Improving near-infrared prediction model robustness with support vector machine regression: a pharmaceutical tablet assay example.

PubMed

Igne, Benoît; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2014-01-01

Changes in raw materials and process wear and tear can have significant effects on the prediction error of near-infrared calibration models. When the variability that is present during routine manufacturing is not included in the calibration, test, and validation sets, the long-term performance and robustness of the model will be limited. Nonlinearity is a major source of interference. In near-infrared spectroscopy, nonlinearity can arise from light path-length differences that can come from differences in particle size or density. The usefulness of support vector machine (SVM) regression to handle nonlinearity and improve the robustness of calibration models in scenarios where the calibration set did not include all the variability present in test was evaluated. Compared to partial least squares (PLS) regression, SVM regression was less affected by physical (particle size) and chemical (moisture) differences. The linearity of the SVM predicted values was also improved. Nevertheless, although visualization and interpretation tools have been developed to enhance the usability of SVM-based methods, work is yet to be done to provide chemometricians in the pharmaceutical industry with a regression method that can supplement PLS-based methods.

Order Selection for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive Model Based on Multivariate Stepwise Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen

2017-12-01

An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.

QSRR modeling for diverse drugs using different feature selection methods coupled with linear and nonlinear regressions.

PubMed

Goodarzi, Mohammad; Jensen, Richard; Vander Heyden, Yvan

2012-12-01

A Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationship (QSRR) is proposed to estimate the chromatographic retention of 83 diverse drugs on a Unisphere poly butadiene (PBD) column, using isocratic elutions at pH 11.7. Previous work has generated QSRR models for them using Classification And Regression Trees (CART). In this work, Ant Colony Optimization is used as a feature selection method to find the best molecular descriptors from a large pool. In addition, several other selection methods have been applied, such as Genetic Algorithms, Stepwise Regression and the Relief method, not only to evaluate Ant Colony Optimization as a feature selection method but also to investigate its ability to find the important descriptors in QSRR. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) were applied as linear and nonlinear regression methods, respectively, giving excellent correlation between the experimental, i.e. extrapolated to a mobile phase consisting of pure water, and predicted logarithms of the retention factors of the drugs (logk(w)). The overall best model was the SVM one built using descriptors selected by ACO. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for nonlinear exponential regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Junkin, B. G.

1971-01-01

A computer-oriented technique is presented for performing a nonlinear exponential regression analysis on decay-type experimental data. The technique involves the least squares procedure wherein the nonlinear problem is linearized by expansion in a Taylor series. A linear curve fitting procedure for determining the initial nominal estimates for the unknown exponential model parameters is included as an integral part of the technique. A correction matrix was derived and then applied to the nominal estimate to produce an improved set of model parameters. The solution cycle is repeated until some predetermined criterion is satisfied.

A Comparative Investigation of the Combined Effects of Pre-Processing, Wavelength Selection, and Regression Methods on Near-Infrared Calibration Model Performance.

PubMed

Wan, Jian; Chen, Yi-Chieh; Morris, A Julian; Thennadil, Suresh N

2017-07-01

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is being widely used in various fields ranging from pharmaceutics to the food industry for analyzing chemical and physical properties of the substances concerned. Its advantages over other analytical techniques include available physical interpretation of spectral data, nondestructive nature and high speed of measurements, and little or no need for sample preparation. The successful application of NIR spectroscopy relies on three main aspects: pre-processing of spectral data to eliminate nonlinear variations due to temperature, light scattering effects and many others, selection of those wavelengths that contribute useful information, and identification of suitable calibration models using linear/nonlinear regression . Several methods have been developed for each of these three aspects and many comparative studies of different methods exist for an individual aspect or some combinations. However, there is still a lack of comparative studies for the interactions among these three aspects, which can shed light on what role each aspect plays in the calibration and how to combine various methods of each aspect together to obtain the best calibration model. This paper aims to provide such a comparative study based on four benchmark data sets using three typical pre-processing methods, namely, orthogonal signal correction (OSC), extended multiplicative signal correction (EMSC) and optical path-length estimation and correction (OPLEC); two existing wavelength selection methods, namely, stepwise forward selection (SFS) and genetic algorithm optimization combined with partial least squares regression for spectral data (GAPLSSP); four popular regression methods, namely, partial least squares (PLS), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The comparative study indicates that, in general, pre-processing of spectral data can play a significant role in the calibration while wavelength selection plays a marginal role and the combination of certain pre-processing, wavelength selection, and nonlinear regression methods can achieve superior performance over traditional linear regression-based calibration.

Cocaine Dependence Treatment Data: Methods for Measurement Error Problems With Predictors Derived From Stationary Stochastic Processes

PubMed Central

Guan, Yongtao; Li, Yehua; Sinha, Rajita

2011-01-01

In a cocaine dependence treatment study, we use linear and nonlinear regression models to model posttreatment cocaine craving scores and first cocaine relapse time. A subset of the covariates are summary statistics derived from baseline daily cocaine use trajectories, such as baseline cocaine use frequency and average daily use amount. These summary statistics are subject to estimation error and can therefore cause biased estimators for the regression coefficients. Unlike classical measurement error problems, the error we encounter here is heteroscedastic with an unknown distribution, and there are no replicates for the error-prone variables or instrumental variables. We propose two robust methods to correct for the bias: a computationally efficient method-of-moments-based method for linear regression models and a subsampling extrapolation method that is generally applicable to both linear and nonlinear regression models. Simulations and an application to the cocaine dependence treatment data are used to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methods. Asymptotic theory and variance estimation for the proposed subsampling extrapolation method and some additional simulation results are described in the online supplementary material. PMID:21984854

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Quadratic Effects in Nonlinear Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harring, Jeffrey R.; Weiss, Brandi A.; Hsu, Jui-Chen

2012-01-01

Two Monte Carlo simulations were performed to compare methods for estimating and testing hypotheses of quadratic effects in latent variable regression models. The methods considered in the current study were (a) a 2-stage moderated regression approach using latent variable scores, (b) an unconstrained product indicator approach, (c) a latent…

Combined genetic algorithm and multiple linear regression (GA-MLR) optimizer: Application to multi-exponential fluorescence decay surface.

PubMed

Fisz, Jacek J

2006-12-07

The optimization approach based on the genetic algorithm (GA) combined with multiple linear regression (MLR) method, is discussed. The GA-MLR optimizer is designed for the nonlinear least-squares problems in which the model functions are linear combinations of nonlinear functions. GA optimizes the nonlinear parameters, and the linear parameters are calculated from MLR. GA-MLR is an intuitive optimization approach and it exploits all advantages of the genetic algorithm technique. This optimization method results from an appropriate combination of two well-known optimization methods. The MLR method is embedded in the GA optimizer and linear and nonlinear model parameters are optimized in parallel. The MLR method is the only one strictly mathematical "tool" involved in GA-MLR. The GA-MLR approach simplifies and accelerates considerably the optimization process because the linear parameters are not the fitted ones. Its properties are exemplified by the analysis of the kinetic biexponential fluorescence decay surface corresponding to a two-excited-state interconversion process. A short discussion of the variable projection (VP) algorithm, designed for the same class of the optimization problems, is presented. VP is a very advanced mathematical formalism that involves the methods of nonlinear functionals, algebra of linear projectors, and the formalism of Fréchet derivatives and pseudo-inverses. Additional explanatory comments are added on the application of recently introduced the GA-NR optimizer to simultaneous recovery of linear and weakly nonlinear parameters occurring in the same optimization problem together with nonlinear parameters. The GA-NR optimizer combines the GA method with the NR method, in which the minimum-value condition for the quadratic approximation to chi(2), obtained from the Taylor series expansion of chi(2), is recovered by means of the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The application of the GA-NR optimizer to model functions which are multi-linear combinations of nonlinear functions, is indicated. The VP algorithm does not distinguish the weakly nonlinear parameters from the nonlinear ones and it does not apply to the model functions which are multi-linear combinations of nonlinear functions.

Nonlinear Constitutive Modeling of Piezoelectric Ceramics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jia; Li, Chao; Wang, Haibo; Zhu, Zhiwen

2017-12-01

Nonlinear constitutive modeling of piezoelectric ceramics is discussed in this paper. Van der Pol item is introduced to explain the simple hysteretic curve. Improved nonlinear difference items are used to interpret the hysteresis phenomena of piezoelectric ceramics. The fitting effect of the model on experimental data is proved by the partial least-square regression method. The results show that this method can describe the real curve well. The results of this paper are helpful to piezoelectric ceramics constitutive modeling.

Multilayer Perceptron for Robust Nonlinear Interval Regression Analysis Using Genetic Algorithms

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

On the basis of fuzzy regression, computational models in intelligence such as neural networks have the capability to be applied to nonlinear interval regression analysis for dealing with uncertain and imprecise data. When training data are not contaminated by outliers, computational models perform well by including almost all given training data in the data interval. Nevertheless, since training data are often corrupted by outliers, robust learning algorithms employed to resist outliers for interval regression analysis have been an interesting area of research. Several approaches involving computational intelligence are effective for resisting outliers, but the required parameters for these approaches are related to whether the collected data contain outliers or not. Since it seems difficult to prespecify the degree of contamination beforehand, this paper uses multilayer perceptron to construct the robust nonlinear interval regression model using the genetic algorithm. Outliers beyond or beneath the data interval will impose slight effect on the determination of data interval. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well for contaminated datasets. PMID:25110755

Multilayer perceptron for robust nonlinear interval regression analysis using genetic algorithms.

PubMed

Hu, Yi-Chung

2014-01-01

On the basis of fuzzy regression, computational models in intelligence such as neural networks have the capability to be applied to nonlinear interval regression analysis for dealing with uncertain and imprecise data. When training data are not contaminated by outliers, computational models perform well by including almost all given training data in the data interval. Nevertheless, since training data are often corrupted by outliers, robust learning algorithms employed to resist outliers for interval regression analysis have been an interesting area of research. Several approaches involving computational intelligence are effective for resisting outliers, but the required parameters for these approaches are related to whether the collected data contain outliers or not. Since it seems difficult to prespecify the degree of contamination beforehand, this paper uses multilayer perceptron to construct the robust nonlinear interval regression model using the genetic algorithm. Outliers beyond or beneath the data interval will impose slight effect on the determination of data interval. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well for contaminated datasets.

Application of nonlinear least-squares regression to ground-water flow modeling, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yobbi, D.K.

2000-01-01

A nonlinear least-squares regression technique for estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to an existing model of the regional aquifer system underlying west-central Florida. The regression technique minimizes the differences between measured and simulated water levels. Regression statistics, including parameter sensitivities and correlations, were calculated for reported parameter values in the existing model. Optimal parameter values for selected hydrologic variables of interest are estimated by nonlinear regression. Optimal estimates of parameter values are about 140 times greater than and about 0.01 times less than reported values. Independently estimating all parameters by nonlinear regression was impossible, given the existing zonation structure and number of observations, because of parameter insensitivity and correlation. Although the model yields parameter values similar to those estimated by other methods and reproduces the measured water levels reasonably accurately, a simpler parameter structure should be considered. Some possible ways of improving model calibration are to: (1) modify the defined parameter-zonation structure by omitting and/or combining parameters to be estimated; (2) carefully eliminate observation data based on evidence that they are likely to be biased; (3) collect additional water-level data; (4) assign values to insensitive parameters, and (5) estimate the most sensitive parameters first, then, using the optimized values for these parameters, estimate the entire data set.

Improved spatial regression analysis of diffusion tensor imaging for lesion detection during longitudinal progression of multiple sclerosis in individual subjects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bilan; Qiu, Xing; Zhu, Tong; Tian, Wei; Hu, Rui; Ekholm, Sven; Schifitto, Giovanni; Zhong, Jianhui

2016-03-01

Subject-specific longitudinal DTI study is vital for investigation of pathological changes of lesions and disease evolution. Spatial Regression Analysis of Diffusion tensor imaging (SPREAD) is a non-parametric permutation-based statistical framework that combines spatial regression and resampling techniques to achieve effective detection of localized longitudinal diffusion changes within the whole brain at individual level without a priori hypotheses. However, boundary blurring and dislocation limit its sensitivity, especially towards detecting lesions of irregular shapes. In the present study, we propose an improved SPREAD (dubbed improved SPREAD, or iSPREAD) method by incorporating a three-dimensional (3D) nonlinear anisotropic diffusion filtering method, which provides edge-preserving image smoothing through a nonlinear scale space approach. The statistical inference based on iSPREAD was evaluated and compared with the original SPREAD method using both simulated and in vivo human brain data. Results demonstrated that the sensitivity and accuracy of the SPREAD method has been improved substantially by adapting nonlinear anisotropic filtering. iSPREAD identifies subject-specific longitudinal changes in the brain with improved sensitivity, accuracy, and enhanced statistical power, especially when the spatial correlation is heterogeneous among neighboring image pixels in DTI.

An evaluation of bias in propensity score-adjusted non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Wan, Fei; Mitra, Nandita

2018-03-01

Propensity score methods are commonly used to adjust for observed confounding when estimating the conditional treatment effect in observational studies. One popular method, covariate adjustment of the propensity score in a regression model, has been empirically shown to be biased in non-linear models. However, no compelling underlying theoretical reason has been presented. We propose a new framework to investigate bias and consistency of propensity score-adjusted treatment effects in non-linear models that uses a simple geometric approach to forge a link between the consistency of the propensity score estimator and the collapsibility of non-linear models. Under this framework, we demonstrate that adjustment of the propensity score in an outcome model results in the decomposition of observed covariates into the propensity score and a remainder term. Omission of this remainder term from a non-collapsible regression model leads to biased estimates of the conditional odds ratio and conditional hazard ratio, but not for the conditional rate ratio. We further show, via simulation studies, that the bias in these propensity score-adjusted estimators increases with larger treatment effect size, larger covariate effects, and increasing dissimilarity between the coefficients of the covariates in the treatment model versus the outcome model.

Learning accurate and interpretable models based on regularized random forests regression

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many biology related research works combine data from multiple sources in an effort to understand the underlying problems. It is important to find and interpret the most important information from these sources. Thus it will be beneficial to have an effective algorithm that can simultaneously extract decision rules and select critical features for good interpretation while preserving the prediction performance. Methods In this study, we focus on regression problems for biological data where target outcomes are continuous. In general, models constructed from linear regression approaches are relatively easy to interpret. However, many practical biological applications are nonlinear in essence where we can hardly find a direct linear relationship between input and output. Nonlinear regression techniques can reveal nonlinear relationship of data, but are generally hard for human to interpret. We propose a rule based regression algorithm that uses 1-norm regularized random forests. The proposed approach simultaneously extracts a small number of rules from generated random forests and eliminates unimportant features. Results We tested the approach on some biological data sets. The proposed approach is able to construct a significantly smaller set of regression rules using a subset of attributes while achieving prediction performance comparable to that of random forests regression. Conclusion It demonstrates high potential in aiding prediction and interpretation of nonlinear relationships of the subject being studied. PMID:25350120

Linear and non-linear regression analysis for the sorption kinetics of methylene blue onto activated carbon.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth

2006-10-11

Batch kinetic experiments were carried out for the sorption of methylene blue onto activated carbon. The experimental kinetics were fitted to the pseudo first-order and pseudo second-order kinetics by linear and a non-linear method. The five different types of Ho pseudo second-order expression have been discussed. A comparison of linear least-squares method and a trial and error non-linear method of estimating the pseudo second-order rate kinetic parameters were examined. The sorption process was found to follow a both pseudo first-order kinetic and pseudo second-order kinetic model. Present investigation showed that it is inappropriate to use a type 1 and type pseudo second-order expressions as proposed by Ho and Blanachard et al. respectively for predicting the kinetic rate constants and the initial sorption rate for the studied system. Three correct possible alternate linear expressions (type 2 to type 4) to better predict the initial sorption rate and kinetic rate constants for the studied system (methylene blue/activated carbon) was proposed. Linear method was found to check only the hypothesis instead of verifying the kinetic model. Non-linear regression method was found to be the more appropriate method to determine the rate kinetic parameters.

Comparison of Linear and Non-linear Regression Analysis to Determine Pulmonary Pressure in Hyperthyroidism.

PubMed

Scarneciu, Camelia C; Sangeorzan, Livia; Rus, Horatiu; Scarneciu, Vlad D; Varciu, Mihai S; Andreescu, Oana; Scarneciu, Ioan

2017-01-01

This study aimed at assessing the incidence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) at newly diagnosed hyperthyroid patients and at finding a simple model showing the complex functional relation between pulmonary hypertension in hyperthyroidism and the factors causing it. The 53 hyperthyroid patients (H-group) were evaluated mainly by using an echocardiographical method and compared with 35 euthyroid (E-group) and 25 healthy people (C-group). In order to identify the factors causing pulmonary hypertension the statistical method of comparing the values of arithmetical means is used. The functional relation between the two random variables (PAPs and each of the factors determining it within our research study) can be expressed by linear or non-linear function. By applying the linear regression method described by a first-degree equation the line of regression (linear model) has been determined; by applying the non-linear regression method described by a second degree equation, a parabola-type curve of regression (non-linear or polynomial model) has been determined. We made the comparison and the validation of these two models by calculating the determination coefficient (criterion 1), the comparison of residuals (criterion 2), application of AIC criterion (criterion 3) and use of F-test (criterion 4). From the H-group, 47% have pulmonary hypertension completely reversible when obtaining euthyroidism. The factors causing pulmonary hypertension were identified: previously known- level of free thyroxin, pulmonary vascular resistance, cardiac output; new factors identified in this study- pretreatment period, age, systolic blood pressure. According to the four criteria and to the clinical judgment, we consider that the polynomial model (graphically parabola- type) is better than the linear one. The better model showing the functional relation between the pulmonary hypertension in hyperthyroidism and the factors identified in this study is given by a polynomial equation of second degree where the parabola is its graphical representation.

Parameter estimation of Monod model by the Least-Squares method for microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

See, J. J.; Jamaian, S. S.; Salleh, R. M.; Nor, M. E.; Aman, F.

2018-04-01

This research aims to estimate the parameters of Monod model of microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp growth by the Least-Squares method. Monod equation is a non-linear equation which can be transformed into a linear equation form and it is solved by implementing the Least-Squares linear regression method. Meanwhile, Gauss-Newton method is an alternative method to solve the non-linear Least-Squares problem with the aim to obtain the parameters value of Monod model by minimizing the sum of square error ( SSE). As the result, the parameters of the Monod model for microalgae Botryococcus Braunii sp can be estimated by the Least-Squares method. However, the estimated parameters value obtained by the non-linear Least-Squares method are more accurate compared to the linear Least-Squares method since the SSE of the non-linear Least-Squares method is less than the linear Least-Squares method.

Estimating monotonic rates from biological data using local linear regression.

PubMed

Olito, Colin; White, Craig R; Marshall, Dustin J; Barneche, Diego R

2017-03-01

Accessing many fundamental questions in biology begins with empirical estimation of simple monotonic rates of underlying biological processes. Across a variety of disciplines, ranging from physiology to biogeochemistry, these rates are routinely estimated from non-linear and noisy time series data using linear regression and ad hoc manual truncation of non-linearities. Here, we introduce the R package LoLinR, a flexible toolkit to implement local linear regression techniques to objectively and reproducibly estimate monotonic biological rates from non-linear time series data, and demonstrate possible applications using metabolic rate data. LoLinR provides methods to easily and reliably estimate monotonic rates from time series data in a way that is statistically robust, facilitates reproducible research and is applicable to a wide variety of research disciplines in the biological sciences. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Nonlinear least squares regression for single image scanning electron microscope signal-to-noise ratio estimation.

PubMed

Sim, K S; Norhisham, S

2016-11-01

A new method based on nonlinear least squares regression (NLLSR) is formulated to estimate signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of scanning electron microscope (SEM) images. The estimation of SNR value based on NLLSR method is compared with the three existing methods of nearest neighbourhood, first-order interpolation and the combination of both nearest neighbourhood and first-order interpolation. Samples of SEM images with different textures, contrasts and edges were used to test the performance of NLLSR method in estimating the SNR values of the SEM images. It is shown that the NLLSR method is able to produce better estimation accuracy as compared to the other three existing methods. According to the SNR results obtained from the experiment, the NLLSR method is able to produce approximately less than 1% of SNR error difference as compared to the other three existing methods. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2016 Royal Microscopical Society.

A step-by-step guide to non-linear regression analysis of experimental data using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet.

PubMed

Brown, A M

2001-06-01

The objective of this present study was to introduce a simple, easily understood method for carrying out non-linear regression analysis based on user input functions. While it is relatively straightforward to fit data with simple functions such as linear or logarithmic functions, fitting data with more complicated non-linear functions is more difficult. Commercial specialist programmes are available that will carry out this analysis, but these programmes are expensive and are not intuitive to learn. An alternative method described here is to use the SOLVER function of the ubiquitous spreadsheet programme Microsoft Excel, which employs an iterative least squares fitting routine to produce the optimal goodness of fit between data and function. The intent of this paper is to lead the reader through an easily understood step-by-step guide to implementing this method, which can be applied to any function in the form y=f(x), and is well suited to fast, reliable analysis of data in all fields of biology.

Nonlinear System Identification for Aeroelastic Systems with Application to Experimental Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.

2008-01-01

Representation and identification of a nonlinear aeroelastic pitch-plunge system as a model of the Nonlinear AutoRegressive, Moving Average eXogenous (NARMAX) class is considered. A nonlinear difference equation describing this aircraft model is derived theoretically and shown to be of the NARMAX form. Identification methods for NARMAX models are applied to aeroelastic dynamics and its properties demonstrated via continuous-time simulations of experimental conditions. Simulation results show that (1) the outputs of the NARMAX model closely match those generated using continuous-time methods, and (2) NARMAX identification methods applied to aeroelastic dynamics provide accurate discrete-time parameter estimates. Application of NARMAX identification to experimental pitch-plunge dynamics data gives a high percent fit for cross-validated data.

Revisiting tests for neglected nonlinearity using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Cho, Jin Seo; Ishida, Isao; White, Halbert

2011-05-01

Tests for regression neglected nonlinearity based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have so far been studied by separately analyzing the two ways in which the null of regression linearity can hold. This implies that the asymptotic behavior of general ANN-based tests for neglected nonlinearity is still an open question. Here we analyze a convenient ANN-based quasi-likelihood ratio statistic for testing neglected nonlinearity, paying careful attention to both components of the null. We derive the asymptotic null distribution under each component separately and analyze their interaction. Somewhat remarkably, it turns out that the previously known asymptotic null distribution for the type 1 case still applies, but under somewhat stronger conditions than previously recognized. We present Monte Carlo experiments corroborating our theoretical results and showing that standard methods can yield misleading inference when our new, stronger regularity conditions are violated.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-03-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

PubMed Central

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-01-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models.

PubMed

Shah, A A; Xing, W W; Triantafyllidis, V

2017-04-01

In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach.

Reduced-order modelling of parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear dynamic partial differential equation models

PubMed Central

Xing, W. W.; Triantafyllidis, V.

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop reduced-order models for dynamic, parameter-dependent, linear and nonlinear partial differential equations using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The main challenges are to accurately and efficiently approximate the POD bases for new parameter values and, in the case of nonlinear problems, to efficiently handle the nonlinear terms. We use a Bayesian nonlinear regression approach to learn the snapshots of the solutions and the nonlinearities for new parameter values. Computational efficiency is ensured by using manifold learning to perform the emulation in a low-dimensional space. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated on a linear and a nonlinear example, with comparisons with a global basis approach. PMID:28484327

Method and Excel VBA Algorithm for Modeling Master Recession Curve Using Trigonometry Approach.

PubMed

Posavec, Kristijan; Giacopetti, Marco; Materazzi, Marco; Birk, Steffen

2017-11-01

A new method was developed and implemented into an Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBAs) algorithm utilizing trigonometry laws in an innovative way to overlap recession segments of time series and create master recession curves (MRCs). Based on a trigonometry approach, the algorithm horizontally translates succeeding recession segments of time series, placing their vertex, that is, the highest recorded value of each recession segment, directly onto the appropriate connection line defined by measurement points of a preceding recession segment. The new method and algorithm continues the development of methods and algorithms for the generation of MRC, where the first published method was based on a multiple linear/nonlinear regression model approach (Posavec et al. 2006). The newly developed trigonometry-based method was tested on real case study examples and compared with the previously published multiple linear/nonlinear regression model-based method. The results show that in some cases, that is, for some time series, the trigonometry-based method creates narrower overlaps of the recession segments, resulting in higher coefficients of determination R 2 , while in other cases the multiple linear/nonlinear regression model-based method remains superior. The Excel VBA algorithm for modeling MRC using the trigonometry approach is implemented into a spreadsheet tool (MRCTools v3.0 written by and available from Kristijan Posavec, Zagreb, Croatia) containing the previously published VBA algorithms for MRC generation and separation. All algorithms within the MRCTools v3.0 are open access and available free of charge, supporting the idea of running science on available, open, and free of charge software. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

Hierarchical cluster-based partial least squares regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models.

PubMed

Tøndel, Kristin; Indahl, Ulf G; Gjuvsland, Arne B; Vik, Jon Olav; Hunter, Peter; Omholt, Stig W; Martens, Harald

2011-06-01

Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems.

Hierarchical Cluster-based Partial Least Squares Regression (HC-PLSR) is an efficient tool for metamodelling of nonlinear dynamic models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Deterministic dynamic models of complex biological systems contain a large number of parameters and state variables, related through nonlinear differential equations with various types of feedback. A metamodel of such a dynamic model is a statistical approximation model that maps variation in parameters and initial conditions (inputs) to variation in features of the trajectories of the state variables (outputs) throughout the entire biologically relevant input space. A sufficiently accurate mapping can be exploited both instrumentally and epistemically. Multivariate regression methodology is a commonly used approach for emulating dynamic models. However, when the input-output relations are highly nonlinear or non-monotone, a standard linear regression approach is prone to give suboptimal results. We therefore hypothesised that a more accurate mapping can be obtained by locally linear or locally polynomial regression. We present here a new method for local regression modelling, Hierarchical Cluster-based PLS regression (HC-PLSR), where fuzzy C-means clustering is used to separate the data set into parts according to the structure of the response surface. We compare the metamodelling performance of HC-PLSR with polynomial partial least squares regression (PLSR) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on various systems: six different gene regulatory network models with various types of feedback, a deterministic mathematical model of the mammalian circadian clock and a model of the mouse ventricular myocyte function. Results Our results indicate that multivariate regression is well suited for emulating dynamic models in systems biology. The hierarchical approach turned out to be superior to both polynomial PLSR and OLS regression in all three test cases. The advantage, in terms of explained variance and prediction accuracy, was largest in systems with highly nonlinear functional relationships and in systems with positive feedback loops. Conclusions HC-PLSR is a promising approach for metamodelling in systems biology, especially for highly nonlinear or non-monotone parameter to phenotype maps. The algorithm can be flexibly adjusted to suit the complexity of the dynamic model behaviour, inviting automation in the metamodelling of complex systems. PMID:21627852

On the use of log-transformation vs. nonlinear regression for analyzing biological power laws.

PubMed

Xiao, Xiao; White, Ethan P; Hooten, Mevin B; Durham, Susan L

2011-10-01

Power-law relationships are among the most well-studied functional relationships in biology. Recently the common practice of fitting power laws using linear regression (LR) on log-transformed data has been criticized, calling into question the conclusions of hundreds of studies. It has been suggested that nonlinear regression (NLR) is preferable, but no rigorous comparison of these two methods has been conducted. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the error distribution determines which method performs better, with NLR better characterizing data with additive, homoscedastic, normal error and LR better characterizing data with multiplicative, heteroscedastic, lognormal error. Analysis of 471 biological power laws shows that both forms of error occur in nature. While previous analyses based on log-transformation appear to be generally valid, future analyses should choose methods based on a combination of biological plausibility and analysis of the error distribution. We provide detailed guidelines and associated computer code for doing so, including a model averaging approach for cases where the error structure is uncertain.

Isotherm investigation for the sorption of fluoride onto Bio-F: comparison of linear and non-linear regression method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Manish; Singh, Nitin Kumar

2017-12-01

A comparison of the linear and non-linear regression method in selecting the optimum isotherm among three most commonly used adsorption isotherms (Langmuir, Freundlich, and Redlich-Peterson) was made to the experimental data of fluoride (F) sorption onto Bio-F at a solution temperature of 30 ± 1 °C. The coefficient of correlation (r2) was used to select the best theoretical isotherm among the investigated ones. A total of four Langmuir linear equations were discussed and out of which linear form of most popular Langmuir-1 and Langmuir-2 showed the higher coefficient of determination (0.976 and 0.989) as compared to other Langmuir linear equations. Freundlich and Redlich-Peterson isotherms showed a better fit to the experimental data in linear least-square method, while in non-linear method Redlich-Peterson isotherm equations showed the best fit to the tested data set. The present study showed that the non-linear method could be a better way to obtain the isotherm parameters and represent the most suitable isotherm. Redlich-Peterson isotherm was found to be the best representative (r2 = 0.999) for this sorption system. It is also observed that the values of β are not close to unity, which means the isotherms are approaching the Freundlich but not the Langmuir isotherm.

Advances in simultaneous atmospheric profile and cloud parameter regression based retrieval from high-spectral resolution radiance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisz, Elisabeth; Smith, William L.; Smith, Nadia

2013-06-01

The dual-regression (DR) method retrieves information about the Earth surface and vertical atmospheric conditions from measurements made by any high-spectral resolution infrared sounder in space. The retrieved information includes temperature and atmospheric gases (such as water vapor, ozone, and carbon species) as well as surface and cloud top parameters. The algorithm was designed to produce a high-quality product with low latency and has been demonstrated to yield accurate results in real-time environments. The speed of the retrieval is achieved through linear regression, while accuracy is achieved through a series of classification schemes and decision-making steps. These steps are necessary to account for the nonlinearity of hyperspectral retrievals. In this work, we detail the key steps that have been developed in the DR method to advance accuracy in the retrieval of nonlinear parameters, specifically cloud top pressure. The steps and their impact on retrieval results are discussed in-depth and illustrated through relevant case studies. In addition to discussing and demonstrating advances made in addressing nonlinearity in a linear geophysical retrieval method, advances toward multi-instrument geophysical analysis by applying the DR to three different operational sounders in polar orbit are also noted. For any area on the globe, the DR method achieves consistent accuracy and precision, making it potentially very valuable to both the meteorological and environmental user communities.

Prediction of Battery Life and Behavior from Analysis of Voltage Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcdermott, P. P.

1984-01-01

A method for simulating charge and discharge characteristics of secondary batteries is discussed. The analysis utilizes a nonlinear regression technique where empirical data is computer fitted with a five coefficient nonlinear equation. The equations for charge and discharge voltage are identical except for a change of sign before the second and third terms.

A new linear least squares method for T1 estimation from SPGR signals with multiple TRs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Lin-Ching; Koay, Cheng Guan; Basser, Peter J.; Pierpaoli, Carlo

2009-02-01

The longitudinal relaxation time, T1, can be estimated from two or more spoiled gradient recalled echo x (SPGR) images with two or more flip angles and one or more repetition times (TRs). The function relating signal intensity and the parameters are nonlinear; T1 maps can be computed from SPGR signals using nonlinear least squares regression. A widely-used linear method transforms the nonlinear model by assuming a fixed TR in SPGR images. This constraint is not desirable since multiple TRs are a clinically practical way to reduce the total acquisition time, to satisfy the required resolution, and/or to combine SPGR data acquired at different times. A new linear least squares method is proposed using the first order Taylor expansion. Monte Carlo simulations of SPGR experiments are used to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the estimated T1 from the proposed linear and the nonlinear methods. We show that the new linear least squares method provides T1 estimates comparable in both precision and accuracy to those from the nonlinear method, allowing multiple TRs and reducing computation time significantly.

TG study of the Li0.4Fe2.4Zn0.2O4 ferrite synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lysenko, E. N.; Nikolaev, E. V.; Surzhikov, A. P.

2016-02-01

In this paper, the kinetic analysis of Li-Zn ferrite synthesis was studied using thermogravimetry (TG) method through the simultaneous application of non-linear regression to several measurements run at different heating rates (multivariate non-linear regression). Using TG-curves obtained for the four heating rates and Netzsch Thermokinetics software package, the kinetic models with minimal adjustable parameters were selected to quantitatively describe the reaction of Li-Zn ferrite synthesis. It was shown that the experimental TG-curves clearly suggest a two-step process for the ferrite synthesis and therefore a model-fitting kinetic analysis based on multivariate non-linear regressions was conducted. The complex reaction was described by a two-step reaction scheme consisting of sequential reaction steps. It is established that the best results were obtained using the Yander three-dimensional diffusion model at the first stage and Ginstling-Bronstein model at the second step. The kinetic parameters for lithium-zinc ferrite synthesis reaction were found and discussed.

Applications of Monte Carlo method to nonlinear regression of rheological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sangmo; Lee, Junghaeng; Kim, Sihyun; Cho, Kwang Soo

2018-02-01

In rheological study, it is often to determine the parameters of rheological models from experimental data. Since both rheological data and values of the parameters vary in logarithmic scale and the number of the parameters is quite large, conventional method of nonlinear regression such as Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method is usually ineffective. The gradient-based method such as LM is apt to be caught in local minima which give unphysical values of the parameters whenever the initial guess of the parameters is far from the global optimum. Although this problem could be solved by simulated annealing (SA), the Monte Carlo (MC) method needs adjustable parameter which could be determined in ad hoc manner. We suggest a simplified version of SA, a kind of MC methods which results in effective values of the parameters of most complicated rheological models such as the Carreau-Yasuda model of steady shear viscosity, discrete relaxation spectrum and zero-shear viscosity as a function of concentration and molecular weight.

Linear and nonlinear regression techniques for simultaneous and proportional myoelectric control.

PubMed

Hahne, J M; Biessmann, F; Jiang, N; Rehbaum, H; Farina, D; Meinecke, F C; Muller, K-R; Parra, L C

2014-03-01

In recent years the number of active controllable joints in electrically powered hand-prostheses has increased significantly. However, the control strategies for these devices in current clinical use are inadequate as they require separate and sequential control of each degree-of-freedom (DoF). In this study we systematically compare linear and nonlinear regression techniques for an independent, simultaneous and proportional myoelectric control of wrist movements with two DoF. These techniques include linear regression, mixture of linear experts (ME), multilayer-perceptron, and kernel ridge regression (KRR). They are investigated offline with electro-myographic signals acquired from ten able-bodied subjects and one person with congenital upper limb deficiency. The control accuracy is reported as a function of the number of electrodes and the amount and diversity of training data providing guidance for the requirements in clinical practice. The results showed that KRR, a nonparametric statistical learning method, outperformed the other methods. However, simple transformations in the feature space could linearize the problem, so that linear models could achieve similar performance as KRR at much lower computational costs. Especially ME, a physiologically inspired extension of linear regression represents a promising candidate for the next generation of prosthetic devices.

Comparison between Linear and Nonlinear Regression in a Laboratory Heat Transfer Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonçalves, Carine Messias; Schwaab, Marcio; Pinto, José Carlos

2013-01-01

In order to interpret laboratory experimental data, undergraduate students are used to perform linear regression through linearized versions of nonlinear models. However, the use of linearized models can lead to statistically biased parameter estimates. Even so, it is not an easy task to introduce nonlinear regression and show for the students…

Comparison of various error functions in predicting the optimum isotherm by linear and non-linear regression analysis for the sorption of basic red 9 by activated carbon.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth; Porkodi, K; Rocha, F

2008-01-15

A comparison of linear and non-linear regression method in selecting the optimum isotherm was made to the experimental equilibrium data of basic red 9 sorption by activated carbon. The r(2) was used to select the best fit linear theoretical isotherm. In the case of non-linear regression method, six error functions namely coefficient of determination (r(2)), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), Marquardt's percent standard deviation (MPSD), the average relative error (ARE), sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ) and sum of the absolute errors (EABS) were used to predict the parameters involved in the two and three parameter isotherms and also to predict the optimum isotherm. Non-linear regression was found to be a better way to obtain the parameters involved in the isotherms and also the optimum isotherm. For two parameter isotherm, MPSD was found to be the best error function in minimizing the error distribution between the experimental equilibrium data and predicted isotherms. In the case of three parameter isotherm, r(2) was found to be the best error function to minimize the error distribution structure between experimental equilibrium data and theoretical isotherms. The present study showed that the size of the error function alone is not a deciding factor to choose the optimum isotherm. In addition to the size of error function, the theory behind the predicted isotherm should be verified with the help of experimental data while selecting the optimum isotherm. A coefficient of non-determination, K(2) was explained and was found to be very useful in identifying the best error function while selecting the optimum isotherm.

Additivity of nonlinear biomass equations

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol

2001-01-01

Two procedures that guarantee the property of additivity among the components of tree biomass and total tree biomass utilizing nonlinear functions are developed. Procedure 1 is a simple combination approach, and procedure 2 is based on nonlinear joint-generalized regression (nonlinear seemingly unrelated regressions) with parameter restrictions. Statistical theory is...

Multi-Target Regression via Robust Low-Rank Learning.

PubMed

Zhen, Xiantong; Yu, Mengyang; He, Xiaofei; Li, Shuo

2018-02-01

Multi-target regression has recently regained great popularity due to its capability of simultaneously learning multiple relevant regression tasks and its wide applications in data mining, computer vision and medical image analysis, while great challenges arise from jointly handling inter-target correlations and input-output relationships. In this paper, we propose Multi-layer Multi-target Regression (MMR) which enables simultaneously modeling intrinsic inter-target correlations and nonlinear input-output relationships in a general framework via robust low-rank learning. Specifically, the MMR can explicitly encode inter-target correlations in a structure matrix by matrix elastic nets (MEN); the MMR can work in conjunction with the kernel trick to effectively disentangle highly complex nonlinear input-output relationships; the MMR can be efficiently solved by a new alternating optimization algorithm with guaranteed convergence. The MMR leverages the strength of kernel methods for nonlinear feature learning and the structural advantage of multi-layer learning architectures for inter-target correlation modeling. More importantly, it offers a new multi-layer learning paradigm for multi-target regression which is endowed with high generality, flexibility and expressive ability. Extensive experimental evaluation on 18 diverse real-world datasets demonstrates that our MMR can achieve consistently high performance and outperforms representative state-of-the-art algorithms, which shows its great effectiveness and generality for multivariate prediction.

Inverse models: A necessary next step in ground-water modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

1997-01-01

Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares repression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.

Velocity Curve Analysis of Spectroscopic Binary Stars AI Phe, GM Dra, HD 93917 and V502 Oph by Nonlinear Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karami, K.; Mohebi, R.

2007-08-01

We introduce a new method to derive the orbital parameters of spectroscopic binary stars by nonlinear least squares of (o-c). Using the measured radial velocity data of the four double lined spectroscopic binary systems, AI Phe, GM Dra, HD 93917 and V502 Oph, we derived both the orbital and combined spectroscopic elements of these systems. Our numerical results are in good agreement with the those obtained using the method of Lehmann-Filhé.

Development of non-linear models predicting daily fine particle concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals and ground-based measurements at a municipality in the Brazilian Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonçalves, Karen dos Santos; Winkler, Mirko S.; Benchimol-Barbosa, Paulo Roberto; de Hoogh, Kees; Artaxo, Paulo Eduardo; de Souza Hacon, Sandra; Schindler, Christian; Künzli, Nino

2018-07-01

Epidemiological studies generally use particulate matter measurements with diameter less 2.5 μm (PM2.5) from monitoring networks. Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data has considerable potential in predicting PM2.5 concentrations, and thus provides an alternative method for producing knowledge regarding the level of pollution and its health impact in areas where no ground PM2.5 measurements are available. This is the case in the Brazilian Amazon rainforest region where forest fires are frequent sources of high pollution. In this study, we applied a non-linear model for predicting PM2.5 concentration from AOD retrievals using interaction terms between average temperature, relative humidity, sine, cosine of date in a period of 365,25 days and the square of the lagged relative residual. Regression performance statistics were tested comparing the goodness of fit and R2 based on results from linear regression and non-linear regression for six different models. The regression results for non-linear prediction showed the best performance, explaining on average 82% of the daily PM2.5 concentrations when considering the whole period studied. In the context of Amazonia, it was the first study predicting PM2.5 concentrations using the latest high-resolution AOD products also in combination with the testing of a non-linear model performance. Our results permitted a reliable prediction considering the AOD-PM2.5 relationship and set the basis for further investigations on air pollution impacts in the complex context of Brazilian Amazon Region.

On the use of log-transformation vs. nonlinear regression for analyzing biological power laws

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiao, X.; White, E.P.; Hooten, M.B.; Durham, S.L.

2011-01-01

Power-law relationships are among the most well-studied functional relationships in biology. Recently the common practice of fitting power laws using linear regression (LR) on log-transformed data has been criticized, calling into question the conclusions of hundreds of studies. It has been suggested that nonlinear regression (NLR) is preferable, but no rigorous comparison of these two methods has been conducted. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we demonstrate that the error distribution determines which method performs better, with NLR better characterizing data with additive, homoscedastic, normal error and LR better characterizing data with multiplicative, heteroscedastic, lognormal error. Analysis of 471 biological power laws shows that both forms of error occur in nature. While previous analyses based on log-transformation appear to be generally valid, future analyses should choose methods based on a combination of biological plausibility and analysis of the error distribution. We provide detailed guidelines and associated computer code for doing so, including a model averaging approach for cases where the error structure is uncertain. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Applications of Support Vector Machines In Chemo And Bioinformatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaraman, V. K.; Sundararajan, V.

2010-10-01

Conventional linear & nonlinear tools for classification, regression & data driven modeling are being replaced on a rapid scale by newer techniques & tools based on artificial intelligence and machine learning. While the linear techniques are not applicable for inherently nonlinear problems, newer methods serve as attractive alternatives for solving real life problems. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers are a set of universal feed-forward network based classification algorithms that have been formulated from statistical learning theory and structural risk minimization principle. SVM regression closely follows the classification methodology. In this work recent applications of SVM in Chemo & Bioinformatics will be described with suitable illustrative examples.

Nonlinear Simulation of the Tooth Enamel Spectrum for EPR Dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirillov, V. A.; Dubovsky, S. V.

2016-07-01

Software was developed where initial EPR spectra of tooth enamel were deconvoluted based on nonlinear simulation, line shapes and signal amplitudes in the model initial spectrum were calculated, the regression coefficient was evaluated, and individual spectra were summed. Software validation demonstrated that doses calculated using it agreed excellently with the applied radiation doses and the doses reconstructed by the method of additive doses.

Exact and Approximate Statistical Inference for Nonlinear Regression and the Estimating Equation Approach.

PubMed

Demidenko, Eugene

2017-09-01

The exact density distribution of the nonlinear least squares estimator in the one-parameter regression model is derived in closed form and expressed through the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal variable. Several proposals to generalize this result are discussed. The exact density is extended to the estimating equation (EE) approach and the nonlinear regression with an arbitrary number of linear parameters and one intrinsically nonlinear parameter. For a very special nonlinear regression model, the derived density coincides with the distribution of the ratio of two normally distributed random variables previously obtained by Fieller (1932), unlike other approximations previously suggested by other authors. Approximations to the density of the EE estimators are discussed in the multivariate case. Numerical complications associated with the nonlinear least squares are illustrated, such as nonexistence and/or multiple solutions, as major factors contributing to poor density approximation. The nonlinear Markov-Gauss theorem is formulated based on the near exact EE density approximation.

Modeling maximum daily temperature using a varying coefficient regression model

Treesearch

Han Li; Xinwei Deng; Dong-Yum Kim; Eric P. Smith

2014-01-01

Relationships between stream water and air temperatures are often modeled using linear or nonlinear regression methods. Despite a strong relationship between water and air temperatures and a variety of models that are effective for data summarized on a weekly basis, such models did not yield consistently good predictions for summaries such as daily maximum temperature...

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time‐to‐Event Analysis

PubMed Central

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng

2018-01-01

Abstract Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time‐to‐event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high‐dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML‐based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high‐dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML‐based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML‐based methods provide a powerful tool for time‐to‐event analysis, with a built‐in capacity for high‐dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. PMID:29536640

Missing-value estimation using linear and non-linear regression with Bayesian gene selection.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaobo; Wang, Xiaodong; Dougherty, Edward R

2003-11-22

Data from microarray experiments are usually in the form of large matrices of expression levels of genes under different experimental conditions. Owing to various reasons, there are frequently missing values. Estimating these missing values is important because they affect downstream analysis, such as clustering, classification and network design. Several methods of missing-value estimation are in use. The problem has two parts: (1) selection of genes for estimation and (2) design of an estimation rule. We propose Bayesian variable selection to obtain genes to be used for estimation, and employ both linear and nonlinear regression for the estimation rule itself. Fast implementation issues for these methods are discussed, including the use of QR decomposition for parameter estimation. The proposed methods are tested on data sets arising from hereditary breast cancer and small round blue-cell tumors. The results compare very favorably with currently used methods based on the normalized root-mean-square error. The appendix is available from http://gspsnap.tamu.edu/gspweb/zxb/missing_zxb/ (user: gspweb; passwd: gsplab).

Incorporating nonlinearity into mediation analyses.

PubMed

Knafl, George J; Knafl, Kathleen A; Grey, Margaret; Dixon, Jane; Deatrick, Janet A; Gallo, Agatha M

2017-03-21

Mediation is an important issue considered in the behavioral, medical, and social sciences. It addresses situations where the effect of a predictor variable X on an outcome variable Y is explained to some extent by an intervening, mediator variable M. Methods for addressing mediation have been available for some time. While these methods continue to undergo refinement, the relationships underlying mediation are commonly treated as linear in the outcome Y, the predictor X, and the mediator M. These relationships, however, can be nonlinear. Methods are needed for assessing when mediation relationships can be treated as linear and for estimating them when they are nonlinear. Existing adaptive regression methods based on fractional polynomials are extended here to address nonlinearity in mediation relationships, but assuming those relationships are monotonic as would be consistent with theories about directionality of such relationships. Example monotonic mediation analyses are provided assessing linear and monotonic mediation of the effect of family functioning (X) on a child's adaptation (Y) to a chronic condition by the difficulty (M) for the family in managing the child's condition. Example moderated monotonic mediation and simulation analyses are also presented. Adaptive methods provide an effective way to incorporate possibly nonlinear monotonicity into mediation relationships.

Traffic Predictive Control: Case Study and Evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-26

This project developed a quantile regression method for predicting future traffic flow at a signalized intersection by combining both historical and real-time data. The algorithm exploits nonlinear correlations in historical measurements and efficien...

Equilibrium, kinetics and process design of acid yellow 132 adsorption onto red pine sawdust.

PubMed

Can, Mustafa

2015-01-01

Linear and non-linear regression procedures have been applied to the Langmuir, Freundlich, Tempkin, Dubinin-Radushkevich, and Redlich-Peterson isotherms for adsorption of acid yellow 132 (AY132) dye onto red pine (Pinus resinosa) sawdust. The effects of parameters such as particle size, stirring rate, contact time, dye concentration, adsorption dose, pH, and temperature were investigated, and interaction was characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and field emission scanning electron microscope. The non-linear method of the Langmuir isotherm equation was found to be the best fitting model to the equilibrium data. The maximum monolayer adsorption capacity was found as 79.5 mg/g. The calculated thermodynamic results suggested that AY132 adsorption onto red pine sawdust was an exothermic, physisorption, and spontaneous process. Kinetics was analyzed by four different kinetic equations using non-linear regression analysis. The pseudo-second-order equation provides the best fit with experimental data.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

CO2 flux determination by closed-chamber methods can be seriously biased by inappropriate application of linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, L.; Schneider, J.; Sachs, T.; Giebels, M.; Nykänen, H.; Shurpali, N. J.; Martikainen, P. J.; Alm, J.; Wilmking, M.

2007-07-01

Closed (non-steady state) chambers are widely used for quantifying carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between soils or low-stature canopies and the atmosphere. It is well recognised that covering a soil or vegetation by a closed chamber inherently disturbs the natural CO2 fluxes by altering the concentration gradients between the soil, the vegetation and the overlying air. Thus, the driving factors of CO2 fluxes are not constant during the closed chamber experiment, and no linear increase or decrease of CO2 concentration over time within the chamber headspace can be expected. Nevertheless, linear regression has been applied for calculating CO2 fluxes in many recent, partly influential, studies. This approach was justified by keeping the closure time short and assuming the concentration change over time to be in the linear range. Here, we test if the application of linear regression is really appropriate for estimating CO2 fluxes using closed chambers over short closure times and if the application of nonlinear regression is necessary. We developed a nonlinear exponential regression model from diffusion and photosynthesis theory. This exponential model was tested with four different datasets of CO2 flux measurements (total number: 1764) conducted at three peatland sites in Finland and a tundra site in Siberia. The flux measurements were performed using transparent chambers on vegetated surfaces and opaque chambers on bare peat surfaces. Thorough analyses of residuals demonstrated that linear regression was frequently not appropriate for the determination of CO2 fluxes by closed-chamber methods, even if closure times were kept short. The developed exponential model was well suited for nonlinear regression of the concentration over time c(t) evolution in the chamber headspace and estimation of the initial CO2 fluxes at closure time for the majority of experiments. CO2 flux estimates by linear regression can be as low as 40% of the flux estimates of exponential regression for closure times of only two minutes and even lower for longer closure times. The degree of underestimation increased with increasing CO2 flux strength and is dependent on soil and vegetation conditions which can disturb not only the quantitative but also the qualitative evaluation of CO2 flux dynamics. The underestimation effect by linear regression was observed to be different for CO2 uptake and release situations which can lead to stronger bias in the daily, seasonal and annual CO2 balances than in the individual fluxes. To avoid serious bias of CO2 flux estimates based on closed chamber experiments, we suggest further tests using published datasets and recommend the use of nonlinear regression models for future closed chamber studies.

Photonic single nonlinear-delay dynamical node for information processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortín, Silvia; San-Martín, Daniel; Pesquera, Luis; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

2012-06-01

An electro-optical system with a delay loop based on semiconductor lasers is investigated for information processing by performing numerical simulations. This system can replace a complex network of many nonlinear elements for the implementation of Reservoir Computing. We show that a single nonlinear-delay dynamical system has the basic properties to perform as reservoir: short-term memory and separation property. The computing performance of this system is evaluated for two prediction tasks: Lorenz chaotic time series and nonlinear auto-regressive moving average (NARMA) model. We sweep the parameters of the system to find the best performance. The results achieved for the Lorenz and the NARMA-10 tasks are comparable to those obtained by other machine learning methods.

MANOVA vs nonlinear mixed effects modeling: The comparison of growth patterns of female and male quail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gürcan, Eser Kemal

2017-04-01

The most commonly used methods for analyzing time-dependent data are multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and nonlinear regression models. The aim of this study was to compare some MANOVA techniques and nonlinear mixed modeling approach for investigation of growth differentiation in female and male Japanese quail. Weekly individual body weight data of 352 male and 335 female quail from hatch to 8 weeks of age were used to perform analyses. It is possible to say that when all the analyses are evaluated, the nonlinear mixed modeling is superior to the other techniques because it also reveals the individual variation. In addition, the profile analysis also provides important information.

Geographical variation of cerebrovascular disease in New York State: the correlation with income

PubMed Central

Han, Daikwon; Carrow, Shannon S; Rogerson, Peter A; Munschauer, Frederick E

2005-01-01

Background Income is known to be associated with cerebrovascular disease; however, little is known about the more detailed relationship between cerebrovascular disease and income. We examined the hypothesis that the geographical distribution of cerebrovascular disease in New York State may be predicted by a nonlinear model using income as a surrogate socioeconomic risk factor. Results We used spatial clustering methods to identify areas with high and low prevalence of cerebrovascular disease at the ZIP code level after smoothing rates and correcting for edge effects; geographic locations of high and low clusters of cerebrovascular disease in New York State were identified with and without income adjustment. To examine effects of income, we calculated the excess number of cases using a non-linear regression with cerebrovascular disease rates taken as the dependent variable and income and income squared taken as independent variables. The resulting regression equation was: excess rate = 32.075 - 1.22*10-4(income) + 8.068*10-10(income2), and both income and income squared variables were significant at the 0.01 level. When income was included as a covariate in the non-linear regression, the number and size of clusters of high cerebrovascular disease prevalence decreased. Some 87 ZIP codes exceeded the critical value of the local statistic yielding a relative risk of 1.2. The majority of low cerebrovascular disease prevalence geographic clusters disappeared when the non-linear income effect was included. For linear regression, the excess rate of cerebrovascular disease falls with income; each $10,000 increase in median income of each ZIP code resulted in an average reduction of 3.83 observed cases. The significant nonlinear effect indicates a lessening of this income effect with increasing income. Conclusion Income is a non-linear predictor of excess cerebrovascular disease rates, with both low and high observed cerebrovascular disease rate areas associated with higher income. Income alone explains a significant amount of the geographical variance in cerebrovascular disease across New York State since both high and low clusters of cerebrovascular disease dissipate or disappear with income adjustment. Geographical modeling, including non-linear effects of income, may allow for better identification of other non-traditional risk factors. PMID:16242043

A non-linear regression analysis program for describing electrophysiological data with multiple functions using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Brown, Angus M

2006-04-01

The objective of this present study was to demonstrate a method for fitting complex electrophysiological data with multiple functions using the SOLVER add-in of the ubiquitous spreadsheet Microsoft Excel. SOLVER minimizes the difference between the sum of the squares of the data to be fit and the function(s) describing the data using an iterative generalized reduced gradient method. While it is a straightforward procedure to fit data with linear functions, and we have previously demonstrated a method of non-linear regression analysis of experimental data based upon a single function, it is more complex to fit data with multiple functions, usually requiring specialized expensive computer software. In this paper we describe an easily understood program for fitting experimentally acquired data, in this case the stimulus-evoked compound action potential from the mouse optic nerve, with multiple Gaussian functions. The program is flexible and can be applied to describe data with a wide variety of user-input functions.

An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harlim, John, E-mail: jharlim@psu.edu; Mahdi, Adam, E-mail: amahdi@ncsu.edu; Majda, Andrew J., E-mail: jonjon@cims.nyu.edu

2014-01-15

A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partialmore » noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.« less

Comparison Between Linear and Non-parametric Regression Models for Genome-Enabled Prediction in Wheat

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-01-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models. PMID:23275882

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, C.R.; Kernodle, J.M.; McAda, D.P.

1998-01-01

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

The allometry of coarse root biomass: log-transformed linear regression or nonlinear regression?

PubMed

Lai, Jiangshan; Yang, Bo; Lin, Dunmei; Kerkhoff, Andrew J; Ma, Keping

2013-01-01

Precise estimation of root biomass is important for understanding carbon stocks and dynamics in forests. Traditionally, biomass estimates are based on allometric scaling relationships between stem diameter and coarse root biomass calculated using linear regression (LR) on log-transformed data. Recently, it has been suggested that nonlinear regression (NLR) is a preferable fitting method for scaling relationships. But while this claim has been contested on both theoretical and empirical grounds, and statistical methods have been developed to aid in choosing between the two methods in particular cases, few studies have examined the ramifications of erroneously applying NLR. Here, we use direct measurements of 159 trees belonging to three locally dominant species in east China to compare the LR and NLR models of diameter-root biomass allometry. We then contrast model predictions by estimating stand coarse root biomass based on census data from the nearby 24-ha Gutianshan forest plot and by testing the ability of the models to predict known root biomass values measured on multiple tropical species at the Pasoh Forest Reserve in Malaysia. Based on likelihood estimates for model error distributions, as well as the accuracy of extrapolative predictions, we find that LR on log-transformed data is superior to NLR for fitting diameter-root biomass scaling models. More importantly, inappropriately using NLR leads to grossly inaccurate stand biomass estimates, especially for stands dominated by smaller trees.

Two-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimation in Health Services Research and Health Economics.

PubMed

Terza, Joseph V

2018-06-01

Empirical analyses in health services research and health economics often require implementation of nonlinear models whose regressors include one or more endogenous variables-regressors that are correlated with the unobserved random component of the model. In such cases, implementation of conventional regression methods that ignore endogeneity will likely produce results that are biased and not causally interpretable. Terza et al. (2008) discuss a relatively simple estimation method that avoids endogeneity bias and is applicable in a wide variety of nonlinear regression contexts. They call this method two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). In the present paper, I offer a 2SRI how-to guide for practitioners and a step-by-step protocol that can be implemented with any of the popular statistical or econometric software packages. We introduce the protocol and its Stata implementation in the context of a real data example. Implementation of 2SRI for a very broad class of nonlinear models is then discussed. Additional examples are given. We analyze cigarette smoking as a determinant of infant birthweight using data from Mullahy (1997). It is hoped that the discussion will serve as a practical guide to implementation of the 2SRI protocol for applied researchers. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

[Local Regression Algorithm Based on Net Analyte Signal and Its Application in Near Infrared Spectral Analysis].

PubMed

Zhang, Hong-guang; Lu, Jian-gang

2016-02-01

Abstract To overcome the problems of significant difference among samples and nonlinearity between the property and spectra of samples in spectral quantitative analysis, a local regression algorithm is proposed in this paper. In this algorithm, net signal analysis method(NAS) was firstly used to obtain the net analyte signal of the calibration samples and unknown samples, then the Euclidean distance between net analyte signal of the sample and net analyte signal of calibration samples was calculated and utilized as similarity index. According to the defined similarity index, the local calibration sets were individually selected for each unknown sample. Finally, a local PLS regression model was built on each local calibration sets for each unknown sample. The proposed method was applied to a set of near infrared spectra of meat samples. The results demonstrate that the prediction precision and model complexity of the proposed method are superior to global PLS regression method and conventional local regression algorithm based on spectral Euclidean distance.

CO2 flux determination by closed-chamber methods can be seriously biased by inappropriate application of linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kutzbach, L.; Schneider, J.; Sachs, T.; Giebels, M.; Nykänen, H.; Shurpali, N. J.; Martikainen, P. J.; Alm, J.; Wilmking, M.

2007-11-01

Closed (non-steady state) chambers are widely used for quantifying carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between soils or low-stature canopies and the atmosphere. It is well recognised that covering a soil or vegetation by a closed chamber inherently disturbs the natural CO2 fluxes by altering the concentration gradients between the soil, the vegetation and the overlying air. Thus, the driving factors of CO2 fluxes are not constant during the closed chamber experiment, and no linear increase or decrease of CO2 concentration over time within the chamber headspace can be expected. Nevertheless, linear regression has been applied for calculating CO2 fluxes in many recent, partly influential, studies. This approach has been justified by keeping the closure time short and assuming the concentration change over time to be in the linear range. Here, we test if the application of linear regression is really appropriate for estimating CO2 fluxes using closed chambers over short closure times and if the application of nonlinear regression is necessary. We developed a nonlinear exponential regression model from diffusion and photosynthesis theory. This exponential model was tested with four different datasets of CO2 flux measurements (total number: 1764) conducted at three peatlands sites in Finland and a tundra site in Siberia. Thorough analyses of residuals demonstrated that linear regression was frequently not appropriate for the determination of CO2 fluxes by closed-chamber methods, even if closure times were kept short. The developed exponential model was well suited for nonlinear regression of the concentration over time c(t) evolution in the chamber headspace and estimation of the initial CO2 fluxes at closure time for the majority of experiments. However, a rather large percentage of the exponential regression functions showed curvatures not consistent with the theoretical model which is considered to be caused by violations of the underlying model assumptions. Especially the effects of turbulence and pressure disturbances by the chamber deployment are suspected to have caused unexplainable curvatures. CO2 flux estimates by linear regression can be as low as 40% of the flux estimates of exponential regression for closure times of only two minutes. The degree of underestimation increased with increasing CO2 flux strength and was dependent on soil and vegetation conditions which can disturb not only the quantitative but also the qualitative evaluation of CO2 flux dynamics. The underestimation effect by linear regression was observed to be different for CO2 uptake and release situations which can lead to stronger bias in the daily, seasonal and annual CO2 balances than in the individual fluxes. To avoid serious bias of CO2 flux estimates based on closed chamber experiments, we suggest further tests using published datasets and recommend the use of nonlinear regression models for future closed chamber studies.

Application of General Regression Neural Network to the Prediction of LOD Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiao-Hong; Wang, Qi-Jie; Zhu, Jian-Jun; Zhang, Hao

2012-01-01

Traditional methods for predicting the change in length of day (LOD change) are mainly based on some linear models, such as the least square model and autoregression model, etc. However, the LOD change comprises complicated non-linear factors and the prediction effect of the linear models is always not so ideal. Thus, a kind of non-linear neural network — general regression neural network (GRNN) model is tried to make the prediction of the LOD change and the result is compared with the predicted results obtained by taking advantage of the BP (back propagation) neural network model and other models. The comparison result shows that the application of the GRNN to the prediction of the LOD change is highly effective and feasible.

Big Data Toolsets to Pharmacometrics: Application of Machine Learning for Time-to-Event Analysis.

PubMed

Gong, Xiajing; Hu, Meng; Zhao, Liang

2018-05-01

Additional value can be potentially created by applying big data tools to address pharmacometric problems. The performances of machine learning (ML) methods and the Cox regression model were evaluated based on simulated time-to-event data synthesized under various preset scenarios, i.e., with linear vs. nonlinear and dependent vs. independent predictors in the proportional hazard function, or with high-dimensional data featured by a large number of predictor variables. Our results showed that ML-based methods outperformed the Cox model in prediction performance as assessed by concordance index and in identifying the preset influential variables for high-dimensional data. The prediction performances of ML-based methods are also less sensitive to data size and censoring rates than the Cox regression model. In conclusion, ML-based methods provide a powerful tool for time-to-event analysis, with a built-in capacity for high-dimensional data and better performance when the predictor variables assume nonlinear relationships in the hazard function. © 2018 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Determination of nonlinear genetic architecture using compressed sensing.

PubMed

Ho, Chiu Man; Hsu, Stephen D H

2015-01-01

One of the fundamental problems of modern genomics is to extract the genetic architecture of a complex trait from a data set of individual genotypes and trait values. Establishing this important connection between genotype and phenotype is complicated by the large number of candidate genes, the potentially large number of causal loci, and the likely presence of some nonlinear interactions between different genes. Compressed Sensing methods obtain solutions to under-constrained systems of linear equations. These methods can be applied to the problem of determining the best model relating genotype to phenotype, and generally deliver better performance than simply regressing the phenotype against each genetic variant, one at a time. We introduce a Compressed Sensing method that can reconstruct nonlinear genetic models (i.e., including epistasis, or gene-gene interactions) from phenotype-genotype (GWAS) data. Our method uses L1-penalized regression applied to nonlinear functions of the sensing matrix. The computational and data resource requirements for our method are similar to those necessary for reconstruction of linear genetic models (or identification of gene-trait associations), assuming a condition of generalized sparsity, which limits the total number of gene-gene interactions. An example of a sparse nonlinear model is one in which a typical locus interacts with several or even many others, but only a small subset of all possible interactions exist. It seems plausible that most genetic architectures fall in this category. We give theoretical arguments suggesting that the method is nearly optimal in performance, and demonstrate its effectiveness on broad classes of nonlinear genetic models using simulated human genomes and the small amount of currently available real data. A phase transition (i.e., dramatic and qualitative change) in the behavior of the algorithm indicates when sufficient data is available for its successful application. Our results indicate that predictive models for many complex traits, including a variety of human disease susceptibilities (e.g., with additive heritability h (2)∼0.5), can be extracted from data sets comprised of n ⋆∼100s individuals, where s is the number of distinct causal variants influencing the trait. For example, given a trait controlled by ∼10 k loci, roughly a million individuals would be sufficient for application of the method.

A nonlinear cointegration approach with applications to structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, H.; Worden, K.; Cross, E. J.

2016-09-01

One major obstacle to the implementation of structural health monitoring (SHM) is the effect of operational and environmental variabilities, which may corrupt the signal of structural degradation. Recently, an approach inspired from the community of econometrics, called cointegration, has been employed to eliminate the adverse influence from operational and environmental changes and still maintain sensitivity to structural damage. However, the linear nature of cointegration may limit its application when confronting nonlinear relations between system responses. This paper proposes a nonlinear cointegration method based on Gaussian process regression (GPR); the method is constructed under the Engle-Granger framework, and tests for unit root processes are conducted both before and after the GPR is applied. The proposed approach is examined with real engineering data from the monitoring of the Z24 Bridge.

Linear regression models for solvent accessibility prediction in proteins.

PubMed

Wagner, Michael; Adamczak, Rafał; Porollo, Aleksey; Meller, Jarosław

2005-04-01

The relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of an amino acid residue in a protein structure is a real number that represents the solvent exposed surface area of this residue in relative terms. The problem of predicting the RSA from the primary amino acid sequence can therefore be cast as a regression problem. Nevertheless, RSA prediction has so far typically been cast as a classification problem. Consequently, various machine learning techniques have been used within the classification framework to predict whether a given amino acid exceeds some (arbitrary) RSA threshold and would thus be predicted to be "exposed," as opposed to "buried." We have recently developed novel methods for RSA prediction using nonlinear regression techniques which provide accurate estimates of the real-valued RSA and outperform classification-based approaches with respect to commonly used two-class projections. However, while their performance seems to provide a significant improvement over previously published approaches, these Neural Network (NN) based methods are computationally expensive to train and involve several thousand parameters. In this work, we develop alternative regression models for RSA prediction which are computationally much less expensive, involve orders-of-magnitude fewer parameters, and are still competitive in terms of prediction quality. In particular, we investigate several regression models for RSA prediction using linear L1-support vector regression (SVR) approaches as well as standard linear least squares (LS) regression. Using rigorously derived validation sets of protein structures and extensive cross-validation analysis, we compare the performance of the SVR with that of LS regression and NN-based methods. In particular, we show that the flexibility of the SVR (as encoded by metaparameters such as the error insensitivity and the error penalization terms) can be very beneficial to optimize the prediction accuracy for buried residues. We conclude that the simple and computationally much more efficient linear SVR performs comparably to nonlinear models and thus can be used in order to facilitate further attempts to design more accurate RSA prediction methods, with applications to fold recognition and de novo protein structure prediction methods.

Retrieval of aerosol optical depth from surface solar radiation measurements using machine learning algorithms, non-linear regression and a radiative transfer-based look-up table

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttunen, Jani; Kokkola, Harri; Mielonen, Tero; Esa Juhani Mononen, Mika; Lipponen, Antti; Reunanen, Juha; Vilhelm Lindfors, Anders; Mikkonen, Santtu; Erkki Juhani Lehtinen, Kari; Kouremeti, Natalia; Bais, Alkiviadis; Niska, Harri; Arola, Antti

2016-07-01

In order to have a good estimate of the current forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, knowledge on past aerosol levels is needed. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a good measure for aerosol loading. However, dedicated measurements of AOD are only available from the 1990s onward. One option to lengthen the AOD time series beyond the 1990s is to retrieve AOD from surface solar radiation (SSR) measurements taken with pyranometers. In this work, we have evaluated several inversion methods designed for this task. We compared a look-up table method based on radiative transfer modelling, a non-linear regression method and four machine learning methods (Gaussian process, neural network, random forest and support vector machine) with AOD observations carried out with a sun photometer at an Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) site in Thessaloniki, Greece. Our results show that most of the machine learning methods produce AOD estimates comparable to the look-up table and non-linear regression methods. All of the applied methods produced AOD values that corresponded well to the AERONET observations with the lowest correlation coefficient value being 0.87 for the random forest method. While many of the methods tended to slightly overestimate low AODs and underestimate high AODs, neural network and support vector machine showed overall better correspondence for the whole AOD range. The differences in producing both ends of the AOD range seem to be caused by differences in the aerosol composition. High AODs were in most cases those with high water vapour content which might affect the aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) through uptake of water into aerosols. Our study indicates that machine learning methods benefit from the fact that they do not constrain the aerosol SSA in the retrieval, whereas the LUT method assumes a constant value for it. This would also mean that machine learning methods could have potential in reproducing AOD from SSR even though SSA would have changed during the observation period.

Expanding the occupational health methodology: A concatenated artificial neural network approach to model the burnout process in Chinese nurses.

PubMed

Ladstätter, Felix; Garrosa, Eva; Moreno-Jiménez, Bernardo; Ponsoda, Vicente; Reales Aviles, José Manuel; Dai, Junming

2016-01-01

Artificial neural networks are sophisticated modelling and prediction tools capable of extracting complex, non-linear relationships between predictor (input) and predicted (output) variables. This study explores this capacity by modelling non-linearities in the hardiness-modulated burnout process with a neural network. Specifically, two multi-layer feed-forward artificial neural networks are concatenated in an attempt to model the composite non-linear burnout process. Sensitivity analysis, a Monte Carlo-based global simulation technique, is then utilised to examine the first-order effects of the predictor variables on the burnout sub-dimensions and consequences. Results show that (1) this concatenated artificial neural network approach is feasible to model the burnout process, (2) sensitivity analysis is a prolific method to study the relative importance of predictor variables and (3) the relationships among variables involved in the development of burnout and its consequences are to different degrees non-linear. Many relationships among variables (e.g., stressors and strains) are not linear, yet researchers use linear methods such as Pearson correlation or linear regression to analyse these relationships. Artificial neural network analysis is an innovative method to analyse non-linear relationships and in combination with sensitivity analysis superior to linear methods.

Nonlinear Trimodal Regression Analysis of Radiodensitometric Distributions to Quantify Sarcopenic and Sequelae Muscle Degeneration

PubMed Central

Árnadóttir, Í.; Gíslason, M. K.; Carraro, U.

2016-01-01

Muscle degeneration has been consistently identified as an independent risk factor for high mortality in both aging populations and individuals suffering from neuromuscular pathology or injury. While there is much extant literature on its quantification and correlation to comorbidities, a quantitative gold standard for analyses in this regard remains undefined. Herein, we hypothesize that rigorously quantifying entire radiodensitometric distributions elicits more muscle quality information than average values reported in extant methods. This study reports the development and utility of a nonlinear trimodal regression analysis method utilized on radiodensitometric distributions of upper leg muscles from CT scans of a healthy young adult, a healthy elderly subject, and a spinal cord injury patient. The method was then employed with a THA cohort to assess pre- and postsurgical differences in their healthy and operative legs. Results from the initial representative models elicited high degrees of correlation to HU distributions, and regression parameters highlighted physiologically evident differences between subjects. Furthermore, results from the THA cohort echoed physiological justification and indicated significant improvements in muscle quality in both legs following surgery. Altogether, these results highlight the utility of novel parameters from entire HU distributions that could provide insight into the optimal quantification of muscle degeneration. PMID:28115982

Regression Models and Fuzzy Logic Prediction of TBM Penetration Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minh, Vu Trieu; Katushin, Dmitri; Antonov, Maksim; Veinthal, Renno

2017-03-01

This paper presents statistical analyses of rock engineering properties and the measured penetration rate of tunnel boring machine (TBM) based on the data of an actual project. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of rock engineering properties including uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), Brazilian tensile strength (BTS), rock brittleness index (BI), the distance between planes of weakness (DPW), and the alpha angle (Alpha) between the tunnel axis and the planes of weakness on the TBM rate of penetration (ROP). Four (4) statistical regression models (two linear and two nonlinear) are built to predict the ROP of TBM. Finally a fuzzy logic model is developed as an alternative method and compared to the four statistical regression models. Results show that the fuzzy logic model provides better estimations and can be applied to predict the TBM performance. The R-squared value (R2) of the fuzzy logic model scores the highest value of 0.714 over the second runner-up of 0.667 from the multiple variables nonlinear regression model.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

INNOVATIVE INSTRUMENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE GASIFICATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seong W. Lee

2004-10-01

The systematic tests of the gasifier simulator on the clean thermocouple were completed in this reporting period. Within the systematic tests on the clean thermocouple, five (5) factors were considered as the experimental parameters including air flow rate, water flow rate, fine dust particle amount, ammonia addition and high/low frequency device (electric motor). The fractional factorial design method was used in the experiment design with sixteen (16) data sets of readings. Analysis of Variances (ANOVA) was applied to the results from systematic tests. The ANOVA results show that the un-balanced motor vibration frequency did not have the significant impact onmore » the temperature changes in the gasifier simulator. For the fine dust particles testing, the amount of fine dust particles has significant impact to the temperature measurements in the gasifier simulator. The effects of the air and water on the temperature measurements show the same results as reported in the previous report. The ammonia concentration was included as an experimental parameter for the reducing environment in this reporting period. The ammonia concentration does not seem to be a significant factor on the temperature changes. The linear regression analysis was applied to the temperature reading with five (5) factors. The accuracy of the linear regression is relatively low, which is less than 10% accuracy. Nonlinear regression was also conducted to the temperature reading with the same factors. Since the experiments were designed in two (2) levels, the nonlinear regression is not very effective with the dataset (16 readings). An extra central point test was conducted. With the data of the center point testing, the accuracy of the nonlinear regression is much better than the linear regression.« less

Evaluation of laser cutting process with auxiliary gas pressure by soft computing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazov, Lyubomir; Nikolić, Vlastimir; Jovic, Srdjan; Milovančević, Miloš; Deneva, Heristina; Teirumenieka, Erika; Arsic, Nebojsa

2018-06-01

Evaluation of the optimal laser cutting parameters is very important for the high cut quality. This is highly nonlinear process with different parameters which is the main challenge in the optimization process. Data mining methodology is one of most versatile method which can be used laser cutting process optimization. Support vector regression (SVR) procedure is implemented since it is a versatile and robust technique for very nonlinear data regression. The goal in this study was to determine the optimal laser cutting parameters to ensure robust condition for minimization of average surface roughness. Three cutting parameters, the cutting speed, the laser power, and the assist gas pressure, were used in the investigation. As a laser type TruLaser 1030 technological system was used. Nitrogen as an assisted gas was used in the laser cutting process. As the data mining method, support vector regression procedure was used. Data mining prediction accuracy was very high according the coefficient (R2) of determination and root mean square error (RMSE): R2 = 0.9975 and RMSE = 0.0337. Therefore the data mining approach could be used effectively for determination of the optimal conditions of the laser cutting process.

Travel Demand Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Southworth, Frank; Garrow, Dr. Laurie

This chapter describes the principal types of both passenger and freight demand models in use today, providing a brief history of model development supported by references to a number of popular texts on the subject, and directing the reader to papers covering some of the more recent technical developments in the area. Over the past half century a variety of methods have been used to estimate and forecast travel demands, drawing concepts from economic/utility maximization theory, transportation system optimization and spatial interaction theory, using and often combining solution techniques as varied as Box-Jenkins methods, non-linear multivariate regression, non-linear mathematical programming,more » and agent-based microsimulation.« less

Examining the influence of link function misspecification in conventional regression models for developing crash modification factors.

PubMed

Wu, Lingtao; Lord, Dominique

2017-05-01

This study further examined the use of regression models for developing crash modification factors (CMFs), specifically focusing on the misspecification in the link function. The primary objectives were to validate the accuracy of CMFs derived from the commonly used regression models (i.e., generalized linear models or GLMs with additive linear link functions) when some of the variables have nonlinear relationships and quantify the amount of bias as a function of the nonlinearity. Using the concept of artificial realistic data, various linear and nonlinear crash modification functions (CM-Functions) were assumed for three variables. Crash counts were randomly generated based on these CM-Functions. CMFs were then derived from regression models for three different scenarios. The results were compared with the assumed true values. The main findings are summarized as follows: (1) when some variables have nonlinear relationships with crash risk, the CMFs for these variables derived from the commonly used GLMs are all biased, especially around areas away from the baseline conditions (e.g., boundary areas); (2) with the increase in nonlinearity (i.e., nonlinear relationship becomes stronger), the bias becomes more significant; (3) the quality of CMFs for other variables having linear relationships can be influenced when mixed with those having nonlinear relationships, but the accuracy may still be acceptable; and (4) the misuse of the link function for one or more variables can also lead to biased estimates for other parameters. This study raised the importance of the link function when using regression models for developing CMFs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partitioning sources of variation in vertebrate species richness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boone, R.B.; Krohn, W.B.

2000-01-01

Aim: To explore biogeographic patterns of terrestrial vertebrates in Maine, USA using techniques that would describe local and spatial correlations with the environment. Location: Maine, USA. Methods: We delineated the ranges within Maine (86,156 km2) of 275 species using literature and expert review. Ranges were combined into species richness maps, and compared to geomorphology, climate, and woody plant distributions. Methods were adapted that compared richness of all vertebrate classes to each environmental correlate, rather than assessing a single explanatory theory. We partitioned variation in species richness into components using tree and multiple linear regression. Methods were used that allowed for useful comparisons between tree and linear regression results. For both methods we partitioned variation into broad-scale (spatially autocorrelated) and fine-scale (spatially uncorrelated) explained and unexplained components. By partitioning variance, and using both tree and linear regression in analyses, we explored the degree of variation in species richness for each vertebrate group that Could be explained by the relative contribution of each environmental variable. Results: In tree regression, climate variation explained richness better (92% of mean deviance explained for all species) than woody plant variation (87%) and geomorphology (86%). Reptiles were highly correlated with environmental variation (93%), followed by mammals, amphibians, and birds (each with 84-82% deviance explained). In multiple linear regression, climate was most closely associated with total vertebrate richness (78%), followed by woody plants (67%) and geomorphology (56%). Again, reptiles were closely correlated with the environment (95%), followed by mammals (73%), amphibians (63%) and birds (57%). Main conclusions: Comparing variation explained using tree and multiple linear regression quantified the importance of nonlinear relationships and local interactions between species richness and environmental variation, identifying the importance of linear relationships between reptiles and the environment, and nonlinear relationships between birds and woody plants, for example. Conservation planners should capture climatic variation in broad-scale designs; temperatures may shift during climate change, but the underlying correlations between the environment and species richness will presumably remain.

Trace analysis of acids and bases by conductometric titration with multiparametric non-linear regression.

PubMed

Coelho, Lúcia H G; Gutz, Ivano G R

2006-03-15

A chemometric method for analysis of conductometric titration data was introduced to extend its applicability to lower concentrations and more complex acid-base systems. Auxiliary pH measurements were made during the titration to assist the calculation of the distribution of protonable species on base of known or guessed equilibrium constants. Conductivity values of each ionized or ionizable species possibly present in the sample were introduced in a general equation where the only unknown parameters were the total concentrations of (conjugated) bases and of strong electrolytes not involved in acid-base equilibria. All these concentrations were adjusted by a multiparametric nonlinear regression (NLR) method, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. This first conductometric titration method with NLR analysis (CT-NLR) was successfully applied to simulated conductometric titration data and to synthetic samples with multiple components at concentrations as low as those found in rainwater (approximately 10 micromol L(-1)). It was possible to resolve and quantify mixtures containing a strong acid, formic acid, acetic acid, ammonium ion, bicarbonate and inert electrolyte with accuracy of 5% or better.

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binner, J. M.; Tino, P.; Tepper, J.; Anderson, R.; Jones, B.; Kendall, G.

2010-11-01

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression-techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.

Classifying depression patients and normal subjects using machine learning techniques and nonlinear features from EEG signal.

PubMed

Hosseinifard, Behshad; Moradi, Mohammad Hassan; Rostami, Reza

2013-03-01

Diagnosing depression in the early curable stages is very important and may even save the life of a patient. In this paper, we study nonlinear analysis of EEG signal for discriminating depression patients and normal controls. Forty-five unmedicated depressed patients and 45 normal subjects were participated in this study. Power of four EEG bands and four nonlinear features including detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), higuchi fractal, correlation dimension and lyapunov exponent were extracted from EEG signal. For discriminating the two groups, k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression as the classifiers are then used. Highest classification accuracy of 83.3% is obtained by correlation dimension and LR classifier among other nonlinear features. For further improvement, all nonlinear features are combined and applied to classifiers. A classification accuracy of 90% is achieved by all nonlinear features and LR classifier. In all experiments, genetic algorithm is employed to select the most important features. The proposed technique is compared and contrasted with the other reported methods and it is demonstrated that by combining nonlinear features, the performance is enhanced. This study shows that nonlinear analysis of EEG can be a useful method for discriminating depressed patients and normal subjects. It is suggested that this analysis may be a complementary tool to help psychiatrists for diagnosing depressed patients. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonparametric Stochastic Model for Uncertainty Quantifi cation of Short-term Wind Speed Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AL-Shehhi, A. M.; Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2014-12-01

Wind energy is increasing in importance as a renewable energy source due to its potential role in reducing carbon emissions. It is a safe, clean, and inexhaustible source of energy. The amount of wind energy generated by wind turbines is closely related to the wind speed. Wind speed forecasting plays a vital role in the wind energy sector in terms of wind turbine optimal operation, wind energy dispatch and scheduling, efficient energy harvesting etc. It is also considered during planning, design, and assessment of any proposed wind project. Therefore, accurate prediction of wind speed carries a particular importance and plays significant roles in the wind industry. Many methods have been proposed in the literature for short-term wind speed forecasting. These methods are usually based on modeling historical fixed time intervals of the wind speed data and using it for future prediction. The methods mainly include statistical models such as ARMA, ARIMA model, physical models for instance numerical weather prediction and artificial Intelligence techniques for example support vector machine and neural networks. In this paper, we are interested in estimating hourly wind speed measures in United Arab Emirates (UAE). More precisely, we predict hourly wind speed using a nonparametric kernel estimation of the regression and volatility functions pertaining to nonlinear autoregressive model with ARCH model, which includes unknown nonlinear regression function and volatility function already discussed in the literature. The unknown nonlinear regression function describe the dependence between the value of the wind speed at time t and its historical data at time t -1, t - 2, … , t - d. This function plays a key role to predict hourly wind speed process. The volatility function, i.e., the conditional variance given the past, measures the risk associated to this prediction. Since the regression and the volatility functions are supposed to be unknown, they are estimated using nonparametric kernel methods. In addition, to the pointwise hourly wind speed forecasts, a confidence interval is also provided which allows to quantify the uncertainty around the forecasts.

Precision Interval Estimation of the Response Surface by Means of an Integrated Algorithm of Neural Network and Linear Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, Ching F.

1999-01-01

The integration of Radial Basis Function Networks and Back Propagation Neural Networks with the Multiple Linear Regression has been accomplished to map nonlinear response surfaces over a wide range of independent variables in the process of the Modem Design of Experiments. The integrated method is capable to estimate the precision intervals including confidence and predicted intervals. The power of the innovative method has been demonstrated by applying to a set of wind tunnel test data in construction of response surface and estimation of precision interval.

Estimating mono- and bi-phasic regression parameters using a mixture piecewise linear Bayesian hierarchical model

PubMed Central

Zhao, Rui; Catalano, Paul; DeGruttola, Victor G.; Michor, Franziska

2017-01-01

The dynamics of tumor burden, secreted proteins or other biomarkers over time, is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of therapy and to predict outcomes for patients. Many methods have been proposed to investigate longitudinal trends to better characterize patients and to understand disease progression. However, most approaches assume a homogeneous patient population and a uniform response trajectory over time and across patients. Here, we present a mixture piecewise linear Bayesian hierarchical model, which takes into account both population heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships between biomarkers and time. Simulation results show that our method was able to classify subjects according to their patterns of treatment response with greater than 80% accuracy in the three scenarios tested. We then applied our model to a large randomized controlled phase III clinical trial of multiple myeloma patients. Analysis results suggest that the longitudinal tumor burden trajectories in multiple myeloma patients are heterogeneous and nonlinear, even among patients assigned to the same treatment cohort. In addition, between cohorts, there are distinct differences in terms of the regression parameters and the distributions among categories in the mixture. Those results imply that longitudinal data from clinical trials may harbor unobserved subgroups and nonlinear relationships; accounting for both may be important for analyzing longitudinal data. PMID:28723910

Support vector machine regression (SVR/LS-SVM)--an alternative to neural networks (ANN) for analytical chemistry? Comparison of nonlinear methods on near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy data.

PubMed

Balabin, Roman M; Lomakina, Ekaterina I

2011-04-21

In this study, we make a general comparison of the accuracy and robustness of five multivariate calibration models: partial least squares (PLS) regression or projection to latent structures, polynomial partial least squares (Poly-PLS) regression, artificial neural networks (ANNs), and two novel techniques based on support vector machines (SVMs) for multivariate data analysis: support vector regression (SVR) and least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs). The comparison is based on fourteen (14) different datasets: seven sets of gasoline data (density, benzene content, and fractional composition/boiling points), two sets of ethanol gasoline fuel data (density and ethanol content), one set of diesel fuel data (total sulfur content), three sets of petroleum (crude oil) macromolecules data (weight percentages of asphaltenes, resins, and paraffins), and one set of petroleum resins data (resins content). Vibrational (near-infrared, NIR) spectroscopic data are used to predict the properties and quality coefficients of gasoline, biofuel/biodiesel, diesel fuel, and other samples of interest. The four systems presented here range greatly in composition, properties, strength of intermolecular interactions (e.g., van der Waals forces, H-bonds), colloid structure, and phase behavior. Due to the high diversity of chemical systems studied, general conclusions about SVM regression methods can be made. We try to answer the following question: to what extent can SVM-based techniques replace ANN-based approaches in real-world (industrial/scientific) applications? The results show that both SVR and LS-SVM methods are comparable to ANNs in accuracy. Due to the much higher robustness of the former, the SVM-based approaches are recommended for practical (industrial) application. This has been shown to be especially true for complicated, highly nonlinear objects.

A non-linear data mining parameter selection algorithm for continuous variables

PubMed Central

Razavi, Marianne; Brady, Sean

2017-01-01

In this article, we propose a new data mining algorithm, by which one can both capture the non-linearity in data and also find the best subset model. To produce an enhanced subset of the original variables, a preferred selection method should have the potential of adding a supplementary level of regression analysis that would capture complex relationships in the data via mathematical transformation of the predictors and exploration of synergistic effects of combined variables. The method that we present here has the potential to produce an optimal subset of variables, rendering the overall process of model selection more efficient. This algorithm introduces interpretable parameters by transforming the original inputs and also a faithful fit to the data. The core objective of this paper is to introduce a new estimation technique for the classical least square regression framework. This new automatic variable transformation and model selection method could offer an optimal and stable model that minimizes the mean square error and variability, while combining all possible subset selection methodology with the inclusion variable transformations and interactions. Moreover, this method controls multicollinearity, leading to an optimal set of explanatory variables. PMID:29131829

Correlation and simple linear regression.

PubMed

Zou, Kelly H; Tuncali, Kemal; Silverman, Stuart G

2003-06-01

In this tutorial article, the concepts of correlation and regression are reviewed and demonstrated. The authors review and compare two correlation coefficients, the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rho, for measuring linear and nonlinear relationships between two continuous variables. In the case of measuring the linear relationship between a predictor and an outcome variable, simple linear regression analysis is conducted. These statistical concepts are illustrated by using a data set from published literature to assess a computed tomography-guided interventional technique. These statistical methods are important for exploring the relationships between variables and can be applied to many radiologic studies.

A comparison of several methods of solving nonlinear regression groundwater flow problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1985-01-01

Computational efficiency and computer memory requirements for four methods of minimizing functions were compared for four test nonlinear-regression steady state groundwater flow problems. The fastest methods were the Marquardt and quasi-linearization methods, which required almost identical computer times and numbers of iterations; the next fastest was the quasi-Newton method, and last was the Fletcher-Reeves method, which did not converge in 100 iterations for two of the problems. The fastest method per iteration was the Fletcher-Reeves method, and this was followed closely by the quasi-Newton method. The Marquardt and quasi-linearization methods were slower. For all four methods the speed per iteration was directly related to the number of parameters in the model. However, this effect was much more pronounced for the Marquardt and quasi-linearization methods than for the other two. Hence the quasi-Newton (and perhaps Fletcher-Reeves) method might be more efficient than either the Marquardt or quasi-linearization methods if the number of parameters in a particular model were large, although this remains to be proven. The Marquardt method required somewhat less central memory than the quasi-linearization metilod for three of the four problems. For all four problems the quasi-Newton method required roughly two thirds to three quarters of the memory required by the Marquardt method, and the Fletcher-Reeves method required slightly less memory than the quasi-Newton method. Memory requirements were not excessive for any of the four methods.

A component prediction method for flue gas of natural gas combustion based on nonlinear partial least squares method.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Yan, Xingyu; Li, Yaojiang; Wang, Yanxia; Zhou, Yan; Yang, Sanchun

2014-01-01

Quantitative analysis for the flue gas of natural gas-fired generator is significant for energy conservation and emission reduction. The traditional partial least squares method may not deal with the nonlinear problems effectively. In the paper, a nonlinear partial least squares method with extended input based on radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is used for components prediction of flue gas. For the proposed method, the original independent input matrix is the input of RBFNN and the outputs of hidden layer nodes of RBFNN are the extension term of the original independent input matrix. Then, the partial least squares regression is performed on the extended input matrix and the output matrix to establish the components prediction model of flue gas. A near-infrared spectral dataset of flue gas of natural gas combustion is used for estimating the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with PLS. The experiments results show that the root-mean-square errors of prediction values of the proposed method for methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide are, respectively, reduced by 4.74%, 21.76%, and 5.32% compared to those of PLS. Hence, the proposed method has higher predictive capabilities and better robustness.

Finite-sample and asymptotic sign-based tests for parameters of non-linear quantile regression with Markov noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirenko, M. A.; Tarasenko, P. F.; Pushkarev, M. I.

2017-01-01

One of the most noticeable features of sign-based statistical procedures is an opportunity to build an exact test for simple hypothesis testing of parameters in a regression model. In this article, we expanded a sing-based approach to the nonlinear case with dependent noise. The examined model is a multi-quantile regression, which makes it possible to test hypothesis not only of regression parameters, but of noise parameters as well.

An Excel Solver Exercise to Introduce Nonlinear Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2013-01-01

Business students taking business analytics courses that have significant predictive modeling components, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, are introduced to nonlinear regression using application software that is a "black box" to the students. Thus, although correct models are…

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, R.L.; Christensen, S.

2006-01-01

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector ?? that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation ????*, where ?? is an interpolation matrix and ??* is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector ??* has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(????*) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of ??, ??,f(??), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(??) - f(????*), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate ??* and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(??) and f(????*) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general procedure to generate models for urban environmental-noise pollution using feature selection and machine learning methods.

PubMed

Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P

2015-02-01

The prediction of environmental noise in urban environments requires the solution of a complex and non-linear problem, since there are complex relationships among the multitude of variables involved in the characterization and modelling of environmental noise and environmental-noise magnitudes. Moreover, the inclusion of the great spatial heterogeneity characteristic of urban environments seems to be essential in order to achieve an accurate environmental-noise prediction in cities. This problem is addressed in this paper, where a procedure based on feature-selection techniques and machine-learning regression methods is proposed and applied to this environmental problem. Three machine-learning regression methods, which are considered very robust in solving non-linear problems, are used to estimate the energy-equivalent sound-pressure level descriptor (LAeq). These three methods are: (i) multilayer perceptron (MLP), (ii) sequential minimal optimisation (SMO), and (iii) Gaussian processes for regression (GPR). In addition, because of the high number of input variables involved in environmental-noise modelling and estimation in urban environments, which make LAeq prediction models quite complex and costly in terms of time and resources for application to real situations, three different techniques are used to approach feature selection or data reduction. The feature-selection techniques used are: (i) correlation-based feature-subset selection (CFS), (ii) wrapper for feature-subset selection (WFS), and the data reduction technique is principal-component analysis (PCA). The subsequent analysis leads to a proposal of different schemes, depending on the needs regarding data collection and accuracy. The use of WFS as the feature-selection technique with the implementation of SMO or GPR as regression algorithm provides the best LAeq estimation (R(2)=0.94 and mean absolute error (MAE)=1.14-1.16 dB(A)). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Boosting structured additive quantile regression for longitudinal childhood obesity data.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Fahrmeir, Ludwig; Hothorn, Torsten; Rzehak, Peter; Höhle, Michael

2013-07-25

Childhood obesity and the investigation of its risk factors has become an important public health issue. Our work is based on and motivated by a German longitudinal study including 2,226 children with up to ten measurements on their body mass index (BMI) and risk factors from birth to the age of 10 years. We introduce boosting of structured additive quantile regression as a novel distribution-free approach for longitudinal quantile regression. The quantile-specific predictors of our model include conventional linear population effects, smooth nonlinear functional effects, varying-coefficient terms, and individual-specific effects, such as intercepts and slopes. Estimation is based on boosting, a computer intensive inference method for highly complex models. We propose a component-wise functional gradient descent boosting algorithm that allows for penalized estimation of the large variety of different effects, particularly leading to individual-specific effects shrunken toward zero. This concept allows us to flexibly estimate the nonlinear age curves of upper quantiles of the BMI distribution, both on population and on individual-specific level, adjusted for further risk factors and to detect age-varying effects of categorical risk factors. Our model approach can be regarded as the quantile regression analog of Gaussian additive mixed models (or structured additive mean regression models), and we compare both model classes with respect to our obesity data.

Studying Individual Differences in Predictability with Gamma Regression and Nonlinear Multilevel Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2010-01-01

Statistical prediction remains an important tool for decisions in a variety of disciplines. An equally important issue is identifying factors that contribute to more or less accurate predictions. The time series literature includes well developed methods for studying predictability and volatility over time. This article develops…

Individual tree growth models for natural even-aged shortleaf pine

Treesearch

Chakra B. Budhathoki; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

2006-01-01

Shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata Mill.) measurements were available from permanent plots established in even-aged stands of the Ouachita Mountains for studying growth. Annual basal area growth was modeled with a least-squares nonlinear regression method utilizing three measurements. The analysis showed that the parameter estimates were in agreement...

A New SEYHAN's Approach in Case of Heterogeneity of Regression Slopes in ANCOVA.

PubMed

Ankarali, Handan; Cangur, Sengul; Ankarali, Seyit

2018-06-01

In this study, when the assumptions of linearity and homogeneity of regression slopes of conventional ANCOVA are not met, a new approach named as SEYHAN has been suggested to use conventional ANCOVA instead of robust or nonlinear ANCOVA. The proposed SEYHAN's approach involves transformation of continuous covariate into categorical structure when the relationship between covariate and dependent variable is nonlinear and the regression slopes are not homogenous. A simulated data set was used to explain SEYHAN's approach. In this approach, we performed conventional ANCOVA in each subgroup which is constituted according to knot values and analysis of variance with two-factor model after MARS method was used for categorization of covariate. The first model is a simpler model than the second model that includes interaction term. Since the model with interaction effect has more subjects, the power of test also increases and the existing significant difference is revealed better. We can say that linearity and homogeneity of regression slopes are not problem for data analysis by conventional linear ANCOVA model by helping this approach. It can be used fast and efficiently for the presence of one or more covariates.

Carbon dioxide stripping in aquaculture -- part III: model verification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colt, John; Watten, Barnaby; Pfeiffer, Tim

2012-01-01

Based on conventional mass transfer models developed for oxygen, the use of the non-linear ASCE method, 2-point method, and one parameter linear-regression method were evaluated for carbon dioxide stripping data. For values of KLaCO2 < approximately 1.5/h, the 2-point or ASCE method are a good fit to experimental data, but the fit breaks down at higher values of KLaCO2. How to correct KLaCO2 for gas phase enrichment remains to be determined. The one-parameter linear regression model was used to vary the C*CO2 over the test, but it did not result in a better fit to the experimental data when compared to the ASCE or fixed C*CO2 assumptions.

A deep belief network with PLSR for nonlinear system modeling.

PubMed

Qiao, Junfei; Wang, Gongming; Li, Wenjing; Li, Xiaoli

2018-08-01

Nonlinear system modeling plays an important role in practical engineering, and deep learning-based deep belief network (DBN) is now popular in nonlinear system modeling and identification because of the strong learning ability. However, the existing weights optimization for DBN is based on gradient, which always leads to a local optimum and a poor training result. In this paper, a DBN with partial least square regression (PLSR-DBN) is proposed for nonlinear system modeling, which focuses on the problem of weights optimization for DBN using PLSR. Firstly, unsupervised contrastive divergence (CD) algorithm is used in weights initialization. Secondly, initial weights derived from CD algorithm are optimized through layer-by-layer PLSR modeling from top layer to bottom layer. Instead of gradient method, PLSR-DBN can determine the optimal weights using several PLSR models, so that a better performance of PLSR-DBN is achieved. Then, the analysis of convergence is theoretically given to guarantee the effectiveness of the proposed PLSR-DBN model. Finally, the proposed PLSR-DBN is tested on two benchmark nonlinear systems and an actual wastewater treatment system as well as a handwritten digit recognition (nonlinear mapping and modeling) with high-dimension input data. The experiment results show that the proposed PLSR-DBN has better performances of time and accuracy on nonlinear system modeling than that of other methods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric Methods for Dynamic 11C-Phenytoin PET Studies.

PubMed

Mansor, Syahir; Yaqub, Maqsood; Boellaard, Ronald; Froklage, Femke E; de Vries, Anke; Bakker, Esther D M; Voskuyl, Rob A; Eriksson, Jonas; Schwarte, Lothar A; Verbeek, Joost; Windhorst, Albert D; Lammertsma, Adriaan A

2017-03-01

In this study, the performance of various methods for generating quantitative parametric images of dynamic 11 C-phenytoin PET studies was evaluated. Methods: Double-baseline 60-min dynamic 11 C-phenytoin PET studies, including online arterial sampling, were acquired for 6 healthy subjects. Parametric images were generated using Logan plot analysis, a basis function method, and spectral analysis. Parametric distribution volume (V T ) and influx rate ( K 1 ) were compared with those obtained from nonlinear regression analysis of time-activity curves. In addition, global and regional test-retest (TRT) variability was determined for parametric K 1 and V T values. Results: Biases in V T observed with all parametric methods were less than 5%. For K 1 , spectral analysis showed a negative bias of 16%. The mean TRT variabilities of V T and K 1 were less than 10% for all methods. Shortening the scan duration to 45 min provided similar V T and K 1 with comparable TRT performance compared with 60-min data. Conclusion: Among the various parametric methods tested, the basis function method provided parametric V T and K 1 values with the least bias compared with nonlinear regression data and showed TRT variabilities lower than 5%, also for smaller volume-of-interest sizes (i.e., higher noise levels) and shorter scan duration. © 2017 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging.

Predicting radiotherapy outcomes using statistical learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, Issam; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; Lindsay, Patricia E.; Hope, Andrew J.; Deasy, Joseph O.

2009-09-01

Radiotherapy outcomes are determined by complex interactions between treatment, anatomical and patient-related variables. A common obstacle to building maximally predictive outcome models for clinical practice is the failure to capture potential complexity of heterogeneous variable interactions and applicability beyond institutional data. We describe a statistical learning methodology that can automatically screen for nonlinear relations among prognostic variables and generalize to unseen data before. In this work, several types of linear and nonlinear kernels to generate interaction terms and approximate the treatment-response function are evaluated. Examples of institutional datasets of esophagitis, pneumonitis and xerostomia endpoints were used. Furthermore, an independent RTOG dataset was used for 'generalizabilty' validation. We formulated the discrimination between risk groups as a supervised learning problem. The distribution of patient groups was initially analyzed using principle components analysis (PCA) to uncover potential nonlinear behavior. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate correlations and actuarial analysis. Over-fitting was controlled via cross-validation resampling. Our results suggest that a modified support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression and neural networks in cases where the data exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA. For instance, in prediction of esophagitis and pneumonitis endpoints, which exhibited nonlinear behavior on PCA, the method provided 21% and 60% improvements, respectively. Furthermore, evaluation on the independent pneumonitis RTOG dataset demonstrated good generalizabilty beyond institutional data in contrast with other models. This indicates that the prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing nonlinear kernel methods for discovering important nonlinear interactions among model variables. These models have the capacity to predict on unseen data. Part of this work was first presented at the Seventh International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, San Diego, CA, USA, 11-13 December 2008.

Intrinsic nonlinearity and method of disturbed observations in inverse problems of celestial mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avdyushev, Victor A.

2017-12-01

Orbit determination from a small sample of observations over a very short observed orbital arc is a strongly nonlinear inverse problem. In such problems an evaluation of orbital uncertainty due to random observation errors is greatly complicated, since linear estimations conventionally used are no longer acceptable for describing the uncertainty even as a rough approximation. Nevertheless, if an inverse problem is weakly intrinsically nonlinear, then one can resort to the so-called method of disturbed observations (aka observational Monte Carlo). Previously, we showed that the weaker the intrinsic nonlinearity, the more efficient the method, i.e. the more accurate it enables one to simulate stochastically the orbital uncertainty, while it is strictly exact only when the problem is intrinsically linear. However, as we ascertained experimentally, its efficiency was found to be higher than that of other stochastic methods widely applied in practice. In the present paper we investigate the intrinsic nonlinearity in complicated inverse problems of Celestial Mechanics when orbits are determined from little informative samples of observations, which typically occurs for recently discovered asteroids. To inquire into the question, we introduce an index of intrinsic nonlinearity. In asteroid problems it evinces that the intrinsic nonlinearity can be strong enough to affect appreciably probabilistic estimates, especially at the very short observed orbital arcs that the asteroids travel on for about a hundredth of their orbital periods and less. As it is known from regression analysis, the source of intrinsic nonlinearity is the nonflatness of the estimation subspace specified by a dynamical model in the observation space. Our numerical results indicate that when determining asteroid orbits it is actually very slight. However, in the parametric space the effect of intrinsic nonlinearity is exaggerated mainly by the ill-conditioning of the inverse problem. Even so, as for the method of disturbed observations, we conclude that it practically should be still entirely acceptable to adequately describe the orbital uncertainty since, from a geometrical point of view, the efficiency of the method directly depends only on the nonflatness of the estimation subspace and it gets higher as the nonflatness decreases.

Application of Neural Networks to Wind tunnel Data Response Surface Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lo, Ching F.; Zhao, J. L.; DeLoach, Richard

2000-01-01

The integration of nonlinear neural network methods with conventional linear regression techniques is demonstrated for representative wind tunnel force balance data modeling. This work was motivated by a desire to formulate precision intervals for response surfaces produced by neural networks. Applications are demonstrated for representative wind tunnel data acquired at NASA Langley Research Center and the Arnold Engineering Development Center in Tullahoma, TN.

An Experimental Study in Determining Energy Expenditure from Treadmill Walking using Hip-Worn Inertial Sensors

PubMed Central

Vathsangam, Harshvardhan; Emken, Adar; Schroeder, E. Todd; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Sukhatme, Gaurav S.

2011-01-01

This paper describes an experimental study in estimating energy expenditure from treadmill walking using a single hip-mounted triaxial inertial sensor comprised of a triaxial accelerometer and a triaxial gyroscope. Typical physical activity characterization using accelerometer generated counts suffers from two drawbacks - imprecison (due to proprietary counts) and incompleteness (due to incomplete movement description). We address these problems in the context of steady state walking by directly estimating energy expenditure with data from a hip-mounted inertial sensor. We represent the cyclic nature of walking with a Fourier transform of sensor streams and show how one can map this representation to energy expenditure (as measured by V O2 consumption, mL/min) using three regression techniques - Least Squares Regression (LSR), Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). We perform a comparative analysis of the accuracy of sensor streams in predicting energy expenditure (measured by RMS prediction accuracy). Triaxial information is more accurate than uniaxial information. LSR based approaches are prone to outlier sensitivity and overfitting. Gyroscopic information showed equivalent if not better prediction accuracy as compared to accelerometers. Combining accelerometer and gyroscopic information provided better accuracy than using either sensor alone. We also analyze the best algorithmic approach among linear and nonlinear methods as measured by RMS prediction accuracy and run time. Nonlinear regression methods showed better prediction accuracy but required an order of magnitude of run time. This paper emphasizes the role of probabilistic techniques in conjunction with joint modeling of triaxial accelerations and rotational rates to improve energy expenditure prediction for steady-state treadmill walking. PMID:21690001

Localization and identification of structural nonlinearities using cascaded optimization and neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koyuncu, A.; Cigeroglu, E.; Özgüven, H. N.

2017-10-01

In this study, a new approach is proposed for identification of structural nonlinearities by employing cascaded optimization and neural networks. Linear finite element model of the system and frequency response functions measured at arbitrary locations of the system are used in this approach. Using the finite element model, a training data set is created, which appropriately spans the possible nonlinear configurations space of the system. A classification neural network trained on these data sets then localizes and determines the types of all nonlinearities associated with the nonlinear degrees of freedom in the system. A new training data set spanning the parametric space associated with the determined nonlinearities is created to facilitate parametric identification. Utilizing this data set, initially, a feed forward regression neural network is trained, which parametrically identifies the classified nonlinearities. Then, the results obtained are further improved by carrying out an optimization which uses network identified values as starting points. Unlike identification methods available in literature, the proposed approach does not require data collection from the degrees of freedoms where nonlinear elements are attached, and furthermore, it is sufficiently accurate even in the presence of measurement noise. The application of the proposed approach is demonstrated on an example system with nonlinear elements and on a real life experimental setup with a local nonlinearity.

A comparative study between nonlinear regression and nonparametric approaches for modelling Phalaris paradoxa seedling emergence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Parametric non-linear regression (PNR) techniques commonly are used to develop weed seedling emergence models. Such techniques, however, require statistical assumptions that are difficult to meet. To examine and overcome these limitations, we compared PNR with a nonparametric estimation technique. F...

On neural networks in identification and control of dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phan, Minh; Juang, Jer-Nan; Hyland, David C.

1993-01-01

This paper presents a discussion of the applicability of neural networks in the identification and control of dynamic systems. Emphasis is placed on the understanding of how the neural networks handle linear systems and how the new approach is related to conventional system identification and control methods. Extensions of the approach to nonlinear systems are then made. The paper explains the fundamental concepts of neural networks in their simplest terms. Among the topics discussed are feed forward and recurrent networks in relation to the standard state-space and observer models, linear and nonlinear auto-regressive models, linear, predictors, one-step ahead control, and model reference adaptive control for linear and nonlinear systems. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the application of these important concepts.

Steganalysis using logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubenko, Ivans; Ker, Andrew D.

2011-02-01

We advocate Logistic Regression (LR) as an alternative to the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers commonly used in steganalysis. LR offers more information than traditional SVM methods - it estimates class probabilities as well as providing a simple classification - and can be adapted more easily and efficiently for multiclass problems. Like SVM, LR can be kernelised for nonlinear classification, and it shows comparable classification accuracy to SVM methods. This work is a case study, comparing accuracy and speed of SVM and LR classifiers in detection of LSB Matching and other related spatial-domain image steganography, through the state-of-art 686-dimensional SPAM feature set, in three image sets.

A LEAST ABSOLUTE SHRINKAGE AND SELECTION OPERATOR (LASSO) FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Lofberg, Johan; Brenner, Martin J.

2006-01-01

Identification of parametric nonlinear models involves estimating unknown parameters and detecting its underlying structure. Structure computation is concerned with selecting a subset of parameters to give a parsimonious description of the system which may afford greater insight into the functionality of the system or a simpler controller design. In this study, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique is investigated for computing efficient model descriptions of nonlinear systems. The LASSO minimises the residual sum of squares by the addition of a 1 penalty term on the parameter vector of the traditional 2 minimisation problem. Its use for structure detection is a natural extension of this constrained minimisation approach to pseudolinear regression problems which produces some model parameters that are exactly zero and, therefore, yields a parsimonious system description. The performance of this LASSO structure detection method was evaluated by using it to estimate the structure of a nonlinear polynomial model. Applicability of the method to more complex systems such as those encountered in aerospace applications was shown by identifying a parsimonious system description of the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing using flight test data.

[Spectral quantitative analysis by nonlinear partial least squares based on neural network internal model for flue gas of thermal power plant].

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Li, Yao-Jiang; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Yan-Xia

2014-11-01

To deal with nonlinear characteristics of spectra data for the thermal power plant flue, a nonlinear partial least square (PLS) analysis method with internal model based on neural network is adopted in the paper. The latent variables of the independent variables and the dependent variables are extracted by PLS regression firstly, and then they are used as the inputs and outputs of neural network respectively to build the nonlinear internal model by train process. For spectra data of flue gases of the thermal power plant, PLS, the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of back propagation neural network (BP-NPLS), the non-linear PLS with the internal model of radial basis function neural network (RBF-NPLS) and the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system (ANFIS-NPLS) are compared. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of sulfur dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 16.96%, 16.60% and 19.55% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitric oxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 8.60%, 8.47% and 10.09% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitrogen dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 2.11%, 3.91% and 3.97% than that of PLS, respectively. Experimental results show that the nonlinear PLS is more suitable for the quantitative analysis of glue gas than PLS. Moreover, by using neural network function which can realize high approximation of nonlinear characteristics, the nonlinear partial least squares method with internal model mentioned in this paper have well predictive capabilities and robustness, and could deal with the limitations of nonlinear partial least squares method with other internal model such as polynomial and spline functions themselves under a certain extent. ANFIS-NPLS has the best performance with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system having ability to learn more and reduce the residuals effectively. Hence, ANFIS-NPLS is an accurate and useful quantitative thermal power plant flue gas analysis method.

[Relationship between shift work and overweight/obesity in male steel workers].

PubMed

Xiao, M Y; Wang, Z Y; Fan, H M; Che, C L; Lu, Y; Cong, L X; Gao, X J; Liu, Y J; Yuan, J X; Li, X M; Hu, B; Chen, Y P

2016-11-10

Objective: To investigate the relationship between shift work and overweight/obesity in male steel workers. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted among the male steel workers selected during health examination in Tangshan Steel Company from March 2015 to March 2016. The relationship between shift work and overweight/obesity in the male steel workers were analyzed by using logistic regression model and restricted cubic splinemodel. Results: A total of 7 262 male steel workers were surveyed, the overall prevalence of overweight/obesitywas 64.5% (4 686/7 262), the overweight rate was 34.3% and the obesity rate was 30.2%, respectively. After adjusting for age, educational level and average family income level per month by multivariable logistic regression analysis, shift work was associated with overweight/obesity and obesity in the male steel workers. The OR was 1.19(95% CI : 1.05-1.35) and 1.15(95% CI : 1.00-1.32). Restricted cubic spline model analysis showed that the relationship between shift work years and overweight/obesity in the male steel workers was a nonlinear dose response one (nonlinear test χ 2 =7.43, P <0.05). Restricted cubic spline model analysis showed that the relationship between shift work years and obesity in the male steel workers was a nonlinear dose response one (nonlinear test χ 2 =10.48, P <0.05). Conclusion: Shift work was associated with overweight and obesity in the male steel workers, and shift work years and overweight/obesity had a nonlinear relationship.

Statistical inference methods for sparse biological time series data.

PubMed

Ndukum, Juliet; Fonseca, Luís L; Santos, Helena; Voit, Eberhard O; Datta, Susmita

2011-04-25

Comparing metabolic profiles under different biological perturbations has become a powerful approach to investigating the functioning of cells. The profiles can be taken as single snapshots of a system, but more information is gained if they are measured longitudinally over time. The results are short time series consisting of relatively sparse data that cannot be analyzed effectively with standard time series techniques, such as autocorrelation and frequency domain methods. In this work, we study longitudinal time series profiles of glucose consumption in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae under different temperatures and preconditioning regimens, which we obtained with methods of in vivo nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. For the statistical analysis we first fit several nonlinear mixed effect regression models to the longitudinal profiles and then used an ANOVA likelihood ratio method in order to test for significant differences between the profiles. The proposed methods are capable of distinguishing metabolic time trends resulting from different treatments and associate significance levels to these differences. Among several nonlinear mixed-effects regression models tested, a three-parameter logistic function represents the data with highest accuracy. ANOVA and likelihood ratio tests suggest that there are significant differences between the glucose consumption rate profiles for cells that had been--or had not been--preconditioned by heat during growth. Furthermore, pair-wise t-tests reveal significant differences in the longitudinal profiles for glucose consumption rates between optimal conditions and heat stress, optimal and recovery conditions, and heat stress and recovery conditions (p-values <0.0001). We have developed a nonlinear mixed effects model that is appropriate for the analysis of sparse metabolic and physiological time profiles. The model permits sound statistical inference procedures, based on ANOVA likelihood ratio tests, for testing the significance of differences between short time course data under different biological perturbations.

Critical Evaluation of Kinetic Method Measurements: Possible Origins of Nonlinear Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourgoin-Voillard, Sandrine; Afonso, Carlos; Lesage, Denis; Zins, Emilie-Laure; Tabet, Jean-Claude; Armentrout, P. B.

2013-03-01

The kinetic method is a widely used approach for the determination of thermochemical data such as proton affinities (PA) and gas-phase acidities ( ΔH° acid ). These data are easily obtained from decompositions of noncovalent heterodimers if care is taken in the choice of the method, references used, and experimental conditions. Previously, several papers have focused on theoretical considerations concerning the nature of the references. Few investigations have been devoted to conditions required to validate the quality of the experimental results. In the present work, we are interested in rationalizing the origin of nonlinear effects that can be obtained with the kinetic method. It is shown that such deviations result from intrinsic properties of the systems investigated but can also be enhanced by artifacts resulting from experimental issues. Overall, it is shown that orthogonal distance regression (ODR) analysis of kinetic method data provides the optimum way of acquiring accurate thermodynamic information.

Supervised Learning for Dynamical System Learning.

PubMed

Hefny, Ahmed; Downey, Carlton; Gordon, Geoffrey J

2015-01-01

Recently there has been substantial interest in spectral methods for learning dynamical systems. These methods are popular since they often offer a good tradeoff between computational and statistical efficiency. Unfortunately, they can be difficult to use and extend in practice: e.g., they can make it difficult to incorporate prior information such as sparsity or structure. To address this problem, we present a new view of dynamical system learning: we show how to learn dynamical systems by solving a sequence of ordinary supervised learning problems, thereby allowing users to incorporate prior knowledge via standard techniques such as L 1 regularization. Many existing spectral methods are special cases of this new framework, using linear regression as the supervised learner. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework by showing examples where nonlinear regression or lasso let us learn better state representations than plain linear regression does; the correctness of these instances follows directly from our general analysis.

Linearity versus Nonlinearity of Offspring-Parent Regression: An Experimental Study of Drosophila Melanogaster

PubMed Central

Gimelfarb, A.; Willis, J. H.

1994-01-01

An experiment was conducted to investigate the offspring-parent regression for three quantitative traits (weight, abdominal bristles and wing length) in Drosophila melanogaster. Linear and polynomial models were fitted for the regressions of a character in offspring on both parents. It is demonstrated that responses by the characters to selection predicted by the nonlinear regressions may differ substantially from those predicted by the linear regressions. This is true even, and especially, if selection is weak. The realized heritability for a character under selection is shown to be determined not only by the offspring-parent regression but also by the distribution of the character and by the form and strength of selection. PMID:7828818

Linear and nonlinear models for predicting fish bioconcentration factors for pesticides.

PubMed

Yuan, Jintao; Xie, Chun; Zhang, Ting; Sun, Jinfang; Yuan, Xuejie; Yu, Shuling; Zhang, Yingbiao; Cao, Yunyuan; Yu, Xingchen; Yang, Xuan; Yao, Wu

2016-08-01

This work is devoted to the applications of the multiple linear regression (MLR), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to quantitative structure-property relationship analysis of bioconcentration factors (BCFs) of pesticides tested on Bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Molecular descriptors of a total of 107 pesticides were calculated with the DRAGON Software and selected by inverse enhanced replacement method. Based on the selected DRAGON descriptors, a linear model was built by MLR, nonlinear models were developed using MLP NN and PPR. The robustness of the obtained models was assessed by cross-validation and external validation using test set. Outliers were also examined and deleted to improve predictive power. Comparative results revealed that PPR achieved the most accurate predictions. This study offers useful models and information for BCF prediction, risk assessment, and pesticide formulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catchments as non-linear filters: evaluating data-driven approaches for spatio-temporal predictions in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D. G.; Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Catchment and climate heterogeneity complicate prediction of runoff across time and space, and resulting parameter uncertainty can lead to large accumulated errors in hydrologic models, particularly in ungauged basins. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been shown to avoid the accumulated uncertainty associated with many physically-based models, providing an appealing alternative for hydrologic prediction. However, the effectiveness of different methods in hydrologically and geomorphically distinct catchments, and the robustness of these methods to changing climate and changing hydrologic processes remain to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of machine learning techniques to predict daily runoff across time and space using only essential climatic forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) time series as model input. Model training and testing was done using a high quality dataset of daily runoff and climate forcing data for 25+ years for 600+ minimally-disturbed catchments (drainage area range 5-25,000 km2, median size 336 km2) that cover a wide range of climatic and physical characteristics. Preliminary results using Support Vector Regression (SVR) suggest that in some catchments this nonlinear-based regression technique can accurately predict daily runoff, while the same approach fails in other catchments, indicating that the representation of climate inputs and/or catchment filter characteristics in the model structure need further refinement to increase performance. We bolster this analysis by using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (a sparse symbolic regression technique) to uncover the governing equations that describe runoff processes in catchments where SVR performed well and for ones where it performed poorly, thereby enabling inference about governing processes. This provides a robust means of examining how catchment complexity influences runoff prediction skill, and represents a contribution towards the integration of data-driven inference and physically-based models.

A comparative study between nonlinear regression and artificial neural network approaches for modelling wild oat (Avena fatua) field emergence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Non-linear regression techniques are used widely to fit weed field emergence patterns to soil microclimatic indices using S-type functions. Artificial neural networks present interesting and alternative features for such modeling purposes. In this work, a univariate hydrothermal-time based Weibull m...

Parametric analysis of the biomechanical response of head subjected to the primary blast loading--a data mining approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Feng; Kalra, Anil; Saif, Tal; Yang, Zaihan; Yang, King H; King, Albert I

2016-01-01

Traumatic brain injury due to primary blast loading has become a signature injury in recent military conflicts and terrorist activities. Extensive experimental and computational investigations have been conducted to study the interrelationships between intracranial pressure response and intrinsic or 'input' parameters such as the head geometry and loading conditions. However, these relationships are very complicated and are usually implicit and 'hidden' in a large amount of simulation/test data. In this study, a data mining method is proposed to explore such underlying information from the numerical simulation results. The heads of different species are described as a highly simplified two-part (skull and brain) finite element model with varying geometric parameters. The parameters considered include peak incident pressure, skull thickness, brain radius and snout length. Their interrelationship and coupling effect are discovered by developing a decision tree based on the large simulation data-set. The results show that the proposed data-driven method is superior to the conventional linear regression method and is comparable to the nonlinear regression method. Considering its capability of exploring implicit information and the relatively simple relationships between response and input variables, the data mining method is considered to be a good tool for an in-depth understanding of the mechanisms of blast-induced brain injury. As a general method, this approach can also be applied to other nonlinear complex biomechanical systems.

Non-linear auto-regressive models for cross-frequency coupling in neural time series

PubMed Central

Tallot, Lucille; Grabot, Laetitia; Doyère, Valérie; Grenier, Yves; Gramfort, Alexandre

2017-01-01

We address the issue of reliably detecting and quantifying cross-frequency coupling (CFC) in neural time series. Based on non-linear auto-regressive models, the proposed method provides a generative and parametric model of the time-varying spectral content of the signals. As this method models the entire spectrum simultaneously, it avoids the pitfalls related to incorrect filtering or the use of the Hilbert transform on wide-band signals. As the model is probabilistic, it also provides a score of the model “goodness of fit” via the likelihood, enabling easy and legitimate model selection and parameter comparison; this data-driven feature is unique to our model-based approach. Using three datasets obtained with invasive neurophysiological recordings in humans and rodents, we demonstrate that these models are able to replicate previous results obtained with other metrics, but also reveal new insights such as the influence of the amplitude of the slow oscillation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our parametric method can reveal neural couplings with shorter signals than non-parametric methods. We also show how the likelihood can be used to find optimal filtering parameters, suggesting new properties on the spectrum of the driving signal, but also to estimate the optimal delay between the coupled signals, enabling a directionality estimation in the coupling. PMID:29227989

Validity of the reduced-sample insulin modified frequently-sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test using the nonlinear regression approach.

PubMed

Sumner, Anne E; Luercio, Marcella F; Frempong, Barbara A; Ricks, Madia; Sen, Sabyasachi; Kushner, Harvey; Tulloch-Reid, Marshall K

2009-02-01

The disposition index, the product of the insulin sensitivity index (S(I)) and the acute insulin response to glucose, is linked in African Americans to chromosome 11q. This link was determined with S(I) calculated with the nonlinear regression approach to the minimal model and data from the reduced-sample insulin-modified frequently-sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT). However, the application of the nonlinear regression approach to calculate S(I) using data from the Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT has been challenged as being not only inaccurate but also having a high failure rate in insulin-resistant subjects. Our goal was to determine the accuracy and failure rate of the Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT using the nonlinear regression approach to the minimal model. With S(I) from the Full-Sample-IM-FSIGT considered the standard and using the nonlinear regression approach to the minimal model, we compared the agreement between S(I) from the Full- and Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT protocols. One hundred African Americans (body mass index, 31.3 +/- 7.6 kg/m(2) [mean +/- SD]; range, 19.0-56.9 kg/m(2)) had FSIGTs. Glucose (0.3 g/kg) was given at baseline. Insulin was infused from 20 to 25 minutes (total insulin dose, 0.02 U/kg). For the Full-Sample-IM-FSIGT, S(I) was calculated based on the glucose and insulin samples taken at -1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,10, 12, 14, 16, 19, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 120, 150, and 180 minutes. For the Reduced-Sample-FSIGT, S(I) was calculated based on the time points that appear in bold. Agreement was determined by Spearman correlation, concordance, and the Bland-Altman method. In addition, for both protocols, the population was divided into tertiles of S(I). Insulin resistance was defined by the lowest tertile of S(I) from the Full-Sample-IM-FSIGT. The distribution of subjects across tertiles was compared by rank order and kappa statistic. We found that the rate of failure of resolution of S(I) by the Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT was 3% (3/100). For the remaining 97 subjects, S(I) for the Full- and Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGTs were as follows: 3.76 +/- 2.41 L mU(-1) min(-1) (range, 0.58-14.50) and 4.29 +/- 2.89 L mU(-1) min(-1) (range, 0.52-14.42); relative error, 21% +/- 18%; Spearman r = 0.97; and concordance, 0.94 (both P < .001). After log transformation, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement were -0.29 and 0.53. The exact agreement for distribution of the population in the insulin-resistant tertile vs the insulin-sensitive tertiles was 92%, kappa of 0.82 +/- 0.06. Using the nonlinear regression approach and data from the Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT in subjects with a wide range of insulin sensitivity, failure to resolve S(I) occurred in only 3% of subjects. The agreement and maintenance of rank order of S(I) between protocols support the use of the nonlinear regression approach to the minimal model and the Reduced-Sample-IM-FSIGT in clinical studies.

Advanced Statistical Analyses to Reduce Inconsistency of Bond Strength Data.

PubMed

Minamino, T; Mine, A; Shintani, A; Higashi, M; Kawaguchi-Uemura, A; Kabetani, T; Hagino, R; Imai, D; Tajiri, Y; Matsumoto, M; Yatani, H

2017-11-01

This study was designed to clarify the interrelationship of factors that affect the value of microtensile bond strength (µTBS), focusing on nondestructive testing by which information of the specimens can be stored and quantified. µTBS test specimens were prepared from 10 noncarious human molars. Six factors of µTBS test specimens were evaluated: presence of voids at the interface, X-ray absorption coefficient of resin, X-ray absorption coefficient of dentin, length of dentin part, size of adhesion area, and individual differences of teeth. All specimens were observed nondestructively by optical coherence tomography and micro-computed tomography before µTBS testing. After µTBS testing, the effect of these factors on µTBS data was analyzed by the general linear model, linear mixed effects regression model, and nonlinear regression model with 95% confidence intervals. By the general linear model, a significant difference in individual differences of teeth was observed ( P < 0.001). A significantly positive correlation was shown between µTBS and length of dentin part ( P < 0.001); however, there was no significant nonlinearity ( P = 0.157). Moreover, a significantly negative correlation was observed between µTBS and size of adhesion area ( P = 0.001), with significant nonlinearity ( P = 0.014). No correlation was observed between µTBS and X-ray absorption coefficient of resin ( P = 0.147), and there was no significant nonlinearity ( P = 0.089). Additionally, a significantly positive correlation was observed between µTBS and X-ray absorption coefficient of dentin ( P = 0.022), with significant nonlinearity ( P = 0.036). A significant difference was also observed between the presence and absence of voids by linear mixed effects regression analysis. Our results showed correlations between various parameters of tooth specimens and µTBS data. To evaluate the performance of the adhesive more precisely, the effect of tooth variability and a method to reduce variation in bond strength values should also be considered.

A study of machine learning regression methods for major elemental analysis of rocks using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boucher, Thomas F.; Ozanne, Marie V.; Carmosino, Marco L.; Dyar, M. Darby; Mahadevan, Sridhar; Breves, Elly A.; Lepore, Kate H.; Clegg, Samuel M.

2015-05-01

The ChemCam instrument on the Mars Curiosity rover is generating thousands of LIBS spectra and bringing interest in this technique to public attention. The key to interpreting Mars or any other types of LIBS data are calibrations that relate laboratory standards to unknowns examined in other settings and enable predictions of chemical composition. Here, LIBS spectral data are analyzed using linear regression methods including partial least squares (PLS-1 and PLS-2), principal component regression (PCR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), elastic net, and linear support vector regression (SVR-Lin). These were compared against results from nonlinear regression methods including kernel principal component regression (K-PCR), polynomial kernel support vector regression (SVR-Py) and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) regression to discern the most effective models for interpreting chemical abundances from LIBS spectra of geological samples. The results were evaluated for 100 samples analyzed with 50 laser pulses at each of five locations averaged together. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were employed to evaluate the statistical significance of differences among the nine models using their predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) to make comparisons. For MgO, SiO2, Fe2O3, CaO, and MnO, the sparse models outperform all the others except for linear SVR, while for Na2O, K2O, TiO2, and P2O5, the sparse methods produce inferior results, likely because their emission lines in this energy range have lower transition probabilities. The strong performance of the sparse methods in this study suggests that use of dimensionality-reduction techniques as a preprocessing step may improve the performance of the linear models. Nonlinear methods tend to overfit the data and predict less accurately, while the linear methods proved to be more generalizable with better predictive performance. These results are attributed to the high dimensionality of the data (6144 channels) relative to the small number of samples studied. The best-performing models were SVR-Lin for SiO2, MgO, Fe2O3, and Na2O, lasso for Al2O3, elastic net for MnO, and PLS-1 for CaO, TiO2, and K2O. Although these differences in model performance between methods were identified, most of the models produce comparable results when p ≤ 0.05 and all techniques except kNN produced statistically-indistinguishable results. It is likely that a combination of models could be used together to yield a lower total error of prediction, depending on the requirements of the user.

Decomposing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Influenza Vaccination among the Elderly

PubMed Central

Yoo, Byung-Kwang; Hasebe, Takuya; Szilagyi, Peter G.

2015-01-01

While persistent racial/ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination have been reported among the elderly, characteristics contributing to disparities are poorly understood. This study aimed to assess characteristics associated with racial/ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination using a nonlinear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method. We performed cross-sectional multivariable logistic regression analyses for which the dependent variable was self-reported receipt of influenza vaccine during the 2010–2011 season among community dwelling non-Hispanic African-American (AA), non-Hispanic White (W), English-speaking Hispanic (EH) and Spanish-speaking Hispanic (SH) elderly, enrolled in the 2011 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) (un-weighted/weighted N= 6,095/19.2million). Using the nonlinear Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method, we assessed the relative contribution of seventeen covariates—including socio-demographic characteristics, health status, insurance, access, preference regarding healthcare, and geographic regions —to disparities in influenza vaccination. Unadjusted racial/ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination were 14.1 percentage points (pp) (W-AA disparity, p<.001), 25.7 pp (W-SH disparity, p<.001) and 0.6 pp (W-EH disparity, p>.8). The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method estimated that the unadjusted W-AA and W-SH disparities in vaccination could be reduced by only 45% even if AA and SH groups become equivalent to Whites in all covariates in multivariable regression models. The remaining 55% of disparities were attributed to (a) racial/ethnic differences in the estimated coefficients (e.g., odds ratios) in the regression models and (b) characteristics not included in the regression models. Our analysis found that only about 45% of racial/ethnic disparities in influenza vaccination among the elderly could be reduced by equalizing recognized characteristics among racial/ethnic groups. Future studies are needed to identify additional modifiable characteristics causing disparities in influenza vaccination. PMID:25900133

Does the high–tech industry consistently reduce CO{sub 2} emissions? Results from nonparametric additive regression model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Bin; Research Center of Applied Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013; Lin, Boqiang, E-mail: bqlin@xmu.edu.cn

China is currently the world's largest carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emitter. Moreover, total energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in China will continue to increase due to the rapid growth of industrialization and urbanization. Therefore, vigorously developing the high–tech industry becomes an inevitable choice to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions at the moment or in the future. However, ignoring the existing nonlinear links between economic variables, most scholars use traditional linear models to explore the impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions from an aggregate perspective. Few studies have focused on nonlinear relationships and regional differences in China. Basedmore » on panel data of 1998–2014, this study uses the nonparametric additive regression model to explore the nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry from a regional perspective. The estimated results show that the residual sum of squares (SSR) of the nonparametric additive regression model in the eastern, central and western regions are 0.693, 0.054 and 0.085 respectively, which are much less those that of the traditional linear regression model (3.158, 4.227 and 7.196). This verifies that the nonparametric additive regression model has a better fitting effect. Specifically, the high–tech industry produces an inverted “U–shaped” nonlinear impact on CO{sub 2} emissions in the eastern region, but a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in the central and western regions. Therefore, the nonlinear impact of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions in the three regions should be given adequate attention in developing effective abatement policies. - Highlights: • The nonlinear effect of the high–tech industry on CO{sub 2} emissions was investigated. • The high–tech industry yields an inverted “U–shaped” effect in the eastern region. • The high–tech industry has a positive “U–shaped” nonlinear effect in other regions. • The linear impact of the high–tech industry in the eastern region is the strongest.« less

Prediction of sweetness and amino acid content in soybean crops from hyperspectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteiro, Sildomar Takahashi; Minekawa, Yohei; Kosugi, Yukio; Akazawa, Tsuneya; Oda, Kunio

Hyperspectral image data provides a powerful tool for non-destructive crop analysis. This paper investigates a hyperspectral image data-processing method to predict the sweetness and amino acid content of soybean crops. Regression models based on artificial neural networks were developed in order to calculate the level of sucrose, glucose, fructose, and nitrogen concentrations, which can be related to the sweetness and amino acid content of vegetables. A performance analysis was conducted comparing regression models obtained using different preprocessing methods, namely, raw reflectance, second derivative, and principal components analysis. This method is demonstrated using high-resolution hyperspectral data of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the near infrared acquired from an experimental field of green vegetable soybeans. The best predictions were achieved using a nonlinear regression model of the second derivative transformed dataset. Glucose could be predicted with greater accuracy, followed by sucrose, fructose and nitrogen. The proposed method provides the possibility to provide relatively accurate maps predicting the chemical content of soybean crop fields.

Methods for scalar-on-function regression.

PubMed

Reiss, Philip T; Goldsmith, Jeff; Shang, Han Lin; Ogden, R Todd

2017-08-01

Recent years have seen an explosion of activity in the field of functional data analysis (FDA), in which curves, spectra, images, etc. are considered as basic functional data units. A central problem in FDA is how to fit regression models with scalar responses and functional data points as predictors. We review some of the main approaches to this problem, categorizing the basic model types as linear, nonlinear and nonparametric. We discuss publicly available software packages, and illustrate some of the procedures by application to a functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset.

Using Recursive Regression to Explore Nonlinear Relationships and Interactions: A Tutorial Applied to a Multicultural Education Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strang, Kenneth David

2009-01-01

This paper discusses how a seldom-used statistical procedure, recursive regression (RR), can numerically and graphically illustrate data-driven nonlinear relationships and interaction of variables. This routine falls into the family of exploratory techniques, yet a few interesting features make it a valuable compliment to factor analysis and…

The ice age cycle and the deglaciations: an application of nonlinear regression modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalgleish, A. N.; Boulton, G. S.; Renshaw, E.

2000-03-01

We have applied the nonlinear regression technique known as additivity and variance stabilisation (AVAS) to time series which reflect Earth's climate over the last 600 ka. AVAS estimates a smooth, nonlinear transform for each variable, under the assumption of an additive model. The Earth's orbital parameters and insolation variations have been used as regression variables. Analysis of the contribution of each variable shows that the deglaciations are characterised by periods of increasing obliquity and perihelion approaching the vernal equinox, but not by any systematic change in eccentricity. The magnitude of insolation changes also plays no role. By approximating the transforms we can obtain a future prediction, with a glacial maximum at 60 ka AP, and a subsequent obliquity and precession forced deglaciation.

Computational system identification of continuous-time nonlinear systems using approximate Bayesian computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnanathan, Kirubhakaran; Anderson, Sean R.; Billings, Stephen A.; Kadirkamanathan, Visakan

2016-11-01

In this paper, we derive a system identification framework for continuous-time nonlinear systems, for the first time using a simulation-focused computational Bayesian approach. Simulation approaches to nonlinear system identification have been shown to outperform regression methods under certain conditions, such as non-persistently exciting inputs and fast-sampling. We use the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithm to perform simulation-based inference of model parameters. The framework has the following main advantages: (1) parameter distributions are intrinsically generated, giving the user a clear description of uncertainty, (2) the simulation approach avoids the difficult problem of estimating signal derivatives as is common with other continuous-time methods, and (3) as noted above, the simulation approach improves identification under conditions of non-persistently exciting inputs and fast-sampling. Term selection is performed by judging parameter significance using parameter distributions that are intrinsically generated as part of the ABC procedure. The results from a numerical example demonstrate that the method performs well in noisy scenarios, especially in comparison to competing techniques that rely on signal derivative estimation.

Application of near-infrared spectroscopy in the detection of fat-soluble vitamins in premix feed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Lian Ping; Tian, Shu Li; Zheng, Xue Cong; Jiao, Peng; Jiang, Xun Peng

2018-02-01

Vitamin is the organic compound and necessary for animal physiological maintenance. The rapid determination of the content of different vitamins in premix feed can help to achieve accurate diets and efficient feeding. Compared with high-performance liquid chromatography and other wet chemical methods, near-infrared spectroscopy is a fast, non-destructive, non-polluting method. 168 samples of premix feed were collected and the contents of vitamin A, vitamin E and vitamin D3 were detected by the standard method. The near-infrared spectra of samples ranging from 10 000 to 4 000 cm-1 were obtained. Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector machine regression (SVMR) were used to construct the quantitative model. The results showed that the RMSEP of PLSR model of vitamin A, vitamin E and vitamin D3 were 0.43×107 IU/kg, 0.09×105 IU/kg and 0.17×107 IU/kg, respectively. The RMSEP of SVMR model was 0.45×107 IU/kg, 0.11×105 IU/kg and 0.18×107 IU/kg. Compared with nonlinear regression method (SVMR), linear regression method (PLSR) is more suitable for the quantitative analysis of vitamins in premix feed.

Developing a predictive tropospheric ozone model for Tabriz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, Rahman; Naghipour, Leila; Ghorbani, Mohammad A.; Smith, Michael S.; Karimi, Vahid; Farhoudi, Reza; Delafrouz, Hadi; Arvanaghi, Hadi

2013-04-01

Predictive ozone models are becoming indispensable tools by providing a capability for pollution alerts to serve people who are vulnerable to the risks. We have developed a tropospheric ozone prediction capability for Tabriz, Iran, by using the following five modeling strategies: three regression-type methods: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP); and two auto-regression-type models: Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) to implement chaos theory and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The regression-type modeling strategies explain the data in terms of: temperature, solar radiation, dew point temperature, and wind speed, by regressing present ozone values to their past values. The ozone time series are available at various time intervals, including hourly intervals, from August 2010 to March 2011. The results for MLR, ANN and GEP models are not overly good but those produced by NLP and ARIMA are promising for the establishing a forecasting capability.

Valuing the visual impact of wind farms: A calculus method for synthesizing choice experiments studies.

PubMed

Wen, Cheng; Dallimer, Martin; Carver, Steve; Ziv, Guy

2018-05-06

Despite the great potential of mitigating carbon emission, development of wind farms is often opposed by local communities due to the visual impact on landscape. A growing number of studies have applied nonmarket valuation methods like Choice Experiments (CE) to value the visual impact by eliciting respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA) for hypothetical wind farms through survey questions. Several meta-analyses have been found in the literature to synthesize results from different valuation studies, but they have various limitations related to the use of the prevailing multivariate meta-regression analysis. In this paper, we propose a new meta-analysis method to establish general functions for the relationships between the estimated WTP or WTA and three wind farm attributes, namely the distance to residential/coastal areas, the number of turbines and turbine height. This method involves establishing WTA or WTP functions for individual studies, fitting the average derivative functions and deriving the general integral functions of WTP or WTA against wind farm attributes. Results indicate that respondents in different studies consistently showed increasing WTP for moving wind farms to greater distances, which can be fitted by non-linear (natural logarithm) functions. However, divergent preferences for the number of turbines and turbine height were found in different studies. We argue that the new analysis method proposed in this paper is an alternative to the mainstream multivariate meta-regression analysis for synthesizing CE studies and the general integral functions of WTP or WTA against wind farm attributes are useful for future spatial modelling and benefit transfer studies. We also suggest that future multivariate meta-analyses should include non-linear components in the regression functions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Melamine detection by mid- and near-infrared (MIR/NIR) spectroscopy: a quick and sensitive method for dairy products analysis including liquid milk, infant formula, and milk powder.

PubMed

Balabin, Roman M; Smirnov, Sergey V

2011-07-15

Melamine (2,4,6-triamino-1,3,5-triazine) is a nitrogen-rich chemical implicated in the pet and human food recalls and in the global food safety scares involving milk products. Due to the serious health concerns associated with melamine consumption and the extensive scope of affected products, rapid and sensitive methods to detect melamine's presence are essential. We propose the use of spectroscopy data-produced by near-infrared (near-IR/NIR) and mid-infrared (mid-IR/MIR) spectroscopies, in particular-for melamine detection in complex dairy matrixes. None of the up-to-date reported IR-based methods for melamine detection has unambiguously shown its wide applicability to different dairy products as well as limit of detection (LOD) below 1 ppm on independent sample set. It was found that infrared spectroscopy is an effective tool to detect melamine in dairy products, such as infant formula, milk powder, or liquid milk. ALOD below 1 ppm (0.76±0.11 ppm) can be reached if a correct spectrum preprocessing (pretreatment) technique and a correct multivariate (MDA) algorithm-partial least squares regression (PLS), polynomial PLS (Poly-PLS), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), or least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM)-are used for spectrum analysis. The relationship between MIR/NIR spectrum of milk products and melamine content is nonlinear. Thus, nonlinear regression methods are needed to correctly predict the triazine-derivative content of milk products. It can be concluded that mid- and near-infrared spectroscopy can be regarded as a quick, sensitive, robust, and low-cost method for liquid milk, infant formula, and milk powder analysis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

2015-01-01

The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning curve of single port laparoscopic cholecystectomy determined using the non-linear ordinary least squares method based on a non-linear regression model: An analysis of 150 consecutive patients.

PubMed

Han, Hyung Joon; Choi, Sae Byeol; Park, Man Sik; Lee, Jin Suk; Kim, Wan Bae; Song, Tae Jin; Choi, Sang Yong

2011-07-01

Single port laparoscopic surgery has come to the forefront of minimally invasive surgery. For those familiar with conventional techniques, however, this type of operation demands a different type of eye/hand coordination and involves unfamiliar working instruments. Herein, the authors describe the learning curve and the clinical outcomes of single port laparoscopic cholecystectomy for 150 consecutive patients with benign gallbladder disease. All patients underwent single port laparoscopic cholecystectomy using a homemade glove port by one of five operators with different levels of experiences of laparoscopic surgery. The learning curve for each operator was fitted using the non-linear ordinary least squares method based on a non-linear regression model. Mean operating time was 77.6 ± 28.5 min. Fourteen patients (6.0%) were converted to conventional laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Complications occurred in 15 patients (10.0%), as follows: bile duct injury (n = 2), surgical site infection (n = 8), seroma (n = 2), and wound pain (n = 3). One operator achieved a learning curve plateau at 61.4 min per procedure after 8.5 cases and his time improved by 95.3 min as compared with initial operation time. Younger surgeons showed significant decreases in mean operation time and achieved stable mean operation times. In particular, younger surgeons showed significant decreases in operation times after 20 cases. Experienced laparoscopic surgeons can safely perform single port laparoscopic cholecystectomy using conventional or angled laparoscopic instruments. The present study shows that an operator can overcome the single port laparoscopic cholecystectomy learning curve in about eight cases.

A non-linear regression method for CT brain perfusion analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennink, E.; Oosterbroek, J.; Viergever, M. A.; Velthuis, B. K.; de Jong, H. W. A. M.

2015-03-01

CT perfusion (CTP) imaging allows for rapid diagnosis of ischemic stroke. Generation of perfusion maps from CTP data usually involves deconvolution algorithms providing estimates for the impulse response function in the tissue. We propose the use of a fast non-linear regression (NLR) method that we postulate has similar performance to the current academic state-of-art method (bSVD), but that has some important advantages, including the estimation of vascular permeability, improved robustness to tracer-delay, and very few tuning parameters, that are all important in stroke assessment. The aim of this study is to evaluate the fast NLR method against bSVD and a commercial clinical state-of-art method. The three methods were tested against a published digital perfusion phantom earlier used to illustrate the superiority of bSVD. In addition, the NLR and clinical methods were also tested against bSVD on 20 clinical scans. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for each of the tested methods. All three methods showed high correlation coefficients (>0.9) with the ground truth in the phantom. With respect to the clinical scans, the NLR perfusion maps showed higher correlation with bSVD than the perfusion maps from the clinical method. Furthermore, the perfusion maps showed that the fast NLR estimates are robust to tracer-delay. In conclusion, the proposed fast NLR method provides a simple and flexible way of estimating perfusion parameters from CT perfusion scans, with high correlation coefficients. This suggests that it could be a better alternative to the current clinical and academic state-of-art methods.

Finding structure in data using multivariate tree boosting

PubMed Central

Miller, Patrick J.; Lubke, Gitta H.; McArtor, Daniel B.; Bergeman, C. S.

2016-01-01

Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles such as random forests (Strobl, Malley, & Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding structure, but are difficult to interpret with multiple outcome variables which are often of interest in psychology. To find and interpret structure in data sets with multiple outcomes and many predictors (possibly exceeding the sample size), we introduce a multivariate extension to a decision tree ensemble method called gradient boosted regression trees (Friedman, 2001). Our extension, multivariate tree boosting, is a method for nonparametric regression that is useful for identifying important predictors, detecting predictors with nonlinear effects and interactions without specification of such effects, and for identifying predictors that cause two or more outcome variables to covary. We provide the R package ‘mvtboost’ to estimate, tune, and interpret the resulting model, which extends the implementation of univariate boosting in the R package ‘gbm’ (Ridgeway et al., 2015) to continuous, multivariate outcomes. To illustrate the approach, we analyze predictors of psychological well-being (Ryff & Keyes, 1995). Simulations verify that our approach identifies predictors with nonlinear effects and achieves high prediction accuracy, exceeding or matching the performance of (penalized) multivariate multiple regression and multivariate decision trees over a wide range of conditions. PMID:27918183

A Robust Bayesian Random Effects Model for Nonlinear Calibration Problems

PubMed Central

Fong, Y.; Wakefield, J.; De Rosa, S.; Frahm, N.

2013-01-01

Summary In the context of a bioassay or an immunoassay, calibration means fitting a curve, usually nonlinear, through the observations collected on a set of samples containing known concentrations of a target substance, and then using the fitted curve and observations collected on samples of interest to predict the concentrations of the target substance in these samples. Recent technological advances have greatly improved our ability to quantify minute amounts of substance from a tiny volume of biological sample. This has in turn led to a need to improve statistical methods for calibration. In this paper, we focus on developing calibration methods robust to dependent outliers. We introduce a novel normal mixture model with dependent error terms to model the experimental noise. In addition, we propose a re-parameterization of the five parameter logistic nonlinear regression model that allows us to better incorporate prior information. We examine the performance of our methods with simulation studies and show that they lead to a substantial increase in performance measured in terms of mean squared error of estimation and a measure of the average prediction accuracy. A real data example from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network Laboratory is used to illustrate the methods. PMID:22551415

The Relationship between TOC and pH with Exchangeable Heavy Metal Levels in Lithuanian Podzols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaledian, Yones; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric C.; Pundyte, Neringa; Paliulis, Dainius

2017-04-01

Heavy metals can have a negative impact on public and environmental health. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between total organic carbon (TOC) and pH with exchangeable heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn) in order to predict exchangeable heavy metal content in soils sampled near Panevėžys and Kaunas, Lithuania. Principal component regression (PCR) and nonlinear regression methods were tested to find the statistical relationship between TOC and pH with heavy metals. The results of PCR [R2 = 0.68, RMSE = 0.07] and non-linear regression [R2 = 0.74, RMSE= 0.065] (pH with TOC and exchangeable parameters) were statistically significant. However, this was not observed in the relationships of pH and TOC separately with exchangeable heavy metals. The results indicated that pH had a higher correlation with exchangeable heavy metals (non-linear regression [R2 = 0.72, RMSE= 0.066]) than TOC with heavy metals [R2 = 0.30, RMSE= 0.004]. It can be concluded that even though there was a strong relationship between TOC and pH with exchangeable metals, the metal mobility (exchangeable metals) can be explained by pH better than TOC in this study. Finally, manipulating soil pH could likely be productive to assess and control heavy metals when financial and time limitations exist (Khaledian et al. 2016). Reference(s) Khaledian Y, Pereira P, Brevik E.C, Pundyte N, Paliulis D. 2016. The Influence of Organic Carbon and pH on Heavy Metals, Potassium, and Magnesium Levels in Lithuanian Podzols. Land Degradation and Development. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2638

A comparison of two adaptive multivariate analysis methods (PLSR and ANN) for winter wheat yield forecasting using Landsat-8 OLI images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Pengfei; Jing, Qi

2017-02-01

An assumption that the non-linear method is more reasonable than the linear method when canopy reflectance is used to establish the yield prediction model was proposed and tested in this study. For this purpose, partial least squares regression (PLSR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), represented linear and non-linear analysis method, were applied and compared for wheat yield prediction. Multi-period Landsat-8 OLI images were collected at two different wheat growth stages, and a field campaign was conducted to obtain grain yields at selected sampling sites in 2014. The field data were divided into a calibration database and a testing database. Using calibration data, a cross-validation concept was introduced for the PLSR and ANN model construction to prevent over-fitting. All models were tested using the test data. The ANN yield-prediction model produced R2, RMSE and RMSE% values of 0.61, 979 kg ha-1, and 10.38%, respectively, in the testing phase, performing better than the PLSR yield-prediction model, which produced R2, RMSE, and RMSE% values of 0.39, 1211 kg ha-1, and 12.84%, respectively. Non-linear method was suggested as a better method for yield prediction.

Local Composite Quantile Regression Smoothing for Harris Recurrent Markov Processes

PubMed Central

Li, Degui; Li, Runze

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study the local polynomial composite quantile regression (CQR) smoothing method for the nonlinear and nonparametric models under the Harris recurrent Markov chain framework. The local polynomial CQR regression method is a robust alternative to the widely-used local polynomial method, and has been well studied in stationary time series. In this paper, we relax the stationarity restriction on the model, and allow that the regressors are generated by a general Harris recurrent Markov process which includes both the stationary (positive recurrent) and nonstationary (null recurrent) cases. Under some mild conditions, we establish the asymptotic theory for the proposed local polynomial CQR estimator of the mean regression function, and show that the convergence rate for the estimator in nonstationary case is slower than that in stationary case. Furthermore, a weighted type local polynomial CQR estimator is provided to improve the estimation efficiency, and a data-driven bandwidth selection is introduced to choose the optimal bandwidth involved in the nonparametric estimators. Finally, we give some numerical studies to examine the finite sample performance of the developed methodology and theory. PMID:27667894

Quantifying Vegetation Biophysical Variables from Imaging Spectroscopy Data: A Review on Retrieval Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrelst, Jochem; Malenovský, Zbyněk; Van der Tol, Christiaan; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Gastellu-Etchegorry, Jean-Philippe; Lewis, Philip; North, Peter; Moreno, Jose

2018-06-01

An unprecedented spectroscopic data stream will soon become available with forthcoming Earth-observing satellite missions equipped with imaging spectroradiometers. This data stream will open up a vast array of opportunities to quantify a diversity of biochemical and structural vegetation properties. The processing requirements for such large data streams require reliable retrieval techniques enabling the spatiotemporally explicit quantification of biophysical variables. With the aim of preparing for this new era of Earth observation, this review summarizes the state-of-the-art retrieval methods that have been applied in experimental imaging spectroscopy studies inferring all kinds of vegetation biophysical variables. Identified retrieval methods are categorized into: (1) parametric regression, including vegetation indices, shape indices and spectral transformations; (2) nonparametric regression, including linear and nonlinear machine learning regression algorithms; (3) physically based, including inversion of radiative transfer models (RTMs) using numerical optimization and look-up table approaches; and (4) hybrid regression methods, which combine RTM simulations with machine learning regression methods. For each of these categories, an overview of widely applied methods with application to mapping vegetation properties is given. In view of processing imaging spectroscopy data, a critical aspect involves the challenge of dealing with spectral multicollinearity. The ability to provide robust estimates, retrieval uncertainties and acceptable retrieval processing speed are other important aspects in view of operational processing. Recommendations towards new-generation spectroscopy-based processing chains for operational production of biophysical variables are given.

Effect of Malmquist bias on correlation studies with IRAS data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verter, Frances

1993-01-01

The relationships between galaxy properties in the sample of Trinchieri et al. (1989) are reexamined with corrections for Malmquist bias. The linear correlations are tested and linear regressions are fit for log-log plots of L(FIR), L(H-alpha), and L(B) as well as ratios of these quantities. The linear correlations for Malmquist bias are corrected using the method of Verter (1988), in which each galaxy observation is weighted by the inverse of its sampling volume. The linear regressions are corrected for Malmquist bias by a new method invented here in which each galaxy observation is weighted by its sampling volume. The results of correlation and regressions among the sample are significantly changed in the anticipated sense that the corrected correlation confidences are lower and the corrected slopes of the linear regressions are lower. The elimination of Malmquist bias eliminates the nonlinear rise in luminosity that has caused some authors to hypothesize additional components of FIR emission.

Using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and random forests to analyze attrition: Results from two simulations.

PubMed

Hayes, Timothy; Usami, Satoshi; Jacobucci, Ross; McArdle, John J

2015-12-01

In this article, we describe a recent development in the analysis of attrition: using classification and regression trees (CART) and random forest methods to generate inverse sampling weights. These flexible machine learning techniques have the potential to capture complex nonlinear, interactive selection models, yet to our knowledge, their performance in the missing data analysis context has never been evaluated. To assess the potential benefits of these methods, we compare their performance with commonly employed multiple imputation and complete case techniques in 2 simulations. These initial results suggest that weights computed from pruned CART analyses performed well in terms of both bias and efficiency when compared with other methods. We discuss the implications of these findings for applied researchers. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Random Forests to Analyze Attrition: Results From Two Simulations

PubMed Central

Hayes, Timothy; Usami, Satoshi; Jacobucci, Ross; McArdle, John J.

2016-01-01

In this article, we describe a recent development in the analysis of attrition: using classification and regression trees (CART) and random forest methods to generate inverse sampling weights. These flexible machine learning techniques have the potential to capture complex nonlinear, interactive selection models, yet to our knowledge, their performance in the missing data analysis context has never been evaluated. To assess the potential benefits of these methods, we compare their performance with commonly employed multiple imputation and complete case techniques in 2 simulations. These initial results suggest that weights computed from pruned CART analyses performed well in terms of both bias and efficiency when compared with other methods. We discuss the implications of these findings for applied researchers. PMID:26389526

Omnibus Risk Assessment via Accelerated Failure Time Kernel Machine Modeling

PubMed Central

Sinnott, Jennifer A.; Cai, Tianxi

2013-01-01

Summary Integrating genomic information with traditional clinical risk factors to improve the prediction of disease outcomes could profoundly change the practice of medicine. However, the large number of potential markers and possible complexity of the relationship between markers and disease make it difficult to construct accurate risk prediction models. Standard approaches for identifying important markers often rely on marginal associations or linearity assumptions and may not capture non-linear or interactive effects. In recent years, much work has been done to group genes into pathways and networks. Integrating such biological knowledge into statistical learning could potentially improve model interpretability and reliability. One effective approach is to employ a kernel machine (KM) framework, which can capture nonlinear effects if nonlinear kernels are used (Scholkopf and Smola, 2002; Liu et al., 2007, 2008). For survival outcomes, KM regression modeling and testing procedures have been derived under a proportional hazards (PH) assumption (Li and Luan, 2003; Cai et al., 2011). In this paper, we derive testing and prediction methods for KM regression under the accelerated failure time model, a useful alternative to the PH model. We approximate the null distribution of our test statistic using resampling procedures. When multiple kernels are of potential interest, it may be unclear in advance which kernel to use for testing and estimation. We propose a robust Omnibus Test that combines information across kernels, and an approach for selecting the best kernel for estimation. The methods are illustrated with an application in breast cancer. PMID:24328713

Multivariate Boosting for Integrative Analysis of High-Dimensional Cancer Genomic Data

PubMed Central

Xiong, Lie; Kuan, Pei-Fen; Tian, Jianan; Keles, Sunduz; Wang, Sijian

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel multivariate component-wise boosting method for fitting multivariate response regression models under the high-dimension, low sample size setting. Our method is motivated by modeling the association among different biological molecules based on multiple types of high-dimensional genomic data. Particularly, we are interested in two applications: studying the influence of DNA copy number alterations on RNA transcript levels and investigating the association between DNA methylation and gene expression. For this purpose, we model the dependence of the RNA expression levels on DNA copy number alterations and the dependence of gene expression on DNA methylation through multivariate regression models and utilize boosting-type method to handle the high dimensionality as well as model the possible nonlinear associations. The performance of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulation studies. Finally, our multivariate boosting method is applied to two breast cancer studies. PMID:26609213

Simulation Analysis of Helicopter Ground Resonance Nonlinear Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yan; Lu, Yu-hui; Ling, Ai-min

2017-07-01

In order to accurately predict the dynamic instability of helicopter ground resonance, a modeling and simulation method of helicopter ground resonance considering nonlinear dynamic characteristics of components (rotor lead-lag damper, landing gear wheel and absorber) is presented. The numerical integral method is used to calculate the transient responses of the body and rotor, simulating some disturbance. To obtain quantitative instabilities, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) is conducted to estimate the modal frequencies, and the mobile rectangular window method is employed in the predictions of the modal damping in terms of the response time history. Simulation results show that ground resonance simulation test can exactly lead up the blade lead-lag regressing mode frequency, and the modal damping obtained according to attenuation curves are close to the test results. The simulation test results are in accordance with the actual accident situation, and prove the correctness of the simulation method. This analysis method used for ground resonance simulation test can give out the results according with real helicopter engineering tests.

Using GA-Ridge regression to select hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

PubMed

Ahn, Jae Joon; Kim, Young Min; Yoo, Keunje; Park, Joonhong; Oh, Kyong Joo

2012-11-01

For groundwater conservation and management, it is important to accurately assess groundwater pollution vulnerability. This study proposed an integrated model using ridge regression and a genetic algorithm (GA) to effectively select the major hydro-geological parameters influencing groundwater pollution vulnerability in an aquifer. The GA-Ridge regression method determined that depth to water, net recharge, topography, and the impact of vadose zone media were the hydro-geological parameters that influenced trichloroethene pollution vulnerability in a Korean aquifer. When using these selected hydro-geological parameters, the accuracy was improved for various statistical nonlinear and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, such as multinomial logistic regression, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and case-based reasoning. These results provide a proof of concept that the GA-Ridge regression is effective at determining influential hydro-geological parameters for the pollution vulnerability of an aquifer, and in turn, improves the AI performance in assessing groundwater pollution vulnerability.

Bootstrap evaluation of a young Douglas-fir height growth model for the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

Nicholas R. Vaughn; Eric C. Turnblom; Martin W. Ritchie

2010-01-01

We evaluated the stability of a complex regression model developed to predict the annual height growth of young Douglas-fir. This model is highly nonlinear and is fit in an iterative manner for annual growth coefficients from data with multiple periodic remeasurement intervals. The traditional methods for such a sensitivity analysis either involve laborious math or...

Feasibility of using near infrared spectroscopy to detect and quantify an adulterant in high quality sandalwood oil.

PubMed

Kuriakose, Saji; Joe, I Hubert

2013-11-01

Determination of the authenticity of essential oils has become more significant, in recent years, following some illegal adulteration and contamination scandals. The present investigative study focuses on the application of near infrared spectroscopy to detect sample authenticity and quantify economic adulteration of sandalwood oils. Several data pre-treatments are investigated for calibration and prediction using partial least square regression (PLSR). The quantitative data analysis is done using a new spectral approach - full spectrum or sequential spectrum. The optimum number of PLS components is obtained according to the lowest root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC=0.00009% v/v). The lowest root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP=0.00016% v/v) in the test set and the highest coefficient of determination (R(2)=0.99989) are used as the evaluation tools for the best model. A nonlinear method, locally weighted regression (LWR), is added to extract nonlinear information and to compare with the linear PLSR model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Critical Analysis of Dual-Probe Heat-Pulse Technique Applied to Measuring Thermal Diffusivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bovesecchi, G.; Coppa, P.; Corasaniti, S.; Potenza, M.

2018-07-01

The paper presents an analysis of the experimental parameters involved in application of the dual-probe heat pulse technique, followed by a critical review of methods for processing thermal response data (e.g., maximum detection and nonlinear least square regression) and the consequent obtainable uncertainty. Glycerol was selected as testing liquid, and its thermal diffusivity was evaluated over the temperature range from - 20 °C to 60 °C. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess the uncertainty propagation for maximum detection. It was concluded that maximum detection approach to process thermal response data gives the closest results to the reference data inasmuch nonlinear regression results are affected by major uncertainties due to partial correlation between the evaluated parameters. Besides, the interpolation of temperature data with a polynomial to find the maximum leads to a systematic difference between measured and reference data, as put into evidence by the Monte Carlo simulations; through its correction, this systematic error can be reduced to a negligible value, about 0.8 %.

Feasibility of using near infrared spectroscopy to detect and quantify an adulterant in high quality sandalwood oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuriakose, Saji; Joe, I. Hubert

2013-11-01

Determination of the authenticity of essential oils has become more significant, in recent years, following some illegal adulteration and contamination scandals. The present investigative study focuses on the application of near infrared spectroscopy to detect sample authenticity and quantify economic adulteration of sandalwood oils. Several data pre-treatments are investigated for calibration and prediction using partial least square regression (PLSR). The quantitative data analysis is done using a new spectral approach - full spectrum or sequential spectrum. The optimum number of PLS components is obtained according to the lowest root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC = 0.00009% v/v). The lowest root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP = 0.00016% v/v) in the test set and the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.99989) are used as the evaluation tools for the best model. A nonlinear method, locally weighted regression (LWR), is added to extract nonlinear information and to compare with the linear PLSR model.

Two-dimensional advective transport in ground-water flow parameter estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderman, E.R.; Hill, M.C.; Poeter, E.P.

1996-01-01

Nonlinear regression is useful in ground-water flow parameter estimation, but problems of parameter insensitivity and correlation often exist given commonly available hydraulic-head and head-dependent flow (for example, stream and lake gain or loss) observations. To address this problem, advective-transport observations are added to the ground-water flow, parameter-estimation model MODFLOWP using particle-tracking methods. The resulting model is used to investigate the importance of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Otis Air Force Base, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. The analysis procedure for evaluating the probable effect of new observations on the regression results consists of two steps: (1) parameter sensitivities and correlations calculated at initial parameter values are used to assess the model parameterization and expected relative contributions of different types of observations to the regression; and (2) optimal parameter values are estimated by nonlinear regression and evaluated. In the Cape Cod parameter-estimation model, advective-transport observations did not significantly increase the overall parameter sensitivity; however: (1) inclusion of advective-transport observations decreased parameter correlation enough for more unique parameter values to be estimated by the regression; (2) realistic uncertainties in advective-transport observations had a small effect on parameter estimates relative to the precision with which the parameters were estimated; and (3) the regression results and sensitivity analysis provided insight into the dynamics of the ground-water flow system, especially the importance of accurate boundary conditions. In this work, advective-transport observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation of ground-water flow parameters, and use of regression and related techniques produced significant insight into the physical system.

Detecting influential observations in nonlinear regression modeling of groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.

1998-01-01

Nonlinear regression is used to estimate optimal parameter values in models of groundwater flow to ensure that differences between predicted and observed heads and flows do not result from nonoptimal parameter values. Parameter estimates can be affected, however, by observations that disproportionately influence the regression, such as outliers that exert undue leverage on the objective function. Certain statistics developed for linear regression can be used to detect influential observations in nonlinear regression if the models are approximately linear. This paper discusses the application of Cook's D, which measures the effect of omitting a single observation on a set of estimated parameter values, and the statistical parameter DFBETAS, which quantifies the influence of an observation on each parameter. The influence statistics were used to (1) identify the influential observations in the calibration of a three-dimensional, groundwater flow model of a fractured-rock aquifer through nonlinear regression, and (2) quantify the effect of omitting influential observations on the set of estimated parameter values. Comparison of the spatial distribution of Cook's D with plots of model sensitivity shows that influential observations correspond to areas where the model heads are most sensitive to certain parameters, and where predicted groundwater flow rates are largest. Five of the six discharge observations were identified as influential, indicating that reliable measurements of groundwater flow rates are valuable data in model calibration. DFBETAS are computed and examined for an alternative model of the aquifer system to identify a parameterization error in the model design that resulted in overestimation of the effect of anisotropy on horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

Meta-analytical synthesis of regression coefficients under different categorization scheme of continuous covariates.

PubMed

Yoneoka, Daisuke; Henmi, Masayuki

2017-11-30

Recently, the number of clinical prediction models sharing the same regression task has increased in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies that use the results of these regression models have not been sufficiently studied, particularly in meta-analysis settings where only regression coefficients are available. One of the difficulties lies in the differences between the categorization schemes of continuous covariates across different studies. In general, categorization methods using cutoff values are study specific across available models, even if they focus on the same covariates of interest. Differences in the categorization of covariates could lead to serious bias in the estimated regression coefficients and thus in subsequent syntheses. To tackle this issue, we developed synthesis methods for linear regression models with different categorization schemes of covariates. A 2-step approach to aggregate the regression coefficient estimates is proposed. The first step is to estimate the joint distribution of covariates by introducing a latent sampling distribution, which uses one set of individual participant data to estimate the marginal distribution of covariates with categorization. The second step is to use a nonlinear mixed-effects model with correction terms for the bias due to categorization to estimate the overall regression coefficients. Especially in terms of precision, numerical simulations show that our approach outperforms conventional methods, which only use studies with common covariates or ignore the differences between categorization schemes. The method developed in this study is also applied to a series of WHO epidemiologic studies on white blood cell counts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Super-resolution method for face recognition using nonlinear mappings on coherent features.

PubMed

Huang, Hua; He, Huiting

2011-01-01

Low-resolution (LR) of face images significantly decreases the performance of face recognition. To address this problem, we present a super-resolution method that uses nonlinear mappings to infer coherent features that favor higher recognition of the nearest neighbor (NN) classifiers for recognition of single LR face image. Canonical correlation analysis is applied to establish the coherent subspaces between the principal component analysis (PCA) based features of high-resolution (HR) and LR face images. Then, a nonlinear mapping between HR/LR features can be built by radial basis functions (RBFs) with lower regression errors in the coherent feature space than in the PCA feature space. Thus, we can compute super-resolved coherent features corresponding to an input LR image according to the trained RBF model efficiently and accurately. And, face identity can be obtained by feeding these super-resolved features to a simple NN classifier. Extensive experiments on the Facial Recognition Technology, University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology, and Olivetti Research Laboratory databases show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art face recognition algorithms for single LR image in terms of both recognition rate and robustness to facial variations of pose and expression.

Confidence limits for data mining models of options prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Healy, J. V.; Dixon, M.; Read, B. J.; Cai, F. F.

2004-12-01

Non-parametric methods such as artificial neural nets can successfully model prices of financial options, out-performing the Black-Scholes analytic model (Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 219). However, the accuracy of such approaches is usually expressed only by a global fitting/error measure. This paper describes a robust method for determining prediction intervals for models derived by non-linear regression. We have demonstrated it by application to a standard synthetic example (29th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Special Session on Intelligent Systems, pp. 1926-1931). The method is used here to obtain prediction intervals for option prices using market data for LIFFE “ESX” FTSE 100 index options ( http://www.liffe.com/liffedata/contracts/month_onmonth.xls). We avoid special neural net architectures and use standard regression procedures to determine local error bars. The method is appropriate for target data with non constant variance (or volatility).

Discrete wavelength selection for the optical readout of a metamaterial biosensing system for glucose concentration estimation via a support vector regression model.

PubMed

Teutsch, T; Mesch, M; Giessen, H; Tarin, C

2015-01-01

In this contribution, a method to select discrete wavelengths that allow an accurate estimation of the glucose concentration in a biosensing system based on metamaterials is presented. The sensing concept is adapted to the particular application of ophthalmic glucose sensing by covering the metamaterial with a glucose-sensitive hydrogel and the sensor readout is performed optically. Due to the fact that in a mobile context a spectrometer is not suitable, few discrete wavelengths must be selected to estimate the glucose concentration. The developed selection methods are based on nonlinear support vector regression (SVR) models. Two selection methods are compared and it is shown that wavelengths selected by a sequential forward feature selection algorithm achieves an estimation improvement. The presented method can be easily applied to different metamaterial layouts and hydrogel configurations.

Demonstration of leapfrogging for implementing nonlinear model predictive control on a heat exchanger.

PubMed

Sridhar, Upasana Manimegalai; Govindarajan, Anand; Rhinehart, R Russell

2016-01-01

This work reveals the applicability of a relatively new optimization technique, Leapfrogging, for both nonlinear regression modeling and a methodology for nonlinear model-predictive control. Both are relatively simple, yet effective. The application on a nonlinear, pilot-scale, shell-and-tube heat exchanger reveals practicability of the techniques. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel approach for prediction of tacrolimus blood concentration in liver transplantation patients in the intensive care unit through support vector regression.

PubMed

Van Looy, Stijn; Verplancke, Thierry; Benoit, Dominique; Hoste, Eric; Van Maele, Georges; De Turck, Filip; Decruyenaere, Johan

2007-01-01

Tacrolimus is an important immunosuppressive drug for organ transplantation patients. It has a narrow therapeutic range, toxic side effects, and a blood concentration with wide intra- and interindividual variability. Hence, it is of the utmost importance to monitor tacrolimus blood concentration, thereby ensuring clinical effect and avoiding toxic side effects. Prediction models for tacrolimus blood concentration can improve clinical care by optimizing monitoring of these concentrations, especially in the initial phase after transplantation during intensive care unit (ICU) stay. This is the first study in the ICU in which support vector machines, as a new data modeling technique, are investigated and tested in their prediction capabilities of tacrolimus blood concentration. Linear support vector regression (SVR) and nonlinear radial basis function (RBF) SVR are compared with multiple linear regression (MLR). Tacrolimus blood concentrations, together with 35 other relevant variables from 50 liver transplantation patients, were extracted from our ICU database. This resulted in a dataset of 457 blood samples, on average between 9 and 10 samples per patient, finally resulting in a database of more than 16,000 data values. Nonlinear RBF SVR, linear SVR, and MLR were performed after selection of clinically relevant input variables and model parameters. Differences between observed and predicted tacrolimus blood concentrations were calculated. Prediction accuracy of the three methods was compared after fivefold cross-validation (Friedman test and Wilcoxon signed rank analysis). Linear SVR and nonlinear RBF SVR had mean absolute differences between observed and predicted tacrolimus blood concentrations of 2.31 ng/ml (standard deviation [SD] 2.47) and 2.38 ng/ml (SD 2.49), respectively. MLR had a mean absolute difference of 2.73 ng/ml (SD 3.79). The difference between linear SVR and MLR was statistically significant (p < 0.001). RBF SVR had the advantage of requiring only 2 input variables to perform this prediction in comparison to 15 and 16 variables needed by linear SVR and MLR, respectively. This is an indication of the superior prediction capability of nonlinear SVR. Prediction of tacrolimus blood concentration with linear and nonlinear SVR was excellent, and accuracy was superior in comparison with an MLR model.

Reconstructing latent dynamical noise for better forecasting observables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, Yoshito

2018-03-01

I propose a method for reconstructing multi-dimensional dynamical noise inspired by the embedding theorem of Muldoon et al. [Dyn. Stab. Syst. 13, 175 (1998)] by regarding multiple predictions as different observables. Then, applying the embedding theorem by Stark et al. [J. Nonlinear Sci. 13, 519 (2003)] for a forced system, I produce time series forecast by supplying the reconstructed past dynamical noise as auxiliary information. I demonstrate the proposed method on toy models driven by auto-regressive models or independent Gaussian noise.

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations.

PubMed

Rudy, Samuel H; Brunton, Steven L; Proctor, Joshua L; Kutz, J Nathan

2017-04-01

We propose a sparse regression method capable of discovering the governing partial differential equation(s) of a given system by time series measurements in the spatial domain. The regression framework relies on sparsity-promoting techniques to select the nonlinear and partial derivative terms of the governing equations that most accurately represent the data, bypassing a combinatorially large search through all possible candidate models. The method balances model complexity and regression accuracy by selecting a parsimonious model via Pareto analysis. Time series measurements can be made in an Eulerian framework, where the sensors are fixed spatially, or in a Lagrangian framework, where the sensors move with the dynamics. The method is computationally efficient, robust, and demonstrated to work on a variety of canonical problems spanning a number of scientific domains including Navier-Stokes, the quantum harmonic oscillator, and the diffusion equation. Moreover, the method is capable of disambiguating between potentially nonunique dynamical terms by using multiple time series taken with different initial data. Thus, for a traveling wave, the method can distinguish between a linear wave equation and the Korteweg-de Vries equation, for instance. The method provides a promising new technique for discovering governing equations and physical laws in parameterized spatiotemporal systems, where first-principles derivations are intractable.

Parameterizing sorption isotherms using a hybrid global-local fitting procedure.

PubMed

Matott, L Shawn; Singh, Anshuman; Rabideau, Alan J

2017-05-01

Predictive modeling of the transport and remediation of groundwater contaminants requires an accurate description of the sorption process, which is usually provided by fitting an isotherm model to site-specific laboratory data. Commonly used calibration procedures, listed in order of increasing sophistication, include: trial-and-error, linearization, non-linear regression, global search, and hybrid global-local search. Given the considerable variability in fitting procedures applied in published isotherm studies, we investigated the importance of algorithm selection through a series of numerical experiments involving 13 previously published sorption datasets. These datasets, considered representative of state-of-the-art for isotherm experiments, had been previously analyzed using trial-and-error, linearization, or non-linear regression methods. The isotherm expressions were re-fit using a 3-stage hybrid global-local search procedure (i.e. global search using particle swarm optimization followed by Powell's derivative free local search method and Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg non-linear regression). The re-fitted expressions were then compared to previously published fits in terms of the optimized weighted sum of squared residuals (WSSR) fitness function, the final estimated parameters, and the influence on contaminant transport predictions - where easily computed concentration-dependent contaminant retardation factors served as a surrogate measure of likely transport behavior. Results suggest that many of the previously published calibrated isotherm parameter sets were local minima. In some cases, the updated hybrid global-local search yielded order-of-magnitude reductions in the fitness function. In particular, of the candidate isotherms, the Polanyi-type models were most likely to benefit from the use of the hybrid fitting procedure. In some cases, improvements in fitness function were associated with slight (<10%) changes in parameter values, but in other cases significant (>50%) changes in parameter values were noted. Despite these differences, the influence of isotherm misspecification on contaminant transport predictions was quite variable and difficult to predict from inspection of the isotherms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A robust background regression based score estimation algorithm for hyperspectral anomaly detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Rui; Du, Bo; Zhang, Liangpei; Zhang, Lefei

2016-12-01

Anomaly detection has become a hot topic in the hyperspectral image analysis and processing fields in recent years. The most important issue for hyperspectral anomaly detection is the background estimation and suppression. Unreasonable or non-robust background estimation usually leads to unsatisfactory anomaly detection results. Furthermore, the inherent nonlinearity of hyperspectral images may cover up the intrinsic data structure in the anomaly detection. In order to implement robust background estimation, as well as to explore the intrinsic data structure of the hyperspectral image, we propose a robust background regression based score estimation algorithm (RBRSE) for hyperspectral anomaly detection. The Robust Background Regression (RBR) is actually a label assignment procedure which segments the hyperspectral data into a robust background dataset and a potential anomaly dataset with an intersection boundary. In the RBR, a kernel expansion technique, which explores the nonlinear structure of the hyperspectral data in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, is utilized to formulate the data as a density feature representation. A minimum squared loss relationship is constructed between the data density feature and the corresponding assigned labels of the hyperspectral data, to formulate the foundation of the regression. Furthermore, a manifold regularization term which explores the manifold smoothness of the hyperspectral data, and a maximization term of the robust background average density, which suppresses the bias caused by the potential anomalies, are jointly appended in the RBR procedure. After this, a paired-dataset based k-nn score estimation method is undertaken on the robust background and potential anomaly datasets, to implement the detection output. The experimental results show that RBRSE achieves superior ROC curves, AUC values, and background-anomaly separation than some of the other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods, and is easy to implement in practice.

Comparative evaluation of adsorption kinetics of diclofenac and isoproturon by activated carbon.

PubMed

Torrellas, Silvia A; Rodriguez, Araceli R; Escudero, Gabriel O; Martín, José María G; Rodriguez, Juan G

2015-01-01

Adsorption mechanism of diclofenac and isoproturon onto activated carbon has been proposed using Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Adsorption capacity and optimum adsorption isotherms were predicted by nonlinear regression method. Different kinetic equations, pseudo-first-order, pseudo-second-order, intraparticle diffusion model and Bangham kinetic model, were applied to study the adsorption kinetics of emerging contaminants on activated carbon in two aqueous matrices.

Rapid prediction of total petroleum hydrocarbons concentration in contaminated soil using vis-NIR spectroscopy and regression techniques.

PubMed

Douglas, R K; Nawar, S; Alamar, M C; Mouazen, A M; Coulon, F

2018-03-01

Visible and near infrared spectrometry (vis-NIRS) coupled with data mining techniques can offer fast and cost-effective quantitative measurement of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in contaminated soils. Literature showed however significant differences in the performance on the vis-NIRS between linear and non-linear calibration methods. This study compared the performance of linear partial least squares regression (PLSR) with a nonlinear random forest (RF) regression for the calibration of vis-NIRS when analysing TPH in soils. 88 soil samples (3 uncontaminated and 85 contaminated) collected from three sites located in the Niger Delta were scanned using an analytical spectral device (ASD) spectrophotometer (350-2500nm) in diffuse reflectance mode. Sequential ultrasonic solvent extraction-gas chromatography (SUSE-GC) was used as reference quantification method for TPH which equal to the sum of aliphatic and aromatic fractions ranging between C 10 and C 35 . Prior to model development, spectra were subjected to pre-processing including noise cut, maximum normalization, first derivative and smoothing. Then 65 samples were selected as calibration set and the remaining 20 samples as validation set. Both vis-NIR spectrometry and gas chromatography profiles of the 85 soil samples were subjected to RF and PLSR with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) for the calibration models. Results showed that RF calibration model with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.85, a root means square error of prediction (RMSEP) 68.43mgkg -1 , and a residual prediction deviation (RPD) of 2.61 outperformed PLSR (R 2 =0.63, RMSEP=107.54mgkg -1 and RDP=2.55) in cross-validation. These results indicate that RF modelling approach is accounting for the nonlinearity of the soil spectral responses hence, providing significantly higher prediction accuracy compared to the linear PLSR. It is recommended to adopt the vis-NIRS coupled with RF modelling approach as a portable and cost effective method for the rapid quantification of TPH in soils. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust ridge regression estimators for nonlinear models with applications to high throughput screening assay data.

PubMed

Lim, Changwon

2015-03-30

Nonlinear regression is often used to evaluate the toxicity of a chemical or a drug by fitting data from a dose-response study. Toxicologists and pharmacologists may draw a conclusion about whether a chemical is toxic by testing the significance of the estimated parameters. However, sometimes the null hypothesis cannot be rejected even though the fit is quite good. One possible reason for such cases is that the estimated standard errors of the parameter estimates are extremely large. In this paper, we propose robust ridge regression estimation procedures for nonlinear models to solve this problem. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated; in particular, their mean squared errors are derived. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with several standard estimators using simulation studies. The proposed methodology is also illustrated using high throughput screening assay data obtained from the National Toxicology Program. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between age and elite marathon race time in world single age records from 5 to 93 years

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The aims of the study were (i) to investigate the relationship between elite marathon race times and age in 1-year intervals by using the world single age records in marathon running from 5 to 93 years and (ii) to evaluate the sex difference in elite marathon running performance with advancing age. Methods World single age records in marathon running in 1-year intervals for women and men were analysed regarding changes across age for both men and women using linear and non-linear regression analyses for each age for women and men. Results The relationship between elite marathon race time and age was non-linear (i.e. polynomial regression 4th degree) for women and men. The curve was U-shaped where performance improved from 5 to ~20 years. From 5 years to ~15 years, boys and girls performed very similar. Between ~20 and ~35 years, performance was quite linear, but started to decrease at the age of ~35 years in a curvilinear manner with increasing age in both women and men. The sex difference increased non-linearly (i.e. polynomial regression 7th degree) from 5 to ~20 years, remained unchanged at ~20 min from ~20 to ~50 years and increased thereafter. The sex difference was lowest (7.5%, 10.5 min) at the age of 49 years. Conclusion Elite marathon race times improved from 5 to ~20 years, remained linear between ~20 and ~35 years, and started to increase at the age of ~35 years in a curvilinear manner with increasing age in both women and men. The sex difference in elite marathon race time increased non-linearly and was lowest at the age of ~49 years. PMID:25120915

Simultaneous determination of penicillin G salts by infrared spectroscopy: Evaluation of combining orthogonal signal correction with radial basis function-partial least squares regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talebpour, Zahra; Tavallaie, Roya; Ahmadi, Seyyed Hamid; Abdollahpour, Assem

2010-09-01

In this study, a new method for the simultaneous determination of penicillin G salts in pharmaceutical mixture via FT-IR spectroscopy combined with chemometrics was investigated. The mixture of penicillin G salts is a complex system due to similar analytical characteristics of components. Partial least squares (PLS) and radial basis function-partial least squares (RBF-PLS) were used to develop the linear and nonlinear relation between spectra and components, respectively. The orthogonal signal correction (OSC) preprocessing method was used to correct unexpected information, such as spectral overlapping and scattering effects. In order to compare the influence of OSC on PLS and RBF-PLS models, the optimal linear (PLS) and nonlinear (RBF-PLS) models based on conventional and OSC preprocessed spectra were established and compared. The obtained results demonstrated that OSC clearly enhanced the performance of both RBF-PLS and PLS calibration models. Also in the case of some nonlinear relation between spectra and component, OSC-RBF-PLS gave satisfactory results than OSC-PLS model which indicated that the OSC was helpful to remove extrinsic deviations from linearity without elimination of nonlinear information related to component. The chemometric models were tested on an external dataset and finally applied to the analysis commercialized injection product of penicillin G salts.

A Learning Progression Should Address Regression: Insights from Developing Non-Linear Reasoning in Ecology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hovardas, Tasos

2016-01-01

Although ecological systems at varying scales involve non-linear interactions, learners insist thinking in a linear fashion when they deal with ecological phenomena. The overall objective of the present contribution was to propose a hypothetical learning progression for developing non-linear reasoning in prey-predator systems and to provide…

Classification and regression tree analysis vs. multivariable linear and logistic regression methods as statistical tools for studying haemophilia.

PubMed

Henrard, S; Speybroeck, N; Hermans, C

2015-11-01

Haemophilia is a rare genetic haemorrhagic disease characterized by partial or complete deficiency of coagulation factor VIII, for haemophilia A, or IX, for haemophilia B. As in any other medical research domain, the field of haemophilia research is increasingly concerned with finding factors associated with binary or continuous outcomes through multivariable models. Traditional models include multiple logistic regressions, for binary outcomes, and multiple linear regressions for continuous outcomes. Yet these regression models are at times difficult to implement, especially for non-statisticians, and can be difficult to interpret. The present paper sought to didactically explain how, why, and when to use classification and regression tree (CART) analysis for haemophilia research. The CART method is non-parametric and non-linear, based on the repeated partitioning of a sample into subgroups based on a certain criterion. Breiman developed this method in 1984. Classification trees (CTs) are used to analyse categorical outcomes and regression trees (RTs) to analyse continuous ones. The CART methodology has become increasingly popular in the medical field, yet only a few examples of studies using this methodology specifically in haemophilia have to date been published. Two examples using CART analysis and previously published in this field are didactically explained in details. There is increasing interest in using CART analysis in the health domain, primarily due to its ease of implementation, use, and interpretation, thus facilitating medical decision-making. This method should be promoted for analysing continuous or categorical outcomes in haemophilia, when applicable. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Omnibus risk assessment via accelerated failure time kernel machine modeling.

PubMed

Sinnott, Jennifer A; Cai, Tianxi

2013-12-01

Integrating genomic information with traditional clinical risk factors to improve the prediction of disease outcomes could profoundly change the practice of medicine. However, the large number of potential markers and possible complexity of the relationship between markers and disease make it difficult to construct accurate risk prediction models. Standard approaches for identifying important markers often rely on marginal associations or linearity assumptions and may not capture non-linear or interactive effects. In recent years, much work has been done to group genes into pathways and networks. Integrating such biological knowledge into statistical learning could potentially improve model interpretability and reliability. One effective approach is to employ a kernel machine (KM) framework, which can capture nonlinear effects if nonlinear kernels are used (Scholkopf and Smola, 2002; Liu et al., 2007, 2008). For survival outcomes, KM regression modeling and testing procedures have been derived under a proportional hazards (PH) assumption (Li and Luan, 2003; Cai, Tonini, and Lin, 2011). In this article, we derive testing and prediction methods for KM regression under the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, a useful alternative to the PH model. We approximate the null distribution of our test statistic using resampling procedures. When multiple kernels are of potential interest, it may be unclear in advance which kernel to use for testing and estimation. We propose a robust Omnibus Test that combines information across kernels, and an approach for selecting the best kernel for estimation. The methods are illustrated with an application in breast cancer. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Noninvasive and fast measurement of blood glucose in vivo by near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jintao, Xue; Liming, Ye; Yufei, Liu; Chunyan, Li; Han, Chen

2017-05-01

This research was to develop a method for noninvasive and fast blood glucose assay in vivo. Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, a more promising technique compared to other methods, was investigated in rats with diabetes and normal rats. Calibration models are generated by two different multivariate strategies: partial least squares (PLS) as linear regression method and artificial neural networks (ANN) as non-linear regression method. The PLS model was optimized individually by considering spectral range, spectral pretreatment methods and number of model factors, while the ANN model was studied individually by selecting spectral pretreatment methods, parameters of network topology, number of hidden neurons, and times of epoch. The results of the validation showed the two models were robust, accurate and repeatable. Compared to the ANN model, the performance of the PLS model was much better, with lower root mean square error of validation (RMSEP) of 0.419 and higher correlation coefficients (R) of 96.22%.

Mechanistic analysis of challenge-response experiments.

PubMed

Shotwell, M S; Drake, K J; Sidorov, V Y; Wikswo, J P

2013-09-01

We present an application of mechanistic modeling and nonlinear longitudinal regression in the context of biomedical response-to-challenge experiments, a field where these methods are underutilized. In this type of experiment, a system is studied by imposing an experimental challenge, and then observing its response. The combination of mechanistic modeling and nonlinear longitudinal regression has brought new insight, and revealed an unexpected opportunity for optimal design. Specifically, the mechanistic aspect of our approach enables the optimal design of experimental challenge characteristics (e.g., intensity, duration). This article lays some groundwork for this approach. We consider a series of experiments wherein an isolated rabbit heart is challenged with intermittent anoxia. The heart responds to the challenge onset, and recovers when the challenge ends. The mean response is modeled by a system of differential equations that describe a candidate mechanism for cardiac response to anoxia challenge. The cardiac system behaves more variably when challenged than when at rest. Hence, observations arising from this experiment exhibit complex heteroscedasticity and sharp changes in central tendency. We present evidence that an asymptotic statistical inference strategy may fail to adequately account for statistical uncertainty. Two alternative methods are critiqued qualitatively (i.e., for utility in the current context), and quantitatively using an innovative Monte-Carlo method. We conclude with a discussion of the exciting opportunities in optimal design of response-to-challenge experiments. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Genomic prediction based on data from three layer lines using non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Huang, Heyun; Windig, Jack J; Vereijken, Addie; Calus, Mario P L

2014-11-06

Most studies on genomic prediction with reference populations that include multiple lines or breeds have used linear models. Data heterogeneity due to using multiple populations may conflict with model assumptions used in linear regression methods. In an attempt to alleviate potential discrepancies between assumptions of linear models and multi-population data, two types of alternative models were used: (1) a multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) model that modelled trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits and (2) non-linear models based on kernel learning. These models were compared to conventional linear models for genomic prediction for two lines of brown layer hens (B1 and B2) and one line of white hens (W1). The three lines each had 1004 to 1023 training and 238 to 240 validation animals. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by estimating the correlation between observed phenotypes and predicted breeding values. When the training dataset included only data from the evaluated line, non-linear models yielded at best a similar accuracy as linear models. In some cases, when adding a distantly related line, the linear models showed a slight decrease in performance, while non-linear models generally showed no change in accuracy. When only information from a closely related line was used for training, linear models and non-linear radial basis function (RBF) kernel models performed similarly. The multi-trait GBLUP model took advantage of the estimated genetic correlations between the lines. Combining linear and non-linear models improved the accuracy of multi-line genomic prediction. Linear models and non-linear RBF models performed very similarly for genomic prediction, despite the expectation that non-linear models could deal better with the heterogeneous multi-population data. This heterogeneity of the data can be overcome by modelling trait by line combinations as separate but correlated traits, which avoids the occasional occurrence of large negative accuracies when the evaluated line was not included in the training dataset. Furthermore, when using a multi-line training dataset, non-linear models provided information on the genotype data that was complementary to the linear models, which indicates that the underlying data distributions of the three studied lines were indeed heterogeneous.

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

INNOVATIVE INSTRUMENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE GASIFICATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seong W. Lee

During this reporting period, the literature survey including the gasifier temperature measurement literature, the ultrasonic application and its background study in cleaning application, and spray coating process are completed. The gasifier simulator (cold model) testing has been successfully conducted. Four factors (blower voltage, ultrasonic application, injection time intervals, particle weight) were considered as significant factors that affect the temperature measurement. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was applied to analyze the test data. The analysis shows that all four factors are significant to the temperature measurements in the gasifier simulator (cold model). The regression analysis for the case with the normalizedmore » room temperature shows that linear model fits the temperature data with 82% accuracy (18% error). The regression analysis for the case without the normalized room temperature shows 72.5% accuracy (27.5% error). The nonlinear regression analysis indicates a better fit than that of the linear regression. The nonlinear regression model's accuracy is 88.7% (11.3% error) for normalized room temperature case, which is better than the linear regression analysis. The hot model thermocouple sleeve design and fabrication are completed. The gasifier simulator (hot model) design and the fabrication are completed. The system tests of the gasifier simulator (hot model) have been conducted and some modifications have been made. Based on the system tests and results analysis, the gasifier simulator (hot model) has met the proposed design requirement and the ready for system test. The ultrasonic cleaning method is under evaluation and will be further studied for the gasifier simulator (hot model) application. The progress of this project has been on schedule.« less

The Multiple Correspondence Analysis Method and Brain Functional Connectivity: Its Application to the Study of the Non-linear Relationships of Motor Cortex and Basal Ganglia.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Sabate, Clara; Morales, Ingrid; Sanchez, Alberto; Rodriguez, Manuel

2017-01-01

The complexity of basal ganglia (BG) interactions is often condensed into simple models mainly based on animal data and that present BG in closed-loop cortico-subcortical circuits of excitatory/inhibitory pathways which analyze the incoming cortical data and return the processed information to the cortex. This study was aimed at identifying functional relationships in the BG motor-loop of 24 healthy-subjects who provided written, informed consent and whose BOLD-activity was recorded by MRI methods. The analysis of the functional interaction between these centers by correlation techniques and multiple linear regression showed non-linear relationships which cannot be suitably addressed with these methods. The multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), an unsupervised multivariable procedure which can identify non-linear interactions, was used to study the functional connectivity of BG when subjects were at rest. Linear methods showed different functional interactions expected according to current BG models. MCA showed additional functional interactions which were not evident when using lineal methods. Seven functional configurations of BG were identified with MCA, two involving the primary motor and somatosensory cortex, one involving the deepest BG (external-internal globus pallidum, subthalamic nucleus and substantia nigral), one with the input-output BG centers (putamen and motor thalamus), two linking the input-output centers with other BG (external pallidum and subthalamic nucleus), and one linking the external pallidum and the substantia nigral. The results provide evidence that the non-linear MCA and linear methods are complementary and should be best used in conjunction to more fully understand the nature of functional connectivity of brain centers.

Fatigue design of a cellular phone folder using regression model-based multi-objective optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young Gyun; Lee, Jongsoo

2016-08-01

In a folding cellular phone, the folding device is repeatedly opened and closed by the user, which eventually results in fatigue damage, particularly to the front of the folder. Hence, it is important to improve the safety and endurance of the folder while also reducing its weight. This article presents an optimal design for the folder front that maximizes its fatigue endurance while minimizing its thickness. Design data for analysis and optimization were obtained experimentally using a test jig. Multi-objective optimization was carried out using a nonlinear regression model. Three regression methods were employed: back-propagation neural networks, logistic regression and support vector machines. The AdaBoost ensemble technique was also used to improve the approximation. Two-objective Pareto-optimal solutions were identified using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Finally, a numerically optimized solution was validated against experimental product data, in terms of both fatigue endurance and thickness index.

Estimating soil temperature using neighboring station data via multi-nonlinear regression and artificial neural network models.

PubMed

Bilgili, Mehmet; Sahin, Besir; Sangun, Levent

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to estimate the soil temperatures of a target station using only the soil temperatures of neighboring stations without any consideration of the other variables or parameters related to soil properties. For this aim, the soil temperatures were measured at depths of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 cm below the earth surface at eight measuring stations in Turkey. Firstly, the multiple nonlinear regression analysis was performed with the "Enter" method to determine the relationship between the values of target station and neighboring stations. Then, the stepwise regression analysis was applied to determine the best independent variables. Finally, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to estimate the soil temperature of a target station. According to the derived results for the training data set, the mean absolute percentage error and correlation coefficient ranged from 1.45% to 3.11% and from 0.9979 to 0.9986, respectively, while corresponding ranges of 1.685-3.65% and 0.9988-0.9991, respectively, were obtained based on the testing data set. The obtained results show that the developed ANN model provides a simple and accurate prediction to determine the soil temperature. In addition, the missing data at the target station could be determined within a high degree of accuracy.

Simulation of broadband ground motion including nonlinear soil effects for a magnitude 6.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartzell, S.; Leeds, A.; Frankel, A.; Williams, R.A.; Odum, J.; Stephenson, W.; Silva, W.

2002-01-01

The Seattle fault poses a significant seismic hazard to the city of Seattle, Washington. A hybrid, low-frequency, high-frequency method is used to calculate broadband (0-20 Hz) ground-motion time histories for a M 6.5 earthquake on the Seattle fault. Low frequencies (1 Hz) are calculated by a stochastic method that uses a fractal subevent size distribution to give an ω-2 displacement spectrum. Time histories are calculated for a grid of stations and then corrected for the local site response using a classification scheme based on the surficial geology. Average shear-wave velocity profiles are developed for six surficial geologic units: artificial fill, modified land, Esperance sand, Lawton clay, till, and Tertiary sandstone. These profiles together with other soil parameters are used to compare linear, equivalent-linear, and nonlinear predictions of ground motion in the frequency band 0-15 Hz. Linear site-response corrections are found to yield unreasonably large ground motions. Equivalent-linear and nonlinear calculations give peak values similar to the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake and those predicted by regression relationships. Ground-motion variance is estimated for (1) randomization of the velocity profiles, (2) variation in source parameters, and (3) choice of nonlinear model. Within the limits of the models tested, the results are found to be most sensitive to the nonlinear model and soil parameters, notably the over consolidation ratio.

Reliability analysis of structural ceramic components using a three-parameter Weibull distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Powers, Lynn M.; Starlinger, Alois

1992-01-01

Described here are nonlinear regression estimators for the three-Weibull distribution. Issues relating to the bias and invariance associated with these estimators are examined numerically using Monte Carlo simulation methods. The estimators were used to extract parameters from sintered silicon nitride failure data. A reliability analysis was performed on a turbopump blade utilizing the three-parameter Weibull distribution and the estimates from the sintered silicon nitride data.

[Study of blending method for the extracts of herbal plants].

PubMed

Liu, Yongsuo; Cao, Min; Chen, Yuying; Hu, Yuzhu; Wang, Yiming; Luo, Guoan

2006-03-01

The irregularity in herbal plant composition is influenced by multiple factors. As for quality control of traditional Chinese medicine, the most critical challenge is to ensure the dosage content uniformity. This content uniformity can be improved by blending different batches of the extracts of herbal plants. Nonlinear least-squares regression was used to calculate the blending coefficient, which means no great absolute differences allowed for all ingredients. For traditional Chinese medicines, even relatively smaller differences could present to be very important for all the ingredients. The auto-scaling pretreatment was used prior to the calculation of the blending coefficients. The pretreatment buffered the characteristics of individual data for the ingredients in different batches, so an improved auto-scaling pretreatment method was proposed. With the improved auto-scaling pretreatment, the relative. differences decreased after blending different batches of extracts of herbal plants according to the reference samples. And the content uniformity control of the specific ingredients could be achieved by the error control coefficient. In the studies for the extracts of fructus gardeniae, the relative differences of all the ingredients is less than 3% after blending different batches of the extracts. The results showed that nonlinear least-squares regression can be used to calculate the blending coefficient of the herbal plant extracts.

Prediction of hourly PM2.5 using a space-time support vector regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Wentao; Deng, Min; Xu, Feng; Wang, Hang

2018-05-01

Real-time air quality prediction has been an active field of research in atmospheric environmental science. The existing methods of machine learning are widely used to predict pollutant concentrations because of their enhanced ability to handle complex non-linear relationships. However, because pollutant concentration data, as typical geospatial data, also exhibit spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence, they may violate the assumptions of independent and identically distributed random variables in most of the machine learning methods. As a result, a space-time support vector regression model is proposed to predict hourly PM2.5 concentrations. First, to address spatial heterogeneity, spatial clustering is executed to divide the study area into several homogeneous or quasi-homogeneous subareas. To handle spatial dependence, a Gauss vector weight function is then developed to determine spatial autocorrelation variables as part of the input features. Finally, a local support vector regression model with spatial autocorrelation variables is established for each subarea. Experimental data on PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing are used to verify whether the results of the proposed model are superior to those of other methods.

Gaussian Process Regression for Uncertainty Estimation on Ecosystem Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menzer, O.; Moffat, A.; Lasslop, G.; Reichstein, M.

2011-12-01

The flow of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is mainly driven by nonlinear, complex and time-lagged processes. Understanding the associated ecosystem responses and climatic feedbacks is a key challenge regarding climate change questions such as increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Usually, the underlying relationships are implemented in models as prescribed functions which interlink numerous meteorological, radiative and gas exchange variables. In contrast, supervised Machine Learning algorithms, such as Artificial Neural Networks or Gaussian Processes, allow for an insight into the relationships directly from a data perspective. Micrometeorological, high resolution measurements at flux towers of the FLUXNET observational network are an essential tool for obtaining quantifications of the ecosystem variables, as they continuously record e.g. CO2 exchange, solar radiation and air temperature. In order to facilitate the investigation of the interactions and feedbacks between these variables, several challenging data properties need to be taken into account: noisy, multidimensional and incomplete (Moffat, Accepted). The task of estimating uncertainties in such micrometeorological measurements can be addressed by Gaussian Processes (GPs), a modern nonparametric method for nonlinear regression. The GP approach has recently been shown to be a powerful modeling tool, regardless of the input dimensionality, the degree of nonlinearity and the noise level (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Heteroscedastic Gaussian Processes (HGPs) are a specialized GP method for data with a varying, inhomogeneous noise variance (Goldberg et al., 1998; Kersting et al., 2007), as usually observed in CO2 flux measurements (Richardson et al., 2006). Here, we showed by an evaluation of the HGP performance in several artificial experiments and a comparison to existing nonlinear regression methods, that their outstanding ability is to capture measurement noise levels, concurrently providing reasonable data fits under relatively few assumptions. On the basis of incomplete, half-hourly measured ecosystem data, a HGP was trained to model NEP (Net Ecosystem Production), only with the drivers PPFD (Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density) and Air Temperature. Time information was added to account for the autocorrelation in the flux measurements. Provided with a gap-filled, meteorological time series, NEP and the corresponding random error estimates can then be predicted empirically at high temporal resolution. We report uncertainties in annual sums of CO2 exchange at two flux tower sites in Hainich, Germany and Hesse, France. Similar noise patterns, but different magnitudes between sites were detected, with annual random error estimates of +/- 14.1 gCm^-2yr^-1 and +/- 23.5 gCm^-2yr^-1, respectively, for the year 2001. Existing models calculate uncertainties by evaluating the standard deviation of the model residuals. A comparison to the methods of Reichstein et al. (2005) and Lasslop et al. (2008) showed confidence both in the predictive uncertainties and the annual sums modeled with the HGP approach.

Control-based continuation: Bifurcation and stability analysis for physical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barton, David A. W.

2017-02-01

Control-based continuation is technique for tracking the solutions and bifurcations of nonlinear experiments. The idea is to apply the method of numerical continuation to a feedback-controlled physical experiment such that the control becomes non-invasive. Since in an experiment it is not (generally) possible to set the state of the system directly, the control target becomes a proxy for the state. Control-based continuation enables the systematic investigation of the bifurcation structure of a physical system, much like if it was numerical model. However, stability information (and hence bifurcation detection and classification) is not readily available due to the presence of stabilising feedback control. This paper uses a periodic auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) to approximate the time-varying linearisation of the experiment around a particular periodic orbit, thus providing the missing stability information. This method is demonstrated using a physical nonlinear tuned mass damper.

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Factor complexity of crash occurrence: An empirical demonstration using boosted regression trees.

PubMed

Chung, Yi-Shih

2013-12-01

Factor complexity is a characteristic of traffic crashes. This paper proposes a novel method, namely boosted regression trees (BRT), to investigate the complex and nonlinear relationships in high-variance traffic crash data. The Taiwanese 2004-2005 single-vehicle motorcycle crash data are used to demonstrate the utility of BRT. Traditional logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) models are also used to compare their estimation results and external validities. Both the in-sample cross-validation and out-of-sample validation results show that an increase in tree complexity provides improved, although declining, classification performance, indicating a limited factor complexity of single-vehicle motorcycle crashes. The effects of crucial variables including geographical, time, and sociodemographic factors explain some fatal crashes. Relatively unique fatal crashes are better approximated by interactive terms, especially combinations of behavioral factors. BRT models generally provide improved transferability than conventional logistic regression and CART models. This study also discusses the implications of the results for devising safety policies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel model incorporating two variability sources for describing motor evoked potentials

PubMed Central

Goetz, Stefan M.; Luber, Bruce; Lisanby, Sarah H.; Peterchev, Angel V.

2014-01-01

Objective Motor evoked potentials (MEPs) play a pivotal role in transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), e.g., for determining the motor threshold and probing cortical excitability. Sampled across the range of stimulation strengths, MEPs outline an input–output (IO) curve, which is often used to characterize the corticospinal tract. More detailed understanding of the signal generation and variability of MEPs would provide insight into the underlying physiology and aid correct statistical treatment of MEP data. Methods A novel regression model is tested using measured IO data of twelve subjects. The model splits MEP variability into two independent contributions, acting on both sides of a strong sigmoidal nonlinearity that represents neural recruitment. Traditional sigmoidal regression with a single variability source after the nonlinearity is used for comparison. Results The distribution of MEP amplitudes varied across different stimulation strengths, violating statistical assumptions in traditional regression models. In contrast to the conventional regression model, the dual variability source model better described the IO characteristics including phenomena such as changing distribution spread and skewness along the IO curve. Conclusions MEP variability is best described by two sources that most likely separate variability in the initial excitation process from effects occurring later on. The new model enables more accurate and sensitive estimation of the IO curve characteristics, enhancing its power as a detection tool, and may apply to other brain stimulation modalities. Furthermore, it extracts new information from the IO data concerning the neural variability—information that has previously been treated as noise. PMID:24794287

Gap-filling methods to impute eddy covariance flux data by preserving variance.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunwor, S.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Loescher, H. W.

2015-12-01

To represent carbon dynamics, in terms of exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, eddy covariance (EC) data has been collected using eddy flux towers from various sites across globe for more than two decades. However, measurements from EC data are missing for various reasons: precipitation, routine maintenance, or lack of vertical turbulence. In order to have estimates of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) with high precision and accuracy, robust gap-filling methods to impute missing data are required. While the methods used so far have provided robust estimates of the mean value of NEE, little attention has been paid to preserving the variance structures embodied by the flux data. Preserving the variance of these data will provide unbiased and precise estimates of NEE over time, which mimic natural fluctuations. We used a non-linear regression approach with moving windows of different lengths (15, 30, and 60-days) to estimate non-linear regression parameters for one year of flux data from a long-leaf pine site at the Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center. We used as our base the Michaelis-Menten and Van't Hoff functions. We assessed the potential physiological drivers of these parameters with linear models using micrometeorological predictors. We then used a parameter prediction approach to refine the non-linear gap-filling equations based on micrometeorological conditions. This provides us an opportunity to incorporate additional variables, such as vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and volumetric water content (VWC) into the equations. Our preliminary results indicate that improvements in gap-filling can be gained with a 30-day moving window with additional micrometeorological predictors (as indicated by lower root mean square error (RMSE) of the predicted values of NEE). Our next steps are to use these parameter predictions from moving windows to gap-fill the data with and without incorporation of potential driver variables of the parameters traditionally used. Then, comparisons of the predicted values from these methods and 'traditional' gap-filling methods (using 12 fixed monthly windows) will be assessed to show the scale of preserving variance. Further, this method will be applied to impute artificially created gaps for analyzing if variance is preserved.

Weibull Modulus Estimated by the Non-linear Least Squares Method: A Solution to Deviation Occurring in Traditional Weibull Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Griffiths, W. D.; Chen, J.

2017-11-01

The Maximum Likelihood method and the Linear Least Squares (LLS) method have been widely used to estimate Weibull parameters for reliability of brittle and metal materials. In the last 30 years, many researchers focused on the bias of Weibull modulus estimation, and some improvements have been achieved, especially in the case of the LLS method. However, there is a shortcoming in these methods for a specific type of data, where the lower tail deviates dramatically from the well-known linear fit in a classic LLS Weibull analysis. This deviation can be commonly found from the measured properties of materials, and previous applications of the LLS method on this kind of dataset present an unreliable linear regression. This deviation was previously thought to be due to physical flaws ( i.e., defects) contained in materials. However, this paper demonstrates that this deviation can also be caused by the linear transformation of the Weibull function, occurring in the traditional LLS method. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to carry out a Weibull analysis according to the linearized Weibull function, and the Non-linear Least Squares method (Non-LS) is instead recommended for the Weibull modulus estimation of casting properties.

A phenomenological biological dose model for proton therapy based on linear energy transfer spectra.

PubMed

Rørvik, Eivind; Thörnqvist, Sara; Stokkevåg, Camilla H; Dahle, Tordis J; Fjaera, Lars Fredrik; Ytre-Hauge, Kristian S

2017-06-01

The relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of protons varies with the radiation quality, quantified by the linear energy transfer (LET). Most phenomenological models employ a linear dependency of the dose-averaged LET (LET d ) to calculate the biological dose. However, several experiments have indicated a possible non-linear trend. Our aim was to investigate if biological dose models including non-linear LET dependencies should be considered, by introducing a LET spectrum based dose model. The RBE-LET relationship was investigated by fitting of polynomials from 1st to 5th degree to a database of 85 data points from aerobic in vitro experiments. We included both unweighted and weighted regression, the latter taking into account experimental uncertainties. Statistical testing was performed to decide whether higher degree polynomials provided better fits to the data as compared to lower degrees. The newly developed models were compared to three published LET d based models for a simulated spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) scenario. The statistical analysis of the weighted regression analysis favored a non-linear RBE-LET relationship, with the quartic polynomial found to best represent the experimental data (P = 0.010). The results of the unweighted regression analysis were on the borderline of statistical significance for non-linear functions (P = 0.053), and with the current database a linear dependency could not be rejected. For the SOBP scenario, the weighted non-linear model estimated a similar mean RBE value (1.14) compared to the three established models (1.13-1.17). The unweighted model calculated a considerably higher RBE value (1.22). The analysis indicated that non-linear models could give a better representation of the RBE-LET relationship. However, this is not decisive, as inclusion of the experimental uncertainties in the regression analysis had a significant impact on the determination and ranking of the models. As differences between the models were observed for the SOBP scenario, both non-linear LET spectrum- and linear LET d based models should be further evaluated in clinically realistic scenarios. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

A gap-filling model for eddy covariance latent heat flux: Estimating evapotranspiration of a subtropical seasonal evergreen broad-leaved forest as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Ying; Chu, Chia-Ren; Li, Ming-Hsu

2012-10-01

SummaryIn this paper we present a semi-parametric multivariate gap-filling model for tower-based measurement of latent heat flux (LE). Two statistical techniques, the principal component analysis (PCA) and a nonlinear interpolation approach were integrated into this LE gap-filling model. The PCA was first used to resolve the multicollinearity relationships among various environmental variables, including radiation, soil moisture deficit, leaf area index, wind speed, etc. Two nonlinear interpolation methods, multiple regressions (MRS) and the K-nearest neighbors (KNNs) were examined with random selected flux gaps for both clear sky and nighttime/cloudy data to incorporate into this LE gap-filling model. Experimental results indicated that the KNN interpolation approach is able to provide consistent LE estimations while MRS presents over estimations during nighttime/cloudy. Rather than using empirical regression parameters, the KNN approach resolves the nonlinear relationship between the gap-filled LE flux and principal components with adaptive K values under different atmospheric states. The developed LE gap-filling model (PCA with KNN) works with a RMSE of 2.4 W m-2 (˜0.09 mm day-1) at a weekly time scale by adding 40% artificial flux gaps into original dataset. Annual evapotranspiration at this study site were estimated at 736 mm (1803 MJ) and 728 mm (1785 MJ) for year 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Non-Linear Approach in Kinesiology Should Be Preferred to the Linear--A Case of Basketball.

PubMed

Trninić, Marko; Jeličić, Mario; Papić, Vladan

2015-07-01

In kinesiology, medicine, biology and psychology, in which research focus is on dynamical self-organized systems, complex connections exist between variables. Non-linear nature of complex systems has been discussed and explained by the example of non-linear anthropometric predictors of performance in basketball. Previous studies interpreted relations between anthropometric features and measures of effectiveness in basketball by (a) using linear correlation models, and by (b) including all basketball athletes in the same sample of participants regardless of their playing position. In this paper the significance and character of linear and non-linear relations between simple anthropometric predictors (AP) and performance criteria consisting of situation-related measures of effectiveness (SE) in basketball were determined and evaluated. The sample of participants consisted of top-level junior basketball players divided in three groups according to their playing time (8 minutes and more per game) and playing position: guards (N = 42), forwards (N = 26) and centers (N = 40). Linear (general model) and non-linear (general model) regression models were calculated simultaneously and separately for each group. The conclusion is viable: non-linear regressions are frequently superior to linear correlations when interpreting actual association logic among research variables.

Data-driven discovery of partial differential equations

PubMed Central

Rudy, Samuel H.; Brunton, Steven L.; Proctor, Joshua L.; Kutz, J. Nathan

2017-01-01

We propose a sparse regression method capable of discovering the governing partial differential equation(s) of a given system by time series measurements in the spatial domain. The regression framework relies on sparsity-promoting techniques to select the nonlinear and partial derivative terms of the governing equations that most accurately represent the data, bypassing a combinatorially large search through all possible candidate models. The method balances model complexity and regression accuracy by selecting a parsimonious model via Pareto analysis. Time series measurements can be made in an Eulerian framework, where the sensors are fixed spatially, or in a Lagrangian framework, where the sensors move with the dynamics. The method is computationally efficient, robust, and demonstrated to work on a variety of canonical problems spanning a number of scientific domains including Navier-Stokes, the quantum harmonic oscillator, and the diffusion equation. Moreover, the method is capable of disambiguating between potentially nonunique dynamical terms by using multiple time series taken with different initial data. Thus, for a traveling wave, the method can distinguish between a linear wave equation and the Korteweg–de Vries equation, for instance. The method provides a promising new technique for discovering governing equations and physical laws in parameterized spatiotemporal systems, where first-principles derivations are intractable. PMID:28508044

A Modified Double Multiple Nonlinear Regression Constitutive Equation for Modeling and Prediction of High Temperature Flow Behavior of BFe10-1-2 Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jun; Wang, Kuaishe; Shi, Jiamin; Wang, Wen; Liu, Yingying

2018-01-01

Constitutive analysis for hot working of BFe10-1-2 alloy was carried out by using experimental stress-strain data from isothermal hot compression tests, in a wide range of temperature of 1,023 1,273 K, and strain rate range of 0.001 10 s-1. A constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression was proposed considering the independent effects of strain, strain rate, temperature and their interrelation. The predicted flow stress data calculated from the developed equation was compared with the experimental data. Correlation coefficient (R), average absolute relative error (AARE) and relative errors were introduced to verify the validity of the developed constitutive equation. Subsequently, a comparative study was made on the capability of strain-compensated Arrhenius-type constitutive model. The results showed that the developed constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression could predict flow stress of BFe10-1-2 alloy with good correlation and generalization.

Evaluation of a Decision Support System for Obstructive Sleep Apnea with Nonlinear Analysis of Respiratory Signals.

PubMed

Kaimakamis, Evangelos; Tsara, Venetia; Bratsas, Charalambos; Sichletidis, Lazaros; Karvounis, Charalambos; Maglaveras, Nikolaos

2016-01-01

Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a common sleep disorder requiring the time/money consuming polysomnography for diagnosis. Alternative methods for initial evaluation are sought. Our aim was the prediction of Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI) in patients potentially suffering from OSA based on nonlinear analysis of respiratory biosignals during sleep, a method that is related to the pathophysiology of the disorder. Patients referred to a Sleep Unit (135) underwent full polysomnography. Three nonlinear indices (Largest Lyapunov Exponent, Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and Approximate Entropy) extracted from two biosignals (airflow from a nasal cannula, thoracic movement) and one linear derived from Oxygen saturation provided input to a data mining application with contemporary classification algorithms for the creation of predictive models for AHI. A linear regression model presented a correlation coefficient of 0.77 in predicting AHI. With a cutoff value of AHI = 8, the sensitivity and specificity were 93% and 71.4% in discrimination between patients and normal subjects. The decision tree for the discrimination between patients and normal had sensitivity and specificity of 91% and 60%, respectively. Certain obtained nonlinear values correlated significantly with commonly accepted physiological parameters of people suffering from OSA. We developed a predictive model for the presence/severity of OSA using a simple linear equation and additional decision trees with nonlinear features extracted from 3 respiratory recordings. The accuracy of the methodology is high and the findings provide insight to the underlying pathophysiology of the syndrome. Reliable predictions of OSA are possible using linear and nonlinear indices from only 3 respiratory signals during sleep. The proposed models could lead to a better study of the pathophysiology of OSA and facilitate initial evaluation/follow up of suspected patients OSA utilizing a practical low cost methodology. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01161381.

Neural Network and Regression Approximations in High Speed Civil Transport Aircraft Design Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patniak, Surya N.; Guptill, James D.; Hopkins, Dale A.; Lavelle, Thomas M.

1998-01-01

Nonlinear mathematical-programming-based design optimization can be an elegant method. However, the calculations required to generate the merit function, constraints, and their gradients, which are frequently required, can make the process computational intensive. The computational burden can be greatly reduced by using approximating analyzers derived from an original analyzer utilizing neural networks and linear regression methods. The experience gained from using both of these approximation methods in the design optimization of a high speed civil transport aircraft is the subject of this paper. The Langley Research Center's Flight Optimization System was selected for the aircraft analysis. This software was exercised to generate a set of training data with which a neural network and a regression method were trained, thereby producing the two approximating analyzers. The derived analyzers were coupled to the Lewis Research Center's CometBoards test bed to provide the optimization capability. With the combined software, both approximation methods were examined for use in aircraft design optimization, and both performed satisfactorily. The CPU time for solution of the problem, which had been measured in hours, was reduced to minutes with the neural network approximation and to seconds with the regression method. Instability encountered in the aircraft analysis software at certain design points was also eliminated. On the other hand, there were costs and difficulties associated with training the approximating analyzers. The CPU time required to generate the input-output pairs and to train the approximating analyzers was seven times that required for solution of the problem.

Histological Grading of Hepatocellular Carcinomas with Intravoxel Incoherent Motion Diffusion-weighted Imaging: Inconsistent Results Depending on the Fitting Method.

PubMed

Ichikawa, Shintaro; Motosugi, Utaroh; Hernando, Diego; Morisaka, Hiroyuki; Enomoto, Nobuyuki; Matsuda, Masanori; Onishi, Hiroshi

2018-04-10

To compare the abilities of three intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) imaging approximation methods to discriminate the histological grade of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). Fifty-eight patients (60 HCCs) underwent IVIM imaging with 11 b-values (0-1000 s/mm 2 ). Slow (D) and fast diffusion coefficients (D * ) and the perfusion fraction (f) were calculated for the HCCs using the mean signal intensities in regions of interest drawn by two radiologists. Three approximation methods were used. First, all three parameters were obtained simultaneously using non-linear fitting (method A). Second, D was obtained using linear fitting (b = 500 and 1000), followed by non-linear fitting for D * and f (method B). Third, D was obtained by linear fitting, f was obtained using the regression line intersection and signals at b = 0, and non-linear fitting was used for D * (method C). A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to reveal the abilities of these methods to distinguish poorly-differentiated from well-to-moderately-differentiated HCCs. Inter-reader agreements were assessed using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). The measurements of D, D * , and f in methods B and C (Az-value, 0.658-0.881) had better discrimination abilities than did those in method A (Az-value, 0.527-0.607). The ICCs of D and f were good to excellent (0.639-0.835) with all methods. The ICCs of D * were moderate with methods B (0.580) and C (0.463) and good with method A (0.705). The IVIM parameters may vary depending on the fitting methods, and therefore, further technical refinement may be needed.

The application of neural network model to the simulation nitrous oxide emission in the hydro-fluctuation belt of Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Lanlan

2017-04-01

Nitrous oxide is much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. However, the estimation of N2O flux is usually clouded with uncertainty, mainly due to high spatial and temporal variations. This hampers the development of general mechanistic models for N2O emission as well, as most previously developed models were empirical or exhibited low predictability with numerous assumptions. In this study, we tested General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) as an alternative to classic empirical models for simulating N2O emission in riparian zones of Reservoirs. GRNN and nonlinear regression (NLR) were applied to estimate the N2O flux of 1-year observations in riparian zones of Three Gorge Reservoir. NLR resulted in lower prediction power and higher residuals compared to GRNN. Although nonlinear regression model estimated similar average values of N2O, it could not capture the fluctuation patterns accurately. In contrast, GRNN model achieved a fairly high predictability, with an R2 of 0.59 for model validation, 0.77 for model calibration (training), and a low root mean square error (RMSE), indicating a high capacity to simulate the dynamics of N2O flux. According to a sensitivity analysis of the GRNN, nonlinear relationships between input variables and N2O flux were well explained. Our results suggest that the GRNN developed in this study has a greater performance in simulating variations in N2O flux than nonlinear regressions.

Multi-disease analysis of maternal antibody decay using non-linear mixed models accounting for censoring.

PubMed

Goeyvaerts, Nele; Leuridan, Elke; Faes, Christel; Van Damme, Pierre; Hens, Niel

2015-09-10

Biomedical studies often generate repeated measures of multiple outcomes on a set of subjects. It may be of interest to develop a biologically intuitive model for the joint evolution of these outcomes while assessing inter-subject heterogeneity. Even though it is common for biological processes to entail non-linear relationships, examples of multivariate non-linear mixed models (MNMMs) are still fairly rare. We contribute to this area by jointly analyzing the maternal antibody decay for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, allowing for a different non-linear decay model for each infectious disease. We present a general modeling framework to analyze multivariate non-linear longitudinal profiles subject to censoring, by combining multivariate random effects, non-linear growth and Tobit regression. We explore the hypothesis of a common infant-specific mechanism underlying maternal immunity using a pairwise correlated random-effects approach and evaluating different correlation matrix structures. The implied marginal correlation between maternal antibody levels is estimated using simulations. The mean duration of passive immunity was less than 4 months for all diseases with substantial heterogeneity between infants. The maternal antibody levels against rubella and varicella were found to be positively correlated, while little to no correlation could be inferred for the other disease pairs. For some pairs, computational issues occurred with increasing correlation matrix complexity, which underlines the importance of further developing estimation methods for MNMMs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China.

PubMed

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin; Wang, Zheng-Xin

2018-03-08

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China's pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N )) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss-Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N ) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N ) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996-2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N ) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO₂ emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N ) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO₂ and dust reduce accordingly.

Functional interaction-based nonlinear models with application to multiplatform genomics data.

PubMed

Davenport, Clemontina A; Maity, Arnab; Baladandayuthapani, Veerabhadran

2018-05-07

Functional regression allows for a scalar response to be dependent on a functional predictor; however, not much work has been done when a scalar exposure that interacts with the functional covariate is introduced. In this paper, we present 2 functional regression models that account for this interaction and propose 2 novel estimation procedures for the parameters in these models. These estimation methods allow for a noisy and/or sparsely observed functional covariate and are easily extended to generalized exponential family responses. We compute standard errors of our estimators, which allows for further statistical inference and hypothesis testing. We compare the performance of the proposed estimators to each other and to one found in the literature via simulation and demonstrate our methods using a real data example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Study relationship between inorganic and organic coal analysis with gross calorific value by multiple regression and ANFIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgani, S.C.; Hart, B.; Grady, W.C.; Hower, J.C.

2011-01-01

The relationship between maceral content plus mineral matter and gross calorific value (GCV) for a wide range of West Virginia coal samples (from 6518 to 15330 BTU/lb; 15.16 to 35.66MJ/kg) has been investigated by multivariable regression and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The stepwise least square mathematical method comparison between liptinite, vitrinite, plus mineral matter as input data sets with measured GCV reported a nonlinear correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.83. Using the same data set the correlation between the predicted GCV from the ANFIS model and the actual GCV reported a R2 value of 0.96. It was determined that the GCV-based prediction methods, as used in this article, can provide a reasonable estimation of GCV. Copyright ?? Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Optical scatterometry of quarter-micron patterns using neural regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischoff, Joerg; Bauer, Joachim J.; Haak, Ulrich; Hutschenreuther, Lutz; Truckenbrodt, Horst

1998-06-01

With shrinking dimensions and increasing chip areas, a rapid and non-destructive full wafer characterization after every patterning cycle is an inevitable necessity. In former publications it was shown that Optical Scatterometry (OS) has the potential to push the attainable feature limits of optical techniques from 0.8 . . . 0.5 microns for imaging methods down to 0.1 micron and below. Thus the demands of future metrology can be met. Basically being a nonimaging method, OS combines light scatter (or diffraction) measurements with modern data analysis schemes to solve the inverse scatter issue. For very fine patterns with lambda-to-pitch ratios grater than one, the specular reflected light versus the incidence angle is recorded. Usually, the data analysis comprises two steps -- a training cycle connected the a rigorous forward modeling and the prediction itself. Until now, two data analysis schemes are usually applied -- the multivariate regression based Partial Least Squares method (PLS) and a look-up-table technique which is also referred to as Minimum Mean Square Error approach (MMSE). Both methods are afflicted with serious drawbacks. On the one hand, the prediction accuracy of multivariate regression schemes degrades with larger parameter ranges due to the linearization properties of the method. On the other hand, look-up-table methods are rather time consuming during prediction thus prolonging the processing time and reducing the throughput. An alternate method is an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based regression which combines the advantages of multivariate regression and MMSE. Due to the versatility of a neural network, not only can its structure be adapted more properly to the scatter problem, but also the nonlinearity of the neuronal transfer functions mimic the nonlinear behavior of optical diffraction processes more adequately. In spite of these pleasant properties, the prediction speed of ANN regression is comparable with that of the PLS-method. In this paper, the viability and performance of ANN-regression will be demonstrated with the example of sub-quarter-micron resist metrology. To this end, 0.25 micrometer line/space patterns have been printed in positive photoresist by means of DUV projection lithography. In order to evaluate the total metrology chain from light scatter measurement through data analysis, a thorough modeling has been performed. Assuming a trapezoidal shape of the developed resist profile, a training data set was generated by means of the Rigorous Coupled Wave Approach (RCWA). After training the model, a second data set was computed and deteriorated by Gaussian noise to imitate real measuring conditions. Then, these data have been fed into the models established before resulting in a Standard Error of Prediction (SEP) which corresponds to the measuring accuracy. Even with putting only little effort in the design of a back-propagation network, the ANN is clearly superior to the PLS-method. Depending on whether a network with one or two hidden layers was used, accuracy gains between 2 and 5 can be achieved compared with PLS regression. Furthermore, the ANN is less noise sensitive, for there is only a doubling of the SEP at 5% noise for ANN whereas for PLS the accuracy degrades rapidly with increasing noise. The accuracy gain also depends on the light polarization and on the measured parameters. Finally, these results have been proven experimentally, where the OS-results are in good accordance with the profiles obtained from cross- sectioning micrographs.

Radar modulation classification using time-frequency representation and nonlinear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luigi, Christophe; Arques, Pierre-Yves; Lopez, Jean-Marc; Moreau, Eric

1999-09-01

In naval electronic environment, pulses emitted by radars are collected by ESM receivers. For most of them the intrapulse signal is modulated by a particular law. To help the classical identification process, a classification and estimation of this modulation law is applied on the intrapulse signal measurements. To estimate with a good accuracy the time-varying frequency of a signal corrupted by an additive noise, one method has been chosen. This method consists on the Wigner distribution calculation, the instantaneous frequency is then estimated by the peak location of the distribution. Bias and variance of the estimator are performed by computed simulations. In a estimated sequence of frequencies, we assume the presence of false and good estimated ones, the hypothesis of Gaussian distribution is made on the errors. A robust non linear regression method, based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is thus applied on these estimated frequencies using a Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The performances of the method are tested by using varied modulation laws and different signal to noise ratios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Z. W., E-mail: zhuzhiwen@tju.edu.cn; Li, X. M., E-mail: lixinmiaotju@163.com; Xu, J., E-mail: xujia-ld@163.com

A kind of magnetic shape memory alloy (MSMA) microgripper is proposed in this paper, and its nonlinear dynamic characteristics are studied when the stochastic perturbation is considered. Nonlinear differential items are introduced to explain the hysteretic phenomena of MSMA, and the constructive relationships among strain, stress, and magnetic field intensity are obtained by the partial least-square regression method. The nonlinear dynamic model of a MSMA microgripper subjected to in-plane stochastic excitation is developed. The stationary probability density function of the system’s response is obtained, the transition sets of the system are determined, and the conditions of stochastic bifurcation are obtained.more » The homoclinic and heteroclinic orbits of the system are given, and the boundary of the system’s safe basin is obtained by stochastic Melnikov integral method. The numerical and experimental results show that the system’s motion depends on its parameters, and stochastic Hopf bifurcation appears in the variation of the parameters; the area of the safe basin decreases with the increase of the stochastic excitation, and the boundary of the safe basin becomes fractal. The results of this paper are helpful for the application of MSMA microgripper in engineering fields.« less

Identification of cow milk in goat milk by nonlinear chemical fingerprint technique.

PubMed

Ma, Yong-Jie; Dong, Wen-Bin; Fan, Cheng; Wang, Er-Dan

2017-10-01

The objective of this paper was to develop a nonlinear chemical fingerprint technique for identifying and detecting adulteration of goat milk with cow milk. In this study, by taking the Belousov-Zhabotinsky oscillatory chemical reaction using acetone and substrates in goat milk or cow milk as main dissipative substances, when the same dosage of goat milk and cow milk was introduced to the "H +  + Mn 2+  + BrO 3 -  + acetone" oscillating system respectively, nonlinear chemical fingerprints were obtained for goat milk and cow milk from the same origin. The results showed that inductive time value and the content of cow milk in goat milk had a linear relationship in the range of 0-100% and the corresponding regression coefficient was 0.9991. A detection limit of 0.0107 g/g was obtained, and the content of cow milk in mixed milk was calculated. The proposed method in this study was simple, economical and effective. In addition, the method did not need the pretreatment and separation of samples for identifying and evaluating cow milk adulteration in goat milk. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Correlation between gaseous exchange rate, body temperature, and mitochondrial protein content in the liver of mice].

PubMed

Muradian, Kh K; Utko, N O; Mozzhukhina, T H; Pishel', I M; Litoshenko, O Ia; Bezrukov, V V; Fraĭfel'd, V E

2002-01-01

Correlative and regressive relations between the gaseous exchange, thermoregulation and mitochondrial protein content were analyzed by two- and three-dimensional statistics in mice. It has been shown that the pair wise linear methods of analysis did not reveal any significant correlation between the parameters under exploration. However, it became evident at three-dimensional and non-linear plotting for which the coefficients of multivariable correlation reached and even exceeded 0.7-0.8. The calculations based on partial differentiation of the multivariable regression equations allow to conclude that at certain values of VO2, VCO2 and body temperature negative relations between the systems of gaseous exchange and thermoregulation become dominating.

Analysis and prediction of flow from local source in a river basin using a Neuro-fuzzy modeling tool.

PubMed

Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi

2007-10-01

Traditionally, the multiple linear regression technique has been one of the most widely used models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, neuro-fuzzy systems have gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships. This study evaluated the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system as an alternative to the traditional statistical regression technique for the purpose of predicting flow from a local source in a river basin. The effectiveness of the proposed identification technique was demonstrated through a simulation study of the river flow time series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Furthermore, in order to provide the uncertainty associated with the estimation of river flow, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. As a comparison, a multiple linear regression analysis that was being used by the Citarum River Authority was also examined using various statistical indices. The simulation results using 95% confidence intervals indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model consistently underestimated the magnitude of high flow while the low and medium flow magnitudes were estimated closer to the observed data. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of the neuro-fuzzy and linear regression methods indicated that the neuro-fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting river flow dynamics. The neuro-fuzzy model was able to improve the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the multiple linear regression forecasts by about 13.52% and 10.73%, respectively. Considering its simplicity and efficiency, the neuro-fuzzy model is recommended as an alternative tool for modeling of flow dynamics in the study area.

Strengthen forensic entomology in court--the need for data exploration and the validation of a generalised additive mixed model.

PubMed

Baqué, Michèle; Amendt, Jens

2013-01-01

Developmental data of juvenile blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are typically used to calculate the age of immature stages found on or around a corpse and thus to estimate a minimum post-mortem interval (PMI(min)). However, many of those data sets don't take into account that immature blow flies grow in a non-linear fashion. Linear models do not supply a sufficient reliability on age estimates and may even lead to an erroneous determination of the PMI(min). According to the Daubert standard and the need for improvements in forensic science, new statistic tools like smoothing methods and mixed models allow the modelling of non-linear relationships and expand the field of statistical analyses. The present study introduces into the background and application of these statistical techniques by analysing a model which describes the development of the forensically important blow fly Calliphora vicina at different temperatures. The comparison of three statistical methods (linear regression, generalised additive modelling and generalised additive mixed modelling) clearly demonstrates that only the latter provided regression parameters that reflect the data adequately. We focus explicitly on both the exploration of the data--to assure their quality and to show the importance of checking it carefully prior to conducting the statistical tests--and the validation of the resulting models. Hence, we present a common method for evaluating and testing forensic entomological data sets by using for the first time generalised additive mixed models.

Variable importance in nonlinear kernels (VINK): classification of digitized histopathology.

PubMed

Ginsburg, Shoshana; Ali, Sahirzeeshan; Lee, George; Basavanhally, Ajay; Madabhushi, Anant

2013-01-01

Quantitative histomorphometry is the process of modeling appearance of disease morphology on digitized histopathology images via image-based features (e.g., texture, graphs). Due to the curse of dimensionality, building classifiers with large numbers of features requires feature selection (which may require a large training set) or dimensionality reduction (DR). DR methods map the original high-dimensional features in terms of eigenvectors and eigenvalues, which limits the potential for feature transparency or interpretability. Although methods exist for variable selection and ranking on embeddings obtained via linear DR schemes (e.g., principal components analysis (PCA)), similar methods do not yet exist for nonlinear DR (NLDR) methods. In this work we present a simple yet elegant method for approximating the mapping between the data in the original feature space and the transformed data in the kernel PCA (KPCA) embedding space; this mapping provides the basis for quantification of variable importance in nonlinear kernels (VINK). We show how VINK can be implemented in conjunction with the popular Isomap and Laplacian eigenmap algorithms. VINK is evaluated in the contexts of three different problems in digital pathology: (1) predicting five year PSA failure following radical prostatectomy, (2) predicting Oncotype DX recurrence risk scores for ER+ breast cancers, and (3) distinguishing good and poor outcome p16+ oropharyngeal tumors. We demonstrate that subsets of features identified by VINK provide similar or better classification or regression performance compared to the original high dimensional feature sets.

Real-time model learning using Incremental Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process Regression.

PubMed

Gijsberts, Arjan; Metta, Giorgio

2013-05-01

Novel applications in unstructured and non-stationary human environments require robots that learn from experience and adapt autonomously to changing conditions. Predictive models therefore not only need to be accurate, but should also be updated incrementally in real-time and require minimal human intervention. Incremental Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process Regression is an algorithm that is targeted specifically for use in this context. Rather than developing a novel algorithm from the ground up, the method is based on the thoroughly studied Gaussian Process Regression algorithm, therefore ensuring a solid theoretical foundation. Non-linearity and a bounded update complexity are achieved simultaneously by means of a finite dimensional random feature mapping that approximates a kernel function. As a result, the computational cost for each update remains constant over time. Finally, algorithmic simplicity and support for automated hyperparameter optimization ensures convenience when employed in practice. Empirical validation on a number of synthetic and real-life learning problems confirms that the performance of Incremental Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process Regression is superior with respect to the popular Locally Weighted Projection Regression, while computational requirements are found to be significantly lower. The method is therefore particularly suited for learning with real-time constraints or when computational resources are limited. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast estimation of diffusion tensors under Rician noise by the EM algorithm.

PubMed

Liu, Jia; Gasbarra, Dario; Railavo, Juha

2016-01-15

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is widely used to characterize, in vivo, the white matter of the central nerve system (CNS). This biological tissue contains much anatomic, structural and orientational information of fibers in human brain. Spectral data from the displacement distribution of water molecules located in the brain tissue are collected by a magnetic resonance scanner and acquired in the Fourier domain. After the Fourier inversion, the noise distribution is Gaussian in both real and imaginary parts and, as a consequence, the recorded magnitude data are corrupted by Rician noise. Statistical estimation of diffusion leads a non-linear regression problem. In this paper, we present a fast computational method for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of diffusivities under the Rician noise model based on the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. By using data augmentation, we are able to transform a non-linear regression problem into the generalized linear modeling framework, reducing dramatically the computational cost. The Fisher-scoring method is used for achieving fast convergence of the tensor parameter. The new method is implemented and applied using both synthetic and real data in a wide range of b-amplitudes up to 14,000s/mm(2). Higher accuracy and precision of the Rician estimates are achieved compared with other log-normal based methods. In addition, we extend the maximum likelihood (ML) framework to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in DTI under the aforementioned scheme by specifying the priors. We will describe how close numerically are the estimators of model parameters obtained through MLE and MAP estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

2017-11-01

Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

Multivariate Linear Regression and CART Regression Analysis of TBM Performance at Abu Hamour Phase-I Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakubowski, J.; Stypulkowski, J. B.; Bernardeau, F. G.

2017-12-01

The first phase of the Abu Hamour drainage and storm tunnel was completed in early 2017. The 9.5 km long, 3.7 m diameter tunnel was excavated with two Earth Pressure Balance (EPB) Tunnel Boring Machines from Herrenknecht. TBM operation processes were monitored and recorded by Data Acquisition and Evaluation System. The authors coupled collected TBM drive data with available information on rock mass properties, cleansed, completed with secondary variables and aggregated by weeks and shifts. Correlations and descriptive statistics charts were examined. Multivariate Linear Regression and CART regression tree models linking TBM penetration rate (PR), penetration per revolution (PPR) and field penetration index (FPI) with TBM operational and geotechnical characteristics were performed for the conditions of the weak/soft rock of Doha. Both regression methods are interpretable and the data were screened with different computational approaches allowing enriched insight. The primary goal of the analysis was to investigate empirical relations between multiple explanatory and responding variables, to search for best subsets of explanatory variables and to evaluate the strength of linear and non-linear relations. For each of the penetration indices, a predictive model coupling both regression methods was built and validated. The resultant models appeared to be stronger than constituent ones and indicated an opportunity for more accurate and robust TBM performance predictions.

Estimation of diffusion coefficients from voltammetric signals by support vector and gaussian process regression

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Support vector regression (SVR) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used for the analysis of electroanalytical experimental data to estimate diffusion coefficients. Results For simulated cyclic voltammograms based on the EC, Eqr, and EqrC mechanisms these regression algorithms in combination with nonlinear kernel/covariance functions yielded diffusion coefficients with higher accuracy as compared to the standard approach of calculating diffusion coefficients relying on the Nicholson-Shain equation. The level of accuracy achieved by SVR and GPR is virtually independent of the rate constants governing the respective reaction steps. Further, the reduction of high-dimensional voltammetric signals by manual selection of typical voltammetric peak features decreased the performance of both regression algorithms compared to a reduction by downsampling or principal component analysis. After training on simulated data sets, diffusion coefficients were estimated by the regression algorithms for experimental data comprising voltammetric signals for three organometallic complexes. Conclusions Estimated diffusion coefficients closely matched the values determined by the parameter fitting method, but reduced the required computational time considerably for one of the reaction mechanisms. The automated processing of voltammograms according to the regression algorithms yields better results than the conventional analysis of peak-related data. PMID:24987463

The mechanical properties of high speed GTAW weld and factors of nonlinear multiple regression model under external transverse magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Lin; Chang, Yunlong; Li, Yingmin; He, Youyou

2013-05-01

A transverse magnetic field was introduced to the arc plasma in the process of welding stainless steel tubes by high-speed Tungsten Inert Gas Arc Welding (TIG for short) without filler wire. The influence of external magnetic field on welding quality was investigated. 9 sets of parameters were designed by the means of orthogonal experiment. The welding joint tensile strength and form factor of weld were regarded as the main standards of welding quality. A binary quadratic nonlinear regression equation was established with the conditions of magnetic induction and flow rate of Ar gas. The residual standard deviation was calculated to adjust the accuracy of regression model. The results showed that, the regression model was correct and effective in calculating the tensile strength and aspect ratio of weld. Two 3D regression models were designed respectively, and then the impact law of magnetic induction on welding quality was researched.

Estimation of parameters of constant elasticity of substitution production functional model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi

2017-11-01

Nonlinear model building has become an increasing important powerful tool in mathematical economics. In recent years the popularity of applications of nonlinear models has dramatically been rising up. Several researchers in econometrics are very often interested in the inferential aspects of nonlinear regression models [6]. The present research study gives a distinct method of estimation of more complicated and highly nonlinear model viz Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functional model. Henningen et.al [5] proposed three solutions to avoid serious problems when estimating CES functions in 2012 and they are i) removing discontinuities by using the limits of the CES function and its derivative. ii) Circumventing large rounding errors by local linear approximations iii) Handling ill-behaved objective functions by a multi-dimensional grid search. Joel Chongeh et.al [7] discussed the estimation of the impact of capital and labour inputs to the gris output agri-food products using constant elasticity of substitution production function in Tanzanian context. Pol Antras [8] presented new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998.

On three dimensional object recognition and pose-determination: An abstraction based approach. Ph.D. Thesis - Michigan Univ. Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quek, Kok How Francis

1990-01-01

A method of computing reliable Gaussian and mean curvature sign-map descriptors from the polynomial approximation of surfaces was demonstrated. Such descriptors which are invariant under perspective variation are suitable for hypothesis generation. A means for determining the pose of constructed geometric forms whose algebraic surface descriptors are nonlinear in terms of their orienting parameters was developed. This was done by means of linear functions which are capable of approximating nonlinear forms and determining their parameters. It was shown that biquadratic surfaces are suitable companion linear forms for cylindrical approximation and parameter estimation. The estimates provided the initial parametric approximations necessary for a nonlinear regression stage to fine tune the estimates by fitting the actual nonlinear form to the data. A hypothesis-based split-merge algorithm for extraction and pose determination of cylinders and planes which merge smoothly into other surfaces was developed. It was shown that all split-merge algorithms are hypothesis-based. A finite-state algorithm for the extraction of the boundaries of run-length regions was developed. The computation takes advantage of the run list topology and boundary direction constraints implicit in the run-length encoding.

UCODE, a computer code for universal inverse modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

1999-01-01

This article presents the US Geological Survey computer program UCODE, which was developed in collaboration with the US Army Corps of Engineers Waterways Experiment Station and the International Ground Water Modeling Center of the Colorado School of Mines. UCODE performs inverse modeling, posed as a parameter-estimation problem, using nonlinear regression. Any application model or set of models can be used; the only requirement is that they have numerical (ASCII or text only) input and output files and that the numbers in these files have sufficient significant digits. Application models can include preprocessors and postprocessors as well as models related to the processes of interest (physical, chemical and so on), making UCODE extremely powerful for model calibration. Estimated parameters can be defined flexibly with user-specified functions. Observations to be matched in the regression can be any quantity for which a simulated equivalent value can be produced, thus simulated equivalent values are calculated using values that appear in the application model output files and can be manipulated with additive and multiplicative functions, if necessary. Prior, or direct, information on estimated parameters also can be included in the regression. The nonlinear regression problem is solved by minimizing a weighted least-squares objective function with respect to the parameter values using a modified Gauss-Newton method. Sensitivities needed for the method are calculated approximately by forward or central differences and problems and solutions related to this approximation are discussed. Statistics are calculated and printed for use in (1) diagnosing inadequate data or identifying parameters that probably cannot be estimated with the available data, (2) evaluating estimated parameter values, (3) evaluating the model representation of the actual processes and (4) quantifying the uncertainty of model simulated values. UCODE is intended for use on any computer operating system: it consists of algorithms programmed in perl, a freeware language designed for text manipulation and Fortran90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations.

Mixed-effects Gaussian process functional regression models with application to dose-response curve prediction.

PubMed

Shi, J Q; Wang, B; Will, E J; West, R M

2012-11-20

We propose a new semiparametric model for functional regression analysis, combining a parametric mixed-effects model with a nonparametric Gaussian process regression model, namely a mixed-effects Gaussian process functional regression model. The parametric component can provide explanatory information between the response and the covariates, whereas the nonparametric component can add nonlinearity. We can model the mean and covariance structures simultaneously, combining the information borrowed from other subjects with the information collected from each individual subject. We apply the model to dose-response curves that describe changes in the responses of subjects for differing levels of the dose of a drug or agent and have a wide application in many areas. We illustrate the method for the management of renal anaemia. An individual dose-response curve is improved when more information is included by this mechanism from the subject/patient over time, enabling a patient-specific treatment regime. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Closed-form solution for static pull-in voltage of electrostatically actuated clamped-clamped micro/nano beams under the effect of fringing field and van der Waals force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhojawala, V. M.; Vakharia, D. P.

2017-12-01

This investigation provides an accurate prediction of static pull-in voltage for clamped-clamped micro/nano beams based on distributed model. The Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used adapting geometric non-linearity of beam, internal (residual) stress, van der Waals force, distributed electrostatic force and fringing field effects for deriving governing differential equation. The Galerkin discretisation method is used to make reduced-order model of the governing differential equation. A regime plot is presented in the current work for determining the number of modes required in reduced-order model to obtain completely converged pull-in voltage for micro/nano beams. A closed-form relation is developed based on the relationship obtained from curve fitting of pull-in instability plots and subsequent non-linear regression for the proposed relation. The output of regression analysis provides Chi-square (χ 2) tolerance value equals to 1  ×  10-9, adjusted R-square value equals to 0.999 29 and P-value equals to zero, these statistical parameters indicate the convergence of non-linear fit, accuracy of fitted data and significance of the proposed model respectively. The closed-form equation is validated using available data of experimental and numerical results. The relative maximum error of 4.08% in comparison to several available experimental and numerical data proves the reliability of the proposed closed-form equation.

Does physical exposure throughout working life influence chair-rise performance in midlife? A retrospective cohort study of associations between work and physical function in Denmark

PubMed Central

Møller, Anne; Reventlow, Susanne; Hansen, Åse Marie; Andersen, Lars L; Siersma, Volkert; Lund, Rikke; Avlund, Kirsten; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Mortensen, Ole Steen

2015-01-01

Objectives Our aim was to study associations between physical exposures throughout working life and physical function measured as chair-rise performance in midlife. Methods The Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank (CAMB) provided data about employment and measures of physical function. Individual job histories were assigned exposures from a job exposure matrix. Exposures were standardised to ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in 1 year), stand-years (standing/walking for 6 h each day in 1 year) and kneel-years (kneeling for 1 h each day in 1 year). The associations between exposure-years and chair-rise performance (number of chair-rises in 30 s) were analysed in multivariate linear and non-linear regression models adjusted for covariates. Results Mean age among the 5095 participants was 59 years in both genders, and, on average, men achieved 21.58 (SD=5.60) and women 20.38 (SD=5.33) chair-rises in 30 s. Physical exposures were associated with poorer chair-rise performance in both men and women, however, only associations between lifting and standing/walking and chair-rise remained statistically significant among men in the final model. Spline regression analyses showed non-linear associations and confirmed the findings. Conclusions Higher physical exposure throughout working life is associated with slightly poorer chair-rise performance. The associations between exposure and outcome were non-linear. PMID:26537502

Predicting the dissolution kinetics of silicate glasses using machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anoop Krishnan, N. M.; Mangalathu, Sujith; Smedskjaer, Morten M.; Tandia, Adama; Burton, Henry; Bauchy, Mathieu

2018-05-01

Predicting the dissolution rates of silicate glasses in aqueous conditions is a complex task as the underlying mechanism(s) remain poorly understood and the dissolution kinetics can depend on a large number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Here, we assess the potential of data-driven models based on machine learning to predict the dissolution rates of various aluminosilicate glasses exposed to a wide range of solution pH values, from acidic to caustic conditions. Four classes of machine learning methods are investigated, namely, linear regression, support vector machine regression, random forest, and artificial neural network. We observe that, although linear methods all fail to describe the dissolution kinetics, the artificial neural network approach offers excellent predictions, thanks to its inherent ability to handle non-linear data. Overall, we suggest that a more extensive use of machine learning approaches could significantly accelerate the design of novel glasses with tailored properties.

Multiple concurrent recursive least squares identification with application to on-line spacecraft mass-property identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Edward (Inventor)

2006-01-01

The present invention is a method for identifying unknown parameters in a system having a set of governing equations describing its behavior that cannot be put into regression form with the unknown parameters linearly represented. In this method, the vector of unknown parameters is segmented into a plurality of groups where each individual group of unknown parameters may be isolated linearly by manipulation of said equations. Multiple concurrent and independent recursive least squares identification of each said group run, treating other unknown parameters appearing in their regression equation as if they were known perfectly, with said values provided by recursive least squares estimation from the other groups, thereby enabling the use of fast, compact, efficient linear algorithms to solve problems that would otherwise require nonlinear solution approaches. This invention is presented with application to identification of mass and thruster properties for a thruster-controlled spacecraft.

Linear and nonlinear methods in modeling the aqueous solubility of organic compounds.

PubMed

Catana, Cornel; Gao, Hua; Orrenius, Christian; Stouten, Pieter F W

2005-01-01

Solubility data for 930 diverse compounds have been analyzed using linear Partial Least Square (PLS) and nonlinear PLS methods, Continuum Regression (CR), and Neural Networks (NN). 1D and 2D descriptors from MOE package in combination with E-state or ISIS keys have been used. The best model was obtained using linear PLS for a combination between 22 MOE descriptors and 65 ISIS keys. It has a correlation coefficient (r2) of 0.935 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.468 log molar solubility (log S(w)). The model validated on a test set of 177 compounds not included in the training set has r2 0.911 and RMSE 0.475 log S(w). The descriptors were ranked according to their importance, and at the top of the list have been found the 22 MOE descriptors. The CR model produced results as good as PLS, and because of the way in which cross-validation has been done it is expected to be a valuable tool in prediction besides PLS model. The statistics obtained using nonlinear methods did not surpass those got with linear ones. The good statistic obtained for linear PLS and CR recommends these models to be used in prediction when it is difficult or impossible to make experimental measurements, for virtual screening, combinatorial library design, and efficient leads optimization.

Estimating top-of-atmosphere thermal infrared radiance using MERRA-2 atmospheric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleynhans, Tania; Montanaro, Matthew; Gerace, Aaron; Kanan, Christopher

2017-05-01

Thermal infrared satellite images have been widely used in environmental studies. However, satellites have limited temporal resolution, e.g., 16 day Landsat or 1 to 2 day Terra MODIS. This paper investigates the use of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data product, produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to predict global topof-atmosphere (TOA) thermal infrared radiance. The high temporal resolution of the MERRA-2 data product presents opportunities for novel research and applications. Various methods were applied to estimate TOA radiance from MERRA-2 variables namely (1) a parameterized physics based method, (2) Linear regression models and (3) non-linear Support Vector Regression. Model prediction accuracy was evaluated using temporally and spatially coincident Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared data as reference data. This research found that Support Vector Regression with a radial basis function kernel produced the lowest error rates. Sources of errors are discussed and defined. Further research is currently being conducted to train deep learning models to predict TOA thermal radiance

Application of artificial neural network to fMRI regression analysis.

PubMed

Misaki, Masaya; Miyauchi, Satoru

2006-01-15

We used an artificial neural network (ANN) to detect correlations between event sequences and fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging) signals. The layered feed-forward neural network, given a series of events as inputs and the fMRI signal as a supervised signal, performed a non-linear regression analysis. This type of ANN is capable of approximating any continuous function, and thus this analysis method can detect any fMRI signals that correlated with corresponding events. Because of the flexible nature of ANNs, fitting to autocorrelation noise is a problem in fMRI analyses. We avoided this problem by using cross-validation and an early stopping procedure. The results showed that the ANN could detect various responses with different time courses. The simulation analysis also indicated an additional advantage of ANN over non-parametric methods in detecting parametrically modulated responses, i.e., it can detect various types of parametric modulations without a priori assumptions. The ANN regression analysis is therefore beneficial for exploratory fMRI analyses in detecting continuous changes in responses modulated by changes in input values.

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reikard, Gordon

2011-06-01

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

An algebraic method for constructing stable and consistent autoregressive filters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harlim, John, E-mail: jharlim@psu.edu; Department of Meteorology, the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802; Hong, Hoon, E-mail: hong@ncsu.edu

2015-02-15

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the classical stability condition for the AR model. By consistent, we refer to the classical consistency constraints of Adams–Bashforth methods of order-two. One attractive feature of this algebraic method is that the model parameters can be obtained without directly knowing any training data set as opposed to many standard, regression-based parameterization methods. It takes only long-time average statistics as inputs. The proposed method provides amore » discretization time step interval which guarantees the existence of stable and consistent AR model and simultaneously produces the parameters for the AR models. In our numerical examples with two chaotic time series with different characteristics of decaying time scales, we find that the proposed AR models produce significantly more accurate short-term predictive skill and comparable filtering skill relative to the linear regression-based AR models. These encouraging results are robust across wide ranges of discretization times, observation times, and observation noise variances. Finally, we also find that the proposed model produces an improved short-time prediction relative to the linear regression-based AR-models in forecasting a data set that characterizes the variability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a dominant tropical atmospheric wave pattern.« less

Health state utility instruments compared: inquiring into nonlinearity across EQ-5D-5L, SF-6D, HUI-3 and 15D.

PubMed

Gamst-Klaussen, Thor; Chen, Gang; Lamu, Admassu N; Olsen, Jan Abel

2016-07-01

Different health state utility (HSU) instruments produce different utilities for the same individuals, thereby compromising the intended comparability of economic evaluations of health care interventions. When developing crosswalks, previous studies have indicated nonlinear relationships. This paper inquires into the degree of nonlinearity across the four most widely used HSU-instruments and proposes exchange rates that differ depending on the severity levels of the health state utility scale. Overall, 7933 respondents from six countries, 1760 in a non-diagnosed healthy group and 6173 in seven disease groups, reported their health states using four different instruments: EQ-5D-5L, SF-6D, HUI-3 and 15D. Quantile regressions investigate the degree of nonlinear relationships between these instruments. To compare the instruments across different disease severities, we split the health state utility scale into utility intervals with 0.2 successive decrements in utility starting from perfect health at 1.00. Exchange rates (ERs) are calculated as the mean utility difference between two utility intervals on one HSU-instrument divided by the difference in mean utility on another HSU-instrument. Quantile regressions reveal significant nonlinear relationships across all four HSU-instruments. The degrees of nonlinearities differ, with a maximum degree of difference in the coefficients along the health state utility scale of 3.34 when SF-6D is regressed on EQ-5D. At the lower end of the health state utility scale, the exchange rate from SF-6D to EQ-5D is 2.11, whilst at the upper end it is 0.38. Comparisons at different utility levels illustrate the fallacy of using linear functions as crosswalks between HSU-instruments. The existence of nonlinear relationships between different HSU-instruments suggests that level-specific exchange rates should be used when converting a change in utility on the instrument used, onto a corresponding utility change had another instrument been used. Accounting for nonlinearities will increase the validity of the comparison for decision makers when faced with a choice between interventions whose calculations of QALY gains have been based on different HSU-instruments.

Prediction of maize phenotype based on whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphisms using deep belief networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmatia, H.; Kusuma, W. A.; Hasibuan, L. S.

2017-05-01

Selection in plant breeding could be more effective and more efficient if it is based on genomic data. Genomic selection (GS) is a new approach for plant-breeding selection that exploits genomic data through a mechanism called genomic prediction (GP). Most of GP models used linear methods that ignore effects of interaction among genes and effects of higher order nonlinearities. Deep belief network (DBN), one of the architectural in deep learning methods, is able to model data in high level of abstraction that involves nonlinearities effects of the data. This study implemented DBN for developing a GP model utilizing whole-genome Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) as data for training and testing. The case study was a set of traits in maize. The maize dataset was acquisitioned from CIMMYT’s (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) Global Maize program. Based on Pearson correlation, DBN is outperformed than other methods, kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian LASSO (BL), best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP), in case allegedly non-additive traits. DBN achieves correlation of 0.579 within -1 to 1 range.

Optimization of isotherm models for pesticide sorption on biopolymer-nanoclay composite by error analysis.

PubMed

Narayanan, Neethu; Gupta, Suman; Gajbhiye, V T; Manjaiah, K M

2017-04-01

A carboxy methyl cellulose-nano organoclay (nano montmorillonite modified with 35-45 wt % dimethyl dialkyl (C 14 -C 18 ) amine (DMDA)) composite was prepared by solution intercalation method. The prepared composite was characterized by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-Ray diffraction spectroscopy (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The composite was utilized for its pesticide sorption efficiency for atrazine, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam. The sorption data was fitted into Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms using linear and non linear methods. The linear regression method suggested best fitting of sorption data into Type II Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. In order to avoid the bias resulting from linearization, seven different error parameters were also analyzed by non linear regression method. The non linear error analysis suggested that the sorption data fitted well into Langmuir model rather than in Freundlich model. The maximum sorption capacity, Q 0 (μg/g) was given by imidacloprid (2000) followed by thiamethoxam (1667) and atrazine (1429). The study suggests that the degree of determination of linear regression alone cannot be used for comparing the best fitting of Langmuir and Freundlich models and non-linear error analysis needs to be done to avoid inaccurate results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discordance between Prevalent Vertebral Fracture and Vertebral Strength Estimated by the Finite Element Method Based on Quantitative Computed Tomography in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Bone fragility is increased in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but a useful method to estimate bone fragility in T2DM patients is lacking because bone mineral density alone is not sufficient to assess the risk of fracture. This study investigated the association between prevalent vertebral fractures (VFs) and the vertebral strength index estimated by the quantitative computed tomography-based nonlinear finite element method (QCT-based nonlinear FEM) using multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) for clinical practice use. Research Design and Methods A cross-sectional observational study was conducted on 54 postmenopausal women and 92 men over 50 years of age, all of whom had T2DM. The vertebral strength index was compared in patients with and without VFs confirmed by spinal radiographs. A standard FEM procedure was performed with the application of known parameters for the bone material properties obtained from nondiabetic subjects. Results A total of 20 women (37.0%) and 39 men (42.4%) with VFs were identified. The vertebral strength index was significantly higher in the men than in the women (P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the vertebral strength index was significantly and positively correlated with the spinal bone mineral density (BMD) and inversely associated with age in both genders. There were no significant differences in the parameters, including the vertebral strength index, between patients with and without VFs. Logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, spine BMD, BMI, HbA1c, and duration of T2DM did not indicate a significant relationship between the vertebral strength index and the presence of VFs. Conclusion The vertebral strength index calculated by QCT-based nonlinear FEM using material property parameters obtained from nondiabetic subjects, whose risk of fracture is lower than that of T2DM patients, was not significantly associated with bone fragility in patients with T2DM. This discordance may indirectly suggest that patients with T2DM have deteriorated bone material compared with nondiabetic subjects, a potential cause of bone fragility in T2DM patients. PMID:26642210

The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China

PubMed Central

Pei, Ling-Ling; Li, Qin

2018-01-01

The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China’s pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N)) model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS) method. The Gauss–Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N) model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N) and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC), and per capita emissions of SO2 and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996–2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N) model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO2 emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N) model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO2 and dust reduce accordingly. PMID:29517985

Comparison of BOD results obtained by dilution and manometric methods in sanitary landfill leachates.

PubMed

Ceçen, F; Yangin, C

2000-12-01

This study examined the determination of BOD in landfill leachates by dilution (D-method) and manometric methods (M-method). The differences in results were discussed based on statistical tests. The effects of sample dilution, seeding, chloride and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) level were examined. The M-method was found to be more sensitive to increases in chloride and TKN concentrations. However, in the M-method the positive interference of nitrogenous BOD (NBOD) to carbonaceous BOD (CBOD) was more successfully prevented. The BOD rate constant k and the ultimate BOD (BODu) were estimated by non-linear regression. With the M-method these parameters could be more reliably estimated than the D-method. Suggestions were made for BOD analyses in landfill leachates in future studies.

Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Nonignorable Missing Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Sik-Yum

2006-01-01

A Bayesian approach is developed for analyzing nonlinear structural equation models with nonignorable missing data. The nonignorable missingness mechanism is specified by a logistic regression model. A hybrid algorithm that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is used to produce the joint Bayesian estimates of…

Symplectic geometry spectrum regression for prediction of noisy time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Hong-Bo; Dokos, Socrates; Sivakumar, Bellie; Mengersen, Kerrie

2016-05-01

We present the symplectic geometry spectrum regression (SGSR) technique as well as a regularized method based on SGSR for prediction of nonlinear time series. The main tool of analysis is the symplectic geometry spectrum analysis, which decomposes a time series into the sum of a small number of independent and interpretable components. The key to successful regularization is to damp higher order symplectic geometry spectrum components. The effectiveness of SGSR and its superiority over local approximation using ordinary least squares are demonstrated through prediction of two noisy synthetic chaotic time series (Lorenz and Rössler series), and then tested for prediction of three real-world data sets (Mississippi River flow data and electromyographic and mechanomyographic signal recorded from human body).

Deriving the Regression Equation without Using Calculus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gordon, Sheldon P.; Gordon, Florence S.

2004-01-01

Probably the one "new" mathematical topic that is most responsible for modernizing courses in college algebra and precalculus over the last few years is the idea of fitting a function to a set of data in the sense of a least squares fit. Whether it be simple linear regression or nonlinear regression, this topic opens the door to applying the…

Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition

EPA Science Inventory

Boosted regression tree (BRT) models were developed to quantify the nonlinear relationships between landscape variables and nutrient concentrations in a mesoscale mixed land cover watershed during base-flow conditions. Factors that affect instream biological components, based on ...

Analysis of flight data from a High-Incidence Research Model by system identification methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batterson, James G.; Klein, Vladislav

1989-01-01

Data partitioning and modified stepwise regression were applied to recorded flight data from a Royal Aerospace Establishment high incidence research model. An aerodynamic model structure and corresponding stability and control derivatives were determined for angles of attack between 18 and 30 deg. Several nonlinearities in angles of attack and sideslip as well as a unique roll-dominated set of lateral modes were found. All flight estimated values were compared to available wind tunnel measurements.

One- and two-stage Arrhenius models for pharmaceutical shelf life prediction.

PubMed

Fan, Zhewen; Zhang, Lanju

2015-01-01

One of the most challenging aspects of the pharmaceutical development is the demonstration and estimation of chemical stability. It is imperative that pharmaceutical products be stable for two or more years. Long-term stability studies are required to support such shelf life claim at registration. However, during drug development to facilitate formulation and dosage form selection, an accelerated stability study with stressed storage condition is preferred to quickly obtain a good prediction of shelf life under ambient storage conditions. Such a prediction typically uses Arrhenius equation that describes relationship between degradation rate and temperature (and humidity). Existing methods usually rely on the assumption of normality of the errors. In addition, shelf life projection is usually based on confidence band of a regression line. However, the coverage probability of a method is often overlooked or under-reported. In this paper, we introduce two nonparametric bootstrap procedures for shelf life estimation based on accelerated stability testing, and compare them with a one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius prediction model. Our simulation results demonstrate that one-stage nonlinear Arrhenius method has significant lower coverage than nominal levels. Our bootstrap method gave better coverage and led to a shelf life prediction closer to that based on long-term stability data.

Direct and accelerated parameter mapping using the unscented Kalman filter.

PubMed

Zhao, Li; Feng, Xue; Meyer, Craig H

2016-05-01

To accelerate parameter mapping using a new paradigm that combines image reconstruction and model regression as a parameter state-tracking problem. In T2 mapping, the T2 map is first encoded in parameter space by multi-TE measurements and then encoded by Fourier transformation with readout/phase encoding gradients. Using a state transition function and a measurement function, the unscented Kalman filter can describe T2 mapping as a dynamic system and directly estimate the T2 map from the k-space data. The proposed method was validated with a numerical brain phantom and volunteer experiments with a multiple-contrast spin echo sequence. Its performance was compared with a conjugate-gradient nonlinear inversion method at undersampling factors of 2 to 8. An accelerated pulse sequence was developed based on this method to achieve prospective undersampling. Compared with the nonlinear inversion reconstruction, the proposed method had higher precision, improved structural similarity and reduced normalized root mean squared error, with acceleration factors up to 8 in numerical phantom and volunteer studies. This work describes a new perspective on parameter mapping by state tracking. The unscented Kalman filter provides a highly accelerated and efficient paradigm for T2 mapping. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Incremental online learning in high dimensions.

PubMed

Vijayakumar, Sethu; D'Souza, Aaron; Schaal, Stefan

2005-12-01

Locally weighted projection regression (LWPR) is a new algorithm for incremental nonlinear function approximation in high-dimensional spaces with redundant and irrelevant input dimensions. At its core, it employs nonparametric regression with locally linear models. In order to stay computationally efficient and numerically robust, each local model performs the regression analysis with a small number of univariate regressions in selected directions in input space in the spirit of partial least squares regression. We discuss when and how local learning techniques can successfully work in high-dimensional spaces and review the various techniques for local dimensionality reduction before finally deriving the LWPR algorithm. The properties of LWPR are that it (1) learns rapidly with second-order learning methods based on incremental training, (2) uses statistically sound stochastic leave-one-out cross validation for learning without the need to memorize training data, (3) adjusts its weighting kernels based on only local information in order to minimize the danger of negative interference of incremental learning, (4) has a computational complexity that is linear in the number of inputs, and (5) can deal with a large number of-possibly redundant-inputs, as shown in various empirical evaluations with up to 90 dimensional data sets. For a probabilistic interpretation, predictive variance and confidence intervals are derived. To our knowledge, LWPR is the first truly incremental spatially localized learning method that can successfully and efficiently operate in very high-dimensional spaces.

A modified temporal criterion to meta-optimize the extended Kalman filter for land cover classification of remotely sensed time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salmon, B. P.; Kleynhans, W.; Olivier, J. C.; van den Bergh, F.; Wessels, K. J.

2018-05-01

Humans are transforming land cover at an ever-increasing rate. Accurate geographical maps on land cover, especially rural and urban settlements are essential to planning sustainable development. Time series extracted from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface reflectance products have been used to differentiate land cover classes by analyzing the seasonal patterns in reflectance values. The proper fitting of a parametric model to these time series usually requires several adjustments to the regression method. To reduce the workload, a global setting of parameters is done to the regression method for a geographical area. In this work we have modified a meta-optimization approach to setting a regression method to extract the parameters on a per time series basis. The standard deviation of the model parameters and magnitude of residuals are used as scoring function. We successfully fitted a triply modulated model to the seasonal patterns of our study area using a non-linear extended Kalman filter (EKF). The approach uses temporal information which significantly reduces the processing time and storage requirements to process each time series. It also derives reliability metrics for each time series individually. The features extracted using the proposed method are classified with a support vector machine and the performance of the method is compared to the original approach on our ground truth data.

New method for calculating a mathematical expression for streamflow recession

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rutledge, Albert T.

1991-01-01

An empirical method has been devised to calculate the master recession curve, which is a mathematical expression for streamflow recession during times of negligible direct runoff. The method is based on the assumption that the storage-delay factor, which is the time per log cycle of streamflow recession, varies linearly with the logarithm of streamflow. The resulting master recession curve can be nonlinear. The method can be executed by a computer program that reads a data file of daily mean streamflow, then allows the user to select several near-linear segments of streamflow recession. The storage-delay factor for each segment is one of the coefficients of the equation that results from linear least-squares regression. Using results for each recession segment, a mathematical expression of the storage-delay factor as a function of the log of streamflow is determined by linear least-squares regression. The master recession curve, which is a second-order polynomial expression for time as a function of log of streamflow, is then derived using the coefficients of this function.

Fisher Scoring Method for Parameter Estimation of Geographically Weighted Ordinal Logistic Regression (GWOLR) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi; Nugrahani Putri, Aulia

2017-06-01

GWOLR model combines geographically weighted regression (GWR) and (ordinal logistic reression) OLR models. Its parameter estimation employs maximum likelihood estimation. Such parameter estimation, however, yields difficult-to-solve system of nonlinear equations, and therefore numerical approximation approach is required. The iterative approximation approach, in general, uses Newton-Raphson (NR) method. The NR method has a disadvantage—its Hessian matrix is always the second derivatives of each iteration so it does not always produce converging results. With regard to this matter, NR model is modified by substituting its Hessian matrix into Fisher information matrix, which is termed Fisher scoring (FS). The present research seeks to determine GWOLR model parameter estimation using Fisher scoring method and apply the estimation on data of the level of vulnerability to Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Semarang. The research concludes that health facilities give the greatest contribution to the probability of the number of DHF sufferers in both villages. Based on the number of the sufferers, IR category of DHF in both villages can be determined.

R programming for parameters estimation of geographically weighted ordinal logistic regression (GWOLR) model based on Newton Raphson

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuhdi, Shaifudin; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari

2017-03-01

GWOLR model used for represent relationship between dependent variable has categories and scale of category is ordinal with independent variable influenced the geographical location of the observation site. Parameters estimation of GWOLR model use maximum likelihood provide system of nonlinear equations and hard to be found the result in analytic resolution. By finishing it, it means determine the maximum completion, this thing associated with optimizing problem. The completion nonlinear system of equations optimize use numerical approximation, which one is Newton Raphson method. The purpose of this research is to make iteration algorithm Newton Raphson and program using R software to estimate GWOLR model. Based on the research obtained that program in R can be used to estimate the parameters of GWOLR model by forming a syntax program with command "while".

String resistance detector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, A. Daniel (Inventor); Davies, Francis J. (Inventor)

2007-01-01

Method and system are disclosed for determining individual string resistance in a network of strings when the current through a parallel connected string is unknown and when the voltage across a series connected string is unknown. The method/system of the invention involves connecting one or more frequency-varying impedance components with known electrical characteristics to each string and applying a frequency-varying input signal to the network of strings. The frequency-varying impedance components may be one or more capacitors, inductors, or both, and are selected so that each string is uniquely identifiable in the output signal resulting from the frequency-varying input signal. Numerical methods, such as non-linear regression, may then be used to resolve the resistance associated with each string.

Visualizing Confidence Bands for Semiparametrically Estimated Nonlinear Relations among Latent Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pek, Jolynn; Chalmers, R. Philip; Kok, Bethany E.; Losardo, Diane

2015-01-01

Structural equation mixture models (SEMMs), when applied as a semiparametric model (SPM), can adequately recover potentially nonlinear latent relationships without their specification. This SPM is useful for exploratory analysis when the form of the latent regression is unknown. The purpose of this article is to help users familiar with structural…

Non-Linear Relationship between Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in China: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models

PubMed Central

Wang, Zheng-Xin; Hao, Peng; Yao, Pei-Yi

2017-01-01

The non-linear relationship between provincial economic growth and carbon emissions is investigated by using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. The research indicates that, on the condition of separately taking Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc), energy structure (Es), and urbanisation level (Ul) as transition variables, three models all reject the null hypothesis of a linear relationship, i.e., a non-linear relationship exists. The results show that the three models all contain only one transition function but different numbers of location parameters. The model taking GDPpc as the transition variable has two location parameters, while the other two models separately considering Es and Ul as the transition variables both contain one location parameter. The three models applied in the study all favourably describe the non-linear relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China. It also can be seen that the conversion rate of the influence of Ul on per capita CO2 emissions is significantly higher than those of GDPpc and Es on per capita CO2 emissions. PMID:29236083

Analysis of nonlinear relationships in dual epidemics, and its application to the management of grapevine downy and powdery mildews.

PubMed

Savary, Serge; Delbac, Lionel; Rochas, Amélie; Taisant, Guillaume; Willocquet, Laetitia

2009-08-01

Dual epidemics are defined as epidemics developing on two or several plant organs in the course of a cropping season. Agricultural pathosystems where such epidemics develop are often very important, because the harvestable part is one of the organs affected. These epidemics also are often difficult to manage, because the linkage between epidemiological components occurring on different organs is poorly understood, and because prediction of the risk toward the harvestable organs is difficult. In the case of downy mildew (DM) and powdery mildew (PM) of grapevine, nonlinear modeling and logistic regression indicated nonlinearity in the foliage-cluster relationships. Nonlinear modeling enabled the parameterization of a transmission coefficient that numerically links the two components, leaves and clusters, in DM and PM epidemics. Logistic regression analysis yielded a series of probabilistic models that enabled predicting preset levels of cluster infection risks based on DM and PM severities on the foliage at successive crop stages. The usefulness of this framework for tactical decision-making for disease control is discussed.

Non-Linear Relationship between Economic Growth and CO₂ Emissions in China: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models.

PubMed

Wang, Zheng-Xin; Hao, Peng; Yao, Pei-Yi

2017-12-13

The non-linear relationship between provincial economic growth and carbon emissions is investigated by using panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) models. The research indicates that, on the condition of separately taking Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc), energy structure (Es), and urbanisation level (Ul) as transition variables, three models all reject the null hypothesis of a linear relationship, i.e., a non-linear relationship exists. The results show that the three models all contain only one transition function but different numbers of location parameters. The model taking GDPpc as the transition variable has two location parameters, while the other two models separately considering Es and Ul as the transition variables both contain one location parameter. The three models applied in the study all favourably describe the non-linear relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in China. It also can be seen that the conversion rate of the influence of Ul on per capita CO₂ emissions is significantly higher than those of GDPpc and Es on per capita CO₂ emissions.

Combined chamber-tower approach: Using eddy covariance measurements to cross-validate carbon fluxes modeled from manual chamber campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brümmer, C.; Moffat, A. M.; Huth, V.; Augustin, J.; Herbst, M.; Kutsch, W. L.

2016-12-01

Manual carbon dioxide flux measurements with closed chambers at scheduled campaigns are a versatile method to study management effects at small scales in multiple-plot experiments. The eddy covariance technique has the advantage of quasi-continuous measurements but requires large homogeneous areas of a few hectares. To evaluate the uncertainties associated with interpolating from individual campaigns to the whole vegetation period, we installed both techniques at an agricultural site in Northern Germany. The presented comparison covers two cropping seasons, winter oilseed rape in 2012/13 and winter wheat in 2013/14. Modeling half-hourly carbon fluxes from campaigns is commonly performed based on non-linear regressions for the light response and respiration. The daily averages of net CO2 modeled from chamber data deviated from eddy covariance measurements in the range of ± 5 g C m-2 day-1. To understand the observed differences and to disentangle the effects, we performed four additional setups (expert versus default settings of the non-linear regressions based algorithm, purely empirical modeling with artificial neural networks versus non-linear regressions, cross-validating using eddy covariance measurements as campaign fluxes, weekly versus monthly scheduling of campaigns) to model the half-hourly carbon fluxes for the whole vegetation period. The good agreement of the seasonal course of net CO2 at plot and field scale for our agricultural site demonstrates that both techniques are robust and yield consistent results at seasonal time scale even for a managed ecosystem with high temporal dynamics in the fluxes. This allows combining the respective advantages of factorial experiments at plot scale with dense time series data at field scale. Furthermore, the information from the quasi-continuous eddy covariance measurements can be used to derive vegetation proxies to support the interpolation of carbon fluxes in-between the manual chamber campaigns.

Machine Learning to Improve Energy Expenditure Estimation in Children With Disabilities: A Pilot Study in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy.

PubMed

Pande, Amit; Mohapatra, Prasant; Nicorici, Alina; Han, Jay J

2016-07-19

Children with physical impairments are at a greater risk for obesity and decreased physical activity. A better understanding of physical activity pattern and energy expenditure (EE) would lead to a more targeted approach to intervention. This study focuses on studying the use of machine-learning algorithms for EE estimation in children with disabilities. A pilot study was conducted on children with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) to identify important factors for determining EE and develop a novel algorithm to accurately estimate EE from wearable sensor-collected data. There were 7 boys with DMD, 6 healthy control boys, and 22 control adults recruited. Data were collected using smartphone accelerometer and chest-worn heart rate sensors. The gold standard EE values were obtained from the COSMED K4b2 portable cardiopulmonary metabolic unit worn by boys (aged 6-10 years) with DMD and controls. Data from this sensor setup were collected simultaneously during a series of concurrent activities. Linear regression and nonlinear machine-learning-based approaches were used to analyze the relationship between accelerometer and heart rate readings and COSMED values. Existing calorimetry equations using linear regression and nonlinear machine-learning-based models, developed for healthy adults and young children, give low correlation to actual EE values in children with disabilities (14%-40%). The proposed model for boys with DMD uses ensemble machine learning techniques and gives a 91% correlation with actual measured EE values (root mean square error of 0.017). Our results confirm that the methods developed to determine EE using accelerometer and heart rate sensor values in normal adults are not appropriate for children with disabilities and should not be used. A much more accurate model is obtained using machine-learning-based nonlinear regression specifically developed for this target population. ©Amit Pande, Prasant Mohapatra, Alina Nicorici, Jay J Han. Originally published in JMIR Rehabilitation and Assistive Technology (http://rehab.jmir.org), 19.07.2016.

Ultrasensitive surveillance of sensors and processes

DOEpatents

Wegerich, Stephan W.; Jarman, Kristin K.; Gross, Kenneth C.

2001-01-01

A method and apparatus for monitoring a source of data for determining an operating state of a working system. The method includes determining a sensor (or source of data) arrangement associated with monitoring the source of data for a system, activating a method for performing a sequential probability ratio test if the data source includes a single data (sensor) source, activating a second method for performing a regression sequential possibility ratio testing procedure if the arrangement includes a pair of sensors (data sources) with signals which are linearly or non-linearly related; activating a third method for performing a bounded angle ratio test procedure if the sensor arrangement includes multiple sensors and utilizing at least one of the first, second and third methods to accumulate sensor signals and determining the operating state of the system.

Ultrasensitive surveillance of sensors and processes

DOEpatents

Wegerich, Stephan W.; Jarman, Kristin K.; Gross, Kenneth C.

1999-01-01

A method and apparatus for monitoring a source of data for determining an operating state of a working system. The method includes determining a sensor (or source of data) arrangement associated with monitoring the source of data for a system, activating a method for performing a sequential probability ratio test if the data source includes a single data (sensor) source, activating a second method for performing a regression sequential possibility ratio testing procedure if the arrangement includes a pair of sensors (data sources) with signals which are linearly or non-linearly related; activating a third method for performing a bounded angle ratio test procedure if the sensor arrangement includes multiple sensors and utilizing at least one of the first, second and third methods to accumulate sensor signals and determining the operating state of the system.

Development and Application of Nonlinear Land-Use Regression Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champendal, Alexandre; Kanevski, Mikhail; Huguenot, Pierre-Emmanuel

2014-05-01

The problem of air pollution modelling in urban zones is of great importance both from scientific and applied points of view. At present there are several fundamental approaches either based on science-based modelling (air pollution dispersion) or on the application of space-time geostatistical methods (e.g. family of kriging models or conditional stochastic simulations). Recently, there were important developments in so-called Land Use Regression (LUR) models. These models take into account geospatial information (e.g. traffic network, sources of pollution, average traffic, population census, land use, etc.) at different scales, for example, using buffering operations. Usually the dimension of the input space (number of independent variables) is within the range of (10-100). It was shown that LUR models have some potential to model complex and highly variable patterns of air pollution in urban zones. Most of LUR models currently used are linear models. In the present research the nonlinear LUR models are developed and applied for Geneva city. Mainly two nonlinear data-driven models were elaborated: multilayer perceptron and random forest. An important part of the research deals also with a comprehensive exploratory data analysis using statistical, geostatistical and time series tools. Unsupervised self-organizing maps were applied to better understand space-time patterns of the pollution. The real data case study deals with spatial-temporal air pollution data of Geneva (2002-2011). Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has caught our attention. It has effects on human health and on plants; NO2 contributes to the phenomenon of acid rain. The negative effects of nitrogen dioxides on plants are the reduction of the growth, production and pesticide resistance. And finally, the effects on materials: nitrogen dioxide increases the corrosion. The data used for this study consist of a set of 106 NO2 passive sensors. 80 were used to build the models and the remaining 36 have constituted the testing set. Missing data have been completed using multiple linear regression and annual average values of pollutant concentrations were computed. All sensors are dispersed homogeneously over the central urban area of Geneva. The main result of the study is that the nonlinear LUR models developed have demonstrated their efficiency in modelling complex phrenomena of air pollution in urban zones and significantly reduced the testing error in comparison with linear models. Further research deals with the development and application of other non-linear data-driven models (Kanevski et al. 2009). References Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A. and Timonin V. (2009). Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, Applications and Software. EPLF Press, Lausanne.

An asymptotic theory for cross-correlation between auto-correlated sequences and its application on neuroimaging data.

PubMed

Zhou, Yunyi; Tao, Chenyang; Lu, Wenlian; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-20

Functional connectivity is among the most important tools to study brain. The correlation coefficient, between time series of different brain areas, is the most popular method to quantify functional connectivity. Correlation coefficient in practical use assumes the data to be temporally independent. However, the time series data of brain can manifest significant temporal auto-correlation. A widely applicable method is proposed for correcting temporal auto-correlation. We considered two types of time series models: (1) auto-regressive-moving-average model, (2) nonlinear dynamical system model with noisy fluctuations, and derived their respective asymptotic distributions of correlation coefficient. These two types of models are most commonly used in neuroscience studies. We show the respective asymptotic distributions share a unified expression. We have verified the validity of our method, and shown our method exhibited sufficient statistical power for detecting true correlation on numerical experiments. Employing our method on real dataset yields more robust functional network and higher classification accuracy than conventional methods. Our method robustly controls the type I error while maintaining sufficient statistical power for detecting true correlation in numerical experiments, where existing methods measuring association (linear and nonlinear) fail. In this work, we proposed a widely applicable approach for correcting the effect of temporal auto-correlation on functional connectivity. Empirical results favor the use of our method in functional network analysis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Pan evaporation modeling using six different heuristic computing methods in different climates of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lunche; Kisi, Ozgur; Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad; Li, Hui

2017-01-01

Pan evaporation (Ep) plays important roles in agricultural water resources management. One of the basic challenges is modeling Ep using limited climatic parameters because there are a number of factors affecting the evaporation rate. This study investigated the abilities of six different soft computing methods, multi-layer perceptron (MLP), generalized regression neural network (GRNN), fuzzy genetic (FG), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems with grid partition (ANFIS-GP), and two regression methods, multiple linear regression (MLR) and Stephens and Stewart model (SS) in predicting monthly Ep. Long-term climatic data at various sites crossing a wide range of climates during 1961-2000 are used for model development and validation. The results showed that the models have different accuracies in different climates and the MLP model performed superior to the other models in predicting monthly Ep at most stations using local input combinations (for example, the MAE (mean absolute errors), RMSE (root mean square errors), and determination coefficient (R2) are 0.314 mm/day, 0.405 mm/day and 0.988, respectively for HEB station), while GRNN model performed better in Tibetan Plateau (MAE, RMSE and R2 are 0.459 mm/day, 0.592 mm/day and 0.932, respectively). The accuracies of above models ranked as: MLP, GRNN, LSSVM, FG, ANFIS-GP, MARS and MLR. The overall results indicated that the soft computing techniques generally performed better than the regression methods, but MLR and SS models can be more preferred at some climatic zones instead of complex nonlinear models, for example, the BJ (Beijing), CQ (Chongqing) and HK (Haikou) stations. Therefore, it can be concluded that Ep could be successfully predicted using above models in hydrological modeling studies.

Classification of emotional states from electrocardiogram signals: a non-linear approach based on hurst

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Identifying the emotional state is helpful in applications involving patients with autism and other intellectual disabilities; computer-based training, human computer interaction etc. Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, being an activity of the autonomous nervous system (ANS), reflect the underlying true emotional state of a person. However, the performance of various methods developed so far lacks accuracy, and more robust methods need to be developed to identify the emotional pattern associated with ECG signals. Methods Emotional ECG data was obtained from sixty participants by inducing the six basic emotional states (happiness, sadness, fear, disgust, surprise and neutral) using audio-visual stimuli. The non-linear feature ‘Hurst’ was computed using Rescaled Range Statistics (RRS) and Finite Variance Scaling (FVS) methods. New Hurst features were proposed by combining the existing RRS and FVS methods with Higher Order Statistics (HOS). The features were then classified using four classifiers – Bayesian Classifier, Regression Tree, K- nearest neighbor and Fuzzy K-nearest neighbor. Seventy percent of the features were used for training and thirty percent for testing the algorithm. Results Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) conveyed that Hurst and the proposed features were statistically significant (p < 0.001). Hurst computed using RRS and FVS methods showed similar classification accuracy. The features obtained by combining FVS and HOS performed better with a maximum accuracy of 92.87% and 76.45% for classifying the six emotional states using random and subject independent validation respectively. Conclusions The results indicate that the combination of non-linear analysis and HOS tend to capture the finer emotional changes that can be seen in healthy ECG data. This work can be further fine tuned to develop a real time system. PMID:23680041

Comparison of Sub-Pixel Classification Approaches for Crop-Specific Mapping

EPA Science Inventory

This paper examined two non-linear models, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) regression and Regression Tree (RT), for estimating sub-pixel crop proportions using time-series MODIS-NDVI data. The sub-pixel proportions were estimated for three major crop types including corn, soybean, a...

Optimizing Support Vector Machine Parameters with Genetic Algorithm for Credit Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manurung, Jonson; Mawengkang, Herman; Zamzami, Elviawaty

2017-12-01

Support vector machine (SVM) is a popular classification method known to have strong generalization capabilities. SVM can solve the problem of classification and linear regression or nonlinear kernel which can be a learning algorithm for the ability of classification and regression. However, SVM also has a weakness that is difficult to determine the optimal parameter value. SVM calculates the best linear separator on the input feature space according to the training data. To classify data which are non-linearly separable, SVM uses kernel tricks to transform the data into a linearly separable data on a higher dimension feature space. The kernel trick using various kinds of kernel functions, such as : linear kernel, polynomial, radial base function (RBF) and sigmoid. Each function has parameters which affect the accuracy of SVM classification. To solve the problem genetic algorithms are proposed to be applied as the optimal parameter value search algorithm thus increasing the best classification accuracy on SVM. Data taken from UCI repository of machine learning database: Australian Credit Approval. The results show that the combination of SVM and genetic algorithms is effective in improving classification accuracy. Genetic algorithms has been shown to be effective in systematically finding optimal kernel parameters for SVM, instead of randomly selected kernel parameters. The best accuracy for data has been upgraded from kernel Linear: 85.12%, polynomial: 81.76%, RBF: 77.22% Sigmoid: 78.70%. However, for bigger data sizes, this method is not practical because it takes a lot of time.

Prediction of ozone concentration in tropospheric levels using artificial neural networks and support vector machine at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, A. S.; Paredes, M. L. L.; de Oliveira, G. C. G.; Corrêa, S. M.

2014-12-01

It is well known that air quality is a complex function of emissions, meteorology and topography, and statistical tools provide a sound framework for relating these variables. The observed data were contents of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), scalar wind speed (SWS), global solar radiation (GSR), temperature (TEM), moisture content in the air (HUM), collected by a mobile automatic monitoring station at Rio de Janeiro City in two places of the metropolitan area during 2011 and 2012. The aims of this study were: (1) to analyze the behavior of the variables, using the method of PCA for exploratory data analysis; (2) to propose forecasts of O3 levels from primary pollutants and meteorological factors, using nonlinear regression methods like ANN and SVM, from primary pollutants and meteorological factors. The PCA technique showed that for first dataset, variables NO, NOx and SWS have a greater impact on the concentration of O3 and the other data set had the TEM and GSR as the most influential variables. The obtained results from the nonlinear regression techniques ANN and SVM were remarkably closely and acceptable to one dataset presenting coefficient of determination for validation respectively 0.9122 and 0.9152, and root mean square error of 7.66 and 7.85, respectively. For these datasets, the PCA, SVM and ANN had demonstrated their robustness as useful tools for evaluation, and forecast scenarios for air quality.

Sensitivity to gaze-contingent contrast increments in naturalistic movies: An exploratory report and model comparison

PubMed Central

Wallis, Thomas S. A.; Dorr, Michael; Bex, Peter J.

2015-01-01

Sensitivity to luminance contrast is a prerequisite for all but the simplest visual systems. To examine contrast increment detection performance in a way that approximates the natural environmental input of the human visual system, we presented contrast increments gaze-contingently within naturalistic video freely viewed by observers. A band-limited contrast increment was applied to a local region of the video relative to the observer's current gaze point, and the observer made a forced-choice response to the location of the target (≈25,000 trials across five observers). We present exploratory analyses showing that performance improved as a function of the magnitude of the increment and depended on the direction of eye movements relative to the target location, the timing of eye movements relative to target presentation, and the spatiotemporal image structure at the target location. Contrast discrimination performance can be modeled by assuming that the underlying contrast response is an accelerating nonlinearity (arising from a nonlinear transducer or gain control). We implemented one such model and examined the posterior over model parameters, estimated using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The parameters were poorly constrained by our data; parameters constrained using strong priors taken from previous research showed poor cross-validated prediction performance. Atheoretical logistic regression models were better constrained and provided similar prediction performance to the nonlinear transducer model. Finally, we explored the properties of an extended logistic regression that incorporates both eye movement and image content features. Models of contrast transduction may be better constrained by incorporating data from both artificial and natural contrast perception settings. PMID:26057546

Physical activity volume in relation to risk of atrial fibrillation. A non-linear meta-regression analysis.

PubMed

Ricci, Cristian; Gervasi, Federico; Gaeta, Maddalena; Smuts, Cornelius M; Schutte, Aletta E; Leitzmann, Michael F

2018-05-01

Background Light physical activity is known to reduce atrial fibrillation risk, whereas moderate to vigorous physical activity may result in an increased risk. However, the question of what volume of physical activity can be considered beneficial remains poorly understood. The scope of the present work was to examine the relation between physical activity volume and atrial fibrillation risk. Design A comprehensive systematic review was performed following the PRISMA guidelines. Methods A non-linear meta-regression considering the amount of energy spent in physical activity was carried out. The first derivative of the non-linear relation between physical activity and atrial fibrillation risk was evaluated to determine the volume of physical activity that carried the minimum atrial fibrillation risk. Results The dose-response analysis of the relation between physical activity and atrial fibrillation risk showed that physical activity at volumes of 5-20 metabolic equivalents per week (MET-h/week) was associated with significant reduction in atrial fibrillation risk (relative risk for 19 MET-h/week = 0.92 (0.87, 0.98). By comparison, physical activity volumes exceeding 20 MET-h/week were unrelated to atrial fibrillation risk (relative risk for 21 MET-h/week = 0.95 (0.88, 1.02). Conclusion These data show a J-shaped relation between physical activity volume and atrial fibrillation risk. Physical activity at volumes of up to 20 MET-h/week is associated with reduced atrial fibrillation risk, whereas volumes exceeding 20 MET-h/week show no relation with risk.

Kinetic analysis of non-isothermal solid-state reactions: multi-stage modeling without assumptions in the reaction mechanism.

PubMed

Pomerantsev, Alexey L; Kutsenova, Alla V; Rodionova, Oxana Ye

2017-02-01

A novel non-linear regression method for modeling non-isothermal thermogravimetric data is proposed. Experiments for several heating rates are analyzed simultaneously. The method is applicable to complex multi-stage processes when the number of stages is unknown. Prior knowledge of the type of kinetics is not required. The main idea is a consequent estimation of parameters when the overall model is successively changed from one level of modeling to another. At the first level, the Avrami-Erofeev functions are used. At the second level, the Sestak-Berggren functions are employed with the goal to broaden the overall model. The method is tested using both simulated and real-world data. A comparison of the proposed method with a recently published 'model-free' deconvolution method is presented.

3-DOF Force-Sensing Motorized Micro-Forceps for Robot-Assisted Vitreoretinal Surgery

PubMed Central

Gonenc, Berk; Chamani, Alireza; Handa, James; Gehlbach, Peter; Taylor, Russell H.; Iordachita, Iulian

2017-01-01

In vitreoretinal surgery, membrane peeling is a prototypical task where a layer of fibrous tissue is delaminated off the retina with a micro-forceps by applying very fine forces that are mostly imperceptible to the surgeon. Previously we developed sensitized ophthalmic surgery tools based on fiber Bragg grating (FBG) strain sensors, which were shown to precisely detect forces at the instrument’s tip in two degrees of freedom perpendicular to the tool axis. This paper presents a new design that employs an additional sensor to capture also the tensile force along the tool axis. The grasping functionality is provided via a compact motorized unit. To compute forces, we investigate two distinct fitting methods: a linear regression and a nonlinear fitting based on second-order Bernstein polynomials. We carry out experiments to test the repeatability of sensor outputs, calibrate the sensor and validate its performance. Results demonstrate sensor wavelength repeatability within 2 pm. Although the linear method provides sufficient accuracy in measuring transverse forces, in the axial direction it produces a root mean square (rms) error over 3 mN even for a confined magnitude and direction of forces. On the other hand, the nonlinear method provides a more consistent and accurate measurement of both the transverse and axial forces for the entire force range (0–25 mN). Validation including random samples shows that our tool with the nonlinear force computation method can predict 3-D forces with an rms error under 0.15 mN in the transverse plane and within 2 mN accuracy in the axial direction. PMID:28736508

Time-Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Biological Signals with Sparse Linear Regression Based Fourier Linear Combiner.

PubMed

Wang, Yubo; Veluvolu, Kalyana C

2017-06-14

It is often difficult to analyze biological signals because of their nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. This necessitates the usage of time-frequency decomposition methods for analyzing the subtle changes in these signals that are often connected to an underlying phenomena. This paper presents a new approach to analyze the time-varying characteristics of such signals by employing a simple truncated Fourier series model, namely the band-limited multiple Fourier linear combiner (BMFLC). In contrast to the earlier designs, we first identified the sparsity imposed on the signal model in order to reformulate the model to a sparse linear regression model. The coefficients of the proposed model are then estimated by a convex optimization algorithm. The performance of the proposed method was analyzed with benchmark test signals. An energy ratio metric is employed to quantify the spectral performance and results show that the proposed method Sparse-BMFLC has high mean energy (0.9976) ratio and outperforms existing methods such as short-time Fourier transfrom (STFT), continuous Wavelet transform (CWT) and BMFLC Kalman Smoother. Furthermore, the proposed method provides an overall 6.22% in reconstruction error.

Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations in Xi'an City Using a Generalized Additive Model with Multi-Source Monitoring Data

PubMed Central

Song, Yong-Ze; Yang, Hong-Lei; Peng, Jun-Huan; Song, Yi-Rong; Sun, Qian; Li, Yuan

2015-01-01

Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm (PM2.5) represents a severe environmental problem and is of negative impact on human health. Xi'an City, with a population of 6.5 million, is among the highest concentrations of PM2.5 in China. In 2013, in total, there were 191 days in Xi’an City on which PM2.5 concentrations were greater than 100 μg/m3. Recently, a few studies have explored the potential causes of high PM2.5 concentration using remote sensing data such as the MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product. Linear regression is a commonly used method to find statistical relationships among PM2.5 concentrations and other pollutants, including CO, NO2, SO2, and O3, which can be indicative of emission sources. The relationships of these variables, however, are usually complicated and non-linear. Therefore, a generalized additive model (GAM) is used to estimate the statistical relationships between potential variables and PM2.5 concentrations. This model contains linear functions of SO2 and CO, univariate smoothing non-linear functions of NO2, O3, AOT and temperature, and bivariate smoothing non-linear functions of location and wind variables. The model can explain 69.50% of PM2.5 concentrations, with R2 = 0.691, which improves the result of a stepwise linear regression (R2 = 0.582) by 18.73%. The two most significant variables, CO concentration and AOT, represent 20.65% and 19.54% of the deviance, respectively, while the three other gas-phase concentrations, SO2, NO2, and O3 account for 10.88% of the total deviance. These results show that in Xi'an City, the traffic and other industrial emissions are the primary source of PM2.5. Temperature, location, and wind variables also non-linearly related with PM2.5. PMID:26540446

Data mining: Potential applications in research on nutrition and health.

PubMed

Batterham, Marijka; Neale, Elizabeth; Martin, Allison; Tapsell, Linda

2017-02-01

Data mining enables further insights from nutrition-related research, but caution is required. The aim of this analysis was to demonstrate and compare the utility of data mining methods in classifying a categorical outcome derived from a nutrition-related intervention. Baseline data (23 variables, 8 categorical) on participants (n = 295) in an intervention trial were used to classify participants in terms of meeting the criteria of achieving 10 000 steps per day. Results from classification and regression trees (CARTs), random forests, adaptive boosting, logistic regression, support vector machines and neural networks were compared using area under the curve (AUC) and error assessments. The CART produced the best model when considering the AUC (0.703), overall error (18%) and within class error (28%). Logistic regression also performed reasonably well compared to the other models (AUC 0.675, overall error 23%, within class error 36%). All the methods gave different rankings of variables' importance. CART found that body fat, quality of life using the SF-12 Physical Component Summary (PCS) and the cholesterol: HDL ratio were the most important predictors of meeting the 10 000 steps criteria, while logistic regression showed the SF-12PCS, glucose levels and level of education to be the most significant predictors (P ≤ 0.01). Differing outcomes suggest caution is required with a single data mining method, particularly in a dataset with nonlinear relationships and outliers and when exploring relationships that were not the primary outcomes of the research. © 2017 Dietitians Association of Australia.

Two-step superresolution approach for surveillance face image through radial basis function-partial least squares regression and locality-induced sparse representation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Junjun; Hu, Ruimin; Han, Zhen; Wang, Zhongyuan; Chen, Jun

2013-10-01

Face superresolution (SR), or face hallucination, refers to the technique of generating a high-resolution (HR) face image from a low-resolution (LR) one with the help of a set of training examples. It aims at transcending the limitations of electronic imaging systems. Applications of face SR include video surveillance, in which the individual of interest is often far from cameras. A two-step method is proposed to infer a high-quality and HR face image from a low-quality and LR observation. First, we establish the nonlinear relationship between LR face images and HR ones, according to radial basis function and partial least squares (RBF-PLS) regression, to transform the LR face into the global face space. Then, a locality-induced sparse representation (LiSR) approach is presented to enhance the local facial details once all the global faces for each LR training face are constructed. A comparison of some state-of-the-art SR methods shows the superiority of the proposed two-step approach, RBF-PLS global face regression followed by LiSR-based local patch reconstruction. Experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness under both simulation conditions and some real conditions.

A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets.

PubMed

Chen, Jie-Hao; Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

2017-01-01

In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%.

A New Approach for Mobile Advertising Click-Through Rate Estimation Based on Deep Belief Nets

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zi-Qian; Shi, Ji-Yun; Zhao, Chong

2017-01-01

In recent years, with the rapid development of mobile Internet and its business applications, mobile advertising Click-Through Rate (CTR) estimation has become a hot research direction in the field of computational advertising, which is used to achieve accurate advertisement delivery for the best benefits in the three-side game between media, advertisers, and audiences. Current research on the estimation of CTR mainly uses the methods and models of machine learning, such as linear model or recommendation algorithms. However, most of these methods are insufficient to extract the data features and cannot reflect the nonlinear relationship between different features. In order to solve these problems, we propose a new model based on Deep Belief Nets to predict the CTR of mobile advertising, which combines together the powerful data representation and feature extraction capability of Deep Belief Nets, with the advantage of simplicity of traditional Logistic Regression models. Based on the training dataset with the information of over 40 million mobile advertisements during a period of 10 days, our experiments show that our new model has better estimation accuracy than the classic Logistic Regression (LR) model by 5.57% and Support Vector Regression (SVR) model by 5.80%. PMID:29209363

Application of principal component regression and artificial neural network in FT-NIR soluble solids content determination of intact pear fruit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Yibin; Liu, Yande; Fu, Xiaping; Lu, Huishan

2005-11-01

The artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been used successfully in applications such as pattern recognition, image processing, automation and control. However, majority of today's applications of ANNs is back-propagate feed-forward ANN (BP-ANN). In this paper, back-propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) were applied for modeling soluble solid content (SSC) of intact pear from their Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) spectra. One hundred and sixty-four pear samples were used to build the calibration models and evaluate the models predictive ability. The results are compared to the classical calibration approaches, i.e. principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS) and non-linear PLS (NPLS). The effects of the optimal methods of training parameters on the prediction model were also investigated. BP-ANN combine with principle component regression (PCR) resulted always better than the classical PCR, PLS and Weight-PLS methods, from the point of view of the predictive ability. Based on the results, it can be concluded that FT-NIR spectroscopy and BP-ANN models can be properly employed for rapid and nondestructive determination of fruit internal quality.

Spectral Reconstruction Based on Svm for Cross Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, H.; Ma, Y.; Liu, W.; He, H.

2017-05-01

Chinese HY-1C/1D satellites will use a 5nm/10nm-resolutional visible-near infrared(VNIR) hyperspectral sensor with the solar calibrator to cross-calibrate with other sensors. The hyperspectral radiance data are composed of average radiance in the sensor's passbands and bear a spectral smoothing effect, a transform from the hyperspectral radiance data to the 1-nm-resolution apparent spectral radiance by spectral reconstruction need to be implemented. In order to solve the problem of noise cumulation and deterioration after several times of iteration by the iterative algorithm, a novel regression method based on SVM is proposed, which can approach arbitrary complex non-linear relationship closely and provide with better generalization capability by learning. In the opinion of system, the relationship between the apparent radiance and equivalent radiance is nonlinear mapping introduced by spectral response function(SRF), SVM transform the low-dimensional non-linear question into high-dimensional linear question though kernel function, obtaining global optimal solution by virtue of quadratic form. The experiment is performed using 6S-simulated spectrums considering the SRF and SNR of the hyperspectral sensor, measured reflectance spectrums of water body and different atmosphere conditions. The contrastive result shows: firstly, the proposed method is with more reconstructed accuracy especially to the high-frequency signal; secondly, while the spectral resolution of the hyperspectral sensor reduces, the proposed method performs better than the iterative method; finally, the root mean square relative error(RMSRE) which is used to evaluate the difference of the reconstructed spectrum and the real spectrum over the whole spectral range is calculated, it decreses by one time at least by proposed method.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Kinetic modelling for zinc (II) ions biosorption onto Luffa cylindrica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oboh, I., E-mail: innocentoboh@uniuyo.edu.ng; Aluyor, E.; Audu, T.

The biosorption of Zinc (II) ions onto a biomaterial - Luffa cylindrica has been studied. This biomaterial was characterized by elemental analysis, surface area, pore size distribution, scanning electron microscopy, and the biomaterial before and after sorption, was characterized by Fourier Transform Infra Red (FTIR) spectrometer. The kinetic nonlinear models fitted were Pseudo-first order, Pseudo-second order and Intra-particle diffusion. A comparison of non-linear regression method in selecting the kinetic model was made. Four error functions, namely coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), average relative error (ARE), and sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ), were used tomore » predict the parameters of the kinetic models. The strength of this study is that a biomaterial with wide distribution particularly in the tropical world and which occurs as waste material could be put into effective utilization as a biosorbent to address a crucial environmental problem.« less

Kinetic modelling for zinc (II) ions biosorption onto Luffa cylindrica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oboh, I.; Aluyor, E.; Audu, T.

2015-03-01

The biosorption of Zinc (II) ions onto a biomaterial - Luffa cylindrica has been studied. This biomaterial was characterized by elemental analysis, surface area, pore size distribution, scanning electron microscopy, and the biomaterial before and after sorption, was characterized by Fourier Transform Infra Red (FTIR) spectrometer. The kinetic nonlinear models fitted were Pseudo-first order, Pseudo-second order and Intra-particle diffusion. A comparison of non-linear regression method in selecting the kinetic model was made. Four error functions, namely coefficient of determination (R2), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), average relative error (ARE), and sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ), were used to predict the parameters of the kinetic models. The strength of this study is that a biomaterial with wide distribution particularly in the tropical world and which occurs as waste material could be put into effective utilization as a biosorbent to address a crucial environmental problem.

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Biochemical Parameters of Tea (camellia Sinensis (L.)) Using Hyperspectral Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, M.; Skidmore, A. K.; Schlerf, M.; Liu, Y.; Wang, T.

2012-07-01

Tea (Camellia Sinensis (L.)) is an important economic crop and the market price of tea depends largely on its quality. This research aims to explore the potential of hyperspectral remote sensing on predicting the concentration of biochemical components, namely total tea polyphenols, as indicators of tea quality at canopy scale. Experiments were carried out for tea plants growing in the field and greenhouse. Partial least squares regression (PLSR), which has proven to be the one of the most successful empirical approach, was performed to establish the relationship between reflectance and biochemical concentration across six tea varieties in the field. Moreover, a novel integrated approach involving successive projections algorithms as band selection method and neural networks was developed and applied to detect the concentration of total tea polyphenols for one tea variety, in order to explore and model complex nonlinearity relationships between independent (wavebands) and dependent (biochemicals) variables. The good prediction accuracies (r2 > 0.8 and relative RMSEP < 10 %) achieved for tea plants using both linear (partial lease squares regress) and nonlinear (artificial neural networks) modelling approaches in this study demonstrates the feasibility of using airborne and spaceborne sensors to cover wide areas of tea plantation for in situ monitoring of tea quality cheaply and rapidly.

Characterization of acid functional groups of carbon dots by nonlinear regression data fitting of potentiometric titration curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Larissa A.; de Castro, Arthur H.; de Mendonça, Fernanda G.; de Mesquita, João P.

2016-05-01

The oxygenated functional groups present on the surface of carbon dots with an average size of 2.7 ± 0.5 nm were characterized by a variety of techniques. In particular, we discussed the fit data of potentiometric titration curves using a nonlinear regression method based on the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The results obtained by statistical treatment of the titration curve data showed that the best fit was obtained considering the presence of five Brønsted-Lowry acids on the surface of the carbon dots with constant ionization characteristics of carboxylic acids, cyclic ester, phenolic and pyrone-like groups. The total number of oxygenated acid groups obtained was 5 mmol g-1, with approximately 65% (∼2.9 mmol g-1) originating from groups with pKa < 6. The methodology showed good reproducibility and stability with standard deviations below 5%. The nature of the groups was independent of small variations in experimental conditions, i.e. the mass of carbon dots titrated and initial concentration of HCl solution. Finally, we believe that the methodology used here, together with other characterization techniques, is a simple, fast and powerful tool to characterize the complex acid-base properties of these so interesting and intriguing nanoparticles.

Efficient design of gain-flattened multi-pump Raman fiber amplifiers using least squares support vector regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jing; Qiu, Xiaojie; Yin, Cunyi; Jiang, Hao

2018-02-01

An efficient method to design the broadband gain-flattened Raman fiber amplifier with multiple pumps is proposed based on least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR). A multi-input multi-output LS-SVR model is introduced to replace the complicated solving process of the nonlinear coupled Raman amplification equation. The proposed approach contains two stages: offline training stage and online optimization stage. During the offline stage, the LS-SVR model is trained. Owing to the good generalization capability of LS-SVR, the net gain spectrum can be directly and accurately obtained when inputting any combination of the pump wavelength and power to the well-trained model. During the online stage, we incorporate the LS-SVR model into the particle swarm optimization algorithm to find the optimal pump configuration. The design results demonstrate that the proposed method greatly shortens the computation time and enhances the efficiency of the pump parameter optimization for Raman fiber amplifier design.

The problem of natural funnel asymmetries: a simulation analysis of meta-analysis in macroeconomics.

PubMed

Callot, Laurent; Paldam, Martin

2011-06-01

Effect sizes in macroeconomic are estimated by regressions on data published by statistical agencies. Funnel plots are a representation of the distribution of the resulting regression coefficients. They are normally much wider than predicted by the t-ratio of the coefficients and often asymmetric. The standard method of meta-analysts in economics assumes that the asymmetries are because of publication bias causing censoring and adjusts the average accordingly. The paper shows that some funnel asymmetries may be 'natural' so that they occur without censoring. We investigate such asymmetries by simulating funnels by pairs of data generating processes (DGPs) and estimating models (EMs), in which the EM has the problem that it disregards a property of the DGP. The problems are data dependency, structural breaks, non-normal residuals, non-linearity, and omitted variables. We show that some of these problems generate funnel asymmetries. When they do, the standard method often fails. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Quantitative Analysis of Heavy Metals in Water with LIBS Based on Signal-to-Background Ratio].

PubMed

Hu, Li; Zhao, Nan-jing; Liu, Wen-qing; Fang, Li; Zhang, Da-hai; Wang, Yin; Meng, De Shuo; Yu, Yang; Ma, Ming-jun

2015-07-01

There are many influence factors in the precision and accuracy of the quantitative analysis with LIBS technology. According to approximately the same characteristics trend of background spectrum and characteristic spectrum along with the change of temperature through in-depth analysis, signal-to-background ratio (S/B) measurement and regression analysis could compensate the spectral line intensity changes caused by system parameters such as laser power, spectral efficiency of receiving. Because the measurement dates were limited and nonlinear, we used support vector machine (SVM) for regression algorithm. The experimental results showed that the method could improve the stability and the accuracy of quantitative analysis of LIBS, and the relative standard deviation and average relative error of test set respectively were 4.7% and 9.5%. Data fitting method based on signal-to-background ratio(S/B) is Less susceptible to matrix elements and background spectrum etc, and provides data processing reference for real-time online LIBS quantitative analysis technology.

Characterization of surface modified carbon fibers and their epoxy composites by small angle x-ray scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stoll, B.; Fellers, J.F.; Lin, J.S.

1986-01-01

This paper correlated the interlaminar shear strength of 7 different carbon fiber/epoxy composites with structural characteristics determined by Small Angle X-ray Scattering (SAXS) measurements. The carbon fibers were all of the same type but had different surface treatments. The SAXS patterns of the fibers and of the composites showed a highly nonlinear Guinier region which could not be approximated by traditional linear regression. A new approach to the Guinier approximation was developed to treat this nonlinear curve using a polynomial of second order. The radius of gyration (RG) of the fibers, as determined by this new method, correlated clearly withmore » both the extent of the surface treatment and the interlaminar shear strength of the composite. Also the difference in scattering between a dry fiber and a glycerine soaked fiber provides a way to characterize the changes obtained by surface treatments. These methods provide new ways to estimate the efficiency of a surface treatment and its effect on the interlaminar shear strength by analyzing the SAXS patterns of the fibers.« less

Approximate N-Player Nonzero-Sum Game Solution for an Uncertain Continuous Nonlinear System.

PubMed

Johnson, Marcus; Kamalapurkar, Rushikesh; Bhasin, Shubhendu; Dixon, Warren E

2015-08-01

An approximate online equilibrium solution is developed for an N -player nonzero-sum game subject to continuous-time nonlinear unknown dynamics and an infinite horizon quadratic cost. A novel actor-critic-identifier structure is used, wherein a robust dynamic neural network is used to asymptotically identify the uncertain system with additive disturbances, and a set of critic and actor NNs are used to approximate the value functions and equilibrium policies, respectively. The weight update laws for the actor neural networks (NNs) are generated using a gradient-descent method, and the critic NNs are generated by least square regression, which are both based on the modified Bellman error that is independent of the system dynamics. A Lyapunov-based stability analysis shows that uniformly ultimately bounded tracking is achieved, and a convergence analysis demonstrates that the approximate control policies converge to a neighborhood of the optimal solutions. The actor, critic, and identifier structures are implemented in real time continuously and simultaneously. Simulations on two and three player games illustrate the performance of the developed method.

Discovering governing equations from data by sparse identification of nonlinear dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Brunton, Steven L.; Proctor, Joshua L.; Kutz, J. Nathan

2016-01-01

Extracting governing equations from data is a central challenge in many diverse areas of science and engineering. Data are abundant whereas models often remain elusive, as in climate science, neuroscience, ecology, finance, and epidemiology, to name only a few examples. In this work, we combine sparsity-promoting techniques and machine learning with nonlinear dynamical systems to discover governing equations from noisy measurement data. The only assumption about the structure of the model is that there are only a few important terms that govern the dynamics, so that the equations are sparse in the space of possible functions; this assumption holds for many physical systems in an appropriate basis. In particular, we use sparse regression to determine the fewest terms in the dynamic governing equations required to accurately represent the data. This results in parsimonious models that balance accuracy with model complexity to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate the algorithm on a wide range of problems, from simple canonical systems, including linear and nonlinear oscillators and the chaotic Lorenz system, to the fluid vortex shedding behind an obstacle. The fluid example illustrates the ability of this method to discover the underlying dynamics of a system that took experts in the community nearly 30 years to resolve. We also show that this method generalizes to parameterized systems and systems that are time-varying or have external forcing. PMID:27035946

Discovering governing equations from data by sparse identification of nonlinear dynamical systems.

PubMed

Brunton, Steven L; Proctor, Joshua L; Kutz, J Nathan

2016-04-12

Extracting governing equations from data is a central challenge in many diverse areas of science and engineering. Data are abundant whereas models often remain elusive, as in climate science, neuroscience, ecology, finance, and epidemiology, to name only a few examples. In this work, we combine sparsity-promoting techniques and machine learning with nonlinear dynamical systems to discover governing equations from noisy measurement data. The only assumption about the structure of the model is that there are only a few important terms that govern the dynamics, so that the equations are sparse in the space of possible functions; this assumption holds for many physical systems in an appropriate basis. In particular, we use sparse regression to determine the fewest terms in the dynamic governing equations required to accurately represent the data. This results in parsimonious models that balance accuracy with model complexity to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate the algorithm on a wide range of problems, from simple canonical systems, including linear and nonlinear oscillators and the chaotic Lorenz system, to the fluid vortex shedding behind an obstacle. The fluid example illustrates the ability of this method to discover the underlying dynamics of a system that took experts in the community nearly 30 years to resolve. We also show that this method generalizes to parameterized systems and systems that are time-varying or have external forcing.

Comparison of Random Forest and Parametric Imputation Models for Imputing Missing Data Using MICE: A CALIBER Study

PubMed Central

Shah, Anoop D.; Bartlett, Jonathan W.; Carpenter, James; Nicholas, Owen; Hemingway, Harry

2014-01-01

Multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE) is commonly used for imputing missing data in epidemiologic research. The “true” imputation model may contain nonlinearities which are not included in default imputation models. Random forest imputation is a machine learning technique which can accommodate nonlinearities and interactions and does not require a particular regression model to be specified. We compared parametric MICE with a random forest-based MICE algorithm in 2 simulation studies. The first study used 1,000 random samples of 2,000 persons drawn from the 10,128 stable angina patients in the CALIBER database (Cardiovascular Disease Research using Linked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records; 2001–2010) with complete data on all covariates. Variables were artificially made “missing at random,” and the bias and efficiency of parameter estimates obtained using different imputation methods were compared. Both MICE methods produced unbiased estimates of (log) hazard ratios, but random forest was more efficient and produced narrower confidence intervals. The second study used simulated data in which the partially observed variable depended on the fully observed variables in a nonlinear way. Parameter estimates were less biased using random forest MICE, and confidence interval coverage was better. This suggests that random forest imputation may be useful for imputing complex epidemiologic data sets in which some patients have missing data. PMID:24589914

Comparison of random forest and parametric imputation models for imputing missing data using MICE: a CALIBER study.

PubMed

Shah, Anoop D; Bartlett, Jonathan W; Carpenter, James; Nicholas, Owen; Hemingway, Harry

2014-03-15

Multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE) is commonly used for imputing missing data in epidemiologic research. The "true" imputation model may contain nonlinearities which are not included in default imputation models. Random forest imputation is a machine learning technique which can accommodate nonlinearities and interactions and does not require a particular regression model to be specified. We compared parametric MICE with a random forest-based MICE algorithm in 2 simulation studies. The first study used 1,000 random samples of 2,000 persons drawn from the 10,128 stable angina patients in the CALIBER database (Cardiovascular Disease Research using Linked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records; 2001-2010) with complete data on all covariates. Variables were artificially made "missing at random," and the bias and efficiency of parameter estimates obtained using different imputation methods were compared. Both MICE methods produced unbiased estimates of (log) hazard ratios, but random forest was more efficient and produced narrower confidence intervals. The second study used simulated data in which the partially observed variable depended on the fully observed variables in a nonlinear way. Parameter estimates were less biased using random forest MICE, and confidence interval coverage was better. This suggests that random forest imputation may be useful for imputing complex epidemiologic data sets in which some patients have missing data.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 2. Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1983-01-01

This paper investigates factors influencing the degree of improvement in estimates of parameters of a nonlinear regression groundwater flow model by incorporating prior information of unknown reliability. Consideration of expected behavior of the regression solutions and results of a hypothetical modeling problem lead to several general conclusions. First, if the parameters are properly scaled, linearized expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in parameter estimates of a nonlinear model will often behave very nearly as if the model were linear. Second, by using prior information, the MSE in properly scaled parameters can be reduced greatly over the MSE of ordinary least squares estimates of parameters. Third, plots of estimated MSE and the estimated standard deviation of MSE versus an auxiliary parameter (the ridge parameter) specifying the degree of influence of the prior information on regression results can help determine the potential for improvement of parameter estimates. Fourth, proposed criteria can be used to make appropriate choices for the ridge parameter and another parameter expressing degree of overall bias in the prior information. Results of a case study of Truckee Meadows, Reno-Sparks area, Washoe County, Nevada, conform closely to the results of the hypothetical problem. In the Truckee Meadows case, incorporation of prior information did not greatly change the parameter estimates from those obtained by ordinary least squares. However, the analysis showed that both sets of estimates are more reliable than suggested by the standard errors from ordinary least squares.

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2015-06-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neural networks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how these types of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere were found to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies, although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especially for JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone data sets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. The results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussed in terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer-Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewed together with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour.

Handling nonnormality and variance heterogeneity for quantitative sublethal toxicity tests.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian; Van der Vliet, Leana

2009-09-01

The advantages of using regression-based techniques to derive endpoints from environmental toxicity data are clear, and slowly, this superior analytical technique is gaining acceptance. As use of regression-based analysis becomes more widespread, some of the associated nuances and potential problems come into sharper focus. Looking at data sets that cover a broad spectrum of standard test species, we noticed that some model fits to data failed to meet two key assumptions-variance homogeneity and normality-that are necessary for correct statistical analysis via regression-based techniques. Failure to meet these assumptions often is caused by reduced variance at the concentrations showing severe adverse effects. Although commonly used with linear regression analysis, transformation of the response variable only is not appropriate when fitting data using nonlinear regression techniques. Through analysis of sample data sets, including Lemna minor, Eisenia andrei (terrestrial earthworm), and algae, we show that both the so-called Box-Cox transformation and use of the Poisson distribution can help to correct variance heterogeneity and nonnormality and so allow nonlinear regression analysis to be implemented. Both the Box-Cox transformation and the Poisson distribution can be readily implemented into existing protocols for statistical analysis. By correcting for nonnormality and variance heterogeneity, these two statistical tools can be used to encourage the transition to regression-based analysis and the depreciation of less-desirable and less-flexible analytical techniques, such as linear interpolation.

Pointwise influence matrices for functional-response regression.

PubMed

Reiss, Philip T; Huang, Lei; Wu, Pei-Shien; Chen, Huaihou; Colcombe, Stan

2017-12-01

We extend the notion of an influence or hat matrix to regression with functional responses and scalar predictors. For responses depending linearly on a set of predictors, our definition is shown to reduce to the conventional influence matrix for linear models. The pointwise degrees of freedom, the trace of the pointwise influence matrix, are shown to have an adaptivity property that motivates a two-step bivariate smoother for modeling nonlinear dependence on a single predictor. This procedure adapts to varying complexity of the nonlinear model at different locations along the function, and thereby achieves better performance than competing tensor product smoothers in an analysis of the development of white matter microstructure in the brain. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

An Application to the Prediction of LOD Change Based on General Regression Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X. H.; Wang, Q. J.; Zhu, J. J.; Zhang, H.

2011-07-01

Traditional prediction of the LOD (length of day) change was based on linear models, such as the least square model and the autoregressive technique, etc. Due to the complex non-linear features of the LOD variation, the performances of the linear model predictors are not fully satisfactory. This paper applies a non-linear neural network - general regression neural network (GRNN) model to forecast the LOD change, and the results are analyzed and compared with those obtained with the back propagation neural network and other models. The comparison shows that the performance of the GRNN model in the prediction of the LOD change is efficient and feasible.

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model. Methods Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model. Results The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range. Conclusion Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit. PMID:20003238

Understanding Child Stunting in India: A Comprehensive Analysis of Socio-Economic, Nutritional and Environmental Determinants Using Additive Quantile Regression

PubMed Central

Fenske, Nora; Burns, Jacob; Hothorn, Torsten; Rehfuess, Eva A.

2013-01-01

Background Most attempts to address undernutrition, responsible for one third of global child deaths, have fallen behind expectations. This suggests that the assumptions underlying current modelling and intervention practices should be revisited. Objective We undertook a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of child stunting in India, and explored whether the established focus on linear effects of single risks is appropriate. Design Using cross-sectional data for children aged 0–24 months from the Indian National Family Health Survey for 2005/2006, we populated an evidence-based diagram of immediate, intermediate and underlying determinants of stunting. We modelled linear, non-linear, spatial and age-varying effects of these determinants using additive quantile regression for four quantiles of the Z-score of standardized height-for-age and logistic regression for stunting and severe stunting. Results At least one variable within each of eleven groups of determinants was significantly associated with height-for-age in the 35% Z-score quantile regression. The non-modifiable risk factors child age and sex, and the protective factors household wealth, maternal education and BMI showed the largest effects. Being a twin or multiple birth was associated with dramatically decreased height-for-age. Maternal age, maternal BMI, birth order and number of antenatal visits influenced child stunting in non-linear ways. Findings across the four quantile and two logistic regression models were largely comparable. Conclusions Our analysis confirms the multifactorial nature of child stunting. It emphasizes the need to pursue a systems-based approach and to consider non-linear effects, and suggests that differential effects across the height-for-age distribution do not play a major role. PMID:24223839

Understanding child stunting in India: a comprehensive analysis of socio-economic, nutritional and environmental determinants using additive quantile regression.

PubMed

Fenske, Nora; Burns, Jacob; Hothorn, Torsten; Rehfuess, Eva A

2013-01-01

Most attempts to address undernutrition, responsible for one third of global child deaths, have fallen behind expectations. This suggests that the assumptions underlying current modelling and intervention practices should be revisited. We undertook a comprehensive analysis of the determinants of child stunting in India, and explored whether the established focus on linear effects of single risks is appropriate. Using cross-sectional data for children aged 0-24 months from the Indian National Family Health Survey for 2005/2006, we populated an evidence-based diagram of immediate, intermediate and underlying determinants of stunting. We modelled linear, non-linear, spatial and age-varying effects of these determinants using additive quantile regression for four quantiles of the Z-score of standardized height-for-age and logistic regression for stunting and severe stunting. At least one variable within each of eleven groups of determinants was significantly associated with height-for-age in the 35% Z-score quantile regression. The non-modifiable risk factors child age and sex, and the protective factors household wealth, maternal education and BMI showed the largest effects. Being a twin or multiple birth was associated with dramatically decreased height-for-age. Maternal age, maternal BMI, birth order and number of antenatal visits influenced child stunting in non-linear ways. Findings across the four quantile and two logistic regression models were largely comparable. Our analysis confirms the multifactorial nature of child stunting. It emphasizes the need to pursue a systems-based approach and to consider non-linear effects, and suggests that differential effects across the height-for-age distribution do not play a major role.

Robust iterative method for nonlinear Helmholtz equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Lijun; Lu, Ya Yan

2017-08-01

A new iterative method is developed for solving the two-dimensional nonlinear Helmholtz equation which governs polarized light in media with the optical Kerr nonlinearity. In the strongly nonlinear regime, the nonlinear Helmholtz equation could have multiple solutions related to phenomena such as optical bistability and symmetry breaking. The new method exhibits a much more robust convergence behavior than existing iterative methods, such as frozen-nonlinearity iteration, Newton's method and damped Newton's method, and it can be used to find solutions when good initial guesses are unavailable. Numerical results are presented for the scattering of light by a nonlinear circular cylinder based on the exact nonlocal boundary condition and a pseudospectral method in the polar coordinate system.

Minimizing bias in biomass allometry: Model selection and log transformation of data

Treesearch

Joseph Mascaro; undefined undefined; Flint Hughes; Amanda Uowolo; Stefan A. Schnitzer

2011-01-01

Nonlinear regression is increasingly used to develop allometric equations for forest biomass estimation (i.e., as opposed to the raditional approach of log-transformation followed by linear regression). Most statistical software packages, however, assume additive errors by default, violating a key assumption of allometric theory and possibly producing spurious models....

Logarithmic Transformations in Regression: Do You Transform Back Correctly?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dambolena, Ismael G.; Eriksen, Steven E.; Kopcso, David P.

2009-01-01

The logarithmic transformation is often used in regression analysis for a variety of purposes such as the linearization of a nonlinear relationship between two or more variables. We have noticed that when this transformation is applied to the response variable, the computation of the point estimate of the conditional mean of the original response…

Multivariate meta-analysis for non-linear and other multi-parameter associations

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, B; Kenward, M G

2012-01-01

In this paper, we formalize the application of multivariate meta-analysis and meta-regression to synthesize estimates of multi-parameter associations obtained from different studies. This modelling approach extends the standard two-stage analysis used to combine results across different sub-groups or populations. The most straightforward application is for the meta-analysis of non-linear relationships, described for example by regression coefficients of splines or other functions, but the methodology easily generalizes to any setting where complex associations are described by multiple correlated parameters. The modelling framework of multivariate meta-analysis is implemented in the package mvmeta within the statistical environment R. As an illustrative example, we propose a two-stage analysis for investigating the non-linear exposure–response relationship between temperature and non-accidental mortality using time-series data from multiple cities. Multivariate meta-analysis represents a useful analytical tool for studying complex associations through a two-stage procedure. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22807043

Creep analysis of silicone for podiatry applications.

PubMed

Janeiro-Arocas, Julia; Tarrío-Saavedra, Javier; López-Beceiro, Jorge; Naya, Salvador; López-Canosa, Adrián; Heredia-García, Nicolás; Artiaga, Ramón

2016-10-01

This work shows an effective methodology to characterize the creep-recovery behavior of silicones before their application in podiatry. The aim is to characterize, model and compare the creep-recovery properties of different types of silicone used in podiatry orthotics. Creep-recovery phenomena of silicones used in podiatry orthotics is characterized by dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). Silicones provided by Herbitas are compared by observing their viscoelastic properties by Functional Data Analysis (FDA) and nonlinear regression. The relationship between strain and time is modeled by fixed and mixed effects nonlinear regression to compare easily and intuitively podiatry silicones. Functional ANOVA and Kohlrausch-Willians-Watts (KWW) model with fixed and mixed effects allows us to compare different silicones observing the values of fitting parameters and their physical meaning. The differences between silicones are related to the variations of breadth of creep-recovery time distribution and instantaneous deformation-permanent strain. Nevertheless, the mean creep-relaxation time is the same for all the studied silicones. Silicones used in palliative orthoses have higher instantaneous deformation-permanent strain and narrower creep-recovery distribution. The proposed methodology based on DMA, FDA and nonlinear regression is an useful tool to characterize and choose the proper silicone for each podiatry application according to their viscoelastic properties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Machine Learning Regression Algorithms for Operational Retrieval of Biophysical Parameters: Opportunities for Sentinel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrelst, Jochem; Rivera, J. P.; Alonso, L.; Guanter, L.; Moreno, J.

2012-04-01

ESA’s upcoming satellites Sentinel-2 (S2) and Sentinel-3 (S3) aim to ensure continuity for Landsat 5/7, SPOT- 5, SPOT-Vegetation and Envisat MERIS observations by providing superspectral images of high spatial and temporal resolution. S2 and S3 will deliver near real-time operational products with a high accuracy for land monitoring. This unprecedented data availability leads to an urgent need for developing robust and accurate retrieval methods. Machine learning regression algorithms could be powerful candidates for the estimation of biophysical parameters from satellite reflectance measurements because of their ability to perform adaptive, nonlinear data fitting. By using data from the ESA-led field campaign SPARC (Barrax, Spain), it was recently found [1] that Gaussian processes regression (GPR) outperformed competitive machine learning algorithms such as neural networks, support vector regression) and kernel ridge regression both in terms of accuracy and computational speed. For various Sentinel configurations (S2-10m, S2- 20m, S2-60m and S3-300m) three important biophysical parameters were estimated: leaf chlorophyll content (Chl), leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FVC). GPR was the only method that reached the 10% precision required by end users in the estimation of Chl. In view of implementing the regressor into operational monitoring applications, here the portability of locally trained GPR models to other images was evaluated. The associated confidence maps proved to be a good indicator for evaluating the robustness of the trained models. Consistent retrievals were obtained across the different images, particularly over agricultural sites. To make the method suitable for operational use, however, the poorer confidences over bare soil areas suggest that the training dataset should be expanded with inputs from various land cover types.

Quantitative structure-retention relationship models for the prediction of the reversed-phase HPLC gradient retention based on the heuristic method and support vector machine.

PubMed

Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Yao, Xiaojun; Hu, Zhide

2009-01-01

The heuristic method (HM) and support vector machine (SVM) were used to construct quantitative structure-retention relationship models by a series of compounds to predict the gradient retention times of reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in three different columns. The aims of this investigation were to predict the retention times of multifarious compounds, to find the main properties of the three columns, and to indicate the theory of separation procedures. In our method, we correlated the retention times of many diverse structural analytes in three columns (Symmetry C18, Chromolith, and SG-MIX) with their representative molecular descriptors, calculated from the molecular structures alone. HM was used to select the most important molecular descriptors and build linear regression models. Furthermore, non-linear regression models were built using the SVM method; the performance of the SVM models were better than that of the HM models, and the prediction results were in good agreement with the experimental values. This paper could give some insights into the factors that were likely to govern the gradient retention process of the three investigated HPLC columns, which could theoretically supervise the practical experiment.

Efficient Online Learning Algorithms Based on LSTM Neural Networks.

PubMed

Ergen, Tolga; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2017-09-13

We investigate online nonlinear regression and introduce novel regression structures based on the long short term memory (LSTM) networks. For the introduced structures, we also provide highly efficient and effective online training methods. To train these novel LSTM-based structures, we put the underlying architecture in a state space form and introduce highly efficient and effective particle filtering (PF)-based updates. We also provide stochastic gradient descent and extended Kalman filter-based updates. Our PF-based training method guarantees convergence to the optimal parameter estimation in the mean square error sense provided that we have a sufficient number of particles and satisfy certain technical conditions. More importantly, we achieve this performance with a computational complexity in the order of the first-order gradient-based methods by controlling the number of particles. Since our approach is generic, we also introduce a gated recurrent unit (GRU)-based approach by directly replacing the LSTM architecture with the GRU architecture, where we demonstrate the superiority of our LSTM-based approach in the sequential prediction task via different real life data sets. In addition, the experimental results illustrate significant performance improvements achieved by the introduced algorithms with respect to the conventional methods over several different benchmark real life data sets.

New modified multi-level residue harmonic balance method for solving nonlinearly vibrating double-beam problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Md. Saifur; Lee, Yiu-Yin

2017-10-01

In this study, a new modified multi-level residue harmonic balance method is presented and adopted to investigate the forced nonlinear vibrations of axially loaded double beams. Although numerous nonlinear beam or linear double-beam problems have been tackled and solved, there have been few studies of this nonlinear double-beam problem. The geometric nonlinear formulations for a double-beam model are developed. The main advantage of the proposed method is that a set of decoupled nonlinear algebraic equations is generated at each solution level. This heavily reduces the computational effort compared with solving the coupled nonlinear algebraic equations generated in the classical harmonic balance method. The proposed method can generate the higher-level nonlinear solutions that are neglected by the previous modified harmonic balance method. The results from the proposed method agree reasonably well with those from the classical harmonic balance method. The effects of damping, axial force, and excitation magnitude on the nonlinear vibrational behaviour are examined.

[Prediction of Encapsulation Temperatures of Copolymer Films in Photovoltaic Cells Using Hyperspectral Imaging Techniques and Chemometrics].

PubMed

Lin, Ping; Chen, Yong-ming; Yao, Zhi-lei

2015-11-01

A novel method of combination of the chemometrics and the hyperspectral imaging techniques was presented to detect the temperatures of Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate copolymer (EVA) films in photovoltaic cells during the thermal encapsulation process. Four varieties of the EVA films which had been heated at the temperatures of 128, 132, 142 and 148 °C during the photovoltaic cells production process were used for investigation in this paper. These copolymer encapsulation films were firstly scanned by the hyperspectral imaging equipment (Spectral Imaging Ltd. Oulu, Finland). The scanning band range of hyperspectral equipemnt was set between 904.58 and 1700.01 nm. The hyperspectral dataset of copolymer films was randomly divided into two parts for the training and test purpose. Each type of the training set and test set contained 90 and 10 instances, respectively. The obtained hyperspectral images of EVA films were dealt with by using the ENVI (Exelis Visual Information Solutions, USA) software. The size of region of interest (ROI) of each obtained hyperspectral image of EVA film was set as 150 x 150 pixels. The average of reflectance hyper spectra of all the pixels in the ROI was used as the characteristic curve to represent the instance. There kinds of chemometrics methods including partial least squares regression (PLSR), multi-class support vector machine (SVM) and large margin nearest neighbor (LMNN) were used to correlate the characteristic hyper spectra with the encapsulation temperatures of of copolymer films. The plot of weighted regression coefficients illustrated that both bands of short- and long-wave near infrared hyperspectral data contributed to enhancing the prediction accuracy of the forecast model. Because the attained reflectance hyperspectral data of EVA materials displayed the strong nonlinearity, the prediction performance of linear modeling method of PLSR declined and the prediction precision only reached to 95%. The kernel-based forecast models were introduced to eliminate the impact of nonlinear hyperspectral data to some extent through mapping the original nonlinear hyperspectral data to the high dimensional linear feature space, so the relationship between the nonlinear hyperspectral data and the encapsulation temperatures of EVA films was fully disclosed finally. Compared with the prediction results of three proposed models, the prediction performance of LMNN was superior to the other two, whose final recognition accuracy achieved 100%. The results indicated that the methods of combination of LMNN model with the hyperspectral imaging techniques was the best one for accurately and rapidly determining the encapsulation temperatures of EVA films of photovoltaic cells. In addition, this paper had created the ideal conditions for automatically monitoring and effectively controlling the encapsulation temperatures of EVA films in the photovoltaic cells production process.

Study on optimization method of test conditions for fatigue crack detection using lock-in vibrothermography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Qing-xu; Zhu, Jun-zhen; Feng, Fu-zhou; Xu, Chao; Sun, Ji-wei

2017-06-01

In this paper, the lock-in vibrothermography (LVT) is utilized for defect detection. Specifically, for a metal plate with an artificial fatigue crack, the temperature rise of the defective area is used for analyzing the influence of different test conditions, i.e. engagement force, excitation intensity, and modulated frequency. The multivariate nonlinear and logistic regression models are employed to estimate the POD (probability of detection) and POA (probability of alarm) of fatigue crack, respectively. The resulting optimal selection of test conditions is presented. The study aims to provide an optimized selection method of the test conditions in the vibrothermography system with the enhanced detection ability.

Parameterization of light absorption by components of seawater in optically complex coastal waters of the Crimea Peninsula (Black Sea).

PubMed

Dmitriev, Egor V; Khomenko, Georges; Chami, Malik; Sokolov, Anton A; Churilova, Tatyana Y; Korotaev, Gennady K

2009-03-01

The absorption of sunlight by oceanic constituents significantly contributes to the spectral distribution of the water-leaving radiance. Here it is shown that current parameterizations of absorption coefficients do not apply to the optically complex waters of the Crimea Peninsula. Based on in situ measurements, parameterizations of phytoplankton, nonalgal, and total particulate absorption coefficients are proposed. Their performance is evaluated using a log-log regression combined with a low-pass filter and the nonlinear least-square method. Statistical significance of the estimated parameters is verified using the bootstrap method. The parameterizations are relevant for chlorophyll a concentrations ranging from 0.45 up to 2 mg/m(3).

Estimating the prevalence of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands using structured additive regression.

PubMed

van de Kassteele, Jan; Zwakhals, Laurens; Breugelmans, Oscar; Ameling, Caroline; van den Brink, Carolien

2017-07-01

Local policy makers increasingly need information on health-related indicators at smaller geographic levels like districts or neighbourhoods. Although more large data sources have become available, direct estimates of the prevalence of a health-related indicator cannot be produced for neighbourhoods for which only small samples or no samples are available. Small area estimation provides a solution, but unit-level models for binary-valued outcomes that can handle both non-linear effects of the predictors and spatially correlated random effects in a unified framework are rarely encountered. We used data on 26 binary-valued health-related indicators collected on 387,195 persons in the Netherlands. We associated the health-related indicators at the individual level with a set of 12 predictors obtained from national registry data. We formulated a structured additive regression model for small area estimation. The model captured potential non-linear relations between the predictors and the outcome through additive terms in a functional form using penalized splines and included a term that accounted for spatially correlated heterogeneity between neighbourhoods. The registry data were used to predict individual outcomes which in turn are aggregated into higher geographical levels, i.e. neighbourhoods. We validated our method by comparing the estimated prevalences with observed prevalences at the individual level and by comparing the estimated prevalences with direct estimates obtained by weighting methods at municipality level. We estimated the prevalence of the 26 health-related indicators for 415 municipalities, 2599 districts and 11,432 neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. We illustrate our method on overweight data and show that there are distinct geographic patterns in the overweight prevalence. Calibration plots show that the estimated prevalences agree very well with observed prevalences at the individual level. The estimated prevalences agree reasonably well with the direct estimates at the municipal level. Structured additive regression is a useful tool to provide small area estimates in a unified framework. We are able to produce valid nationwide small area estimates of 26 health-related indicators at neighbourhood level in the Netherlands. The results can be used for local policy makers to make appropriate health policy decisions.

A fuzzy-logic-based model to predict biogas and methane production rates in a pilot-scale mesophilic UASB reactor treating molasses wastewater.

PubMed

Turkdogan-Aydinol, F Ilter; Yetilmezsoy, Kaan

2010-10-15

A MIMO (multiple inputs and multiple outputs) fuzzy-logic-based model was developed to predict biogas and methane production rates in a pilot-scale 90-L mesophilic up-flow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor treating molasses wastewater. Five input variables such as volumetric organic loading rate (OLR), volumetric total chemical oxygen demand (TCOD) removal rate (R(V)), influent alkalinity, influent pH and effluent pH were fuzzified by the use of an artificial intelligence-based approach. Trapezoidal membership functions with eight levels were conducted for the fuzzy subsets, and a Mamdani-type fuzzy inference system was used to implement a total of 134 rules in the IF-THEN format. The product (prod) and the centre of gravity (COG, centroid) methods were employed as the inference operator and defuzzification methods, respectively. Fuzzy-logic predicted results were compared with the outputs of two exponential non-linear regression models derived in this study. The UASB reactor showed a remarkable performance on the treatment of molasses wastewater, with an average TCOD removal efficiency of 93 (+/-3)% and an average volumetric TCOD removal rate of 6.87 (+/-3.93) kg TCOD(removed)/m(3)-day, respectively. Findings of this study clearly indicated that, compared to non-linear regression models, the proposed MIMO fuzzy-logic-based model produced smaller deviations and exhibited a superior predictive performance on forecasting of both biogas and methane production rates with satisfactory determination coefficients over 0.98. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A computer program (MODFLOWP) for estimating parameters of a transient, three-dimensional ground-water flow model using nonlinear regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Mary Catherine

1992-01-01

This report documents a new version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) which, with the new Parameter-Estimation Package that also is documented in this report, can be used to estimate parameters by nonlinear regression. The new version of MODFLOW is called MODFLOWP (pronounced MOD-FLOW*P), and functions nearly identically to MODFLOW when the ParameterEstimation Package is not used. Parameters are estimated by minimizing a weighted least-squares objective function by the modified Gauss-Newton method or by a conjugate-direction method. Parameters used to calculate the following MODFLOW model inputs can be estimated: Transmissivity and storage coefficient of confined layers; hydraulic conductivity and specific yield of unconfined layers; vertical leakance; vertical anisotropy (used to calculate vertical leakance); horizontal anisotropy; hydraulic conductance of the River, Streamflow-Routing, General-Head Boundary, and Drain Packages; areal recharge rates; maximum evapotranspiration; pumpage rates; and the hydraulic head at constant-head boundaries. Any spatial variation in parameters can be defined by the user. Data used to estimate parameters can include existing independent estimates of parameter values, observed hydraulic heads or temporal changes in hydraulic heads, and observed gains and losses along head-dependent boundaries (such as streams). Model output includes statistics for analyzing the parameter estimates and the model; these statistics can be used to quantify the reliability of the resulting model, to suggest changes in model construction, and to compare results of models constructed in different ways.

Nonlinear information fusion algorithms for data-efficient multi-fidelity modelling.

PubMed

Perdikaris, P; Raissi, M; Damianou, A; Lawrence, N D; Karniadakis, G E

2017-02-01

Multi-fidelity modelling enables accurate inference of quantities of interest by synergistically combining realizations of low-cost/low-fidelity models with a small set of high-fidelity observations. This is particularly effective when the low- and high-fidelity models exhibit strong correlations, and can lead to significant computational gains over approaches that solely rely on high-fidelity models. However, in many cases of practical interest, low-fidelity models can only be well correlated to their high-fidelity counterparts for a specific range of input parameters, and potentially return wrong trends and erroneous predictions if probed outside of their validity regime. Here we put forth a probabilistic framework based on Gaussian process regression and nonlinear autoregressive schemes that is capable of learning complex nonlinear and space-dependent cross-correlations between models of variable fidelity, and can effectively safeguard against low-fidelity models that provide wrong trends. This introduces a new class of multi-fidelity information fusion algorithms that provide a fundamental extension to the existing linear autoregressive methodologies, while still maintaining the same algorithmic complexity and overall computational cost. The performance of the proposed methods is tested in several benchmark problems involving both synthetic and real multi-fidelity datasets from computational fluid dynamics simulations.

On Insensitivity of the Chi-Square Model Test to Nonlinear Misspecification in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mooijaart, Ab; Satorra, Albert

2009-01-01

In this paper, we show that for some structural equation models (SEM), the classical chi-square goodness-of-fit test is unable to detect the presence of nonlinear terms in the model. As an example, we consider a regression model with latent variables and interactions terms. Not only the model test has zero power against that type of…

Parameter Uncertainty on AGCM-simulated Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.

2015-12-01

This work studies the parameter uncertainty on tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) using the Reed-Jablonowski TC test case, which is illustrated in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). It examines the impact from 24 parameters across the physical parameterization schemes that represent the convection, turbulence, precipitation and cloud processes in AGCMs. The one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis method first quantifies their relative importance on TC simulations and identifies the key parameters to the six different TC characteristics: intensity, precipitation, longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF), shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP). Then, 8 physical parameters are chosen and perturbed using the Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. The comparison between OAT ensemble run and LHS ensemble run shows that the simulated TC intensity is mainly affected by the parcel fractional mass entrainment rate in Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme. The nonlinear interactive effect among different physical parameters is negligible on simulated TC intensity. In contrast, this nonlinear interactive effect plays a significant role in other simulated tropical cyclone characteristics (precipitation, LWCF, SWCF, LWP and IWP) and greatly enlarge their simulated uncertainties. The statistical emulator Extended Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (EMARS) is applied to characterize the response functions for nonlinear effect. Last, we find that the intensity uncertainty caused by physical parameters is in a degree comparable to uncertainty caused by model structure (e.g. grid) and initial conditions (e.g. sea surface temperature, atmospheric moisture). These findings suggest the importance of using the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) method to revisit tropical cyclone prediction under climate change scenario.

Nonlinear structural joint model updating based on instantaneous characteristics of dynamic responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zuo-Cai; Xin, Yu; Ren, Wei-Xin

2016-08-01

This paper proposes a new nonlinear joint model updating method for shear type structures based on the instantaneous characteristics of the decomposed structural dynamic responses. To obtain an accurate representation of a nonlinear system's dynamics, the nonlinear joint model is described as the nonlinear spring element with bilinear stiffness. The instantaneous frequencies and amplitudes of the decomposed mono-component are first extracted by the analytical mode decomposition (AMD) method. Then, an objective function based on the residuals of the instantaneous frequencies and amplitudes between the experimental structure and the nonlinear model is created for the nonlinear joint model updating. The optimal values of the nonlinear joint model parameters are obtained by minimizing the objective function using the simulated annealing global optimization method. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a single-story shear type structure subjected to earthquake and harmonic excitations is simulated as a numerical example. Then, a beam structure with multiple local nonlinear elements subjected to earthquake excitation is also simulated. The nonlinear beam structure is updated based on the global and local model using the proposed method. The results show that the proposed local nonlinear model updating method is more effective for structures with multiple local nonlinear elements. Finally, the proposed method is verified by the shake table test of a real high voltage switch structure. The accuracy of the proposed method is quantified both in numerical and experimental applications using the defined error indices. Both the numerical and experimental results have shown that the proposed method can effectively update the nonlinear joint model.

Frequency-domain nonlinear regression algorithm for spectral analysis of broadband SFG spectroscopy.

PubMed

He, Yuhan; Wang, Ying; Wang, Jingjing; Guo, Wei; Wang, Zhaohui

2016-03-01

The resonant spectral bands of the broadband sum frequency generation (BB-SFG) spectra are often distorted by the nonresonant portion and the lineshapes of the laser pulses. Frequency domain nonlinear regression (FDNLR) algorithm was proposed to retrieve the first-order polarization induced by the infrared pulse and to improve the analysis of SFG spectra through simultaneous fitting of a series of time-resolved BB-SFG spectra. The principle of FDNLR was presented, and the validity and reliability were tested by the analysis of the virtual and measured SFG spectra. The relative phase, dephasing time, and lineshapes of the resonant vibrational SFG bands can be retrieved without any preset assumptions about the SFG bands and the incident laser pulses.

Support vector regression and artificial neural network models for stability indicating analysis of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures in pharmaceutical preparation: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naguib, Ibrahim A.; Darwish, Hany W.

2012-02-01

A comparison between support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) multivariate regression methods is established showing the underlying algorithm for each and making a comparison between them to indicate the inherent advantages and limitations. In this paper we compare SVR to ANN with and without variable selection procedure (genetic algorithm (GA)). To project the comparison in a sensible way, the methods are used for the stability indicating quantitative analysis of mixtures of mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride in binary mixtures as a case study in presence of their reported impurities and degradation products (summing up to 6 components) in raw materials and pharmaceutical dosage form via handling the UV spectral data. For proper analysis, a 6 factor 5 level experimental design was established resulting in a training set of 25 mixtures containing different ratios of the interfering species. An independent test set consisting of 5 mixtures was used to validate the prediction ability of the suggested models. The proposed methods (linear SVR (without GA) and linear GA-ANN) were successfully applied to the analysis of pharmaceutical tablets containing mebeverine hydrochloride and sulpiride mixtures. The results manifest the problem of nonlinearity and how models like the SVR and ANN can handle it. The methods indicate the ability of the mentioned multivariate calibration models to deconvolute the highly overlapped UV spectra of the 6 components' mixtures, yet using cheap and easy to handle instruments like the UV spectrophotometer.

Anticipating Mathematics Performance: A Cross-Validation Comparison of AID3 and Regression. AIR 1988 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloom, Allan M.; And Others

In response to the increasing importance of student performance in required classes, research was conducted to compare two prediction procedures, linear modeling using multiple regression and nonlinear modeling using AID3. Performance in the first college math course (College Mathematics, Calculus, or Business Calculus Matrices) was the dependent…

Relationships between Heavy Metal Concentrations in Roadside Topsoil and Distance to Road Edge Based on Field Observations in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Yan, Xuedong; Gao, Dan; Zhang, Fan; Zeng, Chen; Xiang, Wang; Zhang, Man

2013-01-01

This study investigated the spatial distribution of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni) and arsenic (As) in roadside topsoil in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and evaluated the potential environmental risks of these roadside heavy metals due to traffic emissions. A total of 120 topsoil samples were collected along five road segments in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The nonlinear regression method was used to formulize the relationship between the metal concentrations in roadside soils and roadside distance. The Hakanson potential ecological risk index method was applied to assess the degrees of heavy metal contaminations. The regression results showed that both of the heavy metals’ concentrations and their ecological risk indices decreased exponentially with the increase of roadside distance. The large R square values of the regression models indicate that the exponential regression method can suitably describe the relationship between heavy metal accumulation and roadside distance. For the entire study region, there was a moderate level of potential ecological risk within a 10 m roadside distance. However, Cd was the only prominent heavy metal which posed potential hazard to the local soil ecosystem. Overall, the rank of risk contribution to the local environments among the eight heavy metals was Cd > As > Ni > Pb > Cu > Co > Zn > Cr. Considering that Cd is a more hazardous heavy metal than other elements for public health, the local government should pay special attention to this traffic-related environmental issue. PMID:23439515

Heritable Environmental Variance Causes Nonlinear Relationships Between Traits: Application to Birth Weight and Stillbirth of Pigs

PubMed Central

Mulder, Herman A.; Hill, William G.; Knol, Egbert F.

2015-01-01

There is recent evidence from laboratory experiments and analysis of livestock populations that not only the phenotype itself, but also its environmental variance, is under genetic control. Little is known about the relationships between the environmental variance of one trait and mean levels of other traits, however. A genetic covariance between these is expected to lead to nonlinearity between them, for example between birth weight and survival of piglets, where animals of extreme weights have lower survival. The objectives were to derive this nonlinear relationship analytically using multiple regression and apply it to data on piglet birth weight and survival. This study provides a framework to study such nonlinear relationships caused by genetic covariance of environmental variance of one trait and the mean of the other. It is shown that positions of phenotypic and genetic optima may differ and that genetic relationships are likely to be more curvilinear than phenotypic relationships, dependent mainly on the environmental correlation between these traits. Genetic correlations may change if the population means change relative to the optimal phenotypes. Data of piglet birth weight and survival show that the presence of nonlinearity can be partly explained by the genetic covariance between environmental variance of birth weight and survival. The framework developed can be used to assess effects of artificial and natural selection on means and variances of traits and the statistical method presented can be used to estimate trade-offs between environmental variance of one trait and mean levels of others. PMID:25631318

Naval Research Logistics Quarterly. Volume 28. Number 3,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

denotes component-wise maximum. f has antone (isotone) differences on C x D if for cl < c2 and d, < d2, NAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS QUARTERLY VOL. 28...or negative correlations and linear or nonlinear regressions. Given are the mo- ments to order two and, for special cases, (he regression function and...data sets. We designate this bnb distribution as G - B - N(a, 0, v). The distribution admits only of positive correlation and linear regressions

Modeling vertebrate diversity in Oregon using satellite imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cablk, Mary Elizabeth

Vertebrate diversity was modeled for the state of Oregon using a parametric approach to regression tree analysis. This exploratory data analysis effectively modeled the non-linear relationships between vertebrate richness and phenology, terrain, and climate. Phenology was derived from time-series NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery for the year 1992 using two methods: principal component analysis and derivation of EROS data center greenness metrics. These two measures of spatial and temporal vegetation condition incorporated the critical temporal element in this analysis. The first three principal components were shown to contain spatial and temporal information about the landscape and discriminated phenologically distinct regions in Oregon. Principal components 2 and 3, 6 greenness metrics, elevation, slope, aspect, annual precipitation, and annual seasonal temperature difference were investigated as correlates to amphibians, birds, all vertebrates, reptiles, and mammals. Variation explained for each regression tree by taxa were: amphibians (91%), birds (67%), all vertebrates (66%), reptiles (57%), and mammals (55%). Spatial statistics were used to quantify the pattern of each taxa and assess validity of resulting predictions from regression tree models. Regression tree analysis was relatively robust against spatial autocorrelation in the response data and graphical results indicated models were well fit to the data.

Overview of artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Zou, Jinming; Han, Yi; So, Sung-Sau

2008-01-01

The artificial neural network (ANN), or simply neural network, is a machine learning method evolved from the idea of simulating the human brain. The data explosion in modem drug discovery research requires sophisticated analysis methods to uncover the hidden causal relationships between single or multiple responses and a large set of properties. The ANN is one of many versatile tools to meet the demand in drug discovery modeling. Compared to a traditional regression approach, the ANN is capable of modeling complex nonlinear relationships. The ANN also has excellent fault tolerance and is fast and highly scalable with parallel processing. This chapter introduces the background of ANN development and outlines the basic concepts crucially important for understanding more sophisticated ANN. Several commonly used learning methods and network setups are discussed briefly at the end of the chapter.

Multigrid approaches to non-linear diffusion problems on unstructured meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavriplis, Dimitri J.; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The efficiency of three multigrid methods for solving highly non-linear diffusion problems on two-dimensional unstructured meshes is examined. The three multigrid methods differ mainly in the manner in which the nonlinearities of the governing equations are handled. These comprise a non-linear full approximation storage (FAS) multigrid method which is used to solve the non-linear equations directly, a linear multigrid method which is used to solve the linear system arising from a Newton linearization of the non-linear system, and a hybrid scheme which is based on a non-linear FAS multigrid scheme, but employs a linear solver on each level as a smoother. Results indicate that all methods are equally effective at converging the non-linear residual in a given number of grid sweeps, but that the linear solver is more efficient in cpu time due to the lower cost of linear versus non-linear grid sweeps.

Measuring multi-joint stiffness during single movements: numerical validation of a novel time-frequency approach.

PubMed

Piovesan, Davide; Pierobon, Alberto; DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R

2012-01-01

This study presents and validates a Time-Frequency technique for measuring 2-dimensional multijoint arm stiffness throughout a single planar movement as well as during static posture. It is proposed as an alternative to current regressive methods which require numerous repetitions to obtain average stiffness on a small segment of the hand trajectory. The method is based on the analysis of the reassigned spectrogram of the arm's response to impulsive perturbations and can estimate arm stiffness on a trial-by-trial basis. Analytic and empirical methods are first derived and tested through modal analysis on synthetic data. The technique's accuracy and robustness are assessed by modeling the estimation of stiffness time profiles changing at different rates and affected by different noise levels. Our method obtains results comparable with two well-known regressive techniques. We also test how the technique can identify the viscoelastic component of non-linear and higher than second order systems with a non-parametrical approach. The technique proposed here is very impervious to noise and can be used easily for both postural and movement tasks. Estimations of stiffness profiles are possible with only one perturbation, making our method a useful tool for estimating limb stiffness during motor learning and adaptation tasks, and for understanding the modulation of stiffness in individuals with neurodegenerative diseases.

Firmness prediction in Prunus persica 'Calrico' peaches by visible/short-wave near infrared spectroscopy and acoustic measurements using optimised linear and non-linear chemometric models.

PubMed

Lafuente, Victoria; Herrera, Luis J; Pérez, María del Mar; Val, Jesús; Negueruela, Ignacio

2015-08-15

In this work, near infrared spectroscopy (NIR) and an acoustic measure (AWETA) (two non-destructive methods) were applied in Prunus persica fruit 'Calrico' (n = 260) to predict Magness-Taylor (MT) firmness. Separate and combined use of these measures was evaluated and compared using partial least squares (PLS) and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) regression methods. Also, a mutual-information-based variable selection method, seeking to find the most significant variables to produce optimal accuracy of the regression models, was applied to a joint set of variables (NIR wavelengths and AWETA measure). The newly proposed combined NIR-AWETA model gave good values of the determination coefficient (R(2)) for PLS and LS-SVM methods (0.77 and 0.78, respectively), improving the reliability of MT firmness prediction in comparison with separate NIR and AWETA predictions. The three variables selected by the variable selection method (AWETA measure plus NIR wavelengths 675 and 697 nm) achieved R(2) values 0.76 and 0.77, PLS and LS-SVM. These results indicated that the proposed mutual-information-based variable selection algorithm was a powerful tool for the selection of the most relevant variables. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Resolving model parameter values from carbon and nitrogen stock measurements in a wide range of tropical mature forests using nonlinear inversion and regression trees

Treesearch

Shuguang Liua; Pamela Anderson; Guoyi Zhoud; Boone Kauffman; Flint Hughes; David Schimel; Vicente Watson; Joseph Tosi

2008-01-01

Objectively assessing the performance of a model and deriving model parameter values from observations are critical and challenging in landscape to regional modeling. In this paper, we applied a nonlinear inversion technique to calibrate the ecosystem model CENTURY against carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stock measurements collected from 39 mature tropical forest sites in...

Development of a pneumatic high-angle-of-attack Flush Airdata Sensing (HI-FADS) system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Moes, Timothy R.; Leondes, Cornelius T.

1992-01-01

The HI-FADS system design is an evolution of the FADS systems (e.g., Larson et al., 1980, 1987), which emphasizes the entire airdata system development. This paper describes the HI-FADS measurement system, with particular consideration given to the basic measurement hardware and the development of the HI-FADS aerodynamic model and the basic nonlinear regression algorithm. Algorithm initialization techniques are developed, and potential algorithm divergence problems are discussed. Data derived from HI-FADS flight tests are used to demonstrate the system accuracies and to illustrate the developed concepts and methods.

Electrochemical Impedance Imaging via the Distribution of Diffusion Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Juhyun; Bazant, Martin Z.

2018-03-01

We develop a mathematical framework to analyze electrochemical impedance spectra in terms of a distribution of diffusion times (DDT) for a parallel array of random finite-length Warburg (diffusion) or Gerischer (reaction-diffusion) circuit elements. A robust DDT inversion method is presented based on complex nonlinear least squares regression with Tikhonov regularization and illustrated for three cases of nanostructured electrodes for energy conversion: (i) a carbon nanotube supercapacitor, (ii) a silicon nanowire Li-ion battery, and (iii) a porous-carbon vanadium flow battery. The results demonstrate the feasibility of nondestructive "impedance imaging" to infer microstructural statistics of random, heterogeneous materials.

Determining a Prony Series for a Viscoelastic Material From Time Varying Strain Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzikang, Chen

2000-01-01

In this study a method of determining the coefficients in a Prony series representation of a viscoelastic modulus from rate dependent data is presented. Load versus time test data for a sequence of different rate loading segments is least-squares fitted to a Prony series hereditary integral model of the material tested. A nonlinear least squares regression algorithm is employed. The measured data includes ramp loading, relaxation, and unloading stress-strain data. The resulting Prony series which captures strain rate loading and unloading effects, produces an excellent fit to the complex loading sequence.

Multi-pose facial correction based on Gaussian process with combined kernel function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Shuyan; Ji, Ruirui; Zhang, Fan

2018-04-01

In order to improve the recognition rate of various postures, this paper proposes a method of facial correction based on Gaussian Process which build a nonlinear regression model between the front and the side face with combined kernel function. The face images with horizontal angle from -45° to +45° can be properly corrected to front faces. Finally, Support Vector Machine is employed for face recognition. Experiments on CAS PEAL R1 face database show that Gaussian process can weaken the influence of pose changes and improve the accuracy of face recognition to certain extent.

High-Dimensional Intrinsic Interpolation Using Gaussian Process Regression and Diffusion Maps

DOE PAGES

Thimmisetty, Charanraj A.; Ghanem, Roger G.; White, Joshua A.; ...

2017-10-10

This article considers the challenging task of estimating geologic properties of interest using a suite of proxy measurements. The current work recast this task as a manifold learning problem. In this process, this article introduces a novel regression procedure for intrinsic variables constrained onto a manifold embedded in an ambient space. The procedure is meant to sharpen high-dimensional interpolation by inferring non-linear correlations from the data being interpolated. The proposed approach augments manifold learning procedures with a Gaussian process regression. It first identifies, using diffusion maps, a low-dimensional manifold embedded in an ambient high-dimensional space associated with the data. Itmore » relies on the diffusion distance associated with this construction to define a distance function with which the data model is equipped. This distance metric function is then used to compute the correlation structure of a Gaussian process that describes the statistical dependence of quantities of interest in the high-dimensional ambient space. The proposed method is applicable to arbitrarily high-dimensional data sets. Here, it is applied to subsurface characterization using a suite of well log measurements. The predictions obtained in original, principal component, and diffusion space are compared using both qualitative and quantitative metrics. Considerable improvement in the prediction of the geological structural properties is observed with the proposed method.« less

High-Dimensional Intrinsic Interpolation Using Gaussian Process Regression and Diffusion Maps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thimmisetty, Charanraj A.; Ghanem, Roger G.; White, Joshua A.

This article considers the challenging task of estimating geologic properties of interest using a suite of proxy measurements. The current work recast this task as a manifold learning problem. In this process, this article introduces a novel regression procedure for intrinsic variables constrained onto a manifold embedded in an ambient space. The procedure is meant to sharpen high-dimensional interpolation by inferring non-linear correlations from the data being interpolated. The proposed approach augments manifold learning procedures with a Gaussian process regression. It first identifies, using diffusion maps, a low-dimensional manifold embedded in an ambient high-dimensional space associated with the data. Itmore » relies on the diffusion distance associated with this construction to define a distance function with which the data model is equipped. This distance metric function is then used to compute the correlation structure of a Gaussian process that describes the statistical dependence of quantities of interest in the high-dimensional ambient space. The proposed method is applicable to arbitrarily high-dimensional data sets. Here, it is applied to subsurface characterization using a suite of well log measurements. The predictions obtained in original, principal component, and diffusion space are compared using both qualitative and quantitative metrics. Considerable improvement in the prediction of the geological structural properties is observed with the proposed method.« less

A statistical methodology for estimating transport parameters: Theory and applications to one-dimensional advectivec-dispersive systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Brian J.; Gorelick, Steven M.

1986-01-01

A simulation nonlinear multiple-regression methodology for estimating parameters that characterize the transport of contaminants is developed and demonstrated. Finite difference contaminant transport simulation is combined with a nonlinear weighted least squares multiple-regression procedure. The technique provides optimal parameter estimates and gives statistics for assessing the reliability of these estimates under certain general assumptions about the distributions of the random measurement errors. Monte Carlo analysis is used to estimate parameter reliability for a hypothetical homogeneous soil column for which concentration data contain large random measurement errors. The value of data collected spatially versus data collected temporally was investigated for estimation of velocity, dispersion coefficient, effective porosity, first-order decay rate, and zero-order production. The use of spatial data gave estimates that were 2–3 times more reliable than estimates based on temporal data for all parameters except velocity. Comparison of estimated linear and nonlinear confidence intervals based upon Monte Carlo analysis showed that the linear approximation is poor for dispersion coefficient and zero-order production coefficient when data are collected over time. In addition, examples demonstrate transport parameter estimation for two real one-dimensional systems. First, the longitudinal dispersivity and effective porosity of an unsaturated soil are estimated using laboratory column data. We compare the reliability of estimates based upon data from individual laboratory experiments versus estimates based upon pooled data from several experiments. Second, the simulation nonlinear regression procedure is extended to include an additional governing equation that describes delayed storage during contaminant transport. The model is applied to analyze the trends, variability, and interrelationship of parameters in a mourtain stream in northern California.

More green space is related to less antidepressant prescription rates in the Netherlands: A Bayesian geoadditive quantile regression approach.

PubMed

Helbich, Marco; Klein, Nadja; Roberts, Hannah; Hagedoorn, Paulien; Groenewegen, Peter P

2018-06-20

Exposure to green space seems to be beneficial for self-reported mental health. In this study we used an objective health indicator, namely antidepressant prescription rates. Current studies rely exclusively upon mean regression models assuming linear associations. It is, however, plausible that the presence of green space is non-linearly related with different quantiles of the outcome antidepressant prescription rates. These restrictions may contribute to inconsistent findings. Our aim was: a) to assess antidepressant prescription rates in relation to green space, and b) to analyze how the relationship varies non-linearly across different quantiles of antidepressant prescription rates. We used cross-sectional data for the year 2014 at a municipality level in the Netherlands. Ecological Bayesian geoadditive quantile regressions were fitted for the 15%, 50%, and 85% quantiles to estimate green space-prescription rate correlations, controlling for physical activity levels, socio-demographics, urbanicity, etc. RESULTS: The results suggested that green space was overall inversely and non-linearly associated with antidepressant prescription rates. More important, the associations differed across the quantiles, although the variation was modest. Significant non-linearities were apparent: The associations were slightly positive in the lower quantile and strongly negative in the upper one. Our findings imply that an increased availability of green space within a municipality may contribute to a reduction in the number of antidepressant prescriptions dispensed. Green space is thus a central health and community asset, whilst a minimum level of 28% needs to be established for health gains. The highest effectiveness occurred at a municipality surface percentage higher than 79%. This inverse dose-dependent relation has important implications for setting future community-level health and planning policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing artificial neural networks and statistical methods for infilling missing soil moisture records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumedah, Gift; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Chik, Li

2014-07-01

Soil moisture information is critically important for water management operations including flood forecasting, drought monitoring, and groundwater recharge estimation. While an accurate and continuous record of soil moisture is required for these applications, the available soil moisture data, in practice, is typically fraught with missing values. There are a wide range of methods available to infilling hydrologic variables, but a thorough inter-comparison between statistical methods and artificial neural networks has not been made. This study examines 5 statistical methods including monthly averages, weighted Pearson correlation coefficient, a method based on temporal stability of soil moisture, and a weighted merging of the three methods, together with a method based on the concept of rough sets. Additionally, 9 artificial neural networks are examined, broadly categorized into feedforward, dynamic, and radial basis networks. These 14 infilling methods were used to estimate missing soil moisture records and subsequently validated against known values for 13 soil moisture monitoring stations for three different soil layer depths in the Yanco region in southeast Australia. The evaluation results show that the top three highest performing methods are the nonlinear autoregressive neural network, rough sets method, and monthly replacement. A high estimation accuracy (root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.03 m/m) was found in the nonlinear autoregressive network, due to its regression based dynamic network which allows feedback connections through discrete-time estimation. An equally high accuracy (0.05 m/m RMSE) in the rough sets procedure illustrates the important role of temporal persistence of soil moisture, with the capability to account for different soil moisture conditions.

Multi-objective Optimization of Solar Irradiance and Variance at Pertinent Inclination Angles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Dhanesh; Lalwani, Mahendra

2018-05-01

The performance of photovoltaic panel gets highly affected bychange in atmospheric conditions and angle of inclination. This article evaluates the optimum tilt angle and orientation angle (surface azimuth angle) for solar photovoltaic array in order to get maximum solar irradiance and to reduce variance of radiation at different sets or subsets of time periods. Non-linear regression and adaptive neural fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) methods are used for predicting the solar radiation. The results of ANFIS are more accurate in comparison to non-linear regression. These results are further used for evaluating the correlation and applied for estimating the optimum combination of tilt angle and orientation angle with the help of general algebraic modelling system and multi-objective genetic algorithm. The hourly average solar irradiation is calculated at different combinations of tilt angle and orientation angle with the help of horizontal surface radiation data of Jodhpur (Rajasthan, India). The hourly average solar irradiance is calculated for three cases: zero variance, with actual variance and with double variance at different time scenarios. It is concluded that monthly collected solar radiation produces better result as compared to bimonthly, seasonally, half-yearly and yearly collected solar radiation. The profit obtained for monthly varying angle has 4.6% more with zero variance and 3.8% more with actual variance, than the annually fixed angle.

Use of non-linear mixed-effects modelling and regression analysis to predict the number of somatic coliphages by plaque enumeration after 3 hours of incubation.

PubMed

Mendez, Javier; Monleon-Getino, Antonio; Jofre, Juan; Lucena, Francisco

2017-10-01

The present study aimed to establish the kinetics of the appearance of coliphage plaques using the double agar layer titration technique to evaluate the feasibility of using traditional coliphage plaque forming unit (PFU) enumeration as a rapid quantification method. Repeated measurements of the appearance of plaques of coliphages titrated according to ISO 10705-2 at different times were analysed using non-linear mixed-effects regression to determine the most suitable model of their appearance kinetics. Although this model is adequate, to simplify its applicability two linear models were developed to predict the numbers of coliphages reliably, using the PFU counts as determined by the ISO after only 3 hours of incubation. One linear model, when the number of plaques detected was between 4 and 26 PFU after 3 hours, had a linear fit of: (1.48 × Counts 3 h + 1.97); and the other, values >26 PFU, had a fit of (1.18 × Counts 3 h + 2.95). If the number of plaques detected was <4 PFU after 3 hours, we recommend incubation for (18 ± 3) hours. The study indicates that the traditional coliphage plating technique has a reasonable potential to provide results in a single working day without the need to invest in additional laboratory equipment.

Robust fitting for neuroreceptor mapping.

PubMed

Chang, Chung; Ogden, R Todd

2009-03-15

Among many other uses, positron emission tomography (PET) can be used in studies to estimate the density of a neuroreceptor at each location throughout the brain by measuring the concentration of a radiotracer over time and modeling its kinetics. There are a variety of kinetic models in common usage and these typically rely on nonlinear least-squares (LS) algorithms for parameter estimation. However, PET data often contain artifacts (such as uncorrected head motion) and so the assumptions on which the LS methods are based may be violated. Quantile regression (QR) provides a robust alternative to LS methods and has been used successfully in many applications. We consider fitting various kinetic models to PET data using QR and study the relative performance of the methods via simulation. A data adaptive method for choosing between LS and QR is proposed and the performance of this method is also studied.

Predicting volume of distribution with decision tree-based regression methods using predicted tissue:plasma partition coefficients.

PubMed

Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat

2015-01-01

Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.

Delineating chalk sand distribution of Ekofisk formation using probabilistic neural network (PNN) and stepwise regression (SWR): Case study Danish North Sea field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, A.; Nafian, M.; Riyanto, A.

2017-07-01

Danish North Sea Fields consist of several formations (Ekofisk, Tor, and Cromer Knoll) that was started from the age of Paleocene to Miocene. In this study, the integration of seismic and well log data set is carried out to determine the chalk sand distribution in the Danish North Sea field. The integration of seismic and well log data set is performed by using the seismic inversion analysis and seismic multi-attribute. The seismic inversion algorithm, which is used to derive acoustic impedance (AI), is model-based technique. The derived AI is then used as external attributes for the input of multi-attribute analysis. Moreover, the multi-attribute analysis is used to generate the linear and non-linear transformation of among well log properties. In the case of the linear model, selected transformation is conducted by weighting step-wise linear regression (SWR), while for the non-linear model is performed by using probabilistic neural networks (PNN). The estimated porosity, which is resulted by PNN shows better suited to the well log data compared with the results of SWR. This result can be understood since PNN perform non-linear regression so that the relationship between the attribute data and predicted log data can be optimized. The distribution of chalk sand has been successfully identified and characterized by porosity value ranging from 23% up to 30%.

A variable structure fuzzy neural network model of squamous dysplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on a global chaotic optimization algorithm.

PubMed

Moghtadaei, Motahareh; Hashemi Golpayegani, Mohammad Reza; Malekzadeh, Reza

2013-02-07

Identification of squamous dysplasia and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is of great importance in prevention of cancer incidence. Computer aided algorithms can be very useful for identification of people with higher risks of squamous dysplasia, and ESCC. Such method can limit the clinical screenings to people with higher risks. Different regression methods have been used to predict ESCC and dysplasia. In this paper, a Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) model is selected for ESCC and dysplasia prediction. The inputs to the classifier are the risk factors. Since the relation between risk factors in the tumor system has a complex nonlinear behavior, in comparison to most of ordinary data, the cost function of its model can have more local optimums. Thus the need for global optimization methods is more highlighted. The proposed method in this paper is a Chaotic Optimization Algorithm (COA) proceeding by the common Error Back Propagation (EBP) local method. Since the model has many parameters, we use a strategy to reduce the dependency among parameters caused by the chaotic series generator. This dependency was not considered in the previous COA methods. The algorithm is compared with logistic regression model as the latest successful methods of ESCC and dysplasia prediction. The results represent a more precise prediction with less mean and variance of error. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent advances in reduction methods for nonlinear problems. [in structural mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, A. K.

1981-01-01

Status and some recent developments in the application of reduction methods to nonlinear structural mechanics problems are summarized. The aspects of reduction methods discussed herein include: (1) selection of basis vectors in nonlinear static and dynamic problems, (2) application of reduction methods in nonlinear static analysis of structures subjected to prescribed edge displacements, and (3) use of reduction methods in conjunction with mixed finite element models. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of reduction methods in nonlinear problems. Also, a number of research areas which have high potential for application of reduction methods are identified.

Single-chip source-free terahertz spectroscope across 0.04-0.99 THz: combining sub-wavelength near-field sensing and regression analysis.

PubMed

Wu, Xue; Sengupta, Kaushik

2018-03-19

This paper demonstrates a methodology to miniaturize THz spectroscopes into a single silicon chip by eliminating traditional solid-state architectural components such as complex tunable THz and optical sources, nonlinear mixing and amplifiers. The proposed method achieves this by extracting incident THz spectral signatures from the surface of an on-chip antenna itself. The information is sensed through the spectrally-sensitive 2D distribution of the impressed current surface under the THz incident field. By converting the antenna from a single-port to a massively multi-port architecture with integrated electronics and deep subwavelength sensing, THz spectral estimation is converted into a linear estimation problem. We employ rigorous regression techniques and analysis to demonstrate a single silicon chip system operating at room temperature across 0.04-0.99 THz with 10 MHz accuracy in spectrum estimation of THz tones across the entire spectrum.

Sensitivity analysis, calibration, and testing of a distributed hydrological model using error‐based weighting and one objective function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Hill, Mary C.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Burlando, P.

2009-01-01

We evaluate the utility of three interrelated means of using data to calibrate the fully distributed rainfall‐runoff model TOPKAPI as applied to the Maggia Valley drainage area in Switzerland. The use of error‐based weighting of observation and prior information data, local sensitivity analysis, and single‐objective function nonlinear regression provides quantitative evaluation of sensitivity of the 35 model parameters to the data, identification of data types most important to the calibration, and identification of correlations among parameters that contribute to nonuniqueness. Sensitivity analysis required only 71 model runs, and regression required about 50 model runs. The approach presented appears to be ideal for evaluation of models with long run times or as a preliminary step to more computationally demanding methods. The statistics used include composite scaled sensitivities, parameter correlation coefficients, leverage, Cook's D, and DFBETAS. Tests suggest predictive ability of the calibrated model typical of hydrologic models.

[Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), an alternative for the analysis of time series].

PubMed

Vanegas, Jairo; Vásquez, Fabián

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) is a non-parametric modelling method that extends the linear model, incorporating nonlinearities and interactions between variables. It is a flexible tool that automates the construction of predictive models: selecting relevant variables, transforming the predictor variables, processing missing values and preventing overshooting using a self-test. It is also able to predict, taking into account structural factors that might influence the outcome variable, thereby generating hypothetical models. The end result could identify relevant cut-off points in data series. It is rarely used in health, so it is proposed as a tool for the evaluation of relevant public health indicators. For demonstrative purposes, data series regarding the mortality of children under 5 years of age in Costa Rica were used, comprising the period 1978-2008. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Changing Nonlinear Relationship between Income and Terrorism

PubMed Central

Enders, Walter; Hoover, Gary A.

2014-01-01

This article reinvestigates the relationship between real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and terrorism. We devise a terrorism Lorenz curve to show that domestic and transnational terrorist attacks are each more concentrated in middle-income countries, thereby suggesting a nonlinear income–terrorism relationship. Moreover, this point of concentration shifted to lower income countries after the rising influence of the religious fundamentalist and nationalist/separatist terrorists in the early 1990s. For transnational terrorist attacks, this shift characterized not only the attack venue but also the perpetrators’ nationality. The article then uses nonlinear smooth transition regressions to establish the relationship between real per capita GDP and terrorism for eight alternative terrorism samples, accounting for venue, perpetrators’ nationality, terrorism type, and the period. Our nonlinear estimates are shown to be favored over estimates using linear or quadratic income determinants of terrorism. These nonlinear estimates are robust to additional controls. PMID:28579636

Model-free inference of direct network interactions from nonlinear collective dynamics.

PubMed

Casadiego, Jose; Nitzan, Mor; Hallerberg, Sarah; Timme, Marc

2017-12-19

The topology of interactions in network dynamical systems fundamentally underlies their function. Accelerating technological progress creates massively available data about collective nonlinear dynamics in physical, biological, and technological systems. Detecting direct interaction patterns from those dynamics still constitutes a major open problem. In particular, current nonlinear dynamics approaches mostly require to know a priori a model of the (often high dimensional) system dynamics. Here we develop a model-independent framework for inferring direct interactions solely from recording the nonlinear collective dynamics generated. Introducing an explicit dependency matrix in combination with a block-orthogonal regression algorithm, the approach works reliably across many dynamical regimes, including transient dynamics toward steady states, periodic and non-periodic dynamics, and chaos. Together with its capabilities to reveal network (two point) as well as hypernetwork (e.g., three point) interactions, this framework may thus open up nonlinear dynamics options of inferring direct interaction patterns across systems where no model is known.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Lesley; Hawkins, Ed; Woollings, Tim

2015-01-01

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

An iterative kernel based method for fourth order nonlinear equation with nonlinear boundary condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnavid, Babak; Parand, Kourosh; Abbasbandy, Saeid

2018-06-01

This article discusses an iterative reproducing kernel method with respect to its effectiveness and capability of solving a fourth-order boundary value problem with nonlinear boundary conditions modeling beams on elastic foundations. Since there is no method of obtaining reproducing kernel which satisfies nonlinear boundary conditions, the standard reproducing kernel methods cannot be used directly to solve boundary value problems with nonlinear boundary conditions as there is no knowledge about the existence and uniqueness of the solution. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to construct an iterative method by the use of a combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space method and a shooting-like technique to solve the mentioned problems. Error estimation for reproducing kernel Hilbert space methods for nonlinear boundary value problems have yet to be discussed in the literature. In this paper, we present error estimation for the reproducing kernel method to solve nonlinear boundary value problems probably for the first time. Some numerical results are given out to demonstrate the applicability of the method.

Using nonlinear quantile regression to estimate the self-thinning boundary curve

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Thomas J. Dean

2015-01-01

The relationship between tree size (quadratic mean diameter) and tree density (number of trees per unit area) has been a topic of research and discussion for many decades. Starting with Reineke in 1933, the maximum size-density relationship, on a log-log scale, has been assumed to be linear. Several techniques, including linear quantile regression, have been employed...

The Influential Effect of Blending, Bump, Changing Period, and Eclipsing Cepheids on the Leavitt Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Varela, A.; Muñoz, J. R.; Sabogal, B. E.; Vargas Domínguez, S.; Martínez, J.

2016-06-01

The investigation of the nonlinearity of the Leavitt law (LL) is a topic that began more than seven decades ago, when some of the studies in this field found that the LL has a break at about 10 days. The goal of this work is to investigate a possible statistical cause of this nonlinearity. By applying linear regressions to OGLE-II and OGLE-IV data, we find that to obtain the LL by using linear regression, robust techniques to deal with influential points and/or outliers are needed instead of the ordinary least-squares regression traditionally used. In particular, by using M- and MM-regressions we establish firmly and without doubt the linearity of the LL in the Large Magellanic Cloud, without rejecting or excluding Cepheid data from the analysis. This implies that light curves of Cepheids suggesting blending, bumps, eclipses, or period changes do not affect the LL for this galaxy. For the Small Magellanic Cloud, when including Cepheids of this kind, it is not possible to find an adequate model, probably because of the geometry of the galaxy. In that case, a possible influence of these stars could exist.

Aerial robot intelligent control method based on back-stepping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Jian; Xue, Qian

2018-05-01

The aerial robot is characterized as strong nonlinearity, high coupling and parameter uncertainty, a self-adaptive back-stepping control method based on neural network is proposed in this paper. The uncertain part of the aerial robot model is compensated online by the neural network of Cerebellum Model Articulation Controller and robust control items are designed to overcome the uncertainty error of the system during online learning. At the same time, particle swarm algorithm is used to optimize and fix parameters so as to improve the dynamic performance, and control law is obtained by the recursion of back-stepping regression. Simulation results show that the designed control law has desired attitude tracking performance and good robustness in case of uncertainties and large errors in the model parameters.

Joint effect of unlinked genotypes: application to type 2 diabetes in the EPIC-Potsdam case-cohort study.

PubMed

Knüppel, Sven; Meidtner, Karina; Arregui, Maria; Holzhütter, Hermann-Georg; Boeing, Heiner

2015-07-01

Analyzing multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a promising approach to finding genetic effects beyond single-locus associations. We proposed the use of multilocus stepwise regression (MSR) to screen for allele combinations as a method to model joint effects, and compared the results with the often used genetic risk score (GRS), conventional stepwise selection, and the shrinkage method LASSO. In contrast to MSR, the GRS, conventional stepwise selection, and LASSO model each genotype by the risk allele doses. We reanalyzed 20 unlinked SNPs related to type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the EPIC-Potsdam case-cohort study (760 cases, 2193 noncases). No SNP-SNP interactions and no nonlinear effects were found. Two SNP combinations selected by MSR (Nagelkerke's R² = 0.050 and 0.048) included eight SNPs with mean allele combination frequency of 2%. GRS and stepwise selection selected nearly the same SNP combinations consisting of 12 and 13 SNPs (Nagelkerke's R² ranged from 0.020 to 0.029). LASSO showed similar results. The MSR method showed the best model fit measured by Nagelkerke's R² suggesting that further improvement may render this method a useful tool in genetic research. However, our comparison suggests that the GRS is a simple way to model genetic effects since it does not consider linkage, SNP-SNP interactions, and no non-linear effects. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

Parameter estimation procedure for complex non-linear systems: calibration of ASM No. 1 for N-removal in a full-scale oxidation ditch.

PubMed

Abusam, A; Keesman, K J; van Straten, G; Spanjers, H; Meinema, K

2001-01-01

When applied to large simulation models, the process of parameter estimation is also called calibration. Calibration of complex non-linear systems, such as activated sludge plants, is often not an easy task. On the one hand, manual calibration of such complex systems is usually time-consuming, and its results are often not reproducible. On the other hand, conventional automatic calibration methods are not always straightforward and often hampered by local minima problems. In this paper a new straightforward and automatic procedure, which is based on the response surface method (RSM) for selecting the best identifiable parameters, is proposed. In RSM, the process response (output) is related to the levels of the input variables in terms of a first- or second-order regression model. Usually, RSM is used to relate measured process output quantities to process conditions. However, in this paper RSM is used for selecting the dominant parameters, by evaluating parameters sensitivity in a predefined region. Good results obtained in calibration of ASM No. 1 for N-removal in a full-scale oxidation ditch proved that the proposed procedure is successful and reliable.

Calculated quantum yield of photosynthesis of phytoplankton in the Marine Light-Mixed Layers (59 deg N, 21 deg W)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carder, K. L.; Lee, Z. P.; Marra, John; Steward, R. G.; Perry, M. J.

1995-01-01

The quantum yield of photosynthesis (mol C/mol photons) was calculated at six depths for the waters of the Marine Light-Mixed Layer (MLML) cruise of May 1991. As there were photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) but no spectral irradiance measurements for the primary production incubations, three ways are presented here for the calculation of the absorbed photons (AP) by phytoplankton for the purpose of calculating phi. The first is based on a simple, nonspectral model; the second is based on a nonlinear regression using measured PAR values with depth; and the third is derived through remote sensing measurements. We show that the results of phi calculated using the nonlinear regreesion method and those using remote sensing are in good agreement with each other, and are consistent with the reported values of other studies. In deep waters, however, the simple nonspectral model may cause quantum yield values much higher than theoretically possible.

Maximum Correntropy Unscented Kalman Filter for Spacecraft Relative State Estimation.

PubMed

Liu, Xi; Qu, Hua; Zhao, Jihong; Yue, Pengcheng; Wang, Meng

2016-09-20

A new algorithm called maximum correntropy unscented Kalman filter (MCUKF) is proposed and applied to relative state estimation in space communication networks. As is well known, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) provides an efficient tool to solve the non-linear state estimate problem. However, the UKF usually plays well in Gaussian noises. Its performance may deteriorate substantially in the presence of non-Gaussian noises, especially when the measurements are disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises. By making use of the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC), the proposed algorithm can enhance the robustness of UKF against impulsive noises. In the MCUKF, the unscented transformation (UT) is applied to obtain a predicted state estimation and covariance matrix, and a nonlinear regression method with the MCC cost is then used to reformulate the measurement information. Finally, the UT is adopted to the measurement equation to obtain the filter state and covariance matrix. Illustrative examples demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm.

Application of neural networks with orthogonal activation functions in control of dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolić, Saša S.; Antić, Dragan S.; Milojković, Marko T.; Milovanović, Miroslav B.; Perić, Staniša Lj.; Mitić, Darko B.

2016-04-01

In this article, we present a new method for the synthesis of almost and quasi-orthogonal polynomials of arbitrary order. Filters designed on the bases of these functions are generators of generalised quasi-orthogonal signals for which we derived and presented necessary mathematical background. Based on theoretical results, we designed and practically implemented generalised first-order (k = 1) quasi-orthogonal filter and proved its quasi-orthogonality via performed experiments. Designed filters can be applied in many scientific areas. In this article, generated functions were successfully implemented in Nonlinear Auto Regressive eXogenous (NARX) neural network as activation functions. One practical application of the designed orthogonal neural network is demonstrated through the example of control of the complex technical non-linear system - laboratory magnetic levitation system. Obtained results were compared with neural networks with standard activation functions and orthogonal functions of trigonometric shape. The proposed network demonstrated superiority over existing solutions in the sense of system performances.

Robust estimation for partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates

PubMed Central

Zhu, LiPing; Li, RunZe; Cui, HengJian

2014-01-01

We are concerned with robust estimation procedures to estimate the parameters in partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates. To enhance the interpretability, we suggest implementing a noncon-cave regularization method in the robust estimation procedure to select important covariates from the linear component. We establish the consistency for both the linear and the nonlinear components when the covariate dimension diverges at the rate of o(n), where n is the sample size. We show that the robust estimate of linear component performs asymptotically as well as its oracle counterpart which assumes the baseline function and the unimportant covariates were known a priori. With a consistent estimator of the linear component, we estimate the nonparametric component by a robust local linear regression. It is proved that the robust estimate of nonlinear component performs asymptotically as well as if the linear component were known in advance. Comprehensive simulation studies are carried out and an application is presented to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. PMID:24955087

Maximum Correntropy Unscented Kalman Filter for Spacecraft Relative State Estimation

PubMed Central

Liu, Xi; Qu, Hua; Zhao, Jihong; Yue, Pengcheng; Wang, Meng

2016-01-01

A new algorithm called maximum correntropy unscented Kalman filter (MCUKF) is proposed and applied to relative state estimation in space communication networks. As is well known, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) provides an efficient tool to solve the non-linear state estimate problem. However, the UKF usually plays well in Gaussian noises. Its performance may deteriorate substantially in the presence of non-Gaussian noises, especially when the measurements are disturbed by some heavy-tailed impulsive noises. By making use of the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC), the proposed algorithm can enhance the robustness of UKF against impulsive noises. In the MCUKF, the unscented transformation (UT) is applied to obtain a predicted state estimation and covariance matrix, and a nonlinear regression method with the MCC cost is then used to reformulate the measurement information. Finally, the UT is adopted to the measurement equation to obtain the filter state and covariance matrix. Illustrative examples demonstrate the superior performance of the new algorithm. PMID:27657069

Robust estimation for partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates.

PubMed

Zhu, LiPing; Li, RunZe; Cui, HengJian

2013-10-01

We are concerned with robust estimation procedures to estimate the parameters in partially linear models with large-dimensional covariates. To enhance the interpretability, we suggest implementing a noncon-cave regularization method in the robust estimation procedure to select important covariates from the linear component. We establish the consistency for both the linear and the nonlinear components when the covariate dimension diverges at the rate of [Formula: see text], where n is the sample size. We show that the robust estimate of linear component performs asymptotically as well as its oracle counterpart which assumes the baseline function and the unimportant covariates were known a priori. With a consistent estimator of the linear component, we estimate the nonparametric component by a robust local linear regression. It is proved that the robust estimate of nonlinear component performs asymptotically as well as if the linear component were known in advance. Comprehensive simulation studies are carried out and an application is presented to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures.

MATERNAL CHRONOLOGICAL AGE, PRENATAL AND PERINATAL HISTORY, SOCIAL SUPPORT, AND PARENTING OF INFANTS

PubMed Central

Bornstein, Marc H.; Putnick, Diane L.; Suwalsky, Joan T. D.; Gini, Motti

2018-01-01

The role of maternal chronological age in prenatal and perinatal history, social support, and parenting practices of new mothers (N = 335) was examined. Primiparas of 5-month-old infants ranged in age from 13 to 42 years. Age effects were zero, linear, and nonlinear. Nonlinear age effects were significantly associated up to a certain age with little or no association afterward; by spline regression, estimated points at which the slope of the regression line changed were 25 years for prenatal and perinatal history, 31 years for social supports, and 27 years for parenting practices. Given the expanding age range of first-time parents, these findings underscore the importance of incorporating maternal age as a factor in studies of parenting and child development. PMID:16942495

Multiple model self-tuning control for a class of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Miao; Wang, Xin; Wang, Zhenlei

2015-10-01

This study develops a novel nonlinear multiple model self-tuning control method for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems. An increment system model and a modified robust adaptive law are proposed to expand the application range, thus eliminating the assumption that either the nonlinear term of the nonlinear system or its differential term is global-bounded. The nonlinear self-tuning control method can address the situation wherein the nonlinear system is not subject to a globally uniformly asymptotically stable zero dynamics by incorporating the pole-placement scheme. A novel, nonlinear control structure based on this scheme is presented to improve control precision. Stability and convergence can be confirmed when the proposed multiple model self-tuning control method is applied. Furthermore, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

PREDICTION OF MALIGNANT BREAST LESIONS FROM MRI FEATURES: A COMPARISON OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION TECHNIQUES

PubMed Central

McLaren, Christine E.; Chen, Wen-Pin; Nie, Ke; Su, Min-Ying

2009-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) is a clinical imaging modality for detection and diagnosis of breast lesions. Analytical methods were compared for diagnostic feature selection and performance of lesion classification to differentiate between malignant and benign lesions in patients. Materials and Methods The study included 43 malignant and 28 benign histologically-proven lesions. Eight morphological parameters, ten gray level co-occurrence matrices (GLCM) texture features, and fourteen Laws’ texture features were obtained using automated lesion segmentation and quantitative feature extraction. Artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression analysis were compared for selection of the best predictors of malignant lesions among the normalized features. Results Using ANN, the final four selected features were compactness, energy, homogeneity, and Law_LS, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.82, and accuracy = 0.76. The diagnostic performance of these 4-features computed on the basis of logistic regression yielded AUC = 0.80 (95% CI, 0.688 to 0.905), similar to that of ANN. The analysis also shows that the odds of a malignant lesion decreased by 48% (95% CI, 25% to 92%) for every increase of 1 SD in the Law_LS feature, adjusted for differences in compactness, energy, and homogeneity. Using logistic regression with z-score transformation, a model comprised of compactness, NRL entropy, and gray level sum average was selected, and it had the highest overall accuracy of 0.75 among all models, with AUC = 0.77 (95% CI, 0.660 to 0.880). When logistic modeling of transformations using the Box-Cox method was performed, the most parsimonious model with predictors, compactness and Law_LS, had an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.672 to 0.898). Conclusion The diagnostic performance of models selected by ANN and logistic regression was similar. The analytic methods were found to be roughly equivalent in terms of predictive ability when a small number of variables were chosen. The robust ANN methodology utilizes a sophisticated non-linear model, while logistic regression analysis provides insightful information to enhance interpretation of the model features. PMID:19409817

A constructive nonlinear array (CNA) method for barely visible impact detection in composite materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malfense Fierro, Gian Piero; Meo, Michele

2017-04-01

Currently there are numerous phased array techniques such as Full Matrix Capture (FMC) and Total Focusing Method (TFM) that provide good damage assessment for composite materials. Although, linear methods struggle to evaluate and assess low levels of damage, while nonlinear methods have shown great promise in early damage detection. A sweep and subtraction evaluation method coupled with a constructive nonlinear array method (CNA) is proposed in order to assess damage specific nonlinearities, address issues with frequency selection when using nonlinear ultrasound imaging techniques and reduce equipment generated nonlinearities. These methods were evaluated using multiple excitation locations on an impacted composite panel with a complex damage (barely visible impact damage). According to various recent works, damage excitation can be accentuated by exciting at local defect resonance (LDR) frequencies; although these frequencies are not always easily determinable. The sweep methodology uses broadband excitation to determine both local defect and material resonances, by assessing local defect generated nonlinearities using a laser vibrometer it is possible to assess which frequencies excite the complex geometry of the crack. The dual effect of accurately determining local defect resonances, the use of an image subtraction method and the reduction of equipment based nonlinearities using CNA result in greater repeatability and clearer nonlinear imaging (NIM).

Smooth individual level covariates adjustment in disease mapping.

PubMed

Huque, Md Hamidul; Anderson, Craig; Walton, Richard; Woolford, Samuel; Ryan, Louise

2018-05-01

Spatial models for disease mapping should ideally account for covariates measured both at individual and area levels. The newly available "indiCAR" model fits the popular conditional autoregresssive (CAR) model by accommodating both individual and group level covariates while adjusting for spatial correlation in the disease rates. This algorithm has been shown to be effective but assumes log-linear associations between individual level covariates and outcome. In many studies, the relationship between individual level covariates and the outcome may be non-log-linear, and methods to track such nonlinearity between individual level covariate and outcome in spatial regression modeling are not well developed. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, smooth-indiCAR, to fit an extension to the popular conditional autoregresssive model that can accommodate both linear and nonlinear individual level covariate effects while adjusting for group level covariates and spatial correlation in the disease rates. In this formulation, the effect of a continuous individual level covariate is accommodated via penalized splines. We describe a two-step estimation procedure to obtain reliable estimates of individual and group level covariate effects where both individual and group level covariate effects are estimated separately. This distributed computing framework enhances its application in the Big Data domain with a large number of individual/group level covariates. We evaluate the performance of smooth-indiCAR through simulation. Our results indicate that the smooth-indiCAR method provides reliable estimates of all regression and random effect parameters. We illustrate our proposed methodology with an analysis of data on neutropenia admissions in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Online sparse Gaussian process based human motion intent learning for an electrically actuated lower extremity exoskeleton.

PubMed

Long, Yi; Du, Zhi-Jiang; Chen, Chao-Feng; Dong, Wei; Wang, Wei-Dong

2017-07-01

The most important step for lower extremity exoskeleton is to infer human motion intent (HMI), which contributes to achieve human exoskeleton collaboration. Since the user is in the control loop, the relationship between human robot interaction (HRI) information and HMI is nonlinear and complicated, which is difficult to be modeled by using mathematical approaches. The nonlinear approximation can be learned by using machine learning approaches. Gaussian Process (GP) regression is suitable for high-dimensional and small-sample nonlinear regression problems. GP regression is restrictive for large data sets due to its computation complexity. In this paper, an online sparse GP algorithm is constructed to learn the HMI. The original training dataset is collected when the user wears the exoskeleton system with friction compensation to perform unconstrained movement as far as possible. The dataset has two kinds of data, i.e., (1) physical HRI, which is collected by torque sensors placed at the interaction cuffs for the active joints, i.e., knee joints; (2) joint angular position, which is measured by optical position sensors. To reduce the computation complexity of GP, grey relational analysis (GRA) is utilized to specify the original dataset and provide the final training dataset. Those hyper-parameters are optimized offline by maximizing marginal likelihood and will be applied into online GP regression algorithm. The HMI, i.e., angular position of human joints, will be regarded as the reference trajectory for the mechanical legs. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, experiments are performed on a subject at a natural speed. The experimental results show the HMI can be obtained in real time, which can be extended and employed in the similar exoskeleton systems.

Modified Taylor series method for solving nonlinear differential equations with mixed boundary conditions defined on finite intervals.

PubMed

Vazquez-Leal, Hector; Benhammouda, Brahim; Filobello-Nino, Uriel Antonio; Sarmiento-Reyes, Arturo; Jimenez-Fernandez, Victor Manuel; Marin-Hernandez, Antonio; Herrera-May, Agustin Leobardo; Diaz-Sanchez, Alejandro; Huerta-Chua, Jesus

2014-01-01

In this article, we propose the application of a modified Taylor series method (MTSM) for the approximation of nonlinear problems described on finite intervals. The issue of Taylor series method with mixed boundary conditions is circumvented using shooting constants and extra derivatives of the problem. In order to show the benefits of this proposal, three different kinds of problems are solved: three-point boundary valued problem (BVP) of third-order with a hyperbolic sine nonlinearity, two-point BVP for a second-order nonlinear differential equation with an exponential nonlinearity, and a two-point BVP for a third-order nonlinear differential equation with a radical nonlinearity. The result shows that the MTSM method is capable to generate easily computable and highly accurate approximations for nonlinear equations. 34L30.

Development of a nonlinear vortex method. [steady and unsteady aerodynamic loads of highly sweptback wings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kandil, O. A.

1981-01-01

Progress is reported in the development of reliable nonlinear vortex methods for predicting the steady and unsteady aerodynamic loads of highly sweptback wings at large angles of attack. Abstracts of the papers, talks, and theses produced through this research are included. The modified nonlinear discrete vortex method and the nonlinear hybrid vortex method are highlighted.

Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Bayesian Nonparametric Regression and Topology Information.

PubMed

Fan, Yue; Wang, Xiao; Peng, Qinke

2017-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play an important role in cellular systems and are important for understanding biological processes. Many algorithms have been developed to infer the GRNs. However, most algorithms only pay attention to the gene expression data but do not consider the topology information in their inference process, while incorporating this information can partially compensate for the lack of reliable expression data. Here we develop a Bayesian group lasso with spike and slab priors to perform gene selection and estimation for nonparametric models. B-spline basis functions are used to capture the nonlinear relationships flexibly and penalties are used to avoid overfitting. Further, we incorporate the topology information into the Bayesian method as a prior. We present the application of our method on DREAM3 and DREAM4 datasets and two real biological datasets. The results show that our method performs better than existing methods and the topology information prior can improve the result.

Conditional parametric models for storm sewer runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonsdottir, H.; Nielsen, H. Aa; Madsen, H.; Eliasson, J.; Palsson, O. P.; Nielsen, M. K.

2007-05-01

The method of conditional parametric modeling is introduced for flow prediction in a sewage system. It is a well-known fact that in hydrological modeling the response (runoff) to input (precipitation) varies depending on soil moisture and several other factors. Consequently, nonlinear input-output models are needed. The model formulation described in this paper is similar to the traditional linear models like final impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive exogenous (ARX) except that the parameters vary as a function of some external variables. The parameter variation is modeled by local lines, using kernels for local linear regression. As such, the method might be referred to as a nearest neighbor method. The results achieved in this study were compared to results from the conventional linear methods, FIR and ARX. The increase in the coefficient of determination is substantial. Furthermore, the new approach conserves the mass balance better. Hence this new approach looks promising for various hydrological models and analysis.

Efficient numerical method for analyzing optical bistability in photonic crystal microcavities.

PubMed

Yuan, Lijun; Lu, Ya Yan

2013-05-20

Nonlinear optical effects can be enhanced by photonic crystal microcavities and be used to develop practical ultra-compact optical devices with low power requirements. The finite-difference time-domain method is the standard numerical method for simulating nonlinear optical devices, but it has limitations in terms of accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, a rigorous and efficient frequency-domain numerical method is developed for analyzing nonlinear optical devices where the nonlinear effect is concentrated in the microcavities. The method replaces the linear problem outside the microcavities by a rigorous and numerically computed boundary condition, then solves the nonlinear problem iteratively in a small region around the microcavities. Convergence of the iterative method is much easier to achieve since the size of the problem is significantly reduced. The method is presented for a specific two-dimensional photonic crystal waveguide-cavity system with a Kerr nonlinearity, using numerical methods that can take advantage of the geometric features of the structure. The method is able to calculate multiple solutions exhibiting the optical bistability phenomenon in the strongly nonlinear regime.

Spectrofluorimetric study of host-guest complexation of ibuprofen with β-cyclodextrin and its analytical application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzoori, Jamshid L.; Amjadi, Mohammad

2003-03-01

The characteristics of host-guest complexation between β-cyclodextrin (β-CD) and two forms of ibuprofen (protonated and deprotonated) were investigated by fluorescence spectrometry. 1:1 stoichiometries for both complexes were established and their association constants at different temperatures were calculated by applying a non-linear regression method to the change in the fluorescence of ibuprofen that brought about by the presence of β-CD. The thermodynamic parameters (Δ H, Δ S and Δ G) associated with the inclusion process were also determined. Based on the obtained results, a sensitive spectrofluorimetric method for the determination of ibuprofen was developed with a linear range of 0.1-2 μg ml -1 and a detection limit of 0.03 μg ml -1. The method was applied satisfactorily to the determination of ibuprofen in pharmaceutical preparations.

Determining association constants from titration experiments in supramolecular chemistry.

PubMed

Thordarson, Pall

2011-03-01

The most common approach for quantifying interactions in supramolecular chemistry is a titration of the guest to solution of the host, noting the changes in some physical property through NMR, UV-Vis, fluorescence or other techniques. Despite the apparent simplicity of this approach, there are several issues that need to be carefully addressed to ensure that the final results are reliable. This includes the use of non-linear rather than linear regression methods, careful choice of stoichiometric binding model, the choice of method (e.g., NMR vs. UV-Vis) and concentration of host, the application of advanced data analysis methods such as global analysis and finally the estimation of uncertainties and confidence intervals for the results obtained. This tutorial review will give a systematic overview of all these issues-highlighting some of the key messages herein with simulated data analysis examples.

Machine learning approaches to the social determinants of health in the health and retirement study.

PubMed

Seligman, Benjamin; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Rehkopf, David

2018-04-01

Social and economic factors are important predictors of health and of recognized importance for health systems. However, machine learning, used elsewhere in the biomedical literature, has not been extensively applied to study relationships between society and health. We investigate how machine learning may add to our understanding of social determinants of health using data from the Health and Retirement Study. A linear regression of age and gender, and a parsimonious theory-based regression additionally incorporating income, wealth, and education, were used to predict systolic blood pressure, body mass index, waist circumference, and telomere length. Prediction, fit, and interpretability were compared across four machine learning methods: linear regression, penalized regressions, random forests, and neural networks. All models had poor out-of-sample prediction. Most machine learning models performed similarly to the simpler models. However, neural networks greatly outperformed the three other methods. Neural networks also had good fit to the data ( R 2 between 0.4-0.6, versus <0.3 for all others). Across machine learning models, nine variables were frequently selected or highly weighted as predictors: dental visits, current smoking, self-rated health, serial-seven subtractions, probability of receiving an inheritance, probability of leaving an inheritance of at least $10,000, number of children ever born, African-American race, and gender. Some of the machine learning methods do not improve prediction or fit beyond simpler models, however, neural networks performed well. The predictors identified across models suggest underlying social factors that are important predictors of biological indicators of chronic disease, and that the non-linear and interactive relationships between variables fundamental to the neural network approach may be important to consider.

Finite difference time domain calculation of transients in antennas with nonlinear loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luebbers, Raymond J.; Beggs, John H.; Kunz, Karl S.; Chamberlin, Kent

1991-01-01

Determining transient electromagnetic fields in antennas with nonlinear loads is a challenging problem. Typical methods used involve calculating frequency domain parameters at a large number of different frequencies, then applying Fourier transform methods plus nonlinear equation solution techniques. If the antenna is simple enough so that the open circuit time domain voltage can be determined independently of the effects of the nonlinear load on the antennas current, time stepping methods can be applied in a straightforward way. Here, transient fields for antennas with more general geometries are calculated directly using Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) methods. In each FDTD cell which contains a nonlinear load, a nonlinear equation is solved at each time step. As a test case, the transient current in a long dipole antenna with a nonlinear load excited by a pulsed plane wave is computed using this approach. The results agree well with both calculated and measured results previously published. The approach given here extends the applicability of the FDTD method to problems involving scattering from targets, including nonlinear loads and materials, and to coupling between antennas containing nonlinear loads. It may also be extended to propagation through nonlinear materials.

Considerations for analysis of time-to-event outcomes measured with error: Bias and correction with SIMEX.

PubMed

Oh, Eric J; Shepherd, Bryan E; Lumley, Thomas; Shaw, Pamela A

2018-04-15

For time-to-event outcomes, a rich literature exists on the bias introduced by covariate measurement error in regression models, such as the Cox model, and methods of analysis to address this bias. By comparison, less attention has been given to understanding the impact or addressing errors in the failure time outcome. For many diseases, the timing of an event of interest (such as progression-free survival or time to AIDS progression) can be difficult to assess or reliant on self-report and therefore prone to measurement error. For linear models, it is well known that random errors in the outcome variable do not bias regression estimates. With nonlinear models, however, even random error or misclassification can introduce bias into estimated parameters. We compare the performance of 2 common regression models, the Cox and Weibull models, in the setting of measurement error in the failure time outcome. We introduce an extension of the SIMEX method to correct for bias in hazard ratio estimates from the Cox model and discuss other analysis options to address measurement error in the response. A formula to estimate the bias induced into the hazard ratio by classical measurement error in the event time for a log-linear survival model is presented. Detailed numerical studies are presented to examine the performance of the proposed SIMEX method under varying levels and parametric forms of the error in the outcome. We further illustrate the method with observational data on HIV outcomes from the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparison of non-parametric techniques to estimate incident photosynthetically active radiation from MODIS for monitoring primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. G. L.; He, T.; Liang, S.

2016-12-01

Satellite-derived estimates of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) can be used to monitor global change, are required by most terrestrial ecosystem models, and can be used to estimate primary production according to the theory of light use efficiency. Compared with parametric approaches, non-parametric techniques that include an artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine regression (SVM), an artificial bee colony (ABC), and a look-up table (LUT) do not require many ancillary data as inputs for the estimation of PAR from satellite data. In this study, a selection of machine learning methods to estimate PAR from MODIS top of atmosphere (TOA) radiances are compared to a LUT approach to determine which techniques might best handle the nonlinear relationship between TOA radiance and incident PAR. Evaluation of these methods (ANN, SVM, and LUT) is performed with ground measurements at seven SURFRAD sites. Due to the design of the ANN, it can handle the nonlinear relationship between TOA radiance and PAR better than linearly interpolating between the values in the LUT; however, training the ANN has to be carried out on an angular-bin basis, which results in a LUT of ANNs. The SVM model may be better for incorporating multiple viewing angles than the ANN; however, both techniques require a large amount of training data, which may introduce a regional bias based on where the most training and validation data are available. Based on the literature, the ABC is a promising alternative to an ANN, SVM regression and a LUT, but further development for this application is required before concrete conclusions can be drawn. For now, the LUT method outperforms the machine-learning techniques, but future work should be directed at developing and testing the ABC method. A simple, robust method to estimate direct and diffuse incident PAR, with minimal inputs and a priori knowledge, would be very useful for monitoring global change of primary production, particularly of pastures and rangeland, which have implications for livestock and food security. Future work will delve deeper into the utility of satellite-derived PAR estimation for monitoring primary production in pasture and rangelands.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.

2016-01-01

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

Guided wave methods and apparatus for nonlinear frequency generation

DOEpatents

Durfee, III, Charles G.; Rundquist, Andrew; Kapteyn, Henry C.; Murnane, Margaret M.

2000-01-01

Methods and apparatus are disclosed for the nonlinear generation of sum and difference frequencies of electromagnetic radiation propagating in a nonlinear material. A waveguide having a waveguide cavity contains the nonlinear material. Phase matching of the nonlinear generation is obtained by adjusting a waveguide propagation constant, the refractive index of the nonlinear material, or the waveguide mode in which the radiation propagates. Phase matching can be achieved even in isotropic nonlinear materials. A short-wavelength radiation source uses phase-matched nonlinear generation in a waveguide to produce high harmonics of a pulsed laser.

Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-09-01

Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

Differences in Risk Factors for Rotator Cuff Tears between Elderly Patients and Young Patients.

PubMed

Watanabe, Akihisa; Ono, Qana; Nishigami, Tomohiko; Hirooka, Takahiko; Machida, Hirohisa

2018-02-01

It has been unclear whether the risk factors for rotator cuff tears are the same at all ages or differ between young and older populations. In this study, we examined the risk factors for rotator cuff tears using classification and regression tree analysis as methods of nonlinear regression analysis. There were 65 patients in the rotator cuff tears group and 45 patients in the intact rotator cuff group. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed to predict rotator cuff tears. The target factor was rotator cuff tears; explanatory variables were age, sex, trauma, and critical shoulder angle≥35°. In the results of classification and regression tree analysis, the tree was divided at age 64. For patients aged≥64, the tree was divided at trauma. For patients aged<64, the tree was divided at critical shoulder angle≥35°. The odds ratio for critical shoulder angle≥35° was significant for all ages (5.89), and for patients aged<64 (10.3) while trauma was only a significant factor for patients aged≥64 (5.13). Age, trauma, and critical shoulder angle≥35° were related to rotator cuff tears in this study. However, these risk factors showed different trends according to age group, not a linear relationship.

Binding affinity toward human prion protein of some anti-prion compounds - Assessment based on QSAR modeling, molecular docking and non-parametric ranking.

PubMed

Kovačević, Strahinja; Karadžić, Milica; Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Sanja; Jevrić, Lidija

2018-01-01

The present study is based on the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis of binding affinity toward human prion protein (huPrP C ) of quinacrine, pyridine dicarbonitrile, diphenylthiazole and diphenyloxazole analogs applying different linear and non-linear chemometric regression techniques, including univariate linear regression, multiple linear regression, partial least squares regression and artificial neural networks. The QSAR analysis distinguished molecular lipophilicity as an important factor that contributes to the binding affinity. Principal component analysis was used in order to reveal similarities or dissimilarities among the studied compounds. The analysis of in silico absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADMET) parameters was conducted. The ranking of the studied analogs on the basis of their ADMET parameters was done applying the sum of ranking differences, as a relatively new chemometric method. The main aim of the study was to reveal the most important molecular features whose changes lead to the changes in the binding affinities of the studied compounds. Another point of view on the binding affinity of the most promising analogs was established by application of molecular docking analysis. The results of the molecular docking were proven to be in agreement with the experimental outcome. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship.

Fundamental Analysis of the Linear Multiple Regression Technique for Quantification of Water Quality Parameters from Remote Sensing Data. Ph.D. Thesis - Old Dominion Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, C. H., III

1977-01-01

Constituents with linear radiance gradients with concentration may be quantified from signals which contain nonlinear atmospheric and surface reflection effects for both homogeneous and non-homogeneous water bodies provided accurate data can be obtained and nonlinearities are constant with wavelength. Statistical parameters must be used which give an indication of bias as well as total squared error to insure that an equation with an optimum combination of bands is selected. It is concluded that the effect of error in upwelled radiance measurements is to reduce the accuracy of the least square fitting process and to increase the number of points required to obtain a satisfactory fit. The problem of obtaining a multiple regression equation that is extremely sensitive to error is discussed.

Detectability of the impacts of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases upon stratospheric ozone accounting for nonlinearities in historical forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandoro, Justin; Solomon, Susan; Santer, Benjamin D.; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Mills, Michael J.

2018-01-01

We perform a formal attribution study of upper- and lower-stratospheric ozone changes using observations together with simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Historical model simulations were used to estimate the zonal-mean response patterns (fingerprints) to combined forcing by ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), as well as to the individual forcing by each factor. Trends in the similarity between the searched-for fingerprints and homogenized observations of stratospheric ozone were compared to trends in pattern similarity between the fingerprints and the internally and naturally generated variability inferred from long control runs. This yields estimated signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios for each of the three fingerprints (ODS, GHG, and ODS + GHG). In both the upper stratosphere (defined in this paper as 1 to 10 hPa) and lower stratosphere (40 to 100 hPa), the spatial fingerprints of the ODS + GHG and ODS-only patterns were consistently detectable not only during the era of maximum ozone depletion but also throughout the observational record (1984-2016). We also develop a fingerprint attribution method to account for forcings whose time evolutions are markedly nonlinear over the observational record. When the nonlinearity of the time evolution of the ODS and ODS + GHG signals is accounted for, we find that the S/N ratios obtained with the stratospheric ODS and ODS + GHG fingerprints are enhanced relative to standard linear trend analysis. Use of the nonlinear signal detection method also reduces the detection time - the estimate of the date at which ODS and GHG impacts on ozone can be formally identified. Furthermore, by explicitly considering nonlinear signal evolution, the complete observational record can be used in the S/N analysis, without applying piecewise linear regression and introducing arbitrary break points. The GHG-driven fingerprint of ozone changes was not statistically identifiable in either the upper- or lower-stratospheric SWOOSH data, irrespective of the signal detection method used. In the WACCM simulations of future climate change, the GHG signal is statistically identifiable between 2020 and 2030. Our findings demonstrate the importance of continued stratospheric ozone monitoring to improve estimates of the contributions of ODS and GHG forcing to global changes in stratospheric ozone.

Solar cycle in current reanalyses: (non)linear attribution study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchar, A.; Sacha, P.; Miksovsky, J.; Pisoft, P.

2014-12-01

This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulation characteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to the influence of the 11 year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysis using multiple nonlinear techniques (Support Vector Regression, Neural Networks) besides the traditional linear approach. The analysis was applied to several current reanalysis datasets for the 1979-2013 period, including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how this type of data resolves especially the double-peaked solar response in temperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by these anomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the lower and upper stratosphere were found to be sufficiently robust and in qualitative agreement with previous observational studies. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observed double-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Consequently the results obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinear approach through all datasets, suggesting that linear regression is a relevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal dependence of the solar response was also discussed, mainly as a source of dynamical causalities in the wave propagation characteristics in the zonal wind and the induced meridional circulation in the winter hemispheres. The hypothetical mechanism of a weaker Brewer Dobson circulation was reviewed together with discussion of polar vortex stability.

Identification of an internal combustion engine model by nonlinear multi-input multi-output system identification. Ph.D. Thesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luh, G.C.

1994-01-01

This thesis presents the application of advanced modeling techniques to construct nonlinear forward and inverse models of internal combustion engines for the detection and isolation of incipient faults. The NARMAX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Moving Average modeling with eXogenous inputs) technique of system identification proposed by Leontaritis and Billings was used to derive the nonlinear model of a internal combustion engine, over operating conditions corresponding to the I/M240 cycle. The I/M240 cycle is a standard proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency to measure tailpipe emissions in inspection and maintenance programs and consists of a driving schedule developed for the purposemore » of testing compliance with federal vehicle emission standards for carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides. The experimental work for model identification and validation was performed on a 3.0 liter V6 engine installed in an engine test cell at the Center for Automotive Research at The Ohio State University. In this thesis, different types of model structures were proposed to obtain multi-input multi-output (MIMO) nonlinear NARX models. A modification of the algorithm proposed by He and Asada was used to estimate the robust orders of the derived MIMO nonlinear models. A methodology for the analysis of inverse NARX model was developed. Two methods were proposed to derive the inverse NARX model: (1) inversion from the forward NARX model; and (2) direct identification of inverse model from the output-input data set. In this thesis, invertibility, minimum-phase characteristic of zero dynamics, and stability analysis of NARX forward model are also discussed. Stability in the sense of Lyapunov is also investigated to check the stability of the identified forward and inverse models. This application of inverse problem leads to the estimation of unknown inputs and to actuator fault diagnosis.« less

Measuring Multi-Joint Stiffness during Single Movements: Numerical Validation of a Novel Time-Frequency Approach

PubMed Central

Piovesan, Davide; Pierobon, Alberto; DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R.

2012-01-01

This study presents and validates a Time-Frequency technique for measuring 2-dimensional multijoint arm stiffness throughout a single planar movement as well as during static posture. It is proposed as an alternative to current regressive methods which require numerous repetitions to obtain average stiffness on a small segment of the hand trajectory. The method is based on the analysis of the reassigned spectrogram of the arm's response to impulsive perturbations and can estimate arm stiffness on a trial-by-trial basis. Analytic and empirical methods are first derived and tested through modal analysis on synthetic data. The technique's accuracy and robustness are assessed by modeling the estimation of stiffness time profiles changing at different rates and affected by different noise levels. Our method obtains results comparable with two well-known regressive techniques. We also test how the technique can identify the viscoelastic component of non-linear and higher than second order systems with a non-parametrical approach. The technique proposed here is very impervious to noise and can be used easily for both postural and movement tasks. Estimations of stiffness profiles are possible with only one perturbation, making our method a useful tool for estimating limb stiffness during motor learning and adaptation tasks, and for understanding the modulation of stiffness in individuals with neurodegenerative diseases. PMID:22448233

What automated age estimation of hand and wrist MRI data tells us about skeletal maturation in male adolescents.

PubMed

Urschler, Martin; Grassegger, Sabine; Štern, Darko

2015-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is important in human biology and has various medical and forensic applications. Recent interest in MR-based methods aims to investigate alternatives for established methods involving ionising radiation. Automatic, software-based methods additionally promise improved estimation objectivity. To investigate how informative automatically selected image features are regarding their ability to discriminate age, by exploring a recently proposed software-based age estimation method for MR images of the left hand and wrist. One hundred and two MR datasets of left hand images are used to evaluate age estimation performance, consisting of bone and epiphyseal gap volume localisation, computation of one age regression model per bone mapping image features to age and fusion of individual bone age predictions to a final age estimate. Quantitative results of the software-based method show an age estimation performance with a mean absolute difference of 0.85 years (SD = 0.58 years) to chronological age, as determined by a cross-validation experiment. Qualitatively, it is demonstrated how feature selection works and which image features of skeletal maturation are automatically chosen to model the non-linear regression function. Feasibility of automatic age estimation based on MRI data is shown and selected image features are found to be informative for describing anatomical changes during physical maturation in male adolescents.

An Optimization-Based Method for Feature Ranking in Nonlinear Regression Problems.

PubMed

Bravi, Luca; Piccialli, Veronica; Sciandrone, Marco

2017-04-01

In this paper, we consider the feature ranking problem, where, given a set of training instances, the task is to associate a score with the features in order to assess their relevance. Feature ranking is a very important tool for decision support systems, and may be used as an auxiliary step of feature selection to reduce the high dimensionality of real-world data. We focus on regression problems by assuming that the process underlying the generated data can be approximated by a continuous function (for instance, a feedforward neural network). We formally state the notion of relevance of a feature by introducing a minimum zero-norm inversion problem of a neural network, which is a nonsmooth, constrained optimization problem. We employ a concave approximation of the zero-norm function, and we define a smooth, global optimization problem to be solved in order to assess the relevance of the features. We present the new feature ranking method based on the solution of instances of the global optimization problem depending on the available training data. Computational experiments on both artificial and real data sets are performed, and point out that the proposed feature ranking method is a valid alternative to existing methods in terms of effectiveness. The obtained results also show that the method is costly in terms of CPU time, and this may be a limitation in the solution of large-dimensional problems.

QSPR using MOLGEN-QSPR: the challenge of fluoroalkane boiling points.

PubMed

Rücker, Christoph; Meringer, Markus; Kerber, Adalbert

2005-01-01

By means of the new software MOLGEN-QSPR, a multilinear regression model for the boiling points of lower fluoroalkanes is established. The model is based exclusively on simple descriptors derived directly from molecular structure and nevertheless describes a broader set of data more precisely than previous attempts that used either more demanding (quantum chemical) descriptors or more demanding (nonlinear) statistical methods such as neural networks. The model's internal consistency was confirmed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The model was used to predict all unknown boiling points of fluorobutanes, and the quality of predictions was estimated by means of comparison with boiling point predictions for fluoropentanes.

Electrochemical Impedance Imaging via the Distribution of Diffusion Times.

PubMed

Song, Juhyun; Bazant, Martin Z

2018-03-16

We develop a mathematical framework to analyze electrochemical impedance spectra in terms of a distribution of diffusion times (DDT) for a parallel array of random finite-length Warburg (diffusion) or Gerischer (reaction-diffusion) circuit elements. A robust DDT inversion method is presented based on complex nonlinear least squares regression with Tikhonov regularization and illustrated for three cases of nanostructured electrodes for energy conversion: (i) a carbon nanotube supercapacitor, (ii) a silicon nanowire Li-ion battery, and (iii) a porous-carbon vanadium flow battery. The results demonstrate the feasibility of nondestructive "impedance imaging" to infer microstructural statistics of random, heterogeneous materials.

Biophysical Aspects of Cyclodextrin Interaction with Paraoxon

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-19

Rockville, MD, USA article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. 1 1 1 Figure 2. NMR analysis of paraoxon (PX) and β-CD...interaction. Job’s plot analysis (continuous variation method) was performed for β-CD H1’, H2’, and H4’ protons and is shown in a–c respectively. The PX...resonances analyzed using nonlinear regression analysis for a. H1’, b. H2’, c. H5’, d. H2 H8, and e. H3 H5. S.-D. Soni, J. B. Bhonsle and G. E. Garcia

Two papers on feed-forward networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Weigend, Andreas S.

1991-01-01

Connectionist feed-forward networks, trained with back-propagation, can be used both for nonlinear regression and for (discrete one-of-C) classification, depending on the form of training. This report contains two papers on feed-forward networks. The papers can be read independently. They are intended for the theoretically-aware practitioner or algorithm-designer; however, they also contain a review and comparison of several learning theories so they provide a perspective for the theoretician. The first paper works through Bayesian methods to complement back-propagation in the training of feed-forward networks. The second paper addresses a problem raised by the first: how to efficiently calculate second derivatives on feed-forward networks.

Estimating procedure times for surgeries by determining location parameters for the lognormal model.

PubMed

Spangler, William E; Strum, David P; Vargas, Luis G; May, Jerrold H

2004-05-01

We present an empirical study of methods for estimating the location parameter of the lognormal distribution. Our results identify the best order statistic to use, and indicate that using the best order statistic instead of the median may lead to less frequent incorrect rejection of the lognormal model, more accurate critical value estimates, and higher goodness-of-fit. Using simulation data, we constructed and compared two models for identifying the best order statistic, one based on conventional nonlinear regression and the other using a data mining/machine learning technique. Better surgical procedure time estimates may lead to improved surgical operations.

Modelling daily water temperature from air temperature for the Missouri River.

PubMed

Zhu, Senlin; Nyarko, Emmanuel Karlo; Hadzima-Nyarko, Marijana

2018-01-01

The bio-chemical and physical characteristics of a river are directly affected by water temperature, which thereby affects the overall health of aquatic ecosystems. It is a complex problem to accurately estimate water temperature. Modelling of river water temperature is usually based on a suitable mathematical model and field measurements of various atmospheric factors. In this article, the air-water temperature relationship of the Missouri River is investigated by developing three different machine learning models (Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Bootstrap Aggregated Decision Trees (BA-DT)). Standard models (linear regression, non-linear regression, and stochastic models) are also developed and compared to machine learning models. Analyzing the three standard models, the stochastic model clearly outperforms the standard linear model and nonlinear model. All the three machine learning models have comparable results and outperform the stochastic model, with GPR having slightly better results for stations No. 2 and 3, while BA-DT has slightly better results for station No. 1. The machine learning models are very effective tools which can be used for the prediction of daily river temperature.

The nonlinear relations of the approximate number system and mathematical language to early mathematics development.

PubMed

Purpura, David J; Logan, Jessica A R

2015-12-01

Both mathematical language and the approximate number system (ANS) have been identified as strong predictors of early mathematics performance. Yet, these relations may be different depending on a child's developmental level. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relations between these domains across different levels of ability. Participants included 114 children who were assessed in the fall and spring of preschool on a battery of academic and cognitive tasks. Children were 3.12 to 5.26 years old (M = 4.18, SD = .58) and 53.6% were girls. Both mixed-effect and quantile regressions were conducted. The mixed-effect regressions indicated that mathematical language, but not the ANS, nor other cognitive domains, predicted mathematics performance. However, the quantile regression analyses revealed a more nuanced relation among domains. Specifically, it was found that mathematical language and the ANS predicted mathematical performance at different points on the ability continuum. These dual nonlinear relations indicate that different mechanisms may enhance mathematical acquisition dependent on children's developmental abilities. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Film thickness measurement based on nonlinear phase analysis using a Linnik microscopic white-light spectral interferometer.

PubMed

Guo, Tong; Chen, Zhuo; Li, Minghui; Wu, Juhong; Fu, Xing; Hu, Xiaotang

2018-04-20

Based on white-light spectral interferometry and the Linnik microscopic interference configuration, the nonlinear phase components of the spectral interferometric signal were analyzed for film thickness measurement. The spectral interferometric signal was obtained using a Linnik microscopic white-light spectral interferometer, which includes the nonlinear phase components associated with the effective thickness, the nonlinear phase error caused by the double-objective lens, and the nonlinear phase of the thin film itself. To determine the influence of the effective thickness, a wavelength-correction method was proposed that converts the effective thickness into a constant value; the nonlinear phase caused by the effective thickness can then be determined and subtracted from the total nonlinear phase. A method for the extraction of the nonlinear phase error caused by the double-objective lens was also proposed. Accurate thickness measurement of a thin film can be achieved by fitting the nonlinear phase of the thin film after removal of the nonlinear phase caused by the effective thickness and by the nonlinear phase error caused by the double-objective lens. The experimental results demonstrated that both the wavelength-correction method and the extraction method for the nonlinear phase error caused by the double-objective lens improve the accuracy of film thickness measurements.

Nonlinear and Synchronous Dissolved Organic Matter Dynamics in Streams Across an Agriculture Land Use and Climate Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xenopoulos, M. A.; Vogt, R. J.

2014-12-01

There is now increasing evidence that non-linearity is a common response in ecological systems to pressures caused by human activities. There is also increasing evidence that exogenous environmental drivers, such as climate, induce spatial and temporal synchrony in a wide range of ecological variables. Using Moran's I and Pearson's correlation, we quantified the synchrony of dissolved organic carbon concentration (DOC) and quality (DOM; e.g., specific UV absorbance, Fluorescence Index, PARAFAC), nutrients, discharge and temperature in 40 streams that span an agriculture gradient (0 to >70% cropland), over 10 years. We then used breakpoint regression, 2D-Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and significant zero crossings (SiZer) analyses to quantify the prevalence of nonlinearity and ecological thresholds (breakpoints) where applicable. There was a high degree of synchrony in DOM quality (r > 0.7) but not DOC (r < 0.4). The degree of synchrony was driven in part by the catchment's land use. With respect to the nonlinear analyses we found non-linearity in ~50% of bivariate datasets analyzed. Non-linearity was also driven in part by the catchment's land use. Breakpoints defined different DOM properties. Nonlinearity and synchronous behaviour in DOM are intimately linked to land use.

A new approach to assess COPD by identifying lung function break-points

PubMed Central

Eriksson, Göran; Jarenbäck, Linnea; Peterson, Stefan; Ankerst, Jaro; Bjermer, Leif; Tufvesson, Ellen

2015-01-01

Purpose COPD is a progressive disease, which can take different routes, leading to great heterogeneity. The aim of the post-hoc analysis reported here was to perform continuous analyses of advanced lung function measurements, using linear and nonlinear regressions. Patients and methods Fifty-one COPD patients with mild to very severe disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] Stages I–IV) and 41 healthy smokers were investigated post-bronchodilation by flow-volume spirometry, body plethysmography, diffusion capacity testing, and impulse oscillometry. The relationship between COPD severity, based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and different lung function parameters was analyzed by flexible nonparametric method, linear regression, and segmented linear regression with break-points. Results Most lung function parameters were nonlinear in relation to spirometric severity. Parameters related to volume (residual volume, functional residual capacity, total lung capacity, diffusion capacity [diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide], diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide/alveolar volume) and reactance (reactance area and reactance at 5Hz) were segmented with break-points at 60%–70% of FEV1. FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) and resonance frequency had break-points around 80% of FEV1, while many resistance parameters had break-points below 40%. The slopes in percent predicted differed; resistance at 5 Hz minus resistance at 20 Hz had a linear slope change of −5.3 per unit FEV1, while residual volume had no slope change above and −3.3 change per unit FEV1 below its break-point of 61%. Conclusion Continuous analyses of different lung function parameters over the spirometric COPD severity range gave valuable information additional to categorical analyses. Parameters related to volume, diffusion capacity, and reactance showed break-points around 65% of FEV1, indicating that air trapping starts to dominate in moderate COPD (FEV1 =50%–80%). This may have an impact on the patient’s management plan and selection of patients and/or outcomes in clinical research. PMID:26508849

The Nonlinear Steepest Descent Method to Long-Time Asymptotics of the Coupled Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Xianguo; Liu, Huan

2018-04-01

The Riemann-Hilbert problem for the coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation is formulated on the basis of the corresponding 3× 3 matrix spectral problem. Using the nonlinear steepest descent method, we obtain leading-order asymptotics for the Cauchy problem of the coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation.

FRF decoupling of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalaycıoğlu, Taner; Özgüven, H. Nevzat

2018-03-01

Structural decoupling problem, i.e. predicting dynamic behavior of a particular substructure from the knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled structure and the other substructure, has been well investigated for three decades and led to several decoupling methods. In spite of the inherent nonlinearities in a structural system in various forms such as clearances, friction and nonlinear stiffness, all decoupling studies are for linear systems. In this study, decoupling problem for nonlinear systems is addressed for the first time. A method, named as FRF Decoupling Method for Nonlinear Systems (FDM-NS), is proposed for calculating FRFs of a substructure decoupled from a coupled nonlinear structure where nonlinearity can be modeled as a single nonlinear element. Depending on where nonlinear element is, i.e., either in the known or unknown subsystem, or at the connection point, the formulation differs. The method requires relative displacement information between two end points of the nonlinear element, in addition to point and transfer FRFs at some points of the known subsystem. However, it is not necessary to excite the system from the unknown subsystem even when the nonlinear element is in that subsystem. The validation of FDM-NS is demonstrated with two different case studies using nonlinear lumped parameter systems. Finally, a nonlinear experimental test structure is used in order to show the real-life application and accuracy of FDM-NS.

Application of the nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to study racial/ethnic disparities in antiobesity medication use in the United States.

PubMed

Mehta, Hemalkumar B; Rajan, Suja S; Aparasu, Rajender R; Johnson, Michael L

2013-01-01

The nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition method is gaining popularity in health services research because of its ability to explain disparity issues. The present study demonstrates the use of this method for categorical variables by addressing antiobesity medication use disparity. To examine racial/ethnic disparity in antiobesity medication use and to quantify the observed factor contribution behind the disparity using the nonlinear BO decomposition. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, 2002-2007, were used in this retrospective cross-sectional study. Adults with body mass index (BMI) >30, or BMI ≥27 and comorbidities such as hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, or hyperlipidemia were included in the cohort (N=65,886,625). Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine racial/ethnic disparity in antiobesity medication use controlling for predisposing, enabling, and need factors. The nonlinear BO decomposition was used to identify the contribution of each predisposing, enabling, and need factors in explaining the racial/ethnic disparity and to estimate the residual unexplained disparity. Non-Hispanic Blacks were 46% (odds ratio [OR]: 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.83) less likely to use antiobesity drugs compared with non-Hispanic Whites, whereas no difference was observed between Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites. A 0.22 percentage point of disparity existed between non-Hispanic Whites and Blacks. The nonlinear BO decomposition estimated a decomposition coefficient of -0.0013 indicating that the observed disparity would have been 58% higher (-0.0013/0.0022) if non-Hispanic Blacks had similar observed characteristics as non-Hispanic Whites. Age, gender, marital status, region, and BMI were significant factors in the decomposition model; only marital status explained the racial/ethnic disparity among all observed characteristics. The study revealed that differences in the predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics (except marital status) did not successfully explain the racial/ethnic disparity in antiobesity medication use. Further studies examining racial/ethnic differences in individual beliefs, behavioral patterns, and provider prescription patterns are vital to understand these disparities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error

PubMed Central

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2014-01-01

In this paper, we study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from limitations in resolving the smaller scale processes. In particular, the analysis assumes the availability of continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables. Mathematically, this paper presents new results on higher order asymptotic expansion of the first two moments of a conditional measure. In particular, we are interested in the application of filtering multiscale problems in which the conditional distribution is defined over the slow variables, given noisy observation of the slow variables alone. From the mathematical analysis, we learn that for a continuous time linear model with Gaussian noise, there exists a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables which gives the optimal filtering when only the slow variables are observed. Moreover, these parameters simultaneously give the optimal equilibrium statistical estimates of the underlying system, and as a consequence they can be estimated offline from the equilibrium statistics of the true signal. By examining a nonlinear test model, we show that the linear theory extends in this non-Gaussian, nonlinear configuration as long as we know the optimal stochastic parametrization and the correct observation model. However, when the stochastic parametrization model is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa; this finding is based on analytical and numerical results on our nonlinear test model and the two-layer Lorenz-96 model. Finally, even when the correct stochastic ansatz is given, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that the parameters estimated online, as part of a filtering procedure, simultaneously produce accurate filtering and equilibrium statistical prediction. In contrast, an offline estimation technique based on a linear regression, which fits the parameters to a training dataset without using the filter, yields filter estimates which are worse than the observations or even divergent when the slow variables are not fully observed. This finding does not imply that all offline methods are inherently inferior to the online method for nonlinear estimation problems, it only suggests that an ideal estimation technique should estimate all parameters simultaneously whether it is online or offline. PMID:25002829

Error Rates Resulting From Anemia Can Be Corrected in Multiple Commonly Used Point of Care Glucometers

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

strategies, increasing the prevalence of both hypoglycemia and anemia in the ICU.14–20 The change in allogeneic blood transfusion practices occurred in...measurements in samples with low HCT levels.4,5,7,8,12 The error occurs because de- creased red blood cell causes less displacement of plasma, resulting...Nonlinear component regression was performed be- cause HCT has a nonlinear effect on accuracy of POC glucometers. A dual parameter correction factor was

PharmML in Action: an Interoperable Language for Modeling and Simulation

PubMed Central

Bizzotto, R; Smith, G; Yvon, F; Kristensen, NR; Swat, MJ

2017-01-01

PharmML1 is an XML‐based exchange format2, 3, 4 created with a focus on nonlinear mixed‐effect (NLME) models used in pharmacometrics,5, 6 but providing a very general framework that also allows describing mathematical and statistical models such as single‐subject or nonlinear and multivariate regression models. This tutorial provides an overview of the structure of this language, brief suggestions on how to work with it, and use cases demonstrating its power and flexibility. PMID:28575551

Solution of a few nonlinear problems in aerodynamics by the finite elements and functional least squares methods. Ph.D. Thesis - Paris Univ.; [mathematical models of transonic flow using nonlinear equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Periaux, J.

1979-01-01

The numerical simulation of the transonic flows of idealized fluids and of incompressible viscous fluids, by the nonlinear least squares methods is presented. The nonlinear equations, the boundary conditions, and the various constraints controlling the two types of flow are described. The standard iterative methods for solving a quasi elliptical nonlinear equation with partial derivatives are reviewed with emphasis placed on two examples: the fixed point method applied to the Gelder functional in the case of compressible subsonic flows and the Newton method used in the technique of decomposition of the lifting potential. The new abstract least squares method is discussed. It consists of substituting the nonlinear equation by a problem of minimization in a H to the minus 1 type Sobolev functional space.

A data-driven dynamics simulation framework for railway vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Yinyu; Tang, Zhao; Liu, Fengjia; Chang, Jian; Zhang, Jianjun

2018-03-01

The finite element (FE) method is essential for simulating vehicle dynamics with fine details, especially for train crash simulations. However, factors such as the complexity of meshes and the distortion involved in a large deformation would undermine its calculation efficiency. An alternative method, the multi-body (MB) dynamics simulation provides satisfying time efficiency but limited accuracy when highly nonlinear dynamic process is involved. To maintain the advantages of both methods, this paper proposes a data-driven simulation framework for dynamics simulation of railway vehicles. This framework uses machine learning techniques to extract nonlinear features from training data generated by FE simulations so that specific mesh structures can be formulated by a surrogate element (or surrogate elements) to replace the original mechanical elements, and the dynamics simulation can be implemented by co-simulation with the surrogate element(s) embedded into a MB model. This framework consists of a series of techniques including data collection, feature extraction, training data sampling, surrogate element building, and model evaluation and selection. To verify the feasibility of this framework, we present two case studies, a vertical dynamics simulation and a longitudinal dynamics simulation, based on co-simulation with MATLAB/Simulink and Simpack, and a further comparison with a popular data-driven model (the Kriging model) is provided. The simulation result shows that using the legendre polynomial regression model in building surrogate elements can largely cut down the simulation time without sacrifice in accuracy.

BIODEGRADATION PROBABILITY PROGRAM (BIODEG)

EPA Science Inventory

The Biodegradation Probability Program (BIODEG) calculates the probability that a chemical under aerobic conditions with mixed cultures of microorganisms will biodegrade rapidly or slowly. It uses fragment constants developed using multiple linear and non-linear regressions and d...

Improved quantification of important beer quality parameters based on nonlinear calibration methods applied to FT-MIR spectra.

PubMed

Cernuda, Carlos; Lughofer, Edwin; Klein, Helmut; Forster, Clemens; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus

2017-01-01

During the production process of beer, it is of utmost importance to guarantee a high consistency of the beer quality. For instance, the bitterness is an essential quality parameter which has to be controlled within the specifications at the beginning of the production process in the unfermented beer (wort) as well as in final products such as beer and beer mix beverages. Nowadays, analytical techniques for quality control in beer production are mainly based on manual supervision, i.e., samples are taken from the process and analyzed in the laboratory. This typically requires significant lab technicians efforts for only a small fraction of samples to be analyzed, which leads to significant costs for beer breweries and companies. Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with nonlinear multivariate calibration techniques to overcome (i) the time consuming off-line analyses in beer production and (ii) already known limitations of standard linear chemometric methods, like partial least squares (PLS), for important quality parameters Speers et al. (J I Brewing. 2003;109(3):229-235), Zhang et al. (J I Brewing. 2012;118(4):361-367) such as bitterness, citric acid, total acids, free amino nitrogen, final attenuation, or foam stability. The calibration models are established with enhanced nonlinear techniques based (i) on a new piece-wise linear version of PLS by employing fuzzy rules for local partitioning the latent variable space and (ii) on extensions of support vector regression variants (-PLSSVR and ν-PLSSVR), for overcoming high computation times in high-dimensional problems and time-intensive and inappropriate settings of the kernel parameters. Furthermore, we introduce a new model selection scheme based on bagged ensembles in order to improve robustness and thus predictive quality of the final models. The approaches are tested on real-world calibration data sets for wort and beer mix beverages, and successfully compared to linear methods, showing a clear out-performance in most cases and being able to meet the model quality requirements defined by the experts at the beer company. Figure Workflow for calibration of non-Linear model ensembles from FT-MIR spectra in beer production .

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape

PubMed Central

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for ‘difficult’ variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables. PMID:29713298

Modeling Linguistic Variables With Regression Models: Addressing Non-Gaussian Distributions, Non-independent Observations, and Non-linear Predictors With Random Effects and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape.

PubMed

Coupé, Christophe

2018-01-01

As statistical approaches are getting increasingly used in linguistics, attention must be paid to the choice of methods and algorithms used. This is especially true since they require assumptions to be satisfied to provide valid results, and because scientific articles still often fall short of reporting whether such assumptions are met. Progress is being, however, made in various directions, one of them being the introduction of techniques able to model data that cannot be properly analyzed with simpler linear regression models. We report recent advances in statistical modeling in linguistics. We first describe linear mixed-effects regression models (LMM), which address grouping of observations, and generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMM), which offer a family of distributions for the dependent variable. Generalized additive models (GAM) are then introduced, which allow modeling non-linear parametric or non-parametric relationships between the dependent variable and the predictors. We then highlight the possibilities offered by generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS). We explain how they make it possible to go beyond common distributions, such as Gaussian or Poisson, and offer the appropriate inferential framework to account for 'difficult' variables such as count data with strong overdispersion. We also demonstrate how they offer interesting perspectives on data when not only the mean of the dependent variable is modeled, but also its variance, skewness, and kurtosis. As an illustration, the case of phonemic inventory size is analyzed throughout the article. For over 1,500 languages, we consider as predictors the number of speakers, the distance from Africa, an estimation of the intensity of language contact, and linguistic relationships. We discuss the use of random effects to account for genealogical relationships, the choice of appropriate distributions to model count data, and non-linear relationships. Relying on GAMLSS, we assess a range of candidate distributions, including the Sichel, Delaporte, Box-Cox Green and Cole, and Box-Cox t distributions. We find that the Box-Cox t distribution, with appropriate modeling of its parameters, best fits the conditional distribution of phonemic inventory size. We finally discuss the specificities of phoneme counts, weak effects, and how GAMLSS should be considered for other linguistic variables.

Testing for nonlinearity in non-stationary physiological time series.

PubMed

Guarín, Diego; Delgado, Edilson; Orozco, Álvaro

2011-01-01

Testing for nonlinearity is one of the most important preprocessing steps in nonlinear time series analysis. Typically, this is done by means of the linear surrogate data methods. But it is a known fact that the validity of the results heavily depends on the stationarity of the time series. Since most physiological signals are non-stationary, it is easy to falsely detect nonlinearity using the linear surrogate data methods. In this document, we propose a methodology to extend the procedure for generating constrained surrogate time series in order to assess nonlinearity in non-stationary data. The method is based on the band-phase-randomized surrogates, which consists (contrary to the linear surrogate data methods) in randomizing only a portion of the Fourier phases in the high frequency domain. Analysis of simulated time series showed that in comparison to the linear surrogate data method, our method is able to discriminate between linear stationarity, linear non-stationary and nonlinear time series. Applying our methodology to heart rate variability (HRV) records of five healthy patients, we encountered that nonlinear correlations are present in this non-stationary physiological signals.

Modified harmonic balance method for the solution of nonlinear jerk equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. Saifur; Hasan, A. S. M. Z.

2018-03-01

In this paper, a second approximate solution of nonlinear jerk equations (third order differential equation) can be obtained by using modified harmonic balance method. The method is simpler and easier to carry out the solution of nonlinear differential equations due to less number of nonlinear equations are required to solve than the classical harmonic balance method. The results obtained from this method are compared with those obtained from the other existing analytical methods that are available in the literature and the numerical method. The solution shows a good agreement with the numerical solution as well as the analytical methods of the available literature.

Assess and Predict Automatic Generation Control Performances for Thermal Power Generation Units Based on Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yan; Yang, Zijiang; Gao, Song; Liu, Jinbiao

2018-02-01

Automatic generation control(AGC) is a key technology to maintain real time power generation and load balance, and to ensure the quality of power supply. Power grids require each power generation unit to have a satisfactory AGC performance, being specified in two detailed rules. The two rules provide a set of indices to measure the AGC performance of power generation unit. However, the commonly-used method to calculate these indices is based on particular data samples from AGC responses and will lead to incorrect results in practice. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the AGC performance indices via system identification techniques. In addition, a nonlinear regression model between performance indices and load command is built in order to predict the AGC performance indices. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through industrial case studies.

Spectrofluorimetric study of host-guest complexation of ibuprofen with beta-cyclodextrin and its analytical application.

PubMed

Manzoori, Jamshid L; Amjadi, Mohammad

2003-03-15

The characteristics of host-guest complexation between beta-cyclodextrin (beta-CD) and two forms of ibuprofen (protonated and deprotonated) were investigated by fluorescence spectrometry. 1:1 stoichiometries for both complexes were established and their association constants at different temperatures were calculated by applying a non-linear regression method to the change in the fluorescence of ibuprofen that brought about by the presence of beta-CD. The thermodynamic parameters (deltaH, deltaS and deltaG) associated with the inclusion process were also determined. Based on the obtained results, a sensitive spectrofluorimetric method for the determination of ibuprofen was developed with a linear range of 0.1-2 microg ml(-1) and a detection limit of 0.03 microg ml(-1). The method was applied satisfactorily to the determination of ibuprofen in pharmaceutical preparations. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Random forest regression for magnetic resonance image synthesis.

PubMed

Jog, Amod; Carass, Aaron; Roy, Snehashis; Pham, Dzung L; Prince, Jerry L

2017-01-01

By choosing different pulse sequences and their parameters, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can generate a large variety of tissue contrasts. This very flexibility, however, can yield inconsistencies with MRI acquisitions across datasets or scanning sessions that can in turn cause inconsistent automated image analysis. Although image synthesis of MR images has been shown to be helpful in addressing this problem, an inability to synthesize both T 2 -weighted brain images that include the skull and FLuid Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR) images has been reported. The method described herein, called REPLICA, addresses these limitations. REPLICA is a supervised random forest image synthesis approach that learns a nonlinear regression to predict intensities of alternate tissue contrasts given specific input tissue contrasts. Experimental results include direct image comparisons between synthetic and real images, results from image analysis tasks on both synthetic and real images, and comparison against other state-of-the-art image synthesis methods. REPLICA is computationally fast, and is shown to be comparable to other methods on tasks they are able to perform. Additionally REPLICA has the capability to synthesize both T 2 -weighted images of the full head and FLAIR images, and perform intensity standardization between different imaging datasets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear and nonlinear dynamic analysis of redundant load path bearingless rotor systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, V. R.; Shultz, Louis A.

1994-01-01

The goal of this research is to develop the transfer matrix method to treat nonlinear autonomous boundary value problems with multiple branches. The application is the complete nonlinear aeroelastic analysis of multiple-branched rotor blades. Once the development is complete, it can be incorporated into the existing transfer matrix analyses. There are several difficulties to be overcome in reaching this objective. The conventional transfer matrix method is limited in that it is applicable only to linear branch chain-like structures, but consideration of multiple branch modeling is important for bearingless rotors. Also, hingeless and bearingless rotor blade dynamic characteristics (particularly their aeroelasticity problems) are inherently nonlinear. The nonlinear equations of motion and the multiple-branched boundary value problem are treated together using a direct transfer matrix method. First, the formulation is applied to a nonlinear single-branch blade to validate the nonlinear portion of the formulation. The nonlinear system of equations is iteratively solved using a form of Newton-Raphson iteration scheme developed for differential equations of continuous systems. The formulation is then applied to determine the nonlinear steady state trim and aeroelastic stability of a rotor blade in hover with two branches at the root. A comprehensive computer program is developed and is used to obtain numerical results for the (1) free vibration, (2) nonlinearly deformed steady state, (3) free vibration about the nonlinearly deformed steady state, and (4) aeroelastic stability tasks. The numerical results obtained by the present method agree with results from other methods.

Nonlinear analysis of fetal heart rate dynamics in fetuses compromised by asymptomatic partial placental abruption.

PubMed

Choi, Won-Young; Hoh, Jeong-Kyu

2015-12-01

We analyzed fetal heart rate (FHR) parameters, dynamics, and outcomes in pregnancies with asymptomatic partial placental abruption (PPA) compared with those in normal pregnancies. We examined nonstress test (NST) data acquired from 2003 to 2012 at our institution. Normal pregnancies (N = 170) and PPA cases (N = 17) were matched for gestational age, fetal sex, and mean FHR. NSTs were performed at 33-42 weeks of gestation. FHR parameters obtained from the NST and perinatal outcomes were analyzed using linear methods. Nonlinear indices, including approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn), short-term and long-term scaling exponents (α1 and α2), and correlation dimension (CD), were used to interpret FHR dynamics and system complexity. The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the nonlinear indices. There were no significant differences in general characteristics and FHR parameters between the PPA and control groups. However, gestational age at delivery, birth weight, 5-min Apgar scores, ApEn, SampEn, and CD were significantly lower in the PPA group than in the control group (P < 0.05). The long-term scaling exponent (α2) and crossover index (α2/α1) of the PPA fetuses were significantly higher than those of the controls (P < 0.01). A multiple regression model showed better performance in predicting PPA (AUC, 0.92; sensitivity 82.35%; specificity, 94.12%). Nonlinear dynamic indices of FHR in asymptomatic PPA were qualitatively different from those in normal pregnancies, whereas the conventional FHR parameters were not significantly different. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An efficient computational method for the approximate solution of nonlinear Lane-Emden type equations arising in astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harendra

2018-04-01

The key purpose of this article is to introduce an efficient computational method for the approximate solution of the homogeneous as well as non-homogeneous nonlinear Lane-Emden type equations. Using proposed computational method given nonlinear equation is converted into a set of nonlinear algebraic equations whose solution gives the approximate solution to the Lane-Emden type equation. Various nonlinear cases of Lane-Emden type equations like standard Lane-Emden equation, the isothermal gas spheres equation and white-dwarf equation are discussed. Results are compared with some well-known numerical methods and it is observed that our results are more accurate.

Applications of Nonlinear Control Using the State-Dependent Riccati Equation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

method, and do not address noise rejection or robustness issues. xi Applications of Nonlinear Control Using the State-Dependent Riccati Equation I...construct a stabilizing nonlinear feedback controller. This method will be referred to as nonlinear quadratic regulation (NQR). The original intention...involves nding a state-dependent coe- cient (SDC) linear structure for which a stabilizing nonlinear feedback controller can be constructed. The

A Model Stitching Architecture for Continuous Full Flight-Envelope Simulation of Fixed-Wing Aircraft and Rotorcraft from Discrete Point Linear Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-01

incorporated with nonlinear elements to produce a continuous, quasi -nonlinear simulation model. Extrapolation methods within the model stitching architecture...Simulation Model, Quasi -Nonlinear, Piloted Simulation, Flight-Test Implications, System Identification, Off-Nominal Loading Extrapolation, Stability...incorporated with nonlinear elements to produce a continuous, quasi -nonlinear simulation model. Extrapolation methods within the model stitching

Computation of nonlinear ultrasound fields using a linearized contrast source method.

PubMed

Verweij, Martin D; Demi, Libertario; van Dongen, Koen W A

2013-08-01

Nonlinear ultrasound is important in medical diagnostics because imaging of the higher harmonics improves resolution and reduces scattering artifacts. Second harmonic imaging is currently standard, and higher harmonic imaging is under investigation. The efficient development of novel imaging modalities and equipment requires accurate simulations of nonlinear wave fields in large volumes of realistic (lossy, inhomogeneous) media. The Iterative Nonlinear Contrast Source (INCS) method has been developed to deal with spatiotemporal domains measuring hundreds of wavelengths and periods. This full wave method considers the nonlinear term of the Westervelt equation as a nonlinear contrast source, and solves the equivalent integral equation via the Neumann iterative solution. Recently, the method has been extended with a contrast source that accounts for spatially varying attenuation. The current paper addresses the problem that the Neumann iterative solution converges badly for strong contrast sources. The remedy is linearization of the nonlinear contrast source, combined with application of more advanced methods for solving the resulting integral equation. Numerical results show that linearization in combination with a Bi-Conjugate Gradient Stabilized method allows the INCS method to deal with fairly strong, inhomogeneous attenuation, while the error due to the linearization can be eliminated by restarting the iterative scheme.

A new treatment for predicting the self-excited vibrations of nonlinear systems with frictional interfaces: The Constrained Harmonic Balance Method, with application to disc brake squeal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coudeyras, N.; Sinou, J.-J.; Nacivet, S.

2009-01-01

Brake squeal noise is still an issue since it generates high warranty costs for the automotive industry and irritation for customers. Key parameters must be known in order to reduce it. Stability analysis is a common method of studying nonlinear phenomena and has been widely used by the scientific and the engineering communities for solving disc brake squeal problems. This type of analysis provides areas of stability versus instability for driven parameters, thereby making it possible to define design criteria. Nevertheless, this technique does not permit obtaining the vibrating state of the brake system and nonlinear methods have to be employed. Temporal integration is a well-known method for computing the dynamic solution but as it is time consuming, nonlinear methods such as the Harmonic Balance Method (HBM) are preferred. This paper presents a novel nonlinear method called the Constrained Harmonic Balance Method (CHBM) that works for nonlinear systems subject to flutter instability. An additional constraint-based condition is proposed that omits the static equilibrium point (i.e. the trivial static solution of the nonlinear problem that would be obtained by applying the classical HBM) and therefore focuses on predicting both the Fourier coefficients and the fundamental frequency of the stationary nonlinear system. The effectiveness of the proposed nonlinear approach is illustrated by an analysis of disc brake squeal. The brake system under consideration is a reduced finite element model of a pad and a disc. Both stability and nonlinear analyses are performed and the results are compared with a classical variable order solver integration algorithm. Therefore, the objectives of the following paper are to present not only an extension of the HBM (CHBM) but also to demonstrate an application to the specific problem of disc brake squeal with extensively parametric studies that investigate the effects of the friction coefficient, piston pressure, nonlinear stiffness and structural damping.

A PHARMACOKINETIC PROGRAM (PKFIT) FOR R

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of this study was to create a nonlinear regression (including a genetic algorithm) program (R script) to deal with data fitting for pharmacokinetics (PK) in R environment using its available packages. We call this tool as PKfit.

Experimental validation of a coupled neutron-photon inverse radiation transport solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattingly, John; Mitchell, Dean J.; Harding, Lee T.

2011-10-01

Sandia National Laboratories has developed an inverse radiation transport solver that applies nonlinear regression to coupled neutron-photon deterministic transport models. The inverse solver uses nonlinear regression to fit a radiation transport model to gamma spectrometry and neutron multiplicity counting measurements. The subject of this paper is the experimental validation of that solver. This paper describes a series of experiments conducted with a 4.5 kg sphere of α-phase, weapons-grade plutonium. The source was measured bare and reflected by high-density polyethylene (HDPE) spherical shells with total thicknesses between 1.27 and 15.24 cm. Neutron and photon emissions from the source were measured using three instruments: a gross neutron counter, a portable neutron multiplicity counter, and a high-resolution gamma spectrometer. These measurements were used as input to the inverse radiation transport solver to evaluate the solver's ability to correctly infer the configuration of the source from its measured radiation signatures.

Non-linear quantitative structure-activity relationship for adenine derivatives as competitive inhibitors of adenosine deaminase

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sadat Hayatshahi, Sayyed Hamed; Abdolmaleki, Parviz; Safarian, Shahrokh

2005-12-16

Logistic regression and artificial neural networks have been developed as two non-linear models to establish quantitative structure-activity relationships between structural descriptors and biochemical activity of adenosine based competitive inhibitors, toward adenosine deaminase. The training set included 24 compounds with known k {sub i} values. The models were trained to solve two-class problems. Unlike the previous work in which multiple linear regression was used, the highest of positive charge on the molecules was recognized to be in close relation with their inhibition activity, while the electric charge on atom N1 of adenosine was found to be a poor descriptor. Consequently, themore » previously developed equation was improved and the newly formed one could predict the class of 91.66% of compounds correctly. Also optimized 2-3-1 and 3-4-1 neural networks could increase this rate to 95.83%.« less

GHM method for obtaining rationalsolutions of nonlinear differential equations.

PubMed

Vazquez-Leal, Hector; Sarmiento-Reyes, Arturo

2015-01-01

In this paper, we propose the application of the general homotopy method (GHM) to obtain rational solutions of nonlinear differential equations. It delivers a high precision representation of the nonlinear differential equation using a few linear algebraic terms. In order to assess the benefits of this proposal, three nonlinear problems are solved and compared against other semi-analytic methods or numerical methods. The obtained results show that GHM is a powerful tool, capable to generate highly accurate rational solutions. AMS subject classification 34L30.

A new modal superposition method for nonlinear vibration analysis of structures using hybrid mode shapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferhatoglu, Erhan; Cigeroglu, Ender; Özgüven, H. Nevzat

2018-07-01

In this paper, a new modal superposition method based on a hybrid mode shape concept is developed for the determination of steady state vibration response of nonlinear structures. The method is developed specifically for systems having nonlinearities where the stiffness of the system may take different limiting values. Stiffness variation of these nonlinear systems enables one to define different linear systems corresponding to each value of the limiting equivalent stiffness. Moreover, the response of the nonlinear system is bounded by the confinement of these linear systems. In this study, a modal superposition method utilizing novel hybrid mode shapes which are defined as linear combinations of the modal vectors of the limiting linear systems is proposed to determine periodic response of nonlinear systems. In this method the response of the nonlinear system is written in terms of hybrid modes instead of the modes of the underlying linear system. This provides decrease of the number of modes that should be retained for an accurate solution, which in turn reduces the number of nonlinear equations to be solved. In this way, computational time for response calculation is directly curtailed. In the solution, the equations of motion are converted to a set of nonlinear algebraic equations by using describing function approach, and the numerical solution is obtained by using Newton's method with arc-length continuation. The method developed is applied on two different systems: a lumped parameter model and a finite element model. Several case studies are performed and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed modal superposition method with hybrid mode shapes are compared with those of the classical modal superposition method which utilizes the mode shapes of the underlying linear system.

Quantitative structure-activity relationship study of P2X7 receptor inhibitors using combination of principal component analysis and artificial intelligence methods.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Mehdi; Shahlaei, Mohsen

2015-01-01

P2X7 antagonist activity for a set of 49 molecules of the P2X7 receptor antagonists, derivatives of purine, was modeled with the aid of chemometric and artificial intelligence techniques. The activity of these compounds was estimated by means of combination of principal component analysis (PCA), as a well-known data reduction method, genetic algorithm (GA), as a variable selection technique, and artificial neural network (ANN), as a non-linear modeling method. First, a linear regression, combined with PCA, (principal component regression) was operated to model the structure-activity relationships, and afterwards a combination of PCA and ANN algorithm was employed to accurately predict the biological activity of the P2X7 antagonist. PCA preserves as much of the information as possible contained in the original data set. Seven most important PC's to the studied activity were selected as the inputs of ANN box by an efficient variable selection method, GA. The best computational neural network model was a fully-connected, feed-forward model with 7-7-1 architecture. The developed ANN model was fully evaluated by different validation techniques, including internal and external validation, and chemical applicability domain. All validations showed that the constructed quantitative structure-activity relationship model suggested is robust and satisfactory.

Quantitative structure–activity relationship study of P2X7 receptor inhibitors using combination of principal component analysis and artificial intelligence methods

PubMed Central

Ahmadi, Mehdi; Shahlaei, Mohsen

2015-01-01

P2X7 antagonist activity for a set of 49 molecules of the P2X7 receptor antagonists, derivatives of purine, was modeled with the aid of chemometric and artificial intelligence techniques. The activity of these compounds was estimated by means of combination of principal component analysis (PCA), as a well-known data reduction method, genetic algorithm (GA), as a variable selection technique, and artificial neural network (ANN), as a non-linear modeling method. First, a linear regression, combined with PCA, (principal component regression) was operated to model the structure–activity relationships, and afterwards a combination of PCA and ANN algorithm was employed to accurately predict the biological activity of the P2X7 antagonist. PCA preserves as much of the information as possible contained in the original data set. Seven most important PC's to the studied activity were selected as the inputs of ANN box by an efficient variable selection method, GA. The best computational neural network model was a fully-connected, feed-forward model with 7−7−1 architecture. The developed ANN model was fully evaluated by different validation techniques, including internal and external validation, and chemical applicability domain. All validations showed that the constructed quantitative structure–activity relationship model suggested is robust and satisfactory. PMID:26600858

Simulation of Vortex Structure in Supersonic Free Shear Layer Using Pse Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xin; Wang, Qiang

The method of parabolized stability equations (PSE) are applied in the analysis of nonlinear stability and the simulation of flow structure in supersonic free shear layer. High accuracy numerical techniques including self-similar basic flow, high order differential method, appropriate transformation and decomposition of nonlinear terms are adopted and developed to solve the PSE effectively for free shear layer. The spatial evolving unstable waves which dominate the flow structure are investigated through nonlinear coupling spatial marching methods. The nonlinear interactions between harmonic waves are further analyzed and instantaneous flow field are obtained by adding the harmonic waves into basic flow. Relevant data agree well with that of DNS. The results demonstrate that T-S wave does not keeping growing exponential as the linear evolution, the energy transfer to high order harmonic modes and finally all harmonic modes get saturation due to the nonlinear interaction; Mean flow distortion is produced by the nonlinear interaction between the harmonic and its conjugate harmonic, makes great change to the average flow and increases the thickness of shear layer; PSE methods can well capture the large scale nonlinear flow structure in the supersonic free shear layer such as vortex roll-up, vortex pairing and nonlinear saturation.

Effects of structural nonlinearity on subsonic aeroelastic characteristics of an aircraft wing with control surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, J.-S.; Inman, D. J.; Lee, I.

2004-07-01

The nonlinear aeroelastic characteristics of an aircraft wing with a control surface are investigated. A doublet-hybrid method is used for the calculation of subsonic unsteady aerodynamic forces and the minimum-state approximation is used for the approximation of aerodynamic forces. A free vibration analysis is performed using the finite element and the fictitious mass methods. The structural nonlinearity in the control surface hinge is represented by both free-play and a bilinear nonlinearity. These nonlinearities are linearized using the describing function method. From the nonlinear flutter analysis, various types of limit cycle oscillations and periodic motions are observed in a wide range of air speeds below the linear flutter boundary. The effects of structural nonlinearities on aeroelastic characteristics are investigated.

Dynamic analysis of nonlinear rotor-housing systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noah, Sherif T.

1988-01-01

Nonlinear analysis methods are developed which will enable the reliable prediction of the dynamic behavior of the space shuttle main engine (SSME) turbopumps in the presence of bearing clearances and other local nonlinearities. A computationally efficient convolution method, based on discretized Duhamel and transition matrix integral formulations, is developed for the transient analysis. In the formulation, the coupling forces due to the nonlinearities are treated as external forces acting on the coupled subsystems. Iteration is utilized to determine their magnitudes at each time increment. The method is applied to a nonlinear generic model of the high pressure oxygen turbopump (HPOTP). As compared to the fourth order Runge-Kutta numerical integration methods, the convolution approach proved to be more accurate and more highly efficient. For determining the nonlinear, steady-state periodic responses, an incremental harmonic balance method was also developed. The method was successfully used to determine dominantly harmonic and subharmonic responses fo the HPOTP generic model with bearing clearances. A reduction method similar to the impedance formulation utilized with linear systems is used to reduce the housing-rotor models to their coordinates at the bearing clearances. Recommendations are included for further development of the method, for extending the analysis to aperiodic and chaotic regimes and for conducting critical parameteric studies of the nonlinear response of the current SSME turbopumps.

PCI fuel failure analysis: a report on a cooperative program undertaken by Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohr, C.L.; Pankaskie, P.J.; Heasler, P.G.

Reactor fuel failure data sets in the form of initial power (P/sub i/), final power (P/sub f/), transient increase in power (..delta..P), and burnup (Bu) were obtained for pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs), boiling water reactors (BWRs), and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). These data sets were evaluated and used as the basis for developing two predictive fuel failure models, a graphical concept called the PCI-OGRAM, and a nonlinear regression based model called PROFIT. The PCI-OGRAM is an extension of the FUELOGRAM developed by AECL. It is based on a critical threshold concept for stress dependent stress corrosion cracking. The PROFITmore » model, developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is the result of applying standard statistical regression methods to the available PCI fuel failure data and an analysis of the environmental and strain rate dependent stress-strain properties of the Zircaloy cladding.« less

Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN)--a Perl module for NONMEM related programming.

PubMed

Lindbom, Lars; Ribbing, Jakob; Jonsson, E Niclas

2004-08-01

The NONMEM program is the most widely used nonlinear regression software in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analyses. In this article we describe a programming library, Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN), intended for programmers that aim at using the computational capability of NONMEM in external applications. The library is object oriented and written in the programming language Perl. The classes of the library are built around NONMEM's data, model and output files. The specification of the NONMEM model is easily set or changed through the model and data file classes while the output from a model fit is accessed through the output file class. The classes have methods that help the programmer perform common repetitive tasks, e.g. summarising the output from a NONMEM run, setting the initial estimates of a model based on a previous run or truncating values over a certain threshold in the data file. PsN creates a basis for the development of high-level software using NONMEM as the regression tool.

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.

PubMed

Corron, Louise; Marchal, François; Condemi, Silvana; Chaumoître, Kathia; Adalian, Pascal

2017-01-01

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Robust nonlinear system identification: Bayesian mixture of experts using the t-distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldacchino, Tara; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

2017-02-01

A novel variational Bayesian mixture of experts model for robust regression of bifurcating and piece-wise continuous processes is introduced. The mixture of experts model is a powerful model which probabilistically splits the input space allowing different models to operate in the separate regions. However, current methods have no fail-safe against outliers. In this paper, a robust mixture of experts model is proposed which consists of Student-t mixture models at the gates and Student-t distributed experts, trained via Bayesian inference. The Student-t distribution has heavier tails than the Gaussian distribution, and so it is more robust to outliers, noise and non-normality in the data. Using both simulated data and real data obtained from the Z24 bridge this robust mixture of experts performs better than its Gaussian counterpart when outliers are present. In particular, it provides robustness to outliers in two forms: unbiased parameter regression models, and robustness to overfitting/complex models.

Rapid and simultaneous analysis of five alkaloids in four parts of Coptidis Rhizoma by near-infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jintao, Xue; Yufei, Liu; Liming, Ye; Chunyan, Li; Quanwei, Yang; Weiying, Wang; Yun, Jing; Minxiang, Zhang; Peng, Li

2018-01-01

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) was first used to develop a method for rapid and simultaneous determination of 5 active alkaloids (berberine, coptisine, palmatine, epiberberine and jatrorrhizine) in 4 parts (rhizome, fibrous root, stem and leaf) of Coptidis Rhizoma. A total of 100 samples from 4 main places of origin were collected and studied. With HPLC analysis values as calibration reference, the quantitative analysis of 5 marker components was performed by two different modeling methods, partial least-squares (PLS) regression as linear regression and artificial neural networks (ANN) as non-linear regression. The results indicated that the 2 types of models established were robust, accurate and repeatable for five active alkaloids, and the ANN models was more suitable for the determination of berberine, coptisine and palmatine while the PLS model was more suitable for the analysis of epiberberine and jatrorrhizine. The performance of the optimal models was achieved as follows: the correlation coefficient (R) for berberine, coptisine, palmatine, epiberberine and jatrorrhizine was 0.9958, 0.9956, 0.9959, 0.9963 and 0.9923, respectively; the root mean square error of validation (RMSEP) was 0.5093, 0.0578, 0.0443, 0.0563 and 0.0090, respectively. Furthermore, for the comprehensive exploitation and utilization of plant resource of Coptidis Rhizoma, the established NIR models were used to analysis the content of 5 active alkaloids in 4 parts of Coptidis Rhizoma and 4 main origin of places. This work demonstrated that NIRS may be a promising method as routine screening for off-line fast analysis or on-line quality assessment of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM).

Nonlinear Ion Harmonics in the Paul Trap with Added Octopole Field: Theoretical Characterization and New Insight into Nonlinear Resonance Effect.

PubMed

Xiong, Caiqiao; Zhou, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Ning; Zhan, Lingpeng; Chen, Yongtai; Nie, Zongxiu

2016-02-01

The nonlinear harmonics within the ion motion are the fingerprint of the nonlinear fields. They are exclusively introduced by these nonlinear fields and are responsible to some specific nonlinear effects such as nonlinear resonance effect. In this article, the ion motion in the quadrupole field with a weak superimposed octopole component, described by the nonlinear Mathieu equation (NME), was studied by using the analytical harmonic balance (HB) method. Good accuracy of the HB method, which was comparable with that of the numerical fourth-order Runge-Kutta (4th RK), was achieved in the entire first stability region, except for the points at the stability boundary (i.e., β = 1) and at the nonlinear resonance condition (i.e., β = 0.5). Using the HB method, the nonlinear 3β harmonic series introduced by the octopole component and the resultant nonlinear resonance effect were characterized. At nonlinear resonance, obvious resonant peaks were observed in the nonlinear 3β series of ion motion, but were not found in the natural harmonics. In addition, both resonant excitation and absorption peaks could be observed, simultaneously. These are two unique features of the nonlinear resonance, distinguishing it from the normal resonance. Finally, an approximation equation was given to describe the corresponding working parameter, q nr , at nonlinear resonance. This equation can help avoid the sensitivity degradation due to the operation of ion traps at the nonlinear resonance condition.

Foot and hip contributions to high frontal plane knee projection angle in athletes: a classification and regression tree approach.

PubMed

Bittencourt, Natalia F N; Ocarino, Juliana M; Mendonça, Luciana D M; Hewett, Timothy E; Fonseca, Sergio T

2012-12-01

Cross-sectional. To investigate predictors of increased frontal plane knee projection angle (FPKPA) in athletes. The underlying mechanisms that lead to increased FPKPA are likely multifactorial and depend on how the musculoskeletal system adapts to the possible interactions between its distal and proximal segments. Bivariate and linear analyses traditionally employed to analyze the occurrence of increased FPKPA are not sufficiently robust to capture complex relationships among predictors. The investigation of nonlinear interactions among biomechanical factors is necessary to further our understanding of the interdependence of lower-limb segments and resultant dynamic knee alignment. The FPKPA was assessed in 101 athletes during a single-leg squat and in 72 athletes at the moment of landing from a jump. The investigated predictors were sex, hip abductor isometric torque, passive range of motion (ROM) of hip internal rotation (IR), and shank-forefoot alignment. Classification and regression trees were used to investigate nonlinear interactions among predictors and their influence on the occurrence of increased FPKPA. During single-leg squatting, the occurrence of high FPKPA was predicted by the interaction between hip abductor isometric torque and passive hip IR ROM. At the moment of landing, the shank-forefoot alignment, abductor isometric torque, and passive hip IR ROM were predictors of high FPKPA. In addition, the classification and regression trees established cutoff points that could be used in clinical practice to identify athletes who are at potential risk for excessive FPKPA. The models captured nonlinear interactions between hip abductor isometric torque, passive hip IR ROM, and shank-forefoot alignment.

Learning Inverse Rig Mappings by Nonlinear Regression.

PubMed

Holden, Daniel; Saito, Jun; Komura, Taku

2017-03-01

We present a framework to design inverse rig-functions-functions that map low level representations of a character's pose such as joint positions or surface geometry to the representation used by animators called the animation rig. Animators design scenes using an animation rig, a framework widely adopted in animation production which allows animators to design character poses and geometry via intuitive parameters and interfaces. Yet most state-of-the-art computer animation techniques control characters through raw, low level representations such as joint angles, joint positions, or vertex coordinates. This difference often stops the adoption of state-of-the-art techniques in animation production. Our framework solves this issue by learning a mapping between the low level representations of the pose and the animation rig. We use nonlinear regression techniques, learning from example animation sequences designed by the animators. When new motions are provided in the skeleton space, the learned mapping is used to estimate the rig controls that reproduce such a motion. We introduce two nonlinear functions for producing such a mapping: Gaussian process regression and feedforward neural networks. The appropriate solution depends on the nature of the rig and the amount of data available for training. We show our framework applied to various examples including articulated biped characters, quadruped characters, facial animation rigs, and deformable characters. With our system, animators have the freedom to apply any motion synthesis algorithm to arbitrary rigging and animation pipelines for immediate editing. This greatly improves the productivity of 3D animation, while retaining the flexibility and creativity of artistic input.

Forecasting Daily Patient Outflow From a Ward Having No Real-Time Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background: Modeling patient flow is crucial in understanding resource demand and prioritization. We study patient outflow from an open ward in an Australian hospital, where currently bed allocation is carried out by a manager relying on past experiences and looking at demand. Automatic methods that provide a reasonable estimate of total next-day discharges can aid in efficient bed management. The challenges in building such methods lie in dealing with large amounts of discharge noise introduced by the nonlinear nature of hospital procedures, and the nonavailability of real-time clinical information in wards. Objective Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. Methods We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features. Results Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014. Conclusions In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments. PMID:27444059

Process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis for anomaly detection in safeguards

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burr, T.L.; Mullen, M.F.; Wangen, L.E.

In this paper we discuss two advanced techniques, process fault detection and nonlinear time series analysis, and apply them to the analysis of vector-valued and single-valued time-series data. We investigate model-based process fault detection methods for analyzing simulated, multivariate, time-series data from a three-tank system. The model-predictions are compared with simulated measurements of the same variables to form residual vectors that are tested for the presence of faults (possible diversions in safeguards terminology). We evaluate two methods, testing all individual residuals with a univariate z-score and testing all variables simultaneously with the Mahalanobis distance, for their ability to detect lossmore » of material from two different leak scenarios from the three-tank system: a leak without and with replacement of the lost volume. Nonlinear time-series analysis tools were compared with the linear methods popularized by Box and Jenkins. We compare prediction results using three nonlinear and two linear modeling methods on each of six simulated time series: two nonlinear and four linear. The nonlinear methods performed better at predicting the nonlinear time series and did as well as the linear methods at predicting the linear values.« less

A new analytical method for characterizing nonlinear visual processes with stimuli of arbitrary distribution: Theory and applications.

PubMed

Hayashi, Ryusuke; Watanabe, Osamu; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Nishida, Shin'ya

2017-06-01

Characterization of the functional relationship between sensory inputs and neuronal or observers' perceptual responses is one of the fundamental goals of systems neuroscience and psychophysics. Conventional methods, such as reverse correlation and spike-triggered data analyses are limited in their ability to resolve complex and inherently nonlinear neuronal/perceptual processes because these methods require input stimuli to be Gaussian with a zero mean. Recent studies have shown that analyses based on a generalized linear model (GLM) do not require such specific input characteristics and have advantages over conventional methods. GLM, however, relies on iterative optimization algorithms and its calculation costs become very expensive when estimating the nonlinear parameters of a large-scale system using large volumes of data. In this paper, we introduce a new analytical method for identifying a nonlinear system without relying on iterative calculations and yet also not requiring any specific stimulus distribution. We demonstrate the results of numerical simulations, showing that our noniterative method is as accurate as GLM in estimating nonlinear parameters in many cases and outperforms conventional, spike-triggered data analyses. As an example of the application of our method to actual psychophysical data, we investigated how different spatiotemporal frequency channels interact in assessments of motion direction. The nonlinear interaction estimated by our method was consistent with findings from previous vision studies and supports the validity of our method for nonlinear system identification.

Joint recognition and discrimination in nonlinear feature space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talukder, Ashit; Casasent, David P.

1997-09-01

A new general method for linear and nonlinear feature extraction is presented. It is novel since it provides both representation and discrimination while most other methods are concerned with only one of these issues. We call this approach the maximum representation and discrimination feature (MRDF) method and show that the Bayes classifier and the Karhunen- Loeve transform are special cases of it. We refer to our nonlinear feature extraction technique as nonlinear eigen- feature extraction. It is new since it has a closed-form solution and produces nonlinear decision surfaces with higher rank than do iterative methods. Results on synthetic databases are shown and compared with results from standard Fukunaga- Koontz transform and Fisher discriminant function methods. The method is also applied to an automated product inspection problem (discrimination) and to the classification and pose estimation of two similar objects (representation and discrimination).

Reduced-Order Models Based on Linear and Nonlinear Aerodynamic Impulse Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Walter A.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses a method for the identification and application of reduced-order models based on linear and nonlinear aerodynamic impulse responses. The Volterra theory of nonlinear systems and an appropriate kernel identification technique are described. Insight into the nature of kernels is provided by applying the method to the nonlinear Riccati equation in a non-aerodynamic application. The method is then applied to a nonlinear aerodynamic model of RAE 2822 supercritical airfoil undergoing plunge motions using the CFL3D Navier-Stokes flow solver with the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model. Results demonstrate the computational efficiency of the technique.

Reduced Order Models Based on Linear and Nonlinear Aerodynamic Impulse Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Walter A.

1999-01-01

This paper discusses a method for the identification and application of reduced-order models based on linear and nonlinear aerodynamic impulse responses. The Volterra theory of nonlinear systems and an appropriate kernel identification technique are described. Insight into the nature of kernels is provided by applying the method to the nonlinear Riccati equation in a non-aerodynamic application. The method is then applied to a nonlinear aerodynamic model of an RAE 2822 supercritical airfoil undergoing plunge motions using the CFL3D Navier-Stokes flow solver with the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model. Results demonstrate the computational efficiency of the technique.

Research in nonlinear structural and solid mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccomb, H. G., Jr. (Compiler); Noor, A. K. (Compiler)

1980-01-01

Nonlinear analysis of building structures and numerical solution of nonlinear algebraic equations and Newton's method are discussed. Other topics include: nonlinear interaction problems; solution procedures for nonlinear problems; crash dynamics and advanced nonlinear applications; material characterization, contact problems, and inelastic response; and formulation aspects and special software for nonlinear analysis.

Estimation of suspended-sediment rating curves and mean suspended-sediment loads

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.

1991-01-01

A simulation study was done to evaluate: (1) the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear and non-linear models obtained by the method of least squares; (2) the accuracy of mean suspended-sediment loads calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method using model parameters obtained by the alternative methods. Parameter estimates obtained by least squares for the bias-corrected, transformed-linear model were considerably more precise than those obtained for the non-linear or weighted non-linear model. The accuracy of parameter estimates obtained for the biascorrected, transformed-linear and weighted non-linear model was similar and was much greater than the accuracy obtained by non-linear least squares. The improved parameter estimates obtained by the biascorrected, transformed-linear or weighted non-linear model yield estimates of mean suspended-sediment load calculated by the flow-duration, rating-curve method that are more accurate and precise than those obtained for the non-linear model.

Prediction of optimum sorption isotherm: comparison of linear and non-linear method.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth; Sivanesan, S

2005-11-11

Equilibrium parameters for Bismarck brown onto rice husk were estimated by linear least square and a trial and error non-linear method using Freundlich, Langmuir and Redlich-Peterson isotherms. A comparison between linear and non-linear method of estimating the isotherm parameters was reported. The best fitting isotherm was Langmuir isotherm and Redlich-Peterson isotherm equation. The results show that non-linear method could be a better way to obtain the parameters. Redlich-Peterson isotherm is a special case of Langmuir isotherm when the Redlich-Peterson isotherm constant g was unity.

Validation of Left Atrial Volume Estimation by Left Atrial Diameter from the Parasternal Long-Axis View.

PubMed

Canciello, Grazia; de Simone, Giovanni; Izzo, Raffaele; Giamundo, Alessandra; Pacelli, Filomena; Mancusi, Costantino; Galderisi, Maurizio; Trimarco, Bruno; Losi, Maria-Angela

2017-03-01

Measurement of left atrial (LA) volume (LAV) is recommended for quantification of LA size. Only LA anteroposterior diameter (LAd) is available in a number of large cohorts, trials, or registries. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether LAV may be reasonably estimated from LAd. One hundred forty consecutive patients referred to our outpatient clinics were prospectively enrolled to measure LAd from the long-axis view on two-dimensional echocardiography. LA orthogonal dimensions were also taken from apical four- and two-chamber views. LAV was measured using the Simpson, area-length, and ellipsoid (LAV e ) methods. The first 70 patients were the learning series and the last 70 the testing series (TeS). In the learning series, best-fitting regression analysis of LAV-LAd was run using all LAV methods, and the highest values of F were chosen among the regression equations. In the TeS, the best-fitting regressions were used to estimate LAV from LAd. In the learning series, the best-fitting regression was linear for the Spearman method (r 2  = 0.62, F = 111.85, P = .0001) and area-length method (r 2  = 0.62, F = 112.24, P = .0001) and powered for the LAV e method (r 2  = 0.81, F = 288.41, P = .0001). In the TeS, the r 2 value for LAV prediction was substantially better using the LAV e method (r 2  = 0.89) than the Simpson (r 2  = 0.72) or area-length (r 2  = 0.70) method, as was the intraclass correlation (ρ = 0.96 vs ρ = 0.89 and ρ = 0.89, respectively). In the TeS, the sensitivity and specificity of LA dilatation by the estimated LAV e method were 87% and 90%, respectively. LAV can be estimated from LAd using a nonlinear equation with an elliptical model. The proposed method may be used in retrospective analysis of existing data sets in which determination of LAV was not programmed. Copyright © 2016 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Flexible link functions in nonparametric binary regression with Gaussian process priors.

PubMed

Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Lin, Lizhen; Dey, Dipak K

2016-09-01

In many scientific fields, it is a common practice to collect a sequence of 0-1 binary responses from a subject across time, space, or a collection of covariates. Researchers are interested in finding out how the expected binary outcome is related to covariates, and aim at better prediction in the future 0-1 outcomes. Gaussian processes have been widely used to model nonlinear systems; in particular to model the latent structure in a binary regression model allowing nonlinear functional relationship between covariates and the expectation of binary outcomes. A critical issue in modeling binary response data is the appropriate choice of link functions. Commonly adopted link functions such as probit or logit links have fixed skewness and lack the flexibility to allow the data to determine the degree of the skewness. To address this limitation, we propose a flexible binary regression model which combines a generalized extreme value link function with a Gaussian process prior on the latent structure. Bayesian computation is employed in model estimation. Posterior consistency of the resulting posterior distribution is demonstrated. The flexibility and gains of the proposed model are illustrated through detailed simulation studies and two real data examples. Empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms a set of alternative models, which only have either a Gaussian process prior on the latent regression function or a Dirichlet prior on the link function. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Flexible Link Functions in Nonparametric Binary Regression with Gaussian Process Priors

PubMed Central

Li, Dan; Lin, Lizhen; Dey, Dipak K.

2015-01-01

Summary In many scientific fields, it is a common practice to collect a sequence of 0-1 binary responses from a subject across time, space, or a collection of covariates. Researchers are interested in finding out how the expected binary outcome is related to covariates, and aim at better prediction in the future 0-1 outcomes. Gaussian processes have been widely used to model nonlinear systems; in particular to model the latent structure in a binary regression model allowing nonlinear functional relationship between covariates and the expectation of binary outcomes. A critical issue in modeling binary response data is the appropriate choice of link functions. Commonly adopted link functions such as probit or logit links have fixed skewness and lack the flexibility to allow the data to determine the degree of the skewness. To address this limitation, we propose a flexible binary regression model which combines a generalized extreme value link function with a Gaussian process prior on the latent structure. Bayesian computation is employed in model estimation. Posterior consistency of the resulting posterior distribution is demonstrated. The flexibility and gains of the proposed model are illustrated through detailed simulation studies and two real data examples. Empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms a set of alternative models, which only have either a Gaussian process prior on the latent regression function or a Dirichlet prior on the link function. PMID:26686333

Optimizing separate phase light hydrocarbon recovery from contaminated unconfined aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Grant S.; Peralta, Richard C.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

A modeling approach is presented that optimizes separate phase recovery of light non-aqueous phase liquids (LNAPL) for a single dual-extraction well in a homogeneous, isotropic unconfined aquifer. A simulation/regression/optimization (S/R/O) model is developed to predict, analyze, and optimize the oil recovery process. The approach combines detailed simulation, nonlinear regression, and optimization. The S/R/O model utilizes nonlinear regression equations describing system response to time-varying water pumping and oil skimming. Regression equations are developed for residual oil volume and free oil volume. The S/R/O model determines optimized time-varying (stepwise) pumping rates which minimize residual oil volume and maximize free oil recovery while causing free oil volume to decrease a specified amount. This S/R/O modeling approach implicitly immobilizes the free product plume by reversing the water table gradient while achieving containment. Application to a simple representative problem illustrates the S/R/O model utility for problem analysis and remediation design. When compared with the best steady pumping strategies, the optimal stepwise pumping strategy improves free oil recovery by 11.5% and reduces the amount of residual oil left in the system due to pumping by 15%. The S/R/O model approach offers promise for enhancing the design of free phase LNAPL recovery systems and to help in making cost-effective operation and management decisions for hydrogeologists, engineers, and regulators.

Modelling nonlinearity in superconducting split ring resonator and its effects on metamaterial structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazdouri, Behnam; Mohammad Hassan Javadzadeh, S.

2017-09-01

Superconducting materials are intrinsically nonlinear, because of nonlinear Meissner effect (NLME). Considering nonlinear behaviors, such as harmonic generation and intermodulation distortion (IMD) in superconducting structures, are very important. In this paper, we proposed distributed nonlinear circuit model for superconducting split ring resonators (SSRRs). This model can be analyzed by using Harmonic Balance method (HB) as a nonlinear solver. Thereafter, we considered a superconducting metamaterial filter which was based on split ring resonators and we calculated fundamental and third-order IMD signals. There are good agreement between nonlinear results from proposed model and measured ones. Additionally, based on the proposed nonlinear model and by using a novel method, we considered nonlinear effects on main parameters in the superconducting metamaterial structures such as phase constant (β) and attenuation factor (α).

Towards homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration for structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolna, Konrad; Dao, Phong B.; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Barszcz, Tomasz

2016-06-01

The paper presents the homoscedastic nonlinear cointegration. The method leads to stable variances in nonlinear cointegration residuals. The adapted Breusch-Pagan test procedure is developed to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity (or homoscedasticity) in the cointegration residuals obtained from the nonlinear cointegration analysis. Three different time series - i.e. one with a nonlinear quadratic deterministic trend, simulated vibration data and experimental wind turbine data - are used to illustrate the application of the proposed method. The proposed approach can be used for effective removal of nonlinear trends from various types of data and for reliable structural damage detection based on data that are corrupted by environmental and/or operational nonlinear trends.

Integrated method for chaotic time series analysis

DOEpatents

Hively, Lee M.; Ng, Esmond G.

1998-01-01

Methods and apparatus for automatically detecting differences between similar but different states in a nonlinear process monitor nonlinear data. Steps include: acquiring the data; digitizing the data; obtaining nonlinear measures of the data via chaotic time series analysis; obtaining time serial trends in the nonlinear measures; and determining by comparison whether differences between similar but different states are indicated.

Aggregating the response in time series regression models, applied to weather-related cardiovascular mortality.

PubMed

Masselot, Pierre; Chebana, Fateh; Bélanger, Diane; St-Hilaire, André; Abdous, Belkacem; Gosselin, Pierre; Ouarda, Taha B M J

2018-07-01

In environmental epidemiology studies, health response data (e.g. hospitalization or mortality) are often noisy because of hospital organization and other social factors. The noise in the data can hide the true signal related to the exposure. The signal can be unveiled by performing a temporal aggregation on health data and then using it as the response in regression analysis. From aggregated series, a general methodology is introduced to account for the particularities of an aggregated response in a regression setting. This methodology can be used with usually applied regression models in weather-related health studies, such as generalized additive models (GAM) and distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). In particular, the residuals are modelled using an autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model to account for the temporal dependence. The proposed methodology is illustrated by modelling the influence of temperature on cardiovascular mortality in Canada. A comparison with classical DLNMs is provided and several aggregation methods are compared. Results show that there is an increase in the fit quality when the response is aggregated, and that the estimated relationship focuses more on the outcome over several days than the classical DLNM. More precisely, among various investigated aggregation schemes, it was found that an aggregation with an asymmetric Epanechnikov kernel is more suited for studying the temperature-mortality relationship. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis using B-spline quantile regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, B.; Bouezmarni, T.; St-Hilaire, A.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2017-11-01

Hydrologic frequency analysis is commonly used by engineers and hydrologists to provide the basic information on planning, design and management of hydraulic and water resources systems under the assumption of stationarity. However, with increasing evidence of climate change, it is possible that the assumption of stationarity, which is prerequisite for traditional frequency analysis and hence, the results of conventional analysis would become questionable. In this study, we consider a framework for frequency analysis of extremes based on B-Spline quantile regression which allows to model data in the presence of non-stationarity and/or dependence on covariates with linear and non-linear dependence. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm was used to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. A coefficient of determination and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for quantile regression are used in order to select the best model, i.e. for each quantile, we choose the degree and number of knots of the adequate B-spline quantile regression model. The method is applied to annual maximum and minimum streamflow records in Ontario, Canada. Climate indices are considered to describe the non-stationarity in the variable of interest and to estimate the quantiles in this case. The results show large differences between the non-stationary quantiles and their stationary equivalents for an annual maximum and minimum discharge with high annual non-exceedance probabilities.

Net analyte signal-based simultaneous determination of ethanol and water by quartz crystal nanobalance sensor.

PubMed

Mirmohseni, A; Abdollahi, H; Rostamizadeh, K

2007-02-28

Net analyte signal (NAS)-based method called HLA/GO was applied for the selectively determination of binary mixture of ethanol and water by quartz crystal nanobalance (QCN) sensor. A full factorial design was applied for the formation of calibration and prediction sets in the concentration ranges 5.5-22.2 microg mL(-1) for ethanol and 7.01-28.07 microg mL(-1) for water. An optimal time range was selected by procedure which was based on the calculation of the net analyte signal regression plot in any considered time window for each test sample. A moving window strategy was used for searching the region with maximum linearity of NAS regression plot (minimum error indicator) and minimum of PRESS value. On the base of obtained results, the differences on the adsorption profiles in the time range between 1 and 600 s were used to determine mixtures of both compounds by HLA/GO method. The calculation of the net analytical signal using HLA/GO method allows determination of several figures of merit like selectivity, sensitivity, analytical sensitivity and limit of detection, for each component. To check the ability of the proposed method in the selection of linear regions of adsorption profile, a test for detecting non-linear regions of adsorption profile data in the presence of methanol was also described. The results showed that the method was successfully applied for the determination of ethanol and water.

Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection

PubMed Central

Li, Tingting; Cheng, Zhengguo; Zhang, Le

2017-01-01

Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency. PMID:29194393

Sufficient Forecasting Using Factor Models

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Yao, Jiawei

2017-01-01

We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional (approximate) factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive power. The projected principal component analysis will be employed to enhance the accuracy of inferred factors when a semi-parametric (approximate) factor model is assumed. Our method is also applicable to cross-sectional sufficient regression using extracted factors. The connection between the sufficient forecasting and the deep learning architecture is explicitly stated. The sufficient forecasting correctly estimates projection indices of the underlying factors even in the presence of a nonparametric forecasting function. The proposed method extends the sufficient dimension reduction to high-dimensional regimes by condensing the cross-sectional information through factor models. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimate of the central subspace spanned by these projection directions as well as the estimates of the sufficient predictive indices. We further show that the natural method of running multiple regression of target on estimated factors yields a linear estimate that actually falls into this central subspace. Our method and theory allow the number of predictors to be larger than the number of observations. We finally demonstrate that the sufficient forecasting improves upon the linear forecasting in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting macroeconomic variables. PMID:29731537

Developing a Novel Parameter Estimation Method for Agent-Based Model in Immune System Simulation under the Framework of History Matching: A Case Study on Influenza A Virus Infection.

PubMed

Li, Tingting; Cheng, Zhengguo; Zhang, Le

2017-12-01

Since they can provide a natural and flexible description of nonlinear dynamic behavior of complex system, Agent-based models (ABM) have been commonly used for immune system simulation. However, it is crucial for ABM to obtain an appropriate estimation for the key parameters of the model by incorporating experimental data. In this paper, a systematic procedure for immune system simulation by integrating the ABM and regression method under the framework of history matching is developed. A novel parameter estimation method by incorporating the experiment data for the simulator ABM during the procedure is proposed. First, we employ ABM as simulator to simulate the immune system. Then, the dimension-reduced type generalized additive model (GAM) is employed to train a statistical regression model by using the input and output data of ABM and play a role as an emulator during history matching. Next, we reduce the input space of parameters by introducing an implausible measure to discard the implausible input values. At last, the estimation of model parameters is obtained using the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) by fitting the experiment data among the non-implausible input values. The real Influeza A Virus (IAV) data set is employed to demonstrate the performance of our proposed method, and the results show that the proposed method not only has good fitting and predicting accuracy, but it also owns favorable computational efficiency.

Prediction of rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over the Southern Amazonia using machine learning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, X.; Zhang, K.; Zhuang, Y.; Fu, R.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Seasonal prediction of rainfall during the dry-to-wet transition season in austral spring (September-November) over southern Amazonia is central for improving planting crops and fire mitigation in that region. Previous studies have identified the key large-scale atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamics pre-conditions during the dry season (June-August) that influence the rainfall anomalies during the dry to wet transition season over Southern Amazonia. Based on these key pre-conditions during dry season, we have evaluated several statistical models and developed a Neural Network based statistical prediction system to predict rainfall during the dry to wet transition for Southern Amazonia (5-15°S, 50-70°W). Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) Analysis is applied to the following four fields during JJA from the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) spanning from year 1979 to 2015: geopotential height at 200 hPa, surface relative humidity, convective inhibition energy (CIN) index and convective available potential energy (CAPE), to filter out noise and highlight the most coherent spatial and temporal variations. The first 10 EOF modes are retained for inputs to the statistical models, accounting for at least 70% of the total variance in the predictor fields. We have tested several linear and non-linear statistical methods. While the regularized Ridge Regression and Lasso Regression can generally capture the spatial pattern and magnitude of rainfall anomalies, we found that that Neural Network performs best with an accuracy greater than 80%, as expected from the non-linear dependence of the rainfall on the large-scale atmospheric thermodynamic conditions and circulation. Further tests of various prediction skill metrics and hindcasts also suggest this Neural Network prediction approach can significantly improve seasonal prediction skill than the dynamic predictions and regression based statistical predictions. Thus, this statistical prediction system could have shown potential to improve real-time seasonal rainfall predictions in the future.