The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

1999-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Combining satellite lidar, airborne lidar, and ground plots to estimate the amount and distribution of aboveground biomass in the boreal forest of North America 1

Treesearch

Hank A. Margolis; Ross F. Nelson; Paul M. Montesano; André Beaudoin; Guoqing Sun; Hans-Erik Andersen; Michael A. Wulder

2015-01-01

We report estimates of the amount, distribution, and uncertainty of aboveground biomass (AGB) of the different ecoregions and forest land cover classes within the North American boreal forest, analyze the factors driving the error estimates, and compare our estimates with other reported values. A three-phase sampling strategy was used (i) to tie ground plot AGB to...

Hillslope soil erosion estimated from aerosol concentrations, North Halawa Valley, Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, B.R.; Fuller, C.C.; DeCarlo, E.H.

1997-01-01

Concentrations of aerosolic quartz and 137Cs were used to estimate rates of hillslope soil erosion during 1990-91 in the North Halawa Valley on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Fluvial transport of quartz was estimated to be 6.1 Mg in 1990 and 14.9 Mg in 1991. Fluvial transport of 137Cs from North Halawa Valley was estimated to be 1.29 ?? 109 pCi in 1991. Results were used with quartz contents, 137Cs activities, and bulk densities of hillslope soils to compute rates of basinwide hillslope soil erosion ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 mm yr-1. These rates are within the range of previous estimates of denudation computed for drainage basins on Oahu. The aerosol-concentration approach, therefore, is a useful method for assessing basinwide soil erosion.

Impact of revised and potential future albedo estimates on CCSM3 simulations of growing-season surface temperature fields for North America

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman; David Y. Hollinger; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bain; Shiyuan. Zhong

2010-01-01

Recently published albedo research has resulted in improved growing-season albedo estimates for forest and grassland vegetation. The impact of these improved estimates on the ability of climate models to simulate growing-season surface temperature patterns is unknown. We have developed a set of current-climate surface temperature scenarios for North America using the...

Cross-cultural similarities and differences in North Americans' geographic location judgments.

PubMed

Friedman, Alinda; Kerkman, Dennis D; Brown, Norman R; Stea, David; Cappello, Hector M

2005-12-01

We examined some potential causes of bias in geographic location estimates by comparing location estimates of North American cities made by Canadian, U.S., and Mexican university students. All three groups placed most Mexican cities near the equator, which implies that all three groups were influenced by shared beliefs about the locations of geographical regions relative to global reference points. However, the groups divided North America into different regions and differed in the relative accuracy of the estimates within them, which implies that there was an influence of culture-specific knowledge. The data support a category-based system of plausible reasoning, in which biases in judgments are multiply determined, and underscore the utility of the estimation paradigm as a tool in cross-cultural cognitive research.

North American CO2 fluxes for 2007-2015 from NOAA's CarbonTracker-Lagrange Regional Inverse Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, A. E.; Hu, L.; Thoning, K. W.; Nehrkorn, T.; Mountain, M. E.; Jacobson, A. R.; Michalak, A.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Worthy, D. E. J.; Miller, J. B.; Fischer, M. L.; Biraud, S.; van der Velde, I. R.; Basu, S.; Tans, P. P.

2017-12-01

CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) is a new high-resolution regional inverse modeling system for improved estimation of North American CO2 fluxes. CT-L uses footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by high-resolution (10 to 30 km) meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We performed a suite of synthetic-data experiments to evaluate a variety of inversion configurations, including (1) solving for scaling factors to an a priori flux versus additive corrections, (2) solving for fluxes at 3-hrly resolution versus at coarser temporal resolution, (3) solving for fluxes at 1o × 1o resolution versus at large eco-regional scales. Our framework explicitly and objectively solves for the optimal solution with a full error covariance matrix with maximum likelihood estimation, thereby enabling rigorous uncertainty estimates for the derived fluxes. In the synthetic-data inversions, we find that solving for weekly scaling factors of a priori Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) at 1o × 1o resolution with optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes yields faithful retrieval of the specified "true" fluxes as those solved at 3-hrly resolution. In contrast, a scheme that does not allow for optimization of diurnal cycles of CO2 fluxes suffered from larger aggregation errors. We then applied the optimal inversion setup to estimate North American fluxes for 2007-2015 using real atmospheric CO2 observations, multiple prior estimates of NEE, and multiple boundary values estimated from the NOAA's global Eulerian CarbonTracker (CarbonTracker) and from an empirical approach. Our derived North American land CO2 fluxes show larger seasonal amplitude than those estimated from the CarbonTracker, removing seasonal biases in the CarbonTracker's simulated CO2 mole fractions. Independent evaluations using in-situ CO2 eddy covariance flux measurements and independent aircraft profiles also suggest an improved estimation on North American CO2 fluxes from CT-L. Furthermore, our derived CO2 flux anomalies over North America corresponding to the 2012 North American drought and the 2015 El Niño are larger than derived by the CarbonTracker. They also indicate different responses of ecosystems to those anomalous climatic events.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The central purpose of this report is to present methods : for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on : urban and small, rural streams in the Southeast United States : with particular focus on Georgia, South Carolina, and North : Carolin...

A spatially explicit estimate of the prewhaling abundance of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

PubMed

Monsarrat, Sophie; Pennino, M Grazia; Smith, Tim D; Reeves, Randall R; Meynard, Christine N; Kaplan, David M; Rodrigues, Ana S L

2016-08-01

The North Atlantic right whale (NARW) (Eubalaena glacialis) is one of the world's most threatened whales. It came close to extinction after nearly a millennium of exploitation and currently persists as a population of only approximately 500 individuals. Setting appropriate conservation targets for this species requires an understanding of its historical population size, as a baseline for measuring levels of depletion and progress toward recovery. This is made difficult by the scarcity of records over this species' long whaling history. We sought to estimate the preexploitation population size of the North Atlantic right whale and understand how this species was distributed across its range. We used a spatially explicit data set on historical catches of North Pacific right whales (NPRWs) (Eubalaena japonica) to model the relationship between right whale relative density and the environment during the summer feeding season. Assuming the 2 right whale species select similar environments, we projected this model to the North Atlantic to predict how the relative abundance of NARWs varied across their range. We calibrated these relative abundances with estimates of the NPRW total prewhaling population size to obtain high and low estimates for the overall NARW population size prior to exploitation. The model predicted 9,075-21,328 right whales in the North Atlantic. The current NARW population is thus <6% of the historical North Atlantic carrying capacity and has enormous potential for recovery. According to the model, in June-September NARWs concentrated in 2 main feeding areas: east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Norwegian Sea. These 2 areas may become important in the future as feeding grounds and may already be used more regularly by this endangered species than is thought. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data

Treesearch

Daniel J. Hayes; David P. Turner; Graham Stinson; A. David Mcguire; Yaxing Wei; Tristram O. West; Linda S. Heath; Bernardus Dejong; Brian G. McConkey; Richard A. Birdsey; Werner A. Kurz; Andrew R. Jacobson; Deborah N. Huntzinger; Yude Pan; W. Mac Post; Robert B. Cook

2012-01-01

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000-2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2,...

A revised estimate of Pacific-North America motion and implications for Western North America plate boundary zone tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demets, Charles; Gordon, Richard G.; Stein, Seth; Argus, Donald F.

1987-01-01

Marine magnetic profiles from the Gulf of Californa are studied in order to revise the estimate of Pacific-North America motion. It is found that since 3 Ma spreading has averaged 48 mm/yr, consistent with a new global plate motion model derived without any data. The present data suggest that strike-slip motion on faults west of the San Andreas is less than previously thought, reducing the San Andreas discrepancy with geodetic, seismological, and other geologic observations.

A basis for bias in geographical judgments.

PubMed

Friedman, Alinda; Brown, Norman R; McGaffey, Aaron P

2002-03-01

To determine why North Americans tend to locate European cities south of North American cities at similar latitudes (Tversky, 1981), we had observers provide bearing estimates between cities in the U.S. and Europe. Earlier research using latitude estimates of these cities has indicated that each continent has several subjective regions (Friedman & Brown, 2000a). Participants judged cities from two subjectively northern regions (Milwaukee-Munich), two subjectively southern regions (Memphis-Lisbon), and the two "crossed" regions (Albuquerque-Geneva; Minneapolis-Rome). Estimates were biased only when cities from the subjectively northern regions of North America were paired with cities from the subjectively southern region of Europe. In contrast to the view that biases are derived from distorted or aligned map-like representations, the data provide evidence that the subjective representation of global geography is principally categorical. Biases in numerical location estimates of individual cities and in bearing estimates between city pairs are derived from plausible reasoning processes operating on the same categorical representations.

Assessment of potential oil and gas resources in source rocks of the Alaska North Slope, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, David W.; Rouse, William A.; Garrity, Christopher P.; Whidden, Katherine J.; Dumoulin, Julie A.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Kirschbaum, Mark A.; Pollastro, Richard M.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated potential, technically recoverable oil and gas resources for source rocks of the Alaska North Slope. Estimates (95-percent to 5-percent probability) range from zero to 2 billion barrels of oil and from zero to nearly 80 trillion cubic feet of gas.

North Dakota's forest resources in 2002.

Treesearch

David Haugen; Gary Brand; Travis Rymal; Michael Kangas

2004-01-01

Results of the combined 2001 and 2002 annual forest inventories of North Dakota show over 824 thousand acres of forest land. There are an estimated 744 million cubic feet of all live tree volume, or approximately 902 cubic feet per acre of forest land. Timberland totals 696 million acres with an estimated 409 million cubic feet of growing-stock volume, or...

Forest disturbance and North American carbon flux

Treesearch

S. N. Goward; J. G. Masek; W. Cohen; G. Moisen; G. J. Collatz; S. Healey; R. A. Houghton; C. Huang; R. Kennedy; B. Law; S. Powell; D. Turner; M. A. Wulder

2008-01-01

North America's forests are thought to be a significant sink for atmospheric carbon. Currently, the rate of sequestration by forests on the continent has been estimated at 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year, though the uncertainty about this estimate is nearly 50%. This offsets about 13% of the fossil fuel emissions from the continent [Pacala et al., 2007]. However...

ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION IN NORTH AMERICAN LAKES: ATTENUATION ESTIMATES FROM DOC MEASUREMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PLANKTON COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

Climate warming in North America is likely to be accompanied by changes in other environmental stresses such as UV-B radiation. We apply an empirical model to available DOC (dissolved organic C) data to estimate the depths to which 1% of surface UV-B and UV-A radiation penetrate ...

Predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) - Predictions from models on gastric evacuation and bioenergetics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansson, S.; Rudstam, L. G.; Kitchell, J.F.; Hilden, M.; Johnson, B.L.; Peppard, P.E.

1996-01-01

We compared four different methods for estimating predation rates by North Sea cod (Gadus moi hua). Three estimates, based on gastric evacuation rates, came from an ICES multispecies working group and the fourth from a bioenergetics model. The bioenergetics model was developed from a review of literature on cod physiology. The three gastric evacuation rate models produced very different prey consumption estimates for small (2 kg) fish. For most size and age classes, the bioenergetics model predicted food consumption rates intermediate to those predicted by the gastric evacuation models. Using the standard ICES model and the average population abundance and age structure for 1974-1989, annual, prey consumption by the North Sea cod population (age greater than or equal to 1) was 840 kilotons. The other two evacuation rate models produced estimates of 1020 and 1640 kilotons, respectively. The bioenergetics model estimate was 1420 kilotons. The major differences between models were due to consumption rate estimates for younger age groups of cod. (C) 1996 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea

Regional regression equations to estimate peak-flow frequency at sites in North Dakota using data through 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams-Sether, Tara

2015-08-06

Annual peak-flow frequency data from 231 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in North Dakota and parts of Montana, South Dakota, and Minnesota, with 10 or more years of unregulated peak-flow record, were used to develop regional regression equations for exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 using generalized least-squares techniques. Updated peak-flow frequency estimates for 262 streamflow-gaging stations were developed using data through 2009 and log-Pearson Type III procedures outlined by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. An average generalized skew coefficient was determined for three hydrologic zones in North Dakota. A StreamStats web application was developed to estimate basin characteristics for the regional regression equation analysis. Methods for estimating a weighted peak-flow frequency for gaged sites and ungaged sites are presented.

The significance of the north water polynya to arctic top predators.

PubMed

Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Burt, Louise M; Hansen, Rikke Guldborg; Nielsen, Nynne Hjort; Rasmussen, Marianne; Fossette, Sabrina; Stern, Harry

2013-09-01

The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20'N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811-2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761-15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077-2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322-10 893) and 9529 (5460-16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12-292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).

Test of partners in flight effective detection distance for Cerulean Warbler / Evaluación de distancia efectiva de detección para la Reinita Cerúlea (Dendroica cerulea) seleccionada por Compañeros En Vuelo

Treesearch

Paul Hamel; Melinda J. Welton; Carl G. Smith; Robert R. Ford

2008-01-01

Estimation of population sizes of North American avian species has been attempted in the North American Landbird Conservation Plan. Such estimated numbers have considerable conservation value as starting points to estimate extinction probability, as was done for Cerulean Warbler (Dendroica cerulea) during the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service evaluation of the petition to...

The Ability of Atmospheric Data to Reduce Disagreements in Wetland Methane Flux Estimates over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, S. M.; Andrews, A. E.; Benmergui, J. S.; Commane, R.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Melton, J. R.; Michalak, A. M.; Sweeney, C.; Worthy, D. E. J.

2015-12-01

Existing estimates of methane fluxes from wetlands differ in both magnitude and distribution across North America. We discuss seven different bottom-up methane estimates in the context of atmospheric methane data collected across the US and Canada. In the first component of this study, we explore whether the observation network can even detect a methane pattern from wetlands. We find that the observation network can identify a methane pattern from Canadian wetlands but not reliably from US wetlands. Over Canada, the network can even identify spatial patterns at multi-provence scales. Over the US, by contrast, anthropogenic emissions and modeling errors obscure atmospheric patterns from wetland fluxes. In the second component of the study, we then use these observations to reconcile disagreements in the magnitude, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution of existing estimates. Most existing estimates predict fluxes that are too large with a seasonal cycle that is too narrow. A model known as LPJ-Bern has a spatial distribution most consistent with atmospheric observations. By contrast, a spatially-constant model outperforms the distribution of most existing flux estimates across Canada. The results presented here provide several pathways to reduce disagreements among existing wetland flux estimates across North America.

Estimate of radiocaesium derived FNPP1 accident in the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inomata, Yayoi; Aoyama, Michio; Tsubono, Takaki; Tsumune, Daisuke; Yamada, Masatoshi

2017-04-01

134Cs and 137Cs (radiocaesium) were released to the North Pacific Ocean by direct discharge and atmospheric deposition released from the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident in 2011. After the FNPP1 accident, measurements of 134Cs and 137Cs were conducted by many researches. However, those results are only snapshots in order to interpret the distribution and transport of the released radiocaesium on a basin scale. It is recognized that estimation of the total amount of released 134Cs and 137Cs is necessary to assess the radioecological impacts of their release on the environment. It was reported that the inventory of 134Cs or 137Cs on the North Pacific Ocean after the FNPP1 accident was 15.2-18.3 PBq based on the observations (Aoyama et al., 2016a), 15.3±1.6 PBq by OI analysis (Inomata et al., 2016), 16.1±1.64 PBq by global ocean model (Tsubono et al., 2016). These suggest that more than 75 % of the atmospheric-released radiocaesium (15.2-20.4 PBq; Aoyama et al., 2016a) were deposited on the North Pacific Ocean. The radiocaesium from the atmospheric fallout and direct discharge were expected to mixing as well as diluting near the coastal region and transported eastward across the North Pacific Ocean in the surface layer. Furthermore, radicaesium were rapidly mixed and penetrated into the subsurface water in the North Pacific Ocean in winter. It was revealed that these radiocaesium existed in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW, Aoyama et al., 2016b; Kaeriyama et al., 2016) and Central Mode Water (CMW, Aoyama et al., 2016b), suggesting that mode water formation and subduction are efficient pathway for the transport of FNPP1 derived radiocaesium into the ocean interior within 1-year timescale. Kaeriyama et al. (2016) estimated the total amount of FNPP1 derived radiocaesium in the STMW was 4.2 ± 1.1 PBq in October-November 2012. However, there is no estimation of the amount of radiocaesium in the CMW. Therefore, it is impossible to discuss about the mass balance of radiocaesium injected into the North Pacific Ocean. In this study, we conducted the optimum interpolation (OI) analysis to estimate the inventory of radiocaesium in the ocean interior as well as surface sweater by using the measured activities. Furthermore, transport speed of radiocaesium in the surface layer in the North Pacific Ocean were also estimated. The data used in this study were derived from all of the available data reported by such as the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), and voluntary cargo ships. The data analysis period was until December 2015 after the FNPP1 accident. It was found that the radiocaesium across the North Pacific Ocean were reached to 180˚ E around 40˚ N latitude at July, 2012 by OI analysis. The transport speed was estimated to 8.5 cm s-1. These were reached to the coastal site of America continent and the activities were increased after the year of 2014. The transport speed across 70˚ W (40˚ N latitude) was decreased to 5.2 cm s-1. We estimated the inventory of radiocaesium in the surface seawater (depth; 0-100m) during the periods from August to December, 2012, based on the OI analysis. Amount of 134Cs inventory was estimated to 4.7 PBq with decay-corrected to 1 October 2012 (7.9 PBq at the time on 11 March 2011). (In the case of 137Cs, the inventory was estimated to 12.5 PBq with decay-corrected to 1 October 2012 and 13 PBq at the time on 11 March 2011 which includes pre-Fukushima 137Cs derived from atmospheric weapons test conducted in late 1950s and eraly 1960s). These correspond to 43-53% of the injected 134Cs in the North Pacific Ocean. It was reported that the 4.2±1.1 PBq of 134Cs were distributed in the STMW (Kaeriyama et al., 2016), which corresponds to 22-28% of the injected 134Cs in the North Pacific Ocean. Taking into account these estimation, FNPP1 derived radiocaesium existed in the CMW in the North Pacific Ocean would be about 3-6 PBq. (References) Aoyama, M., Hamajima, Y., Hult, M., Uematsu, M., Oka, E., . 2016. 134Cs and 137Cs in the North Pacific Ocean derived from the March 2011 TEPCO Fukushima Dai-Ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, Japan. Part one: surface pathway and vertical distributions. J. Oceanogr. 72:53-65. Aoyama, M., Kajino, M., Tanaka, T. Y., Sekiyama, T.T., Tsumune, D., Tsubono, T., Hamajima, Y., Inomata, Y., Gamo, T., .2016. 134Cs and 137Cs in the North Pacific Ocean derived from the March 2011 TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident, Japan. Part two: estimation of 134Cs and 137Cs inventories in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Oceanogr. 72:53-65. Inomata, Y., Aoyama, M., Tsubono, T., Tsumune, D., Hirose, K. 2016. Spatial and temporal distributions of 134Cs and 137Cs derived from the TEPCOFukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in the North Pacific Ocean by using optimal interpolation analysis. Environ. Sci. Process. Impacts 18:126-36. Tsubono, T., Misumi. K., Tsumune, D., Bryan, F.O., Hirose, K., Aoyama, M. 2016. Evaluation of radioactive cesium impact from atmospheric deposition and direct release fluxes into the North Pacific from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Deep-Sea Res. I. 115:10-21. Kaeriyama, H., Shimizu, Y., Setou, T., Kumamoto, Y., Okazaki, M., Ambe, D., Ono, T. 2016. Intrusion of Fukushima-derived radiocaesium into subsurface water due to formation of mode waters in the North Pacific. Sci. Report., 6:22010 | DOI: 10.1038/srep22010.

Lincoln estimates of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance in North America.

PubMed

Alisauskas, Ray T; Arnold, Todd W; Leafloor, James O; Otis, David L; Sedinger, James S

2014-01-01

Estimates of range-wide abundance, harvest, and harvest rate are fundamental for sound inferences about the role of exploitation in the dynamics of free-ranging wildlife populations, but reliability of existing survey methods for abundance estimation is rarely assessed using alternative approaches. North American mallard populations have been surveyed each spring since 1955 using internationally coordinated aerial surveys, but population size can also be estimated with Lincoln's method using banding and harvest data. We estimated late summer population size of adult and juvenile male and female mallards in western, midcontinent, and eastern North America using Lincoln's method of dividing (i) total estimated harvest, [Formula: see text], by estimated harvest rate, [Formula: see text], calculated as (ii) direct band recovery rate, [Formula: see text], divided by the (iii) band reporting rate, [Formula: see text]. Our goal was to compare estimates based on Lincoln's method with traditional estimates based on aerial surveys. Lincoln estimates of adult males and females alive in the period June-September were 4.0 (range: 2.5-5.9), 1.8 (range: 0.6-3.0), and 1.8 (range: 1.3-2.7) times larger than respective aerial survey estimates for the western, midcontinent, and eastern mallard populations, and the two population estimates were only modestly correlated with each other (western: r = 0.70, 1993-2011; midcontinent: r = 0.54, 1961-2011; eastern: r = 0.50, 1993-2011). Higher Lincoln estimates are predictable given that the geographic scope of inference from Lincoln estimates is the entire population range, whereas sampling frames for aerial surveys are incomplete. Although each estimation method has a number of important potential biases, our review suggests that underestimation of total population size by aerial surveys is the most likely explanation. In addition to providing measures of total abundance, Lincoln's method provides estimates of fecundity and population sex ratio and could be used in integrated population models to provide greater insights about population dynamics and management of North American mallards and most other harvested species.

Underride safety protection: benefit-cost assessment of rear-impact guards for the North Dakota farm truck fleet.

PubMed

Vachal, Kimberly; Tumuhairwe, Esther K; Berwick, Mark

2009-04-01

The North Dakota Legislature recently passed a law exempting the state's agricultural truck fleet from a federal safety program requirement for rear-guard equipment on large trucks. This equipment has been shown to reduce crash severity when a passenger vehicle collides with the rear of the truck. This study uses truck fleet, truck crash, and injury severity data to estimate the public safety benefit derived from passenger-vehicle underride protection during rear-end crashes involving large agricultural trucks in North Dakota. A benefit-cost analysis of crash injury avoidance is developed based on the frequency and severity of rear-end truck collisions in North Dakota between 2001 and 2007. The injury avoidance benefits and commercial vehicle safety grant benefits are estimated to be $11.4 to $20.2 million during the seven-year depreciable truck life. The public safety benefits for rear-impact guards are higher than the estimated lifetime cost for the equipment and maintenance of $8.1 million.

Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in the West Korea Bay–North Yellow Sea Basin, North Korea and China, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Christopher J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Mercier, Tracey J.; Hawkins, Sarah J.; Finn, Thomas M.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Marra, Kristen R.; Klett, Timothy R.; Le, Phuong A.; Leathers-Miller, Heidi M.; Woodall, Cheryl A.

2017-07-11

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered, technically recoverable conventional resources of 1.1 billion barrels of oil and 2.2 trillion cubic feet of gas in the West Korea Bay–North Yellow Sea Basin, North Korea and China.

Infectious disease risks among refugees from North Korea.

PubMed

Nishiura, Hiroshi; Lee, Hyojung; Yuan, Baoyin; Endo, Akira; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-01-01

The characteristics of disease in North Korea, including severe malnutrition and infectious disease risks, have not been openly and widely analyzed. This study was performed to estimate the risks of infectious diseases among refugees from North Korea. A literature review of clinical studies among North Korean defectors was conducted to statistically estimate the risks of infectious diseases among North Korean subjects. A total of six groups of data from five publications covering the years 2004 to 2014 were identified. Tuberculosis and viral hepatitis appeared to be the two most common infectious diseases, especially among adult refugees. When comparing the risks of infectious diseases between North Korean and Syrian refugees, it is critical to remember that Plasmodium vivax malaria has been endemic in North Korea, while cutaneous leishmaniasis has frequently been seen among Syrian migrants. Valuable datasets from health surveys of defectors were reviewed. In addition to tuberculosis and viral hepatitis, which were found to be the two most common infectious diseases, a special characteristic of North Korean defectors was Plasmodium vivax malaria. This needs to be added to the list of differential diagnoses for pyretic patients. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A simple tool for estimating throughfall nitrogen deposition in forests of western North America using lichens

Treesearch

Heather T. Root; Linda H. Geiser; Mark E. Fenn; Sarah Jovan; Martin A. Hutten; Suraj Ahuja; Karen Dillman; David Schirokauer; Shanti Berryman; Jill A. McMurray

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition has had substantial impacts on forests of North America. Managers seek to monitor deposition to identify areas of concern and establish critical loads, which define the amount of deposition that can be tolerated by ecosystems without causing substantial harm. We present a new monitoring approach that estimates throughfall inorganic...

Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling.

Treesearch

Christine Wiedinmyer; Brad Quayle; Chris Geron; Angie Belote; Don McKenzie; Xiaoyang Zhang; Susan O' Neill; Kristina Klos Wynne

2006-01-01

Fires contribute substantial emissions of trace gases and particles to the atmosphere. These emissions can impact air quality and even climate. We have developed a modeling framework to estimate the emissions from fires in North and parts of Central America (10-71 ˚N and 55-175 ˚W) by taking advantage of a combination of complementary satellite and...

Evaluation of drainage-area ratio method used to estimate streamflow for the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota and Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Emerson, Douglas G.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Dahl, Ann L.

2005-01-01

The drainage-area ratio method commonly is used to estimate streamflow for sites where no streamflow data were collected. To evaluate the validity of the drainage-area ratio method and to determine if an improved method could be developed to estimate streamflow, a multiple-regression technique was used to determine if drainage area, main channel slope, and precipitation were significant variables for estimating streamflow in the Red River of the North Basin. A separate regression analysis was performed for streamflow for each of three seasons-- winter, spring, and summer. Drainage area and summer precipitation were the most significant variables. However, the regression equations generally overestimated streamflows for North Dakota stations and underestimated streamflows for Minnesota stations. To correct the bias in the residuals for the two groups of stations, indicator variables were included to allow both the intercept and the coefficient for the logarithm of drainage area to depend on the group. Drainage area was the only significant variable in the revised regression equations. The exponents for the drainage-area ratio were 0.85 for the winter season, 0.91 for the spring season, and 1.02 for the summer season.

Long-term health experience of jet engine manufacturing workers: VI: incidence of malignant central nervous system neoplasms in relation to estimated workplace exposures.

PubMed

Marsh, Gary M; Youk, Ada O; Buchanich, Jeanine M; Xu, Hui; Downing, Sarah; Kennedy, Kathleen J; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hancock, Roger P; Lacey, Steven E; Fleissner, Mary Lou

2013-06-01

To determine whether glioblastoma (GB) incidence rates among jet engine manufacturing workers were associated with specific chemical or physical exposures. Subjects were 210,784 workers employed from 1952 to 2001. We conducted a cohort incidence study and two nested case-control studies with focus on the North Haven facility where we previously observed a not statistically significant overall elevation in GB rates. We estimated individual-level exposure metrics for 11 agents. In the total cohort, none of the agent metrics considered was associated with increased GB risk. The GB incidence rates in North Haven were also not related to workplace exposures, including the "blue haze" exposure unique to North Haven. If not due to chance alone, GB rates in North Haven may reflect external occupational factors, nonoccupational factors, or workplace factors unique to North Haven unmeasured in the current evaluation.

Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

Tree biomass in the North Central Region.

Treesearch

Gerhard K. Raile; Pamela J. Jakes

1982-01-01

Methods for calculating tree biomass are outlined, and the biomass on commercial forest land is estimated for 11 north-central states. Tree biomass in the North Central Region totals 3.6 billion tons, or 50 tons per commercial forest acre. For all species, total tree biomass is concentrated in growing-stock boles.

Summary of U.S. Geological Survey studies conducted in cooperation with the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, central Oklahoma, 2011–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, William J.; Becker, Carol J.; Ryter, Derek W.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2016-01-19

Numerical groundwater-flow models were created to characterize flow systems in aquifers underlying this study area and areas of particular interest within the study area. Those models were used to estimate sustainable groundwater yields from parts of the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer, characterize groundwater/surface-water interactions, and estimate the effects of a 10-year simulated drought on streamflows and water levels in alluvial and bedrock aquifers. Pumping of wells at the Iron Horse Industrial Park was estimated to cause negligible infiltration of water from the adjoining North Canadian River. A 10-year simulated drought of 50 percent of normal recharge was tested for the period 1990–2000. For this period, the total amount of groundwater in storage was estimated to decrease by 8.6 percent in the North Canadian River alluvial aquifer and approximately 0.2 percent in the Central Oklahoma aquifer, and groundwater flow to streams was estimated to decrease by 28–37 percent. This volume of groundwater loss showed that the Central Oklahoma aquifer is a bedrock aquifer that has relatively low rates of recharge from the land surface. The simulated drought decreased simulated streamflow, composed of base flow, in the North Canadian River at Shawnee, Okla., which did not recover to predrought conditions until the relatively wet year of 2007 after the simulated drought period.

A review of the population estimation approach of the North American landbird conservation plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Howe, Frank P.; James, Frances C.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Reed, Eric T.; Sauer, John R.; Thompson, Frank R.

2006-01-01

As part of their development of a continental plan for monitoring landbirds (Rich et al. 2004), Partners in Flight (PIF) applied a new method to make preliminary estimates of population size for all 448 species of landbirds present in the continental United States and Canada (Table 1). Estimation of the global population size of North American landbirds was intended to (1) identify the degree of vulnerability of each species, (2) provide estimates of the current population size for each species, and (3) provide a starting point for estimating population sizes in states, provinces, territories, and Bird Conservation Regions (Rich et al. 2004). A method proposed by Rosenberg and Blancher (2005) was used to derive population estimates from available survey data. To enhance the credibility of these estimates, PIF organized a review of the methodology used to estimate North American landbird population sizes. A planning committee selected members from the ornithological and biometrical communities (hereafter “the panel”), with the aim of selecting individuals from academia, state natural-resource agencies, and the U.S. and Canadian federal governments, including the Canadian Wildlife Service, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service.The panel addressed three questions: (1) Were the methods of population estimation proposed by PIF reasonable? (2) What actions could be taken to improve the data or analyses on which the PIF population estimates were based? and (3) How should the PIF population estimates be interpreted?

Forest growth of Mississippi's north unit - A case study of the Southern Forest surveys growth estimation procedures

Treesearch

Dennis M. May

1988-01-01

This report presents the procedures by which the Southern Forest Inventory and Analysis unit estimates forest growth from permanent horizontal point samples. Inventory data from the 1977-87 survey of Mississippi's north unit were used to demonstrate how trees on the horizontal point samples are classified into one of eight components of growth and, in turn, how...

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Sakhalin Basin Province, Russia, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Wandrey, Craig J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Pitman, Janet K.; Pollastro, Richard M.; Cook, Troy A.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2011-01-01

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated volumes of undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional petroleum resources for the North Sakhalin Basin Province of Russia. The mean volumes were estimated at 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil, 43.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 0.8 billion barrels of natural gas liquids.

Updated Estimates of Glacier Mass Change for Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Gardner, A. S.; Howat, I.; Berthier, E.; Dehecq, A.; Noh, M. J.; Pelto, B. M.

2017-12-01

Alpine glaciers are critical components in Western North America's hydrologic cycle. We use varied remotely-sensed datasets to provide updated mass change estimates for Region 2 of the Randolf Glacier Inventory (RGI-02 - all North American glaciers outside of Alaska). Our datasets include: i) aerial laser altimetry surveys completed over many thousands of square kilometers; and ii) multiple Terabytes of high resolution optical stereo imagery (World View 1-3 and Pleiades). Our data from the period 2014-2017 includes the majority of glaciers in RGI-02, specifically those ice masses in the Rocky Mountains (US and Canada), Interior Ranges in British Columbia and the Cascade Mountains (Washington). We co-registered and bias corrected the recent surface models to the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mapping (SRTM) data acquired in February, 2000. In British Columbia, our estimates of mass change are within the uncertainty estimates obtained for the period 1985-2000, but estimates from some regions indicate accelerated mass loss. Work is also underway to update glacier mass change estimates for glaciers in Washington and Montana. Finally, we use re-analysis data (ERA interim and ERA5) to evaluate the meteorological drivers that explain the temporal and spatial variability of mass change evident in our analysis.

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

2009-01-01

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

Forests of North Dakota, 2013

Treesearch

David E. Haugen

2014-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the North Dakota Forest Service. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of North Carolina, 2013

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown

2015-01-01

This periodic resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Carolina based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Southern Research Station in cooperation with the North Carolina Forest Service. Data estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design...

Forest of North Dakota, 2016

Treesearch

David E. Haugen

2017-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program within the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the North Dakota Forest Service. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of North Carolina, 2014

Treesearch

Mark Brown; Samuel Lambert

2016-01-01

This periodic resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Carolina based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Southern Research Station in cooperation with the North Carolina Forest Service. Data estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design...

Forests of North Dakota, 2017

Treesearch

Charles S. Paulson

2018-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program within the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the North Dakota Forest Service. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Forests of North Dakota, 2014

Treesearch

D.E. Haugen; S.A. Pugh

2014-01-01

This resource update provides an overview of forest resources in North Dakota based on an inventory conducted by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station in cooperation with the North Dakota Forest Service. Estimates are based on field data collected using the FIA annualized sample design and are updated...

Subspecies composition of sandhill crane harvest in North Dakota, 1968-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Johnson, D.H.; Kohn, S.C.; Urbanek, R.P.; Stahlecker, D.W.

1997-01-01

North Dakota is a major fall staging area for the Midcontinent Population of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis), which is composed of three subspecies: the greater (G. c. tabida), Canadian (G. c. rowani), and lesser (G. c. canadensis). The number of cranes killed by hunters in North Dakota averaged 6,793 during 1990-94 seasons, ranking second highest among crane-hunting states. The distribution of harvest among subspecies is important, due to concerns about the poorly known status of these subspecies, especially the greater. We estimated subspecies composition of the harvest in North Dakota using morphometric data collected from field samples of birds harvested since 1968. Subspecies composition varied both spatially (across counties from east to west) and temporally (among 3 periods of distinct harvest regulations and within season). Lessers predominated in the west and Canadians and greaters in the east. For the 1990-94 period we estimated that mortality due to hunting in North Dakota averaged at least 1,085 (18%) greaters, 2,138 (36%) Canadians, and 2,716 (46%) lessers.

Childhood Obesity and Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James B. Hunt Jr. Institute for Educational Leadership and Policy, 2008

2008-01-01

Childhood obesity is on the rise across the country and in North Carolina, with four times as many children exhibiting signs of obesity now as they did 20 years ago. The costs in terms of medical expenses are staggering, with one estimate putting the cost to North Carolina at $16 million a year. Some North Carolina legislators have expressed…

Assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Heath Formation, central Montana and western North Dakota, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drake, Ronald M.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Klett, Timothy R.; Le, Phuong A.; Leathers, Heidi M.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Finn, Thomas M.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Marra, Kristen R.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2017-06-07

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 884 million barrels of oil and 106 billion cubic feet of gas in the North-Central Montana and Williston Basin Provinces of central Montana and western North Dakota.

The carbon balance of North American wetlands

Treesearch

Scott D. Bridgham; J. Patrick Megonigal; Jason K. Keller; Norman b. Bliss; Carl Trettin

2006-01-01

We examine the carbon balance of North American wetlands by reviewing and synthesizing the published literature and soil databases. North American wetlands contain about 220 Pg C, most of which is in peat. They are a small to moderate carbon sink of about 49 Tg C yr-l, although the uncertainty around this estimate is greater than 100%, with the...

North Dakota's forests, 2005: statistics, methods, and quality assurance

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; David E. Haugen; Charles J. Barnett

2011-01-01

The first full annual inventory of North Dakota's forests was completed in 2005 after 7,622 plots were selected and 164 forested plots were visited and measured. This report includes detailed information on forest inventory methods and data quality estimates. Important resource statistics are included in the tables. A detailed analysis of the North Dakota...

Time Series Model Identification by Estimating Information, Memory, and Quantiles.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-01

Standards, Sect. D, 68D, 937-951. Parzen, Emanuel (1969) "Multiple time series modeling" Multivariate Analysis - II, edited by P. Krishnaiah , Academic... Krishnaiah , North Holland: Amsterdam, 283-295. Parzen, Emanuel (1979) "Forecasting and Whitening Filter Estimation" TIMS Studies in the Management...principle. Applications of Statistics, P. R. Krishnaiah , ed. North Holland: Amsterdam, 27-41. Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1970) Time Series Analysis

Distribution and sources of polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in the River Rhine watershed.

PubMed

Möller, Axel; Ahrens, Lutz; Surm, Renate; Westerveld, Joke; van der Wielen, Frans; Ebinghaus, Ralf; de Voogt, Pim

2010-10-01

The concentration profile of 40 polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in surface water along the River Rhine watershed from the Lake Constance to the North Sea was investigated. The aim of the study was to investigate the influence of point as well as diffuse sources, to estimate fluxes of PFAS into the North Sea and to identify replacement compounds of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). In addition, an interlaboratory comparison of the method performance was conducted. The PFAS pattern was dominated by perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS) and perfluorobutanoic acid (PFBA) with concentrations up to 181 ng/L and 335 ng/L, respectively, which originated from industrial point sources. Fluxes of SigmaPFAS were estimated to be approximately 6 tonnes/year which is much higher than previous estimations. Both, the River Rhine and the River Scheldt, seem to act as important sources of PFAS into the North Sea. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The carbon balance of North American wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridgham, S.D.; Megonigal, J.P.; Keller, J.K.; Bliss, N.B.; Trettin, C.

2006-01-01

We examine the carbon balance of North American wetlands by reviewing and synthesizing the published literature and soil databases. North American wetlands contain about 220 Pg C, most of which is in peat. They are a small to moderate carbon sink of about 49 Tg C yr-1, although the uncertainty around this estimate is greater than 100%, with the largest unknown being the role of carbon sequestration by sedimentation in freshwater mineral-soil wetlands. We estimate that North American wetlands emit 9 Tg methane (CH 4) yr-1; however, the uncertainty of this estimate is also greater than 100%. With the exception of estuarine wetlands, CH4 emissions from wetlands may largely offset any positive benefits of carbon sequestration in soils and plants in terms of climate forcing. Historically, the destruction of wetlands through land-use changes has had the largest effects on the carbon fluxes and consequent radiative forcing of North American wetlands. The primary effects have been a reduction in their ability to sequester carbon (a small to moderate increase in radiative forcing), oxidation of their soil carbon reserves upon drainage (a small increase in radiative forcing), and reduction in CH4 emissions (a small to large decrease in radiative forcing). It is uncertain how global changes will affect the carbon pools and fluxes of North American wetlands. We will not be able to predict accurately the role of wetlands as potential positive or negative feedbacks to anthropogenic global change without knowing the integrative effects of changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur on the carbon balance of North American wetlands. 

Anthropogenic CO2 invasion into the northeast Pacific based on concurrent δ13CDIC and nutrient profiles from the California Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, J. D.; Mix, A. C.; Wheeler, P. A.; Key, R. M.

2000-09-01

The stable isotopic signature of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDIC) in the northeast Pacific Ocean is lower in near-surface waters by ≈1.1‰ relative to values predicted from global oceanic trends of δ13CDIC versus nutrients. A combination of anthropogenic carbon uptake from the atmosphere and thermodynamic, air-sea gas exchange processes in different water mass source areas account for the isotopic depletion. Here we evaluate the efficacy of using a concurrent nutrient-δ13C strategy to separate these two effects, with the goal of improving estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake over the course of the Industrial Revolution. In depth profiles from the sea surface to 2500 m at four stations across the California Current (42°N), nitrate, rather than phosphate, is best correlated to δ13CDIC providing the best choice for this experiment. On the basis of an assumption of no anthropogenic carbon in North Pacific Deep Waters between 1000-2500 m depth (potential densities, σθ ˜ 27.3-27.7), the "anthropogenic— preanthropogenic" carbon isotope shift (Δδ13Ca-p) in near-surface waters of the northeast Pacific is inferred to be -0.62 ± 0.17‰, while the thermodynamic air-sea gas exchange signature is estimated at -0.48 ± 0.17‰. Values of Δδ13Ca-p (similar to the regional patterns of Δ14C and Tritium penetration) approach zero for σθ > 26.8, indicating little penetration of anthropogenic carbon into the North Pacific Intermediate Water or the upper North Pacific Deep Water. Our results suggest an upper North Pacific sink of anthropogenic carbon over the past ˜200 years that is ˜40% greater than that estimated for the interval between ˜1970 and ˜1990 by Quay et al., [1992]. Our estimate of the North Pacific inventory of anthropogenic carbon, added to published estimates from the North Atlantic and Indian Ocean, is smaller than model predictions of the total carbon sink, suggesting that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon enters the deep sea via the Southern Ocean.

Estimation of speciated and total mercury dry deposition at monitoring locations in eastern and central North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, L.; Blanchard, P.; Gay, D.A.; Prestbo, E.M.; Risch, M.R.; Johnson, D.; Narayan, J.; Zsolway, R.; Holsen, T.M.; Miller, E.K.; Castro, M.S.; Graydon, J.A.; St. Louis, V.L.; Dalziel, J.

2012-01-01

Dry deposition of speciated mercury, i.e., gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM), particulate-bound mercury (PBM), and gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), was estimated for the year 2008–2009 at 19 monitoring locations in eastern and central North America. Dry deposition estimates were obtained by combining monitored two- to four-hourly speciated ambient concentrations with modeled hourly dry deposition velocities (Vd) calculated using forecasted meteorology. Annual dry deposition of GOM+PBM was estimated to be in the range of 0.4 to 8.1 μg m−2 at these locations with GOM deposition being mostly five to ten times higher than PBM deposition, due to their different modeled Vd values. Net annual GEM dry deposition was estimated to be in the range of 5 to 26 μg m−2 at 18 sites and 33 μg m−2 at one site. The estimated dry deposition agrees very well with limited surrogate-surface dry deposition measurements of GOM and PBM, and also agrees with litterfall mercury measurements conducted at multiple locations in eastern and central North America. This study suggests that GEM contributes much more than GOM+PBM to the total dry deposition at the majority of the sites considered here; the only exception is at locations close to significant point sources where GEM and GOM+PBM contribute equally to the total dry deposition. The relative magnitude of the speciated dry deposition and their good comparisons with litterfall deposition suggest that mercury in litterfall originates primarily from GEM, which is consistent with the limited number of previous field studies. The study also supports previous analyses suggesting that total dry deposition of mercury is equal to, if not more important than, wet deposition of mercury on a regional scale in eastern North America.

Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkhead, Noel M.

2012-01-01

Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). In the twentieth century, freshwater fishes had the highest extinction rate worldwide among vertebrates. The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

Extinction rates in North American freshwater fishes, 1900-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkhead, Noel M.

2012-01-01

Widespread evidence shows that the modern rates of extinction in many plants and animals exceed background rates in the fossil record. In the present article, I investigate this issue with regard to North American freshwater fishes. From 1898 to 2006, 57 taxa became extinct, and three distinct populations were extirpated from the continent. Since 1989, the numbers of extinct North American fishes have increased by 25%. From the end of the nineteenth century to the present, modern extinctions varied by decade but significantly increased after 1950 (post-1950s mean = 7.5 extinct taxa per decade). The modern extinction rate for North American freshwater fishes is conservatively estimated to be 877 times greater than the background extinction rate for freshwater fishes (one extinction every 3 million years). Reasonable estimates project that future increases in extinctions will range from 53 to 86 species by 2050.

Geochemical Evidence for Calcification from the Drake Passage Time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munro, D. R.; Lovenduski, N. S.; Takahashi, T.; Stephens, B. B.; Newberger, T.; Dierssen, H. M.; Randolph, K. L.; Freeman, N. M.; Bushinsky, S. M.; Key, R. M.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Sweeney, C.

2016-12-01

Satellite imagery suggests high particulate inorganic carbon within a circumpolar region north of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF), but in situ evidence for calcification in this region is sparse. Given the geochemical relationship between calcification and total alkalinity (TA), seasonal changes in surface concentrations of potential alkalinity (PA), which accounts for changes in TA due to variability in salinity and nitrate, can be used as a means to evaluate satellite-based calcification algorithms. Here, we use surface carbonate system measurements collected from 2002 to 2016 for the Drake Passage Time-series (DPT) to quantify rates of calcification across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. We also use vertical PA profiles collected during two cruises across the Drake Passage in March 2006 and September 2009 to estimate the calcium carbonate to organic carbon export ratio. We find geochemical evidence for calcification both north and south of the APF with the highest rates observed north of the APF. Calcification estimates from the DPT are compared to satellite-based estimates and estimates based on hydrographic data from other regions around the Southern Ocean.

Procedures for the estimation of regional scale atmospheric emissions—An example from the North West Region of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindley, S. J.; Longhurst, J. W. S.; Watson, A. F. R.; Conlan, D. E.

This paper considers the value of applying an alternative pro rata methodology to the estimation of atmospheric emissions from a given regional or local area. Such investigations into less time and resource intensive means of providing estimates in comparison to traditional methods are important due to the potential role of new methods in the development of air quality management plans. A pro rata approach is used here to estimate emissions of SO 2, NO x, CO, CO 2, VOCs and black smoke from all sources and Pb from transportation for the North West region of England. This method has the advantage of using readily available data as well as being an easily repeatable procedure which provides a good indication of emissions to be expected from a particular geographical region. This can then provide the impetus for further emission studies and ultimately a regional/local air quality management plan. Results suggest that between 1987 and 1991 trends in the emissions of the pollutants considered have been less favourable in the North West region than in the nation as a whole.

An Exploratory Examination of Literacy Assessment Practices of Adult Programs in North Carolina's Piedmont-Triad Region

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrd, Eboni Nikita; Comer, Marcus M.

2007-01-01

It is estimated that 22 percent, of adults in the Piedmont Triad of North Carolina have poor literacy skills, meaning that they have difficulty with tasks involving simple texts and documents. Purpose: Given this low level of adult literacy, the purpose of this exploratory research study was to analyze the perceptions of North Carolina's adult…

Trout Use of Woody Debris and Habitat in Appalachian Wilderness Streams of North Carolina

Treesearch

Patricia A. Flebbe; C. Andrew Dolloff

1995-01-01

Wilderness areas in the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina are set aside to preserve characteristics of both old-growth and second-growth forests and associated streams. Woody debris loadings, trout habitat, and trout were inventoried in three southern Appalachian wilderness streams in North Carolina by the basin-wide visual estimation technique. Two streams in...

A Stationary North-Finding Scheme for an Azimuth Rotational IMU Utilizing a Linear State Equality Constraint

PubMed Central

Yu, Huapeng; Zhu, Hai; Gao, Dayuan; Yu, Meng; Wu, Wenqi

2015-01-01

The Kalman filter (KF) has always been used to improve north-finding performance under practical conditions. By analyzing the characteristics of the azimuth rotational inertial measurement unit (ARIMU) on a stationary base, a linear state equality constraint for the conventional KF used in the fine north-finding filtering phase is derived. Then, a constrained KF using the state equality constraint is proposed and studied in depth. Estimation behaviors of the concerned navigation errors when implementing the conventional KF scheme and the constrained KF scheme during stationary north-finding are investigated analytically by the stochastic observability approach, which can provide explicit formulations of the navigation errors with influencing variables. Finally, multiple practical experimental tests at a fixed position are done on a postulate system to compare the stationary north-finding performance of the two filtering schemes. In conclusion, this study has successfully extended the utilization of the stochastic observability approach for analytic descriptions of estimation behaviors of the concerned navigation errors, and the constrained KF scheme has demonstrated its superiority over the conventional KF scheme for ARIMU stationary north-finding both theoretically and practically. PMID:25688588

Impact of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment on North America Plate Specific Terrestrial Reference Frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herring, Thomas; Melbourne, Tim; Murray, Mark; Floyd, Mike; Szeliga, Walter; King, Robert; Phillips, David; Puskas, Christine

2017-04-01

We examine the impact of incorporating glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models in determining the Euler poles for plate specific terrestrial reference frames. We will specifically examine the impact of GIA models on the realization of a North America Reference frame. We use a combination of the velocity fields determined by the Geodesy Advancing Geosciences and EarthScope (GAGE) Facility which analyzes GPS data from the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) and other geodetic quality GPS sites in North America, and from the ITRF2014 re-analysis. Initial analysis of the GAGE velocity field shows reduced root-mean-square (RMS) scatter of velocity estimate residuals when the North America Euler pole is estimated including the ICE-6G GIA mode. The reduction in the north-south direction is from 0.69 mm/yr to 0.52 mm/yr, in the east-west direction from 0.34 mm/yr to 0.30 mm/yr and in height from 0.93 mm/yr to 0.72 mm/yr. The reduction in the height RMS is not surprising since the contemporary geodetic height velocity estimates are used in the developing the ICE-6G model. Contemporary horizontal motions are not used the GIA model development, and the reduction in horizontal RMS provides a partial validation of the model. There is no reduction in the horizontal velocity residual when the ICE-5G model is used. Although removing the ICE-6G model before fitting an Euler pole for the North American plate reduces the RMS of the residuals, the pattern of residuals is still systematic suggesting possibly that a spherically symmetric viscosity model might not be adequate for accurate modeling of the horizontal motions associated with GIA in North America. This presentation in focus on the prospects and impacts of incorporating GIA models in plate-specific Euler poles with emphasis on North America.

Modern Empirical Statistical Spectral Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-01

716-723. Akaike, H. (1977). On entropy maximization principle, Applications of Statistics, P.R. Krishnaiah , ed., North-Holland, Amsterdam, 27-41...by P. Krishnaiah , North Holland: Amsterdam, 283-295. Parzen, E. (1979). Forecasting and whitening filter estimation, TIMS Studies in the Management

Joint inversion of high resolution S-wave velocity structure underneath North China Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Li, G.; Niu, F.

2017-12-01

North China basin is one of earthquake prone areas in China. Many devastating earthquakes occurred in the last century and before, such as the 1937 M7.0 Heze Earthquake in Shandong province, the 1966 M7.2 Xingtai Earthquake and 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in Hebei province. Knowing the structure of the sediment cover is of great importance to predict strong ground motion caused by earthquakes. Unconsolidated sediments are loose materials, ranging from clay to sand to gravel. Earthquakes can liquefy unconsolidated sediments, thus knowing the distribution and thickness of the unconsolidated sediments has significant implication in seismic hazard analysis of the area. Quantitative estimates of the amount of extension of the North China basin is important to understand the thinning and evolution of the eastern North China craton and the underlying mechanism. In principle, the amount of lithospheric stretching can be estimated from sediment and crustal thickness. Therefore an accurate estimate of the sediment and crustal thickness of the area is also important in understanding regional tectonics. In this study, we jointly invert the Rayleigh wave phase-velocity dispersion and Z/H ratio data to construct a 3-D S-wave velocity model beneath North China area. We use 4-year ambient noise data recorded from 249 temporary stations, and 139 earthquake events to extract Rayleigh wave Z/H ratios. The Z/H ratios obtained from ambient noise data and earthquake data show a good agreement within the overlapped periods. The phase velocity dispersion curve was estimated from the same ambient noise data. The preliminary result shows a relatively low Z/H ratio and low velocity anomaly at the shallow part of sediment basins.

North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Andres, R. J.; Davis, K. J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D. J.; Huntzinger, D. N.; de Jong, B.; Kurz, W. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Vargas, R.; Wei, Y.; West, T. O.; Woodall, C. W.

2015-01-01

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land-atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990-2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr-1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr-1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr-1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr-1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr-1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

DOE PAGES

King, Anthony W.; Andres, Robert; Davis, Kenneth J.; ...

2015-01-21

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate thatmore » the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr -1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, \\"best\\" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr -1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr -1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr -1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr -1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.« less

North America's net terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, A.W.; Andres, R.J.; Davis, K.J.; Hafer, M.; Hayes, D.J.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; de Jong, Bernardus; Kurz, W.A.; McGuire, A. David; Vargas, Rodrigo I.; Wei, Y.; West, Tristram O.; Woodall, Christopher W.

2015-01-01

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate that the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from −890 to −280 Tg C yr−1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, "best" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are −472 ± 281 Tg C yr−1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and −360 Tg C yr−1 (with an interquartile range of −496 to −337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr−1 and assuming the estimate of −472 Tg C yr−1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.

North America's net terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere 1990–2009

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Anthony W.; Andres, Robert; Davis, Kenneth J.

Scientific understanding of the global carbon cycle is required for developing national and international policy to mitigate fossil fuel CO 2 emissions by managing terrestrial carbon uptake. Toward that understanding and as a contribution to the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project, this paper provides a synthesis of net land–atmosphere CO 2 exchange for North America (Canada, United States, and Mexico) over the period 1990–2009. Only CO 2 is considered, not methane or other greenhouse gases. This synthesis is based on results from three different methods: atmospheric inversion, inventory-based methods and terrestrial biosphere modeling. All methods indicate thatmore » the North American land surface was a sink for atmospheric CO 2, with a net transfer from atmosphere to land. Estimates ranged from -890 to -280 Tg C yr -1, where the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates forms the lower bound of that range (a larger land sink) and the inventory-based estimate using the production approach the upper (a smaller land sink). This relatively large range is due in part to differences in how the approaches represent trade, fire and other disturbances and which ecosystems they include. Integrating across estimates, \\"best\\" estimates (i.e., measures of central tendency) are -472 ± 281 Tg C yr -1 based on the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and -360 Tg C yr -1 (with an interquartile range of -496 to -337) based on the median. Considering both the fossil fuel emissions source and the land sink, our analysis shows that North America was, however, a net contributor to the growth of CO 2 in the atmosphere in the late 20th and early 21st century. With North America's mean annual fossil fuel CO 2 emissions for the period 1990–2009 equal to 1720 Tg C yr -1 and assuming the estimate of -472 Tg C yr -1 as an approximation of the true terrestrial CO 2 sink, the continent's source : sink ratio for this time period was 1720:472, or nearly 4:1.« less

Invasive plants found in North Carolina’s forests, 2010—forest inventory and analysis factsheet

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Sonja N. Oswalt

2014-01-01

This publication provides an overview of invasive plants found in forests of the State of North Carolina based on an annual inventory conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program at the Southern Research Station (SRS) of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture in cooperation with the North Carolina Forest Service. These estimates and coverage...

ASW Fusion on a PC

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

14 C. AOU GENERATION ....................................................................................15 D ...25 C. ESTIMATING INITIAL TARGET LOCATION ......................................27 D . ESTIMATING AN AOU...the East-West Direction Estimated Mean Velocity in the North-South D E Xµ = = E-W Vel N-S Velirection lon lat µ µ µ µ

IDF Diabetes Atlas estimates of 2014 global health expenditures on diabetes.

PubMed

da Rocha Fernandes, Joao; Ogurtsova, Katherine; Linnenkamp, Ute; Guariguata, Leonor; Seuring, Till; Zhang, Ping; Cavan, David; Makaroff, Lydia E

2016-07-01

To estimate health expenditures due to diabetes in 2014 for the world and its regions. Diabetes-attributable health expenditures were estimated using an attributable fraction method. Data were sourced from International Diabetes Federation (IDF) estimates of diabetes prevalence, UN population projections, WHO annual health expenditure reports, and estimates of the cost ratio of people with and without diabetes. Health expenditures were calculated in both US dollars (USD) and international dollars (ID). The average health expenditure per person with diabetes worldwide in 2014 was estimated to range from USD 1583 (ID 1742) to USD 2842 (ID 3110). The estimated annual global health expenditure attributable to diabetes ranged from USD 612 billion (ID 673 billion) to USD 1099 billion (ID 1202 billion). Together, the North America and Caribbean Region and the Europe Region were responsible for over 69% of the costs, and less than 10% of the costs were from the Africa Region, South East Asia Region, and Middle East and North Africa Region combined. The North America and Caribbean Region had the highest annual spending per person with diabetes (USD 7984 [ID 8040.39]), while the South East Asia Region had the lowest annual spending per person with diabetes (USD 92 [ID 234]). Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on health care systems across the world, yet varies across world regions. Diabetes prevention and effective management of diabetes should be a public health priority to reduce the financial burden. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Acoustic and Optic Methods for Estimating Suspended-Solids Concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patino, Eduardo; Byrne, Michael J.

2004-01-01

Acoustic and optic methods were applied to estimate suspended-solids concentrations in the St. Lucie River Estuary, southeastern Florida. Acoustic Doppler velocity meters were installed at the North Fork, Speedy Point, and Steele Point sites within the estuary. These sites provide varying flow, salinity, water-quality, and channel cross-sectional characteristics. The monitoring site at Steele Point was not used in the analyses because repeated instrument relocations (due to bridge construction) prevented a sufficient number of samples from being collected at the various locations. Acoustic and optic instruments were installed to collect water velocity, acoustic backscatter strength (ABS), and turbidity data that were used to assess the feasibility of estimating suspended-solids concentrations in the estuary. Other data collected at the monitoring sites include tidal stage, salinity, temperature, and periodic discharge measurements. Regression analyses were used to determine the relations of suspended-solids concentration to ABS and suspended-solids concentration to turbidity at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. For samples used in regression analyses, measured suspended-solids concentrations at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites ranged from 3 to 37 milligrams per liter, and organic content ranged from 50 to 83 percent. Corresponding salinity for these samples ranged from 0.12 to 22.7 parts per thousand, and corresponding temperature ranged from 19.4 to 31.8 ?C. Relations determined using this technique are site specific and only describe suspended-solids concentrations at locations where data were collected. The suspended-solids concentration to ABS relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.63 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The suspended-solids concentration to turbidity relation resulted in correlation coefficients of 0.73 and 0.89 at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites, respectively. The adequacy of the empirical equations seems to be limited by the number and distribution of suspended-solids samples collected throughout the expected concentration range at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Additionally, the ABS relations for both sites seem to overestimate at the low end and underestimate at the high end of the concentration range. Based on the sensitivity analysis, temperature had a greater effect than salinity on estimated suspended-solids concentrations. Temperature also appeared to affect ABS data, perhaps by changing the absorptive and reflective characteristics of the suspended material. Salinity and temperature had no observed effects on the turbidity relation at the North Fork and Speedy Point sites. Estimates of suspended-solids concentrations using ABS data were less 'erratic' than estimates using turbidity data. Combining ABS and turbidity data into one equation did not improve the accuracy of results, and therefore, was not considered.

Wave directional spreading from point field measurements.

PubMed

McAllister, M L; Venugopal, V; Borthwick, A G L

2017-04-01

Ocean waves have multidirectional components. Most wave measurements are taken at a single point, and so fail to capture information about the relative directions of the wave components directly. Conventional means of directional estimation require a minimum of three concurrent time series of measurements at different spatial locations in order to derive information on local directional wave spreading. Here, the relationship between wave nonlinearity and directionality is utilized to estimate local spreading without the need for multiple concurrent measurements, following Adcock & Taylor (Adcock & Taylor 2009 Proc. R. Soc. A 465 , 3361-3381. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0031)), with the assumption that directional spreading is frequency independent. The method is applied to measurements recorded at the North Alwyn platform in the northern North Sea, and the results compared against estimates of wave spreading by conventional measurement methods and hindcast data. Records containing freak waves were excluded. It is found that the method provides accurate estimates of wave spreading over a range of conditions experienced at North Alwyn, despite the noisy chaotic signals that characterize such ocean wave data. The results provide further confirmation that Adcock and Taylor's method is applicable to metocean data and has considerable future promise as a technique to recover estimates of wave spreading from single point wave measurement devices.

Wave directional spreading from point field measurements

PubMed Central

Venugopal, V.; Borthwick, A. G. L.

2017-01-01

Ocean waves have multidirectional components. Most wave measurements are taken at a single point, and so fail to capture information about the relative directions of the wave components directly. Conventional means of directional estimation require a minimum of three concurrent time series of measurements at different spatial locations in order to derive information on local directional wave spreading. Here, the relationship between wave nonlinearity and directionality is utilized to estimate local spreading without the need for multiple concurrent measurements, following Adcock & Taylor (Adcock & Taylor 2009 Proc. R. Soc. A 465, 3361–3381. (doi:10.1098/rspa.2009.0031)), with the assumption that directional spreading is frequency independent. The method is applied to measurements recorded at the North Alwyn platform in the northern North Sea, and the results compared against estimates of wave spreading by conventional measurement methods and hindcast data. Records containing freak waves were excluded. It is found that the method provides accurate estimates of wave spreading over a range of conditions experienced at North Alwyn, despite the noisy chaotic signals that characterize such ocean wave data. The results provide further confirmation that Adcock and Taylor's method is applicable to metocean data and has considerable future promise as a technique to recover estimates of wave spreading from single point wave measurement devices. PMID:28484326

Low Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Prevalent among North Korean Refugees in South Korea

PubMed Central

Song, Young-Soo

2018-01-01

Background The number of North Korean refugees entering South Korea is rising. Few studies have investigated the risk of non-communicable disease in North Korean refugees. Moreover, kidney insufficiency, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, has not been studied in this population. We compared the prevalence of non-communicable disease and kidney function in North Korean refugees and South Koreans. Methods Our study was conducted using a case-control design. We enrolled 118 North Korean refugees from the Hana Center and selected 472 randomly sampled South Korean individuals as controls, who were age- and sex-matched with the North Korean refugees in a ratio of 1:4, from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. Results The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ significantly between the groups; however, a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; <90 mL/min per 1.73 m2) was more prevalent in the North Korean refugees than in the South Korean population (52.1% vs. 29.9%, P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates and weight gain after escape, the prevalence of a low eGFR was associated with the length of residence in South Korea (odds ratio, 2.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.02–7.89). Conclusion The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ between North Korean refugees and the South Korean population, while a low eGFR was more prevalent in North Korean refugees than in South Koreans. Moreover, after adjusting for other covariates, the prevalence of a low eGFR in North Korean refugees was associated with the length of residence in South Korea. PMID:29788704

Low Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Is Prevalent among North Korean Refugees in South Korea.

PubMed

Song, Young-Soo; Choi, Seong-Woo

2018-05-01

The number of North Korean refugees entering South Korea is rising. Few studies have investigated the risk of non-communicable disease in North Korean refugees. Moreover, kidney insufficiency, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, has not been studied in this population. We compared the prevalence of non-communicable disease and kidney function in North Korean refugees and South Koreans. Our study was conducted using a case-control design. We enrolled 118 North Korean refugees from the Hana Center and selected 472 randomly sampled South Korean individuals as controls, who were age- and sex-matched with the North Korean refugees in a ratio of 1:4, from the 2014 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database. The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ significantly between the groups; however, a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; <90 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ) was more prevalent in the North Korean refugees than in the South Korean population (52.1% vs. 29.9%, P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates and weight gain after escape, the prevalence of a low eGFR was associated with the length of residence in South Korea (odds ratio, 2.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-7.89). The prevalence of non-communicable disease did not differ between North Korean refugees and the South Korean population, while a low eGFR was more prevalent in North Korean refugees than in South Koreans. Moreover, after adjusting for other covariates, the prevalence of a low eGFR in North Korean refugees was associated with the length of residence in South Korea.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Carbon Isotopic Signal of Leaf Wax Aerosols in Continental Air Masses: Linkages with Ecosystem Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, J.; Conte, M. H.

2006-12-01

Temporal and spatial variations in the concentration and isotopic composition of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be used to estimate the relative magnitudes of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. An important model parameter is the terrestrial photosynthetic carbon isotopic fractionation of CO2 (Δ), yet estimating Δ over the large spatial scales required by models remains problematic. Epiculticular leaf waxes appear to closely reflect the plant's carbon isotopic discrimination; therefore, the ablated wax aerosols present in well-mixed continental air masses may be used as a proxy to estimate the magnitude of Δ integrated over large (subcontinental) spatial scales. Over the last several years, we have been conducting time-series studies of wax aerosol molecular and isotopic composition at strategically located sites (Maine, northern Alaska, Florida, Bermuda, Barbados) which receive continental air masses passing over major terrestrial biomes (northern temperate/ecotonal boreal forests, tundra, southern US pine/hardwood forests, North American and north African). In this presentation, we describe and contrast patterns of wax aerosol-derived estimates of Δ at these sites. In North American air masses, estimates of Δ range from 14.5-20.5 using the concentration-weighted average δ13C of wax n-acids and from 13.5-19.5 for the wax n-alcohols. Seasonal trends observed in the Florida (southern US) and Bermuda samples (mixed North American air masses) indicate maximum discrimination in early spring and minimum discrimination during the summer dry season. In northern US and high latitude air masses, seasonal trends are less pronounced but in general temporally offset with highest discrimination occurring during late summer. At Barbados, which is dominated by north African air masses passing over regions largely comprised of arid C4 grasslands, estimated Δ for the wax n-acids is significantly lower (14.0-15.5 per mil), consistent with a higher predominance of C4 plants in the aerosol source regions; however, the estimated Δ for the wax n-alcohols is roughly 2 per mil higher indicative of possible different weighting of vegetation sources. Interannual variability is also observed to some extent signifying that the wax aerosol signal of Δ is sensitive to year-to-year differences in environmental forcing (e.g. drought).

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the North-Central Montana Province, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Christopher J.; Mercier, Tracey J.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Woodall, Cheryl A.; Le, Phuong A.; Klett, Timothy R.; Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Finn, Thomas M.; Pitman, Janet K.; Marra, Kristen R.; Leathers-Miller, Heidi M.

2018-02-12

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of 55 million barrels of oil and 846 billion cubic feet of gas in the North-Central Montana Province.

Path-corrected Body-wave Magnitudes and Yield Estimates of Semipalatinsk Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-04-04

OFFICE 3701 NORTH FAIRFAX DRIVE ARLINGTON, VA 22203-1714 . ..... - The views and conclusions contained in this report are those of the authors and should...MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER DARPA/NMRO (Attn. Dr. Alan Ryall) 3701 North Fairfax Drive...Report UCRL -Trans-10517, 79-109. North, R. G. (1977). Station magnitude bias --- its determination, causes, and effects, Lincoln Laboratory, Technical

Satellite versus ground-based estimates of burned area: A comparison between MODIS based burned area and fire agency reports over North America in 2007

Treesearch

Stephane Mangeon; Robert Field; Michael Fromm; Charles McHugh; Apostolos Voulgarakis

2015-01-01

North American wildfire management teams routinely assess burned area on site during firefighting campaigns; meanwhile, satellite observations provide systematic and global burned-area data. Here we compare satellite and ground-based daily burned area for wildfire events for selected large fires across North America in 2007 on daily timescales. In a sample of 26 fires...

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Superfund Record of Decision (EPA region 8): North Dakota Arsenic Trioxide in Southeastern North Dakota, September 1986. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1986-09-26

The North Dakota Arsenic Trioxide site consists of twenty townships in Richland, Ransom, and Sargent counties in southeastern North Dakota. Ground water use includes residential consumption, irrigation, and livestock watering. The contamination, limited to ground water, appears to have two sources; naturally occurring arsenic contained in shales native to the area; and an estimated 330,000 pounds of arsenic-laced bait used to control grasshopper infestations in the 1930s and 1940s. The primary contaminant of concern is arsenic trioxide.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker.

PubMed

Peters, Wouter; Jacobson, Andrew R; Sweeney, Colm; Andrews, Arlyn E; Conway, Thomas J; Masarie, Kenneth; Miller, John B; Bruhwiler, Lori M P; Pétron, Gabrielle; Hirsch, Adam I; Worthy, Douglas E J; van der Werf, Guido R; Randerson, James T; Wennberg, Paul O; Krol, Maarten C; Tans, Pieter P

2007-11-27

We present an estimate of net CO(2) exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere across North America for every week in the period 2000 through 2005. This estimate is derived from a set of 28,000 CO(2) mole fraction observations in the global atmosphere that are fed into a state-of-the-art data assimilation system for CO(2) called CarbonTracker. By design, the surface fluxes produced in CarbonTracker are consistent with the recent history of CO(2) in the atmosphere and provide constraints on the net carbon flux independent from national inventories derived from accounting efforts. We find the North American terrestrial biosphere to have absorbed -0.65 PgC/yr (1 petagram = 10(15) g; negative signs are used for carbon sinks) averaged over the period studied, partly offsetting the estimated 1.85 PgC/yr release by fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing. Uncertainty on this estimate is derived from a set of sensitivity experiments and places the sink within a range of -0.4 to -1.0 PgC/yr. The estimated sink is located mainly in the deciduous forests along the East Coast (32%) and the boreal coniferous forests (22%). Terrestrial uptake fell to -0.32 PgC/yr during the large-scale drought of 2002, suggesting sensitivity of the contemporary carbon sinks to climate extremes. CarbonTracker results are in excellent agreement with a wide collection of carbon inventories that form the basis of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), to be released in 2007. All CarbonTracker results are freely available at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov.

An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker

PubMed Central

Peters, Wouter; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Sweeney, Colm; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Conway, Thomas J.; Masarie, Kenneth; Miller, John B.; Bruhwiler, Lori M. P.; Pétron, Gabrielle; Hirsch, Adam I.; Worthy, Douglas E. J.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Randerson, James T.; Wennberg, Paul O.; Krol, Maarten C.; Tans, Pieter P.

2007-01-01

We present an estimate of net CO2 exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere across North America for every week in the period 2000 through 2005. This estimate is derived from a set of 28,000 CO2 mole fraction observations in the global atmosphere that are fed into a state-of-the-art data assimilation system for CO2 called CarbonTracker. By design, the surface fluxes produced in CarbonTracker are consistent with the recent history of CO2 in the atmosphere and provide constraints on the net carbon flux independent from national inventories derived from accounting efforts. We find the North American terrestrial biosphere to have absorbed −0.65 PgC/yr (1 petagram = 1015 g; negative signs are used for carbon sinks) averaged over the period studied, partly offsetting the estimated 1.85 PgC/yr release by fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing. Uncertainty on this estimate is derived from a set of sensitivity experiments and places the sink within a range of −0.4 to −1.0 PgC/yr. The estimated sink is located mainly in the deciduous forests along the East Coast (32%) and the boreal coniferous forests (22%). Terrestrial uptake fell to −0.32 PgC/yr during the large-scale drought of 2002, suggesting sensitivity of the contemporary carbon sinks to climate extremes. CarbonTracker results are in excellent agreement with a wide collection of carbon inventories that form the basis of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), to be released in 2007. All CarbonTracker results are freely available at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov. PMID:18045791

Assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of North Africa, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schenk, Christopher J.; Klett, Timothy R.; Whidden, Katherine J.; Kirschbaum, Mark A.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Pitman, Janet K.

2013-01-01

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated means of 19 billion barrels of technically recoverable undiscovered conventional oil and 370 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered conventional natural gas resources in 8 geologic provinces of North Africa.

Erosion of the Laurentide region of North America by glacial and glaciofluvial processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, M.; Laine, E.P.

1985-01-01

Collection of seismic reflection data from continental margins and ocean basins surrounding North America makes it possible to estimate the amount of material eroded from the area formerly covered by Laurentide ice sheets since major glaciation began in North America. A minimum estimate is made of 1.62 ?? 106 km3, or an average 120 m of rock physically eroded from the Laurentide region. This figure is an order of magnitude higher than earlier estimates based on the volume of glacial drift, Cenozoic marine sediments, and modern sediment loads of rivers. Most of the sediment produced during Laurentide glaciation has already been transported to the oceans. The importance of continental glaciation as a geomorphic agency in North America may have to be reevaluated. Evidence from sedimentation rates in ocean basins surrounding Greenland and Antarctica suggests that sediment production, sediment transport, and possibly denudation by permanent ice caps may be substantially lower than by periodic ice caps, such as the Laurentide. Low rates of sediment survival from the time of the Permo-Carboniferous and Precambrian glaciations suggest that predominance of marine deposition during some glacial epochs results in shorter lived sediment because of preferential tectonism and cycling of oceanic crust versus continental crust. ?? 1985.

Spatial Variation of Surface Wave Q and Body Wave t* in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Y.; Ritsema, J.

2007-12-01

We estimate the spatial variation of the seismic parameter t* using teleseismic (30°--90°) P wave recordings of about 300 deep (> 200 km) earthquakes at broadband stations in North America. We determine the P wave spectral ratio Rij for about 600,000 station pairs i-j with high signal-to-noise ratio P wave signals. The linear fit to lnRij between f= 0.1--1.0 Hz is measured to estimate differential Δt* assuming that lnRij is proportional to π fΔt* (e.g., Aki and Richards, 1980). The measurements are inverted for t* at each station by least-squares inversion. Preliminary inversions indicate that the variation of t* correlate with the tectonic terrains of North America. Predominantly low values of t* are obtained for stations in the Canadian Shield and high t* values in the North American Cordillera. This variation is similar to Q variations inferred from global surface wave amplitude data (e.g., Dalton and Ekström, 2006), suggesting that intrinsic attenuation is the common cause. We will discuss the robustness of our t* estimates (including the effects of scattering on P wave ratios) and make a detailed comparison with surface wave Q maps.

Hankin and Reeves' approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams: limitations and alternatives

Treesearch

William L. Thompson

2003-01-01

Hankin and Reeves' (1988) approach to estimating fish abundance in small streams has been applied in stream fish studies across North America. However, their population estimator relies on two key assumptions: (1) removal estimates are equal to the true numbers of fish, and (2) removal estimates are highly correlated with snorkel counts within a subset of sampled...

US North Slope gas and Asian LNG markets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.

1994-01-01

Prospects for export of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Alaska's North Slope are assessed. Projected market conditions to 2010 show that new LNG capacity beyond announced expansions will be needed to meet regional demand and that supplies will probably come from outside the region. The estimated delivered costs of likely suppliers show that Alaska North Slope gas will not be competitive. The alternative North Slope gas development strategies of transport and sale to the lower 48 states and use on the North Slope for either enhanced oil recovery or conversion to liquids are examined. The alternative options require delaying development until US gas prices increase, exhaustion of certain North Slope oil fields, or advances occur in gas to liquid fuels conversion technology. ?? 1995.

Regional analysis of population trajectories from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

1999-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) was started in 1966, and provides information on population change and distribution for most of the birds in North America. The geographic extent of the survey, and the logistical compromises needed to survey such a large area, present many challenges for estimation from BBS data. In this paper, we describe the survey and discuss some of the limitations of the survey design and implementation. Analysis of the survey has evolved over time as new statistical methods and insights into the analysis of count data are developed. Survey results and analysis tools for the BBS are now available over intemet; we present new methods that use generalized linear models for estimation of population change and empirical Bayes procedures for regional summaries.

Genomic Ancestry of North Africans Supports Back-to-Africa Migrations

PubMed Central

Gravel, Simon; Wang, Wei; Brisbin, Abra; Byrnes, Jake K.; Fadhlaoui-Zid, Karima; Zalloua, Pierre A.; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Bertranpetit, Jaume; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Comas, David

2012-01-01

North African populations are distinct from sub-Saharan Africans based on cultural, linguistic, and phenotypic attributes; however, the time and the extent of genetic divergence between populations north and south of the Sahara remain poorly understood. Here, we interrogate the multilayered history of North Africa by characterizing the effect of hypothesized migrations from the Near East, Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa on current genetic diversity. We present dense, genome-wide SNP genotyping array data (730,000 sites) from seven North African populations, spanning from Egypt to Morocco, and one Spanish population. We identify a gradient of likely autochthonous Maghrebi ancestry that increases from east to west across northern Africa; this ancestry is likely derived from “back-to-Africa” gene flow more than 12,000 years ago (ya), prior to the Holocene. The indigenous North African ancestry is more frequent in populations with historical Berber ethnicity. In most North African populations we also see substantial shared ancestry with the Near East, and to a lesser extent sub-Saharan Africa and Europe. To estimate the time of migration from sub-Saharan populations into North Africa, we implement a maximum likelihood dating method based on the distribution of migrant tracts. In order to first identify migrant tracts, we assign local ancestry to haplotypes using a novel, principal component-based analysis of three ancestral populations. We estimate that a migration of western African origin into Morocco began about 40 generations ago (approximately 1,200 ya); a migration of individuals with Nilotic ancestry into Egypt occurred about 25 generations ago (approximately 750 ya). Our genomic data reveal an extraordinarily complex history of migrations, involving at least five ancestral populations, into North Africa. PMID:22253600

Enumeration of prairie wetlands with Landsat and aircraft data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilmer, D. S.; Work, E. A., Jr.; Colwell, J. E.; Rebel, D. L.

1980-01-01

A method is described for estimating wetland abundance in the 700,000 sq km prairie pothole region of North America. A double sampling procedure is described, incorporating the use of high resolution aircraft imagery, capable of delineating ponds as small as 5 m across, as a means of adjusting the count of surface water features derived from the low-resolution Landsat census over a 38,876 sq km area in east-central North Dakota. The regression expansion formula used to estimate the actual number of total wetlands is also presented.

Recent Methodological Developments in Magnitude Determination and Yield Estimation with Applications to Semipalatinsk Explosions

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-07-16

UCRL -51414-REV1, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California, CA. - 47 - North, R. G. (1977). Station magnitude bias --- its determination...1976 at and near the nuclear testing ground in eastern Kazakhstan, UCRL -52856, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California, CA. Ryall, A...VA 24061 Dr. Ralph Alewine, I Dr. Stephen Bratt DARPA/NMRO Center for Seismic Studies 3701 North Fairfax Drive 1300 North 17th Street Arlington, VA

Nutrients, suspended sediment, and pesticides in streams in the Red River of the North basin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 1993-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tornes, L.H.; Brigham, M.E.; Lorenz, D.L.

1997-01-01

The most heavily used herbicides, 2,4-D and MCPA, were infrequently detected in stream-water samples. Of the estimated applications of atrazine, triallate, and 2,4-D, about 0.9, 0.06, and 0.02 percent of each of these compounds, respectively, was carried out of the study unit by the Red River of the North during 1993-95.

North Dakota's forests 2005

Treesearch

David E. Haugen; Michael Kangas; Susan J. Crocker; Charles H. Perry; Christopher W. Woodall; Brett J. Butler; Barry T. Wilson; Dan J. Kaisershot

2009-01-01

The first completed annual inventory of North Dakota's forests reports estimates of more than 724,000 acres of forest land. Information about forest attributes and forest health is presented along with information on agents of change including changing land use patterns and the introduction of nonnative plants, insects, and disease.

Early Yields of Biomass Plantations in the North-Central U.S.

Treesearch

Edward Hansen

1990-01-01

A network of hybrid poplar short-rotation plantations was established across the north-central region of the U.S. during 1986-1988. This paper documents the greater than expected early yields from these plantations and dicusses potential yields and uncertainties surrounding potential yield estimates.

Sufficient protein quality of food aid varies with the physiologic status of recipients

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Protein quality scores use the amino acid (AA) requirements of a healthy North American child. AA requirements vary with physiologic status. We estimated AA requirements for healthy North American children, children with environmental enteric dysfunction, children recovering from wasting, and childr...

Estimation of carbon flux to dovekies ( Alle alle) in the North Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnovsky, Nina J.; Hunt, George L.

We modeled the energy demand of seabirds in the North Water, focusing on the planktivorous dovekie ( Alle alle), the dominant species in the polynya. For the dovekie we provided an estimate of carbon flux that included aspects of spatial and temporal variability. We estimated the density, diet, and carbon consumption of dovekies throughout the polynya, from the time of their arrival in mid-May until they began to migrate south in September. Our model showed that this species is responsible for 92-96% of the energy demand and therefore carbon flux to seabirds. Dovekies consumed 73.7-147×10 3 mt C yr -1 in the North Water. Average flux rates to dovekies in the polynya were 0.74 g C m -2 yr -1, with a maximum estimated rate of 24 mg C m -2 d -1 in the eastern portion of the study area in May. However, when averaged over the entire polynya and period of occupancy, the proportion of pelagic primary production that went to dovekies was negligible (0.3-0.6%). Our observations of dovekie distribution, indicate that the major flux of carbon to seabirds occurred close inshore along the Greenland coast. There in May, carbon flux to dovekies was estimated to be 5-14% of the potential particulate export of phytoplankton. Our estimates of the spatial distribution of carbon flux to birds suggest the extraordinary importance of production along the west coast of Greenland.

Comparison between deterministic and statistical wavelet estimation methods through predictive deconvolution: Seismic to well tie example from the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Macedo, Isadora A. S.; da Silva, Carolina B.; de Figueiredo, J. J. S.; Omoboya, Bode

2017-01-01

Wavelet estimation as well as seismic-to-well tie procedures are at the core of every seismic interpretation workflow. In this paper we perform a comparative study of wavelet estimation methods for seismic-to-well tie. Two approaches to wavelet estimation are discussed: a deterministic estimation, based on both seismic and well log data, and a statistical estimation, based on predictive deconvolution and the classical assumptions of the convolutional model, which provides a minimum-phase wavelet. Our algorithms, for both wavelet estimation methods introduce a semi-automatic approach to determine the optimum parameters of deterministic wavelet estimation and statistical wavelet estimation and, further, to estimate the optimum seismic wavelets by searching for the highest correlation coefficient between the recorded trace and the synthetic trace, when the time-depth relationship is accurate. Tests with numerical data show some qualitative conclusions, which are probably useful for seismic inversion and interpretation of field data, by comparing deterministic wavelet estimation and statistical wavelet estimation in detail, especially for field data example. The feasibility of this approach is verified on real seismic and well data from Viking Graben field, North Sea, Norway. Our results also show the influence of the washout zones on well log data on the quality of the well to seismic tie.

78 FR 28758 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; North and South Atlantic 2013 Commercial Swordfish Quotas

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... February 28, 2013, and does not include an estimate of dead discards. The dead discard estimate is... until the summer of each year. However, we do not expect the final dead discard estimate to be large enough to change the total underharvest carryover. For the dead discard estimate to change the...

Stature estimation from the lengths of the growing foot-a study on North Indian adolescents.

PubMed

Krishan, Kewal; Kanchan, Tanuj; Passi, Neelam; DiMaggio, John A

2012-12-01

Stature estimation is considered as one of the basic parameters of the investigation process in unknown and commingled human remains in medico-legal case work. Race, age and sex are the other parameters which help in this process. Stature estimation is of the utmost importance as it completes the biological profile of a person along with the other three parameters of identification. The present research is intended to formulate standards for stature estimation from foot dimensions in adolescent males from North India and study the pattern of foot growth during the growing years. 154 male adolescents from the Northern part of India were included in the study. Besides stature, five anthropometric measurements that included the length of the foot from each toe (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5 respectively) to pternion were measured on each foot. The data was analyzed statistically using Student's t-test, Pearson's correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis for estimation of stature and growth of foot during ages 13-18 years. Correlation coefficients between stature and all the foot measurements were found to be highly significant and positively correlated. Linear regression models and multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) were derived for estimation of stature from the different measurements of the foot. Multiple regression models (with age as a co-variable) estimate stature with greater accuracy than the regression models for 13-18 years age group. The study shows the growth pattern of feet in North Indian adolescents and indicates that anthropometric measurements of the foot and its segments are valuable in estimation of stature in growing individuals of that population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Snow Water Storage in North America Using CLM4, DART, and Snow Radiance Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwon, Yonghwan; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhao, Long; Hoar, Timothy J.; Toure, Ally M.; Rodell, Matthew

2016-01-01

This paper addresses continental-scale snow estimates in North America using a recently developed snow radiance assimilation (RA) system. A series of RA experiments with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are conducted by assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperature T(sub B) at 18.7- and 36.5-GHz vertical polarization channels. The overall RA performance in estimating snow depth for North America is improved by simultaneously updating the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), snow/soil states and radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters involved in predicting T(sub B) based on their correlations with the prior T(sub B) (i.e., rule-based RA), although degradations are also observed. The RA system exhibits a more mixed performance for snow cover fraction estimates. Compared to the open-loop run (0.171m RMSE), the overall snow depth estimates are improved by 1.6% (0.168m RMSE) in the rule-based RA whereas the default RA (without a rule) results in a degradation of 3.6% (0.177mRMSE). Significant improvement of the snow depth estimates in the rule-based RA as observed for tundra snow class (11.5%, p < 0.05) and bare soil land-cover type (13.5%, p < 0.05). However, the overall improvement is not significant (p = 0.135) because snow estimates are degraded or marginally improved for other snow classes and land covers, especially the taiga snow class and forest land cover (7.1% and 7.3% degradations, respectively). The current RA system needs to be further refined to enhance snow estimates for various snow types and forested regions.

Estimation of sediment inflows to Lake Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 2009-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, K.G.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Tuscaloosa, evaluated the concentrations, loads, and yields of suspended sediment in the tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa in west-central Alabama, from October 1, 2008, to January 31, 2012. The collection and analysis of these data will facilitate the comparison with historical data, serve as a baseline for future sediment-collection efforts, and help to identify areas of concern. Lake Tuscaloosa, at the reservoir dam, receives runoff from a drainage area of 423 square miles (mi2). Basinwide in 2006, forested land was the primary land cover (68 percent). Comparison of historical imagery with the National Land Cover Database (2001 and 2006) indicated that the greatest temporal land-use change was timber harvest. The land cover in 2006 was indicative of this change, with shrub/scrub land (12 percent) being the secondary land use in the basin. Agricultural land use (10 percent) was represented predominantly by hay and pasture or grasslands. Urban land use was minimal, accounting for 4 percent of the entire basin. The remaining 6 percent of the basin has a land use of open water or wetlands. Storm and monthly suspended-sediment samples were collected from seven tributaries to Lake Tuscaloosa: North River, Turkey Creek, Binion Creek, Pole Bridge Creek, Tierce Creek, Carroll Creek, and Brush Creek. Suspended-sediment concentrations and streamflow measurements were statistically analyzed to estimate annual suspended-sediment loads and yields from each of these contributing watersheds. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2009 were 360, 540, and 840 tons per square mile (tons/mi2) at the North River, Turkey Creek, and Carroll Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2010 were 120 and 86 tons/mi2 at the Binion Creek and Pole Bridge Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. Estimated annual suspended-sediment yields in 2011 were 190 and 300 tons/mi2 at the Tierce Creek and Brush Creek streamflow-gaging stations, respectively. The North River watershed at the streamflow-gaging station contributes 53 percent of the drainage area for Lake Tuscaloosa. A previous study in the 1970s analyzed streamflow and historical suspended-sediment samples to estimate a long-term average suspended-sediment yield of 300 tons per year per square mile in the North River watershed. Analysis of data collected in the North River watershed during the 2009 water year (October 2008 to September 2009) estimated a sediment yield of 360 tons/mi2. The North River watershed, a major portion of the Lake Tuscaloosa drainage basin, has not experienced a substantial increase in sedimentation rates. During the 2009 water year, the Turkey Creek watershed (6.16 mi2) and the Carroll Creek watershed (20.9 mi2) produced greater suspended-sediment yields than the North River watershed but contribute a much smaller drainage area to Lake Tuscaloosa. Aerial photography and bathymetric surveys indicate that Carroll Creek has experienced increased sediment deposition in the upstream portions of the channel. Carroll Creek is also the only watershed in the current study that has a substantial percentage (11 percent) of urban

Reconnaissance investigation of the alluvial gold deposits in the North Takhar Area of Interest, Takhar Province, Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Moran, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

This study is a reconnaissance assessment of the alluvial gold deposits of the North Takhar Area of Interest (AOI) in Takhar Province, Afghanistan. Soviet and Afghan geologists collected data and calculated the gold deposit reserves in Takhar Province in the 1970s, prior to the development of satellite-based remote-sensing platforms and new methods of geomorphic mapping. The purpose of this study was to integrate new mapping techniques with previously collected borehole sampling and concentration sampling data and geomorphologic interpretations to reassess the alluvial gold placer deposits in the North Takhar AOI. Through a combination of historical borehole and cross-section data and digital terrain modeling, the Samti, Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir, and Kocha River placer deposits were reassessed. Resource estimates were calculated to be 20,927 kilograms (kg) for Samti, 7,626 kg for Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir, 160 kg for the mouth of the Kocha, 1,047 kg for the lower Kocha, 113 kg for the middle Kocha, and 168 kg for the upper Kocha. Previous resource estimates conducted by the Soviets for the Samti and Nooraba-Khasar-Anjir deposits estimated 30,062 kg and 802 kg of gold, respectively. This difference between the new estimates and previous estimates results from the higher resolution geomorphic model and the interpretation of areas outside of the initial work zone studied by Soviet and Afghan geologists.

Recent rates of forest harvest and conversion in North America

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Warren B. Cohen; Donald Leckie; Michael A. Wulder; Rodrigo Vargas; Ben de Jong; Sean Healey; Beverly Law; Richard Birdsey; R. A. Houghton; David Mildrexler; Samuel Goward; W. Brad Smith

2011-01-01

Incorporating ecological disturbance into biogeochemical models is critical for estimating current and future carbon stocks and fluxes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances, such as forest conversion and wood harvest, strongly affect forest carbon dynamics within North America. This paper summarizes recent (2000-2008) rates of extraction, including both conversion...

An Assessment of Stressor Extent and Biological Condition in the North American Mid-continent Great Rivers (USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We assessed the North American mid-continent great rivers (Upper Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio). We estimated the extent of each river in most- (MDC) or least-disturbed condition (LDC) based on multiple biological response indicators: fi sh and macroinvertebrate, trophic stat...

Projected Statewide Impact of "Opportunity Culture" School Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holly, Christen; Dean, Stephanie; Hassel, Emily Ayscue; Hassel, Bryan C.

2014-01-01

This brief estimates the impact of a statewide implementation of Opportunity Culture models, using North Carolina as an example. Impacts estimated include student learning outcomes, gross state product, teacher pay, and other career characteristics, and state income tax revenue. Estimates indicate the potential for a statewide transition to…

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Long term behavior of TEPCO FNPP1 derived radiocaesium in the North Pacific Ocean through the end of 2016: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aoyama, Michio; Hamajima, Yasunori; Inomata, Yayoi; Kumamoto, Yuichiro; Oka, Eitarou; Tsubono, Takaki; Tsumune, Daisuke

2017-04-01

1, Two major source terms of radiocaesium to the Ocean There are two major sources of radionuclides to the environment derived by the TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP1) accident in 2011. The largest and earliest source of artificial radionuclide was atmospheric release from three melt down cores of FNPP1, which led to atmospheric deposition on both land and in the ocean. Total amount of atmospheric release of 137Cs was estimated to be 15.2-20.4 PBq ( and same amount of 134Cs) (Aoyama et al., 2016). About 20 % of released radiocaesium fell on land and 80% of released radiocaesium fell on the ocean. Therefore 11.7-14.8 PBq of 137Cs was injected in the North Pacific as atmospheric deposition. Second largest source was the direct discharge of contaminated waters to the ocean since 26 March 2011 and peaked on 6 April 2011 (Tsumune et al., 2012). Total amount of directly released 137Cs was estimated to be 3.5 +- 0.7 PBq. A combined input to the North Pacific was therefore 15.2 - 18.3 PBq. 2, Three major pathways of FNPP1 derived radiocaesium in the North Pacific The fastest pathway of radiocaesium might be surface. FNPP1-derived radiocaesium injected at north of Kuroshio front by atmospheric deposition and direct discharge spread eastward in surface water by the North Pacific Current across the mid-latitude North Pacific (Aoyama et al., 2016). A model simulation by Tsubono et al.(2016) also shows good agreement with the observed radiocaesium activities in the North Pacific. The second pathway is formation of central mode water (CMW). A maximum of radiocaesium activity in June/July 2012 was observed at potential densities of 26.1-26.3 at 34 deg. N-39 deg. N along 165 deg. E, which correspond to 400 meters depth. The density is in a range of density of CMW and radiocaesium activity was higher than those in the surrounding waters, including STMW. In June-July 2015 and June 2016 at 36 deg. N-44 deg.N, 165 deg. E - 170 deg. E, we observe very week signal of FNPP1 radiocaesium, which means that subducted radiocaesium might have moved eastward from this region. The third pathway is formation of subtropical mode water (STMW). FNPP1-derived radiocaesium injected at south of Kuroshio front by atmospheric deposition transported to southward rapidly due to formation of STMW at potential densities of 25.1-25.3. In 2015 along 165 deg. E, FNPP1 radiocaesium corresponding STMW spread entire subtropical gyre and a part of them reached 2 deg. N and recirculated in the subtropical gyre and reached Japanese coast. 3, Mass balance of FNPP1 radiocaesium in the North Pacific 134Cs inventory was estimated to be 8 PBq in surface layer in summer 2012 (Inomata unpublished). Kaeriyama et al. (2016) estimated that 134Cs inventory in STWM in 2012 was about 4 PBq. We believe that FNPP1 derived 134Cs injected in the North Pacific was 15.2 - 18.3 PBq. Therefore 134Cs inventory can be estimated 3-6 PBq in CMW at this moment based on a mass balance of FNPP1 radiocaesium.

Radiation doses for pediatric nuclear medicine studies: comparing the North American consensus guidelines and the pediatric dosage card of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine.

PubMed

Grant, Frederick D; Gelfand, Michael J; Drubach, Laura A; Treves, S Ted; Fahey, Frederic H

2015-04-01

Estimated radiation dose is important for assessing and communicating the risks and benefits of pediatric nuclear medicine studies. Radiation dose depends on the radiopharmaceutical, the administered activity, and patient factors such as age and size. Most radiation dose estimates for pediatric nuclear medicine have not been based on administered activities of radiopharmaceuticals recommended by established practice guidelines. The dosage card of the European Association of Nuclear Medicine (EANM) and the North American consensus guidelines each provide recommendations of administered activities of radiopharmaceuticals in children, but there are substantial differences between these two guidelines. For 12 commonly performed pediatric nuclear medicine studies, two established pediatric radiopharmaceutical administration guidelines were used to calculate updated radiation dose estimates and to compare the radiation exposure resulting from the recommendations of each of the guidelines. Estimated radiation doses were calculated for 12 common procedures in pediatric nuclear medicine using administered activities recommended by the dosage card of the EANM (version 1.5.2008) and the 2010 North American consensus guidelines for radiopharmaceutical administered activities in pediatrics. Based on standard models and nominal age-based weights, radiation dose was estimated for typical patients at ages 1, 5, 10 and 15 years and adult. The resulting effective doses were compared, with differences greater than 20% considered significant. Following either the EANM dosage card or the 2010 North American guidelines, the highest effective doses occur with radiopharmaceuticals labeled with fluorine-18 and iodine-123. In 24% of cases, following the North American consensus guidelines would result in a substantially higher radiation dose. The guidelines of the EANM dosage card would lead to a substantially higher radiation dose in 39% of all cases, and in 62% of cases in which patients were age 5 years or younger. For 12 commonly performed pediatric nuclear medicine studies, updated radiation dose estimates can guide efforts to reduce radiation exposure and provide current information for discussing radiation exposure and risk with referring physicians, patients and families. There can be substantial differences in radiation exposure for the same procedure, depending upon which of these two guidelines is followed. This discordance identifies opportunities for harmonization of the guidelines, which may lead to further reduction in nuclear medicine radiation doses in children.

High-precision Location, Yield and Tectonic Release of North Korea's 3 September 2017 Nuclear Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J.; Tian, D.; Wen, L.

2017-12-01

On 3 September 2017, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) announced that it had successfully conducted a thermonuclear (hydrogen bomb) test. The nuclear test was collaborated by reports of a seismic event with a magnitude ranging from 6.1 to 6.3 by many governmental and international agencies, although its thermonuclear nature remains to be confirmed. In this study, by combining modern methods of high-precision relocation and satellite imagery, and using the knowledge of a previous test (North Korea's 9 September 2016 test) as reference, we determine the location and yield of North Korea's 2017 test. The location of the 2017 test is determined by deriving relative location between North Korea's 2017 and 2016 nuclear tests and using the previously determined location of the 2016 nuclear test by our group, while its yield is estimated based on the relative amplitude ratios of the Lg waves recorded for both events, the previously determined Lg-magnitude of the 2016 test and burial depth inferred from satellite imagery. The 2017 nuclear test is determined to be located at (41° 17' 53.52″ N, 129° 4' 27.12″ E) with a geographic precision of 100 m, and its yield is estimated to be 108±48 kt. The 2017 nuclear test and its four previous tests since 2009 are located several hundred meters apart, beneath the same mountain Mantap. We also evaluate the tectonic release by the 2017 nuclear test and discuss its implications for the yield estimation of the test.

Resonant Third-Degree Diurnal Tides in the Seas Off Western Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Third-degree diurnal tides are estimated from long time series of sea level measurements at three North Atlantic tide gauges. Although their amplitudes are only a few mm or less, their admittances are far larger than those of second-degree diurnal tides, just as Cartwright discovered for the M(sub 1) constituent. The tides are evidently resonantly enhanced owing to high spatial correlation between the third-degree spherical harmonic of the tidal potential and a near-diurnal oceanic normal mode that is most pronounced in the North Atlantic. By estimating the ocean tidal response across the diurnal band (5 tidal constituents plus nodal modulations), the period and Q of this mode and one nearby mode are estimated.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

Application of the Generalized Nonlinear Complementary Relationship for Estimating Evaporation in North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Wu, B.

2017-12-01

As an important part of the coupled Eco-Hydrological processes, evaporation is the bond for exchange of energy and heat between the surface and the atmosphere. However, the estimation of evaporation remains a challenge compared with other main hydrological factors in water cycle. The complementary relationship which proposed by Bouchet (1963) has laid the foundation for various approaches to estimate evaporation from land surfaces, the essence of the principle is a relationship between three types of evaporation in the environment. It can simply implemented with routine meteorological data without the need for resistance parameters of the vegetation and bare land, which are difficult to observed and complicated to estimate in most surface flux models. On this basis the generalized nonlinear formulation was proposed by Brutsaert (2015). The daily evaporation can be estimated once the potential evaporation (Epo) and apparent potential evaporation (Epa) are known. The new formulation has a strong physical basis and can be expected to perform better under natural water stress conditions, nevertheless, the model has not been widely validated over different climate types and underlying surface patterns. In this study, we attempted to apply the generalized nonlinear complementary relationship in North China, three flux stations in North China are used for testing the universality and accuracy of this model against observed evaporation over different vegetation types, including Guantao Site, Miyun Site and Huailai Site. Guantao Site has double-cropping systems and crop rotations with summer maize and winter wheat; the other two sites are dominated by spring maize. Detailed measurements of meteorological factors at certain heights above ground surface from automatic weather stations offered necessary parameters for daily evaporation estimation. Using the Bowen ratio, the surface energy measured by the eddy covariance systems at the flux stations is adjusted on a daily scale to satisfy the surface energy closure. After calibration the estimated daily evaporation are in good agreement with EC-measured flux data with a mean correlation coefficient in excess of 0.85. The results indicate that the generalized nonlinear complementary relationship can be applied in plant growing and non-growing season in North China.

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2008-01-01

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Estimation of Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects Over the Mid-Latitude North Atlantic from Satellite and In Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergstrom, Robert W.; Russell, P. B.

2000-01-01

We estimate solar radiative flux changes due to aerosols over the mid-latitude North Atlantic by combining optical depths from AVHRR measurements with aerosol properties from the recent TARFOX program. Results show that, over the ocean the aerosol decreases the net radiative flux at the tropopause and therefore has a cooling effect. Cloud-free, 24-hour average flux changes range from -9 W/sq m near the eastern US coast in summer to -1 W/sq m in the mid-Atlantic during winter. Cloud-free North Atlantic regional averages range from -5.1 W/sq m in summer to -1.7 W/sq m in winter, with an annual average of -3.5 W/sq m. Cloud effects estimated from ISCCP data, reduce the regional annual average to -0.8 W/sq m. All values are for the moderately absorbing TARFOX aerosol (omega(0.55 microns) = 0.9); values for a nonabsorbing aerosol are approx. 30% more negative. We compare our results to a variety of other calculations of aerosol radiative effects.

A regional high-resolution carbon flux inversion of North America for 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuh, A. E.; Denning, A. S.; Corbin, K. D.; Baker, I. T.; Uliasz, M.; Parazoo, N.; Andrews, A. E.; Worthy, D. E. J.

2010-05-01

Resolving the discrepancies between NEE estimates based upon (1) ground studies and (2) atmospheric inversion results, demands increasingly sophisticated techniques. In this paper we present a high-resolution inversion based upon a regional meteorology model (RAMS) and an underlying biosphere (SiB3) model, both running on an identical 40 km grid over most of North America. Current operational systems like CarbonTracker as well as many previous global inversions including the Transcom suite of inversions have utilized inversion regions formed by collapsing biome-similar grid cells into larger aggregated regions. An extreme example of this might be where corrections to NEE imposed on forested regions on the east coast of the United States might be the same as that imposed on forests on the west coast of the United States while, in reality, there likely exist subtle differences in the two areas, both natural and anthropogenic. Our current inversion framework utilizes a combination of previously employed inversion techniques while allowing carbon flux corrections to be biome independent. Temporally and spatially high-resolution results utilizing biome-independent corrections provide insight into carbon dynamics in North America. In particular, we analyze hourly CO2 mixing ratio data from a sparse network of eight towers in North America for 2004. A prior estimate of carbon fluxes due to Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (ER) is constructed from the SiB3 biosphere model on a 40 km grid. A combination of transport from the RAMS and the Parameterized Chemical Transport Model (PCTM) models is used to forge a connection between upwind biosphere fluxes and downwind observed CO2 mixing ratio data. A Kalman filter procedure is used to estimate weekly corrections to biosphere fluxes based upon observed CO2. RMSE-weighted annual NEE estimates, over an ensemble of potential inversion parameter sets, show a mean estimate 0.57 Pg/yr sink in North America. We perform the inversion with two independently derived boundary inflow conditions and calculate jackknife-based statistics to test the robustness of the model results. We then compare final results to estimates obtained from the CarbonTracker inversion system and at the Southern Great Plains flux site. Results are promising, showing the ability to correct carbon fluxes from the biosphere models over annual and seasonal time scales, as well as over the different GPP and ER components. Additionally, the correlation of an estimated sink of carbon in the South Central United States with regional anomalously high precipitation in an area of managed agricultural and forest lands provides interesting hypotheses for future work.

Concentrations, loads, and yields of nutrients and suspended sediment in the South Pacolet, North Pacolet, and Pacolet Rivers, northern South Carolina and southwestern North Carolina, October 2005 to September 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Feaster, Toby D.; Petkewich, Mattew D.; Bradley, Paul M.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Spartanburg Water, evaluated the concentrations, loads, and yields of suspended sediment, dissolved ammonia, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite, total organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, dissolved orthophosphate, dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus at sites in the South Pacolet, North Pacolet, and Pacolet Rivers in northern South Carolina and southwestern North Carolina from October 1, 2005, to September 30, 2009 (water years 2006 to 2009). Nutrient and sediment loads and yields also were computed for the intervening subbasin of the Pacolet River not represented by the South and North Pacolet River Basins. Except for a few outliers, the majority of the measurements of total nitrogen concentrations were well below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended guideline of 0.69 milligram per liter for streams and rivers in the nutrient ecoregion IX, which includes the study area within the Pacolet River Basin. Dissolved orthophosphate, dissolved phosphorus, and total phosphorus concentrations were significantly lower at the South Pacolet River site compared to the North Pacolet and Pacolet River sites. About 90 percent of the total phosphorus concentrations at the South Pacolet River site were below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended guideline of 0.37 milligram per liter, and more than 75 percent of the total phosphorus concentrations at the North Pacolet and Pacolet River sites were above that guideline. At all sites, minimum annual nutrient loads for the estimation period were observed during water year 2008 when severe drought conditions were present. An estimated mean annual total nitrogen load of 37,770 kilograms per year and yield of 2.63 kilograms per hectare per year were determined for the South Pacolet River site for the estimation period. The North Pacolet River site had a mean annual total nitrogen load of 65,890 kilograms per year and yield of 2.19 kilograms per hectare per year. The Pacolet River had a mean annual total nitrogen load of 99,780 kilograms per year and yield of 1.82 kilograms per hectare per year. Mean annual total phosphorus loads of 2,576; 9,404; and 11,710 kilograms per year and yields of 0.180, 0.313, and 0.213 kilograms per hectare per year were estimated at the South Pacolet, North Pacolet, and Pacolet River sites, respectively. Annually, the intervening subbasin of the Pacolet River contributed negligible amounts of total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads, and large losses of dissolved nitrate plus nitrite and orthophosphate loads were determined for the subbasin. Biological (algal) uptake in the two reservoirs in this intervening area was considered the likely explanation for the loss of these constituents. Estimated mean annual suspended-sediment loads were 21,190,000; 9,895,000; and 6,547,000 kilograms per year at the South Pacolet, North Pacolet, and Pacolet River sites, respectively. In the intervening Pacolet River subbasin, computed annual suspended-sediment loads were consistently negative, indicating large percentage losses in annual suspended-sediment load. Sedimentation processes in the two reservoirs are the most likely explanations for these apparent losses. At all sites, the winter season tended to have the highest estimated seasonal dissolved orthophosphate and dissolved nitrate plus nitrite fluxes, and the summer and fall seasons tended to have the lowest fluxes. The reverse pattern, however, was observed in the intervening drainage area in the Pacolet River where the lowest fluxes of dissolved orthophosphate and nitrate plus nitrite occurred during the winter and spring seasons and the highest occurred during the summer and fall seasons. Synoptic samples were collected during a high-flow event in August 2009 at eight sites that represented shoreline and minor tributary drainages. The South Pacolet River site was identified as contributing greater than 80 percent of the cumulative nutrient and sediment l

Estimating sturgeon abundance in the Carolinas using side-scan sonar

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

2015-01-01

Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) are one of the most threatened taxa worldwide, including species in North Carolina and South Carolina. Populations of Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus in the Carolinas have been significantly reduced from historical levels by a combination of intense fishing and habitat loss. There is a need for estimates of current abundance, to describe status, and for estimates of historical abundance in order to provide realistic recovery goals. In this study we used N-mixture and distance models with data acquired from side-scan sonar surveys to estimate abundance of sturgeon in six major sturgeon rivers in North Carolina and South Carolina. Estimated abundances of sturgeon greater than 1 m TL in the Carolina distinct population segment (DPS) were 2,031 using the count model and 1,912 via the distance model. The Pee Dee River had the highest overall abundance of any river at 1,944 (count model) or 1,823 (distance model). These estimates do not account for sturgeon less than 1 m TL or occurring in riverine reaches not surveyed or in marine waters. Comparing the two models, the N-mixture model produced similar estimates using less data than the distance model with only a slight reduction of estimated precision.

Economic impacts of Medicaid in North Carolina.

PubMed

Dumas, Christopher; Hall, William; Garrett, Patricia

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide estimates of the economic impacts of Medicaid program expenditures in North Carolina in state fiscal year (SFY) 2003. The study uses input-output analysis to estimate the economic impacts of Medicaid expenditures. The study uses North Carolina Medicaid program expenditure data for SFY 2003 as submitted by the North Carolina Division of Medical Assistance to the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Industry structure data from 2002 that are part of the IMPLAN input-output modeling software database are also used in the analysis. In SFY 2003 $6.307 billion in Medicaid program expenditures occurred within the state of North Carolina-$3.941 billion federal dollars, $2.014 billion state dollars, and $351 million in local government funds. Each dollar of state and local government expenditures brought $1.67 in federal Medicaid cost-share to the state. The economic impacts within North Carolina of the 2003 Medicaid expenditures included the following: 182,000 jobs supported (including both full-time and some part-time jobs); $6.1 billion in labor income (wages, salaries, sole proprietorship/partnership profits); and $1.9 billion in capital income (rents, interest payments, corporate dividend payments). If the Medicaid program were shut down and the funds returned to taxpayers who saved/spent the funds according to typical consumer expenditure patterns, employment in North Carolina would fall by an estimated 67,400 jobs, and labor income would fall by $2.83 billion, due to the labor-intensive nature of Medicaid expenditures. Medicaid expenditure and economic impact results do not capture the economic value of the improved health and well-being of Medicaid recipients. Furthermore, the results do not capture the savings to society from increased preventive care and reduced uncompensated care resulting from Medicaid. State and local government expenditures do not fully capture the economic consequences of Medicaid in North Carolina. This study finds that Medicaid makes a large contribution to state and local economic activity by creating jobs, income, and profit in North Carolina. Any changes to the Medicaid program should be made with caution. The rising costs of health care and the appropriate role of government health insurance programs are the object of current policy debates. Informed discussion of these issues requires good information on the economic and health consequences of alternative policy choices. This is the first systematic study of the broader economic impacts of Medicaid expenditures in North Carolina.

Thermographic Data Analyses for Karst Watersheds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, C. Warren; McCaleb, Rebecca C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Aerial thermography is an emerging technology unsurpassed for locating groundwater discharges. Thermography can be used to locate submerged discharges that are extremely difficult to find by other means. In two large projects, thermography was used to identify almost every significant spring at sites underlain by karst aquifers. This technology effectively converts Brown's Type 5 topology to types 1 or 2 (all discharges known), which has a significant impact on dye tracing. At a north Alabama site, springs located by thermography quadrupled the known groundwater discharge in and around the site. For submerged discharges, thermographic temperatures can be measured down the center of the groundwater plume that rises to the surface in the winter. Using the Cornell Mixing (CORMIX) model, flow rate for one submerged spring was estimated. Once identified, estimates of spring recharge area were desired. The size of the area of recharge was estimated by hydrograph separation of flow data from nearby, unregulated surface streams. Monthly recharge estimates were also made and used to show that in north Alabama the mean annual recharge/discharge occurs during May and December. Spring flow measurements for the same county of north Alabama were averaged to obtain mean flows. Then measurements for May only, were averaged. The two averages usually agreed to within 20 percent. This provides evidence that hydrograph separation determinations of recharge are valid.

Regional ground-water discharge to large streams in the upper coastal plain of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aucott, W.R.; Meadows, R.S.; Patterson, G.G.

1987-01-01

Base flow was computed to estimate discharge from regional aquifers for six large streams in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Georgia. Aquifers that sustain the base flow of both large and small streams are stratified into shallow and deep flow systems. Base-flow during dry conditions on main stems of large streams was assumed to be the discharge from the deep groundwater flow system. Six streams were analyzed: the Savannah, South and North Fork Edisto, Lynches, Pee Dee, and the Luber Rivers. Stream reaches in the Upper Coastal Plain were studied because of the relatively large aquifer discharge in these areas in comparison to the lower Coastal Plain. Estimates of discharge from the deep groundwater flow system to the six large streams averaged 1.8 cu ft/sec/mi of stream and 0.11 cu ft/sec/sq mi of surface drainage area. The estimates were made by subtracting all tributary inflows from the discharge gain between two gaging stations on a large stream during an extreme low-flow period. These estimates pertain only to flow in the deep groundwater flow system. Shallow flow systems and total base flow are > flow in the deep system. (USGS)

Aerial Surveys Give New Estimates for Orangutans in Sabah, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Gimenez, Olivier; Ambu, Laurentius; Ancrenaz, Karine; Andau, Patrick; Goossens, Benoît; Payne, John; Sawang, Azri; Tuuga, Augustine; Lackman-Ancrenaz, Isabelle

2005-01-01

Great apes are threatened with extinction, but precise information about the distribution and size of most populations is currently lacking. We conducted orangutan nest counts in the Malaysian state of Sabah (North Borneo), using a combination of ground and helicopter surveys, and provided a way to estimate the current distribution and size of the populations living throughout the entire state. We show that the number of nests detected during aerial surveys is directly related to the estimated true animal density and that a helicopter is an efficient tool to provide robust estimates of orangutan numbers. Our results reveal that with a total estimated population size of about 11,000 individuals, Sabah is one of the main strongholds for orangutans in North Borneo. More than 60% of orangutans living in the state occur outside protected areas, in production forests that have been through several rounds of logging extraction and are still exploited for timber. The role of exploited forests clearly merits further investigation for orangutan conservation in Sabah. PMID:15630475

Identification of unrecognized tundra fire events on the north slope of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Breen, Amy L.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Grosse, Guido; Arp, Christopher D.; Kunz, Michael L.; Walker, Donald A.

2013-01-01

Characteristics of the natural fire regime are poorly resolved in the Arctic, even though fire may play an important role cycling carbon stored in tundra vegetation and soils to the atmosphere. In the course of studying vegetation and permafrost-terrain characteristics along a chronosequence of tundra burn sites from AD 1977, 1993, and 2007 on the North Slope of Alaska, we discovered two large, previously unrecognized tundra fires. The Meade River fire burned an estimated 500 km2 and the Ketik River fire burned an estimated 1200 km2. Based on radiocarbon dating of charred twigs, analysis of historic aerial photography, and regional climate proxy data, these fires likely occurred between AD 1880 and 1920. Together, these events double the estimated burn area on the North Slope of Alaska over the last ~100 to 130 years. Assessment of vegetation succession along the century-scale chronosequence of tundra fire disturbances demonstrates for the first time on the North Slope of Alaska that tundra fires can facilitate the invasion of tundra by shrubs. Degradation of ice-rich permafrost was also evident at the fire sites and likely aided in the presumed changes of the tundra vegetation postfire. Other previously unrecognized tundra fire events likely exist in Alaska and other Arctic regions and identification of these sites is important for better understanding disturbance regimes and carbon cycling in Arctic tundra.

Osprey distribution, abundance, and status in western North America: II. The Oregon population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henny, C.J.; Collins, J.A.; Deibert, W.J.

1978-01-01

An estimated 308 ? 23 pairs of Ospreys nested in the survey area in Oregon in 1976. Major concentration centers include Crane Prairie Reservoir and the adjacent Deschutes National Forest, the coastal lakes and reservoirs between Florence and North Bend, the Rogue River, the Lane County reservoirs, and the Umpqua River. An estimated 47 percent of the Oregon population is nesting at reservoirs. Limited information is available concerning the long-term status of the Oregon population; however, the ability of the species to pioneer newly created reservoirs emphasizes that the population is utilizing new habitats.

Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian

2005-09-15

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network topology and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric grids are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabási-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using other methods and they suggest that scale-free network models are usable to estimate aggregate electric grid reliability.

Evaluating North American Electric Grid Reliability Using the Barabasi-Albert Network Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chassin, David P.; Posse, Christian

2005-09-15

The reliability of electric transmission systems is examined using a scale-free model of network topology and failure propagation. The topologies of the North American eastern and western electric grids are analyzed to estimate their reliability based on the Barabasi-Albert network model. A commonly used power system reliability index is computed using a simple failure propagation model. The results are compared to the values of power system reliability indices previously obtained using standard power engineering methods, and they suggest that scale-free network models are usable to estimate aggregate electric grid reliability.

Reserve growth in oil fields of the North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.; Gautier, D.L.

2005-01-01

The assessment of petroleum resources of the North Sea, as well as other areas of the world, requires a viable means to forecast the amount of growth of reserve estimates (reserve growth) for discovered fields and to predict the potential fully developed sizes of undiscovered fields. This study investigates the utility of North Sea oil field data to construct reserve-growth models. Oil fields of the North Sea provide an excellent dataset in which to examine the mechanisms, characteristics, rates and quantities of reserve growth because of the high level of capital investments, implementation of sophisticated technologies and careful data collection. Additionally, these field data are well reported and available publicly. Increases in successive annual estimat es of recoverable crude oil volumes indicate that oil fields in the North Sea, collectively and in each country, experience reserve growth. Specific patterns of reserve growth are observed among countries and primary producing reservoir-rock types. Since 1985, Norwegian oil fields had the greatest volume increase; Danish oil fields increased by the greatest percentage relative to 1985 estimates; and British oil fields experienced an increase in recoverable oil estimates for the first ten years since 1985, followed by a slight reduction. Fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs account for the majority of the estimated recoverable oil and, therefore, these fields had the largest volumetric increase. Fields producing primarily from chalk (limestone) reservoirs increased by a greater percentage relative to 1985 estimates than did fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs. Additionally, the largest oil fields had the greatest volumetric increases. Although different reserve-growth patterns are observed among oil fields located in different countries, the small number of fields in Denmark precludes construction of reserve-growth models for that country. However, differences in reserve-growth patterns among oil fields that produce from primarily clastic and primarily chalk reservoirs, in addition to a greater number of fields in each of the two categories, allow separate reserve-growth models to be constructed based on reservoir-rock type. Reserve-growth models referenced to the date of discovery and to the date of first production may be constructed from North Sea field data. Years since discovery or years since first production are used as surrogates for, or measures of, field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth. Better estimates of recoverable oil are made as fields are developed. Because much of the field development occurs some time later than the field discovery date, reserve-growth models referenced to the date of first production may provide a more appropriate measure of development than does date of discovery. ?? 2005 EAGE/Geological Society of London.

Short-Term Response of Jordan's Salamander to a Shelterwood Timber Harvest in Western North Carolina

Treesearch

Chad E. Bartman; Kathleen C. Parker; Joshua Laerm; Timothy S. McCay

2001-01-01

The effects of shelterwood cutting on the abundance of Jordan's salamander (Plethodon jordani) in western North Carolina were examined during 1997 and 1998. Terrestrial salamander assemblages were sampled before, immediately after, and one year after timber harvest on control and treatment plots to estimate abundance. We also surveyed...

Vocational Education and Corrections: An Assessment of Opportunities and Needs in North Carolina. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davison, Pamela

A study was done to determine North Carolina inmates' vocational education/training needs, parolees' and ex-offenders' employment opportunities, and available vocational education/training resources. To determine vocational educational needs, a survey was conducted of inmates at seventeen correctional units (for adults and for youth). Estimates of…

The status of North Carolina's national forests, 2002

Treesearch

Sonja N. Oswalt; Tony G. Johnson

2007-01-01

This bulletin describes forest resources of the Pisgah/Cherokee, Nantahala, Croatan, and Uwharrie National Forests in the State of North Carolina. It is based on sampling conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis Research Work Unit. This bulletin addresses forest area estimates; timber...

COARSE PARTICULATE MATTER CONCENTRATIONS FROM RESIDENTIAL OUTDOOR SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA ASTHMA AND CHILDREN'S ENVIRONMENT STUDIES (NC-ACES)

EPA Science Inventory

Coarse particulate matter (PM_10-2.5) concentration data from residential outdoor sites were collected using portable samplers as part of an exposure assessment for the North Carolina Asthma and Children's Environment Study (NC-ACES). PMcoarse values were estimated usi...

Notes on LCW Activation Calculation for Neutron Imaging Operations in the North Cave of Building 194

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, S. G.

This note estimates the amount of activation that could be produced in the Facilities-provided Low Conductivity Water (LCW) that is proposed to be used for cooling of electromagnets and beam stops in the Neutron Imaging (NI) accelerator project in the North Cave of Building 194.

Calculating the ecosystem service of water storage in isolated wetlands using LiDAR in north central Florida, USA (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

This study used remotely-sensed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate potential water storage capacity of isolated wetlands in north central Florida. The data were used to calculate the water storage potential of >8500 polygons identified as isolated wetlands. We f...

Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds

Treesearch

Frank A. La Sorte; Frank R., III Thompson

2007-01-01

Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however, the spatial dynamics, mechanisms, and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries, center of occurrence, and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North...

Calculating the ecosystem service of water storage in isolated wetlands using LIDAR in north central Florida, USA

EPA Science Inventory

This study used remotely-sensed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to estimate potential water storage capacity of isolated wetlands in north central Florida. The data were used to calculate the water storage potential of >8500 polygons identified as isolated wetlands. We ...

Evaluating imputation and modeling in the North Central region

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2000-01-01

The objectives of the North Central Research Station, USDA Forest Service, in developing procedures for annual forest inventories include establishing the capability of producing annual estimates of timber volume and related variables. The inventory system developed to accomplish these objectives features an annual sample of measured field plots and techniques for...

Biomass equations for shrub species of Tamualipan thornscrub of North-Eastern Mexico

Treesearch

J. Navar; E. Mendez; A. Najera; J. Graciano; V. Dale; B. Parresol

2004-01-01

Nine additive allometric equations for computing above-ground, standing biomass were developed for the plant community and for each of 18 single species typical of the Tamaulipan thornscrub of north-eastern Mexico. Equations developed using additive procedures in seemingly unrelated linear regression provided statistical efficiency in total biomass estimates at the...

Using Elementary Mechanics to Estimate the Maximum Range of ICBMs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amato, Joseph

2018-01-01

North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and, more recently, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has added a grave threat to world order. The threat presented by these weapons depends critically on missile range, i.e., the ability to reach North America or Europe while carrying a nuclear warhead. Using the limited information available…

Polyphyly of the Padus group of Prunus (Rosaceae) and the evolution of biogeographic disjunctions between eastern Asia and eastern North America.

PubMed

Liu, Xiao-Lin; Wen, Jun; Nie, Ze-Long; Johnson, Gabriel; Liang, Zong-Suo; Chang, Zhao-Yang

2013-05-01

Prunus subgenus Padus is a group with a wide distribution in temperate eastern Asia and eastern North America with one species extending to Europe and one to Central America. Phylogenetic relationships of subgenus Padus were reconstructed using sequences of nuclear ribosomal ITS, and plastid ndhF gene, and rps16 intron and rpl16 intron. Prunus subgenus Padus is shown to be polyphyletic. Taxa of subgenus Padus and subgenus Laurocerasus are highly intermixed in both the ITS and the plastid trees. The results support two disjunctions between eastern North America and Eurasia within the Padus group. One disjunction is between Prunus virginiana of eastern North America and P. padus of Eurasia, estimated to have diverged at 2.99 (95 % HPD 0.59-6.15)-4.1 (95 % HPD 0.63-8.59) mya. The other disjunction is between P. serotina and its Asian relatives. The second disjunction may have occurred earlier than the former one, but the age estimate is difficult due to the unresolved phylogenetic position of the P. serotina complex.

Genetic population structure of the malaria vector Anopheles baimaii in north-east India using mitochondrial DNA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Anopheles baimaii is a primary vector of human malaria in the forest settings of Southeast Asia including the north-eastern region of India. Here, the genetic population structure and the basic population genetic parameters of An. baimaii in north-east India were estimated using DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase sub unit II (COII) gene. Methods Anopheles baimaii were collected from 26 geo-referenced locations across the seven north-east Indian states and the COII gene was sequenced from 176 individuals across these sites. Fifty-seven COII sequences of An. baimaii from six locations in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand from a previous study were added to this dataset. Altogether, 233 sequences were grouped into eight population groups, to facilitate analyses of genetic diversity, population structure and population history. Results A star-shaped median joining haplotype network, unimodal mismatch distribution and significantly negative neutrality tests indicated population expansion in An. baimaii with the start of expansion estimated to be ~0.243 million years before present (MYBP) in north-east India. The populations of An. baimaii from north-east India had the highest haplotype and nucleotide diversity with all other populations having a subset of this diversity, likely as the result of range expansion from north-east India. The north-east Indian populations were genetically distinct from those in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand, indicating that mountains, such as the Arakan mountain range between north-east India and Myanmar, are a significant barrier to gene flow. Within north-east India, there was no genetic differentiation among populations with the exception of the Central 2 population in the Barail hills area that was significantly differentiated from other populations. Conclusions The high genetic distinctiveness of the Central 2 population in the Barail hills area of the north-east India should be confirmed and its epidemiological significance further investigated. The lack of genetic population structure in the other north-east Indian populations likely reflects large population sizes of An. baimaii that, historically, were able to disperse through continuous forest habitats in the north-east India. Additional markers and analytical approaches are required to determine if recent deforestation is now preventing ongoing gene flow. Until such information is acquired, An. baimaii in north-east India should be treated as a single unit for the implementation of vector control measures. PMID:22429500

75 FR 78726 - Agency Information Collection Activities: North American Free Trade Agreement Duty Deferral

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-16

... information technology; and (e) the annual costs burden to respondents or record keepers from the collection.... Estimated Time per Response: 12 minutes. Estimated Total Annual Burden Hours: 280. Dated: December 13, 2010...

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Kara Basins and Platforms Province, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, Timothy R.; Pitman, Janet K.; Moore, Thomas E.; Gautier, D.L.

2017-11-15

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently assessed the potential for undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Kara Basins and Platforms Province as part of the its Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. This geologic province is north of western Siberia, Russian Federation, in the North Kara Sea between Novaya Zemlya to the west and Severnaya Zemlya to the east. One assessment unit (AU) was defined, the North Kara Basins and Platforms AU, which coincides with the geologic province. This AU was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable resources. The total estimated mean volumes of undiscovered petroleum resources in the province are ~1.8 billion barrels of crude oil, ~15.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and ~0.4 billion barrels of natural-gas liquids, all north of the Arctic Circle.

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Red River of the North, Fargo, North Dakota, 2003-05

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, done in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, U.S. Department of the Interior, to estimate water-quality constituent concentrations in the Red River of the North at Fargo, North Dakota. Regression analysis of water-quality data collected in 2003-05 was used to estimate concentrations and loads for alkalinity, dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, total nitrite plus nitrate, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment. The explanatory variables examined for regression relation were continuously monitored physical properties of water-streamflow, specific conductance, pH, water temperature, turbidity, and dissolved oxygen. For the conditions observed in 2003-05, streamflow was a significant explanatory variable for all estimated constituents except dissolved solids. pH, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen were not statistically significant explanatory variables for any of the constituents in this study. Specific conductance was a significant explanatory variable for alkalinity, dissolved solids, sulfate, and chloride. Turbidity was a significant explanatory variable for total phosphorus and suspended sediment. For the nutrients, total nitrite plus nitrate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus, cosine and sine functions of time also were used to explain the seasonality in constituent concentrations. The regression equations were evaluated using common measures of variability, including R2, or the proportion of variability in the estimated constituent explained by the regression equation. R2 values ranged from 0.703 for total nitrogen concentration to 0.990 for dissolved-solids concentration. The regression equations also were evaluated by calculating the median relative percentage difference (RPD) between measured constituent concentration and the constituent concentration estimated by the regression equations. Median RPDs ranged from 1.1 for dissolved solids to 35.2 for total nitrite plus nitrate. Regression equations also were used to estimate daily constituent loads. Load estimates can be used by water-quality managers for comparison of current water-quality conditions to water-quality standards expressed as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). TMDLs are a measure of the maximum amount of chemical constituents that a water body can receive and still meet established water-quality standards. The peak loads generally occurred in June and July when streamflow also peaked.

Novel SVM-based technique to improve rainfall estimation over the Mediterranean region (north of Algeria) using the multispectral MSG SEVIRI imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sehad, Mounir; Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

2017-03-01

In this work, a new rainfall estimation technique based on the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra Red Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is presented. This work proposes efficient scheme rainfall estimation based on two multiclass support vector machine (SVM) algorithms: SVM_D for daytime and SVM_N for night time rainfall estimations. Both SVM models are trained using relevant rainfall parameters based on optical, microphysical and textural cloud proprieties. The cloud parameters are derived from the Spectral channels of the SEVIRI MSG radiometer. The 3-hourly and daily accumulated rainfall are derived from the 15 min-rainfall estimation given by the SVM classifiers for each MSG observation image pixel. The SVMs were trained with ground meteorological radar precipitation scenes recorded from November 2006 to March 2007 over the north of Algeria located in the Mediterranean region. Further, the SVM_D and SVM_N models were used to estimate 3-hourly and daily rainfall using data set gathered from November 2010 to March 2011 over north Algeria. The results were validated against collocated rainfall observed by rain gauge network. Indeed, the statistical scores given by correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error and mean absolute error, showed good accuracy of rainfall estimates by the present technique. Moreover, rainfall estimates of our technique were compared with two high accuracy rainfall estimates methods based on MSG SEVIRI imagery namely: random forests (RF) based approach and an artificial neural network (ANN) based technique. The findings of the present technique indicate higher correlation coefficient (3-hourly: 0.78; daily: 0.94), and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error values. The results show that the new technique assign 3-hourly and daily rainfall with good and better accuracy than ANN technique and (RF) model.

North error estimation based on solar elevation errors in the third step of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation.

PubMed

Száz, Dénes; Farkas, Alexandra; Barta, András; Kretzer, Balázs; Egri, Ádám; Horváth, Gábor

2016-07-01

The theory of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation has been widely accepted for decades without any information about the accuracy of this method. Previously, we have measured the accuracy of the first and second steps of this navigation method in psychophysical laboratory and planetarium experiments. Now, we have tested the accuracy of the third step in a planetarium experiment, assuming that the first and second steps are errorless. Using the fists of their outstretched arms, 10 test persons had to estimate the elevation angles (measured in numbers of fists and fingers) of black dots (representing the position of the occluded Sun) projected onto the planetarium dome. The test persons performed 2400 elevation estimations, 48% of which were more accurate than ±1°. We selected three test persons with the (i) largest and (ii) smallest elevation errors and (iii) highest standard deviation of the elevation error. From the errors of these three persons, we calculated their error function, from which the North errors (the angles with which they deviated from the geographical North) were determined for summer solstice and spring equinox, two specific dates of the Viking sailing period. The range of possible North errors Δ ω N was the lowest and highest at low and high solar elevations, respectively. At high elevations, the maximal Δ ω N was 35.6° and 73.7° at summer solstice and 23.8° and 43.9° at spring equinox for the best and worst test person (navigator), respectively. Thus, the best navigator was twice as good as the worst one. At solstice and equinox, high elevations occur the most frequently during the day, thus high North errors could occur more frequently than expected before. According to our findings, the ideal periods for sky-polarimetric Viking navigation are immediately after sunrise and before sunset, because the North errors are the lowest at low solar elevations.

North error estimation based on solar elevation errors in the third step of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation

PubMed Central

Száz, Dénes; Farkas, Alexandra; Barta, András; Kretzer, Balázs; Egri, Ádám

2016-01-01

The theory of sky-polarimetric Viking navigation has been widely accepted for decades without any information about the accuracy of this method. Previously, we have measured the accuracy of the first and second steps of this navigation method in psychophysical laboratory and planetarium experiments. Now, we have tested the accuracy of the third step in a planetarium experiment, assuming that the first and second steps are errorless. Using the fists of their outstretched arms, 10 test persons had to estimate the elevation angles (measured in numbers of fists and fingers) of black dots (representing the position of the occluded Sun) projected onto the planetarium dome. The test persons performed 2400 elevation estimations, 48% of which were more accurate than ±1°. We selected three test persons with the (i) largest and (ii) smallest elevation errors and (iii) highest standard deviation of the elevation error. From the errors of these three persons, we calculated their error function, from which the North errors (the angles with which they deviated from the geographical North) were determined for summer solstice and spring equinox, two specific dates of the Viking sailing period. The range of possible North errors ΔωN was the lowest and highest at low and high solar elevations, respectively. At high elevations, the maximal ΔωN was 35.6° and 73.7° at summer solstice and 23.8° and 43.9° at spring equinox for the best and worst test person (navigator), respectively. Thus, the best navigator was twice as good as the worst one. At solstice and equinox, high elevations occur the most frequently during the day, thus high North errors could occur more frequently than expected before. According to our findings, the ideal periods for sky-polarimetric Viking navigation are immediately after sunrise and before sunset, because the North errors are the lowest at low solar elevations. PMID:27493566

Monitoring the shorebirds of North America: Towards a unified approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, S.K.; Bart, J.; Andres, B.; Brown, S.; Donaldson, G.; Harrington, B.; Johnston, V.; Jones, S.L.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) has recently developed a single blueprint for monitoring shorebirds in Canada and the United States in response to needs identified by recent shorebird conservation plans. The goals of PRISM are to: (1) estimate the size of breeding populations of 74 shorebird taxa in North America; (2) describe the distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships for these taxa; (3) monitor trends in shorebird population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at stopover locations, and; (5) assist local managers in meeting their shorebird conservation goals. The initial focus has been on developing methods to estimate trends in population size. A three-part approach for estimating trends includes: (1) breeding surveys in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions, (2) migration surveys, and (3) wintering surveys.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott

2010-01-01

Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

Current Sierra Nevada-North America motion from very long baseline interferometry: Implications for the kinematics of the western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Argus, D.F.; Gordon, R.G.

1991-11-01

The authors use geodetic measurements from very long baseline interferometry to estimate the motion of the Sierra Nevadan microplate. The motion of the Sierra Nevadan microplate relative to the North American plate is described by a right-handed rotation of 0.61{degree}/m.y. about lat 32{degree}N, long 128{degree}W. This Euler pole predicts a significant counterclockwise rotation about a local vertical axis. It further predicts a velocity of the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada relative to stable North America of 11 {plus minus}1 mm/yr toward N36{degree} {plus minus}3{degree}W, which accounts for about one-fourth of the velocity between the Pacific and North American platesmore » and is {approximately}25{degree} clockwise of many prior estimates. The velocity nearly parallels the boundary between the Sierra Nevada and the Great Basin, which implies that current motion within the Great Basin results in a rotational, noncoaxial deformation. The authors use this velocity to estimate how motion is distributed across the broad deforming zone taking up Pacific-North America plate motion. They find that the vector sum of strike slip along the San Andreas fault and motion of the Sierra Nevada relative to stable North America (taken up by deformation within the Great Basin) differs little from the Pacific-north America plate velocity. The difference can be described at 36{degree}N along the San Andreas fault by a vector of 6 mm/yr directed toward N20{degree}W. This vector resolves into components of 5 mm/yr parallel to the fault and 2 mm/yr perpendicular to the fault with 95% confidence intervals of 0 to 10 mm/yr and {minus}1 to +5 mm/yr, respectively. The authors conclude that motion previously inferred to be taken up by deformation other than strike slip along the San Andreas fault or deformation within the Great Basin is much smaller than previously thought.« less

Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Dixon, Timothy H.; Myers, Paul G.; Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of ocean thermohaline circulation. Melting of Greenland's ice sheet is freshening the North Atlantic; however, whether the augmented freshwater flux is disrupting the AMOC is unclear. Dense Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by winter cooling of saline North Atlantic water and subsequent convection, is a key component of the deep southward return flow of the AMOC. Although LSW formation recently decreased, it also reached historically high values in the mid-1990s, making the connection to the freshwater flux unclear. Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland using updated GRACE satellite data, present new flux estimates for heat and salt from the North Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and explain recent variations in LSW formation. We suggest that changes in LSW can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening.

Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation.

PubMed

Yang, Qian; Dixon, Timothy H; Myers, Paul G; Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don; van den Broeke, M R

2016-01-22

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of ocean thermohaline circulation. Melting of Greenland's ice sheet is freshening the North Atlantic; however, whether the augmented freshwater flux is disrupting the AMOC is unclear. Dense Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by winter cooling of saline North Atlantic water and subsequent convection, is a key component of the deep southward return flow of the AMOC. Although LSW formation recently decreased, it also reached historically high values in the mid-1990s, making the connection to the freshwater flux unclear. Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland using updated GRACE satellite data, present new flux estimates for heat and salt from the North Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and explain recent variations in LSW formation. We suggest that changes in LSW can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening.

Estimated water use, by county, in North Carolina, 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, D.A.

1997-01-01

Data on water use in North Carolina were compiled for 1995 as part of a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Division of Water Resources of the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Data were compiled from a number of Federal, State, and private sources for the offstream water-use categories of public supply, domestic, commercial, industrial, mining, livestock, irrigation, and thermoelectric-power generation. Data also were collected for instream use from hydroelectric facilities. Total withdrawals (fresh and saline) during 1995 were an estimated 9,286 million gallons per day for the offstream water-use categories. About 94 percent of the water withdrawn was from surface water. Thermoelectric-power generation accounted for 80 percent of all withdrawals. Instream water use for hydroelectric-power generation totaled about 56,400 million gallons per day. Each water-use category is summarized in this report by county and source of water supply.

Molecular systematics and global phylogeography of angel sharks (genus Squatina).

PubMed

Stelbrink, Björn; von Rintelen, Thomas; Cliff, Geremy; Kriwet, Jürgen

2010-02-01

Angel sharks of the genus Squatina represent a group comprising 22 extant benthic species inhabiting continental shelves and upper slopes. In the present study, a comprehensive phylogenetic reconstruction of 17 Squatina species based on two mitochondrial markers (COI and 16S rRNA) is provided. The phylogenetic reconstructions are used to test biogeographic patterns. In addition, a molecular clock analysis is conducted to estimate divergence times of the emerged clades. All analyses show Squatina to be monophyletic. Four geographic clades are recognized, of which the Europe-North Africa-Asia clade is probably a result of the Tethys Sea closure. A second sister group relationship emerged in the analyses, including S. californica (eastern North Pacific) and S. dumeril (western North Atlantic), probably related to the rise of the Panamanian isthmus. The molecular clock analysis show that both lineage divergences coincide with the estimated time of these two geological events. Copyright (c) 2009. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Variation in health care for children and young people with cerebral palsies: a retrospective multicentre audit study.

PubMed

Horridge, Karen; Tennant, Peter W G; Balu, Rajesh; Rankin, Judith

2015-09-01

To explore the provision and variations in care for children and young people with cerebral palsies (CP) registered with the population-based North of England Collaborative Cerebral Palsy Survey (NECCPS). This is a retrospective multicentre record audit of 389 children with CP (220 males, 148 females, 21 no data; median age at time of audit 12y 3mo), born between 1995 and 2002. Data were collected on cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), hip and spine surveillance and management, and pain presence and management. Variations over time and between the districts in the north of England (Northumberland, North and West Cumbria, North and South Tyneside, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Gateshead, Sunderland, Durham, Darlington, Bishop Auckland, Hartlepool, Stockton-on-Tees, Middlesbrough, Redcar, and Cleveland), and by socio-economic status (SES) (estimated from the Index of Multiple Deprivation [IMD] 2004) were estimated by generalized estimating equations. There was significant variation between districts in access to MRI (p<0.001), orthopaedic surgeons (p=0.005), recording state of spine (p<0.001), and discussions about pain (p<0.001). Fifty-seven per cent (95% CI 52-62) had evidence of a reported MRI brain scan, the proportion of which increased over time (p<0.001). Sixty-seven per cent (95% CI 62-71) had a discussion about pain recorded. Of those in pain, 87% (95% CI 80-93) had a pain management plan. The proportion with documented discussion about pain increased with increasing SES (p=0.04). The provision of care for children with CP in the north of England varies between districts. Internationally agreed, evidence-based standards are urgently needed to ensure more equitable health care and improved outcomes for all. © 2015 Mac Keith Press.

Location and source characteristics of the 2016 January 6 North Korean nuclear test constrained by InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Meng

2017-05-01

The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency ALOS-2 satellite show possible deformation associated with the 2016 January 6 North Korean nuclear test whereas the European Space Agency Sentinel-1A data are decorrelated. This is the first time that deformation related to a nuclear test has been measured since 1992. Here, I present two interpretations of the observed deformation: First, the deformation can be explained by a triggered landslide on the western slope of Mt Mantap, with a displacement of up to 10 cm across a patch of 1 km2. Second, the observation may be from uplift created by the nuclear explosion. In the second interpretation, the location, depth and cavity size can be estimated from a topography-corrected homogenous half-space model (Mogi). The preferred location of the 2016 January 6 event is 41.2993°N 129.0715°E, with an uncertainty of 100 m. The estimated depth is 420-700 m and the cavity radius is 23-27 m. Based on empirical data and the assumption of granite as the host rock, the yield is estimated to be 11.6-24.4 kilotons of TNT, which is consistent with previous results based on seismic data. With these two interpretations, I demonstrate that InSAR data provide an independent tool to locate and estimate source characteristics of nuclear tests in North Korea. The ambiguity of interpretation is mainly due to the limited InSAR data acquisition. Future frequent data collection by current and upcoming InSAR satellites will allow full use of InSAR for nuclear monitoring and characterization in North Korea and around the world.

Estimating temporal and spatial variation of ocean surface pCO2 in the North Pacific using a Self Organizing Map neural network technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakaoka, S.; Telszewski, M.; Nojiri, Y.; Yasunaka, S.; Miyazaki, C.; Mukai, H.; Usui, N.

2013-03-01

This study produced maps of the partial pressure of oceanic carbon dioxide (pCO2sea) in the North Pacific on a 0.25° latitude × 0.25° longitude grid from 2002 to 2008. The pCO2sea values were estimated by using a self-organizing map neural network technique to explain the non-linear relationships between observed pCO2sea data and four oceanic parameters: sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth, chlorophyll a concentration, and sea surface salinity (SSS). The observed pCO2sea data was obtained from an extensive dataset generated by the volunteer observation ship program operated by the National Institute for Environmental Studies. The reconstructed pCO2sea values agreed rather well with the pCO2sea measurements, the root mean square error being 17.6 μatm. The pCO2sea estimates were improved by including SSS as one of the training parameters and by taking into account secular increases of pCO2sea that have tracked increases in atmospheric CO2. Estimated pCO2sea values accurately reproduced pCO2sea data at several stations in the North Pacific. The distributions of pCO2sea revealed by seven-year averaged monthly pCO2sea maps were similar to Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory pCO2sea climatology and more precisely reflected oceanic conditions. The distributions of pCO2sea anomalies over the North Pacific during the winter clearly showed regional contrasts between El Niño and La Niña years related to changes of SST and vertical mixing.

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause.

PubMed

Howard, G

1993-09-01

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

Thickness of Santa Fe Group sediments in the Espanola Basin south of Santa Fe, New Mexico, as estimated from aeromagnetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, Jeffrey D.; Grauch, V.J.S.

2004-01-01

In the southern Espa?ola basin south of Santa Fe, New Mexico, weakly magnetic Santa Fe Group sediments of Oligocene to Pleistocene age, which represent the primary aquifers for the region, are locally underlain by moderately to strongly magnetic igneous and volcaniclastic rocks of Oligocene age. Where this relationship exists, the thickness of Santa Fe Group sediments, and thus the maximum thickness of the aquifers, can be estimated from quantitative analysis of high-resolution aeromagnetic data. These thickness estimates provide guidance for characterizing the ground-water resources in between scattered water wells in this area of rapid urban development and declining water supplies. This report presents one such analysis based on the two-step extended Euler method for estimating depth to magnetic sources. The results show the general form of a north-trending synclinal basin located between the Cerrillos Hills and Eldorado with northward thickening of Santa Fe Group sediments. The increase in thickness is gradual from the erosional edge on the south to a U-shaped Santa Fe embayment hinge line, north of which sediments thicken much more dramatically. Along the north-south basin axis, Santa Fe Group sediments thicken from 300 feet (91 meters) at the hinge line near latitude 35o32'30'N to 2,000 feet (610 meters) at the Cerrillos Road interchange at Interstate 25, north of latitude 35o36'N. The depth analysis indicates that, superimposed on this general synclinal form, there are many local areas where the Santa Fe Group sediments may be thickened by a few hundred feet, presumably due to erosional relief on the underlying Oligocene volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks. Some larger areas of greater apparent thickening occur where the presence of magnetic rocks directly underlying the Santa Fe Group is uncertain. Where magnetic rocks are absent beneath the Santa Fe Group, the thickness cannot be estimated from the aeromagnetic data.

Dispersal and population connectivity in the deep North Atlantic estimated from physical transport processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etter, Ron J.; Bower, Amy S.

2015-10-01

Little is known about how larvae disperse in deep ocean currents despite how critical estimates of population connectivity are for ecology, evolution and conservation. Estimates of connectivity can provide important insights about the mechanisms that shape patterns of genetic variation. Strong population genetic divergence above and below about 3000 m has been documented for multiple protobranch bivalves in the western North Atlantic. One possible explanation for this congruent divergence is that the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), which flows southwestward along the slope in this region, entrains larvae and impedes dispersal between the upper/middle slope and the lower slope or abyss. We used Lagrangian particle trajectories based on an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (specifically FLAME - Family of Linked Atlantic Model Experiments) to estimate the nature and scale of dispersal of passive larvae released near the sea floor at 4 depths across the continental slope (1500, 2000, 2500 and 3200 m) in the western North Atlantic and to test the potential role of the DWBC in explaining patterns of genetic variation on the continental margin. Passive particles released into the model DWBC followed highly complex trajectories that led to both onshore and offshore transport. Transport averaged about 1 km d-1 with dispersal kernels skewed strongly right indicating that some larvae dispersed much greater distances. Offshore transport was more likely than onshore and, despite a prevailing southwestward flow, some particles drifted north and east. Dispersal trajectories and estimates of population connectivity suggested that the DWBC is unlikely to prevent dispersal among depths, in part because of strong cross-slope forces induced by interactions between the DWBC and the deeper flows of the Gulf Stream. The strong genetic divergence we find in this region of the Northwest Atlantic is therefore likely driven by larval behaviors and/or mortality that limit dispersal, or local selective processes (both pre and post-settlement) that limit recruitment of immigrants from some depths.

A Contingent Trip Model for Estimating Rail-trail Demand

Treesearch

Carter J. Betz; John C. Bergstrom; J. Michael Bowker

2003-01-01

The authors develop a contingent trip model to estimate the recreation demand for and value of a potential rail-trail site in north-east Georgia. The contingent trip model is an alternative to travel cost modelling useful for ex ante evaluation of proposed recreation resources or management alternatives. The authors estimate the empirical demand for trips using a...

Comparison of estimated and measured sediment yield in the Gualala River

Treesearch

Matthew O’Connor; Jack Lewis; Robert Pennington

2012-01-01

This study compares quantitative erosion rate estimates developed at different spatial and temporal scales. It is motivated by the need to assess potential water quality impacts of a proposed vineyard development project in the Gualala River watershed. Previous erosion rate estimates were developed using sediment source assessment techniques by the North Coast Regional...

North Carolina, 2011 forest inventory and analysis factsheet

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown; Barry D. New

2013-01-01

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) factsheets are produced periodically to keep the public updated on the extent and condition of forest lands in each State. Estimates in the factsheets are based upon data collected from thousands of sample plots distributed across the landscape in a systematic manner. In North Carolina, this process is a collaborative effort between...

Annual Forest Inventories for the North Central Region of the United States

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark H. Hansen

1999-01-01

The primary objective in developing procedures for annual forest inventories for the north central region of the United States is to establish the capability of producing standard forest inventory and analysis estimates on an annual basis. The inventory system developed to accomplish this objective features several primary functions, including (1) an annual sample of...

North Dakota's forest resources, 2010

Treesearch

D.E. Haugen; R.A. Harsel

2011-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resource attributes for North Dakota based on an annual inventory conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station of the U.S. Forest Service. These estimates, along with web-posted core tables, will be updated annually. For more information, please refer to page 4 of this...

Why is Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead) Invasive in North America and not in its Native Eurasia?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead) is an exotic annual grass introduced to North America in 1887 that has since invaded an estimated four million ha of rangelands. Contrary, in its native ranges of Eurasia, T. caput-medusae is not considered to be invasive. Why is it that T. caput-medusae expre...

Specific gravity and other properties of wood and bark for 156 tree species found in North America

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles

2009-01-01

This paper reports information for the estimation of biomass for 156 tree species found in North America for use in national forest inventory applications. We present specific gravities based on average green volume as well as 12 percent moisture content volume for calculation of oven-dry biomass....

Prediction method of sediment discharge from forested basin

Treesearch

Kazutoki Abe; Ushio Kurokawa; Robert R. Ziemer

2000-01-01

An estimation model for sediment discharge from a forested basin using Universal Soil Loss Equation and delivery ratio was developed. Study basins are North fork and South fork in Caspar Creek, north California, where Forest Service, USDA has been using water and sediment discharge from both basins since 1962. The whole basin is covered with the forest, mainly...

North Dakota's forest resources, 2008

Treesearch

D.E. Haugen; A.J. Lister

2010-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resource attributes for North Dakota based on an annual inventory conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station of the U.S. Forest Service. These estimates, along with web-posted core tables, will be updated annually. For more information, please refer to page 4 of this...

Estimating Impacts on Program-Related Subgroups Using Propensity Score Matching: Evidence from the Early College High School Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unlu, Fatih; Yamaguchi, Ryoko; Bernstein, Larry; Edmunds, Julie

2010-01-01

This paper addresses methodological issues arising from an experimental study of North Carolina's Early College High School Initiative, a four-year longitudinal experimental study funded by Institute for Education Sciences. North Carolina implemented the Early College High School (ECHS) Initiative in response to low high school graduation rates.…

North Dakota's forest resources, 2011

Treesearch

D.E. Haugen; R.A. Harsel

2012-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resource attributes for North Dakota based on an annual inventory conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station of the U.S. Forest Service. These estimates, along with web-posted core tables, will be updated annually. For more information, please refer to page 4 of this...

North Dakota's Forest Resources, 2007

Treesearch

D.E. Haugen; M. Kangas

2008-01-01

This publication provides an overview of forest resource attributes for North Dakota based on an annual inventory conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program at the Northern Research Station of the U.S. Forest Service. These estimates, along with web-posted core tables, will be updated annually. For more information, please refer to page 4 of this...

Effects of canopy herbivory on nutrient cycling in a northern hardwood forest in Western North Carolina

Treesearch

Barbara C. Reynolds; Mark D. Hunter; D.A. Crossely

2000-01-01

In May 1998 an outbreak of sawflies, Periclista sp. (Hymenoptera: Symphyta), occurred in a high-elevation hardwood forest in western North Carolina. Estimated defoliation of northern red oak (Quercus rubra) and white oak (Q. alba) removed 40% of leaf area Weights of frass (insect feces) collected at the site...

Sediment delivery in the North Fork of Caspar Creek

Treesearch

Raymond M. Rice

1996-01-01

Sediment delivery was estimated for 13 tributary watersheds and the North Fork of Caspar Creek. The ratio of sediment to erosion averaged 16.4%, ranging from 1.0% to 89.7%. Because the data were so highly skewed their median is a better indicator of central tendency than their mean. The median delivery ratio was 6.3%

Concentrations, and estimated loads and yields of nutrients and suspended sediment in the Little River basin, Kentucky, 2003-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crain, Angela S.

2006-01-01

Nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus compounds, naturally occur but also are applied to land in the form of commercial fertilizers and livestock waste to enhance plant growth. Concentrations, estimated loads and yields, and sources of nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, and orthophosphate were evaluated in streams of the Little River Basin to assist the Commonwealth of Kentucky in developing 'total maximum daily loads' (TMDLs) for streams in the basin. The Little River Basin encompasses about 600 square miles in Christian and Trigg Counties, and a portion of Caldwell County in western Kentucky. Water samples were collected in streams in the Little River Basin during 2003-04 as part of a study conducted in cooperation with the Kentucky Department of Agriculture. A total of 92 water samples were collected at four fixed-network sites from March through November 2003 and from February through November 2004. An additional 20 samples were collected at five synoptic-network sites during the same period. Median concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment varied spatially and seasonally. Concentrations of nitrogen were higher in the spring (March-May) after fertilizer application and runoff. The highest concentration of nitrite plus nitrate-5.7 milligrams per liter (mg/L)-was detected at the South Fork Little River site. The Sinking Fork near Cadiz site had the highest median concentration of nitrite plus nitrate (4.6 mg/L). The North Fork Little River site and the Little River near Cadiz site had higher concentrations of orthophosphate in the fall and lower concentrations in the spring. Concentrations of orthophosphate remained high during the summer (June-August) at the North Fork Little River site possibly because of the contribution of wastewater effluent to streamflow. Fifty-eight percent of the concentrations of total phosphorus at the nine sites exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended maximum concentration limit of 0.1 mg/L. Concentrations of suspended sediment were highest in the spring during runoff and lowest in the fall. The highest concentration of suspended sediment (1,020 mg/L) was observed at the Sinking Fork near Cadiz site. The median concentration of suspended sediment for all sites sampled was 12 mg/L. A nonparameteric statistical test (Wilcoxson rank-sum) showed that the median concentrations of suspended sediment were not different among any of the fixed-network sites. The Little River near Cadiz site contributed larger estimated mean annual loads of nitrite plus nitrate (2,500,000 pounds per year (lb/yr)) and total phosphorus (160,000 lb/yr) than the other three fixed-network sites. Of the two main upstream tributaries from the Little River near Cadiz site, the North Fork Little River was the greatest contributor of total phosphorus to the study area with an estimated mean annual load of 107,000 lb/yr or about 64 percent of the total estimated mean annual load at the Little River near Cadiz site. The other main upstream tributary, South Fork Little River, had an estimated mean annual load of total phosphorus that was about 20 percent of the mean annual load at the Little River near Cadiz site. Estimated loads of suspended sediment were largest at the Little River near Cadiz site, where the estimated mean annual load for 2003-04 was about 84,000,000 lb/yr. The North Fork Little River contributed an estimated 36 percent of the mean annual load of suspended sediment at the Little River near Cadiz site, while the South Fork Little River contributed an estimated 18 percent of the mean annual load at the Little River near Cadiz site. The North Fork Little River site had the largest estimated mean annual yield of total phosphorus (1,600 pounds per year per square mile (lb/yr/mi2)) and orthophosphate (1,100 lb/yr/mi2). A principal source of phosphorus for the North Fork Little River is discharge from wastewater-treatment facilities. The largest estimated mean annual yield of nitrite plus nitrate was observed at the South Fork Little River site. The North Fork Little River site had the largest estimated mean annual yield of suspended sediment (450,000 lb/yr/mi2). Inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus to streams from point and nonpoint sources were estimated for the Little River Basin. Commercial fertilizer and livestock-waste applications on row crops are a principal source of nutrients for most of the Little River Basin. Sources of nutrients in the urban areas of the basin mainly are from effluent discharge from wastewater-treatment facilities and fertilizer applications to lawns and golf courses.

Air-cushion tankers for Alaskan North Slope oil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, J. L.

1973-01-01

A concept is described for transporting oil from the Arctic to southern markets in 10,000-ton, chemically fueled air-cushion vehicles (ACV's) configured as tankers. Based on preliminary cost estimates the conceptual ACV tanker system as tailored to the transportation of Alaskan North Slope oil could deliver the oil for about the same price per barrel as the proposed trans-Alaska pipeline with only one-third of the capital investment. The report includes the description of the conceptual system and its operation; preliminary cost estimates; an appraisal of ACV tanker development; and a comparison of system costs, versatility, vulnerability, and ecological effect with those of the trans-Alaska pipeline.

Suspended-Sediment Loads and Yields in the North Santiam River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 1999-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bragg, Heather M.; Sobieszczyk, Steven; Uhrich, Mark A.; Piatt, David R.

2007-01-01

The North Santiam River provides drinking water to the residents and businesses of the city of Salem, Oregon, and many surrounding communities. Since 1998, water-quality data, including turbidity, were collected continuously at monitoring stations throughout the basin as part of the North Santiam River Basin Turbidity and Suspended Sediment Study. In addition, sediment samples have been collected over a range of turbidity and streamflow values. Regression models were developed between the instream turbidity and suspended-sediment concentration from the samples collected from each monitoring station. The models were then used to estimate the daily and annual suspended-sediment loads and yields. For water years 1999-2004, suspended-sediment loads and yields were estimated for each station. Annual suspended-sediment loads and yields were highest during water years 1999 and 2000. A drought during water year 2001 resulted in the lowest suspended-sediment loads and yields for all monitoring stations. High-turbidity events that were unrelated or disproportional to increased streamflow occurred at several of the monitoring stations during the period of study. These events highlight the advantage of estimating suspended-sediment loads and yields from instream turbidity rather than from streamflow alone.

Opioid Overdose Deaths and Florida’s Crackdown on Pill Mills

PubMed Central

Richey, Matthew; McGinty, Emma E.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Barry, Colleen L.; Webster, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Objectives. We examined the effect on opioid overdose mortality of Florida state laws and law enforcement operations targeting “pill mills.” Methods. We collected 2003 to 2012 mortality data from the Florida Department of Health and the North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics (the comparison state) to estimate changes in the rates of death from prescription opioid, heroin, or any opioid overdose. Results. Florida’s actions were associated with an estimated 1029 lives saved from prescription opioid overdose over a 34-month period. Estimated reductions in deaths grew over the intervention period, with rates per 100 000 population that were 0.6 lower in 2010, 1.8 lower in 2011, and 3.0 lower in 2012 than what would have been expected had the changes in mortality rate trends in Florida been the same as changes in trends in North Carolina. Florida’s mortality rates from heroin and total opioid overdose were also lower than anticipated relative to changes in trends in North Carolina. Conclusions. Findings from this study indicate that laws regulating pain clinics and enforcement of these laws may, in combination, reduce opioid overdose deaths. PMID:26691121

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Biological data assimilation for parameter estimation of a phytoplankton functional type model for the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoshiba, Yasuhiro; Hirata, Takafumi; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Nakano, Hideyuki; Hashioka, Taketo; Masuda, Yoshio; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

2018-06-01

Ecosystem models are used to understand ecosystem dynamics and ocean biogeochemical cycles and require optimum physiological parameters to best represent biological behaviours. These physiological parameters are often tuned up empirically, while ecosystem models have evolved to increase the number of physiological parameters. We developed a three-dimensional (3-D) lower-trophic-level marine ecosystem model known as the Nitrogen, Silicon and Iron regulated Marine Ecosystem Model (NSI-MEM) and employed biological data assimilation using a micro-genetic algorithm to estimate 23 physiological parameters for two phytoplankton functional types in the western North Pacific. The estimation of the parameters was based on a one-dimensional simulation that referenced satellite data for constraining the physiological parameters. The 3-D NSI-MEM optimized by the data assimilation improved the timing of a modelled plankton bloom in the subarctic and subtropical regions compared to the model without data assimilation. Furthermore, the model was able to improve not only surface concentrations of phytoplankton but also their subsurface maximum concentrations. Our results showed that surface data assimilation of physiological parameters from two contrasting observatory stations benefits the representation of vertical plankton distribution in the western North Pacific.

Congenital Lung Agenesis: Incidence and Outcome in the North of England.

PubMed

Thomas, Matthew; Robertson, Nic; Miller, Nicola; Rankin, Judith; McKean, Michael; Brodlie, Malcom

2017-07-03

Unilateral lung agenesis is an uncommon congenital abnormality, with a lack of reported accurate incidence estimates. Prognosis is also uncertain, with older literature reporting poor outcomes. The North of England register of congenital anomalies (Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey) records cases of congenital anomalies to mothers' resident in the region. We used the register to identify all patients with congenital lung agenesis born between 2004 and 2013 to calculate an accurate incidence estimate and report clinical outcomes with contemporary management. Four patients with congenital lung agenesis were born during the study period, giving an estimated incidence in the North of England of 1.22 per 100,000 live births (95% confidence interval, 0.33-3.11). Two patients had associated congenital heart disease requiring corrective surgery, and one had musculoskeletal anomalies. All four patients are alive and well without a regular oxygen requirement. Contrary to previous reports, the medium term outcomes in our patients have been good, even when lung agenesis is associated with other congenital anomalies. Long-term prognosis with modern management remains unknown, and the potential for the development of pulmonary hypertension remains a concern. Birth Defects Research 109:857-859, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reducing Emergency Department Visits for Acute Gastrointestinal Illnesses in North Carolina (USA) by Extending Community Water Service

PubMed Central

DeFelice, Nicholas B.; Johnston, Jill E.; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2016-01-01

Background: Previous analyses have suggested that unregulated private drinking water wells carry a higher risk of exposure to microbial contamination than regulated community water systems. In North Carolina, ~35% of the state’s population relies on private wells, but the health impact associated with widespread reliance on such unregulated drinking water sources is unknown. Objectives: We estimated the total number of emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) attributable to microbial contamination in private wells in North Carolina per year, the costs of those visits, and the potential health benefits of extending regulated water service to households currently relying on private wells for their drinking water. Methods: We developed a population intervention model using 2007–2013 data from all 122 North Carolina emergency departments along with microbial contamination data for all 2,120 community water systems and for 16,138 private well water samples collected since 2008. Results: An estimated 29,400 (95% CI: 26,600, 32,200) emergency department visits per year for acute gastrointestinal illness were attributable to microbial contamination in drinking water, constituting approximately 7.3% (95% CI: 6.6, 7.9%) of all AGI-related visits. Of these attributable cases, 99% (29,200; 95% CI: 26,500, 31,900) were associated with private well contamination. The estimated statewide annual cost of emergency department visits attributable to microbiological contamination of drinking water is 40.2 million USD (95% CI: 2.58 million USD, 193 million USD), of which 39.9 million USD (95% CI: 2.56 million USD, 192 million USD) is estimated to arise from private well contamination. An estimated 2,920 (95% CI: 2,650, 3,190) annual emergency department visits could be prevented by extending community water service to 10% of the population currently relying on private wells. Conclusions: This research provides new evidence that extending regulated community water service to populations currently relying on private wells may decrease the population burden of acute gastrointestinal illness. Citation: DeFelice NB, Johnston JE, Gibson JM. 2016. Reducing emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illnesses in North Carolina (USA) by extending community water service. Environ Health Perspect 124:1583–1591; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP160 PMID:27203131

Phylogeny and niche conservatism in North and Central American triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), vectors of Chagas' disease.

PubMed

Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro; Peterson, A Townsend; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Ramsey, Janine M

2014-10-01

The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA) triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida) diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex) are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios.

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nustad, Rochelle A.; Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

2016-09-29

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000 square kilometer basin in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the state of North Dakota. Record setting rains in May and June of 2011 led to record flooding with peak annual streamflow values (762 cubic meters per second [m3/s]) more than twice that of any previously recorded peak streamflow and more than five times the estimated 100 year postregulation streamflow (142 m3/s) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station above Minot, North Dakota. Upstream from Minot, N. Dak., the Souris River is regulated by three reservoirs in Saskatchewan (Rafferty, Boundary, and Alameda) and Lake Darling in North Dakota. During the 2011 flood, the city of Minot, N. Dak., experienced devastating damages with more than 4,000 homes flooded and 11,000 evacuated. As a result, the Souris River Basin Task Force recommended the U.S. Geological Survey (in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission) develop a model for estimating the probabilities of future flooding and drought. The model that was developed took on four parts: (1) looking at past climate, (2) predicting future climate, (3) developing a streamflow model in response to certain climatic variables, and (4) combining future climate estimates with the streamflow model to predict future streamflow events. By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends.

Regional US carbon sinks from three-dimensional atmospheric CO2 sampling

PubMed Central

Crevoisier, Cyril; Sweeney, Colm; Gloor, Manuel; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Tans, Pieter P.

2010-01-01

Studies diverge substantially on the actual magnitude of the North American carbon budget. This is due to the lack of appropriate data and also stems from the difficulty to properly model all the details of the flux distribution and transport inside the region of interest. To sidestep these difficulties, we use here a simple budgeting approach to estimate land-atmosphere fluxes across North America by balancing the inflow and outflow of CO2 from the troposphere. We base our study on the unique sampling strategy of atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles over North America from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory aircraft network, from which we infer the three-dimensional CO2 distribution over the continent. We find a moderate sink of 0.5 ± 0.4 PgC y-1 for the period 2004–2006 for the coterminous United States, in good agreement with the forest-inventory-based estimate of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report, and averaged climate conditions. We find that the highest uptake occurs in the Midwest and in the Southeast. This partitioning agrees with independent estimates of crop uptake in the Midwest, which proves to be a significant part of the US atmospheric sink, and of secondary forest regrowth in the Southeast. Provided that vertical profile measurements are continued, our study offers an independent means to link regional carbon uptake to climate drivers. PMID:20937899

Estimation of groundwater and nutrient fluxes to the Neuse River estuary, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spruill, T.B.; Bratton, J.F.

2008-01-01

A study was conducted between April 2004 and September 2005 to estimate groundwater and nutrient discharge to the Neuse River estuary in North Carolina. The largest groundwater fluxes were observed to occur generally within 20 m of the shoreline. Groundwater flux estimates based on seepage meter measurements ranged from 2.86??108 to 4.33??108 m3 annually and are comparable to estimates made using radon, a simple water-budget method, and estimates derived by using Darcy's Law and previously published general aquifer characteristics of the area. The lower groundwater flux estimate (equal to about 9 m3 s-1), which assumed the narrowest groundwater discharge zone (20 m) of three zone widths selected for an area west of New Bern, North Carolina, most closely agrees with groundwater flux estimates made using radon (3-9 m3 s-1) and Darcy's Law (about 9 m3 s-1). A groundwater flux of 9 m 3 s-1 is about 40% of the surface-water flow to the Neuse River estuary between Streets Ferry and the mouth of the estuary and about 7% of the surface-water inflow from areas upstream. Estimates of annual nitrogen (333 tonnes) and phosphorus (66 tonnes) fluxes from groundwater to the estuary, based on this analysis, are less than 6% of the nitrogen and phosphorus inputs derived from all sources (excluding oceanic inputs), and approximately 8% of the nitrogen and 17% of the phosphorus annual inputs from surface-water inflow to the Neuse River estuary assuming a mean annual precipitation of 1.27 m. We provide quantitative evidence, derived from three methods, that the contribution of water and nutrients from groundwater discharge to the Neuse River estuary is relatively minor, particularly compared with upstream sources of water and nutrients and with bottom sediment sources of nutrients. Locally high groundwater discharges do occur, however, and could help explain the occurrence of localized phytoplankton blooms, submerged aquatic vegetation, or fish kills. 

The Map in Our Head Is Not Oriented North: Evidence from a Real-World Environment.

PubMed

Brunyé, Tad T; Burte, Heather; Houck, Lindsay A; Taylor, Holly A

2015-01-01

Like most physical maps, recent research has suggested that cognitive maps of familiar environments may have a north-up orientation. We demonstrate that north orientation is not a necessary feature of cognitive maps and instead may arise due to coincidental alignment between cardinal directions and the built and natural environment. Experiment 1 demonstrated that pedestrians have difficulty pointing north while navigating a familiar real-world environment with roads, buildings, and green spaces oriented oblique to cardinal axes. Instead, north estimates tended to be parallel or perpendicular to roads. In Experiment 2, participants did not demonstrate privileged memory access when oriented toward north while making relative direction judgments. Instead, retrieval was fastest and most accurate when orientations were aligned with roads. In sum, cognitive maps are not always oriented north. Rather, in some real-world environments they can be oriented with respect to environment-specific features, serving as convenient reference systems for organizing and using spatial memory.

Ocean-shelf interaction and exchange (Fridtjof Nansen Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huthnance, John M.

2016-04-01

A brief review will be given of physical processes where shallow shelf seas border the deep ocean, including waves that travel and propagate responses around the ocean boundary. Some implications for ocean-shelf exchange of water and its physical and biochemical contents will be discussed, along with an outline of some studies estimating these exchanges. There will be an emphasis on the north-west European shelf edge. A recent study is the project FASTNEt: "Fluxes across sloping topography of the North East Atlantic". This aims to resolve seasonal, interannual and regional variations. Novel and varied measurements have been made in three contrasting sectors of shelf edge: the Celtic Sea south-west of Britain, the Malin-Hebrides shelf west of Scotland and the West Shetland shelf north of Scotland. Previous studies established the existence of flow along the continental slope in these areas, more persistently poleward in northern sectors. Modelling aims to diagnose and estimate the contribution of various processes to transports and to exchange along and across the slope. Estimates obtained so far will be presented; overall transport from drifters and moored current meters; effective "diffusivity" from drifter dispersion and salinity surveys; other estimates of velocity variance contributing to exchange. In addition to transport by the along-slope flow, possible process contributions which may be estimated include internal waves and their Stokes drift, tidal pumping, eddies and Ekman transports, in a wind-driven surface layer and in a bottom boundary layer. Overall estimates of exchange across the shelf edge here are large by global standards, several m**2/s (Sverdrups per 1000 km). However, the large majority of this exchange is in tides and other motion of comparably short period, and is only effective for water properties or contents that evolve on a time-scale of a day or less.

Estimating the Value of Life, Injury, and Travel Time Saved Using a Stated Preference Framework.

PubMed

Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

2016-06-01

The incidence of fatality over the period 2010-2014 from automobile accidents in North Cyprus is 2.75 times greater than the average for the EU. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments will need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. The objective of this study is to provide local estimates of the value of a statistical life and injury along with the value of time savings. These are among the parameter values needed for the evaluation of the change in the expected incidence of automotive accidents and time savings brought about by such projects. In this study we conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of automobile drivers in North Cyprus for improved travel times, travel costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers choose. These estimates were used to assess the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid fatalities and injuries and to save travel time. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of travel time saved. The estimates for the VSL range from €315,293 to €1,117,856 and the estimates of VI from € 5,603 to € 28,186. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

1997-01-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Integrated Fossil and Molecular Data Reveal the Biogeographic Diversification of the Eastern Asian-Eastern North American Disjunct Hickory Genus (Carya Nutt.)

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jing-Bo; Li, Rui-Qi; Xiang, Xiao-Guo; Manchester, Steven R.; Lin, Li; Wang, Wei; Wen, Jun; Chen, Zhi-Duan

2013-01-01

The hickory genus (Carya) contains ca. 17 species distributed in subtropical and tropical regions of eastern Asia and subtropical to temperate regions of eastern North America. Previously, the phylogenetic relationships between eastern Asian and eastern North American species of Carya were not fully confirmed even with an extensive sampling, biogeographic and diversification patterns had thus never been investigated in a phylogenetic context. We sampled 17 species of Carya and 15 species representing all other genera of the Juglandaceae as outgroups, with eight nuclear and plastid loci to reconstruct the phylogeny of Carya. The phylogenetic positions of seven extinct genera of the Juglandaceae were inferred using morphological characters and the molecular phylogeny as a backbone constraint. Divergence times within Carya were estimated with relaxed Bayesian dating. Biogeographic analyses were performed in DIVA and LAGRANGE. Diversification rates were inferred by LASER and APE packages. Our results support two major clades within Carya, corresponding to the lineages of eastern Asia and eastern North America. The split between the two disjunct clades is estimated to be 21.58 (95% HPD 11.07-35.51) Ma. Genus-level DIVA and LAGRANGE analyses incorporating both extant and extinct genera of the Juglandaceae suggested that Carya originated in North America, and migrated to Eurasia during the early Tertiary via the North Atlantic land bridge. Fragmentation of the distribution caused by global cooling in the late Tertiary resulted in the current disjunction. The diversification rate of hickories in eastern North America appeared to be higher than that in eastern Asia, which is ascribed to greater ecological opportunities, key morphological innovations, and polyploidy. PMID:23875028

Integrated fossil and molecular data reveal the biogeographic diversification of the eastern Asian-eastern North American disjunct hickory genus (Carya Nutt.).

PubMed

Zhang, Jing-Bo; Li, Rui-Qi; Xiang, Xiao-Guo; Manchester, Steven R; Lin, Li; Wang, Wei; Wen, Jun; Chen, Zhi-Duan

2013-01-01

The hickory genus (Carya) contains ca. 17 species distributed in subtropical and tropical regions of eastern Asia and subtropical to temperate regions of eastern North America. Previously, the phylogenetic relationships between eastern Asian and eastern North American species of Carya were not fully confirmed even with an extensive sampling, biogeographic and diversification patterns had thus never been investigated in a phylogenetic context. We sampled 17 species of Carya and 15 species representing all other genera of the Juglandaceae as outgroups, with eight nuclear and plastid loci to reconstruct the phylogeny of Carya. The phylogenetic positions of seven extinct genera of the Juglandaceae were inferred using morphological characters and the molecular phylogeny as a backbone constraint. Divergence times within Carya were estimated with relaxed Bayesian dating. Biogeographic analyses were performed in DIVA and LAGRANGE. Diversification rates were inferred by LASER and APE packages. Our results support two major clades within Carya, corresponding to the lineages of eastern Asia and eastern North America. The split between the two disjunct clades is estimated to be 21.58 (95% HPD 11.07-35.51) Ma. Genus-level DIVA and LAGRANGE analyses incorporating both extant and extinct genera of the Juglandaceae suggested that Carya originated in North America, and migrated to Eurasia during the early Tertiary via the North Atlantic land bridge. Fragmentation of the distribution caused by global cooling in the late Tertiary resulted in the current disjunction. The diversification rate of hickories in eastern North America appeared to be higher than that in eastern Asia, which is ascribed to greater ecological opportunities, key morphological innovations, and polyploidy.

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

2000-10-01

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Analysis of top-down and bottom-up North American CO2 and CH4 emissions estimates in the second State of the Carbon Cycle Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. B.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bruhwiler, L.; Michalak, A.; Hayes, D. J.; Vargas, R.

2017-12-01

In just ten years since publication of the original State of the Carbon Cycle Report in 2007, global CO2 concentrations have risen by more than 22 ppm to 405 ppm. This represents 18% of the increase over preindustrial levels of 280 ppm. This increase is being driven unequivocally by fossil fuel combustion with North American emissions comprising roughly 20% of the global total over the past decade. At the global scale, we know by comparing well-known fossil fuel inventories and rates of atmospheric CO2 increase that about half of all emissions are absorbed at Earth's surface. For North America, however, we can not apply a simple mass balance to determine sources and sinks. Instead, contributions from ecosystems must be estimated using top-down and bottom-up methods. SOCCR-2 estimates North American net CO2 uptake from ecosystems using bottom-up (inventory) methods as 577 +/- 433 TgC/yr and 634 +/- 288 TgC/yr from top-down atmospheric inversions. Although the global terrestrial carbon sink is not precisely known, these values represent possibly 30% of the global values. As with net sink estimates reported in SOCCR, these new top-down and bottom-up estimates are statistically consistent with one another. However, the uncertainties on each of these estimates are now substantially smaller, giving us more confidence about where the truth lies. Atmospheric inversions also yield estimates of interannual variations (IAV) in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Our syntheses suggest that IAV of ecosystem CO2 fluxes is of order 100 TgC/yr, mainly originating in the conterminous US, with lower variability in boreal and arctic regions. Moreover, this variability is much larger than for inventory-based fluxes reported by the US to the UNFCCC. Unlike CO2, bottom-up CH4 emissions are larger than those derived from large-scale atmospheric data, with the continental discrepancy resulting primarily from differences in arctic and boreal regions. In addition to the current state of the science, we will also discuss the primary sources of uncertainty and how existing and emerging measurement and modeling technologies can address them.

Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

1988-01-01

It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability.

PubMed

Shi, W; Schaller, N; MacLeod, D; Palmer, T N; Weisheimer, A

2015-03-16

It has recently been argued that single-model seasonal forecast ensembles are overdispersive, implying that the real world is more predictable than indicated by estimates of so-called perfect model predictability, particularly over the North Atlantic. However, such estimates are based on relatively short forecast data sets comprising just 20 years of seasonal predictions. Here we study longer 40 year seasonal forecast data sets from multimodel seasonal forecast ensemble projects and show that sampling uncertainty due to the length of the hindcast periods is large. The skill of forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter varies within the 40 year data sets with high levels of skill found for some subperiods. It is demonstrated that while 20 year estimates of seasonal reliability can show evidence of overdispersive behavior, the 40 year estimates are more stable and show no evidence of overdispersion. Instead, the predominant feature on these longer time scales is underdispersion, particularly in the tropics. Predictions can appear overdispersive due to hindcast length sampling errorLonger hindcasts are more robust and underdispersive, especially in the tropicsTwenty hindcasts are an inadequate sample size to assess seasonal forecast skill.

The mantle flow field beneath western North America.

PubMed

Silver, P G; Holt, W E

2002-02-08

Although motions at the surface of tectonic plates are well determined, the accompanying horizontal mantle flow is not. We have combined observations of surface deformation and upper mantle seismic anisotropy to estimate this flow field for western North America. We find that the mantle velocity is 5.5 +/- 1.5 centimeters per year due east in a hot spot reference frame, nearly opposite to the direction of North American plate motion (west-southwest). The flow is only weakly coupled to the motion of the surface plate, producing a small drag force. This flow field is probably due to heterogeneity in mantle density associated with the former Farallon oceanic plate beneath North America.

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

1994-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

Using an electronic compass to determine telemetry azimuths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, R.R.; Scalf, J.D.; Jamison, B.E.; Lutz, R.S.

2002-01-01

Researchers typically collect azimuths from known locations to estimate locations of radiomarked animals. Mobile, vehicle-mounted telemetry receiving systems frequently are used to gather azimuth data. Use of mobile systems typically involves estimating the vehicle's orientation to grid north (vehicle azimuth), recording an azimuth to the transmitter relative to the vehicle azimuth from a fixed rosette around the antenna mast (relative azimuth), and subsequently calculating an azimuth to the transmitter (animal azimuth). We incorporated electronic compasses into standard null-peak antenna systems by mounting the compass sensors atop the antenna masts and evaluated the precision of this configuration. This system increased efficiency by eliminating vehicle orientation and calculations to determine animal azimuths and produced estimates of precision (azimuth SD=2.6 deg., SE=0.16 deg.) similar to systems that required orienting the mobile system to grid north. Using an electronic compass increased efficiency without sacrificing precision and should produce more accurate estimates of locations when marked animals are moving or when vehicle orientation is problematic.

Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency : of floods are essential for the design of transportation and : water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and : flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly : important in dens...

Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

PubMed

Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

2017-11-01

To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

Behavior, passage, and downstream migration of juvenile Chinook salmon from Detroit Reservoir to Portland, Oregon, 2014–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kock, Tobias J.; Beeman, John W.; Hansen, Amy C.; Hansel, Hal C.; Hansen, Gabriel S.; Hatton, Tyson W.; Kofoot, Eric E.; Sholtis, Matthew D.; Sprando, Jamie M.

2015-11-16

A Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model was developed to provide reach-specific survival estimates for juvenile Chinook salmon. A portion of the tagged population overwintered in the Willamette River Basin and outmigrated several months after release. As a result, survival estimates from the model would have been negatively biased by factors such as acoustic tag failure and tag loss. Data from laboratory studies were incorporated into the model to provide survival estimates that accounted for these factors. In the North Santiam River between Minto Dam and the Bennett Dam complex, a distance of 37.2 kilometers, survival was estimated to be 0.844 (95-percent confidence interval 0.795–0.893). The survival estimate for the 203.7 kilometer reach between the Bennett Dam complex and Portland, Oregon, was 0.279 (95-percent confidence interval 0.234–0.324), and included portions of the North Santiam, Santiam, and Willamette Rivers. The cumulative survival estimate in the 240.9 kilometer reach from the Minto Dam tailrace to Portland was 0.236 (95-percent confidence interval 0.197–0.275).

Observed mean sea level changes around the North Sea coastline from 1800 to present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Woodworth, P. L.; Albrecht, F.; Dillingh, D.; Jensen, J.; Nicholls, R. J.; Weisse, R.; Wöppelmann, G.

2013-09-01

This paper assesses historic changes in mean sea level around the coastline of the North Sea, one of the most densely populated coasts in the world. Typically, such analyses have been conducted at a national level, and detailed geographically wider analyses have not been undertaken for about 20 years. We analyse long records (up to 200 years) from 30 tide gauge sites, which are reasonably uniformly distributed along the coastline, and: (1) calculate relative sea level trends; (2) examine the inter-annual and decadal variations; (3) estimate regional geocentric (sometimes also referred to as 'absolute') sea level rise throughout the 20th century; and (4) assess the evidence for regional acceleration of sea-level rise. Relative sea level changes are broadly consistent with known vertical land movement patterns. The inter-annual and decadal variability is partly coherent across the region, but with some differences between the Inner North Sea and the English Channel. Data sets from various sources are used to provide estimates of the geocentric sea level changes. The long-term geocentric mean sea level trend for the 1900 to 2011 period is estimated to be 1.5 ± 0.1 mm/yr for the entire North Sea region. The trend is slightly higher for the Inner North Sea (i.e. 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr), and smaller but not significantly different on the 95% confidence level for the English Channel (i.e. 1.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr). The uncertainties in the estimates of vertical land movement rates are still large, and the results from a broad range of approaches for determining these rates are not consistent. Periods of sea level rise acceleration are detected at different times throughout the last 200 years and are to some extent related to air pressure variations. The recent rates of sea level rise (i.e. over the last two to three decades) are high compared to the long-term average, but are comparable to those which have been observed at other times in the late 19th and 20th century.

Expansion of Economic Base Analysis: Labor Availability in North-Central New Mexico. Research Report No. 264.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carruthers, Garrey E.; And Others

Estimates of the number of persons willing to commute, at alternative wage rates, to job opportunities in north-central New Mexico have been based on results of basic research in the region and 1970 census data. Expressed willingness to commute and socio-economic characteristics data were accumulated from a regional survey of 643 households. The…

Progress toward developing field protocols for a North American marsh bird monitoring program

Treesearch

Courtney J. Conway; Steven T. A. Timmermans

2005-01-01

Populations of many marsh-dependent birds appear to be declining, but we currently lack a continental program that provides estimates of population trends for most secretive marshbirds. The survey protocol outlined here is a standardized survey methodology being used on a pilot basis at National Wildlife Refuges and other protected wetland areas across North America...

North Dakota's forest resources in 2005

Treesearch

David E. Haugen; Gary J. Brand; Michael Kangas

2006-01-01

This report completes the first 5 years of the annual forest inventory in North Dakota and presents estimates of forest area, volume, and biomass for 2005. It is part of the national effort of annual forest inventory authorized by the 1998 Farm Bill. Sine the third forest inventory, in 1994, total forest land area has increased by 51,000 acres. Private forest land...

Genetic analysis of emerald ash borer (Agrilus Planipennis Fairmaire) to determine point of origin in North American infestations

Treesearch

Jim Smith; Bob Haack; Leah Bauer

2004-01-01

The objective of this project is to estimate the geographic origin of emerald ash borer (EAB) populations in Asia that gave rise to EAB in North America. Knowledge of EAB genetics will be useful in understanding the invasion dynamics of the beetle, and to help identify geographic localities of potential biocontrol agents.

Fluvial terraces of the Little River Valley, Atlantic Coastal Plain, North Carolina

Treesearch

Bradley Suther; David Leigh; George Brook

2011-01-01

An optically-stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon chronology is presented for fluvial terraces of the Little River, a tributary to the Cape Fear River that drains 880 km2 of the Sandhills Province of the upper Coastal Plain of North Carolina. This study differs from previous work in the southeastern Atlantic Coastal Plain in that numerical age estimates are...

North American oriented strand board markets, arbitrage activity, and market price dynamics: A smooth transition approach

Treesearch

Barry Goodwin; Matthew Holt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

2011-01-01

Price dynamics for North American oriented strand board markets are examined. The role of transactions costs are explored vis-à-vis the law of one price. Nonlinearities induced by unobservable transactions costs are modeled by estimating time-varying smooth transition autoregressions (TV-STARs). Results indicate that nonlinearity and structural change are important...

The influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the atmosphere in the cold season at seasonal to multidecadal time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankignoul, C.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence of an atmospheric response to the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomalies has been accumulating since the late 90's, suggesting that it drives a negative NAO response during late fall/early winter. The North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly is in part stochastically driven by the atmosphere, but at low frequency it is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Correspondingly, an atmospheric response to the AMO has been detected at low frequency in winter, with a positive AMO phase leading a negative NAO-like pattern, consistent with sensitivity studies with atmospheric general circulation models. Both the subpolar and tropical components of the AMO seem to contribute to its influence on the atmosphere. As North Atlantic SST changes reflects internally-generated SST fluctuations as well the response to anthropogenic and other external forcing, the AMO is sensitive to the way the forced SST signal is removed; estimates of the natural variability of the AMO vary by as much as a factor of two between estimation methods, leading to possible biases in its alleged impacts. Since an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) leads the AMO and drives a negative NAO in many climate models, albeit with different lead times, the relation between AMO and AMOC will be discussed, as well as possible links with the North Pacific and sea ice variability.

Simulated wind-generated inertial oscillations compared to current measurements in the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruserud, Kjersti; Haver, Sverre; Myrhaug, Dag

2018-06-01

Measured current speed data show that episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations dominate the current conditions in parts of the northern North Sea. In order to acquire current data of sufficient duration for robust estimation of joint metocean design conditions, such as wind, waves, and currents, a simple model for episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations is adapted for the northern North Sea. The model is validated with and compared against measured current data at one location in the northern North Sea and found to reproduce the measured maximum current speed in each episode with considerable accuracy. The comparison is further improved when a small general background current is added to the simulated maximum current speeds. Extreme values of measured and simulated current speed are estimated and found to compare well. To assess the robustness of the model and the sensitivity of current conditions from location to location, the validated model is applied at three other locations in the northern North Sea. In general, the simulated maximum current speeds are smaller than the measured, suggesting that wind-generated inertial oscillations are not as prominent at these locations and that other current conditions may be governing. Further analysis of the simulated current speed and joint distribution of wind, waves, and currents for design of offshore structures will be presented in a separate paper.

Simulated wind-generated inertial oscillations compared to current measurements in the northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruserud, Kjersti; Haver, Sverre; Myrhaug, Dag

2018-04-01

Measured current speed data show that episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations dominate the current conditions in parts of the northern North Sea. In order to acquire current data of sufficient duration for robust estimation of joint metocean design conditions, such as wind, waves, and currents, a simple model for episodes of wind-generated inertial oscillations is adapted for the northern North Sea. The model is validated with and compared against measured current data at one location in the northern North Sea and found to reproduce the measured maximum current speed in each episode with considerable accuracy. The comparison is further improved when a small general background current is added to the simulated maximum current speeds. Extreme values of measured and simulated current speed are estimated and found to compare well. To assess the robustness of the model and the sensitivity of current conditions from location to location, the validated model is applied at three other locations in the northern North Sea. In general, the simulated maximum current speeds are smaller than the measured, suggesting that wind-generated inertial oscillations are not as prominent at these locations and that other current conditions may be governing. Further analysis of the simulated current speed and joint distribution of wind, waves, and currents for design of offshore structures will be presented in a separate paper.

Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

2012-01-01

Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

C:n:p Stoichiometry of New Production In The North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koeve, W.

Recently and independently published estimates of global net community production which were based on seasonal changes of either nutrients (NO3 and PO4) or dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the surface ocean indicate that the stoichiometry of new pro- duction strongly differs from the well established remineralisation ratios in the deep ocean (the Redfield ratio). This difference appears to be most pronounce in the North Atlantic ocean. Data quality issues as well as methodological differences in the data analysis applied in the published studies, however, make this comparison of nutri- ent and carbon based estimated ambigious. In this presentation historical data (World Ocean Atlas and Data 1998), data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and empirical approaches are combined in a consistent way to provide a reassessment of the C:N:P elemental ratio of new (export) production in the North Atlantic. It is found that published nutrient budgets are severe underestimates and hence apparent C:N:P ratios were overestimated. At least in the North Atlantic the uncertainty of the winter time distribution of nutrients (and DIC) is a major source of the uncertainty of the C:N:P ratio of net community production.

First North American fossil monkey and early Miocene tropical biotic interchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloch, Jonathan I.; Woodruff, Emily D.; Wood, Aaron R.; Rincon, Aldo F.; Harrington, Arianna R.; Morgan, Gary S.; Foster, David A.; Montes, Camilo; Jaramillo, Carlos A.; Jud, Nathan A.; Jones, Douglas S.; MacFadden, Bruce J.

2016-05-01

New World monkeys (platyrrhines) are a diverse part of modern tropical ecosystems in North and South America, yet their early evolutionary history in the tropics is largely unknown. Molecular divergence estimates suggest that primates arrived in tropical Central America, the southern-most extent of the North American landmass, with several dispersals from South America starting with the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama 3-4 million years ago (Ma). The complete absence of primate fossils from Central America has, however, limited our understanding of their history in the New World. Here we present the first description of a fossil monkey recovered from the North American landmass, the oldest known crown platyrrhine, from a precisely dated 20.9-Ma layer in the Las Cascadas Formation in the Panama Canal Basin, Panama. This discovery suggests that family-level diversification of extant New World monkeys occurred in the tropics, with new divergence estimates for Cebidae between 22 and 25 Ma, and provides the oldest fossil evidence for mammalian interchange between South and North America. The timing is consistent with recent tectonic reconstructions of a relatively narrow Central American Seaway in the early Miocene epoch, coincident with over-water dispersals inferred for many other groups of animals and plants. Discovery of an early Miocene primate in Panama provides evidence for a circum-Caribbean tropical distribution of New World monkeys by this time, with ocean barriers not wholly restricting their northward movements, requiring a complex set of ecological factors to explain their absence in well-sampled similarly aged localities at higher latitudes of North America.

First North American fossil monkey and early Miocene tropical biotic interchange.

PubMed

Bloch, Jonathan I; Woodruff, Emily D; Wood, Aaron R; Rincon, Aldo F; Harrington, Arianna R; Morgan, Gary S; Foster, David A; Montes, Camilo; Jaramillo, Carlos A; Jud, Nathan A; Jones, Douglas S; MacFadden, Bruce J

2016-05-12

New World monkeys (platyrrhines) are a diverse part of modern tropical ecosystems in North and South America, yet their early evolutionary history in the tropics is largely unknown. Molecular divergence estimates suggest that primates arrived in tropical Central America, the southern-most extent of the North American landmass, with several dispersals from South America starting with the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama 3-4 million years ago (Ma). The complete absence of primate fossils from Central America has, however, limited our understanding of their history in the New World. Here we present the first description of a fossil monkey recovered from the North American landmass, the oldest known crown platyrrhine, from a precisely dated 20.9-Ma layer in the Las Cascadas Formation in the Panama Canal Basin, Panama. This discovery suggests that family-level diversification of extant New World monkeys occurred in the tropics, with new divergence estimates for Cebidae between 22 and 25 Ma, and provides the oldest fossil evidence for mammalian interchange between South and North America. The timing is consistent with recent tectonic reconstructions of a relatively narrow Central American Seaway in the early Miocene epoch, coincident with over-water dispersals inferred for many other groups of animals and plants. Discovery of an early Miocene primate in Panama provides evidence for a circum-Caribbean tropical distribution of New World monkeys by this time, with ocean barriers not wholly restricting their northward movements, requiring a complex set of ecological factors to explain their absence in well-sampled similarly aged localities at higher latitudes of North America.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A QUANTITATIVE APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING EXPOSURE TO PESTICIDES IN THE AGRICULTURAL HEALTH STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a quantitative method to estimate chemical-specific pesticide exposures in a large prospective cohort study of over 58,000 pesticide applicators in North Carolina and Iowa. An enrollment questionnaire was administered to applicators to collect basic time- and inten...

Impact of the North Atlantic circulation on the climate change patterns of North Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan, Nikesh; Mathis, Mortiz; Klein, Birgit; Klein, Holger; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

The physical properties of the North Sea are characterized by the exchange of water masses with the North Atlantic at the northern boundary and Baltic Sea to the east. The combined effects of localized forcing, tidal mixing and advection of water masses make the North Sea a challenging study area. Previous investigations indicated a possibility that the variability of the North Atlantic circulation and the strength of the sub-polar gyre (SPG) might influence the physical properties of the North Sea. The assessment of the complex interaction between the North Atlantic and the North Sea in a climate change scenario requires regionally coupled global RCP simulations with enhanced resolution of the North Sea and the North Atlantic. In this study we analyzed result from the regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere-biogeochemistry model system (MPIOM-REMO-HAMOCC) with a hydrodynamic (HD) model. The ocean model has a zoomed grid which provides the highest resolution over the West European Shelf by shifting its poles over Chicago and Central Europe. An index for the intensity of SPG was estimated by averaging the barotropic stream function (ψ) over the North Atlantic. Various threshold values for ψ were tested to define the strength of the SPG. These SPG indices have been correlated with North Sea hydrographic parameters at various levels to identify areas affected by SPG variability. The influence of the Atlantic's eastern boundary current, contributing more saline waters to the North West European shelf area is also investigated.

Estimating the value of life and injury for pedestrians using a stated preference framework.

PubMed

Niroomand, Naghmeh; Jenkins, Glenn P

2017-09-01

The incidence of pedestrian death over the period 2010 to 2014 per 1000,000 in North Cyprus is about 2.5 times that of the EU, with 10.5 times more pedestrian road injuries than deaths. With the prospect of North Cyprus entering the EU, many investments need to be undertaken to improve road safety in order to reach EU benchmarks. We conducted a stated choice experiment to identify the preferences and tradeoffs of pedestrians in North Cyprus for improved walking times, pedestrian costs, and safety. The choice of route was examined using mixed logit models to obtain the marginal utilities associated with each attribute of the routes that consumers chose. These were used to estimate the individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) to save walking time and to avoid pedestrian fatalities and injuries. We then used the results to obtain community-wide estimates of the value of a statistical life (VSL) saved, the value of an injury (VI) prevented, and the value per hour of walking time saved. The estimate of the VSL was €699,434 and the estimate of VI was €20,077. These values are consistent, after adjusting for differences in incomes, with the median results of similar studies done for EU countries. The estimated value of time to pedestrians is €7.20 per person hour. The ratio of deaths to injuries is much higher for pedestrians than for road accidents, and this is completely consistent with the higher estimated WTP to avoid a pedestrian accident than to avoid a car accident. The value of time of €7.20 is quite high relative to the wages earned. Findings provide a set of information on the VRR for fatalities and injuries and the value of pedestrian time that is critical for conducing ex ante appraisals of investments to improve pedestrian safety. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upper plate contraction north of the migrating Mendocino triple junction northern California: Implications for partitioning of strain

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrory, P.A.

2000-01-01

Geologic measurement of permanent contraction across the Cascadia subduction margin constrains one component of the tectonic deformation along the convergent plate boundary, the component critical for the seismic hazard assessment of crustal faults. A comprehensive survey of active faults in onshore subduction margin rocks at the southern end of the Cascadia subduction zone indicates that these thrust faults accommodate ??10 mm/yr of convergence oriented 020??-045??. Seismotectonic models of subduction zones typically assign this upper plate strain to the estimate of aseismic slip on the megathrust. Geodetic models include this permanent crustal strain within estimates of elastic strain accumulation on the megathrust. Both types of models underestimate the seismic hazard associated with crustal faults. Subtracting the observed contraction from the plate convergence rate (40-50 mm/yr; directed 040??-055??) leaves 30-40 mm/yr of convergence to be partitioned between slip on the megathrust, contraction within the southern Juan de Fuca plate, and crustal contraction outside the subduction complex rocks. This simple estimate of slip partitioning neglects the discrepancy between the plate convergence and contraction directions in the vicinity of the Mendocino triple junction. The San Andreas and Cascadia limbs of the Mendocino triple junction are not collinear. The eastern edge of the broad San Andreas boundary is ??85 km east of the Cascadia subduction boundary, and across this zone the Pacific plate converges directly with the North America plate. The skewed orientation of crustal structures just north of the leading edge of the Pacific plate suggests that they are deforming in a hybrid stress field resulting from both Juan de Fuca-North America motion and Pacific-North America motion. The composite convergence direction (50 mm/yr: directed 023??) is consistent with the compressive stress axis (020??) inferred from focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes in the Humboldt region. Deformation in such a hybrid stress field implies that the crustal faults are being loaded from two major tectonic sources. The slip on crustal faults north of the Mendocino triple junction may consume 4-5 mm/yr of Pacific-Humboldt convergence. The remaining 17-18 mm/yr of convergence may be consumed as distributed shortening expressed in the high rates of uplift in the Cape Mendocino region or as northward translation of the continental margin, north of the triple junction.

Toxocariasis in North America: a systematic review.

PubMed

Lee, Rachel M; Moore, Laura B; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

2014-08-01

Toxocariasis is an important neglected tropical disease that can manifest as visceral or ocular larva migrans, or covert toxocariasis. All three forms pose a public health problem and cause significant morbidity in areas of high prevalence. To determine the burden of toxocariasis in North America, we conducted a systematic review of the literature following PRISMA guidelines. We found 18 articles with original prevalence, incidence, or case data for toxocariasis. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% in a Canadian Inuit community to 30.8% in Mexican children with asthma. Commonly cited risk factors included: African-American race, poverty, male sex, and pet ownership or environmental contamination by animal feces. Increased prevalence of Toxocara spp. infection was linked in a group of case control studies conducted in Mexico to several high risk groups including waste pickers, asthmatic children, and inpatient psychiatry patients. Further research is needed to determine the true current burden of toxocariasis in North America; however the prevalence estimates gathered in this review suggest that the burden of disease is significant.

Toxocariasis in North America: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Toxocariasis is an important neglected tropical disease that can manifest as visceral or ocular larva migrans, or covert toxocariasis. All three forms pose a public health problem and cause significant morbidity in areas of high prevalence. To determine the burden of toxocariasis in North America, we conducted a systematic review of the literature following PRISMA guidelines. We found 18 articles with original prevalence, incidence, or case data for toxocariasis. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% in a Canadian Inuit community to 30.8% in Mexican children with asthma. Commonly cited risk factors included: African-American race, poverty, male sex, and pet ownership or environmental contamination by animal feces. Increased prevalence of Toxocara spp. infection was linked in a group of case control studies conducted in Mexico to several high risk groups including waste pickers, asthmatic children, and inpatient psychiatry patients. Further research is needed to determine the true current burden of toxocariasis in North America; however the prevalence estimates gathered in this review suggest that the burden of disease is significant. PMID:25166906

Recent increases in Arctic freshwater flux affects Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning circulation

PubMed Central

Yang, Qian; Dixon, Timothy H.; Myers, Paul G.; Bonin, Jennifer; Chambers, Don; van den Broeke, M. R.; Ribergaard, Mads H.; Mortensen, John

2016-01-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of ocean thermohaline circulation. Melting of Greenland's ice sheet is freshening the North Atlantic; however, whether the augmented freshwater flux is disrupting the AMOC is unclear. Dense Labrador Sea Water (LSW), formed by winter cooling of saline North Atlantic water and subsequent convection, is a key component of the deep southward return flow of the AMOC. Although LSW formation recently decreased, it also reached historically high values in the mid-1990s, making the connection to the freshwater flux unclear. Here we derive a new estimate of the recent freshwater flux from Greenland using updated GRACE satellite data, present new flux estimates for heat and salt from the North Atlantic into the Labrador Sea and explain recent variations in LSW formation. We suggest that changes in LSW can be directly linked to recent freshening, and suggest a possible link to AMOC weakening. PMID:26796579

Estimated water use, by county, in North Carolina, 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terziotti, Silvia; Schrader, Tony P.; Treece, M.W.

1994-01-01

Data on water use in North Carolina were compiled for 1990 as part of a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Division of Water Resources of the North Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources. Data were compiled from a number of Federal, State, and private sources for the offstream water-use categories of public supply, domestic, commercial, industrial, mining, livestock, irrigation, and thermoelectric-power generation. Data also were collected for instream use from hydroelectric facilities. Total estimated offstream water use in the State for 1990 was about 8,940 million gallons per day. About 95 percent of the water withdrawn was from surface-water sources. Thermoelectric-power generation accounted for about 81 percent of all withdrawals. Data for instream water use for hydroelectric-power generation also were compiled. This instream water use totaled about 66,900 million gallons per day. eAch water-use category is summarized in this report by county and source of water supply.

Seasonal copepod lipid pump promotes carbon sequestration in the deep North Atlantic

PubMed Central

Jónasdóttir, Sigrún Huld; Visser, André W.; Richardson, Katherine; Heath, Michael R.

2015-01-01

Estimates of carbon flux to the deep oceans are essential for our understanding of global carbon budgets. Sinking of detrital material (“biological pump”) is usually thought to be the main biological component of this flux. Here, we identify an additional biological mechanism, the seasonal “lipid pump,” which is highly efficient at sequestering carbon into the deep ocean. It involves the vertical transport and metabolism of carbon rich lipids by overwintering zooplankton. We show that one species, the copepod Calanus finmarchicus overwintering in the North Atlantic, sequesters an amount of carbon equivalent to the sinking flux of detrital material. The efficiency of the lipid pump derives from a near-complete decoupling between nutrient and carbon cycling—a “lipid shunt,” and its direct transport of carbon through the mesopelagic zone to below the permanent thermocline with very little attenuation. Inclusion of the lipid pump almost doubles the previous estimates of deep-ocean carbon sequestration by biological processes in the North Atlantic. PMID:26338976

Prevalence of cleft lip and cleft palate in rural north-central guatemala.

PubMed

Matute, Jorge; Lydick, Elaine A; Torres, Olga R; Owen, Karen K; Jacobsen, Kathryn H

2015-05-01

To estimate the number of new cases of cleft lip and cleft palate in the department (state) of Alta Verapaz, Guatemala, in 2012. Cross-sectional survey of midwives from communities identified through a two-stage cluster-sampling process. Midwives were asked how many babies they had delivered in the past year and how many of those newborns had various types of birth defects, as illustrated in pictures. Indigenous Mayan communities in rural north-central Guatemala. Midwives (n = 129) who had delivered babies in the previous year. Reports of babies born with cleft lip and cleft palate. A 1-year prevalence rate of 18.9 per 10,000 for cleft lip and 4.7 per 10,000 for cleft palate was estimated for Alta Verapaz. None of the cases of cleft lip also had cleft palate. The indigenous communities in north-central Guatemala might have a relatively high cleft lip prevalence rate compared with the global average.

High risk of tsunami in the northern Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grindlay, Nancy R.; Hearne, Meghan; Mann, Paul

The magnitude Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 claimed the lives of an estimated 300,000 people living in coastal areas of seven different countries around the Indian Ocean. This event raised the question of whether similar far-traveled tsunamis generated by plate boundary faulting could affect the estimated 150 million people living in coastal areas of the United States, including Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.Aside from the Pacific plate margin of North America, the North America-Caribbean plate boundary is the closest (˜2000 km) active plate boundary to coastal areas in the Gulf of Mexico and the U.S. Atlantic seaboard. Researchers also have proposed that other possible tsunami-generating sources that could affect coastal areas of the United States include slumping of the shelf margin along the Virginia-North Carolina margin [Driscoll et al., 2000] and slumping of volcanic edifices in the Canary Islands [Ward and Day, 2001].

Efficiency and precision for estimating timber and non-timber attributes using Landsat-based stratification methods in two-phase sampling in northwest California

Treesearch

Antti T. Kaartinen; Jeremy S. Fried; Paul A. Dunham

2002-01-01

Three Landsat TM-based GIS layers were evaluated as alternatives to conventional, photointerpretation-based stratification of FIA field plots. Estimates for timberland area, timber volume, and volume of down wood were calculated for California's North Coast Survey Unit of 2.5 million hectares. The estimates were compared on the basis of standard errors,...

Estimation on the First Cycle of the Annual Forest Inventory System: Methods, Preliminary Results, and Observations

Treesearch

Mark H. Hansen; Gary J. Brand; Daniel G. Wendt; Ronald E. McRoberts

2001-01-01

The first year of annual FIA data collection in the North Central region was completed for 1999 in Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. Estimates of timberland area, total growing-stock volume and growing-stock volume per acre are presented. These estimates are based on data from 1 year, collected at the base Federal inventory intensity, a lower intensity sample...

The effect of sampling frequency on the accuracy of nitrogen load estimates from a drained loblolly pine plantation in eastern North Carolina

Treesearch

George M. Chescheir; François Birgand; Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya

2010-01-01

Nutrient loading in drainage outflow is estimated from measured flows and nutrient concentrations in the drainage water. The loading function is ideally continuous, representing the product of continuously measured outflows and nutrient concentrations in drainage water. However, loading is often estimated as the product of continuously measured outflow and nutrient...

Using Elementary Mechanics to Estimate the Maximum Range of ICBMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, Joseph

2018-04-01

North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and, more recently, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has added a grave threat to world order. The threat presented by these weapons depends critically on missile range, i.e., the ability to reach North America or Europe while carrying a nuclear warhead. Using the limited information available from near-vertical test flights, how do arms control experts estimate the maximum range of an ICBM? The purpose of this paper is to show, using mathematics and concepts appropriate to a first-year calculus-based mechanics class, how a missile's range can be estimated from the (observable) altitude attained during its test flights. This topic—while grim—affords an ideal opportunity to show students how the application of basic physical principles can inform and influence public policy. For students who are already familiar with Kepler's laws, it should be possible to present in a single class period.

Basin-scale estimates of oceanic primary production by remote sensing - The North Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platt, Trevor; Caverhill, Carla; Sathyendranath, Shubha

1991-01-01

The monthly averaged CZCS data for 1979 are used to estimate annual primary production at ocean basin scales in the North Atlantic. The principal supplementary data used were 873 vertical profiles of chlorophyll and 248 sets of parameters derived from photosynthesis-light experiments. Four different procedures were tested for calculation of primary production. The spectral model with nonuniform biomass was considered as the benchmark for comparison against the other three models. The less complete models gave results that differed by as much as 50 percent from the benchmark. Vertically uniform models tended to underestimate primary production by about 20 percent compared to the nonuniform models. At horizontal scale, the differences between spectral and nonspectral models were negligible. The linear correlation between biomass and estimated production was poor outside the tropics, suggesting caution against the indiscriminate use of biomass as a proxy variable for primary production.

Long-term hydrology and water quality of a drained pine plantation in North Carolina

Treesearch

D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs

2011-01-01

Long-term data provide a basis for understanding natural variability, reducing uncertainty in model inputs and parameter estimation, and developing new hypotheses. This article evaluates 21 years (1988-2008) of hydrologic data and 17 years (1988-2005) of water quality data from a drained pine plantation in eastern North Carolina. The plantation age was 14 years at the...

Long-term growth trends of red spruce and fraser fir at Mt. Rogers, Virginia and Mt. Mitchell, North Carolina

Treesearch

J.C.G. Goelz; Thomas E. Burk; Shepard M. Zedaker

1999-01-01

Cross-sectional area growth and height growth of Fraser fir and red spruce trees growing in Virginia and North Carolina were analyzed to identify possible long-term growth trends. Cross-sectional area growth provided no evidence of growth decline. The individual discs were classified according to parameter estimates of the growth trend equation. The predominant pattern...

Assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian Basin Provinces, Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, Timothy R.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Mercier, Tracey J.; Leathers-Miller, Heidi M.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2016-11-30

Using a geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 13 million barrels of oil and 2,643 billion cubic feet of natural gas in the Dnieper-Donets Basin and North Carpathian Basin Provinces of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Poland.

Time Series Model Identification by Estimating Information.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

principle, Applications of Statistics, P. R. Krishnaiah , ed., North-Holland: Amsterdam, 27-41. Anderson, T. W. (1971). The Statistical Analysis of Time Series...E. (1969). Multiple Time Series Modeling, Multivariate Analysis II, edited by P. Krishnaiah , Academic Press: New York, 389-409. Parzen, E. (1981...Newton, H. J. (1980). Multiple Time Series Modeling, II Multivariate Analysis - V, edited by P. Krishnaiah , North Holland: Amsterdam, 181-197. Shibata, R

Student Transience in North Carolina: The Effect of School Mobility on Student Outcomes Using Longitudinal Data. Working Paper 22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Zeyu; Hannaway, Jane; D'Souza, Stephanie

2009-01-01

This paper describes the school mobility rates for elementary and middle school students in North Carolina and attempts to estimate the effect of school mobility on the performance of different groups of students using student fixed effects models. School mobility is defined as changing schools at times that are non-promotional (e.g., moving…

Relationships between otolith and fish size from Mediterranean and north-eastern Atlantic species to be used in predator-prey studies.

PubMed

Giménez, J; Manjabacas, A; Tuset, V M; Lombarte, A

2016-10-01

Regressions between fish length and otolith size are provided for 40 species from the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean and 142 species from the Mediterranean Sea. Regressions were also estimated at genus level. Most of the regressions (c. 84%) explained a high percentage of the deviance (>75%). © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Inferring epidemiologic dynamics from viral evolution: 2014–2015 Eurasian/North American highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses exceed transmission threshold, R0 = 1, in wild birds and poultry in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grear, Daniel R.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Dusek, Robert; Ip, Hon S.

2018-01-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a multihost pathogen with lineages that pose health risks for domestic birds, wild birds, and humans. One mechanism of intercontinental HPAIV spread is through wild bird reservoirs, and wild birds were the likely sources of a Eurasian (EA) lineage HPAIV into North America in 2014. The introduction resulted in several reassortment events with North American (NA) lineage low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the reassortant EA/NA H5N2 went on to cause one of the largest HPAIV poultry outbreaks in North America. We evaluated three hypotheses about novel HPAIV introduced into wild and domestic bird hosts: (i) transmission of novel HPAIVs in wild birds was restricted by mechanisms associated with highly pathogenic phenotypes; (ii) the HPAIV poultry outbreak was not self-sustaining and required viral input from wild birds; and (iii) reassortment of the EA H5N8 generated reassortant EA/NA AIVs with a fitness advantage over fully Eurasian lineages in North American wild birds. We used a time-rooted phylodynamic model that explicitly incorporated viral population dynamics with evolutionary dynamics to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) and viral migration among host types in domestic and wild birds, as well as between the EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. We did not find evidence to support hypothesis (i) or (ii) as our estimates of the transmission parameters suggested that the HPAIV outbreak met or exceeded the threshold for persistence in wild birds (R0 > 1) and poultry (R0 ≈ 1) with minimal estimated transmission among host types. There was also no evidence to support hypothesis (iii) because R0 values were similar among EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. Our results suggest that this novel HPAIV and reassortments did not encounter any transmission barriers sufficient to prevent persistence when introduced to wild or domestic birds.

Inferring epidemiologic dynamics from viral evolution: 2014-2015 Eurasian/North American highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses exceed transmission threshold, R0 = 1, in wild birds and poultry in North America.

PubMed

Grear, Daniel A; Hall, Jeffrey S; Dusek, Robert J; Ip, Hon S

2018-04-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a multihost pathogen with lineages that pose health risks for domestic birds, wild birds, and humans. One mechanism of intercontinental HPAIV spread is through wild bird reservoirs, and wild birds were the likely sources of a Eurasian (EA) lineage HPAIV into North America in 2014. The introduction resulted in several reassortment events with North American (NA) lineage low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses and the reassortant EA/NA H5N2 went on to cause one of the largest HPAIV poultry outbreaks in North America. We evaluated three hypotheses about novel HPAIV introduced into wild and domestic bird hosts: (i) transmission of novel HPAIVs in wild birds was restricted by mechanisms associated with highly pathogenic phenotypes; (ii) the HPAIV poultry outbreak was not self-sustaining and required viral input from wild birds; and (iii) reassortment of the EA H5N8 generated reassortant EA/NA AIVs with a fitness advantage over fully Eurasian lineages in North American wild birds. We used a time-rooted phylodynamic model that explicitly incorporated viral population dynamics with evolutionary dynamics to estimate the basic reproductive number ( R 0 ) and viral migration among host types in domestic and wild birds, as well as between the EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. We did not find evidence to support hypothesis (i) or (ii) as our estimates of the transmission parameters suggested that the HPAIV outbreak met or exceeded the threshold for persistence in wild birds ( R 0  > 1) and poultry ( R 0  ≈ 1) with minimal estimated transmission among host types. There was also no evidence to support hypothesis (iii) because R 0 values were similar among EA H5N8 and EA/NA H5N2 in wild birds. Our results suggest that this novel HPAIV and reassortments did not encounter any transmission barriers sufficient to prevent persistence when introduced to wild or domestic birds.

North American terrestrial CO 2 uptake largely offset by CH 4 and N 2O emissions: toward a full accounting of the greenhouse gas budget

DOE PAGES

Tian, Hanqin; Chen, Guangsheng; Lu, Chaoqun; ...

2014-03-14

The terrestrial ecosystems of North America have been identified as a sink of atmospheric CO 2 though there is no consensus on the magnitude. However, the emissions of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (CH 4 and N 2O) may offset or even overturn the climate cooling effect induced by the CO 2 sink. Using a coupled biogeochemical model, in this study, we have estimated the combined global warming potentials (GWP) of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O fluxes in North American terrestrial ecosystems and quantified the relative contributions of environmental factors to the GWP changes during 1979–2010. The uncertainty rangemore » for contemporary global warming potential has been quantified by synthesizing the existing estimates from inventory, forward modeling, and inverse modeling approaches. Our “best estimate” of net GWP for CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O fluxes was₋0.50 ± 0.27 Pg CO 2 eq/year (1 Pg=1015 g) in North American terrestrial ecosystems during 2001–2010. The emissions of CH 4 and N 2O from terrestrial ecosystems had offset about two thirds (73% ± 14%) of the land CO 2 sink in the North American continent, showing large differences across the three countries, with offset ratios of 57% ± 8% in US, 83% ± 17 % in Canada and 329% ± 119 % in Mexico. Climate change and elevated tropospheric ozone concentration have contributed the most to GWP increase, while elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration have contributed the most to GWP reduction. Extreme drought events over certain periods could result in a positive GWP. By integrating the existing estimates, we have found a wide range of uncertainty for the combined GWP. In conclusion, from both climate change science and policy perspectives, it is necessary to integrate ground and satellite observations with models for a more accurate accounting of these three greenhouse gases in North America.« less

Global biogeochemical implications of mercury discharges from rivers and sediment burial.

PubMed

Amos, Helen M; Jacob, Daniel J; Kocman, David; Horowitz, Hannah M; Zhang, Yanxu; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Horvat, Milena; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Krabbenhoft, David P; Sunderland, Elsie M

2014-08-19

Rivers are an important source of mercury (Hg) to marine ecosystems. Based on an analysis of compiled observations, we estimate global present-day Hg discharges from rivers to ocean margins are 27 ± 13 Mmol a(-1) (5500 ± 2700 Mg a(-1)), of which 28% reaches the open ocean and the rest is deposited to ocean margin sediments. Globally, the source of Hg to the open ocean from rivers amounts to 30% of atmospheric inputs. This is larger than previously estimated due to accounting for elevated concentrations in Asian rivers and variability in offshore transport across different types of estuaries. Riverine inputs of Hg to the North Atlantic have decreased several-fold since the 1970s while inputs to the North Pacific have increased. These trends have large effects on Hg concentrations at ocean margins but are too small in the open ocean to explain observed declines of seawater concentrations in the North Atlantic or increases in the North Pacific. Burial of Hg in ocean margin sediments represents a major sink in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle that has not been previously considered. We find that including this sink in a fully coupled global biogeochemical box model helps to balance the large anthropogenic release of Hg from commercial products recently added to global inventories. It also implies that legacy anthropogenic Hg can be removed from active environmental cycling on a faster time scale (centuries instead of millennia). Natural environmental Hg levels are lower than previously estimated, implying a relatively larger impact from human activity.

Revisiting the estimation of the North Sea air-sea flux of CO2 in 2001/02

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Maybritt; Paetsch, Johannes; Geyer, Beate; Thomas, Helmuth

2017-04-01

Based on seasonal observations of pCO2 and 6-hourly wind data derived from ERA-40 reanalysis data Thomas et al. (2004) estimated the annual North Sea net uptake of CO2 for the years 2001/02. The wind data were provided by the ECMWF with a spatial resolution of 1.125˚ (ECMWF, 2005). An updated estimate has now been achieved by using the more appropriate wind data set coastDat2 (Geyer, 2014) resulting from atmospheric hourly hindcast for Europe and the North Atlantic using COSMO-CLM version 4.8_clm_11 with spectral nudging from 1948-2015. The model uses a grid point distance of 0.22 degrees with an extension of about 68˚ W to 82˚ E, 25.6˚ N to 81.4˚ N. It could be shown that coastDat2 rather than ERA-40 data fit to observed hourly observations at the German Weather Service station Helgoland (54.175˚ N, 7.892˚ E). In most cases the coastDat2 values are larger than the ERA-40 values. The comparison of North Sea wide CO2 uptake yields 1.3 for ERA-40 and 1.8 mol CO2 m-2 a-1 for coastDat2 wind fields. References Geyer, B., 2014. Earth System Science Data, 6(1): 147-164. Doi:10.5194/essd-6-147-2014. ECMWF, 2005. http://www.ecmwf.int Thomas, H., Bozec, Y., Elkalay, K., de Baar, H.J.W., 2004. Science, 304: 1005-1008.

Water Use and Management in the Bakken Shale Oil Play in North Dakota

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horner, R. M.; Harto, C. B.; Jackson, R. B.

2016-03-15

Oil and natural gas development in the Bakken shale play of North Dakota has grown substantially since 2008. This study provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of water quantity and management impacts from this development by (1) estimating water demand for hydraulic fracturing in the Bakken from 2008 to 2012; (2) compiling volume estimates for maintenance water, or brine dilution water; (3) calculating water intensities normalized by the amount of oil produced, or estimated ultimate recovery (EUR); (4) estimating domestic water demand associated with the large oil services population; (5) analyzing the change in wastewater volumes from 2005 to 2012;more » and (6) examining existing water sources used to meet demand. Water use for hydraulic fracturing in the North Dakota Bakken grew 5-fold from 770 million gallons in 2008 to 4.3 billion gallons in 2012. First-year wastewater volumes grew in parallel, from an annual average of 1 135 000 gallons per well in 2008 to 2 905 000 gallons in 2012, exceeding the mean volume of water used in hydraulic fracturing and surpassing typical 4-year wastewater totals for the Barnett, Denver, and Marcellus basins. Surprisingly, domestic water demand from the temporary oilfield services population in the region may be comparable to the regional water demand from hydraulic fracturing activities. Existing groundwater resources are inadequate to meet the demand for hydraulic fracturing, but there appear to be adequate surface water resources, provided that access is available.« less

Phylogeny and Niche Conservatism in North and Central American Triatomine Bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae), Vectors of Chagas' Disease

PubMed Central

Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Zaldívar-Riverón, Alejandro; Peterson, A. Townsend; Sánchez-Cordero, Víctor; Ramsey, Janine M.

2014-01-01

The niche conservatism hypothesis states that related species diverge in niche characteristics at lower rates than expected, given their lineage divergence. Here we analyze whether niche conservatism is a common pattern among vector species (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae) of Trypanosoma cruzi that inhabit North and Central America, a highly heterogeneous landmass in terms of environmental gradients. Mitochondrial and nuclear loci were used in a multi-locus phylogenetic framework to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among species and estimate time of divergence of selected clades to draw biogeographic inferences. Then, we estimated similarity between the ecological niche of sister species and tested the niche conservatism hypothesis using our best estimate of phylogeny. Triatoma is not monophyletic. A primary clade with all North and Central American (NCA) triatomine species from the genera Triatoma, Dipetalogaster, and Panstrongylus, was consistently recovered. Nearctic species within the NCA clade (T. p. protracta, T. r. rubida) diverged during the Pliocene, whereas the Neotropical species (T. phyllosoma, T. longipennis, T. dimidiata complex) are estimated to have diverged more recently, during the Pleistocene. The hypothesis of niche conservatism could not be rejected for any of six sister species pairs. Niche similarity between sister species best fits a retention model. While this framework is used here to infer niche evolution, it has a direct impact on spatial vector dynamics driven by human population movements, expansion of transportation networks and climate change scenarios. PMID:25356550

Plate Motion and Crustal Deformation Estimated with Geodetic Data from the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argus, Donald F.; Heflin, Michael B.

1995-01-01

We use geodetic data taken over four years with the Global Positioning System (GPS) to estimate: (1) motion between six major plates and (2) motion relative to these plates of ten sites in plate boundary zones. The degree of consistency between geodetic velocities and rigid plates requires the (one-dimensional) standard errors in horizontal velocities to be approx. 2 mm/yr. Each of the 15 angular velocities describing motion between plate pairs that we estimate with GPS differs insignificantly from the corresponding angular velocity in global plate motion model NUVEL-1A, which averages motion over the past 3 m.y. The motion of the Pacific plate relative to both the Eurasian and North American plates is observed to be faster than predicted by NUVEL-1A, supporting the inference from Very Long B ase- line Interferometry (VLBI) that motion of the Pacific plate has speed up over the past few m.y. The Eurasia-North America pole of rotation is estimated to be north of NUVEL-1A, consistent with the independent hypothesis that the pole has recently migrated northward across northeast Asia to near the Lena River delta. Victoria, which lies above the main thrust at the Cascadia subduction zone, moves relative to the interior of the overriding plate at 30% of the velocity of the subducting plate, reinforcing the conclusion that the thrust there is locked beneath the continental shelf and slope.

Water Use and Management in the Bakken Shale Oil Play in North Dakota.

PubMed

Horner, R M; Harto, C B; Jackson, R B; Lowry, E R; Brandt, A R; Yeskoo, T W; Murphy, D J; Clark, C E

2016-03-15

Oil and natural gas development in the Bakken shale play of North Dakota has grown substantially since 2008. This study provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of water quantity and management impacts from this development by (1) estimating water demand for hydraulic fracturing in the Bakken from 2008 to 2012; (2) compiling volume estimates for maintenance water, or brine dilution water; (3) calculating water intensities normalized by the amount of oil produced, or estimated ultimate recovery (EUR); (4) estimating domestic water demand associated with the large oil services population; (5) analyzing the change in wastewater volumes from 2005 to 2012; and (6) examining existing water sources used to meet demand. Water use for hydraulic fracturing in the North Dakota Bakken grew 5-fold from 770 million gallons in 2008 to 4.3 billion gallons in 2012. First-year wastewater volumes grew in parallel, from an annual average of 1,135,000 gallons per well in 2008 to 2,905,000 gallons in 2012, exceeding the mean volume of water used in hydraulic fracturing and surpassing typical 4-year wastewater totals for the Barnett, Denver, and Marcellus basins. Surprisingly, domestic water demand from the temporary oilfield services population in the region may be comparable to the regional water demand from hydraulic fracturing activities. Existing groundwater resources are inadequate to meet the demand for hydraulic fracturing, but there appear to be adequate surface water resources, provided that access is available.

Flood-Inundation Maps for the North River in Colrain, Charlemont, and Shelburne, Massachusetts, From the Confluence of the East and West Branch North Rivers to the Deerfield River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Lombard, Pamela J.; Dudley, Robert W.

2015-10-27

The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near-real-time stage from the U.S. Geological Survey North River at Shattuckville, MA streamgage can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory, but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events. Introduction

Enhanced waterflooding design with dilute surfactant concentrations for North Sea conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michels, A.M.; Djojosoeparto, R.S.; Haas, H.

1996-08-01

Efficient selection procedures for surfactants have been applied to design a low-concentration surfactant-flooding process for North Sea oilfield application. Anionic surfactants of the propoxy ethoxy glyceryl sulfonate type can be used at 0.1 wt% concentrations together with sacrificial agents and without a polymer drive. Currently estimated unit technical costs (UTC`s)--at 8%--for application in the North Sea oil fields range frommore » $81 to $$94/incremental m{sup 3}, without taking uncertainty factors into account. Including such factors would likely add another $$31/m{sup 3} to the costs.« less

Garrison Dam/Lake Sakakawea Project, North Dakota Surplus Water Report. Volume 2. Appendix B - Public and Agency Coordination and Letters / Views of Federal, State, and Local Interests

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

These flows are crucial to the economic viability and vitality of the state of North Dalcota. In addition, the State ofNorth Dakota made a ...estimates that only 77 percent of the small municipal and industrial water users would enter into a surplus water agreement in the next ten years. The...water will normally be for small amount of water; 257,000 acre-feet is not a small amount. The 1958 Water Supply Act provides the legal authority to

Hydrogeology and sources of recharge to the Buffalo and Wahpeton aquifers in the southern part of the Red River of the North drainage basin, west-central Minnesota and southeastern North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenberg, Michael

1998-01-01

The potential sources of recharge to the Wahpeton aquifers investigated were the Red River of the North, and adjacent hydro geologic units. The volume of ground water pumped from the Wahpeton aquifers provides an estimate of the upper limit for the volume of recharge to the aquifer. Based on pumpage from all of the Wapheton aquifers from 1990 to 1993, the upper limit is about 580 million gallons per year (2.4 x 105 cubic feet per day).

Spatiotemporal distribution of Holocene populations in North America

PubMed Central

Chaput, Michelle A.; Kriesche, Björn; Betts, Matthew; Martindale, Andrew; Kulik, Rafal; Schmidt, Volker; Gajewski, Konrad

2015-01-01

As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 14C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of 14C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem. PMID:26351683

The estimated six-year mercury dry deposition across North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Leiming; Wu, Zhiyong; Cheng, Irene; Wright, L. Paige; Olson, Mark L.; Gay, David A.; Risch, Martin R.; Brooks, Steven; Castro, Mark S.; Conley, Gary D.; Edgerton, Eric S.; Holsen, Thomas M.; Luke, Winston; Tordon, Robert; Weiss-Penzias, Peter

2016-01-01

Dry deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) to various land covers surrounding 24 sites in North America was estimated for the years 2009 to 2014. Depending on location, multiyear mean annual Hg dry deposition was estimated to range from 5.1 to 23.8 μg m–2 yr–1 to forested canopies, 2.6 to 20.8 μg m–2 yr–1 to nonforest vegetated canopies, 2.4 to 11.2 μg m–2 yr–1 to urban and built up land covers, and 1.0 to 3.2 μg m–2 yr–1 to water surfaces. In the rural or remote environment in North America, annual Hg dry deposition to vegetated surfaces is dominated by leaf uptake of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), contrary to what was commonly assumed in earlier studies which frequently omitted GEM dry deposition as an important process. Dry deposition exceeded wet deposition by a large margin in all of the seasons except in the summer at the majority of the sites. GEM dry deposition over vegetated surfaces will not decrease at the same pace, and sometimes may even increase with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, suggesting that Hg emission reductions should be a long-term policy sustained by global cooperation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Branstator, Grant

The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to externalmore » forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.« less

Joint estimation of CD4+ cell progression and survival in untreated individuals with HIV-1 infection.

PubMed

Mangal, Tara D

2017-05-15

We compiled the largest dataset of seroconverter cohorts to date from 25 countries across Africa, North America, Europe, and Southeast/East (SE/E) Asia to simultaneously estimate transition rates between CD4 cell stages and death, in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive HIV-1-infected individuals. A hidden Markov model incorporating a misclassification matrix was used to represent natural short-term fluctuations and measurement errors in CD4 cell counts. Covariates were included to estimate the transition rates and survival probabilities for each subgroup. The median follow-up time for 16 373 eligible individuals was 4.1 years (interquartile range 1.7-7.1), and the mean age at seroconversion was 31.1 years (SD 8.8). A total of 14 525 individuals had recorded CD4 cell counts pre-ART, 1885 died, and 6947 initiated ART. Median (interquartile range) survival for men aged 20 years at seroconversion was 13.0 (12.4-13.4), 11.6 (10.9-12.3), and 8.3 years (7.9-8.9) in Europe/North America, Africa, and SE/E Asia, respectively. Mortality rates increase with age (hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.84-2.67 for >45 years compared with <25 years) and vary by region (hazard ratio 2.68, 1.75-4.12 for Africa and 1.88, 1.50-2.35 for Asia compared with Europe/North America). CD4 cell decline was significantly faster in Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America (hazard ratio 1.45, 1.36-1.54). Mortality and CD4 cell progression rates exhibited regional and age-specific differences, with decreased survival in African and SE/E Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America and in older age groups. This extensive dataset reveals heterogeneities between regions and ages, which should be incorporated into future HIV models.

Tropical Dominance of N2 Fixation in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marconi, Dario; Sigman, Daniel M.; Casciotti, Karen L.; Campbell, Ethan C.; Alexandra Weigand, M.; Fawcett, Sarah E.; Knapp, Angela N.; Rafter, Patrick A.; Ward, Bess B.; Haug, Gerald H.

2017-10-01

To investigate the controls on N2 fixation and the role of the Atlantic in the global ocean's fixed nitrogen (N) budget, Atlantic N2 fixation is calculated by combining meridional nitrate fluxes across World Ocean Circulation Experiment sections with observed nitrate 15N/14N differences between northward and southward transported nitrate. N2 fixation inputs of 27.1 ± 4.3 Tg N/yr and 3.0 ± 0.5 Tg N/yr are estimated north of 11°S and 24°N, respectively. That is, 90% of the N2 fixation in the Atlantic north of 11°S occurs south of 24°N in a region with upwelling that imports phosphorus (P) in excess of N relative to phytoplankton requirements. This suggests that, under the modern iron-rich conditions of the equatorial and North Atlantic, N2 fixation occurs predominantly in response to P-bearing, N-poor conditions. We estimate a N2 fixation rate of 30.5 ± 4.9 Tg N/yr north of 30°S, implying only 3 Tg N/yr between 30° and 11°S, despite evidence of P-bearing, N-poor surface waters in this region as well; this is consistent with iron limitation of N2 fixation in the South Atlantic. Since the ocean flows through the Atlantic surface in <2,500 years, similar to the residence time of oceanic fixed N, Atlantic N2 fixation can stabilize the N-to-P ratio of the global ocean. However, the calculated rate of Atlantic N2 fixation is a small fraction of global ocean estimates for either N2 fixation or fixed N loss. This suggests that, in the modern ocean, an approximate balance between N loss and N2 fixation is achieved within the combined Indian and Pacific basins.

Linear mixed-effects models to describe length-weight relationships for yellow croaker (Larimichthys Polyactis) along the north coast of China.

PubMed

Ma, Qiuyun; Jiao, Yan; Ren, Yiping

2017-01-01

In this study, length-weight relationships and relative condition factors were analyzed for Yellow Croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) along the north coast of China. Data covered six regions from north to south: Yellow River Estuary, Coastal Waters of Northern Shandong, Jiaozhou Bay, Coastal Waters of Qingdao, Haizhou Bay, and South Yellow Sea. In total 3,275 individuals were collected during six years (2008, 2011-2015). One generalized linear model, two simply linear models and nine linear mixed effect models that applied the effects from regions and/or years to coefficient a and/or the exponent b were studied and compared. Among these twelve models, the linear mixed effect model with random effects from both regions and years fit the data best, with lowest Akaike information criterion value and mean absolute error. In this model, the estimated a was 0.0192, with 95% confidence interval 0.0178~0.0308, and the estimated exponent b was 2.917 with 95% confidence interval 2.731~2.945. Estimates for a and b with the random effects in intercept and coefficient from Region and Year, ranged from 0.013 to 0.023 and from 2.835 to 3.017, respectively. Both regions and years had effects on parameters a and b, while the effects from years were shown to be much larger than those from regions. Except for Coastal Waters of Northern Shandong, a decreased from north to south. Condition factors relative to reference years of 1960, 1986, 2005, 2007, 2008~2009 and 2010 revealed that the body shape of Yellow Croaker became thinner in recent years. Furthermore relative condition factors varied among months, years, regions and length. The values of a and relative condition factors decreased, when the environmental pollution became worse, therefore, length-weight relationships could be an indicator for the environment quality. Results from this study provided basic description of current condition of Yellow Croaker along the north coast of China.

Isopycnal diffusivity in the tropical North Atlantic oxygen minimum zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köllner, Manuela; Visbeck, Martin; Tanhua, Toste; Fischer, Tim

2017-04-01

Isopycnal diffusivity plays an important role in the ventilation of the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Lateral tracer transport is described by isopycnal diffusivity and mean advection of the tracer (e.g. oxygen), together they account for up to 70% of the oxygen supply for the OMZ. One of the big challenges is to separate diffusivity from advection. Isopycnal diffusivity was estimated to be Ky=(500 ± 200) m2 s-1 and Kx=(1200 ± 600) m2 s-1 by Banyte et. al (2013) from a Tracer Release Experiment (TRE). Hahn et al. (2014) estimated a meridional eddy diffusivity of 1350 m2 s-1 at 100 m depth decaying to less than 300 m2 s-1 below 800 m depth from repeated ship sections of CTD and ADCP data in addition with hydrographic mooring data. Uncertainties of the estimated diffusivities were still large, thus the Oxygen Supply Tracer Release Experiment (OSTRE) was set up to estimate isopycnal diffusivity in the OMZ using a newly developed sampling strategy of a control volume. The tracer was released in 2012 in the core of the OMZ at approximately 410 m depth and mapped after 6, 15 and 29 months in a regular grid. In addition to the calculation of tracer column integrals from vertical tracer profiles a new sampling method was invented and tested during two of the mapping cruises. The mean eddy diffusivity during OSTRE was found to be about (300 ± 130) m2 s-1. Additionally, the tracer has been advected further to the east and west by zonal jets. We compare different analysis methods to estimate isopycnal diffusivity from tracer spreading and show the advantage of the control volume surveys and control box approach. From the control box approach we are estimating the strength of the zonal jets within the OMZ core integrated over the TRE time period. References: Banyte, D., Visbeck, M., Tanhua, T., Fischer, T., Krahmann, G.,Karstensen, J., 2013. Lateral Diffusivity from Tracer Release Experiments in the Tropical North Atlantic Thermocline. Journal of Geophysical Research 118. Hahn, J., Brandt, P., Greatbatch, R., Krahmann, G., Körtzinger, A., 2014. Oxygen variance and meridional oxygen supply in the Tropical North East Atlantic oxygen minimum zone. Climate Dynamics 43, 2999-3024.

Methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations of selected water-quality constituents for stream sites in the Red River of the North basin, North Dakota and Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guenthner, R.S.

1991-01-01

Future development of the Garrison Diversion Unit may divert water from the Missouri River into the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North for municipal and industrial use. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's Canals, Rivers, and Reservoirs Salinity Accounting Procedures model can be used to predict the effect various operating plans could have on water quality in the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. The model uses, as Input, monthly means of streamflow and selected water-quality constituents for a 54-year period at 28 nodes on the Sheyenne River and the Red River of the North. This report provides methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations of selected water-quality constituents that can be used for input to and calibration of the salinity model.Mater-quality data for 32 gaging stations can be used to define selected water-quality characteristics at the 28 model nodes. Materquality data were retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Mater Data Storage and Retrieval System data base and statistical summaries were prepared. The frequency of water-quality data collection at the gaging stations is inadequate to define monthly mean concentrations of the individual water-quality constituents for all months for the 54-year period; therefore, methods for estimating monthly mean concentrations were developed. Relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO3), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and streamflow were developed as the primary method to estimate monthly mean concentrations. Relations between specific conductance and streamflow and relations between selected water-quality constituents [dissolved solids, hardness (as CaCO3), sodium, sulfate, and chloride] and specific conductance were developed so that a cascaded-regression relation could be developed as a second method of estimating monthly mean concentrations and, thus, utilize a large specific-conductance data base. Information about the quantity and the quality of ground water discharging to the Sheyenne River is needed for model input for reaches of the river where ground water accounts for a substantial part of streamflow during periods of low flow. Ground-water discharge was identified for two reaches of the Sheyenne River. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in the vicinity of Warwick, N.Dak., was about 14.8 cubic feet per second and the estimated dissolved-solids concentration was about 441 milligrams per liter during October 15 and 16, 1986. Ground-water discharge to the Sheyenne River in a reach between Lisbon and Kindred, N.Dak., ranged from an average of 25.3 cubic feet per second during September 13 to November 19, 1963, to about 45.0 cubic feet per second during October 21 and 22, 1986. Dissolved-solids concentration was estimated at about 442 milligrams per liter during October 21 and 22, 1986.

Methods for estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and mean annual flow for ungaged locations on streams in North Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.

2017-01-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division, developed regional regression equations for estimating selected low-flow frequency and mean annual flow statistics for ungaged streams in north Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, diversions, or urbanization. Selected low-flow frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 56 streamgage locations within north Georgia and 75 miles beyond the State’s borders in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, and South Carolina were combined to form the final dataset used in the regional regression analysis. Because some of the streamgages in the study recorded zero flow, the final regression equations were developed using weighted left-censored regression analysis to analyze the flow data in an unbiased manner, with weights based on the number of years of record. The set of equations includes the annual minimum 1- and 7-day average streamflow with the 10-year recurrence interval (referred to as 1Q10 and 7Q10), monthly 7Q10, and mean annual flow. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and relief ratio for the selected low-flow frequency statistics and drainage area and mean annual precipitation for mean annual flow. The average standard error of estimate was 13.7 percent for the mean annual flow regression equation and ranged from 26.1 to 91.6 percent for the selected low-flow frequency equations.The equations, which are based on data from streams with little to no flow alterations, can be used to provide estimates of the natural flows for selected ungaged stream locations in the area of Georgia north of the Fall Line. The regression equations are not to be used to estimate flows for streams that have been altered by the effects of major dams, surface-water withdrawals, groundwater withdrawals (pumping wells), diversions, or wastewater discharges. The regression equations should be used only for ungaged sites with drainage areas between 1.67 and 576 square miles, mean annual precipitation between 47.6 and 81.6 inches, and relief ratios between 0.146 and 0.607; these are the ranges of the explanatory variables used to develop the equations. An attempt was made to develop regional regression equations for the area of Georgia south of the Fall Line by using the same approach used during this study for north Georgia; however, the equations resulted with high average standard errors of estimates and poorly predicted flows below 0.5 cubic foot per second, which may be attributed to the karst topography common in that area.The final regression equations developed from this study are planned to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system that provides users with access to an assortment of analytical tools useful for water-resources planning and management, and for engineering design applications, such as the design of bridges. The StreamStats program provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for U.S. Geological Survey streamgage locations and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats also can compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in Georgia.

A Geodetic Strain Rate Model for the Pacific-North American Plate Boundary, western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreemer, C.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Holland, A. A.; Bennett, R. A.

2012-04-01

We present a model of crustal strain rates derived from GPS measurements of horizontal station velocities in the Pacific-North American plate boundary in the western United States. The model reflects a best estimate of present-day deformation from the San Andreas fault system in the west to the Basin and Range province in the east. Of the total 2,846 GPS velocities used in the model, 1,197 are derived by ourselves, and 1,649 are taken from (mostly) published results. The velocities derived by ourselves (the "UNR solution") are estimated from GPS position time-series of continuous and semi-continuous stations for which data are publicly available. We estimated ITRF2005 positions from 2002-2011.5 using JPL's GIPSY-OASIS II software with ambiguity resolution applied using our custom Ambizap software. Only stations with time-series that span at least 2.25 years are considered. We removed from the time-series continental-scale common-mode errors using a spatially-varying filtering technique. Velocity uncertainties (typically 0.1-0.3 mm/yr) assume that the time-series contain flicker plus white noise. We used a subset of stations on the stable parts of the Pacific and North American plates to estimate the Pacific-North American pole of rotation. This pole is applied as a boundary condition to the model and the North American - ITRF2005 pole is used to rotate our velocities into a North America fixed reference frame. We do not include parts of the time-series that show curvature due to post-seismic deformation after major earthquakes and we also exclude stations whose time-series display a significant unexplained non-linearity or that are near volcanic centers. Transient effects longer than the observation period (i.e., slow viscoelastic relaxation) are left in the data. We added to the UNR solution velocities from 12 other studies. The velocities are transformed onto the UNR solution's reference frame by estimating and applying a translation and rotation that minimizes the velocities at collocated stations. We removed obvious outliers and velocities in areas that we identified to undergo subsidence likely due to excessive water pumping. For the strain rate calculations we excluded GPS stations with anomalous vertical motion or annual horizontal periodicity, which are indicators of local site instability. First, we used the stations from the UNR solution to create a Delaunay triangulation and estimated the horizontal strain rate components (and rigid body rotation) for each triangle in a linear least-squares inversion using the horizontal velocities as input. Some level of spatial damping was applied to minimize unnecessary spatial variation in the model parameters. The strain rates estimates were then used as a priori strain rate variances in a method that fits continuous bi-cubic Bessel spline functions through the velocity gradient field while minimizing the weighted misfit to all velocities. A minimal level of spatial smoothing of the variances was applied. The strain rate tensor model is shown by contours of the second invariant of the tensor, which is a measure of the amplitude that is coordinate frame independent. We also show a map of the tensor style and of the signal-to-noise ratio of the model.

Incidence of immediate hypersensitivity reaction and serum sickness following administration of Crotalidae polyvalent immune Fab antivenom: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Schaeffer, Tammi H; Khatri, Vaishali; Reifler, Liza M; Lavonas, Eric J

2012-02-01

  Crotalidae polyvalent immune Fab (ovine) (FabAV) is commonly used in the treatment of symptomatic North American crotaline snake envenomation. When approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2000, the incidences of immediate hypersensitivity reactions and serum sickness were reported as 0.14 and 0.18, respectively. The objective of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the incidence of immediate hypersensitivity reactions and serum sickness reported in studies of patients treated with FabAV therapy after North American crotaline envenomation.   The authors searched PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, and EMBASE from January 1, 1997, to September 20, 2010, for English-language medical literature and cross-referenced bibliographies of reviewed articles. The published abstracts of the major toxicology conferences were also searched. All prospective and retrospective cohort studies with patients receiving FabAV therapy for North American crotaline envenomations were eligible for data abstraction. Two content experts reviewed full-text articles and extracted relevant study design and outcome data. Proportions of immediate hypersensitivity and serum sickness for each study were analyzed in a random-effects model to produce an overall estimate of immediate hypersensitivity and serum sickness incidence associated with FabAV administration.   The literature search revealed 11 unique studies of patients who received FabAV that contained information on immediate hypersensitivity reactions and serum sickness. The meta-analysis produced a combined estimate of the incidence of immediate hypersensitivity of 0.08 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05 to 0.11) and a combined estimate of the incidence of serum sickness of 0.13 (95% CI = 0.07 to 0.21).   In this systematic literature review and meta-analysis, the combined estimates of the incidence of immediate hypersensitivity reactions and serum sickness from FabAV in the treatment of symptomatic North American crotaline envenomations appear to be lower than previously reported, at 0.08 and 0.13, respectively. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Investigations of (Delta)14C, (delta)13C, and (delta)15N in vertebrae of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) from the eastern North Pacific Ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, L A; Andrews, A H; Cailliet, G M

The white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) has a complex life history that is characterized by large scale movements and a highly variable diet. Estimates of age and growth for the white shark from the eastern North Pacific Ocean indicate they have a slow growth rate and a relatively high longevity. Age, growth, and longevity estimates useful for stock assessment and fishery models, however, require some form of validation. By counting vertebral growth band pairs, ages can be estimated, but because not all sharks deposit annual growth bands and many are not easily discernable, it is necessary to validate growth band periodicitymore » with an independent method. Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) age validation uses the discrete {sup 14}C signal produced from thermonuclear testing in the 1950s and 1960s that is retained in skeletal structures as a time-specific marker. Growth band pairs in vertebrae, estimated as annual and spanning the 1930s to 1990s, were analyzed for {Delta}{sup 14}C and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes ({delta}{sup 13}C and {delta}{sup 15}N). The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility of {sup 14}C age validation for a wide-ranging species with a complex life history and to use stable isotope measurements in vertebrae as a means of resolving complexity introduced into the {sup 14}C chronology by ontogenetic shifts in diet and habitat. Stable isotopes provided useful trophic position information; however, validation of age estimates was confounded by what may have been some combination of the dietary source of carbon to the vertebrae, large-scale movement patterns, and steep {sup 14}C gradients with depth in the eastern North Pacific Ocean.« less

Multicomponent seismic loss estimation on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.; Erberik, M. A.; Yakut, A.

2015-12-01

Seismic loss estimation is essential to incorporate seismic risk of structures into an efficient decision-making framework. Evaluation of seismic damage of structures requires a multidisciplinary approach including earthquake source characterization, seismological prediction of earthquake-induced ground motions, prediction of structural responses exposed to ground shaking, and finally estimation of induced damage to structures. As the study region, Erzincan, a city on the eastern part of Turkey is selected which is located in the conjunction of three active strike-slip faults as North Anatolian Fault, North East Anatolian Fault and Ovacik fault. Erzincan city center is in a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments that has experienced devastating earthquakes such as the 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) and the 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6) events, resulting in extensive amount of physical as well as economical losses. These losses are attributed to not only the high seismicity of the area but also as a result of the seismic vulnerability of the constructed environment. This study focuses on the seismic damage estimation of Erzincan using both regional seismicity and local building information. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are selected from a set of scenario events simulated with the stochastic finite fault methodology using regional seismicity parameters. Then, existing building stock are classified into specified groups represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom systems. Through these models, the inelastic dynamic structural responses are investigated with non-linear time history analysis. To assess the potential seismic damage in the study area, fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived. Finally, the estimated damage is compared with the observed damage during the 1992 Erzincan earthquake. The results are observed to have a reasonable match indicating the efficiency of the ground motion simulations and building analyses.

Upper Mantle Shear Wave Structure Beneath North America From Multi-mode Surface Wave Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshizawa, K.; Ekström, G.

2008-12-01

The upper mantle structure beneath the North American continent has been investigated from measurements of multi-mode phase speeds of Love and Rayleigh waves. To estimate fundamental-mode and higher-mode phase speeds of surface waves from a single seismogram at regional distances, we have employed a method of nonlinear waveform fitting based on a direct model-parameter search using the neighbourhood algorithm (Yoshizawa & Kennett, 2002). The method of the waveform analysis has been fully automated by employing empirical quantitative measures for evaluating the accuracy/reliability of estimated multi-mode phase dispersion curves, and thus it is helpful in processing the dramatically increasing numbers of seismic data from the latest regional networks such as USArray. As a first step toward modeling the regional anisotropic shear-wave velocity structure of the North American upper mantle with extended vertical resolution, we have applied the method to long-period three-component records of seismic stations in North America, which mostly comprise the GSN and US regional networks as well as the permanent and transportable USArray stations distributed by the IRIS DMC. Preliminary multi-mode phase-speed models show large-scale patterns of isotropic heterogeneity, such as a strong velocity contrast between the western and central/eastern United States, which are consistent with the recent global and regional models (e.g., Marone, et al. 2007; Nettles & Dziewonski, 2008). We will also discuss radial anisotropy of shear wave speed beneath North America from multi-mode dispersion measurements of Love and Rayleigh waves.

Hydrology of Eagle Creek Basin and effects of groundwater pumping on streamflow, 1969-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matherne, Anne Marie; Myers, Nathan C.; McCoy, Kurt J.

2010-01-01

Urban and resort development and drought conditions have placed increasing demands on the surface-water and groundwater resources of the Eagle Creek Basin, in southcentral New Mexico. The Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico, obtains 60-70 percent of its water from the Eagle Creek Basin. The village drilled four production wells on Forest Service land along North Fork Eagle Creek; three of the four wells were put into service in 1988 and remain in use. Local citizens have raised questions as to the effects of North Fork well pumping on flow in Eagle Creek. In response to these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Village of Ruidoso, conducted a hydrologic investigation from 2007 through 2009 of the potential effect of the North Fork well field on streamflow in North Fork Eagle Creek. Mean annual precipitation for the period of record (1942-2008) at the Ruidoso climate station is 22.21 inches per year with a range from 12.27 inches in 1970 to 34.81 inches in 1965. Base-flow analysis indicates that the 1970-80 mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were 2,260, 1,440, and 819 acre-ft/yr, respectively, and for 1989-2008 were 1,290, 871, and 417 acre-ft/yr, respectively. These results indicate that mean annual discharge, direct runoff, and base flow were less during the 1989-2008 period than during the 1970-80 period. Mean annual precipitation volume for the study area was estimated to be 12,200 acre-feet. Estimated annual evapotranspiration for the study area ranged from 8,730 to 8,890 acre-feet. Estimated annual basin yield for the study area was 3,390 acre-ft or about 28 percent of precipitation. On the basis of basin-yield computations, annual recharge was estimated to be 1,950 acre-ft, about 16 percent of precipitation. Using a chloride mass-balance method, groundwater recharge over the study area was estimated to average 490 acre-ft, about 4.0 percent of precipitation. Because the North Fork wells began pumping in 1988, 1969-80 represents the pre-groundwater-pumping period, and 1988-2009 represents the groundwater-pumping period. The 5-year moving average for precipitation at the Ruidoso climate station shows years of below-average precipitation during both time periods, but no days of zero flow were recorded for the 11-year period 1970-80 and no-flow days were recorded in 11 of 20 years for the 1988-2009 period. View report for unabridged abstract.

Mount Rainier National Park and Olympic National Park elk monitoring program annual report 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Happe, Patricia J.; Reid, Mason; Griffin, Paul C.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Vales, David J.; Moeller, Barbara J.; Tirhi, Michelle; McCorquodale, Scott

2013-01-01

Fiscal year 2011 was the first year of implementing an approved elk monitoring protocol in Mount Rainier (MORA) and Olympic (OLYM) National Parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) (Griffin et al. 2012). However, it was the fourth and second year of gathering data according to protocol in MORA and OLYM respectively; data gathered during the protocol development phase followed procedures that are laid out in the protocol. Elk monitoring in these large wilderness parks relies on aerial surveys from a helicopter. Summer surveys are intended to provide quantitative estimates of abundance, sex and age composition, and distribution of migratory elk in high elevation trend count areas. An unknown number of elk is not detected during surveys; however the protocol estimates the number of missed elk by applying a model that accounts for detection bias. Detection bias in elk surveys in MORA is estimated using a double-observer sightability model that was developed using survey data from 2008-2010 (Griffin et al. 2012). That model was developed using elk that were previously equipped with radio collars by cooperating tribes. At the onset of protocol development in OLYM there were no existing radio-collars on elk. Consequently the majority of the effort in OLYM in the past 4 years has been focused on capturing and radio-collaring elk and conducting sightability trials needed to develop a double-observer sightability model in OLYM. In this annual report we provide estimates of abundance and composition for MORA elk, raw counts of elk made in OLYM, and describe sightability trials conducted in OLYM. At MORA the North trend count area was surveyed twice and the South once (North Rainier herd, and South Rainier herd). We counted 373 and 267 elk during two replicate surveys of the North Rainier herd, and 535 elk in the South Rainier herd. Using the model, we estimated that 413 and 320 elk were in the North and 652 elk were in the South trend count areas during the time of the respective surveys. At OLYM, the Core and Northwest trend count areas were completely surveyed, as were portions of the Quinault. In addition, we surveyed 10 survey units specifically to get resight data. Two-hundred and forty eight elk were counted in the Core, 19 in the Northwest, and 169 in the Quinault. We conducted double-observer sightability trials associated with 14 collared elk groups for use in developing the double-observer sightability model for OLYM.

Bayesian estimation of the sensitivity and specificity of individual fecal culture and Paralisa to detect Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection in young farmed deer.

PubMed

Stringer, Lesley A; Jones, Geoff; Jewell, Chris P; Noble, Alasdair D; Heuer, Cord; Wilson, Peter R; Johnson, Wesley O

2013-11-01

A Bayesian latent class model was used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of an immunoglobulin G1 serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Paralisa) and individual fecal culture to detect young deer infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis. Paired fecal and serum samples were collected, between July 2009 and April 2010, from 20 individual yearling (12-24-month-old) deer in each of 20 South Island and 18 North Island herds in New Zealand and subjected to culture and Paralisa, respectively. Two fecal samples and 16 serum samples from 356 North Island deer, and 55 fecal and 37 serum samples from 401 South Island deer, were positive. The estimate of individual fecal culture sensitivity was 77% (95% credible interval [CI] = 61-92%) with specificity of 99% (95% CI = 98-99.7%). The Paralisa sensitivity estimate was 19% (95% CI = 10-30%), with specificity of 94% (95% CI = 93-96%). All estimates were robust to variation of priors and assumptions tested in a sensitivity analysis. The data informs the use of the tests in determining infection status at the individual and herd level.

A global inventory of small floating plastic debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Lebreton, Laurent; Maximenko, Nikolai; Hardesty, Britta Denise; van Franeker, Jan A.; Eriksen, Marcus; Siegel, David; Galgani, Francois; Lavender Law, Kara

2015-12-01

Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Atlantic and North Pacific accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardize a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and coupled this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons, which is only approximately 1% of global plastic waste estimated to enter the ocean in the year 2010. These estimates are larger than previous global estimates, but vary widely because the scarcity of data in most of the world ocean, differences in model formulations, and fundamental knowledge gaps in the sources, transformations and fates of microplastics in the ocean.

High risk of tuberculous infection in North Sulawesi Province of Indonesia.

PubMed

Bachtiar, A; Miko, T Y; Machmud, R; Mehta, F; Chadha, V K; Yudarini, P; Loprang, F; Fahmi, S; Jitendra, R

2009-12-01

Of all the provinces in Indonesia, the highest tuberculosis (TB) case notification rates are reported from North Sulawesi Province. To estimate the annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI) among schoolchildren in the 6-9 year age group. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in 99 schools selected by a two-stage sampling process. Children attending grades 1-4 in the selected schools were administered intradermally with 2 tuberculin units (TUs) of purified protein derivative RT23 with Tween 80, and the maximum transverse diameter of induration was measured about 72 h later. A total of 6557 children in the 6-9 year age group were satisfactorily test-read, irrespective of their bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination status. Based on the frequency distribution of reaction sizes obtained among satisfactorily test-read children (without and with BCG scar), the estimated ARTI rates when estimated by different methods (anti-mode, mirror-image and mixture model) varied between 1.9% and 2.5%. BCG-induced tuberculin sensitivity was not found to influence the ARTI estimates, as the differences in estimates between children without and with BCG scar were not statistically significant. TB control efforts should be further intensified to reduce the risk of tuberculous infection.

A Bayesian approach to assess heart disease mortality among persons with diabetes in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Cadwell, Betsy L; Boyle, James P; Tierney, Edward F; Thompson, Theodore J

2007-09-01

Some states' death certificate form includes a diabetes yes/no check box that enables policy makers to investigate the change in heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Because the check boxes are sometimes unmarked, a method accounting for missing data is needed when estimating heart disease mortality rates by diabetes status. Using North Dakota's data (1992-2003), we generate the posterior distribution of diabetes status to estimate diabetes status among those with heart disease and an unmarked check box using Monte Carlo methods. Combining this estimate with the number of death certificates with known diabetes status provides a numerator for heart disease mortality rates. Denominators for rates were estimated from the North Dakota Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Accounting for missing data, age-adjusted heart disease mortality rates (per 1,000) among women with diabetes were 8.6 during 1992-1998 and 6.7 during 1999-2003. Among men with diabetes, rates were 13.0 during 1992-1998 and 10.0 during 1999-2003. The Bayesian approach accounted for the uncertainty due to missing diabetes status as well as the uncertainty in estimating the populations with diabetes.

Acute Gastrointestinal Illness Risks in North Carolina Community Water Systems: A Methodological Comparison.

PubMed

DeFelice, Nicholas B; Johnston, Jill E; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2015-08-18

The magnitude and spatial variability of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) cases attributable to microbial contamination of U.S. community drinking water systems are not well characterized. We compared three approaches (drinking water attributable risk, quantitative microbial risk assessment, and population intervention model) to estimate the annual number of emergency department visits for AGI attributable to microorganisms in North Carolina community water systems. All three methods used 2007-2013 water monitoring and emergency department data obtained from state agencies. The drinking water attributable risk method, which was the basis for previous U.S. Environmental Protection Agency national risk assessments, estimated that 7.9% of annual emergency department visits for AGI are attributable to microbial contamination of community water systems. However, the other methods' estimates were more than 2 orders of magnitude lower, each attributing 0.047% of annual emergency department visits for AGI to community water system contamination. The differences in results between the drinking water attributable risk method, which has been the main basis for previous national risk estimates, and the other two approaches highlight the need to improve methods for estimating endemic waterborne disease risks, in order to prioritize investments to improve community drinking water systems.

Subduction in an Eddy-Resolving State Estimate of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebbie, Geoffrey

2004-01-01

Are eddies an important contributor to subduction in the eastern subtropical gyre? Here, an adjoint model is used to combine a regional, eddy-resolving numerical model with observations to produce a state estimate of the ocean circulation. The estimate is a synthesis of a variety of in- situ observations from the Subduction Experiment, TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry, and the MTI General Circulation Model. The adjoint method is successful because the Northeast Atlantic Ocean is only weakly nonlinear. The state estimate provides a physically-interpretable, eddy-resolving information source to diagnose subduction. Estimates of eddy subduction for the eastern subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic are larger than previously calculated from parameterizations in coarse-resolution models. Furthermore, eddy subduction rates have typical magnitudes of 15% of the total subduction rate. Eddies contribute as much as 1 Sverdrup to water-mass transformation, and hence subduction, in the North Equatorial Current and the Azores Current. The findings of this thesis imply that the inability to resolve or accurately parameterize eddy subduction in climate models would lead to an accumulation of error in the structure of the main thermocline, even in the relatively-quiescent eastern subtropical gyre.

Plant biomarkers in aerosols record isotopic discrimination of terrestrial photosynthesis.

PubMed

Conte, Maureen H; Weber, John C

2002-06-06

Carbon uptake by the oceans and by the terrestrial biosphere can be partitioned using changes in the (12)C/(13)C isotopic ratio (delta(13)C) of atmospheric carbon dioxide, because terrestrial photosynthesis strongly discriminates against (13)CO(2), whereas ocean uptake does not. This approach depends on accurate estimates of the carbon isotopic discrimination of terrestrial photosynthesis (Delta; ref. 5) at large regional scales, yet terrestrial ecosystem heterogeneity makes such estimates problematic. Here we show that ablated plant wax compounds in continental air masses can be used to estimate Delta over large spatial scales and at less than monthly temporal resolution. We measured plant waxes in continental air masses advected to Bermuda, which are mainly of North American origin, and used the wax isotopic composition to estimate Delta simply. Our estimates indicate a large (5 6 per thousand) seasonal variation in Delta of the temperate North American biosphere, with maximum discrimination occurring in late spring, coincident with the onset of production. We suggest that the observed seasonality arises from several factors, including seasonal shifts in the proportions of production by C(3) and C(4) plants, and environmentally controlled adjustments in the photosynthetic discrimination of C(3)-plant-dominated ecosystems.

Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey as a tool for conservation: A critique of Bart et al. (2004)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Nichols, James D.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Bart et al. (2004) develop methods for predicting needed samples for estimation of long-term trends from Count survey data, and they apply these methods to the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). They recommend adding approximately 40% more survey routes ill the BBS to allow for estimation of long-term (i.e., 20 year) trends for a collection of species. We critique several aspects of their analysis and suggest that their focus on long-term trends and expansion of the present survey design will provide limited benefits for conservation because it fails to either enhance the credibility of the survey or better tie the survey to regional management activities. A primary innovation claimed by Bart et al. (2004) is the incorporation of bias in estimation of study planning. We question the value of this approach, as it requires reliable estimates of range of future bias. We show that estimates of bias used by Bart et al. (2004) are speculative. Failure to obtain better estimates of this bias is likely to compromise the credibility of future analyses of the survey. We also note that the generic analysis of population trends that they provide is of questionable validity and is unlikely to be relevant for regions and species of management concern.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew; Oliver, Kevin; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul; Achterberg, Eric

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew P.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul R.; Achterberg, Eric P.

2016-05-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2, and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of nonseasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer-term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, M.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Yool, A.; Halloran, P. R.; Achterberg, E. P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

An assessment of forest cover trends in South and North Korea, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Engler, Robin; Teplyakov, Victor; Adams, Jonathan M

2014-01-01

It is generally believed that forest cover in North Korea has undergone a substantial decrease since 1980, while in South Korea, forest cover has remained relatively static during that same period of time. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Forest Resources Assessments--based on the reported forest inventories from North and South Korea--suggest a major forest cover decrease in North Korea, but only a slight decrease in South Korea during the last 30 years. In this study, we seek to check and validate those assessments by comparing them to independently derived forest cover maps compiled for three time intervals between 1990 and 2010, as well as to provide a spatially explicit view of forest cover change in the Korean Peninsula since the 1990s. We extracted tree cover data for the Korean Peninsula from existing global datasets derived from satellite imagery. Our estimates, while qualitatively supporting the FAO results, show that North Korea has lost a large number of densely forested areas, and thus in this sense has suffered heavier forest loss than the FAO assessment suggests. Given the limited time interval studied in our assessment, the overall forest loss from North Korea during the whole span of time since 1980 may have been even heavier than in our estimate. For South Korea, our results indicate that the forest cover has remained relatively stable at the national level, but that important variability in forest cover evolution exists at the regional level: While the northern and western provinces show an overall decrease in forested areas, large areas in the southeastern part of the country have increased their forest cover.

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the North Caspian Basin, Middle Caspian Basin, North Ustyurt Basin, and South Caspian Basin Provinces, Caspian Sea Area, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Gautier, Donald L.; Brownfield, Michael E.; Pitman, Janet K.; Cook, Troy A.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean volumes of technically recoverable, conventional, undiscovered petroleum resources at 19.6 billion barrels of crude oil, 243 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 9.3 billion barrels of natural gas liquids for the Caspian Sea area, using a geology-based assessment methodology.

Impact of North Carolina's Early Childhood Programs and Policies on Educational Outcomes in Elementary School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodge, Kenneth A.; Bai, Yu; Ladd, Helen F.; Muschkin, Clara G.

2017-01-01

North Carolina's Smart Start and More at Four (MAF) early childhood programs were evaluated through the end of elementary school (age 11) by estimating the impact of state funding allocations to programs in each of 100 counties across 13 consecutive years on outcomes for all children in each county-year group (n = 1,004,571; 49% female; 61%…

Economic Performance and North Korean Regime Legitimacy

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

Additionally, as of 2009, the World Food Program estimated that approximately one- third of children under five and women suffered from malnourishment...harass women and run over South Korean children .7 If this hypothesis is true, then it is possible that by effectively attacking the other sources of...As Cha and Anderson note, free markets have become the reliable means of survival in North Korea and these “markets create entrepreneurship , and

Flood Frequenices and Bridge and Culvert Sizes for Forested Mountains of North Carolina

Treesearch

James E. Douglass

1974-01-01

A method is presented for predicting flood discharge from the forested Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina for storms at recurrence intervals of 2.33, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 years. These predictions are based on area and maximum elevation of the drainage. Once storm discharge has been estimated, the proper size of culvert can be determined from tables which list...

Forest statistics for North Alabama counties

Treesearch

Arnold Hedlund; J. M. Earles

1972-01-01

This report tabulates information from a new forest inventory of counties in northern Alabama. The tables are intended for use as a source data in compiling estimates for groups of counties. Because the sampling procedure is designed primarily to furnish inventory data for the state as a whole, estimates for individual counties have limited and variable accuracy.

The Effect of Primary School Size on Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gershenson, Seth; Langbein, Laura

2015-01-01

Evidence on optimal school size is mixed. We estimate the effect of transitory changes in school size on the academic achievement of fourth-and fifth-grade students in North Carolina using student-level longitudinal administrative data. Estimates of value-added models that condition on school-specific linear time trends and a variety of…

GPS-based Microenvironment Tracker (MicroTrac) Model to Estimate Time-Location of Individuals for Air Pollution Exposure Assessments: Model Evaluation in Central North Carolina

EPA Science Inventory

A critical aspect of air pollution exposure assessment is the estimation of the time spent by individuals in various microenvironments (ME). Accounting for the time spent in different ME with different pollutant concentrations can reduce exposure misclassifications, while failure...

Farm Population Estimates for 1968.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Banks, Vera; Beale, Calvin L.

Total farm population has continued to decrease; the April 1968 average of 10,454,000 persons reflected an estimated drop of 421,000 since April 1967. The regional distribution remained the same, however, with the largest concentration in the South, about 45 percent, while the North Central Region ranked second with 39 percent. During 1967-1968,…

Setting numerical population objectives for priority landbird species

Treesearch

Kenneth V. Rosenberg; Peter J. Blancher

2005-01-01

Following the example of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan, deriving numerical population estimates and conservation targets for priority landbird species is considered a desirable, if not necessary, element of the Partners in Flight planning process. Methodology for deriving such estimates remains in its infancy, however, and the use of numerical population...

Artemisia L.: sagebrush

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer

2008-01-01

Sagebrush - Artemisia L. - species are probably the most common shrubs in western North America. Big sagebrush alone occupies an estimated 60 million ha as a landscape dominant or codominant in the semiarid interior, and related species of the subgenus Tridentatae are estimated to occupy an additional 50 million ha (Beetle 1960; McArthur and Stevens in press)....

Children Exposed to Drugs: What Policymakers Can Do. SERVE Policy Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Jan

This policy brief addresses the current and future impact of substance abuse by pregnant women on their infants and children. It provides data on incidence estimates in 1985, 1989, 1995, and 2000. Findings of studies in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina provide documentation for varying incidence estimates.…

Canopy Level Emissions of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol, monoterpenes, and sesquiterpenes from a Pinus taeda Experimental Plantation

EPA Science Inventory

Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) observed during 2007 from a Pinus taeda experimental plantation in Central North Carolina are compared with model estimates from MEGAN 2.1. Relaxed Eddy Accumulation (REA) estimates of 2-methyl-3-buten-2-ol (MBO) fluxes are ...

Characteristics of fractures in crystalline bedrock determined by surface and borehole geophysical surveys, eastern surplus superfund site, Meddybemps, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Bruce P.; Stone, Janet Radway; Lane, John W.

1999-01-01

Surface and borehole geophysical methods were used to determine fracture orientation in crystalline bedrock at the Eastern Surplus Superfund Site in Meddybemps, Maine. Fracture-orientation information is needed to address concerns about the fate of contaminants in ground water at the site. Azimuthal square-array resistivity surveys were conducted at 3 locations at the site, borehole-acoustic televiewer and borehole-video logs were collected in 10 wells, and single-hole directional radar surveys were conducted in 9 wells. Borehole-video logs were used to supplement the results of other geophysical techniques and are not described in this report. Analysis of azimuthal square-array resistivity data indicated that high-angle fracturing generally strikes northeast-southwest at the three locations. Borehole-acoustic televiewer logs detected one prominent low-angle and two prominent high-angle fracture sets. The low-angle fractures strike generally north-northeast and dip about 20 degrees west-northwest. One high-angle fracture set strikes north-northeast and dips east-southeast; the other high-angle set strikes east-northeast and dips south-southeast. Single-hole directional radar surveys identified two prominent fracture sets: a low-angle set striking north-northeast, dipping west-northwest; and a high-angle fracture set striking north-northeast, dipping east-southeast. Two additional high-angle fracture sets are defined weakly, one striking east-west, dipping north; and a second striking east-west, dipping south. Integrated results from all of the geophysical surveys indicate the presence of three primary fracture sets. A low-angle set strikes north-northeast and dips west-northwest. Two high-angle sets strike north-northeast and east-northeast and dip east-southeast and south-southeast. Statistical correction of the fracture data for orientation bias indicates that high-angle fractures are more numerous than observed in the data but are still less numerous than the low-angle fractures. The orientation and distribution of water-yielding fractures sets were determined by correlating the fracture data from this study with previously collected borehole-flowmeter data. The water-yielding fractures are generally within the three prominent fracture sets observed for the total fracture population. The low-angle water-yielding fractures primarily strike north-northeast to west-northwest and dip west-northwest to south-southwest. Most of the high-angle water-yielding fractures strike either north-northeast or east-west and dip east-southeast or south. The spacing between water-yielding fractures varies but the probable average spacing is estimated to be 30 feet for low-angle fractures; 27 feet for the east-southeast dipping, high-angle fractures; and 43 feet for the south-southeast dipping, high-angle fractures. The median estimated apparent transmissivity of individual water-yielding fractures or fracture zones was 0.3 feet squared per day and ranged from 0.01 to 382 feet squared per day. Ninety-five percent of the water-yielding fractures or fracture zones had an estimated apparent transmissivity of 19.5 feet squared per day or less. The orientation, spacing, and hydraulic properties of water-yielding fractures identified during this study can be used to help estimate recharge, flow, and discharge of ground water contaminants. High-angle fractures provide vertical pathways for ground water to enter the bedrock, interconnections between low-angle fractures, and, subsequently, pathways for water flow within the bedrock along fracture planes. Low-angle fractures may allow horizontal ground-water flow in all directions. The orientation of fracturing and the hydraulic properties of each fracture set strongly affect changes in ground-water flow under stress (pumping) conditions.

Frontal Eddy Dynamics (FRED) experiment off North Carolina: Volume 2. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebbesmeyer, C.C.

1988-03-01

In preparation for oil and gas lease sales on the outer continental shelf offshore of North Carolina, the Minerals Management Service was requested to investigate the potential transport and impacts of oil spilled offshore. Of particular concern is estimating the movement of spilled oil, especially the probability of shoreward transport and/or beaching of the floatable fraction. Although the speed and location of the Gulf Stream are well known, knowledge of the meanders of the Gulf Stream is limited. How the circulatory structure and movement of associated frontal eddies and filaments affect the North Carolina coastal waters is not clear. Thismore » present study investigates the interactions of these circulatory elements and follows the evolution of frontal eddies as they migrate along the North Carolina coast.« less

Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, M.A.; de Beurs, K. M.; Didan, K.; Inouye, D.W.; Richardson, A.D.; Jensen, O.P.; O'Keefe, J.; Zhang, G.; Nemani, R.R.; van, Leeuwen; Brown, Jesslyn F.; de Wit, A.; Schaepman, M.; Lin, X.; Dettinger, M.; Bailey, A.S.; Kimball, J.; Schwartz, M.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; Lee, J.T.; Lauenroth, W.K.

2009-01-01

Shifts in the timing of spring phenology are a central feature of global change research. Long-term observations of plant phenology have been used to track vegetation responses to climate variability but are often limited to particular species and locations and may not represent synoptic patterns. Satellite remote sensing is instead used for continental to global monitoring. Although numerous methods exist to extract phenological timing, in particular start-of-spring (SOS), from time series of reflectance data, a comprehensive intercomparison and interpretation of SOS methods has not been conducted. Here, we assess 10 SOS methods for North America between 1982 and 2006. The techniques include consistent inputs from the 8 km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer NDVIg dataset, independent data for snow cover, soil thaw, lake ice dynamics, spring streamflow timing, over 16 000 individual measurements of ground-based phenology, and two temperature-driven models of spring phenology. Compared with an ensemble of the 10 SOS methods, we found that individual methods differed in average day-of-year estimates by ±60 days and in standard deviation by ±20 days. The ability of the satellite methods to retrieve SOS estimates was highest in northern latitudes and lowest in arid, tropical, and Mediterranean ecoregions. The ordinal rank of SOS methods varied geographically, as did the relationships between SOS estimates and the cryospheric/hydrologic metrics. Compared with ground observations, SOS estimates were more related to the first leaf and first flowers expanding phenological stages. We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.

Nitrous oxide emissions estimated with the Carbon Tracker Lagrange regional inversion framework suggest the North American source comes predominantly from agricultural regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nevison, C. D.; Andrews, A. E.; Thoning, K. W.; Saikawa, E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Sweeney, C.; Benmergui, J. S.

2016-12-01

The Carbon Tracker Lagrange (CTL) regional inversion framework is used to estimate North American nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of 1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N/yr over 2008-2013. More than half of the North American emissions are estimated to come from the central agricultural belt, extending from southern Canada to Texas, and are strongest in spring and early summer, consistent with a nitrogen fertilizer-driven source. The estimated N2O flux from the Midwestern corn/soybean belt and the more northerly wheat belt corresponds to 5% of synthetic + organic N fertilizer applied to those regions. While earlier regional atmospheric inversion studies have suggested that global inventories such as EDGAR may be underestimating U.S. anthropogenic N2O emissions by a factor of 3 or more, our results, integrated over a full calendar year, are generally consistent with those inventories and with global inverse model results and budget constraints. The CTL framework is a Bayesian method based on footprints from the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model applied to atmospheric N2O data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, including surface, aircraft and tall tower platforms. The CTL inversion results are sensitive to the prescribed boundary condition or background value of N2O, which is estimated based on a new Empirical BackGround (EBG) product derived from STILT back trajectories applied to NOAA data. Analysis of the N2O EBG products suggests a significant, seasonally-varying influence on surface N2O data due to the stratospheric influx of N2O-depleted air. Figure 1. Posterior annual mean N2O emissions for 2010 estimated with the CTL regional inversion framework. The locations of NOAA surface and aircraft data used in the inversion are superimposed as black circles and grey triangles, respectively. Mobile surface sites are indicated with asterisks.

Floods of July 23-26, 2010, in the Little Maquoketa River and Maquoketa River Basins, Northeast Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.

2012-01-01

Minor flooding occurred July 23, 2010, in the Little Maquoketa River Basin and major flooding occurred July 23–26, 2010, in the Maquoketa River Basin in northeast Iowa following severe thunderstorm activity over the region during July 22–24. A breach of the Lake Delhi Dam on July 24 aggravated flooding on the Maquoketa River. Rain gages at Manchester and Strawberry Point, Iowa, recorded 72-hour-rainfall amounts of 7.33 and 12.23 inches, respectively, on July 24. The majority of the rainfall occurred during a 48-hour period. Within the Little Maquoketa River Basin, a peak-discharge estimate of 19,000 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 4 to 10 percent) at the discontinued 05414500 Little Maquoketa River near Durango, Iowa streamgage on July 23 is the sixth largest flood on record. Within the Maquoketa River Basin, peak discharges of 26,600 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 0.2 to 1 percent) at the 05416900 Maquoketa River at Manchester, Iowa streamgage on July 24, and of 25,000 cubic feet per second (annual flood-probability estimate of 1 to 2 percent) at the 05418400 North Fork Maquoketa River near Fulton, Iowa streamgage on July 24 are the largest floods on record for these sites. A peak discharge affected by the Lake Delhi Dam breach on July 24 at the 05418500 Maquoketa River near Maquoketa, Iowa streamgage, located downstream of Lake Delhi, of 46,000 cubic feet per second on July 26 is the third highest on record. High-water marks were measured at five locations along the Little Maquoketa and North Fork Little Maquoketa Rivers between U.S. Highway 52 near Dubuque and County Road Y21 near Rickardsville, a distance of 19 river miles. Highwater marks were measured at 28 locations along the Maquoketa River between U.S. Highway 52 near Green Island and State Highway 187 near Arlington, a distance of 142 river miles. High-water marks were measured at 13 locations along the North Fork Maquoketa River between Rockdale Road near Maquoketa and U.S. Highway 52 near Luxemburg, a distance of 90 river miles. The high-water marks were used to develop flood profiles for the Little Maquoketa, North Fork Little Maquoketa, Maquoketa, and North Fork Maquoketa Rivers.

Characterizing the detectability of emission signals from a North Korean nuclear detonation

DOE PAGES

Werth, David; Buckley, Robert

2017-02-01

Here, the detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously ‘backtrack’ it to its source.

Modeled sulfate concentrations in North Dakota streams, 1993-2008, based on spatial basin characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Modeled sulfate concentrations generally were highest (greater than 750 milligrams per liter) in basins in western North Dakota and lowest (less than 250 milligrams per liter) in basins in the upper Sheyenne River and upper James River. Area-weighted means for the basin characteristics also were computed for 10-digit and 8-digit hydrologic units for streams in North Dakota and modeled sulfate concentrations were computed from the characteristics. The resulting distribution of modeled sulfate concentrations was similar to the distribution of estimates for the 12-digit hydrologic units, but less variable because the basin characteristics were averaged over larger areas.

North-South contraction of the mojave block and strike-slip tectonics in southern california.

PubMed

Bartley, J M; Glazner, A F; Schermer, E R

1990-06-15

The Mojave block of southern California has undergone significant late Cenozoic north-south contraction. This previously unappreciated deformation may account for part of the discrepancy between neotectonic and plate-tectonic estimates of Pacific-North American plate motion, and for part of the Big Bend in the San Andreas fault. In the eastern Mojave block, contraction is superimposed on early Miocene crustal extension. In the western Mojave block, contractional folds and reverse faults have been mistaken for extensional structures. The three-dimensional complexity of the contractional structures may mean that rigid-block tectonic models of the region based primarily on paleomagnetic data are unreliable.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Booth, Ben B B; Dunstone, Nick J; Halloran, Paul R; Andrews, Timothy; Bellouin, Nicolas

2012-04-04

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Rates of Dinitrogen Fixation and the Abundance of Diazotrophs in North American Coastal Waters Between Cape Hatteras and Georges Bank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulholland, M.R.; Bernhardt, P. W.; Blanco-Garcia, J. L.; Mannino, A.; Hyde, K.; Mondragon, E.; Turk, K.; Moisander, P. H.; Zehr, J. P.

2012-01-01

We coupled dinitrogen (N2) fixation rate estimates with molecular biological methods to determine the activity and abundance of diazotrophs in coastal waters along the temperate North American Mid-Atlantic continental shelf during multiple seasons and cruises. Volumetric rates of N2 fixation were as high as 49.8 nmol N L(sup -1) d(sup -1) and areal rates as high as 837.9 micromol N m(sup -2) d(sup -1) in our study area. Our results suggest that N2 fixation occurs at high rates in coastal shelf waters that were previously thought to be unimportant sites of N2 fixation and so were excluded from calculations of pelagic marine N2 fixation. Unicellular N2-fixing group A cyanobacteria were the most abundant diazotrophs in the Atlantic coastal waters and their abundance was comparable to, or higher than, that measured in oceanic regimes where they were discovered. High rates of N2 fixation and the high abundance of diazotrophs along the North American Mid-Atlantic continental shelf highlight the need to revise marine N budgets to include coastal N2 fixation. Integrating areal rates of N2 fixation over the continental shelf area between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia, the estimated N2 fixation in this temperate shelf system is about 0.02 Tmol N yr(sup -1), the amount previously calculated for the entire North Atlantic continental shelf. Additional studies should provide spatially, temporally, and seasonally resolved rate estimates from coastal systems to better constrain N inputs via N2 fixation from the neritic zone.

Domain-averaged, Shallow Precipitation Measurements During the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Luke, E. P.; Kollias, P.; Oue, M.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility operates a fixed observatory in the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) on Graciosa Island in the Azores. Straddling the tropics and extratropics, the Azores receive air transported from North America, the Arctic and sometimes Europe. At the ARM ENA site, marine boundary layer clouds are frequently observed all year round. Estimates of drizzle mass flux from the surface to cloud base height are documented using a combination of high sensitivity profiling 35-GHz radar and ceilometer observations. Three years of drizzle mass flux retrievals reveal that statistically, directly over the ENA site, marine boundary layer cloud drizzle rates tend to be weak with few heavy drizzle events. In the summer of 2017, this site hosted the first phase of the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign, which is motivated by the need for comprehensive in situ characterization of boundary layer structure, low clouds and aerosols. During this phase, the 35-GHz scanning ARM cloud radar was operated as a surveillance radar, providing regional context for the profiling observations. While less sensitive, the scanning radar measurements document a larger number of heavier drizzle events and provide domain-representative estimates of shallow precipitation. A best estimate, domain averaged, shallow precipitation rate for the region around the ARM ENA site is presented. The methodology optimally combines the ability of the profiling observations to detect the weak but frequently occurring drizzle events with the scanning cloud radar's ability to capture the less frequent heavier drizzle events. The technique is also evaluated using high resolution model output and a sophisticated forward radar operator.

Exploiting satellite earth observation to quantify current global oceanic DMS flux and its future climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Land, P. E.; Shutler, J. D.; Bell, T. G.; Yang, M.

2014-11-01

We used coincident Envisat RA2 and AATSR temperature and wind speed data from 2008/2009 to calculate the global net sea-air flux of dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which we estimate to be 19.6 Tg S a-1. Our monthly flux calculations are compared to open ocean eddy correlation measurements of DMS flux from 10 recent cruises, with a root mean square difference of 3.1 μmol m-2 day-1. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied temperature, salinity, surface wind speed, and aqueous DMS concentration, using fixed global changes as well as CMIP5 model output. The range of DMS flux in future climate scenarios is discussed. The CMIP5 model predicts a reduction in surface wind speed and we estimate that this will decrease the global annual sea-air flux of DMS by 22% over 25 years. Concurrent changes in temperature, salinity, and DMS concentration increase the global flux by much smaller amounts. The net effect of all CMIP5 modelled 25 year predictions was a 19% reduction in global DMS flux. 25 year DMS concentration changes had significant regional effects, some positive (Southern Ocean, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific) and some negative (isolated regions along the Equator and in the Indian Ocean). Using satellite-detected coverage of coccolithophore blooms, our estimate of their contribution to North Atlantic DMS emissions suggests that the coccolithophores contribute only a small percentage of the North Atlantic annual flux estimate, but may be more important in the summertime and in the northeast Atlantic.

Limiting Regret: Building the Army We Will Need

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-18

Recently, U.S. and Chinese experts have estimated that the North Koreans may be able to produce enough fissionable plutonium and uranium to build up...long-range missiles, but their recently revealed ability to separate uranium could give them the ability to build gun-assembled fission weapons similar...weapons programs and living up to their international obligations.” 36North Korea has had a uranium enrichment capacity since at least November 2010

Community coverage in a rural, church-based, hypertension screening program in Edgecombe County, North Carolina.

PubMed Central

Strogatz, D S; James, S A; Elliott, D; Ramsey, D; Cutchin, L M; Ibrahim, M A

1985-01-01

In a rural, church-based hypertension program in Edgecombe County, North Carolina, screening of the congregations was complemented by a community outreach component targeted at 18-60 year old males, a group at higher risk for untreated hypertension. Compared with its estimated frequency in the community, untreated hypertension was as common in the church congregations and somewhat less prevalent than expected among outreach screenees. PMID:3976968

Forty-two years of change in an old-growth and second-growth beech-maple forest of north central Ohio

Treesearch

Natalie R. Pinheiro; P. Charles Goebel; David M. Hix

2008-01-01

Using data collected in 1964 and 2006, we examined changes in the composition and structure of a second-growth and old-growth beech-maple forest of Crall Woods, located in Ashland County of north central Ohio. Over the 42 years, the old-growth forest (estimated to be at least 250 years old) experienced a significant shift in species composition as American beech,...

Assessment of undiscovered oil resources in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations, Williston Basin Province, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaswirth, Stephanie B.; Marra, Kristen R.; Cook, Troy A.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Gautier, Donald L.; Higley, Debra K.; Klett, Timothy R.; Lewan, Michael D.; Lillis, Paul G.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Whidden, Katherine J.

2013-01-01

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated mean undiscovered volumes of 7.4 billion barrels of oil, 6.7 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 0.53 billion barrels of natural gas liquids in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations in the Williston Basin Province of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

2017-12-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our results suggest that projected long-term shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern U.S., where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

Virtual versus real water transfers within China.

PubMed

Ma, Jing; Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Wang, Hao; Chapagain, Ashok K; Wang, Dangxian

2006-05-29

North China faces severe water scarcity--more than 40% of the annual renewable water resources are abstracted for human use. Nevertheless, nearly 10% of the water used in agriculture is employed in producing food exported to south China. To compensate for this 'virtual water flow' and to reduce water scarcity in the north, the huge south-north Water Transfer Project is currently being implemented. This paradox--the transfer of huge volumes of water from the water-rich south to the water-poor north versus transfer of substantial volumes of food from the food-sufficient north to the food-deficit south--is receiving increased attention, but the research in this field has not yet reached further than rough estimation and qualitative description. The aim of this paper is to review and quantify the volumes of virtual water flows between the regions in China and to put them in the context of water availability per region. The analysis shows that north China annually exports about 52 billion m3 of water in virtual form to south China, which is more than the maximum proposed water transfer volume along the three routes of the Water Transfer Project from south to north.

Virtual versus real water transfers within China

PubMed Central

Ma, Jing; Hoekstra, Arjen Y; Wang, Hao; Chapagain, Ashok K; Wang, Dangxian

2005-01-01

North China faces severe water scarcity—more than 40% of the annual renewable water resources are abstracted for human use. Nevertheless, nearly 10% of the water used in agriculture is employed in producing food exported to south China. To compensate for this ‘virtual water flow’ and to reduce water scarcity in the north, the huge south–north Water Transfer Project is currently being implemented. This paradox—the transfer of huge volumes of water from the water-rich south to the water-poor north versus transfer of substantial volumes of food from the food-sufficient north to the food-deficit south—is receiving increased attention, but the research in this field has not yet reached further than rough estimation and qualitative description. The aim of this paper is to review and quantify the volumes of virtual water flows between the regions in China and to put them in the context of water availability per region. The analysis shows that north China annually exports about 52 billion m3 of water in virtual form to south China, which is more than the maximum proposed water transfer volume along the three routes of the Water Transfer Project from south to north. PMID:16767828

Infrasound observation of the apparent North Korean nuclear test of 25 May 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Che, Il-Young; Kim, Tae Sung; Jeon, Jeong-Soo; Lee, Hee-Il

2009-11-01

On 25 May 2009, a seismic event (mb 4.6) was recorded from a source in northeastern North Korea, close to the location of a previous seismic event on 9 October 2006. Both events have been declared to be nuclear tests by North Korea. For the more recent test, five seismo-acoustic arrays in South Korea recorded epicentral infrasonic signals. The signals are characterized by amplitudes from 0.16 to 0.35 microbar and dominant frequencies between 0.8 and 4.3 Hz. Celerities determined for the arrivals suggest that most of the infrasonic energy travelled as a stratospheric phase. Based on observed stratospheric amplitudes, the epicentral infrasonic energy was estimated to be equivalent to that expected from 3.0 tons of high explosives detonated on the surface. We conclude that this small energy estimate is due to the atmospheric coupling from the strong surface ground motion rather than the direct transfer of explosion energy to the air. This relatively small infrasonic to seismic energy ratio could be used to distinguish the event from a common surface explosion.

Traffic effects on bird counts on North American Breeding Bird Survey routes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, Emily H.; Sauer, John R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2010-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an annual roadside survey used to estimate population change in >420 species of birds that breed in North America. Roadside sampling has been criticized, in part because traffic noise can interfere with bird counts. Since 1997, data have been collected on the numbers of vehicles that pass during counts at each stop. We assessed the effect of traffic by modeling total vehicles as a covariate of counts in hierarchical Poisson regression models used to estimate population change. We selected species for analysis that represent birds detected at low and high abundance and birds with songs of low and high frequencies. Increases in vehicle counts were associated with decreases in bird counts in most of the species examined. The size and direction of these effects remained relatively constant between two alternative models that we analyzed. Although this analysis indicated only a small effect of incorporating traffic effects when modeling roadside counts of birds, we suggest that continued evaluation of changes in traffic at BBS stops should be a component of future BBS analyses.

Mortality and hematology associated with the ingestion of one number four lead shot in black ducks, Anas rubripes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pain, D.J.; Rattner, B.A.

The black duck (anas rubripes) is a dabbling duck endemic to North America. Since population surveys of this species began in the early 1950's, numbers have declined steadily at the rate of approximately 1.5% a year. In 1980 the North American population was estimated to be only 42% of that recorded in 1952. Several reasons have been suggested for this decline. One environmental contaminant that may be contributing to the decline is spent lead gunshot. The ingestion of gunshot by waterfowl is well documented and is thought to kill an estimated 1.6-3.8 million waterfowl each year in North America. Theremore » has been little research concerning the toxicity of lead gunshot to the black duck and the present significance of lead poisoning as a mortality factor in this species. This study reports the results of an experiment in which captive black ducks were dosed with one number four lead shot. Mortality rates and hematological effects are discussed in relation to lead toxicity.« less

[An essay on Quebec's demographic development from 1534 to 2034].

PubMed

Charbonneau, H

1984-04-01

A general review of the development of the population of Quebec since 1534 is presented in the form of separate summaries for each 50-year period. Topics discussed include sources of data, estimates of the North American Indian population, and estimates of immigration. Some consideration is given to projections to the year 2034. (summary in ENG, SPA)

Emissions of some trace gases from biomass fires

Treesearch

Dean A. Hegg; Lawrence F. Radke; Peter V. Hobbs; Rei A. Rasmussen; Philip J. Riggan

1990-01-01

Airborne measurements of 13 trace gases from seven forest fires in North America are used to determine their average emission factors. The emission factors are then used to estimate the contributions of biomass burning to the worldwide fluxes of these gases. The estimate for NH3 (˜7 Tg N yr-1) is about 50% of the...

Estimating Sedimentation from an Erosion-Hazard Rating

Treesearch

R.M. Rice; S.A. Sherbin

1977-01-01

Data from two watersheds in northern California were used to develop an interpretation of the erosion hazard rating (EHR) of the Coast Forest District as amount of sedimentation. For the Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed (North Fork and South Fork), each EHR unit was estimated as equivalent to 0.0543 cubic yards per acre per year, on undisturbed forest. Experience...

Estimating sedimentation from an erosion-hazard rating

Treesearch

R. M. Rice; S. A. Sherbin

1977-01-01

Data from two watersheds in northern California were used to develop an interpretation of the erosion-hazard rating (EHR) of the Coast Forest District as amount of sedimentation. For the Caspar Creek Experimental Watershed (North Fork and South Fork), each EHR unit was estimated as equivalent to 0.0543 cubic yards per acre per year, on undisturbed forest. Experience...

The Role of Categories and Spatial Cuing in Global-Scale Location Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Alinda

2009-01-01

Seven independent groups estimated the location of North American cities using both spatial and numeric response modes and a variety of perceptual and memory supports. These supports included having location markers for each city color coded by nation and identified by name, giving participants the opportunity to see and update all their estimates…

Heterogeneous occupancy and density estimates of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in waters of North America

Treesearch

Tara Chestnut; Chauncey Anderson; Radu Popa; Andrew R. Blaustein; Mary Voytek; Deanna H. Olson; Julie Kirshtein

2014-01-01

Biodiversity losses are occurring worldwide due to a combination of stressors. For example, by one estimate, 40% of amphibian species are vulnerable to extinction, and disease is one threat to amphibian populations. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a contributor to amphibian declines...

Nutrient loading to Lewisville Lake, north-central Texas, 1984-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gain, W.S.; Baldys, Stanley

1995-01-01

The estimated long-term (1974-89 water years) average annual total nitrogen load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 11,800 pounds per day. The estimated long-term (1974 89 water years) average annual total phosphorus load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 1,100 pounds per day.

Magnesium compounds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kramer, D.A.

2006-01-01

In 2005, seawater and natural brines accounted for 51% of US magnesium compounds production. World magnesia production was estimated to be 14.5 Mt. Most of the production came from China, North Korea, Russia and Turkey. Although no specific production figures are available, Japan and the United States are estimated to account for almost one-half of the world's capacity from seawater and brines.

Population Estimates, Conservation Concerns, and Management of Tropicbirds in the Western Atlantic

Treesearch

DAVID S. LEE; MARTHA WALSH-MCGEHEE

2000-01-01

Two species of tropicbirds (Phaethontidae) live in the Western North Atlantic. The Whitetailed Tropicbird of the region is an endemic race, Phaethon lepturus catesbyi, with approximately 5000 pairs. This is half the estimate made less than two decades ago. The Red-billed Tropicbird, P. aethereus, has approximately 2000 pairs regionally and fewer than 8000 pairs...

Evaluations of alternative methods for monitoring and estimating responses of salmon productivity in the North Pacific to future climatic change and other processes: A simulation study

EPA Science Inventory

Estimation of the relative influence of climate change, compared to other human activities, on dynamics of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations can help management agencies take appropriate management actions. We used empirically based simulation modelling of 48 sockeye...

Duck nest success in the prairie pothole region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, A.T.; Shaffer, T.L.; Johnson, D.H.

1988-01-01

We estimated nest success of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (A. strepera), blue-winged teal (A. discors), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), and northern pintail (A. acuta) for 5 regions in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, for 1-3 periods between 1966 and 1984, and for 8 habitat classes. We obtained composite estimates of nest success for regions and periods by weighting each habitat proportional to the number of nest initiations. The distribution of nest initiations was derived from estimates of breeding populations, preferences of species for nesting habitats, and availability of habitats. Nest success rates ranged from < 5 to 36% among regions, periods, and species. Rates were lowest in western Minnesota (MNW) and eastern North Dakota (NDE), intermediate in central North Dakota (NDC) and eastern South Dakota (SDE), and highest in central South Dakota (SDC). In regions with comparable data, no consistent trend in nest success was apparent from early to late periods. Gadwalls and blue-winged teal nested more successfully than mallards and pintails; the relative success of shovelers varied regionally. Ducks nesting in idle grassland were the most successful and those nesting in cropland were least successful. Mammalian predation was the major cause of nesting failure (54-85%) in all habitats, but farming operations resulted in 37 and 27% of the nesting failures in cropland and hayland, respectively. Most of the populations studied were not self-sustaining.

Performance Enhancement for a GPS Vector-Tracking Loop Utilizing an Adaptive Iterated Extended Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiyuan; Wang, Xiying; Xu, Yuan

2014-01-01

This paper deals with the problem of state estimation for the vector-tracking loop of a software-defined Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. For a nonlinear system that has the model error and white Gaussian noise, a noise statistics estimator is used to estimate the model error, and based on this, a modified iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF) named adaptive iterated Kalman filter (AIEKF) is proposed. A vector-tracking GPS receiver utilizing AIEKF is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Through road tests, it is shown that the proposed method has an obvious accuracy advantage over the IEKF and Adaptive Extended Kalman filter (AEKF) in position determination. The results show that the proposed method is effective to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of position (including longitude, latitude and altitude). Comparing with EKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 45.1%, 40.9% and 54.6% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Comparing with IEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 25.7%, 19.3% and 35.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Compared with AEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 21.6%, 15.5% and 30.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. PMID:25502124

Performance enhancement for a GPS vector-tracking loop utilizing an adaptive iterated extended Kalman filter.

PubMed

Chen, Xiyuan; Wang, Xiying; Xu, Yuan

2014-12-09

This paper deals with the problem of state estimation for the vector-tracking loop of a software-defined Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver. For a nonlinear system that has the model error and white Gaussian noise, a noise statistics estimator is used to estimate the model error, and based on this, a modified iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF) named adaptive iterated Kalman filter (AIEKF) is proposed. A vector-tracking GPS receiver utilizing AIEKF is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Through road tests, it is shown that the proposed method has an obvious accuracy advantage over the IEKF and Adaptive Extended Kalman filter (AEKF) in position determination. The results show that the proposed method is effective to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of position (including longitude, latitude and altitude). Comparing with EKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 45.1%, 40.9% and 54.6% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Comparing with IEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 25.7%, 19.3% and 35.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively. Compared with AEKF, the position RMSE values of AIEKF are reduced by about 21.6%, 15.5% and 30.7% in the east, north and up directions, respectively.

Estimating Oceanic Primary Production Using Vertical Irradiance and Chlorophyll Profiles from Ocean Gliders in the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Hemsley, Victoria S; Smyth, Timothy J; Martin, Adrian P; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Thompson, Andrew F; Damerell, Gillian; Painter, Stuart C

2015-10-06

An autonomous underwater vehicle (Seaglider) has been used to estimate marine primary production (PP) using a combination of irradiance and fluorescence vertical profiles. This method provides estimates for depth-resolved and temporally evolving PP on fine spatial scales in the absence of ship-based calibrations. We describe techniques to correct for known issues associated with long autonomous deployments such as sensor calibration drift and fluorescence quenching. Comparisons were made between the Seaglider, stable isotope ((13)C), and satellite estimates of PP. The Seaglider-based PP estimates were comparable to both satellite estimates and stable isotope measurements.

Surface waters of North Boggy Creek basin in the Muddy Boggy Creek basin in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laine, L.L.

1958-01-01

Analysis of short-term streamflow data in North Boggy Creek basin indicates that the average runoff in this region is substantial. The streamflow is highly variable from year to year and from month to month. The estimated total yield from the North Boggy Creek watershed of 231 square miles averages 155,000 acre-feet annually, equivalent to an average runoff depth of 12 1/2 inches. Almost a fourth of the annual volume is contributed by Chickasaw Creek basin, where about 35,000 acre-feet runs off from 46 square miles. Two years of records show a variation in runoff for the calendar year 1957 in comparison to 1956 in a ratio of 13 to 1 for the station on North Boggy Creek and a ratio of 18 to 1 for the station on Chickasaw Creek. In a longer-term record downstream on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris, the corresponding range was 17 to 1, while the calendar years 1945 and 1956 show a 20-fold variation in runoff. Within a year the higher runoff tends to occur in the spring months, April to June, a 3-month period that, on the average, accounts for at least half of the annual flow. High runoff may occur during any month in the year, but in general, the streamflow is relatively small in the summer. Records for the gaging stations noted indicate that there is little or no base flow in the summer, and thus there will be periods of no flow at times in most years. The variation in runoff during a year is suggested by a frequency analysis of low flows at the reference station on Muddy Boggy Creek near Farris. Although the mean flow at that site is 955 cfs (cubic feet per second), the median daily flow is only 59 cfs and the lowest 30-day flow in a year will average less than 1 cfs in 4 out of 10 years on the average. The estimated mean flow on North Boggy Creek near Stringtown is 124 cfs, but the estimated median daily flow is only 3 1/2 cfs. Because of the high variability in streamflow, development of storage by impoundment will be necessary to attain maximum utilization of the available water supplies in this region. The surface waters of the North Boggy Creek basin are of excellent quality, being suitable for municipal, agricultural and most industrial uses. The concentration of the dissolved mineral content is usually about 75 ppm (parts per million) and the hardness about 50 ppm. The water is slightly acidic, with a range of pH values from 6.5 to 7.0. This report gives the estimated average discharge at gaging stations and 3 selected other sites in the basin for the 16-year period October 1938 to September 1954, used as a base period in this report. Duration-of-flow data for selected percentages of the time are shown for the period of observed record on North Boggy and Chickasaw Creeks; similar data are estimated for the base period 1938-54. The basic records in the basin are presented on a monthly and annual basis (through March 1958). For other sites at which discharge measurements have been made, a tabulation of observed discharge is given. These data have been correlated to obtain information on the low-water portion of the duration curves at 2 of the sites. (available as photostat copy only)

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solokiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J. M.; Bailey, J. C.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D. J.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2012-01-01

Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap ("Mutual Climatic Range"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 530 woody plant taxa and eight climatic parameters in North America. Here we present examples of how these data can be used to obtain paleoclimatic estimates from botanical data in a straightforward, simple, and robust fashion. We also include matrices of climate parameter versus occurrence or nonoccurrence of the individual taxa. These relations are depicted graphically as histograms of the population distributions of the occurrences of a given taxon plotted against a given climatic parameter. This provides a new method for quantification of paleoclimatic parameters from fossil plant assemblages.

Replacement cost valuation of Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) subsistence harvest in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goldstein, Joshua H.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Dubovsky, James A.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Semmens, Darius J.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.

2014-01-01

Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement cost was ˜$63,000 yr−1 ($2010 USD), with sub-regional values ranging from \\$263 yr−1 to \\$21,930 yr−1. Our results provide an order-of-magnitude, conservative estimate of one component of the regional ecosystem-service values of pintails, providing perspective on how spatially explicit values can inform migratory species conservation.

A new Grid Product of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation (TCP) for North America from 1930 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

We first developed a new method that collects daily TCP by using historical storm tracks and precipitation observation based on daily rain gauges in both U.S. and Mexico and calibrated it with satellite precipitation observation. We used a parametrized wind field to correct the possible under-estimations of precipitation in rain gauges. Grid interpolation parameters were optimized by testing different historical rain gauge densities and comparing our grid estimation of TCP and the observation from TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (3B42) by for the data available period from 1998 to 2013. The calibrated method was then used for the whole 94 years of TCP estimation. The preliminary result shows that the frequency of TCP events does not have significant change but the TCP intensity has significant increasing trends, especially in certain locations in North Carolina and Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. This new long term TCP climatology can potentially assist model calibration and disaster prevention/mitigation.

Avian fatalities at wind energy facilities in North America: A comparison of recent approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Loss, Scott R.; Smallwood, K. Shawn; Erickson, Wallace P.

2016-01-01

Three recent publications have estimated the number of birds killed each year by wind energy facilities at 2012 build-out levels in the United States. The 3 publications differ in scope, methodology, and resulting estimates. We compare and contrast characteristics of the approaches used in the publications. In addition, we describe decisions made in obtaining the estimates that were produced. Despite variation in the 3 approaches, resulting estimates were reasonably similar; about a quarter- to a half-million birds are killed per year by colliding with wind turbines.

Age and geodynamic setting of the formation of the dess gold-silver deposit (North Stanovoi metallogenic zone, southeastern fringes of the North Asian Craton)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchko, I. V.; Sorokin, A. A.; Ponomarchuk, V. A.; Travin, A. V.; Sorokin, A. P.; Buchko, Ir. V.

2010-12-01

This article discusses the results of 40Ar/39Ar geochronological studies on the age of the gold-silver mineralization of the Dess occurrence hosted by the granitoids of the Tynda-Bakaran rock complex, which is 129-128 Ma. This estimate coincides with the time of the formation of the Mo mineralization (125-122 Ma) hosted by the rocks of the same rock complex. This allows dating the Au-Ag and Mo mineralizations from the same ore formation period that manifests itself in the granitoids of the North Stanovoi metallogenic belt that were formed in the environment of a transform continental margin. There exists the following sequence of changes in the mineral occurrences from the south to the north: Au-Ag-Au-Mo(Au).

Transport and Thermohaline Structure in the Western Tropical North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schonau, Martha Coakley

Transport and thermohaline structure of water masses and their respective variability are observed and modeled in the western tropical North Pacific using autonomous underwater gliders, Argo climatology and a numerical ocean state estimate. The North Equatorial Current (NEC) advects subtropical and subpolar water masses into the region that are transported equatorward by the Mindanao Current (MC). Continuous glider observations of these two currents from June 2009 to December 2013 provide absolute geostrophic velocity, water mass structure, and transport. The observations are compared to Argo climatology (Roemmich and Gilson, 2009), wind and precipitation to assess forcing, and annual and interannual variability. Observations are assimilated into a regional ocean state estimate (1/6°) to examine regional transport variability and its relationship to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena (ENSO). The NEC, described in Chapter 1, is observed along 134.3°E, from 8.5°N to 16.5°N. NEC thermocline transport is relatively constant, with a variable subthermocline transport that is distinguished by countercurrents centered at 9.6°N and 13.1°N. Correlation between thermocline and subthermocline transport is strong. Isopycnals with subducted water masses, the North Pacific Tropical Water and North Pacific Intermediate Water, have the greatest fine-scale thermohaline variance. The NEC advects water masses into the MC, described in Chapter 2, that flows equatorward along the coast of Mindanao. Gliders observed the MC at a mean latitude of 8.5°N. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC) persists in the subthermocline offshore of the MC, with a net poleward transport of intermediate water typical of South Pacific origin. The variable subthermocline transport in the MC/MUC has an inverse linear relationship with the Nino 3.4 index and strongly impacts total transport variability. For each the MC and NEC, surface salinity and thermocline depth have a strong relationship with ENSO, and there is relationship between the fine-scale and large-scale isopycnal thermohaline structure. In Chapter 3, a numerical ocean state estimates shows strong interannual variability of regional transport with ENSO. Prior to mature ENSO events, transport in each the NEC, MC and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) increase. The increase is from meridional gradients in isopycnal depth related to interannual wind anomalies.

Mitogenomic Phylogenetics of Fin Whales (Balaenoptera physalus spp.): Genetic Evidence for Revision of Subspecies

PubMed Central

Archer, Frederick I.; Morin, Phillip A.; Hancock-Hanser, Brittany L.; Robertson, Kelly M.; Leslie, Matthew S.; Bérubé, Martine; Panigada, Simone; Taylor, Barbara L.

2013-01-01

There are three described subspecies of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus): B. p. physalus Linnaeus, 1758 in the Northern Hemisphere, B. p. quoyi Fischer, 1829 in the Southern Hemisphere, and a recently described pygmy form, B. p. patachonica Burmeister, 1865. The discrete distribution in the North Pacific and North Atlantic raises the question of whether a single Northern Hemisphere subspecies is valid. We assess phylogenetic patterns using ∼16 K base pairs of the complete mitogenome for 154 fin whales from the North Pacific, North Atlantic - including the Mediterranean Sea - and Southern Hemisphere. A Bayesian tree of the resulting 136 haplotypes revealed several well-supported clades representing each ocean basin, with no haplotypes shared among ocean basins. The North Atlantic haplotypes (n = 12) form a sister clade to those from the Southern Hemisphere (n = 42). The estimated time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for this Atlantic/Southern Hemisphere clade and 81 of the 97 samples from the North Pacific was approximately 2 Ma. 14 of the remaining North Pacific samples formed a well-supported clade within the Southern Hemisphere. The TMRCA for this node suggests that at least one female from the Southern Hemisphere immigrated to the North Pacific approximately 0.37 Ma. These results provide strong evidence that North Pacific and North Atlantic fin whales should not be considered the same subspecies, and suggest the need for revision of the global taxonomy of the species. PMID:23691042

Wetlands Research Program. Corps of Engineers Wetlands Delineation Manual. Appendix C. Sections 1 and 2. Region 4 - North Plains.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-01-01

wetlands, are as follows: Category Symbol Definition OBLIGATE WETLAND OBL Plants that occur almost always PLANTS (estimated probability >.992) in...estimated probability 1% to 33%) in nonwetlands. FACULTATIVE PLANTS FAC Plants with a similar likelihood (estimated probability 337 to 67%) of... Symbols Symbols appearing in the list under the indicator status column are as follows: +: A "+" sign following an indicator status denotes that the

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Maximizing mitigation benefits : project summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-30

The research team: : - Reviewed methods, techniques, and : processes at select state DOTs for estimating : mitigations costs for the following states: : Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, New : York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, : Pennsylvania,...

Assessing removals for North Central forest inventories.

Treesearch

W. Brad Smith

1991-01-01

Discusses method used by the Forest Inventory and Analysis Unit for estimating timber removals. Presents the relationship of timber utilization studies, primary lumber mill studies, and forest inventory data.

Age-related reproduction in striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) in the upper Midwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, Raymond J.; Sargeant, Alan B.

1994-01-01

Reproductive data from the upper Midwest are meager for the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), a common North American carnivore. We provide data on some age-related reproductive attributes of 178 female striped skunks collected at 19 sites in eastcentral North Dakota and westcentral Minnesota in 1979–1981 and 1987–1991. Seventy-four percent of the females were 1 year old; 95% were pregnant or parous when collected. Thirteen of 873 (1.5%) embryos in 123 pregnant females were being resorbed. The overall mean (±1 SE) litter size estimated from live embryos was 7.2 ± 0.4. Means of litter-size estimates were similar for females ≥1 year old, but annual estimates of litter size differed among years for all females combined. For females from the interval 1979–1981 and 1990, the mean implantation date based on embryo size was 4 March (±1.6 days). Potential litters were composed of a mean of 55 ± 3% females. Estimates of litter size based on counts of corpora lutea averaged 0.9 young per female less than estimates for the same females based on counts of live embryos, indicating that some skunks may have produced polyovular follicles or identical twins.

Estimation of mean sea surfaces in the North Atlantic, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean using GEOS-3 altimeter data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, J. G.; Martin, T. V.; Mccarthy, J. J.; Chovitz, P. J.

1979-01-01

The sea surface heights above the reference ellipsoid were determined for several regions of the world's ocean using data from the radar altimeter on board the GEOS-3 satellite in conjunction with precise orbital position information derived from laser data. The resolution of the estimated sea surfaces varied from 0.25 degrees off the east coast of the United States to about 2 degrees in the Indian Ocean near Australia. The rms crossover discrepancy after adjustment varied from 30 cm to 70 cm depending on geographic location. Comparison of the altimeter derived mean sea surface in the North Atlantic with the 5 x 5 ft GEM-8 detailed gravimetric geoid indicated a relative consistency of better than one meter.

Seasonal distribution and aerial surveys of mountain goats in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt; Beirne, Katherine; Happe, Patricia; Hoffman, Roger; Rice, Cliff; Schaberl, Jim

2011-01-01

We described the seasonal distribution of Geographic Positioning System (GPS)-collared mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks to evaluate aerial survey sampling designs and provide general information for park managers. This work complemented a companion study published elsewhere of aerial detection biases of mountain goat surveys in western Washington. Specific objectives reported here were to determine seasonal and altitudinal movements, home range distributions, and temporal dynamics of mountain goat movements in and out of aerial survey sampling frames established within each park. We captured 25 mountain goats in Mount Rainier (9), North Cascades (5), and Olympic (11) National Parks, and fitted them with GPS-collars programmed to obtain 6-8 locations daily. We obtained location data on 23 mountain goats for a range of 39-751 days from 2003 to 2008. Altitudinal distributions of GPS-collared mountain goats varied individually and seasonally, but median altitudes used by individual goats during winter ranged from 817 to 1,541 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,215 to 1,787 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. Median altitudes used by GPS-collared goats during summer ranged from 1,312 to 1,819 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,780 to 2,061 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. GPS-collared mountain goats generally moved from low-altitude winter ranges to high-altitude summer ranges between June 11 and June 19 (range April 24-July 3) and from summer to winter ranges between October 26 and November 9 (range September 11-December 23). Seasonal home ranges (95 percent of adaptive kernel utilization distribution) of males and female mountain goats were highly variable, ranging from 1.6 to 37.0 kilometers during summers and 0.7 to 9.5 kilometers during winters. Locations of GPS-collared mountain goats were almost 100 percent within the sampling frame used for mountain goat surveys in Mount Rainier National Park, whereas generally greater than 80 and greater than 60 percent of locations were within sampling units delineated in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks, respectively. Presence of GPS-collared mountain goats within the sampling frame of Olympic National Park varied by diurnal period (midday versus crepuscular), survey season (July versus September), and the interaction of diurnal period and survey season. Aerial surveys conducted in developing a sightability model for mountain goat aerial surveys indicated mean detection probabilities of 0.69, 0.76, and 0.87 in North Cascades, Olympic, and Mount Rainier National Parks, respectively. Higher detection probabilities in Mount Rainier likely reflected larger group sizes and more open habitat conditions than in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks. Use of sightability models will reduce biases of population estimates in each park, but resulting population estimates must still be considered minimum population estimates in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks because the current sampling frames do not encompass those populations completely. Because mountain goats were reliably present within the sampling frame in Mount Rainier National Park, we found no compelling need to adjust mountain goat survey boundaries in that park. Expanding survey coverage in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks to more reliably encompass the altitudinal distribution of mountain goats during summer would enhance population estimation accuracy in the future. Lowering the altitude boundary of mountain goat survey units by as little as 100 meters to 1,425 meters in Olympic National Park would increase mountain goat presence within the survey and reduce variation in counts related to movements of mountain goats outside the survey boundaries.

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Sud Province, north-central Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brownfield, M.E.; Klett, T.R.; Schenk, C.J.; Charpentier, R.R.; Cook, T.A.; Pollastro, R.M.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2011-01-01

The Sud Province located in north-central Africa recently was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 7.31 billion barrels of oil, 13.42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 353 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Chad Basin Province, North-Central Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brownfield, Michael E.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Klett, Timothy R.; Cook, Troy A.; Pollastro, Richard M.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.

2010-01-01

The Chad Basin Province located in north-central Africa recently was assessed for undiscovered, technically recoverable oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) World Oil and Gas Assessment. Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the USGS estimated mean volumes of 2.32 billion barrels of oil, 14.65 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 391 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

Establishment of a Rubella Screening and Immunization Program at the US Army Community Hospital, Fort Carson, Colorado

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-04-01

highlighted the October 31, 1980 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 1 2 Nosocomial Rubella Infection in North Dakota, Alabama, and Ohio (January 9, 1981...studies of pregnancies complicated by maternal rubella during the first trisemester iave estimated the risk of congenital infection to be as high as 50...Education, and Welfare, Center for Disease Control, " Nosocomial Rubella Infection - North Dakota, Alabama, Ohio," Morbidity and Mortality Weekly

Still life with less: North Korean young adult defectors in South Korea show continued poor nutrition and physique.

PubMed

Choi, Seul Ki; Park, Sang Min; Joung, Hyojee

2010-04-01

North Korean defectors who settle in South Korea have experienced severe food shortage and transition of food environment which could affect their health status. However, little is known about their anthropometric measurements and dietary intake after settlement in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to compare anthropometric measurements and dietary intake between North Korean young adults who defected to South Korea and those of South Koreans. We hypothesized that North Korean young adults' physiques and dietary intake would be poorer than that of South Koreans. We compared anthropometric measurements and dietary intake from 3-day food records in a cross-sectional study of 103 North Korean young adult defectors, aged 12 to 24 and 309 South Korean subjects. North Korean subjects were significantly shorter (4.9 to 10.8 cm) and lighter (6.0 to 12.5 kg) than the control group. Body mass index were significantly different between North and South Korean groups only in men. North Korean young adult defectors had lower mean daily intakes of energy and most nutrients and food groups compared to the control group, while North Korean subjects had higher nutrient density diet than that of South Koreans. The proportion of subjects who had dietary intakes of nutrients of less than the Estimated Average Requirement was higher in North Korean subjects than in controls except for in the cases of vitamin A and vitamin C. In conclusion, we recommend providing nutrition support programs for North Korean young adult defectors to secure adequate nutrient intake.

North American prairie wetlands are important nonforested land-based carbon storage sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euliss, N.H.; Gleason, R.A.; Olness, A.; McDougal, R.L.; Murkin, H.R.; Robarts, R.D.; Bourbonniere, R.A.; Warner, B.G.

2006-01-01

We evaluated the potential of prairie wetlands in North America as carbon sinks. Agricultural conversion has resulted in the average loss of 10.1 Mg ha- 1 of soil organic carbon on over 16 million ha of wetlands in this region. Wetland restoration has potential to sequester 378 Tg of organic carbon over a 10-year period. Wetlands can sequester over twice the organic carbon as no-till cropland on only about 17% of the total land area in the region. We estimate that wetland restoration has potential to offset 2.4% of the annual fossil CO2 emission reported for North America in 1990. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Infrared polar brightenings on Jupiter. V - A thermal equilibrium model for the north polar hot spot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halthore, Rangasayi; Burrows, Adam; Caldwell, John

1988-01-01

Voyager IRIS instrument records of the IR hydrocarbon emissions from Jupiter's north polar region are presently studied to determine the spatial and other characteristics of the north polar hot spot. Attention is given to a thermal equilibrium model that exploits the asymmetry found in 7.8-micron emission of stratospheric methane with respect to system III longitude in order to estimate stratospheric zonal wind velocity. This model accurately predicts the observed asymmetry in acetylene's 13.6-micron emission; this requires, however, enhanced acetylene abundance in the hot spot, as well as ethane depletion. Energetic charged particles are suggested to be the most probable cause of these effects.

Flood of July 1-2, 1987, in north-central Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mayo, R.I.; Mangus, J.P.

1989-01-01

During the night of July 1 and early morning of July 2, 1987, an intense summer storm produced flooding on headwater streams of the Scioto, Sandusky, and Mohican River in north-central Ohio. The heaviest flooding and resulting flood damage occurred in a five-county area in the north-central part of the state. From 3 to nearby 6 inches of rain fell in less than 10 hours on rain-saturated soil, and produced flooding that resulted in more than $20 million in damages. Estimated peak discharged for several of the small streams affected ranged from 1 to 2 1/2 times the magnitude of the 50-year flood of these sites.

Aerosols from overseas rival domestic emissions over North America.

PubMed

Yu, Hongbin; Remer, Lorraine A; Chin, Mian; Bian, Huisheng; Tan, Qian; Yuan, Tianle; Zhang, Yan

2012-08-03

Many types of aerosols have lifetimes long enough for their transcontinental transport, making them potentially important contributors to air quality and climate change in remote locations. We estimate that the mass of aerosols arriving at North American shores from overseas is comparable with the total mass of particulates emitted domestically. Curbing domestic emissions of particulates and precursor gases, therefore, is not sufficient to mitigate aerosol impacts in North America. The imported contribution is dominated by dust leaving Asia, not by combustion-generated particles. Thus, even a reduction of industrial emissions of the emerging economies of Asia could be overwhelmed by an increase of dust emissions due to changes in meteorological conditions and potential desertification.

Red fox predation on breeding ducks in midcontinent North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sargeant, Alan B.; Allen, Stephen H.; Eberhardt, Robert T.

1984-01-01

Red fox (Vulpes vulpes) predation on nesting ducks was assessed by examining 1,857 adult duck remains found at 1,432 fox rearing dens from 1968 to 1973. Dabbling ducks were much more vulnerable to foxes than diving ducks. Dabbling ducks (1,798) found at dens consisted of 27% blue-winged teals (Anas discors), 23% mallards (A. platyrhynchos), 20% northern pintails (A. acuta), 9% northern shovelers (Spatula clypeata), 8% gadwalls (A. strepera), 3% green-winged teals (A. crecca), 2% American wigeons (A. americana), and 10% unidentified. Relative abundance of individual species and nesting chronology were the most important factors affecting composition of ducks taken by foxes. Seventy-six percent of 1,376 adult dabbling ducks and 40% of 30 adult diving ducks for which sex was determined were hens. In western North Dakota and western South Dakota, 65% of mallard and northern pintail remains found at dens were hens compared with 76% in eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota (P < 0.05). Percentage hens varied among the 5 most common dabbling ducks found at dens. In eastern North Dakota and eastern South Dakota, where predation on ducks was greatest, an average of 64% of gadwall, 73% of northern pintail, 81% of blue-winged teal, 81% of mallard, and 90% of northern shoveler remains found at dens were hens. Percentage hens among duck remains found at dens increased as the duck nesting season progressed. Numbers of adult ducks found at individual dens ranged from 0 to 67. The average number of ducks found in and around den entrances was used as an index of fox predation rates on ducks. Predation rate indices ranged from 0.01 duck/den in Iowa to 1.80 ducks/den in eastern North Dakota. Average annual predation rate indices for dabbling ducks in a 3-county intensive study area in eastern North Dakota were closely correlated with May pond numbers (r = 0.874, P < 0.10) and duck population size (r = 0.930, P < 0.05), but all species were not affected in the same manner or to the same degree. Drought had least effect on populations and predation rate indices of mallards and gadwalls and had greatest effect on those of northern pintails and northern shovelers. Hens of early nesting species were more vulnerable to foxes than hens of late nesting species. Predation rate indices were expanded to estimate total numbers of ducks taken by fox families during the denning season. Estimated numbers of dabbling ducks taken annually by individual fox families in 2 physiographic regions comprising the intensive study area ranged from 16.1 to 65.9. Predation was highest during wet years and lowest during dry years and averaged lower, but was more variable, in the region where tillage was greatest and wetland water levels were least stable. Predation in the intensive study area averaged 2.97 adult dabbling ducks/ km2/year and represented an estimated average annual loss of 13.5% of hen and 4.5% of drake populations in that area. Of 5,402 individual food items found at dens in the intensive study area, 24% were adult ducks. Ducks made up an estimated maximum average of 16% of the prey biomass required by fox families during the denning season. The average annual take of adult ducks by foxes in the midcontinent area was estimated to be about 900,000. This estimate included both scavenged and fox-killed ducks, as well as ducks taken after the denning season. Fox impact on midcontinent ducks was greatest in eastern North Dakota where both fox and duck densities were relatively high. Predation in that area was likely increased by environmental factors, especially intensive agriculture that concentrated nesting and reduced prey abundance. Predation by red foxes and other predators severely reduces duck production in the midcontinent area. Effective management to increase waterfowl production will necessitate coping with or reducing high levels of predation.

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006: Volume 2, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis; Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2009-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. In North Carolina, annual peak-flow data available through September 2006 were available for 584 sites; 402 of these sites had a total of 10 or more years of systematic record that is required for at-site, flood-frequency analysis. Following data reviews and the computation of 20 physical and climatic basin characteristics for each station as well as at-site flood-frequency statistics, annual peak-flow data were identified for 363 sites in North Carolina suitable for use in this analysis. Among these 363 sites, 19 sites had records that could be divided into unregulated and regulated/ channelized annual peak discharges, which means peak-flow records were identified for a total of 382 cases in North Carolina. Considering the 382 cases, at-site flood-frequency statistics are provided for 333 unregulated cases (also used for the regression database) and 49 regulated/channelized cases. The flood-frequency statistics for the 333 unregulated sites were combined with data for sites from South Carolina, Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia to create a database of 943 sites considered for use in the regional regression analysis. Flood-frequency statistics were computed by fitting logarithms (base 10) of the annual peak flows to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation process, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 sites resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 gaged stations were combined to form the final database that was used in the regional regression analysis. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged, basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and the percentage of drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Discharge estimates determined from the systematic records for the current study are, on average, larger in magnitude than those from a previous study for the highest percent chance exceedances (50 and 20 percent) and tend to be smaller than those from the previous study for the lower percent chance exceedances when all sites are considered as a group. For example, mean differences for sites in the Piedmont hydrologic region range from positive 0.5 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 4.6 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow when stations are grouped by hydrologic region. Similarly for the same hydrologic region, median differences range from positive 0.9 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 7.1 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow. However, mean and median percentage differences between the estimates from the previous and curre

Contrasting natural regeneration and tree planting in fourteen North American cities

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

2012-01-01

Field data from randomly located plots in 12 cities in the United States and Canada were used to estimate the proportion of the existing tree population that was planted or occurred via natural regeneration. In addition, two cities (Baltimore and Syracuse) were recently re-sampled to estimate the proportion of newly established trees that were planted. Results for the...

Estimating biomass of shrubs and forbs in central Washington Douglas-fir stands.

Treesearch

Craig M. Olson; Robert E. Martin

1981-01-01

Understory plants in closed 70-year-old even-aged Douglas-fir stands in north central Washington were destructively sampled to determine the relationship of ground cover and height to dry weight. Weight of plant material can be estimated from the product of plant height and percentage of ground cover on 50- x 100-centimeter (cm) quadrats. Correlation coefficients for...

Preference heterogeneity in a count data model of demand for off-highway vehicle recreation

Treesearch

Thomas P Holmes; Jeffrey E Englin

2010-01-01

This paper examines heterogeneity in the preferences for OHV recreation by applying the random parameters Poisson model to a data set of off-highway vehicle (OHV) users at four National Forest sites in North Carolina. The analysis develops estimates of individual consumer surplus and finds that estimates are systematically affected by the random parameter specification...

Fish assemblage production estimates in Appalachian streams across a latitudinal and temperature gradient

Treesearch

Bonnie J.E. Myers; C. Andrew Dolloff; Jackson R. Webster; Keith H. Nislow; Brandon Fair; Andrew L. Rypel

2017-01-01

Production of biomass is central to the ecology and sustainability of fish assemblages. The goal of this study was to empirically estimate and compare fish assemblage production, production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios and species composition for 25 second- to third-order streams spanning the Appalachian Mountains (from Vermont to North Carolina) that vary in their...

78 FR 12705 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; North and South Atlantic 2013 Commercial Swordfish Quotas

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... dead discards. We will adjust the quotas in the final rule based on updated data, including dead... quota, the sum of updated landings data (from late reports) and dead discard estimates would need to reach or exceed 475 mt dw. In 2011, dead discards were estimated to equal 101.5 mt dw and late reports...

School Crowding, Year-Round Schooling, and Mobile Classroom Use: Evidence from North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMullen, Steven C.; Rouse, Kathryn E.

2012-01-01

This study exploits a unique policy environment and a large panel dataset to evaluate the impact of school crowding on student achievement in Wake County, NC. We also estimate the effects of two education policy initiatives that are often used to address crowding: multi-track year-round calendars and mobile classrooms. We estimate a multi-level…

Forest biomass estimated from MODIS and FIA data in the Lake States: MN, WI and MI, USA

Treesearch

Daolan Zheng; Linda S. Heath; Mark J. Ducey

2007-01-01

This study linked the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data through empirical models established using high-resolution Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus observations to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) in three Lake States in the north-central USA. While means obtained from larger sample sizes...

Modeling precipitation-runoff relationships to determine water yield from a ponderosa pine forest watershed

Treesearch

Assefa S. Desta

2006-01-01

A stochastic precipitation-runoff modeling is used to estimate a cold and warm-seasons water yield from a ponderosa pine forested watershed in the north-central Arizona. The model consists of two parts namely, simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation using a stochastic, event-based approach and estimation of water yield from the watershed...

Probabilistic description of probable maximum precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Alaya, Mohamed Ali; Zwiers, Francis W.; Zhang, Xuebin

2017-04-01

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the key parameter used to estimate probable Maximum Flood (PMF). PMP and PMF are important for dam safety and civil engineering purposes. Even if the current knowledge of storm mechanisms remains insufficient to properly evaluate limiting values of extreme precipitation, PMP estimation methods are still based on deterministic consideration, and give only single values. This study aims to provide a probabilistic description of the PMP based on the commonly used method, the so-called moisture maximization. To this end, a probabilistic bivariate extreme values model is proposed to address the limitations of traditional PMP estimates via moisture maximization namely: (i) the inability to evaluate uncertainty and to provide a range PMP values, (ii) the interpretation that a maximum of a data series as a physical upper limit (iii) and the assumption that a PMP event has maximum moisture availability. Results from simulation outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model CanRCM4 over North America reveal the high uncertainties inherent in PMP estimates and the non-validity of the assumption that PMP events have maximum moisture availability. This later assumption leads to overestimation of the PMP by an average of about 15% over North America, which may have serious implications for engineering design.

Review of mechanisms, methods, and theory for determining recharge to shallow aquifers in North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Horak, W.F.

1988-01-01

Effective management of ground-water resources requires knowledge of all components of the water budget for the aquifer of interest. Efforts to simulate ground-water flow prior to development and the effects of proposed pumping in several of North Dakota's shallow glacial aquifers have been hindered by the lack of reliable estimates of ground-water recharge. This study was done to (1) review the methods that have been used to measure recharge, (2) review the theory of unsaturated flow and the methods for characterizing the physical properties of unsaturated media, (3) consider the relative merits of a rigorous data-intensive approach versus an estimation approach to the study of recharge, and (4) review past and current agronomic research in North Dakota for applicability of the research and the data generated to the study of recharge.Direct, quantitative techniques for evaluating recharge are rarely applied. The theory for computing fluxes in unsaturated media is well established and numerous physics-based models that effectively implement the theory are available, but the data required for the models generally are lacking. Many parametric approaches have been developed to avoid the large data requirements of the physics-based approaches for analyzing flow in the unsaturated zone. However, the parametric approaches normally include fitting coefficients that must be calibrated for every study site, thereby detracting from the general utility of the parametric approach. The functional relation of matric potential to moisture content is required for physics-based soil-water models, whether analytic or numeric. Laboratory methods to determine these relations are tedious, costly, and may not give results representative of the soils as they occur in the field. Many models have been proposed to estimate the moisture-characteristic curve and hydraulic-conductivity function from basic soil properties, but none yield results that are universally satisfactory. In situ methods, because they require minimal disturbance of the soil profile and may be used repeatedly on the same soil mass, have become the preferred means for acquiring physical data, especially hydraulic conductivity. Hydro logic investigations, except for recent studies of hazardous-waste disposal sites, rarely have included physical characterizations of unsaturated media. Any of four phenomena could hinder attempts to simulate unsaturated flow in settings typical of North Dakota; variability of soil properties, hysteresis, frozen ground, and macropore development. The spatial and temporal variability of soil properties probably is the greatest complicating phenomenon and must be dealt with by detailed characterization of the properties. Hysteresis can detract from the accuracy of flow calculations for some soils under certain conditions but, for the present, our scant knowledge of soil physical properties is a greater hindrance to reliable soi1-water mode 1 ing than is the hysteresis phenomenon. A1 though seasona1ly frozen ground undoubtedly affects hydrologic processes in North Dakota, much more research is needed before meaningful quantitative treatment is possible. Finally, macropores can influence soil-water movement significantly, but macropore development may not be common on the intensively farmed, coarse-textured soils that typically overlie North Dakota's glacial aquifers. Lysimetry currently is the only reliable means of analyzing macropore flow.The soil-related research that has been conducted in North Dakota to date (1983) provides little of the type of information required to estimate ground-water recharge. Useful data could be developed by systematically evaluating the hydraulic characteristics of the prominent soil types overlying North Dakota's shallow glacial aquifers. These data would be required to enable use of a physics-based approach to estimating recharge. The size of the aquifer under study, its economic value, and the resources available for data collection should be considered when choosing between parametric or physics-based methods.

Estimating temporal and spatial variation of ocean surface pCO2 in the North Pacific using a self-organizing map neural network technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakaoka, S.; Telszewski, M.; Nojiri, Y.; Yasunaka, S.; Miyazaki, C.; Mukai, H.; Usui, N.

2013-09-01

This study uses a neural network technique to produce maps of the partial pressure of oceanic carbon dioxide (pCO2sea) in the North Pacific on a 0.25° latitude × 0.25° longitude grid from 2002 to 2008. The pCO2sea distribution was computed using a self-organizing map (SOM) originally utilized to map the pCO2sea in the North Atlantic. Four proxy parameters - sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth, chlorophyll a concentration, and sea surface salinity (SSS) - are used during the training phase to enable the network to resolve the nonlinear relationships between the pCO2sea distribution and biogeochemistry of the basin. The observed pCO2sea data were obtained from an extensive dataset generated by the volunteer observation ship program operated by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES). The reconstructed pCO2sea values agreed well with the pCO2sea measurements, with the root-mean-square error ranging from 17.6 μatm (for the NIES dataset used in the SOM) to 20.2 μatm (for independent dataset). We confirmed that the pCO2sea estimates could be improved by including SSS as one of the training parameters and by taking into account secular increases of pCO2sea that have tracked increases in atmospheric CO2. Estimated pCO2sea values accurately reproduced pCO2sea data at several time series locations in the North Pacific. The distributions of pCO2sea revealed by 7 yr averaged monthly pCO2sea maps were similar to Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory pCO2sea climatology, allowing, however, for a more detailed analysis of biogeochemical conditions. The distributions of pCO2sea anomalies over the North Pacific during the winter clearly showed regional contrasts between El Niño and La Niña years related to changes of SST and vertical mixing.

Potential contribution of surface-dwelling Sargassum algae to deep-sea ecosystems in the southern North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Philip; Minzlaff, Ulrike; Schoenle, Alexandra; Schwabe, Enrico; Hohlfeld, Manon; Jeuck, Alexandra; Brenke, Nils; Prausse, Dennis; Rothenbeck, Marcel; Brix, Saskia; Frutos, Inmaculada; Jörger, Katharina M.; Neusser, Timea P.; Koppelmann, Rolf; Devey, Colin; Brandt, Angelika; Arndt, Hartmut

2018-02-01

Deep-sea ecosystems, limited by their inability to use primary production as a source of carbon, rely on other sources to maintain life. Sedimentation of organic carbon into the deep sea has been previously studied, however, the high biomass of sedimented Sargassum algae discovered during the VEMA Transit expedition in 2014/2015 to the southern North Atlantic, and its potential as a regular carbon input, has been an underestimated phenomenon. To determine the potential for this carbon flux, a literature survey of previous studies that estimated the abundance of surface water Sargassum was conducted. We compared these estimates with quantitative analyses of sedimented Sargassum appearing on photos taken with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) directly above the abyssal sediment during the expedition. Organismal communities associated to Sargassum fluitans from surface waters were investigated and Sargassum samples collected from surface waters and the deep sea were biochemically analyzed (fatty acids, stable isotopes, C:N ratios) to determine degradation potential and the trophic significance within deep-sea communities. The estimated Sargassum biomass (fresh weight) in the deep sea (0.07-3.75 g/m2) was several times higher than that estimated from surface waters in the North Atlantic (0.024-0.84 g/m2). Biochemical analysis showed degradation of Sargassum occurring during sedimentation or in the deep sea, however, fatty acid and stable isotope analysis did not indicate direct trophic interactions between the algae and benthic organisms. Thus, it is assumed that components of the deep-sea microbial food web form an important link between the macroalgae and larger benthic organisms. Evaluation of the epifauna showed a diverse nano- micro-, meio, and macrofauna on surface Sargassum and maybe transported across the Atlantic, but we had no evidence for a vertical exchange of fauna components. The large-scale sedimentation of Sargassum forms an important trophic link between surface and benthic production and has to be further considered in the future as a regular carbon input to the deep-sea floor in the North Atlantic.

Surface Ocean pCO2 Seasonality and Sea-Air CO2 Flux Estimates for the North American East Coast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, Sergio; Mannino, Antonio; Najjar, Raymond G., Jr.; Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Salisbury, Joe; Wang, Zhaohui Aleck; Thomas, Helmuth; Shadwick, Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO2, combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO2 and sea-air CO2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NS+GB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO2. Estimates of the sea-air CO2 flux were derived from the available pCO2 data, as well as from the pCO2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GB+NS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between 3.4 and 5.4 Tg C/yr (areal average of 0.7 to 1.0 mol CO2 /sq m/yr) over the period 2003-2010.

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

PubMed Central

Cohen, Emily B; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Royle, J Andrew; Marra, Peter P

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America. PMID:24967083

Depth-averaged instantaneous currents in a tidally dominated shelf sea from glider observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merckelbach, Lucas

2016-12-01

Ocean gliders have become ubiquitous observation platforms in the ocean in recent years. They are also increasingly used in coastal environments. The coastal observatory system COSYNA has pioneered the use of gliders in the North Sea, a shallow tidally energetic shelf sea. For operational reasons, the gliders operated in the North Sea are programmed to resurface every 3-5 h. The glider's dead-reckoning algorithm yields depth-averaged currents, averaged in time over each subsurface interval. Under operational conditions these averaged currents are a poor approximation of the instantaneous tidal current. In this work an algorithm is developed that estimates the instantaneous current (tidal and residual) from glider observations only. The algorithm uses a first-order Butterworth low pass filter to estimate the residual current component, and a Kalman filter based on the linear shallow water equations for the tidal component. A comparison of data from a glider experiment with current data from an acoustic Doppler current profilers deployed nearby shows that the standard deviations for the east and north current components are better than 7 cm s-1 in near-real-time mode and improve to better than 6 cm s-1 in delayed mode, where the filters can be run forward and backward. In the near-real-time mode the algorithm provides estimates of the currents that the glider is expected to encounter during its next few dives. Combined with a behavioural and dynamic model of the glider, this yields predicted trajectories, the information of which is incorporated in warning messages issued to ships by the (German) authorities. In delayed mode the algorithm produces useful estimates of the depth-averaged currents, which can be used in (process-based) analyses in case no other source of measured current information is available.

Enabling intelligent copernicus services for carbon and water balance modeling of boreal forest ecosystems - North State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häme, Tuomas; Mutanen, Teemu; Rauste, Yrjö; Antropov, Oleg; Molinier, Matthieu; Quegan, Shaun; Kantzas, Euripides; Mäkelä, Annikki; Minunno, Francesco; Atli Benediktsson, Jon; Falco, Nicola; Arnason, Kolbeinn; Storvold, Rune; Haarpaintner, Jörg; Elsakov, Vladimir; Rasinmäki, Jussi

2015-04-01

The objective of project North State, funded by Framework Program 7 of the European Union, is to develop innovative data fusion methods that exploit the new generation of multi-source data from Sentinels and other satellites in an intelligent, self-learning framework. The remote sensing outputs are interfaced with state-of-the-art carbon and water flux models for monitoring the fluxes over boreal Europe to reduce current large uncertainties. This will provide a paradigm for the development of products for future Copernicus services. The models to be interfaced are a dynamic vegetation model and a light use efficiency model. We have identified four groups of variables that will be estimated with remote sensed data: land cover variables, forest characteristics, vegetation activity, and hydrological variables. The estimates will be used as model inputs and to validate the model outputs. The earth observation variables are computed as automatically as possible, with an objective to completely automatic estimation. North State has two sites for intensive studies in southern and northern Finland, respectively, one in Iceland and one in state Komi of Russia. Additionally, the model input variables will be estimated and models applied over European boreal and sub-arctic region from Ural Mountains to Iceland. The accuracy assessment of the earth observation variables will follow statistical sampling design. Model output predictions are compared to earth observation variables. Also flux tower measurements are applied in the model assessment. In the paper, results of hyperspectral, Sentinel-1, and Landsat data and their use in the models is presented. Also an example of a completely automatic land cover class prediction is reported.

Influence of anthropogenic combustion emissions on the deposition of soluble aerosol iron to the ocean: Empirical estimates for island sites in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sholkovitz, Edward R.; Sedwick, Peter N.; Church, Thomas M.

2009-07-01

The results of several recent studies challenge the reigning paradigm that continental soil dust provides the only significant atmospheric source of dissolved iron to the surface ocean. This evidence includes correlations between the operational solubility of aerosol iron and atmospheric loadings of black carbon and aluminum-normalized vanadium and nickel, each of which are associated with emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel oil. These observations suggest that the relative solubility of aerosol iron, hence the eolian flux of soluble iron to the surface ocean, may be significantly impacted by anthropogenic oil combustion products. Using recent field data from the Bermuda region, we have developed an empirical method to estimate the solubility of aerosol iron using bulk aerosol concentrations of Fe, V and Al. We apply this method to a large body of published data from the AEROCE program for North Atlantic island sites on Tenerife, Barbados, Bermuda and Ireland, where the relative proportions of anthropogenic aerosols range from minor to major, respectively. Our aerosol iron solubility estimates suggest that anthropogenic emissions contribute approximately 70% and 85% of the annual dry deposition of soluble iron to the surface ocean near Bermuda and Ireland, respectively, implying that human activities have profoundly affected the iron budget of the North Atlantic region. The annual mean dry deposition of soluble iron at Barbados and Izana is dominated by soil dust. The anthropogenic contribution at these two sites ranges from 12% to 30% and is highly dependent on the soil dust solubility of Fe employed in the model. The low end (˜12%) estimate appears to be more representative of these high-dust sites.

Estimating migratory connectivity of birds when re-encounter probabilities are heterogeneous

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Emily B.; Hostelter, Jeffrey A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Marra, Peter P.

2014-01-01

Understanding the biology and conducting effective conservation of migratory species requires an understanding of migratory connectivity – the geographic linkages of populations between stages of the annual cycle. Unfortunately, for most species, we are lacking such information. The North American Bird Banding Laboratory (BBL) houses an extensive database of marking, recaptures and recoveries, and such data could provide migratory connectivity information for many species. To date, however, few species have been analyzed for migratory connectivity largely because heterogeneous re-encounter probabilities make interpretation problematic. We accounted for regional variation in re-encounter probabilities by borrowing information across species and by using effort covariates on recapture and recovery probabilities in a multistate capture–recapture and recovery model. The effort covariates were derived from recaptures and recoveries of species within the same regions. We estimated the migratory connectivity for three tern species breeding in North America and over-wintering in the tropics, common (Sterna hirundo), roseate (Sterna dougallii), and Caspian terns (Hydroprogne caspia). For western breeding terns, model-derived estimates of migratory connectivity differed considerably from those derived directly from the proportions of re-encounters. Conversely, for eastern breeding terns, estimates were merely refined by the inclusion of re-encounter probabilities. In general, eastern breeding terns were strongly connected to eastern South America, and western breeding terns were strongly linked to the more western parts of the nonbreeding range under both models. Through simulation, we found this approach is likely useful for many species in the BBL database, although precision improved with higher re-encounter probabilities and stronger migratory connectivity. We describe an approach to deal with the inherent biases in BBL banding and re-encounter data to demonstrate that this large dataset is a valuable source of information about the migratory connectivity of the birds of North America.

What Happened to Gray Whales during the Pleistocene? The Ecological Impact of Sea-Level Change on Benthic Feeding Areas in the North Pacific Ocean

PubMed Central

Pyenson, Nicholas D.; Lindberg, David R.

2011-01-01

Background Gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) undertake long migrations, from Baja California to Alaska, to feed on seasonally productive benthos of the Bering and Chukchi seas. The invertebrates that form their primary prey are restricted to shallow water environments, but global sea-level changes during the Pleistocene eliminated or reduced this critical habitat multiple times. Because the fossil record of gray whales is coincident with the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, gray whales survived these massive changes to their feeding habitat, but it is unclear how. Methodology/Principal Findings We reconstructed gray whale carrying capacity fluctuations during the past 120,000 years by quantifying gray whale feeding habitat availability using bathymetric data for the North Pacific Ocean, constrained by their maximum diving depth. We calculated carrying capacity based on modern estimates of metabolic demand, prey availability, and feeding duration; we also constrained our estimates to reflect current population size and account for glaciated and non-glaciated areas in the North Pacific. Our results show that key feeding areas eliminated by sea-level lowstands were not replaced by commensurate areas. Our reconstructions show that such reductions affected carrying capacity, and harmonic means of these fluctuations do not differ dramatically from genetic estimates of carrying capacity. Conclusions/Significance Assuming current carrying capacity estimates, Pleistocene glacial maxima may have created multiple, weak genetic bottlenecks, although the current temporal resolution of genetic datasets does not test for such signals. Our results do not, however, falsify molecular estimates of pre-whaling population size because those abundances would have been sufficient to survive the loss of major benthic feeding areas (i.e., the majority of the Bering Shelf) during glacial maxima. We propose that gray whales survived the disappearance of their primary feeding ground by employing generalist filter-feeding modes, similar to the resident gray whales found between northern Washington State and Vancouver Island. PMID:21754984

Out of the Pacific and back again: insights into the matrilineal history of Pacific killer whale ecotypes.

PubMed

Foote, Andrew D; Morin, Phillip A; Durban, John W; Willerslev, Eske; Orlando, Ludovic; Gilbert, M Thomas P

2011-01-01

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) are the most widely distributed marine mammals and have radiated to occupy a range of ecological niches. Disparate sympatric types are found in the North Atlantic, Antarctic and North Pacific oceans, however, little is known about the underlying mechanisms driving divergence. Previous phylogeographic analysis using complete mitogenomes yielded a bifurcating tree of clades corresponding to described ecotypes. However, there was low support at two nodes at which two Pacific and two Atlantic clades diverged. Here we apply further phylogenetic and coalescent analyses to partitioned mitochondrial genome sequences to better resolve the pattern of past radiations in this species. Our phylogenetic reconstructions indicate that in the North Pacific, sympatry between the maternal lineages that make up each ecotype arises from secondary contact. Both the phylogenetic reconstructions and a clinal decrease in diversity suggest a North Pacific to North Atlantic founding event, and the later return of killer whales to the North Pacific. Therefore, ecological divergence could have occurred during the allopatric phase through drift or selection and/or may have either commenced or have been consolidated upon secondary contact due to resource competition. The estimated timing of bidirectional migration between the North Pacific and North Atlantic coincided with the previous inter-glacial when the leakage of fauna from the Indo-Pacific into the Atlantic via the Agulhas current was particularly vigorous.

Atmospheric concentrations and air-sea exchanges of nonylphenol, tertiary octylphenol and nonylphenol monoethoxylate in the North Sea.

PubMed

Xie, Zhiyong; Lakaschus, Soenke; Ebinghaus, Ralf; Caba, Armando; Ruck, Wolfgang

2006-07-01

Concentrations of nonylphenol isomers (NP), tertiary octylphenol (t-OP) and nonylphenol monoethoxylate isomers (NP1EO) have been simultaneously determined in the sea water and atmosphere of the North Sea. A decreasing concentration profile appeared following the distance increasing from the coast to the central part of the North Sea. Air-sea exchanges of t-OP and NP were estimated using the two-film resistance model based upon relative air-water concentrations and experimentally derived Henry's law constant. The average of air-sea exchange fluxes was -12+/-6 ng m(-2)day(-1) for t-OP and -39+/-19 ng m(-2)day(-1) for NP, which indicates a net deposition is occurring. These results suggest that the air-sea vapour exchange is an important process that intervenes in the mass balance of alkylphenols in the North Sea.

Vegetational analysis with Skylab-3 imagery. [Perquimans County, North Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welby, C. W. (Principal Investigator); Holman, R. E.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Color infrared photography from Skylab 3 appeared to be superior to ERTS imagery in a vegetational study of northeastern North Carolina. An accuracy of 87% was achieved in delimiting species composition and zonation patterns of three coastal, vegetation classes. A vegetation map of Perquimans County, North Carolina, seemed to have a high degree of correlation with information provided by high altitude U-2 photography. Random verification sites revealed an overall interpretation accuracy above 84%. Comparison of maps drawn utilizing Skylab photography with North Carolina Dept. of Agriculture estimates of crop acreage revealed some marked discrepancies. The chief difference lies in the nonagricultural category in which there is a 30% discrepancy. This fact raised some questions as to the definition of nonagricultural land uses and methods used by the State Dept. of Agriculture to determine actual percentages of crops grown.

Verification of NOx emission inventories over North Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Na Kyung; Kim, Yong Pyo; Morino, Yu; Kurokawa, Jun-ichi; Ohara, Toshimasa

2014-12-01

In this study, the top-down NOx emissions estimated from satellite observations of NO2 vertical column densities over North Korea from 1996 to 2009 were analyzed. Also, a bottom-up NOx emission inventory from REAS 1.1 from 1980 to 2005 was analyzed with several statistics. REAS 1.1 was in good agreement with the top-down approach for both trend and amount. The characteristics of NOx emissions in North Korea were quite different from other developed countries including South Korea. In North Korea, emissions from industry sector was the highest followed by transportation sector in the 1980s. However, after 1990, the NOx emissions from other sector, mainly agriculture, became the 2nd highest. Also, no emission centers such as urban areas or industrial areas were distinctively observed. Finally, the monthly NOx emissions were high during the warm season. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic importance of bats in agriculture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyles, Justin G.; Cryan, Paul M.; McCracken, Gary F.; Kunz, Thomas H.

2011-01-01

White-nose syndrome (WNS) and the increased development of wind-power facilities are threatening populations of insectivorous bats in North America. Bats are voracious predators of nocturnal insects, including many crop and forest pests. We present here analyses suggesting that loss of bats in North America could lead to agricultural losses estimated at more than $3.7 billion/year. Urgent efforts are needed to educate the public and policy-makers about the ecological and economic importance of insectivorous bats and to provide practical conservation solutions.

Estimating Resistance and Resilience of Military Lands Using Vegetation Indices

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-17

position unless so designated by other authorized documents. DESTROY THIS REPORT WHEN NO LONGER NEEDED. DO NOT RETURN IT TO THE ORIGINATOR. ERDC/CERL TR...most basic Army requirement and are defined as those installation areas designated for impact and detonation of all ordnance or those areas re- quired...Lower Montane Riparian Woodland and Shrubland 2.86 0.04 3.55 0.68 0.71 North American Warm Desert Pavement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 North American Warm

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

Evaluating ethane and methane emissions associated with the development of oil and natural gas extraction in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franco, B.; Mahieu, E.; Emmons, L. K.; Tzompa-Sosa, Z. A.; Fischer, E. V.; Sudo, K.; Bovy, B.; Conway, S.; Griffin, D.; Hannigan, J. W.; Strong, K.; Walker, K. A.

2016-04-01

Sharp rises in the atmospheric abundance of ethane (C2H6) have been detected from 2009 onwards in the Northern Hemisphere as a result of the unprecedented growth in the exploitation of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs in North America. Using time series of C2H6 total columns derived from ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) observations made at five selected Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change sites, we characterize the recent C2H6 evolution and determine growth rates of ˜5% yr-1 at mid-latitudes and of ˜3% yr-1 at remote sites. Results from CAM-chem simulations with the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants, Phase II bottom-up inventory for anthropogenic emissions are found to greatly underestimate the current C2H6 abundances. Doubling global emissions is required to reconcile the simulations and the observations prior to 2009. We further estimate that North American anthropogenic C2H6 emissions have increased from 1.6 Tg yr-1 in 2008 to 2.8 Tg yr-1 in 2014, i.e. by 75% over these six years. We also completed a second simulation with new top-down emissions of C2H6 from North American oil and gas activities, biofuel consumption and biomass burning, inferred from space-borne observations of methane (CH4) from Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite. In this simulation, GEOS-Chem is able to reproduce FTIR measurements at the mid-latitudinal sites, underscoring the impact of the North American oil and gas development on the current C2H6 abundance. Finally we estimate that the North American oil and gas emissions of CH4, a major greenhouse gas, grew from 20 to 35 Tg yr-1 over the period 2008-2014, in association with the recent C2H6 rise.

Phylogeny and biogeography of the carnivorous plant family Sarraceniaceae.

PubMed

Ellison, Aaron M; Butler, Elena D; Hicks, Emily Jean; Naczi, Robert F C; Calie, Patrick J; Bell, Charles D; Davis, Charles C

2012-01-01

The carnivorous plant family Sarraceniaceae comprises three genera of wetland-inhabiting pitcher plants: Darlingtonia in the northwestern United States, Sarracenia in eastern North America, and Heliamphora in northern South America. Hypotheses concerning the biogeographic history leading to this unusual disjunct distribution are controversial, in part because genus- and species-level phylogenies have not been clearly resolved. Here, we present a robust, species-rich phylogeny of Sarraceniaceae based on seven mitochondrial, nuclear, and plastid loci, which we use to illuminate this family's phylogenetic and biogeographic history. The family and genera are monophyletic: Darlingtonia is sister to a clade consisting of Heliamphora+Sarracenia. Within Sarracenia, two clades were strongly supported: one consisting of S. purpurea, its subspecies, and S. rosea; the other consisting of nine species endemic to the southeastern United States. Divergence time estimates revealed that stem group Sarraceniaceae likely originated in South America 44-53 million years ago (Mya) (highest posterior density [HPD] estimate = 47 Mya). By 25-44 (HPD = 35) Mya, crown-group Sarraceniaceae appears to have been widespread across North and South America, and Darlingtonia (western North America) had diverged from Heliamphora+Sarracenia (eastern North America+South America). This disjunction and apparent range contraction is consistent with late Eocene cooling and aridification, which may have severed the continuity of Sarraceniaceae across much of North America. Sarracenia and Heliamphora subsequently diverged in the late Oligocene, 14-32 (HPD = 23) Mya, perhaps when direct overland continuity between North and South America became reduced. Initial diversification of South American Heliamphora began at least 8 Mya, but diversification of Sarracenia was more recent (2-7, HPD = 4 Mya); the bulk of southeastern United States Sarracenia originated co-incident with Pleistocene glaciation, <3 Mya. Overall, these results suggest climatic change at different temporal and spatial scales in part shaped the distribution and diversity of this carnivorous plant clade.

Release of Volatiles During North Atlantic Flood Basalt Volcanism and Correlation to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedersen, J. M.; Tegner, C.; Kent, A. J.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

The opening of the North Atlantic Ocean between Greenland and Norway during the lower Tertiary led to intense flood basalt volcanism and the emplacement of the North Atlantic Igneous Province (NAIP). The volcanism is temporally overlapping with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but ash stratigraphy and geochronology suggests that the main flood basalt sequence in East Greenland postdates the PETM. Significant environmental changes during the PETM have been attributed to the release of CO2 or methane gas due to either extensive melting of hydrates at the ocean floor or as a consequence of the interaction of mantle derived magmas with carbon rich sediments.Estimates suggest that a minimum of 1.8x106 km3 of basaltic lava erupted during North Atlantic flood basalt volcanism. Based on measurements of melt inclusions from the flood basalts our preliminary calculations suggest that approximately 2300 Gt of SO2 and 600 Gt of HCl were released into the atmosphere. Calculated yearly fluxes approach 23 Mt/y SO2 and 6 Mt/y HCl. These estimates are regarded as conservative.The S released into to the atmosphere during flood basalt volcanism can form acid aerosols that absorb and reflect solar radiation, causing an effective cooling effect. The climatic effects of the release of Cl into the atmosphere are not well constrained, but may be an important factor for extinction scenarios due to destruction of the ozone layer.The climatic changes due to the release of S and Cl in these amounts, and for periods extending for hundred thousand of years, although not yet fully constrained are likely to be significant. One consequence of the North Atlantic flood basalt volcanism may have been the initiation of global cooling to end the PETM.

Diversification in North American arid lands: niche conservatism, divergence and expansion of habitat explain speciation in the genus Ephedra.

PubMed

Loera, Israel; Sosa, Victoria; Ickert-Bond, Stefanie M

2012-11-01

A lineage of 12 arid land shrubby species in the gymnosperm genus Ephedra (Gnetales) from North America is used to evaluate the influence of climate on speciation. With a long evolutionary history, and a well documented fossil record this lineage is an ideal model for understanding the process of speciation under a niche conservatism scenario. Using seven DNA molecular markers, Bayesian inference is carried out to uncover sister species and to estimate time of divergence of the lineages. Ecological niche models are generated for four parapatric and sympatric sister species and two analyses of niche evolution are performed, one based on ecological niche models and another using raw data and multivariate analysis. As previous analyses suggest, the diversification of North America Ephedra species may be the result of a recent secondary radiation. Both parapatric and sympatric species diverged mostly in a scenario of climatic niche conservatism. However, we also found strong evidence for niche divergence for one of the sister species pairs (E. californica-E. trifurca). Moreover, the multivariate analysis found environmental differences for some variables between sister species. The estimated divergence time of three pairs of sister species distributed in southwestern North America (E. cutleri-E. aspera, E. californica-E. trifurca and E. torreyana-E. viridis) is inferred to have occurred in the Late Miocene to Pliocene and for the sister species pair E. antisyphilitica-E. coryi distributed in the southern United States and northeastern Mexico, it was inferred from the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The orogenetic and climatic changes documented for these regions related to expansion of arid lands, may have contributed to the diversification in North American Ephedra, rather than adaptations to new climatic conditions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Niño diversity and differential teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beyene, Mussie T.; Jain, Shaleen

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies—in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events—based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Niño patterns show 20-80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20-40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Niño. Similarly, EP El Niño is linked to a 40-80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented.

Natural and anthropogenic ethanol sources inNorth America and potential atmospheric impacts of ethanol fuel use.

PubMed

Millet, Dylan B; Apel, Eric; Henze, Daven K; Hill, Jason; Marshall, Julian D; Singh, Hanwant B; Tessum, Christopher W

2012-08-07

We used an ensemble of aircraft measurements with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to constrain present-day North American ethanol sources, and gauge potential long-range impacts of increased ethanol fuel use. We find that current ethanol emissions are underestimated by 50% in Western North America, and overestimated by a factor of 2 in the east. Our best estimate for year-2005 North American ethanol emissions is 670 GgC/y, with 440 GgC/y from the continental U.S. We apply these optimized source estimates to investigate two scenarios for increased ethanol fuel use in the U.S.: one that assumes a complete transition from gasoline to E85 fuel, and one tied to the biofuel requirements of the U.S. Energy Indepence and Security Act (EISA). For both scenarios, increased ethanol emissions lead to higher atmospheric acetaldehyde concentrations (by up to 14% during winter for the All-E85 scenario and 2% for the EISA scenario) and an associated shift in reactive nitrogen partitioning reflected by an increase in the peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) to NO(y) ratio. The largest relative impacts occur during fall, winter, and spring because of large natural emissions of ethanol and other organic compounds during summer. Projected changes in atmospheric PAN reflect a balance between an increased supply of peroxyacetyl radicals from acetaldehyde oxidation, and the lower NO(x) emissions for E85 relative to gasoline vehicles. The net effect is a general PAN increase in fall through spring, and a weak decrease over the U.S. Southeast and the Atlantic Ocean during summer. Predicted NO(x) concentrations decrease in surface air over North America (by as much 5% in the All-E85 scenario). Downwind of North America this effect is counteracted by higher NO(x) export efficiency driven by increased PAN production and transport. From the point of view of NO(x) export from North America, the increased PAN formation associated with E85 fuel use thus acts to offset the associated lower NO(x) emissions.

Regional nitrogen budgets and riverine N & P fluxes for the drainages to the North Atlantic Ocean: Natural and human influences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howarth, R.W.; Billen, G.; Swaney, D.; Townsend, A.; Jaworski, N.; Lajtha, K.; Downing, J.A.; Elmgren, Ragnar; Caraco, N.; Jordan, T.; Berendse, F.; Freney, J.; Kudeyarov, V.; Murdoch, P.; Zhu, Z.-L.

1996-01-01

We present estimates of total nitrogen and total phosphorus fluxes in rivers to the North Atlantic Ocean from 14 regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Africa which collectively comprise the drainage basins to the North Atlantic. The Amazon basin dominates the overall phosphorus flux and has the highest phosphorus flux per area. The total nitrogen flux from the Amazon is also large, contributing 3.3 Tg yr-1 out of a total for the entire North Atlantic region of 13.1 Tg yr-1. On a per area basis, however, the largest nitrogen fluxes are found in the highly disturbed watersheds around the North Sea, in northwestern Europe, and in the northeastern U.S., all of which have riverine nitrogen fluxes greater than 1,000 kg N km-2 yr-1. Non-point sources of nitrogen dominate riverine fluxes to the coast in all regions. River fluxes of total nitrogen from the temperate regions of the North Atlantic basin are correlated with population density, as has been observed previously for fluxes of nitrate in the world's major rivers. However, more striking is a strong linear correlation between river fluxes of total nitrogen and the sum of anthropogenically-derived nitrogen inputs to the temperate regions (fertilizer application, human-induced increases in atmospheric deposition of oxidized forms of nitrogen, fixation by leguminous crops, and the import/export of nitrogen in agricultural products). On average, regional nitrogen fluxes in rivers are only 25% of these anthropogenically derived nitrogen inputs. Denitrification in wetlands and aquatic ecosystems is probably the dominant sink, with storage in forests perhaps also of importance. Storage of nitrogen in groundwater, although of importance in some localities, is a very small sink for nitrogen inputs in all regions. Agricultural sources of nitrogen dominate inputs in many regions, particularly the Mississippi basin and the North Sea drainages. Deposition of oxidized nitrogen, primarily of industrial origin, is the major control over river nitrogen export in some regions such as the northeastern U.S. Using data from relatively pristine areas as an index of change, we estimate that riverine nitrogen fluxes in many of the temperate regions have increased from pre-industrial times by 2 to 20 fold, although some regions such as northern Canada are relatively unchanged. Fluxes from the most disturbed region, the North Sea drainages, have increased by 6 to 20 fold. Fluxes from the Amazon basin are also at least 2 to 5 fold greater than estimated fluxes from undisturbed temperate-zone regions, despite low population density and low inputs of anthropogenic nitrogen to the region. This suggests that natural riverine nitrogen fluxes in the tropics may be significantly greater than in the temperate zone. However, deforestation may be contributing to the tropical fluxes. In either case, projected increases in fertilizer use and atmospheric deposition in the coming decades are likely to cause dramatic increases in nitrogen loading to many tropical river systems. ?? 1996 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Strategic implications of the succession of Kim Jong IL for US foreign policy towards North Korea. Master`s thesis, 2 August 1994-2 June 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McElree, J.A.

1995-06-02

This study analyzes the strategic implications of the dynastic succession of Kim Jong IL for U.S. foreign policy towards North Korea. The proliferation of nuclear weapons by North Korea threatens vital U.S. interests in Northeast Asia and challenges U.S. regional and global leadership. In order to properly respond to the North Korean nuclear threat, it is essential to understand the man who will dictate North Korean actions--Kim Jong IL. The study examines Kim Jong Il`s background, training, experience, personality, leadership characteristics, and the challenges he will face. The analysis of Kim Jong IL indicates that he is a rational actormore » who has and will continue to act in a rational manner in pursuit of his desired ends. The framework for analysis is the Strategic Estimate Process. Alternative courses of action are developed using the four elements of national power. The study identifies the strategic implications of probable North Korean actions and recommends appropriate U.S. courses of action on the basis of feasibility, acceptability, and suitability in achieving U.S. objectives in support of U.S. interests.« less

On the unification of geodetic leveling datums using satellite altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mather, R. S.; Rizos, C.; Morrison, T.

1978-01-01

Techniques are described for determining the height of Mean Sea Level (MSL) at coastal sites from satellite altimetry. Such information is of value in the adjustment of continental leveling networks. Numerical results are obtained from the 1977 GEOS-3 altimetry data bank at Goddard Space Flight Center using the Bermuda calibration of the altimeter. Estimates are made of the heights of MSL at the leveling datums for Australia and a hypothetical Galveston datum for central North America. The results obtained are in reasonable agreement with oceanographic estimates obtained by extrapolation. It is concluded that all gravity data in the Australian bank AUSGAD 76 and in the Rapp data file for central North America refer to the GEOS-3 altimeter geoid for 1976.0 with uncertainties which do not exceed + or - 0.1 mGal.

Blood thiamine values in captive adult African lions (Panthera leo).

PubMed

Hoover, John P; DiGesualdo, Cynthia L

2005-09-01

Heparinized whole-blood samples from 22 adult African lions (Panthera leo) fed diets considered nutritionally adequate in 10 American Zoo and Aquarium Association member zoos in North America were provided for this study. Blood thiamine values were estimated using a standard microbiological assay method. The mean +/- standard deviation for blood thiamine values was 249.3 +/- 43.5 nmol/L with a range in values from 160 to 350 nmol/L after exclusion of one outlier. There were no differences (P > 0.05) in the mean blood thiamine values of male and female lions, or of lions that were over and under 10 yr of age. This range (160 to 350 nmol/L) is proposed as a reasonable estimate of the expected range in blood thiamine values for captive adult African lions as currently fed in North American zoos.

Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming.

PubMed

Walter, K M; Zimov, S A; Chanton, J P; Verbyla, D; Chapin, F S

2006-09-07

Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.

Distribution, abundance and habitat use of deep diving cetaceans in the North-East Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogan, Emer; Cañadas, Ana; Macleod, Kelly; Santos, M. Begoña; Mikkelsen, Bjarni; Uriarte, Ainhize; Van Canneyt, Olivier; Vázquez, José Antonio; Hammond, Philip S.

2017-07-01

In spite of their oceanic habitat, deep diving cetacean species have been found to be affected by anthropogenic activities, with potential population impacts of high intensity sounds generated by naval research and oil prospecting receiving the most attention. Improving the knowledge of the distribution and abundance of this poorly known group is an essential prerequisite to inform mitigation strategies seeking to minimize their spatial and temporal overlap with human activities. We provide for the first time abundance estimates for five deep diving cetacean species (sperm whale, long-finned pilot whale, northern bottlenose whale, Cuvier's beaked whale and Sowerby's beaked whale) using data from three dedicated cetacean sighting surveys that covered the oceanic and shelf waters of the North-East Atlantic. Density surface modelling was used to obtain model-based estimates of abundance and to explore the physical and biological characteristics of the habitat used by these species. Distribution of all species was found to be significantly related to depth, distance from the 2000m depth contour, the contour index (a measure of variability in the seabed) and sea surface temperature. Predicted distribution maps also suggest that there is little spatial overlap between these species. Our results represent the best abundance estimates for deep-diving whales in the North-East Atlantic, predict areas of high density during summer and constitute important baseline information to guide future risk assessments of human activities on these species, evaluate potential spatial and temporal trends and inform EU Directives and future conservation efforts.

The worldwide incidence of preterm birth: a systematic review of maternal mortality and morbidity.

PubMed

Beck, Stacy; Wojdyla, Daniel; Say, Lale; Betran, Ana Pilar; Merialdi, Mario; Requejo, Jennifer Harris; Rubens, Craig; Menon, Ramkumar; Van Look, Paul F A

2010-01-01

To analyse preterm birth rates worldwide to assess the incidence of this public health problem, map the regional distribution of preterm births and gain insight into existing assessment strategies. Data on preterm birth rates worldwide were extracted during a previous systematic review of published and unpublished data on maternal mortality and morbidity reported between 1997 and 2002. Those data were supplemented through a complementary search covering the period 2003-2007. Region-specific multiple regression models were used to estimate the preterm birth rates for countries with no data. We estimated that in 2005, 12.9 million births, or 9.6% of all births worldwide, were preterm. Approximately 11 million (85%) of these preterm births were concentrated in Africa and Asia, while about 0.5 million occurred in each of Europe and North America (excluding Mexico) and 0.9 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. The highest rates of preterm birth were in Africa and North America (11.9% and 10.6% of all births, respectively), and the lowest were in Europe (6.2%). Preterm birth is an important perinatal health problem across the globe. Developing countries, especially those in Africa and southern Asia, incur the highest burden in terms of absolute numbers, although a high rate is also observed in North America. A better understanding of the causes of preterm birth and improved estimates of the incidence of preterm birth at the country level are needed to improve access to effective obstetric and neonatal care.

Historical Trends in Pm2.5-Related Premature Mortality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Background: Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia. Objective: This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed. Methods: We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual-average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of SO2, NOx, NH3 and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations. Results: Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions, i.e., Europe and high-income North America decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively. Conclusions: Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollu

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function for estimating pliocene-Holocene paleoceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, H.J.; Poore, R.Z.

1990-01-01

A new planktic foraminifer transfer function (GSF18) related 5 North Atlantic assemblages to winter and summer sea surface temperature. GSF18, based on recombined and simplified core top census data, preserves most environmental information and reproduces modern North Atlantic conditions with approximately the same accuracy as previous transfer functions, but can be more readily applied to faunal samples ranging in age from Pliocene to Holocene. Transfer function GSF18 has been applied to faunal data from Deep Sea Drilling Project Hole 552A to produce a 2.5 m.y. sea-surface temperature (SST) time series. Estimates show several periods between 2.3 and 4.6 Ma during which mean SST's were both several degrees warmer and several degrees cooler than modern conditions. Between 2.9 and 4.0 Ma SST was generally warmer than modern except for a 250 k.y. interval centered at 3.3 Ma. Maximum SST, with respect to modern conditions, occurred after the cool interval near 3.1 Ma when SST was approximately 3.6??C warmer than present conditions. Comparison of SST estimates with stable isotope data suggest that after peak warming at 3.1 Ma, there was an overall surface water cooling with concomitant build up of global ice volume, culminating in Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This event is also indicated by the presence of ice rafted detritus in 552A sediments at about 2.45 Ma. ?? 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

Using a Support Vector Machine and a Land Surface Model to Estimate Large-Scale Passive Microwave Temperatures over Snow-Covered Land in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forman, Barton A.; Reichle, Rolf Helmut

2014-01-01

A support vector machine (SVM), a machine learning technique developed from statistical learning theory, is employed for the purpose of estimating passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures over snow-covered land in North America as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) satellite sensor. The capability of the trained SVM is compared relative to the artificial neural network (ANN) estimates originally presented in [14]. The results suggest the SVM outperforms the ANN at 10.65 GHz, 18.7 GHz, and 36.5 GHz for both vertically and horizontally-polarized PMW radiation. When compared against daily AMSR-E measurements not used during the training procedure and subsequently averaged across the North American domain over the 9-year study period, the root mean squared error in the SVM output is 8 K or less while the anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.7 or greater. When compared relative to the results from the ANN at any of the six frequency and polarization combinations tested, the root mean squared error was reduced by more than 18 percent while the anomaly correlation coefficient was increased by more than 52 percent. Further, the temporal and spatial variability in the modeled brightness temperatures via the SVM more closely agrees with that found in the original AMSR-E measurements. These findings suggest the SVM is a superior alternative to the ANN for eventual use as a measurement operator within a data assimilation framework.

Intermediate water circulation in the North Pacific subarctic and northern subtropical regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueno, Hiromichi; Yasuda, Ichiro

2003-11-01

The intermediate water circulation in the North Pacific subarctic and northern subtropical regions is investigated through inverse analysis, focusing on the volume and heat transports from the subtropical to the subarctic regions. The inverse method we adopted is a hybrid method of β-spiral and box inverse methods which permits diapycnal flux. The isopycnal velocities estimated through the inverse analysis are mostly consistent with the oxygen distribution and support the hypothesis that warm and saline intermediate water is transported from the transition domain east of Japan to the northern Gulf of Alaska. The northward volume transport across 46°N between 158°E and 130°W is estimated to be -0.2 to 5.3 Sv in the density range of 26.7-27.2σθ. The upward diapycnal transports in the open subarctic North Pacific (region N) across 26.7 and 27.2σθ isopycnal surfaces are estimated to be 0.2 to 1.5 Sv and -0.2 to 0.9 Sv, respectively. Part of the water transported upward across 26.7σθ might outcrop and be carried to the subtropical region by the southward Ekman drift. Through the examination of heat balance of the intermediate layer in the subarctic region, it is suggested quantitatively that the intermediate heat transport from the south plays an essential role in maintaining the heat of the mesothermal waters in the subarctic region.

Potential Effects of Wood Chip Mill Harvests on Economic Returns and Forest Management Practices of Nonindustrial Private Forest Landowners in North Carolina

Treesearch

Anthony Snider; Frederick Cubbage; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

Four approaches were used to estimate the market effects of wood chip mills for nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) landowners. First, we used economic welfare analyses to estimate potential changes in consumer and producer surplus that might be attributed to increased stumpage demand created by wood chip mills. Better markets would consistently increase economic...

Triallelic SNPs for estimating cattle introgression, inbreeding, and determining parentage in North American yak

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The current population of yaks in the U.S. is estimated to exceed 5,000 and was derived from about 150 animals imported in the 20th Century. During the expansion of the U.S. herd, some yaks were allowed to hybridize with cattle, although it is not clear to what extent. Our aim was to use next genera...

Earth Observation taken during the Expedition 37 mission

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-11-09

ISS037-E-028930 (9 Nov. 2013) --- When one of the Expedition 37 crew members aboard the International Space Station took this photograph on Nov. 9, 2013, Typhoon Haiyan had already made landfall and was rapidly weakening over the west-central Philippines, with winds estimated at 110 miles per hour and estimated position near 15.0 degrees north latitude and 112.3 degrees east longitude.

Application of QuickBird imagery in fuel load estimation in the Daxinganling region, China.

Treesearch

Sen Jin; Shyh-Chin Chen

2012-01-01

A high spatial resolution QuickBird satellite image and a low spatial but high spectral resolution Landsat Thermatic Mapper image were used to linearly regress fuel loads of 70 plots with size 30X30m over the Daxinganling region of north-east China. The results were compared with loads from field surveys and from regression estimations by surveyed stand characteristics...

Estimation of crown biomass of Pinus pinaster stands and shrubland above-ground biomass using forest inventory data, remotely sensed imagery and spatial prediction models

Treesearch

H. Viana; J. Aranha; D. Lopes; Warren B. Cohen

2012-01-01

Spatially crown biomass of Pinus pinaster stands and shrubland above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation was carried-out in a region located in Centre-North Portugal, by means of different approaches including forest inventory data, remotely sensed imagery and spatial prediction models. Two cover types (pine stands and shrubland) were inventoried and...

Geographic variation in survival and migratory tendency among North American Common Mergansers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Reed, J.A.; Flint, Paul L.

2005-01-01

Movement ecology and demographic parameters for the Common Merganser (Mergus merganser americanus) in North America are poorly known. We used band-recovery data from five locations across North America spanning the years 1938-1998 to examine migratory patterns and estimate survival rates. We examined competing time-invariant, age-graduated models with program MARK to study sources of variation in survival and reporting probability. We considered age, sex, geographic location, and the use of nasal saddles on hatching year birds at one location as possible sources of variation. Year-of-banding was included as a covariate in a post-hoc analysis. We found that migratory tendency, defined as the average distance between banding and recovery locations, varied geographically. Similarly, all models accounting for the majority of variation in recovery and survival probabilities included location of banding. Models that included age and sex received less support, but we lacked sufficient data to adequately assess these parameters. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival ranged from 0.21 in Michigan to 0.82 in Oklahoma. Heterogeneity in migration tendency and survival suggests that demographic patterns may vary across geographic scales, with implications for the population dynamics of this species.

Seismic evidence for convection-driven motion of the North American plate.

PubMed

Eaton, David W; Frederiksen, Andrew

2007-03-22

Since the discovery of plate tectonics, the relative importance of driving forces of plate motion has been debated. Resolution of this issue has been hindered by uncertainties in estimates of basal traction, which controls the coupling between lithospheric plates and underlying mantle convection. Hotspot tracks preserve records of past plate motion and provide markers with which the relative motion between a plate's surface and underlying mantle regions may be examined. Here we show that the 115-140-Myr surface expression of the Great Meteor hotspot track in eastern North America is misaligned with respect to its location at 200 km depth, as inferred from plate-reconstruction models and seismic tomographic studies. The misalignment increases with age and is consistent with westward displacement of the base of the plate relative to its surface, at an average rate of 3.8 +/- 1.8 mm yr(-1). Here age-constrained 'piercing points' have enabled direct estimation of relative motion between the surface and underside of a plate. The relative displacement of the base is approximately parallel to seismic fast axes and calculated mantle flow, suggesting that asthenospheric flow may be deforming the lithospheric keel and exerting a driving force on this part of the North American plate.

Magnitude of the Suess Effect in North Atlantic - a Study of Foraminifera and Transient Tracer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Oppo, D.; Gebbie, G.; Thornalley, D. J.

2016-02-01

The Suess Effect is the decrease of δ 13C in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels. The recent decrease in δ 13C in the deep sea due to uptake of carbon has been measured in samples taken on hydrographic surveys, although these surveys only provide snapshots of deep sea δ 13C. The long-term decrease in δ 13C has been estimated using modern hydrographic properties, but there are no direct measurements. Here we present records of δ 13C from benthic and planktonic foraminifera, collected south of Iceland in the North Atlantic Ocean. The cores have high accumulation rates and, based on radiocarbon, modern core tops. We find a monotonic decreasing trend since 1850 that is significant in two out of the three benthic records we have generated. A tracer simulation, with Transit Time Distribution and Equilibrium Time Distribution generated from previous tracer modeling studies, predicts a trend that is similar to our observations at the core sites. The presence of the Suess Effect in some of the cores is consistent with previous estimates on the uptake of anthropogenic CO{}2 in the newly formed North Atlantic Deep Water.

Conjunctive-use optimization model and sustainable-yield estimation for the Sparta aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Paul W.; Clark, Brian R.; Czarnecki, John B.

2004-01-01

Conjunctive-use optimization modeling was done to assist water managers and planners by estimating the maximum amount of ground water that hypothetically could be withdrawn from wells within the Sparta aquifer indefinitely without violating hydraulic-head or stream-discharge constraints. The Sparta aquifer is largely a confined aquifer of regional importance that comprises a sequence of unconsolidated sand units that are contained within the Sparta Sand. In 2000, more than 35.4 million cubic feet per day (Mft3/d) of water were withdrawn from the aquifer by more than 900 wells, primarily for industry, municipal supply, and crop irrigation in Arkansas. Continued, heavy withdrawals from the aquifer have caused several large cones of depression, lowering hydraulic heads below the top of the Sparta Sand in parts of Union and Columbia Counties and several areas in north-central Louisiana. Problems related to overdraft in the Sparta aquifer can result in increased drilling and pumping costs, reduced well yields, and degraded water quality in areas of large drawdown. A finite-difference ground-water flow model was developed for the Sparta aquifer using MODFLOW, primarily in eastern and southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana. Observed aquifer conditions in 1997 supported by numerical simulations of ground-water flow show that continued pumping at withdrawal rates representative of 1990 - 1997 rates cannot be sustained indefinitely without causing hydraulic heads to drop substantially below the top of the Sparta Sand in southern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana. Areas of ground-water levels below the top of the Sparta Sand have been designated as Critical Ground-Water Areas by the State of Arkansas. A steady-state conjunctive-use optimization model was developed to simulate optimized surface-water and ground-water withdrawals while maintaining hydraulic-head and streamflow constraints, thus determining the 'sustainable yield' for the aquifer. Initial attempts to estimate sustainable yield using simulated 1997 hydraulic heads as initial heads in Scenario 1 and 100 percent of the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rate as the lower specified limit in Scenario 2 led to infeasible results. Sustainable yield was estimated successfully for scenario 3 with three variations on the upper limit of withdrawal rates. Additionally, ground-water withdrawals in Union County were fixed at 35.6 percent of the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rate in Scenario 3. These fixed withdrawals are recognized by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission to be sustainable as determined in a previous study. The optimized solutions maintained hydraulic heads at or above the top of the Sparta Sand (except in the outcrop areas where unconfined conditions occur) and streamflow within the outcrop areas was maintained at or above minimum levels. Scenario 3 used limits of 100, 150, and 200 percent of baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rates for the upper specified limit on 1,119 withdrawal decision variables (managed wells) resulting in estimated sustainable yields ranging from 11.6 to 13.2 Mft3/d in Arkansas and 0.3 to 0.5 Mft3/d in Louisiana. Assuming the total 2 Conjunctive-Use Optimization Model and Sustainable-Yield Estimation for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana water demand is equal to the baseline 1990-1997 withdrawal rates, the sustainable yields estimated from the three scenarios only provide 52 to 59 percent of the total ground-water demand for Arkansas; the remainder is defined as unmet demand that could be obtained from large, sustainable surface-water withdrawals.

[Estimation of organic matter content of north fluvo-aquic soil based on the coupling model of wavelet transform and partial least squares].

PubMed

Wang, Yan-Cang; Yang, Gui-Jun; Zhu, Jin-Shan; Gu, Xiao-He; Xu, Peng; Liao, Qin-Hong

2014-07-01

For improving the estimation accuracy of soil organic matter content of the north fluvo-aquic soil, wavelet transform technology is introduced. The soil samples were collected from Tongzhou district and Shunyi district in Beijing city. And the data source is from soil hyperspectral data obtained under laboratory condition. First, discrete wavelet transform efficiently decomposes hyperspectral into approximate coefficients and detail coefficients. Then, the correlation between approximate coefficients, detail coefficients and organic matter content was analyzed, and the sensitive bands of the organic matter were screened. Finally, models were established to estimate the soil organic content by using the partial least squares regression (PLSR). Results show that the NIR bands made more contributions than the visible band in estimating organic matter content models; the ability of approximate coefficients to estimate organic matter content is better than that of detail coefficients; The estimation precision of the detail coefficients fir soil organic matter content decreases with the spectral resolution being lower; Compared with the commonly used three types of soil spectral reflectance transforms, the wavelet transform can improve the estimation ability of soil spectral fir organic content; The accuracy of the best model established by the approximate coefficients or detail coefficients is higher, and the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the best model for approximate coefficients are 0.722 and 0.221, respectively. The R2 and RMSE of the best model for detail coefficients are 0.670 and 0.255, respectively.

Estimation of size of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean using Oceansat-2 scatterometer high-resolution wind products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, Neeru; Ha, Doan Thi Thu; Kishtawal, C. M.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) is one of the most intense weather hazards, especially for the coastal regions, as it causes huge devastation through gale winds and torrential floods during landfall. Thus, accurate prediction of TC is of great importance to reduce the loss of life and damage to property. Most of the cyclone track prediction model requires size of TC as an important parameter in order to simulate the vortex. TC size is also required in the impact assessment of TC affected regions. In the present work, the size of TCs formed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been estimated using the high resolution surface wind observations from oceansat-2 scatterometer. The estimated sizes of cyclones were compared to the radius of outermost closed isobar (ROCI) values provided by Joint Typhoon warning Center (JTWC) by plotting their histograms and computing the correlation and mean absolute error (MAE). The correlation and MAE between the OSCAT wind based TC size estimation and JTWC-ROCI values was found 0.69 and 33 km, respectively. The results show that the sizes of cyclones estimated by OSCAT winds are in close agreement to the JTWC-ROCI. The ROCI values of JTWC were analyzed to study the variations in the size of tropical cyclones in NIO during different time of the diurnal cycle and intensity stages.

Apparent Resistivity and Estimated Interaction Potential of Surface Water and Groundwater along Selected Canals and Streams in the Elkhorn-Loup Model Study Area, North-Central Nebraska, 2006-07

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teeple, Andrew; Vrabel, Joseph; Kress, Wade H.; Cannia, James C.

2009-01-01

In 2005, the State of Nebraska adopted new legislation that in part requires local Natural Resources Districts to include the effect of groundwater use on surface-water systems in their groundwater management plan. In response the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Elkhorn, Lower Elkhorn, Upper Loup, Lower Loup, Middle Niobrara, Lower Niobrara, Lewis and Clark, and Lower Platte North Natural Resources Districts, did a study during 2006-07 to investigate the surface-water and groundwater interaction within a 79,800-square-kilometer area in north-central Nebraska. To determine how streambed materials affect surface-water and groundwater interaction, surface geophysical and lithologic data were integrated at four sites to characterize the hydrogeologic conditions within the study area. Frequency-domain electromagnetic and waterborne direct- current resistivity profiles were collected to map the near-surface hydrogeologic conditions along sections of Ainsworth Canal near Ainsworth, Nebraska; Mirdan and Geranium Canals near Ord, Nebraska; North Loup River near Ord, Nebraska; and Middle Loup River near Thedford, Nebraska. Lithologic data were collected from test holes at each site to aid interpretation of the geophysical data. Geostatistical analysis incorporating the spatial variability of resistivity was used to account for the effect of lithologic heterogeneity on effective hydraulic permeability. The geostatistical analysis and lithologic data descriptions were used to make an interpretation of the hydrogeologic system and derive estimates of surface-water/groundwater interaction potential within the canals and streambeds. The estimated interaction potential at the Ainsworth Canal site and the Mirdan and Geranium Canal site is generally low to moderately low. The sediment textures at nearby test holes typically were silt and clay and fine-to-medium sand. The apparent resistivity values for these sites ranged from 2 to 120 ohm-meters. The vertical and horizontal variability of the apparent resistivity data were consistently low. Low resistive variability indicates little lithologic heterogeneity for either canal site. The surface-water/groundwater interaction-potential estimates are in agreement with the narrow frequency distribution of resistivity, low apparent resistivities, low spatial heterogeneity, and test-hole grain-size ranges. The estimated surface-water/groundwater interaction potential at the North Loup and Middle Loup River sites is moderate to moderately high. The sediment textures at nearby test holes were predominantly fine, medium, and coarse sand with some silt and silty to sandy clay. The apparent resistivity values for these sites ranged from 34 to 1,338 ohm-meters. The vertical variability of the resistivity data was moderately high. The horizontal variability at these sites is low to moderately low. The higher resistive variability at these sites indicates generally greater lithologic heterogeneity than at either the Ainsworth Canal site or the Mirdan and Geranium Canal site. The surface-water/groundwater interaction-potential estimates are in agreement with the generally moderate to high apparent resistivity, the greater spatial heterogeneity, and the variable lithologic texture. A higher interaction potential as compared to the canal sites is expected because of the higher subsurface resistivity and greater lithologic heterogeneity.

Incorporating partially identified sample segments into acreage estimation procedures: Estimates using only observations from the current year

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sielken, R. L., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1981-01-01

Several methods of estimating individual crop acreages using a mixture of completely identified and partially identified (generic) segments from a single growing year are derived and discussed. A small Monte Carlo study of eight estimators is presented. The relative empirical behavior of these estimators is discussed as are the effects of segment sample size and amount of partial identification. The principle recommendations are (1) to not exclude, but rather incorporate partially identified sample segments into the estimation procedure, (2) try to avoid having a large percentage (say 80%) of only partially identified segments, in the sample, and (3) use the maximum likelihood estimator although the weighted least squares estimator and least squares ratio estimator both perform almost as well. Sets of spring small grains (North Dakota) data were used.

North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA): VHF Source Retrieval Algorithm and Error Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koshak, W. J.; Solakiewicz, R. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Hall, J.; Bailey, J.; Krider, E. P.; Bateman, M. G.; Boccippio, D.

2003-01-01

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix Theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50 ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results. However, for many source locations, the Curvature Matrix Theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Heat flow and subsurface temperature as evidence for basin-scale ground-water flow, North Slope of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deming, D.; Sass, J.H.; Lachenbruch, A.H.; De Rito, R. F.

1992-01-01

Several high-resolution temperature logs were made in each of 21 drillholes and a total of 601 thermal conductivity measurements were made on drill cuttings and cores. Near-surface heat flow (??20%) is inversely correlated with elevation and ranges from a low of 27 mW/m2 in the foothills of the Brooks Range in the south, to a high of 90 mW/m2 near the north coast. Subsurface temperatures and thermal gradients estimated from corrected BHTs are similarly much higher on the coastal plain than in the foothills province to the south. Significant east-west variation in heat flow and subsurface temperature is also observed; higher heat flow and temperature coincide with higher basement topography. The observed thermal pattern is consistent with forced convection by a topographically driven ground-water flow system. Average ground-water (Darcy) velocity in the postulated flow system is estimated to be of the order of 0.1 m/yr; the effective basin-scale permeability is estimated to be of the order of 10-14 m2. -from Authors

Variability of Evaporation and Precipitation over the Ocean from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinin, V. N.; Gordeeva, S. M.

2017-12-01

HOAPS-3 and PMWC satellite archives for 1988-2008 are used to estimate moisture-exchange components between the ocean and atmosphere (evaporation, precipitation, and the difference between them or effective evaporation). Moisture-exchange components for the entire World Ocean and for the North Atlantic Ocean within 30°-60° N are calculated. A strong overestimation of the global values of effective evaporation by HOAPS data (mainly caused by a decrease in precipitation) is shown. In the interannual variability of effective evaporation, there is clearly an overestimated positive trend, which contradicts the real increase in the Global Sea Level. Large systematic errors in moisture-exchange components are revealed for the North Atlantic water area. According to HOAPS data, there is a significant underestimation of evaporation and effective evaporation. According to PMWC data, the amount of precipitation is significantly overestimated and evaporation is underestimated. As a consequence, effective evaporation becomes negative, which is impossible. Low accuracy in the estimation of moisture-exchange components and the need to improve old estimates and develop new evaporation and precipitation databases based on satellite data are noted.

Determination of elements in ayurvedic medicinal plants by AAS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teerthe, Santoshkumar S.; Kerur, B. R., E-mail: kerurbrk@yahoo.com

India has a rich country for the uses of Ayurvedic medicinal plants for treatment and also the north- Karnataka boasts an unparallel diversity of medicinal plants. The present study attempts to estimate and compare the level of trace and heavy metals in some selected leaves and root samples of Ayurvedic medicinal plants such as Mg, Al, K, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, and Cd. The samples are collected from different places of North-Karnataka regions and sample solutions prepared as the ratio of 1:25:25+950ml=1000ppm.the trace and heavy elemental concentration was estimated using Atomic Absorption Spectrometric (AAS) Method. The average concentrations ofmore » Mg, Mn, Fe and Zn, are ranging from 2ppm to 5250.2ppm and potassium (K) has more concentration as compare to all other. The other elements likes Al, Cr, Cu, and Cd were also estimed and presented in the table. Therefore, these medicinal plants are rich in some essential minerals, especially K, Mg, Mn, Fe and Zn which are essential for human health.« less

Assimilating a decade of hydrometeorological ship measurements across the North American Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2015-12-01

We use a decade of measurements made by the Volunteer Observing Ships (VOS) program on the North American Great Lakes to derive spatial estimates of over-lake air temperature, sea surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed. This Lagrangian data set, which annually comprises over 200,000 point observations from over 80,000 ship reports across a 244,000 square kilometer study area, is assimilated using a Gaussian Process machine learning algorithm. This algorithm classifies a model for each hydrometeorological variable using a combination of latitudes, longitudes, seasons of the year, as well as predictions made by the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) operational models. We show that our data-driven method significantly improves the spatial and temporal estimation of overlake hydrometeorological variables, while simultaneously providing uncertainty estimates that can be used to improve historical and future predictions on dense spatial and temporal scales. This method stands to improve the prediction of water levels on the Great Lakes, which comprise over 90% of America's surface fresh water, and impact the lives of millions of people living in the basin.

Monitoring compaction and compressibility changes in offshore chalk reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dean, G.; Hardy, R.; Eltvik, P.

1994-03-01

Some of the North Sea's largest and most important oil fields are in chalk reservoirs. In these fields, it is important to measure reservoir compaction and compressibility because compaction can result in platform subsidence. Also, compaction drive is a main drive mechanism in these fields, so an accurate reserves estimate cannot be made without first measuring compressibility. Estimating compaction and reserves is difficult because compressibility changes throughout field life. Installing of accurate, permanent downhole pressure gauges on offshore chalk fields makes it possible to use a new method to monitor compressibility -- measurement of reservoir pressure changes caused by themore » tide. This tidal-monitoring technique is an in-situ method that can greatly increase compressibility information. It can be used to estimate compressibility and to measure compressibility variation over time. This paper concentrates on application of the tidal-monitoring technique to North Sea chalk reservoirs. However, the method is applicable for any tidal offshore area and can be applied whenever necessary to monitor in-situ rock compressibility. One such application would be if platform subsidence was expected.« less

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Potential effects of anthropogenic nitrogen on northern Indian Ocean nitrous oxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora, L. M.; Suntharalingam, P.; Bange, H. W.; Bikkina, S.; Resplandy, L.; Sarin, M.; Schmidtko, S.; Seitzinger, S.; Singh, A.

2016-02-01

The North Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea + Bay of Bengal) accounts for 20-30% of the oceanic emissions of the greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (N2O). The marine N2O cycle in the suboxic and anoxic waters of this region is very sensitive to relatively small shifts in ambient oxygen (O2); as O2 decreases, N2O production is progressively enhanced and subject to non-linear nitrogen (N) cycle dynamics. Thus, small, sustained changes in local O2 levels (e.g., < 5-10 mmol L-1) may result in detectable impacts on N2O emissions from the North Indian Ocean. Some recent data suggest that O2 may be declining in the already O2-impoverished Arabian Sea. While the reasons for these possible O2 declines are not fully understood, increasing anthropogenic N inputs from atmospheric and riverine sources likely contribute. In this study we bring together a combination of atmospheric deposition models, in situ measurements, and output from the NEWS riverine model to evaluate recent changes in nitrogen nutrient input to the Arabian Sea. We estimate that there has been a twofold increase in N loading from anthropogenic atmospheric deposition and river runoff to the North Indian Ocean during recent decades. To better understand how anthropogenic N increases might affect regional N2O emissions, we also present analysis of historical N2O and O2 measurements from the North Indian Ocean along with estimates of O2 and N2O fluxes from a regional marine biogeochemical model. We find that as in the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal O2 is also likely decreasing. However, due to the paucity of data, we are not yet able to estimate the role of anthropogenic N or how these changes might affect Bay of Bengal N2O emissions. While uncertainties are also high in the Arabian Sea, our preliminary results suggest that increases in atmospheric N deposition are enhancing regional N2O production.

Quantifying methane emissions from natural gas production in north-eastern Pennsylvania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Zachary R.; Lauvaux, Thomas; Davis, Kenneth J.; Deng, Aijun; Miles, Natasha L.; Richardson, Scott J.; Cao, Yanni; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Smith, MacKenzie; Kort, Eric A.; Schwietzke, Stefan; Murphy, Thomas; Cervone, Guido; Martins, Douglas; Maasakkers, Joannes D.

2017-11-01

Natural gas infrastructure releases methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. The estimated emission rate associated with the production and transportation of natural gas is uncertain, hindering our understanding of its greenhouse footprint. This study presents a new application of inverse methodology for estimating regional emission rates from natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania. An inventory of CH4 emissions was compiled for major sources in Pennsylvania. This inventory served as input emission data for the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry enabled (WRF-Chem), and atmospheric CH4 mole fraction fields were generated at 3 km resolution. Simulated atmospheric CH4 enhancements from WRF-Chem were compared to observations obtained from a 3-week flight campaign in May 2015. Modelled enhancements from sources not associated with upstream natural gas processes were assumed constant and known and therefore removed from the optimization procedure, creating a set of observed enhancements from natural gas only. Simulated emission rates from unconventional production were then adjusted to minimize the mismatch between aircraft observations and model-simulated mole fractions for 10 flights. To evaluate the method, an aircraft mass balance calculation was performed for four flights where conditions permitted its use. Using the model optimization approach, the weighted mean emission rate from unconventional natural gas production and gathering facilities in north-eastern Pennsylvania approach is found to be 0.36 % of total gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.27 and 0.45 % of production. Similarly, the mean emission estimates using the aircraft mass balance approach are calculated to be 0.40 % of regional natural gas production, with a 2σ confidence interval between 0.08 and 0.72 % of production. These emission rates as a percent of production are lower than rates found in any other basin using a top-down methodology, and may be indicative of some characteristics of the basin that make sources from the north-eastern Marcellus region unique.

A precipitation organization climatology for North Carolina: Development and GIS-based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzar, Christopher M.

A climatology of precipitation organization is developed for the Southeast United States and is analyzed in a GIS framework. This climatology is created using four years (2009-2012) of daily-averaged data from the NOAA high-resolution multi-sensor precipitation estimation (MPE) dataset, specifically the radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product and the mosaic reflectivity. The analysis associates precipitation at each pixel with the spatial scale of precipitation organization, either a mesoscale precipitation feature (MPF) or isolated storm. While the long-term averaged precipitation totals of these systems may be similar, their hydrological and climatological impacts are very different, especially at a local scale. The classification of these modes of precipitation organization in the current precipitation climatology provides information beyond standard precipitation climatologies that will benefit a range of hydrological and climatological applications. This study focuses on North Carolina and takes advantage of a GIS framework to examine hydrological responses to different modes of precipitation organization. Specifically, the following questions are addressed: First, what are the discharge response characteristics to precipitation events in different watersheds across the state, from the mountains to the coastal plain? Second, what are the different impacts on watershed discharge between MPF precipitation and isolated precipitation? We first present seasonal and annual composites of precipitation and duration of MPF and isolated storms across three regions of North Carolina: the western mountains, the central Piedmont, and the eastern coastal plain. Further analysis in a GIS framework provides information about the impacts this seasonal and geographic variability in precipitation has on watershed discharge. This analysis defines five watersheds in North Carolina based on five North Carolina river basins using ArcGIS watershed delineation techniques. The amount of precipitation that comes from MPF and isolated convection in each watershed is estimated using ArcGIS and QPE data from a climatology of precipitation organization. Comparing these estimates to USGS streamflow data provides information about the impact different modes of precipitation organization have on watershed discharge in North Carolina. It was found that precipitation from MPF and isolated events had substantial spatial and temporal variability. While MPF average daily precipitation was greatest in the winter, isolated average daily precipitation was greatest in the summer. This resulted in seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation-discharge correlations. Precipitation originating from MPF events produced stronger precipitation-discharge correlations in the winter and fall than in the summer and spring, while most isolated precipitation-discharge correlations were relatively weak. Additionally, the watersheds in the western mountains experienced stronger correlations with a shorter time lag than coastal watersheds. It was determined that much of this spatial variability in precipitation-discharge correlations could be explained by watershed characteristics. Overall, it was found that MPF precipitation is the main mode of precipitation organization that drives daily watershed discharge, and differences in watershed precipitation-discharge lag times can be best explained by the watershed characteristics.

Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Katherine H.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Strickland, Laura E.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Thompson, Robert S.; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCRun) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species in an assemblage can theoretically live together. To narrow this range, we devised a new weighted approach (MCRwt) that employs information from the modern relations between climatic parameters and plant distributions to lessen the influence of the "tails" of the distributions of the climatic data associated with the taxa in an assemblage. To assess the performance of the MCR approaches, we applied them to a set of modern climatic data and plant distributions on a 25-km grid for North America, and compared observed and estimated climatic values for each grid point. In general, MCRwt was superior to MCRun in providing smaller anomalies, less bias, and better correlations between observed and estimated values. However, by the same measures, the results of Modern Analog Technique (MAT) approaches were superior to MCRwt. Although this might be reason to favor MAT approaches, they are based on assumptions that may not be valid for paleoclimatic reconstructions, including that: 1) the absence of a taxon from a fossil sample is meaningful, 2) plant associations were largely unaffected by past changes in either levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or in the seasonal distributions of solar radiation, and 3) plant associations of the past are adequately represented on the modern landscape. To illustrate the application of these MCR and MAT approaches to paleoclimatic reconstructions, we applied them to a Pleistocene paleobotanical assemblage from the western United States. From our examinations of the estimates of modern and past climates from vegetation assemblages, we conclude that the MCRun technique provides reliable and unbiased estimates of the ranges of possible climatic conditions that can reasonably be associated with these assemblages. The application of MCRwt and MAT approaches can further constrain these estimates and may provide a systematic way to assess uncertainty. The data sets required for MCR analyses in North America are provided in a parallel publication.

Semidirect Dynamical and Radiative Impact of North African Dust Transport on Lower Tropospheric Clouds over the Subtropical North Atlantic in CESM 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeFlorio, Mike; Ghan, Steven J.; Singh, Balwinder

This study uses a century length pre-industrial climate simulation by the Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.0) to explore statistical relationships between dust, clouds and atmospheric circulation, and to suggest a dynamical, rather than microphysical, mechanism linking subtropical North Atlantic lower tropospheric cloud cover with North African dust transport. The length of the run allows us to account for interannual variability of dust emissions and transport downstream of North Africa in the model. CESM’s mean climatology and probability distribution of aerosol optical depth in this region agrees well with available AERONET observations. In addition, CESM shows strong seasonal cycles ofmore » dust burden and lower tropospheric cloud fraction, with maximum values occurring during boreal summer, when a strong correlation between these two variables exists downstream of North Africa over the subtropical North Atlantic. Calculations of Estimated Inversion Strength (EIS) and composites of EIS on high and low downstream North Africa dust months during boreal summer reveal that dust is likely increasing inversion strength over this region due to both solar absorption and reflection. We find no evidence for a microphysical link between dust and lower tropospheric clouds in this region. These results yield new insight over an extensive period of time into the complex relationship between North African dust and lower tropospheric clouds over the open ocean, which has previously been hindered by spatiotemporal constraints of observations. Our findings lay a framework for future analyses using sub-monthly data over regions with different underlying dynamics.« less

Extreme air-sea surface turbulent fluxes in mid latitudes - estimation, origins and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulev, Sergey; Natalia, Tilinina

2014-05-01

Extreme turbulent heat fluxes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific mid latitudes were estimated from the modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25) for the period from 1979 onwards. We used direct surface turbulent flux output as well as reanalysis state variables from which fluxes have been computed using COARE-3 bulk algorithm. For estimation of extreme flux values we analyzed surface flux probability density distribution which was approximated by Modified Fisher-Tippett distribution. In all reanalyses extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500-2000 W/m2 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W/m2 for higher percentiles in the western boundary current extension (WBCE) regions. Different reanalyses show significantly different shape of MFT distribution, implying considerable differences in the estimates of extreme fluxes. The highest extreme turbulent latent heat fluxes are diagnosed in NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses with the smallest being in MERRA. These differences may not necessarily reflect the differences in mean values. Analysis shows that differences in statistical properties of the state variables are the major source of differences in the shape of PDF of fluxes and in the estimates of extreme fluxes while the contribution of computational schemes used in different reanalyses is minor. The strongest differences in the characteristics of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the WBCE extension regions and high latitudes. In the next instance we analyzed the mechanisms responsible for forming surface turbulent fluxes and their potential role in changes of midlatitudinal heat balance. Midlatitudinal cyclones were considered as the major mechanism responsible for extreme turbulent fluxes which are typically occur during the cold air outbreaks in the rear parts of cyclones when atmospheric conditions provide locally high winds and air-sea temperature gradients. For this purpose we linked characteristics of cyclone activity over the midlatitudinal oceans with the extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes. Cyclone tracks and parameters of cyclone life cycle (deepening rates, propagation velocities, life time and clustering) were derived from the same reanalyses using state of the art numerical tracking algorithm. The main questions addressed in this study are (i) through which mechanisms extreme surface fluxes are associated with cyclone activity? and (ii) which types of cyclones are responsible for forming extreme turbulent fluxes? Our analysis shows that extreme surface fluxes are typically associated not with cyclones themselves but rather with cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones. This implies that North Atlantic and North Pacific series of intense cyclones do not result in the anomalous surface fluxes. Alternatively, extreme fluxes are most frequently associated with blocking situations, particularly with the intensification of the Siberian and North American Anticyclones providing cold-air outbreaks over WBC regions.

Lithospheric structure and deformation of the North American continent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail; Cloetingh, Sierd; Mooney, Walter

2013-04-01

We estimate the integrated strength and elastic thickness (Te) of the North American lithosphere based on thermal, density and structural (seismic) models of the crust and upper mantle. The temperature distribution in the lithosphere is estimated considering for the first time the effect of composition as a result of the integrative approach based on a joint analysis of seismic and gravity data. We do this via an iterative adjustment of the model. The upper mantle temperatures are initially estimated from the NA07 tomography model of Bedle and Van der Lee (2009) using mineral physics equations. This thermal model, obtained for a uniform composition, is used to estimate the gravity effect and to remove it from the total mantle gravity anomalies, which are controlled by both temperature and compositional variations. Therefore, we can predict compositional variations from the residual gravity anomalies and use them to correct the initial thermal model. The corrected thermal model is employed again in the gravity calculations. The loop is repeated until convergence is reached. The results demonstrate that the lithospheric mantle is characterized by strong compositional heterogeneity, which is consistent with xenolith data. Seismic data from the USGS database allow to define P-wave velocity and thickness of each crustal layer of the North American geological provinces. The use of these seismic data and of the new compositional and thermal models gives us the chance to estimate lateral variation of rheology of the main lithospheric layers and to evaluate coupling-decoupling conditions at the layers' boundaries. In the North American Cordillera the strength is mainly localized in the crust, which is decoupled from the mantle lithosphere. In the cratons the strength is chiefly controlled by the mantle lithosphere and all the layers are generally coupled. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" models for the lithosphere structure. Intraplate earthquakes (USGS database) occur mainly in the weak regions, such as the Appalachians, and in the transition zones from low to high strength surrounding the craton. The obtained 3D strength model is used to compute Te of the North American lithosphere. This parameter is derived from the thermo-rheological model using new equations that consider variations of the Young's Modulus in the lithosphere. It shows large variability within the cratons, ranging from 70 km to >100km, while it drops to <30 km in the young Phanerozoic regions. The new crustal model is also used to compute the lateral pressure gradient (LPG) that can initiate horizontal ductile flow in the crust. In general, the crustal flow is directed away from the orogens towards adjacent weaker areas. The results show that the effects of the channel flow superimposed with the regional tectonic forces might result in additional significant horizontal and vertical movements associated with zones of compression or extension.

NOx Emissions from Oil and Gas Production in the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. D.; Foulds, A.; Purvis, R.; Vaughan, A. R.; Carslaw, D.; Lewis, A. C.

2015-12-01

North Sea oil is a mixture of hydrocarbons, comprising liquid petroleum and natural gas, produced from petroleum reservoirs beneath the North Sea. As of January 2015, the North Sea is the world's most active offshore drilling region with 173 rigs drilling. During the summer of 2015, a series of survey flights took place on the UKs FAAM BAe 146 research aircraft with the primary aim to assess background methane (and other hydrocarbons) levels in the drilling areas of the North Sea. Also measured were Nitrogen Oxides (NO and NO2), which are emitted from almost all combustion processes and are a key air pollutant, both directly and as a precursor to ozone (O3). The oil and gas platforms in the North Sea are often manned and require significant power generation and support vessels for their continued operation, processes that potentially emit significant amounts of NOx into an otherwise relative clean environment. During these flights we were able to measure the NO­­­x (and any subsequently produced O3) emitted from specific rigs, as well as the NOx levels in the wider North Sea oil and gas production region (see figure for example). NOx mixing ratios of <10 ppbv were frequently observed in plumes, with significant perturbation to the wider North Sea background levels. NOx emissions from the rigs are point sources within the UKs National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NAEI) and the measurements taken in plumes from individual rigs are used to assess the accuracy of these estimates.

A quantitative micropaleontologic method for shallow marine peleoclimatology: Application to Pliocene deposits of the western North Atlantic Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dowsett, H.J.

1990-01-01

A transfer function was developed to estimate summer and winter paleotemperatures for arctic to tropical regions of the western North Atlantic Ocean using fossil ostracode assemblages. Q-mode factor analysis was run on ostracode assemblages from 100 modern bottom sediment samples from continental shelves of North America, Greenland and the Caribbean using 59 ostracode taxa. Seven factors accounting for 80% of the variance define assemblages that correspond to frigid, subfrigid, cold temperate, mild temperate, warm temperate, subtropical and tropical climatic zones. Multiple regression of the factor matrix against observed February and August bottom temperatures yielded an astracode transfer function with an accuracy of about ??2??C. The transfer function was used to reconstruct middle Pliocene (3.5-3.0 Ma) shallow marine climates of the western North Atlantic during the marine transgression that deposited the Yorktown Formation (Virginia and North Carolina), the Duplin Formation (South and North Carolina) and the Pinecrest beds (Florida). Middle Pliocene paleowater temperatures in Virginia averaged 19??C in August and 13.5??C in February, about 5??C to 8??C warmer than at comparable depths off Virginia today. August and February water temperatures in North Carolina were 23??C and 13.4??C, in South Carolina about 23??C and 13.5??C and in southern Florida about 24.6??C and 15.4??C. Marine climates north of 35??N were warmer than today; south of 35??N, they were about the same or slightly cooler. Thermal gradients along the coast were generally not as steep as they are today. The North Atlantic transfer function can be applied to other shallow marine Pliocene and Pleistocene deposits of eastern North America. ?? 1990 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

Vector splines on the sphere with application to the estimation of vorticity and divergence from discrete, noisy data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wahba, G.

1982-01-01

Vector smoothing splines on the sphere are defined. Theoretical properties are briefly alluded to. The appropriate Hilbert space norms used in a specific meteorological application are described and justified via a duality theorem. Numerical procedures for computing the splines as well as the cross validation estimate of two smoothing parameters are given. A Monte Carlo study is described which suggests the accuracy with which upper air vorticity and divergence can be estimated using measured wind vectors from the North American radiosonde network.

A mixed-modes approach for estimating hiking on trails through diverse forest landscapes: the case of the Appalachian Trail

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; J.M. Bowker; H. Ken Cordell

2011-01-01

Many hiking trails traverse the forests and public lands across North America. It has therefore become important for federal management to gain an understanding of total use on these trails. However, there has never been a formal attempt to estimate hiking on these long, backcountry trails. This paper presents an approach that utilizes two survey instruments (exit-site...

Mountain lions: preliminary findings on home-range use and density, central Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Donald L. Neal; George N. Steger; Ronald C. Bertram

1987-01-01

Between August 1983 and December 1985, 19 mountain lions were captured, radio equipped, and monitored daily within a portion of the North Kings deer herd range on the west slope of the central Sierra Nevada in California. The density of adult mountain lions was estimated to be one per 33.3 km²; that of adults and kittens together was estimated to be one per 20...

The Dynamics of Natural Climatic Change

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-07-17

moraines which fix the position of ancient ice bodies to studies of fossil pol- len and plankton which provide panoramas of past continents and oceans... thermal and salinity estimates show a high positive correlation at mid- and high-latitude sites in the North Atlantic during the past 130,000 years...the thermal effect, these authors outline an alternate procedure for obtaining temperature estimates. When this alternat.i -e procedure was

Verification of satellite radar remote sensing based estimates of boreal and subalpine growing seasons using an ecosystem process model and surface biophysical measurement network information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, K. C.; Kimball, J. S.; Zimmerman, R.

2002-01-01

We employ daily surface Radar backscatter data from the SeaWinds Ku-band Scatterometer onboard Quikscat to estimate landscape freeze-thaw state and associated length of the seasonal non-frozen period as a surrogate for determining the annual growing season across boreal and subalpine regions of North America for 2000 and 2001.

Distinguishing between live and dead standing tree biomass on the North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park, USA using small-fooprint lidar data

Treesearch

Yunsuk Kim; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen; Dirk Pflugmacher; Chris L. Lauver; John L. Vankat

2009-01-01

Accurate estimation of live and dead biomass in forested ecosystems is important for studies of carbon dynamics, biodiversity, wildfire behavior, and for forest management. Lidar remote sensing has been used successfully to estimate live biomass, but studies focusing on dead biomass are rare. We used lidar data, in conjunction with field measurements from 58 plots to...

Cost Estimating Relationships for U.S. Navy Ships

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS Institute for Defense Analyses iBOl North Beauregard Street Alexandria, Virginia 22311 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT ...linear CER also is displayed. In addi- tion. Table S-1 displays the total observed cost, the total estimated cost, and the percent difference...report provided by program year a total end cost for each ship by hull number including outfitting and post delivery costs. This end cost does not

Approximation of the breast height diameter distribution of two-cohort stands by mixture models III Kernel density estimators vs mixture models

Treesearch

Rafal Podlaski; Francis A. Roesch

2014-01-01

Two-component mixtures of either the Weibull distribution or the gamma distribution and the kernel density estimator were used for describing the diameter at breast height (dbh) empirical distributions of two-cohort stands. The data consisted of study plots from the Å wietokrzyski National Park (central Poland) and areas close to and including the North Carolina section...

Evaluation of wetland methane emissions across North America using atmospheric data and inverse modeling

DOE PAGES

Miller, Scot M.; Commane, Roisin; Melton, Joe R.; ...

2016-03-02

Existing estimates of methane (CH 4) fluxes from North American wetlands vary widely in both magnitude and distribution. In light of these differences, this study uses atmospheric CH 4 observations from the US and Canada to analyze seven different bottom-up, wetland CH 4 estimates reported in a recent model comparison project. We first use synthetic data to explore whether wetland CH 4 fluxes are detectable at atmospheric observation sites. We find that the observation network can detect aggregate wetland fluxes from both eastern and western Canada but generally not from the US. Based upon these results, we then use realmore » data and inverse modeling results to analyze the magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of each model estimate. The magnitude of Canadian fluxes in many models is larger than indicated by atmospheric observations. Many models predict a seasonality that is narrower than implied by inverse modeling results, possibly indicating an oversensitivity to air or soil temperatures. The LPJ-Bern and SDGVM models have a geographic distribution that is most consistent with atmospheric observations, depending upon the region and season. Lastly, these models utilize land cover maps or dynamic modeling to estimate wetland coverage while most other models rely primarily on remote sensing inundation data.« less

Solar power potential of North-east India - A case study for Silchar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maisanam, Anil; Biswas, Agnimitra; Sharma, Kaushal Kumar

2018-04-01

High energy demand has necessitated search for all possible sources of energy. Conventional energy source is having negative impact on our environment, therefore our attention is focused on renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydro, which are considered to be clean and sustainable energy sources. India has set an ambitious target of producing 175 GW of energy using solar energy. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the solar potential to observe the feasibility of such project. North-east India is an underdeveloped region of India and due to its geographical location and difficult terrain, many regions are still not electrified. Such regions can be electrified by installing renewable energy based power plants, which can also generate number of jobs hence improving the quality of life and economic condition of the region. The objective of this paper is to estimate the solar power potential of Silchar (Assam, India) and perform a feasibility study for installation of solar-based power plant in the region. In this paper, solar radiation on tilted surface is estimated by using an anisotropic sky model. This radiation data has been used to estimate the PV power output. Finally, feasibility of the PV plant has been verified by mapping with a practical load demand.

Can we improve top-down GHG inverse methods through informed prior and better representations of atmospheric transport? Insights from the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America Aircraft Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, S.; Lauvaux, T.; Keller, K.; Davis, K. J.

2016-12-01

Current estimates of biogenic carbon fluxes over North America based on top-down atmospheric inversions are subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty stems to a large part from the uncertain prior fluxes estimates with the associated error covariances and approximations in the atmospheric transport models that link observed carbon dioxide mixing ratios with surface fluxes. Specifically, approximations in the representation of vertical mixing associated with atmospheric turbulence or convective transport and largely under-determined prior fluxes and their error structures significantly hamper our capacity to reliably estimate regional carbon fluxes. The Atmospheric Carbon and Transport - America (ACT-America) mission aims at reducing the uncertainties in inverse fluxes at the regional-scale by deploying airborne and ground-based platforms to characterize atmospheric GHG mixing ratios and the concurrent atmospheric dynamics. Two aircraft measure the 3-dimensional distribution of greenhouse gases at synoptic scales, focusing on the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere during both fair and stormy weather conditions. Here we analyze two main questions: (i) What level of information can we expect from the currently planned observations? (ii) How might ACT-America reduce the hindcast and predictive uncertainty of carbon estimates over North America?

Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

2017-12-01

Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

Elastic thickness estimates at northeast passive margin of North America and its implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R. T. Ratheesh; Maji, Tanmay K.; Kandpal, Suresh Ch; Sengupta, D.; Nair, Rajesh R.

2011-06-01

Global estimates of the elastic thickness (Te) of the structure of passive continental margins show wide and varying results owing to the use of different methodologies. Earlier estimates of the elastic thickness of the North Atlantic passive continental margins that used flexural modelling yielded a Te value of ~20-100 km. Here, we compare these estimates with the Te value obtained using orthonormalized Hermite multitaper recovered isostatic coherence functions. We discuss how Te is correlated with heat flow distribution and depth of necking. The E-W segment in the southern study region comprising Nova Scotia and the Southern Grand Banks show low Te values, while the zones comprising the NE-SW zones, viz., Western Greenland, Labrador, Orphan Basin and the Northern Grand Bank show comparatively high Te values. As expected, Te broadly reflects the depth of the 200-400°C isotherm below the weak surface sediment layer at the time of loading, and at the margins most of the loading occurred during rifting. We infer that these low Te measurements indicate Te frozen into the lithosphere. This could be due to the passive nature of the margin when the loads were emplaced during the continental break-up process at high temperature gradients.

Well log analysis to assist the interpretation of 3-D seismic data at Milne Point, north slope of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Myung W.

2005-01-01

In order to assess the resource potential of gas hydrate deposits in the North Slope of Alaska, 3-D seismic and well data at Milne Point were obtained from BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc. The well-log analysis has three primary purposes: (1) Estimate gas hydrate or gas saturations from the well logs; (2) predict P-wave velocity where there is no measured P-wave velocity in order to generate synthetic seismograms; and (3) edit P-wave velocities where degraded borehole conditions, such as washouts, affected the P-wave measurement significantly. Edited/predicted P-wave velocities were needed to map the gas-hydrate-bearing horizons in the complexly faulted upper part of 3-D seismic volume. The estimated gas-hydrate/gas saturations from the well logs were used to relate to seismic attributes in order to map regional distribution of gas hydrate inside the 3-D seismic grid. The P-wave velocities were predicted using the modified Biot-Gassmann theory, herein referred to as BGTL, with gas-hydrate saturations estimated from the resistivity logs, porosity, and clay volume content. The effect of gas on velocities was modeled using the classical Biot-Gassman theory (BGT) with parameters estimated from BGTL.

Evaluation of wetland methane emissions across North America using atmospheric data and inverse modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Scot M.; Commane, Roisin; Melton, Joe R.; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Benmergui, Joshua; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Michalak, Anna M.; Sweeney, Colm; Worthy, Doug E. J.

2016-03-01

Existing estimates of methane (CH4) fluxes from North American wetlands vary widely in both magnitude and distribution. In light of these differences, this study uses atmospheric CH4 observations from the US and Canada to analyze seven different bottom-up, wetland CH4 estimates reported in a recent model comparison project. We first use synthetic data to explore whether wetland CH4 fluxes are detectable at atmospheric observation sites. We find that the observation network can detect aggregate wetland fluxes from both eastern and western Canada but generally not from the US. Based upon these results, we then use real data and inverse modeling results to analyze the magnitude, seasonality, and spatial distribution of each model estimate. The magnitude of Canadian fluxes in many models is larger than indicated by atmospheric observations. Many models predict a seasonality that is narrower than implied by inverse modeling results, possibly indicating an oversensitivity to air or soil temperatures. The LPJ-Bern and SDGVM models have a geographic distribution that is most consistent with atmospheric observations, depending upon the region and season. These models utilize land cover maps or dynamic modeling to estimate wetland coverage while most other models rely primarily on remote sensing inundation data.

Evidence from cytochrome b sequences and allozymes for a new species of alcid: The long-billed murrelet (Brachyramphus perdix)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friesen, Vicki L.; Piatt, John F.; Baker, Allan J.

1996-01-01

Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) are coastal seabirds that breed predominantly in old-growth forest throughout the North Pacific. Presently they are classified into two phenotypically distinct subspecies: one in North America (B. m. marmoratus) and one in Asia (B. m. perdix). The Asian form was classified as a separate species in 1811, but was lumped with B. marmoratus during the 20th century. Populations of both types are considered threatened or endangered and information about the extent of genetic differentiation among birds from different sites is required for their conservation. We compared variation in 1,045 base pairs of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 39 allozyme loci among Marbled Murrelets and the closely related Kittlitz's Murrelets (B. brevirostris) from throughout the North Pacific. All analyses indicted that North American and Asian Marbled Murrelets are genetically distinct: cytochrome b sequences were highly divergent, fixed allele differences occurred at two allozyme loci, and estimated gene flow was essentially zero. Phylogenetic analyses of cytochrome b sequences and allozymes both provided strong support for a monophyletic relationship among North American Marbled Murrelets and Kittlitz's Murrelets, with Long-billed Murrelets forming the basal lineage. Long-billed and North American Marbled Murrelets clearly represent distinct species by any definition, and must be managed independently. Significant genetic differentiation also was found among both Marbled and Kittlitz's Murrelets from different sites within North America.

Influence of transport uncertainty on annual mean and seasonal inversions of atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peylin, Philippe; Baker, David; Sarmiento, Jorge; Ciais, Philippe; Bousquet, Philippe

2002-10-01

Inversion methods are often used to estimate surface CO2 fluxes from atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements, given an atmospheric transport model to relate the two. The published estimates disagree strongly on the location of the main sources and sinks, however. Are these differences due to the different time spans considered, or are they artifacts of the method and data used? Here we assess the uncertainty in such estimates due to the choice of time discretization of the measurements and fluxes, the spatial resolution of the fluxes, and the transport model. A suite of 27 Bayesian least squares inversions has been run, given by varying the number of flux regions solved for (7, 12, and 17), the time discretization (annual/annual, annual/monthly, and monthly/monthly for the fluxes/data), and the transport model (TM2, TM3, and GCTM), while holding all other inversion details constant. The estimated fluxes from this ensemble of inversions for the land + ocean sum are stable over large zonal bands, but the spread in the results increases when considering the longitudinal flux distribution inside these bands. On average for 1990-1994 the inversions place a large CO2 uptake north of 30°N (3.2 ± 0.3 GtC yr-1), mostly over the land regions, with more in Eurasia than North America. The ocean fluxes are generally smaller than given by [1999], especially south of 15°S and in the global total, where they are less than half as large. A small uptake is found for the tropical land regions, suggesting that growth more than compensates for deforestation there. The results for the different transport models are consistent with their known mixing properties; the longitudinal pattern of their land biosphere rectifier, in particular, strongly influences the regional partitioning of the flux in the north. While differences between the transport models contribute significantly to the spread of the results, an equivalent or even larger spread is due to the time discretization method used: Solving for annual mean fluxes with monthly mean measurements tended to give spurious land/ocean flux partition in the north. We suggest then that this time discretization method be avoided. Overall, the uncertainty quoted for the estimated fluxes should include not only the random error calculated by the inversion equations but also all the systematic errors in the problem, such as those addressed in this study.

Mechanical behavior of fouled polyurethane stabilized ballast (PSB).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-11-01

The United State (US) Department of Transportation (DOT) estimates that the demand for rail freight transportation (tonnage) will : increase 88% by 2035, North American railroads spend about $3.4 billion every year on track substructure maintenance a...

Prioritizing pharmaceuticals in municipal wastewater

EPA Science Inventory

Oral presentation at SETAC North America 32nd annual meeting, describing our prioritization of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), based on estimates of risks posed by API residues originating from municipal wastewater. Goals of this project include prioritization of APIs f...

Invertebrate eggs can fly: Evidence of waterfowl-mediated gene flow in aquatic invertebrates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Figuerola, J.; Green, A.J.; Michot, T.C.

2005-01-01

Waterfowl often have been assumed to disperse freshwater aquatic organisms between isolated wetlands, but no one has analyzed the impact of this transport on the population structure of aquatic organisms. For three cladocerans (Daphnia ambigua, Daphnia laevis, and Sida crystallina) and one bryozoan (Cristatella mucedo), we estimated the genetic distances between populations across North America using sequences of several mitochondrial DNA genes and genotypic frequencies at allozyme and microsatellite loci. Waterfowl movements across North America (estimated from band recovery data) explained a significant proportion of the gene flow occurring between populations across the continent for three of the four species, even after controlling for geographic distances between localities. The fourth species, S. crystallina, has propagules less likely to survive desiccation or ingestion by birds. Differences in the capacity to exploit bird-mediated transport are likely to have important consequences for the ecology of aquatic communities and the spread of invasive species.

An oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic outer continental shelf lease area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Richard Allmon; Slack, James Richard; Davis, Robert K.

1976-01-01

The Federal Government has proposed to lease 1,172,795 acres of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands on Georges Bank off the New England Coast for oil and gas development. Estimated recoverable petroleum resources for the proposed 206 tract sale area range from 180 to 650 million barrels. Contingent upon actual discovery of this quantity of oil, production is expected to span a period of about 20 years. An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine relative environmental hazards of developing oil in the North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf lease area. The study analyzed probability of spill occurrence, likely path of pollutants from spills, and locations in space and time of recreational and biological resources likely to be vulnerable. These results are combined to yield estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with development of the lease area. (Woodard-USGS)

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christy, John R.

1991-01-01

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Continuous water-quality monitoring and regression analysis to estimate constituent concentrations and loads in the Red River of the North at Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota, 2003-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galloway, Joel M.

2014-01-01

The Red River of the North (hereafter referred to as “Red River”) Basin is an important hydrologic region where water is a valuable resource for the region’s economy. Continuous water-quality monitors have been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, City of Fargo, City of Moorhead, City of Grand Forks, and City of East Grand Forks at the Red River at Fargo, North Dakota, from 2003 through 2012 and at Grand Forks, N.Dak., from 2007 through 2012. The purpose of the monitoring was to provide a better understanding of the water-quality dynamics of the Red River and provide a way to track changes in water quality. Regression equations were developed that can be used to estimate concentrations and loads for dissolved solids, sulfate, chloride, nitrate plus nitrite, total phosphorus, and suspended sediment using explanatory variables such as streamflow, specific conductance, and turbidity. Specific conductance was determined to be a significant explanatory variable for estimating dissolved solids concentrations at the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks. The regression equations provided good relations between dissolved solid concentrations and specific conductance for the Red River at Fargo and at Grand Forks, with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.99 and 0.98, respectively. Specific conductance, log-transformed streamflow, and a seasonal component were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating sulfate in the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks. Regression equations provided good relations between sulfate concentrations and the explanatory variables, with adjusted coefficients of determination of 0.94 and 0.89, respectively. For the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks, specific conductance, streamflow, and a seasonal component were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating chloride. For the Red River at Grand Forks, a time component also was a statistically significant explanatory variable for estimating chloride. The regression equations for chloride at the Red River at Fargo provided a fair relation between chloride concentrations and the explanatory variables, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.66 and the equation for the Red River at Grand Forks provided a relatively good relation between chloride concentrations and the explanatory variables, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.77. Turbidity and streamflow were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating nitrate plus nitrite concentrations at the Red River at Fargo and turbidity was the only statistically significant explanatory variable for estimating nitrate plus nitrite concentrations at Grand Forks. The regression equation for the Red River at Fargo provided a relatively poor relation between nitrate plus nitrite concentrations, turbidity, and streamflow, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.46. The regression equation for the Red River at Grand Forks provided a fair relation between nitrate plus nitrite concentrations and turbidity, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.73. Some of the variability that was not explained by the equations might be attributed to different sources contributing nitrates to the stream at different times. Turbidity, streamflow, and a seasonal component were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating total phosphorus at the Red River at Fargo and Grand Forks. The regression equation for the Red River at Fargo provided a relatively fair relation between total phosphorus concentrations, turbidity, streamflow, and season, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.74. The regression equation for the Red River at Grand Forks provided a good relation between total phosphorus concentrations, turbidity, streamflow, and season, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.87. For the Red River at Fargo, turbidity and streamflow were statistically significant explanatory variables for estimating suspended-sediment concentrations. For the Red River at Grand Forks, turbidity was the only statistically significant explanatory variable for estimating suspended-sediment concentration. The regression equation at the Red River at Fargo provided a good relation between suspended-sediment concentration, turbidity, and streamflow, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.95. The regression equation for the Red River at Grand Forks provided a good relation between suspended-sediment concentration and turbidity, with an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.96.

North Pacific Acoustic Laboratory and Deep Water Acoustics

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-27

supported research related to the NPAL project and participate in the NPAL Workshops, including Art Baggeroer (MIT), J. Beron- Vera (UMiami), M. Brown...Heaney, K. D., D’Spain, G. L., Colosi, J. A., Stephen, R. A., Kemp, J. N., Howe, B. M., Van Uffelen, L. J., and Wage, K. E ., The North Pacific...α0 ≈ 107°, and is an estimate of the angle α during PhilSea09, made from ADCP measurements at the site of the DVLA. Sim. A B1 B2 B3 C D E F Prof

Soil chemistry and phosphorus retention capacity of North Carolina coastal plain swamps receiving sewage effluent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Richardson, C.J.; Walbridge, M.R.; Burns, A.

1988-11-01

Several hundred freshwater swamps in North Carolina currently receive municipal waste-water inputs. In the study researchers examined three Coastal Plain wetlands to (1) characterize their soil chemical properties, (2) determine short-term and long-term effects of effluent additions on soil chemistry, (3) estimate the phosphorus sorption capacities of these swamp soils and determine the relationship between P sorption capacity and soil chemistry, and (4) develop a predictive index to evaluate the P sorption potentials of other N.C. Coastal Plain swamps.

ELLICOTT ROCK WILDERNESS AND ADDITIONS, SOUTH CAROLINA, NORTH CAROLINA, AND GEORGIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, Henry; Gazdik, Gertrude C.

1984-01-01

A mineral survey was made of the Ellicott Rock Wilderness and additions located in the common corner of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia. Surveys along the rivers, streams, and ridges indicated that there is little promise for the occurrence of metallic mineral or energy resources. Deeply buried sedimentary rocks have an unknown potential for hydrocarbons, probably gas. Until some deep drilling is done to test these deep sedimentary rocks no reasonable estimate of gas potential can be made, but it cannot be totally discounted.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, David; Buckley, Robert

Here, the detectability of emission sources, defined by a low-level of mixing with other sources, was estimated for various locations surrounding the Sea of Japan, including a site within North Korea. A high-resolution meteorological model coupled to a dispersion model was used to simulate plume dynamics for four periods, and two metrics of airborne plume mixing were calculated for each source. While emissions from several known sources in this area tended to blend with others while dispersing downwind, the North Korean plume often remained relatively distinct, thereby making it potentially easier to unambiguously ‘backtrack’ it to its source.

Environmental Assessment for Atlantic White Cedar Restoration Project at Dare County Range, Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-23

bond of$5,000 with ENR running to Stale of NC: conditional that n Permit to drill exploratory oil or gas well m1y well opened by drill operator shall...Native American Consultation B – U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Endangered Species Consultation C – Greenhouse Gas Estimates D – Air Emissions...on the north by the Albemarle Sound, on the west by the Alligator River, on the east by the Croatan Sound, and on the southeast by the Pamlico Sound

Survey of aircraft icing simulation test facilities in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, W.

1981-01-01

A survey was made of the aircraft icing simulation facilities in North America: there are 12 wind tunnels, 28 engine test facilities, 6 aircraft tankers and 14 low velocity facilities, that perform aircraft icing tests full or part time. The location and size of the facility, its speed and temperature range, icing cloud parameters, and the technical person to contact are surveyed. Results are presented in tabular form. The capabilities of each facility were estimated by its technical contact person. The adequacy of these facilities for various types of icing tests is discussed.

Reconciling estimates of the contemporary North American carbon balance among terrestrial biosphere models, atmospheric inversions, and a new approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange from inventory-based data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, Daniel J.; Turner, David P.; Stinson, Graham; McGuire, A. David; Wei, Yaxing; West, Tristram O.; Heath, Linda S.; de Jong, Bernardus; McConkey, Brian G.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Kurz, Werner A.; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Pan, Yude; Post, W. Mac; Cook, Robert B.

2012-01-01

We develop an approach for estimating net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using inventory-based information over North America (NA) for a recent 7-year period (ca. 2000–2006). The approach notably retains information on the spatial distribution of NEE, or the vertical exchange between land and atmosphere of all non-fossil fuel sources and sinks of CO2, while accounting for lateral transfers of forest and crop products as well as their eventual emissions. The total NEE estimate of a -327 ± 252 TgC yr-1 sink for NA was driven primarily by CO2 uptake in the Forest Lands sector (-248 TgC yr-1), largely in the Northwest and Southeast regions of the US, and in the Crop Lands sector (-297 TgC yr-1), predominantly in the Midwest US states. These sinks are counteracted by the carbon source estimated for the Other Lands sector (+218 TgC yr-1), where much of the forest and crop products are assumed to be returned to the atmosphere (through livestock and human consumption). The ecosystems of Mexico are estimated to be a small net source (+18 TgC yr-1) due to land use change between 1993 and 2002. We compare these inventory-based estimates with results from a suite of terrestrial biosphere and atmospheric inversion models, where the mean continental-scale NEE estimate for each ensemble is -511 TgC yr-1 and -931 TgC yr-1, respectively. In the modeling approaches, all sectors, including Other Lands, were generally estimated to be a carbon sink, driven in part by assumed CO2 fertilization and/or lack of consideration of carbon sources from disturbances and product emissions. Additional fluxes not measured by the inventories, although highly uncertain, could add an additional -239 TgC yr-1 to the inventory-based NA sink estimate, thus suggesting some convergence with the modeling approaches.

Quantitative estimation of bioclimatic parameters from presence/absence vegetation data in North America by the modern analog technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.S.; Anderson, K.H.; Bartlein, P.J.

2008-01-01

The method of modern analogs is widely used to obtain estimates of past climatic conditions from paleobiological assemblages, and despite its frequent use, this method involved so-far untested assumptions. We applied four analog approaches to a continental-scale set of bioclimatic and plant-distribution presence/absence data for North America to assess how well this method works under near-optimal modern conditions. For each point on the grid, we calculated the similarity between its vegetation assemblage and those of all other points on the grid (excluding nearby points). The climate of the points with the most similar vegetation was used to estimate the climate at the target grid point. Estimates based the use of the Jaccard similarity coefficient had smaller errors than those based on the use of a new similarity coefficient, although the latter may be more robust because it does not assume that the "fossil" assemblage is complete. The results of these analyses indicate that presence/absence vegetation assemblages provide a valid basis for estimating bioclimates on the continental scale. However, the accuracy of the estimates is strongly tied to the number of species in the target assemblage, and the analog method is necessarily constrained to produce estimates that fall within the range of observed values. We applied the four modern analog approaches and the mutual overlap (or "mutual climatic range") method to estimate bioclimatic conditions represented by the plant macrofossil assemblage from a packrat midden of Last Glacial Maximum age from southern Nevada. In general, the estimation approaches produced similar results in regard to moisture conditions, but there was a greater range of estimates for growing-degree days. Despite its limitations, the modern analog technique can provide paleoclimatic reconstructions that serve as the starting point to the interpretation of past climatic conditions.

Transport Structure and Energetic of the North Atlantic Current in Subpolar Gyre from Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houpert, Loïc; Inall, Mark; Dumont, Estelle; Gary, Stefan; Porter, Marie; Johns, William; Cunningham, Stuart

2017-04-01

We present the first 2 years of UK-OSNAP glider missions on the Rockall Plateau in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. From July 2014 to August 2016, 20 gliders sections were realized along 58°N, between 22°W and 15°W. Depth-averaged currents estimated from gliders show very strong values (up to 45cm.s-1) associated with meso-scale variability, due particularly to eddies and subpolar mode water formation. The variability of the flow on the eastern slope of the Iceland basin and on the Rockall Plateau is presented. Meridional absolute geostrophic transports are calculated from the glider data, and we discuss the vertical structure of the absolute meridional transport, especially the part associated with the North Atlantic Current.

Multiphase flow modeling of a crude-oil spill site with a bimodal permeability distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dillard, Leslie A.; Essaid, Hedeff I.; Herkelrath, William N.

1997-01-01

Fluid saturation, particle-size distribution, and porosity measurements were obtained from 269 core samples collected from six boreholes along a 90-m transect at a subregion of a crude-oil spill site, the north pool, near Bemidji, Minnesota. The oil saturation data, collected 11 years after the spill, showed an irregularly shaped oil body that appeared to be affected by sediment spatial variability. The particle-size distribution data were used to estimate the permeability (k) and retention curves for each sample. An additional 344 k estimates were obtained from samples previously collected at the north pool. The 613 k estimates were distributed bimodal lognormally with the two population distributions corresponding to the two predominant lithologies: a coarse glacial outwash deposit and fine-grained interbedded lenses. A two-step geostatistical approach was used to generate a conditioned realization of k representing the bimodal heterogeneity. A cross-sectional multiphase flow model was used to simulate the flow of oil and water in the presence of air along the north pool transect for an 11-year period. The inclusion of a representation of the bimodal aquifer heterogeneity was crucial for reproduction of general features of the observed oil body. If the bimodal heterogeneity was characterized, hysteresis did not have to be incorporated into the model because a hysteretic effect was produced by the sediment spatial variability. By revising the relative permeability functional relation, an improved reproduction of the observed oil saturation distribution was achieved. The inclusion of water table fluctuations in the model did not significantly affect the simulated oil saturation distribution.

A quantitative assessment of groundwater resources in the Middle East and North Africa region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lezzaik, Khalil; Milewski, Adam

2018-02-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is the world's most water-stressed region, with its countries constituting 12 of the 15 most water-stressed countries globally. Because of data paucity, comprehensive regional-scale assessments of groundwater resources in the MENA region have been lacking. The presented study addresses this issue by using a distributed ArcGIS model, parametrized with gridded data sets, to estimate groundwater storage reserves in the region based on generated aquifer saturated thickness and effective porosity estimates. Furthermore, monthly gravimetric datasets (GRACE) and land surface parameters (GLDAS) were used to quantify changes in groundwater storage between 2003 and 2014. Total groundwater reserves in the region were estimated at 1.28 × 106 cubic kilometers (km3) with an uncertainty range between 816,000 and 1.93 × 106 km3. Most of the reserves are located within large sedimentary basins in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, with Algeria, Libya, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia accounting for approximately 75% of the region's total freshwater reserves. Alternatively, small groundwater reserves were found in fractured Precambrian basement exposures. As for groundwater changes between 2003 and 2014, all MENA countries except for Morocco exhibited declines in groundwater storage. However, given the region's large groundwater reserves, groundwater changes between 2003 and 2014 are minimal and represent no immediate short-term threat to the MENA region, with some exceptions. Notwithstanding this, the study recommends the development of sustainable and efficient groundwater management policies to optimally utilize the region's groundwater resources, especially in the face of climate change, demographic expansion, and socio-economic development.

Amphipod densities and indices of wetland quality across the upper-Midwest, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, M.J.; Afton, A.D.

2008-01-01

Nutritional, behavioral, and diet data for lesser scaup (Aythya affinis [Eyton, 1838]) indicates that there has been a decrease in amphipod (Gammarus lacustris [G. O. Sars, 1863] and Hyalella azteca [Saussure, 1858]) density and wetland quality throughout the upper-Midwest, USA. Accordingly, we estimated densities of Gammarus and Hyalella in six eco-physiographic regions of Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota; 356 randomly selected semipermanent and permanent wetlands were sampled during springs 2004 and 2005. We also examined indices of wetland quality (e.g., turbidity, fish communities, aquatic vegetation) among regions in a random subset of these wetlands (n = 267). Gammarus and Hyalella were present in 19% and 54% of wetlands sampled, respectively. Gammarus and Hyalella densities in North Dakota were higher than those in Iowa and Minnesota. Although historical data are limited, our regional mean (1 to 12 m-3) amphipod densities (Gammarus + Hyalella) were markedly lower than any of the historical density estimates. Fish, important predators of amphipods, occurred in 31%-45% of wetlands in North Dakota, 84% of wetlands in the Red River Valley, and 74%-84% of wetlands in Iowa and Minnesota. Turbidity in wetlands of Minnesota Morainal (4.0 NTU geometric mean) and Red River Valley (6.1 NTU) regions appeared low relative to that of the rest of the upper-Midwest (13.2-17.5 NTU). We conclude that observed estimates of amphipods, fish, and turbidity are consistent with low wetland quality, which has resulted in lower food availability for various wildlife species, especially lesser scaup, which use these wetlands in the upper-Midwest. ?? 2008, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

The allometric relationship between resting metabolic rate and body mass in wild waterfowl (Anatidae) and an application to estimation of winter habitat requirements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.R.; Eadie, J. McA

2006-01-01

Breeding densities and migration periods of Common Snipe in Colorado were investigated in 1974-75. Sites studied were near Fort Collins and in North Park, both in north central Colorado; in the Yampa Valley in northwestern Colorado; and in the San Luis Valley in south central Colorado....Estimated densities of breeding snipe based on censuses conducted during May 1974 and 1975 were, by region: 1.3-1.7 snipe/ha near Fort Collins; 0.6 snipe/ha in North Park; 0.5-0.7 snipe/ha in the Yampa Valley; and 0.5 snipe/ha in the San Luis Valley. Overall mean densities were 06 and 0.7 snipe/ha in 1974 and 1975 respectively. On individual study sites, densities of snipe ranged from 0.2 to 2.1 snipe/ha. Areas with shallow, stable, discontinuous water levels, sparse, short vegetation, and soft organic soils had the highest densities.....Twenty-eight nests were located having a mean clutch size of 3.9 eggs. Estimated onset of incubation ranged from 2 May through 4 July. Most nests were initiated in May.....Spring migration extended from late March through early May. Highest densities of snipe were recorded in all regions during l&23 April. Fall migration was underway by early September and was completed by mid-October with highest densities occurring about the third week in September. High numbers of snipe noted in early August may have been early migrants or locally produced juveniles concentrating on favorable feeding areas.

Gridded rainfall estimation for distributed modeling in western mountainous areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreda, F.; Cong, S.; Schaake, J.; Smith, M.

2006-05-01

Estimation of precipitation in mountainous areas continues to be problematic. It is well known that radar-based methods are limited due to beam blockage. In these areas, in order to run a distributed model that accounts for spatially variable precipitation, we have generated hourly gridded rainfall estimates from gauge observations. These estimates will be used as basic data sets to support the second phase of the NWS-sponsored Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP 2). One of the major foci of DMIP 2 is to better understand the modeling and data issues in western mountainous areas in order to provide better water resources products and services to the Nation. We derive precipitation estimates using three data sources for the period of 1987-2002: 1) hourly cooperative observer (coop) gauges, 2) daily total coop gauges and 3) SNOw pack TELemetry (SNOTEL) daily gauges. The daily values are disaggregated using the hourly gauge values and then interpolated to approximately 4km grids using an inverse-distance method. Following this, the estimates are adjusted to match monthly mean values from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM). Several analyses are performed to evaluate the gridded estimates for DMIP 2 experiments. These gridded inputs are used to generate mean areal precipitation (MAPX) time series for comparison to the traditional mean areal precipitation (MAP) time series derived by the NWS' California-Nevada River Forecast Center for model calibration. We use two of the DMIP 2 basins in California and Nevada: the North Fork of the American River (catchment area 885 sq. km) and the East Fork of the Carson River (catchment area 922 sq. km) as test areas. The basins are sub-divided into elevation zones. The North Fork American basin is divided into two zones above and below an elevation threshold. Likewise, the Carson River basin is subdivided in to four zones. For each zone, the analyses include: a) overall difference, b) annual difference, c) typical year monthly comparison, and d) regression fit of the MAPX and MAP data. In terms of mean areal precipitation, overall differences between the MAP and MAPX time series are very small for the North Fork American River elevation zones. For the East Fork Carson River zones, the over all difference is up to 10 percent. The difference tends to be high when the elevation zones are small in area. In our presentation, we will show the results of our analyses and discuss future evaluations of these precipitation estimates using distributed and lumped hydrologic models.

Use of Satellite Observations for Long-Term Exposure Assessment of Global Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter

PubMed Central

Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael; Boys, Brian L.

2014-01-01

Background: More than a decade of satellite observations offers global information about the trend and magnitude of human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Objective: In this study, we developed improved global exposure estimates of ambient PM2.5 mass and trend using PM2.5 concentrations inferred from multiple satellite instruments. Methods: We combined three satellite-derived PM2.5 sources to produce global PM2.5 estimates at about 10 km × 10 km from 1998 through 2012. For each source, we related total column retrievals of aerosol optical depth to near-ground PM2.5 using the GEOS–Chem chemical transport model to represent local aerosol optical properties and vertical profiles. We collected 210 global ground-based PM2.5 observations from the literature to evaluate our satellite-based estimates with values measured in areas other than North America and Europe. Results: We estimated that global population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations increased 0.55 μg/m3/year (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67) (2.1%/year; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) from 1998 through 2012. Increasing PM2.5 in some developing regions drove this global change, despite decreasing PM2.5 in some developed regions. The estimated proportion of the population of East Asia living above the World Health Organization (WHO) Interim Target-1 of 35 μg/m3 increased from 51% in 1998–2000 to 70% in 2010–2012. In contrast, the North American proportion above the WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 fell from 62% in 1998–2000 to 19% in 2010–2012. We found significant agreement between satellite-derived estimates and ground-based measurements outside North America and Europe (r = 0.81; n = 210; slope = 0.68). The low bias in satellite-derived estimates suggests that true global concentrations could be even greater. Conclusions: Satellite observations provide insight into global long-term changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Satellite-derived estimates and ground-based PM2.5 observations from this study are available for public use. Citation: van Donkelaar A, Martin RV, Brauer M, Boys BL. 2015. Use of satellite observations for long-term exposure assessment of global concentrations of fine particulate matter. Environ Health Perspect 123:135–143; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408646 PMID:25343779

2015 Easter bolide over North Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegedüs, T.; Csizmadia, S.; Zelkó, Z.; Kereszty, Z.; Bíró, Z.

2015-01-01

On Easter Monday, April 6, 2015, at UTC 17h31m (near sunset) there was a bright (peak magnitude -12 ~ -14) bolide which also produced a sonic boom, over North Hungary, close to Miskolc, above the Bükk mountains. The event was witnessed by many people, and recorded by several car dashboard-, meteorological and all sky cameras from as far away as Farád (North-West Hungary) and Görbeháza (North-East Hungary). Unfortunately, with the event having occurred only a few minutes after sunset, the sky was still bright and therefore the Hungarian Video meteor network cameras were not yet operating. Our team has collected and re-calibrated as much video and photo material as possible. Since there were very few direct images of the bolide itself, but more photos and videos of the persistent train left behind, these latter images were also used, in certain circumstances, in our calculations. The deduced final atmospheric path and heliocentric orbit are presented, along with the estimation of the errors.

Southward spreading of the Fukushima-derived radiocesium across the Kuroshio Extension in the North Pacific

PubMed Central

Kumamoto, Yuichiro; Aoyama, Michio; Hamajima, Yasunori; Aono, Tatsuo; Kouketsu, Shinya; Murata, Akihiko; Kawano, Takeshi

2014-01-01

The accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 released a large amount of radiocesium into the North Pacific Ocean. Vertical distributions of Fukushima-derived radiocesium were measured at stations along the 149°E meridian in the western North Pacific during the winter of 2012. In the subtropical region, to the south of the Kuroshio Extension, we found a subsurface radiocesium maximum at a depth of about 300 m. It is concluded that atmospheric-deposited radiocesium south of the Kuroshio Extension just after the accident had been transported not only eastward along with surface currents but also southward due to formation/subduction of subtropical mode waters within about 10 months after the accident. The total amount of decay-corrected 134Cs in the mode water was an estimated about 6 PBq corresponding to 10–60% of the total inventory of Fukushima-derived 134Cs in the North Pacific Ocean. PMID:24589762

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

Meridional fluxes of dissolved organic matter in the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, John J.; Carder, Kendall L.; Mueller-Karger, Frank E.

1992-01-01

Biooptical estimates of gelbstoff and a few platinum measurements of dissolved organic carbon (DOCpt) are used to construct a budget of the meridional flux of DOC and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) across 36 deg 25 min N in the North Atlantic from previous inverse models of water and element transport. Distinct southward subsurface fluxes of dissolved organic matter within subducted shelf water, cabelled slope water, and overturned basin water are inferred. Within two cases of a positive gradient of DOCpt between terrestrial/shelf and offshore stocks, the net equatorward exports of O2 and DOCpt from the northern North Atlantic yield molar ratios of 2.1 to 9.1, compared to the expected Redfield O2/C ratio of 1.3. It is concluded that some shelf export of DOC, with a positive gradient between coastal and oceanic stocks, as well as falling particles, are required to balance carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen budgets of the North Atlantic.

Smokeless tobacco use among American Indian women--southeastern North Carolina, 1991.

PubMed

1995-02-17

Rates of smokeless tobacco use among U.S. adults are highest for young males, American Indians/Alaskan Natives, persons residing in the South or rural areas of the country, and those of low socioeconomic status (1). In addition, the prevalence of smokeless tobacco use has been reported to be high in tobacco-producing regions, including rural North Carolina and Kentucky (2,3). In southeastern North Carolina, reports from physicians and dentists suggested a high prevalence of smokeless tobacco use in the local American Indian population, the Lumbee--particularly among women and children. In response to these reports, the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the Bowman Gray School of Medicine of Wake Forest University analyzed data from a National Cancer Institute-sponsored cervical cancer prevention program to estimate the prevalence of smokeless tobacco use during 1991 among Lumbee women aged > or = 18 years residing in Robeson County, North Carolina (1990 population: 105,179).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward Fault in North Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lienkaemper, James J.; Williams, Patrick L.

1999-07-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776.

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.

1999-01-01

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640-1776. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

An Aquatic Decomposition Scoring Method to Potentially Predict the Postmortem Submersion Interval of Bodies Recovered from the North Sea.

PubMed

van Daalen, Marjolijn A; de Kat, Dorothée S; Oude Grotebevelsborg, Bernice F L; de Leeuwe, Roosje; Warnaar, Jeroen; Oostra, Roelof Jan; M Duijst-Heesters, Wilma L J

2017-03-01

This study aimed to develop an aquatic decomposition scoring (ADS) method and investigated the predictive value of this method in estimating the postmortem submersion interval (PMSI) of bodies recovered from the North Sea. This method, consisting of an ADS item list and a pictorial reference atlas, showed a high interobserver agreement (Krippendorff's alpha ≥ 0.93) and hence proved to be valid. This scoring method was applied to data, collected from closed cases-cases in which the postmortal submersion interval (PMSI) was known-concerning bodies recovered from the North Sea from 1990 to 2013. Thirty-eight cases met the inclusion criteria and were scored by quantifying the observed total aquatic decomposition score (TADS). Statistical analysis demonstrated that TADS accurately predicts the PMSI (p < 0.001), confirming that the decomposition process in the North Sea is strongly correlated to time. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

50 CFR 660.50 - Pacific Coast treaty Indian fisheries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... sablefish allocation to Pacific coast treaty Indian Tribes is 10 percent of the sablefish ACL for the area... (North of 36° N. lat.) ACL. The Tribal allocation is reduced by 1.5 percent for estimated discard...

50 CFR 660.50 - Pacific Coast treaty Indian fisheries.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... sablefish allocation to Pacific coast treaty Indian Tribes is 10 percent of the sablefish ACL for the area... (North of 36° N. lat.) ACL. The Tribal allocation is reduced by 1.5 percent for estimated discard...

Stadium seating--a market analysis.

Treesearch

Jerry A. Sesco; Edwin Kallio

1967-01-01

This report describes the characteristics of stadiums and seating in six North Central States; summarizes the purchasing methods for stadium seats; presents estimates of the present and future market; and points out the increasing competition to wood stadium seating form substitute materials.

Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach.

PubMed

Horbowy, Jan; Tomczak, Maciej T

2017-01-01

Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low.