Regression-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Harp, Dylan Robert

Reduced-order modeling is a promising approach, as many phenomena can be described by a few parameters/mechanisms. An advantage and attractive aspect of a reduced-order model is that it is computational inexpensive to evaluate when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. A reduced-order model takes couple of seconds to run on a laptop while a high-fidelity simulation may take couple of hours to run on a high-performance computing cluster. The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of regression-based reduced-order models (ROMs) developed from high-fidelity numerical simulations for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoirmore » while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on equally spaced values in the specified range of model parameters. Key sensitive parameters are then identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. We found the fracture zone permeability to be the most sensitive parameter. The fracture zone permeability along with time, are used to build regression-based ROMs for the thermal power output. The ROMs are trained and validated using detailed physics-based numerical simulations. Finally, predictions from the ROMs are then compared with field data. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production curves. The coefficients in the proposed regression-based ROMs are developed by minimizing a non-linear least-squares misfit function using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The misfit function is based on the difference between numerical simulation data and reduced-order model. ROM-1 is constructed based on polynomials up to fourth order. ROM-1 is able to accurately reproduce the power output of numerical simulations for low values of permeabilities and certain features of the field-scale data. ROM-2 is a model with more analytical functions consisting of polynomials up to order eight, exponential functions and smooth approximations of Heaviside functions, and accurately describes the field-data. At higher permeabilities, ROM-2 reproduces numerical results better than ROM-1, however, there is a considerable deviation from numerical results at low fracture zone permeabilities. ROM-3 consists of polynomials up to order ten, and is developed by taking the best aspects of ROM-1 and ROM-2. ROM-1 is relatively parsimonious than ROM-2 and ROM-3, while ROM-2 overfits the data. ROM-3 on the other hand, provides a middle ground for model parsimony. Based on R 2-values for training, validation, and prediction data sets we found that ROM-3 is better model than ROM-2 and ROM-1. For predicting thermal drawdown in EGS applications, where high fracture zone permeabilities (typically greater than 10 –15 m 2) are desired, ROM-2 and ROM-3 outperform ROM-1. As per computational time, all the ROMs are 10 4 times faster when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. In conclusion, this makes the proposed regression-based ROMs attractive for real-time EGS applications because they are fast and provide reasonably good predictions for thermal power output.« less

Regression-based reduced-order models to predict transient thermal output for enhanced geothermal systems

DOE PAGES

Mudunuru, Maruti Kumar; Karra, Satish; Harp, Dylan Robert; ...

2017-07-10

Reduced-order modeling is a promising approach, as many phenomena can be described by a few parameters/mechanisms. An advantage and attractive aspect of a reduced-order model is that it is computational inexpensive to evaluate when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. A reduced-order model takes couple of seconds to run on a laptop while a high-fidelity simulation may take couple of hours to run on a high-performance computing cluster. The goal of this paper is to assess the utility of regression-based reduced-order models (ROMs) developed from high-fidelity numerical simulations for predicting transient thermal power output for an enhanced geothermal reservoirmore » while explicitly accounting for uncertainties in the subsurface system and site-specific details. Numerical simulations are performed based on equally spaced values in the specified range of model parameters. Key sensitive parameters are then identified from these simulations, which are fracture zone permeability, well/skin factor, bottom hole pressure, and injection flow rate. We found the fracture zone permeability to be the most sensitive parameter. The fracture zone permeability along with time, are used to build regression-based ROMs for the thermal power output. The ROMs are trained and validated using detailed physics-based numerical simulations. Finally, predictions from the ROMs are then compared with field data. We propose three different ROMs with different levels of model parsimony, each describing key and essential features of the power production curves. The coefficients in the proposed regression-based ROMs are developed by minimizing a non-linear least-squares misfit function using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. The misfit function is based on the difference between numerical simulation data and reduced-order model. ROM-1 is constructed based on polynomials up to fourth order. ROM-1 is able to accurately reproduce the power output of numerical simulations for low values of permeabilities and certain features of the field-scale data. ROM-2 is a model with more analytical functions consisting of polynomials up to order eight, exponential functions and smooth approximations of Heaviside functions, and accurately describes the field-data. At higher permeabilities, ROM-2 reproduces numerical results better than ROM-1, however, there is a considerable deviation from numerical results at low fracture zone permeabilities. ROM-3 consists of polynomials up to order ten, and is developed by taking the best aspects of ROM-1 and ROM-2. ROM-1 is relatively parsimonious than ROM-2 and ROM-3, while ROM-2 overfits the data. ROM-3 on the other hand, provides a middle ground for model parsimony. Based on R 2-values for training, validation, and prediction data sets we found that ROM-3 is better model than ROM-2 and ROM-1. For predicting thermal drawdown in EGS applications, where high fracture zone permeabilities (typically greater than 10 –15 m 2) are desired, ROM-2 and ROM-3 outperform ROM-1. As per computational time, all the ROMs are 10 4 times faster when compared to running a high-fidelity numerical simulation. In conclusion, this makes the proposed regression-based ROMs attractive for real-time EGS applications because they are fast and provide reasonably good predictions for thermal power output.« less

Predictive Relation between Early Numerical Competencies and Mathematics Achievement in First Grade Portuguese Children.

PubMed

Marcelino, Lilia; de Sousa, Óscar; Lopes, António

2017-01-01

Early numerical competencies (ENC) (counting, number relations, and basic arithmetic operations) have a central position in the initial learning of mathematics, and their assessment is useful for predicting later mathematics achievement. Using a regression model, this study aims to analyze the correlational and predictive evidence between ENC and mathematics achievement in first grade Portuguese children ( n = 123). The children's ENC were examined at the point of school entry. Three criterion groups (low, moderate, and high ENC) were formed based on the results of the early numerical brief screener and mathematics achievement measured at the end of first grade. The following hypotheses were tested: children who started first grade with low numerical competencies remained low mathematics achievement at the end of first grade; and children who started with high numerical competencies, finished the first grade with high mathematics achievement. The results showed that ENC contributed to a significant amount of explained variance in mathematics achievement at the end of the first grade. Children with low numerical competencies performed lower than children with moderate and high numerical competencies. Findings suggest that ENC are meaningful for predicting first-grade mathematics difficulties.

Predictive Relation between Early Numerical Competencies and Mathematics Achievement in First Grade Portuguese Children

PubMed Central

Marcelino, Lilia; de Sousa, Óscar; Lopes, António

2017-01-01

Early numerical competencies (ENC) (counting, number relations, and basic arithmetic operations) have a central position in the initial learning of mathematics, and their assessment is useful for predicting later mathematics achievement. Using a regression model, this study aims to analyze the correlational and predictive evidence between ENC and mathematics achievement in first grade Portuguese children (n = 123). The children’s ENC were examined at the point of school entry. Three criterion groups (low, moderate, and high ENC) were formed based on the results of the early numerical brief screener and mathematics achievement measured at the end of first grade. The following hypotheses were tested: children who started first grade with low numerical competencies remained low mathematics achievement at the end of first grade; and children who started with high numerical competencies, finished the first grade with high mathematics achievement. The results showed that ENC contributed to a significant amount of explained variance in mathematics achievement at the end of the first grade. Children with low numerical competencies performed lower than children with moderate and high numerical competencies. Findings suggest that ENC are meaningful for predicting first-grade mathematics difficulties. PMID:28713308

Adaptive MPC based on MIMO ARX-Laguerre model.

PubMed

Ben Abdelwahed, Imen; Mbarek, Abdelkader; Bouzrara, Kais

2017-03-01

This paper proposes a method for synthesizing an adaptive predictive controller using a reduced complexity model. This latter is given by the projection of the ARX model on Laguerre bases. The resulting model is entitled MIMO ARX-Laguerre and it is characterized by an easy recursive representation. The adaptive predictive control law is computed based on multi-step-ahead finite-element predictors, identified directly from experimental input/output data. The model is tuned in each iteration by an online identification algorithms of both model parameters and Laguerre poles. The proposed approach avoids time consuming numerical optimization algorithms associated with most common linear predictive control strategies, which makes it suitable for real-time implementation. The method is used to synthesize and test in numerical simulations adaptive predictive controllers for the CSTR process benchmark. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basic numerical competences in large-scale assessment data: Structure and long-term relevance.

PubMed

Hirsch, Stefa; Lambert, Katharina; Coppens, Karien; Moeller, Korbinian

2018-03-01

Basic numerical competences are seen as building blocks for later numerical and mathematical achievement. The current study aimed at investigating the structure of early numeracy reflected by different basic numerical competences in kindergarten and its predictive value for mathematical achievement 6 years later using data from large-scale assessment. This allowed analyses based on considerably large sample sizes (N > 1700). A confirmatory factor analysis indicated that a model differentiating five basic numerical competences at the end of kindergarten fitted the data better than a one-factor model of early numeracy representing a comprehensive number sense. In addition, these basic numerical competences were observed to reliably predict performance in a curricular mathematics test in Grade 6 even after controlling for influences of general cognitive ability. Thus, our results indicated a differentiated view on early numeracy considering basic numerical competences in kindergarten reflected in large-scale assessment data. Consideration of different basic numerical competences allows for evaluating their specific predictive value for later mathematical achievement but also mathematical learning difficulties. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical Study of Solar Storms from the Sun to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Zhou, Yufen

2017-04-01

As solar storms are sweeping the Earth, adverse changes occur in geospace environment. How human can mitigate and avoid destructive damages caused by solar storms becomes an important frontier issue that we must face in the high-tech times. It is of both scientific significance to understand the dynamic process during solar storm's propagation in interplanetary space and realistic value to conduct physics-based numerical researches on the three-dimensional process of solar storms in interplanetary space with the aid of powerful computing capacity to predict the arrival times, intensities, and probable geoeffectiveness of solar storms at the Earth. So far, numerical studies based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have gone through the transition from the initial qualitative principle researches to systematic quantitative studies on concrete events and numerical predictions. Numerical modeling community has a common goal to develop an end-to-end physics-based modeling system for forecasting the Sun-Earth relationship. It is hoped that the transition of these models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by incorporating the observational findings and constraints into physics-based models, combining the observations, empirical models and MHD simulations in organic ways. In this talk, we briefly focus on our recent progress in using solar observations to produce realistic magnetic configurations of CMEs as they leave the Sun, and coupling data-driven simulations of CMEs to heliospheric simulations that then propagate the CME configuration to 1AU, and outlook the important numerical issues and their possible solutions in numerical space weather modeling from the Sun to Earth for future research.

Strategies for Near Real Time Estimates of Precipitable Water Vapor from GPS Ground Receivers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Y., Bar-Sever; Runge, T.; Kroger, P.

1995-01-01

GPS-based estimates of precipitable water vapor (PWV) may be useful in numerical weather models to improve short-term weather predictions. To be effective in numerical weather prediction models, GPS PWV estimates must be produced with sufficient accuracy in near real time. Several estimation strategies for the near real time processing of GPS data are investigated.

Numerical modelling of effective thermal conductivity for modified geomaterial using lattice element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizvi, Zarghaam Haider; Shrestha, Dinesh; Sattari, Amir S.; Wuttke, Frank

2018-02-01

Macroscopic parameters such as effective thermal conductivity (ETC) is an important parameter which is affected by micro and meso level behaviour of particulate materials, and has been extensively examined in the past decades. In this paper, a new lattice based numerical model is developed to predict the ETC of sand and modified high thermal backfill material for energy transportation used for underground power cables. 2D and 3D simulations are performed to analyse and detect differences resulting from model simplification. The thermal conductivity of the granular mixture is determined numerically considering the volume and the shape of the each constituting portion. The new numerical method is validated with transient needle measurements and the existing theoretical and semi empirical models for thermal conductivity prediction sand and the modified backfill material for dry condition. The numerical prediction and the measured values are in agreement to a large extent.

Numerical Simulation of Monitoring Corrosion in Reinforced Concrete Based on Ultrasonic Guided Waves

PubMed Central

Zheng, Zhupeng; Lei, Ying; Xue, Xin

2014-01-01

Numerical simulation based on finite element method is conducted to predict the location of pitting corrosion in reinforced concrete. Simulation results show that it is feasible to predict corrosion monitoring based on ultrasonic guided wave in reinforced concrete, and wavelet analysis can be used for the extremely weak signal of guided waves due to energy leaking into concrete. The characteristic of time-frequency localization of wavelet transform is adopted in the corrosion monitoring of reinforced concrete. Guided waves can be successfully used to identify corrosion defects in reinforced concrete with the analysis of suitable wavelet-based function and its scale. PMID:25013865

Numerical analysis of biosonar beamforming mechanisms and strategies in bats.

PubMed

Müller, Rolf

2010-09-01

Beamforming is critical to the function of most sonar systems. The conspicuous noseleaf and pinna shapes in bats suggest that beamforming mechanisms based on diffraction of the outgoing and incoming ultrasonic waves play a major role in bat biosonar. Numerical methods can be used to investigate the relationships between baffle geometry, acoustic mechanisms, and resulting beampatterns. Key advantages of numerical approaches are: efficient, high-resolution estimation of beampatterns, spatially dense predictions of near-field amplitudes, and the malleability of the underlying shape representations. A numerical approach that combines near-field predictions based on a finite-element formulation for harmonic solutions to the Helmholtz equation with a free-field projection based on the Kirchhoff integral to obtain estimates of the far-field beampattern is reviewed. This method has been used to predict physical beamforming mechanisms such as frequency-dependent beamforming with half-open resonance cavities in the noseleaf of horseshoe bats and beam narrowing through extension of the pinna aperture with skin folds in false vampire bats. The fine structure of biosonar beampatterns is discussed for the case of the Chinese noctule and methods for assessing the spatial information conveyed by beampatterns are demonstrated for the brown long-eared bat.

Experimental characterization and numerical modeling of tissue electrical conductivity during pulsed electric fields for irreversible electroporation treatment planning.

PubMed

Neal, Robert E; Garcia, Paulo A; Robertson, John L; Davalos, Rafael V

2012-04-01

Irreversible electroporation is a new technique to kill cells in targeted tissue, such as tumors, through a nonthermal mechanism using electric pulses to irrecoverably disrupt the cell membrane. Treatment effects relate to the tissue electric field distribution, which can be predicted with numerical modeling for therapy planning. Pulse effects will change the cell and tissue properties through thermal and electroporation (EP)-based processes. This investigation characterizes these changes by measuring the electrical conductivity and temperature of ex vivo renal porcine tissue within a single pulse and for a 200 pulse protocol. These changes are incorporated into an equivalent circuit model for cells and tissue with a variable EP-based resistance, providing a potential method to estimate conductivity as a function of electric field and pulse length for other tissues. Finally, a numerical model using a human kidney volumetric mesh evaluated how treatment predictions vary when EP- and temperature-based electrical conductivity changes are incorporated. We conclude that significant changes in predicted outcomes will occur when the experimental results are applied to the numerical model, where the direction and degree of change varies with the electric field considered.

Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

2017-09-01

'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

Operational Dust Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas;

Towards an Airframe Noise Prediction Methodology: Survey of Current Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farassat, Fereidoun; Casper, Jay H.

2006-01-01

In this paper, we present a critical survey of the current airframe noise (AFN) prediction methodologies. Four methodologies are recognized. These are the fully analytic method, CFD combined with the acoustic analogy, the semi-empirical method and fully numerical method. It is argued that for the immediate need of the aircraft industry, the semi-empirical method based on recent high quality acoustic database is the best available method. The method based on CFD and the Ffowcs William- Hawkings (FW-H) equation with penetrable data surface (FW-Hpds ) has advanced considerably and much experience has been gained in its use. However, more research is needed in the near future particularly in the area of turbulence simulation. The fully numerical method will take longer to reach maturity. Based on the current trends, it is predicted that this method will eventually develop into the method of choice. Both the turbulence simulation and propagation methods need to develop more for this method to become useful. Nonetheless, the authors propose that the method based on a combination of numerical and analytical techniques, e.g., CFD combined with FW-H equation, should also be worked on. In this effort, the current symbolic algebra software will allow more analytical approaches to be incorporated into AFN prediction methods.

Investigation of 2-Dimensional Isotropy of Under-Ice Roughness in the Beaufort Gyre and Implications for Mixed Layer Ocean Turbulence

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

this roughness is important for numerical modeling and prediction of the Arctic air-ice-ocean system, which will play a significant role as the US Navy...is important for numerical modeling and prediction of the Arctic air-ice-ocean system, which will play a significant role as the US Navy increases... Model 1 is based on a sequence of plane parallel layers each with a constant gradient whereas Model 2 is based on a series of flat layers of

Using the surface panel method to predict the steady performance of ducted propellers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Hao-Peng; Su, Yu-Min; Li, Xin; Shen, Hai-Long

2009-12-01

A new numerical method was developed for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of ducted propellers. A potential based surface panel method was applied both to the duct and the propeller, and the interaction between them was solved by an induced velocity potential iterative method. Compared with the induced velocity iterative method, the method presented can save programming and calculating time. Numerical results for a JD simplified ducted propeller series showed that the method presented is effective for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of ducted propellers.

Improvement of PM concentration predictability using WRF-CMAQ-DLM coupled system and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Soon Hwan; Kim, Ji Sun; Lee, Kang Yeol; Shon, Keon Tae

2017-04-01

Air quality due to increasing Particulate Matter(PM) in Korea in Asia is getting worse. At present, the PM forecast is announced based on the PM concentration predicted from the air quality prediction numerical model. However, forecast accuracy is not as high as expected due to various uncertainties for PM physical and chemical characteristics. The purpose of this study was to develop a numerical-statistically ensemble models to improve the accuracy of prediction of PM10 concentration. Numerical models used in this study are the three dimensional atmospheric model Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) and the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). The target areas for the PM forecast are Seoul, Busan, Daegu, and Daejeon metropolitan areas in Korea. The data used in the model development are PM concentration and CMAQ predictions and the data period is 3 months (March 1 - May 31, 2014). The dynamic-statistical technics for reducing the systematic error of the CMAQ predictions was applied to the dynamic linear model(DLM) based on the Baysian Kalman filter technic. As a result of applying the metrics generated from the dynamic linear model to the forecasting of PM concentrations accuracy was improved. Especially, at the high PM concentration where the damage is relatively large, excellent improvement results are shown.

An efficient numerical procedure for thermohydrodynamic analysis of cavitating bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vijayaraghavan, D.

1995-01-01

An efficient and accurate numerical procedure to determine the thermo-hydrodynamic performance of cavitating bearings is described. This procedure is based on the earlier development of Elrod for lubricating films, in which the properties across the film thickness are determined at Lobatto points and their distributions are expressed by collocated polynomials. The cavitated regions and their boundaries are rigorously treated. Thermal boundary conditions at the surfaces, including heat dissipation through the metal to the ambient, are incorporated. Numerical examples are presented comparing the predictions using this procedure with earlier theoretical predictions and experimental data. With a few points across the film thickness and across the journal and the bearing in the radial direction, the temperature profile is very well predicted.

Formability prediction for AHSS materials using damage models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaral, R.; Santos, Abel D.; José, César de Sá; Miranda, Sara

2017-05-01

Advanced high strength steels (AHSS) are seeing an increased use, mostly due to lightweight design in automobile industry and strict regulations on safety and greenhouse gases emissions. However, the use of these materials, characterized by a high strength to weight ratio, stiffness and high work hardening at early stages of plastic deformation, have imposed many challenges in sheet metal industry, mainly their low formability and different behaviour, when compared to traditional steels, which may represent a defying task, both to obtain a successful component and also when using numerical simulation to predict material behaviour and its fracture limits. Although numerical prediction of critical strains in sheet metal forming processes is still very often based on the classic forming limit diagrams, alternative approaches can use damage models, which are based on stress states to predict failure during the forming process and they can be classified as empirical, physics based and phenomenological models. In the present paper a comparative analysis of different ductile damage models is carried out, in order numerically evaluate two isotropic coupled damage models proposed by Johnson-Cook and Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN), each of them corresponding to the first two previous group classification. Finite element analysis is used considering these damage mechanics approaches and the obtained results are compared with experimental Nakajima tests, thus being possible to evaluate and validate the ability to predict damage and formability limits for previous defined approaches.

Numerical Algorithms for Acoustic Integrals - The Devil is in the Details

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brentner, Kenneth S.

1996-01-01

The accurate prediction of the aeroacoustic field generated by aerospace vehicles or nonaerospace machinery is necessary for designers to control and reduce source noise. Powerful computational aeroacoustic methods, based on various acoustic analogies (primarily the Lighthill acoustic analogy) and Kirchhoff methods, have been developed for prediction of noise from complicated sources, such as rotating blades. Both methods ultimately predict the noise through a numerical evaluation of an integral formulation. In this paper, we consider three generic acoustic formulations and several numerical algorithms that have been used to compute the solutions to these formulations. Algorithms for retarded-time formulations are the most efficient and robust, but they are difficult to implement for supersonic-source motion. Collapsing-sphere and emission-surface formulations are good alternatives when supersonic-source motion is present, but the numerical implementations of these formulations are more computationally demanding. New algorithms - which utilize solution adaptation to provide a specified error level - are needed.

Modelling and control issues of dynamically substructured systems: adaptive forward prediction taken as an example

PubMed Central

Tu, Jia-Ying; Hsiao, Wei-De; Chen, Chih-Ying

2014-01-01

Testing techniques of dynamically substructured systems dissects an entire engineering system into parts. Components can be tested via numerical simulation or physical experiments and run synchronously. Additional actuator systems, which interface numerical and physical parts, are required within the physical substructure. A high-quality controller, which is designed to cancel unwanted dynamics introduced by the actuators, is important in order to synchronize the numerical and physical outputs and ensure successful tests. An adaptive forward prediction (AFP) algorithm based on delay compensation concepts has been proposed to deal with substructuring control issues. Although the settling performance and numerical conditions of the AFP controller are improved using new direct-compensation and singular value decomposition methods, the experimental results show that a linear dynamics-based controller still outperforms the AFP controller. Based on experimental observations, the least-squares fitting technique, effectiveness of the AFP compensation and differences between delay and ordinary differential equations are discussed herein, in order to reflect the fundamental issues of actuator modelling in relevant literature and, more specifically, to show that the actuator and numerical substructure are heterogeneous dynamic components and should not be collectively modelled as a homogeneous delay differential equation. PMID:25104902

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Axially Compressed Circular Cylindrical Fiber-Reinforced Panels with Various Boundary Conditions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-10-01

Numerical predictions used in the compari- sons were obtained from the energy -based, finite-difference computer proqram CLAPP. Test specimens were clamped...edges V LONGITUDINAL STIFFENERS 45 I. Introduction 45 2. Stiffener Strain Energy 46 3. Stiffener Energy in Matrix Form 47 4. Displacement Continuity 49...that theoretical bifurcation loads predicted by the energy method represent upper bounds to the classical bifurcation loads associated with the test

NWP model forecast skill optimization via closure parameter variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Järvinen, H.; Ollinaho, P.; Laine, M.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

2012-04-01

We present results of a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. The current practice is to specify manually the numerical parameter values, based on expert knowledge. We developed recently a concept and method (QJRMS 2011) for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters via closure parameter variations. The method called EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") utilizes ensemble prediction infra-structure for parameter estimation in a very cost-effective way: practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating an ensemble of predictions so that each member uses different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In this presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an ensemble prediction system emulator, based on the ECHAM5 atmospheric GCM show that the model tuning capability of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, preliminary results of EPPES in the context of ECMWF forecasting system are presented.

Plasmonic Light Trapping in Thin-Film Solar Cells: Impact of Modeling on Performance Prediction

PubMed Central

Micco, Alberto; Pisco, Marco; Ricciardi, Armando; Mercaldo, Lucia V.; Usatii, Iurie; La Ferrara, Vera; Delli Veneri, Paola; Cutolo, Antonello; Cusano, Andrea

2015-01-01

We present a comparative study on numerical models used to predict the absorption enhancement in thin-film solar cells due to the presence of structured back-reflectors exciting, at specific wavelengths, hybrid plasmonic-photonic resonances. To evaluate the effectiveness of the analyzed models, they have been applied in a case study: starting from a U-shaped textured glass thin-film, µc-Si:H solar cells have been successfully fabricated. The fabricated cells, with different intrinsic layer thicknesses, have been morphologically, optically and electrically characterized. The experimental results have been successively compared with the numerical predictions. We have found that, in contrast to basic models based on the underlying schematics of the cell, numerical models taking into account the real morphology of the fabricated device, are able to effectively predict the cells performances in terms of both optical absorption and short-circuit current values.

A comparative study between experimental results and numerical predictions of multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Peck, Jeffrey A.

1992-01-01

Over the last three decades, multiwall structures have been analyzed extensively, primarily through experiment, as a means of increasing the protection afforded to spacecraft structure. However, as structural configurations become more varied, the number of tests required to characterize their response increases dramatically. As an alternative, numerical modeling of high-speed impact phenomena is often being used to predict the response of a variety of structural systems under impact loading conditions. This paper presents the results of a preliminary numerical/experimental investigation of the hypervelocity impact response of multiwall structures. The results of experimental high-speed impact tests are compared against the predictions of the HULL hydrodynamic computer code. It is shown that the hypervelocity impact response characteristics of a specific system cannot be accurately predicted from a limited number of HULL code impact simulations. However, if a wide range of impact loadings conditions are considered, then the ballistic limit curve of the system based on the entire series of numerical simulations can be used as a relatively accurate indication of actual system response.

Numerical Analysis of Base Flowfield for a Four-Engine Clustered Nozzle Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See

1995-01-01

Excessive base heating has been a problem for many launch vehicles. For certain designs such as the direct dump of turbine exhaust inside and at the lip of the nozzle, the potential burning of the turbine exhaust in the base region can be of great concern. Accurate prediction of the base environment at altitudes is therefore very important during the vehicle design phase. Otherwise, undesirable consequences may occur. In this study, the turbulent base flowfield of a cold flow experimental investigation for a four-engine clustered nozzle was numerically benchmarked using a pressure-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. This is a necessary step before the benchmarking of hot flow and combustion flow tests can be considered. Since the medium was unheated air, reasonable prediction of the base pressure distribution at high altitude was the main goal. Several physical phenomena pertaining to the multiengine clustered nozzle base flow physics were deduced from the analysis.

Estimation of state and material properties during heat-curing molding of composite materials using data assimilation: A numerical study.

PubMed

Matsuzaki, Ryosuke; Tachikawa, Takeshi; Ishizuka, Junya

2018-03-01

Accurate simulations of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) molding are vital for the development of high-quality products. However, such simulations are challenging and previous attempts to improve the accuracy of simulations by incorporating the data acquired from mold monitoring have not been completely successful. Therefore, in the present study, we developed a method to accurately predict various CFRP thermoset molding characteristics based on data assimilation, a process that combines theoretical and experimental values. The degree of cure as well as temperature and thermal conductivity distributions during the molding process were estimated using both temperature data and numerical simulations. An initial numerical experiment demonstrated that the internal mold state could be determined solely from the surface temperature values. A subsequent numerical experiment to validate this method showed that estimations based on surface temperatures were highly accurate in the case of degree of cure and internal temperature, although predictions of thermal conductivity were more difficult.

Lumley's PODT definition of large eddies and a trio of numerical procedures. [Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Theorem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, Fred R.

1992-01-01

Lumley's 1967 Moscow paper provided, for the first time, a completely rational definition of the physically-useful term 'large eddy', popular for a half-century. The numerical procedures based upon his results are: (1) PODT (Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Theorem), which extracts the Large Eddy structure of stochastic processes from physical or computer simulation two-point covariances, and 2) LEIM (Large-Eddy Interaction Model), a predictive scheme for the dynamical large eddies based upon higher order turbulence modeling. Earlier Lumley's work (1964) forms the basis for the final member of the triad of numerical procedures: this predicts the global neutral modes of turbulence which have surprising agreement with both structural eigenmodes and those obtained from the dynamical equations. The ultimate goal of improved engineering design tools for turbulence may be near at hand, partly due to the power and storage of 'supermicrocomputer' workstations finally becoming adequate for the demanding numerics of these procedures.

Chaotic time series prediction for prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls in umbilical cord blood using the least squares SEATR model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xijin; Tang, Qian; Xia, Haiyue; Zhang, Yuling; Li, Weiqiu; Huo, Xia

2016-04-01

Chaotic time series prediction based on nonlinear systems showed a superior performance in prediction field. We studied prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by chaotic time series prediction using the least squares self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SEATR) model in umbilical cord blood in an electronic waste (e-waste) contaminated area. The specific prediction steps basing on the proposal methods for prenatal PCB exposure were put forward, and the proposed scheme’s validity was further verified by numerical simulation experiments. Experiment results show: 1) seven kinds of PCB congeners negatively correlate with five different indices for birth status: newborn weight, height, gestational age, Apgar score and anogenital distance; 2) prenatal PCB exposed group at greater risks compared to the reference group; 3) PCBs increasingly accumulated with time in newborns; and 4) the possibility of newborns suffering from related diseases in the future was greater. The desirable numerical simulation experiments results demonstrated the feasibility of applying mathematical model in the environmental toxicology field.

Chaotic time series prediction for prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls in umbilical cord blood using the least squares SEATR model

PubMed Central

Xu, Xijin; Tang, Qian; Xia, Haiyue; Zhang, Yuling; Li, Weiqiu; Huo, Xia

2016-01-01

Chaotic time series prediction based on nonlinear systems showed a superior performance in prediction field. We studied prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) by chaotic time series prediction using the least squares self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SEATR) model in umbilical cord blood in an electronic waste (e-waste) contaminated area. The specific prediction steps basing on the proposal methods for prenatal PCB exposure were put forward, and the proposed scheme’s validity was further verified by numerical simulation experiments. Experiment results show: 1) seven kinds of PCB congeners negatively correlate with five different indices for birth status: newborn weight, height, gestational age, Apgar score and anogenital distance; 2) prenatal PCB exposed group at greater risks compared to the reference group; 3) PCBs increasingly accumulated with time in newborns; and 4) the possibility of newborns suffering from related diseases in the future was greater. The desirable numerical simulation experiments results demonstrated the feasibility of applying mathematical model in the environmental toxicology field. PMID:27118260

Application of a coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and coarse-grained (CG) numerical modelling approach to study three-dimensional (3-D) deformations of single cells of different food-plant materials during drying.

PubMed

Rathnayaka, C M; Karunasena, H C P; Senadeera, W; Gu, Y T

2018-03-14

Numerical modelling has gained popularity in many science and engineering streams due to the economic feasibility and advanced analytical features compared to conventional experimental and theoretical models. Food drying is one of the areas where numerical modelling is increasingly applied to improve drying process performance and product quality. This investigation applies a three dimensional (3-D) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and Coarse-Grained (CG) numerical approach to predict the morphological changes of different categories of food-plant cells such as apple, grape, potato and carrot during drying. To validate the model predictions, experimental findings from in-house experimental procedures (for apple) and sources of literature (for grape, potato and carrot) have been utilised. The subsequent comaprison indicate that the model predictions demonstrate a reasonable agreement with the experimental findings, both qualitatively and quantitatively. In this numerical model, a higher computational accuracy has been maintained by limiting the consistency error below 1% for all four cell types. The proposed meshfree-based approach is well-equipped to predict the morphological changes of plant cellular structure over a wide range of moisture contents (10% to 100% dry basis). Compared to the previous 2-D meshfree-based models developed for plant cell drying, the proposed model can draw more useful insights on the morphological behaviour due to the 3-D nature of the model. In addition, the proposed computational modelling approach has a high potential to be used as a comprehensive tool in many other tissue morphology related investigations.

Measurement and prediction of the thermomechanical response of shape memory alloy hybrid composite beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Brian; Turner, Travis L.; Seelecke, Stefan

2005-05-01

Previous work at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) involved fabrication and testing of composite beams with embedded, pre-strained shape memory alloy (SMA) ribbons within the beam structures. That study also provided comparison of experimental results with numerical predictions from a research code making use of a new thermoelastic model for shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures. The previous work showed qualitative validation of the numerical model. However, deficiencies in the experimental-numerical correlation were noted and hypotheses for the discrepancies were given for further investigation. The goal of this work is to refine the experimental measurement and numerical modeling approaches in order to better understand the discrepancies, improve the correlation between prediction and measurement, and provide rigorous quantitative validation of the numerical analysis/design tool. The experimental investigation is refined by a more thorough test procedure and incorporation of higher fidelity measurements such as infrared thermography and projection moire interferometry. The numerical results are produced by a recently commercialized version of the constitutive model as implemented in ABAQUS and are refined by incorporation of additional measured parameters such as geometric imperfection. Thermal buckling, post-buckling, and random responses to thermal and inertial (base acceleration) loads are studied. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of SMAHC structures in controlling static and dynamic responses by adaptive stiffening. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured results of the static and dynamic thermomechanical response, thereby providing quantitative validation of the numerical tool.

Measurement and Prediction of the Thermomechanical Response of Shape Memory Alloy Hybrid Composite Beams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Brian; Turner, Travis L.; Seelecke, Stefan

2005-01-01

Previous work at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) involved fabrication and testing of composite beams with embedded, pre-strained shape memory alloy (SMA) ribbons within the beam structures. That study also provided comparison of experimental results with numerical predictions from a research code making use of a new thermoelastic model for shape memory alloy hybrid composite (SMAHC) structures. The previous work showed qualitative validation of the numerical model. However, deficiencies in the experimental-numerical correlation were noted and hypotheses for the discrepancies were given for further investigation. The goal of this work is to refine the experimental measurement and numerical modeling approaches in order to better understand the discrepancies, improve the correlation between prediction and measurement, and provide rigorous quantitative validation of the numerical analysis/design tool. The experimental investigation is refined by a more thorough test procedure and incorporation of higher fidelity measurements such as infrared thermography and projection moire interferometry. The numerical results are produced by a recently commercialized version of the constitutive model as implemented in ABAQUS and are refined by incorporation of additional measured parameters such as geometric imperfection. Thermal buckling, post-buckling, and random responses to thermal and inertial (base acceleration) loads are studied. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of SMAHC structures in controlling static and dynamic responses by adaptive stiffening. Excellent agreement is achieved between the predicted and measured results of the static and dynamic thermomechanical response, thereby providing quantitative validation of the numerical tool.

Long-range temporal correlations in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang growth: numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Tianshu; Xia, Hui

2016-11-01

To analyze long-range temporal correlations in surface growth, we study numerically the (1  +  1)-dimensional Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation driven by temporally correlated noise, and obtain the scaling exponents based on two different numerical methods. Our simulations show that the numerical results are in good agreement with the dynamic renormalization group (DRG) predictions, and are also consistent with the simulation results of the ballistic deposition (BD) model.

Monitoring Marine Weather Systems Using Quikscat and TRMM Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W.; Tang, W.; Datta, A.; Hsu, C.

1999-01-01

We do not understand nor are able to predict marine storms, particularly tropical cyclones, sufficiently well because ground-based measurements are sparse and operational numerical weather prediction models do not have sufficient spatial resolution nor accurate parameterization of the physics.

Experiments Using a Ground-Based Electrostatic Levitator and Numerical Modeling of Melt Convection for the Iron-Cobalt System in Support of Space Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jonghyun; SanSoucie, Michael P.

2017-08-01

Materials research is being conducted using an electromagnetic levitator installed in the International Space Station. Various metallic alloys were tested to elucidate unknown links among the structures, processes, and properties. To accomplish the mission of these space experiments, several ground-based activities have been carried out. This article presents some of our ground-based supporting experiments and numerical modeling efforts. Mass evaporation of Fe50Co50, one of flight compositions, was predicted numerically and validated by the tests using an electrostatic levitator (ESL). The density of various compositions within the Fe-Co system was measured with ESL. These results are being served as reference data for the space experiments. The convection inside a electromagnetically-levitated droplet was also modeled to predict the flow status, shear rate, and convection velocity under various process parameters, which is essential information for designing and analyzing the space experiments of some flight compositions influenced by convection.

Experimental, Numerical, and Analytical Slosh Dynamics of Water and Liquid Nitrogen in a Spherical Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storey, Jedediah Morse

2016-01-01

Understanding, predicting, and controlling fluid slosh dynamics is critical to safety and improving performance of space missions when a significant percentage of the spacecraft's mass is a liquid. Computational fluid dynamics simulations can be used to predict the dynamics of slosh, but these programs require extensive validation. Many experimental and numerical studies of water slosh have been conducted. However, slosh data for cryogenic liquids is lacking. Water and cryogenic liquid nitrogen are used in various ground-based tests with a spherical tank to characterize damping, slosh mode frequencies, and slosh forces. A single ring baffle is installed in the tank for some of the tests. Analytical models for slosh modes, slosh forces, and baffle damping are constructed based on prior work. Select experiments are simulated using a commercial CFD software, and the numerical results are compared to the analytical and experimental results for the purposes of validation and methodology-improvement.

Results from Binary Black Hole Simulations in Astrophysics Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John G.

2007-01-01

Present and planned gravitational wave observatories are opening a new astronomical window to the sky. A key source of gravitational waves is the merger of two black holes. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), in particular, is expected to observe these events with signal-to-noise ratio's in the thousands. To fully reap the scientific benefits of these observations requires a detailed understanding, based on numerical simulations, of the predictions of General Relativity for the waveform signals. New techniques for simulating binary black hole mergers, introduced two years ago, have led to dramatic advances in applied numerical simulation work. Over the last two years, numerical relativity researchers have made tremendous strides in understanding the late stages of binary black hole mergers. Simulations have been applied to test much of the basic physics of binary black hole interactions, showing robust results for merger waveform predictions, and illuminating such phenomena as spin-precession. Calculations have shown that merging systems can be kicked at up to 2500 km/s by the thrust from asymmetric emission. Recently, long lasting simulations of ten or more orbits allow tests of post-Newtonian (PN) approximation results for radiation from the last orbits of the binary's inspiral. Already, analytic waveform models based PN techniques with incorporated information from numerical simulations may be adequate for observations with current ground based observatories. As new advances in simulations continue to rapidly improve our theoretical understanding of the systems, it seems certain that high-precision predictions will be available in time for LISA and other advanced ground-based instruments. Future gravitational wave observatories are expected to make precision.

Study of Variable Turbulent Prandtl Number Model for Heat Transfer to Supercritical Fluids in Vertical Tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Ran; Dai, Xiaoye; Wang, Dabiao; Shi, Lin

2018-06-01

In order to improve the prediction performance of the numerical simulations for heat transfer of supercritical pressure fluids, a variable turbulent Prandtl number (Prt) model for vertical upward flow at supercritical pressures was developed in this study. The effects of Prt on the numerical simulation were analyzed, especially for the heat transfer deterioration conditions. Based on the analyses, the turbulent Prandtl number was modeled as a function of the turbulent viscosity ratio and molecular Prandtl number. The model was evaluated using experimental heat transfer data of CO2, water and Freon. The wall temperatures, including the heat transfer deterioration cases, were more accurately predicted by this model than by traditional numerical calculations with a constant Prt. By analyzing the predicted results with and without the variable Prt model, it was found that the predicted velocity distribution and turbulent mixing characteristics with the variable Prt model are quite different from that predicted by a constant Prt. When heat transfer deterioration occurs, the radial velocity profile deviates from the log-law profile and the restrained turbulent mixing then leads to the deteriorated heat transfer.

Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

2017-12-01

In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

Fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and hybrid modelling of horizontal visibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuba, Zoltán; Bottyán, Zsolt

2018-04-01

Forecasting visibility is one of the greatest challenges in aviation meteorology. At the same time, high accuracy visibility forecasts can significantly reduce or make avoidable weather-related risk in aviation as well. To improve forecasting visibility, this research links fuzzy logic-based analogue forecasting and post-processed numerical weather prediction model outputs in hybrid forecast. Performance of analogue forecasting model was improved by the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then, linear combination of the mentioned outputs was applied to create ultra-short term hybrid visibility prediction which gradually shifts the focus from statistical to numerical products taking their advantages during the forecast period. It gives the opportunity to bring closer the numerical visibility forecast to the observations even it is wrong initially. Complete verification of categorical forecasts was carried out; results are available for persistence and terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) as well in order to compare. The average value of Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of examined airports of analogue and hybrid forecasts shows very similar results even at the end of forecast period where the rate of analogue prediction in the final hybrid output is 0.1-0.2 only. However, in case of poor visibility (1000-2500 m), hybrid (0.65) and analogue forecasts (0.64) have similar average of HSS in the first 6 h of forecast period, and have better performance than persistence (0.60) or TAF (0.56). Important achievement that hybrid model takes into consideration physics and dynamics of the atmosphere due to the increasing part of the numerical weather prediction. In spite of this, its performance is similar to the most effective visibility forecasting methods and does not follow the poor verification results of clearly numerical outputs.

Numerical investigation of galloping instabilities in Z-shaped profiles.

PubMed

Gomez, Ignacio; Chavez, Miguel; Alonso, Gustavo; Valero, Eusebio

2014-01-01

Aeroelastic effects are relatively common in the design of modern civil constructions such as office blocks, airport terminal buildings, and factories. Typical flexible structures exposed to the action of wind are shading devices, normally slats or louvers. A typical cross-section for such elements is a Z-shaped profile, made out of a central web and two-side wings. Galloping instabilities are often determined in practice using the Glauert-Den Hartog criterion. This criterion relies on accurate predictions of the dependence of the aerodynamic force coefficients with the angle of attack. The results of a parametric analysis based on a numerical analysis and performed on different Z-shaped louvers to determine translational galloping instability regions are presented in this paper. These numerical analysis results have been validated with a parametric analysis of Z-shaped profiles based on static wind tunnel tests. In order to perform this validation, the DLR TAU Code, which is a standard code within the European aeronautical industry, has been used. This study highlights the focus on the numerical prediction of the effect of galloping, which is shown in a visible way, through stability maps. Comparisons between numerical and experimental data are presented with respect to various meshes and turbulence models.

Prediction of discretization error using the error transport equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celik, Ismail B.; Parsons, Don Roscoe

2017-06-01

This study focuses on an approach to quantify the discretization error associated with numerical solutions of partial differential equations by solving an error transport equation (ETE). The goal is to develop a method that can be used to adequately predict the discretization error using the numerical solution on only one grid/mesh. The primary problem associated with solving the ETE is the formulation of the error source term which is required for accurately predicting the transport of the error. In this study, a novel approach is considered which involves fitting the numerical solution with a series of locally smooth curves and then blending them together with a weighted spline approach. The result is a continuously differentiable analytic expression that can be used to determine the error source term. Once the source term has been developed, the ETE can easily be solved using the same solver that is used to obtain the original numerical solution. The new methodology is applied to the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in the laminar flow regime. A simple unsteady flow case is also considered. The discretization error predictions based on the methodology presented in this study are in good agreement with the 'true error'. While in most cases the error predictions are not quite as accurate as those from Richardson extrapolation, the results are reasonable and only require one numerical grid. The current results indicate that there is much promise going forward with the newly developed error source term evaluation technique and the ETE.

Numerical modelling as a cost-reduction tool for probability of detection of bolt hole eddy current testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandache, C.; Khan, M.; Fahr, A.; Yanishevsky, M.

2011-03-01

Probability of detection (PoD) studies are broadly used to determine the reliability of specific nondestructive inspection procedures, as well as to provide data for damage tolerance life estimations and calculation of inspection intervals for critical components. They require inspections on a large set of samples, a fact that makes these statistical assessments time- and cost-consuming. Physics-based numerical simulations of nondestructive testing inspections could be used as a cost-effective alternative to empirical investigations. They realistically predict the inspection outputs as functions of the input characteristics related to the test piece, transducer and instrument settings, which are subsequently used to partially substitute and/or complement inspection data in PoD analysis. This work focuses on the numerical modelling aspects of eddy current testing for the bolt hole inspections of wing box structures typical of the Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules and P-3 Orion aircraft, found in the air force inventory of many countries. Boundary element-based numerical modelling software was employed to predict the eddy current signal responses when varying inspection parameters related to probe characteristics, crack geometry and test piece properties. Two demonstrator exercises were used for eddy current signal prediction when lowering the driver probe frequency and changing the material's electrical conductivity, followed by subsequent discussions and examination of the implications on using simulated data in the PoD analysis. Despite some simplifying assumptions, the modelled eddy current signals were found to provide similar results to the actual inspections. It is concluded that physics-based numerical simulations have the potential to partially substitute or complement inspection data required for PoD studies, reducing the cost, time, effort and resources necessary for a full empirical PoD assessment.

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

A survey of numerical models for wind prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonfeld, D.

1980-01-01

A literature review is presented of the work done in the numerical modeling of wind flows. Pertinent computational techniques are described, as well as the necessary assumptions used to simplify the governing equations. A steady state model is outlined, based on the data obtained at the Deep Space Communications complex at Goldstone, California.

Chaotic advection at large Péclet number: Electromagnetically driven experiments, numerical simulations, and theoretical predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa, Aldo; Meunier, Patrice; Cuevas, Sergio; Villermaux, Emmanuel; Ramos, Eduardo

2014-01-01

We present a combination of experiment, theory, and modelling on laminar mixing at large Péclet number. The flow is produced by oscillating electromagnetic forces in a thin electrolytic fluid layer, leading to oscillating dipoles, quadrupoles, octopoles, and disordered flows. The numerical simulations are based on the Diffusive Strip Method (DSM) which was recently introduced (P. Meunier and E. Villermaux, "The diffusive strip method for scalar mixing in two-dimensions," J. Fluid Mech. 662, 134-172 (2010)) to solve the advection-diffusion problem by combining Lagrangian techniques and theoretical modelling of the diffusion. Numerical simulations obtained with the DSM are in reasonable agreement with quantitative dye visualization experiments of the scalar fields. A theoretical model based on log-normal Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of stretching factors, characteristic of homogeneous turbulence in the Batchelor regime, allows to predict the PDFs of scalar in agreement with numerical and experimental results. This model also indicates that the PDFs of scalar are asymptotically close to log-normal at late stages, except for the large concentration levels which correspond to low stretching factors.

Response to perturbations for granular flow in a hopper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wambaugh, John F.; Behringer, Robert P.; Matthews, John V.; Gremaud, Pierre A.

2007-11-01

We experimentally investigate the response to perturbations of circular symmetry for dense granular flow inside a three-dimensional right-conical hopper. These experiments consist of particle tracking velocimetry for the flow at the outer boundary of the hopper. We are able to test commonly used constitutive relations and observe granular flow phenomena that we can model numerically. Unperturbed conical hopper flow has been described as a radial velocity field with no azimuthal component. Guided by numerical models based upon continuum descriptions, we find experimental evidence for secondary, azimuthal circulation in response to perturbation of the symmetry with respect to gravity by tilting. For small perturbations we can discriminate between constitutive relations, based upon the agreement between the numerical predictions they produce and our experimental results. We find that the secondary circulation can be suppressed as wall friction is varied, also in agreement with numerical predictions. For large tilt angles we observe the abrupt onset of circulation for parameters where circulation was previously suppressed. Finally, we observe that for large tilt angles the fluctuations in velocity grow, independent of the onset of circulation.

The Coastal Ocean Prediction Systems program: Understanding and managing our coastal ocean

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eden, H.F.; Mooers, C.N.K.

1990-06-01

The goal of COPS is to couple a program of regular observations to numerical models, through techniques of data assimilation, in order to provide a predictive capability for the US coastal ocean including the Great Lakes, estuaries, and the entire Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The objectives of the program include: determining the predictability of the coastal ocean and the processes that govern the predictability; developing efficient prediction systems for the coastal ocean based on the assimilation of real-time observations into numerical models; and coupling the predictive systems for the physical behavior of the coastal ocean to predictive systems for biological,more » chemical, and geological processes to achieve an interdisciplinary capability. COPS will provide the basis for effective monitoring and prediction of coastal ocean conditions by optimizing the use of increased scientific understanding, improved observations, advanced computer models, and computer graphics to make the best possible estimates of sea level, currents, temperatures, salinities, and other properties of entire coastal regions.« less

Numerical analysis of the performance of rock weirs: Effects of structure configuration on local hydraulics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmquist-Johnson, C. L.

2009-01-01

River spanning rock structures are being constructed for water delivery as well as to enable fish passage at barriers and provide or improve the aquatic habitat for endangered fish species. Current design methods are based upon anecdotal information applicable to a narrow range of channel conditions. The complex flow patterns and performance of rock weirs is not well understood. Without accurate understanding of their hydraulics, designers cannot address the failure mechanisms of these structures. Flow characteristics such as jets, near bed velocities, recirculation, eddies, and plunging flow govern scour pool development. These detailed flow patterns can be replicated using a 3D numerical model. Numerical studies inexpensively simulate a large number of cases resulting in an increased range of applicability in order to develop design tools and predictive capability for analysis and design. The analysis and results of the numerical modeling, laboratory modeling, and field data provide a process-based method for understanding how structure geometry affects flow characteristics, scour development, fish passage, water delivery, and overall structure stability. Results of the numerical modeling allow designers to utilize results of the analysis to determine the appropriate geometry for generating desirable flow parameters. The end product of this research will develop tools and guidelines for more robust structure design or retrofits based upon predictable engineering and hydraulic performance criteria. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Integrated fiber-coupled launcher for slow plasmon-polariton waves.

PubMed

Della Valle, Giuseppe; Longhi, Stefano

2012-01-30

We propose and numerically demonstrate an integrated fiber-coupled launcher for slow surface plasmon-polaritons. The device is based on a novel plasmonic mode-converter providing efficient power transfer from the fast to the slow modes of a metallic nanostripe. Total coupling efficiency with standard single-mode fiber approaching 30% (including ohmic losses) has been numerically predicted for a 25-µm long gold-based device operating at 1.55 µm telecom wavelength.

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Sequential Designs Based on Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification in Sparse Representation Surrogate Modeling

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ray -Bing; Wang, Weichung; Jeff Wu, C. F.

2017-04-12

A numerical method, called OBSM, was recently proposed which employs overcomplete basis functions to achieve sparse representations. While the method can handle non-stationary response without the need of inverting large covariance matrices, it lacks the capability to quantify uncertainty in predictions. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach which first imposes a normal prior on the large space of linear coefficients, then applies the MCMC algorithm to generate posterior samples for predictions. From these samples, Bayesian credible intervals can then be obtained to assess prediction uncertainty. A key application for the proposed method is the efficient construction ofmore » sequential designs. Several sequential design procedures with different infill criteria are proposed based on the generated posterior samples. As a result, numerical studies show that the proposed schemes are capable of solving problems of positive point identification, optimization, and surrogate fitting.« less

Prediction of sound fields in acoustical cavities using the boundary element method. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kipp, C. R.; Bernhard, R. J.

1985-01-01

A method was developed to predict sound fields in acoustical cavities. The method is based on the indirect boundary element method. An isoparametric quadratic boundary element is incorporated. Pressure, velocity and/or impedance boundary conditions may be applied to a cavity by using this method. The capability to include acoustic point sources within the cavity is implemented. The method is applied to the prediction of sound fields in spherical and rectangular cavities. All three boundary condition types are verified. Cases with a point source within the cavity domain are also studied. Numerically determined cavity pressure distributions and responses are presented. The numerical results correlate well with available analytical results.

A meta-model based approach for rapid formability estimation of continuous fibre reinforced components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerling, Clemens; Dörr, Dominik; Henning, Frank; Kärger, Luise

2018-05-01

Due to their high mechanical performance, continuous fibre reinforced plastics (CoFRP) become increasingly important for load bearing structures. In many cases, manufacturing CoFRPs comprises a forming process of textiles. To predict and optimise the forming behaviour of a component, numerical simulations are applied. However, for maximum part quality, both the geometry and the process parameters must match in mutual regard, which in turn requires numerous numerically expensive optimisation iterations. In both textile and metal forming, a lot of research has focused on determining optimum process parameters, whilst regarding the geometry as invariable. In this work, a meta-model based approach on component level is proposed, that provides a rapid estimation of the formability for variable geometries based on pre-sampled, physics-based draping data. Initially, a geometry recognition algorithm scans the geometry and extracts a set of doubly-curved regions with relevant geometry parameters. If the relevant parameter space is not part of an underlying data base, additional samples via Finite-Element draping simulations are drawn according to a suitable design-table for computer experiments. Time saving parallel runs of the physical simulations accelerate the data acquisition. Ultimately, a Gaussian Regression meta-model is built from the data base. The method is demonstrated on a box-shaped generic structure. The predicted results are in good agreement with physics-based draping simulations. Since evaluations of the established meta-model are numerically inexpensive, any further design exploration (e.g. robustness analysis or design optimisation) can be performed in short time. It is expected that the proposed method also offers great potential for future applications along virtual process chains: For each process step along the chain, a meta-model can be set-up to predict the impact of design variations on manufacturability and part performance. Thus, the method is considered to facilitate a lean and economic part and process design under consideration of manufacturing effects.

Tracing the source of numerical climate model uncertainties in precipitation simulations using a feature-oriented statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Jones, A. D.; Rhoades, A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation is a key component in hydrologic cycles, and changing precipitation regimes contribute to more intense and frequent drought and flood events around the world. Numerical climate modeling is a powerful tool to study climatology and to predict future changes. Despite the continuous improvement in numerical models, long-term precipitation prediction remains a challenge especially at regional scales. To improve numerical simulations of precipitation, it is important to find out where the uncertainty in precipitation simulations comes from. There are two types of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. One is related to uncertainty in the input data, such as model's boundary and initial conditions. These uncertainties would propagate to the final model outcomes even if the numerical model has exactly replicated the true world. But a numerical model cannot exactly replicate the true world. Therefore, the other type of model uncertainty is related the errors in the model physics, such as the parameterization of sub-grid scale processes, i.e., given precise input conditions, how much error could be generated by the in-precise model. Here, we build two statistical models based on a neural network algorithm to predict long-term variation of precipitation over California: one uses "true world" information derived from observations, and the other uses "modeled world" information using model inputs and outputs from the North America Coordinated Regional Downscaling Project (NA CORDEX). We derive multiple climate feature metrics as the predictors for the statistical model to represent the impact of global climate on local hydrology, and include topography as a predictor to represent the local control. We first compare the predictors between the true world and the modeled world to determine the errors contained in the input data. By perturbing the predictors in the statistical model, we estimate how much uncertainty in the model's final outcomes is accounted for by each predictor. By comparing the statistical model derived from true world information and modeled world information, we assess the errors lying in the physics of the numerical models. This work provides a unique insight to assess the performance of numerical climate models, and can be used to guide improvement of precipitation prediction.

Numerical simulations in the development of propellant management devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaulke, Diana; Winkelmann, Yvonne; Dreyer, Michael

Propellant management devices (PMDs) are used for positioning the propellant at the propel-lant port. It is important to provide propellant without gas bubbles. Gas bubbles can inflict cavitation and may lead to system failures in the worst case. Therefore, the reliable operation of such devices must be guaranteed. Testing these complex systems is a very intricate process. Furthermore, in most cases only tests with downscaled geometries are possible. Numerical sim-ulations are used here as an aid to optimize the tests and to predict certain results. Based on these simulations, parameters can be determined in advance and parts of the equipment can be adjusted in order to minimize the number of experiments. In return, the simulations are validated regarding the test results. Furthermore, if the accuracy of the numerical prediction is verified, then numerical simulations can be used for validating the scaling of the experiments. This presentation demonstrates some selected numerical simulations for the development of PMDs at ZARM.

Developing Predictive Toxicity Signatures Using In Vitro Data from the EPA ToxCast Program

EPA Science Inventory

A major focus in toxicology research is the development of in vitro methods to predict in vivo chemical toxicity. Numerous studies have evaluated the use of targeted biochemical, cell-based and genomic assay approaches. Each of these techniques is potentially helpful, but provide...

Review: Modelling chemical kinetics and convective heating in giant planet entries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynier, Philippe; D'Ammando, Giuliano; Bruno, Domenico

2018-01-01

A review of the existing chemical kinetics models for H2 / He mixtures and related transport and thermodynamic properties is presented as a pre-requisite towards the development of innovative models based on the state-to-state approach. A survey of the available results obtained during the mission preparation and post-flight analyses of the Galileo mission has been undertaken and a computational matrix has been derived. Different chemical kinetics schemes for hydrogen/helium mixtures have been applied to numerical simulations of the selected points along the entry trajectory. First, a reacting scheme, based on literature data, has been set up for computing the flow-field around the probe at high altitude and comparisons with existing numerical predictions are performed. Then, a macroscopic model derived from a state-to-state model has been constructed and incorporated into a CFD code. Comparisons with existing numerical results from the literature have been performed as well as cross-check comparisons between the predictions provided by the different models in order to evaluate the potential of innovative chemical kinetics models based on the state-to-state approach.

Task 7: ADPAC User's Manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, E. J.; Topp, D. A.; Delaney, R. A.

1996-01-01

The overall objective of this study was to develop a 3-D numerical analysis for compressor casing treatment flowfields. The current version of the computer code resulting from this study is referred to as ADPAC (Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis Codes-Version 7). This report is intended to serve as a computer program user's manual for the ADPAC code developed under Tasks 6 and 7 of the NASA Contract. The ADPAC program is based on a flexible multiple- block grid discretization scheme permitting coupled 2-D/3-D mesh block solutions with application to a wide variety of geometries. Aerodynamic calculations are based on a four-stage Runge-Kutta time-marching finite volume solution technique with added numerical dissipation. Steady flow predictions are accelerated by a multigrid procedure. An iterative implicit algorithm is available for rapid time-dependent flow calculations, and an advanced two equation turbulence model is incorporated to predict complex turbulent flows. The consolidated code generated during this study is capable of executing in either a serial or parallel computing mode from a single source code. Numerous examples are given in the form of test cases to demonstrate the utility of this approach for predicting the aerodynamics of modem turbomachinery configurations.

Link prediction based on local community properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xu-Hua; Zhang, Hai-Feng; Ling, Fei; Cheng, Zhi; Weng, Guo-Qing; Huang, Yu-Jiao

2016-09-01

The link prediction algorithm is one of the key technologies to reveal the inherent rule of network evolution. This paper proposes a novel link prediction algorithm based on the properties of the local community, which is composed of the common neighbor nodes of any two nodes in the network and the links between these nodes. By referring to the node degree and the condition of assortativity or disassortativity in a network, we comprehensively consider the effect of the shortest path and edge clustering coefficient within the local community on node similarity. We numerically show the proposed method provide good link prediction results.

A Predictive Model for Medical Events Based on Contextual Embedding of Temporal Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhimu; Huang, Yingxiang; Wang, Shuang; Wang, Fei; Jiang, Xiaoqian

2016-01-01

Background Medical concepts are inherently ambiguous and error-prone due to human fallibility, which makes it hard for them to be fully used by classical machine learning methods (eg, for tasks like early stage disease prediction). Objective Our work was to create a new machine-friendly representation that resembles the semantics of medical concepts. We then developed a sequential predictive model for medical events based on this new representation. Methods We developed novel contextual embedding techniques to combine different medical events (eg, diagnoses, prescriptions, and labs tests). Each medical event is converted into a numerical vector that resembles its “semantics,” via which the similarity between medical events can be easily measured. We developed simple and effective predictive models based on these vectors to predict novel diagnoses. Results We evaluated our sequential prediction model (and standard learning methods) in estimating the risk of potential diseases based on our contextual embedding representation. Our model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.79 on chronic systolic heart failure and an average AUC of 0.67 (over the 80 most common diagnoses) using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset. Conclusions We propose a general early prognosis predictor for 80 different diagnoses. Our method computes numeric representation for each medical event to uncover the potential meaning of those events. Our results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method, which will benefit patients and physicians by offering more accurate diagnosis. PMID:27888170

Numerical Calculation Method for Prediction of Ground-borne Vibration near Subway Tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuno, Kiwamu; Furuta, Masaru; Abe, Kazuhisa

This paper describes the development of prediction method for ground-borne vibration from railway tunnels. Field measurement was carried out both in a subway shield tunnel, in the ground and on the ground surface. The generated vibration in the tunnel was calculated by means of the train/track/tunnel interaction model and was compared with the measurement results. On the other hand, wave propagation in the ground was calculated utilizing the empirical model, which was proposed based on the relationship between frequency and material damping coefficient α in order to predict the attenuation in the ground in consideration of frequency characteristics. Numerical calculation using 2-dimensinal FE analysis was also carried out in this research. The comparison between calculated and measured results shows that the prediction method including the model for train/track/tunnel interaction and that for wave propagation is applicable to the prediction of train-induced vibration propagated from railway tunnel.

Numerical framework for the modeling of electrokinetic flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshpande, Manish; Ghaddar, Chahid; Gilbert, John R.; St. John, Pamela M.; Woudenberg, Timothy M.; Connell, Charles R.; Molho, Joshua; Herr, Amy; Mungal, Godfrey; Kenny, Thomas W.

1998-09-01

This paper presents a numerical framework for design-based analyses of electrokinetic flow in interconnects. Electrokinetic effects, which can be broadly divided into electrophoresis and electroosmosis, are of importance in providing a transport mechanism in microfluidic devices for both pumping and separation. Models for the electrokinetic effects can be derived and coupled to the fluid dynamic equations through appropriate source terms. In the design of practical microdevices, however, accurate coupling of the electrokinetic effects requires the knowledge of several material and physical parameters, such as the diffusivity and the mobility of the solute in the solvent. Additionally wall-based effects such as chemical binding sites might exist that affect the flow patterns. In this paper, we address some of these issues by describing a synergistic numerical/experimental process to extract the parameters required. Experiments were conducted to provide the numerical simulations with a mechanism to extract these parameters based on quantitative comparisons with each other. These parameters were then applied in predicting further experiments to validate the process. As part of this research, we have created NetFlow, a tool for micro-fluid analyses. The tool can be validated and applied in existing technologies by first creating test structures to extract representations of the physical phenomena in the device, and then applying them in the design analyses to predict correct behavior.

Evaluation of the predictive capability of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical models for a heated bentonite/clay system (HE-E) in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory

DOE PAGES

Garitte, B.; Shao, H.; Wang, X. R.; ...

2017-01-09

Process understanding and parameter identification using numerical methods based on experimental findings are a key aspect of the international cooperative project DECOVALEX. Comparing the predictions from numerical models against experimental results increases confidence in the site selection and site evaluation process for a radioactive waste repository in deep geological formations. In the present phase of the project, DECOVALEX-2015, eight research teams have developed and applied models for simulating an in-situ heater experiment HE-E in the Opalinus Clay in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The modelling task was divided into two study stages, related to prediction and interpretation ofmore » the experiment. A blind prediction of the HE-E experiment was performed based on calibrated parameter values for both the Opalinus Clay, that were based on the modelling of another in-situ experiment (HE-D), and modelling of laboratory column experiments on MX80 granular bentonite and a sand/bentonite mixture .. After publication of the experimental data, additional coupling functions were analysed and considered in the different models. Moreover, parameter values were varied to interpret the measured temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure evolution. The analysis of the predictive and interpretative results reveals the current state of understanding and predictability of coupled THM behaviours associated with geologic nuclear waste disposal in clay formations.« less

Evaluation of the predictive capability of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical models for a heated bentonite/clay system (HE-E) in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garitte, B.; Shao, H.; Wang, X. R.

Process understanding and parameter identification using numerical methods based on experimental findings are a key aspect of the international cooperative project DECOVALEX. Comparing the predictions from numerical models against experimental results increases confidence in the site selection and site evaluation process for a radioactive waste repository in deep geological formations. In the present phase of the project, DECOVALEX-2015, eight research teams have developed and applied models for simulating an in-situ heater experiment HE-E in the Opalinus Clay in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The modelling task was divided into two study stages, related to prediction and interpretation ofmore » the experiment. A blind prediction of the HE-E experiment was performed based on calibrated parameter values for both the Opalinus Clay, that were based on the modelling of another in-situ experiment (HE-D), and modelling of laboratory column experiments on MX80 granular bentonite and a sand/bentonite mixture .. After publication of the experimental data, additional coupling functions were analysed and considered in the different models. Moreover, parameter values were varied to interpret the measured temperature, relative humidity and pore pressure evolution. The analysis of the predictive and interpretative results reveals the current state of understanding and predictability of coupled THM behaviours associated with geologic nuclear waste disposal in clay formations.« less

Nearshore Tsunami Inundation Model Validation: Toward Sediment Transport Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Apotsos, Alex; Buckley, Mark; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Jaffe, Bruce; Vatvani, Deepak

2011-01-01

Model predictions from a numerical model, Delft3D, based on the nonlinear shallow water equations are compared with analytical results and laboratory observations from seven tsunami-like benchmark experiments, and with field observations from the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The model accurately predicts the magnitude and timing of the measured water levels and flow velocities, as well as the magnitude of the maximum inundation distance and run-up, for both breaking and non-breaking waves. The shock-capturing numerical scheme employed describes well the total decrease in wave height due to breaking, but does not reproduce the observed shoaling near the break point. The maximum water levels observed onshore near Kuala Meurisi, Sumatra, following the 26 December 2004 tsunami are well predicted given the uncertainty in the model setup. The good agreement between the model predictions and the analytical results and observations demonstrates that the numerical solution and wetting and drying methods employed are appropriate for modeling tsunami inundation for breaking and non-breaking long waves. Extension of the model to include sediment transport may be appropriate for long, non-breaking tsunami waves. Using available sediment transport formulations, the sediment deposit thickness at Kuala Meurisi is predicted generally within a factor of 2.

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

A Free Wake Numerical Simulation for Darrieus Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Performance Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belu, Radian

2010-11-01

In the last four decades, several aerodynamic prediction models have been formulated for the Darrieus wind turbine performances and characteristics. We can identified two families: stream-tube and vortex. The paper presents a simplified numerical techniques for simulating vertical axis wind turbine flow, based on the lifting line theory and a free vortex wake model, including dynamic stall effects for predicting the performances of a 3-D vertical axis wind turbine. A vortex model is used in which the wake is composed of trailing stream-wise and shedding span-wise vortices, whose strengths are equal to the change in the bound vortex strength as required by the Helmholz and Kelvin theorems. Performance parameters are computed by application of the Biot-Savart law along with the Kutta-Jukowski theorem and a semi-empirical stall model. We tested the developed model with an adaptation of the earlier multiple stream-tube performance prediction model for the Darrieus turbines. Predictions by using our method are shown to compare favorably with existing experimental data and the outputs of other numerical models. The method can predict accurately the local and global performances of a vertical axis wind turbine, and can be used in the design and optimization of wind turbines for built environment applications.

The Numerical Studies Program for the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment (AGCE) for Spacelab Flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlis, W. W. (Editor); Davis, M. H. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The atmospheric general circulation experiment (AGCE) numerical design for Spacelab flights was studied. A spherical baroclinic flow experiment which models the large scale circulations of the Earth's atmosphere was proposed. Gravity is simulated by a radial dielectric body force. The major objective of the AGCE is to study nonlinear baroclinic wave flows in spherical geometry. Numerical models must be developed which accurately predict the basic axisymmetric states and the stability of nonlinear baroclinic wave flows. A three dimensional, fully nonlinear, numerical model and the AGCE based on the complete set of equations is required. Progress in the AGCE numerical design studies program is reported.

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

Simulation of Atmospheric-Entry Capsules in the Subsonic Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, Scott M.; Childs, Robert E.; Garcia, Joseph A.

2015-01-01

The accuracy of Computational Fluid Dynamics predictions of subsonic capsule aerodynamics is examined by comparison against recent NASA wind-tunnel data at high-Reynolds-number flight conditions. Several aspects of numerical and physical modeling are considered, including inviscid numerical scheme, mesh adaptation, rough-wall modeling, rotation and curvature corrections for eddy-viscosity models, and Detached-Eddy Simulations of the unsteady wake. All of these are considered in isolation against relevant data where possible. The results indicate that an improved predictive capability is developed by considering physics-based approaches and validating the results against flight-relevant experimental data.

Estimation of the Aral Sea state predictability based on the open data sources and the unique field observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izhitskiy, Alexander; Ayzel, Georgy; Zavialov, Peter; Kurbaniyazov, Abilgazi

2016-04-01

The Aral Sea, formerly one of the four largest lakes in the world, has lost over 90% of its volume during the dramatical dessication mainly caused by the severe alteration of water budget of the basin. Shrinkage of the Aral Sea resulted in profound changes of the lake's ecosystem, that became a subject for a number of publications based on a wide range of methods such as field observations, remote sensing data analysis and numerical modeling. However, by the early 21th century, the number of field studies decreased significantly due to almost complete cessation of navigation and displacement of the Aral's shoreline far away from roads and other infrastructure. Thus, only a small amount of field data (salinity, temperature, etc.) for different regions of the lake is available for the last two decades. On the other hand, a set of the open data sources (sea level variability, atmospheric reanalysis) were developed for the region. The main idea of the presented study is to estimate the possibility of prediction of the Aral Sea state using coupled system of basic geoanalysis tools, numerical modeling of hydrological cycle (both for sea and land-surface interactions with atmosphere) and state-of-art machine learning techniques. Firstly, available in situ data, obtained in the Aral Sea by Shirshov Institute and other researchers, are concerned as the "base points of state" for each year within the studied period. Secondly, consistent patterns in the interannual variability of all other available parameters, taken from the open data sources and numerical modeling predictions, are founded out. As a result, such an approach allows predicting the future state of sea basing on the possible climatic scenario.

Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2014-01-01

Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

A numerical model simulation of the regional air pollution meteorology of the greater Chesapeake Bay area - Summer day case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segal, M.; Pielke, R. A.; Mcnider, R. T.; Mcdougal, D. S.

1982-01-01

The mesoscale numerical model of the University of Virginia (UVMM), has been applied to the greater Chesapeake Bay area in order to provide a detailed description of the air pollution meteorology during a typical summer day. This model provides state of the art simulations for land-sea thermally induced circulations. The model-predicted results agree favorably with available observed data. The effects of synoptic flow and sea breeze coupling on air pollution meteorological characteristics in this region, are demonstrated by a spatial and temporal presentation of various model predicted fields. A transport analysis based on predicted wind velocities indicated possible recirculation of pollutants back onto the Atlantic coast due to the sea breeze circulation.

Modelling Detailed-Chemistry Effects on Turbulent Diffusion Flames using a Parallel Solution-Adaptive Scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jha, Pradeep Kumar

Capturing the effects of detailed-chemistry on turbulent combustion processes is a central challenge faced by the numerical combustion community. However, the inherent complexity and non-linear nature of both turbulence and chemistry require that combustion models rely heavily on engineering approximations to remain computationally tractable. This thesis proposes a computationally efficient algorithm for modelling detailed-chemistry effects in turbulent diffusion flames and numerically predicting the associated flame properties. The cornerstone of this combustion modelling tool is the use of parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) scheme with the recently proposed Flame Prolongation of Intrinsic low-dimensional manifold (FPI) tabulated-chemistry approach for modelling complex chemistry. The effect of turbulence on the mean chemistry is incorporated using a Presumed Conditional Moment (PCM) approach based on a beta-probability density function (PDF). The two-equation k-w turbulence model is used for modelling the effects of the unresolved turbulence on the mean flow field. The finite-rate of methane-air combustion is represented here by using the GRI-Mech 3.0 scheme. This detailed mechanism is used to build the FPI tables. A state of the art numerical scheme based on a parallel block-based solution-adaptive algorithm has been developed to solve the Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes (FANS) and other governing partial-differential equations using a second-order accurate, fully-coupled finite-volume formulation on body-fitted, multi-block, quadrilateral/hexahedral mesh for two-dimensional and three-dimensional flow geometries, respectively. A standard fourth-order Runge-Kutta time-marching scheme is used for time-accurate temporal discretizations. Numerical predictions of three different diffusion flames configurations are considered in the present work: a laminar counter-flow flame; a laminar co-flow diffusion flame; and a Sydney bluff-body turbulent reacting flow. Comparisons are made between the predicted results of the present FPI scheme and Steady Laminar Flamelet Model (SLFM) approach for diffusion flames. The effects of grid resolution on the predicted overall flame solutions are also assessed. Other non-reacting flows have also been considered to further validate other aspects of the numerical scheme. The present schemes predict results which are in good agreement with published experimental results and reduces the computational cost involved in modelling turbulent diffusion flames significantly, both in terms of storage and processing time.

Numerical simulation and validation of helicopter blade-vortex interaction using coupled CFD/CSD and three levels of aerodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiraux, Mathieu

Rotorcraft Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) remains one of the most challenging flow phenomenon to simulate numerically. Over the past decade, the HART-II rotor test and its extensive experimental dataset has been a major database for validation of CFD codes. Its strong BVI signature, with high levels of intrusive noise and vibrations, makes it a difficult test for computational methods. The main challenge is to accurately capture and preserve the vortices which interact with the rotor, while predicting correct blade deformations and loading. This doctoral dissertation presents the application of a coupled CFD/CSD methodology to the problem of helicopter BVI and compares three levels of fidelity for aerodynamic modeling: a hybrid lifting-line/free-wake (wake coupling) method, with modified compressible unsteady model; a hybrid URANS/free-wake method; and a URANS-based wake capturing method, using multiple overset meshes to capture the entire flow field. To further increase numerical correlation, three helicopter fuselage models are implemented in the framework. The first is a high resolution 3D GPU panel code; the second is an immersed boundary based method, with 3D elliptic grid adaption; the last one uses a body-fitted, curvilinear fuselage mesh. The main contribution of this work is the implementation and systematic comparison of multiple numerical methods to perform BVI modeling. The trade-offs between solution accuracy and computational cost are highlighted for the different approaches. Various improvements have been made to each code to enhance physical fidelity, while advanced technologies, such as GPU computing, have been employed to increase efficiency. The resulting numerical setup covers all aspects of the simulation creating a truly multi-fidelity and multi-physics framework. Overall, the wake capturing approach showed the best BVI phasing correlation and good blade deflection predictions, with slightly under-predicted aerodynamic loading magnitudes. However, it proved to be much more expensive than the other two methods. Wake coupling with RANS solver had very good loading magnitude predictions, and therefore good acoustic intensities, with acceptable computational cost. The lifting-line based technique often had over-predicted aerodynamic levels, due to the degree of empiricism of the model, but its very short run-times, thanks to GPU technology, makes it a very attractive approach.

A novel method to predict current voltage characteristics of positive corona discharges based on a perturbation technique. I. Local analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibata, Hisaichi; Takaki, Ryoji

2017-11-01

A novel method to compute current-voltage characteristics (CVCs) of direct current positive corona discharges is formulated based on a perturbation technique. We use linearized fluid equations coupled with the linearized Poisson's equation. Townsend relation is assumed to predict CVCs apart from the linearization point. We choose coaxial cylinders as a test problem, and we have successfully predicted parameters which can determine CVCs with arbitrary inner and outer radii. It is also confirmed that the proposed method essentially does not induce numerical instabilities.

MECHANISTIC-BASED DISINFECTION AND DISINFECTION BYPRODUCT MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

We propose developing a mechanistic-based numerical model for chlorine decay and regulated DBP (THM and HAA) formation derived from (free) chlorination; the model framework will allow future modifications for other DBPs and chloramination. Predicted chlorine residual and DBP r...

Quasi-static image-based immersed boundary-finite element model of left ventricle under diastolic loading

PubMed Central

Gao, Hao; Wang, Huiming; Berry, Colin; Luo, Xiaoyu; Griffith, Boyce E

2014-01-01

Finite stress and strain analyses of the heart provide insight into the biomechanics of myocardial function and dysfunction. Herein, we describe progress toward dynamic patient-specific models of the left ventricle using an immersed boundary (IB) method with a finite element (FE) structural mechanics model. We use a structure-based hyperelastic strain-energy function to describe the passive mechanics of the ventricular myocardium, a realistic anatomical geometry reconstructed from clinical magnetic resonance images of a healthy human heart, and a rule-based fiber architecture. Numerical predictions of this IB/FE model are compared with results obtained by a commercial FE solver. We demonstrate that the IB/FE model yields results that are in good agreement with those of the conventional FE model under diastolic loading conditions, and the predictions of the LV model using either numerical method are shown to be consistent with previous computational and experimental data. These results are among the first to analyze the stress and strain predictions of IB models of ventricular mechanics, and they serve both to verify the IB/FE simulation framework and to validate the IB/FE model. Moreover, this work represents an important step toward using such models for fully dynamic fluid–structure interaction simulations of the heart. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:24799090

Cognitive Predictors of Achievement Growth in Mathematics: A Five Year Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Geary, David C.

2011-01-01

The study's goal was to identify the beginning of first grade quantitative competencies that predict mathematics achievement start point and growth through fifth grade. Measures of number, counting, and arithmetic competencies were administered in early first grade and used to predict mathematics achievement through fifth (n = 177), while controlling for intelligence, working memory, and processing speed. Multilevel models revealed intelligence, processing speed, and the central executive component of working memory predicted achievement or achievement growth in mathematics and, as a contrast domain, word reading. The phonological loop was uniquely predictive of word reading and the visuospatial sketch pad of mathematics. Early fluency in processing and manipulating numerical set size and Arabic numerals, accurate use of sophisticated counting procedures for solving addition problems, and accuracy in making placements on a mathematical number line were uniquely predictive of mathematics achievement. Use of memory-based processes to solve addition problems predicted mathematics and reading achievement but in different ways. The results identify the early quantitative competencies that uniquely contribute to mathematics learning. PMID:21942667

Potential impact of remote sensing data on sea-state analysis and prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cardone, V. J.

1983-01-01

The severe North Atlantic storm which damaged the ocean liner Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) was studied to assess the impact of remotely sensed marine surface wind data obtained by SEASAT-A, on sea state specifications and forecasts. Alternate representations of the surface wind field in the QE2 storm were produced from the SEASAT enhanced data base, and from operational analyses based upon conventional data. The wind fields were used to drive a high resolution spectral ocean surface wave prediction model. Results show that sea state analyses would have been vastly improved during the period of storm formation and explosive development had remote sensing wind data been available in real time. A modest improvement in operational 12 to 24 hour wave forecasts would have followed automatically from the improved initial state specification made possible by the remote sensing data in both numerical and sea state prediction models. Significantly improved 24 to 48 hour wave forecasts require in addition to remote sensing data, refinement in the numerical and physical aspects of weather prediction models.

EEG-Based Prediction of Cognitive Workload Induced by Arithmetic: A Step towards Online Adaptation in Numerical Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spüler, Martin; Walter, Carina; Rosenstiel, Wolfgang; Gerjets, Peter; Moeller, Korbinian; Klein, Elise

2016-01-01

Numeracy is a key competency for living in our modern knowledge society. Therefore, it is essential to support numerical learning from basic to more advanced competency levels. From educational psychology it is known that learning is most effective when the respective content is neither too easy nor too demanding in relation to learners'…

Chaotic advection at large Péclet number: Electromagnetically driven experiments, numerical simulations, and theoretical predictions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Figueroa, Aldo; Meunier, Patrice; Villermaux, Emmanuel

2014-01-15

We present a combination of experiment, theory, and modelling on laminar mixing at large Péclet number. The flow is produced by oscillating electromagnetic forces in a thin electrolytic fluid layer, leading to oscillating dipoles, quadrupoles, octopoles, and disordered flows. The numerical simulations are based on the Diffusive Strip Method (DSM) which was recently introduced (P. Meunier and E. Villermaux, “The diffusive strip method for scalar mixing in two-dimensions,” J. Fluid Mech. 662, 134–172 (2010)) to solve the advection-diffusion problem by combining Lagrangian techniques and theoretical modelling of the diffusion. Numerical simulations obtained with the DSM are in reasonable agreement withmore » quantitative dye visualization experiments of the scalar fields. A theoretical model based on log-normal Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of stretching factors, characteristic of homogeneous turbulence in the Batchelor regime, allows to predict the PDFs of scalar in agreement with numerical and experimental results. This model also indicates that the PDFs of scalar are asymptotically close to log-normal at late stages, except for the large concentration levels which correspond to low stretching factors.« less

A comparative analysis of numerical approaches to the mechanics of elastic sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Michael; Davidovitch, Benny; Qiu, Zhanlong; Bertoldi, Katia

2015-06-01

Numerically simulating deformations in thin elastic sheets is a challenging problem in computational mechanics due to destabilizing compressive stresses that result in wrinkling. Determining the location, structure, and evolution of wrinkles in these problems has important implications in design and is an area of increasing interest in the fields of physics and engineering. In this work, several numerical approaches previously proposed to model equilibrium deformations in thin elastic sheets are compared. These include standard finite element-based static post-buckling approaches as well as a recently proposed method based on dynamic relaxation, which are applied to the problem of an annular sheet with opposed tractions where wrinkling is a key feature. Numerical solutions are compared to analytic predictions of the ground state, enabling a quantitative evaluation of the predictive power of the various methods. Results indicate that static finite element approaches produce local minima that are highly sensitive to initial imperfections, relying on a priori knowledge of the equilibrium wrinkling pattern to generate optimal results. In contrast, dynamic relaxation is much less sensitive to initial imperfections and can generate low-energy solutions for a wide variety of loading conditions without requiring knowledge of the equilibrium solution beforehand.

Model predictive control design for polytopic uncertain systems by synthesising multi-step prediction scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Xi, Yugeng; Li, Dewei; Xu, Yuli; Gan, Zhongxue

2018-01-01

A common objective of model predictive control (MPC) design is the large initial feasible region, low online computational burden as well as satisfactory control performance of the resulting algorithm. It is well known that interpolation-based MPC can achieve a favourable trade-off among these different aspects. However, the existing results are usually based on fixed prediction scenarios, which inevitably limits the performance of the obtained algorithms. So by replacing the fixed prediction scenarios with the time-varying multi-step prediction scenarios, this paper provides a new insight into improvement of the existing MPC designs. The adopted control law is a combination of predetermined multi-step feedback control laws, based on which two MPC algorithms with guaranteed recursive feasibility and asymptotic stability are presented. The efficacy of the proposed algorithms is illustrated by a numerical example.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

In Vivo Validation of Numerical Prediction for Turbulence Intensity in an Aortic Coarctation

PubMed Central

Arzani, Amirhossein; Dyverfeldt, Petter; Ebbers, Tino; Shadden, Shawn C.

2013-01-01

This paper compares numerical predictions of turbulence intensity with in vivo measurement. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was carried out on a 60-year-old female with a restenosed aortic coarctation. Time-resolved three-directional phase-contrast (PC) MRI data was acquired to enable turbulence intensity estimation. A contrast-enhanced MR angiography (MRA) and a time-resolved 2D PCMRI measurement were also performed to acquire data needed to perform subsequent image-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. A 3D model of the aortic coarctation and surrounding vasculature was constructed from the MRA data, and physiologic boundary conditions were modeled to match 2D PCMRI and pressure pulse measurements. Blood flow velocity data was subsequently obtained by numerical simulation. Turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) was computed from the resulting CFD data. Results indicate relative agreement (error ≈10%) between the in vivo measurements and the CFD predictions of TKE. The discrepancies in modeled vs. measured TKE values were within expectations due to modeling and measurement errors. PMID:22016327

Assessing the accuracy of predictive models for numerical data: Not r nor r2, why not? Then what?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Assessing the accuracy of predictive models is critical because predictive models have been increasingly used across various disciplines and predictive accuracy determines the quality of resultant predictions. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (r) and the coefficient of determination (r2) are among the most widely used measures for assessing predictive models for numerical data, although they are argued to be biased, insufficient and misleading. In this study, geometrical graphs were used to illustrate what were used in the calculation of r and r2 and simulations were used to demonstrate the behaviour of r and r2 and to compare three accuracy measures under various scenarios. Relevant confusions about r and r2, has been clarified. The calculation of r and r2 is not based on the differences between the predicted and observed values. The existing error measures suffer various limitations and are unable to tell the accuracy. Variance explained by predictive models based on cross-validation (VEcv) is free of these limitations and is a reliable accuracy measure. Legates and McCabe’s efficiency (E1) is also an alternative accuracy measure. The r and r2 do not measure the accuracy and are incorrect accuracy measures. The existing error measures suffer limitations. VEcv and E1 are recommended for assessing the accuracy. The applications of these accuracy measures would encourage accuracy-improved predictive models to be developed to generate predictions for evidence-informed decision-making. PMID:28837692

Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models to Predict Runoff Water Quantity and Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradford, S. A.; Liang, J.; Li, W.; Murata, T.; Simunek, J.

2017-12-01

Contaminants can be rapidly transported at the soil surface by runoff to surface water bodies. Physically-based models, which are based on the mathematical description of main hydrological processes, are key tools for predicting surface water impairment. Along with physically-based models, data-driven models are becoming increasingly popular for describing the behavior of hydrological and water resources systems since these models can be used to complement or even replace physically based-models. In this presentation we propose a new data-driven model as an alternative to a physically-based overland flow and transport model. First, we have developed a physically-based numerical model to simulate overland flow and contaminant transport (the HYDRUS-1D overland flow module). A large number of numerical simulations were carried out to develop a database containing information about the impact of various input parameters (weather patterns, surface topography, vegetation, soil conditions, contaminants, and best management practices) on runoff water quantity and quality outputs. This database was used to train data-driven models. Three different methods (Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Recurrence Neural Networks) were explored to prepare input- output functional relations. Results demonstrate the ability and limitations of machine learning and deep learning models to predict runoff water quantity and quality.

Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.

2010-10-01

Despite the widespread use of conceptual hydrological models in environmental research and operations, they remain frequently implemented using numerically unreliable methods. This paper considers the impact of the time stepping scheme on model analysis (sensitivity analysis, parameter optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo-based uncertainty estimation) and prediction. It builds on the companion paper (Clark and Kavetski, 2010), which focused on numerical accuracy, fidelity, and computational efficiency. Empirical and theoretical analysis of eight distinct time stepping schemes for six different hydrological models in 13 diverse basins demonstrates several critical conclusions. (1) Unreliable time stepping schemes, in particular, fixed-step explicit methods, suffer from troublesome numerical artifacts that severely deform the objective function of the model. These deformations are not rare isolated instances but can arise in any model structure, in any catchment, and under common hydroclimatic conditions. (2) Sensitivity analysis can be severely contaminated by numerical errors, often to the extent that it becomes dominated by the sensitivity of truncation errors rather than the model equations. (3) Robust time stepping schemes generally produce "better behaved" objective functions, free of spurious local optima, and with sufficient numerical continuity to permit parameter optimization using efficient quasi Newton methods. When implemented within a multistart framework, modern Newton-type optimizers are robust even when started far from the optima and provide valuable diagnostic insights not directly available from evolutionary global optimizers. (4) Unreliable time stepping schemes lead to inconsistent and biased inferences of the model parameters and internal states. (5) Even when interactions between hydrological parameters and numerical errors provide "the right result for the wrong reason" and the calibrated model performance appears adequate, unreliable time stepping schemes make the model unnecessarily fragile in predictive mode, undermining validation assessments and operational use. Erroneous or misleading conclusions of model analysis and prediction arising from numerical artifacts in hydrological models are intolerable, especially given that robust numerics are accepted as mainstream in other areas of science and engineering. We hope that the vivid empirical findings will encourage the conceptual hydrological community to close its Pandora's box of numerical problems, paving the way for more meaningful model application and interpretation.

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zell, Wesley O.; Culver, Teresa B.; Sanford, Ward E.

2018-06-01

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF6, CFCs, and 3H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Explicit simulation of ice particle habits in a Numerical Weather Prediction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashino, Tempei

2007-05-01

This study developed a scheme for explicit simulation of ice particle habits in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models. The scheme is called Spectral Ice Habit Prediction System (SHIPS), and the goal is to retain growth history of ice particles in the Eulerian dynamics framework. It diagnoses characteristics of ice particles based on a series of particle property variables (PPVs) that reflect history of microphysieal processes and the transport between mass bins and air parcels in space. Therefore, categorization of ice particles typically used in bulk microphysical parameterization and traditional bin models is not necessary, so that errors that stem from the categorization can be avoided. SHIPS predicts polycrystals as well as hexagonal monocrystals based on empirically derived habit frequency and growth rate, and simulates the habit-dependent aggregation and riming processes by use of the stochastic collection equation with predicted PPVs. Idealized two dimensional simulations were performed with SHIPS in a NWP model. The predicted spatial distribution of ice particle habits and types, and evolution of particle size distributions showed good quantitative agreement with observation This comprehensive model of ice particle properties, distributions, and evolution in clouds can be used to better understand problems facing wide range of research disciplines, including microphysics processes, radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere, data assimilation, and weather modification.

Real time wave forecasting using wind time history and numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Pooja; Deo, M. C.; Latha, G.; Rajendran, V.

Operational activities in the ocean like planning for structural repairs or fishing expeditions require real time prediction of waves over typical time duration of say a few hours. Such predictions can be made by using a numerical model or a time series model employing continuously recorded waves. This paper presents another option to do so and it is based on a different time series approach in which the input is in the form of preceding wind speed and wind direction observations. This would be useful for those stations where the costly wave buoys are not deployed and instead only meteorological buoys measuring wind are moored. The technique employs alternative artificial intelligence approaches of an artificial neural network (ANN), genetic programming (GP) and model tree (MT) to carry out the time series modeling of wind to obtain waves. Wind observations at four offshore sites along the east coast of India were used. For calibration purpose the wave data was generated using a numerical model. The predicted waves obtained using the proposed time series models when compared with the numerically generated waves showed good resemblance in terms of the selected error criteria. Large differences across the chosen techniques of ANN, GP, MT were not noticed. Wave hindcasting at the same time step and the predictions over shorter lead times were better than the predictions over longer lead times. The proposed method is a cost effective and convenient option when a site-specific information is desired.

Grain growth prediction based on data assimilation by implementing 4DVar on multi-phase-field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Shin-ichi; Nagao, Hiromichi; Kasuya, Tadashi; Inoue, Junya

2017-12-01

We propose a method to predict grain growth based on data assimilation by using a four-dimensional variational method (4DVar). When implemented on a multi-phase-field model, the proposed method allows us to calculate the predicted grain structures and uncertainties in them that depend on the quality and quantity of the observational data. We confirm through numerical tests involving synthetic data that the proposed method correctly reproduces the true phase-field assumed in advance. Furthermore, it successfully quantifies uncertainties in the predicted grain structures, where such uncertainty quantifications provide valuable information to optimize the experimental design.

Source Term Model for Vortex Generator Vanes in a Navier-Stokes Computer Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waithe, Kenrick A.

2004-01-01

A source term model for an array of vortex generators was implemented into a non-proprietary Navier-Stokes computer code, OVERFLOW. The source term models the side force created by a vortex generator vane. The model is obtained by introducing a side force to the momentum and energy equations that can adjust its strength automatically based on the local flow. The model was tested and calibrated by comparing data from numerical simulations and experiments of a single low profile vortex generator vane on a flat plate. In addition, the model was compared to experimental data of an S-duct with 22 co-rotating, low profile vortex generators. The source term model allowed a grid reduction of about seventy percent when compared with the numerical simulations performed on a fully gridded vortex generator on a flat plate without adversely affecting the development and capture of the vortex created. The source term model was able to predict the shape and size of the stream-wise vorticity and velocity contours very well when compared with both numerical simulations and experimental data. The peak vorticity and its location were also predicted very well when compared to numerical simulations and experimental data. The circulation predicted by the source term model matches the prediction of the numerical simulation. The source term model predicted the engine fan face distortion and total pressure recovery of the S-duct with 22 co-rotating vortex generators very well. The source term model allows a researcher to quickly investigate different locations of individual or a row of vortex generators. The researcher is able to conduct a preliminary investigation with minimal grid generation and computational time.

On the accuracy of ERS-1 orbit predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Rolf; Li, H.; Massmann, Franz-Heinrich; Raimondo, J. C.; Rajasenan, C.; Reigber, C.

1993-01-01

Since the launch of ERS-1, the D-PAF (German Processing and Archiving Facility) provides regularly orbit predictions for the worldwide SLR (Satellite Laser Ranging) tracking network. The weekly distributed orbital elements are so called tuned IRV's and tuned SAO-elements. The tuning procedure, designed to improve the accuracy of the recovery of the orbit at the stations, is discussed based on numerical results. This shows that tuning of elements is essential for ERS-1 with the currently applied tracking procedures. The orbital elements are updated by daily distributed time bias functions. The generation of the time bias function is explained. Problems and numerical results are presented. The time bias function increases the prediction accuracy considerably. Finally, the quality assessment of ERS-1 orbit predictions is described. The accuracy is compiled for about 250 days since launch. The average accuracy lies in the range of 50-100 ms and has considerably improved.

Multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification in large-scale predictive simulations of turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geraci, Gianluca; Jofre-Cruanyes, Lluis; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2017-11-01

The performance characterization of complex engineering systems often relies on accurate, but computationally intensive numerical simulations. It is also well recognized that in order to obtain a reliable numerical prediction the propagation of uncertainties needs to be included. Therefore, Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a fundamental role in building confidence in predictive science. Despite the great improvement in recent years, even the more advanced UQ algorithms are still limited to fairly simplified applications and only moderate parameter dimensionality. Moreover, in the case of extremely large dimensionality, sampling methods, i.e. Monte Carlo (MC) based approaches, appear to be the only viable alternative. In this talk we describe and compare a family of approaches which aim to accelerate the convergence of standard MC simulations. These methods are based on hierarchies of generalized numerical resolutions (multi-level) or model fidelities (multi-fidelity), and attempt to leverage the correlation between Low- and High-Fidelity (HF) models to obtain a more accurate statistical estimator without introducing additional HF realizations. The performance of these methods are assessed on an irradiated particle laden turbulent flow (PSAAP II solar energy receiver). This investigation was funded by the United States Department of Energy's (DoE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) under the Predicitive Science Academic Alliance Program (PSAAP) II at Stanford University.

Numerical simulation of the actuation system for the ALDF's propulsion control valve. [Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Korte, John J.

1990-01-01

A numerical simulation of the actuation system for the propulsion control valve (PCV) of the NASA Langley Aircraft Landing Dynamics Facility was developed during the preliminary design of the PCV and used throughout the entire project. The simulation is based on a predictive model of the PCV which is used to evaluate and design the actuation system. The PCV controls a 1.7 million-pound thrust water jet used in propelling a 108,000-pound test carriage. The PCV can open and close in 0.300 second and deliver over 9,000 gallons of water per sec at pressures up to 3150 psi. The numerical simulation results are used to predict transient performance and valve opening characteristics, specify the hydraulic control system, define transient loadings on components, and evaluate failure modes. The mathematical model used for numerically simulating the mechanical fluid power system is described, and numerical results are demonstrated for a typical opening and closing cycle of the PCV. A summary is then given on how the model is used in the design process.

Numerical sensitivity analysis of welding-induced residual stress depending on variations in continuous cooling transformation behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinze, C.; Schwenk, C.; Rethmeier, M.; Caron, J.

2011-06-01

The usage of continuous cooling transformation (CCT) diagrams in numerical welding simulations is state of the art. Nevertheless, specifications provide limits in chemical composition of materials which result in different CCT behavior and CCT diagrams, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the influence of variations in CCT diagrams on the developing residual stresses. In the present paper, four CCT diagrams and their effect on numerical calculation of residual stresses are investigated for the widely used structural steel S355J2 + N welded by the gas metal arc welding (GMAW) process. Rather than performing an arbitrary adjustment of CCT behavior, four justifiable data sets were used as input to the numerical calculation: data available in the Sysweld database, experimental data acquired through Gleeble dilatometry tests, and TTT/CCT predictions calculated from the JMatPro and Edison Welding Institute (EWI) Virtual Joining Portal software. The performed numerical analyses resulted in noticeable deviations in residual stresses considering the different CCT diagrams. Furthermore, possibilities to improve the prediction of distortions and residual stress based on CCT behavior are discussed.

A New Numerical Simulation technology of Multistage Fracturing in Horizontal Well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Ning; Kang, Kaifeng; Li, Jianming; Liu, Tao; Ding, Kun

2017-11-01

Horizontal multi-stage fracturing is recognized the effective development technology of unconventional oil resources. Geological mechanics in the numerical simulation of hydraulic fracturing technology occupies very important position, compared with the conventional numerical simulation technology, because of considering the influence of geological mechanics. New numerical simulation of hydraulic fracturing can more effectively optimize the design of fracturing and evaluate the production after fracturing. This paper studies is based on the three-dimensional stress and rock physics parameters model, using the latest fluid-solid coupling numerical simulation technology to engrave the extension process of fracture and describes the change of stress field in fracturing process, finally predict the production situation.

Estimation of water table level and nitrate pollution based on geostatistical and multiple mass transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matiatos, Ioannis; Varouhakis, Emmanouil A.; Papadopoulou, Maria P.

2015-04-01

As the sustainable use of groundwater resources is a great challenge for many countries in the world, groundwater modeling has become a very useful and well established tool for studying groundwater management problems. Based on various methods used to numerically solve algebraic equations representing groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport, numerical models are mainly divided into Finite Difference-based and Finite Element-based models. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of a finite difference-based (MODFLOW-MT3DMS), a finite element-based (FEFLOW) and a hybrid finite element and finite difference (Princeton Transport Code-PTC) groundwater numerical models simulating groundwater flow and nitrate mass transport in the alluvial aquifer of Trizina region in NE Peloponnese, Greece. The calibration of groundwater flow in all models was performed using groundwater hydraulic head data from seven stress periods and the validation was based on a series of hydraulic head data for two stress periods in sufficient numbers of observation locations. The same periods were used for the calibration of nitrate mass transport. The calibration and validation of the three models revealed that the simulated values of hydraulic heads and nitrate mass concentrations coincide well with the observed ones. The models' performance was assessed by performing a statistical analysis of these different types of numerical algorithms. A number of metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) and Reliability Index (RI) were used allowing the direct comparison of models' performance. Spatiotemporal Kriging (STRK) was also applied using separable and non-separable spatiotemporal variograms to predict water table level and nitrate concentration at each sampling station for two selected hydrological stress periods. The predictions were validated using the respective measured values. Maps of water table level and nitrate concentrations were produced and compared with those obtained from groundwater and mass transport numerical models. Preliminary results showed similar efficiency of the spatiotemporal geostatistical method with the numerical models. However data requirements of the former model were significantly less. Advantages and disadvantages of the methods performance were analysed and discussed indicating the characteristics of the different approaches.

Prediction of Time Response of Electrowetting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seung Jun; Hong, Jiwoo; Kang, Kwan Hyoung

2009-11-01

It is very important to predict the time response of electrowetting-based devices, such as liquid lenses, reflective displays, and optical switches. We investigated the time response of electrowetting, based on an analytical and a numerical method, to find out characteristic scales and a scaling law for the switching time. For this, spreading process of a sessile droplet was analyzed based on the domain perturbation method. First, we considered the case of weakly viscous fluids. The analytical result for the spreading process was compared with experimental results, which showed very good agreement in overall time response. It was shown that the overall dynamics is governed by P2 shape mode. We derived characteristic scales combining the droplet volume, density, and surface tension. The overall dynamic process was scaled quite well by the scales. A scaling law was derived from the analytical solution and was verified experimentally. We also suggest a scaling law for highly viscous liquids, based on results of numerical analysis for the electrowetting-actuated spreading process.

Analysis of weld geometry and liquid flow in laser transmission welding between polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and Ti6Al4V based on numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ai, Yuewei; Zheng, Kang; Shin, Yung C.; Wu, Benxin

2018-07-01

The laser transmission welding of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and titanium alloy Ti6Al4V involving the evaluating of the resultant geometry and quality of welds is investigated using a fiber laser in this paper. A 3D transient numerical model considering the melting and fluid flow is developed to predict the weld geometry and porosity formation. The temperature field, molten pool and liquid flow are simulated with varying laser power and welding speed based on the model. It is observed that the weld geometry predictions from the numerical simulation are in good agreement with the experimental data. The results show that the porosity consistently appears in the high temperature region due to the decomposition of PET. In addition, it has also been found that the molten pool with a vortex flow pattern is formed only in the PET layer and the welding processing parameters have significant effects on the fluid flow, which eventually affects the heat transfer, molten pool geometry and weld formation. Consequently, it is shown adopting appropriate welding processing parameters based on the proposed model is essential for the sound weld without defects.

A numerical multi-scale model to predict macroscopic material anisotropy of multi-phase steels from crystal plasticity material definitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravi, Sathish Kumar; Gawad, Jerzy; Seefeldt, Marc; Van Bael, Albert; Roose, Dirk

2017-10-01

A numerical multi-scale model is being developed to predict the anisotropic macroscopic material response of multi-phase steel. The embedded microstructure is given by a meso-scale Representative Volume Element (RVE), which holds the most relevant features like phase distribution, grain orientation, morphology etc., in sufficient detail to describe the multi-phase behavior of the material. A Finite Element (FE) mesh of the RVE is constructed using statistical information from individual phases such as grain size distribution and ODF. The material response of the RVE is obtained for selected loading/deformation modes through numerical FE simulations in Abaqus. For the elasto-plastic response of the individual grains, single crystal plasticity based plastic potential functions are proposed as Abaqus material definitions. The plastic potential functions are derived using the Facet method for individual phases in the microstructure at the level of single grains. The proposed method is a new modeling framework and the results presented in terms of macroscopic flow curves are based on the building blocks of the approach, while the model would eventually facilitate the construction of an anisotropic yield locus of the underlying multi-phase microstructure derived from a crystal plasticity based framework.

Probabilistic Reasoning and Prediction with Young Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinnear, Virginia; Clark, Julie

2014-01-01

This paper reports findings from a classroom based study with 5 year old children in their first term of school. A data modelling activity contextualised by a picture story book was used to present a prediction problem. A data table with numerical data values provided for three consecutive days of rubbish collection was provided, with a fourth day…

Motives Emanating from Personality Associated with Achievement in a Finnish Senior High School: Physical Activity, Curiosity, and Family Motives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froiland, John Mark; Mayor, Päivi; Herlevi, Marjaana

2015-01-01

Numerous studies indicate that intrinsic motivation predicts academic achievement. However, relatively few have examined various subtypes of intrinsic motivation that predict overall achievement, such as motivation for exercise and physical activity. Based upon the 16 basic desires theory of personality, the current study examined the motives of…

Predicting links based on knowledge dissemination in complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wen; Jia, Yifan

2017-04-01

Link prediction is the task of mining the missing links in networks or predicting the next vertex pair to be connected by a link. A lot of link prediction methods were inspired by evolutionary processes of networks. In this paper, a new mechanism for the formation of complex networks called knowledge dissemination (KD) is proposed with the assumption of knowledge disseminating through the paths of a network. Accordingly, a new link prediction method-knowledge dissemination based link prediction (KDLP)-is proposed to test KD. KDLP characterizes vertex similarity based on knowledge quantity (KQ) which measures the importance of a vertex through H-index. Extensive numerical simulations on six real-world networks demonstrate that KDLP is a strong link prediction method which performs at a higher prediction accuracy than four well-known similarity measures including common neighbors, local path index, average commute time and matrix forest index. Furthermore, based on the common conclusion that an excellent link prediction method reveals a good evolving mechanism, the experiment results suggest that KD is a considerable network evolving mechanism for the formation of complex networks.

Asymptotic/numerical analysis of supersonic propeller noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, M. K.; Wydeven, R.

1989-01-01

An asymptotic analysis based on the Mach surface structure of the field of a supersonic helical source distribution is applied to predict thickness and loading noise radiated by high speed propeller blades. The theory utilizes an integral representation of the Ffowcs-Williams Hawkings equation in a fully linearized form. The asymptotic results are used for chordwise strips of the blade, while required spanwise integrations are performed numerically. The form of the analysis enables predicted waveforms to be interpreted in terms of Mach surface propagation. A computer code developed to implement the theory is described and found to yield results in close agreement with more exact computations.

An improved numerical model for wave rotor design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Wilson, Jack

1993-01-01

A numerical model has been developed which can predict both the unsteady flows within a wave rotor and the steady averaged flows in the ports. The model is based on the assumptions of one-dimensional, unsteady, and perfect gas flow. Besides the dominant wave behavior, it is also capable of predicting the effects of finite tube opening time, leakage from the tube ends, and viscosity. The relative simplicity of the model makes it useful for design, optimization, and analysis of wave rotor cycles for any application. This paper discusses some details of the model and presents comparisons between the model and two laboratory wave rotor experiments.

An improved numerical model for wave rotor design and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paxson, Daniel E.; Wilson, Jack

1992-01-01

A numerical model has been developed which can predict both the unsteady flows within a wave rotor and the steady averaged flows in the ports. The model is based on the assumptions of one-dimensional, unsteady, and perfect gas flow. Besides the dominant wave behavior, it is also capable of predicting the effects of finite tube opening time, leakage from the tube ends, and viscosity. The relative simplicity of the model makes it useful for design, optimization, and analysis of wave rotor cycles for any application. This paper discusses some details of the model and presents comparisons between the model and two laboratory wave rotor experiments.

Fracture behaviors of ceramic tissue scaffolds for load bearing applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Entezari, Ali; Roohani-Esfahani, Seyed-Iman; Zhang, Zhongpu; Zreiqat, Hala; Dunstan, Colin R.; Li, Qing

2016-07-01

Healing large bone defects, especially in weight-bearing locations, remains a challenge using available synthetic ceramic scaffolds. Manufactured as a scaffold using 3D printing technology, Sr-HT-Gahnite at high porosity (66%) had demonstrated significantly improved compressive strength (53 ± 9 MPa) and toughness. Nevertheless, the main concern of ceramic scaffolds in general remains to be their inherent brittleness and low fracture strength in load bearing applications. Therefore, it is crucial to establish a robust numerical framework for predicting fracture strengths of such scaffolds. Since crack initiation and propagation plays a critical role on the fracture strength of ceramic structures, we employed extended finite element method (XFEM) to predict fracture behaviors of Sr-HT-Gahnite scaffolds. The correlation between experimental and numerical results proved the superiority of XFEM for quantifying fracture strength of scaffolds over conventional FEM. In addition to computer aided design (CAD) based modeling analyses, XFEM was conducted on micro-computed tomography (μCT) based models for fabricated scaffolds, which took into account the geometric variations induced by the fabrication process. Fracture strengths and crack paths predicted by the μCT-based XFEM analyses correlated well with relevant experimental results. The study provided an effective means for the prediction of fracture strength of porous ceramic structures, thereby facilitating design optimization of scaffolds.

Broken Ergodicity in Ideal, Homogeneous, Incompressible Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morin, Lee; Shebalin, John; Fu, Terry; Nguyen, Phu; Shum, Victor

2010-01-01

We discuss the statistical mechanics of numerical models of ideal homogeneous, incompressible turbulence and their relevance for dissipative fluids and magnetofluids. These numerical models are based on Fourier series and the relevant statistical theory predicts that Fourier coefficients of fluid velocity and magnetic fields (if present) are zero-mean random variables. However, numerical simulations clearly show that certain coefficients have a non-zero mean value that can be very large compared to the associated standard deviation. We explain this phenomena in terms of broken ergodicity', which is defined to occur when dynamical behavior does not match ensemble predictions on very long time-scales. We review the theoretical basis of broken ergodicity, apply it to 2-D and 3-D fluid and magnetohydrodynamic simulations of homogeneous turbulence, and show new results from simulations using GPU (graphical processing unit) computers.

A numerical simulation strategy on occupant evacuation behaviors and casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai

2018-01-01

Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.

Prediction of Central Burst Defects in Copper Wire Drawing Process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vega, G.; NEXANS France, NMC Nexans Metallurgy Centre, Boulevard du Marais, BP39, F-62301 Lens; Haddi, A.

2011-01-17

In this study, the prediction of chevron cracks (central bursts) in copper wire drawing process is investigated using experimental and numerical approaches. The conditions of the chevron cracks creation along the wire axis depend on (i) the die angle, the friction coefficient between the die and the wire, (ii) the reduction in crosssectional area of the wire, (iii) the material properties and (iv) the drawing velocity or strain rate. Under various drawing conditions, a numerical simulation for the prediction of central burst defects is presented using an axisymmetric finite element model. This model is based on the application of themore » Cockcroft and Latham fracture criterion. This criterion was used as the damage value to estimate if and where defects will occur during the copper wire drawing. The critical damage value of the material is obtained from a uniaxial tensile test. The results show that the die angle and the reduction ratio have a significant effect on the stress distribution and the maximum damage value. The central bursts are expected to occur when the die angle and reduction ratio reach a critical value. Numerical predictions are compared with experimental observations.« less

Debris flow runup on vertical barriers and adverse slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.; George, David L.; Logan, Matthew

2016-01-01

Runup of debris flows against obstacles in their paths is a complex process that involves profound flow deceleration and redirection. We investigate the dynamics and predictability of runup by comparing results from large-scale laboratory experiments, four simple analytical models, and a depth-integrated numerical model (D-Claw). The experiments and numerical simulations reveal the important influence of unsteady, multidimensional flow on runup, and the analytical models highlight key aspects of the underlying physics. Runup against a vertical barrier normal to the flow path is dominated by rapid development of a shock, or jump in flow height, associated with abrupt deceleration of the flow front. By contrast, runup on sloping obstacles is initially dominated by a smooth flux of mass and momentum from the flow body to the flow front, which precedes shock development and commonly increases the runup height. D-Claw simulations that account for the emergence of shocks show that predicted runup heights vary systematically with the adverse slope angle and also with the Froude number and degree of liquefaction (or effective basal friction) of incoming flows. They additionally clarify the strengths and limitations of simplified analytical models. Numerical simulations based on a priori knowledge of the evolving dynamics of incoming flows yield quite accurate runup predictions. Less predictive accuracy is attained in ab initio simulations that compute runup based solely on knowledge of static debris properties in a distant debris flow source area. Nevertheless, the paucity of inputs required in ab initio simulations enhances their prospective value in runup forecasting.

A conservative fully implicit algorithm for predicting slug flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krasnopolsky, Boris I.; Lukyanov, Alexander A.

2018-02-01

An accurate and predictive modelling of slug flows is required by many industries (e.g., oil and gas, nuclear engineering, chemical engineering) to prevent undesired events potentially leading to serious environmental accidents. For example, the hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slugging leads to unwanted unsteady flow conditions. This demands the development of fast and robust numerical techniques for predicting slug flows. The presented in this paper study proposes a multi-fluid model and its implementation method accounting for phase appearance and disappearance. The numerical modelling of phase appearance and disappearance presents a complex numerical challenge for all multi-component and multi-fluid models. Numerical challenges arise from the singular systems of equations when some phases are absent and from the solution discontinuity when some phases appear or disappear. This paper provides a flexible and robust solution to these issues. A fully implicit formulation described in this work enables to efficiently solve governing fluid flow equations. The proposed numerical method provides a modelling capability of phase appearance and disappearance processes, which is based on switching procedure between various sets of governing equations. These sets of equations are constructed using information about the number of phases present in the computational domain. The proposed scheme does not require an explicit truncation of solutions leading to a conservative scheme for mass and linear momentum. A transient two-fluid model is used to verify and validate the proposed algorithm for conditions of hydrodynamic and terrain-induced slug flow regimes. The developed modelling capabilities allow to predict all the major features of the experimental data, and are in a good quantitative agreement with them.

Predict the fatigue life of crack based on extended finite element method and SVR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Weizhen; Jiang, Zhansi; Jiang, Hui

2018-05-01

Using extended finite element method (XFEM) and support vector regression (SVR) to predict the fatigue life of plate crack. Firstly, the XFEM is employed to calculate the stress intensity factors (SIFs) with given crack sizes. Then predicetion model can be built based on the function relationship of the SIFs with the fatigue life or crack length. Finally, according to the prediction model predict the SIFs at different crack sizes or different cycles. Because of the accuracy of the forward Euler method only ensured by the small step size, a new prediction method is presented to resolve the issue. The numerical examples were studied to demonstrate the proposed method allow a larger step size and have a high accuracy.

Numerical modeling of aquifer thermal energy storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsang, C. F.; Doughty, C.; Kincaid, C. T.

1982-12-01

During 1981 and 1982, Auburn University has been performing a three cycle ATES field experiment in Mobile County, Alabama. Details of the experiment are described elsewhere in this volume. Concurrent with the first two cycles (59 C and 82 C), Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) did numerical simulations based on field operating conditions to predict the outcome of each cycle before its conclusion. Prior to the third cycle, a series of numerical simulations were made to aid in the design of an experiment that would yield the highest recovery factor possible.

Viewing Knowledge Bases as Qualitative Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clancey, William J.

The concept of a qualitative model provides a unifying perspective for understanding how expert systems differ from conventional programs. Knowledge bases contain qualitative models of systems in the world, that is, primarily non-numeric descriptions that provide a basis for explaining and predicting behavior and formulating action plans. The…

Numerical solution for weight reduction model due to health campaigns in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Maha A.; Noor, Noor Fadiya Mohd; Siri, Zailan; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur

2015-10-01

Transition model between three subpopulations based on Body Mass Index of Valencia community in Spain is considered. No changes in population nutritional habits and public health strategies on weight reduction until 2030 are assumed. The system of ordinary differential equations is solved using Runge-Kutta method of higher order. The numerical results obtained are compared with the predicted values of subpopulation proportion based on statistical estimation in 2013, 2015 and 2030. Relative approximate error is calculated. The consistency of the Runge-Kutta method in solving the model is discussed.

Channelized relevance vector machine as a numerical observer for cardiac perfusion defect detection task

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalayeh, Mahdi M.; Marin, Thibault; Pretorius, P. Hendrik; Wernick, Miles N.; Yang, Yongyi; Brankov, Jovan G.

2011-03-01

In this paper, we present a numerical observer for image quality assessment, aiming to predict human observer accuracy in a cardiac perfusion defect detection task for single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). In medical imaging, image quality should be assessed by evaluating the human observer accuracy for a specific diagnostic task. This approach is known as task-based assessment. Such evaluations are important for optimizing and testing imaging devices and algorithms. Unfortunately, human observer studies with expert readers are costly and time-demanding. To address this problem, numerical observers have been developed as a surrogate for human readers to predict human diagnostic performance. The channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) with internal noise model has been found to predict human performance well in some situations, but does not always generalize well to unseen data. We have argued in the past that finding a model to predict human observers could be viewed as a machine learning problem. Following this approach, in this paper we propose a channelized relevance vector machine (CRVM) to predict human diagnostic scores in a detection task. We have previously used channelized support vector machines (CSVM) to predict human scores and have shown that this approach offers better and more robust predictions than the classical CHO method. The comparison of the proposed CRVM with our previously introduced CSVM method suggests that CRVM can achieve similar generalization accuracy, while dramatically reducing model complexity and computation time.

Probe measurements and numerical model predictions of evolving size distributions in premixed flames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Filippo, A.; Sgro, L.A.; Lanzuolo, G.

2009-09-15

Particle size distributions (PSDs), measured with a dilution probe and a Differential Mobility Analyzer (DMA), and numerical predictions of these PSDs, based on a model that includes only coagulation or alternatively inception and coagulation, are compared to investigate particle growth processes and possible sampling artifacts in the post-flame region of a C/O = 0.65 premixed laminar ethylene-air flame. Inputs to the numerical model are the PSD measured early in the flame (the initial condition for the aerosol population) and the temperature profile measured along the flame's axial centerline. The measured PSDs are initially unimodal, with a modal mobility diameter ofmore » 2.2 nm, and become bimodal later in the post-flame region. The smaller mode is best predicted with a size-dependent coagulation model, which allows some fraction of the smallest particles to escape collisions without resulting in coalescence or coagulation through the size-dependent coagulation efficiency ({gamma}{sub SD}). Instead, when {gamma} = 1 and the coagulation rate is equal to the collision rate for all particles regardless of their size, the coagulation model significantly under predicts the number concentration of both modes and over predicts the size of the largest particles in the distribution compared to the measured size distributions at various heights above the burner. The coagulation ({gamma}{sub SD}) model alone is unable to reproduce well the larger particle mode (mode II). Combining persistent nucleation with size-dependent coagulation brings the predicted PSDs to within experimental error of the measurements, which seems to suggest that surface growth processes are relatively insignificant in these flames. Shifting measured PSDs a few mm closer to the burner surface, generally adopted to correct for probe perturbations, does not produce a better matching between the experimental and the numerical results. (author)« less

Quantitative risk management in gas injection project: a case study from Oman oil and gas industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadem, Mohammad Miftaur Rahman Khan; Piya, Sujan; Shamsuzzoha, Ahm

2017-09-01

The purpose of this research was to study the recognition, application and quantification of the risks associated in managing projects. In this research, the management of risks in an oil and gas project is studied and implemented within a case company in Oman. In this study, at first, the qualitative data related to risks in the project were identified through field visits and extensive interviews. These data were then translated into numerical values based on the expert's opinion. Further, the numerical data were used as an input to Monte Carlo simulation. RiskyProject Professional™ software was used to simulate the system based on the identified risks. The simulation result predicted a delay of about 2 years as a worse case with no chance of meeting the project's on stream date. Also, it has predicted 8% chance of exceeding the total estimated budget. The result of numerical analysis from the proposed model is validated by comparing it with the result of qualitative analysis, which was obtained through discussion with various project managers of company.

Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

2013-04-01

Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

Comprehensive Prediction of Large-height Swell-like Waves in East Coast of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, S. J.; Lee, C.; Ahn, S. J.; Kim, H. K.

2014-12-01

There have been growing interests in the large-height swell-like wave (LSW) in the east coast of Korea because such big waves have caused human victims as well as damages to facilities such as breakwaters in the coast. The LSW was found to be generated due to an atmospherically great valley in the north area of the East Sea and then propagate long distance to the east coast of Korea in prominently southwest direction (Oh et al., 2010).In this study, we will perform two methods, real-time data based and numerical-model based predictions in order to predict the LSW in the east coast of Korea. First, the real-time data based prediction method uses information which is collected by the directional wave gauge installed near Sokcho. Using the wave model SWAN (Booij et al., 1999) and the wave ray method (Munk and Arthur, 1952), we will estimate wave data in open sea from the real-time data and predict the travel time of LSW from the measurement site (near Sokcho) to several target points in the east coast of Korea. Second, the numerical-model based method uses three different numerical models; WW3 in deep water, SWAN in shallow water, and CADMAS-SURF for wave run-up (CDIT). The surface winds from the 72 hours prediction system of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) GFS (Global Forecast System) will be inputted in finer grids after interpolating these in certain domains of WW3 and SWAN models. The significant wave heights and peak wave directions predicted by the two methods will be compared to the measured data of LSW at several target points near the coasts. Further, the prediction method will be improved using more measurement sites which will be installed in the future. ReferencesBooij, N., Ris, R.C., and Holthuijsen, L.H. (1999). A third-generation wave model for coastal regions 1. Model description and validation. J. of Geophysical Research, 103(C4), 7649-7666.Munk, W.H. and Arthur, R.S. (1952). Gravity Waves. 13. Wave Intensity along a Refracted Ray. National Bureau of Standards Circular 521, Washington D.C., 95-108.Oh, S.-H., Jeong, W.-M., Lee, D.Y. and Kim, S.I. (2010). Analysis of the reason for occurrence of large-height swell-like waves in the east coast of Korea. J. of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers, 22(2), 101-111 (in Korean).

Heat transfer and vascular cambium necrosis in the boles of trees during surface fires

Treesearch

M. B. Dickinson

2002-01-01

Heat-transfer and cell-survival models are used to link surface fire behavior with vascular cambium necrosis from heating by flames. Vascular cambium cell survival was predicted with a numerical model based on the kinetics of protein denaturation and parameterized with data from the literature. Cell survival was predicted for vascular cambium temperature regimes...

Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale phosphorus loss

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Numerous models exist for describing phosphorus (P) losses from agricultural fields. The complexity of these models varies considerably ranging from simple empirically-based annual time-step models to more complex process-based daily time step models. While better accuracy is often assumed with more...

Prediction of slope stability based on numerical modeling of stress–strain state of rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozhogulov Nifadyev, KCh, VI; Usmanov, SF

2018-03-01

The paper presents the developed technique for the estimation of rock mass stability based on the finite element modeling of stress–strain state of rocks. The modeling results on the pit wall landslide as a flow of particles along a sloped surface are described.

Dynamic stability analysis for capillary channel flow: One-dimensional and three-dimensional computations and the equivalent steady state technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grah, Aleksander; Dreyer, Michael E.

2010-01-01

Spacecraft technology provides a series of applications for capillary channel flow. It can serve as a reliable means for positioning and transport of liquids under low gravity conditions. Basically, capillary channels provide liquid paths with one or more free surfaces. A problem may be flow instabilities leading to a collapse of the liquid surfaces. A result is undesired gas ingestion and a two phase flow which can in consequence cause several technical problems. The presented capillary channel consists of parallel plates with two free liquid surfaces. The flow rate is established by a pump at the channel outlet, creating a lower pressure within the channel. Owing to the pressure difference between the liquid phase and the ambient gas phase the free surfaces bend inwards and remain stable as long as they are able to resist the steady and unsteady pressure effects. For the numerical prediction of the flow stability two very different models are used. The one-dimensional unsteady model is mainly based on the Bernoulli equation, the continuity equation, and the Gauss-Laplace equation. For three-dimensional evaluations an open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool is applied. For verifications the numerical results are compared with quasisteady and unsteady data of a sounding rocket experiment. Contrary to previous experiments this one results in a significantly longer observation sequence. Furthermore, the critical point of the steady flow instability could be approached by a quasisteady technique. As in previous experiments the comparison to the numerical model evaluation shows a very good agreement for the movement of the liquid surfaces and for the predicted flow instability. The theoretical prediction of the flow instability is related to the speed index, based on characteristic velocities of the capillary channel flow. Stable flow regimes are defined by stability criteria for steady and unsteady flow. The one-dimensional computation of the speed index is based on the technique of the equivalent steady system, which is published for the first time in the present paper. This approach assumes that for every unsteady state an equivalent steady state with a special boundary condition can be formulated. The equivalent steady state technique enables a reformulation of the equation system and an efficient and reliable speed index computation. Furthermore, the existence of the numerical singularity at the critical point of the steady flow instability, postulated in previous publication, is demonstrated in detail. The numerical singularity is related to the stability criterion for steady flow and represents the numerical consequence of the liquid surface collapse. The evaluation and generation of the pressure diagram is demonstrated in detail with a series of numerical dynamic flow studies. The stability diagram, based on one-dimensional computation, gives a detailed overview of the stable and instable flow regimes. This prediction is in good agreement with the experimentally observed critical flow conditions and results of three-dimensional CFD computations.

Evaluation of an Impedance Model for Perforates Including the Effect of Bias Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Betts, J. F.; Follet, J. I.; Kelly, J. J.; Thomas, R. H.

2000-01-01

A new bias flow impedance model is developed for perforated plates from basic principles using as little empiricisms as possible. A quality experimental database was used to determine the predictive validity of the model. Results show that the model performs better for higher (15%) rather than lower (5%) percent open area (POA) samples. Based on the least squares ratio of numerical vs. experimental results, model predictions were on average within 20% and 30% for the higher and lower (POA), respectively. It is hypothesized on the work of other investigators that at lower POAs the higher fluid velocities in the perforate's orifices start forming unsteady vortices, which is not accounted for in our model. The numerical model, in general also underpredicts the experiments. It is theorized that the actual acoustic C(sub D) is lower than the measured raylometer C(sub D) used in the model. Using a larger C(sub D) makes the numerical model predict lower impedances. The frequency domain model derived in this paper shows very good agreement with another model derived using a time domain approach.

Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.

1985-01-01

Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.

Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boiloff in Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, A. K.; Steadman, T. E.; Maroney, J. L.

2007-01-01

This Technical Memorandum (TM) describes the thermal modeling effort undertaken at Marshall Space Flight Center to support the Cryogenic Test Laboratory at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for a study of insulation materials for cryogenic tanks in order to reduce propellant boiloff during long-term storage. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation program has been used to model boiloff in 1,000-L demonstration tanks built for testing the thermal performance of glass bubbles and perlite insulation. Numerical predictions of boiloff rate and ullage temperature have been compared with the measured data from the testing of demonstration tanks. A satisfactory comparison between measured and predicted data has been observed for both liquid nitrogen and hydrogen tests. Based on the experience gained with the modeling of the demonstration tanks, a numerical model of the liquid hydrogen storage tank at launch complex 39 at KSC was built. The predicted boiloff rate of hydrogen has been found to be in good agreement with observed field data. This TM describes three different models that have been developed during this period of study (March 2005 to June 2006), comparisons with test data, and results of parametric studies.

Overlay coating degradation by simultaneous oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, J. A.

1983-01-01

Degradation of NiCrAlZr overlay coatings on various NiCrAl substrates was examined after cyclic oxidation. Concentration/distance profiles were measured in the coating and substrate after various oxidation exposures at 1150 C. For each stubstrate, the Al content in the coating decreased rapidly. The concentration/distance profiles, and particularly that for Al, reflected the oxide spalling resistance of each coated substrate. A numerical model was developed to simulate diffusion associated with overlay-coating degradation by oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion. Input to the numerical model consisted of the Cr and Al content of the coating and substrate, ternary diffusivities, and various oxide spalling parameters. The model predicts the Cr and Al concentrations in the coating and substrate after any number of oxidation/thermal cycles. The numerical model also predicts coating failure based on the ability of the coating to supply sufficient Al to the oxide scale. The validity of the model was confirmed by comparison of the predicted and measured concentration/distance profiles. The model was subsequently used to identify the most critical system parameters affecting coating life.

A coupled ductile fracture phase-field model for crystal plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Padilla, Carlos Alberto; Markert, Bernd

2017-07-01

Nowadays crack initiation and evolution play a key role in the design of mechanical components. In the past few decades, several numerical approaches have been developed with the objective to predict these phenomena. The objective of this work is to present a simplified, nonetheless representative phenomenological model to predict the crack evolution of ductile fracture in single crystals. The proposed numerical approach is carried out by merging a conventional elasto-plastic crystal plasticity model and a phase-field model modified to predict ductile fracture. A two-dimensional initial boundary value problem of ductile fracture is introduced considering a single-crystal setup and Nickel-base superalloy material properties. The model is implemented into the finite element context subjected to a quasi-static uniaxial tension test. The results are then qualitatively analyzed and briefly compared to current benchmark results in the literature.

Numerical determination of lateral loss coefficients for subchannel analysis in nuclear fuel bundles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sin Kim; Goon-Cherl Park

1995-09-01

An accurate prediction of cross-flow based on detailed knowledge of the velocity field in subchannels of a nuclear fuel assembly is of importance in nuclear fuel performance analysis. In this study, the low-Reynolds number {kappa}-{epsilon} turbulence model has been adopted in two adjacent subchannels with cross-flow. The secondary flow is estimated accurately by the anisotropic algebraic Reynolds stress model. This model was numerically calculated by the finite element method and has been verified successfully through comparison with existing experimental data. Finally, with the numerical analysis of the velocity field in such subchannel domain, an analytical correlation of the lateral lossmore » coefficient is obtained to predict the cross-flow rate in subchannel analysis codes. The correlation is expressed as a function of the ratio of the lateral flow velocity to the donor subchannel axial velocity, recipient channel Reynolds number and pitch-to-diameter.« less

Numerical analysis of the effects induced by normal faults and dip angles on rock bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lishuai; Wang, Pu; Zhang, Peipeng; Zheng, Pengqiang; Xu, Bin

2017-10-01

The study of mining effects under the influences of a normal fault and its dip angle is significant for the prediction and prevention of rock bursts. Based on the geological conditions of panel 2301N in a coalmine, the evolution laws of the strata behaviors of the working face affected by a fault and the instability of the fault induced by mining operations with the working face of the footwall and hanging wall advancing towards a normal fault are studied using UDEC numerical simulation. The mechanism that induces rock burst is revealed, and the influence characteristics of the fault dip angle are analyzed. The results of the numerical simulation are verified by conducting a case study regarding the microseismic events. The results of this study serve as a reference for the prediction of rock bursts and their classification into hazardous areas under similar conditions.

Numerical noise prediction in fluid machinery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantle, Iris; Magagnato, Franco; Gabi, Martin

2005-09-01

Numerical methods successively became important in the design and optimization of fluid machinery. However, as noise emission is considered, one can hardly find standardized prediction methods combining flow and acoustical optimization. Several numerical field methods for sound calculations have been developed. Due to the complexity of the considered flow, approaches must be chosen to avoid exhaustive computing. In this contribution the noise of a simple propeller is investigated. The configurations of the calculations comply with an existing experimental setup chosen for evaluation. The used in-house CFD solver SPARC contains an acoustic module based on Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings Acoustic Analogy. From the flow results of the time dependent Large Eddy Simulation the time dependent acoustic sources are extracted and given to the acoustic module where relevant sound pressure levels are calculated. The difficulties, which arise while proceeding from open to closed rotors and from gas to liquid are discussed.

Development of the Semi-implicit Time Integration in KIM-SH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NAM, H.

2015-12-01

The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) was founded in 2011 by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to develop Korea's own global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system as nine year (2011-2019) project. The KIM-SH is a KIAPS integrated model-spectral element based in the HOMME. In KIM-SH, the explicit schemes are employed. We introduce the three- and two-time-level semi-implicit scheme in KIM-SH as the time integration. Explicit schemes however have a tendancy to be unstable and require very small timesteps while semi-implicit schemes are very stable and can have much larger timesteps.We define the linear and reference values, then by definition of semi-implicit scheme, we apply the linear solver as GMRES. The numerical results from experiments will be introduced with the current development status of the time integration in KIM-SH. Several numerical examples are shown to confirm the efficiency and reliability of the proposed schemes.

Computational prediction of hemolysis in a centrifugal ventricular assist device.

PubMed

Pinotti, M; Rosa, E S

1995-03-01

This paper describes the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to predict numerically the hemolysis in centrifugal pumps. A numerical hydrodynamical model, based on the full Navier-Stokes equation, was used to obtain the flow in a vaneless centrifugal pump (of corotating disks type). After proper postprocessing, critical zones in the channel were identified by means of two-dimensional color-coded maps of %Hb release. Simulation of different conditions revealed that flow behavior at the entrance region of the channel is the main cause of blood trauma in such devices. A useful feature resulting from the CFD simulation is the visualization of critical flow zones that are impossible to determine experimentally with in vitro hemolysis tests.

A Modified Isotropic-Kinematic Hardening Model to Predict the Defects in Tube Hydroforming Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Kai; Guo, Qun; Tao, Jie; Guo, Xun-zhong

2017-11-01

Numerical simulations of tube hydroforming process of hollow crankshafts were conducted by using finite element analysis method. Moreover, the modified model involving the integration of isotropic-kinematic hardening model with ductile criteria model was used to more accurately optimize the process parameters such as internal pressure, feed distance and friction coefficient. Subsequently, hydroforming experiments were performed based on the simulation results. The comparison between experimental and simulation results indicated that the prediction of tube deformation, crack and wrinkle was quite accurate for the tube hydroforming process. Finally, hollow crankshafts with high thickness uniformity were obtained and the thickness distribution between numerical and experimental results was well consistent.

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duda, David P.; Russell, James, III

2005-01-01

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Toward topology-based characterization of small-scale mixing in compressible turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suman, Sawan; Girimaji, Sharath

2011-11-01

Turbulent mixing rate at small scales of motion (molecular mixing) is governed by the steepness of the scalar-gradient field which in turn is dependent upon the prevailing velocity gradients. Thus motivated, we propose a velocity-gradient topology-based approach for characterizing small-scale mixing in compressible turbulence. We define a mixing efficiency metric that is dependent upon the topology of the solenoidal and dilatational deformation rates of a fluid element. The mixing characteristics of solenoidal and dilatational velocity fluctuations are clearly delineated. We validate this new approach by employing mixing data from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of compressible decaying turbulence with passive scalar. For each velocity-gradient topology, we compare the mixing efficiency predicted by the topology-based model with the corresponding conditional scalar variance obtained from DNS. The new mixing metric accurately distinguishes good and poor mixing topologies and indeed reasonably captures the numerical values. The results clearly demonstrate the viability of the proposed approach for characterizing and predicting mixing in compressible flows.

Distribution of aerosolized particles in healthy and emphysematous rat lungs: comparison between experimental and numerical studies.

PubMed

Oakes, Jessica M; Marsden, Alison L; Grandmont, Céline; Darquenne, Chantal; Vignon-Clementel, Irene E

2015-04-13

In silico models of airflow and particle deposition in the lungs are increasingly used to determine the therapeutic or toxic effects of inhaled aerosols. While computational methods have advanced significantly, relatively few studies have directly compared model predictions to experimental data. Furthermore, few prior studies have examined the influence of emphysema on particle deposition. In this work we performed airflow and particle simulations to compare numerical predictions to data from our previous aerosol exposure experiments. Employing an image-based 3D rat airway geometry, we first compared steady flow simulations to coupled 3D-0D unsteady simulations in the healthy rat lung. Then, in 3D-0D simulations, the influence of emphysema was investigated by matching disease location to the experimental study. In both the healthy unsteady and steady simulations, good agreement was found between numerical predictions of aerosol delivery and experimental deposition data. However, deposition patterns in the 3D geometry differed between the unsteady and steady cases. On the contrary, satisfactory agreement was not found between the numerical predictions and experimental data for the emphysematous lungs. This indicates that the deposition rate downstream of the 3D geometry is likely proportional to airflow delivery in the healthy lungs, but not in the emphysematous lungs. Including small airway collapse, variations in downstream airway size and tissue properties, and tracking particles throughout expiration may result in a more favorable agreement in future studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of numerical models of cavitating flows with the use of the homogeneous approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niedźwiedzka, Agnieszka; Schnerr, Günter H.; Sobieski, Wojciech

2016-06-01

The focus of research works on cavitation has changed since the 1960s; the behaviour of a single bubble is no more the area of interest for most scientists. Its place was taken by the cavitating flow considered as a whole. Many numerical models of cavitating flows came into being within the space of the last fifty years. They can be divided into two groups: multi-fluid and homogeneous (i.e., single-fluid) models. The group of homogenous models contains two subgroups: models based on transport equation and pressure based models. Several works tried to order particular approaches and presented short reviews of selected studies. However, these classifications are too rough to be treated as sufficiently accurate. The aim of this paper is to present the development paths of numerical investigations of cavitating flows with the use of homogeneous approach in order of publication year and with relatively detailed description. Each of the presented model is accompanied by examples of the application area. This review focuses not only on the list of the most significant existing models to predict sheet and cloud cavitation, but also on presenting their advantages and disadvantages. Moreover, it shows the reasons which inspired present authors to look for new ways of more accurate numerical predictions and dimensions of cavitation. The article includes also the division of source terms of presented models based on the transport equation with the use of standardized symbols.

Exploiting Information Diffusion Feature for Link Prediction in Sina Weibo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong; Zhang, Yongchao; Xu, Zhiming; Chu, Dianhui; Li, Sheng

2016-01-01

The rapid development of online social networks (e.g., Twitter and Facebook) has promoted research related to social networks in which link prediction is a key problem. Although numerous attempts have been made for link prediction based on network structure, node attribute and so on, few of the current studies have considered the impact of information diffusion on link creation and prediction. This paper mainly addresses Sina Weibo, which is the largest microblog platform with Chinese characteristics, and proposes the hypothesis that information diffusion influences link creation and verifies the hypothesis based on real data analysis. We also detect an important feature from the information diffusion process, which is used to promote link prediction performance. Finally, the experimental results on Sina Weibo dataset have demonstrated the effectiveness of our methods.

Exploiting Information Diffusion Feature for Link Prediction in Sina Weibo.

PubMed

Li, Dong; Zhang, Yongchao; Xu, Zhiming; Chu, Dianhui; Li, Sheng

2016-01-28

The rapid development of online social networks (e.g., Twitter and Facebook) has promoted research related to social networks in which link prediction is a key problem. Although numerous attempts have been made for link prediction based on network structure, node attribute and so on, few of the current studies have considered the impact of information diffusion on link creation and prediction. This paper mainly addresses Sina Weibo, which is the largest microblog platform with Chinese characteristics, and proposes the hypothesis that information diffusion influences link creation and verifies the hypothesis based on real data analysis. We also detect an important feature from the information diffusion process, which is used to promote link prediction performance. Finally, the experimental results on Sina Weibo dataset have demonstrated the effectiveness of our methods.

RT DDA: A hybrid method for predicting the scattering properties by densely packed media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramezan Pour, B.; Mackowski, D.

2017-12-01

The most accurate approaches to predicting the scattering properties of particulate media are based on exact solutions of the Maxwell's equations (MEs), such as the T-matrix and discrete dipole methods. Applying these techniques for optically thick targets is challenging problem due to the large-scale computations and are usually substituted by phenomenological radiative transfer (RT) methods. On the other hand, the RT technique is of questionable validity in media with large particle packing densities. In recent works, we used numerically exact ME solvers to examine the effects of particle concentration on the polarized reflection properties of plane parallel random media. The simulations were performed for plane parallel layers of wavelength-sized spherical particles, and results were compared with RT predictions. We have shown that RTE results monotonically converge to the exact solution as the particle volume fraction becomes smaller and one can observe a nearly perfect fit for packing densities of 2%-5%. This study describes the hybrid technique composed of exact and numerical scalar RT methods. The exact methodology in this work is the plane parallel discrete dipole approximation whereas the numerical method is based on the adding and doubling method. This approach not only decreases the computational time owing to the RT method but also includes the interference and multiple scattering effects, so it may be applicable to large particle density conditions.

Numerical analyses of ventilated cavitation over a 2-D NACA0015 hydrofoil using two turbulence modeling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Dan-dan; Yu, An; Ji, Bin; Zhou, Jia-jian; Luo, Xian-wu

2018-04-01

The present paper studies the ventilated cavitation over a NACA0015 hydrofoil by numerical methods. The corresponding cavity evolutions are obtained at three ventilation rates by using the level set method. To depict the complicated turbulent flow structure, the filter-based density corrected model (FBDCM) and the modified partially-averaged Navier-Stokes (MPANS) model are applied in the present numerical analyses. It is indicated that the predicted results of the cavitation shedding dynamics by both turbulence models agree fairly well with the experimental data. It is also noted that the shedding frequency and the super cavity length predicted by the MPANS method are closer to the experiment data as compared to that predicted by the FBDCM model. The simulation results show that in the ventilated cavitation, the vapor cavity and the air cavity have the same shedding frequency. As the ventilated rate increases, the vapor cavity is depressed rapidly. The cavitation-vortex interaction in the ventilated cavitation is studied based on the vorticity transport equation (VTE) and the Lagrangian coherent structure (LCS). Those results demonstrate that the vortex dilatation and baroclinic torque terms are highly dependent on the evolution of the cavitation. In addition, from the LCSs and the tracer particles in the flow field, one may see the process from the attached cavity to the cloud cavity.

Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 2. Effect of dietary countermeasures.

PubMed

Kassemi, Mohammad; Thompson, David

2016-09-01

An analytic Population Balance Equation model is used to assess the efficacy of citrate, pyrophosphate, and augmented fluid intake as dietary countermeasures aimed at reducing the risk of renal stone formation for astronauts. The model uses the measured biochemical profile of the astronauts as input and predicts the steady-state size distribution of the nucleating, growing, and agglomerating renal calculi subject to biochemical changes brought about by administration of these dietary countermeasures. Numerical predictions indicate that an increase in citrate levels beyond its average normal ground-based urinary values is beneficial but only to a limited extent. Unfortunately, results also indicate that any decline in the citrate levels during space travel below its normal urinary values on Earth can easily move the astronaut into the stone-forming risk category. Pyrophosphate is found to be an effective inhibitor since numerical predictions indicate that even at quite small urinary concentrations, it has the potential of shifting the maximum crystal aggregate size to a much smaller and plausibly safer range. Finally, our numerical results predict a decline in urinary volume below 1.5 liters/day can act as a dangerous promoter of renal stone development in microgravity while urinary volume levels of 2.5-3 liters/day can serve as effective space countermeasures. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Numerical simulation of flood barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srb, Pavel; Petrů, Michal; Kulhavý, Petr

This paper deals with testing and numerical simulating of flood barriers. The Czech Republic has been hit by several very devastating floods in past years. These floods caused several dozens of causalities and property damage reached billions of Euros. The development of flood measures is very important, especially for the reduction the number of casualties and the amount of property damage. The aim of flood control measures is the detention of water outside populated areas and drainage of water from populated areas as soon as possible. For new flood barrier design it is very important to know its behaviour in case of a real flood. During the development of the barrier several standardized tests have to be carried out. Based on the results from these tests numerical simulation was compiled using Abaqus software and some analyses were carried out. Based on these numerical simulations it will be possible to predict the behaviour of barriers and thus improve their design.

Comparison of two methods for detection of strain localization in sheet forming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lumelskyj, Dmytro; Lazarescu, Lucian; Banabic, Dorel; Rojek, Jerzy

2018-05-01

This paper presents a comparison of two criteria of strain localization in experimental research and numerical simulation of sheet metal forming. The first criterion is based on the analysis of the through-thickness thinning (through-thickness strain) and its first time derivative in the most strained zone. The limit strain in the second method is determined by the maximum of the strain acceleration. Experimental and numerical investigation have been carried out for the Nakajima test performed for different specimens of the DC04 grade steel sheet. The strain localization has been identified by analysis of experimental and numerical curves showing the evolution of strains and their derivatives in failure zones. The numerical and experimental limit strains calculated from both criteria have been compared with the experimental FLC evaluated according to the ISO 12004-2 norm. It has been shown that the first method predicts formability limits closer to the experimental FLC. The second criterion predicts values of strains higher than FLC determined according to ISO norm. These values are closer to the strains corresponding to the fracture limit. The results show that analysis of strain evolution allows us to determine strain localization in numerical simulation and experimental studies.

Single well productivity prediction of carbonate reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Xu

2018-06-01

It is very important to predict the single-well productivity for the development of oilfields. The fracture structure of carbonate fractured-cavity reservoirs is complex, and the change of single-well productivity is inconsistent with that of sandstone reservoir. Therefore, the establishment of carbonate oil well productivity It is very important. Based on reservoir reality, three different methods for predicting the productivity of carbonate reservoirs have been established based on different types of reservoirs. (1) To qualitatively analyze the single-well capacity relations corresponding to different reservoir types, predict the production capacity according to the different wells encountered by single well; (2) Predict the productivity of carbonate reservoir wells by using numerical simulation technology; (3) According to the historical production data of oil well, fit the relevant capacity formula and make single-well productivity prediction; (4) Predict the production capacity by using oil well productivity formula of carbonate reservoir.

Cellular Spacing Selection During the Directional Solidification of Binary Alloys. A Numerical Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Catalina, Adrian V.; Sen, S.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The evolution of cellular solid/liquid interfaces from an initially unstable planar front was studied by means of a two-dimensional computer simulation. The developed numerical model makes use of an interface tracking procedure and has the capability to describe the dynamics of the interface morphology based on local changes of the thermodynamic conditions. The fundamental physics of this formulation was validated against experimental microgravity results and the predictions of the analytical linear stability theory. The performed simulations revealed that in certain conditions, based on a competitive growth mechanism, an interface could become unstable to random perturbations of infinitesimal amplitude even at wavelengths smaller than the neutral wavelength, lambda(sub c), predicted by the linear stability theory. Furthermore, two main stages of spacing selection have been identified. In the first stage, at low perturbations amplitude, the selection mechanism is driven by the maximum growth rate of instabilities while in the second stage the selection is influenced by nonlinear phenomena caused by the interactions between the neighboring cells. Comparison of these predictions with other existing theories of pattern formation and experimental results will be discussed.

Critical frontier of the triangular Ising antiferromagnet in a field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xiaofeng; Wegewijs, Maarten; Blöte, Henk W.

2004-03-01

We study the critical line of the triangular Ising antiferromagnet in an external magnetic field by means of a finite-size analysis of results obtained by transfer-matrix and Monte Carlo techniques. We compare the shape of the critical line with predictions of two different theoretical scenarios. Both scenarios, while plausible, involve assumptions. The first scenario is based on the generalization of the model to a vertex model, and the assumption that the exact analytic form of the critical manifold of this vertex model is determined by the zeroes of an O(2) gauge-invariant polynomial in the vertex weights. However, it is not possible to fit the coefficients of such polynomials of orders up to 10, such as to reproduce the numerical data for the critical points. The second theoretical prediction is based on the assumption that a renormalization mapping exists of the Ising model on the Coulomb gas, and analysis of the resulting renormalization equations. It leads to a shape of the critical line that is inconsistent with the first prediction, but consistent with the numerical data.

Numerical Simulation of Molten Flow in Directed Energy Deposition Using an Iterative Geometry Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Timothy J.; Rumpfkeil, Markus P.; Chaudhary, Anil

2018-03-01

The complex, multi-faceted physics of laser-based additive metals processing tends to demand high-fidelity models and costly simulation tools to provide predictions accurate enough to aid in selecting process parameters. Of particular difficulty is the accurate determination of melt pool shape and size, which are useful for predicting lack-of-fusion, as this typically requires an adequate treatment of thermal and fluid flow. In this article we describe a novel numerical simulation tool which aims to achieve a balance between accuracy and cost. This is accomplished by making simplifying assumptions regarding the behavior of the gas-liquid interface for processes with a moderate energy density, such as Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS). The details of the implementation, which is based on the solver simpleFoam of the well-known software suite OpenFOAM, are given here and the tool is verified and validated for a LENS process involving Ti-6Al-4V. The results indicate that the new tool predicts width and height of a deposited track to engineering accuracy levels.

Numerical Simulation of Molten Flow in Directed Energy Deposition Using an Iterative Geometry Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Timothy J.; Rumpfkeil, Markus P.; Chaudhary, Anil

2018-06-01

The complex, multi-faceted physics of laser-based additive metals processing tends to demand high-fidelity models and costly simulation tools to provide predictions accurate enough to aid in selecting process parameters. Of particular difficulty is the accurate determination of melt pool shape and size, which are useful for predicting lack-of-fusion, as this typically requires an adequate treatment of thermal and fluid flow. In this article we describe a novel numerical simulation tool which aims to achieve a balance between accuracy and cost. This is accomplished by making simplifying assumptions regarding the behavior of the gas-liquid interface for processes with a moderate energy density, such as Laser Engineered Net Shaping (LENS). The details of the implementation, which is based on the solver simpleFoam of the well-known software suite OpenFOAM, are given here and the tool is verified and validated for a LENS process involving Ti-6Al-4V. The results indicate that the new tool predicts width and height of a deposited track to engineering accuracy levels.

Fluid Flow Characteristics and Porosity Behavior in Full Penetration Laser Welding of a Titanium Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Baohua; Allen, Chris; Blackburn, Jon; Hilton, Paul; Du, Dong

2015-04-01

In this paper, a computational fluid mechanics model is developed for full penetration laser welding of titanium alloy Ti6Al4V. This has been used to analyze possible porosity formation mechanisms, based on predictions of keyhole behavior and fluid flow characteristics in the weld pool. Numerical results show that when laser welding 3 mm thickness titanium alloy sheets with given laser beam focusing optics, keyhole depth oscillates before a full penetration keyhole is formed, but thereafter keyhole collapses are not predicted numerically. For lower power, lower speed welding, the fluid flow behind the keyhole is turbulent and unstable, and vortices are formed. Molten metal is predicted to flow away from the center plane of the weld pool, and leave a gap or void within the weld pool behind the keyhole. For higher power, higher speed welding, fluid flow is less turbulent, and such vortices are not formed. Corresponding experimental results show that porosity was absent in the melt runs made at higher power and higher welding speed. In contrast, large pores were present in melt runs made at lower power and lower welding speed. Based on the combination of experimental results and numerical predictions, it is proposed that porosity formation when keyhole laser welding may result from turbulent fluid flow behind the keyhole, with the larger the value of associated Reynolds number, the higher the possibility of porosity formation. For such fluid flow controlled porosities, measures to decrease Reynolds number of the fluid flow close to the keyhole could prove effective in reducing or avoiding porosity.

Are Droughts in the United States Great Plains Predictable on Seasonal and Longer Time Scales?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, M.; Pegion, P.; Kistler, M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The United States Great Plains has experienced numerous episodes of unusually dry conditions lasting anywhere from months to several years, In this presentation, we will examine the predictability of such episodes and the physical mechanisms controlling the variability of the summer climate of the continental United States. The analysis is based on ensembles of multi-year simulations and seasonal hindcasts generated with the NASA Seasonal to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) General Circulation Model.

On the Use of Equivalent Linearization for High-Cycle Fatigue Analysis of Geometrically Nonlinear Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.

2003-01-01

The use of stress predictions from equivalent linearization analyses in the computation of high-cycle fatigue life is examined. Stresses so obtained differ in behavior from the fully nonlinear analysis in both spectral shape and amplitude. Consequently, fatigue life predictions made using this data will be affected. Comparisons of fatigue life predictions based upon the stress response obtained from equivalent linear and numerical simulation analyses are made to determine the range over which the equivalent linear analysis is applicable.

Numerical simulations of negatively buoyant jets in an immiscible fluid using the Particle Finite Element Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mier-Torrecilla, Monica; Geyer, Adelina; Phillips, Jeremy C.; Idelsohn, Sergio R.; Oñate, Eugenio

2010-05-01

In this work we investigate numerically the injection of a negatively buoyant jet into a homogenous immiscible ambient fluid using the Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM), a newly developed tool that combines the flexibility of particle-based methods with the accuracy of the finite element discretization. In order to test the applicability of PFEM to the study of negatively buoyant jets, we have compared the two-dimensional numerical results with experiments investigating the injection of a jet of dyed water through a nozzle in the base of a cylindrical tank containing rapeseed oil. In both simulations and experiments, the fountain inlet flow velocity and nozzle diameter were varied to cover a wide range of Reynolds Re and Froude numbers Fr, such that 0.1 < Fr < 30, reproducing both weak and strong fountains in a laminar regime (8 < Re < 1350). Numerical results, together with the experimental observations, allow us to describe three different fountain behaviors that have not been previously reported. Based on the Re and Fr values for the numerical and experimental simulations, we have built a regime map to define how these values may control the occurrence of each of the observed flow types. Whereas the Fr number itself provides a prediction of the maximum penetration height of the jet, its combination with the Re number provides a prediction of the flow behavior for a specific nozzle diameter and injection velocity. Conclusive remarks concerning the dynamics of negatively buoyant jets may be applied later on to several geological situations, e.g. the flow structure of a fully submerged subaqueous eruptive vent discharging magma or the replenishment of magma chambers in the Earth's crust.

Thermal breakage of a discrete one-dimensional string.

PubMed

Lee, Chiu Fan

2009-09-01

We study the thermal breakage of a discrete one-dimensional string, with open and fixed ends, in the heavily damped regime. Basing our analysis on the multidimensional Kramers escape theory, we are able to make analytical predictions on the mean breakage rate and on the breakage propensity with respect to the breakage location on the string. We then support our predictions with numerical simulations.

Prediction of pressure drop in fluid tuned mounts using analytical and computational techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lasher, William C.; Khalilollahi, Amir; Mischler, John; Uhric, Tom

1993-01-01

A simplified model for predicting pressure drop in fluid tuned isolator mounts was developed. The model is based on an exact solution to the Navier-Stokes equations and was made more general through the use of empirical coefficients. The values of these coefficients were determined by numerical simulation of the flow using the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package FIDAP.

Evaluation of procedures for prediction of unconventional gas in the presence of geologic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.

2009-01-01

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2009.

International journal of computational fluid dynamics real-time prediction of unsteady flow based on POD reduced-order model and particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikuchi, Ryota; Misaka, Takashi; Obayashi, Shigeru

2016-04-01

An integrated method consisting of a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD)-based reduced-order model (ROM) and a particle filter (PF) is proposed for real-time prediction of an unsteady flow field. The proposed method is validated using identical twin experiments of an unsteady flow field around a circular cylinder for Reynolds numbers of 100 and 1000. In this study, a PF is employed (ROM-PF) to modify the temporal coefficient of the ROM based on observation data because the prediction capability of the ROM alone is limited due to the stability issue. The proposed method reproduces the unsteady flow field several orders faster than a reference numerical simulation based on Navier-Stokes equations. Furthermore, the effects of parameters, related to observation and simulation, on the prediction accuracy are studied. Most of the energy modes of the unsteady flow field are captured, and it is possible to stably predict the long-term evolution with ROM-PF.

Analytical research on impacting load of aircraft crashing upon moveable concrete target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tong; Ou, Zhuocheng; Duan, Zhuoping; Huang, Fenglei

2018-03-01

The impact load of an aircraft impact upon moveable concrete target was analyzed in this paper by both theoretical and numerical methods. The aircraft was simplified as a one dimensional pole and stress-wave theory was used to deduce the new formula. Furthermore, aiming to compare with previous experimental data, a numerical calculation based on the new formula had been carried out which showed good agreement with the experimental data. The approach, a new formula with particular numerical method, can predict not only the impact load but also the deviation between moveable and static concrete target.

Numerical Simulation of Tension Properties for Al-Cu Alloy Friction Stir-Welded Joints with GTN Damage Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Guo-Qin; Sun, Feng-Yang; Cao, Fang-Li; Chen, Shu-Jun; Barkey, Mark E.

2015-11-01

The numerical simulation of tensile fracture behavior on Al-Cu alloy friction stir-welded joint was performed with the Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) damage model. The parameters of the GTN model were studied in each region of the friction stir-welded joint by means of inverse identification. Based on the obtained parameters, the finite element model of the welded joint was built to predict the fracture behavior and tension properties. Good agreement can be found between the numerical and experimental results in the location of the tensile fracture and the mechanical properties.

The Effect of Basis Selection on Thermal-Acoustic Random Response Prediction Using Nonlinear Modal Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Przekop, Adam

2004-01-01

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for prediction of geometrically nonlinear response due to combined thermal-acoustic loadings. As with any such method, the accuracy of the solution is dictated by the selection of the modal basis, through which the nonlinear modal stiffness is determined. In this study, a suite of available bases are considered including (i) bending modes only; (ii) coupled bending and companion modes; (iii) uncoupled bending and companion modes; and (iv) bending and membrane modes. Comparison of these solutions with numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom indicates that inclusion of any membrane mode variants (ii - iv) in the basis affects the bending displacement and stress response predictions. The most significant effect is on the membrane displacement, where it is shown that only the type (iv) basis accurately predicts its behavior. Results are presented for beam and plate structures in the thermally pre-buckled regime.

Preschoolers' precision of the approximate number system predicts later school mathematics performance.

PubMed

Mazzocco, Michèle M M; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2011-01-01

The Approximate Number System (ANS) is a primitive mental system of nonverbal representations that supports an intuitive sense of number in human adults, children, infants, and other animal species. The numerical approximations produced by the ANS are characteristically imprecise and, in humans, this precision gradually improves from infancy to adulthood. Throughout development, wide ranging individual differences in ANS precision are evident within age groups. These individual differences have been linked to formal mathematics outcomes, based on concurrent, retrospective, or short-term longitudinal correlations observed during the school age years. However, it remains unknown whether this approximate number sense actually serves as a foundation for these school mathematics abilities. Here we show that ANS precision measured at preschool, prior to formal instruction in mathematics, selectively predicts performance on school mathematics at 6 years of age. In contrast, ANS precision does not predict non-numerical cognitive abilities. To our knowledge, these results provide the first evidence for early ANS precision, measured before the onset of formal education, predicting later mathematical abilities.

Noise Prediction of NASA SR2 Propeller in Transonic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaro, Michele De; Caridi, Domenico; Nicola, Carlo De

2010-09-01

In this paper we propose a numerical approach for noise prediction of high-speed propellers for Turboprop applications. It is based on a RANS approach for aerodynamic simulation coupled with Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) Acoustic Analogy for propeller noise prediction. The test-case geometry adopted for this study is the 8-bladed NASA SR2 transonic cruise propeller, and simulated Sound Pressure Levels (SPL) have been compared with experimental data available from Wind Tunnel and Flight Tests for different microphone locations in a range of Mach numbers between 0.78 and 0.85 and rotational velocities between 7000 and 9000 rpm. Results show the ability of this approach to predict noise to within a few dB of experimental data. Moreover corrections are provided to be applied to acoustic numerical results in order for them to be compared with Wind Tunnel and Flight Test experimental data, as well computational grid requirements and guidelines in order to perform complete aerodynamic and aeroacoustic calculations with highly competitive computational cost.

Scattering of sound by atmospheric turbulence predictions in a refractive shadow zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcbride, Walton E.; Bass, Henry E.; Raspet, Richard; Gilbert, Kenneth E.

1990-01-01

According to ray theory, regions exist in an upward refracting atmosphere where no sound should be present. Experiments show, however, that appreciable sound levels penetrate these so-called shadow zones. Two mechanisms contribute to sound in the shadow zone: diffraction and turbulent scattering of sound. Diffractive effects can be pronounced at lower frequencies but are small at high frequencies. In the short wavelength limit, then, scattering due to turbulence should be the predominant mechanism involved in producing the sound levels measured in shadow zones. No existing analytical method includes turbulence effects in the prediction of sound pressure levels in upward refractive shadow zones. In order to obtain quantitative average sound pressure level predictions, a numerical simulation of the effect of atmospheric turbulence on sound propagation is performed. The simulation is based on scattering from randomly distributed scattering centers ('turbules'). Sound pressure levels are computed for many realizations of a turbulent atmosphere. Predictions from the numerical simulation are compared with existing theories and experimental data.

State dependent model predictive control for orbital rendezvous using pulse-width pulse-frequency modulated thrusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Peng; Zhu, Zheng H.; Meguid, S. A.

2016-07-01

This paper studies the pulse-width pulse-frequency modulation based trajectory planning for orbital rendezvous and proximity maneuvering near a non-cooperative spacecraft in an elliptical orbit. The problem is formulated by converting the continuous control input, output from the state dependent model predictive control, into a sequence of pulses of constant magnitude by controlling firing frequency and duration of constant-magnitude thrusters. The state dependent model predictive control is derived by minimizing the control error of states and control roughness of control input for a safe, smooth and fuel efficient approaching trajectory. The resulting nonlinear programming problem is converted into a series of quadratic programming problem and solved by numerical iteration using the receding horizon strategy. The numerical results show that the proposed state dependent model predictive control with the pulse-width pulse-frequency modulation is able to effectively generate optimized trajectories using equivalent control pulses for the proximity maneuvering with less energy consumption.

A combination of HARMONIE short time direct normal irradiance forecasts and machine learning: The #hashtdim procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastón, Martín; Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos; Körnich, Heiner; Landelius, Tomas

2017-06-01

The present work describes the first approach of a new procedure to forecast Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI): the #hashtdim that treats to combine ground information and Numerical Weather Predictions. The system is centered in generate predictions for the very short time. It combines the outputs from the Numerical Weather Prediction Model HARMONIE with an adaptive methodology based on Machine Learning. The DNI predictions are generated with 15-minute and hourly temporal resolutions and presents 3-hourly updates. Each update offers forecasts to the next 12 hours, the first nine hours are generated with 15-minute temporal resolution meanwhile the last three hours present hourly temporal resolution. The system is proved over a Spanish emplacement with BSRN operative station in south of Spain (PSA station). The #hashtdim has been implemented in the framework of the Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies (DNICast) project, under the European Union's Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration framework.

Preschoolers' Precision of the Approximate Number System Predicts Later School Mathematics Performance

PubMed Central

Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.; Feigenson, Lisa; Halberda, Justin

2011-01-01

The Approximate Number System (ANS) is a primitive mental system of nonverbal representations that supports an intuitive sense of number in human adults, children, infants, and other animal species. The numerical approximations produced by the ANS are characteristically imprecise and, in humans, this precision gradually improves from infancy to adulthood. Throughout development, wide ranging individual differences in ANS precision are evident within age groups. These individual differences have been linked to formal mathematics outcomes, based on concurrent, retrospective, or short-term longitudinal correlations observed during the school age years. However, it remains unknown whether this approximate number sense actually serves as a foundation for these school mathematics abilities. Here we show that ANS precision measured at preschool, prior to formal instruction in mathematics, selectively predicts performance on school mathematics at 6 years of age. In contrast, ANS precision does not predict non-numerical cognitive abilities. To our knowledge, these results provide the first evidence for early ANS precision, measured before the onset of formal education, predicting later mathematical abilities. PMID:21935362

Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations.

PubMed

Kassemi, Mohammad; Thompson, David

2016-09-01

An analytical Population Balance Equation model is developed and used to assess the risk of critical renal stone formation for astronauts during future space missions. The model uses the renal biochemical profile of the subject as input and predicts the steady-state size distribution of the nucleating, growing, and agglomerating calcium oxalate crystals during their transit through the kidney. The model is verified through comparison with published results of several crystallization experiments. Numerical results indicate that the model is successful in clearly distinguishing between 1-G normal and 1-G recurrent stone-former subjects based solely on their published 24-h urine biochemical profiles. Numerical case studies further show that the predicted renal calculi size distribution for a microgravity astronaut is closer to that of a recurrent stone former on Earth rather than to a normal subject in 1 G. This interestingly implies that the increase in renal stone risk level in microgravity is relatively more significant for a normal person than a stone former. However, numerical predictions still underscore that the stone-former subject carries by far the highest absolute risk of critical stone formation during space travel. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

2015-08-05

Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

A research program for improving heat transfer prediction for the laminar to turbulent transition region of turbine vanes/blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Frederick F.

1993-01-01

A program sponsored by NASA for the investigation of the heat transfer in the transition region of turbine vanes and blades with the objective of improving the capability for predicting heat transfer is described. The accurate prediction of gas-side heat transfer is important to the determination of turbine longevity, engine performance, and developmental costs. The need for accurate predictions will become greater as the operating temperatures and stage loading levels of advanced turbine engines increase. The present methods for predicting transition shear stress and heat transfer on turbine blades are based on incomplete knowledge and are largely empirical. To meet the objective of the NASA program, a team approach consisting of researchers from government, universities, a research institute, and a small business is presented. The research is divided into the areas of experiments, direct numerical simulations (DNS), and turbulence modeling. A summary of the results to date is given for the above research areas in a high-disturbance environment (bypass transition) with a discussion of the model development necessary for use in numerical codes.

Species and temperature measurement in H2/O2 rocket flow fields by means of Raman scattering diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Groot, Wim A.; Weiss, Jonathan M.

1992-01-01

Validation of CFD codes developed for prediction and evaluation of rocket performance is hampered by a lack of experimental data. Nonintrusive laser based diagnostics are needed to provide spatially and temporally resolved gas dynamic and fluid dynamic measurements. This paper reports the first nonintrusive temperature and species measurements in the plume of a 110 N gaseous hydrogen/oxygen thruster at and below ambient pressures, obtained with spontaneous Raman spectroscopy. Measurements at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane are compared with predictions from a numerical solution of the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes and species transport equations with chemical kinetics, which fully model the combustor-nozzle-plume flowfield. The experimentally determined oxygen number density at the centerline at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane is four times that predicted by the model. The experimental number density data fall between those numerically predicted for the exit and 10 mm downstream planes in both magnitude and radial gradient. The predicted temperature levels are within 10 to 15 percent of measured values.

Numerical simulation of the casting process of titanium tooth crowns and bridges.

PubMed

Wu, M; Augthun, M; Wagner, I; Sahm, P R; Spiekermann, H

2001-06-01

The objectives of this paper were to simulate the casting process of titanium tooth crowns and bridges; to predict and control porosity defect. A casting simulation software, MAGMASOFT, was used. The geometry of the crowns with fine details of the occlusal surface were digitized by means of laser measuring technique, then converted and read in the simulation software. Both mold filling and solidification were simulated, the shrinkage porosity was predicted by a "feeding criterion", and the gas pore sensitivity was studied based on the mold filling and solidification simulations. Two types of dental prostheses (a single-crown casting and a three-unit-bridge) with various sprue designs were numerically "poured", and only one optimal design for each prosthesis was recommended for real casting trial. With the numerically optimized design, real titanium dental prostheses (five replicas for each) were made on a centrifugal casting machine. All the castings endured radiographic examination, and no porosity was detected in the cast prostheses. It indicates that the numerical simulation is an efficient tool for dental casting design and porosity control. Copyright 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers

Finger gnosis predicts a unique but small part of variance in initial arithmetic performance.

PubMed

Wasner, Mirjam; Nuerk, Hans-Christoph; Martignon, Laura; Roesch, Stephanie; Moeller, Korbinian

2016-06-01

Recent studies indicated that finger gnosis (i.e., the ability to perceive and differentiate one's own fingers) is associated reliably with basic numerical competencies. In this study, we aimed at examining whether finger gnosis is also a unique predictor for initial arithmetic competencies at the beginning of first grade-and thus before formal math instruction starts. Therefore, we controlled for influences of domain-specific numerical precursor competencies, domain-general cognitive ability, and natural variables such as gender and age. Results from 321 German first-graders revealed that finger gnosis indeed predicted a unique and relevant but nevertheless only small part of the variance in initial arithmetic performance (∼1%-2%) as compared with influences of general cognitive ability and numerical precursor competencies. Taken together, these results substantiated the notion of a unique association between finger gnosis and arithmetic and further corroborate the theoretical idea of finger-based representations contributing to numerical cognition. However, the only small part of variance explained by finger gnosis seems to limit its relevance for diagnostic purposes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Improved computational fluid dynamic simulations of blood flow in membrane oxygenators from X-ray imaging.

PubMed

Jones, Cameron C; McDonough, James M; Capasso, Patrizio; Wang, Dongfang; Rosenstein, Kyle S; Zwischenberger, Joseph B

2013-10-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is a useful tool in characterizing artificial lung designs by providing predictions of device performance through analyses of pressure distribution, perfusion dynamics, and gas transport properties. Validation of numerical results in membrane oxygenators has been predominantly based on experimental pressure measurements with little emphasis placed on confirmation of the velocity fields due to opacity of the fiber membrane and limitations of optical velocimetric methods. Biplane X-ray digital subtraction angiography was used to visualize flow of a blood analogue through a commercial membrane oxygenator at 1-4.5 L/min. Permeability and inertial coefficients of the Ergun equation were experimentally determined to be 180 and 2.4, respectively. Numerical simulations treating the fiber bundle as a single momentum sink according to the Ergun equation accurately predicted pressure losses across the fiber membrane, but significantly underestimated velocity magnitudes in the fiber bundle. A scaling constant was incorporated into the numerical porosity and reduced the average difference between experimental and numerical values in the porous media regions from 44 ± 4% to 6 ± 5%.

Development of the vertical Bridgman technique for 6-inch diameter c-axis sapphire growth supported by numerical simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyagawa, Chihiro; Kobayashi, Takumi; Taishi, Toshinori; Hoshikawa, Keigo

2014-09-01

Based on the growth of 3-inch diameter c-axis sapphire using the vertical Bridgman (VB) technique, numerical simulations were made and used to guide the growth of a 6-inch diameter sapphire. A 2D model of the VB hot-zone was constructed, the seeding interface shape of the 3-inch diameter sapphire as revealed by green laser scattering was estimated numerically, and the temperature distributions of two VB hot-zone models designed for 6-inch diameter sapphire growth were numerically simulated to achieve the optimal growth of large crystals. The hot-zone model with one heater was selected and prepared, and 6-inch diameter c-axis sapphire boules were actually grown, as predicted by the numerical results.

An elastic-plastic contact model for line contact structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Haibin; Zhao, Yingtao; He, Zhifeng; Zhang, Ruinan; Ma, Shaopeng

2018-06-01

Although numerical simulation tools are now very powerful, the development of analytical models is very important for the prediction of the mechanical behaviour of line contact structures for deeply understanding contact problems and engineering applications. For the line contact structures widely used in the engineering field, few analytical models are available for predicting the mechanical behaviour when the structures deform plastically, as the classic Hertz's theory would be invalid. Thus, the present study proposed an elastic-plastic model for line contact structures based on the understanding of the yield mechanism. A mathematical expression describing the global relationship between load history and contact width evolution of line contact structures was obtained. The proposed model was verified through an actual line contact test and a corresponding numerical simulation. The results confirmed that this model can be used to accurately predict the elastic-plastic mechanical behaviour of a line contact structure.

A Thermodynamically Consistent Damage Model for Advanced Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maimi, Pere; Camanho, Pedro P.; Mayugo, Joan-Andreu; Davila, Carlos G.

2006-01-01

A continuum damage model for the prediction of damage onset and structural collapse of structures manufactured in fiber-reinforced plastic laminates is proposed. The principal damage mechanisms occurring in the longitudinal and transverse directions of a ply are represented by a damage tensor that is fixed in space. Crack closure under load reversal effects are taken into account using damage variables established as a function of the sign of the components of the stress tensor. Damage activation functions based on the LaRC04 failure criteria are used to predict the different damage mechanisms occurring at the ply level. The constitutive damage model is implemented in a finite element code. The objectivity of the numerical model is assured by regularizing the dissipated energy at a material point using Bazant's Crack Band Model. To verify the accuracy of the approach, analyses of coupon specimens were performed, and the numerical predictions were compared with experimental data.

Realistic wave-optics simulation of X-ray phase-contrast imaging at a human scale

PubMed Central

Sung, Yongjin; Segars, W. Paul; Pan, Adam; Ando, Masami; Sheppard, Colin J. R.; Gupta, Rajiv

2015-01-01

X-ray phase-contrast imaging (XPCI) can dramatically improve soft tissue contrast in X-ray medical imaging. Despite worldwide efforts to develop novel XPCI systems, a numerical framework to rigorously predict the performance of a clinical XPCI system at a human scale is not yet available. We have developed such a tool by combining a numerical anthropomorphic phantom defined with non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) and a wave optics-based simulator that can accurately capture the phase-contrast signal from a human-scaled numerical phantom. Using a synchrotron-based, high-performance XPCI system, we provide qualitative comparison between simulated and experimental images. Our tool can be used to simulate the performance of XPCI on various disease entities and compare proposed XPCI systems in an unbiased manner. PMID:26169570

Realistic wave-optics simulation of X-ray phase-contrast imaging at a human scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, Yongjin; Segars, W. Paul; Pan, Adam; Ando, Masami; Sheppard, Colin J. R.; Gupta, Rajiv

2015-07-01

X-ray phase-contrast imaging (XPCI) can dramatically improve soft tissue contrast in X-ray medical imaging. Despite worldwide efforts to develop novel XPCI systems, a numerical framework to rigorously predict the performance of a clinical XPCI system at a human scale is not yet available. We have developed such a tool by combining a numerical anthropomorphic phantom defined with non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) and a wave optics-based simulator that can accurately capture the phase-contrast signal from a human-scaled numerical phantom. Using a synchrotron-based, high-performance XPCI system, we provide qualitative comparison between simulated and experimental images. Our tool can be used to simulate the performance of XPCI on various disease entities and compare proposed XPCI systems in an unbiased manner.

Graphene-based perfect optical absorbers harnessing guided mode resonances.

PubMed

Grande, M; Vincenti, M A; Stomeo, T; Bianco, G V; de Ceglia, D; Aközbek, N; Petruzzelli, V; Bruno, G; De Vittorio, M; Scalora, M; D'Orazio, A

2015-08-10

We investigate graphene-based optical absorbers that exploit guided mode resonances (GMRs) attaining theoretically perfect absorption over a bandwidth of few nanometers (over the visible and near-infrared ranges) with a 40-fold increase of the monolayer graphene absorption. We analyze the influence of the geometrical parameters on the absorption rate and the angular response for oblique incidence. Finally, we experimentally verify the theoretical predictions in a one-dimensional, dielectric grating by placing it near either a metallic or a dielectric mirror, thus achieving very good agreement between numerical predictions and experimental results.

Forces and moments on a slender, cavitating body

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hailey, C.E.; Clark, E.L.; Buffington, R.J.

1988-01-01

Recently a numerical code has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories to predict the pitching moment, normal force, and axial force of a slender, supercavitating shape. The potential flow about the body and cavity is calculated using an axial distribution of source/sink elements. The cavity surface is assumed to be a constant pressure streamline, extending beyond the base of the model. Slender body approximation is used to model the crossflow for small angles of attack. A significant extension of previous work in cavitation flow is the inclusion of laminar and turbulent boundary layer solutions on the body. Predictions with thismore » code, for axial force at zero angle of attack, show good agreement with experiments. There are virtually no published data availble with which to benchmark the pitching moment and normal force predictions. An experiment was designed to measure forces and moments on a supercavitation shape. The primary reason for the test was to obtain much needed data to benchmark the hydrodynamic force and moment predictions. Since the numerical prediction is for super cavitating shapes at very small cavitation numbers, the experiment was designed to be a ventilated cavity test. This paper describes the experimental procedure used to measure the pitching moment, axial and normal forces, and base pressure on a slender body with a ventilated cavity. Limited results are presented for pitching moment and normal force. 5 refs., 7 figs.« less

Numerical modeling of NO formation in laminar Bunsen flames -- A flamelet approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chou, C.P.; Chen, J.Y.; Yam, C.G.

1998-08-01

Based on the flamelet concept, a numerical model has been developed for fast predictions of NO{sub x} and CO emissions from laminar flames. The model is applied to studying NO formation in the secondary nonpremixed flame zone of fuel-rich methane Bunsen flames. By solving the steady-state flamelet equations with the detailed GR12.1 methane-air mechanism, a flamelet library is generated containing thermochemical information for a range of scalar dissipation rates at the ambient pressure condition. Modeling of NO formation is made by solving its conservation equation with chemical source term evaluated based on flamelet library using the extended Zeldovich mechanism andmore » NO reburning reactions. The optically-thin radiation heat transfer model is used to explore the potential effect of heat loss on thermal NO formation. The numerical scheme solves the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations as well as three additional equations: the mixture fraction, the NO mass fraction, and the enthalpy deficit due to radiative heat loss. With an established flamelet library, typical computing times are about 5 hours per calculation on a DEC-3000 300LX workstation. The predicted mixing field, radial temperature profiles, and NO distributions compare favorably with recent experimental data obtained by Nguyen et al. The dependence of NO{sub x} emission on equivalence ratio is studied numerically and the predictions are found to agree reasonably well with the measurements by Muss. The computed results show a decreasing trend of NO{sub x} emission with the equivalence ratio but an increasing trend in the CO emission index. By examining this trade-off between NO{sub x} and CO, an optimal equivalence ratio of 1.4 is found to yield the lowest combined emission.« less

Experimental Investigation of Hydrodynamic Self-Acting Gas Bearings at High Knudsen Numbers.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Reynolds equation. Two finite - difference algorithms were used to solve the equation. Numerical results - the predicted load and pitch angle - from the two...that should be used. The majority of the numerical solution are still based on the finite difference approximation of the governing equation. But in... finite difference method. Reddi and Chu [26) also noted that it is very difficult to compare the two techniques on the same level since the solution

Microscopic predictions of fission yields based on the time dependent GCM formalism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regnier, D.; Dubray, N.; Schunck, N.; Verrière, M.

2016-03-01

Accurate knowledge of fission fragment yields is an essential ingredient of numerous applications ranging from the formation of elements in the r-process to fuel cycle optimization in nuclear energy. The need for a predictive theory applicable where no data is available, together with the variety of potential applications, is an incentive to develop a fully microscopic approach to fission dynamics. One of the most promising theoretical frameworks is the time-dependent generator coordinate method (TDGCM) applied under the Gaussian overlap approximation (GOA). Previous studies reported promising results by numerically solving the TDGCM+GOA equation with a finite difference technique. However, the computational cost of this method makes it difficult to properly control numerical errors. In addition, it prevents one from performing calculations with more than two collective variables. To overcome these limitations, we developed the new code FELIX-1.0 that solves the TDGCM+GOA equation based on the Galerkin finite element method. In this article, we briefly illustrate the capabilities of the solver FELIX-1.0, in particular its validation for n+239Pu low energy induced fission. This work is the result of a collaboration between CEA,DAM,DIF and LLNL on nuclear fission theory.

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duda, David P.; Minnis, Patrick

2009-01-01

Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data.

Understanding the retention and fate prediction of copper ions in single and competitive system in two soils: An experimental and numerical investigation.

PubMed

Buragohain, Poly; Garg, Ankit; Feng, Song; Lin, Peng; Sreedeep, S

2018-09-01

The concept of sponge city has become very popular with major thrust on design of waste containment systems such as biofilter and green roofs. Factors that may influence pollutant ions retention in these systems will be soil type and also their interactions. The study investigated single and competitive interaction of copper in two soils and its influence on the fate prediction. Freundlich and Langmuir nonlinear isotherms were selected to quantify the retention results. Series of numerical simulations were conducted to model 1 D advection-dispersion transport for the two soils and analyse the role of isotherms. The results indicated that contaminant fate prediction of copper-soil interaction based on the two non-linear isotherms was different for both single and that in competition. Retardation factor obtained from Freundlich (R F ) isotherm predicts more than Langmuir (R La ). This observation is more explicit at the higher range of equilibrium concentration. Fate prediction based on retardation value obtained from retention isotherms exhibited some anomalous trends contradicting the experimental findings due to inherent assumptions in governing equations. The necessity to have an approximate assessment of contaminant concentration in the field to effectively use contaminant retention results for accurate fate prediction is highlighted here. The study is important for modellers in design or analysis of biolfilter system (sponge city), where multiple ions tend to exist in waste water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theoretical and Numerical Modeling of Transport of Land Use-Specific Fecal Source Identifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bombardelli, F. A.; Sirikanchana, K. J.; Bae, S.; Wuertz, S.

2008-12-01

Microbial contamination in coastal and estuarine waters is of particular concern to public health officials. In this work, we advocate that well-formulated and developed mathematical and numerical transport models can be combined with modern molecular techniques in order to predict continuous concentrations of microbial indicators under diverse scenarios of interest, and that they can help in source identification of fecal pollution. As a proof of concept, we present initially the theory, numerical implementation and validation of one- and two-dimensional numerical models aimed at computing the distribution of fecal source identifiers in water bodies (based on Bacteroidales marker DNA sequences) coming from different land uses such as wildlife, livestock, humans, dogs or cats. These models have been developed to allow for source identification of fecal contamination in large bodies of water. We test the model predictions using diverse velocity fields and boundary conditions. Then, we present some preliminary results of an application of a three-dimensional water quality model to address the source of fecal contamination in the San Pablo Bay (SPB), United States, which constitutes an important sub-embayment of the San Francisco Bay. The transport equations for Bacteroidales include the processes of advection, diffusion, and decay of Bacteroidales. We discuss the validation of the developed models through comparisons of numerical results with field campaigns developed in the SPB. We determine the extent and importance of the contamination in the bay for two decay rates obtained from field observations, corresponding to total host-specific Bacteroidales DNA and host-specific viable Bacteroidales cells, respectively. Finally, we infer transport conditions in the SPB based on the numerical results, characterizing the fate of outflows coming from the Napa, Petaluma and Sonoma rivers.

Residual Strength Prediction of Fuselage Structures with Multiple Site Damage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Chuin-Shan; Wawrzynek, Paul A.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.

1999-01-01

This paper summarizes recent results on simulating full-scale pressure tests of wide body, lap-jointed fuselage panels with multiple site damage (MSD). The crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion and the FRANC3D/STAGS software program were used to analyze stable crack growth under conditions of general yielding. The link-up of multiple cracks and residual strength of damaged structures were predicted. Elastic-plastic finite element analysis based on the von Mises yield criterion and incremental flow theory with small strain assumption was used. A global-local modeling procedure was employed in the numerical analyses. Stress distributions from the numerical simulations are compared with strain gage measurements. Analysis results show that accurate representation of the load transfer through the rivets is crucial for the model to predict the stress distribution accurately. Predicted crack growth and residual strength are compared with test data. Observed and predicted results both indicate that the occurrence of small MSD cracks substantially reduces the residual strength. Modeling fatigue closure is essential to capture the fracture behavior during the early stable crack growth. Breakage of a tear strap can have a major influence on residual strength prediction.

The significance of parameter uncertainties for the prediction of offshore pile driving noise.

PubMed

Lippert, Tristan; von Estorff, Otto

2014-11-01

Due to the construction of offshore wind farms and its potential effect on marine wildlife, the numerical prediction of pile driving noise over long ranges has recently gained importance. In this contribution, a coupled finite element/wavenumber integration model for noise prediction is presented and validated by measurements. The ocean environment, especially the sea bottom, can only be characterized with limited accuracy in terms of input parameters for the numerical model at hand. Therefore the effect of these parameter uncertainties on the prediction of sound pressure levels (SPLs) in the water column is investigated by a probabilistic approach. In fact, a variation of the bottom material parameters by means of Monte-Carlo simulations shows significant effects on the predicted SPLs. A sensitivity analysis of the model with respect to the single quantities is performed, as well as a global variation. Based on the latter, the probability distribution of the SPLs at an exemplary receiver position is evaluated and compared to measurements. The aim of this procedure is to develop a model to reliably predict an interval for the SPLs, by quantifying the degree of uncertainty of the SPLs with the MC simulations.

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, H. C.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This talk describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, H. C.

2005-01-01

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations.

Building Blocks for Reliable Complex Nonlinear Numerical Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, H. C.; Mansour, Nagi N. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This chapter describes some of the building blocks to ensure a higher level of confidence in the predictability and reliability (PAR) of numerical simulation of multiscale complex nonlinear problems. The focus is on relating PAR of numerical simulations with complex nonlinear phenomena of numerics. To isolate sources of numerical uncertainties, the possible discrepancy between the chosen partial differential equation (PDE) model and the real physics and/or experimental data is set aside. The discussion is restricted to how well numerical schemes can mimic the solution behavior of the underlying PDE model for finite time steps and grid spacings. The situation is complicated by the fact that the available theory for the understanding of nonlinear behavior of numerics is not at a stage to fully analyze the nonlinear Euler and Navier-Stokes equations. The discussion is based on the knowledge gained for nonlinear model problems with known analytical solutions to identify and explain the possible sources and remedies of numerical uncertainties in practical computations. Examples relevant to turbulent flow computations are included.

Effects of the approximations of light propagation on quantitative photoacoustic tomography using two-dimensional photon diffusion equation and linearization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okawa, Shinpei; Hirasawa, Takeshi; Kushibiki, Toshihiro; Ishihara, Miya

2017-12-01

Quantitative photoacoustic tomography (QPAT) employing a light propagation model will play an important role in medical diagnoses by quantifying the concentration of hemoglobin or a contrast agent. However, QPAT by the light propagation model with the three-dimensional (3D) radiative transfer equation (RTE) requires a huge computational load in the iterative forward calculations involved in the updating process to reconstruct the absorption coefficient. The approximations of the light propagation improve the efficiency of the image reconstruction for the QPAT. In this study, we compared the 3D/two-dimensional (2D) photon diffusion equation (PDE) approximating 3D RTE with the Monte Carlo simulation based on 3D RTE. Then, the errors in a 2D PDE-based linearized image reconstruction caused by the approximations were quantitatively demonstrated and discussed in the numerical simulations. It was clearly observed that the approximations affected the reconstructed absorption coefficient. The 2D PDE-based linearized algorithm succeeded in the image reconstruction of the region with a large absorption coefficient in the 3D phantom. The value reconstructed in the phantom experiment agreed with that in the numerical simulation, so that it was validated that the numerical simulation of the image reconstruction predicted the relationship between the true absorption coefficient of the target in the 3D medium and the reconstructed value with the 2D PDE-based linearized algorithm. Moreover, the the true absorption coefficient in 3D medium was estimated from the 2D reconstructed image on the basis of the prediction by the numerical simulation. The estimation was successful in the phantom experiment, although some limitations were revealed.

Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices--How numerical implementation affects the results.

PubMed

Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

2016-01-01

This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed.

Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Heinz

1996-01-01

The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

a Numerical Model for Flue Gas Desulfurization System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sung Joon

The purpose of this work is to develop a reliable numerical model for spray dryer desulfurization systems. The shape of the spray dryer requires that a body fitted orthogonal coordinate system be used for the numerical model. The governing equations are developed in the general orthogonal coordinates and discretized to yield a system of algebraic equations. A turbulence model is also included in the numerical program. A new second order numerical scheme is developed and included in the numerical model. The trajectory approach is used to simulate the flow of the dispersed phase. Two-way coupling phenomena is modeled by this scheme. The absorption of sulfur dioxide into lime slurry droplets is simulated by a model based on gas -phase mass transfer. The program is applied to a typical spray dryer desulfurization system. The results show the capability of the program to predict the sensitivity of system performance to changes in operational parameters.

Investigation of Hill's optical turbulence model by means of direct numerical simulation.

PubMed

Muschinski, Andreas; de Bruyn Kops, Stephen M

2015-12-01

For almost four decades, Hill's "Model 4" [J. Fluid Mech. 88, 541 (1978) has played a central role in research and technology of optical turbulence. Based on Batchelor's generalized Obukhov-Corrsin theory of scalar turbulence, Hill's model predicts the dimensionless function h(κl(0), Pr) that appears in Tatarskii's well-known equation for the 3D refractive-index spectrum in the case of homogeneous and isotropic turbulence, Φn(κ)=0.033C2(n)κ(-11/3) h(κl(0), Pr). Here we investigate Hill's model by comparing numerical solutions of Hill's differential equation with scalar spectra estimated from direct numerical simulation (DNS) output data. Our DNS solves the Navier-Stokes equation for the 3D velocity field and the transport equation for the scalar field on a numerical grid containing 4096(3) grid points. Two independent DNS runs are analyzed: one with the Prandtl number Pr=0.7 and a second run with Pr=1.0 . We find very good agreement between h(κl(0), Pr) estimated from the DNS output data and h(κl(0), Pr) predicted by the Hill model. We find that the height of the Hill bump is 1.79 Pr(1/3), implying that there is no bump if Pr<0.17 . Both the DNS and the Hill model predict that the viscous-diffusive "tail" of h(κl(0), Pr) is exponential, not Gaussian.

Numerically Exact Computer Simulations of Light Scattering by Densely Packed, Random Particulate Media

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dlugach, Janna M.; Mishchenko, Michael I.; Liu, Li; Mackowski, Daniel W.

2011-01-01

Direct computer simulations of electromagnetic scattering by discrete random media have become an active area of research. In this progress review, we summarize and analyze our main results obtained by means of numerically exact computer solutions of the macroscopic Maxwell equations. We consider finite scattering volumes with size parameters in the range, composed of varying numbers of randomly distributed particles with different refractive indices. The main objective of our analysis is to examine whether all backscattering effects predicted by the low-density theory of coherent backscattering (CB) also take place in the case of densely packed media. Based on our extensive numerical data we arrive at the following conclusions: (i) all backscattering effects predicted by the asymptotic theory of CB can also take place in the case of densely packed media; (ii) in the case of very large particle packing density, scattering characteristics of discrete random media can exhibit behavior not predicted by the low-density theories of CB and radiative transfer; (iii) increasing the absorptivity of the constituent particles can either enhance or suppress typical manifestations of CB depending on the particle packing density and the real part of the refractive index. Our numerical data strongly suggest that spectacular backscattering effects identified in laboratory experiments and observed for a class of high-albedo Solar System objects are caused by CB.

Numeric, Agent-based or System Dynamics Model? Which Modeling Approach is the Best for Vast Population Simulation?

PubMed

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-01-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25% of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Experimental and numerical investigation of a packed-bed thermal energy storage device

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Bei; Wang, Yan; Bai, Fengwu; Wang, Zhifeng

2017-06-01

This paper presents a pilot-scale setup built to study a packed bed thermal energy storage device based on ceramic balls randomly poured into a cylindrical tank while using air as heat transfer fluid. Temperature distribution of ceramic balls throughout the packed bed is investigated both experimentally and numerically. Method of characteristic is adopted to improve the numerical computing efficiency, and mesh independence is verified to guarantee the accuracy of numerical solutions and the economy of computing time cost at the same time. Temperature in tests is as high as over 600 °C, and modeling prediction shows good agreements with experimental results under various testing conditions when heat loss is included and thermal properties of air are considered as temperature dependent.

Symbolic Number Comparison Is Not Processed by the Analog Number System: Different Symbolic and Non-symbolic Numerical Distance and Size Effects

PubMed Central

Krajcsi, Attila; Lengyel, Gábor; Kojouharova, Petia

2018-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We test whether symbolic number comparison is handled by an analog noisy system.Analog system model has systematic biases in describing symbolic number comparison.This suggests that symbolic and non-symbolic numbers are processed by different systems. Dominant numerical cognition models suppose that both symbolic and non-symbolic numbers are processed by the Analog Number System (ANS) working according to Weber's law. It was proposed that in a number comparison task the numerical distance and size effects reflect a ratio-based performance which is the sign of the ANS activation. However, increasing number of findings and alternative models propose that symbolic and non-symbolic numbers might be processed by different representations. Importantly, alternative explanations may offer similar predictions to the ANS prediction, therefore, former evidence usually utilizing only the goodness of fit of the ANS prediction is not sufficient to support the ANS account. To test the ANS model more rigorously, a more extensive test is offered here. Several properties of the ANS predictions for the error rates, reaction times, and diffusion model drift rates were systematically analyzed in both non-symbolic dot comparison and symbolic Indo-Arabic comparison tasks. It was consistently found that while the ANS model's prediction is relatively good for the non-symbolic dot comparison, its prediction is poorer and systematically biased for the symbolic Indo-Arabic comparison. We conclude that only non-symbolic comparison is supported by the ANS, and symbolic number comparisons are processed by other representation. PMID:29491845

The construction of life prediction models for the design of Stirling engine heater components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petrovich, A.; Bright, A.; Cronin, M.; Arnold, S.

1983-01-01

The service life of Stirling-engine heater structures of Fe-based high-temperature alloys is predicted using a numerical model based on a linear-damage approach and published test data (engine test data for a Co-based alloy and tensile-test results for both the Co-based and the Fe-based alloys). The operating principle of the automotive Stirling engine is reviewed; the economic and technical factors affecting the choice of heater material are surveyed; the test results are summarized in tables and graphs; the engine environment and automotive duty cycle are characterized; and the modeling procedure is explained. It is found that the statistical scatter of the fatigue properties of the heater components needs to be reduced (by decreasing the porosity of the cast material or employing wrought material in fatigue-prone locations) before the accuracy of life predictions can be improved.

Study of Magnetic Damping Effect on Convection and Solidification Under G-Jitter Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Ben Q.; deGroh, H. C.

2001-01-01

As shown in space flight experiments, g-jitter is a critical issue affecting solidification processing of materials in microgravity. This study aims to provide, through extensive numerical simulations and ground based experiments, an assessment of the use of magnetic fields in combination with microgravity to reduce the g-jitter induced convective flows in space processing systems. Analytical solutions and 2-D and 3-D numerical models for g-jitter driven flows in simple solidification systems with and without the presence of an applied magnetic field have been developed and extensive analyses were carried out. A physical model was also constructed and PIV measurements compared reasonably well with predictions from numerical models. Some key points may be summarized as follows: (1) the amplitude of the oscillating velocity decreases at a rate inversely proportional to the g-jitter frequency and with an increase in the applied magnetic field; (2) the induced flow oscillates at approximately the same frequency as the affecting g-jitter, but out of a phase angle; (3) the phase angle is a complicated function of geometry, applied magnetic field, temperature gradient and frequency; (4) g-jitter driven flows exhibit a complex fluid flow pattern evolving in time; (5) the damping effect is more effective for low frequency flows; and (6) the applied magnetic field helps to reduce the variation of solutal distribution along the solid-liquid interface. Work in progress includes developing numerical models for solidification phenomena with the presence of both g-jitter and magnetic fields and developing a ground-based physical model to verify numerical predictions.

Moist air state above counterflow wet-cooling tower fill based on Merkel, generalised Merkel and Klimanek & Białecky models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyhlík, Tomáš

2017-09-01

The article deals with an evaluation of moist air state above counterflow wet-cooling tower fill. The results based on Klimanek & Białecky model are compared with results of Merkel model and generalised Merkel model. Based on the numerical simulation it is shown that temperature is predicted correctly by using generalised Merkel model in the case of saturated or super-saturated air above the fill, but the temperature is underpredicted in the case of unsaturated moist air above the fill. The classical Merkel model always under predicts temperature above the fill. The density of moist air above the fill, which is calculated using generalised Merkel model, is strongly over predicted in the case of unsaturated moist air above the fill.

Brain Structural Integrity and Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Forecast 6 Year Longitudinal Growth in Children's Numerical Abilities.

PubMed

Evans, Tanya M; Kochalka, John; Ngoon, Tricia J; Wu, Sarah S; Qin, Shaozheng; Battista, Christian; Menon, Vinod

2015-08-19

Early numerical proficiency lays the foundation for acquiring quantitative skills essential in today's technological society. Identification of cognitive and brain markers associated with long-term growth of children's basic numerical computation abilities is therefore of utmost importance. Previous attempts to relate brain structure and function to numerical competency have focused on behavioral measures from a single time point. Thus, little is known about the brain predictors of individual differences in growth trajectories of numerical abilities. Using a longitudinal design, with multimodal imaging and machine-learning algorithms, we investigated whether brain structure and intrinsic connectivity in early childhood are predictive of 6 year outcomes in numerical abilities spanning childhood and adolescence. Gray matter volume at age 8 in distributed brain regions, including the ventrotemporal occipital cortex (VTOC), the posterior parietal cortex, and the prefrontal cortex, predicted longitudinal gains in numerical, but not reading, abilities. Remarkably, intrinsic connectivity analysis revealed that the strength of functional coupling among these regions also predicted gains in numerical abilities, providing novel evidence for a network of brain regions that works in concert to promote numerical skill acquisition. VTOC connectivity with posterior parietal, anterior temporal, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices emerged as the most extensive network predicting individual gains in numerical abilities. Crucially, behavioral measures of mathematics, IQ, working memory, and reading did not predict children's gains in numerical abilities. Our study identifies, for the first time, functional circuits in the human brain that scaffold the development of numerical skills, and highlights potential biomarkers for identifying children at risk for learning difficulties. Children show substantial individual differences in math abilities and ease of math learning. Early numerical abilities provide the foundation for future academic and professional success in an increasingly technological society. Understanding the early identification of poor math skills has therefore taken on great significance. This work provides important new insights into brain structure and connectivity measures that can predict longitudinal growth of children's math skills over a 6 year period, and may eventually aid in the early identification of children who might benefit from targeted interventions. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3511743-08$15.00/0.

Experimental studies of 7-cell dual axis asymmetric cavity for energy recovery linac

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konoplev, Ivan V.; Metodiev, K.; Lancaster, A. J.

High average current, transportable energy recovery linacs (ERLs) can be very attractive tools for a number of applications including next generation high-luminosity, compact light sources. Conventional ERLs are based on an electron beam circulating through the same set of rf cavity cells. This leads to an accumulation of high-order modes inside the cavity cells, resulting in the development of a beam breakup (BBU) instability, unless the beam current is kept below the BBU start current. This limits the maximum current which can be transported through the ERL and hence the intensity of the photon beam generated. It has recently beenmore » proposed that splitting the accelerating and decelerating stages, tuning them separately and coupling them via a resonance coupler can increase the BBU start current. The paper presents the first experimental rf studies of a dual axis 7-cell asymmetric cavity and confirms the properties predicted by the theoretical model. The field structures of the symmetric and asymmetric modes are measured and good agreement with the numerical predictions is demonstrated. The operating mode field flatness was also measured and discussed. A novel approach based on the coupled mode (Fano-like) model has been developed for the description of the cavity eigenmode spectrum and good agreement between analytical theory, numerical predictions and experimental data is shown. Finally, numerical and experimental results observed are analyzed, discussed and a good agreement between theory and experiment is demonstrated.« less

Experimental studies of 7-cell dual axis asymmetric cavity for energy recovery linac

DOE PAGES

Konoplev, Ivan V.; Metodiev, K.; Lancaster, A. J.; ...

2017-10-10

High average current, transportable energy recovery linacs (ERLs) can be very attractive tools for a number of applications including next generation high-luminosity, compact light sources. Conventional ERLs are based on an electron beam circulating through the same set of rf cavity cells. This leads to an accumulation of high-order modes inside the cavity cells, resulting in the development of a beam breakup (BBU) instability, unless the beam current is kept below the BBU start current. This limits the maximum current which can be transported through the ERL and hence the intensity of the photon beam generated. It has recently beenmore » proposed that splitting the accelerating and decelerating stages, tuning them separately and coupling them via a resonance coupler can increase the BBU start current. The paper presents the first experimental rf studies of a dual axis 7-cell asymmetric cavity and confirms the properties predicted by the theoretical model. The field structures of the symmetric and asymmetric modes are measured and good agreement with the numerical predictions is demonstrated. The operating mode field flatness was also measured and discussed. A novel approach based on the coupled mode (Fano-like) model has been developed for the description of the cavity eigenmode spectrum and good agreement between analytical theory, numerical predictions and experimental data is shown. Finally, numerical and experimental results observed are analyzed, discussed and a good agreement between theory and experiment is demonstrated.« less

Experimental and numerical simulation of a rotor/stator interaction event localized on a single blade within an industrial high-pressure compressor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batailly, Alain; Agrapart, Quentin; Millecamps, Antoine; Brunel, Jean-François

2016-08-01

This contribution addresses a confrontation between the experimental simulation of a rotor/stator interaction case initiated by structural contacts with numerical predictions made with an in-house numerical strategy. Contrary to previous studies carried out within the low-pressure compressor of an aircraft engine, this interaction is found to be non-divergent: high amplitudes of vibration are experimentally observed and numerically predicted over a short period of time. An in-depth analysis of experimental data first allows for a precise characterization of the interaction as a rubbing event involving the first torsional mode of a single blade. Numerical results are in good agreement with experimental observations: the critical angular speed, the wear patterns on the casing as well as the blade dynamics are accurately predicted. Through out the article, the in-house numerical strategy is also confronted to another numerical strategy that may be found in the literature for the simulation of rubbing events: key differences are underlined with respect to the prediction of non-linear interaction phenomena.

Multi-step-ahead Method for Wind Speed Prediction Correction Based on Numerical Weather Prediction and Historical Measurement Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Han; Yan, Jie; Liu, Yongqian; Han, Shuang; Li, Li; Zhao, Jing

2017-11-01

Increasing the accuracy of wind speed prediction lays solid foundation to the reliability of wind power forecasting. Most traditional correction methods for wind speed prediction establish the mapping relationship between wind speed of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the historical measurement data (HMD) at the corresponding time slot, which is free of time-dependent impacts of wind speed time series. In this paper, a multi-step-ahead wind speed prediction correction method is proposed with consideration of the passing effects from wind speed at the previous time slot. To this end, the proposed method employs both NWP and HMD as model inputs and the training labels. First, the probabilistic analysis of the NWP deviation for different wind speed bins is calculated to illustrate the inadequacy of the traditional time-independent mapping strategy. Then, support vector machine (SVM) is utilized as example to implement the proposed mapping strategy and to establish the correction model for all the wind speed bins. One Chinese wind farm in northern part of China is taken as example to validate the proposed method. Three benchmark methods of wind speed prediction are used to compare the performance. The results show that the proposed model has the best performance under different time horizons.

Code Validation Studies of High-Enthalpy Flows

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

stage of future hypersonic vehicles. The development and design of such vehicles is aided by the use of experimentation and numerical simulation... numerical predictions and experimental measurements. 3. Summary of Previous Work We have studied extensively hypersonic double-cone flows with and in...the experimental measurements and the numerical predictions. When we accounted for that effect in numerical simulations, and also augmented the

Assessing the capability of continuum and discrete particle methods to simulate gas-solids flow using DNS predictions as a benchmark

DOE PAGES

Lu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaowen; Li, Tingwen; ...

2017-08-12

For this study, gas–solids flow in a three-dimension periodic domain was numerically investigated by direct numerical simulation (DNS), computational fluid dynamic-discrete element method (CFD-DEM) and two-fluid model (TFM). DNS data obtained by finely resolving the flow around every particle are used as a benchmark to assess the validity of coarser DEM and TFM approaches. The CFD-DEM predicts the correct cluster size distribution and under-predicts the macro-scale slip velocity even with a grid size as small as twice the particle diameter. The TFM approach predicts larger cluster size and lower slip velocity with a homogeneous drag correlation. Although the slip velocitymore » can be matched by a simple modification to the drag model, the predicted voidage distribution is still different from DNS: Both CFD-DEM and TFM over-predict the fraction of particles in dense regions and under-predict the fraction of particles in regions of intermediate void fractions. Also, the cluster aspect ratio of DNS is smaller than CFD-DEM and TFM. Since a simple correction to the drag model can predict a correct slip velocity, it is hopeful that drag corrections based on more elaborate theories that consider voidage gradient and particle fluctuations may be able to improve the current predictions of cluster distribution.« less

Assessing the capability of continuum and discrete particle methods to simulate gas-solids flow using DNS predictions as a benchmark

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaowen; Li, Tingwen

For this study, gas–solids flow in a three-dimension periodic domain was numerically investigated by direct numerical simulation (DNS), computational fluid dynamic-discrete element method (CFD-DEM) and two-fluid model (TFM). DNS data obtained by finely resolving the flow around every particle are used as a benchmark to assess the validity of coarser DEM and TFM approaches. The CFD-DEM predicts the correct cluster size distribution and under-predicts the macro-scale slip velocity even with a grid size as small as twice the particle diameter. The TFM approach predicts larger cluster size and lower slip velocity with a homogeneous drag correlation. Although the slip velocitymore » can be matched by a simple modification to the drag model, the predicted voidage distribution is still different from DNS: Both CFD-DEM and TFM over-predict the fraction of particles in dense regions and under-predict the fraction of particles in regions of intermediate void fractions. Also, the cluster aspect ratio of DNS is smaller than CFD-DEM and TFM. Since a simple correction to the drag model can predict a correct slip velocity, it is hopeful that drag corrections based on more elaborate theories that consider voidage gradient and particle fluctuations may be able to improve the current predictions of cluster distribution.« less

Validation of numerical model for cook stove using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Md. Moinul; Hasan, Md. Abdullah Al; Rahman, Md. Mominur; Rahaman, Md. Mashiur

2017-12-01

Biomass fired cook stoves, for many years, have been the main cooking appliance for the rural people of developing countries. Several researches have been carried out to the find efficient stoves. In the present study, numerical model of an improved household cook stove is developed to analyze the heat transfer and flow behavior of gas during operation. The numerical model is validated with the experimental results. Computation of the numerical model is executed the using non-premixed combustion model. Reynold's averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS) equation along with the κ - ɛ model governed the turbulent flow associated within the computed domain. The computational results are in well agreement with the experiment. Developed numerical model can be used to predict the effect of different biomasses on the efficiency of the cook stove.

Numerical investigations of wake interactions of two wind turbines in tandem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yaoru; Wang, Tongguang

2018-05-01

Aerodynamic performance and wake interactions between two wind turbine models under different layouts are investigated numerically using large eddy simulation in conjunction with actuator line method based on the “Blind Test” series wind tunnel experiments from Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Numerical results of the power and thrust coefficients of the two rotors and wake characteristics are in good agreement with the experimental measurements. Extended investigations emphasizing the influence of different layout arrangements on the downstream rotor performance and wake development are conducted. Results show that layout arrangements have great influence on the power and thrust prediction of the downstream turbine.

An Evaluation of a Numerical Prediction Method for Electric Field Strength of Low Frequency Radio Waves based on Wave-Hop Ionospheric Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitauchi, H.; Nozaki, K.; Ito, H.; Kondo, T.; Tsuchiya, S.; Imamura, K.; Nagatsuma, T.; Ishii, M.

2014-12-01

We present our recent efforts on an evaluation of the numerical prediction method of electric field strength for ionospheric propagation of low frequency (LF) radio waves based on a wave-hop propagation theory described in Section 2.4 of Recommendation ITU-R P.684-6 (2012), "Prediction of field strength at frequencies below about 150 kHz," made by International Telecommunication Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R). As part of the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE), we conduct on-board measurements of the electric field strengths and phases of LF 40 kHz and 60 kHz of radio signals (call sign JJY) continuously along both the ways between Tokyo, Japan and Syowa Station, the Japanese Antarctic station, at 69° 00' S, 39° 35' E on East Ongul Island, Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. The measurements are made by a newly developed, highly sensitive receiving system installed on board the Japanese Antarctic research vessel (RV) Shirase. We obtained new data sets of the electric field strength up to approximately 13,000-14,000 km propagation of LF JJY 40 kHz and 60 kHz radio waves by utilizing a newly developed, highly sensitive receiving system, comprised of an orthogonally crossed double-loop antenna and digital-signal-processing lock-in amplifiers, on board RV Shirase during the 55th JARE from November 2013 to April 2014. We have made comparisons between those on-board measurements and the numerical predictions of field strength for long-range propagation of low frequency radio waves based on a wave-hop propagation theory described in Section 2.4 of Recommendation ITU-R P.684-6 (2012) to show that our results qualitatively support the recommended wave-hop theory for the great-circle paths approximately 7,000-8,000 km and 13,000-14,000 km propagations.

Verification of the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luitel, Beda; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-01-01

The goal of this study is the evaluation of the skill of five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC)] in forecasting rainfall from North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs). Analyses focus on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the 2007-2012 period. As reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). We consider forecast lead-times up to five days. To benchmark the skill of these models, we consider rainfall estimates from one radar-based (Stage IV) and four satellite-based [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA, both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); the CPC MORPHing Technique (CMORPH)] rainfall products. Daily and storm total rainfall fields from each of these remote sensing products are compared to the reference data to obtain information about the range of errors we can expect from "observational data." The skill of the NWP models is quantified: (1) by visual examination of the distribution of the errors in storm total rainfall for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution; (2) relative to climatology at the daily scale. Considering these skill metrics, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead-times up to 48 h, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Numerical predictors of arithmetic success in grades 1-6.

PubMed

Lyons, Ian M; Price, Gavin R; Vaessen, Anniek; Blomert, Leo; Ansari, Daniel

2014-09-01

Math relies on mastery and integration of a wide range of simpler numerical processes and concepts. Recent work has identified several numerical competencies that predict variation in math ability. We examined the unique relations between eight basic numerical skills and early arithmetic ability in a large sample (N = 1391) of children across grades 1-6. In grades 1-2, children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of numerical symbols was most predictive of early arithmetic skills. The unique contribution of children's ability to assess ordinality in numerical symbols steadily increased across grades, overtaking all other predictors by grade 6. We found no evidence that children's ability to judge the relative magnitude of approximate, nonsymbolic numbers was uniquely predictive of arithmetic ability at any grade. Overall, symbolic number processing was more predictive of arithmetic ability than nonsymbolic number processing, though the relative importance of symbolic number ability appears to shift from cardinal to ordinal processing. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Droegemeier, Kelvin

1993-01-01

The session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction are reviewed. The recommendations of this group are broken down into three area: modeling and prediction, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management. The current status, modeling and technological recommendations, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management are addressed.

A Self-Organizing Map Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigro, M. A.; Cassano, J. J.; Wille, J.; Bromwich, D. H.; Lazzara, M. A.

2015-12-01

An accurate representation of the atmospheric boundary layer in numerical weather prediction models is important for predicting turbulence and energy exchange in the atmosphere. This study uses two years of observations from a 30-m automatic weather station (AWS) installed on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica to evaluate forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system based on the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) model that uses the MYJ planetary boundary layer scheme and that primarily supports the extensive aircraft operations of the U.S. Antarctic Program. The 30-m AWS has six levels of instrumentation, providing vertical profiles of temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. The observations show the atmospheric boundary layer over the Ross Ice Shelf is stable approximately 80% of the time, indicating the influence of the permanent ice surface in this region. The observations from the AWS are further analyzed using the method of self-organizing maps (SOM) to identify the range of potential temperature profiles that occur over the Ross Ice Shelf. The SOM analysis identified 30 patterns, which range from strong inversions to slightly unstable profiles. The corresponding AMPS forecasts were evaluated for each of the 30 patterns to understand the accuracy of the AMPS near surface layer under different atmospheric conditions. The results indicate that under stable conditions AMPS with MYJ under predicts the inversion strength by as much as 7.4 K over the 30-m depth of the tower and over predicts the near surface wind speed by as much as 3.8 m s-1. Conversely, under slightly unstable conditions, AMPS predicts both the inversion strength and near surface wind speeds with reasonable accuracy.

Navier-Stokes computation of compressible turbulent flows with a second order closure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dingus, C.; Kollmann, W.

1991-01-01

The objective was the development of a complete second order closure for wall bounded flows, including all components of the dissipation rate tensor and a numerical solution procedure for the resulting system of equations. The main topics discussed are the closure of the pressure correlations and the viscous destruction terms in the dissipation rate equations and the numerical solution scheme based on a block-tridiagonal solver for the nine equations required for the prediction of plane or axisymmetric flows.

Numerical realization of the variational method for generating self-trapped beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duque, Erick I.; Lopez-Aguayo, Servando; Malomed, Boris A.

2018-03-01

We introduce a numerical variational method based on the Rayleigh-Ritz optimization principle for predicting two-dimensional self-trapped beams in nonlinear media. This technique overcomes the limitation of the traditional variational approximation in performing analytical Lagrangian integration and differentiation. Approximate soliton solutions of a generalized nonlinear Schr\\"odinger equation are obtained, demonstrating robustness of the beams of various types (fundamental, vortices, multipoles, azimuthons) in the course of their propagation. The algorithm offers possibilities to produce more sophisticated soliton profiles in general nonlinear models.

Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting: A Lagrangian Pixel-Based Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

Sorooshian, T. Bellerby, and G. Huffman, 2010: REFAME: Rain Estimation Using Forward-Adjusted Advection of Microwave Estimates. J. of Hydromet ., 11...precipitation forecasting using information from radar and Numerical Weather Prediction models. J. of Hydromet ., 4(6):1168-1180. Germann, U., and I

Meteorological Processes Affecting Air Quality – Research and Model Development Needs

EPA Science Inventory

Meteorology modeling is an important component of air quality modeling systems that defines the physical and dynamical environment for atmospheric chemistry. The meteorology models used for air quality applications are based on numerical weather prediction models that were devel...

Efficient modeling of phase jitter in dispersion-managed soliton systems.

PubMed

McKinstrie, C J; Xie, C; Lakoba, T I

2002-11-01

The variational method is used to derive correlation equations that model phase jitter in dispersion-managed soliton systems. The predictions of these correlation equations are consistent with numerical solutions of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation on which they are based.

Computational Thermomechanical Modelling of Early-Age Silicate Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vala, J.; Št'astník, S.; Kozák, V.

2009-09-01

Strains and stresses in early-age silicate composites, widely used in civil engineering, especially in fresh concrete mixtures, in addition to those caused by exterior mechanical loads, are results of complicated non-deterministic physical and chemical processes. Their numerical prediction at the macro-scale level requires the non-trivial physical analysis based on the thermodynamic principles, making use of micro-structural information from both theoretical and experimental research. The paper introduces a computational model, based on a nonlinear system of macroscopic equations of evolution, supplied with certain effective material characteristics, coming from the micro-scale analysis, and sketches the algorithm for its numerical analysis.

Anisotropic failure and size effects in periodic honeycomb materials: A gradient-elasticity approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Réthoré, Julien; Dang, Thi Bach Tuyet; Kaltenbrunner, Christine

2017-02-01

This paper proposes a fracture mechanics model for the analysis of crack propagation in periodic honeycomb materials. The model is based on gradient-elasticity which enables us to account for the effect of the material structure at the macroscopic scale. For simulating the propagation of cracks along an arbitrary path, the numerical implementation is elaborated based on an extended finite element method with the required level of continuity. The two main features captured by the model are directionality and size effect. The numerical predictions are consistent with experimental results on honeycomb materials but also with results reported in the literature for microstructurally short cracks in metals.

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 1: Modeling with Method of Characteristics.

PubMed

Porru, Marcella; Özkan, Leyla

2017-05-24

This paper develops a new simulation model for crystal size distribution dynamics in industrial batch crystallization. The work is motivated by the necessity of accurate prediction models for online monitoring purposes. The proposed numerical scheme is able to handle growth, nucleation, and agglomeration kinetics by means of the population balance equation and the method of characteristics. The former offers a detailed description of the solid phase evolution, while the latter provides an accurate and efficient numerical solution. In particular, the accuracy of the prediction of the agglomeration kinetics, which cannot be ignored in industrial crystallization, has been assessed by comparing it with solutions in the literature. The efficiency of the solution has been tested on a simulation of a seeded flash cooling batch process. Since the proposed numerical scheme can accurately simulate the system behavior more than hundred times faster than the batch duration, it is suitable for online applications such as process monitoring tools based on state estimators.

Flow of a Casson fluid through a locally-constricted porous channel: a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amlimohamadi, Haleh; Akram, Maryammosadat; Sadeghy, Kayvan

2016-05-01

Flow of a Casson fluid through a two-dimensional porous channel containing a local constriction is numerically investigated assuming that the resistance offered by the porous medium obeys the Darcy's law. Treating the constriction as another porous medium which obeys the Darcy-Forcheimer model, the equations governing fluid flow in the main channel and the constriction itself are numerically solved using the finite-volume method (FVM) based on the pseudo-transient SIMPLE algorithm. It is shown that an increase in the porosity of the channel decreases the shear stress exerted on the constriction. On the other hand, an increase in the fluid's yield stress is predicted to increase the maximum shear stress experienced by the constriction near its crest. The porosity of the constriction itself is predicted to have a negligible effect on the plaque's shear stress. But, the momentum of the weak flow passing through the constriction is argued to lower the bulk fluid from separating downstream of the constriction.

Comparison of numerical predictions of horizontal nonisothermal jet in a room with three turbulence models -- {kappa}-{epsilon} EVM, ASM, and DSM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murakami, Shuzo; Kato, Shinsuke; Ooka, Ryozo

1994-12-31

A three-dimensional nonisothermal jet in a room is analyzed numerically by the standard {kappa}-{epsilon} eddy viscosity model (EVM) and two second-moment closure models-the algebraic stress model (ASM) (Hossain and Rodi 1982) and the differential stress model (DSM) (Launder et al. 1975). Numerical results given by these turbulence models are compared with experimental results, and the prediction errors existing in the results are examined, thus clarifying the relative structural differences between the {kappa}-{epsilon} EVM and the second-moment closure models. Since the second moment closure models clearly manifest the turbulence structures of the flow field, they are more accurate than the {kappa}-{epsilon}more » EVM. A small difference between the DSM and the ASM -- one based on an inappropriate approximation of the convection and diffusion terms in the Reynolds stress transport equations in the ASM -- is also observed.« less

Monitoring of Batch Industrial Crystallization with Growth, Nucleation, and Agglomeration. Part 1: Modeling with Method of Characteristics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This paper develops a new simulation model for crystal size distribution dynamics in industrial batch crystallization. The work is motivated by the necessity of accurate prediction models for online monitoring purposes. The proposed numerical scheme is able to handle growth, nucleation, and agglomeration kinetics by means of the population balance equation and the method of characteristics. The former offers a detailed description of the solid phase evolution, while the latter provides an accurate and efficient numerical solution. In particular, the accuracy of the prediction of the agglomeration kinetics, which cannot be ignored in industrial crystallization, has been assessed by comparing it with solutions in the literature. The efficiency of the solution has been tested on a simulation of a seeded flash cooling batch process. Since the proposed numerical scheme can accurately simulate the system behavior more than hundred times faster than the batch duration, it is suitable for online applications such as process monitoring tools based on state estimators. PMID:28603342

A stochastic vortex structure method for interacting particles in turbulent shear flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dizaji, Farzad F.; Marshall, Jeffrey S.; Grant, John R.

2018-01-01

In a recent study, we have proposed a new synthetic turbulence method based on stochastic vortex structures (SVSs), and we have demonstrated that this method can accurately predict particle transport, collision, and agglomeration in homogeneous, isotropic turbulence in comparison to direct numerical simulation results. The current paper extends the SVS method to non-homogeneous, anisotropic turbulence. The key element of this extension is a new inversion procedure, by which the vortex initial orientation can be set so as to generate a prescribed Reynolds stress field. After validating this inversion procedure for simple problems, we apply the SVS method to the problem of interacting particle transport by a turbulent planar jet. Measures of the turbulent flow and of particle dispersion, clustering, and collision obtained by the new SVS simulations are shown to compare well with direct numerical simulation results. The influence of different numerical parameters, such as number of vortices and vortex lifetime, on the accuracy of the SVS predictions is also examined.

A quantitative comparison of precipitation forecasts between the storm-scale numerical weather prediction model and auto-nowcast system in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gaili; Yang, Ji; Wang, Dan; Liu, Liping

2016-11-01

Extrapolation techniques and storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are two primary approaches for short-term precipitation forecasts. The primary objective of this study is to verify precipitation forecasts and compare the performances of two nowcasting schemes: a Beijing Auto-Nowcast system (BJ-ANC) based on extrapolation techniques and a storm-scale NWP model called the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The verification and comparison takes into account six heavy precipitation events that occurred in the summer of 2014 and 2015 in Jiangsu, China. The forecast performances of the two schemes were evaluated for the next 6 h at 1-h intervals using gridpoint-based measures of critical success index, bias, index of agreement, root mean square error, and using an object-based verification method called Structure-Amplitude-Location (SAL) score. Regarding gridpoint-based measures, BJ-ANC outperforms ARPS at first, but then the forecast accuracy decreases rapidly with lead time and performs worse than ARPS after 4-5 h of the initial forecast. Regarding the object-based verification method, most forecasts produced by BJ-ANC focus on the center of the diagram at the 1-h lead time and indicate high-quality forecasts. As the lead time increases, BJ-ANC overestimates precipitation amount and produces widespread precipitation, especially at a 6-h lead time. The ARPS model overestimates precipitation at all lead times, particularly at first.

Numerical Modeling of Flow Control in a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Diffuser at Transonic Mach Numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allan Brian G.; Owens, Lewis, R.

2006-01-01

This paper will investigate the validation of a NASA developed, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset (S-shaped) inlet in transonic flow with passive and active flow control devices as well as the baseline case. Numerical simulations are compared to wind tunnel results of a BLI inlet conducted at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Comparisons of inlet flow distortion, pressure recovery, and inlet wall pressures are performed. The numerical simulations are compared to the BLI inlet data at a freestream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of approximately 2 million based on the length of the fan-face diameter. The numerical simulations with and without wind tunnel walls are performed, quantifying effects of the tunnel walls on the BLI inlet flow measurements. The wind tunnel test evaluated several different combinations of jet locations and mass flow rates as well as a vortex generator (VG) vane case. The numerical simulations will be performed on a single jet configuration for varying actuator mass flow rates at a fix inlet mass flow condition. Validation of the numerical simulations for the VG vane case will also be performed for varying inlet mass flow rates. Overall, the numerical simulations were able to predict the baseline circumferential flow distortion, DPCPavg, very well for comparisons made within the designed operating range of the BLI inlet. However the CFD simulations did predict a total pressure recovery that was 0.01 lower than the experiment. Numerical simulations of the baseline inlet flow also showed good agreement with the experimental inlet centerline surface pressures. The vane case showed that the CFD predicted the correct trends in the circumferential distortion for varying inlet mass flow but had a distortion level that was nearly twice as large as the experiment. Comparison to circumferential distortion measurements for a 15 deg clocked 40 probe rake indicated that the circumferential distortion levels are very sensitive to the symmetry of the flow and that a miss alignment of the vanes in the experiment could have resulted in this difference. The numerical simulations of the BLI inlet with jets showed good agreement with the circumferential inlet distortion levels for a range of jet actuator mass flow ratios at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. The CFD simulations for the jet case also predicted an average total pressure recovery that was 0.01 lower than the experiment as was seen in the baseline. Comparison of the flow features the jet case revealed that the CFD predicted a much larger vortex at the engine fan-face when compare to the experiment.

Method of moments comparison for soot population modeling in turbulent combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chong, Shao Teng; Im, Hong; Raman, Venkat

2017-11-01

Representation of soot population is an important component in the efficient computational prediction of particulate emissions. However, there are a number of moments-based techniques with varying numerical complexity. In the past, development of such methods has been principally carried out on canonical laminar and 0-D flows. However, their applications in realistic solvers developed for turbulent combustion may face challenges from turbulence closure to selection of moment sets. In this work, the accuracy and relative computational expense of a few common soot method of moments are tested in canonical turbulent flames for different configurations. Large eddy simulation (LES) will be used as the turbulence modeling framework. In grid-filtered LES, the interaction of numerical and modeling errors is a first-order problem that can undermine the accuracy of soot predictions. In the past, special moments-based methods for solvers that transport high frequency content fluid with ability to reconstruct particle size distribution have been developed. Here, a similar analysis will be carried out for the moment-based soot modeling approaches above. Specifically, realizability of moments methods with nonlinear advection schemes will be discussed.

Relationships between the decoupled and coupled transfer functions: Theoretical studies and experimental validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zengwei; Zhu, Ping; Liu, Zhao

2018-01-01

A generalized method for predicting the decoupled transfer functions based on in-situ transfer functions is proposed. The method allows predicting the decoupled transfer functions using coupled transfer functions, without disassembling the system. Two ways to derive relationships between the decoupled and coupled transfer functions are presented. Issues related to immeasurability of coupled transfer functions are also discussed. The proposed method is validated by numerical and experimental case studies.

Review of numerical models to predict cooling tower performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, B.M.; Nomura, K.K.; Bartz, J.A.

1987-01-01

Four state-of-the-art computer models developed to predict the thermal performance of evaporative cooling towers are summarized. The formulation of these models, STAR and TEFERI (developed in Europe) and FACTS and VERA2D (developed in the U.S.), is summarized. A fifth code, based on Merkel analysis, is also discussed. Principal features of the codes, computation time and storage requirements are described. A discussion of model validation is also provided.

Numeric model to predict the location of market demand and economic order quantity for retailers of supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fradinata, Edy; Marli Kesuma, Zurnila

2018-05-01

Polynomials and Spline regression are the numeric model where they used to obtain the performance of methods, distance relationship models for cement retailers in Banda Aceh, predicts the market area for retailers and the economic order quantity (EOQ). These numeric models have their difference accuracy for measuring the mean square error (MSE). The distance relationships between retailers are to identify the density of retailers in the town. The dataset is collected from the sales of cement retailer with a global positioning system (GPS). The sales dataset is plotted of its characteristic to obtain the goodness of fitted quadratic, cubic, and fourth polynomial methods. On the real sales dataset, polynomials are used the behavior relationship x-abscissa and y-ordinate to obtain the models. This research obtains some advantages such as; the four models from the methods are useful for predicting the market area for the retailer in the competitiveness, the comparison of the performance of the methods, the distance of the relationship between retailers, and at last the inventory policy based on economic order quantity. The results, the high-density retail relationship areas indicate that the growing population with the construction project. The spline is better than quadratic, cubic, and four polynomials in predicting the points indicating of small MSE. The inventory policy usages the periodic review policy type.

URANS simulations of the tip-leakage cavitating flow with verification and validation procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Huai-yu; Long, Xin-ping; Liang, Yun-zhi; Long, Yun; Ji, Bin

2018-04-01

In the present paper, the Vortex Identified Zwart-Gerber-Belamri (VIZGB) cavitation model coupled with the SST-CC turbulence model is used to investigate the unsteady tip-leakage cavitating flow induced by a NACA0009 hydrofoil. A qualitative comparison between the numerical and experimental results is made. In order to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical data, the verification and validation (V&V) procedures are used in the present paper. Errors of numerical results are estimated with seven error estimators based on the Richardson extrapolation method. It is shown that though a strict validation cannot be achieved, a reasonable prediction of the gross characteristics of the tip-leakage cavitating flow can be obtained. Based on the numerical results, the influence of the cavitation on the tip-leakage vortex (TLV) is discussed, which indicates that the cavitation accelerates the fusion of the TLV and the tip-separation vortex (TSV). Moreover, the trajectory of the TLV, when the cavitation occurs, is close to the side wall.

A First Step towards a Clinical Decision Support System for Post-traumatic Stress Disorders.

PubMed

Ma, Sisi; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R; Wang, Xuya; Fenyö, David; Shalev, Arieh Y

2016-01-01

PTSD is distressful and debilitating, following a non-remitting course in about 10% to 20% of trauma survivors. Numerous risk indicators of PTSD have been identified, but individual level prediction remains elusive. As an effort to bridge the gap between scientific discovery and practical application, we designed and implemented a clinical decision support pipeline to provide clinically relevant recommendation for trauma survivors. To meet the specific challenge of early prediction, this work uses data obtained within ten days of a traumatic event. The pipeline creates personalized predictive model for each individual, and computes quality metrics for each predictive model. Clinical recommendations are made based on both the prediction of the model and its quality, thus avoiding making potentially detrimental recommendations based on insufficient information or suboptimal model. The current pipeline outperforms the acute stress disorder, a commonly used clinical risk factor for PTSD development, both in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

The unified acoustic and aerodynamic prediction theory of advanced propellers in the time domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farassat, F.

1984-01-01

This paper presents some numerical results for the noise of an advanced supersonic propeller based on a formulation published last year. This formulation was derived to overcome some of the practical numerical difficulties associated with other acoustic formulations. The approach is based on the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation and time domain analysis is used. To illustrate the method of solution, a model problem in three dimensions and based on the Laplace equation is solved. A brief sketch of derivation of the acoustic formula is then given. Another model problem is used to verify validity of the acoustic formulation. A recent singular integral equation for aerodynamic applications derived from the acoustic formula is also presented here.

Morphing continuum theory for turbulence: Theory, computation, and visualization.

PubMed

Chen, James

2017-10-01

A high order morphing continuum theory (MCT) is introduced to model highly compressible turbulence. The theory is formulated under the rigorous framework of rational continuum mechanics. A set of linear constitutive equations and balance laws are deduced and presented from the Coleman-Noll procedure and Onsager's reciprocal relations. The governing equations are then arranged in conservation form and solved through the finite volume method with a second-order Lax-Friedrichs scheme for shock preservation. A numerical example of transonic flow over a three-dimensional bump is presented using MCT and the finite volume method. The comparison shows that MCT-based direct numerical simulation (DNS) provides a better prediction than Navier-Stokes (NS)-based DNS with less than 10% of the mesh number when compared with experiments. A MCT-based and frame-indifferent Q criterion is also derived to show the coherent eddy structure of the downstream turbulence in the numerical example. It should be emphasized that unlike the NS-based Q criterion, the MCT-based Q criterion is objective without the limitation of Galilean invariance.

Numerical study of base pressure characteristic curve for a four-engine clustered nozzle configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ten-See

1993-07-01

Excessive base heating has been a problem for many launch vehicles. For certain designs such as the direct dump of turbine exhaust in the nozzle section and at the nozzle lip of the Space Transportation Systems Engine (STME), the potential burning of the turbine exhaust in the base region has caused tremendous concern. Two conventional approaches have been considered for predicting the base environment: (1) empirical approach, and (2) experimental approach. The empirical approach uses a combination of data correlations and semi-theoretical calculations. It works best for linear problems, simple physics and geometry. However, it is highly suspicious when complex geometry and flow physics are involved, especially when the subject is out of historical database. The experimental approach is often used to establish database for engineering analysis. However, it is qualitative at best for base flow problems. Other criticisms include the inability to simulate forebody boundary layer correctly, the interference effect from tunnel walls, and the inability to scale all pertinent parameters. Furthermore, there is a contention that the information extrapolated from subscale tests with combustion is not conservative. One potential alternative to the conventional methods is computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which has none of the above restrictions and is becoming more feasible due to maturing algorithms and advancing computer technology. It provides more details of the flowfield and is only limited by computer resources. However, it has its share of criticisms as a predictive tool for base environment. One major concern is that CFD has not been extensively tested for base flow problems. It is therefore imperative that CFD be assessed and benchmarked satisfactorily for base flows. In this study, the turbulent base flowfield of a experimental investigation for a four-engine clustered nozzle is numerically benchmarked using a pressure based CFD method. Since the cold air was the medium, accurate prediction of the base pressure distributions at high altitudes is the primary goal. Other factors which may influence the numerical results such as the effects of grid density, turbulence model, differencing scheme, and boundary conditions are also being addressed.

Numerical Study of Base Pressure Characteristic Curve for a Four-Engine Clustered Nozzle Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Ten-See

1993-01-01

Excessive base heating has been a problem for many launch vehicles. For certain designs such as the direct dump of turbine exhaust in the nozzle section and at the nozzle lip of the Space Transportation Systems Engine (STME), the potential burning of the turbine exhaust in the base region has caused tremendous concern. Two conventional approaches have been considered for predicting the base environment: (1) empirical approach, and (2) experimental approach. The empirical approach uses a combination of data correlations and semi-theoretical calculations. It works best for linear problems, simple physics and geometry. However, it is highly suspicious when complex geometry and flow physics are involved, especially when the subject is out of historical database. The experimental approach is often used to establish database for engineering analysis. However, it is qualitative at best for base flow problems. Other criticisms include the inability to simulate forebody boundary layer correctly, the interference effect from tunnel walls, and the inability to scale all pertinent parameters. Furthermore, there is a contention that the information extrapolated from subscale tests with combustion is not conservative. One potential alternative to the conventional methods is computational fluid dynamics (CFD), which has none of the above restrictions and is becoming more feasible due to maturing algorithms and advancing computer technology. It provides more details of the flowfield and is only limited by computer resources. However, it has its share of criticisms as a predictive tool for base environment. One major concern is that CFD has not been extensively tested for base flow problems. It is therefore imperative that CFD be assessed and benchmarked satisfactorily for base flows. In this study, the turbulent base flowfield of a experimental investigation for a four-engine clustered nozzle is numerically benchmarked using a pressure based CFD method. Since the cold air was the medium, accurate prediction of the base pressure distributions at high altitudes is the primary goal. Other factors which may influence the numerical results such as the effects of grid density, turbulence model, differencing scheme, and boundary conditions are also being addressed. Preliminary results of the computed base pressure agreed reasonably well with that of the measurement. Basic base flow features such as the reverse jet, wall jet, recompression shock, and static pressure field in plane of impingement have been captured.

DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF AN INTEGRATED MODEL TO FACILITATE RISK-BASED CORRECTIVE ACTION AT SUPERFUND SITES

EPA Science Inventory

We developed a numerical model to predict chemical concentrations in indoor environments resulting from soil vapor intrusion and volatilization from groundwater. The model, which integrates new and existing algorithms for chemical fate and transport, was originally...

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

FE-simulation of hot forging with an integrated heat treatment with the objective of residual stress prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Bernd-Arno; Chugreeva, Anna; Chugreev, Alexander

2018-05-01

Hot forming as a coupled thermo-mechanical process comprises numerous material phenomena with a corresponding impact on the material behavior during and after the forming process as well as on the final component performance. In this context, a realistic FE-simulation requires reliable mathematical models as well as detailed thermo-mechanical material data. This paper presents experimental and numerical results focused on the FE-based simulation of a hot forging process with a subsequent heat treatment step aiming at the prediction of the final mechanical properties and residual stress state in the forged component made of low alloy CrMo-steel DIN 42CrMo4. For this purpose, hot forging experiments of connecting rod geometry with a corresponding metallographic analysis and x-ray residual stress measurements have been carried out. For the coupled thermo-mechanical-metallurgical FE-simulations, a special user-defined material model based on the additive strain decomposition method and implemented in Simufact Forming via MSC.Marc solver features has been used.

A Numerical Method for Simulating the Microscopic Damage Evolution in Composites Under Uniaxial Transverse Tension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhi, Jie; Zhao, Libin; Zhang, Jianyu; Liu, Zhanli

2016-06-01

In this paper, a new numerical method that combines a surface-based cohesive model and extended finite element method (XFEM) without predefining the crack paths is presented to simulate the microscopic damage evolution in composites under uniaxial transverse tension. The proposed method is verified to accurately capture the crack kinking into the matrix after fiber/matrix debonding. A statistical representative volume element (SRVE) under periodic boundary conditions is used to approximate the microstructure of the composites. The interface parameters of the cohesive models are investigated, in which the initial interface stiffness has a great effect on the predictions of the fiber/matrix debonding. The detailed debonding states of SRVE with strong and weak interfaces are compared based on the surface-based and element-based cohesive models. The mechanism of damage in composites under transverse tension is described as the appearance of the interface cracks and their induced matrix micro-cracking, both of which coalesce into transversal macro-cracks. Good agreement is found between the predictions of the model and the in situ experimental observations, demonstrating the efficiency of the presented model for simulating the microscopic damage evolution in composites.

A Research Program for Improving Heat Transfer Prediction Capability for the Laminar to Turbulent Transition Region of Turbine Vanes/Blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Frederick F.

2007-01-01

A program sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the investigation of the heat transfer in the transition region of turbine vanes and blades with the object of improving the capability for predicting heat transfer is described,. The accurate prediction of gas-side heat transfer is important to the determination of turbine longevity, engine performance and developmental costs. The need for accurate predictions will become greater as the operating temperatures and stage loading levels of advanced turbine engines increase. The present methods for predicting transition shear stress and heat transfer on turbine blades are based on incomplete knowledge and are largely empirical. To meet the objectives of the NASA program, a team approach consisting of researchers from government, universities, a research institute, and a small business is presented. The research is divided into areas of experimentation, direct numerical simulation (DNS) and turbulence modeling. A summary of the results to date is given for the above research areas in a high-disturbance environment (bypass transition) with a discussion of the model development necessary for use in numerical codes.

Impact of Cloud Analysis on Numerical Weather Prediction in the Galician Region of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souto, M. J.; Balseiro, C. F.; Pérez-Muñuzuri, V.; Xue, M.; Brewster, K.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is applied to operational numerical weather prediction in Galicia, northwest Spain. The model is run daily for 72-h forecasts at a 10-km horizontal spacing. Located on the northwest coast of Spain and influenced by the Atlantic weather systems, Galicia has a high percentage (nearly 50%) of rainy days per year. For these reasons, the precipitation processes and the initialization of moisture and cloud fields are very important. Even though the ARPS model has a sophisticated data analysis system (`ADAS') that includes a 3D cloud analysis package, because of operational constraints, the current forecast starts from the 12-h forecast of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Aviation Model (AVN). Still, procedures from the ADAS cloud analysis are being used to construct the cloud fields based on AVN data and then are applied to initialize the microphysical variables in ARPS. Comparisons of the ARPS predictions with local observations show that ARPS can predict very well both the daily total precipitation and its spatial distribution. ARPS also shows skill in predicting heavy rains and high winds, as observed during November 2000, and especially in the prediction of the 5 November 2000 storm that caused widespread wind and rain damage in Galicia. It is demonstrated that the cloud analysis contributes to the success of the precipitation forecasts.

A Three-Dimensional Linearized Unsteady Euler Analysis for Turbomachinery Blade Rows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montgomery, Matthew D.; Verdon, Joseph M.

1996-01-01

A three-dimensional, linearized, Euler analysis is being developed to provide an efficient unsteady aerodynamic analysis that can be used to predict the aeroelastic and aeroacoustic response characteristics of axial-flow turbomachinery blading. The field equations and boundary conditions needed to describe nonlinear and linearized inviscid unsteady flows through a blade row operating within a cylindrical annular duct are presented. In addition, a numerical model for linearized inviscid unsteady flow, which is based upon an existing nonlinear, implicit, wave-split, finite volume analysis, is described. These aerodynamic and numerical models have been implemented into an unsteady flow code, called LINFLUX. A preliminary version of the LINFLUX code is applied herein to selected, benchmark three-dimensional, subsonic, unsteady flows, to illustrate its current capabilities and to uncover existing problems and deficiencies. The numerical results indicate that good progress has been made toward developing a reliable and useful three-dimensional prediction capability. However, some problems, associated with the implementation of an unsteady displacement field and numerical errors near solid boundaries, still exist. Also, accurate far-field conditions must be incorporated into the FINFLUX analysis, so that this analysis can be applied to unsteady flows driven be external aerodynamic excitations.

Self-energy-modified Poisson-Nernst-Planck equations: WKB approximation and finite-difference approaches.

PubMed

Xu, Zhenli; Ma, Manman; Liu, Pei

2014-07-01

We propose a modified Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) model to investigate charge transport in electrolytes of inhomogeneous dielectric environment. The model includes the ionic polarization due to the dielectric inhomogeneity and the ion-ion correlation. This is achieved by the self energy of test ions through solving a generalized Debye-Hückel (DH) equation. We develop numerical methods for the system composed of the PNP and DH equations. Particularly, toward the numerical challenge of solving the high-dimensional DH equation, we developed an analytical WKB approximation and a numerical approach based on the selective inversion of sparse matrices. The model and numerical methods are validated by simulating the charge diffusion in electrolytes between two electrodes, for which effects of dielectrics and correlation are investigated by comparing the results with the prediction by the classical PNP theory. We find that, at the length scale of the interface separation comparable to the Bjerrum length, the results of the modified equations are significantly different from the classical PNP predictions mostly due to the dielectric effect. It is also shown that when the ion self energy is in weak or mediate strength, the WKB approximation presents a high accuracy, compared to precise finite-difference results.

Numerical Modeling of Cavitating Venturi: A Flow Control Element of Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, Alok; Saxon, Jeff (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In a propulsion system, the propellant flow and mixture ratio could be controlled either by variable area flow control valves or by passive flow control elements such as cavitating venturies. Cavitating venturies maintain constant propellant flowrate for fixed inlet conditions (pressure and temperature) and wide range of outlet pressures, thereby maintain constant, engine thrust and mixture ratio. The flowrate through the venturi reaches a constant value and becomes independent of outlet pressure when the pressure at throat becomes equal to vapor pressure. In order to develop a numerical model of propulsion system, it is necessary to model cavitating venturies in propellant feed systems. This paper presents a finite volume model of flow network of a cavitating venturi. The venturi was discretized into a number of control volumes and mass, momentum and energy conservation equations in each control volume are simultaneously solved to calculate one-dimensional pressure, density, and flowrate and temperature distribution. The numerical model predicts cavitations at the throat when outlet pressure was gradually reduced. Once cavitation starts, with further reduction of downstream pressure, no change in flowrate is found. The numerical predictions have been compared with test data and empirical equation based on Bernoulli's equation.

Dipole Alignment in Rotating MHD Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shebalin, John V.; Fu, Terry; Morin, Lee

2012-01-01

We present numerical results from long-term CPU and GPU simulations of rotating, homogeneous, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, and discuss their connection to the spherically bounded case. We compare our numerical results with a statistical theory of geodynamo action that has evolved from the absolute equilibrium ensemble theory of ideal MHD turbulence, which is based on the ideal MHD invariants are energy, cross helicity and magnetic helicity. However, for rotating MHD turbulence, the cross helicity is no longer an exact invariant, although rms cross helicity becomes quasistationary during an ideal MHD simulation. This and the anisotropy imposed by rotation suggests an ansatz in which an effective, nonzero value of cross helicity is assigned to axisymmetric modes and zero cross helicity to non-axisymmetric modes. This hybrid statistics predicts a large-scale quasistationary magnetic field due to broken ergodicity , as well as dipole vector alignment with the rotation axis, both of which are observed numerically. We find that only a relatively small value of effective cross helicity leads to the prediction of a dipole moment vector that is closely aligned (less than 10 degrees) with the rotation axis. We also discuss the effect of initial conditions, dissipation and grid size on the numerical simulations and statistical theory.

From molecule to solid: The prediction of organic crystal structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzyabchenko, A. V.

2008-10-01

A method for predicting the structure of a molecular crystal based on the systematic search for a global potential energy minimum is considered. The method takes into account unequal occurrences of the structural classes of organic crystals and symmetry of the multidimensional configuration space. The programs of global minimization PMC, comparison of crystal structures CRYCOM, and approximation to the distributions of the electrostatic potentials of molecules FitMEP are presented as tools for numerically solving the problem. Examples of predicted structures substantiated experimentally and the experience of author’s participation in international tests of crystal structure prediction organized by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Center (Cambridge, UK) are considered.

Empirical prediction of peak pressure levels in anthropogenic impulsive noise. Part I: Airgun arrays signals.

PubMed

Galindo-Romero, Marta; Lippert, Tristan; Gavrilov, Alexander

2015-12-01

This paper presents an empirical linear equation to predict peak pressure level of anthropogenic impulsive signals based on its correlation with the sound exposure level. The regression coefficients are shown to be weakly dependent on the environmental characteristics but governed by the source type and parameters. The equation can be applied to values of the sound exposure level predicted with a numerical model, which provides a significant improvement in the prediction of the peak pressure level. Part I presents the analysis for airgun arrays signals, and Part II considers the application of the empirical equation to offshore impact piling noise.

Numerical method to compute acoustic scattering effect of a moving source.

PubMed

Song, Hao; Yi, Mingxu; Huang, Jun; Pan, Yalin; Liu, Dawei

2016-01-01

In this paper, the aerodynamic characteristic of a ducted tail rotor in hover has been numerically studied using CFD method. An analytical time domain formulation based on Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) equation is derived for the prediction of the acoustic velocity field and used as Neumann boundary condition on a rigid scattering surface. In order to predict the aerodynamic noise, a hybrid method combing computational aeroacoustics with an acoustic thin-body boundary element method has been proposed. The aerodynamic results and the calculated sound pressure levels (SPLs) are compared with the known method for validation. Simulation results show that the duct can change the value of SPLs and the sound directivity. Compared with the isolate tail rotor, the SPLs of the ducted tail rotor are smaller at certain azimuth.

Numerical Analysis of the Elastic Properties of 3D Needled Carbon/Carbon Composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Y.; Yan, Y.; Li, X.; Guo, F.

2017-09-01

Based on the observation of microstructures of 3D needled carbon/carbon (C/C) composites, a model of their representative volume element (RVE) considering the true distribution of fibers is established. Using the theories of mesoscopic mechanics and introducing periodic boundary conditions for displacements, their elastic properties, with account of porosity, are determined by finite-element methods. Quasi-static tensile tests were carried out, and the numerical predictions were found to be in good agreement with test results. This means that the RVE model of 3D needled C/C composites can predict their elastic properties efficiently. The effects of needling density, radius of needled fibers, and thickness ratio of a short-cut fiber web and a weftless ply on the elastic constants of the composites are analyzed.

Finite element based simulation on friction stud welding of metal matrix composites to steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynes, N. Rajesh Jesudoss; Tharmaraj, R.; Velu, P. Shenbaga; Kumar, R.

2016-05-01

Friction welding is a solid state joining technique used for joining similar and dissimilar materials with high integrity. This new technique is being successfully applied to the aerospace, automobile, and ship building industries, and is attracting more and more research interest. The quality of Friction Stud Welded joints depends on the frictional heat generated at the interface. Hence, thermal analysis on friction stud welding of stainless steel (AISI 304) and aluminium silicon carbide (AlSiC) combination is carried out in the present work. In this study, numerical simulation is carried out using ANSYS software and the temperature profiles are predicted at various increments of time. The developed numerical model is found to be adequate to predict temperature distribution of friction stud weld aluminium silicon carbide/stainless steel joints.

Lagrangian methods for blood damage estimation in cardiovascular devices - How numerical implementation affects the results

PubMed Central

Marom, Gil; Bluestein, Danny

2016-01-01

Summary This paper evaluated the influence of various numerical implementation assumptions on predicting blood damage in cardiovascular devices using Lagrangian methods with Eulerian computational fluid dynamics. The implementation assumptions that were tested included various seeding patterns, stochastic walk model, and simplified trajectory calculations with pathlines. Post processing implementation options that were evaluated included single passage and repeated passages stress accumulation and time averaging. This study demonstrated that the implementation assumptions can significantly affect the resulting stress accumulation, i.e., the blood damage model predictions. Careful considerations should be taken in the use of Lagrangian models. Ultimately, the appropriate assumptions should be considered based the physics of the specific case and sensitivity analysis, similar to the ones presented here, should be employed. PMID:26679833

Unsteady Fast Random Particle Mesh method for efficient prediction of tonal and broadband noises of a centrifugal fan unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, Seung; Cheong, Cheolung; Kim, Taehoon

2015-09-01

In this study, efficient numerical method is proposed for predicting tonal and broadband noises of a centrifugal fan unit. The proposed method is based on Hybrid Computational Aero-Acoustic (H-CAA) techniques combined with Unsteady Fast Random Particle Mesh (U-FRPM) method. The U-FRPM method is developed by extending the FRPM method proposed by Ewert et al. and is utilized to synthesize turbulence flow field from unsteady RANS solutions. The H-CAA technique combined with U-FRPM method is applied to predict broadband as well as tonal noises of a centrifugal fan unit in a household refrigerator. Firstly, unsteady flow field driven by a rotating fan is computed by solving the RANS equations with Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) techniques. Main source regions around the rotating fan are identified by examining the computed flow fields. Then, turbulence flow fields in the main source regions are synthesized by applying the U-FRPM method. The acoustic analogy is applied to model acoustic sources in the main source regions. Finally, the centrifugal fan noise is predicted by feeding the modeled acoustic sources into an acoustic solver based on the Boundary Element Method (BEM). The sound spectral levels predicted using the current numerical method show good agreements with the measured spectra at the Blade Pass Frequencies (BPFs) as well as in the high frequency range. On the more, the present method enables quantitative assessment of relative contributions of identified source regions to the sound field by comparing predicted sound pressure spectrum due to modeled sources.

Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

2016-04-01

Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more accurate measure of forecast uncertainty that could result in better decision-making. It offers different level of abstractions to help with the recalibration of the RAR method. It also has an inspection tool that displays the selected analogs, their observations and statistical data. It gives the users access to inner parts of the method, unveiling hidden information. References [GR05] GNEITING T., RAFTERY A. E.: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science 310, 5746, 248-249, 2005. [KAL03] KALNAY E.: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability. Cambridge University Press, 2003. [PH06] PALMER T., HAGEDORN R.: Predictability of weather and climate. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [HW06] HAMILL T. M., WHITAKER J. S.: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application. Monthly Weather Review 134, 11, 3209-3229, 2006. [DE06] DEITRICK S., EDSALL R.: The influence of uncertainty visualization on decision making: An empirical evaluation. Springer, 2006. [KMS08] KEIM D. A., MANSMANN F., SCHNEIDEWIND J., THOMAS J., ZIEGLER H.: Visual analytics: Scope and challenges. Springer, 2008.

Numerical solution of non-linear dual-phase-lag bioheat transfer equation within skin tissues.

PubMed

Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, P; Rai, K N

2017-11-01

This paper deals with numerical modeling and simulation of heat transfer in skin tissues using non-linear dual-phase-lag (DPL) bioheat transfer model under periodic heat flux boundary condition. The blood perfusion is assumed temperature-dependent which results in non-linear DPL bioheat transfer model in order to predict more accurate results. A numerical method of line which is based on finite difference and Runge-Kutta (4,5) schemes, is used to solve the present non-linear problem. Under specific case, the exact solution has been obtained and compared with the present numerical scheme, and we found that those are in good agreement. A comparison based on model selection criterion (AIC) has been made among non-linear DPL models when the variation of blood perfusion rate with temperature is of constant, linear and exponential type with the experimental data and it has been found that non-linear DPL model with exponential variation of blood perfusion rate is closest to the experimental data. In addition, it is found that due to absence of phase-lag phenomena in Pennes bioheat transfer model, it achieves steady state more quickly and always predict higher temperature than thermal and DPL non-linear models. The effect of coefficient of blood perfusion rate, dimensionless heating frequency and Kirchoff number on dimensionless temperature distribution has also been analyzed. The whole analysis is presented in dimensionless form. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

U.S. Army Armament Research, Development and Engineering Center Grain Evaluation Software to Numerically Predict Linear Burn Regression for Solid Propellant Grain Geometries

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

ENGINEERING CENTER GRAIN EVALUATION SOFTWARE TO NUMERICALLY PREDICT LINEAR BURN REGRESSION FOR SOLID PROPELLANT GRAIN GEOMETRIES Brian...author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other documentation...U.S. ARMY ARMAMENT RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING CENTER GRAIN EVALUATION SOFTWARE TO NUMERICALLY PREDICT LINEAR BURN REGRESSION FOR SOLID

The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction.

PubMed

Bauer, Peter; Thorpe, Alan; Brunet, Gilbert

2015-09-03

Advances in numerical weather prediction represent a quiet revolution because they have resulted from a steady accumulation of scientific knowledge and technological advances over many years that, with only a few exceptions, have not been associated with the aura of fundamental physics breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the impact of numerical weather prediction is among the greatest of any area of physical science. As a computational problem, global weather prediction is comparable to the simulation of the human brain and of the evolution of the early Universe, and it is performed every day at major operational centres across the world.

Species and temperature measurement in H2/O2 rocket flow fields by means of Raman scattering diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Degroot, Wim A.; Weiss, Jonathan M.

1992-01-01

Validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes developed for prediction and evaluation of rocket performance is hampered by a lack of experimental data. Non-intrusive laser based diagnostics are needed to provide spatially and temporally resolved gas dynamic and fluid dynamic measurements. This paper reports the first non-intrusive temperature and species measurements in the plume of a 110 N gaseous hydrogen/oxygen thruster at and below ambient pressures, obtained with spontaneous Raman spectroscopy. Measurements at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane are compared with predictions from a numerical solution of the axisymmetric Navier-Stokes and species transport equations with chemical kinetics, which fully model the combustor-nozzle-plume flowfield. The experimentally determined oxygen number density at the centerline at 10 mm downstream of the exit plane is four times that predicted by the model. The experimental number density data fall between those numerically predicted for the exit and 10 mm downstream planes in both magnitude and radial gradient. The predicted temperature levels are within 10 to 15 percent of measured values. Some of the discrepancies between experimental data and predictions result from not modeling the three dimensional core flow injection mixing process, facility back pressure effects, and possible diffuser-thruster interactions.

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating

PubMed Central

Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

2016-01-01

Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

Numerical simulations of mechanical properties of innovative pothole patching materials featuring high toughness, low viscosity nano-molecular resins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, K. Y.; Yuan, W.; Ju, J. W.; Yang, J. M.; Kao, W.; Carlson, L.

2012-04-01

As asphalt pavements age and deteriorate, recurring pothole repair failures and propagating alligator cracks in the asphalt pavements have become a serious issue to our daily life and resulted in high repairing costs for pavement and vehicles. To solve this urgent issue, pothole repair materials with superior durability and long service life are needed. In the present work, revolutionary pothole patching materials with high toughness, high fatigue resistance that are reinforced with nano-molecular resins have been developed to enhance their resistance to traffic loads and service life of repaired potholes. In particular, DCPD resin (dicyclopentadiene, C10H12) with a Rhuthinium-based catalyst is employed to develop controlled properties that are compatible with aggregates and asphalt binders. In this paper, a multi-level numerical micromechanics-based model is developed to predict the mechanical properties of these innovative nanomolecular resin reinforced pothole patching materials. Coarse aggregates in the finite element analysis are modeled as irregular shapes through image processing techniques and randomly-dispersed coated particles. The overall properties of asphalt mastic, which consists of fine aggregates, asphalt binder, cured DCPD and air voids are theoretically estimated by the homogenization technique of micromechanics. Numerical predictions are compared with suitably designed experimental laboratory results.

Microwave thermal ablation: Effects of tissue properties variations on predictive models for treatment planning.

PubMed

Lopresto, Vanni; Pinto, Rosanna; Farina, Laura; Cavagnaro, Marta

2017-08-01

Microwave thermal ablation (MTA) therapy for cancer treatments relies on the absorption of electromagnetic energy at microwave frequencies to induce a very high and localized temperature increase, which causes an irreversible thermal damage in the target zone. Treatment planning in MTA is based on experimental observations of ablation zones in ex vivo tissue, while predicting the treatment outcomes could be greatly improved by reliable numerical models. In this work, a fully dynamical simulation model is exploited to look at effects of temperature-dependent variations in the dielectric and thermal properties of the targeted tissue on the prediction of the temperature increase and the extension of the thermally coagulated zone. In particular, the influence of measurement uncertainty of tissue parameters on the numerical results is investigated. Numerical data were compared with data from MTA experiments performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue at 2.45GHz, with a power of 60W applied for 10min. By including in the simulation model an uncertainty budget (CI=95%) of ±25% in the properties of the tissue due to inaccuracy of measurements, numerical results were achieved in the range of experimental data. Obtained results also showed that the specific heat especially influences the extension of the thermally coagulated zone, with an increase of 27% in length and 7% in diameter when a variation of -25% is considered with respect to the value of the reference simulation model. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of dynamic and aerodynamic characteristics of the centrifugal fan with forward curved blades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polanský, Jiří; Kalmár, László; Gášpár, Roman

2013-12-01

The main aim of this paper is determine the centrifugal fan with forward curved blades aerodynamic characteristics based on numerical modeling. Three variants of geometry were investigated. The first, basic "A" variant contains 12 blades. The geometry of second "B" variant contains 12 blades and 12 semi-blades with optimal length [1]. The third, control variant "C" contains 24 blades without semi-blades. Numerical calculations were performed by CFD Ansys. Another aim of this paper is to compare results of the numerical simulation with results of approximate numerical procedure. Applied approximate numerical procedure [2] is designated to determine characteristics of the turbulent flow in the bladed space of a centrifugal-flow fan impeller. This numerical method is an extension of the hydro-dynamical cascade theory for incompressible and inviscid fluid flow. Paper also partially compares results from the numerical simulation and results from the experimental investigation. Acoustic phenomena observed during experiment, during numerical simulation manifested as deterioration of the calculation stability, residuals oscillation and thus also as a flow field oscillation. Pressure pulsations are evaluated by using frequency analysis for each variant and working condition.

On mathematical modelling of flameless combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mancini, Marco; Schwoeppe, Patrick; Weber, Roman

2007-07-15

A further analysis of the IFRF semi-industrial-scale experiments on flameless (mild) combustion of natural gas is carried out. The experimental burner features a strong oxidizer jet and two weak natural gas jets. Numerous publications have shown the inability of various RANS-based mathematical models to predict the structure of the weak jet. We have proven that the failure is in error predictions of the entrainment and therefore is not related to any chemistry submodels, as has been postulated. (author)

Numerical simulation of CdTe vertical Bridgman growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Hong; Shyy, Wei

1997-04-01

Numerical simulation has been conducted for steady-state Bridgman growth of the CdTe crystal with two ampoule configurations, namely, flat base and semi-spherical base. The present model accounts for conduction, convection and radiation, as well as phase change dynamics. The enthalpy formulation for phase change has been incorporated into a pressure-based algorithm with multi-zone curvilinear grid systems. The entire system which consists of the furnace enclosure wall, the encapsulated gas and the ampoule, contains irregularly configured domains. To meet the competing needs of producing accurate solutions with reasonable computing resources, a two-level approach is employed. The present study reveals that although the two ampoule configurations are quite different, their influence on the melt-solid interface shape is modest, and the undesirable concave interface appears in both cases. Since the interface shape strongly depends on thermal conductivities between the melt and the crystal, as well as ampoule wall temperature, accurate prescriptions of materials transport properties and operating environment are crucial for successful numerical predictions.

Development of Physics-Based Hurricane Wave Response Functions: Application to Selected Sites on the U.S. Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, P. W.; Kaihatu, J. M.; Irish, J. L.; Taylor, N. R.; Slinn, D.

2013-12-01

Recent hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has led to a need for accurate, computationally efficient prediction of hurricane damage so that communities can better assess risk of local socio-economic disruption. This study focuses on developing robust, physics based non-dimensional equations that accurately predict maximum significant wave height at different locations near a given hurricane track. These equations (denoted as Wave Response Functions, or WRFs) were developed from presumed physical dependencies between wave heights and hurricane characteristics and fit with data from numerical models of waves and surge under hurricane conditions. After curve fitting, constraints which correct for fully developed sea state were used to limit the wind wave growth. When applied to the region near Gulfport, MS, back prediction of maximum significant wave height yielded root mean square errors between 0.22-0.42 (m) at open coast stations and 0.07-0.30 (m) at bay stations when compared to the numerical model data. The WRF method was also applied to Corpus Christi, TX and Panama City, FL with similar results. Back prediction errors will be included in uncertainty evaluations connected to risk calculations using joint probability methods. These methods require thousands of simulations to quantify extreme value statistics, thus requiring the use of reduced methods such as the WRF to represent the relevant physical processes.

Putting atomic diffusion theory of magnetic ApBp stars to the test: evaluation of the predictions of time-dependent diffusion models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochukhov, O.; Ryabchikova, T. A.

2018-02-01

A series of recent theoretical atomic diffusion studies has address the challenging problem of predicting inhomogeneous vertical and horizontal chemical element distributions in the atmospheres of magnetic ApBp stars. Here we critically assess the most sophisticated of such diffusion models - based on a time-dependent treatment of the atomic diffusion in a magnetized stellar atmosphere - by direct comparison with observations as well by testing the widely used surface mapping tools with the spectral line profiles predicted by this theory. We show that the mean abundances of Fe and Cr are grossly underestimated by the time-dependent theoretical diffusion model, with discrepancies reaching a factor of 1000 for Cr. We also demonstrate that Doppler imaging inversion codes, based either on modelling of individual metal lines or line-averaged profiles simulated according to theoretical three-dimensional abundance distribution, are able to reconstruct correct horizontal chemical spot maps despite ignoring the vertical abundance variation. These numerical experiments justify a direct comparison of the empirical two-dimensional Doppler maps with theoretical diffusion calculations. This comparison is generally unfavourable for the current diffusion theory, as very few chemical elements are observed to form overabundance rings in the horizontal field regions as predicted by the theory and there are numerous examples of element accumulations in the vicinity of radial field zones, which cannot be explained by diffusion calculations.

Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Overview and Research Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auligne, T.

2017-12-01

In 2001 NOAA/NESDIS, NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OAR, and NASA, subsequently joined by the US Navy and Air Force, came together to form the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) for the common purpose of accelerating the use of satellite data in environmental numerical prediction modeling by developing, using, and anticipating advances in numerical modeling, satellite-based remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. The primary focus was to bring these advances together to improve operational numerical model-based forecasting, under the premise that these partners have common technical and logistical challenges assimilating satellite observations into their modeling enterprises that could be better addressed through cooperative action and/or common solutions. Over the last 15 years, the JCSDA has made and continues to make major contributions to operational assimilation of satellite data. The JCSDA is a multi-agency U.S. government-owned-and-operated organization that was conceived as a venue for the several agencies NOAA, NASA, USAF and USN to collaborate on advancing the development and operational use of satellite observations into numerical model-based environmental analysis and forecasting. The primary mission of the JCSDA is to "accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction systems." This mission is fulfilled through directed research targeting the following key science objectives: Improved radiative transfer modeling; new instrument assimilation; assimilation of humidity, clouds, and precipitation observations; assimilation of land surface observations; assimilation of ocean surface observations; atmospheric composition; and chemistry and aerosols. The goal of this presentation is to briefly introduce the JCSDA's mission and vision, and to describe recent research activities across various JCSDA partners.

Prediction of SOFC Performance with or without Experiments: A Study on Minimum Requirements for Experimental Data

DOE PAGES

Yang, Tao; Sezer, Hayri; Celik, Ismail B.; ...

2015-06-02

In the present paper, a physics-based procedure combining experiments and multi-physics numerical simulations is developed for overall analysis of SOFCs operational diagnostics and performance predictions. In this procedure, essential information for the fuel cell is extracted first by utilizing empirical polarization analysis in conjunction with experiments and refined by multi-physics numerical simulations via simultaneous analysis and calibration of polarization curve and impedance behavior. The performance at different utilization cases and operating currents is also predicted to confirm the accuracy of the proposed model. It is demonstrated that, with the present electrochemical model, three air/fuel flow conditions are needed to producemore » a set of complete data for better understanding of the processes occurring within SOFCs. After calibration against button cell experiments, the methodology can be used to assess performance of planar cell without further calibration. The proposed methodology would accelerate the calibration process and improve the efficiency of design and diagnostics.« less

Numerical simulation of crevice corrosion of titanium: Effect of the bold surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evitts, R.W.; Postlethwaite, J.; Watson, M.K.

1996-12-01

A rigorous crevice corrosion model has been developed that accounts for the bold metal surfaces exterior to the crevice. The model predicts the time change in concentration of all specified chemical species in the crevice and bulk solution, and has the ability to predict active corrosion. It is applied to the crevice corrosion of a small titanium crevice in both oxygenated and anaerobic sodium chloride solutions. The numerical predictions confirm that oxygen is the driving force for crevice corrosion. During the simulations where oxygen is initially present in both the crevice and bulk solution an acidic chloride solution is developed;more » this is the precursor required for crevice corrosion. The anaerobic case displays no tendency to form such a solution. It is also confirmed that those areas in the crevice that are deoxygenated become anodic and the bold metal surface becomes cathodic. As expected, active corrosion is not attained as the simulations are based on electrochemical and chemical parameters at 25 C.« less

Structural and Optical Properties Studies Of Ar2+ Ion Implanted Mn Deposited GaAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Gennaro, Michele; Caridi, Domenico; de Nicola, Carlo

2010-09-01

In this paper we propose a numerical approach for noise prediction of high-speed propellers for Turboprop applications. It is based on a RANS approach for aerodynamic simulation coupled with Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) Acoustic Analogy for propeller noise prediction. The test-case geometry adopted for this study is the 8-bladed NASA SR2 transonic cruise propeller, and simulated Sound Pressure Levels (SPL) have been compared with experimental data available from Wind Tunnel and Flight Tests for different microphone locations in a range of Mach numbers between 0.78 and 0.85 and rotational velocities between 7000 and 9000 rpm. Results show the ability of this approach to predict noise to within a few dB of experimental data. Moreover corrections are provided to be applied to acoustic numerical results in order for them to be compared with Wind Tunnel and Flight Test experimental data, as well computational grid requirements and guidelines in order to perform complete aerodynamic and aeroacoustic calculations with highly competitive computational cost.

Development of hybrid method for the prediction of underwater propeller noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seol, Hanshin; Suh, Jung-Chun; Lee, Soogab

2005-11-01

Noise reduction and control is an important problem in the performance of underwater acoustic systems and in the habitability of the passenger ship for crew and passenger. Furthermore, sound generated by a propeller is critical in underwater detection and it is often related to the survivability of the vessel especially for military purpose. This paper presents a numerical study on the non-cavitating and blade sheet cavitation noises of the underwater propeller. A brief summary of numerical method with verification and results are presented. The noise is predicted using time-domain acoustic analogy. The flow field is analyzed with potential-based panel method, and then the time-dependent pressure and sheet cavity volume data are used as the input for Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings formulation to predict the far-field acoustics. Noise characteristics are presented according to noise sources and conditions. Through this study, the dominant noise source of the underwater propeller is analyzed, which will provide a basis for proper noise control strategies.

Numerical Modeling in Geodynamics: Success, Failure and Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail-Zadeh, A.

2005-12-01

A real success in numerical modeling of dynamics of the Earth can be achieved only by multidisciplinary research teams of experts in geodynamics, applied and pure mathematics, and computer science. The success in numerical modeling is based on the following basic, but simple, rules. (i) People need simplicity most, but they understand intricacies best (B. Pasternak, writer). Start from a simple numerical model, which describes basic physical laws by a set of mathematical equations, and move then to a complex model. Never start from a complex model, because you cannot understand the contribution of each term of the equations to the modeled geophysical phenomenon. (ii) Study the numerical methods behind your computer code. Otherwise it becomes difficult to distinguish true and erroneous solutions to the geodynamic problem, especially when your problem is complex enough. (iii) Test your model versus analytical and asymptotic solutions, simple 2D and 3D model examples. Develop benchmark analysis of different numerical codes and compare numerical results with laboratory experiments. Remember that the numerical tool you employ is not perfect, and there are small bugs in every computer code. Therefore the testing is the most important part of your numerical modeling. (iv) Prove (if possible) or learn relevant statements concerning the existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution to the mathematical and discrete problems. Otherwise you can solve an improperly-posed problem, and the results of the modeling will be far from the true solution of your model problem. (v) Try to analyze numerical models of a geological phenomenon using as less as possible tuning model variables. Already two tuning variables give enough possibilities to constrain your model well enough with respect to observations. The data fitting sometimes is quite attractive and can take you far from a principal aim of your numerical modeling: to understand geophysical phenomena. (vi) If the number of tuning model variables are greater than two, test carefully the effect of each of the variables on the modeled phenomenon. Remember: With four exponents I can fit an elephant (E. Fermi, physicist). (vii) Make your numerical model as accurate as possible, but never put the aim to reach a great accuracy: Undue precision of computations is the first symptom of mathematical illiteracy (N. Krylov, mathematician). How complex should be a numerical model? A model which images any detail of the reality is as useful as a map of scale 1:1 (J. Robinson, economist). This message is quite important for geoscientists, who study numerical models of complex geodynamical processes. I believe that geoscientists will never create a model of the real Earth dynamics, but we should try to model the dynamics such a way to simulate basic geophysical processes and phenomena. Does a particular model have a predictive power? Each numerical model has a predictive power, otherwise the model is useless. The predictability of the model varies with its complexity. Remember that a solution to the numerical model is an approximate solution to the equations, which have been chosen in believe that they describe dynamic processes of the Earth. Hence a numerical model predicts dynamics of the Earth as well as the mathematical equations describe this dynamics. What methodological advances are still needed for testable geodynamic modeling? Inverse (time-reverse) numerical modeling and data assimilation are new methodologies in geodynamics. The inverse modeling can allow to test geodynamic models forward in time using restored (from present-day observations) initial conditions instead of unknown conditions.

Component-based model to predict aerodynamic noise from high-speed train pantographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latorre Iglesias, E.; Thompson, D. J.; Smith, M. G.

2017-04-01

At typical speeds of modern high-speed trains the aerodynamic noise produced by the airflow over the pantograph is a significant source of noise. Although numerical models can be used to predict this they are still very computationally intensive. A semi-empirical component-based prediction model is proposed to predict the aerodynamic noise from train pantographs. The pantograph is approximated as an assembly of cylinders and bars with particular cross-sections. An empirical database is used to obtain the coefficients of the model to account for various factors: incident flow speed, diameter, cross-sectional shape, yaw angle, rounded edges, length-to-width ratio, incoming turbulence and directivity. The overall noise from the pantograph is obtained as the incoherent sum of the predicted noise from the different pantograph struts. The model is validated using available wind tunnel noise measurements of two full-size pantographs. The results show the potential of the semi-empirical model to be used as a rapid tool to predict aerodynamic noise from train pantographs.

Experimental Validation of the Transverse Shear Behavior of a Nomex Core for Sandwich Panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farooqi, M. I.; Nasir, M. A.; Ali, H. M.; Ali, Y.

2017-05-01

This work deals with determination of the transverse shear moduli of a Nomex® honeycomb core of sandwich panels. Their out-of-plane shear characteristics depend on the transverse shear moduli of the honeycomb core. These moduli were determined experimentally, numerically, and analytically. Numerical simulations were performed by using a unit cell model and three analytical approaches. Analytical calculations showed that two of the approaches provided reasonable predictions for the transverse shear modulus as compared with experimental results. However, the approach based upon the classical lamination theory showed large deviations from experimental data. Numerical simulations also showed a trend similar to that resulting from the analytical models.

Depiction of interfacial morphology in impact welded Ti/Cu bimetallic systems using smoothed particle hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nassiri, Ali; Vivek, Anupam; Abke, Tim; Liu, Bert; Lee, Taeseon; Daehn, Glenn

2017-06-01

Numerical simulations of high-velocity impact welding are extremely challenging due to the coupled physics and highly dynamic nature of the process. Thus, conventional mesh-based numerical methodologies are not able to accurately model the process owing to the excessive mesh distortion close to the interface of two welded materials. A simulation platform was developed using smoothed particle hydrodynamics, implemented in a parallel architecture on a supercomputer. Then, the numerical simulations were compared to experimental tests conducted by vaporizing foil actuator welding. The close correspondence of the experiment and modeling in terms of interface characteristics allows the prediction of local temperature and strain distributions, which are not easily measured.

Attractive particle interaction forces and packing density of fine glass powders

PubMed Central

Parteli, Eric J. R.; Schmidt, Jochen; Blümel, Christina; Wirth, Karl-Ernst; Peukert, Wolfgang; Pöschel, Thorsten

2014-01-01

We study the packing of fine glass powders of mean particle diameter in the range (4–52) μm both experimentally and by numerical DEM simulations. We obtain quantitative agreement between the experimental and numerical results, if both types of attractive forces of particle interaction, adhesion and non-bonded van der Waals forces are taken into account. Our results suggest that considering only viscoelastic and adhesive forces in DEM simulations may lead to incorrect numerical predictions of the behavior of fine powders. Based on the results from simulations and experiments, we propose a mathematical expression to estimate the packing fraction of fine polydisperse powders as a function of the average particle size. PMID:25178812

Effect of particle shape and slip mechanism on buoyancy induced convective heat transport with nanofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Pranit Satish; Mahapatra, Pallab Sinha; Pattamatta, Arvind

2017-12-01

Experiments and numerical simulation of natural convection heat transfer with nanosuspensions are presented in this work. The investigations are carried out for three different types of nanosuspensions: namely, spherical-based (alumina/water), tubular-based (multi-walled carbon nanotube/water), and flake-based (graphene/water). A comparison with in-house experiments is made for all the three nanosuspensions at different volume fractions and for the Rayleigh numbers in the range of 7 × 105-1 × 107. Different models such as single component homogeneous, single component non-homogeneous, and multicomponent non-homogeneous are used in the present study. From the present numerical investigation, it is observed that for lower volume fractions (˜0.1%) of nanosuspensions considered, single component models are in close agreement with the experimental results. Single component models which are based on the effective properties of the nanosuspensions alone can predict heat transfer characteristics very well within the experimental uncertainty. Whereas for higher volume fractions (˜0.5%), the multi-component model predicts closer results to the experimental observation as it incorporates drag-based slip force which becomes prominent. The enhancement observed at lower volume fractions for non-spherical particles is attributed to the percolation chain formation, which perturbs the boundary layer and thereby increases the local Nusselt number values.

Numerical prediction of mechanical properties of Pb-Sn solder alloys containing antimony, bismuth and or silver ternary trace elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gadag, Shiva P.; Patra, Susant

2000-12-01

Solder joint interconnects are mechanical means of structural support for bridging the various electronic components and providing electrical contacts and a thermal path for heat dissipation. The functionality of the electronic device often relies on the structural integrity of the solder. The dimensional stability of solder joints is numerically predicted based on their mechanical properties. Algorithms to model the kinetics of dissolution and subsequent growth of intermetallic from the complete knowledge of a single history of time-temperature-reflow profile, by considering equivalent isothermal time intervals, have been developed. The information for dissolution is derived during the heating cycle of reflow and for the growth process from cooling curve of reflow profile. A simple and quick analysis tool to derive tensile stress-strain maps as a function of the reflow temperature of solder and strain rate has been developed by numerical program. The tensile properties are used in modeling thermal strain, thermal fatigue and to predict the overall fatigue life of solder joints. The numerical analysis of the tensile properties as affected by their composition and rate of testing, has been compiled in this paper. A numerical model using constitutive equation has been developed to evaluate the interfacial fatigue crack growth rate. The model can assess the effect of cooling rate, which depends on the level of strain energy release rate. Increasing cooling rate from normalizing to water-quenching, enhanced the fatigue resistance to interfacial crack growth by up to 50% at low strain energy release rate. The increased cooling rates enhanced the fatigue crack growth resistance by surface roughening at the interface of solder joint. This paper highlights salient features of process modeling. Interfacial intermetallic microstructure is affected by cooling rate and thereby affects the mechanical properties.

On The Importance of Connecting Laboratory Measurements of Ice Crystal Growth with Model Parameterizations: Predicting Ice Particle Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, J. Y.

2017-12-01

Parameterizing the growth of ice particles in numerical models is at an interesting cross-roads. Most parameterizations developed in the past, including some that I have developed, parse model ice into numerous categories based primarily on the growth mode of the particle. Models routinely possess smaller ice, snow crystals, aggregates, graupel, and hail. The snow and ice categories in some models are further split into subcategories to account for the various shapes of ice. There has been a relatively recent shift towards a new class of microphysical models that predict the properties of ice particles instead of using multiple categories and subcategories. Particle property models predict the physical characteristics of ice, such as aspect ratio, maximum dimension, effective density, rime density, effective area, and so forth. These models are attractive in the sense that particle characteristics evolve naturally in time and space without the need for numerous (and somewhat artificial) transitions among pre-defined classes. However, particle property models often require fundamental parameters that are typically derived from laboratory measurements. For instance, the evolution of particle shape during vapor depositional growth requires knowledge of the growth efficiencies for the various axis of the crystals, which in turn depends on surface parameters that can only be determined in the laboratory. The evolution of particle shapes and density during riming, aggregation, and melting require data on the redistribution of mass across a crystals axis as that crystal collects water drops, ice crystals, or melts. Predicting the evolution of particle properties based on laboratory-determined parameters has a substantial influence on the evolution of some cloud systems. Radiatively-driven cirrus clouds show a broader range of competition between heterogeneous nucleation and homogeneous freezing when ice crystal properties are predicted. Even strongly convective squall lines show a substantial influence to predicted particle properties: The more natural evolution of ice crystals during riming produces graupel-like particles with size and fall-speeds required for the formation of a classic transition zone and extended stratiform precipitation region.

Fluid Flow and Solidification Under Combined Action of Magnetic Fields and Microgravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, B. Q.; Shu, Y.; Li, K.; deGroh, H. C.

2002-01-01

Mathematical models, both 2-D and 3-D, are developed to represent g-jitter induced fluid flows and their effects on solidification under combined action of magnetic fields and microgravity. The numerical model development is based on the finite element solution of governing equations describing the transient g-jitter driven fluid flows, heat transfer and solutal transport during crystal growth with and without an applied magnetic field in space vehicles. To validate the model predictions, a ground-based g-jitter simulator is developed using the oscillating wall temperatures where timely oscillating fluid flows are measured using a laser PIV system. The measurements are compared well with numerical results obtained from the numerical models. Results show that a combined action derived from magnetic damping and microgravity can be an effective means to control the melt flow and solutal transport in space single crystal growth systems.

On numerical model of one-dimensional time-dependent gas flows through bed of encapsulated phase change material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutsenko, N. A.; Fetsov, S. S.

2017-10-01

Mathematical model and numerical method are proposed for investigating the one-dimensional time-dependent gas flows through a packed bed of encapsulated Phase Change Material (PCM). The model is based on the assumption of interacting interpenetrating continua and includes equations of state, continuity, momentum conservation and energy for PCM and gas. The advantage of the method is that it does not require predicting the location of phase transition zone and can define it automatically as in a usual shock-capturing method. One of the applications of the developed numerical model is the simulation of novel Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Storage system (A-CAES) with Thermal Energy Storage subsystem (TES) based on using the encapsulated PCM in packed bed. Preliminary test calculations give hope that the method can be effectively applied in the future for modelling the charge and discharge processes in such TES with PCM.

Transition of R&D into Operations at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clancy, R. M.

2006-12-01

The U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) plays a significant role in the National capability for operational weather and ocean prediction through its operation of sophisticated global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models, extending from the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean. FNMOC uniquely satisfies the military's requirement for a global operational weather prediction capability based on software certified to DoD Information Assurance standards and operated in a secure classified computer environment protected from outside intrusion by DoD certified firewalls. FNMOC operates around-the-clock, 365 days per year and distributes products to military and civilian users around the world, both ashore and afloat, through a variety of means. FNMOC's customers include all branches of the Department of Defense, other government organizations such as the National Weather Service, private companies, a number of colleges and universities, and the general public. FNMOC employs three primary models, the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), and the WaveWatch III model (WW3), along with a number of specialized models and related applications. NOGAPS is a global weather model, driving nearly all other FNMOC models and applications in some fashion. COAMPS is a high- resolution regional model that has proved to be particularly valuable for forecasting weather and ocean conditions in highly complex coastal areas. WW3 is a state-of-the-art ocean wave model that is employed both globally and regionally in support of a wide variety of naval operations. Other models support and supplement the main models with predictions of ocean thermal structure, ocean currents, sea-ice characteristics, and other data. Fleet Numerical operates at the leading edge of science and technology, and benefits greatly from collocation with its supporting R&D activity, the Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL Code 7500). NRL Code 7500 is a world-class research organization, with focus on weather-related support for the warfighter. Fleet Numerical and NRL Code 7500 share space, data, software and computer systems, and together represent one of the largest concentrations of weather-related intellectual capital in the nation. As documented, for example, by the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) of the National Research Council, investment in R&D is crucial for maintaining state-of-the-art operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) capabilities (see BASC, 1998). And collocation and close cooperation between research and operations, such as exists between NRL Code 7500 and Fleet Numerical, is the optimum arrangement for transitioning R&D quickly and cost-effectively into new and improved operational weather prediction capabilities.

Numerical Modeling of Flow Control in a Boundary-Layer-Ingesting Offset Inlet Diffuser at Transonic Mach Numbers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allan, Brian G.; Owens, Lewis R.

2006-01-01

This paper will investigate the validation of the NASA developed, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver, OVERFLOW, for a boundary-layer-ingesting (BLI) offset (S-shaped) inlet in transonic flow with passive and active flow control devices as well as a baseline case. Numerical simulations are compared to wind tunnel results of a BLI inlet experiment conducted at the NASA Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Comparisons of inlet flow distortion, pressure recovery, and inlet wall pressures are performed. The numerical simulations are compared to the BLI inlet data at a free-stream Mach number of 0.85 and a Reynolds number of approximately 2 million based on the fanface diameter. The numerical simulations with and without tunnel walls are performed, quantifying tunnel wall effects on the BLI inlet flow. A comparison is made between the numerical simulations and the BLI inlet experiment for the baseline and VG vane cases at various inlet mass flow rates. A comparison is also made to a BLI inlet jet configuration for varying actuator mass flow rates at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. Overall, the numerical simulations were able to predict the baseline circumferential flow distortion, DPCP avg, very well within the designed operating range of the BLI inlet. A comparison of the average total pressure recovery showed that the simulations were able to predict the trends but had a negative 0.01 offset when compared to the experimental levels. Numerical simulations of the baseline inlet flow also showed good agreement with the experimental inlet centerline surface pressures. The vane case showed that the CFD predicted the correct trends in the circumferential distortion levels for varying inlet mass flow but had a distortion level that was nearly twice as large as the experiment. Comparison to circumferential distortion measurements for a 15 deg clocked 40 probe rake indicated that the circumferential distortion levels are very sensitive to the symmetry of the flow and that a misalignment of the vanes in the experiment could have resulted in this difference. The numerical simulations of the BLI inlet with jets showed good agreement with the circumferential inlet distortion levels for a range of jet actuator mass flow ratios at a fixed inlet mass flow rate. The CFD simulations for the jet case also predicted an average total pressure recovery offset that was 0.01 lower than the experiment as was seen in the baseline. Comparisons of the flow features for the jet cases revealed that the CFD predicted a much larger vortex at the engine fan-face when compare to the experiment.

The Impact of Current and Future Polar Orbiting Satellite Data on Numerical Weather Prediction at NASA/GSFC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, Robert

2004-01-01

The lack of adequate observational data continues to be recognized as a major factor limiting both atmospheric research and numerical prediction on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Since the advent of meteorological satellites in the 1960's, a considerable research effort has been directed toward the design of space-borne meteorological sensors, the development of optimal methods for the utilization of these data, (and an assessment of the influence of existing satellite data and the potential influence of future satellite observations on numerical weather prediction. This has included both Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). OSEs are conducted to evaluate the impact of specific observations or classes of observations on analyses and forecasts. While OSEs are performed with existing data, OSSEs are conducted to evaluate the potential for future observing systems to improve-NWP, as well as to evaluate trade-offs in observing system design, and to develop and test improved methods for data assimilation. At the conference, results from OSEs to evaluate satellite data sets that have recently become available to the global observing system, such as AIRS and Seawinds, and results from OSSEs to determine the potential impact of space-based lidar winds will be presented.

Advances in Optical Fiber-Based Faraday Rotation Diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, A D; McHale, G B; Goerz, D A

2009-07-27

In the past two years, we have used optical fiber-based Faraday Rotation Diagnostics (FRDs) to measure pulsed currents on several dozen capacitively driven and explosively driven pulsed power experiments. We have made simplifications to the necessary hardware for quadrature-encoded polarization analysis, including development of an all-fiber analysis scheme. We have developed a numerical model that is useful for predicting and quantifying deviations from the ideal diagnostic response. We have developed a method of analyzing quadrature-encoded FRD data that is simple to perform and offers numerous advantages over several existing methods. When comparison has been possible, we have seen good agreementmore » with our FRDs and other current sensors.« less

Effect of surface roughness on substrate-tuned gold nanoparticle gap plasmon resonances.

PubMed

Lumdee, Chatdanai; Yun, Binfeng; Kik, Pieter G

2015-03-07

The effect of nanoscale surface roughness on the gap plasmon resonance of gold nanoparticles on thermally evaporated gold films is investigated experimentally and numerically. Single-particle scattering spectra obtained from 80 nm diameter gold particles on a gold film show significant particle-to-particle variation of the peak scattering wavelength of ±28 nm. The experimental results are compared with numerical simulations of gold nanoparticles positioned on representative rough gold surfaces, modeled based on atomic force microscopy measurements. The predicted spectral variation and average resonance wavelength show good agreement with the measured data. The study shows that nanometer scale surface roughness can significantly affect the performance of gap plasmon-based devices.

Electromagnetic behavior of spatial terahertz wave modulators based on reconfigurable micromirror gratings in Littrow configuration.

PubMed

Kappa, Jan; Schmitt, Klemens M; Rahm, Marco

2017-08-21

Efficient, high speed spatial modulators with predictable performance are a key element in any coded aperture terahertz imaging system. For spectroscopy, the modulators must also provide a broad modulation frequency range. In this study, we numerically analyze the electromagnetic behavior of a dynamically reconfigurable spatial terahertz wave modulator based on a micromirror grating in Littrow configuration. We show that such a modulator can modulate terahertz radiation over a wide frequency range from 1.7 THz to beyond 3 THz at a modulation depth of more than 0.6. As a specific example, we numerically simulated coded aperture imaging of an object with binary transmissive properties and successfully reconstructed the image.

Multiaxial and Thermomechanical Fatigue of Materials: A Historical Perspective and Some Future Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalluri, Sreeramesh

2013-01-01

Structural materials used in engineering applications routinely subjected to repetitive mechanical loads in multiple directions under non-isothermal conditions. Over past few decades, several multiaxial fatigue life estimation models (stress- and strain-based) developed for isothermal conditions. Historically, numerous fatigue life prediction models also developed for thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction, predominantly for uniaxial mechanical loading conditions. Realistic structural components encounter multiaxial loads and non-isothermal loading conditions, which increase potential for interaction of damage modes. A need exists for mechanical testing and development verification of life prediction models under such conditions.

An analysis of supersonic flows with low-Reynolds number compressible two-equation turbulence models using LU finite volume implicit numerical techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, J.

1994-01-01

A generalized flow solver using an implicit Lower-upper (LU) diagonal decomposition based numerical technique has been coupled with three low-Reynolds number kappa-epsilon models for analysis of problems with engineering applications. The feasibility of using the LU technique to obtain efficient solutions to supersonic problems using the kappa-epsilon model has been demonstrated. The flow solver is then used to explore limitations and convergence characteristics of several popular two equation turbulence models. Several changes to the LU solver have been made to improve the efficiency of turbulent flow predictions. In general, the low-Reynolds number kappa-epsilon models are easier to implement than the models with wall-functions, but require much finer near-wall grid to accurately resolve the physics. The three kappa-epsilon models use different approaches to characterize the near wall regions of the flow. Therefore, the limitations imposed by the near wall characteristics have been carefully resolved. The convergence characteristics of a particular model using a given numerical technique are also an important, but most often overlooked, aspect of turbulence model predictions. It is found that some convergence characteristics could be sacrificed for more accurate near-wall prediction. However, even this gain in accuracy is not sufficient to model the effects of an external pressure gradient imposed by a shock-wave/ boundary-layer interaction. Additional work on turbulence models, especially for compressibility, is required since the solutions obtained with base line turbulence are in only reasonable agreement with the experimental data for the viscous interaction problems.

Mixing model with multi-particle interactions for Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, T.; Nagata, K.

2016-08-01

We report on the numerical study of the mixing volume model (MVM) for molecular diffusion in Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing problems. The MVM is based on the multi-particle interaction in a finite volume (mixing volume). A priori test of the MVM, based on the direct numerical simulations of planar jets, is conducted in the turbulent region and the interfacial layer between the turbulent and non-turbulent fluids. The results show that the MVM predicts well the mean effects of the molecular diffusion under various numerical and flow parameters. The number of the mixing particles should be large for predicting a value of the molecular diffusion term positively correlated to the exact value. The size of the mixing volume relative to the Kolmogorov scale η is important in the performance of the MVM. The scalar transfer across the turbulent/non-turbulent interface is well captured by the MVM especially with the small mixing volume. Furthermore, the MVM with multiple mixing particles is tested in the hybrid implicit large-eddy-simulation/Lagrangian-particle-simulation (LES-LPS) of the planar jet with the characteristic length of the mixing volume of O(100η). Despite the large mixing volume, the MVM works well and decays the scalar variance in a rate close to the reference LES. The statistics in the LPS are very robust to the number of the particles used in the simulations and the computational grid size of the LES. Both in the turbulent core region and the intermittent region, the LPS predicts a scalar field well correlated to the LES.

Accuracy of gestalt perception of acute chest pain in predicting coronary artery disease

PubMed Central

das Virgens, Cláudio Marcelo Bittencourt; Lemos Jr, Laudenor; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia; Carvalhal, Manuela Campelo; Cerqueira Junior, Antônio Maurício dos Santos; Lopes, Fernanda Oliveira de Andrade; de Sá, Nicole Cruz; Suerdieck, Jéssica Gonzalez; de Souza, Thiago Menezes Barbosa; Correia, Vitor Calixto de Almeida; Sodré, Gabriella Sant'Ana; da Silva, André Barcelos; Alexandre, Felipe Kalil Beirão; Ferreira, Felipe Rodrigues Marques; Correia, Luís Cláudio Lemos

2017-01-01

AIM To test accuracy and reproducibility of gestalt to predict obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with acute chest pain. METHODS We studied individuals who were consecutively admitted to our Chest Pain Unit. At admission, investigators performed a standardized interview and recorded 14 chest pain features. Based on these features, a cardiologist who was blind to other clinical characteristics made unstructured judgment of CAD probability, both numerically and categorically. As the reference standard for testing the accuracy of gestalt, angiography was required to rule-in CAD, while either angiography or non-invasive test could be used to rule-out. In order to assess reproducibility, a second cardiologist did the same procedure. RESULTS In a sample of 330 patients, the prevalence of obstructive CAD was 48%. Gestalt’s numerical probability was associated with CAD, but the area under the curve of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.55-0.67) indicated low level of accuracy. Accordingly, categorical definition of typical chest pain had a sensitivity of 48% (95%CI: 40%-55%) and specificity of 66% (95%CI: 59%-73%), yielding a negligible positive likelihood ratio of 1.4 (95%CI: 0.65-2.0) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.79 (95%CI: 0.62-1.02). Agreement between the two cardiologists was poor in the numerical classification (95% limits of agreement = -71% to 51%) and categorical definition of typical pain (Kappa = 0.29; 95%CI: 0.21-0.37). CONCLUSION Clinical judgment based on a combination of chest pain features is neither accurate nor reproducible in predicting obstructive CAD in the acute setting. PMID:28400920

Mixing model with multi-particle interactions for Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watanabe, T., E-mail: watanabe.tomoaki@c.nagoya-u.jp; Nagata, K.

We report on the numerical study of the mixing volume model (MVM) for molecular diffusion in Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing problems. The MVM is based on the multi-particle interaction in a finite volume (mixing volume). A priori test of the MVM, based on the direct numerical simulations of planar jets, is conducted in the turbulent region and the interfacial layer between the turbulent and non-turbulent fluids. The results show that the MVM predicts well the mean effects of the molecular diffusion under various numerical and flow parameters. The number of the mixing particles should be large for predicting amore » value of the molecular diffusion term positively correlated to the exact value. The size of the mixing volume relative to the Kolmogorov scale η is important in the performance of the MVM. The scalar transfer across the turbulent/non-turbulent interface is well captured by the MVM especially with the small mixing volume. Furthermore, the MVM with multiple mixing particles is tested in the hybrid implicit large-eddy-simulation/Lagrangian-particle-simulation (LES–LPS) of the planar jet with the characteristic length of the mixing volume of O(100η). Despite the large mixing volume, the MVM works well and decays the scalar variance in a rate close to the reference LES. The statistics in the LPS are very robust to the number of the particles used in the simulations and the computational grid size of the LES. Both in the turbulent core region and the intermittent region, the LPS predicts a scalar field well correlated to the LES.« less

On the Tradeoff Between Altruism and Selfishness in MANET Trust Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-07

to discourage selfish behaviors, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to quanti - tatively measure the trustworthiness of nodes. Adams et al. [18...based reliability metric to predict trust-based system survivability. Section 4 analyzes numerical results obtained through the evaluation of our SPN...concepts in MANETs, trust man- agement for MANETs should consider the following design features: trust metrics must be customizable, evaluation of

Tailored high-resolution numerical weather forecasts for energy efficient predictive building control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauch, V. J.; Gwerder, M.; Gyalistras, D.; Oldewurtel, F.; Schubiger, F.; Steiner, P.

2010-09-01

The high proportion of the total primary energy consumption by buildings has increased the public interest in the optimisation of buildings' operation and is also driving the development of novel control approaches for the indoor climate. In this context, the use of weather forecasts presents an interesting and - thanks to advances in information and predictive control technologies and the continuous improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models - an increasingly attractive option for improved building control. Within the research project OptiControl (www.opticontrol.ethz.ch) predictive control strategies for a wide range of buildings, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and representative locations in Europe are being investigated with the aid of newly developed modelling and simulation tools. Grid point predictions for radiation, temperature and humidity of the high-resolution limited area NWP model COSMO-7 (see www.cosmo-model.org) and local measurements are used as disturbances and inputs into the building system. The control task considered consists in minimizing energy consumption whilst maintaining occupant comfort. In this presentation, we use the simulation-based OptiControl methodology to investigate the impact of COSMO-7 forecasts on the performance of predictive building control and the resulting energy savings. For this, we have selected building cases that were shown to benefit from a prediction horizon of up to 3 days and therefore, are particularly suitable for the use of numerical weather forecasts. We show that the controller performance is sensitive to the quality of the weather predictions, most importantly of the incident radiation on differently oriented façades. However, radiation is characterised by a high temporal and spatial variability in part caused by small scale and fast changing cloud formation and dissolution processes being only partially represented in the COSMO-7 grid point predictions. On the other hand, buildings are affected by particularly local weather conditions at the building site. To overcome this discrepancy, we make use of local measurements to statistically adapt the COSMO-7 model output to the meteorological conditions at the building. For this, we have developed a general correction algorithm that exploits systematic properties of the COSMO-7 prediction error and explicitly estimates the degree of temporal autocorrelation using online recursive estimation. The resulting corrected predictions are improved especially for the first few hours being the most crucial for the predictive controller and, ultimately for the reduction of primary energy consumption using predictive control. The use of numerical weather forecasts in predictive building automation is one example in a wide field of weather dependent advanced energy saving technologies. Our work particularly highlights the need for the development of specifically tailored weather forecast products by (statistical) postprocessing in order to meet the requirements of specific applications.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Single-Column Modeling, GCM Parameterizations and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Somerville, R.C.J.; Iacobellis, S.F.

2005-03-18

Our overall goal is identical to that of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data at all three ARM sites, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global and regional models. To test recently developed prognostic parameterizations based on detailed cloud microphysics, we have first compared single-column model (SCM) output with ARM observations at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA) and Topical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. We focus on the predicted cloud amounts and on a suite of radiativemore » quantities strongly dependent on clouds, such as downwelling surface shortwave radiation. Our results demonstrate the superiority of parameterizations based on comprehensive treatments of cloud microphysics and cloud-radiative interactions. At the SGP and NSA sites, the SCM results simulate the ARM measurements well and are demonstrably more realistic than typical parameterizations found in conventional operational forecasting models. At the TWP site, the model performance depends strongly on details of the scheme, and the results of our diagnostic tests suggest ways to develop improved parameterizations better suited to simulating cloud-radiation interactions in the tropics generally. These advances have made it possible to take the next step and build on this progress, by incorporating our parameterization schemes in state-of-the-art 3D atmospheric models, and diagnosing and evaluating the results using independent data. Because the improved cloud-radiation results have been obtained largely via implementing detailed and physically comprehensive cloud microphysics, we anticipate that improved predictions of hydrologic cycle components, and hence of precipitation, may also be achievable. We are currently testing the performance of our ARM-based parameterizations in state-of-the--art global and regional models. One fruitful strategy for evaluating advances in parameterizations has turned out to be using short-range numerical weather prediction as a test-bed within which to implement and improve parameterizations for modeling and predicting climate variability. The global models we have used to date are the CAM atmospheric component of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCSM climate model as well as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) numerical weather prediction model, thus allowing testing in both climate simulation and numerical weather prediction modes. We present detailed results of these tests, demonstrating the sensitivity of model performance to changes in parameterizations.« less

Universal Profile of the Vortex Condensate in Two-Dimensional Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, Jason; Boffetta, Guido; Falkovich, Gregory; Kolokolov, Igor; Lebedev, Vladimir

2014-12-01

An inverse turbulent cascade in a restricted two-dimensional periodic domain creates a condensate—a pair of coherent system-size vortices. We perform extensive numerical simulations of this system and carry out theoretical analysis based on momentum and energy exchanges between the turbulence and the vortices. We show that the vortices have a universal internal structure independent of the type of small-scale dissipation, small-scale forcing, and boundary conditions. The theory predicts not only the vortex inner region profile, but also the amplitude, which both perfectly agree with the numerical data.

Steady viscous flow past a circular cylinder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fornberg, B.

1984-01-01

Viscous flow past a circular cylinder becomes unstable around Reynolds number Re = 40. With a numerical technique based on Newton's method and made possible by the use of a supercomputer, steady (but unstable) solutions have been calculated up to Re = 400. It is found that the wake continues to grow in length approximately linearly with Re. However, in conflict with available asymptotic predictions, the width starts to increase very rapidly around Re = 300. All numerical calculations have been performed on the CDC CYBER 205 at the CDC Service Center in Arden Hills, Minnesota.

Numerical realization of the variational method for generating self-trapped beams.

PubMed

Duque, Erick I; Lopez-Aguayo, Servando; Malomed, Boris A

2018-03-19

We introduce a numerical variational method based on the Rayleigh-Ritz optimization principle for predicting two-dimensional self-trapped beams in nonlinear media. This technique overcomes the limitation of the traditional variational approximation in performing analytical Lagrangian integration and differentiation. Approximate soliton solutions of a generalized nonlinear Schrödinger equation are obtained, demonstrating robustness of the beams of various types (fundamental, vortices, multipoles, azimuthons) in the course of their propagation. The algorithm offers possibilities to produce more sophisticated soliton profiles in general nonlinear models.

Satellite recovery - Attitude dynamics of the targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cochran, J. E., Jr.; Lahr, B. S.

1986-01-01

The problems of categorizing and modeling the attitude dynamics of uncontrolled artificial earth satellites which may be targets in recovery attempts are addressed. Methods of classification presented are based on satellite rotational kinetic energy, rotational angular momentum and orbit and on the type of control present prior to the benign failure of the control system. The use of approximate analytical solutions and 'exact' numerical solutions to the equations governing satellite attitude motions to predict uncontrolled attitude motion is considered. Analytical and numerical results are presented for the evolution of satellite attitude motions after active control termination.

Cost-effective computational method for radiation heat transfer in semi-crystalline polymers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boztepe, Sinan; Gilblas, Rémi; de Almeida, Olivier; Le Maoult, Yannick; Schmidt, Fabrice

2018-05-01

This paper introduces a cost-effective numerical model for infrared (IR) heating of semi-crystalline polymers. For the numerical and experimental studies presented here semi-crystalline polyethylene (PE) was used. The optical properties of PE were experimentally analyzed under varying temperature and the obtained results were used as input in the numerical studies. The model was built based on optically homogeneous medium assumption whereas the strong variation in the thermo-optical properties of semi-crystalline PE under heating was taken into account. Thus, the change in the amount radiative energy absorbed by the PE medium was introduced in the model induced by its temperature-dependent thermo-optical properties. The computational study was carried out considering an iterative closed-loop computation, where the absorbed radiation was computed using an in-house developed radiation heat transfer algorithm -RAYHEAT- and the computed results was transferred into the commercial software -COMSOL Multiphysics- for solving transient heat transfer problem to predict temperature field. The predicted temperature field was used to iterate the thermo-optical properties of PE that varies under heating. In order to analyze the accuracy of the numerical model experimental analyses were carried out performing IR-thermographic measurements during the heating of the PE plate. The applicability of the model in terms of computational cost, number of numerical input and accuracy was highlighted.

A priori mesh grading for the numerical calculation of the head-related transfer functions

PubMed Central

Ziegelwanger, Harald; Kreuzer, Wolfgang; Majdak, Piotr

2017-01-01

Head-related transfer functions (HRTFs) describe the directional filtering of the incoming sound caused by the morphology of a listener’s head and pinnae. When an accurate model of a listener’s morphology exists, HRTFs can be calculated numerically with the boundary element method (BEM). However, the general recommendation to model the head and pinnae with at least six elements per wavelength renders the BEM as a time-consuming procedure when calculating HRTFs for the full audible frequency range. In this study, a mesh preprocessing algorithm is proposed, viz., a priori mesh grading, which reduces the computational costs in the HRTF calculation process significantly. The mesh grading algorithm deliberately violates the recommendation of at least six elements per wavelength in certain regions of the head and pinnae and varies the size of elements gradually according to an a priori defined grading function. The evaluation of the algorithm involved HRTFs calculated for various geometric objects including meshes of three human listeners and various grading functions. The numerical accuracy and the predicted sound-localization performance of calculated HRTFs were analyzed. A-priori mesh grading appeared to be suitable for the numerical calculation of HRTFs in the full audible frequency range and outperformed uniform meshes in terms of numerical errors, perception based predictions of sound-localization performance, and computational costs. PMID:28239186

Multi-phase SPH model for simulation of erosion and scouring by means of the shields and Drucker-Prager criteria.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubeldia, Elizabeth H.; Fourtakas, Georgios; Rogers, Benedict D.; Farias, Márcio M.

2018-07-01

A two-phase numerical model using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is developed to model the scouring of two-phase liquid-sediments flows with large deformation. The rheology of sediment scouring due to flows with slow kinematics and high shear forces presents a challenge in terms of spurious numerical fluctuations. This paper bridges the gap between the non-Newtonian and Newtonian flows by proposing a model that combines the yielding, shear and suspension layer mechanics which are needed to predict accurately the local erosion phenomena. A critical bed-mobility condition based on the Shields criterion is imposed to the particles located at the sediment surface. Thus, the onset of the erosion process is independent on the pressure field and eliminates the numerical problem of pressure dependant erosion at the interface. This is combined with the Drucker-Prager yield criterion to predict the onset of yielding of the sediment surface and a concentration suspension model. The multi-phase model has been implemented in the open-source DualSPHysics code accelerated with a graphics processing unit (GPU). The multi-phase model has been compared with 2-D reference numerical models and new experimental data for scour with convergent results. Numerical results for a dry-bed dam break over an erodible bed shows improved agreement with experimental scour and water surface profiles compared to well-known SPH multi-phase models.

Numerical simulation on pollutant dispersion from vehicle exhaust in street configurations.

PubMed

Yassin, Mohamed F; Kellnerová, R; Janour, Z

2009-09-01

The impact of the street configurations on pollutants dispersion from vehicles exhausts within urban canyons was numerically investigated using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Three-dimensional flow and dispersion of gaseous pollutants were modeled using standard kappa - epsilon turbulence model, which was numerically solved based on Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations by the commercial CFD code FLUENT. The concentration fields in the urban canyons were examined in three cases of street configurations: (1) a regular-shaped intersection, (2) a T-shaped intersection and (3) a Skew-shaped crossing intersection. Vehicle emissions were simulated as double line sources along the street. The numerical model was validated against wind tunnel results in order to optimize the turbulence model. Numerical predictions agreed reasonably well with wind tunnel results. The results obtained indicate that the mean horizontal velocity was very small in the center near the lower region of street canyon. The lowest turbulent kinetic energy was found at the separation and reattachment points associated with the corner of the down part of the upwind and downwind buildings in the street canyon. The pollutant concentration at the upwind side in the regular-shaped street intersection was higher than that in the T-shaped and Skew-shaped street intersections. Moreover, the results reveal that the street intersections are important factors to predict the flow patterns and pollutant dispersion in street canyon.

Phase-field based Multiscale Modeling of Heterogeneous Solid Electrolytes: Applications to Nanoporous Li 3 PS 4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Jia-Mian; Wang, Bo; Ji, Yanzhou

Modeling the effective ion conductivities of heterogeneous solid electrolytes typically involves the use of a computer-generated microstructure consisting of randomly or uniformly oriented fillers in a matrix. But, the structural features of the filler/matrix interface, which critically determine the interface ion conductivity and the microstructure morphology, have not been considered during the microstructure generation. In using nanoporous β-Li 3PS 4 electrolyte as an example, we develop a phase-field model that enables generating nanoporous microstructures of different porosities and connectivity patterns based on the depth and the energy of the surface (pore/electrolyte interface), both of which are predicted through density functionalmore » theory (DFT) calculations. Room-temperature effective ion conductivities of the generated microstructures are then calculated numerically, using DFT-estimated surface Li-ion conductivity (3.14×10 -3 S/cm) and experimentally measured bulk Li-ion conductivity (8.93×10 -7 S/cm) of β-Li 3PS 4 as the inputs. We also use the generated microstructures to inform effective medium theories to rapidly predict the effective ion conductivity via analytical calculations. Furthemore, when porosity approaches the percolation threshold, both the numerical and analytical methods predict a significantly enhanced Li-ion conductivity (1.74×10 -4 S/cm) that is in good agreement with experimental data (1.64×10 -4 S/cm). The present phase-field based multiscale model is generally applicable to predict both the microstructure patterns and the effective properties of heterogeneous solid electrolytes.« less

Phase-field based Multiscale Modeling of Heterogeneous Solid Electrolytes: Applications to Nanoporous Li 3 PS 4

DOE PAGES

Hu, Jia-Mian; Wang, Bo; Ji, Yanzhou; ...

2017-09-07

Modeling the effective ion conductivities of heterogeneous solid electrolytes typically involves the use of a computer-generated microstructure consisting of randomly or uniformly oriented fillers in a matrix. But, the structural features of the filler/matrix interface, which critically determine the interface ion conductivity and the microstructure morphology, have not been considered during the microstructure generation. In using nanoporous β-Li 3PS 4 electrolyte as an example, we develop a phase-field model that enables generating nanoporous microstructures of different porosities and connectivity patterns based on the depth and the energy of the surface (pore/electrolyte interface), both of which are predicted through density functionalmore » theory (DFT) calculations. Room-temperature effective ion conductivities of the generated microstructures are then calculated numerically, using DFT-estimated surface Li-ion conductivity (3.14×10 -3 S/cm) and experimentally measured bulk Li-ion conductivity (8.93×10 -7 S/cm) of β-Li 3PS 4 as the inputs. We also use the generated microstructures to inform effective medium theories to rapidly predict the effective ion conductivity via analytical calculations. Furthemore, when porosity approaches the percolation threshold, both the numerical and analytical methods predict a significantly enhanced Li-ion conductivity (1.74×10 -4 S/cm) that is in good agreement with experimental data (1.64×10 -4 S/cm). The present phase-field based multiscale model is generally applicable to predict both the microstructure patterns and the effective properties of heterogeneous solid electrolytes.« less

Analytical and numerical prediction of harmonic sound power in the inlet of aero-engines with emphasis on transonic rotation speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewy, Serge; Polacsek, Cyril; Barrier, Raphael

2014-12-01

Tone noise radiated through the inlet of a turbofan is mainly due to rotor-stator interactions at subsonic regimes (approach flight), and to the shock waves attached to each blade at supersonic helical tip speeds (takeoff). The axial compressor of a helicopter turboshaft engine is transonic as well and can be studied like turbofans at takeoff. The objective of the paper is to predict the sound power at the inlet radiating into the free field, with a focus on transonic conditions because sound levels are much higher. Direct numerical computation of tone acoustic power is based on a RANS (Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes) solver followed by an integration of acoustic intensity over specified inlet cross-sections, derived from Cantrell and Hart equations (valid in irrotational flows). In transonic regimes, sound power decreases along the intake because of nonlinear propagation, which must be discriminated from numerical dissipation. This is one of the reasons why an analytical approach is also suggested. It is based on three steps: (i) appraisal of the initial pressure jump of the shock waves; (ii) 2D nonlinear propagation model of Morfey and Fisher; (iii) calculation of the sound power of the 3D ducted acoustic field. In this model, all the blades are assumed to be identical such that only the blade passing frequency and its harmonics are predicted (like in the present numerical simulations). However, transfer from blade passing frequency to multiple pure tones can be evaluated in a fourth step through a statistical analysis of irregularities between blades. Interest of the analytical method is to provide a good estimate of nonlinear acoustic propagation in the upstream duct while being easy and fast to compute. The various methods are applied to two turbofan models, respectively in approach (subsonic) and takeoff (transonic) conditions, and to a Turbomeca turboshaft engine (transonic case). The analytical method in transonic appears to be quite reliable by comparison with the numerical solution and with available experimental data.

A comparison of etched-geometry and overgrown silicon permeable base transistors by two-dimensional numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vojak, B. A.; Alley, G. D.

1983-08-01

Two-dimensional numerical simulations are used to compare etched geometry and overgrown Si permeable base transistors (PTBs), considering both the etched collector and etched emitter biasing conditions made possible by the asymmetry of the etched structure. In PTB devices, the two-dimensional nature of the depletion region near the Schottky contact base grating results in a smaller electron barrier and, therefore, a larger collector current in the etched than in the overgrown structure. The parasitic feedback effects which result at high base-to-emitter bias levels lead to a deviation from the square-law behavior found in the collector characteristics of the overgrown PBT. These structures also have lower device capacitances and smaller transconductances at high base-to-emitter voltages. As a result, overgrown and etched structures have comparable predicted maximum values of the small signal unity short-circuit current gain frequency and maximum oscillation frequency.

Development of a linearized unsteady Euler analysis for turbomachinery blade rows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verdon, Joseph M.; Montgomery, Matthew D.; Kousen, Kenneth A.

1995-01-01

A linearized unsteady aerodynamic analysis for axial-flow turbomachinery blading is described in this report. The linearization is based on the Euler equations of fluid motion and is motivated by the need for an efficient aerodynamic analysis that can be used in predicting the aeroelastic and aeroacoustic responses of blade rows. The field equations and surface conditions required for inviscid, nonlinear and linearized, unsteady aerodynamic analyses of three-dimensional flow through a single, blade row operating within a cylindrical duct, are derived. An existing numerical algorithm for determining time-accurate solutions of the nonlinear unsteady flow problem is described, and a numerical model, based upon this nonlinear flow solver, is formulated for the first-harmonic linear unsteady problem. The linearized aerodynamic and numerical models have been implemented into a first-harmonic unsteady flow code, called LINFLUX. At present this code applies only to two-dimensional flows, but an extension to three-dimensions is planned as future work. The three-dimensional aerodynamic and numerical formulations are described in this report. Numerical results for two-dimensional unsteady cascade flows, excited by prescribed blade motions and prescribed aerodynamic disturbances at inlet and exit, are also provided to illustrate the present capabilities of the LINFLUX analysis.

Prediction of the explosion effect of aluminized explosives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Xiang, Cong; Liang, HuiMin

2013-05-01

We present an approach to predict the explosion load for aluminized explosives using a numerical calculation. A code to calculate the species of detonation products of high energy ingredients and those of the secondary reaction of aluminum and the detonation products, velocity of detonation, pressure, temperature and JWL parameters of aluminized explosives has been developed in this study. Through numerical calculations carried out with this code, the predicted JWL parameters for aluminized explosives have been compared with those measured by the cylinder test. The predicted JWL parameters with this code agree with those measured by the cylinder test. Furthermore, the load of explosion for the aluminized explosive was calculated using the numerical simulation by using the JWL equation of state. The loads of explosion for the aluminized explosive obtained using the predicted JWL parameters have been compared with those using the measured JWL parameters. Both of them are almost the same. The numerical results using the predicted JWL parameters show that the explosion air shock wave is the strongest when the mass fraction of aluminum powder in the explosive mixtures is 30%. This result agrees with the empirical data.

Numerical model of spray combustion in a single cylinder diesel engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acampora, Luigi; Sequino, Luigi; Nigro, Giancarlo; Continillo, Gaetano; Vaglieco, Bianca Maria

2017-11-01

A numerical model is developed for predicting the pressure cycle from Intake Valve Closing (IVC) to the Exhaust Valve Opening (EVO) events. The model is based on a modified one-dimensional (1D) Musculus and Kattke spray model, coupled with a zero-dimensional (0D) non-adiabatic transient Fed-Batch reactor model. The 1D spray model provides an estimate of the fuel evaporation rate during the injection phenomenon, as a function of time. The 0D Fed-Batch reactor model describes combustion. The main goal of adopting a 0D (perfectly stirred) model is to use highly detailed reaction mechanisms for Diesel fuel combustion in air, while keeping the computational cost as low as possible. The proposed model is validated by comparing its predictions with experimental data of pressure obtained from an optical single cylinder Diesel engine.

Numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations for transonic afterbody flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, R. C., Jr.

1980-01-01

The time dependent Navier-Stokes equations in mass averaged variables are solved for transonic flow over axisymmetric boattail plume simulator configurations. Numerical solution of these equations is accomplished with the unsplit explict finite difference algorithm of MacCormack. A grid subcycling procedure and computer code vectorization are used to improve computational efficiency. The two layer algebraic turbulence models of Cebeci-Smith and Baldwin-Lomax are employed for investigating turbulence closure. Two relaxation models based on these baseline models are also considered. Results in the form of surface pressure distribution for three different circular arc boattails at two free stream Mach numbers are compared with experimental data. The pressures in the recirculating flow region for all separated cases are poorly predicted with the baseline turbulence models. Significant improvements in the predictions are usually obtained by using the relaxation models.

Bayesian-based estimation of acoustic surface impedance: Finite difference frequency domain approach.

PubMed

Bockman, Alexander; Fackler, Cameron; Xiang, Ning

2015-04-01

Acoustic performance for an interior requires an accurate description of the boundary materials' surface acoustic impedance. Analytical methods may be applied to a small class of test geometries, but inverse numerical methods provide greater flexibility. The parameter estimation problem requires minimizing prediction vice observed acoustic field pressure. The Bayesian-network sampling approach presented here mitigates other methods' susceptibility to noise inherent to the experiment, model, and numerics. A geometry agnostic method is developed here and its parameter estimation performance is demonstrated for an air-backed micro-perforated panel in an impedance tube. Good agreement is found with predictions from the ISO standard two-microphone, impedance-tube method, and a theoretical model for the material. Data by-products exclusive to a Bayesian approach are analyzed to assess sensitivity of the method to nuisance parameters.

Simultaneous Laser Raman-rayleigh-lif Measurements and Numerical Modeling Results of a Lifted Turbulent H2/N2 Jet Flame in a Vitiated Coflow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabra, R.; Chen, J. Y.; Dibble, R. W.; Myhrvold, T.; Karpetis, A. N.; Barlow, R. S.

2002-01-01

An experiment and numerical investigation is presented of a lifted turbulent H2/N2 jet flame in a coflow of hot, vitiated gases. The vitiated coflow burner emulates the coupling of turbulent mixing and chemical kinetics exemplary of the reacting flow in the recirculation region of advanced combustors. It also simplifies numerical investigation of this coupled problem by removing the complexity of recirculating flow. Scalar measurements are reported for a lifted turbulent jet flame of H2/N2 (Re = 23,600, H/d = 10) in a coflow of hot combustion products from a lean H2/Air flame ((empty set) = 0.25, T = 1,045 K). The combination of Rayleigh scattering, Raman scattering, and laser-induced fluorescence is used to obtain simultaneous measurements of temperature and concentrations of the major species, OH, and NO. The data attest to the success of the experimental design in providing a uniform vitiated coflow throughout the entire test region. Two combustion models (PDF: joint scalar Probability Density Function and EDC: Eddy Dissipation Concept) are used in conjunction with various turbulence models to predict the lift-off height (H(sub PDF)/d = 7,H(sub EDC)/d = 8.5). Kalghatgi's classic phenomenological theory, which is based on scaling arguments, yields a reasonably accurate prediction (H(sub K)/d = 11.4) of the lift-off height for the present flame. The vitiated coflow admits the possibility of auto-ignition of mixed fluid, and the success of the present parabolic implementation of the PDF model in predicting a stable lifted flame is attributable to such ignition. The measurements indicate a thickened turbulent reaction zone at the flame base. Experimental results and numerical investigations support the plausibility of turbulent premixed flame propagation by small scale (on the order of the flame thickness) recirculation and mixing of hot products into reactants and subsequent rapid ignition of the mixture.

Flash flood warning based on fully dynamic hydrology modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Nickovic, Slobodan

2016-04-01

Numerical hydrologic modeling has achieved limited success in the past due to, inter alia, lack of adequate input data. Over the last decade, data availability has improved substantially. For modelling purposes, high-resolution data on topography, river routing, and land cover and soil features have meanwhile become available, as well as the observations such as radar precipitation information. In our study, we have implemented the HYPROM model (Hydrology Prognostic Model) to predict a flash flood event at a smaller-scale basin in Southern Serbia. HYPROM is based on the full set of governing equations for surface hydrological dynamics, in which momentum components, along with the equation of mass continuity, are used as full prognostic equations. HYPROM also includes a river routing module serving as a collector for the extra surface water. Such approach permits appropriate representation of different hydrology scales ranging from flash floods to flows of large and slow river basins. The use of full governing equations, if not appropriately parameterized, may lead to numerical instability systems when the surface water in a model is vanishing. To resolve these modelling problems, an unconditionally stable numerical scheme and a method for height redistribution avoiding shortwave height noise have been developed in HYPROM, which achieve numerical convergence of u, v and h when surface water disappears. We have applied HYPROM, driven by radar-estimated precipitation, to predict flash flooding occurred over smaller and medium-size river basins. Two torrential rainfall cases have been simulated to check the accuracy of the model: the exceptional flooding of May 2014 in Western Serbia, and the convective flash flood of January 2015 in Southern Serbia. The second episode has been successfully predicted by HYPROM in terms of timing and intensity six hours before the event occurred. Such flash flood warning system is in preparation to be operationally implemented in the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia.

Modelling complex phenomena in optical fibres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allington-Smith, Jeremy; Murray, Graham; Lemke, Ulrike

2012-09-01

We present a new model for predicting the performance of fibre systems in the multimode limit. This is based on ray-­-tracing but includes a semi-­-empirical description of Focal Ratio Degradation (FRD). We show how FRD is simulated by the model. With this ability, it can be used to investigate a wide variety of phenomena including scrambling and the loss of light close to the limiting numerical aperture. It can also be used to predict the performance of non-­-round and asymmetric fibres.

The modelling of heat, mass and solute transport in solidification systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voller, V. R.; Brent, A. D.; Prakash, C.

1989-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the range of possible one-phase models of binary alloy solidification. Starting from a general two-phase description, based on the two-fluid model, three limiting cases are identified which result in one-phase models of binary systems. Each of these models can be readily implemented in standard single phase flow numerical codes. Differences between predictions from these models are examined. In particular, the effects of the models on the predicted macro-segregation patterns are evaluated.

Base Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics of a Four-Nozzle Clustered Rocket Engine: Effect of Nozzle Pressure Ratio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nallasamy, R.; Kandula, M.; Duncil, L.; Schallhorn, P.

2010-01-01

The base pressure and heating characteristics of a four-nozzle clustered rocket configuration is studied numerically with the aid of OVERFLOW Navier-Stokes code. A pressure ratio (chamber pressure to freestream static pressure) range of 990 to 5,920 and a freestream Mach number range of 2.5 to 3.5 are studied. The qualitative trends of decreasing base pressure with increasing pressure ratio and increasing base heat flux with increasing pressure ratio are correctly predicted. However, the predictions for base pressure and base heat flux show deviations from the wind tunnel data. The differences in absolute values between the computation and the data are attributed to factors such as perfect gas (thermally and calorically perfect) assumption, turbulence model inaccuracies in the simulation, and lack of grid adaptation.

An Efficient Scheme for Crystal Structure Prediction Based on Structural Motifs

DOE PAGES

Zhu, Zizhong; Wu, Ping; Wu, Shunqing; ...

2017-05-15

An efficient scheme based on structural motifs is proposed for the crystal structure prediction of materials. The key advantage of the present method comes in two fold: first, the degrees of freedom of the system are greatly reduced, since each structural motif, regardless of its size, can always be described by a set of parameters (R, θ, φ) with five degrees of freedom; second, the motifs could always appear in the predicted structures when the energies of the structures are relatively low. Both features make the present scheme a very efficient method for predicting desired materials. The method has beenmore » applied to the case of LiFePO 4, an important cathode material for lithium-ion batteries. Numerous new structures of LiFePO 4 have been found, compared to those currently available, available, demonstrating the reliability of the present methodology and illustrating the promise of the concept of structural motifs.« less

Calm water resistance prediction of a bulk carrier using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahaman, Md. Mashiur; Islam, Hafizul; Islam, Md. Tariqul; Khondoker, Md. Reaz Hasan

2017-12-01

Maneuverability and resistance prediction with suitable accuracy is essential for optimum ship design and propulsion power prediction. This paper aims at providing some of the maneuverability characteristics of a Japanese bulk carrier model, JBC in calm water using a computational fluid dynamics solver named SHIP Motion and OpenFOAM. The solvers are based on the Reynolds average Navier-Stokes method (RaNS) and solves structured grid using the Finite Volume Method (FVM). This paper comprises the numerical results of calm water test for the JBC model with available experimental results. The calm water test results include the total drag co-efficient, average sinkage, and trim data. Visualization data for pressure distribution on the hull surface and free water surface have also been included. The paper concludes that the presented solvers predict the resistance and maneuverability characteristics of the bulk carrier with reasonable accuracy utilizing minimum computational resources.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

PubMed

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-12-11

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

PubMed Central

Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

2012-01-01

Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

MetaDP: a comprehensive web server for disease prediction of 16S rRNA metagenomic datasets.

PubMed

Xu, Xilin; Wu, Aiping; Zhang, Xinlei; Su, Mingming; Jiang, Taijiao; Yuan, Zhe-Ming

2016-01-01

High-throughput sequencing-based metagenomics has garnered considerable interest in recent years. Numerous methods and tools have been developed for the analysis of metagenomic data. However, it is still a daunting task to install a large number of tools and complete a complicated analysis, especially for researchers with minimal bioinformatics backgrounds. To address this problem, we constructed an automated software named MetaDP for 16S rRNA sequencing data analysis, including data quality control, operational taxonomic unit clustering, diversity analysis, and disease risk prediction modeling. Furthermore, a support vector machine-based prediction model for intestinal bowel syndrome (IBS) was built by applying MetaDP to microbial 16S sequencing data from 108 children. The success of the IBS prediction model suggests that the platform may also be applied to other diseases related to gut microbes, such as obesity, metabolic syndrome, or intestinal cancer, among others (http://metadp.cn:7001/).

An Efficient Scheme for Crystal Structure Prediction Based on Structural Motifs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Zizhong; Wu, Ping; Wu, Shunqing

An efficient scheme based on structural motifs is proposed for the crystal structure prediction of materials. The key advantage of the present method comes in two fold: first, the degrees of freedom of the system are greatly reduced, since each structural motif, regardless of its size, can always be described by a set of parameters (R, θ, φ) with five degrees of freedom; second, the motifs could always appear in the predicted structures when the energies of the structures are relatively low. Both features make the present scheme a very efficient method for predicting desired materials. The method has beenmore » applied to the case of LiFePO 4, an important cathode material for lithium-ion batteries. Numerous new structures of LiFePO 4 have been found, compared to those currently available, available, demonstrating the reliability of the present methodology and illustrating the promise of the concept of structural motifs.« less

Model for compressible turbulence in hypersonic wall boundary and high-speed mixing layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowersox, Rodney D. W.; Schetz, Joseph A.

1994-07-01

The most common approach to Navier-Stokes predictions of turbulent flows is based on either the classical Reynolds-or Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations or some combination. The main goal of the current work was to numerically assess the effects of the compressible turbulence terms that were experimentaly found to be important. The compressible apparent mass mixing length extension (CAMMLE) model, which was based on measured experimental data, was found to produce accurate predictions of the measured compressible turbulence data for both the wall bounded and free mixing layer. Hence, that model was incorporated into a finite volume Navier-Stokes code.

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in vent position, volume, eruption rate, wind directions and topography. Therefore, numerical simulations with controlled parameters are needed for more precise volcanic eruption predictions. The use of the next-generation system should enable the visualization of past volcanic eruptions datasets such as distributions, eruption volumes and eruption rates, on maps and diagrams using timeline and GIS technology. Similar volcanic eruptions scenarios should be easily searchable from the eruption database. Using the volcano hazard assessment system, prediction of the time and area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions at any locations near the volcano should be possible, using numerical simulations. The system should estimate volcanic hazard risks by overlaying the distributions of volcanic deposits on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using a GIS enabled systems. Probabilistic volcanic hazards maps in active volcano sites should be made based on numerous numerical simulations. The next-generation real-time hazard assessment system would be implemented with user-friendly interface, making the risk assessment system easily usable and accessible online.

Promoter Sequences Prediction Using Relational Association Rule Mining

PubMed Central

Czibula, Gabriela; Bocicor, Maria-Iuliana; Czibula, Istvan Gergely

2012-01-01

In this paper we are approaching, from a computational perspective, the problem of promoter sequences prediction, an important problem within the field of bioinformatics. As the conditions for a DNA sequence to function as a promoter are not known, machine learning based classification models are still developed to approach the problem of promoter identification in the DNA. We are proposing a classification model based on relational association rules mining. Relational association rules are a particular type of association rules and describe numerical orderings between attributes that commonly occur over a data set. Our classifier is based on the discovery of relational association rules for predicting if a DNA sequence contains or not a promoter region. An experimental evaluation of the proposed model and comparison with similar existing approaches is provided. The obtained results show that our classifier overperforms the existing techniques for identifying promoter sequences, confirming the potential of our proposal. PMID:22563233

Performance prediction of a ducted rocket combustor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stowe, Robert

2001-07-01

The ducted rocket is a supersonic flight propulsion system that takes the exhaust from a solid fuel gas generator, mixes it with air, and burns it to produce thrust. To develop such systems, the use of numerical models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is increasingly popular, but their application to reacting flow requires specific attention and validation. Through a careful examination of the governing equations and experimental measurements, a CFD-based method was developed to predict the performance of a ducted rocket combustor. It uses an equilibrium-chemistry Probability Density Function (PDF) combustion model, with a gaseous and a separate stream of 75 nm diameter carbon spheres to represent the fuel. After extensive validation with water tunnel and direct-connect combustion experiments over a wide range of geometries and test conditions, this CFD-based method was able to predict, within a good degree of accuracy, the combustion efficiency of a ducted rocket combustor.

The Effect of Basis Selection on Static and Random Acoustic Response Prediction Using a Nonlinear Modal Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rizzi, Stephen A.; Przekop, Adam

2005-01-01

An investigation of the effect of basis selection on geometric nonlinear response prediction using a reduced-order nonlinear modal simulation is presented. The accuracy is dictated by the selection of the basis used to determine the nonlinear modal stiffness. This study considers a suite of available bases including bending modes only, bending and membrane modes, coupled bending and companion modes, and uncoupled bending and companion modes. The nonlinear modal simulation presented is broadly applicable and is demonstrated for nonlinear quasi-static and random acoustic response of flat beam and plate structures with isotropic material properties. Reduced-order analysis predictions are compared with those made using a numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom to quantify the error associated with the selected modal bases. Bending and membrane responses are separately presented to help differentiate the bases.

On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, S.; Bröcker, J.; Kantz, H.

2012-03-01

In numerical weather prediction, ensembles are used to retrieve probabilistic forecasts of future weather conditions. We consider events where the verification is smaller than the smallest, or larger than the largest ensemble member of a scalar ensemble forecast. These events are called outliers. In a statistically consistent K-member ensemble, outliers should occur with a base rate of 2/(K+1). In operational ensembles this base rate tends to be higher. We study the predictability of outlier events in terms of the Brier Skill Score and find that forecast probabilities can be calculated which are more skillful than the unconditional base rate. This is shown analytically for statistically consistent ensembles. Using logistic regression, forecast probabilities for outlier events in an operational ensemble are calculated. These probabilities exhibit positive skill which is quantitatively similar to the analytical results. Possible causes of these results as well as their consequences for ensemble interpretation are discussed.

Unsteady numerical simulation of a round jet with impinging microjets for noise suppression

PubMed Central

Lew, Phoi-Tack; Najafi-Yazdi, Alireza; Mongeau, Luc

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of a lattice-Boltzmann method (LBM)-Large Eddy Simulation methodology for the prediction of sound radiation from a round jet-microjet combination. The distinct advantage of LBM over traditional computational fluid dynamics methods is its ease of handling problems with complex geometries. Numerical simulations of an isothermal Mach 0.5, ReD = 1 × 105 circular jet (Dj = 0.0508 m) with and without the presence of 18 microjets (Dmj = 1 mm) were performed. The presence of microjets resulted in a decrease in the axial turbulence intensity and turbulent kinetic energy. The associated decrease in radiated sound pressure level was around 1 dB. The far-field sound was computed using the porous Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings surface integral acoustic method. The trend obtained is in qualitative agreement with experimental observations. The results of this study support the accuracy of LBM based numerical simulations for predictions of the effects of noise suppression devices on the radiated sound power. PMID:23967931

Evaluation of a two-dimensional numerical model for air quality simulation in a street canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Shin `Ichi; Lin, Fu Chi; Yamada, Hiroaki; Shiozawa, Kiyoshige

For many urban areas, the most severe air pollution caused by automobile emissions appears along a road surrounded by tall buildings: the so=called street canyon. A practical two-dimensional numerical model has been developed to be applied to this kind of road structure. This model contains two submodels: a wind-field model and a diffusion model based on a Monte Carlo particle scheme. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of this model, an air quality simulation was carried out at three trunk roads in the Tokyo metropolitan area: Nishi-Shimbashi, Aoyama and Kanda-Nishikicho (using SF 6 as a tracer and NO x measurement). Since this model has two-dimensional properties and cannot be used for the parallel wind condition, the perpendicular wind condition was selected for the simulation. The correlation coefficients for the SF 6 and NO x data in Aoyama were 0.67 and 0.62, respectively. When predictive performance of this model is compared with other models, this model is comparable to the SRI model, and superior to the APPS three-dimensional numerical model.

Numerical simulation of the laser welding process for the prediction of temperature distribution on welded aluminium aircraft components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsirkas, S. A.

2018-03-01

The present investigation is focused to the modelling of the temperature field in aluminium aircraft components welded by a CO2 laser. A three-dimensional finite element model has been developed to simulate the laser welding process and predict the temperature distribution in T-joint laser welded plates with fillet material. The simulation of the laser beam welding process was performed using a nonlinear heat transfer analysis, based on a keyhole formation model analysis. The model employs the technique of element ;birth and death; in order to simulate the weld fillet. Various phenomena associated with welding like temperature dependent material properties and heat losses through convection and radiation were accounted for in the model. The materials considered were 6056-T78 and 6013-T4 aluminium alloys, commonly used for aircraft components. The temperature distribution during laser welding process has been calculated numerically and validated by experimental measurements on different locations of the welded structure. The numerical results are in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Link prediction based on nonequilibrium cooperation effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lanxi; Zhu, Xuzhen; Tian, Hui

2018-04-01

Link prediction in complex networks has become a common focus of many researchers. But most existing methods concentrate on neighbors, and rarely consider degree heterogeneity of two endpoints. Node degree represents the importance or status of endpoints. We describe the large-degree heterogeneity as the nonequilibrium between nodes. This nonequilibrium facilitates a stable cooperation between endpoints, so that two endpoints with large-degree heterogeneity tend to connect stably. We name such a phenomenon as the nonequilibrium cooperation effect. Therefore, this paper proposes a link prediction method based on the nonequilibrium cooperation effect to improve accuracy. Theoretical analysis will be processed in advance, and at the end, experiments will be performed in 12 real-world networks to compare the mainstream methods with our indices in the network through numerical analysis.

Physical and numerical studies of a fracture system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piggott, Andrew R.; Elsworth, Derek

1989-03-01

Physical and numerical studies of transient flow in a model of discretely fractured rock are presented. The physical model is a thermal analogue to fractured media flow consisting of idealized disc-shaped fractures. The numerical model is used to predict the behavior of the physical model. The use of different insulating materials to encase the physical model allows the effects of differing leakage magnitudes to be examined. A procedure for determining appropriate leakage parameters is documented. These parameters are used in forward analysis to predict the thermal response of the physical model. Knowledge of the leakage parameters and of the temporal variation of boundary conditions are shown to be essential to an accurate prediction. Favorable agreement is illustrated between numerical and physical results. The physical model provides a data source for the benchmarking of alternative numerical algorithms.

Promoting broad and stable improvements in low-income children's numerical knowledge through playing number board games.

PubMed

Ramani, Geetha B; Siegler, Robert S

2008-01-01

Theoretical analyses of the development of numerical representations suggest that playing linear number board games should enhance young children's numerical knowledge. Consistent with this prediction, playing such a game for roughly 1 hr increased low-income preschoolers' (mean age = 5.4 years) proficiency on 4 diverse numerical tasks: numerical magnitude comparison, number line estimation, counting, and numeral identification. The gains remained 9 weeks later. Classmates who played an identical game, except for the squares varying in color rather than number, did not improve on any measure. Also as predicted, home experience playing number board games correlated positively with numerical knowledge. Thus, playing number board games with children from low-income backgrounds may increase their numerical knowledge at the outset of school.

Numerical simulation of cryogenic cavitating flow by an extended transport-based cavitation model with thermal effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shaofeng; Li, Xiaojun; Zhu, Zuchao

2018-06-01

Thermodynamic effects on cryogenic cavitating flow is important to the accuracy of numerical simulations mainly because cryogenic fluids are thermo-sensitive, and the vapour saturation pressure is strongly dependent on the local temperature. The present study analyses the thermal cavitating flows in liquid nitrogen around a 2D hydrofoil. Thermal effects were considered using the RNG k-ε turbulence model with a modified turbulent eddy viscosity and the mass transfer homogenous cavitation model coupled with energy equation. In the cavitation model process, the saturated vapour pressure is modified based on the Clausius-Clapron equation. The convection heat transfer approach is also considered to extend the Zwart-Gerber-Belamri model. The predicted pressure and temperature inside the cavity under cryogenic conditions show that the modified Zwart-Gerber-Belamri model is in agreement with the experimental data of Hord et al. in NASA, especially in the thermal field. The thermal effect significantly affects the cavitation dynamics during phase-change process, which could delay or suppress the occurrence and development of cavitation behaviour. Based on the modified Zwart-Gerber-Belamri model proposed in this paper, better prediction of the cryogenic cavitation is attainable.

Characteristics of the mixing volume model with the interactions among spatially distributed particles for Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Tomoaki; Nagata, Koji

2016-11-01

The mixing volume model (MVM), which is a mixing model for molecular diffusion in Lagrangian simulations of turbulent mixing problems, is proposed based on the interactions among spatially distributed particles in a finite volume. The mixing timescale in the MVM is derived by comparison between the model and the subgrid scale scalar variance equation. A-priori test of the MVM is conducted based on the direct numerical simulations of planar jets. The MVM is shown to predict well the mean effects of the molecular diffusion under various conditions. However, a predicted value of the molecular diffusion term is positively correlated to the exact value in the DNS only when the number of the mixing particles is larger than two. Furthermore, the MVM is tested in the hybrid implicit large-eddy-simulation/Lagrangian-particle-simulation (ILES/LPS). The ILES/LPS with the present mixing model predicts well the decay of the scalar variance in planar jets. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Nos. 25289030 and 16K18013. The numerical simulations presented in this manuscript were carried out on the high performance computing system (NEC SX-ACE) in the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

Investigation of advanced counterrotation blade configuration concepts for high speed turboprop systems. Task 5: Unsteady counterrotation ducted propfan analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Edward J.; Delaney, Robert A.

1993-01-01

The primary objective of this study was the development of a time-marching three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes aerodynamic analysis to predict steady and unsteady compressible transonic flows about ducted and unducted propfan propulsion systems employing multiple blade rows. The computer codes resulting from this study are referred to as ADPAC-AOAR\\CR (Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis Codes-Angle of Attack Coupled Row). This document is the final report describing the theoretical basis and analytical results from the ADPAC-AOACR codes developed under task 5 of NASA Contract NAS3-25270, Unsteady Counterrotating Ducted Propfan Analysis. The ADPAC-AOACR Program is based on a flexible multiple blocked grid discretization scheme permitting coupled 2-D/3-D mesh block solutions with application to a wide variety of geometries. For convenience, several standard mesh block structures are described for turbomachinery applications. Aerodynamic calculations are based on a four-stage Runge-Kutta time-marching finite volume solution technique with added numerical dissipation. Steady flow predictions are accelerated by a multigrid procedure. Numerical calculations are compared with experimental data for several test cases to demonstrate the utility of this approach for predicting the aerodynamics of modern turbomachinery configurations employing multiple blade rows.

Investigation of advanced counterrotation blade configuration concepts for high speed turboprop systems. Task 5: Unsteady counterrotation ducted propfan analysis. Computer program user's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Edward J.; Delaney, Robert A.; Adamczyk, John J.; Miller, Christopher J.; Arnone, Andrea; Swanson, Charles

1993-01-01

The primary objective of this study was the development of a time-marching three-dimensional Euler/Navier-Stokes aerodynamic analysis to predict steady and unsteady compressible transonic flows about ducted and unducted propfan propulsion systems employing multiple blade rows. The computer codes resulting from this study are referred to as ADPAC-AOACR (Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis Codes-Angle of Attack Coupled Row). This report is intended to serve as a computer program user's manual for the ADPAC-AOACR codes developed under Task 5 of NASA Contract NAS3-25270, Unsteady Counterrotating Ducted Propfan Analysis. The ADPAC-AOACR program is based on a flexible multiple blocked grid discretization scheme permitting coupled 2-D/3-D mesh block solutions with application to a wide variety of geometries. For convenience, several standard mesh block structures are described for turbomachinery applications. Aerodynamic calculations are based on a four-stage Runge-Kutta time-marching finite volume solution technique with added numerical dissipation. Steady flow predictions are accelerated by a multigrid procedure. Numerical calculations are compared with experimental data for several test cases to demonstrate the utility of this approach for predicting the aerodynamics of modern turbomachinery configurations employing multiple blade rows.

A new model of cavern diameter based on a validated CFD study on stirring of a highly shear-thinning fluid.

PubMed

Story, Anna; Jaworski, Zdzisław

2017-01-01

Results of numerical simulations of momentum transfer for a highly shear-thinning fluid (0.2% Carbopol) in a stirred tank equipped with a Prochem Maxflo T type impeller are presented. The simulation results were validated using LDA data and both tangential and axial force measurements in the laminar and early transitional flow range. A good agreement between the predicted and experimental results of the local fluid velocity components was found. From the predicted and experimental values of both tangential and axial forces, the power number, Po , and thrust number, Th , were also calculated. Values of the absolute relative deviations were below 4.0 and 10.5%, respectively, for Po and Th , which confirms a satisfactory agreement with experiments. An intensive mixing zone, known as cavern, was observed near the impeller. In this zone, the local values of fluid velocity, strain rate, Metzner-Otto coefficient, shear stress and intensity of energy dissipation were all characterized by strong variability. Based on the results of experimental study a new model using non-dimensional impeller force number was proposed to predict the cavern diameter. Comparative numerical simulations were also carried out for a Newtonian fluid (water) and their results were similarly well verified using LDA measurements, as well as experimental power number values.

Physics-Based Broadband Ground Motion Simulations in Near Fault Conditions: the L'Aquila (Italy) and the Upper Rhine Graben (France-Germany) Case of Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Gaudio, S.; Lancieri, M.; Hok, S.; Satriano, C.; Chartier, T.; Scotti, O.; Bernard, P.

2016-12-01

Predictions of realistic ground motion for potential future earthquakes are always an interesting task for seismologists and are also the main objective of seismic hazard assessment. While, on one hand, numerical simulations have become more and more accurate and several different techniques have been developed, on the other hand ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have become a powerful instrument (due to great improvement of seismic strong motion networks providing a large amount of data). Nevertheless GMPEs do not represent the whole variety of source processes and this can lead to incorrect estimates especially in the near fault conditions because of the lack of records of large earthquakes at short distances. In such cases, physics-based ground motion simulations can be a valid tool to complement prediction equations for scenario studies, provided that both source and propagation are accurately described. We present here a comparison between numerical simulations performed in near fault conditions using two different kinematic source models, which are based on different assumptions and parameterizations: the "k-2 model" and the "fractal model". Wave propagation is taken into account using hybrid Green's function (HGF), which consists in coupling numerical Green's function with an empirical Green's function (EGF) approach. The advantage of this technique is that it does not require a very detailed knowledge of the propagation medium, but requires availability of high quality records of small earthquakes in the target area. The first application we show is on L'Aquila 2009 M 6.3 earthquake, where the main event records provide a benchmark for the synthetic waveforms. Here we can clearly observe which are the limitations of these techniques and investigate which are the physical parameters that are effectively controlling the ground motion level. The second application is a blind test on Upper Rhine Graben (URG) where active faults producing micro seismic activity are very close to sites of interest needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. Finally we will perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the URG using numerical simulations to define input ground motion for different scenarios and compare them with a classical probabilistic study based on GMPEs.

The generalized scattering coefficient method for plane wave scattering in layered structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu; Li, Chao; Wang, Huai-Yu; Zhou, Yun-Song

2017-02-01

The generalized scattering coefficient (GSC) method is pedagogically derived and employed to study the scattering of plane waves in homogeneous and inhomogeneous layered structures. The numerical stabilities and accuracies of this method and other commonly used numerical methods are discussed and compared. For homogeneous layered structures, concise scattering formulas with clear physical interpretations and strong numerical stability are obtained by introducing the GSCs. For inhomogeneous layered structures, three numerical methods are employed: the staircase approximation method, the power series expansion method, and the differential equation based on the GSCs. We investigate the accuracies and convergence behaviors of these methods by comparing their predictions to the exact results. The conclusions are as follows. The staircase approximation method has a slow convergence in spite of its simple and intuitive implementation, and a fine stratification within the inhomogeneous layer is required for obtaining accurate results. The expansion method results are sensitive to the expansion order, and the treatment becomes very complicated for relatively complex configurations, which restricts its applicability. By contrast, the GSC-based differential equation possesses a simple implementation while providing fast and accurate results.

A link prediction method for heterogeneous networks based on BP neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ji-chao; Zhao, Dan-ling; Ge, Bing-Feng; Yang, Ke-Wei; Chen, Ying-Wu

2018-04-01

Most real-world systems, composed of different types of objects connected via many interconnections, can be abstracted as various complex heterogeneous networks. Link prediction for heterogeneous networks is of great significance for mining missing links and reconfiguring networks according to observed information, with considerable applications in, for example, friend and location recommendations and disease-gene candidate detection. In this paper, we put forward a novel integrated framework, called MPBP (Meta-Path feature-based BP neural network model), to predict multiple types of links for heterogeneous networks. More specifically, the concept of meta-path is introduced, followed by the extraction of meta-path features for heterogeneous networks. Next, based on the extracted meta-path features, a supervised link prediction model is built with a three-layer BP neural network. Then, the solution algorithm of the proposed link prediction model is put forward to obtain predicted results by iteratively training the network. Last, numerical experiments on the dataset of examples of a gene-disease network and a combat network are conducted to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed MPBP. It shows that the MPBP with very good performance is superior to the baseline methods.

In silico platform for predicting and initiating β-turns in a protein at desired locations.

PubMed

Singh, Harinder; Singh, Sandeep; Raghava, Gajendra P S

2015-05-01

Numerous studies have been performed for analysis and prediction of β-turns in a protein. This study focuses on analyzing, predicting, and designing of β-turns to understand the preference of amino acids in β-turn formation. We analyzed around 20,000 PDB chains to understand the preference of residues or pair of residues at different positions in β-turns. Based on the results, a propensity-based method has been developed for predicting β-turns with an accuracy of 82%. We introduced a new approach entitled "Turn level prediction method," which predicts the complete β-turn rather than focusing on the residues in a β-turn. Finally, we developed BetaTPred3, a Random forest based method for predicting β-turns by utilizing various features of four residues present in β-turns. The BetaTPred3 achieved an accuracy of 79% with 0.51 MCC that is comparable or better than existing methods on BT426 dataset. Additionally, models were developed to predict β-turn types with better performance than other methods available in the literature. In order to improve the quality of prediction of turns, we developed prediction models on a large and latest dataset of 6376 nonredundant protein chains. Based on this study, a web server has been developed for prediction of β-turns and their types in proteins. This web server also predicts minimum number of mutations required to initiate or break a β-turn in a protein at specified location of a protein. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Review of Element-Based Galerkin Methods for Numerical Weather Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-01

with body forces to model the effects of gravity and the Earth’s rotation (i.e. Coriolis force). Although the gravitational force varies with both...more phenomena (e.g. resolving non-hydrostatic effects , incorporating more complex moisture parameterizations), their appetite for High Performance...operation effectively ). For instance, the ST-based model NOGAPS, used by the U. S. Navy, could not scale beyond 150 processes at typical resolutions [119

Numerical Calculations of 3-D High-Lift Flows and Comparison with Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Compton, William B, III

2015-01-01

Solutions were obtained with the Navier-Stokes CFD code TLNS3D to predict the flow about the NASA Trapezoidal Wing, a high-lift wing composed of three elements: the main-wing element, a deployed leading-edge slat, and a deployed trailing-edge flap. Turbulence was modeled by the Spalart-Allmaras one-equation turbulence model. One case with massive separation was repeated using Menter's two-equation SST (Menter's Shear Stress Transport) k-omega turbulence model in an attempt to improve the agreement with experiment. The investigation was conducted at a free stream Mach number of 0.2, and at angles of attack ranging from 10.004 degrees to 34.858 degrees. The Reynolds number based on the mean aerodynamic chord of the wing was 4.3 x 10 (sup 6). Compared to experiment, the numerical procedure predicted the surface pressures very well at angles of attack in the linear range of the lift. However, computed maximum lift was 5% low. Drag was mainly under predicted. The procedure correctly predicted several well-known trends and features of high-lift flows, such as off-body separation. The two turbulence models yielded significantly different solutions for the repeated case.

Numerical modeling of particle generation from ozone reactions with human-worn clothing in indoor environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Aakash C.; Lin, Chao-Hsin; Chen, Qingyan

2015-02-01

Ozone-terpene reactions are important sources of indoor ultrafine particles (UFPs), a potential health hazard for human beings. Humans themselves act as possible sites for ozone-initiated particle generation through reactions with squalene (a terpene) that is present in their skin, hair, and clothing. This investigation developed a numerical model to probe particle generation from ozone reactions with clothing worn by humans. The model was based on particle generation measured in an environmental chamber as well as physical formulations of particle nucleation, condensational growth, and deposition. In five out of the six test cases, the model was able to predict particle size distributions reasonably well. The failure in the remaining case demonstrated the fundamental limitations of nucleation models. The model that was developed was used to predict particle generation under various building and airliner cabin conditions. These predictions indicate that ozone reactions with human-worn clothing could be an important source of UFPs in densely occupied classrooms and airliner cabins. Those reactions could account for about 40% of the total UFPs measured on a Boeing 737-700 flight. The model predictions at this stage are indicative and should be improved further.

Development of a 3D numerical methodology for fast prediction of gun blast induced loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, E.; Lagasco, F.

2014-05-01

In this paper, the development of a methodology based on semi-empirical models from the literature to carry out 3D prediction of pressure loading on surfaces adjacent to a weapon system during firing is presented. This loading is consequent to the impact of the blast wave generated by the projectile exiting the muzzle bore. When exceeding a pressure threshold level, loading is potentially capable to induce unwanted damage to nearby hard structures as well as frangible panels or electronic equipment. The implemented model shows the ability to quickly predict the distribution of the blast wave parameters over three-dimensional complex geometry surfaces when the weapon design and emplacement data as well as propellant and projectile characteristics are available. Considering these capabilities, the use of the proposed methodology is envisaged as desirable in the preliminary design phase of the combat system to predict adverse effects and then enable to identify the most appropriate countermeasures. By providing a preliminary but sensitive estimate of the operative environmental loading, this numerical means represents a good alternative to more powerful, but time consuming advanced computational fluid dynamics tools, which use can, thus, be limited to the final phase of the design.

Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

1999-01-01

Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

Numerical Simulations of Single Flow Element in a Nuclear Thermal Thrust Chamber

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Gary; Ito, Yasushi; Ross, Doug; Chen, Yen-Sen; Wang, Ten-See

2007-01-01

The objective of this effort is to develop an efficient and accurate computational methodology to predict both detailed and global thermo-fluid environments of a single now element in a hypothetical solid-core nuclear thermal thrust chamber assembly, Several numerical and multi-physics thermo-fluid models, such as chemical reactions, turbulence, conjugate heat transfer, porosity, and power generation, were incorporated into an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics solver. The numerical simulations of a single now element provide a detailed thermo-fluid environment for thermal stress estimation and insight for possible occurrence of mid-section corrosion. In addition, detailed conjugate heat transfer simulations were employed to develop the porosity models for efficient pressure drop and thermal load calculations.

Detailed Aerodynamic Analysis of a Shrouded Tail Rotor Using an Unstructured Mesh Flow Solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hee Dong; Kwon, Oh Joon

The detailed aerodynamics of a shrouded tail rotor in hover has been numerically studied using a parallel inviscid flow solver on unstructured meshes. The numerical method is based on a cell-centered finite-volume discretization and an implicit Gauss-Seidel time integration. The calculation was made for a single blade by imposing a periodic boundary condition between adjacent rotor blades. The grid periodicity was also imposed at the periodic boundary planes to avoid numerical inaccuracy resulting from solution interpolation. The results were compared with available experimental data and those from a disk vortex theory for validation. It was found that realistic three-dimensional modeling is important for the prediction of detailed aerodynamics of shrouded rotors including the tip clearance gap flow.

Numerical studies of unsteady two dimensional subsonic flows using the ICE method. Ph.D. Thesis - Toledo Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieber, P. R.

1973-01-01

A numerical program was developed to compute transient compressible and incompressible laminar flows in two dimensions with multicomponent mixing and chemical reaction. The algorithm used the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory ICE (Implicit Continuous-Fluid Eulerian) method as its base. The program can compute both high and low speed compressible flows. The numerical program incorporating the stabilization techniques was quite successful in treating both old and new problems. Detailed calculations of coaxial flow very close to the entry plane were possible. The program treated complex flows such as the formation and downstream growth of a recirculation cell. An implicit solution of the species equation predicted mixing and reaction rates which compared favorably with the literature.

Multiscale Mechano-Biological Finite Element Modelling of Oncoplastic Breast Surgery—Numerical Study towards Surgical Planning and Cosmetic Outcome Prediction

PubMed Central

Eiben, Bjoern; Hipwell, John H.; Williams, Norman R.; Keshtgar, Mo; Hawkes, David J.

2016-01-01

Surgical treatment for early-stage breast carcinoma primarily necessitates breast conserving therapy (BCT), where the tumour is removed while preserving the breast shape. To date, there have been very few attempts to develop accurate and efficient computational tools that could be used in the clinical environment for pre-operative planning and oncoplastic breast surgery assessment. Moreover, from the breast cancer research perspective, there has been very little effort to model complex mechano-biological processes involved in wound healing. We address this by providing an integrated numerical framework that can simulate the therapeutic effects of BCT over the extended period of treatment and recovery. A validated, three-dimensional, multiscale finite element procedure that simulates breast tissue deformations and physiological wound healing is presented. In the proposed methodology, a partitioned, continuum-based mathematical model for tissue recovery and angiogenesis, and breast tissue deformation is considered. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed numerical scheme is illustrated through patient-specific representative examples. Wound repair and contraction numerical analyses of real MRI-derived breast geometries are investigated, and the final predictions of the breast shape are validated against post-operative follow-up optical surface scans from four patients. Mean (standard deviation) breast surface distance errors in millimetres of 3.1 (±3.1), 3.2 (±2.4), 2.8 (±2.7) and 4.1 (±3.3) were obtained, demonstrating the ability of the surgical simulation tool to predict, pre-operatively, the outcome of BCT to clinically useful accuracy. PMID:27466815

A system structure for predictive relations in penetration mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korjack, Thomas A.

1992-02-01

The availability of a software system yielding quick numerical models to predict ballistic behavior is a requisite for any research laboratory engaged in material behavior. What is especially true about accessibility of rapid prototyping for terminal impaction is the enhancement of a system structure which will direct the specific material and impact situation towards a specific predictive model. This is of particular importance when the ranges of validity are at stake and the pertinent constraints associated with the impact are unknown. Hence, a compilation of semiempirical predictive penetration relations for various physical phenomena has been organized into a data structure for the purpose of developing a knowledge-based decision aided expert system to predict the terminal ballistic behavior of projectiles and targets. The ranges of validity and constraints of operation of each model were examined and cast into a decision tree structure to include target type, target material, projectile types, projectile materials, attack configuration, and performance or damage measures. This decision system implements many penetration relations, identifies formulas that match user-given conditions, and displays the predictive relation coincident with the match in addition to a numerical solution. The physical regimes under consideration encompass the hydrodynamic, transitional, and solid; the targets are either semi-infinite or plate, and the projectiles include kinetic and chemical energy. A preliminary databases has been constructed to allow further development of inductive and deductive reasoning techniques applied to ballistic situations involving terminal mechanics.

Performance of a coupled lagged ensemble weather and river runoff prediction model system for the Alpine Ammer River catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiatek, G.; Kunstmann, H.; Werhahn, J.

2012-04-01

The Ammer River catchment located in the Bavarian Ammergau Alps and alpine forelands, Germany, represents with elevations reaching 2185 m and annual mean precipitation between1100 and 2000 mm a very demanding test ground for a river runoff prediction system. Large flooding events in 1999 and 2005 motivated the development of a physically based prediction tool in this area. Such a tool is the coupled high resolution numerical weather and river runoff forecasting system AM-POE that is being studied in several configurations in various experiments starting from the year 2005. Corner stones of the coupled system are the hydrological water balance model WaSiM-ETH run at 100 m grid resolution, the numerical weather prediction model (NWP) MM5 driven at 3.5 km grid cell resolution and the Perl Object Environment (POE) framework. POE implements the input data download from various sources, the input data provision via SOAP based WEB services as well as the runs of the hydrology model both with observed and with NWP predicted meteorology input. The one way coupled system utilizes a lagged ensemble prediction system (EPS) taking into account combination of recent and previous NWP forecasts. Results obtained in the years 2005-2011 reveal that river runoff simulations depict high correlation with observed runoff when driven with monitored observations in hindcast experiments. The ability to runoff forecasts is depending on lead times in the lagged ensemble prediction and shows still limitations resulting from errors in timing and total amount of the predicted precipitation in the complex mountainous area. The presentation describes the system implementation, and demonstrates the application of the POE framework in networking, distributed computing and in the setup of various experiments as well as long term results of the system application in the years 2005 - 2011.

Coupling of EIT with computational lung modeling for predicting patient-specific ventilatory responses.

PubMed

Roth, Christian J; Becher, Tobias; Frerichs, Inéz; Weiler, Norbert; Wall, Wolfgang A

2017-04-01

Providing optimal personalized mechanical ventilation for patients with acute or chronic respiratory failure is still a challenge within a clinical setting for each case anew. In this article, we integrate electrical impedance tomography (EIT) monitoring into a powerful patient-specific computational lung model to create an approach for personalizing protective ventilatory treatment. The underlying computational lung model is based on a single computed tomography scan and able to predict global airflow quantities, as well as local tissue aeration and strains for any ventilation maneuver. For validation, a novel "virtual EIT" module is added to our computational lung model, allowing to simulate EIT images based on the patient's thorax geometry and the results of our numerically predicted tissue aeration. Clinically measured EIT images are not used to calibrate the computational model. Thus they provide an independent method to validate the computational predictions at high temporal resolution. The performance of this coupling approach has been tested in an example patient with acute respiratory distress syndrome. The method shows good agreement between computationally predicted and clinically measured airflow data and EIT images. These results imply that the proposed framework can be used for numerical prediction of patient-specific responses to certain therapeutic measures before applying them to an actual patient. In the long run, definition of patient-specific optimal ventilation protocols might be assisted by computational modeling. NEW & NOTEWORTHY In this work, we present a patient-specific computational lung model that is able to predict global and local ventilatory quantities for a given patient and any selected ventilation protocol. For the first time, such a predictive lung model is equipped with a virtual electrical impedance tomography module allowing real-time validation of the computed results with the patient measurements. First promising results obtained in an acute respiratory distress syndrome patient show the potential of this approach for personalized computationally guided optimization of mechanical ventilation in future. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Dilatancy Criteria for Salt Cavern Design: A Comparison Between Stress- and Strain-Based Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labaune, P.; Rouabhi, A.; Tijani, M.; Blanco-Martín, L.; You, T.

2018-02-01

This paper presents a new approach for salt cavern design, based on the use of the onset of dilatancy as a design threshold. In the proposed approach, a rheological model that includes dilatancy at the constitutive level is developed, and a strain-based dilatancy criterion is defined. As compared to classical design methods that consist in simulating cavern behavior through creep laws (fitted on long-term tests) and then using a criterion (derived from short-terms tests or experience) to determine the stability of the excavation, the proposed approach is consistent both with short- and long-term conditions. The new strain-based dilatancy criterion is compared to a stress-based dilatancy criterion through numerical simulations of salt caverns under cyclic loading conditions. The dilatancy zones predicted by the strain-based criterion are larger than the ones predicted by the stress-based criteria, which is conservative yet constructive for design purposes.

Assessment of a numerical model to reproduce event‐scale erosion and deposition distributions in a braided river

PubMed Central

Measures, R.; Hicks, D. M.; Brasington, J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Numerical morphological modeling of braided rivers, using a physics‐based approach, is increasingly used as a technique to explore controls on river pattern and, from an applied perspective, to simulate the impact of channel modifications. This paper assesses a depth‐averaged nonuniform sediment model (Delft3D) to predict the morphodynamics of a 2.5 km long reach of the braided Rees River, New Zealand, during a single high‐flow event. Evaluation of model performance primarily focused upon using high‐resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of Difference, derived from a fusion of terrestrial laser scanning and optical empirical bathymetric mapping, to compare observed and predicted patterns of erosion and deposition and reach‐scale sediment budgets. For the calibrated model, this was supplemented with planform metrics (e.g., braiding intensity). Extensive sensitivity analysis of model functions and parameters was executed, including consideration of numerical scheme for bed load component calculations, hydraulics, bed composition, bed load transport and bed slope effects, bank erosion, and frequency of calculations. Total predicted volumes of erosion and deposition corresponded well to those observed. The difference between predicted and observed volumes of erosion was less than the factor of two that characterizes the accuracy of the Gaeuman et al. bed load transport formula. Grain size distributions were best represented using two φ intervals. For unsteady flows, results were sensitive to the morphological time scale factor. The approach of comparing observed and predicted morphological sediment budgets shows the value of using natural experiment data sets for model testing. Sensitivity results are transferable to guide Delft3D applications to other rivers. PMID:27708477

Assessment of a numerical model to reproduce event-scale erosion and deposition distributions in a braided river.

PubMed

Williams, R D; Measures, R; Hicks, D M; Brasington, J

2016-08-01

Numerical morphological modeling of braided rivers, using a physics-based approach, is increasingly used as a technique to explore controls on river pattern and, from an applied perspective, to simulate the impact of channel modifications. This paper assesses a depth-averaged nonuniform sediment model (Delft3D) to predict the morphodynamics of a 2.5 km long reach of the braided Rees River, New Zealand, during a single high-flow event. Evaluation of model performance primarily focused upon using high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of Difference, derived from a fusion of terrestrial laser scanning and optical empirical bathymetric mapping, to compare observed and predicted patterns of erosion and deposition and reach-scale sediment budgets. For the calibrated model, this was supplemented with planform metrics (e.g., braiding intensity). Extensive sensitivity analysis of model functions and parameters was executed, including consideration of numerical scheme for bed load component calculations, hydraulics, bed composition, bed load transport and bed slope effects, bank erosion, and frequency of calculations. Total predicted volumes of erosion and deposition corresponded well to those observed. The difference between predicted and observed volumes of erosion was less than the factor of two that characterizes the accuracy of the Gaeuman et al. bed load transport formula. Grain size distributions were best represented using two φ intervals. For unsteady flows, results were sensitive to the morphological time scale factor. The approach of comparing observed and predicted morphological sediment budgets shows the value of using natural experiment data sets for model testing. Sensitivity results are transferable to guide Delft3D applications to other rivers.

Towards a Social Science of the Social: The Contribution of Praxeological Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Formosinho, Joao; Formosinho, Julia Oliveira

2012-01-01

Educational research developed initially using the natural science model based on the positivist tradition. Education was then seen as an application of the positivist science thus produced. This research could predict some effects but not explain the processes through which these effects came about. This exclusively numerical representation of…

Low gravity two-phase flow with heat transfer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antar, Basil N.

1991-01-01

A realistic model for the transfer line chilldown operation under low-gravity conditions is developed to provide a comprehensive predictive capability on the behavior of liquid vapor, two-phase diabatic flows in pipes. The tasks described involve the development of numerical code and the establishment of the necessary experimental data base for low-gravity simulation.

Chemical Transport in a Fissured Rock: Verification of a Numerical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmuson, A.; Narasimhan, T. N.; Neretnieks, I.

1982-10-01

Numerical models for simulating chemical transport in fissured rocks constitute powerful tools for evaluating the acceptability of geological nuclear waste repositories. Due to the very long-term, high toxicity of some nuclear waste products, the models are required to predict, in certain cases, the spatial and temporal distribution of chemical concentration less than 0.001% of the concentration released from the repository. Whether numerical models can provide such accuracies is a major question addressed in the present work. To this end we have verified a numerical model, TRUMP, which solves the advective diffusion equation in general three dimensions, with or without decay and source terms. The method is based on an integrated finite difference approach. The model was verified against known analytic solution of the one-dimensional advection-diffusion problem, as well as the problem of advection-diffusion in a system of parallel fractures separated by spherical particles. The studies show that as long as the magnitude of advectance is equal to or less than that of conductance for the closed surface bounding any volume element in the region (that is, numerical Peclet number <2), the numerical method can indeed match the analytic solution within errors of ±10-3% or less. The realistic input parameters used in the sample calculations suggest that such a range of Peclet numbers is indeed likely to characterize deep groundwater systems in granitic and ancient argillaceous systems. Thus TRUMP in its present form does provide a viable tool for use in nuclear waste evaluation studies. A sensitivity analysis based on the analytic solution suggests that the errors in prediction introduced due to uncertainties in input parameters are likely to be larger than the computational inaccuracies introduced by the numerical model. Currently, a disadvantage in the TRUMP model is that the iterative method of solving the set of simultaneous equations is rather slow when time constants vary widely over the flow region. Although the iterative solution may be very desirable for large three-dimensional problems in order to minimize computer storage, it seems desirable to use a direct solver technique in conjunction with the mixed explicit-implicit approach whenever possible. Work in this direction is in progress.

Temperature-dependent infrared optical properties of 3C-, 4H- and 6H-SiC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Zhen; Liu, Linhua; Li, Liangsheng; Bao, Hua

2018-05-01

The temperature-dependent optical properties of cubic (3C) and hexagonal (4H and 6H) silicon carbide are investigated in the infrared range of 2-16 μm both by experimental measurements and numerical simulations. The temperature in experimental measurement is up to 593 K, while the numerical method can predict the optical properties at elevated temperatures. To investigate the temperature effect, the temperature-dependent damping parameter in the Lorentz model is calculated based on anharmonic lattice dynamics method, in which the harmonic and anharmonic interatomic force constants are determined from first-principles calculations. The infrared phonon modes of silicon carbide are determined from first-principles calculations. Based on first-principles calculations, the Lorentz model is parameterized without any experimental fitting data and the temperature effect is considered. In our investigations, we find that the increasing temperature induces a small reduction of the reflectivity in the range of 10-13 μm. More importantly, it also shows that our first-principles calculations can predict the infrared optical properties at high-temperature effectively which is not easy to be obtained through experimental measurements.

Towards inverse modeling of turbidity currents: The inverse lock-exchange problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesshafft, Lutz; Meiburg, Eckart; Kneller, Ben; Marsden, Alison

2011-04-01

A new approach is introduced for turbidite modeling, leveraging the potential of computational fluid dynamics methods to simulate the flow processes that led to turbidite formation. The practical use of numerical flow simulation for the purpose of turbidite modeling so far is hindered by the need to specify parameters and initial flow conditions that are a priori unknown. The present study proposes a method to determine optimal simulation parameters via an automated optimization process. An iterative procedure matches deposit predictions from successive flow simulations against available localized reference data, as in practice may be obtained from well logs, and aims at convergence towards the best-fit scenario. The final result is a prediction of the entire deposit thickness and local grain size distribution. The optimization strategy is based on a derivative-free, surrogate-based technique. Direct numerical simulations are performed to compute the flow dynamics. A proof of concept is successfully conducted for the simple test case of a two-dimensional lock-exchange turbidity current. The optimization approach is demonstrated to accurately retrieve the initial conditions used in a reference calculation.

Numerical study on wave loads and motions of two ships advancing in waves by using three-dimensional translating-pulsating source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yong; Dong, Wen-Cai

2013-08-01

A frequency domain analysis method based on the three-dimensional translating-pulsating (3DTP) source Green function is developed to investigate wave loads and free motions of two ships advancing on parallel course in waves. Two experiments are carried out respectively to measure the wave loads and the freemotions for a pair of side-byside arranged ship models advancing with an identical speed in head regular waves. For comparison, each model is also tested alone. Predictions obtained by the present solution are found in favorable agreement with the model tests and are more accurate than the traditional method based on the three dimensional pulsating (3DP) source Green function. Numerical resonances and peak shift can be found in the 3DP predictions, which result from the wave energy trapped in the gap between two ships and the extremely inhomogeneous wave load distribution on each hull. However, they can be eliminated by 3DTP, in which the speed affects the free surface and most of the wave energy can be escaped from the gap. Both the experiment and the present prediction show that hydrodynamic interaction effects on wave loads and free motions are significant. The present solver may serve as a validated tool to predict wave loads and motions of two vessels under replenishment at sea, and may help to evaluate the hydrodynamic interaction effects on the ships safety in replenishment operation.

Weather and seasonal climate prediction for South America using a multi-model superensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaves, Rosane R.; Ross, Robert S.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2005-11-01

This work examines the feasibility of weather and seasonal climate predictions for South America using the multi-model synthetic superensemble approach for climate, and the multi-model conventional superensemble approach for numerical weather prediction, both developed at Florida State University (FSU). The effect on seasonal climate forecasts of the number of models used in the synthetic superensemble is investigated. It is shown that the synthetic superensemble approach for climate and the conventional superensemble approach for numerical weather prediction can reduce the errors over South America in seasonal climate prediction and numerical weather prediction.For climate prediction, a suite of 13 models is used. The forecast lead-time is 1 month for the climate forecasts, which consist of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts. The multi-model ensemble is comprised of four versions of the FSU-Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, seven models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER), a version of the Community Climate Model (CCM3), and a version of the predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The results show that conditions over South America are appropriately simulated by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE) in comparison to observations and that the skill of this approach increases with the use of additional models in the ensemble. When compared to observations, the forecasts are generally better than those from both a single climate model and the multi-model ensemble mean, for the variables tested in this study.For numerical weather prediction, the conventional Florida State University Superensemble (FSUSE) is used to predict the mass and motion fields over South America. Predictions of mean sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, and 850 hPa wind are made with a multi-model superensemble comprised of six global models for the period January, February, and December of 2000. The six global models are from the following forecast centers: FSU, Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), and Recherche en Prevision Numerique (RPN). Predictions of precipitation are made for the period January, February, and December of 2001 with a multi-analysis-multi-model superensemble where, in addition to the six forecast models just mentioned, five additional versions of the FSU model are used in the ensemble, each with a different initialization (analysis) based on different physical initialization procedures. On the basis of observations, the results show that the FSUSE provides the best forecasts of the mass and motion field variables to forecast day 5, when compared to both the models comprising the ensemble and the multi-model ensemble mean during the wet season of December-February over South America. Individual case studies show that the FSUSE provides excellent predictions of rainfall for particular synoptic events to forecast day 3. Copyright

Electrowetting-driven spreading and jumping of drops in oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Jiwoo; Lee, Sang Joon

2013-11-01

Electrowetting-based practical applications include digital microfluidics, liquid lenses, and reflective displays. Most of them are performed in water/oil system, because oil medium reduces the contact-angle hysteresis and prevents drop evaporation. In this study, the effects of drop volume, oil viscosity, and applied voltage on the dynamic behaviors of spreading drops, such as transition of spreading pattern and response time, are investigated. Interestingly, jumping phenomena of drops are observed in oil when the applied voltage is turned off after reaching the electrowetted equilibrium radius of drops. A numerical model to predict the transient behavior of jumping drops is formulated based on the phase-field method. The numerical results for the transient deformation of jumping drops show quantitative agreement with the experimental results.

Electro-magneto interaction in fractional Green-Naghdi thermoelastic solid with a cylindrical cavity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzat, M. A.; El-Bary, A. A.

2018-01-01

A unified mathematical model of Green-Naghdi's thermoelasticty theories (GN), based on fractional time-derivative of heat transfer is constructed. The model is applied to solve a one-dimensional problem of a perfect conducting unbounded body with a cylindrical cavity subjected to sinusoidal pulse heating in the presence of an axial uniform magnetic field. Laplace transform techniques are used to get the general analytical solutions in Laplace domain, and the inverse Laplace transforms based on Fourier expansion techniques are numerically implemented to obtain the numerical solutions in time domain. Comparisons are made with the results predicted by the two theories. The effects of the fractional derivative parameter on thermoelastic fields for different theories are discussed.

Two improvements on numerical simulation of 2-DOF vortex-induced vibration with low mass ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Zhuang; Ni, Wen-chi; Zhang, Xu; Sun, Li-ping

2017-12-01

Till now, there have been lots of researches on numerical simulation of vortex-induced vibration. Acceptable results have been obtained for fixed cylinders with low Reynolds number. However, for responses of 2-DOF vortex-induced vibration with low mass ratio, the accuracy is not satisfactory, especially for the maximum amplitudes. In Jauvtis and Williamson's work, the maximum amplitude of the cylinder with low mass ratio m*=2.6 can reach as large as 1.5 D to be called as the "super-upper branch", but from current literatures, few simulation results can achieve such value, even fail to capture the upper branch. Besides, it is found that the amplitude decays too fast in the lower branch with the RANS-based turbulence model. The reason is likely to be the defects of the turbulence model itself in the prediction of unsteady separated flows as well as the unreasonable setting of the numerical simulation parameters. Aiming at above issues, a modified turbulence model is proposed in this paper, and the effect of the acceleration of flow field on the response of vortex-induced vibration is studied based on OpenFOAM. By analyzing the responses of amplitude, phase and trajectory, frequency and vortex mode, it is proved that the vortex-induced vibration can be predicted accurately with the modified turbulence model under appropriate flow field acceleration.

A reduced order model based on Kalman filtering for sequential data assimilation of turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldi, M.; Poux, A.

2017-10-01

A Kalman filter based sequential estimator is presented in this work. The estimator is integrated in the structure of segregated solvers for the analysis of incompressible flows. This technique provides an augmented flow state integrating available observation in the CFD model, naturally preserving a zero-divergence condition for the velocity field. Because of the prohibitive costs associated with a complete Kalman Filter application, two model reduction strategies have been proposed and assessed. These strategies dramatically reduce the increase in computational costs of the model, which can be quantified in an augmentation of 10%- 15% with respect to the classical numerical simulation. In addition, an extended analysis of the behavior of the numerical model covariance Q has been performed. Optimized values are strongly linked to the truncation error of the discretization procedure. The estimator has been applied to the analysis of a number of test cases exhibiting increasing complexity, including turbulent flow configurations. The results show that the augmented flow successfully improves the prediction of the physical quantities investigated, even when the observation is provided in a limited region of the physical domain. In addition, the present work suggests that these Data Assimilation techniques, which are at an embryonic stage of development in CFD, may have the potential to be pushed even further using the augmented prediction as a powerful tool for the optimization of the free parameters in the numerical simulation.

Non-Markovian closure models for large eddy simulations using the Mori-Zwanzig formalism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parish, Eric J.; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-01-01

This work uses the Mori-Zwanzig (M-Z) formalism, a concept originating from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, as a basis for the development of coarse-grained models of turbulence. The mechanics of the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) are considered, and insight gained from the orthogonal dynamics equation is used as a starting point for model development. A class of subgrid models is considered which represent nonlocal behavior via a finite memory approximation [Stinis, arXiv:1211.4285 (2012)], the length of which is determined using a heuristic that is related to the spectral radius of the Jacobian of the resolved variables. The resulting models are intimately tied to the underlying numerical resolution and are capable of approximating non-Markovian effects. Numerical experiments on the Burgers equation demonstrate that the M-Z-based models can accurately predict the temporal evolution of the total kinetic energy and the total dissipation rate at varying mesh resolutions. The trajectory of each resolved mode in phase space is accurately predicted for cases where the coarse graining is moderate. Large eddy simulations (LESs) of homogeneous isotropic turbulence and the Taylor-Green Vortex show that the M-Z-based models are able to provide excellent predictions, accurately capturing the subgrid contribution to energy transfer. Last, LESs of fully developed channel flow demonstrate the applicability of M-Z-based models to nondecaying problems. It is notable that the form of the closure is not imposed by the modeler, but is rather derived from the mathematics of the coarse graining, highlighting the potential of M-Z-based techniques to define LES closures.

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

PubMed

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

Error discrimination of an operational hydrological forecasting system at a national scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, F.; Brauchli, T.

2010-09-01

The use of operational hydrological forecasting systems is recommended for hydropower production as well as flood management. However, the forecast uncertainties can be important and lead to bad decisions such as false alarms and inappropriate reservoir management of hydropower plants. In order to improve the forecasting systems, it is important to discriminate the different sources of uncertainties. To achieve this task, reanalysis of past predictions can be realized and provide information about the structure of the global uncertainty. In order to discriminate between uncertainty due to the weather numerical model and uncertainty due to the rainfall-runoff model, simulations assuming perfect weather forecast must be realized. This contribution presents the spatial analysis of the weather uncertainties and their influence on the river discharge prediction of a few different river basins where an operational forecasting system exists. The forecast is based on the RS 3.0 system [1], [2], which is also running the open Internet platform www.swissrivers.ch [3]. The uncertainty related to the hydrological model is compared to the uncertainty related to the weather prediction. A comparison between numerous weather prediction models [4] at different lead times is also presented. The results highlight an important improving potential of both forecasting components: the hydrological rainfall-runoff model and the numerical weather prediction models. The hydrological processes must be accurately represented during the model calibration procedure, while weather prediction models suffer from a systematic spatial bias. REFERENCES [1] Garcia, J., Jordan, F., Dubois, J. & Boillat, J.-L. 2007. "Routing System II, Modélisation d'écoulements dans des systèmes hydrauliques", Communication LCH n° 32, Ed. Prof. A. Schleiss, Lausanne [2] Jordan, F. 2007. Modèle de prévision et de gestion des crues - optimisation des opérations des aménagements hydroélectriques à accumulation pour la réduction des débits de crue, thèse de doctorat n° 3711, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale, Lausanne [3] Keller, R. 2009. "Le débit des rivières au peigne fin", Revue Technique Suisse, N°7/8 2009, Swiss engineering RTS, UTS SA, Lausanne, p. 11 [4] Kaufmann, P., Schubiger, F. & Binder, P. 2003. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model : eight years of experience, Hydrology and Earth System

Meta-path based heterogeneous combat network link prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jichao; Ge, Bingfeng; Yang, Kewei; Chen, Yingwu; Tan, Yuejin

2017-09-01

The combat system-of-systems in high-tech informative warfare, composed of many interconnected combat systems of different types, can be regarded as a type of complex heterogeneous network. Link prediction for heterogeneous combat networks (HCNs) is of significant military value, as it facilitates reconfiguring combat networks to represent the complex real-world network topology as appropriate with observed information. This paper proposes a novel integrated methodology framework called HCNMP (HCN link prediction based on meta-path) to predict multiple types of links simultaneously for an HCN. More specifically, the concept of HCN meta-paths is introduced, through which the HCNMP can accumulate information by extracting different features of HCN links for all the six defined types. Next, an HCN link prediction model, based on meta-path features, is built to predict all types of links of the HCN simultaneously. Then, the solution algorithm for the HCN link prediction model is proposed, in which the prediction results are obtained by iteratively updating with the newly predicted results until the results in the HCN converge or reach a certain maximum iteration number. Finally, numerical experiments on the dataset of a real HCN are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HCNMP, in comparison with 30 baseline methods. The results show that the performance of the HCNMP is superior to those of the baseline methods.

Prediction of Sliding Friction Coefficient Based on a Novel Hybrid Molecular-Mechanical Model.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaogang; Zhang, Yali; Wang, Jianmei; Sheng, Chenxing; Li, Zhixiong

2018-08-01

Sliding friction is a complex phenomenon which arises from the mechanical and molecular interactions of asperities when examined in a microscale. To reveal and further understand the effects of micro scaled mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficient on overall frictional behavior, a hybrid molecular-mechanical model is developed to investigate the effects of main factors, including different loads and surface roughness values, on the sliding friction coefficient in a boundary lubrication condition. Numerical modelling was conducted using a deterministic contact model and based on the molecular-mechanical theory of friction. In the contact model, with given external loads and surface topographies, the pressure distribution, real contact area, and elastic/plastic deformation of each single asperity contact were calculated. Then asperity friction coefficient was predicted by the sum of mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficient. The mechanical component was mainly determined by the contact width and elastic/plastic deformation, and the molecular component was estimated as a function of the contact area and interfacial shear stress. Numerical results were compared with experimental results and a good agreement was obtained. The model was then used to predict friction coefficients in different operating and surface conditions. Numerical results explain why applied load has a minimum effect on the friction coefficients. They also provide insight into the effect of surface roughness on the mechanical and molecular components of friction coefficients. It is revealed that the mechanical component dominates the friction coefficient when the surface roughness is large (Rq > 0.2 μm), while the friction coefficient is mainly determined by the molecular component when the surface is relatively smooth (Rq < 0.2 μm). Furthermore, optimal roughness values for minimizing the friction coefficient are recommended.

Evaluation of a distributed catchment scale water balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troch, Peter A.; Mancini, Marco; Paniconi, Claudio; Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

The validity of some of the simplifying assumptions in a conceptual water balance model is investigated by comparing simulation results from the conceptual model with simulation results from a three-dimensional physically based numerical model and with field observations. We examine, in particular, assumptions and simplifications related to water table dynamics, vertical soil moisture and pressure head distributions, and subsurface flow contributions to stream discharge. The conceptual model relies on a topographic index to predict saturation excess runoff and on Philip's infiltration equation to predict infiltration excess runoff. The numerical model solves the three-dimensional Richards equation describing flow in variably saturated porous media, and handles seepage face boundaries, infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff production, and soil driven and atmosphere driven surface fluxes. The study catchments (a 7.2 sq km catchment and a 0.64 sq km subcatchment) are located in the North Appalachian ridge and valley region of eastern Pennsylvania. Hydrologic data collected during the MACHYDRO 90 field experiment are used to calibrate the models and to evaluate simulation results. It is found that water table dynamics as predicted by the conceptual model are close to the observations in a shallow water well and therefore, that a linear relationship between a topographic index and the local water table depth is found to be a reasonable assumption for catchment scale modeling. However, the hydraulic equilibrium assumption is not valid for the upper 100 cm layer of the unsaturated zone and a conceptual model that incorporates a root zone is suggested. Furthermore, theoretical subsurface flow characteristics from the conceptual model are found to be different from field observations, numerical simulation results, and theoretical baseflow recession characteristics based on Boussinesq's groundwater equation.

Young Children Bet On Their Numerical Skills: Metacognition in the Numerical Domain

PubMed Central

Vo, Vy A.; Li, Rosa; Kornell, Nate; Pouget, Alexandre; Cantlon, Jessica F.

2014-01-01

Metacognition, the ability to assess one’s own knowledge, has been targeted as a critical learning mechanism in mathematics education. Yet, the early childhood origins of metacognition have proven difficult to study. Using a novel nonverbal task and a comprehensive set of metacognitive measures, we provide the strongest evidence to date that young children are metacognitive. We show that children as young as 5 years make metacognitive “bets” on their numerical discriminations in a wagering task. However, contrary to previous reports from adults, children’s metacognition proved to be domain-specific: children’s metacognition in the numerical domain was unrelated to their metacognition in another domain (emotion discrimination). Moreover, children’s metacognitive ability in only the numerical domain predicted their school-based mathematics knowledge. The data provide novel evidence that metacognition is a fundamental, domain-dependent cognitive ability in children. The findings have implications for theories of uncertainty and reveal new avenues for training metacognition in children. PMID:24973137

Evaluation of TIGGE Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation in Distinct Climate Regions in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminyavari, Saleh; Saghafian, Bahram; Delavar, Majid

2018-04-01

The application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) products is increasing dramatically. Existing reports indicate that ensemble predictions have better skill than deterministic forecasts. In this study, numerical ensemble precipitation forecasts in the TIGGE database were evaluated using deterministic, dichotomous (yes/no), and probabilistic techniques over Iran for the period 2008-16. Thirteen rain gauges spread over eight homogeneous precipitation regimes were selected for evaluation. The Inverse Distance Weighting and Kriging methods were adopted for interpolation of the prediction values, downscaled to the stations at lead times of one to three days. To enhance the forecast quality, NWP values were post-processed via Bayesian Model Averaging. The results showed that ECMWF had better scores than other products. However, products of all centers underestimated precipitation in high precipitation regions while overestimating precipitation in other regions. This points to a systematic bias in forecasts and demands application of bias correction techniques. Based on dichotomous evaluation, NCEP did better at most stations, although all centers overpredicted the number of precipitation events. Compared to those of ECMWF and NCEP, UKMO yielded higher scores in mountainous regions, but performed poorly at other selected stations. Furthermore, the evaluations showed that all centers had better skill in wet than in dry seasons. The quality of post-processed predictions was better than those of the raw predictions. In conclusion, the accuracy of the NWP predictions made by the selected centers could be classified as medium over Iran, while post-processing of predictions is recommended to improve the quality.

26th International Symposium on Ballistics

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-16

judicious use of analytical predictions correlated with ballistic testing and post - test failure morphology investigations. •Our approach...ballistic predictions. The numerical predictions correlate well with the damage pattern. Post - Test Morphology Simulation Imbedded Steel Plate Removed Post ... Test •Numerical simulation of damage to embedded steel plate compares well with the post - test plate morphology •Multi-strike modeling in work

Employing Numerical Weather Models to Enhance Fire Weather and Fire Behavior Predictions

Treesearch

Joseph J. Charney; Lesley A. Fusina

2006-01-01

This paper presents an assessment of fire weather and fire behavior predictions produced by a numerical weather prediction model similar to those used by operational weather forecasters when preparing their forecasts. The PSU/NCAR MM5 model is used to simulate the weather conditions associated with three fire episodes in June 2005. Extreme fire behavior was reported...

Static bending deflection and free vibration analysis of moderate thick symmetric laminated plates using multidimensional wave digital filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Chien-Hsun

2018-06-01

This paper aims to develop a multidimensional wave digital filtering network for predicting static and dynamic behaviors of composite laminate based on the FSDT. The resultant network is, thus, an integrated platform that can perform not only the free vibration but also the bending deflection of moderate thick symmetric laminated plates with low plate side-to-thickness ratios (< = 20). Safeguarded by the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy stability condition with the least restriction in terms of optimization technique, the present method offers numerically high accuracy, stability and efficiency to proceed a wide range of modulus ratios for the FSDT laminated plates. Instead of using a constant shear correction factor (SCF) with a limited numerical accuracy for the bending deflection, an optimum SCF is particularly sought by looking for a minimum ratio of change in the transverse shear energy. This way, it can predict as good results in terms of accuracy for certain cases of bending deflection. Extensive simulation results carried out for the prediction of maximum bending deflection have demonstratively proven that the present method outperforms those based on the higher-order shear deformation and layerwise plate theories. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that shows an optimal selection of SCF can significantly increase the accuracy of FSDT-based laminates especially compared to the higher order theory disclaiming any correction. The highest accuracy of overall solution is compared to the 3D elasticity equilibrium one.

Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

2016-04-01

In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

Numerical modelling of closed-cell aluminium foam under dynamic loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazell, Paul; Kader, M. A.; Islam, M. A.; Escobedo, J. P.; Saadatfar, M.

2015-06-01

Closed-cell aluminium foams are extensively used in aerospace and automobile industries. The understanding of their behaviour under impact loading conditions is extremely important since impact problems are directly related to design of these engineering structures. This research investigates the response of a closed-cell aluminium foam (CYMAT) subjected to dynamic loading using the finite element software ABAQUS/explicit. The aim of this research is to numerically investigate the material and structural properties of closed-cell aluminium foam under impact loading conditions with interest in shock propagation and its effects on cell wall deformation. A μ-CT based 3D foam geometry is developed to simulate the local cell collapse behaviours. A number of numerical techniques are applied for modelling the crush behaviour of aluminium foam to obtain the more accurate results. The simulation results are compared with experimental data. Comparison of the results shows a good correlation between the experimental results and numerical predictions.

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf.

PubMed

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-07-28

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

Electromagneto squeezing rotational flow of Carbon (C)-Water (H2O) kerosene oil nanofluid past a Riga plate: A numerical study.

PubMed

Hayat, Tasawar; Khan, Mumtaz; Khan, Muhammad Ijaz; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ayub, Muhammad

2017-01-01

This article predicts the electromagneto squeezing rotational flow of carbon-water nanofluid between two stretchable Riga plates. Riga plate is known as electromagnetic actuator which is the combination of permanent magnets and a span wise aligned array of alternating electrodes mounted on a plane surface. Mathematical model is developed for the flow problem with the phenomena of melting heat transfer, viscous dissipation and heat generation/absorption. Water and kerosene oil are utilized as the base fluids whereas single and multi-wall carbon nanotubes as the nanomaterials. Numerical solutions of the dimensionless problems are constructed by using built in shooting method. The correlation expressions for Nusselt number and skin friction coefficient are developed and examined through numerical data. Characteristics of numerous relevant parameters on the dimensionless temperature and velocity are sketched and discussed. Horizontal velocity is found to enhance for higher modified Hartman number.

Electromagneto squeezing rotational flow of Carbon (C)-Water (H2O) kerosene oil nanofluid past a Riga plate: A numerical study

PubMed Central

Hayat, Tasawar; Khan, Mumtaz; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Ayub, Muhammad

2017-01-01

This article predicts the electromagneto squeezing rotational flow of carbon-water nanofluid between two stretchable Riga plates. Riga plate is known as electromagnetic actuator which is the combination of permanent magnets and a span wise aligned array of alternating electrodes mounted on a plane surface. Mathematical model is developed for the flow problem with the phenomena of melting heat transfer, viscous dissipation and heat generation/absorption. Water and kerosene oil are utilized as the base fluids whereas single and multi-wall carbon nanotubes as the nanomaterials. Numerical solutions of the dimensionless problems are constructed by using built in shooting method. The correlation expressions for Nusselt number and skin friction coefficient are developed and examined through numerical data. Characteristics of numerous relevant parameters on the dimensionless temperature and velocity are sketched and discussed. Horizontal velocity is found to enhance for higher modified Hartman number. PMID:28813427

Numerical modelling in biosciences using delay differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocharov, Gennadii A.; Rihan, Fathalla A.

2000-12-01

Our principal purposes here are (i) to consider, from the perspective of applied mathematics, models of phenomena in the biosciences that are based on delay differential equations and for which numerical approaches are a major tool in understanding their dynamics, (ii) to review the application of numerical techniques to investigate these models. We show that there are prima facie reasons for using such models: (i) they have a richer mathematical framework (compared with ordinary differential equations) for the analysis of biosystem dynamics, (ii) they display better consistency with the nature of certain biological processes and predictive results. We analyze both the qualitative and quantitative role that delays play in basic time-lag models proposed in population dynamics, epidemiology, physiology, immunology, neural networks and cell kinetics. We then indicate suitable computational techniques for the numerical treatment of mathematical problems emerging in the biosciences, comparing them with those implemented by the bio-modellers.

Impact of PBL and convection parameterization schemes for prediction of severe land-falling Bay of Bengal cyclones using WRF-ARW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. S.; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.

2017-12-01

This study evaluates the performance of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model for prediction of land-falling Bay of Bengal (BoB) tropical cyclones (TCs). Model integration was performed using two-way interactive double nested domains at 27 and 9 km resolutions. The present study comprises two major components. Firstly, the study explores the impact of five different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and six cumulus convection (CC) schemes on seven land-falling BoB TCs. A total of 85 numerical simulations were studied in detail, and the results signify that the model simulated better both the track and intensity by using a combination of Yonsei University (YSU) PBL and the old simplified Arakawa-Schubert CC scheme. Secondly, the study also investigated the model performance based on the best possible combinations of model physics on the real-time forecasts of four BoB cyclones (Phailin, Helen, Lehar, and Madi) that made landfall during 2013 based on another 15 numerical simulations. The predicted mean track error during 2013 was about 71 km, 114 km, 133 km, 148 km, and 130 km respectively from day-1 to day-5. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s-1 noticed during the entire simulation period. In addition the study also reveals that the predicted track errors during 2013 cyclones improved respectively by 43%, 44%, and 52% from day-1 to day-3 as compared to cyclones simulated during the period 2006-2011. The improvements noticed can be attributed due to relatively better quality data that was specified for the initial mean position error (about 48 km) during 2013. Overall the study signifies that the track and intensity forecast for 2013 cyclones using the specified combinations listed in the first part of this study performed relatively better than the other NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, and thereby finds application in real-time forecast.

Numerical Benchmark of 3D Ground Motion Simulation in the Alpine valley of Grenoble, France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuno, S.; Chaljub, E.; Cornou, C.; Bard, P.

2006-12-01

Thank to the use of sophisticated numerical methods and to the access to increasing computational resources, our predictions of strong ground motion become more and more realistic and need to be carefully compared. We report our effort of benchmarking numerical methods of ground motion simulation in the case of the valley of Grenoble in the French Alps. The Grenoble valley is typical of a moderate seismicity area where strong site effects occur. The benchmark consisted in computing the seismic response of the `Y'-shaped Grenoble valley to (i) two local earthquakes (Ml<=3) for which recordings were avalaible; and (ii) two local hypothetical events (Mw=6) occuring on the so-called Belledonne Border Fault (BBF) [1]. A free-style prediction was also proposed, in which participants were allowed to vary the source and/or the model parameters and were asked to provide the resulting uncertainty in their estimation of ground motion. We received a total of 18 contributions from 14 different groups; 7 of these use 3D methods, among which 3 could handle surface topography, the other half comprises predictions based upon 1D (2 contributions), 2D (4 contributions) and empirical Green's function (EGF) (3 contributions) methods. Maximal frequency analysed ranged between 2.5 Hz for 3D calculations and 40 Hz for EGF predictions. We present a detailed comparison of the different predictions using raw indicators (e.g. peak values of ground velocity and acceleration, Fourier spectra, site over reference spectral ratios, ...) as well as sophisticated misfit criteria based upon previous works [2,3]. We further discuss the variability in estimating the importance of particular effects such as non-linear rheology, or surface topography. References: [1] Thouvenot F. et al., The Belledonne Border Fault: identification of an active seismic strike-slip fault in the western Alps, Geophys. J. Int., 155 (1), p. 174-192, 2003. [2] Anderson J., Quantitative measure of the goodness-of-fit of synthetic seismograms, proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, paper #243, 2004. [3] Kristekova M. et al., Misfit Criteria for Quantitative Comparison of Seismograms, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., in press, 2006.

Use of paired simple and complex models to reduce predictive bias and quantify uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, John; Christensen, Steen

2011-12-01

Modern environmental management and decision-making is based on the use of increasingly complex numerical models. Such models have the advantage of allowing representation of complex processes and heterogeneous system property distributions inasmuch as these are understood at any particular study site. The latter are often represented stochastically, this reflecting knowledge of the character of system heterogeneity at the same time as it reflects a lack of knowledge of its spatial details. Unfortunately, however, complex models are often difficult to calibrate because of their long run times and sometimes questionable numerical stability. Analysis of predictive uncertainty is also a difficult undertaking when using models such as these. Such analysis must reflect a lack of knowledge of spatial hydraulic property details. At the same time, it must be subject to constraints on the spatial variability of these details born of the necessity for model outputs to replicate observations of historical system behavior. In contrast, the rapid run times and general numerical reliability of simple models often promulgates good calibration and ready implementation of sophisticated methods of calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, however, many system and process details on which uncertainty may depend are, by design, omitted from simple models. This can lead to underestimation of the uncertainty associated with many predictions of management interest. The present paper proposes a methodology that attempts to overcome the problems associated with complex models on the one hand and simple models on the other hand, while allowing access to the benefits each of them offers. It provides a theoretical analysis of the simplification process from a subspace point of view, this yielding insights into the costs of model simplification, and into how some of these costs may be reduced. It then describes a methodology for paired model usage through which predictive bias of a simplified model can be detected and corrected, and postcalibration predictive uncertainty can be quantified. The methodology is demonstrated using a synthetic example based on groundwater modeling environments commonly encountered in northern Europe and North America.

Measurement with microscopic MRI and simulation of flow in different aneurysm models.

PubMed

Edelhoff, Daniel; Walczak, Lars; Frank, Frauke; Heil, Marvin; Schmitz, Inge; Weichert, Frank; Suter, Dieter

2015-10-01

The impact and the development of aneurysms depend to a significant degree on the exchange of liquid between the regular vessel and the pathological extension. A better understanding of this process will lead to improved prediction capabilities. The aim of the current study was to investigate fluid-exchange in aneurysm models of different complexities by combining microscopic magnetic resonance measurements with numerical simulations. In order to evaluate the accuracy and applicability of these methods, the fluid-exchange process between the unaltered vessel lumen and the aneurysm phantoms was analyzed quantitatively using high spatial resolution. Magnetic resonance flow imaging was used to visualize fluid-exchange in two different models produced with a 3D printer. One model of an aneurysm was based on histological findings. The flow distribution in the different models was measured on a microscopic scale using time of flight magnetic resonance imaging. The whole experiment was simulated using fast graphics processing unit-based numerical simulations. The obtained simulation results were compared qualitatively and quantitatively with the magnetic resonance imaging measurements, taking into account flow and spin-lattice relaxation. The results of both presented methods compared well for the used aneurysm models and the chosen flow distributions. The results from the fluid-exchange analysis showed comparable characteristics concerning measurement and simulation. Similar symmetry behavior was observed. Based on these results, the amount of fluid-exchange was calculated. Depending on the geometry of the models, 7% to 45% of the liquid was exchanged per second. The result of the numerical simulations coincides well with the experimentally determined velocity field. The rate of fluid-exchange between vessel and aneurysm was well-predicted. Hence, the results obtained by simulation could be validated by the experiment. The observed deviations can be caused by the noise in the measurement and by the limited resolution of the simulation. The resulting differences are small enough to allow reliable predictions of the flow distribution in vessels with stents and for pulsed blood flow.

On the prediction of spray angle of liquid-liquid pintle injectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Peng; Li, Qinglian; Xu, Shun; Kang, Zhongtao

2017-09-01

The pintle injector is famous for its capability of deep throttling and low cost. However, the pintle injector has been seldom investigated. To get a good prediction of the spray angle of liquid-liquid pintle injectors, theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and experiments were conducted. Under the hypothesis of incompressible and inviscid flow, a spray angle formula was deduced from the continuity and momentum equations based on a control volume analysis. The formula was then validated by numerical and experimental data. The results indicates that both geometric and injection parameters affect the total momentum ratio (TMR) and then influence the spray angle formed by liquid-liquid pintle injectors. TMR is the pivotal non-dimensional number that dominates the spray angle. Compared with gas-gas pintle injectors, spray angle formed by liquid-liquid injectors is larger, which benefits from the local high pressure zone near the pintle wall caused by the impingement of radial and axial sheets.

Forecasting sea fog on the coast of southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Huang, B.; Liu, C.; Tu, J.; Wen, G.; Mao, W.

2016-12-01

Forecast sea fog is still full of challenges. We have performed the numerical forecasting of sea fog on the coast of southern China by using the operational meso-scale regional model GRAPES (Global/Regional assimilation and prediction system). The GRAPES model horizontal resolution was 3km and with 66 vertical levels. A total of 72 hours forecasting of sea fog was conducted with hourly outputs over the sea fog event. The results show that the model system can predict reasonable characteristics of typical sea fog events on the coast of southern China. The scope of sea fog coincides with the observations of meteorological stations, the observations of the Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base (MMSEB) at Bohe, Maoming and satellite products of sea fog. The goal of this study is to establish an operational numerical forecasting model system of sea fog on the coast of southern China.

Cohesive Laws and Progressive Damage Analysis of Composite Bonded Joints, a Combined Numerical/Experimental Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girolamo, Donato; Davila, Carlos G.; Leone, Frank A.; Lin, Shih-Yung

2015-01-01

The results of an experimental/numerical campaign aimed to develop progressive damage analysis (PDA) tools for predicting the strength of a composite bonded joint under tensile loads are presented. The PDA is based on continuum damage mechanics (CDM) to account for intralaminar damage, and cohesive laws to account for interlaminar and adhesive damage. The adhesive response is characterized using standard fracture specimens and digital image correlation (DIC). The displacement fields measured by DIC are used to calculate the J-integrals, from which the associated cohesive laws of the structural adhesive can be derived. A finite element model of a sandwich conventional splice joint (CSJ) under tensile loads was developed. The simulations, in agreement with experimental tests, indicate that the model is capable of predicting the interactions of damage modes that lead to the failure of the joint.

Numerical investigation of heat transfer on film-cooled turbine blades.

PubMed

Ginibre, P; Lefebvre, M; Liamis, N

2001-05-01

The accurate heat transfer prediction of film-cooled blades is a key issue for the aerothermal turbine design. For this purpose, advanced numerical methods have been developed at Snecma Moteurs. The goal of this paper is the assessment of a three-dimensional Navier-Stokes solver, based on the ONERA CANARI-COMET code, devoted to the steady aerothermal computations of film-cooled blades. The code uses a multidomain approach to discretize the blade to blade channel with overlapping structured meshes for the injection holes. The turbulence closure is done by means of either Michel mixing length model or Spalart-Allmaras one transport equation model. Computations of thin 3D slices of three film-cooled nozzle guide vane blades with multiple injections are performed. Aerothermal predictions are compared to experiments carried out by the von Karman Institute. The behavior of the turbulence models is discussed, and velocity and temperature injection profiles are investigated.

Inhibition of chaotic escape from a potential well by incommensurate escape-suppressing excitations.

PubMed

Chacón, R; Martínez, J A

2002-03-01

Theoretical results are presented concerning the reduction of chaotic escape from a potential well by means of a harmonic parametric excitation that satisfies an ultrasubharmonic resonance condition with the escape-inducing excitation. The possibility of incommensurate escape-suppressing excitations is demonstrated by studying rational approximations to the irrational escape-suppressing frequency. The analytical predictions for the suitable amplitudes and initial phases of the escape-suppressing excitation are tested against numerical simulations based on a high-resolution grid of initial conditions. These numerical results indicate that the reduction of escape is reliably achieved for small amplitudes and at, and only at, the predicted initial phases. For the case of irrational escape-suppressing frequencies, the effective escape-reducing initial phases are found to lie close to the accumulation points of the set of suitable initial phases that are associated with the complete series of convergents up to the convergent giving the chosen rational approximation.

A 2D Daubechies finite wavelet domain method for transient wave response analysis in shear deformable laminated composite plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastos, C. V.; Theodosiou, T. C.; Rekatsinas, C. S.; Saravanos, D. A.

2018-03-01

An efficient numerical method is developed for the simulation of dynamic response and the prediction of the wave propagation in composite plate structures. The method is termed finite wavelet domain method and takes advantage of the outstanding properties of compactly supported 2D Daubechies wavelet scaling functions for the spatial interpolation of displacements in a finite domain of a plate structure. The development of the 2D wavelet element, based on the first order shear deformation laminated plate theory is described and equivalent stiffness, mass matrices and force vectors are calculated and synthesized in the wavelet domain. The transient response is predicted using the explicit central difference time integration scheme. Numerical results for the simulation of wave propagation in isotropic, quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminated plates are presented and demonstrate the high spatial convergence and problem size reduction obtained by the present method.

Estimating 1 min rain rate distributions from numerical weather prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulson, Kevin S.

2017-01-01

Internationally recognized prognostic models of rain fade on terrestrial and Earth-space EHF links rely fundamentally on distributions of 1 min rain rates. Currently, in Rec. ITU-R P.837-6, these distributions are generated using the Salonen-Poiares Baptista method where 1 min rain rate distributions are estimated from long-term average annual accumulations provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP). This paper investigates an alternative to this method based on the distribution of 6 h accumulations available from the same NWPs. Rain rate fields covering the UK, produced by the Nimrod network of radars, are integrated to estimate the accumulations provided by NWP, and these are linked to distributions of fine-scale rain rates. The proposed method makes better use of the available data. It is verified on 15 NWP regions spanning the UK, and the extension to other regions is discussed.

A neural network based implementation of an MPC algorithm applied in the control systems of electromechanical plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marusak, Piotr M.; Kuntanapreeda, Suwat

2018-01-01

The paper considers application of a neural network based implementation of a model predictive control (MPC) control algorithm to electromechanical plants. Properties of such control plants implicate that a relatively short sampling time should be used. However, in such a case, finding the control value numerically may be too time-consuming. Therefore, the current paper tests the solution based on transforming the MPC optimization problem into a set of differential equations whose solution is the same as that of the original optimization problem. This set of differential equations can be interpreted as a dynamic neural network. In such an approach, the constraints can be introduced into the optimization problem with relative ease. Moreover, the solution of the optimization problem can be obtained faster than when the standard numerical quadratic programming routine is used. However, a very careful tuning of the algorithm is needed to achieve this. A DC motor and an electrohydraulic actuator are taken as illustrative examples. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated through numerical simulations.

Masonry Vaults Subjected To Horizontal Loads: Experimental and Numerical Investigations to Evaluate the Effectiveness of A GFRM Reinforcement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gattesco, Natalino; Boem, Ingrid

2017-10-01

The paper investigates the effectiveness of a modern reinforcement technique based on a Glass Fiber-Reinforced Mortar (GFRM) for the enhancement of the performances of existing masonry vaults subjected to horizontal seismic actions. In fact, the authors recently evidenced, through numerical simulations, that the typical simplified loading patterns generally adopted in the literature for the experimental tests, based on concentrated vertical loads at 1/4 of the span, are not reliable for such a purpose, due to an unrealistic stress distribution. Thus, experimental quasi-static cyclic tests on full-scale masonry vaults based on a specific setup, designed to apply a horizontal load pattern proportional to the mass, were performed. Three samples were tested: an unreinforced vault, a vault reinforced at the extrados and a vault reinforced at the intrados. The experimental results demonstrated the technique effectiveness in both strength and ductility. Moreover, numerical simulations were performed by adopting a simplified FE, smear-crack model, evidencing the good reliability of the prediction by comparison with the experimental results.

On the Characterization of Rainfall Associated with U.S. Landfalling North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Based on Satellite Data and Numerical Weather Prediction Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luitel, B. N.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G. A.

2014-12-01

When we talk about tropical cyclones (TCs), the first things that come to mind are strong winds and storm surge affecting the coastal areas. However, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 59% of the deaths caused by TCs since 1970 is due to fresh water flooding. Heavy rainfall associated with TCs accounts for 13% of heavy rainfall events nationwide for the June-October months, with this percentage being much higher if the focus is on the eastern and southern United States. This study focuses on the evaluation of precipitation associated with the North Atlantic TCs that affected the continental United States over the period 2007 - 2012. We evaluate the rainfall associated with these TCs using four satellite based rainfall products: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA; both real-time and research version); Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) MORPHing technique (CMORPH). As a reference data we use gridded rainfall provided by CPC (Daily US Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Precipitation). Rainfall fields from each of these satellite products are compared to the reference data, providing valuable information about the realism of these products in reproducing the rainfall associated with TCs affecting the continental United States. In addition to the satellite products, we evaluate the forecasted rainfall produced by five state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), UK Met Office (UKMO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC). The skill of these models in reproducing TC rainfall is quantified for different lead times, and discussed in light of the performance of the satellite products.

Improved Formula for the Stress Intensity Factor of Semi-Elliptical Surface Cracks in Welded Joints under Bending Stress

PubMed Central

Peng, Yang; Wu, Chao; Zheng, Yifu; Dong, Jun

2017-01-01

Welded joints are prone to fatigue cracking with the existence of welding defects and bending stress. Fracture mechanics is a useful approach in which the fatigue life of the welded joint can be predicted. The key challenge of such predictions using fracture mechanics is how to accurately calculate the stress intensity factor (SIF). An empirical formula for calculating the SIF of welded joints under bending stress was developed by Baik, Yamada and Ishikawa based on the hybrid method. However, when calculating the SIF of a semi-elliptical crack, this study found that the accuracy of the Baik-Yamada formula was poor when comparing the benchmark results, experimental data and numerical results. The reasons for the reduced accuracy of the Baik-Yamada formula were identified and discussed in this paper. Furthermore, a new correction factor was developed and added to the Baik-Yamada formula by using theoretical analysis and numerical regression. Finally, the predictions using the modified Baik-Yamada formula were compared with the benchmark results, experimental data and numerical results. It was found that the accuracy of the modified Baik-Yamada formula was greatly improved. Therefore, it is proposed that this modified formula is used to conveniently and accurately calculate the SIF of semi-elliptical cracks in welded joints under bending stress. PMID:28772527

Numerical modelling of soot formation and oxidation in laminar coflow non-smoking and smoking ethylene diffusion flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fengshan; Guo, Hongsheng; Smallwood, Gregory J.; Gülder, Ömer L.

2003-06-01

A numerical study of soot formation and oxidation in axisymmetric laminar coflow non-smoking and smoking ethylene diffusion flames was conducted using detailed gas-phase chemistry and complex thermal and transport properties. A modified two-equation soot model was employed to describe soot nucleation, growth and oxidation. Interaction between the gas-phase chemistry and soot chemistry was taken into account. Radiation heat transfer by both soot and radiating gases was calculated using the discrete-ordinates method coupled with a statistical narrow-band correlated-k based band model, and was used to evaluate the simple optically thin approximation. The governing equations in fully elliptic form were solved. The current models in the literature describing soot oxidation by O2 and OH have to be modified in order to predict the smoking flame. The modified soot oxidation model has only moderate effects on the calculation of the non-smoking flame, but dramatically affects the soot oxidation near the flame tip in the smoking flame. Numerical results of temperature, soot volume fraction and primary soot particle size and number density were compared with experimental data in the literature. Relatively good agreement was found between the prediction and the experimental data. The optically thin approximation radiation model significantly underpredicts temperatures in the upper portion of both flames, seriously affecting the soot prediction.

Prediction of forced convective heat transfer and critical heat flux for subcooled water flowing in miniature tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibahara, Makoto; Fukuda, Katsuya; Liu, Qiusheng; Hata, Koichi

2018-02-01

The heat transfer characteristics of forced convection for subcooled water in small tubes were clarified using the commercial computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code, PHENICS ver. 2013. The analytical model consists of a platinum tube (the heated section) and a stainless tube (the non-heated section). Since the platinum tube was heated by direct current in the authors' previous experiments, a uniform heat flux with the exponential function was given as a boundary condition in the numerical simulation. Two inner diameters of the tubes were considered: 1.0 and 2.0 mm. The upward flow velocities ranged from 2 to 16 m/s and the inlet temperature ranged from 298 to 343 K. The numerical results showed that the difference between the surface temperature and the bulk temperature was in good agreement with the experimental data at each heat flux. The numerical model was extended to the liquid sublayer analysis for the CHF prediction and was evaluated by comparing its results with the experimental data. It was postulated that the CHF occurs when the fluid temperature near the heated wall exceeds the saturated temperature, based on Celata et al.'s superheated layer vapor replenishment (SLVR) model. The suggested prediction method was in good agreement with the experimental data and with other CHF data in literature within ±25%.

Effect of interfacial turbulence and accommodation coefficient on CFD predictions of pressurization and pressure control in cryogenic storage tank

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassemi, Mohammad; Kartuzova, Olga

2016-03-01

Pressurization and pressure control in cryogenic storage tanks are to a large extent affected by heat and mass transport across the liquid-vapor interface. These mechanisms are, in turn, controlled by the kinetics of the phase change process and the dynamics of the turbulent recirculating flows in the liquid and vapor phases. In this paper, the effects of accommodation coefficient and interfacial turbulence on tank pressurization and pressure control simulations are examined. Comparison between numerical predictions and ground-based measurements in two large liquid hydrogen tank experiments, performed in the K-site facility at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Multi-purpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB) facility at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), are used to show the impact of accommodation coefficient and interfacial and vapor phase turbulence on evolution of pressure and temperatures in the cryogenic storage tanks. In particular, the self-pressurization comparisons indicate that: (1) numerical predictions are essentially independent of the magnitude of the accommodation coefficient; and (2) surprisingly, laminar models sometimes provide results that are in better agreement with experimental self-pressurization rates, even in parametric ranges where the bulk flow is deemed fully turbulent. In this light, shortcomings of the present CFD models, especially, numerical treatments of interfacial mass transfer and turbulence, as coupled to the Volume-of-Fluid (VOF) interface capturing scheme, are underscored and discussed.

Development of numerical model for predicting heat generation and temperatures in MSW landfills.

PubMed

Hanson, James L; Yeşiller, Nazli; Onnen, Michael T; Liu, Wei-Lien; Oettle, Nicolas K; Marinos, Janelle A

2013-10-01

A numerical modeling approach has been developed for predicting temperatures in municipal solid waste landfills. Model formulation and details of boundary conditions are described. Model performance was evaluated using field data from a landfill in Michigan, USA. The numerical approach was based on finite element analysis incorporating transient conductive heat transfer. Heat generation functions representing decomposition of wastes were empirically developed and incorporated to the formulation. Thermal properties of materials were determined using experimental testing, field observations, and data reported in literature. The boundary conditions consisted of seasonal temperature cycles at the ground surface and constant temperatures at the far-field boundary. Heat generation functions were developed sequentially using varying degrees of conceptual complexity in modeling. First a step-function was developed to represent initial (aerobic) and residual (anaerobic) conditions. Second, an exponential growth-decay function was established. Third, the function was scaled for temperature dependency. Finally, an energy-expended function was developed to simulate heat generation with waste age as a function of temperature. Results are presented and compared to field data for the temperature-dependent growth-decay functions. The formulations developed can be used for prediction of temperatures within various components of landfill systems (liner, waste mass, cover, and surrounding subgrade), determination of frost depths, and determination of heat gain due to decomposition of wastes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Connecting Numerical Relativity and Data Analysis of Gravitational Wave Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoemaker, Deirdre; Jani, Karan; London, Lionel; Pekowsky, Larne

Gravitational waves deliver information in exquisite detail about astrophysical phenomena, among them the collision of two black holes, a system completely invisible to the eyes of electromagnetic telescopes. Models that predict gravitational wave signals from likely sources are crucial for the success of this endeavor. Modeling binary black hole sources of gravitational radiation requires solving the Einstein equations of General Relativity using powerful computer hardware and sophisticated numerical algorithms. This proceeding presents where we are in understanding ground-based gravitational waves resulting from the merger of black holes and the implications of these sources for the advent of gravitational-wave astronomy.

Light-cone velocities after a global quench in a noninteracting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, K.; Rajabpour, M. A.; Viti, J.

2018-05-01

We study the light-cone velocity for global quenches in the noninteracting XY chain starting from a class of initial states that are eigenstates of the local z component of the spin. We point out how translation invariance of the initial state can affect the maximal speed at which correlations spread. As a consequence the light-cone velocity can be state dependent also for noninteracting systems: a new effect of which we provide clear numerical evidence and analytic predictions. Analogous considerations, based on numerical results, are drawn for the evolution of the entanglement entropy.

Finite Element Modelling and Analysis of Conventional Pultrusion Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akishin, P.; Barkanov, E.; Bondarchuk, A.

2015-11-01

Pultrusion is one of many composite manufacturing techniques and one of the most efficient methods for producing fiber reinforced polymer composite parts with a constant cross-section. Numerical simulation is helpful for understanding the manufacturing process and developing scientific means for the pultrusion tooling design. Numerical technique based on the finite element method has been developed for the simulation of pultrusion processes. It uses the general purpose finite element software ANSYS Mechanical. It is shown that the developed technique predicts the temperature and cure profiles, which are in good agreement with those published in the open literature.

Thermodynamics of rough colloidal surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Raymond E.; Halsey, Thomas C.; Leibig, Michael

1991-03-01

In Debye-Hückel theory, the free energy of an electric double layer near a colloidal (or any other) surface can be related to the statistics of random walks near that surface. We present a numerical method based on this correspondence for the calculation of the double-layer free energy for an arbitrary charged or conducting surface. For self-similar surfaces, we propose a scaling law for the behavior of the free energy as a function of the screening length and the surface dimension. This scaling law is verified by numerical computation. Capacitance measurements on rough surfaces of, e.g., colloids can test these predictions.

Improved numerical methods for turbulent viscous flows aerothermal modeling program, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karki, K. C.; Patankar, S. V.; Runchal, A. K.; Mongia, H. C.

1988-01-01

The details of a study to develop accurate and efficient numerical schemes to predict complex flows are described. In this program, several discretization schemes were evaluated using simple test cases. This assessment led to the selection of three schemes for an in-depth evaluation based on two-dimensional flows. The scheme with the superior overall performance was incorporated in a computer program for three-dimensional flows. To improve the computational efficiency, the selected discretization scheme was combined with a direct solution approach in which the fluid flow equations are solved simultaneously rather than sequentially.

A numerical simulation of the flow in the diffuser of the NASA Lewis icing research tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Keith, Theo G., Jr.

1990-01-01

The flow in the diffuser section of the Icing Research Tunnel at the NASA Lewis Research Center is numerically investigated. To accomplish this, an existing computer code is utilized. The code, known as PARC3D, is based on the Beam-Warming algorithm applied to the strong conservation law form of the complete Navier-Stokes equations. The first portion of the paper consists of a brief description of the diffuser and its current flow characteristics. A brief discussion of the code work follows. Predicted velocity patterns are then compared with the measured values.

Nonlinear dynamics under varying temperature conditions of the resonating beams of a differential resonant accelerometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jing; Wang, Yagang; Zega, Valentina; Su, Yan; Corigliano, Alberto

2018-07-01

In this work the nonlinear dynamic behaviour under varying temperature conditions of the resonating beams of a differential resonant accelerometer is studied from the theoretical, numerical and experimental points of view. A complete analytical model based on the Hamilton’s principle is proposed to describe the nonlinear behaviour of the resonators under varying temperature conditions and numerical solutions are presented in comparison with experimental data. This provides a novel perspective to examine the relationship between temperature and nonlinearity, which helps predicting the dynamic behaviour of resonant devices and can guide their optimal design.

Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jie; Draxl, Caroline; Hopson, Thomas

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been widely used for wind resource assessment. Model runs with higher spatial resolution are generally more accurate, yet extremely computational expensive. An alternative approach is to use data generated by a low resolution NWP model, in conjunction with statistical methods. In order to analyze the accuracy and computational efficiency of different types of NWP-based wind resource assessment methods, this paper performs a comparison of three deterministic and probabilistic NWP-based wind resource assessment methodologies: (i) a coarse resolution (0.5 degrees x 0.67 degrees) global reanalysis data set, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applicationsmore » (MERRA); (ii) an analog ensemble methodology based on the MERRA, which provides both deterministic and probabilistic predictions; and (iii) a fine resolution (2-km) NWP data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Results show that: (i) as expected, the analog ensemble and WIND Toolkit perform significantly better than MERRA confirming their ability to downscale coarse estimates; (ii) the analog ensemble provides the best estimate of the multi-year wind distribution at seven of the nine sites, while the WIND Toolkit is the best at one site; (iii) the WIND Toolkit is more accurate in estimating the distribution of hourly wind speed differences, which characterizes the wind variability, at five of the available sites, with the analog ensemble being best at the remaining four locations; and (iv) the analog ensemble computational cost is negligible, whereas the WIND Toolkit requires large computational resources. Future efforts could focus on the combination of the analog ensemble with intermediate resolution (e.g., 10-15 km) NWP estimates, to considerably reduce the computational burden, while providing accurate deterministic estimates and reliable probabilistic assessments.« less

Cavitation erosion prediction based on analysis of flow dynamics and impact load spectra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mihatsch, Michael S., E-mail: michael.mihatsch@aer.mw.tum.de; Schmidt, Steffen J.; Adams, Nikolaus A.

2015-10-15

Cavitation erosion is the consequence of repeated collapse-induced high pressure-loads on a material surface. The present paper assesses the prediction of impact load spectra of cavitating flows, i.e., the rate and intensity distribution of collapse events based on a detailed analysis of flow dynamics. Data are obtained from a numerical simulation which employs a density-based finite volume method, taking into account the compressibility of both phases, and resolves collapse-induced pressure waves. To determine the spectrum of collapse events in the fluid domain, we detect and quantify the collapse of isolated vapor structures. As reference configuration we consider the expansion ofmore » a liquid into a radially divergent gap which exhibits unsteady sheet and cloud cavitation. Analysis of simulation data shows that global cavitation dynamics and dominant flow events are well resolved, even though the spatial resolution is too coarse to resolve individual vapor bubbles. The inviscid flow model recovers increasingly fine-scale vapor structures and collapses with increasing resolution. We demonstrate that frequency and intensity of these collapse events scale with grid resolution. Scaling laws based on two reference lengths are introduced for this purpose. We show that upon applying these laws impact load spectra recorded on experimental and numerical pressure sensors agree with each other. Furthermore, correlation between experimental pitting rates and collapse-event rates is found. Locations of high maximum wall pressures and high densities of collapse events near walls obtained numerically agree well with areas of erosion damage in the experiment. The investigation shows that impact load spectra of cavitating flows can be inferred from flow data that captures the main vapor structures and wave dynamics without the need for resolving all flow scales.« less

Validation of Groundwater Models: Meaningful or Meaningless?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konikow, L. F.

2003-12-01

Although numerical simulation models are valuable tools for analyzing groundwater systems, their predictive accuracy is limited. People who apply groundwater flow or solute-transport models, as well as those who make decisions based on model results, naturally want assurance that a model is "valid." To many people, model validation implies some authentication of the truth or accuracy of the model. History matching is often presented as the basis for model validation. Although such model calibration is a necessary modeling step, it is simply insufficient for model validation. Because of parameter uncertainty and solution non-uniqueness, declarations of validation (or verification) of a model are not meaningful. Post-audits represent a useful means to assess the predictive accuracy of a site-specific model, but they require the existence of long-term monitoring data. Model testing may yield invalidation, but that is an opportunity to learn and to improve the conceptual and numerical models. Examples of post-audits and of the application of a solute-transport model to a radioactive waste disposal site illustrate deficiencies in model calibration, prediction, and validation.

Evaluation of CFD to Determine Two-Dimensional Airfoil Characteristics for Rotorcraft Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Marilyn J.; Wong, Tin-Chee; Potsdam, Mark; Baeder, James; Phanse, Sujeet

2004-01-01

The efficient prediction of helicopter rotor performance, vibratory loads, and aeroelastic properties still relies heavily on the use of comprehensive analysis codes by the rotorcraft industry. These comprehensive codes utilize look-up tables to provide two-dimensional aerodynamic characteristics. Typically these tables are comprised of a combination of wind tunnel data, empirical data and numerical analyses. The potential to rely more heavily on numerical computations based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations has become more of a reality with the advent of faster computers and more sophisticated physical models. The ability of five different CFD codes applied independently to predict the lift, drag and pitching moments of rotor airfoils is examined for the SC1095 airfoil, which is utilized in the UH-60A main rotor. Extensive comparisons with the results of ten wind tunnel tests are performed. These CFD computations are found to be as good as experimental data in predicting many of the aerodynamic performance characteristics. Four turbulence models were examined (Baldwin-Lomax, Spalart-Allmaras, Menter SST, and k-omega).

High-Resolution Simulations of Gas-Solids Jet Penetration Into a High Density Riser Flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tingwen

2011-05-01

High-resolution simulations of a gas-solids jet in a 0.3 m diameter and 15.9 m tall circulating fluidized bed (CFB) riser were conducted with the open source software-MFIX. In the numerical simulations, both gas and solids injected through a 1.6 cm diameter radial-directed tube 4.3 m above the bottom distributor were tracked as tracers, which enable the analysis of the characteristics of a two-phase jet. Two jetting gas velocities of 16.6 and 37.2 m/s were studied with the other operating conditions fixed. Reasonable flow hydrodynamics with respect to overall pressure drop, voidage, and solids velocity distributions were predicted. Due to themore » different dynamic responses of gas and particles to the crossflow, a significant separation of gas and solids within the jet region was predicted for both cases. In addition, the jet characteristics based on tracer concentration and tracer mass fraction profiles at different downstream levels are discussed. Overall, the numerical predictions compare favorably to the experimental measurements made at NETL.« less

Thermoviscoelastic characterization and prediction of Kevlar/epoxy composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gramoll, K. C.; Dillard, D. A.; Brinson, H. F.

1990-01-01

The thermoviscoelastic characterization of Kevlar 49/Fiberite 7714A epoxy composite lamina and the development of a numerical procedure to predict the viscoelastic response of any general laminate constructed from the same material were studied. The four orthotropic material properties, S sub 11, S sub 12, S sub 22, and S sub 66, were characterized by 20 minute static creep tests on unidirectional (0) sub 8, (10) sub 8, and (90) sub 16 lamina specimens. The Time-Temperature Superposition-Principle (TTSP) was used successfully to accelerate the characterization process. A nonlinear constitutive model was developed to describe the stress dependent viscoelastic response for each of the material properties. A numerical procedure to predict long term laminate properties from lamina properties (obtained experimentally) was developed. Numerical instabilities and time constraints associated with viscoelastic numerical techniques were discussed and solved. The numerical procedure was incorporated into a user friendly microcomputer program called Viscoelastic Composite Analysis Program (VCAP), which is available for IBM PC type computers. The program was designed for ease of use. The final phase involved testing actual laminates constructed from the characterized material, Kevlar/epoxy, at various temperatures and load level for 4 to 5 weeks. These results were compared with the VCAP program predictions to verify the testing procedure and to check the numerical procedure used in the program. The actual tests and predictions agreed for all test cases which included 1, 2, 3, and 4 fiber direction laminates.

Numerical and experimental study of expiratory flow in the case of major upper airway obstructions with fluid structure interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chouly, F.; van Hirtum, A.; Lagrée, P.-Y.; Pelorson, X.; Payan, Y.

2008-02-01

This study deals with the numerical prediction and experimental description of the flow-induced deformation in a rapidly convergent divergent geometry which stands for a simplified tongue, in interaction with an expiratory airflow. An original in vitro experimental model is proposed, which allows measurement of the deformation of the artificial tongue, in condition of major initial airway obstruction. The experimental model accounts for asymmetries in geometry and tissue properties which are two major physiological upper airway characteristics. The numerical method for prediction of the fluid structure interaction is described. The theory of linear elasticity in small deformations has been chosen to compute the mechanical behaviour of the tongue. The main features of the flow are taken into account using a boundary layer theory. The overall numerical method entails finite element solving of the solid problem and finite differences solving of the fluid problem. First, the numerical method predicts the deformation of the tongue with an overall error of the order of 20%, which can be seen as a preliminary successful validation of the theory and simulations. Moreover, expiratory flow limitation is predicted in this configuration. As a result, both the physical and numerical models could be useful to understand this phenomenon reported in heavy snorers and apneic patients during sleep.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Simonetto, Andrea

This paper focuses on the design of online algorithms based on prediction-correction steps to track the optimal solution of a time-varying constrained problem. Existing prediction-correction methods have been shown to work well for unconstrained convex problems and for settings where obtaining the inverse of the Hessian of the cost function can be computationally affordable. The prediction-correction algorithm proposed in this paper addresses the limitations of existing methods by tackling constrained problems and by designing a first-order prediction step that relies on the Hessian of the cost function (and do not require the computation of its inverse). Analytical results are establishedmore » to quantify the tracking error. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and showcase performance and benefits of the algorithms.« less

Investigation of micromixing by acoustically oscillated sharp-edges

PubMed Central

Nama, Nitesh; Huang, Po-Hsun; Huang, Tony Jun; Costanzo, Francesco

2016-01-01

Recently, acoustically oscillated sharp-edges have been utilized to achieve rapid and homogeneous mixing in microchannels. Here, we present a numerical model to investigate acoustic mixing inside a sharp-edge-based micromixer in the presence of a background flow. We extend our previously reported numerical model to include the mixing phenomena by using perturbation analysis and the Generalized Lagrangian Mean (GLM) theory in conjunction with the convection-diffusion equation. We divide the flow variables into zeroth-order, first-order, and second-order variables. This results in three sets of equations representing the background flow, acoustic response, and the time-averaged streaming flow, respectively. These equations are then solved successively to obtain the mean Lagrangian velocity which is combined with the convection-diffusion equation to predict the concentration profile. We validate our numerical model via a comparison of the numerical results with the experimentally obtained values of the mixing index for different flow rates. Further, we employ our model to study the effect of the applied input power and the background flow on the mixing performance of the sharp-edge-based micromixer. We also suggest potential design changes to the previously reported sharp-edge-based micromixer to improve its performance. Finally, we investigate the generation of a tunable concentration gradient by a linear arrangement of the sharp-edge structures inside the microchannel. PMID:27158292

Microstructure based procedure for process parameter control in rolling of aluminum thin foils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johannes, Kronsteiner; Kabliman, Evgeniya; Klimek, Philipp-Christoph

2018-05-01

In present work, a microstructure based procedure is used for a numerical prediction of strength properties for Al-Mg-Sc thin foils during a hot rolling process. For this purpose, the following techniques were developed and implemented. At first, a toolkit for a numerical analysis of experimental stress-strain curves obtained during a hot compression testing by a deformation dilatometer was developed. The implemented techniques allow for the correction of a temperature increase in samples due to adiabatic heating and for the determination of a yield strength needed for the separation of the elastic and plastic deformation regimes during numerical simulation of multi-pass hot rolling. At the next step, an asymmetric Hot Rolling Simulator (adjustable table inlet/outlet height as well as separate roll infeed) was developed in order to match the exact processing conditions of a semi-industrial rolling procedure. At each element of a finite element mesh the total strength is calculated by in-house Flow Stress Model based on evolution of mean dislocation density. The strength values obtained by numerical modelling were found in a reasonable agreement with results of tensile tests for thin Al-Mg-Sc foils. Thus, the proposed simulation procedure might allow to optimize the processing parameters with respect to the microstructure development.

Investigation of micromixing by acoustically oscillated sharp-edges.

PubMed

Nama, Nitesh; Huang, Po-Hsun; Huang, Tony Jun; Costanzo, Francesco

2016-03-01

Recently, acoustically oscillated sharp-edges have been utilized to achieve rapid and homogeneous mixing in microchannels. Here, we present a numerical model to investigate acoustic mixing inside a sharp-edge-based micromixer in the presence of a background flow. We extend our previously reported numerical model to include the mixing phenomena by using perturbation analysis and the Generalized Lagrangian Mean (GLM) theory in conjunction with the convection-diffusion equation. We divide the flow variables into zeroth-order, first-order, and second-order variables. This results in three sets of equations representing the background flow, acoustic response, and the time-averaged streaming flow, respectively. These equations are then solved successively to obtain the mean Lagrangian velocity which is combined with the convection-diffusion equation to predict the concentration profile. We validate our numerical model via a comparison of the numerical results with the experimentally obtained values of the mixing index for different flow rates. Further, we employ our model to study the effect of the applied input power and the background flow on the mixing performance of the sharp-edge-based micromixer. We also suggest potential design changes to the previously reported sharp-edge-based micromixer to improve its performance. Finally, we investigate the generation of a tunable concentration gradient by a linear arrangement of the sharp-edge structures inside the microchannel.

Weather Forecasting From Woolly Art to Solid Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, P.

THE PREHISTORY OF SCIENTIFIC FORECASTING Vilhelm Bjerknes Lewis Fry Richardson Richardson's Forecast THE BEGINNING OF MODERN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION John von Neumann and the Meteorology Project The ENIAC Integrations The Barotropic Model Primitive Equation Models NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION TODAY ECMWF HIRLAM CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

Space shuttle booster multi-engine base flow analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, H. H.; Gardiner, C. R.; Anderson, W. A.; Navickas, J.

1972-01-01

A comprehensive review of currently available techniques pertinent to several prominent aspects of the base thermal problem of the space shuttle booster is given along with a brief review of experimental results. A tractable engineering analysis, capable of predicting the power-on base pressure, base heating, and other base thermal environmental conditions, such as base gas temperature, is presented and used for an analysis of various space shuttle booster configurations. The analysis consists of a rational combination of theoretical treatments of the prominent flow interaction phenomena in the base region. These theories consider jet mixing, plume flow, axisymmetric flow effects, base injection, recirculating flow dynamics, and various modes of heat transfer. Such effects as initial boundary layer expansion at the nozzle lip, reattachment, recompression, choked vent flow, and nonisoenergetic mixing processes are included in the analysis. A unified method was developed and programmed to numerically obtain compatible solutions for the various flow field components in both flight and ground test conditions. Preliminary prediction for a 12-engine space shuttle booster base thermal environment was obtained for a typical trajectory history. Theoretical predictions were also obtained for some clustered-engine experimental conditions. Results indicate good agreement between the data and theoretical predicitons.

Fatigue crack growth and life prediction under mixed-mode loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajith, S.; Murthy, K. S. R. K.; Robi, P. S.

2018-04-01

Fatigue crack growth life as a function of crack length is essential for the prevention of catastrophic failures from damage tolerance perspective. In damage tolerance design approach, principles of fracture mechanics are usually applied to predict the fatigue life of structural components. Numerical prediction of crack growth versus number of cycles is essential in damage tolerance design. For cracks under mixed mode I/II loading, modified Paris law (d/a d N =C (ΔKe q ) m ) along with different equivalent stress intensity factor (ΔKeq) model is used for fatigue crack growth rate prediction. There are a large number of ΔKeq models available for the mixed mode I/II loading, the selection of proper ΔKeq model has significant impact on fatigue life prediction. In the present investigation, the performance of ΔKeq models in fatigue life prediction is compared with respect to the experimental findings as there are no guidelines/suggestions available on the selection of these models for accurate and/or conservative predictions of fatigue life. Within the limitations of availability of experimental data and currently available numerical simulation techniques, the results of present study attempt to outline models that would provide accurate and conservative life predictions. Such a study aid the numerical analysts or engineers in the proper selection of the model for numerical simulation of the fatigue life. Moreover, the present investigation also suggests a procedure to enhance the accuracy of life prediction using Paris law.

A toxicity cost function approach to optimal CPA equilibration in tissues.

PubMed

Benson, James D; Higgins, Adam Z; Desai, Kunjan; Eroglu, Ali

2018-02-01

There is growing need for cryopreserved tissue samples that can be used in transplantation and regenerative medicine. While a number of specific tissue types have been successfully cryopreserved, this success is not general, and there is not a uniform approach to cryopreservation of arbitrary tissues. Additionally, while there are a number of long-established approaches towards optimizing cryoprotocols in single cell suspensions, and even plated cell monolayers, computational approaches in tissue cryopreservation have classically been limited to explanatory models. Here we develop a numerical approach to adapt cell-based CPA equilibration damage models for use in a classical tissue mass transport model. To implement this with real-world parameters, we measured CPA diffusivity in three human-sourced tissue types, skin, fibroid and myometrium, yielding propylene glycol diffusivities of 0.6 × 10 -6  cm 2 /s, 1.2 × 10 -6  cm 2 /s and 1.3 × 10 -6  cm 2 /s, respectively. Based on these results, we numerically predict and compare optimal multistep equilibration protocols that minimize the cell-based cumulative toxicity cost function and the damage due to excessive osmotic gradients at the tissue boundary. Our numerical results show that there are fundamental differences between protocols designed to minimize total CPA exposure time in tissues and protocols designed to minimize accumulated CPA toxicity, and that "one size fits all" stepwise approaches are predicted to be more toxic and take considerably longer than needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of helicopter rotor noise in hover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusyumov, A. N.; Mikhailov, S. A.; Garipova, L. I.; Batrakov, A. S.; Barakos, G.

2015-05-01

Two mathematical models are used in this work to estimate the acoustics of a hovering main rotor. The first model is based on the Ffowcs Williams-Howkings equations using the formulation of Farassat. An analytical approach is followed for this model, to determine the thickness and load noise contributions of the rotor blade in hover. The second approach allows using URANS and RANS CFD solutions and based on numerical solution of the Ffowcs Williams-Howkings equations. The employed test cases correspond to a model rotor available at the KNRTUKAI aerodynamics laboratory. The laboratory is equipped with a system of acoustic measurements, and comparisons between predictions and measurements are to be attempted as part of this work.

Investigation of the Rock Fragmentation Process by a Single TBM Cutter Using a Voronoi Element-Based Numerical Manifold Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Quansheng; Jiang, Yalong; Wu, Zhijun; Xu, Xiangyu; Liu, Qi

2018-04-01

In this study, a two-dimensional Voronoi element-based numerical manifold method (VE-NMM) is developed to analyze the granite fragmentation process by a single tunnel boring machine (TBM) cutter under different confining stresses. A Voronoi tessellation technique is adopted to generate the polygonal grain assemblage to approximate the microstructure of granite sample from the Gubei colliery of Huainan mining area in China. A modified interface contact model with cohesion and tensile strength is embedded into the numerical manifold method (NMM) to interpret the interactions between the rock grains. Numerical uniaxial compression and Brazilian splitting tests are first conducted to calibrate and validate the VE-NMM models based on the laboratory experiment results using a trial-and-error method. On this basis, numerical simulations of rock fragmentation by a single TBM cutter are conducted. The simulated crack initiation and propagation process as well as the indentation load-penetration depth behaviors in the numerical models accurately predict the laboratory indentation test results. The influence of confining stress on rock fragmentation is also investigated. Simulation results show that radial tensile cracks are more likely to be generated under a low confining stress, eventually coalescing into a major fracture along the loading axis. However, with the increase in confining stress, more side cracks initiate and coalesce, resulting in the formation of rock chips at the upper surface of the model. In addition, the peak indentation load also increases with the increasing confining stress, indicating that a higher thrust force is usually needed during the TBM boring process in deep tunnels.

Structural Inelasticity (28th), A Finite Element ’Vectorization’ Method for the Solution of Crack Growth Problems in Two or Three Dimensions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

analitic and numerical paws which have aieared In the literature. A more detail accbunt is contained In the review article by Rice [91. The...where Y is the initial yield stress. Based on the stress change A011O) we predict thA the element o for which...solution predicts an applied load of 0.93, which is 7% greater than the measured value. The plastic zones at different leves of lied load are shown

Neutron residual stress measurement and numerical modeling in a curved thin-walled structure by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing

DOE PAGES

An, Ke; Yuan, Lang; Dial, Laura; ...

2017-09-11

Severe residual stresses in metal parts made by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes (LPBFAM) can cause both distortion and cracking during the fabrication processes. Limited data is currently available for both iterating through process conditions and design, and in particular, for validating numerical models to accelerate process certification. In this work, residual stresses of a curved thin-walled structure, made of Ni-based superalloy Inconel 625™ and fabricated by LPBFAM, were resolved by neutron diffraction without measuring the stress-free lattices along both the build and the transverse directions. The stresses of the entire part during fabrication and after cooling downmore » were predicted by a simplified layer-by-layer finite element based numerical model. The simulated and measured stresses were found in good quantitative agreement. The validated simplified simulation methodology will allow to assess residual stresses in more complex structures and to significantly reduce manufacturing cycle time.« less

Neutron residual stress measurement and numerical modeling in a curved thin-walled structure by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

An, Ke; Yuan, Lang; Dial, Laura

Severe residual stresses in metal parts made by laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes (LPBFAM) can cause both distortion and cracking during the fabrication processes. Limited data is currently available for both iterating through process conditions and design, and in particular, for validating numerical models to accelerate process certification. In this work, residual stresses of a curved thin-walled structure, made of Ni-based superalloy Inconel 625™ and fabricated by LPBFAM, were resolved by neutron diffraction without measuring the stress-free lattices along both the build and the transverse directions. The stresses of the entire part during fabrication and after cooling downmore » were predicted by a simplified layer-by-layer finite element based numerical model. The simulated and measured stresses were found in good quantitative agreement. The validated simplified simulation methodology will allow to assess residual stresses in more complex structures and to significantly reduce manufacturing cycle time.« less

Microfluidic step-emulsification in a cylindrical geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Indrajit; Leshansky, Alexander M.

2016-11-01

The model microfluidic device for high-throughput droplet generation in a confined cylindrical geometry is investigated numerically. The device comprises of core-annular pressure-driven flow of two immiscible viscous liquids through a cylindrical capillary connected co-axially to a tube of a larger diameter through a sudden expansion, mimicking the microfluidic step-emulsifier (1). To study this problem, the numerical simulations of axisymmetric Navier-Stokes equations have been carried out using an interface capturing procedure based on coupled level set and volume-of-fluid (CLSVOF) methods. The accuracy of the numerical method was favorably tested vs. the predictions of the linear stability analysis of core-annular two-phase flow in a cylindrical capillary. Three distinct flow regimes can be identified: the dripping (D) instability near the entrance to the capillary, the step- (S) and the balloon- (B) emulsification at the step-like expansion. Based on the simulation results we present the phase diagram quantifying transitions between various regimes in plane of the capillary number and the flow-rate ratio. MICROFLUSA EU H2020 project.

Numerical analysis of the transportation characteristics of a self-running sliding stage based on near-field acoustic levitation.

PubMed

Feng, Kai; Liu, Yuanyuan; Cheng, Miaomiao

2015-12-01

Owing to its distinct non-contact and oil-free characteristics, a self-running sliding stage based on near-field acoustic levitation can be used in an environment, which demands clean rooms and zero noise. This paper presents a numerical analysis on the lifting and transportation capacity of a non-contact transportation system. Two simplified structure models, namely, free vibration and force vibration models, are proposed for the study of the displacement amplitude distribution of two cases using the finite element method. After coupling the stage displacement into the film thickness, the Reynolds equation is solved by the finite difference method to obtain the lifting and thrusting forces. Parametric analyses of the effects of amplitude, frequency, and standing wave ratio (SWR) on the sliding stage dynamic performance are investigated. Numerical results show good agreement with published experimental values. The predictions also reveal that greater transportation capacity of the self-running sliding stage is generally achieved at less SWR and at higher amplitude.

Validation Database Based Thermal Analysis of an Advanced RPS Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Emis, Nickolas D.

2006-01-01

Advanced RPS concepts can be conceived, designed and assessed using high-end computational analysis tools. These predictions may provide an initial insight into the potential performance of these models, but verification and validation are necessary and required steps to gain confidence in the numerical analysis results. This paper discusses the findings from a numerical validation exercise for a small advanced RPS concept, based on a thermal analysis methodology developed at JPL and on a validation database obtained from experiments performed at Oregon State University. Both the numerical and experimental configurations utilized a single GPHS module enabled design, resembling a Mod-RTG concept. The analysis focused on operating and environmental conditions during the storage phase only. This validation exercise helped to refine key thermal analysis and modeling parameters, such as heat transfer coefficients, and conductivity and radiation heat transfer values. Improved understanding of the Mod-RTG concept through validation of the thermal model allows for future improvements to this power system concept.

An approach for drag correction based on the local heterogeneity for gas-solid flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tingwen; Wang, Limin; Rogers, William

2016-09-22

The drag models typically used for gas-solids interaction are mainly developed based on homogeneous systems of flow passing fixed particle assembly. It has been shown that the heterogeneous structures, i.e., clusters and bubbles in fluidized beds, need to be resolved to account for their effect in the numerical simulations. Since the heterogeneity is essentially captured through the local concentration gradient in the computational cells, this study proposes a simple approach to account for the non-uniformity of solids spatial distribution inside a computational cell and its effect on the interaction between gas and solid phases. Finally, to validate this approach, themore » predicted drag coefficient has been compared to the results from direct numerical simulations. In addition, the need to account for this type of heterogeneity is discussed for a periodic riser flow simulation with highly resolved numerical grids and the impact of the proposed correction for drag is demonstrated.« less

Numerical simulation of high intensity focused ultrasound temperature distribution for transcranial brain therapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qian; Wang, Yizhe; Zhou, Wenzheng; Zhang, Ji; Jian, Xiqi

2017-03-01

To provide a reference for the HIFU clinical therapeutic planning, the temperature distribution and lesion volume are analyzed by the numerical simulation. The adopted numerical simulation is based on a transcranial ultrasound therapy model, including an 8 annular-element curved phased array transducer. The acoustic pressure and temperature elevation are calculated by using the approximation of Westervelt Formula and the Pennes Heat Transfer Equation. In addition, the Time Reversal theory and eliminating hot spot technique are combined to optimize the temperature distribution. With different input powers and exposure times, the lesion volume is evaluated based on temperature threshold theory. The lesion region could be restored at the expected location by the time reversal theory. Although the lesion volume reduces after eliminating the peak temperature in the skull and more input power and exposure time is required, the injury of normal tissue around skull could be reduced during the HIFU therapy. The prediction of thermal deposition in the skull and the lesion region could provide a reference for clinical therapeutic dose.

A case study to quantify prediction bounds caused by model-form uncertainty of a portal frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Buren, Kendra L.; Hall, Thomas M.; Gonzales, Lindsey M.; Hemez, François M.; Anton, Steven R.

2015-01-01

Numerical simulations, irrespective of the discipline or application, are often plagued by arbitrary numerical and modeling choices. Arbitrary choices can originate from kinematic assumptions, for example the use of 1D beam, 2D shell, or 3D continuum elements, mesh discretization choices, boundary condition models, and the representation of contact and friction in the simulation. This work takes a step toward understanding the effect of arbitrary choices and model-form assumptions on the accuracy of numerical predictions. The application is the simulation of the first four resonant frequencies of a one-story aluminum portal frame structure under free-free boundary conditions. The main challenge of the portal frame structure resides in modeling the joint connections, for which different modeling assumptions are available. To study this model-form uncertainty, and compare it to other types of uncertainty, two finite element models are developed using solid elements, and with differing representations of the beam-to-column and column-to-base plate connections: (i) contact stiffness coefficients or (ii) tied nodes. Test-analysis correlation is performed to compare the lower and upper bounds of numerical predictions obtained from parametric studies of the joint modeling strategies to the range of experimentally obtained natural frequencies. The approach proposed is, first, to characterize the experimental variability of the joints by varying the bolt torque, method of bolt tightening, and the sequence in which the bolts are tightened. The second step is to convert what is learned from these experimental studies to models that "envelope" the range of observed bolt behavior. We show that this approach, that combines small-scale experiments, sensitivity analysis studies, and bounding-case models, successfully produces lower and upper bounds of resonant frequency predictions that match those measured experimentally on the frame structure. (Approved for unlimited, public release, LA-UR-13-27561).

A review of numerical models to predict the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides.

PubMed

Leelőssy, Ádám; Lagzi, István; Kovács, Attila; Mészáros, Róbert

2018-02-01

The field of atmospheric dispersion modeling has evolved together with nuclear risk assessment and emergency response systems. Atmospheric concentration and deposition of radionuclides originating from an unintended release provide the basis of dose estimations and countermeasure strategies. To predict the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides several numerical models are available coupled with numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. This work provides a review of the main concepts and different approaches of atmospheric dispersion modeling. Key processes of the atmospheric transport of radionuclides are emission, advection, turbulent diffusion, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay and other physical and chemical transformations. A wide range of modeling software are available to simulate these processes with different physical assumptions, numerical approaches and implementation. The most appropriate modeling tool for a specific purpose can be selected based on the spatial scale, the complexity of meteorology, land surface and physical and chemical transformations, also considering the available data and computational resource. For most regulatory and operational applications, offline coupled NWP-dispersion systems are used, either with a local scale Gaussian, or a regional to global scale Eulerian or Lagrangian approach. The dispersion model results show large sensitivity on the accuracy of the coupled NWP model, especially through the description of planetary boundary layer turbulence, deep convection and wet deposition. Improvement of dispersion predictions can be achieved by online coupling of mesoscale meteorology and atmospheric transport models. The 2011 Fukushima event was the first large-scale nuclear accident where real-time prognostic dispersion modeling provided decision support. Dozens of dispersion models with different approaches were used for prognostic and retrospective simulations of the Fukushima release. An unknown release rate proved to be the largest factor of uncertainty, underlining the importance of inverse modeling and data assimilation in future developments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

2015-10-01

Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

2015-12-01

Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be followed in the future.

Low Frequency Predictive Skill Despite Structural Instability and Model Error

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

Majda, based on earlier theoretical work. 1. Dynamic Stochastic Superresolution of sparseley observed turbulent systems M. Branicki (Post doc...of numerical models. Here, we introduce and study a suite of general Dynamic Stochastic Superresolution (DSS) algorithms and show that, by...resolving subgridscale turbulence through Dynamic Stochastic Superresolution utilizing aliased grids is a potential breakthrough for practical online

Dynamic determination of kinetic parameters and computer simulation of growth of Clostridium perfringens in cooked beef

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this research was to develop a new one-step methodology that uses a dynamic approach to directly construct a tertiary model for prediction of the growth of C. perfringens in cooked beef. This methodology was based on numerical analysis and optimization of both primary and secondary...

Prediction of shallow landslide occurrence: Validation of a physically-based approach through a real case study.

PubMed

Schilirò, Luca; Montrasio, Lorella; Scarascia Mugnozza, Gabriele

2016-11-01

In recent years, physically-based numerical models have frequently been used in the framework of early-warning systems devoted to rainfall-induced landslide hazard monitoring and mitigation. For this reason, in this work we describe the potential of SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction), a simplified physically-based model for the analysis of shallow landslide occurrence. In order to test the reliability of this model, a back analysis of recent landslide events occurred in the study area (located SW of Messina, northeastern Sicily, Italy) on October 1st, 2009 was performed. The simulation results have been compared with those obtained for the same event by using TRIGRS, another well-established model for shallow landslide prediction. Afterwards, a simulation over a 2-year span period has been performed for the same area, with the aim of evaluating the performance of SLIP as early warning tool. The results confirm the good predictive capability of the model, both in terms of spatial and temporal prediction of the instability phenomena. For this reason, we recommend an operating procedure for the real-time definition of shallow landslide triggering scenarios at the catchment scale, which is based on the use of SLIP calibrated through a specific multi-methodological approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibration Control in Turbomachinery Using Active Magnetic Journal Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Josiah D.

1996-01-01

The effective use of active magnetic bearings for vibration control in turbomachinery depends on an understanding of the forces available from a magnetic bearing actuator. The purpose of this project was to characterize the forces as functions shaft position. Both numerical and experimental studies were done to determine the characteristics of the forces exerted on a stationary shaft by a magnetic bearing actuator. The numerical studies were based on finite element computations and included both linear and nonlinear magnetization functions. Measurements of the force versus position of a nonrotating shaft were made using two separate measurement rigs, one based on strain gage measurement of forces, the other based on deflections of a calibrated beam. The general trends of the measured principal forces agree with the predictions of the theory while the magnitudes of forces are somewhat smaller than those predicted. Other aspects of theory are not confirmed by the measurements. The measured forces in the normal direction are larger than those predicted by theory when the rotor has a normal eccentricity. Over the ranges of position examined, the data indicate an approximately linear relationship between the normal eccentricity of the shaft and the ratio of normal to principal force. The constant of proportionality seems to be larger at lower currents, but for all cases examined its value is between 0.14 and 0.17. The nonlinear theory predicts the existence of normal forces, but has not predicted such a large constant of proportionality for the ratio. The type of coupling illustrated by these measurements would not tend to cause whirl, because the coupling coefficients have the same sign, unlike the case of a fluid film bearing, where the normal stiffness coefficients often have opposite signs. They might, however, tend to cause other self-excited behavior. This possibility must be considered when designing magnetic bearings for flexible rotor applications, such as gas turbines and other turbomachinery.

Statistical properties of Charney-Hasegawa-Mima zonal flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Johan, E-mail: anderson.johan@gmail.com; Botha, G. J. J.

2015-05-15

A theoretical interpretation of numerically generated probability density functions (PDFs) of intermittent plasma transport events in unforced zonal flows is provided within the Charney-Hasegawa-Mima (CHM) model. The governing equation is solved numerically with various prescribed density gradients that are designed to produce different configurations of parallel and anti-parallel streams. Long-lasting vortices form whose flow is governed by the zonal streams. It is found that the numerically generated PDFs can be matched with analytical predictions of PDFs based on the instanton method by removing the autocorrelations from the time series. In many instances, the statistics generated by the CHM dynamics relaxesmore » to Gaussian distributions for both the electrostatic and vorticity perturbations, whereas in areas with strong nonlinear interactions it is found that the PDFs are exponentially distributed.« less

Computation of rare transitions in the barotropic quasi-geostrophic equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, Jason; Bouchet, Freddy

2015-01-01

We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in regimes where bistability between two coexisting large-scale attractors exist. By means of large deviations and instanton theory with the use of an Onsager-Machlup path integral formalism for the transition probability, we show how one can directly compute the most probable transition path between two coexisting attractors analytically in an equilibrium (Langevin) framework and numerically otherwise. We adapt a class of numerical optimization algorithms known as minimum action methods to simple geophysical turbulent models. We show that by numerically minimizing an appropriate action functional in a large deviation limit, one can predict the most likely transition path for a rare transition between two states. By considering examples where theoretical predictions can be made, we show that the minimum action method successfully predicts the most likely transition path. Finally, we discuss the application and extension of such numerical optimization schemes to the computation of rare transitions observed in direct numerical simulations and experiments and to other, more complex, turbulent systems.

Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-02-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

AEETES - A solar reflux receiver thermal performance numerical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, R.E. Jr.

1994-02-01

Reflux solar receivers for dish-Stirling electric power generation systems are currently being investigated by several companies and laboratories. In support of these efforts, the AEETES thermal performance numerical model has been developed to predict thermal performance of pool-boiler and heat-pipe reflux receivers. The formulation of the AEETES numerical model, which is applicable to axisymmetric geometries with asymmetric incident fluxes, is presented in detail. Thermal efficiency predictions agree to within 4.1% with test data from on-sun tests of a pool-boiler reflux receiver. Predicted absorber and sidewall temperatures agree with thermocouple data to within 3.3 and 7.3%, respectively. The importance of accountingmore » for the asymmetric incident fluxes is demonstrated in comparisons with predictions using azimuthally averaged variables. The predicted receiver heat losses are characterized in terms of convective, solar radiative, and infrared radiative, and conductive heat transfer mechanisms.« less

Short-arc measurement and fitting based on the bidirectional prediction of observed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Zhigen; Xu, Xiaojie; Georgiadis, Anthimos

2016-02-01

To measure a short arc is a notoriously difficult problem. In this study, the bidirectional prediction method based on the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to the observed data distributed along a short arc is proposed to increase the corresponding arc length, and thus improve its fitting accuracy. Firstly, the rationality of regarding observed data as a time series is discussed in accordance with the definition of a time series. Secondly, the RBFNN is constructed to predict the observed data where the interpolation method is used for enlarging the size of training examples in order to improve the learning accuracy of the RBFNN’s parameters. Finally, in the numerical simulation section, we focus on simulating how the size of the training sample and noise level influence the learning error and prediction error of the built RBFNN. Typically, the observed data coming from a 5{}^\\circ short arc are used to evaluate the performance of the Hyper method known as the ‘unbiased fitting method of circle’ with a different noise level before and after prediction. A number of simulation experiments reveal that the fitting stability and accuracy of the Hyper method after prediction are far superior to the ones before prediction.

A Survey of Computational Intelligence Techniques in Protein Function Prediction

PubMed Central

Tiwari, Arvind Kumar; Srivastava, Rajeev

2014-01-01

During the past, there was a massive growth of knowledge of unknown proteins with the advancement of high throughput microarray technologies. Protein function prediction is the most challenging problem in bioinformatics. In the past, the homology based approaches were used to predict the protein function, but they failed when a new protein was different from the previous one. Therefore, to alleviate the problems associated with homology based traditional approaches, numerous computational intelligence techniques have been proposed in the recent past. This paper presents a state-of-the-art comprehensive review of various computational intelligence techniques for protein function predictions using sequence, structure, protein-protein interaction network, and gene expression data used in wide areas of applications such as prediction of DNA and RNA binding sites, subcellular localization, enzyme functions, signal peptides, catalytic residues, nuclear/G-protein coupled receptors, membrane proteins, and pathway analysis from gene expression datasets. This paper also summarizes the result obtained by many researchers to solve these problems by using computational intelligence techniques with appropriate datasets to improve the prediction performance. The summary shows that ensemble classifiers and integration of multiple heterogeneous data are useful for protein function prediction. PMID:25574395

Experimental analysis and modeling of ultrasound assisted freezing of potato spheres.

PubMed

Kiani, Hossein; Zhang, Zhihang; Sun, Da-Wen

2015-09-01

In recent years, innovative methods such as ultrasound assisted freezing have been developed in order to improve the freezing process. During freezing of foods, accurate prediction of the temperature distribution, phase ratios, and process time is very important. In the present study, ultrasound assisted immersion freezing process (in 1:1 ethylene glycol-water solution at 253.15K) of potato spheres (0.02 m diameter) was evaluated using experimental, numerical and analytical approaches. Ultrasound (25 kHz, 890 W m(-2)) was irradiated for different duty cycles (DCs=0-100%). A finite volume based enthalpy method was used in the numerical model, based on which temperature and liquid fraction profiles were simulated by a program developed using OpenFOAM® CFD software. An analytical technique was also employed to calculate freezing times. The results showed that ultrasound irradiation could decrease the characteristic freezing time of potatoes. Since ultrasound irradiation increased the heat transfer coefficient but simultaneously generated heat at the surface of the samples, an optimum DC was needed for the shortest freezing time which occurred in the range of 30-70% DC. DCs higher than 70% increased the freezing time. DCs lower than 30% did not provide significant effects on the freezing time compared to the control sample. The numerical model predicted the characteristic freezing time in accordance with the experimental results. In addition, analytical calculation of characteristic freezing time exhibited qualitative agreement with the experimental results. As the numerical simulations provided profiles of temperature and water fraction within potatoes frozen with or without ultrasound, the models can be used to study and control different operation situations, and to improve the understanding of the freezing process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilization of satellite data and regional scale numerical models in short range weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kreitzberg, C. W.

1985-01-01

Overwhelming evidence was developed in a number of studies of satellite data impact on numerical weather prediction that it is unrealistic to expect satellite temperature soundings to improve detailed regional numerical weather prediction. It is likely that satellite data over the United States would substantially impact mesoscale dynamical predictions if the effort were made to develop a composite moisture analysis system. The horizontal variability of moisture, most clearly depicited in images from satellite water vapor channels, would not be determined from conventional rawinsondes even if that network were increased by a doubling of both the number of sites and the time frequency.

A stochastic ensemble-based model to predict crop water requirements from numerical weather forecasts and VIS-NIR high resolution satellite images in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Falanga Bolognesi, Salvatore; De Michele, Carlo; Medina Gonzalez, Hanoi; Villani, Paolo; D'Urso, Guido; Battista Chirico, Giovanni

2015-04-01

Irrigation agriculture is one the biggest consumer of water in Europe, especially in southern regions, where it accounts for up to 70% of the total water consumption. The EU Common Agricultural Policy, combined with the Water Framework Directive, imposes to farmers and irrigation managers a substantial increase of the efficiency in the use of water in agriculture for the next decade. Ensemble numerical weather predictions can be valuable data for developing operational advisory irrigation services. We propose a stochastic ensemble-based model providing spatial and temporal estimates of crop water requirements, implemented within an advisory service offering detailed maps of irrigation water requirements and crop water consumption estimates, to be used by water irrigation managers and farmers. The stochastic model combines estimates of crop potential evapotranspiration retrieved from ensemble numerical weather forecasts (COSMO-LEPS, 16 members, 7 km resolution) and canopy parameters (LAI, albedo, fractional vegetation cover) derived from high resolution satellite images in the visible and near infrared wavelengths. The service provides users with daily estimates of crop water requirements for lead times up to five days. The temporal evolution of the crop potential evapotranspiration is simulated with autoregressive models. An ensemble Kalman filter is employed for updating model states by assimilating both ground based meteorological variables (where available) and numerical weather forecasts. The model has been applied in Campania region (Southern Italy), where a satellite assisted irrigation advisory service has been operating since 2006. This work presents the results of the system performance for one year of experimental service. The results suggest that the proposed model can be an effective support for a sustainable use and management of irrigation water, under conditions of water scarcity and drought. Since the evapotranspiration term represents a staple component in the water balance of a catchment, as outstanding future development, the model could also offer an advanced support for water resources management decisions at catchment scale.

A numerical model for aggregations formation and magnetic driving of spherical particles based on OpenFOAM®.

PubMed

Karvelas, E G; Lampropoulos, N K; Sarris, I E

2017-04-01

This work presents a numerical model for the formation of particle aggregations under the influence of a permanent constant magnetic field and their driving process under a gradient magnetic field, suitably created by a Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) device. The model is developed in the OpenFOAM platform and it is successfully compared to the existing experimental and numerical results in terms of aggregates size and their motion in water solutions. Furthermore, several series of simulations are performed for two common types of particles of different diameter in order to verify their aggregation and flow behaviour, under various constant and gradient magnetic fields in the usual MRI working range. Moreover, the numerical model is used to measure the mean length of aggregations, the total time needed to form and their mean velocity under different permanent and gradient magnetic fields. The present model is found to predict successfully the size, velocity and distribution of aggregates. In addition, our simulations showed that the mean length of aggregations is proportional to the permanent magnetic field magnitude and particle diameter according to the relation : l¯ a =7.5B 0 d i 3/2 . The mean velocity of the aggregations is proportional to the magnetic gradient, according to : u¯ a =6.63G˜B 0 and seems to reach a steady condition after a certain period of time. The mean time needed for particles to aggregate is proportional to permanent magnetic field magnitude, scaled by the relationship : t¯ a ∝7B 0 . A numerical model to predict the motion of magnetic particles for medical application is developed. This model is found suitable to predict the formation of aggregations and their motion under the influence of permanent and gradient magnetic fields, respectively, that are produced by an MRI device. The magnitude of the external constant magnetic field is the most important parameter for the aggregations formation and their driving. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temperature-dependent poroelastic and viscoelastic effects on microscale-modelling of seismic reflections in heavy oil reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciz, Radim; Saenger, Erik H.; Gurevich, Boris; Shapiro, Serge A.

2009-03-01

We develop a new model for elastic properties of rocks saturated with heavy oil. The heavy oil is represented by a viscoelastic material, which at low frequencies and/or high temperatures behaves as a Newtonian fluid, and at high frequencies and/or low temperatures as a nearly elastic solid. The bulk and shear moduli of a porous rock saturated with such viscoelastic material are then computed using approximate extended Gassmann equations of Ciz and Shapiro by replacing the elastic moduli of the pore filling material with complex and frequency-dependent moduli of the viscoelastic pore fill. We test the proposed model by comparing its predictions with numerical simulations based on a direct finite-difference solution of equations of dynamic viscoelasticity. The simulations are performed for the reflection coefficient from an interface between a homogeneous fluid and a porous medium. The numerical tests are performed both for an idealized porous medium consisting of alternating solid and viscoelastic layers, and for a more realistic 3-D geometry of the pore space. Both sets of numerical tests show a good agreement between the predictions of the proposed viscoelastic workflow and numerical simulations for relatively high viscosities where viscoelastic effects are important. The results confirm that application of extended Gassmann equations in conjunction with the complex and frequency-dependent moduli of viscoelastic pore filling material, such as heavy oil, provides a good approximation for the elastic moduli of rocks saturated with such material. By construction, this approximation is exactly consistent with the classical Gassmann's equation for sufficiently low frequencies or high temperature when heavy oil behaves like a fluid. For higher frequencies and/or lower temperatures, the predictions are in good agreement with the direct numerical solution of equations of dynamic viscoelasticity on the microscale. This demonstrates that the proposed methodology provides realistic estimates of elastic properties of heavy oil rocks.

Novel Approach for Prediction of Localized Necking in Case of Nonlinear Strain Paths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drotleff, K.; Liewald, M.

2017-09-01

Rising customer expectations regarding design complexity and weight reduction of sheet metal components alongside with further reduced time to market implicate increased demand for process validation using numerical forming simulation. Formability prediction though often is still based on the forming limit diagram first presented in the 1960s. Despite many drawbacks in case of nonlinear strain paths and major advances in research in the recent years, the forming limit curve (FLC) is still one of the most commonly used criteria for assessing formability of sheet metal materials. Especially when forming complex part geometries nonlinear strain paths may occur, which cannot be predicted using the conventional FLC-Concept. In this paper a novel approach for calculation of FLCs for nonlinear strain paths is presented. Combining an interesting approach for prediction of FLC using tensile test data and IFU-FLC-Criterion a model for prediction of localized necking for nonlinear strain paths can be derived. Presented model is purely based on experimental tensile test data making it easy to calibrate for any given material. Resulting prediction of localized necking is validated using an experimental deep drawing specimen made of AA6014 material having a sheet thickness of 1.04 mm. The results are compared to IFU-FLC-Criterion based on data of pre-stretched Nakajima specimen.

Simulation-Based Height of Burst Map for Asteroid Airburst Damage Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aftosmis, Michael J.; Mathias, Donovan L.; Tarano, Ana M.

2017-01-01

Entry and breakup models predict that airburst in the Earth's atmosphere is likely for asteroids up to approximately 200 meters in diameter. Objects of this size can deposit over 250 megatons of energy into the atmosphere. Fast-running ground damage prediction codes for such events rely heavily upon methods developed from nuclear weapons research to estimate the damage potential for an airburst at altitude. (Collins, 2005; Mathias, 2017; Hills and Goda, 1993). In particular, these tools rely upon the powerful yield scaling laws developed for point-source blasts that are used in conjunction with a Height of Burst (HOB) map to predict ground damage for an airburst of a specific energy at a given altitude. While this approach works extremely well for yields as large as tens of megatons, it becomes less accurate as yields increase to the hundreds of megatons potentially released by larger airburst events. This study revisits the assumptions underlying this approach and shows how atmospheric buoyancy becomes important as yield increases beyond a few megatons. We then use large-scale three-dimensional simulations to construct numerically generated height of burst maps that are appropriate at the higher energy levels associated with the entry of asteroids with diameters of hundreds of meters. These numerically generated HOB maps can then be incorporated into engineering methods for damage prediction, significantly improving their accuracy for asteroids with diameters greater than 80-100 m.

On the effect of the 3-D regional geology on the seismic design of critical structures: the case of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, F.; Lopez-Caballero, F.; Clouteau, D.; Paolucci, R.

2018-05-01

In this study, numerical investigation is performed on a realistic source-to-site earthquake scenario, with the aim to assess the role of complex 3-D geological structures on the predicted wavefield. With this respect, the paper pointedly targets the seismic response of nuclear power plants in near-field conditions and the verification of some simplified assumptions commonly adopted for earthquake ground motion prediction and site effects analysis. To this purpose, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Japan) is assumed as reference case-study. In 2007, the nuclear site and its surroundings were struck by the Niigata-Ken Chūetsu-Oki seismic sequence, which caused some of the peak ground motion design limits to be largely overpassed. The dense observation network deployed at the site recorded a highly incoherent and impulsive earthquake ground motion. Many studies argued that the intricate syncline-anticline geology lying underneath the nuclear facility was highly responsible of the observed seismic response. Therefore, a physics-based numerical model of the epicentral area is built-up (≈60 km wide) and tested for small aftershocks, so to discount the effect of extended source on the synthetic site-response. The numerical model (based on the Spectral Element Method) reproduces the source-to-site wave propagation by embracing the effects of the surface topography along with the presence of the Japan Sea (i.e. the bathymetry, the coastline and the fluid-solid interaction). Broad-band (0-5 Hz) synthetic waveforms are obtained for two different aftershocks, located at the two opposite sides of the nuclear facility, aiming to assess the influence of the incidence angle the radiated wave field impinges the foldings beneath it. The effect of the folding presence is assessed by comparing it to a subhorizontally layered geology, in terms of numerical outcome, and by highlighting the differences with respect to the observations. The presence of an intricate geology effectively unveils the reason behind the observed ground motion spatial variability within a relatively small area, stressing its crucial role to properly reproduce the modification the wavefield undergoes during its propagation path towards the surface. The accuracy of the numerical exercise is discussed along with its results, to show the high-fidelity of these deterministic earthquake ground motion predictions.

Prediction of halite, gypsum, and anhydrite solubility in natural brines under subsurface conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Shiliang; Morse, John W.

1993-01-01

Prediction of the solubility of the evaporite minerals halite, gypsum, and anhydrite in brines has numerous scientific and practical applications. This paper presents a Pitzer equation-based model for predicting the solubility of these minerals in Na +-K +-H +-Ca 2+-Mg 2+-Cl --OH --SO 42--H 2O solutions of varying composition as a function of temperature and pressure. Model predictions compare well with experimental observations. As an example of the utility of this program, the volume of CaSO 4 precipitated as a brine flows up a pipe from 6000 m depth is predicted. This is done as a function of flow distance for different cooling rates of the brine. Results indicate that if the brine can be cooled to near the geothermal gradient no precipitation will take place.