Meteorological Contribution to Variability in Particulate Matter Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, H. L.; Spak, S. N.; Holloway, T.

2006-12-01

Local concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) are driven by a number of processes, including emissions of aerosols and gaseous precursors, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology at local, regional, and global scales. We apply statistical downscaling methods, typically used for regional climate analysis, to estimate the contribution of regional scale meteorology to PM mass concentration variability at a range of sites in the Upper Midwestern U.S. Multiple years of daily PM10 and PM2.5 data, reported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are correlated with large-scale meteorology over the region from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. We use two statistical downscaling methods (multiple linear regression, MLR, and analog) to identify which processes have the greatest impact on aerosol concentration variability. Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the NCEP meteorological data are correlated with PM timeseries at measurement sites. We examine which meteorological variables exert the greatest influence on PM variability, and which sites exhibit the greatest response to regional meteorology. To evaluate model performance, measurement data are withheld for limited periods, and compared with model results. Preliminary results suggest that regional meteorological processes account over 50% of aerosol concentration variability at study sites.

Modelling space of spread Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) in Central Java use spatial durbin model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ispriyanti, Dwi; Prahutama, Alan; Taryono, Arkadina PN

2018-05-01

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. From year to year, DHF causes Extraordinary Event in most parts of Indonesia, especially Central Java. Central Java consists of 35 districts or cities where each region is close to each other. Spatial regression is an analysis that suspects the influence of independent variables on the dependent variables with the influences of the region inside. In spatial regression modeling, there are spatial autoregressive model (SAR), spatial error model (SEM) and spatial autoregressive moving average (SARMA). Spatial Durbin model is the development of SAR where the dependent and independent variable have spatial influence. In this research dependent variable used is number of DHF sufferers. The independent variables observed are population density, number of hospitals, residents and health centers, and mean years of schooling. From the multiple regression model test, the variables that significantly affect the spread of DHF disease are the population and mean years of schooling. By using queen contiguity and rook contiguity, the best model produced is the SDM model with queen contiguity because it has the smallest AIC value of 494,12. Factors that generally affect the spread of DHF in Central Java Province are the number of population and the average length of school.

Haplotype Phasing and Inheritance of Copy Number Variants in Nuclear Families

PubMed Central

Palta, Priit; Kaplinski, Lauris; Nagirnaja, Liina; Veidenberg, Andres; Möls, Märt; Nelis, Mari; Esko, Tõnu; Metspalu, Andres; Laan, Maris; Remm, Maido

2015-01-01

DNA copy number variants (CNVs) that alter the copy number of a particular DNA segment in the genome play an important role in human phenotypic variability and disease susceptibility. A number of CNVs overlapping with genes have been shown to confer risk to a variety of human diseases thus highlighting the relevance of addressing the variability of CNVs at a higher resolution. So far, it has not been possible to deterministically infer the allelic composition of different haplotypes present within the CNV regions. We have developed a novel computational method, called PiCNV, which enables to resolve the haplotype sequence composition within CNV regions in nuclear families based on SNP genotyping microarray data. The algorithm allows to i) phase normal and CNV-carrying haplotypes in the copy number variable regions, ii) resolve the allelic copies of rearranged DNA sequence within the haplotypes and iii) infer the heritability of identified haplotypes in trios or larger nuclear families. To our knowledge this is the first program available that can deterministically phase null, mono-, di-, tri- and tetraploid genotypes in CNV loci. We applied our method to study the composition and inheritance of haplotypes in CNV regions of 30 HapMap Yoruban trios and 34 Estonian families. For 93.6% of the CNV loci, PiCNV enabled to unambiguously phase normal and CNV-carrying haplotypes and follow their transmission in the corresponding families. Furthermore, allelic composition analysis identified the co-occurrence of alternative allelic copies within 66.7% of haplotypes carrying copy number gains. We also observed less frequent transmission of CNV-carrying haplotypes from parents to children compared to normal haplotypes and identified an emergence of several de novo deletions and duplications in the offspring. PMID:25853576

Haplotype phasing and inheritance of copy number variants in nuclear families.

PubMed

Palta, Priit; Kaplinski, Lauris; Nagirnaja, Liina; Veidenberg, Andres; Möls, Märt; Nelis, Mari; Esko, Tõnu; Metspalu, Andres; Laan, Maris; Remm, Maido

2015-01-01

DNA copy number variants (CNVs) that alter the copy number of a particular DNA segment in the genome play an important role in human phenotypic variability and disease susceptibility. A number of CNVs overlapping with genes have been shown to confer risk to a variety of human diseases thus highlighting the relevance of addressing the variability of CNVs at a higher resolution. So far, it has not been possible to deterministically infer the allelic composition of different haplotypes present within the CNV regions. We have developed a novel computational method, called PiCNV, which enables to resolve the haplotype sequence composition within CNV regions in nuclear families based on SNP genotyping microarray data. The algorithm allows to i) phase normal and CNV-carrying haplotypes in the copy number variable regions, ii) resolve the allelic copies of rearranged DNA sequence within the haplotypes and iii) infer the heritability of identified haplotypes in trios or larger nuclear families. To our knowledge this is the first program available that can deterministically phase null, mono-, di-, tri- and tetraploid genotypes in CNV loci. We applied our method to study the composition and inheritance of haplotypes in CNV regions of 30 HapMap Yoruban trios and 34 Estonian families. For 93.6% of the CNV loci, PiCNV enabled to unambiguously phase normal and CNV-carrying haplotypes and follow their transmission in the corresponding families. Furthermore, allelic composition analysis identified the co-occurrence of alternative allelic copies within 66.7% of haplotypes carrying copy number gains. We also observed less frequent transmission of CNV-carrying haplotypes from parents to children compared to normal haplotypes and identified an emergence of several de novo deletions and duplications in the offspring.

Insight on invasions and resilience derived from spatiotemporal discontinuities of biomass at local and regional scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Criag R.; Johnson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the social and ecological consequences of species invasions is complicated by nonlinearities in processes, and differences in process and structure as scale is changed. Here we use discontinuity analyses to investigate nonlinear patterns in the distribution of biomass of an invasive nuisance species that could indicate scale-specific organization. We analyze biomass patterns in the flagellate Gonyostomum semen (Raphidophyta) in 75 boreal lakes during an 11-year period (1997-2007). With simulations using a unimodal null model and cluster analysis, we identified regional groupings of lakes based on their biomass patterns. We evaluated the variability of membership of individual lakes in regional biomass groups. Temporal trends in local and regional discontinuity patterns were analyzed using regressions and correlations with environmental variables that characterize nutrient conditions, acidity status, temperature variability, and water clarity. Regionally, there was a significant increase in the number of biomass groups over time, indicative of an increased number of scales at which algal biomass organizes across lakes. This increased complexity correlated with the invasion history of G. semen and broad-scale environmental change (recovery from acidification). Locally, no consistent patterns of lake membership to regional biomass groups were observed, and correlations with environmental variables were lake specific. The increased complexity of regional biomass patterns suggests that processes that act within or between scales reinforce the presence of G. semen and its potential to develop high-biomass blooms in boreal lakes. Emergent regional patterns combined with locally stochastic dynamics suggest a bleak future for managing G. semen, and more generally why invasive species can be ecologically successful.

Probe-specific mixed-model approach to detect copy number differences using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA)

PubMed Central

González, Juan R; Carrasco, Josep L; Armengol, Lluís; Villatoro, Sergi; Jover, Lluís; Yasui, Yutaka; Estivill, Xavier

2008-01-01

Background MLPA method is a potentially useful semi-quantitative method to detect copy number alterations in targeted regions. In this paper, we propose a method for the normalization procedure based on a non-linear mixed-model, as well as a new approach for determining the statistical significance of altered probes based on linear mixed-model. This method establishes a threshold by using different tolerance intervals that accommodates the specific random error variability observed in each test sample. Results Through simulation studies we have shown that our proposed method outperforms two existing methods that are based on simple threshold rules or iterative regression. We have illustrated the method using a controlled MLPA assay in which targeted regions are variable in copy number in individuals suffering from different disorders such as Prader-Willi, DiGeorge or Autism showing the best performace. Conclusion Using the proposed mixed-model, we are able to determine thresholds to decide whether a region is altered. These threholds are specific for each individual, incorporating experimental variability, resulting in improved sensitivity and specificity as the examples with real data have revealed. PMID:18522760

Why do people move? Enhancing human mobility prediction using local functions based on public records and SNS data

PubMed Central

Park, Juyong

2018-01-01

The quality of life for people in urban regions can be improved by predicting urban human mobility and adjusting urban planning accordingly. In this study, we compared several possible variables to verify whether a gravity model (a human mobility prediction model borrowed from Newtonian mechanics) worked as well in inner-city regions as it did in intra-city regions. We reviewed the resident population, the number of employees, and the number of SNS posts as variables for generating mass values for an urban traffic gravity model. We also compared the straight-line distance, travel distance, and the impact of time as possible distance values. We defined the functions of urban regions on the basis of public records and SNS data to reflect the diverse social factors in urban regions. In this process, we conducted a dimension reduction method for the public record data and used a machine learning-based clustering algorithm for the SNS data. In doing so, we found that functional distance could be defined as the Euclidean distance between social function vectors in urban regions. Finally, we examined whether the functional distance was a variable that had a significant impact on urban human mobility. PMID:29432440

Minding the gap: Frequency of indels in mtDNA control region sequence data and influence on population genetic analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.

2006-01-01

Insertions and deletions (indels) result in sequences of various lengths when homologous gene regions are compared among individuals or species. Although indels are typically phylogenetically informative, occurrence and incorporation of these characters as gaps in intraspecific population genetic data sets are rarely discussed. Moreover, the impact of gaps on estimates of fixation indices, such as FST, has not been reviewed. Here, I summarize the occurrence and population genetic signal of indels among 60 published studies that involved alignments of multiple sequences from the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region of vertebrate taxa. Among 30 studies observing indels, an average of 12% of both variable and parsimony-informative sites were composed of these sites. There was no consistent trend between levels of population differentiation and the number of gap characters in a data block. Across all studies, the average influence on estimates of ??ST was small, explaining only an additional 1.8% of among population variance (range 0.0-8.0%). Studies most likely to observe an increase in ??ST with the inclusion of gap characters were those with < 20 variable sites, but a near equal number of studies with few variable sites did not show an increase. In contrast to studies at interspecific levels, the influence of indels for intraspecific population genetic analyses of control region DNA appears small, dependent upon total number of variable sites in the data block, and related to species-specific characteristics and the spatial distribution of mtDNA lineages that contain indels. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Factors affecting unmet need for family planning in southern nations, nationalities and peoples region, ethiopia.

PubMed

Hailemariam, Assefa; Haddis, Fikrewold

2011-07-01

High fertility and low contraceptive prevalence characterize Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region. In such populations, unmet needs for contraception have a tendency to be high, mainly due to the effect of socio-economic and demographic variables. However, there has not been any study examining the relationship between these variables and unmet need in the region. This study, therefore, identifies the key socio- demographic determinants of unmet need for family planning in the region. The study used data from the 2000 and 2005 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys. A total of 2,133 currently married women age 15-49 from the 2000 survey and 1,988 from the 2005 survey were included in the study. Unmet need for spacing, unmet need for limiting and total unmet need were used as dependent variables. Socio- demographic variables (respondent's age, age at marriage, number of living children, sex composition of living children, child mortality experience, place of residence, respondent's and partner's education, religion and work status) were treated as explanatory variables and their relative importance was examined on each of the dependent variables using multinomial and binary logistic regression models. Unmet need for contraception increased from 35.1% in 2000 to 37.4% in 2005. Unmet need for spacing remained constant at about 25%, while unmet need for limiting increased by 20% between 2000 and 2005. Age, age at marriage, number of living children, place of residence, respondent's education, knowledge of family planning, respondent's work status, being visited by a family planning worker and survey year emerged as significant factors affecting unmet need. On the other hand, number of living children, education, age and age at marriage were the only explanatory variables affecting unmet need for limiting. Number of living children, place of residence, age and age at marriage were also identified as factors affecting total unmet need for contraception. unmet need for spacing is more prevalent than unmet need for limiting. Women with unmet need for both spacing and limiting are more likely to be living in rural areas, have lower level of education, lower level of knowledge about family planning methods, have no work other than household chores, and have never been visited by a family planning worker. In order to address unmet need for family planning in the region, policy should set mechanisms to enforce the law on minimum age for marriage, improve child survival and increase educational access to females. In addition, the policy should promote awareness creation about family planning in rural areas.

[Residential facilities for the elderly in five Italian regions. The Progres-Anziani Project].

PubMed

de Girolamo, Giovanni; Tempestini, Antonella; Cavrini, Giulia; Argentino, Paola; Federici, Stefano; Putzu, Paolo; Scocco, Paolo; Zappia, Mario; Morosini, Pierluigi; Cascavilla, Isabella; Sgadari, Antonio; Azzarito, Caterina; Brancati, Giacomo; Spalletta, Gianfranco; Pasini, Augusto

2005-01-01

To survey all Residential Facilities (RFs) for the elderly in five Italian Regions (Calabria, Sardinia, Sicily. Umbria and Veneto), and to evaluate their logistic and organizational characteristics, staff and residents' features. Structured interviews were conducted with RF managers. All RFs operating in the five Italian Regions. In the five Regions there are 853 RFs with an average of 198.0 beds per 10000 elderly inhabitants; this rate shows a marked variability between different Regions. The mean number of beds in the RFs is 59.8 (median: 34). The large majority (96%) have a 24-hour staff cover. In terms of management, the RFs are handled by local municipalities (29%), religious non-profit associations (24%), and other non-profit organizations (21%). In the 754 RFs surveyed (91.1% of the sample) there were 24.456 workers employed, even the number of staff in each facility shows a great variability. The mean number of workers directly involved in residents' care is 27.8, and the ratio residents/staff is 2.1, which becomes lower (1.8) if we consider the ratio non-independent residents/staff. In the 754 RFs there were 42,687 residents, with an average of 53.5 elderly residents for each facility and 3.2 residents below the age of 65; the mean age of the resident sample was 79.3 years, and there is an high proportion of residents with neurological (including dementia), psychiatric or medical disorders. There is marked variability in the provision of residential places between different Regions; many other characteristics of RFs for the elderly, including staff/residents ratios, show a similar variability Most RFs host elderly with a variety of neurological, psychiatric and medical disorders. The future waves of the project will shed light on many features of these institutions, which care for 2.1% of the elderly population in Italy and may serve larger proportions of the elderly in the future.

Association between the Density of Physicians and Suicide Rates in Japan: Nationwide Ecological Study Using a Spatial Bayesian Model.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Hideaki; Koike, Soichi

2016-01-01

Regional disparity in suicide rates is a serious problem worldwide. One possible cause is unequal distribution of the health workforce, especially psychiatrists. Research about the association between regional physician numbers and suicide rates is therefore important but studies are rare. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between physician numbers and suicide rates in Japan, by municipality. The study included all the municipalities in Japan (n = 1,896). We estimated smoothed standardized mortality ratios of suicide rates for each municipality and evaluated the association between health workforce and suicide rates using a hierarchical Bayesian model accounting for spatially correlated random effects, a conditional autoregressive model. We assumed a Poisson distribution for the observed number of suicides and set the expected number of suicides as the offset variable. The explanatory variables were numbers of physicians, a binary variable for the presence of psychiatrists, and social covariates. After adjustment for socioeconomic factors, suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in the other municipalities. There was, however, a positive and statistically significant association between the number of physicians and suicide rates. Suicide rates in municipalities that had at least one psychiatrist were lower than those in other municipalities, but the number of physicians was positively and significantly related with suicide rates. To improve the regional disparity in suicide rates, the government should encourage psychiatrists to participate in community-based suicide prevention programs and to settle in municipalities that currently have no psychiatrists. The government and other stakeholders should also construct better networks between psychiatrists and non-psychiatrists to support sharing of information for suicide prevention.

Protocol for statistical analysis of vegetation changes at Catoctin Mountain Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Krafft, Cairn

2010-01-01

Vegetation data collected at Catoctin Mountain Park, Maryland, in a split-panel rotation design during 2004-2009 were analyzed for differences among three regions within the park and among years. Six plots were paired with plots fenced to exclude white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), and differences between open and exclosed plots were also investigated. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test for differences in the following variables: percentage of twigs browsed, percentage of canopy cover, and number of tree and shrub seedlings in each of five height classes. Except for some differences in numbers of tree and shrub seedlings among height classes among the regions, no differences (P > 0.05) were found among the regions or over time in the variables measured. Recommendations for future sampling and analysis are discussed.

Analysis of vegetation changes in Rock Creek Park, 1991-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, Jeff S.; Krafft, Cairn

2009-01-01

Vegetation data collected at Rock Creek Park every 4 years during 1991-2007 were analyzed for differences among 3 regions within the park and among years. The variables measured and analyzed were percentage of twigs browsed, percentage of canopy cover, species richness of herbaceous plants, number of tree seedlings in each of 7 height classes, tree seedling stocking rate for low deer density and high deer density areas, percentage of tree and shrub cover < 2 m in height, mean diameter at breast height (DBH) of trees > 1 cm DBH, number of tree stems > 1 cm DBH, species richness of trees and shrubs, and mean height of the 5 tallest trees in each plot quadrant. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to test for differences and, except for some differences in tree species composition among the 3 regions, no differences (P > 0.01) were found among the 3 regions in the variables discussed above. Many of the variables showed very significant differences (P < 0.01) among years, and causative factors should be investigated further. In addition, importance values were calculated for the 10 most important tree species in each region and changes over time were reported. Future sampling recommendations are also discussed.

Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

2008-01-01

Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Inferring mechanisms of copy number change from haplotype structures at the human DEFA1A3 locus.

PubMed

Black, Holly A; Khan, Fayeza F; Tyson, Jess; Al Armour, John

2014-07-21

The determination of structural haplotypes at copy number variable regions can indicate the mechanisms responsible for changes in copy number, as well as explain the relationship between gene copy number and expression. However, obtaining spatial information at regions displaying extensive copy number variation, such as the DEFA1A3 locus, is complex, because of the difficulty in the phasing and assembly of these regions. The DEFA1A3 locus is intriguing in that it falls within a region of high linkage disequilibrium, despite its high variability in copy number (n = 3-16); hence, the mechanisms responsible for changes in copy number at this locus are unclear. In this study, a region flanking the DEFA1A3 locus was sequenced across 120 independent haplotypes with European ancestry, identifying five common classes of DEFA1A3 haplotype. Assigning DEFA1A3 class to haplotypes within the 1000 Genomes project highlights a significant difference in DEFA1A3 class frequencies between populations with different ancestry. The features of each DEFA1A3 class, for example, the associated DEFA1A3 copy numbers, were initially assessed in a European cohort (n = 599) and replicated in the 1000 Genomes samples, showing within-class similarity, but between-class and between-population differences in the features of the DEFA1A3 locus. Emulsion haplotype fusion-PCR was used to generate 61 structural haplotypes at the DEFA1A3 locus, showing a high within-class similarity in structure. Structural haplotypes across the DEFA1A3 locus indicate that intra-allelic rearrangement is the predominant mechanism responsible for changes in DEFA1A3 copy number, explaining the conservation of linkage disequilibrium across the locus. The identification of common structural haplotypes at the DEFA1A3 locus could aid studies into how DEFA1A3 copy number influences expression, which is currently unclear.

Global Genetic Variations Predict Brain Response to Faces

PubMed Central

Dickie, Erin W.; Tahmasebi, Amir; French, Leon; Kovacevic, Natasa; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J.; Bokde, Arun; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Flor, Herta; Garavan, Hugh; Gallinat, Juergen; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Lawrence, Claire; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Nichols, Thomas; Lathrop, Mark; Loth, Eva; Pausova, Zdenka; Rietschel, Marcela; Smolka, Michal N.; Ströhle, Andreas; Toro, Roberto; Schumann, Gunter; Paus, Tomáš

2014-01-01

Face expressions are a rich source of social signals. Here we estimated the proportion of phenotypic variance in the brain response to facial expressions explained by common genetic variance captured by ∼500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Using genomic-relationship-matrix restricted maximum likelihood (GREML), we related this global genetic variance to that in the brain response to facial expressions, as assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in a community-based sample of adolescents (n = 1,620). Brain response to facial expressions was measured in 25 regions constituting a face network, as defined previously. In 9 out of these 25 regions, common genetic variance explained a significant proportion of phenotypic variance (40–50%) in their response to ambiguous facial expressions; this was not the case for angry facial expressions. Across the network, the strength of the genotype-phenotype relationship varied as a function of the inter-individual variability in the number of functional connections possessed by a given region (R2 = 0.38, p<0.001). Furthermore, this variability showed an inverted U relationship with both the number of observed connections (R2 = 0.48, p<0.001) and the magnitude of brain response (R2 = 0.32, p<0.001). Thus, a significant proportion of the brain response to facial expressions is predicted by common genetic variance in a subset of regions constituting the face network. These regions show the highest inter-individual variability in the number of connections with other network nodes, suggesting that the genetic model captures variations across the adolescent brains in co-opting these regions into the face network. PMID:25122193

Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2017-10-01

Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, M.W.

2000-01-01

Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

Multi-region statistical shape model for cochlear implantation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romera, Jordi; Kjer, H. Martin; Piella, Gemma; Ceresa, Mario; González Ballester, Miguel A.

2016-03-01

Statistical shape models are commonly used to analyze the variability between similar anatomical structures and their use is established as a tool for analysis and segmentation of medical images. However, using a global model to capture the variability of complex structures is not enough to achieve the best results. The complexity of a proper global model increases even more when the amount of data available is limited to a small number of datasets. Typically, the anatomical variability between structures is associated to the variability of their physiological regions. In this paper, a complete pipeline is proposed for building a multi-region statistical shape model to study the entire variability from locally identified physiological regions of the inner ear. The proposed model, which is based on an extension of the Point Distribution Model (PDM), is built for a training set of 17 high-resolution images (24.5 μm voxels) of the inner ear. The model is evaluated according to its generalization ability and specificity. The results are compared with the ones of a global model built directly using the standard PDM approach. The evaluation results suggest that better accuracy can be achieved using a regional modeling of the inner ear.

The ichthyoplankton assemblage and the environmental variables off the NW and N Iberian Peninsula coasts, in early spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. M.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, G.; Gonzalez-Pola, C.; Cabal, J.

2009-05-01

Ichthyoplankton and mesozooplankton were sampled and fluorescence and physical environmental variables were measured off the NW and N Iberian Peninsula coasts, during April 2005. A total of 51 species of fish larvae, belonging to 26 families, were recorded. Sardina pilchardus, with 43.8% and 58.7% of the total fish egg and larval catches, respectively, dominated the ichthyoplankton assemblage. The study area was divided by a cross-shelf frontal structure into two hydrographic regions that coincided with the Atlantic and Cantabrian geographic regions. Ichthyoplankton abundance was higher in the Cantabrian region while larval diversity was higher in the Atlantic region. This was the main alongshore variability in the structure of the larval fish assemblage. Nevertheless, the stronger variability, related with the presence of a shelf-slope front, was found in the central-eastern Cantabrian region where two major larval fish assemblages, an "outer" and a "coastal", were distinguished. The Atlantic region, where the shelf-slope front was not found, was inhabited by a single larval fish assemblage. Canonical correspondence analysis revealed that, off the NW and N Iberian Peninsula coasts, the horizontal distribution of larval fish species in early spring may be explained by a limited number of environmental variables. Of these, the most important were the physical variables depth and sea surface temperature.

Variable Copy Number, Intra-Genomic Heterogeneities and Lateral Transfers of the 16S rRNA Gene in Pseudomonas

PubMed Central

Bodilis, Josselin; Nsigue-Meilo, Sandrine; Besaury, Ludovic; Quillet, Laurent

2012-01-01

Even though the 16S rRNA gene is the most commonly used taxonomic marker in microbial ecology, its poor resolution is still not fully understood at the intra-genus level. In this work, the number of rRNA gene operons, intra-genomic heterogeneities and lateral transfers were investigated at a fine-scale resolution, throughout the Pseudomonas genus. In addition to nineteen sequenced Pseudomonas strains, we determined the 16S rRNA copy number in four other Pseudomonas strains by Southern hybridization and Pulsed-Field Gel Electrophoresis, and studied the intra-genomic heterogeneities by Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis and sequencing. Although the variable copy number (from four to seven) seems to be correlated with the evolutionary distance, some close strains in the P. fluorescens lineage showed a different number of 16S rRNA genes, whereas all the strains in the P. aeruginosa lineage displayed the same number of genes (four copies). Further study of the intra-genomic heterogeneities revealed that most of the Pseudomonas strains (15 out of 19 strains) had at least two different 16S rRNA alleles. A great difference (5 or 19 nucleotides, essentially grouped near the V1 hypervariable region) was observed only in two sequenced strains. In one of our strains studied (MFY30 strain), we found a difference of 12 nucleotides (grouped in the V3 hypervariable region) between copies of the 16S rRNA gene. Finally, occurrence of partial lateral transfers of the 16S rRNA gene was further investigated in 1803 full-length sequences of Pseudomonas available in the databases. Remarkably, we found that the two most variable regions (the V1 and V3 hypervariable regions) had probably been laterally transferred from another evolutionary distant Pseudomonas strain for at least 48.3 and 41.6% of the 16S rRNA sequences, respectively. In conclusion, we strongly recommend removing these regions of the 16S rRNA gene during the intra-genus diversity studies. PMID:22545126

Variability among Cucurbitaceae species (melon, cucumber and watermelon) in a genomic region containing a cluster of NBS-LRR genes.

PubMed

Morata, Jordi; Puigdomènech, Pere

2017-02-08

Cucurbitaceae species contain a significantly lower number of genes coding for proteins with similarity to plant resistance genes belonging to the NBS-LRR family than other plant species of similar genome size. A large proportion of these genes are organized in clusters that appear to be hotspots of variability. The genomes of the Cucurbitaceae species measured until now are intermediate in size (between 350 and 450 Mb) and they apparently have not undergone any genome duplications beside those at the origin of eudicots. The cluster containing the largest number of NBS-LRR genes has previously been analyzed in melon and related species and showed a high degree of interspecific and intraspecific variability. It was of interest to study whether similar behavior occurred in other cluster of the same family of genes. The cluster of NBS-LRR genes located in melon chromosome 9 was analyzed and compared with the syntenic regions in other cucurbit genomes. This is the second cluster in number within this species and it contains nine sequences with a NBS-LRR annotation including two genes, Fom1 and Prv, providing resistance against Fusarium and Ppapaya ring-spot virus (PRSV). The variability within the melon species appears to consist essentially of single nucleotide polymorphisms. Clusters of similar genes are present in the syntenic regions of the two species of Cucurbitaceae that were sequenced, cucumber and watermelon. Most of the genes in the syntenic clusters can be aligned between species and a hypothesis of generation of the cluster is proposed. The number of genes in the watermelon cluster is similar to that in melon while a higher number of genes (12) is present in cucumber, a species with a smaller genome than melon. After comparing genome resequencing data of 115 cucumber varieties, deletion of a group of genes is observed in a group of varieties of Indian origin. Clusters of genes coding for NBS-LRR proteins in cucurbits appear to have specific variability in different regions of the genome and between different species. This observation is in favour of considering that the adaptation of plant species to changing environments is based upon the variability that may occur at any location in the genome and that has been produced by specific mechanisms of sequence variation acting on plant genomes. This information could be useful both to understand the evolution of species and for plant breeding.

Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

PubMed

Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Urban Heat Wave Vulnerability Analysis Considering Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

JE, M.; KIM, H.; Jung, S.

2017-12-01

Much attention has been paid to thermal environments in Seoul City in South Korea since 2016 when the worst heatwave in 22 years. It is necessary to provide a selective measure by singling out vulnerable regions in advance to cope with the heat wave-related damage. This study aims to analyze and categorize vulnerable regions of thermal environments in the Seoul and analyzes and discusses the factors and risk factors for each type. To do this, this study conducted the following processes: first, based on the analyzed various literature reviews, indices that can evaluate vulnerable regions of thermal environment are collated. The indices were divided into climate exposure index related to temperature, sensitivity index including demographic, social, and economic indices, and adaptation index related to urban environment and climate adaptation policy status. Second, significant variables were derived to evaluate a vulnerable region of thermal environment based on the summarized indices in the above. this study analyzed a relationship between the number of heat-related patients in Seoul and variables that affected the number using multi-variate statistical analysis to derive significant variables. Third, the importance of each variable was calculated quantitatively by integrating the statistical analysis results and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Fourth, a distribution of data for each index was identified based on the selected variables and indices were normalized and overlapped. Fifth, For the climate exposure index, evaluations were conducted as same as the current vulnerability evaluation method by selecting future temperature of Seoul predicted through the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate change scenarios as an evaluation variable. The results of this study can be utilized as foundational data to establish a countermeasure against heatwave in Seoul. Although it is limited to control heatwave occurrences itself completely, improvements on environment for heatwave alleviation and response can be done. In particular, if vulnerable regions of heatwave can be identified and managed in advance, the study results are expected to be utilized as a basis of policy utilization in local communities accordingly.

Analysis of health in health centers area in Depok using correspondence analysis and scan statistic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basir, C.; Widyaningsih, Y.; Lestari, D.

2017-07-01

Hotspots indicate area that has a higher case intensity than others. For example, in health problems of an area, the number of sickness of a region can be used as parameter and condition of area that determined severity of an area. If this condition is known soon, it can be overcome preventively. Many factors affect the severity level of area. Some health factors to be considered in this study are the number of infant with low birth weight, malnourished children under five years old, under five years old mortality, maternal deaths, births without the help of health personnel, infants without handling the baby's health, and infant without basic immunization. The number of cases is based on every public health center area in Depok. Correspondence analysis provides graphical information about two nominal variables relationship. It create plot based on row and column scores and show categories that have strong relation in a close distance. Scan Statistic method is used to examine hotspot based on some selected variables that occurred in the study area; and Correspondence Analysis is used to picturing association between the regions and variables. Apparently, using SaTScan software, Sukatani health center is obtained as a point hotspot; and Correspondence Analysis method shows health centers and the seven variables have a very significant relationship and the majority of health centers close to all variables, except Cipayung which is distantly related to the number of pregnant mother death. These results can be used as input for the government agencies to upgrade the health level in the area.

A Legionella pneumophila collagen-like protein encoded by a gene with a variable number of tandem repeats is involved in the adherence and invasion of host cells.

PubMed

Vandersmissen, Liesbeth; De Buck, Emmy; Saels, Veerle; Coil, David A; Anné, Jozef

2010-05-01

Legionella pneumophila is a Gram-negative, facultative intracellular pathogen and the causative agent of Legionnaires' disease, a severe pneumonia in humans. Analysis of the Legionella sequenced genomes revealed a gene with a variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs), whose number varies between strains. We examined the strain distribution of this gene among a collection of 108 clinical, environmental and hot spring serotype I strains. Twelve variants were identified, but no correlation was observed between the number of repeat units and clinical and environmental strains. The encoded protein contains the C-terminal consensus motif of outer membrane proteins and has a large region of collagen-like repeats that is encoded by the VNTR region. We have therefore annotated this protein Lcl for Legionella collagen-like protein. Lcl was shown to contribute to the adherence and invasion of host cells and it was demonstrated that the number of repeat units present in lcl had an influence on these adhesion characteristics.

Decentralization and centralization of healthcare resources: investigating the associations of hospital competition and number of cardiologists per hospital with mortality and resource utilization in Japan.

PubMed

Park, Sungchul; Lee, Jason; Ikai, Hiroshi; Otsubo, Tetsuya; Imanaka, Yuichi

2013-11-01

To investigate the associations of hospital competition and number of cardiologists per hospital (indicating the decentralization and centralization of healthcare resources, respectively) with 30-day in-hospital mortality, healthcare spending, and length of stay (LOS) among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Japan. We collected data from 23,197 AMI patients admitted to 172 hospitals between 2008 and 2011. Hospital competition and number of cardiologists per hospital were analyzed as exposure variables in multilevel regression models for in-hospital mortality, healthcare spending, and LOS. Other covariates included patient, hospital, and regional variables; as well as the use of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Hospitals in competitive regions and hospitals with a higher number of cardiologists were both associated lower in-hospital mortality. Additionally, hospitals in competition regions were also associated with longer LOS durations, whereas hospitals with more cardiologists had higher spending. The use of PCI was also associated with reduced mortality, increased spending and increased LOS. Centralization of cardiologists at the hospital level and decentralization of acute hospitals at the regional level may be contributing factors for improving the quality of care in Japan. Policymakers need to strike a balance between these two approaches to improve healthcare provision and quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential over request in anemia laboratory tests in primary care in Spain.

PubMed

Salinas, María; López-Garrigós, Maite; Flores, Emilio; Uris, Joaquín; Leiva-Salinas, Carlos

2015-07-01

The aim was to study the inter-practice variability in anemia laboratory tests requested by general practitioners in Spain, to evaluate for a potential requesting inappropriateness. Laboratories from diverse Spanish regions filled out the number of cell blood count, ferritin, folate, iron, transferrin, and vitamin B12 requested by general practitioners during 2012. The number of test requests per 1000 inhabitants and ratios of related tests requests were calculated. The results obtained in hospitals from different areas (urban, rural, or urban-rural), type of management (public or private), and geographic regions were compared. There was a high variability in the number of test requests and ratios of related tests. Cell blood count was over requested in rural areas and in hospitals with private management. Andalucía was the community with the lowest number of iron requests and the lowest folate/vitamin B12 indicator value. Iron and transferrin seemed over requested in some areas; as were folate and ferritin when compared to vitamin B12 and cell blood count, respectively. The differences observed between areas indicate that other factors besides clinical reasons could be behind that variability and emphasize the need to accomplish interventions to improve the appropriate use of anemia laboratory tests.

[Analysis of the technical efficiency of hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service].

PubMed

Pérez-Romero, Carmen; Ortega-Díaz, M Isabel; Ocaña-Riola, Ricardo; Martín-Martín, José Jesús

To analyse the technical efficiency and productivity of general hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service (NHS) (2010-2012) and identify explanatory hospital and regional variables. 230 NHS hospitals were analysed by data envelopment analysis for overall, technical and scale efficiency, and Malmquist index. The robustness of the analysis is contrasted with alternative input-output models. A fixed effects multilevel cross-sectional linear model was used to analyse the explanatory efficiency variables. The average rate of overall technical efficiency (OTE) was 0.736 in 2012; there was considerable variability by region. Malmquist index (2010-2012) is 1.013. A 23% variability in OTE is attributable to the region in question. Statistically significant exogenous variables (residents per 100 physicians, aging index, average annual income per household, essential public service expenditure and public health expenditure per capita) explain 42% of the OTE variability between hospitals and 64% between regions. The number of residents showed a statistically significant relationship. As regards regions, there is a statistically significant direct linear association between OTE and annual income per capita and essential public service expenditure, and an indirect association with the aging index and annual public health expenditure per capita. The significant room for improvement in the efficiency of hospitals is conditioned by region-specific characteristics, specifically aging, wealth and the public expenditure policies of each one. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Geographic variability in HIV and injection drug use in Ukraine: Implications for integration and expansion of drug treatment and HIV care

PubMed Central

Zaller, Nickolas; Mazhnaya, Alonya; Larney, Sarah; Islam, Zahed; Shost, Alyona; Prokhorova, Tatiana; Rybak, Natasha; Flanigan, Timothy

2015-01-01

Background Ukraine has the highest HIV burden of any European country with much of the current HIV epidemic concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) and their sexual partners. Opiate substitution therapy (OST) is limited in Ukraine and expansion of OST is urgently needed to help stem the tide of the HIV epidemic. Methods We accessed publicly available data in Ukraine in order to explore geographic variability with respect to prevalence of HIV, PWIDs and OST programmes. Results The regions of Ukraine with the largest number of opioid dependent persons (the south and eastern portions of the country) correspond to the regions with the highest HIV prevalence and HIV incidence. The number of opioid PWIDs per 100,000 population as well as the number of all OST treatment slots per 100,000 varied significantly across the three HIV prevalence categories. Overall, the proportion of individuals receiving either methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) or buprenorphine maintenance therapy (BMT) was quite low: average across categories: 7.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Additionally, less than half of OST patients receiving MMT or BMT were HIV positive patients. Conclusion There is significant geographic variability in both numbers of HIV positive individuals and numbers of PWIDs across Ukraine, however, there may be a more concentrated epidemic among PWIDs in many regions of the country. Scale up of addiction treatment for PWID, especially OST, can have a significant impact on preventing injection related morbidity, such as HIV and HCV infection. Ukraine can learn from the mistakes other nations have made in denying critical treatment opportunities to PWID. PMID:25304049

Geographic variability in HIV and injection drug use in Ukraine: implications for integration and expansion of drug treatment and HIV care.

PubMed

Zaller, Nickolas; Mazhnaya, Alonya; Larney, Sarah; Islam, Zahed; Shost, Alyona; Prokhorova, Tatiana; Rybak, Natasha; Flanigan, Timothy

2015-01-01

Ukraine has the highest HIV burden of any European country with much of the current HIV epidemic concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWIDs) and their sexual partners. Opiate substitution therapy (OST) is limited in Ukraine and expansion of OST is urgently needed to help stem the tide of the HIV epidemic. We accessed publicly available data in Ukraine in order to explore geographic variability with respect to prevalence of HIV, PWIDs and OST programmes. The regions of Ukraine with the largest number of opioid dependent persons (the south and eastern portions of the country) correspond to the regions with the highest HIV prevalence and HIV incidence. The number of opioid PWIDs per 100,000 population as well as the number of all OST treatment slots per 100,000 varied significantly across the three HIV prevalence categories. Overall, the proportion of individuals receiving either methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) or buprenorphine maintenance therapy (BMT) was quite low: average across categories: 7.3% and 0.4%, respectively. Additionally, less than half of OST patients receiving MMT or BMT were HIV positive patients. There is significant geographic variability in both numbers of HIV positive individuals and numbers of PWIDs across Ukraine, however, there may be a more concentrated epidemic among PWIDs in many regions of the country. Scale up of addiction treatment for PWID, especially OST, can have a significant impact on preventing injection related morbidity, such as HIV and HCV infection. Ukraine can learn from the mistakes other nations have made in denying critical treatment opportunities to PWID. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratification of a cityscape using census and land use variables for inventory of building materials

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenfield, G.H.; Fitzpatrick-Lins, K.; Johnson, T.L.

1987-01-01

A cityscape (or any landscape) can be stratified into environmental units using multiple variables of information. For the purposes of sampling building materials, census and land use variables were used to identify similar strata. In the Metropolitan Statistical Area of a cityscape, the census tract is the smallest unit for which census data are summarized and digitized boundaries are available. For purposes of this analysis, census data on total population, total number of housing units, and number of singleunit dwellings were aggregated into variables of persons per square kilometer and proportion of housing units in single-unit dwellings. The level 2 categories of the U.S. Geological Survey's land use and land cover data base were aggregated into variables of proportion of residential land with buildings, proportion of nonresidential land with buildings, and proportion of open land. The cityscape was stratified, from these variables, into environmental strata of Urban Central Business District, Urban Livelihood Industrial Commercial, Urban Multi-Family Residential, Urban Single Family Residential, Non-Urban Suburbanizing, and Non-Urban Rural. The New England region was chosen as a region with commonality of building materials, and a procedure developed for trial classification of census tracts into one of the strata. Final stratification was performed by discriminant analysis using the trial classification and prior probabilities as weights. The procedure was applied to several cities, and the results analyzed by correlation analysis from a field sample of building materials. The methodology developed for stratification of a cityscape using multiple variables has application to many other types of environmental studies, including forest inventory, hydrologic unit management, waste disposal, transportation studies, and other urban studies. Multivariate analysis techniques have recently been used for urban stratification in England. ?? 1987 Annals of Regional Science.

TEC Longitude Difference Using GIMS and the IRI Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natali, Maria Paula; Meza, Amalia Margarita; Mendoza, Gastón

2016-07-01

The main geomagnetic field declination has a global distribution with positive and negative values showing maximum east-west differences over North America and Oceania and minimum differences over America and Asia. Several authors study one or more of these regions using TEC data derived from GNSS observations to describe variations in TEC. They reported a pronounced longitudinal variation respect to zero magnetic declination. One of the important factors that cause the longitude difference at mid-latitude is a combined effect of the longitude variations of magnetic declination and the variations of the zonal thermospheric winds with local time. We propose to study this effect using Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) and the respective TEC values generated from the International Reference Ionospheric (IRI) model, during a solar cycle, applying Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our works is focused over different local times and regions at mid-latitude. PCA involves a mathematical procedure that transforms a number of correlated variables into a number of uncorrelated variables using the data itself. The spatial structure of the ionosphere variability and its temporal evolution, together are called modes, and there are ordered according to their percentage of the variability of data from highest to lowest. In this analysis the first mode has more than the 90 % of the variability, representing the nominal behavior of the ionosphere, and the second and third modes are the more important for our analysis, because they show the strong longitudinal variation in the different regions using either GIMs or the IRI model.

Variable Selection through Correlation Sifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jim C.; Jojic, Nebojsa

Many applications of computational biology require a variable selection procedure to sift through a large number of input variables and select some smaller number that influence a target variable of interest. For example, in virology, only some small number of viral protein fragments influence the nature of the immune response during viral infection. Due to the large number of variables to be considered, a brute-force search for the subset of variables is in general intractable. To approximate this, methods based on ℓ1-regularized linear regression have been proposed and have been found to be particularly successful. It is well understood however that such methods fail to choose the correct subset of variables if these are highly correlated with other "decoy" variables. We present a method for sifting through sets of highly correlated variables which leads to higher accuracy in selecting the correct variables. The main innovation is a filtering step that reduces correlations among variables to be selected, making the ℓ1-regularization effective for datasets on which many methods for variable selection fail. The filtering step changes both the values of the predictor variables and output values by projections onto components obtained through a computationally-inexpensive principal components analysis. In this paper we demonstrate the usefulness of our method on synthetic datasets and on novel applications in virology. These include HIV viral load analysis based on patients' HIV sequences and immune types, as well as the analysis of seasonal variation in influenza death rates based on the regions of the influenza genome that undergo diversifying selection in the previous season.

Experimental investigation of wall shock cancellation and reduction of wall interference in transonic testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferri, A.; Roffe, G.

1975-01-01

A series of experiments were performed to evaluate the effectiveness of a three-dimensional land and groove wall geometry and a variable permeability distribution to reduce the interference produced by the porous walls of a supercritical transonic test section. The three-dimensional wall geometry was found to diffuse the pressure perturbations caused by small local mismatches in wall porosity permitting the use of a relatively coarse wall porosity control to reduce or eliminate wall interference effects. The wall porosity distribution required was found to be a sensitive function of Mach number requiring that the Mach number repeatability characteristics of the test apparatus be quite good. The effectiveness of a variable porosity wall is greatest in the upstream region of the test section where the pressure differences across the wall are largest. An effective variable porosity wall in the down stream region of the test section requires the use of a slightly convergent test section geometry.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

2018-06-01

Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

Italian regional health system structure and expected cancer survival.

PubMed

Vercelli, Marina; Lillini, Roberto; Quaglia, Alberto; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Few studies deal with the association of socioeconomic and health system resource variables with cancer survival at the Italian regional level, where the greatest number of decisions about social and health policies and resource allocations are taken. The present study aimed to describe the causal relationships between socioeconomic and health system resource factors and regional cancer survival and to compute the expected cancer survival at provincial, regional and area levels. Age-standardized relative survival at 5 years from diagnosis of cases incident in 1995-1998 and followed up to 2004 were derived by gender for 11 sites from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries data bank. The socioeconomic and health system resource variables, describing at a regional level the macro-economy, demography, labor market, and health resources for 1995-2005, came from the Health for All database. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the socioeconomic and health system resource variables. For every site, linear regression models were computed considering the relative survival at 5 years as a dependent variable and the principal components factor analysis factors as independent variables. The factors described the socioeconomic and health-related features of the regional systems and were causally related to the characteristics of the patient taken in charge. The models built by the factors allowed computation of the expected relative survival at 5 years with very good concordance with those observed at regional, macro-regional and national levels. In the regions without any cancer registry, survival was coherent with that of neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic and health system resources characteristics. The models highlighted the causal correlations between socioeconomic and health system resources and cancer survival, suggesting that they could be good evaluation tools for the efficiency of the resources allocation and use.

[Level of funding in the Long-Term Care Law: the cost of moving toward real dependency variables].

PubMed

Correa Gómez, Manuel; Montero Granados, Roberto; Jiménez Aguilera, Juan de Dios

2011-12-01

The system for the Promotion of Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons established by Act 39/2006 is funded through private contributions of dependent individuals and earmarked transfers in three main funds: a minimum level, an agreed level distributed among the various autonomous regions according to their relative needs, and a further voluntary additional contribution by Spain's autonomous regions. The resources distributed by the state to the regions are assigned, among other less important variables, according to the potentially dependent population and, to a lesser extent, according to the population already evaluated as dependent. Because the concept of what constitutes disability has changed over the years from the population potentially dependent according to an estimate (estimated dependent individuals) to the actual number of dependent individuals recognized as such (declared dependent), some autonomous regions may have been overfunded or underfunded. The funding obtained by the autonomous regions each year from 2007 to 2011 was compared with the funding that would have been assigned to each region if, since 2007, the variables and weighting that will be representative of the funding needs for 2013 (distribution mainly according to declared dependent individuals) had been taken into account. From 2007-2011, regions where declared dependent persons outnumbered estimated disabled persons were underfunded (in Andalusia by more than 100 million euros). In contrast, regions where the situation was reversed were overfunded (by 49 million euros in Madrid and 37 million euros in the region of Valencia). There is wide variation in public funding to the autonomous regions, depending on the number of individuals declared as dependent. Among other no less serious consequences, this situation could hamper the implantation of the Promotion of Personal Autonomy and Care of Dependent Persons Act in underfunded regions. Copyright © 2011 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Decadal trend of precipitation and temperature patterns and impacts on snow-related variables in a semiarid region, Sierra Nevada, Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2016-04-01

In the current context of global change, mountainous areas constitute singular locations in which these changes can be traced. Early detection of significant shifts of snow state variables in semiarid regions can help assess climate variability impacts and future snow dynamics in northern latitudes. The Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, is a representative example of snow areas in Mediterranean-climate regions and both monitoring and modelling efforts have been performed to assess this variability and its significant scales. This work presents a decadal trend analysis throughout the 50-yr period 1960-2010 performed on some snow-related variables over Sierra Nevada, in Spain, which is included in the global climate change observatories network around the world. The study area comprises 4583 km2 distributed throughout the five head basins influenced by these mountains, with altitude values ranging from 140 to 3479 m.a.s.l., just 40 km from the Mediterranean coastline. Meteorological variables obtained from 44 weather stations from the National Meteorological Agency were studied and further used as input to the distributed hydrological model WiMMed (Polo et al., 2010), operational at the study area, to obtain selected snow variables. Decadal trends were obtained, together with their statistical significance, over the following variables, averaged over the whole study area: (1) annual precipitation; (2) annual snowfall; annual (3) mean, (4) maximum and (5) minimum daily temperature; annual (6) mean and (7) maximum daily fraction of snow covered areas; (8) annual number of days with snow cover; (9) mean and (10) maximum daily snow water equivalent; (11) annual number of extreme precipitation events; and (12) mean intensity of the annual extreme precipitation events. These variables were also studied over each of the five regions associated to each basin in the range. Globally decreasing decadal trends were obtained for all the meteorological variables, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.

Basketball lay-up - foot loading characteristics and the number of trials necessary to obtain stable plantar pressure variables.

PubMed

Chua, YaoHui K; Quek, Raymond K K; Kong, Pui W

2017-03-01

This study aimed (1) to profile the plantar loading characteristics when performing the basketball lay-up in a realistic setting and (2) to determine the number of trials necessary to establish a stable mean for plantar loading variables during the lay-up. Thirteen university male basketball players [age: 23.0 (1.4) years, height: 1.75 (0.05) m, mass: 68.4 (8.6) kg] performed ten successful basketball lay-ups from a stationary position. Plantar loading variables were recorded using the Novel Pedar-X in-shoe system. Loading variables including peak force, peak pressure, and pressure-time integral were extracted from eight foot regions. Performance stability of plantar loading variables during the take-off and landing steps were assessed using the sequential averaging technique and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). High plantar loadings were experienced at the heel during the take-off steps, and both the heel and forefoot regions upon landing. The sequential estimation technique revealed a five-eight trial range to achieve a stable mean across all plantar loading variables, whereas ICC analysis was insensitive to inter-trial differences of repeated lay-up performances. Future studies and performance evaluation protocols on plantar loading during basketball lay-ups should include at least eight trials to ensure that the measurements obtained are sufficiently stable.

spa typing for epidemiological surveillance of Staphylococcus aureus.

PubMed

Hallin, Marie; Friedrich, Alexander W; Struelens, Marc J

2009-01-01

The spa typing method is based on sequencing of the polymorphic X region of the protein A gene (spa), present in all strains of Staphylococcus aureus. The X region is constituted of a variable number of 24-bp repeats flanked by well-conserved regions. This single-locus sequence-based typing method combines a number of technical advantages, such as rapidity, reproducibility, and portability. Moreover, due to its repeat structure, the spa locus simultaneously indexes micro- and macrovariations, enabling the use of spa typing in both local and global epidemiological studies. These studies are facilitated by the establishment of standardized spa type nomenclature and Internet shared databases.

Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.

2003-10-01

We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the ``sorting all permutations'' method of selecting the most frequently occurring variables, we show that the results of a single 10-variable discriminant analysis are consistent with the ranking. We demonstrate that individually, the variables considered here have little ability to differentiate between flaring and flare-quiet populations, but with multivariable combinations, the populations may be distinguished.

Work environment, volume of activity and staffing in neonatal intensive care units in Italy: results of the SONAR-nurse study.

PubMed

Corchia, Carlo; Fanelli, Simone; Gagliardi, Luigi; Bellù, Roberto; Zangrandi, Antonello; Persico, Anna; Zanini, Rinaldo

2016-04-02

Neonatal units' volume of activity, and other quantitative and qualitative variables, such as staffing, workload, work environment, care organization and geographical location, may influence the outcome of high risk newborns. Data about the distribution of these variables and their relationships among Italian neonatal units are lacking. Between March 2010-April 2011, 63 neonatal intensive care units adhering to the Italian Neonatal Network participated in the SONAR Nurse study. Their main features and work environment were investigated by questionnaires compiled by the chief and by physicians and nurses of each unit. Twelve cross-sectional monthly-repeated surveys on different shifts were performed, collecting data on number of nurses on duty and number and acuity of hospitalized infants. Six hundred forty five physicians and 1601 nurses compiled the questionnaires. In the cross-sectional surveys 702 reports were collected, with 11082 infant and 3226 nurse data points. A high variability was found for units' size (4-50 total beds), daily number of patients (median 14.5, range 3.4-48.7), number of nurses per shift (median 4.2, range 0.7-10.8) and number of team meetings per month. Northern regions performed better than Central and Southern regions for frequency of training meetings, qualitative assessment of performance, motivation within the unit and nursing work environment; mean physicians' and nurses' age increased moving from North to South. After stratification by terciles of the mean daily number of patients, the median number of nurses per shift increased at increasing volume of activity, while the opposite was found for the nurse-to-patient ratio adjusted by patients' acuity. On average, in units belonging to the lower tercile there was 1 nurse every 2.5 patients, while in those belonging to the higher tercile the ratio was 1 nurse every 5 patients. In Italy, there is a high variability in organizational characteristics and work environment among neonatal units and an uneven distribution of human resources in relation to volume of activity, suggesting that the larger the unit the greater the workload for each nurse. Urgent modifications in planning and organization of services are needed in order to pursue more efficient, homogeneous and integrated regionalized neonatal care systems.

Effects of climate on numbers of northern prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, Diane L.

1995-01-01

The amount of water held in individual wetland basins depends not only on local climate patterns but also on groundwater flow regime, soil permeability, and basin size. Most wetland basins in the northern prairies hold water in some years and are dry in others. To assess the potential effect of climate change on the number of wetland basins holding water in a given year, one must first determine how much of the variability in number of wet basins is accounted for by climatic variables. I used multiple linear regression to examine the relationship between climate variables and percentage of wet basins throughout the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada and the United States. The region was divided into three areas: parkland, Canadian grassland, and United States grassland (i.e., North Dakota and South Dakota). The models - which included variables for spring and fall temperature, yearly precipitation, the previous year's count of wet basins, and for grassland areas, the previous fall precipitation - accounted for 63 to 65% of the variation in the number of wet basins. I then explored the sensitivities of the models to changes in temperature and precipitation, as might be associated with increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Parkland wetlands are shown to be much more vulnerable to increased temperatures than are wetlands in either Canadian or United States grasslands. Sensitivity to increased precipitation did not vary geographically. These results have implications for waterfowl and other wildlife populations that depend on availability of wetlands in the parklands for breeding or during periods of drought in the southern grasslands.

Comparative genomics of wild type yeast strains unveils important genome diversity

PubMed Central

Carreto, Laura; Eiriz, Maria F; Gomes, Ana C; Pereira, Patrícia M; Schuller, Dorit; Santos, Manuel AS

2008-01-01

Background Genome variability generates phenotypic heterogeneity and is of relevance for adaptation to environmental change, but the extent of such variability in natural populations is still poorly understood. For example, selected Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains are variable at the ploidy level, have gene amplifications, changes in chromosome copy number, and gross chromosomal rearrangements. This suggests that genome plasticity provides important genetic diversity upon which natural selection mechanisms can operate. Results In this study, we have used wild-type S. cerevisiae (yeast) strains to investigate genome variation in natural and artificial environments. We have used comparative genome hybridization on array (aCGH) to characterize the genome variability of 16 yeast strains, of laboratory and commercial origin, isolated from vineyards and wine cellars, and from opportunistic human infections. Interestingly, sub-telomeric instability was associated with the clinical phenotype, while Ty element insertion regions determined genomic differences of natural wine fermentation strains. Copy number depletion of ASP3 and YRF1 genes was found in all wild-type strains. Other gene families involved in transmembrane transport, sugar and alcohol metabolism or drug resistance had copy number changes, which also distinguished wine from clinical isolates. Conclusion We have isolated and genotyped more than 1000 yeast strains from natural environments and carried out an aCGH analysis of 16 strains representative of distinct genotype clusters. Important genomic variability was identified between these strains, in particular in sub-telomeric regions and in Ty-element insertion sites, suggesting that this type of genome variability is the main source of genetic diversity in natural populations of yeast. The data highlights the usefulness of yeast as a model system to unravel intraspecific natural genome diversity and to elucidate how natural selection shapes the yeast genome. PMID:18983662

A multi-agency nutrient dataset used to estimate loads, improve monitoring design, and calibrate regional nutrient SPARROW models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saad, David A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Robertson, Dale M.; Booth, Nathaniel

2011-01-01

Stream-loading information was compiled from federal, state, and local agencies, and selected universities as part of an effort to develop regional SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models to help describe the distribution, sources, and transport of nutrients in streams throughout much of the United States. After screening, 2,739 sites, sampled by 73 agencies, were identified as having suitable data for calculating long-term mean annual nutrient loads required for SPARROW model calibration. These sites had a wide range in nutrient concentrations, loads, and yields, and environmental characteristics in their basins. An analysis of the accuracy in load estimates relative to site attributes indicated that accuracy in loads improve with increases in the number of observations, the proportion of uncensored data, and the variability in flow on observation days, whereas accuracy declines with increases in the root mean square error of the water-quality model, the flow-bias ratio, the number of days between samples, the variability in daily streamflow for the prediction period, and if the load estimate has been detrended. Based on compiled data, all areas of the country had recent declines in the number of sites with sufficient water-quality data to compute accurate annual loads and support regional modeling analyses. These declines were caused by decreases in the number of sites being sampled and data not being entered in readily accessible databases.

Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

PubMed

Zhou, Guofa; Minakawa, Noboru; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2004-02-24

The causes of the recent reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum epidemic malaria in the East African highlands are controversial. Regional climate changes have been invoked as a major factor; however, assessing the impact of climate in malaria resurgence is difficult due to high spatial and temporal climate variability and the lack of long-term data series on malaria cases from different sites. Climate variability, defined as short-term fluctuations around the mean climate state, may be epidemiologically more relevant than mean temperature change, but its effects on malaria epidemics have not been rigorously examined. Here we used nonlinear mixed-regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa. The model explained 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients. Nonlinear and synergistic effects of temperature and rainfall on the number of malaria outpatients were found in all seven sites. The net variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients caused by autoregression and seasonality varied among sites and ranged from 18 to 63% (mean=38.6%), whereas 12-63% (mean=36.1%) of variance is attributed to climate variability. Our results suggest that there was a high spatial variation in the sensitivity of malaria outpatient number to climate fluctuations in the highlands, and that climate variability played an important role in initiating malaria epidemics in the East African highlands.

Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

2009-04-01

In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying correlations between published datasets and local geographic/geological conditions. Available data included regional SCF figures from the United Kingdom and from France, together with nationally-consolidated results from a number of other European countries. Analysis of this data shows significant variability between different countries and from region to region within those countries where regional data is available. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary geologies, particularly high porosity limestones etc., exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous geologies demonstrate relatively constant, albeit somewhat higher, radon concentration levels. Examples of the former can be found in the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France. Greatest variability is found in Switzerland, still subject to the ongoing Alpine orogeny, where the inhabited part of the country is largely overlain with recently-deposited light, porous sediments. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsular in England, and Auvergne and the Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt, which extends from the Iberian peninsular through South-West Ireland and South-West England to France and Germany.

Variables Influencing Credit Card Balances of Students at a Midwestern University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mattson, Lucretia; Sahlhoff, Kathleen; Blackstone, Judith; Peden, Blaine; Nahm, Abraham Y.

2004-01-01

This research used a Web-based survey of students at a Midwest regional university to measure the extent of credit card use by first-year students and seniors. The results indicate that the variables influencing credit card use and the carrying of a balance from one month to the next include the number of cards held by the student, the student's…

Temporal analysis of the frequency and duration of low and high streamflow: Years of record needed to characterize streamflow variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huh, S.; Dickey, D.A.; Meador, M.R.; Ruhl, K.E.

2005-01-01

A temporal analysis of the number and duration of exceedences of high- and low-flow thresholds was conducted to determine the number of years required to detect a level shift using data from Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Two methods were used - ordinary least squares assuming a known error variance and generalized least squares without a known error variance. Using ordinary least squares, the mean number of years required to detect a one standard deviation level shift in measures of low-flow variability was 57.2 (28.6 on either side of the break), compared to 40.0 years for measures of high-flow variability. These means become 57.6 and 41.6 when generalized least squares is used. No significant relations between years and elevation or drainage area were detected (P>0.05). Cluster analysis did not suggest geographic patterns in years related to physiography or major hydrologic regions. Referring to the number of observations required to detect a one standard deviation shift as 'characterizing' the variability, it appears that at least 20 years of record on either side of a shift may be necessary to adequately characterize high-flow variability. A longer streamflow record (about 30 years on either side) may be required to characterize low-flow variability. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Population density, age distribution and urbanisation as factors influencing the frequency of home visits--an analysis for Mecklenburg-West Pomerania].

PubMed

Heymann, R; Weitmann, K; Weiss, S; Thierfelder, D; Flessa, S; Hoffmann, W

2009-07-01

This study examines and compares the frequency of home visits by general practitioners in regions with a lower population density and regions with a higher population density. The discussion centres on the hypothesis whether the number of home visits in rural and remote areas with a low population density is, in fact, higher than in urbanised areas with a higher population density. The average age of the population has been considered in both cases. The communities of Mecklenburg West-Pomerania were aggregated into postal code regions. The analysis is based on these postal code regions. The average frequency of home visits per 100 inhabitants/km2 has been calculated via a bivariate, linear regression model with the population density and the average age for the postal code region as independent variables. The results are based on billing data of the year 2006 as provided by the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In a second step a variable which clustered the postal codes of urbanised areas was added to a multivariate model. The hypothesis of a negative correlation between the frequency of home visits and the population density of the areas examined cannot be confirmed for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Following the dichotomisation of the postal code regions into sparsely and densely populated areas, only the very sparsely populated postal code regions (less than 100 inhabitants/km2) show a tendency towards a higher frequency of home visits. Overall, the frequency of home visits in sparsely populated postal code regions is 28.9% higher than in the densely populated postal code regions (more than 100 inhabitants/km2), although the number of general practitioners is approximately the same in both groups. In part this association seems to be confirmed by a positive correlation between the average age in the individual postal code regions and the number of home visits carried out in the area. As calculated on the basis of the data at hand, only the very sparsely populated areas with a still gradually decreasing population show a tendency towards a higher frequency of home visits. According to the data of 2006, the number of home visits remains high in sparsely populated areas. It may increase in the near future as the number of general practitioners in these areas will gradually decrease while the number of immobile and older inhabitants will increase.

Ionospheric responses during equinox and solstice periods over Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karatay, Secil; Cinar, Ali; Arikan, Feza

2017-11-01

Ionospheric electron density is the determining variable for investigation of the spatial and temporal variations in the ionosphere. Total Electron Content (TEC) is the integral of the electron density along a ray path that indicates the total variability through the ionosphere. Global Positioning System (GPS) recordings can be utilized to estimate the TEC, thus GPS proves itself as a useful tool in monitoring the total variability of electron distribution within the ionosphere. This study focuses on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over Turkey that can be grouped into anomalies during equinox and solstice periods using TEC estimates obtained by a regional GPS network. It is observed that noon time depletions in TEC distributions predominantly occur in winter for minimum Sun Spots Numbers (SSN) in the central regions of Turkey which also exhibit high variability due to midlatitude winter anomaly. TEC values and ionospheric variations at solstice periods demonstrate significant enhancements compared to those at equinox periods.

A model for the flux-r.m.s. correlation in blazar variability or the minijets-in-a-jet statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biteau, J.; Giebels, B.

2012-12-01

Very high energy gamma-ray variability of blazar emission remains of puzzling origin. Fast flux variations down to the minute time scale, as observed with H.E.S.S. during flares of the blazar PKS 2155-304, suggests that variability originates from the jet, where Doppler boosting can be invoked to relax causal constraints on the size of the emission region. The observation of log-normality in the flux distributions should rule out additive processes, such as those resulting from uncorrelated multiple-zone emission models, and favour an origin of the variability from multiplicative processes not unlike those observed in a broad class of accreting systems. We show, using a simple kinematic model, that Doppler boosting of randomly oriented emitting regions generates flux distributions following a Pareto law, that the linear flux-r.m.s. relation found for a single zone holds for a large number of emitting regions, and that the skewed distribution of the total flux is close to a log-normal, despite arising from an additive process.

Multi-site study of diffusion metric variability: effects of site, vendor, field strength, and echo time on regions-of-interest and histogram-bin analyses.

PubMed

Helmer, K G; Chou, M-C; Preciado, R I; Gimi, B; Rollins, N K; Song, A; Turner, J; Mori, S

2016-02-27

It is now common for magnetic-resonance-imaging (MRI) based multi-site trials to include diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) as part of the protocol. It is also common for these sites to possess MR scanners of different manufacturers, different software and hardware, and different software licenses. These differences mean that scanners may not be able to acquire data with the same number of gradient amplitude values and number of available gradient directions. Variability can also occur in achievable b-values and minimum echo times. The challenge of a multi-site study then, is to create a common protocol by understanding and then minimizing the effects of scanner variability and identifying reliable and accurate diffusion metrics. This study describes the effect of site, scanner vendor, field strength, and TE on two diffusion metrics: the first moment of the diffusion tensor field (mean diffusivity, MD), and the fractional anisotropy (FA) using two common analyses (region-of-interest and mean-bin value of whole brain histograms). The goal of the study was to identify sources of variability in diffusion-sensitized imaging and their influence on commonly reported metrics. The results demonstrate that the site, vendor, field strength, and echo time all contribute to variability in FA and MD, though to different extent. We conclude that characterization of the variability of DTI metrics due to site, vendor, field strength, and echo time is a worthwhile step in the construction of multi-center trials.

Variability and trends of local/regional scale surface climate in northern Africa during the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djomou, Zéphirin Yepdo; Monkam, David; Woafo, Paul

2014-08-01

Four regions are detected in northern Africa (20° W-40° E, 0-30° N) by applying the cluster analysis method on the annual rainfall anomalies of the period 1901-2000. The first region (R1), an arid land, covers essentially the north of 17.75° N from west to east of the study zone. The second region (R2), a semiarid land with a Sahelian climate, less warm than the dry climate of R1, is centred on Chad, with almost regular extension to the west towards Mauritania, and to the east, including the north of the Central African Republic and the Sudan. The region 3 (R3), a wet land, is centred on the Ivory Coast and covers totally Liberia, the south part of Ghana, Togo, Benin and the southwest of Nigeria. The fourth region (R4), corresponding to the wet equatorial forest, covers a part of Senegal, the Central Africa, the south of Sudan and a part of Ethiopia. An analysis of observed temperature and precipitation variability and trends throughout the twentieth century over these regions is presented. Summer, winter and annual data are examined using a range of variability measures. Statistically, significant warming trends are found over the majority of regions. The trends have a magnitude of up to 1.5 K per century. Only a few precipitation trends are statistically significant. Regional temperature and precipitation show pronounced variability at scales from interannual to multi-decadal. The interannual variability shows significant variations and trends throughout the century, the latter being mostly negative for precipitation and both positive and negative for temperature. Temperature and precipitation anomalies show a chaotic-type behaviour in which the regional conditions oscillate around the long-term mean trend and occasionally fall into long-lasting (up to 10 years or more) anomaly regimes. A generally modest temporal correlation is found between anomalies of different regions and between temperature and precipitation anomalies for the same region. This correlation is mostly positive for temperature in cases of adjacent regions. Several cases of negative interregional precipitation anomaly correlation are found. The El Niño Southern Oscillation significantly affects the anomaly variability patterns over a number of regions, mainly regions 3 (R3) and 4 (R4), while the North Atlantic Oscillation significantly affects the variability over arid and semiarid regions, R1 and R2.

Natural selection reduced diversity on human y chromosomes.

PubMed

Wilson Sayres, Melissa A; Lohmueller, Kirk E; Nielsen, Rasmus

2014-01-01

The human Y chromosome exhibits surprisingly low levels of genetic diversity. This could result from neutral processes if the effective population size of males is reduced relative to females due to a higher variance in the number of offspring from males than from females. Alternatively, selection acting on new mutations, and affecting linked neutral sites, could reduce variability on the Y chromosome. Here, using genome-wide analyses of X, Y, autosomal and mitochondrial DNA, in combination with extensive population genetic simulations, we show that low observed Y chromosome variability is not consistent with a purely neutral model. Instead, we show that models of purifying selection are consistent with observed Y diversity. Further, the number of sites estimated to be under purifying selection greatly exceeds the number of Y-linked coding sites, suggesting the importance of the highly repetitive ampliconic regions. While we show that purifying selection removing deleterious mutations can explain the low diversity on the Y chromosome, we cannot exclude the possibility that positive selection acting on beneficial mutations could have also reduced diversity in linked neutral regions, and may have contributed to lowering human Y chromosome diversity. Because the functional significance of the ampliconic regions is poorly understood, our findings should motivate future research in this area.

Natural Selection Reduced Diversity on Human Y Chromosomes

PubMed Central

Wilson Sayres, Melissa A.; Lohmueller, Kirk E.; Nielsen, Rasmus

2014-01-01

The human Y chromosome exhibits surprisingly low levels of genetic diversity. This could result from neutral processes if the effective population size of males is reduced relative to females due to a higher variance in the number of offspring from males than from females. Alternatively, selection acting on new mutations, and affecting linked neutral sites, could reduce variability on the Y chromosome. Here, using genome-wide analyses of X, Y, autosomal and mitochondrial DNA, in combination with extensive population genetic simulations, we show that low observed Y chromosome variability is not consistent with a purely neutral model. Instead, we show that models of purifying selection are consistent with observed Y diversity. Further, the number of sites estimated to be under purifying selection greatly exceeds the number of Y-linked coding sites, suggesting the importance of the highly repetitive ampliconic regions. While we show that purifying selection removing deleterious mutations can explain the low diversity on the Y chromosome, we cannot exclude the possibility that positive selection acting on beneficial mutations could have also reduced diversity in linked neutral regions, and may have contributed to lowering human Y chromosome diversity. Because the functional significance of the ampliconic regions is poorly understood, our findings should motivate future research in this area. PMID:24415951

West African warming: Investigating Temperature Trends and their relation between Precipitation Trends over West African Sahel.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LY, M., Jr.

2014-12-01

It is now admitted that the West African region faces a lot of constraints due to the comprehensiveness of the high climate variability and potential climate change. This is mainly due to the lack of a large number of datasets and long-term records as summarized in the in the IPCC reports. This paper aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and future climate conditions, for better manage climate variability over seasons and from year to year and strengthen the capacity to adapt to future climate change. In this regards, we analyse the evolution of some extreme temperature and precipitation indices over a large area of West Africa. Prior results show a general warming trend at individual stations throughout the region during the period from 1960 to 2010, namely negative trends in the number of cool nights, and positive trends in the number of warm days and length of warm spells. Trends in rainfall-related indices are not as uniform as the ones in temperatures, rather they display marked multi-decadal variability, as expected. To refine analyses of temperature variations and their relation to precipitation we investigated on cluster analysis aimed at distinguishing different sub-regions, such as continental and coastal, and relevant seasons, such as wet, dry/cold and dry warm. This will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored temperature and precipitation trends to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters.

Maturation of Shark Single-Domain (IgNAR) Antibodies: Evidence for Induced-Fit Binding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stanfield, R.L.; Dooley, H.; Verdino, P.

2007-07-13

Sharks express an unusual heavy-chain isotype called IgNAR, whose variable regions bind antigen as independent soluble domains. To further probe affinity maturation of the IgNAR response, we structurally characterized the germline and somatically matured versions of a type II variable (V) region, both in the presence and absence of its antigen, hen egg-white lysozyme. Despite a disulfide bond linking complementarity determining regions (CDRs) 1 and 3, both germline and somatically matured V regions displayed significant structural changes in these CDRs upon complex formation with antigen. Somatic mutations in the IgNAR V region serve to increase the number of contacts withmore » antigen, as reflected by a tenfold increase in affinity, and one of these mutations appears to stabilize the CDR3 region. In addition, a residue in the HV4 loop plays an important role in antibody-antigen interaction, consistent with the high rate of somatic mutations in this non-CDR loop.« less

[Total knee and hip prosthesis: variables associated with costs].

PubMed

Herrera-Espiñeira, Carmen; Escobar, Antonio; Navarro-Espigares, José Luis; Castillo, Juan de Dios Lunadel; García-Pérez, Lidia; Godoy-Montijano, Amparo

2013-01-01

The elevated prevalence of osteoarthritis in Western countries, the high costs of hip and knee arthroplasty, and the wide variations in the clinical practice have generated considerable interest in comparing the associated costs before and after surgery. To determine the influence of a number of variables on the costs of total knee and hip arthroplasty surgery during the hospital stay and during the one-year post-discharge. A prospective multi-center study was performed in 15 hospitals from three Spanish regions. Relationships between the independent variables and the costs of hospital stay and postdischarge follow-up were analyzed by using multilevel models in which the "hospital" variable was used to group cases. Independent variables were: age, sex, body mass index, preoperative quality of life (SF-12, EQ-5 and Womac questionnaires), surgery (hip/knee), Charlson Index, general and local complications, number of beds and economic-institutional dependency of the hospital, the autonomous region to which it belongs, and the presence of a caregiver. The cost of hospital stay, excluding the cost of the prosthesis, was 4,734 Euros, and the post-discharge cost was 554 Euros. With regard to hospital stay costs, the variance among hospitals explained 44-46% of the total variance among the patients. With regard to the post-discharge costs, the variability among hospitals explained 7-9% of the variance among the patients. There is considerable potential for reducing the hospital stay costs of these patients, given that more than 44% of the observed variability was not determined by the clinical conditions of the patients but rather by the behavior of the hospitals.

MULTIPLE-LOCUS VARIABLE-NUMBER TANDEM REPEAT ANALYSIS OF BRUCELLA ISOLATES FROM THAILAND.

PubMed

Kumkrong, Khurawan; Chankate, Phanita; Tonyoung, Wittawat; Intarapuk, Apiradee; Kerdsin, Anusak; Kalambaheti, Thareerat

2017-01-01

Brucellosis-induced abortion can result in significant economic loss to farm animals. Brucellosis can be transmitted to humans during slaughter of infected animals or via consumption of contaminated food products. Strain identification of Brucella isolates can reveal the route of transmission. Brucella strains were isolated from vaginal swabs of farm animal, cow milk and from human blood cultures. Multiplex PCR was used to identify Brucella species, and owing to high DNA homology among Brucella isolates, multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) based on the number of tandem repeats at 16 different genomic loci was used for strain identification. Multiplex PCR categorized the isolates into B. abortus (n = 7), B. melitensis (n = 37), B. suis (n = 3), and 5 of unknown Brucella spp. MLVA-16 clustering analysis differentiated the strains into various genotypes, with Brucella isolates from the same geographic region being closely related, and revealed that the Thai isolates were phylogenetically distinct from those in other countries, including within the Southeast Asian region. Thus, MLVA-16 typing has utility in epidemiological studies.

Correlates of Three Year Transfer Student Retention Rates with Race, Gender, Age, Credit Hours, and Place of Residence at a Regional Public University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Michael Thomas

2011-01-01

This dissertation examined the relationship between the three year academic success of transfer students and the variables of race, gender, age, number of transfer credit hours, and place of residence. The study was conducted at Midwestern State University, a public, regional four-year institution and followed the incoming transfer classes of the…

Effect of shock waves on the statistics and scaling in compressible isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianchun; Wan, Minping; Chen, Song; Xie, Chenyue; Chen, Shiyi

2018-04-01

The statistics and scaling of compressible isotropic turbulence in the presence of large-scale shock waves are investigated by using numerical simulations at turbulent Mach number Mt ranging from 0.30 to 0.65. The spectra of the compressible velocity component, density, pressure, and temperature exhibit a k-2 scaling at different turbulent Mach numbers. The scaling exponents for structure functions of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are close to 1 at high orders n ≥3 . The probability density functions of increments of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables exhibit a power-law region with the exponent -2 . Models for the conditional average of increments of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are developed based on the ideal shock relations and are verified by numerical simulations. The overall statistics of the compressible velocity component and thermodynamic variables are similar to one another at different turbulent Mach numbers. It is shown that the effect of shock waves on the compressible velocity spectrum and kinetic energy transfer is different from that of acoustic waves.

A site specific model and analysis of the neutral somatic mutation rate in whole-genome cancer data.

PubMed

Bertl, Johanna; Guo, Qianyun; Juul, Malene; Besenbacher, Søren; Nielsen, Morten Muhlig; Hornshøj, Henrik; Pedersen, Jakob Skou; Hobolth, Asger

2018-04-19

Detailed modelling of the neutral mutational process in cancer cells is crucial for identifying driver mutations and understanding the mutational mechanisms that act during cancer development. The neutral mutational process is very complex: whole-genome analyses have revealed that the mutation rate differs between cancer types, between patients and along the genome depending on the genetic and epigenetic context. Therefore, methods that predict the number of different types of mutations in regions or specific genomic elements must consider local genomic explanatory variables. A major drawback of most methods is the need to average the explanatory variables across the entire region or genomic element. This procedure is particularly problematic if the explanatory variable varies dramatically in the element under consideration. To take into account the fine scale of the explanatory variables, we model the probabilities of different types of mutations for each position in the genome by multinomial logistic regression. We analyse 505 cancer genomes from 14 different cancer types and compare the performance in predicting mutation rate for both regional based models and site-specific models. We show that for 1000 randomly selected genomic positions, the site-specific model predicts the mutation rate much better than regional based models. We use a forward selection procedure to identify the most important explanatory variables. The procedure identifies site-specific conservation (phyloP), replication timing, and expression level as the best predictors for the mutation rate. Finally, our model confirms and quantifies certain well-known mutational signatures. We find that our site-specific multinomial regression model outperforms the regional based models. The possibility of including genomic variables on different scales and patient specific variables makes it a versatile framework for studying different mutational mechanisms. Our model can serve as the neutral null model for the mutational process; regions that deviate from the null model are candidates for elements that drive cancer development.

Relationships between Lifestyle, Living Environments, and Incidence of Hypertension in Japan (in Men): Based on Participant’s Data from the Nationwide Medical Check-Up

PubMed Central

Oka, Mayumi; Yamamoto, Mio; Mure, Kanae; Takeshita, Tatsuya; Arita, Mikio

2016-01-01

This study aims to investigate factors that contribute to the differences in incidence of hypertension between different regions in Japan, by accounting for not only individual lifestyles, but also their living environments. The target participants of this survey were individuals who received medical treatment for hypertension, as well as hypertension patients who have not received any treatment. The objective variable for analysis was the incidence of hypertension as data aggregated per prefecture. We used data (in men) including obesity, salt intake, vegetable intake, habitual alcohol consumption, habitual smoking, and number of steps walked per day. The variables within living environment included number of rail stations, standard/light vehicle usage, and slope of habitable land. In addition, we analyzed data for the variables related to medical environment including, participation rate in medical check-ups and number of hospitals. We performed multiple stepwise regression analyses to elucidate the correlation of these variables by using hypertension incidence as the objective variable. Hypertension incidence showed a significant negative correlation with walking and medical check-ups, and a significant positive correlation with light-vehicle usage and slope. Between the number of steps and variables related to the living environment, number of rail stations showed a significant positive correlation, while, standard- and light-vehicle usage showed significant negative correlation. Moreover, with stepwise multiple regression analysis, walking showed the strongest effect. The differences in daily walking based on living environment were associated with the disparities in the hypertension incidence in Japan. PMID:27788198

Diagnostic Characteristics of Submesoscale Coastal Surface Currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soh, Hyun Sup; Kim, Sung Yong

2018-03-01

Submesoscale kinetic energy (KE) spectra and fluxes at the length scales ranging from 2 to 25 km are estimated from hourly and O(1) km-scale coastal surface current maps observed from shore-based high-frequency radars off southern San Diego. The one-dimensional wave number-domain KE spectra of the surface currents have decay slopes between k-2 and k-3 at a wave number (k) of 0.5 km-1. The KE spectra exhibit anisotropy associated with anisotropic circulation, which is constrained by the shoreline and bottom bathymetry. Moreover, the KE spectra exhibit weak seasonality related to the regional submesoscale eddies and low-frequency circulation with weak seasonal variability. The estimated KE fluxes are categorized into four cases of purely forward cascades and inverse cascades at all wave numbers, inverse-then-forward cascades with a single zero-crossing within the range of wave numbers (0.04 to 0.5 km-1), and residuals, which account for approximately 33%, 39%, 19%, and 9% of the total number of realizations, respectively. An injection scale where forward enstrophy cascade and inverse energy cascade occur is estimated to be 5 to 10 km from the cases of the inverse-then-forward cascade, which is consistent with the length scales of the regional submesoscale eddies. Thus, the regional submesoscale processes are initiated by surface frontogenesis due to the weak seasonal low-frequency surface circulation and topography-related currents, then maintained by baroclinic instabilities associated with the seasonal mixed layer and O(10) km-scale submesoscale eddies with weak seasonal variability.

DISTINCT ANTIBODY SPECIES: STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES CREATING THERAPEUTIC OPPORTUNITIES

PubMed Central

Muyldermans, Serge; Smider, Vaughn V.

2016-01-01

Antibodies have been a remarkably successful class of molecules for binding a large number of antigens in therapeutic, diagnostic, and research applications. Typical antibodies derived from mouse or human sources use the surface formed by complementarity determining regions (CDRs) on the variable regions of the heavy chain/light chain heterodimer, which typically forms a relatively flat binding surface. Alternative species, particularly camelids and bovines, provide a unique paradigm for antigen recognition through novel domains which form the antigen binding paratope. For camelids, heavy chain antibodies bind antigen with only a single heavy chain variable region, in the absence of light chains. In bovines, ultralong CDR-H3 regions form an independently folding minidomain, which protrudes from the surface of the antibody and is diverse in both its sequence and disulfide patterns. The atypical paratopes of camelids and bovines potentially provide the ability to interact with different epitopes, particularly recessed or concave surfaces, compared to traditional antibodies. PMID:26922135

A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2016-07-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are considered.

Adaptation measures to drought in Mongolian rangeland: The long-distant movement of people and livestock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Coping with droughts are one of the most important issues in arid and semi-arid regions. Mongolia, where are located in central Asia, are concerned the increase of droughts in the future (IPCC 2014). Mongolia has long history of livestock grazing. Herders have developed the mobile grazing systems to use spatiotemporal variable vegetation. Especially, they often take a rapid and long-distant movement to avoid drought condition ("otor" in Mongolia). The movement is a main adaptation measure to droughts for herders, and it would be applicable to other regions where will be increase the frequency of droughts in the future. However there are few knowledge about processes and actual conditions of the long-distant movement of herders and livestock across Mongolia. Therefore our objective is to discuss the long-distance movement as adaptation measures to droughts. Mongolia has a climatic gradient along the latitude; rainfall variability in southern regions are higher than that in northern regions. Previous theoretical studies predicted that rainfall variability affect the grazing strategies. Based on them, we established two hypotheses about the relationship between climatic variability and the form of long distant movement. (1) The long-distance movement likely occur in southern regions because the frequency of drought are higher in southern regions than in northern regions (2) Cooperation among herders, such as acceptance of livestock that from other prefectures, are likely occur in southern regions while exclusive management are likely occur in northern regions. We interviewed to local herders, decision makers about the long-distant movement, and investigated the number of livestock that across the border of prefectures in recent year across Mongolia. We will discuss long-distant movements as an adaptation measure to drought thorough these results.

Creative use of pilot points to address site and regional scale heterogeneity in a variable-density model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dausman, Alyssa M.; Doherty, John; Langevin, Christian D.

2010-01-01

Pilot points for parameter estimation were creatively used to address heterogeneity at both the well field and regional scales in a variable-density groundwater flow and solute transport model designed to test multiple hypotheses for upward migration of fresh effluent injected into a highly transmissive saline carbonate aquifer. Two sets of pilot points were used within in multiple model layers, with one set of inner pilot points (totaling 158) having high spatial density to represent hydraulic conductivity at the site, while a second set of outer points (totaling 36) of lower spatial density was used to represent hydraulic conductivity further from the site. Use of a lower spatial density outside the site allowed (1) the total number of pilot points to be reduced while maintaining flexibility to accommodate heterogeneity at different scales, and (2) development of a model with greater areal extent in order to simulate proper boundary conditions that have a limited effect on the area of interest. The parameters associated with the inner pilot points were log transformed hydraulic conductivity multipliers of the conductivity field obtained by interpolation from outer pilot points. The use of this dual inner-outer scale parameterization (with inner parameters constituting multipliers for outer parameters) allowed smooth transition of hydraulic conductivity from the site scale, where greater spatial variability of hydraulic properties exists, to the regional scale where less spatial variability was necessary for model calibration. While the model is highly parameterized to accommodate potential aquifer heterogeneity, the total number of pilot points is kept at a minimum to enable reasonable calibration run times.

Relationship between regional population and healthcare delivery in Japan.

PubMed

Niga, Takeo; Mori, Maiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

2016-01-01

In order to address regional inequality in healthcare delivery in Japan, healthcare districts were established in 1985. However, regional healthcare delivery has now become a national issue because of population migration and the aging population. In this study, the state of healthcare delivery at the district level is examined by analyzing population, the number of physicians, and the number of hospital beds. The results indicate a continuing disparity in healthcare delivery among districts. We find that the rate of change in population has a strong positive correlation with that in the number of physicians and a weak positive correlation with that in the number of hospital beds. In addition, principal component analysis is performed on three variables: the rate of change in population, the number of physicians per capita, and the number of hospital beds per capita. This analysis suggests that the two principal components contribute 90.1% of the information. The first principal component is thought to show the effect of the regulations on hospital beds. The second principal component is thought to show the capacity to recruit physicians. This study indicates that an adjustment to the regulations on hospital beds as well as physician allocation by public funds may be key to resolving the impending issue of regionally disproportionate healthcare delivery.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard; Woollings, Tim

2016-04-01

In the upcoming North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), we present a synthesis of current knowledge about past, present and possible future climate change in the North Sea region. A climate change assessment from published scientific work has been conducted as a kind of regional IPCC report, and a book has been produced that will be published by Springer in 2016. In the framework of the NOSCCA project, we examine past and present studies of variability and changes in atmospheric variables within the North Sea region over the instrumental period, roughly the past 200 years, based on observations and reanalyses. The variables addressed in this presentation are large-scale circulation, pressure and wind, surface air temperature, precipitation and radiative properties (clouds, solar radiation, and sunshine duration). While air temperature over land, not unexpectedly, has increased everywhere in the North Sea region, with strongest trends in spring and in the north of the region, a precipitation increase has been observed in the north and a decrease in the south of the region. This pattern goes along with a north-eastward shift of storm tracks and is in agreement with climate model projections under enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. For other variables, it is not obvious which part of the observed changes may be due to anthropogenic activities and which is internally forced. It remains also unclear to what extent atmospheric circulation over the North Sea region is influenced by distant factors, in particular Arctic sea-ice decline in recent decades. There are indications of an increase in the number of deep cyclones (but not in the total number of cyclones), while storminess since the late 19th century shows no robust trends. The persistence of circulation types appears to have increased over the last century, and consequently, there is an indication for 'more extreme' extreme events. However, changes in extreme weather events are difficult to assess owing to homogeneity issues resulting for example from changes in instrumentation and station relocations. There is a wealth of as-yet undigitised data available for the North Sea region. Digitisation is a time-intensive process requiring thorough quality control, without which the digitised datasets may be useless or even counterproductive. Quality control requires human input and thus cannot be fully automated. We also compare reanalysis data, which can help detect inhomogeneities in observed time series, but at the same time are prone to biases and/or spurious trends introduced e.g. by changes in the availability and quality of assimilated data. It therefore remains unclear whether surface observation-based reanalysis fields prior to the 1970s are homogeneous.

Measurement of the intrinsic variability within protein crystals: implications for sample-evaluation and data-collection strategies.

PubMed

Bowler, Michael G; Bowler, Matthew W

2014-01-01

The advent of micro-focused X-ray beams has led to the development of a number of advanced methods of sample evaluation and data collection. In particular, multiple-position data-collection and helical oscillation strategies are now becoming commonplace in order to alleviate the problems associated with radiation damage. However, intra-crystal and inter-crystal variation means that it is not always obvious on which crystals or on which region or regions of a crystal these protocols should be performed. For the automation of this process for large-scale screening, and to provide an indication of the best strategy for data collection, a metric of crystal variability could be useful. Here, measures of the intrinsic variability within protein crystals are presented and their implications for optimal data-collection strategies are discussed.

Increased variability of stimulus-driven cortical responses is associated with genetic variability in children with and without dyslexia.

PubMed

Centanni, T M; Pantazis, D; Truong, D T; Gruen, J R; Gabrieli, J D E; Hogan, T P

2018-05-26

Individuals with dyslexia exhibit increased brainstem variability in response to sound. It is unknown as to whether increased variability extends to neocortical regions associated with audition and reading, extends to visual stimuli, and whether increased variability characterizes all children with dyslexia or, instead, a specific subset of children. We evaluated the consistency of stimulus-evoked neural responses in children with (N = 20) or without dyslexia (N = 12) as measured by magnetoencephalography (MEG). Approximately half of the children with dyslexia had significantly higher levels of variability in cortical responses to both auditory and visual stimuli in multiple nodes of the reading network. There was a significant and positive relationship between the number of risk alleles at rs6935076 in the dyslexia-susceptibility gene KIAA0319 and the degree of neural variability in primary auditory cortex across all participants. This gene has been linked with neural variability in rodents and in typical readers. These findings indicate that unstable representations of auditory and visual stimuli in auditory and other reading-related neocortical regions are present in a subset of children with dyslexia and support the link between the gene KIAA0319 and the auditory neural variability across children with or without dyslexia. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spread Spectrum Signal Characteristic Estimation Using Exponential Averaging and an AD-HOC Chip rate Estimator

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

Quadrature QPSK Quadrature Phase-Shift Keying RV Random Variable SHAC Single-Hop-Observation Auto- Correlation SINR Signal-to-Interference...The fast Fourier transform ( FFT ) accumulation method and the strip spectral correlation algorithm subdivide the support region in the bi-frequency...diamond shapes, while the strip spectral correlation algorithm subdivides the region into strips. Each strip covers a number of the FFT accumulation

Estimation of Damage Costs Associated with Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, T. A.; Wauthier, C.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the possibility of creating a mathematical function that enables the estimation of flood-damage costs. We begin by examining the costs associated with past flood events in the United States. The data on these tropical storms and hurricanes are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. With the location, extent of flooding, and damage reparation costs identified, we analyze variables such as: number of inches rained, land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. We seek to identify the leading drivers of high flood-damage costs and understand which variables play a large role in the costliness of these weather events. Upon completion of our mathematical analysis, we turn out attention to the 2017 natural disaster of Texas. We divide the region, as we did above, by land elevation, type of landscape, region development in regards to building density and infrastructure, and population concentration. Then, we overlay the number of inches rained in those regions onto the divided landscape and apply our function. We hope to use these findings to estimate the potential flood-damage costs of Hurricane Harvey. This information is then transformed into a hazard map that could provide citizens and businesses of flood-stricken zones additional resources for their insurance selection process.

Interannual Variability of the Bimodal Distribution of Summertime Rainfall Over Central America and Tropical Storm Activity in the Far-Eastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The summer climate of southern Mexico and Central America is characterized by a mid summer drought (MSD), where rainfall is reduced by 40% in July as compared to June and September. A mid-summer reduction in the climatological number of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones has also been noted. Little is understood about the climatology and interannual variability of these minima. The present study uses a novel approach to quantify the bimodal distribution of summertime rainfall for the globe and finds that this feature of the annual cycle is most extreme over Pan America and adjacent oceans. One dominant interannual signal in this region occurs the summer before a strong winter El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO. Before El Nino events the region is dry, the MSD is strong and centered over the ocean, and the mid-summer minimum in tropical cyclone frequency is most pronounced. This is significantly different from Neutral cases (non-El Nino and non-La Nina) when the MSD is weak and positioned over the land bridge. The MSD is highly variable for La Nina years, and there is not an obvious mid-summer minimum in the number of tropical cyclones.

Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

2018-01-01

Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

Characteristics of aggregation of daily rainfall in a middle-latitudes region during a climate variability in annual rainfall amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, Omar A.; Rozas, Daniel

Climate variability in annual rainfall occurs because the aggregation of daily rainfall changes. A topic open to debate is whether that change takes place because rainfall becomes more intense, or because it rains more often, or a combination of both. The answer to this question is of interest for water resources planning, hydrometeorological design, and agricultural management. Change in the number of rainy days can cause major disruptions in hydrological and ecological systems, with important economic and social effects. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily rainfall aggregation in ongoing climate variability provide a reference to evaluate the capability of GCM to simulate changes in the hydrologic cycle. In this research, we analyze changes in the aggregation of daily rainfall producing a climate positive trend in annual rainfall in central Argentina, in the southern middle-latitudes. This state-of-the-art agricultural region has a semiarid climate with dry and wet seasons. Weather effects in the region influence world-market prices of several crops. Results indicate that the strong positive trend in seasonal and annual rainfall amount is produced by an increase in number of rainy days. This increase takes place in the 3-month periods January-March (summer) and April-June (autumn). These are also the 3-month periods showing a positive trend in the mean of annual rainfall. The mean of the distribution of annual number of rainy day (ANRD) increased in 50% in a 36-year span (starting at 44 days/year). No statistically significant indications on time changes in the probability distribution of daily rainfall amount were found. Non-periodic fluctuations in the time series of annual rainfall were analyzed using an integral wavelet transform. Fluctuations with a time scale of about 10 and 20 years construct the trend in annual rainfall amount. These types of non-periodic fluctuations have been observed in other regions of the world. This suggests that results of this research could have further geographical validity.

Authorship trends in the Journal of Orthopaedic Research: A bibliometric analysis.

PubMed

Seetharam, Abhijit; Ali, Mohammed T; Wang, Christine Y; Schultz, Katherine E; Fischer, James P; Lunsford, Shatoria; Whipple, Elizabeth C; Loder, Randall T; Kacena, Melissa A

2018-05-18

Publications are an important tool to measure one's success and achievement in academia. They can help propel a career forward and move one into a position of leadership. The overall purpose of this study was to investigate changes in bibliometric variables, authorship, and collaboration trends in the Journal of Orthopaedic Research (JOR®), since its inception in 1983. A bibliometric analysis was completed for all manuscripts meeting the inclusion criteria (638), which were published throughout the inaugural year plus one representative year of each decade. Several parameters were investigated including numbers of manuscripts, authors, collaborating institutions/countries, references, pages, and citations; region of origin and gender of authors over time and by region were main focuses. Significant increases over time were observed in all bibliometric variables analyzed except in the number of pages and citations. There was an approximate 27% point increase for both female first and corresponding authors from 1983 to 2015. While this is most likely due to the increase in the number of women that have entered the field over time, similar increases in the percentage of women holding positions on the JOR editorial board or in leadership positions within in the field may have also contributed to improvements in gender parity. Understanding changes in publishing characteristics over time, by region, and by gender are critical, especially with the rising demands of publishing in academia. JOR has seen increase in most variables analyzed, including improvements in authorship by women in the field of orthopaedic research. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.

2015-01-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Fire activity as a function of fire-weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, José M.

2015-11-01

Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire-weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1985-01-01

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

Gravity-driven soap film dynamics in subcritical regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auliel, M. I.; Castro, F.; Sosa, R.; Artana, G.

2015-10-01

We undertake the analysis of soap-film dynamics with the classical approach of asymptotic expansions. We focus our analysis in vertical soap film tunnels operating in subcritical regimes with elastic Mach numbers Me=O(10-1) . Considering the associated set of nondimensional numbers that characterize this flow, we show that the flow behaves as a two-dimensional (2D) divergence free flow with variable mass density. When the soap film dynamics agrees with that of a 2D and almost constant mass density flow, the regions where the second invariant of the velocity gradient is non-null correspond to regions where the rate of change of film thickness is non-negligible.

Monitoring landscape influence on nearshore condition

EPA Science Inventory

A major source of stress to the Great Lakes comes from tributary and landscape run-off. The large number of watersheds and the disparate landuse within them create variability in the tributary input along the extent of the nearshore. Identifying the local or regional response t...

Using satellite-based measurements to explore spatiotemporal scales and variability of drivers of new particle formation

EPA Science Inventory

New particle formation (NPF) can potentially alter regional climate by increasing aerosol particle (hereafter particle) number concentrations and ultimately cloud condensation nuclei. The large scales on which NPF is manifest indicate potential to use satellite-based (inherently ...

Variability among the Most Rapidly Evolving Plastid Genomic Regions is Lineage-Specific: Implications of Pairwise Genome Comparisons in Pyrus (Rosaceae) and Other Angiosperms for Marker Choice

PubMed Central

Ter-Voskanyan, Hasmik; Allgaier, Martin; Borsch, Thomas

2014-01-01

Plastid genomes exhibit different levels of variability in their sequences, depending on the respective kinds of genomic regions. Genes are usually more conserved while noncoding introns and spacers evolve at a faster pace. While a set of about thirty maximum variable noncoding genomic regions has been suggested to provide universally promising phylogenetic markers throughout angiosperms, applications often require several regions to be sequenced for many individuals. Our project aims to illuminate evolutionary relationships and species-limits in the genus Pyrus (Rosaceae)—a typical case with very low genetic distances between taxa. In this study, we have sequenced the plastid genome of Pyrus spinosa and aligned it to the already available P. pyrifolia sequence. The overall p-distance of the two Pyrus genomes was 0.00145. The intergenic spacers between ndhC–trnV, trnR–atpA, ndhF–rpl32, psbM–trnD, and trnQ–rps16 were the most variable regions, also comprising the highest total numbers of substitutions, indels and inversions (potentially informative characters). Our comparative analysis of further plastid genome pairs with similar low p-distances from Oenothera (representing another rosid), Olea (asterids) and Cymbidium (monocots) showed in each case a different ranking of genomic regions in terms of variability and potentially informative characters. Only two intergenic spacers (ndhF–rpl32 and trnK–rps16) were consistently found among the 30 top-ranked regions. We have mapped the occurrence of substitutions and microstructural mutations in the four genome pairs. High AT content in specific sequence elements seems to foster frequent mutations. We conclude that the variability among the fastest evolving plastid genomic regions is lineage-specific and thus cannot be precisely predicted across angiosperms. The often lineage-specific occurrence of stem-loop elements in the sequences of introns and spacers also governs lineage-specific mutations. Sequencing whole plastid genomes to find markers for evolutionary analyses is therefore particularly useful when overall genetic distances are low. PMID:25405773

On the Interannual Variability and on Trends of the Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.; Naujokat, B.

1985-01-01

The new Reference Atmosphere presented here is based on global satellite data and forms a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the well known interannual variability which n themiddle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. Variability ofthe upper and lower stratospheres is discussed in detail. Areas covered included the polar region and the middile and lower latitudes. Temperature trends, notably the alteration of the global temperature structure by a number of anthropogenically influenced tract gases or the greenhouse effect is discussed.

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

2010-01-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. The results suggest that the model reproduces the number and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes with some accuracy, but that mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under-estimated (over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.

Aerosol cloud interactions in southeast Pacific stratocumulus: satellite observations, in situ data and regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, Rhea

The influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud radiative properties in the persistent southeast Pacific stratocumulus deck is investigated using MODIS satellite observations, in situ data from the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx), and WRF-Chem, a regional model with interactive chemistry and aerosols. An albedo proxy is derived based on the fractional coverage of low cloud (a macrophysical field) and the cloud albedo, with the latter broken down into contributions from microphysics (cloud droplet concentration, Nd and macrophysics (liquid water path). Albedo variability is dominated by low cloud fraction variability, except within 10-15° of the South American coast, where cloud albedo variability contributes significantly. Covariance between cloud fraction and cloud albedo also contributes significantly to the variance in albedo, which highlights how complex and inseparable the factors controlling albedo are. N d variability contributes only weakly, which emphasizes that attributing albedo variability to the indirect effects of aerosols against the backdrop of natural meteorological variability is extremely challenging. Specific cases of aerosol changes can have strong impacts on albedo. We identify a pathway for periodic anthropogenic aerosol transport to the unpolluted marine stratocumulus >1000 km offshore, which strongly enhances Nd and albedo in zonally-elongated 'hook'-shaped arc. Hook development occurs with Nd increasing to polluted levels over the remote ocean primarily due to entrainment of a large number of small aerosols from the free troposphere that contribute a relatively small amount of aerosol mass to the marine boundary layer. Strong, deep offshore flow needed to transport continental aerosols to the remote ocean is favored by a trough approaching the South American coast and a southeastward shift of the climatological subtropical high pressure system. DMS significantly influences the aerosol number and size distributions, but does not cause hooks. The Twomey effect contributes 50-80% of the total aerosol indirect effect (AIE) both near sources and offshore during hook events. Meteorological variability between simulations can swamp the signal of AIEs, particularly due to the binary model cloud fraction field and distinguishing AIE requires determination of appropriate spatial and temporal averaging scales over which AIE is significant above this noise.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-01-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 2. Application to Owens Valley, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guymon, Gary L.; Yen, Chung-Cheng

1990-07-01

The applicability of a deterministic-probabilistic model for predicting water tables in southern Owens Valley, California, is evaluated. The model is based on a two-layer deterministic model that is cascaded with a two-point probability model. To reduce the potentially large number of uncertain variables in the deterministic model, lumping of uncertain variables was evaluated by sensitivity analysis to reduce the total number of uncertain variables to three variables: hydraulic conductivity, storage coefficient or specific yield, and source-sink function. Results demonstrate that lumping of uncertain parameters reduces computational effort while providing sufficient precision for the case studied. Simulated spatial coefficients of variation for water table temporal position in most of the basin is small, which suggests that deterministic models can predict water tables in these areas with good precision. However, in several important areas where pumping occurs or the geology is complex, the simulated spatial coefficients of variation are over estimated by the two-point probability method.

Transition Heat Transfer Modeling Based on the Characteristics of Turbulent Spots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Fred; Boyle, Robert

1998-01-01

While turbulence models are being developed which show promise for simulating the transition region on a turbine blade or vane, it is believed that the best approach with the greatest potential for practical use is the use of models which incorporate the physics of turbulent spots present in the transition region. This type of modeling results in the prediction of transition region intermittency which when incorporated in turbulence models give a good to excellent prediction of the transition region heat transfer. Some models are presented which show how turbulent spot characteristics and behavior can be employed to predict the effect of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region. The models predict the spot formation rate which is needed, in addition to the transition onset location, in the Narasimha concentrated breakdown intermittency equation. A simplified approach is taken for modeling turbulent spot growth and interaction in the transition region which utilizes the turbulent spot variables governing transition length and spot generation rate. The models are expressed in terms of spot spreading angle, dimensionless spot velocity, dimensionless spot area, disturbance frequency and Mach number. The models are used in conjunction with a computer code to predict the effects of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region and compared with VKI experimental turbine data.

Relationship between the Names of People and Enterprises with Plant Origin with Phytotoponyms in Five Croatian Regions.

PubMed

Sindik, Joško; Carić, Tonko

2016-04-01

In this study, the first and last names of people (FN and LN), enterprises (EN) (with plants'species roots in their names) and phytotoponyms (PT) in five Croatian regions are analyzed, in their relationships. The goals of the study were: to determine the correlations between FN, LN, EN and PT; to determine the latent structure of these variables; to forecast number of PT (criterion) on the base of predictors (FN, LN, EN); to determine grouping of the places (within certain regions) as cases by two plants' categorizations; to determine grouping of the plants as cases by regions. We have analyzed 15 places, grouped in five regions, with 39 different plant species. The results revealed that the only principal component highly positively correlated with the variables last name and office name, while the projections for the variables first name (moderate high) and phytotoponyms (low size) were negative. Prediction of the criteria phytotoponyms is satisfactorily good, using three predictors: last name, first name and the office name. First cluster analysis revealed that phytotoponyms are mostly related with trees and deciduous plants, while names are related with trees, deciduous and herbaceous plants. Second cluster analysis obtained clear distinction between regions in dominant PTs, based on certain plants' names. The results indicate clear association between phytotoponyms and names of people.

The occurrence of non-pulsating stars in the γ Dor and δ Sct pulsation instability regions: Results from Kepler quarter 14–17 data

DOE PAGES

Guzik, J. A.; Bradley, P. A.; Jackiewicz, J.; ...

2015-04-21

In this study, the high precision long time-series photometry of the NASA Kepler spacecraft provides an excellent means to discover and characterize variability in main-sequence stars, and to make progress in interpreting the pulsations to derive stellar interior structure and test stellar models. For stars of spectral types A–F, the Kepler data revealed a number of surprises, such as more hybrid pulsating Sct and Dor pulsators than expected, pulsators lying outside of the instability regions predicted by theory, and stars that were expected to pulsate, but showed no variability. In our 2013 Astronomical Review article, we discussed the statistics ofmore » variability for 633 faint (Kepler magnitude 14–16) spectral type A–F stars observed by Kepler during Quarters 6–13 (June 2010–June 2012).« less

The occurrence of non-pulsating stars in the γ Dor and δ Sct pulsation instability regions: Results from Kepler quarter 14–17 data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guzik, J. A.; Bradley, P. A.; Jackiewicz, J.

In this study, the high precision long time-series photometry of the NASA Kepler spacecraft provides an excellent means to discover and characterize variability in main-sequence stars, and to make progress in interpreting the pulsations to derive stellar interior structure and test stellar models. For stars of spectral types A–F, the Kepler data revealed a number of surprises, such as more hybrid pulsating Sct and Dor pulsators than expected, pulsators lying outside of the instability regions predicted by theory, and stars that were expected to pulsate, but showed no variability. In our 2013 Astronomical Review article, we discussed the statistics ofmore » variability for 633 faint (Kepler magnitude 14–16) spectral type A–F stars observed by Kepler during Quarters 6–13 (June 2010–June 2012).« less

On the response of the regional testicular lymph nodes after unilateral vasectomy in rats.

PubMed Central

McDonald, S W; Scothorne, R J

1986-01-01

The histological response of the regional testicular lymph node has been studied at intervals from 1-12 weeks after unilateral vasectomy in rats. The criteria of a humoral immune response were increase in volume of the node, of number and size of germinal centres and of thickness and cellularity of medullary cords. Histological evidence of an immune response was delayed and variable, in conformity with serological data. Variability in the lymphatic drainage of the testis and epididymis has not been finally excluded as a cause of this variation in response. Variability of response did not seem to correlate with variation in site and size of the sperm granuloma, which is thought to be the principal site of leakage of sperm antigens. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 6 Fig. 7 Fig. 8 Fig. 9 PMID:3693048

Fagaceae Trees

Treesearch

Antoine Kremer; Manuela Casasoli; Teresa Barreneche; Catherine Bodenes; Paul Sisco; Thomas Kubisiak; Marta Scalfi; Stefano Leonardi; Erica Bakker; Joukje Buiteveld; Jeanne Romero-Severson; Kathiravetpillai Armuganathan; Jeremy Derory; Caroline Scotti-Saintagne; Guy Roussel; Maria Evangelista Bertocchi; Christian Lexer; Ilga Porth; Fred Hebard; Catherine Clark; John Carlson; Christophe Plomion; Hans-Peter Koelewijn; Fiorella Villani

2007-01-01

Worldwide, there are more than 1,000 species belonging to the Fagaceae. All Fagaceae species are woody plants and are spread throughout the northern hemisphere, from the tropical to the boreal regions. The family comprises seven genera (Govaerts and Frodin 1998), and the number of species is extremely variable among genera: Castanea (12), ...

USDA-ARS Hydrology Laboratory MISWG Hydrology Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, T. J.

1982-01-01

Current research being conducted in remote sensing techniques for measuring hydrologic parameters and variables deals with runoff curve numbers (CN), evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture. The CN and ET research utilizes visible and infrared measurements. Soil moisture investigations focus on the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Cytogenetics of the Brazilian whiptail lizard Cnemidophorus littoralis (Teiidae) from a restinga area (Barra de Maricá) in Southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Peccinini-Seale, D; Rocha, C F D; Almeida, T M B; Araújo, A F B; De Sena, M A

2004-08-01

Chromosomes of Cnemidophorus littoralis, a new species of teiid lizard recently described, were studied. The animals are from a restinga area in Barra de Maricá, RJ. The karyotype presents a diploid number of 2n = 46 chromosomes and a chromosomal sex determination mechanism of the type XX:XY. Nucleolar organizer regions, Ag-NORs, are at the sixth pair of chromosomes; there is variability of size and number of the Ag-stained nucleoli on the 50 interphase nuclei for each specimen analyzed. These nucleoli are related to NOR patterns that also demonstrated variability in size and number. This paper presents the first description of the karyotype of Cnemidophorus littoralis and of a chromosomal sex determination mechanism of the XX:XY type in the genus Cnemidophorus from Southeastern Brazil.

Diversity of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi strains collected from india using variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis.

PubMed

Sankar, Sathish; Kuppanan, Suresh; Nandagopal, Balaji; Sridharan, Gopalan

2013-08-01

Typhoid fever is endemic in India, and a seasonal increase of cases is observed annually. In spite of effective therapies and the availability of vaccines, morbidity is widespread owing to the circulation of multiple genetic variants, frequent migration of asymptomatic carriers, unhygienic food practices and the emergence of multidrug resistance and thus continues to be a major public health problem in developing countries, particularly in India. Classical methods of strain typing such as pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, ribotyping, random amplification of polymorphic DNA and amplified fragment length polymorphism are either laborious and technically complicated or less discriminatory. We investigated the molecular diversity of Indian strains of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) isolated from humans from different parts of India to establish the molecular epidemiology of the organism using the variable number tandem repeat (VNTR)-PCR analysis. The electrophoretic band pattern was analysed using the GelCompar II software program. Of the 94 strains tested for three VNTRs loci, 75 VNTR genotypes were obtained. Of the three VNTRs tested in this study, VNTR1 was amplified in all the strains except one and found to be predominant. VNTR2 was amplified only in 57 strains with a Simpson diversity index of 0.93 indicating the high variability of this region within the strains. VNTR3 was amplified in 90 strains. The discriminatory power of this typing tool has been greatly enhanced by this VNTR2 region as the other two regions could not discriminate strains significantly. In our study, about 55 % of the strains amplified all three VNTR regions and 39 % of the strains lacked the VNTR2 region. Among the three VNTR regions tested, the majority of the strains produced similar banding pattern for any two regions grouped into a cluster. The strains grouped as a genotype were from the same geographical location. Strains collected from each geographical region were also highly heterogeneous. Such analysis is important to identify the genetic clones of the pathogen associated with sporadic infections and disease outbreak to identify the common source and implement public health measures.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

2010-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Summer weather characteristics and periodicity observed over the period 1888-2013 in the region of Belgrade, Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vujović, Dragana; Todorović, Nedeljko; Paskota, Mira

2018-04-01

With the goal of finding summer climate patterns in the region of Belgrade (Serbia) over the period 1888-2013, different techniques of multivariate statistical analysis were used in order to analyze the simultaneous changes of a number of climatologic parameters. An increasing trend of the mean daily minimum temperature was detected. In the recent decades (1960-2013), this increase was much more pronounced. The number of days with the daily minimum temperature greater or equal to 20 °C also increased significantly. Precipitation had no statistically significant trend. Spectral analysis showed a repetitive nature of the climatologic parameters which had periods that roughly can be classified into three groups, with the durations of the following: (1) 6 to 7 years, (2) 10 to 18 years, and (3) 21, 31, and 41 years. The temperature variables mainly had one period of repetitiveness of 5 to 7 years. Among other variables, the correlations of regional fluctuations of the temperature and precipitation and atmospheric circulation indices were analyzed. The North Atlantic oscillation index had the same periodicity as that of the precipitation, and it was not correlated to the temperature variables. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index correlated well to the summer mean daily minimum and summer mean temperatures. The underlying structure of the data was analyzed by principal component analysis, which detected the following four easily interpreted dimensions: More sunshine-Higher temperature, Precipitation, Extreme heats, and Changeable summer.

Extreme infrared variables from UKIDSS - II. An end-of-survey catalogue of eruptive YSOs and unusual stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, P. W.; Smith, L. C.; Contreras Peña, C.; Froebrich, D.; Drew, J. E.; Kumar, M. S. N.; Borissova, J.; Minniti, D.; Kurtev, R.; Monguió, M.

2017-12-01

We present a catalogue of 618 high-amplitude infrared variable stars (1 < ΔK < 5 mag) detected by the two widely separated epochs of 2.2 μm data in the UKIDSS Galactic plane survey, from searches covering ∼1470 deg2. Most were discovered by a search of all fields at 30 < l < 230°. Sources include new dusty Mira variables, three new cataclysmic variable candidates, a blazar and a peculiar source that may be an interacting binary system. However, ∼60 per cent are young stellar obbjects (YSOs), based on spatial association with star-forming regions at distances ranging from 300 pc to over 10 kpc. This confirms our initial result in Contreras Peña et al. (Paper I) that YSOs dominate the high-amplitude infrared variable sky in the Galactic disc. It is also supported by recently published VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) results at 295 < l < 350°. The spectral energy distributions of the YSOs indicate class I or flat-spectrum systems in most cases, as in the VVV sample. A large number of variable YSOs are associated with the Cygnus X complex and other groups are associated with the North America/Pelican nebula, the Gemini OB1 molecular cloud, the Rosette complex, the Cone nebula, the W51 star-forming region and the S86 and S236 H II regions. Most of the YSO variability is likely due to variable/episodic accretion on time-scales of years, albeit usually less extreme than classical FUors and EXors. Luminosities at the 2010 Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer epoch range from ∼0.1 to 103 L⊙ but only rarely exceed 102.5 L⊙.

The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Polade, Suraj; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

Importance of Viral Sequence Length and Number of Variable and Informative Sites in Analysis of HIV Clustering.

PubMed

Novitsky, Vlad; Moyo, Sikhulile; Lei, Quanhong; DeGruttola, Victor; Essex, M

2015-05-01

To improve the methodology of HIV cluster analysis, we addressed how analysis of HIV clustering is associated with parameters that can affect the outcome of viral clustering. The extent of HIV clustering and tree certainty was compared between 401 HIV-1C near full-length genome sequences and subgenomic regions retrieved from the LANL HIV Database. Sliding window analysis was based on 99 windows of 1,000 bp and 45 windows of 2,000 bp. Potential associations between the extent of HIV clustering and sequence length and the number of variable and informative sites were evaluated. The near full-length genome HIV sequences showed the highest extent of HIV clustering and the highest tree certainty. At the bootstrap threshold of 0.80 in maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, 58.9% of near full-length HIV-1C sequences but only 15.5% of partial pol sequences (ViroSeq) were found in clusters. Among HIV-1 structural genes, pol showed the highest extent of clustering (38.9% at a bootstrap threshold of 0.80), although it was significantly lower than in the near full-length genome sequences. The extent of HIV clustering was significantly higher for sliding windows of 2,000 bp than 1,000 bp. We found a strong association between the sequence length and proportion of HIV sequences in clusters, and a moderate association between the number of variable and informative sites and the proportion of HIV sequences in clusters. In HIV cluster analysis, the extent of detectable HIV clustering is directly associated with the length of viral sequences used, as well as the number of variable and informative sites. Near full-length genome sequences could provide the most informative HIV cluster analysis. Selected subgenomic regions with a high extent of HIV clustering and high tree certainty could also be considered as a second choice.

Importance of Viral Sequence Length and Number of Variable and Informative Sites in Analysis of HIV Clustering

PubMed Central

Novitsky, Vlad; Moyo, Sikhulile; Lei, Quanhong; DeGruttola, Victor

2015-01-01

Abstract To improve the methodology of HIV cluster analysis, we addressed how analysis of HIV clustering is associated with parameters that can affect the outcome of viral clustering. The extent of HIV clustering and tree certainty was compared between 401 HIV-1C near full-length genome sequences and subgenomic regions retrieved from the LANL HIV Database. Sliding window analysis was based on 99 windows of 1,000 bp and 45 windows of 2,000 bp. Potential associations between the extent of HIV clustering and sequence length and the number of variable and informative sites were evaluated. The near full-length genome HIV sequences showed the highest extent of HIV clustering and the highest tree certainty. At the bootstrap threshold of 0.80 in maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, 58.9% of near full-length HIV-1C sequences but only 15.5% of partial pol sequences (ViroSeq) were found in clusters. Among HIV-1 structural genes, pol showed the highest extent of clustering (38.9% at a bootstrap threshold of 0.80), although it was significantly lower than in the near full-length genome sequences. The extent of HIV clustering was significantly higher for sliding windows of 2,000 bp than 1,000 bp. We found a strong association between the sequence length and proportion of HIV sequences in clusters, and a moderate association between the number of variable and informative sites and the proportion of HIV sequences in clusters. In HIV cluster analysis, the extent of detectable HIV clustering is directly associated with the length of viral sequences used, as well as the number of variable and informative sites. Near full-length genome sequences could provide the most informative HIV cluster analysis. Selected subgenomic regions with a high extent of HIV clustering and high tree certainty could also be considered as a second choice. PMID:25560745

The Mhc class II of the Black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) consists of low numbers of B and Y genes with variable diversity and expression.

PubMed

Strand, Tanja; Westerdahl, Helena; Höglund, Jacob; V Alatalo, Rauno; Siitari, Heli

2007-09-01

We found that the Black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) possess low numbers of Mhc class II B (BLB) and Y (YLB) genes with variable diversity and expression. We have therefore shown, for the first time, that another bird species (in this case, a wild lek-breeding galliform) shares several features of the simple Mhc of the domestic chicken (Gallus gallus). The Black grouse BLB genes showed the same level of polymorphism that has been reported in chicken, and we also found indications of balancing selection in the peptide-binding regions. The YLB genes were less variable than the BLB genes, also in accordance with earlier studies in chicken, although their functional significance still remains obscure. We hypothesize that the YLB genes could have been under purifying selection, just as the mammal Mhc-E gene cluster.

Population genetic studies of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus): A summary of available data and interpretation of results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Garner, G.W.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Cronin, M.A.; Dizon, Andrew E.; Chivers, Susan J.; Perrin, William F.

1997-01-01

A summary of existing population genetics literature is presented for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and interpreted in the context of the species' life-history characteristics and regional heterogeneity in environmental regimes and movement patterns. Several nongenetic data sets including morphology, contaminant levels, geographic variation in reproductive characteristics, and the location and distribution of open-water foraging habitat suggest some degree of spatial structuring. Eleven populations are recognized by the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. Few genetics studies exist for polar bears. Interpretation and generalizations of regional variation in intra- and interpopulation levels of genetic variability are confounded by the paucity of data from many regions and by the fact that no single informative genetic marker has been employed in multiple regions. Early allozyme studies revealed comparatively low levels of genetic variability and no compelling evidence of spatial structuring. Studies employing mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) also found low levels of genetic variation, a lack of phylogenetic structure, and no significant evidence for spatial variation in haplotype frequency. In contrast, microsatellite variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) loci have revealed significant heterogeneity in allele frequency among populations in the Canadian Arctic. These regions are characterized by archipelgic patterns of sea-ice movements. Further studies using highly polymorphic loci are needed in regions characterized by greater polar bear dependency on pelagic sea-ice movements and in regions for which no data currently exist (i.e., Laptev and Novaya Zemlya/Franz Josef).

Analysis of turbulent heat transfer, mass transfer, and friction in smooth tubes at high Prandtl and Schmidt numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deissler, Robert G

1955-01-01

The expression for eddy diffusivity from a previous analysis was modified in order to account for the effect of kinematic viscosity on the turbulence in the region close to a wall. By using the modified expression, good agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental results for heat and mass transfer at Prandtl and Schmidt numbers between 0.5 and 3000. The effects of length-to-diameter ratio and of variable viscosity were also investigated for a wide range of Prandtl numbers.

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, C.; Faust, E.

2013-01-01

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr - driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980-2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

A Fiji multi-coral δ18O composite approach to obtaining a more accurate reconstruction of the last two-centuries of the ocean-climate variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Linsley, Braddock K.; Corrège, Thierry; Wu, Henry C.; Lemley, Gavin M.; Howe, Steve; Cabioch, Guy

2014-12-01

The limited availability of oceanographic data in the tropical Pacific Ocean prior to the satellite era makes coral-based climate reconstructions a key tool for extending the instrumental record back in time, thereby providing a much needed test for climate models and projections. We have generated a unique regional network consisting of five Porites coral δ18O time series from different locations in the Fijian archipelago. Our results indicate that using a minimum of three Porites coral δ18O records from Fiji is statistically sufficient to obtain a reliable signal for climate reconstruction, and that application of an approach used in tree ring studies is a suitable tool to determine this number. The coral δ18O composite indicates that while sea surface temperature (SST) variability is the primary driver of seasonal δ18O variability in these Fiji corals, annual average coral δ18O is more closely correlated to sea surface salinity (SSS) as previously reported. Our results highlight the importance of water mass advection in controlling Fiji coral δ18O and salinity variability at interannual and decadal time scales despite being located in the heavy rainfall region of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Fiji δ18O composite presents a secular freshening and warming trend since the 1850s coupled with changes in both interannual (IA) and decadal/interdecadal (D/I) variance. The changes in IA and D/I variance suggest a re-organization of climatic variability in the SPCZ region beginning in the late 1800s to period of a more dominant interannual variability, which could correspond to a southeast expansion of the SPCZ.

Spatial Durbin model analysis macroeconomic loss due to natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusrini, D. E.; Mukhtasor

2015-03-01

Magnitude of the damage and losses caused by natural disasters is huge for Indonesia, therefore this study aimed to analyze the effects of natural disasters for macroeconomic losses that occurred in 115 cities/districts across Java during 2012. Based on the results of previous studies it is suspected that it contains effects of spatial dependencies in this case, so that the completion of this case is performed using a regression approach to the area, namely Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The obtained significant predictor variable is population, and predictor variable with a significant weighting is the number of occurrences of disasters, i.e., disasters in the region which have an impact on other neighboring regions. Moran's I index value using the weighted Queen Contiguity also showed significant results, meaning that the incidence of disasters in the region will decrease the value of GDP in other.

Technique for ship/wake detection

DOEpatents

Roskovensky, John K [Albuquerque, NM

2012-05-01

An automated ship detection technique includes accessing data associated with an image of a portion of Earth. The data includes reflectance values. A first portion of pixels within the image are masked with a cloud and land mask based on spectral flatness of the reflectance values associated with the pixels. A given pixel selected from the first portion of pixels is unmasked when a threshold number of localized pixels surrounding the given pixel are not masked by the cloud and land mask. A spatial variability image is generated based on spatial derivatives of the reflectance values of the pixels which remain unmasked by the cloud and land mask. The spatial variability image is thresholded to identify one or more regions within the image as possible ship detection regions.

Summary of Sessions: Ionosphere - Thermosphere - Mesosphere Working Group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spann, J. F.; Bhattacharyya, A.

2006-01-01

The topics covered by the sessions under the working group on Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Mesosphere dealt with various aspects of the response of the ionosphere-thermosphere coupled system and the middle atmosphere to solar variability. There were four plenary talks related to the theme of this working group, thirteen oral presentations in three sessions and six poster presentations. A number of issues related to effects of solar variability on the ionosphere-thermosphere, observed using satellite and ground-based data including ground magnetometer observations, radio beacon studies of equatorial spread F, and modeling of some of these effects, were discussed. Radar observations of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere region and a future mission to study the coupling of thunderstorm processes to this region, the ionosphere, and magnetosphere were also presented.

Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio-economic conditions across the study regions. Despite access to groundwater irrigation, crop cover in the western Indian study region showed substantial fluctuations during monsoon, probably due to changing planting strategies. This region is less sensitive to precipitation compared to the central Indian study region with predominantly climate-dependent irrigation from surface water. In western Indian study region a greater number of rainy days, increased intensity of rainfall, and cooler daytime and nighttime temperatures lead to increased crop cover during monsoon season, compared to in the central Indian study region where monsoon timing and amount of total rainfall are the most important factors of crop cover. Our findings indicate that different regions respond differently to climate, since socio-economic factors, such as irrigation access, market influences, demography, and policies play critical role in agricultural production. In the wake of projected precipitation and temperature changes, better access to irrigation and heat-tolerant high-yielding crop varieties will be crucial for future food production.

Snow-atmosphere coupling and its impact on temperature variability and extremes over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diro, G. T.; Sushama, L.; Huziy, O.

2018-04-01

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981-2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40-60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

[Prediction of regional soil quality based on mutual information theory integrated with decision tree algorithm].

PubMed

Lin, Fen-Fang; Wang, Ke; Yang, Ning; Yan, Shi-Guang; Zheng, Xin-Yu

2012-02-01

In this paper, some main factors such as soil type, land use pattern, lithology type, topography, road, and industry type that affect soil quality were used to precisely obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of regional soil quality, mutual information theory was adopted to select the main environmental factors, and decision tree algorithm See 5.0 was applied to predict the grade of regional soil quality. The main factors affecting regional soil quality were soil type, land use, lithology type, distance to town, distance to water area, altitude, distance to road, and distance to industrial land. The prediction accuracy of the decision tree model with the variables selected by mutual information was obviously higher than that of the model with all variables, and, for the former model, whether of decision tree or of decision rule, its prediction accuracy was all higher than 80%. Based on the continuous and categorical data, the method of mutual information theory integrated with decision tree could not only reduce the number of input parameters for decision tree algorithm, but also predict and assess regional soil quality effectively.

Discrete interference modeling via boolean algebra.

PubMed

Beckhoff, Gerhard

2011-01-01

Two types of boolean functions are considered, the locus function of n variables, and the interval function of ν = n - 1 variables. A 1-1 mapping is given that takes elements (cells) of the interval function to antidual pairs of elements in the locus function, and vice versa. A set of ν binary codewords representing the intervals are defined and used to generate the codewords of all genomic regions. Next a diallelic three-point system is reviewed in the light of boolean functions, which leads to redefining complete interference by a logic function. Together with the upper bound of noninterference already defined by a boolean function, it confines the region of interference. Extensions of these two functions to any finite number of ν are straightforward, but have been also made in terms of variables taken from the inclusion-exclusion principle (expressing "at least" and "exactly equal to" a decimal integer). Two coefficients of coincidence for systems with more than three loci are defined and discussed, one using the average of several individual coefficients and the other taking as coefficient a real number between zero and one. Finally, by way of a malfunction of the mod-2 addition, it is shown that a four-point system may produce two different functions, one of which exhibiting loss of a class of odd recombinants.

Chromosomal Mapping of Repetitive DNA Sequences in the Genus Bryconamericus (Characidae) and DNA Barcoding to Differentiate Populations.

PubMed

Santos, Angélica Rossotti Dos; Usso, Mariana Campaner; Gouveia, Juceli Gonzalez; Araya-Jaime, Cristian; Frantine-Silva, Wilson; Giuliano-Caetano, Lucia; Foresti, Fausto; Dias, Ana Lúcia

2017-06-01

The mapping of repetitive DNA sites by fluorescence in situ hybridization has been widely used for karyotype studies in different species of fish, especially when dealing with related species or even genera presenting high chromosome variability. This study analyzed three populations of Bryconamericus, with diploid number preserved, but with different karyotype formulae. Bryconamericus ecai, from the Forquetinha river/RS, presented three new cytotypes, increasing the number of karyotype forms to seven in this population. Other two populations of Bryconamericus sp. from the Vermelho stream/PR and Cambuta river/PR exhibited interpopulation variation. The chromosome mapping of rDNA sites revealed unique markings among the three populations, showing inter- and intrapopulation variability located in the terminal region. The molecular analysis using DNA barcoding complementing the cytogenetic analysis also showed differentiation among the three populations. The U2 small nuclear DNA repetitive sequence exhibited conserved features, being located in the interstitial region of a single chromosome pair. This is the first report on its occurrence in the genus Bryconamericus. Data obtained revealed a karyotype variability already assigned to the genus, along with polymorphism of ribosomal sites, demonstrating that this group of fish can be undergoing a divergent evolutionary process, constituting a substantive model for studies of chromosomal evolution.

How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.

2009-12-01

Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years and drier extreme wet months for the Upper Colorado basin, the differences are mostly not-significant. Exceptions are the results about the extreme wet years for n=3 for sub-region White-Yampa, for n=6, 7, and 8 for sub-region Upper Colorado-Dolores, and about the extreme dry years for n=11 for sub-region Great Divide-Upper Green. None of the results for the sub-regions in the Lower Colorado Basin were significant. For most of the Upper Colorado sub-regions the models simulate significantly lower frequency of negative and positive 4-6 year runs, while for several sub-regions a significantly higher frequency of 2-year negative runs is evident in the model versus the Maurer data comparisons. The model projections versus the PRISM data comparison reveals similar results for the negative runs, while for the positive runs the results indicate that the models simulate higher frequency of the 2-6 year runs. The results for the Lower Colorado basin sub-regions are similar, in general, to these for the Upper Colorado sub-regions. The differences between the simulated and the observed total number of negative or positive runs were not significant for almost all of the sub-regions within the Colorado River Basin.

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Man Li C.; Kang, In-Sik; Waliser, Duane; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Variation in vertebral number and its morphological implication in Galaxias platei.

PubMed

Barriga, J P; Milano, D; Cussac, V E

2013-11-01

Variation in the vertebral number of the puyen grande Galaxias platei was examined for specimens from 22 localities that span the entire distribution range of the species (from 40° to 55° S). The mean vertebral number (NMW ) increases towards high latitudes, i.e. Jordan's rule is applicable to this species. Owing to the wide geographic variation of the species, not only in latitude but also in altitude, the most explicative variable for NMW was mean winter air temperature, showing negative dependence. Morphological data suggest that the increment in vertebral number lies in the pre-pelvic region of the trunk and in the caudal region, but not in the segment between pelvic-fin insertion and the origin of the anal fin. As these alterations in body shape have important consequences for hydrodynamics and swimming performance, vertebral number variation in G. platei also holds implications for both individual and population fitness. © 2013 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Quantifying Spatial and Seasonal Variability in Atmospheric Ammonia with In Situ and Space-Based Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinder, Robert W.; Walker, John T.; Bash, Jesse O.; Cady-Pereira, Karen E.; Henze, Daven K.; Luo, Mingzhao; Osterman, Gregory B.; Shepard, Mark W.

2011-01-01

Ammonia plays an important role in many biogeochemical processes, yet atmospheric mixing ratios are not well known. Recently, methods have been developed for retrieving NH3 from space-based observations, but they have not been compared to in situ measurements. We have conducted a field campaign combining co-located surface measurements and satellite special observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Our study includes 25 surface monitoring sites spanning 350 km across eastern North Carolina, a region with large seasonal and spatial variability in NH3. From the TES spectra, we retrieve a NH3 representative volume mixing ratio (RVMR), and we restrict our analysis to times when the region of the atmosphere observed by TES is representative of the surface measurement. We find that the TES NH3 RVMR qualitatively captures the seasonal and spatial variability found in eastern North Carolina. Both surface measurements and TES NH3 show a strong correspondence with the number of livestock facilities within 10 km of the observation. Furthermore, we find that TES H3 RVMR captures the month-to-month variability present in the surface observations. The high correspondence with in situ measurements and vast spatial coverage make TES NH3 RVMR a valuable tool for understanding regional and global NH3 fluxes.

Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.

2016-02-01

Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.

Diversity and population-genetic properties of copy number variations and multicopy genes in cattle

PubMed Central

Bickhart, Derek M.; Xu, Lingyang; Hutchison, Jana L.; Cole, John B.; Null, Daniel J.; Schroeder, Steven G.; Song, Jiuzhou; Garcia, Jose Fernando; Sonstegard, Tad S.; Van Tassell, Curtis P.; Schnabel, Robert D.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; Lewin, Harris A.; Liu, George E.

2016-01-01

The diversity and population genetics of copy number variation (CNV) in domesticated animals are not well understood. In this study, we analysed 75 genomes of major taurine and indicine cattle breeds (including Angus, Brahman, Gir, Holstein, Jersey, Limousin, Nelore, and Romagnola), sequenced to 11-fold coverage to identify 1,853 non-redundant CNV regions. Supported by high validation rates in array comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) and qPCR experiments, these CNV regions accounted for 3.1% (87.5 Mb) of the cattle reference genome, representing a significant increase over previous estimates of the area of the genome that is copy number variable (∼2%). Further population genetics and evolutionary genomics analyses based on these CNVs revealed the population structures of the cattle taurine and indicine breeds and uncovered potential diversely selected CNVs near important functional genes, including AOX1, ASZ1, GAT, GLYAT, and KRTAP9-1. Additionally, 121 CNV gene regions were found to be either breed specific or differentially variable across breeds, such as RICTOR in dairy breeds and PNPLA3 in beef breeds. In contrast, clusters of the PRP and PAG genes were found to be duplicated in all sequenced animals, suggesting that subfunctionalization, neofunctionalization, or overdominance play roles in diversifying those fertility-related genes. These CNV results provide a new glimpse into the diverse selection histories of cattle breeds and a basis for correlating structural variation with complex traits in the future. PMID:27085184

[Surgical treatment of the primary tumor in stage IV breast cancer].

PubMed

Jiménez Anula, Juan; Sánchez Andújar, Belén; Machuca Chiriboga, Pablo; Navarro Cecilia, Joaquín; Dueñas Rodríguez, Basilio

2015-01-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the impact of loco-regional surgery on survival of patients with stage IV breast cancer. Retrospective study that included patients with breast cancer and synchronous metastases. Patients with ECOG above 2 and high-risk patients were excluded. The following variables were evaluated: age, tumor size, nodal involvement, histological type, histological grade, hormone receptor status, HER2 overexpression, number of affected organs, location of metastases and surgical treatment. The impact of surgery and several clinical and pathologic variables on survival was analyzed by Cox regression model. A total of 69 patients, of whom 36 (52.2%) underwent surgery (study group) were included. After a mean follow-up of 34 months, the median survival of the series was 55 months and no significant differences between the study group and the group of patients without surgery (P=0.187) were found. Two factors associated with worse survival were identified: the number of organs with metastases (HR=1.69, IC 95%: 1.05-2.71) and triple negative breast cancer (HR=3.49, IC 95%: 1.39-8.74). Loco-regional surgery, however, was not associated with survival. Loco-regional surgical treatment was not associated with improved survival inpacientes with stage IV breast cancer. The number of organs with metastases and tumors were triple negative prognostic factors for survival. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Identification of genome regions determining semen quality in Holstein-Friesian bulls using information theory.

PubMed

Borowska, Alicja; Szwaczkowski, Tomasz; Kamiński, Stanisław; Hering, Dorota M; Kordan, Władysław; Lecewicz, Marek

2018-05-01

Use of information theory can be an alternative statistical approach to detect genome regions and candidate genes that are associated with livestock traits. The aim of this study was to verify the validity of the SNPs effects on some semen quality variables of bulls using entropy analysis. Records from 288 Holstein-Friesian bulls from one AI station were included. The following semen quality variables were analyzed: CASA kinematic variables of sperm (total motility, average path velocity, straight line velocity, curvilinear velocity, amplitude of lateral head displacement, beat cross frequency, straightness, linearity), sperm membrane integrity (plazmolema, mitochondrial function), sperm ATP content. Molecular data included 48,192 SNPs. After filtering (call rate = 0.95 and MAF = 0.05), 34,794 SNPs were included in the entropy analysis. The entropy and conditional entropy were estimated for each SNP. Conditional entropy quantifies the remaining uncertainty about values of the variable with the knowledge of SNP. The most informative SNPs for each variable were determined. The computations were performed using the R statistical package. A majority of the loci had relatively small contributions. The most informative SNPs for all variables were mainly located on chromosomes: 3, 4, 5 and 16. The results from the study indicate that important genome regions and candidate genes that determine semen quality variables in bulls are located on a number of chromosomes. Some detected clusters of SNPs were located in RNA (U6 and 5S_rRNA) for all the variables for which analysis occurred. Associations between PARK2 as well GALNT13 genes and some semen characteristics were also detected. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating historical groundwater levels based on relations with hydrologic and meteorological variables in the U.S. glacial aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudley, R. W.; Hodgkins, G. A.; Nielsen, M. G.; Qi, S. L.

2018-07-01

A number of previous studies have examined relations between groundwater levels and hydrologic and meteorological variables over parts of the glacial aquifer system, but systematic analyses across the entire U.S. glacial aquifer system are lacking. We tested correlations between monthly groundwater levels measured at 1043 wells in the U.S. glacial aquifer system considered to be minimally influenced by human disturbance and selected hydrologic and meteorological variables with the goal of extending historical groundwater records where there were strong correlations. Groundwater levels in the East region correlated most strongly with short-term (1 and 3 month) averages of hydrologic and meteorological variables, while those in the Central and West Central regions yielded stronger correlations with hydrologic and meteorological variables averaged over longer time intervals (6-12 months). Variables strongly correlated with high and low annual groundwater levels were identified as candidate records for use in statistical linear models as a means to fill in and extend historical high and low groundwater levels respectively. Overall, 37.4% of study wells meeting data criteria had successful models for high and (or) low groundwater levels; these wells shared characteristics of relatively higher local precipitation, higher local land-surface slope, lower amounts of clay within the surficial sediments, and higher base-flow index. Streamflow and base flow served as explanatory variables in about two thirds of both high- and low-groundwater-level models in all three regions, and generally yielded more and better models compared to precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index. The use of variables such as streamflow with substantially longer and more complete records than those of groundwater wells provide a means for placing contemporary groundwater levels in a longer historical context and can support site-specific analyses such as groundwater modeling.

Geophysical variables and behavior: XXI. Geomagnetic variation as possible enhancement stimuli for UFO reports preceding earthtremors.

PubMed

Persinger, M A

1985-02-01

The contribution of geomagnetic variation to the occurrence of UFORs (reports of UFOs) within the New Madrid States during the 6-mo. increments before increases in the numbers of IV-V or less intensity earthquakes within the central USA was determined. Although statistically significant zero-order correlations existed between measures of earthquakes, UFORs and geomagnetic variability, the association between the latter two deteriorated markedly when their shared variance with earthquakes was held constant. These outcomes are compatible with the hypothesis that geomagnetic variability (or phenomena associated with it) may enhance UFORs but only if tectonic stress and strain are increasing within the region.

International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections

PubMed Central

Cohen, Joel E.; Roig, Marta; Reuman, Daniel C.; GoGwilt, Cai

2008-01-01

International migration will play an increasing role in the demographic future of most nations if fertility continues to decline globally. We developed an algorithm to project future numbers of international migrants from any country or region to any other. The proposed generalized linear model (GLM) used geographic and demographic independent variables only (the population and area of origins and destinations of migrants, the distance between origin and destination, the calendar year, and indicator variables to quantify nonrandom characteristics of individual countries). The dependent variable, yearly numbers of migrants, was quantified by 43653 reports from 11 countries of migration from 228 origins and to 195 destinations during 1960–2004. The final GLM based on all data was selected by the Bayesian information criterion. The number of migrants per year from origin to destination was proportional to (population of origin)0.86(area of origin)−0.21(population of destination)0.36(distance)−0.97, multiplied by functions of year and country-specific indicator variables. The number of emigrants from an origin depended on both its population and its population density. For a variable initial year and a fixed terminal year 2004, the parameter estimates appeared stable. Multiple R2, the fraction of variation in log numbers of migrants accounted for by the starting model, improved gradually with recentness of the data: R2 = 0.57 for data from 1960 to 2004, R2 = 0.59 for 1985–2004, R2 = 0.61 for 1995–2004, and R2 = 0.64 for 2000–2004. The migration estimates generated by the model may be embedded in deterministic or stochastic population projections. PMID:18824693

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

Multivariate statistical analysis of stream-sediment geochemistry in the Grazer Paläozoikum, Austria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, L.; Davis, J.C.

1990-01-01

The Austrian reconnaissance study of stream-sediment composition — more than 30000 clay-fraction samples collected over an area of 40000 km2 — is summarized in an atlas of regional maps that show the distributions of 35 elements. These maps, rich in information, reveal complicated patterns of element abundance that are difficult to compare on more than a small number of maps at one time. In such a study, multivariate procedures such as simultaneous R-Q mode components analysis may be helpful. They can compress a large number of variables into a much smaller number of independent linear combinations. These composite variables may be mapped and relationships sought between them and geological properties. As an example, R-Q mode components analysis is applied here to the Grazer Paläozoikum, a tectonic unit northeast of the city of Graz, which is composed of diverse lithologies and contains many mineral deposits.

Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergis, Joëlle; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-04-01

This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-eastern Australia (SEA), southern South Africa (SAF) and southern South America (SSA). We provide a first comparison of rainfall variations in these three regions over the past two centuries, with a focus on identifying synchronous wet and dry periods. Despite the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal limitations of the rainfall reconstructions, we find evidence of dynamically-forced climate influences. An investigation of the twentieth century relationship between regional rainfall and the large-scale climate circulation features of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions revealed that Indo-Pacific variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole dominate rainfall variability in SEA and SAF, while the higher latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exerts a greater influence in SSA. An assessment of the stability of the regional rainfall-climate circulation modes over the past two centuries revealed a number of non-stationarities, the most notable of which occurs during the early nineteenth century around 1820. This corresponds to a time when the influence of ENSO on SEA, SAF and SSA rainfall weakens and there is a strengthening of the influence of SAM. We conclude by advocating the use of long-term palaeoclimate data to estimate decadal rainfall variability for future water resource management.

Multi-region and single-cell sequencing reveal variable genomic heterogeneity in rectal cancer.

PubMed

Liu, Mingshan; Liu, Yang; Di, Jiabo; Su, Zhe; Yang, Hong; Jiang, Beihai; Wang, Zaozao; Zhuang, Meng; Bai, Fan; Su, Xiangqian

2017-11-23

Colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous group of malignancies with complex molecular subtypes. While colon cancer has been widely investigated, studies on rectal cancer are very limited. Here, we performed multi-region whole-exome sequencing and single-cell whole-genome sequencing to examine the genomic intratumor heterogeneity (ITH) of rectal tumors. We sequenced nine tumor regions and 88 single cells from two rectal cancer patients with tumors of the same molecular classification and characterized their mutation profiles and somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) at the multi-region and the single-cell levels. A variable extent of genomic heterogeneity was observed between the two patients, and the degree of ITH increased when analyzed on the single-cell level. We found that major SCNAs were early events in cancer development and inherited steadily. Single-cell sequencing revealed mutations and SCNAs which were hidden in bulk sequencing. In summary, we studied the ITH of rectal cancer at regional and single-cell resolution and demonstrated that variable heterogeneity existed in two patients. The mutational scenarios and SCNA profiles of two patients with treatment naïve from the same molecular subtype are quite different. Our results suggest each tumor possesses its own architecture, which may result in different diagnosis, prognosis, and drug responses. Remarkable ITH exists in the two patients we have studied, providing a preliminary impression of ITH in rectal cancer.

Air quality assessment in Portugal and the special case of the Tâmega e Sousa region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Fátima; Correia, Aldina; Silva, Eliana Costa e.

2017-06-01

Air pollution is a major environmental problem which can present a significant risk for human health. This paper, presents the evaluation of the air quality in several region of Portugal. Special focus is given to the region of Tâmega e Sousa where ESTG/P. Porto is located. ANOVA and MANOVA techniques are applied to study the differences between air quality in the period between 2009 and 2012 in several regions of Portugal. The data includes altitude, area, expenditure of environmental measures on protection of air quality and climate, expenditure on protection of biodiversity and landscape, burned area, number of forest fires, extractive and manufacturing industries, per municipality and per year. Using information gathered by the project QualAr about concentrations of the pollutants: CO, NO2, O3, PM10 and SO2, an air quality indicator with five levels is consider. The results point to significant differences in the air quality for the regions and the years considered. Additionally, for identifying the factors that influence the air quality in 2012 a multivariate regression model was used. The results show statistical evidence that air quality in 2011, number of forest fires in 2012 and 2010, number of manufacturing industries per km2 in 2012 and number of forest fires in 2010 are the variables that present a larger contribution to the quality of the air in 2012.

Analytical variability of estimated platelet counts on canine blood smears.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Saverio; Paciletti, Veronica; Zambarbieri, Jari

2018-06-04

The analytical variability of estimated platelet counts in dogs has not been reported. The purpose of this study was to assess the magnitude of analytical imprecision of platelet estimates and the possible impact of this imprecision on clinical decisions. Three independent observers counted the number of platelets in 3 different areas (LE = lateral edge; CM = central monolayer; FE = feathered edge) of 30 canine blood smears with different instrumental platelet counts. The coefficient of variation (CV) for each observer was calculated in different areas of each smear (intra-observer variability), among different regions of each smear (inter-area variability), and among different observers in each area (inter-observer variability). The influence of these variabilities on the classification of platelet estimates as adequate, increased, or decreased was also assessed. The CVs recorded in the different areas by each observer ranged from 8% to 88% and were negatively correlated (P < .001, r = -.65) with the mean number of platelets per field. The mean platelet number was significantly lower in the FE and significantly higher in the CM compared with the LE, but the magnitude of this difference varied with the operators. The concordance among operators regarding platelet estimates was fair (k = 0.36) to substantial (k = 0.71) depending on the area. The overall inter-area concordance was moderate (k = 0.59). Platelet estimates suffer from high variability that could lead to patient misclassification. Therefore, guidelines to standardize the platelet estimate are needed. © 2018 American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology.

Serum Uric Acid Laboratory Test Request Patterns in Primary Care: How Panels May Contribute to Overutilization and Treatment of Asymptomatic Patients.

PubMed

Salinas, Maria; López-Garrigós, Maite; Flores, Emilio; Leiva-Salinas, Carlos

2017-12-22

To study the variability in the request of serum uric acid (SUA) in primary care. A cross-sectional study was designed and conducted at a main core laboratory. Spanish laboratories were invited to report their number of serum glucose (SG) and SUA tests requested from primary care during 2014. A survey was sent to every participant in November 2016 regarding the inclusion of SUA in order profiles/panels. The ratio of SUA/SG requests (SUA/SG) was calculated and compared between regions, and laboratories depending on whether SUA was included or not in a health check profile. 110 laboratories participated in the study (59.8% Spanish population). The median SUA/SG ratio was 0.82 (IQR: 0.25), and 41 laboratories had a ratio over 0.9. There was a significant regional variability (P = .008). Laboratories where SUA was not included in the "health check profile" had lower SUA/SG indicators (P = .003). There was significant regional variability in the request of SUA, and an overall over-request. Different regional customs or habits and the inclusion of SUA in the health check profile were probable causes behind the observed over-request. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Towards the Rational Design of a Candidate Vaccine against Pregnancy Associated Malaria: Conserved Sequences of the DBL6ε Domain of VAR2CSA

PubMed Central

Badaut, Cyril; Bertin, Gwladys; Rustico, Tatiana; Fievet, Nadine; Massougbodji, Achille; Gaye, Alioune; Deloron, Philippe

2010-01-01

Background Placental malaria is a disease linked to the sequestration of Plasmodium falciparum infected red blood cells (IRBC) in the placenta, leading to reduced materno-fetal exchanges and to local inflammation. One of the virulence factors of P. falciparum involved in cytoadherence to chondroitin sulfate A, its placental receptor, is the adhesive protein VAR2CSA. Its localisation on the surface of IRBC makes it accessible to the immune system. VAR2CSA contains six DBL domains. The DBL6ε domain is the most variable. High variability constitutes a means for the parasite to evade the host immune response. The DBL6ε domain could constitute a very attractive basis for a vaccine candidate but its reported variability necessitates, for antigenic characterisations, identifying and classifying commonalities across isolates. Methodology/Principal Findings Local alignment analysis of the DBL6ε domain had revealed that it is not as variable as previously described. Variability is concentrated in seven regions present on the surface of the DBL6ε domain. The main goal of our work is to classify and group variable sequences that will simplify further research to determine dominant epitopes. Firstly, variable sequences were grouped following their average percent pairwise identity (APPI). Groups comprising many variable sequences sharing low variability were found. Secondly, ELISA experiments following the IgG recognition of a recombinant DBL6ε domain, and of peptides mimicking its seven variable blocks, allowed to determine an APPI cut-off and to isolate groups represented by a single consensus sequence. Conclusions/Significance A new sequence approach is used to compare variable regions in sequences that have extensive segmental gene relationship. Using this approach, the VAR2CSA DBL6 domain is composed of 7 variable blocks with limited polymorphism. Each variable block is composed of a limited number of consensus types. Based on peptide based ELISA, variable blocks with 85% or greater sequence identity are expected to be recognized equally well by antibody and can be considered the same consensus type. Therefore, the analysis of the antibody response against the classified small number of sequences should be helpful to determine epitopes. PMID:20585655

A large-scale survey of genetic copy number variations among Han Chinese residing in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lin, Chien-Hsing; Li, Ling-Hui; Ho, Sheng-Feng; Chuang, Tzu-Po; Wu, Jer-Yuarn; Chen, Yuan-Tsong; Fann, Cathy SJ

2008-01-01

Background Copy number variations (CNVs) have recently been recognized as important structural variations in the human genome. CNVs can affect gene expression and thus may contribute to phenotypic differences. The copy number inferring tool (CNIT) is an effective hidden Markov model-based algorithm for estimating allele-specific copy number and predicting chromosomal alterations from single nucleotide polymorphism microarrays. The CNIT algorithm, which was constructed using data from 270 HapMap multi-ethnic individuals, was applied to identify CNVs from 300 unrelated Han Chinese individuals in Taiwan. Results Using stringent selection criteria, 230 regions with variable copy numbers were identified in the Han Chinese population; 133 (57.83%) had been reported previously, 64 displayed greater than 1% CNV allele frequency. The average size of the CNV regions was 322 kb (ranging from 1.48 kb to 5.68 Mb) and covered a total of 2.47% of the human genome. A total of 196 of the CNV regions were simple deletions and 27 were simple amplifications. There were 449 genes and 5 microRNAs within these CNV regions; some of these genes are known to be associated with diseases. Conclusion The identified CNVs are characteristic of the Han Chinese population and should be considered when genetic studies are conducted. The CNV distribution in the human genome is still poorly characterized, and there is much diversity among different ethnic populations. PMID:19108714

Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

2018-01-01

Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

Rain rate intensity model for communication link design across the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilaru, Aravind; Kotamraju, Sarat K.; Avlonitis, Nicholas; Sri Kavya, K. Ch.

2016-07-01

A study on rain statistical parameters such as one minute rain intensity, possible number of minute occurrences with respective percentage of time in a year has been evaluated for the purpose of communication link design at Ka, Q, V bands as well as at Free-Space Optical communication links (FSO). To understand possible outage period of a communication links due to rainfall and to investigate rainfall pattern, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rainfall data is analysed due its ample presence across India. The climates of the examined AWS regions vary from desert to cold climate, heavy rainfall to variable rainfall regions, cyclone effective regions, mountain and coastal regions. In this way a complete and unbiased picture of the rainfall statistics for Indian region is evaluated. The analysed AWS data gives insight into yearly accumulated rainfall, maximum hourly accumulated rainfall, mean hourly accumulated rainfall, number of rainy days and number of rainy hours from 668 AWS locations. Using probability density function the one minute rainfall measurements at KL University is integrated with AWS measurements for estimating number of rain occurrences in terms of one minute rain intensity for annual rainfall accumulated between 100 mm and 5000 mm to give an insight into possible one minute accumulation pattern in an hour for comprehensive analysis of rainfall influence on a communication link for design engineers. So that low availability communications links at higher frequencies can be transformed into a reliable and economically feasible communication links for implementing High Throughput Services (HTS).

Analysis of a Small Vigorous Mesoscale Convective System in a Low-Shear Environment. Pt. 1; Formation, Echo Structure and Lightning Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knupp, Kevin; Geerts, Bart; Goodman, Steven J.

1997-01-01

The precipitation output was highly variable due to the transient nature of the intense convective elements. This result is attributed to the high Richardson number (175) of the environment, which is much higher than that of the typical MCS environment. The development of the stratiform precipitation was accomplished locally (in situ), and not be advection of from the convective region. In situ charging of the stratiform region is also supported by the observations.

Copy number variation in the region harboring SOX9 gene in dogs with testicular/ovotesticular disorder of sex development (78,XX; SRY-negative).

PubMed

Marcinkowska-Swojak, Malgorzata; Szczerbal, Izabela; Pausch, Hubert; Nowacka-Woszuk, Joanna; Flisikowski, Krzysztof; Dzimira, Stanislaw; Nizanski, Wojciech; Payan-Carreira, Rita; Fries, Ruedi; Kozlowski, Piotr; Switonski, Marek

2015-10-01

Although the disorder of sex development in dogs with female karyotype (XX DSD) is quite common, its molecular basis is still unclear. Among mutations underlying XX DSD in mammals are duplication of a long sequence upstream of the SOX9 gene (RevSex) and duplication of the SOX9 gene (also observed in dogs). We performed a comparative analysis of 16 XX DSD and 30 control female dogs, using FISH and MLPA approaches. Our study was focused on a region harboring SOX9 and a region orthologous to the human RevSex (CanRevSex), which was located by in silico analysis downstream of SOX9. Two highly polymorphic copy number variable regions (CNVRs): CNVR1 upstream of SOX9 and CNVR2 encompassing CanRevSex were identified. Although none of the detected copy number variants were specific to either affected or control animals, we observed that the average number of copies in CNVR1 was higher in XX DSD. No copy variation of SOX9 was observed. Our extensive studies have excluded duplication of SOX9 as the common cause of XX DSD in analyzed samples. However, it remains possible that the causative mutation is hidden in highly polymorphic CNVR1.

Copy number variation in the region harboring SOX9 gene in dogs with testicular/ovotesticular disorder of sex development (78,XX; SRY-negative)

PubMed Central

Marcinkowska-Swojak, Malgorzata; Szczerbal, Izabela; Pausch, Hubert; Nowacka-Woszuk, Joanna; Flisikowski, Krzysztof; Dzimira, Stanislaw; Nizanski, Wojciech; Payan-Carreira, Rita; Fries, Ruedi; Kozlowski, Piotr; Switonski, Marek

2015-01-01

Although the disorder of sex development in dogs with female karyotype (XX DSD) is quite common, its molecular basis is still unclear. Among mutations underlying XX DSD in mammals are duplication of a long sequence upstream of the SOX9 gene (RevSex) and duplication of the SOX9 gene (also observed in dogs). We performed a comparative analysis of 16 XX DSD and 30 control female dogs, using FISH and MLPA approaches. Our study was focused on a region harboring SOX9 and a region orthologous to the human RevSex (CanRevSex), which was located by in silico analysis downstream of SOX9. Two highly polymorphic copy number variable regions (CNVRs): CNVR1 upstream of SOX9 and CNVR2 encompassing CanRevSex were identified. Although none of the detected copy number variants were specific to either affected or control animals, we observed that the average number of copies in CNVR1 was higher in XX DSD. No copy variation of SOX9 was observed. Our extensive studies have excluded duplication of SOX9 as the common cause of XX DSD in analyzed samples. However, it remains possible that the causative mutation is hidden in highly polymorphic CNVR1. PMID:26423656

A study of the differences in the request of glycated hemoglobin in primary care in Spain: A global, significant, and potentially dangerous under-request.

PubMed

Salinas, Maria; López-Garrigós, Maite; Uris, Joaquín; Leiva-Salinas, Carlos

2014-08-01

The study was performed to compare the variability and appropriateness in the request of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in primary care in Spain. 76 Spanish laboratories from diverse regions across Spain filled out the number of HbA1c tests requested by general practitioners (GPs) during the year 2012. Every patient seen at the different primary care centers was included in the study. Each participating laboratory was required to provide organizational data. The number of HbA1c requests per 1000 inhabitants was calculated and compared between regions. To investigate whether HbA1c was appropriately requested to manage and to diagnose Diabetes Mellitus (DM), the number of necessary HbA1c was calculated, according to the disease prevalence in Spain (6.9%) and the guidelines regarding DM management and diagnosis. 17679195 patients were included in the study. A total of 1544551 HbA1c tests were ordered. No significant difference in the number of HbA1c requests per 1000 inhabitants was seen according to hospital setting (rural, urban or rural-urban). No significant differences were noticed between 3 Spanish regions, except the Valencian Community that presented higher values. Regarding the request appropriateness, 3280183 additional tests would have been necessary to manage diabetic patients and to diagnose new patients with the disease. There was a high variability regarding the request of HbA1c; the test was under-requested in all the participating health departments. This emphasizes the need to accomplish interventions to improve an appropriate use. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modeling photovoltaic diffusion: an analysis of geospatial datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Carolyn; Drury, Easan; Lopez, Anthony; Elmore, Ryan; Margolis, Robert

2014-07-01

This study combines address-level residential photovoltaic (PV) adoption trends in California with several types of geospatial information—population demographics, housing characteristics, foreclosure rates, solar irradiance, vehicle ownership preferences, and others—to identify which subsets of geospatial information are the best predictors of historical PV adoption. Number of rooms, heating source and house age were key variables that had not been previously explored in the literature, but are consistent with the expected profile of a PV adopter. The strong relationship provided by foreclosure indicators and mortgage status have less of an intuitive connection to PV adoption, but may be highly correlated with characteristics inherent in PV adopters. Next, we explore how these predictive factors and model performance varies between different Investor Owned Utility (IOU) regions in California, and at different spatial scales. Results suggest that models trained with small subsets of geospatial information (five to eight variables) may provide similar explanatory power as models using hundreds of geospatial variables. Further, the predictive performance of models generally decreases at higher resolution, i.e., below ZIP code level since several geospatial variables with coarse native resolution become less useful for representing high resolution variations in PV adoption trends. However, for California we find that model performance improves if parameters are trained at the regional IOU level rather than the state-wide level. We also find that models trained within one IOU region are generally representative for other IOU regions in CA, suggesting that a model trained with data from one state may be applicable in another state.

Spectral irradiance variations: comparison between observations and the SATIRE model on solar rotation time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S. K.; Harder, J. W.; Kopp, G.

2008-07-01

Aims: We test the reliability of the observed and calculated spectral irradiance variations between 200 and 1600 nm over a time span of three solar rotations in 2004. Methods: We compare our model calculations to spectral irradiance observations taken with SORCE/SIM, SoHO/VIRGO, and UARS/SUSIM. The calculations assume LTE and are based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model. We analyse the variability as a function of wavelength and present time series in a number of selected wavelength regions covering the UV to the NIR. We also show the facular and spot contributions to the total calculated variability. Results: In most wavelength regions, the variability agrees well between all sets of observations and the model calculations. The model does particularly well between 400 and 1300 nm, but fails below 220 nm, as well as for some of the strong NUV lines. Our calculations clearly show the shift from faculae-dominated variability in the NUV to spot-dominated variability above approximately 400 nm. We also discuss some of the remaining problems, such as the low sensitivity of SUSIM and SORCE for wavelengths between approximately 310 and 350 nm, where currently the model calculations still provide the best estimates of solar variability.

Analysis of variable sites between two complete South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) mitochondrial genomes.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenping; Yue, Bisong; Wang, Xiaofang; Zhang, Xiuyue; Xie, Zhong; Liu, Nonglin; Fu, Wenyuan; Yuan, Yaohua; Chen, Daqing; Fu, Danghua; Zhao, Bo; Yin, Yuzhong; Yan, Xiahui; Wang, Xinjing; Zhang, Rongying; Liu, Jie; Li, Maoping; Tang, Yao; Hou, Rong; Zhang, Zhihe

2011-10-01

In order to investigate the mitochondrial genome of Panthera tigris amoyensis, two South China tigers (P25 and P27) were analyzed following 15 cymt-specific primer sets. The entire mtDNA sequence was found to be 16,957 bp and 17,001 bp long for P25 and P27 respectively, and this difference in length between P25 and P27 occurred in the number of tandem repeats in the RS-3 segment of the control region. The structural characteristics of complete P. t. amoyensis mitochondrial genomes were also highly similar to those of P. uncia. Additionally, the rate of point mutation was only 0.3% and a total of 59 variable sites between P25 and P27 were found. Out of the 59 variable sites, 6 were located in 6 different tRNA genes, 6 in the 2 rRNA genes, 7 in non-coding regions (one located between tRNA-Asn and tRNA-Tyr and six in the D-loop), and 40 in 10 protein-coding genes. COI held the largest amount of variable sites (9 sites) and Cytb contained the highest variable rate (0.7%) in the complete sequences. Moreover, out of the 40 variable sites located in 10 protein-coding genes, 12 sites were nonsynonymous.

Structure of Pine Stands in the Southeast

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold; Gregory A. Ruark

1988-01-01

Distributional and statistical information associated with stand age, site index, basal area per acre, number of stems per acre, and stand density index is reported for major pine cover types of the Southeastern United States. Means, standard deviations, and ranges of these variables are listed by State and physiographic region for loblolly, slash, longleaf, pond,...

Application of a multilocus variable number of tandem repeats analysis to regional outbreak surveillance of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 infections.

PubMed

Konno, Takayuki; Yatsuyanagi, Jun; Saito, Shioko

2011-01-01

A total of 18 strains of EHEC O157:H7 were isolated from distinct cases in Akita Prefecture, Japan from July to September 2007. The genetic relatedness of these isolates was investigated by performing a multilocus variable number of tandem repeats analysis (MLVA) and a pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) analysis using XbaI. The PFGE analyses allowed us to group these 18 isolates into three major clusters. The MLVA results correlated closely with those obtained by PFGE, although some variants were found within the clusters obtained by PFGE, thus highlighting the utility of this technique for determining a precise classification when it is difficult to differentiate between isolates with indistinguishable or very similar PFGE patterns. In addition, MLVA is a much easier and more rapid method than PFGE for analysis of the genetic relatedness of strains. Thus, as a second molecular epidemiological subtyping method, MLVA is useful for the regional outbreak surveillance of EHEC O157:H7 infections.

Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Octavianty, Toharudin, Toni; Jaya, I. G. N. Mindra

2017-03-01

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by a bacterium, called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which typically attacks the lungs but can also affect the kidney, spine, and brain (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). Indonesia had the largest number of TB cases after India (Global Tuberculosis Report 2015 by WHO). The distribution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in Indonesia showed the high genetic diversity and tended to vary by geographic regions. For instance, in Bandung city, the prevalence rate of TB morbidity is quite high. A number of TB patients belong to the counted data. To determine the factors that significantly influence the number of tuberculosis patients in each location of the observations can be used statistical analysis tool that is Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression Semiparametric (GWPRS). GWPRS is an extension of the Poisson regression and GWPR that is influenced by geographical factors, and there is also variables that influence globally and locally. Using the TB Data in Bandung city (in 2015), the results show that the global and local variables that influence the number of tuberculosis patients in every sub-district.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris

2009-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Unveiling the pan-genome of the SXT/R391 family of ICEs: molecular characterisation of new variable regions of SXT/R391-like ICEs detected in Pseudoalteromonas sp. and Vibrio scophthalmi.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Blanco, Arturo; Lemos, Manuel L; Osorio, Carlos R

2016-08-01

Integrating conjugative elements (ICEs) of the SXT/R391 family have been identified in fish-isolated bacterial strains collected from marine aquaculture environments of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Here we analysed the variable regions of two ICEs, one preliminarily characterised in a previous study (ICEVscSpa3) and one newly identified (ICEPspSpa1). Bacterial strains harboring these ICEs were phylogenetically assigned to Vibrio scophthalmi and Pseudoalteromonas sp., thus constituting the first evidence of SXT/R391-like ICEs in the genus Pseudoalteromonas to date. Variable DNA regions, which confer element-specific properties to ICEs of this family, were characterised. Interestingly, the two ICEs contained 29 genes not found in variable DNA insertions of previously described ICEs. Most notably, variable gene content for ICEVscSpa3 showed similarity to genes potentially involved in housekeeping functions of replication, nucleotide metabolism and transcription. For these genes, closest homologues were found clustered in the genome of Pseudomonas psychrotolerans L19, suggesting a transfer as a block to ICEVscSpa3. Genes encoding antibiotic resistance, restriction modification systems and toxin/antitoxin systems were absent from hotspots of ICEVscSpa3. In contrast, the variable gene content of ICEPspSpa1 included genes involved in restriction/modification functions in two different hotspots and genes related to ICE maintenance. The present study unveils a relatively large number of novel genes in SXT/R391-ICEs, and demonstrates the major role of ICE elements as contributors to horizontal gene transfer.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

PubMed

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

Quantitative Pointwise Estimate of the Solution of the Linearized Boltzmann Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yu-Chu; Wang, Haitao; Wu, Kung-Chien

2018-04-01

We study the quantitative pointwise behavior of the solutions of the linearized Boltzmann equation for hard potentials, Maxwellian molecules and soft potentials, with Grad's angular cutoff assumption. More precisely, for solutions inside the finite Mach number region (time like region), we obtain the pointwise fluid structure for hard potentials and Maxwellian molecules, and optimal time decay in the fluid part and sub-exponential time decay in the non-fluid part for soft potentials. For solutions outside the finite Mach number region (space like region), we obtain sub-exponential decay in the space variable. The singular wave estimate, regularization estimate and refined weighted energy estimate play important roles in this paper. Our results extend the classical results of Liu and Yu (Commun Pure Appl Math 57:1543-1608, 2004), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 1:1-78, 2006), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 6:151-243, 2011) and Lee et al. (Commun Math Phys 269:17-37, 2007) to hard and soft potentials by imposing suitable exponential velocity weight on the initial condition.

Quantitative Pointwise Estimate of the Solution of the Linearized Boltzmann Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yu-Chu; Wang, Haitao; Wu, Kung-Chien

2018-06-01

We study the quantitative pointwise behavior of the solutions of the linearized Boltzmann equation for hard potentials, Maxwellian molecules and soft potentials, with Grad's angular cutoff assumption. More precisely, for solutions inside the finite Mach number region (time like region), we obtain the pointwise fluid structure for hard potentials and Maxwellian molecules, and optimal time decay in the fluid part and sub-exponential time decay in the non-fluid part for soft potentials. For solutions outside the finite Mach number region (space like region), we obtain sub-exponential decay in the space variable. The singular wave estimate, regularization estimate and refined weighted energy estimate play important roles in this paper. Our results extend the classical results of Liu and Yu (Commun Pure Appl Math 57:1543-1608, 2004), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 1:1-78, 2006), (Bull Inst Math Acad Sin 6:151-243, 2011) and Lee et al. (Commun Math Phys 269:17-37, 2007) to hard and soft potentials by imposing suitable exponential velocity weight on the initial condition.

Beyond the SCS curve number: A new stochastic spatial runoff approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, M. S., Jr.; Parolari, A.; McDonnell, J.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is the standard approach in practice for predicting a storm event runoff response. It is popular because its low parametric complexity and ease of use. However, the SCS-CN method does not describe the spatial variability of runoff and is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Here we present a general theory for extending the SCS-CN method. Our new theory accommodates different event based models derived from alternative rainfall-runoff mechanisms or distributions of watershed variables, which are the basis of different semi-distributed models such as VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL. We introduce a parsimonious but flexible description where runoff is initiated by a pure threshold, i.e., saturation excess, that is complemented by fill and spill runoff behavior from areas of partial saturation. To facilitate event based runoff prediction, we derive simple equations for the fraction of the runoff source areas, the probability density function (PDF) describing runoff variability, and the corresponding average runoff value (a runoff curve analogous to the SCS-CN). The benefit of the theory is that it unites the SCS-CN method, VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL as the same model type but with different assumptions for the spatial distribution of variables and the runoff mechanism. The new multiple runoff mechanism description for the SCS-CN enables runoff prediction in geographic regions and site runoff types previously misrepresented by the traditional SCS-CN method. In addition, we show that the VIC, PDM, and TOPMODEL runoff curves may be more suitable than the SCS-CN for different conditions. Lastly, we explore predictions of sediment and nutrient transport by applying the PDF describing runoff variability within our new framework.

Variation in freshwater fish assemblages along a regional elevation gradient in the northern Andes, Colombia

PubMed Central

Carvajal-Quintero, Juan D; Escobar, Federico; Alvarado, Fredy; Villa-Navarro, Francisco A; Jaramillo-Villa, Úrsula; Maldonado-Ocampo, Javier A

2015-01-01

Studies on elevation diversity gradients have covered a large number of taxa and regions throughout the world; however, studies of freshwater fish are scarce and restricted to examining their changes along a specific gradient. These studies have reported a monotonic decrease in species richness with increasing elevation, but ignore the high taxonomic differentiation of each headwater assemblage that may generate high β-diversity among them. Here, we analyzed how fish assemblages vary with elevation among regional elevation bands, and how these changes are related to four environmental clines and to changes in the distribution, habitat use, and the morphology of fish species. Using a standardized field sampling technique, we assessed three different diversity and two structural assemblage measures across six regional elevation bands located in the northern Andes (Colombia). Each species was assigned to a functional group based on its body shape, habitat use, morphological, and/or behavioral adaptations. Additionally, at each sampling site, we measured four environmental variables. Our analyses showed: (1) After a monotonic decrease in species richness, we detected an increase in richness in the upper part of the gradient; (2) diversity patterns vary depending on the diversity measure used; (3) diversity patterns can be attributed to changes in species distribution and in the richness and proportions of functional groups along the regional elevation gradient; and (4) diversity patterns and changes in functional groups are highly correlated with variations in environmental variables, which also vary with elevation. These results suggest a novel pattern of variation in species richness with elevation: Species richness increases at the headwaters of the northern Andes owing to the cumulative number of endemic species there. This highlights the need for large-scale studies and has important implications for the aquatic conservation of the region. PMID:26257874

Amphibian diversity and threatened species in a severely transformed neotropical region in Mexico.

PubMed

Meza-Parral, Yocoyani; Pineda, Eduardo

2015-01-01

Many regions around the world concentrate a large number of highly endangered species that have very restricted distributions. The mountainous region of central Veracruz, Mexico, is considered a priority area for amphibian conservation because of its high level of endemism and the number of threatened species. The original tropical montane cloud forest in the region has been dramatically reduced and fragmented and is now mainly confined to ravines and hillsides. We evaluated the current situation of amphibian diversity in the cloud forest fragments of this region by analyzing species richness and abundance, comparing assemblage structure and species composition, examining the distribution and abundance of threatened species, and identifying the local and landscape variables associated with the observed amphibian diversity. From June to October 2012 we sampled ten forest fragments, investing 944 person-hours of sampling effort. A total of 895 amphibians belonging to 16 species were recorded. Notable differences in species richness, abundance, and assemblage structure between forest fragments were observed. Species composition between pairs of fragments differed by an average of 53%, with the majority (58%) resulting from species replacement and the rest (42%) explained by differences in species richness. Half of the species detected are under threat of extinction according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and although their distribution and abundance varied markedly, there were also ubiquitous and abundant species, along with rare species of restricted distribution. The evident heterogeneity of the ten study sites indicates that to conserve amphibians in a mountainous region such as this one it is necessary to protect groups of fragments which represent the variability of the system. Both individually and together cloud forest fragments are very important to conservation because each remnant is inhabited by several threatened species, some of them at imminent risk of extinction.

Characterizing CDOM Spectral Variability Across Diverse Regions and Spectral Ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunert, Brice K.; Mouw, Colleen B.; Ciochetto, Audrey B.

2018-01-01

Satellite remote sensing of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) has focused on CDOM absorption (aCDOM) at a reference wavelength, as its magnitude provides insight into the underwater light field and large-scale biogeochemical processes. CDOM spectral slope, SCDOM, has been treated as a constant or semiconstant parameter in satellite retrievals of aCDOM despite significant regional and temporal variabilities. SCDOM and other optical metrics provide insights into CDOM composition, processing, food web dynamics, and carbon cycling. To date, much of this work relies on fluorescence techniques or aCDOM in spectral ranges unavailable to current and planned satellite sensors (e.g., <300 nm). In preparation for anticipated future hyperspectral satellite missions, we take the first step here of exploring global variability in SCDOM and fit deviations in the aCDOM spectra using the recently proposed Gaussian decomposition method. From this, we investigate if global variability in retrieved SCDOM and Gaussian components is significant and regionally distinct. We iteratively decreased the spectral range considered and analyzed the number, location, and magnitude of fitted Gaussian components to understand if a reduced spectral range impacts information obtained within a common spectral window. We compared the fitted slope from the Gaussian decomposition method to absorption-based indices that indicate CDOM composition to determine the ability of satellite-derived slope to inform the analysis and modeling of large-scale biogeochemical processes. Finally, we present implications of the observed variability for remote sensing of CDOM characteristics via SCDOM.

Low-copy nuclear primers and ycf1 primers in Cactaceae.

PubMed

Franck, Alan R; Cochrane, Bruce J; Garey, James R

2012-10-01

To increase the number of variable regions available for phylogenetic study in the Cactaceae, primers were developed for a portion of the plastid ycf1 gene and intron-spanning regions of two low-copy nuclear genes (isi1, nhx1). • Primers were tested on several families within Caryophyllales, focusing on the Cactaceae. Gel electrophoresis indicated positive amplification in most samples. Sequences of these three regions (isi1, nhx1, ycf1) from Harrisia exhibited variation similar to or greater than two plastid regions (atpB-rbcL intergenic spacer and rpl16 intron). • The isi, nhx, and ycf1 primers amplify phylogenetically useful information applicable to the Cactaceae and other families in the Caryophyllales.

Surface topography due to convection in a variable viscosity fluid - Application to short wavelength gravity anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, J.; Parmentier, E. M.

1985-01-01

Finite difference calculations of thermal convection in a fluid layer with a viscosity exponentially decreasing with temperature are performed in the context of examining the topography and gravity anomalies due to mantle convection. The surface topography and gravity anomalies are shown to be positive over regions of ascending flow and negative over regions of descending flow; at large Rayleigh numbers the amplitude of surface topography is inferred to depend on Rayleigh number to the power of 7/9. Compositional stratifications of the mantle is proposed as a mechanism for confining small-scale convection to a thin layer. A comparative analysis of the results with other available models is included.

On the contribution of reconstruction labor wages and material prices to demand surge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, Anna H.; Porter, Keith A.

2011-01-01

Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon of large-scale natural disasters, most commonly explained by higher repair costs (after a large- versus small-scale disaster) resulting from higher material prices and labor wages. This study tests this explanation by developing quantitative models for the cost change of sets, or "baskets," of repairs to damage caused by Atlantic hurricanes making landfall on the mainland United States. We define six such baskets, representing the total repair cost, and material and labor components, each for a typical residential or commercial property. We collect cost data from the leading provider of these data to insurance claims adjusters in the United States, and we calculate the cost changes from July to January for nine Atlantic hurricane seasons at fifty-two cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The data show that: changes in labor costs drive the changes in total repair costs; cost changes can vary significantly by geographic region and year; and cost changes for the residential basket of repairs are more volatile than the cost changes for the commercial basket. We then propose a series of multilevel regression models to predict the cost changes by considering several combinations of the following explanatory variables: the largest gradient wind speed at a city in a hurricane season; the number of tropical storms in a hurricane season whose center passes within 200 km of a city; and cost changes in the first two quarters of the year. We also allow the coefficients of the regression model to be stochastic, varying across groups defined by region of the Southeastern United States and year. Our best models predict that, for any city on the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts in any hurricane season, the residential total repair cost changes vary from 0.01 to 0.25, depending on the wind speed and number of storms, with an uncertainty of 0.1 (two standard errors of prediction) given the wind speed and number of storms. The commercial total repair cost changes vary from 0.005 to 0.15 with an uncertainty of 0.08. Our models including wind speed, the number of storms affecting a city, and cost changes in the first half of the year explain roughly half of the observed variability in cost changes. Additional explanatory variables that we have not considered may account for the remaining variability. Given these models, however, there is still considerable uncertainty in their predictions. This uncertainty arises from variations between groups defined by region and year, not from variations within a given region and year.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

SeqFIRE: a web application for automated extraction of indel regions and conserved blocks from protein multiple sequence alignments.

PubMed

Ajawatanawong, Pravech; Atkinson, Gemma C; Watson-Haigh, Nathan S; Mackenzie, Bryony; Baldauf, Sandra L

2012-07-01

Analyses of multiple sequence alignments generally focus on well-defined conserved sequence blocks, while the rest of the alignment is largely ignored or discarded. This is especially true in phylogenomics, where large multigene datasets are produced through automated pipelines. However, some of the most powerful phylogenetic markers have been found in the variable length regions of multiple alignments, particularly insertions/deletions (indels) in protein sequences. We have developed Sequence Feature and Indel Region Extractor (SeqFIRE) to enable the automated identification and extraction of indels from protein sequence alignments. The program can also extract conserved blocks and identify fast evolving sites using a combination of conservation and entropy. All major variables can be adjusted by the user, allowing them to identify the sets of variables most suited to a particular analysis or dataset. Thus, all major tasks in preparing an alignment for further analysis are combined in a single flexible and user-friendly program. The output includes a numbered list of indels, alignments in NEXUS format with indels annotated or removed and indel-only matrices. SeqFIRE is a user-friendly web application, freely available online at www.seqfire.org/.

Contribution of health workforce to health outcomes: empirical evidence from Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Mai Phuong; Mirzoev, Tolib; Le, Thi Minh

2016-11-16

In Vietnam, a lower-middle income country, while the overall skill- and knowledge-based quality of health workforce is improving, health workers are disproportionately distributed across different economic regions. A similar trend appears to be in relation to health outcomes between those regions. It is unclear, however, whether there is any relationship between the distribution of health workers and the achievement of health outcomes in the context of Vietnam. This study examines the statistical relationship between the availability of health workers and health outcomes across the different economic regions in Vietnam. We constructed a panel data of six economic regions covering 8 years (2006-2013) and used principal components analysis regressions to estimate the impact of health workforce on health outcomes. The dependent variables representing the outcomes included life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, and under-five mortality rates. Besides the health workforce as our target explanatory variable, we also controlled for key demographic factors including regional income per capita, poverty rate, illiteracy rate, and population density. The numbers of doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists have been rising in the country over the last decade. However, there are notable differences across the different categories. For example, while the numbers of nurses increased considerably between 2006 and 2013, the number of pharmacists slightly decreased between 2011 and 2013. We found statistically significant evidence of the impact of density of doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists on improvement to life expectancy and reduction of infant and under-five mortality rates. Availability of different categories of health workforce can positively contribute to improvements in health outcomes and ultimately extend the life expectancy of populations. Therefore, increasing investment into more equitable distribution of four main categories of health workforce (doctors, nurses, midwives, and pharmacists) can be an important strategy for improving health outcomes in Vietnam and other similar contexts. Future interventions will also need to consider an integrated approach, building on the link between the health and the development.

Refining the 22q11.2 deletion breakpoints in DiGeorge syndrome by aCGH

PubMed Central

Bittel, D.C.; Yu, S.; Newkirk, H.; Kibiryeva, N.; Holt, S.; Butler, M.G.; Cooley, L.D.

2009-01-01

Hemizygous deletions of the chromosome 22q11.2 region result in the 22q11.2 deletion syndrome also referred to as DiGeorge, Velocardiofacial or Shprintzen syndromes. The phenotype is variable but commonly includes conotruncal cardiac defects, palatal abnormalities, learning and behavioral problems, immune deficiency, and facial anomalies. Four distinct highly homologous blocks of low copy number repeat sequences (LCRs) flank the deletion region. Mispairing of LCRs during meiosis with unequal meiotic exchange is assumed to cause the recurrent and consistent deletions. The proximal LCR is reportedly located at 22q11.2 from 17.037 to 17.083 Mb while the distal LCR is located from 19.835 to 19.880 Mb. Although the chromosome breakpoints are thought to localize to the LCRs, the positions of the breakpoints have been investigated in only a few individuals. Therefore, we used high resolution oligonucleotide-based 244K microarray comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) to resolve the breakpoints in a cohort of 20 subjects with known 22q11.2 deletions. We also investigated copy number variation (CNV) in the rest of the genome. The 22q11.2 breaks occurred on either side of the LCR in our subjects, although more commonly on the distal side of the reported proximal LCR. The proximal breakpoints in our subjects spanned the region from 17.036 to 17.398 Mb. This region includes the genes DGCR6 (DiGeorge syndrome critical region protein 6) and PRODH (proline dehydrogenase 1), along with three open reading frames that may encode proteins of unknown function. The distal breakpoints spanned the region from 19.788 to 20.122 Mb. This region includes the genes GGT2 (gamma-glutamyltransferase-like protein 2), HIC2 (hypermethylated in cancer 2), and multiple transcripts of unknown function. The genes in these two breakpoint regions are variably hemizygous depending on the location of the breakpoints. Our 20 subjects had 254 CNVs throughout the genome, 94 duplications and 160 deletions, ranging in size from 1 kb to 2.4 Mb. The presence or absence of genes at the breakpoints depending on the size of the deletion plus variation in the rest of the genome due to CNVs likely contribute to the variable phenotype associated with the 22q11.2 deletion or DiGeorge syndrome. PMID:19420922

Combining lake and watershed characteristics with Landsat TM data for remote estimation of regional lake clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCullough, Ian M.; Loftin, Cyndy; Sader, Steven A.

2012-01-01

Water clarity is a reliable indicator of lake productivity and an ideal metric of regional water quality. Clarity is an indicator of other water quality variables including chlorophyll-a, total phosphorus and trophic status; however, unlike these metrics, clarity can be accurately and efficiently estimated remotely on a regional scale. Remote sensing is useful in regions containing a large number of lakes that are cost prohibitive to monitor regularly using traditional field methods. Field-assessed lakes generally are easily accessible and may represent a spatially irregular, non-random sample of a region. We developed a remote monitoring program for Maine lakes >8 ha (1511 lakes) to supplement existing field monitoring programs. We combined Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) brightness values for TM bands 1 (blue) and 3 (red) to estimate water clarity (secchi disk depth) during 1990–2010. Although similar procedures have been applied to Minnesota and Wisconsin lakes, neither state incorporates physical lake variables or watershed characteristics that potentially affect clarity into their models. Average lake depth consistently improved model fitness, and the proportion of wetland area in lake watersheds also explained variability in clarity in some cases. Nine regression models predicted water clarity (R2 = 0.69–0.90) during 1990–2010, with separate models for eastern (TM path 11; four models) and western Maine (TM path 12; five models that captured differences in topography and landscape disturbance. Average absolute difference between model-estimated and observed secchi depth ranged 0.65–1.03 m. Eutrophic and mesotrophic lakes consistently were estimated more accurately than oligotrophic lakes. Our results show that TM bands 1 and 3 can be used to estimate regional lake water clarity outside the Great Lakes Region and that the accuracy of estimates is improved with additional model variables that reflect physical lake characteristics and watershed conditions.

Plastid primers for angiosperm phylogenetics and phylogeography.

PubMed

Prince, Linda M

2015-06-01

PCR primers are available for virtually every region of the plastid genome. Selection of which primer pairs to use is second only to selection of the genic region. This is particularly true for research at the species/population interface. Primer pairs for 130 regions of the chloroplast genome were evaluated in 12 species distributed across the angiosperms. Likelihood of amplification success was inferred based upon number and location of mismatches to target sequence. Intraspecific sequence variability was evaluated under three different criteria in four species. Many published primer pairs should work across all taxa sampled, with the exception of failure due to genomic reorganization events. Universal barcoding primers were the least likely to work (65% success). The list of most variable regions for use within species has little in common with the lists identified in prior studies. Published primer sequences should amplify a diversity of flowering plant DNAs, even those designed for specific taxonomic groups. "Universal" primers may have extremely limited utility. There was little consistency in likelihood of amplification success for any given publication across lineages or within lineage across publications.

Regional co-variability of spatial and temporal soil moisture-precipitation coupling in North Africa: an observational perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, Irina Y.; van Heerwaarden, Chiel C.; Hohenegger, Cathy; Guichard, Françoise

2018-06-01

The magnitude and sign of soil moisture-precipitation coupling (SMPC) is investigated using a probability-based approach and 10 years of daily microwave satellite data across North Africa at a 1° horizontal scale. Specifically, the co-existence and co-variability of spatial (i.e. using soil moisture gradients) and temporal (i.e. using soil moisture anomaly) soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall is explored. The analysis shows that in the semi-arid environment of the Sahel, the negative spatial and the negative temporal coupling relationships do not only co-exist, but are also dependent on one another. Hence, if afternoon rain falls over temporally drier soils, it is likely to be surrounded by a wetter environment. Two regions are identified as SMPC hot spots. These are the south-western part of the domain (7-15° N, 10° W-7° E), with the most robust negative SMPC signal, and the South Sudanese region (5-13° N, 24-34° E). The sign and significance of the coupling in the latter region is found to be largely modulated by the presence of wetlands and is susceptible to the number of long-lived propagating convective systems. The presence of wetlands and an irrigated land area is found to account for about 30 % of strong and significant spatial SMPC in the North African domain. This study provides the first insight into regional variability of SMPC in North Africa, and supports the potential relevance of mechanisms associated with enhanced sensible heat flux and mesoscale variability in surface soil moisture for deep convection development.

Immunogenicity of variable regions of hepatitis C virus proteins: selection and modification of peptide epitopes to assess hepatitis C virus genotypes by ELISA.

PubMed

Rodríguez-López, M; Riezu-Boj, J I; Ruiz, M; Berasain, C; Civeira, M P; Prieto, J; Borrás-Cuesta, F

1999-03-01

The immunogenicity of variable regions of hepatitis C virus (HCV) proteins was studied by ELISA by using 543 synthetic peptides from 120 variable regions and 90 sera from HCV-infected patients. Some regions from certain genotypes were less immunogenic, or even non-immunogenic, compared with their equivalents in other genotypes. However, the mean recognition of all peptides from genotypes 1a, 1b and 3 by sera infected with genotypes 1a, 1b and 3, respectively, showed no significant differences, suggesting a similar overall immunogenicity of variable regions from these genotypes. Proteins NS4a, NS4b and NS5a were found to be the most immunogenic. Recognition of individual peptides by the sera of infected patients showed that the humoral response against HCV is patient-dependent. The work shows that 15-mer peptides may encompass several B-cell epitopes. These epitopes may lie in slightly different positions in different genotypes. Thirty-one percent of the 543 peptides were recognized by some of the 35 healthy donors. This may be a reflection of the large number of antigens to which they had been exposed, but it may also reflect a strategy of HCV to respond to immune pressure. After selection and modification, a set of 40 peptides was used to assess genotypes 1a, 1b, 1, 2 and 3 in the sera of HCV-infected patients, with sensitivities of 34.1, 48.5, 68.8, 58.3 and 48.9% and specificities of 100, 99.1, 97.1, 99.5 and 99%, respectively. The overall sensitivity and specificity for the assessment of genotypes 1, 2 and 3 were 64 and 98%, respectively.

An X-ray survey of the central molecular zone: Variability of the Fe Kα emission line

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrier, R.; Clavel, M.; Soldi, S.; Goldwurm, A.; Ponti, G.; Morris, M. R.; Chuard, D.

2018-05-01

There is now abundant evidence that the luminosity of the Galactic super-massive black hole (SMBH) has not always been as low as it is nowadays. The observation of varying non-thermal diffuse X-ray emission in molecular complexes in the central 300 pc has been interpreted as delayed reflection of a past illumination by bright outbursts of the SMBH. The observation of different variability timescales of the reflected emission in the Sgr A molecular complex can be well explained if the X-ray emission of at least two distinct and relatively short events (i.e. about 10 yr or less) is currently propagating through the region. The number of such events or the presence of a long-duration illumination are open questions. Variability of the reflected emission all over of the central 300 pc, in particular in the 6.4 keV Fe Kα line, can bring strong constraints. To do so we performed a deep scan of the inner 300 pc with XMM-Newton in 2012. Together with all the archive data taken over the course of the mission, and in particular a similar albeit more shallow scan performed in 2000-2001, this allows for a detailed study of variability of the 6.4 keV line emission in the region, which we present here. We show that the overall 6.4 keV emission does not strongly vary on average, but variations are very pronounced on smaller scales. In particular, most regions showing bright reflection emission in 2000-2001 significantly decrease by 2012. We discuss those regions and present newly illuminated features. The absence of bright steady emission argues against the presence of an echo from an event of multi-centennial duration and most, if not all, of the emission can likely be explained by a limited number of relatively short (i.e. up to 10 yr) events. Images of the Fe Kα emission as FITS files are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/612/A102

Sparse reconstruction for quantitative bioluminescence tomography based on the incomplete variables truncated conjugate gradient method.

PubMed

He, Xiaowei; Liang, Jimin; Wang, Xiaorui; Yu, Jingjing; Qu, Xiaochao; Wang, Xiaodong; Hou, Yanbin; Chen, Duofang; Liu, Fang; Tian, Jie

2010-11-22

In this paper, we present an incomplete variables truncated conjugate gradient (IVTCG) method for bioluminescence tomography (BLT). Considering the sparse characteristic of the light source and insufficient surface measurement in the BLT scenarios, we combine a sparseness-inducing (ℓ1 norm) regularization term with a quadratic error term in the IVTCG-based framework for solving the inverse problem. By limiting the number of variables updated at each iterative and combining a variable splitting strategy to find the search direction more efficiently, it obtains fast and stable source reconstruction, even without a priori information of the permissible source region and multispectral measurements. Numerical experiments on a mouse atlas validate the effectiveness of the method. In vivo mouse experimental results further indicate its potential for a practical BLT system.

On the mid-infrared variability of candidate eruptive variables (exors): A comparison between Spitzer and WISE data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antoniucci, S.; Giannini, T.; Li Causi, G.

2014-02-10

Aiming to statistically study the variability in the mid-IR of young stellar objects, we have compared the 3.6, 4.5, and 24 μm Spitzer fluxes of 1478 sources belonging to the C2D (Cores to Disks) legacy program with the WISE fluxes at 3.4, 4.6, and 22 μm. From this comparison, we have selected a robust sample of 34 variable sources. Their variations were classified per spectral Class (according to the widely accepted scheme of Class I/flat/II/III protostars), and per star forming region. On average, the number of variable sources decreases with increasing Class and is definitely higher in Perseus and Ophiuchusmore » than in Chamaeleon and Lupus. According to the paradigm Class ≡ Evolution, the photometric variability can be considered to be a feature more pronounced in less evolved protostars, and, as such, related to accretion processes. Moreover, our statistical findings agree with the current knowledge of star formation activity in different regions. The 34 selected variables were further investigated for similarities with known young eruptive variables, namely the EXors. In particular, we analyzed (1) the shape of the spectral energy distribution, (2) the IR excess over the stellar photosphere, (3) magnitude versus color variations, and (4) output parameters of model fitting. This first systematic search for EXors ends up with 11 bona fide candidates that can be considered as suitable targets for monitoring or future investigations.« less

Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Y.

2015-12-01

A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional scale climate change projections was developed to cover an uncertainty of multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments (future minus present climate states) estimated by GCM simulation results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and were added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding to an objective analysis data. This data handling is regarded to be an advanced method of the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method previously developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The incremental handling for GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. Three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were used to estimate the response to the perturbation of the mode. For the probabilistic analysis, climatological variables of RCMs were assumed to show linear response to the multiple modal perturbations, although the non-linearity was seen for local scale rainfall. Probability of temperature was able to be estimated within two modes perturbation simulations, where the number of RCM simulations for the future climate is five. On the other hand, local scale rainfalls needed four modes simulations, where the number of the RCM simulations is nine. The probabilistic method is expected to be used for regional scale climate change impact assessment in the future.

Iceberg severity off eastern North America: Its relationship to sea ice variability and climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marko, J.R.; Fissel, D.B.; Wadhams, P.

1994-09-01

Iceberg trajectory, deterioration (mass loss), and sea ice data are reviewed to identify the sources of observed interannual and seasonal variations in the numbers of icebergs passing south of 48[degrees]N off eastern North America. The results show the dominant role of sea ice in the observed variations. Important mechanisms involved include both seasonal modulation of the southerly iceberg flow by ice cover control of probabilities for entrapment and decay in shallow water, and the suppression of iceberg melt/deterioration rates by high concentrations of sea ice. The Labrador spring ice extent, shown to be the critical parameter in interannual iceberg numbermore » variability, was found to be either determined by or closely correlated with midwinter Davis Strait ice extents. Agreement obtained between observed year-to-year and seasonal number variations with computations based upon a simple iceberg dissipation model suggests that downstream iceberg numbers are relatively insensitive to iceberg production rates and to fluctuations in southerly iceberg fluxes in areas north of Baffin Island. Past variations in the Davis Strait ice index and annual ice extents are studied to identify trends and relationships between regional and larger-scale global climate parameters. It was found that, on decadal timescales in the post-1960 period of reasonable data quality, regional climate parameters have varied, roughly, out of phase with corresponding global and hemispheric changes. These observations are compared with expectations in terms of model results to evaluate current GCM-based capabilities for simulating recent regional behavior. 64 refs., 11 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Clonal origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains, Papua New Guinea, 2009-2011.

PubMed

Horwood, Paul F; Collins, Deirdre; Jonduo, Marinjho H; Rosewell, Alexander; Dutta, Samir R; Dagina, Rosheila; Ropa, Berry; Siba, Peter M; Greenhill, Andrew R

2011-11-01

We used multilocus sequence typing and variable number tandem repeat analysis to determine the clonal origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains from an outbreak of cholera that began in 2009 in Papua New Guinea. The epidemic is ongoing, and transmission risk is elevated within the Pacific region.

77 FR 76871 - Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; State of Colorado; Regional Haze State...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-31

... nitrogen oxides. xiii. The initials NPS mean or refer to National Park Service. xiv. The initials PM 2.5..., nitrogen deposition, and mercury emissions and deposition. The State spent considerable time and conducted sequential and extended hearings to develop a plan which seeks to balance a number of variables beyond those...

Interaction of Dopamine Transporter Gene and Observed Parenting Behaviors on Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, James J.; Lee, Steve S.

2013-01-01

Emerging evidence suggests that some individuals may be simultaneously more responsive to the effects from environmental adversity "and" enrichment (i.e., differential susceptibility). Given that parenting behavior and a variable number tandem repeat polymorphism in the 3'untranslated region of the dopamine transporter (DAT1) gene are…

Bridging the gap between strategic and management forest inventories

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts

2009-01-01

Strategic forest inventory programs collect information for a large number of variables on a relatively sparse array of field plots. Data from these inventories are used to produce estimates for large areas such as states and provinces, regions, or countries. The purpose of management forest inventories is to guide management decisions for small areas such as stands....

Association of temperature and historical dynamics of malaria in the Republic of Korea, including reemergence in 1993

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Plasmodium vivax malaria reemerged in the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 1993 after it had been declared malaria free in 1979. Malaria rapidly increased and peaked in 2000 with 4,142 cases. Lower but variable numbers of cases were reported through 2011. We examined the association of regional climate tr...

Predictors of Attrition and Achievement in a Tertiary Bridging Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whannell, Robert

2013-01-01

This study examines the attrition and achievement of a sample of 295 students in an on-campus tertiary bridging program at a regional university. A logistic regression analysis using enrolment status, age and the number of absences from scheduled classes at week three of the semester as predictor variables correctly predicted 92.8 percent of…

A synthesis of sedimentary records of Australian environmental change during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler, J. J.; Karoly, D. J.; Gell, P.; Goodwin, I. D.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of Southern Hemispheric climate variability on multidecadal to multicentennial timescales is limited by a scarcity of quantitative, highly resolved climate records, a problem which is particularly manifest in Australia. To date there are no quantitative, annually resolved records from within continental Australia which extend further back in time than the most recent c. 300 years [Neukom and Gergis, 2012; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013]. By contrast, a number of marine, lake, peat and speleothem sedimentary records exist, some of which span multiple millennia at sub-decadal resolution. Here we report a database of existing sedimentary records of environmental change in Australia [Freeman et al., 2011], of which 25 have sample resolutions < 100 years/sample and which span > 500 years in duration. The majority of these records are located in southeastern Australia, providing an invaluable resource with which to examine regional scale climate and environmental change. Although most of the records can not be quantitatively related to climate variability, Empirical Orthogonal Functions coupled with Monte Carlo iterative age modelling, demonstrate coherent patterns of environmental and ecological change. This coherency, as well as comparisons with a limited number of quantitative records, suggests that regional hydroclimatic changes were responsible for the observed patterns. Here, we discuss the implications of these findings with respect to Southern Hemisphere climate during the last 2000 years. In addition, we review the progress and potential of ongoing research in the region. References: Freeman, R., I. D. Goodwin, and T. Donovan (2011), Paleoclimate data synthesis and data base for the reconstruction of climate variability and impacts in NSW over the past 2000 years., Climate Futures Technical Report, 1/2011, 50 pages. Neukom, R., and J. Gergis (2012), Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years, Holocene, 22(5), 501-524, doi:10.1177/0959683611427335. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013), Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Prieto, Víctor; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Barasona, José Angel; Acevedo, Pelayo; Romero, Beatriz; Rodriguez-Campos, Sabrina; Gortázar, Christian; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Vicente, Joaquín

2012-08-30

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

Potential to kinetic energy conversion in wave number domain for the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, H.-J.; Vincent, D. G.

1984-01-01

Preliminary results of a wave number study conducted for the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) using FGGE data for the period January 10-27, 1979 are reported. In particular, three variables (geomagnetic height, z, vertical p-velocity, omega, and temperature, T) and one energy conversion quantity, omega-alpha (where alpha is the specific volume), are shown. It is demonstrated that wave number 4 plays an important role in the conversion from available potential energy to kinetic energy in the Southern Hemisphere tropics, particularly in the vicinity of the SPCZ. It is therefore suggested that the development and movement of wave number 4 waves be carefully monitored in making forecasts for the South Pacific region.

Searching for I-band variability in stars in the M/L spectral transition region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsay, Gavin; Hakala, Pasi; Doyle, J. Gerry

2015-10-01

We report on I-band photometric observations of 21 stars with spectral types between M8 and L4 made using the Isaac Newton Telescope. The total amount of time for observations which had a cadence of <2.3 min was 58.5 h, with additional data with lower cadence. We test for photometric variability using the Kruskal-Wallis H-test and find that four sources (2MASS J10224821+5825453, 2MASS J07464256+2000321, 2MASS J16262034+3925190 and 2MASS J12464678+4027150) were found to be significantly variable at least on one epoch. Three of these sources are reported as photometrically variable for the first time. If we include sources which were deemed marginally variable, the number of variable sources is 6 (29 per cent). No flares were detected from any source. The percentage of sources which we found were variable is similar to previous studies. We summarize the mechanisms which have been put forward to explain the light curves of brown dwarfs.

Regional and social differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and vaccination. Analysis of data from a whole birth cohort of 6-year old children in a prosperous German city

PubMed Central

Koller, Daniela; Mielck, Andreas

2009-01-01

Background Studies on health inequalities still focus mostly on adults. Research about social disparities and health in children is slowly increasing, also in Germany, but these studies are mostly restricted to individual social variables derived from the parents to determine social class. This paper analyses the data of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment to determine differences concerning overweight, participation in health check-ups and immunization; it includes individual social variables but also regional variables describing the social environment of the children. Methods The dataset includes 9,353 children who started school in 2004 in Munich, Germany. Three dependent variables are included (i.e. overweight, health check-ups, vaccinations). The individual level social variables are: children's sex, mother tongue of the parents, Kindergarten visit. On the small scale school district level, two regional social variables could be included as well, i.e. percentage of single-parent households, percentage of households with low educational level. Associations are assessed by cross tables and regression analyses. The regional level variables are included by multilevel analyses. Results The analyses indicate that there is a large variation between the school districts concerning the three dependent variables, and that there is no district with very 'problematic values' for all three of them (i.e. high percentage of overweight, low levels of health check-ups and vaccinations). Throughout the bivariate and multivariate analyses, the mother tongue of the children's parents shows the most pronounced association with these dependent variables; i.e. children growing up in non-German-speaking families tend to be more overweight and don't visit preventive check-ups as often as children of German-speaking parents. An opposite association can be seen concerning vaccinations. Regional level influences are present as well, but they are rather small when the individual level social variables are controlled for. Conclusion The dataset of the medical check-up prior to school enrolment offers a great opportunity for public health research, as it comprises a whole age cohort. The number and scope of variables is quite limited, though. On one hand, it includes only few variables on health or health related risks. On the other, it would be important to have more information from the region where the children live, e.g. the availability of community and health care services for parents and children, social networks of families with children, areas where children can play outside, traffic noise and air pollution. Despite these shortcomings, the need for specific interventions can already be derived from the data analyzed here, e.g. programs to reduce overweight in children should focus on parents with a mother tongue other than German. PMID:19183444

Comparison of Housing Construction Development in Selected Regions of Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvorský, Ján; Petráková, Zora; Hollý, Ján

2017-12-01

In fast-growing countries, the economic growth, which came after the global financial crisis, ought to be manifested in the development of housing policy. The development of the region is directly related to the increase of the quality of living of its inhabitants. Housing construction and its relation with the availability of housing is a key issue for population overall. Comparison of its development in selected regions is important for experts in the field of construction, mayors of the regions, the state, but especially for the inhabitants themselves. The aim of the article is to compare the number of new dwellings with building permits and completed dwellings with final building approval between selected regions by using a mathematical statistics method - “Analysis of variance”. The article also uses the tools of descriptive statistics such as a point graph, a graph of deviations from the average, basic statistical characteristics of mean and variability. Qualitative factors influencing the construction of flats as well as the causes of quantitative differences in the number of started apartments under construction and completed apartments in selected regions of Central Europe are the subjects of the article’s conclusions.

Physical activity and its relationship with perceived environment among adults living in a region of low socioeconomic level.

PubMed

Florindo, Alex Antonio; Salvador, Emanuel Péricles; Reis, Rodrigo Siqueira

2013-05-01

The environment has a great influence on people's lifestyles and their capacity to choose healthy habits. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between perceived environment and physical activity among adults living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. This was a cross-sectional population-based study conducted with 890 people age 18 years or over. Physical activity was measured through the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ; long version) and perceived environment was evaluated using the Neighborhood Walkability Scale (NEWS) adapted. Poisson's regression was used for statistical analyses and prevalence ratios were calculated. The outcome variable was the attainment of at least 150 minutes per week of physical activities. The independent variables consisted of perceived environment variables and control variables (sex, age, schooling, time living in the home, and number of cars per household). The perceived environment variables that explained physical activity were: receiving invitations from friends for activities (P = .012), low environmental pollution scores (p trend = 0.030) and high general safety scores (P-trend = 0.039). These results suggest that physical activity promotion in regions like this should be envisaged as a complex phenomenon and investments in public safety, prevention and combating of environmental pollution and social support networks are needed.

Dynamic cluster generation for a fuzzy classifier with ellipsoidal regions.

PubMed

Abe, S

1998-01-01

In this paper, we discuss a fuzzy classifier with ellipsoidal regions that dynamically generates clusters. First, for the data belonging to a class we define a fuzzy rule with an ellipsoidal region. Namely, using the training data for each class, we calculate the center and the covariance matrix of the ellipsoidal region for the class. Then we tune the fuzzy rules, i.e., the slopes of the membership functions, successively until there is no improvement in the recognition rate of the training data. Then if the number of the data belonging to a class that are misclassified into another class exceeds a prescribed number, we define a new cluster to which those data belong and the associated fuzzy rule. Then we tune the newly defined fuzzy rules in the similar way as stated above, fixing the already obtained fuzzy rules. We iterate generation of clusters and tuning of the newly generated fuzzy rules until the number of the data belonging to a class that are misclassified into another class does not exceed the prescribed number. We evaluate our method using thyroid data, Japanese Hiragana data of vehicle license plates, and blood cell data. By dynamic cluster generation, the generalization ability of the classifier is improved and the recognition rate of the fuzzy classifier for the test data is the best among the neural network classifiers and other fuzzy classifiers if there are no discrete input variables.

A Search Model for Imperfectly Detected Targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert

2012-01-01

Under the assumptions that 1) the search region can be divided up into N non-overlapping sub-regions that are searched sequentially, 2) the probability of detection is unity if a sub-region is selected, and 3) no information is available to guide the search, there are two extreme case models. The search can be done perfectly, leading to a uniform distribution over the number of searches required, or the search can be done with no memory, leading to a geometric distribution for the number of searches required with a success probability of 1/N. If the probability of detection P is less than unity, but the search is done otherwise perfectly, the searcher will have to search the N regions repeatedly until detection occurs. The number of searches is thus the sum two random variables. One is N times the number of full searches (a geometric distribution with success probability P) and the other is the uniform distribution over the integers 1 to N. The first three moments of this distribution were computed, giving the mean, standard deviation, and the kurtosis of the distribution as a function of the two parameters. The model was fit to the data presented last year (Ahumada, Billington, & Kaiwi, 2 required to find a single pixel target on a simulated horizon. The model gave a good fit to the three moments for all three observers.

Effects of land use on lake nutrients: The importance of scale, hydrologic connectivity, and region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

2015-01-01

Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales.

E-waste collection in Italy: Results from an exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Favot, Marinella; Grassetti, Luca

2017-09-01

This study looks at the performance of household electrical and electronic waste (WEEE) collection in 20 Italian regions from 2008 to 2015. The impact of several explicative variables on the results of e-waste collection is evaluated. The independent variables are socio-economic and demographic ones (age, gender, household size, education level, migration and income) along with technical-organisational variables (population density, presence of metropoles, macro regions, characteristics of the territory, percentage of household waste collected separately and number of e-waste collection points). The results show that the presence of collection points, the percentage of household waste collected separately and the percentage of females are positively correlated with the kg collected per inhabitant per year. For example, a variation of 1% of input (presence of collection points) corresponds to a 0.25% variation in the output (collection results) while 1% difference in the percentage of females in the population corresponds to a 7.549% difference in the collection rate. Population density, instead, is negatively correlated. It is interesting to note that there is a discrepancy between the Southern regions and the Centre regions (the former have an outcome 0.66 times lower than the latter) while the Northern regions perform similarly to the Centre ones. Moreover, the first year (2008) had a very low performance compared to the following years when the scheme constantly improved, mainly due to the additional collection points available. The Stochastic Frontier Model allows for the identification of the optimal production function among the 20 Italian regions. The best performing region is Tuscany (in the Centre), followed by Sardinia and Sicily (in the South). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of Land Use on Lake Nutrients: The Importance of Scale, Hydrologic Connectivity, and Region

PubMed Central

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Wagner, Tyler; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary Tate

2015-01-01

Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales. PMID:26267813

Spatial variability and trends in Younger Dryas equilibrium line altitudes across the European Alps using a hypsometrically based ELA model: results and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.; Maurer, J. M.

2016-12-01

Alpine glaciers constitute an important component of terrestrial paleoclimate records due to, among other characteristics, their high sensitivity to climate change, near global extent, and their integration of myriad climate variables into a single, easily detected signal. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit representation of climate than many other glacier properties, ELA methods allow for more direct comparisons of multiple glaciers within or between regions. Such comparisons allow for more complete investigations of the ultimate causes of mountain glaciation during specific events. Many studies however tend to focus on a limited number of sites, and employ a large variety of different techniques for ELA reconstruction between studies, making wider climate implications more tenuous. Methods of ELA reconstruction that can be rapidly and consistently applied to an arbitrary number of paleo-glaciers would provide a more accurate portrayal of the changes in climate across a given region. Here we present ELA reconstructions from Egesen Stadial moraines across the European Alps using an ELA model accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length, including several glaciers constrained to the Younger Dryas using surface exposure dating techniques. We compare reconstructed Younger Dryas ELA values to modern ELA values using the same model, or using end of summer snowline estimates where no glacier is currently present. We further provide uncertainty estimates on the ΔELA using bootstrapped Monte Carlo simulations for the various input parameters. Preliminary results compare favorably to previous glacier studies of the European Younger Dryas, but provide greater context from many glaciers across the region as a whole. Such results allow for a more thorough investigation of the spatial variability and trends in climate during the Younger Dryas across the European Alps, and comparisons of other regions in the future.

Relative roles of weather variables and change in human population in malaria: comparison over different states of India.

PubMed

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria.

Relative Roles of Weather Variables and Change in Human Population in Malaria: Comparison over Different States of India

PubMed Central

Goswami, Prashant; Murty, Upadhayula Suryanarayana; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Krishnan, Swathi Trithala

2014-01-01

Background Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance) and change in host (human) population, in the change in disease load. Method We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases. Results For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence. Conclusion The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India). Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria. PMID:24971510

A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.

The Uranian bow shock - Voyager 2 inbound observations of a high Mach number shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagenal, Fran; Belcher, John W.; Sittler, Edward C., Jr.; Lepping, Ronald P.

1987-01-01

The Voyager 2 magnetometer and plasma detector measured a high Mach number, high beta bow shock on the dayside of the Uranian magnetosphere. Although the average conditions on either side of the shock are consistent with the Rankine-Hugoniot (MHD) relations for a stationary, quasi-perpendicular shock, the data revealed both detailed structure in the transition region as well as considerable variability in the downstream magnetosheath plasma. The bulk plasma parameters and the magnetic field exhibited some of the characteristics of a supercritical shock: an overshoot followed by damped oscillations downstream, consistent with recent theoretical models of high Mach number quasi-perpendicular shocks.

Personal space smoking restrictions among African Americans.

PubMed

King, Gary; Mallett, Robyn; Kozlowski, Lynn; Bendel, Robert B; Nahata, Sunny

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the association between implementing a personal space smoking restriction for the home or automobile, and various sociodemographic, social, behavioral, and attitudinal variables. Approximately 1000 African-American adults (aged >18 years) residing in non-institutionalized settings were randomly selected using a cross-sectional stratified cluster sample of ten U.S. congressional districts represented by African Americans. A 62.0% and 70.4% ban was found, respectively, on smoking in homes and cars. Multivariate analysis revealed that region, marital status, number of friends who smoked, beliefs about environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), and smoking status predicted home smoking bans, while age, number of children in household, number of friends who smoked, and beliefs about ETS and smoking status predicted car smoking bans. Results suggest that a substantial segment of African Americans have accepted and translated public policy concerns about ETS into practice and reveal other variables that could be targeted in future interventions to increase implementation of personal space smoking restrictions.

Proposal of a Consensus Set of Hypervariable Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive-Unit–Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Loci for Subtyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing Isolates

PubMed Central

Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Wahl, Céline; Hanekom, Madeleine; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Drobniewski, Francis; Maeda, Shinji; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Mokrousov, Igor; Niemann, Stefan; Kontsevaya, Irina; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sng, Li-Hwei; Warren, Robin M.

2014-01-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing strains represent targets of special importance for molecular surveillance of tuberculosis (TB), especially because they are associated with spread of multidrug resistance in some world regions. Standard 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit–variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing lacks resolution power for accurately discriminating closely related clones that often compose Beijing strain populations. Therefore, we evaluated a set of 7 additional, hypervariable MIRU-VNTR loci for better resolution and tracing of such strains, using a collection of 535 Beijing isolates from six world regions where these strains are known to be prevalent. The typeability and interlaboratory reproducibility of these hypervariable loci were lower than those of the 24 standard loci. Three loci (2163a, 3155, and 3336) were excluded because of their redundant variability and/or more frequent noninterpretable results compared to the 4 other markers. The use of the remaining 4-locus set (1982, 3232, 3820, and 4120) increased the number of types by 52% (from 223 to 340) and reduced the clustering rate from 58.3 to 36.6%, when combined with the use of the standard 24-locus set. Known major clonal complexes/24-locus-based clusters were all subdivided, although the degree of subdivision varied depending on the complex. Only five single-locus variations were detected among the hypervariable loci of an additional panel of 92 isolates, representing 15 years of clonal spread of a single Beijing strain in a geographically restricted setting. On this calibrated basis, we propose this 4-locus set as a consensus for subtyping Beijing clonal complexes and clusters, after standard typing. PMID:24172154

Proposal of a consensus set of hypervariable mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat loci for subtyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing isolates.

PubMed

Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Wahl, Céline; Hanekom, Madeleine; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Drobniewski, Francis; Maeda, Shinji; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Mokrousov, Igor; Niemann, Stefan; Kontsevaya, Irina; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sng, Li-Hwei; Warren, Robin M; Supply, Philip

2014-01-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing strains represent targets of special importance for molecular surveillance of tuberculosis (TB), especially because they are associated with spread of multidrug resistance in some world regions. Standard 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing lacks resolution power for accurately discriminating closely related clones that often compose Beijing strain populations. Therefore, we evaluated a set of 7 additional, hypervariable MIRU-VNTR loci for better resolution and tracing of such strains, using a collection of 535 Beijing isolates from six world regions where these strains are known to be prevalent. The typeability and interlaboratory reproducibility of these hypervariable loci were lower than those of the 24 standard loci. Three loci (2163a, 3155, and 3336) were excluded because of their redundant variability and/or more frequent noninterpretable results compared to the 4 other markers. The use of the remaining 4-locus set (1982, 3232, 3820, and 4120) increased the number of types by 52% (from 223 to 340) and reduced the clustering rate from 58.3 to 36.6%, when combined with the use of the standard 24-locus set. Known major clonal complexes/24-locus-based clusters were all subdivided, although the degree of subdivision varied depending on the complex. Only five single-locus variations were detected among the hypervariable loci of an additional panel of 92 isolates, representing 15 years of clonal spread of a single Beijing strain in a geographically restricted setting. On this calibrated basis, we propose this 4-locus set as a consensus for subtyping Beijing clonal complexes and clusters, after standard typing.

Resurgence of Pertussis and Emergence of the Ptxp3 Toxin Promoter Allele in South Italy.

PubMed

Loconsole, Daniela; De Robertis, Anna Lisa; Morea, Anna; Metallo, Angela; Lopalco, Pier Luigi; Chironna, Maria

2018-05-01

Despite universal immunization programs, pertussis remains a major public health concern. This study aimed to describe the pertussis epidemiology in the Puglia region in 2006-2015 and to identify recent polymorphisms in Bordetella pertussis virulence-associated genes. The pertussis cases in 2006-2015 were identified from the National Hospital Discharge Database and the Information System of Infectious Diseases. Samples of pertussis cases in 2014-2016 that were confirmed by the Regional Reference Laboratory were subjected to ptxA, ptxP and prn gene sequencing and, in 10 cases, multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis. In Puglia in 2006-2015, the pertussis incidence rose from an average of 1.39/100,000 inhabitants in 2006-2013 to 2.56-2.54/100,000 in 2014-2015. In infants <1 year of age, the incidence rose from an average of 60.4/100,000 infants in 2006-2013 to 149.9/100,000 in 2015. Of the 661 cases recorded in 2006-2015, 80.3% required hospitalization; of these, 45.4% were <1 year of age. Of the 80 sequenced samples, the allelic profile ptxA1-ptxP3-prn2 was detected in 74. This variant was detected in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Six Bordetella pertussis samples were prn deficient. The multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis cases exhibited multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis-type 27. The pertussis incidence in Puglia has risen. The hypervirulent strain was also found in vaccinated people. This suggests bacterial adaptation to the vaccine and raises questions about acellular vaccine effectiveness. Prevention of infant pertussis cases is best achieved by immunizing the pregnant mother. Enhanced surveillance and systematic laboratory confirmation of pertussis should be improved in Italy.

Geospatial-temporal distribution of Tegumentary Leishmaniasis in Colombia (2007–2016)

PubMed Central

Herrera, Giovanny; Pradilla, Iván; Vera, Mauricio

2018-01-01

Background Tegumentary Leishmaniasis (TL) is a neglected disease with worldwide distribution and considered a public health problem, especially in Latin America. In Colombia, the governmental epidemiological surveillance system (SIVIGILA) is responsible for collecting information on the presentation of cases of TL from each of the municipalities and departments. In absence of a study compiling and analyzing currently available metadata of TL in Colombia, this study describes the geospatial-temporal distribution of TL and identifies the regions of the country on which prevention measures should be established in order to control the disease. Methodology/Principal findings This is an exploratory descriptive analysis of the distribution of TL in Colombia. Information was collected on new cases of the disease during the years 2007–2016 from the Colombian reporting system (SIVIGILA). Incidence calculations were made based on population estimates by departments and biogeographical regions. Time evolution is shown in biennial maps. A 10-year series was analyzed, showing that the Amazon region is the most affected in terms of incidence, while the Andean region has the highest number of cases with a high variability among the departments that make it up. In those departments where there is a greater reported diversity of vector species, a large number of cases was observed. Conclusions/Significance Transmission dynamics of TL in Colombia in the past 10 years have been variable, with a greater concentration of cases in the central and southern departments. The present study contributes to improve the understanding of the patterns of distribution of TL in Colombia and can be a basis for future studies of impact evaluation of Health policies in the country and the region. PMID:29624582

Impact of climate variability on tropospheric ozone.

PubMed

Grewe, Volker

2007-03-01

A simulation with the climate-chemistry model (CCM) E39/C is presented, which covers both the troposphere and stratosphere dynamics and chemistry during the period 1960 to 1999. Although the CCM, by its nature, is not exactly representing observed day-by-day meteorology, there is an overall model's tendency to correctly reproduce the variability pattern due to an inclusion of realistic external forcings, like observed sea surface temperatures (e.g. El Niño), major volcanic eruption, solar cycle, concentrations of greenhouse gases, and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Additionally, climate-chemistry interactions are included, like the impact of ozone, methane, and other species on radiation and dynamics, and the impact of dynamics on emissions (lightning). However, a number of important feedbacks are not yet included (e.g. feedbacks related to biogenic emissions and emissions due to biomass burning). The results show a good representation of the evolution of the stratospheric ozone layer, including the ozone hole, which plays an important role for the simulation of natural variability of tropospheric ozone. Anthropogenic NO(x) emissions are included with a step-wise linear trend for each sector, but no interannual variability is included. The application of a number of diagnostics (e.g. marked ozone tracers) allows the separation of the impact of various processes/emissions on tropospheric ozone and shows that the simulated Northern Hemisphere tropospheric ozone budget is not only dominated by nitrogen oxide emissions and other ozone pre-cursors, but also by changes of the stratospheric ozone budget and its flux into the troposphere, which tends to reduce the simulated positive trend in tropospheric ozone due to emissions from industry and traffic during the late 80s and early 90s. For tropical regions the variability in ozone is dominated by variability in lightning (related to ENSO) and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (related to Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric dynamics and solar activity). Since tropospheric background chemistry is regarded only, the results are quantitatively limited with respect to derived trends. However, the main results are regarded to be robust. Although the horizontal resolution is rather coarse in comparison to regional models, such kind of simulations provide useful and necessary information on the impact of large-scale processes and inter-annual/decadal variations on regional air quality.

Use of Climatic Information In Regional Water Resources Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claps, P.

Relations between climatic parameters and hydrological variables at the basin scale are investigated, with the aim of evaluating in a parsimonious way physical parameters useful both for a climatic classification of an area and for supporting statistical models of water resources assessment. With reference to the first point, literature methods for distributed evaluation of parameters such as temperature, global and net solar radiation, precipitation, have been considered at the annual scale with the aim of considering the viewpoint of the robust evaluation of parameters based on few basic physical variables of simple determination. Elevation, latitude and average annual number of sunny days have demonstrated to be the essential parameters with respect to the evaluation of climatic indices related to the soil water deficit and to the radiative balance. The latter term was evaluated at the monthly scale and validated (in the `global' term) with measured data. in questo caso riferite al bilancio idrico a scala annuale. Budyko, Thornthwaite and Emberger climatic indices were evaluated on the 10,000 km2 territory of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) based on a 1.1. km grid. They were compared in terms of spatial variability and sensitivity to the variation of the basic variables in humid and semi-arid areas. The use of the climatic index data with respect to statistical parameters of the runoff series in some gauging stations of the region demonstrated the possibility to support regionalisation of the annual runoff using climatic information, with clear distinction of the variability of the coefficient of variation in terms of the humidity-aridity of the basin.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability of Some Chromospheric Emission Lines Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Göker, Ü. D.; Gigolashvili, M. Sh.; Kapanadze, N.

2017-06-01

A study of variations of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the wavelength ranges 121.5 nm-300.5 nm for the period 1981-2009 is presented. We used various data for ultraviolet (UV) spectral lines and international sunspot number (ISSN) from interactive data centers such as SME (NSSDC), UARS (GDAAC), SORCE (LISIRD) and SIDC, respectively. We reduced these data by using the MATLAB software package. In this respect, we revealed negative correlations of intensities of UV (289.5 nm-300.5 nm) spectral lines originating in the solar chromosphere with the ISSN index during the unusually prolonged minimum between the solar activity cycles (SACs) 23 and 24. We also compared our results with the variations of solar activity indices obtained by the ground-based telescopes. Therefore, we found that plage regions decrease while facular areas are increasing in SAC 23. However, the decrease in plage regions is seen in small sunspot groups (SGs), contrary to this, these regions in large SGs are comparable to previous SACs or even larger as is also seen in facular areas. Nevertheless, negative correlations between ISSN and SSI data indicate that these variations are in close connection with the classes of sunspots/SGs, faculae and plage regions. Finally, we applied the time series analysis of spectral lines corresponding to the wavelengths 121.5 nm-300.5 nm and made comparisons with the ISSN data. We found an unexpected increase in the 298.5 nm line for the Fe II ion. The variability of Fe II ion 298.5 nm line is in close connection with the facular areas and plage regions, and the sizes of these solar surface indices play an important role for the SSI variability, as well. So, we compared the connection between the sizes of faculae and plage regions, sunspots/SGs, chemical elements and SSI variability. Our future work will be the theoretical study of this connection and developing of a corresponding model.

Effects of trade openness and market scale on different regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Renqu; Yang, Zisheng

2017-04-01

This paper revisits the relationship between growth, trade openness and market scale. Empirical studies have provided that area develops lopsided problem in China is increasingly serious, while large trade openness and market scale bring about more economic growth. We use a number of data set from province-level’s gross domestic product and socio-economic, as well as statistical methods panel ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimation techniques to explore the effects of trade openness and regional market scale on the three major economic regions. The results indicate: Firstly, the impact of market scale and trade openness on economic growth is found to be positive. Secondly, the overall regional disparity is owing to the trade openness, market scale and macroeconomic policies. Thirdly, midland and western region should take advantage of regional geographical location and resource to expand exports and narrow the regional difference.

Clonal Origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor Strains, Papua New Guinea, 2009–2011

PubMed Central

Collins, Deirdre; Jonduo, Marinjho H.; Rosewell, Alexander; Dutta, Samir R.; Dagina, Rosheila; Ropa, Berry; Siba, Peter M.; Greenhill, Andrew R.

2011-01-01

We used multilocus sequence typing and variable number tandem repeat analysis to determine the clonal origins of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains from an outbreak of cholera that began in 2009 in Papua New Guinea. The epidemic is ongoing, and transmission risk is elevated within the Pacific region. PMID:22099099

Use of USDA forest inventory and analysis data to assess oak tree health in Minnesota

Treesearch

Kathryn W. Kromroy; Jennifer Juzwik; Paul D. Castillo

2003-01-01

As a precursor to a regional assessment for the Upper Midwest, three variables were examined as measures of oak health in Minnesota between 1974 and 1990 using USDA Forest Service Inventory and Analysis data. Mortality was 6 percent in the 1986-1990 inventory based on numbers of dead oaks per total oaks on plots with...

Allozyme variation of Port-Orford-Cedar (Chamaecyparis lawsoniana): implications for genetic conservation

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Kimberly A. Marshall

1991-01-01

Variation at 32 allozyme loci in nine disjunct populations of Part-Orford-cedar (POC) from the California floristic region was measured to estimate the amount and pattern of genetic variability in natural stands. Variation in electrophoretically detectable loci was moderately high, with mean number of alleles per locus = 1.9, 64.9% polymorphic loci, and observed...

[Mental health problems among students of a regional Chilean university].

PubMed

Antúnez, Zayra; Vinet, Eugenia V

2013-02-01

The increase in university population in Chile has also increased the number of students presenting mental health disorders. To determine the frequency of mental health problems and its association with other relevant variables among students of a regional university in Chile. A sample of 484 students aged 18 to 28 years (45% males) were assessed once using a battery of tests designed to detect mental health problems. The instruments used were Derogates SCL-90-R, Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II), Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS-21) and a social-demographic questionnaire. Fifteen percent of the sample presented high levels of mental health symptoms, determined according to the cut-off points of Beck inventories. This symptomatic group, which also showed high levels of stress, was composed mostly of freshmen and women. There was a significant association between symptoms and socio-demographic variables such as living in rural areas, ethnicity and socioeconomic status, a higher need for psychological and psychiatric care and a lower number of extracurricular activities. The knowledge of mental health problems among university students will allow to generate strategies for mental health prevention, promotion and treatment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yust, B.L.

The relationship between fuels used by households in a rural region of Leyte Province, the Philippines, and the variables that can affect the type and amount of fuel used were examined. Data were drawn from interviews conducted in a previous study with 150 female heads of households from 10 villages near Baybay, Leyte. Within a family-ecosystem framework, a multiple regression model was developed to identify predictors of fuel use in the households. Inputs to the system included the following independent variables representing aspects of household environments; (1) natural--geographic location of the village, (2) technical--cook stove and equipment ownership, (3) economic--distancemore » to fuel sources and number of hectares of land owned, and (4) cultural-cooking fuel preference. Two regression equations were developed. The first used as the dependent variable the number of units of each of four specific fuels used in the household in one week: wood, coconut fronds, and coconut shells, and coconut husks with shells. The second used as the dependent variable an aggregate measure, barrel oil equivalent (boe), of the quantity of all fuels used in the household in one week. The households in this study were primarily dependent on biomass fuels gathered by family members; a limited quantity of commercial fuels was used.« less

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Variability of tropical cyclone in high frequent occurrence regions over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yuxing; Huang, Fei; Wang, Faming

2014-06-01

In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones (TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea (the region S), the south Philippine Sea (the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island (the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period (1965-2009), where the frequency of occurrence (FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10-12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4-5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.

Variable developmental delays and characteristic facial features-A novel 7p22.3p22.2 microdeletion syndrome?

PubMed

Yu, Andrea C; Zambrano, Regina M; Cristian, Ingrid; Price, Sue; Bernhard, Birgitta; Zucker, Marc; Venkateswaran, Sunita; McGowan-Jordan, Jean; Armour, Christine M

2017-06-01

Isolated 7p22.3p22.2 deletions are rarely described with only two reports in the literature. Most other reported cases either involve a much larger region of the 7p arm or have an additional copy number variation. Here, we report five patients with overlapping microdeletions at 7p22.3p22.2. The patients presented with variable developmental delays, exhibiting relative weaknesses in expressive language skills and relative strengths in gross, and fine motor skills. The most consistent facial features seen in these patients included a broad nasal root, a prominent forehead a prominent glabella and arched eyebrows. Additional variable features amongst the patients included microcephaly, metopic ridging or craniosynostosis, cleft palate, cardiac defects, and mild hypotonia. Although the patients' deletions varied in size, there was a 0.47 Mb region of overlap which contained 7 OMIM genes: EIP3B, CHST12, LFNG, BRAT1, TTYH3, AMZ1, and GNA12. We propose that monosomy of this region represents a novel microdeletion syndrome. We recommend that individuals with 7p22.3p22.2 deletions should receive a developmental assessment and a thorough cardiac exam, with consideration of an echocardiogram, as part of their initial evaluation. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Regional investigations of soil and overburden analysis and plant uptake of metals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gough, L.P.

1984-01-01

Regional studies on the bioavailability of metals at native and disturbed sites were conducted over the past seven years by the USGS. The work was concentrated in the Fort Union, Powder River, and Green River coal resource regions where measures of extractable metals in soils were found to have limited use in predicting metal levels in plants. Correlations between Cu, Fe, and Zn in plants and extractable (DTPA, EDTA, and oxalate) or total levels in native A- and C-horizons of soil were occasionally significant. A simple linear model is generally not adequate, however, in estimating element uptake by plants. Prediction capabilities were improved when a number of soil chemical and physical parameters were included as independent variables in a stepwise linear multiple regression analysis; however, never more than 54% of the total variability in the data was explained by the equations for these metals. Soil pH was the most important variable relating soil chemistry to plant chemistry. This relation was always positive and apparently a response to soil levels of metal carbonates and not Fe and Mn oxides. Studies that compared the metal uptake by rehabilitation species to extractable (DTPA) metal levels in mice soils produced similar results. ?? 1984 Science and Technology Letters.

Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaufort, Aurélien; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Pella, Hervé; Datry, Thibault; Sauquet, Eric

2018-05-01

Headwater streams represent a substantial proportion of river systems and many of them have intermittent flows due to their upstream position in the network. These intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams have recently seen a marked increase in interest, especially to assess the impact of drying on aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to quantify how discrete (in space and time) field observations of flow intermittence help to extrapolate over time the daily probability of drying (defined at the regional scale). Two empirical models based on linear or logistic regressions have been developed to predict the daily probability of intermittence at the regional scale across France. Explanatory variables were derived from available daily discharge and groundwater-level data of a dense gauging/piezometer network, and models were calibrated using discrete series of field observations of flow intermittence. The robustness of the models was tested using an independent, dense regional dataset of intermittence observations and observations of the year 2017 excluded from the calibration. The resulting models were used to extrapolate the daily regional probability of drying in France: (i) over the period 2011-2017 to identify the regions most affected by flow intermittence; (ii) over the period 1989-2017, using a reduced input dataset, to analyse temporal variability of flow intermittence at the national level. The two empirical regression models performed equally well between 2011 and 2017. The accuracy of predictions depended on the number of continuous gauging/piezometer stations and intermittence observations available to calibrate the regressions. Regions with the highest performance were located in sedimentary plains, where the monitoring network was dense and where the regional probability of drying was the highest. Conversely, the worst performances were obtained in mountainous regions. Finally, temporal projections (1989-2016) suggested the highest probabilities of intermittence (> 35 %) in 1989-1991, 2003 and 2005. A high density of intermittence observations improved the information provided by gauging stations and piezometers to extrapolate the temporal variability of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams.

Reynolds shear stress and heat flux calculations in a fully developed turbulent duct flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antonia, R. A.; Kim, J.

1991-01-01

The use of a modified form of the Van Driest mixing length for a fully developed turbulent channel flow leads to mean velocity and Reynolds stress distributions that are in close agreement with data obtained either from experiments or direct numerical simulations. The calculations are then extended to a nonisothermal flow by assuming a constant turbulent Prandtl number, the value of which depends on the molecular Prandtl number. Calculated distributions of mean temperature and lateral heat flux are in reasonable agreement with the simulations. The extension of the calculations to higher Reynolds numbers provides some idea of the Reynolds number required for scaling on wall variables to apply in the inner region of the flow.

Volume integrals associated with the inhomogeneous Helmholtz equation. Part 1: Ellipsoidal region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. S.; Mura, T.

1983-01-01

Problems of wave phenomena in fields of acoustics, electromagnetics and elasticity are often reduced to an integration of the inhomogeneous Helmholtz equation. Results are presented for volume integrals associated with the Helmholtz operator, nabla(2) to alpha(2), for the case of an ellipsoidal region. By using appropriate Taylor series expansions and multinomial theorem, these volume integrals are obtained in series form for regions r 4' and r r', where r and r' are distances from the origin to the point of observation and source, respectively. Derivatives of these integrals are easily evaluated. When the wave number approaches zero, the results reduce directly to the potentials of variable densities.

Major collapse of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the future and its consequences on tropical cyclones.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menkes, C.; Dutheil, C.; Bador, M.; Lengaigne, M.; Lefèvre, J.; Jourdain, N.; Jullien, S.; Vialard, J.; Peltier, A.

2017-12-01

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global climate models, with trademark biases such as the "double ITCZ" or related cold tongue biases. Such biases decrease our confidence in climate change projections for this region. We first show that WRF atmospheric simulations using a 1°x1° regional configuration capture the SPCZ mean state and interannual variability well over the 1980-2016 period. We then perform climate change experiments by adding the RCP8.5, 2080-2100 CMIP5 multi-model mean boundary anomalies to the present conditions. We find a 4° equatorward shift of the SPCZ west of 170°W, and associated 40% rainfall reduction in the southwestern Pacific. These results strongly contrast with previous studies based on CMIP5 simulations that suggest a much weaker southwestern Pacific drying ( 7%). Regional sensitivity experiments show that this CMIP5 weak response can be tracked to climatological CMIP5 SST biases, which weaken the humidity transport reduction in the south Pacific in the future and result in an underestimated projected drying of the southwest Pacific. Our experiments also point toward a large increase in the future SPCZ variability with increased frequency of zonal SPCZ events. Next we explore the fate of tropical cyclones by downscaling the previous models to 20 km. The seasonal and spatial distribution of TC genesis and occurrence are in good agreement with the observations albeit with weaker than observed annual numbers. Our reference simulation is able to simulate intense category 4 and 5 TCs. In the future climate, we show a drastic decrease in the number of TCs ( 75%), and the disappearance of the most intense (Cat 4-5) cyclones. Additional regional simulations using a completely different set of physical parameterizations yield very similar results for the SPCZ collapse, including the strong decrease of TC numbers ( 63%), underlining the robustness of our results.

Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paltan, Homero; Waliser, Duane; Lim, Wee Ho; Guan, Bin; Yamazaki, Dai; Pant, Raghav; Dadson, Simon

2017-10-01

While emerging regional evidence shows that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can exert strong impacts on local water availability and flooding, their role in shaping global hydrological extremes has not yet been investigated. Here we quantify the relative contribution of ARs variability to both flood hazard and water availability. We find that globally, precipitation from ARs contributes 22% of total global runoff, with a number of regions reaching 50% or more. In areas where their influence is strongest, ARs may increase the occurrence of floods by 80%, while absence of ARs may increase the occurrence of hydrological droughts events by up to 90%. We also find that 300 million people are exposed to additional floods and droughts due the occurrence of ARs. ARs provide a source of hydroclimatic variability whose beneficial or damaging effects depend on the capacity of water resources managers to predict and adapt to them.

Temporary disaster debris management site identification using binomial cluster analysis and GIS.

PubMed

Grzeda, Stanislaw; Mazzuchi, Thomas A; Sarkani, Shahram

2014-04-01

An essential component of disaster planning and preparation is the identification and selection of temporary disaster debris management sites (DMS). However, since DMS identification is a complex process involving numerous variable constraints, many regional, county and municipal jurisdictions initiate this process during the post-disaster response and recovery phases, typically a period of severely stressed resources. Hence, a pre-disaster approach in identifying the most likely sites based on the number of locational constraints would significantly contribute to disaster debris management planning. As disasters vary in their nature, location and extent, an effective approach must facilitate scalability, flexibility and adaptability to variable local requirements, while also being generalisable to other regions and geographical extents. This study demonstrates the use of binomial cluster analysis in potential DMS identification in a case study conducted in Hamilton County, Indiana. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Variability of Root Traits in Spring Wheat Germplasm

PubMed Central

Narayanan, Sruthi; Mohan, Amita; Gill, Kulvinder S.; Prasad, P. V. Vara

2014-01-01

Root traits influence the amount of water and nutrient absorption, and are important for maintaining crop yield under drought conditions. The objectives of this research were to characterize variability of root traits among spring wheat genotypes and determine whether root traits are related to shoot traits (plant height, tiller number per plant, shoot dry weight, and coleoptile length), regions of origin, and market classes. Plants were grown in 150-cm columns for 61 days in a greenhouse under optimal growth conditions. Rooting depth, root dry weight, root: shoot ratio, and shoot traits were determined for 297 genotypes of the germplasm, Cultivated Wheat Collection (CWC). The remaining root traits such as total root length and surface area were measured for a subset of 30 genotypes selected based on rooting depth. Significant genetic variability was observed for root traits among spring wheat genotypes in CWC germplasm or its subset. Genotypes Sonora and Currawa were ranked high, and genotype Vandal was ranked low for most root traits. A positive relationship (R2≥0.35) was found between root and shoot dry weights within the CWC germplasm and between total root surface area and tiller number; total root surface area and shoot dry weight; and total root length and coleoptile length within the subset. No correlations were found between plant height and most root traits within the CWC germplasm or its subset. Region of origin had significant impact on rooting depth in the CWC germplasm. Wheat genotypes collected from Australia, Mediterranean, and west Asia had greater rooting depth than those from south Asia, Latin America, Mexico, and Canada. Soft wheat had greater rooting depth than hard wheat in the CWC germplasm. The genetic variability identified in this research for root traits can be exploited to improve drought tolerance and/or resource capture in wheat. PMID:24945438

Minimizing the Standard Deviation of Spatially Averaged Surface Cross-Sectional Data from the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, Robert; Kim, Hyokyung

2016-01-01

For an airborne or spaceborne radar, the precipitation-induced path attenuation can be estimated from the measurements of the normalized surface cross section, sigma 0, in the presence and absence of precipitation. In one implementation, the mean rain-free estimate and its variability are found from a lookup table (LUT) derived from previously measured data. For the dual-frequency precipitation radar aboard the global precipitation measurement satellite, the nominal table consists of the statistics of the rain-free 0 over a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg latitude-longitude grid using a three-month set of input data. However, a problem with the LUT is an insufficient number of samples in many cells. An alternative table is constructed by a stepwise procedure that begins with the statistics over a 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg grid. If the number of samples at a cell is too few, the area is expanded, cell by cell, choosing at each step that cell that minimizes the variance of the data. The question arises, however, as to whether the selected region corresponds to the smallest variance. To address this question, a second type of variable-averaging grid is constructed using all possible spatial configurations and computing the variance of the data within each region. Comparisons of the standard deviations for the fixed and variable-averaged grids are given as a function of incidence angle and surface type using a three-month set of data. The advantage of variable spatial averaging is that the average standard deviation can be reduced relative to the fixed grid while satisfying the minimum sample requirement.

Musculoskeletal networks reveal topological disparity in mammalian neck evolution.

PubMed

Arnold, Patrick; Esteve-Altava, Borja; Fischer, Martin S

2017-12-13

The increase in locomotor and metabolic performance during mammalian evolution was accompanied by the limitation of the number of cervical vertebrae to only seven. In turn, nuchal muscles underwent a reorganization while forelimb muscles expanded into the neck region. As variation in the cervical spine is low, the variation in the arrangement of the neck muscles and their attachment sites (i.e., the variability of the neck's musculoskeletal organization) is thus proposed to be an important source of neck disparity across mammals. Anatomical network analysis provides a novel framework to study the organization of the anatomical arrangement, or connectivity pattern, of the bones and muscles that constitute the mammalian neck in an evolutionary context. Neck organization in mammals is characterized by a combination of conserved and highly variable network properties. We uncovered a conserved regionalization of the musculoskeletal organization of the neck into upper, mid and lower cervical modules. In contrast, there is a varying degree of complexity or specialization and of the integration of the pectoral elements. The musculoskeletal organization of the monotreme neck is distinctively different from that of therian mammals. Our findings reveal that the limited number of vertebrae in the mammalian neck does not result in a low musculoskeletal disparity when examined in an evolutionary context. However, this disparity evolved late in mammalian history in parallel with the radiation of certain lineages (e.g., cetartiodactyls, xenarthrans). Disparity is further facilitated by the enhanced incorporation of forelimb muscles into the neck and their variability in attachment sites.

Identification of ANKRD11 and ZNF778 as candidate genes for autism and variable cognitive impairment in the novel 16q24.3 microdeletion syndrome

PubMed Central

Willemsen, Marjolein H; Fernandez, Bridget A; Bacino, Carlos A; Gerkes, Erica; de Brouwer, Arjan PM; Pfundt, Rolph; Sikkema-Raddatz, Birgit; Scherer, Stephen W; Marshall, Christian R; Potocki, Lorraine; van Bokhoven, Hans; Kleefstra, Tjitske

2010-01-01

The clinical use of array comparative genomic hybridization in the evaluation of patients with multiple congenital anomalies and/or mental retardation has recently led to the discovery of a number of novel microdeletion and microduplication syndromes. We present four male patients with overlapping molecularly defined de novo microdeletions of 16q24.3. The clinical features observed in these patients include facial dysmorphisms comprising prominent forehead, large ears, smooth philtrum, pointed chin and wide mouth, variable cognitive impairment, autism spectrum disorder, structural anomalies of the brain, seizures and neonatal thrombocytopenia. Although deletions vary in size, the common region of overlap is only 90 kb and comprises two known genes, Ankyrin Repeat Domain 11 (ANKRD11) (MIM 611192) and Zinc Finger 778 (ZNF778), and is located approximately 10 kb distally to Cadherin 15 (CDH15) (MIM 114019). This region is not found as a copy number variation in controls. We propose that these patients represent a novel and distinctive microdeletion syndrome, characterized by autism spectrum disorder, variable cognitive impairment, facial dysmorphisms and brain abnormalities. We suggest that haploinsufficiency of ANKRD11 and/or ZNF778 contribute to this phenotype and speculate that further investigation of non-deletion patients who have features suggestive of this 16q24.3 microdeletion syndrome might uncover other mutations in one or both of these genes. PMID:19920853

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production.

PubMed

Fuentes, Mariana M P B; Delean, Steven; Grayson, Jillian; Lavender, Sally; Logan, Murray; Marsh, Helene

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales.

Somatic diversification in the heavy chain variable region genes expressed by human autoantibodies bearing a lupus-associated nephritogenic anti-DNA idiotype

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demaison, C.; Chastagner, P.; Theze, J.

1994-01-18

Monoclonal anti-DNA antibodies bearing a lupus nephritis-associated idiotype were derived from five patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Genes encoding their heavy (H)-chain variable (V[sub H]) regions were cloned and sequenced. When compared with their closest V[sub h] germ-line gene relatives, these sequences exhibit a number of silent (S) and replacement (R) substitutions. The ratios of R/S mutations were much higher in the complementarity-determining regions (CDRs) of the antibodies than in the framework regions. Molecular amplification of genomic V[sub H] genes and Southern hybridization with somatic CDR2-specific oligonucleotide probes showed that the configuration of the V[sub H] genes corresponding tomore » V[sub H] sequences in the nephritogenic antibodies is not present in the patient's own germ-line DNA, implying that the B-cell clones underwent somatic mutation in vivo. These findings, together with the characteristics of the diversity and junctional gene elements utilized to form the antibody, indicate that these autoantibodies have been driven through somatic selection processes reminiscent of those that govern antibody responses triggered by exogenous stimuli.« less

Numerical simulation of the 6 day wave effects on the ionosphere: Dynamo modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Quan; Wang, Wenbing; Yue, Jia; Liu, Hanli; Chang, Loren C.; Zhang, Shaodong; Burns, Alan; Du, Jian

2016-10-01

The Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) is used to theoretically study the 6 day wave effects on the ionosphere. By introducing a 6 day perturbation with zonal wave number 1 at the model lower boundary, the TIME-GCM reasonably reproduces the 6 day wave in temperature and horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region during the vernal equinox. The E region wind dynamo exhibits a prominent 6 day oscillation that is directly modulated by the 6 day wave. Meanwhile, significant local time variability (diurnal and semidiurnal) is also seen in wind dynamo as a result of altered tides due to the nonlinear interaction between the 6 day wave and migrating tides. More importantly, the perturbations in the E region neutral winds (both the 6 day oscillation and tidal-induced short-term variability) modulate the polarization electric fields, thus leading to the perturbations in vertical ion drifts and ionospheric F2 region peak electron density (NmF2). Our modeling work shows that the 6 day wave couples with the ionosphere via both the direct neutral wind modulation and the interaction with atmospheric tides.

Analysis of Copy Number Variation in the Abp Gene Regions of Two House Mouse Subspecies Suggests Divergence during the Gene Family Expansions

PubMed Central

Pezer, Željka; Chung, Amanda G.; Karn, Robert C.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Androgen-binding protein (Abp) gene region of the mouse genome contains 64 genes, some encoding pheromones that influence assortative mating between mice from different subspecies. Using CNVnator and quantitative PCR, we explored copy number variation in this gene family in natural populations of Mus musculus domesticus (Mmd) and Mus musculus musculus (Mmm), two subspecies of house mice that form a narrow hybrid zone in Central Europe. We found that copy number variation in the center of the Abp gene region is very common in wild Mmd, primarily representing the presence/absence of the final duplications described for the mouse genome. Clustering of Mmd individuals based on this variation did not reflect their geographical origin, suggesting no population divergence in the Abp gene cluster. However, copy number variation patterns differ substantially between Mmd and other mouse taxa. Large blocks of Abp genes are absent in Mmm, Mus musculus castaneus and an outgroup, Mus spretus, although with differences in variation and breakpoint locations. Our analysis calls into question the reliance on a reference genome for interpreting the detailed organization of genes in taxa more distant from the Mmd reference genome. The polymorphic nature of the gene family expansion in all four taxa suggests that the number of Abp genes, especially in the central gene region, is not critical to the survival and reproduction of the mouse. However, Abp haplotypes of variable length may serve as a source of raw genetic material for new signals influencing reproductive communication and thus speciation of mice. PMID:28575204

Semiconductor radiation detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patt, Bradley E.; Iwanczyk, Jan S.; Tull, Carolyn R.

A semiconductor radiation detector is provided to detect x-ray and light photons. The entrance electrode is segmented by using variable doping concentrations. Further, the entrance electrode is physically segmented by inserting n+ regions between p+ regions. The p+ regions and the n+ regions are individually biased. The detector elements can be used in an array, and the p+ regions and the n+ regions can be biased by applying potential at a single point. The back side of the semiconductor radiation detector has an n+ anode for collecting created charges and a number of p+ cathodes. Biased n+ inserts can bemore » placed between the p+ cathodes, and an internal resistor divider can be used to bias the n+ inserts as well as the p+ cathodes. A polysilicon spiral guard can be implemented surrounding the active area of the entrance electrode or surrounding an array of entrance electrodes.« less

(In)Consistent estimates of changes in relative precipitation in an European domain over the last 350 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bothe, Oliver; Wagner, Sebastian; Zorita, Eduardo

2015-04-01

How did regional precipitation change in past centuries? We have potentially three sources of information to answer this question: There are, especially for Europe, a number of long records of local station precipitation; documentary records and natural archives of past environmental variability serve as proxy records for empirical reconstructions; in addition, simulations with coupled climate models or Earth System Models provide estimates on the spatial structure of precipitation variability. However, instrumental records rarely extend back to the 18th century, reconstructions include large uncertainties, and simulation skill is often still unsatisfactory for precipitation. Thus, we can only seek to answer to which extent the three sources provide a consistent picture of past regional precipitation changes. This presentation describes the (lack of) consistency in describing changes of the distributional properties of seasonal precipitation between the different data sources. We concentrate on England and Wales since there are two recent reconstructions and a long observation based record available for this domain. The season of interest is an extended spring (March, April, May, June, July, MAMJJ) over the past 350 years. The main simulated data stem from a regional simulation for the European domain with CCLM driven at its lateral boundaries with conditions provided by a MPI-ESM COSMOS simulation for the last millennium using a high-amplitude solar forcing. A number of simulations for the past 1000 years from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III provide additional information. We fit a Weibull distribution to the available data sets following the approach for calculating standardized precipitation indices. We do so over 51 year moving windows to assess the consistency of changes in the distributional properties. Changes in the percentiles for severe (and extreme) dry or wet conditions and in the Weibull standard deviations of precipitation estimates are generally not consistent among the different data sets. Only few common signals are evident. Even the relatively strong exogenous forcing history of the late 18th and early 19th century appears to have only small effects on the precipitation distributions. The reconstructions differ systematically from the long instrumental data in displaying much stronger variability compared to the observations over their common period. Distributional properties for both data sets show to some extent opposite evolutions. The reconstructions do not reliably represent the distributions in specific periods but rather reflect low-frequency changes in the mean plus a certain amount of noise. Moreover, also multi-model simulations do not agree on the changes over this period. The lack of consistent simulated relations under purely naturally forced and internal variability on multi-decadal time-scales therefore questions our ability to conclude on dynamical inferences about regional climate variability in the PMIP3 ensemble and, in turn, in climate simulations in general. The potentially opposite evolution of reconstructions and instrumental data for the chosen domain further hampers reconciling available information about past regional precipitation variability in England and Wales. However, we find some possibly surprising but encouraging agreement between the observed data and the regional simulation.

Vulnerability to Substance Abuse and the Risk of Suicide in Students of Region 12 of Islamic Azad University

PubMed Central

Monirpoor, Nader; Khoosfi, Helen; Gholamy Zarch, Morteza; Tamaddonfard, Mohsen; Tabatabaei Mir, Seyed Farzad; Mohammad Alipour, Maryam; Karimi, Yasamin

2014-01-01

Background: Substance abuse prevalence and the number of suicides among university students is less than public population; however the sensitivity of society regarding the occurrence of such damages among students puts special emphasis on appraising these variables. More than 30% of Iranian students study in Islamic Azad University. Objectives: The current research aimed to appraise the vulnerability of substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of Islamic Azad University. Patients and Methods: In the current study, 1053 students (606 boys and 447 girls) with the average age of 22.55 years were selected through stratified sampling from Karaj, Takestan, Qazvin and Qom branches of Islamic Azad University. In order to assess the variables, Mental Health Worksheet of Central Counseling Office of the Ministry Science, Research and Technology was utilized. Results: Average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum scores in substance abuse vulnerability of the students in region 12 were measured as 36.28, 14.68, 11.22 and 92.87; and the same for risk of suicide were 31.29, 15.61, 7.93 and 96.30, respectively. Students in Qom branch were significantly less vulnerable to substance abuse and less exposed to the risk of suicide than their peers in Karaj, Qazvin and Takestan branches. Conclusions: Less significant possibility of substance abuse and risk of suicide in students of Qom branch in comparison with other branches could be due to numerous variables particularly their religious attitudes. Nevertheless the average of these variables among the students of region 12 were higher than the reported scores of their peers in the state universities which reflects the serious need for precise assessments and providing preventive services and mental health interventions. PMID:25032157

Vulnerability to substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of islamic azad university.

PubMed

Monirpoor, Nader; Khoosfi, Helen; Gholamy Zarch, Morteza; Tamaddonfard, Mohsen; Tabatabaei Mir, Seyed Farzad; Mohammad Alipour, Maryam; Karimi, Yasamin

2014-06-01

Substance abuse prevalence and the number of suicides among university students is less than public population; however the sensitivity of society regarding the occurrence of such damages among students puts special emphasis on appraising these variables. More than 30% of Iranian students study in Islamic Azad University. The current research aimed to appraise the vulnerability of substance abuse and the risk of suicide in students of region 12 of Islamic Azad University. In the current study, 1053 students (606 boys and 447 girls) with the average age of 22.55 years were selected through stratified sampling from Karaj, Takestan, Qazvin and Qom branches of Islamic Azad University. In order to assess the variables, Mental Health Worksheet of Central Counseling Office of the Ministry Science, Research and Technology was utilized. Average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum scores in substance abuse vulnerability of the students in region 12 were measured as 36.28, 14.68, 11.22 and 92.87; and the same for risk of suicide were 31.29, 15.61, 7.93 and 96.30, respectively. Students in Qom branch were significantly less vulnerable to substance abuse and less exposed to the risk of suicide than their peers in Karaj, Qazvin and Takestan branches. Less significant possibility of substance abuse and risk of suicide in students of Qom branch in comparison with other branches could be due to numerous variables particularly their religious attitudes. Nevertheless the average of these variables among the students of region 12 were higher than the reported scores of their peers in the state universities which reflects the serious need for precise assessments and providing preventive services and mental health interventions.

Application of Trait Anger and Anger Expression Styles Scale New Modelling on University Students from Various Social and Cultural Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arslan, Fethi

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the differences in anger traits of university students and teacher candidates studying in various social and cultural regions, of Batman and Denizli, Turkey. Modelling anger and anger expression style scale according to some variables such as age, gender, education level, number of siblings, parents'…

Relaxation of an unsteady turbulent boundary layer on a flat plate in an expansion tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gurta, R. N.; Trimpi, R. L.

1974-01-01

An analysis is presented for the relaxation of a turbulent boundary layer on a semi-infinite flat plate after passage of a shock wave and a trailing driver gas-driven gas interface. The problem has special application to expansion-tube flows. The flow-governing equations have been transformed into the Crocco variables, and a time-similar solution is presented in terms of the dimensionless distance-time variable alpha and the dimensionless velocity variable beta. An eddy-viscosity model, similar to that of time-steady boundary layers, is applied to the inner and outer regions of the boundary layer. A turbulent Prandtl number equal to the molecular Prandtl number is used to relate the turbulent heat flux to the eddy viscosity. The numerical results, obtained by using the Gauss-Seidel line-relaxation method, indicate that a fully turbulent boundary layer relaxes faster to the final steady-state values of heat transfer and skin friction than a laminar boundary layer. The results also give a fairly good estimate of the local skin friction and heat transfer for near steady-flow conditions.

Independent variable complexity for regional regression of the flow duration curve in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, Geoffrey; Skupin, André; Hope, Allen

2016-04-01

The flow duration curve (FDC) is one of the most widely used tools to quantify streamflow. Its percentile flows are often required for water resource applications, but these values must be predicted for ungauged basins with insufficient or no streamflow data. Regional regression is a commonly used approach for predicting percentile flows that involves identifying hydrologic regions and calibrating regression models to each region. The independent variables used to describe the physiographic and climatic setting of the basins are a critical component of regional regression, yet few studies have investigated their effect on resulting predictions. In this study, the complexity of the independent variables needed for regional regression is investigated. Different levels of variable complexity are applied for a regional regression consisting of 918 basins in the US. Both the hydrologic regions and regression models are determined according to the different sets of variables, and the accuracy of resulting predictions is assessed. The different sets of variables include (1) a simple set of three variables strongly tied to the FDC (mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index), (2) a traditional set of variables describing the average physiographic and climatic conditions of the basins, and (3) a more complex set of variables extending the traditional variables to include statistics describing the distribution of physiographic data and temporal components of climatic data. The latter set of variables is not typically used in regional regression, and is evaluated for its potential to predict percentile flows. The simplest set of only three variables performed similarly to the other more complex sets of variables. Traditional variables used to describe climate, topography, and soil offered little more to the predictions, and the experimental set of variables describing the distribution of basin data in more detail did not improve predictions. These results are largely reflective of cross-correlation existing in hydrologic datasets, and highlight the limited predictive power of many traditionally used variables for regional regression. A parsimonious approach including fewer variables chosen based on their connection to streamflow may be more efficient than a data mining approach including many different variables. Future regional regression studies may benefit from having a hydrologic rationale for including different variables and attempting to create new variables related to streamflow.

Active PHO5 chromatin encompasses variable numbers of nucleosomes at individual promoters.

PubMed

Jessen, Walter J; Hoose, Scott A; Kilgore, Jessica A; Kladde, Michael P

2006-03-01

Transcriptional activation is often associated with chromatin remodeling. However, little is known about the dynamics of remodeling of nucleosome arrays in vivo. Upon induction of Saccharomyces cerevisiae PHO5, a novel kinetic assay of DNA methyltransferase accessibility showed that nucleosomes adjacent to the histone-free upstream activating sequence (UASp1) are disrupted earlier and at higher frequency in the cell population than are those more distal. Individually cloned molecules, each representing the chromatin state of a full promoter from a single cell, revealed multiple promoter classes with either no remodeling or variable numbers of disrupted nucleosomes. Individual promoters in the remodeled fraction were highly enriched for contiguous blocks of disrupted nucleosomes, the majority of which overlapped the UAS region. These results support a probabilistic model in which chromatin remodeling at PHO5 spreads from sites of transactivator association with DNA and attenuates with distance.

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

Involvement of the major histocompatibility complex region in the genetic regulation of circulating CD8 T-cell numbers in humans.

PubMed

Cruz, E; Vieira, J; Gonçalves, R; Alves, H; Almeida, S; Rodrigues, P; Lacerda, R; Porto, G

2004-07-01

Variability in T-lymphocyte numbers is partially explained by a genetic regulation. From studies in animal models, it is known that the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) is involved in this regulation. In humans, this has not been shown yet. The objective of the present study was to test the hypothesis that genes in the MHC region influence the regulation of T-lymphocyte numbers. Two approaches were used. Association studies between T-cell counts (CD4(+) and CD8(+)) or total lymphocyte counts and HLA class I alleles (A and B) or mutations in the HFE (C282Y and H63D), the hemochromatosis gene, in an unrelated population (n = 264). A second approach was a sibpair correlation analysis of the same T-cell counts in relation to HLA-HFE haplotypes in subjects belonging to 48 hemochromatosis families (n = 456 sibpairs). In the normal population, results showed a strong statistically significant association of the HLA-A*01 with high numbers of CD8(+) T cells and a less powerful association with the HLA-A*24 with low numbers of CD8(+) T cells. Sibpair correlations revealed the most significant correlation for CD8(+) T-cell numbers for sibpairs with HLA-HFE-identical haplotypes. This was not observed for CD4(+) T cells. These results show that the MHC region is involved in the genetic regulation of CD8(+) T-cell numbers in humans. Identification of genes responsible for this control may have important biological and clinical implications.

Regional estimation of extreme suspended sediment concentrations using watershed characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; St-Hilaire, André; Poulin, Jimmy

2010-01-01

SummaryThe number of stations monitoring daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) has been decreasing since the 1980s in North America while suspended sediment is considered as a key variable for water quality. The objective of this study is to test the feasibility of regionalising extreme SSC, i.e. estimating SSC extremes values for ungauged basins. Annual maximum SSC for 72 rivers in Canada and USA were modelled with probability distributions in order to estimate quantiles corresponding to different return periods. Regionalisation techniques, originally developed for flood prediction in ungauged basins, were tested using the climatic, topographic, land cover and soils attributes of the watersheds. Two approaches were compared, using either physiographic characteristics or seasonality of extreme SSC to delineate the regions. Multiple regression models to estimate SSC quantiles as a function of watershed characteristics were built in each region, and compared to a global model including all sites. Regional estimates of SSC quantiles were compared with the local values. Results show that regional estimation of extreme SSC is more efficient than a global regression model including all sites. Groups/regions of stations have been identified, using either the watershed characteristics or the seasonality of occurrence for extreme SSC values providing a method to better describe the extreme events of SSC. The most important variables for predicting extreme SSC are the percentage of clay in the soils, precipitation intensity and forest cover.

Amphibian Diversity and Threatened Species in a Severely Transformed Neotropical Region in Mexico

PubMed Central

Meza-Parral, Yocoyani; Pineda, Eduardo

2015-01-01

Many regions around the world concentrate a large number of highly endangered species that have very restricted distributions. The mountainous region of central Veracruz, Mexico, is considered a priority area for amphibian conservation because of its high level of endemism and the number of threatened species. The original tropical montane cloud forest in the region has been dramatically reduced and fragmented and is now mainly confined to ravines and hillsides. We evaluated the current situation of amphibian diversity in the cloud forest fragments of this region by analyzing species richness and abundance, comparing assemblage structure and species composition, examining the distribution and abundance of threatened species, and identifying the local and landscape variables associated with the observed amphibian diversity. From June to October 2012 we sampled ten forest fragments, investing 944 person-hours of sampling effort. A total of 895 amphibians belonging to 16 species were recorded. Notable differences in species richness, abundance, and assemblage structure between forest fragments were observed. Species composition between pairs of fragments differed by an average of 53%, with the majority (58%) resulting from species replacement and the rest (42%) explained by differences in species richness. Half of the species detected are under threat of extinction according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and although their distribution and abundance varied markedly, there were also ubiquitous and abundant species, along with rare species of restricted distribution. The evident heterogeneity of the ten study sites indicates that to conserve amphibians in a mountainous region such as this one it is necessary to protect groups of fragments which represent the variability of the system. Both individually and together cloud forest fragments are very important to conservation because each remnant is inhabited by several threatened species, some of them at imminent risk of extinction. PMID:25799369

Estimating the effect of selected predictors on agricultural confined-space hazard perceptions of Utah farm owner/operators.

PubMed

Pate, M L; Dai, X

2014-04-01

The purpose of this study was to assess how selected variables affect the confined-space hazard perceptions of farmers in Utah. A confined space was defined as "any space found in an agricultural workplace that was not designed or intended as a regular workstation, has limited or restricted means of entry or exit, and contains potential physical and toxic hazards to workers who intentionally or unintentionally enter the space" (proposed by NCERA-197, 18 May 2011, draft copy). A total of 303 out of 327 farm owner/operators provided complete surveys that were used in the analysis. The state of Utah was grouped into five regions in this study: central, east, northeast, northwest, and southwest. Grain and dairy production comprised 48.7% of the operations responding to the survey. The general linear modeling (GLM) procedure in SAS 9.3 was used to select the models on hazard perception scores for the five studied regions. Interested predictors included response type, production type, safety planning, and injury concerns. Animal production operations had the highest average number of confined spaces (micro = 4, SD = 2.7). Regionally, the northwest region had the highest average number of confined spaces (micro = 4, SD = 2.5). The variables contributing most to confined-space hazard perceptions were injury and death concerns while working alone in confined spaces. Three factors were generated using principle factor analysis (PFA) with orthogonal varimax rotation. Results suggested that factors affect hazard perceptions differently by region. We conclude that outreach and educational efforts to change safety behaviors regarding confined-space hazards should be strategically targeted for each region based on predicting factors. The result can assist agricultural safety and health professionals in targeting agricultural producers' social networks to address human factors such as worker attitudes and/or lack of skills or knowledge that effect hazard perceptions of confined spaces in agriculture.

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Modelling municipal solid waste generation: a review.

PubMed

Beigl, Peter; Lebersorger, Sandra; Salhofer, Stefan

2008-01-01

The objective of this paper is to review previously published models of municipal solid waste generation and to propose an implementation guideline which will provide a compromise between information gain and cost-efficient model development. The 45 modelling approaches identified in a systematic literature review aim at explaining or estimating the present or future waste generation using economic, socio-demographic or management-orientated data. A classification was developed in order to categorise these highly heterogeneous models according to the following criteria--the regional scale, the modelled waste streams, the hypothesised independent variables and the modelling method. A procedural practice guideline was derived from a discussion of the underlying models in order to propose beneficial design options concerning regional sampling (i.e., number and size of observed areas), waste stream definition and investigation, selection of independent variables and model validation procedures. The practical application of the findings was demonstrated with two case studies performed on different regional scales, i.e., on a household and on a city level. The findings of this review are finally summarised in the form of a relevance tree for methodology selection.

Conformational Flexibility of Human Casein Kinase Catalytic Subunit Explored by Metadynamics

PubMed Central

Gouron, Aurélie; Milet, Anne; Jamet, Helene

2014-01-01

Casein kinase CK2 is an essential enzyme in higher organisms, catalyzing the transfer of the γ phosphate from ATP to serine and threonine residues on protein substrates. In a number of animal tumors, CK2 activity has been shown to escape normal cellular control, making it a potential target for cancer therapy. Several crystal structures of human CK2 have been published with different conformations for the CK2α catalytic subunit. This variability reflects a high flexibility for two regions of CK2α: the interdomain hinge region, and the glycine-rich loop (p-loop). Here, we present a computational study simulating the equilibrium between three conformations involving these regions. Simulations were performed using well-tempered metadynamics combined with a path collective variables approach. This provides a reference pathway describing the conformational changes being studied, based on analysis of free energy surfaces. The free energies of the three conformations were found to be close and the paths proposed had low activation barriers. Our results indicate that these conformations can exist in water. This information should be useful when designing inhibitors specific to one conformation. PMID:24606937

23 Years of Cloud Statistics Using HIRS Over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chedzey, H. C.; Menzel, W. P.; Lynch, M. J.; McGann, B. T.

2004-05-01

Clouds are an integral factor in the Earth's water and radiation budgets. Observations and improvements to the accuracy of measurements of cloud properties are crucial in supporting global climate change studies. Regional studies are also of interest and analysis of regional climate variability provides an insight into local weather systems. HIRS is the High-Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder aboard polar orbiting satellites operated by NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration). An archive of HIRS data obtained between 1979 (NOAA-5) through to 2001 (NOAA-16) was made available by CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The data is obtained from near nadir and frequencies of observations are converted into percentages based on total number of observations for each 1 by 1 degree cell. An assessment of cloud frequency percentages for a region including areas of the Indian Ocean and Australia (0\\deg - 60\\deg S; 80\\deg E - 170\\deg E) will be presented. Climate variability and possible associations with future work to be conducted into cloud frequency and rainfall of North West Cloud Bands using MODIS data will also be covered.

A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2015-04-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches have comparable performances. Moreover, as expected, regional estimates are much more reliable than the at-site estimates. If the scenario is heterogeneous, the performances of the regional models depend on the pattern of heterogeneity; in general, however, the spatially-smooth regional approach performs better than the others, and its performances improve for increasing record lengths. For heterogeneous scenarios, the at-site estimates appear to be comparably more efficient than in the homogeneous case, and in general less biased than the regional estimates.

Variability of Massive Young Stellar Objects in Cygnus-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Nancy H.; Hora, J. L.; Smith, H. A.

2013-01-01

Young stellar objects (YSOs) are stars in the process of formation. Several recent investigations have shown a high rate of photometric variability in YSOs at near- and mid-infrared wavelengths. Theoretical models for the formation of massive stars (1-10 solar masses) remain highly idealized, and little is known about the mechanisms that produce the variability. An ongoing Spitzer Space Telescope program is studying massive star formation in the Cygnus-X region. In conjunction with the Spitzer observations, we have conducted a ground-based near-infrared observing program of the Cygnus-X DR21 field using PAIRITEL, the automated infrared telescope at Whipple Observatory. Using the Stetson index for variability, we identified variable objects and a number of variable YSOs in our time-series PAIRITEL data of DR21. We have searched for periodicity among our variable objects using the Lomb-Scargle algorithm, and identified periodic variable objects with an average period of 8.07 days. Characterization of these variable and periodic objects will help constrain models of star formation present. This work is supported in part by the NSF REU and DOD ASSURE programs under NSF grant no. 0754568 and by the Smithsonian Institution.

Individual differences and time-varying features of modular brain architecture.

PubMed

Liao, Xuhong; Cao, Miao; Xia, Mingrui; He, Yong

2017-05-15

Recent studies have suggested that human brain functional networks are topologically organized into functionally specialized but inter-connected modules to facilitate efficient information processing and highly flexible cognitive function. However, these studies have mainly focused on group-level network modularity analyses using "static" functional connectivity approaches. How these extraordinary modular brain structures vary across individuals and spontaneously reconfigure over time remain largely unknown. Here, we employed multiband resting-state functional MRI data (N=105) from the Human Connectome Project and a graph-based modularity analysis to systematically investigate individual variability and dynamic properties in modular brain networks. We showed that the modular structures of brain networks dramatically vary across individuals, with higher modular variability primarily in the association cortex (e.g., fronto-parietal and attention systems) and lower variability in the primary systems. Moreover, brain regions spontaneously changed their module affiliations on a temporal scale of seconds, which cannot be simply attributable to head motion and sampling error. Interestingly, the spatial pattern of intra-subject dynamic modular variability largely overlapped with that of inter-subject modular variability, both of which were highly reproducible across repeated scanning sessions. Finally, the regions with remarkable individual/temporal modular variability were closely associated with network connectors and the number of cognitive components, suggesting a potential contribution to information integration and flexible cognitive function. Collectively, our findings highlight individual modular variability and the notable dynamic characteristics in large-scale brain networks, which enhance our understanding of the neural substrates underlying individual differences in a variety of cognition and behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effective normalization for copy number variation detection from whole genome sequencing.

PubMed

Janevski, Angel; Varadan, Vinay; Kamalakaran, Sitharthan; Banerjee, Nilanjana; Dimitrova, Nevenka

2012-01-01

Whole genome sequencing enables a high resolution view of the human genome and provides unique insights into genome structure at an unprecedented scale. There have been a number of tools to infer copy number variation in the genome. These tools, while validated, also include a number of parameters that are configurable to genome data being analyzed. These algorithms allow for normalization to account for individual and population-specific effects on individual genome CNV estimates but the impact of these changes on the estimated CNVs is not well characterized. We evaluate in detail the effect of normalization methodologies in two CNV algorithms FREEC and CNV-seq using whole genome sequencing data from 8 individuals spanning four populations. We apply FREEC and CNV-seq to a sequencing data set consisting of 8 genomes. We use multiple configurations corresponding to different read-count normalization methodologies in FREEC, and statistically characterize the concordance of the CNV calls between FREEC configurations and the analogous output from CNV-seq. The normalization methodologies evaluated in FREEC are: GC content, mappability and control genome. We further stratify the concordance analysis within genic, non-genic, and a collection of validated variant regions. The GC content normalization methodology generates the highest number of altered copy number regions. Both mappability and control genome normalization reduce the total number and length of copy number regions. Mappability normalization yields Jaccard indices in the 0.07 - 0.3 range, whereas using a control genome normalization yields Jaccard index values around 0.4 with normalization based on GC content. The most critical impact of using mappability as a normalization factor is substantial reduction of deletion CNV calls. The output of another method based on control genome normalization, CNV-seq, resulted in comparable CNV call profiles, and substantial agreement in variable gene and CNV region calls. Choice of read-count normalization methodology has a substantial effect on CNV calls and the use of genomic mappability or an appropriately chosen control genome can optimize the output of CNV analysis.

CCL3L1 copy number and susceptibility to malaria

PubMed Central

Carpenter, Danielle; Färnert, Anna; Rooth, Ingegerd; Armour, John A.L.; Shaw, Marie-Anne

2012-01-01

Copy number variation can contribute to the variation observed in susceptibility to complex diseases. Here we present the first study to investigate copy number variation of the chemokine gene CCL3L1 with susceptibility to malaria. We present a family-based genetic analysis of a Tanzanian population (n = 922), using parasite load, mean number of clinical infections of malaria and haemoglobin levels as phenotypes. Copy number of CCL3L1 was measured using the paralogue ratio test (PRT) and the dataset exhibited copy numbers ranging between 1 and 10 copies per diploid genome (pdg). Association between copy number and phenotypes was assessed. Furthermore, we were able to identify copy number haplotypes in some families, using microsatellites within the copy variable region, for transmission disequilibrium testing. We identified a high level of copy number haplotype diversity and find some evidence for an association of low CCL3L1 copy number with protection from anaemia. PMID:22484763

CCL3L1 copy number and susceptibility to malaria.

PubMed

Carpenter, Danielle; Färnert, Anna; Rooth, Ingegerd; Armour, John A L; Shaw, Marie-Anne

2012-07-01

Copy number variation can contribute to the variation observed in susceptibility to complex diseases. Here we present the first study to investigate copy number variation of the chemokine gene CCL3L1 with susceptibility to malaria. We present a family-based genetic analysis of a Tanzanian population (n=922), using parasite load, mean number of clinical infections of malaria and haemoglobin levels as phenotypes. Copy number of CCL3L1 was measured using the paralogue ratio test (PRT) and the dataset exhibited copy numbers ranging between 1 and 10 copies per diploid genome (pdg). Association between copy number and phenotypes was assessed. Furthermore, we were able to identify copy number haplotypes in some families, using microsatellites within the copy variable region, for transmission disequilibrium testing. We identified a high level of copy number haplotype diversity and find some evidence for an association of low CCL3L1 copy number with protection from anaemia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of nonreferral outpatient co-payment on medical care utilization and expenditures in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chen, Li-Chia; Schafheutle, Ellen I; Noyce, Peter R

2009-09-01

Taiwan's National Health Insurance's (NHI) generous coverage and patients' freedom to access different tiers of medical facilities have resulted in accelerating outpatient care utilization and costs. To deter nonessential visits and encourage initial contact in primary care (physician clinics), a differential co-payment was introduced on 15th July 2005. Under this, patients pay more for outpatient consultations at "higher tiers" of medical facilities (local community hospitals, regional hospitals, medical centers), particularly if accessed without referral. This study explored the impact of this policy on outpatient medical activities and expenditures, different co-payment groups, and tiers of medical facilities. A segmented time-series analysis on regional weekly outpatient medical claims (January 2004 to July 2006) was conducted. Outcome variables (number of visits, number of outpatients, total cost of outpatient care) and variables for cost structure were stratified by tiers of medical facilities and co-payment groups. Analysis used the auto-regressive integrated moving-average model in STATA 9.0. The overall number of outpatient visits significantly decreased after policy implementation due to a reduction in the number of patients using outpatient facilities, but total costs of care remained unchanged. The policy had its greatest impact on the number of visits to regional and local community hospitals but had no influence on those to the medical centers. Medical utilization in physician clinics decreased due to an audit of reimbursement declarations. Overall, the policy failed to encourage referrals from primary care to higher tiers because there was no obvious shifting of medical utilization and costs reversely. Differential co-payment policy decreased total medication utilization but not costs to NHI. The results suggest that the increased level of co-payment charge and the strategy of a single cost-sharing policy are not sufficient to promote referrals within the system. To achieve an effective co-payment policy, further research is needed to explore how patients' out-of-pocket payment affects medical utilization and which forces (not susceptible to co-payment) act in tertiary facilities.

High school science enrollment of black students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goggins, Ellen O.; Lindbeck, Joy S.

How can the high school science enrollment of black students be increased? School and home counseling and classroom procedures could benefit from variables identified as predictors of science enrollment. The problem in this study was to identify a set of variables which characterize science course enrollment by black secondary students. The population consisted of a subsample of 3963 black high school seniors from The High School and Beyond 1980 Base-Year Survey. Using multiple linear regression, backward regression, and correlation analyses, the US Census regions and grades mostly As and Bs in English were found to be significant predictors of the number of science courses scheduled by black seniors.

Nonlinear responses of southern African rainfall to forcing from Atlantic SST in a high-resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, high resolution satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA) are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The MIRA dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the regional climate model's domain size are briefly presented, before a comparison of simulated daily rainfall from the model with the satellite-derived dataset. Secondly, simulations of current climate and rainfall extremes from the model are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are presented, suggesting highly nonlinear associations between rainfall extremes remote SST anomalies.

Optimal control of first order distributed systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, T. L.

1972-01-01

The problem of characterizing optimal controls for a class of distributed-parameter systems is considered. The system dynamics are characterized mathematically by a finite number of coupled partial differential equations involving first-order time and space derivatives of the state variables, which are constrained at the boundary by a finite number of algebraic relations. Multiple control inputs, extending over the entire spatial region occupied by the system ("distributed controls') are to be designed so that the response of the system is optimal. A major example involving boundary control of an unstable low-density plasma is developed from physical laws.

cn.FARMS: a latent variable model to detect copy number variations in microarray data with a low false discovery rate.

PubMed

Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Mayr, Andreas; Klambauer, Günter; Tuefferd, Marianne; De Bondt, An; Talloen, Willem; Göhlmann, Hinrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

2011-07-01

Cost-effective oligonucleotide genotyping arrays like the Affymetrix SNP 6.0 are still the predominant technique to measure DNA copy number variations (CNVs). However, CNV detection methods for microarrays overestimate both the number and the size of CNV regions and, consequently, suffer from a high false discovery rate (FDR). A high FDR means that many CNVs are wrongly detected and therefore not associated with a disease in a clinical study, though correction for multiple testing takes them into account and thereby decreases the study's discovery power. For controlling the FDR, we propose a probabilistic latent variable model, 'cn.FARMS', which is optimized by a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach. cn.FARMS controls the FDR through the information gain of the posterior over the prior. The prior represents the null hypothesis of copy number 2 for all samples from which the posterior can only deviate by strong and consistent signals in the data. On HapMap data, cn.FARMS clearly outperformed the two most prevalent methods with respect to sensitivity and FDR. The software cn.FARMS is publicly available as a R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnfarms/cnfarms.html.

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Demographic risk factors of self-immolation: a case-control study.

PubMed

Ahmadi, Alireza; Mohammadi, Reza; Schwebel, David C; Khazaie, Habibolah; Yeganeh, Naser; Almasi, Afshin

2009-06-01

To investigate demographic risk factors for self-immolation patients. In a case-control study, 30 consecutive cases of deliberate self-inflicted burns admitted to the regional Burn centre (Imam Khomeini hospital in Kermanshah province, Iran) were compared with 30 controls who were selected from the community and matched by gender, age, and living area. All cases and controls were reviewed for demographic variables, including: age, gender, living area, family size, marital status, bearing and number of children, Body Mass Index (BMI), birth order, employment state, educational status, early school drop-out, and parent/guardian employment status. Two variables emerged as related to risk of self-immolation. Being the first or last child in family birth order was associated with increased risk of self-immolation. Moreover, among the married participants, having children was associated with decreased risk of self-immolation. The comparisons of other variables were not statistically significant. In multivariate analyses, none of the variables predicted risk for self-immolation. This study suggests that being the first or last child of a family might be a risk factor for self-immolation. For married persons, having children might serve as a protective factor from self-immolation. Other variables such as family size, marital status, number of children, BMI, employment state, educational status, early school drop-out, and parent/guardian employment status did not play a role as individually protective or risk factors for self-immolation.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

Changes in mental health services and suicide mortality in Norway: an ecological study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Mental disorders are strongly associated with excess suicide risk, and successful treatment might prevent suicide. Since 1990, and particularly after 1998, there has been a substantial increase in mental health service resources in Norway. This study aimed to investigate whether these changes have had an impact on suicide mortality. Methods We used Poisson regression analyses to assess the effect of changes in five mental health services variables on suicide mortality in five Norwegian health regions during the period 1990-2006. These variables included: number of man-labour years by all personnel, number of discharges, number of outpatient consultations, number of inpatient days, and number of hospital beds. Adjustments were made for sales of alcohol, sales of antidepressants, education, and unemployment. Results In the period 1990-2006, we observed a total of 9480 suicides and the total suicide rate declined by 26%. None of the mental health services variables were significantly associated with female or male suicide mortality in the adjusted analyses (p > 0.05). Sales of antidepressants (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97-1.00) and sales of alcohol (adjusted IRR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.18-1.72) were significantly associated with female suicide mortality; education (adjusted IRR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.79-0.94) and unemployment (adjusted IRR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.85-0.97) were significantly associated with male suicide mortality. Conclusions The adjusted analyses in the present study indicate that increased resources in Norwegian mental health services in the period 1990-2006 were statistically unrelated to suicide mortality. PMID:21443801

Relating Regional Arctic Sea Ice and climate extremes over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita-Scholz, Monica; Grosfeld, Klaus; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Patrick

2016-04-01

The potential increase of temperature extremes under climate change is a major threat to society, as temperature extremes have a deep impact on environment, hydrology, agriculture, society and economy. Hence, the analysis of the mechanisms underlying their occurrence, including their relationships with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea ice concentration, is of major importance. At the same time, the decline in Arctic sea ice cover during the last 30 years has been widely documented and it is clear that this change is having profound impacts at regional as well as planetary scale. As such, this study aims to investigate the relation between the autumn regional sea ice concentration variability and cold winters in Europe, as identified by the numbers of cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), ice days (ID) and consecutive frost days (CFD). We analyze the relationship between Arctic sea ice variation in autumn (September-October-November) averaged over eight different Arctic regions (Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi/Bering Seas, Central Arctic, Greenland Sea, Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay, Laptev/East Siberian Seas and Northern Hemisphere) and variations in atmospheric circulation and climate extreme indices in the following winter season over Europe using composite map analysis. Based on the composite map analysis it is shown that the response of the winter extreme temperatures over Europe is highly correlated/connected to changes in Arctic sea ice variability. However, this signal is not symmetrical for the case of high and low sea ice years. Moreover, the response of temperatures extreme over Europe to sea ice variability over the different Arctic regions differs substantially. The regions which have the strongest impact on the extreme winter temperature over Europe are: Barents/Kara Seas, Beaufort Sea, Central Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. For the years of high sea ice concentration in the Barents/Kara Seas there is a reduction in the number of cold nights, cold days, ice days and consecutive frost days over the western part of Europe. In the opposite case of low sea ice concentration over the Barents/Kara Seas an increase of up to 8 days/winter of cold nights and days is observed over the whole Europe and an increase of up to 4 days/winter in the number of ID and CFD is observed over the same regions. The cold winters over Europe (low sea ice years) are associated with anomalous anticyclone and the downstream development of a mid-latitude trough, which in turn favours the advection of cold air from the north, providing favourable conditions for severe winters over Europe. We suggest that these results can help to improve the seasonal predictions of winter extreme events over Europe. Due to the non-linear response to high vs. low sea ice years, the skill of the predictions might depend on the sign and amplitude of the anomalies.

Rocky Mountain spotted fever in Georgia, 1961-75: analysis of social and environmental factors affecting occurrence.

PubMed Central

Newhouse, V F; Choi, K; Holman, R C; Thacker, S B; D'Angelo, L J; Smith, J D

1986-01-01

For the period of 1961 through 1975, 10 geographic and sociologic variables in each of the 159 counties of Georgia were analyzed to determine how they were correlated with the occurrence of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF). Combinations of variables were transformed into a smaller number of factors using principal-component analysis. Based upon the relative values of these factors, geographic areas of similarity were delineated by cluster analysis. It was found by use of these analyses that the counties of the State formed four similarity clusters, which we called south, central, lower north and upper north. When the incidence of RMSF was subsequently calculated for each of these regions of similarity, the regions had differing RMSF incidence; low in the south and upper north, moderate in the central, and high in the lower north. The four similarity clusters agreed closely with the incidence of RMSF when both were plotted on a map. Thus, when analyzed simultaneously, the 10 variables selected could be used to predict the occurrence of RMSF. The most important variables were those of climate and geography. Of secondary, but still major importance, were the changes over the 15-year period in variables associated with humans and their environmental alterations. Detailed examination of these factors has permitted quantitative evaluation of the simultaneous impacts of the geographic and sociologic variables on the occurrence of RMSF in Georgia. These analyses could be updated to reflect changes in the relevant variables and tested as a means of identifying new high risk areas for RMSF in the State. More generally, this method might be adapted to clarify our understanding of the relative importance of individual variables in the ecology of other diseases or environmental health problems. PMID:3090609

Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

2016-04-01

Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional ITCZ movements during the last millennium that compare well with available records of fluctuations in northern ITCZ extension (Cariaco Basin). Comparisons to proxy records from tropical South America regions affected by the SASM and the South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) allow evaluating the SAMS/SACZ-ITCZ linkages. Furthermore, the data are discussed in terms of the role of the Atlantic and Pacific modes of variability in modulating regional hydroclimate.

Early developmental gene enhancers affect subcortical volumes in the adult human brain.

PubMed

Becker, Martin; Guadalupe, Tulio; Franke, Barbara; Hibar, Derrek P; Renteria, Miguel E; Stein, Jason L; Thompson, Paul M; Francks, Clyde; Vernes, Sonja C; Fisher, Simon E

2016-05-01

Genome-wide association screens aim to identify common genetic variants contributing to the phenotypic variability of complex traits, such as human height or brain morphology. The identified genetic variants are mostly within noncoding genomic regions and the biology of the genotype-phenotype association typically remains unclear. In this article, we propose a complementary targeted strategy to reveal the genetic underpinnings of variability in subcortical brain volumes, by specifically selecting genomic loci that are experimentally validated forebrain enhancers, active in early embryonic development. We hypothesized that genetic variation within these enhancers may affect the development and ultimately the structure of subcortical brain regions in adults. We tested whether variants in forebrain enhancer regions showed an overall enrichment of association with volumetric variation in subcortical structures of >13,000 healthy adults. We observed significant enrichment of genomic loci that affect the volume of the hippocampus within forebrain enhancers (empirical P = 0.0015), a finding which robustly passed the adjusted threshold for testing of multiple brain phenotypes (cutoff of P < 0.0083 at an alpha of 0.05). In analyses of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we identified an association upstream of the ID2 gene with rs7588305 and variation in hippocampal volume. This SNP-based association survived multiple-testing correction for the number of SNPs analyzed but not for the number of subcortical structures. Targeting known regulatory regions offers a way to understand the underlying biology that connects genotypes to phenotypes, particularly in the context of neuroimaging genetics. This biology-driven approach generates testable hypotheses regarding the functional biology of identified associations. Hum Brain Mapp 37:1788-1800, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Determinants of stillbirth among women deliveries at Amhara region, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Lakew, Demeke; Tesfaye, Dereje; Mekonnen, Haile

2017-11-13

Stillbirth is one of general medical issues that could contribute significantly to creating nations like Ethiopia. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and related factors of stillbirth among deliveries at Amhara region, Ethiopia. The study used the Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey (EMDHS) data collected from 2555 eligible Amhara region women in 2014. Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression analysis was used. The prevalence of stillbirth outcomes became 85 per 1000 (total live birth). Besides, majority of women did not attend any formal education and had no antenatal care follow up. Women whose age at first birth below 18 years were 1859(72.8%) and the mean preceding birth interval were 33.6 months. Even women who attended primary and above education were about 50% and they were less likely to have had stillbirth outcomes than those who had no education (AOR: 0.505, 95% CI 0.311-0.820) and women having higher household wealth index were less likely to have had stillbirth outcomes as it is compared to the reference category. Moreover, women having preceding birth interval above 36 months were about 89% of less likely to end up stillbirth outcomes as compared to women having preceding birth interval below 24 months (AOR: 0.109, 95% CI 0.071-8.0.168). It could be inferred that a stillbirth result is one of the general medical issues in Amhara Region. Among different factors considered in this study, age, age at first birth, wealth index, birth order number and preceding birth interval in months were found to be significantly associated factors for stillbirth. Therefore, more awareness of early birth, widening birth interval, enhancing maternal care (for aged women) and early birth order number could be recommended.

Potential utilization for the evaluation of particulate and gaseous pollutants at an urban site near a major highway.

PubMed

Agudelo-Castañeda, Dayana M; Teixeira, Elba C; Schneider, Ismael L; Pereira, Felipe N; Oliveira, Marcos L S; Taffarel, Silvio R; Sehn, Janaína L; Ramos, Claudete G; Silva, Luis F O

2016-02-01

Works of particle number and mass concentration variability have a great importance since they may indicate better the influence of vehicle emissions in an urban region. Moreover, the importance of this work lies in the fact that there are few studies in Brazil, where the fuel used has unique characteristics. Consequently, this paper presents measurements of particle number (size range 0.3-10 μm), particle mass (PM10, PM2.5, PM1), O3 and NOx (NO, NO2), in a site near a major highway at the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, south Brazil. Measurements were carried out during two years: 2012 and 2013. Particle number and mass concentrations were measured using an optical counter with a PM10 analyzer. Results showed that concentrations of N0.3-1 (0.3-1 μm) were the highest, although similar to N1-2.5 (1-2.5 μm). Daily variability of the analyzed pollutants followed the traffic pattern. Moreover, NO2, O3, and particle number were higher during the day, whereas NO, NOx, and particle matter showed higher concentrations during nighttime. Traffic influence was evidenced by the mean concentrations of weekends and weekdays, being higher for the latter. Correlation of particles and gases with meteorological variables, together with the application of PCA confirmed the influence of vehicle exhaust discharges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Species Distributions from Heterogeneous Data for the Biogeographic Regionalization of the European Bryophyte Flora

PubMed Central

Mateo, Rubén G.; Vanderpoorten, Alain; Muñoz, Jesús

2013-01-01

The definition of biogeographic regions provides a fundamental framework for a range of basic and applied questions in biogeography, evolutionary biology, systematics and conservation. Previous research suggested that environmental forcing results in highly congruent regionalization patterns across taxa, but that the size and number of regions depends on the dispersal ability of the taxa considered. We produced a biogeographic regionalization of European bryophytes and hypothesized that (1) regions defined for bryophytes would differ from those defined for other taxa due to the highly specific eco-physiology of the group and (2) their high dispersal ability would result in the resolution of few, large regions. Species distributions were recorded using 10,000 km2 MGRS pixels. Because of the lack of data across large portions of the area, species distribution models employing macroclimatic variables as predictors were used to determine the potential composition of empty pixels. K-means clustering analyses of the pixels based on their potential species composition were employed to define biogeographic regions. The optimal number of regions was determined by v-fold cross-validation and Moran’s I statistic. The spatial congruence of the regions identified from their potential bryophyte assemblages with large-scale vegetation patterns is at odds with our primary hypothesis. This reinforces the notion that post-glacial migration patterns might have been much more similar in bryophytes and vascular plants than previously thought. The substantially lower optimal number of clusters and the absence of nested patterns within the main biogeographic regions, as compared to identical analyses in vascular plants, support our second hypothesis. The modelling approach implemented here is, however, based on many assumptions that are discussed but can only be tested when additional data on species distributions become available, highlighting the substantial importance of developing integrated mapping projects for all taxa in key biogeographically areas of Europe, and the Mediterranean peninsulas in particular. PMID:23409015

Heteroplasmy and evidence for recombination in the mitochondrial control region of the flatfish Platichthys flesus.

PubMed

Hoarau, Galice; Holla, Suzanne; Lescasse, Rachel; Stam, Wytze T; Olsen, Jeanine L

2002-12-01

The general assumption that mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) does not undergo recombination has been challenged recently in invertebrates. Here we present the first direct evidence for recombination in the mtDNA of a vertebrate, the flounder Platichthys flesus. The control region in the mtDNA of this flatfish is characterized by the presence of a variable number of tandem repeats and a high level of heteroplasmy. Two types of repeats were recognized, differing by two C-T point mutations. Most individuals carry a pure "C" or a pure "T" array, but one individual showed a compound "CT" array. Such a compound array is evidence for recombination in the mtDNA control region from the flounder.

Association between the dopamine D4 receptor gene exon III variable number of tandem repeats and political attitudes in female Han Chinese

PubMed Central

Ebstein, Richard P.; Monakhov, Mikhail V.; Lu, Yunfeng; Jiang, Yushi; Lai, Poh San; Chew, Soo Hong

2015-01-01

Twin and family studies suggest that political attitudes are partially determined by an individual's genotype. The dopamine D4 receptor gene (DRD4) exon III repeat region that has been extensively studied in connection with human behaviour, is a plausible candidate to contribute to individual differences in political attitudes. A first United States study provisionally identified this gene with political attitude along a liberal–conservative axis albeit contingent upon number of friends. In a large sample of 1771 Han Chinese university students in Singapore, we observed a significant main effect of association between the DRD4 exon III variable number of tandem repeats and political attitude. Subjects with two copies of the 4-repeat allele (4R/4R) were significantly more conservative. Our results provided evidence for a role of the DRD4 gene variants in contributing to individual differences in political attitude particularly in females and more generally suggested that associations between individual genes, and neurochemical pathways, contributing to traits relevant to the social sciences can be provisionally identified. PMID:26246555

Road accidents and tourism: the case of the Balearic Islands (Spain).

PubMed

Rosselló, Jaume; Saenz-de-Miera, Oscar

2011-05-01

The increase in the number of tourists for many destinations and their increased mobility within host countries or regions has implied a rise in tourism-associated externalities, with vehicle crashes as the most common cause of injury for tourists. Within the transport literature, the number and variation in the amount of accidents has been related to a large set of determining variables, including weather conditions, socio-economic characteristics, exposure, physical characteristics of the road and a variety of dummies that try to capture effects such as safety laws and seasonal variations. However, the presence of tourism has been neglected. Using the case study of the Balearic Islands, the present study estimates the role of tourism in determining the number of accidents in a daily context, using the set of variables suggested by the literature and incorporating a daily measure for the stock of tourists at a host destination. Results show how tourism can be associated with a significant amount of the accidents that take place in the Balearics. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between the dopamine D4 receptor gene exon III variable number of tandem repeats and political attitudes in female Han Chinese.

PubMed

Ebstein, Richard P; Monakhov, Mikhail V; Lu, Yunfeng; Jiang, Yushi; Lai, Poh San; Chew, Soo Hong

2015-08-22

Twin and family studies suggest that political attitudes are partially determined by an individual's genotype. The dopamine D4 receptor gene (DRD4) exon III repeat region that has been extensively studied in connection with human behaviour, is a plausible candidate to contribute to individual differences in political attitudes. A first United States study provisionally identified this gene with political attitude along a liberal-conservative axis albeit contingent upon number of friends. In a large sample of 1771 Han Chinese university students in Singapore, we observed a significant main effect of association between the DRD4 exon III variable number of tandem repeats and political attitude. Subjects with two copies of the 4-repeat allele (4R/4R) were significantly more conservative. Our results provided evidence for a role of the DRD4 gene variants in contributing to individual differences in political attitude particularly in females and more generally suggested that associations between individual genes, and neurochemical pathways, contributing to traits relevant to the social sciences can be provisionally identified. © 2015 The Author(s).

Detailed analysis of the microbial population in Malaysian spontaneous cocoa pulp fermentations reveals a core and variable microbiota.

PubMed

Meersman, Esther; Steensels, Jan; Mathawan, Melissa; Wittocx, Pieter-Jan; Saels, Veerle; Struyf, Nore; Bernaert, Herwig; Vrancken, Gino; Verstrepen, Kevin J

2013-01-01

The fermentation of cocoa pulp is one of the few remaining large-scale spontaneous microbial processes in today's food industry. The microbiota involved in cocoa pulp fermentations is complex and variable, which leads to inconsistent production efficiency and cocoa quality. Despite intensive research in the field, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the microbiota is still lacking, especially for the expanding Asian production region. Here, we report a large-scale, comprehensive analysis of four spontaneous Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations across two time points in the harvest season and two fermentation methods. Our results show that the cocoa microbiota consists of a "core" and a "variable" part. The bacterial populations show a remarkable consistency, with only two dominant species, Lactobacillus fermentum and Acetobacter pasteurianus. The fungal diversity is much larger, with four dominant species occurring in all fermentations ("core" yeasts), and a large number of yeasts that only occur in lower numbers and specific fermentations ("variable" yeasts). Despite this diversity, a clear pattern emerges, with early dominance of apiculate yeasts and late dominance of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Our results provide new insights into the microbial diversity in Malaysian cocoa pulp fermentations and pave the way for the selection of starter cultures to increase efficiency and consistency.

Using genetic algorithms to achieve an automatic and global optimization of analogue methods for statistical downscaling of precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Pascal; Weingartner, Rolf; Obled, Charles; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Analogue methods (AMs) rely on the hypothesis that similar situations, in terms of atmospheric circulation, are likely to result in similar local or regional weather conditions. These methods consist of sampling a certain number of past situations, based on different synoptic-scale meteorological variables (predictors), in order to construct a probabilistic prediction for a local weather variable of interest (predictand). They are often used for daily precipitation prediction, either in the context of real-time forecasting, reconstruction of past weather conditions, or future climate impact studies. The relationship between predictors and predictands is defined by several parameters (predictor variable, spatial and temporal windows used for the comparison, analogy criteria, and number of analogues), which are often calibrated by means of a semi-automatic sequential procedure that has strong limitations. AMs may include several subsampling levels (e.g. first sorting a set of analogs in terms of circulation, then restricting to those with similar moisture status). The parameter space of the AMs can be very complex, with substantial co-dependencies between the parameters. Thus, global optimization techniques are likely to be necessary for calibrating most AM variants, as they can optimize all parameters of all analogy levels simultaneously. Genetic algorithms (GAs) were found to be successful in finding optimal values of AM parameters. They allow taking into account parameters inter-dependencies, and selecting objectively some parameters that were manually selected beforehand (such as the pressure levels and the temporal windows of the predictor variables), and thus obviate the need of assessing a high number of combinations. The performance scores of the optimized methods increased compared to reference methods, and this even to a greater extent for days with high precipitation totals. The resulting parameters were found to be relevant and spatially coherent. Moreover, they were obtained automatically and objectively, which reduces efforts invested in exploration attempts when adapting the method to a new region or for a new predictand. In addition, the approach allowed for new degrees of freedom, such as a weighting between the pressure levels, and non overlapping spatial windows. Genetic algorithms were then used further in order to automatically select predictor variables and analogy criteria. This resulted in interesting outputs, providing new predictor-criterion combinations. However, some limitations of the approach were encountered, and the need of the expert input is likely to remain necessary. Nevertheless, letting GAs exploring a dataset for the best predictor for a predictand of interest is certainly a useful tool, particularly when applied for a new predictand or a new region under different climatic characteristics.

Vascular pericyte density and angiogenesis associated with adenocarcinoma of the prostate.

PubMed

Killingsworth, Murray C; Wu, Xiaojuan

2011-01-01

Angiogenesis facilitates metabolism, proliferation and metastasis of adenocarcinoma cells in the prostate, as without the development of new vasculature tumor growth cannot be sustained. However, angiogenesis is variable with the well-known phenomenon of vascular 'hotspots' seen associated with viable tumor cell mass. With the recent recognition of pericytes as molecular regulators of angiogenesis, we have examined the interaction of these cells in actively growing new vessels. Pericyte interactions with developing new vessels were examined using transmission electron microscopy. Pericyte distribution was mapped from α-SMA+ immunostained histological sections and quantified using image analysis. Data was obtained from peripheral and more central regions of 27 cases with Gleason scores of 4-9. Pericyte numbers were increased around developing new vessel sprouts at sites of luminal maturation. Numbers were reduced around the actively growing tips of migrating endothelial cells and functional new vessels. Tumor regions internal to a 500-μm peripheral band showed higher microvessel pericyte density than the peripheral region. Pericytes were found to be key cellular components of developing new vessels in adenocarcinoma of the prostate. Their numbers increased at sites of luminal maturation with these cells displaying an activated phenotype different to quiescent pericytes. Increased pericyte density was found internal to the peripheral region, suggesting more mature vessels lie more centrally. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Resonance dynamics of DCO (X ˜ '2A ) simulated with the dynamically pruned discrete variable representation (DP-DVR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsson, Henrik R.; Riedel, Jens; Wei, Jie; Temps, Friedrich; Hartke, Bernd

2018-05-01

Selected resonance states of the deuterated formyl radical in the electronic ground state X ˜ '2A are computed using our recently introduced dynamically pruned discrete variable representation [H. R. Larsson, B. Hartke, and D. J. Tannor, J. Chem. Phys. 145, 204108 (2016)]. Their decay and asymptotic distributions are analyzed and, for selected resonances, compared to experimental results obtained by a combination of stimulated emission pumping and velocity-map imaging of the product D atoms. The theoretical results show good agreement with the experimental kinetic energy distributions. The intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution is analyzed and compared with previous results from an effective polyad Hamiltonian. Specifically, we analyzed the part of the wavefunction that remains in the interaction region during the decay. The results from the polyad Hamiltonian could mainly be confirmed. The C=O stretch quantum number is typically conserved, while the D—C=O bend quantum number decreases. Differences are due to strong anharmonic coupling such that all resonances have major contributions from several zero-order states. For some of the resonances, the coupling is so strong that no further zero-order states appear during the dynamics in the interaction region, even after propagating for 300 ps.

Reproductive and Obstetric Factors Are Key Predictors of Maternal Anemia during Pregnancy in Ethiopia: Evidence from Demographic and Health Survey (2011)

PubMed Central

Alemu, Taddese; Umeta, Melaku

2015-01-01

Anemia is a major public health problem worldwide. In Ethiopia, a nationally representative and consistent evidence is lacking on the prevalence and determinants during pregnancy. We conducted an in-depth analysis of demographic and health survey for the year 2011 which is a representative data collected from all regions in Ethiopia. Considering maternal anemia as an outcome variable, predicting variables from sociodemographic, household, and reproductive/obstetric characteristics were identified for analyses. Logistic regression model was applied to identify predictors at P < 0.05. The prevalence of anemia among pregnant women was 23%. Maternal age, region, pregnancy trimester, number of under five children, previous history of abortion (termination of pregnancy), breastfeeding practices, and number of antenatal care visits were key independent predictors of anemia during pregnancy. In conclusion, the level of anemia during pregnancy is a moderate public health problem in Ethiopia. Yet, special preventive measures should be undertaken for pregnant women who are older in age and having too many under five children and previous history of abortion. Further evidence is expected to be generated concerning why pregnant mothers from the eastern part of the country and those with better access to radio disproportionately develop anemia more than their counterparts. PMID:26417454

Spatial variations in drainage efficiency in a boreal wetland environment as a function of lidar and radar-derived deviations from the regional hydraulic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, C.; Brisco, B.; Chasmer, L.; Devito, K.; Montgomery, J. S.; Patterson, S.; Petrone, R. M.

2017-12-01

The dense forest cover of the Western Boreal Plains of northern Alberta is underlain by a mix of glacial moraines, sandy outwash sediments and clay plains possessing spatially variable hydraulic conductivities. The region is also characterised by a large number of post-glacial surface depression wetlands that have seasonally and topographically limited surface connectivity. Consequently, drainage along shallow regional hydraulic gradients may be dominated either by variations in surface geology or local variations in Et. Long-term government lake level monitoring is sparse in this region, but over a decade of hydrometeorological monitoring has taken place around the Utikuma Regional Study Area (URSA), a research site led by the University of Alberta. In situ lake and ground water level data are here combined with time series of airborne lidar and RadarSat II synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to assess the spatial variability of water levels during late summer period characterised by flow recession. Long term Lidar data were collected or obtained by the authors in August of 2002, 2008, 2011 and 2016, while seasonal SAR data were captured approximately every 24 days during the summers of 2015, 2016 and 2017. Water levels for wetlands exceeding 100m2 in area across a north-trending 20km x 5km topographic gradient north of Utikuma Lake were extracted directly from the lidar and indirectly from the SAR. The recent seasonal variability in spatial water levels was extracted from SAR, while the lidar data illustrated more long term trends associated with land use and riparian vegetation succession. All water level data collected in August were combined and averaged at multiple scales using a raster focal statistics function to generate a long term spatial map of the regional hydraulic gradient and scale-dependent variations. Areas of indicated high and low drainage efficiency were overlain onto layers of landcover and surface geology to ascertain causal relationships. Areas associated with high spatial variability in water level illustrate reduced drainage connectivity, while areas of reduced variability indicate high surface connectivity and/or hydraulic conductivity. The hypothesis of surface geology controls on local wetland connectivity and landscape drainage efficiency is supported through this analysis.

Quantitative Analysis of Relevant Soil, Land-use and Climate Characteristics on Landscape Degradation in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kertesz, Adam; Mika, Janos; Jakab, Gergely; Palinkas, Melinda

2017-04-01

The objective of our research is to survey degradation processes acting in each micro-region of Hungary in connection with geographical and climatic characteristics. A survey of land degradation processes has been carried out at medium scale (1:50 000) to identify the affected areas of the region. Over 18,000 rectangles of Hungary have been digitally characterised for several types of land degradation. Water-flow type gully erosion and soil-loss (RUSLE, 2015: Esdac-data) are studied for dependent variables in this study. USDA textural classes, available water capacity, bulk density, clay content, coarse fragments, silt content, sand content, soil parent material, soil texture, land-use type (Corine, 2012) are used for non-climatic variables. Some of these characteristics are quantified in a non-scalable way, so the first step was to arrange these qualitative codes or pseudo-numbers into monotonous order for including them into the following multi-regression analyses. Data available from the CarpatClim Project (www.carpatclim-eu.org/pages/home) for 1961-2010 are also used in their 50 years averages is seasonal and annual resolution. The selected variables from this gridded data set are global radiation, daily mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, number of extreme cold days (< 20 C), precipitation, extreme wet days (>20 mm), days with utilizable precipitation (>1mm/d), potential evapotranspiration, Palmer Index (PDSI), Palfai Index (PAI), relative humidity and wind speed at 10 m height. The gully erosion processes strongly depend on the investigated non-climatic variables, mostly on parent material and slope. The group of further climatic factors is formed by winter relative humidity, wind speed and all-year round Palmer index. Besides leading role of the above non-climatic factors, additional effects of the significant climate variables are difficult to interpret. Nevertheless, the partial effects of these climate variables are combined with future climate scenarios available from GCM and RCM studies for Hungary. The real climate change effects may likely be stronger, than those obtained by this combination, due to inter-dependences between the non-climatic factors and climate variations. The study has been supported by the OTKA-K108755 project.

Spatial analysis of participation in the Waterloo Residential Energy Efficiency Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Ge Bella

Researchers are in broad agreement that energy-conserving actions produce economic as well as energy savings. Household energy rating systems (HERS) have been established in many countries to inform households of their house's current energy performance and to help reduce their energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In Canada, the national EnerGuide for Houses (EGH) program is delivered by many local delivery agents, including non-profit green community organizations. Waterloo Region Green Solutions is the local non-profit that offers the EGH residential energy evaluation service to local households. The purpose of this thesis is to explore the determinants of household's participation in the residential energy efficiency program (REEP) in Waterloo Region, to explain the relationship between the explanatory variables and REEP participation, and to propose ways to improve this kind of program. A spatial (trend) analysis was conducted within a geographic information system (GIS) to determine the spatial patterns of the REEP participation in Waterloo Region from 1999 to 2006. The impact of sources of information on participation and relationships between participation rates and explanatory variables were identified. GIS proved successful in presenting a visual interpretation of spatial patterns of the REEP participation. In general, the participating households tend to be clustered in urban areas and scattered in rural areas. Different sources of information played significant roles in reaching participants in different years. Moreover, there was a relationship between each explanatory variable and the REEP participation rates. Statistical analysis was applied to obtain a quantitative assessment of relationships between hypothesized explanatory variables and participation in the REEP. The Poisson regression model was used to determine the relationship between hypothesized explanatory variables and REEP participation at the CDA level. The results show that all of the independent variables have a statistically significant positive relationship with REEP participation. These variables include level of education, average household income, employment rate, home ownership, population aged 65 and over, age of home, and number of eligible dwellings. The logistic regression model was used to assess the ability of the hypothesized explanatory variables to predict whether or not households would participate in a second follow-up evaluation after completing upgrades to their home. The results show all the explanatory variables have significant relationships with the dependent variable. The increased rating score, average household income, aged population, and age of home are positively related to the dependent variable. While the dwelling size and education has negative relationships with the dependent variable. In general, the contribution of this work provides a practical understanding of how the energy efficiency program operates, and insight into the type of variables that may be successful in bringing about changes in performance in the energy efficiency project in Waterloo Region. Secondly, with the completion of this research, future residential energy efficiency programs can use the information from this research and emulate or expand upon the efforts and lessons learned from the Residential Energy Efficiency Project in Waterloo Region case study. Thirdly, this research also contributes to practical experience on how to integrate different datasets using GIS.

Determinants of financial performance of home-visit nursing agencies in Japan.

PubMed

Fukui, Sakiko; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro; Fujita, Junko; Ikezaki, Sumie

2014-01-09

Japan has the highest aging population in the world and promotion of home health services is an urgent policy issue. As home-visit nursing plays a major role in home health services, the Japanese government began promotion of this activity in 1994. However, the scale of home-visit nursing agencies has remained small (the average numbers of nursing staff and other staff were 4.2 and 1.7, respectively, in 2011) and financial performance (profitability) is a concern in such small agencies. Additionally, the factors related to profitability in home-visit nursing agencies in Japan have not been examined multilaterally and in detail. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to examine the determinants of financial performance of home-visit nursing agencies. We performed a nationwide survey of 2,912 randomly selected home-visit nursing agencies in Japan. Multinomial logistic regression was used to clarify the determinants of profitability of the agency (profitable, stable or unprofitable) based on variables related to management of the agency (operating structure, management by a nurse manager, employment, patient utilization, quality control, regional cooperation, and financial condition). Among the selected home-visit nursing agencies, responses suitable for analysis were obtained from 1,340 (effective response rate, 46.0%). Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that both profitability and unprofitability were related to multiple variables in management of the agency when compared to agencies with stable financial performance. These variables included the number of nursing staff/rehabilitation staff/patients, being owned by a hospital, the number of cooperative hospitals, home-death rate among terminal patients, controlling staff objectives by nurse managers, and income going to compensation. The results suggest that many variables in management of a home-visit nursing agency, including the operating structure of the agency, regional cooperation, staff employment, patient utilization, and quality control of care, have an influence in both profitable and unprofitable agencies. These findings indicate the importance of consideration of management issues in achieving stable financial performance in home-visit nursing agencies in Japan. The findings may also be useful in other countries with growing aging populations.

Determinants of financial performance of home-visit nursing agencies in Japan

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Japan has the highest aging population in the world and promotion of home health services is an urgent policy issue. As home-visit nursing plays a major role in home health services, the Japanese government began promotion of this activity in 1994. However, the scale of home-visit nursing agencies has remained small (the average numbers of nursing staff and other staff were 4.2 and 1.7, respectively, in 2011) and financial performance (profitability) is a concern in such small agencies. Additionally, the factors related to profitability in home-visit nursing agencies in Japan have not been examined multilaterally and in detail. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to examine the determinants of financial performance of home-visit nursing agencies. Methods We performed a nationwide survey of 2,912 randomly selected home-visit nursing agencies in Japan. Multinomial logistic regression was used to clarify the determinants of profitability of the agency (profitable, stable or unprofitable) based on variables related to management of the agency (operating structure, management by a nurse manager, employment, patient utilization, quality control, regional cooperation, and financial condition). Results Among the selected home-visit nursing agencies, responses suitable for analysis were obtained from 1,340 (effective response rate, 46.0%). Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that both profitability and unprofitability were related to multiple variables in management of the agency when compared to agencies with stable financial performance. These variables included the number of nursing staff/rehabilitation staff/patients, being owned by a hospital, the number of cooperative hospitals, home-death rate among terminal patients, controlling staff objectives by nurse managers, and income going to compensation. Conclusions The results suggest that many variables in management of a home-visit nursing agency, including the operating structure of the agency, regional cooperation, staff employment, patient utilization, and quality control of care, have an influence in both profitable and unprofitable agencies. These findings indicate the importance of consideration of management issues in achieving stable financial performance in home-visit nursing agencies in Japan. The findings may also be useful in other countries with growing aging populations. PMID:24400964

Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends, Seasonal Cycle, Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes.

PubMed

Humphrey, Vincent; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.

Comparison between DMSP-OLS and S-NPP Day-Night Band in Correlating with Regional Socio-economic Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, X.; Shao, X.; Cao, C.; Fu, X.

2013-12-01

Night-time light imagery offers a unique view of the Earth's surface. In the past, the nighttime light data collected by the DMSP-OLS sensors have been used as efficient means to correlate with the global socio-economic activities. With the launch of Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite in October 2011, the Day Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard S-NPP represents a major advancement in night time imaging capabilities because it surpassed its predecessor DMSP-OLS in radiometric accuracy, spatial resolution, and geometric quality. In this paper, we compared the performance of DNB image and DMSP image in correlating regional socio-economic activities and analyzed the leading causes for the differences. The correlation coefficients between the socio-economic variables such as population, regional GDP etc. and the characteristic variables derived from the night time light images of DNB and DMSP at provincial level in China were computed as performance metrics for comparison. In general, the correlation between DNB data and socio-economic data is better than that of DMSP data. To explain the difference in the correlation, we further analyzed the effects of several factors such as radiometric saturation and quantization of DMSP data, low spatial resolution, different data acquisition times between DNB and DMSP images, and difference in the transformation used in converting digital number (DN) value to radiance.

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf. PMID:27997536

Identifying the key factors in increasing recycling and reducing residual household waste: a case study of the Flemish region of Belgium.

PubMed

Gellynck, X; Jacobsen, R; Verhelst, P

2011-10-01

The competent waste authority in the Flemish region of Belgium created the 'Implementation plan household waste 2003-2007' and the 'Implementation plan sustainable management 2010-2015' to comply with EU regulation. It incorporates European and regional requirements and describes strategies, goals, actions and instruments for the collection and treatment of household waste. The central mandatory goal is to reduce and maintain the amount of residual household waste to 150 kg per capita per year between 2010-2015. In literature, a reasonable body of information has been published on the effectiveness and efficiency of a variety of policy instruments, but the information is complex, often contradictory and difficult to interpret. The objective of this paper is to identify, through the development of a binary logistic regression model, those variables of the waste collection scheme that help municipalities to reach the mandatory 150 kg goal. The model covers a number of variables for household characteristics, provision of recycling services, frequency of waste collection and charging for waste services. This paper, however, is not about waste prevention and reuse. The dataset originates from 2003. Four out of 12 variables in the model contributed significantly: income per capita, cost of residual waste collection, collection frequency and separate curbside collection of organic waste. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Putting Temperature and Oxygen Thresholds of Marine Animals in Context of Environmental Change: A Regional Perspective for the Scotian Shelf and Gulf of St. Lawrence.

PubMed

Brennan, Catherine E; Blanchard, Hannah; Fennel, Katja

2016-01-01

We conducted a literature review of reported temperature, salinity, pH, depth and oxygen preferences and thresholds of important marine species found in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Scotian Shelf region. We classified 54 identified fishes and macroinvertebrates as important either because they support a commercial fishery, have threatened or at risk status, or meet one of the following criteria: bycatch, baitfish, invasive, vagrant, important for ecosystem energy transfer, or predators or prey of the above species. The compiled data allow an assessment of species-level impacts including physiological stress and mortality given predictions of future ocean physical and biogeochemical conditions. If an observed, multi-decadal oxygen trend on the central Scotian Shelf continues, a number of species will lose favorable oxygen conditions, experience oxygen-stress, or disappear due to insufficient oxygen in the coming half-century. Projected regional trends and natural variability are both large, and natural variability will act to alternately amplify and dampen anthropogenic changes. When estimates of variability are included with the trend, species encounter unfavourable oxygen conditions decades sooner. Finally, temperature and oxygen thresholds of adult Atlantic wolffish (Anarhichas lupus) and adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) are assessed in the context of a potential future scenario derived from high-resolution ocean models for the central Scotian Shelf.

Potential efficacy of mitochondrial genes for animal DNA barcoding: a case study using eutherian mammals.

PubMed

Luo, Arong; Zhang, Aibing; Ho, Simon Yw; Xu, Weijun; Zhang, Yanzhou; Shi, Weifeng; Cameron, Stephen L; Zhu, Chaodong

2011-01-28

A well-informed choice of genetic locus is central to the efficacy of DNA barcoding. Current DNA barcoding in animals involves the use of the 5' half of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene (CO1) to diagnose and delimit species. However, there is no compelling a priori reason for the exclusive focus on this region, and it has been shown that it performs poorly for certain animal groups. To explore alternative mitochondrial barcoding regions, we compared the efficacy of the universal CO1 barcoding region with the other mitochondrial protein-coding genes in eutherian mammals. Four criteria were used for this comparison: the number of recovered species, sequence variability within and between species, resolution to taxonomic levels above that of species, and the degree of mutational saturation. Based on 1,179 mitochondrial genomes of eutherians, we found that the universal CO1 barcoding region is a good representative of mitochondrial genes as a whole because the high species-recovery rate (> 90%) was similar to that of other mitochondrial genes, and there were no significant differences in intra- or interspecific variability among genes. However, an overlap between intra- and interspecific variability was still problematic for all mitochondrial genes. Our results also demonstrated that any choice of mitochondrial gene for DNA barcoding failed to offer significant resolution at higher taxonomic levels. We suggest that the CO1 barcoding region, the universal DNA barcode, is preferred among the mitochondrial protein-coding genes as a molecular diagnostic at least for eutherian species identification. Nevertheless, DNA barcoding with this marker may still be problematic for certain eutherian taxa and our approach can be used to test potential barcoding loci for such groups.

Potential efficacy of mitochondrial genes for animal DNA barcoding: a case study using eutherian mammals

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A well-informed choice of genetic locus is central to the efficacy of DNA barcoding. Current DNA barcoding in animals involves the use of the 5' half of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene (CO1) to diagnose and delimit species. However, there is no compelling a priori reason for the exclusive focus on this region, and it has been shown that it performs poorly for certain animal groups. To explore alternative mitochondrial barcoding regions, we compared the efficacy of the universal CO1 barcoding region with the other mitochondrial protein-coding genes in eutherian mammals. Four criteria were used for this comparison: the number of recovered species, sequence variability within and between species, resolution to taxonomic levels above that of species, and the degree of mutational saturation. Results Based on 1,179 mitochondrial genomes of eutherians, we found that the universal CO1 barcoding region is a good representative of mitochondrial genes as a whole because the high species-recovery rate (> 90%) was similar to that of other mitochondrial genes, and there were no significant differences in intra- or interspecific variability among genes. However, an overlap between intra- and interspecific variability was still problematic for all mitochondrial genes. Our results also demonstrated that any choice of mitochondrial gene for DNA barcoding failed to offer significant resolution at higher taxonomic levels. Conclusions We suggest that the CO1 barcoding region, the universal DNA barcode, is preferred among the mitochondrial protein-coding genes as a molecular diagnostic at least for eutherian species identification. Nevertheless, DNA barcoding with this marker may still be problematic for certain eutherian taxa and our approach can be used to test potential barcoding loci for such groups. PMID:21276253

A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps.

PubMed

Castanho, Camila de Toledo; Lortie, Christopher J; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Prado, Paulo Inácio

2015-01-01

Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or 'stressful' environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%). Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping the outcome of net interactions.

Prevalence, Diversity, and Load of Borrelia species in Ticks That Have Fed on Humans in Regions of Sweden and Åland Islands, Finland with Different Lyme Borreliosis Incidences

PubMed Central

Wilhelmsson, Peter; Lindblom, Pontus; Fryland, Linda; Ernerudh, Jan; Forsberg, Pia; Lindgren, Per-Eric

2013-01-01

The incidence of Lyme borreliosis (LB) in a region may reflect the prevalence of Borrelia in the tick population. Our aim was to investigate if regions with different LB incidences can be distinguished by studying the prevalence and diversity of Borrelia species in their respective tick populations. The Borrelia load in a feeding tick increases with the duration of feeding, which may facilitate a transmission of Borrelia Spirochetes from tick to host. Therefore, we also wanted to investigate how the Borrelia load in ticks that have fed on humans varies with the duration of tick feeding. During 2008 and 2009, ticks that had bitten humans were collected from four regions of Sweden and Finland, regions with expected differences in LB incidence. The duration of tick feeding was estimated and Borrelia were detected and quantified by a quantitative PCR assay followed by species determination. Out of the 2,154 Ixodes ricinus ticks analyzed, 26% were infected with Borrelia and seven species were identified. B. spielmanii was detected for the first time in the regions. The tick populations collected from the four regions exhibited only minor differences in both prevalence and diversity of Borrelia species, indicating that these variables alone cannot explain the regions’ different LB incidences. The number of Borrelia cells in the infected ticks ranged from fewer than ten to more than a million. We also found a lower number of Borrelia cells in adult female ticks that had fed for more than 36 hours, compared to the number of Borrelia cells found in adult female ticks that had fed for less than 36 hours. PMID:24278437

Analysis of Copy Number Variation in the Abp Gene Regions of Two House Mouse Subspecies Suggests Divergence during the Gene Family Expansions.

PubMed

Pezer, Željka; Chung, Amanda G; Karn, Robert C; Laukaitis, Christina M

2017-06-01

The Androgen-binding protein ( Abp ) gene region of the mouse genome contains 64 genes, some encoding pheromones that influence assortative mating between mice from different subspecies. Using CNVnator and quantitative PCR, we explored copy number variation in this gene family in natural populations of Mus musculus domesticus ( Mmd ) and Mus musculus musculus ( Mmm ), two subspecies of house mice that form a narrow hybrid zone in Central Europe. We found that copy number variation in the center of the Abp gene region is very common in wild Mmd , primarily representing the presence/absence of the final duplications described for the mouse genome. Clustering of Mmd individuals based on this variation did not reflect their geographical origin, suggesting no population divergence in the Abp gene cluster. However, copy number variation patterns differ substantially between Mmd and other mouse taxa. Large blocks of Abp genes are absent in Mmm , Mus musculus castaneus and an outgroup, Mus spretus , although with differences in variation and breakpoint locations. Our analysis calls into question the reliance on a reference genome for interpreting the detailed organization of genes in taxa more distant from the Mmd reference genome. The polymorphic nature of the gene family expansion in all four taxa suggests that the number of Abp genes, especially in the central gene region, is not critical to the survival and reproduction of the mouse. However, Abp haplotypes of variable length may serve as a source of raw genetic material for new signals influencing reproductive communication and thus speciation of mice. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Hospital pharmacy workforce in Brazil.

PubMed

Santos, Thiago R; Penm, Jonathan; Baldoni, André O; Ayres, Lorena Rocha; Moles, Rebekah; Sanches, Cristina

2018-01-04

This study aims to describe the distribution of the hospital pharmacy workforce in Brazil. Data were acquired, during 2016, through the Brazilian National Database of Healthcare Facilities (CNES). The following variables were extracted: hospital name, registry number, telephone, e-mail, state, type of institution, subtype, management nature, ownership, presence of research/teaching activities, complexity level, number of hospital beds, presence of pharmacists, number of pharmacists, pharmacist specialization. All statistical analyses were performed by IBM SPSS v.19. The number of hospitals with a complete registry in the national database was 4790. The majority were general hospitals (77.9%), managed by municipalities (66.1%), under public administration (44.0%), had no research/teaching activities (90.5%), classified as medium complexity (71.6%), and had no pharmacist in their team (50.6%). Furthermore, almost 60.0% of hospitals did not comply with the minimum recommendations of having a pharmacist per 50 hospital beds. The Southeast region had the highest prevalence of pharmacists, with 64.4% of hospitals having a pharmaceutical professional. This may have occurred as this region had the highest population to hospital ratio. Non-profit hospitals were more likely to have pharmacists compared to those under public administration and private hospitals. This study mapped the hospital pharmacy workforce in Brazil, showing a higher prevalence of hospital pharmacists in the Southeast region, and in non-profit specialized hospitals.

Effects of Lewis number on the statistics of the invariants of the velocity gradient tensor and local flow topologies in turbulent premixed flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wacks, Daniel; Konstantinou, Ilias; Chakraborty, Nilanjan

2018-04-01

The behaviours of the three invariants of the velocity gradient tensor and the resultant local flow topologies in turbulent premixed flames have been analysed using three-dimensional direct numerical simulation data for different values of the characteristic Lewis number ranging from 0.34 to 1.2. The results have been analysed to reveal the statistical behaviours of the invariants and the flow topologies conditional upon the reaction progress variable. The behaviours of the invariants have been explained in terms of the relative strengths of the thermal and mass diffusions, embodied by the influence of the Lewis number on turbulent premixed combustion. Similarly, the behaviours of the flow topologies have been explained in terms not only of the Lewis number but also of the likelihood of the occurrence of individual flow topologies in the different flame regions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the joint probability density function of the second and third invariants and the joint probability density functions of the mean and Gaussian curvatures to the variation in Lewis number have similarly been examined. Finally, the dependences of the scalar-turbulence interaction term on augmented heat release and of the vortex-stretching term on flame-induced turbulence have been explained in terms of the Lewis number, flow topology and reaction progress variable.

Effects of Lewis number on the statistics of the invariants of the velocity gradient tensor and local flow topologies in turbulent premixed flames

PubMed Central

Konstantinou, Ilias; Chakraborty, Nilanjan

2018-01-01

The behaviours of the three invariants of the velocity gradient tensor and the resultant local flow topologies in turbulent premixed flames have been analysed using three-dimensional direct numerical simulation data for different values of the characteristic Lewis number ranging from 0.34 to 1.2. The results have been analysed to reveal the statistical behaviours of the invariants and the flow topologies conditional upon the reaction progress variable. The behaviours of the invariants have been explained in terms of the relative strengths of the thermal and mass diffusions, embodied by the influence of the Lewis number on turbulent premixed combustion. Similarly, the behaviours of the flow topologies have been explained in terms not only of the Lewis number but also of the likelihood of the occurrence of individual flow topologies in the different flame regions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the joint probability density function of the second and third invariants and the joint probability density functions of the mean and Gaussian curvatures to the variation in Lewis number have similarly been examined. Finally, the dependences of the scalar--turbulence interaction term on augmented heat release and of the vortex-stretching term on flame-induced turbulence have been explained in terms of the Lewis number, flow topology and reaction progress variable. PMID:29740257

Sample size and allocation of effort in point count sampling of birds in bottomland hardwood forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W.P.; Twedt, D.J.; Cooper, R.J.; Wiedenfeld, D.A.; Hamel, P.B.; Ford, R.P.; Ralph, C. John; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1995-01-01

To examine sample size requirements and optimum allocation of effort in point count sampling of bottomland hardwood forests, we computed minimum sample sizes from variation recorded during 82 point counts (May 7-May 16, 1992) from three localities containing three habitat types across three regions of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV). Also, we estimated the effect of increasing the number of points or visits by comparing results of 150 four-minute point counts obtained from each of four stands on Delta Experimental Forest (DEF) during May 8-May 21, 1991 and May 30-June 12, 1992. For each stand, we obtained bootstrap estimates of mean cumulative number of species each year from all possible combinations of six points and six visits. ANOVA was used to model cumulative species as a function of number of points visited, number of visits to each point, and interaction of points and visits. There was significant variation in numbers of birds and species between regions and localities (nested within region); neither habitat, nor the interaction between region and habitat, was significant. For a = 0.05 and a = 0.10, minimum sample size estimates (per factor level) varied by orders of magnitude depending upon the observed or specified range of desired detectable difference. For observed regional variation, 20 and 40 point counts were required to accommodate variability in total individuals (MSE = 9.28) and species (MSE = 3.79), respectively, whereas ? 25 percent of the mean could be achieved with five counts per factor level. Sample size sufficient to detect actual differences of Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) was >200, whereas the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea) required <10 counts. Differences in mean cumulative species were detected among number of points visited and among number of visits to a point. In the lower MAV, mean cumulative species increased with each added point through five points and with each additional visit through four visits. Although no interaction was detected between number of points and number of visits, when paired reciprocals were compared, more points invariably yielded a significantly greater cumulative number of species than more visits to a point. Still, 36 point counts per stand during each of two breeding seasons detected only 52 percent of the known available species pool in DEF.

Chromosome number, microsporogenesis, microgametogenesis, and pollen viability in the Brazilian native grass Mesosetum chaseae (Poaceae).

PubMed

Silva, L A C; Pagliarini, M S; Santos, S A; Silva, N; Souza, V F

2012-11-28

The genus Mesosetum is a primarily South American genus with 42 species. Mesosetum chaseae, regionally known as 'grama-do-cerrado', is abundant in the Pantanal Matogrossense (Brazil); it is a valuable resource for livestock and for environmental conservation. We collected specimens from the Nhecolandia sub-region of the Brazilian Pantanal, located in Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. We examined chromosome number, ploidy level, meiotic behavior, microgametogenesis, and pollen viability of 10 accessions. All the accessions were diploid, derived from x = 8, presenting 2n = 2x = 16 chromosomes. Chromosomes paired as bivalents showing, predominantly, two terminal chiasmata. Interstitial chiasmata were rare. Meiosis was quite normal producing only a few abnormal tetrads in some accessions. Microgametogenesis, after two mitotic divisions, produced three-celled pollen grains. Pollen viability was variable among plant and accessions and was not correlated with meiotic abnormalities.

An analysis of simulated and observed storm characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.

2010-09-01

A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method has been applied to the most recent re-analysis (ERAINT) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and results from regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The storm frequency for events with central pressure below a threshold value of 960-990hPa were examined, and the gradient wind from the simulated storm systems were compared with corresponding estimates from the re-analysis. The analysis also yielded estimates for the spatial extent of the storm systems, which was also included in the regional climate model cyclone evaluation. A comparison is presented between a number of RCMs and the ERAINT re-analysis in terms of their description of the gradient winds, number of cyclones, and spatial extent. Furthermore, a comparison between geostrophic wind estimated though triangules of interpolated or station measurements of SLP is presented. Wind still represents one of the more challenging variables to model realistically.

Assessing the Change in Rainfall Characteristics and Trends for the Southern African ITCZ Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumberg, Verena; Weber, Torsten; Helmschrot, Jörg

2015-04-01

Southern Africa is strongly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) thus determining the climate in this region with distinct seasonal and inter-annual rainfall dynamics. The amount and variability of rainfall affect the various ecosystems by controlling the hydrological system, regulating water availability and determining agricultural practices. Changes in rainfall characteristics potentially caused by climate change are of uppermost relevance for both ecosystem functioning and human well-being in this region and, thus, need to be investigated. To analyse the rainfall variability governed by the ITCZ in southern Africa, observational daily rainfall datasets with a high spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° (about 28 km x 28 km) from satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used. These datasets extend from 1998 to 2008 and 1948 to 2010, respectively, and allow for the assessment of rainfall characteristics over different spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, a comparison of TRMM and GLDAS and, where available, with observed data will be made to determine the differences of both datasets. In order to quantify the intra- and inner-annual variability of rainfall, the amount of total rainfall, duration of rainy seasons and number of dry spells along with further indices are calculated from the observational datasets. Over the southern African ITCZ region, the rainfall characteristics change moving from wetter north to the drier south, but also from west to east, i.e. the coast to the interior. To address expected spatial and temporal variabilities, the assessment of changes in the rainfall parameters will be carried out for different transects in zonal and meridional directions over the region affected by the ITCZ. Revealing trends over more than 60 years, the results will help to identify and understand potential impacts of climate change on rainfall characteristics for the southern African ITCZ region. The findings of this study will feed into various ecosystem assessment and biodiversity change studies in Angola and Zambia.

On the dynamics of the Sri Lanka Dome in the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Jessica M.; Subrahmanyam, Bulusu; Murty, V. S. N.

2017-09-01

East of Sri Lanka, in the northern Indian Ocean, a cold dome, known as the Sri Lanka Dome (SLD), develops during southwest monsoon season (June-September). The SLD first forms around May, matures in July, and decays around September, in association with the strong cyclonic wind stress curl. In this study, the structure and dynamics of SLD in response to the climatic events such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are examined. Our results reveal that these climatic events modulated the subsurface temperature variability in the thermocline at ˜100 m depth, whose signature was also evident in the satellite-derived sea surface height (SSH) anomaly in the SLD region. We find that the mechanisms for the formation of SLD are consistent with previous research, and there is year-to-year variability in the SLD dynamics. This study also reveals that the atmospheric parameters including vertical wind shear and midtropospheric relative humidity are high over the SLD region and adjacent southern Bay of Bengal and show an upward (increasing) trend over the decades. This has impacted the atmospheric parameters over the northern Bay of Bengal over the decades and as a consequence the total number of monsoon depressions (June-September) decreased over the decades from 1980 to 2015, as reported by the India Meteorological Department, New Delhi. Thus, the new insight emerged from this study is the variability in the cyclogenesis and the occurrence of total number of monsoon depressions over northern Bay of Bengal over the decades is much related to the SLD dynamics.

The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM): A multi-scale, variable-complexity hydrological model for cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

There is a need for hydrological land surface schemes that can link to atmospheric models, provide hydrological prediction at multiple scales and guide the development of multiple objective water predictive systems. Distributed raster-based models suffer from an overrepresentation of topography, leading to wasted computational effort that increases uncertainty due to greater numbers of parameters and initial conditions. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) is a modular, multiphysics, spatially distributed modelling framework designed for representing hydrological processes, including those that operate in cold-regions. Unstructured meshes permit variable spatial resolution, allowing coarse resolutions at low spatial variability and fine resolutions as required. Model uncertainty is reduced by lessening the necessary computational elements relative to high-resolution rasters. CHM uses a novel multi-objective approach for unstructured triangular mesh generation that fulfills hydrologically important constraints (e.g., basin boundaries, water bodies, soil classification, land cover, elevation, and slope/aspect). This provides an efficient spatial representation of parameters and initial conditions, as well as well-formed and well-graded triangles that are suitable for numerical discretization. CHM uses high-quality open source libraries and high performance computing paradigms to provide a framework that allows for integrating current state-of-the-art process algorithms. The impact of changes to model structure, including individual algorithms, parameters, initial conditions, driving meteorology, and spatial/temporal discretization can be easily tested. Initial testing of CHM compared spatial scales and model complexity for a spring melt period at a sub-arctic mountain basin. The meshing algorithm reduced the total number of computational elements and preserved the spatial heterogeneity of predictions.

Acoustic wave propagation in a temporal evolving shear-layer for low-Mach number perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hau, Jan-Niklas; Müller, Björn

2018-01-01

We study wave packets with the small perturbation/gradient Mach number interacting with a smooth shear-layer in the linear regime of small amplitude perturbations. In particular, we investigate the temporal evolution of wave packets in shear-layers with locally curved regions of variable size using non-modal linear analysis and direct numerical simulations of the two-dimensional gas-dynamical equations. Depending on the wavenumber of the initially imposed wave packet, three different types of behavior are observed: (i) The wave packet passes through the shear-layer and constantly transfers energy back to the mean flow. (ii) It is turned around (or reflected) within the sheared region and extracts energy from the base flow. (iii) It is split into two oppositely propagating packages when reaching the upper boundary of the linearly sheared region. The conducted direct numerical simulations confirm that non-modal linear stability analysis is able to predict the wave packet dynamics, even in the presence of non-linearly sheared regions. In the light of existing studies in this area, we conclude that the sheared regions are responsible for the highly directed propagation of linearly generated acoustic waves when there is a dominating source, as it is the case for jet flows.

Differentiation of Populus species using chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers--essential for comprehensible and reliable poplar breeding.

PubMed

Schroeder, H; Hoeltken, A M; Fladung, M

2012-03-01

Within the genus Populus several species belonging to different sections are cross-compatible. Hence, high numbers of interspecies hybrids occur naturally and, additionally, have been artificially produced in huge breeding programmes during the last 100 years. Therefore, determination of a single poplar species, used for the production of 'multi-species hybrids' is often difficult, and represents a great challenge for the use of molecular markers in species identification. Within this study, over 20 chloroplast regions, both intergenic spacers and coding regions, have been tested for their ability to differentiate different poplar species using 23 already published barcoding primer combinations and 17 newly designed primer combinations. About half of the published barcoding primers yielded amplification products, whereas the new primers designed on the basis of the total sequenced cpDNA genome of Populus trichocarpa Torr. & Gray yielded much higher amplification success. Intergenic spacers were found to be more variable than coding regions within the genus Populus. The highest discrimination power of Populus species was found in the combination of two intergenic spacers (trnG-psbK, psbK-psbl) and the coding region rpoC. In barcoding projects, the coding regions matK and rbcL are often recommended, but within the genus Populus they only show moderate variability and are not efficient in species discrimination. © 2011 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Polypharmacy and Polymorbidity in Older Adults in Brazil: a public health challenge

PubMed Central

Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Luiza, Vera Lucia; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Arrais, Paulo Sérgio Dourado; Mengue, Sotero Serrate

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze variations in the prevalence of chronic use of medicines by older adults in Brazil according to its possible association with the most prevalent chronic diseases and demographic and health factors, and to identify risk factors for polypharmacy. METHODS A study based on data from the National Survey on Access, Use and Promotion of Rational Use of Medicines (PNAUM), a cross-sectional, population-based survey with probability sampling in Brazilian urban areas. The independent variable was the number of chronic-use medicines taken by older adults, linked to eight chronic diseases investigated. The intervening variables were gender, age group, marital status, level of education, socioeconomic status, Brazilian region, body mass index, smoking, self-perceived health, hospitalization in the previous year and having health insurance, besides the investigated chronic diseases. A multivariable analysis identified risk factors for polypharmacy. RESULTS Prevalence of at least one chronic-use medicines among older adults was 93.0%. Of the total number of older adults, 18.0% used at least five medications (polypharmacy). Polypharmacy was higher among the oldest individuals (20.0%), in the South region (25.0%), in those with poor self-perceived health (35.0%), in obese individuals (26.0%), in those with reported health insurance (23.0%) or hospitalization in the previous year (31.0%), and among those who reported any of the investigated diseases, particularly diabetes (36.0%) and heart diseases (43.0%). The variables remaining in the final risk model for polypharmacy were age, region, perceived health, health insurance, hospitalization in the previous year and all investigated diseases except stroke. CONCLUSIONS Older adults with specific diseases have risk factors for polypharmacy modifiable by actions aimed at the rational use of medicines. With the current population aging and successful drug access policy, the trend is an increase in drug use by older adults, which should feature as a priority in the planning agenda of the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). PMID:27982377

E-health: determinants, opportunities, challenges and the way forward for countries in the WHO African Region.

PubMed

Kirigia, Joses M; Seddoh, Anthony; Gatwiri, Doris; Muthuri, Lenity H K; Seddoh, Janet

2005-12-20

The implementation of the 58th World Health Assembly resolution on e-health will pose a major challenge for the Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region due to lack of information and communications technology (ICT) and mass Internet connectivity, compounded by a paucity of ICT-related knowledge and skills. The key objectives of this article are to: (i) explore the key determinants of personal computers (PCs), telephone mainline and cellular and Internet penetration/connectivity in the African Region; and (ii) to propose actions needed to create an enabling environment for e-health services growth and utilization in the Region. The effects of school enrolment, per capita income and governance variables on the number of PCs, telephone mainlines, cellular phone subscribers and Internet users were estimated using a double-log regression model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries that comprise the Region. The data were obtained from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) sources. There were a number of main findings: (i) the adult literacy and total number of Internet users had a statistically significant (at 5% level in a t-distribution test) positive effect on the number of PCs in a country; (ii) the combined school enrolment rate and per capita income had a statistically significant direct effect on the number of telephone mainlines and cellular telephone subscribers; (iii) the regulatory quality had statistically significant negative effect on the number of telephone mainlines; (iv) similarly, the combined school enrolment ratio and the number of telephone mainlines had a statistically significant positive relationship with Internet usage; and (v) there were major inequalities in ICT connectivity between upper-middle, lower-middle and low income countries in the Region. By focusing on the adoption of specific technologies we attempted to interpret correlates in terms of relationships instead of absolute "causals". In order to improve access to health care, especially for the majority of Africans living in remote rural areas, there is need to boost the availability and utilization of e-health services. Thus, universal access to e-health ought to be a vision for all countries in the African Region. Each country ought to develop a road map in a strategic e-health plan that will, over time, enable its citizens to realize that vision.

E-health: Determinants, opportunities, challenges and the way forward for countries in the WHO African Region

PubMed Central

Kirigia, Joses M; Seddoh, Anthony; Gatwiri, Doris; Muthuri, Lenity HK; Seddoh, Janet

2005-01-01

Background The implementation of the 58th World Health Assembly resolution on e-health will pose a major challenge for the Member States of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region due to lack of information and communications technology (ICT) and mass Internet connectivity, compounded by a paucity of ICT-related knowledge and skills. The key objectives of this article are to: (i) explore the key determinants of personal computers (PCs), telephone mainline and cellular and Internet penetration/connectivity in the African Region; and (ii) to propose actions needed to create an enabling environment for e-health services growth and utilization in the Region. Methods The effects of school enrolment, per capita income and governance variables on the number of PCs, telephone mainlines, cellular phone subscribers and Internet users were estimated using a double-log regression model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries that comprise the Region. The data were obtained from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) sources. Results There were a number of main findings: (i) the adult literacy and total number of Internet users had a statistically significant (at 5% level in a t-distribution test) positive effect on the number of PCs in a country; (ii) the combined school enrolment rate and per capita income had a statistically significant direct effect on the number of telephone mainlines and cellular telephone subscribers; (iii) the regulatory quality had statistically significant negative effect on the number of telephone mainlines; (iv) similarly, the combined school enrolment ratio and the number of telephone mainlines had a statistically significant positive relationship with Internet usage; and (v) there were major inequalities in ICT connectivity between upper-middle, lower-middle and low income countries in the Region. By focusing on the adoption of specific technologies we attempted to interpret correlates in terms of relationships instead of absolute "causals". Conclusion In order to improve access to health care, especially for the majority of Africans living in remote rural areas, there is need to boost the availability and utilization of e-health services. Thus, universal access to e-health ought to be a vision for all countries in the African Region. Each country ought to develop a road map in a strategic e-health plan that will, over time, enable its citizens to realize that vision. PMID:16364186

[Homicides involving firearms in Argentina between 1991 and 2006: a multilevel analysis].

PubMed

Zunino, Marina Gabriela; Diez Roux, Ana Victoria; de Souza, Edinilsa Ramos

2012-12-01

The influence of variables at different levels of organization and the effect of time on the occurrence of firearm-related homicides (FRH) in Argentina between 1991 and 2006 was analyzed using multilevel analysis. A three-level Poisson regression model was used. The first level corresponded to the distribution of the number of FRH by sex and age group for each administrative region and (four-year) period; the second corresponded to the variation over time in the interior of each administrative region; the third modeled the variation between administrative regions in accordance with the Level of Urbanization, Percentage of Homes with Unsatisfied Basic Needs and the Percentage of Working Adults. There were 15,067 FRH in persons aged 14 and over between 1991 and 2006 in the 493 administrative regions. The risk of death was higher in males and persons of 15 to 29 years of age; ages above that were associated with a lower risk. The influence of age was greater in central-urban zones and between 1999 and 2002 than during other periods. The level of urbanization was the socioeconomic variable most strongly associated with FRH risk. The risk of death from FRH was 1.6 times higher in central-urban zones compared with non-central zones. In both zones, the risk was highest between 1999 and 2002.

Turbulent mass flux closure modeling for variable density turbulence in the wake of an air-entraining transom stern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrickson, Kelli; Yue, Dick

2016-11-01

This work presents the development and a priori testing of closure models for the incompressible highly-variable density turbulent (IHVDT) flow in the near wake region of a transom stern. This complex, three-dimensional flow includes three regions with distinctly different flow behavior: (i) the convergent corner waves that originate from the body and collide on the ship center plane; (ii) the "rooster tail" that forms from the collision; and (iii) the diverging wave train. The characteristics of these regions involve violent free-surface flows and breaking waves with significant turbulent mass flux (TMF) at Atwood number At = (ρ2 -ρ1) / (ρ2 +ρ1) 1 for which there is little guidance in turbulence closure modeling for the momentum and scalar transport along the wake. Utilizing datasets from high-resolution simulations of the near wake of a canonical three-dimensional transom stern using conservative Volume-of-Fluid (cVOF), implicit Large Eddy Simulation (iLES), and Boundary Data Immersion Method (BDIM), we develop explicit algebraic turbulent mass flux closure models that incorporate the most relevant physical processes. Performance of these models in predicting the turbulent mass flux in all three regions of the wake will be presented. Office of Naval Research.

The Identification of Microdeletion and Reciprocal Microduplication in 22q11.2 Using High-Resolution CMA Technology

PubMed Central

Leite, Ana Julia Cunha; Pinto, Irene Plaza; Cunha, Damiana Mirian da Cruz e; Ribeiro, Cristiano Luiz; da Silva, Claudio Carlos; da Cruz, Aparecido Divino; Minasi, Lysa Bernardes

2016-01-01

The chromosome 22q11.2 region has long been implicated in genomic diseases. Some genomic regions exhibit numerous low copy repeats with high identity in which they provide increased genomic instability and mediate deletions and duplications in many disorders. DiGeorge Syndrome is the most common deletion syndrome and reciprocal duplications could be occurring in half of the frequency of microdeletions. We described five patients with phenotypic variability that carries deletions or reciprocal duplications at 22q11.2 detected by Chromosomal Microarray Analysis. The CytoScan HD technology was used to detect changes in the genome copy number variation of patients who had clinical indication to global developmental delay and a normal karyotype. We observed in our study three microdeletions and two microduplications in 22q11.2 region with variable intervals containing known genes and unstudied transcripts as well as the LCRs that are often flanking and within this genomic rearrangement. The identification of these variants is of particular interest because it may provide insight into genes or genomic regions that are crucial for specific phenotypic manifestations and are useful to assist in the quest for understanding the mechanisms subjacent to genomic deletions and duplications. PMID:27123452

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) variety discrimination and hybridization analysis based on the 5S rRNA region.

PubMed

Sun, Yan-Lin; Kang, Ho-Min; Kim, Young-Sik; Baek, Jun-Pill; Zheng, Shi-Lin; Xiang, Jin-Jun; Hong, Soon-Kwan

2014-05-04

The tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum ) is a major vegetable crop worldwide. To satisfy popular demand, more than 500 tomato varieties have been bred. However, a clear variety identification has not been found. Thorough understanding of the phylogenetic relationship and hybridization information of tomato varieties is very important for further variety breeding. Thus, in this study, we collected 26 tomato varieties and attempted to distinguish them based on the 5S rRNA region, which is widely used in the determination of phylogenetic relations. Sequence analysis of the 5S rRNA region suggested that a large number of nucleotide variations exist among tomato varieties. These variable nucleotide sites were also informative regarding hybridization. Chromas sequencing of Yellow Mountain View and Seuwiteuking varieties indicated three and one variable nucleotide sites in the non-transcribed spacer (NTS) of the 5S rRNA region showing hybridization, respectively. Based on a phylogenetic tree constructed using the 5S rRNA sequences, we observed that 16 tomato varieties were divided into three groups at 95% similarity. Rubiking and Sseommeoking, Lang Selection Procedure and Seuwiteuking, and Acorn Gold and Yellow Mountain View exhibited very high identity with their partners. This work will aid variety authentication and provides a basis for further tomato variety breeding.

Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Effects of Climatic Variables on Dugong Calf Production

PubMed Central

Fuentes, Mariana M. P. B.; Delean, Steven; Grayson, Jillian; Lavender, Sally; Logan, Murray; Marsh, Helene

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the relationships between environmental forcing and demographic parameters is important for predicting responses from climatic changes and to manage populations effectively. We explore the relationships between the proportion of sea cows (Dugong dugon) classified as calves and four climatic drivers (rainfall anomaly, Southern Oscillation El Niño Index [SOI], NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature index, and number of tropical cyclones) at a range of spatially distinct locations in Queensland, Australia, a region with relatively high dugong density. Dugong and calf data were obtained from standardized aerial surveys conducted along the study region. A range of lagged versions of each of the focal climatic drivers (1 to 4 years) were included in a global model containing the proportion of calves in each population crossed with each of the lagged versions of the climatic drivers to explore relationships. The relative influence of each predictor was estimated via Gibbs variable selection. The relationships between the proportion of dependent calves and the climatic drivers varied spatially and temporally, with climatic drivers influencing calf counts at sub-regional scales. Thus we recommend that the assessment of and management response to indirect climatic threats on dugongs should also occur at sub-regional scales. PMID:27355367

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

Amenable mortality as a performance indicator of Italian health-care services

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Mortality amenable to health-care services (‘amenable mortality’) has been defined as “premature deaths that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care” and as “conditions for which effective clinical interventions exist.” We analyzed the regional variability in health-care services using amenable mortality as a performance indicator. Convergent validity was examined against other indicators, such as health expenditure, GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, disability-free life expectancy at age 15, number of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Methods Amenable mortality rate was calculated as the average annual number of deaths in the population aged 0–74 years per 100,000 inhabitants, and it was then stratified by gender and region. Data were drawn from national mortality statistics for the period 2006–08. Results During the study period (2006–08), the age-standardized death rate (SDR) amenable to health-care services in Italy was 62.6 per 100,000 inhabitants: 66.0 per 100,000 for males and 59.1 per 100,000 for females. Significant regional variations ranged from 54.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in Alto Adige to 76.3 per 100,000 in Campania. Regional variability in SDR was examined separately for male and females. The variability proved to be statistically significant for both males and females (males: Q-test = 638.5, p < 0.001; females: Q-test = 700.1, p < 0.001). However, among men, we found a clear-cut divide in SDR values between Central and Southern Italy; among women, this divide was less pronounced. Amenable mortality was negatively correlated with life expectancy at birth for both genders (male: r = −0.64, p = 0.002; female: r = −0.88, p <0.001) and with disability-free life expectancy at age 15 (male: r = −0.70, p <0.001; female: r = −0.67, p <0.001). Amenable mortality displayed a statistically significant negative relationship with GDP per capita, the quantity of diagnostic and laboratory tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the prevalence of cancer. Conclusions Amenable mortality shows a wide variation across Italian regions and an inverse relationship with life expectancy and GDP per capita, as expected. PMID:22963259

Surfing wave climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Defining seascapes for marine unconsolidated shelf sediments in an eastern boundary upwelling region: The southern Benguela as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karenyi, Natasha; Sink, Kerry; Nel, Ronel

2016-02-01

Marine unconsolidated sediment habitats, the largest benthic ecosystem, are considered physically controlled ecosystems driven by a number of local physical processes. Depth and sediment type are recognised key drivers of these ecosystems. Seascape (i.e., marine landscape) habitat classifications are based solely on consistent geophysical features and provide an opportunity to define unconsolidated sediment habitats based on processes which may vary in distribution through space and time. This paper aimed to classify unconsolidated sediment seascapes and explore their diversity in an eastern boundary upwelling region at the macro-scale, using the South African west coast as a case study. Physical variables such as sediment grain size, depth and upwelling-related variables (i.e., maximum chlorophyll concentration, austral summer bottom oxygen concentration and sediment organic carbon content) were included in the analyses. These variables were directly measured through sampling, or collated from existing databases and the literature. These data were analysed using multivariate Cluster, Principal Components Ordination and SIMPER analyses (in PRIMER 6 + with PERMANOVA add-in package). There were four main findings; (i) eight seascapes were identified for the South African west coast based on depth, slope, sediment grain size and upwelling-related variables, (ii) three depth zones were distinguished (inner, middle and outer shelf), (iii) seascape diversity in the inner and middle shelves was greater than the outer shelf, and (iv) upwelling-related variables were responsible for the habitat diversity in both inner and middle shelves. This research demonstrates that the inclusion of productivity and its related variables, such as hypoxia and sedimentary organic carbon, in seascape classifications will enhance the ability to distinguish seascapes on continental shelves, where productivity is most variable.

Regional differences in infant 25-Hydroxyvitamin D: Pilot study of the Japan Environment and Children's Study.

PubMed

Ayabe, Tadayuki; Yamamoto-Hanada, Kiwako; Mezawa, Hidetoshi; Konishi, Mizuho; Ishitsuka, Kazue; Saito, Mayako; Fukami, Maki; Michikawa, Takehiro; Yamazaki, Shin; Senju, Ayako; Kusuhara, Koichi; Kawamoto, Toshihiro; Sanefuji, Masafumi; Kato, Kiyoko; Oda, Masako; Mitsubuchi, Hiroshi; Katoh, Takahiko; Monden, Yukifumi; Mise, Nathan; Kayama, Fujio; Saito, Hirohisa; Ohya, Yukihiro

2018-01-01

In recent years, a resurgence in the number of infants with vitamin D deficiency has been noted. In addition to seasonal differences in exposure to ultraviolet (UV) rays, regional differences in dietary habits and lifestyles may affect susceptibility to vitamin D deficiency. No studies have been conducted, however, on infants in multiple regions of Japan to determine the extent of differences in vitamin D status. 25-Hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) was measured on radioimmunoassay in 126 infants aged 2-4 years, who participated in the Pilot Study of the Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS) by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. A multiple regression model with 25OHD level as the outcome variable, and season and region as explanatory variables, was generated. Both region and season during which infants participated in this study significantly affected 25OHD level (P = 0.0087 and <0.0001, respectively; Wald test). Reflecting decreased exposure to UV rays, infants who were examined in winter had lower 25OHD than those examined in summer. Infants from both Fukuoka Prefecture (33°N) and Kumamoto Prefecture (32°N), however, had lower 25OHD than those from Tochigi Prefecture (36°N), contrary to expectations given the extent of UV exposure. Regional differences in daily habits and/or environmental factors affect 25OHD level in Japanese infants. The JECS is expected to identify those factors to provide guidance on preventing infantile vitamin D deficiency. © 2017 Japan Pediatric Society.

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

PubMed

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

2008-05-27

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

Cloud-to-ground lightning in Portugal: patterns and dynamical forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, J. A.; Reis, M. A.; Sousa, J.; Leite, S. M.; Correia, S.; Janeira, M.; Fragoso, M.

2012-03-01

An analysis of the cloud-to-ground discharges (CGD) over Portugal is carried out using data collected by a network of sensors maintained by the Portuguese Meteorological Institute for 2003-2009 (7 yr). Only cloud-to-ground flashes are considered and negative polarity CGD are largely dominant. The total number of discharges reveals a considerable interannual variability and a large irregularity in their distribution throughout the year. However, it is shown that a large number of discharges occur in the May-September period (71%), with a bimodal distribution that peaks in May and September, with most of the lightning activity recorded in the afternoon (from 16:00 to 18:00 UTC). In spring and autumn the lightning activity tends to be scattered throughout the country, whereas in summer it tends to be more concentrated over northeastern Portugal. Winter generally presents low lightning activity. Furthermore, two significant couplings between the monthly number of days with discharges and the large-scale atmospheric circulation are isolated: a regional forcing, predominantly in summer, and a remote forcing. In fact, the identification of daily lightning regimes revealed three important atmospheric conditions for triggering lightning activity: regional cut-off lows, cold troughs induced by remote low pressure systems and summertime regional low pressures at low-tropospheric levels combined with a mid-tropospheric cold trough.

Three-dimensional optic axis determination using variable-incidence-angle polarization-optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugryumova, Nadezhda; Gangnus, Sergei V.; Matcher, Stephen J.

2006-08-01

Polarization optical coherence tomography (PSOCT) is a powerful technique to nondestructively map the retardance and fast-axis orientation of birefringent biological tissues. Previous studies have concentrated on the case where the optic axis lies on the plane of the surface. We describe a method to determine the polar angle of the optic axis of a uniaxial birefringent tissue by making PSOCT measurements with a number of incident illumination directions. The method is validated on equine flexor tendon, yielding a variability of 4% for the true birefringence and 3% for the polar angle. We use the method to map the polar angle of fibers in the transitional region of equine cartilage.

Association of a Monoamine Oxidase-A Gene Promoter Polymorphism with ADHD and Anxiety in Boys with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roohi, Jasmin; DeVincent, Carla J.; Hatchwell, Eli; Gadow, Kenneth D.

2009-01-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the association between a variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) functional polymorphism in the promoter region of the MAO-A gene and severity of ADHD and anxiety in boys with ASD. Parents and teachers completed a DSM-IV-referenced rating scale for 5- to 14-year-old boys with ASD (n = 43). Planned…

Water Column Variability in Coastal Regions

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing...collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number 1 . REPORT DATE 30 SEP 1999 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED...images were used to detect and characterize the front between waters of the Bay and those of the Sound. Figure 1 illustrates the type of SST

A Framework for Orbital Performance Evaluation in Distributed Space Missions for Earth Observation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nag, Sreeja; LeMoigne-Stewart, Jacqueline; Miller, David W.; de Weck, Olivier

2015-01-01

Distributed Space Missions (DSMs) are gaining momentum in their application to earth science missions owing to their unique ability to increase observation sampling in spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions simultaneously. DSM architectures have a large number of design variables and since they are expected to increase mission flexibility, scalability, evolvability and robustness, their design is a complex problem with many variables and objectives affecting performance. There are very few open-access tools available to explore the tradespace of variables which allow performance assessment and are easy to plug into science goals, and therefore select the most optimal design. This paper presents a software tool developed on the MATLAB engine interfacing with STK, for DSM orbit design and selection. It is capable of generating thousands of homogeneous constellation or formation flight architectures based on pre-defined design variable ranges and sizing those architectures in terms of predefined performance metrics. The metrics can be input into observing system simulation experiments, as available from the science teams, allowing dynamic coupling of science and engineering designs. Design variables include but are not restricted to constellation type, formation flight type, FOV of instrument, altitude and inclination of chief orbits, differential orbital elements, leader satellites, latitudes or regions of interest, planes and satellite numbers. Intermediate performance metrics include angular coverage, number of accesses, revisit coverage, access deterioration over time at every point of the Earth's grid. The orbit design process can be streamlined and variables more bounded along the way, owing to the availability of low fidelity and low complexity models such as corrected HCW equations up to high precision STK models with J2 and drag. The tool can thus help any scientist or program manager select pre-Phase A, Pareto optimal DSM designs for a variety of science goals without having to delve into the details of the engineering design process.

The role of tropical cyclones in precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Christian; Magaña, Victor

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are essential elements of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical regions. In the present study, the contribution of TCs to seasonal precipitation around the tropical and subtropical North America is examined. When TC activity over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) or the Intra Americas Seas (IAS) is below (above-normal), regional precipitation may be below (above-normal). However, it is not only the number of TCs what may change seasonal precipitation, but the trajectory of the systems. TCs induce intense precipitation over continental regions if they are close enough to shorelines, for instance, if the TC center is located, on average, less than 500 km-distant from the coast. However, if TCs are more remote than this threshold distance, the chances of rain over continental regions decrease, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In addition, a distant TC may induce subsidence or produce moisture divergence that inhibits, at least for a few days, convective activity farther away than the threshold distance. An analysis of interannual variability in the TCs that produce precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America shows that some regions in northern Mexico, which mostly depend on this effect to undergo wet years, may experience seasonal negative anomalies in precipitation if TCs trajectories are remote. Therefore, TCs (activity and trajectories) are important modulators of climate variability on various time scales, either by producing intense rainfall or by inhibiting convection at distant regions from their trajectory. The impact of such variations on water availability in northern Mexico may be relevant, since water availability in dams recovers under the effects of TC rainfall. Seasonal precipitation forecasts or climate change scenarios for these regions should take into account the effect of TCs, if regional adaptation strategies are implemented.

Landscape, demographic and climatic associations with human West Nile virus occurrence regionally in 2012 in the United States of America.

PubMed

DeGroote, John P; Sugumaran, Ramanathan; Ecker, Mark

2014-11-01

After several years of low West Nile virus (WNV) occurrence in the United States of America (USA), 2012 witnessed large outbreaks in several parts of the country. In order to understand the outbreak dynamics, spatial clustering and landscape, demographic and climatic associations with WNV occurrence were investigated at a regional level in the USA. Previous research has demonstrated that there are a handful of prominent WNV mosquito vectors with varying ecological requirements responsible for WNV transmission in the USA. Published range maps of these important vectors were georeferenced and used to define eight functional ecological regions in the coterminous USA. The number of human WNV cases and human populations by county were attained in order to calculate a WNV rate for each county in 2012. Additionally, a binary value (high/low) was calculated for each county based on whether the county WNV rate was above or below the rate for the region it fell in. Global Moran's I and Anselin Local Moran's I statistics of spatial association were used per region to examine and visualize clustering of the WNV rate and the high/low rating. Spatial data on landscape, demographic and climatic variables were compiled and derived from a variety of sources and then investigated in relation to human WNV using both Spearman rho correlation coefficients and Poisson regression models. Findings demonstrated significant spatial clustering of WNV and substantial inter-regional differences in relationships between WNV occurrence and landscape, demographic and climatically related variables. The regional associations were consistent with the ecologies of the dominant vectors for those regions. The large outbreak in the Southeast region was preceded by higher than normal winter and spring precipitation followed by dry and hot conditions in the summer.

An efficient deterministic-probabilistic approach to modeling regional groundwater flow: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-01-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

An Efficient Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Modeling Regional Groundwater Flow: 1. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Chung-Cheng; Guymon, Gary L.

1990-07-01

An efficient probabilistic model is developed and cascaded with a deterministic model for predicting water table elevations in regional aquifers. The objective is to quantify model uncertainty where precise estimates of water table elevations may be required. The probabilistic model is based on the two-point probability method which only requires prior knowledge of uncertain variables mean and coefficient of variation. The two-point estimate method is theoretically developed and compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results of comparisons using hypothetical determinisitic problems indicate that the two-point estimate method is only generally valid for linear problems where the coefficients of variation of uncertain parameters (for example, storage coefficient and hydraulic conductivity) is small. The two-point estimate method may be applied to slightly nonlinear problems with good results, provided coefficients of variation are small. In such cases, the two-point estimate method is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo method provided the number of uncertain variables is less than eight.

What factors are affecting physician payment by acute care hospitals in rural Japan?

PubMed

Yamauchi, Kazushi; Funada, Takao; Shimizu, Hiroshi; Kawahara, Kazuo

2007-03-01

The regional discrepancies of physician supply have been a growing concern in Japan. To find out how hospitals are responding in terms of physician payment (by monthly salaries and additional benefits), we conducted a survey of acute care hospitals in Yamagata, Japan. We asked about the salary and additional benefits of full-time physicians and the structural and functional characteristics of health care service provision. From these data we set out to assemble a model that can explain effectively the variability of physician payment in acute care hospitals within the prefecture. We found that physician payment was associated with variables such as type of management, staff employed per bed, full time doctors employed per bed and average length of stay. Hospital location was found to have a significant effect on payment. Variables expressing workload, like number of in-patients per doctor and number of surgical operations per doctor were inversely related. Our results suggest that hospitals may have adapted to physician preferences of workplace in terms of physician payment. To further address the problems of unbalanced geographic distribution of physicians in rural areas, work-sharing and educational and technical support schemes may also help.

Searches for supersymmetry using the M$$_{T2}$$ variable in hadronic events produced in pp collisions at 8 TeV

DOE PAGES

Khachatryan, V.

2015-05-15

Searches for supersymmetry (SUSY) are performed using a sample of hadronic events produced in 8 TeV pp collisions at the CERN LHC. The searches are based on the Mmore » $$_{T2}$$ variable, which is a measure of the transverse momentum imbalance in an event. The data were collected with the CMS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.5 fb 1. Two related searches are performed. The first is an inclusive search based on signal regions defined by the value of the M$$_{T2}$$ variable, the hadronic energy in the event, the jet multiplicity, and the number of jets identified as originating from bottom quarks. The second is a search for a mass peak corresponding to a Higgs boson decaying to a bottom quark-antiquark pair, where the Higgs boson is produced as a decay product of a SUSY particle. For both searches, the principal backgrounds are evaluated with data control samples. No significant excess over the expected number of background events is observed, and exclusion limits on various SUSY models are derived.« less

Chromosomal Copy Number Variation in Saccharomyces pastorianus Is Evidence for Extensive Genome Dynamics in Industrial Lager Brewing Strains.

PubMed

van den Broek, M; Bolat, I; Nijkamp, J F; Ramos, E; Luttik, M A H; Koopman, F; Geertman, J M; de Ridder, D; Pronk, J T; Daran, J-M

2015-09-01

Lager brewing strains of Saccharomyces pastorianus are natural interspecific hybrids originating from the spontaneous hybridization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces eubayanus. Over the past 500 years, S. pastorianus has been domesticated to become one of the most important industrial microorganisms. Production of lager-type beers requires a set of essential phenotypes, including the ability to ferment maltose and maltotriose at low temperature, the production of flavors and aromas, and the ability to flocculate. Understanding of the molecular basis of complex brewing-related phenotypic traits is a prerequisite for rational strain improvement. While genome sequences have been reported, the variability and dynamics of S. pastorianus genomes have not been investigated in detail. Here, using deep sequencing and chromosome copy number analysis, we showed that S. pastorianus strain CBS1483 exhibited extensive aneuploidy. This was confirmed by quantitative PCR and by flow cytometry. As a direct consequence of this aneuploidy, a massive number of sequence variants was identified, leading to at least 1,800 additional protein variants in S. pastorianus CBS1483. Analysis of eight additional S. pastorianus strains revealed that the previously defined group I strains showed comparable karyotypes, while group II strains showed large interstrain karyotypic variability. Comparison of three strains with nearly identical genome sequences revealed substantial chromosome copy number variation, which may contribute to strain-specific phenotypic traits. The observed variability of lager yeast genomes demonstrates that systematic linking of genotype to phenotype requires a three-dimensional genome analysis encompassing physical chromosomal structures, the copy number of individual chromosomes or chromosomal regions, and the allelic variation of copies of individual genes. Copyright © 2015, van den Broek et al.

Chromosomal Copy Number Variation in Saccharomyces pastorianus Is Evidence for Extensive Genome Dynamics in Industrial Lager Brewing Strains

PubMed Central

van den Broek, M.; Bolat, I.; Nijkamp, J. F.; Ramos, E.; Luttik, M. A. H.; Koopman, F.; Geertman, J. M.; de Ridder, D.; Pronk, J. T.

2015-01-01

Lager brewing strains of Saccharomyces pastorianus are natural interspecific hybrids originating from the spontaneous hybridization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces eubayanus. Over the past 500 years, S. pastorianus has been domesticated to become one of the most important industrial microorganisms. Production of lager-type beers requires a set of essential phenotypes, including the ability to ferment maltose and maltotriose at low temperature, the production of flavors and aromas, and the ability to flocculate. Understanding of the molecular basis of complex brewing-related phenotypic traits is a prerequisite for rational strain improvement. While genome sequences have been reported, the variability and dynamics of S. pastorianus genomes have not been investigated in detail. Here, using deep sequencing and chromosome copy number analysis, we showed that S. pastorianus strain CBS1483 exhibited extensive aneuploidy. This was confirmed by quantitative PCR and by flow cytometry. As a direct consequence of this aneuploidy, a massive number of sequence variants was identified, leading to at least 1,800 additional protein variants in S. pastorianus CBS1483. Analysis of eight additional S. pastorianus strains revealed that the previously defined group I strains showed comparable karyotypes, while group II strains showed large interstrain karyotypic variability. Comparison of three strains with nearly identical genome sequences revealed substantial chromosome copy number variation, which may contribute to strain-specific phenotypic traits. The observed variability of lager yeast genomes demonstrates that systematic linking of genotype to phenotype requires a three-dimensional genome analysis encompassing physical chromosomal structures, the copy number of individual chromosomes or chromosomal regions, and the allelic variation of copies of individual genes. PMID:26150454

Identification of copy number variation in French dairy and beef breeds using next-generation sequencing.

PubMed

Letaief, Rabia; Rebours, Emmanuelle; Grohs, Cécile; Meersseman, Cédric; Fritz, Sébastien; Trouilh, Lidwine; Esquerré, Diane; Barbieri, Johanna; Klopp, Christophe; Philippe, Romain; Blanquet, Véronique; Boichard, Didier; Rocha, Dominique; Boussaha, Mekki

2017-10-24

Copy number variations (CNV) are known to play a major role in genetic variability and disease pathogenesis in several species including cattle. In this study, we report the identification and characterization of CNV in eight French beef and dairy breeds using whole-genome sequence data from 200 animals. Bioinformatics analyses to search for CNV were carried out using four different but complementary tools and we validated a subset of the CNV by both in silico and experimental approaches. We report the identification and localization of 4178 putative deletion-only, duplication-only and CNV regions, which cover 6% of the bovine autosomal genome; they were validated by two in silico approaches and/or experimentally validated using array-based comparative genomic hybridization and single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping arrays. The size of these variants ranged from 334 bp to 7.7 Mb, with an average size of ~ 54 kb. Of these 4178 variants, 3940 were deletions, 67 were duplications and 171 corresponded to both deletions and duplications, which were defined as potential CNV regions. Gene content analysis revealed that, among these variants, 1100 deletions and duplications encompassed 1803 known genes, which affect a wide spectrum of molecular functions, and 1095 overlapped with known QTL regions. Our study is a large-scale survey of CNV in eight French dairy and beef breeds. These CNV will be useful to study the link between genetic variability and economically important traits, and to improve our knowledge on the genomic architecture of cattle.

HIST-EU - a dataset of European relevance, a database to enable long-term climate variability studies on regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auer, I.; Böhm, R.; Ganekind, M.; Schöner, W.; Nemec, J.; Chimani, B.

2010-09-01

Instrumental time series of different climate elements are an important requisite for climate and climate impact studies. Long-term time series can improve our understanding of climate change during the instrumental period. During recent decades a number of national and international initiatives in European countries have significantly increased the number of existing long-term instrumental series; however a publically available data base covering Europe has not been created so far. For the "Greater Alpine Region" (4-19 deg E, 43-49 deg N, 0-3500m asl) the HISTALP data base has been established consisting of monthly homogenised temperature, pressure, precipitation, sunshine and cloudiness records. The data set may be described as follows: Long-term (fully exploiting the potential of systematically measured data). dense (network density adequate in respect to the spatial coherence of the given climate element) quality improved (outliers removed, gaps filled) homogenised (earlier sections adjusted to the recent state of the measuring site) multiple (covering more than one climate element) user friendly (well described and kept in different modes for different applications) HIST-EU is inteded to be a data set of European relevance allowing studying climate variability on regional scale. It focuses on data collection, data recovery and rescue, and homogenizing. HIST-EU will use the infrastructure of HISTALP (www.zamg.ac.at/histalp) and will allow free or restricted data access due to the regulations of data providers. HIST-EU will be carried out under the umbrella of ECSN/EUMETNET.

The sequential hypothesis of sleep function. IV. A correlative analysis of sleep variables in learning and nonlearning rats.

PubMed

Langella, M; Colarieti, L; Ambrosini, M V; Giuditta, A

1992-02-01

Female adult rats were trained for a two-way active avoidance task (4 h), and allowed free sleep (3 h). Control rats (C) were left in their home cages during the acquisition period. Dural electrodes and an intraventricular cannula, implanted one week in advance, were used for EEG recording during the period of sleep and for the injection of [3H]thymidine at the beginning of the training session, respectively. Rats were killed at the end of the sleep period, and the DNA-specific activity was determined in the main brain regions and in liver. Correlations among sleep, behavioral and biochemical variables were assessed using Spearman's nonparametric method. In learning rats (L), the number of avoidances was negatively correlated with SS-W variables, and positively correlated with SS-PS variables (episodes of synchronized sleep followed by wakefulness or paradoxical sleep, respectively) and with PS variables. An inverse pattern of correlations was shown by the number of escapes or freezings. No correlations occurred in rats unable to achieve the learning criterion (NL). In L rats, the specific activity of brain DNA was negatively correlated with SS-W variables and positively correlated with SS-PS variables, while essentially no correlation concerned PS variables. On the other hand, in NL rats, comparable correlations were positive with SS-W variables and negative with SS-PS and PS variables. Few and weak correlations occurred in C rats. The data support a role of SS in brain information processing, as postulated by the sequential hypothesis on the function of sleep. In addition, they suggest that the elimination of nonadaptive memory traces may require several SS-W episodes and a terminal SS-PS episode. During PS episodes, adaptive memory traces cleared of nonadaptive components may be copied in more suitable brain sites.

Distribution of IL-1β immunoreactive cells in pancreatic biopsies from living volunteers with new-onset type 1 diabetes: comparison with donors without diabetes and with longer duration of disease.

PubMed

Reddy, Shiva; Krogvold, Lars; Martin, Charlton; Holland, Rebecca; Choi, Jaimin; Woo, Hannah; Wu, Fiona; Dahl-Jørgensen, Knut

2018-06-01

Although IL-1β is considered a key mediator of beta cell destruction, its cellular expression in islets during early type 1 diabetes remains unclear. We compared its expression in rare pancreatic biopsies from new-onset living volunteers with its expression in cadaveric pancreas sections from non-diabetic autoantibody-positive and -negative individuals and those with long-standing disease. Pancreatic biopsy sections from six new-onset living volunteers (group 1) and cadaveric sections from 13 non-diabetic autoantibody-negative donors (group 2), four non-diabetic autoantibody-positive donors (group 3) and nine donors with diabetes of longer duration (0.25-12 years of disease; group 4) were triple-immunostained for IL-1β, insulin and glucagon. Intra- and peri-islet IL-1β-positive cells in insulin-positive and -negative islets and in random exocrine fields were enumerated. The mean number of IL-1β-positive cells per islet from each donor in peri- and intra-islet regions was <1.25 and <0.5, respectively. In all study groups, the percentage of islets with IL-1β cells in peri- and/or intra-islet regions was highly variable and ranged from 4.48% to 17.59% in group 1, 1.42% to 44.26% in group 2, 7.93% to 17.53% in group 3 and 3.85% to 42.86% in group 4, except in a single case where the value was 75%. In 25/32 donors, a higher percentage of islets showed IL-1β-positive cells in peri-islet than in intra-islet regions. In sections from diabetic donors (groups 1 and 4), a higher mean number of IL-1β-positive cells occurred in insulin-positive islets than in insulin-negative islets. In group 2, 70-90% of islets in 3/13 sections had weak-to-moderate IL-1β staining in alpha cells but staining was virtually absent or substantially reduced in the remaining groups. The mean number of exocrine IL-1β-positive cells in group 1 was lower than in the other groups. At onset of type 1 diabetes, the low number of islet-associated IL-1β-positive cells may be insufficient to elicit beta cell destruction. The variable expression in alpha cells in groups 2-4 suggests their cellular heterogeneity and probable physiological role. The significance of a higher but variable number of exocrine IL-1β-positive cells seen in non-diabetic individuals and those with long-term type 1 diabetes remains unclear.

A comparative analysis of health-related quality of life for residents of U.S. counties with and without coal mining.

PubMed

Zullig, Keith J; Hendryx, Michael

2010-01-01

We compared health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in mining and non-mining counties in and out of Appalachia using the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. Dependent variables included self-rated health, the number of poor physical and mental health days, the number of activity limitation days (in the last 30 days), and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Healthy Days Index. Independent variables included the presence of coal mining, Appalachian region residence, metropolitan status, primary care physician supply, and BRFSS behavioral (e.g., smoking, body mass index, and alcohol consumption) and demographic (e.g., age, gender, race, and income) variables. We compared dependent variables across a four-category variable: Appalachia (yes/ no) and coal mining (yes/no). We used SUDAAN Multilog and multiple linear regression models with post-hoc least-squares means to test for Appalachian coal-mining effects after adjusting for covariates. Residents of coal-mining counties inside and outside of Appalachia reported significantly fewer healthy days for both physical and mental health, and poorer self-rated health (p < 0.0005) when compared with referent U.S. non-coal-mining counties, but disparities were greatest for people residing in Appalachian coal-mining areas. Furthermore, results remained consistent in separate analyses by gender and age. Coal-mining areas are characterized by greater socioeconomic disadvantage, riskier health behaviors, and environmental degradation that are associated with reduced HRQOL.

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Bacterial CRISPR Regions: General Features and their Potential for Epidemiological Molecular Typing Studies.

PubMed

Karimi, Zahra; Ahmadi, Ali; Najafi, Ali; Ranjbar, Reza

2018-01-01

CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) loci as novel and applicable regions in prokaryotic genomes have gained great attraction in the post genomics era. These unique regions are diverse in number and sequence composition in different pathogenic bacteria and thereby can be a suitable candidate for molecular epidemiology and genotyping studies. Results:Furthermore, the arrayed structure of CRISPR loci (several unique repeats spaced with the variable sequence) and associated cas genes act as an active prokaryotic immune system against viral replication and conjugative elements. This property can be used as a tool for RNA editing in bioengineering studies. The aim of this review was to survey some details about the history, nature, and potential applications of CRISPR arrays in both genetic engineering and bacterial genotyping studies.

Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

2015-02-01

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37°C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

Structure and dynamics of Saturn's outer magnetosphere and boundary regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behannon, K. W.; Lepping, R. P.; Ness, N. F.

1983-01-01

In 1979-1981, the three USA spacecraft Pioneer 11 and Voyagers 1 and 2 discovered and explored the magnetosphere of Saturn to the limited extent possible on flyby trajectories. Considerable variation in the locations of the bow shock (BS) and magnetopause (MP) surfaces were observed in association with variable solar wind conditions and, during the Voyager 2 encounter, possible immersion in Jupiter's distant magnetic tail. The limited number of BS and MP crossings were concentrated near the subsolar region and the dawn terminator, and that fact, together with the temporal variability, makes it difficult to assess the three dimensional shape of the sunward magnetospheric boundary. The combined BS and MP crossing positions from the three spacecraft yield an average BS-to-MP stagnation point distance ratio of 1.29 +/- 0.10. This is near the 1.33 value for the Earth's magnetosphere, implying a similar sunward shape at Saturn. Study of the structure and dynamical behavior of the outer magnetosphere, both in the sunward hemisphere and the magnetotail region using combined plasma and magnetic field data, suggest that Saturn's magnetosphere is more similar to that of Earth than that of Jupiter.

Conformational flexibility of human casein kinase catalytic subunit explored by metadynamics.

PubMed

Gouron, Aurélie; Milet, Anne; Jamet, Helene

2014-03-04

Casein kinase CK2 is an essential enzyme in higher organisms, catalyzing the transfer of the γ phosphate from ATP to serine and threonine residues on protein substrates. In a number of animal tumors, CK2 activity has been shown to escape normal cellular control, making it a potential target for cancer therapy. Several crystal structures of human CK2 have been published with different conformations for the CK2α catalytic subunit. This variability reflects a high flexibility for two regions of CK2α: the interdomain hinge region, and the glycine-rich loop (p-loop). Here, we present a computational study simulating the equilibrium between three conformations involving these regions. Simulations were performed using well-tempered metadynamics combined with a path collective variables approach. This provides a reference pathway describing the conformational changes being studied, based on analysis of free energy surfaces. The free energies of the three conformations were found to be close and the paths proposed had low activation barriers. Our results indicate that these conformations can exist in water. This information should be useful when designing inhibitors specific to one conformation. Copyright © 2014 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological diversity of cassava accessions of the south-central mesoregion of the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil.

PubMed

Zago, B W; Barelli, M A A; Hoogerheide, E S S; Corrêa, C L; Delforno, G I S; da Silva, C J

2017-08-17

Genetic variability of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in Brazil is wide, being this the result of natural and cultural selection during pre- and post-domestication of the species in different environments. Given the number of species of the genus found in the region (38 of a total of 98 species), the central region of Brazil was defined as the primary center of cassava diversity. Therefore, genetic diversity characterization of cassava accessions is fundamental, both for farmers and for plant breeders, because it allows the organization of genetic resources and better utilization of available genetic diversity. This research aims to assess genetic divergence of cassava accessions from the south-central region of the State of Mato Grosso, based on multi-categorical morphological traits. For this purpose, 38 qualitative and quantitative morphological descriptors were used. Genetic diversity was expressed by the genetic similarity index, with subsequent clustering of accessions by the modified Tocher's procedure and UPGMA. Of 38 descriptors, only growth habit of stem showed no variability. Tocher and UPGMA methods were efficient and corroborated on group composition. Both methods were able to group accessions of different localities in distinct group consistency.

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka: spatial distribution and seasonal variations from 2009 to 2016.

PubMed

Galgamuwa, Lahiru Sandaruwan; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Iddawela, Devika

2018-01-25

Leishmaniasis is listed as one of the eight neglected tropical diseases by the World Health Organization and the number of cases in endemic areas has seen a sharp rise in the past decade. More alarmingly, reports have shown that leishmaniasis is spreading to non-endemic areas of the world due to co-infection with HIV. In Sri Lanka, leishmaniasis is considered as a notifiable disease from 2008 and has seen a rising trend of incidence since then. This is the first study describing the burden, seasonal variation and spatial distribution of leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka since the disease has been included as a notifiable disease. Data on health statistics from 2009 to 2016 were obtained from published databases maintained by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health in Sri Lanka. Climatic data for Sri Lanka were obtained from the Department of Meteorology and the populations in administrative districts were obtained from the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. Descriptive spatiotemporal analysis, correlation between leishmaniasis incidence and climatic variables were analyzed using SPSS statistical software. The total number of people reported with leishmaniasis during the study period was 8487. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is the prominent form in Sri Lanka while few visceral and muco-cutaneous cases were reported. Although leishmaniasis patients were identified from all 25 districts in the island, almost 90% of the total caseload was reported from Anuradhapura, Hambantota, Polonnaruwa, Kurunegala and Matara districts. The highest number of patients was reported from the Anuradhapura district and the highest incidence per 100,000 persons was reported from the Hambantota district. The disease has a seasonal trend, a peak of leishmaniasis occur in July to September in the north-central region and in October to December in the southern region. Maximum temperature, humidity and wind speed are significantly associated climatic variables with leishmaniasis in endemic regions. Leishmaniasis is an emerging public health problem in north-central and southern Sri Lanka. Public awareness programs for the prevention and control of the disease in endemic regions are essential to reduce the incidence of leishmaniasis.

Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

2017-12-01

The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate variations play a role in TC intensification.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models.

PubMed

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas; Shieh, Bao-Sen

2017-01-01

Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies.

Contrasting determinants for the introduction and establishment success of exotic birds in Taiwan using decision trees models

PubMed Central

Liang, Shih-Hsiung; Walther, Bruno Andreas

2017-01-01

Background Biological invasions have become a major threat to biodiversity, and identifying determinants underlying success at different stages of the invasion process is essential for both prevention management and testing ecological theories. To investigate variables associated with different stages of the invasion process in a local region such as Taiwan, potential problems using traditional parametric analyses include too many variables of different data types (nominal, ordinal, and interval) and a relatively small data set with too many missing values. Methods We therefore used five decision tree models instead and compared their performance. Our dataset contains 283 exotic bird species which were transported to Taiwan; of these 283 species, 95 species escaped to the field successfully (introduction success); of these 95 introduced species, 36 species reproduced in the field of Taiwan successfully (establishment success). For each species, we collected 22 variables associated with human selectivity and species traits which may determine success during the introduction stage and establishment stage. For each decision tree model, we performed three variable treatments: (I) including all 22 variables, (II) excluding nominal variables, and (III) excluding nominal variables and replacing ordinal values with binary ones. Five performance measures were used to compare models, namely, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), specificity, precision, recall, and accuracy. Results The gradient boosting models performed best overall among the five decision tree models for both introduction and establishment success and across variable treatments. The most important variables for predicting introduction success were the bird family, the number of invaded countries, and variables associated with environmental adaptation, whereas the most important variables for predicting establishment success were the number of invaded countries and variables associated with reproduction. Discussion Our final optimal models achieved relatively high performance values, and we discuss differences in performance with regard to sample size and variable treatments. Our results showed that, for both the establishment model and introduction model, the number of invaded countries was the most important or second most important determinant, respectively. Therefore, we suggest that future success for introduction and establishment of exotic birds may be gauged by simply looking at previous success in invading other countries. Finally, we found that species traits related to reproduction were more important in establishment models than in introduction models; importantly, these determinants were not averaged but either minimum or maximum values of species traits. Therefore, we suggest that in addition to averaged values, reproductive potential represented by minimum and maximum values of species traits should be considered in invasion studies. PMID:28316893

Quantification and regionalization of groundwater recharge in South-Central Kansas: Integrating field characterization, statistical analysis, and GIS

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, M.

2000-01-01

A practical methodology for recharge characterization was developed based on several years of field-oriented research at 10 sites in the Great Bend Prairie of south-central Kansas. This methodology combines the soil-water budget on a storm-by-storm year-round basis with the resulting watertable rises. The estimated 1985-1992 average annual recharge was less than 50mm/year with a range from 15 mm/year (during the 1998 drought) to 178 mm/year (during the 1993 flood year). Most of this recharge occurs during the spring months. To regionalize these site-specific estimates, an additional methodology based on multiple (forward) regression analysis combined with classification and GIS overlay analyses was developed and implemented. The multiple regression analysis showed that the most influential variables were, in order of decreasing importance, total annual precipitation, average maximum springtime soil-profile water storage, average shallowest springtime depth to watertable, and average springtime precipitation rate. Therefore, four GIS (ARC/INFO) data "layers" or coverages were constructed for the study region based on these four variables, and each such coverage was classified into the same number of data classes to avoid biasing the results. The normalized regression coefficients were employed to weigh the class rankings of each recharge-affecting variable. This approach resulted in recharge zonations that agreed well with the site recharge estimates. During the "Great Flood of 1993," when rainfall totals exceeded normal levels by -200% in the northern portion of the study region, the developed regionalization methodology was tested against such extreme conditions, and proved to be both practical, based on readily available or easily measurable data, and robust. It was concluded that the combination of multiple regression and GIS overlay analyses is a powerful and practical approach to regionalizing small samples of recharge estimates.

GANP regulates recruitment of AID to immunoglobulin variable regions by modulating transcription and nucleosome occupancy

PubMed Central

Singh, Shailendra Kumar; Maeda, Kazuhiko; Eid, Mohammed Mansour Abbas; Almofty, Sarah Ameen; Ono, Masaya; Pham, Phuong; Goodman, Myron F.; Sakaguchi, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Somatic hypermutation in B cells is initiated by activation-induced cytidine deaminase-catalyzed C→U deamination at immunoglobulin variable regions. Here we investigate the role of the germinal centre-associated nuclear protein (GANP) in enhancing the access of activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) to immunoglobulin variable regions. We show that the nuclear export factor GANP is involved in chromatin modification at rearranged immunoglobulin variable loci, and its activity requires a histone acetyltransferase domain. GANP interacts with the transcription stalling protein Spt5 and facilitates RNA Pol-II recruitment to immunoglobulin variable regions. Germinal centre B cells from ganp-transgenic mice showed a higher AID occupancy at the immunoglobulin variable region, whereas B cells from conditional ganp-knockout mice exhibit a lower AID accessibility. These findings suggest that GANP-mediated chromatin modification promotes transcription complex recruitment and positioning at immunoglobulin variable loci to favour AID targeting. PMID:23652018

Regional differences in echocardiography provision in New Zealand--results from the 2013 SCANZ Workforce Survey.

PubMed

Buckley, Belinda A; Poppe, Katrina; Farnworth, Mark J; Whalley, Gillian

2015-01-30

Abstract Healthcare may be unevenly distributed based on geographic location. This study aimed to identify whether regional differences in echocardiography provision exist and, if so, to explore key causes. In March 2013, 18 public hospitals with a sonographer-led echocardiography service were surveyed, all of which provided data. Questions related to characteristics of the sonographer workforce, echocardiogram volumes and workflows. Information on District Health Board (DHB) population was obtained from public access websites. Multivariable linear regression was performed using the following variables: ethnicity, age, socioeconomic status, type of centre, sonographer full-time equivalent (FTE) and number/proportion of trainees to determine their potential contribution to echocardiogram volume. 1748 echocardiograms were performed per 100,000 population (mean) with significant differences seen amongst DHBs but not between tertiary surgical and regional centres (surgical median 1802, regional median 1658, p=0.18). Regional disparity in the population-based cardiac sonographer workforce size was observed and the number of scans performed per sonographer was higher in larger centres. In multivariable modelling, the DHB population-based scan volume was predicted by: socioeconomic status (top two quintiles of deprivation status increased scans by 75 per 100,000 population, p=0.02) and age (age 20 to 65 years increased scans by 131 per 100,000 population, p=0.06). Regional differences in echocardiography services in New Zealand exist as evidenced by marked regional disparity in both population-based echo volumes and cardiac sonographer workforce size.

Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

PubMed

Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

2018-01-01

Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

DSMC Simulation and Experimental Validation of Shock Interaction in Hypersonic Low Density Flow

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) of shock interaction in hypersonic low density flow is developed. Three collision molecular models, including hard sphere (HS), variable hard sphere (VHS), and variable soft sphere (VSS), are employed in the DSMC study. The simulations of double-cone and Edney's type IV hypersonic shock interactions in low density flow are performed. Comparisons between DSMC and experimental data are conducted. Investigation of the double-cone hypersonic flow shows that three collision molecular models can predict the trend of pressure coefficient and the Stanton number. HS model shows the best agreement between DSMC simulation and experiment among three collision molecular models. Also, it shows that the agreement between DSMC and experiment is generally good for HS and VHS models in Edney's type IV shock interaction. However, it fails in the VSS model. Both double-cone and Edney's type IV shock interaction simulations show that the DSMC errors depend on the Knudsen number and the models employed for intermolecular interaction. With the increase in the Knudsen number, the DSMC error is decreased. The error is the smallest in HS compared with those in the VHS and VSS models. When the Knudsen number is in the level of 10−4, the DSMC errors, for pressure coefficient, the Stanton number, and the scale of interaction region, are controlled within 10%. PMID:24672360

Nonlinear effects on sound propagation through high subsonic Mach number flows in variable area ducts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Callegari, A. J.

1979-01-01

A nonlinear theory for sound propagation in variable area ducts carrying a nearly sonic flow is presented. Linear acoustic theory is shown to be singular and the detailed nature of the singularity is used to develop the correct nonlinear theory. The theory is based on a quasi-one dimensional model. It is derived by the method of matched asymptotic expansions. In a nearly chocked flow, the theory indicates the following processes to be acting: a transonic trapping of upstream propagating sound causing an intensification of this sound in the throat region of the duct; generation of superharmonics and an acoustic streaming effect; development of shocks in the acoustic quantities near the throat. Several specific problems are solved analytically and numerical parameter studies are carried out. Results indicate that appreciable acoustic power is shifted to higher harmonics as shocked conditions are approached. The effect of the throat Mach number on the attenuation of upstream propagating sound excited by a fixed source is also determined.

Dynamics of chromosome number and genome size variation in a cytogenetically variable sedge (Carex scoparia var. scoparia, Cyperaceae).

PubMed

Chung, Kyong-Sook; Weber, Jaime A; Hipp, Andrew L

2011-01-01

High intraspecific cytogenetic variation in the sedge genus Carex (Cyperaceae) is hypothesized to be due to the "diffuse" or non-localized centromeres, which facilitate chromosome fission and fusion. If chromosome number changes are dominated by fission and fusion, then chromosome evolution will result primarily in changes in the potential for recombination among populations. Chromosome duplications, on the other hand, entail consequent opportunities for divergent evolution of paralogs. In this study, we evaluate whether genome size and chromosome number covary within species. We used flow cytometry to estimate genome sizes in Carex scoparia var. scoparia, sampling 99 plants (23 populations) in the Chicago region, and we used meiotic chromosome observations to document chromosome numbers and chromosome pairing relations. Chromosome numbers range from 2n = 62 to 2n = 68, and nuclear DNA 1C content from 0.342 to 0.361 pg DNA. Regressions of DNA content on chromosome number are nonsignificant for data analyzed by individual or population, and a regression model that excludes slope is favored over a model in which chromosome number predicts genome size. Chromosome rearrangements within cytogenetically variable Carex species are more likely a consequence of fission and fusion than of duplication and deletion. Moreover, neither genome size nor chromosome number is spatially autocorrelated, which suggests the potential for rapid chromosome evolution by fission and fusion at a relatively fine geographic scale (<350 km). These findings have important implications for ecological restoration and speciation within the largest angiosperm genus of the temperate zone.

Martian Surface Compositions and Spectral Unit Mapping From the Thermal Emission Imaging System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandfield, J. L.; Christensen, P. R.; Rogers, D.

2005-12-01

The Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) on board the Mars Odyssey spacecraft observes Mars at nine spectral intervals between 6 and 15 microns and at 100 meter spatial sampling. This spectral and spatial resolution allows for mapping of local spectral units and coarse compositional determination of a variety of rock-forming materials such as carbonates, sulfates, and silicates. A number of data processing and atmospheric correction techniques have been developed to ease and speed the interpretation of multispectral THEMIS infrared images. These products and techniques are in the process of being made publicly available via the THEMIS website and were used to produce the results presented here. Spectral variability at kilometer scales in THEMIS data is more common in the southern highlands than in the northern lowlands. Many of the spectral units are associated with a mobile surface layer such as dune fields and mantled dust. However, a number of spectral units appear to be directly tied to the local geologic rock units. These spectral units are commonly associated with crater walls, floors, and ejecta blankets. Other surface compositions are correlated with layered volcanic materials and knobby remnant terrains. Most of the spectral variability observed to date appears to be tied to a variation in silicate mineralogy. Olivine rich units that have been previously reported in Nili Fossae, Ares Valles, and the Valles Marineris region appear to be sparse but common in a number of regions in the southern highlands. Variations in silica content consistent with previously reported global surface units also appear to be present in THEMIS images, allowing for an examination of their local geologic context. Previously reported quartz and feldspar rich exposures in northern Syrtis Major appear more extensive in the region than previously reported. A coherent global and local picture of the mineralogy of the Martian surface is emerging from THEMIS measurements along with other orbital thermal and near infrared spectroscopy measurements from the Mars Express and Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft.

Post-heading heat stress and yield impact in winter wheat of China.

PubMed

Liu, Bing; Liu, Leilei; Tian, Liying; Cao, Weixing; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2014-02-01

Wheat is sensitive to high temperatures, but the spatial and temporal variability of high temperature and its impact on yield are often not known. An analysis of historical climate and yield data was undertaken to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of heat stress between heading and maturity and its impact on wheat grain yield in China. Several heat stress indices were developed to quantify heat intensity, frequency, and duration between heading and maturity based on measured maximum temperature records of the last 50 years from 166 stations in the main wheat-growing region of China. Surprisingly, heat stress between heading and maturity was more severe in the generally cooler northern wheat-growing regions than the generally warmer southern regions of China, because of the delayed time of heading with low temperatures during the earlier growing season and the exposure of the post-heading phase into the warmer part of the year. Heat stress between heading and maturity has increased in the last decades in most of the main winter wheat production areas of China, but the rate was higher in the south than in the north. The correlation between measured grain yields and post-heading heat stress and average temperature were statistically significant in the entire wheat-producing region, and explained about 29% of the observed spatial and temporal yield variability. A heat stress index considering the duration and intensity of heat between heading and maturity was required to describe the correlation of heat stress and yield variability. Because heat stress is a major cause of yield loss and the number of heat events is projected to increase in the future, quantifying the future impact of heat stress on wheat production and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are critical for developing food security policies in China and elsewhere. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimated long-term outdoor air pollution concentrations in a cohort study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beelen, Rob; Hoek, Gerard; Fischer, Paul; Brandt, Piet A. van den; Brunekreef, Bert

Several recent studies associated long-term exposure to air pollution with increased mortality. An ongoing cohort study, the Netherlands Cohort Study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), was used to study the association between long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and mortality. Following on a previous exposure assessment study in the NLCS, we improved the exposure assessment methods. Long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), nitrogen oxide (NO), black smoke (BS), and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) was estimated. Exposure at each home address ( N=21 868) was considered as a function of a regional, an urban and a local component. The regional component was estimated using inverse distance weighed interpolation of measurement data from regional background sites in a national monitoring network. Regression models with urban concentrations as dependent variables, and number of inhabitants in different buffers and land use variables, derived with a Geographic Information System (GIS), as predictor variables were used to estimate the urban component. The local component was assessed using a GIS and a digital road network with linked traffic intensities. Traffic intensity on the nearest road and on the nearest major road, and the sum of traffic intensity in a buffer of 100 m around each home address were assessed. Further, a quantitative estimate of the local component was estimated. The regression models to estimate the urban component explained 67%, 46%, 49% and 35% of the variances of NO 2, NO, BS, and SO 2 concentrations, respectively. Overall regression models which incorporated the regional, urban and local component explained 84%, 44%, 59% and 56% of the variability in concentrations for NO 2, NO, BS and SO 2, respectively. We were able to develop an exposure assessment model using GIS methods and traffic intensities that explained a large part of the variations in outdoor air pollution concentrations.

Scrub typhus islands in the Taiwan area and the association between scrub typhus disease and forest land use and farmer population density: geographically weighted regression.

PubMed

Tsai, Pui-Jen; Yeh, Hsi-Chyi

2013-04-29

The Taiwan area comprises the main island of Taiwan and several small islands located off the coast of the Southern China. The eastern two-thirds of Taiwan are characterized by rugged mountains covered with tropical and subtropical vegetation. The western region of Taiwan is characterized by flat or gently rolling plains. Geographically, the Taiwan area is diverse in ecology and environment, although scrub typhus threatens local human populations. In this study, we investigate the effects of seasonal and meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus infection among 10 local climate regions. The correlation between the spatial distribution of scrub typhus and cultivated forests in Taiwan, as well as the relationship between scrub typhus incidence and the population density of farm workers is examined. We applied Pearson's product moment correlation to calculate the correlation between the incidence of scrub typhus and meteorological factors among 10 local climate regions. We used the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, a type of spatial regression that generates parameters disaggregated by the spatial units of analysis, to detail and map each regression point for the response variables of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR)-district scrub typhus. We also applied the GWR to examine the explanatory variables of types of forest-land use and farm worker density in Taiwan in 2005. In the Taiwan Area, scrub typhus endemic areas are located in the southeastern regions and mountainous townships of Taiwan, as well as the Pescadore, Kinmen, and Matou Islands. Among these islands and low-incidence areas in the central western and southwestern regions of Taiwan, we observed a significant correlation between scrub typhus incidence and surface temperature. No similar significant correlation was found in the endemic areas (e.g., the southeastern region and the mountainous area of Taiwan). Precipitation correlates positively with scrub typhus incidence in 3 local climate regions (i.e., Taiwan's central western and southwestern regions, and the Kinmen Islands). Relative humidity correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan and the Kinmen Islands. The number of wet days correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan. The duration of sunshine correlates positively with incidence in Central Western Taiwan, as well as the Kinmen and Matou Islands. In addition, the 10 local climatic regions can be classified into the following 3 groups, based on the warm-cold seasonal fluctuations in scrub typhus incidence: (a) Type 1, evident in 5 local climate regions (Taiwan's northern, northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern regions, as well as the mountainous area); (b) Type 2 (Taiwan's central western and southwestern regions, and the Pescadore Islands); and (c) Type 3 (the Kinmen and Matou Islands). In the GWR models, the response variable of the SIR-district scrub typhus has a statistically significantly positive association with 2 explanatory variables (farm worker population density and timber management). In addition, other explanatory variables (recreational forests, natural reserves, and "other purpose" areas) show positive or negative signs for parameter estimates in various locations in Taiwan. Negative signs of parameter estimates occurred only for the explanatory variables of national protectorates, plantations, and clear-cut areas. The results of this study show that scrub typhus in Taiwan can be classified into 3 types. Type 1 exhibits no climatic effect, whereas the incidence of Type 2 correlates positively with higher temperatures during the warm season, and the incidence of Type 3 correlates positively with higher surface temperatures and longer hours of sunshine. The results also show that in the mountainous township areas of Taiwan's central and southern regions, as well as in Southeastern Taiwan, higher SIR values for scrub typhus are associated with the following variables: farm worker population density, timber management, and area type (i.e., recreational forest, natural reserve, or other purpose).

Scrub typhus islands in the Taiwan area and the association between scrub typhus disease and forest land use and farmer population density: geographically weighted regression

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The Taiwan area comprises the main island of Taiwan and several small islands located off the coast of the Southern China. The eastern two-thirds of Taiwan are characterized by rugged mountains covered with tropical and subtropical vegetation. The western region of Taiwan is characterized by flat or gently rolling plains. Geographically, the Taiwan area is diverse in ecology and environment, although scrub typhus threatens local human populations. In this study, we investigate the effects of seasonal and meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus infection among 10 local climate regions. The correlation between the spatial distribution of scrub typhus and cultivated forests in Taiwan, as well as the relationship between scrub typhus incidence and the population density of farm workers is examined. Methods We applied Pearson’s product moment correlation to calculate the correlation between the incidence of scrub typhus and meteorological factors among 10 local climate regions. We used the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, a type of spatial regression that generates parameters disaggregated by the spatial units of analysis, to detail and map each regression point for the response variables of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR)-district scrub typhus. We also applied the GWR to examine the explanatory variables of types of forest-land use and farm worker density in Taiwan in 2005. Results In the Taiwan Area, scrub typhus endemic areas are located in the southeastern regions and mountainous townships of Taiwan, as well as the Pescadore, Kinmen, and Matou Islands. Among these islands and low-incidence areas in the central western and southwestern regions of Taiwan, we observed a significant correlation between scrub typhus incidence and surface temperature. No similar significant correlation was found in the endemic areas (e.g., the southeastern region and the mountainous area of Taiwan). Precipitation correlates positively with scrub typhus incidence in 3 local climate regions (i.e., Taiwan’s central western and southwestern regions, and the Kinmen Islands). Relative humidity correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan and the Kinmen Islands. The number of wet days correlates positively with incidence in Southwestern Taiwan. The duration of sunshine correlates positively with incidence in Central Western Taiwan, as well as the Kinmen and Matou Islands. In addition, the 10 local climatic regions can be classified into the following 3 groups, based on the warm-cold seasonal fluctuations in scrub typhus incidence: (a) Type 1, evident in 5 local climate regions (Taiwan’s northern, northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern regions, as well as the mountainous area); (b) Type 2 (Taiwan’s central western and southwestern regions, and the Pescadore Islands); and (c) Type 3 (the Kinmen and Matou Islands). In the GWR models, the response variable of the SIR-district scrub typhus has a statistically significantly positive association with 2 explanatory variables (farm worker population density and timber management). In addition, other explanatory variables (recreational forests, natural reserves, and “other purpose” areas) show positive or negative signs for parameter estimates in various locations in Taiwan. Negative signs of parameter estimates occurred only for the explanatory variables of national protectorates, plantations, and clear-cut areas. Conclusion The results of this study show that scrub typhus in Taiwan can be classified into 3 types. Type 1 exhibits no climatic effect, whereas the incidence of Type 2 correlates positively with higher temperatures during the warm season, and the incidence of Type 3 correlates positively with higher surface temperatures and longer hours of sunshine. The results also show that in the mountainous township areas of Taiwan’s central and southern regions, as well as in Southeastern Taiwan, higher SIR values for scrub typhus are associated with the following variables: farm worker population density, timber management, and area type (i.e., recreational forest, natural reserve, or other purpose). PMID:23627966

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Glycated hemoglobin: A powerful tool not used enough in primary care.

PubMed

Salinas, Maria; López-Garrigós, Maite; Flores, Emilio; Leiva-Salinas, Carlos

2018-03-01

Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) is one of the most useful and relevant laboratory tests currently available. The aim of the actual research was to study the variability and appropriateness in the request of HbA1c in primary care, and differences between regions, to assess if there would be an opportunity to improve the request. A cross-sectional study was conducted enrolling clinical Spanish laboratories. The number of HbA1c requested in 2014 by all general practitioners was reported by each participant. Test-utilization rate was expressed as tests per 1000 inhabitants. The index of variability was calculated, as the top decile divided by the bottom decile. HbA1c per 1000 inhabitants was compared between the different regions. To investigate whether HbA1c was appropriately requested to manage patients with diabetes, the real request was compared to the theoretically ideal number, according to prevalence of known diabetes mellitus in Spain and guideline recommendations. A total of 110 laboratories participated in the study, corresponding to a catchment area of 27 798 262 inhabitants (59.8% of the Spanish population) from 15 different autonomous communities (AACCs). 2 655 547 HbA1c were requested, a median of 93.9 (interquartile range (IQR): 33.4) per 1000 inhabitants. The variability index was 1.97. The HbA1c/1000 inhabitants was significantly different among the AACCs, ranging from 73.4 to 126.3. A total of 4 336 529 additional HbA1c would have been necessary to manage patients with diabetes according to guidelines, and 3 861 769 for diagnosis in asymptomatic patients. There was a high variability and significant differences between Spanish AACCs. Also a significant under-request of HbA1c was observed in Primary Care in Spain. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Probabilistic discrimination between liquid rainfall events, hailstorms, biomass burning and industrial fires from C-Band Radar Polarimetric Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valencia, J. M.; Sepúlveda, J.; Hoyos, C.; Herrera, L.

2017-12-01

Characterization and identification of fire and hailstorm events using weather radar data in a tropical complex topography region is an important task in risk management and agriculture. Polarimetric variables from a C-Band Dual polarization weather radar have potential uses in particle classification, due to the relationship their sensitivity to shape, spatial orientation, size and fall behavior of particles. In this sense, three forest fires and two chemical fires were identified for the Áburra Valley regions. Measurements were compared between each fire event type and with typical data radar retrievals for liquid precipitation events. Results of this analysis show different probability density functions for each type of event according to the particles present in them. This is very important and useful result for early warning systems to avoid precipitation false alarms during fire events within the study region, as well as for the early detection of fires using radar retrievals in remote cases. The comparative methodology is extended to hailstorm cases. Complementary sensors like laser precipitation sensors (LPM) disdrometers and meteorological stations were used to select dates of solid precipitation occurrence. Then, in this dates weather radar data variables were taken in pixels surrounding the stations and solid precipitation polar values were statistically compared with liquid precipitation values. Spectrum precipitation measured by LPM disdrometer helps to define typical features like particles number, fall velocities and diameters for both precipitation types. In addition, to achieve a complete hailstorm characterization, other meteorological variables were analyzed: wind field from meteorological stations and radar wind profiler, profiling data from Micro Rain Radar (MRR), and thermodynamic data from a microwave radiometer.

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel. Predictability using S4CAST model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione, Jacques-André; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2014-05-01

Senegal and, in general, West African regions are affected by important outbreaks of diseases with destructive consequences for human population, livestock and country's economy. The vector-borne diseases such as mainly malaria, Rift Valley Fever and dengue are affected by the interanual to decadal variability of climate. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters and associated oceanic patterns is important in order to assess the climate impact on malaria transmission. In this study, the approach developed to study the malaria-climate link is predefined by the QWeCI project (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries). Preliminary observations and simulations results over Senegal Ferlo region, confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity; and a lag of one to two months between the maximum of malaria and the maximum of climate parameters as rainfall is observed. As climate variables are able to be predicted from oceanic SST variability in remote regions, this study explores seasonal predictability of malaria incidence outbreaks from previous sea surface temperatures conditions in different ocean basins. We have found causal or coincident relationship between El Niño and malaria parameters by coupling LMM UNILIV malaria model and S4CAST statistiscal model with the aim of predicting the malaria parameters with more than 6 months in advance. In particular, El Niño is linked to an important decrease of the number of mosquitoes and the malaria incidence. Results from this research, after assessing the seasonal malaria parameters, are expected to be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on health in the framework of rolling back malaria transmission.

Quantum mechanics of conformally and minimally coupled Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sang Pyo

1992-10-01

The expansion method by a time-dependent basis of the eigenfunctions for the space-coordinate-dependent sub-Hamiltonian is one of the most natural frameworks for quantum systems, relativistic as well as nonrelativistic. The complete set of wave functions is found in the product integral formulation, whose constants of integration are fixed by Cauchy initial data. The wave functions for the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) cosmology conformally and minimally coupled to a scalar field with a power-law potential or a polynomial potential are expanded in terms of the eigenfunctions of the scalar field sub-Hamiltonian part. The resultant gravitational field part which is an ``intrinsic'' timelike variable-dependent matrix-valued differential equation is solved again in the product integral formulation. There are classically allowed regions for the ``intrinsic'' timelike variable depending on the scalar field quantum numbers and these regions increase accordingly as the quantum numbers increase. For a fixed large three-geometry the wave functions corresponding to the low excited (small quantum number) states of the scalar field are exponentially damped or diverging and the wave functions corresponding to the high excited (large quantum number) states are still oscillatory but become eventually exponential as the three-geometry becomes larger. Furthermore, a proposal is advanced that the wave functions exponentially damped for a large three-geometry may be interpreted as ``tunneling out'' wave functions into, and the wave functions exponentially diverging as ``tunneling in'' from, different universes with the same or different topologies, the former being interpreted as the recently proposed Hawking-Page wormhole wave functions. It is observed that there are complex as well as Euclidean actions depending on the quantum numbers of the scalar field part outside the classically allowed region both of the gravitational and scalar fields, suggesting the usefulness of complex geometry and complex trajectories. From the most general wave functions for the FRW cosmology conformally coupled to scalar field, the boundary conditions for the wormhole wave functions are modified so that the modulus of wave functions, instead of the wave functions themselves, should be exponentially damped for a large three-geometry and be regular up to some negative power of the three-geometry as the three-geometry collapses. The wave functions for the FRW cosmology minimally coupled to an inhomogeneous scalar field are similarly found in the product integral formulation. The role of a large number of the inhomogeneous modes of the scalar field is not only to increase the classically allowed regions for the gravitational part but also to provide a mechanism of the decoherence of quantum interferences between the different sizes of the universe.

Analysis of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: skill, added value of regionalization, and ensemble size dependeny

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyers, Mark; Moemken, Julia; Pinto, Joaquim; Feldmann, Hendrik; Kottmeier, Christoph; MiKlip Module-C Team

2017-04-01

Decadal climate predictions can provide a useful basis for decision making support systems for the public and private sectors. Several generations of decadal hindcasts and predictions have been generated throughout the German research program MiKlip. Together with the global climate predictions computed with MPI-ESM, the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM is used for regional downscaling by MiKlip Module-C. The RCMs provide climate information on spatial and temporal scales closer to the needs of potential users. In this study, two downscaled hindcast generations are analysed (named b0 and b1). The respective global generations are both initialized by nudging them towards different reanalysis anomaly fields. An ensemble of five starting years (1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, and 2001), each comprising ten ensemble members, is used for both generations in order to quantify the regional decadal prediction skill for precipitation and near-surface temperature and wind speed over Europe. All datasets (including hindcasts, observations, reanalysis, and historical MPI-ESM runs) are pre-processed in an analogue manner by (i) removing the long-term trend and (ii) re-gridding to a common grid. Our analysis shows that there is potential for skillful decadal predictions over Europe in the regional MiKlip ensemble, but the skill is not systematic and depends on the PRUDENCE region and the variable. Further, the differences between the two hindcast generations are mostly small. As we used detrended time series, the predictive skill found in our study can probably attributed to reasonable predictions of anomalies which are associated with the natural climate variability. In a sensitivity study, it is shown that the results may strongly change when the long-term trend is kept in the datasets, as here the skill of predicting the long-term trend (e.g. for temperature) also plays a major role. The regionalization of the global ensemble provides an added value for decadal predictions for some complex regions like the Mediterranean and Iberian Peninsula, while for other regions no systematic improvement is found. A clear dependence of the performance of the regional MiKlip system on the ensemble size is detected. For all variables in both hindcast generations, the skill increases when the ensemble is enlarged. The results indicate that a number of ten members is an appropriate ensemble size for decadal predictions over Europe.

Quantitative predictions of streamflow variability in the Susquehanna River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R.; Boyer, E. W.; Leonard, L. N.; Duffy, C.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2012-12-01

Hydrologic researchers and water managers have increasingly sought an improved understanding of the major processes that control fluxes of water and solutes across diverse environmental settings and large spatial scales. Regional analyses of observed streamflow data have led to advances in our knowledge of relations among land use, climate, and streamflow, with methodologies ranging from statistical assessments of multiple monitoring sites to the regionalization of the parameters of catchment-scale mechanistic simulation models. However, gaps remain in our understanding of the best ways to transfer the knowledge of hydrologic response and governing processes among locations, including methods for regionalizing streamflow measurements and model predictions. We developed an approach to predict variations in streamflow using the SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) modeling infrastructure, with mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistical estimation of regional and sub-regional parameters. We used the model to predict discharge in the Susquehanna River Basin (SRB) under varying hydrological regimes that are representative of contemporary flow conditions. The resulting basin-scale water balance describes mean monthly flows in stream reaches throughout the entire SRB (represented at a 1:100,000 scale using the National Hydrologic Data network), with water supply and demand components that are inclusive of a range of hydrologic, climatic, and cultural properties (e.g., precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage, runoff, baseflow, water use). We compare alternative models of varying complexity that reflect differences in the number and types of explanatory variables and functional expressions as well as spatial and temporal variability in the model parameters. Statistical estimation of the models reveals the levels of complexity that can be uniquely identified, subject to the information content and uncertainties of the hydrologic and climate measurements. Assessment of spatial variations in the model parameters and predictions provides an improved understanding of how much of the hydrologic response to land use, climate, and other properties is unique to specific locations versus more universally observed across catchments of the SRB. This approach advances understanding of water cycle variability at any location throughout the stream network, as a function of both landscape characteristics (e.g., soils, vegetation, land use) and external forcings (e.g., precipitation quantity and frequency). These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics will advance the ability to predict spatial and temporal variability in key solutes, such as nutrients, and their delivery to the Chesapeake Bay.

Southeast Pacific atmospheric composition and variability sampled along 20˚S during VOCALS-REx

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, G.; Kleinman, L.; Coe, H.

2011-01-10

The VAMOS Ocean-Climate-Atmosphere-Land Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx) was conducted from 15 October to 15 November 2008 in the South East Pacific region to investigate interactions between land, sea and atmosphere in this unique tropical eastern ocean environment and to improve the skill of global and regional models in representing the region. This study synthesises selected aircraft, ship and surface site observations from VOCALS-REx to statistically summarise and characterise the atmospheric composition and variability of the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) and Free Troposphere (FT) along the 20{sup o} S parallel between 70{sup o} W and 85{sup o} W. Significant zonal gradients inmore » mean MBL sub-micron aerosol particle size and composition, carbon monoxide, ozone and sulphur dioxide were seen over the campaign, with a generally more variable and polluted coastal environment and a less variable, more pristine remote maritime regime. Gradients are observed to be associated with strong gradients in cloud droplet number. The FT is often more polluted in terms of trace gases than the MBL in the mean; however increased variability in the FT composition suggests an episodic nature to elevated concentrations. This is consistent with a complex vertical interleaving of airmasses with diverse sources and hence pollutant concentrations as seen by generalised back trajectory analysis, which suggests contributions from both local and long-range sources. Furthermore, back trajectory analysis demonstrates that the observed zonal gradients both in the boundary layer and the free troposphere are characteristic of marked changes in airmass history with distance offshore - coastal boundary layer airmasses having been in recent contact with the local land surface and remote maritime airmasses having resided over ocean for in excess of ten days. Boundary layer composition to the east of 75{sup o} W was observed to be dominated by coastal emissions from sources to the west of the Andes, with evidence for diurnal pumping of the Andean boundary layer above the height of the marine capping inversion. The climatology presented here aims to provide a valuable dataset to inform model simulation and future process studies, particularly in the context of aerosol-cloud interaction and further evaluation of dynamical processes in the SEP region for conditions analogous to those during VOCALS-REx.« less

E-Business, the impact of regional growth on the improvement of Information and Communication Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, MI; Hasyim, C.; Kurniasih, N.; Abdullah, D.; Napitupulu, D.; Rahim, R.; Sukoco, A.; Dhaniarti, I.; Suyono, J.; Sudapet, IN; Nasihien, RD; Wulandari, DAR; Reswanda; Mudjanarko, SW; Sugeng; Wajdi, MBN

2018-04-01

ICT becomes a key element to improve industrial infrastructure efficiency and sustainable economic productivity. This study aims to analysis the impact of regional improvement on information and communication development in Indonesia. This research is a correlational study. Population of this research include 151 regions in Indonesia. By using a total sampling, there were 151 sample regions. The results show there are the strong impact of regional growth on increasing Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of information and communication. It can be seen from all regional improvement sub variables that have a high correlation in increasing GRDP of Information and Communication in Indonesia. Only two sub-variables that have low correlation to GRDP of Information and Communication variable i.e. GRDP of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (0.01) and GRDP of Mining and Quarrying (0.04). The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.981, means the variable of information and communication GRDP has a very strong correlation with regional growth variable. Thus the value of Adjusted R Square is 95.8%, means there are impact of regional growth variables in increasing GRDPof Information and Communication, while the increase of 4.2% of Information and Communication GRDP is influenced by other factors aside from regional improvement.

Use of artificial neural networks in applying methodology for allocating health resources.

PubMed

Rosas, Marina Araújo; Bezerra, Adriana Falangola Benjamin; Duarte-Neto, Paulo José

2013-02-01

To describe the construction of a factor of allocation of financial resources, based on the population's health needs. Quantitative study with data collected from public databases referring to the state of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil, between 2000 and 2010. Variables which reflected epidemiological, demographic, socio-economic and educational processes were selected in order to create a factor of allocation which highlighted the health needs of the population. The data sources were: SUS (Brazilian Unified Health System) Department of Computer Science, Atlas of Human Development in Brazil, IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), Information System on Public Health Budgets, National Treasury and data from the Pernambuco Health Secretariat between 2000 and 2010. Pearson's coefficient was used to assess linear correlation and the factor of allocation was calculated using analysis by artificial neural networks. The quartiles of the municipalities were defined according to their health needs. The distribution shown here highlights that all the coastal region, a good part of the Mata Norte and Mata Sul regions and the Agreste Setentrional and Agreste Central regions are in Quartile 1, that which has the largest number of municipalities. The Agreste Meridional region had municipalities in all of the quartiles. In the Pajeú/Moxotó region, many of the municipalities were in Quartile 1. Similar distribution was verified in the Sertão Central region. In the Araripe region, the majority of the municipalities were in Quartiles 3 or 4 and the São Francisco region was divided between Quartiles 1, 2 and 3. The factor of allocation grouped together municipalities of Pernambuco according to variables related to public health needs and separated those with extreme needs, requiring greater financial support, from those with lesser needs.

Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.

Jobs within a 30-minute transit ride - Service

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This mapping service summarizes the total number of jobs that can be reached within 30 minutes by transit. EPA modeled accessibility via transit by calculating total travel time between block group centroids inclusive of walking to/from transit stops, wait times, and transfers. Block groups that can be accessed in 30 minutes or less from the origin block group are considered accessible. Values reflect public transit service in December 2012 and employment counts in 2010. Coverage is limited to census block groups within metropolitan regions served by transit agencies who share their service data in a standardized format called GTFS.All variable names refer to variables in EPA's Smart Location Database. For instance EmpTot10_sum summarizes total employment (EmpTot10) in block groups that are reachable within a 30-minute transit and walking commute. See Smart Location Database User Guide for full variable descriptions.

Diversity among French Bacillus anthracis isolates.

PubMed

Fouet, Agnès; Smith, Kimothy L; Keys, Chris; Vaissaire, Josée; Le Doujet, Claudine; Lévy, Martine; Mock, Michèle; Keim, Paul

2002-12-01

While outbreaks of animal anthrax zoonoses still regularly occur in France, little is known about the epidemiology links between them. We have used the eight-locus multilocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis typing technique against a collection of 50 Bacillus anthracis isolates from France. There were eight distinct genotypes belonging to two dissimilar genetic clusters. Regional strain patterns were observed, with the B2 genotypes prevalent in southern France and the A1a genotypes found only in northern France.

Nucleolus organizer regions in Physalaemus cuvievi (Anura, Leptodactylidae), with evidence of a unique case of Ag-NOR variability.

PubMed

Silva, A P; Haddad, C F; Kasahara, S

1999-01-01

We studied ten specimens of Physalaemus cuvieri collected at different localities in Brazil using conventional staining and banding techniques. All specimens had 2n = 22. There were karyotypic variants: distinct patterns in the number and chromosome localization of Ag-NORs as well as in the corresponding secondary constrictions. Preliminary C-banding patterns obtained for specimens from two localities are also suggestive of karyotypic differentiation in P. cuvieri.

Hydrazine engine plume contamination mapping. [measuring instruments for rocket exhaust from liquid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirivella, J. E.

1975-01-01

Instrumentation for the measurement of plume exhaust specie deposition rates were developed and demonstrated. The instruments, two sets of quartz crystal microbalances, were designed for low temperature operation in the back flow and variable temperature operation in the core flow regions of an exhaust plume. These quartz crystal microbalances performed nominally, and measurements of exhaust specie deposition rates for 8400 number of pulses for a 0.1-lb monopropellant thruster are reported.

Biodiversity patterns of crustacean suprabenthic assemblages along an oligotrophic gradient in the bathyal Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almeida, Mariana; Frutos, Inmaculada; Tecchio, Samuele; Lampadariou, Nikolaos; Company, Joan B.; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Cunha, Marina R.

2017-03-01

Crustacean suprabenthic abundance, community structure, α-diversity (both taxonomic and trophic) and β-diversity were studied along a West-East gradient of oligotrophy in the deep Mediterranean Sea. The assemblages were sampled with a suprabenthic sledge in three regions (western, central and eastern basins) at three water depths (1200, 2000 and 3000 m) in May-June 2009. Environmental data were obtained at each sampling location including sediment properties, oceanographic variables near the seafloor and in the water column, and proxies of epipelagic productivity at the surface. Our results, concerning the crustacean component of the suprabenthos, showed complex trends in community structure and biodiversity across different spatial scales (longitudinal, bathymetric, and near-bottom distribution). A decrease in the number of species and abundance, accompanied by changes in the trophic structure of the assemblages were observed from West to East. In the eastern region the assemblages were impoverished in number of trophic guilds and trophic diversity. The West-East oligotrophic gradient was identified as the main driver in community structure as shown by the significant correlation with trophic environmental variables. Differences in community structure across regions were more marked at greater depths, while at the shallower sites assemblages were more similar. Within each basin, abundance, number of species and number of trophic groups decreased with depth, showing high turnover rates between 1200 and 2000 m depths. The small-scale (0-150 cm) vertical distribution of the suprabenthos was interpreted in relation to the species' functional traits (e.g. swimming activity, migratory behaviour, bottom dependence, feeding habits). Bottom-dependent and more mobile components of the suprabenthos were apparently responding differently to the various environmental challenges imposed by the large-scale longitudinal and bathymetric gradients. We propose that the bathyal suprabenthos in the Mediterranean Sea may be essentially modulated by environmental sorting, but while the more mobile faunal component has more efficient dispersal mechanisms, the bottom-dependent component may be affected by limited dispersal. However, this empirical interpretation has still to be proved given the important caveats of our study (e.g. typically low densities of the Mediterranean bathyal suprabenthos; limited number of samples; difficulties in standardization inherent to suprabenthic sampling operations in the deep sea).

Affected States Soft Independent Modeling by Class Analogy from the Relation Between Independent Variables, Number of Independent Variables and Sample Size

PubMed Central

Kanık, Emine Arzu; Temel, Gülhan Orekici; Erdoğan, Semra; Kaya, İrem Ersöz

2013-01-01

Objective: The aim of study is to introduce method of Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy (SIMCA), and to express whether the method is affected from the number of independent variables, the relationship between variables and sample size. Study Design: Simulation study. Material and Methods: SIMCA model is performed in two stages. In order to determine whether the method is influenced by the number of independent variables, the relationship between variables and sample size, simulations were done. Conditions in which sample sizes in both groups are equal, and where there are 30, 100 and 1000 samples; where the number of variables is 2, 3, 5, 10, 50 and 100; moreover where the relationship between variables are quite high, in medium level and quite low were mentioned. Results: Average classification accuracy of simulation results which were carried out 1000 times for each possible condition of trial plan were given as tables. Conclusion: It is seen that diagnostic accuracy results increase as the number of independent variables increase. SIMCA method is a method in which the relationship between variables are quite high, the number of independent variables are many in number and where there are outlier values in the data that can be used in conditions having outlier values. PMID:25207065

Affected States soft independent modeling by class analogy from the relation between independent variables, number of independent variables and sample size.

PubMed

Kanık, Emine Arzu; Temel, Gülhan Orekici; Erdoğan, Semra; Kaya, Irem Ersöz

2013-03-01

The aim of study is to introduce method of Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analogy (SIMCA), and to express whether the method is affected from the number of independent variables, the relationship between variables and sample size. Simulation study. SIMCA model is performed in two stages. In order to determine whether the method is influenced by the number of independent variables, the relationship between variables and sample size, simulations were done. Conditions in which sample sizes in both groups are equal, and where there are 30, 100 and 1000 samples; where the number of variables is 2, 3, 5, 10, 50 and 100; moreover where the relationship between variables are quite high, in medium level and quite low were mentioned. Average classification accuracy of simulation results which were carried out 1000 times for each possible condition of trial plan were given as tables. It is seen that diagnostic accuracy results increase as the number of independent variables increase. SIMCA method is a method in which the relationship between variables are quite high, the number of independent variables are many in number and where there are outlier values in the data that can be used in conditions having outlier values.

Determining a regional framework for assessing biotic integrity of virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smogor, Roy A.; Angermeier, P.L.

2001-01-01

The utility of an index of biotic integrity (IBI) depends on its ability to distinguish anthropogenic effects on biota amid natural biological variability. To enhance this ability, we examined fish assemblage data from least-disturbed stream sites in Virginia to determine the best way to regionally stratify natural variation in candidate IBI metrics and their scoring criteria. Specifically, we examined metric variation among physiographic regions, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ecoregions, and drainage basins to judge their utility as regions in which to develop and use distinct versions of the IBI for Virginia warmwater streams. Statewide, metrics differed most among physiographic regions; thus, we recommend their use as IBI regions. Largest differences were found for taxonomic metrics between coastal plain and mountain sites, particularly in numbers of native minnow (Cyprinidae), sunfish (Centrarchidae), and darter (Percidae) species. Trophic and reproductive metrics also differed between coastal plain and more-upland streams, presumably reflecting differences in functional adaptations of fishes to upland versus lowland stream habitats. We suggest three preliminary regional IBis for Virginia, each having a distinctive set of taxonomic, trophic, and reproductive metrics and corresponding scoring criteria.

Timing of the departure of ocean biogeochemical cycles from the preindustrial state.

PubMed

Christian, James R

2014-01-01

Changes in ocean chemistry and climate induced by anthropogenic CO2 affect a broad range of ocean biological and biogeochemical processes; these changes are already well underway. Direct effects of CO2 (e.g. on pH) are prominent among these, but climate model simulations with historical greenhouse gas forcing suggest that physical and biological processes only indirectly forced by CO2 (via the effect of atmospheric CO2 on climate) begin to show anthropogenically-induced trends as early as the 1920s. Dates of emergence of a number of representative ocean fields from the envelope of natural variability are calculated for global means and for spatial 'fingerprints' over a number of geographic regions. Emergence dates are consistent among these methods and insensitive to the exact choice of regions, but are generally earlier with more spatial information included. Emergence dates calculated for individual sampling stations are more variable and generally later, but means across stations are generally consistent with global emergence dates. The last sign reversal of linear trends calculated for periods of 20 or 30 years also functions as a diagnostic of emergence, and is generally consistent with other measures. The last sign reversal among 20 year trends is found to be a conservative measure (biased towards later emergence), while for 30 year trends it is found to have an early emergence bias, relative to emergence dates calculated by departure from the preindustrial mean. These results are largely independent of emission scenario, but the latest-emerging fields show a response to mitigation. A significant anthropogenic component of ocean variability has been present throughout the modern era of ocean observation.

Timing of the Departure of Ocean Biogeochemical Cycles from the Preindustrial State

PubMed Central

Christian, James R.

2014-01-01

Changes in ocean chemistry and climate induced by anthropogenic CO2 affect a broad range of ocean biological and biogeochemical processes; these changes are already well underway. Direct effects of CO2 (e.g. on pH) are prominent among these, but climate model simulations with historical greenhouse gas forcing suggest that physical and biological processes only indirectly forced by CO2 (via the effect of atmospheric CO2 on climate) begin to show anthropogenically-induced trends as early as the 1920s. Dates of emergence of a number of representative ocean fields from the envelope of natural variability are calculated for global means and for spatial ‘fingerprints’ over a number of geographic regions. Emergence dates are consistent among these methods and insensitive to the exact choice of regions, but are generally earlier with more spatial information included. Emergence dates calculated for individual sampling stations are more variable and generally later, but means across stations are generally consistent with global emergence dates. The last sign reversal of linear trends calculated for periods of 20 or 30 years also functions as a diagnostic of emergence, and is generally consistent with other measures. The last sign reversal among 20 year trends is found to be a conservative measure (biased towards later emergence), while for 30 year trends it is found to have an early emergence bias, relative to emergence dates calculated by departure from the preindustrial mean. These results are largely independent of emission scenario, but the latest-emerging fields show a response to mitigation. A significant anthropogenic component of ocean variability has been present throughout the modern era of ocean observation. PMID:25386910

Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland

PubMed Central

Jarzyna, Ingeborga; Obidziński, Artur; Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara; Sotek, Zofia; Pabjanek, Piotr; Pytlarczyk, Adam; Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela

2017-01-01

Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models’ assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km2 in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions. PMID:28926580

Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland.

PubMed

Mędrzycki, Piotr; Jarzyna, Ingeborga; Obidziński, Artur; Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara; Sotek, Zofia; Pabjanek, Piotr; Pytlarczyk, Adam; Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela

2017-01-01

Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models' assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km2 in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions.

Aridity drives plant biogeographical sub regions in the Caatinga, the largest tropical dry forest and woodland block in South America.

PubMed

Silva, Augusto C; Souza, Alexandre F

2018-01-01

Our aims were to quantify and map the plant sub regions of the the Caatinga, that covers 844,453 km2 and is the largest block of seasonally dry forest in South America. We performed spatial analyses of the largest dataset of woody plant distributions in this region assembled to date (of 2,666 shrub and tree species; 260 localities), compared these distributions with the current phytogeographic regionalizations, and investigated the potential environmental drivers of the floristic patterns in these sub regions. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover calculated as Simpson dissimilarity index. We applied an interpolation method to map NMDS axes of compositional variation over the entire extent of the Caatinga, and then classified the compositional dissimilarity according to the number of biogeographical sub regions identified a priori using k-means analysis. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate the influence of contemporary climatic productivity, topographic complexity, soil characteristics, climate stability since the last glacial maximum, and the human footprint in explaining the identified sub regions. We identified nine spatially cohesive biogeographical sub regions. Current productivity, as indicated by an aridity index, was the only explanatory variable retained in the best model, explaining nearly half of the floristic variability between sub regions. The highest rates of endemism within the Caatinga were in the Core and Periphery Chapada Diamantina sub regions. Our findings suggest that the topographic complexity, soil variation, and human footprint in the Caatinga act on woody plant distributions at local scales and not as determinants of broad floristic patterns. The lack of effect of climatic stability since the last glacial maximum probably results from the fact that a single measure of climatic stability does not adequately capture the highly dynamic climatic shifts the region suffered during the Pleistocene. There was limited overlap between our results and previous Caatinga classifications.

Aridity drives plant biogeographical sub regions in the Caatinga, the largest tropical dry forest and woodland block in South America

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Our aims were to quantify and map the plant sub regions of the the Caatinga, that covers 844,453 km2 and is the largest block of seasonally dry forest in South America. We performed spatial analyses of the largest dataset of woody plant distributions in this region assembled to date (of 2,666 shrub and tree species; 260 localities), compared these distributions with the current phytogeographic regionalizations, and investigated the potential environmental drivers of the floristic patterns in these sub regions. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover calculated as Simpson dissimilarity index. We applied an interpolation method to map NMDS axes of compositional variation over the entire extent of the Caatinga, and then classified the compositional dissimilarity according to the number of biogeographical sub regions identified a priori using k-means analysis. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate the influence of contemporary climatic productivity, topographic complexity, soil characteristics, climate stability since the last glacial maximum, and the human footprint in explaining the identified sub regions. We identified nine spatially cohesive biogeographical sub regions. Current productivity, as indicated by an aridity index, was the only explanatory variable retained in the best model, explaining nearly half of the floristic variability between sub regions. The highest rates of endemism within the Caatinga were in the Core and Periphery Chapada Diamantina sub regions. Our findings suggest that the topographic complexity, soil variation, and human footprint in the Caatinga act on woody plant distributions at local scales and not as determinants of broad floristic patterns. The lack of effect of climatic stability since the last glacial maximum probably results from the fact that a single measure of climatic stability does not adequately capture the highly dynamic climatic shifts the region suffered during the Pleistocene. There was limited overlap between our results and previous Caatinga classifications. PMID:29702668

Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purcell, Amanda

A number of studies indicate an apparent slowdown in the overall rise in global average surface temperature between roughly 1998 and 2014. Most models did not predict such a slowdown--a fact that stimulated a lot of new research on variability of Earth's climate system. At a September 2015 workshop, leading scientists gathered to discuss current understanding of climate variability on decadal timescales (10 to 30 years) and whether and how prediction of it might be improved. Many researchers have focused their attention on the climate system itself, which is known to vary across seasons, decades, and other timescales. Several naturalmore » variables produce "ups and downs" in the climate system, which are superimposed on the long-term warming trend due to human influence. Understanding decadal climate variability is important not only for assessing global climate change but also for improving decision making related to infrastructure, water resources, agriculture, energy, and other realms. Like the well-studied El Nino and La Nina interannual variations, decadal climate variability is associated with specific regional patterns of temperature and precipitation, such as heat waves, cold spells, and droughts. Several participants shared research that assesses decadal predictive capability of current models.« less

Perceived built environment and physical activity in U.S. women by sprawl and region.

PubMed

Troped, Philip J; Tamura, Kosuke; Whitcomb, Heather A; Laden, Francine

2011-11-01

A number of studies have demonstrated relationships between the perceived built environment and physical activity among adults. However, little is known about whether these associations differ by U.S. region and level of urban sprawl. To examine associations between the perceived built environment and physical activity in U.S. women by region and urban sprawl. Nurses' Health Study II participants (N=68,968) completed four perceived neighborhood environment survey items in 2005. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with meeting physical activity recommendations, adjusting for demographic and weight-status variables, and stratifying by region and sprawl. Data analyses were completed in 2011. Perceived proximity to shops/stores was positively associated with physical activity across regions and levels of sprawl (ORs=1.21-1.46). Perceived access to recreation facilities was also a positive physical activity correlate in most region-sprawl strata, with strongest relationships found in the West (ORs=1.31-1.70). Perceived crime and presence of sidewalks did not show statistically significant associations with physical activity in most region-sprawl strata, although ORs for perceived crime showed a consistent pattern of negative associations (ORs=0.60-0.95). A higher number of positive environmental attributes was associated with a greater odds of meeting physical activity recommendations. Findings indicate that perceived proximity to shops/stores and access to recreation facilities are important correlates of physical activity for women, irrespective of region or sprawl. Copyright © 2011 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Importance of the Regional Species Pool, Ecological Species Traits and Local Habitat Conditions for the Colonization of Restored River Reaches by Fish

PubMed Central

Stoll, Stefan; Kail, Jochem; Lorenz, Armin W.; Sundermann, Andrea; Haase, Peter

2014-01-01

It is commonly assumed that the colonization of restored river reaches by fish depends on the regional species pools; however, quantifications of the relationship between the composition of the regional species pool and restoration outcome are lacking. We analyzed data from 18 German river restoration projects and adjacent river reaches constituting the regional species pools of the restored reaches. We found that the ability of statistical models to describe the fish assemblages established in the restored reaches was greater when these models were based on ‘biotic’ variables relating to the regional species pool and the ecological traits of species rather than on ‘abiotic’ variables relating to the hydromorphological habitat structure of the restored habitats and descriptors of the restoration projects. For species presence in restored reaches, ‘biotic’ variables explained 34% of variability, with the occurrence rate of a species in the regional species pool being the most important variable, while ’abiotic’ variables explained only the negligible amount of 2% of variability. For fish density in restored reaches, about twice the amount of variability was explained by ‘biotic’ (38%) compared to ‘abiotic’ (21%) variables, with species density in the regional species pool being most important. These results indicate that the colonization of restored river reaches by fish is largely determined by the assemblages in the surrounding species pool. Knowledge of species presence and abundance in the regional species pool can be used to estimate the likelihood of fish species becoming established in restored reaches. PMID:24404187

Increased CNV-Region deletions in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) subjects in the ADNI sample

PubMed Central

Guffanti, Guia; Torri, Federica; Rasmussen, Jerod; Clark, Andrew P.; Lakatos, Anita; Turner, Jessica A.; Fallon, James H.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Weiner, Michael; Vawter, Marquis P.; Knowles, James A.; Potkin, Steven G.; Macciardi, Fabio

2014-01-01

We investigated the genome-wide distribution of CNVs in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) sample (146 with AD, 313 with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and 181 controls). Comparison of single CNVs between cases (MCI and AD) and controls shows overrepresentation of large heterozygous deletions in cases (p-value < 0.0001). The analysis of CNV-Regions identifies 44 copy number variable loci of heterozygous deletions, with more CNV-Regions among affected than controls (p = 0.005). Seven of the 44 CNV-Regions are nominally significant for association with cognitive impairment. We validated and confirmed our main findings with genome re-sequencing of selected patients and controls. The functional pathway analysis of the genes putatively affected by deletions of CNV-Regions reveals enrichment of genes implicated in axonal guidance, cell–cell adhesion, neuronal morphogenesis and differentiation. Our findings support the role of CNVs in AD, and suggest an association between large deletions and the development of cognitive impairment PMID:23583670

Blazar spectral variability as explained by a twisted inhomogeneous jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raiteri, C. M.; Villata, M.; Acosta-Pulido, J. A.; Agudo, I.; Arkharov, A. A.; Bachev, R.; Baida, G. V.; Benítez, E.; Borman, G. A.; Boschin, W.; Bozhilov, V.; Butuzova, M. S.; Calcidese, P.; Carnerero, M. I.; Carosati, D.; Casadio, C.; Castro-Segura, N.; Chen, W.-P.; Damljanovic, G.; D'Ammando, F.; di Paola, A.; Echevarría, J.; Efimova, N. V.; Ehgamberdiev, Sh. A.; Espinosa, C.; Fuentes, A.; Giunta, A.; Gómez, J. L.; Grishina, T. S.; Gurwell, M. A.; Hiriart, D.; Jermak, H.; Jordan, B.; Jorstad, S. G.; Joshi, M.; Kopatskaya, E. N.; Kuratov, K.; Kurtanidze, O. M.; Kurtanidze, S. O.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Larionov, V. M.; Larionova, E. G.; Larionova, L. V.; Lázaro, C.; Lin, C. S.; Malmrose, M. P.; Marscher, A. P.; Matsumoto, K.; McBreen, B.; Michel, R.; Mihov, B.; Minev, M.; Mirzaqulov, D. O.; Mokrushina, A. A.; Molina, S. N.; Moody, J. W.; Morozova, D. A.; Nazarov, S. V.; Nikolashvili, M. G.; Ohlert, J. M.; Okhmat, D. N.; Ovcharov, E.; Pinna, F.; Polakis, T. A.; Protasio, C.; Pursimo, T.; Redondo-Lorenzo, F. J.; Rizzi, N.; Rodriguez-Coira, G.; Sadakane, K.; Sadun, A. C.; Samal, M. R.; Savchenko, S. S.; Semkov, E.; Skiff, B. A.; Slavcheva-Mihova, L.; Smith, P. S.; Steele, I. A.; Strigachev, A.; Tammi, J.; Thum, C.; Tornikoski, M.; Troitskaya, Yu. V.; Troitsky, I. S.; Vasilyev, A. A.; Vince, O.

2017-12-01

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions—such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution—can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016–2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

Blazar spectral variability as explained by a twisted inhomogeneous jet.

PubMed

Raiteri, C M; Villata, M; Acosta-Pulido, J A; Agudo, I; Arkharov, A A; Bachev, R; Baida, G V; Benítez, E; Borman, G A; Boschin, W; Bozhilov, V; Butuzova, M S; Calcidese, P; Carnerero, M I; Carosati, D; Casadio, C; Castro-Segura, N; Chen, W-P; Damljanovic, G; D'Ammando, F; Di Paola, A; Echevarría, J; Efimova, N V; Ehgamberdiev, Sh A; Espinosa, C; Fuentes, A; Giunta, A; Gómez, J L; Grishina, T S; Gurwell, M A; Hiriart, D; Jermak, H; Jordan, B; Jorstad, S G; Joshi, M; Kopatskaya, E N; Kuratov, K; Kurtanidze, O M; Kurtanidze, S O; Lähteenmäki, A; Larionov, V M; Larionova, E G; Larionova, L V; Lázaro, C; Lin, C S; Malmrose, M P; Marscher, A P; Matsumoto, K; McBreen, B; Michel, R; Mihov, B; Minev, M; Mirzaqulov, D O; Mokrushina, A A; Molina, S N; Moody, J W; Morozova, D A; Nazarov, S V; Nikolashvili, M G; Ohlert, J M; Okhmat, D N; Ovcharov, E; Pinna, F; Polakis, T A; Protasio, C; Pursimo, T; Redondo-Lorenzo, F J; Rizzi, N; Rodriguez-Coira, G; Sadakane, K; Sadun, A C; Samal, M R; Savchenko, S S; Semkov, E; Skiff, B A; Slavcheva-Mihova, L; Smith, P S; Steele, I A; Strigachev, A; Tammi, J; Thum, C; Tornikoski, M; Troitskaya, Yu V; Troitsky, I S; Vasilyev, A A; Vince, O

2017-12-21

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions-such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution-can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016-2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

Using worldwide edaphic data to model plant species niches: An assessment at a continental extent

PubMed Central

Galvão, Franklin; Villalobos, Fabricio; De Marco Júnior, Paulo

2017-01-01

Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a broadly used tool in different fields of plant ecology. Despite the importance of edaphic conditions in determining the niche of terrestrial plant species, edaphic data have rarely been included in ENMs of plant species perhaps because such data are not available for many regions. Recently, edaphic data has been made available at a global scale allowing its potential inclusion and evaluation on ENM performance for plant species. Here, we take advantage of such data and address the following main questions: What is the influence of distinct predictor variables (e.g. climatic vs edaphic) on different ENM algorithms? and what is the relationship between the performance of different predictors and geographic characteristics of species? We used 125 plant species distributed over the Neotropical region to explore the effect on ENMs of using edaphic data available from the SoilGrids database and its combination with climatic data from the CHELSA database. In addition, we related these different predictor variables to geographic characteristics of the target species and different ENM algorithms. The use of different predictors (climatic, edaphic, and both) significantly affected model performance and spatial complexity of the predictions. We showed that the use of global edaphic plus climatic variables generates ENMs with similar or better accuracy compared to those constructed only with climate variables. Moreover, the performance of models considering these different predictors, separately or jointly, was related to geographic properties of species records, such as number and distribution range. The large geographic extent, the variability of environments and the different species’ geographical characteristics considered here allowed us to demonstrate that global edaphic data adds useful information for plant ENMs. This is particularly valuable for studies of species that are distributed in regions where more detailed information on soil properties is poor or does not even exist. PMID:29049298

NuSTAR and multifrequency study of the two high-redshift blazars S5 0836+710 and PKS 2149-303

DOE PAGES

Tagliaferri, Gianpiero; Ghisellini, G.; Perri, M.; ...

2015-07-09

Powerful blazars are flat-spectrum radio quasars whose emission is dominated by a Compton component peaking between a few hundred keV and a few hundred MeV. We observed two bright blazars, PKS 2149–306 at redshift z = 2.345 and S5 0836+710 at z = 2.172, in the hard X-ray band with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array satellite. Simultaneous soft-X-rays and UV–optical observations were performed with the Swift satellite, while near-infrared (near-IR) data were obtained with the Rapid Eye Mount telescope. To study their variability, we repeated these observations for both sources on a timescale of a few months. While no fastmore » variability was detected during a single observation, both sources were variable in the X-ray band, up to 50%, between the two observations, with larger variability at higher energies. No variability was detected in the optical/NIR band. These data, together with Fermi-Large Area Telescope, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, and other literature data, are then used to study the overall spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of these blazars. Although the jet nonthermal emission dominates the SED, it leaves the UV band unhidden, allowing us to detect the thermal emission of the disk and to estimate the black hole mass. The nonthermal emission is well reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model by the synchrotron, self-Compton, and external Compton processes. Our data are better reproduced if we assume that the location of the dissipation region of the jet, R diss, is in between the torus and the broad-line region. As a result, the observed variability is explained by changing a minimum number of model parameters by a very small amount.« less

Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

2009-04-01

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

NuSTAR AND MULTIFREQUENCY STUDY OF THE TWO HIGH-REDSHIFT BLAZARS S5 0836+710 AND PKS 2149–306

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagliaferri, G.; Ghisellini, G.; Covino, S.

Powerful blazars are flat-spectrum radio quasars whose emission is dominated by a Compton component peaking between a few hundred keV and a few hundred MeV. We observed two bright blazars, PKS 2149–306 at redshift z = 2.345 and S5 0836+710 at z = 2.172, in the hard X-ray band with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array satellite. Simultaneous soft-X-rays and UV–optical observations were performed with the Swift satellite, while near-infrared (near-IR) data were obtained with the Rapid Eye Mount telescope. To study their variability, we repeated these observations for both sources on a timescale of a few months. While no fastmore » variability was detected during a single observation, both sources were variable in the X-ray band, up to 50%, between the two observations, with larger variability at higher energies. No variability was detected in the optical/NIR band. These data, together with Fermi-Large Area Telescope, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, and other literature data, are then used to study the overall spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of these blazars. Although the jet nonthermal emission dominates the SED, it leaves the UV band unhidden, allowing us to detect the thermal emission of the disk and to estimate the black hole mass. The nonthermal emission is well reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model by the synchrotron, self-Compton, and external Compton processes. Our data are better reproduced if we assume that the location of the dissipation region of the jet, R{sub diss}, is in between the torus and the broad-line region. The observed variability is explained by changing a minimum number of model parameters by a very small amount.« less

NuSTAR and multifrequency study of the two high-redshift blazars S5 0836+710 and PKS 2149-303

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tagliaferri, Gianpiero; Ghisellini, G.; Perri, M.

Powerful blazars are flat-spectrum radio quasars whose emission is dominated by a Compton component peaking between a few hundred keV and a few hundred MeV. We observed two bright blazars, PKS 2149–306 at redshift z = 2.345 and S5 0836+710 at z = 2.172, in the hard X-ray band with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array satellite. Simultaneous soft-X-rays and UV–optical observations were performed with the Swift satellite, while near-infrared (near-IR) data were obtained with the Rapid Eye Mount telescope. To study their variability, we repeated these observations for both sources on a timescale of a few months. While no fastmore » variability was detected during a single observation, both sources were variable in the X-ray band, up to 50%, between the two observations, with larger variability at higher energies. No variability was detected in the optical/NIR band. These data, together with Fermi-Large Area Telescope, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer, and other literature data, are then used to study the overall spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of these blazars. Although the jet nonthermal emission dominates the SED, it leaves the UV band unhidden, allowing us to detect the thermal emission of the disk and to estimate the black hole mass. The nonthermal emission is well reproduced by a one-zone leptonic model by the synchrotron, self-Compton, and external Compton processes. Our data are better reproduced if we assume that the location of the dissipation region of the jet, R diss, is in between the torus and the broad-line region. As a result, the observed variability is explained by changing a minimum number of model parameters by a very small amount.« less

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Co-variability of smoke and fire in the Amazon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Amit Kumar; Lehahn, Yoav; Rudich, Yinon; Koren, Ilan

2015-05-01

The Amazon basin is a hot spot of anthropogenically-driven biomass burning, accounting for approximately 15% of total global fire emissions. It is essential to accurately measure these fires for robust regional and global modeling of key environmental processes. Here we have explored the link between spatio-temporal variability patterns in the Amazon basin's fires and the resulting smoke loading using 11 years (2002-2012) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations. Focusing on the peak burning season (July-October), our analysis shows strong inter-annual correlation between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and two MODIS fire products: fire radiative power (FRP) and fire pixel counts (FC). Among these two fire products, the FC better indicates the amount of smoke in the basin, as represented in remotely sensed AOD data. This fire product is significantly correlated both with regional AOD retrievals from MODIS and with point AOD measurements from the AERONET stations, pointing to spatial homogenization of the smoke over the basin on a seasonal time scale. However, MODIS AODs are found better than AERONET AODs observation for linking between smoke and fire. Furthermore, MODIS AOD measurements are strongly correlated with number of fires ∼10-20 to the east, most likely due to westward advection of smoke by the wind. These results can be rationalized by the regional topography and the wind regimes. Our analysis can improve data assimilation of satellite and ground-based observations into regional and global model studies, thus improving the assessment of the environmental and climatic impacts of frequency and distribution variability of the Amazon basin's fires. We also provide the optimal spatial and temporal scales for ground-based observations, which could be used for such applications.

Discordant expression and variable numbers of neighboring GGA- and GAA-rich triplet repeats in the 3' untranslated regions of two groups of messenger RNAs encoded by the rat polymeric immunoglobulin receptor gene.

PubMed Central

Koch, K S; Gleiberman, A S; Aoki, T; Leffert, H L; Feren, A; Jones, A L; Fodor, E J

1995-01-01

An unusual S1-nuclease sensitive microsatellite (STMS) has been found in the single copy, rat polymeric immunoglobulin receptor gene (PIGR) terminal exon. In Fisher rats, elements within or beyond the STMS are expressed variably in the 3' untranslated regions (3'UTRs) of two 'Groups' of PIGR-encoded hepatic mRNAs (pIg-R) during liver regeneration. STMS elements include neighboring constant regions (a 60-bp d[GA]-rich tract with a chi-like octamer, followed by 15 tandem d[GGA] repeats) that merge directly with 36 or 39 tandem d[GAA] repeats (Fisher or Wistar strains, respectively) interrupted by d[AA] between their 5th-6th repeat units. The Wistar STMS is flanked upstream by two regions of nearly contiguous d[CA] or d[CT] repeats in the 3' end of intron 8; and downstream, by a 283 bp 'unit' containing several inversions at its 5' end, and two polyadenylation signals at its 3' end. The 283 nt unit is expressed in Group 1 pIg-R mRNAs; but it is absent in the Group 2 family so that their GAA repeats merge with their poly A tails. In contrast to genomic sequence, GGA triplet repeats are amplified (n > or = 24-26), whereas GAA triplet repeats are truncated variably (n < or = 9-37) and expressed uninterruptedly in both mRNA Groups. These results suggest that 3' end processing of the rat PIGR gene may involve misalignment, slippage and premature termination of RNA polymerase II. The function of this unusual processing and possible roles of chi-like octamers in quiescent or extrahepatic tissues are discussed. Images PMID:7739889

The phosphotransferase system-dependent sucrose utilization regulon in enteropathogenic Escherichia coli strains is located in a variable chromosomal region containing iap sequences.

PubMed

Treviño-Quintanilla, Luis Gerardo; Escalante, Adelfo; Caro, Alma Delia; Martínez, Alfredo; González, Ricardo; Puente, José Luis; Bolívar, Francisco; Gosset, Guillermo

2007-01-01

The capacity to utilize sucrose as a carbon and energy source (Scr(+) phenotype) is a highly variable trait among Escherichia coli strains. In this study, seven enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC) strains from different sources were studied for their capacity to grow using sucrose. Liquid media cultures showed that all analyzed strains have the Scr(+) phenotype and two distinct groups were defined: one of five and another of two strains displaying doubling times of 67 and 125 min, respectively. The genes conferring the Scr(+) phenotype in one of the fast-growing strains (T19) were cloned and sequenced. Comparative sequence analysis revealed that this strain possesses the scr regulon genes scrKYABR, encoding phosphoenolpyruvate:phosphotransferase system-dependent sucrose transport and utilization activities. Transcript level quantification revealed sucrose-dependent induction of scrK and scrR genes in fast-growing strains, whereas no transcripts were detected in slow-growing strains. Sequence comparison analysis revealed that the scr genes in strain T19 are almost identical to those present in the scr regulon of prototype EPEC E2348/69 and in both strains, the scr genes are inserted in the chromosomal intergenic region of hypothetical genes ygcE and ygcF. Comparison of the ygcE-ygcF intergenic region sequence of strains MG1655, enterohemorrhagic EDL933, uropathogenic ECFT073 and EPEC T19-E2348/69 revealed that the number of extragenic highly repeated iap sequences corresponded to nine, four, two and none, respectively. These results show that the iap sequence-containing chromosomal ygcE-ygcF intergenic region is highly variable in E. coli. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Focused maternity care in Ghana: results of a cluster analysis.

PubMed

Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Pavlova, Milena; Groot, Wim

2016-08-17

Ghana missed out in attaining Millennium Development Goal 5 in 2015. The provision of adequate prenatal and postnatal care remains problematic, with poor evidence on women's views on met and unmet maternity care needs across all regions in Ghana. This paper examines maternal care utilization in Ghana by applying WHO indicators for focused maternal care utilization. Two-step cluster analysis segregated women into groups based on the components of the maternity care used. Using cluster membership variables as dependent variables, we applied multinomial and binary regression to examine associations of care use with individual, household and regional characteristics. We identified three patterns of care use: adequate, less and least adquate care. The presence of a female and skilled provider is an indicator of adequate care. Women in Volta, Upper West, Northern and Western regions received less adequate care compared with other regions. Supply-related factors (drugs availability, distance/transport, health insurance ownership, rural residence) were associated with adequacy of care. The lack of female autonomy, widowed/divorced women, age and parity were associated with less adequate care. Care patterns were distinctively associated with the quality of health care support (skilled and female attendant) instead of with the number of visits made to the facility. Across regions and within rural settings, disparities exist, often compounded by supply-related factors. Efforts to address skilled workforce shortages, greater accountability for quality and equity, improving women motivation for care seeking and active participation are important for maternity care in Ghana.

Using simulation and data envelopment analysis to evaluate Iraqi regions in producing strategic crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaloob, Ibrahim Z.; Ramli, Razamin; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd

2014-12-01

Productivity of the agriculture sector in Iraq has yet to reach an acceptable level. In this paper, we introduce a practical method to help manage Iraqi agriculture sector to control resources and increase production to meet the modern century requirements of good crops. These important resources are identified as water, fertilizer, natural fertilizer, pesticides and labour. The current agricultural patterns in Iraq affect the strategic crops cultivation in the country and lessen agricultural production to some life-threatening limits. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric tool, is proposed to identify solutions that can maximize farmers' net benefit making an optimal use of the five resources. This model also improves optimal mix of the resources. In reference to the production of each one of the three strategic crops in Iraq, the DEA model is used to find the efficiency of one region among four others in its agriculture sector, with the main problem being the constraint in the number of lands available in the situation. Hence, the simulation technique is used to generate additional regions to the four main regions adopted. This is to resolve the constriction of DEA when the decision making unit is less than the number of variables (outputs and inputs). The result is expected to show the efficiency of each of the evaluated region.

Long-term cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, particle number size distribution and chemical composition measurements at regionally representative observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Decesari, Stefano; Henzing, Bas; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Pöhlker, Mira L.; Brito, Joel; Bougiatioti, Aikaterini; Kristensson, Adam; Kalivitis, Nikos; Stavroulas, Iasonas; Carbone, Samara; Jefferson, Anne; Park, Minsu; Schlag, Patrick; Iwamoto, Yoko; Aalto, Pasi; Äijälä, Mikko; Bukowiecki, Nicolas; Ehn, Mikael; Frank, Göran; Fröhlich, Roman; Frumau, Arnoud; Herrmann, Erik; Herrmann, Hartmut; Holzinger, Rupert; Kos, Gerard; Kulmala, Markku; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Nenes, Athanasios; O'Dowd, Colin; Petäjä, Tuukka; Picard, David; Pöhlker, Christopher; Pöschl, Ulrich; Poulain, Laurent; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry; Swietlicki, Erik; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Artaxo, Paulo; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Ogren, John; Matsuki, Atsushi; Yum, Seong Soo; Stratmann, Frank; Baltensperger, Urs; Gysel, Martin

2018-02-01

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) constitute the single largest uncertainty in anthropogenic radiative forcing. To reduce the uncertainties and gain more confidence in the simulation of ACI, models need to be evaluated against observations, in particular against measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here we present a data set - ready to be used for model validation - of long-term observations of CCN number concentrations, particle number size distributions and chemical composition from 12 sites on 3 continents. Studied environments include coastal background, rural background, alpine sites, remote forests and an urban surrounding. Expectedly, CCN characteristics are highly variable across site categories. However, they also vary within them, most strongly in the coastal background group, where CCN number concentrations can vary by up to a factor of 30 within one season. In terms of particle activation behaviour, most continental stations exhibit very similar activation ratios (relative to particles > 20 nm) across the range of 0.1 to 1.0 % supersaturation. At the coastal sites the transition from particles being CCN inactive to becoming CCN active occurs over a wider range of the supersaturation spectrum. Several stations show strong seasonal cycles of CCN number concentrations and particle number size distributions, e.g. at Barrow (Arctic haze in spring), at the alpine stations (stronger influence of polluted boundary layer air masses in summer), the rain forest (wet and dry season) or Finokalia (wildfire influence in autumn). The rural background and urban sites exhibit relatively little variability throughout the year, while short-term variability can be high especially at the urban site. The average hygroscopicity parameter, κ, calculated from the chemical composition of submicron particles was highest at the coastal site of Mace Head (0.6) and lowest at the rain forest station ATTO (0.2-0.3). We performed closure studies based on κ-Köhler theory to predict CCN number concentrations. The ratio of predicted to measured CCN concentrations is between 0.87 and 1.4 for five different types of κ. The temporal variability is also well captured, with Pearson correlation coefficients exceeding 0.87. Information on CCN number concentrations at many locations is important to better characterise ACI and their radiative forcing. But long-term comprehensive aerosol particle characterisations are labour intensive and costly. Hence, we recommend operating migrating-CCNCs to conduct collocated CCN number concentration and particle number size distribution measurements at individual locations throughout one year at least to derive a seasonally resolved hygroscopicity parameter. This way, CCN number concentrations can only be calculated based on continued particle number size distribution information and greater spatial coverage of long-term measurements can be achieved.

A global positioning measurement system for regional geodesy in the caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renzetti, N. A.

1986-11-01

Low cost, portable receivers using signals from satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS) will enable precision geodetic observations to be made on a large scale. A number of important geophysical questions relating to plate-motion kinematics and dynamics can be addressed with this measurement capability. We describe a plan to design and validate a GPS-based geodetic system, and to demonstrate its capability in California, Mexico and the Caribbean region. The Caribbean program is a prototype for a number of regional geodetic networks to be globally distributed. In 1985, efforts will be concentrated on understanding and minimizing error sources. Two dominant sources of error are uncertainties in the orbit ephemeris of the GPS satellites, and uncertainties in the correction for signal delay due to variable tropospheric water vapor. Orbit ephemeris uncertainties can be minimized by performing simultaneous satellite observations with GPS receivers at known (fiducial) points. Water vapor corrections can be made by performing simultaneous line-of-sight measurements of integrated water vapor content with ground-based water vapor radiometers. Specific experiments to validate both concepts are outlined. Caribbean measurements will begin in late 1985 or early 1986. Key areas of measurement are the northern strike-slip boundary, and the western convergent boundary. Specific measurement plans in both regions are described.

Interexaminer variation of minutia markup on latent fingerprints.

PubMed

Ulery, Bradford T; Hicklin, R Austin; Roberts, Maria Antonia; Buscaglia, JoAnn

2016-07-01

Latent print examiners often differ in the number of minutiae they mark during analysis of a latent, and also during comparison of a latent with an exemplar. Differences in minutia counts understate interexaminer variability: examiners' markups may have similar minutia counts but differ greatly in which specific minutiae were marked. We assessed variability in minutia markup among 170 volunteer latent print examiners. Each provided detailed markup documenting their examinations of 22 latent-exemplar pairs of prints randomly assigned from a pool of 320 pairs. An average of 12 examiners marked each latent. The primary factors associated with minutia reproducibility were clarity, which regions of the prints examiners chose to mark, and agreement on value or comparison determinations. In clear areas (where the examiner was "certain of the location, presence, and absence of all minutiae"), median reproducibility was 82%; in unclear areas, median reproducibility was 46%. Differing interpretations regarding which regions should be marked (e.g., when there is ambiguity in the continuity of a print) contributed to variability in minutia markup: especially in unclear areas, marked minutiae were often far from the nearest minutia marked by a majority of examiners. Low reproducibility was also associated with differences in value or comparison determinations. Lack of standardization in minutia markup and unfamiliarity with test procedures presumably contribute to the variability we observed. We have identified factors accounting for interexaminer variability; implementing standards for detailed markup as part of documentation and focusing future training efforts on these factors may help to facilitate transparency and reduce subjectivity in the examination process. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Comparison of regional and seasonal changes and trends in daily surface temperature extremes over India and its subregions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.

Did Chile's traffic law reform push police enforcement? Understanding Chile's traffic fatalities and injuries reduction.

PubMed

Nazif-Munoz, José Ignacio; Quesnel-Vallée, Amélie; van den Berg, Axel

2015-06-01

The objective of the current study is to determine to what extent the reduction of Chile's traffic fatalities and injuries during 2000-2012 was related to the police traffic enforcement increment registered after the introduction of its 2005 traffic law reform. A unique dataset with assembled information from public institutions and analyses based on ordinary least square and robust random effects models was carried out. Dependent variables were traffic fatality and severe injury rates per population and vehicle fleet. Independent variables were: (1) presence of new national traffic law; (2) police officers per population; (3) number of traffic tickets per police officer; and (4) interaction effect of number of traffic tickets per police officer with traffic law reform. Oil prices, alcohol consumption, proportion of male population 15-24 years old, unemployment, road infrastructure investment, years' effects and regions' effects represented control variables. Empirical estimates from instrumental variables suggest that the enactment of the traffic law reform in interaction with number of traffic tickets per police officer is significantly associated with a decrease of 8% in traffic fatalities and 7% in severe injuries. Piecewise regression model results for the 2007-2012 period suggest that police traffic enforcement reduced traffic fatalities by 59% and severe injuries by 37%. Findings suggest that traffic law reforms in order to have an effect on both traffic fatality and injury rates reduction require changes in police enforcement practices. Last, this case also illustrates how the diffusion of successful road safety practices globally promoted by WHO and World Bank can be an important influence for enhancing national road safety practices. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

[Soil and forest structure in the Colombian Amazon].

PubMed

Calle-Rendón, Bayron R; Moreno, Flavio; Cárdenas López, Dairon

2011-09-01

Forests structural differences could result of environmental variations at different scales. Because soils are an important component of plant's environment, it is possible that edaphic and structural variables are associated and that, in consequence, spatial autocorrelation occurs. This paper aims to answer two questions: (1) are structural and edaphic variables associated at local scale in a terra firme forest of Colombian Amazonia? and (2) are these variables regionalized at the scale of work? To answer these questions we analyzed the data of a 6ha plot established in a terra firme forest of the Amacayacu National Park. Structural variables included basal area and density of large trees (diameter > or = 10cm) (Gdos and Ndos), basal area and density of understory individuals (diameter < 10cm) (Gsot and Nsot) and number of species of large trees (sp). Edaphic variables included were pH, organic matter, P, Mg, Ca, K, Al, sand, silt and clay. Structural and edaphic variables were reduced through a principal component analysis (PCA); then, the association between edaphic and structural components from PCA was evaluated by multiple regressions. The existence of regionalization of these variables was studied through isotropic variograms, and autocorrelated variables were spatially mapped. PCA found two significant components for structure, corresponding to the structure of large trees (G, Gdos, Ndos and sp) and of small trees (N, Nsot and Gsot), which explained 43.9% and 36.2% of total variance, respectively. Four components were identified for edaphic variables, which globally explained 81.9% of total variance and basically represent drainage and soil fertility. Regression analyses were significant (p < 0.05) and showed that the structure of both large and small trees is associated with greater sand contents and low soil fertility, though they explained a low proportion of total variability (R2 was 4.9% and 16.5% for the structure of large trees and small tress, respectively). Variables with spatial autocorrelation were the structure of small trees, Al, silt, and sand. Among them, Nsot and sand content showed similar patterns of spatial distribution inside the plot.

Dynamic Segmentation Of Behavior Patterns Based On Quantity Value Movement Using Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangadji, Iriansyah; Arvio, Yozika; Indrianto

2018-03-01

to understand by analyzing the pattern of changes in value movements that can dynamically vary over a given period with relative accuracy, an equipment is required based on the utilization of technical working principles or specific analytical method. This will affect the level of validity of the output that will occur from this system. Subtractive clustering is based on the density (potential) size of data points in a space (variable). The basic concept of subtractive clustering is to determine the regions in a variable that has high potential for the surrounding points. In this paper result is segmentation of behavior pattern based on quantity value movement. It shows the number of clusters is formed and that has many members.

Neural, electrophysiological and anatomical basis of brain-network variability and its characteristic changes in mental disorders.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Cheng, Wei; Liu, Zhaowen; Zhang, Kai; Lei, Xu; Yao, Ye; Becker, Benjamin; Liu, Yicen; Kendrick, Keith M; Lu, Guangming; Feng, Jianfeng

2016-08-01

SEE MATTAR ET AL DOI101093/AWW151 FOR A SCIENTIFIC COMMENTARY ON THIS ARTICLE: Functional brain networks demonstrate significant temporal variability and dynamic reconfiguration even in the resting state. Currently, most studies investigate temporal variability of brain networks at the scale of single (micro) or whole-brain (macro) connectivity. However, the mechanism underlying time-varying properties remains unclear, as the coupling between brain network variability and neural activity is not readily apparent when analysed at either micro or macroscales. We propose an intermediate (meso) scale analysis and characterize temporal variability of the functional architecture associated with a particular region. This yields a topography of variability that reflects the whole-brain and, most importantly, creates an analytical framework to establish the fundamental relationship between variability of regional functional architecture and its neural activity or structural connectivity. We find that temporal variability reflects the dynamical reconfiguration of a brain region into distinct functional modules at different times and may be indicative of brain flexibility and adaptability. Primary and unimodal sensory-motor cortices demonstrate low temporal variability, while transmodal areas, including heteromodal association areas and limbic system, demonstrate the high variability. In particular, regions with highest variability such as hippocampus/parahippocampus, inferior and middle temporal gyrus, olfactory gyrus and caudate are all related to learning, suggesting that the temporal variability may indicate the level of brain adaptability. With simultaneously recorded electroencephalography/functional magnetic resonance imaging and functional magnetic resonance imaging/diffusion tensor imaging data, we also find that variability of regional functional architecture is modulated by local blood oxygen level-dependent activity and α-band oscillation, and is governed by the ratio of intra- to inter-community structural connectivity. Application of the mesoscale variability measure to multicentre datasets of three mental disorders and matched controls involving 1180 subjects reveals that those regions demonstrating extreme, i.e. highest/lowest variability in controls are most liable to change in mental disorders. Specifically, we draw attention to the identification of diametrically opposing patterns of variability changes between schizophrenia and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder/autism. Regions of the default-mode network demonstrate lower variability in patients with schizophrenia, but high variability in patients with autism/attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, compared with respective controls. In contrast, subcortical regions, especially the thalamus, show higher variability in schizophrenia patients, but lower variability in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The changes in variability of these regions are also closely related to symptom scores. Our work provides insights into the dynamic organization of the resting brain and how it changes in brain disorders. The nodal variability measure may also be potentially useful as a predictor for learning and neural rehabilitation. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cash, Benjamin A.; Manganello, Julia V.; Kinter, James L.

2017-08-01

Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. We focus on two contiguous but geographically and dynamically diverse regions: the Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (70-100E, 10-30 N) and the nearby mountainous area of Pakistan and Afghanistan (60-75E, 23-39 N). Forecast skill is assessed using the Sign test framework, a rigorous statistical method that can be applied to non-Gaussian variables such as precipitation and to different ensemble sizes without introducing bias. We find that models show significant systematic error in both precipitation and temperature for both regions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) consistently yields the lowest systematic error and the highest forecast skill for both regions and variables. However, we also find that the MMEM consistently provides a statistically significant increase in skill over climatology only in the first month of the forecast. While the MMEM tends to provide higher overall skill than climatology later in the forecast, the differences are not significant at the 95% level. We also find that MMEMs constructed with a relatively small number of ensemble members per model can equal or outperform MMEMs constructed with more members in skill. This suggests some ensemble members either provide no contribution to overall skill or even detract from it.

About climate variabilitiy leading the hydric condition of the soil in the rainfed region of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, V. C.; Penalba, O. C.

2013-05-01

Extreme events of temperature and rainfall have a socio-economic impact in the rainfed agriculture production region in Argentina. The magnitude of the impact can be analyzed through the water balance which integrates the characteristics of the soil and climate conditions. Changes observed in climate variables during the last decades affected the components of the water balance. As a result, a displacement of the agriculture border towards the west was produced, improving the agricultural production of the region. The objective of this work is to analyze how the variability of rainfall and temperature leads the hydric condition of the soil, with special focus on extreme events. The hydric conditions of the soil (HC= Excess- Deficit) were estimated from the monthly water balance (Thornthwaite and Mather method, 1957), using monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) and monthly accumulated rainfall (R) for 33 stations (period 1970-2006). Information of temperature and rainfall was provided by National Weather Service and the effective capacity of soil water was considered from Forte Lay and Spescha (2001). An agricultural extreme condition occurs when soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate or excessive for the development of the crops. In this study, we define an extreme event when the variable is less (greater) than its 20% and 10% (80% and 90%) percentile. In order to evaluate how sensitive is the HC to water and heat stress in the region, different conditional probabilities were evaluated. There is a weaker response of HC to extreme low PET while extreme low R leads high values of HC. However, this behavior is not always observed, especially in the western region where extreme high and low PET show a stronger influence over the HC. Finally, to analyze the temporal variability of extreme PET and R, leading hydric condition of the soil, the number of stations presenting extreme conditions was computed for each month. As an example, interesting results were observed for April. During this month, the water recharge of the soil is crucial to let the winter crops manage with the scarce rainfalls occurring in the following months. In 1970, 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1997 more than 50% of the stations were under extreme high PET; while 1970, 1974, 1978 and 1988 presented more than 40% under extreme low R. Thus, the 70s was the more threatened decade of the period. Since the 80s (except for 1997), extreme dry events due to one variable or the other are mostly presented separately, over smaller areas. The response of the spatial distribution of HC is stronger when both variables present extreme conditions. In particular, during 1997 the region presents extreme low values of HC as a consequence of extreme low R and high PET. Communities dependent on agriculture are highly sensitive to climate variability and its extremes. In the studied region, it was shown that scarce water and heat stress contribute to the resulting hydric condition, producing strong impact over different productive activities. Extreme temperature seems to have a stronger influence over extreme unfavorable hydric conditions.

On the competition among aerosol number, size and composition in predicting CCN variability: a multi-annual field study in an urbanized desert.

PubMed

Crosbie, E; Youn, J-S; Balch, B; Wonaschütz, A; Shingler, T; Wang, Z; Conant, W C; Betterton, E A; Sorooshian, A

2015-02-10

A 2-year data set of measured CCN (cloud condensation nuclei) concentrations at 0.2 % supersaturation is combined with aerosol size distribution and aerosol composition data to probe the effects of aerosol number concentrations, size distribution and composition on CCN patterns. Data were collected over a period of 2 years (2012-2014) in central Tucson, Arizona: a significant urban area surrounded by a sparsely populated desert. Average CCN concentrations are typically lowest in spring (233 cm -3 ), highest in winter (430 cm -3 ) and have a secondary peak during the North American monsoon season (July to September; 372 cm -3 ). There is significant variability outside of seasonal patterns, with extreme concentrations (1 and 99 % levels) ranging from 56 to 1945 cm -3 as measured during the winter, the season with highest variability. Modeled CCN concentrations based on fixed chemical composition achieve better closure in winter, with size and number alone able to predict 82% of the variance in CCN concentration. Changes in aerosol chemical composition are typically aligned with changes in size and aerosol number, such that hygroscopicity can be parameterized even though it is still variable. In summer, models based on fixed chemical composition explain at best only 41% (pre-monsoon) and 36% (monsoon) of the variance. This is attributed to the effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, the competition between new particle formation and condensational growth, the complex interaction of meteorology, regional and local emissions and multi-phase chemistry during the North American monsoon. Chemical composition is found to be an important factor for improving predictability in spring and on longer timescales in winter. Parameterized models typically exhibit improved predictive skill when there are strong relationships between CCN concentrations and the prevailing meteorology and dominant aerosol physicochemical processes, suggesting that similar findings could be possible in other locations with comparable climates and geography.

Strategies for improving approximate Bayesian computation tests for synchronous diversification.

PubMed

Overcast, Isaac; Bagley, Justin C; Hickerson, Michael J

2017-08-24

Estimating the variability in isolation times across co-distributed taxon pairs that may have experienced the same allopatric isolating mechanism is a core goal of comparative phylogeography. The use of hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and coalescent models to infer temporal dynamics of lineage co-diversification has been a contentious topic in recent years. Key issues that remain unresolved include the choice of an appropriate prior on the number of co-divergence events (Ψ), as well as the optimal strategies for data summarization. Through simulation-based cross validation we explore the impact of the strategy for sorting summary statistics and the choice of prior on Ψ on the estimation of co-divergence variability. We also introduce a new setting (β) that can potentially improve estimation of Ψ by enforcing a minimal temporal difference between pulses of co-divergence. We apply this new method to three empirical datasets: one dataset each of co-distributed taxon pairs of Panamanian frogs and freshwater fishes, and a large set of Neotropical butterfly sister-taxon pairs. We demonstrate that the choice of prior on Ψ has little impact on inference, but that sorting summary statistics yields substantially more reliable estimates of co-divergence variability despite violations of assumptions about exchangeability. We find the implementation of β improves estimation of Ψ, with improvement being most dramatic given larger numbers of taxon pairs. We find equivocal support for synchronous co-divergence for both of the Panamanian groups, but we find considerable support for asynchronous divergence among the Neotropical butterflies. Our simulation experiments demonstrate that using sorted summary statistics results in improved estimates of the variability in divergence times, whereas the choice of hyperprior on Ψ has negligible effect. Additionally, we demonstrate that estimating the number of pulses of co-divergence across co-distributed taxon-pairs is improved by applying a flexible buffering regime over divergence times. This improves the correlation between Ψ and the true variability in isolation times and allows for more meaningful interpretation of this hyperparameter. This will allow for more accurate identification of the number of temporally distinct pulses of co-divergence that generated the diversification pattern of a given regional assemblage of sister-taxon-pairs.

Geography of primary mental health care through the Better Access initiative in South Australia 2006-2010.

PubMed

Carson, Dean; Bidargaddi, Niranjan; Schrader, Geoffrey; Allison, Stephen; Jones, Gabrielle Margaret; Bastiampillai, Tarun; Strobel, Jörg

2016-06-01

To examine how the rates of the use of particular face-to-face primary mental health care services changed in the first 4 years (2006-2010) of the Better Access initiative in both urban and rural regions of South Australia. Time-series analysis of the number of psychology session, psychiatry assessment and general practitioner care plan services recorded in Medicare Australia data. South Australia. Pre-existing data set of South Australian residents who accessed Medicare between 2006 and 2010 MAIN OBJECTIVE MEASURE: Number of services per 100 000 population (service rate). Psychology session service rates increased in all regions, but continued to follow a 'location gradient', being higher in areas closer to Adelaide and lower in areas more distant from Adelaide. Psychiatry assessment service rates increased in Adelaide but did not change in other regions. Rates in remote areas were subject to substantial variation over time. General practitioner care plan service rates increased in Adelaide and in the Riverland, but declined in the Murray Mallee region. Overall, service rates increased in Adelaide and nearby regions, but the results for rural and remote regions were mixed. Possible explanations for the geographical variability include population characteristics (such as socio-economic status), methods of service delivery (visiting practitioners, telepsych), the relative proportion of total health services provided by general practitioners versus other practitioners, or real variations in the need for primary mental health services. © 2015 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Perceived Built Environment and Physical Activity in U.S. Women by Sprawl and Region

PubMed Central

Troped, Philip J.; Tamura, Kosuke; Whitcomb, Heather A.; Laden, Francine

2012-01-01

Background A number of studies have demonstrated relationships between the perceived built environment and physical activity among adults. However, little is known about whether these associations differ by U.S. region and level of urban sprawl. Purpose To examine associations between the perceived built environment and physical activity in U.S. women by region and urban sprawl. Methods Nurses’ Health Study II participants (N = 68,968) completed four perceived neighborhood environment survey items in 2005. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with meeting physical activity recommendations, adjusting for demographic and weight-status variables, and stratifying by region and sprawl. Data analyses were completed in 2011. Results Perceived proximity to shops/stores was positively associated with physical activity across regions and levels of sprawl (ORs = 1.21 to 1.46). Perceived access to recreation facilities was also a positive physical activity correlate in most region–sprawl strata with strongest relationships found in the West (ORs = 1.31 to 1.70). Perceived crime and presence of sidewalks did not show statistically significant associations with physical activity in most region–sprawl strata, although ORs for perceived crime showed a consistent pattern of negative associations (ORs from 0.60 to 0.95). A higher number of positive environmental attributes was associated with a greater odds of meeting physical activity recommendations. Conclusions Findings indicate that perceived proximity to shops/stores and access to recreation facilities are important correlates of physical activity for women, irrespective of region or sprawl. PMID:22011417

Relationship between the rs1414334 C/G polymorphism in the HTR2C gene and smoking in patients treated with atypical antipsychotics.

PubMed

Rico-Gomis, José María; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Triano-García, Irene; Mahecha-García, Luis Fabián; García-Monsalve, Ana; Navarro-Ruiz, Andrés; Villagordo-Peñalver, Berta; Martínez-Hortelano, Alicia; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2018-04-15

An association has been found between the C allele of the rs1414334 polymorphism in the HTR2C gene and the metabolic syndrome in psychiatric patients. However, no study has yet evaluated whether this allele is associated with smoking. To assess this issue, therefore, we performed a cross-sectional study with a sample of 166 adult patients treated with atypical antipsychotics in 2012-2013 in a region of Spain. The primary variable was the presence of the C allele of the rs1414334 polymorphism in the HTR2C gene. Secondary variables were the number of pack-years (number of cigarettes per day x number of smoking years ÷ 20), age, gender, schizophrenia, years since diagnosis, metabolic syndrome criteria and SCORE. A stepwise binary logistic regression model was constructed to determine associations between primary and secondary variables and their area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. Of the total sample, 33 patients (19.9%) had the C allele of the polymorphism analyzed. Mean cigarette consumption was 11.6 pack-years. The multivariate analysis showed the following factors as associated with the polymorphism: higher cigarette consumption, being a woman, and not having abdominal obesity. The AUC was 0.706. An association was found between increased cigarette consumption over the years and the presence of the C allele of the rs1414334 polymorphism in the HTR2C gene.

Bacterial CRISPR Regions: General Features and their Potential for Epidemiological Molecular Typing Studies

PubMed Central

Karimi, Zahra; Ahmadi, Ali; Najafi, Ali; Ranjbar, Reza

2018-01-01

Introduction: CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) loci as novel and applicable regions in prokaryotic genomes have gained great attraction in the post genomics era. Methods: These unique regions are diverse in number and sequence composition in different pathogenic bacteria and thereby can be a suitable candidate for molecular epidemiology and genotyping studies. Results:Furthermore, the arrayed structure of CRISPR loci (several unique repeats spaced with the variable sequence) and associated cas genes act as an active prokaryotic immune system against viral replication and conjugative elements. This property can be used as a tool for RNA editing in bioengineering studies. Conclusion: The aim of this review was to survey some details about the history, nature, and potential applications of CRISPR arrays in both genetic engineering and bacterial genotyping studies. PMID:29755603

Internal Performance Evaluation of a Two Position Divergent Shroud Ejector

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mihaloew, James R.; Stofan, Andrew J.

1960-01-01

A two-position divergent shroud ejector was investigated in an unheated quiescent-air facility over a range of operational variables applicable to a Mach 2.5 aircraft. The performance data are shown in terms of hypothetical engine operating conditions to illustrate variations of performance with Mach number. The overall thrust performance was reasonably good, with ejector thrust ratios ranging from 0.97 to 0.98 for all conditions except that corresponding to acceleration with afterburning through the transonic flight Mach number region from 0.9 to 1.1, where the ejector thrust ratio decreased to as low as 0.945 for an ejector corrected weight-flow ratio of 0.105.

Creating order from chaos: part II: tactical planning for mass casualty and disaster response at definitive care facilities.

PubMed

Baker, Michael S

2007-03-01

Current events highlight the need for disaster preparedness. We have seen tsunamis, hurricanes, terrorism, and combat in the news every night. There are many variables in a disaster, such as damage to facilities, loss of critical staff members, and overwhelming numbers of casualties. Each medical treatment facility should have a plan for everything from caring for staff members to getting the laundry done and providing enhanced security or mortuary services. Communication and agreements with local, regional, and federal agencies are vital. Then we must train and drill to shape the tools to impose order on chaos and to provide the most care to the greatest number.

High-resolution grids of hourly meteorological variables for Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krähenmann, S.; Walter, A.; Brienen, S.; Imbery, F.; Matzarakis, A.

2018-02-01

We present a 1-km2 gridded German dataset of hourly surface climate variables covering the period 1995 to 2012. The dataset comprises 12 variables including temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, global and direct shortwave radiation, down- and up-welling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, relative humidity and vapour pressure. This dataset was constructed statistically from station data, satellite observations and model data. It is outstanding in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and in the number of climate variables. For each variable, we employed the most suitable gridding method and combined the best of several information sources, including station records, satellite-derived data and data from a regional climate model. A module to estimate urban heat island intensity was integrated for air and dew point temperature. Owing to the low density of available synop stations, the gridded dataset does not capture all variations that may occur at a resolution of 1 km2. This applies to areas of complex terrain (all the variables), and in particular to wind speed and the radiation parameters. To achieve maximum precision, we used all observational information when it was available. This, however, leads to inhomogeneities in station network density and affects the long-term consistency of the dataset. A first climate analysis for Germany was conducted. The Rhine River Valley, for example, exhibited more than 100 summer days in 2003, whereas in 1996, the number was low everywhere in Germany. The dataset is useful for applications in various climate-related studies, hazard management and for solar or wind energy applications and it is available via doi: 10.5676/DWD_CDC/TRY_Basis_v001.

A PQL (protein quantity loci) analysis of mature pea seed proteins identifies loci determining seed protein composition.

PubMed

Bourgeois, Michael; Jacquin, Françoise; Cassecuelle, Florence; Savois, Vincent; Belghazi, Maya; Aubert, Grégoire; Quillien, Laurence; Huart, Myriam; Marget, Pascal; Burstin, Judith

2011-05-01

Legume seeds are a major source of dietary proteins for humans and animals. Deciphering the genetic control of their accumulation is thus of primary significance towards their improvement. At first, we analysed the genetic variability of the pea seed proteome of three genotypes over 3 years of cultivation. This revealed that seed protein composition variability was under predominant genetic control, with as much as 60% of the spots varying quantitatively among the three genotypes. Then, by combining proteomic and quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping approaches, we uncovered the genetic architecture of seed proteome variability. Protein quantity loci (PQL) were searched for 525 spots detected on 2-D gels obtained for 157 recombinant inbred lines. Most protein quantity loci mapped in clusters, suggesting that the accumulation of the major storage protein families was under the control of a limited number of loci. While convicilin accumulation was mainly under the control of cis-regulatory regions, vicilins and legumins were controlled by both cis- and trans-regulatory regions. Some loci controlled both seed protein composition and protein content and a locus on LGIIa appears to be a major regulator of protein composition and of protein in vitro digestibility. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Detecting seasonal flood changes in the Upper Danube River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Jeneiová, Katarína; Parajka, Juraj; Hall, Julia; Marková, Romana

2017-04-01

Due to a number of large-scale floods observed worldwide in recent years, the analysis of changes in long-term hydrological time series is becoming increasingly important. This study focuses on the Upper Danube region, which was struck by many flood events in the past decade. The flood seasonality of the study region, defined as the area of Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Austria and Slovakia, is examined to interpret the dominant flood processes. A spatial assessment of the seasonality indices of the annual maximum discharges and the seasonal discharges (derived from daily average discharges) was conducted for 117 gauging stations. Hot spots for potential changes in the mean dates of occurrence of the discharges were identified, and the results were linked with derived spatial characteristics for the catchments. The first results of the study of the seasonal discharges revealed that the variability of occurrence of summer floods is higher than winter floods in lowlands of the upper Danube catchment. In high Alpine catchments the winter floods variability of occurrence is the same or higher than for the summer floods. The summer season floods tend to appear for all catchment sizes in the same time period. With increased magnitude of floods in the summer season, the variability of occurrence of the floods is higher.

Analyzing and leveraging self-similarity for variable resolution atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

2015-04-01

Variable resolution modeling techniques are rapidly becoming a popular strategy for achieving high resolution in a global atmospheric models without the computational cost of global high resolution. However, recent studies have demonstrated a variety of resolution-dependent, and seemingly artificial, features. We argue that the scaling properties of the atmosphere are key to understanding how the statistics of an atmospheric model should change with resolution. We provide two such examples. In the first example we show that the scaling properties of the cloud number distribution define how the ratio of resolved to unresolved clouds should increase with resolution. We show that the loss of resolved clouds, in the high resolution region of variable resolution simulations, with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4) is an artifact of the model's treatment of condensed water (this artifact is significantly reduced in CAM5). In the second example we show that the scaling properties of the horizontal velocity field, combined with the incompressibility assumption, necessarily result in an intensification of vertical mass flux as resolution increases. We show that such an increase is present in a wide variety of models, including CAM and the regional climate models of the ENSEMBLES intercomparision. We present theoretical arguments linking this increase to the intensification of precipitation with increasing resolution.

Skill transfer, affordances and dexterity in different climbing environments.

PubMed

Seifert, L; Wattebled, L; L'hermette, M; Bideault, G; Herault, R; Davids, K

2013-12-01

This study explored how skills in one region of a perceptual-motor landscape of performance, created in part by previous experience in rock climbing, can shape those that emerge in another region (ice climbing). Ten novices in rock climbing and five intermediate rock climbers were observed climbing an icefall. Locations of right and left ice tools and crampons were videotaped from a frontal camera. Inter-individual variability of upper and lower limb couplings and types of action regarding icefall properties were assessed by cluster hierarchical analysis, distinguishing three clusters. Pelvis vertical displacement, duration and number of pelvis pauses were also analyzed. Experienced rock climbers were grouped in the same cluster and showed the highest range and variability of limb angular locations and coordination patterns, the highest vertical displacement and the shortest pelvis plateaux durations. Non-fluent climbers (clusters 2 and 3) showed low range and variability of limb angular locations and coordination patterns. In particular, climbers of cluster 3 exhibited the lowest vertical displacement, the longest plateaux durations and the greatest ratio between tool swinging and definitive anchorage. Our results exemplified the positive influence of skills in rock climbing on ice climbing performance, facilitated by the detection of affordances from environmental properties. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motion of packings of frictional grains.

PubMed

Halsey, Thomas C

2009-07-01

Friction plays a key role in controlling the rheology of dense granular flows. Counting the number of constraints vs the number of variables indicates that critical coordination numbers Zc=3 (in D=2) and Zc=4 (in D=3) are special, in that states in which all contacts roll without frictional sliding are naively possible at and below these average coordination numbers. We construct an explicit example of such a state in D=2 based on a honeycomb lattice. This state has surprisingly large values for the typical angular velocities of the particles. Solving for the forces in such a state, we conclude that organized shear can exist in this state only on scales l

Variability in large-scale wind power generation: Variability in large-scale wind power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

2015-10-25

The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net load events. The comparison shows regions with low variability (Sweden, Spain and Germany), medium variability (Portugal, Ireland, Finland and Denmark) and regions with higher variability (Quebec, Bonneville Power Administration and Electric Reliability Council of Texas in North America; Gansu, Jilin and Liaoning in China; and Norway and offshore wind power in Denmark). For regions with low variability, the maximum 1more » h wind ramps are below 10% of nominal capacity, and for regions with high variability, they may be close to 30%. Wind power variability is mainly explained by the extent of geographical spread, but also higher capacity factor causes higher variability. It was also shown how wind power ramps are autocorrelated and dependent on the operating output level. When wind power was concentrated in smaller area, there were outliers with high changes in wind output, which were not present in large areas with well-dispersed wind power.« less

A 507-year rainfall and runoff reconstruction for the Monsoonal North West, Australia derived from remote paleoclimate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, Danielle C.; Hancock, Gregory R.; Lowry, John B.

2017-11-01

The Monsoonal North West (MNW) region of Australia faces a number of challenges adapting to anthropogenic climate change. These have the potential to impact on a range of industries, including agricultural, pastoral, mining and tourism. However future changes to rainfall regimes remain uncertain due to the inability of Global Climate Models to adequately capture the tropical weather/climate processes that are known to be important for this region. Compounding this is the brevity of the instrumental rainfall record for the MNW, which is unlikely to represent the full range of climatic variability. One avenue for addressing this issue (the focus of this paper) is to identify sources of paleoclimate information that can be used to reconstruct a plausible pre-instrumental rainfall history for the MNW. Adopting this approach we find that, even in the absence of local sources of paleoclimate data at a suitable temporal resolution, remote paleoclimate records can resolve 25% of the annual variability observed in the instrumental rainfall record. Importantly, the 507-year rainfall reconstruction developed using the remote proxies displays longer and more intense wet and dry periods than observed during the most recent 100 years. For example, the maximum number of consecutive years of below (above) average rainfall is 90% (40%) higher in the rainfall reconstruction than during the instrumental period. Further, implications for flood and drought risk are studied via a simple GR1A rainfall runoff model, which again highlights the likelihood of extremes greater than that observed in the limited instrumental record, consistent with previous paleoclimate studies elsewhere in Australia. Importantly, this research can assist in informing climate related risks to infrastructure, agriculture and mining, and the method can readily be applied to other regions in the MNW and beyond.

Assessment of the ocean circulation in the Azores region as predicted by a numerical model assimilating altimeter data from Topex/Poseidon and ERS-1 satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mailly, T.; Blayo, E.; Verron, J.

1997-10-01

Two years of altimetric data from Topex/Poseidon (October 1992-September 1994) and ERS-1 (October 1992-December 1993) were assimilated into a numerical model of the North Atlantic. The results of these simulations are analysed in the Azores region to assess the performance of our model in this particular region. Maps of instantaneous dynamic topography and transports show that the model performs well in reproducing the velocities and transports of the Azores Front. Drifter data from the Semaphore experiment are also used to study the correlation between the drifter velocities and the corresponding model velocities. Some interesting oceanographic results are also obtained by examining the seasonal and interannual variability of the circulation and the influence of bathymetry on the variability of the Azores Front. Thus, on the basis of our two year experiment, it is possible to confirm the circulation patterns proposed by previous studies regarding the seasonal variations in the origin of the Azores Current. Moreover, it is shown that the Azores Current is quite narrow in the first year of assimilation (1992-1993), but becomes much wider in the second year (1993-1994). The role of the bathymetry appears important in this area since the mesoscale activity is shown to be strongly related to the presence of topographic slopes. Finally, spectral analyses of sea-level changes over time and space are used to identify two types of wave already noticed in other studies: a wave with (300 km)-1 wave number and (120 days)-1 frequency, which is characteristic of mesoscale undulation, and a wave with (600 km)-1 wave number and (250 days)-1 frequency which probably corresponds to a Rossby wave generated in the east of the basin.

Advances in Estimating Methane Emissions from Enteric Fermentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebreab, E.; Appuhamy, R.

2016-12-01

Methane from enteric fermentation of livestock is the largest contributor to the agricultural GHG emissions. The quantification of methane emissions from livestock on a global scale relies on prediction models because measurements require specialized equipment and may be expensive. Most countries use a fixed number (kg methane/year) or calculate as a proportion of energy intake to estimate enteric methane emissions in national inventories. However, diet composition significantly regulates enteric methane production in addition to total feed intake and thus the main target in formulating mitigation options. The two current methodologies are not able to assess mitigation options, therefore, new estimation methods are required that can take feed composition into account. The availability of information on livestock production systems has increased substantially enabling the development of more detailed methane prediction models. Limited number of process-based models have been developed that represent biological relationships in methane production, however, these require extensive inputs and specialized software that may not be easily available. Empirical models may provide a better alternative in practical situations due to less input requirements. Several models have been developed in the last 10 years but none of them work equally well across all regions of the world. The more successful models particularly in North America require three major inputs: feed (or energy) intake, fiber and fat concentration of the diet. Given the significant variability of emissions within regions, models that are able to capture regional variability of feed intake and diet composition perform the best in model evaluation with independent data. The utilization of such models may reduce uncertainties associated with prediction of methane emissions and allow a better examination and representation of policies regulating emissions from cattle.

Highly sensitive and unbiased approach for elucidating antibody repertoires

PubMed Central

Lin, Sherry G.; Ba, Zhaoqing; Du, Zhou; Zhang, Yu; Hu, Jiazhi; Alt, Frederick W.

2016-01-01

Developing B lymphocytes undergo V(D)J recombination to assemble germ-line V, D, and J gene segments into exons that encode the antigen-binding variable region of Ig heavy (H) and light (L) chains. IgH and IgL chains associate to form the B-cell receptor (BCR), which, upon antigen binding, activates B cells to secrete BCR as an antibody. Each of the huge number of clonally independent B cells expresses a unique set of IgH and IgL variable regions. The ability of V(D)J recombination to generate vast primary B-cell repertoires results from a combinatorial assortment of large numbers of different V, D, and J segments, coupled with diversification of the junctions between them to generate the complementary determining region 3 (CDR3) for antigen contact. Approaches to evaluate in depth the content of primary antibody repertoires and, ultimately, to study how they are further molded by secondary mutation and affinity maturation processes are of great importance to the B-cell development, vaccine, and antibody fields. We now describe an unbiased, sensitive, and readily accessible assay, referred to as high-throughput genome-wide translocation sequencing-adapted repertoire sequencing (HTGTS-Rep-seq), to quantify antibody repertoires. HTGTS-Rep-seq quantitatively identifies the vast majority of IgH and IgL V(D)J exons, including their unique CDR3 sequences, from progenitor and mature mouse B lineage cells via the use of specific J primers. HTGTS-Rep-seq also accurately quantifies DJH intermediates and V(D)J exons in either productive or nonproductive configurations. HTGTS-Rep-seq should be useful for studies of human samples, including clonal B-cell expansions, and also for following antibody affinity maturation processes. PMID:27354528

Spectrum of Phenylalanine Hydroxylase Gene Mutations in Hamadan and Lorestan Provinces of Iran and Their Associations with Variable Number of Tandem Repeat Alleles.

PubMed

Alibakhshi, Reza; Moradi, Keivan; Biglari, Mostafa; Shafieenia, Samaneh

2018-05-01

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is one of the most common known inherited metabolic diseases. The present study aimed to investigate the status of molecular defects in phenylalanine hydroxylase ( PAH ) gene in western Iranian PKU patients (predominantly from Kermanshah, Hamadan, and Lorestan provinces) during 2014-2016. Additionally, the results were compared with similar studies in Iran. Nucleotide sequence analysis of all 13 exons and their flanking intronic regions of the PAH gene was performed in 18 western Iranian PKU patients. Moreover, a variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) located in the PAH gene was studied. The results revealed a mutational spectrum encompassing 11 distinct mutations distributed along the PAH gene sequence on 34 of the 36 mutant alleles (diagnostic efficiency of 94.4%). Also, four PAH VNTR alleles (with repeats of 3, 7, 8 and 9) were detected. The three most frequent mutations were IVS9+5G>A, IVS7-5T>C, and p.P281L with the frequency of 27.8%, 11%, and 11%, respectively. The results showed that there is not only a consanguineous relation, but also a difference in PAH characters of mutations between Kermanshah and the other two parts of western Iran (Hamadan and Lorestan). Also, it seems that the spectrum of mutations in western Iran is relatively distinct from other parts of the country, suggesting that this region might be a special PAH gene distribution region. Moreover, our findings can be useful in the identification of genotype to phenotype relationship in patients, and provide future abilities for confirmatory diagnostic testing, prognosis, and predict the severity of PKU patients.

Embedded function methods for supersonic turbulent boundary layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, J.; Kazakia, J. Y.; Walker, J. D. A.

1990-01-01

The development of embedded functions to represent the mean velocity and total enthalpy distributions in the wall layer of a supersonic turbulent boundary layer is considered. The asymptotic scaling laws (in the limit of large Reynolds number) for high speed compressible flows are obtained to facilitate eventual implementation of the embedded functions in a general prediction method. A self-consistent asymptotic structure is derived, as well as a compressible law of the wall in which the velocity and total enthalpy are logarithmic within the overlap zone, but in the Howarth-Dorodnitsyn variable. Simple outer region turbulence models are proposed (some of which are modifications of existing incompressible models) to reflect the effects of compressibility. As a test of the methodology and the new turbulence models, a set of self-similar outer region profiles is obtained for constant pressure flow; these are then coupled with embedded functions in the wall layer. The composite profiles thus obtained are compared directly with experimental data and good agreement is obtained for flows with Mach numbers up to 10.

The genus Artemisia L. in the northern region of Saudi Arabia: essential oil variability and antibacterial activities.

PubMed

Guetat, Arbi; Al-Ghamdi, Faraj A; Osman, Ahmed K

2017-03-01

Four species of the genus Artemisia L. (Artemisia monosperma, Artemisia scoparia, Artemisia judaica and Artemisia sieberi) growing in the northern region of Saudi Arabia were investigated with respect to their volatile oil contents. The yield of oil varied between 0.30 and 0.41%, % (w/w). A. monosperma showed the highest number of compounds with 30 components representing 93.78% of oil composition. However, A. judaica showed the lowest number of compounds with only 16 components representing 87.47% of essential oil. A. scoparia and A. sieberi are both composed of 17 components, representing 97.14 and 94.2% of total oil composition. A. sieberi and A. judaica were dominated by spathulenol (30.42 and 28.41%, respectively). For A. monosperma, butanoic acid (17.87%) was a major component. However, A. scoparia was a chemotype of acenaphthene. (83.23%). Essential oil of studied species showed high antibacterial activities against common human pathogens.

Total Electron Content forecast model over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouya, Zahra; Terkildsen, Michael; Francis, Matthew

Ionospheric perturbations can cause serious propagation errors in modern radio systems such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Forecasting ionospheric parameters is helpful to estimate potential degradation of the performance of these systems. Our purpose is to establish an Australian Regional Total Electron Content (TEC) forecast model at IPS. In this work we present an approach based on the combined use of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict future TEC values. PCA is used to reduce the dimensionality of the original TEC data by mapping it into its eigen-space. In this process the top- 5 eigenvectors are chosen to reflect the directions of the maximum variability. An ANN approach was then used for the multicomponent prediction. We outline the design of the ANN model with its parameters. A number of activation functions along with different spectral ranges and different numbers of Principal Components (PCs) were tested to find the PCA-ANN models reaching the best results. Keywords: GNSS, Space Weather, Regional, Forecast, PCA, ANN.

Haplotype-based approach to known MS-associated regions increases the amount of explained risk

PubMed Central

Khankhanian, Pouya; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Lizee, Antoine; Goodin, Douglas S

2015-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS), using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), have yielded 110 non-human leucocyte antigen genomic regions that are associated with multiple sclerosis (MS). Despite this large number of associations, however, only 28% of MS-heritability can currently be explained. Here we compare the use of multi-SNP-haplotypes to the use of single-SNPs as alternative methods to describe MS genetic risk. SNP-haplotypes (of various lengths from 1 up to 15 contiguous SNPs) were constructed at each of the 110 previously identified, MS-associated, genomic regions. Even after correcting for the larger number of statistical comparisons made when using the haplotype-method, in 32 of the regions, the SNP-haplotype based model was markedly more significant than the single-SNP based model. By contrast, in no region was the single-SNP based model similarly more significant than the SNP-haplotype based model. Moreover, when we included the 932 MS-associated SNP-haplotypes (that we identified from 102 regions) as independent variables into a logistic linear model, the amount of MS-heritability, as assessed by Nagelkerke's R-squared, was 38%, which was considerably better than 29%, which was obtained by using only single-SNPs. This study demonstrates that SNP-haplotypes can be used to fine-map the genetic associations within regions of interest previously identified by single-SNP GWAS. Moreover, the amount of the MS genetic risk explained by the SNP-haplotype associations in the 110 MS-associated genomic regions was considerably greater when using SNP-haplotypes than when using single-SNPs. Also, the use of SNP-haplotypes can lead to the discovery of new regions of interest, which have not been identified by a single-SNP GWAS. PMID:26185143

A regional approach to plant DNA barcoding provides high species resolution of sedges (Carex and Kobresia, Cyperaceae) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

PubMed

Clerc-Blain, Jessica L E; Starr, Julian R; Bull, Roger D; Saarela, Jeffery M

2010-01-01

Previous research on barcoding sedges (Carex) suggested that basic searches within a global barcoding database would probably not resolve more than 60% of the world's some 2000 species. In this study, we take an alternative approach and explore the performance of plant DNA barcoding in the Carex lineage from an explicitly regional perspective. We characterize the utility of a subset of the proposed protein-coding and noncoding plastid barcoding regions (matK, rpoB, rpoC1, rbcL, atpF-atpH, psbK-psbI) for distinguishing species of Carex and Kobresia in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, a clearly defined eco-geographical region representing 1% of the Earth's landmass. Our results show that matK resolves the greatest number of species of any single-locus (95%), and when combined in a two-locus barcode, it provides 100% species resolution in all but one combination (matK + atpFH) during unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic mean averages (UPGMA) analyses. Noncoding regions were equally or more variable than matK, but as single markers they resolve substantially fewer taxa than matK alone. When difficulties with sequencing and alignment due to microstructural variation in noncoding regions are also considered, our results support other studies in suggesting that protein-coding regions are more practical as barcoding markers. Plastid DNA barcodes are an effective identification tool for species of Carex and Kobresia in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, a region where the number of co-existing closely related species is limited. We suggest that if a regional approach to plant DNA barcoding was applied on a global scale, it could provide a solution to the generally poor species resolution seen in previous barcoding studies. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Reduction of false-positives in a CAD scheme for automated detection of architectural distortion in digital mammography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, Helder C. R.; Mencattini, Arianna; Casti, Paola; Martinelli, Eugenio; di Natale, Corrado; Catani, Juliana H.; de Barros, Nestor; Melo, Carlos F. E.; Gonzaga, Adilson; Vieira, Marcelo A. C.

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a method to reduce the number of false-positives (FP) in a computer-aided detection (CAD) scheme for automated detection of architectural distortion (AD) in digital mammography. AD is a subtle contraction of breast parenchyma that may represent an early sign of breast cancer. Due to its subtlety and variability, AD is more difficult to detect compared to microcalcifications and masses, and is commonly found in retrospective evaluations of false-negative mammograms. Several computer-based systems have been proposed for automated detection of AD in breast images. The usual approach is automatically detect possible sites of AD in a mammographic image (segmentation step) and then use a classifier to eliminate the false-positives and identify the suspicious regions (classification step). This paper focus on the optimization of the segmentation step to reduce the number of FPs that is used as input to the classifier. The proposal is to use statistical measurements to score the segmented regions and then apply a threshold to select a small quantity of regions that should be submitted to the classification step, improving the detection performance of a CAD scheme. We evaluated 12 image features to score and select suspicious regions of 74 clinical Full-Field Digital Mammography (FFDM). All images in this dataset contained at least one region with AD previously marked by an expert radiologist. The results showed that the proposed method can reduce the false positives of the segmentation step of the CAD scheme from 43.4 false positives (FP) per image to 34.5 FP per image, without increasing the number of false negatives.

Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

PubMed

Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

2016-01-01

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year. PMID:26812351

Microarray image analysis: background estimation using quantile and morphological filters.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Anders; Bengtsson, Henrik

2006-02-28

In a microarray experiment the difference in expression between genes on the same slide is up to 103 fold or more. At low expression, even a small error in the estimate will have great influence on the final test and reference ratios. In addition to the true spot intensity the scanned signal consists of different kinds of noise referred to as background. In order to assess the true spot intensity background must be subtracted. The standard approach to estimate background intensities is to assume they are equal to the intensity levels between spots. In the literature, morphological opening is suggested to be one of the best methods for estimating background this way. This paper examines fundamental properties of rank and quantile filters, which include morphological filters at the extremes, with focus on their ability to estimate between-spot intensity levels. The bias and variance of these filter estimates are driven by the number of background pixels used and their distributions. A new rank-filter algorithm is implemented and compared to methods available in Spot by CSIRO and GenePix Pro by Axon Instruments. Spot's morphological opening has a mean bias between -47 and -248 compared to a bias between 2 and -2 for the rank filter and the variability of the morphological opening estimate is 3 times higher than for the rank filter. The mean bias of Spot's second method, morph.close.open, is between -5 and -16 and the variability is approximately the same as for morphological opening. The variability of GenePix Pro's region-based estimate is more than ten times higher than the variability of the rank-filter estimate and with slightly more bias. The large variability is because the size of the background window changes with spot size. To overcome this, a non-adaptive region-based method is implemented. Its bias and variability are comparable to that of the rank filter. The performance of more advanced rank filters is equal to the best region-based methods. However, in order to get unbiased estimates these filters have to be implemented with great care. The performance of morphological opening is in general poor with a substantial spatial-dependent bias.

Variability in the prescription of non-biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs for the treatment of spondyloarthritis in Spain.

PubMed

Silva-Fernández, Lucía; Pérez-Vicente, Sabina; Martín-Martínez, María Auxiliadora; López-González, Ruth

2015-06-01

To describe the variability in the prescription of non-biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs) for the treatment of spondyloarthritis (SpA) in Spain and to explore which factors relating to the disease, patient, physician, and/or center contribute to these variations. A retrospective medical record review was performed using a probabilistic sample of 1168 patients with SpA from 45 centers distributed in 15/19 regions in Spain. The sociodemographic and clinical features and the use of drugs were recorded following a standardized protocol. Logistic regression, with nbDMARDs prescriptions as the dependent variable, was used for bivariable analysis. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to study variability. The probability of receiving an nbDMARD was higher in female patients [OR = 1.548; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.208-1.984], in those with elevated C-reactive protein (OR = 1.039; 95% CI: 1.012-1.066) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (OR = 1.012; 95% CI: 1.003-1.021), in those with a higher number of affected peripheral joints (OR = 12.921; 95% CI: 2.911-57.347), and in patients with extra-articular manifestations like dactylitis (OR = 2.997; 95% CI: 1.868-4.809), psoriasis (OR = 2.601; 95% CI: 1.870-3.617), and enthesitis (OR = 1.717; 95% CI: 1.224-2.410). There was a marked variability in the prescription of nbDMARDs for SpA patients, depending on the center (14.3%; variance 0.549; standard error 0.161; median odds ratio 2.366; p < 0.001). After adjusting for patient and center variables, this variability fell to 3.8%. A number of factors affecting variability in clinical practice, and which are independent of disease characteristics, are associated with the probability of SpA patients receiving nbDMARDs in Spain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of rain gauge density over the accuracy of rainfall: a case study over Bangalore, India.

PubMed

Mishra, Anoop Kumar

2013-12-01

Rainfall is an extremely variable parameter in both space and time. Rain gauge density is very crucial in order to quantify the rainfall amount over a region. The level of rainfall accuracy is highly dependent on density and distribution of rain gauge stations over a region. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) have installed a number of Automatic Weather Station (AWS) rain gauges over Indian region to study rainfall. In this paper, the effect of rain gauge density over daily accumulated rainfall is analyzed using ISRO AWS gauge observations. A region of 50 km × 50 km box over southern part of Indian region (Bangalore) with good density of rain gauges is identified for this purpose. Rain gauge numbers are varied from 1-8 in 50 km box to study the variation in the daily accumulated rainfall. Rainfall rates from the neighbouring stations are also compared in this study. Change in the rainfall as a function of gauge spacing is studied. Use of gauge calibrated satellite observations to fill the gauge station value is also studied. It is found that correlation coefficients (CC) decrease from 82% to 21% as gauge spacing increases from 5 km to 40 km while root mean square error (RMSE) increases from 8.29 mm to 51.27 mm with increase in gauge spacing from 5 km to 40 km. Considering 8 rain gauges as a standard representative of rainfall over the region, absolute error increases from 15% to 64% as gauge numbers are decreased from 7 to 1. Small errors are reported while considering 4 to 7 rain gauges to represent 50 km area. However, reduction to 3 or less rain gauges resulted in significant error. It is also observed that use of gauge calibrated satellite observations significantly improved the rainfall estimation over the region with very few rain gauge observations.

Report of the solar physics panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Withbroe, George L.; Fisher, Richard R.; Antiochos, Spiro; Brueckner, Guenter; Hoeksema, J. Todd; Hudson, Hugh; Moore, Ronald; Radick, Richard R.; Rottman, Gary; Scherrer, Philip

1991-01-01

Recent accomplishments in solar physics can be grouped by the three regions of the Sun: the solar interior, the surface, and the exterior. The future scientific problems and areas of interest involve: generation of magnetic activity cycle, energy storage and release, solar activity, solar wind and solar interaction. Finally, the report discusses a number of future space mission concepts including: High Energy Solar Physics Mission, Global Solar Mission, Space Exploration Initiative, Solar Probe Mission, Solar Variability Explorer, Janus, as well as solar physics on Space Station Freedom.

Hybridization drives evolution of apomicts in Rubus subgenus Rubus: evidence from microsatellite markers.

PubMed

Šarhanová, Petra; Sharbel, Timothy F; Sochor, Michal; Vašut, Radim J; Dancák, Martin; Trávnícek, Bohumil

2017-08-01

Rubus subgenus Rubus is a group of mostly apomictic and polyploid species with a complicated taxonomy and history of ongoing hybridization. The only polyploid series with prevailing sexuality is the series Glandulosi , although the apomictic series Discolores and Radula also retain a high degree of sexuality, which is influenced by environmental conditions and/or pollen donors. The aim of this study is to detect sources of genetic variability, determine the origin of apomictic taxa and validate microsatellite markers by cloning and sequencing. A total of 206 individuals from two central European regions were genotyped for 11 nuclear microsatellite loci and the chloroplast trn L- trn F region. Microsatellite alleles were further sequenced in order to determine the exact repeat number and to detect size homoplasy due to insertions/deletions in flanking regions. The results confirm that apomictic microspecies of ser. Radula are derived from crosses between sexual series Glandulosi and apomictic series Discolores , whereby the apomict acts as pollen donor. Each apomictic microspecies is derived from a single distinct genotype differing from the parental taxa, suggesting stabilized clonal reproduction. Intraspecific variation within apomicts is considerably low compared with sexual series Glandulosi , and reflects somatic mutation accumulation. While facultative apomicts produce clonal offspring, sexual species are the conduits of origin for new genetically different apomictic lineages. One of the main driving forces of evolution and speciation in the highly apomictic subgenus Rubus in central Europe is sexuality in the series Glandulosi . Palaeovegetation data suggest that initial hybridizations took place over different time periods in the two studied regions, and that the successful origin and spread of apomictic microspecies of the series Radula took place over several millennia. Additionally, the cloning and sequencing show that standard evaluations of microsatellite repeat numbers underestimate genetic variability considering homoplasy in allele size. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

An Adaptive Mesh Algorithm: Mesh Structure and Generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scannapieco, Anthony J.

2016-06-21

The purpose of Adaptive Mesh Refinement is to minimize spatial errors over the computational space not to minimize the number of computational elements. The additional result of the technique is that it may reduce the number of computational elements needed to retain a given level of spatial accuracy. Adaptive mesh refinement is a computational technique used to dynamically select, over a region of space, a set of computational elements designed to minimize spatial error in the computational model of a physical process. The fundamental idea is to increase the mesh resolution in regions where the physical variables are represented bymore » a broad spectrum of modes in k-space, hence increasing the effective global spectral coverage of those physical variables. In addition, the selection of the spatially distributed elements is done dynamically by cyclically adjusting the mesh to follow the spectral evolution of the system. Over the years three types of AMR schemes have evolved; block, patch and locally refined AMR. In block and patch AMR logical blocks of various grid sizes are overlaid to span the physical space of interest, whereas in locally refined AMR no logical blocks are employed but locally nested mesh levels are used to span the physical space. The distinction between block and patch AMR is that in block AMR the original blocks refine and coarsen entirely in time, whereas in patch AMR the patches change location and zone size with time. The type of AMR described herein is a locally refi ned AMR. In the algorithm described, at any point in physical space only one zone exists at whatever level of mesh that is appropriate for that physical location. The dynamic creation of a locally refi ned computational mesh is made practical by a judicious selection of mesh rules. With these rules the mesh is evolved via a mesh potential designed to concentrate the nest mesh in regions where the physics is modally dense, and coarsen zones in regions where the physics is modally sparse.« less

Women's autonomy in household decision-making: a demographic study in Nepal.

PubMed

Acharya, Dev R; Bell, Jacqueline S; Simkhada, Padam; van Teijlingen, Edwin R; Regmi, Pramod R

2010-07-15

How socio-demographic factors influence women's autonomy in decision making on health care including purchasing goods and visiting family and relatives are very poorly studied in Nepal. This study aims to explore the links between women's household position and their autonomy in decision making. We used Nepal Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) 2006, which provided data on ever married women aged 15-49 years (n = 8257). The data consists of women's four types of household decision making; own health care, making major household purchases, making purchase for daily household needs and visits to her family or relatives. A number of socio-demographic variables were used in multivariable logistic regression to examine the relationship of these variables to all four types of decision making. Women's autonomy in decision making is positively associated with their age, employment and number of living children. Women from rural area and Terai region have less autonomy in decision making in all four types of outcome measure. There is a mixed variation in women's autonomy in the development region across all outcome measures. Western women are more likely to make decision in own health care (1.2-1.6), while they are less likely to purchase daily household needs (0.6-0.9). Women's increased education is positively associated with autonomy in own health care decision making (p < 0.01), however their more schooling (SLC and above) shows non-significance with other outcome measures. Interestingly, rich women are less likely to have autonomy to make decision in own healthcare. Women from rural area and Terai region needs specific empowerment programme to enable them to be more autonomous in the household decision making. Women's autonomy by education, wealth quintile and development region needs a further social science investigation to observe the variations within each stratum. A more comprehensive strategy can enable women to access community resources, to challenge traditional norms and to access economic resources. This will lead the women to be more autonomous in decision making in the due course.

Yield of bedrock wells in the Nashoba terrane, central and eastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeSimone, Leslie A.; Barbaro, Jeffrey R.

2012-01-01

The yield of bedrock wells in the fractured-bedrock aquifers of the Nashoba terrane and surrounding area, central and eastern Massachusetts, was investigated with analyses of existing data. Reported well yield was compiled for 7,287 wells from Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection and U.S. Geological Survey databases. Yield of these wells ranged from 0.04 to 625 gallons per minute. In a comparison with data from 103 supply wells, yield and specific capacity from aquifer tests were well correlated, indicating that reported well yield was a reasonable measure of aquifer characteristics in the study area. Statistically significant relations were determined between well yield and a number of cultural and hydrogeologic factors. Cultural variables included intended water use, well depth, year of construction, and method of yield measurement. Bedrock geology, topography, surficial geology, and proximity to surface waters were statistically significant hydrogeologic factors. Yield of wells was higher in areas of granites, mafic intrusive rocks, and amphibolites than in areas of schists and gneisses or pelitic rocks; higher in valleys and low-slope areas than on hills, ridges, or high slopes; higher in areas overlain by stratified glacial deposits than in areas overlain by till; and higher in close proximity to streams, ponds, and wetlands than at greater distances from these surface-water features. Proximity to mapped faults and to lineaments from aerial photographs also were related to well yield by some measures in three quadrangles in the study area. Although the statistical significance of these relations was high, their predictive power was low, and these relations explained little of the variability in the well-yield data. Similar results were determined from a multivariate regression analysis. Multivariate regression models for the Nashoba terrane and for a three-quadrangle subarea included, as significant variables, many of the cultural and hydrogeologic factors that were individually related to well yield, in ways that are consistent with conceptual understanding of their effects, but the models explained only 21 percent (regional model for the entire terrane) and 30 percent (quadrangle model) of the overall variance in yield. Moreover, most of the explained variance was due to well characteristics rather than hydrogeologic factors. Hydrogeologic factors such as topography and geology are likely important. However, the overall high variability in the well-yield data, which results from the high variability in aquifer hydraulic properties as well as from limitations of the dataset, would make it difficult to use hydrogeologic factors to predict well yield in the study area. Geostatistical analysis (variograms), on the other hand, indicated that, although highly variable, the well-yield data are spatially correlated. The spatial continuity appears greater in the northeast-southwest direction and less in the southeast-northwest direction, directions that are parallel and perpendicular, respectively, to the regional geologic structural trends. Geostatistical analysis (kriging), used to estimate yield values throughout the study area, identified regional-scale areas of higher and lower yield that may be related to regional structural features—in particular, to a northeast-southwest trending regional fault zone within the Nashoba terrane. It also would be difficult to use kriging to predict yield at specific locations, however, because of the spatial variability in yield, particularly at small scales. The regional-scale analyses in this study, both with hydrogeologic variables and geostatistics, provide a context for understanding the variability in well yield, rather a basis for precise predictions, and site-specific information would be needed to understand local conditions.

Comparison of Kinematics and Muscle Activation in Free-Weight Back Squat With and Without Elastic Bands.

PubMed

Saeterbakken, Atle H; Andersen, Vidar; van den Tillaar, Roland

2016-04-01

The purpose of the study was to compare kinematic muscle activation when performing 6 repetition maximum (6RM) squats using constant (free weights) or variable resistance (free weights + elastic bands). Twenty recreationally trained women were recruited with 4.6 ± 2.1 years of resistance training experience and a relative strength (6RM/body mass) of 1.1. After a familiarization session identifying the 6RM loads, the participants performed 6RM squats using constant and variable resistance in a randomized order. The total resistance in the variable resistance group was similar to the constant resistance in the presticking region (98%), but greater in the sticking region (105%) and the poststicking region (113%). In addition, the presticking barbell velocity was 21.0% greater using variable than constant resistance, but 22.8% lower in the poststicking region. No significant differences in muscle electromyographic activity, time occurrence, and vertical displacement between the squat modalities were observed, except for higher barbell displacement poststicking using variable resistance. It was concluded that, due to differences in total resistance in the different regions performing variable compared with constant resistance, greater barbell velocity was observed in the presticking region and lower resistance was observed in the poststicking region. However, the extra resistance in the sticking and poststicking regions during the variable resistance modality did not cause increased muscle activity. When performing squats with heavy resistance, the authors recommend using variable resistance, but we suggest increasing the percentage resistance from the elastic bands or using chains.

Wave resource variability: Impacts on wave power supply over regional to international scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Fairley, Iain; Robertson, Bryson; Abusara, Mohammad; Masters, Ian

2017-04-01

The intermittent, irregular and variable nature of the wave energy resource has implications for the supply of wave-generated electricity into the grid. Intermittency of renewable power may lead to frequency and voltage fluctuations in the transmission and distribution networks. A matching supply of electricity must be planned to meet the predicted demand, leading to a need for gas-fired and back-up generating plants to supplement intermittent supplies, and potentially limiting the integration of intermittent power into the grid. Issues relating to resource intermittency and their mitigation through the development of spatially separated sites have been widely researched in the wind industry, but have received little attention to date in the less mature wave industry. This study analyses the wave resource over three different spatial scales to investigate the potential impacts of the temporal and spatial resource variability on the grid supply. The primary focus is the Southwest UK, a region already home to multiple existing and proposed wave energy test sites. Concurrent wave buoy data from six locations, supported by SWAN wave model hindcast data, are analysed to assess the correlation of the resource across the region and the variation in wave power with direction. Power matrices for theoretical nearshore and offshore devices are used to calculate the maximum step change in generated power across the region as the number of deployment sites is increased. The step change analysis is also applied across national and international spatial scales using output from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim hindcast model. It is found that the deployment of multiple wave energy sites, whether on a regional, national or international scale, results in both a reduction in step changes in power and reduced times of zero generation, leading to an overall smoothing of the wave-generated electrical power. This has implications for the planning and siting of future wave energy arrays when the industry reaches the point of large-scale deployment.

Duck populations as indicators of landscape condition in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Jane E.; Buhl, Thomas K.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Norling, Wayne; Sklebar, H. Thomas

2001-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains is an important region for waterfowl production because of the abundance of shallow wetlands. The ecological significance of the region and impacts from intensive agriculture prompted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to select it as one of the first areas for developing and evaluating ecological indicators of wetland condition. We examined hypothesized relations between indicators of landscape and wetland conditions and waterfowl abundance on 45 40 km2 study sites in North Dakota for 1995-96. Landscape condition was defined a priori as the ratio of cropland area to total upland area surrounding wetlands. Measures of waterfowl abundance included estimated numbers of breeding pairs (by species and total numbers) and , a species-specific correction factor which effectively adjusts breeding pair estimates for annual or area-related differences in pond size. Landscape indicators and waterfowl measures varied among regions. Results indicated that most areas in the Coteau region are of much higher quality for ducks than those in the Drift Plain, and areas in the Red River Valley are of the poorest quality for ducks. Regression models demonstrated the impact of agricultural development on breeding duck populations in the Prairie Pothole Region. The most consistent landscape indicators of waterfowl abundance were percent of cropland and grassland. Models were inconsistent among years and species. The potential biotic indicators of landscape and wetland condition examined here would be appropriate for temporal trend analyses, but because of inherent geographic variability would not be appropriate for single-year geographic trend analyses without more extensive evaluations to improve explanatory models

Reynolds number influences in aeronautics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bushnell, Dennis M.; Yip, Long P.; Yao, Chung-Sheng; Lin, John C.; Lawing, Pierce L.; Batina, John T.; Hardin, Jay C.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Fenbert, James W.; Domack, Christopher S.

1993-01-01

Reynolds number, a measure of the ratio of inertia to viscous forces, is a fundamental similarity parameter for fluid flows and therefore, would be expected to have a major influence in aerodynamics and aeronautics. Reynolds number influences are generally large, but monatomic, for attached laminar (continuum) flow; however, laminar flows are easily separated, inducing even stronger, non-monatomic, Reynolds number sensitivities. Probably the strongest Reynolds number influences occur in connection with transitional flow behavior. Transition can take place over a tremendous Reynolds number range, from the order of 20 x 10(exp 3) for 2-D free shear layers up to the order of 100 x 10(exp 6) for hypersonic boundary layers. This variability in transition behavior is especially important for complex configurations where various vehicle and flow field elements can undergo transition at various Reynolds numbers, causing often surprising changes in aerodynamics characteristics over wide ranges in Reynolds number. This is further compounded by the vast parameterization associated with transition, in that any parameter which influences mean viscous flow development (e.g., pressure gradient, flow curvature, wall temperature, Mach number, sweep, roughness, flow chemistry, shock interactions, etc.), and incident disturbance fields (acoustics, vorticity, particulates, temperature spottiness, even electro static discharges) can alter transition locations to first order. The usual method of dealing with the transition problem is to trip the flow in the generally lower Reynolds number wind tunnel to simulate the flight turbulent behavior. However, this is not wholly satisfactory as it results in incorrectly scaled viscous region thicknesses and cannot be utilized at all for applications such as turbine blades and helicopter rotors, nacelles, leading edge and nose regions, and High Altitude Long Endurance and hypersonic airbreathers where the transitional flow is an innately critical portion of the problem.

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

PubMed

Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S

2013-02-01

Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.

Variability of lotic macroinvertebrate assemblages and stream habitat characteristics across hierarchical landscape classifications.

PubMed

Mykrä, Heikki; Heino, Jani; Muotka, Timo

2004-09-01

Streams are naturally hierarchical systems, and their biota are affected by factors effective at regional to local scales. However, there have been only a few attempts to quantify variation in ecological attributes across multiple spatial scales. We examined the variation in several macroinvertebrate metrics and environmental variables at three hierarchical scales (ecoregions, drainage systems, streams) in boreal headwater streams. In nested analyses of variance, significant spatial variability was observed for most of the macroinvertebrate metrics and environmental variables examined. For most metrics, ecoregions explained more variation than did drainage systems. There was, however, much variation attributable to residuals, suggesting high among-stream variation in macroinvertebrate assemblage characteristics. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and multiresponse permutation procedure (MRPP) showed that assemblage composition differed significantly among both drainage systems and ecoregions. The associated R-statistics were, however, very low, indicating wide variation among sites within the defined landscape classifications. Regional delineations explained most of the variation in stream water chemistry, ecoregions being clearly more influential than drainage systems. For physical habitat characteristics, by contrast, the among-stream component was the major source of variation. Distinct differences attributable to stream size were observed for several metrics, especially total number of taxa and abundance of algae-scraping invertebrates. Although ecoregions clearly account for a considerable amount of variation in macroinvertebrate assemblage characteristics, we suggest that a three-tiered classification system (stratification through ecoregion and habitat type, followed by assemblage prediction within these ecologically meaningful units) will be needed for effective bioassessment of boreal running waters.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Heme oxygenase-1 gene promoter microsatellite polymorphism is associated with progressive atherosclerosis and incident cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Pechlaner, Raimund; Willeit, Peter; Summerer, Monika; Santer, Peter; Egger, Georg; Kronenberg, Florian; Demetz, Egon; Weiss, Günter; Tsimikas, Sotirios; Witztum, Joseph L; Willeit, Karin; Iglseder, Bernhard; Paulweber, Bernhard; Kedenko, Lyudmyla; Haun, Margot; Meisinger, Christa; Gieger, Christian; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Peters, Annette; Willeit, Johann; Kiechl, Stefan

2015-01-01

The enzyme heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) exerts cytoprotective effects in response to various cellular stressors. A variable number tandem repeat polymorphism in the HO-1 gene promoter region has previously been linked to cardiovascular disease. We examined this association prospectively in the general population. Incidence of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death was registered between 1995 and 2010 in 812 participants of the Bruneck Study aged 45 to 84 years (49.4% males). Carotid atherosclerosis progression was quantified by high-resolution ultrasound. HO-1 variable number tandem repeat length was determined by polymerase chain reaction. Subjects with ≥32 tandem repeats on both HO-1 alleles compared with the rest of the population (recessive trait) featured substantially increased cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 5.45 [2.39, 12.42]; P<0.0001), enhanced atherosclerosis progression (median difference in atherosclerosis score [interquartile range], 2.1 [0.8, 5.6] versus 0.0 [0.0, 2.2] mm; P=0.0012), and a trend toward higher levels of oxidized phospholipids on apolipoprotein B-100 (median oxidized phospholipids/apolipoprotein B level [interquartile range], 11364 [4160, 18330] versus 4844 [3174, 12284] relative light units; P=0.0554). Increased cardiovascular disease risk in those homozygous for ≥32 repeats was also detected in a pooled analysis of 7848 participants of the Bruneck, SAPHIR, and KORA prospective studies (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 3.26 [1.50, 7.33]; P=0.0043). This study found a strong association between the HO-1 variable number tandem repeat polymorphism and cardiovascular disease risk confined to subjects with a high number of repeats on both HO-1 alleles and provides evidence for accelerated atherogenesis and decreased antioxidant defense in this vascular high-risk group. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Ciguatera fish poisoning and environmental change: a case for strengthening health surveillance in the Pacific?

PubMed

Derne, Bonnie; Fearnley, Emily; Goater, Sarah; Carter, Karen; Weinstein, Philip

2010-09-01

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP), a significant public health problem in the Pacific, is intrinsically linked to the health of coral reef ecosystems. Incidence data on CFP could therefore be used, in theory, as indicators of disruption to coral reefs. Some disruptions, such as increasing sea surface temperatures, result from global environmental change--therefore suggesting that CFP is likely to become an increasing public health problem in the region. The proactive management of increasing numbers of cases will depend on an understanding of the ecology of the disease, sound health surveillance systems to report cases of CFP including appropriate case definitions, and quantifiable correlations between case numbers and environmental variables. Here, we briefly review the knowledge about these components in Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs), including summarising regional variation in symptoms of CFP cases, investigating media as an enhanced surveillance tool, and summarising regional environmental drivers of CFP cases. We conclude that CFP could be an important indicator of the health of reef ecosystems in the face of global climate change and more novel approaches such as combining environmental and health data, need to be implemented to improve surveillance of CFP.

Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

2015-12-01

The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

2012-04-01

Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

[Drug expenditure in primary care: associated variables and allocation of drug budgets according to health district].

PubMed

García-Sempere, A; Peiró, S

2001-01-01

Identify factors explaining variability in prescribing costs after reviewing ecological data related to costs and socio-demographic characteristics of the health care zones in the autonomous region of Valencia, and explore the usefulness of using the model to set prescribing budgets in basic healthcare zones. An ecological analysis of the value socio-demographic characteristics and use of healthcare services to explain prescribing costs in 1997. Development of a prediction model based on multiple linear regression in data for prescribing costs in 1997 and validation in data for 1998. Factors that correlated positively with prescribing costs were the percentage of inhabitants over the age of 80, the death rate, the percentage of inhabitants with only primary education or less, the percentage of inhabitants between the ages of 65 and 79 and the distance from the capital city. A multivariate model including the death rate, the percentage of inhabitants 80 years of age and older, the number of cars per 100 inhabitants and number of visits per inhabitant accounted for 44.5% of the variations in prescribing costs in 1997 and 32% in 1998. Socio-demographic factors and certain variables associated with health care utilization can be applied, within certain limitations, to set prescribing budgets in basic healthcare zones.

Demographic Characteristics of Applicants to, and Students of, Ontario Physiotherapy Education Programs, 2004-2014: Trends in Gender, Geographical Location, Aboriginal Identity, and Immigrant Status.

PubMed

Coghlan, Cara M; Mallinger, Hilary; McFadden, Alison; Richard, Jocelynn; Stern, Arlee; Norman, Kathleen E

2017-01-01

Purpose: The authors analyzed the demographics of potential future physiotherapists to determine whether they were representative of the Canadian population. The specific objectives were to examine selected demographic variables from all applicants to and students in Ontario English-language Master of Physical Therapy programmes in admission cycles 2004-2014, inclusive, and to analyze the results as compared with Canadian population data. Method: Anonymized applicant records ( n =14,135) were obtained for admission cycles 2004-2014, inclusive. Variables examined for applicants and students included their gender, geographical location from Canadian and international regions, Aboriginal identity, and immigrant status. A descriptive analysis of counts and proportions was conducted for all variables. Results: The majority of applicants were women (70%), from southern Ontario (73%), and Canadian born (82%). Aboriginal and rural applicants made up small proportions of the applicant pool (1% and 12%, respectively). The number of applicants from British Columbia was proportionally high relative to those from other Canadian provinces. Conclusion: Although Ontario's physiotherapy education programmes remain female dominated, the demographics of applicants and students are otherwise mostly representative of the diverse Canadian population, although very low in the number of Aboriginal peoples. Further research is needed to understand the diversity and composition of the Canadian physiotherapy workforce.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Thomas K., IV; Johnston, Christopher O.; Hosder, Serhat

2016-01-01

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

Disentangling the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on the distribution of endemic vascular plants in Sardinia.

PubMed

Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cañadas, Eva Maria; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2017-01-01

Due to the impelling urgency of plant conservation and the increasing availability of high resolution spatially interpolated (e.g. climate variables) and categorical data (e.g. land cover and vegetation type), many recent studies have examined relationships among plant species distributions and a diversified set of explanatory factors; nevertheless, global and regional patterns of endemic plant richness remain in many cases unexplained. One such pattern is the 294 endemic vascular plant taxa recorded on a 1 km resolution grid on the environmentally heterogeneous island of Sardinia. Sixteen predictors, including topographic, geological, climatic and anthropogenic factors, were used to model local (number of taxa inside each 1 km grid cell) Endemic Vascular Plant Richness (EVPR). Generalized Linear Models were used to evaluate how each factor affected the distribution of local EVPR. Significant relationships with local EVPR and topographic, geological, climatic and anthropogenic factors were found. In particular, elevation explained the larger fraction of variation in endemic richness but other environmental factors (e.g. precipitation seasonality and slope) and human-related factors (e.g. the Human Influence Index (HII) and the proportion of anthropogenic land uses) were, respectively, positively and negatively correlated with local EVPR. Regional EVPR (number of endemic taxa inside each 100 m elevation interval) was also measured to compare local and regional EVPR patterns along the elevation gradient. In contrast to local, regional EVPR tended to decrease with altitude partly due to the decreasing area covered along altitude. The contrasting results between local and regional patterns suggest that local richness increases as a result of increased interspecific aggregation along altitude, whereas regional richness may depend on the interaction between area and altitude. This suggests that the shape and magnitude of the species-area relationship might vary with elevation. This work provides-for the first time in Sardinia-a comprehensive analysis of the influence of environmental factors on the pattern of EVPR in the entire territory, from sea level to the highest peaks. Elevation, as well as other environmental and human-related variables, were confirmed to be influencing factors. In addition, variations of EVPR patterns at regional-to-local spatial scales inspire next investigations on the possible interaction between elevation and area in explaining patterns of plant species richness.

178: FORECASTING THE SHORTAGE OF NEUROSURGEONS IN IRAN USING A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL APPROACH

PubMed Central

Ezzatabadi, Mohammad Ranjbar; Zadeh, Sina Abdollah; Rafiei, Sima

2017-01-01

Background and aims Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus in an uncertain environment, long term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. The study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modelling. Methods System dynamic modelling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic and utilization variables. Along with, supply model incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as: attrition, migration and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases were analysed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics and disease prevalence during the time. Results It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization and medical capacity of the region. Conclusion Results of the study suggests that shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Role of Brazilian zoos in ex situ bird conservation: from 1981 to 2005.

PubMed

Azevedo, Cristiano S; Young, Robert J; Rodrigues, Marcos

2011-01-01

Zoos may play an important role in conservation when they maintain and breed large numbers of animals that are threatened with extinction. Bird conservation is in a privileged situation owing to the extensive biological information available about this class. Annual inventories produced by the "Sociedade de Zoológicos do Brasil" in the years 1981, 1990, 2000, and 2005 were analyzed. Variables, such as the number of zoos per geographic region; number of birds held; number of bird species in each IUCN threat category; number of exotic and native bird species; number of potentially breeding bird species; number of bird species in each order; and number of threatened bird species breeding, were analyzed. Brazilian zoos kept more than 350 bird species. The number of bird species and specimens held by the Brazilian Zoos increased from 1981 to 2000, but decreased in 2005. The same pattern was observed for the number of species in each IUCN threat category. Results showed that the potential of the Brazilian zoos in bird conservation needs to be enhanced because they maintain threatened species but do not implement systematic genetic, reproductive, or behavioral management protocols for most species. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade was found: 97% of this increase was attributed to the rise in CO2, -3% to climate trends and 15% to trends in nitrogen fertilization and deposition. When compared with statistical data, ORCHIDEE-GM captures well the observed phase of climate-driven interannual variability in grassland production well, whereas the magnitude of the interannual variability in modeled productivity is larger than the statistical data. Regional grass-fed livestock numbers can be reproduced by ORCHIDEE-GM based on its simple assumptions and parameterization about productivity being the only limiting factor to define the sustainable number of animals per unit area. Causes for regional model-data misfits are discussed, including uncertainties in farming practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer application, and mowing and grazing intensity) and in ruminant diet composition, as well as uncertainties in the statistical data and in model parameter values.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961–2010

PubMed Central

Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

2015-01-01

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961–2010. Here “potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density” denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961–2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade was found: 97% of this increase was attributed to the rise in CO2, -3% to climate trends and 15% to trends in nitrogen fertilization and deposition. When compared with statistical data, ORCHIDEE-GM captures well the observed phase of climate-driven interannual variability in grassland production well, whereas the magnitude of the interannual variability in modeled productivity is larger than the statistical data. Regional grass-fed livestock numbers can be reproduced by ORCHIDEE-GM based on its simple assumptions and parameterization about productivity being the only limiting factor to define the sustainable number of animals per unit area. Causes for regional model-data misfits are discussed, including uncertainties in farming practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer application, and mowing and grazing intensity) and in ruminant diet composition, as well as uncertainties in the statistical data and in model parameter values. PMID:26018186

Space Weather Activities of IONOLAB Group: TEC Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arikan, F.; Yilmaz, A.; Arikan, O.; Sayin, I.; Gurun, M.; Akdogan, K. E.; Yildirim, S. A.

2009-04-01

Being a key player in Space Weather, ionospheric variability affects the performance of both communication and navigation systems. To improve the performance of these systems, ionosphere has to be monitored. Total Electron Content (TEC), line integral of the electron density along a ray path, is an important parameter to investigate the ionospheric variability. A cost-effective way of obtaining TEC is by using dual-frequency GPS receivers. Since these measurements are sparse in space, accurate and robust interpolation techniques are needed to interpolate (or map) the TEC distribution for a given region in space. However, the TEC data derived from GPS measurements contain measurement noise, model and computational errors. Thus, it is necessary to analyze the interpolation performance of the techniques on synthetic data sets that can represent various ionospheric states. By this way, interpolation performance of the techniques can be compared over many parameters that can be controlled to represent the desired ionospheric states. In this study, Multiquadrics, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Cubic Splines, Ordinary and Universal Kriging, Random Field Priors (RFP), Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN), and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) are employed as the spatial interpolation algorithms. These mapping techniques are initially tried on synthetic TEC surfaces for parameter and coefficient optimization and determination of error bounds. Interpolation performance of these methods are compared on synthetic TEC surfaces over the parameters of sampling pattern, number of samples, the variability of the surface and the trend type in the TEC surfaces. By examining the performance of the interpolation methods, it is observed that both Kriging, RFP and NN have important advantages and possible disadvantages depending on the given constraints. It is also observed that the determining parameter in the error performance is the trend in the Ionosphere. Optimization of the algorithms in terms of their performance parameters (like the choice of the semivariogram function for Kriging algorithms and the hidden layer and neuron numbers for MLP-NN) mostly depend on the behavior of the ionosphere at that given time instant for the desired region. The sampling pattern and number of samples are the other important parameters that may contribute to the higher errors in reconstruction. For example, for all of the above listed algorithms, hexagonal regular sampling of the ionosphere provides the lowest reconstruction error and the performance significantly degrades as the samples in the region become sparse and clustered. The optimized models and coefficients are applied to regional GPS-TEC mapping using the IONOLAB-TEC data (www.ionolab.org). Both Kriging combined with Kalman Filter and dynamic modeling of NN are also implemented as first trials of TEC and space weather predictions.

Tetrahedrality and hydrogen bonds in water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Székely, Eszter; Varga, Imre K.; Baranyai, András

2016-06-01

We carried out extensive calculations of liquid water at different temperatures and pressures using the BK3 model suggested recently [P. T. Kiss and A. Baranyai, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 204507 (2013)]. In particular, we were interested in undercooled regions to observe the propensity of water to form tetrahedral coordination of closest neighbors around a central molecule. We compared the found tetrahedral order with the number of hydrogen bonds and with the partial pair correlation functions unfolded as distributions of the closest, the second closest, etc. neighbors. We found that contrary to the number of hydrogen bonds, tetrahedrality changes substantially with state variables. Not only the number of tetrahedral arrangements increases with lowering the pressure, the density, and the temperature but the domain size of connecting tetrahedral structures as well. The difference in tetrahedrality is very pronounced between the two sides of the Widom line and even more so between the low density amorphous (LDA) and high density amorphous (HDA) phases. We observed that in liquid water and in HDA, the 5th water molecule, contrary to ice and LDA, is positioned between the first and the second coordination shell. We found no convincing evidence of structural heterogeneity or regions referring to structural transition.

Comparisons of estimates of annual exceedance-probability discharges for small drainage basins in Iowa, based on data through water year 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, David A.

2015-01-01

An examination was conducted to understand why the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias than either of the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs. A comparison of 1-percent annual exceedance-probability regression lines for hydrologic regions 1-4 from the 1987 single-variable RREs and for flood regions 1-3 from the 2013 single-variable RREs indicates that the 1987 single-variable regional-regression lines generally have steeper slopes and lower discharges when compared to 2013 single-variable regional-regression lines for corresponding areas of Iowa. The combination of the definition of hydrologic regions, the lower discharges, and the steeper slopes of regression lines associated with the 1987 single-variable RREs seem to provide better accuracy and less bias when compared to the 2013 multi- or single-variable RREs; better accuracy and less bias was determined particularly for drainage areas less than 2 mi2, and also for some drainage areas between 2 and 20 mi2. The 2013 multi- and single-variable RREs are considered to provide better accuracy and less bias for larger drainage areas. Results of this study indicate that additional research is needed to address the curvilinear relation between drainage area and AEPDs for areas of Iowa.

The Impacts of Spatiotemporal Landscape Changes on Water Quality in Shenzhen, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhenhuan; Yang, Haiyan

2018-01-01

The urban landscape in China has changed rapidly over the past four decades, which has led to various environmental consequences, such as water quality degradation at the regional scale. To improve water restoration strategies and policies, this study assessed the relationship between water quality and landscape change in Shenzhen, China, using panel regression analysis. The results show that decreases in natural and semi-natural landscape compositions have had significant negative effects on water quality. Landscape composition and configuration changes accounted for 39–58% of the variation in regional water quality degradation. Additionally, landscape fragmentation indices, such as patch density (PD) and the number of patches (NP), are important indicators of the drivers of water quality degradation. PD accounted for 2.03–5.44% of the variability in water quality, while NP accounted for −1.63% to −4.98% of the variability. These results indicate that reducing landscape fragmentation and enhancing natural landscape composition at the watershed scale are vital to improving regional water quality. The study findings suggest that urban landscape optimization is a promising strategy for mitigating urban water quality degradation, and the results can be used in policy making for the sustainable development of the hydrological environment in rapidly urbanizing areas. PMID:29786672