Observability considerations for multi-sensor and product fusion: Bias, information content, and validation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, J. S.; Zhang, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Campbell, J. R.; Christopher, S. A.; Ferrare, R. A.; Leptoukh, G. G.; Stackhouse, P. W.

2009-12-01

With the successful development of many aerosol products from the NASA A-train as well as new operational geostationary and polar orbiting sensors, the scientific community now has a host of new parameters to use in their analyses. The variety and quality of products has reached a point where the community has moved from basic observation-based science to sophisticated multi-component research that addresses the complex atmospheric environment. In order for these satellite data contribute to the science their uncertainty levels must move from semi-quantitative to quantitative. Initial attempts to quantify uncertainties have led to some recent debate in the community as to the efficacy of aerosol products from current and future NASA satellite sensors. In an effort to understand the state of satellite product fidelity, the Naval Research Laboratory and a newly reformed Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) aerosol panel have both initiated assessments of the nature of aerosol remote sensing uncertainty and bias. In this talk we go over areas of specific concern based on the authors’ experiences with the data, emphasizing the multi-sensor problem. We first enumerate potential biases, including retrieval, sampling/contextual, and cognitive bias. We show examples of how these biases can subsequently lead to the pitfalls of correlated/compensating errors, tautology, and confounding. The nature of bias is closely related to the information content of the sensor signal and its subsequent application to the derived aerosol quantity of interest (e.g., optical depth, flux, index of refraction, etc.). Consequently, purpose-specific validation methods must be employed, especially when generating multi-sensor products. Indeed, cloud and lower boundary condition biases in particular complicate the more typical methods of regressional bias elimination and histogram matching. We close with a discussion of sequestration of uncertainty in multi-sensor applications of

Effect of glomerular filtration rate at dialysis initiation on survival in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: what is the effect of lead-time bias?

PubMed Central

Janmaat, Cynthia J; van Diepen, Merel; Krediet, Raymond T; Hemmelder, Marc H; Dekker, Friedo W

2017-01-01

Purpose Current clinical guidelines recommend to initiate dialysis in the presence of symptoms or signs attributable to kidney failure, often with a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 5–10 mL/min/1.73 m2. Little evidence exists about the optimal kidney function to start dialysis. Thus far, most observational studies have been limited by lead-time bias. Only a few studies have accounted for lead-time bias, and showed contradictory results. We examined the effect of GFR at dialysis initiation on survival in chronic kidney disease patients, and the role of lead-time bias therein. We used both kidney function based on 24-hour urine collection (measured GFR [mGFR]) and estimated GFR (eGFR). Materials and methods A total of 1,143 patients with eGFR data at dialysis initiation and 852 patients with mGFR data were included from the NECOSAD cohort. Cox regression was used to adjust for potential confounders. To examine the effect of lead-time bias, survival was counted from the time of dialysis initiation or from a common starting point (GFR 20 mL/min/1.73 m2), using linear interpolation models. Results Without lead-time correction, no difference between early and late starters was present based on eGFR (hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81–1.3). However, after lead-time correction, early initiation showed a survival disadvantage (HR between 1.1 [95% CI 0.82–1.48] and 1.33 [95% CI 1.05–1.68]). Based on mGFR, the potential survival benefit for early starters without lead-time correction (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.62–1.03) completely disappeared after lead-time correction (HR between 0.94 [95% CI 0.65–1.34] and 1.21 [95% CI 0.95–1.56]). Dialysis start time differed about a year between early and late initiation. Conclusion Lead-time bias is not only a methodological problem but also has clinical impact when assessing the optimal kidney function to start dialysis. Therefore, lead-time bias is extremely important to correct for. Taking account of lead

Using selection bias to explain the observed structure of Internet diffusions

PubMed Central

Golub, Benjamin; Jackson, Matthew O.

2010-01-01

Recently, large datasets stored on the Internet have enabled the analysis of processes, such as large-scale diffusions of information, at new levels of detail. In a recent study, Liben-Nowell and Kleinberg [(2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:4633–4638] observed that the flow of information on the Internet exhibits surprising patterns whereby a chain letter reaches its typical recipient through long paths of hundreds of intermediaries. We show that a basic Galton–Watson epidemic model combined with the selection bias of observing only large diffusions suffices to explain these patterns. Thus, selection biases of which data we observe can radically change the estimation of classical diffusion processes. PMID:20534439

Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.

2007-12-01

Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.

Intuitive Choices Lead to Intensified Positive Emotions: An Overlooked Reason for "Intuition Bias"?

PubMed

Kirkebøen, Geir; Nordbye, Gro H H

2017-01-01

People have, for many well-documented reasons, a tendency to overemphasize their intuitions and to follow them, even when they should not. This "intuition bias" leads to several kinds of specific intuitive biases in judgments and decision making. Previous studies have shown that characteristics of the decision process have a tendency to "leak" into the experience of the choice outcome. We explore whether intuitive choices influence the experience of the choice outcomes differently from "non-intuitive," analytic choices. Since intuition is feeling based, we examine in particular if intuitive choices have stronger affective consequences than non-intuitive ones. Participants in two scenario studies ( N = 90; N = 126) rated the feelings of decision makers who experienced a conflict between two options, one intuitively appealing and another that appeared preferable on analytic grounds. Choosing the intuitive alternative was anticipated to lead to somewhat more regret after negative outcomes and, in particular, much more satisfaction with positive outcomes. In two autobiographical studies, one with psychology students ( N = 88) and the other with experienced engineers ( N = 99), participants were asked to provide examples of choice conflicts between an intuitive and a non-intuitive option from their own private or professional lives. Both groups showed a tendency to report stronger emotions, in particular positive, after intuitive choices. One well-established explanation for intuition bias focuses on the nature of people's anticipated negative counterfactual thoughts if their decisions were to turn out badly. The present data indicate that intuitive choices intensify positive emotions, anticipated and real, after successful outcomes much more than negative emotions after failures. Positive outcomes are also more commonly expected than negative ones, when we make choices. We argue that markedly amplified emotions, mediated by stronger personal involvement, in the

Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pauwels, V. R. N.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Intrinsic scatter of caustic masses and hydrostatic bias: An observational study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreon, S.; Trinchieri, G.; Moretti, A.; Wang, J.

2017-10-01

All estimates of cluster mass have some intrinsic scatter and perhaps some bias with true mass even in the absence of measurement errors for example caused by cluster triaxiality and large scale structure. Knowledge of the bias and scatter values is fundamental for both cluster cosmology and astrophysics. In this paper we show that the intrinsic scatter of a mass proxy can be constrained by measurements of the gas fraction because masses with higher values of intrinsic scatter with true mass produce more scattered gas fractions. Moreover, the relative bias of two mass estimates can be constrained by comparing the mean gas fraction at the same (nominal) cluster mass. Our observational study addresses the scatter between caustic (I.e., dynamically estimated) and true masses, and the relative bias of caustic and hydrostatic masses. For these purposes, we used the X-ray Unbiased Cluster Sample, a cluster sample selected independently from the intracluster medium content with reliable masses: 34 galaxy clusters in the nearby (0.050 < z < 0.135) Universe, mostly with 14 < log M500/M⊙ ≲ 14.5, and with caustic masses. We found a 35% scatter between caustic and true masses. Furthermore, we found that the relative bias between caustic and hydrostatic masses is small, 0.06 ± 0.05 dex, improving upon past measurements. The small scatter found confirms our previous measurements of a highly variable amount of feedback from cluster to cluster, which is the cause of the observed large variety of core-excised X-ray luminosities and gas masses.

Do Health Claims and Front-of-Pack Labels Lead to a Positivity Bias in Unhealthy Foods?

PubMed Central

Talati, Zenobia; Pettigrew, Simone; Dixon, Helen; Neal, Bruce; Ball, Kylie; Hughes, Clare

2016-01-01

Health claims and front-of-pack labels (FoPLs) may lead consumers to hold more positive attitudes and show a greater willingness to buy food products, regardless of their actual healthiness. A potential negative consequence of this positivity bias is the increased consumption of unhealthy foods. This study investigated whether a positivity bias would occur in unhealthy variations of four products (cookies, corn flakes, pizzas and yoghurts) that featured different health claim conditions (no claim, nutrient claim, general level health claim, and higher level health claim) and FoPL conditions (no FoPL, the Daily Intake Guide (DIG), Multiple Traffic Lights (MTL), and the Health Star Rating (HSR)). Positivity bias was assessed via measures of perceived healthiness, global evaluations (incorporating taste, quality, convenience, etc.) and willingness to buy. On the whole, health claims did not produce a positivity bias, while FoPLs did, with the DIG being the most likely to elicit this bias. The HSR most frequently led to lower ratings of unhealthy foods than the DIG and MTL, suggesting that this FoPL has the lowest risk of creating an inaccurate positivity bias in unhealthy foods. PMID:27918426

A double-observer method for reducing bias in faecal pellet surveys of forest ungulates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, K.J.; Manly, B.F.J.

2008-01-01

1. Faecal surveys are used widely to study variations in abundance and distribution of forest-dwelling mammals when direct enumeration is not feasible. The utility of faecal indices of abundance is limited, however, by observational bias and variation in faecal disappearance rates that obscure their relationship to population size. We developed methods to reduce variability in faecal surveys and improve reliability of faecal indices. 2. We used double-observer transect sampling to estimate observational bias of faecal surveys of Roosevelt elk Cervus elaphus roosevelti and Columbian black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in Olympic National Park, Washington, USA. We also modelled differences in counts of faecal groups obtained from paired cleared and uncleared transect segments as a means to adjust standing crop faecal counts for a standard accumulation interval and to reduce bias resulting from variable decay rates. 3. Estimated detection probabilities of faecal groups ranged from < 0.2-1.0 depending upon the observer, whether the faecal group was from elk or deer, faecal group size, distance of the faecal group from the sampling transect, ground vegetation cover, and the interaction between faecal group size and distance from the transect. 4. Models of plot-clearing effects indicated that standing crop counts of deer faecal groups required 34% reduction on flat terrain and 53% reduction on sloping terrain to represent faeces accumulated over a standard 100-day interval, whereas counts of elk faecal groups required 0% and 46% reductions on flat and sloping terrain, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Double-observer transect sampling provides a cost-effective means of reducing observational bias and variation in faecal decay rates that obscure the interpretation of faecal indices of large mammal abundance. Given the variation we observed in observational bias of faecal surveys and persistence of faeces, we emphasize the need for future

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjacques, Vincent; Jeong, Donghui; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-02-01

This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy statistics. We then review the excursion-set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

The Importance of Covariate Selection in Controlling for Selection Bias in Observational Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Peter M.; Cook, Thomas D.; Shadish, William R.; Clark, M. H.

2010-01-01

The assumption of strongly ignorable treatment assignment is required for eliminating selection bias in observational studies. To meet this assumption, researchers often rely on a strategy of selecting covariates that they think will control for selection bias. Theory indicates that the most important covariates are those highly correlated with…

Guilt leads to enhanced facing-the-viewer bias

PubMed Central

Shen, Mowei; Zhu, Chengfeng; Liao, Huayu; Zhang, Haihang; Zhou, Jifan

2018-01-01

As an important moral emotion, guilt plays a critical role in social interaction. It has been found that people tended to exhibit prosocial behavior under circumstances of guilt. However, all extant studies have predominantly focused on the influence of guilt on macro-level behavior. So far, no study has investigated whether guilt affects people’s micro-level perception. The current study closes this gap by examining whether guilt affects one’s inclination to perceive approaching motion. We achieved this aim by probing a facing-the-viewer bias (FTV bias). Specifically, when an ambiguous walking biological motion display is presented to participants via the point-light display technique, participants tend to perceive a walking agent approaching them. We hypothesized that guilt modulated FTV bias. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a two-person situation induction task to induce guilt, whereby participants were induced to feel that because of their poor task performance, their partner did not receive a satisfactory payment. We found that when participants were told that the perceived biological motion was motion-captured from their partner, the FTV bias was significantly increased for guilty participants relative to neutral participants. However, when participants were informed that the perceived biological motion was from a third neutral agent, the FTV bias was not modulated by guilt. These results suggest that guilt influences one’s inclination to perceive approaching motion, but this effect is constrained to the person towards whom guilt is directed. PMID:29649338

Bias correction by use of errors-in-variables regression models in studies with K-X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements.

PubMed

Lamadrid-Figueroa, Héctor; Téllez-Rojo, Martha M; Angeles, Gustavo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

In-vivo measurement of bone lead by means of K-X-ray fluorescence (KXRF) is the preferred biological marker of chronic exposure to lead. Unfortunately, considerable measurement error associated with KXRF estimations can introduce bias in estimates of the effect of bone lead when this variable is included as the exposure in a regression model. Estimates of uncertainty reported by the KXRF instrument reflect the variance of the measurement error and, although they can be used to correct the measurement error bias, they are seldom used in epidemiological statistical analyzes. Errors-in-variables regression (EIV) allows for correction of bias caused by measurement error in predictor variables, based on the knowledge of the reliability of such variables. The authors propose a way to obtain reliability coefficients for bone lead measurements from uncertainty data reported by the KXRF instrument and compare, by the use of Monte Carlo simulations, results obtained using EIV regression models vs. those obtained by the standard procedures. Results of the simulations show that Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression models provide severely biased estimates of effect, and that EIV provides nearly unbiased estimates. Although EIV effect estimates are more imprecise, their mean squared error is much smaller than that of OLS estimates. In conclusion, EIV is a better alternative than OLS to estimate the effect of bone lead when measured by KXRF. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fully correcting the meteor speed distribution for radar observing biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorhead, Althea V.; Brown, Peter G.; Campbell-Brown, Margaret D.; Heynen, Denis; Cooke, William J.

2017-09-01

Meteor radars such as the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) have the ability to detect millions of meteors, making it possible to study the meteoroid environment in great detail. However, meteor radars also suffer from a number of detection biases; these biases must be fully corrected for in order to derive an accurate description of the meteoroid population. We present a bias correction method for patrol radars that accounts for the full form of ionization efficiency and mass distribution. This is an improvement over previous methods such as that of Taylor (1995), which requires power-law distributions for ionization efficiency and a single mass index. We apply this method to the meteor speed distribution observed by CMOR and find a significant enhancement of slow meteors compared to earlier treatments. However, when the data set is severely restricted to include only meteors with very small uncertainties in speed, the fraction of slow meteors is substantially reduced, indicating that speed uncertainties must be carefully handled.

Development of pile foundation bias factors using observed behavior of platforms during Hurricane Andrew

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aggarwal, R.K.; Litton, R.W.; Cornell, C.A.

1996-12-31

The performance of more than 3,000 offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico was observed during the passage of Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. This event provided an opportunity to test the procedures used for platform analysis and design. A global bias was inferred for overall platform capacity and loads in the Andrew Joint Industry Project (JIP) Phase 1. It was predicted that the pile foundations of several platforms should have failed, but did not. These results indicated that the biases specific to foundation failure modes may be higher than those of jacket failure modes. The biases in predictions ofmore » foundation failure modes were therefore investigated further in this study. The work included capacity analysis and calibration of predictions with the observed behavior for 3 jacket platforms and 3 caissons using Bayesian updating. Bias factors for two foundation failure modes, lateral shear and overturning, were determined for each structure. Foundation capacity estimates using conventional methods were found to be conservatively biased overall.« less

Lower Risk of Death With SGLT2 Inhibitors in Observational Studies: Real or Bias?

PubMed

Suissa, Samy

2018-01-01

Two recent observational studies reported a remarkably lower rate of all-cause death associated with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (-SGLT2i) use in all patients with type 2 diabetes and not only those at increased cardiovascular risk. The >50% lower mortality rates reported in these studies are much greater than those found in the BI 10773 (Empagliflozin) Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and CANagliflozin cardioVascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) randomized trials. We show that these observational studies are affected by time-related biases, including immortal time bias and time-lag bias, which tend to exaggerate the benefits observed with a drug. The Comparative Effectiveness of Cardiovascular Outcomes in New Users of SGLT-2 Inhibitors (CVD-REAL) study, based on 166,033 users of SGLT2i and 1,226,221 users of other glucose-lowering drugs (oGLD) identified from health care databases of six countries, was affected by immortal time bias. Indeed, the immortal time between the first oGLD prescription and the first SGLT2i prescription was omitted from the analysis, which resulted in increasing the rate of death in the oGLD group and thus producing the appearance of a lower risk of death with SGLT2i use. The Swedish study compared 10,879 SGLT2i/dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) users with 10,879 matched insulin users. Such comparisons involving second-line therapies with a third-line therapy can introduce time-lag bias, as the patients may not be at the same stage of diabetes. This bias is compounded by the fact that the users of insulin had already started their insulin before cohort entry, unlike the new users of SGLT2i. Finally, the study also introduces immortal time bias with respect to the effects of SGLT2i relative to DPP-4i. In conclusion, the >50% lower rate of death with SGLT2i in type 2 diabetes reported by two recent observational studies is likely exaggerated by immortal time and time

Large-scale galaxy bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Donghui; Desjacques, Vincent; Schmidt, Fabian

2018-01-01

Here, we briefly introduce the key results of the recent review (arXiv:1611.09787), whose abstract is as following. This review presents a comprehensive overview of galaxy bias, that is, the statistical relation between the distribution of galaxies and matter. We focus on large scales where cosmic density fields are quasi-linear. On these scales, the clustering of galaxies can be described by a perturbative bias expansion, and the complicated physics of galaxy formation is absorbed by a finite set of coefficients of the expansion, called bias parameters. The review begins with a detailed derivation of this very important result, which forms the basis of the rigorous perturbative description of galaxy clustering, under the assumptions of General Relativity and Gaussian, adiabatic initial conditions. Key components of the bias expansion are all leading local gravitational observables, which include the matter density but also tidal fields and their time derivatives. We hence expand the definition of local bias to encompass all these contributions. This derivation is followed by a presentation of the peak-background split in its general form, which elucidates the physical meaning of the bias parameters, and a detailed description of the connection between bias parameters and galaxy (or halo) statistics. We then review the excursion set formalism and peak theory which provide predictions for the values of the bias parameters. In the remainder of the review, we consider the generalizations of galaxy bias required in the presence of various types of cosmological physics that go beyond pressureless matter with adiabatic, Gaussian initial conditions: primordial non-Gaussianity, massive neutrinos, baryon-CDM isocurvature perturbations, dark energy, and modified gravity. Finally, we discuss how the description of galaxy bias in the galaxies' rest frame is related to clustering statistics measured from the observed angular positions and redshifts in actual galaxy catalogs.

Biases and systematics in the observational derivation of galaxy properties: comparing different techniques on synthetic observations of simulated galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guidi, Giovanni; Scannapieco, Cecilia; Walcher, C. Jakob

2015-12-01

We study the sources of biases and systematics in the derivation of galaxy properties from observational studies, focusing on stellar masses, star formation rates, gas and stellar metallicities, stellar ages, magnitudes and colours. We use hydrodynamical cosmological simulations of galaxy formation, for which the real quantities are known, and apply observational techniques to derive the observables. We also analyse biases that are relevant for a proper comparison between simulations and observations. For our study, we post-process the simulation outputs to calculate the galaxies' spectral energy distributions (SEDs) using stellar population synthesis models and also generate the fully consistent far-UV-submillimetre wavelength SEDs with the radiative transfer code SUNRISE. We compared the direct results of simulations with the observationally derived quantities obtained in various ways, and found that systematic differences in all studied galaxy properties appear, which are caused by: (1) purely observational biases, (2) the use of mass-weighted and luminosity-weighted quantities, with preferential sampling of more massive and luminous regions, (3) the different ways of constructing the template of models when a fit to the spectra is performed, and (4) variations due to different calibrations, most notably for gas metallicities and star formation rates. Our results show that large differences can appear depending on the technique used to derive galaxy properties. Understanding these differences is of primary importance both for simulators, to allow a better judgement of similarities and differences with observations, and for observers, to allow a proper interpretation of the data.

A Nonlinear Spacecraft Attitude Controller and Observer with an Unknown Constant Gyro Bias and Gyro Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deutschmann, Julie; Sanner, Robert M.

2001-01-01

A nonlinear control scheme for attitude control of a spacecraft is combined with a nonlinear gyro bias observer for the case of constant gyro bias, in the presence of gyro noise. The observer bias estimates converge exponentially to a mean square bound determined by the standard deviation of the gyro noise. The resulting coupled, closed loop dynamics are proven to be globally stable, with asymptotic tracking which is also mean square bounded. A simulation of the proposed observer-controller design is given for a rigid spacecraft tracking a specified, time-varying attitude sequence to illustrate the theoretical claims.

Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

PubMed

Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

2016-06-21

When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

Towards identification of relevant variables in the observed aerosol optical depth bias between MODIS and AERONET observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, N. K.; Lary, D. J.; Gencaga, D.; Albayrak, A.; Wei, J.

2013-08-01

Measurements made by satellite remote sensing, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and globally distributed Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) are compared. Comparison of the two datasets measurements for aerosol optical depth values show that there are biases between the two data products. In this paper, we present a general framework towards identifying relevant set of variables responsible for the observed bias. We present a general framework to identify the possible factors influencing the bias, which might be associated with the measurement conditions such as the solar and sensor zenith angles, the solar and sensor azimuth, scattering angles, and surface reflectivity at the various measured wavelengths, etc. Specifically, we performed analysis for remote sensing Aqua-Land data set, and used machine learning technique, neural network in this case, to perform multivariate regression between the ground-truth and the training data sets. Finally, we used mutual information between the observed and the predicted values as the measure of similarity to identify the most relevant set of variables. The search is brute force method as we have to consider all possible combinations. The computations involves a huge number crunching exercise, and we implemented it by writing a job-parallel program.

Greek Physical Education Teachers' Gender Biases in Learning and Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mouratidou, Katerina; Barkoukis, Vassilis

2018-01-01

Gender biases have often been observed in physical education (PE) classes, as many teachers adopt a male-biased perspective in teaching and learning. This might affect their evaluation of students' behavior and may lead students to accept and reproduce gender biases in other social contexts. The aim of this study was to examine whether PE teachers…

Alleviating bias leads to accurate and personalized recommendation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Tian; Wang, Tian-Tian; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Zhong, Li-Xin; Chen, Guang

2013-11-01

Recommendation bias towards objects has been found to have an impact on personalized recommendation, since objects present heterogeneous characteristics in some network-based recommender systems. In this article, based on a biased heat conduction recommendation algorithm (BHC) which considers the heterogeneity of the target objects, we propose a heterogeneous heat conduction algorithm (HHC), by further taking the heterogeneity of the source objects into account. Tested on three real datasets, the Netflix, RYM and MovieLens, the HHC algorithm is found to present better recommendation in both the accuracy and diversity than two benchmark algorithms, i.e., the original BHC and a hybrid algorithm of heat conduction and mass diffusion (HHM), while not requiring any other accessorial information or parameter. Moreover, the HHC algorithm also elevates the recommendation accuracy on cold objects, referring to the so-called cold-start problem. Eigenvalue analyses show that, the HHC algorithm effectively alleviates the recommendation bias towards objects with different level of popularity, which is beneficial to solving the accuracy-diversity dilemma.

Ethnic bias and clinical decision-making among New Zealand medical students: an observational study.

PubMed

Harris, Ricci; Cormack, Donna; Stanley, James; Curtis, Elana; Jones, Rhys; Lacey, Cameron

2018-01-23

Health professional racial/ethnic bias may impact on clinical decision-making and contribute to subsequent ethnic health inequities. However, limited research has been undertaken among medical students. This paper presents findings from the Bias and Decision-Making in Medicine (BDMM) study, which sought to examine ethnic bias (Māori (indigenous peoples) compared with New Zealand European) among medical students and associations with clinical decision-making. All final year New Zealand (NZ) medical students in 2014 and 2015 (n = 888) were invited to participate in a cross-sectional online study. Key components included: two chronic disease vignettes (cardiovascular disease (CVD) and depression) with randomized patient ethnicity (Māori or NZ European) and questions on patient management; implicit bias measures (an ethnicity preference Implicit Association Test (IAT) and an ethnicity and compliant patient IAT); and, explicit ethnic bias questions. Associations between ethnic bias and clinical decision-making responses to vignettes were tested using linear regression. Three hundred and two students participated (34% response rate). Implicit and explicit ethnic bias favoring NZ Europeans was apparent among medical students. In the CVD vignette, no significant differences in clinical decision-making by patient ethnicity were observed. There were also no differential associations by patient ethnicity between any measures of ethnic bias (implicit or explicit) and patient management responses in the CVD vignette. In the depression vignette, some differences in the ranking of recommended treatment options were observed by patient ethnicity and explicit preference for NZ Europeans was associated with increased reporting that NZ European patients would benefit from treatment but not Māori (slope difference 0.34, 95% CI 0.08, 0.60; p = 0.011), although this was the only significant finding in these analyses. NZ medical students demonstrated ethnic bias, although

Obesity-Induced Metabolic Stress Leads to Biased Effector Memory CD4+ T Cell Differentiation via PI3K p110δ-Akt-Mediated Signals.

PubMed

Mauro, Claudio; Smith, Joanne; Cucchi, Danilo; Coe, David; Fu, Hongmei; Bonacina, Fabrizia; Baragetti, Andrea; Cermenati, Gaia; Caruso, Donatella; Mitro, Nico; Catapano, Alberico L; Ammirati, Enrico; Longhi, Maria P; Okkenhaug, Klaus; Norata, Giuseppe D; Marelli-Berg, Federica M

2017-03-07

Low-grade systemic inflammation associated to obesity leads to cardiovascular complications, caused partly by infiltration of adipose and vascular tissue by effector T cells. The signals leading to T cell differentiation and tissue infiltration during obesity are poorly understood. We tested whether saturated fatty acid-induced metabolic stress affects differentiation and trafficking patterns of CD4 + T cells. Memory CD4 + T cells primed in high-fat diet-fed donors preferentially migrated to non-lymphoid, inflammatory sites, independent of the metabolic status of the hosts. This was due to biased CD4 + T cell differentiation into CD44 hi -CCR7 lo -CD62L lo -CXCR3 + -LFA1 + effector memory-like T cells upon priming in high-fat diet-fed animals. Similar phenotype was observed in obese subjects in a cohort of free-living people. This developmental bias was independent of any crosstalk between CD4 + T cells and dendritic cells and was mediated via direct exposure of CD4 + T cells to palmitate, leading to increased activation of a PI3K p110δ-Akt-dependent pathway upon priming. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bias correction of daily satellite precipitation data using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, A. W.; Buono, A.; Hidayat, R.; Harsa, H.

2018-05-01

Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) was producted by blending Satellite-only Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation (CHIRP) with Stasion observations data. The blending process was aimed to reduce bias of CHIRP. However, Biases of CHIRPS on statistical moment and quantil values were high during wet season over Java Island. This paper presented a bias correction scheme to adjust statistical moment of CHIRP using observation precipitation data. The scheme combined Genetic Algorithm and Nonlinear Power Transformation, the results was evaluated based on different season and different elevation level. The experiment results revealed that the scheme robustly reduced bias on variance around 100% reduction and leaded to reduction of first, and second quantile biases. However, bias on third quantile only reduced during dry months. Based on different level of elevation, the performance of bias correction process is only significantly different on skewness indicators.

Immortal time bias in pharmaco-epidemiology.

PubMed

Suissa, Samy

2008-02-15

Immortal time is a span of cohort follow-up during which, because of exposure definition, the outcome under study could not occur. Bias from immortal time was first identified in the 1970s in epidemiology in the context of cohort studies of the survival benefit of heart transplantation. It recently resurfaced in pharmaco-epidemiology, with several observational studies reporting that various medications can be extremely effective at reducing morbidity and mortality. These studies, while using different cohort designs, all involved some form of immortal time and the corresponding bias. In this paper, the author describes various cohort study designs leading to this bias, quantifies its magnitude under different survival distributions, and illustrates it by using data from a cohort of lung cancer patients. The author shows that for time-based, event-based, and exposure-based cohort definitions, the bias in the rate ratio resulting from misclassified or excluded immortal time increases proportionately to the duration of immortal time. The bias is more pronounced with a decreasing hazard function for the outcome event, as illustrated with the Weibull distribution compared with a constant hazard from the exponential distribution. In conclusion, observational studies of drug benefit in which computerized databases are used must be designed and analyzed properly to avoid immortal time bias.

The facing bias in biological motion perception: Effects of stimulus gender and observer sex.

PubMed

Schouten, Ben; Troje, Nikolaus F; Brooks, Anna; van der Zwan, Rick; Verfaillie, Karl

2010-07-01

Under orthographic projection, biological motion point-light walkers offer no cues to the order of the dots in depth: Views from the front and from the back result in the very same stimulus. Yet observers show a bias toward seeing a walker facing the viewer (Vanrie, Dekeyser, & Verfaillie, 2004). Recently, we reported that this facing bias strongly depends on the gender of the walker (Brooks et al., 2008). The goal of the present study was, first, to examine the robustness of the effect by testing a much larger subject sample and, second, to investigate whether the effect depends on observer sex. Despite the fact that we found a significant effect of figure gender, we clearly failed to replicate the strong effect observed in the original study. We did, however, observe a significant interaction between figure gender and observer sex.

A bias-adjusted evidence synthesis of RCT and observational data: the case of total hip replacement.

PubMed

Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Iglesias, Cynthia P; Arvandi, Marjan; Ciani, Oriana; Matteucci Gothe, Raffaella; Peters, Jaime; Blom, Ashley W; Taylor, Rod S; Siebert, Uwe

2017-02-01

Evaluation of clinical effectiveness of medical devices differs in some aspects from the evaluation of pharmaceuticals. One of the main challenges identified is lack of robust evidence and a will to make use of experimental and observational studies (OSs) in quantitative evidence synthesis accounting for internal and external biases. Using a case study of total hip replacement to compare the risk of revision of cemented and uncemented implant fixation modalities, we pooled treatment effect estimates from OS and RCTs, and simplified existing methods for bias-adjusted evidence synthesis to enhance practical application. We performed an elicitation exercise using methodological and clinical experts to determine the strength of beliefs about the magnitude of internal and external bias affecting estimates of treatment effect. We incorporated the bias-adjusted treatment effects into a generalized evidence synthesis, calculating both frequentist and Bayesian statistical models. We estimated relative risks as summary effect estimates with 95% confidence/credibility intervals to capture uncertainty. When we compared alternative approaches to synthesizing evidence, we found that the pooled effect size strongly depended on the inclusion of observational data as well as on the use bias-adjusted estimates. We demonstrated the feasibility of using observational studies in meta-analyses to complement RCTs and incorporate evidence from a wider spectrum of clinically relevant studies and healthcare settings. To ensure internal validity, OS data require sufficient correction for confounding and selection bias, either through study design and primary analysis, or by applying post-hoc bias adjustments to the results. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Use of Propensity Scores and Observational Data to Estimate Randomized Controlled Trial Generalizability Bias

PubMed Central

Pressler, Taylor R.; Kaizar, Eloise E.

2014-01-01

While randomized controlled trials (RCT) are considered the “gold standard” for clinical studies, the use of exclusion criteria may impact the external validity of the results. It is unknown whether estimators of effect size are biased by excluding a portion of the target population from enrollment. We propose to use observational data to estimate the bias due to enrollment restrictions, which we term generalizability bias. In this paper we introduce a class of estimators for the generalizability bias and use simulation to study its properties in the presence of non-constant treatment effects. We find the surprising result that our estimators can be unbiased for the true generalizability bias even when all potentially confounding variables are not measured. In addition, our proposed doubly robust estimator performs well even for mis-specified models. PMID:23553373

AGCM Biases in Evaporation Regime: Impacts on Soil Moisture Memory and Land-Atmosphere Feedback

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahanama, Sarith P. P.; Koster, Randal D.

2005-01-01

Because precipitation and net radiation in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are typically biased relative to observations, the simulated evaporative regime of a region may be biased, with consequent negative effects on the AGCM s ability to translate an initialized soil moisture anomaly into an improved seasonal prediction. These potential problems are investigated through extensive offline analyses with the Mosaic land surface model (LSM). We first forced the LSM globally with a 15-year observations-based dataset. We then repeated the simulation after imposing a representative set of GCM climate biases onto the forcings - the observational forcings were scaled so that their mean seasonal cycles matched those simulated by the NSIPP-1 (NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) AGCM over the same period-The AGCM s climate biases do indeed lead to significant biases in evaporative regime in certain regions, with the expected impacts on soil moisture memory timescales. Furthermore, the offline simulations suggest that the biased forcing in the AGCM should contribute to overestimated feedback in certain parts of North America - parts already identified in previous studies as having excessive feedback. The present study thus supports the notion that the reduction of climate biases in the AGCM will lead to more appropriate translations of soil moisture initialization into seasonal prediction skill.

Neural Correlates of Racial Ingroup Bias in Observing Computer-Animated Social Encounters.

PubMed

Katsumi, Yuta; Dolcos, Sanda

2017-01-01

Despite evidence for the role of group membership in the neural correlates of social cognition, the mechanisms associated with processing non-verbal behaviors displayed by racially ingroup vs. outgroup members remain unclear. Here, 20 Caucasian participants underwent fMRI recording while observing social encounters with ingroup and outgroup characters displaying dynamic and static non-verbal behaviors. Dynamic behaviors included approach and avoidance behaviors, preceded or not by a handshake; both dynamic and static behaviors were followed by participants' ratings. Behaviorally, participants showed bias toward their ingroup members, demonstrated by faster/slower reaction times for evaluating ingroup static/approach behaviors, respectively. At the neural level, despite overall similar responses in the action observation network to ingroup and outgroup encounters, the medial prefrontal cortex showed dissociable activation, possibly reflecting spontaneous processing of ingroup static behaviors and positive evaluations of ingroup approach behaviors. The anterior cingulate and superior frontal cortices also showed sensitivity to race, reflected in coordinated and reduced activation for observing ingroup static behaviors. Finally, the posterior superior temporal sulcus showed uniquely increased activity to observing ingroup handshakes. These findings shed light on the mechanisms of racial ingroup bias in observing social encounters, and have implications for understanding factors related to successful interactions with individuals from diverse backgrounds.

Neural Correlates of Racial Ingroup Bias in Observing Computer-Animated Social Encounters

PubMed Central

Katsumi, Yuta; Dolcos, Sanda

2018-01-01

Despite evidence for the role of group membership in the neural correlates of social cognition, the mechanisms associated with processing non-verbal behaviors displayed by racially ingroup vs. outgroup members remain unclear. Here, 20 Caucasian participants underwent fMRI recording while observing social encounters with ingroup and outgroup characters displaying dynamic and static non-verbal behaviors. Dynamic behaviors included approach and avoidance behaviors, preceded or not by a handshake; both dynamic and static behaviors were followed by participants’ ratings. Behaviorally, participants showed bias toward their ingroup members, demonstrated by faster/slower reaction times for evaluating ingroup static/approach behaviors, respectively. At the neural level, despite overall similar responses in the action observation network to ingroup and outgroup encounters, the medial prefrontal cortex showed dissociable activation, possibly reflecting spontaneous processing of ingroup static behaviors and positive evaluations of ingroup approach behaviors. The anterior cingulate and superior frontal cortices also showed sensitivity to race, reflected in coordinated and reduced activation for observing ingroup static behaviors. Finally, the posterior superior temporal sulcus showed uniquely increased activity to observing ingroup handshakes. These findings shed light on the mechanisms of racial ingroup bias in observing social encounters, and have implications for understanding factors related to successful interactions with individuals from diverse backgrounds. PMID:29354042

A novel method for correcting scanline-observational bias of discontinuity orientation

PubMed Central

Huang, Lei; Tang, Huiming; Tan, Qinwen; Wang, Dingjian; Wang, Liangqing; Ez Eldin, Mutasim A. M.; Li, Changdong; Wu, Qiong

2016-01-01

Scanline observation is known to introduce an angular bias into the probability distribution of orientation in three-dimensional space. In this paper, numerical solutions expressing the functional relationship between the scanline-observational distribution (in one-dimensional space) and the inherent distribution (in three-dimensional space) are derived using probability theory and calculus under the independence hypothesis of dip direction and dip angle. Based on these solutions, a novel method for obtaining the inherent distribution (also for correcting the bias) is proposed, an approach which includes two procedures: 1) Correcting the cumulative probabilities of orientation according to the solutions, and 2) Determining the distribution of the corrected orientations using approximation methods such as the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The inherent distribution corrected by the proposed method can be used for discrete fracture network (DFN) modelling, which is applied to such areas as rockmass stability evaluation, rockmass permeability analysis, rockmass quality calculation and other related fields. To maximize the correction capacity of the proposed method, the observed sample size is suggested through effectiveness tests for different distribution types, dispersions and sample sizes. The performance of the proposed method and the comparison of its correction capacity with existing methods are illustrated with two case studies. PMID:26961249

Toward a synthesis of cognitive biases: how noisy information processing can bias human decision making.

PubMed

Hilbert, Martin

2012-03-01

A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades, hundreds of empirical studies have resulted in a variety of rules of thumb that specify how humans systematically deviate from what is normatively expected from their decisions. Several complementary generative mechanisms have been proposed to explain those cognitive biases. Here it is suggested that (at least) 8 of these empirically detected decision-making biases can be produced by simply assuming noisy deviations in the memory-based information processes that convert objective evidence (observations) into subjective estimates (decisions). An integrative framework is presented to show how similar noise-based mechanisms can lead to conservatism, the Bayesian likelihood bias, illusory correlations, biased self-other placement, subadditivity, exaggerated expectation, the confidence bias, and the hard-easy effect. Analytical tools from information theory are used to explore the nature and limitations that characterize such information processes for binary and multiary decision-making exercises. The ensuing synthesis offers formal mathematical definitions of the biases and their underlying generative mechanism, which permits a consolidated analysis of how they are related. This synthesis contributes to the larger goal of creating a coherent picture that explains the relations among the myriad of seemingly unrelated biases and their potential psychological generative mechanisms. Limitations and research questions are discussed.

Analysis of biases from parallel observations of co-located manual and automatic weather stations in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Fajariana, Yuaning; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Aprilina, Kharisma; Astuti Nuraini, Tri; Ummiyatul Badriyah, Imelda; Lukita Sari, Dyah; Haryoko, Urip

2017-04-01

Inhomogeneities are often found in long records of climate data. These can occur because of various reasons, among others such as relocation of observation site, changes in observation method, and the transition to automated instruments. Changes to these automated systems are inevitable, and it is taking place worldwide in many of the National Meteorological Services. However this shift of observational practice must be done cautiously and a sufficient period of parallel observation of co-located manual and automated systems should take place as suggested by the World Meteorological Organization. With a sufficient parallel observation period, biases between the two systems can be analyzed. In this study we analyze the biases of a yearlong parallel observation of manual and automatic weather stations in 30 locations in Indonesia. The location of the sites spans from east to west of approximately 45 longitudinal degrees covering different climate characteristics and geographical settings. We study measurements taken by both sensors for temperature and rainfall parameters. We found that the biases from both systems vary from place to place and are more dependent to the setting of the instrument rather than to the climatic and geographical factors. For instance, daytime observations of the automatic weather stations are found to be consistently higher than the manual observation, and vice versa night time observations of the automatic weather stations are lower than the manual observation.

Immortal time bias in observational studies of drug effects in pregnancy.

PubMed

Matok, Ilan; Azoulay, Laurent; Yin, Hui; Suissa, Samy

2014-09-01

The use of decongestants during the second or third trimesters of pregnancy has been associated with a decreased risk of preterm delivery in two observational studies. This effect may have been subject to immortal time bias, a bias arising from the improper classification of exposure during follow-up. We illustrate this bias by repeating the studies using a different data source. The United Kingdom Hospital Episodes Statistics and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink databases were linked to identify all live singleton pregnancies among women aged 15 to 45 years between 1997 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of preterm delivery (before 37 weeks of gestation) by considering the use of decongestants during the third trimester as a time-fixed (biased analysis which misclassifies unexposed person-time as exposed person-time) and time-varying exposure (unbiased analysis with proper classification of unexposed person-time). All models were adjusted for maternal age, smoking status, maternal diabetes, maternal hypertension, preeclampsia, and parity. Of the 195,582 singleton deliveries, 10,248 (5.2%) were born preterm. In the time-fixed analysis, the HR of preterm delivery for the use of decongestants was below the null and suggestive of a 46% decreased risk (adjusted HR = 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.20). In contrast, the HR was closer to null (adjusted HR = 0.93 95% confidence interval, 0.42-2.06) when the use of decongestants was treated as a time-varying variable. Studies of drug safety in pregnancy should use the appropriate statistical techniques to avoid immortal time bias, particularly when the exposure occurs at later stages of pregnancy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Temperature trend biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

2016-04-01

In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

Extending flood forecasting lead time in large basin by coupling bias-corrected WRF QPF with distributed hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, J.; Chen, Y.; Wang, H. Y.

2016-12-01

In large basin flood forecasting, the forecasting lead time is very important. Advances in numerical weather forecasting in the past decades provides new input to extend flood forecasting lead time in large rivers. Challenges for fulfilling this goal currently is that the uncertainty of QPF with these kinds of NWP models are still high, so controlling the uncertainty of QPF is an emerging technique requirement.The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is one of these NWPs, and how to control the QPF uncertainty of WRF is the research topic of many researchers among the meteorological community. In this study, the QPF products in the Liujiang river basin, a big river with a drainage area of 56,000 km2, was compared with the ground observation precipitation from a rain gauge networks firstly, and the results show that the uncertainty of the WRF QPF is relatively high. So a post-processed algorithm by correlating the QPF with the observed precipitation is proposed to remove the systematical bias in QPF. With this algorithm, the post-processed WRF QPF is close to the ground observed precipitation in area-averaged precipitation. Then the precipitation is coupled with the Liuxihe model, a physically based distributed hydrological model that is widely used in small watershed flash flood forecasting. The Liuxihe Model has the advantage with gridded precipitation from NWP and could optimize model parameters when there are some observed hydrological data even there is only a few, it also has very high model resolution to improve model performance, and runs on high performance supercomputer with parallel algorithm if executed in large rivers. Two flood events in the Liujiang River were collected, one was used to optimize the model parameters and another is used to validate the model. The results show that the river flow simulation has been improved largely, and could be used for real-time flood forecasting trail in extending flood forecasting leading time.

Calibration of colour gradient bias in shear measurement using HST/CANDELS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Er, X.; Hoekstra, H.; Schrabback, T.; Cardone, V. F.; Scaramella, R.; Maoli, R.; Vicinanza, M.; Gillis, B.; Rhodes, J.

2018-06-01

Accurate shape measurements are essential to infer cosmological parameters from large area weak gravitational lensing studies. The compact diffraction-limited point spread function (PSF) in space-based observations is greatly beneficial, but its chromaticity for a broad-band observation can lead to new subtle effects that could hitherto be ignored: the PSF of a galaxy is no longer uniquely defined and spatial variations in the colours of galaxies result in biases in the inferred lensing signal. Taking Euclid as a reference, we show that this colour gradient bias (CG bias) can be quantified with high accuracy using available multicolour Hubble Space Telescope (HST) data. In particular we study how noise in the HST observations might impact such measurements and find this to be negligible. We determine the CG bias using HST observations in the F606W and F814W filters and observe a correlation with the colour, in line with expectations, whereas the dependence with redshift is weak. The biases for individual galaxies are generally well below 1 per cent, which may be reduced further using morphological information from the Euclid data. Our results demonstrate that CG bias should not be ignored, but it is possible to determine its amplitude with sufficient precision, so that it will not significantly bias the weak lensing measurements using Euclid data.

Biases in Long-term NO2 Averages Inferred from Satellite Observations Due to Cloud Selection Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geddes, Jeffrey A.; Murphy, Jennifer G.; O'Brien, Jason M.; Celarier, Edward A.

2012-01-01

Retrievals of atmospheric trace gas column densities from space are compromised by the presence of clouds, requiring most studies to exclude observations with significant cloud fractions in the instrument's field of view. Using NO2 observations at three ground stations representing urban, suburban, and rural environments, and tropospheric vertical column densities measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) over each site, we show that the observations from space represent monthly averaged ground-level pollutant conditions well (R=0.86) under relatively cloud-free conditions. However, by analyzing the ground-level data and applying the OMI cloud fraction as a filter, we show there is a significant bias in long-term averaged NO2 as a result of removing the data during cloudy conditions. For the ground-based sites considered in this study, excluding observations on days when OMI-derived cloud fractions were greater than 0.2 causes 12:00-14:00 mean summer mixing ratios to be underestimated by 12%+/-6%, 20%+/-7%, and 40%+/-10% on average (+/-1 standard deviation) at the urban, suburban, and rural sites respectively. This bias was investigated in particular at the rural site, a region where pollutant transport is the main source of NO2, and where longterm observations of NOy were also available. Evidence of changing photochemical conditions and a correlation between clear skies and the transport of cleaner air masses play key roles in explaining the bias. The magnitude of a bias is expected to vary from site to site depending on meteorology and proximity to NOx sources, and decreases when longer averaging times of ground station data (e.g. 24-h) are used for the comparison.

Unconscious gender bias in fame judgments?

PubMed

Buchner, A; Wippich, W

1996-01-01

In two experiments the conditions of, and the processes leading to, gender biases in fame judgments were investigated. In Experiment 1, the gender bias was not reduced in a condition that alerted participants to the gender of the names. In Experiment 2, participants' sex-role orientation, but not their gender, was related to the gender bias. The process dissociation procedure was used in both experiments in an attempt to separate conscious and unconscious memory processes contributing to the gender bias. Using L.L. Jacoby's 1991) original measurement model there appeared to be evidence for unconscious influences on the gender bias in fame judgments. Unfortunately, this evidence disappeared when a model was used that takes guessing and, hence, response biases into account, which confirms that measurement models that ignore response biases in the process dissociation procedure may lead to erroneous conclusions.

Applying signal-detection theory to the study of observer accuracy and bias in behavioral assessment.

PubMed

Lerman, Dorothea C; Tetreault, Allison; Hovanetz, Alyson; Bellaci, Emily; Miller, Jonathan; Karp, Hilary; Mahmood, Angela; Strobel, Maggie; Mullen, Shelley; Keyl, Alice; Toupard, Alexis

2010-01-01

We evaluated the feasibility and utility of a laboratory model for examining observer accuracy within the framework of signal-detection theory (SDT). Sixty-one individuals collected data on aggression while viewing videotaped segments of simulated teacher-child interactions. The purpose of Experiment 1 was to determine if brief feedback and contingencies for scoring accurately would bias responding reliably. Experiment 2 focused on one variable (specificity of the operational definition) that we hypothesized might decrease the likelihood of bias. The effects of social consequences and information about expected behavior change were examined in Experiment 3. Results indicated that feedback and contingencies reliably biased responding and that the clarity of the definition only moderately affected this outcome.

Hindsight Bias and Outcome-Consistent Thoughts when Observing and Making Service Provider Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louie, Therese A.

2005-01-01

Two studies examined the relationship between hindsight bias and corresponding open-ended thoughts for decisions in a service provider setting. Perspectives of those observing and making decisions were examined. In study 1, business students who learned the results of a financial advisor's stock purchase showed the traditional hindsight effect…

Mixture models reveal multiple positional bias types in RNA-Seq data and lead to accurate transcript concentration estimates.

PubMed

Tuerk, Andreas; Wiktorin, Gregor; Güler, Serhat

2017-05-01

Accuracy of transcript quantification with RNA-Seq is negatively affected by positional fragment bias. This article introduces Mix2 (rd. "mixquare"), a transcript quantification method which uses a mixture of probability distributions to model and thereby neutralize the effects of positional fragment bias. The parameters of Mix2 are trained by Expectation Maximization resulting in simultaneous transcript abundance and bias estimates. We compare Mix2 to Cufflinks, RSEM, eXpress and PennSeq; state-of-the-art quantification methods implementing some form of bias correction. On four synthetic biases we show that the accuracy of Mix2 overall exceeds the accuracy of the other methods and that its bias estimates converge to the correct solution. We further evaluate Mix2 on real RNA-Seq data from the Microarray and Sequencing Quality Control (MAQC, SEQC) Consortia. On MAQC data, Mix2 achieves improved correlation to qPCR measurements with a relative increase in R2 between 4% and 50%. Mix2 also yields repeatable concentration estimates across technical replicates with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 47% and reduced standard deviation across the full concentration range. We further observe more accurate detection of differential expression with a relative increase in true positives between 74% and 378% for 5% false positives. In addition, Mix2 reveals 5 dominant biases in MAQC data deviating from the common assumption of a uniform fragment distribution. On SEQC data, Mix2 yields higher consistency between measured and predicted concentration ratios. A relative error of 20% or less is obtained for 51% of transcripts by Mix2, 40% of transcripts by Cufflinks and RSEM and 30% by eXpress. Titration order consistency is correct for 47% of transcripts for Mix2, 41% for Cufflinks and RSEM and 34% for eXpress. We, further, observe improved repeatability across laboratory sites with a relative increase in R2 between 8% and 44% and reduced standard deviation.

Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias.

PubMed

McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

2016-01-01

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%-rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs.

Conservative Tests under Satisficing Models of Publication Bias

PubMed Central

McCrary, Justin; Christensen, Garret; Fanelli, Daniele

2016-01-01

Publication bias leads consumers of research to observe a selected sample of statistical estimates calculated by producers of research. We calculate critical values for statistical significance that could help to adjust after the fact for the distortions created by this selection effect, assuming that the only source of publication bias is file drawer bias. These adjusted critical values are easy to calculate and differ from unadjusted critical values by approximately 50%—rather than rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 2, the analysis suggests rejecting a null hypothesis when the t-ratio exceeds 3. Samples of published social science research indicate that on average, across research fields, approximately 30% of published t-statistics fall between the standard and adjusted cutoffs. PMID:26901834

A Mixed Phase Tale: New Ways of using in-situ cloud observations to reduce climate model biases in Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gettelman, A.; Stith, J. L.

2014-12-01

Southern ocean clouds are a critical part of the earth's energy budget, and significant biases in the climatology of these clouds exist in models used to predict climate change. We compare in situ measurements of cloud microphysical properties of ice and liquid over the S. Ocean with constrained output from the atmospheric component of an Earth System Model. Observations taken during the HIAPER (the NSF/NCAR G-V aircraft) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) multi-year field campaign are compared with simulations from the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Remarkably, CESM is able to accurately simulate the locations of cloud formation, and even cloud microphysical properties are comparable between the model and observations. Significantly, the simulations do not predict sufficient supercooled liquid. Altering the model cloud and aerosol processes to better reproduce the observations of supercooled liquid acts to reduce long-standing biases in S. Ocean clouds in CESM, which are typical of other models. Furthermore, sensitivity tests show where better observational constraints on aerosols and cloud microphysics can reduce uncertainty and biases in global models. These results are intended to show how we can connect large scale simulations with field observations in the S. Ocean to better understand Southern Ocean cloud processes and reduce biases in global climate simulations.

Biased learning affects mate choice in a butterfly.

PubMed

Westerman, Erica L; Hodgins-Davis, Andrea; Dinwiddie, April; Monteiro, Antónia

2012-07-03

Early acquisition of mate preferences or mate-preference learning is associated with signal diversity and speciation in a wide variety of animal species. However, the diversity of mechanisms of mate-preference learning across taxa remains poorly understood. Using the butterfly Bicyclus anynana we uncover a mechanism that can lead to directional sexual selection via mate-preference learning: a bias in learning enhanced ornamentation, which is independent of preexisting mating biases. Naïve females mated preferentially with wild-type males over males with enhanced wing ornamentation, but females briefly exposed to enhanced males mated significantly more often with enhanced males. In contrast, females exposed to males with reduced wing ornamentation did not learn to prefer drab males. Thus, we observe both a learned change of a preexisting mating bias, and a bias in ability to learn enhanced male ornaments over reduced ornaments. Our findings demonstrate that females are able to change their preferences in response to a single social event, and suggest a role for biased learning in the evolution of visual sexual ornamentation.

Is there scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Putter, Roland; Doré, Olivier; Green, Daniel, E-mail: rdputter@caltech.edu, E-mail: Olivier.P.Dore@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: drgreen@cita.utoronto.ca

2015-10-01

Scale-dependent halo bias due to local primordial non-Gaussianity provides a strong test of single-field inflation. While it is universally understood that single-field inflation predicts negligible scale-dependent bias compared to current observational uncertainties, there is still disagreement on the exact level of scale-dependent bias at a level that could strongly impact inferences made from future surveys. In this paper, we clarify this confusion and derive in various ways that there is exactly zero scale-dependent bias in single-field inflation. Much of the current confusion follows from the fact that single-field inflation does predict a mode coupling of matter perturbations at the levelmore » of f{sub NL}{sup local}; ≈ −5/3, which naively would lead to scale-dependent bias. However, we show explicitly that this mode coupling cancels out when perturbations are evaluated at a fixed physical scale rather than fixed coordinate scale. Furthermore, we show how the absence of scale-dependent bias can be derived easily in any gauge. This result can then be incorporated into a complete description of the observed galaxy clustering, including the previously studied general relativistic terms, which are important at the same level as scale-dependent bias of order f{sub NL}{sup local} ∼ 1. This description will allow us to draw unbiased conclusions about inflation from future galaxy clustering data.« less

Lax decision criteria lead to negativity bias: evidence from the emotional stroop task.

PubMed

Liu, Guofang; Xin, Ziqiang; Lin, Chongde

2014-06-01

Negativity bias means that negative information is usually given more emphasis than comparable positive information. Under signal detection theory, recent research found that people more frequently and incorrectly identify negative task-related words as having been presented originally than positive words, even when they were not presented. That is, people have lax decision criteria for negative words. However, the response biases for task-unrelated negative words and for emotionally important words are still unclear. This study investigated response bias for these two kinds of words. Study 1 examined the response bias for task-unrelated negative words using an emotional Stroop task. Proportions of correct recognition to negative and positive words were assessed by non-parametric signal detection analysis. Participants have lower (i.e., more lax) decision criteria for task-unrelated negative words than for positive words. Study 2 supported and expanded this result by investigating participants' response bias for highly emotional words. Participants have lower decision criteria for highly emotional words than for less emotional words. Finally, possible evolutionary sources of the response bias were discussed.

Validation of a weather forecast model at radiance level against satellite observations allowing quantification of temperature, humidity, and cloud-related biases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bani Shahabadi, Maziar; Huang, Yi; Garand, Louis; Heilliette, Sylvain; Yang, Ping

2016-09-01

An established radiative transfer model (RTM) is adapted for simulating all-sky infrared radiance spectra from the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model in order to validate its forecasts at the radiance level against Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) observations. Synthetic spectra are generated for 2 months from short-term (3-9 h) GEM forecasts. The RTM uses a monthly climatological land surface emissivity/reflectivity atlas. An updated ice particle optical property library was introduced for cloudy radiance calculations. Forward model brightness temperature (BT) biases are assessed to be of the order of ˜1 K for both clear-sky and overcast conditions. To quantify GEM forecast meteorological variables biases, spectral sensitivity kernels are generated and used to attribute radiance biases to surface and atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric humidity, and clouds biases. The kernel method, supplemented with retrieved profiles based on AIRS observations in collocation with a microwave sounder, achieves good closure in explaining clear-sky radiance biases, which are attributed mostly to surface temperature and upper tropospheric water vapor biases. Cloudy-sky radiance biases are dominated by cloud-induced radiance biases. Prominent GEM biases are identified as: (1) too low surface temperature over land, causing about -5 K bias in the atmospheric window region; (2) too high upper tropospheric water vapor, inducing about -3 K bias in the water vapor absorption band; (3) too few high clouds in the convective regions, generating about +10 K bias in window band and about +6 K bias in the water vapor band.

Risk of bias and confounding of observational studies of Zika virus infection: A scoping review of research protocols

PubMed Central

Haby, Michelle M.; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Pinzón-Flores, Carlos E.; Smith, Emma; Pinart, Mariona; Broutet, Nathalie; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.

2017-01-01

Introduction Given the severity and impact of the current Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas, numerous countries have rushed to develop research studies to assess ZIKV and its potential health consequences. In an effort to ensure that studies are comprehensive, both internally and externally valid, and with reliable results, the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Institut Pasteur, the networks of Fiocruz, the Consortia for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (CONSISE) and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) have generated six standardized clinical and epidemiological research protocols and questionnaires to address key public health questions on ZIKV. Methods We conducted a systematic search of ongoing study protocols related to ZIKV research. We analyzed the content of protocols of 32 cohort studies and 13 case control studies for systematic bias that could produce erroneous results. Additionally we aimed to characterize the risks of bias and confounding in observational studies related to ZIKV and to propose ways to minimize them, including the use of six newly standardized research protocols. Results Observational studies of ZIKV face an array of challenges, including measurement of exposure and outcomes (microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome). Potential confounders need to be measured where known and controlled for in the analysis. Selection bias due to non-random selection is a significant issue, particularly in the case-control design, and losses to follow-up is equally important for the cohort design. Conclusion Observational research seeking to answer key questions on the ZIKV should consider these restrictions and take precautions to minimize bias in an effort to provide reliable and valid results. Utilization of the standardized research protocols developed by the WHO, PAHO, Institut Pasteur, and CONSISE will harmonize the key methodological aspects

Risk of bias and confounding of observational studies of Zika virus infection: A scoping review of research protocols.

PubMed

Reveiz, Ludovic; Haby, Michelle M; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Pinzón-Flores, Carlos E; Elias, Vanessa; Smith, Emma; Pinart, Mariona; Broutet, Nathalie; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Van Kerkhove, Maria D

2017-01-01

Given the severity and impact of the current Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas, numerous countries have rushed to develop research studies to assess ZIKV and its potential health consequences. In an effort to ensure that studies are comprehensive, both internally and externally valid, and with reliable results, the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Institut Pasteur, the networks of Fiocruz, the Consortia for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (CONSISE) and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) have generated six standardized clinical and epidemiological research protocols and questionnaires to address key public health questions on ZIKV. We conducted a systematic search of ongoing study protocols related to ZIKV research. We analyzed the content of protocols of 32 cohort studies and 13 case control studies for systematic bias that could produce erroneous results. Additionally we aimed to characterize the risks of bias and confounding in observational studies related to ZIKV and to propose ways to minimize them, including the use of six newly standardized research protocols. Observational studies of ZIKV face an array of challenges, including measurement of exposure and outcomes (microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome). Potential confounders need to be measured where known and controlled for in the analysis. Selection bias due to non-random selection is a significant issue, particularly in the case-control design, and losses to follow-up is equally important for the cohort design. Observational research seeking to answer key questions on the ZIKV should consider these restrictions and take precautions to minimize bias in an effort to provide reliable and valid results. Utilization of the standardized research protocols developed by the WHO, PAHO, Institut Pasteur, and CONSISE will harmonize the key methodological aspects of each study design to minimize bias at

Observation Impacts for Longer Forecast Lead-Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, R.; Gelaro, R.; Todling, R.

2013-12-01

Observation impact on forecasts evaluated using adjoint-based techniques (e.g. Langland and Baker, 2004) are limited by the validity of the assumptions underlying the forecasting model adjoint. Most applications of this approach have focused on deriving observation impacts on short-range forecasts (e.g. 24-hour) in part to stay well within linearization assumptions. The most widely used measure of observation impact relies on the availability of the analysis for verifying the forecasts. As pointed out by Gelaro et al. (2007), and more recently by Todling (2013), this introduces undesirable correlations in the measure that are likely to affect the resulting assessment of the observing system. Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012) introduced a technique that, in principle, allows extending the validity of tangent linear and corresponding adjoint models to longer lead-times, thereby reducing the correlations in the measures used for observation impact assessments. The methodology provides the means to better represent linearized models by making use of Gaussian quadrature relations to handle various underlying non-linear model trajectories. The formulation is exact for particular bi-linear dynamics; it corresponds to an approximation for general-type nonlinearities and must be tested for large atmospheric models. The present work investigates the approach of Stappers and Barkmeijer (2012)in the context of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The goal is to calculate observation impacts in the GEOS-5 ADAS for forecast lead-times of at least 48 hours in order to reduce the potential for undesirable correlations that occur at shorter forecast lead times. References [1]Langland, R. H., and N. L. Baker, 2004: Estimation of observation impact using the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation adjoint system. Tellus, 56A, 189-201. [2] Gelaro, R., Y. Zhu, and R. M. Errico, 2007: Examination of various

Suppression of turbulent particle flux during biased rotation in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. A.

2005-10-01

The edge plasma in LAPD is rotated through the application of a bias voltage (typically 100V-200V) between the plasma source cathode and the vacuum vessel wall. Without bias, cross-field turbulent particle transport causes the density profile to extend well past the cathode edge, with a fairly gentle gradient (Ln˜10 cm). As the bias voltage is applied and increased past a threshold value, the measured density profile steepens dramatically (Ln˜2 cm) at a radius near the peak of the flow shear. Turbulent transport flux measurements in this region show that the flux is reduced and then suppressed completely as the threshold is approached. As the bias voltage is increased further, the measured turbulent transport flux reverses direction. The amplitude of the density and azimuthal electric field fluctuations is observed to decrease during biased rotation, the product of the amplitudes decreasing by a factor of 5. However the dominant change appears in the cross-phase, which is altered dramatically, leading to the observed suppression and reversal of the turbulent flux. Detailed two-dimensional turbulent correlation measurements have been performed using the high repetition rate (1 Hz) and high reproducibility of LAPD plasmas. In unbiased plasmas, the correlation is localized to around 5 cm radially and a slightly smaller distance azimuthally (ρs˜0.5-1 cm). During biased rotation, a dramatic increase in the azimuthal correlation is observed, however there is little change in the radial correlation length.

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sedlak, J.

1995-01-01

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are

Specifying a target trial prevents immortal time bias and other self-inflicted injuries in observational analyses

PubMed Central

Hernán, Miguel A.; Sauer, Brian C.; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; Platt, Robert; Shrier, Ian

2016-01-01

Many analyses of observational data are attempts to emulate a target trial. The emulation of the target trial may fail when researchers deviate from simple principles that guide the design and analysis of randomized experiments. We review a framework to describe and prevent biases, including immortal time bias, that result from a failure to align start of follow-up, specification of eligibility, and treatment assignment. We review some analytic approaches to avoid these problems in comparative effectiveness or safety research. PMID:27237061

The role of kinetic context in apparent biased agonism at GPCRs

PubMed Central

Klein Herenbrink, Carmen; Sykes, David A.; Donthamsetti, Prashant; Canals, Meritxell; Coudrat, Thomas; Shonberg, Jeremy; Scammells, Peter J.; Capuano, Ben; Sexton, Patrick M.; Charlton, Steven J.; Javitch, Jonathan A.; Christopoulos, Arthur; Lane, J. Robert

2016-01-01

Biased agonism describes the ability of ligands to stabilize different conformations of a GPCR linked to distinct functional outcomes and offers the prospect of designing pathway-specific drugs that avoid on-target side effects. This mechanism is usually inferred from pharmacological data with the assumption that the confounding influences of observational (that is, assay dependent) and system (that is, cell background dependent) bias are excluded by experimental design and analysis. Here we reveal that ‘kinetic context', as determined by ligand-binding kinetics and the temporal pattern of receptor-signalling processes, can have a profound influence on the apparent bias of a series of agonists for the dopamine D2 receptor and can even lead to reversals in the direction of bias. We propose that kinetic context must be acknowledged in the design and interpretation of studies of biased agonism. PMID:26905976

Social exclusion leads to attentional bias to emotional social information: Evidence from eye movement

PubMed Central

Xiang, Min; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Shuyue

2017-01-01

Social exclusion has many effects on individuals, including the increased need to belong and elevated sensitivity to social information. Using a self-reporting method, and an eye-tracking technique, this study explored people’s need to belong and attentional bias towards the socio-emotional information (pictures of positive and negative facial expressions compared to those of emotionally-neutral expressions) after experiencing a brief episode of social exclusion. We found that: (1) socially-excluded individuals reported higher negative emotions, lower positive emotions, and stronger need to belong than those who were not socially excluded; (2) compared to a control condition, social exclusion caused a longer response time to probe dots after viewing positive or negative face images; (3) social exclusion resulted in a higher frequency ratio of first attentional fixation on both positive and negative emotional facial pictures (but not on the neutral pictures) than the control condition; (4) in the social exclusion condition, participants showed shorter first fixation latency and longer first fixation duration to positive pictures than neutral ones but this effect was not observed for negative pictures; (5) participants who experienced social exclusion also showed longer gazing duration on the positive pictures than those who did not; although group differences also existed for the negative pictures, the gaze duration bias from both groups showed no difference from chance. This study demonstrated the emotional response to social exclusion as well as characterising multiple eye-movement indicators of attentional bias after experiencing social exclusion. PMID:29040279

Social exclusion leads to attentional bias to emotional social information: Evidence from eye movement.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuohao; Du, Jinchen; Xiang, Min; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Shuyue

2017-01-01

Social exclusion has many effects on individuals, including the increased need to belong and elevated sensitivity to social information. Using a self-reporting method, and an eye-tracking technique, this study explored people's need to belong and attentional bias towards the socio-emotional information (pictures of positive and negative facial expressions compared to those of emotionally-neutral expressions) after experiencing a brief episode of social exclusion. We found that: (1) socially-excluded individuals reported higher negative emotions, lower positive emotions, and stronger need to belong than those who were not socially excluded; (2) compared to a control condition, social exclusion caused a longer response time to probe dots after viewing positive or negative face images; (3) social exclusion resulted in a higher frequency ratio of first attentional fixation on both positive and negative emotional facial pictures (but not on the neutral pictures) than the control condition; (4) in the social exclusion condition, participants showed shorter first fixation latency and longer first fixation duration to positive pictures than neutral ones but this effect was not observed for negative pictures; (5) participants who experienced social exclusion also showed longer gazing duration on the positive pictures than those who did not; although group differences also existed for the negative pictures, the gaze duration bias from both groups showed no difference from chance. This study demonstrated the emotional response to social exclusion as well as characterising multiple eye-movement indicators of attentional bias after experiencing social exclusion.

Evaluation of the Relative Contribution of Observing Systems in Reanalyses: Aircraft Temperature Bias and Analysis Innovations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Dasilva, Arindo M.

2012-01-01

Reanalyses have become important sources of data in weather and climate research. While observations are the most crucial component of the systems, few research projects consider carefully the multitudes of assimilated observations and their impact on the results. This is partly due to the diversity of observations and their individual complexity, but also due to the unfriendly nature of the data formats. Here, we discuss the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and a companion dataset, the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO). GIO is simply a post-processing of the assimilated observations and their innovations (forecast error and analysis error) to a common spatio-temporal grid, following that of the MERRA analysis fields. This data includes in situ, retrieved and radiance observations that are assimilated and used in the reanalysis. While all these disparate observations and statistics are in a uniform easily accessible format, there are some limitations. Similar observations are binned to the grid, so that multiple observations are combined in the gridding process. The data is then implicitly thinned. Some details in the meta data may also be lost (e.g. aircraft or station ID). Nonetheless, the gridded observations should provide easy access to all the observations input to the reanalysis. To provide an example of the GIO data, a case study evaluating observing systems over the United States and statistics is presented, and demonstrates the evaluation of the observations and the data assimilation. The GIO data is used to collocate 200mb Radiosonde and Aircraft temperature measurements from 1979-2009. A known warm bias of the aircraft measurements is apparent compared to the radiosonde data. However, when larger quantities of aircraft data are available, they dominate the analysis and the radiosonde data become biased against the forecast. When AMSU radiances become available the radiosonde and aircraft analysis and

Complete depletion of primordial germ cells in an All-female fish leads to Sex-biased gene expression alteration and sterile All-male occurrence.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Li, Shi-Zhu; Li, Zhi; Wang, Yang; Li, Xi-Yin; Zhong, Jian-Xiang; Zhang, Xiao-Juan; Zhang, Jun; Zhou, Li; Gui, Jian-Fang

2015-11-18

Gynogenesis is one of unisexual reproduction modes in vertebrates, and produces all-female individuals with identical genetic background. In sexual reproduction vertebrates, the roles of primordial germ cells on sexual dimorphism and gonadal differentiation have been largely studied, and two distinct functional models have been proposed. However, the role of primordial germ cells remains unknown in unisexual animals, and it is also unclear whether the functional models in sexual reproduction animals are common in unisexual animals. To solve these puzzles, we attempt to utilize the gynogenetic superiority of polyploid Carassius gibelio to create a complete germ cell-depleted gonad model by a similar morpholino-mediated knockdown approach used in other examined sexual reproduction fishes. Through the germ cell-depleted gonad model, we have performed comprehensive and comparative transcriptome analysis, and revealed a complete alteration of sex-biased gene expression. Moreover, the expression alteration leads to up-regulation of testis-biased genes and down-regulation of ovary-biased genes, and results in the occurrence of sterile all-males with testis-like gonads and secondary sex characteristics in the germ cell-depleted gynogenetic Carassius gibelio. Our current results have demonstrated that unisexual gynogenetic embryos remain keeping male sex determination information in the genome, and the complete depletion of primordial germ cells in the all-female fish leads to sex-biased gene expression alteration and sterile all-male occurrence.

Specifying a target trial prevents immortal time bias and other self-inflicted injuries in observational analyses.

PubMed

Hernán, Miguel A; Sauer, Brian C; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; Platt, Robert; Shrier, Ian

2016-11-01

Many analyses of observational data are attempts to emulate a target trial. The emulation of the target trial may fail when researchers deviate from simple principles that guide the design and analysis of randomized experiments. We review a framework to describe and prevent biases, including immortal time bias, that result from a failure to align start of follow-up, specification of eligibility, and treatment assignment. We review some analytic approaches to avoid these problems in comparative effectiveness or safety research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is there gender bias in nursing research?

PubMed

Polit, Denise F; Beck, Cheryl Tatano

2008-10-01

Using data from a consecutive sample of 259 studies published in four leading nursing research journals in 2005-2006, we examined whether nurse researchers favor females as study participants. On average, 75.3% of study participants were female, and 38% of studies had all-female samples. The bias favoring female participants was statistically significant and persistent. The bias was observed regardless of funding source, methodological features, and other participant and researcher characteristics, with one exception: studies that had male investigators had more sex-balanced samples. When designing studies, nurse researchers need to pay close attention to who will benefit from their research and to whether they are leaving out a specific group about which there is a gap in knowledge. (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Observational drawing biases are predicted by biases in perception: Empirical support of the misperception hypothesis of drawing accuracy with respect to two angle illusions.

PubMed

Ostrofsky, Justin; Kozbelt, Aaron; Cohen, Dale J

2015-01-01

We tested the misperception hypothesis of drawing errors, which states that drawing accuracy is strongly influenced by the perceptual encoding of a to-be-drawn stimulus. We used a highly controlled experimental paradigm in which nonartist participants made perceptual judgements and drawings of angles under identical stimulus exposure conditions. Experiment 1 examined the isosceles/scalene triangle angle illusion; congruent patterns of bias in the perception and drawing tasks were found for 40 and 60° angles, but not for 20 or 80° angles, providing mixed support for the misperception hypothesis. Experiment 2 examined shape constancy effects with respect to reproductions of single acute or obtuse angles; congruent patterns of bias in the perception and drawing tasks were found across a range of angles from 29 to 151°, providing strong support for the misperception hypothesis. In both experiments, perceptual and drawing biases were positively correlated. These results are largely consistent with the misperception hypothesis, suggesting that inaccurate perceptual encoding of angles is an important reason that nonartists err in drawing angles from observation.

Handling the satellite inter-frequency biases in triple-frequency observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lewen; Ye, Shirong; Song, Jia

2017-04-01

The new generation of GNSS satellites, including BDS, Galileo, modernized GPS, and GLONASS, transmit navigation sdata at more frequencies. Multi-frequency signals open new prospects for precise positioning, but satellite code and phase inter-frequency biases (IFB) induced by the third frequency need to be handled. Satellite code IFB can be corrected using products estimated by different strategies, the theoretical and numerical compatibility of these methods need to be proved. Furthermore, a new type of phase IFB, which changes with the relative sun-spacecraft-earth geometry, has been observed. It is necessary to investigate the cause and possible impacts of phase Time-variant IFB (TIFB). Therefore, we present systematic analysis to illustrate the relevancy between satellite clocks and phase TIFB, and compare the handling strategies of the code and phase IFB in triple-frequency positioning. First, the un-differenced L1/L2 satellite clock corrections considering the hardware delays are derived. And IFB induced by the dual-frequency satellite clocks to triple-frequency PPP model is detailed. The analysis shows that estimated satellite clocks actually contain the time-variant phase hardware delays, which can be compensated in L1/L2 ionosphere-free combinations. However, the time-variant hardware delays will lead to TIFB if the third frequency is used. Then, the methods used to correct the code and phase IFB are discussed. Standard point positioning (SPP) and precise point positioning (PPP) using BDS observations are carried out to validate the improvement of different IFB correction strategies. Experiments show that code IFB derived from DCB or geometry-free and ionosphere-free combination show an agreement of 0.3 ns for all satellites. Positioning results and error distribution with two different code IFB correcting strategies achieve similar tendency, which shows their substitutability. The original and wavelet filtered phase TIFB long-term series show significant

The Plane-parallel Albedo Bias of Liquid Clouds from MODIS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cahalan, Robert F.; Platnick, Steven

2007-01-01

In our most advanced modeling tools for climate change prediction, namely General Circulation Models (GCMs), the schemes used to calculate the budget of solar and thermal radiation commonly assume that clouds are horizontally homogeneous at scales as large as a few hundred kilometers. However, this assumption, used for convenience, computational speed, and lack of knowledge on cloud small scale variability, leads to erroneous estimates of the radiation budget. This paper provides a global picture of the solar radiation errors at scales of approximately 100 km due to warm (liquid phase) clouds only. To achieve this, we use cloud retrievals from the instrument MODIS on the Terra and Aqua satellites, along with atmospheric and surface information, as input into a GCM-style radiative transfer algorithm. Since the MODIS product contains information on cloud variability below 100 km we can run the radiation algorithm both for the variable and the (assumed) homogeneous clouds. The difference between these calculations for reflected or transmitted solar radiation constitutes the bias that GCMs would commit if they were able to perfectly predict the properties of warm clouds, but then assumed they were homogeneous for radiation calculations. We find that the global average of this bias is approx.2-3 times larger in terms of energy than the additional amount of thermal energy that would be trapped if we were to double carbon dioxide from current concentrations. We should therefore make a greater effort to predict horizontal cloud variability in GCMs and account for its effects in radiation calculations.

Modification of turbulent particle transport and intermittency by biased rotation in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dove, J.; Carter, T. A.; Maggs, J. E.

2006-10-01

The edge plasma in LAPD is rotated through the application of a bias voltage between the plasma source cathode and the vacuum vessel wall. As the bias voltage is applied and increased past a threshold value, the measured density profile steepens dramatically (from Ln> 10 ρs to Ln˜2 ρs) at a radius near the peak of the flow shear. Turbulent transport flux measurements in this region show that the flux is reduced and then suppressed completely as the threshold is approached. The amplitude of the density and azimuthal electric field fluctuations is observed to decrease during biased rotation, the product of the amplitudes decreasing by a factor of 5. However the dominant change appears in the cross-phase, which is altered dramatically, leading to the observed suppression and reversal of the turbulent flux. Detailed two-dimensional turbulent correlation measurements have been performed. During biased rotation, a dramatic increase in the azimuthal correlation is observed, however there is little change in the radial correlation length. An investigation of the modification of intermittent (or ``blobby'') transport due to the shear flow is underway and initial results will be presented.

"In the Eye of the Beholder": Sex Bias in Observations and Ratings of Children's Aggression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pellegrini, Anthony D.

2011-01-01

The processes by which children are classified as aggressive have important educational and research implications. For example, aggression in childhood reliably predicts dropping out of school and incarceration. The author argues that the sex-role stereotypicality of aggression produces bias in both observers and raters of student behavior. The…

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

2012-11-01

This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human observers are biased in judging the angular approach of a projectile.

PubMed

Welchman, Andrew E; Tuck, Val L; Harris, Julie M

2004-01-01

How do we decide whether an object approaching us will hit us? The optic array provides information sufficient for us to determine the approaching trajectory of a projectile. However, when using binocular information, observers report that trajectories near the mid-sagittal plane are wider than they actually are. Here we extend this work to consider stimuli containing additional depth cues. We measure observers' estimates of trajectory direction first for computer rendered, stereoscopically presented, rich-cue objects, and then for real objects moving in the world. We find that, under both rich cue conditions and with real moving objects, observers show positive bias, overestimating the angle of approach when movement is near the mid-sagittal plane. The findings question whether the visual system, using both binocular and monocular cues to depth, can make explicit estimates of the 3-D location and movement of objects in depth.

The Politics of Affirmation Theory: When Group-Affirmation Leads to Greater Ingroup Bias.

PubMed

Ehrlich, Gaven A; Gramzow, Richard H

2015-08-01

It has been well established in the literature that affirming the individual self reduces the tendency to exhibit group-favoring biases. The limited research examining group-affirmation and bias, however, is inconclusive. We argue that group-affirmation can exacerbate group-serving biases in certain contexts, and in the current set of studies, we document this phenomenon directly. Unlike self-affirmation, group-affirmation led to greater ingroup-favoring evaluative judgments among political partisans (Experiment 1). This increase in evaluative bias following group-affirmation was moderated by political party identification and was not found among those who affirmed a non-political ingroup (Experiment 2). In addition, the mechanism underlying these findings is explored and interpreted within the theoretical frameworks of self-categorization theory and the multiple self-aspects model (Experiments 2 and 3). The broader implications of our findings for the understanding of social identity and affirmation theory are discussed. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, Steve

2012-01-01

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

The right side? Under time pressure, approach motivation leads to right-oriented bias.

PubMed

Roskes, Marieke; Sligte, Daniel; Shalvi, Shaul; De Dreu, Carsten K W

2011-11-01

Approach motivation, a focus on achieving positive outcomes, is related to relative left-hemispheric brain activation, which translates to a variety of right-oriented behavioral biases. In two studies, we found that approach-motivated individuals display a right-oriented bias, but only when they are forced to act quickly. In a task in which they had to divide lines into two equal parts, approach-motivated individuals bisected the line at a point farther to the right than avoidance-motivated individuals did, but only when they worked under high time pressure. In our analysis of all Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup penalty shoot-outs, we found that goalkeepers were two times more likely to dive to the right than to the left when their team was behind, a situation that we conjecture induces approach motivation. Because penalty takers shot toward the two sides of the goal equally often, the goalkeepers' right-oriented bias was dysfunctional, allowing more goals to be scored. Directional biases may facilitate group coordination but prove maladaptive in individual settings and interpersonal competition.

Eye Movements while Reading Biased Homographs: Effects of Prior Encounter and Biasing Context on Reducing the Subordinate Bias Effect

PubMed Central

Leinenger, Mallorie; Rayner, Keith

2013-01-01

Readers experience processing difficulties when reading biased homographs preceded by subordinate-biasing contexts. Attempts to overcome this processing deficit have often failed to reduce the subordinate bias effect (SBE). In the present studies, we examined the processing of biased homographs preceded by single-sentence, subordinate-biasing contexts, and varied whether this preceding context contained a prior instance of the homograph or a control word/phrase. Having previously encountered the homograph earlier in the sentence reduced the SBE for the subsequent encounter, while simply instantiating the subordinate meaning produced processing difficulty. We compared these reductions in reading times to differences in processing time between dominant-biased repeated and non-repeated conditions in order to verify that the reductions observed in the subordinate cases did not simply reflect a general repetition benefit. Our results indicate that a strong, subordinate-biasing context can interact during lexical access to overcome the activation from meaning frequency and reduce the SBE during reading. PMID:24073328

Cooling field and temperature dependent exchange bias in Gd substituted YFe0.5Cr0.5O3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Karan; Mukherjee, K.

2018-04-01

We report the results of our investigation of cooling field and temperature dependence of exchange bias on Gd substituted mixed metal oxide YFe0.5Cr0.5O3. A negative exchange bias is observed in the Gd-substituted compounds, in contrast to the positive exchange bias in parent compound, YFe0.5Cr0.5O3 [1]. With the increase in Gd concentration it is noted that the exchange bias decreases. It was noted that the paramagnetic contribution from Gd ions plays the leading role in comparison to the antiferromagnetic type correlations among spins as is observed for the parent compound. Due to magnetic rare earth ion, additional exchange interaction of the form Gd-O-Fe/Cr dominates the magnetic interaction arising due to the transition metal ions, resulting in the reduction in exchange bias value.

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons.

PubMed

Bonnell, Tyler R; Clarke, Parry M; Henzi, S Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-07-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects).

Individual-level movement bias leads to the formation of higher-order social structure in a mobile group of baboons

PubMed Central

Clarke, Parry M.; Henzi, S. Peter; Barrett, Louise

2017-01-01

In mobile social groups, influence patterns driving group movement can vary between democratic and despotic. The arrival at any single pattern of influence is thought to be underpinned by both environmental factors and group composition. To identify the specific patterns of influence driving travel decision-making in a chacma baboon troop, we used spatially explicit data to extract patterns of individual movement bias. We scaled these estimates of individual-level bias to the level of the group by constructing an influence network and assessing its emergent structural properties. Our results indicate that there is heterogeneity in movement bias: individual animals respond consistently to particular group members, and higher-ranking animals are more likely to influence the movement of others. This heterogeneity resulted in a group-level network structure that consisted of a single core and two outer shells. Here, the presence of a core suggests that a set of highly interdependent animals drove routine group movements. These results suggest that heterogeneity at the individual level can lead to group-level influence structures, and that movement patterns in mobile social groups can add to the exploration of both how these structures develop (i.e. mechanistic aspects) and what consequences they have for individual- and group-level outcomes (i.e. functional aspects). PMID:28791140

Correction of contaminated yaw rate signal and estimation of sensor bias for an electric vehicle under normal driving conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guoguang; Yu, Zitian; Wang, Junmin

2017-03-01

Yaw rate is a crucial signal for the motion control systems of ground vehicles. Yet it may be contaminated by sensor bias. In order to correct the contaminated yaw rate signal and estimate the sensor bias, a robust gain-scheduling observer is proposed in this paper. First of all, a two-degree-of-freedom (2DOF) vehicle lateral and yaw dynamic model is presented, and then a Luenberger-like observer is proposed. To make the observer more applicable to real vehicle driving operations, a 2DOF vehicle model with uncertainties on the coefficients of tire cornering stiffness is employed. Further, a gain-scheduling approach and a robustness enhancement are introduced, leading to a robust gain-scheduling observer. Sensor bias detection mechanism is also designed. Case studies are conducted using an electric ground vehicle to assess the performance of signal correction and sensor bias estimation under difference scenarios.

Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

2011-07-01

Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

An evaluation of bias in propensity score-adjusted non-linear regression models.

PubMed

Wan, Fei; Mitra, Nandita

2018-03-01

Propensity score methods are commonly used to adjust for observed confounding when estimating the conditional treatment effect in observational studies. One popular method, covariate adjustment of the propensity score in a regression model, has been empirically shown to be biased in non-linear models. However, no compelling underlying theoretical reason has been presented. We propose a new framework to investigate bias and consistency of propensity score-adjusted treatment effects in non-linear models that uses a simple geometric approach to forge a link between the consistency of the propensity score estimator and the collapsibility of non-linear models. Under this framework, we demonstrate that adjustment of the propensity score in an outcome model results in the decomposition of observed covariates into the propensity score and a remainder term. Omission of this remainder term from a non-collapsible regression model leads to biased estimates of the conditional odds ratio and conditional hazard ratio, but not for the conditional rate ratio. We further show, via simulation studies, that the bias in these propensity score-adjusted estimators increases with larger treatment effect size, larger covariate effects, and increasing dissimilarity between the coefficients of the covariates in the treatment model versus the outcome model.

Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

PubMed

Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

2017-09-01

A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event

Observer Bias: An Interaction of Temperament Traits with Biases in the Semantic Perception of Lexical Material

PubMed Central

Trofimova, Ira

2014-01-01

The lexical approach is a method in differential psychology that uses people's estimations of verbal descriptors of human behavior in order to derive the structure of human individuality. The validity of the assumptions of this method about the objectivity of people's estimations is rarely questioned. Meanwhile the social nature of language and the presence of emotionality biases in cognition are well-recognized in psychology. A question remains, however, as to whether such an emotionality-capacities bias is strong enough to affect semantic perception of verbal material. For the lexical approach to be valid as a method of scientific investigations, such biases should not exist in semantic perception of the verbal material that is used by this approach. This article reports on two studies investigating differences between groups contrasted by 12 temperament traits (i.e. by energetic and other capacities, as well as emotionality) in the semantic perception of very general verbal material. Both studies contrasted the groups by a variety of capacities: endurance, lability and emotionality separately in physical, social-verbal and mental aspects of activities. Hypotheses of “background emotionality” and a “projection through capacities” were supported. Non-evaluative criteria for categorization (related to complexity, organization, stability and probability of occurrence of objects) followed the polarity of evaluative criteria, and did not show independence from this polarity. Participants with stronger physical or social endurance gave significantly more positive ratings to a variety of concepts, and participants with faster physical tempo gave more positive ratings to timing-related concepts. The results suggest that people's estimations of lexical material related to human behavior have emotionality, language- and dynamical capacities-related biases and therefore are unreliable. This questions the validity of the lexical approach as a method for the objective

Low-bias flat band-stop filter based on velocity modulated gaussian graphene superlattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sattari-Esfahlan, S. M.; Shojaei, S.

2018-05-01

Transport properties of biased planar Gaussian graphene superlattice (PGGSL) with Fermi velocity barrier is investigated by transfer matrix method (TMM). It is observed that enlargement of bias voltage over miniband width breaks the miniband to WSLs leads to suppressing resonant tunneling. Transmission spectrum shows flat wide stop-band property controllable by external bias voltage with stop-band width of near 200 meV. The simulations demonstrate that strong velocity barriers prevent tunneling of Dirac electrons leading to controllable enhancement of stop-band width. By increasing ratio of Fermi velocity in barriers to wells υc stop-band width increase. As wide transmission stop-band width (BWT) of filter is tunable from 40 meV to 340 meV is obtained by enhancing ratio of υc from 0.2 to 1.5, respectively. Proposed structure suggests easy tunable wide band-stop electronic filter with a modulated flat stop-band characteristic by height of electrostatic barrier and structural parameters. Robust sensitivity of band width to velocity barrier intensity in certain bias voltages and flat band feature of proposed filter may be opens novel venue in GSL based flat band low noise filters and velocity modulation devices.

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

PubMed Central

Staiger, Douglas O; Sharp, Sandra M; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Bevan, Gwyn; McPherson, Klim; Welch, H Gilbert

2013-01-01

rates of visits by physicians introduce substantial bias when regional mortality and spending rates are adjusted for illness using comorbidity measures based on the observed number of diagnoses recorded in Medicare’s administrative database. Adjusting without correction for regional variation in visit rates tends to make regions with high rates of visits seem to have lower mortality and lower costs, and vice versa. Visit corrected comorbidity measures better explain variation in age, sex, and race mortality than observed measures, and reduce observational intensity bias. PMID:23430282

Study of the Dependence on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bandler, Simon

2011-01-01

At SRON we are studying the performance of a Goddard Space Flight Center single pixel TES microcalorimeter operated in the AC bias configuration. For x-ray photons at 6keV the AC biased pixel shows a best energy resolution of 3.7eV, which is about a factor of 2 worse than the energy resolution observed in identical DC-biased pixels. To better understand the reasons of this discrepancy, we investigated the detector performance as a function of temperature, bias working point and applied magnetic field. A strong periodic dependence of the detector noise on the TES AC bias voltage is measured. We discuss the results in the framework of the recent weak-link behaviour observed inTES microcalorimeters.

Can CFMIP2 models reproduce the leading modes of cloud vertical structure in the CALIPSO-GOCCP observations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fang; Yang, Song

2018-02-01

Using principal component (PC) analysis, three leading modes of cloud vertical structure (CVS) are revealed by the GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product (GOCCP), i.e. tropical high, subtropical anticyclonic and extratropical cyclonic cloud modes (THCM, SACM and ECCM, respectively). THCM mainly reflect the contrast between tropical high clouds and clouds in middle/high latitudes. SACM is closely associated with middle-high clouds in tropical convective cores, few-cloud regimes in subtropical anticyclonic clouds and stratocumulus over subtropical eastern oceans. ECCM mainly corresponds to clouds along extratropical cyclonic regions. Models of phase 2 of Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP2) well reproduce the THCM, but SACM and ECCM are generally poorly simulated compared to GOCCP. Standardized PCs corresponding to CVS modes are generally captured, whereas original PCs (OPCs) are consistently underestimated (overestimated) for THCM (SACM and ECCM) by CFMIP2 models. The effects of CVS modes on relative cloud radiative forcing (RSCRF/RLCRF) (RSCRF being calculated at the surface while RLCRF at the top of atmosphere) are studied in terms of principal component regression method. Results show that CFMIP2 models tend to overestimate (underestimated or simulate the opposite sign) RSCRF/RLCRF radiative effects (REs) of ECCM (THCM and SACM) in unit global mean OPC compared to observations. These RE biases may be attributed to two factors, one of which is underestimation (overestimation) of low/middle clouds (high clouds) (also known as stronger (weaker) REs in unit low/middle (high) clouds) in simulated global mean cloud profiles, the other is eigenvector biases in CVS modes (especially for SACM and ECCM). It is suggested that much more attention should be paid on improvement of CVS, especially cloud parameterization associated with particular physical processes (e.g. downwelling regimes with the Hadley circulation, extratropical storm tracks and others), which

Methodological approaches in analysing observational data: A practical example on how to address clustering and selection bias.

PubMed

Trutschel, Diana; Palm, Rebecca; Holle, Bernhard; Simon, Michael

2017-11-01

Because not every scientific question on effectiveness can be answered with randomised controlled trials, research methods that minimise bias in observational studies are required. Two major concerns influence the internal validity of effect estimates: selection bias and clustering. Hence, to reduce the bias of the effect estimates, more sophisticated statistical methods are needed. To introduce statistical approaches such as propensity score matching and mixed models into representative real-world analysis and to conduct the implementation in statistical software R to reproduce the results. Additionally, the implementation in R is presented to allow the results to be reproduced. We perform a two-level analytic strategy to address the problems of bias and clustering: (i) generalised models with different abilities to adjust for dependencies are used to analyse binary data and (ii) the genetic matching and covariate adjustment methods are used to adjust for selection bias. Hence, we analyse the data from two population samples, the sample produced by the matching method and the full sample. The different analysis methods in this article present different results but still point in the same direction. In our example, the estimate of the probability of receiving a case conference is higher in the treatment group than in the control group. Both strategies, genetic matching and covariate adjustment, have their limitations but complement each other to provide the whole picture. The statistical approaches were feasible for reducing bias but were nevertheless limited by the sample used. For each study and obtained sample, the pros and cons of the different methods have to be weighted. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research.

PubMed

Choi, Hyon K; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-07-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias--a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic--in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the 'risk factor paradox'--a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research.

Tropospheric GOM at the Pic du Midi Observatory-Correcting Bias in Denuder Based Observations.

PubMed

Marusczak, Nicolas; Sonke, Jeroen E; Fu, Xuewu; Jiskra, Martin

2017-01-17

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM, Hg) emissions are transformed to divalent reactive Hg (RM) forms throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. RM is often operationally quantified as the sum of particle bound Hg (PBM) and gaseous oxidized Hg (GOM). The measurement of GOM and PBM is challenging and under mounting criticism. Here we intercompare six months of automated GOM and PBM measurements using a Tekran (TK) KCl-coated denuder and quartz regenerable particulate filter method (GOM TK , PBM TK , and RM TK ) with RM CEM collected on cation exchange membranes (CEMs) at the high altitude Pic du Midi Observatory. We find that RM TK is systematically lower by a factor of 1.3 than RM CEM . We observe a significant relationship between GOM TK (but not PBM TK ) and Tekran flush TK blanks suggesting significant loss (36%) of labile GOM TK from the denuder or inlet. Adding the flush TK blank to RM TK results in good agreement with RM CEM (slope = 1.01, r 2 = 0.90) suggesting we can correct bias in RM TK and GOM TK . We provide a bias corrected (*) Pic du Midi data set for 2012-2014 that shows GOM* and RM* levels in dry free tropospheric air of 198 ± 57 and 229 ± 58 pg m -3 which agree well with in-flight observed RM and with model based GOM and RM estimates.

Shunt-Enhanced, Lead-Driven Bifurcation of Epilayer GaAs based EEC Sensor Responsivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solin, Stuart; Werner, Fletcher

2015-03-01

The results reported here explore the geometric optimization of room-temperature EEC sensor responsivity to applied bias by exploring contact geometry and location. The EEC sensor structure resembles that of a MESFET, but the measurement technique and operation distinguish the EEC sensor significantly; the EEC sensor employs a four-point resistance measurement as opposed to a two-point source-drain measurement and is operated under both forward and reverse bias. Under direct forward bias, the sensor distinguishes itself from a traditional FET by allowing current to be injected from the gate, referred to as a shunt, into the active layer. We show that the observed bifurcation in EEC sensor response to direct reverse bias depends critically on measurement lead location. A dramatic enhancement in responsivity is achieved via a modification of the shunt geometry. A maximum percent change of 130,856% of the four-point resistance was achieved under a direct reverse bias of -1V using an enhanced shunt design, a 325 fold increase over the conventional EEC square shunt design. This result was accompanied by an observed bifurcation in sensor response, driven by a rotation of the four-point measurement leads. S. A. S is a co-founder of and has a financial interest in PixelEXX, a start-up company whose mission is to market imaging arrays.

The Role of Response Bias in Perceptual Learning

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced making a basic auditory judgment (yes/no amplitude-modulation detection or forced-choice frequency/amplitude discrimination) over multiple days. With all tasks, bias was present initially, but decreased with practice. Notably, this was the case even on supposedly “bias-free,” 2-alternative forced-choice, tasks. In those tasks, observers did not favor the same response throughout (stationary bias), but did favor whichever response had been correct on previous trials (nonstationary bias). Means of correcting for bias are described. When applied, these showed that at least 13% of perceptual learning on a forced-choice task was due to reduction in bias. In other situations, changes in bias were shown to obscure the true extent of learning, with changes in estimated sensitivity increasing once bias was corrected for. The possible causes of bias and the implications for our understanding of perceptual learning are discussed. PMID:25867609

Hindsight bias and outcome bias in the social construction of medical negligence: a review.

PubMed

Hugh, Thomas B; Dekker, Sidney W A

2009-05-01

Medical negligence has been the subject of much public debate in recent decades. Although the steep increase in the frequency and size of claims against doctors at the end of the last century appears to have plateaued, in Australia at least, medical indemnity costs and consequences are still a matter of concern for doctors, medical defence organisations and governments in most developed countries. Imprecision in the legal definition of negligence opens the possibility that judgments of this issue at several levels may be subject to hindsight and outcome bias. Hindsight bias relates to the probability of an adverse event perceived by a retrospective observer ("I would have known it was going to happen"), while outcome bias is a largely subconscious cognitive distortion produced by the observer's knowledge of the adverse outcome. This review examines the relevant legal, medical, psychological and sociological literature on the operation of these pervasive and universal biases in the retrospective evaluation of adverse events. A finding of medical negligence is essentially an after-the-event social construction and is invariably affected by hindsight bias and knowledge of the adverse outcome. Such biases obviously pose a threat to the fairness of judgments. A number of debiasing strategies have been suggested but are relatively ineffective because of the universality and strength of these biases and the inherent difficulty of concealing from expert witnesses knowledge of the outcome. Education about the effect of the biases is therefore important for lawyers, medical expert witnesses and the judiciary.

Dissociation between active and observational learning from positive and negative feedback in Parkinsonism.

PubMed

Kobza, Stefan; Ferrea, Stefano; Schnitzler, Alfons; Pollok, Bettina; Südmeyer, Martin; Bellebaum, Christian

2012-01-01

Feedback to both actively performed and observed behaviour allows adaptation of future actions. Positive feedback leads to increased activity of dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra, whereas dopamine neuron activity is decreased following negative feedback. Dopamine level reduction in unmedicated Parkinson's Disease patients has been shown to lead to a negative learning bias, i.e. enhanced learning from negative feedback. Recent findings suggest that the neural mechanisms of active and observational learning from feedback might differ, with the striatum playing a less prominent role in observational learning. Therefore, it was hypothesized that unmedicated Parkinson's Disease patients would show a negative learning bias only in active but not in observational learning. In a between-group design, 19 Parkinson's Disease patients and 40 healthy controls engaged in either an active or an observational probabilistic feedback-learning task. For both tasks, transfer phases aimed to assess the bias to learn better from positive or negative feedback. As expected, actively learning patients showed a negative learning bias, whereas controls learned better from positive feedback. In contrast, no difference between patients and controls emerged for observational learning, with both groups showing better learning from positive feedback. These findings add to neural models of reinforcement-learning by suggesting that dopamine-modulated input to the striatum plays a minor role in observational learning from feedback. Future research will have to elucidate the specific neural underpinnings of observational learning.

Quality of Reporting Randomized Controlled Trials in Five Leading Neurology Journals in 2008 and 2013 Using the Modified "Risk of Bias" Tool.

PubMed

Zhai, Xiao; Cui, Jin; Wang, Yiran; Qu, Zhiquan; Mu, Qingchun; Li, Peiwen; Zhang, Chaochao; Yang, Mingyuan; Chen, Xiao; Chen, Ziqiang; Li, Ming

2017-03-01

To examine the risk of bias of methodological quality of reporting randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in major neurology journals before and after the update (2011) of Cochrane risk of bias tool. RCTs in 5 leading neurology journals in 2008 and 2013 were searched systematically. Characteristics were extracted based on the list of the modified Cochrane Collaboration's tool. Country, number of patients, type of intervention, and funding source also were examined for further analysis. A total of 138 RCTs were enrolled in this study. The rates of following a trial plan were 61.6% for the allocation generation, 52.9% for the allocation concealment, 84.8% for the blinding of the participants or the personnel, 34.8% for the blinding of outcome assessment, 78.3% for the incomplete outcome data, and 67.4% for the selective reporting. A significant setback was found in "the selective reporting" in 2013 than that in 2008. Trials performed by multi-centers and on a large scale had significantly more "low risk of bias" trials. Not only the number of surgical trials (5.8%) was much less than that of trials using drugs (73.9%), but also the reporting quality of surgical trials were worse (P = 0.008). Finally, only 17.4% trials met the criterion of "low risk of bias." The modified "risk of bias" tool is an improved version for assessment. Methodological quality of reporting RCTs in the 5neurology journals is unsatisfactory, especially that for surgical RCTs, and it could be further improved. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observational Evidence for the Effect of Amplification Bias in Gravitational Microlensing Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Cheongho; Jeong, Youngjin; Kim, Ho-Il

1998-11-01

Recently Alard, Mao, & Guibert and Alard proposed to detect the shift of a star's image centroid, δx, as a method to identify the lensed source among blended stars. Goldberg & Woźniak actually applied this method to the OGLE-1 database and found that seven of 15 events showed significant centroid shifts of δx >~ 0.2". The amount of centroid shift has been estimated theoretically by Goldberg; however, he treated the problem in general and did not apply it to a particular survey or field and therefore based his estimate on simple toy model luminosity functions (i.e., power laws). In this paper, we construct the expected distribution of δx for Galactic bulge events based on the precise stellar luminosity function observed by Holtzman et al. using the Hubble Space Telescope. Their luminosity function is complete up to MI ~ 9.0 (MV ~ 12), which corresponds to faint M-type stars. In our analysis we find that regular blending cannot produce a large fraction of events with measurable centroid shifts. By contrast, a significant fraction of events would have measurable centroid shifts if they are affected by amplification-bias blending. Therefore, the measurements of large centroid shifts for an important fraction of microlensing events of Goldberg & Woźniak confirm the prediction of Han & Alard that a large fraction of Galactic bulge events are affected by amplification-bias blending.

Direct estimation and correction of bias from temporally variable non-stationary noise in a channelized Hotelling model observer.

PubMed

Fetterly, Kenneth A; Favazza, Christopher P

2016-08-07

Channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) methods were developed to assess performance of an x-ray angiography system. The analytical methods included correction for known bias error due to finite sampling. Detectability indices ([Formula: see text]) corresponding to disk-shaped objects with diameters in the range 0.5-4 mm were calculated. Application of the CHO for variable detector target dose (DTD) in the range 6-240 nGy frame(-1) resulted in [Formula: see text] estimates which were as much as 2.9×  greater than expected of a quantum limited system. Over-estimation of [Formula: see text] was presumed to be a result of bias error due to temporally variable non-stationary noise. Statistical theory which allows for independent contributions of 'signal' from a test object (o) and temporally variable non-stationary noise (ns) was developed. The theory demonstrates that the biased [Formula: see text] is the sum of the detectability indices associated with the test object [Formula: see text] and non-stationary noise ([Formula: see text]). Given the nature of the imaging system and the experimental methods, [Formula: see text] cannot be directly determined independent of [Formula: see text]. However, methods to estimate [Formula: see text] independent of [Formula: see text] were developed. In accordance with the theory, [Formula: see text] was subtracted from experimental estimates of [Formula: see text], providing an unbiased estimate of [Formula: see text]. Estimates of [Formula: see text] exhibited trends consistent with expectations of an angiography system that is quantum limited for high DTD and compromised by detector electronic readout noise for low DTD conditions. Results suggest that these methods provide [Formula: see text] estimates which are accurate and precise for [Formula: see text]. Further, results demonstrated that the source of bias was detector electronic readout noise. In summary, this work presents theory and methods to test for the

Selection bias in rheumatic disease research

PubMed Central

Choi, Hyon K.; Nguyen, Uyen-Sa; Niu, Jingbo; Danaei, Goodarz; Zhang, Yuqing

2014-01-01

The identification of modifiable risk factors for the development of rheumatic conditions and their sequelae is crucial for reducing the substantial worldwide burden of these diseases. However, the validity of such research can be threatened by sources of bias, including confounding, measurement and selection biases. In this Review, we discuss potentially major issues of selection bias—a type of bias frequently overshadowed by other bias and feasibility issues, despite being equally or more problematic—in key areas of rheumatic disease research. We present index event bias (a type of selection bias) as one of the potentially unifying reasons behind some unexpected findings, such as the ‘risk factor paradox’—a phenomenon exemplified by the discrepant effects of certain risk factors on the development versus the progression of osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We also discuss potential selection biases owing to differential loss to follow-up in RA and OA research, as well as those due to the depletion of susceptibles (prevalent user bias) and immortal time bias. The lesson remains that selection bias can be ubiquitous and, therefore, has the potential to lead the field astray. Thus, we conclude with suggestions to help investigators avoid such issues and limit the impact on future rheumatology research. PMID:24686510

On the Limitations of Variational Bias Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moradi, Isaac; Mccarty, Will; Gelaro, Ronald

2018-01-01

Satellite radiances are the largest dataset assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, however the data are subject to errors and uncertainties that need to be accounted for before assimilating into the NWP models. Variational bias correction uses the time series of observation minus background to estimate the observations bias. This technique does not distinguish between the background error, forward operator error, and observations error so that all these errors are summed up together and counted as observation error. We identify some sources of observations errors (e.g., antenna emissivity, non-linearity in the calibration, and antenna pattern) and show the limitations of variational bias corrections on estimating these errors.

A forecasting method to reduce estimation bias in self-reported cell phone data.

PubMed

Redmayne, Mary; Smith, Euan; Abramson, Michael J

2013-01-01

There is ongoing concern that extended exposure to cell phone electromagnetic radiation could be related to an increased risk of negative health effects. Epidemiological studies seek to assess this risk, usually relying on participants' recalled use, but recall is notoriously poor. Our objectives were primarily to produce a forecast method, for use by such studies, to reduce estimation bias in the recalled extent of cell phone use. The method we developed, using Bayes' rule, is modelled with data we collected in a cross-sectional cluster survey exploring cell phone user-habits among New Zealand adolescents. Participants recalled their recent extent of SMS-texting and retrieved from their provider the current month's actual use-to-date. Actual use was taken as the gold standard in the analyses. Estimation bias arose from a large random error, as observed in all cell phone validation studies. We demonstrate that this seriously exaggerates upper-end forecasts of use when used in regression models. This means that calculations using a regression model will lead to underestimation of heavy-users' relative risk. Our Bayesian method substantially reduces estimation bias. In cases where other studies' data conforms to our method's requirements, application should reduce estimation bias, leading to a more accurate relative risk calculation for mid-to-heavy users.

Estimating interevent time distributions from finite observation periods in communication networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kivelä, Mikko; Porter, Mason A.

2015-11-01

A diverse variety of processes—including recurrent disease episodes, neuron firing, and communication patterns among humans—can be described using interevent time (IET) distributions. Many such processes are ongoing, although event sequences are only available during a finite observation window. Because the observation time window is more likely to begin or end during long IETs than during short ones, the analysis of such data is susceptible to a bias induced by the finite observation period. In this paper, we illustrate how this length bias is born and how it can be corrected without assuming any particular shape for the IET distribution. To do this, we model event sequences using stationary renewal processes, and we formulate simple heuristics for determining the severity of the bias. To illustrate our results, we focus on the example of empirical communication networks, which are temporal networks that are constructed from communication events. The IET distributions of such systems guide efforts to build models of human behavior, and the variance of IETs is very important for estimating the spreading rate of information in networks of temporal interactions. We analyze several well-known data sets from the literature, and we find that the resulting bias can lead to systematic underestimates of the variance in the IET distributions and that correcting for the bias can lead to qualitatively different results for the tails of the IET distributions.

Conditioned social dominance threat: observation of others’ social dominance biases threat learning

PubMed Central

Molapour, Tanaz; Olsson, Andreas

2016-01-01

Social groups are organized along dominance hierarchies, which determine how we respond to threats posed by dominant and subordinate others. The persuasive impact of these dominance threats on mental and physical well-being has been well described but it is unknown how dominance rank of others bias our experience and learning in the first place. We introduce a model of conditioned social dominance threat in humans, where the presence of a dominant other is paired with an aversive event. Participants first learned about the dominance rank of others by observing their dyadic confrontations. During subsequent fear learning, the dominant and subordinate others were equally predictive of an aversive consequence (mild electric shock) to the participant. In three separate experiments, we show that participants’ eye-blink startle responses and amygdala reactivity adaptively tracked dominance of others during observation of confrontation. Importantly, during fear learning dominant vs subordinate others elicited stronger and more persistent learned threat responses as measured by physiological arousal and amygdala activity. Our results characterize the neural basis of learning through observing conflicts between others, and how this affects subsequent learning through direct, personal experiences. PMID:27217107

Study of the Dependency on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gottardi, L.; Bruijn, M.; denHartog, R.; Hoevers, H.; deKorte, P.; vanderKuur, J.; Linderman, M.; Adams, J.; Bailey, C.; Bandler, S.;

Sequential biases in accumulating evidence

PubMed Central

Huggins, Richard; Dogo, Samson Henry

2015-01-01

Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed ‘sequential decision bias’ and ‘sequential design bias’, are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the previous studies. Sequential decision bias is determined by the correlation between the value of the current estimated effect and the probability of conducting an additional study. Sequential design bias arises from using the estimated value instead of the clinically relevant value of an effect in sample size calculations. We considered both the fixed‐effect and the random‐effects models of meta‐analysis and demonstrated analytically and by simulations that in both settings the problems due to sequential biases are apparent. According to our simulations, the sequential biases increase with increased heterogeneity. Minimisation of sequential biases arises as a new and important research area necessary for successful evidence‐based approaches to the development of science. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26626562

Significant reduction in arc frequency biased solar cells: Observations, diagnostics, and mitigation technique(s)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Upschulte, B. L.; Weyl, G. M.; Marinelli, W. J.; Aifer, E.; Hastings, D.; Snyder, D.

1991-01-01

A variety of experiments were performed which identify key factors contributing to the arcing of negatively biased high voltage solar cells. These efforts have led to reduction of greater than a factor of 100 in the arc frequency of a single cell following proper remediation procedures. Experiments naturally lead to and focussed on the adhesive/encapsulant that is used to bond the protective cover slip to the solar cell. An image-intensified charge coupled device (CCD) camera system recorded UV emission from arc events which occurred exclusively along the interfacial edge between the cover slip and the solar cell. Microscopic inspection of this interfacial region showed a bead of encapsulant along this entire edge. Elimination of this encapsulant bead reduced the arc frequency by two orders of magnitude. Water contamination was also identified as a key contributor which enhances arcing of the encapsulant bead along the solar cell edge. Spectrally resolved measurements of the observable UV light shows a feature assignable to OH(A-X) electronic emission, which is common for water contaminated discharges. Experiments in which the solar cell temperature was raised to 85 C showed a reduced arcing frequency, suggesting desorption of H2O. Exposing the solar cell to water vapor was shown to increase the arcing frequency. Clean dry gases such as O2, N2, and Ar show no enhancement of the arcing rate. Elimination of the exposed encapsulant eliminates any measurable sensitivity to H2O vapor.

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2008-01-01

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

Expectancy biases in fear and anxiety and their link to biases in attention.

PubMed

Aue, Tatjana; Okon-Singer, Hadas

2015-12-01

Healthy individuals often exhibit prioritized processing of aversive information, as manifested in enhanced orientation of attention to threatening stimuli compared with neutral items. In contrast to this adaptive behavior, anxious, fearful, and phobic individuals show exaggerated attention biases to threat. In addition, they overestimate the likelihood of encountering their feared stimulus and the severity of the consequences; both are examples of expectancy biases. The co-occurrence of attention and expectancy biases in fear and anxiety raises the question about causal influences. Herein, we summarize findings related to expectancy biases in fear and anxiety, and their association with attention biases. We suggest that evidence calls for more comprehensive research strategies in the investigation of mutual influences between expectancy and attention biases, as well as their combined effects on fear and anxiety. Moreover, both types of bias need to be related to other types of distorted information processing commonly observed in fear and anxiety (e.g., memory and interpretation biases). Finally, we propose new research directions that may be worth considering in developing more effective treatments for anxiety disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Addressing Spatial Dependence Bias in Climate Model Simulations—An Independent Component Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2018-02-01

Conventional bias correction is usually applied on a grid-by-grid basis, meaning that the resulting corrections cannot address biases in the spatial distribution of climate variables. To solve this problem, a two-step bias correction method is proposed here to correct time series at multiple locations conjointly. The first step transforms the data to a set of statistically independent univariate time series, using a technique known as independent component analysis (ICA). The mutually independent signals can then be bias corrected as univariate time series and back-transformed to improve the representation of spatial dependence in the data. The spatially corrected data are then bias corrected at the grid scale in the second step. The method has been applied to two CMIP5 General Circulation Model simulations for six different climate regions of Australia for two climate variables—temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that the ICA-based technique leads to considerable improvements in temperature simulations with more modest improvements in precipitation. Overall, the method results in current climate simulations that have greater equivalency in space and time with observational data.

Detecting Gender Bias Through Test Item Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Espada, Wilson J.

2009-03-01

Many physical science and physics instructors might not be trained in pedagogically appropriate test construction methods. This could lead to test items that do not measure what they are intended to measure. A subgroup of these items might show bias against some groups of students. This paper describes how the author became aware of potentially biased items against females in his examinations, which led to the exploration of fundamental issues related to item validity, gender bias, and differential item functioning, or DIF. A brief discussion of DIF in the context of university courses, as well as practical suggestions to detect possible gender-biased items, follows.

Evolution of Indian land surface biases in the seasonal hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, Amulya; Turner, Andrew G.; Woolnoug, Steve J.; Martin, Gill

2017-04-01

In this study we investigate the development of biases over the Indian region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. These mean state biases lead to strong precipitation errors during the monsoon over the subcontinent. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with variety of observations to assess the evolution of the mean state biases over the Indian land surface. All biases within the model develop rapidly, particularly surface heat and radiation flux biases. Strong biases are present within the model climatology from pre-monsoon (May) in the surface heat fluxes over India (higher sensible / lower latent heat fluxes) when compared to observed estimates. The early evolution of such biases prior to onset rains suggests possible problems with the land surface scheme or soil moisture errors. Further analysis of soil moisture over the Indian land surface shows a dry bias present from the beginning of the hindcasts during the pre-monsoon. This lasts until the after the monsoon develops (July) after which there is a wet bias over the region. Soil moisture used for initialization of the model also shows a dry bias when compared against the observed estimates, which may lead to the same in the model. The early dry bias in the model may reduce local moisture availability through surface evaporation and thus may possibly limit precipitation recycling. On this premise, we identify and test the sensitivity of the monsoon in the model against higher soil moisture forcing. We run sensitivity experiments initiated using gridpoint-wise annual soil moisture maxima over the Indian

Observation of electric potential in organic thin-film transistor by bias-applied hard X-ray photoemission spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, Takeshi; Tada, Keisuke; Yasuno, Satoshi; Oji, Hiroshi; Yoshimoto, Noriyuki; Hirosawa, Ichiro

2016-03-01

The effect of gate voltage on electric potential in a pentacene (PEN) layer was studied by hard X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy under a bias voltage. It was observed that applying a negative gate voltage substantially increases the width of a C 1s peak. This suggested that injected and accumulated carriers in an organic thin film transistor channel modified the potential depth profile in PEN. It was also observed that the C 1s kinetic energy tends to increase monotonically with threshold voltage.

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiangwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Kumar, Arun; Weaver, Scott; Liu, Shi

2014-03-01

Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the

Study of the Dependency on Magnetic Field and Bias Voltage of an AC-Biased TES Microcalorimeter.

PubMed

Gottardi, L; Adams, J; Bailey, C; Bandler, S; Bruijn, M; Chervenak, J; Eckart, M; Finkbeiner, F; den Hartog, R; Hoevers, H; Kelley, R; Kilbourne, C; de Korte, P; van der Kuur, J; Lindeman, M; Porter, F; Sadlier, J; Smith, S

At SRON we are studying the performance of a Goddard Space Flight Center single pixel TES microcalorimeter operated in an AC bias configuration. For x-ray photons at 6 keV the pixel shows an x-ray energy resolution Δ E FWHM =3.7 eV, which is about a factor 2 worse than the energy resolution observed in an identical DC-biased pixel. In order to better understand the reasons for this discrepancy we characterised the detector as a function of temperature, bias working point and applied perpendicular magnetic field. A strong periodic dependency of the detector noise on the TES AC bias voltage is measured. We discuss the results in the framework of the recently observed weak-link behaviour of a TES microcalorimeter.

Does observer bias contribute to variations in the rate of retinopathy of prematurity between centres?

PubMed

Darlow, Brian A; Elder, Mark J; Horwood, L John; Donoghue, Deborah A; Henderson-Smart, David J

2008-01-01

We aimed to indirectly assess the contribution from observer bias to between centre variability in the incidence of acute retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). The Australian and New Zealand Neonatal Network (ANZNN) collected data on the highest stage of acute ROP in either eye in 2286 infants born at less than 29 weeks in 1998-1999 and cared for in one of 25 neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Chi-squared analysis was used to detect differences in the proportion of stages of ROP for each neonatal intensive care unit. These proportions were compared with those reported in two large studies of treatment for ROP. The incidence of acute ROP in the ANZNN cohort was 42% and the ratio of stage 1:2:3 ROP was 1.5:1.9:1. There was considerable variation in both the incidence of acute ROP and the proportions with stage 1:2:3 ROP between centres. A chi-squared test determined that the assignment of stages 1, 2 and 3/4 ROP was not independent of centre (chi(2)(48) = 165.2; P < 0.0001). Treatment of stage 3 ROP varied between 15% and 120%, indicating some eyes were treated at less than stage 3. The data are highly suggestive of observer bias contributing to the observed between centre variation in the incidence of acute ROP. In neonatal intervention studies where acute ROP is an outcome it would seem important to have an accreditation process for examining ophthalmologists, and there are similar arguments for neonatal networks which collect these data.

Dissociation between Active and Observational Learning from Positive and Negative Feedback in Parkinsonism

PubMed Central

Kobza, Stefan; Ferrea, Stefano; Schnitzler, Alfons; Pollok, Bettina

2012-01-01

Feedback to both actively performed and observed behaviour allows adaptation of future actions. Positive feedback leads to increased activity of dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra, whereas dopamine neuron activity is decreased following negative feedback. Dopamine level reduction in unmedicated Parkinson’s Disease patients has been shown to lead to a negative learning bias, i.e. enhanced learning from negative feedback. Recent findings suggest that the neural mechanisms of active and observational learning from feedback might differ, with the striatum playing a less prominent role in observational learning. Therefore, it was hypothesized that unmedicated Parkinson’s Disease patients would show a negative learning bias only in active but not in observational learning. In a between-group design, 19 Parkinson’s Disease patients and 40 healthy controls engaged in either an active or an observational probabilistic feedback-learning task. For both tasks, transfer phases aimed to assess the bias to learn better from positive or negative feedback. As expected, actively learning patients showed a negative learning bias, whereas controls learned better from positive feedback. In contrast, no difference between patients and controls emerged for observational learning, with both groups showing better learning from positive feedback. These findings add to neural models of reinforcement-learning by suggesting that dopamine-modulated input to the striatum plays a minor role in observational learning from feedback. Future research will have to elucidate the specific neural underpinnings of observational learning. PMID:23185586

Opportunistic biases: Their origins, effects, and an integrated solution.

PubMed

DeCoster, Jamie; Sparks, Erin A; Sparks, Jordan C; Sparks, Glenn G; Sparks, Cheri W

2015-09-01

Researchers commonly explore their data in multiple ways before deciding which analyses they will include in the final versions of their papers. While this improves the chances of researchers finding publishable results, it introduces an "opportunistic bias," such that the reported relations are stronger or otherwise more supportive of the researcher's theories than they would be without the exploratory process. The magnitudes of opportunistic biases can often be stronger than those of the effects being investigated, leading to invalid conclusions and a lack of clarity in research results. Authors typically do not report their exploratory procedures, so opportunistic biases are very difficult to detect just by reading the final version of a research report. In this article, we explain how a number of accepted research practices can lead to opportunistic biases, discuss the prevalence of these practices in psychology, consider the different effects that opportunistic biases have on psychological science, evaluate the strategies that methodologists have proposed to prevent or correct for the effects of these biases, and introduce an integrated solution to reduce the prevalence and influence of opportunistic biases. The recent prominence of articles discussing questionable research practices both in scientific journals and in the public media underscores the importance of understanding how opportunistic biases are created and how we might undo their effects. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Bias against research on gender bias.

PubMed

Cislak, Aleksandra; Formanowicz, Magdalena; Saguy, Tamar

2018-01-01

The bias against women in academia is a documented phenomenon that has had detrimental consequences, not only for women, but also for the quality of science. First, gender bias in academia affects female scientists, resulting in their underrepresentation in academic institutions, particularly in higher ranks. The second type of gender bias in science relates to some findings applying only to male participants, which produces biased knowledge. Here, we identify a third potentially powerful source of gender bias in academia: the bias against research on gender bias. In a bibliometric investigation covering a broad range of social sciences, we analyzed published articles on gender bias and race bias and established that articles on gender bias are funded less often and published in journals with a lower Impact Factor than articles on comparable instances of social discrimination. This result suggests the possibility of an underappreciation of the phenomenon of gender bias and related research within the academic community. Addressing this meta-bias is crucial for the further examination of gender inequality, which severely affects many women across the world.

The Heart Trumps the Head: Desirability Bias in Political Belief Revision

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding how individuals revise their political beliefs has important implications for society. In a preregistered study (N = 900), we experimentally separated the predictions of 2 leading theories of human belief revision—desirability bias and confirmation bias—in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Participants indicated who they desired to win, and who they believed would win, the election. Following confrontation with evidence that was either consistent or inconsistent with their desires or beliefs, they again indicated who they believed would win. We observed a robust desirability bias—individuals updated their beliefs more if the evidence was consistent (vs. inconsistent) with their desired outcome. This bias was independent of whether the evidence was consistent or inconsistent with their prior beliefs. In contrast, we found limited evidence of an independent confirmation bias in belief updating. These results have implications for the relevant psychological theories and for political belief revision in practice. PMID:28557511

Conditioned social dominance threat: observation of others' social dominance biases threat learning.

PubMed

Haaker, Jan; Molapour, Tanaz; Olsson, Andreas

2016-10-01

Social groups are organized along dominance hierarchies, which determine how we respond to threats posed by dominant and subordinate others. The persuasive impact of these dominance threats on mental and physical well-being has been well described but it is unknown how dominance rank of others bias our experience and learning in the first place. We introduce a model of conditioned social dominance threat in humans, where the presence of a dominant other is paired with an aversive event. Participants first learned about the dominance rank of others by observing their dyadic confrontations. During subsequent fear learning, the dominant and subordinate others were equally predictive of an aversive consequence (mild electric shock) to the participant. In three separate experiments, we show that participants' eye-blink startle responses and amygdala reactivity adaptively tracked dominance of others during observation of confrontation. Importantly, during fear learning dominant vs subordinate others elicited stronger and more persistent learned threat responses as measured by physiological arousal and amygdala activity. Our results characterize the neural basis of learning through observing conflicts between others, and how this affects subsequent learning through direct, personal experiences. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in ADC measurements

PubMed Central

Malyarenko, Dariya I.; Ross, Brian D.; Chenevert, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Purpose Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially-dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10–20%) in ADC measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. Methods All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Results Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75–95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3–0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. Conclusions The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. PMID:23794533

A Dynamic Bayesian Observer Model Reveals Origins of Bias in Visual Path Integration.

PubMed

Lakshminarasimhan, Kaushik J; Petsalis, Marina; Park, Hyeshin; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Pitkow, Xaq; Angelaki, Dora E

2018-06-20

Path integration is a strategy by which animals track their position by integrating their self-motion velocity. To identify the computational origins of bias in visual path integration, we asked human subjects to navigate in a virtual environment using optic flow and found that they generally traveled beyond the goal location. Such a behavior could stem from leaky integration of unbiased self-motion velocity estimates or from a prior expectation favoring slower speeds that causes velocity underestimation. Testing both alternatives using a probabilistic framework that maximizes expected reward, we found that subjects' biases were better explained by a slow-speed prior than imperfect integration. When subjects integrate paths over long periods, this framework intriguingly predicts a distance-dependent bias reversal due to buildup of uncertainty, which we also confirmed experimentally. These results suggest that visual path integration in noisy environments is limited largely by biases in processing optic flow rather than by leaky integration. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate of the fraction of drug absorbed.

PubMed

Wang, Yibin; Nedelman, Jerry

2002-04-01

To examine and quantify bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate of the fraction of drug absorbed resulting from the estimation error of the elimination rate constant (k), measurement error of the drug concentration, and the truncation error in the area under the curve. Bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate was derived as a function of post-dosing time (t), k, ratio of absorption rate constant to k (r), and the coefficient of variation for estimates of k (CVk), or CV% for the observed concentration, by assuming a one-compartment model and using an independent estimate of k. The derived functions were used for evaluating the bias with r = 0.5, 3, or 6; k = 0.1 or 0.2; CV, = 0.2 or 0.4; and CV, =0.2 or 0.4; for t = 0 to 30 or 60. Estimation error of k resulted in an upward bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate that could lead to the estimate of the fraction absorbed being greater than unity. The bias resulting from the estimation error of k inflates the fraction of absorption vs. time profiles mainly in the early post-dosing period. The magnitude of the bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate resulting from estimation error of k was mainly determined by CV,. The bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate resulting from to estimation error in k can be dramatically reduced by use of the mean of several independent estimates of k, as in studies for development of an in vivo-in vitro correlation. The truncation error in the area under the curve can introduce a negative bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate. This can partially offset the bias resulting from estimation error of k in the early post-dosing period. Measurement error of concentration does not introduce bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate. Estimation error of k results in an upward bias in the Wagner-Nelson estimate, mainly in the early drug absorption phase. The truncation error in AUC can result in a downward bias, which may partially offset the upward bias due to estimation error of k in the early absorption phase. Measurement error of

Thinking in Black and White: Conscious thought increases racially biased judgments through biased face memory.

PubMed

Strick, Madelijn; Stoeckart, Peter F; Dijksterhuis, Ap

2015-11-01

It is a common research finding that conscious thought helps people to avoid racial discrimination. These three experiments, however, illustrate that conscious thought may increase biased face memory, which leads to increased judgment bias (i.e., preferring White to Black individuals). In Experiments 1 and 2, university students formed impressions of Black and White housemate candidates. They judged the candidates either immediately (immediate decision condition), thought about their judgments for a few minutes (conscious thought condition), or performed an unrelated task for a few minutes (unconscious thought condition). Conscious thinkers and immediate decision-makers showed a stronger face memory bias than unconscious thinkers, and this mediated increased judgment bias, although not all results were significant. Experiment 3 used a new, different paradigm and showed that a Black male was remembered as darker after a period of conscious thought than after a period of unconscious thought. Implications for racial prejudice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modifying Threat-Related Interpretive Bias in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salemink, Elske; Wiers, Reinout W.

2011-01-01

Socially anxious feelings sharply increase during adolescence and such feelings have been associated with interpretive biases. Studies in adults have shown that interpretive biases can be modified using Cognitive Bias Modification procedures (CBM-I) and subsequent effects on anxiety have been observed. The current study was designed to examine…

Self-face Captures, Holds, and Biases Attention.

PubMed

Wójcik, Michał J; Nowicka, Maria M; Kotlewska, Ilona; Nowicka, Anna

2017-01-01

The implicit self-recognition process may take place already in the pre-attentive stages of perception. After a silent stimulus has captured attention, it is passed on to the attentive stage where it can affect decision making and responding. Numerous studies show that the presence of self-referential information affects almost every cognitive level. These effects may share a common and fundamental basis in an attentional mechanism, conceptualized as attentional bias: the exaggerated deployment of attentional resources to a salient stimulus. A gold standard in attentional bias research is the dot-probe paradigm. In this task, a prominent stimulus (cue) and a neutral stimulus are presented in different spatial locations, followed by the presentation of a target. In the current study we aimed at investigating whether the self-face captures, holds and biases attention when presented as a task-irrelevant stimulus. In two dot-probe experiments coupled with the event-related potential (ERP) technique we analyzed the following relevant ERPs components: N2pc and SPCN which reflect attentional shifts and the maintenance of attention, respectively. An inter-stimulus interval separating face-cues and probes (800 ms) was introduced only in the first experiment. In line with our predictions, in Experiment 1 the self-face elicited the N2pc and the SPCN component. In Experiment 2 in addition to N2pc, an attentional bias was observed. Our results indicate that unintentional self-face processing disables the top-down control setting to filter out distractors, thus leading to the engagement of attentional resources and visual short-term memory.

Network Structure and Biased Variance Estimation in Respondent Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

Verdery, Ashton M.; Mouw, Ted; Bauldry, Shawn; Mucha, Peter J.

2015-01-01

This paper explores bias in the estimation of sampling variance in Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Prior methodological work on RDS has focused on its problematic assumptions and the biases and inefficiencies of its estimators of the population mean. Nonetheless, researchers have given only slight attention to the topic of estimating sampling variance in RDS, despite the importance of variance estimation for the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. In this paper, we show that the estimators of RDS sampling variance rely on a critical assumption that the network is First Order Markov (FOM) with respect to the dependent variable of interest. We demonstrate, through intuitive examples, mathematical generalizations, and computational experiments that current RDS variance estimators will always underestimate the population sampling variance of RDS in empirical networks that do not conform to the FOM assumption. Analysis of 215 observed university and school networks from Facebook and Add Health indicates that the FOM assumption is violated in every empirical network we analyze, and that these violations lead to substantially biased RDS estimators of sampling variance. We propose and test two alternative variance estimators that show some promise for reducing biases, but which also illustrate the limits of estimating sampling variance with only partial information on the underlying population social network. PMID:26679927

Visual detail about the body modulates tactile localisation biases.

PubMed

Margolis, Aaron N; Longo, Matthew R

2015-02-01

The localisation of tactile stimuli requires the integration of visual and somatosensory inputs within an internal representation of the body surface and is prone to consistent bias. Joints may play a role in segmenting such internal body representations, and may therefore influence tactile localisation biases, although the nature of this influence remains unclear. Here, we investigate the relationship between conceptual knowledge of joint locations and tactile localisation biases on the hand. In one task, participants localised tactile stimuli applied to the dorsum of their hand. A distal localisation bias was observed in all participants, consistent with previous results. We also manipulated the availability of visual information during this task, to determine whether the absence of this information could account for the distal bias observed here and by Mancini et al. (Neuropsychologia 49:1194-1201, 2011). The observed distal bias increased in magnitude when visual information was restricted, without a corresponding decrease in precision. In a separate task, the same participants indicated, from memory, knuckle locations on a silhouette image of their hand. Analogous distal biases were also seen in the knuckle localisation task. The accuracy of conceptual joint knowledge was not correlated with tactile localisation bias magnitude, although a similarity in observed bias direction suggests that both tasks may rely on a common, higher-order body representation. These results also suggest that distortions of conceptual body representation may be more common in healthy individuals than previously thought.

Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

1988-01-01

The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

Efficient bias correction for magnetic resonance image denoising.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Partha Sarathi; Qiu, Peihua

2013-05-30

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a popular radiology technique that is used for visualizing detailed internal structure of the body. Observed MRI images are generated by the inverse Fourier transformation from received frequency signals of a magnetic resonance scanner system. Previous research has demonstrated that random noise involved in the observed MRI images can be described adequately by the so-called Rician noise model. Under that model, the observed image intensity at a given pixel is a nonlinear function of the true image intensity and of two independent zero-mean random variables with the same normal distribution. Because of such a complicated noise structure in the observed MRI images, denoised images by conventional denoising methods are usually biased, and the bias could reduce image contrast and negatively affect subsequent image analysis. Therefore, it is important to address the bias issue properly. To this end, several bias-correction procedures have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we study the Rician noise model and the corresponding bias-correction problem systematically and propose a new and more effective bias-correction formula based on the regression analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical studies show that our proposed method works well in various applications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Lack of blinding of outcome assessors in animal model experiments implies risk of observer bias.

PubMed

Bello, Segun; Krogsbøll, Lasse T; Gruber, Jan; Zhao, Zhizhuang J; Fischer, Doris; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn

2014-09-01

To examine the impact of not blinding outcome assessors on estimates of intervention effects in animal experiments modeling human clinical conditions. We searched PubMed, Biosis, Google Scholar, and HighWire Press and included animal model experiments with both blinded and nonblinded outcome assessors. For each experiment, we calculated the ratio of odds ratios (ROR), that is, the odds ratio (OR) from nonblinded assessments relative to the corresponding OR from blinded assessments. We standardized the ORs according to the experimental hypothesis, such that an ROR <1 indicates that nonblinded assessor exaggerated intervention effect, that is, exaggerated benefit in experiments investigating possible benefit or exaggerated harm in experiments investigating possible harm. We pooled RORs with inverse variance random-effects meta-analysis. We included 10 (2,450 animals) experiments in the main meta-analysis. Outcomes were subjective in most experiments. The pooled ROR was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20, 0.82; I(2) = 75%; P < 0.001), indicating an average exaggeration of the nonblinded ORs by 59%. The heterogeneity was quantitative and caused by three pesticides experiments with very large observer bias, pooled ROR was 0.20 (95% CI, 0.07, 0.59) in contrast to the pooled ROR in the other seven experiments, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.57, 1.17). Lack of blinding of outcome assessors in animal model experiments with subjective outcomes implies a considerable risk of observer bias. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpreting anomalies observed in oxide semiconductor TFTs under negative and positive bias stress

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Jong Woo; Nathan, Arokia, E-mail: an299@cam.ac.uk; Barquinha, Pedro

2016-08-15

Oxide semiconductor thin-film transistors can show anomalous behavior under bias stress. Two types of anomalies are discussed in this paper. The first is the shift in threshold voltage (V{sub TH}) in a direction opposite to the applied bias stress, and highly dependent on gate dielectric material. We attribute this to charge trapping/detrapping and charge migration within the gate dielectric. We emphasize the fundamental difference between trapping/detrapping events occurring at the semiconductor/dielectric interface and those occurring at gate/dielectric interface, and show that charge migration is essential to explain the first anomaly. We model charge migration in terms of the non-instantaneous polarizationmore » density. The second type of anomaly is negative V{sub TH} shift under high positive bias stress, with logarithmic evolution in time. This can be argued as electron-donating reactions involving H{sub 2}O molecules or derived species, with a reaction rate exponentially accelerated by positive gate bias and exponentially decreased by the number of reactions already occurred.« less

Optimization of Angular-Momentum Biases of Reaction Wheels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Clifford; Lee, Allan

2008-01-01

RBOT [RWA Bias Optimization Tool (wherein RWA signifies Reaction Wheel Assembly )] is a computer program designed for computing angular momentum biases for reaction wheels used for providing spacecraft pointing in various directions as required for scientific observations. RBOT is currently deployed to support the Cassini mission to prevent operation of reaction wheels at unsafely high speeds while minimizing time in undesirable low-speed range, where elasto-hydrodynamic lubrication films in bearings become ineffective, leading to premature bearing failure. The problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in which maximum wheel speed limit is a hard constraint and a cost functional that increases as speed decreases below a low-speed threshold. The optimization problem is solved using a parametric search routine known as the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm. To increase computational efficiency for extended operation involving large quantity of data, the algorithm is designed to (1) use large time increments during intervals when spacecraft attitudes or rates of rotation are nearly stationary, (2) use sinusoidal-approximation sampling to model repeated long periods of Earth-point rolling maneuvers to reduce computational loads, and (3) utilize an efficient equation to obtain wheel-rate profiles as functions of initial wheel biases based on conservation of angular momentum (in an inertial frame) using pre-computed terms.

Childhood Lead Exposure from Battery Recycling in Vietnam.

PubMed

Daniell, William E; Van Tung, Lo; Wallace, Ryan M; Havens, Deborah J; Karr, Catherine J; Bich Diep, Nguyen; Croteau, Gerry A; Beaudet, Nancy J; Duy Bao, Nguyen

2015-01-01

Battery recycling facilities in developing countries can cause community lead exposure. To evaluate child lead exposure in a Vietnam battery recycling craft village after efforts to shift home-based recycling outside the village. This cross-sectional study evaluated 109 children in Dong Mai village, using blood lead level (BLL) measurement, parent interview, and household observation. Blood samples were analyzed with a LeadCare II field instrument; highest BLLs (≥45 μg/dL) were retested by laboratory analysis. Surface and soil lead were measured at 11 households and a school with X-ray fluorescence analyzer. All children had high BLLs; 28% had BLL ≥45 μg/dL. Younger age, family recycling, and outside brick surfaces were associated with higher BLL. Surface and soil lead levels were high at all tested homes, even with no recycling history. Laboratory BLLs were lower than LeadCare BLLs, in 24 retested children. In spite of improvements, lead exposure was still substantial and probably associated with continued home-based recycling, legacy contamination, and workplace take-home exposure pathways. There is a need for effective strategies to manage lead exposure from battery recycling in craft villages. These reported BLL values should be interpreted cautiously, although the observed field-laboratory discordance may reflect bias in laboratory results.

Treatment of Star Catalog Biases in Asteroid Astrometric Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

90 to +40 (Zacharias et al., 2004). (Note: The recently introduced UCAC3 catalog (Zacharias et al., 2004) covers the entire sky, thus resolving ...the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the...Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 With the catalog biases resolved , a future paper will describe the subsequent development of a

Projecting my envy onto you: neurocognitive mechanisms of an offline emotional egocentricity bias.

PubMed

Steinbeis, Nikolaus; Singer, Tania

2014-11-15

Humans often project their own beliefs, desires and emotions onto others, indicating an inherent egocentrism. In five studies we investigated the neurocognitive mechanisms underlying emotional egocentricity bias (EEB) and specifically an offline EEB, defined as the projection of one's own tendency to react with a certain emotional response pattern in a given situation onto other people. We used a competitive reaction time game associated with monetary gains and losses that allowed inducing feelings of envy and Schadenfreude. While we found evidence for the first hand experience of envy and Schadenfreude, we also observed an offline bias, that is participants on average projected feelings of envy and Schadenfreude when having to judge others. Importantly the extent of experienced and projected social emotions were highly correlated. This bias was observed when participants were both directly involved and also as an uninvolved party, suggesting the offline bias to be independent of the presently experienced emotion. Under increased time pressure however an online bias emerged whereby participants just projected their presently experienced emotions onto the other. Finally, we show that on the neural level shared neuronal networks underlie the offline EEB at least for envy. Thus, for envy, activity of the same part of anterior insula was sensitive to individual differences both in the experience and the projection of envy. These findings outline the set of circumstances leading to specific types of empathic attribution biases and show that individual differences in the experience of social emotions are predictive of the offline egocentricity bias both on a behavioral as well as a neural level. These data extend present models on the neurocognitive mechanisms of interpersonal understanding in the socio-affective domain. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bias in reporting of randomised clinical trials in oncology.

PubMed

Vera-Badillo, Francisco E; Napoleone, Marc; Krzyzanowska, Monika K; Alibhai, Shabbir M H; Chan, An-Wen; Ocana, Alberto; Seruga, Bostjan; Templeton, Arnoud J; Amir, Eitan; Tannock, Ian F

2016-07-01

Bias in reporting efficacy and toxicity in clinical trials may impact treatment decisions. Here, we report quality of reporting of efficacy and of toxicity in articles describing randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of cancer therapy and the association between biased reporting and study results, funding and financial relationships of the authors with the sponsor. We reviewed articles published from July 2010 to December 2012 in six high-impact journals reporting RCTs of systemic treatment for cancer. Bias in reporting of the primary end-point and toxicity were assessed. Associations between biased reporting and study results, funding source and financial ties of the author with the funding source were evaluated using logistic regression. Two hundred articles were identified. Among 107 RCTs where there was no statistically significant difference in the primary end-point between the two arms, 50 (47%) reports used biased reporting in the abstract of the paper to imply benefit of the experimental treatment. Toxicity was not reported in the abstract in 18.5% of the studies and this was associated with a positive primary end-point. Source of funding and financial ties were not associated with biased reporting. Bias in reporting of efficacy outcomes is common for studies with a negative primary end-point and can lead to off-label misuse of experimental therapies, if they are approved for other indications. Toxicity is under-reported, especially for studies with a positive primary end-point, leading to a biased view of the safety of new treatments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A principal components analysis of dynamic spatial memory biases.

PubMed

Motes, Michael A; Hubbard, Timothy L; Courtney, Jon R; Rypma, Bart

2008-09-01

Research has shown that spatial memory for moving targets is often biased in the direction of implied momentum and implied gravity, suggesting that representations of the subjective experiences of these physical principles contribute to such biases. The present study examined the association between these spatial memory biases. Observers viewed targets that moved horizontally from left to right before disappearing or viewed briefly shown stationary targets. After a target disappeared, observers indicated the vanishing position of the target. Principal components analysis revealed that biases along the horizontal axis of motion loaded on separate components from biases along the vertical axis orthogonal to motion. The findings support the hypothesis that implied momentum and implied gravity biases have unique influences on spatial memory. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Immortal time bias: a frequently unrecognized threat to validity in the evaluation of postoperative radiotherapy.

PubMed

Park, Henry S; Gross, Cary P; Makarov, Danil V; Yu, James B

2012-08-01

To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORT vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal Time Bias: A Frequently Unrecognized Threat to Validity in the Evaluation of Postoperative Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Henry S.; Gross, Cary P.; Makarov, Danil V.

2012-08-01

Purpose: To evaluate the influence of immortal time bias on observational cohort studies of postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) and the effectiveness of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias. Methods and Materials: First, we reviewed previous studies of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to determine how frequently this bias was considered. Second, we used SEER to select three tumor types (glioblastoma multiforme, Stage IA-IVM0 gastric adenocarcinoma, and Stage II-III rectal carcinoma) for which prospective trials demonstrated an improvement in survival associated with PORT. For each tumor type, we calculated conditional survivals and adjusted hazard ratios of PORTmore » vs. postoperative observation cohorts while restricting the sample at sequential monthly landmarks. Results: Sixty-two percent of previous SEER publications evaluating PORT failed to use a landmark analysis. As expected, delivery of PORT for all three tumor types was associated with improved survival, with the largest associated benefit favoring PORT when all patients were included regardless of survival. Preselecting a cohort with a longer minimum survival sequentially diminished the apparent benefit of PORT. Conclusions: Although the majority of previous SEER articles do not correct for it, immortal time bias leads to altered estimates of PORT effectiveness, which are very sensitive to landmark selection. We suggest the routine use of sequential landmark analysis to account for this bias.« less

A mathematical model of case-ascertainment bias: Applied to case-control studies nested within a randomized screening trial.

PubMed

Jansen, Rick J; Alexander, Bruce H; Hayes, Richard B; Miller, Anthony B; Wacholder, Sholom; Church, Timothy R

2018-01-01

When some individuals are screen-detected before the beginning of the study, but otherwise would have been diagnosed symptomatically during the study, this results in different case-ascertainment probabilities among screened and unscreened participants, referred to here as lead-time-biased case-ascertainment (LTBCA). In fact, this issue can arise even in risk-factor studies nested within a randomized screening trial; even though the screening intervention is randomly allocated to trial arms, there is no randomization to potential risk-factors and uptake of screening can differ by risk-factor strata. Under the assumptions that neither screening nor the risk factor affects underlying incidence and no other forms of bias operate, we simulate and compare the underlying cumulative incidence and that observed in the study due to LTBCA. The example used will be constructed from the randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian cancer screening trial. The derived mathematical model is applied to simulating two nested studies to evaluate the potential for screening bias in observational lung cancer studies. Because of differential screening under plausible assumptions about preclinical incidence and duration, the simulations presented here show that LTBCA due to chest x-ray screening can significantly increase the estimated risk of lung cancer due to smoking by 1% and 50%. Traditional adjustment methods cannot account for this bias, as the influence screening has on observational study estimates involves events outside of the study observation window (enrollment and follow-up) that change eligibility for potential participants, thus biasing case ascertainment.

Recursive estimators of mean-areal and local bias in precipitation products that account for conditional bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Seo, Dong-Jun

2017-03-01

This paper presents novel formulations of Mean field bias (MFB) and local bias (LB) correction schemes that incorporate conditional bias (CB) penalty. These schemes are based on the operational MFB and LB algorithms in the National Weather Service (NWS) Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE). By incorporating CB penalty in the cost function of exponential smoothers, we are able to derive augmented versions of recursive estimators of MFB and LB. Two extended versions of MFB algorithms are presented, one incorporating spatial variation of gauge locations only (MFB-L), and the second integrating both gauge locations and CB penalty (MFB-X). These two MFB schemes and the extended LB scheme (LB-X) are assessed relative to the original MFB and LB algorithms (referred to as MFB-O and LB-O, respectively) through a retrospective experiment over a radar domain in north-central Texas, and through a synthetic experiment over the Mid-Atlantic region. The outcome of the former experiment indicates that introducing the CB penalty to the MFB formulation leads to small, but consistent improvements in bias and CB, while its impacts on hourly correlation and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are mixed. Incorporating CB penalty in LB formulation tends to improve the RMSE at high rainfall thresholds, but its impacts on bias are also mixed. The synthetic experiment suggests that beneficial impacts are more conspicuous at low gauge density (9 per 58,000 km2), and tend to diminish at higher gauge density. The improvement at high rainfall intensity is partly an outcome of the conservativeness of the extended LB scheme. This conservativeness arises in part from the more frequent presence of negative eigenvalues in the extended covariance matrix which leads to no, or smaller incremental changes to the smoothed rainfall amounts.

13. OBSERVATION HALL ALONG WEST SIDE. DOUBLE DOORS LEAD TO ...

Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

13. OBSERVATION HALL ALONG WEST SIDE. DOUBLE DOORS LEAD TO MAIN ROOM. Looking north. - Edwards Air Force Base, Air Force Rocket Propulsion Laboratory, Instrumentation & Control Building, Test Area 1-115, northwest end of Saturn Boulevard, Boron, Kern County, CA

A prospective observational study assessing the feasibility of measuring blood lead levels in New Zealand hunters eating meat harvested with lead projectiles.

PubMed

Buenz, Eric J; Parry, Gareth J; Bauer, Brent A; Matheny, Lauren M; Breukel, Klaasz

2017-03-01

There is no safe level of lead exposure. Correlations suggest that hunters harvesting wild game with lead bullets may be at risk of lead exposure through eating minute lead particles from shrapnel in their wild game. This feasibility study will determine if it is possible to conduct an interventional controlled, blinded study to evaluate if there is a causal relationship between meat harvested with lead bullets and elevated blood lead levels in those who consume the meat. This is an observational case crossover study and the primary outcome is blood lead levels. Individuals will have blood lead levels measured 2-4 days after eating one serving of meat harvested with lead bullets. At three potential washout periods these same individuals will have a subsequent blood lead level analysis. This observational study will provide the data necessary to determine the washout period and sample size for a prospective interventional study to evaluate if meat harvested with lead bullets raises blood-lead levels in those who consume the meat. This study has been approved by the Health and Disabilities Ethics Committees of New Zealand. NCT02775890.

Opposing Forces of A/T-Biased Mutations and G/C-Biased Gene Conversions Shape the Genome of the Nematode Pristionchus pacificus

PubMed Central

Weller, Andreas M.; Rödelsperger, Christian; Eberhardt, Gabi; Molnar, Ruxandra I.; Sommer, Ralf J.

2014-01-01

Base substitution mutations are a major source of genetic novelty and mutation accumulation line (MAL) studies revealed a nearly universal AT bias in de novo mutation spectra. While a comparison of de novo mutation spectra with the actual nucleotide composition in the genome suggests the existence of general counterbalancing mechanisms, little is known about the evolutionary and historical details of these opposing forces. Here, we correlate MAL-derived mutation spectra with patterns observed from population resequencing. Variation observed in natural populations has already been subject to evolutionary forces. Distinction between rare and common alleles, the latter of which are close to fixation and of presumably older age, can provide insight into mutational processes and their influence on genome evolution. We provide a genome-wide analysis of de novo mutations in 22 MALs of the nematode Pristionchus pacificus and compare the spectra with natural variants observed in resequencing of 104 natural isolates. MALs show an AT bias of 5.3, one of the highest values observed to date. In contrast, the AT bias in natural variants is much lower. Specifically, rare derived alleles show an AT bias of 2.4, whereas common derived alleles close to fixation show no AT bias at all. These results indicate the existence of a strong opposing force and they suggest that the GC content of the P. pacificus genome is in equilibrium. We discuss GC-biased gene conversion as a potential mechanism acting against AT-biased mutations. This study provides insight into genome evolution by combining MAL studies with natural variation. PMID:24414549

Characterizing bias correction uncertainty in wheat yield predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, Andrea Monica; Jones, Julie; Freckleton, Robert; Scaife, Adam

2017-04-01

Farming systems are under increased pressure due to current and future climate change, variability and extremes. Research on the impacts of climate change on crop production typically rely on the output of complex Global and Regional Climate Models, which are used as input to crop impact models. Yield predictions from these top-down approaches can have high uncertainty for several reasons, including diverse model construction and parameterization, future emissions scenarios, and inherent or response uncertainty. These uncertainties propagate down each step of the 'cascade of uncertainty' that flows from climate input to impact predictions, leading to yield predictions that may be too complex for their intended use in practical adaptation options. In addition to uncertainty from impact models, uncertainty can also stem from the intermediate steps that are used in impact studies to adjust climate model simulations to become more realistic when compared to observations, or to correct the spatial or temporal resolution of climate simulations, which are often not directly applicable as input into impact models. These important steps of bias correction or calibration also add uncertainty to final yield predictions, given the various approaches that exist to correct climate model simulations. In order to address how much uncertainty the choice of bias correction method can add to yield predictions, we use several evaluation runs from Regional Climate Models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment over Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at different resolutions together with different bias correction methods (linear and variance scaling, power transformation, quantile-quantile mapping) as input to a statistical crop model for wheat, a staple European food crop. The objective of our work is to compare the resulting simulation-driven hindcasted wheat yields to climate observation-driven wheat yield hindcasts from the UK and Germany in order to determine ranges of yield

Observational selection biases in time-delay strong lensing and their impact on cosmography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collett, Thomas E.; Cunnington, Steven D.

2016-11-01

Inferring cosmological parameters from time-delay strong lenses requires a significant investment of telescope time; it is therefore tempting to focus on the systems with the brightest sources, the highest image multiplicities and the widest image separations. We investigate if this selection bias can influence the properties of the lenses studied and the cosmological parameters inferred. Using an ellipsoidal power-law deflector population, we build a sample of double- and quadruple-image systems. Assuming reasonable thresholds on image separation and flux, based on current lens monitoring campaigns, we find that the typical density profile slopes of monitorable lenses are significantly shallower than the input ensemble. From a sample of quads, we find that this selection function can introduce a 3.5 per cent bias on the inferred time-delay distances if the properties of the input ensemble are (incorrectly) used as priors on the lens model. This bias remains at the 2.4 per cent level when high-resolution imaging of the quasar host is used to precisely infer the properties of individual lenses. We also investigate if the lines of sight for monitorable strong lenses are biased. The expectation value for the line-of-sight convergence is increased by 0.009 (0.004) for quads (doubles) implying a 0.9 per cent (0.4 per cent) bias on H0. We therefore conclude that whilst the properties of typical quasar lenses and their lines of sight do deviate from the global population, the total magnitude of this effect is likely to be a subdominant effect for current analyses, but has the potential to be a major systematic for samples of ˜25 or more lenses.

Age at death of patients with colorectal cancer and the effect of lead-time bias on survival in elective vs emergency surgery.

PubMed

MacDonald, A J; McEwan, H; McCabe, M; Macdonald, A

2011-05-01

Colorectal cancer survival depends on stage at presentation, and current strategies aim for improvements through early detection. Previous studies have demonstrated improved survival from diagnosis but not increased life expectancy. While lead-time bias may account for variations in known prognostic indicators and also influence screening programmes, only age at death provides a true representation of the effectiveness of an intervention. We aimed to compare age at death for patients with colorectal cancer presenting on an emergency or elective basis. Patients presenting with colorectal cancer (2000-2006) were entered into a prospective database (analysis 1 December 2008). Fields included age at death, emergency/elective presentation, palliative/curative intent and disease stage. One thousand six hundred and fifty patients (922 men) were identified. Elective patients presented younger than emergency patients (67.9 vs 70.6 years; P < 0.005). Dukes B patients presented older than Dukes D (P = 0.02). Mortality was 41% at time of analysis; no difference was seen in mean age at death between emergency and elective presentation (72.8 vs 72.0 years; P = 0.379) or palliative and curative intent (72.0 vs 72.5 years; P = 0.604). Colorectal cancer is common in a population where actuarial life expectancy is limited. Current colorectal cancer early detection strategies may improve cancer-specific survival by increasing lead-time bias but do not influence overall life expectancy. © 2011 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2011 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Bias Reduction and Filter Convergence for Long Range Stereo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibley, Gabe; Matthies, Larry; Sukhatme, Gaurav

2005-01-01

We are concerned here with improving long range stereo by filtering image sequences. Traditionally, measurement errors from stereo camera systems have been approximated as 3-D Gaussians, where the mean is derived by triangulation and the covariance by linearized error propagation. However, there are two problems that arise when filtering such 3-D measurements. First, stereo triangulation suffers from a range dependent statistical bias; when filtering this leads to over-estimating the true range. Second, filtering 3-D measurements derived via linearized error propagation leads to apparent filter divergence; the estimator is biased to under-estimate range. To address the first issue, we examine the statistical behavior of stereo triangulation and show how to remove the bias by series expansion. The solution to the second problem is to filter with image coordinates as measurements instead of triangulated 3-D coordinates.

Perceptual Biases in Processing Facial Identity and Emotion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coolican, Jamesie; Eskes, Gail A.; McMullen, Patricia A.; Lecky, Erin

2008-01-01

Normal observers demonstrate a bias to process the left sides of faces during perceptual judgments about identity or emotion. This effect suggests a right cerebral hemisphere processing bias. To test the role of the right hemisphere and the involvement of configural processing underlying this effect, young and older control observers and patients…

The cross-cut statistic and its sensitivity to bias in observational studies with ordered doses of treatment.

PubMed

Rosenbaum, Paul R

2016-03-01

A common practice with ordered doses of treatment and ordered responses, perhaps recorded in a contingency table with ordered rows and columns, is to cut or remove a cross from the table, leaving the outer corners--that is, the high-versus-low dose, high-versus-low response corners--and from these corners to compute a risk or odds ratio. This little remarked but common practice seems to be motivated by the oldest and most familiar method of sensitivity analysis in observational studies, proposed by Cornfield et al. (1959), which says that to explain a population risk ratio purely as bias from an unobserved binary covariate, the prevalence ratio of the covariate must exceed the risk ratio. Quite often, the largest risk ratio, hence the one least sensitive to bias by this standard, is derived from the corners of the ordered table with the central cross removed. Obviously, the corners use only a portion of the data, so a focus on the corners has consequences for the standard error as well as for bias, but sampling variability was not a consideration in this early and familiar form of sensitivity analysis, where point estimates replaced population parameters. Here, this cross-cut analysis is examined with the aid of design sensitivity and the power of a sensitivity analysis. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Motion, identity and the bias toward agency

PubMed Central

Fields, Chris

2014-01-01

The well-documented human bias toward agency as a cause and therefore an explanation of observed events is typically attributed to evolutionary selection for a “social brain”. Based on a review of developmental and adult behavioral and neurocognitive data, it is argued that the bias toward agency is a result of the default human solution, developed during infancy, to the computational requirements of object re-identification over gaps in observation of more than a few seconds. If this model is correct, overriding the bias toward agency to construct mechanistic explanations of observed events requires structure-mapping inferences, implemented by the pre-motor action planning system, that replace agents with mechanisms as causes of unobserved changes in contextual or featural properties of objects. Experiments that would test this model are discussed. PMID:25191245

Adult brains don't fully overcome biases that lead to incorrect performance during cognitive development: an fMRI study in young adults completing a Piaget-like task.

PubMed

Leroux, Gaëlle; Spiess, Jeanne; Zago, Laure; Rossi, Sandrine; Lubin, Amélie; Turbelin, Marie-Renée; Mazoyer, Bernard; Tzourio-Mazoyer, Nathalie; Houdé, Olivier; Joliot, Marc

2009-03-01

A current issue in developmental science is that greater continuity in cognition between children and adults may exist than is usually appreciated in Piaget-like (stages or 'staircase') models. This phenomenon has been demonstrated at the behavioural level, but never at the brain level. Here we show with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), for the first time, that adult brains do not fully overcome the biases of childhood. More specifically, the aim of this fMRI study was to evaluate whether the perceptual bias that leads to incorrect performance during cognitive development in a Piaget-like task is still a bias in the adult brain and hence requires an executive network to overcome it. Here, we compared two numerical-judgment tasks, one being a Piaget-like task with number-length interference (called 'INT') and the other being a control task with number-length covariation ('COV'). We also used a colour-detection task to control for stimuli numerosity, spatial distribution, and frequency. Our behavioural results confirmed that INT remains a difficult task for young adults. Indeed, response times were significantly higher in INT than in COV. Moreover, we observed that only in INT did response times increase linearly as a function of the number of items. The fMRI results indicate that the brain network common to INT and COV shows a large rightward functional asymmetry, emphasizing the visuospatial nature of these two tasks. When INT was compared with COV, activations were found within a right frontal network, including the pre-supplementary motor area, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the middle frontal gyrus, which probably reflect detection of the number/length conflict and inhibition of the 'length-equals-number' response strategy. Finally, activations related to visuospatial and quantitative processing, enhanced or specifically recruited in the Piaget-like task, were found in bilateral posterior areas.

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for

Participation in an Intergenerational Service Learning Course and Implicit Biases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kogan, Lori R.; Schoenfeld-Tacher, Regina M.

2018-01-01

Biases against the elderly and people with disabilities can lead to discriminatory behaviors. One way to conceptualize attitudes toward the elderly and people with disabilities is through the differentiation of explicit (conscious) and implicit (unconscious) factors. Although both explicit and implicit attitudes and biases contribute to the full…

Emotional Encoding Context Leads to Memory Bias in Individuals with High Anxiety

PubMed Central

Fernandes, Myra A.

2017-01-01

We investigated whether anxious individuals, who adopt an inherently negative mindset, demonstrate a particularly salient memory bias for words tainted by negative contexts. To this end, sequentially presented target words, overlayed onto negative or neutral pictures, were studied in separate blocks (within-subjects) using a deep or shallow encoding instruction (between-subjects). Following study, in Test 1, participants completed separate recognition test blocks for the words overlayed onto the negative and the neutral contexts. Following this, in Test 2, participants completed a recognition test for the foils from each Test 1 block. We found a significant three-way interaction on Test 2, such that individuals with high anxiety who initially studied target words using a shallow encoding instruction, demonstrated significantly elevated memory for foils that were contained within the negative Test 1 block. Results show that during retrieval (Test 1), participants re-entered the mode of processing (negative or neutral) engaged at encoding, tainting the encoding of foils with that same mode of processing. The findings suggest that individuals with high relative to low anxiety, adopt a particularly salient negative retrieval mode, and this creates a downstream bias in encoding and subsequent retrieval of otherwise neutral information. PMID:29280957

Emotional Encoding Context Leads to Memory Bias in Individuals with High Anxiety.

PubMed

Lee, Christopher; Fernandes, Myra A

2017-12-27

We investigated whether anxious individuals, who adopt an inherently negative mindset, demonstrate a particularly salient memory bias for words tainted by negative contexts. To this end, sequentially presented target words, overlayed onto negative or neutral pictures, were studied in separate blocks (within-subjects) using a deep or shallow encoding instruction (between-subjects). Following study, in Test 1, participants completed separate recognition test blocks for the words overlayed onto the negative and the neutral contexts. Following this, in Test 2, participants completed a recognition test for the foils from each Test 1 block. We found a significant three-way interaction on Test 2, such that individuals with high anxiety who initially studied target words using a shallow encoding instruction, demonstrated significantly elevated memory for foils that were contained within the negative Test 1 block. Results show that during retrieval (Test 1), participants re-entered the mode of processing (negative or neutral) engaged at encoding, tainting the encoding of foils with that same mode of processing. The findings suggest that individuals with high relative to low anxiety, adopt a particularly salient negative retrieval mode, and this creates a downstream bias in encoding and subsequent retrieval of otherwise neutral information.

Analysis and correction of gradient nonlinearity bias in apparent diffusion coefficient measurements.

PubMed

Malyarenko, Dariya I; Ross, Brian D; Chenevert, Thomas L

2014-03-01

Gradient nonlinearity of MRI systems leads to spatially dependent b-values and consequently high non-uniformity errors (10-20%) in apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) measurements over clinically relevant field-of-views. This work seeks practical correction procedure that effectively reduces observed ADC bias for media of arbitrary anisotropy in the fewest measurements. All-inclusive bias analysis considers spatial and time-domain cross-terms for diffusion and imaging gradients. The proposed correction is based on rotation of the gradient nonlinearity tensor into the diffusion gradient frame where spatial bias of b-matrix can be approximated by its Euclidean norm. Correction efficiency of the proposed procedure is numerically evaluated for a range of model diffusion tensor anisotropies and orientations. Spatial dependence of nonlinearity correction terms accounts for the bulk (75-95%) of ADC bias for FA = 0.3-0.9. Residual ADC non-uniformity errors are amplified for anisotropic diffusion. This approximation obviates need for full diffusion tensor measurement and diagonalization to derive a corrected ADC. Practical scenarios are outlined for implementation of the correction on clinical MRI systems. The proposed simplified correction algorithm appears sufficient to control ADC non-uniformity errors in clinical studies using three orthogonal diffusion measurements. The most efficient reduction of ADC bias for anisotropic medium is achieved with non-lab-based diffusion gradients. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Childhood Lead Exposure from Battery Recycling in Vietnam

PubMed Central

Van Tung, Lo; Wallace, Ryan M.; Havens, Deborah J.; Karr, Catherine J.; Bich Diep, Nguyen; Croteau, Gerry A.; Beaudet, Nancy J.; Duy Bao, Nguyen

2015-01-01

Background. Battery recycling facilities in developing countries can cause community lead exposure. Objective. To evaluate child lead exposure in a Vietnam battery recycling craft village after efforts to shift home-based recycling outside the village. Methods. This cross-sectional study evaluated 109 children in Dong Mai village, using blood lead level (BLL) measurement, parent interview, and household observation. Blood samples were analyzed with a LeadCare II field instrument; highest BLLs (≥45 μg/dL) were retested by laboratory analysis. Surface and soil lead were measured at 11 households and a school with X-ray fluorescence analyzer. Results. All children had high BLLs; 28% had BLL ≥45 μg/dL. Younger age, family recycling, and outside brick surfaces were associated with higher BLL. Surface and soil lead levels were high at all tested homes, even with no recycling history. Laboratory BLLs were lower than LeadCare BLLs, in 24 retested children. Discussion. In spite of improvements, lead exposure was still substantial and probably associated with continued home-based recycling, legacy contamination, and workplace take-home exposure pathways. There is a need for effective strategies to manage lead exposure from battery recycling in craft villages. These reported BLL values should be interpreted cautiously, although the observed field-laboratory discordance may reflect bias in laboratory results. PMID:26587532

Partial verification bias and incorporation bias affected accuracy estimates of diagnostic studies for biomarkers that were part of an existing composite gold standard.

PubMed

Karch, Annika; Koch, Armin; Zapf, Antonia; Zerr, Inga; Karch, André

2016-10-01

To investigate how choice of gold standard biases estimates of sensitivity and specificity in studies reassessing the diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers that are already part of a lifetime composite gold standard (CGS). We performed a simulation study based on the real-life example of the biomarker "protein 14-3-3" used for diagnosing Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Three different types of gold standard were compared: perfect gold standard "autopsy" (available in a small fraction only; prone to partial verification bias), lifetime CGS (including the biomarker under investigation; prone to incorporation bias), and "best available" gold standard (autopsy if available, otherwise CGS). Sensitivity was unbiased when comparing 14-3-3 with autopsy but overestimated when using CGS or "best available" gold standard. Specificity of 14-3-3 was underestimated in scenarios comparing 14-3-3 with autopsy (up to 24%). In contrast, overestimation (up to 20%) was observed for specificity compared with CGS; this could be reduced to 0-10% when using the "best available" gold standard. Choice of gold standard affects considerably estimates of diagnostic accuracy. Using the "best available" gold standard (autopsy where available, otherwise CGS) leads to valid estimates of specificity, whereas sensitivity is estimated best when tested against autopsy alone. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The facing bias in biological motion perception: structure, kinematics, and body parts.

PubMed

Schouten, Ben; Troje, Nikolaus F; Verfaillie, Karl

2011-01-01

Depth-ambiguous point-light walkers (PLWs) elicit a facing bias: Observers perceive a PLW as facing toward them more often than as facing away (Vanrie,Dekeyser, & Verfaillie, Perception, 33, 547-560, 2004). While the facing bias correlates with the PLW's perceived gender (Brooks et al., Current Biology, 18, R728-R729, 2008; Schouten, Troje, Brooks, van der Zwan, & Verfaillie, Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 72,1256-1260, 2010), it remains unclear whether the change in perceived in-depth orientation is caused by a change in perceived gender. In Experiment 1, we show that structural and kinematic stimulus properties that lead to the same changes in perceived gender elicit opposite changes in perceived in-depth orientation, indicating that the relation between perceived gender and in-depth orientation is not causal. The results of Experiments 2 and 3 further suggest that the perceived in-depth orientation of PLWs is strongly affected by locally acting stimulus properties. The facing bias seems to be induced by stimulus properties in the lower part of the PLW.

Simulations of Biased Agonists in the β2 Adrenergic Receptor with Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

The biased agonism of the G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), where in addition to a traditional G protein-signaling pathway a GPCR promotes intracellular signals though β-arrestin, is a novel paradigm in pharmacology. Biochemical and biophysical studies have suggested that a GPCR forms a distinct ensemble of conformations signaling through the G protein and β-arrestin. Here we report on the dynamics of the β2 adrenergic receptor bound to the β-arrestin and G protein-biased agonists and the empty receptor to further characterize the receptor conformational changes caused by biased agonists. We use conventional and accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations to explore the conformational transitions of the GPCR from the active state to the inactive state. We found that aMD simulations enable monitoring of the transition within the nanosecond time scale while capturing the known microscopic characteristics of the inactive states, such as the ionic lock, the inward position of F6.44, and water clusters. Distinct conformational states are shown to be stabilized by each biased agonist. In particular, in simulations of the receptor with the β-arrestin-biased agonist N-cyclopentylbutanepherine, we observe a different pattern of motions in helix 7 when compared to simulations with the G protein-biased agonist salbutamol that involves perturbations of the network of interactions within the NPxxY motif. Understanding the network of interactions induced by biased ligands and the subsequent receptor conformational shifts will lead to development of more efficient drugs. PMID:23879802

Estimating causal contrasts involving intermediate variables in the presence of selection bias.

PubMed

Valeri, Linda; Coull, Brent A

2016-11-20

An important goal across the biomedical and social sciences is the quantification of the role of intermediate factors in explaining how an exposure exerts an effect on an outcome. Selection bias has the potential to severely undermine the validity of inferences on direct and indirect causal effects in observational as well as in randomized studies. The phenomenon of selection may arise through several mechanisms, and we here focus on instances of missing data. We study the sign and magnitude of selection bias in the estimates of direct and indirect effects when data on any of the factors involved in the analysis is either missing at random or not missing at random. Under some simplifying assumptions, the bias formulae can lead to nonparametric sensitivity analyses. These sensitivity analyses can be applied to causal effects on the risk difference and risk-ratio scales irrespectively of the estimation approach employed. To incorporate parametric assumptions, we also develop a sensitivity analysis for selection bias in mediation analysis in the spirit of the expectation-maximization algorithm. The approaches are applied to data from a health disparities study investigating the role of stage at diagnosis on racial disparities in colorectal cancer survival. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring Attitudes That Bias Teacher Observation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marston, Paul T.; Clements, Richard O.

It was hypothesized that individual differences in observer attitudes might affect the way observers code teacher behavior. A questionnaire assessing educational attitudes was given to 22 subjects who were trained on 3 classroom observation systems: the Flanders Interaction Analysis, the Classroom Observation Scales, and the Classroom Observation…

Biased predecisional processing of leading and nonleading alternatives.

PubMed

Blanchard, Simon J; Carlson, Kurt A; Meloy, Margaret G

2014-03-01

When people obtain information about choice alternatives in a set one attribute at a time, they rapidly identify a leading alternative. Although previous research has established that people then distort incoming information, it is unclear whether distortion occurs through favoring of the leading alternative, disfavoring of the trailing alternative, or both. Prior examinations have not explored the predecisional treatment of the nonleading alternative (or alternatives) because they conceptualized distortion as a singular construct in binary choice and measured it using a relative item comparing the evaluation of both alternatives simultaneously. In this article, we introduce a measure of distortion at the level of the alternative, which allows for measuring whether predecisional distortion favors or disfavors every alternative being considered in choice sets of various sizes. We report that both proleader and antitrailer distortion occur and that the use of antitrailer processing differs between binary choices and multiple-options choices.

Attention, interpretation, and memory biases in subclinical depression: a proof-of-principle test of the combined cognitive biases hypothesis.

PubMed

Everaert, Jonas; Duyck, Wouter; Koster, Ernst H W

2014-04-01

Emotional biases in attention, interpretation, and memory are viewed as important cognitive processes underlying symptoms of depression. To date, there is a limited understanding of the interplay among these processing biases. This study tested the dependence of memory on depression-related biases in attention and interpretation. Subclinically depressed and nondepressed participants completed a computerized version of the scrambled sentences test (measuring interpretation bias) while their eye movements were recorded (measuring attention bias). This task was followed by an incidental free recall test of previously constructed interpretations (measuring memory bias). Path analysis revealed a good fit for the model in which selective orienting of attention was associated with interpretation bias, which in turn was associated with a congruent bias in memory. Also, a good fit was observed for a path model in which biases in the maintenance of attention and interpretation were associated with memory bias. Both path models attained a superior fit compared with path models without the theorized functional relations among processing biases. These findings enhance understanding of how mechanisms of attention and interpretation regulate what is remembered. As such, they offer support for the combined cognitive biases hypothesis or the notion that emotionally biased cognitive processes are not isolated mechanisms but instead influence each other. Implications for theoretical models and emotion regulation across the spectrum of depressive symptoms are discussed.

Hindsight bias: how knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past.

PubMed

Hertwig, Ralph; Fanselow, Carola; Hoffrage, Ulrich

2003-01-01

Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of process models of hindsight bias can be measured. Therefore, we used it to put the recently proposed RAFT model (Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, 2000) to another test. Our findings were consistent with the "expertise effect." Specifically, we observed-using computer simulations of the RAFT model-that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias. In addition, we made two counterintuitive observations: First, the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed. Second, even if foresight knowledge is false, it can reduce hindsight bias. We conclude with a discussion of the functional value of hindsight bias.

A Principal Components Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Memory Biases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Motes, Michael A.; Hubbard, Timothy L.; Courtney, Jon R.; Rypma, Bart

2008-01-01

Research has shown that spatial memory for moving targets is often biased in the direction of implied momentum and implied gravity, suggesting that representations of the subjective experiences of these physical principles contribute to such biases. The present study examined the association between these spatial memory biases. Observers viewed…

Evaluation of ACCMIP Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Tropospheric Ozone Using TES Satellite Observations.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Kevin W.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Worden, H. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Young, P. J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Qu, Z.; delaTorre, M.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.;

Implications of CO Bias for Ozone and Methane Lifetime in a CCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Duncan, Bryan Neal; Yegorova, Elena; Douglass, Anne

2013-01-01

A low bias in carbon monoxide compared to observations at high latitudes is a common feature of chemistry climate models. CO bias can both indicate and contribute to a bias in modeled OH and methane lifetime. This study examines possible causes of CO bias in the ACCMIP simulation of the GEOSCCM, and considers how attributing the CO bias to uncertainty in CO emissions versus biases in other constituents impacts the relationship between CO bias and methane lifetime. We use a simplified model of CO tagged by source with specified OH to quantify the sensitivity of the CO bias to changes in CO emissions or OH concentration, comparing the modeled CO to surface and MOPITT observations. The simplified model shows that decreasing OH in the northern hemisphere removes most of the global mean and inter-hemispheric bias in surface CO. We then use results from this analysis to explore how adjusting CO sources in the CCM impacts the concentrations of ozone, OH and methane. The CCM simulation also exhibits biases in ozone and water vapor compared to observations. We use a parameterized CO-OH-CH4 model that takes ozone and water vapor as inputs to the parameterization to examine whether correcting water and ozone biases can alter OH enough to remove the CO bias. Through this analysis, we aim to better quantify the relationship between CO bias and model biases in ozone concentrations and methane lifetime.

Effects of biasing on the galaxy power spectrum at large scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beltran Jimenez, Jose; Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 28040, Madrid; Durrer, Ruth

2011-05-15

In this paper we study the effect of biasing on the power spectrum at large scales. We show that even though nonlinear biasing does introduce a white noise contribution on large scales, the P(k){proportional_to}k{sup n} behavior of the matter power spectrum on large scales may still be visible and above the white noise for about one decade. We show, that the Kaiser biasing scheme which leads to linear bias of the correlation function on large scales, also generates a linear bias of the power spectrum on rather small scales. This is a consequence of the divergence on small scales ofmore » the pure Harrison-Zeldovich spectrum. However, biasing becomes k dependent if we damp the underlying power spectrum on small scales. We also discuss the effect of biasing on the baryon acoustic oscillations.« less

Bias neglect: a blind spot in the evaluation of scientific results.

PubMed

Strickland, Brent; Mercier, Hugo

2014-01-01

Experimenter bias occurs when scientists' hypotheses influence their results, even if involuntarily. Meta-analyses have suggested that in some domains, such as psychology, up to a third of the studies could be unreliable due to such biases. A series of experiments demonstrates that while people are aware of the possibility that scientists can be more biased when the conclusions of their experiments fit their initial hypotheses, they robustly fail to appreciate that they should also be more sceptical of such results. This is true even when participants read descriptions of studies that have been shown to be biased. Moreover, participants take other sources of bias-such as financial incentives-into account, showing that this bias neglect may be specific to theory-driven hypothesis testing. In combination with a common style of scientific reporting, bias neglect could lead the public to accept premature conclusions.

Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hearty, Thomas J.; Savtchenko, Andrey K.; Tian, Baijun; Fetzer, Eric; Yung, Yuk L.; Theobald, Michael; Vollmer, Bruce; Fishbein, Evan; Won, Young-In

2014-01-01

We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

Perceptual and Gaze Biases during Face Processing: Related or Not?

PubMed Central

Samson, Hélène; Fiori-Duharcourt, Nicole; Doré-Mazars, Karine; Lemoine, Christelle; Vergilino-Perez, Dorine

2014-01-01

Previous studies have demonstrated a left perceptual bias while looking at faces, due to the fact that observers mainly use information from the left side of a face (from the observer's point of view) to perform a judgment task. Such a bias is consistent with the right hemisphere dominance for face processing and has sometimes been linked to a left gaze bias, i.e. more and/or longer fixations on the left side of the face. Here, we recorded eye-movements, in two different experiments during a gender judgment task, using normal and chimeric faces which were presented above, below, right or left to the central fixation point or on it (central position). Participants performed the judgment task by remaining fixated on the fixation point or after executing several saccades (up to three). A left perceptual bias was not systematically found as it depended on the number of allowed saccades and face position. Moreover, the gaze bias clearly depended on the face position as the initial fixation was guided by face position and landed on the closest half-face, toward the center of gravity of the face. The analysis of the subsequent fixations revealed that observers move their eyes from one side to the other. More importantly, no apparent link between gaze and perceptual biases was found here. This implies that we do not look necessarily toward the side of the face that we use to make a gender judgment task. Despite the fact that these results may be limited by the absence of perceptual and gaze biases in some conditions, we emphasized the inter-individual differences observed in terms of perceptual bias, hinting at the importance of performing individual analysis and drawing attention to the influence of the method used to study this bias. PMID:24454927

FIP bias in a sigmoidal active region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, D.; Brooks, D. H.; Démoulin, P.; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Green, L. M.; Steed, K.; Carlyle, J.

2014-01-01

We investigate first ionization potential (FIP) bias levels in an anemone active region (AR) - coronal hole (CH) complex using an abundance map derived from Hinode/EIS spectra. The detailed, spatially resolved abundance map has a large field of view covering 359'' × 485''. Plasma with high FIP bias, or coronal abundances, is concentrated at the footpoints of the AR loops whereas the surrounding CH has a low FIP bias, ~1, i.e. photospheric abundances. A channel of low FIP bias is located along the AR's main polarity inversion line containing a filament where ongoing flux cancellation is observed, indicating a bald patch magnetic topology characteristic of a sigmoid/flux rope configuration.

Development of Quantitative Reasoning and Gender Biases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klaczynski, Paul A.; Aneja, Alka

2002-01-01

The relationship between higher order reasoning and sex bias was investigated among children 7, 9 and 11 years old. Children read arguments enhancing their own or other gender, then rated argument intelligence, judged other children based on observations, and justified their arguments. Findings showed that own-gender reasoning biases declined with…

The role of the (111) texture on the exchange bias and interlayer coupling effects observed in sputtered NiFe/IrMn/Co trilayers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, I. L.; Nascimento, V. P.; Passamani, E. C.

2013-05-28

Magnetic properties of sputtered NiFe/IrMn/Co trilayers grown on different seed layers (Cu or Ta) deposited on Si (100) substrates were investigated by magnetometry and ferromagnetic resonance measurements. Exchange bias effect and magnetic spring behavior have been studied by changing the IrMn thickness. As shown by X-ray diffraction, Ta and Cu seed layers provoke different degrees of (111) fcc-texture that directly affect the exchange bias and indirectly modify the exchange spring coupling behavior. Increasing the IrMn thickness, it was observed that the coupling angle between the Co and NiFe ferromagnetic layers increases for the Cu seed system, but it reduces formore » the Ta case. The results were explained considering (i) different anisotropies of the Co and IrMn layers induced by the different degree of the (111) texture and (ii) the distinct exchange bias set at the NiFe/IrMn and IrMn/Co interfaces in both systems. The NiFe and Co interlayer coupling angle is strongly correlated with both exchange bias and exchange magnetic spring phenomena. It was also shown that the highest exchange bias field occurs when an unstressed L1{sub 2} IrMn structure is stabilized.« less

Tropical Indian Ocean surface salinity bias in Climate Forecasting System coupled models and the role of upper ocean processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Sayantani, Ojha; Fousiya, T. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2016-04-01

In the present study sea surface salinity (SSS) biases and seasonal tendency over the Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in the coupled models [Climate Forecasting System version 1 (CFSv1) and version 2 (CFSv2)] are examined with respect to observations. Both CFSv1 and CFSv2 overestimate SSS over the TIO throughout the year. CFSv1 displays improper SSS seasonal cycle over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), which is due to weaker model precipitation and improper river runoff especially during summer and fall. Over the southeastern Arabian Sea (AS) weak horizontal advection associated with East Indian coastal current during winter limits the formation of spring fresh water pool. On the other hand, weaker Somali jet during summer results for reduced positive salt tendency in the central and eastern AS. Strong positive precipitation bias in CFSv1 over the region off Somalia during winter, weaker vertical mixing and absence of horizontal salt advection lead to unrealistic barrier layer during winter and spring. The weaker stratification and improper spatial distribution of barrier layer thickness (BLT) in CFSv1 indicate that not only horizontal flux distribution but also vertical salt distribution displays large discrepancies. Absence of fall Wyrtki jet and winter equatorial currents in this model limit the advection of horizontal salt flux to the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The associated weaker stratification in eastern equatorial Indian Ocean can lead to deeper mixed layer and negative Sea Surface Temperature (SST) bias, which in turn favor positive Indian Ocean Dipole bias in CFSv1. It is important to note that improper spatial distribution of barrier layer and stratification can alter the air-sea interaction and precipitation in the models. On the other hand CFSv2 could produce the seasonal evolution and spatial distribution of SSS, BLT and stratification better than CFSv1. However CFSv2 displays positive bias in evaporation over the whole domain and negative bias in

Study of current collapse by quiescent-bias-stresses in rf-plasma assisted MBE grown AlGaN/GaN high-electron-mobility transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arulkumaran, S.; Ng, G. I.; Lee, C. H.; Liu, Z. H.; Radhakrishnan, K.; Dharmarasu, N.; Sun, Z.

2010-11-01

Studies on the influence of quiescent-gate ( Vgs0) and quiescent-drain ( Vds0) bias stresses in rf-plasma MBE grown AlGaN/GaN high-electron-mobility transistors (HEMTs) were performed. The increase of drain current ( ID) collapse by quiescent-bias-stress in AlGaN/GaN HEMTs were observed using pulsed (pulse width = 200 ns; pulse period = 1 ms) IDS- VDS characteristics. The Si 3N 4 passivation suppressed about 80% ID collapse in quiescent-bias-point stressed HEMTs. The remaining 20% ID collapse were not suppressed which may be coming from buffer-related traps. However, more than 10% of ID collapse suppression was observed on un-stressed or fresh-HEMTs. Similarly, improved cut-off frequency ( fT), maximum oscillation frequency ( fmax) and device output power ( Pout) values were also observed on the un-stressed HEMTs. The Si 3N 4 passivation completely suppressed the ID collapse in un-stressed or fresh-HEMTs which leads to 70% improvement in fT and 60% improvement in the device Pout. The Si 3N 4 passivation did not completely suppress ID collapse in the quiescent-bias stressed-HEMTs. This may be due to the generation of additional surface-related traps in the HEMTs by quiescent-bias-stresses.

SU-F-I-80: Correction for Bias in a Channelized Hotelling Model Observer Caused by Temporally Variable Non-Stationary Noise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Favazza, C; Fetterly, K

2016-06-15

Purpose: Application of a channelized Hotelling model observer (CHO) over a wide range of x-ray angiography detector target dose (DTD) levels demonstrated substantial bias for conditions yielding low detectability indices (d’), including low DTD and small test objects. The purpose of this work was to develop theory and methods to correct this bias. Methods: A hypothesis was developed wherein the measured detectability index (d’b) for a known test object is positively biased by temporally variable non-stationary noise in the images. Hotelling’s T2 test statistic provided the foundation for a mathematical theory which accounts for independent contributions to the measured d’bmore » value from both the test object (d’o) and non-stationary noise (d’ns). Experimental methods were developed to directly estimate d’o by determining d’ns and subtracting it from d’b, in accordance with the theory. Specifically, d’ns was determined from two sets of images from which the traditional test object was withheld. This method was applied to angiography images with DTD levels in the range 0 to 240 nGy and for disk-shaped iodine-based contrast targets with diameters 0.5 to 4.0 mm. Results: Bias in d’ was evidenced by d’b values which exceeded values expected from a quantum limited imaging system and decreasing object size and DTD. d’ns increased with decreasing DTD, reaching a maximum of 2.6 for DTD = 0. Bias-corrected d’o estimates demonstrated sub-quantum limited performance of the x-ray angiography for low DTD. Findings demonstrated that the source of non-stationary noise was detector electronic readout noise. Conclusion: Theory and methods to estimate and correct bias in CHO measurements from temporally variable non-stationary noise were presented. The temporal non-stationary noise was shown to be due to electronic readout noise. This method facilitates accurate estimates of d’ values over a large range of object size and detector target dose.« less

Galaxy bias and primordial non-Gaussianity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Schmidt, Fabian, E-mail: assassi@ias.edu, E-mail: D.D.Baumann@uva.nl, E-mail: fabians@MPA-Garching.MPG.DE

2015-12-01

We present a systematic study of galaxy biasing in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. For a large class of non-Gaussian initial conditions, we define a general bias expansion and prove that it is closed under renormalization, thereby showing that the basis of operators in the expansion is complete. We then study the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity on the statistics of galaxies. We show that the equivalence principle enforces a relation between the scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum and that in the dipolar part of the bispectrum. This provides a powerful consistency check to confirm the primordial origin ofmore » any observed scale-dependent bias. Finally, we also discuss the imprints of anisotropic non-Gaussianity as motivated by recent studies of higher-spin fields during inflation.« less

Investigation of the transition of multicycle AC operation in ISTTOK under edge electrode biasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malaquias, A.; Henriques, R. B.; Silva, C.; Figueiredo, H.; Nedzelskiy, I. S.; Fernandes, H.; Sharma, R.; Plyusnin, V. V.

2017-11-01

In this paper we present recent results obtained on plasma edge electrode biasing during AC discharges. The goal is to obtain experimental evidence on a number of plasma parameters that can play a role during the AC transition on the repeatability and reproducibility of AC operation. The control of the plasma density in the quiescent phase is made just before the AC transition by means of positive edge biasing leading to a transitory improved of density (30%-40%). Gas puff experiments show that the increase of background gas pressure during discharge led to a better success of the AC transition. The experimental results indicate that the increase of density during the AC transition induced by edge biasing is followed by an electron temperature drop. The drop in electron temperature leads in most cases the formation of runaway electrons. It has been observed that the runaway population during discharge flattop depends on the interplay between gas content and plasma density and temperature. The results also confirm that the correct balance of external magnetic fields is crucial during the AC transition phase where drift electron currents are formed. The results from the heavy ion beam diagnostic show that the formation of plasma current during consecutive AC transitions is asymmetric. Numerical simulations indicate that for some particular conditions this result could be reproduced from assuming the presence of two counter-currents during AC transition.

Data Assimilation to Extract Soil Moisture Information From SMAP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolassa, J.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Q.; Alemohammad, S. H.; Gentine, P.

2017-01-01

Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, they can be used to reduce the need for localized bias correction techniques typically implemented in data assimilation (DA) systems that tend to remove some of the independent information provided by satellite observations. Here, we use a statistical neural network (NN) algorithm to retrieve SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture estimates in the climatology of the NASA Catchment land surface model. Assimilating these estimates without additional bias correction is found to significantly reduce the model error and increase the temporal correlation against SMAP CalVal in situ observations over the contiguous United States. A comparison with assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques shows that the NN approach better retains the independent information provided by the SMAP observations and thus leads to larger model skill improvements during the assimilation. A comparison with the SMAP Level 4 product shows that the NN approach is able to provide comparable skill improvements and thus represents a viable assimilation approach.

What causes the facing-the-viewer bias in biological motion?

PubMed

Weech, Séamas; McAdam, Matthew; Kenny, Sophie; Troje, Nikolaus F

2014-10-13

Orthographically projected biological motion point-light displays are generally ambiguous with respect to their orientation in depth, yet observers consistently prefer the facing-the-viewer interpretation. There has been discussion as to whether this bias can be attributed to the social relevance of biological motion stimuli or relates to local, low-level stimulus properties. In the present study we address this question. In Experiment 1, we compared the facing-the-viewer bias produced by a series of four stick figures and three human silhouettes that differed in posture, gender, and the presence versus absence of walking motion. Using a paradigm in which we asked observers to indicate the spinning direction of these figures, we found no bias when participants observed silhouettes, whereas a pronounced degree of bias was elicited by most stick figures. We hypothesized that the ambiguous surface normals on the lines and dots that comprise stick figures are prone to a visual bias that assumes surfaces to be convex. The local surface orientations of the occluding contours of silhouettes are unambiguous, and as such the convexity bias does not apply. In Experiment 2, we tested the role of local features in ambiguous surface perception by adding dots to the elbows and knees of silhouettes. We found biases consistent with the facing directions implied by a convex body surface. The results unify a number of findings regarding the facing-the-viewer bias. We conclude that the facing-the-viewer bias is established at the level of surface reconstruction from local image features rather than on a semantic level. © 2014 ARVO.

Biased selection within the social health insurance market in Colombia.

PubMed

Castano, Ramon; Zambrano, Andres

2006-12-01

Reducing the impact of insurance market failures with regulations such as community-rated premiums, standardized benefit packages and open enrolment, yield limited effect because they create room for selection bias. The Colombian social health insurance system started a market approach in 1993 expecting to improve performance of preexisting monopolistic insurance funds by exposing them to competition by new entrants. This paper tests the hypothesis that market failures would lead to biased selection favoring new entrants. Two household surveys are analyzed using Self-Reported Health Status and the presence of chronic conditions as prospective indicators of individual risk. Biased selection is found to take place, leading to adverse selection among incumbents, and favorable selection among new entrants. This pattern is absent in 1997 but is evident in 2003. Given that the two incumbents analyzed are public organizations, the fiscal implications of the findings in terms of government bailouts, are analyzed.

Biases in GNSS-Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaer, S. C.; Dach, R.; Lutz, S.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.

2010-12-01

Within the Global Positioning System (GPS) traditionally different types of pseudo-range measurements (P-code, C/A-code) are available on the first frequency that are tracked by the receivers with different technologies. For that reason, P1-C1 and P1-P2 Differential Code Biases (DCB) need to be considered in a GPS data processing with a mix of different receiver types. Since the Block IIR-M series of GPS satellites also provide C/A-code on the second frequency, P2-C2 DCB need to be added to the list of biases for maintenance. Potential quarter-cycle biases between different phase observables (specifically L2P and L2C) are another issue. When combining GNSS (currently GPS and GLONASS), careful consideration of inter-system biases (ISB) is indispensable, in particular when an adequate combination of individual GLONASS clock correction results from different sources (using, e.g., different software packages) is intended. Facing the GPS and GLONASS modernization programs and the upcoming GNSS, like the European Galileo and the Chinese Compass, an increasing number of types of biases is expected. The Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) is monitoring these GPS and GLONASS related biases for a long time based on RINEX files of the tracking network of the International GNSS Service (IGS) and in the frame of the data processing as one of the global analysis centers of the IGS. Within the presentation we give an overview on the stability of the biases based on the monitoring. Biases derived from different sources are compared. Finally, we give an outlook on the potential handling of such biases with the big variety of signals and systems expected in the future.

Attention bias modification training under working memory load increases the magnitude of change in attentional bias.

PubMed

Clarke, Patrick J F; Branson, Sonya; Chen, Nigel T M; Van Bockstaele, Bram; Salemink, Elske; MacLeod, Colin; Notebaert, Lies

2017-12-01

Attention bias modification (ABM) procedures have shown promise as a therapeutic intervention, however current ABM procedures have proven inconsistent in their ability to reliably achieve the requisite change in attentional bias needed to produce emotional benefits. This highlights the need to better understand the precise task conditions that facilitate the intended change in attention bias in order to realise the therapeutic potential of ABM procedures. Based on the observation that change in attentional bias occurs largely outside conscious awareness, the aim of the current study was to determine if an ABM procedure delivered under conditions likely to preclude explicit awareness of the experimental contingency, via the addition of a working memory load, would contribute to greater change in attentional bias. Bias change was assessed among 122 participants in response to one of four ABM tasks given by the two experimental factors of ABM training procedure delivered either with or without working memory load, and training direction of either attend-negative or avoid-negative. Findings revealed that avoid-negative ABM procedure under working memory load resulted in significantly greater reductions in attentional bias compared to the equivalent no-load condition. The current findings will require replication with clinical samples to determine the utility of the current task for achieving emotional benefits. These present findings are consistent with the position that the addition of a working memory load may facilitate change in attentional bias in response to an ABM training procedure. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Battle over Studies of Faculty Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gravois, John

2007-01-01

The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) recently commissioned a study to review the research that finds liberal bias run amok in academe. Believing that the AFT is not a dispassionate observer of this debate, this article provides "The Chronicle of Higher Education's" survey of the genre. The studies reviewed include: (1) "Political Bias in the…

Lateral bias in theatre-seat choice.

PubMed

Harms, Victoria; Reese, Miriam; Elias, Lorin J

2014-01-01

Examples of behavioural asymmetries are common in the range of human behaviour; even when faced with a symmetrical environment people demonstrate reliable asymmetries in behaviours like gesturing, cradling, and even seating. One such asymmetry is the observation that participants tend to choose seats to the right of the screen when asked to select their preferred seating location in a movie theatre. However, these results are based on seat selection using a seating chart rather than examining real seat choice behaviour in the theatre context. This study investigated the real-world seating patterns of theatre patrons during actual film screenings. Analysis of bias scores calculated using photographs of theatre patrons revealed a significant bias to choose seats on the right side of the theatre. These findings are consistent with the prior research in the area and confirm that the seating bias observed when seats are selected from a chart accurately reflects real-world seating behaviour.

Mapping species distributions with MAXENT using a geographically biased sample of presence data: a performance assessment of methods for correcting sampling bias.

PubMed

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one "virtual" derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

Decoupling global biases and local interactions between cell biological variables

PubMed Central

Zaritsky, Assaf; Obolski, Uri; Gan, Zhuo; Reis, Carlos R; Kadlecova, Zuzana; Du, Yi; Schmid, Sandra L; Danuser, Gaudenz

2017-01-01

Analysis of coupled variables is a core concept of cell biological inference, with co-localization of two molecules as a proxy for protein interaction being a ubiquitous example. However, external effectors may influence the observed co-localization independently from the local interaction of two proteins. Such global bias, although biologically meaningful, is often neglected when interpreting co-localization. Here, we describe DeBias, a computational method to quantify and decouple global bias from local interactions between variables by modeling the observed co-localization as the cumulative contribution of a global and a local component. We showcase four applications of DeBias in different areas of cell biology, and demonstrate that the global bias encapsulates fundamental mechanistic insight into cellular behavior. The DeBias software package is freely accessible online via a web-server at https://debias.biohpc.swmed.edu. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.22323.001 PMID:28287393

Impurity-induced anisotropic semiconductor-semimetal transition in monolayer biased black phosphorus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, D. H.; Yarmohammadi, Mohsen

2018-07-01

Taking into account the electron-impurity interaction within the continuum approximation of tight-binding model, the Born approximation, and the Green's function method, the main features of anisotropic electronic phase transition are investigated in monolayer biased black phosphorus (BP). To this end, we concentrated on the disordered electronic density of states (DOS), which gives useful information for electro-optical devices. Increasing the impurity concentration in both unbiased and biased impurity-infected single-layer BP, in addition to the decrease of the band gap, independent of the direction, leads to the midgap states and an extra Van Hove singularity inside and outside of the band gap, respectively. Furthermore, strong impurity scattering potentials lead to a semiconductor-semimetal transition and one more Van Hove singularity in x-direction of unbiased BP and surprisingly, this transition does not occur in biased BP. We found that there is no phase transition in y-direction. Since real applications require structures with modulated band gaps, we have studied the influence of different bias voltages on the disordered DOS in both directions, resulting in the increase of the band gap.

The malleability of emotional perception: Short-term plasticity in retinotopic neurons accompanies the formation of perceptual biases to threat.

PubMed

Thigpen, Nina N; Bartsch, Felix; Keil, Andreas

2017-04-01

Emotional experience changes visual perception, leading to the prioritization of sensory information associated with threats and opportunities. These emotional biases have been extensively studied by basic and clinical scientists, but their underlying mechanism is not known. The present study combined measures of brain-electric activity and autonomic physiology to establish how threat biases emerge in human observers. Participants viewed stimuli designed to differentially challenge known properties of different neuronal populations along the visual pathway: location, eye, and orientation specificity. Biases were induced using aversive conditioning with only 1 combination of eye, orientation, and location predicting a noxious loud noise and replicated in a separate group of participants. Selective heart rate-orienting responses for the conditioned threat stimulus indicated bias formation. Retinotopic visual brain responses were persistently and selectively enhanced after massive aversive learning for only the threat stimulus and dissipated after extinction training. These changes were location-, eye-, and orientation-specific, supporting the hypothesis that short-term plasticity in primary visual neurons mediates the formation of perceptual biases to threat. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Fluid simulation of the bias effect in inductive/capacitive discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yu-Ru; Research Group PLASMANT, Department of Chemistry, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, Wilrijk, BE-2610 Antwerp; Gao, Fei

Computer simulations are performed for an argon inductively coupled plasma (ICP) with a capacitive radio-frequency bias power, to investigate the bias effect on the discharge mode transition and on the plasma characteristics at various ICP currents, bias voltages, and bias frequencies. When the bias frequency is fixed at 13.56 MHz and the ICP current is low, e.g., 6 A, the spatiotemporal averaged plasma density increases monotonically with bias voltage, and the bias effect is already prominent at a bias voltage of 90 V. The maximum of the ionization rate moves toward the bottom electrode, which indicates clearly the discharge mode transition in inductive/capacitivemore » discharges. At higher ICP currents, i.e., 11 and 13 A, the plasma density decreases first and then increases with bias voltage, due to the competing mechanisms between the ion acceleration power dissipation and the capacitive power deposition. At 11 A, the bias effect is still important, but it is noticeable only at higher bias voltages. At 13 A, the ionization rate is characterized by a maximum at the reactor center near the dielectric window at all selected bias voltages, which indicates that the ICP power, instead of the bias power, plays a dominant role under this condition, and no mode transition is observed. Indeed, the ratio of the bias power to the total power is lower than 0.4 over a wide range of bias voltages, i.e., 0–300 V. Besides the effect of ICP current, also the effect of various bias frequencies is investigated. It is found that the modulation of the bias power to the spatiotemporal distributions of the ionization rate at 2 MHz is strikingly different from the behavior observed at higher bias frequencies. Furthermore, the minimum of the plasma density appears at different bias voltages, i.e., 120 V at 2 MHz and 90 V at 27.12 MHz.« less

Steady-state and quench-dependent relaxation of a quantum dot coupled to one-dimensional leads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuss, Martin; Ganahl, Martin; Evertz, Hans Gerd; Arrigoni, Enrico; von der Linden, Wolfgang

2013-07-01

We study the time evolution and steady state of the charge current in a single-impurity Anderson model, using matrix product states techniques. A nonequilibrium situation is imposed by applying a bias voltage across one-dimensional tight-binding leads. Focusing on particle-hole symmetry, we extract current-voltage characteristics from universal low-bias up to high-bias regimes, where band effects start to play a dominant role. We discuss three quenches, which after strongly quench-dependent transients yield the same steady-state current. Among these quenches we identify those favorable for extracting steady-state observables. The period of short-time oscillations is shown to compare well to real-time renormalization group results for a simpler model of spinless fermions. We find indications that many-body effects play an important role at high-bias voltage and finite bandwidth of the metallic leads. The growth of entanglement entropy after a certain time scale ∝Δ-1 is the major limiting factor for calculating the time evolution. We show that the magnitude of the steady-state current positively correlates with entanglement entropy. The role of high-energy states for the steady-state current is explored by considering a damping term in the time evolution.

Bias Correction of Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) using a User-friendly Tool: A Step in Enhancing Technical Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushi, B. R.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Adams, E. C.; Flores, A.; Limaye, A. S.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Mithieu, F.; Omondi, S.

2017-12-01

SERVIR, a joint NASA-USAID initiative, works to build capacity in Earth observation technologies in developing countries for improved environmental decision making in the arena of: weather and climate, water and disasters, food security and land use/land cover. SERVIR partners with leading regional organizations in Eastern and Southern Africa, Hindu Kush-Himalaya, Mekong region, and West Africa to achieve its objectives. SERVIR develops hydrological applications to address specific needs articulated by key stakeholders and daily rainfall estimates are a vital input for these applications. Satellite-derived rainfall is subjected to systemic biases which need to be corrected before it can be used for any hydrologic application such as real-time or seasonal forecasting. SERVIR and the SWAAT team at the University of Arizona, have co-developed an open-source and user friendly tool of rainfall bias correction approaches for SPPs. Bias correction tools were developed based on Linear Scaling and Quantile Mapping techniques. A set of SPPs, such as PERSIANN-CCS, TMPA-RT, and CMORPH, are bias corrected using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data which incorporates ground based precipitation observations. This bias correction tools also contains a component, which is included to improve monthly mean of CHIRPS using precipitation products of the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) database developed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). This tool takes input from command-line which makes it user-friendly and applicable in any operating platform without prior programming skills. This presentation will focus on this bias-correction tool for SPPs, including application scenarios.

Low-Metallicity Lead Stars: Comparison between Theory and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisterzo, S.; Gallino, R.; Straniero, O.; Aoki, W.; Ryan, S.; Beers, T. C.

2006-07-01

We compare AGB theoretical models with spectroscopic abundances of a sample of very metal-poor, C-rich, s-rich and lead-rich stars observed at high-resolution spectroscopy. Fits are obtained for AGB models with different 13C-pocket efficiencies and initial masses. The two intrinsic indicators, [hs/ls] and [Pb/hs] versus [Fe/H], are analyzed. An extended analysis of all the observed elements is made, outlining apparent discrepancies for a few elements. The analysis of C and N abundances strengthen the need of a strong cool bottom process occurring during the AGB. A significant number of these stars are both s-enriched and r-enriched. For them, the envelope abundances are predicted by mass transfer from the more massive AGB companion in a binary system from a parental cloud already enriched in r-elements.

Suspected survivor bias in case-control studies: stratify on survival time and use a negative control.

PubMed

van Rein, Nienke; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Rosendaal, Frits R; Reitsma, Pieter H; Lijfering, Willem M

2014-02-01

Selection bias in case-control studies occurs when control selection is inappropriate. However, selection bias due to improper case sampling is less well recognized. We describe how to recognize survivor bias (i.e., selection on exposed cases) and illustrate this with an example study. A case-control study was used to analyze the effect of statins on major bleedings during treatment with vitamin K antagonists. A total of 110 patients who experienced such bleedings were included 18-1,018 days after the bleeding complication and matched to 220 controls. A protective association of major bleeding for exposure to statins (odds ratio [OR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-1.08) was found, which did not become stronger after adjustment for confounding factors. These observations lead us to suspect survivor bias. To identify this bias, results were stratified on time between bleeding event and inclusion, and repeated for a negative control (an exposure not related to survival): blood group non-O. The ORs for exposure to statins increased gradually to 1.37 with shorter time between outcome and inclusion, whereas ORs for the negative control remained constant, confirming our hypothesis. We recommend the presented method to check for overoptimistic results, that is, survivor bias in case-control studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hints of hybridizing Majorana fermions in a nanowire coupled to superconducting leads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finck, A. D. K.; van Harlingen, D. J.; Mohseni, P. K.; Jung, K.; Li, X.

2013-03-01

It has been proposed that a nanowire with strong spin-orbit coupling that is contacted with a conventional superconductor and subjected to a large magnetic field can be driven through a topological phase transition. In this regime, the two ends of the nanowire together host a pair of quasi-particles known as Majorana fermions (MFs). A key feature of MFs is that they are pinned to zero energy when the topological nanowire is long enough such that the wave functions of the two MFs do not overlap significantly, resulting in a zero bias anomaly (ZBA). It has been recently predicted that changes in external parameters can vary the wave function overlap and cause the MFs to hybridize in an oscillatory fashion. This would lead to a non-monotonic splitting or broadening of the ZBA and help distinguish MF transport signatures from a Kondo effect. Here, we present transport studies of an InAs nanowire contacted with niobium nitride leads in high magnetic fields. We observe a number of robust ZBAs that can persist for a wide range of back gate bias and magnetic field strength. Under certain conditions, we find that the height and width of the ZBA can oscillate with back gate bias or magnetic field. This work was supported by Microsoft Project Q.

Evaluating species richness: biased ecological inference results from spatial heterogeneity in species detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

McNew, Lance B.; Handel, Colleen M.

2015-01-01

Accurate estimates of species richness are necessary to test predictions of ecological theory and evaluate biodiversity for conservation purposes. However, species richness is difficult to measure in the field because some species will almost always be overlooked due to their cryptic nature or the observer's failure to perceive their cues. Common measures of species richness that assume consistent observability across species are inviting because they may require only single counts of species at survey sites. Single-visit estimation methods ignore spatial and temporal variation in species detection probabilities related to survey or site conditions that may confound estimates of species richness. We used simulated and empirical data to evaluate the bias and precision of raw species counts, the limiting forms of jackknife and Chao estimators, and multi-species occupancy models when estimating species richness to evaluate whether the choice of estimator can affect inferences about the relationships between environmental conditions and community size under variable detection processes. Four simulated scenarios with realistic and variable detection processes were considered. Results of simulations indicated that (1) raw species counts were always biased low, (2) single-visit jackknife and Chao estimators were significantly biased regardless of detection process, (3) multispecies occupancy models were more precise and generally less biased than the jackknife and Chao estimators, and (4) spatial heterogeneity resulting from the effects of a site covariate on species detection probabilities had significant impacts on the inferred relationships between species richness and a spatially explicit environmental condition. For a real dataset of bird observations in northwestern Alaska, the four estimation methods produced different estimates of local species richness, which severely affected inferences about the effects of shrubs on local avian richness. Overall, our results

Fluency and belief bias in deductive reasoning: new indices for old effects

PubMed Central

Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Verde, Michael F.

2014-01-01

Models based on signal detection theory (SDT) have occupied a prominent role in domains such as perception, categorization, and memory. Recent work by Dube et al. (2010) suggests that the framework may also offer important insights in the domain of deductive reasoning. Belief bias in reasoning has traditionally been examined using indices based on raw endorsement rates—indices that critics have claimed are highly problematic. We discuss a new set of SDT indices fit for the investigation belief bias and apply them to new data examining the effect of perceptual disfluency on belief bias in syllogisms. In contrast to the traditional approach, the SDT indices do not violate important statistical assumptions, resulting in a decreased Type 1 error rate. Based on analyses using these novel indices we demonstrate that perceptual disfluency leads to decreased reasoning accuracy, contrary to predictions. Disfluency also appears to eliminate the typical link found between cognitive ability and the effect of beliefs on accuracy. Finally, replicating previous work, we demonstrate that cognitive ability leads to an increase in reasoning accuracy and a decrease in the response bias component of belief bias. PMID:25009515

On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability.

PubMed

Stanovich, Keith E; West, Richard F

2008-04-01

In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, "less is more" effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Bias to experience approaching motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment.

PubMed

Lewis, Clifford F; McBeath, Michael K

2004-01-01

We used two-frame apparent motion in a three-dimensional virtual environment to test whether observers had biases to experience approaching or receding motion in depth. Observers viewed a tunnel of tiles receding in depth, that moved ambiguously either toward or away from them. We found that observers exhibited biases to experience approaching motion. The strengths of the biases were decreased when stimuli pointed away, but size of the display screen had no effect. Tests with diamond-shaped tiles that varied in the degree of pointing asymmetry resulted in a linear trend in which the bias was strongest for stimuli pointing toward the viewer, and weakest for stimuli pointing away. We show that the overall bias to experience approaching motion is consistent with a computational strategy of matching corresponding features between adjacent foreshortened stimuli in consecutive visual frames. We conclude that there are both adaptational and geometric reasons to favor the experience of approaching motion.

Evaluation of Electrochemical Migration on Printed Circuit Boards with Lead-Free and Tin-Lead Solder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xiaofei; Azarian, Michael H.; Pecht, Michael G.

2011-09-01

To evaluate the current leakage and electrochemical migration behavior on printed circuit boards with eutectic tin-lead and lead-free solder, IPC B-24 comb structures were exposed to 65°C and 88% relative humidity conditions under direct-current (DC) bias for over 1500 h. These boards were processed with either Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu solder or Sn-37Pb solder. In addition to solder alloy, board finish (organic solderability preservative versus lead-free hot air solder leveling), spacing (25 mil versus 12.5 mil), and voltage (40 V versus 5 V bias) were also assessed by using in situ measurements of surface insulation resistance (SIR) and energy-dispersive spectroscopy after testing. It was shown that an initial increase of SIR was caused by consumption of electroactive species on the surface, intermittent drops of SIR were caused by dendritic growth, and a long-term SIR decline was caused by electrodeposition of a metallic layer. The prolonged SIR decline of Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu boards was simulated by three-dimensional (3D) progressive and instantaneous nucleation models, whose predictions were compared with experimental data. Sn-37Pb boards exhibited comigration of Sn, Pb, and Cu, while Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu boards incurred comigration of Sn, Ag, and Cu. Among the migrated species, Sn always dominated and was observed as either a layer or in polyhedral deposits, Pb was the most common element found in the dendrites, Cu was a minor constituent, and Ag migrated only occasionally. Compared with solder alloy, board finishes played a secondary role in affecting SIR due to their complexation with or dissolution into the solder. The competing effect between electric field and spacing was also investigated.

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2017-02-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term "bias due to incomplete matching" to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used.

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term “bias due to incomplete matching” to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used. PMID:25038071

Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

PubMed Central

Fourcade, Yoan; Engler, Jan O.; Rödder, Dennis; Secondi, Jean

2014-01-01

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases. PMID:24818607

Increasing Principal Preparation Candidates' Awareness of Biases in Educational Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Karen D.; Ringler, Marjorie C.

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study was to determine whether the study of diversity topics embedded in a Principal Preparation Program (PPP) internship changed candidates' self-awareness of their biases in educational environments and the biases they observed in their school community. In this study PPP candidates' perceptions of their biases and those of…

On the linearity of tracer bias around voids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollina, Giorgia; Hamaus, Nico; Dolag, Klaus; Weller, Jochen; Baldi, Marco; Moscardini, Lauro

2017-07-01

The large-scale structure of the Universe can be observed only via luminous tracers of the dark matter. However, the clustering statistics of tracers are biased and depend on various properties, such as their host-halo mass and assembly history. On very large scales, this tracer bias results in a constant offset in the clustering amplitude, known as linear bias. Towards smaller non-linear scales, this is no longer the case and tracer bias becomes a complicated function of scale and time. We focus on tracer bias centred on cosmic voids, I.e. depressions of the density field that spatially dominate the Universe. We consider three types of tracers: galaxies, galaxy clusters and active galactic nuclei, extracted from the hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder. In contrast to common clustering statistics that focus on auto-correlations of tracers, we find that void-tracer cross-correlations are successfully described by a linear bias relation. The tracer-density profile of voids can thus be related to their matter-density profile by a single number. We show that it coincides with the linear tracer bias extracted from the large-scale auto-correlation function and expectations from theory, if sufficiently large voids are considered. For smaller voids we observe a shift towards higher values. This has important consequences on cosmological parameter inference, as the problem of unknown tracer bias is alleviated up to a constant number. The smallest scales in existing data sets become accessible to simpler models, providing numerous modes of the density field that have been disregarded so far, but may help to further reduce statistical errors in constraining cosmology.

Shape measurement biases from underfitting and ellipticity gradients

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Gary M.

2010-08-21

With this study, precision weak gravitational lensing experiments require measurements of galaxy shapes accurate to <1 part in 1000. We investigate measurement biases, noted by Voigt and Bridle (2009) and Melchior et al. (2009), that are common to shape measurement methodologies that rely upon fitting elliptical-isophote galaxy models to observed data. The first bias arises when the true galaxy shapes do not match the models being fit. We show that this "underfitting bias" is due, at root, to these methods' attempts to use information at high spatial frequencies that has been destroyed by the convolution with the point-spread function (PSF)more » and/or by sampling. We propose a new shape-measurement technique that is explicitly confined to observable regions of k-space. A second bias arises for galaxies whose ellipticity varies with radius. For most shape-measurement methods, such galaxies are subject to "ellipticity gradient bias". We show how to reduce such biases by factors of 20–100 within the new shape-measurement method. The resulting shear estimator has multiplicative errors < 1 part in 10 3 for high-S/N images, even for highly asymmetric galaxies. Without any training or recalibration, the new method obtains Q = 3000 in the GREAT08 Challenge of blind shear reconstruction on low-noise galaxies, several times better than any previous method.« less

Measurement of the $B^-$ lifetime using a simulation free approach for trigger bias correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aaltonen, T.; /Helsinki Inst. of Phys.; Adelman, J.

2010-04-01

The collection of a large number of B hadron decays to hadronic final states at the CDF II detector is possible due to the presence of a trigger that selects events based on track impact parameters. However, the nature of the selection requirements of the trigger introduces a large bias in the observed proper decay time distribution. A lifetime measurement must correct for this bias and the conventional approach has been to use a Monte Carlo simulation. The leading sources of systematic uncertainty in the conventional approach are due to differences between the data and the Monte Carlo simulation. Inmore » this paper they present an analytic method for bias correction without using simulation, thereby removing any uncertainty between data and simulation. This method is presented in the form of a measurement of the lifetime of the B{sup -} using the mode B{sup -} {yields} D{sup 0}{pi}{sup -}. The B{sup -} lifetime is measured as {tau}{sub B{sup -}} = 1.663 {+-} 0.023 {+-} 0.015 ps, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. This new method results in a smaller systematic uncertainty in comparison to methods that use simulation to correct for the trigger bias.« less

Experimentally induced chocolate craving leads to an attentional bias in increased distraction but not in speeded detection.

PubMed

Smeets, Elke; Roefs, Anne; Jansen, Anita

2009-12-01

In the present study, the causal influence of chocolate craving on attentional bias for chocolate-related information was examined by experimentally inducing chocolate craving in a sample of high trait chocolate cravers vs. low trait chocolate cravers. A sample of 35 high trait chocoholics and 33 low trait chocolate cravers were randomly assigned to either the exposure condition in which craving was manipulated or the non-exposure condition. To measure attentional bias, a pictorial version of the visual search paradigm [Smeets, E., Roefs, A., van Furth, E., & Jansen, A. (2008). Attentional bias for body and food in eating disorders: increased distraction, speeded detection, or both? Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 229-238] was used, assessing two components: distraction and detection. It was found that experimentally induced chocolate craving led to increased distraction by chocolate pictures in the high trait chocolate cravers, in comparison to the low trait chocolate cravers. Moreover, this measure of distraction correlated strongly with self-reported craving, but only in the chocoholics and in the exposure condition. In the non-exposure condition, high trait chocolate cravers showed speeded detection of chocolate pictures relative to non-chocoholics, but this component did not correlate with self-reported craving. It is concluded that experimentally induced craving for chocolate causes a bias in, specifically the increased distraction component of attention in high trait chocolate cravers.

Spectral distinctions between the leading and trailing hemispheres of Callisto - New observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calvin, Wendy M.; Clark, Roger N.

1993-01-01

Recent spectral observations of both the leading and trailing hemispheres of Callisto confirm the conclusions of Calvin and Clark (1991) that the water ice is typically large-grained, and the general spectral trend from 3 to 43 microns is caused by an adsorbed water band associated with hydrous minerals. On the leading hemisphere, a broad absorption near 3.4 microns was definitively identified and interpreted as being caused by fine-grained water ice. This band, coupled with the slope in the region from 2 to 2.5 microns, is indicative of a small amount, on the order of 1 to 2 percent, of fine-grained ice on the leading side. It is suggested that in the longer wavelength spectral region on the leading hemisphere an additional band correlated with NH4-bearing clays may be indicated.

Free energy calculations: an efficient adaptive biasing potential method.

PubMed

Dickson, Bradley M; Legoll, Frédéric; Lelièvre, Tony; Stoltz, Gabriel; Fleurat-Lessard, Paul

2010-05-06

We develop an efficient sampling and free energy calculation technique within the adaptive biasing potential (ABP) framework. By mollifying the density of states we obtain an approximate free energy and an adaptive bias potential that is computed directly from the population along the coordinates of the free energy. Because of the mollifier, the bias potential is "nonlocal", and its gradient admits a simple analytic expression. A single observation of the reaction coordinate can thus be used to update the approximate free energy at every point within a neighborhood of the observation. This greatly reduces the equilibration time of the adaptive bias potential. This approximation introduces two parameters: strength of mollification and the zero of energy of the bias potential. While we observe that the approximate free energy is a very good estimate of the actual free energy for a large range of mollification strength, we demonstrate that the errors associated with the mollification may be removed via deconvolution. The zero of energy of the bias potential, which is easy to choose, influences the speed of convergence but not the limiting accuracy. This method is simple to apply to free energy or mean force computation in multiple dimensions and does not involve second derivatives of the reaction coordinates, matrix manipulations nor on-the-fly adaptation of parameters. For the alanine dipeptide test case, the new method is found to gain as much as a factor of 10 in efficiency as compared to two basic implementations of the adaptive biasing force methods, and it is shown to be as efficient as well-tempered metadynamics with the postprocess deconvolution giving a clear advantage to the mollified density of states method.

The effect of radio-frequency self bias on ion acceleration in expanding argon plasmas in helicon sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebold, Matthew D.

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to ˜ 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (pn < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon Experiment. The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration exceeding Ei ≈ 7 kTe in some cases. Up to 1 kW of 13.56 MHz RF power is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field up to 1 kG. An RPA measures the IEDF and an emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in electron density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (Vp--p ≳ 140 V, Vp--p/Vp ≈ 150%) exist at the RF frequency, leading to formation of a self-bias voltage. The mobile electrons can flow from the upstream region during an RF cycle whereas ions cannot, leading to an initial imbalance of flux, and the self-bias voltage builds as a result. The plasma potential in the expansion chamber is held near the floating potential for argon (Vp ≈ 5kTe/e). In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation. The accelerated population decay is consistent with that predicted by charge-exchange collisions. Grounding the upstream endplate increases the self-bias voltage compared to a floating endplate. In the inductive and helicon modes, the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation, a result of decreased capacitive coupling due to the decreased RF skin depth. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate, magnetic field and RF power are investigated, with the highest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees well with that predicted for RF sheaths. Use of the self-bias effect in a

Investigating bias in squared regression structure coefficients

PubMed Central

Nimon, Kim F.; Zientek, Linda R.; Thompson, Bruce

2015-01-01

The importance of structure coefficients and analogs of regression weights for analysis within the general linear model (GLM) has been well-documented. The purpose of this study was to investigate bias in squared structure coefficients in the context of multiple regression and to determine if a formula that had been shown to correct for bias in squared Pearson correlation coefficients and coefficients of determination could be used to correct for bias in squared regression structure coefficients. Using data from a Monte Carlo simulation, this study found that squared regression structure coefficients corrected with Pratt's formula produced less biased estimates and might be more accurate and stable estimates of population squared regression structure coefficients than estimates with no such corrections. While our findings are in line with prior literature that identified multicollinearity as a predictor of bias in squared regression structure coefficients but not coefficients of determination, the findings from this study are unique in that the level of predictive power, number of predictors, and sample size were also observed to contribute bias in squared regression structure coefficients. PMID:26217273

The analysis of blood lead levels changeability over the 5-year observation in workers occupationally exposed to lead.

PubMed

Dobrakowski, Michał; Boroń, Marta; Kasperczyk, Sławomir; Kozłowska, Agnieszka; Kasperczyk, Aleksandra; Płachetka, Anna; Pawlas, Natalia

2017-06-01

The aim of the present study was to compare a group of workers with stable lead levels with a group of workers with fluctuating lead levels in terms of selected hematological, biochemical, and immunological parameters. The examined group included male workers occupationally exposed to lead. Blood lead (PbB) levels were measured every 3 months during the 5-year observation. Based on standard deviation of mean PbB levels, the examined population was divided into two groups: low level of fluctuation (L-SD) and high level of fluctuation (H-SD) groups. The mean and maximal PbB levels were significantly higher in the H-SD group than in the L-SD group by 9 and 22%, respectively. At the same time, the maximal level of zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) and standard deviation of mean ZPP level were higher in the H-SD group by 29 and 55%, respectively. The maximal level of hemoglobin and white blood cell (WBC) count as well as standard deviation of the mean hemoglobin level and WBC count were higher in the H-SD group by 2, 8, 58, and 24%, respectively. The expression of nuclear factor kappa-B1 gene and telomerase reverse transcriptase gene was significantly greater in the H-SD group than in the L-SD group by 11 and 28%, respectively. Workers occupationally exposed to lead do not represent a homogenous population. Some present stable lead levels, whereas others have fluctuating lead levels. These fluctuations are related to secondary changes in ZPP and hemoglobin levels as well as WBC count.

Reducing the Impact of Sampling Bias in NASA MODIS and VIIRS Level 3 Satellite Derived IR SST Observations over the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minnett, P. J.; Liu, Y.; Kilpatrick, K. A.

2016-12-01

Sea-surface temperature (SST) measurements by satellites in the northern hemisphere high latitudes confront several difficulties. Year-round prevalent clouds, effects near ice edges, and the relative small difference between SST and low-level cloud temperatures lead to a significant loss of infrared observations regardless of the more frequent polar satellite overpasses. Recent research (Liu and Minnett, 2016) identified sampling issues in the Level 3 NASA MODIS SST products when 4km observations are aggregated into global grids at different time and space scales, particularly in the Arctic, where a binary decision cloud mask designed for global data is often overly conservative at high latitudes and results in many gaps and missing data. This under sampling of some Arctic regions results in a warm bias in Level 3 products, likely a result of warmer surface temperature, more distant from the ice edge, being identified more frequently as cloud free. Here we present an improved method for cloud detection in the Arctic using a majority vote from an ensemble of four classifiers trained based on an Alternative Decision Tree (ADT) algorithm (Freund and Mason 1999, Pfahringer et. al. 2001). This new cloud classifier increases sampling of clear pixel by 50% in several regions and generally produces cooler monthly average SST fields in the ice-free Arctic, while still retaining the same error characteristics at 1km resolution relative to in situ observations. SST time series of 12 years of MODIS (Aqua and Terra) and more recently VIIRS sensors are compared and the improvements in errors and uncertainties resulting from better cloud screening for Level 3 gridded products are assessed and summarized.

Mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias.

PubMed

Russo, Riccardo; Whittuck, Dora; Roberson, Debi; Dutton, Kevin; Georgiou, George; Fox, Elaine

2006-05-01

The status of mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals was evaluated following incidental encoding of target words. Individuals with high and low levels of trait anxiety completed a modified Stroop task, which revealed an attentional bias for threat-related stimuli in anxious individuals. This group was significantly slower in naming the colour in which threat-related words were displayed compared to neutral words. In a subsequent free recall test for the words used in the modified Stroop task, anxious individuals recalled more threat-related words compared to low-anxious people. This difference was significant even when controlling for the false recall of items that had not been presented during study. These results support the view put forward by Russo, Fox, Bellinger, and Nguyen-Van-Tam (2001) that mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals can be observed if the target material is encoded at a relatively shallow level. Moreover, contrary to Dowens and Calvo (2003), the current results show that the memory advantage for threat-related information in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias.

Mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias

PubMed Central

Russo, Riccardo; Whittuck, Dora; Roberson, Debi; Dutton, Kevin; Georgiou, George; Fox, Elaine

2007-01-01

The status of mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals was evaluated following incidental encoding of target words. Individuals with high and low levels of trait anxiety completed a modified Stroop task, which revealed an attentional bias for threat-related stimuli in anxious individuals. This group was significantly slower in naming the colour in which threat-related words were displayed compared to neutral words. In a subsequent free recall test for the words used in the modified Stroop task, anxious individuals recalled more threat-related words compared to low-anxious people. This difference was significant even when controlling for the false recall of items that had not been presented during study. These results support the view put forward by Russo, Fox, Bellinger, and Nguyen-Van-Tam (2001) that mood-congruent free recall bias in anxious individuals can be observed if the target material is encoded at a relatively shallow level. Moreover, contrary to Dowens and Calvo (2003), the current results show that the memory advantage for threat-related information in anxious individuals is not a consequence of response bias. PMID:16766443

Tunable reverse-biased graphene/silicon heterojunction Schottky diode sensor.

PubMed

Singh, Amol; Uddin, Ahsan; Sudarshan, Tangali; Koley, Goutam

2014-04-24

A new chemical sensor based on reverse-biased graphene/Si heterojunction diode has been developed that exhibits extremely high bias-dependent molecular detection sensitivity and low operating power. The device takes advantage of graphene's atomically thin nature, which enables molecular adsorption on its surface to directly alter graphene/Si interface barrier height, thus affecting the junction current exponentially when operated in reverse bias and resulting in ultrahigh sensitivity. By operating the device in reverse bias, the work function of graphene, and hence the barrier height at the graphene/Si heterointerface, can be controlled by the bias magnitude, leading to a wide tunability of the molecular detection sensitivity. Such sensitivity control is also possible by carefully selecting the graphene/Si heterojunction Schottky barrier height. Compared to a conventional graphene amperometric sensor fabricated on the same chip, the proposed sensor demonstrated 13 times higher sensitivity for NO₂ and 3 times higher for NH₃ in ambient conditions, while consuming ∼500 times less power for same magnitude of applied voltage bias. The sensing mechanism based on heterojunction Schottky barrier height change has been confirmed using capacitance-voltage measurements. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Attention bias and anxiety in young children exposed to family violence.

PubMed

Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J; Pollak, Seth D; Grasso, Damión; Voss, Joel; Mian, Nicholas D; Zobel, Elvira; McCarthy, Kimberly J; Wakschlag, Lauren S; Pine, Daniel S

2015-11-01

Attention bias toward threat is associated with anxiety in older youth and adults and has been linked with violence exposure. Attention bias may moderate the relationship between violence exposure and anxiety in young children. Capitalizing on measurement advances, this study examines these relationships at a younger age than previously possible. Young children (mean age 4.7, ±0.8) from a cross-sectional sample oversampled for violence exposure (N = 218) completed the dot-probe task to assess their attention biases. Observed fear/anxiety was characterized with a novel observational paradigm, the Anxiety Dimensional Observation Scale. Mother-reported symptoms were assessed with the Preschool Age Psychiatric Assessment and Trauma Symptom Checklist for Young Children. Violence exposure was characterized with dimensional scores reflecting probability of membership in two classes derived via latent class analysis from the Conflict Tactics Scales: Abuse and Harsh Parenting. Family violence predicted greater child anxiety and trauma symptoms. Attention bias moderated the relationship between violence and anxiety. Attention bias toward threat may strengthen the effects of family violence on the development of anxiety, with potentially cascading effects across childhood. Such associations maybe most readily detected when using observational measures of childhood anxiety.

Biased Tests.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Donald Ross

This paper is concerned with the accusations made by such groups as the Association of Black Psychologists in their call for a moratorium on testing, that standardized tests are biased. A biased test measures one trait in one group of people but a different trait in a second group. Evidence about the amount of bias in tests is thin. Bias must be…

Economic inequality is linked to biased self-perception.

PubMed

Loughnan, Steve; Kuppens, Peter; Allik, Jüri; Balazs, Katalin; de Lemus, Soledad; Dumont, Kitty; Gargurevich, Rafael; Hidegkuti, Istvan; Leidner, Bernhard; Matos, Lennia; Park, Joonha; Realo, Anu; Shi, Junqi; Sojo, Victor Eduardo; Tong, Yuk-Yue; Vaes, Jeroen; Verduyn, Philippe; Yeung, Victoria; Haslam, Nick

2011-10-01

People's self-perception biases often lead them to see themselves as better than the average person (a phenomenon known as self-enhancement). This bias varies across cultures, and variations are typically explained using cultural variables, such as individualism versus collectivism. We propose that socioeconomic differences among societies--specifically, relative levels of economic inequality--play an important but unrecognized role in how people evaluate themselves. Evidence for self-enhancement was found in 15 diverse nations, but the magnitude of the bias varied. Greater self-enhancement was found in societies with more income inequality, and income inequality predicted cross-cultural differences in self-enhancement better than did individualism/collectivism. These results indicate that macrosocial differences in the distribution of economic goods are linked to microsocial processes of perceiving the self.

Applying quantitative bias analysis to estimate the plausible effects of selection bias in a cluster randomised controlled trial: secondary analysis of the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST).

PubMed

Barnett, L A; Lewis, M; Mallen, C D; Peat, G

2017-12-04

Selection bias is a concern when designing cluster randomised controlled trials (c-RCT). Despite addressing potential issues at the design stage, bias cannot always be eradicated from a trial design. The application of bias analysis presents an important step forward in evaluating whether trial findings are credible. The aim of this paper is to give an example of the technique to quantify potential selection bias in c-RCTs. This analysis uses data from the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST). The primary aim of this trial was to test whether screening for anxiety and depression, and providing appropriate care for patients consulting their GP with osteoarthritis would improve clinical outcomes. Quantitative bias analysis is a seldom-used technique that can quantify types of bias present in studies. Due to lack of information on the selection probability, probabilistic bias analysis with a range of triangular distributions was also used, applied at all three follow-up time points; 3, 6, and 12 months post consultation. A simple bias analysis was also applied to the study. Worse pain outcomes were observed among intervention participants than control participants (crude odds ratio at 3, 6, and 12 months: 1.30 (95% CI 1.01, 1.67), 1.39 (1.07, 1.80), and 1.17 (95% CI 0.90, 1.53), respectively). Probabilistic bias analysis suggested that the observed effect became statistically non-significant if the selection probability ratio was between 1.2 and 1.4. Selection probability ratios of > 1.8 were needed to mask a statistically significant benefit of the intervention. The use of probabilistic bias analysis in this c-RCT suggested that worse outcomes observed in the intervention arm could plausibly be attributed to selection bias. A very large degree of selection of bias was needed to mask a beneficial effect of intervention making this interpretation less plausible.

Smoothed Biasing Forces Yield Unbiased Free Energies with the Extended-System Adaptive Biasing Force Method

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We report a theoretical description and numerical tests of the extended-system adaptive biasing force method (eABF), together with an unbiased estimator of the free energy surface from eABF dynamics. Whereas the original ABF approach uses its running estimate of the free energy gradient as the adaptive biasing force, eABF is built on the idea that the exact free energy gradient is not necessary for efficient exploration, and that it is still possible to recover the exact free energy separately with an appropriate estimator. eABF does not directly bias the collective coordinates of interest, but rather fictitious variables that are harmonically coupled to them; therefore is does not require second derivative estimates, making it easily applicable to a wider range of problems than ABF. Furthermore, the extended variables present a smoother, coarse-grain-like sampling problem on a mollified free energy surface, leading to faster exploration and convergence. We also introduce CZAR, a simple, unbiased free energy estimator from eABF trajectories. eABF/CZAR converges to the physical free energy surface faster than standard ABF for a wide range of parameters. PMID:27959559

Are most samples of animals systematically biased? Consistent individual trait differences bias samples despite random sampling.

PubMed

Biro, Peter A

2013-02-01

Sampling animals from the wild for study is something nearly every biologist has done, but despite our best efforts to obtain random samples of animals, 'hidden' trait biases may still exist. For example, consistent behavioral traits can affect trappability/catchability, independent of obvious factors such as size and gender, and these traits are often correlated with other repeatable physiological and/or life history traits. If so, systematic sampling bias may exist for any of these traits. The extent to which this is a problem, of course, depends on the magnitude of bias, which is presently unknown because the underlying trait distributions in populations are usually unknown, or unknowable. Indeed, our present knowledge about sampling bias comes from samples (not complete population censuses), which can possess bias to begin with. I had the unique opportunity to create naturalized populations of fish by seeding each of four small fishless lakes with equal densities of slow-, intermediate-, and fast-growing fish. Using sampling methods that are not size-selective, I observed that fast-growing fish were up to two-times more likely to be sampled than slower-growing fish. This indicates substantial and systematic bias with respect to an important life history trait (growth rate). If correlations between behavioral, physiological and life-history traits are as widespread as the literature suggests, then many animal samples may be systematically biased with respect to these traits (e.g., when collecting animals for laboratory use), and affect our inferences about population structure and abundance. I conclude with a discussion on ways to minimize sampling bias for particular physiological/behavioral/life-history types within animal populations.

Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury.

PubMed

Meisner, Allison; Kerr, Kathleen F; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Coca, Steven G; Parikh, Chirag R

2016-02-01

Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict AKI were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias, and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles), or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable, and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis, and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice.

Camera Perspective Bias in Videotaped Confessions: Evidence that Visual Attention Is a Mediator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ware, Lezlee J.; Lassiter, G. Daniel; Patterson, Stephen M.; Ransom, Michael R.

2008-01-01

Several experiments have demonstrated a "camera perspective bias" in evaluations of videotaped confessions: videotapes with the camera focused on the suspect lead to judgments of greater voluntariness than alternative presentation formats. The present research investigated potential mediators of this bias. Using eye tracking to measure visual…

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents in synthetic diamond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mori, R.; Miglio, S.; Bruzzi, M.; Bogani, F.; De Sio, A.; Pace, E.

2009-06-01

Zero bias thermally stimulated currents (ZBTSCs) have been observed in single crystal high pressure high temperature (HPHT) and polycrystalline chemical vapor deposited (pCVD) diamond films. The ZBTSC technique is characterized by an increased sensitivity with respect to a standard TSC analysis. Due to the absence of the thermally activated background current, new TSC peaks have been observed in both HPHT and pCVD diamond films, related to shallow activation energies usually obscured by the emission of the dominant impurities. The ZBTSC peaks are explained in terms of defect discharge in the nonequilibrium potential distribution created by a nonuniform traps filling at the metal-diamond junctions. The electric field due to the charged defects has been estimated in a quasizero bias TSC experiment by applying an external bias.

Not a Copernican observer: biased peculiar velocity statistics in the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwing, Wojciech A.; Nusser, Adi; Feix, Martin; Bilicki, Maciej

2017-05-01

We assess the effect of the local large-scale structure on the estimation of two-point statistics of the observed radial peculiar velocities of galaxies. A large N-body simulation is used to examine these statistics from the perspective of random observers as well as 'Local Group-like' observers conditioned to reside in an environment resembling the observed Universe within 20 Mpc. The local environment systematically distorts the shape and amplitude of velocity statistics with respect to ensemble-averaged measurements made by a Copernican (random) observer. The Virgo cluster has the most significant impact, introducing large systematic deviations in all the statistics. For a simple 'top-hat' selection function, an idealized survey extending to ˜160 h-1 Mpc or deeper is needed to completely mitigate the effects of the local environment. Using shallower catalogues leads to systematic deviations of the order of 50-200 per cent depending on the scale considered. For a flat redshift distribution similar to the one of the CosmicFlows-3 survey, the deviations are even more prominent in both the shape and amplitude at all separations considered (≲100 h-1 Mpc). Conclusions based on statistics calculated without taking into account the impact of the local environment should be revisited.

The association between male-biased sex ratio and indicators of stress in red-spotted newts.

PubMed

Aspbury, Andrea S; Grayson, Kristine L; Fantaye, Selamawit; Nichols, Ian; Myers-Burton, Miranda; Ortiz-Mangual, Xavier; Gabor, Caitlin R

2017-05-01

In populations with a male-biased operational sex ratio, coercive mating by males can have fitness consequences for females. One component of reduced fitness for females in populations with a male-biased OSR may be greater activation of the stress response, resulting in higher corticosterone release rates (CORT; a glucocorticoid stress hormone in amphibians). We test the hypothesis that a male-biased sex ratio affects female activity and release rates of CORT and testosterone (T) in male and female red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens). First, we evaluated if chemical cues from a male-biased sex ratio affect activity and CORT release rates in females. We predicted that females exposed to chemical cues of three males would be less active and have higher CORT release rates than those exposed to chemical cues of one male. Second, we measured CORT release rates of red-spotted newts in field enclosures with either a male-biased or a female-biased sex ratio. We predicted that females in the male-biased treatment would have higher CORT and T release rates than those in a female-biased treatment, owing to higher levels of male harassment. We also predicted that males would have higher CORT and T release rates in male-biased treatments due to higher levels of male-male competition. Females were not less active in response to chemical cues from more males over fewer males, but there was a positive relationship between female activity and CORT when they were exposed to the cues of three males. We also found that females, but not males, in the male-biased sex ratio treatment had higher CORT and T release rates than those in the female-biased treatment. Our results support the hypothesis that a male-biased sex ratio leads to a higher stress response, which may underlie the observed decrease in immune function and body condition in previous work exposing female red-spotted newts to a male-biased sex ratio. This study furthers our understanding of the mechanistic basis

Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research required to facilitate assessment within qualitative evidence syntheses.

PubMed

Toews, Ingrid; Booth, Andrew; Berg, Rigmor C; Lewin, Simon; Glenton, Claire; Munthe-Kaas, Heather M; Noyes, Jane; Schroter, Sara; Meerpohl, Joerg J

2017-08-01

To conceptualise and discuss dissemination bias in qualitative research. It is likely that the mechanisms leading to dissemination bias in quantitative research, including time lag, language, gray literature, and truncation bias also contribute to dissemination bias in qualitative research. These conceptual considerations have informed the development of a research agenda. Further exploration of dissemination bias in qualitative research is needed, including the extent of non-dissemination and related dissemination bias, and how to assess dissemination bias within qualitative evidence syntheses. We also need to consider the mechanisms through which dissemination bias in qualitative research could occur to explore approaches for reducing it. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Giant perpendicular exchange bias with antiferromagnetic MnN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zilske, P.; Graulich, D.; Dunz, M.; Meinert, M.

2017-05-01

We investigated an out-of-plane exchange bias system that is based on the antiferromagnet MnN. Polycrystalline, highly textured film stacks of Ta/MnN/CoFeB/MgO/Ta were grown on SiOx by (reactive) magnetron sputtering and studied by x-ray diffraction and Kerr magnetometry. Nontrivial modifications of the exchange bias and the perpendicular magnetic anisotropy were observed as functions of both film thicknesses and field cooling temperatures. In optimized film stacks, a giant perpendicular exchange bias of 3600 Oe and a coercive field of 350 Oe were observed at room temperature. The effective interfacial exchange energy is estimated to be Jeff = 0.24 mJ/m2 and the effective uniaxial anisotropy constant of the antiferromagnet is Keff = 24 kJ/m3. The maximum effective perpendicular anisotropy field of the CoFeB layer is Hani = 3400 Oe. These values are larger than any previously reported values. These results possibly open a route to magnetically stable, exchange biased perpendicularly magnetized spin valves.

Location and color biases have different influences on selective attention.

PubMed

Fecteau, Jillian H; Korjoukov, Ilia; Roelfsema, Pieter R

2009-05-01

Are locations or colors more effective cues in biasing attention? We addressed this question with a visual search task that featured an associative priming manipulation. The observers indicated which target appeared in a search array. Unknown to them, one target appeared at the same location more often and a second target appeared in the same color more often. Both location and color biases facilitated performance, but location biases benefited the selection of all targets, whereas color biases only benefited the associated target letter. The generalized benefit of location biases suggests that locations are more effective cues to attention.

Information bias in health research: definition, pitfalls, and adjustment methods

PubMed Central

Althubaiti, Alaa

2016-01-01

As with other fields, medical sciences are subject to different sources of bias. While understanding sources of bias is a key element for drawing valid conclusions, bias in health research continues to be a very sensitive issue that can affect the focus and outcome of investigations. Information bias, otherwise known as misclassification, is one of the most common sources of bias that affects the validity of health research. It originates from the approach that is utilized to obtain or confirm study measurements. This paper seeks to raise awareness of information bias in observational and experimental research study designs as well as to enrich discussions concerning bias problems. Specifying the types of bias can be essential to limit its effects and, the use of adjustment methods might serve to improve clinical evaluation and health care practice. PMID:27217764

A review of current evidence for the causal impact of attentional bias on fear and anxiety.

PubMed

Van Bockstaele, Bram; Verschuere, Bruno; Tibboel, Helen; De Houwer, Jan; Crombez, Geert; Koster, Ernst H W

2014-05-01

Prominent cognitive theories postulate that an attentional bias toward threatening information contributes to the etiology, maintenance, or exacerbation of fear and anxiety. In this review, we investigate to what extent these causal claims are supported by sound empirical evidence. Although differences in attentional bias are associated with differences in fear and anxiety, this association does not emerge consistently. Moreover, there is only limited evidence that individual differences in attentional bias are related to individual differences in fear or anxiety. In line with a causal relation, some studies show that attentional bias precedes fear or anxiety in time. However, other studies show that fear and anxiety can precede the onset of attentional bias, suggesting circular or reciprocal causality. Importantly, a recent line of experimental research shows that changes in attentional bias can lead to changes in anxiety. Yet changes in fear and anxiety also lead to changes in attentional bias, which confirms that the relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is unlikely to be unidirectional. Finally, a similar causal relation between interpretation bias and anxiety has been documented. In sum, there is evidence in favor of causality, yet a strict unidirectional cause-effect model is unlikely to hold. The relation between attentional bias and fear and anxiety is best described as a bidirectional, maintaining, or mutually reinforcing relation.

Dependence of Halo Bias and Kinematics on Assembly Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiaoju; Zheng, Zheng

2018-06-01

Using dark matter haloes identified in a large N-body simulation, we study halo assembly bias, with halo formation time, peak maximum circular velocity, concentration, and spin as the assembly variables. Instead of grouping haloes at fixed mass into different percentiles of each assembly variable, we present the joint dependence of halo bias on the values of halo mass and each assembly variable. In the plane of halo mass and one assembly variable, the joint dependence can be largely described as halo bias increasing outward from a global minimum. We find it unlikely to have a combination of halo variables to absorb all assembly bias effects. We then present the joint dependence of halo bias on two assembly variables at fixed halo mass. The gradient of halo bias does not necessarily follow the correlation direction of the two assembly variables and it varies with halo mass. Therefore in general for two correlated assembly variables one cannot be used as a proxy for the other in predicting halo assembly bias trend. Finally, halo assembly is found to affect the kinematics of haloes. Low-mass haloes formed earlier can have much higher pairwise velocity dispersion than those of massive haloes. In general, halo assembly leads to a correlation between halo bias and halo pairwise velocity distribution, with more strongly clustered haloes having higher pairwise velocity and velocity dispersion. However, the correlation is not tight, and the kinematics of haloes at fixed halo bias still depends on halo mass and assembly variables.

Developmental bias in cleavage-stage mouse blastomeres

PubMed Central

Tabansky, Inna; Lenarcic, Alan; Draft, Ryan W.; Loulier, Karine; Keskin, Derin B; Rosains, Jacqueline; Rivera-Feliciano, José; Lichtman, Jeff W.; Livet, Jean; Stern, Joel NH; Sanes, Joshua R.; Eggan, Kevin

2012-01-01

Summary Introduction The cleavage stage mouse embryo is composed of superficially equivalent blastomeres that will generate both the embryonic inner cell mass (ICM) and the supportive trophectoderm (TE). However, it remains unsettled whether the contribution of each blastomere to these two lineages can be accounted for by chance. Addressing the question of blastomere cell fate may be of practical importance, as preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) requires removal of blastomeres from the early human embryo. To determine if blastomere allocation to the two earliest lineages is random, we developed and utilized a recombination-mediated, non-invasive combinatorial fluorescent labeling method for embryonic lineage tracing. Results When we induced recombination at cleavage stages, we observed a statistically significant bias in the contribution of the resulting labeled clones to the trophectoderm or the inner cell mass in a subset of embryos. Surprisingly, we did not find a correlation between localization of clones in the embryonic and abembryonic hemispheres of the late blastocyst and their allocation to the TE and ICM, suggesting that TE-ICM bias arises separately from embryonic-abembryonic bias. Rainbow lineage tracing also allowed us to demonstrate that the bias observed in the blastocyst persists into post-implantation stages, and therefore has relevance for subsequent development. Discussion The Rainbow transgenic mice that we describe here have allowed us to detect lineage-dependent bias in early development. They should also enable assessment of the developmental equivalence of mammalian progenitor cells in a variety of tissues. PMID:23177476

Spectral Resolution-linked Bias in Transit Spectroscopy of Extrasolar Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deming, Drake; Sheppard, Kyle

2017-05-01

We re-visit the principles of transmission spectroscopy for transiting extrasolar planets, focusing on the overlap between the planetary spectrum and the illuminating stellar spectrum. Virtually all current models of exoplanetary transmission spectra utilize an approximation that is inaccurate when the spectrum of the illuminating star has a complex line structure, such as molecular bands in M-dwarf spectra. In those cases, it is desirable to model the observations using a coupled stellar-planetary radiative transfer model calculated at high spectral resolving power, followed by convolution to the observed resolution. Not consistently accounting for overlap of stellar M-dwarf and planetary lines at high spectral resolution can bias the modeled amplitude of the exoplanetary transmission spectrum, producing modeled absorption that is too strong. We illustrate this bias using the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1b, as observed using Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3. The bias in this case is about 250 ppm, 12% of the modeled transit absorption. Transit spectroscopy using JWST will have access to longer wavelengths where the water bands are intrinsically stronger, and the observed signal-to-noise ratios will be higher than currently possible. We therefore expect that this resolution-linked bias will be especially important for future JWST observations of TESS-discovered super-Earths and mini-Neptunes transiting M-dwarfs.

Standardized mean differences cause funnel plot distortion in publication bias assessments.

PubMed

Zwetsloot, Peter-Paul; Van Der Naald, Mira; Sena, Emily S; Howells, David W; IntHout, Joanna; De Groot, Joris Ah; Chamuleau, Steven Aj; MacLeod, Malcolm R; Wever, Kimberley E

2017-09-08

Meta-analyses are increasingly used for synthesis of evidence from biomedical research, and often include an assessment of publication bias based on visual or analytical detection of asymmetry in funnel plots. We studied the influence of different normalisation approaches, sample size and intervention effects on funnel plot asymmetry, using empirical datasets and illustrative simulations. We found that funnel plots of the Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) plotted against the standard error (SE) are susceptible to distortion, leading to overestimation of the existence and extent of publication bias. Distortion was more severe when the primary studies had a small sample size and when an intervention effect was present. We show that using the Normalised Mean Difference measure as effect size (when possible), or plotting the SMD against a sample size-based precision estimate, are more reliable alternatives. We conclude that funnel plots using the SMD in combination with the SE are unsuitable for publication bias assessments and can lead to false-positive results.

Standardized mean differences cause funnel plot distortion in publication bias assessments

PubMed Central

Van Der Naald, Mira; Sena, Emily S; Howells, David W; IntHout, Joanna; De Groot, Joris AH; Chamuleau, Steven AJ; MacLeod, Malcolm R

2017-01-01

Meta-analyses are increasingly used for synthesis of evidence from biomedical research, and often include an assessment of publication bias based on visual or analytical detection of asymmetry in funnel plots. We studied the influence of different normalisation approaches, sample size and intervention effects on funnel plot asymmetry, using empirical datasets and illustrative simulations. We found that funnel plots of the Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) plotted against the standard error (SE) are susceptible to distortion, leading to overestimation of the existence and extent of publication bias. Distortion was more severe when the primary studies had a small sample size and when an intervention effect was present. We show that using the Normalised Mean Difference measure as effect size (when possible), or plotting the SMD against a sample size-based precision estimate, are more reliable alternatives. We conclude that funnel plots using the SMD in combination with the SE are unsuitable for publication bias assessments and can lead to false-positive results. PMID:28884685

Attention bias and anxiety in young children exposed to family violence

PubMed Central

Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Pollak, Seth D.; Grasso, Damion; Voss, Joel; Mian, Nicholas D.; Zobel, Elvira; McCarthy, Kimberly J.; Wakschlag, Lauren S.; Pine, Daniel S.

2015-01-01

Background Attention bias towards threat is associated with anxiety in older youth and adults and has been linked with violence exposure. Attention bias may moderate the relationship between violence exposure and anxiety in young children. Capitalizing on measurement advances, the current study examines these relationships at a younger age than previously possible. Methods Young children (mean age 4.7, ±0.8) from a cross-sectional sample oversampled for violence exposure (N = 218) completed the dot-probe task to assess their attention biases. Observed fear/anxiety was characterized with a novel observational paradigm, the Anxiety Diagnostic Observation Schedule. Mother-reported symptoms were assessed with the Preschool-Age Psychiatric Assessment and Trauma Symptom Checklist for Young Children. Violence exposure was characterized with dimensional scores reflecting probability of membership in two classes derived via latent class analysis from the Conflict Tactics Scales: Abuse and Harsh Parenting. Results Family violence predicted greater child anxiety and trauma symptoms. Attention bias moderated the relationship between violence and anxiety. Conclusions Attention bias towards threat may strengthen the effects of family violence on the development of anxiety, with potentially cascading effects across childhood. Such associations may be most readily detected when using observational measures of childhood anxiety. PMID:26716142

Ion acceleration in a helicon source due to the self-bias effect

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiebold, Matt; Sung, Yung-Ta; Scharer, John E.

2012-05-15

Time-averaged plasma potential differences up to 165 V over several hundred Debye lengths are observed in low pressure (p{sub n} < 1 mTorr) expanding argon plasmas in the Madison Helicon eXperiment (MadHeX). The potential gradient leads to ion acceleration greater than that predicted by ambipolar expansion, exceeding E{sub i} Almost-Equal-To 7 kT{sub e} in some cases. RF power up to 500 W at 13.56 MHz is supplied to a half-turn, double-helix antenna in the presence of a nozzle magnetic field, adjustable up to 1 kG. A retarding potential analyzer (RPA) measures the ion energy distribution function (IEDF) and a sweptmore » emissive probe measures the plasma potential. Single and double probes measure the electron density and temperature. Two distinct mode hops, the capacitive-inductive (E-H) and inductive-helicon (H-W) transitions, are identified by jumps in density as RF power is increased. In the capacitive (E) mode, large fluctuations of the plasma potential (V{sub p-p} Greater-Than-Or-Equivalent-To 140V, V{sub p-p}/V{sub p} Almost-Equal-To 150%) exist at the RF frequency and its harmonics. The more mobile electrons can easily respond to RF-timescale gradients in the plasma potential whereas the inertially constrained ions cannot, leading to an initial flux imbalance and formation of a self-bias voltage between the source and expansion chambers. In the capacitive mode, the ion acceleration is not well described by an ambipolar relation, while in the inductive and helicon modes the ion acceleration more closely follows an ambipolar relation. The scaling of the potential gradient with the argon flow rate and RF power are investigated, with the largest potential gradients observed for the lowest flow rates in the capacitive mode. The magnitude of the self-bias voltage agrees with that predicted for RF self-bias at a wall. Rapid fluctuations in the plasma potential result in a time-dependent axial electron flux that acts to 'neutralize' the accelerated ion

Sympathetic bias.

PubMed

Levy, David M; Peart, Sandra J

2008-06-01

We wish to deal with investigator bias in a statistical context. We sketch how a textbook solution to the problem of "outliers" which avoids one sort of investigator bias, creates the temptation for another sort. We write down a model of the approbation seeking statistician who is tempted by sympathy for client to violate the disciplinary standards. We give a simple account of one context in which we might expect investigator bias to flourish. Finally, we offer tentative suggestions to deal with the problem of investigator bias which follow from our account. As we have given a very sparse and stylized account of investigator bias, we ask what might be done to overcome this limitation.

Cognitive-Processing Bias in Chinese Student Teachers with Strong and Weak Professional Identity.

PubMed

Wang, Xin-Qiang; Zhu, Jun-Cheng; Liu, Lu; Chen, Xiang-Yu

2017-01-01

Professional identity plays an important role in career development. Although many studies have examined professional identity, differences in cognitive-processing biases between Chinese student teachers with strong and weak professional identity are poorly understood. The current study adopted Tversky's social-cognitive experimental paradigm to explore cognitive-processing biases in Chinese student teachers with strong and weak professional identity. Experiment 1 showed that participants with strong professional identity exhibited stronger positive-coding bias toward positive profession-related life events, relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity. Experiment 2 showed that participants with strong professional identity exhibited greater recognition bias for previously read items, relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity. Overall, the results suggested that participants with strong professional identity exhibited greater positive cognitive-processing bias relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity.

Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

PubMed

Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2016-01-01

Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Controllable exchange bias in Fe/metamagnetic FeRh bilayers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suzuki, Ippei; Hamasaki, Yosuke; Itoh, Mitsuru

2014-10-27

We report the studies of tuning the exchange bias at ferromagnetic Fe/metamagnetic FeRh bilayer interfaces. Fe/FeRh(111) bilayers show exchange bias in the antiferromagnetic state of FeRh while no exchange bias occurs at Fe/FeRh(001) interface. The contrasting results are attributed to the spin configurations of FeRh at the interface, i.e., the uncompensated ferromagnetic spin configuration of FeRh appears exclusively for (111) orientation. The exchange bias disappears as the bilayers are warmed above the antiferromagnetic-ferromagnetic transition temperature. The direction of the exchange bias for Fe/FeRh(111) is also found to be perpendicular to the cooling-field direction, in contrast to the commonly observed directionmore » of exchange bias for ferromagnetic/antiferromagnetic interfaces. In view of these results, the exchange bias in Fe/FeRh bilayers with the (111) crystallographic orientation should be useful for the design of rapid writing technology for magnetic information devices.« less

Observation of giant exchange bias in bulk Mn50Ni42Sn8 Heusler alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jyoti; Suresh, K. G.

2015-02-01

We report a giant exchange bias (EB) field of 3520 Oe in bulk Mn50Ni42Sn8 Heusler alloy. The low temperature magnetic state of the martensite phase has been studied by DC magnetization and AC susceptibility measurements. Frequency dependence of spin freezing temperature (Tf) on critical slowing down relation and observation of memory effect in zero field cooling mode confirms the super spin glass (SSG) phase at low temperatures. Large EB is attributed to the strong exchange coupling between the SSG clusters formed by small regions of ferromagnetic order embedded in an antiferromagnetic (AFM) matrix. The temperature and cooling field dependence of EB have been studied and related to the change in unidirectional anisotropy at SSG/AFM interface. The training effect also corroborates with the presence of frozen (SSG) moments at the interface and their role in EB.

Model for Codon Position Bias in RNA Editing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tsunglin; Bundschuh, Ralf

2005-08-01

RNA editing can be crucial for the expression of genetic information via inserting, deleting, or substituting a few nucleotides at specific positions in an RNA sequence. Within coding regions in an RNA sequence, editing usually occurs with a certain bias in choosing the positions of the editing sites. In the mitochondrial genes of Physarum polycephalum, many more editing events have been observed at the third codon position than at the first and second, while in some plant mitochondria the second codon position dominates. Here we propose an evolutionary model that explains this bias as the basis of selection at the protein level. The model predicts a distribution of the three positions rather close to the experimental observation in Physarum. This suggests that the codon position bias in Physarum is mainly a consequence of selection at the protein level.

Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

PubMed Central

Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Habib, Emad; Verhoef, Wouter

2016-01-01

With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite rainfall product (CMORPH) in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003–2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW) sizes and for sequential windows (SW’s) of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW) schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r) and standard deviation (SD). Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach. PMID:27314363

Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data.

PubMed

Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Habib, Emad; Verhoef, Wouter

2016-06-15

With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite rainfall product (CMORPH) in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003-2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW) sizes and for sequential windows (SW's) of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW) schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r) and standard deviation (SD). Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach.

Attention Bias Modification for Major Depressive Disorder: Effects on Attention Bias, Resting State Connectivity, and Symptom Change

PubMed Central

Beevers, Christopher G.; Clasen, Peter C.; Enock, Philip M.; Schnyer, David M.

2015-01-01

Cognitive theories of depression posit that selective attention for negative information contributes to the maintenance of depression. The current study experimentally tested this idea by randomly assigning adults with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) to four weeks of computer-based attention bias modification designed to reduce negative attention bias or four weeks of placebo attention training. Findings indicate that compared to placebo training, attention bias modification reduced negative attention bias and increased resting-state connectivity within a neural circuit (i.e., middle frontal gyrus and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex) that supports control over emotional information. Further, pre- to post-training change in negative attention bias was significantly correlated with depression symptom change only in the active training condition. Exploratory analyses indicated that pre- to post-training changes in resting state connectivity within a circuit associated with sustained attention to visual information (i.e., precuenus and middle frontal gyrus) contributed to symptom improvement in the placebo condition. Importantly, depression symptoms did not change differentially between the training groups—overall, a 40% decrease in symptoms was observed across attention training conditions. Findings suggest that negative attention bias is associated with the maintenance of depression; however, general attentional control may also maintain depression symptoms, as evidenced by resting state connectivity and depression symptom improvement in the placebo training condition. PMID:25894440

Racial bias in neural empathic responses to pain.

PubMed

Contreras-Huerta, Luis Sebastian; Baker, Katharine S; Reynolds, Katherine J; Batalha, Luisa; Cunnington, Ross

2013-01-01

Recent studies have shown that perceiving the pain of others activates brain regions in the observer associated with both somatosensory and affective-motivational aspects of pain, principally involving regions of the anterior cingulate and anterior insula cortex. The degree of these empathic neural responses is modulated by racial bias, such that stronger neural activation is elicited by observing pain in people of the same racial group compared with people of another racial group. The aim of the present study was to examine whether a more general social group category, other than race, could similarly modulate neural empathic responses and perhaps account for the apparent racial bias reported in previous studies. Using a minimal group paradigm, we assigned participants to one of two mixed-race teams. We use the term race to refer to the Chinese or Caucasian appearance of faces and whether the ethnic group represented was the same or different from the appearance of the participant' own face. Using fMRI, we measured neural empathic responses as participants observed members of their own group or other group, and members of their own race or other race, receiving either painful or non-painful touch. Participants showed clear group biases, with no significant effect of race, on behavioral measures of implicit (affective priming) and explicit group identification. Neural responses to observed pain in the anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and somatosensory areas showed significantly greater activation when observing pain in own-race compared with other-race individuals, with no significant effect of minimal groups. These results suggest that racial bias in neural empathic responses is not influenced by minimal forms of group categorization, despite the clear association participants showed with in-group more than out-group members. We suggest that race may be an automatic and unconscious mechanism that drives the initial neural responses to observed pain in

Racial Bias in Neural Empathic Responses to Pain

PubMed Central

Contreras-Huerta, Luis Sebastian; Baker, Katharine S.; Reynolds, Katherine J.; Batalha, Luisa; Cunnington, Ross

2013-01-01

Recent studies have shown that perceiving the pain of others activates brain regions in the observer associated with both somatosensory and affective-motivational aspects of pain, principally involving regions of the anterior cingulate and anterior insula cortex. The degree of these empathic neural responses is modulated by racial bias, such that stronger neural activation is elicited by observing pain in people of the same racial group compared with people of another racial group. The aim of the present study was to examine whether a more general social group category, other than race, could similarly modulate neural empathic responses and perhaps account for the apparent racial bias reported in previous studies. Using a minimal group paradigm, we assigned participants to one of two mixed-race teams. We use the term race to refer to the Chinese or Caucasian appearance of faces and whether the ethnic group represented was the same or different from the appearance of the participant' own face. Using fMRI, we measured neural empathic responses as participants observed members of their own group or other group, and members of their own race or other race, receiving either painful or non-painful touch. Participants showed clear group biases, with no significant effect of race, on behavioral measures of implicit (affective priming) and explicit group identification. Neural responses to observed pain in the anterior cingulate cortex, insula cortex, and somatosensory areas showed significantly greater activation when observing pain in own-race compared with other-race individuals, with no significant effect of minimal groups. These results suggest that racial bias in neural empathic responses is not influenced by minimal forms of group categorization, despite the clear association participants showed with in-group more than out-group members. We suggest that race may be an automatic and unconscious mechanism that drives the initial neural responses to observed pain in

The Effects of Oncologist Implicit Racial Bias in Racially Discordant Oncology Interactions

PubMed Central

Dovidio, John F.; Gonzalez, Richard; Albrecht, Terrance L.; Chapman, Robert; Foster, Tanina; Harper, Felicity W.K.; Hagiwara, Nao; Hamel, Lauren M.; Shields, Anthony F.; Gadgeel, Shirish; Simon, Michael S.; Griggs, Jennifer J.; Eggly, Susan

2016-01-01

Purpose Health providers’ implicit racial bias negatively affects communication and patient reactions to many medical interactions. However, its effects on racially discordant oncology interactions are largely unknown. Thus, we examined whether oncologist implicit racial bias has similar effects in oncology interactions. We further investigated whether oncologist implicit bias negatively affects patients’ perceptions of recommended treatments (i.e., degree of confidence, expected difficulty). We predicted oncologist implicit bias would negatively affect communication, patient reactions to interactions, and, indirectly, patient perceptions of recommended treatments. Methods Participants were 18 non-black medical oncologists and 112 black patients. Oncologists completed an implicit racial bias measure several weeks before video-recorded treatment discussions with new patients. Observers rated oncologist communication and recorded interaction length of time and amount of time oncologists and patients spoke. Following interactions, patients answered questions about oncologists’ patient-centeredness and difficulty remembering contents of the interaction, distress, trust, and treatment perceptions. Results As predicted, oncologists higher in implicit racial bias had shorter interactions, and patients and observers rated these oncologists’ communication as less patient-centered and supportive. Higher implicit bias also was associated with more patient difficulty remembering contents of the interaction. In addition, oncologist implicit bias indirectly predicted less patient confidence in recommended treatments, and greater perceived difficulty completing them, through its impact on oncologists’ communication (as rated by both patients and observers). Conclusion Oncologist implicit racial bias is negatively associated with oncologist communication, patients’ reactions to racially discordant oncology interactions, and patient perceptions of recommended treatments

Virtual Embodiment of White People in a Black Virtual Body Leads to a Sustained Reduction in Their Implicit Racial Bias.

PubMed

Banakou, Domna; Hanumanthu, Parasuram D; Slater, Mel

2016-01-01

Virtual reality can be used to visually substitute a person's body by a life-sized virtual one. Such embodiment results in a perceptual illusion of body ownership over the virtual body (VB). Previous research has shown that the form of the VB can influence implicit attitudes. In particular, embodying White people in a Black virtual body is associated with an immediate decrease in their implicit racial bias against Black people. We tested whether the reduction in implicit bias lasts for at least 1 week and whether it is enhanced by multiple exposures. Two experiments were carried out with a total of 90 female participants where the virtual body was either Black or White. Participants were required to follow a virtual Tai Chi teacher who was either Asian or European Caucasian. Each participant had 1, 2, or 3 exposures separated by days. Implicit racial bias was measured 1 week before their first exposure and 1 week after their last. The results show that implicit bias decreased more for those with the Black virtual body than the White. There was also some evidence of a general decrease in bias independently of body type for which possible explanations are put forward.

Social Anxiety and Biased Recall of Positive Information: It's Not the Content, It's the Valence.

PubMed

Glazier, Brianne L; Alden, Lynn E

2017-07-01

Cognitive theorists hypothesize that individuals with social anxiety are prone to memory biases such that event recall becomes more negative over time. With few exceptions, studies have focused primarily on changes in negative self-judgments. The current study examined whether memory for positive social events is also subject to recall bias. Undergraduate participants (N = 138) engaged in an unexpected public speaking task and received standardized positive or neutral feedback on their performance. They rated their memory of the received feedback following a 5-minute delay and again 1 week later. Results revealed that higher scores on social anxiety symptoms predicted significant reductions in the recalled valence of positive feedback over time, whereas no changes were observed for neutral feedback. The results suggest that social anxiety may lead to erosion in memory of positive events. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Meta-assessment of bias in science

PubMed Central

Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Ioannidis, John P. A.

2017-01-01

Numerous biases are believed to affect the scientific literature, but their actual prevalence across disciplines is unknown. To gain a comprehensive picture of the potential imprint of bias in science, we probed for the most commonly postulated bias-related patterns and risk factors, in a large random sample of meta-analyses taken from all disciplines. The magnitude of these biases varied widely across fields and was overall relatively small. However, we consistently observed a significant risk of small, early, and highly cited studies to overestimate effects and of studies not published in peer-reviewed journals to underestimate them. We also found at least partial confirmation of previous evidence suggesting that US studies and early studies might report more extreme effects, although these effects were smaller and more heterogeneously distributed across meta-analyses and disciplines. Authors publishing at high rates and receiving many citations were, overall, not at greater risk of bias. However, effect sizes were likely to be overestimated by early-career researchers, those working in small or long-distance collaborations, and those responsible for scientific misconduct, supporting hypotheses that connect bias to situational factors, lack of mutual control, and individual integrity. Some of these patterns and risk factors might have modestly increased in intensity over time, particularly in the social sciences. Our findings suggest that, besides one being routinely cautious that published small, highly-cited, and earlier studies may yield inflated results, the feasibility and costs of interventions to attenuate biases in the literature might need to be discussed on a discipline-specific and topic-specific basis. PMID:28320937

Sex Ratio Bias Leads to the Evolution of Sex Role Reversal in Honey Locust Beetles.

PubMed

Fritzsche, Karoline; Booksmythe, Isobel; Arnqvist, Göran

2016-09-26

The reversal of conventional sex roles was enigmatic to Darwin, who suggested that it may evolve when sex ratios are female biased [1]. Here we present direct evidence confirming Darwin's hypothesis. We investigated mating system evolution in a sex-role-reversed beetle (Megabruchidius dorsalis) using experimental evolution under manipulated sex ratios and food regimes. In female-biased populations, where reproductive competition among females was intensified, females evolved to be more attractive and the sex roles became more reversed. Interestingly, female-specific mating behavior evolved more rapidly than male-specific mating behavior. We show that sexual selection due to reproductive competition can be strong in females and can target much the same traits as in males of species with conventional mating systems. Our study highlights two central points: the role of ecology in directing sexual selection and the role that females play in mating system evolution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Surface Winds and Dust Biases in Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evan, A. T.

2018-01-01

An analysis of North African dust from models participating in the Fifth Climate Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggested that, when forced by observed sea surface temperatures, these models were unable to reproduce any aspects of the observed year-to-year variability in dust from North Africa. Consequently, there would be little reason to have confidence in the models' projections of changes in dust over the 21st century. However, no subsequent study has elucidated the root causes of the disagreement between CMIP5 and observed dust. Here I develop an idealized model of dust emission and then use this model to show that, over North Africa, such biases in CMIP5 models are due to errors in the surface wind fields and not due to the representation of dust emission processes. These results also suggest that because the surface wind field over North Africa is highly spatially autocorrelated, intermodel differences in the spatial structure of dust emission have little effect on the relative change in year-to-year dust emission over the continent. I use these results to show that similar biases in North African dust from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) version 2 surface wind field biases but that these wind biases were not present in the first version of MERRA.

The impact of selection bias on vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative studies.

PubMed

Jackson, Michael L; Phillips, C Hallie; Benoit, Joyce; Kiniry, Erika; Madziwa, Lawrence; Nelson, Jennifer C; Jackson, Lisa A

2018-01-29

Estimates of vaccine effectiveness (VE) from test-negative studies may be subject to selection bias. In the context of influenza VE, we used simulations to identify situations in which meaningful selection bias can occur. We also analyzed observational study data for evidence of selection bias. For the simulation study, we defined a hypothetical population whose members are at risk for acute respiratory illness (ARI) due to influenza and other pathogens. An unmeasured "healthcare seeking proclivity" affects both probability of vaccination and probability of seeking care for an ARI. We varied the direction and magnitude of these effects and identified situations where meaningful bias occurred. For the observational study, we reanalyzed data from the United States Influenza VE Network, an ongoing test-negative study. We compared "bias-naïve" VE estimates to bias-adjusted estimates, which used data from the source populations to correct for sampling bias. In the simulation study, an unmeasured care-seeking proclivity could create selection bias if persons with influenza ARI were more (or less) likely to seek care than persons with non-influenza ARI. However, selection bias was only meaningful when rates of care seeking between influenza ARI and non-influenza ARI were very different. In the observational study, the bias-naïve VE estimate of 55% (95% CI, 47--62%) was trivially different from the bias-adjusted VE estimate of 57% (95% CI, 49--63%). In combination, these studies suggest that while selection bias is possible in test-negative VE studies, this bias in unlikely to be meaningful under conditions likely to be encountered in practice. Researchers and public health officials can continue to rely on VE estimates from test-negative studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When being narrow minded is a good thing: locally biased people show stronger contextual cueing.

PubMed

Bellaera, Lauren; von Mühlenen, Adrian; Watson, Derrick G

2014-01-01

Repeated contexts allow us to find relevant information more easily. Learning such contexts has been proposed to depend upon either global processing of the repeated contexts, or alternatively processing of the local region surrounding the target information. In this study, we measured the extent to which observers were by default biased to process towards a more global or local level. The findings showed that the ability to use context to help guide their search was strongly related to an observer's local/global processing bias. Locally biased people could use context to help improve their search better than globally biased people. The results suggest that the extent to which context can be used depends crucially on the observer's attentional bias and thus also to factors and influences that can change this bias.

Prior probability and feature predictability interactively bias perceptual decisions

PubMed Central

Dunovan, Kyle E.; Tremel, Joshua J.; Wheeler, Mark E.

2014-01-01

Anticipating a forthcoming sensory experience facilitates perception for expected stimuli but also hinders perception for less likely alternatives. Recent neuroimaging studies suggest that expectation biases arise from feature-level predictions that enhance early sensory representations and facilitate evidence accumulation for contextually probable stimuli while suppressing alternatives. Reasonably then, the extent to which prior knowledge biases subsequent sensory processing should depend on the precision of expectations at the feature level as well as the degree to which expected features match those of an observed stimulus. In the present study we investigated how these two sources of uncertainty modulated pre- and post-stimulus bias mechanisms in the drift-diffusion model during a probabilistic face/house discrimination task. We tested several plausible models of choice bias, concluding that predictive cues led to a bias in both the starting-point and rate of evidence accumulation favoring the more probable stimulus category. We further tested the hypotheses that prior bias in the starting-point was conditional on the feature-level uncertainty of category expectations and that dynamic bias in the drift-rate was modulated by the match between expected and observed stimulus features. Starting-point estimates suggested that subjects formed a constant prior bias in favor of the face category, which exhibits less feature-level variability, that was strengthened or weakened by trial-wise predictive cues. Furthermore, we found that the gain on face/house evidence was increased for stimuli with less ambiguous features and that this relationship was enhanced by valid category expectations. These findings offer new evidence that bridges psychological models of decision-making with recent predictive coding theories of perception. PMID:24978303

Agonistic aptamer to the insulin receptor leads to biased signaling and functional selectivity through allosteric modulation

PubMed Central

Yunn, Na-Oh; Koh, Ara; Han, Seungmin; Lim, Jong Hun; Park, Sehoon; Lee, Jiyoun; Kim, Eui; Jang, Sung Key; Berggren, Per-Olof; Ryu, Sung Ho

2015-01-01

Due to their high affinity and specificity, aptamers have been widely used as effective inhibitors in clinical applications. However, the ability to activate protein function through aptamer-protein interaction has not been well-elucidated. To investigate their potential as target-specific agonists, we used SELEX to generate aptamers to the insulin receptor (IR) and identified an agonistic aptamer named IR-A48 that specifically binds to IR, but not to IGF-1 receptor. Despite its capacity to stimulate IR autophosphorylation, similar to insulin, we found that IR-A48 not only binds to an allosteric site distinct from the insulin binding site, but also preferentially induces Y1150 phosphorylation in the IR kinase domain. Moreover, Y1150-biased phosphorylation induced by IR-A48 selectively activates specific signaling pathways downstream of IR. In contrast to insulin-mediated activation of IR, IR-A48 binding has little effect on the MAPK pathway and proliferation of cancer cells. Instead, AKT S473 phosphorylation is highly stimulated by IR-A48, resulting in increased glucose uptake both in vitro and in vivo. Here, we present IR-A48 as a biased agonist able to selectively induce the metabolic activity of IR through allosteric binding. Furthermore, our study also suggests that aptamers can be a promising tool for developing artificial biased agonists to targeted receptors. PMID:26245346

Thin-Film Module Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites Identified by Thermal Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Steven; Sulas, Dana; Guthrey, Harvey L

Thin-film module sections are stressed under reverse bias to simulate partial shading conditions. Such stresses can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects due to thermal runaway. When large reverse biases with limited current are applied to the cells, dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) can detect where spatially-localized breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. Predicted breakdown defect sites have been identified in both CIGS and CdTe modules using DLIT. These defects include small pinholes, craters, or voids in the absorber layer of the film that lead to built-in areas of weakness where high current densities maymore » cause thermal damage in a partial-shading event.« less

Experimental and theoretical determination of sea-state bias in radar altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Robert H.

1991-01-01

The major unknown error in radar altimetry is due to waves on the sea surface which cause the mean radar-reflecting surface to be displaced from mean sea level. This is the electromagnetic bias. The primary motivation for the project was to understand the causes of the bias so that the error it produces in radar altimetry could be calculated and removed from altimeter measurements made from space by the Topex/Poseidon altimetric satellite. The goals of the project were: (1) observe radar scatter at vertical incidence using a simple radar on a platform for a wide variety of environmental conditions at the same time wind and wave conditions were measured; (2) calculate electromagnetic bias from the radar observations; (3) investigate the limitations of the present theory describing radar scatter at vertical incidence; (4) compare measured electromagnetic bias with bias calculated from theory using measurements of wind and waves made at the time of the radar measurements; and (5) if possible, extend the theory so bias can be calculated for a wider range of environmental conditions.

Polarization dependent photo-induced bias stress effect in organic transistors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podzorov, Vitaly; Choi, Hyun Ho; Najafov, Hikmet; Saranin, Danila; Kharlamov, Nikolai A.; Kuznetzov, Denis V.; Didenko, Sergei I.; Cho, Kilwon; Briseno, Alejandro L.; Rutgers-Misis Collaboration; Ru-P Collaboration; Ru-Um Collaboration; Um-P Collaboration

Photo-induced charge transfer between a semiconductor and a gate insulator that occurs in organic transistors operating under illumination leads to a shift of the onset gate voltage in these devices. Here we report an observation of a polarization dependent photo-induced bias-stress effect in two prototypical single-crystal organic field-effect transistors, based on rubrene and TPBIQ. We find that the rate of the effect is a periodic function of polarization angle of a linearly polarized photoexcitation, with a periodicity of π. The observed phenomenon provides an effective tool for addressing the relationship between molecular packing and parameter drift in organic transistors under illumination. The work was carried out with financial support from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation in the framework of Increase Competitiveness Program of NUST «MISiS» (No. K3-2016-004), by gov. decree 16/03/2013, N 211.

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

2007-01-01

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent

Bias-dependent oscillatory electron transport of monatomic sulfur chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jing-Xin; Cheng, Yan; Sanvito, Stefano; Chen, Xiang-Rong

2012-03-01

The bias-dependent oscillatory electron transport of monatomic sulfur chains sandwiched between gold electrodes is investigated with density functional theory and non-equilibrium Green's function method. At zero bias, in contrast to the typical odd-even oscillations observed in most metallic chains, we find that the conductance oscillates with a period of four atoms. However, as the bias voltage is increased the current displays a two-atom periodicity. This emerges gradually, first for the longer chains and then, at voltages larger than 0.7 V, for lengths. The oscillatory behaviors are analyzed by the density of states and the energy-dependent and bias-dependent transmission coefficients.

Cognitive-Processing Bias in Chinese Student Teachers with Strong and Weak Professional Identity

PubMed Central

Wang, Xin-qiang; Zhu, Jun-cheng; Liu, Lu; Chen, Xiang-yu

2017-01-01

Professional identity plays an important role in career development. Although many studies have examined professional identity, differences in cognitive-processing biases between Chinese student teachers with strong and weak professional identity are poorly understood. The current study adopted Tversky’s social-cognitive experimental paradigm to explore cognitive-processing biases in Chinese student teachers with strong and weak professional identity. Experiment 1 showed that participants with strong professional identity exhibited stronger positive-coding bias toward positive profession-related life events, relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity. Experiment 2 showed that participants with strong professional identity exhibited greater recognition bias for previously read items, relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity. Overall, the results suggested that participants with strong professional identity exhibited greater positive cognitive-processing bias relative to that observed in those with weak professional identity. PMID:28555123

Bias of animal population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geissler, P.H.; Link, W.A.; Wegman, E.J.; Gantz, D.T.; Miller, J.J.

1988-01-01

A computer simulation study of the population trend estimator used for the Mourning Dove Call-Count Survey, Woodcock Singing Ground Survey, Breeding Bird Survey and other surveys concluded that the estimator had negligible bias in most situations but that observer covariables should not be used with less than five years of data. With rare species (e.g. two birds per route), at least five years should be used. The estimator is seriously biased towards not detecting population changes with very rare species (e.g. 0.3 birds per route). Other technical recommendations are made.

Reducing bias and analyzing variability in the time-left procedure.

PubMed

Trujano, R Emmanuel; Orduña, Vladimir

2015-04-01

The time-left procedure was designed to evaluate the psychophysical function for time. Although previous results indicated a linear relationship, it is not clear what role the observed bias toward the time-left option plays in this procedure and there are no reports of how variability changes with predicted indifference. The purposes of this experiment were to reduce bias experimentally, and to contrast the difference limen (a measure of variability around indifference) with predictions from scalar expectancy theory (linear timing) and behavioral economic model (logarithmic timing). A control group of 6 rats performed the original time-left procedure with C=60 s and S=5, 10,…, 50, 55 s, whereas a no-bias group of 6 rats performed the same conditions in a modified time-left procedure in which only a single response per choice trial was allowed. Results showed that bias was reduced for the no-bias group, observed indifference grew linearly with predicted indifference for both groups, and difference limen and Weber ratios decreased as expected indifference increased for the control group, which is consistent with linear timing, whereas for the no-bias group they remained constant, consistent with logarithmic timing. Therefore, the time-left procedure generates results consistent with logarithmic perceived time once bias is experimentally reduced. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exchange bias effect in CoAl2O4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, Prachi; Marik, Sourav; Singh, Ravi P.

2018-04-01

Herein, we report the appearance of a significant exchange bias (EB) effect for the highly frustrated spinel material CoAl2O4. It shows a large value of frustration parameter as observed from the dc susceptibility measurements. CoAl2O4 exhibits the exchange bias effect below 8 K when it is cooled in the presence of a magnetic field. Detailed magnetization measurements indicate that the exchange bias properties of this compound are associated with the frustration present in this material.

Method for revealing biases in precision mass measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vabson, V.; Vendt, R.; Kübarsepp, T.; Noorma, M.

2013-02-01

A practical method for the quantification of systematic errors of large-scale automatic comparators is presented. This method is based on a comparison of the performance of two different comparators. First, the differences of 16 equal partial loads of 1 kg are measured with a high-resolution mass comparator featuring insignificant bias and 1 kg maximum load. At the second stage, a large-scale comparator is tested by using combined loads with known mass differences. Comparing the different results, the biases of any comparator can be easily revealed. These large-scale comparator biases are determined over a 16-month period, and for the 1 kg loads, a typical pattern of biases in the range of ±0.4 mg is observed. The temperature differences recorded inside the comparator concurrently with mass measurements are found to remain within a range of ±30 mK, which obviously has a minor effect on the detected biases. Seasonal variations imply that the biases likely arise mainly due to the functioning of the environmental control at the measurement location.

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

PubMed Central

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S.; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J.

2018-01-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself. PMID:29381448

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism.

PubMed

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J

2018-03-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people's futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself.

The self-attribution bias and paranormal beliefs.

PubMed

van Elk, Michiel

2017-03-01

The present study investigated the relation between paranormal beliefs, illusory control and the self-attribution bias, i.e., the motivated tendency to attribute positive outcomes to oneself while negative outcomes are externalized. Visitors of a psychic fair played a card guessing game and indicated their perceived control over randomly selected cards as a function of the congruency and valence of the card. A stronger self-attribution bias was observed for paranormal believers compared to skeptics and this bias was specifically related to traditional religious beliefs and belief in superstition. No relation between paranormal beliefs and illusory control was found. Self-report measures indicated that paranormal beliefs were associated to being raised in a spiritual family and to anomalous experiences during childhood. Thereby this study suggests that paranormal beliefs are related to specific cognitive biases that in turn are shaped by socio-cultural factors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lead-Time Bias and Interhospital Transfer after Injury: Trauma Center Admission Vital Signs Underpredict Mortality in Transferred Trauma Patients.

PubMed

Holena, Daniel N; Wiebe, Douglas J; Carr, Brendan G; Hsu, Jesse Y; Sperry, Jason L; Peitzman, Andrew B; Reilly, Patrick M

2017-03-01

Admission physiology predicts mortality after injury, but may be improved by resuscitation before transfer. This phenomenon, which has been termed lead-time bias, may lead to underprediction of mortality in transferred patients and inaccurate benchmarking in centers receiving large numbers of transfer patients. We sought to determine the impact of using vital signs on arrival at the referring center vs on arrival at the trauma center in mortality prediction models for transferred trauma patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study using a state-wide trauma registry including all patients age 16 years or older, with Abbreviated Injury Scale scores ≥ 3, admitted to level I and II trauma centers in Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2014. The primary outcomes measure was the risk-adjusted association between mortality and interhospital transfer (IHT) when adjusting for physiology (as measured by Revised Trauma Score [RTS]) using the referring hospital arrival vital signs (model 1) compared with trauma center arrival vital signs (model 2). After adjusting for patient and injury factors, IHT was associated with reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.93) using the RTS from trauma center admission, but with increased mortality (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.27) using RTS from the referring hospital. The greater the number of transfer patients seen by a center, the greater the difference in center-level mortality predicted by the 2 models (β -0.044; 95% CI -0.044 to -0.0043; p ≤ 0.001). Trauma center vital signs underestimate mortality in transfer patients and may lead to incorrect estimates of expected mortality. Where possible, benchmarking efforts should use referring hospital vital signs to risk-adjust IHT patients. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of electronic transitions and frequency dependence of negative capacitance in semiconductor diodes under high forward bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bansal, Kanika; Datta, Shouvik; Henini, Mohamed

2014-09-22

We observed qualitatively dissimilar frequency dependence of negative capacitance under high charge injection in two sets of functionally different junction diodes: III-V based light emitting and Si-based non-light emitting diodes. Using an advanced approach based on bias activated differential capacitance, we developed a generalized understanding of negative capacitance phenomenon which can be extended to any diode based device structure. We explained the observations as the mutual competition of fast and slow electronic transition rates which are different in different devices. This study can be useful in understanding the interfacial effects in semiconductor heterostructures and may lead to superior device functionality.

Spectral Resolution-linked Bias in Transit Spectroscopy of Extrasolar Planets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deming, Drake; Sheppard, Kyle

We re-visit the principles of transmission spectroscopy for transiting extrasolar planets, focusing on the overlap between the planetary spectrum and the illuminating stellar spectrum. Virtually all current models of exoplanetary transmission spectra utilize an approximation that is inaccurate when the spectrum of the illuminating star has a complex line structure, such as molecular bands in M-dwarf spectra. In those cases, it is desirable to model the observations using a coupled stellar–planetary radiative transfer model calculated at high spectral resolving power, followed by convolution to the observed resolution. Not consistently accounting for overlap of stellar M-dwarf and planetary lines at highmore » spectral resolution can bias the modeled amplitude of the exoplanetary transmission spectrum, producing modeled absorption that is too strong. We illustrate this bias using the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1b, as observed using Hubble Space Telescope /WFC3. The bias in this case is about 250 ppm, 12% of the modeled transit absorption. Transit spectroscopy using JWST will have access to longer wavelengths where the water bands are intrinsically stronger, and the observed signal-to-noise ratios will be higher than currently possible. We therefore expect that this resolution-linked bias will be especially important for future JWST observations of TESS-discovered super-Earths and mini-Neptunes transiting M-dwarfs.« less

Virtual Embodiment of White People in a Black Virtual Body Leads to a Sustained Reduction in Their Implicit Racial Bias

PubMed Central

Banakou, Domna; Hanumanthu, Parasuram D.; Slater, Mel

2016-01-01

Virtual reality can be used to visually substitute a person's body by a life-sized virtual one. Such embodiment results in a perceptual illusion of body ownership over the virtual body (VB). Previous research has shown that the form of the VB can influence implicit attitudes. In particular, embodying White people in a Black virtual body is associated with an immediate decrease in their implicit racial bias against Black people. We tested whether the reduction in implicit bias lasts for at least 1 week and whether it is enhanced by multiple exposures. Two experiments were carried out with a total of 90 female participants where the virtual body was either Black or White. Participants were required to follow a virtual Tai Chi teacher who was either Asian or European Caucasian. Each participant had 1, 2, or 3 exposures separated by days. Implicit racial bias was measured 1 week before their first exposure and 1 week after their last. The results show that implicit bias decreased more for those with the Black virtual body than the White. There was also some evidence of a general decrease in bias independently of body type for which possible explanations are put forward. PMID:27965555

Publication bias in dermatology systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

PubMed

Atakpo, Paul; Vassar, Matt

2016-05-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses in dermatology provide high-level evidence for clinicians and policy makers that influence clinical decision making and treatment guidelines. One methodological problem with systematic reviews is the under representation of unpublished studies. This problem is due in part to publication bias. Omission of statistically non-significant data from meta-analyses may result in overestimation of treatment effect sizes which may lead to clinical consequences. Our goal was to assess whether systematic reviewers in dermatology evaluate and report publication bias. Further, we wanted to conduct our own evaluation of publication bias on meta-analyses that failed to do so. Our study considered systematic reviews and meta-analyses from ten dermatology journals from 2006 to 2016. A PubMed search was conducted, and all full-text articles that met our inclusion criteria were retrieved and coded by the primary author. 293 articles were included in our analysis. Additionally, we formally evaluated publication bias in meta-analyses that failed to do so using trim and fill and cumulative meta-analysis by precision methods. Publication bias was mentioned in 107 articles (36.5%) and was formally evaluated in 64 articles (21.8%). Visual inspection of a funnel plot was the most common method of evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was present in 45 articles (15.3%), not present in 57 articles (19.5%) and not determined in 191 articles (65.2%). Using the trim and fill method, 7 meta-analyses (33.33%) showed evidence of publication bias. Although the trim and fill method only found evidence of publication bias in 7 meta-analyses, the cumulative meta-analysis by precision method found evidence of publication bias in 15 meta-analyses (71.4%). Many of the reviews in our study did not mention or evaluate publication bias. Further, of the 42 articles that stated following PRISMA reporting guidelines, 19 (45.2%) evaluated for publication bias. In

Reducing bias in survival under non-random temporary emigration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peñaloza, Claudia L.; Kendall, William L.; Langtimm, Catherine Ann

2014-01-01

sources of data improved parameter estimates and reduced terminal bias. Efforts to incorporate or acquire such data should be considered by researchers and wildlife managers, especially in the years leading up to status assessments of species of interest. Simulation modeling is a very cost effective method to explore the potential impacts of using different sources of data to produce high quality demographic data to inform management.

The Effects of Oncologist Implicit Racial Bias in Racially Discordant Oncology Interactions.

PubMed

Penner, Louis A; Dovidio, John F; Gonzalez, Richard; Albrecht, Terrance L; Chapman, Robert; Foster, Tanina; Harper, Felicity W K; Hagiwara, Nao; Hamel, Lauren M; Shields, Anthony F; Gadgeel, Shirish; Simon, Michael S; Griggs, Jennifer J; Eggly, Susan

2016-08-20

Health providers' implicit racial bias negatively affects communication and patient reactions to many medical interactions. However, its effects on racially discordant oncology interactions are largely unknown. Thus, we examined whether oncologist implicit racial bias has similar effects in oncology interactions. We further investigated whether oncologist implicit bias negatively affects patients' perceptions of recommended treatments (i.e., degree of confidence, expected difficulty). We predicted oncologist implicit bias would negatively affect communication, patient reactions to interactions, and, indirectly, patient perceptions of recommended treatments. Participants were 18 non-black medical oncologists and 112 black patients. Oncologists completed an implicit racial bias measure several weeks before video-recorded treatment discussions with new patients. Observers rated oncologist communication and recorded interaction length of time and amount of time oncologists and patients spoke. Following interactions, patients answered questions about oncologists' patient-centeredness and difficulty remembering contents of the interaction, distress, trust, and treatment perceptions. As predicted, oncologists higher in implicit racial bias had shorter interactions, and patients and observers rated these oncologists' communication as less patient-centered and supportive. Higher implicit bias also was associated with more patient difficulty remembering contents of the interaction. In addition, oncologist implicit bias indirectly predicted less patient confidence in recommended treatments, and greater perceived difficulty completing them, through its impact on oncologists' communication (as rated by both patients and observers). Oncologist implicit racial bias is negatively associated with oncologist communication, patients' reactions to racially discordant oncology interactions, and patient perceptions of recommended treatments. These perceptions could subsequently directly

Immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons.

PubMed

White, Katherine; Van Boven, Leaf

2012-08-01

In seven studies of naturally occurring, "real-world" emotional events, people demonstrated an immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons, perceiving their own current or recent emotional reactions as more intense compared with others' emotional reactions to the same events. The events examined include crossing a scary bridge (study 1a), a national tragedy (study 1b), terrorist attacks (studies 2a and 3b), a natural disaster (study 2b), and a presidential election (study 3b). These perceived differences between one's own and others' emotions declined over time, as relatively immediate and recent emotions subsided, a pattern that people were not intuitively aware of (study 2c). This immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons emerged for both explicit comparisons (studies 1a, 1b, and 3b), and for absolute judgments of emotional intensity (studies 2a, 2b, and 3a). Finally, the immediacy bias in social-emotional comparisons was reduced when people were reminded that emotional display norms might lead others' appearances to understate emotional intensity (studies 3a and 3b). Implications of these findings for social-emotional phenomena are discussed.

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-Weighted Accumulation of past Choices

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of autocorrelation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-weighted Accumulation of Past Choices.

PubMed

Braun, Anke; Urai, Anne E; Donner, Tobias H

2018-01-25

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: Observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of auto-correlation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Taken together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment. Significance statement: Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to

Implicit bias in healthcare professionals: a systematic review.

PubMed

FitzGerald, Chloë; Hurst, Samia

2017-03-01

Implicit biases involve associations outside conscious awareness that lead to a negative evaluation of a person on the basis of irrelevant characteristics such as race or gender. This review examines the evidence that healthcare professionals display implicit biases towards patients. PubMed, PsychINFO, PsychARTICLE and CINAHL were searched for peer-reviewed articles published between 1st March 2003 and 31st March 2013. Two reviewers assessed the eligibility of the identified papers based on precise content and quality criteria. The references of eligible papers were examined to identify further eligible studies. Forty two articles were identified as eligible. Seventeen used an implicit measure (Implicit Association Test in fifteen and subliminal priming in two), to test the biases of healthcare professionals. Twenty five articles employed a between-subjects design, using vignettes to examine the influence of patient characteristics on healthcare professionals' attitudes, diagnoses, and treatment decisions. The second method was included although it does not isolate implicit attitudes because it is recognised by psychologists who specialise in implicit cognition as a way of detecting the possible presence of implicit bias. Twenty seven studies examined racial/ethnic biases; ten other biases were investigated, including gender, age and weight. Thirty five articles found evidence of implicit bias in healthcare professionals; all the studies that investigated correlations found a significant positive relationship between level of implicit bias and lower quality of care. The evidence indicates that healthcare professionals exhibit the same levels of implicit bias as the wider population. The interactions between multiple patient characteristics and between healthcare professional and patient characteristics reveal the complexity of the phenomenon of implicit bias and its influence on clinician-patient interaction. The most convincing studies from our review are those

Publication Bias and Nonreporting Found in Majority of Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses in Anesthesiology Journals.

PubMed

Hedin, Riley J; Umberham, Blake A; Detweiler, Byron N; Kollmorgen, Lauren; Vassar, Matt

2016-10-01

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are used by clinicians to derive treatment guidelines and make resource allocation decisions in anesthesiology. One cause for concern with such reviews is the possibility that results from unpublished trials are not represented in the review findings or data synthesis. This problem, known as publication bias, results when studies reporting statistically nonsignificant findings are left unpublished and, therefore, not included in meta-analyses when estimating a pooled treatment effect. In turn, publication bias may lead to skewed results with overestimated effect sizes. The primary objective of this study is to determine the extent to which evaluations for publication bias are conducted by systematic reviewers in highly ranked anesthesiology journals and which practices reviewers use to mitigate publication bias. The secondary objective of this study is to conduct publication bias analyses on the meta-analyses that did not perform these assessments and examine the adjusted pooled effect estimates after accounting for publication bias. This study considered meta-analyses and systematic reviews from 5 peer-reviewed anesthesia journals from 2007 through 2015. A PubMed search was conducted, and full-text systematic reviews that fit inclusion criteria were downloaded and coded independently by 2 authors. Coding was then validated, and disagreements were settled by consensus. In total, 207 systematic reviews were included for analysis. In addition, publication bias evaluation was performed for 25 systematic reviews that did not do so originally. We used Egger regression, Duval and Tweedie trim and fill, and funnel plots for these analyses. Fifty-five percent (n = 114) of the reviews discussed publication bias, and 43% (n = 89) of the reviews evaluated publication bias. Funnel plots and Egger regression were the most common methods for evaluating publication bias. Publication bias was reported in 34 reviews (16%). Thirty-six of the 45

Heuristic Processes in Ratings of Leader Behavior: Assessing Item-Induced Availability Biases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Binning, John F.; Fernandez, Guadalupe

Since observers' memory-based ratings of organizational phenomena provide data in research and decision-making contexts, bias in observers' judgments must be examined. A study was conducted to explore the extent to which leader behavior ratings are more generally biased by the availability heuristic. The availability heuristic is operative when a…

Estimation and Correction of bias of long-term simulated climate data from Global Circulation Models (GCMs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehan, S.; Gitau, M. W.

2017-12-01

Global circulation models are often used in simulating long-term climate data for use in hydrologic studies. However, some bias (difference between simulated values and observed data) has been observed especially while simulating precipitation events. The bias is especially evident with respect to simulating dry and wet days. This is because GCMs tend to underestimate large precipitation events with the associated precipitation amounts being distributed to some dry days, thus, leading to a larger number of wet days each with some amount of rainfall. The accuracy of precipitation simulations impacts the accuracy of other simulated components such as flow and water quality. It is, thus, very important to correct the bias associated with precipitation before it is used for any modeling applications. This study aims to correct the bias specifically associated with precipitation events with a focus on the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Analytical, statistical, and extreme event analyses for three different stations (Adrian, MI; Norwalk, OH; and Fort Wayne, IN) in the WLEB were carried out to quantify the bias. Findings indicated that GCMs overestimated the wet sequences and underestimated dry day probabilities. The number of wet sequences simulated by nine GCMs each from two different open sources were 310-678 (Fort Wayne, IN); 318-600 (Adrian, MI); and 346-638 (Norwalk, OH) compared with 166, 150, and 180, respectively. Predicted conditional probabilities of a dry day followed by wet day (P (D|W)) ranged between 0.16-0.42 (Fort Wayne, IN); 0.29-0.41(Adrian, MI); and 0.13-0.40 (Norwalk, OH) from the different GCMs compared to 0.52 (Fort Wayne, IN and Norwalk, OH); and 0.54 (Adrian, MI) from the observed climate data. There was a difference of 0-8.5% between the distribution of simulated climate values and observed climate data for precipitation and temperature for all three stations (Cohen's d effective size < 0.2). Further work involves the use of Stochastic Weather

Monocular Patching May Induce Ipsilateral “Where” Spatial Bias

PubMed Central

Chen, Peii; Erdahl, Lillian; Barrett, Anna M.

2009-01-01

Spatial bias is an asymmetry of perception and/or representation of spatial information —“where” bias —, or of spatially directed actions — “aiming” bias. A monocular patch may induce contralateral “where” spatial bias (the Sprague effect; Sprague (1966) Science, 153, 1544–1547). However, an ipsilateral patch-induced spatial bias may be observed if visual occlusion results in top-down, compensatory re-allocation of spatial perceptual or representational resources toward the region of visual deprivation. Tactile distraction from a monocular patch may also contribute to an ipsilateral bias. To examine these hypotheses, neurologically normal adults bisected horizontal lines at baseline without a patch, while wearing a monocular patch, and while wearing tactile-only and visual-only monocular occlusion. We fractionated “where” and “aiming” spatial bias components using a video apparatus to reverse visual feedback for half of the test trials. The results support monocular patch-induced ipsilateral “where” spatial errors, which are not consistent with the Sprague effect. Further, the present findings suggested that the induced ipsilateral bias may be primarily induced by visual deprivation, consistent with compensatory “where” resource re-allocation. PMID:19100274

Affective Biases in Humans and Animals.

PubMed

Robinson, E S J; Roiser, J P

Depression is one of the most common but poorly understood psychiatric conditions. Although drug treatments and psychological therapies are effective in some patients, many do not achieve full remission and some patients receive no apparent benefit. Developing new improved treatments requires a better understanding of the aetiology of symptoms and evaluation of novel therapeutic targets in pre-clinical studies. Recent developments in our understanding of the basic cognitive processes that may contribute to the development of depression and its treatment offer new opportunities for both clinical and pre-clinical research. This chapter discusses the clinical evidence supporting a cognitive neuropsychological model of depression and antidepressant efficacy, and how this information may be usefully translated to pre-clinical investigation. Studies using neuropsychological tests in depressed patients and at risk populations have revealed basic negative emotional biases and disrupted reward and punishment processing, which may also impact on non-affective cognition. These affective biases are sensitive to antidepressant treatments with early onset effects observed, suggesting an important role in recovery. This clinical work into affective biases has also facilitated back-translation to animals and the development of assays to study affective biases in rodents. These animal studies suggest that, similar to humans, rodents in putative negative affective states exhibit negative affective biases on decision-making and memory tasks. Antidepressant treatments also induce positive biases in these rodent tasks, supporting the translational validity of this approach. Although still in the early stages of development and validation, affective biases in depression have the potential to offer new insights into the clinical condition, as well as facilitating the development of more translational approaches for pre-clinical studies.

Analysis of Observational Studies in the Presence of Treatment Selection Bias: Effects of Invasive Cardiac Management on AMI Survival Using Propensity Score and Instrumental Variable Methods

PubMed Central

Stukel, Thérèse A.; Fisher, Elliott S; Wennberg, David E.; Alter, David A.; Gottlieb, Daniel J.; Vermeulen, Marian J.

2007-01-01

Context Comparisons of outcomes between patients treated and untreated in observational studies may be biased due to differences in patient prognosis between groups, often because of unobserved treatment selection biases. Objective To compare 4 analytic methods for removing the effects of selection bias in observational studies: multivariable model risk adjustment, propensity score risk adjustment, propensity-based matching, and instrumental variable analysis. Design, Setting, and Patients A national cohort of 122 124 patients who were elderly (aged 65–84 years), receiving Medicare, and hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 1994–1995, and who were eligible for cardiac catheterization. Baseline chart reviews were taken from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project and linked to Medicare health administrative data to provide a rich set of prognostic variables. Patients were followed up for 7 years through December 31, 2001, to assess the association between long-term survival and cardiac catheterization within 30 days of hospital admission. Main Outcome Measure Risk-adjusted relative mortality rate using each of the analytic methods. Results Patients who received cardiac catheterization (n=73 238) were younger and had lower AMI severity than those who did not. After adjustment for prognostic factors by using standard statistical risk-adjustment methods, cardiac catheterization was associated with a 50% relative decrease in mortality (for multivariable model risk adjustment: adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50–0.52; for propensity score risk adjustment: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.53–0.55; and for propensity-based matching: adjusted RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.52–0.56). Using regional catheterization rate as an instrument, instrumental variable analysis showed a 16% relative decrease in mortality (adjusted RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90). The survival benefits of routine invasive care from randomized clinical trials

Coercivity Enhancement in Exchange Biased Bilayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leighton, C.

2001-03-01

The well-known enhancement in coercivity in ferromagnet / antiferromagnet bilayers has been studied in the model epitaxial system MnF2 / Fe. We have investigated how the coercivity depends on temperature, cooling field, layer thickness and interfacial disorder. In all cases a typical enhancement is observed on cooling below the Neel temperature of the antiferromagnet. However, for the case of positively exchange biased layers we observe an extra coercivity enhancement which occurs when the interface is deliberately driven to a situation of maximum magnetic frustration(C. Leighton, J. Nogues, B.J. Jonsson-Akerman and I.K. Schuller, Phys. Rev. Lett. 84 3466 (2000)). This situation is controlled by the magnitude of the cooling field, giving us an external parameter through which we can vary the coercivity. We propose a model where a frustrated interface provides local energy minima which effectively pin domain walls leading to an increase in coercivity. We further examine the ferromagnet thickness dependence of the effect as a probe of the coercive mechanisms(Z. Li and S. Zhang, Phys. Rev. B61 R14897 (2000) ; S. Zhang et al J. Mag. Mag. Mat. 198-199 468 (1999)). Work supported by the US DoE and the NSF.

Can baclofen change alcohol-related cognitive biases and what is the role of anxiety herein?

PubMed

Beraha, Esther M; Salemink, Elske; Krediet, Erwin; Wiers, Reinout W

2018-06-01

Baclofen has shown promise in the treatment of alcohol dependence. However, its precise (neuro-) psychological working mechanism is still under debate. This study aimed to get a better understanding of baclofen's working mechanism by examining the effect of baclofen on cognitive biases. It was hypothesized that baclofen, compared to placebo, would lead to weaker cognitive biases. Furthermore, given a suggested anxiolytic effect of baclofen, we expected that anxiety would moderate this effect. From a larger randomized clinical trial (RCT) with 151 participants, a subset of 143 detoxified alcohol-dependent patients, either taking baclofen or placebo, was examined. Attentional bias for alcohol (500 and 1500 ms), alcohol approach tendencies, implicit alcohol-relaxation associations and trait anxiety were assessed before the administration of baclofen or placebo. Four weeks later, 94 patients were still abstinent (53 in the baclofen and 41 in the placebo condition) and cognitive biases were assessed again. At baseline, patients showed a vigilance-avoidance pattern for the attentional bias (at 500 and 1500 ms, respectively) and alcohol-negative associations. After 4 weeks, an indication for an attentional bias away from alcohol at 500 ms was found only in the baclofen group; however, cognitive biases did not differ significantly between treatment groups. No moderating role of anxiety on cognitive biases was found. Baclofen did not lead to a differential change in cognitive biases compared with placebo, and trait anxiety levels did not moderate this. A better understanding of the working mechanism of baclofen and predictors of treatment success would allow prescribing of baclofen in a more targeted manner.

Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

Automated detection of heuristics and biases among pathologists in a computer-based system.

PubMed

Crowley, Rebecca S; Legowski, Elizabeth; Medvedeva, Olga; Reitmeyer, Kayse; Tseytlin, Eugene; Castine, Melissa; Jukic, Drazen; Mello-Thoms, Claudia

2013-08-01

The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) to develop an automated, computer-based method to detect heuristics and biases as pathologists examine virtual slide cases, (2) to measure the frequency and distribution of heuristics and errors across three levels of training, and (3) to examine relationships of heuristics to biases, and biases to diagnostic errors. The authors conducted the study using a computer-based system to view and diagnose virtual slide cases. The software recorded participant responses throughout the diagnostic process, and automatically classified participant actions based on definitions of eight common heuristics and/or biases. The authors measured frequency of heuristic use and bias across three levels of training. Biases studied were detected at varying frequencies, with availability and search satisficing observed most frequently. There were few significant differences by level of training. For representativeness and anchoring, the heuristic was used appropriately as often or more often than it was used in biased judgment. Approximately half of the diagnostic errors were associated with one or more biases. We conclude that heuristic use and biases were observed among physicians at all levels of training using the virtual slide system, although their frequencies varied. The system can be employed to detect heuristic use and to test methods for decreasing diagnostic errors resulting from cognitive biases.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Juan; Chen, Wen; Gong, Hainan; Ying, Jun; Jiang, Wenping

2018-06-01

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Niño to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill-Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Niño warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air-sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Niño warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Niño is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Niño warming.

Cosmic shear bias and calibration in dark energy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, A. N.; Kitching, T. D.

2018-07-01

With the advent of large-scale weak lensing surveys there is a need to understand how realistic, scale-dependent systematics bias cosmic shear and dark energy measurements, and how they can be removed. Here, we show how spatially varying image distortions are convolved with the shear field, mixing convergence E and B modes, and bias the observed shear power spectrum. In practise, many of these biases can be removed by calibration to data or simulations. The uncertainty in this calibration is marginalized over, and we calculate how this propagates into parameter estimation and degrades the dark energy Figure-of-Merit. We find that noise-like biases affect dark energy measurements the most, while spikes in the bias power have the least impact. We argue that, in order to remove systematic biases in cosmic shear surveys and maintain statistical power, effort should be put into improving the accuracy of the bias calibration rather than minimizing the size of the bias. In general, this appears to be a weaker condition for bias removal. We also investigate how to minimize the size of the calibration set for a fixed reduction in the Figure-of-Merit. Our results can be used to correctly model the effect of biases and calibration on a cosmic shear survey, assess their impact on the measurement of modified gravity and dark energy models, and to optimize survey and calibration requirements.

Categorisation salience and ingroup bias: the buffering role of a multicultural ideology.

PubMed

Costa-Lopes, Rui; Pereira, Cícero Roberto; Judd, Charles M

2014-12-01

The current work sought to test the moderating role of a multicultural ideology on the relationship between categorisation salience and ingroup bias. Accordingly, in one experimental study, we manipulated categorisation salience and the accessibility of a multicultural ideology, and measured intergroup attitudes. Results show that categorisation salience only leads to ingroup bias when a multiculturalism (MC) ideology is not made salient. Thus, MC ideology attenuates the negative effects of categorisation salience on ingroup bias. These results pertain to social psychology in general showing that the cognitive processes should be construed within the framework of ideological contexts. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Target selection biases from recent experience transfer across effectors.

PubMed

Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

2016-02-01

Target selection is often biased by an observer's recent experiences. However, not much is known about whether these selection biases influence behavior across different effectors. For example, does looking at a red object make it easier to subsequently reach towards another red object? In the current study, we asked observers to find the uniquely colored target object on each trial. Randomly intermixed pre-trial cues indicated the mode of action: either an eye movement or a visually guided reach movement to the target. In Experiment 1, we found that priming of popout, reflected in faster responses following repetition of the target color on consecutive trials, occurred regardless of whether the effector was repeated from the previous trial or not. In Experiment 2, we examined whether an inhibitory selection bias away from a feature could transfer across effectors. While priming of popout reflects both enhancement of the repeated target features and suppression of the repeated distractor features, the distractor previewing effect isolates a purely inhibitory component of target selection in which a previewed color is presented in a homogenous display and subsequently inhibited. Much like priming of popout, intertrial suppression biases in the distractor previewing effect transferred across effectors. Together, these results suggest that biases for target selection driven by recent trial history transfer across effectors. This indicates that representations in memory that bias attention towards or away from specific features are largely independent from their associated actions.

Implicit Social Biases in People with Autism

PubMed Central

Birmingham, Elina; Stanley, Damian; Nair, Remya; Adolphs, Ralph

2015-01-01

Implicit social biases are ubiquitous and are known to influence social behavior. A core diagnostic criterion of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is abnormal social behavior. Here we investigated the extent to which individuals with ASD might show a specific attenuation of implicit social biases, using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) across Social (gender, race) and Nonsocial (flowers/insect, shoes) categories. High-functioning adults with ASD showed intact but reduced IAT effects relative to healthy controls. Importantly, we observed no selective attenuation of implicit social (vs. nonsocial) biases in our ASD population. To extend these results, we collected data from a large online sample of the general population, and explored correlations between autistic traits and IAT effects. No associations were found between autistic traits and IAT effects for any of the categories tested in our online sample. Taken together, these results suggest that implicit social biases, as measured by the IAT, are largely intact in ASD. PMID:26386014

Correcting negatively biased refractivity below ducts in GNSS radio occultation: an optimal estimation approach towards improving planetary boundary layer (PBL) characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kuo-Nung; de la Torre Juárez, Manuel; Ao, Chi O.; Xie, Feiqin

2017-12-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurements are promising in sensing the vertical structure of the Earth's planetary boundary layer (PBL). However, large refractivity changes near the top of PBL can cause ducting and lead to a negative bias in the retrieved refractivity within the PBL (below ˜ 2 km). To remove the bias, a reconstruction method with assumption of linear structure inside the ducting layer models has been proposed by Xie et al. (2006). While the negative bias can be reduced drastically as demonstrated in the simulation, the lack of high-quality surface refractivity constraint makes its application to real RO data difficult. In this paper, we use the widely available precipitable water (PW) satellite observation as the external constraint for the bias correction. A new framework is proposed to incorporate optimization into the RO reconstruction retrievals in the presence of ducting conditions. The new method uses optimal estimation to select the best refractivity solution whose PW and PBL height best match the externally retrieved PW and the known a priori states, respectively. The near-coincident PW retrievals from AMSR-E microwave radiometer instruments are used as an external observational constraint. This new reconstruction method is tested on both the simulated GNSS-RO profiles and the actual GNSS-RO data. Our results show that the proposed method can greatly reduce the negative refractivity bias when compared to the traditional Abel inversion.

Preference bias of head orientation in choosing between two non-durables.

PubMed

Funaya, Hiroyuki; Shibata, Tomohiro

2015-01-01

The goal of this study is to investigate how customers' gaze, head and body orientations reflect their choices. Although the relationship between human choice and gaze behavior has been well-studied, other behaviors such as head and body are unknown. We conducted a two-alternatives-forced-choice task to examine (1) whether preference bias, i.e., a positional bias in gaze, head and body toward the item that was later chosen, exists in choice, (2) when preference bias is observed and when prediction of the resulting choice becomes possible (3) whether human choice is affected when the body orientations are manipulated. We used real non-durable products (cheap snacks and clothing) on a shopping shelf. The results showed that there was a significant preference bias in head orientation at the beginning 1 s when the subjects stood straight toward the shelf, and that the head orientation was more biased toward the selected item than the gaze and the center of pressure at the ending 1 s. Manipulating body orientation did not affect the result of choice. The preference bias detected by observing the head orientation would be useful in marketing science for predicting customers' choice.

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

Artificial bias typically neglected in comparisons of uncertain atmospheric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitkänen, Mikko R. A.; Mikkonen, Santtu; Lehtinen, Kari E. J.; Lipponen, Antti; Arola, Antti

2016-09-01

Publications in atmospheric sciences typically neglect biases caused by regression dilution (bias of the ordinary least squares line fitting) and regression to the mean (RTM) in comparisons of uncertain data. We use synthetic observations mimicking real atmospheric data to demonstrate how the biases arise from random data uncertainties of measurements, model output, or satellite retrieval products. Further, we provide examples of typical methods of data comparisons that have a tendency to pronounce the biases. The results show, that data uncertainties can significantly bias data comparisons due to regression dilution and RTM, a fact that is known in statistics but disregarded in atmospheric sciences. Thus, we argue that often these biases are widely regarded as measurement or modeling errors, for instance, while they in fact are artificial. It is essential that atmospheric and geoscience communities become aware of and consider these features in research.

Nonlinear bias analysis and correction of microwave temperature sounder observations for FY-3C meteorological satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Taiyang; Lv, Rongchuan; Jin, Xu; Li, Hao; Chen, Wenxin

2018-01-01

The nonlinear bias analysis and correction of receiving channels in Chinese FY-3C meteorological satellite Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) is a key technology of data assimilation for satellite radiance data. The thermal-vacuum chamber calibration data acquired from the MWTS can be analyzed to evaluate the instrument performance, including radiometric temperature sensitivity, channel nonlinearity and calibration accuracy. Especially, the nonlinearity parameters due to imperfect square-law detectors will be calculated from calibration data and further used to correct the nonlinear bias contributions of microwave receiving channels. Based upon the operational principles and thermalvacuum chamber calibration procedures of MWTS, this paper mainly focuses on the nonlinear bias analysis and correction methods for improving the calibration accuracy of the important instrument onboard FY-3C meteorological satellite, from the perspective of theoretical and experimental studies. Furthermore, a series of original results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility and significance of the methods.

Using Perturbed Physics Ensembles and Machine Learning to Select Parameters for Reducing Regional Biases in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Hawkins, L.; Mote, P.; McNeall, D. J.; Sarah, S.; Wallom, D.; Betts, R. A.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the potential to reduce known summer hot/dry biases over Pacific Northwest in the UK Met Office's atmospheric model (HadAM3P) by simultaneously varying multiple model parameters. The bias-reduction process is done through a series of steps: 1) Generation of perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) through the volunteer computing network weather@home; 2) Using machine learning to train "cheap" and fast statistical emulators of climate model, to rule out regions of parameter spaces that lead to model variants that do not satisfy observational constraints, where the observational constraints (e.g., top-of-atmosphere energy flux, magnitude of annual temperature cycle, summer/winter temperature and precipitation) are introduced sequentially; 3) Designing a new PPE by "pre-filtering" using the emulator results. Steps 1) through 3) are repeated until results are considered to be satisfactory (3 times in our case). The process includes a sensitivity analysis to find dominant parameters for various model output metrics, which reduces the number of parameters to be perturbed with each new PPE. Relative to observational uncertainty, we achieve regional improvements without introducing large biases in other parts of the globe. Our results illustrate the potential of using machine learning to train cheap and fast statistical emulators of climate model, in combination with PPEs in systematic model improvement.

Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

2015-12-01

High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

Are attentional bias and memory bias for negative words causally related?

PubMed

Blaut, Agata; Paulewicz, Borysław; Szastok, Marta; Prochwicz, Katarzyna; Koster, Ernst

2013-09-01

In cognitive theories of depression, processing biases are assumed to be partly responsible for the onset and maintenance of mood disorders. Despite a wealth of studies examining the relation between depression and individual biases (at the level of attention, interpretation, and memory), little is known about relationships between different biases. The purpose of the present study was to assess if attentional bias is causally related to memory bias. 71 participants were randomly assigned to a control (n = 37) or attentional training group (n = 34). The attentional manipulation was followed by an explicit, intentional memory task during which novel neutral, negative, and positive words were presented. It was found that individuals with elevated depression score trained to orient away from negative words did not display a memory bias for negative words (adjectives) whereas similar individuals displayed this memory bias in the control condition. Generalization of the findings is limited because of the short study time frame and specific nature of the memory task. These results indicate that altering attentional bias can influence elaborative processing of emotional material and that this bias could be one of the causes of mood congruent memory in depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning to Observe Young Children in a Bilingual-Multicultural Environment. Bilingual/Bicultural Child Development Associate Pilot Project: Module I.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Joyce H.

This Child Development Associate (CDA) training module, the first in a series of 16, provides a course in child behavior observation and systematic recordkeeping skills for bilingual/bicultural preschool teacher trainees. Exercises in observation are designed to lead the trainee from biased ways of looking at children to the use of techniques of…

A model for codon position bias in RNA editing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bundschuh, Ralf; Liu, Tsunglin

2006-03-01

RNA editing can be crucial for the expression of genetic information via inserting, deleting, or substituting a few nucleotides at specific positions in an RNA sequence. Within coding regions in an RNA sequence, editing usually occurs with a certain bias in choosing the positions of the editing sites. In the mitochondrial genes of Physarum polycephalum, many more editing events have been observed at the third codon position than at the first and second, while in some plant mitochondria the second codon position dominates. Here we propose an evolutionary model that explains this bias as the basis of selection at the protein level. The model predicts a distribution of the three positions rather close to the experimental observation in Physarum. This suggests that the codon position bias in Physarum is mainly a consequence of selection at the protein level.

Stimulus- and state-dependence of systematic bias in spatial attention: additive effects of stimulus-size and time-on-task.

PubMed

Benwell, Christopher S Y; Harvey, Monika; Gardner, Stephanie; Thut, Gregor

2013-03-01

Systematic biases in spatial attention are a common finding. In the general population, a systematic leftward bias is typically observed (pseudoneglect), possibly as a consequence of right hemisphere dominance for visuospatial attention. However, this leftward bias can cross-over to a systematic rightward bias with changes in stimulus and state factors (such as line length and arousal). The processes governing these changes are still unknown. Here we tested models of spatial attention as to their ability to account for these effects. To this end, we experimentally manipulated both stimulus and state factors, while healthy participants performed a computerized version of a landmark task. State was manipulated by time-on-task (>1 h) leading to increased fatigue and a reliable left- to rightward shift in spatial bias. Stimulus was manipulated by presenting either long or short lines which was associated with a shift of subjective midpoint from a reliable leftward bias for long to a more rightward bias for short lines. Importantly, we found time-on-task and line length effects to be additive suggesting a common denominator for line bisection across all conditions, which is in disagreement with models that assume that bisection decisions in long and short lines are governed by distinct processes (Magnitude estimation vs Global/local distinction). Our findings emphasize the dynamic rather than static nature of spatial biases in midline judgement. They are best captured by theories of spatial attention positing that spatial bias is flexibly modulated, and subject to inter-hemispheric balance which can change over time or conditions to accommodate task demands or reflect fatigue. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thin-Film Module Reverse-Bias Breakdown Sites Identified by Thermal Imaging: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnston, Steven; Sulas, Dana; Guthrey, Harvey L

Thin-film module sections are stressed under reverse bias to simulate partial shading conditions. Such stresses can cause permanent damage in the form of 'wormlike' defects due to thermal runaway. When large reverse biases with limited current are applied to the cells, dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) can detect where spatially-localized breakdown initiates before thermal runaway leads to permanent damage. Predicted breakdown defect sites have been identified in both CIGS and CdTe modules using DLIT. These defects include small pinholes, craters, or voids in the absorber layer of the film that lead to built-in areas of weakness where high current densities maymore » cause thermal damage in a partial-shading event.« less

A father effect explains sex-ratio bias.

PubMed

Malo, Aurelio F; Martinez-Pastor, Felipe; Garcia-Gonzalez, Francisco; Garde, Julián; Ballou, Jonathan D; Lacy, Robert C

2017-08-30

Sex ratio allocation has important fitness consequences, and theory predicts that parents should adjust offspring sex ratio in cases where the fitness returns of producing male and female offspring vary. The ability of fathers to bias offspring sex ratios has traditionally been dismissed given the expectation of an equal proportion of X- and Y-chromosome-bearing sperm (CBS) in ejaculates due to segregation of sex chromosomes at meiosis. This expectation has been recently refuted. Here we used Peromyscus leucopus to demonstrate that sex ratio is explained by an exclusive effect of the father, and suggest a likely mechanism by which male-driven sex-ratio bias is attained. We identified a male sperm morphological marker that is associated with the mechanism leading to sex ratio bias; differences among males in the sperm nucleus area (a proxy for the sex chromosome that the sperm contains) explain 22% variation in litter sex ratio. We further show the role played by the sperm nucleus area as a mediator in the relationship between individual genetic variation and sex-ratio bias. Fathers with high levels of genetic variation had ejaculates with a higher proportion of sperm with small nuclei area. This, in turn, led to siring a higher proportion of sons (25% increase in sons per 0.1 decrease in the inbreeding coefficient). Our results reveal a plausible mechanism underlying unexplored male-driven sex-ratio biases. We also discuss why this pattern of paternal bias can be adaptive. This research puts to rest the idea that father contribution to sex ratio variation should be disregarded in vertebrates, and will stimulate research on evolutionary constraints to sex ratios-for example, whether fathers and mothers have divergent, coinciding, or neutral sex allocation interests. Finally, these results offer a potential explanation for those intriguing cases in which there are sex ratio biases, such as in humans. © 2017 The Author(s).

FIP BIAS EVOLUTION IN A DECAYING ACTIVE REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, D.; Yardley, S. L.; Driel-Gesztelyi, L. van

Solar coronal plasma composition is typically characterized by first ionization potential (FIP) bias. Using spectra obtained by Hinode’s EUV Imaging Spectrometer instrument, we present a series of large-scale, spatially resolved composition maps of active region (AR)11389. The composition maps show how FIP bias evolves within the decaying AR during the period 2012 January 4–6. Globally, FIP bias decreases throughout the AR. We analyzed areas of significant plasma composition changes within the decaying AR and found that small-scale evolution in the photospheric magnetic field is closely linked to the FIP bias evolution observed in the corona. During the AR’s decay phase,more » small bipoles emerging within supergranular cells reconnect with the pre-existing AR field, creating a pathway along which photospheric and coronal plasmas can mix. The mixing timescales are shorter than those of plasma enrichment processes. Eruptive activity also results in shifting the FIP bias closer to photospheric in the affected areas. Finally, the FIP bias still remains dominantly coronal only in a part of the AR’s high-flux density core. We conclude that in the decay phase of an AR’s lifetime, the FIP bias is becoming increasingly modulated by episodes of small-scale flux emergence, i.e., decreasing the AR’s overall FIP bias. Our results show that magnetic field evolution plays an important role in compositional changes during AR development, revealing a more complex relationship than expected from previous well-known Skylab results showing that FIP bias increases almost linearly with age in young ARs.« less

Hindsight Bias.

PubMed

Roese, Neal J; Vohs, Kathleen D

2012-09-01

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias. © The Author(s) 2012.

Exchange bias in zinc ferrite-FeNiMoB based metallic glass composite thin films

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R, Lisha; P, Geetha; B, Aravind P.

2015-06-24

The Exchange bias phenomenon and methods to manipulate the bias field in a controlled manner are thrust areas in magnetism due to its sophisticated theoretical concepts as well as advanced technological utility in the field of spintronics. The Exchange bias effect is observed as a result of ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic (FM-AFM) exchange interaction, usually observed as a loop shift on field cooling below the Neel temperature of AFM. In the present study, we have chosen zinc ferrite which is a well known antiferromagnet, and FeNiMoB based metallic glass as the ferromagnet. The films were prepared by RF sputtering technique. The thickness andmore » composition was obtained by RBS. The magnetic studies using SQUID VSM indicate exchange bias effect in the system. The effect of thermal annealing on exchange bias effect was studied. The observed exchange bias in the zinc ferrite-FeNiMoB system is not due to FM-AFM coupling but due to spin glass-ferromagnetic interaction.« less

Exchange bias in zinc ferrite-FeNiMoB based metallic glass composite thin films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R, Lisha; T, Hysen; P, Geetha; B, Aravind P.; Ojha, S.; Avasthi, D. K.; Ramanujan, R. V.; Anantharaman, M. R.

2015-06-01

The Exchange bias phenomenon and methods to manipulate the bias field in a controlled manner are thrust areas in magnetism due to its sophisticated theoretical concepts as well as advanced technological utility in the field of spintronics. The Exchange bias effect is observed as a result of ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic (FM-AFM) exchange interaction, usually observed as a loop shift on field cooling below the Neel temperature of AFM. In the present study, we have chosen zinc ferrite which is a well known antiferromagnet, and FeNiMoB based metallic glass as the ferromagnet. The films were prepared by RF sputtering technique. The thickness and composition was obtained by RBS. The magnetic studies using SQUID VSM indicate exchange bias effect in the system. The effect of thermal annealing on exchange bias effect was studied. The observed exchange bias in the zinc ferrite-FeNiMoB system is not due to FM-AFM coupling but due to spin glass-ferromagnetic interaction.

Why all randomised controlled trials produce biased results.

PubMed

Krauss, Alexander

2018-06-01

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are commonly viewed as the best research method to inform public health and social policy. Usually they are thought of as providing the most rigorous evidence of a treatment's effectiveness without strong assumptions, biases and limitations. This is the first study to examine that hypothesis by assessing the 10 most cited RCT studies worldwide. These 10 RCT studies with the highest number of citations in any journal (up to June 2016) were identified by searching Scopus (the largest database of peer-reviewed journals). This study shows that these world-leading RCTs that have influenced policy produce biased results by illustrating that participants' background traits that affect outcomes are often poorly distributed between trial groups, that the trials often neglect alternative factors contributing to their main reported outcome and, among many other issues, that the trials are often only partially blinded or unblinded. The study here also identifies a number of novel and important assumptions, biases and limitations not yet thoroughly discussed in existing studies that arise when designing, implementing and analysing trials. Researchers and policymakers need to become better aware of the broader set of assumptions, biases and limitations in trials. Journals need to also begin requiring researchers to outline them in their studies. We need to furthermore better use RCTs together with other research methods. Key messages RCTs face a range of strong assumptions, biases and limitations that have not yet all been thoroughly discussed in the literature. This study assesses the 10 most cited RCTs worldwide and shows that trials inevitably produce bias. Trials involve complex processes - from randomising, blinding and controlling, to implementing treatments, monitoring participants etc. - that require many decisions and steps at different levels that bring their own assumptions and degree of bias to results.

Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

2015-12-01

L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

Sex-biased dispersal promotes adaptive parental effects

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background In heterogeneous environments, sex-biased dispersal could lead to environmental adaptive parental effects, with offspring selected to perform in the same way as the parent dispersing least, because this parent is more likely to be locally adapted. We investigate this hypothesis by simulating varying levels of sex-biased dispersal in a patchy environment. The relative advantage of a strategy involving pure maternal (or paternal) inheritance is then compared with a strategy involving classical biparental inheritance in plants and in animals. Results We find that the advantage of the uniparental strategy over the biparental strategy is maximal when dispersal is more strongly sex-biased and when dispersal distances of the least mobile sex are much lower than the size of the environmental patches. In plants, only maternal effects can be selected for, in contrast to animals where the evolution of either paternal or maternal effects can be favoured. Moreover, the conditions for environmental adaptive maternal effects to be selected for are more easily fulfilled in plants than in animals. Conclusions The study suggests that sex-biased dispersal can help predict the direction and magnitude of environmental adaptive parental effects. However, this depends on the scale of dispersal relative to that of the environment and on the existence of appropriate mechanisms of transmission of environmentally induced traits. PMID:20637098

Understanding the role of moisture transport on the dry bias in indian monsoon simulations by CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahana, A. S.; Pathak, Amey; Roxy, M. K.; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-02-01

We analyse the bias present in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR), as simulated by Climate Forecast System Model 2 (CFSv2), the operational model used for monsoon forecasts in India. In the simulations, the precipitation intensity is redistributed within the ITCZ band with southward shifts of precipitation maxima. We observe weakening of maximum intensity of precipitation over the region between 20°N and 14°N. In the simulations by CFSv2, there exists two rain bands: the northern one located slightly southward compared to reanalysis dataset and the southern one over the equator with intensified precipitation. This results in dry bias over land and wet bias over the ocean. We use a Dynamic Recycling Model, based on Lagrangian approach, to investigate the role of various moisture sources in generating these biases. We find that, the dry bias during June exists due to the delayed monsoon onset and reduced moisture flow from the Arabian Sea. As the monsoon progresses, deficiency in the simulated contributions from South Indian Ocean becomes the key source of bias. The reduced supply of moisture from oceanic sources is primarily attributed to the weaker northward transport of moisture flux from the Southern Ocean, associated with a weaker southward energy flux. Inefficiency of the model in simulating the heating in Tibetan plateau during the pre-monsoon period leads to this reduced cross equatorial energy flow. We also find that, towards the end of monsoon season, moisture contributions from land sources namely, Ganga Basin and North-Eastern forests become significant and underestimations of the same in the simulations by CFSv2 result into biases over Central and Eastern India.

Bias, Confounding, and Interaction: Lions and Tigers, and Bears, Oh My!

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R; Mascha, Edward J

2017-09-01

Epidemiologists seek to make a valid inference about the causal effect between an exposure and a disease in a specific population, using representative sample data from a specific population. Clinical researchers likewise seek to make a valid inference about the association between an intervention and outcome(s) in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Both do so by using the available data about the sample variable to make a valid estimate about its corresponding or underlying, but unknown population parameter. Random error in an experiment can be due to the natural, periodic fluctuation or variation in the accuracy or precision of virtually any data sampling technique or health measurement tool or scale. In a clinical research study, random error can be due to not only innate human variability but also purely chance. Systematic error in an experiment arises from an innate flaw in the data sampling technique or measurement instrument. In the clinical research setting, systematic error is more commonly referred to as systematic bias. The most commonly encountered types of bias in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain medicine research include recall bias, observational bias (Hawthorne effect), attrition bias, misclassification or informational bias, and selection bias. A confounding variable is a factor associated with both the exposure of interest and the outcome of interest. A confounding variable (confounding factor or confounder) is a variable that correlates (positively or negatively) with both the exposure and outcome. Confounding is typically not an issue in a randomized trial because the randomized groups are sufficiently balanced on all potential confounding variables, both observed and nonobserved. However, confounding can be a major problem with any observational (nonrandomized) study. Ignoring confounding in an observational study will often result in a "distorted" or incorrect estimate of

Interior renovation of a general practitioner office leads to a perceptual bias on patient experience for over one year.

PubMed

Gauthey, Jérôme; Tièche, Raphaël; Streit, Sven

2018-01-01

Measuring patient experience is key when assessing quality of care but can be biased: A perceptual bias occurs when renovations of the interior design of a general practitioner (GP) office improves how patients assessed quality of care. The aim was to assess the length of perceptual bias and if it could be reproduced after a second renovation. A GP office with 2 GPs in Switzerland was renovated twice within 3 years. We assessed patient experience at baseline, 2 months and 14 months after the first and 3 months after the second renovation. Each time, we invited a sample of 180 consecutive patients that anonymously graded patient experience in 4 domains: appearance of the office; qualities of medical assistants and GPs; and general satisfaction. We compared crude mean scores per domain from baseline until follow-up. In a multivariate model, we adjusted for patient's age, gender and for how long patients had been their GP. At baseline, patients aged 60.9 (17.7) years, 52% females. After the first renovation, we found a regression to the baseline level of patient experience after 14 months except for appearance of the office (p<0.001). After the second renovation, patient experience improved again in appearance of the office (p = 0.008), qualities of the GP (p = 0.008), and general satisfaction (p = 0.014). Qualities of the medical assistant showed a slight improvement (p = 0.068). Results were unchanged in the multivariate model. Interior renovation of a GP office probably causes a perceptual bias for >1 year that improves how patients rate quality of care. This bias could be reproduced after a second renovation strengthening a possible causal relationship. These findings imply to appropriately time measurement of patient experience to at least one year after interior renovation of GP practices to avoid environmental changes influences the estimates when measuring patient experience.

GRADE guidelines: 5. Rating the quality of evidence--publication bias.

PubMed

Guyatt, Gordon H; Oxman, Andrew D; Montori, Victor; Vist, Gunn; Kunz, Regina; Brozek, Jan; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Djulbegovic, Ben; Atkins, David; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Williams, John W; Meerpohl, Joerg; Norris, Susan L; Akl, Elie A; Schünemann, Holger J

2011-12-01

In the GRADE approach, randomized trials start as high-quality evidence and observational studies as low-quality evidence, but both can be rated down if a body of evidence is associated with a high risk of publication bias. Even when individual studies included in best-evidence summaries have a low risk of bias, publication bias can result in substantial overestimates of effect. Authors should suspect publication bias when available evidence comes from a number of small studies, most of which have been commercially funded. A number of approaches based on examination of the pattern of data are available to help assess publication bias. The most popular of these is the funnel plot; all, however, have substantial limitations. Publication bias is likely frequent, and caution in the face of early results, particularly with small sample size and number of events, is warranted. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the

Eliminating Bias

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Learn how to eliminate bias from monitoring systems by instituting appropriate installation, operation, and quality assurance procedures. Provides links to download An Operator's Guide to Eliminating Bias in CEM Systems.

Characterization of Hard Piezoelectric Lead-Free Ceramics

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shujun; Lim, Jong Bong; Lee, Hyeong Jae; Shrout, Thomas R.

2010-01-01

K4CuNb8O23 doped K0.45Na0.55NbO3 (KNN-KCN) ferroelectric ceramics were found to exhibit asymmetrical polarization hysteresis loops, related to the development of an internal bias field. The internal bias field is believed to be the result of defect dipoles of acceptor ions and oxygen vacancies, which lead to piezoelectric “hardening” effect, by stabilizing and pinning of the domain wall motion. The dielectric loss for the hard lead-free piezoelectric ceramic was found to be 0.6%, with mechanical quality factors Q on the order of >1500. Furthermore, the piezoelectric properties were found to decrease and the coercive field increased, when compared with the undoped material, exhibiting a typical characteristic of “hard” behavior. The temperature usage range was limited by the polymorphic phase transition temperature, being 188°C. The full set of material constants was determined for the KNN-KCN materials. Compared with conventional hard PZT ceramics, the lead-free possessed lower dielectric and piezoelectric properties; however, comparable values of mechanical Q, dielectric loss, and coercive fields were obtained, making acceptor modified KNN based lead-free piezoelectric material promising for high-power applications, where lead-free materials are desirable. PMID:19686966

Structural insights into biased G protein-coupled receptor signaling revealed by fluorescence spectroscopy.

PubMed

Rahmeh, Rita; Damian, Marjorie; Cottet, Martin; Orcel, Hélène; Mendre, Christiane; Durroux, Thierry; Sharma, K Shivaji; Durand, Grégory; Pucci, Bernard; Trinquet, Eric; Zwier, Jurriaan M; Deupi, Xavier; Bron, Patrick; Banères, Jean-Louis; Mouillac, Bernard; Granier, Sébastien

2012-04-24

G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) are seven-transmembrane proteins that mediate most cellular responses to hormones and neurotransmitters, representing the largest group of therapeutic targets. Recent studies show that some GPCRs signal through both G protein and arrestin pathways in a ligand-specific manner. Ligands that direct signaling through a specific pathway are known as biased ligands. The arginine-vasopressin type 2 receptor (V2R), a prototypical peptide-activated GPCR, is an ideal model system to investigate the structural basis of biased signaling. Although the native hormone arginine-vasopressin leads to activation of both the stimulatory G protein (Gs) for the adenylyl cyclase and arrestin pathways, synthetic ligands exhibit highly biased signaling through either Gs alone or arrestin alone. We used purified V2R stabilized in neutral amphipols and developed fluorescence-based assays to investigate the structural basis of biased signaling for the V2R. Our studies demonstrate that the Gs-biased agonist stabilizes a conformation that is distinct from that stabilized by the arrestin-biased agonists. This study provides unique insights into the structural mechanisms of GPCR activation by biased ligands that may be relevant to the design of pathway-biased drugs.

Sex Bias and Maternal Contribution to Gene Expression Divergence in Drosophila Blastoderm Embryos

PubMed Central

Paris, Mathilde; Villalta, Jacqueline E.; Eisen, Michael B.; Lott, Susan E.

2015-01-01

Early embryogenesis is a unique developmental stage where genetic control of development is handed off from mother to zygote. Yet the contribution of this transition to the evolution of gene expression is poorly understood. Here we study two aspects of gene expression specific to early embryogenesis in Drosophila: sex-biased gene expression prior to the onset of canonical X chromosomal dosage compensation, and the contribution of maternally supplied mRNAs. We sequenced mRNAs from individual unfertilized eggs and precisely staged and sexed blastoderm embryos, and compared levels between D. melanogaster, D. yakuba, D. pseudoobscura and D. virilis. First, we find that mRNA content is highly conserved for a given stage and that studies relying on pooled embryos likely systematically overstate the degree of gene expression divergence. Unlike studies done on larvae and adults where most species show a larger proportion of genes with male-biased expression, we find that transcripts in Drosophila embryos are largely female-biased in all species, likely due to incomplete dosage compensation prior to the activation of the canonical dosage compensation mechanism. The divergence of sex-biased gene expression across species is observed to be often due to lineage-specific decrease of expression; the most drastic example of which is the overall reduction of male expression from the neo-X chromosome in D. pseudoobscura, leading to a pervasive female-bias on this chromosome. We see no evidence for a faster evolution of expression on the X chromosome in embryos (no “faster-X” effect), unlike in adults, and contrary to a previous study on pooled non-sexed embryos. Finally, we find that most genes are conserved in regard to their maternal or zygotic origin of transcription, and present evidence that differences in maternal contribution to the blastoderm transcript pool may be due to species-specific divergence of transcript degradation rates. PMID:26485701

Attentional bias for craving-related (chocolate) food cues.

PubMed

Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

2009-12-01

In this study, we investigated attentional biases for craving-related food cues. A pictorial dot probe task was used to assess selective attentional processing of one particular highly desired food, namely chocolate, relative to that of other highly desired foods. In Experiment 1, we examined biased processing of chocolate cues in habitual (trait) chocolate cravers, whereas in Experiment 2 we investigated the effect of experimentally induced (state) chocolate cravings on such processing. As predicted, habitual chocolate cravers (Experiment 1) and individuals in whom a craving for chocolate was temporarily induced (Experiment 2) showed speeded detection of probes replacing chocolate-related pictures, demonstrating an attentional bias for chocolate cues. Subsequent examination indicated that in both experiments the observed attentional biases stemmed from difficulty in disengaging attention from chocolate cues rather than from a shift of attention toward such cues. The findings have important theoretical and practical implications.

Bias to CMB lensing reconstruction from temperature anisotropies due to large-scale galaxy motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, Simone; Hill, J. Colin

2018-01-01

Gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) is expected to be amongst the most powerful cosmological tools for ongoing and upcoming CMB experiments. In this work, we investigate a bias to CMB lensing reconstruction from temperature anisotropies due to the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect, that is, the Doppler shift of CMB photons induced by Compton scattering off moving electrons. The kSZ signal yields biases due to both its own intrinsic non-Gaussianity and its nonzero cross-correlation with the CMB lensing field (and other fields that trace the large-scale structure). This kSZ-induced bias affects both the CMB lensing autopower spectrum and its cross-correlation with low-redshift tracers. Furthermore, it cannot be removed by multifrequency foreground separation techniques because the kSZ effect preserves the blackbody spectrum of the CMB. While statistically negligible for current data sets, we show that it will be important for upcoming surveys, and failure to account for it can lead to large biases in constraints on neutrino masses or the properties of dark energy. For a stage 4 CMB experiment, the bias can be as large as ≈15 % or 12% in cross-correlation with LSST galaxy lensing convergence or galaxy overdensity maps, respectively, when the maximum temperature multipole used in the reconstruction is ℓmax=4000 , and about half of that when ℓmax=3000 . Similarly, we find that the CMB lensing autopower spectrum can be biased by up to several percent. These biases are many times larger than the expected statistical errors. We validate our analytical predictions with cosmological simulations and present the first complete estimate of secondary-induced CMB lensing biases. The predicted bias is sensitive to the small-scale gas distribution, which is affected by pressure and feedback mechanisms, thus making removal via "bias-hardened" estimators challenging. Reducing ℓmax can significantly mitigate the bias at the cost of a decrease

Bias Adjusted Precipitation Threat Scores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesinger, F.

2008-04-01

Among the wide variety of performance measures available for the assessment of skill of deterministic precipitation forecasts, the equitable threat score (ETS) might well be the one used most frequently. It is typically used in conjunction with the bias score. However, apart from its mathematical definition the meaning of the ETS is not clear. It has been pointed out (Mason, 1989; Hamill, 1999) that forecasts with a larger bias tend to have a higher ETS. Even so, the present author has not seen this having been accounted for in any of numerous papers that in recent years have used the ETS along with bias "as a measure of forecast accuracy". A method to adjust the threat score (TS) or the ETS so as to arrive at their values that correspond to unit bias in order to show the model's or forecaster's accuracy in placing precipitation has been proposed earlier by the present author (Mesinger and Brill, the so-called dH/dF method). A serious deficiency however has since been noted with the dH/dF method in that the hypothetical function that it arrives at to interpolate or extrapolate the observed value of hits to unit bias can have values of hits greater than forecast when the forecast area tends to zero. Another method is proposed here based on the assumption that the increase in hits per unit increase in false alarms is proportional to the yet unhit area. This new method removes the deficiency of the dH/dF method. Examples of its performance for 12 months of forecasts by three NCEP operational models are given.

The Other Side of Method Bias: The Perils of Distinct Source Research Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kammeyer-Mueller, John; Steel, Piers D. G.; Rubenstein, Alex

2010-01-01

Common source bias has been the focus of much attention. To minimize the problem, researchers have sometimes been advised to take measurements of predictors from one observer and measurements of outcomes from another observer or to use separate occasions of measurement. We propose that these efforts to eliminate biases due to common source…

Testing the Large-scale Environments of Cool-core and Non-cool-core Clusters with Clustering Bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medezinski, Elinor; Battaglia, Nicholas; Coupon, Jean; Cen, Renyue; Gaspari, Massimo; Strauss, Michael A.; Spergel, David N.

2017-02-01

There are well-observed differences between cool-core (CC) and non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, but the origin of this distinction is still largely unknown. Competing theories can be divided into internal (inside-out), in which internal physical processes transform or maintain the NCC phase, and external (outside-in), in which the cluster type is determined by its initial conditions, which in turn leads to different formation histories (I.e., assembly bias). We propose a new method that uses the relative assembly bias of CC to NCC clusters, as determined via the two-point cluster-galaxy cross-correlation function (CCF), to test whether formation history plays a role in determining their nature. We apply our method to 48 ACCEPT clusters, which have well resolved central entropies, and cross-correlate with the SDSS-III/BOSS LOWZ galaxy catalog. We find that the relative bias of NCC over CC clusters is b = 1.42 ± 0.35 (1.6σ different from unity). Our measurement is limited by the small number of clusters with core entropy information within the BOSS footprint, 14 CC and 34 NCC clusters. Future compilations of X-ray cluster samples, combined with deep all-sky redshift surveys, will be able to better constrain the relative assembly bias of CC and NCC clusters and determine the origin of the bimodality.

Testing the Large-scale Environments of Cool-core and Non-cool-core Clusters with Clustering Bias

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Medezinski, Elinor; Battaglia, Nicholas; Cen, Renyue

2017-02-10

There are well-observed differences between cool-core (CC) and non-cool-core (NCC) clusters, but the origin of this distinction is still largely unknown. Competing theories can be divided into internal (inside-out), in which internal physical processes transform or maintain the NCC phase, and external (outside-in), in which the cluster type is determined by its initial conditions, which in turn leads to different formation histories (i.e., assembly bias). We propose a new method that uses the relative assembly bias of CC to NCC clusters, as determined via the two-point cluster-galaxy cross-correlation function (CCF), to test whether formation history plays a role in determiningmore » their nature. We apply our method to 48 ACCEPT clusters, which have well resolved central entropies, and cross-correlate with the SDSS-III/BOSS LOWZ galaxy catalog. We find that the relative bias of NCC over CC clusters is b = 1.42 ± 0.35 (1.6 σ different from unity). Our measurement is limited by the small number of clusters with core entropy information within the BOSS footprint, 14 CC and 34 NCC clusters. Future compilations of X-ray cluster samples, combined with deep all-sky redshift surveys, will be able to better constrain the relative assembly bias of CC and NCC clusters and determine the origin of the bimodality.« less

Oestrous phase cyclicity influences judgment biasing in rats.

PubMed

Barker, Timothy Hugh; Kind, Karen Lee; Groves, Peta Danielle; Howarth, Gordon Stanley; Whittaker, Alexandra Louise

2018-04-10

The identification of cognitive bias has become an important measure of animal welfare. Negative cognitive biases develop from a tendency for animals to process novel information pessimistically. Judgment-bias testing is the commonplace methodology to detect cognitive biases. However, concerns with these methods have been frequently-reported; one of which being the discrepancy between male and female cognitive expression. The current study assessed the factors of social status and oestrus, to investigate whether oestrous cycle rotation, or subordination stress encouraged an increase in pessimistic responses. Female Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 24) were trained on an active-choice judgment bias paradigm. Responses to the ambiguous probe were recorded as optimistic or pessimistic. Oestrous phase was determined by assessing vaginal cytology in stained vaginal cell smears. Rats in the dioestrous phase and those rats considered to be subordinate demonstrated an increased percentage of pessimistic responses. However, no interaction between these factors was observed. This suggests that oestrous cyclicity can influence the judgment biases of female animals; a previously unreported finding. On this basis, researchers should be encouraged to account for both oestrous phase cyclicity and social status as an additional fixed effect in study design. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimistic Biases in Observational Learning of Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicolle, A.; Symmonds, M.; Dolan, R. J.

2011-01-01

Action-outcome contingencies can be learnt either by active trial-and-error, or vicariously, by observing the outcomes of actions performed by others. The extant literature is ambiguous as to which of these modes of learning is more effective, as controlled comparisons of operant and observational learning are rare. Here, we contrasted human…

Magnification bias as a novel probe for primordial magnetic fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Camera, S.; Fedeli, C.; Moscardini, L., E-mail: stefano.camera@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: cosimo.fedeli@oabo.inaf.it, E-mail: lauro.moscardini@unibo.it

2014-03-01

In this paper we investigate magnetic fields generated in the early Universe. These fields are important candidates at explaining the origin of astrophysical magnetism observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters, whose genesis is still by and large unclear. Compared to the standard inflationary power spectrum, intermediate to small scales would experience further substantial matter clustering, were a cosmological magnetic field present prior to recombination. As a consequence, the bias and redshift distribution of galaxies would also be modified. Hitherto, primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) have been tested and constrained with a number of cosmological observables, e.g. the cosmic microwave background radiation,more » galaxy clustering and, more recently, weak gravitational lensing. Here, we explore the constraining potential of the density fluctuation bias induced by gravitational lensing magnification onto the galaxy-galaxy angular power spectrum. Such an effect is known as magnification bias. Compared to the usual galaxy clustering approach, magnification bias helps in lifting the pathological degeneracy present amongst power spectrum normalisation and galaxy bias. This is because magnification bias cross-correlates galaxy number density fluctuations of nearby objects with weak lensing distortions of high-redshift sources. Thus, it takes advantage of the gravitational deflection of light, which is insensitive to galaxy bias but powerful in constraining the density fluctuation amplitude. To scrutinise the potentiality of this method, we adopt a deep and wide-field spectroscopic galaxy survey. We show that magnification bias does contain important information on primordial magnetism, which will be useful in combination with galaxy clustering and shear. We find we shall be able to rule out at 95.4% CL amplitudes of PMFs larger than 5 × 10{sup −4} nG for values of the PMF power spectral index n{sub B} ∼ 0.« less

Detecting and removing multiplicative spatial bias in high-throughput screening technologies.

PubMed

Caraus, Iurie; Mazoure, Bogdan; Nadon, Robert; Makarenkov, Vladimir

2017-10-15

Considerable attention has been paid recently to improve data quality in high-throughput screening (HTS) and high-content screening (HCS) technologies widely used in drug development and chemical toxicity research. However, several environmentally- and procedurally-induced spatial biases in experimental HTS and HCS screens decrease measurement accuracy, leading to increased numbers of false positives and false negatives in hit selection. Although effective bias correction methods and software have been developed over the past decades, almost all of these tools have been designed to reduce the effect of additive bias only. Here, we address the case of multiplicative spatial bias. We introduce three new statistical methods meant to reduce multiplicative spatial bias in screening technologies. We assess the performance of the methods with synthetic and real data affected by multiplicative spatial bias, including comparisons with current bias correction methods. We also describe a wider data correction protocol that integrates methods for removing both assay and plate-specific spatial biases, which can be either additive or multiplicative. The methods for removing multiplicative spatial bias and the data correction protocol are effective in detecting and cleaning experimental data generated by screening technologies. As our protocol is of a general nature, it can be used by researchers analyzing current or next-generation high-throughput screens. The AssayCorrector program, implemented in R, is available on CRAN. makarenkov.vladimir@uqam.ca. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

A systematic review of context bias in invasion biology.

PubMed

Warren, Robert J; King, Joshua R; Tarsa, Charlene; Haas, Brian; Henderson, Jeremy

2017-01-01

The language that scientists use to frame biological invasions may reveal inherent bias-including how data are interpreted. A frequent critique of invasion biology is the use of value-laden language that may indicate context bias. Here we use a systematic study of language and interpretation in papers drawn from invasion biology to evaluate whether there is a link between the framing of papers and the interpretation of results. We also examine any trends in context bias in biological invasion research. We examined 651 peer-reviewed invasive species competition studies and implemented a rigorous systematic review to examine bias in the presentation and interpretation of native and invasive competition in invasion biology. We predicted that bias in the presentation of invasive species is increasing, as suggested by several authors, and that bias against invasive species would result in misinterpreting their competitive dominance in correlational observational studies compared to causative experimental studies. We indeed found evidence of bias in the presentation and interpretation of invasive species research; authors often introduced research with invasive species in a negative context and study results were interpreted against invasive species more in correlational studies. However, we also found a distinct decrease in those biases since the mid-2000s. Given that there have been several waves of criticism from scientists both inside and outside invasion biology, our evidence suggests that the subdiscipline has somewhat self-corrected apparent biases.

Cognitive and neural mechanisms of decision biases in recognition memory.

PubMed

Windmann, Sabine; Urbach, Thomas P; Kutas, Marta

2002-08-01

In recognition memory tasks, stimuli can be classified as "old" either on the basis of accurate memory or a bias to respond "old", yet bias has received little attention in the cognitive neuroscience literature. Here we examined the pattern and timing of bias-related effects in event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to determine whether the bias is linked more to memory retrieval or to response verification processes. Participants were divided into a High Bias and a Low Bias group according to their bias to respond "old". These groups did not differ in recognition accuracy or in the ERP pattern to items that actually were old versus new (Objective Old/New Effect). However, when the old/new distinction was based on each subject's perspective, i.e. when items judged "old" were compared with those judged "new" (Subjective Old/New Effect), significant group differences were observed over prefrontal sites with a timing (300-500 ms poststimulus) more consistent with bias acting early on memory retrieval processes than on post-retrieval response verification processes. In the standard old/new effect (Hits vs Correct Rejections), these group differences were intermediate to those for the Objective and the Subjective comparisons, indicating that such comparisons are confounded by response bias. We propose that these biases are top-down controlled processes mediated by prefrontal cortex areas.

Expectancy bias mediates the link between social anxiety and memory bias for social evaluation

PubMed Central

Caouette, Justin D.; Ruiz, Sarah K.; Lee, Clinton C.; Anbari, Zainab; Schriber, Roberta A.; Guyer, Amanda E.

2014-01-01

Social anxiety (SA) involves a multitude of cognitive symptoms related to fear of evaluation, including expectancy and memory biases. We examined whether memory biases are influenced by expectancy biases for social feedback in SA. We hypothesized that, faced with a socially evaluative event, people with higher SA would show a negative expectancy bias for future feedback. Furthermore, we predicted that memory bias for feedback in SA would be mediated by expectancy bias. Ninety-four undergraduate students (55 women, mean age = 19.76 years) underwent a two-visit task that measured expectations about (Visit 1) and memory of (Visit 2) feedback from unknown peers. Results showed that higher levels of SA were associated with negative expectancy bias. An indirect relationship was found between SA and memory bias that was mediated by expectancy bias. The results suggest that expectancy biases are in the causal path from SA to negative memory biases for social evaluation. PMID:25252925

Forward-biased nanophotonic detector for ultralow-energy dissipation receiver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nozaki, Kengo; Matsuo, Shinji; Fujii, Takuro; Takeda, Koji; Shinya, Akihiko; Kuramochi, Eiichi; Notomi, Masaya

2018-04-01

Generally, reverse-biased photodetectors (PDs) are used for high-speed optical receivers. The forward voltage region is only utilized in solar-cells, and this photovoltaic operation would not be concurrently obtained with high efficiency and high speed operation. Here we report that photonic-crystal waveguide PDs enable forward-biased high-speed operation at 40 Gbit/s with keeping high responsivity (0.88 A/W). Within our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of the forward-biased PDs with high responsivity. This achievement is attributed to the ultracompactness of our PD and the strong light confinement within the absorber and depleted regions, thereby enabling efficient photo-carrier generation and fast extraction. This result indicates that it is possible to construct a high-speed and ultracompact photo-receiver without an electrical amplifier nor an external bias circuit. Since there is no electrical energy required, our estimation shows that the consumption energy is just the optical energy of the injected signal pulse which is about 1 fJ/bit. Hence, it will lead to an ultimately efficient and highly integrable optical-to-electrical converter in a chip, which will be a key ingredient for dense nanophotonic communication and processors.

A ubiquitous ice size bias in simulations of tropical deep convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanford, McKenna W.; Varble, Adam; Zipser, Ed; Strapp, J. Walter; Leroy, Delphine; Schwarzenboeck, Alfons; Potts, Rodney; Protat, Alain

2017-08-01

The High Altitude Ice Crystals - High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) joint field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC), hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs), and vertical velocity (w) in high ice water content regions of mature and decaying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). The resulting dataset is used here to explore causes of the commonly documented high bias in radar reflectivity within cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection. This bias has been linked to overly strong simulated convective updrafts lofting excessive condensate mass but is also modulated by parameterizations of hydrometeor size distributions, single particle properties, species separation, and microphysical processes. Observations are compared with three Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an observed MCS using different microphysics parameterizations while controlling for w, TWC, and temperature. Two popular bulk microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison) and one bin microphysics scheme (fast spectral bin microphysics) are compared. For temperatures between -10 and -40 °C and TWC > 1 g m-3, all microphysics schemes produce median mass diameters (MMDs) that are generally larger than observed, and the precipitating ice species that controls this size bias varies by scheme, temperature, and w. Despite a much greater number of samples, all simulations fail to reproduce observed high-TWC conditions ( > 2 g m-3) between -20 and -40 °C in which only a small fraction of condensate mass is found in relatively large particle sizes greater than 1 mm in diameter. Although more mass is distributed to large particle sizes relative to those observed across all schemes when controlling for temperature, w, and TWC, differences with observations are significantly variable between the schemes tested. As a result, this bias is hypothesized to partly result from errors in parameterized hydrometeor PSD and single particle

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Yao-Yuan; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

2018-03-01

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as `assembly bias', is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. This results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

Using Propensity Scores to Reduce Selection Bias in Mathematics Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graham, Suzanne E.

2010-01-01

Selection bias is a problem for mathematics education researchers interested in using observational rather than experimental data to make causal inferences about the effects of different instructional methods in mathematics on student outcomes. Propensity score methods represent 1 approach to dealing with such selection bias. This article…

Adjustment of Cell-Type Composition Minimizes Systematic Bias in Blood DNA Methylation Profiles Derived by DNA Collection Protocols

PubMed Central

Shiwa, Yuh; Hachiya, Tsuyoshi; Furukawa, Ryohei; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Kudo, Hisaaki; Hata, Jun; Hozawa, Atsushi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Matsuda, Koichi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Tanno, Kozo; Yamaji, Taiki; Wakai, Kenji; Hitomi, Jiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2016-01-01

Differences in DNA collection protocols may be a potential confounder in epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) using a large number of blood specimens from multiple biobanks and/or cohorts. Here we show that pre-analytical procedures involved in DNA collection can induce systematic bias in the DNA methylation profiles of blood cells that can be adjusted by cell-type composition variables. In Experiment 1, whole blood from 16 volunteers was collected to examine the effect of a 24 h storage period at 4°C on DNA methylation profiles as measured using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Our statistical analysis showed that the P-value distribution of more than 450,000 CpG sites was similar to the theoretical distribution (in quantile-quantile plot, λ = 1.03) when comparing two control replicates, which was remarkably deviated from the theoretical distribution (λ = 1.50) when comparing control and storage conditions. We then considered cell-type composition as a possible cause of the observed bias in DNA methylation profiles and found that the bias associated with the cold storage condition was largely decreased (λadjusted = 1.14) by taking into account a cell-type composition variable. As such, we compared four respective sample collection protocols used in large-scale Japanese biobanks or cohorts as well as two control replicates. Systematic biases in DNA methylation profiles were observed between control and three of four protocols without adjustment of cell-type composition (λ = 1.12–1.45) and no remarkable biases were seen after adjusting for cell-type composition in all four protocols (λadjusted = 1.00–1.17). These results revealed important implications for comparing DNA methylation profiles between blood specimens from different sources and may lead to discovery of disease-associated DNA methylation markers and the development of DNA methylation profile-based predictive risk models. PMID:26799745

Adjustment of Cell-Type Composition Minimizes Systematic Bias in Blood DNA Methylation Profiles Derived by DNA Collection Protocols.

PubMed

Shiwa, Yuh; Hachiya, Tsuyoshi; Furukawa, Ryohei; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Kudo, Hisaaki; Hata, Jun; Hozawa, Atsushi; Iwasaki, Motoki; Matsuda, Koichi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Tanno, Kozo; Yamaji, Taiki; Wakai, Kenji; Hitomi, Jiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2016-01-01

Differences in DNA collection protocols may be a potential confounder in epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) using a large number of blood specimens from multiple biobanks and/or cohorts. Here we show that pre-analytical procedures involved in DNA collection can induce systematic bias in the DNA methylation profiles of blood cells that can be adjusted by cell-type composition variables. In Experiment 1, whole blood from 16 volunteers was collected to examine the effect of a 24 h storage period at 4°C on DNA methylation profiles as measured using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Our statistical analysis showed that the P-value distribution of more than 450,000 CpG sites was similar to the theoretical distribution (in quantile-quantile plot, λ = 1.03) when comparing two control replicates, which was remarkably deviated from the theoretical distribution (λ = 1.50) when comparing control and storage conditions. We then considered cell-type composition as a possible cause of the observed bias in DNA methylation profiles and found that the bias associated with the cold storage condition was largely decreased (λ adjusted = 1.14) by taking into account a cell-type composition variable. As such, we compared four respective sample collection protocols used in large-scale Japanese biobanks or cohorts as well as two control replicates. Systematic biases in DNA methylation profiles were observed between control and three of four protocols without adjustment of cell-type composition (λ = 1.12-1.45) and no remarkable biases were seen after adjusting for cell-type composition in all four protocols (λ adjusted = 1.00-1.17). These results revealed important implications for comparing DNA methylation profiles between blood specimens from different sources and may lead to discovery of disease-associated DNA methylation markers and the development of DNA methylation profile-based predictive risk models.

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

PubMed

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1974-09-27

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

The others: our biased perspective of eukaryotic genomes

PubMed Central

del Campo, Javier; Sieracki, Michael E.; Molestina, Robert; Keeling, Patrick; Massana, Ramon; Ruiz-Trillo, Iñaki

2015-01-01

Understanding the origin and evolution of the eukaryotic cell and the full diversity of eukaryotes is relevant to many biological disciplines. However, our current understanding of eukaryotic genomes is extremely biased, leading to a skewed view of eukaryotic biology. We argue that a phylogeny-driven initiative to cover the full eukaryotic diversity is needed to overcome this bias. We encourage the community: (i) to sequence a representative of the neglected groups available at public culture collections, (ii) to increase our culturing efforts, and (iii) to embrace single cell genomics to access organisms refractory to propagation in culture. We hope that the community will welcome this proposal, explore the approaches suggested, and join efforts to sequence the full diversity of eukaryotes. PMID:24726347

This meeting: A biased observer's view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiles, Carl

1992-06-01

Letting yourself be nominated for a conference summary talk is considered by some to be a big mistake. It eliminates the possibility of making up the sleep lost at night, while partying, during the day, while sitting in the talks. It even forces you to look at all the poster papers. But at a meeting like this, with the wealth of observational data, it is definitely not a mistake: it was even worth missing some of the parties! My problem was to devise a way to be sufficiently selective so as to provide a reasonably coherent summary. I chose to emphasize the multitude of large-scale maps presented at the meeting. Many are relevant to the ``worm paradigm'' (Sec. 2), and the recent γ-ray and ROSAT results are relevant to the Hot Ionized Medium (Sec. 3). And finally, I was impressed by a number of well-crafted smaller-scale observations, which elucidate particular aspects of the interstellar medium (Sec. 4).

This meeting: A biased observer's view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heiles, Carl

Letting yourself be nominated for a conference summary talk is considered by some to be a big mistake. It eliminates the possibility of making up the sleep lost at night, while partying, during the day, while sitting in the talks. It even forces you to look at all the poster papers. But at a meeting like this, with the wealth of observational data, it is definitely not a mistake: it was even worth missing some of the parties! My problem was to devise a way to be sufficiently selective so as to provide a reasonably coherent summary. I chose to emphasize the multitude of large-scale maps presented at the meeting. Many are relevant to the ``worm paradigm'' (Sec. 2), and the recent γ-ray and ROSAT results are relevant to the Hot Ionized Medium (Sec. 3). And finally, I was impressed by a number of well-crafted smaller-scale observations, which elucidate particular aspects of the interstellar medium (Sec. 4).

Effect of Malmquist bias on correlation studies with IRAS data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verter, Frances

1993-01-01

The relationships between galaxy properties in the sample of Trinchieri et al. (1989) are reexamined with corrections for Malmquist bias. The linear correlations are tested and linear regressions are fit for log-log plots of L(FIR), L(H-alpha), and L(B) as well as ratios of these quantities. The linear correlations for Malmquist bias are corrected using the method of Verter (1988), in which each galaxy observation is weighted by the inverse of its sampling volume. The linear regressions are corrected for Malmquist bias by a new method invented here in which each galaxy observation is weighted by its sampling volume. The results of correlation and regressions among the sample are significantly changed in the anticipated sense that the corrected correlation confidences are lower and the corrected slopes of the linear regressions are lower. The elimination of Malmquist bias eliminates the nonlinear rise in luminosity that has caused some authors to hypothesize additional components of FIR emission.

Discerning bias in forensic psychological reports in insanity cases.

PubMed

Neal, Tess M S

2018-04-19

This project began as an attempt to develop systematic, measurable indicators of bias in written forensic mental health evaluations focused on the issue of insanity. Although forensic clinicians observed in this study did vary systematically in their report-writing behaviors on several of the indicators of interest, the data are most useful in demonstrating how and why bias is hard to ferret out. Naturalistic data were used in this project (i.e., 122 real forensic insanity reports), which in some ways is a strength. However, given the nature of bias and the problem of inferring whether a particular judgment is biased, naturalistic data also made arriving at conclusions about bias difficult. This paper describes the nature of bias - including why it is a special problem in insanity evaluations - and why it is hard to study and document. It details the efforts made in an attempt to find systematic indicators of potential bias, and how this effort was successful in part, but also how and why it failed. The lessons these efforts yield for future research are described. We close with a discussion of the limitations of this study and future directions for work in this area. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

PubMed Central

Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

2014-01-01

Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

Calculations of Exchange Bias in Thin Films with Ferromagnetic/Antiferromagnetic Interfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koon, N. C.

1997-06-01

A microscopic explanation of exchange bias in thin films with compensated ferro/antiferromagnetic interfaces is presented. Full micromagnetic calculations show the interfacial exchange coupling to be relatively strong with a perpendicular orientation between the ferro/antiferromagnetic axis directions, similar to the classic ``spin-flop'' state in bulk antiferromagnets. With reasonable parameters the calculations predict bias fields comparable to those observed and provide a possible explanation for both anomalous high field rotational hysteresis and recently discovered ``positive'' exchange bias.

Intelligence, competitive altruism, and "clever silliness" may underlie bias in academe.

PubMed

Madison, Guy; Dutton, Edward; Stern, Charlotta

2017-01-01

Why is social bias and its depressing effects on low-status or low-performing groups exaggerated? We show that the higher intelligence of academics has at best a very weak effect on reducing their bias, facilitates superficially justifying their biases, and may make them better at understanding the benefits of social conformity in general and competitive altruism specifically. We foresee a surge in research examining these mechanisms and recommend, meanwhile, reviving and better observing scientific ideals.

Development of heuristic bias detection in elementary school.

PubMed

De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

2013-02-01

Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were presented with child-friendly versions of classic base-rate problems in which a cued heuristic response could be inconsistent or consistent with the base rates. After each problem children were asked to indicate their subjective response confidence to assess their bias detection skills. Results indicated that 6th graders showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave a heuristic response that conflicted with the base rates. However, this confidence decrease was not observed for 3rd graders, suggesting that they did not yet acknowledge that their judgment was not fully warranted. Implications for the development of efficient training programs and the debate on human rationality are discussed. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Interior renovation of a general practitioner office leads to a perceptual bias on patient experience for over one year

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Introduction Measuring patient experience is key when assessing quality of care but can be biased: A perceptual bias occurs when renovations of the interior design of a general practitioner (GP) office improves how patients assessed quality of care. The aim was to assess the length of perceptual bias and if it could be reproduced after a second renovation. Methods A GP office with 2 GPs in Switzerland was renovated twice within 3 years. We assessed patient experience at baseline, 2 months and 14 months after the first and 3 months after the second renovation. Each time, we invited a sample of 180 consecutive patients that anonymously graded patient experience in 4 domains: appearance of the office; qualities of medical assistants and GPs; and general satisfaction. We compared crude mean scores per domain from baseline until follow-up. In a multivariate model, we adjusted for patient’s age, gender and for how long patients had been their GP. Results At baseline, patients aged 60.9 (17.7) years, 52% females. After the first renovation, we found a regression to the baseline level of patient experience after 14 months except for appearance of the office (p<0.001). After the second renovation, patient experience improved again in appearance of the office (p = 0.008), qualities of the GP (p = 0.008), and general satisfaction (p = 0.014). Qualities of the medical assistant showed a slight improvement (p = 0.068). Results were unchanged in the multivariate model. Conclusions Interior renovation of a GP office probably causes a perceptual bias for >1 year that improves how patients rate quality of care. This bias could be reproduced after a second renovation strengthening a possible causal relationship. These findings imply to appropriately time measurement of patient experience to at least one year after interior renovation of GP practices to avoid environmental changes influences the estimates when measuring patient experience. PMID:29462196

Forward-bias tunneling - A limitation to bipolar device scaling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Alamo, Jesus A.; Swanson, Richard M.

1986-01-01

Forward-bias tunneling is observed in heavily doped p-n junctions of bipolar transistors. A simple phenomenological model suitable to incorporation in device codes is developed. The model identifies as key parameters the space-charge-region (SCR) thickness at zero bias and the reduced doping level at its edges which can both be obtained from CV characteristics. This tunneling mechanism may limit the maximum gain achievable from scaled bipolar devices.

Coexisting exchange bias effect and ferroelectricity in geometrically frustrated ZnCr2O4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, J. K.; Majumdar, S.; Giri, S.

2018-06-01

Concomitant occurrence of exchange bias effect and ferroelectric order is revealed in antiferromagnetic spinel ZnCr2O4. The exchange bias effect is observed below antiferromagnetic Neél temperature (T N) with a reasonable value of exchange bias field ( Oe at 2 K). Intriguingly, the ratio is found unusually high as  ∼2.2, where H C is the coercivity. This indicates that large H C is not always primary for obtaining large exchange bias effect. Ferroelectric order is observed at T N, where non-centrosymmetric magnetic structure with space group associated with the magnetoelectric coupling correlates the ferroelectric order, proposing that, ZnCr2O4 is an improper multiferroic material. Rare occurrence of exchange bias effect and ferroelectric order in ZnCr2O4 attracts the community for fundamental interest and draws special attention in designing new materials for possible electric field control of exchange bias effect.

The Role of Pretest and Proxy-Pretest Measures of the Outcome for Removing Selection Bias in Observational Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hallberg, Kelly; Steiner, Peter M.; Cook, Thomas D.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this paper is threefold. The first is to test whether the pretest plays a greater role in bias reduction than any other single covariate, which the authors predict it will. The second is to examine the marginal improvement in bias reduction offered by having two pretest measurement waves. The authors predict that there will be some…

Seven deadly sins in trauma outcomes research: an epidemiologic post mortem for major causes of bias.

PubMed

del Junco, Deborah J; Fox, Erin E; Camp, Elizabeth A; Rahbar, Mohammad H; Holcomb, John B

2013-07-01

Because randomized clinical trials in trauma outcomes research are expensive and complex, they have rarely been the basis for the clinical care of trauma patients. Most published findings are derived from retrospective and occasionally prospective observational studies that may be particularly susceptible to bias. The sources of bias include some common to other clinical domains, such as heterogeneous patient populations with competing and interdependent short- and long-term outcomes. Other sources of bias are unique to trauma, such as rapidly changing multisystem responses to injury that necessitate highly dynamic treatment regimens such as blood product transfusion. The standard research design and analysis strategies applied in published observational studies are often inadequate to address these biases. Drawing on recent experience in the design, data collection, monitoring, and analysis of the 10-site observational PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study, 7 common and sometimes overlapping biases are described through examples and resolution strategies. Sources of bias in trauma research include ignoring (1) variation in patients' indications for treatment (indication bias), (2) the dependency of intervention delivery on patient survival (survival bias), (3) time-varying treatment, (4) time-dependent confounding, (5) nonuniform intervention effects over time, (6) nonrandom missing data mechanisms, and (7) imperfectly defined variables. This list is not exhaustive. The mitigation strategies to overcome these threats to validity require epidemiologic and statistical vigilance. Minimizing the highlighted types of bias in trauma research will facilitate clinical translation of more accurate and reproducible findings and improve the evidence-base that clinicians apply in their care of injured patients.

Calibration and assessment of channel-specific biases in microarray data with extended dynamical range.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Henrik; Jönsson, Göran; Vallon-Christersson, Johan

2004-11-12

Non-linearities in observed log-ratios of gene expressions, also known as intensity dependent log-ratios, can often be accounted for by global biases in the two channels being compared. Any step in a microarray process may introduce such offsets and in this article we study the biases introduced by the microarray scanner and the image analysis software. By scanning the same spotted oligonucleotide microarray at different photomultiplier tube (PMT) gains, we have identified a channel-specific bias present in two-channel microarray data. For the scanners analyzed it was in the range of 15-25 (out of 65,535). The observed bias was very stable between subsequent scans of the same array although the PMT gain was greatly adjusted. This indicates that the bias does not originate from a step preceding the scanner detector parts. The bias varies slightly between arrays. When comparing estimates based on data from the same array, but from different scanners, we have found that different scanners introduce different amounts of bias. So do various image analysis methods. We propose a scanning protocol and a constrained affine model that allows us to identify and estimate the bias in each channel. Backward transformation removes the bias and brings the channels to the same scale. The result is that systematic effects such as intensity dependent log-ratios are removed, but also that signal densities become much more similar. The average scan, which has a larger dynamical range and greater signal-to-noise ratio than individual scans, can then be obtained. The study shows that microarray scanners may introduce a significant bias in each channel. Such biases have to be calibrated for, otherwise systematic effects such as intensity dependent log-ratios will be observed. The proposed scanning protocol and calibration method is simple to use and is useful for evaluating scanner biases or for obtaining calibrated measurements with extended dynamical range and better precision. The

Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, D.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.

Autocalibration method for non-stationary CT bias correction.

PubMed

Vegas-Sánchez-Ferrero, Gonzalo; Ledesma-Carbayo, Maria J; Washko, George R; Estépar, Raúl San José

2018-02-01

Computed tomography (CT) is a widely used imaging modality for screening and diagnosis. However, the deleterious effects of radiation exposure inherent in CT imaging require the development of image reconstruction methods which can reduce exposure levels. The development of iterative reconstruction techniques is now enabling the acquisition of low-dose CT images whose quality is comparable to that of CT images acquired with much higher radiation dosages. However, the characterization and calibration of the CT signal due to changes in dosage and reconstruction approaches is crucial to provide clinically relevant data. Although CT scanners are calibrated as part of the imaging workflow, the calibration is limited to select global reference values and does not consider other inherent factors of the acquisition that depend on the subject scanned (e.g. photon starvation, partial volume effect, beam hardening) and result in a non-stationary noise response. In this work, we analyze the effect of reconstruction biases caused by non-stationary noise and propose an autocalibration methodology to compensate it. Our contributions are: 1) the derivation of a functional relationship between observed bias and non-stationary noise, 2) a robust and accurate method to estimate the local variance, 3) an autocalibration methodology that does not necessarily rely on a calibration phantom, attenuates the bias caused by noise and removes the systematic bias observed in devices from different vendors. The validation of the proposed methodology was performed with a physical phantom and clinical CT scans acquired with different configurations (kernels, doses, algorithms including iterative reconstruction). The results confirmed the suitability of the proposed methods for removing the intra-device and inter-device reconstruction biases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does parental anxiety cause biases in the processing of child-relevant threat material?

PubMed

Cartwright-Hatton, Sam; Abeles, Paul; Dixon, Clare; Holliday, Christine; Hills, Becky

2014-06-01

Anxiety leads to biases in processing personally relevant information. This study set out to examine whether anxious parents also experience biases in processing child-relevant material. Ninety parents acted as a control condition, or received a social anxiety or child-related anxiety induction. They completed a task examining attentional biases in relation to child-threat words and social-threat words, and a task examining ability to categorize emotion in children's faces and voices. There was a trend indicating group differences in attentional bias towards social-threat words, and this appears to have been only in the social anxiety condition, but not the child anxiety or control conditions. For child-threat words, attentional bias was present in the child anxiety condition, but not the social anxiety or control conditions. In the emotion recognition task, there was no difference between the control and child anxiety conditions, but the social anxiety condition were more likely to erroneously label children's faces and voices as sad. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Parents' anxious biases may spill over into their child's world. Anxious parents may have attentional biases towards threats in their children's environment. Anxious parents may over-attribute negative emotion to children. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models

DOE PAGES

Mayer, Michael; Fasullo, John T.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; ...

2016-03-19

Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation atmore » top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. In conclusion, results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.« less

How does the cosmic large-scale structure bias the Hubble diagram?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fleury, Pierre; Clarkson, Chris; Maartens, Roy, E-mail: pierre.fleury@uct.ac.za, E-mail: chris.clarkson@qmul.ac.uk, E-mail: roy.maartens@gmail.com

2017-03-01

The Hubble diagram is one of the cornerstones of observational cosmology. It is usually analysed assuming that, on average, the underlying relation between magnitude and redshift matches the prediction of a Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker model. However, the inhomogeneity of the Universe generically biases these observables, mainly due to peculiar velocities and gravitational lensing, in a way that depends on the notion of average used in theoretical calculations. In this article, we carefully derive the notion of average which corresponds to the observation of the Hubble diagram. We then calculate its bias at second-order in cosmological perturbations, and estimate the consequences on themore » inference of cosmological parameters, for various current and future surveys. We find that this bias deeply affects direct estimations of the evolution of the dark-energy equation of state. However, errors in the standard inference of cosmological parameters remain smaller than observational uncertainties, even though they reach percent level on some parameters; they reduce to sub-percent level if an optimal distance indicator is used.« less

Can free-viewing perceptual asymmetries be explained by scanning, pre-motor or attentional biases?

PubMed

Nicholls, Michael E R; Roberts, Georgina R

2002-04-01

Judgments of relative magnitude between the left and right sides of a stimulus are generally weighted toward the features contained on the left side. This leftward perceptual bias could be the result of, (a) left-to-right scanning biases, (b) pre-motor activation of the right hemisphere, or (c) a left hemispatial attentional bias. The relative merits of these explanations of perceptual asymmetry were investigated. In Experiment 1, English and Hebrew readers made luminance judgements for two left/right mirror-reversed luminance gradients (greyscales task). Despite different reading/scanning habits, both groups exhibited a leftward perceptual bias. English and Hebrew readers also performed a line bisection task. Scanning biases were controlled by asking participants to follow a marker as it moved left-to-right or right-to-left and then stop it as it reached the midpoint of the line. Despite controlling scanning, a leftward bias was observed in both groups. In Experiment 2, peripheral spatial cues were presented prior to the greyscales stimuli. English readers showed a reduction in the leftward bias for right-sided cues as compared to left-sided and neutral cues. Right-side cues presumably overcame a pre-existing leftward attentional bias. In both experiments, pre-motor activation was controlled using bimanual responses. Despite this control, a leftward bias was observed throughout the study. The data support the attentional bias account of leftward perceptual biases over the scanning and pre-motor activation accounts. Whether or not unilateral hemispheric activation provides an adequate account of this attentional bias is discussed.

Age and Gender Differences in Depression across Adolescence: Real or "Bias"?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Beek, Yolanda; Hessen, David J.; Hutteman, Roos; Verhulp, Esmee E.; van Leuven, Mirande

2012-01-01

Background: Since developmental psychologists are interested in explaining age and gender differences in depression across adolescence, it is important to investigate to what extent these observed differences can be attributed to measurement bias. Measurement bias may arise when the phenomenology of depression varies with age or gender, i.e., when…

Linear and non-linear bias: predictions versus measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

2017-02-01

We study the linear and non-linear bias parameters which determine the mapping between the distributions of galaxies and the full matter density fields, comparing different measurements and predictions. Associating galaxies with dark matter haloes in the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) Grand Challenge N-body simulation, we directly measure the bias parameters by comparing the smoothed density fluctuations of haloes and matter in the same region at different positions as a function of smoothing scale. Alternatively, we measure the bias parameters by matching the probability distributions of halo and matter density fluctuations, which can be applied to observations. These direct bias measurements are compared to corresponding measurements from two-point and different third-order correlations, as well as predictions from the peak-background model, which we presented in previous papers using the same data. We find an overall variation of the linear bias measurements and predictions of ˜5 per cent with respect to results from two-point correlations for different halo samples with masses between ˜1012and1015 h-1 M⊙ at the redshifts z = 0.0 and 0.5. Variations between the second- and third-order bias parameters from the different methods show larger variations, but with consistent trends in mass and redshift. The various bias measurements reveal a tight relation between the linear and the quadratic bias parameters, which is consistent with results from the literature based on simulations with different cosmologies. Such a universal relation might improve constraints on cosmological models, derived from second-order clustering statistics at small scales or higher order clustering statistics.

Remembering the best and worst of times: memories for extreme outcomes bias risky decisions.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R; Ludvig, Elliot A; Spetch, Marcia L

2014-06-01

When making decisions on the basis of past experiences, people must rely on their memories. Human memory has many well-known biases, including the tendency to better remember highly salient events. We propose an extreme-outcome rule, whereby this memory bias leads people to overweight the largest gains and largest losses, leading to more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. To test this rule, in two experiments, people repeatedly chose between fixed and risky options, where the risky option led equiprobably to more or less than did the fixed option. As was predicted, people were more risk seeking for relative gains than for relative losses. In subsequent memory tests, people tended to recall the extreme outcome first and also judged the extreme outcome as having occurred more frequently. Across individuals, risk preferences in the risky-choice task correlated with these memory biases. This extreme-outcome rule presents a novel mechanism through which memory influences decision making.

A non-parametric postprocessor for bias-correcting multi-model ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun

2010-05-01

Operational forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables often contain large uncertainties, for which ensemble techniques are increasingly used. However, the utility of ensemble forecasts depends on the unbiasedness of the forecast probabilities. We describe a technique for quantifying and removing biases from ensemble forecasts of hydrometeorological and hydrologic variables, intended for use in operational forecasting. The technique makes no a priori assumptions about the distributional form of the variables, which is often unknown or difficult to model parametrically. The aim is to estimate the conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) of the observed variable given a (possibly biased) real-time ensemble forecast from one or several forecasting systems (multi-model ensembles). The technique is based on Bayesian optimal linear estimation of indicator variables, and is analogous to indicator cokriging (ICK) in geostatistics. By developing linear estimators for the conditional expectation of the observed variable at many thresholds, ICK provides a discrete approximation of the full ccdf. Since ICK minimizes the conditional error variance of the indicator expectation at each threshold, it effectively minimizes the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) when infinitely many thresholds are employed. However, the ensemble members used as predictors in ICK, and other bias-correction techniques, are often highly cross-correlated, both within and between models. Thus, we propose an orthogonal transform of the predictors used in ICK, which is analogous to using their principal components in the linear system of equations. This leads to a well-posed problem in which a minimum number of predictors are used to provide maximum information content in terms of the total variance explained. The technique is used to bias-correct precipitation ensemble forecasts from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), for which independent validation results