Using Bayesian neural networks to classify forest scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vehtari, Aki; Heikkonen, Jukka; Lampinen, Jouko; Juujarvi, Jouni

1998-10-01

We present results that compare the performance of Bayesian learning methods for neural networks on the task of classifying forest scenes into trees and background. Classification task is demanding due to the texture richness of the trees, occlusions of the forest scene objects and diverse lighting conditions under operation. This makes it difficult to determine which are optimal image features for the classification. A natural way to proceed is to extract many different types of potentially suitable features, and to evaluate their usefulness in later processing stages. One approach to cope with large number of features is to use Bayesian methods to control the model complexity. Bayesian learning uses a prior on model parameters, combines this with evidence from a training data, and the integrates over the resulting posterior to make predictions. With this method, we can use large networks and many features without fear of overfitting. For this classification task we compare two Bayesian learning methods for multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks: (1) The evidence framework of MacKay uses a Gaussian approximation to the posterior weight distribution and maximizes with respect to hyperparameters. (2) In a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method due to Neal, the posterior distribution of the network parameters is numerically integrated using the MCMC method. As baseline classifiers for comparison we use (3) MLP early stop committee, (4) K-nearest-neighbor and (5) Classification And Regression Tree.

Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

PubMed Central

Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Macdonald, R. Loch; Baker, Andrew; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

2013-01-01

Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients). Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs). Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique) denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication. PMID:23690884

Applications of Bayesian Procrustes shape analysis to ensemble radar reflectivity nowcast verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Neil I.; Micheas, Athanasios C.; Peng, Yuqiang

2016-07-01

This paper introduces the use of Bayesian full Procrustes shape analysis in object-oriented meteorological applications. In particular, the Procrustes methodology is used to generate mean forecast precipitation fields from a set of ensemble forecasts. This approach has advantages over other ensemble averaging techniques in that it can produce a forecast that retains the morphological features of the precipitation structures and present the range of forecast outcomes represented by the ensemble. The production of the ensemble mean avoids the problems of smoothing that result from simple pixel or cell averaging, while producing credible sets that retain information on ensemble spread. Also in this paper, the full Bayesian Procrustes scheme is used as an object verification tool for precipitation forecasts. This is an extension of a previously presented Procrustes shape analysis based verification approach into a full Bayesian format designed to handle the verification of precipitation forecasts that match objects from an ensemble of forecast fields to a single truth image. The methodology is tested on radar reflectivity nowcasts produced in the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information (WDSS-II) by varying parameters in the K-means cluster tracking scheme.

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2006-01-01

Bayesian networks are frequently used in educational assessments primarily for learning about students' knowledge and skills. There is a lack of works on assessing fit of Bayesian networks. This article employs the posterior predictive model checking method, a popular Bayesian model checking tool, to assess fit of simple Bayesian networks. A…

A Bayesian Account of Visual-Vestibular Interactions in the Rod-and-Frame Task.

PubMed

Alberts, Bart B G T; de Brouwer, Anouk J; Selen, Luc P J; Medendorp, W Pieter

2016-01-01

Panoramic visual cues, as generated by the objects in the environment, provide the brain with important information about gravity direction. To derive an optimal, i.e., Bayesian, estimate of gravity direction, the brain must combine panoramic information with gravity information detected by the vestibular system. Here, we examined the individual sensory contributions to this estimate psychometrically. We asked human subjects to judge the orientation (clockwise or counterclockwise relative to gravity) of a briefly flashed luminous rod, presented within an oriented square frame (rod-in-frame). Vestibular contributions were manipulated by tilting the subject's head, whereas visual contributions were manipulated by changing the viewing distance of the rod and frame. Results show a cyclical modulation of the frame-induced bias in perceived verticality across a 90° range of frame orientations. The magnitude of this bias decreased significantly with larger viewing distance, as if visual reliability was reduced. Biases increased significantly when the head was tilted, as if vestibular reliability was reduced. A Bayesian optimal integration model, with distinct vertical and horizontal panoramic weights, a gain factor to allow for visual reliability changes, and ocular counterroll in response to head tilt, provided a good fit to the data. We conclude that subjects flexibly weigh visual panoramic and vestibular information based on their orientation-dependent reliability, resulting in the observed verticality biases and the associated response variabilities.

A Bayesian Account of Visual–Vestibular Interactions in the Rod-and-Frame Task

PubMed Central

de Brouwer, Anouk J.; Medendorp, W. Pieter

2016-01-01

Abstract Panoramic visual cues, as generated by the objects in the environment, provide the brain with important information about gravity direction. To derive an optimal, i.e., Bayesian, estimate of gravity direction, the brain must combine panoramic information with gravity information detected by the vestibular system. Here, we examined the individual sensory contributions to this estimate psychometrically. We asked human subjects to judge the orientation (clockwise or counterclockwise relative to gravity) of a briefly flashed luminous rod, presented within an oriented square frame (rod-in-frame). Vestibular contributions were manipulated by tilting the subject’s head, whereas visual contributions were manipulated by changing the viewing distance of the rod and frame. Results show a cyclical modulation of the frame-induced bias in perceived verticality across a 90° range of frame orientations. The magnitude of this bias decreased significantly with larger viewing distance, as if visual reliability was reduced. Biases increased significantly when the head was tilted, as if vestibular reliability was reduced. A Bayesian optimal integration model, with distinct vertical and horizontal panoramic weights, a gain factor to allow for visual reliability changes, and ocular counterroll in response to head tilt, provided a good fit to the data. We conclude that subjects flexibly weigh visual panoramic and vestibular information based on their orientation-dependent reliability, resulting in the observed verticality biases and the associated response variabilities. PMID:27844055

Sky Mining - Application to Photomorphic Redshift Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nayak, Pragyansmita

The field of astronomy has evolved from the ancient craft of observing the sky. In it's present form, astronomers explore the cosmos not just by observing through the tiny visible window used by our eyes, but also by exploiting the electromagnetic spectrum from radio waves to gamma rays. The domain is undoubtedly at the forefront of data-driven science. The data growth rate is expected to be around 50%--100% per year. This data explosion is attributed largely to the large-scale wide and deep surveys of the different regions of the sky at multiple wavelengths (both ground and space-based surveys). This dissertation describes the application of machine learning methods to the estimation of galaxy redshifts leveraging such a survey data. Galaxy is a large system of stars held together by mutual gravitation and isolated from similar systems by vast regions of space. Our view of the universe is closely tied to our understanding of galaxy formation. Thus, a better understanding of the relative location of the multitudes of galaxies is crucial. The position of each galaxy can be characterized using three coordinates. Right Ascension (ra) and Declination (dec) are the two coordinates that locate the galaxy in two dimensions on the plane of the sky. It is relatively straightforward to measure them. In contrast, fixing the third coordinate that is the galaxy's distance from the observer along the line of sight (redshift 'z') is considerably more challenging. "Spectroscopic redshift" method gives us accurate and precise measurements of z. However, it is extremely time-intensive and unusable for faint objects. Additionally, the rate at which objects are being identified via photometric surveys far exceeds the rate at which the spectroscopic redshift measurements can keep pace in determining their distance. As the surveys go deeper into the sky, the proportion of faint objects being identified also continues to increase. In order to tackle both these drawbacks increasing in severity every day, alternative method "Photometric redshift" has been studied in the past. It uses the brightness of the object viewed through various standard filters, each of which lets through a relatively broad spectrum of colors. However, these methods are bound by the degeneracy problem (objects with different color profiles have the same redshift) which leads to low predictive accuracy. As part of our study, we are looking beyond color attributes to identify other measured attributes as degeneracy resolvers as well as generate estimators that are highly accurate; termed as "Photomorphic redshift" estimators. The present study investigates the photometric information of the objects such as color and magnitude (= observed flux) and morphology attributes such as shape, size, orientation and concentration in the different wavelengths. The specific type of magnitude used in this study are the PSF, Fiber and Petrosian magnitude. The morphology attributes are the ratio of Fiber to Petrosian magnitude, concentration index and Petrosian radius. All these attributes are in the five bands ugriz of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Machine learning techniques based on Naive Bayes (NB), Bayesian Network (BN) and Generalized Linear Model (GLM) are researched to better understand their applicability, advantages and resulting predictive performance in terms of efficiency and accuracy. Note: The SDSS Data Release (DR) 10 data was used in the executed experiments (total of 700,777 galaxies with forty-five attributes associated with each galaxy). The significant findings of the present work are as follows: 1. Magnitude and morphology attributes have been found to be successful degeneracy resolvers. 2. Magnitude and morphology attributes have been found to be better redshift estimators than color attributes alone. 3. Naive Bayes, Bayesian Network and GLM have been found to be viable redshift estimation methods. Attribute selection is an important factor in computational performance. 4. In addition to the redshift estimate, the likelihood distribution of the estimate is even more useful, and my Bayesian Network models provide that information. This is particularly useful in ensemble methods as well as the kernel for mass distribution in the universe. 5. The generated Bayesian Network models can be applied to any of the variables, not just limited to redshift. Example applications include quality analysis and missing value imputation. Different types of Bayesian Network learning algorithms---constraint-based, score-based and hybrid---were investigated in detail.

Predicting ICU mortality: a comparison of stationary and nonstationary temporal models.

PubMed Central

Kayaalp, M.; Cooper, G. F.; Clermont, G.

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the effectiveness of the stationarity assumption in predicting the mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients at the ICU discharge. DESIGN: This is a comparative study. A stationary temporal Bayesian network learned from data was compared to a set of (33) nonstationary temporal Bayesian networks learned from data. A process observed as a sequence of events is stationary if its stochastic properties stay the same when the sequence is shifted in a positive or negative direction by a constant time parameter. The temporal Bayesian networks forecast mortalities of patients, where each patient has one record per day. The predictive performance of the stationary model is compared with nonstationary models using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. RESULTS: The stationary model usually performed best. However, one nonstationary model using large data sets performed significantly better than the stationary model. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that using a combination of stationary and nonstationary models may predict better than using either alone. PMID:11079917

Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Kathleen E.; Adams, Peter N.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Lentz, Erika E.; Brenner, Owen T.

2015-01-01

We refine a preliminary Bayesian Network by 1) increasing model experience through additional observations, 2) including anthropogenic modification history, and 3) replacing parameterized wave impact values with maximum run-up elevation. Further, we develop and train a pair of generalized models with an additional dataset encompassing a different storm event, which expands the observations beyond our hindcast objective. We compare the skill of the generalized models against the Nor'Ida specific model formulation, balancing the reduced skill with an expectation of increased transferability. Results of Nor'Ida hindcasts ranged in skill from 0.37 to 0.51 and accuracy of 65.0 to 81.9%.

An ecosystem service approach to support integrated pond management: a case study using Bayesian belief networks--highlighting opportunities and risks.

PubMed

Landuyt, Dries; Lemmens, Pieter; D'hondt, Rob; Broekx, Steven; Liekens, Inge; De Bie, Tom; Declerck, Steven A J; De Meester, Luc; Goethals, Peter L M

2014-12-01

Freshwater ponds deliver a broad range of ecosystem services (ESS). Taking into account this broad range of services to attain cost-effective ESS delivery is an important challenge facing integrated pond management. To assess the strengths and weaknesses of an ESS approach to support decisions in integrated pond management, we applied it on a small case study in Flanders, Belgium. A Bayesian belief network model was developed to assess ESS delivery under three alternative pond management scenarios: intensive fish farming (IFF), extensive fish farming (EFF) and nature conservation management (NCM). A probabilistic cost-benefit analysis was performed that includes both costs associated with pond management practices and benefits associated with ESS delivery. Whether or not a particular ESS is included in the analysis affects the identification of the most preferable management scenario by the model. Assessing the delivery of a more complete set of ecosystem services tends to shift the results away from intensive management to more biodiversity-oriented management scenarios. The proposed methodology illustrates the potential of Bayesian belief networks. BBNs facilitate knowledge integration and their modular nature encourages future model expansion to more encompassing sets of services. Yet, we also illustrate the key weaknesses of such exercises, being that the choice whether or not to include a particular ecosystem service may determine the suggested optimal management practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting ‘Wrong Blood in Tube’ Errors: Evaluation of a Bayesian Network Approach

PubMed Central

Doctor, Jason N.; Strylewicz, Greg

2010-01-01

Objective In an effort to address the problem of laboratory errors, we develop and evaluate a method to detect mismatched specimens from nationally collected blood laboratory data in two experiments. Methods In Experiment 1 and 2 using blood labs from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and values derived from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) respectively, a proportion of glucose and HbA1c specimens were randomly mismatched. A Bayesian network that encoded probabilistic relationships among analytes was used to predict mismatches. In Experiment 1 the performance of the network was compared against existing error detection software. In Experiment 2 the network was compared against 11 human experts recruited from the American Academy of Clinical Chemists. Results were compared via area under the receiver-operating characteristics curves (AUCs) and with agreement statistics. Results In Experiment 1 the network was most predictive of mismatches that produced clinically significant discrepancies between true and mismatched scores ((AUC of 0.87 (±0.04) for HbA1c and 0.83 (±0.02) for glucose), performed well in identifying errors among those self-reporting diabetes (N = 329) (AUC = 0.79 (± 0.02)) and performed significantly better than the established approach it was tested against (in all cases p < .0.05). In Experiment 2 it performed better (and in no case worse) than 7 of the 11 human experts. Average percent agreement was 0.79. and Kappa (κ) was 0.59, between experts and the Bayesian network. Conclusions Bayesian network can accurately identify mismatched specimens. The algorithm is best at identifying mismatches that result in a clinically significant magnitude of error. PMID:20566275

Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

2016-09-01

In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

Support vector machines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garay, Michael J.; Mazzoni, Dominic; Davies, Roger; Wagstaff, Kiri

2004-01-01

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are a type of supervised learning algorith,, other examples of which are Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Decision Trees, and Naive Bayesian Classifiers. Supervised learning algorithms are used to classify objects labled by a 'supervisor' - typically a human 'expert.'.

Automatic image orientation detection via confidence-based integration of low-level and semantic cues.

PubMed

Luo, Jiebo; Boutell, Matthew

2005-05-01

Automatic image orientation detection for natural images is a useful, yet challenging research topic. Humans use scene context and semantic object recognition to identify the correct image orientation. However, it is difficult for a computer to perform the task in the same way because current object recognition algorithms are extremely limited in their scope and robustness. As a result, existing orientation detection methods were built upon low-level vision features such as spatial distributions of color and texture. Discrepant detection rates have been reported for these methods in the literature. We have developed a probabilistic approach to image orientation detection via confidence-based integration of low-level and semantic cues within a Bayesian framework. Our current accuracy is 90 percent for unconstrained consumer photos, impressive given the findings of a psychophysical study conducted recently. The proposed framework is an attempt to bridge the gap between computer and human vision systems and is applicable to other problems involving semantic scene content understanding.

Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

PubMed

Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

2016-02-01

A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

A novel critical infrastructure resilience assessment approach using dynamic Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Baoping; Xie, Min; Liu, Yonghong; Liu, Yiliu; Ji, Renjie; Feng, Qiang

2017-10-01

The word resilience originally originates from the Latin word "resiliere", which means to "bounce back". The concept has been used in various fields, such as ecology, economics, psychology, and society, with different definitions. In the field of critical infrastructure, although some resilience metrics are proposed, they are totally different from each other, which are determined by the performances of the objects of evaluation. Here we bridge the gap by developing a universal critical infrastructure resilience metric from the perspective of reliability engineering. A dynamic Bayesian networks-based assessment approach is proposed to calculate the resilience value. A series, parallel and voting system is used to demonstrate the application of the developed resilience metric and assessment approach.

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Decentralized cooperative TOA/AOA target tracking for hierarchical wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Chih; Wen, Chih-Yu

2012-11-08

This paper proposes a distributed method for cooperative target tracking in hierarchical wireless sensor networks. The concept of leader-based information processing is conducted to achieve object positioning, considering a cluster-based network topology. Random timers and local information are applied to adaptively select a sub-cluster for the localization task. The proposed energy-efficient tracking algorithm allows each sub-cluster member to locally estimate the target position with a Bayesian filtering framework and a neural networking model, and further performs estimation fusion in the leader node with the covariance intersection algorithm. This paper evaluates the merits and trade-offs of the protocol design towards developing more efficient and practical algorithms for object position estimation.

Architecture for networked electronic patient record systems.

PubMed

Takeda, H; Matsumura, Y; Kuwata, S; Nakano, H; Sakamoto, N; Yamamoto, R

2000-11-01

There have been two major approaches to the development of networked electronic patient record (EPR) architecture. One uses object-oriented methodologies for constructing the model, which include the GEHR project, Synapses, HL7 RIM and so on. The second approach uses document-oriented methodologies, as applied in examples of HL7 PRA. It is practically beneficial to take the advantages of both approaches and to add solution technologies for network security such as PKI. In recognition of the similarity with electronic commerce, a certificate authority as a trusted third party will be organised for establishing networked EPR system. This paper describes a Japanese functional model that has been developed, and proposes a document-object-oriented architecture, which is-compared with other existing models.

The Effect of Happiness and Sadness on Alerting, Orienting, and Executive Attention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finucane, Anne M.; Whiteman, Martha C.; Power, Mick J.

2010-01-01

Objective: According to the attention network approach, attention is best understood in terms of three functionally and neuroanatomically distinct networks--alerting, orienting, and executive attention. An important question is whether the experience of emotion differentially influences the efficiency of these networks. Method: This study examines…

Prediction of adverse outcomes of acute coronary syndrome using intelligent fusion of triage information with HUMINT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullough, Claire L.; Novobilski, Andrew J.; Fesmire, Francis M.

2006-04-01

Faculty from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, Chattanooga Unit, have used data mining techniques and neural networks to examine a set of fourteen features, data items, and HUMINT assessments for 2,148 emergency room patients with symptoms possibly indicative of Acute Coronary Syndrome. Specifically, the authors have generated Bayesian networks describing linkages and causality in the data, and have compared them with neural networks. The data includes objective information routinely collected during triage and the physician's initial case assessment, a HUMINT appraisal. Both the neural network and the Bayesian network were used to fuse the disparate types of information with the goal of forecasting thirty-day adverse patient outcome. This paper presents details of the methods of data fusion including both the data mining techniques and the neural network. Results are compared using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves describing the outcomes of both methods, both using only objective features and including the subjective physician's assessment. While preliminary, the results of this continuing study are significant both from the perspective of potential use of the intelligent fusion of biomedical informatics to aid the physician in prescribing treatment necessary to prevent serious adverse outcome from ACS and as a model of fusion of objective data with subjective HUMINT assessment. Possible future work includes extension of successfully demonstrated intelligent fusion methods to other medical applications, and use of decision level fusion to combine results from data mining and neural net approaches for even more accurate outcome prediction.

A Bayesian Network Approach to Modeling Learning Progressions and Task Performance. CRESST Report 776

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

West, Patti; Rutstein, Daisy Wise; Mislevy, Robert J.; Liu, Junhui; Choi, Younyoung; Levy, Roy; Crawford, Aaron; DiCerbo, Kristen E.; Chappel, Kristina; Behrens, John T.

2010-01-01

A major issue in the study of learning progressions (LPs) is linking student performance on assessment tasks to the progressions. This report describes the challenges faced in making this linkage using Bayesian networks to model LPs in the field of computer networking. The ideas are illustrated with exemplar Bayesian networks built on Cisco…

The improved business valuation model for RFID company based on the community mining method.

PubMed

Li, Shugang; Yu, Zhaoxu

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company's net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies.

The improved business valuation model for RFID company based on the community mining method

PubMed Central

Li, Shugang; Yu, Zhaoxu

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the appetite for the investment and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in RFID companies is growing rapidly. Although the huge number of papers have addressed the topic of business valuation models based on statistical methods or neural network methods, only a few are dedicated to constructing a general framework for business valuation that improves the performance with network graph (NG) and the corresponding community mining (CM) method. In this study, an NG based business valuation model is proposed, where real options approach (ROA) integrating CM method is designed to predict the company’s net profit as well as estimate the company value. Three improvements are made in the proposed valuation model: Firstly, our model figures out the credibility of the node belonging to each community and clusters the network according to the evolutionary Bayesian method. Secondly, the improved bacterial foraging optimization algorithm (IBFOA) is adopted to calculate the optimized Bayesian posterior probability function. Finally, in IBFOA, bi-objective method is used to assess the accuracy of prediction, and these two objectives are combined into one objective function using a new Pareto boundary method. The proposed method returns lower forecasting error than 10 well-known forecasting models on 3 different time interval valuing tasks for the real-life simulation of RFID companies. PMID:28459815

Object-oriented Tools for Distributed Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Richard M.

1993-01-01

Distributed computing systems are proliferating, owing to the availability of powerful, affordable microcomputers and inexpensive communication networks. A critical problem in developing such systems is getting application programs to interact with one another across a computer network. Remote interprogram connectivity is particularly challenging across heterogeneous environments, where applications run on different kinds of computers and operating systems. NetWorks! (trademark) is an innovative software product that provides an object-oriented messaging solution to these problems. This paper describes the design and functionality of NetWorks! and illustrates how it is being used to build complex distributed applications for NASA and in the commercial sector.

Object-oriented analysis and design of an ECG storage and retrieval system integrated with an HIS.

PubMed

Wang, C; Ohe, K; Sakurai, T; Nagase, T; Kaihara, S

1996-03-01

For a hospital information system, object-oriented methodology plays an increasingly important role, especially for the management of digitized data, e.g., the electrocardiogram, electroencephalogram, electromyogram, spirogram, X-ray, CT and histopathological images, which are not yet computerized in most hospitals. As a first step in an object-oriented approach to hospital information management and storing medical data in an object-oriented database, we connected electrocardiographs to a hospital network and established the integration of ECG storage and retrieval systems with a hospital information system. In this paper, the object-oriented analysis and design of the ECG storage and retrieval systems is reported.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Treesearch

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Modeling Diagnostic Assessments with Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almond, Russell G.; DiBello, Louis V.; Moulder, Brad; Zapata-Rivera, Juan-Diego

2007-01-01

This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

PubMed

Du, Yuanwei; Guo, Yubin

2015-01-01

The intrinsic mechanism of multimorbidity is difficult to recognize and prediction and diagnosis are difficult to carry out accordingly. Bayesian networks can help to diagnose multimorbidity in health care, but it is difficult to obtain the conditional probability table (CPT) because of the lack of clinically statistical data. Today, expert knowledge and experience are increasingly used in training Bayesian networks in order to help predict or diagnose diseases, but the CPT in Bayesian networks is usually irrational or ineffective for ignoring realistic constraints especially in multimorbidity. In order to solve these problems, an evidence reasoning (ER) approach is employed to extract and fuse inference data from experts using a belief distribution and recursive ER algorithm, based on which evidence reasoning method for constructing conditional probability tables in Bayesian network of multimorbidity is presented step by step. A multimorbidity numerical example is used to demonstrate the method and prove its feasibility and application. Bayesian network can be determined as long as the inference assessment is inferred by each expert according to his/her knowledge or experience. Our method is more effective than existing methods for extracting expert inference data accurately and is fused effectively for constructing CPTs in a Bayesian network of multimorbidity.

A comprehensive probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, C.; Qin, T. X.; Jiang, B.; Huang, C.

2018-02-01

Oil pipelines network is one of the most important facilities of energy transportation. But oil pipelines network accident may result in serious disasters. Some analysis models for these accidents have been established mainly based on three methods, including event-tree, accident simulation and Bayesian network. Among these methods, Bayesian network is suitable for probabilistic analysis. But not all the important influencing factors are considered and the deployment rule of the factors has not been established. This paper proposed a probabilistic analysis model of oil pipelines network based on Bayesian network. Most of the important influencing factors, including the key environment condition and emergency response are considered in this model. Moreover, the paper also introduces a deployment rule for these factors. The model can be used in probabilistic analysis and sensitive analysis of oil pipelines network accident.

Cellular automata with object-oriented features for parallel molecular network modeling.

PubMed

Zhu, Hao; Wu, Yinghui; Huang, Sui; Sun, Yan; Dhar, Pawan

2005-06-01

Cellular automata are an important modeling paradigm for studying the dynamics of large, parallel systems composed of multiple, interacting components. However, to model biological systems, cellular automata need to be extended beyond the large-scale parallelism and intensive communication in order to capture two fundamental properties characteristic of complex biological systems: hierarchy and heterogeneity. This paper proposes extensions to a cellular automata language, Cellang, to meet this purpose. The extended language, with object-oriented features, can be used to describe the structure and activity of parallel molecular networks within cells. Capabilities of this new programming language include object structure to define molecular programs within a cell, floating-point data type and mathematical functions to perform quantitative computation, message passing capability to describe molecular interactions, as well as new operators, statements, and built-in functions. We discuss relevant programming issues of these features, including the object-oriented description of molecular interactions with molecule encapsulation, message passing, and the description of heterogeneity and anisotropy at the cell and molecule levels. By enabling the integration of modeling at the molecular level with system behavior at cell, tissue, organ, or even organism levels, the program will help improve our understanding of how complex and dynamic biological activities are generated and controlled by parallel functioning of molecular networks. Index Terms-Cellular automata, modeling, molecular network, object-oriented.

Expectation propagation for large scale Bayesian inference of non-linear molecular networks from perturbation data.

PubMed

Narimani, Zahra; Beigy, Hamid; Ahmad, Ashar; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; Fröhlich, Holger

2017-01-01

Inferring the structure of molecular networks from time series protein or gene expression data provides valuable information about the complex biological processes of the cell. Causal network structure inference has been approached using different methods in the past. Most causal network inference techniques, such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks and ordinary differential equations, are limited by their computational complexity and thus make large scale inference infeasible. This is specifically true if a Bayesian framework is applied in order to deal with the unavoidable uncertainty about the correct model. We devise a novel Bayesian network reverse engineering approach using ordinary differential equations with the ability to include non-linearity. Besides modeling arbitrary, possibly combinatorial and time dependent perturbations with unknown targets, one of our main contributions is the use of Expectation Propagation, an algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference over large scale network structures in short computation time. We further explore the possibility of integrating prior knowledge into network inference. We evaluate the proposed model on DREAM4 and DREAM8 data and find it competitive against several state-of-the-art existing network inference methods.

Learning oncogenetic networks by reducing to mixed integer linear programming.

PubMed

Shahrabi Farahani, Hossein; Lagergren, Jens

2013-01-01

Cancer can be a result of accumulation of different types of genetic mutations such as copy number aberrations. The data from tumors are cross-sectional and do not contain the temporal order of the genetic events. Finding the order in which the genetic events have occurred and progression pathways are of vital importance in understanding the disease. In order to model cancer progression, we propose Progression Networks, a special case of Bayesian networks, that are tailored to model disease progression. Progression networks have similarities with Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (CBNs) [1],a variation of Bayesian networks also proposed for modeling disease progression. We also describe a learning algorithm for learning Bayesian networks in general and progression networks in particular. We reduce the hard problem of learning the Bayesian and progression networks to Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). MILP is a Non-deterministic Polynomial-time complete (NP-complete) problem for which very good heuristics exists. We tested our algorithm on synthetic and real cytogenetic data from renal cell carcinoma. We also compared our learned progression networks with the networks proposed in earlier publications. The software is available on the website https://bitbucket.org/farahani/diprog.

Advanced obstacle avoidance for a laser based wheelchair using optimised Bayesian neural networks.

PubMed

Trieu, Hoang T; Nguyen, Hung T; Willey, Keith

2008-01-01

In this paper we present an advanced method of obstacle avoidance for a laser based intelligent wheelchair using optimized Bayesian neural networks. Three neural networks are designed for three separate sub-tasks: passing through a door way, corridor and wall following and general obstacle avoidance. The accurate usable accessible space is determined by including the actual wheelchair dimensions in a real-time map used as inputs to each networks. Data acquisitions are performed separately to collect the patterns required for specified sub-tasks. Bayesian frame work is used to determine the optimal neural network structure in each case. Then these networks are trained under the supervision of Bayesian rule. Experiment results showed that compare to the VFH algorithm our neural networks navigated a smoother path following a near optimum trajectory.

Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.

2016-12-01

We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will demonstrate how Bayesian networks are used to extract new insights about coastal morphologic behavior, assess impacts to societal and ecological systems, and communicate probabilistic predictions to decision makers.

Accurate estimation of human body orientation from RGB-D sensors.

PubMed

Liu, Wu; Zhang, Yongdong; Tang, Sheng; Tang, Jinhui; Hong, Richang; Li, Jintao

2013-10-01

Accurate estimation of human body orientation can significantly enhance the analysis of human behavior, which is a fundamental task in the field of computer vision. However, existing orientation estimation methods cannot handle the various body poses and appearances. In this paper, we propose an innovative RGB-D-based orientation estimation method to address these challenges. By utilizing the RGB-D information, which can be real time acquired by RGB-D sensors, our method is robust to cluttered environment, illumination change and partial occlusions. Specifically, efficient static and motion cue extraction methods are proposed based on the RGB-D superpixels to reduce the noise of depth data. Since it is hard to discriminate all the 360 (°) orientation using static cues or motion cues independently, we propose to utilize a dynamic Bayesian network system (DBNS) to effectively employ the complementary nature of both static and motion cues. In order to verify our proposed method, we build a RGB-D-based human body orientation dataset that covers a wide diversity of poses and appearances. Our intensive experimental evaluations on this dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

Robust Learning of High-dimensional Biological Networks with Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nägele, Andreas; Dejori, Mathäus; Stetter, Martin

Structure learning of Bayesian networks applied to gene expression data has become a potentially useful method to estimate interactions between genes. However, the NP-hardness of Bayesian network structure learning renders the reconstruction of the full genetic network with thousands of genes unfeasible. Consequently, the maximal network size is usually restricted dramatically to a small set of genes (corresponding with variables in the Bayesian network). Although this feature reduction step makes structure learning computationally tractable, on the downside, the learned structure might be adversely affected due to the introduction of missing genes. Additionally, gene expression data are usually very sparse with respect to the number of samples, i.e., the number of genes is much greater than the number of different observations. Given these problems, learning robust network features from microarray data is a challenging task. This chapter presents several approaches tackling the robustness issue in order to obtain a more reliable estimation of learned network features.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Calibrating Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitney, Paul D.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2010-04-08

While human behavior has long been studied, recent and ongoing advances in computational modeling present opportunities for recasting research outcomes in human behavior. In this paper we describe how Bayesian networks can represent outcomes of human behavior research. We demonstrate a Bayesian network that represents political radicalization research – and show a corresponding visual representation of aspects of this research outcome. Since Bayesian networks can be quantitatively compared with external observations, the representation can also be used for empirical assessments of the research which the network summarizes. For a political radicalization model based on published research, we show this empiricalmore » comparison with data taken from the Minorities at Risk Organizational Behaviors database.« less

Object-oriented Approach to High-level Network Monitoring and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukkamala, Ravi

2000-01-01

An absolute prerequisite for the management of large investigating methods to build high-level monitoring computer networks is the ability to measure their systems that are built on top of existing monitoring performance. Unless we monitor a system, we cannot tools. Due to the heterogeneous nature of the hope to manage and control its performance. In this underlying systems at NASA Langley Research Center, paper, we describe a network monitoring system that we use an object-oriented approach for the design, we are currently designing and implementing. Keeping, first, we use UML (Unified Modeling Language) to in mind the complexity of the task and the required model users' requirements. Second, we identify the flexibility for future changes, we use an object-oriented existing capabilities of the underlying monitoring design methodology. The system is built using the system. Third, we try to map the former with the latter. APIs offered by the HP OpenView system.

An Exploratory Study Examining the Feasibility of Using Bayesian Networks to Predict Circuit Analysis Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chung, Gregory K. W. K.; Dionne, Gary B.; Kaiser, William J.

2006-01-01

Our research question was whether we could develop a feasible technique, using Bayesian networks, to diagnose gaps in student knowledge. Thirty-four college-age participants completed tasks designed to measure conceptual knowledge, procedural knowledge, and problem-solving skills related to circuit analysis. A Bayesian network was used to model…

A Comparison of General Diagnostic Models (GDM) and Bayesian Networks Using a Middle School Mathematics Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Haiyan

2013-01-01

General diagnostic models (GDMs) and Bayesian networks are mathematical frameworks that cover a wide variety of psychometric models. Both extend latent class models, and while GDMs also extend item response theory (IRT) models, Bayesian networks can be parameterized using discretized IRT. The purpose of this study is to examine similarities and…

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Adaptive Educational Software by Applying Reinforcement Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bennane, Abdellah

2013-01-01

The introduction of the intelligence in teaching software is the object of this paper. In software elaboration process, one uses some learning techniques in order to adapt the teaching software to characteristics of student. Generally, one uses the artificial intelligence techniques like reinforcement learning, Bayesian network in order to adapt…

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

An integrated GIS-based data model for multimodal urban public transportation analysis and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shaopei; Tan, Jianjun; Ray, C.; Claramunt, C.; Sun, Qinqin

2008-10-01

Diversity is one of the main characteristics of transportation data collected from multiple sources or formats, which can be extremely complex and disparate. Moreover, these multimodal transportation data are usually characterised by spatial and temporal properties. Multimodal transportation network data modelling involves both an engineering and research domain that has attracted the design of a number of spatio-temporal data models in the geographic information system (GIS). However, the application of these specific models to multimodal transportation network is still a challenging task. This research addresses this challenge from both integrated multimodal data organization and object-oriented modelling perspectives, that is, how a complex urban transportation network should be organized, represented and modeled appropriately when considering a multimodal point of view, and using object-oriented modelling method. We proposed an integrated GIS-based data model for multimodal urban transportation network that lays a foundation to enhance the multimodal transportation network analysis and management. This modelling method organizes and integrates multimodal transit network data, and supports multiple representations for spatio-temporal objects and relationship as both visual and graphic views. The data model is expressed by using a spatio-temporal object-oriented modelling method, i.e., the unified modelling language (UML) extended to spatial and temporal plug-in for visual languages (PVLs), which provides an essential support to the spatio-temporal data modelling for transportation GIS.

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE PAGES

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari; ...

2017-09-15

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Order priors for Bayesian network discovery with an application to malware phylogeny

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oyen, Diane; Anderson, Blake; Sentz, Kari

Here, Bayesian networks have been used extensively to model and discover dependency relationships among sets of random variables. We learn Bayesian network structure with a combination of human knowledge about the partial ordering of variables and statistical inference of conditional dependencies from observed data. Our approach leverages complementary information from human knowledge and inference from observed data to produce networks that reflect human beliefs about the system as well as to fit the observed data. Applying prior beliefs about partial orderings of variables is an approach distinctly different from existing methods that incorporate prior beliefs about direct dependencies (or edges)more » in a Bayesian network. We provide an efficient implementation of the partial-order prior in a Bayesian structure discovery learning algorithm, as well as an edge prior, showing that both priors meet the local modularity requirement necessary for an efficient Bayesian discovery algorithm. In benchmark studies, the partial-order prior improves the accuracy of Bayesian network structure learning as well as the edge prior, even though order priors are more general. Our primary motivation is in characterizing the evolution of families of malware to aid cyber security analysts. For the problem of malware phylogeny discovery, we find that our algorithm, compared to existing malware phylogeny algorithms, more accurately discovers true dependencies that are missed by other algorithms.« less

Variable Discretisation for Anomaly Detection using Bayesian Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-01

UNCLASSIFIED DST- Group –TR–3328 1 Introduction Bayesian network implementations usually require each variable to take on a finite number of mutually...UNCLASSIFIED Variable Discretisation for Anomaly Detection using Bayesian Networks Jonathan Legg National Security and ISR Division Defence Science...and Technology Group DST- Group –TR–3328 ABSTRACT Anomaly detection is the process by which low probability events are automatically found against a

Impact assessment of extreme storm events using a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

den Heijer, C.(Kees); Knipping, Dirk T.J.A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; van Thiel de Vries, Jaap S. M.; Baart, Fedor; van Gelder, Pieter H. A. J. M.

2012-01-01

This paper describes an investigation on the usefulness of Bayesian Networks in the safety assessment of dune coasts. A network has been created that predicts the erosion volume based on hydraulic boundary conditions and a number of cross-shore profile indicators. Field measurement data along a large part of the Dutch coast has been used to train the network. Corresponding storm impact on the dunes was calculated with an empirical dune erosion model named duros+. Comparison between the Bayesian Network predictions and the original duros+ results, here considered as observations, results in a skill up to 0.88, provided that the training data covers the range of predictions. Hence, the predictions from a deterministic model (duros+) can be captured in a probabilistic model (Bayesian Network) such that both the process knowledge and uncertainties can be included in impact and vulnerability assessments.

Prediction in Health Domain Using Bayesian Networks Optimization Based on Induction Learning Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felgaer, Pablo; Britos, Paola; García-Martínez, Ramón

A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph in which each node represents a variable and each arc a probabilistic dependency; they are used to provide: a compact form to represent the knowledge and flexible methods of reasoning. Obtaining it from data is a learning process that is divided in two steps: structural learning and parametric learning. In this paper we define an automatic learning method that optimizes the Bayesian networks applied to classification, using a hybrid method of learning that combines the advantages of the induction techniques of the decision trees (TDIDT-C4.5) with those of the Bayesian networks. The resulting method is applied to prediction in health domain.

A decision aid for intensity-modulated radiation-therapy plan selection in prostate cancer based on a prognostic Bayesian network and a Markov model.

PubMed

Smith, Wade P; Doctor, Jason; Meyer, Jürgen; Kalet, Ira J; Phillips, Mark H

2009-06-01

The prognosis of cancer patients treated with intensity-modulated radiation-therapy (IMRT) is inherently uncertain, depends on many decision variables, and requires that a physician balance competing objectives: maximum tumor control with minimal treatment complications. In order to better deal with the complex and multiple objective nature of the problem we have combined a prognostic probabilistic model with multi-attribute decision theory which incorporates patient preferences for outcomes. The response to IMRT for prostate cancer was modeled. A Bayesian network was used for prognosis for each treatment plan. Prognoses included predicting local tumor control, regional spread, distant metastases, and normal tissue complications resulting from treatment. A Markov model was constructed and used to calculate a quality-adjusted life-expectancy which aids in the multi-attribute decision process. Our method makes explicit the tradeoffs patients face between quality and quantity of life. This approach has advantages over current approaches because with our approach risks of health outcomes and patient preferences determine treatment decisions.

Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

2013-03-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

Diagnosis and Reconfiguration using Bayesian Networks: An Electrical Power System Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knox, W. Bradley; Mengshoel, Ole

2009-01-01

Automated diagnosis and reconfiguration are important computational techniques that aim to minimize human intervention in autonomous systems. In this paper, we develop novel techniques and models in the context of diagnosis and reconfiguration reasoning using causal Bayesian networks (BNs). We take as starting point a successful diagnostic approach, using a static BN developed for a real-world electrical power system. We discuss in this paper the extension of this diagnostic approach along two dimensions, namely: (i) from a static BN to a dynamic BN; and (ii) from a diagnostic task to a reconfiguration task. More specifically, we discuss the auto-generation of a dynamic Bayesian network from a static Bayesian network. In addition, we discuss subtle, but important, differences between Bayesian networks when used for diagnosis versus reconfiguration. We discuss a novel reconfiguration agent, which models a system causally, including effects of actions through time, using a dynamic Bayesian network. Though the techniques we discuss are general, we demonstrate them in the context of electrical power systems (EPSs) for aircraft and spacecraft. EPSs are vital subsystems on-board aircraft and spacecraft, and many incidents and accidents of these vehicles have been attributed to EPS failures. We discuss a case study that provides initial but promising results for our approach in the setting of electrical power systems.

Bayesian modeling of cue interaction: bistability in stereoscopic slant perception.

PubMed

van Ee, Raymond; Adams, Wendy J; Mamassian, Pascal

2003-07-01

Our two eyes receive different views of a visual scene, and the resulting binocular disparities enable us to reconstruct its three-dimensional layout. However, the visual environment is also rich in monocular depth cues. We examined the resulting percept when observers view a scene in which there are large conflicts between the surface slant signaled by binocular disparities and the slant signaled by monocular perspective. For a range of disparity-perspective cue conflicts, many observers experience bistability: They are able to perceive two distinct slants and to flip between the two percepts in a controlled way. We present a Bayesian model that describes the quantitative aspects of perceived slant on the basis of the likelihoods of both perspective and disparity slant information combined with prior assumptions about the shape and orientation of objects in the scene. Our Bayesian approach can be regarded as an overarching framework that allows researchers to study all cue integration aspects-including perceptual decisions--in a unified manner.

Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling of Game Based Diagnostic Assessments. CRESST Report 837

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levy, Roy

2014-01-01

Digital games offer an appealing environment for assessing student proficiencies, including skills and misconceptions in a diagnostic setting. This paper proposes a dynamic Bayesian network modeling approach for observations of student performance from an educational video game. A Bayesian approach to model construction, calibration, and use in…

A Bayesian network analysis of posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in adults reporting childhood sexual abuse

PubMed Central

McNally, Richard J.; Heeren, Alexandre; Robinaugh, Donald J.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The network approach to mental disorders offers a novel framework for conceptualizing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) as a causal system of interacting symptoms. Objective: In this study, we extended this work by estimating the structure of relations among PTSD symptoms in adults reporting personal histories of childhood sexual abuse (CSA; N = 179).   Method: We employed two complementary methods. First, using the graphical LASSO, we computed a sparse, regularized partial correlation network revealing associations (edges) between pairs of PTSD symptoms (nodes). Next, using a Bayesian approach, we computed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to estimate a directed, potentially causal model of the relations among symptoms. Results: For the first network, we found that physiological reactivity to reminders of trauma, dreams about the trauma, and lost of interest in previously enjoyed activities were highly central nodes. However, stability analyses suggest that these findings were unstable across subsets of our sample. The DAG suggests that becoming physiologically reactive and upset in response to reminders of the trauma may be key drivers of other symptoms in adult survivors of CSA. Conclusions: Our study illustrates the strengths and limitations of these network analytic approaches to PTSD. PMID:29038690

Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey.

PubMed

Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind-morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging-, thereby broadening the scope-molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical- of the brain aspects to be studied.

Bayesian networks in neuroscience: a survey

PubMed Central

Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks are a type of probabilistic graphical models lie at the intersection between statistics and machine learning. They have been shown to be powerful tools to encode dependence relationships among the variables of a domain under uncertainty. Thanks to their generality, Bayesian networks can accommodate continuous and discrete variables, as well as temporal processes. In this paper we review Bayesian networks and how they can be learned automatically from data by means of structure learning algorithms. Also, we examine how a user can take advantage of these networks for reasoning by exact or approximate inference algorithms that propagate the given evidence through the graphical structure. Despite their applicability in many fields, they have been little used in neuroscience, where they have focused on specific problems, like functional connectivity analysis from neuroimaging data. Here we survey key research in neuroscience where Bayesian networks have been used with different aims: discover associations between variables, perform probabilistic reasoning over the model, and classify new observations with and without supervision. The networks are learned from data of any kind–morphological, electrophysiological, -omics and neuroimaging–, thereby broadening the scope–molecular, cellular, structural, functional, cognitive and medical– of the brain aspects to be studied. PMID:25360109

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for longitudinal brain morphometry

PubMed Central

Chen, Rong; Resnick, Susan M; Davatzikos, Christos; Herskovits, Edward H

2011-01-01

Identifying interactions among brain regions from structural magnetic-resonance images presents one of the major challenges in computational neuroanatomy. We propose a Bayesian data-mining approach to the detection of longitudinal morphological changes in the human brain. Our method uses a dynamic Bayesian network to represent evolving inter-regional dependencies. The major advantage of dynamic Bayesian network modeling is that it can represent complicated interactions among temporal processes. We validated our approach by analyzing a simulated atrophy study, and found that this approach requires only a small number of samples to detect the ground-truth temporal model. We further applied dynamic Bayesian network modeling to a longitudinal study of normal aging and mild cognitive impairment — the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. We found that interactions among regional volume-change rates for the mild cognitive impairment group are different from those for the normal-aging group. PMID:21963916

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a stochastic generator of synthetic data was developed. Synthetic basin characteristics were randomised, keeping the statistical properties of observed physical and climatic variables in the homogeneous region. The synthetic flood quantiles were stochastically generated taking the regression equation as basis. The learnt Bayesian network was validated by the reliability diagram, the Brier Score and the ROC diagram, which are common measures used in the validation of probabilistic forecasts. Summarising, the flood quantile estimations through Bayesian networks supply information about the prediction uncertainty as a probability distribution function of discharges is given as result. Therefore, the Bayesian network model has application as a decision support for water resources and planning management.

The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.

2016-12-01

Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body. The water quality risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a effective tool for systematically quantifying the random uncertainty in plain river network system, and it also provides the technical support for the decision-making of controlling the sudden water pollution through identification of critical pollution sources.

New Approaches For Asteroid Spin State and Shape Modeling From Delay-Doppler Radar Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raissi, Chedy; Lamee, Mehdi; Mosiane, Olorato; Vassallo, Corinne; Busch, Michael W.; Greenberg, Adam; Benner, Lance A. M.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Duong, Nicholas

2016-10-01

Delay-Doppler radar imaging is a powerful technique to characterize the trajectories, shapes, and spin states of near-Earth asteroids; and has yielded detailed models of dozens of objects. Reconstructing objects' shapes and spins from delay-Doppler data is a computationally intensive inversion problem. Since the 1990s, delay-Doppler data has been analyzed using the SHAPE software. SHAPE performs sequential single-parameter fitting, and requires considerable computer runtime and human intervention (Hudson 1993, Magri et al. 2007). Recently, multiple-parameter fitting algorithms have been shown to more efficiently invert delay-Doppler datasets (Greenberg & Margot 2015) - decreasing runtime while improving accuracy. However, extensive human oversight of the shape modeling process is still required. We have explored two new techniques to better automate delay-Doppler shape modeling: Bayesian optimization and a machine-learning neural network.One of the most time-intensive steps of the shape modeling process is to perform a grid search to constrain the target's spin state. We have implemented a Bayesian optimization routine that uses SHAPE to autonomously search the space of spin-state parameters. To test the efficacy of this technique, we compared it to results with human-guided SHAPE for asteroids 1992 UY4, 2000 RS11, and 2008 EV5. Bayesian optimization yielded similar spin state constraints within a factor of 3 less computer runtime.The shape modeling process could be further accelerated using a deep neural network to replace iterative fitting. We have implemented a neural network with a variational autoencoder (VAE), using a subset of known asteroid shapes and a large set of synthetic radar images as inputs to train the network. Conditioning the VAE in this manner allows the user to give the network a set of radar images and get a 3D shape model as an output. Additional development will be required to train a network to reliably render shapes from delay-Doppler images.This work was supported by NASA Ames, NVIDIA, Autodesk and the SETI Institute as part of the NASA Frontier Development Lab program.

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

ESS++: a C++ objected-oriented algorithm for Bayesian stochastic search model exploration

PubMed Central

Bottolo, Leonardo; Langley, Sarah R.; Petretto, Enrico; Tiret, Laurence; Tregouet, David; Richardson, Sylvia

2011-01-01

Summary: ESS++ is a C++ implementation of a fully Bayesian variable selection approach for single and multiple response linear regression. ESS++ works well both when the number of observations is larger than the number of predictors and in the ‘large p, small n’ case. In the current version, ESS++ can handle several hundred observations, thousands of predictors and a few responses simultaneously. The core engine of ESS++ for the selection of relevant predictors is based on Evolutionary Monte Carlo. Our implementation is open source, allowing community-based alterations and improvements. Availability: C++ source code and documentation including compilation instructions are available under GNU licence at http://bgx.org.uk/software/ESS.html. Contact: l.bottolo@imperial.ac.uk Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21233165

Precise Network Modeling of Systems Genetics Data Using the Bayesian Network Webserver.

PubMed

Ziebarth, Jesse D; Cui, Yan

2017-01-01

The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW, http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW ) is an integrated platform for Bayesian network modeling of biological datasets. It provides a web-based network modeling environment that seamlessly integrates advanced algorithms for probabilistic causal modeling and reasoning with Bayesian networks. BNW is designed for precise modeling of relatively small networks that contain less than 20 nodes. The structure learning algorithms used by BNW guarantee the discovery of the best (most probable) network structure given the data. To facilitate network modeling across multiple biological levels, BNW provides a very flexible interface that allows users to assign network nodes into different tiers and define the relationships between and within the tiers. This function is particularly useful for modeling systems genetics datasets that often consist of multiscalar heterogeneous genotype-to-phenotype data. BNW enables users to, within seconds or minutes, go from having a simply formatted input file containing a dataset to using a network model to make predictions about the interactions between variables and the potential effects of experimental interventions. In this chapter, we will introduce the functions of BNW and show how to model systems genetics datasets with BNW.

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Chavira, Mark; Cascio, Keith; Poll, Scott; Darwiche, Adnan; Uckun, Serdar

2008-01-01

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Hip fracture in the elderly: a re-analysis of the EPIDOS study with causal Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Caillet, Pascal; Klemm, Sarah; Ducher, Michel; Aussem, Alexandre; Schott, Anne-Marie

2015-01-01

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach. EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences. Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density. Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos

We present an automatic classification method for astronomical catalogs with missing data. We use Bayesian networks and a probabilistic graphical model that allows us to perform inference to predict missing values given observed data and dependency relationships between variables. To learn a Bayesian network from incomplete data, we use an iterative algorithm that utilizes sampling methods and expectation maximization to estimate the distributions and probabilistic dependencies of variables from data with missing values. To test our model, we use three catalogs with missing data (SAGE, Two Micron All Sky Survey, and UBVI) and one complete catalog (MACHO). We examine howmore » classification accuracy changes when information from missing data catalogs is included, how our method compares to traditional missing data approaches, and at what computational cost. Integrating these catalogs with missing data, we find that classification of variable objects improves by a few percent and by 15% for quasar detection while keeping the computational cost the same.« less

Artificial and Bayesian Neural Networks

PubMed

Korhani Kangi, Azam; Bahrampour, Abbas

2018-02-26

Introduction and purpose: In recent years the use of neural networks without any premises for investigation of prognosis in analyzing survival data has increased. Artificial neural networks (ANN) use small processors with a continuous network to solve problems inspired by the human brain. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) constitute a neural-based approach to modeling and non-linearization of complex issues using special algorithms and statistical methods. Gastric cancer incidence is the first and third ranking for men and women in Iran, respectively. The aim of the present study was to assess the value of an artificial neural network and a Bayesian neural network for modeling and predicting of probability of gastric cancer patient death. Materials and Methods: In this study, we used information on 339 patients aged from 20 to 90 years old with positive gastric cancer, referred to Afzalipoor and Shahid Bahonar Hospitals in Kerman City from 2001 to 2015. The three layers perceptron neural network (ANN) and the Bayesian neural network (BNN) were used for predicting the probability of mortality using the available data. To investigate differences between the models, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were generated. Results: In this study, the sensitivity and specificity of the artificial neural network and Bayesian neural network models were 0.882, 0.903 and 0.954, 0.909, respectively. Prediction accuracy and the area under curve ROC for the two models were 0.891, 0.944 and 0.935, 0.961. The age at diagnosis of gastric cancer was most important for predicting survival, followed by tumor grade, morphology, gender, smoking history, opium consumption, receiving chemotherapy, presence of metastasis, tumor stage, receiving radiotherapy, and being resident in a village. Conclusion: The findings of the present study indicated that the Bayesian neural network is preferable to an artificial neural network for predicting survival of gastric cancer patients in Iran. Creative Commons Attribution License

Detangling complex relationships in forensic data: principles and use of causal networks and their application to clinical forensic science.

PubMed

Lefèvre, Thomas; Lepresle, Aude; Chariot, Patrick

2015-09-01

The search for complex, nonlinear relationships and causality in data is hindered by the availability of techniques in many domains, including forensic science. Linear multivariable techniques are useful but present some shortcomings. In the past decade, Bayesian approaches have been introduced in forensic science. To date, authors have mainly focused on providing an alternative to classical techniques for quantifying effects and dealing with uncertainty. Causal networks, including Bayesian networks, can help detangle complex relationships in data. A Bayesian network estimates the joint probability distribution of data and graphically displays dependencies between variables and the circulation of information between these variables. In this study, we illustrate the interest in utilizing Bayesian networks for dealing with complex data through an application in clinical forensic science. Evaluating the functional impairment of assault survivors is a complex task for which few determinants are known. As routinely estimated in France, the duration of this impairment can be quantified by days of 'Total Incapacity to Work' ('Incapacité totale de travail,' ITT). In this study, we used a Bayesian network approach to identify the injury type, victim category and time to evaluation as the main determinants of the 'Total Incapacity to Work' (TIW). We computed the conditional probabilities associated with the TIW node and its parents. We compared this approach with a multivariable analysis, and the results of both techniques were converging. Thus, Bayesian networks should be considered a reliable means to detangle complex relationships in data.

Improved Object Localization Using Accurate Distance Estimation in Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Ur Rehman, Yasar Abbas; Tariq, Muhammad; Khan, Omar Usman

2015-01-01

Object localization plays a key role in many popular applications of Wireless Multimedia Sensor Networks (WMSN) and as a result, it has acquired a significant status for the research community. A significant body of research performs this task without considering node orientation, object geometry and environmental variations. As a result, the localized object does not reflect the real world scenarios. In this paper, a novel object localization scheme for WMSN has been proposed that utilizes range free localization, computer vision, and principle component analysis based algorithms. The proposed approach provides the best possible approximation of distance between a wmsn sink and an object, and the orientation of the object using image based information. Simulation results report 99% efficiency and an error ratio of 0.01 (around 1 ft) when compared to other popular techniques. PMID:26528919

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

Development of an Integrated Team Training Design and Assessment Architecture to Support Adaptability in Healthcare Teams

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

and implementation of embedded, adaptive feedback and performance assessment. The investigators also initiated work designing a Bayesian Belief ...training; Teamwork; Adaptive performance; Leadership; Simulation; Modeling; Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION...Trauma teams Team training Teamwork Adaptability Adaptive performance Leadership Simulation Modeling Bayesian belief networks (BBN) 6

Python Environment for Bayesian Learning: Inferring the Structure of Bayesian Networks from Knowledge and Data

PubMed Central

Shah, Abhik; Woolf, Peter

2009-01-01

Summary In this paper, we introduce pebl, a Python library and application for learning Bayesian network structure from data and prior knowledge that provides features unmatched by alternative software packages: the ability to use interventional data, flexible specification of structural priors, modeling with hidden variables and exploitation of parallel processing. PMID:20161541

A Bayesian approach to landscape ecological risk assessment applied to the upper Grande Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Kimberley K. Ayre; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances,...

Neural network modeling and an uncertainty analysis in Bayesian framework: A case study from the KTB borehole site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maiti, Saumen; Tiwari, Ram Krishna

2010-10-01

A new probabilistic approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) learning theory is proposed for decoding litho-facies boundaries from well-log data. We show that how a multi-layer-perceptron neural network model can be employed in Bayesian framework to classify changes in litho-log successions. The method is then applied to the German Continental Deep Drilling Program (KTB) well-log data for classification and uncertainty estimation in the litho-facies boundaries. In this framework, a posteriori distribution of network parameter is estimated via the principle of Bayesian probabilistic theory, and an objective function is minimized following the scaled conjugate gradient optimization scheme. For the model development, we inflict a suitable criterion, which provides probabilistic information by emulating different combinations of synthetic data. Uncertainty in the relationship between the data and the model space is appropriately taken care by assuming a Gaussian a priori distribution of networks parameters (e.g., synaptic weights and biases). Prior to applying the new method to the real KTB data, we tested the proposed method on synthetic examples to examine the sensitivity of neural network hyperparameters in prediction. Within this framework, we examine stability and efficiency of this new probabilistic approach using different kinds of synthetic data assorted with different level of correlated noise. Our data analysis suggests that the designed network topology based on the Bayesian paradigm is steady up to nearly 40% correlated noise; however, adding more noise (˜50% or more) degrades the results. We perform uncertainty analyses on training, validation, and test data sets with and devoid of intrinsic noise by making the Gaussian approximation of the a posteriori distribution about the peak model. We present a standard deviation error-map at the network output corresponding to the three types of the litho-facies present over the entire litho-section of the KTB. The comparisons of maximum a posteriori geological sections constructed here, based on the maximum a posteriori probability distribution, with the available geological information and the existing geophysical findings suggest that the BNN results reveal some additional finer details in the KTB borehole data at certain depths, which appears to be of some geological significance. We also demonstrate that the proposed BNN approach is superior to the conventional artificial neural network in terms of both avoiding "over-fitting" and aiding uncertainty estimation, which are vital for meaningful interpretation of geophysical records. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN-based approach renders a robust means for the classification of complex changes in the litho-facies successions and thus could provide a useful guide for understanding the crustal inhomogeneity and the structural discontinuity in many other tectonically complex regions.

Sensor fusion V; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 15-17, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Topics addressed include 3D object perception, human-machine interface in multisensor systems, sensor fusion architecture, fusion of multiple and distributed sensors, interface and decision models for sensor fusion, computational networks, simple sensing for complex action, multisensor-based control, and metrology and calibration of multisensor systems. Particular attention is given to controlling 3D objects by sketching 2D views, the graphical simulation and animation environment for flexible structure robots, designing robotic systems from sensorimotor modules, cylindrical object reconstruction from a sequence of images, an accurate estimation of surface properties by integrating information using Bayesian networks, an adaptive fusion model for a distributed detection system, multiple concurrent object descriptions in support of autonomous navigation, robot control with multiple sensors and heuristic knowledge, and optical array detectors for image sensors calibration. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Overlapping community detection in weighted networks via a Bayesian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Xiang, Xin; Tang, Buzhou; Chen, Qingcai; Fan, Shixi; Bu, Junzhao

2017-02-01

Complex networks as a powerful way to represent complex systems have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of complex network analysis is to detect communities embedded in networks. In the real world, weighted networks are very common and may contain overlapping communities where a node is allowed to belong to multiple communities. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach, called the Bayesian mixture network (BMN) model, to detect overlapping communities in weighted networks. The advantages of our method are (i) providing soft-partition solutions in weighted networks; (ii) providing soft memberships, which quantify 'how strongly' a node belongs to a community. Experiments on a large number of real and synthetic networks show that our model has the ability in detecting overlapping communities in weighted networks and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models at shedding light on community partition.

Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information. PMID:25938760

A Fault Diagnosis Methodology for Gear Pump Based on EEMD and Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Liu, Zengkai; Liu, Yonghong; Shan, Hongkai; Cai, Baoping; Huang, Qing

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a fault diagnosis methodology for a gear pump based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bayesian network. Essentially, the presented scheme is a multi-source information fusion based methodology. Compared with the conventional fault diagnosis with only EEMD, the proposed method is able to take advantage of all useful information besides sensor signals. The presented diagnostic Bayesian network consists of a fault layer, a fault feature layer and a multi-source information layer. Vibration signals from sensor measurement are decomposed by the EEMD method and the energy of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) are calculated as fault features. These features are added into the fault feature layer in the Bayesian network. The other sources of useful information are added to the information layer. The generalized three-layer Bayesian network can be developed by fully incorporating faults and fault symptoms as well as other useful information such as naked eye inspection and maintenance records. Therefore, diagnostic accuracy and capacity can be improved. The proposed methodology is applied to the fault diagnosis of a gear pump and the structure and parameters of the Bayesian network is established. Compared with artificial neural network and support vector machine classification algorithms, the proposed model has the best diagnostic performance when sensor data is used only. A case study has demonstrated that some information from human observation or system repair records is very helpful to the fault diagnosis. It is effective and efficient in diagnosing faults based on uncertain, incomplete information.

An Object-Oriented Network-Centric Software Architecture for Physical Computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Richard

1997-08-01

Recent developments in object-oriented computer languages and infrastructure such as the Internet, Web browsers, and the like provide an opportunity to define a more productive computational environment for scientific programming that is based more closely on the underlying mathematics describing physics than traditional programming languages such as FORTRAN or C++. In this talk I describe an object-oriented software architecture for representing physical problems that includes classes for such common mathematical objects as geometry, boundary conditions, partial differential and integral equations, discretization and numerical solution methods, etc. In practice, a scientific program written using this architecture looks remarkably like the mathematics used to understand the problem, is typically an order of magnitude smaller than traditional FORTRAN or C++ codes, and hence easier to understand, debug, describe, etc. All objects in this architecture are ``network-enabled,'' which means that components of a software solution to a physical problem can be transparently loaded from anywhere on the Internet or other global network. The architecture is expressed as an ``API,'' or application programmers interface specification, with reference embeddings in Java, Python, and C++. A C++ class library for an early version of this API has been implemented for machines ranging from PC's to the IBM SP2, meaning that phidentical codes run on all architectures.

An evaluation of Bayesian techniques for controlling model complexity and selecting inputs in a neural network for short-term load forecasting.

PubMed

Hippert, Henrique S; Taylor, James W

2010-04-01

Artificial neural networks have frequently been proposed for electricity load forecasting because of their capabilities for the nonlinear modelling of large multivariate data sets. Modelling with neural networks is not an easy task though; two of the main challenges are defining the appropriate level of model complexity, and choosing the input variables. This paper evaluates techniques for automatic neural network modelling within a Bayesian framework, as applied to six samples containing daily load and weather data for four different countries. We analyse input selection as carried out by the Bayesian 'automatic relevance determination', and the usefulness of the Bayesian 'evidence' for the selection of the best structure (in terms of number of neurones), as compared to methods based on cross-validation. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conducting indirect-treatment-comparison and network-meta-analysis studies: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices: part 2.

PubMed

Hoaglin, David C; Hawkins, Neil; Jansen, Jeroen P; Scott, David A; Itzler, Robbin; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Boersma, Cornelis; Thompson, David; Larholt, Kay M; Diaz, Mireya; Barrett, Annabel

2011-06-01

Evidence-based health care decision making requires comparison of all relevant competing interventions. In the absence of randomized controlled trials involving a direct comparison of all treatments of interest, indirect treatment comparisons and network meta-analysis provide useful evidence for judiciously selecting the best treatment(s). Mixed treatment comparisons, a special case of network meta-analysis, combine direct evidence and indirect evidence for particular pairwise comparisons, thereby synthesizing a greater share of the available evidence than traditional meta-analysis. This report from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices Task Force provides guidance on technical aspects of conducting network meta-analyses (our use of this term includes most methods that involve meta-analysis in the context of a network of evidence). We start with a discussion of strategies for developing networks of evidence. Next we briefly review assumptions of network meta-analysis. Then we focus on the statistical analysis of the data: objectives, models (fixed-effects and random-effects), frequentist versus Bayesian approaches, and model validation. A checklist highlights key components of network meta-analysis, and substantial examples illustrate indirect treatment comparisons (both frequentist and Bayesian approaches) and network meta-analysis. A further section discusses eight key areas for future research. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Common quandaries and their practical solutions in Bayesian network modeling

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2017-01-01

Use and popularity of Bayesian network (BN) modeling has greatly expanded in recent years, but many common problems remain. Here, I summarize key problems in BN model construction and interpretation,along with suggested practical solutions. Problems in BN model construction include parameterizing probability values, variable definition, complex network structures,...

Personalized recommendation via an improved NBI algorithm and user influence model in a Microblog network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Jie; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Zhen-jiang; Gui, Chang-ni

2013-10-01

Bipartite network based recommendations have attracted extensive attentions in recent years. Differing from traditional object-oriented recommendations, the recommendation in a Microblog network has two crucial differences. One is high authority users or one’s special friends usually play a very active role in tweet-oriented recommendation. The other is that the object in a Microblog network corresponds to a set of tweets on same topic instead of an actual and single entity, e.g. goods or movies in traditional networks. Thus repeat recommendations of the tweets in one’s collected topics are indispensable. Therefore, this paper improves network based inference (NBI) algorithm by original link matrix and link weight on resource allocation processes. This paper finally proposes the Microblog recommendation model based on the factors of improved network based inference and user influence model. Adjusting the weights of these two factors could generate the best recommendation results in algorithm accuracy and recommendation personalization.

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

SISSY: An example of a multi-threaded, networked, object-oriented databased application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scipioni, B.; Liu, D.; Song, T.

1993-05-01

The Systems Integration Support SYstem (SISSY) is presented and its capabilities and techniques are discussed. It is fully automated data collection and analysis system supporting the SSCL`s systems analysis activities as they relate to the Physics Detector and Simulation Facility (PDSF). SISSY itself is a paradigm of effective computing on the PDSF. It uses home-grown code (C++), network programming (RPC, SNMP), relational (SYBASE) and object-oriented (ObjectStore) DBMSs, UNIX operating system services (IRIX threads, cron, system utilities, shells scripts, etc.), and third party software applications (NetCentral Station, Wingz, DataLink) all of which act together as a single application to monitor andmore » analyze the PDSF.« less

Bayesian networks in overlay recipe optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binns, Lewis A.; Reynolds, Greg; Rigden, Timothy C.; Watkins, Stephen; Soroka, Andrew

2005-05-01

Currently, overlay measurements are characterized by "recipe", which defines both physical parameters such as focus, illumination et cetera, and also the software parameters such as algorithm to be used and regions of interest. Setting up these recipes requires both engineering time and wafer availability on an overlay tool, so reducing these requirements will result in higher tool productivity. One of the significant challenges to automating this process is that the parameters are highly and complexly correlated. At the same time, a high level of traceability and transparency is required in the recipe creation process, so a technique that maintains its decisions in terms of well defined physical parameters is desirable. Running time should be short, given the system (automatic recipe creation) is being implemented to reduce overheads. Finally, a failure of the system to determine acceptable parameters should be obvious, so a certainty metric is also desirable. The complex, nonlinear interactions make solution by an expert system difficult at best, especially in the verification of the resulting decision network. The transparency requirements tend to preclude classical neural networks and similar techniques. Genetic algorithms and other "global minimization" techniques require too much computational power (given system footprint and cost requirements). A Bayesian network, however, provides a solution to these requirements. Such a network, with appropriate priors, can be used during recipe creation / optimization not just to select a good set of parameters, but also to guide the direction of search, by evaluating the network state while only incomplete information is available. As a Bayesian network maintains an estimate of the probability distribution of nodal values, a maximum-entropy approach can be utilized to obtain a working recipe in a minimum or near-minimum number of steps. In this paper we discuss the potential use of a Bayesian network in such a capacity, reducing the amount of engineering intervention. We discuss the benefits of this approach, especially improved repeatability and traceability of the learning process, and quantification of uncertainty in decisions made. We also consider the problems associated with this approach, especially in detailed construction of network topology, validation of the Bayesian network and the recipes it generates, and issues arising from the integration of a Bayesian network with a complex multithreaded application; these primarily relate to maintaining Bayesian network and system architecture integrity.

Determining root correspondence between previously and newly detected objects

DOEpatents

Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, N Reginald

2014-06-17

A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

A Method of Face Detection with Bayesian Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarker, Goutam

2010-10-01

The objective of face detection is to identify all images which contain a face, irrespective of its orientation, illumination conditions etc. This is a hard problem, because the faces are highly variable in size, shape lighting conditions etc. Many methods have been designed and developed to detect faces in a single image. The present paper is based on one `Appearance Based Method' which relies on learning the facial and non facial features from image examples. This in its turn is based on statistical analysis of examples and counter examples of facial images and employs Bayesian Conditional Classification Rule to detect the probability of belongingness of a face (or non-face) within an image frame. The detection rate of the present system is very high and thereby the number of false positive and false negative detection is substantially low.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

2017-09-01

Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

PubMed

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.

Network structure exploration in networks with node attributes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Wang, Xiaolong; Bu, Junzhao; Tang, Buzhou; Xiang, Xin

2016-05-01

Complex networks provide a powerful way to represent complex systems and have been widely studied during the past several years. One of the most important tasks of network analysis is to detect structures (also called structural regularities) embedded in networks by determining group number and group partition. Most of network structure exploration models only consider network links. However, in real world networks, nodes may have attributes that are useful for network structure exploration. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) model to explore structural regularities in networks with node attributes, called Bayesian nonparametric attribute (BNPA) model. This model does not only take full advantage of both links between nodes and node attributes for group partition via shared hidden variables, but also determine group number automatically via the Bayesian nonparametric theory. Experiments conducted on a number of real and synthetic networks show that our BNPA model is able to automatically explore structural regularities in networks with node attributes and is competitive with other state-of-the-art models.

Mechanisms of Innovation Diffusion under Information Abundance and Information Scarcity--On the Contribution of Social Networks in Group vs. Individual Extension Approaches in Semi-Arid Kenya

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darr, Dietrich; Pretzsch, Jurgen

2008-01-01

Purpose: The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of innovation diffusion under group-oriented and individual-oriented extension. Current theoretical notions of innovation diffusion in social networks shall be briefly reviewed, and the concepts of "search" and "innovation" vis-a-vis "transfer" and…

On the use of multi-agent systems for the monitoring of industrial systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezki, Nafissa; Kazar, Okba; Mouss, Leila Hayet; Kahloul, Laid; Rezki, Djamil

2016-03-01

The objective of the current paper is to present an intelligent system for complex process monitoring, based on artificial intelligence technologies. This system aims to realize with success all the complex process monitoring tasks that are: detection, diagnosis, identification and reconfiguration. For this purpose, the development of a multi-agent system that combines multiple intelligences such as: multivariate control charts, neural networks, Bayesian networks and expert systems has became a necessity. The proposed system is evaluated in the monitoring of the complex process Tennessee Eastman process.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

This CD contains files that support the talk (see CASI ID 20100021404). There are 24 models that relate to the ADAPT system and 1 Excel worksheet. In the paper an investigation into the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems is described. The high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems are described in the talk. The data in the CD are the models of the 24 different power systems.

Coordinating complex problem-solving among distributed intelligent agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Richard M.

1992-01-01

A process-oriented control model is described for distributed problem solving. The model coordinates the transfer and manipulation of information across independent networked applications, both intelligent and conventional. The model was implemented using SOCIAL, a set of object-oriented tools for distributing computing. Complex sequences of distributed tasks are specified in terms of high level scripts. Scripts are executed by SOCIAL objects called Manager Agents, which realize an intelligent coordination model that routes individual tasks to suitable server applications across the network. These tools are illustrated in a prototype distributed system for decision support of ground operations for NASA's Space Shuttle fleet.

Hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Hui-feng

2018-03-01

As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve this problem, a hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness mechanism is proposed for high-speed optical access networks. This approach builds a so-called hierarchy Bayesian model, according to the structure of typical optical access networks. Moreover, the proposed scheme is able to conduct simple services awareness operation in each optical network unit (ONU) and to perform complex services awareness from the whole view of system in optical line terminal (OLT). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve better quality of services (QoS), in terms of packet loss rate and time delay.

Technical Topic 3.2.2.d Bayesian and Non-Parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural Networks with Bayesian Networks for Data Fusion and Predictive Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-31

and included explosives such as TATP, HMTD, RDX, RDX, ammonium nitrate , potassium perchlorate, potassium nitrate , sugar, and TNT. The approach...Distribution Unlimited UU UU UU UU 31-05-2016 15-Apr-2014 14-Jan-2015 Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non- parametric Statistics...of Papers published in non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Technical Topic 3.2.2. d Bayesian and Non-parametric Statistics: Integration of Neural

A Bayesian Belief Network approach to assess the potential of non wood forest products for small scale forest owners

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacik, Harald; Huber, Patrick; Hujala, Teppo; Kurtilla, Mikko; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2015-04-01

It is an integral element of the European understanding of sustainable forest management to foster the design and marketing of forest products, non-wood forest products (NWFPs) and services that go beyond the production of timber. Despite the relevance of NWFPs in Europe, forest management and planning methods have been traditionally tailored towards wood and wood products, because most forest management models and silviculture techniques were developed to ensure a sustained production of timber. Although several approaches exist which explicitly consider NWFPs as management objectives in forest planning, specific models are needed for the assessment of their production potential in different environmental contexts and for different management regimes. Empirical data supporting a comprehensive assessment of the potential of NWFPs are rare, thus making development of statistical models particularly problematic. However, the complex causal relationships between the sustained production of NWFPs, the available ecological resources, as well as the organizational and the market potential of forest management regimes are well suited for knowledge-based expert models. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that have become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to the powerful probability theory involved, which makes BBNs suitable to deal with a wide range of environmental problems. In this contribution we present the development of a Bayesian belief network to assess the potential of NWFPs for small scale forest owners. A three stage iterative process with stakeholder and expert participation was used to develop the Bayesian Network within the frame of the StarTree Project. The group of participants varied in the stages of the modelling process. A core team, consisting of one technical expert and two domain experts was responsible for the entire modelling process as well as for the first prototype of the network structure, including nodes and relationships. A top-level causal network, was further decomposed to sub level networks. Stakeholder participation including a group of experts from different related subject areas was used in model verification and validation. We demonstrate that BBNs can be used to transfer expert knowledge from science to practice and thus have the ability to contribute to improved problem understanding of non-expert decision makers for a sustainable production of NWFPs.

Explaining Inference on a Population of Independent Agents Using Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutovsky, Peter

2013-01-01

The main goal of this research is to design, implement, and evaluate a novel explanation method, the hierarchical explanation method (HEM), for explaining Bayesian network (BN) inference when the network is modeling a population of conditionally independent agents, each of which is modeled as a subnetwork. For example, consider disease-outbreak…

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing—with its unique statistical properties—became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca. PMID:28817636

Improved head direction command classification using an optimised Bayesian neural network.

PubMed

Nguyen, Son T; Nguyen, Hung T; Taylor, Philip B; Middleton, James

2006-01-01

Assistive technologies have recently emerged to improve the quality of life of severely disabled people by enhancing their independence in daily activities. Since many of those individuals have limited or non-existing control from the neck downward, alternative hands-free input modalities have become very important for these people to access assistive devices. In hands-free control, head movement has been proved to be a very effective user interface as it can provide a comfortable, reliable and natural way to access the device. Recently, neural networks have been shown to be useful not only for real-time pattern recognition but also for creating user-adaptive models. Since multi-layer perceptron neural networks trained using standard back-propagation may cause poor generalisation, the Bayesian technique has been proposed to improve the generalisation and robustness of these networks. This paper describes the use of Bayesian neural networks in developing a hands-free wheelchair control system. The experimental results show that with the optimised architecture, classification Bayesian neural networks can detect head commands of wheelchair users accurately irrespective to their levels of injuries.

Uncovering robust patterns of microRNA co-expression across cancers using Bayesian Relevance Networks.

PubMed

Ramachandran, Parameswaran; Sánchez-Taltavull, Daniel; Perkins, Theodore J

2017-01-01

Co-expression networks have long been used as a tool for investigating the molecular circuitry governing biological systems. However, most algorithms for constructing co-expression networks were developed in the microarray era, before high-throughput sequencing-with its unique statistical properties-became the norm for expression measurement. Here we develop Bayesian Relevance Networks, an algorithm that uses Bayesian reasoning about expression levels to account for the differing levels of uncertainty in expression measurements between highly- and lowly-expressed entities, and between samples with different sequencing depths. It combines data from groups of samples (e.g., replicates) to estimate group expression levels and confidence ranges. It then computes uncertainty-moderated estimates of cross-group correlations between entities, and uses permutation testing to assess their statistical significance. Using large scale miRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that our Bayesian update of the classical Relevance Networks algorithm provides improved reproducibility in co-expression estimates and lower false discovery rates in the resulting co-expression networks. Software is available at www.perkinslab.ca.

bnstruct: an R package for Bayesian Network structure learning in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Franzin, Alberto; Sambo, Francesco; Di Camillo, Barbara

2017-04-15

A Bayesian Network is a probabilistic graphical model that encodes probabilistic dependencies between a set of random variables. We introduce bnstruct, an open source R package to (i) learn the structure and the parameters of a Bayesian Network from data in the presence of missing values and (ii) perform reasoning and inference on the learned Bayesian Networks. To the best of our knowledge, there is no other open source software that provides methods for all of these tasks, particularly the manipulation of missing data, which is a common situation in practice. The software is implemented in R and C and is available on CRAN under a GPL licence. francesco.sambo@unipd.it. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Using Bayesian Networks for Candidate Generation in Consistency-based Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narasimhan, Sriram; Mengshoel, Ole

2008-01-01

Consistency-based diagnosis relies heavily on the assumption that discrepancies between model predictions and sensor observations can be detected accurately. When sources of uncertainty like sensor noise and model abstraction exist robust schemes have to be designed to make a binary decision on whether predictions are consistent with observations. This risks the occurrence of false alarms and missed alarms when an erroneous decision is made. Moreover when multiple sensors (with differing sensing properties) are available the degree of match between predictions and observations can be used to guide the search for fault candidates. In this paper we propose a novel approach to handle this problem using Bayesian networks. In the consistency- based diagnosis formulation, automatically generated Bayesian networks are used to encode a probabilistic measure of fit between predictions and observations. A Bayesian network inference algorithm is used to compute most probable fault candidates.

Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, Harold; Monti, Stefano; Montano, Monty; Steinberg, Martin H.; Perls, Thomas T.; Sebastiani, Paola

2016-05-01

Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.

A case of complex regional pain syndrome with agnosia for object orientation.

PubMed

Robinson, Gail; Cohen, Helen; Goebel, Andreas

2011-07-01

This systematic investigation of the neurocognitive correlates of complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) in a single case also reports agnosia for object orientation in the context of persistent CRPS. We report a patient (JW) with severe long-standing CRPS who had no difficulty identifying and naming line drawings of objects presented in 1 of 4 cardinal orientations. In contrast, he was extremely poor at reorienting these objects into the correct upright orientation and in judging whether an object was upright or not. Moreover, JW made orientation errors when copying drawings of objects, and he also showed features of mirror reversal in writing single words and reading single letters. The findings are discussed in relation to accounts of visual processing. Agnosia for object orientation is the term for impaired knowledge of an object's orientation despite good recognition and naming of the same misoriented object. This defect has previously only been reported in patients with major structural brain lesions. The neuroanatomical correlates are discussed. The patient had no structural brain lesion, raising the possibility that nonstructural reorganisation of cortical networks may be responsible for his deficits. Other patients with CRPS may have related neurocognitive defects. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The functional significance of velocity storage and its dependence on gravity.

PubMed

Laurens, Jean; Angelaki, Dora E

2011-05-01

Research in the vestibular field has revealed the existence of a central process, called 'velocity storage', that is activated by both visual and vestibular rotation cues and is modified by gravity, but whose functional relevance during natural motion has often been questioned. In this review, we explore spatial orientation in the context of a Bayesian model of vestibular information processing. In this framework, deficiencies/ambiguities in the peripheral vestibular sensors are compensated for by central processing to more accurately estimate rotation velocity, orientation relative to gravity, and inertial motion. First, an inverse model of semicircular canal dynamics is used to reconstruct rotation velocity by integrating canal signals over time. However, its low-frequency bandwidth is limited to avoid accumulation of noise in the integrator. A second internal model uses this reconstructed rotation velocity to compute an internal estimate of tilt and inertial acceleration. The bandwidth of this second internal model is also restricted at low frequencies to avoid noise accumulation and drift of the tilt/translation estimator over time. As a result, low-frequency translation can be erroneously misinterpreted as tilt. The time constants of these two integrators (internal models) can be conceptualized as two Bayesian priors of zero rotation velocity and zero linear acceleration, respectively. The model replicates empirical observations like 'velocity storage' and 'frequency segregation' and explains spatial orientation (e.g., 'somatogravic') illusions. Importantly, the functional significance of this network, including velocity storage, is found during short-lasting, natural head movements, rather than at low frequencies with which it has been traditionally studied.

The functional significance of velocity storage and its dependence on gravity

PubMed Central

Laurens, Jean

2013-01-01

Research in the vestibular field has revealed the existence of a central process, called ‘velocity storage’, that is activated by both visual and vestibular rotation cues and is modified by gravity, but whose functional relevance during natural motion has often been questioned. In this review, we explore spatial orientation in the context of a Bayesian model of vestibular information processing. In this framework, deficiencies/ambiguities in the peripheral vestibular sensors are compensated for by central processing to more accurately estimate rotation velocity, orientation relative to gravity, and inertial motion. First, an inverse model of semicircular canal dynamics is used to reconstruct rotation velocity by integrating canal signals over time. However, its low-frequency bandwidth is limited to avoid accumulation of noise in the integrator. A second internal model uses this reconstructed rotation velocity to compute an internal estimate of tilt and inertial acceleration. The bandwidth of this second internal model is also restricted at low frequencies to avoid noise accumulation and drift of the tilt/translation estimator over time. As a result, low-frequency translation can be erroneously misinterpreted as tilt. The time constants of these two integrators (internal models) can be conceptualized as two Bayesian priors of zero rotation velocity and zero linear acceleration, respectively. The model replicates empirical observations like ‘velocity storage’ and ‘frequency segregation’ and explains spatial orientation (e.g., ‘somatogravic’) illusions. Importantly, the functional significance of this network, including velocity storage, is found during short-lasting, natural head movements, rather than at low frequencies with which it has been traditionally studied. PMID:21293850

F-MAP: A Bayesian approach to infer the gene regulatory network using external hints

PubMed Central

Shahdoust, Maryam; Mahjub, Hossein; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2017-01-01

The Common topological features of related species gene regulatory networks suggest reconstruction of the network of one species by using the further information from gene expressions profile of related species. We present an algorithm to reconstruct the gene regulatory network named; F-MAP, which applies the knowledge about gene interactions from related species. Our algorithm sets a Bayesian framework to estimate the precision matrix of one species microarray gene expressions dataset to infer the Gaussian Graphical model of the network. The conjugate Wishart prior is used and the information from related species is applied to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior distribution by using the factor analysis. Applying the proposed algorithm on six related species of drosophila shows that the precision of reconstructed networks is improved considerably compared to the precision of networks constructed by other Bayesian approaches. PMID:28938012

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for the Production and Inventory Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Ji-Sun; Takazaki, Noriyuki; Lee, Tae-Hong; Kim, Jin-Il; Lee, Hee-Hyol

In general, the production quantities and delivered goods are changed randomly and then the total stock is also changed randomly. This paper deals with the production and inventory control using the Dynamic Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probabilistic model which represents the qualitative dependence between two or more random variables by the graph structure, and indicates the quantitative relations between individual variables by the conditional probability. The probabilistic distribution of the total stock is calculated through the propagation of the probability on the network. Moreover, an adjusting rule of the production quantities to maintain the probability of a lower limit and a ceiling of the total stock to certain values is shown.

Probabilistic inference using linear Gaussian importance sampling for hybrid Bayesian networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Chang, K. C.

2005-05-01

Probabilistic inference for Bayesian networks is in general NP-hard using either exact algorithms or approximate methods. However, for very complex networks, only the approximate methods such as stochastic sampling could be used to provide a solution given any time constraint. There are several simulation methods currently available. They include logic sampling (the first proposed stochastic method for Bayesian networks, the likelihood weighting algorithm) the most commonly used simulation method because of its simplicity and efficiency, the Markov blanket scoring method, and the importance sampling algorithm. In this paper, we first briefly review and compare these available simulation methods, then we propose an improved importance sampling algorithm called linear Gaussian importance sampling algorithm for general hybrid model (LGIS). LGIS is aimed for hybrid Bayesian networks consisting of both discrete and continuous random variables with arbitrary distributions. It uses linear function and Gaussian additive noise to approximate the true conditional probability distribution for continuous variable given both its parents and evidence in a Bayesian network. One of the most important features of the newly developed method is that it can adaptively learn the optimal important function from the previous samples. We test the inference performance of LGIS using a 16-node linear Gaussian model and a 6-node general hybrid model. The performance comparison with other well-known methods such as Junction tree (JT) and likelihood weighting (LW) shows that LGIS-GHM is very promising.

Impact of censoring on learning Bayesian networks in survival modelling.

PubMed

Stajduhar, Ivan; Dalbelo-Basić, Bojana; Bogunović, Nikola

2009-11-01

Bayesian networks are commonly used for presenting uncertainty and covariate interactions in an easily interpretable way. Because of their efficient inference and ability to represent causal relationships, they are an excellent choice for medical decision support systems in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. Although good procedures for learning Bayesian networks from data have been defined, their performance in learning from censored survival data has not been widely studied. In this paper, we explore how to use these procedures to learn about possible interactions between prognostic factors and their influence on the variate of interest. We study how censoring affects the probability of learning correct Bayesian network structures. Additionally, we analyse the potential usefulness of the learnt models for predicting the time-independent probability of an event of interest. We analysed the influence of censoring with a simulation on synthetic data sampled from randomly generated Bayesian networks. We used two well-known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data: a constraint-based method and a score-based method. We compared the performance of each method under different levels of censoring to those of the naive Bayes classifier and the proportional hazards model. We did additional experiments on several datasets from real-world medical domains. The machine-learning methods treated censored cases in the data as event-free. We report and compare results for several commonly used model evaluation metrics. On average, the proportional hazards method outperformed other methods in most censoring setups. As part of the simulation study, we also analysed structural similarities of the learnt networks. Heavy censoring, as opposed to no censoring, produces up to a 5% surplus and up to 10% missing total arcs. It also produces up to 50% missing arcs that should originally be connected to the variate of interest. Presented methods for learning Bayesian networks from data can be used to learn from censored survival data in the presence of light censoring (up to 20%) by treating censored cases as event-free. Given intermediate or heavy censoring, the learnt models become tuned to the majority class and would thus require a different approach.

Attribute and topology based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

DOEpatents

Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, Reginald N.

2016-01-19

A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

Deep Learning Neural Networks and Bayesian Neural Networks in Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chernoded, Andrey; Dudko, Lev; Myagkov, Igor; Volkov, Petr

2017-10-01

Most of the modern analyses in high energy physics use signal-versus-background classification techniques of machine learning methods and neural networks in particular. Deep learning neural network is the most promising modern technique to separate signal and background and now days can be widely and successfully implemented as a part of physical analysis. In this article we compare Deep learning and Bayesian neural networks application as a classifiers in an instance of top quark analysis.

Distributed multisensory integration in a recurrent network model through supervised learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, He; Wong, K. Y. Michael

Sensory integration between different modalities has been extensively studied. It is suggested that the brain integrates signals from different modalities in a Bayesian optimal way. However, how the Bayesian rule is implemented in a neural network remains under debate. In this work we propose a biologically plausible recurrent network model, which can perform Bayesian multisensory integration after trained by supervised learning. Our model is composed of two modules, each for one modality. We assume that each module is a recurrent network, whose activity represents the posterior distribution of each stimulus. The feedforward input on each module is the likelihood of each modality. Two modules are integrated through cross-links, which are feedforward connections from the other modality, and reciprocal connections, which are recurrent connections between different modules. By stochastic gradient descent, we successfully trained the feedforward and recurrent coupling matrices simultaneously, both of which resembles the Mexican-hat. We also find that there are more than one set of coupling matrices that can approximate the Bayesian theorem well. Specifically, reciprocal connections and cross-links will compensate each other if one of them is removed. Even though trained with two inputs, the network's performance with only one input is in good accordance with what is predicted by the Bayesian theorem.

Some new classification methods for hyperspectral remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Pei-jun; Chen, Yun-hao; Jones, Simon; Ferwerda, Jelle G.; Chen, Zhi-jun; Zhang, Hua-peng; Tan, Kun; Yin, Zuo-xia

2006-10-01

Hyperspectral Remote Sensing (HRS) is one of the most significant recent achievements of Earth Observation Technology. Classification is the most commonly employed processing methodology. In this paper three new hyperspectral RS image classification methods are analyzed. These methods are: Object-oriented FIRS image classification, HRS image classification based on information fusion and HSRS image classification by Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). OMIS FIRS image is used as the example data. Object-oriented techniques have gained popularity for RS image classification in recent years. In such method, image segmentation is used to extract the regions from the pixel information based on homogeneity criteria at first, and spectral parameters like mean vector, texture, NDVI and spatial/shape parameters like aspect ratio, convexity, solidity, roundness and orientation for each region are calculated, finally classification of the image using the region feature vectors and also using suitable classifiers such as artificial neural network (ANN). It proves that object-oriented methods can improve classification accuracy since they utilize information and features both from the point and the neighborhood, and the processing unit is a polygon (in which all pixels are homogeneous and belong to the class). HRS image classification based on information fusion, divides all bands of the image into different groups initially, and extracts features from every group according to the properties of each group. Three levels of information fusion: data level fusion, feature level fusion and decision level fusion are used to HRS image classification. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) can perform well in RS image classification. In order to promote the advances of ANN used for HIRS image classification, Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), the most commonly used neural network, is used to HRS image classification.

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning.

PubMed

Stelzenmüller, V; Lee, J; Garnacho, E; Rogers, S I

2010-10-01

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of object-oriented knowledge representation with the CLIPS rule based system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logie, David S.; Kamil, Hasan

1990-01-01

The paper describes a portion of the work aimed at developing an integrated, knowledge based environment for the development of engineering-oriented applications. An Object Representation Language (ORL) was implemented in C++ which is used to build and modify an object-oriented knowledge base. The ORL was designed in such a way so as to be easily integrated with other representation schemes that could effectively reason with the object base. Specifically, the integration of the ORL with the rule based system C Language Production Systems (CLIPS), developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center, will be discussed. The object-oriented knowledge representation provides a natural means of representing problem data as a collection of related objects. Objects are comprised of descriptive properties and interrelationships. The object-oriented model promotes efficient handling of the problem data by allowing knowledge to be encapsulated in objects. Data is inherited through an object network via the relationship links. Together, the two schemes complement each other in that the object-oriented approach efficiently handles problem data while the rule based knowledge is used to simulate the reasoning process. Alone, the object based knowledge is little more than an object-oriented data storage scheme; however, the CLIPS inference engine adds the mechanism to directly and automatically reason with that knowledge. In this hybrid scheme, the expert system dynamically queries for data and can modify the object base with complete access to all the functionality of the ORL from rules.

Java and its future in biomedical computing.

PubMed Central

Rodgers, R P

1996-01-01

Java, a new object-oriented computing language related to C++, is receiving considerable attention due to its use in creating network-sharable, platform-independent software modules (known as "applets") that can be used with the World Wide Web. The Web has rapidly become the most commonly used information-retrieval tool associated with the global computer network known as the Internet, and Java has the potential to further accelerate the Web's application to medical problems. Java's potentially wide acceptance due to its Web association and its own technical merits also suggests that it may become a popular language for non-Web-based, object-oriented computing. PMID:8880677

Uncertainty Quantification of Hypothesis Testing for the Integrated Knowledge Engine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuellar, Leticia

2012-05-31

The Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) is a tool of Bayesian analysis, based on Bayesian Belief Networks or Bayesian networks for short. A Bayesian network is a graphical model (directed acyclic graph) that allows representing the probabilistic structure of many variables assuming a localized type of dependency called the Markov property. The Markov property in this instance makes any node or random variable to be independent of any non-descendant node given information about its parent. A direct consequence of this property is that it is relatively easy to incorporate new evidence and derive the appropriate consequences, which in general is notmore » an easy or feasible task. Typically we use Bayesian networks as predictive models for a small subset of the variables, either the leave nodes or the root nodes. In IKE, since most applications deal with diagnostics, we are interested in predicting the likelihood of the root nodes given new observations on any of the children nodes. The root nodes represent the various possible outcomes of the analysis, and an important problem is to determine when we have gathered enough evidence to lean toward one of these particular outcomes. This document presents criteria to decide when the evidence gathered is sufficient to draw a particular conclusion or decide in favor of a particular outcome by quantifying the uncertainty in the conclusions that are drawn from the data. The material in this document is organized as follows: Section 2 presents briefly a forensics Bayesian network, and we explore evaluating the information provided by new evidence by looking first at the posterior distribution of the nodes of interest, and then at the corresponding posterior odds ratios. Section 3 presents a third alternative: Bayes Factors. In section 4 we finalize by showing the relation between the posterior odds ratios and Bayes factors and showing examples these cases, and in section 5 we conclude by providing clear guidelines of how to use these for the type of Bayesian networks used in IKE.« less

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental assessments for evidence-based policy

EPA Science Inventory

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the p...

SSBRP User Operations Facility (UOF) Overview and Development Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picinich, Lou; Stone, Thom; Sun, Charles; Windrem, May; Givens, John J. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

This paper will present the Space Station Biological Research Project (SSBRP) User Operations Facility (UOF) architecture and development strategy. A major element of the UOF at NASA Ames Research Center, the Communication and Data System (CDS) will be the primary focus of the discussions. CDS operational, telescience, security, and development objectives will be discussed along with CDS implementation strategy. The implementation strategy discussions will include: Object Oriented Analysis & Design, System & Software Prototyping, and Technology Utilization. A CDS design overview that includes: CDS Context Diagram, CDS Architecture, Object Models, Use Cases, and User Interfaces will also be presented. CDS development brings together "cutting edge" technologies and techniques such as: object oriented development, network security, multimedia networking, web-based data distribution, JAVA, and graphical user interfaces. Use of these "cutting edge" technologies and techniques translates directly to lower development and operations costs.

Application of a data-mining method based on Bayesian networks to lesion-deficit analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herskovits, Edward H.; Gerring, Joan P.

2003-01-01

Although lesion-deficit analysis (LDA) has provided extensive information about structure-function associations in the human brain, LDA has suffered from the difficulties inherent to the analysis of spatial data, i.e., there are many more variables than subjects, and data may be difficult to model using standard distributions, such as the normal distribution. We herein describe a Bayesian method for LDA; this method is based on data-mining techniques that employ Bayesian networks to represent structure-function associations. These methods are computationally tractable, and can represent complex, nonlinear structure-function associations. When applied to the evaluation of data obtained from a study of the psychiatric sequelae of traumatic brain injury in children, this method generates a Bayesian network that demonstrates complex, nonlinear associations among lesions in the left caudate, right globus pallidus, right side of the corpus callosum, right caudate, and left thalamus, and subsequent development of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, confirming and extending our previous statistical analysis of these data. Furthermore, analysis of simulated data indicates that methods based on Bayesian networks may be more sensitive and specific for detecting associations among categorical variables than methods based on chi-square and Fisher exact statistics.

Identifying online user reputation of user-object bipartite networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao-Lu; Liu, Jian-Guo; Yang, Kai; Guo, Qiang; Han, Jing-Ti

2017-02-01

Identifying online user reputation based on the rating information of the user-object bipartite networks is important for understanding online user collective behaviors. Based on the Bayesian analysis, we present a parameter-free algorithm for ranking online user reputation, where the user reputation is calculated based on the probability that their ratings are consistent with the main part of all user opinions. The experimental results show that the AUC values of the presented algorithm could reach 0.8929 and 0.8483 for the MovieLens and Netflix data sets, respectively, which is better than the results generated by the CR and IARR methods. Furthermore, the experimental results for different user groups indicate that the presented algorithm outperforms the iterative ranking methods in both ranking accuracy and computation complexity. Moreover, the results for the synthetic networks show that the computation complexity of the presented algorithm is a linear function of the network size, which suggests that the presented algorithm is very effective and efficient for the large scale dynamic online systems.

Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Aaron

2014-01-01

This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

A conceptual model for site-level ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) in the Sacramento Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Hansen, Eric C.; Scherer, Rick D.; Patterson, Laura C.

2015-08-14

Bayesian networks further provide a clear visual display of the model that facilitates understanding among various stakeholders (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Empirical data and expert judgment can be combined, as continuous or categorical variables, to update knowledge about the system (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Importantly, Bayesian network models allow inference from causes to consequences, but also from consequences to causes, so that data can inform the states of nodes (values of different random variables) in either direction (Marcot and others, 2001; Uusitalo , 2007). Because they can incorporate both decision nodes that represent management actions and utility nodes that quantify the costs and benefits of outcomes, Bayesian networks are ideally suited to risk analysis and adaptive management (Nyberg and others, 2006; Howes and others, 2010). Thus, Bayesian network models are useful in situations where empirical data are not available, such as questions concerning the responses of giant gartersnakes to management.

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

A Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithm for White Matter Parameter Estimation from Compressed Multi-shell Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-09-01

We propose a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for improved estimation of white matter fiber parameters from compressed (under-sampled q-space) multi-shell diffusion MRI data. The multi-shell data is represented in a dictionary form using a non-monoexponential decay model of diffusion, based on continuous gamma distribution of diffusivities. The fiber volume fractions with predefined orientations, which are the unknown parameters, form the dictionary weights. These unknown parameters are estimated with a linear un-mixing framework, using a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm. A localized learning of hyperparameters at each voxel and for each possible fiber orientations improves the parameter estimation. Our experiments using synthetic data from the ISBI 2012 HARDI reconstruction challenge and in-vivo data from the Human Connectome Project demonstrate the improvements.

[Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network].

PubMed

Noh, Wonjung; Seomun, Gyeongae

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0. We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit. KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects.

PubMed

Leu, Sou-Sen; Chang, Ching-Miao

2013-05-01

There are four primary accident types at steel building construction (SC) projects: falls (tumbles), object falls, object collapse, and electrocution. Several systematic safety risk assessment approaches, such as fault tree analysis (FTA) and failure mode and effect criticality analysis (FMECA), have been used to evaluate safety risks at SC projects. However, these traditional methods ineffectively address dependencies among safety factors at various levels that fail to provide early warnings to prevent occupational accidents. To overcome the limitations of traditional approaches, this study addresses the development of a safety risk-assessment model for SC projects by establishing the Bayesian networks (BN) based on fault tree (FT) transformation. The BN-based safety risk-assessment model was validated against the safety inspection records of six SC building projects and nine projects in which site accidents occurred. The ranks of posterior probabilities from the BN model were highly consistent with the accidents that occurred at each project site. The model accurately provides site safety-management abilities by calculating the probabilities of safety risks and further analyzing the causes of accidents based on their relationships in BNs. In practice, based on the analysis of accident risks and significant safety factors, proper preventive safety management strategies can be established to reduce the occurrence of accidents on SC sites. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Dependency Computation for Dynamic Hybrid Bayesian Network in On-line System Health Management Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-02

intervals (Neil, Tailor, Marquez, Fenton , & Hear, 2007). This is cumbersome, error prone and usually inaccurate. Even though a universal framework...Science. Neil, M., Tailor, M., Marquez, D., Fenton , N., & Hear. (2007). Inference in Bayesian networks using dynamic discretisation. Statistics

A Bayesian network approach for causal inferences in pesticide risk assessment and management

EPA Science Inventory

Pesticide risk assessment and management must balance societal benefits and ecosystem protection, based on quantified risks and the strength of the causal linkages between uses of the pesticide and socioeconomic and ecological endpoints of concern. A Bayesian network (BN) is a gr...

Bayesian algorithm implementation in a real time exposure assessment model on benzene with calculation of associated cancer risks.

PubMed

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A; Karakitsios, Spyros P; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L; Kassomenos, Pavlos A; Pilidis, Georgios A

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations.

Bayesian Algorithm Implementation in a Real Time Exposure Assessment Model on Benzene with Calculation of Associated Cancer Risks

PubMed Central

Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Gotti, Alberto; Papaloukas, Costas L.; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

2009-01-01

The objective of the current study was the development of a reliable modeling platform to calculate in real time the personal exposure and the associated health risk for filling station employees evaluating current environmental parameters (traffic, meteorological and amount of fuel traded) determined by the appropriate sensor network. A set of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed to predict benzene exposure pattern for the filling station employees. Furthermore, a Physiology Based Pharmaco-Kinetic (PBPK) risk assessment model was developed in order to calculate the lifetime probability distribution of leukemia to the employees, fed by data obtained by the ANN model. Bayesian algorithm was involved in crucial points of both model sub compartments. The application was evaluated in two filling stations (one urban and one rural). Among several algorithms available for the development of the ANN exposure model, Bayesian regularization provided the best results and seemed to be a promising technique for prediction of the exposure pattern of that occupational population group. On assessing the estimated leukemia risk under the scope of providing a distribution curve based on the exposure levels and the different susceptibility of the population, the Bayesian algorithm was a prerequisite of the Monte Carlo approach, which is integrated in the PBPK-based risk model. In conclusion, the modeling system described herein is capable of exploiting the information collected by the environmental sensors in order to estimate in real time the personal exposure and the resulting health risk for employees of gasoline filling stations. PMID:22399936

Bayesian network prior: network analysis of biological data using external knowledge

PubMed Central

Isci, Senol; Dogan, Haluk; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Otu, Hasan H.

2014-01-01

Motivation: Reverse engineering GI networks from experimental data is a challenging task due to the complex nature of the networks and the noise inherent in the data. One way to overcome these hurdles would be incorporating the vast amounts of external biological knowledge when building interaction networks. We propose a framework where GI networks are learned from experimental data using Bayesian networks (BNs) and the incorporation of external knowledge is also done via a BN that we call Bayesian Network Prior (BNP). BNP depicts the relation between various evidence types that contribute to the event ‘gene interaction’ and is used to calculate the probability of a candidate graph (G) in the structure learning process. Results: Our simulation results on synthetic, simulated and real biological data show that the proposed approach can identify the underlying interaction network with high accuracy even when the prior information is distorted and outperforms existing methods. Availability: Accompanying BNP software package is freely available for academic use at http://bioe.bilgi.edu.tr/BNP. Contact: hasan.otu@bilgi.edu.tr Supplementary Information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24215027

Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

2014-05-01

Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

Model Diagnostics for Bayesian Networks. Research Report. ETS RR-04-17

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinharay, Sandip

2004-01-01

Assessing fit of psychometric models has always been an issue of enormous interest, but there exists no unanimously agreed upon item fit diagnostic for the models. Bayesian networks, frequently used in educational assessments (see, for example, Mislevy, Almond, Yan, & Steinberg, 2001) primarily for learning about students' knowledge and…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ng, B

This survey gives an overview of popular generative models used in the modeling of stochastic temporal systems. In particular, this survey is organized into two parts. The first part discusses the discrete-time representations of dynamic Bayesian networks and dynamic relational probabilistic models, while the second part discusses the continuous-time representation of continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Metrics for evaluating performance and uncertainty of Bayesian network models

Treesearch

Bruce G. Marcot

2012-01-01

This paper presents a selected set of existing and new metrics for gauging Bayesian network model performance and uncertainty. Selected existing and new metrics are discussed for conducting model sensitivity analysis (variance reduction, entropy reduction, case file simulation); evaluating scenarios (influence analysis); depicting model complexity (numbers of model...

Using Bayesian networks to support decision-focused information retrieval

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehner, P.; Elsaesser, C.; Seligman, L.

This paper has described an approach to controlling the process of pulling data/information from distributed data bases in a way that is specific to a persons specific decision making context. Our prototype implementation of this approach uses a knowledge-based planner to generate a plan, an automatically constructed Bayesian network to evaluate the plan, specialized processing of the network to derive key information items that would substantially impact the evaluation of the plan (e.g., determine that replanning is needed), automated construction of Standing Requests for Information (SRIs) which are automated functions that monitor changes and trends in distributed data base thatmore » are relevant to the key information items. This emphasis of this paper is on how Bayesian networks are used.« less

Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains.

PubMed

Holt, J; Leach, A W; Johnson, S; Tu, D M; Nhu, D T; Anh, N T; Quinlan, M M; Whittle, P J L; Mengersen, K; Mumford, J D

2018-02-01

The production of an agricultural commodity involves a sequence of processes: planting/growing, harvesting, sorting/grading, postharvest treatment, packing, and exporting. A Bayesian network has been developed to represent the level of potential infestation of an agricultural commodity by a specified pest along an agricultural production chain. It reflects the dependency of this infestation on the predicted level of pest challenge, the anticipated susceptibility of the commodity to the pest, the level of impact from pest control measures as designed, and any variation from that due to uncertainty in measure efficacy. The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a particular level of fruit fly infestation of these exports; rather, they provide the most likely, alternative, or worst-case scenarios of the impact of measures. As a means to facilitate agreement for trade, the model provides a framework to support communication between exporters and importers about any differences in perceptions of the risk reduction achieved by pest control measures deployed during the commodity production chain. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bayesian network analyses of resistance pathways against efavirenz and nevirapine

PubMed Central

Deforche, Koen; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Grossman, Zehave; Soares, Marcelo A.; Laethem, Kristel Van; Katzenstein, David A.; Harrigan, P. Richard; Kantor, Rami; Shafer, Robert; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke

2016-01-01

Objective To clarify the role of novel mutations selected by treatment with efavirenz or nevirapine, and investigate the influence of HIV-1 subtype on nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (nNRTI) resistance pathways. Design By finding direct dependencies between treatment-selected mutations, the involvement of these mutations as minor or major resistance mutations against efavirenz, nevirapine, or coadministrated nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) is hypothesized. In addition, direct dependencies were investigated between treatment-selected mutations and polymorphisms, some of which are linked with subtype, and between NRTI and nNRTI resistance pathways. Methods Sequences from a large collaborative database of various subtypes were jointly analyzed to detect mutations selected by treatment. Using Bayesian network learning, direct dependencies were investigated between treatment-selected mutations, NRTI and nNRTI treatment history, and known NRTI resistance mutations. Results Several novel minor resistance mutations were found: 28K and 196R (for resistance against efavirenz), 101H and 138Q (nevirapine), and 31L (lamivudine). Robust interactions between NRTI mutations (65R, 74V, 75I/M, and 184V) and nNRTI resistance mutations (100I, 181C, 190E and 230L) may affect resistance development to particular treatment combinations. For example, an interaction between 65R and 181C predicts that the nevirapine and tenofovir and lamivudine/emtricitabine combination should be more prone to failure than efavirenz and tenofovir and lamivudine/emtricitabine. Conclusion Bayesian networks were helpful in untangling the selection of mutations by NRTI versus nNRTI treatment, and in discovering interactions between resistance mutations within and between these two classes of inhibitors. PMID:18832874

Modular analysis of the probabilistic genetic interaction network.

PubMed

Hou, Lin; Wang, Lin; Qian, Minping; Li, Dong; Tang, Chao; Zhu, Yunping; Deng, Minghua; Li, Fangting

2011-03-15

Epistatic Miniarray Profiles (EMAP) has enabled the mapping of large-scale genetic interaction networks; however, the quantitative information gained from EMAP cannot be fully exploited since the data are usually interpreted as a discrete network based on an arbitrary hard threshold. To address such limitations, we adopted a mixture modeling procedure to construct a probabilistic genetic interaction network and then implemented a Bayesian approach to identify densely interacting modules in the probabilistic network. Mixture modeling has been demonstrated as an effective soft-threshold technique of EMAP measures. The Bayesian approach was applied to an EMAP dataset studying the early secretory pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Twenty-seven modules were identified, and 14 of those were enriched by gold standard functional gene sets. We also conducted a detailed comparison with state-of-the-art algorithms, hierarchical cluster and Markov clustering. The experimental results show that the Bayesian approach outperforms others in efficiently recovering biologically significant modules.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Inferring metabolic networks using the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors.

PubMed

Peterson, Christine; Vannucci, Marina; Karakas, Cemal; Choi, William; Ma, Lihua; Maletić-Savatić, Mirjana

2013-10-01

Metabolic processes are essential for cellular function and survival. We are interested in inferring a metabolic network in activated microglia, a major neuroimmune cell in the brain responsible for the neuroinflammation associated with neurological diseases, based on a set of quantified metabolites. To achieve this, we apply the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors that incorporate known relationships between covariates. To encourage sparsity, the Bayesian graphical lasso places double exponential priors on the off-diagonal entries of the precision matrix. The Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso allows each double exponential prior to have a unique shrinkage parameter. These shrinkage parameters share a common gamma hyperprior. We extend this model to create an informative prior structure by formulating tailored hyperpriors on the shrinkage parameters. By choosing parameter values for each hyperprior that shift probability mass toward zero for nodes that are close together in a reference network, we encourage edges between covariates with known relationships. This approach can improve the reliability of network inference when the sample size is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. When applied to the data on activated microglia, the inferred network includes both known relationships and associations of potential interest for further investigation.

Inferring metabolic networks using the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors

PubMed Central

PETERSON, CHRISTINE; VANNUCCI, MARINA; KARAKAS, CEMAL; CHOI, WILLIAM; MA, LIHUA; MALETIĆ-SAVATIĆ, MIRJANA

2014-01-01

Metabolic processes are essential for cellular function and survival. We are interested in inferring a metabolic network in activated microglia, a major neuroimmune cell in the brain responsible for the neuroinflammation associated with neurological diseases, based on a set of quantified metabolites. To achieve this, we apply the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors that incorporate known relationships between covariates. To encourage sparsity, the Bayesian graphical lasso places double exponential priors on the off-diagonal entries of the precision matrix. The Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso allows each double exponential prior to have a unique shrinkage parameter. These shrinkage parameters share a common gamma hyperprior. We extend this model to create an informative prior structure by formulating tailored hyperpriors on the shrinkage parameters. By choosing parameter values for each hyperprior that shift probability mass toward zero for nodes that are close together in a reference network, we encourage edges between covariates with known relationships. This approach can improve the reliability of network inference when the sample size is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. When applied to the data on activated microglia, the inferred network includes both known relationships and associations of potential interest for further investigation. PMID:24533172

In Silico Syndrome Prediction for Coronary Artery Disease in Traditional Chinese Medicine

PubMed Central

Lu, Peng; Chen, Jianxin; Zhao, Huihui; Gao, Yibo; Luo, Liangtao; Zuo, Xiaohan; Shi, Qi; Yang, Yiping; Yi, Jianqiang; Wang, Wei

2012-01-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading causes of deaths in the world. The differentiation of syndrome (ZHENG) is the criterion of diagnosis and therapeutic in TCM. Therefore, syndrome prediction in silico can be improving the performance of treatment. In this paper, we present a Bayesian network framework to construct a high-confidence syndrome predictor based on the optimum subset, that is, collected by Support Vector Machine (SVM) feature selection. Syndrome of CAD can be divided into asthenia and sthenia syndromes. According to the hierarchical characteristics of syndrome, we firstly label every case three types of syndrome (asthenia, sthenia, or both) to solve several syndromes with some patients. On basis of the three syndromes' classes, we design SVM feature selection to achieve the optimum symptom subset and compare this subset with Markov blanket feature select using ROC. Using this subset, the six predictors of CAD's syndrome are constructed by the Bayesian network technique. We also design Naïve Bayes, C4.5 Logistic, Radial basis function (RBF) network compared with Bayesian network. In a conclusion, the Bayesian network method based on the optimum symptoms shows a practical method to predict six syndromes of CAD in TCM. PMID:22567030

Modelling the evolution of a bi-partite network Peer referral in interlocking directorates*

PubMed Central

Edling, Christofer

2010-01-01

A central part of relational ties between social actors are constituted by shared affiliations and events. The action of joint participation reinforces personal ties between social actors as well as mutually shared values and norms that in turn perpetuate the patterns of social action that define groups. Therefore the study of bipartite networks is central to social science. Furthermore, the dynamics of these processes suggests that bipartite networks should not be considered static structures but rather be studied over time. In order to model the evolution of bipartite networks empirically we introduce a class of models and a Bayesian inference scheme that extends previous stochastic actor-oriented models for unimodal graphs. Contemporary research on interlocking directorates provides an area of research in which it seems reasonable to apply the model. Specifically, we address the question of how tie formation, i.e. director recruitment, contributes to the structural properties of the interlocking directorate network. For boards of directors on the Stockholm stock exchange we propose that a prolific mechanism in tie formation is that of peer referral. The results indicate that such a mechanism is present, generating multiple interlocks between boards. PMID:24944435

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI

PubMed Central

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2017-01-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations. PMID:28845484

Sparse Bayesian Inference of White Matter Fiber Orientations from Compressed Multi-resolution Diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Pisharady, Pramod Kumar; Duarte-Carvajalino, Julio M; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N; Sapiro, Guillermo; Lenglet, Christophe

2015-10-01

The RubiX [1] algorithm combines high SNR characteristics of low resolution data with high spacial specificity of high resolution data, to extract microstructural tissue parameters from diffusion MRI. In this paper we focus on estimating crossing fiber orientations and introduce sparsity to the RubiX algorithm, making it suitable for reconstruction from compressed (under-sampled) data. We propose a sparse Bayesian algorithm for estimation of fiber orientations and volume fractions from compressed diffusion MRI. The data at high resolution is modeled using a parametric spherical deconvolution approach and represented using a dictionary created with the exponential decay components along different possible directions. Volume fractions of fibers along these orientations define the dictionary weights. The data at low resolution is modeled using a spatial partial volume representation. The proposed dictionary representation and sparsity priors consider the dependence between fiber orientations and the spatial redundancy in data representation. Our method exploits the sparsity of fiber orientations, therefore facilitating inference from under-sampled data. Experimental results show improved accuracy and decreased uncertainty in fiber orientation estimates. For under-sampled data, the proposed method is also shown to produce more robust estimates of fiber orientations.

Inferring Phylogenetic Networks Using PhyloNet.

PubMed

Wen, Dingqiao; Yu, Yun; Zhu, Jiafan; Nakhleh, Luay

2018-07-01

PhyloNet was released in 2008 as a software package for representing and analyzing phylogenetic networks. At the time of its release, the main functionalities in PhyloNet consisted of measures for comparing network topologies and a single heuristic for reconciling gene trees with a species tree. Since then, PhyloNet has grown significantly. The software package now includes a wide array of methods for inferring phylogenetic networks from data sets of unlinked loci while accounting for both reticulation (e.g., hybridization) and incomplete lineage sorting. In particular, PhyloNet now allows for maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference of phylogenetic networks from gene tree estimates. Furthermore, Bayesian inference directly from sequence data (sequence alignments or biallelic markers) is implemented. Maximum parsimony is based on an extension of the "minimizing deep coalescences" criterion to phylogenetic networks, whereas maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference are based on the multispecies network coalescent. All methods allow for multiple individuals per species. As computing the likelihood of a phylogenetic network is computationally hard, PhyloNet allows for evaluation and inference of networks using a pseudolikelihood measure. PhyloNet summarizes the results of the various analyzes and generates phylogenetic networks in the extended Newick format that is readily viewable by existing visualization software.

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis. PMID:22784571

Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.

Network inference using informative priors

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P.

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of “network inference” is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling. PMID:18799736

Network inference using informative priors.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P

2008-09-23

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of "network inference" is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling.

A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Explore Alternative Decisions for Sediment Control and water Storage Capacity at Lago Lucchetti, Puerto Rico

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was developed to characterize the effects of sediment accumulation on the water storage capacity of Lago Lucchetti (located in southwest Puerto Rico) and to forecast the life expectancy (usefulness) of the reservoir under different management scena...

Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis for Unordered Categorical Outcomes with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmid, Christopher H.; Trikalinos, Thomas A.; Olkin, Ingram

2014-01-01

We develop a Bayesian multinomial network meta-analysis model for unordered (nominal) categorical outcomes that allows for partially observed data in which exact event counts may not be known for each category. This model properly accounts for correlations of counts in mutually exclusive categories and enables proper comparison and ranking of…

Predicting forest insect flight activity: A Bayesian network approach

Treesearch

Stephen M. Pawson; Bruce G. Marcot; Owen G. Woodberry

2017-01-01

Daily flight activity patterns of forest insects are influenced by temporal and meteorological conditions. Temperature and time of day are frequently cited as key drivers of activity; however, complex interactions between multiple contributing factors have also been proposed. Here, we report individual Bayesian network models to assess the probability of flight...

Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management.

Treesearch

R.K. McCann; B.G. Marcot; R. Ellis

2006-01-01

We review the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) in natural resource management and ecology. We suggest that BBNs are useful tools for representing expert knowledge of a system, evaluating potential effects of alternative management decisions, and communicating to nonexperts about resource decision issues. BBNs can be used effectively to represent uncertainty in...

Assessment of Matrix Multiplication Learning with a Rule-Based Analytical Model--"A Bayesian Network Representation"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong

2016-01-01

This study explored an alternative assessment procedure to examine learning trajectories of matrix multiplication. It took rule-based analytical and cognitive task analysis methods specifically to break down operation rules for a given matrix multiplication. Based on the analysis results, a hierarchical Bayesian network, an assessment model,…

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

Potential Uses of Bayesian Networks as Tools for Synthesis of Systematic Reviews of Complex Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, G. B.; Mengersen, K.; Meader, N.

2014-01-01

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention.…

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Multi-Objective data analysis using Bayesian Inference for MagLIF experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Patrick; Glinksy, Michael; Evans, Matthew; Gom, Matth; Han, Stephanie; Harding, Eric; Slutz, Steve; Hahn, Kelly; Harvey-Thompson, Adam; Geissel, Matthias; Ampleford, David; Jennings, Christopher; Schmit, Paul; Smith, Ian; Schwarz, Jens; Peterson, Kyle; Jones, Brent; Rochau, Gregory; Sinars, Daniel

2017-10-01

The MagLIF concept has recently demonstrated Gbar pressures and confinement of charged fusion products at stagnation. We present a new analysis methodology that allows for integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power to determine the temperature, pressure, liner areal density, and mix fraction. A simplified hot-spot model is used with a Bayesian inference network to determine the most probable model parameters that describe the observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC., a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525.

High-resolution structure of viruses from random diffraction snapshots

PubMed Central

Hosseinizadeh, A.; Schwander, P.; Dashti, A.; Fung, R.; D'Souza, R. M.; Ourmazd, A.

2014-01-01

The advent of the X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) has made it possible to record diffraction snapshots of biological entities injected into the X-ray beam before the onset of radiation damage. Algorithmic means must then be used to determine the snapshot orientations and thence the three-dimensional structure of the object. Existing Bayesian approaches are limited in reconstruction resolution typically to 1/10 of the object diameter, with the computational expense increasing as the eighth power of the ratio of diameter to resolution. We present an approach capable of exploiting object symmetries to recover three-dimensional structure to high resolution, and thus reconstruct the structure of the satellite tobacco necrosis virus to atomic level. Our approach offers the highest reconstruction resolution for XFEL snapshots to date and provides a potentially powerful alternative route for analysis of data from crystalline and nano-crystalline objects. PMID:24914154

High-resolution structure of viruses from random diffraction snapshots.

PubMed

Hosseinizadeh, A; Schwander, P; Dashti, A; Fung, R; D'Souza, R M; Ourmazd, A

2014-07-17

The advent of the X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) has made it possible to record diffraction snapshots of biological entities injected into the X-ray beam before the onset of radiation damage. Algorithmic means must then be used to determine the snapshot orientations and thence the three-dimensional structure of the object. Existing Bayesian approaches are limited in reconstruction resolution typically to 1/10 of the object diameter, with the computational expense increasing as the eighth power of the ratio of diameter to resolution. We present an approach capable of exploiting object symmetries to recover three-dimensional structure to high resolution, and thus reconstruct the structure of the satellite tobacco necrosis virus to atomic level. Our approach offers the highest reconstruction resolution for XFEL snapshots to date and provides a potentially powerful alternative route for analysis of data from crystalline and nano-crystalline objects.

The Student-Customer Orientation Questionnaire (SCOQ): Application of Customer Metaphor to Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koris, Riina; Nokelainen, Petri

2015-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study Bayesian dependency modelling (BDM) to validate the model of educational experiences and the student-customer orientation questionnaire (SCOQ), and to identify the categories of educatonal experience in which students expect a higher educational institutions (HEI) to be student-customer oriented.…

Bayesian network modelling of upper gastrointestinal bleeding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisha, Nazziwa; Shohaimi, Shamarina; Adam, Mohd Bakri

2013-09-01

Bayesian networks are graphical probabilistic models that represent causal and other relationships between domain variables. In the context of medical decision making, these models have been explored to help in medical diagnosis and prognosis. In this paper, we discuss the Bayesian network formalism in building medical support systems and we learn a tree augmented naive Bayes Network (TAN) from gastrointestinal bleeding data. The accuracy of the TAN in classifying the source of gastrointestinal bleeding into upper or lower source is obtained. The TAN achieves a high classification accuracy of 86% and an area under curve of 92%. A sensitivity analysis of the model shows relatively high levels of entropy reduction for color of the stool, history of gastrointestinal bleeding, consistency and the ratio of blood urea nitrogen to creatinine. The TAN facilitates the identification of the source of GIB and requires further validation.

A Bayesian network approach to the database search problem in criminal proceedings

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The ‘database search problem’, that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method’s graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication. PMID:22849390

Capturing changes in flood risk with Bayesian approaches for flood damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Müller, Meike; Sieg, Tobias; Laudan, Jonas; Kienzler, Sarah; Weise, Laura; Merz, Bruno; Scherbaum, Frank

2016-04-01

Flood risk is a function of hazard as well as of exposure and vulnerability. All three components are under change over space and time and have to be considered for reliable damage estimations and risk analyses, since this is the basis for an efficient, adaptable risk management. Hitherto, models for estimating flood damage are comparatively simple and cannot sufficiently account for changing conditions. The Bayesian network approach allows for a multivariate modeling of complex systems without relying on expert knowledge about physical constraints. In a Bayesian network each model component is considered to be a random variable. The way of interactions between those variables can be learned from observations or be defined by expert knowledge. Even a combination of both is possible. Moreover, the probabilistic framework captures uncertainties related to the prediction and provides a probability distribution for the damage instead of a point estimate. The graphical representation of Bayesian networks helps to study the change of probabilities for changing circumstances and may thus simplify the communication between scientists and public authorities. In the framework of the DFG-Research Training Group "NatRiskChange" we aim to develop Bayesian networks for flood damage and vulnerability assessments of residential buildings and companies under changing conditions. A Bayesian network learned from data, collected over the last 15 years in flooded regions in the Elbe and Danube catchments (Germany), reveals the impact of many variables like building characteristics, precaution and warning situation on flood damage to residential buildings. While the handling of incomplete and hybrid (discrete mixed with continuous) data are the most challenging issues in the study on residential buildings, a similar study, that focuses on the vulnerability of small to medium sized companies, bears new challenges. Relying on a much smaller data set for the determination of the model parameters, overly complex models should be avoided. A so called Markov Blanket approach aims at the identification of the most relevant factors and constructs a Bayesian network based on those findings. With our approach we want to exploit a major advantage of Bayesian networks which is their ability to consider dependencies not only pairwise, but to capture the joint effects and interactions of driving forces. Hence, the flood damage network does not only show the impact of precaution on the building damage separately, but also reveals the mutual effects of precaution and the quality of warning for a variety of flood settings. Thus, it allows for a consideration of changing conditions and different courses of action and forms a novel and valuable tool for decision support. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training program GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at the University of Potsdam.

Benefits of an Object-oriented Database Representation for Controlled Medical Terminologies

PubMed Central

Gu, Huanying; Halper, Michael; Geller, James; Perl, Yehoshua

1999-01-01

Objective: Controlled medical terminologies (CMTs) have been recognized as important tools in a variety of medical informatics applications, ranging from patient-record systems to decision-support systems. Controlled medical terminologies are typically organized in semantic network structures consisting of tens to hundreds of thousands of concepts. This overwhelming size and complexity can be a serious barrier to their maintenance and widespread utilization. The authors propose the use of object-oriented databases to address the problems posed by the extensive scope and high complexity of most CMTs for maintenance personnel and general users alike. Design: The authors present a methodology that allows an existing CMT, modeled as a semantic network, to be represented as an equivalent object-oriented database. Such a representation is called an object-oriented health care terminology repository (OOHTR). Results: The major benefit of an OOHTR is its schema, which provides an important layer of structural abstraction. Using the high-level view of a CMT afforded by the schema, one can gain insight into the CMT's overarching organization and begin to better comprehend it. The authors' methodology is applied to the Medical Entities Dictionary (MED), a large CMT developed at Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center. Examples of how the OOHTR schema facilitated updating, correcting, and improving the design of the MED are presented. Conclusion: The OOHTR schema can serve as an important abstraction mechanism for enhancing comprehension of a large CMT, and thus promotes its usability. PMID:10428002

A Prior for Neural Networks utilizing Enclosing Spheres for Normalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

v. Toussaint, U.; Gori, S.; Dose, V.

2004-11-01

Neural Networks are famous for their advantageous flexibility for problems when there is insufficient knowledge to set up a proper model. On the other hand this flexibility can cause over-fitting and can hamper the generalization properties of neural networks. Many approaches to regularize NN have been suggested but most of them based on ad-hoc arguments. Employing the principle of transformation invariance we derive a general prior in accordance with the Bayesian probability theory for a class of feedforward networks. Optimal networks are determined by Bayesian model comparison verifying the applicability of this approach.

An object-oriented design for automated navigation of semantic networks inside a medical data dictionary.

PubMed

Ruan, W; Bürkle, T; Dudeck, J

2000-01-01

In this paper we present a data dictionary server for the automated navigation of information sources. The underlying knowledge is represented within a medical data dictionary. The mapping between medical terms and information sources is based on a semantic network. The key aspect of implementing the dictionary server is how to represent the semantic network in a way that is easier to navigate and to operate, i.e. how to abstract the semantic network and to represent it in memory for various operations. This paper describes an object-oriented design based on Java that represents the semantic network in terms of a group of objects. A node and its relationships to its neighbors are encapsulated in one object. Based on such a representation model, several operations have been implemented. They comprise the extraction of parts of the semantic network which can be reached from a given node as well as finding all paths between a start node and a predefined destination node. This solution is independent of any given layout of the semantic structure. Therefore the module, called Giessen Data Dictionary Server can act independent of a specific clinical information system. The dictionary server will be used to present clinical information, e.g. treatment guidelines or drug information sources to the clinician in an appropriate working context. The server is invoked from clinical documentation applications which contain an infobutton. Automated navigation will guide the user to all the information relevant to her/his topic, which is currently available inside our closed clinical network.

A neural network simulating human reach-grasp coordination by continuous updating of vector positioning commands.

PubMed

Ulloa, Antonio; Bullock, Daniel

2003-10-01

We developed a neural network model to simulate temporal coordination of human reaching and grasping under variable initial grip apertures and perturbations of object size and object location/orientation. The proposed model computes reach-grasp trajectories by continuously updating vector positioning commands. The model hypotheses are (1) hand/wrist transport, grip aperture, and hand orientation control modules are coupled by a gating signal that fosters synchronous completion of the three sub-goals. (2) Coupling from transport and orientation velocities to aperture control causes maximum grip apertures that scale with these velocities and exceed object size. (3) Part of the aperture trajectory is attributable to an aperture-reducing passive biomechanical effect that is stronger for larger apertures. (4) Discrepancies between internal representations of targets partially inhibit the gating signal, leading to movement time increases that compensate for perturbations. Simulations of the model replicate key features of human reach-grasp kinematics observed under three experimental protocols. Our results indicate that no precomputation of component movement times is necessary for online temporal coordination of the components of reaching and grasping.

Pruning Neural Networks with Distribution Estimation Algorithms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cantu-Paz, E

2003-01-15

This paper describes the application of four evolutionary algorithms to the pruning of neural networks used in classification problems. Besides of a simple genetic algorithm (GA), the paper considers three distribution estimation algorithms (DEAs): a compact GA, an extended compact GA, and the Bayesian Optimization Algorithm. The objective is to determine if the DEAs present advantages over the simple GA in terms of accuracy or speed in this problem. The experiments used a feed forward neural network trained with standard back propagation and public-domain and artificial data sets. The pruned networks seemed to have better or equal accuracy than themore » original fully-connected networks. Only in a few cases, pruning resulted in less accurate networks. We found few differences in the accuracy of the networks pruned by the four EAs, but found important differences in the execution time. The results suggest that a simple GA with a small population might be the best algorithm for pruning networks on the data sets we tested.« less

THREAT ANTICIPATION AND DECEPTIVE REASONING USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allgood, Glenn O; Olama, Mohammed M; Lake, Joe E

Recent events highlight the need for tools to anticipate threats posed by terrorists. Assessing these threats requires combining information from disparate data sources such as analytic models, simulations, historical data, sensor networks, and user judgments. These disparate data can be combined in a coherent, analytically defensible, and understandable manner using a Bayesian belief network (BBN). In this paper, we develop a BBN threat anticipatory model based on a deceptive reasoning algorithm using a network engineering process that treats the probability distributions of the BBN nodes within the broader context of the system development process.

Nursing Home Care Quality: Insights from a Bayesian Network Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodson, Justin; Jang, Wooseung; Rantz, Marilyn

2008-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research is twofold. The first purpose is to utilize a new methodology (Bayesian networks) for aggregating various quality indicators to measure the overall quality of care in nursing homes. The second is to provide new insight into the relationships that exist among various measures of quality and how such measures…

A General Structure for Legal Arguments about Evidence Using Bayesian Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Lagnado, David A.

2013-01-01

A Bayesian network (BN) is a graphical model of uncertainty that is especially well suited to legal arguments. It enables us to visualize and model dependencies between different hypotheses and pieces of evidence and to calculate the revised probability beliefs about all uncertain factors when any piece of new evidence is presented. Although BNs…

Implementation of an Adaptive Learning System Using a Bayesian Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yasuda, Keiji; Kawashima, Hiroyuki; Hata, Yoko; Kimura, Hiroaki

2015-01-01

An adaptive learning system is proposed that incorporates a Bayesian network to efficiently gauge learners' understanding at the course-unit level. Also, learners receive content that is adapted to their measured level of understanding. The system works on an iPad via the Edmodo platform. A field experiment using the system in an elementary school…

Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

2006-01-01

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently pu...

Are Student Evaluations of Teaching Effectiveness Valid for Measuring Student Learning Outcomes in Business Related Classes? A Neural Network and Bayesian Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.

2012-01-01

In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…

A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors-abstract

EPA Science Inventory

The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity but MoA classification in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity mode of action using a recently published dataset contain...

A Measure of Systems Engineering Effectiveness in Government Acquisition of Complex Information Systems: A Bayesian Belief Network-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doskey, Steven Craig

2014-01-01

This research presents an innovative means of gauging Systems Engineering effectiveness through a Systems Engineering Relative Effectiveness Index (SE REI) model. The SE REI model uses a Bayesian Belief Network to map causal relationships in government acquisitions of Complex Information Systems (CIS), enabling practitioners to identify and…

Railway obstacle detection algorithm using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Mingyang; Yang, Peng; Wei, Sen

2018-05-01

Aiming at the difficulty of detection of obstacle in outdoor railway scene, a data-oriented method based on neural network to obtain image objects is proposed. First, we mark objects of images(such as people, trains, animals) acquired on the Internet. and then use the residual learning units to build Fast R-CNN framework. Then, the neural network is trained to get the target image characteristics by using stochastic gradient descent algorithm. Finally, a well-trained model is used to identify an outdoor railway image. if it includes trains and other objects, it will issue an alert. Experiments show that the correct rate of warning reached 94.85%.

Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

Evaluating nonindigenous species management in a Bayesian networks derived relative risk framework for Padilla Bay, WA, USA.

PubMed

Herring, Carlie E; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2015-10-01

Many coastal regions are encountering issues with the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS). In this study, we conducted a regional risk assessment using a Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to analyze multiple vectors of NIS introductions to Padilla Bay, Washington, a National Estuarine Research Reserve. We had 3 objectives in this study. The 1st objective was to determine whether the BN-RRM could be used to calculate risk from NIS introductions for Padilla Bay. Our 2nd objective was to determine which regions and endpoints were at greatest risk from NIS introductions. Our 3rd objective was to incorporate a management option into the model and predict endpoint risk if it were to be implemented. Eradication can occur at different stages of NIS invasions, such as the elimination of these species before being introduced to the habitat or removal of the species after settlement. We incorporated the ballast water treatment management scenario into the model, observed the risk to the endpoints, and compared this risk with the initial risk estimates. The model results indicated that the southern portion of the bay was at greatest risk because of NIS. Changes in community composition, Dungeness crab, and eelgrass were the endpoints most at risk from NIS introductions. The currents node, which controls the exposure of NIS to the bay from the surrounding marine environment, was the parameter that had the greatest influence on risk. The ballast water management scenario displayed an approximate 1% reduction in risk in this Padilla Bay case study. The models we developed provide an adaptable template for decision makers interested in managing NIS in other coastal regions and large bodies of water. © 2015 SETAC.

Model-based analysis of pattern motion processing in mouse primary visual cortex

PubMed Central

Muir, Dylan R.; Roth, Morgane M.; Helmchen, Fritjof; Kampa, Björn M.

2015-01-01

Neurons in sensory areas of neocortex exhibit responses tuned to specific features of the environment. In visual cortex, information about features such as edges or textures with particular orientations must be integrated to recognize a visual scene or object. Connectivity studies in rodent cortex have revealed that neurons make specific connections within sub-networks sharing common input tuning. In principle, this sub-network architecture enables local cortical circuits to integrate sensory information. However, whether feature integration indeed occurs locally in rodent primary sensory areas has not been examined directly. We studied local integration of sensory features in primary visual cortex (V1) of the mouse by presenting drifting grating and plaid stimuli, while recording the activity of neuronal populations with two-photon calcium imaging. Using a Bayesian model-based analysis framework, we classified single-cell responses as being selective for either individual grating components or for moving plaid patterns. Rather than relying on trial-averaged responses, our model-based framework takes into account single-trial responses and can easily be extended to consider any number of arbitrary predictive models. Our analysis method was able to successfully classify significantly more responses than traditional partial correlation (PC) analysis, and provides a rigorous statistical framework to rank any number of models and reject poorly performing models. We also found a large proportion of cells that respond strongly to only one stimulus class. In addition, a quarter of selectively responding neurons had more complex responses that could not be explained by any simple integration model. Our results show that a broad range of pattern integration processes already take place at the level of V1. This diversity of integration is consistent with processing of visual inputs by local sub-networks within V1 that are tuned to combinations of sensory features. PMID:26300738

[Bayesian network as a tool to study health behaviors of students from selected schools of Suwalki, Bialystok and Grodno].

PubMed

Kuczyński, Jarosław; Kleszczewska, Ewa; Łogwiniuk, Katarzyna; Szpakow, Aleksander; Szpakow, Andrzej

2012-01-01

A research project targeting college students of the eastern region was carried for the second straight year. The main objective of the study was to analyze the relation between smoking, drinking alcohol and drug use and students attitude towards health beaviours. The study drew attention to aspects of the importance of family ties. In the academic year 2011/2012 in studies involving a total student 416 ie Suwalki -138 people, Bialystok 141 people and from Grodno 137 person. All surveys were carried out using a questionnaire PAV-10 - questionnaire consisting of questions single-and multiple-choice and specifications, using the same methodology for all virtual research teams. To establish a joint survey of the three universities online database system used LimeSurvey polls. Statistical analysis was performed in SPSS and Excel. In this work the Bayesian network was use to assess the health behaviours among students and to analyze the differences in responses between selected universities. The study showed that the problem of active substances exists for all the analyzed schools and should be the base for the preparation of "the recovery plan". Among men, it is clearly a more serious one, as indicated by the number of the students answers. especially disturbing are the answers to the questions concerning the frequency of alcohol consumption. It is interesting result was obtained using the Bayesian network approach: there is a close correlation between the absence of the mother and the weight the responder was giving to components such as: career, travel, their health, and the health of their loved ones. It was clearly demonstrated that students without a mother value the most the health (their own and of their loved ones).

Multi-dimensional classification of GABAergic interneurons with Bayesian network-modeled label uncertainty.

PubMed

Mihaljević, Bojan; Bielza, Concha; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier; Larrañaga, Pedro

2014-01-01

Interneuron classification is an important and long-debated topic in neuroscience. A recent study provided a data set of digitally reconstructed interneurons classified by 42 leading neuroscientists according to a pragmatic classification scheme composed of five categorical variables, namely, of the interneuron type and four features of axonal morphology. From this data set we now learned a model which can classify interneurons, on the basis of their axonal morphometric parameters, into these five descriptive variables simultaneously. Because of differences in opinion among the neuroscientists, especially regarding neuronal type, for many interneurons we lacked a unique, agreed-upon classification, which we could use to guide model learning. Instead, we guided model learning with a probability distribution over the neuronal type and the axonal features, obtained, for each interneuron, from the neuroscientists' classification choices. We conveniently encoded such probability distributions with Bayesian networks, calling them label Bayesian networks (LBNs), and developed a method to predict them. This method predicts an LBN by forming a probabilistic consensus among the LBNs of the interneurons most similar to the one being classified. We used 18 axonal morphometric parameters as predictor variables, 13 of which we introduce in this paper as quantitative counterparts to the categorical axonal features. We were able to accurately predict interneuronal LBNs. Furthermore, when extracting crisp (i.e., non-probabilistic) predictions from the predicted LBNs, our method outperformed related work on interneuron classification. Our results indicate that our method is adequate for multi-dimensional classification of interneurons with probabilistic labels. Moreover, the introduced morphometric parameters are good predictors of interneuron type and the four features of axonal morphology and thus may serve as objective counterparts to the subjective, categorical axonal features.

Functional mechanisms of probabilistic inference in feature- and space-based attentional systems.

PubMed

Dombert, Pascasie L; Kuhns, Anna; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2016-11-15

Humans flexibly attend to features or locations and these processes are influenced by the probability of sensory events. We combined computational modeling of response times with fMRI to compare the functional correlates of (re-)orienting, and the modulation by probabilistic inference in spatial and feature-based attention systems. Twenty-four volunteers performed two task versions with spatial or color cues. Percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to derive trial-wise estimates of probability-dependent attention, entering the fMRI analysis as parametric regressors. Attentional orienting activated a dorsal frontoparietal network in both tasks, without significant parametric modulation. Spatially invalid trials activated a bilateral frontoparietal network and the precuneus, while invalid feature trials activated the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Probability-dependent attention modulated activity in the precuneus, left posterior IPS, middle occipital gyrus, and right temporoparietal junction for spatial attention, and in the left anterior IPS for feature-based and spatial attention. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of the functional basis of attentional control. They suggest that probabilistic inference can distinctively affect each attentional subsystem, but that there is an overlap in the left IPS, which responds to both spatial and feature-based expectancy violations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of a Bayesian network to predict an elevated aldosterone-to-renin ratio.

PubMed

Ducher, Michel; Mounier-Véhier, Claire; Lantelme, Pierre; Vaisse, Bernard; Baguet, Jean-Philippe; Fauvel, Jean-Pierre

2015-05-01

Resistant hypertension is common, mainly idiopathic, but sometimes related to primary aldosteronism. Thus, most hypertension specialists recommend screening for primary aldosteronism. To optimize the selection of patients whose aldosterone-to-renin ratio (ARR) is elevated from simple clinical and biological characteristics. Data from consecutive patients referred between 1 June 2008 and 30 May 2009 were collected retrospectively from five French 'European excellence hypertension centres' institutional registers. Patients were included if they had at least one of: onset of hypertension before age 40 years, resistant hypertension, history of hypokalaemia, efficient treatment by spironolactone, and potassium supplementation. An ARR>32 ng/L and aldosterone>160 ng/L in patients treated without agents altering the renin-angiotensin system was considered as elevated. Bayesian network and stepwise logistic regression were used to predict an elevated ARR. Of 334 patients, 89 were excluded (31 for incomplete data, 32 for taking agents that alter the renin-angiotensin system and 26 for other reasons). Among 245 included patients, 110 had an elevated ARR. Sensitivity reached 100% or 63.3% using Bayesian network or logistic regression, respectively, and specificity reached 89.6% or 67.2%, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve obtained with the Bayesian network was significantly higher than that obtained by stepwise regression (0.93±0.02 vs. 0.70±0.03; P<0.001). In hypertension centres, Bayesian network efficiently detected patients with an elevated ARR. An external validation study is required before use in primary clinical settings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of dengue clinical diagnosis with and without NS1 antigen rapid test: Comparison between human and Bayesian network model decision.

PubMed

Sa-Ngamuang, Chaitawat; Haddawy, Peter; Luvira, Viravarn; Piyaphanee, Watcharapong; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Lawpoolsri, Saranath

2018-06-18

Differentiating dengue patients from other acute febrile illness patients is a great challenge among physicians. Several dengue diagnosis methods are recommended by WHO. The application of specific laboratory tests is still limited due to high cost, lack of equipment, and uncertain validity. Therefore, clinical diagnosis remains a common practice especially in resource limited settings. Bayesian networks have been shown to be a useful tool for diagnostic decision support. This study aimed to construct Bayesian network models using basic demographic, clinical, and laboratory profiles of acute febrile illness patients to diagnose dengue. Data of 397 acute undifferentiated febrile illness patients who visited the fever clinic of the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Thailand, were used for model construction and validation. The two best final models were selected: one with and one without NS1 rapid test result. The diagnostic accuracy of the models was compared with that of physicians on the same set of patients. The Bayesian network models provided good diagnostic accuracy of dengue infection, with ROC AUC of 0.80 and 0.75 for models with and without NS1 rapid test result, respectively. The models had approximately 80% specificity and 70% sensitivity, similar to the diagnostic accuracy of the hospital's fellows in infectious disease. Including information on NS1 rapid test improved the specificity, but reduced the sensitivity, both in model and physician diagnoses. The Bayesian network model developed in this study could be useful to assist physicians in diagnosing dengue, particularly in regions where experienced physicians and laboratory confirmation tests are limited.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Uncertainty aggregation and reduction in structure-material performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen; Mahadevan, Sankaran; Ao, Dan

2018-02-01

An uncertainty aggregation and reduction framework is presented for structure-material performance prediction. Different types of uncertainty sources, structural analysis model, and material performance prediction model are connected through a Bayesian network for systematic uncertainty aggregation analysis. To reduce the uncertainty in the computational structure-material performance prediction model, Bayesian updating using experimental observation data is investigated based on the Bayesian network. It is observed that the Bayesian updating results will have large error if the model cannot accurately represent the actual physics, and that this error will be propagated to the predicted performance distribution. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty reduction method by integrating Bayesian calibration with model validation adaptively. The observation domain of the quantity of interest is first discretized into multiple segments. An adaptive algorithm is then developed to perform model validation and Bayesian updating over these observation segments sequentially. Only information from observation segments where the model prediction is highly reliable is used for Bayesian updating; this is found to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of uncertainty reduction. A composite rotorcraft hub component fatigue life prediction model, which combines a finite element structural analysis model and a material damage model, is used to demonstrate the proposed method.

Continuous time Bayesian networks identify Prdm1 as a negative regulator of TH17 cell differentiation in humans

PubMed Central

Acerbi, Enzo; Viganò, Elena; Poidinger, Michael; Mortellaro, Alessandra; Zelante, Teresa; Stella, Fabio

2016-01-01

T helper 17 (TH17) cells represent a pivotal adaptive cell subset involved in multiple immune disorders in mammalian species. Deciphering the molecular interactions regulating TH17 cell differentiation is particularly critical for novel drug target discovery designed to control maladaptive inflammatory conditions. Using continuous time Bayesian networks over a time-course gene expression dataset, we inferred the global regulatory network controlling TH17 differentiation. From the network, we identified the Prdm1 gene encoding the B lymphocyte-induced maturation protein 1 as a crucial negative regulator of human TH17 cell differentiation. The results have been validated by perturbing Prdm1 expression on freshly isolated CD4+ naïve T cells: reduction of Prdm1 expression leads to augmentation of IL-17 release. These data unravel a possible novel target to control TH17 polarization in inflammatory disorders. Furthermore, this study represents the first in vitro validation of continuous time Bayesian networks as gene network reconstruction method and as hypothesis generation tool for wet-lab biological experiments. PMID:26976045

Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-20

solved by simply using the information provided by the scenario. Instead, additional knowledge is required from relevant fields that study these...resilience function by leveraging Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs), a probabilistic reasoning network framework[5],[6]. BKBs allow for inferencing...reasoning network framework based on Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). BKBs are central to our social resilience framework as they are used to

A Dynamic Bayesian Network Based Structural Learning towards Automated Handwritten Digit Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauplin, Olivier; Jiang, Jianmin

Pattern recognition using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) is currently a growing area of study. In this paper, we present DBN models trained for classification of handwritten digit characters. The structure of these models is partly inferred from the training data of each class of digit before performing parameter learning. Classification results are presented for the four described models.

A class Hierarchical, object-oriented approach to virtual memory management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russo, Vincent F.; Campbell, Roy H.; Johnston, Gary M.

1989-01-01

The Choices family of operating systems exploits class hierarchies and object-oriented programming to facilitate the construction of customized operating systems for shared memory and networked multiprocessors. The software is being used in the Tapestry laboratory to study the performance of algorithms, mechanisms, and policies for parallel systems. Described here are the architectural design and class hierarchy of the Choices virtual memory management system. The software and hardware mechanisms and policies of a virtual memory system implement a memory hierarchy that exploits the trade-off between response times and storage capacities. In Choices, the notion of a memory hierarchy is captured by abstract classes. Concrete subclasses of those abstractions implement a virtual address space, segmentation, paging, physical memory management, secondary storage, and remote (that is, networked) storage. Captured in the notion of a memory hierarchy are classes that represent memory objects. These classes provide a storage mechanism that contains encapsulated data and have methods to read or write the memory object. Each of these classes provides specializations to represent the memory hierarchy.

Static and transient performance prediction for CFB boilers using a Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Haiwen; Ni, Weidou

1997-06-01

A Bayesian-Gaussian Neural Network (BGNN) is put forward in this paper to predict the static and transient performance of Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boilers. The advantages of this network over Back-Propagation Neural Networks (BPNNs), easier determination of topology, simpler and time saving in training process as well as self-organizing ability, make this network more practical in on-line performance prediction for complicated processes. Simulation shows that this network is comparable to the BPNNs in predicting the performance of CFB boilers. Good and practical on-line performance predictions are essential for operation guide and model predictive control of CFB boilers, which are under research by the authors.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

PubMed

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect

PubMed Central

Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R.

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects. PMID:29760874

Spatiotemporal Bayesian networks for malaria prediction.

PubMed

Haddawy, Peter; Hasan, A H M Imrul; Kasantikul, Rangwan; Lawpoolsri, Saranath; Sa-Angchai, Patiwat; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Singhasivanon, Pratap

2018-01-01

Targeted intervention and resource allocation are essential for effective malaria control, particularly in remote areas, with predictive models providing important information for decision making. While a diversity of modeling technique have been used to create predictive models of malaria, no work has made use of Bayesian networks. Bayes nets are attractive due to their ability to represent uncertainty, model time lagged and nonlinear relations, and provide explanations. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks to model malaria, demonstrating the approach by creating village level models with weekly temporal resolution for Tha Song Yang district in northern Thailand. The networks are learned using data on cases and environmental covariates. Three types of networks are explored: networks for numeric prediction, networks for outbreak prediction, and networks that incorporate spatial autocorrelation. Evaluation of the numeric prediction network shows that the Bayes net has prediction accuracy in terms of mean absolute error of about 1.4 cases for 1 week prediction and 1.7 cases for 6 week prediction. The network for outbreak prediction has an ROC AUC above 0.9 for all prediction horizons. Comparison of prediction accuracy of both Bayes nets against several traditional modeling approaches shows the Bayes nets to outperform the other models for longer time horizon prediction of high incidence transmission. To model spread of malaria over space, we elaborate the models with links between the village networks. This results in some very large models which would be far too laborious to build by hand. So we represent the models as collections of probability logic rules and automatically generate the networks. Evaluation of the models shows that the autocorrelation links significantly improve prediction accuracy for some villages in regions of high incidence. We conclude that spatiotemporal Bayesian networks are a highly promising modeling alternative for prediction of malaria and other vector-borne diseases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian method for inferring transmission chains in a partially observed epidemic.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Ray, Jaideep

2008-10-01

We present a Bayesian approach for estimating transmission chains and rates in the Abakaliki smallpox epidemic of 1967. The epidemic affected 30 individuals in a community of 74; only the dates of appearance of symptoms were recorded. Our model assumes stochastic transmission of the infections over a social network. Distinct binomial random graphs model intra- and inter-compound social connections, while disease transmission over each link is treated as a Poisson process. Link probabilities and rate parameters are objects of inference. Dates of infection and recovery comprise the remaining unknowns. Distributions for smallpox incubation and recovery periods are obtained from historicalmore » data. Using Markov chain Monte Carlo, we explore the joint posterior distribution of the scalar parameters and provide an expected connectivity pattern for the social graph and infection pathway.« less

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior distributions in such approaches.

Using protein-protein interactions for refining gene networks estimated from microarray data by Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Nariai, N; Kim, S; Imoto, S; Miyano, S

2004-01-01

We propose a statistical method to estimate gene networks from DNA microarray data and protein-protein interactions. Because physical interactions between proteins or multiprotein complexes are likely to regulate biological processes, using only mRNA expression data is not sufficient for estimating a gene network accurately. Our method adds knowledge about protein-protein interactions to the estimation method of gene networks under a Bayesian statistical framework. In the estimated gene network, a protein complex is modeled as a virtual node based on principal component analysis. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method through the analysis of Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle data. The proposed method improves the accuracy of the estimated gene networks, and successfully identifies some biological facts.

Prediction of Sybil attack on WSN using Bayesian network and swarm intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muraleedharan, Rajani; Ye, Xiang; Osadciw, Lisa Ann

2008-04-01

Security in wireless sensor networks is typically sacrificed or kept minimal due to limited resources such as memory and battery power. Hence, the sensor nodes are prone to Denial-of-service attacks and detecting the threats is crucial in any application. In this paper, the Sybil attack is analyzed and a novel prediction method, combining Bayesian algorithm and Swarm Intelligence (SI) is proposed. Bayesian Networks (BN) is used in representing and reasoning problems, by modeling the elements of uncertainty. The decision from the BN is applied to SI forming an Hybrid Intelligence Scheme (HIS) to re-route the information and disconnecting the malicious nodes in future routes. A performance comparison based on the prediction using HIS vs. Ant System (AS) helps in prioritizing applications where decisions are time-critical.

A sub-space greedy search method for efficient Bayesian Network inference.

PubMed

Zhang, Qing; Cao, Yong; Li, Yong; Zhu, Yanming; Sun, Samuel S M; Guo, Dianjing

2011-09-01

Bayesian network (BN) has been successfully used to infer the regulatory relationships of genes from microarray dataset. However, one major limitation of BN approach is the computational cost because the calculation time grows more than exponentially with the dimension of the dataset. In this paper, we propose a sub-space greedy search method for efficient Bayesian Network inference. Particularly, this method limits the greedy search space by only selecting gene pairs with higher partial correlation coefficients. Using both synthetic and real data, we demonstrate that the proposed method achieved comparable results with standard greedy search method yet saved ∼50% of the computational time. We believe that sub-space search method can be widely used for efficient BN inference in systems biology. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Software Health Management with Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole; Schumann, JOhann

2011-01-01

Most modern aircraft as well as other complex machinery is equipped with diagnostics systems for its major subsystems. During operation, sensors provide important information about the subsystem (e.g., the engine) and that information is used to detect and diagnose faults. Most of these systems focus on the monitoring of a mechanical, hydraulic, or electromechanical subsystem of the vehicle or machinery. Only recently, health management systems that monitor software have been developed. In this paper, we will discuss our approach of using Bayesian networks for Software Health Management (SWHM). We will discuss SWHM requirements, which make advanced reasoning capabilities for the detection and diagnosis important. Then we will present our approach to using Bayesian networks for the construction of health models that dynamically monitor a software system and is capable of detecting and diagnosing faults.

Modelling the Flow Stress of Alloy 316L using a Multi-Layered Feed Forward Neural Network with Bayesian Regularization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abiriand Bhekisipho Twala, Olufunminiyi

2017-08-01

In this paper, a multilayer feedforward neural network with Bayesian regularization constitutive model is developed for alloy 316L during high strain rate and high temperature plastic deformation. The input variables are strain rate, temperature and strain while the output value is the flow stress of the material. The results show that the use of Bayesian regularized technique reduces the potential of overfitting and overtraining. The prediction quality of the model is thereby improved. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental measurements. The measurement data used for the network training and model comparison were taken from relevant literature. The developed model is robust as it can be generalized to deformation conditions slightly below or above the training dataset.

NEXUS - Resilient Intelligent Middleware

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaveh, N.; Hercock, R. Ghanea

Service-oriented computing, a composition of distributed-object computing, component-based, and Web-based concepts, is becoming the widespread choice for developing dynamic heterogeneous software assets available as services across a network. One of the major strengths of service-oriented technologies is the high abstraction layer and large granularity level at which software assets are viewed compared to traditional object-oriented technologies. Collaboration through encapsulated and separately defined service interfaces creates a service-oriented environment, whereby multiple services can be linked together through their interfaces to compose a functional system. This approach enables better integration of legacy and non-legacy services, via wrapper interfaces, and allows for service composition at a more abstract level especially in cases such as vertical market stacks. The heterogeneous nature of service-oriented technologies and the granularity of their software components makes them a suitable computing model in the pervasive domain.

Iterative Assessment of Statistically-Oriented and Standard Algorithms for Determining Muscle Onset with Intramuscular Electromyography.

PubMed

Tenan, Matthew S; Tweedell, Andrew J; Haynes, Courtney A

2017-12-01

The onset of muscle activity, as measured by electromyography (EMG), is a commonly applied metric in biomechanics. Intramuscular EMG is often used to examine deep musculature and there are currently no studies examining the effectiveness of algorithms for intramuscular EMG onset. The present study examines standard surface EMG onset algorithms (linear envelope, Teager-Kaiser Energy Operator, and sample entropy) and novel algorithms (time series mean-variance analysis, sequential/batch processing with parametric and nonparametric methods, and Bayesian changepoint analysis). Thirteen male and 5 female subjects had intramuscular EMG collected during isolated biceps brachii and vastus lateralis contractions, resulting in 103 trials. EMG onset was visually determined twice by 3 blinded reviewers. Since the reliability of visual onset was high (ICC (1,1) : 0.92), the mean of the 6 visual assessments was contrasted with the algorithmic approaches. Poorly performing algorithms were stepwise eliminated via (1) root mean square error analysis, (2) algorithm failure to identify onset/premature onset, (3) linear regression analysis, and (4) Bland-Altman plots. The top performing algorithms were all based on Bayesian changepoint analysis of rectified EMG and were statistically indistinguishable from visual analysis. Bayesian changepoint analysis has the potential to produce more reliable, accurate, and objective intramuscular EMG onset results than standard methodologies.

Immunotherapy in advanced melanoma: a network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Pyo, Jung-Soo; Kang, Guhyun

2017-05-01

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of various immunotherapeutic agents and chemotherapy for unresected or metastatic melanomas. We performed a network meta-analysis using a Bayesian statistical model to compare objective response rate (ORR) of various immunotherapies from 12 randomized controlled studies. The estimated ORRs of immunotherapy and chemotherapy were 0.224 and 0.108, respectively. The ORRs of immunotherapy in untreated and pretreated patients were 0.279 and 0.176, respectively. In network meta-analysis, the odds ratios for ORR of nivolumab (1 mg/kg)/ipilmumab (3 mg/kg), pembrolizumab 10 mg/kg and nivolumab 3 mg/kg were 8.54, 5.39 and 4.35, respectively, compared with chemotherapy alone. Our data showed that various immunotherapies had higher ORRs rather than chemotherapy alone.

Alerting, Orienting, and Executive Attention in Children with ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mullane, Jennifer C.; Corkum, Penny V.; Klein, Raymond M.; McLaughlin, Elizabeth N.; Lawrence, Michael A.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated the alerting, orienting, and executive attention abilities of children with ADHD and their typically developing (TD) peers using a modified version of the adult attention network test (ANT-I). Method: A total of 25 children with ADHD, Combined Type (ADHD-C, mean age = 9.20 years), 20 children with ADHD,…

Multi-Scale and Object-Oriented Analysis for Mountain Terrain Segmentation and Geomorphological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marston, B. K.; Bishop, M. P.; Shroder, J. F.

2009-12-01

Digital terrain analysis of mountain topography is widely utilized for mapping landforms, assessing the role of surface processes in landscape evolution, and estimating the spatial variation of erosion. Numerous geomorphometry techniques exist to characterize terrain surface parameters, although their utility to characterize the spatial hierarchical structure of the topography and permit an assessment of the erosion/tectonic impact on the landscape is very limited due to scale and data integration issues. To address this problem, we apply scale-dependent geomorphometric and object-oriented analyses to characterize the hierarchical spatial structure of mountain topography. Specifically, we utilized a high resolution digital elevation model to characterize complex topography in the Shimshal Valley in the Western Himalaya of Pakistan. To accomplish this, we generate terrain objects (geomorphological features and landform) including valley floors and walls, drainage basins, drainage network, ridge network, slope facets, and elemental forms based upon curvature. Object-oriented analysis was used to characterize object properties accounting for object size, shape, and morphometry. The spatial overlay and integration of terrain objects at various scales defines the nature of the hierarchical organization. Our results indicate that variations in the spatial complexity of the terrain hierarchical organization is related to the spatio-temporal influence of surface processes and landscape evolution dynamics. Terrain segmentation and the integration of multi-scale terrain information permits further assessment of process domains and erosion, tectonic impact potential, and natural hazard potential. We demonstrate this with landform mapping and geomorphological assessment examples.

PeerShield: determining control and resilience criticality of collaborative cyber assets in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2012-06-01

As attackers get more coordinated and advanced in cyber attacks, cyber assets are required to have much more resilience, control effectiveness, and collaboration in networks. Such a requirement makes it essential to take a comprehensive and objective approach for measuring the individual and relative performances of cyber security assets in network nodes. To this end, this paper presents four techniques as to how the relative importance of cyber assets can be measured more comprehensively and objectively by considering together the main variables of risk assessment (e.g., threats, vulnerabilities), multiple attributes (e.g., resilience, control, and influence), network connectivity and controllability among collaborative cyber assets in networks. In the first technique, a Bayesian network is used to include the random variables for control, recovery, and resilience attributes of nodes, in addition to the random variables of threats, vulnerabilities, and risk. The second technique shows how graph matching and coloring can be utilized to form collaborative pairs of nodes to shield together against threats and vulnerabilities. The third technique ranks the security assets of nodes by incorporating multiple weights and thresholds of attributes into a decision-making algorithm. In the fourth technique, the hierarchically well-separated tree is enhanced to first identify critical nodes of a network with respect to their attributes and network connectivity, and then selecting some nodes as driver nodes for network controllability.

Probabilistic mapping of descriptive health status responses onto health state utilities using Bayesian networks: an empirical analysis converting SF-12 into EQ-5D utility index in a national US sample.

PubMed

Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N

2011-05-01

As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.

Bayesian state space models for dynamic genetic network construction across multiple tissues.

PubMed

Liang, Yulan; Kelemen, Arpad

2016-08-01

Construction of gene-gene interaction networks and potential pathways is a challenging and important problem in genomic research for complex diseases while estimating the dynamic changes of the temporal correlations and non-stationarity are the keys in this process. In this paper, we develop dynamic state space models with hierarchical Bayesian settings to tackle this challenge for inferring the dynamic profiles and genetic networks associated with disease treatments. We treat both the stochastic transition matrix and the observation matrix time-variant and include temporal correlation structures in the covariance matrix estimations in the multivariate Bayesian state space models. The unevenly spaced short time courses with unseen time points are treated as hidden state variables. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches with various prior and hyper-prior models with Monte Carlo Markov Chain and Gibbs sampling algorithms are used to estimate the model parameters and the hidden state variables. We apply the proposed Hierarchical Bayesian state space models to multiple tissues (liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney) Affymetrix time course data sets following corticosteroid (CS) drug administration. Both simulation and real data analysis results show that the genomic changes over time and gene-gene interaction in response to CS treatment can be well captured by the proposed models. The proposed dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian state space modeling approaches could be expanded and applied to other large scale genomic data, such as next generation sequence (NGS) combined with real time and time varying electronic health record (EHR) for more comprehensive and robust systematic and network based analysis in order to transform big biomedical data into predictions and diagnostics for precision medicine and personalized healthcare with better decision making and patient outcomes.

Social Networks and Sexual Orientation Disparities in Tobacco and Alcohol Use

PubMed Central

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; McLaughlin, Katie A; Xuan, Ziming

2015-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine whether the composition of social networks contributes to sexual orientation disparities in substance use and misuse. Method: Data were obtained from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), a nationally representative cohort study of adolescents (N = 20,745). Wave 1 collected extensive information about the social networks of participants through peer nomination inventories. Results: Same- and both-sex–attracted youths had higher frequency/quantity of tobacco use in their peer networks than did opposite-sex–attracted youths, and both-sex–attracted youths had higher frequency/quantity of alcohol use and misuse in their peer networks than opposite-sex–attracted youths. Among same- and both-sex–attracted youths, greater frequency/quantity of tobacco use in one’s social network predicted greater use of cigarettes. In addition, greater frequency/quantity of peers’ drinking and drinking to intoxication predicted more alcohol use and alcohol misuse in the both-sex–attracted group. These social network factors mediated sexual orientation–related disparities in tobacco use for both- and same-sex–attracted youths. Moreover, sexual orientation disparities in alcohol misuse were mediated by social network characteristics for the same-sex and both-sex–attracted youths. Importantly, sexual minority adolescents were no more likely to have other sexual minorities in their social networks than were sexual majority youths, ruling out an alternative explanation for our results. Conclusions: These findings highlight the importance of social networks as correlates of substance use behaviors among sexual minority youths and as potential pathways explaining sexual orientation disparities in substance use outcomes. PMID:25486400

Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Kristin

2016-04-01

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables and incomplete observations. Further studies rise the challenge of relying on very small data sets. Since parameter estimates for complex models based on few observations are unreliable, it is necessary to focus on simplified, yet still meaningful models. A so called Markov Blanket approach is developed to identify the most relevant model components and to construct a simple Bayesian network based on those findings. Since the proceeding is completely data driven, it can easily be transferred to various applications in natural hazard domains. This study is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the research training programme GRK 2043/1 "NatRiskChange - Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" at Potsdam University.

Real-time physiological monitoring with distributed networks of sensors and object-oriented programming techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiesmann, William P.; Pranger, L. Alex; Bogucki, Mary S.

1998-05-01

Remote monitoring of physiologic data from individual high- risk workers distributed over time and space is a considerable challenge. This is often due to an inadequate capability to accurately integrate large amounts of data into usable information in real time. In this report, we have used the vertical and horizontal organization of the 'fireground' as a framework to design a distributed network of sensors. In this system, sensor output is linked through a hierarchical object oriented programing process to accurately interpret physiological data, incorporate these data into a synchronous model and relay processed data, trends and predictions to members of the fire incident command structure. There are several unique aspects to this approach. The first includes a process to account for variability in vital parameter values for each individual's normal physiologic response by including an adaptive network in each data process. This information is used by the model in an iterative process to baseline a 'normal' physiologic response to a given stress for each individual and to detect deviations that indicate dysfunction or a significant insult. The second unique capability of the system orders the information for each user including the subject, local company officers, medical personnel and the incident commanders. Information can be retrieved and used for training exercises and after action analysis. Finally this system can easily be adapted to existing communication and processing links along with incorporating the best parts of current models through the use of object oriented programming techniques. These modern software techniques are well suited to handling multiple data processes independently over time in a distributed network.

Asynchronous Data Retrieval from an Object-Oriented Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, Jonathan P.; Bic, Lubomir

We present an object-oriented semantic database model which, similar to other object-oriented systems, combines the virtues of four concepts: the functional data model, a property inheritance hierarchy, abstract data types and message-driven computation. The main emphasis is on the last of these four concepts. We describe generic procedures that permit queries to be processed in a purely message-driven manner. A database is represented as a network of nodes and directed arcs, in which each node is a logical processing element, capable of communicating with other nodes by exchanging messages. This eliminates the need for shared memory and for centralized control during query processing. Hence, the model is suitable for implementation on a multiprocessor computer architecture, consisting of large numbers of loosely coupled processing elements.

Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

PubMed

Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

2018-04-15

Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Realizations of highly heterogeneous collagen networks via stochastic reconstruction for micromechanical analysis of tumor cell invasion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nan, Hanqing; Liang, Long; Chen, Guo; Liu, Liyu; Liu, Ruchuan; Jiao, Yang

2018-03-01

Three-dimensional (3D) collective cell migration in a collagen-based extracellular matrix (ECM) is among one of the most significant topics in developmental biology, cancer progression, tissue regeneration, and immune response. Recent studies have suggested that collagen-fiber mediated force transmission in cellularized ECM plays an important role in stress homeostasis and regulation of collective cellular behaviors. Motivated by the recent in vitro observation that oriented collagen can significantly enhance the penetration of migrating breast cancer cells into dense Matrigel which mimics the intravasation process in vivo [Han et al. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 113, 11208 (2016), 10.1073/pnas.1610347113], we devise a procedure for generating realizations of highly heterogeneous 3D collagen networks with prescribed microstructural statistics via stochastic optimization. Specifically, a collagen network is represented via the graph (node-bond) model and the microstructural statistics considered include the cross-link (node) density, valence distribution, fiber (bond) length distribution, as well as fiber orientation distribution. An optimization problem is formulated in which the objective function is defined as the squared difference between a set of target microstructural statistics and the corresponding statistics for the simulated network. Simulated annealing is employed to solve the optimization problem by evolving an initial network via random perturbations to generate realizations of homogeneous networks with randomly oriented fibers, homogeneous networks with aligned fibers, heterogeneous networks with a continuous variation of fiber orientation along a prescribed direction, as well as a binary system containing a collagen region with aligned fibers and a dense Matrigel region with randomly oriented fibers. The generation and propagation of active forces in the simulated networks due to polarized contraction of an embedded ellipsoidal cell and a small group of cells are analyzed by considering a nonlinear fiber model incorporating strain hardening upon large stretching and buckling upon compression. Our analysis shows that oriented fibers can significantly enhance long-range force transmission in the network. Moreover, in the oriented-collagen-Matrigel system, the forces generated by a polarized cell in collagen can penetrate deeply into the Matrigel region. The stressed Matrigel fibers could provide contact guidance for the migrating cell cells, and thus enhance their penetration into Matrigel. This suggests a possible mechanism for the observed enhanced intravasation by oriented collagen.

Systemic antibiotics in the treatment of aggressive periodontitis. A systematic review and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rabelo, Cleverton Correa; Feres, Magda; Gonçalves, Cristiane; Figueiredo, Luciene C; Faveri, Marcelo; Tu, Yu-Kang; Chambrone, Leandro

2015-07-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of systemic antibiotic therapy on the treatment of aggressive periodontitis (AgP). This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA statement. The MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL databases were searched up to June 2014 for randomized clinical trials comparing the treatment of subjects with AgP with either scaling and root planing (SRP) alone or associated with systemic antibiotics. Bayesian network meta-analysis was prepared using the Bayesian random-effects hierarchical models and the outcomes reported at 6-month post-treatment. Out of 350 papers identified, 14 studies were eligible. Greater gain in clinical attachment (CA) (mean difference [MD]: 1.08 mm; p < 0.0001) and reduction in probing depth (PD) (MD: 1.05 mm; p < 0.00001) were observed for SRP + metronidazole (Mtz), and for SRP + Mtz + amoxicillin (Amx) (MD: 0.45 mm, MD: 0.53 mm, respectively; p < 0.00001) than SRP alone/placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis showed additional benefits in CA gain and PD reduction when SRP was associated with systemic antibiotics. SRP plus systemic antibiotics led to an additional clinical effect compared with SRP alone in the treatment of AgP. Of the antibiotic protocols available for inclusion into the Bayesian network meta-analysis, Mtz and Mtz/Amx provided to the most beneficial outcomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interpretation of the function of the striate cortex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Bernardette M.; Paplinski, Andrew P.

2000-04-01

Biological neural networks do not require retraining every time objects move in the visual field. Conventional computer neural networks do not share this shift-invariance. The brain compensates for movements in the head, body, eyes and objects by allowing the sensory data to be tracked across the visual field. The neurons in the striate cortex respond to objects moving across the field of vision as is seen in many experiments. It is proposed, that the neurons in the striate cortex allow continuous angle changes needed to compensate for changes in orientation of the head, eyes and the motion of objects in the field of vision. It is hypothesized that the neurons in the striate cortex form a system that allows for the translation, some rotation and scaling of objects and provides a continuity of objects as they move relative to other objects. The neurons in the striate cortex respond to features which are fundamental to sight, such as orientation of lines, direction of motion, color and contrast. The neurons that respond to these features are arranged on the cortex in a way that depends on the features they are responding to and on the area of the retina from which they receive their inputs.

Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

change scenarios. Arctic Expert elicitation Netica Bacon et al . 2002 Identify factors that might lead to a change in land use from farming to...tree) algorithms developed by Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (1988) and Jensen et al . (1990). Statistical inference is simply the process of...causality when constructing a Bayesian network (Kjaerulff and Madsen 2008, Darwiche 2009, Marcot et al . 2006). A knowledge representation approach is the

Characterizing species at risk. II: Using Bayesian belief networks as decision support tools to determine species conservation categories under the Northwest Forest Plan.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot; P.A. Hohenlohe; S. Morey; R. Holmes; R. Molina; M.C. Turley; M.H. Huff; J.A. Laurence

2006-01-01

We developed decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) that represented evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive...

Efficient Effects-Based Military Planning Final Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-13

using probabilistic infer- ence methods,” in Proc. 8th Annu. Conf. Uncertainty Artificial Intelli - gence (UAI), Stanford, CA. San Mateo, CA: Morgan...Imprecise Probabilities, the 24th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2008. 7. Yan Tong and Qiang Ji, Learning Bayesian Networks...Bayesian Networks using Constraints Cassio P. de Campos cassiopc@acm.org Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence Galleria 2, Manno 6928

A Comparative Study of Data Mining Techniques on Football Match Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosli, Che Mohamad Firdaus Che Mohd; Zainuri Saringat, Mohd; Razali, Nazim; Mustapha, Aida

2018-05-01

Data prediction have become a trend in today’s business or organization. This paper is set to predict match outcomes for association football from the perspective of football club managers and coaches. This paper explored different data mining techniques used for predicting the match outcomes where the target class is win, draw and lose. The main objective of this research is to find the most accurate data mining technique that fits the nature of football data. The techniques tested are Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Bayesian Network, and k-Nearest Neighbors. The results from the comparative experiments showed that Decision Trees produced the highest average prediction accuracy in the domain of football match prediction by 99.56%.

Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

2017-11-14

The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

Comparison Between Linear and Non-parametric Regression Models for Genome-Enabled Prediction in Wheat

PubMed Central

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-01-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models. PMID:23275882

Comparison between linear and non-parametric regression models for genome-enabled prediction in wheat.

PubMed

Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Gianola, Daniel; González-Camacho, Juan Manuel; Crossa, José; Manès, Yann; Dreisigacker, Susanne

2012-12-01

In genome-enabled prediction, parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric regression models have been used. This study assessed the predictive ability of linear and non-linear models using dense molecular markers. The linear models were linear on marker effects and included the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B. The non-linear models (this refers to non-linearity on markers) were reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). These statistical models were compared using 306 elite wheat lines from CIMMYT genotyped with 1717 diversity array technology (DArT) markers and two traits, days to heading (DTH) and grain yield (GY), measured in each of 12 environments. It was found that the three non-linear models had better overall prediction accuracy than the linear regression specification. Results showed a consistent superiority of RKHS and RBFNN over the Bayesian LASSO, Bayesian ridge regression, Bayes A, and Bayes B models.

CGBayesNets: Conditional Gaussian Bayesian Network Learning and Inference with Mixed Discrete and Continuous Data

PubMed Central

Weiss, Scott T.

2014-01-01

Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com. PMID:24922310

CGBayesNets: conditional Gaussian Bayesian network learning and inference with mixed discrete and continuous data.

PubMed

McGeachie, Michael J; Chang, Hsun-Hsien; Weiss, Scott T

2014-06-01

Bayesian Networks (BN) have been a popular predictive modeling formalism in bioinformatics, but their application in modern genomics has been slowed by an inability to cleanly handle domains with mixed discrete and continuous variables. Existing free BN software packages either discretize continuous variables, which can lead to information loss, or do not include inference routines, which makes prediction with the BN impossible. We present CGBayesNets, a BN package focused around prediction of a clinical phenotype from mixed discrete and continuous variables, which fills these gaps. CGBayesNets implements Bayesian likelihood and inference algorithms for the conditional Gaussian Bayesian network (CGBNs) formalism, one appropriate for predicting an outcome of interest from, e.g., multimodal genomic data. We provide four different network learning algorithms, each making a different tradeoff between computational cost and network likelihood. CGBayesNets provides a full suite of functions for model exploration and verification, including cross validation, bootstrapping, and AUC manipulation. We highlight several results obtained previously with CGBayesNets, including predictive models of wood properties from tree genomics, leukemia subtype classification from mixed genomic data, and robust prediction of intensive care unit mortality outcomes from metabolomic profiles. We also provide detailed example analysis on public metabolomic and gene expression datasets. CGBayesNets is implemented in MATLAB and available as MATLAB source code, under an Open Source license and anonymous download at http://www.cgbayesnets.com.

A Bayesian connectivity-based approach to constructing probabilistic gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiaobo; Wang, Xiaodong; Pal, Ranadip; Ivanov, Ivan; Bittner, Michael; Dougherty, Edward R

2004-11-22

We have hypothesized that the construction of transcriptional regulatory networks using a method that optimizes connectivity would lead to regulation consistent with biological expectations. A key expectation is that the hypothetical networks should produce a few, very strong attractors, highly similar to the original observations, mimicking biological state stability and determinism. Another central expectation is that, since it is expected that the biological control is distributed and mutually reinforcing, interpretation of the observations should lead to a very small number of connection schemes. We propose a fully Bayesian approach to constructing probabilistic gene regulatory networks (PGRNs) that emphasizes network topology. The method computes the possible parent sets of each gene, the corresponding predictors and the associated probabilities based on a nonlinear perceptron model, using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique, and an MCMC method is employed to search the network configurations to find those with the highest Bayesian scores to construct the PGRN. The Bayesian method has been used to construct a PGRN based on the observed behavior of a set of genes whose expression patterns vary across a set of melanoma samples exhibiting two very different phenotypes with respect to cell motility and invasiveness. Key biological features have been faithfully reflected in the model. Its steady-state distribution contains attractors that are either identical or very similar to the states observed in the data, and many of the attractors are singletons, which mimics the biological propensity to stably occupy a given state. Most interestingly, the connectivity rules for the most optimal generated networks constituting the PGRN are remarkably similar, as would be expected for a network operating on a distributed basis, with strong interactions between the components.

Understanding the Scalability of Bayesian Network Inference Using Clique Tree Growth Curves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.

2010-01-01

One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.

Probabilistic estimation of dune retreat on the Gold Coast, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmsten, Margaret L.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2014-01-01

Sand dunes are an important natural buffer between storm impacts and development backing the beach on the Gold Coast of Queensland, Australia. The ability to forecast dune erosion at a prediction horizon of days to a week would allow efficient and timely response to dune erosion in this highly populated area. Towards this goal, we modified an existing probabilistic dune erosion model for use on the Gold Coast. The original model was trained using observations of dune response from Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, USA (Plant and Stockdon 2012. Probabilistic prediction of barrier-island response to hurricanes, Journal of Geophysical Research, 117(F3), F03015). The model relates dune position change to pre-storm dune elevations, dune widths, and beach widths, along with storm surge and run-up using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian approach captures the uncertainty of inputs and predictions through the conditional probabilities between variables. Three versions of the barrier island response Bayesian network were tested for use on the Gold Coast. One network has the same structure as the original and was trained with the Santa Rosa Island data. The second network has a modified design and was trained using only pre- and post-storm data from 1988-2009 for the Gold Coast. The third version of the network has the same design as the second version of the network and was trained with the combined data from the Gold Coast and Santa Rosa Island. The two networks modified for use on the Gold Coast hindcast dune retreat with equal accuracy. Both networks explained 60% of the observed dune retreat variance, which is comparable to the skill observed by Plant and Stockdon (2012) in the initial Bayesian network application at Santa Rosa Island. The new networks improved predictions relative to application of the original network on the Gold Coast. Dune width was the most important morphologic variable in hindcasting dune retreat, while hydrodynamic variables, surge and run-up elevation, were also important

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

2014-02-01

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: from a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators.

PubMed

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V E; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

Missing value imputation: with application to handwriting data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhen; Srihari, Sargur N.

2015-01-01

Missing values make pattern analysis difficult, particularly with limited available data. In longitudinal research, missing values accumulate, thereby aggravating the problem. Here we consider how to deal with temporal data with missing values in handwriting analysis. In the task of studying development of individuality of handwriting, we encountered the fact that feature values are missing for several individuals at several time instances. Six algorithms, i.e., random imputation, mean imputation, most likely independent value imputation, and three methods based on Bayesian network (static Bayesian network, parameter EM, and structural EM), are compared with children's handwriting data. We evaluate the accuracy and robustness of the algorithms under different ratios of missing data and missing values, and useful conclusions are given. Specifically, static Bayesian network is used for our data which contain around 5% missing data to provide adequate accuracy and low computational cost.

Ubiquitous virtual private network: a solution for WSN seamless integration.

PubMed

Villa, David; Moya, Francisco; Villanueva, Félix Jesús; Aceña, Óscar; López, Juan Carlos

2014-01-06

Sensor networks are becoming an essential part of ubiquitous systems and applications. However, there are no well-defined protocols or mechanisms to access the sensor network from the enterprise information system. We consider this issue as a heterogeneous network interconnection problem, and as a result, the same concepts may be applied. Specifically, we propose the use of object-oriented middlewares to provide a virtual private network in which all involved elements (sensor nodes or computer applications) will be able to communicate as if all of them were in a single and uniform network.

High-throughput Bayesian Network Learning using Heterogeneous Multicore Computers

PubMed Central

Linderman, Michael D.; Athalye, Vivek; Meng, Teresa H.; Asadi, Narges Bani; Bruggner, Robert; Nolan, Garry P.

2017-01-01

Aberrant intracellular signaling plays an important role in many diseases. The causal structure of signal transduction networks can be modeled as Bayesian Networks (BNs), and computationally learned from experimental data. However, learning the structure of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an NP-hard problem that, even with fast heuristics, is too time consuming for large, clinically important networks (20–50 nodes). In this paper, we present a novel graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated implementation of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain-based algorithm for learning BNs that is up to 7.5-fold faster than current general-purpose processor (GPP)-based implementations. The GPU-based implementation is just one of several implementations within the larger application, each optimized for a different input or machine configuration. We describe the methodology we use to build an extensible application, assembled from these variants, that can target a broad range of heterogeneous systems, e.g., GPUs, multicore GPPs. Specifically we show how we use the Merge programming model to efficiently integrate, test and intelligently select among the different potential implementations. PMID:28819655

Guest Editor's introduction: Selected papers from the 4th USENIX Conference on Object-Oriented Technologies and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sventek, Joe

1998-12-01

Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, 1501 Page Mill Road, Palo Alto, CA 94304, USA Introduction The USENIX Conference on Object-Oriented Technologies and Systems (COOTS) is held annually in the late spring. The conference evolved from a set of C++ workshops that were held under the auspices of USENIX, the first of which met in 1989. Given the growing diverse interest in object-oriented technologies, the C++ focus of the workshop eventually became too narrow, with the result that the scope was widened in 1995 to include object-oriented technologies and systems. COOTS is intended to showcase advanced R&D efforts in object-oriented technologies and software systems. The conference emphasizes experimental research and experience gained by using object-oriented techniques and languages to build complex software systems that meet real-world needs. COOTS solicits papers in the following general areas: application of, and experiences with, object-oriented technologies in particular domains (e.g. financial, medical, telecommunication); the architecture and implementation of distributed object systems (e.g. CORBA, DCOM, RMI); object-oriented programming and specification languages; object-oriented design and analysis. The 4th meeting of COOTS was held 27 - 30 April 1998 at the El Dorado Hotel, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA. Several tutorials were given. The technical program proper consisted of a single track of six sessions, with three paper presentations per session. A keynote address and a provocative panel session rounded out the technical program. The program committee reviewed 56 papers, selecting the best 18 for presentation in the technical sessions. While we solicit papers across the spectrum of applications of object-oriented technologies, this year there was a predominance of distributed, object-oriented papers. The accepted papers reflected this asymmetry, with 15 papers on distributed objects and 3 papers on object-oriented languages. The papers in this special issue are the six best distributed object papers (in the opinion of the program committee). They represent the diversity of research in this particular area, and should give the reader a good idea of the types of papers presented at COOTS as well as the calibre of the work so presented. The papers The paper by Jain, Widoff and Schmidt explores the suitability of Java for writing performance-sensitive distributed applications. Despite the popularity of Java, there are many concerns about its efficiency; in particular, networking and computation performance are key concerns when considering the use of Java to develop performance-sensitive distributed applications. This paper makes three contributions to the study of Java for these applications: it describes an architecture using Java and the Web to develop MedJava, which is a distributed electronic medical imaging system with stringent networking and computation requirements; it presents benchmarks of MedJava image processing and compares the results to the performance of xv, which is an equivalent image processing application written in C; it presents performance benchmarks using Java as a transport interface to exchange large medical images over high-speed ATM networks. The paper by Little and Shrivastava covers the integration of several important topics: transactions, distributed systems, Java, the Internet and security. The usefulness of this paper lies in the synthesis of an effective solution applying work in different areas of computing to the Java environment. Securing applications constructed from distributed objects is important if these applications are to be used in mission-critical situations. Delegation is one aspect of distributed system security that is necessary for such applications. The paper by Nagaratnam and Lea describes a secure delegation model for Java-based, distributed object environments. The paper by Frølund and Koistinen addresses the topical issue of providing a common way for describing Quality-of-Service (QoS) features in distributed, object-oriented systems. They present a general QoS language, QML, that can be used to capture QoS properties as part of a design. They also show how to extend UML to support QML concepts. The paper by Szymaszek, Uszok and Zielinski discusses the important issue of efficient implementation and usage of fine-grained objects in CORBA-based applications. Fine-grained objects can have serious ramifications on overall application performance and scalability, and the paper suggests that such objects should not be treated as first-class CORBA objects, proposing instead the use of collections and smart proxies for efficient implementation. The paper by Milojicic, LaForge and Chauhan describes a mobile objects and agents infrastructure. Their particular research has focused on communication support across agent migration and extensive resource control. The paper also discusses issues regarding interoperation between agent systems. Acknowledgments The editor wishes to thank all of the authors, reviewers and publishers. Without their excellent work, and the contribution of their valuable time, this special issue would not have been possible.

Community orientation in hospitals: an institutional and resource dependence perspective.

PubMed Central

Proenca, E J; Rosko, M D; Zinn, J S

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To conceptualize community orientation-defined as the generation, dissemination, and use of community health-need intelligence-as a strategic response to environmental pressures, and to test a theoretically justified model of the predictors of community orientation in hospitals. DATA SOURCES: The analysis used data for 4,578 hospitals obtained from the 1994 and 1995 American Hospital Association (AHA) Annual Survey and the 1994 Medicare Hospital Cost Report data sets. Market-level data came from the Area Resource File. STUDY DESIGN: Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the effects of hospital size, dependence on managed care, ownership, network, system and alliance memberships, and level of diffusion of community-orientation practices in the area on the degree of community orientation in hospitals. The model, based on Oliver's (1991) framework of organizational responsiveness to environmental pressures, controlled for the effects of industry concentration and lagged profitability. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Degree of community orientation is significantly related to hospital size; ownership; dependence on managed care; and membership in a network, system, or alliance. It is also significantly related to the diffusion of community-orientation practices among other area hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Degree of community orientation is influenced by the nature of environmental pressures and by hospital interests. It is higher in hospitals that are large, nonprofit, or members of a network, system, or alliance; in hospitals that are more dependent on managed care; and in hospitals that operate in areas with higher diffusion of community-orientation activities. PMID:11130801

Revealing the ISO/IEC 9126-1 Clique Tree for COTS Software Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry

2007-01-01

Previous research has shown that acyclic dependency models, if they exist, can be extracted from software quality standards and that these models can be used to assess software safety and product quality. In the case of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, the extracted dependency model can be used in a probabilistic Bayesian network context for COTS software evaluation. Furthermore, while experts typically employ Bayesian networks to encode domain knowledge, secondary structures (clique trees) from Bayesian network graphs can be used to determine the probabilistic distribution of any software variable (attribute) using any clique that contains that variable. Secondary structures, therefore, provide insight into the fundamental nature of graphical networks. This paper will apply secondary structure calculations to reveal the clique tree of the acyclic dependency model extracted from the ISO/IEC 9126-1 software quality standard. Suggestions will be provided to describe how the clique tree may be exploited to aid efficient transformation of an evaluation model.

A sparse structure learning algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian Network identification from high-dimensional data.

PubMed

Huang, Shuai; Li, Jing; Ye, Jieping; Fleisher, Adam; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Teresa; Reiman, Eric

2013-06-01

Structure learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an important topic in machine learning. Driven by modern applications in genetics and brain sciences, accurate and efficient learning of large-scale BN structures from high-dimensional data becomes a challenging problem. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Sparse Bayesian Network (SBN) structure learning algorithm that employs a novel formulation involving one L1-norm penalty term to impose sparsity and another penalty term to ensure that the learned BN is a Directed Acyclic Graph--a required property of BNs. Through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on 11 moderate and large benchmark networks with various sample sizes, we show that SBN leads to improved learning accuracy, scalability, and efficiency as compared with 10 existing popular BN learning algorithms. We apply SBN to a real-world application of brain connectivity modeling for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and reveal findings that could lead to advancements in AD research.

A Sparse Structure Learning Algorithm for Gaussian Bayesian Network Identification from High-Dimensional Data

PubMed Central

Huang, Shuai; Li, Jing; Ye, Jieping; Fleisher, Adam; Chen, Kewei; Wu, Teresa; Reiman, Eric

2014-01-01

Structure learning of Bayesian Networks (BNs) is an important topic in machine learning. Driven by modern applications in genetics and brain sciences, accurate and efficient learning of large-scale BN structures from high-dimensional data becomes a challenging problem. To tackle this challenge, we propose a Sparse Bayesian Network (SBN) structure learning algorithm that employs a novel formulation involving one L1-norm penalty term to impose sparsity and another penalty term to ensure that the learned BN is a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)—a required property of BNs. Through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on 11 moderate and large benchmark networks with various sample sizes, we show that SBN leads to improved learning accuracy, scalability, and efficiency as compared with 10 existing popular BN learning algorithms. We apply SBN to a real-world application of brain connectivity modeling for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and reveal findings that could lead to advancements in AD research. PMID:22665720

Relationships between probabilistic Boolean networks and dynamic Bayesian networks as models of gene regulatory networks

PubMed Central

Lähdesmäki, Harri; Hautaniemi, Sampsa; Shmulevich, Ilya; Yli-Harja, Olli

2006-01-01

A significant amount of attention has recently been focused on modeling of gene regulatory networks. Two frequently used large-scale modeling frameworks are Bayesian networks (BNs) and Boolean networks, the latter one being a special case of its recent stochastic extension, probabilistic Boolean networks (PBNs). PBN is a promising model class that generalizes the standard rule-based interactions of Boolean networks into the stochastic setting. Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) is a general and versatile model class that is able to represent complex temporal stochastic processes and has also been proposed as a model for gene regulatory systems. In this paper, we concentrate on these two model classes and demonstrate that PBNs and a certain subclass of DBNs can represent the same joint probability distribution over their common variables. The major benefit of introducing the relationships between the models is that it opens up the possibility of applying the standard tools of DBNs to PBNs and vice versa. Hence, the standard learning tools of DBNs can be applied in the context of PBNs, and the inference methods give a natural way of handling the missing values in PBNs which are often present in gene expression measurements. Conversely, the tools for controlling the stationary behavior of the networks, tools for projecting networks onto sub-networks, and efficient learning schemes can be used for DBNs. In other words, the introduced relationships between the models extend the collection of analysis tools for both model classes. PMID:17415411

Constructing Robust Cooperative Networks using a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuai; Liu, Jing

2017-01-01

The design and construction of network structures oriented towards different applications has attracted much attention recently. The existing studies indicated that structural heterogeneity plays different roles in promoting cooperation and robustness. Compared with rewiring a predefined network, it is more flexible and practical to construct new networks that satisfy the desired properties. Therefore, in this paper, we study a method for constructing robust cooperative networks where the only constraint is that the number of nodes and links is predefined. We model this network construction problem as a multi-objective optimization problem and propose a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, named MOEA-Netrc, to generate the desired networks from arbitrary initializations. The performance of MOEA-Netrc is validated on several synthetic and real-world networks. The results show that MOEA-Netrc can construct balanced candidates and is insensitive to the initializations. MOEA-Netrc can find the Pareto fronts for networks with different levels of cooperation and robustness. In addition, further investigation of the robustness of the constructed networks revealed the impact on other aspects of robustness during the construction process. PMID:28134314

Supervised Detection of Anomalous Light Curves in Massive Astronomical Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos; Kim, Dae-Won

2014-09-01

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nun, Isadora; Pichara, Karim; Protopapas, Pavlos

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each ofmore » the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.« less

A Bayesian network model to assess the public health risk associated with wet weather sewer overflows discharging into waterways.

PubMed

Goulding, R; Jayasuriya, N; Horan, E

2012-10-15

Overflows from sanitary sewers during wet weather, which occur when the hydraulic capacity of the sewer system is exceeded, are considered a potential threat to the ecological and public health of the waterways which receive these overflows. As a result, water retailers in Australia and internationally commit significant resources to manage and abate sewer overflows. However, whilst some studies have contributed to an increased understanding of the impacts and risks associated with these events, they are relatively few in number and there still is a general lack of knowledge in this area. A Bayesian network model to assess the public health risk associated with wet weather sewer overflows is presented in this paper. The Bayesian network approach is shown to provide significant benefits in the assessment of public health risks associated with wet weather sewer overflows. In particular, the ability for the model to account for the uncertainty inherent in sewer overflow events and subsequent impacts through the use of probabilities is a valuable function. In addition, the paper highlights the benefits of the probabilistic inference function of the Bayesian network in prioritising management options to minimise public health risks associated with sewer overflows. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Goal-oriented Site Characterization in Hydrogeological Applications: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.

2011-12-01

In this study, we address the importance of goal-oriented site characterization. Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in hydrogeological applications, information needs of modeling, prediction and decision support should be satisfied with efficient and rational field campaigns. In this work, we provide an overview of an optimal sampling design framework based on Bayesian decision theory, statistical parameter inference and Bayesian model averaging. It optimizes the field sampling campaign around decisions on environmental performance metrics (e.g., risk, arrival times, etc.) while accounting for parametric and model uncertainty in the geostatistical characterization, in forcing terms, and measurement error. The appealing aspects of the framework lie on its goal-oriented character and that it is directly linked to the confidence in a specified decision. We illustrate how these concepts could be applied in a human health risk problem where uncertainty from both hydrogeological and health parameters are accounted.

The automated ground network system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Miles T.; Militch, Peter N.

1993-01-01

The primary goal of the Automated Ground Network System (AGNS) project is to reduce Ground Network (GN) station life-cycle costs. To accomplish this goal, the AGNS project will employ an object-oriented approach to develop a new infrastructure that will permit continuous application of new technologies and methodologies to the Ground Network's class of problems. The AGNS project is a Total Quality (TQ) project. Through use of an open collaborative development environment, developers and users will have equal input into the end-to-end design and development process. This will permit direct user input and feedback and will enable rapid prototyping for requirements clarification. This paper describes the AGNS objectives, operations concept, and proposed design.

Computational Approaches to Spatial Orientation: From Transfer Functions to Dynamic Bayesian Inference

PubMed Central

MacNeilage, Paul R.; Ganesan, Narayan; Angelaki, Dora E.

2008-01-01

Spatial orientation is the sense of body orientation and self-motion relative to the stationary environment, fundamental to normal waking behavior and control of everyday motor actions including eye movements, postural control, and locomotion. The brain achieves spatial orientation by integrating visual, vestibular, and somatosensory signals. Over the past years, considerable progress has been made toward understanding how these signals are processed by the brain using multiple computational approaches that include frequency domain analysis, the concept of internal models, observer theory, Bayesian theory, and Kalman filtering. Here we put these approaches in context by examining the specific questions that can be addressed by each technique and some of the scientific insights that have resulted. We conclude with a recent application of particle filtering, a probabilistic simulation technique that aims to generate the most likely state estimates by incorporating internal models of sensor dynamics and physical laws and noise associated with sensory processing as well as prior knowledge or experience. In this framework, priors for low angular velocity and linear acceleration can explain the phenomena of velocity storage and frequency segregation, both of which have been modeled previously using arbitrary low-pass filtering. How Kalman and particle filters may be implemented by the brain is an emerging field. Unlike past neurophysiological research that has aimed to characterize mean responses of single neurons, investigations of dynamic Bayesian inference should attempt to characterize population activities that constitute probabilistic representations of sensory and prior information. PMID:18842952

Chain-Based Communication in Cylindrical Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Javaid, Nadeem; Jafri, Mohsin Raza; Khan, Zahoor Ali; Alrajeh, Nabil; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios

2015-01-01

Appropriate network design is very significant for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs). Application-oriented UWSNs are planned to achieve certain objectives. Therefore, there is always a demand for efficient data routing schemes, which can fulfill certain requirements of application-oriented UWSNs. These networks can be of any shape, i.e., rectangular, cylindrical or square. In this paper, we propose chain-based routing schemes for application-oriented cylindrical networks and also formulate mathematical models to find a global optimum path for data transmission. In the first scheme, we devise four interconnected chains of sensor nodes to perform data communication. In the second scheme, we propose routing scheme in which two chains of sensor nodes are interconnected, whereas in third scheme single-chain based routing is done in cylindrical networks. After finding local optimum paths in separate chains, we find global optimum paths through their interconnection. Moreover, we develop a computational model for the analysis of end-to-end delay. We compare the performance of the above three proposed schemes with that of Power Efficient Gathering System in Sensor Information Systems (PEGASIS) and Congestion adjusted PEGASIS (C-PEGASIS). Simulation results show that our proposed 4-chain based scheme performs better than the other selected schemes in terms of network lifetime, end-to-end delay, path loss, transmission loss, and packet sending rate. PMID:25658394

Service oriented network architecture for control and management of home appliances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayakawa, Hiroshi; Koita, Takahiro; Sato, Kenya

2005-12-01

Recent advances in multimedia network systems and mechatronics have led to the development of a new generation of applications that associate the use of various multimedia objects with the behavior of multiple robotic actors. The connection of audio and video devices through high speed multimedia networks is expected to make the system more convenient to use. For example, many home appliances, such as a video camera, a display monitor, a video recorder, an audio system and so on, are being equipped with a communication interface in the near future. Recently some platforms (i.e. UPnP1, HAVi2 and so on) are proposed for constructing home networks; however, there are some issues to be solved to realize various services by connecting different equipment via the pervasive peer-to-peer network. UPnP offers network connectivity of PCs of intelligent home appliances, practically, which means to require a PC in the network to control other devices. Meanwhile, HAVi has been developed for intelligent AV equipments with sophisticated functions using high CPU power and large memory. Considering the targets of home alliances are embedded systems, this situation raises issues of software and hardware complexity, cost, power consumption and so on. In this study, we have proposed and developed the service oriented network architecture for control and management of home appliances, named SONICA (Service Oriented Network Interoperability for Component Adaptation), to address these issues described before.

Network-Oriented Approach to Distributed Generation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochukov, O.; Mutule, A.

2017-06-01

The main objective of the paper is to present an innovative complex approach to distributed generation planning and show the advantages over existing methods. The approach will be most suitable for DNOs and authorities and has specific calculation targets to support the decision-making process. The method can be used for complex distribution networks with different arrangement and legal base.

The middleware architecture supports heterogeneous network systems for module-based personal robot system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choo, Seongho; Li, Vitaly; Choi, Dong Hee; Jung, Gi Deck; Park, Hong Seong; Ryuh, Youngsun

2005-12-01

On developing the personal robot system presently, the internal architecture is every module those occupy separated functions are connected through heterogeneous network system. This module-based architecture supports specialization and division of labor at not only designing but also implementation, as an effect of this architecture, it can reduce developing times and costs for modules. Furthermore, because every module is connected among other modules through network systems, we can get easy integrations and synergy effect to apply advanced mutual functions by co-working some modules. In this architecture, one of the most important technologies is the network middleware that takes charge communications among each modules connected through heterogeneous networks systems. The network middleware acts as the human nerve system inside of personal robot system; it relays, transmits, and translates information appropriately between modules that are similar to human organizations. The network middleware supports various hardware platform, heterogeneous network systems (Ethernet, Wireless LAN, USB, IEEE 1394, CAN, CDMA-SMS, RS-232C). This paper discussed some mechanisms about our network middleware to intercommunication and routing among modules, methods for real-time data communication and fault-tolerant network service. There have designed and implemented a layered network middleware scheme, distributed routing management, network monitoring/notification technology on heterogeneous networks for these goals. The main theme is how to make routing information in our network middleware. Additionally, with this routing information table, we appended some features. Now we are designing, making a new version network middleware (we call 'OO M/W') that can support object-oriented operation, also are updating program sources itself for object-oriented architecture. It is lighter, faster, and can support more operation systems and heterogeneous network systems, but other general purposed middlewares like CORBA, UPnP, etc. can support only one network protocol or operating system.

Incorporating networks in a probabilistic graphical model to find drivers for complex human diseases.

PubMed

Mezlini, Aziz M; Goldenberg, Anna

2017-10-01

Discovering genetic mechanisms driving complex diseases is a hard problem. Existing methods often lack power to identify the set of responsible genes. Protein-protein interaction networks have been shown to boost power when detecting gene-disease associations. We introduce a Bayesian framework, Conflux, to find disease associated genes from exome sequencing data using networks as a prior. There are two main advantages to using networks within a probabilistic graphical model. First, networks are noisy and incomplete, a substantial impediment to gene discovery. Incorporating networks into the structure of a probabilistic models for gene inference has less impact on the solution than relying on the noisy network structure directly. Second, using a Bayesian framework we can keep track of the uncertainty of each gene being associated with the phenotype rather than returning a fixed list of genes. We first show that using networks clearly improves gene detection compared to individual gene testing. We then show consistently improved performance of Conflux compared to the state-of-the-art diffusion network-based method Hotnet2 and a variety of other network and variant aggregation methods, using randomly generated and literature-reported gene sets. We test Hotnet2 and Conflux on several network configurations to reveal biases and patterns of false positives and false negatives in each case. Our experiments show that our novel Bayesian framework Conflux incorporates many of the advantages of the current state-of-the-art methods, while offering more flexibility and improved power in many gene-disease association scenarios.

Inference of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on dynamic Bayesian network hybrid learning method

PubMed Central

Yu, Bin; Xu, Jia-Meng; Li, Shan; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Ming-Hui

2017-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) research reveals complex life phenomena from the perspective of gene interaction, which is an important research field in systems biology. Traditional Bayesian networks have a high computational complexity, and the network structure scoring model has a single feature. Information-based approaches cannot identify the direction of regulation. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the above methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid learning method (DBNCS) based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct the multiple time-delayed GRNs for the first time, combining the comprehensive score (CS) with the DBN model. DBNCS algorithm first uses CMI2NI (conditional mutual inclusive information-based network inference) algorithm for network structure profiles learning, namely the construction of search space. Then the redundant regulations are removed by using the recursive optimization algorithm (RO), thereby reduce the false positive rate. Secondly, the network structure profiles are decomposed into a set of cliques without loss, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, DBN model is used to identify the direction of gene regulation within the cliques and search for the optimal network structure. The performance of DBNCS algorithm is evaluated by the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli, and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results show the rationality of the algorithm design and the outstanding performance of the GRNs. PMID:29113310

Inference of time-delayed gene regulatory networks based on dynamic Bayesian network hybrid learning method.

PubMed

Yu, Bin; Xu, Jia-Meng; Li, Shan; Chen, Cheng; Chen, Rui-Xin; Wang, Lei; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Ming-Hui

2017-10-06

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) research reveals complex life phenomena from the perspective of gene interaction, which is an important research field in systems biology. Traditional Bayesian networks have a high computational complexity, and the network structure scoring model has a single feature. Information-based approaches cannot identify the direction of regulation. In order to make up for the shortcomings of the above methods, this paper presents a novel hybrid learning method (DBNCS) based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct the multiple time-delayed GRNs for the first time, combining the comprehensive score (CS) with the DBN model. DBNCS algorithm first uses CMI2NI (conditional mutual inclusive information-based network inference) algorithm for network structure profiles learning, namely the construction of search space. Then the redundant regulations are removed by using the recursive optimization algorithm (RO), thereby reduce the false positive rate. Secondly, the network structure profiles are decomposed into a set of cliques without loss, which can significantly reduce the computational complexity. Finally, DBN model is used to identify the direction of gene regulation within the cliques and search for the optimal network structure. The performance of DBNCS algorithm is evaluated by the benchmark GRN datasets from DREAM challenge as well as the SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli , and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. The experimental results show the rationality of the algorithm design and the outstanding performance of the GRNs.

[Reliability theory based on quality risk network analysis for Chinese medicine injection].

PubMed

Li, Zheng; Kang, Li-Yuan; Fan, Xiao-Hui

2014-08-01

A new risk analysis method based upon reliability theory was introduced in this paper for the quality risk management of Chinese medicine injection manufacturing plants. The risk events including both cause and effect ones were derived in the framework as nodes with a Bayesian network analysis approach. It thus transforms the risk analysis results from failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) into a Bayesian network platform. With its structure and parameters determined, the network can be used to evaluate the system reliability quantitatively with probabilistic analytical appraoches. Using network analysis tools such as GeNie and AgenaRisk, we are able to find the nodes that are most critical to influence the system reliability. The importance of each node to the system can be quantitatively evaluated by calculating the effect of the node on the overall risk, and minimization plan can be determined accordingly to reduce their influences and improve the system reliability. Using the Shengmai injection manufacturing plant of SZYY Ltd as a user case, we analyzed the quality risk with both static FMEA analysis and dynamic Bayesian Network analysis. The potential risk factors for the quality of Shengmai injection manufacturing were identified with the network analysis platform. Quality assurance actions were further defined to reduce the risk and improve the product quality.

Remote Sensing Image Classification Applied to the First National Geographical Information Census of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Xin; Wen, Zongyong; Zhu, Zhaorong; Xia, Qiang; Shun, Lan

2016-06-01

Image classification will still be a long way in the future, although it has gone almost half a century. In fact, researchers have gained many fruits in the image classification domain, but there is still a long distance between theory and practice. However, some new methods in the artificial intelligence domain will be absorbed into the image classification domain and draw on the strength of each to offset the weakness of the other, which will open up a new prospect. Usually, networks play the role of a high-level language, as is seen in Artificial Intelligence and statistics, because networks are used to build complex model from simple components. These years, Bayesian Networks, one of probabilistic networks, are a powerful data mining technique for handling uncertainty in complex domains. In this paper, we apply Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian Networks (TAN) to texture classification of High-resolution remote sensing images and put up a new method to construct the network topology structure in terms of training accuracy based on the training samples. Since 2013, China government has started the first national geographical information census project, which mainly interprets geographical information based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Therefore, this paper tries to apply Bayesian network to remote sensing image classification, in order to improve image interpretation in the first national geographical information census project. In the experiment, we choose some remote sensing images in Beijing. Experimental results demonstrate TAN outperform than Naive Bayesian Classifier (NBC) and Maximum Likelihood Classification Method (MLC) in the overall classification accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can reduce the workload of field workers and improve the work efficiency. Although it is time consuming, it will be an attractive and effective method for assisting office operation of image interpretation.

Parana Basin Structure from Multi-Objective Inversion of Surface Wave and Receiver Function by Competent Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, M.; Assumpcao, M.

2003-12-01

The joint inversion of receiver function and surface wave is an effective way to diminish the influences of the strong tradeoff among parameters and the different sensitivity to the model parameters in their respective inversions, but the inversion problem becomes more complex. Multi-objective problems can be much more complicated than single-objective inversion in the model selection and optimization. If objectives are involved and conflicting, models can be ordered only partially. In this case, Pareto-optimal preference should be used to select solutions. On the other hand, the inversion to get only a few optimal solutions can not deal properly with the strong tradeoff between parameters, the uncertainties in the observation, the geophysical complexities and even the incompetency of the inversion technique. The effective way is to retrieve the geophysical information statistically from many acceptable solutions, which requires more competent global algorithms. Competent genetic algorithms recently proposed are far superior to the conventional genetic algorithm and can solve hard problems quickly, reliably and accurately. In this work we used one of competent genetic algorithms, Bayesian Optimization Algorithm as the main inverse procedure. This algorithm uses Bayesian networks to draw out inherited information and can use Pareto-optimal preference in the inversion. With this algorithm, the lithospheric structure of Paran"› basin is inverted to fit both the observations of inter-station surface wave dispersion and receiver function.

Applying dynamic Bayesian networks to perturbed gene expression data.

PubMed

Dojer, Norbert; Gambin, Anna; Mizera, Andrzej; Wilczyński, Bartek; Tiuryn, Jerzy

2006-05-08

A central goal of molecular biology is to understand the regulatory mechanisms of gene transcription and protein synthesis. Because of their solid basis in statistics, allowing to deal with the stochastic aspects of gene expressions and noisy measurements in a natural way, Bayesian networks appear attractive in the field of inferring gene interactions structure from microarray experiments data. However, the basic formalism has some disadvantages, e.g. it is sometimes hard to distinguish between the origin and the target of an interaction. Two kinds of microarray experiments yield data particularly rich in information regarding the direction of interactions: time series and perturbation experiments. In order to correctly handle them, the basic formalism must be modified. For example, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) apply to time series microarray data. To our knowledge the DBN technique has not been applied in the context of perturbation experiments. We extend the framework of dynamic Bayesian networks in order to incorporate perturbations. Moreover, an exact algorithm for inferring an optimal network is proposed and a discretization method specialized for time series data from perturbation experiments is introduced. We apply our procedure to realistic simulations data. The results are compared with those obtained by standard DBN learning techniques. Moreover, the advantages of using exact learning algorithm instead of heuristic methods are analyzed. We show that the quality of inferred networks dramatically improves when using data from perturbation experiments. We also conclude that the exact algorithm should be used when it is possible, i.e. when considered set of genes is small enough.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part I: Forward models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

Prediction of coastal processes, including waves, currents, and sediment transport, can be obtained from a variety of detailed geophysical-process models with many simulations showing significant skill. This capability supports a wide range of research and applied efforts that can benefit from accurate numerical predictions. However, the predictions are only as accurate as the data used to drive the models and, given the large temporal and spatial variability of the surf zone, inaccuracies in data are unavoidable such that useful predictions require corresponding estimates of uncertainty. We demonstrate how a Bayesian-network model can be used to provide accurate predictions of wave-height evolution in the surf zone given very sparse and/or inaccurate boundary-condition data. The approach is based on a formal treatment of a data-assimilation problem that takes advantage of significant reduction of the dimensionality of the model system. We demonstrate that predictions of a detailed geophysical model of the wave evolution are reproduced accurately using a Bayesian approach. In this surf-zone application, forward prediction skill was 83%, and uncertainties in the model inputs were accurately transferred to uncertainty in output variables. We also demonstrate that if modeling uncertainties were not conveyed to the Bayesian network (i.e., perfect data or model were assumed), then overly optimistic prediction uncertainties were computed. More consistent predictions and uncertainties were obtained by including model-parameter errors as a source of input uncertainty. Improved predictions (skill of 90%) were achieved because the Bayesian network simultaneously estimated optimal parameters while predicting wave heights.

A comparison of form processing involved in the perception of biological and nonbiological movements

PubMed Central

Thurman, Steven M.; Lu, Hongjing

2016-01-01

Although there is evidence for specialization in the human brain for processing biological motion per se, few studies have directly examined the specialization of form processing in biological motion perception. The current study was designed to systematically compare form processing in perception of biological (human walkers) to nonbiological (rotating squares) stimuli. Dynamic form-based stimuli were constructed with conflicting form cues (position and orientation), such that the objects were perceived to be moving ambiguously in two directions at once. In Experiment 1, we used the classification image technique to examine how local form cues are integrated across space and time in a bottom-up manner. By comparing with a Bayesian observer model that embodies generic principles of form analysis (e.g., template matching) and integrates form information according to cue reliability, we found that human observers employ domain-general processes to recognize both human actions and nonbiological object movements. Experiments 2 and 3 found differential top-down effects of spatial context on perception of biological and nonbiological forms. When a background does not involve social information, observers are biased to perceive foreground object movements in the direction opposite to surrounding motion. However, when a background involves social cues, such as a crowd of similar objects, perception is biased toward the same direction as the crowd for biological walking stimuli, but not for rotating nonbiological stimuli. The model provided an accurate account of top-down modulations by adjusting the prior probabilities associated with the internal templates, demonstrating the power and flexibility of the Bayesian approach for visual form perception. PMID:26746875

A Digital Library for Education: The PEN-DOR Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Karen; Greenberg, Jane; McClure, Maureen; Rasmussen, Edie; Stewart, Darin

1999-01-01

Describes Pen-DOR (Pennsylvania Education Network Digital Object Repository), a digital library designed to provide K-12 educators with access to multimedia resources and tools to create new lesson plans and modify existing ones via the World Wide Web. Discusses design problems of a distributed, object-oriented database architecture and describes…

The relationship between gene transcription and combinations of histone modifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiangjun; Li, Hong; Luo, Liaofu

2012-09-01

Histone modification is an important subject of epigenetics which plays an intrinsic role in transcriptional regulation. It is known that multiple histone modifications act in a combinatorial fashion. In this study, we demonstrated that the pathways within constructed Bayesian networks can give an indication for the combinations among 12 histone modifications which have been studied in the TSS+1kb region in S. cerevisiae. After Bayesian networks for the genes with high transcript levels (H-network) and low transcript levels (L-network) were constructed, the combinations of modifications within the two networks were analyzed from the view of transcript level. The results showed that different combinations played dissimilar roles in the regulation of gene transcription when there exist differences for gene expression at transcription level.

The Extraction of Post-Earthquake Building Damage Informatiom Based on Convolutional Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Wang, X.; Dou, A.; Wu, X.

2018-04-01

The seismic damage information of buildings extracted from remote sensing (RS) imagery is meaningful for supporting relief and effective reduction of losses caused by earthquake. Both traditional pixel-based and object-oriented methods have some shortcoming in extracting information of object. Pixel-based method can't make fully use of contextual information of objects. Object-oriented method faces problem that segmentation of image is not ideal, and the choice of feature space is difficult. In this paper, a new stratage is proposed which combines Convolution Neural Network (CNN) with imagery segmentation to extract building damage information from remote sensing imagery. the key idea of this method includes two steps. First to use CNN to predicate the probability of each pixel and then integrate the probability within each segmentation spot. The method is tested through extracting the collapsed building and uncollapsed building from the aerial image which is acquired in Longtoushan Town after Ms 6.5 Ludian County, Yunnan Province earthquake. The results show that the proposed method indicates its effectiveness in extracting damage information of buildings after earthquake.

A bayesian translational framework for knowledge propagation, discovery, and integration under specific contexts.

PubMed

Deng, Michelle; Zollanvari, Amin; Alterovitz, Gil

2012-01-01

The immense corpus of biomedical literature existing today poses challenges in information search and integration. Many links between pieces of knowledge occur or are significant only under certain contexts-rather than under the entire corpus. This study proposes using networks of ontology concepts, linked based on their co-occurrences in annotations of abstracts of biomedical literature and descriptions of experiments, to draw conclusions based on context-specific queries and to better integrate existing knowledge. In particular, a Bayesian network framework is constructed to allow for the linking of related terms from two biomedical ontologies under the queried context concept. Edges in such a Bayesian network allow associations between biomedical concepts to be quantified and inference to be made about the existence of some concepts given prior information about others. This approach could potentially be a powerful inferential tool for context-specific queries, applicable to ontologies in other fields as well.

A Bayesian Translational Framework for Knowledge Propagation, Discovery, and Integration Under Specific Contexts

PubMed Central

Deng, Michelle; Zollanvari, Amin; Alterovitz, Gil

2012-01-01

The immense corpus of biomedical literature existing today poses challenges in information search and integration. Many links between pieces of knowledge occur or are significant only under certain contexts—rather than under the entire corpus. This study proposes using networks of ontology concepts, linked based on their co-occurrences in annotations of abstracts of biomedical literature and descriptions of experiments, to draw conclusions based on context-specific queries and to better integrate existing knowledge. In particular, a Bayesian network framework is constructed to allow for the linking of related terms from two biomedical ontologies under the queried context concept. Edges in such a Bayesian network allow associations between biomedical concepts to be quantified and inference to be made about the existence of some concepts given prior information about others. This approach could potentially be a powerful inferential tool for context-specific queries, applicable to ontologies in other fields as well. PMID:22779044

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: From a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

Predicting Software Suitability Using a Bayesian Belief Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beaver, Justin M.; Schiavone, Guy A.; Berrios, Joseph S.

2005-01-01

The ability to reliably predict the end quality of software under development presents a significant advantage for a development team. It provides an opportunity to address high risk components earlier in the development life cycle, when their impact is minimized. This research proposes a model that captures the evolution of the quality of a software product, and provides reliable forecasts of the end quality of the software being developed in terms of product suitability. Development team skill, software process maturity, and software problem complexity are hypothesized as driving factors of software product quality. The cause-effect relationships between these factors and the elements of software suitability are modeled using Bayesian Belief Networks, a machine learning method. This research presents a Bayesian Network for software quality, and the techniques used to quantify the factors that influence and represent software quality. The developed model is found to be effective in predicting the end product quality of small-scale software development efforts.

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Examining the Relationship Between Past Orientation and US Suicide Rates: An Analysis Using Big Data-Driven Google Search Queries

PubMed Central

Lee, Donghyun; Lee, Hojun

2016-01-01

Background Internet search query data reflect the attitudes of the users, using which we can measure the past orientation to commit suicide. Examinations of past orientation often highlight certain predispositions of attitude, many of which can be suicide risk factors. Objective To investigate the relationship between past orientation and suicide rate by examining Google search queries. Methods We measured the past orientation using Google search query data by comparing the search volumes of the past year and those of the future year, across the 50 US states and the District of Columbia during the period from 2004 to 2012. We constructed a panel dataset with independent variables as control variables; we then undertook an analysis using multiple ordinary least squares regression and methods that leverage the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. Results It was found that past orientation had a positive relationship with the suicide rate (P≤.001) and that it improves the goodness-of-fit of the model regarding the suicide rate. Unemployment rate (P≤.001 in Models 3 and 4), Gini coefficient (P≤.001), and population growth rate (P≤.001) had a positive relationship with the suicide rate, whereas the gross state product (P≤.001) showed a negative relationship with the suicide rate. Conclusions We empirically identified the positive relationship between the suicide rate and past orientation, which was measured by big data-driven Google search query. PMID:26868917

Online Variational Bayesian Filtering-Based Mobile Target Tracking in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Bingpeng; Chen, Qingchun; Li, Tiffany Jing; Xiao, Pei

2014-01-01

The received signal strength (RSS)-based online tracking for a mobile node in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is investigated in this paper. Firstly, a multi-layer dynamic Bayesian network (MDBN) is introduced to characterize the target mobility with either directional or undirected movement. In particular, it is proposed to employ the Wishart distribution to approximate the time-varying RSS measurement precision's randomness due to the target movement. It is shown that the proposed MDBN offers a more general analysis model via incorporating the underlying statistical information of both the target movement and observations, which can be utilized to improve the online tracking capability by exploiting the Bayesian statistics. Secondly, based on the MDBN model, a mean-field variational Bayesian filtering (VBF) algorithm is developed to realize the online tracking of a mobile target in the presence of nonlinear observations and time-varying RSS precision, wherein the traditional Bayesian filtering scheme cannot be directly employed. Thirdly, a joint optimization between the real-time velocity and its prior expectation is proposed to enable online velocity tracking in the proposed online tacking scheme. Finally, the associated Bayesian Cramer–Rao Lower Bound (BCRLB) analysis and numerical simulations are conducted. Our analysis unveils that, by exploiting the potential state information via the general MDBN model, the proposed VBF algorithm provides a promising solution to the online tracking of a mobile node in WSNs. In addition, it is shown that the final tracking accuracy linearly scales with its expectation when the RSS measurement precision is time-varying. PMID:25393784

Object-Oriented Multi-Disciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pak, Chan-gi

2011-01-01

An Object-Oriented Optimization (O3) tool was developed that leverages existing tools and practices, and allows the easy integration and adoption of new state-of-the-art software. At the heart of the O3 tool is the Central Executive Module (CEM), which can integrate disparate software packages in a cross platform network environment so as to quickly perform optimization and design tasks in a cohesive, streamlined manner. This object-oriented framework can integrate the analysis codes for multiple disciplines instead of relying on one code to perform the analysis for all disciplines. The CEM was written in FORTRAN and the script commands for each performance index were submitted through the use of the FORTRAN Call System command. In this CEM, the user chooses an optimization methodology, defines objective and constraint functions from performance indices, and provides starting and side constraints for continuous as well as discrete design variables. The structural analysis modules such as computations of the structural weight, stress, deflection, buckling, and flutter and divergence speeds have been developed and incorporated into the O3 tool to build an object-oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDAO) tool.

Investigating the Effects of Imputation Methods for Modelling Gene Networks Using a Dynamic Bayesian Network from Gene Expression Data

PubMed Central

CHAI, Lian En; LAW, Chow Kuan; MOHAMAD, Mohd Saberi; CHONG, Chuii Khim; CHOON, Yee Wen; DERIS, Safaai; ILLIAS, Rosli Md

2014-01-01

Background: Gene expression data often contain missing expression values. Therefore, several imputation methods have been applied to solve the missing values, which include k-nearest neighbour (kNN), local least squares (LLS), and Bayesian principal component analysis (BPCA). However, the effects of these imputation methods on the modelling of gene regulatory networks from gene expression data have rarely been investigated and analysed using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). Methods: In the present study, we separately imputed datasets of the Escherichia coli S.O.S. DNA repair pathway and the Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle pathway with kNN, LLS, and BPCA, and subsequently used these to generate gene regulatory networks (GRNs) using a discrete DBN. We made comparisons on the basis of previous studies in order to select the gene network with the least error. Results: We found that BPCA and LLS performed better on larger networks (based on the S. cerevisiae dataset), whereas kNN performed better on smaller networks (based on the E. coli dataset). Conclusion: The results suggest that the performance of each imputation method is dependent on the size of the dataset, and this subsequently affects the modelling of the resultant GRNs using a DBN. In addition, on the basis of these results, a DBN has the capacity to discover potential edges, as well as display interactions, between genes. PMID:24876803

Bayesian Estimation of the Spatially Varying Completeness Magnitude of Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignan, A.; Werner, M.; Wiemer, S.; Chen, C.; Wu, Y.

2010-12-01

Assessing the completeness magnitude Mc of earthquake catalogs is an essential prerequisite for any seismicity analysis. We employ a simple model to compute Mc in space, based on the proximity to seismic stations in a network. We show that a relationship of the form Mcpred(d) = ad^b+c, with d the distance to the 5th nearest seismic station, fits the observations well. We then propose a new Mc mapping approach, the Bayesian Magnitude of Completeness (BMC) method, based on a 2-step procedure: (1) a spatial resolution optimization to minimize spatial heterogeneities and uncertainties in Mc estimates and (2) a Bayesian approach that merges prior information about Mc based on the proximity to seismic stations with locally observed values weighted by their respective uncertainties. This new methodology eliminates most weaknesses associated with current Mc mapping procedures: the radius that defines which earthquakes to include in the local magnitude distribution is chosen according to an objective criterion and there are no gaps in the spatial estimation of Mc. The method solely requires the coordinates of seismic stations. Here, we investigate the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) earthquake catalog by computing a Mc map for the period 1994-2010.

Learning Oriented Region-based Convolutional Neural Networks for Building Detection in Satellite Remote Sensing Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Gong, W.; Hu, Y.; Chen, Y.; Ding, Y.

2017-05-01

The automated building detection in aerial images is a fundamental problem encountered in aerial and satellite images analysis. Recently, thanks to the advances in feature descriptions, Region-based CNN model (R-CNN) for object detection is receiving an increasing attention. Despite the excellent performance in object detection, it is problematic to directly leverage the features of R-CNN model for building detection in single aerial image. As we know, the single aerial image is in vertical view and the buildings possess significant directional feature. However, in R-CNN model, direction of the building is ignored and the detection results are represented by horizontal rectangles. For this reason, the detection results with horizontal rectangle cannot describe the building precisely. To address this problem, in this paper, we proposed a novel model with a key feature related to orientation, namely, Oriented R-CNN (OR-CNN). Our contributions are mainly in the following two aspects: 1) Introducing a new oriented layer network for detecting the rotation angle of building on the basis of the successful VGG-net R-CNN model; 2) the oriented rectangle is proposed to leverage the powerful R-CNN for remote-sensing building detection. In experiments, we establish a complete and bran-new data set for training our oriented R-CNN model and comprehensively evaluate the proposed method on a publicly available building detection data set. We demonstrate State-of-the-art results compared with the previous baseline methods.

Effective Connectivity Reveals Right-Hemisphere Dominance in Audiospatial Perception: Implications for Models of Spatial Neglect

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Mattingley, Jason B.; Roepstorff, Andreas; Garrido, Marta I.

2014-01-01

Detecting the location of salient sounds in the environment rests on the brain's ability to use differences in sounds arriving at both ears. Functional neuroimaging studies in humans indicate that the left and right auditory hemispaces are coded asymmetrically, with a rightward attentional bias that reflects spatial attention in vision. Neuropsychological observations in patients with spatial neglect have led to the formulation of two competing models: the orientation bias and right-hemisphere dominance models. The orientation bias model posits a symmetrical mapping between one side of the sensorium and the contralateral hemisphere, with mutual inhibition of the ipsilateral hemisphere. The right-hemisphere dominance model introduces a functional asymmetry in the brain's coding of space: the left hemisphere represents the right side, whereas the right hemisphere represents both sides of the sensorium. We used Dynamic Causal Modeling of effective connectivity and Bayesian model comparison to adjudicate between these alternative network architectures, based on human electroencephalographic data acquired during an auditory location oddball paradigm. Our results support a hemispheric asymmetry in a frontoparietal network that conforms to the right-hemisphere dominance model. We show that, within this frontoparietal network, forward connectivity increases selectively in the hemisphere contralateral to the side of sensory stimulation. We interpret this finding in light of hierarchical predictive coding as a selective increase in attentional gain, which is mediated by feedforward connections that carry precision-weighted prediction errors during perceptual inference. This finding supports the disconnection hypothesis of unilateral neglect and has implications for theories of its etiology. PMID:24695717

Comparison of Classifiers for Decoding Sensory and Cognitive Information from Prefrontal Neuronal Populations

PubMed Central

Astrand, Elaine; Enel, Pierre; Ibos, Guilhem; Dominey, Peter Ford; Baraduc, Pierre; Ben Hamed, Suliann

2014-01-01

Decoding neuronal information is important in neuroscience, both as a basic means to understand how neuronal activity is related to cerebral function and as a processing stage in driving neuroprosthetic effectors. Here, we compare the readout performance of six commonly used classifiers at decoding two different variables encoded by the spiking activity of the non-human primate frontal eye fields (FEF): the spatial position of a visual cue, and the instructed orientation of the animal's attention. While the first variable is exogenously driven by the environment, the second variable corresponds to the interpretation of the instruction conveyed by the cue; it is endogenously driven and corresponds to the output of internal cognitive operations performed on the visual attributes of the cue. These two variables were decoded using either a regularized optimal linear estimator in its explicit formulation, an optimal linear artificial neural network estimator, a non-linear artificial neural network estimator, a non-linear naïve Bayesian estimator, a non-linear Reservoir recurrent network classifier or a non-linear Support Vector Machine classifier. Our results suggest that endogenous information such as the orientation of attention can be decoded from the FEF with the same accuracy as exogenous visual information. All classifiers did not behave equally in the face of population size and heterogeneity, the available training and testing trials, the subject's behavior and the temporal structure of the variable of interest. In most situations, the regularized optimal linear estimator and the non-linear Support Vector Machine classifiers outperformed the other tested decoders. PMID:24466019

Image classification independent of orientation and scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, Henri H.; Parent, Sebastien; Moisan, Sylvain

1998-04-01

The recognition of targets independently of orientation has become fairly well developed in recent years for in-plane rotation. The out-of-plane rotation problem is much less advanced. When both out-of-plane rotations and changes of scale are present, the problem becomes very difficult. In this paper we describe our research on the combined out-of- plane rotation problem and the scale invariance problem. The rotations were limited to rotations about an axis perpendicular to the line of sight. The objects to be classified were three kinds of military vehicles. The inputs used were infrared imagery and photographs. We used a variation of a method proposed by Neiberg and Casasent, where a neural network is trained with a subset of the database and a minimum distances from lines in feature space are used for classification instead of nearest neighbors. Each line in the feature space corresponds to one class of objects, and points on one line correspond to different orientations of the same target. We found that the training samples needed to be closer for some orientations than for others, and that the most difficult orientations are where the target is head-on to the observer. By means of some additional training of the neural network, we were able to achieve 100% correct classification for 360 degree rotation and a range of scales over a factor of five.

Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.

2008-04-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.

Ubiquitous Virtual Private Network: A Solution for WSN Seamless Integration

PubMed Central

Villa, David; Moya, Francisco; Villanueva, Félix Jesús; Aceña, Óscar; López, Juan Carlos

2014-01-01

Sensor networks are becoming an essential part of ubiquitous systems and applications. However, there are no well-defined protocols or mechanisms to access the sensor network from the enterprise information system. We consider this issue as a heterogeneous network interconnection problem, and as a result, the same concepts may be applied. Specifically, we propose the use of object-oriented middlewares to provide a virtual private network in which all involved elements (sensor nodes or computer applications) will be able to communicate as if all of them were in a single and uniform network. PMID:24399154

Bayesian Computation Emerges in Generic Cortical Microcircuits through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity

PubMed Central

Nessler, Bernhard; Pfeiffer, Michael; Buesing, Lars; Maass, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

The principles by which networks of neurons compute, and how spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) of synaptic weights generates and maintains their computational function, are unknown. Preceding work has shown that soft winner-take-all (WTA) circuits, where pyramidal neurons inhibit each other via interneurons, are a common motif of cortical microcircuits. We show through theoretical analysis and computer simulations that Bayesian computation is induced in these network motifs through STDP in combination with activity-dependent changes in the excitability of neurons. The fundamental components of this emergent Bayesian computation are priors that result from adaptation of neuronal excitability and implicit generative models for hidden causes that are created in the synaptic weights through STDP. In fact, a surprising result is that STDP is able to approximate a powerful principle for fitting such implicit generative models to high-dimensional spike inputs: Expectation Maximization. Our results suggest that the experimentally observed spontaneous activity and trial-to-trial variability of cortical neurons are essential features of their information processing capability, since their functional role is to represent probability distributions rather than static neural codes. Furthermore it suggests networks of Bayesian computation modules as a new model for distributed information processing in the cortex. PMID:23633941

Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac

2014-03-01

Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.

Efficacy of nonvenous medications for acute convulsive seizures

PubMed Central

Kothari, Harsh; Zhang, Zongjun; Han, Baoguang; Horn, Paul S.; Glauser, Tracy A.

2015-01-01

Objective: This is a network meta-analysis of nonvenous drugs used in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for treatment of acute convulsive seizures and convulsive status epilepticus. Methods: Literature was searched according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for RCTs examining treatment of acute convulsive seizures or status epilepticus with at least one of the study arms being a nonvenous medication. After demographic and outcome data extraction, a Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed and efficacy results were summarized using treatment effects and their credible intervals (CrI). We also calculated the probability of each route–drug combination being the most clinically effective for a given outcome, and provided their Bayesian hierarchical ranking. Results: This meta-analysis of 16 studies found that intramuscular midazolam (IM-MDZ) is superior to other nonvenous medications regarding time to seizure termination after administration (2.145 minutes, 95% CrI 1.308–3.489), time to seizure cessation after arrival in the hospital (3.841 minutes, 95% CrI 2.697–5.416), and time to initiate treatment (0.779 minutes, 95% CrI 0.495–1.221). Additionally, intranasal midazolam (IN-MDZ) was adjudged most efficacious for seizure cessation within 10 minutes of administration (90.4% of participants, 95% CrI 79.4%–96.9%), and persistent seizure cessation for ≥1 hour (78.5% of participants, 95% CrI 59.5%–92.1%). Paucity of RCTs produced evidence gaps resulting in small networks, routes/drugs included in some networks but not others, and some trials not being connected to any network. Conclusions: Despite the evidence gaps, IM-MDZ and IN-MDZ exhibit the best efficacy data for the nonvenous treatment of acute convulsive seizures or status epilepticus. PMID:26511448

Image Engine: an object-oriented multimedia database for storing, retrieving and sharing medical images and text.

PubMed Central

Lowe, H. J.

1993-01-01

This paper describes Image Engine, an object-oriented, microcomputer-based, multimedia database designed to facilitate the storage and retrieval of digitized biomedical still images, video, and text using inexpensive desktop computers. The current prototype runs on Apple Macintosh computers and allows network database access via peer to peer file sharing protocols. Image Engine supports both free text and controlled vocabulary indexing of multimedia objects. The latter is implemented using the TView thesaurus model developed by the author. The current prototype of Image Engine uses the National Library of Medicine's Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) vocabulary (with UMLS Meta-1 extensions) as its indexing thesaurus. PMID:8130596

Largenet2: an object-oriented programming library for simulating large adaptive networks.

PubMed

Zschaler, Gerd; Gross, Thilo

2013-01-15

The largenet2 C++ library provides an infrastructure for the simulation of large dynamic and adaptive networks with discrete node and link states. The library is released as free software. It is available at http://biond.github.com/largenet2. Largenet2 is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License. gerd@biond.org

Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data Guy Van den Broeck∗ and Karthika Mohan∗ and Arthur Choi and Adnan ...notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does...Wasserman, L. (2011). All of Statistics. Springer Science & Business Media. Yaramakala, S., & Margaritis, D. (2005). Speculative markov blanket discovery for optimal feature selection. In Proceedings of ICDM.

A functional-dependencies-based Bayesian networks learning method and its application in a mobile commerce system.

PubMed

Liao, Stephen Shaoyi; Wang, Huai Qing; Li, Qiu Dan; Liu, Wei Yi

2006-06-01

This paper presents a new method for learning Bayesian networks from functional dependencies (FD) and third normal form (3NF) tables in relational databases. The method sets up a linkage between the theory of relational databases and probabilistic reasoning models, which is interesting and useful especially when data are incomplete and inaccurate. The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is demonstrated by its implementation in a mobile commerce system.

Bayesian network interface for assisting radiology interpretation and education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duda, Jeffrey; Botzolakis, Emmanuel; Chen, Po-Hao; Mohan, Suyash; Nasrallah, Ilya; Rauschecker, Andreas; Rudie, Jeffrey; Bryan, R. Nick; Gee, James; Cook, Tessa

2018-03-01

In this work, we present the use of Bayesian networks for radiologist decision support during clinical interpretation. This computational approach has the advantage of avoiding incorrect diagnoses that result from known human cognitive biases such as anchoring bias, framing effect, availability bias, and premature closure. To integrate Bayesian networks into clinical practice, we developed an open-source web application that provides diagnostic support for a variety of radiology disease entities (e.g., basal ganglia diseases, bone lesions). The Clinical tool presents the user with a set of buttons representing clinical and imaging features of interest. These buttons are used to set the value for each observed feature. As features are identified, the conditional probabilities for each possible diagnosis are updated in real time. Additionally, using sensitivity analysis, the interface may be set to inform the user which remaining imaging features provide maximum discriminatory information to choose the most likely diagnosis. The Case Submission tools allow the user to submit a validated case and the associated imaging features to a database, which can then be used for future tuning/testing of the Bayesian networks. These submitted cases are then reviewed by an assigned expert using the provided QC tool. The Research tool presents users with cases with previously labeled features and a chosen diagnosis, for the purpose of performance evaluation. Similarly, the Education page presents cases with known features, but provides real time feedback on feature selection.

Nonlinear inversion of electrical resistivity imaging using pruning Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fei-Bo; Dai, Qian-Wei; Dong, Li

2016-06-01

Conventional artificial neural networks used to solve electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) inversion problem suffer from overfitting and local minima. To solve these problems, we propose to use a pruning Bayesian neural network (PBNN) nonlinear inversion method and a sample design method based on the K-medoids clustering algorithm. In the sample design method, the training samples of the neural network are designed according to the prior information provided by the K-medoids clustering results; thus, the training process of the neural network is well guided. The proposed PBNN, based on Bayesian regularization, is used to select the hidden layer structure by assessing the effect of each hidden neuron to the inversion results. Then, the hyperparameter α k , which is based on the generalized mean, is chosen to guide the pruning process according to the prior distribution of the training samples under the small-sample condition. The proposed algorithm is more efficient than other common adaptive regularization methods in geophysics. The inversion of synthetic data and field data suggests that the proposed method suppresses the noise in the neural network training stage and enhances the generalization. The inversion results with the proposed method are better than those of the BPNN, RBFNN, and RRBFNN inversion methods as well as the conventional least squares inversion.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, Michael S.

2011-01-01

Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.

A novel approach for pilot error detection using Dynamic Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Saada, Mohamad; Meng, Qinggang; Huang, Tingwen

2014-06-01

In the last decade Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) have become one type of the most attractive probabilistic modelling framework extensions of Bayesian Networks (BNs) for working under uncertainties from a temporal perspective. Despite this popularity not many researchers have attempted to study the use of these networks in anomaly detection or the implications of data anomalies on the outcome of such models. An abnormal change in the modelled environment's data at a given time, will cause a trailing chain effect on data of all related environment variables in current and consecutive time slices. Albeit this effect fades with time, it still can have an ill effect on the outcome of such models. In this paper we propose an algorithm for pilot error detection, using DBNs as the modelling framework for learning and detecting anomalous data. We base our experiments on the actions of an aircraft pilot, and a flight simulator is created for running the experiments. The proposed anomaly detection algorithm has achieved good results in detecting pilot errors and effects on the whole system.

Bayesian Inference for Time Trends in Parameter Values: Case Study for the Ageing PSA Network of the European Commission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly; Albert Malkhasyan

2010-06-01

There is a nearly ubiquitous assumption in PSA that parameter values are at least piecewise-constant in time. As a result, Bayesian inference tends to incorporate many years of plant operation, over which there have been significant changes in plant operational and maintenance practices, plant management, etc. These changes can cause significant changes in parameter values over time; however, failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework can mask these changes. Failure to question the assumption of constant parameter values, and failure to perform Bayesian inference in the proper time-dependent framework were noted as important issues in NUREG/CR-6813, performedmore » for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards in 2003. That report noted that “industry lacks tools to perform time-trend analysis with Bayesian updating.” This paper describes an application of time-dependent Bayesian inference methods developed for the European Commission Ageing PSA Network. These methods utilize open-source software, implementing Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The paper also illustrates the development of a generic prior distribution, which incorporates multiple sources of generic data via weighting factors that address differences in key influences, such as vendor, component boundaries, conditions of the operating environment, etc.« less

Bayesian Decision Support for Adaptive Lung Treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McShan, Daniel; Luo, Yi; Schipper, Matt; TenHaken, Randall

2014-03-01

Purpose: A Bayesian Decision Network will be demonstrated to provide clinical decision support for adaptive lung response-driven treatment management based on evidence that physiologic metrics may correlate better with individual patient response than traditional (population-based) dose and volume-based metrics. Further, there is evidence that information obtained during the course of radiation therapy may further improve response predictions. Methods: Clinical factors were gathered for 58 patients including planned mean lung dose, and the bio-markers IL-8 and TGF-β1 obtained prior to treatment and two weeks into treatment along with complication outcomes for these patients. A Bayesian Decision Network was constructed using Netica 5.0.2 from Norsys linking these clinical factors to obtain a prediction of radiation induced lung disese (RILD) complication. A decision node was added to the network to provide a plan adaption recommendation based on the trade-off between the RILD prediction and complexity of replanning. A utility node provides the weighting cost between the competing factors. Results: The decision node predictions were optimized against the data for the 58 cases. With this decision network solution, one can consider the decision result for a new patient with specific findings to obtain a recommendation to adaptively modify the originally planned treatment course. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach allows handling and propagating probabilistic data in a logical and principled manner. Decision networks provide the further ability to provide utility-based trade-offs, reflecting non-medical but practical cost/benefit analysis. The network demonstrated illustrates the basic concept, but many other factors may affect these decisions and work on building better models are being designed and tested. Acknowledgement: Supported by NIH-P01-CA59827

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review

PubMed Central

McClelland, James L.

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered. PMID:23970868

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review.

PubMed

McClelland, James L

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered.

Risk analysis of new oral anticoagulants for gastrointestinal bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage in atrial fibrillation patients: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Xu, Wei-Wei; Hu, Shen-Jiang; Wu, Tao

2017-07-01

Antithrombotic therapy using new oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) has been generally shown to have a favorable risk-benefit profile. Since there has been dispute about the risks of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), we sought to conduct a systematic review and network meta-analysis using Bayesian inference to analyze the risks of GIB and ICH in AF patients taking NOACs. We analyzed data from 20 randomized controlled trials of 91 671 AF patients receiving anticoagulants, antiplatelet drugs, or placebo. Bayesian network meta-analysis of two different evidence networks was performed using a binomial likelihood model, based on a network in which different agents (and doses) were treated as separate nodes. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were modeled using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Indirect comparisons with the Bayesian model confirmed that aspirin+clopidogrel significantly increased the risk of GIB in AF patients compared to the placebo (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01-0.92). Warfarin was identified as greatly increasing the risk of ICH compared to edoxaban 30 mg (OR 3.42, 95% CI 1.22-7.24) and dabigatran 110 mg (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.10-8.45). We further ranked the NOACs for the lowest risk of GIB (apixaban 5 mg) and ICH (apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, and edoxaban 30 mg). Bayesian network meta-analysis of treatment of non-valvular AF patients with anticoagulants suggested that NOACs do not increase risks of GIB and/or ICH, compared to each other.

Unified web-based network management based on distributed object orientated software agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djalalian, Amir; Mukhtar, Rami; Zukerman, Moshe

2002-09-01

This paper presents an architecture that provides a unified web interface to managed network devices that support CORBA, OSI or Internet-based network management protocols. A client gains access to managed devices through a web browser, which is used to issue management operations and receive event notifications. The proposed architecture is compatible with both the OSI Management reference Model and CORBA. The steps required for designing the building blocks of such architecture are identified.

Hybrid ICA-Bayesian network approach reveals distinct effective connectivity differences in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Kim, D; Burge, J; Lane, T; Pearlson, G D; Kiehl, K A; Calhoun, V D

2008-10-01

We utilized a discrete dynamic Bayesian network (dDBN) approach (Burge, J., Lane, T., Link, H., Qiu, S., Clark, V.P., 2007. Discrete dynamic Bayesian network analysis of fMRI data. Hum Brain Mapp.) to determine differences in brain regions between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls on a measure of effective connectivity, termed the approximate conditional likelihood score (ACL) (Burge, J., Lane, T., 2005. Learning Class-Discriminative Dynamic Bayesian Networks. Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, Bonn, Germany, pp. 97-104.). The ACL score represents a class-discriminative measure of effective connectivity by measuring the relative likelihood of the correlation between brain regions in one group versus another. The algorithm is capable of finding non-linear relationships between brain regions because it uses discrete rather than continuous values and attempts to model temporal relationships with a first-order Markov and stationary assumption constraint (Papoulis, A., 1991. Probability, random variables, and stochastic processes. McGraw-Hill, New York.). Since Bayesian networks are overly sensitive to noisy data, we introduced an independent component analysis (ICA) filtering approach that attempted to reduce the noise found in fMRI data by unmixing the raw datasets into a set of independent spatial component maps. Components that represented noise were removed and the remaining components reconstructed into the dimensions of the original fMRI datasets. We applied the dDBN algorithm to a group of 35 patients with schizophrenia and 35 matched healthy controls using an ICA filtered and unfiltered approach. We determined that filtering the data significantly improved the magnitude of the ACL score. Patients showed the greatest ACL scores in several regions, most markedly the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres. Our findings suggest that schizophrenia patients exhibit weaker connectivity than healthy controls in multiple regions, including bilateral temporal, frontal, and cerebellar regions during an auditory paradigm.

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Alveolar ridge preservation after tooth extraction: a Bayesian Network meta-analysis of grafting materials efficacy on prevention of bone height and width reduction.

PubMed

Iocca, Oreste; Farcomeni, Alessio; Pardiñas Lopez, Simon; Talib, Huzefa S

2017-01-01

To conduct a traditional meta-analysis and a Bayesian Network meta-analysis to synthesize the information coming from randomized controlled trials on different socket grafting materials and combine the resulting indirect evidence in order to make inferences on treatments that have not been compared directly. RCTs were identified for inclusion in the systematic review and subsequent statistical analysis. Bone height and width remodelling were selected as the chosen summary measures for comparison. First, a series of pairwise meta-analyses were performed and overall mean difference (MD) in mm with 95% CI was calculated between grafted versus non-grafted sockets. Then, a Bayesian Network meta-analysis was performed to draw indirect conclusions on which grafting materials can be considered most likely the best compared to the others. From the six included studies, seven comparisons were obtained. Traditional meta-analysis showed statistically significant results in favour of grafting the socket compared to no-graft both for height (MD 1.02, 95% CI 0.44-1.59, p value < 0.001) than for width (MD 1.52 95% CI 1.18-1.86, p value <0.000001) remodelling. Bayesian Network meta-analysis allowed to obtain a rank of intervention efficacy. On the basis of the results of the present analysis, socket grafting seems to be more favourable than unassisted socket healing. Moreover, Bayesian Network meta-analysis indicates that freeze-dried bone graft plus membrane is the most likely effective in the reduction of bone height remodelling. Autologous bone marrow resulted the most likely effective when width remodelling was considered. Studies with larger samples and less risk of bias should be conducted in the future in order to further strengthen the results of this analysis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian switching factor analysis for estimating time-varying functional connectivity in fMRI.

PubMed

Taghia, Jalil; Ryali, Srikanth; Chen, Tianwen; Supekar, Kaustubh; Cai, Weidong; Menon, Vinod

2017-07-15

There is growing interest in understanding the dynamical properties of functional interactions between distributed brain regions. However, robust estimation of temporal dynamics from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data remains challenging due to limitations in extant multivariate methods for modeling time-varying functional interactions between multiple brain areas. Here, we develop a Bayesian generative model for fMRI time-series within the framework of hidden Markov models (HMMs). The model is a dynamic variant of the static factor analysis model (Ghahramani and Beal, 2000). We refer to this model as Bayesian switching factor analysis (BSFA) as it integrates factor analysis into a generative HMM in a unified Bayesian framework. In BSFA, brain dynamic functional networks are represented by latent states which are learnt from the data. Crucially, BSFA is a generative model which estimates the temporal evolution of brain states and transition probabilities between states as a function of time. An attractive feature of BSFA is the automatic determination of the number of latent states via Bayesian model selection arising from penalization of excessively complex models. Key features of BSFA are validated using extensive simulations on carefully designed synthetic data. We further validate BSFA using fingerprint analysis of multisession resting-state fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our results show that modeling temporal dependencies in the generative model of BSFA results in improved fingerprinting of individual participants. Finally, we apply BSFA to elucidate the dynamic functional organization of the salience, central-executive, and default mode networks-three core neurocognitive systems with central role in cognitive and affective information processing (Menon, 2011). Across two HCP sessions, we demonstrate a high level of dynamic interactions between these networks and determine that the salience network has the highest temporal flexibility among the three networks. Our proposed methods provide a novel and powerful generative model for investigating dynamic brain connectivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Group-oriented coordination models for distributed client-server computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Richard M.; Hughes, Craig S.

1994-01-01

This paper describes group-oriented control models for distributed client-server interactions. These models transparently coordinate requests for services that involve multiple servers, such as queries across distributed databases. Specific capabilities include: decomposing and replicating client requests; dispatching request subtasks or copies to independent, networked servers; and combining server results into a single response for the client. The control models were implemented by combining request broker and process group technologies with an object-oriented communication middleware tool. The models are illustrated in the context of a distributed operations support application for space-based systems.

Science - Image in Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavidovique, Bertrand; Lo Bosco, Giosue'

pt. A. Information: data organization and communication. Statistical information: a Bayesian perspective / R. B. Stern, C. A. de B. Pereira. Multi-a(ge)nt graph patrolling and partitioning / Y. Elor, A. M. Bruckstein. The role of noise in brain function / S. Roy, R. Llinas. F-granulation, generalized rough entropy and image analysis / S. K. Pal. Fast redshift clustering with the Baire (ultra) metric / F. Murtagh, P. Contreras. Interactive classification oriented superresolution of multispectral images / P. Ruiz ... [et al.]. Blind processing in astrophysical data analysis / E. Salerno, L. Bedini. The extinction map of the orion molecular cloud / G. Scandariato (best student's paper), I. Pagano, M. Robberto -- pt. B. System: structure and behaviour. Common grounds: the role of perception in science and the nature of transitions / G. Bernroider. Looking the world from inside: intrinsic geometry of complex systems / L. Boi. The butterfly and the photon: new perspectives on unpredictability, and the notion of casual reality, in quantum physics / T. N. Palmer. Self-replicated wave patterns in neural networks with complex threshold / V. I. Nekorkin. A local explication of causation / G. Boniolo, R. Faraldo, A. Saggion. Evolving complexity, cognition, and consciousness / H. Liljenstrom. Self-assembly, modularity and physical complexity / S. E. Ahnert. The category of topological thermodynamics / R. M. Kiehn. Anti-phase spiking patterns / M. P. Igaev, A. S. Dmitrichev, V. I. Nekorkin -- pt. C. Data/system representation. Reality, models and representations: the case of galaxies, intelligence and avatars / J-C. Heudin. Astronomical images and data mining in the international virtual observatory context / F. Pasian, M. Brescia, G. Longo. Dame: a web oriented infrastructure for scientific data mining and exploration / S. Cavuoti ... [et al.]. Galactic phase spaces / D. Chakrabarty. From data to images: a shape based approach for fluorescence tomography / O. Dorn, K. E. Prieto. The influence of texture symmetry in marker pointing: experimenting with humans and algorithms / M. Cardaci, M. E. Tabacchi. A multiscale autocorrelation function for anisotropy studies / M. Scuderi ... [et al.]. A multiscale, lacunarity and neural network method for [symbol]/h discrimination in extensive air showers / A. Pagliaro, F. D'anna, G. D'ali Staiti. Bayesian semi-parametric curve-fitting and clustering in SDSS data / S. Mukkhopadhyay, S. Roy, S. Bhattacharya.

WaveJava: Wavelet-based network computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Kun; Jiao, Licheng; Shi, Zhuoer

1997-04-01

Wavelet is a powerful theory, but its successful application still needs suitable programming tools. Java is a simple, object-oriented, distributed, interpreted, robust, secure, architecture-neutral, portable, high-performance, multi- threaded, dynamic language. This paper addresses the design and development of a cross-platform software environment for experimenting and applying wavelet theory. WaveJava, a wavelet class library designed by the object-orient programming, is developed to take advantage of the wavelets features, such as multi-resolution analysis and parallel processing in the networking computing. A new application architecture is designed for the net-wide distributed client-server environment. The data are transmitted with multi-resolution packets. At the distributed sites around the net, these data packets are done the matching or recognition processing in parallel. The results are fed back to determine the next operation. So, the more robust results can be arrived quickly. The WaveJava is easy to use and expand for special application. This paper gives a solution for the distributed fingerprint information processing system. It also fits for some other net-base multimedia information processing, such as network library, remote teaching and filmless picture archiving and communications.

Immune allied genetic algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Qin; Lin, Feng; Sun, Wei; Chang, KC

2012-06-01

Bayesian network (BN) structure learning is a NP-hard problem. In this paper, we present an improved approach to enhance efficiency of BN structure learning. To avoid premature convergence in traditional single-group genetic algorithm (GA), we propose an immune allied genetic algorithm (IAGA) in which the multiple-population and allied strategy are introduced. Moreover, in the algorithm, we apply prior knowledge by injecting immune operator to individuals which can effectively prevent degeneration. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, we present some experimental results.

Bayesian networks and statistical analysis application to analyze the diagnostic test accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzechowski, P.; Makal, Jaroslaw; Onisko, A.

2005-02-01

The computer aided BPH diagnosis system based on Bayesian network is described in the paper. First result are compared to a given statistical method. Different statistical methods are used successfully in medicine for years. However, the undoubted advantages of probabilistic methods make them useful in application in newly created systems which are frequent in medicine, but do not have full and competent knowledge. The article presents advantages of the computer aided BPH diagnosis system in clinical practice for urologists.

Application of multivariate probabilistic (Bayesian) networks to substance use disorder risk stratification and cost estimation.

PubMed

Weinstein, Lawrence; Radano, Todd A; Jack, Timothy; Kalina, Philip; Eberhardt, John S

2009-09-16

This paper explores the use of machine learning and Bayesian classification models to develop broadly applicable risk stratification models to guide disease management of health plan enrollees with substance use disorder (SUD). While the high costs and morbidities associated with SUD are understood by payers, who manage it through utilization review, acute interventions, coverage and cost limitations, and disease management, the literature shows mixed results for these modalities in improving patient outcomes and controlling cost. Our objective is to evaluate the potential of data mining methods to identify novel risk factors for chronic disease and stratification of enrollee utilization, which can be used to develop new methods for targeting disease management services to maximize benefits to both enrollees and payers. For our evaluation, we used DecisionQ machine learning algorithms to build Bayesian network models of a representative sample of data licensed from Thomson-Reuters' MarketScan consisting of 185,322 enrollees with three full-year claim records. Data sets were prepared, and a stepwise learning process was used to train a series of Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). The BBNs were validated using a 10 percent holdout set. The networks were highly predictive, with the risk-stratification BBNs producing area under the curve (AUC) for SUD positive of 0.948 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.951) and 0.736 (95 percent CI, 0.721-0.752), respectively, and SUD negative of 0.951 (95 percent CI, 0.947-0.954) and 0.738 (95 percent CI, 0.727-0.750), respectively. The cost estimation models produced area under the curve ranging from 0.72 (95 percent CI, 0.708-0.731) to 0.961 (95 percent CI, 0.95-0.971). We were able to successfully model a large, heterogeneous population of commercial enrollees, applying state-of-the-art machine learning technology to develop complex and accurate multivariate models that support near-real-time scoring of novel payer populations based on historic claims and diagnostic data. Initial validation results indicate that we can stratify enrollees with SUD diagnoses into different cost categories with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity, and the most challenging issue becomes one of policy. Due to the social stigma associated with the disease and ethical issues pertaining to access to care and individual versus societal benefit, a thoughtful dialogue needs to occur about the appropriate way to implement these technologies.

Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

PubMed

Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

2018-04-01

Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, T. E.; Aspinall, W. P.; Odbert, H. M.; Wadge, G.; Sparks, R. S. J.

2017-07-01

Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes.

How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

PubMed

Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

2016-01-01

Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

Parameter inference in small world network disease models with approximate Bayesian Computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, David M.; Allingham, David; Lee, Heung Wing Joseph; Small, Michael

2010-02-01

Small world network models have been effective in capturing the variable behaviour of reported case data of the SARS coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong during 2003. Simulations of these models have previously been realized using informed “guesses” of the proposed model parameters and tested for consistency with the reported data by surrogate analysis. In this paper we attempt to provide statistically rigorous parameter distributions using Approximate Bayesian Computation sampling methods. We find that such sampling schemes are a useful framework for fitting parameters of stochastic small world network models where simulation of the system is straightforward but expressing a likelihood is cumbersome.

[The therapeutic drug monitoring network server of tacrolimus for Chinese renal transplant patients].

PubMed

Deng, Chen-Hui; Zhang, Guan-Min; Bi, Shan-Shan; Zhou, Tian-Yan; Lu, Wei

2011-07-01

This study is to develop a therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) network server of tacrolimus for Chinese renal transplant patients, which can facilitate doctor to manage patients' information and provide three levels of predictions. Database management system MySQL was employed to build and manage the database of patients and doctors' information, and hypertext mark-up language (HTML) and Java server pages (JSP) technology were employed to construct network server for database management. Based on the population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus for Chinese renal transplant patients, above program languages were used to construct the population prediction and subpopulation prediction modules. Based on Bayesian principle and maximization of the posterior probability function, an objective function was established, and minimized by an optimization algorithm to estimate patient's individual pharmacokinetic parameters. It is proved that the network server has the basic functions for database management and three levels of prediction to aid doctor to optimize the regimen of tacrolimus for Chinese renal transplant patients.

Assessment of Manual Operation Time for the Manufacturing of Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display: A Bayesian Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chien-wen

2009-01-01

During the processes of TFT-LCD manufacturing, steps like visual inspection of panel surface defects still heavily rely on manual operations. As the manual inspection time of TFT-LCD manufacturing could range from 4 hours to 1 day, the reliability of time forecasting is thus important for production planning, scheduling and customer response. This study would like to propose a practical and easy-to-implement prediction model through the approach of Bayesian networks for time estimation of manual operated procedures in TFT-LCD manufacturing. Given the lack of prior knowledge about manual operation time, algorithms of necessary path condition and expectation-maximization are used for structural learning and estimation of conditional probability distributions respectively. This study also applied Bayesian inference to evaluate the relationships between explanatory variables and manual operation time. With the empirical applications of this proposed forecasting model, approach of Bayesian networks demonstrates its practicability and prediction accountability.

Bayesian Regression with Network Prior: Optimal Bayesian Filtering Perspective

PubMed Central

Qian, Xiaoning; Dougherty, Edward R.

2017-01-01

The recently introduced intrinsically Bayesian robust filter (IBRF) provides fully optimal filtering relative to a prior distribution over an uncertainty class ofjoint random process models, whereas formerly the theory was limited to model-constrained Bayesian robust filters, for which optimization was limited to the filters that are optimal for models in the uncertainty class. This paper extends the IBRF theory to the situation where there are both a prior on the uncertainty class and sample data. The result is optimal Bayesian filtering (OBF), where optimality is relative to the posterior distribution derived from the prior and the data. The IBRF theories for effective characteristics and canonical expansions extend to the OBF setting. A salient focus of the present work is to demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian regression within the OBF setting over the classical Bayesian approach in the context otlinear Gaussian models. PMID:28824268

Genetic Algorithm-Based Motion Estimation Method using Orientations and EMGs for Robot Controls

PubMed Central

Chae, Jeongsook; Jin, Yong; Sung, Yunsick

2018-01-01

Demand for interactive wearable devices is rapidly increasing with the development of smart devices. To accurately utilize wearable devices for remote robot controls, limited data should be analyzed and utilized efficiently. For example, the motions by a wearable device, called Myo device, can be estimated by measuring its orientation, and calculating a Bayesian probability based on these orientation data. Given that Myo device can measure various types of data, the accuracy of its motion estimation can be increased by utilizing these additional types of data. This paper proposes a motion estimation method based on weighted Bayesian probability and concurrently measured data, orientations and electromyograms (EMG). The most probable motion among estimated is treated as a final estimated motion. Thus, recognition accuracy can be improved when compared to the traditional methods that employ only a single type of data. In our experiments, seven subjects perform five predefined motions. When orientation is measured by the traditional methods, the sum of the motion estimation errors is 37.3%; likewise, when only EMG data are used, the error in motion estimation by the proposed method was also 37.3%. The proposed combined method has an error of 25%. Therefore, the proposed method reduces motion estimation errors by 12%. PMID:29324641

A solution for two-dimensional mazes with use of chaotic dynamics in a recurrent neural network model.

PubMed

Suemitsu, Yoshikazu; Nara, Shigetoshi

2004-09-01

Chaotic dynamics introduced into a neural network model is applied to solving two-dimensional mazes, which are ill-posed problems. A moving object moves from the position at t to t + 1 by simply defined motion function calculated from firing patterns of the neural network model at each time step t. We have embedded several prototype attractors that correspond to the simple motion of the object orienting toward several directions in two-dimensional space in our neural network model. Introducing chaotic dynamics into the network gives outputs sampled from intermediate state points between embedded attractors in a state space, and these dynamics enable the object to move in various directions. System parameter switching between a chaotic and an attractor regime in the state space of the neural network enables the object to move to a set target in a two-dimensional maze. Results of computer simulations show that the success rate for this method over 300 trials is higher than that of random walk. To investigate why the proposed method gives better performance, we calculate and discuss statistical data with respect to dynamical structure.

The Lifecycle of Bayesian Network Models Developed for Multi-Source Signature Assessment of Nuclear Programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gastelum, Zoe N.; White, Amanda M.; Whitney, Paul D.

2013-06-04

The Multi-Source Signatures for Nuclear Programs project, part of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Signature Discovery Initiative, seeks to computationally capture expert assessment of multi-type information such as text, sensor output, imagery, or audio/video files, to assess nuclear activities through a series of Bayesian network (BN) models. These models incorporate knowledge from a diverse range of information sources in order to help assess a country’s nuclear activities. The models span engineering topic areas, state-level indicators, and facility-specific characteristics. To illustrate the development, calibration, and use of BN models for multi-source assessment, we present a model that predicts a country’s likelihoodmore » to participate in the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. We validate this model by examining the extent to which the model assists non-experts arrive at conclusions similar to those provided by nuclear proliferation experts. We also describe the PNNL-developed software used throughout the lifecycle of the Bayesian network model development.« less

Real-time prediction of acute cardiovascular events using hardware-implemented Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Tylman, Wojciech; Waszyrowski, Tomasz; Napieralski, Andrzej; Kamiński, Marek; Trafidło, Tamara; Kulesza, Zbigniew; Kotas, Rafał; Marciniak, Paweł; Tomala, Radosław; Wenerski, Maciej

2016-02-01

This paper presents a decision support system that aims to estimate a patient׳s general condition and detect situations which pose an immediate danger to the patient׳s health or life. The use of this system might be especially important in places such as accident and emergency departments or admission wards, where a small medical team has to take care of many patients in various general conditions. Particular stress is laid on cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions, including those leading to sudden cardiac arrest. The proposed system is a stand-alone microprocessor-based device that works in conjunction with a standard vital signs monitor, which provides input signals such as temperature, blood pressure, pulseoxymetry, ECG, and ICG. The signals are preprocessed and analysed by a set of artificial intelligence algorithms, the core of which is based on Bayesian networks. The paper focuses on the construction and evaluation of the Bayesian network, both its structure and numerical specification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of an internet based system for modeling biotin metabolism using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Zhou, Jinglei; Wang, Dong; Schlegel, Vicki; Zempleni, Janos

2011-11-01

Biotin is an essential water-soluble vitamin crucial for maintaining normal body functions. The importance of biotin for human health has been under-appreciated but there is plenty of opportunity for future research with great importance for human health. Currently, carrying out predictions of biotin metabolism involves tedious manual manipulations. In this paper, we report the development of BiotinNet, an internet based program that uses Bayesian networks to integrate published data on various aspects of biotin metabolism. Users can provide a combination of values on the levels of biotin related metabolites to obtain the predictions on other metabolites that are not specified. As an inherent feature of Bayesian networks, the uncertainty of the prediction is also quantified and reported to the user. This program enables convenient in silico experiments regarding biotin metabolism, which can help researchers design future experiments while new data can be continuously incorporated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Bayesian filtering and learning: a neuronal dynamics for perception.

PubMed

Kutschireiter, Anna; Surace, Simone Carlo; Sprekeler, Henning; Pfister, Jean-Pascal

2017-08-18

The robust estimation of dynamical hidden features, such as the position of prey, based on sensory inputs is one of the hallmarks of perception. This dynamical estimation can be rigorously formulated by nonlinear Bayesian filtering theory. Recent experimental and behavioral studies have shown that animals' performance in many tasks is consistent with such a Bayesian statistical interpretation. However, it is presently unclear how a nonlinear Bayesian filter can be efficiently implemented in a network of neurons that satisfies some minimum constraints of biological plausibility. Here, we propose the Neural Particle Filter (NPF), a sampling-based nonlinear Bayesian filter, which does not rely on importance weights. We show that this filter can be interpreted as the neuronal dynamics of a recurrently connected rate-based neural network receiving feed-forward input from sensory neurons. Further, it captures properties of temporal and multi-sensory integration that are crucial for perception, and it allows for online parameter learning with a maximum likelihood approach. The NPF holds the promise to avoid the 'curse of dimensionality', and we demonstrate numerically its capability to outperform weighted particle filters in higher dimensions and when the number of particles is limited.

Diagnosis and Prognostic of Wastewater Treatment System Based on Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Yang, Haizhen; Liang, XiaoFeng

2010-11-01

Wastewater treatment is a complicated and dynamic process. The treatment effect can be influenced by many variables in microbial, chemical and physical aspects. These variables are always uncertain. Due to the complex biological reaction mechanisms, the highly time-varying and multivariable aspects, the diagnosis and prognostic of wastewater treatment system are still difficult in practice. Bayesian network (BN) is one of the best methods for dealing with uncertainty in the artificial intelligence field. Because of the powerful inference ability and convenient decision mechanism, BN can be employed into the model description and influencing factor analysis of wastewater treatment system with great flexibility and applicability.In this paper, taking modified sequencing batch reactor (MSBR) as an analysis object, BN model was constructed according to the influent water quality, operational condition and effluent effect data of MSBR, and then a novel approach based on BN is proposed to analyze the influencing factors of the wastewater treatment system. The approach presented gives an effective tool for diagnosing and predicting analysis of the wastewater treatment system. On the basis of the influent water quality and operational condition, effluent effect can be predicted. Moreover, according to the effluent effect, the influent water quality and operational condition also can be deduced.

Technology Review of Multi-Agent Systems and Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-06-01

over a network, including the Internet. A web services architecture is the logical evolution of object-oriented analysis and design coupled with...the logical evolution of components geared towards the architecture, design, implementation, and deployment of e-business solutions. As in object...querying. The Web Services architecture describes the principles behind the next generation of e- business architectures, presenting a logical evolution

Feasibility of streamlining an interactive Bayesian-based diagnostic support tool designed for clinical practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Po-Hao; Botzolakis, Emmanuel; Mohan, Suyash; Bryan, R. N.; Cook, Tessa

2016-03-01

In radiology, diagnostic errors occur either through the failure of detection or incorrect interpretation. Errors are estimated to occur in 30-35% of all exams and contribute to 40-54% of medical malpractice litigations. In this work, we focus on reducing incorrect interpretation of known imaging features. Existing literature categorizes cognitive bias leading a radiologist to an incorrect diagnosis despite having correctly recognized the abnormal imaging features: anchoring bias, framing effect, availability bias, and premature closure. Computational methods make a unique contribution, as they do not exhibit the same cognitive biases as a human. Bayesian networks formalize the diagnostic process. They modify pre-test diagnostic probabilities using clinical and imaging features, arriving at a post-test probability for each possible diagnosis. To translate Bayesian networks to clinical practice, we implemented an entirely web-based open-source software tool. In this tool, the radiologist first selects a network of choice (e.g. basal ganglia). Then, large, clearly labeled buttons displaying salient imaging features are displayed on the screen serving both as a checklist and for input. As the radiologist inputs the value of an extracted imaging feature, the conditional probabilities of each possible diagnosis are updated. The software presents its level of diagnostic discrimination using a Pareto distribution chart, updated with each additional imaging feature. Active collaboration with the clinical radiologist is a feasible approach to software design and leads to design decisions closely coupling the complex mathematics of conditional probability in Bayesian networks with practice.

Models and simulation of 3D neuronal dendritic trees using Bayesian networks.

PubMed

López-Cruz, Pedro L; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro; Benavides-Piccione, Ruth; DeFelipe, Javier

2011-12-01

Neuron morphology is crucial for neuronal connectivity and brain information processing. Computational models are important tools for studying dendritic morphology and its role in brain function. We applied a class of probabilistic graphical models called Bayesian networks to generate virtual dendrites from layer III pyramidal neurons from three different regions of the neocortex of the mouse. A set of 41 morphological variables were measured from the 3D reconstructions of real dendrites and their probability distributions used in a machine learning algorithm to induce the model from the data. A simulation algorithm is also proposed to obtain new dendrites by sampling values from Bayesian networks. The main advantage of this approach is that it takes into account and automatically locates the relationships between variables in the data instead of using predefined dependencies. Therefore, the methodology can be applied to any neuronal class while at the same time exploiting class-specific properties. Also, a Bayesian network was defined for each part of the dendrite, allowing the relationships to change in the different sections and to model heterogeneous developmental factors or spatial influences. Several univariate statistical tests and a novel multivariate test based on Kullback-Leibler divergence estimation confirmed that virtual dendrites were similar to real ones. The analyses of the models showed relationships that conform to current neuroanatomical knowledge and support model correctness. At the same time, studying the relationships in the models can help to identify new interactions between variables related to dendritic morphology.

Sediment classification using neural networks: An example from the site-U1344A of IODP Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojha, Maheswar; Maiti, Saumen

2016-03-01

A novel approach based on the concept of Bayesian neural network (BNN) has been implemented for classifying sediment boundaries using downhole log data obtained during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea slope region. The Bayesian framework in conjunction with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)/hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) learning paradigm has been applied to constrain the lithology boundaries using density, density porosity, gamma ray, sonic P-wave velocity and electrical resistivity at the Hole U1344A. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of our supervised classification methodology by comparing our findings with a conventional neural network and a Bayesian neural network optimized by scaled conjugate gradient method (SCG), and tested the robustness of the algorithm in the presence of red noise in the data. The Bayesian results based on the HMC algorithm (BNN.HMC) resolve detailed finer structures at certain depths in addition to main lithology such as silty clay, diatom clayey silt and sandy silt. Our method also recovers the lithology information from a depth ranging between 615 and 655 m Wireline log Matched depth below Sea Floor of no core recovery zone. Our analyses demonstrate that the BNN based approach renders robust means for the classification of complex lithology successions at the Hole U1344A, which could be very useful for other studies and understanding the oceanic crustal inhomogeneity and structural discontinuities.

Identifying causal networks linking cancer processes and anti-tumor immunity using Bayesian network inference and metagene constructs.

PubMed

Kaiser, Jacob L; Bland, Cassidy L; Klinke, David J

2016-03-01

Cancer arises from a deregulation of both intracellular and intercellular networks that maintain system homeostasis. Identifying the architecture of these networks and how they are changed in cancer is a pre-requisite for designing drugs to restore homeostasis. Since intercellular networks only appear in intact systems, it is difficult to identify how these networks become altered in human cancer using many of the common experimental models. To overcome this, we used the diversity in normal and malignant human tissue samples from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database of human breast cancer to identify the topology associated with intercellular networks in vivo. To improve the underlying biological signals, we constructed Bayesian networks using metagene constructs, which represented groups of genes that are concomitantly associated with different immune and cancer states. We also used bootstrap resampling to establish the significance associated with the inferred networks. In short, we found opposing relationships between cell proliferation and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transformation (EMT) with regards to macrophage polarization. These results were consistent across multiple carcinomas in that proliferation was associated with a type 1 cell-mediated anti-tumor immune response and EMT was associated with a pro-tumor anti-inflammatory response. To address the identifiability of these networks from other datasets, we could identify the relationship between EMT and macrophage polarization with fewer samples when the Bayesian network was generated from malignant samples alone. However, the relationship between proliferation and macrophage polarization was identified with fewer samples when the samples were taken from a combination of the normal and malignant samples. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:470-479, 2016. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

Bayesian exponential random graph modelling of interhospital patient referral networks.

PubMed

Caimo, Alberto; Pallotti, Francesca; Lomi, Alessandro

2017-08-15

Using original data that we have collected on referral relations between 110 hospitals serving a large regional community, we show how recently derived Bayesian exponential random graph models may be adopted to illuminate core empirical issues in research on relational coordination among healthcare organisations. We show how a rigorous Bayesian computation approach supports a fully probabilistic analytical framework that alleviates well-known problems in the estimation of model parameters of exponential random graph models. We also show how the main structural features of interhospital patient referral networks that prior studies have described can be reproduced with accuracy by specifying the system of local dependencies that produce - but at the same time are induced by - decentralised collaborative arrangements between hospitals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Student Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaser, Tanja; Klingler, Severin; Schwing, Alexander G.; Gross, Markus

2017-01-01

Intelligent tutoring systems adapt the curriculum to the needs of the individual student. Therefore, an accurate representation and prediction of student knowledge is essential. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a popular approach for student modeling. The structure of BKT models, however, makes it impossible to represent the hierarchy and…

Directed area search using socio-biological vision algorithms and cognitive Bayesian reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medasani, S.; Owechko, Y.; Allen, D.; Lu, T. C.; Khosla, D.

2010-04-01

Volitional search systems that assist the analyst by searching for specific targets or objects such as vehicles, factories, airports, etc in wide area overhead imagery need to overcome multiple problems present in current manual and automatic approaches. These problems include finding targets hidden in terabytes of information, relatively few pixels on targets, long intervals between interesting regions, time consuming analysis requiring many analysts, no a priori representative examples or templates of interest, detecting multiple classes of objects, and the need for very high detection rates and very low false alarm rates. This paper describes a conceptual analyst-centric framework that utilizes existing technology modules to search and locate occurrences of targets of interest (e.g., buildings, mobile targets of military significance, factories, nuclear plants, etc.), from video imagery of large areas. Our framework takes simple queries from the analyst and finds the queried targets with relatively minimum interaction from the analyst. It uses a hybrid approach that combines biologically inspired bottom up attention, socio-biologically inspired object recognition for volitionally recognizing targets, and hierarchical Bayesian networks for modeling and representing the domain knowledge. This approach has the benefits of high accuracy, low false alarm rate and can handle both low-level visual information and high-level domain knowledge in a single framework. Such a system would be of immense help for search and rescue efforts, intelligence gathering, change detection systems, and other surveillance systems.

Planetary micro-rover operations on Mars using a Bayesian framework for inference and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Mark A.; Li, Junquan; Quine, Brendan M.

2016-03-01

With the recent progress toward the application of commercially-available hardware to small-scale space missions, it is now becoming feasible for groups of small, efficient robots based on low-power embedded hardware to perform simple tasks on other planets in the place of large-scale, heavy and expensive robots. In this paper, we describe design and programming of the Beaver micro-rover developed for Northern Light, a Canadian initiative to send a small lander and rover to Mars to study the Martian surface and subsurface. For a small, hardware-limited rover to handle an uncertain and mostly unknown environment without constant management by human operators, we use a Bayesian network of discrete random variables as an abstraction of expert knowledge about the rover and its environment, and inference operations for control. A framework for efficient construction and inference into a Bayesian network using only the C language and fixed-point mathematics on embedded hardware has been developed for the Beaver to make intelligent decisions with minimal sensor data. We study the performance of the Beaver as it probabilistically maps a simple outdoor environment with sensor models that include uncertainty. Results indicate that the Beaver and other small and simple robotic platforms can make use of a Bayesian network to make intelligent decisions in uncertain planetary environments.

Network-based Modeling of Mesoscale Catchments - The Hydrology Perspective of Glowa-danube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.; Escher-Vetter, H.; Hennicker, R.; Mauser, W.; Niemeyer, S.; Reichstein, M.; Tenhunen, J.

Within the GLOWA initiative of the German Ministry for Research and Educa- tion (BMBF), the project GLOWA-Danube is funded to establish a transdisciplinary network-based decision support tool for water related issues in the Upper Danube wa- tershed. It aims to develop and validate integration techniques, integrated models and integrated monitoring procedures and to implement them in the network-based De- cision Support System DANUBIA. An accurate description of processes involved in energy, water and matter fluxes and turnovers requires an intense collaboration and exchange of water related expertise of different scientific disciplines. DANUBIA is conceived as a distributed expert network and is developed on the basis of re-useable, refineable, and documented sub-models. In order to synthesize a common understand- ing between the project partners, a standardized notation of parameters and functions and a platform-independent structure of computational methods and interfaces has been established using the Unified Modeling Language UML. DANUBIA is object- oriented, spatially distributed and raster-based at its core. It applies the concept of "proxels" (Process Pixel) as its basic object, which has different dimensions depend- ing on the viewing scale and connects to its environment through fluxes. The presented study excerpts the hydrological view point of GLOWA-Danube, its approach of model coupling and network based communication (using the Remote Method Invocation RMI), the object-oriented technology to simulate physical processes and interactions at the land surface and the methodology to treat the issue of spatial and temporal scal- ing in large, heterogeneous catchments. The mechanisms applied to communicate data and model parameters across the typical discipline borders will be demonstrated from the perspective of a land-surface object, which comprises the capabilities of interde- pendent expert models for snowmelt, soil water movement, runoff formation, plant growth and radiation balance in a distributed JAVA-based modeling environment. The coupling to the adjacent physical objects of atmosphere, groundwater and river net- work will also be addressed.

Detection of fraudulent financial statements using the hybrid data mining approach.

PubMed

Chen, Suduan

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to construct a valid and rigorous fraudulent financial statement detection model. The research objects are companies which experienced both fraudulent and non-fraudulent financial statements between the years 2002 and 2013. In the first stage, two decision tree algorithms, including the classification and regression trees (CART) and the Chi squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) are applied in the selection of major variables. The second stage combines CART, CHAID, Bayesian belief network, support vector machine and artificial neural network in order to construct fraudulent financial statement detection models. According to the results, the detection performance of the CHAID-CART model is the most effective, with an overall accuracy of 87.97 % (the FFS detection accuracy is 92.69 %).

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Bayesian Inference for Source Term Estimation: Application to the International Monitoring System Radionuclide Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

de l’exactitude et de la précision), comparativement au modèle de mesure plus simple qui n’utilise pas de multiplicateurs. Importance pour la défense...3) Bayesian experimental design for receptor placement in order to maximize the expected information in the measured concen- tration data for...applications of the Bayesian inferential methodology for source recon- struction have used high-quality concentration data from well- designed atmospheric

Bayesian quantification of sensory reweighting in a familial bilateral vestibular disorder (DFNA9).

PubMed

Alberts, Bart B G T; Selen, Luc P J; Verhagen, Wim I M; Pennings, Ronald J E; Medendorp, W Pieter

2018-03-01

DFNA9 is a rare progressive autosomal dominantly inherited vestibulo-cochlear disorder, resulting in a homogeneous group of patients with hearing impairment and bilateral vestibular function loss. These patients suffer from a deteriorated sense of spatial orientation, leading to balance problems in darkness, especially on irregular surfaces. Both behavioral and functional imaging studies suggest that the remaining sensory cues could compensate for the loss of vestibular information. A thorough model-based quantification of this reweighting in individual patients is, however, missing. Here we psychometrically examined the individual patient's sensory reweighting of these cues after complete vestibular loss. We asked a group of DFNA9 patients and healthy control subjects to judge the orientation (clockwise or counterclockwise relative to gravity) of a rod presented within an oriented square frame (rod-in-frame task) in three different head-on-body tilt conditions. Our results show a cyclical frame-induced bias in perceived gravity direction across a 90° range of frame orientations. The magnitude of this bias was significantly increased in the patients compared with the healthy control subjects. Response variability, which increased with head-on-body tilt, was also larger for the patients. Reverse engineering of the underlying signal properties, using Bayesian inference principles, suggests a reweighting of sensory signals, with an increase in visual weight of 20-40% in the patients. Our approach of combining psychophysics and Bayesian reverse engineering is the first to quantify the weights associated with the different sensory modalities at an individual patient level, which could make it possible to develop personal rehabilitation programs based on the patient's sensory weight distribution. NEW & NOTEWORTHY It has been suggested that patients with vestibular deficits can compensate for this loss by increasing reliance on other sensory cues, although an actual quantification of this reweighting is lacking. We combine experimental psychophysics with a reverse engineering approach based on Bayesian inference principles to quantify sensory reweighting in individual vestibular patients. We discuss the suitability of this approach for developing personal rehabilitation programs based on the patient's sensory weight distribution.

Bayesian Inference of Natural Rankings in Incomplete Competition Networks

PubMed Central

Park, Juyong; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2014-01-01

Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking among the constituent parts from the strongest to the weakest – essential in determining reward and penalty – is frequently an ambiguous task due to the incomplete (partially filled) nature of competition networks. Here we introduce the “Natural Ranking,” an unambiguous ranking method applicable to a round robin tournament, and formulate an analytical model based on the Bayesian formula for inferring the expected mean and error of the natural ranking of nodes from an incomplete network. We investigate its potential and uses in resolving important issues of ranking by applying it to real-world competition networks. PMID:25163528

Bayesian Inference of Natural Rankings in Incomplete Competition Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Juyong; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2014-08-01

Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking among the constituent parts from the strongest to the weakest - essential in determining reward and penalty - is frequently an ambiguous task due to the incomplete (partially filled) nature of competition networks. Here we introduce the ``Natural Ranking,'' an unambiguous ranking method applicable to a round robin tournament, and formulate an analytical model based on the Bayesian formula for inferring the expected mean and error of the natural ranking of nodes from an incomplete network. We investigate its potential and uses in resolving important issues of ranking by applying it to real-world competition networks.

A Bayesian network model for predicting pregnancy after in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Corani, G; Magli, C; Giusti, A; Gianaroli, L; Gambardella, L M

2013-11-01

We present a Bayesian network model for predicting the outcome of in vitro fertilization (IVF). The problem is characterized by a particular missingness process; we propose a simple but effective averaging approach which improves parameter estimates compared to the traditional MAP estimation. We present results with generated data and the analysis of a real data set. Moreover, we assess by means of a simulation study the effectiveness of the model in supporting the selection of the embryos to be transferred. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Drug delivery optimization through Bayesian networks.

PubMed Central

Bellazzi, R.

1992-01-01

This paper describes how Bayesian Networks can be used in combination with compartmental models to plan Recombinant Human Erythropoietin (r-HuEPO) delivery in the treatment of anemia of chronic uremic patients. Past measurements of hematocrit or hemoglobin concentration in a patient during the therapy can be exploited to adjust the parameters of a compartmental model of the erythropoiesis. This adaptive process allows more accurate patient-specific predictions, and hence a more rational dosage planning. We describe a drug delivery optimization protocol, based on our approach. Some results obtained on real data are presented. PMID:1482938

Perception of the dynamic visual vertical during sinusoidal linear motion.

PubMed

Pomante, A; Selen, L P J; Medendorp, W P

2017-10-01

The vestibular system provides information for spatial orientation. However, this information is ambiguous: because the otoliths sense the gravitoinertial force, they cannot distinguish gravitational and inertial components. As a consequence, prolonged linear acceleration of the head can be interpreted as tilt, referred to as the somatogravic effect. Previous modeling work suggests that the brain disambiguates the otolith signal according to the rules of Bayesian inference, combining noisy canal cues with the a priori assumption that prolonged linear accelerations are unlikely. Within this modeling framework the noise of the vestibular signals affects the dynamic characteristics of the tilt percept during linear whole-body motion. To test this prediction, we devised a novel paradigm to psychometrically characterize the dynamic visual vertical-as a proxy for the tilt percept-during passive sinusoidal linear motion along the interaural axis (0.33 Hz motion frequency, 1.75 m/s 2 peak acceleration, 80 cm displacement). While subjects ( n =10) kept fixation on a central body-fixed light, a line was briefly flashed (5 ms) at different phases of the motion, the orientation of which had to be judged relative to gravity. Consistent with the model's prediction, subjects showed a phase-dependent modulation of the dynamic visual vertical, with a subject-specific phase shift with respect to the imposed acceleration signal. The magnitude of this modulation was smaller than predicted, suggesting a contribution of nonvestibular signals to the dynamic visual vertical. Despite their dampening effect, our findings may point to a link between the noise components in the vestibular system and the characteristics of dynamic visual vertical. NEW & NOTEWORTHY A fundamental question in neuroscience is how the brain processes vestibular signals to infer the orientation of the body and objects in space. We show that, under sinusoidal linear motion, systematic error patterns appear in the disambiguation of linear acceleration and spatial orientation. We discuss the dynamics of these illusory percepts in terms of a dynamic Bayesian model that combines uncertainty in the vestibular signals with priors based on the natural statistics of head motion. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

The Persistence of Presentism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hargreaves, Andy; Shirley, Dennis

2009-01-01

Background/Context: This study draws on the voluminous research on teachers' workplace orientations and especially on Dan Lortie's documentation of conservatism, individualism, and presentism among teachers. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study: This study investigated a school reform network of over 300 secondary schools entitled…

Inferring gene and protein interactions using PubMed citations and consensus Bayesian networks.

PubMed

Deeter, Anthony; Dalman, Mark; Haddad, Joseph; Duan, Zhong-Hui

2017-01-01

The PubMed database offers an extensive set of publication data that can be useful, yet inherently complex to use without automated computational techniques. Data repositories such as the Genomic Data Commons (GDC) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) offer experimental data storage and retrieval as well as curated gene expression profiles. Genetic interaction databases, including Reactome and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, offer pathway and experiment data analysis using data curated from these publications and data repositories. We have created a method to generate and analyze consensus networks, inferring potential gene interactions, using large numbers of Bayesian networks generated by data mining publications in the PubMed database. Through the concept of network resolution, these consensus networks can be tailored to represent possible genetic interactions. We designed a set of experiments to confirm that our method is stable across variation in both sample and topological input sizes. Using gene product interactions from the KEGG pathway database and data mining PubMed publication abstracts, we verify that regardless of the network resolution or the inferred consensus network, our method is capable of inferring meaningful gene interactions through consensus Bayesian network generation with multiple, randomized topological orderings. Our method can not only confirm the existence of currently accepted interactions, but has the potential to hypothesize new ones as well. We show our method confirms the existence of known gene interactions such as JAK-STAT-PI3K-AKT-mTOR, infers novel gene interactions such as RAS- Bcl-2 and RAS-AKT, and found significant pathway-pathway interactions between the JAK-STAT signaling and Cardiac Muscle Contraction KEGG pathways.

Bayesian Network Webserver: a comprehensive tool for biological network modeling.

PubMed

Ziebarth, Jesse D; Bhattacharya, Anindya; Cui, Yan

2013-11-01

The Bayesian Network Webserver (BNW) is a platform for comprehensive network modeling of systems genetics and other biological datasets. It allows users to quickly and seamlessly upload a dataset, learn the structure of the network model that best explains the data and use the model to understand relationships between network variables. Many datasets, including those used to create genetic network models, contain both discrete (e.g. genotype) and continuous (e.g. gene expression traits) variables, and BNW allows for modeling hybrid datasets. Users of BNW can incorporate prior knowledge during structure learning through an easy-to-use structural constraint interface. After structure learning, users are immediately presented with an interactive network model, which can be used to make testable hypotheses about network relationships. BNW, including a downloadable structure learning package, is available at http://compbio.uthsc.edu/BNW. (The BNW interface for adding structural constraints uses HTML5 features that are not supported by current version of Internet Explorer. We suggest using other browsers (e.g. Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox) when accessing BNW). ycui2@uthsc.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

A Bayesian observer replicates convexity context effects in figure-ground perception.

PubMed

Goldreich, Daniel; Peterson, Mary A

2012-01-01

Peterson and Salvagio (2008) demonstrated convexity context effects in figure-ground perception. Subjects shown displays consisting of unfamiliar alternating convex and concave regions identified the convex regions as foreground objects progressively more frequently as the number of regions increased; this occurred only when the concave regions were homogeneously colored. The origins of these effects have been unclear. Here, we present a two-free-parameter Bayesian observer that replicates convexity context effects. The Bayesian observer incorporates two plausible expectations regarding three-dimensional scenes: (1) objects tend to be convex rather than concave, and (2) backgrounds tend (more than foreground objects) to be homogeneously colored. The Bayesian observer estimates the probability that a depicted scene is three-dimensional, and that the convex regions are figures. It responds stochastically by sampling from its posterior distributions. Like human observers, the Bayesian observer shows convexity context effects only for images with homogeneously colored concave regions. With optimal parameter settings, it performs similarly to the average human subject on the four display types tested. We propose that object convexity and background color homogeneity are environmental regularities exploited by human visual perception; vision achieves figure-ground perception by interpreting ambiguous images in light of these and other expected regularities in natural scenes.

Multiple utility constrained multi-objective programs using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasian, Pooneh; Mahdavi-Amiri, Nezam; Fazlollahtabar, Hamed

2018-03-01

A utility function is an important tool for representing a DM's preference. We adjoin utility functions to multi-objective optimization problems. In current studies, usually one utility function is used for each objective function. Situations may arise for a goal to have multiple utility functions. Here, we consider a constrained multi-objective problem with each objective having multiple utility functions. We induce the probability of the utilities for each objective function using Bayesian theory. Illustrative examples considering dependence and independence of variables are worked through to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Predicting motor vehicle collisions using Bayesian neural network models: an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Xie, Yuanchang; Lord, Dominique; Zhang, Yunlong

2007-09-01

Statistical models have frequently been used in highway safety studies. They can be utilized for various purposes, including establishing relationships between variables, screening covariates and predicting values. Generalized linear models (GLM) and hierarchical Bayes models (HBM) have been the most common types of model favored by transportation safety analysts. Over the last few years, researchers have proposed the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model for modeling the phenomenon under study. Compared to GLMs and HBMs, BPNNs have received much less attention in highway safety modeling. The reasons are attributed to the complexity for estimating this kind of model as well as the problem related to "over-fitting" the data. To circumvent the latter problem, some statisticians have proposed the use of Bayesian neural network (BNN) models. These models have been shown to perform better than BPNN models while at the same time reducing the difficulty associated with over-fitting the data. The objective of this study is to evaluate the application of BNN models for predicting motor vehicle crashes. To accomplish this objective, a series of models was estimated using data collected on rural frontage roads in Texas. Three types of models were compared: BPNN, BNN and the negative binomial (NB) regression models. The results of this study show that in general both types of neural network models perform better than the NB regression model in terms of data prediction. Although the BPNN model can occasionally provide better or approximately equivalent prediction performance compared to the BNN model, in most cases its prediction performance is worse than the BNN model. In addition, the data fitting performance of the BPNN model is consistently worse than the BNN model, which suggests that the BNN model has better generalization abilities than the BPNN model and can effectively alleviate the over-fitting problem without significantly compromising the nonlinear approximation ability. The results also show that BNNs could be used for other useful analyses in highway safety, including the development of accident modification factors and for improving the prediction capabilities for evaluating different highway design alternatives.

Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Xiaoliang; An, Haizhong; Sun, Xiaoqi; Huang, Xuan; Gao, Xiangyun

2016-04-01

The globalization and regionalization of crude oil trade inevitably give rise to the difference of crude oil prices. The understanding of the pattern of the crude oil prices' mutual propagation is essential for analyzing the development of global oil trade. Previous research has focused mainly on the fuzzy long- or short-term one-to-one propagation of bivariate oil prices, generally ignoring various patterns of periodical multivariate propagation. This study presents a wavelet-based network approach to help uncover the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices in a joint time-frequency period. The weekly oil spot prices of the OPEC member states from June 1999 to March 2011 are adopted as the sample data. First, we used wavelet analysis to find different subseries based on an optimal decomposing scale to describe the periodical feature of the original oil price time series. Second, a complex network model was constructed based on an optimal threshold selection to describe the structural feature of multivariable oil prices. Third, Bayesian network analysis (BNA) was conducted to find the probability causal relationship based on periodical structural features to describe the various patterns of periodical multivariable propagation. Finally, the significance of the leading and intermediary oil prices is discussed. These findings are beneficial for the implementation of periodical target-oriented pricing policies and investment strategies.

Learning Negotiation Policies Using IB3 and Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalepa, Gislaine M.; Ávila, Bráulio C.; Enembreck, Fabrício; Scalabrin, Edson E.

This paper presents an intelligent offer policy in a negotiation environment, in which each agent involved learns the preferences of its opponent in order to improve its own performance. Each agent must also be able to detect drifts in the opponent's preferences so as to quickly adjust itself to their new offer policy. For this purpose, two simple learning techniques were first evaluated: (i) based on instances (IB3) and (ii) based on Bayesian Networks. Additionally, as its known that in theory group learning produces better results than individual/single learning, the efficiency of IB3 and Bayesian classifier groups were also analyzed. Finally, each decision model was evaluated in moments of concept drift, being the drift gradual, moderate or abrupt. Results showed that both groups of classifiers were able to effectively detect drifts in the opponent's preferences.

An object-oriented framework for distributed hydrologic and geomorphic modeling using triangulated irregular networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, Gregory E.; Lancaster, Stephen T.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Bras, Rafael L.; Rybarczyk, Scott M.

2001-10-01

We describe a new set of data structures and algorithms for dynamic terrain modeling using a triangulated irregular network (TINs). The framework provides an efficient method for storing, accessing, and updating a Delaunay triangulation and its associated Voronoi diagram. The basic data structure consists of three interconnected data objects: triangles, nodes, and directed edges. Encapsulating each of these geometric elements within a data object makes it possible to essentially decouple the TIN representation from the modeling applications that make use of it. Both the triangulation and its corresponding Voronoi diagram can be rapidly retrieved or updated, making these methods well suited to adaptive remeshing schemes. We develop a set of algorithms for defining drainage networks and identifying closed depressions (e.g., lakes) for hydrologic and geomorphic modeling applications. We also outline simple numerical algorithms for solving network routing and 2D transport equations within the TIN framework. The methods are illustrated with two example applications, a landscape evolution model and a distributed rainfall-runoff model.

Flight dynamics software in a distributed network environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeletic, J.; Weidow, D.; Boland, D.

1995-01-01

As with all NASA facilities, the announcement of reduced budgets, reduced staffing, and the desire to implement smaller/quicker/cheaper missions has required the Agency's organizations to become more efficient in what they do. To accomplish these objectives, the FDD has initiated the development of the Flight Dynamics Distributed System (FDDS). The underlying philosophy of FDDS is to build an integrated system that breaks down the traditional barriers of attitude, mission planning, and navigation support software to provide a uniform approach to flight dynamics applications. Through the application of open systems concepts and state-of-the-art technologies, including object-oriented specification concepts, object-oriented software, and common user interface, communications, data management, and executive services, the FDD will reengineer most of its six million lines of code.

DYNAMICS OF EXTRACELLULAR SIGNAL-REGULATED KINASE (ERK) ACTIVATION IN DEVELOPING CEREBELLAR GRANULE CELLS (CGC): A SYSTEMS BIOLOGY-ORIENTED STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study was to 1) characterize the dynamics of ERK activation in response to BDNF and NMDA; 2) use computational models to promote understanding of the signaling network underlying ERK activation.

Simulation and Gaming: Directions, Issues, Ponderables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Uretsky, Michael

1995-01-01

Discusses the current use of simulation and gaming in a variety of settings. Describes advances in technology that facilitate the use of simulation and gaming, including computer power, computer networks, software, object-oriented programming, video, multimedia, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence. Considers the future use of simulation…

Measuring Learning Progressions Using Bayesian Modeling in Complex Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rutstein, Daisy Wise

2012-01-01

This research examines issues regarding model estimation and robustness in the use of Bayesian Inference Networks (BINs) for measuring Learning Progressions (LPs). It provides background information on LPs and how they might be used in practice. Two simulation studies are performed, along with real data examples. The first study examines the case…

A Bayesian approach to evaluating habitat for woodland caribou in north-central British Columbia.

Treesearch

R.S. McNay; B.G. Marcot; V. Brumovsky; R. Ellis

2006-01-01

Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are in decline throughout much of their range. With increasing development of caribou habitat, tools are required to make management decisions to support effective conservation of caribou and their range. We developed a series of Bayesian belief networks to evaluate conservation policy...

Bayesian networks for satellite payload testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Przytula, Krzysztof W.; Hagen, Frank; Yung, Kar

1999-11-01

Satellite payloads are fast increasing in complexity, resulting in commensurate growth in cost of manufacturing and operation. A need exists for a software tool, which would assist engineers in production and operation of satellite systems. We have designed and implemented a software tool, which performs part of this task. The tool aids a test engineer in debugging satellite payloads during system testing. At this stage of satellite integration and testing both the tested payload and the testing equipment represent complicated systems consisting of a very large number of components and devices. When an error is detected during execution of a test procedure, the tool presents to the engineer a ranked list of potential sources of the error and a list of recommended further tests. The engineer decides this on this basis if to perform some of the recommended additional test or replace the suspect component. The tool has been installed in payload testing facility. The tool is based on Bayesian networks, a graphical method of representing uncertainty in terms of probabilistic influences. The Bayesian network was configured using detailed flow diagrams of testing procedures and block diagrams of the payload and testing hardware. The conditional and prior probability values were initially obtained from experts and refined in later stages of design. The Bayesian network provided a very informative model of the payload and testing equipment and inspired many new ideas regarding the future test procedures and testing equipment configurations. The tool is the first step in developing a family of tools for various phases of satellite integration and operation.

Constructing a Bayesian network model for improving safety behavior of employees at workplaces.

PubMed

Mohammadfam, Iraj; Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas

2017-01-01

Unsafe behavior increases the risk of accident at workplaces and needs to be managed properly. The aim of the present study was to provide a model for managing and improving safety behavior of employees using the Bayesian networks approach. The study was conducted in several power plant construction projects in Iran. The data were collected using a questionnaire composed of nine factors, including management commitment, supporting environment, safety management system, employees' participation, safety knowledge, safety attitude, motivation, resource allocation, and work pressure. In order for measuring the score of each factor assigned by a responder, a measurement model was constructed for each of them. The Bayesian network was constructed using experts' opinions and Dempster-Shafer theory. Using belief updating, the best intervention strategies for improving safety behavior also were selected. The result of the present study demonstrated that the majority of employees do not tend to consider safety rules, regulation, procedures and norms in their behavior at the workplace. Safety attitude, safety knowledge, and supporting environment were the best predictor of safety behavior. Moreover, it was determined that instantaneous improvement of supporting environment and employee participation is the best strategy to reach a high proportion of safety behavior at the workplace. The lack of a comprehensive model that can be used for explaining safety behavior was one of the most problematic issues of the study. Furthermore, it can be concluded that belief updating is a unique feature of Bayesian networks that is very useful in comparing various intervention strategies and selecting the best one form them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specificity of V1-V2 Orientation Networks in the Primate Visual Cortex

PubMed Central

Roe, Anna W.; Ts'o, Daniel Y.

2015-01-01

The computation of texture and shape involves integration of features of various orientations. Orientation networks within V1 tend to involve cells which share similar orientation selectivity. However, emergent properties in V2 require the integration of multiple orientations. We now show that, unlike interactions within V1, V1-V2 orientation interactions are much less synchronized and are not necessarily orientation dependent. We find V1-V2 orientation networks are of two types: a more tightly synchronized, orientation-preserving network and a less synchronized orientation-diverse network. We suggest that such diversity of V1-V2 interactions underlies the spatial and functional integration required for computation of higher order contour and shape in V2. PMID:26314798

Network-Based Analysis of Software Change Propagation

PubMed Central

Wang, Rongcun; Qu, Binbin

2014-01-01

The object-oriented software systems frequently evolve to meet new change requirements. Understanding the characteristics of changes aids testers and system designers to improve the quality of softwares. Identifying important modules becomes a key issue in the process of evolution. In this context, a novel network-based approach is proposed to comprehensively investigate change distributions and the correlation between centrality measures and the scope of change propagation. First, software dependency networks are constructed at class level. And then, the number of times of cochanges among classes is minded from software repositories. According to the dependency relationships and the number of times of cochanges among classes, the scope of change propagation is calculated. Using Spearman rank correlation analyzes the correlation between centrality measures and the scope of change propagation. Three case studies on java open source software projects Findbugs, Hibernate, and Spring are conducted to research the characteristics of change propagation. Experimental results show that (i) change distribution is very uneven; (ii) PageRank, Degree, and CIRank are significantly correlated to the scope of change propagation. Particularly, CIRank shows higher correlation coefficient, which suggests it can be a more useful indicator for measuring the scope of change propagation of classes in object-oriented software system. PMID:24790557

Network-based analysis of software change propagation.

PubMed

Wang, Rongcun; Huang, Rubing; Qu, Binbin

2014-01-01

The object-oriented software systems frequently evolve to meet new change requirements. Understanding the characteristics of changes aids testers and system designers to improve the quality of softwares. Identifying important modules becomes a key issue in the process of evolution. In this context, a novel network-based approach is proposed to comprehensively investigate change distributions and the correlation between centrality measures and the scope of change propagation. First, software dependency networks are constructed at class level. And then, the number of times of cochanges among classes is minded from software repositories. According to the dependency relationships and the number of times of cochanges among classes, the scope of change propagation is calculated. Using Spearman rank correlation analyzes the correlation between centrality measures and the scope of change propagation. Three case studies on java open source software projects Findbugs, Hibernate, and Spring are conducted to research the characteristics of change propagation. Experimental results show that (i) change distribution is very uneven; (ii) PageRank, Degree, and CIRank are significantly correlated to the scope of change propagation. Particularly, CIRank shows higher correlation coefficient, which suggests it can be a more useful indicator for measuring the scope of change propagation of classes in object-oriented software system.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Procedure for Two-Mode Cluster Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeSarbo, Wayne S.; Fong, Duncan K. H.; Liechty, John; Saxton, M. Kim

2004-01-01

This manuscript introduces a new Bayesian finite mixture methodology for the joint clustering of row and column stimuli/objects associated with two-mode asymmetric proximity, dominance, or profile data. That is, common clusters are derived which partition both the row and column stimuli/objects simultaneously into the same derived set of clusters.…

Quantum Graphical Models and Belief Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leifer, M.S.; Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, 31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo Ont., N2L 2Y5; Poulin, D.

Belief Propagation algorithms acting on Graphical Models of classical probability distributions, such as Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks, are amongst the most powerful known methods for deriving probabilistic inferences amongst large numbers of random variables. This paper presents a generalization of these concepts and methods to the quantum case, based on the idea that quantum theory can be thought of as a noncommutative, operator-valued, generalization of classical probability theory. Some novel characterizations of quantum conditional independence are derived, and definitions of Quantum n-Bifactor Networks, Markov Networks, Factor Graphs and Bayesian Networks are proposed. The structure of Quantum Markovmore » Networks is investigated and some partial characterization results are obtained, along the lines of the Hammersley-Clifford theorem. A Quantum Belief Propagation algorithm is presented and is shown to converge on 1-Bifactor Networks and Markov Networks when the underlying graph is a tree. The use of Quantum Belief Propagation as a heuristic algorithm in cases where it is not known to converge is discussed. Applications to decoding quantum error correcting codes and to the simulation of many-body quantum systems are described.« less

Functional Interaction Network Construction and Analysis for Disease Discovery.

PubMed

Wu, Guanming; Haw, Robin

2017-01-01

Network-based approaches project seemingly unrelated genes or proteins onto a large-scale network context, therefore providing a holistic visualization and analysis platform for genomic data generated from high-throughput experiments, reducing the dimensionality of data via using network modules and increasing the statistic analysis power. Based on the Reactome database, the most popular and comprehensive open-source biological pathway knowledgebase, we have developed a highly reliable protein functional interaction network covering around 60 % of total human genes and an app called ReactomeFIViz for Cytoscape, the most popular biological network visualization and analysis platform. In this chapter, we describe the detailed procedures on how this functional interaction network is constructed by integrating multiple external data sources, extracting functional interactions from human curated pathway databases, building a machine learning classifier called a Naïve Bayesian Classifier, predicting interactions based on the trained Naïve Bayesian Classifier, and finally constructing the functional interaction database. We also provide an example on how to use ReactomeFIViz for performing network-based data analysis for a list of genes.

Bayesian Analysis for Exponential Random Graph Models Using the Adaptive Exchange Sampler.

PubMed

Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Liang, Faming

2013-10-01

Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy issues encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency.

Negative Affect, Decision Making, and Attentional Networks.

PubMed

Ortega, Ana Raquel; Ramírez, Encarnación; Colmenero, José María; García-Viedma, Ma Del Rosario

2017-02-01

This study focuses on whether risk avoidance in decision making depends on negative affect or it is specific to anxious individuals. The Balloon Analogue Risk Task was used to obtain an objective measure in a risk situation with anxious, depressive, and control individuals. The role of attentional networks was also studied using the Attentional Network Test-Interaction (ANT-I) task with neutral stimuli. A significant difference was observed between anxious and depressive individuals in assumed risk in decision making. We found no differences between anxious and normal individuals in the alert, orientation, and congruency effects obtained in the ANT-I task. The results showed that there was no significant relationship between the risk avoidance and the indexes of alertness, orienting, and control. Future research shall determine whether emotionally relevant stimulation leads to attentional control deficit or whether differences between anxious and no anxious individuals are due to the type of strategy followed in choice tasks.

Modeling relief.

PubMed

Sumner, Walton; Xu, Jin Zhong; Roussel, Guy; Hagen, Michael D

2007-10-11

The American Board of Family Medicine deployed virtual patient simulations in 2004 to evaluate Diplomates' diagnostic and management skills. A previously reported dynamic process generates general symptom histories from time series data representing baseline values and reactions to medications. The simulator also must answer queries about details such as palliation and provocation. These responses often describe some recurring pattern, such as, "this medicine relieves my symptoms in a few minutes." The simulator can provide a detail stored as text, or it can evaluate a reference to a second query object. The second query object can generate details using a single Bayesian network to evaluate the effect of each drug in a virtual patient's medication list. A new medication option may not require redesign of the second query object if its implementation is consistent with related drugs. We expect this mechanism to maintain realistic responses to detail questions in complex simulations.

Experimental design and Bayesian networks for enhancement of delta-endotoxin production by Bacillus thuringiensis.

PubMed

Ennouri, Karim; Ayed, Rayda Ben; Hassen, Hanen Ben; Mazzarello, Maura; Ottaviani, Ennio

2015-12-01

Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is a Gram-positive bacterium. The entomopathogenic activity of Bt is related to the existence of the crystal consisting of protoxins, also called delta-endotoxins. In order to optimize and explain the production of delta-endotoxins of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, we studied seven medium components: soybean meal, starch, KH₂PO₄, K₂HPO₄, FeSO₄, MnSO₄, and MgSO₄and their relationships with the concentration of delta-endotoxins using an experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) and Bayesian networks modelling. The effects of the ingredients of the culture medium on delta-endotoxins production were estimated. The developed model showed that different medium components are important for the Bacillus thuringiensis fermentation. The most important factors influenced the production of delta-endotoxins are FeSO₄, K2HPO₄, starch and soybean meal. Indeed, it was found that soybean meal, K₂HPO₄, KH₂PO₄and starch also showed positive effect on the delta-endotoxins production. However, FeSO4 and MnSO4 expressed opposite effect. The developed model, based on Bayesian techniques, can automatically learn emerging models in data to serve in the prediction of delta-endotoxins concentrations. The constructed model in the present study implies that experimental design (Plackett-Burman design) joined with Bayesian networks method could be used for identification of effect variables on delta-endotoxins variation.

Predicting Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Clades Using Knowledge-Based Bayesian Networks

PubMed Central

Bennett, Kristin P.

2014-01-01

We develop a novel approach for incorporating expert rules into Bayesian networks for classification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) clades. The proposed knowledge-based Bayesian network (KBBN) treats sets of expert rules as prior distributions on the classes. Unlike prior knowledge-based support vector machine approaches which require rules expressed as polyhedral sets, KBBN directly incorporates the rules without any modification. KBBN uses data to refine rule-based classifiers when the rule set is incomplete or ambiguous. We develop a predictive KBBN model for 69 MTBC clades found in the SITVIT international collection. We validate the approach using two testbeds that model knowledge of the MTBC obtained from two different experts and large DNA fingerprint databases to predict MTBC genetic clades and sublineages. These models represent strains of MTBC using high-throughput biomarkers called spacer oligonucleotide types (spoligotypes), since these are routinely gathered from MTBC isolates of tuberculosis (TB) patients. Results show that incorporating rules into problems can drastically increase classification accuracy if data alone are insufficient. The SITVIT KBBN is publicly available for use on the World Wide Web. PMID:24864238

Pathway analysis of high-throughput biological data within a Bayesian network framework.

PubMed

Isci, Senol; Ozturk, Cengizhan; Jones, Jon; Otu, Hasan H

2011-06-15

Most current approaches to high-throughput biological data (HTBD) analysis either perform individual gene/protein analysis or, gene/protein set enrichment analysis for a list of biologically relevant molecules. Bayesian Networks (BNs) capture linear and non-linear interactions, handle stochastic events accounting for noise, and focus on local interactions, which can be related to causal inference. Here, we describe for the first time an algorithm that models biological pathways as BNs and identifies pathways that best explain given HTBD by scoring fitness of each network. Proposed method takes into account the connectivity and relatedness between nodes of the pathway through factoring pathway topology in its model. Our simulations using synthetic data demonstrated robustness of our approach. We tested proposed method, Bayesian Pathway Analysis (BPA), on human microarray data regarding renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and compared our results with gene set enrichment analysis. BPA was able to find broader and more specific pathways related to RCC. Accompanying BPA software (BPAS) package is freely available for academic use at http://bumil.boun.edu.tr/bpa.

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network

PubMed Central

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-01

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. PMID:26761006

Intelligent Condition Diagnosis Method Based on Adaptive Statistic Test Filter and Diagnostic Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Zhang, Qiuju; Wang, Kun; Chen, Peng; Wang, Huaqing

2016-01-08

A new fault diagnosis method for rotating machinery based on adaptive statistic test filter (ASTF) and Diagnostic Bayesian Network (DBN) is presented in this paper. ASTF is proposed to obtain weak fault features under background noise, ASTF is based on statistic hypothesis testing in the frequency domain to evaluate similarity between reference signal (noise signal) and original signal, and remove the component of high similarity. The optimal level of significance α is obtained using particle swarm optimization (PSO). To evaluate the performance of the ASTF, evaluation factor Ipq is also defined. In addition, a simulation experiment is designed to verify the effectiveness and robustness of ASTF. A sensitive evaluation method using principal component analysis (PCA) is proposed to evaluate the sensitiveness of symptom parameters (SPs) for condition diagnosis. By this way, the good SPs that have high sensitiveness for condition diagnosis can be selected. A three-layer DBN is developed to identify condition of rotation machinery based on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) theory. Condition diagnosis experiment for rolling element bearings demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Using robust Bayesian network to estimate the residuals of fluoroquinolone antibiotic in soil.

PubMed

Li, Xuewen; Xie, Yunfeng; Li, Lianfa; Yang, Xunfeng; Wang, Ning; Wang, Jinfeng

2015-11-01

Prediction of antibiotic pollution and its consequences is difficult, due to the uncertainties and complexities associated with multiple related factors. This article employed domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) model to assess fluoroquinolone antibiotic (FQs) pollution in the soil of an intensive vegetable cultivation area. The results show: (1) The relationships between FQs pollution and contributory factors: Three factors (cultivation methods, crop rotations, and chicken manure types) were consistently identified as predictors in the topological structures of three FQs, indicating their importance in FQs pollution; deduced with domain knowledge, the cultivation methods are determined by the crop rotations, which require different nutrients (derived from the manure) according to different plant biomass. (2) The performance of BN model: The integrative robust Bayesian network model achieved the highest detection probability (pd) of high-risk and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area, since it incorporates domain knowledge and model uncertainty. Our encouraging findings have implications for the use of BN as a robust approach to assessment of FQs pollution and for informing decisions on appropriate remedial measures.

A Bayesian network approach to knowledge integration and representation of farm irrigation: 1. Model development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Haines, C. L.

2009-02-01

Irrigation is important to many agricultural businesses but also has implications for catchment health. A considerable body of knowledge exists on how irrigation management affects farm business and catchment health. However, this knowledge is fragmentary; is available in many forms such as qualitative and quantitative; is dispersed in scientific literature, technical reports, and the minds of individuals; and is of varying degrees of certainty. Bayesian networks allow the integration of dispersed knowledge into quantitative systems models. This study describes the development, validation, and application of a Bayesian network model of farm irrigation in the Shepparton Irrigation Region of northern Victoria, Australia. In this first paper we describe the process used to integrate a range of sources of knowledge to develop a model of farm irrigation. We describe the principal model components and summarize the reaction to the model and its development process by local stakeholders. Subsequent papers in this series describe model validation and the application of the model to assess the regional impact of historical and future management intervention.

Hierarchical image feature extraction by an irregular pyramid of polygonal partitions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skurikhin, Alexei N

2008-01-01

We present an algorithmic framework for hierarchical image segmentation and feature extraction. We build a successive fine-to-coarse hierarchy of irregular polygonal partitions of the original image. This multiscale hierarchy forms the basis for object-oriented image analysis. The framework incorporates the Gestalt principles of visual perception, such as proximity and closure, and exploits spectral and textural similarities of polygonal partitions, while iteratively grouping them until dissimilarity criteria are exceeded. Seed polygons are built upon a triangular mesh composed of irregular sized triangles, whose spatial arrangement is adapted to the image content. This is achieved by building the triangular mesh on themore » top of detected spectral discontinuities (such as edges), which form a network of constraints for the Delaunay triangulation. The image is then represented as a spatial network in the form of a graph with vertices corresponding to the polygonal partitions and edges reflecting their relations. The iterative agglomeration of partitions into object-oriented segments is formulated as Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) construction. An important characteristic of the approach is that the agglomeration of polygonal partitions is constrained by the detected edges; thus the shapes of agglomerated partitions are more likely to correspond to the outlines of real-world objects. The constructed partitions and their spatial relations are characterized using spectral, textural and structural features based on proximity graphs. The framework allows searching for object-oriented features of interest across multiple levels of details of the built hierarchy and can be generalized to the multi-criteria MST to account for multiple criteria important for an application.« less

BIAS: Bioinformatics Integrated Application Software.

PubMed

Finak, G; Godin, N; Hallett, M; Pepin, F; Rajabi, Z; Srivastava, V; Tang, Z

2005-04-15

We introduce a development platform especially tailored to Bioinformatics research and software development. BIAS (Bioinformatics Integrated Application Software) provides the tools necessary for carrying out integrative Bioinformatics research requiring multiple datasets and analysis tools. It follows an object-relational strategy for providing persistent objects, allows third-party tools to be easily incorporated within the system and supports standards and data-exchange protocols common to Bioinformatics. BIAS is an OpenSource project and is freely available to all interested users at http://www.mcb.mcgill.ca/~bias/. This website also contains a paper containing a more detailed description of BIAS and a sample implementation of a Bayesian network approach for the simultaneous prediction of gene regulation events and of mRNA expression from combinations of gene regulation events. hallett@mcb.mcgill.ca.

Evaluation of a Partial Genome Screening of Two Asthma Susceptibility Regions Using Bayesian Network Based Bayesian Multilevel Analysis of Relevance

PubMed Central

Antal, Péter; Kiszel, Petra Sz.; Gézsi, András; Hadadi, Éva; Virág, Viktor; Hajós, Gergely; Millinghoffer, András; Nagy, Adrienne; Kiss, András; Semsei, Ágnes F.; Temesi, Gergely; Melegh, Béla; Kisfali, Péter; Széll, Márta; Bikov, András; Gálffy, Gabriella; Tamási, Lilla; Falus, András; Szalai, Csaba

2012-01-01

Genetic studies indicate high number of potential factors related to asthma. Based on earlier linkage analyses we selected the 11q13 and 14q22 asthma susceptibility regions, for which we designed a partial genome screening study using 145 SNPs in 1201 individuals (436 asthmatic children and 765 controls). The results were evaluated with traditional frequentist methods and we applied a new statistical method, called Bayesian network based Bayesian multilevel analysis of relevance (BN-BMLA). This method uses Bayesian network representation to provide detailed characterization of the relevance of factors, such as joint significance, the type of dependency, and multi-target aspects. We estimated posteriors for these relations within the Bayesian statistical framework, in order to estimate the posteriors whether a variable is directly relevant or its association is only mediated. With frequentist methods one SNP (rs3751464 in the FRMD6 gene) provided evidence for an association with asthma (OR = 1.43(1.2–1.8); p = 3×10−4). The possible role of the FRMD6 gene in asthma was also confirmed in an animal model and human asthmatics. In the BN-BMLA analysis altogether 5 SNPs in 4 genes were found relevant in connection with asthma phenotype: PRPF19 on chromosome 11, and FRMD6, PTGER2 and PTGDR on chromosome 14. In a subsequent step a partial dataset containing rhinitis and further clinical parameters was used, which allowed the analysis of relevance of SNPs for asthma and multiple targets. These analyses suggested that SNPs in the AHNAK and MS4A2 genes were indirectly associated with asthma. This paper indicates that BN-BMLA explores the relevant factors more comprehensively than traditional statistical methods and extends the scope of strong relevance based methods to include partial relevance, global characterization of relevance and multi-target relevance. PMID:22432035

Determining fast orientation changes of multi-spectral line cameras from the primary images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlfeil, Jürgen

2012-01-01

Fast orientation changes of airborne and spaceborne line cameras cannot always be avoided. In such cases it is essential to measure them with high accuracy to ensure a good quality of the resulting imagery products. Several approaches exist to support the orientation measurement by using optical information received through the main objective/telescope. In this article an approach is proposed that allows the determination of non-systematic orientation changes between every captured line. It does not require any additional camera hardware or onboard processing capabilities but the payload images and a rough estimate of the camera's trajectory. The approach takes advantage of the typical geometry of multi-spectral line cameras with a set of linear sensor arrays for different spectral bands on the focal plane. First, homologous points are detected within the heavily distorted images of different spectral bands. With their help a connected network of geometrical correspondences can be built up. This network is used to calculate the orientation changes of the camera with the temporal and angular resolution of the camera. The approach was tested with an extensive set of aerial surveys covering a wide range of different conditions and achieved precise and reliable results.

Analysis of the Bayesian Cramér-Rao lower bound in astrometry. Studying the impact of prior information in the location of an object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echeverria, Alex; Silva, Jorge F.; Mendez, Rene A.; Orchard, Marcos

2016-10-01

Context. The best precision that can be achieved to estimate the location of a stellar-like object is a topic of permanent interest in the astrometric community. Aims: We analyze bounds for the best position estimation of a stellar-like object on a CCD detector array in a Bayesian setting where the position is unknown, but where we have access to a prior distribution. In contrast to a parametric setting where we estimate a parameter from observations, the Bayesian approach estimates a random object (I.e., the position is a random variable) from observations that are statistically dependent on the position. Methods: We characterize the Bayesian Cramér-Rao (CR) that bounds the minimum mean square error (MMSE) of the best estimator of the position of a point source on a linear CCD-like detector, as a function of the properties of detector, the source, and the background. Results: We quantify and analyze the increase in astrometric performance from the use of a prior distribution of the object position, which is not available in the classical parametric setting. This gain is shown to be significant for various observational regimes, in particular in the case of faint objects or when the observations are taken under poor conditions. Furthermore, we present numerical evidence that the MMSE estimator of this problem tightly achieves the Bayesian CR bound. This is a remarkable result, demonstrating that all the performance gains presented in our analysis can be achieved with the MMSE estimator. Conclusions: The Bayesian CR bound can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected maximum positional precision of a set of astrometric measurements in which prior information can be incorporated. This bound can be achieved through the conditional mean estimator, in contrast to the parametric case where no unbiased estimator precisely reaches the CR bound.

Utilizing OODB schema modeling for vocabulary management.

PubMed Central

Gu, H.; Cimino, J. J.; Halper, M.; Geller, J.; Perl, Y.

1996-01-01

Comprehension of complex controlled vocabularies is often difficult. We present a method, facilitated by an object-oriented database, for depicting such a vocabulary (the Medical Entities Dictionary (MED) from the Columbia-Presbyterian Medical Center) in a schematic way which uses a sparse inheritance network of area classes. The resulting Object Oriented Health Vocabulary repository (OOHVR) allows visualization of the 43,000 MED concepts as 90 area classes. This view has provided valuable information to those responsible with maintaining the MED. As a result, the MED organization has been improved and some previously-unrecognized errors and inconsistencies have been removed. We believe that this schematic approach allows improved comprehension of the gestalt of large controlled medical vocabulary. PMID:8947671

Assessment of groundwater quality: a fusion of geochemical and geophysical information via Bayesian neural networks.

PubMed

Maiti, Saumen; Erram, V C; Gupta, Gautam; Tiwari, Ram Krishna; Kulkarni, U D; Sangpal, R R

2013-04-01

Deplorable quality of groundwater arising from saltwater intrusion, natural leaching and anthropogenic activities is one of the major concerns for the society. Assessment of groundwater quality is, therefore, a primary objective of scientific research. Here, we propose an artificial neural network-based method set in a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework and employ it to assess groundwater quality. The approach is based on analyzing 36 water samples and inverting up to 85 Schlumberger vertical electrical sounding data. We constructed a priori model by suitably parameterizing geochemical and geophysical data collected from the western part of India. The posterior model (post-inversion) was estimated using the BNN learning procedure and global hybrid Monte Carlo/Markov Chain Monte Carlo optimization scheme. By suitable parameterization of geochemical and geophysical parameters, we simulated 1,500 training samples, out of which 50 % samples were used for training and remaining 50 % were used for validation and testing. We show that the trained model is able to classify validation and test samples with 85 % and 80 % accuracy respectively. Based on cross-correlation analysis and Gibb's diagram of geochemical attributes, the groundwater qualities of the study area were classified into following three categories: "Very good", "Good", and "Unsuitable". The BNN model-based results suggest that groundwater quality falls mostly in the range of "Good" to "Very good" except for some places near the Arabian Sea. The new modeling results powered by uncertainty and statistical analyses would provide useful constrain, which could be utilized in monitoring and assessment of the groundwater quality.

A Framework for Assessing Feasibility of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Project Sites : Research Brief

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-09-01

This research answers the question: How can a transit agency choose among alternative TOD locations within a transit network? The ultimate objective of the research is to develop a decision support framework which can be used by transit agencies when...

Behavior Analysis and the Quest for Machine Intelligence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Kenneth R.; Hutchison, William R.

1993-01-01

Discusses three approaches to building intelligent systems: artificial intelligence, neural networks, and behavior analysis. BANKET, an object-oriented software system, is explained; a commercial application of BANKET is described; and a collaborative effort between the academic and business communities for the use of BANKET is discussed.…

Developing Multimedia Courseware for the Internet's Java versus Shockwave.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Majchrzak, Tina L.

1996-01-01

Describes and compares two methods for developing multimedia courseware for use on the Internet: an authoring tool called Shockwave, and an object-oriented language called Java. Topics include vector graphics, browsers, interaction with network protocols, data security, multithreading, and computer languages versus development environments. (LRW)

Exploiting Data Missingness in Bayesian Network Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues de Morais, Sérgio; Aussem, Alex

This paper proposes a framework built on the use of Bayesian networks (BN) for representing statistical dependencies between the existing random variables and additional dummy boolean variables, which represent the presence/absence of the respective random variable value. We show how augmenting the BN with these additional variables helps pinpoint the mechanism through which missing data contributes to the classification task. The missing data mechanism is thus explicitly taken into account to predict the class variable using the data at hand. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world incomplete data sets reveals that the missingness information improves classification accuracy.

Inferring gene and protein interactions using PubMed citations and consensus Bayesian networks

PubMed Central

Dalman, Mark; Haddad, Joseph; Duan, Zhong-Hui

2017-01-01

The PubMed database offers an extensive set of publication data that can be useful, yet inherently complex to use without automated computational techniques. Data repositories such as the Genomic Data Commons (GDC) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) offer experimental data storage and retrieval as well as curated gene expression profiles. Genetic interaction databases, including Reactome and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis, offer pathway and experiment data analysis using data curated from these publications and data repositories. We have created a method to generate and analyze consensus networks, inferring potential gene interactions, using large numbers of Bayesian networks generated by data mining publications in the PubMed database. Through the concept of network resolution, these consensus networks can be tailored to represent possible genetic interactions. We designed a set of experiments to confirm that our method is stable across variation in both sample and topological input sizes. Using gene product interactions from the KEGG pathway database and data mining PubMed publication abstracts, we verify that regardless of the network resolution or the inferred consensus network, our method is capable of inferring meaningful gene interactions through consensus Bayesian network generation with multiple, randomized topological orderings. Our method can not only confirm the existence of currently accepted interactions, but has the potential to hypothesize new ones as well. We show our method confirms the existence of known gene interactions such as JAK-STAT-PI3K-AKT-mTOR, infers novel gene interactions such as RAS- Bcl-2 and RAS-AKT, and found significant pathway-pathway interactions between the JAK-STAT signaling and Cardiac Muscle Contraction KEGG pathways. PMID:29049295

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Using Bayesian Nonparametric Regression and Topology Information.

PubMed

Fan, Yue; Wang, Xiao; Peng, Qinke

2017-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) play an important role in cellular systems and are important for understanding biological processes. Many algorithms have been developed to infer the GRNs. However, most algorithms only pay attention to the gene expression data but do not consider the topology information in their inference process, while incorporating this information can partially compensate for the lack of reliable expression data. Here we develop a Bayesian group lasso with spike and slab priors to perform gene selection and estimation for nonparametric models. B-spline basis functions are used to capture the nonlinear relationships flexibly and penalties are used to avoid overfitting. Further, we incorporate the topology information into the Bayesian method as a prior. We present the application of our method on DREAM3 and DREAM4 datasets and two real biological datasets. The results show that our method performs better than existing methods and the topology information prior can improve the result.

Forensic Signature Detection of Yersinia Pestis Culturing Practices Across Institutions Using a Bayesian Network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Corley, Courtney D.; McCue, Lee Ann

The field of bioforensics is focused on the analysis of evidence from a biocrime. Existing laboratory analyses can identify the specific strain of an organism in the evidence, as well signatures of the specific culture batch of organisms, such as low-frequency contaminants or indicators of growth and processing methods. To link these disparate types of physical data to potential suspects, investigators may need to identify institutions or individuals whose access to strains and culturing practices match those identified from the evidence. In this work we present a Bayesian statistical network to fuse different types of analytical measurements that predict themore » production environment of a Yersinia pestis sample under investigation with automated test processing of scientific publications to identify institutions with a history of growing Y. pestis under similar conditions. Furthermore, the textual and experimental signatures were evaluated recursively to determine the overall sensitivity of the network across all levels of false positives. We illustrate that institutions associated with several specific culturing practices can be accurately selected based on the experimental signature from only a few analytical measurements. These findings demonstrate that similar Bayesian networks can be generated generically for many organisms of interest and their deployment is not prohibitive due to either computational or experimental factors.« less

Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong

2015-12-01

Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is ‘stationarity’, and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.

Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

PubMed Central

Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

2016-01-01

In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios. PMID:26858669

Bayesian learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Denning, Peter J.

1989-01-01

In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

Effect of Bayesian Student Modeling on Academic Achievement in Foreign Language Teaching (University Level English Preparatory School Example)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aslan, Burak Galip; Öztürk, Özlem; Inceoglu, Mustafa Murat

2014-01-01

Considering the increasing importance of adaptive approaches in CALL systems, this study implemented a machine learning based student modeling middleware with Bayesian networks. The profiling approach of the student modeling system is based on Felder and Silverman's Learning Styles Model and Felder and Soloman's Index of Learning Styles…

Bayes' theorem application in the measure information diagnostic value assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orzechowski, Piotr D.; Makal, Jaroslaw; Nazarkiewicz, Andrzej

2006-03-01

The paper presents Bayesian method application in the measure information diagnostic value assessment that is used in the computer-aided diagnosis system. The computer system described here has been created basing on the Bayesian Network and is used in Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia (BPH) diagnosis. The graphic diagnostic model enables to juxtapose experts' knowledge with data.

A Bayesian Alternative for Multi-objective Ecohydrological Model Specification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Ajami, H.

2015-12-01

Process-based ecohydrological models combine the study of hydrological, physical, biogeochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, which are usually more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological framework. In our study, a formal Bayesian approach is implemented in an ecohydrological model which combines a hydrological model (HyMOD) and a dynamic vegetation model (DVM). Simulations focused on one objective likelihood (Streamflow/LAI) and multi-objective likelihoods (Streamflow and LAI) with different weights are compared. Uniform, weakly informative and strongly informative prior distributions are used in different simulations. The Kullback-leibler divergence (KLD) is used to measure the dis(similarity) between different priors and corresponding posterior distributions to examine the parameter sensitivity. Results show that different prior distributions can strongly influence posterior distributions for parameters, especially when the available data is limited or parameters are insensitive to the available data. We demonstrate differences in optimized parameters and uncertainty limits in different cases based on multi-objective likelihoods vs. single objective likelihoods. We also demonstrate the importance of appropriately defining the weights of objectives in multi-objective calibration according to different data types.

Towards a portal and search engine to facilitate academic and research collaboration in engineering and education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla Villarreal, Isaura Nathaly

While international academic and research collaborations are of great importance at this time, it is not easy to find researchers in the engineering field that publish in languages other than English. Because of this disconnect, there exists a need for a portal to find Who's Who in Engineering Education in the Americas. The objective of this thesis is to built an object-oriented architecture for this proposed portal. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) model developed in this thesis incorporates the basic structure of a social network for academic purposes. Reverse engineering of three social networks portals yielded important aspects of their structures that have been incorporated in the proposed UML model. Furthermore, the present work includes a pattern for academic social networks..

Quantifying structural uncertainty on fault networks using a marked point process within a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, Orhun; Caers, Jef Karel

2017-08-01

Faults are one of the building-blocks for subsurface modeling studies. Incomplete observations of subsurface fault networks lead to uncertainty pertaining to location, geometry and existence of faults. In practice, gaps in incomplete fault network observations are filled based on tectonic knowledge and interpreter's intuition pertaining to fault relationships. Modeling fault network uncertainty with realistic models that represent tectonic knowledge is still a challenge. Although methods that address specific sources of fault network uncertainty and complexities of fault modeling exists, a unifying framework is still lacking. In this paper, we propose a rigorous approach to quantify fault network uncertainty. Fault pattern and intensity information are expressed by means of a marked point process, marked Strauss point process. Fault network information is constrained to fault surface observations (complete or partial) within a Bayesian framework. A structural prior model is defined to quantitatively express fault patterns, geometries and relationships within the Bayesian framework. Structural relationships between faults, in particular fault abutting relations, are represented with a level-set based approach. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler is used to sample posterior fault network realizations that reflect tectonic knowledge and honor fault observations. We apply the methodology to a field study from Nankai Trough & Kumano Basin. The target for uncertainty quantification is a deep site with attenuated seismic data with only partially visible faults and many faults missing from the survey or interpretation. A structural prior model is built from shallow analog sites that are believed to have undergone similar tectonics compared to the site of study. Fault network uncertainty for the field is quantified with fault network realizations that are conditioned to structural rules, tectonic information and partially observed fault surfaces. We show the proposed methodology generates realistic fault network models conditioned to data and a conceptual model of the underlying tectonics.

A Bayesian Approach for Image Segmentation with Shape Priors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Hang; Yang, Qing; Parvin, Bahram

2008-06-20

Color and texture have been widely used in image segmentation; however, their performance is often hindered by scene ambiguities, overlapping objects, or missingparts. In this paper, we propose an interactive image segmentation approach with shape prior models within a Bayesian framework. Interactive features, through mouse strokes, reduce ambiguities, and the incorporation of shape priors enhances quality of the segmentation where color and/or texture are not solely adequate. The novelties of our approach are in (i) formulating the segmentation problem in a well-de?ned Bayesian framework with multiple shape priors, (ii) ef?ciently estimating parameters of the Bayesian model, and (iii) multi-object segmentationmore » through user-speci?ed priors. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a set of natural and synthetic images.« less

Constructing of Research-Oriented Learning Mode Based on Network Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ying; Li, Bing; Xie, Bai-zhi

2007-01-01

Research-oriented learning mode that based on network is significant to cultivate comprehensive-developing innovative person with network teaching in education for all-around development. This paper establishes a research-oriented learning mode by aiming at the problems existing in research-oriented learning based on network environment, and…

Object-Oriented Control System Design Using On-Line Training of Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubaai, Ahmed

1997-01-01

This report deals with the object-oriented model development of a neuro-controller design for permanent magnet (PM) dc motor drives. The system under study is described as a collection of interacting objects. Each object module describes the object behaviors, called methods. The characteristics of the object are included in its variables. The knowledge of the object exists within its variables, and the performance is determined by its methods. This structure maps well to the real world objects that comprise the system being modeled. A dynamic learning architecture that possesses the capabilities of simultaneous on-line identification and control is incorporated to enforce constraints on connections and control the dynamics of the motor. The control action is implemented "on-line", in "real time" in such a way that the predicted trajectory follows a specified reference model. A design example of controlling a PM dc motor drive on-line shows the effectiveness of the design tool. This will therefore be very useful in aerospace applications. It is expected to provide an innovative and noval software model for the rocket engine numerical simulator executive.

Statistical modelling of networked human-automation performance using working memory capacity.

PubMed

Ahmed, Nisar; de Visser, Ewart; Shaw, Tyler; Mohamed-Ameen, Amira; Campbell, Mark; Parasuraman, Raja

2014-01-01

This study examines the challenging problem of modelling the interaction between individual attentional limitations and decision-making performance in networked human-automation system tasks. Analysis of real experimental data from a task involving networked supervision of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles by human participants shows that both task load and network message quality affect performance, but that these effects are modulated by individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. These insights were used to assess three statistical approaches for modelling and making predictions with real experimental networked supervisory performance data: classical linear regression, non-parametric Gaussian processes and probabilistic Bayesian networks. It is shown that each of these approaches can help designers of networked human-automated systems cope with various uncertainties in order to accommodate future users by linking expected operating conditions and performance from real experimental data to observable cognitive traits like WM capacity. Practitioner Summary: Working memory (WM) capacity helps account for inter-individual variability in operator performance in networked unmanned aerial vehicle supervisory tasks. This is useful for reliable performance prediction near experimental conditions via linear models; robust statistical prediction beyond experimental conditions via Gaussian process models and probabilistic inference about unknown task conditions/WM capacities via Bayesian network models.

Advanced functional network analysis in the geosciences: The pyunicorn package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, Jonathan F.; Heitzig, Jobst; Runge, Jakob; Schultz, Hanna C. H.; Wiedermann, Marc; Zech, Alraune; Feldhoff, Jan; Rheinwalt, Aljoscha; Kutza, Hannes; Radebach, Alexander; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2013-04-01

Functional networks are a powerful tool for analyzing large geoscientific datasets such as global fields of climate time series originating from observations or model simulations. pyunicorn (pythonic unified complex network and recurrence analysis toolbox) is an open-source, fully object-oriented and easily parallelizable package written in the language Python. It allows for constructing functional networks (aka climate networks) representing the structure of statistical interrelationships in large datasets and, subsequently, investigating this structure using advanced methods of complex network theory such as measures for networks of interacting networks, node-weighted statistics or network surrogates. Additionally, pyunicorn allows to study the complex dynamics of geoscientific systems as recorded by time series by means of recurrence networks and visibility graphs. The range of possible applications of the package is outlined drawing on several examples from climatology.

Objected-oriented remote sensing image classification method based on geographic ontology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Z.; Liu, Z. J.; Gu, H. Y.

2016-11-01

Nowadays, with the development of high resolution remote sensing image and the wide application of laser point cloud data, proceeding objected-oriented remote sensing classification based on the characteristic knowledge of multi-source spatial data has been an important trend on the field of remote sensing image classification, which gradually replaced the traditional method through improving algorithm to optimize image classification results. For this purpose, the paper puts forward a remote sensing image classification method that uses the he characteristic knowledge of multi-source spatial data to build the geographic ontology semantic network model, and carries out the objected-oriented classification experiment to implement urban features classification, the experiment uses protégé software which is developed by Stanford University in the United States, and intelligent image analysis software—eCognition software as the experiment platform, uses hyperspectral image and Lidar data that is obtained through flight in DaFeng City of JiangSu as the main data source, first of all, the experiment uses hyperspectral image to obtain feature knowledge of remote sensing image and related special index, the second, the experiment uses Lidar data to generate nDSM(Normalized DSM, Normalized Digital Surface Model),obtaining elevation information, the last, the experiment bases image feature knowledge, special index and elevation information to build the geographic ontology semantic network model that implement urban features classification, the experiment results show that, this method is significantly higher than the traditional classification algorithm on classification accuracy, especially it performs more evidently on the respect of building classification. The method not only considers the advantage of multi-source spatial data, for example, remote sensing image, Lidar data and so on, but also realizes multi-source spatial data knowledge integration and application of the knowledge to the field of remote sensing image classification, which provides an effective way for objected-oriented remote sensing image classification in the future.

The Competitive Edge: Expanded Access Drives Vendors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pepin, Theresa; And Others

1997-01-01

This report analyzes data gathered from 29 automated library system vendors who responded to a 1996 survey. The survey also requested their perceptions of Java (an object-oriented programming language) and network computers, and issues and trends to be considered by library administrators. Contact information about the vendors is provided. (Four…

MOOs for Teaching and Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Furst-Bowe, Julie

1996-01-01

Discusses the use of MOOs (Multi-User Dimension/Dungeon Object Oriented), text-based virtual reality environments, in education. Highlights include connecting to a network; exploring several MOOs to determine which is most appropriate; and familiarizing students with the MOO's interaction and behavior policies, as well as how to operate in the…

Is Bayesian Estimation Proper for Estimating the Individual's Ability? Research Report 80-3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

The effect of prior information in Bayesian estimation is considered, mainly from the standpoint of objective testing. In the estimation of a parameter belonging to an individual, the prior information is, in most cases, the density function of the population to which the individual belongs. Bayesian estimation was compared with maximum likelihood…

Transfer and persistence of non-self DNA on hands over time: Using empirical data to evaluate DNA evidence given activity level propositions.

PubMed

Szkuta, Bianca; Ballantyne, Kaye N; Kokshoorn, Bas; van Oorschot, Roland A H

2018-03-01

Questions relating to how DNA from an individual got to where it was recovered from and the activities associated with its pickup, retention and deposition are increasingly relevant to criminal investigations and judicial considerations. To address activity level propositions, investigators are typically required to assess the likelihood that DNA was transferred indirectly and not deposited through direct contact with an item or surface. By constructing a series of Bayesian networks, we demonstrate their use in assessing activity level propositions derived from a recent legal case involving the alleged secondary transfer of DNA to a surface following a handshaking event. In the absence of data required to perform the assessment, a set of handshaking simulations were performed to obtain probabilities on the persistence of non-self DNA on the hands following a 40min, 5h or 8h delay between the handshake and contact with the final surface (an axe handle). Variables such as time elapsed, and the activities performed and objects contacted between the handshake and contact with the axe handle, were also considered when assessing the DNA results. DNA from a known contributor was transferred to the right hand of an opposing hand-shaker (as a depositor), and could be subsequently transferred to, and detected on, a surface contacted by the depositor 40min to 5h post-handshake. No non-self DNA from the known contributor was detected in deposits made 8h post-handshake. DNA from the depositor was generally detected as the major or only contributor in the profiles generated. Contributions from the known contributor were minor, decreasing in presence and in the strength of support for inclusion as the time between the handshake and transfer event increased. The construction of a series of Bayesian networks based on the case circumstances provided empirical estimations of the likelihood of direct or indirect deposition. The analyses and conclusions presented demonstrate both the complexity of activity level assessments concerning DNA evidence, and the power of Bayesian networks to visualise and explore the issues of interest for a given case. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian network analysis revealed the connectivity difference of the default mode network from the resting-state to task-state

PubMed Central

Wu, Xia; Yu, Xinyu; Yao, Li; Li, Rui

2014-01-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have converged to reveal the default mode network (DMN), a constellation of regions that display co-activation during resting-state but co-deactivation during attention-demanding tasks in the brain. Here, we employed a Bayesian network (BN) analysis method to construct a directed effective connectivity model of the DMN and compared the organizational architecture and interregional directed connections under both resting-state and task-state. The analysis results indicated that the DMN was consistently organized into two closely interacting subsystems in both resting-state and task-state. The directed connections between DMN regions, however, changed significantly from the resting-state to task-state condition. The results suggest that the DMN intrinsically maintains a relatively stable structure whether at rest or performing tasks but has different information processing mechanisms under varied states. PMID:25309414

Discovering complex interrelationships between socioeconomic status and health in Europe: A case study applying Bayesian Networks.

PubMed

Alvarez-Galvez, Javier

2016-03-01

Studies assume that socioeconomic status determines individuals' states of health, but how does health determine socioeconomic status? And how does this association vary depending on contextual differences? To answer this question, our study uses an additive Bayesian Networks model to explain the interrelationships between health and socioeconomic determinants using complex and messy data. This model has been used to find the most probable structure in a network to describe the interdependence of these factors in five European welfare state regimes. The advantage of this study is that it offers a specific picture to describe the complex interrelationship between socioeconomic determinants and health, producing a network that is controlled by socio-demographic factors such as gender and age. The present work provides a general framework to describe and understand the complex association between socioeconomic determinants and health. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariable and Bayesian Network Analysis of Outcome Predictors in Acute Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Review of a Pure Surgical Series in the Post-International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial Era.

PubMed

Zador, Zsolt; Huang, Wendy; Sperrin, Matthew; Lawton, Michael T

2018-06-01

Following the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT), evolving treatment modalities for acute aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) has changed the case mix of patients undergoing urgent surgical clipping. To update our knowledge on outcome predictors by analyzing admission parameters in a pure surgical series using variable importance ranking and machine learning. We reviewed a single surgeon's case series of 226 patients suffering from aSAH treated with urgent surgical clipping. Predictions were made using logistic regression models, and predictive performance was assessed using areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC). We established variable importance ranking using partial Nagelkerke R2 scores. Probabilistic associations between variables were depicted using Bayesian networks, a method of machine learning. Importance ranking showed that World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade and age were the most influential outcome prognosticators. Inclusion of only these 2 predictors was sufficient to maintain model performance compared to when all variables were considered (AUC = 0.8222, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7646-0.88 vs 0.8218, 95% CI: 0.7616-0.8821, respectively, DeLong's P = .992). Bayesian networks showed that age and WFNS grade were associated with several variables such as laboratory results and cardiorespiratory parameters. Our study is the first to report early outcomes and formal predictor importance ranking following aSAH in a post-ISAT surgical case series. Models showed good predictive power with fewer relevant predictors than in similar size series. Bayesian networks proved to be a powerful tool in visualizing the widespread association of the 2 key predictors with admission variables, explaining their importance and demonstrating the potential for hypothesis generation.

Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pejic, Michael

Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

A program for the Bayesian Neural Network in the ROOT framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Jiahang; Huang, Run-Sheng; Lee, Shih-Chang

2011-12-01

We present a Bayesian Neural Network algorithm implemented in the TMVA package (Hoecker et al., 2007 [1]), within the ROOT framework (Brun and Rademakers, 1997 [2]). Comparing to the conventional utilization of Neural Network as discriminator, this new implementation has more advantages as a non-parametric regression tool, particularly for fitting probabilities. It provides functionalities including cost function selection, complexity control and uncertainty estimation. An example of such application in High Energy Physics is shown. The algorithm is available with ROOT release later than 5.29. Program summaryProgram title: TMVA-BNN Catalogue identifier: AEJX_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJX_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: BSD license No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 5094 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1,320,987 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Computer: Any computer system or cluster with C++ compiler and UNIX-like operating system Operating system: Most UNIX/Linux systems. The application programs were thoroughly tested under Fedora and Scientific Linux CERN. Classification: 11.9 External routines: ROOT package version 5.29 or higher ( http://root.cern.ch) Nature of problem: Non-parametric fitting of multivariate distributions Solution method: An implementation of Neural Network following the Bayesian statistical interpretation. Uses Laplace approximation for the Bayesian marginalizations. Provides the functionalities of automatic complexity control and uncertainty estimation. Running time: Time consumption for the training depends substantially on the size of input sample, the NN topology, the number of training iterations, etc. For the example in this manuscript, about 7 min was used on a PC/Linux with 2.0 GHz processors.

Rearrangement moves on rooted phylogenetic networks

PubMed Central

Gambette, Philippe; van Iersel, Leo; Jones, Mark; Scornavacca, Celine

2017-01-01

Phylogenetic tree reconstruction is usually done by local search heuristics that explore the space of the possible tree topologies via simple rearrangements of their structure. Tree rearrangement heuristics have been used in combination with practically all optimization criteria in use, from maximum likelihood and parsimony to distance-based principles, and in a Bayesian context. Their basic components are rearrangement moves that specify all possible ways of generating alternative phylogenies from a given one, and whose fundamental property is to be able to transform, by repeated application, any phylogeny into any other phylogeny. Despite their long tradition in tree-based phylogenetics, very little research has gone into studying similar rearrangement operations for phylogenetic network—that is, phylogenies explicitly representing scenarios that include reticulate events such as hybridization, horizontal gene transfer, population admixture, and recombination. To fill this gap, we propose “horizontal” moves that ensure that every network of a certain complexity can be reached from any other network of the same complexity, and “vertical” moves that ensure reachability between networks of different complexities. When applied to phylogenetic trees, our horizontal moves—named rNNI and rSPR—reduce to the best-known moves on rooted phylogenetic trees, nearest-neighbor interchange and rooted subtree pruning and regrafting. Besides a number of reachability results—separating the contributions of horizontal and vertical moves—we prove that rNNI moves are local versions of rSPR moves, and provide bounds on the sizes of the rNNI neighborhoods. The paper focuses on the most biologically meaningful versions of phylogenetic networks, where edges are oriented and reticulation events clearly identified. Moreover, our rearrangement moves are robust to the fact that networks with higher complexity usually allow a better fit with the data. Our goal is to provide a solid basis for practical phylogenetic network reconstruction. PMID:28763439

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources in 33 European countries.

PubMed

Lefèvre, François; Koskela, Jarkko; Hubert, Jason; Kraigher, Hojka; Longauer, Roman; Olrik, Ditte C; Schüler, Silvio; Bozzano, Michele; Alizoti, Paraskevi; Bakys, Remigijus; Baldwin, Cathleen; Ballian, Dalibor; Black-Samuelsson, Sanna; Bednarova, Dagmar; Bordács, Sándor; Collin, Eric; de Cuyper, Bart; de Vries, Sven M G; Eysteinsson, Thröstur; Frýdl, Josef; Haverkamp, Michaela; Ivankovic, Mladen; Konrad, Heino; Koziol, Czesław; Maaten, Tiit; Notivol Paino, Eduardo; Oztürk, Hikmet; Pandeva, Ivanova Denitsa; Parnuta, Gheorghe; Pilipovič, Andrej; Postolache, Dragos; Ryan, Cathal; Steffenrem, Arne; Varela, Maria Carolina; Vessella, Federico; Volosyanchuk, Roman T; Westergren, Marjana; Wolter, Frank; Yrjänä, Leena; Zariŋa, Inga

2013-04-01

Dynamic conservation of forest genetic resources (FGR) means maintaining the genetic diversity of trees within an evolutionary process and allowing generation turnover in the forest. We assessed the network of forests areas managed for the dynamic conservation of FGR (conservation units) across Europe (33 countries). On the basis of information available in the European Information System on FGR (EUFGIS Portal), species distribution maps, and environmental stratification of the continent, we developed ecogeographic indicators, a marginality index, and demographic indicators to assess and monitor forest conservation efforts. The pan-European network has 1967 conservation units, 2737 populations of target trees, and 86 species of target trees. We detected a poor coincidence between FGR conservation and other biodiversity conservation objectives within this network. We identified 2 complementary strategies: a species-oriented strategy in which national conservation networks are specifically designed for key target species and a site-oriented strategy in which multiple-target units include so-called secondary species conserved within a few sites. The network is highly unbalanced in terms of species representation, and 7 key target species are conserved in 60% of the conservation units. We performed specific gap analyses for 11 tree species, including assessment of ecogeographic, demographic, and genetic criteria. For each species, we identified gaps, particularly in the marginal parts of their distribution range, and found multiple redundant conservation units in other areas. The Mediterranean forests and to a lesser extent the boreal forests are underrepresented. Monitoring the conservation efficiency of each unit remains challenging; however, <2% of the conserved populations seem to be at risk of extinction. On the basis of our results, we recommend combining species-oriented and site-oriented strategies. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Statistical analysis of textural features for improved classification of oral histopathological images.

PubMed

Muthu Rama Krishnan, M; Shah, Pratik; Chakraborty, Chandan; Ray, Ajoy K

2012-04-01

The objective of this paper is to provide an improved technique, which can assist oncopathologists in correct screening of oral precancerous conditions specially oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) with significant accuracy on the basis of collagen fibres in the sub-epithelial connective tissue. The proposed scheme is composed of collagen fibres segmentation, its textural feature extraction and selection, screening perfomance enhancement under Gaussian transformation and finally classification. In this study, collagen fibres are segmented on R,G,B color channels using back-probagation neural network from 60 normal and 59 OSF histological images followed by histogram specification for reducing the stain intensity variation. Henceforth, textural features of collgen area are extracted using fractal approaches viz., differential box counting and brownian motion curve . Feature selection is done using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence criterion and the screening performance is evaluated based on various statistical tests to conform Gaussian nature. Here, the screening performance is enhanced under Gaussian transformation of the non-Gaussian features using hybrid distribution. Moreover, the routine screening is designed based on two statistical classifiers viz., Bayesian classification and support vector machines (SVM) to classify normal and OSF. It is observed that SVM with linear kernel function provides better classification accuracy (91.64%) as compared to Bayesian classifier. The addition of fractal features of collagen under Gaussian transformation improves Bayesian classifier's performance from 80.69% to 90.75%. Results are here studied and discussed.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-04-01

Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify tradeoffs between different water uses and perspectives, thus promoting the implementation of best practices for adaptation and management with ancillary co-benefits and cross-sectoral implications (i.e. tourism, fishing, biodiversity). Some preliminary results, describing the application of the model in the Dese-Zero river estuary, one of the main tributaries of the Venice Lagoon in Italy, will be here presented and discussed.

Performance Evaluation of Communication Software Systems for Distributed Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fatoohi, Rod

1996-01-01

In recent years there has been an increasing interest in object-oriented distributed computing since it is better quipped to deal with complex systems while providing extensibility, maintainability, and reusability. At the same time, several new high-speed network technologies have emerged for local and wide area networks. However, the performance of networking software is not improving as fast as the networking hardware and the workstation microprocessors. This paper gives an overview and evaluates the performance of the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) standard in a distributed computing environment at NASA Ames Research Center. The environment consists of two testbeds of SGI workstations connected by four networks: Ethernet, FDDI, HiPPI, and ATM. The performance results for three communication software systems are presented, analyzed and compared. These systems are: BSD socket programming interface, IONA's Orbix, an implementation of the CORBA specification, and the PVM message passing library. The results show that high-level communication interfaces, such as CORBA and PVM, can achieve reasonable performance under certain conditions.

Understanding the Relationship Between PTSD and Social Support: The Role of Negative Network Orientation

PubMed Central

Clapp, Joshua D.; Beck, J. Gayle

2009-01-01

Network orientation is conceptualized as an individual’s attitudes and expectations regarding the usefulness of support networks in coping with stress. The present research examined the potential for network orientation to explicate the well documented association between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and attenuated social support. Data collected from survivors of serious motor vehicle trauma (N = 458) were used to test the hypothesis that severity of PTSD would hold a significant indirect relationship with social support through negative network orientation. Childhood victimization and elapsed time from the accident were examined as potential moderators of this indirect relationship. Consistent with hypotheses, path analyses demonstrated a significant indirect relationship between PTSD and social support through negative network orientation. Specifically, this indirect effect was the result of a direct association between PTSD severity and negative network orientation and an inverse association between negative network orientation and social support. This pattern of relationships was invariant across mode of PTSD assessment (interview vs. self-report). No moderation effects were noted. These data suggest that network orientation may be an important factor in understanding interface of interpersonal processes and posttrauma pathology. PMID:19162260

Towards Breaking the Histone Code – Bayesian Graphical Models for Histone Modifications

PubMed Central

Mitra, Riten; Müller, Peter; Liang, Shoudan; Xu, Yanxun; Ji, Yuan

2013-01-01

Background Histones are proteins that wrap DNA around in small spherical structures called nucleosomes. Histone modifications (HMs) refer to the post-translational modifications to the histone tails. At a particular genomic locus, each of these HMs can either be present or absent, and the combinatory patterns of the presence or absence of multiple HMs, or the ‘histone codes,’ are believed to co-regulate important biological processes. We aim to use raw data on HM markers at different genomic loci to (1) decode the complex biological network of HMs in a single region and (2) demonstrate how the HM networks differ in different regulatory regions. We suggest that these differences in network attributes form a significant link between histones and genomic functions. Methods and Results We develop a powerful graphical model under Bayesian paradigm. Posterior inference is fully probabilistic, allowing us to compute the probabilities of distinct dependence patterns of the HMs using graphs. Furthermore, our model-based framework allows for easy but important extensions for inference on differential networks under various conditions, such as the different annotations of the genomic locations (e.g., promoters versus insulators). We applied these models to ChIP-Seq data based on CD4+ T lymphocytes. The results confirmed many existing findings and provided a unified tool to generate various promising hypotheses. Differential network analyses revealed new insights on co-regulation of HMs of transcriptional activities in different genomic regions. Conclusions The use of Bayesian graphical models and borrowing strength across different conditions provide high power to infer histone networks and their differences. PMID:23748248

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

PubMed Central

Baskerville, Edward B.; Dobson, Andy P.; Bedford, Trevor; Allesina, Stefano; Anderson, T. Michael; Pascual, Mercedes

2011-01-01

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships in an ecosystem, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. A standard approach in food-web analysis, and network analysis in general, has been to identify compartments, or modules, defined by many links within compartments and few links between them. This approach can identify large habitat boundaries in the network but may fail to identify other important structures. Empirical analyses of food webs have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure using a flexible definition that can describe both functional trophic roles and standard compartments. We apply this method to a newly compiled plant-mammal food web from the Serengeti ecosystem that includes high taxonomic resolution at the plant level, allowing a simultaneous examination of the signature of both habitat and trophic roles in network structure. We find that groups at the plant level reflect habitat structure, coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial pattern, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified. The network topology supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence. Furthermore, our Bayesian approach provides a powerful, flexible framework for the study of network structure, and we believe it will prove instrumental in a variety of biological contexts. PMID:22219719

Recursive Bayesian recurrent neural networks for time-series modeling.

PubMed

Mirikitani, Derrick T; Nikolaev, Nikolay

2010-02-01

This paper develops a probabilistic approach to recursive second-order training of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for improved time-series modeling. A general recursive Bayesian Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is derived to sequentially update the weights and the covariance (Hessian) matrix. The main strengths of the approach are a principled handling of the regularization hyperparameters that leads to better generalization, and stable numerical performance. The framework involves the adaptation of a noise hyperparameter and local weight prior hyperparameters, which represent the noise in the data and the uncertainties in the model parameters. Experimental investigations using artificial and real-world data sets show that RNNs equipped with the proposed approach outperform standard real-time recurrent learning and extended Kalman training algorithms for recurrent networks, as well as other contemporary nonlinear neural models, on time-series modeling.

RadVel: The Radial Velocity Modeling Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, Benjamin J.; Petigura, Erik A.; Blunt, Sarah; Sinukoff, Evan

2018-04-01

RadVel is an open-source Python package for modeling Keplerian orbits in radial velocity (RV) timeseries. RadVel provides a convenient framework to fit RVs using maximum a posteriori optimization and to compute robust confidence intervals by sampling the posterior probability density via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). RadVel allows users to float or fix parameters, impose priors, and perform Bayesian model comparison. We have implemented real-time MCMC convergence tests to ensure adequate sampling of the posterior. RadVel can output a number of publication-quality plots and tables. Users may interface with RadVel through a convenient command-line interface or directly from Python. The code is object-oriented and thus naturally extensible. We encourage contributions from the community. Documentation is available at http://radvel.readthedocs.io.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, Max

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

Virtual Representation of IID Observations in Bayesian Belief Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-04-01

programs for structuring and using Bayesian inference include ERGO ( Noetic Systems, Inc., 1991) and HUGIN (Andersen, Jensen, Olesen, & Jensen, 1989...Nichols, S.. Chipman, & R. Brennan (Eds.), Cognitively diagnostic assessment. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Noetic Systems, Inc. (1991). ERGO [computer...Dr Geore Eageiard Jr Chicago IL 60612 US Naval Academy Division of Educational Studies Annapolis MD 21402-5002 Emory University Dr Janice Gifford 210

Predicting Football Matches Results using Bayesian Networks for English Premier League (EPL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razali, Nazim; Mustapha, Aida; Yatim, Faiz Ahmad; Aziz, Ruhaya Ab

2017-08-01

The issues of modeling asscoiation football prediction model has become increasingly popular in the last few years and many different approaches of prediction models have been proposed with the point of evaluating the attributes that lead a football team to lose, draw or win the match. There are three types of approaches has been considered for predicting football matches results which include statistical approaches, machine learning approaches and Bayesian approaches. Lately, many studies regarding football prediction models has been produced using Bayesian approaches. This paper proposes a Bayesian Networks (BNs) to predict the results of football matches in term of home win (H), away win (A) and draw (D). The English Premier League (EPL) for three seasons of 2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 has been selected and reviewed. K-fold cross validation has been used for testing the accuracy of prediction model. The required information about the football data is sourced from a legitimate site at http://www.football-data.co.uk. BNs achieved predictive accuracy of 75.09% in average across three seasons. It is hoped that the results could be used as the benchmark output for future research in predicting football matches results.

A neural network approach for image reconstruction in electron magnetic resonance tomography.

PubMed

Durairaj, D Christopher; Krishna, Murali C; Murugesan, Ramachandran

2007-10-01

An object-oriented, artificial neural network (ANN) based, application system for reconstruction of two-dimensional spatial images in electron magnetic resonance (EMR) tomography is presented. The standard back propagation algorithm is utilized to train a three-layer sigmoidal feed-forward, supervised, ANN to perform the image reconstruction. The network learns the relationship between the 'ideal' images that are reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) technique and the corresponding projection data (sinograms). The input layer of the network is provided with a training set that contains projection data from various phantoms as well as in vivo objects, acquired from an EMR imager. Twenty five different network configurations are investigated to test the ability of the generalization of the network. The trained ANN then reconstructs two-dimensional temporal spatial images that present the distribution of free radicals in biological systems. Image reconstruction by the trained neural network shows better time complexity than the conventional iterative reconstruction algorithms such as multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique (MART). The network is further explored for image reconstruction from 'noisy' EMR data and the results show better performance than the FBP method. The network is also tested for its ability to reconstruct from limited-angle EMR data set.

OOMM--Object-Oriented Matrix Modelling: an instrument for the integration of the Brasilia Regional Health Information System.

PubMed

Cammarota, M; Huppes, V; Gaia, S; Degoulet, P

1998-01-01

The development of Health Information Systems is widely determined by the establishment of the underlying information models. An Object-Oriented Matrix Model (OOMM) is described which target is to facilitate the integration of the overall health system. The model is based on information modules named micro-databases that are structured in a three-dimensional network: planning, health structures and information systems. The modelling tool has been developed as a layer on top of a relational database system. A visual browser facilitates the development and maintenance of the information model. The modelling approach has been applied to the Brasilia University Hospital since 1991. The extension of the modelling approach to the Brasilia regional health system is considered.

ProperCAD: A portable object-oriented parallel environment for VLSI CAD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramkumar, Balkrishna; Banerjee, Prithviraj

1993-01-01

Most parallel algorithms for VLSI CAD proposed to date have one important drawback: they work efficiently only on machines that they were designed for. As a result, algorithms designed to date are dependent on the architecture for which they are developed and do not port easily to other parallel architectures. A new project under way to address this problem is described. A Portable object-oriented parallel environment for CAD algorithms (ProperCAD) is being developed. The objectives of this research are (1) to develop new parallel algorithms that run in a portable object-oriented environment (CAD algorithms using a general purpose platform for portable parallel programming called CARM is being developed and a C++ environment that is truly object-oriented and specialized for CAD applications is also being developed); and (2) to design the parallel algorithms around a good sequential algorithm with a well-defined parallel-sequential interface (permitting the parallel algorithm to benefit from future developments in sequential algorithms). One CAD application that has been implemented as part of the ProperCAD project, flat VLSI circuit extraction, is described. The algorithm, its implementation, and its performance on a range of parallel machines are discussed in detail. It currently runs on an Encore Multimax, a Sequent Symmetry, Intel iPSC/2 and i860 hypercubes, a NCUBE 2 hypercube, and a network of Sun Sparc workstations. Performance data for other applications that were developed are provided: namely test pattern generation for sequential circuits, parallel logic synthesis, and standard cell placement.

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

PubMed

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

Bayesian Networks in Educational Assessment

PubMed Central

Culbertson, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Bayesian networks (BN) provide a convenient and intuitive framework for specifying complex joint probability distributions and are thus well suited for modeling content domains of educational assessments at a diagnostic level. BN have been used extensively in the artificial intelligence community as student models for intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) but have received less attention among psychometricians. This critical review outlines the existing research on BN in educational assessment, providing an introduction to the ITS literature for the psychometric community, and points out several promising research paths. The online appendix lists 40 assessment systems that serve as empirical examples of the use of BN for educational assessment in a variety of domains. PMID:29881033

Nuclear charge radii: density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, R.; Chen, Wei-Chia; Piekarewicz, J.

2016-11-01

The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. The aim of this study is to explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonstrated the ability of the BNN approach to significantly increase the accuracy of nuclear models in the predictions of nuclear charge radii. However, as many before us, we failed to uncover the underlying physics behind the intriguing behavior of charge radii along the calcium isotopic chain.

Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

PubMed Central

Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

2016-01-01

Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions.

PubMed

Stewart, G B; Mengersen, K; Meader, N

2014-03-01

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to 'empty' reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability modelling and analysis of a multi-state element based on a dynamic Bayesian network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhiqiang; Xu, Tingxue; Gu, Junyuan; Dong, Qi; Fu, Linyu

2018-04-01

This paper presents a quantitative reliability modelling and analysis method for multi-state elements based on a combination of the Markov process and a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking perfect repair, imperfect repair and condition-based maintenance (CBM) into consideration. The Markov models of elements without repair and under CBM are established, and an absorbing set is introduced to determine the reliability of the repairable element. According to the state-transition relations between the states determined by the Markov process, a DBN model is built. In addition, its parameters for series and parallel systems, namely, conditional probability tables, can be calculated by referring to the conditional degradation probabilities. Finally, the power of a control unit in a failure model is used as an example. A dynamic fault tree (DFT) is translated into a Bayesian network model, and subsequently extended to a DBN. The results show the state probabilities of an element and the system without repair, with perfect and imperfect repair, and under CBM, with an absorbing set plotted by differential equations and verified. Through referring forward, the reliability value of the control unit is determined in different kinds of modes. Finally, weak nodes are noted in the control unit.

Inferring Alcoholism SNPs and Regulatory Chemical Compounds Based on Ensemble Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Chen, Huan; Sun, Jiatong; Jiang, Hong; Wang, Xianyue; Wu, Lingxiang; Wu, Wei; Wang, Qh

2017-01-01

The disturbance of consciousness is one of the most common symptoms of those have alcoholism and may cause disability and mortality. Previous studies indicated that several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) increase the susceptibility of alcoholism. In this study, we utilized the Ensemble Bayesian Network (EBN) method to identify causal SNPs of alcoholism based on the verified GAW14 data. We built a Bayesian network combining random process and greedy search by using Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 (GAW14) dataset to establish EBN of SNPs. Then we predicted the association between SNPs and alcoholism by determining Bayes' prior probability. Thirteen out of eighteen SNPs directly connected with alcoholism were found concordance with potential risk regions of alcoholism in OMIM database. As many SNPs were found contributing to alteration on gene expression, known as expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), we further sought to identify chemical compounds acting as regulators of alcoholism genes captured by causal SNPs. Chloroprene and valproic acid were identified as the expression regulators for genes C11orf66 and SALL3 which were captured by alcoholism SNPs, respectively. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

OpenSim: A Flexible Distributed Neural Network Simulator with Automatic Interactive Graphics.

PubMed

Jarosch, Andreas; Leber, Jean Francois

1997-06-01

An object-oriented simulator called OpenSim is presented that achieves a high degree of flexibility by relying on a small set of building blocks. The state variables and algorithms put in this framework can easily be accessed through a command shell. This allows one to distribute a large-scale simulation over several workstations and to generate the interactive graphics automatically. OpenSim opens new possibilities for cooperation among Neural Network researchers. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

A tree-like Bayesian structure learning algorithm for small-sample datasets from complex biological model systems.

PubMed

Yin, Weiwei; Garimalla, Swetha; Moreno, Alberto; Galinski, Mary R; Styczynski, Mark P

2015-08-28

There are increasing efforts to bring high-throughput systems biology techniques to bear on complex animal model systems, often with a goal of learning about underlying regulatory network structures (e.g., gene regulatory networks). However, complex animal model systems typically have significant limitations on cohort sizes, number of samples, and the ability to perform follow-up and validation experiments. These constraints are particularly problematic for many current network learning approaches, which require large numbers of samples and may predict many more regulatory relationships than actually exist. Here, we test the idea that by leveraging the accuracy and efficiency of classifiers, we can construct high-quality networks that capture important interactions between variables in datasets with few samples. We start from a previously-developed tree-like Bayesian classifier and generalize its network learning approach to allow for arbitrary depth and complexity of tree-like networks. Using four diverse sample networks, we demonstrate that this approach performs consistently better at low sample sizes than the Sparse Candidate Algorithm, a representative approach for comparison because it is known to generate Bayesian networks with high positive predictive value. We develop and demonstrate a resampling-based approach to enable the identification of a viable root for the learned tree-like network, important for cases where the root of a network is not known a priori. We also develop and demonstrate an integrated resampling-based approach to the reduction of variable space for the learning of the network. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this approach via the analysis of a transcriptional dataset of a malaria challenge in a non-human primate model system, Macaca mulatta, suggesting the potential to capture indicators of the earliest stages of cellular differentiation during leukopoiesis. We demonstrate that by starting from effective and efficient approaches for creating classifiers, we can identify interesting tree-like network structures with significant ability to capture the relationships in the training data. This approach represents a promising strategy for inferring networks with high positive predictive value under the constraint of small numbers of samples, meeting a need that will only continue to grow as more high-throughput studies are applied to complex model systems.

Orienteering in Knowledge Spaces: The Hyperbolic Geometry of Wikipedia Mathematics

PubMed Central

Leibon, Gregory; Rockmore, Daniel N.

2013-01-01

In this paper we show how the coupling of the notion of a network with directions with the adaptation of the four-point probe from materials testing gives rise to a natural geometry on such networks. This four-point probe geometry shares many of the properties of hyperbolic geometry wherein the network directions take the place of the sphere at infinity, enabling a navigation of the network in terms of pairs of directions: the geodesic through a pair of points is oriented from one direction to another direction, the pair of which are uniquely determined. We illustrate this in the interesting example of the pages of Wikipedia devoted to Mathematics, or “The MathWiki.” The applicability of these ideas extends beyond Wikipedia to provide a natural framework for visual search and to prescribe a natural mode of navigation for any kind of “knowledge space” in which higher order concepts aggregate various instances of information. Other examples would include genre or author organization of cultural objects such as books, movies, documents or even merchandise in an online store. PMID:23844017

Orienteering in knowledge spaces: the hyperbolic geometry of Wikipedia Mathematics.

PubMed

Leibon, Gregory; Rockmore, Daniel N

2013-01-01

In this paper we show how the coupling of the notion of a network with directions with the adaptation of the four-point probe from materials testing gives rise to a natural geometry on such networks. This four-point probe geometry shares many of the properties of hyperbolic geometry wherein the network directions take the place of the sphere at infinity, enabling a navigation of the network in terms of pairs of directions: the geodesic through a pair of points is oriented from one direction to another direction, the pair of which are uniquely determined. We illustrate this in the interesting example of the pages of Wikipedia devoted to Mathematics, or "The MathWiki." The applicability of these ideas extends beyond Wikipedia to provide a natural framework for visual search and to prescribe a natural mode of navigation for any kind of "knowledge space" in which higher order concepts aggregate various instances of information. Other examples would include genre or author organization of cultural objects such as books, movies, documents or even merchandise in an online store.

Application of Bayesian Approach in Cancer Clinical Trial

PubMed Central

Bhattacharjee, Atanu

2014-01-01

The application of Bayesian approach in clinical trials becomes more useful over classical method. It is beneficial from design to analysis phase. The straight forward statement is possible to obtain through Bayesian about the drug treatment effect. Complex computational problems are simple to handle with Bayesian techniques. The technique is only feasible to performing presence of prior information of the data. The inference is possible to establish through posterior estimates. However, some limitations are present in this method. The objective of this work was to explore the several merits and demerits of Bayesian approach in cancer research. The review of the technique will be helpful for the clinical researcher involved in the oncology to explore the limitation and power of Bayesian techniques. PMID:29147387

Potential Use of a Bayesian Network for Discriminating Flash Type from Future GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solakiewiz, Richard; Koshak, William

2008-01-01

Continuous monitoring of the ratio of cloud flashes to ground flashes may provide a better understanding of thunderstorm dynamics, intensification, and evolution, and it may be useful in severe weather warning. The National Lighting Detection Network TM (NLDN) senses ground flashes with exceptional detection efficiency and accuracy over most of the continental United States. A proposed Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) will look at the western hemisphere, and among the lightning data products to be made available will be the fundamental optical flash parameters for both cloud and ground flashes: radiance, area, duration, number of optical groups, and number of optical events. Previous studies have demonstrated that the optical flash parameter statistics of ground and cloud lightning, which are observable from space, are significantly different. This study investigates a Bayesian network methodology for discriminating lightning flash type (ground or cloud) using the lightning optical data and ancillary GOES-R data. A Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) is set up with lightning as a "root" and data observed by GLM as the "leaves." This allows for a direct calculation of the joint probability distribution function for the lighting type and radiance, area, etc. Initially, the conditional probabilities that will be required can be estimated from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) together with NLDN data. Directly manipulating the joint distribution will yield the conditional probability that a lightning flash is a ground flash given the evidence, which consists of the observed lightning optical data [and possibly cloud data retrieved from the GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) in a more mature Bayesian network configuration]. Later, actual GLM and NLDN data can be used to refine the estimates of the conditional probabilities used in the model; i.e., the Bayesian network is a learning network. Methods for efficient calculation of the conditional probabilities (e.g., an algorithm using junction trees), finding data conflicts, goodness of fit, and dealing with missing data will also be addressed.

Artificial intelligence, neural network, and Internet tool integration in a pathology workstation to improve information access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargis, J. C.; Gray, W. A.

1999-03-01

The APWS allows user friendly access to several legacy systems which would normally each demand domain expertise for proper utilization. The generalized model, including objects, classes, strategies and patterns is presented. The core components of the APWS are the Microsoft Windows 95 Operating System, Oracle, Oracle Power Objects, Artificial Intelligence tools, a medical hyperlibrary and a web site. The paper includes a discussion of how could be automated by taking advantage of the expert system, object oriented programming and intelligent relational database tools within the APWS.

Understanding the complex relationships underlying hot flashes: a Bayesian network approach.

PubMed

Smith, Rebecca L; Gallicchio, Lisa M; Flaws, Jodi A

2018-02-01

The mechanism underlying hot flashes is not well-understood, primarily because of complex relationships between and among hot flashes and their risk factors. We explored those relationships using a Bayesian network approach based on a 2006 to 2015 cohort study of hot flashes among 776 female residents, 45 to 54 years old, in the Baltimore area. Bayesian networks were fit for each outcome (current hot flashes, hot flashes before the end of the study, hot flash severity, hot flash frequency, and age at first hot flashes) separately and together with a list of risk factors (estrogen, progesterone, testosterone, body mass index and obesity, race, income level, education level, smoking history, drinking history, and activity level). Each fitting was conducted separately on all women and only perimenopausal women, at enrollment and 4 years after enrollment. Hormone levels, almost always interrelated, were the most common variable linked to hot flashes; hormone levels were sometimes related to body mass index, but were not directly related to any other risk factors. Smoking was also frequently associated with increased likelihood of severe symptoms, but not through an antiestrogenic pathway. The age at first hot flashes was related only to race. All other factors were either not related to outcomes or were mediated entirely by race, hormone levels, or smoking. These models can serve as a guide for design of studies into the causal network underlying hot flashes.

Which is best for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures: balloon kyphoplasty, percutaneous vertebroplasty or non-surgical treatment? A study protocol for a Bayesian network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Kan, Shun-Li; Yuan, Zhi-Fang; Chen, Ling-Xiao; Sun, Jing-Cheng; Ning, Guang-Zhi; Feng, Shi-Qing

2017-01-01

Introduction Osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) commonly cause both acute and chronic back pain, substantial spinal deformity, functional disability and decreased quality of life and increase the risk of future vertebral fractures and mortality. Percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP), balloon kyphoplasty (BK) and non-surgical treatment (NST) are mostly used for the treatment of OVCFs. However, which treatment is preferred is unknown. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively review the literature and ascertain the relative efficacy and safety of BK, PVP and NST for patients with OVCFs using a Bayesian network meta-analysis. Methods and analysis We will comprehensively search PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, to include randomided controlled trials that compare BK, PVP or NST for treating OVCFs. The risk of bias for individual studies will be assessed according to the Cochrane Handbook. Bayesian network meta-analysis will be performed to compare the efficacy and safety of BK, PVP and NST. The quality of evidence will be evaluated by GRADE. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval and patient consent are not required since this study is a meta-analysis based on published studies. The results of this network meta-analysis will be submitted to a peer-reviewed journal for publication. PROSPERO registration number CRD42016039452; Pre-results. PMID:28093431

Selecting Strategies to Reduce High-Risk Unsafe Work Behaviors Using the Safety Behavior Sampling Technique and Bayesian Network Analysis.

PubMed

Ghasemi, Fakhradin; Kalatpour, Omid; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Mohammadfam, Iraj

2017-03-04

High-risk unsafe behaviors (HRUBs) have been known as the main cause of occupational accidents. Considering the financial and societal costs of accidents and the limitations of available resources, there is an urgent need for managing unsafe behaviors at workplaces. The aim of the present study was to find strategies for decreasing the rate of HRUBs using an integrated approach of safety behavior sampling technique and Bayesian networks analysis. A cross-sectional study. The Bayesian network was constructed using a focus group approach. The required data was collected using the safety behavior sampling, and the parameters of the network were estimated using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Using sensitivity analysis and belief updating, it was determined that which factors had the highest influences on unsafe behavior. Based on BN analyses, safety training was the most important factor influencing employees' behavior at the workplace. High quality safety training courses can reduce the rate of HRUBs about 10%. Moreover, the rate of HRUBs increased by decreasing the age of employees. The rate of HRUBs was higher in the afternoon and last days of a week. Among the investigated variables, training was the most important factor affecting safety behavior of employees. By holding high quality safety training courses, companies would be able to reduce the rate of HRUBs significantly.

A Novel Trust Service Provider for Internet Based Commerce Applications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siyal, M. Y.; Barkat, B.

2002-01-01

Presents a framework for enhancing trust in Internet commerce. Shows how trust can be provided through a network of Trust Service Providers (TSp). Identifies a set of services that should be offered by a TSp. Presents a distributed object-oriented implementation of trust services using CORBA, JAVA and XML. (Author/AEF)

Text-Based MOOing in Educational Practice: Experiences of Disinhibition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chester, Andrea

2006-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe educational MOOs--MUD, object-oriented (text-based, network-accessible virtual environments) and explore how teaching and learning in such a context impacts on students' inhibitions. Design/methodology/approach: Students enrolled in a course on the psychology of cyberspace interacted for 12 weeks…

The SysMan monitoring service and its management environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debski, Andrzej; Janas, Ekkehard

1996-06-01

Management of modern information systems is becoming more and more complex. There is a growing need for powerful, flexible and affordable management tools to assist system managers in maintaining such systems. It is at the same time evident that effective management should integrate network management, system management and application management in a uniform way. Object oriented OSI management architecture with its four basic modelling concepts (information, organization, communication and functional models) together with widely accepted distribution platforms such as ANSA/CORBA, constitutes a reliable and modern framework for the implementation of a management toolset. This paper focuses on the presentation of concepts and implementation results of an object oriented management toolset developed and implemented within the framework of the ESPRIT project 7026 SysMan. An overview is given of the implemented SysMan management services including the System Management Service, Monitoring Service, Network Management Service, Knowledge Service, Domain and Policy Service, and the User Interface. Special attention is paid to the Monitoring Service which incorporates the architectural key entity responsible for event management. Its architecture and building components, especially filters, are emphasized and presented in detail.

Markov Task Network: A Framework for Service Composition under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical Systems.

PubMed

Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Agyemang, Brighter

2016-09-21

In novel collaborative systems, cooperative entities collaborate services to achieve local and global objectives. With the growing pervasiveness of cyber-physical systems, however, such collaboration is hampered by differences in the operations of the cyber and physical objects, and the need for the dynamic formation of collaborative functionality given high-level system goals has become practical. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer automation and management model for cyber-physical systems. This models the dynamic formation of collaborative services pursuing laid-down system goals as an ontology-oriented hierarchical task network. Ontological intelligence provides the semantic technology of this model, and through semantic reasoning, primitive tasks can be dynamically composed from high-level system goals. In dealing with uncertainty, we further propose a novel bridge between hierarchical task networks and Markov logic networks, called the Markov task network. This leverages the efficient inference algorithms of Markov logic networks to reduce both computational and inferential loads in task decomposition. From the results of our experiments, high-precision service composition under uncertainty can be achieved using this approach.

Grasp movement decoding from premotor and parietal cortex.

PubMed

Townsend, Benjamin R; Subasi, Erk; Scherberger, Hansjörg

2011-10-05

Despite recent advances in harnessing cortical motor-related activity to control computer cursors and robotic devices, the ability to decode and execute different grasping patterns remains a major obstacle. Here we demonstrate a simple Bayesian decoder for real-time classification of grip type and wrist orientation in macaque monkeys that uses higher-order planning signals from anterior intraparietal cortex (AIP) and ventral premotor cortex (area F5). Real-time decoding was based on multiunit signals, which had similar tuning properties to cells in previous single-unit recording studies. Maximum decoding accuracy for two grasp types (power and precision grip) and five wrist orientations was 63% (chance level, 10%). Analysis of decoder performance showed that grip type decoding was highly accurate (90.6%), with most errors occurring during orientation classification. In a subsequent off-line analysis, we found small but significant performance improvements (mean, 6.25 percentage points) when using an optimized spike-sorting method (superparamagnetic clustering). Furthermore, we observed significant differences in the contributions of F5 and AIP for grasp decoding, with F5 being better suited for classification of the grip type and AIP contributing more toward decoding of object orientation. However, optimum decoding performance was maximal when using neural activity simultaneously from both areas. Overall, these results highlight quantitative differences in the functional representation of grasp movements in AIP and F5 and represent a first step toward using these signals for developing functional neural interfaces for hand grasping.

NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisco, Paula H.; Vavrin, A. B.; Anz-Meador, P. D.

2013-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Integrating biological knowledge into variable selection: an empirical Bayes approach with an application in cancer biology

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background An important question in the analysis of biochemical data is that of identifying subsets of molecular variables that may jointly influence a biological response. Statistical variable selection methods have been widely used for this purpose. In many settings, it may be important to incorporate ancillary biological information concerning the variables of interest. Pathway and network maps are one example of a source of such information. However, although ancillary information is increasingly available, it is not always clear how it should be used nor how it should be weighted in relation to primary data. Results We put forward an approach in which biological knowledge is incorporated using informative prior distributions over variable subsets, with prior information selected and weighted in an automated, objective manner using an empirical Bayes formulation. We employ continuous, linear models with interaction terms and exploit biochemically-motivated sparsity constraints to permit exact inference. We show an example of priors for pathway- and network-based information and illustrate our proposed method on both synthetic response data and by an application to cancer drug response data. Comparisons are also made to alternative Bayesian and frequentist penalised-likelihood methods for incorporating network-based information. Conclusions The empirical Bayes method proposed here can aid prior elicitation for Bayesian variable selection studies and help to guard against mis-specification of priors. Empirical Bayes, together with the proposed pathway-based priors, results in an approach with a competitive variable selection performance. In addition, the overall procedure is fast, deterministic, and has very few user-set parameters, yet is capable of capturing interplay between molecular players. The approach presented is general and readily applicable in any setting with multiple sources of biological prior knowledge. PMID:22578440

Informative Bayesian Type A uncertainty evaluation, especially applicable to a small number of observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, M.; Shirono, K.

2017-10-01

A criticism levelled at the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is that it is based on a mixture of frequentist and Bayesian thinking. In particular, the GUM’s Type A (statistical) uncertainty evaluations are frequentist, whereas the Type B evaluations, using state-of-knowledge distributions, are Bayesian. In contrast, making the GUM fully Bayesian implies, among other things, that a conventional objective Bayesian approach to Type A uncertainty evaluation for a number n of observations leads to the impractical consequence that n must be at least equal to 4, thus presenting a difficulty for many metrologists. This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of Type A uncertainty evaluation that applies for all n ≥slant 2 , as in the frequentist analysis in the current GUM. The analysis is based on assuming that the observations are drawn from a normal distribution (as in the conventional objective Bayesian analysis), but uses an informative prior based on lower and upper bounds for the standard deviation of the sampling distribution for the quantity under consideration. The main outcome of the analysis is a closed-form mathematical expression for the factor by which the standard deviation of the mean observation should be multiplied to calculate the required standard uncertainty. Metrological examples are used to illustrate the approach, which is straightforward to apply using a formula or look-up table.

EXOFIT: orbital parameters of extrasolar planets from radial velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balan, Sreekumar T.; Lahav, Ofer

2009-04-01

Retrieval of orbital parameters of extrasolar planets poses considerable statistical challenges. Due to sparse sampling, measurement errors, parameters degeneracy and modelling limitations, there are no unique values of basic parameters, such as period and eccentricity. Here, we estimate the orbital parameters from radial velocity data in a Bayesian framework by utilizing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We follow a methodology recently proposed by Gregory and Ford. Our implementation of MCMC is based on the object-oriented approach outlined by Graves. We make our resulting code, EXOFIT, publicly available with this paper. It can search for either one or two planets as illustrated on mock data. As an example we re-analysed the orbital solution of companions to HD 187085 and HD 159868 from the published radial velocity data. We confirm the degeneracy reported for orbital parameters of the companion to HD 187085, and show that a low-eccentricity orbit is more probable for this planet. For HD 159868, we obtained slightly different orbital solution and a relatively high `noise' factor indicating the presence of an unaccounted signal in the radial velocity data. EXOFIT is designed in such a way that it can be extended for a variety of probability models, including different Bayesian priors.

The IUR Forum: Worldwide Harmonisation of Networks to Support Integration of Scientific Knowledge and Consensus Development in Radioecology.

PubMed

Bréchignac, F; Alexakhin, R; Bollhöfer, A; Frogg, K E; Hardeman, F; Higley, K; Hinton, T G; Kapustka, L A; Kuhne, W; Leonard, K; Masson, O; Nanba, K; Smith, G; Smith, K; Strand, P; Vandenhove, H; Yankovich, T; Yoshida, S

2017-04-01

During the past decades, many specialised networks have formed to meet specific radioecological objectives, whether regional or sectorial (purpose-oriented). Regional networks deal with an array of radioecological issues related to their territories. Examples include the South Pacific network of radioecologists, and the European network of excellence in radioecology. The latter is now part of the European platform for radiation protection. Sectorial networks are more problem-oriented, often with wider international representativeness, but restricted to one specific issue, (e.g. radioactive waste, low-level atmospheric contamination, modelling). All such networks, while often working in relative isolation, contribute to a flow of scientific information which, through United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR's) efforts of synthesis, feeds into the radiation protection frameworks of protecting humans and the environment. The IUR has therefore prompted a co-construction process aimed at improving worldwide harmonisation of radioecology networks. An initiative based on an initial set of 15 networks, now called the IUR FORUM, was launched in June 2014. The IUR Forum agreed to build a framework for improved coordination of scientific knowledge, integration and consensus development relative to environmental radioactivity. Three objectives have been collectively assigned to the IUR FORUM: (1) coordination, (2) global integration and construction of consensus and (3) maintenance of expertise. One particular achievement of the FORUM was an improved description and common understanding of the respective roles and functions of the various networks within the overall scene of radioecology R&D. It clarifies how the various networks assembled within the IUR FORUM interface with UNSCEAR and other international regulatory bodies (IAEA, ICRP), and how consensus on the assessment of risk is constructed. All these agencies interact with regional networks covering different geographical areas, and with other networks which address specific topics within radiation protection. After holding its first Consensus Symposium in 2015, examining the possible ecological impact of radiation from environmental contamination, the IUR FORUM continues its work towards improved radiation protection of humans and the environment. We welcome new members. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

BELM: Bayesian extreme learning machine.

PubMed

Soria-Olivas, Emilio; Gómez-Sanchis, Juan; Martín, José D; Vila-Francés, Joan; Martínez, Marcelino; Magdalena, José R; Serrano, Antonio J

2011-03-01

The theory of extreme learning machine (ELM) has become very popular on the last few years. ELM is a new approach for learning the parameters of the hidden layers of a multilayer neural network (as the multilayer perceptron or the radial basis function neural network). Its main advantage is the lower computational cost, which is especially relevant when dealing with many patterns defined in a high-dimensional space. This brief proposes a bayesian approach to ELM, which presents some advantages over other approaches: it allows the introduction of a priori knowledge; obtains the confidence intervals (CIs) without the need of applying methods that are computationally intensive, e.g., bootstrap; and presents high generalization capabilities. Bayesian ELM is benchmarked against classical ELM in several artificial and real datasets that are widely used for the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Achieved results show that the proposed approach produces a competitive accuracy with some additional advantages, namely, automatic production of CIs, reduction of probability of model overfitting, and use of a priori knowledge.

Towards a Bayesian evaluation of features in questioned handwritten signatures.

PubMed

Gaborini, Lorenzo; Biedermann, Alex; Taroni, Franco

2017-05-01

In this work, we propose the construction of a evaluative framework for supporting experts in questioned signature examinations. Through the use of Bayesian networks, we envision to quantify the probative value of well defined measurements performed on questioned signatures, in a way that is both formalised and part of a coherent approach to evaluation. At the current stage, our project is explorative, focusing on the broad range of aspects that relate to comparative signature examinations. The goal is to identify writing features which are both highly discriminant, and easy for forensic examiners to detect. We also seek for a balance between case-specific features and characteristics which can be measured in the vast majority of signatures. Care is also taken at preserving the interpretability at every step of the reasoning process. This paves the way for future work, which will aim at merging the different contributions to a single probabilistic measure of strength of evidence using Bayesian networks. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McFarland, John; Swiler, Laura Painton

The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context ofmore » the thermal challenge problem. A BBN is developed for a given set of experimental data in a particular experimental configuration. The development of the BBN and the method for ''solving'' the BBN to develop the posterior distribution of model output through Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling is discussed in detail. The use of the BBN to compute a Bayes' factor is demonstrated.« less

Bayes and the Law

PubMed Central

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel

2016-01-01

Although the last forty years has seen considerable growth in the use of statistics in legal proceedings, it is primarily classical statistical methods rather than Bayesian methods that have been used. Yet the Bayesian approach avoids many of the problems of classical statistics and is also well suited to a broader range of problems. This paper reviews the potential and actual use of Bayes in the law and explains the main reasons for its lack of impact on legal practice. These include misconceptions by the legal community about Bayes’ theorem, over-reliance on the use of the likelihood ratio and the lack of adoption of modern computational methods. We argue that Bayesian Networks (BNs), which automatically produce the necessary Bayesian calculations, provide an opportunity to address most concerns about using Bayes in the law. PMID:27398389

Bayes and the Law.

PubMed

Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Berger, Daniel

2016-06-01

Although the last forty years has seen considerable growth in the use of statistics in legal proceedings, it is primarily classical statistical methods rather than Bayesian methods that have been used. Yet the Bayesian approach avoids many of the problems of classical statistics and is also well suited to a broader range of problems. This paper reviews the potential and actual use of Bayes in the law and explains the main reasons for its lack of impact on legal practice. These include misconceptions by the legal community about Bayes' theorem, over-reliance on the use of the likelihood ratio and the lack of adoption of modern computational methods. We argue that Bayesian Networks (BNs), which automatically produce the necessary Bayesian calculations, provide an opportunity to address most concerns about using Bayes in the law.

Designing optimal greenhouse gas monitoring networks for Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziehn, T.; Law, R. M.; Rayner, P. J.; Roff, G.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric transport inversion is commonly used to infer greenhouse gas (GHG) flux estimates from concentration measurements. The optimal location of ground-based observing stations that supply these measurements can be determined by network design. Here, we use a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to derive optimal GHG observing networks for Australia. This extends the network design for carbon dioxide (CO2) performed by Ziehn et al. (2014) to also minimise the uncertainty on the flux estimates for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both individually and in a combined network using multiple objectives. Optimal networks are generated by adding up to five new stations to the base network, which is defined as two existing stations, Cape Grim and Gunn Point, in southern and northern Australia respectively. The individual networks for CO2, CH4 and N2O and the combined observing network show large similarities because the flux uncertainties for each GHG are dominated by regions of biologically productive land. There is little penalty, in terms of flux uncertainty reduction, for the combined network compared to individually designed networks. The location of the stations in the combined network is sensitive to variations in the assumed data uncertainty across locations. A simple assessment of economic costs has been included in our network design approach, considering both establishment and maintenance costs. Our results suggest that, while site logistics change the optimal network, there is only a small impact on the flux uncertainty reductions achieved with increasing network size.