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=plate+AND+tectonics+AND+earthquakes&pg=4&id=EJ394238','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=plate+AND+tectonics+AND+earthquakes&pg=4&id=EJ394238"><span id="translatedtitle">Hidden <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Stein, Ross S.; Yeats, Robert S.</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>Points out that large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> can take place not only on faults that cut the earth's surface but also on blind faults under folded terrain. Describes four examples of fold <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Discusses the fold <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using several diagrams and pictures. (YP)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.T42C..07L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.T42C..07L"><span id="translatedtitle">3-D Numerical <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Rupture Sequences of Large Shallow Subduction <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Y.; Rice, J. R.</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>We study the rupture behavior of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on a 3-D shallow subduction fault governed by a rate and state friction law, and loaded by imposed slip at rate Vpl far downdip along the thrust interface. Friction properties are temperature, and hence depth, dependent, so that sliding is stable ( a - b > 0) at depths below about 30 km. To perturb the system into a nonuniform slip mode, if such a solution exists, we introduce small along-strike variations in either the constitutive parameters a and (a - b), or the effective normal stress, or the initial conditions. Our results do show complex, nonuniform slip behavior over the thousands of simulation years. Large events of multiple magnitudes occur at various along-strike locations, with different recurrence intervals, like those of natural interplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In the <span class="hlt">model</span>, a large event usually nucleates in a less well locked gap region (slipping at order of 0.1 to 1 times the plate convergence rate Vpl) between more firmly locked regions (slipping at 10-4 to 10-2 Vpl) which coincide with the rupture zones of previous large events. It then propagates in both the dip and strike directions. Along-strike propagation slows down as the rupture front encounters neighboring locked zones, whose sizes and locking extents affect further propagation. Different propagation speeds at two fronts results in an asymmetric coseismic slip distribution, as is consistent with the slip inversion results of some large subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> [e.g., Chlieh et al., 2003]. Current grid resolution is dictated by limitations of available computers and algorithms, and forces us to use constitutive length scales that are much larger than realistic lab values; that causes nucleation sizes to be in the several kilometers (rather than several meters) range. Thus there is a tentativeness to present conclusions. But with current resolution, we observe that the heterogeneous slip at seismogenic depths (i.e., where a - b < 0 ) is sometimes</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3036/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3036/"><span id="translatedtitle">PAGER--Rapid assessment of an <span class="hlt">earthquake?s</span> impact</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with <span class="hlt">models</span> of economic and fatality losses based on past <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in each country or region of the world. <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S44A..06F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S44A..06F"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the deformations associated with large subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> through the seismic cycle</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fleitout, L.; Trubienko, O.; Garaud, J.; Vigny, C.; Cailletaud, G.; Simons, W. J.; Satirapod, C.; Shestakov, N.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>A 3D finite element code (Zebulon-Zset) is used to <span class="hlt">model</span> deformations through the seismic cycle in the areas surrounding the last three large subduction <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: Sumatra, Japan and Chile. The mesh featuring a broad spherical shell portion with a viscoelastic asthenosphere is refined close to the subduction zones. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is constrained by 6 years of postseismic data in Sumatra area and over a year of data for Japan and Chile plus preseismic data in the three areas. The coseismic displacements on the subduction plane are inverted from the coseismic displacements using the finite element program and provide the initial stresses. The predicted horizontal postseismic displacements depend upon the thicknesses of the elastic plate and of the low viscosity asthenosphere. Non-dimensionalized by the coseismic displacements, they present an almost uniform value between 500km and 1500km from the trench for elastic plates 80km thick. The time evolution of the velocities is function of the creep law (Maxwell, Burger or power-law creep). Moreover, the forward <span class="hlt">models</span> predict a sizable far-field subsidence, also with a spatial distribution which varies with the geometry of the asthenosphere and lithosphere. Slip on the subduction interface does not induce such a subsidence. The observed horizontal velocities, divided by the coseismic displacement, present a similar pattern as function of time and distance from trench for the three areas, indicative of similar lithospheric and asthenospheric thicknesses and asthenospheric viscosity. This pattern cannot be fitted with power-law creep in the asthenosphere but indicates a lithosphere 60 to 90km thick and an asthenosphere of thickness of the order of 100km with a burger rheology represented by a Kelvin-Voigt element with a viscosity of 3.1018Pas and μKelvin=μelastic/3. A second Kelvin-Voigt element with very limited amplitude may explain some characteristics of the short time-scale signal. The postseismic subsidence is</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70019068','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70019068"><span id="translatedtitle">An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> instability <span class="hlt">model</span> based on faults containing high fluid-pressure compartments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Lockner, D.A.; Byerlee, J.D.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p> results of a one-dimensional dynamic Burridge-Knopoff-type <span class="hlt">model</span> to demonstrate various aspects of the fluid-assisted fault instability described above. In the numerical <span class="hlt">model</span>, the fault is represented by a series of blocks and springs, with fault rheology expressed by static and dynamic friction. In addition, the fault surface of each block has associated with it pore pressure, porosity and permeability. All of these variables are allowed to evolve with time, resulting in a wide range of phenomena related to fluid diffusion, dilatancy, compaction and heating. These phenomena include creep events, diffusion-controlled precursors, triggered <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, foreshocks, aftershocks, and multiple <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. While the simulations have limitations inherent to 1-D fault <span class="hlt">models</span>, they demonstrate that the fluid compartment <span class="hlt">model</span> can, in principle, provide the rich assortment of phenomena that have been associated with <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. ?? 1995 Birkha??user Verlag.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S54C..02D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S54C..02D"><span id="translatedtitle">Investigating Different Aspects of Supershear Rupture Speed to Constraint <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Source <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dalguer, L. A.; Gabriel, A. A.; Mena Carbrera, B.; Baumann, C. F.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Since the paper of Andrews (1976) in which the physical conditions to the occurrence of supershear rupture speed has been described in in-plane (mode II) rupture, several <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, mainly large strike-slip faults, show evidence of this phenomenon. Now it is widely accepted this possibility, and several studies describing this phenomenon has been reported in the specialized literature. Those studies of supershear rupture are mainly described into the framework of classical cracks governed by slip-weakening friction. Numerical simulations of dynamic rupture in a heterogeneous field, as expected it is in nature, suggest that localized super-shear rupture speed in strike-slip fault exist at events of all sizes (Mena et al, BSSA 2011, submitted), as well as in dip-slip faults (see Baumann and Dalguer, AGU2011 this session). Inspired by the pioneer study on supershear cracks of Andrews (1976), we have developed in-plane dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> governed by strong velocity weakening, to investigate the development of supershear rupture speed in a diversity of rupture styles: crack-like, pulse-like and combination of both. In addition to the classical supershear crack, we have identified four styles of supershear rupture patterns (Gabriel et al, JGR2011, submitted): 1) Supershear pulse triggered by a primary pulse; 2) supershear crack triggered by a primary pulse; 3) Initially steady state pulse, then very shortly become growing pulse to soon nucleates a bilateral asymmetric rupture crack, that later trigger a supershear rupture at the two new rupture fronts. The two supershear rupture fronts propagating toward the hypocenter suffer a collision at the hypocenter; 4) Growing main rupture pulse followed by a reactivation of a shear crack at the hypocenter, that subsequently triggers a supershear crack. The supershear transition mechanism described by Andrews (1976) operates also for all the listed supershear styles. We aim to characterize all these aspects of supershear</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JCoPh.335..592C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JCoPh.335..592C"><span id="translatedtitle">A new comment on the computation of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> products using Roe-type path conservative schemes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chalons, Christophe; Coquel, Frédéric</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>We are interested in the numerical approximation of the discontinuous solutions of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> hyperbolic systems. We more precisely consider a <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> formulation of the usual gas dynamics equations and show how to slightly modify the so-called Roe-type path-conservative schemes to properly capture the underlying shock discontinuities. Numerical evidences are proposed. The present note follows a first comment on the computation of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> products in [1].</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.S53A..02P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.S53A..02P"><span id="translatedtitle">Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>The Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard <span class="hlt">models</span>. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input <span class="hlt">models</span>. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036311','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036311"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of Hayward fault scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, part II: Simulation of long-period and broadband ground motions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Rodgers, Arthur; Brocher, Thomas M.; Simpson, Robert W.; Dreger, Douglas; Petersson, N. Anders; Larsen, Shawn C.; Ma, Shuo; Jachens, Robert C.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We simulate long-period (T>1.0–2.0 s) and broadband (T>0.1 s) ground motions for 39 scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (Mw 6.7–7.2) involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. For rupture on the Hayward fault, we consider the effects of creep on coseismic slip using two different approaches, both of which reduce the ground motions, compared with neglecting the influence of creep. Nevertheless, the scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> generate strong shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area, with about 50% of the urban area experiencing modified Mercalli intensity VII or greater for the magnitude 7.0 scenario events. Long-period simulations of the 2007 Mw 4.18 Oakland <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the 2007 Mw 5.45 Alum Rock <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> show that the U.S. Geological Survey’s Bay Area Velocity <span class="hlt">Model</span> version 08.3.0 permits simulation of the amplitude and duration of shaking throughout the San Francisco Bay area for Hayward fault <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, with the greatest accuracy in the Santa Clara Valley (San Jose area). The ground motions for the suite of scenarios exhibit a strong sensitivity to the rupture length (or magnitude), hypocenter (or rupture directivity), and slip distribution. The ground motions display a much weaker sensitivity to the rise time and rupture speed. Peak velocities, peak accelerations, and spectral accelerations from the synthetic broadband ground motions are, on average, slightly higher than the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations. We attribute much of this difference to the seismic velocity structure in the San Francisco Bay area and how the NGA <span class="hlt">models</span> account for basin amplification; the NGA relations may underpredict amplification in shallow sedimentary basins. The simulations also suggest that the Spudich and Chiou (2008) directivity corrections to the NGA relations could be improved by increasing the areal extent of rupture directivity with period.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S53B2296S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S53B2296S"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of shallow subsurface <span class="hlt">models</span> with microtremor survey method for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> disaster prevention</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shiraishi, H.; Sasaka, K.; Hamamoto, H.; Hachinohe, S.; Ishiyama, T.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Most of Japanese local governments have been estimating whole picture of quake damage under scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to reduce both casualties and physical damage. Saitama prefectural government, which is adjacent to north of Tokyo, have already made the estimation four times since 1970's. This estimation requires precise mathematical <span class="hlt">models</span> of subsurface structures for calculating ground surface accelerations during massive quakes. The <span class="hlt">models</span> have been updated with every new research. In the early <span class="hlt">models</span>, the shallow layers had been created with applying geological layers of typical 241 types to the whole prefecture. On the other hand, in the current <span class="hlt">models</span>, the shallow layers are created with the results of drilling surveys under public works. This update on the <span class="hlt">models</span> allows us to estimate the quake damage more precisely in every 250m square throughout the prefecture. However even the current <span class="hlt">models</span> are not complete yet. Because the drilling surveys have not been done enough in rural areas compared with urban areas. The <span class="hlt">models</span> of shallow layers in rural areas have therefore been created by interpolating with considering terrains among the locations of drilling surveys. Thereby accuracy of the <span class="hlt">models</span> depends on that of the interpolations. Against this background authors have examined the accuracy of the <span class="hlt">models</span> by making comparisons of phase velocity dispersions between observed velocities through spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) technique and calculated velocities from the <span class="hlt">models</span>. Two types of SPAC arrays with radii of 3m, 30m are deployed and data acquisition time is 30min for each array. The result shows that the subsurface structures of urban areas are well <span class="hlt">modeled</span>, because both the dispersion curves are almost agreed, furthermore amplitude responses of the <span class="hlt">models</span> are in good agreement with the responses determined by the results of microtremor survey method (MSM). In contrast, the subsurface structures of rural areas include cases that have not been <span class="hlt">modeled</span> with</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1550/pp1550f/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1550/pp1550f/"><span id="translatedtitle">Chapter F. The Loma Prieta, California, <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> of October 17, 1989 - Tectonic Processes and <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Simpson, Robert W.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>If there is a single theme that unifies the diverse papers in this chapter, it is the attempt to understand the role of the Loma Prieta <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the context of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> 'machine' in northern California: as the latest event in a long history of shocks in the San Francisco Bay region, as an incremental contributor to the regional deformation pattern, and as a possible harbinger of future large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. One of the surprises generated by the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was the rather large amount of uplift that occurred as a result of the reverse component of slip on the southwest-dipping fault plane. Preearthquake conventional wisdom had been that large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in the region would probably be caused by horizontal, right-lateral, strike-slip motion on vertical fault planes. In retrospect, the high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the elevated marine terraces along the coast should have provided some clues. With the observed ocean retreat and the obvious uplift of the coast near Santa Cruz that accompanied the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, Mother Nature was finally caught in the act. Several investigators quickly saw the connection between the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> uplift and the long-term evolution of the Santa Cruz Mountains and realized that important insights were to be gained by attempting to quantify the process of crustal deformation in terms of Loma Prieta-type increments of northward transport and fault-normal shortening.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70016773','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70016773"><span id="translatedtitle">The 1954 and 1980 Algerian <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>: implications for the characteristic-displacement <span class="hlt">model</span> of fault behavior</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Dewey, J.W.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>Joint epicenter determination of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> that occurred in northern Algeria near Ech Cheliff (named Orleansville in 1954 and El Asnam in 1980) shows that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 9 September 1954 (M=6.5) occurred at nearly the same location as the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 10 October 1980 (M=7.3). The 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks were concentrated close to the boundaries of segment B (nomenclature of Deschamps et al., 1982; King and Yielding, 1984) of the 1980 fault system, which was to experience approximately 8 m of slip in the 1980 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Later aftershocks of the 1954 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> were spread over a broad area, notably in a region north of the 1980 fault system that also experienced many aftershocks to the 1980 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The closeness of the 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks to the 1980 segment B implies that the 1954 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> involved either 1) rupture of segment B proper, or 2) rupture of a distinct fault in the hanging wall of footwall block of segment B. -from Author</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3218C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3218C"><span id="translatedtitle">Short-term <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting based on an epidemic clustering <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Console, Rodolfo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The application of rigorous statistical tools, with the aim of verifying any prediction method, requires a univocal definition of the hypothesis, or the <span class="hlt">model</span>, characterizing the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognized in any circumstance and by any observer. This is mandatory to build up on the old-fashion approach consisting only of the retrospective anecdotic study of past cases. A rigorous definition of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> forecasting hypothesis should lead to the objective identification of particular sub-volumes (usually named alarm volumes) of the total time-space volume within which the probability of occurrence of strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is higher than the usual. The test of a similar hypothesis needs the observation of a sufficient number of past cases upon which a statistical analysis is possible. This analysis should be aimed to determine the rate at which the precursor has been followed (success rate) or not followed (false alarm rate) by the target seismic event, or the rate at which a target event has been preceded (alarm rate) or not preceded (failure rate) by the precursor. The binary table obtained from this kind of analysis leads to the definition of the parameters of the <span class="hlt">model</span> that achieve the maximum number of successes and the minimum number of false alarms for a specific class of precursors. The mathematical tools suitable for this purpose may include the definition of Probability Gain or the R-Score, as well as the application of popular plots such as the Molchan error-diagram and the ROC diagram. Another tool for evaluating the validity of a forecasting method is the concept of the likelihood ratio (also named performance factor) of occurrence and non-occurrence of seismic events under different hypotheses. Whatever is the method chosen for building up a new hypothesis, usually based on retrospective data, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S11A0550P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S11A0550P"><span id="translatedtitle">3-D <span class="hlt">Model</span> of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Sources in the Los Angeles Basin, CA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Plesch, A.; Shaw, J. H.</p> <p>2001-12-01</p> <p>We present a digital 3d <span class="hlt">model</span> of the major, seismogenic fault system in the Los Angeles basin. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is a prototype for a community-based fault characterization effort initiated by the Southern California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Center, Phase 2 (SCEC2). Faults were selected by consensus within the SCEC2 community based on geologic relevance, perceived hazard, and quality of descriptive data. Our first iteration <span class="hlt">model</span> was populated with most of the important faults and with the deformed basement surface, which represents the main velocity interface in the basin. Constraints on fault geometries and positions include surface traces, surficial neotectonic data, seismic reflection profiles, wells, cross-sections, hypocentral locations, and focal mechanisms. Accurate geospatial registration proved essential. We use advanced geometric <span class="hlt">modeling</span> software to integrate these various geophysical and geologic data in a 3d space, and to interpolate and extrapolate the fault surfaces. The <span class="hlt">model</span> describes the geometry of imbricated blind-thrust faults that underlie the northern Los Angeles basin (Puente Hills, Las Cienegas, San Vicente, Elysian Park), as well as the basin bounding structures including the Santa Monica, Sierra Madre, and Cucamonga systems. In the case of the Santa Monica thrust, the 3d construction suggests the presence of a previously undocumented blind extension of this system to the northeast, below the Hollywood fault, and perhaps coinciding in parts with the North Salt Lake fault. The <span class="hlt">model</span> also describes the 3D geometry of the major strike-slip systems in the basin, including the Newport-Inglewood and Whittier faults. The <span class="hlt">model</span> provides a medium to investigate the spatial and temporal interactions of these fault systems based on their precise 3D geometries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRB..118.6165K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRB..118.6165K"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> by nonstationary ETAS <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kumazawa, Takao; Ogata, Yosihiko</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) <span class="hlt">model</span> is extended for application to nonstationary seismic activity, including transient swarm activity or seismicity anomalies, in a seismogenic region. The time-dependent rates of both background seismicity and aftershock productivity in the ETAS <span class="hlt">model</span> are optimally estimated from hypocenter data. These rates can provide quantitative evidence for abrupt or gradual changes in shear stress and/or fault strength due to aseismic transient causes such as triggering by remote <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, slow slips, or fluid intrusions within the region. This extended <span class="hlt">model</span> is applied to data sets from several seismic events including swarms that were induced by the M9.0 Tohoku-Oki <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of 2011.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9238C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9238C"><span id="translatedtitle">Interseismic Coupling <span class="hlt">Models</span> and their interactions with the Sources of Large and Great <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chlieh, M.; Perfettini, H.; Avouac, J. P.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Recent observations of heterogeneous strain build up reported from subduction zones and seismic sources of large and great interplate <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> indicate that seismic asperities are probably persistent features of the megathrust. The Peru Megathrust produce recurrently large seismic events like the 2001 Mw 8.4, Arequipa <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> or the 2007 Mw 8.0, Pisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The peruvian subduction zone provide an exceptional opportunity to understand the eventual relationship between interseismic coupling, large megathrust ruptures and the frictional properties of the megathrust. An emerging concept is a megathrust with strong locked fault patches surrounded by aseismic slip. The 2001, Mw 8.4 Arequipa <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured only the northern portion of the patch that had ruptured already during the great 1868 Mw~8.8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and that had remained locked in the interseismic period. The 2007 Mw 8.0 Pisco <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptured the southern portion of the 1746 Mw~8.5 event. The moment released in 2007 amounts to only a small fraction of the deficit of moment that had accumulated since the 1746 great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Then, the potential for future large megathrust events in Central and Southern Peru area remains large. These recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> indicate that a same portion of a megathrust can rupture in different ways depending on whether asperities break as isolated events or jointly to produce a larger rupture. The spatial distribution of frictional properties of the megathrust could be the cause for a more complex <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> sequence from one seismic cycle to another. The subduction of geomorphologic structure like the Nazca ridge could be the cause for a lower coupling there.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41C..07T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41C..07T"><span id="translatedtitle">Source mechanism of May 24, 2013 Sea of Okhotsk deep <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw8.3) estimated by broadband waveform <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsuboi, S.; Miyoshi, T.; Nakamura, T.; Obayashi, M.; Tono, Y.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>May 24, 2013 Sea of Okhotsk <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 8.3, depth 640km NEIC) is not only one of the largest events in this general region but also one of the largest deep <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ever recorded. We apply the waveform inversion technique (Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991) to obtain slip distribution in the source fault of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the same manner as our previous work (Nakamura et al., 2010). We use 57 broadband seismograms of IRIS GSN seismic stations with epicentral distance between 30 and 90 degrees. The broadband original data are integrated into ground displacement and band-pass filtered in the frequency band 0.002-1 Hz. Assuming 1D velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> and the fault size of 135 x 135 km (along strike and dip, respectively), we obtain source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> for both nodal planes with high dip angle (81 degree) and low dip angle (10 degree). In order to determine which source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> would explain the observations, we calculate broadband synthetic seismograms with these source <span class="hlt">models</span> for a realistic 3D Earth <span class="hlt">model</span> using the spectral-element method (Komatitsch & Tromp, 2001). We performed the simulations on 24,576 processors in 3072 nodes of the K-computer in RIKEN. We use a mesh with 200 million spectral-elements, for a total of 13 billion global integration grid points. This translates into an approximate grid spacing of 2.0 km along the Earth's surface. On this number of nodes, a simulation of 50 minutes of wave propagation accurate at periods of 4.5 seconds and longer requires about 5 hours of CPU time. The comparison of the synthetic waveforms with the observation shows that the source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> with the low dip angle fault plane better explains the observation especially at stations, which locate south of the epicenter. Our results indicate that the source rupture of this deep <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred along the horizontal fault plane inside the subducting pacific plate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S33B4509G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.S33B4509G"><span id="translatedtitle">Slip reactivation <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Mw9 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>: Dynamic rupture, sea floor displacements and tsunami simulations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Galvez, P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Rahnema, K.; Bader, M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The 2011 Mw9 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> has been recorded with a vast GPS and seismic network given unprecedented chance to seismologists to unveil complex rupture processes in a mega-thrust event. In fact more than one thousand near field strong-motion stations across Japan (K-Net and Kik-Net) revealed complex ground motion patterns attributed to the source effects, allowing to capture detailed information of the rupture process. The seismic stations surrounding the Miyagi regions (MYGH013) show two clear distinct waveforms separated by 40 seconds. This observation is consistent with the kinematic source <span class="hlt">model</span> obtained from the inversion of strong motion data performed by Lee's et al (2011). In this <span class="hlt">model</span> two rupture fronts separated by 40 seconds emanate close to the hypocenter and propagate towards the trench. This feature is clearly observed by stacking the slip-rate snapshots on fault points aligned in the EW direction passing through the hypocenter (Gabriel et al, 2012), suggesting slip reactivation during the main event. A repeating slip on large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> may occur due to frictional melting and thermal fluid pressurization effects. Kanamori & Heaton (2002) argued that during faulting of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> the temperature rises high enough creating melting and further reduction of friction coefficient. We created a 3D dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> to reproduce this slip reactivation pattern using SPECFEM3D (Galvez et al, 2014) based on a slip-weakening friction with sudden two sequential stress drops . Our <span class="hlt">model</span> starts like a M7-8 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> breaking dimly the trench, then after 40 seconds a second rupture emerges close to the trench producing additional slip capable to fully break the trench and transforming the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> into a megathrust event. The resulting sea floor displacements are in agreement with 1Hz GPS displacements (GEONET). The seismograms agree roughly with seismic records along the coast of Japan.The simulated sea floor displacement reaches 8-10 meters of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S43A2492S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S43A2492S"><span id="translatedtitle">A Directivity <span class="hlt">Model</span> For Moderate To Large <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> Based On The Direct-Point Parameter</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Spudich, P.; Chiou, B. S.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We have developed a new <span class="hlt">model</span> to predict directivity of pseudo-spectral acceleration in the 1- 10 second band for crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of magnitude exceeding 5.7. The <span class="hlt">model</span> uses a new directivity predictor, the Direct Point Parameter DPP, which, like the Isochrone Directivity Parameter IDP of Spudich and Chiou (2013), is based on isochrone theory but has several advantages over the IDP. The DPP has a stronger theoretical underpinning than IDP has, as it accounts for the radiation pattern of a finite, line source between the hypocenter and the 'direct point', which is a special point located in a zone of higher isochrone velocity than is the IDP ';closest point', (point on the fault closest to the site where ground motions are to be evaluated). The IDP <span class="hlt">model</span> by contrast uses a point source radiation pattern at the hypocenter. The DPP has smoother spatial variations than does the IDP. It does not depend on the location of the closest point, which can jump discontinuously from one segment of a geometrically complicated fault to another when the target site moves a small distance. Consequently, when using the DPP it is less likely a user's site will unknowingly be on the high or low side of a discontinuity in the predictor. Furthermore, the DPP is easier to calculate than the IDP because 1) the radiation pattern formulae are simpler, 2) it uses a simpler algorithm for handling multi-segment and multi-fault ruptures, and 3) a generalized coordinate transform is no longer necessary for non-planar faults. The directivity <span class="hlt">model</span> using the DPP is 'narrowband', meaning that the strength of directivity does not rise inexorably with period but rather is maximum at some period that increases with magnitude. The DPP <span class="hlt">model</span> is the only directivity <span class="hlt">model</span> explicitly included in one of the NGA-West 2 ground motion prediction equations, namely Chiou and Youngs (2013).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S51A2648G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S51A2648G"><span id="translatedtitle">Constraining Source Locations of Shallow Subduction Megathrust <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> in 1-D and 3-D Velocity <span class="hlt">Models</span> - A Case Study of the 2002 Mw=6.4 Osa <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>, Costa Rica</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grevemeyer, I.; Arroyo, I. G.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> source locations are generally routinely constrained using a global 1-D Earth <span class="hlt">model</span>. However, the source location might be associated with large uncertainties. This is definitively the case for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> occurring at active continental margins were thin oceanic crust subducts below thick continental crust and hence large lateral changes in crustal thickness occur as a function of distance to the deep-sea trench. Here, we conducted a case study of the 2002 Mw 6.4 Osa thrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in Costa Rica that was followed by an aftershock sequence. Initial relocations indicated that the main shock occurred fairly trenchward of most large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> along the Middle America Trench off central Costa Rica. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence occurred while a temporary network of ocean-bottom-hydrophones and land stations 80 km to the northwest were deployed. By adding readings from permanent Costa Rican stations, we obtain uncommon P wave coverage of a large subduction zone <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. We relocated this catalog using a nonlinear probabilistic approach using a 1-D and two 3-D P-wave velocity <span class="hlt">models</span>. The 3-D <span class="hlt">model</span> was either derived from 3-D tomography based on onshore stations and a priori <span class="hlt">model</span> based on seismic refraction data. All epicentres occurred close to the trench axis, but depth estimates vary by several tens of kilometres. Based on the epicentres and constraints from seismic reflection data the main shock occurred 25 km from the trench and probably along the plate interface at 5-10 km depth. The source location that agreed best with the geology was based on the 3-D velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> derived from a priori data. Aftershocks propagated downdip to the area of a 1999 Mw 6.9 sequence and partially overlapped it. The results indicate that underthrusting of the young and buoyant Cocos Ridge has created conditions for interpolate seismogenesis shallower and closer to the trench axis than elsewhere along the central Costa Rica margin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1114','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1114"><span id="translatedtitle">Post Test Analysis of a PCCV <span class="hlt">Model</span> Dynamically Tested Under Simulated Design-Basis <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Cherry, J.; Chokshi, N.; James, R.J.; Rashid, Y.R.; Tsurumaki, S.; Zhang, L.</p> <p>1998-11-09</p> <p>In a collaborative program between the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) of Japan under sponsorship of the Ministry of International Trade and Ihdustry, the seismic behavior of Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessels (PCCV) is being investigated. A 1:10 scale PCCV <span class="hlt">model</span> has been constructed by NUPEC and subjected to seismic simulation tests using the high performance shaking table at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory. A primary objective of the testing program is to demonstrate the capability of the PCCV to withstand design basis <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> with a significant safety margin against major damage or failure. As part of the collaborative program, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is conducting research in state-of-the-art analytical methods for predicting the seismic behavior of PCCV structures, with the eventual goal of understanding, validating, and improving calculations dated to containment structure performance under design and severe seismic events. With the increased emphasis on risk-informed- regulatory focus, more accurate ch&@erization (less uncertainty) of containment structural and functional integri~ is desirable. This paper presents results of post-test calculations conducted at ANATECH to simulate the design level scale <span class="hlt">model</span> tests.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S14A..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.S14A..01B"><span id="translatedtitle">Incorporating Micro-Mechanics Based Damage <span class="hlt">Models</span> into <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rupture Simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bhat, H.; Rosakis, A.; Sammis, C. G.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The micromechanical damage mechanics formulated by Ashby and Sammis, 1990 and generalized by Deshpande and Evans 2008 has been extended to allow for a more generalized stress state and to incorporate an experimentally motivated new crack growth (damage evolution) law that is valid over a wide range of loading rates. This law is sensitive to both the crack tip stress field and its time derivative. Incorporating this feature produces additional strain-rate sensitivity in the constitutive response. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is also experimentally verified by predicting the failure strength of Dionysus-Pentelicon marble over a wide range of strain rates. <span class="hlt">Model</span> parameters determined from quasi-static experiments were used to predict the failure strength at higher loading rates. Agreement with experimental results was excellent. After this verification step the constitutive law was incorporated into a Finite Element Code focused on simulating dynamic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> ruptures with specific focus on the ends of the fault (fault tip process zone) and the resulting strong ground motion radiation was studied.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23D..03F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23D..03F"><span id="translatedtitle">The Aleutian Tsunami of 1946: the Compound <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Landslide Source and Near-Field <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fryer, G. J.; Yamazaki, Y.; McMurtry, G. M.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The tsunami of April 1, 1946, spread death and destruction throughout the Pacific from the Aleutians to Antarctica, and produced exceptional runup, 42 m, at Scotch Cap on Unimak Island in the near field. López & Okal (2006) showed that the triggering <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was at least MW = 8.6, large enough to explain the far-field tsunami but still requiring a landslide or other secondary source to achieve the local runup. No convincing landslide was found until von Huene, et al (2014) merged all available multibeam data and reprocessed a old multichannel line to show that a feature on the Aleutian Terrace they call Lone Knoll (LK) is the displaced block of a translational slide. From 210Pb dating of push cores taken near the summit of LK, we find that a disruption in sedimentation occurred in 1946 at one site, but sedimentation was not disrupted at another site nearby. We infer that the slide block moved coherently at a speed close to the threshold for erosion of the hemipelagic clays. From GLORIA sidescan, Fryer, et al (2004) had earlier tentatively identified LK as a landslide deposit, but if the tsunami crossed the shallow Aleutian Shelf at the long-wave speed, that landslide had to extend up to the shelf edge to satisfy the known 48-min travel time to Scotch Cap. The resulting landslide was enormous, and a multibeam survey later in 2004 showed that it could not exist. The slide imaged by von Huene, et al is far smaller, with a headwall 30 km downslope at a depth of 3 km. The greater distance demands that the tsunami travel much faster across the shelf. The huge runup, however, suggests that wave height was a significant fraction of the water depth (only 80 m), so the tsunami probably crossed the Aleutian Shelf as a bore. From <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the landslide-generated tsunami with a shock-capturing dispersive code we infer that it did indeed cross the shelf as a bore traveling at roughly twice the long-wave speed. We are still exploring the dependence of the tsunami on slide</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S13D..02T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S13D..02T"><span id="translatedtitle">Source Mechanism of May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan Deep <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> (Mw7.8) Estimated by Broadband Waveform <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tsuboi, S.; Nakamura, T.; Miyoshi, T.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>May 30, 2015 Bonin Islands, Japan <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Mw 7.8, depth 679.9km GCMT) was one of the deepest <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> ever recorded. We apply the waveform inversion technique (Kikuchi & Kanamori, 1991) to obtain slip distribution in the source fault of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the same manner as our previous work (Nakamura et al., 2010). We use 60 broadband seismograms of IRIS GSN seismic stations with epicentral distance between 30 and 90 degrees. The broadband original data are integrated into ground displacement and band-pass filtered in the frequency band 0.002-1 Hz. We use the velocity structure <span class="hlt">model</span> IASP91 to calculate the wavefield near source and stations. We assume that the fault is squared with the length 50 km. We obtain source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> for both nodal planes with high dip angle (74 degree) and low dip angle (26 degree) and compare the synthetic seismograms with the observations to determine which source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> would explain the observations better. We calculate broadband synthetic seismograms with these source propagation <span class="hlt">models</span> using the spectral-element method (Komatitsch & Tromp, 2001). We use new Earth Simulator system in JAMSTEC to compute synthetic seismograms using the spectral-element method. The simulations are performed on 7,776 processors, which require 1,944 nodes of the Earth Simulator. On this number of nodes, a simulation of 50 minutes of wave propagation accurate at periods of 3.8 seconds and longer requires about 5 hours of CPU time. Comparisons of the synthetic waveforms with the observation at teleseismic stations show that the arrival time of pP wave calculated for depth 679km matches well with the observation, which demonstrates that the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> really happened below the 660 km discontinuity. In our present forward simulations, the source rupture <span class="hlt">model</span> with the low-angle fault dipping is likely to better explain the observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.U51B0043G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.U51B0043G"><span id="translatedtitle">Dynamic rupture <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the 2011 M9 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with an unstructured 3D spectral element method</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Galvez, P.; Ampuero, J. P.; Dalguer, L. A.; Nissen-Meyer, T.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>On March 11th 2011, a Mw 9 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> stroke Japan causing 28000 victims and triggering a devastating tsunami that caused severe damage along the Japanese coast. The exceptional amount of data recorded by this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, with thousands of sensors located all over Japan, provides a great opportunity for seismologist and engineers to investigate in detail the rupture process in order to better understand the physics of this type of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and their associated effects, like tsunamis. Here we investigate, by means of dynamic rupture simulations, a plausible mechanism to explain key observations about the rupture process of the 2011 M9 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, including the spatial complementarity between high and low frequency aspects of slip (e.g, Simons et al, Science 2011, Meng et al, GRL 2011). To <span class="hlt">model</span> the dynamic rupture of this event, we use a realistic non-planar fault geometry of the megathrust interface, using the unstructured 3D spectral element open source code SPECFEM3D-SESAME, in which we recently implemented the dynamic fault boundary conditions. This implementation follows the principles introduced by Ampuero (2002) and Kaneko et al. (2008) and involves encapsulated modules plugged into the code. Our current implementation provides the possibility of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> dynamic rupture for multiple, non-planar faults governed by slip-weakening friction. We successfully verified the code in several SCEC benchmarks, including a 3D problem with branched faults, as well as <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the rupture of subduction megathrust with a splay fault, finding results comparable to published results. Our first set of simulations is aimed at testing if the diversity of rupture phenomena during the 2011 M9 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (see Ampuero et al in this session) can be overall reproduced by assuming the most basic friction law, linear slip-weakening friction, but prescribing a spatially heterogeneous distribution of the critical slip weakening distance Dc and initial fault stresses. Our</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..DNP.HG007G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..DNP.HG007G"><span id="translatedtitle">Neutralizer for TRIUMF's experiment for measurements of parity <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> in francium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gorelov, Alexandre; Behr, J. A.; Kalita, M. R.; Pearson, M. R.; Tandecki, M.,; L, D.; Aubin, S.; Collister, R.; Dehart, A. C.; Gwinner, G.; Gomez, E.; Orozco, L. A.; Z, J.</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>The experiment at TRIUMF for measurements of parity <span class="hlt">non-conservation</span> (PNC) effects in magneto-optically trapped (MOT) isotopes of francium to test the Standard <span class="hlt">Model</span> at low energies underwent significant development. In particular, we have overhauled the design of the neutralizer, which catches ionized atoms from the ISAC radioactive beam facility and releases them in neutral form for trapping. We have adopted the design idea, proposed by group of researchers from State University of New York, Stony Brook. It assumed sequential collecting of radioactive species on cold foil, transport them to capture cell and release during short time heating of the foil. We have modified original electric connections to the foil, the way of mounting foil and replaced yttrium foil by zirconium one, more robust. Such modifications allowed us to ensure an operation of the neutralizer through more than 500,000 cycles (this makes possible continuous taking of data during 2 months) with the release about 10% of embedded atoms per cycle. This work is supported by the DOE and NSF (USA), CONACYT (Mexico) and NSERC (Canada). TRIUMF receives federal funding via a contribution agreement with the National Research Council of Canada.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvA..88a2510R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013PhRvA..88a2510R"><span id="translatedtitle">Parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> in Fr-like actinide and Cs-like rare-earth-metal ions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Roberts, B. M.; Dzuba, V. A.; Flambaum, V. V.</p> <p>2013-07-01</p> <p>Parity-<span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> (PNC) amplitudes are calculated for the 7s-6d3/2 transitions of the francium isoelectronic sequence (Fr, Ra+, Ac2+, Th3+, Pa4+, U5+, and Np6+) and for the 6s-5d3/2 transitions of the cesium isoelectronic sequence (Cs, Ba+, La2+, Ce3+, and Pr4+). We show in particular that isotopes of La2+, Ac2+, and Th3+ ions have strong potential in the search for new physics beyond the standard <span class="hlt">model</span>: The PNC amplitudes are large, the calculations are accurate, and the nuclei are practically stable. In addition, 232Th3+ ions have recently been trapped and cooled [Campbell , Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.102.233004 102, 233004 (2009)]. We also extend previous works by calculating the s-s PNC transitions in Ra+ and Ba+ and provide calculations of several energy levels, and electric dipole and quadrupole transition amplitudes for the Fr-like actinide ions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..DNP.FH004K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..DNP.FH004K"><span id="translatedtitle">Probing parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> effects with laser cooled and trapped francium atoms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kalita, Mukut; Aubin, Seth; Behr, John; Collister, Robert; Dehart, Austin; Gorelov, Alexandre; Garcia, Eduardo; Gwinner, Gerald; Kossin, Michael; Livermore, David; Orozco, Luis; Pearson, Matt; FrPNC Collaboration</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Measurements of parity <span class="hlt">nonconservation</span> (PNC) effects in atomic systems test the Standard <span class="hlt">Model</span> at low energies. We are developing an experiment to probe PNC effect in neutral francium atoms. Francium ions produced at the ISAC radioactive beam facility at TRIUMF are neutralized using a zirconium foil. The foil is momentarily heated and the released atoms are first trapped in a capture magneto optical trap (MOT). Then, the atoms are transported with about 50% efficiency to another MOT in a science chamber. In this chamber, in one experiment the 7S to 8S atomic transition will be probed using a laser beam, and in another experiment the ground state hyperfine transition will be probed using a microwave beam. In this talk I will report on recent developments towards the measurements. TRIUMF receives federal funding via a contribution agreement with the National Research Council of Canada. This work is also supported by NSERC from Canada, the DOE and NSF from the USA and CONACYT from Mexico.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MNRAS.463.3204R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016MNRAS.463.3204R"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> extension of Keplerian integrals and a new class of integrable system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Roa, Javier</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The invariance of the Lagrangian under time translations and rotations in Kepler's problem yields the conservation laws related to the energy and angular momentum. Noether's theorem reveals that these same symmetries furnish generalized forms of the first integrals in a special <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> case, which approximates various physical <span class="hlt">models</span>. The system is perturbed by a biparametric acceleration with components along the tangential and normal directions. A similarity transformation reduces the biparametric disturbance to a simpler uniparametric forcing along the velocity vector. The solvability conditions of this new problem are discussed, and closed-form solutions for the integrable cases are provided. Thanks to the conservation of a generalized energy, the orbits are classified as elliptic, parabolic, and hyperbolic. Keplerian orbits appear naturally as particular solutions to the problem. After characterizing the orbits independently, a unified form of the solution is built based on the Weierstrass elliptic functions. The new trajectories involve fundamental curves such as cardioids and logarithmic, sinusoidal, and Cotes' spirals. These orbits can represent the motion of particles perturbed by solar radiation pressure, of spacecraft with continuous-thrust propulsion, and some instances of Schwarzschild geodesics. Finally, the problem is connected with other known integrable systems in celestial mechanics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010NatPh...6..801M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010NatPh...6..801M"><span id="translatedtitle">Self-organized criticality occurs in <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> neuronal networks during `up' states</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Millman, Daniel; Mihalas, Stefan; Kirkwood, Alfredo; Niebur, Ernst</p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>During sleep, under anaesthesia and in vitro, cortical neurons in sensory, motor, association and executive areas fluctuate between so-called up and down states, which are characterized by distinct membrane potentials and spike rates. Another phenomenon observed in preparations similar to those that exhibit up and down states-such as anaesthetized rats, brain slices and cultures devoid of sensory input, as well as awake monkey cortex-is self-organized criticality (SOC). SOC is characterized by activity `avalanches' with a branching parameter near unity and size distribution that obeys a power law with a critical exponent of about -3/2. Recent work has demonstrated SOC in conservative neuronal network <span class="hlt">models</span>, but critical behaviour breaks down when biologically realistic `leaky' neurons are introduced. Here, we report robust SOC behaviour in networks of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic depression. We show analytically and numerically that these networks typically have two stable activity levels, corresponding to up and down states, that the networks switch spontaneously between these states and that up states are critical and down states are subcritical.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21804861','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21804861"><span id="translatedtitle">Self-organized criticality occurs in <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> neuronal networks during Up states.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Millman, Daniel; Mihalas, Stefan; Kirkwood, Alfredo; Niebur, Ernst</p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>During sleep, under anesthesia and in vitro, cortical neurons in sensory, motor, association and executive areas fluctuate between Up and Down states (UDS) characterized by distinct membrane potentials and spike rates [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]. Another phenomenon observed in preparations similar to those that exhibit UDS, such as anesthetized rats [6], brain slices and cultures devoid of sensory input [7], as well as awake monkey cortex [8] is self-organized criticality (SOC). This is characterized by activity "avalanches" whose size distributions obey a power law with critical exponent of about [Formula: see text] and branching parameter near unity. Recent work has demonstrated SOC in conservative neuronal network <span class="hlt">models</span> [9, 10], however critical behavior breaks down when biologically realistic non-conservatism is introduced [9]. We here report robust SOC behavior in networks of <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic depression. We show analytically and numerically that these networks typically have 2 stable activity levels corresponding to Up and Down states, that the networks switch spontaneously between them, and that Up states are critical and Down states are subcritical.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S11C..06G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.S11C..06G"><span id="translatedtitle">Active Faults and Seismic Sources of the Middle East Region: <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the Middle East (EMME) Project</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gulen, L.; EMME WP2 Team*</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the GEM (Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span>) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). The EMME project covers Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project consists of three main modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic modules. The EMME project uses PSHA approach for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard and the existing source <span class="hlt">models</span> have been revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. The most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones is its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that permits continuous update, refinement, and analysis. An up-to-date <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> catalog of the Middle East region has been prepared and declustered by the WP1 team. EMME WP2 team has prepared a digital active fault map of the Middle East region in ArcGIS format. We have constructed a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. The EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a "Fault Section Database", which contains 36 entries for each fault section. The "Fault Section" concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far 6,991 Fault Sections have been defined and 83,402 km of faults are fully parameterized in the Middle East region. A separate "Paleo-Sites Database" includes information on the timing and amounts of fault</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016DokPh..61..188B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016DokPh..61..188B"><span id="translatedtitle">Properties of "started" <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Babeshko, V. A.; Evdokimova, O. V.; Babeshko, O. M.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The properties of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> called "started" in [1] are studied. The problems associated with the method of revealing them, the expected behavior of the event, and the determination of its place, time, and intensity are discussed. Certain characteristic properties of real <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are compared with the <span class="hlt">modeled</span> ones. It is emphasized that there are no data on <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> of a similar type in scientific publications. The method of using high-efficiency calculations is proposed by imbedding the investigations in topological spaces having a wider spectrum of properties than the functional ones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41B2450M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S41B2450M"><span id="translatedtitle">Numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of interaction between shallow very low frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and deep slow slip events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Matsuzawa, T.; Shibazaki, B.; Obara, K.; Hirose, H.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>We numerically simulate shallow very low frequency <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (SVLFs) and slow slip events (SSEs) in a single <span class="hlt">model</span>. SSEs in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, are classified to short- and long-term depending on their duration. Short-term SSEs are found with episodic tremor activity, and recur at the interval of several months. Long-term SSEs are located at shallower part than short-term SSEs, and recur at the interval of 6-7 years at the Bungo Channel in the Nankai subduction zone. Both of long- and short-term SSEs are found at the deeper extent of the major slip region of megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. On the other hand, SVLFs are found at close to the trench axis, and have a dominant frequency below 0.1 Hz. Hirose et al. (2010) reported that SVLFs became active during periods of long-term SSEs in the Bungo channel. Long- and short-term SSEs are numerically reproduced in a flat plate <span class="hlt">model</span>, adopting a rate- and state-dependent friction law with cutoff velocities (Matsuzawa et al., 2010). In addition, Shibazaki et al. (2012) successfully reproduced segments of short-term SSEs and nonvolcanic tremor, introducing actual tremor distribution and the configuration of subducting plate. However, occurrence of SVLFs and the interaction with long-term SSEs have not been reproduced in a numerical <span class="hlt">model</span>. In this study, we numerically reproduce the characteristics of SVLFs in a flat plate <span class="hlt">model</span>. In the numerical simulations, the rate- and state-dependent friction law (RS-law) with cut-off velocities is adopted to reproduce SSEs. We assume low effective normal stress and negative (a-b) value in the RS-law at the long- and short-term SSE region, as in our previous study (Matsuzawa et al., 2010). Above the depth of 10 km, we pose circular patches for SVLFs with low-effective normal stress. Based on rock experiment, Saito et al. (2013) suggested that frictional property in the SVLF region changes from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening with the increase of slip velocity. Thus</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1162/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1162/"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Rate <span class="hlt">Model</span> 2.2 of the 2007 Working Group for California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, Appendix D: Magnitude-Area Relationships</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stein, Ross S.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Summary To estimate the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, the Executive Committee has chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the 99% depth of background seismicity to assign W. For the predicted <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> magnitude-fault area scaling used to estimate the maximum magnitude of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture from a fault's length, L, and W, the Committee has assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2002) (as updated in 2007) equations. The former uses a single relation; the latter uses a bilinear relation which changes slope at M=6.65 (A=537 km2).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EP%26S...69...23H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EP%26S...69...23H"><span id="translatedtitle">A megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle <span class="hlt">model</span> for Northeast Japan: bridging the mismatch between geological uplift and geodetic subsidence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hashima, Akinori; Sato, Toshinori</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>In Northeast Japan, it remains a puzzle to reconcile the mismatch between long-term (geological) uplift and late-interseismic and coseismic subsidence associated with the 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. To explain this mismatch between different periods, we <span class="hlt">modeled</span> the entire megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle in the Northeast Japan arc using a simple dislocation <span class="hlt">model</span> with a two-layered lithosphere-asthenosphere structure in which we account for viscoelastic relaxation in the asthenosphere and tectonic erosion. The <span class="hlt">model</span> behaves differently when the rupture stops within the lithosphere and when it cuts through the lithosphere to reach the asthenosphere. It is possible to explain the mismatch in the case where the rupture stops within the lithosphere. In the early interseismic stage, the viscoelastic response to the megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> dominates and can compensate for late-interseismic and coseismic subsidence. In contrast, the late-interseismic stage is dominated by the locking effect with the steady slip below the rupture area. Tectonic erosion explains up to about half of the long-term uplift by landward movement of arc topography. The rest of the long-term uplift may be attributed to indirect effects of internal deformation in the arc. [Figure not available: see fulltext.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.2720A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.2720A"><span id="translatedtitle">Fault Slip Controlled By Gouge Rheology: A <span class="hlt">Model</span> For Slow <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Amoruso, A.; Crescentini, L.; Dragoni, M.; Piombo, A.</p> <p></p> <p>During 1997 several slow <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> have been recorded by a geodetic interferom- eter located beneath Gran Sasso in Central Italy. The strain rise times of the events range from tens to thousands of seconds, strain amplitudes are of the order of 10-9. Amplitudes scale with the square root of the rise time and this suggests a diffusive behavior of the slip propagation along the fault. In this work we assume that slip dif- fusion is due to the presence of a gouge layer between fault faces, with a visco-plastic rheology. Fault gouge behavior is elastic if shear stress is less than yield stress. If the yield stress is reached, gouge behaves as an incompressible Newtonian fluid. Fluid velocity diffuses in the directions of fault length and fault thickness, with different characteristic times. This <span class="hlt">model</span> reproduces the relation between amplitude and rise time of measured strain signals. Synthetic straingrams, obtained for a horizontally layered flat earth and a source located at a few km from the instrument, are in good agreement with observed signals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T43A2641H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T43A2641H"><span id="translatedtitle">The interseismic, coseismic and permanent crustal deformation in the Tohoku region, Japan by the kinematic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hashima, A.; Sato, T.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>In the Tohoku region, Japan, we can observe the different crustal deformation patterns through several stages of the great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle. The heights of marine and river terraces in the late Quaternary indicate permanent uplift up to 1 mm/yr in the whole Tohoku region. On the contrary, geodetic observation of the recent 100 years shows subsidence up to 5-10 mm/yr particularly on the Pacific coast. Therefore, in terms of long-term balance, great uplift was expected at the great <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. However, GPS observation at the M9.0, 2011 Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> shows further subsidence of 1 m. It remains a puzzle the stage at which Tohoku turns to uplift, and its mechanism. In this study, we construct a kinematic subduction <span class="hlt">model</span> with dislocations to explain these variable features in Tohoku in a unified way. We assume a 40-km thick elastic surface layer over viscoelastic half-space as lithosphere-asthenosphere system. Two-dimensional plate interface is taken from the vertical section near the epicenter of the Tohoku <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of the CAMP plate boundary <span class="hlt">model</span>. The slip on the plate interface is decomposed into three components: steady slip on the whole plate interface (steady subduciton), increase of slip deficit in the locked region (interseismic locking) and periodic seismic slip. We give relative plate velocity (8 cm/yr) as steady slip and assume that fracture occur each 500 years on the 500-km long locked region. For simplicity, uniform coseismic slip over the fault region is assumed. First, the permanent deformation is affected only by the effect of steady subduciton, regardless of the coseismic slip. The deformation shows subsidence at the trench and uplift in the arc region, which agrees well with the uplifts in geological timescale in Tohoku. On the other hand, the coseismic deformation shows uplift near the trench and subsidence at the lower edge and inland area. For the interseismic deformation, the vertical extent of the fault slip region is significantly</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037618','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037618"><span id="translatedtitle">Ground-motion <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of Hayward fault scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We construct kinematic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004APS..APR.C1020C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004APS..APR.C1020C"><span id="translatedtitle">Finding the Real Wave Equation Sought by Schrodinger for a <span class="hlt">Nonconservative</span> System</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Robert L. W.</p> <p>2004-05-01</p> <p>Schrodinger believed that a proper quantum mechanical wave equation should be a real wave equation rather than a complex one. The use of some modern mathematical works that did not exist in his time- a theorem in Courant & Hilbert Vol. II among others- enable us to (1) show that there is indeed a problem with the complex wave equation for the case of a <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> system, and (2) obtain a satisfactory real wave equation, applicable to conservative as well as <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> systems. The difference in results from the existing theory is significant for particles of very small mass.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH43D..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH43D..03S"><span id="translatedtitle">Gorkha <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-induced landslides and dammed lakes: Evolution and outburst <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shugar, D. H.; Immerzeel, W.; Wanders, N.; Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Haritashya, U. K.; Collins, B. D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>On 25 April 2015, the Gorkha <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> (Mw 7.8) struck Nepal, generating thousands of landslides in Nepal, Tibet (China), and India. While the majority of these hazards were triggered co-seismically, many are considered secondary effects occurring during the weeks following the main shock, based on high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery. Here we report on a series of shallow, post-seismic landslides into the upper Marsyangdi River in the Annapurna region of the central Nepal Himalayas. These landslides constricted and blocked the river, causing impoundments that presented acute flood risks to communities downstream. On April 27, two days following the main shock, ~4.7 x 104 m3 of water was impounded behind a series of small constrictions. By May 28, the total volume of impounded water had increased to ~6.4 x 105 m3. The downstream flood risk was especially significant in the event of a domino-like cascade of dam breaches. We examine the timing, distribution and evolution of the landslide-dammed lakes and quantify the risk of inundation-scenarios to downstream communities with a hydrological <span class="hlt">model</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> uses a fully kinematic wave simulation at a 30 m-spatial and 2 sec-temporal resolution to resolve the height, timing and volume of a possible outburst flood wave. Our <span class="hlt">modeling</span> shows that a rapid dam burst involving only the lowest, largest lake would increase water levels at the nearest village of Lower Pisang ~2 km downstream by >7m in a matter of minutes. Approximately 70 km downstream, the flood wave would be mostly attenuated, raising water levels only tens of centimeters. Fortunately, at the time of writing, no flood had occurred.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13A1911M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13A1911M"><span id="translatedtitle">The Canterbury Tales: Lessons from the Canterbury <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Sequence to Inform Better Public Communication <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McBride, S.; Tilley, E. N.; Johnston, D. M.; Becker, J.; Orchiston, C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>This research evaluates the public education <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> information prior to the Canterbury <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> sequence (2010-present), and examines communication learnings to create recommendations for improvement in implementation for these types of campaigns in future. The research comes from a practitioner perspective of someone who worked on these campaigns in Canterbury prior to the <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Sequence and who also was the Public Information Manager Second in Command during the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> response in February 2011. Documents, specifically those addressing seismic risk, that were created prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> sequence, were analyzed, using a "best practice matrix" created by the researcher, for how closely these aligned to best practice academic research. Readability tests and word counts are also employed to assist with triangulation of the data as was practitioner involvement. This research also outlines the lessons learned by practitioners and explores their experiences in regards to creating these materials and how they perceive these now, given all that has happened since the inception of the booklets. The findings from the research showed these documents lacked many of the attributes of best practice. The overly long, jargon filled text had little positive outcome expectancy messages. This probably would have failed to persuade anyone that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were a real threat in Canterbury. Paradoxically, it is likely these booklets may have created fatalism in publics who read the booklets. While the overall intention was positive, for scientists to explain <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, tsunami, landslides and other risks to encourage the public to prepare for these events, the implementation could be greatly improved. This final component of the research highlights points of improvement for implementation for more successful campaigns in future. The importance of preparedness and science information campaigns can be not only in preparing the population but also into development of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198.1438B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoJI.198.1438B"><span id="translatedtitle">CyberShake-derived ground-motion prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> for the Los Angeles region with application to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Böse, Maren; Graves, Robert W.; Gill, David; Callaghan, Scott; Maechling, Philip J.</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Real-time applications such as <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> early warning (EEW) typically use empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) along with event magnitude and source-to-site distances to estimate expected shaking levels. In this simplified approach, effects due to finite-fault geometry, directivity and site and basin response are often generalized, which may lead to a significant under- or overestimation of shaking from large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (M > 6.5) in some locations. For enhanced site-specific ground-motion predictions considering 3-D wave-propagation effects, we develop support vector regression (SVR) <span class="hlt">models</span> from the SCEC CyberShake low-frequency (<0.5 Hz) and broad-band (0-10 Hz) data sets. CyberShake encompasses 3-D wave-propagation simulations of >415 000 finite-fault rupture scenarios (6.5 ≤ M ≤ 8.5) for southern California defined in UCERF 2.0. We use CyberShake to demonstrate the application of synthetic waveform data to EEW as a `proof of concept', being aware that these simulations are not yet fully validated and might not appropriately sample the range of rupture uncertainty. Our regression <span class="hlt">models</span> predict the maximum and the temporal evolution of instrumental intensity (MMI) at 71 selected test sites using only the hypocentre, magnitude and rupture ratio, which characterizes uni- and bilateral rupture propagation. Our regression approach is completely data-driven (where here the CyberShake simulations are considered data) and does not enforce pre-defined functional forms or dependencies among input parameters. The <span class="hlt">models</span> were established from a subset (˜20 per cent) of CyberShake simulations, but can explain MMI values of all >400 k rupture scenarios with a standard deviation of about 0.4 intensity units. We apply our <span class="hlt">models</span> to determine threshold magnitudes (and warning times) for various active faults in southern California that <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> need to exceed to cause at least `moderate', `strong' or `very strong' shaking in the Los Angeles (LA) basin</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JAsGe...2..166O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JAsGe...2..166O"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of strong ground motion during the 1992 Cairo <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the urban area northern Greater of Cairo, Egypt</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Omar, Khaled; Attia, Mohsen; Fergany, El Sayed; Hassoup, Awad; Elkhashab, Hussein</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>The 1992 Cairo <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> originated from Dahshour seismic zone at an epicentral distance of about 25 km southwest of Cairo. Regardless of its relatively moderate magnitude (Mb = 5.8), it caused extensive property damage besides injuries and loss of lives. The significant damage of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was probably associated with amplification of seismic waves due to local site effects. Liquefaction was observed at many sites near the epicenter. There are no records of strong ground motion at the damaged area during this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The main shock was recorded only by the local Kattamya station (KEG) constructed in limestone rock site at about 46-48 km east of Cairo. In the present work, the strong ground motion during 1992 Cairo <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> was analyzed and the possible causes of damage and structural failure were discussed. The study area is located at the southern part of Cairo city, holding heavy population and many public structures and strategic buildings. The ground motion parameters in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) were estimated for each site in the study area and in the KEG site. The site-dependent spectral <span class="hlt">models</span> together with the stochastic technique were applied for this purpose, using the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling, attenuation <span class="hlt">model</span>, and the site amplification functions. The peak ground acceleration of the studied area, comprising 89 sites in northern great of Cairo (Qalyoub city) was calculated. The calculated peak ground acceleration values indicate the sites of high values of peak ground acceleration which are also characterized by high ground motion amplification factors. The ground motion, which is presented in this study, is highly amplified by the soil layer covering the area. Otherwise, the surface layer must be totally removed before construction of the buildings to avoid its large amplification to the ground motion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15..737F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15..737F"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and failure forecasting in real-time: A Forecasting <span class="hlt">Model</span> Testing Centre</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Filgueira, Rosa; Atkinson, Malcolm; Bell, Andrew; Main, Ian; Boon, Steven; Meredith, Philip</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Across Europe there are a large number of rock deformation laboratories, each of which runs many experiments. Similarly there are a large number of theoretical rock physicists who develop constitutive and computational <span class="hlt">models</span> both for rock deformation and changes in geophysical properties. Here we consider how to open up opportunities for sharing experimental data in a way that is integrated with multiple hypothesis testing. We present a prototype for a new forecasting <span class="hlt">model</span> testing centre based on e-infrastructures for capturing and sharing data and <span class="hlt">models</span> to accelerate the Rock Physicist (RP) research. This proposal is triggered by our work on data assimilation in the NERC EFFORT (<span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> and Failure Forecasting in Real Time) project, using data provided by the NERC CREEP 2 experimental project as a test case. EFFORT is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between Geoscientists, Rock Physicists and Computer Scientist. Brittle failure of the crust is likely to play a key role in controlling the timing of a range of geophysical hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, yet the predictability of brittle failure is unknown. Our aim is to provide a facility for developing and testing <span class="hlt">models</span> to forecast brittle failure in experimental and natural data. <span class="hlt">Model</span> testing is performed in real-time, verifiably prospective mode, in order to avoid selection biases that are possible in retrospective analyses. The project will ultimately quantify the predictability of brittle failure, and how this predictability scales from simple, controlled laboratory conditions to the complex, uncontrolled real world. Experimental data are collected from controlled laboratory experiments which includes data from the UCL Laboratory and from Creep2 project which will undertake experiments in a deep-sea laboratory. We illustrate the properties of the prototype testing centre by streaming and analysing realistically noisy synthetic data, as an aid to generating and improving testing methodologies in</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1900D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1900D"><span id="translatedtitle">The costs and benefits of reconstruction options in Nepal using the CEDIM FDA <span class="hlt">modelled</span> and empirical analysis following the 2015 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Kunz, Michael; Muehr, Bernhard</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Over the days following the 2015 Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, rapid loss estimates of deaths and the economic loss and reconstruction cost were undertaken by our research group in conjunction with the World Bank. This <span class="hlt">modelling</span> relied on historic losses from other Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> as well as detailed socioeconomic data and <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss information via CATDAT. The <span class="hlt">modelled</span> results were very close to the final death toll and reconstruction cost for the 2015 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of around 9000 deaths and a direct building loss of ca. 3 billion (a). A description of the process undertaken to produce these loss estimates is described and the potential for use in analysing reconstruction costs from future Nepal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in rapid time post-event. The reconstruction cost and death toll <span class="hlt">model</span> is then used as the base <span class="hlt">model</span> for the examination of the effect of spending money on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> retrofitting of buildings versus complete reconstruction of buildings. This is undertaken future events using empirical statistics from past events along with further analytical <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. The effects of investment vs. the time of a future event is also explored. Preliminary low-cost options (b) along the line of other country studies for retrofitting (ca. 100) are examined versus the option of different building typologies in Nepal as well as investment in various sectors of construction. The effect of public vs. private capital expenditure post-<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is also explored as part of this analysis, as well as spending on other components outside of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. a) http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-calculate-new-loss-predictions-for-nepal-quake/ b) http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23-Daniell.pdf</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..162K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44..162K"><span id="translatedtitle">Nucleation process of magnitude 2 repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on the San Andreas Fault predicted by rate-and-state fault <span class="hlt">models</span> with SAFOD drill core data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Carpenter, Brett M.; Nielsen, Stefan B.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Recent laboratory shear-slip experiments conducted on a nominally flat frictional interface reported the intriguing details of a two-phase nucleation of stick-slip motion that precedes the dynamic rupture propagation. This behavior was subsequently reproduced by a physics-based <span class="hlt">model</span> incorporating laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction laws. However, applying the laboratory and theoretical results to the nucleation of crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> remains challenging due to poorly constrained physical and friction properties of fault zone rocks at seismogenic depths. Here we apply the same physics-based <span class="hlt">model</span> to simulate the nucleation process of crustal <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> using unique data acquired during the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) experiment and new and existing measurements of friction properties of SAFOD drill core samples. Using this well-constrained <span class="hlt">model</span>, we predict what the nucleation phase will look like for magnitude ˜2 repeating <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> on segments of the San Andreas Fault at a 2.8 km depth. We find that despite up to 3 orders of magnitude difference in the physical and friction parameters and stress conditions, the behavior of the <span class="hlt">modeled</span> nucleation is qualitatively similar to that of laboratory <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, with the nucleation consisting of two distinct phases. Our results further suggest that precursory slow slip associated with the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> nucleation phase may be observable in the hours before the occurrence of the magnitude ˜2 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by strain measurements close (a few hundred meters) to the hypocenter, in a position reached by the existing borehole.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMNH41A3773H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMNH41A3773H"><span id="translatedtitle">Investigating Potential <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Triggers for the Exceptionally Large Green Lake Rock Avalanche, New Zealand, through Fuzzy Logic GIS Based Landslide Susceptibility <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hall, L.; Robinson, T.; Duffy, B. G.; Hampton, S.; Gravley, D. M.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Coseismic landslide <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the Fiordland region of New Zealand explores potential triggers for the Green Lake rock avalanche (GLRA). The GLRA, which occurred post-deglaciation ~14,000 years ago, contains 27 km3 of debris, making it the largest identified landslide in New Zealand and one of the largest on Earth. Due to its large volume, the GLRA was most likely coseismically triggered. The only work to- date suggests MM IX-X shaking from an Alpine Fault event initiated collapse. However, as the Alpine Fault is >80 km from the GLRA, such high shaking intensities seem improbable. Coseismic landslide susceptibility was thus <span class="hlt">modeled</span> using fuzzy logic and GIS for a number of potential <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios to identify a more likely trigger. Existing coseismic landslide inventories for the 2003 and 2009 Fiordland <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> were used to determine relationships between landslide occurrence, slope angle, proximity to faults and streams, slope position, and shaking intensity. Slope position and proximity to streams were not found to correlate with the formation of landslides, leaving shaking intensity, slope angle, and proximity to faults to be used in the final <span class="hlt">models</span>. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> scenarios include a M8.0 southern Alpine Fault rupture, a M8.0 Puysegur Trench <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, and a M7.0 on the nearby Hauroko Fault. Coseismic landslide susceptibility is highest at Green Lake for the Hauroko Fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, reaching values of >0.9 compared to ~0.5 and ~0.6 for the Alpine Fault and Puysegur Trench <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Consequently, we infer that the GLRA was potentially initiated by a large (M~7) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on the Hauroko Fault and not an M8 Alpine Fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. This suggests that seismic hazard in the Southern Alps is not limited to the plate boundary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23A1863W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH23A1863W"><span id="translatedtitle">Detection and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of the Tsunami Generated by 2013 Okhotsk Deep Focus <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Williamson, A.; Newman, A. V.; Okal, E. A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The May 24, 2013 moment magnitude (MW) 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk deep <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is the largest deep focused <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> on record. This event is the only great (Mw > 8.0) <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the past two decades to rupture at a depth greater than 300 km and is the only deep <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to be detected by modern geodetic tools such as DART pressure sensors, continuous GPS, and GRACE. Continuous GPS stations along the Kamchatka Peninsula and Kuril Islands recorded sub-centimeter static displacements including subsidence across the peninsula, inferring a spatially extensive region of uplift within the Sea of Okhotsk likely generating a low-amplitude, but long-wavelength tsunami wave. We use water column height changes recorded at 10 regional DART pressure sensors, to evaluate the detectability and usability of these tsunami sensors in identifying tsunami waves from such deep <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. Of the 10 sites, only 2 were triggered by the event, enabling capture of high-rate (one sample per minute) pressure data. The remaining sites reported at the background rate of 15 minutes per sample. From these sensors we observed sub-centimeter tsunami waves, in general agreement with synthetics computed using normal mode theory, following the framework of Ward (1980). Additionally, despite remaining at the low-frequency background rate, we were able to identify wave periods around 9000 s across multiple DART stations. We will report on our observations of the long-period tsunami waves from these sensors, and our analysis of how they compare to both reported, and our best-fit determination of the Okhotsk <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> focal mechanism and location.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92...75P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92...75P"><span id="translatedtitle">Testing <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Source Inversion Methodologies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Page, Morgan; Mai, P. Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversions are routinely performed after large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data and the complex rupture process at depth. The resulting <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source <span class="hlt">models</span> quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of ruptures. They are also used to provide a rapid assessment of the severity of an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and to estimate losses. However, because of uncertainties in the data, assumed fault geometry and velocity structure, and chosen rupture parameterization, it is not clear which features of these source <span class="hlt">models</span> are robust. Improved understanding of the uncertainty and reliability of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> source inversions will allow the scientific community to use the robust features of kinematic inversions to more thoroughly investigate the complexity of the rupture process and to better constrain other <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-related computations, such as ground motion simulations and static stress change calculations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70112788','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70112788"><span id="translatedtitle">Finite-fault slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from regional waveforms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Sun, Xiaodan; Hartzell, Stephen</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The slip <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is inferred using a linear least squares methodology. Waveforms of six aftershocks recorded at 21 regional stations are used as empirical Green's functions (EGFs). The solution indicates two large slip patches: one located around the hypocenter with a depth range of 3–5.5 km; the other located to the southwest of the epicenter with a depth range from 7.5 to 9.5 km. The total moment of the solution is estimated at 3.37 × 1024 dyne cm (Mw 5.65). The peak slip and average stress drop for the source at the hypocenter are 70 cm and 90 bars, respectively, approximately one half the values for the Mw 5.8 2011 Mineral, Virginia, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The stress drop averaged over all areas of slip is 16 bars. The relatively low peak slip and stress drop may indicate an induced component in the origin of the Prague <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from deep fluid injection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43..643H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43..643H"><span id="translatedtitle">Source <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, Mw 8.4 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> based on teleseismic and tsunami data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Murotani, Satoko; Satake, Kenji; Ishibe, Takeo; Gusman, Aditya Riadi</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We proposed a source <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 16 September 2015 Illapel (Chile) tsunamigenic <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> using teleseismic and tsunami data. The 2015 epicenter was at the northernmost of the aftershocks zone of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Teleseismic body wave inversions and tsunami simulations showed optimum rupture velocities of 1.5-2.0 km/s. The agreement between observed and synthetic waveforms was quantified using normalized root-mean-square (NRMS) misfit. The variations of NRMS misfits were larger for tsunami data compared to the teleseismic data, because tsunami waveforms are more sensitive to the spatial distribution of slip. The large-slip area was 80 km (along strike) × 100 km (along dip) with an average slip of 5.0 m and depth of 12-33 km, located ~70 km to the northwest of the epicenter. We obtained a seismic moment of 4.42 × 1021 Nm equivalent to Mw 8.4. Results may indicate a northward stress transfer from the 2010 Maule <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.4207S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.4207S"><span id="translatedtitle">Finite-fault slip <span class="hlt">model</span> of the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from regional waveforms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sun, Xiaodan; Hartzell, Stephen</p> <p>2014-06-01</p> <p>The slip <span class="hlt">model</span> for the 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, Oklahoma, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is inferred using a linear least squares methodology. Waveforms of six aftershocks recorded at 21 regional stations are used as empirical Green's functions (EGFs). The solution indicates two large slip patches: one located around the hypocenter with a depth range of 3-5.5 km; the other located to the southwest of the epicenter with a depth range from 7.5 to 9.5 km. The total moment of the solution is estimated at 3.37 × 1024 dyne cm (Mw 5.65). The peak slip and average stress drop for the source at the hypocenter are 70 cm and 90 bars, respectively, approximately one half the values for the Mw 5.8 2011 Mineral, Virginia, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The stress drop averaged over all areas of slip is 16 bars. The relatively low peak slip and stress drop may indicate an induced component in the origin of the Prague <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> from deep fluid injection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70073548','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70073548"><span id="translatedtitle">Aftershock distribution as a constraint on the geodetic <span class="hlt">model</span> of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Bennington, Ninfa; Thurber, Clifford; Feigl, Kurt; ,</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a <span class="hlt">model</span> of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each <span class="hlt">model</span> cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained <span class="hlt">model</span> is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip <span class="hlt">models</span>. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained <span class="hlt">model</span>, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip <span class="hlt">model</span> constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between <span class="hlt">models</span> derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920035534&hterms=earthquake+prediction&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dearthquake%2Bprediction','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920035534&hterms=earthquake+prediction&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dearthquake%2Bprediction"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Turcotte, Donald L.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>The state of the art in <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> prediction are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ211635.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ211635.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Hazards.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Donovan, Neville</p> <p>1979-01-01</p> <p>Provides a survey and a review of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. (BT)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1448S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.1448S"><span id="translatedtitle">Periodicity in the spatial-temporal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> distributions for the Pacific region: observation and <span class="hlt">modeling</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sasorova, Elena; Levin, Boris</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>In the course of the last century a cyclic increasing and decreasing of the Earth's seismic activity (SA) was marked. The variations of the SA for the events with M>=7.0 from 1900 up to date were under study. The two subsets of the worldwide NEIC (USGS) catalog were used: USGS/NEIC from 1973 to 2012 and catalog of the significant worldwide <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> (2150 B.C. - 1994 A.D.), compiled by USGS/NEIC from the NOAA agency. The preliminary standardization of magnitudes and elimination of aftershocks from list of events was performed. The entire period of observations was subdivided into 5-year intervals. The temporal distributions of the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (EQ) density and released energy density were calculated separately for the Southern hemisphere (SH), and for the Northern hemisphere (NH) and for eighteen latitudinal belts: 90°-80°N, 80°-70°N, 70°-60°N, 60°-50°N and so on (the size of each belt is equal to 10°). The periods of the SA was compared for different latitudinal belts of the Earth. The peaks and decays of the seismicity do not coincide in time for different latitudinal belts and especially for the belts located in NH and SH. The peaks and decays of the SA for the events (with M>=8) were marked in the temporal distributions of the EQ for all studied latitudinal belts. The two-dimension distributions (over latitudes and over time) of the EQ density and released energy density highlighted that the periods of amplification of the SA are equal to 30-35 years approximately. Next, we check the existence of a non-random component in the EQ occurrence between the NH and the SH. All events were related to the time axis according to their origin time. We take into consideration the set of the EQs in the studied catalog as the sequence of events if each event may have only one of two possible outcome (occurrence in the NH or in the SH). A nonparametric run test was used for testing of hypothesis about an existence the nonrandom component in the examined sequence of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1716S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016cosp...41E1716S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of sub-ionospheric VLF signal anomalies associated with precursory effects of the latest <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Nepal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sasmal, Sudipta; Chakrabarti, Sandip Kumar; Palit, Sourav; Chakraborty, Suman; Ghosh, Soujan; Ray, Suman</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>We present the nature of perturbations in the propagation characteristics of Very Low Frequency (VLF) signals received at Ionospheric & <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Research Centre (IERC) (Lat. 22.50 ^{o}N, Long. 87.48 ^{o}E) during and prior to the latest strong <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in Nepal on 12 May 2015 at 12:50 pm local time (07:05 UTC) with a magnitude of 7.3 and depth 18 km at southeast of Kodari. The VLF signal emitted from JJI transmitter (22.2kHz) in Japan (Lat. 32.08 ^{o}N, Long. 130.83 ^{o}E) shows strong shifts in sunrise and sunset terminator times towards nighttime beginning three to four days prior to the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The shift in terminator times is numerically simulated using Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code. Electron density variation as a function of height is calculated for seismically quiet days using the Wait's exponential profile and it matches with the IRI <span class="hlt">model</span>. The perturbed electron density is calculated using the effective reflection height (h') and sharpness parameter (β) and the rate of ionization due to <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is being obtained by the equation of continuity for ionospheric D-layer. We compute the ion production and recombination profiles during seismic and non-seismic conditions incorporating D-region ion chemistry processes and calculate the unperturbed and perturbed electron density profile and ionization rate at different heights which matches with the exponential profile. During the seismic condition, for both the cases, the rate of ionization and the electron density profile differ significantly from the normal values. We interpret this to be due to the seismo-ionospheric coupling processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/146985','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/146985"><span id="translatedtitle">Analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hofmann, R.B.</p> <p>1995-09-01</p> <p>Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span> are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> at sites where no <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20481843','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20481843"><span id="translatedtitle">Benchmark calculations of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> charged-particle swarms in dc electric and magnetic fields crossed at arbitrary angles.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dujko, S; White, R D; Petrović, Z Lj; Robson, R E</p> <p>2010-04-01</p> <p>A multiterm solution of the Boltzmann equation has been developed and used to calculate transport coefficients of charged-particle swarms in gases under the influence of electric and magnetic fields crossed at arbitrary angles when <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> collisions are present. The hierarchy resulting from a spherical-harmonic decomposition of the Boltzmann equation in the hydrodynamic regime is solved numerically by representing the speed dependence of the phase-space distribution function in terms of an expansion in Sonine polynomials about a Maxwellian velocity distribution at an internally determined temperature. Results are given for electron swarms in certain collisional <span class="hlt">models</span> for ionization and attachment over a range of angles between the fields and field strengths. The implicit and explicit effects of ionization and attachment on the electron-transport coefficients are considered using physical arguments. It is found that the difference between the two sets of transport coefficients, bulk and flux, resulting from the explicit effects of <span class="hlt">nonconservative</span> collisions, can be controlled either by the variation in the magnetic field strengths or by the angles between the fields. In addition, it is shown that the phenomena of ionization cooling and/or attachment cooling/heating previously reported for dc electric fields carry over directly to the crossed electric and magnetic fields. The results of the Boltzmann equation analysis are compared with those obtained by a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The comparison confirms the theoretical basis and numerical integrity of the moment method for solving the Boltzmann equation and gives a set of well-established data that can be used to test future codes and plasma <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.G24A..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.G24A..06M"><span id="translatedtitle">Constraining the Kinematics of the A.D. 900 Seattle Fault <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> With Geomechanical <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and LIDAR Surface Elevation Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Muller, J. R.; Harding, D. J.</p> <p>2005-05-01</p> <p>Within the Puget Sound region of Washington State, several lines of geological evidence suggest that the largest upper-crustal <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> within the past 2500 years occurred on the Seattle fault system in A.D. 900. Constraining the rupture characteristics of this event is of singular importance in evaluating the upper-bound seismic hazard and tsunami threat posed by upper-crustal (non-subduction) <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> to the Puget Lowland region. It is only possible to <span class="hlt">model</span> the fault geometry, slip distribution, and moment magnitude of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> with a data set of the surface elevation changes caused by this event. Due to the historic age of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>, we use elevations of an uplifted marine terrace, digitally extracted from LIDAR images, as a novel source of coseismic surface deformation data for this event. Ideal for this forested region, LIDAR images, acquired via airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM), offer a drastic improvement over earlier topographic mapping techniques due to its improved resolution and its ability to measure the ground surface beneath dense vegetative cover. The LIDAR images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, that is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach nine meters and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. Although the terrace is locally offset and tilted near the Toe Jam Hill and Waterman north-dipping, reverse fault scarps, the regional uplift pattern is a doubly-plunging antiform with steepened north limb, consistent with its location directly above</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S42B0634M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.S42B0634M"><span id="translatedtitle">New thermo-kinetic <span class="hlt">models</span> of olivine metastability in subducting lithosphere: implications for deep-focus <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mosenfelder, J. L.; Marton, F. C.; Rubie, D. C.</p> <p>2001-12-01</p> <p>A shear instability postulated to occur during the transformation of metastable olivine to its high-pressure polymorphs, wadsleyite and ringwoodite, has been proposed as the mechanism for deep-focus <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>. In order to evaluate this possibility we have formulated updated thermo-kinetic <span class="hlt">models</span> to predict the amount of metastable olivine in a variety of subduction zones. Our <span class="hlt">models</span> use newly derived activation energy parameters based on recent experiments in the (Mg,Fe)2SiO4 system, and we incorporate latent heat feedback due to the transformation into both the kinetics and the thermal <span class="hlt">model</span>. We also consider the effects of transformation stress on growth kinetics and intracrystalline transformation, previously thought to be important only at high shear stresses. Our <span class="hlt">modeling</span> predicts substantially smaller metastable olivine wedges than previous <span class="hlt">models</span> that did not properly account for latent heat (Kirby et al., 1996) or used older kinetic parameters (e.g. Daessler et al., 1996; Devaux et al., 1997). Results of <span class="hlt">models</span> considering only grain boundary nucleation and growth include the following: 1) In subduction zones with a thermal parameter (φ = vertical convergence rate ¥ age of the lithosphere at the trench) less than ~5000 km, no significant metastable olivine wedge develops; this includes the Nazca subduction zone, in which the 1994 Bolivian <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> occurred at a depth of 630 km. 2) For subduction zones such as Izu-Bonin, the Marianas, and Eastern Indonesia, with φ in the range 6000-10000 km, our <span class="hlt">models</span> predict a maximum depth of metastability of 450-500 km. The maximum depths of <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> in these subduction zones are, respectively, 550, 670 and 670 km (e.g., Kirby et al, 1996). 3) In Tonga, the subduction zone with the most rapid convergence rates on Earth, an olivine wedge may persist to depths >660 km only if trench rollback (due to back-arc spreading) is taken into account. This depth is reduced by 80-120 km if trench rollback is not considered</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.C11A0657D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.C11A0657D"><span id="translatedtitle">Simple <span class="hlt">models</span> for intermittent deformation and slip avalanches: from crystals to granular materials and <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dahmen, K.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Uhl, J.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Slowly sheared solid or densely packed granular materials often deform in an intermittent way with slip avalanches. The distribution of sizes follows often a power law over a broad range of sizes. In these cases, universal (i.e. detail-independent) scaling behavior governs the statistics of the slip-avalanches. Under some conditions, there are also "characteristic" statistics associated with enhanced occurrence of system-size events, and long-term mode switching between power law and characteristic behavior. These dynamic regimes can be understood with basic micromechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> for deformation of solids with only two tuning parameter: weakening and dissipation of elastic stress transfer. For granular materials the packing fraction plays the role of the dissipation parameter and it sets the size of the largest slip avalanche. The <span class="hlt">model</span> can reproduce observed stress-strain curves, power spectra of acoustic emissions, statistics of slip avalanches, and geometrical properties of slip, with a continuous phase transition from brittle to ductile behavior. Exact universal predictions for the power law exponents of the avalanche size distributions, durations, power spectra of acoustic emissions, and scaling functions are extracted using an analytical mean field theory and renormalization group tools. For granular materials a dynamic phase diagram with solid-like behavior and large slip avalanches at large packing fractions, and fluid-like behavior at lower packing fractions is obtained. The results agree with recent experimental observations and simulations of the statistics of dislocation dynamics in sheared crystals such as ice [1], slip avalanches in sheared granular materials [2], and avalanches in magnetic and fault systems [3,4]. [1] K. A. Dahmen, Y. Ben-Zion, and J.T. Uhl, "A micromechanical <span class="hlt">model</span> for deformation in solids with universal predictions for stress strain curves and slip avalanches", Physical Review Letters 102, 175501/1-4 (2009). [2] K. A. Dahmen, Y</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.tmp...71T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PApGe.tmp...71T"><span id="translatedtitle">Dynamic Rupture <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> of the 1999 Düzce, Turkey <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tanırcan, Gülüm; Dalguer, Luis; Bekler, Feyza Nur; Meral Özel, Nurcan</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>The dynamic rupture process and near-source ground motion of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Düzce <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> are simulated. The fault rupture is governed by the slip-weakening friction <span class="hlt">model</span> coupled to a three-dimensional viscoelastic wave equation. The problem is solved numerically by a 3-D dynamic rupture code that uses a generalized finite difference method. Initial parameterization of stress drop (Δ τ ) and strength excess (S_{e}) for dynamic rupture calculations is obtained from the slip velocity distribution of a kinematic waveform inversion (KI) <span class="hlt">model</span> by solving the elastodynamic equation with the kinematic slip as a boundary condition. Using the kinematic slip distribution and observed ground motion as constraints, a trial and error procedure was followed to define the stress parameterization. Preferred <span class="hlt">model</span> describes the source in terms of stress with three asperities (located, respectively, at the deep, middle and shallow) and strong barriers between asperities. S_{e} is as high as 19 Mpa at barriers between the three asperities and Δ τ is maximum about 40 Mpa at the deepest asperity. This heterogeneity in stress distribution produces abrupt jumps in rupture velocity, exhibiting locally apparent rupture speed exceeding the P wave velocity at the borders between barriers and asperities, due to sharp changes of fault strength and stress drop at those areas. Overall, consistent with other studies, the rupture propagation is dominated by supershear speed toward the eastern asperities and at shallow surface. Simulated surface rupture at the eastern fault is consistent with other studies; nevertheless, the western shallower parts did not rupture during the simulation, suggesting that those regions may have already broken during the 1999 Kocaeli event, which occurred three months earlier. Ground motion simulation catches the major characteristics of the observed waveforms. Distribution of simulated peak ground velocity (PGV) in low frequency (0.1-0.5 Hz.) inside the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S13C..03B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S13C..03B"><span id="translatedtitle">Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Activity Rate <span class="hlt">models</span> based on version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bird, P.; Kreemer, C.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Global <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Activity Rate (GEAR) <span class="hlt">models</span> have usually been based on either relative tectonic motion (fault slip rates and/or distributed strain rates), or on smoothing of seismic catalogs. However, a hybrid approach appears to perform better than either parent, at least in some retrospective tests. First, we construct a Tectonic ('T') forecast of shallow (≤ 70 km) seismicity based on global plate-boundary strain rates from version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map. Our approach is the SHIFT (Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics) method described by Bird et al. [2010, SRL], in which the character of the strain rate tensor (thrusting and/or strike-slip and/or normal) is used to select the most comparable type of plate boundary for calibration of the coupled seismogenic lithosphere thickness and corner magnitude. One difference is that activity of offshore plate boundaries is spatially smoothed using empirical half-widths [Bird & Kagan, 2004, BSSA] before conversion to seismicity. Another is that the velocity-dependence of coupling in subduction and continental-convergent boundaries [Bird et al., 2009, BSSA] is incorporated. Another forecast component is the smoothed-seismicity ('S') forecast <span class="hlt">model</span> of [Kagan & Jackson, 1994, JGR; Kagan & Jackson, 2010, GJI], which was based on optimized smoothing of the shallow part of the GCMT catalog, years 1977-2004. Both forecasts were prepared for threshold magnitude 5.767. Then, we create hybrid forecasts by one of 3 methods: (a) taking the greater of S or T; (b) simple weighted-average of S and T; or (c) log of the forecast rate is a weighted average of the logs of S and T. In methods (b) and (c) there is one free parameter, which is the fractional contribution from S. All hybrid forecasts are normalized to the same global rate. Pseudo-prospective tests for 2005-2012 (using versions of S and T calibrated on years 1977-2004) show that many hybrid <span class="hlt">models</span> outperform both parents (S and T), and that the optimal weight on S</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6648E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.6648E"><span id="translatedtitle">Turkish Compulsory <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Insurance (TCIP)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Erdik, M.; Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Through a World Bank project a government-sponsored Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool (TCIP) is created in 2000 with the essential aim of transferring the government's financial burden of replacing <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-damaged housing to international reinsurance and capital markets. Providing coverage to about 2.9 Million homeowners TCIP is the largest insurance program in the country with about 0.5 Billion USD in its own reserves and about 2.3 Billion USD in total claims paying capacity. The total payment for <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage since 2000 (mostly small, 226 <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>) amounts to about 13 Million USD. The country-wide penetration rate is about 22%, highest in the Marmara region (30%) and lowest in the south-east Turkey (9%). TCIP is the sole-source provider of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> loss coverage up to 90,000 USD per house. The annual premium, categorized on the basis of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> zones type of structure, is about US90 for a 100 square meter reinforced concrete building in the most hazardous zone with 2% deductible. The <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering related shortcomings of the TCIP is exemplified by fact that the average rate of 0.13% (for reinforced concrete buildings) with only 2% deductible is rather low compared to countries with similar <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> exposure. From an <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> engineering point of view the risk underwriting (Typification of housing units to be insured, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> intensity zonation and the sum insured) of the TCIP needs to be overhauled. Especially for large cities, <span class="hlt">models</span> can be developed where its expected <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> performance (and consequently the insurance premium) can be can be assessed on the basis of the location of the unit (microzoned <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> hazard) and basic structural attributes (<span class="hlt">earthquake</span> vulnerability relationships). With such an approach, in the future the TCIP can contribute to the control of construction through differentiation of premia on the basis of <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> vulnerability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027729','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027729"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> fracture energy inferred from kinematic rupture <span class="hlt">models</span> on extended faults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Tinti, E.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>We estimate fracture energy on extended faults for several recent <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> by retrieving dynamic traction evolution at each point on the fault plane from slip history imaged by inverting ground motion waveforms. We define the breakdown work (Wb) as the excess of work over some minimum traction level achieved during slip. Wb is equivalent to "seismological" fracture energy (G) in previous investigations. Our numerical approach uses slip velocity as a boundary condition on the fault. We employ a three-dimensional finite difference algorithm to compute the dynamic traction evolution in the time domain during the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> rupture. We estimate Wb by calculating the scalar product between dynamic traction and slip velocity vectors. This approach does not require specifying a constitutive law and assuming dynamic traction to be collinear with slip velocity. If these vectors are not collinear, the inferred breakdown work depends on the initial traction level. We show that breakdown work depends on the square of slip. The spatial distribution of breakdown work in a single <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is strongly correlated with the slip distribution. Breakdown work density and its integral over the fault, breakdown energy, scale with seismic moment according to a power law (with exponent 0.59 and 1.18, respectively). Our estimates of breakdown work range between 4 ?? 105 and 2 ?? 107 J/m2 for <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> having moment magnitudes between 5.6 and 7.2. We also compare our inferred values with geologic surface energies. This comparison might suggest that breakdown work for large <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span> goes primarily into heat production. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995PhRvE..51..204F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995PhRvE..51..204F"><span id="translatedtitle">Gaussian approach for phase ordering in <span class="hlt">nonconserved</span> scalar systems with long-range interactions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Filipe, J. A. N.; Bray, A. J.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>We have applied the Gaussian auxiliary field method to a <span class="hlt">nonconserved</span> scalar system with attractive long-range interactions, falling off with distance as 1/rd+σ, where d is the spatial dimension and 0<σ<2. This study provides a test bed for the approach and shows some of the difficulties encountered in constructing a closed equation for the pair correlation function. For the relation φ=φ(m) between the order parameter φ and the auxiliary field m, the usual choice of the equilibrium interfacial profile is made. The equation obtained for the equal-time two-point correlation function is studied in the limiting cases of small and large values of the scaling variable. A Porod regime at short distance and an asymptotic power-law decay at large distance are obtained. The theory is not, however, consistent with the expected growth law and attempts to retrieve the correct growth lead to inconsistencies. These results indicate a failure of the Gaussian assumption for this system, when used in the context of the bulk dynamics. This statement holds at least within the present form of the mapping φ=φ(m), which appears to be the most natural choice, as well as the one consistent with the emergence of the Porod regime. By contrast, Ohta and Hayakawa have recenlty succeeded in implementing a Gaussian approach based on the interfacial dynamics of this system [Physica A 204, 482 (1994)]. This clearly suggests that, beyond the simplicity of short-range ``<span class="hlt">model</span> A'' dynamics, a Gaussian approach can only capture the essential physical features if the crucial role of wall motion in domain growth is explicitly considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CSR...110..183S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CSR...110..183S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Non-conservative</span> behavior of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) within a subterranean estuary</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Suryaputra, I. G. N. A.; Santos, I. R.; Huettel, M.; Burnett, W. C.; Dittmar, T.</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>The role of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in releasing fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) to the coastal ocean and the possibility of using FDOM as a proxy for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was investigated in a subterranean estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (Turkey Point, Florida). FDOM was continuously monitored for three weeks in shallow beach groundwater and in the adjacent coastal ocean. Radon (222Rn) was used as a natural groundwater tracer. FDOM and DOC correlated in groundwater and seawater samples, implying that FDOM may be a proxy of DOC in waters influenced by SGD. A mixing <span class="hlt">model</span> using salinity as a seawater tracer revealed FDOM production in the high salinity region of the subterranean estuary. This production was probably a result of infiltration and transformation of labile marine organic matter in the beach sediments. The <span class="hlt">non-conservative</span> FDOM behavior in this subterranean estuary differs from most surface estuaries where FDOM typically behaves conservatively. At the study site, fresh and saline SGD delivered about 1800 mg d-1 of FDOM (quinine equivalents) to the coastal ocean per meter of shoreline. About 11% of this input was related to fresh SGD, while 89% were related to saline SGD resulting from FDOM production within the shallow aquifer. If these fluxes are representative of the Florida Gulf Coast, SGD-derived FDOM fluxes would be equivalent to at least 18% of the potential regional riverine FDOM inputs. To reduce uncertainties related to the scarcity of FDOM data, further investigations of river and groundwater FDOM inputs in Florida and elsewhere are necessary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S23A2115B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.S23A2115B"><span id="translatedtitle">Efficient Numerical <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Slow-Slip and Quasi-Dynamic <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> Ruptures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bradley, A. M.; Segall, P.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>Motivated by the hypothesis that dilatancy plays a critical role in faulting in subduction zones, we are developing FDRA, a software package to simulate two-dimensional quasi-dynamic faulting that includes rate-state friction, thermal pressurization, dilatancy (following Segall and Rice [1995]), and flash heating [Rice, 2006]. FDRA accommodates full- and half-space <span class="hlt">models</span> of faults having physical properties that vary in both the fault and fault-normal dimensions. Simulations reveal generic behavior over a broad range of property values: a typical <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> cycle consists of a dynamic event (DE), a quiescent period, and then a long sequence of slow-slip events (SSE) preceding the next DE. The behavior for a <span class="hlt">model</span> of a subduction zone bears many similarities to SSE in Cascadia, as described in Segall and Bradley [this meeting]. Partial differential equations in pressure and temperature are solved on profiles normal to the fault. The diffusion equations are discretized in space using finite differences on a nonuniform mesh having greater density near the fault. The full system of equations is a semiexplicit index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE) in slip, state, fault zone porosity, pressure, and temperature. We integrate state, porosity, and slip explicitly; solve the stress-balance equation on the fault; and integrate pressure and temperature implicitly. For speed, we adaptively switch between this DAE time-integration technique and a pure-ODE approach; the latter is faster but less accurate. We use relative error control to calculate the time step adaptively over approximately twelve orders of magnitude. The nonlinear equations in pressure, temperature, and slip speed decouple by fault cell. Therefore, at each time stage, many relatively small nonlinear equations are solved rather than one large one. This decoupling is in itself faster and also provides opportunities for additional speedups. The primary work is solving linear systems associated with solving</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.4671B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.4671B"><span id="translatedtitle">Clustering and interpretation of local <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> tomography <span class="hlt">models</span> in the southern Dead Sea basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bauer, Klaus; Braeuer, Benjamin</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The Dead Sea transform (DST) marks the boundary between the Arabian and the African plates. Ongoing left-lateral relative plate motion and strike-slip deformation started in the Early Miocene (20 MA) and produced a total shift of 107 km until presence. The Dead Sea basin (DSB) located in the central part of the DST is one of the largest pull-apart basins in the world. It was formed from step-over of different fault strands at a major segment boundary of the transform fault system. The basin development was accompanied by deposition of clastics and evaporites and subsequent salt diapirism. Ongoing deformation within the basin and activity of the boundary faults are indicated by increased seismicity. The internal architecture of the DSB and the crustal structure around the DST were subject of several large scientific projects carried out since 2000. Here we report on a local <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> tomography study from the southern DSB. In 2006-2008, a dense seismic network consisting of 65 stations was operated for 18 months in the southern part of the DSB and surrounding regions. Altogether 530 well-constrained seismic events with 13,970 P- and 12,760 S-wave arrival times were used for a travel time inversion for Vp, Vp/Vs velocity structure and seismicity distribution. The work flow included 1D inversion, 2.5D and 3D tomography, and resolution analysis. We demonstrate a possible strategy how several tomographic <span class="hlt">models</span> such as Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs can be integrated for a combined lithological interpretation. We analyzed the tomographic <span class="hlt">models</span> derived by 2.5D inversion using neural network clustering techniques. The method allows us to identify major lithologies by their petrophysical signatures. Remapping the clusters into the subsurface reveals the distribution of basin sediments, prebasin sedimentary rocks, and crystalline basement. The DSB shows an asymmetric structure with thickness variation from 5 km in the west to 13 km in the east. Most importantly, a well-defined body</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8023S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8023S"><span id="translatedtitle">Shallow subsurface control on <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> damage patterns: first results from a 3D geological voxel <span class="hlt">model</span> study (Tokyo Lowland, Japan)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stafleu, Jan; Busschers, Freek; Tanabe, Susumu</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The Tokyo Lowland is situated in a Neogene sedimentary basin near the triple junction of the North American, Pacific, and Philippine tectonic plates. The basin is filled with Neogene and Quaternary sediments up to a thickness of 3 km. In the upper 70 m of the basin, thick sequences of soft Holocene sediments occur which are assumed to have played a key role in the spatial variation of damage intensity during the 1923 Kanto <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> (Magnitude 7.9 to 8.3). Historical records show this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> destroyed large parts of the Tokyo urban area which in that time was largely made up by wooden houses. Although the epicentre was 70 km to the southwest of Tokyo, severe damage occurred north of the city centre, presumably due to ground motion amplification in the soft Holocene sediments in the shallow subsurface. In order to assess the presumed relation between the damage pattern of the 1923 <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> and the occurrence of soft Holocene sediments in the shallow subsurface, we constructed a 3D geological voxel <span class="hlt">model</span> of the central part of the Tokyo Lowland. The <span class="hlt">model</span> was constructed using a methodology originally developed for the lowlands of the Netherlands. The <span class="hlt">modelling</span> workflow basically consists of three steps. First, some 10,000 borehole descriptions (gathered for geomechanical purposes), were subdivided into geological units that have uniform sediment characteristics, using both lithological and geomechanical (N-value) criteria. Second, 2D bounding surfaces were constructed, representing tops and bases of the geological units. These surfaces were used to place each voxel (100 by 100 by 1 m) within the correct geological unit. The N-values and lithological units in the borehole descriptions were subsequently used to perform a 3D stochastic interpolation of N-value and lithological class within each geological unit. Using a vertical voxel stack analysis, we were able to create a map showing the accumulated thickness of soft muds in the Holocene succession. A</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009PhDT........40O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009PhDT........40O"><span id="translatedtitle">An <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> transient method for pebble-bed reactors and a fuel temperature <span class="hlt">model</span> for TRISO fueled reactors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ortensi, Javier</p> <p></p> <p>This investigation is divided into two general topics: (1) a new method for analyzing the safe shutdown <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> event in a pebble bed reactor core, and (2) the development of an explicit tristructural-isotropic fuel <span class="hlt">model</span> for high temperature reactors. The safe shutdown <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> event is one of the design basis accidents for the pebble bed reactor. The new method captures the dynamic geometric compaction of the pebble bed core. The neutronic and thermal-fluids grids are dynamically re-meshed to simulate the re-arrangement of the pebbles in the reactor during the <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. Results are shown for the PBMR-400 assuming it is subjected to the Idaho National Laboratory's design basis <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The study concludes that the PBMR-400 can safely withstand the reactivity insertions induced by the slumping of the core and the resulting relative withdrawal of the control rods. This characteristic stems from the large negative Doppler feedback of the fuel. This Doppler feedback mechanism is a major contributor to the passive safety of gas-cooled, graphite-moderated, high-temperature reactors that use fuel based on TRISO particles. The correct prediction of the magnitude and time-dependence of this feedback effect is essential to the conduct of safety analyses for these reactors. An explicit TRISO fuel temperature <span class="hlt">model</span> named THETRIS has been developed in this work and incorporated in the CYNOD-THERMIX-KONVEK suite of coupled codes. The new <span class="hlt">model</span> yields similar results to those obtained with more complex methods, requiring multi-TRISO calculations within one control volume. The performance of the code during fast and moderately-slow transients is verified. These analyses show how explicit TRISO <span class="hlt">models</span> improve the predictions of the fuel temperature, and consequently, of the power escalation. In addition, a brief study of the potential effects on the transient behavior of high-temperature reactors due to the presence of a gap inside the TRISO particles is included</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......110T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......110T"><span id="translatedtitle">Methods, Computational Platform, Verification, and Application of <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span>-Soil-Structure-Interaction <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and Simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tafazzoli, Nima</p> <p></p> <p>Seismic response of soil-structure systems has attracted significant attention for a long time. This is quite understandable with the size and the complexity of soil-structure systems. The focus of three important aspects of ESSI <span class="hlt">modeling</span> could be on consistent following of input seismic energy and a number of energy dissipation mechanisms within the system, numerical techniques used to simulate dynamics of ESSI, and influence of uncertainty of ESSI simulations. This dissertation is a contribution to development of one such tool called ESSI Simulator. The work is being done on extensive verified and validated suite for ESSI Simulator. Verification and validation are important for high fidelity numerical predictions of behavior of complex systems. This simulator uses finite element method as a numerical tool to obtain solutions for large class of engineering problems such as liquefaction, <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>-soil-structure-interaction, site effect, piles, pile group, probabilistic plasticity, stochastic elastic-plastic FEM, and detailed large scale parallel <span class="hlt">models</span>. Response of full three-dimensional soil-structure-interaction simulation of complex structures is evaluated under the 3D wave propagation. Domain-Reduction-Method is used for applying the forces as a two-step procedure for dynamic analysis with the goal of reducing the large size computational domain. The issue of damping of the waves at the boundary of the finite element <span class="hlt">models</span> is studied using different damping patterns. This is used at the layer of elements outside of the Domain-Reduction-Method zone in order to absorb the residual waves coming out of the boundary layer due to structural excitation. Extensive parametric study is done on dynamic soil-structure-interaction of a complex system and results of different cases in terms of soil strength and foundation embedment are compared. High efficiency set of constitutive <span class="hlt">models</span> in terms of computational time are developed and implemented in ESSI Simulator</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.T51F..06B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.T51F..06B"><span id="translatedtitle">Using Satellite Gravity to Map and <span class="hlt">Model</span> Forearc Basins and Thickness of Trench Sediment Worldwide: Implications for Great <span class="hlt">Earthquakes</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Blakely, R. J.; Scholl, D. W.; Wells, R. E.; von Huene, R.; Barckhausen, U.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p> suitable proxy for high-quality marine gravity data. A new compilation of shipboard gravity data from west of Central America (Barckhausen et al., 1998; 2003) affords an excellent opportunity to make this determination. A statistical comparison of satellite and shipboard datasets offshore Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama found average agreement to within 1 mGal and absolute agreement to within 5 mGal everywhere, except very near the coast where errors can be significantly larger. The Sandino forearc basin offshore Nicaragua, for example, is well imaged by satellite gravity anomalies. A preliminary <span class="hlt">model</span> based strictly on satellite gravity anomalies indicates that the Sandino basin is 7 to 9 km deep, assuming an average density of 2520 kg/m3 for basin fill, a depth that is consistent with multichannel seismic-reflection studies. Most important to future studies of megathrust <span class="hlt">earthquakes</span>, our comparison shows that conclusions regarding forearc basins would be virtually the same whether drawn from satellite or high-quality shipboard gravity data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S23A2463A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.S23A2463A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Wave Propagation in the Osaka Sedimentary Basin during the 2013 Awaji Island <span class="hlt">Earthquake</span> (Mw5.8)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Asano, K.; Sekiguchi, H.; Iwata, T.; Yoshimi, M.; Hayashida, T.; Saomoto, H.; Horikawa, H.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The three-dimensional velocity structure <span class="hlt">model</span> for the Osaka sedimentary basin, southwest Japan is developed and improved based on many kinds of geophysical explorations for decades (e.g., Kagawa et al., 1993; Horikawa et al., 2003; Iwata et al., 2008). Recently, our project (Sekiguchi et al., 2013) developed a new three-dimensional velocity <span class="hlt">model</span> for strong motion prediction of the Uemachi fault <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> in the Osaka basin considering both geophysical and geological information by adding newly obtained exploration data such as reflection surveys, microtremor surveys, and receiver function analysis (hereafter we call UMC2013 <span class="hlt">model</span>) . On April 13, 2013, an inland <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> of Mw5.8 occurred in Awaji Island, which is close to the southwestern boundary of the aftershock area of the 1995 Kobe <span class="hlt">earthquake</span>. The strong ground motions are densely observed at more than 100 stations in the basin. The ground motion lasted longer than four minutes in the Osaka urban area where its bedrock depth is about 1-2 km. This long-duration ground motions are mainly due to the surface waves excited in this sedimentary basin whereas the magnitude of this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> is moderate and the rupture duration is expected to be less than 5 s. In this study, we <span class="hlt">modeled</span> long-period (more than 2s) ground motions during this <span class="hlt">earthquake</span> to check the performance of the present UMC2013 <span class="hlt">model</span> and to obtain a better constraint on the attenuation factor of sedimentary part of the basin. The seismic wave propagation in the region including the source and the Osaka basin is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by the finite difference method using the staggered grid solving the elasto-dynamic equations. The domain of 90km×85km×25.5km is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> and discretized with a grid spacing of 50 m. Since the minimum S-wave velocity of the UMC2013 <span class="hlt">model</span> is about 250 m/s, this calculation is valid up to the period of about 1 s. The effect of attenuation is included in the form of Q(f)=Q0(T0/T) proposed by Graves (1996). A PML is implemented in</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/facts.php','NIH-MEDLINEPLUS'); return false;" href="https://earthquake.u