Sample records for observations ii predictions

  1. A comparison between the observed and predicted Fe II spectrum in different plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johansson, S.

    This paper gives a survey of the spectral distribution of emission lines of Fe II, predicted from a single atomic model. The observed differences between the recorded and the predicted spectrum are discussed in terms of deficiencies of the model and interactions within the emitting plasma. A number of illustrative examples of unexpected features with applications to astrophysics are given. Selective population, due to charge transfer and resonant photo excitation, is elucidated. The future need of more laboratory data for Fe II as regards energy levels and line classification is also discussed.

  2. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    PubMed

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

    PubMed

    Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

    2010-02-01

    Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

  4. Predicting MHC-II binding affinity using multiple instance regression

    PubMed Central

    EL-Manzalawy, Yasser; Dobbs, Drena; Honavar, Vasant

    2011-01-01

    Reliably predicting the ability of antigen peptides to bind to major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules is an essential step in developing new vaccines. Uncovering the amino acid sequence correlates of the binding affinity of MHC-II binding peptides is important for understanding pathogenesis and immune response. The task of predicting MHC-II binding peptides is complicated by the significant variability in their length. Most existing computational methods for predicting MHC-II binding peptides focus on identifying a nine amino acids core region in each binding peptide. We formulate the problems of qualitatively and quantitatively predicting flexible length MHC-II peptides as multiple instance learning and multiple instance regression problems, respectively. Based on this formulation, we introduce MHCMIR, a novel method for predicting MHC-II binding affinity using multiple instance regression. We present results of experiments using several benchmark datasets that show that MHCMIR is competitive with the state-of-the-art methods for predicting MHC-II binding peptides. An online web server that implements the MHCMIR method for MHC-II binding affinity prediction is freely accessible at http://ailab.cs.iastate.edu/mhcmir. PMID:20855923

  5. Predictions of Sunspot Cycle 24: A Comparison with Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, N. J.; Jain, R.

    2017-12-01

    The space weather is largely affected due to explosions on the Sun viz. solar flares and CMEs, which, however, in turn depend upon the magnitude of the solar activity i e. number of sunspots and their magnetic configuration. Owing to these space weather effects, predictions of sunspot cycle are important. Precursor techniques, particularly employing geomagnetic indices, are often used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude of a sunspot cycle. Based on the average geomagnetic activity index aa (since 1868 onwards) for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, Bhatt et al. (2009) made two predictions for sunspot cycle 24 considering 2008 as the year of sunspot minimum: (i) The annual maximum amplitude would be 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy) indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21-23, and (ii) smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum would be in October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy). However, observations reveal that the sunspot minima extended up to 2009, and the maximum amplitude attained is 79, with a monthly mean sunspot number maximum of 102.3 in February 2014. In view of the observations and particularly owing to the extended solar minimum in 2009, we re-examined our prediction model and revised the prediction results. We find that (i) The annual maximum amplitude of cycle 24 = 71.2 ± 19.6 and (ii) A smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum in January 2014±4 months. We discuss our failure and success aspects and present improved predictions for the maximum amplitude as well as for the timing, which are now in good agreement with the observations. Also, we present the limitations of our forecasting in the view of long term predictions. We show if year of sunspot minimum activity and magnitude of geomagnetic activity during sunspot minimum are taken correctly then our prediction method appears to be a reliable indicator to forecast the sunspot amplitude of the following solar cycle. References:Bhatt, N

  6. Predictive data modeling of human type II diabetes related statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaenisch, Kristina L.; Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Albritton, Nathaniel G.

    2009-04-01

    During the course of routine Type II treatment of one of the authors, it was decided to derive predictive analytical Data Models of the daily sampled vital statistics: namely weight, blood pressure, and blood sugar, to determine if the covariance among the observed variables could yield a descriptive equation based model, or better still, a predictive analytical model that could forecast the expected future trend of the variables and possibly eliminate the number of finger stickings required to montior blood sugar levels. The personal history and analysis with resulting models are presented.

  7. RNA Polymerase II cluster dynamics predict mRNA output in living cells

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Won-Ki; Jayanth, Namrata; English, Brian P; Inoue, Takuma; Andrews, J Owen; Conway, William; Grimm, Jonathan B; Spille, Jan-Hendrik; Lavis, Luke D; Lionnet, Timothée; Cisse, Ibrahim I

    2016-01-01

    Protein clustering is a hallmark of genome regulation in mammalian cells. However, the dynamic molecular processes involved make it difficult to correlate clustering with functional consequences in vivo. We developed a live-cell super-resolution approach to uncover the correlation between mRNA synthesis and the dynamics of RNA Polymerase II (Pol II) clusters at a gene locus. For endogenous β-actin genes in mouse embryonic fibroblasts, we observe that short-lived (~8 s) Pol II clusters correlate with basal mRNA output. During serum stimulation, a stereotyped increase in Pol II cluster lifetime correlates with a proportionate increase in the number of mRNAs synthesized. Our findings suggest that transient clustering of Pol II may constitute a pre-transcriptional regulatory event that predictably modulates nascent mRNA output. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13617.001 PMID:27138339

  8. Ultraviolet imaging telescope and optical emission-line observations of H II regions in M81

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hill, Jesse K.; Cheng, K.-P.; Bohlin, Ralph C.; Cornett, Robert H.; Hintzen, P. M. N.; O'Connell, Robert W.; Roberts, Morton S.; Smith, Andrew M.; Smith, Eric P.; Stecher, Theodore P.

    1995-01-01

    Images of the type Sab spiral galaxy M81 were obtained in far-UV and near-UV bands by the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) during the Astro-1 Spacelab mission of 1990 December. Magnitudes in the two UV bands are determined for 52 H II regions from the catalog of Petit, Sivan, & Karachentsev (1988). Fluxes of the H-alpha and H-beta emission lines are determined from CCD images. Extinctions for the brightest H II regions are determined from observed Balmer decrements. Fainter H II regions are assigned the average of published radio-H-alpha extinctions for several bright H II regions. The radiative transfer models of Witt, Thronson, & Capuano (1992) are shown to predict a relationship between Balmer Decrement and H-alpha extinction consistent with observed line and radio fluxes for the brightest 7 H II regions and are used to estimate the UV extinction. Ratios of Lyman continuum with ratios predicted by model spectra computed for initial mass function (IMF) slope equal to -1.0 and stellar masses ranging from 5 to 120 solar mass. Ages and masses are estimated by comparing the H-alpha and far-UV fluxes and their ratio with the models. The total of the estimated stellar masses for the 52 H II regions is 1.4 x 10(exp 5) solar mass. The star-formation rate inferred for M81 from the observed UV and H-alpha fluxes is low for a spiral galaxy at approximately 0.13 solar mass/yr, but consistent with the low star-formation rates obtained by Kennicutt (1983) and Caldwell et al. (1991) for early-type spirals.

  9. HART-II: Prediction of Blade-Vortex Interaction Loading

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, Joon W.; Tung, Chee; Yu, Yung H.; Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas; Boyd, Doug; vanderWall, Berend; Schneider, Oliver; Richard, Hugues; Raffel, Markus

    2003-01-01

    During the HART-I data analysis, the need for comprehensive wake data was found including vortex creation and aging, and its re-development after blade-vortex interaction. In October 2001, US Army AFDD, NASA Langley, German DLR, French ONERA and Dutch DNW performed the HART-II test as an international joint effort. The main objective was to focus on rotor wake measurement using a PIV technique along with the comprehensive data of blade deflections, airloads, and acoustics. Three prediction teams made preliminary correlation efforts with HART-II data: a joint US team of US Army AFDD and NASA Langley, German DLR, and French ONERA. The predicted results showed significant improvements over the HART-I predicted results, computed about several years ago, which indicated that there has been better understanding of complicated wake modeling in the comprehensive rotorcraft analysis. All three teams demonstrated satisfactory prediction capabilities, in general, though there were slight deviations of prediction accuracies for various disciplines.

  10. Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

    2016-07-01

    The part II of the present study focuses on northern East Asia (NEA: 26°N-50°N, 100°-140°E), exploring the source and limit of the predictability of the peak summer (July-August) rainfall. Prediction of NEA peak summer rainfall is extremely challenging because of the exposure of the NEA to midlatitude influence. By examining four coupled climate models' multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast during 1979-2010, we found that the domain-averaged MME temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill is only 0.13. It is unclear whether the dynamical models' poor skills are due to limited predictability of the peak-summer NEA rainfall. In the present study we attempted to address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method using 35-year observations (1979-2013). Four empirical orthogonal modes of variability and associated major potential sources of variability are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific (EWP)-NEA teleconnection driven by EWP sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high and Indo-Pacific dipole SST feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train pattern. Physically meaningful predictors for each principal component (PC) were selected based on analysis of the lead-lag correlations with the persistent and tendency fields of SST and sea-level pressure from March to June. A suite of physical-empirical (P-E) models is established to predict the four leading PCs. The peak summer rainfall anomaly pattern is then objectively predicted by using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns. A 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the NEA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill of 0.36, which is significantly higher than the MME dynamical hindcast (0.13). The estimated maximum potential attainable TCC skill averaged over the entire domain is around 0.61, suggesting that the current dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve

  11. Observation of Fermi arcs in the type-II Weyl semimetal candidate WTe 2

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wu, Yun; Mou, Daixiang; Jo, Na Hyun

    We use ultrahigh resolution, tunable, vacuum ultraviolet laser angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) to study the electronic properties of WTe 2, a material that was predicted to be a type-II Weyl semimetal. The Weyl fermion states in WTe 2 were proposed to emerge at the crossing points of electron and hole pockets, and Fermi arcs connecting electron and hole pockets would be visible in the spectral function on (001) surface. Here we report the observation of such Fermi arcs in WTe 2 confirming the theoretical predictions. This provides strong evidence for type-II Weyl semimetallic states in WTe 2. Here, we alsomore » find that trivial and topological domains coexist on the same surface of the sample due to the presence of inhomogeneous strain detected by scanning electron microscopy data. This is in agreement with the theoretical prediction that strain can drive this system from topological Weyl to trivial semimetal. WTe 2 therefore provides a tunable playground for studying exotic topological quantum effects.« less

  12. Observation of Fermi arcs in the type-II Weyl semimetal candidate WTe 2

    DOE PAGES

    Wu, Yun; Mou, Daixiang; Jo, Na Hyun; ...

    2016-09-14

    We use ultrahigh resolution, tunable, vacuum ultraviolet laser angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) to study the electronic properties of WTe 2, a material that was predicted to be a type-II Weyl semimetal. The Weyl fermion states in WTe 2 were proposed to emerge at the crossing points of electron and hole pockets, and Fermi arcs connecting electron and hole pockets would be visible in the spectral function on (001) surface. Here we report the observation of such Fermi arcs in WTe 2 confirming the theoretical predictions. This provides strong evidence for type-II Weyl semimetallic states in WTe 2. Here, we alsomore » find that trivial and topological domains coexist on the same surface of the sample due to the presence of inhomogeneous strain detected by scanning electron microscopy data. This is in agreement with the theoretical prediction that strain can drive this system from topological Weyl to trivial semimetal. WTe 2 therefore provides a tunable playground for studying exotic topological quantum effects.« less

  13. Type I and II β-turns prediction using NMR chemical shifts.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ching-Cheng; Lai, Wen-Chung; Chuang, Woei-Jer

    2014-07-01

    A method for predicting type I and II β-turns using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) chemical shifts is proposed. Isolated β-turn chemical-shift data were collected from 1,798 protein chains. One-dimensional statistical analyses on chemical-shift data of three classes β-turn (type I, II, and VIII) showed different distributions at four positions, (i) to (i + 3). Considering the central two residues of type I β-turns, the mean values of Cο, Cα, H(N), and N(H) chemical shifts were generally (i + 1) > (i + 2). The mean values of Cβ and Hα chemical shifts were (i + 1) < (i + 2). The distributions of the central two residues in type II and VIII β-turns were also distinguishable by trends of chemical shift values. Two-dimensional cluster analyses on chemical-shift data show positional distributions more clearly. Based on these propensities of chemical shift classified as a function of position, rules were derived using scoring matrices for four consecutive residues to predict type I and II β-turns. The proposed method achieves an overall prediction accuracy of 83.2 and 84.2% with the Matthews correlation coefficient values of 0.317 and 0.632 for type I and II β-turns, indicating that its higher accuracy for type II turn prediction. The results show that it is feasible to use NMR chemical shifts to predict the β-turn types in proteins. The proposed method can be incorporated into other chemical-shift based protein secondary structure prediction methods.

  14. Predictive value of the APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA and GCS scoring systems in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis.

    PubMed

    Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska, Iwona; Bernas, Szymon; Łojko, Piotr; Piechota, Anna; Piechota, Mariusz

    2016-01-01

    Scoring systems in critical care patients are essential for predicting of the patient outcome and evaluating the therapy. In this study, we determined the value of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scoring systems in the prediction of mortality in adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe purulent bacterial meningitis. We retrospectively analysed data from 98 adult patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis who were admitted to the single ICU between March 2006 and September 2015. Univariate logistic regression identified the following risk factors of death in patients with severe purulent bacterial meningitis: APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA, and GCS scores, and the lengths of ICU stay and hospital stay. The independent risk factors of patient death in multivariate analysis were the SAPS II score, the length of ICU stay and the length of hospital stay. In the prediction of mortality according to the area under the curve, the SAPS II score had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE II, GCS and SOFA scores. For the prediction of mortality in a patient with severe purulent bacterial meningitis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy.

  15. Deterministic Wave Predictions from the WaMoS II

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-23

    Monitoring System WaMoS II as input to a wave pre- diction system . The utility of wave prediction is primarily ves- sel motion prediction. Specific...successful prediction. The envisioned prediction system may provide graphical output in the form of a decision support system (Fig. 1). Predictions are...quality and accuracy of WaMoS as input to a deterministic wave prediction system . In the context of this paper, the Time Now Forecast H e a v e Hindcast

  16. Prediction of CMEs and Type II Bursts from Sun to Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cairns, I. H.; Schmidt, J. M.; Gopalswamy, N.; van der Holst, B.

    2017-12-01

    Most major space weather events are due to fast CMEs and their shocks interacting with Earth's magnetosphere. SImilarly, type II solar radio bursts are well-known signatures of CMEs and their shocks moving through the corona and solar wind. The properties of the space weather events and the type II radio bursts depend sensitively on the CME velocity, shape, and evolution as functions of position and time, as well as on the magnetic field vector in the coronal and solar wind plasma, downstream of the CME shock, and inside the CME. We report simulations of CMEs and type II bursts from the Sun to Earth with the Space Weather Modelling Framework (2015 and 2016 versions), set up carefully using relevant data, and a kinetic radio emission theory. Excellent agreement between observations, simulations, and theory are found for the coronal (metric) type II burst of 7 September 2014 and associated CME, including the lack of radio emission in the solar wind beyond about 10 solar radii. Similarly, simulation of a CME and type II burst from the Sun to 1 AU over the period 29 November - 1 December 2013 yield excellent agreement for the radio burst from 10 MHz to 30 kHz for STEREO A and B and Wind, arrival of the CME at STEREO A within 1 hour reported time, deceleration of the CME in agreement with the Gopalswamy et al. [2011] observational analyses, and Bz rotations at STEREO A from upstream of the CME shock to within the CME. These results provide strong support for the type II theory and also that the Space WeatherModeling Framework can accurately predict the properties and evolution of CMEs and the interplanetary magnetic field and plasma from the Sun to 1 AU when sufficiently carefully initialized.

  17. Comparison of Solar Fine Structure Observed Simultaneously in Lyα and Mg II h

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmit, D.; Sukhorukov, A. V.; De Pontieu, B.; Leenaarts, J.; Bethge, C.; Winebarger, A.; Auchère, F.; Bando, T.; Ishikawa, R.; Kano, R.; Kobayashi, K.; Narukage, N.; Trujillo Bueno, J.

    2017-10-01

    The Chromospheric Lyman Alpha Spectropolarimeter (CLASP) observed the Sun in H I Lyα during a suborbital rocket flight on 2015 September 3. The Interface Region Imaging Telescope (IRIS) coordinated with the CLASP observations and recorded nearly simultaneous and co-spatial observations in the Mg II h and k lines. The Mg II h and Lyα lines are important transitions, energetically and diagnostically, in the chromosphere. The canonical solar atmosphere model predicts that these lines form in close proximity to each other and so we expect that the line profiles will exhibit similar variability. In this analysis, we present these coordinated observations and discuss how the two profiles compare over a region of quiet Sun at viewing angles that approach the limb. In addition to the observations, we synthesize both line profiles using a 3D radiation-MHD simulation. In the observations, we find that the peak width and the peak intensities are well correlated between the lines. For the simulation, we do not find the same relationship. We have attempted to mitigate the instrumental differences between IRIS and CLASP and to reproduce the instrumental factors in the synthetic profiles. The model indicates that formation heights of the lines differ in a somewhat regular fashion related to magnetic geometry. This variation explains to some degree the lack of correlation, observed and synthesized, between Mg II and Lyα. Our analysis will aid in the definition of future observatories that aim to link dynamics in the chromosphere and transition region.

  18. Comparison of Solar Fine Structure Observed Simultaneously in Ly α and Mg ii h

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schmit, D.; Sukhorukov, A. V.; Leenaarts, J.

    The Chromospheric Lyman Alpha Spectropolarimeter (CLASP) observed the Sun in H i Ly α during a suborbital rocket flight on 2015 September 3. The Interface Region Imaging Telescope ( IRIS ) coordinated with the CLASP observations and recorded nearly simultaneous and co-spatial observations in the Mg ii h and k lines. The Mg ii h and Ly α lines are important transitions, energetically and diagnostically, in the chromosphere. The canonical solar atmosphere model predicts that these lines form in close proximity to each other and so we expect that the line profiles will exhibit similar variability. In this analysis, wemore » present these coordinated observations and discuss how the two profiles compare over a region of quiet Sun at viewing angles that approach the limb. In addition to the observations, we synthesize both line profiles using a 3D radiation-MHD simulation. In the observations, we find that the peak width and the peak intensities are well correlated between the lines. For the simulation, we do not find the same relationship. We have attempted to mitigate the instrumental differences between IRIS and CLASP and to reproduce the instrumental factors in the synthetic profiles. The model indicates that formation heights of the lines differ in a somewhat regular fashion related to magnetic geometry. This variation explains to some degree the lack of correlation, observed and synthesized, between Mg ii and Ly α . Our analysis will aid in the definition of future observatories that aim to link dynamics in the chromosphere and transition region.« less

  19. Mortality Prediction Using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Scoring Systems: Is There a Difference?

    PubMed

    Venkataraman, Ramesh; Gopichandran, Vijayaprasad; Ranganathan, Lakshmi; Rajagopal, Senthilkumar; Abraham, Babu K; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

    2018-05-01

    Mortality prediction in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) setting is complex, and there are several scoring systems utilized for this process. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II has been the most widely used scoring system; although, the more recent APACHE IV is considered an updated and advanced prediction model. However, these two systems may not give similar mortality predictions. The aim of this study is to compare the mortality prediction ability of APACHE II and APACHE IV scoring systems among patients admitted to a tertiary care ICU. In this prospective longitudinal observational study, APACHE II and APACHE IV scores of ICU patients were computed using an online calculator. The outcome of the ICU admissions for all the patients was collected as discharged or deceased. The data were analyzed to compare the discrimination and calibration of the mortality prediction ability of the two scores. Out of the 1670 patients' data analyzed, the area under the receiver operating characteristic of APACHE II score was 0.906 (95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.890-0.992), and APACHE IV score was 0.881 (95% CI - 0.862-0.890). The mean predicted mortality rate of the study population as given by the APACHE II scoring system was 44.8 ± 26.7 and as given by APACHE IV scoring system was 29.1 ± 28.5. The observed mortality rate was 22.4%. The APACHE II and IV scoring systems have comparable discrimination ability, but the calibration of APACHE IV seems to be better than that of APACHE II. There is a need to recalibrate the scales with weights derived from the Indian population.

  20. Physical properties of solar chromospheric plages. III - Models based on Ca II and Mg II observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kelch, W. L.; Linsky, J. L.

    1978-01-01

    Solar plages are modeled using observations of both the Ca II K and the Mg II h and k lines. A partial-redistribution approach is employed for calculating the line profiles on the basis of a grid of five model chromospheres. The computed integrated emission intensities for the five atmospheric models are compared with observations of six regions on the sun as well as with models of active-chromosphere stars. It is concluded that the basic plage model grid proposed by Shine and Linsky (1974) is still valid when the Mg II lines are included in the analysis and the Ca II and Mg II lines are analyzed using partial-redistribution diagnostics.

  1. Comparison of midlatitude ionospheric F region peak parameters and topside Ne profiles from IRI2012 model prediction with ground-based ionosonde and Alouette II observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordiyenko, G. I.; Yakovets, A. F.

    2017-07-01

    The ionospheric F2 peak parameters recorded by a ground-based ionosonde at the midlatitude station Alma-Ata [43.25N, 76.92E] were compared with those obtained using the latest version of the IRI model (http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/vitmo/iri2012_vitmo.html). It was found that for the Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan) location, the IRI2012 model describes well the morphology of seasonal and diurnal variations of the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) and peak density height (hmF2) monthly medians. The model errors in the median foF2 prediction (percentage deviations between the median foF2 values and their model predictions) were found to vary approximately in the range from about -20% to 34% and showed a stable overestimation in the median foF2 values for daytime in January and July and underestimation for day- and nighttime hours in the equinoctial months. The comparison between the ionosonde hmF2 and IRI results clearly showed that the IRI overestimates the nighttime hmF2 values for March and September months, and the difference is up to 30 km. The daytime Alma-Ata hmF2 data were found to be close to the IRI predictions (deviations are approximately ±10-15 km) in winter and equinoctial months, except in July when the observed hmF2 values were much more (from approximately 50-200 km). The comparison between the Alouette foF2 data and IRI predictions showed mixed results. In particular, the Alouette foF2 data showed a tendency to be overestimated for daytime in winter months similar to the ionosonde data; however, the overestimated foF2 values for nighttime in the autumn equinox were in disagreement with the ionosonde observations. There were large deviations between the observed hmF2 values and their model predictions. The largest deviations were found during winter and summer (up to -90 km). The comparison of the Alouette II electron density profiles with those predicted by the adapted IRI2012 model in the altitude range hmF2 of the satellite position showed a great

  2. Mortality Prediction Using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV Scoring Systems: Is There a Difference?

    PubMed Central

    Venkataraman, Ramesh; Gopichandran, Vijayaprasad; Ranganathan, Lakshmi; Rajagopal, Senthilkumar; Abraham, Babu K; Ramakrishnan, Nagarajan

    2018-01-01

    Background: Mortality prediction in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) setting is complex, and there are several scoring systems utilized for this process. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II has been the most widely used scoring system; although, the more recent APACHE IV is considered an updated and advanced prediction model. However, these two systems may not give similar mortality predictions. Objectives: The aim of this study is to compare the mortality prediction ability of APACHE II and APACHE IV scoring systems among patients admitted to a tertiary care ICU. Methods: In this prospective longitudinal observational study, APACHE II and APACHE IV scores of ICU patients were computed using an online calculator. The outcome of the ICU admissions for all the patients was collected as discharged or deceased. The data were analyzed to compare the discrimination and calibration of the mortality prediction ability of the two scores. Results: Out of the 1670 patients' data analyzed, the area under the receiver operating characteristic of APACHE II score was 0.906 (95% confidence interval [CI] – 0.890–0.992), and APACHE IV score was 0.881 (95% CI – 0.862–0.890). The mean predicted mortality rate of the study population as given by the APACHE II scoring system was 44.8 ± 26.7 and as given by APACHE IV scoring system was 29.1 ± 28.5. The observed mortality rate was 22.4%. Conclusions: The APACHE II and IV scoring systems have comparable discrimination ability, but the calibration of APACHE IV seems to be better than that of APACHE II. There is a need to recalibrate the scales with weights derived from the Indian population. PMID:29910542

  3. Life beyond MSE and R2 — improving validation of predictive models with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papritz, Andreas; Nussbaum, Madlene

    2017-04-01

    Machine learning and statistical predictive methods are evaluated by the closeness of predictions to observations of a test dataset. Common criteria for rating predictive methods are bias and mean square error (MSE), characterizing systematic and random prediction errors. Many studies also report R2-values, but their meaning is not always clear (correlation between observations and predictions or MSE skill score; Wilks, 2011). The same criteria are also used for choosing tuning parameters of predictive procedures by cross-validation and bagging (e.g. Hastie et al., 2009). For evident reasons, atmospheric sciences have developed a rich box of tools for forecast verification. Specific criteria have been proposed for evaluating deterministic and probabilistic predictions of binary, multinomial, ordinal and continuous responses (see reviews by Wilks, 2011, Jollie and Stephenson, 2012 and Gneiting et al., 2007). It appears that these techniques are not very well-known in the geosciences community interested in machine learning. In our presentation we review techniques that offer more insight into proximity of data and predictions than bias, MSE and R2 alone. We mention here only examples: (i) Graphing observations vs. predictions is usually more appropriate than the reverse (Piñeiro et al., 2008). (ii) The decomposition of the Brier score score (= MSE for probabilistic predictions of binary yes/no data) into reliability and resolution reveals (conditional) bias and capability of discriminating yes/no observations by the predictions. We illustrate the approaches by applications from digital soil mapping studies. Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., and Raftery, A. E. (2007). Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 69, 243-268. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning; Data Mining, Inference and Prediction. Springer, New York, second edition. Jolliffe, I. T. and

  4. First light observations with TIFR Near Infrared Imaging Camera (TIRCAM-II)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojha, D. K.; Ghosh, S. K.; D'Costa, S. L. A.; Naik, M. B.; Sandimani, P. R.; Poojary, S. S.; Bhagat, S. B.; Jadhav, R. B.; Meshram, G. S.; Bakalkar, C. B.; Ramaprakash, A. N.; Mohan, V.; Joshi, J.

    TIFR near infrared imaging camera (TIRCAM-II) is based on the Aladdin III Quadrant InSb focal plane array (512×512 pixels; 27.6 μm pixel size; sensitive between 1 - 5.5 μm). TIRCAM-II had its first engineering run with the 2 m IUCAA telescope at Girawali during February - March 2011. The first light observations with TIRCAM-II were quite successful. Several infrared standard with TIRCAM-II were quite successful. Several infrared standard stars, the Trapezium Cluster in Orion region, McNeil's nebula, etc., were observed in the J, K and in a narrow-band at 3.6 μm (nbL). In the nbL band, some bright stars could be detected from the Girawali site. The performance of TIRCAM-II is discussed in the light of preliminary observations in near infrared bands.

  5. A Statistical Study of Interplanetary Type II Bursts: STEREO Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krupar, V.; Eastwood, J. P.; Magdalenic, J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Kruparova, O.; Szabo, A.

    2017-12-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary cause of the most severe and disruptive space weather events such as solar energetic particle (SEP) events and geomagnetic storms at Earth. Interplanetary type II bursts are generated via the plasma emission mechanism by energetic electrons accelerated at CME-driven shock waves and hence identify CMEs that potentially cause space weather impact. As CMEs propagate outward from the Sun, radio emissions are generated at progressively at lower frequencies corresponding to a decreasing ambient solar wind plasma density. We have performed a statistical study of 153 interplanetary type II bursts observed by the two STEREO spacecraft between March 2008 and August 2014. These events have been correlated with manually-identified CMEs contained in the Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) catalogue. Our results confirm that faster CMEs are more likely to produce interplanetary type II radio bursts. We have compared observed frequency drifts with white-light observations to estimate angular deviations of type II burst propagation directions from radial. We have found that interplanetary type II bursts preferably arise from CME flanks. Finally, we discuss a visibility of radio emissions in relation to the CME propagation direction.

  6. A Bayesian predictive two-stage design for phase II clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Sambucini, Valeria

    2008-04-15

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian two-stage design for phase II clinical trials, which represents a predictive version of the single threshold design (STD) recently introduced by Tan and Machin. The STD two-stage sample sizes are determined specifying a minimum threshold for the posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds a pre-specified target value and assuming that the observed response rate is slightly higher than the target. Unlike the STD, we do not refer to a fixed experimental outcome, but take into account the uncertainty about future data. In both stages, the design aims to control the probability of getting a large posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds the target value. Such a probability is expressed in terms of prior predictive distributions of the data. The performance of the design is based on the distinction between analysis and design priors, recently introduced in the literature. The properties of the method are studied when all the design parameters vary.

  7. Detectability of [C II] 158 μm Emission from High-Redshift Galaxies: Predictions for ALMA and SPICA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagamine, Kentaro; Wolfe, Arthur M.; Hernquist, Lars

    2006-08-01

    We discuss the detectability of high-redshift galaxies via [C II] 158 μm line emission by coupling an analytic model with cosmological smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations that are based on the concordance Λ cold dark matter (CDM) model. Our analytic model describes a multiphase interstellar medium (ISM) irradiated by the far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation from local star-forming regions, and it calculates thermal and ionization equilibrium between cooling and heating. The model allows us to predict the mass fraction of a cold neutral medium (CNM) embedded in a warm neutral medium (WNM). Our cosmological SPH simulations include a treatment of radiative cooling/heating, star formation, and feedback effects from supernovae and galactic winds. Using our method, we make predictions for the [C II] luminosity from high-redshift galaxies that can be directly compared with upcoming observations by the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) and the Space Infrared Telescope for Cosmology and Astrophysics (SPICA). We find that the number density of high-redshift galaxies detectable by ALMA and SPICA via [C II] emission depends significantly on the amount of neutral gas, which is highly uncertain. Our calculations suggest that, in a CDM universe, most [C II] sources at z=3 are faint objects with Sν<0.01 mJy. Lyman break galaxies (LBGs) brighter than RAB=23.5 mag are expected to have flux densities Sν=1-3 mJy depending on the strength of galactic wind feedback. The recommended observing strategy for ALMA and SPICA is to aim at very bright LBGs or star-forming DRG/BzK galaxies.

  8. In silico prediction of ROCK II inhibitors by different classification approaches.

    PubMed

    Cai, Chuipu; Wu, Qihui; Luo, Yunxia; Ma, Huili; Shen, Jiangang; Zhang, Yongbin; Yang, Lei; Chen, Yunbo; Wen, Zehuai; Wang, Qi

    2017-11-01

    ROCK II is an important pharmacological target linked to central nervous system disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. The purpose of this research is to generate ROCK II inhibitor prediction models by machine learning approaches. Firstly, four sets of descriptors were calculated with MOE 2010 and PaDEL-Descriptor, and optimized by F-score and linear forward selection methods. In addition, four classification algorithms were used to initially build 16 classifiers with k-nearest neighbors [Formula: see text], naïve Bayes, Random forest, and support vector machine. Furthermore, three sets of structural fingerprint descriptors were introduced to enhance the predictive capacity of classifiers, which were assessed with fivefold cross-validation, test set validation and external test set validation. The best two models, MFK + MACCS and MLR + SubFP, have both MCC values of 0.925 for external test set. After that, a privileged substructure analysis was performed to reveal common chemical features of ROCK II inhibitors. Finally, binding modes were analyzed to identify relationships between molecular descriptors and activity, while main interactions were revealed by comparing the docking interaction of the most potent and the weakest ROCK II inhibitors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on ROCK II inhibitors utilizing machine learning approaches that provides a new method for discovering novel ROCK II inhibitors.

  9. Poisoning severity score, APACHE II and GCS: effective clinical indices for estimating severity and predicting outcome of acute organophosphorus and carbamate poisoning.

    PubMed

    Sam, Kishore Gnana; Kondabolu, Krishnakanth; Pati, Dipanwita; Kamath, Asha; Pradeep Kumar, G; Rao, Padma G M

    2009-07-01

    Self-poisoning with organophosphorus (OP) compounds is a major cause of morbidity and mortality across South Asian countries. To develop uniform and effective management guidelines, the severity of acute OP poisoning should be assessed through scientific methods and a clinical database should be maintained. A prospective descriptive survey was carried out to assess the utility of severity scales in predicting the outcome of 71 organophosphate (OP) and carbamate poisoning patients admitted during a one year period at the Kasturba Hospital, Manipal, India. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, predicted mortality rate (PMR) and Poisoning severity score (PSS) were estimated within 24h of admission. Significant correlation (P<0.05) between PSS and GCS and APACHE II and PMR scores were observed with the PSS scores predicting mortality significantly (P< or =0.001). A total of 84.5% patients improved after treatment while 8.5% of the patients were discharged with severe morbidity. The mortality rate was 7.0%. Suicidal poisoning was observed to be the major cause (80.2%), while other reasons attributed were occupational (9.1%), accidental (6.6%), homicidal (1.6%) and unknown (2.5%) reasons. This study highlights the application of clinical indices like GCS, APACHE, PMR and severity scores in predicting mortality and may be considered for planning standard treatment guidelines.

  10. Predicting Backdrafting and Spillage for Natural-Draft Gas Combustion Appliances: Validating VENT-II

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rapp, Vi H.; Pastor-Perez, Albert; Singer, Brett C.

    2013-04-01

    VENT-II is a computer program designed to provide detailed analysis of natural draft and induced draft combustion appliance vent-systems (i.e., furnace or water heater). This program is capable of predicting house depressurization thresholds that lead to backdrafting and spillage of combustion appliances; however, validation reports of the program being applied for this purpose are not readily available. The purpose of this report is to assess VENT-II’s ability to predict combustion gas spillage events due to house depressurization by comparing VENT-II simulated results with experimental data for four appliance configurations. The results show that VENT-II correctly predicts depressurizations resulting in spillagemore » for natural draft appliances operating in cold and mild outdoor conditions, but not for hot conditions. In the latter case, the predicted depressurizations depend on whether the vent section is defined as part of the vent connector or the common vent when setting up the model. Overall, the VENTII solver requires further investigation before it can be used reliably to predict spillage caused by depressurization over a full year of weather conditions, especially where hot conditions occur.« less

  11. Observed Type II supernova colours from the Carnegie Supernova Project-I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jaeger, T.; Anderson, J. P.; Galbany, L.; González-Gaitán, S.; Hamuy, M.; Phillips, M. M.; Stritzinger, M. D.; Contreras, C.; Folatelli, G.; Gutiérrez, C. P.; Hsiao, E. Y.; Morrell, N.; Suntzeff, N. B.; Dessart, L.; Filippenko, A. V.

    2018-06-01

    We present a study of observed Type II supernova (SN II) colours using optical/near-infrared photometric data from the Carnegie Supernovae Project-I. We analyse four colours (B - V, u - g, g - r, and g - Y) and find that SN II colour curves can be described by two linear regimes during the photospheric phase. The first (s1, colour) is steeper and has a median duration of ˜40 d. The second, shallower slope (s2, colour) lasts until the end of the `plateau' (˜80 d). The two slopes correlate in the sense that steeper initial colour curves also imply steeper colour curves at later phases. As suggested by recent studies, SNe II form a continuous population of objects from the colour point of view as well. We investigate correlations between the observed colours and a range of photometric and spectroscopic parameters including the absolute magnitude, the V-band light-curve slopes, and metal-line strengths. We find that less luminous SNe II appear redder, a trend that we argue is not driven by uncorrected host-galaxy reddening. While there is significant dispersion, we find evidence that redder SNe II (mainly at early epochs) display stronger metal-line equivalent widths. Host-galaxy reddening does not appear to be a dominant parameter, neither driving observed trends nor dominating the dispersion in observed colours. Intrinsic SN II colours are most probably dominated by photospheric temperature differences, with progenitor metallicity possibly playing a minor role. Such temperature differences could be related to differences in progenitor radius, together with the presence or absence of circumstellar material close to the progenitor stars.

  12. HART-II Acoustic Predictions using a Coupled CFD/CSD Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

    2009-01-01

    This paper documents results to date from the Rotorcraft Acoustic Characterization and Mitigation activity under the NASA Subsonic Rotary Wing Project. The primary goal of this activity is to develop a NASA rotorcraft impulsive noise prediction capability which uses first principles fluid dynamics and structural dynamics. During this effort, elastic blade motion and co-processing capabilities have been included in a recent version of the computational fluid dynamics code (CFD). The CFD code is loosely coupled to computational structural dynamics (CSD) code using new interface codes. The CFD/CSD coupled solution is then used to compute impulsive noise on a plane under the rotor using the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings solver. This code system is then applied to a range of cases from the Higher Harmonic Aeroacoustic Rotor Test II (HART-II) experiment. For all cases presented, the full experimental configuration (i.e., rotor and wind tunnel sting mount) are used in the coupled CFD/CSD solutions. Results show good correlation between measured and predicted loading and loading time derivative at the only measured radial station. A contributing factor for a typically seen loading mean-value offset between measured data and predictions data is examined. Impulsive noise predictions on the measured microphone plane under the rotor compare favorably with measured mid-frequency noise for all cases. Flow visualization of the BL and MN cases shows that vortex structures generated in the prediction method are consist with measurements. Future application of the prediction method is discussed.

  13. Pretest Predictions for Phase II Ventilation Tests

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yiming Sun

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, and concrete pipe walls that will be developed during the Phase II ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as inputs to validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation, and be used to support the repository subsurface design. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the Phase II ventilation tests, and describe numerical methods that are used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. The calculation is limitedmore » to thermal effect only. This engineering work activity is conducted in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for: Subsurface Performance Testing for License Application (LA) for Fiscal Year 2001'' (CRWMS M&O 2000d). This technical work plan (TWP) includes an AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', activity evaluation (CRWMS M&O 2000d, Addendum A) that has determined this activity is subject to the YMP quality assurance (QA) program. The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12Q procedure, ''Calculations''. Additional background information regarding this activity is contained in the ''Development Plan for Ventilation Pretest Predictive Calculation'' (DP) (CRWMS M&O 2000a).« less

  14. Observations of local interstellar Mg I and Mg II

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bruhweiler, F.C.; Oegerle, W.; Weiler, E.

    1984-11-01

    Copernicus and IUE observations of 5 stars within 50 pc of the Sun were combined to study the ionization of magnesium in the Local Interstellar Medium (LISM). The high resolution Copernicus spectrometer was used to detect interstellar MG I 2852 in the spectra of alpha Gru, alpha Eri, and alpha Lyr, while placing upper limits on Mg I in the spectra of alpha CMa and alpha PsA. Observations of Mg II 2795, 2802 for these stars were also obtained with IUE and Copernicus. The column densities of Mg I and Mg II are used to place constraints on the temperaturemore » of the LISM.« less

  15. Observations of Local Interstellar Mg I and Mg II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bruhweiler, F. C.; Oegerle, W.; Weiler, E.; Stencel, R. E.; Kondo, Y.

    1984-01-01

    Copernicus and IUE observations of 5 stars within 50 pc of the Sun were combined to study the ionization of magnesium in the local interstellar medium (LISM). The high resolution Copernicus spectrometer was used to detect interstellar MG I 2852 in the spectra of alpha Gru, alpha Eri, and alpha Lyr, while placing upper limits on Mg I in the spectra of alpha CMa and alpha PsA. Observations of Mg II 2795, 2802 for these stars were also obtained with IUE and Copernicus. The column densities of Mg I and Mg II are used to place constraints on the temperature of the LISM.

  16. Comparison of mortality prediction models and validation of SAPS II in critically ill burns patients.

    PubMed

    Pantet, O; Faouzi, M; Brusselaers, N; Vernay, A; Berger, M M

    2016-06-30

    Specific burn outcome prediction scores such as the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Ryan, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) and revised Baux scores have been extensively studied. Validation studies of the critical care score SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) have included burns patients but not addressed them as a cohort. The study aimed at comparing their performance in a Swiss burns intensive care unit (ICU) and to observe whether they were affected by a standardized definition of inhalation injury. We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all consecutive ICU burn admissions (n=492) between 1996 and 2013: 5 epochs were defined by protocol changes. As required for SAPS II calculation, stays <24h were excluded. Data were collected on age, gender, total body surface area burned (TBSA) and inhalation injury (systematic standardized diagnosis since 2006). Study epochs were compared (χ2 test, ANOVA). Score performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. SAPS II performed well (AUC 0.89), particularly in burns <40% TBSA (AUC 0.93). Revised Baux and ABSI scores were not affected by the standardized diagnosis of inhalation injury and showed the best performance (AUC 0.92 and 0.91 respectively). In contrast, the accuracy of the BOBI and Ryan scores was lower (AUC 0.84 and 0.81) and reduced after 2006. The excellent predictive performance of the classic scores (revised Baux score and ABSI) was confirmed. SAPS II was nearly as accurate, particularly in burns <40% TBSA. Ryan and BOBI scores were least accurate, as they heavily weight inhalation injury.

  17. Comparison of mortality prediction models and validation of SAPS II in critically ill burns patients

    PubMed Central

    Pantet, O.; Faouzi, M.; Brusselaers, N.; Vernay, A.; Berger, M.M.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Specific burn outcome prediction scores such as the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), Ryan, Belgian Outcome of Burn Injury (BOBI) and revised Baux scores have been extensively studied. Validation studies of the critical care score SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score) have included burns patients but not addressed them as a cohort. The study aimed at comparing their performance in a Swiss burns intensive care unit (ICU) and to observe whether they were affected by a standardized definition of inhalation injury. We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all consecutive ICU burn admissions (n=492) between 1996 and 2013: 5 epochs were defined by protocol changes. As required for SAPS II calculation, stays <24h were excluded. Data were collected on age, gender, total body surface area burned (TBSA) and inhalation injury (systematic standardized diagnosis since 2006). Study epochs were compared (χ2 test, ANOVA). Score performance was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. SAPS II performed well (AUC 0.89), particularly in burns <40% TBSA (AUC 0.93). Revised Baux and ABSI scores were not affected by the standardized diagnosis of inhalation injury and showed the best performance (AUC 0.92 and 0.91 respectively). In contrast, the accuracy of the BOBI and Ryan scores was lower (AUC 0.84 and 0.81) and reduced after 2006. The excellent predictive performance of the classic scores (revised Baux score and ABSI) was confirmed. SAPS II was nearly as accurate, particularly in burns <40% TBSA. Ryan and BOBI scores were least accurate, as they heavily weight inhalation injury. PMID:28149234

  18. Experimental observation of topological Fermi arcs in type-II Weyl semimetal MoTe2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Ke; Wan, Guoliang; Deng, Peng; Zhang, Kenan; Ding, Shijie; Wang, Eryin; Yan, Mingzhe; Huang, Huaqing; Zhang, Hongyun; Xu, Zhilin; Denlinger, Jonathan; Fedorov, Alexei; Yang, Haitao; Duan, Wenhui; Yao, Hong; Wu, Yang; Fan, Shoushan; Zhang, Haijun; Chen, Xi; Zhou, Shuyun

    2016-12-01

    Weyl semimetal is a new quantum state of matter hosting the condensed matter physics counterpart of the relativistic Weyl fermions originally introduced in high-energy physics. The Weyl semimetal phase realized in the TaAs class of materials features multiple Fermi arcs arising from topological surface states and exhibits novel quantum phenomena, such as a chiral anomaly-induced negative magnetoresistance and possibly emergent supersymmetry. Recently it was proposed theoretically that a new type (type-II) of Weyl fermion that arises due to the breaking of Lorentz invariance, which does not have a counterpart in high-energy physics, can emerge as topologically protected touching between electron and hole pockets. Here, we report direct experimental evidence of topological Fermi arcs in the predicted type-II Weyl semimetal MoTe2 (refs ,,). The topological surface states are confirmed by directly observing the surface states using bulk- and surface-sensitive angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and the quasi-particle interference pattern between the putative topological Fermi arcs in scanning tunnelling microscopy. By establishing MoTe2 as an experimental realization of a type-II Weyl semimetal, our work opens up opportunities for probing the physical properties of this exciting new state.

  19. Improved methods for predicting peptide binding affinity to MHC class II molecules.

    PubMed

    Jensen, Kamilla Kjaergaard; Andreatta, Massimo; Marcatili, Paolo; Buus, Søren; Greenbaum, Jason A; Yan, Zhen; Sette, Alessandro; Peters, Bjoern; Nielsen, Morten

    2018-07-01

    Major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II) molecules are expressed on the surface of professional antigen-presenting cells where they display peptides to T helper cells, which orchestrate the onset and outcome of many host immune responses. Understanding which peptides will be presented by the MHC-II molecule is therefore important for understanding the activation of T helper cells and can be used to identify T-cell epitopes. We here present updated versions of two MHC-II-peptide binding affinity prediction methods, NetMHCII and NetMHCIIpan. These were constructed using an extended data set of quantitative MHC-peptide binding affinity data obtained from the Immune Epitope Database covering HLA-DR, HLA-DQ, HLA-DP and H-2 mouse molecules. We show that training with this extended data set improved the performance for peptide binding predictions for both methods. Both methods are publicly available at www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCII-2.3 and www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-3.2. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Far-infrared observations of the evolved H II region M16

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcbreen, B.; Fazio, G. G.; Jaffe, D. T.

    1982-01-01

    The results of far infrared (FIR) observations of the larger H II region M16, associated with the young open star cluster NGC 6611, are discussed. Three FIR sources detected on an extended ridge of FIR emission within the scanned region are described. The observations confirm that M16 is an H II region in a late stage of evolution. The H II region has expanded and is now extremely density bounded, consisting of an extended region of ionized gas and a series of ionization fronts located at the surrounding molecular cloud boundaries nearest to the exciting OB star cluster. The FIR radiation arises from heated dust at these boundaries.

  1. Observations of Radical Precursors during TexAQS II: Findings and Implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olaguer, E. P.; Lefer, B. L.; Rappenglueck, B.; Pinto, J. P.

    2009-12-01

    The Texas Environmental Research Consortium (TERC) sponsored and helped organize significant components of the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS II). Some of the TERC-sponsored experiments, most notably those associated with the TexAQS II Radical and Aerosol Measurement Project (TRAMP) sited on top of the Moody Tower at the University of Houston, found evidence for the importance of short-lived radical sources such as formaldehyde (HCHO) and nitrous acid (HONO) in increasing ozone productivity. During TRAMP, daytime HCHO pulses as large as 32 ppb were observed and attributed to industrial activities upwind in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC), and HCHO peaks as large as 52 ppb were detected by in-situ surface monitors in the HSC. In addition, an instrumented Piper Aztec aircraft observed plumes of apparent primary formaldehyde in flares from petrochemical facilities in the HSC. In one such combustion plume, depleted of ozone by large NOx emissions, the Piper Aztec measured an HCHO-to-CO ratio three times that of mobile sources. HCHO from uncounted primary sources or ozonolysis of underestimated olefin emissions could significantly increase ozone productivity in Houston beyond previous expectations. Simulations with the CAMx model show that additional emissions of HCHO from industrial flares can increase peak ozone in Houston by up to 30 ppb, depending on conditions in the planetary boundary layer. Other findings from TexAQS II include significant concentrations of HONO throughout the day, well in excess of current air quality model predictions, with large nocturnal vertical gradients indicating a surface or near-surface source of HONO, and large concentrations of night-time radicals (~30 ppt HO2). Additional HONO sources could increase daytime ozone by more than 10 ppb. Improving the representation of primary and secondary HCHO and HONO in air quality models could enhance the effectiveness of simulated control strategies, and thus make ozone attainment

  2. Analysis of Antarctic Denitrification in 2003 Winter Observed by ILAS-II Onboard the ADEOS-II Satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakajima, H.; Saeki, K.; Sugita, T.

    2005-12-01

    Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) play an important role in ozone destruction in both Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere in winter. They take up gas-phase nitric acid (HNO3) and grow up when temperature is below nitric acid saturation temperature (TNAT). When PSC becomes large, it starts to descend and nitric acid is removed from the air mass, resulting in denitrification. The Improved Limb Atmospheric Spectrometer-II (ILAS-II) onboard the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II) successfully made measurements for the whole Antarctic winter in 2003. ILAS-II measured vertical profiles of O3, HNO3, NO2, H2O, N2O, CH4, ClONO2, N2O5, etc. in addition to the aerosol extinction coefficients at 780 nm. In this study, we analyzed denitrification from ILAS-II HNO3 and N2O data in regard to temperature history on the trajectory. The quantity of denitrification was estimated from the difference between measured HNO3 and HNO3* assumed from HNO3-- N2O correlation. In this analysis, it was found that denitrification was observed only for those airmass that experienced temperature below TICE (ice saturation temperature) in late June, 2003. In late July, it was found that most airmass inside the polar vortex was denitrified regardless of temperature history. This suggests that permanent denitrification has occurred in June-July period. The transition of relationship between denitrification and airmass temperature history was discovered from the ILAS-II data. Also, major types of PSC have found to be changed from nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) in June to ice in July, from the ILAS-II data. This is considered to be due to the lack of nitric acid in the airmass due to the denitrification in July.

  3. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method

    PubMed Central

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-01-01

    Background Antigen presenting cells (APCs) sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II) molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. Results The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. Conclusion The SMM-align method was

  4. Prediction of MHC class II binding affinity using SMM-align, a novel stabilization matrix alignment method.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Lund, Ole

    2007-07-04

    Antigen presenting cells (APCs) sample the extra cellular space and present peptides from here to T helper cells, which can be activated if the peptides are of foreign origin. The peptides are presented on the surface of the cells in complex with major histocompatibility class II (MHC II) molecules. Identification of peptides that bind MHC II molecules is thus a key step in rational vaccine design and developing methods for accurate prediction of the peptide:MHC interactions play a central role in epitope discovery. The MHC class II binding groove is open at both ends making the correct alignment of a peptide in the binding groove a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. Here, we present a novel stabilization matrix alignment method, SMM-align, that allows for direct prediction of peptide:MHC binding affinities. The predictive performance of the method is validated on a large MHC class II benchmark data set covering 14 HLA-DR (human MHC) and three mouse H2-IA alleles. The predictive performance of the SMM-align method was demonstrated to be superior to that of the Gibbs sampler, TEPITOPE, SVRMHC, and MHCpred methods. Cross validation between peptide data set obtained from different sources demonstrated that direct incorporation of peptide length potentially results in over-fitting of the binding prediction method. Focusing on amino terminal peptide flanking residues (PFR), we demonstrate a consistent gain in predictive performance by favoring binding registers with a minimum PFR length of two amino acids. Visualizing the binding motif as obtained by the SMM-align and TEPITOPE methods highlights a series of fundamental discrepancies between the two predicted motifs. For the DRB1*1302 allele for instance, the TEPITOPE method favors basic amino acids at most anchor positions, whereas the SMM-align method identifies a preference for hydrophobic or neutral amino acids at the anchors. The SMM-align method was shown to outperform other

  5. Validation of APACHE II scoring system at 24 hours after admission as a prognostic tool in urosepsis: A prospective observational study.

    PubMed

    VijayGanapathy, Sundaramoorthy; Karthikeyan, VIlvapathy Senguttuvan; Sreenivas, Jayaram; Mallya, Ashwin; Keshavamurthy, Ramaiah

    2017-11-01

    Urosepsis implies clinically evident severe infection of urinary tract with features of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We validate the role of a single Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score at 24 hours after admission in predicting mortality in urosepsis. A prospective observational study was done in 178 patients admitted with urosepsis in the Department of Urology, in a tertiary care institute from January 2015 to August 2016. Patients >18 years diagnosed as urosepsis using SIRS criteria with positive urine or blood culture for bacteria were included. At 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit, APACHE II score was calculated using 12 physiological variables, age and chronic health. Mean±standard deviation (SD) APACHE II score was 26.03±7.03. It was 24.31±6.48 in survivors and 32.39±5.09 in those expired (p<0.001). Among patients undergoing surgery, mean±SD score was higher (30.74±4.85) than among survivors (24.30±6.54) (p<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed area under curve (AUC) of 0.825 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 56.4% specific to predict mortality. Mean±SD score in those undergoing surgery was 25.22±6.70 and was lesser than those who did not undergo surgery (28.44±7.49) (p=0.007). ROC analysis revealed AUC of 0.760 with cutoff 25.5 being 94.7% sensitive and 45.6% specific to predict mortality even after surgery. A single APACHE II score assessed at 24 hours after admission was able to predict morbidity, mortality, need for surgical intervention, length of hospitalization, treatment success and outcome in urosepsis patients.

  6. A Combined MG II/CA II Survey of Stellar Magnetic Activity in the Solar Neighborhood

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wicklund, B. M.; Donahue, R. A.; Dobson, A. K.; Baliunas, Sallie L.

    1997-01-01

    We use nearly contemporaneus low-resolution IUE observations of Mg II h + k emission and Mount Wilson Observatory Ca II H + K S indices for 33 pairs of observations of lower main sequence stars to formulate a relationship that will permit accurate predictions of S values as a function of (B - V) color and Mg II h + k flux. The resulting relationship is useful because it will extend the set of solar neighborhood stars for which a uniform estimate of chromospheric activity is available to include stars that are not observable from Mount Wilson as well as providing additional estimates of activity levels for stars that are on the Mount Wilson HK Project observing list.

  7. Chromospheric Anemone Jets Observed with Hinode/SOT and Hida Ca II Spectroheliograph

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morita, S.; Shibata, K.; Ueno, S.; Ichimoto, K.; Kitai, R.; Otsuji, K.

    2012-08-01

    We present the first simultaneous observations of chromospheric “anemone” jets in active regions with the Ca II H broadband filetergram on the Hinode/SOT and with the Ca II K spetroheliogram on the Domeless Solar Telescope (DST) at the Hida Observatory. During coordinated observation period, 9 chromospheric anemone jets were simultaneously observed with the two instruments. These observations revealed: (1) the jets are generated in the low chromosphere because these cannot be seen in Ca II K3, (2) these jets are associated with mixed polarity regions which are either small emerging flux regions or moving magnetic features, (3) the Ca II K line often show red or blue asymmetry in K2/K1 component; the footpoint of the jets associated with emerging flux regions often show red asymmetry (2-16 km s-1), while the one with moving magnetic features show blue asymmetry (˜5 km s-1). The magnetic cancellations were observed at the footpoint of the jets. The canceling rates are of order of 1016 Mx s-1, and the resulting magnetic energy release rate (1.1-10)×1024 erg s-1, with the total energy release (1-13)×1026 erg for the duration of the magnetic cancellations, ˜130 s. These are comparable to the estimated total energy, ˜1026 erg, in a single chromospheric anemone jet.

  8. Active-site solvent replenishment observed during human carbonic anhydrase II catalysis.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jin Kyun; Lomelino, Carrie L; Avvaru, Balendu Sankara; Mahon, Brian P; McKenna, Robert; Park, SangYoun; Kim, Chae Un

    2018-01-01

    Human carbonic anhydrase II (hCA II) is a zinc metalloenzyme that catalyzes the reversible hydration/dehydration of CO 2 /HCO 3 - . Although hCA II has been extensively studied to investigate the proton-transfer process that occurs in the active site, its underlying mechanism is still not fully understood. Here, ultrahigh-resolution crystallographic structures of hCA II cryocooled under CO 2 pressures of 7.0 and 2.5 atm are presented. The structures reveal new intermediate solvent states of hCA II that provide crystallographic snapshots during the restoration of the proton-transfer water network in the active site. Specifically, a new intermediate water (W I ') is observed next to the previously observed intermediate water W I , and they are both stabilized by the five water molecules at the entrance to the active site (the entrance conduit). Based on these structures, a water network-restructuring mechanism is proposed, which takes place at the active site after the nucleophilic attack of OH - on CO 2 . This mechanism explains how the zinc-bound water (W Zn ) and W1 are replenished, which are directly responsible for the reconnection of the His64-mediated proton-transfer water network. This study provides the first 'physical' glimpse of how a water reservoir flows into the hCA II active site during its catalytic activity.

  9. DEFPOS H α observations of H II regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aksaker, N.; Sahan, M.; Yegingil, I.; Emrahoglu, N.

    2011-12-01

    We present H α emission line measurements of northern bright H II regions selected from the Sharpless (1959) catalog near the Galactic plane ( b ⩽ ± 6°). A total of 10 H II regions were observed with DEFPOS (Dual Etalon Fabry-Perot Optical Spectrometer) system at the f/48 Coude focus of 150 cm RTT150 telescope located at TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) in Antalya/Turkey. The intensities, the local standard of rest (LSR) velocities ( VLSR), and the linewidths (Full Width Half Maximum: FWHM) of the H α emission line from our observations were in the range of 84 to 745 Rayleigh ( R [one Rayleigh ( R) is 10 6/4 π photons cm -2 sr -1 s -1 = 2.4110 -7 erg cm -2 sr -1 s -1 at H α and corresponds to an emission measure (EM=∫ne2dl) of 2.3 pc cm -6 for a gas temperature of 8000 K, where ne is the averaged electron density within an emitting region in the interstellar medium; dl is distance element to the source region ( Haffner et al., 2003; Reynolds et al., 2005), 3 to -43 km s -1 and 30 to 73 km s -1, respectively. The LSR velocities and the linewidths from the data were obtained and compared with early results. We found that our results are in close agreement with them. Moreover, associated stars of some of the H II regions were updated by analyzing their location, velocities, and brightness.

  10. Simulations of star-forming molecular clouds: observational predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shangjia; Hartmann, Lee; Kuznetsova, Aleksandra; Abelardo Zamora, Manuel

    2018-01-01

    Observations of protostellar molecular cloud cores can be used to test theories of star formation. However, observational results can be biased because of limited information: (a) only two spatial dimensions and one velocity dimension can be measured, (b) and cores generally are not spherically symmetric. We use numerical simulations of the formation and collapse of molecular gas with sink particles to make observational predictions. We use the radiative transfer code LIME to predict CO and NH3 channel maps. We find reasonable agreement with observed velocity structures and gradients but occasional large differences depending on viewing angle.

  11. SOX9 expression predicts relapse of stage II colon cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Marcker Espersen, Maiken Lise; Linnemann, Dorte; Christensen, Ib Jarle; Alamili, Mahdi; Troelsen, Jesper T; Høgdall, Estrid

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate if the protein expression of sex-determining region y-box 9 (SOX9) in primary tumors could predict relapse of stage II colon cancer patients. One hundred forty-four patients with stage II primary colon cancer were retrospectively enrolled in the study. SOX9 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry, and mismatch repair status was assessed by both immunohistochemistry and promoter hypermethylation assay. High SOX9 expression at the invasive front was significantly associated with lower risk of relapse when including the SOX9 expression as a continuous variable (from low to high expression) in univariate (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56-0.94; P = .01) and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.58-0.96; P = .02), adjusting for mismatch repair deficiency and histopathologic risk factors. Conversely, low SOX9 expression at the invasive front was significantly associated with high risk of relapse, when including SOX9 expression as a dichotomous variable, in univariate (HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.14-4.69; P = .02) and multivariate analyses (HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.14-4.69; P = .02), adjusting for histopathologic risk factors and mismatch repair deficiency. In conclusion, high levels of SOX9 of primary stage II colon tumors predict low risk of relapse, whereas low levels of SOX9 predict high risk of relapse. SOX9 may have an important value as a biomarker when evaluating risk of relapse for personalized treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Relation Between Type II Bursts and CMEs Inferred from STEREO Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Thompson, W.; Davila, J.; Kaiser, M. L.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Bougeret, J.-L.; Hoawrd, R. A.

    2010-01-01

    The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe coronal mass ejections (CMEs) a in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be approximately 1.5Rs (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfv?n speed profile has a minimum value. We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfv?n speed peaks (?3Rs ? 4Rs). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5Rs to 4Rs. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (approximately 1.5 Rs) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2 Rs) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1Rs - 2Rs by the time the CME left the LASCO

  13. Relation Between Type II Bursts and CMEs Inferred from STEREO Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Thompson, W.; Davila, J.; Kaiser, M.; Yashiro, S.; Maelekae, P.; Michalek, G.; Bougret, J.-L.; Howard, R. A.

    2009-01-01

    The inner coronagraph (COR1) of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has made it possible to observe CMEs in the spatial domain overlapping with that of the metric type II radio bursts. The type II bursts were associated with generally weak flares (mostly B and C class soft X-ray flares), but the CMEs were quite energetic. Using CME data for a set of type II bursts during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we determine the CME height when the type II bursts start, thus giving an estimate of the heliocentric distance at which CME-driven shocks form. This distance has been determined to be approx. 1.5Rs (solar radii), which coincides with the distance at which the Alfven speed profile has a minimum value.We also use type II radio observations from STEREO/WAVES and Wind/WAVES observations to show that CMEs with moderate speed drive either weak shocks or no shock at all when they attain a height where the Alfven speed peaks (approx. 3Rs - 4Rs). Thus the shocks seem to be most efficient in accelerating electrons in the heliocentric distance range of 1.5Rs to 4Rs. By combining the radial variation of the CME speed in the inner corona (CME speed increase) and interplanetary medium (speed decrease) we were able to correctly account for the deviations from the universal drift-rate spectrum of type II bursts, thus confirming the close physical connection between type II bursts and CMEs. The average height (approx 1.5Rs) of STEREO CMEs at the time of type II bursts is smaller than that (2.2Rs) obtained for SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) CMEs. We suggest that this may indicate, at least partly, the density reduction in the corona between the maximum and declining phases, so a given plasma level occurs closer to the Sun in the latter phase. In two cases, there was a diffuse shock-like feature ahead of the main body of the CME, indicating a standoff distance of 1Rs - 2Rs by the time the CME left the LASCO field of view.

  14. Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

    2017-02-01

    Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

  15. Inferring interventional predictions from observational learning data.

    PubMed

    Meder, Bjorn; Hagmayer, York; Waldmann, Michael R

    2008-02-01

    Previous research has shown that people are capable of deriving correct predictions for previously unseen actions from passive observations of causal systems (Waldmann & Hagmayer, 2005). However, these studies were limited, since learning data were presented as tabulated data only, which may have turned the task more into a reasoning rather than a learning task. In two experiments, we therefore presented learners with trial-by-trial observational learning input referring to a complex causal model consisting of four events. To test the robustness of the capacity to derive correct observational and interventional inferences, we pitted causal order against the temporal order of learning events. The results show that people are, in principle, capable of deriving correct predictions after purely observational trial-by-trial learning, even with relatively complex causal models. However, conflicting temporal information can impair performance, particularly when the inferences require taking alternative causal pathways into account.

  16. Prediction of the binding affinities of peptides to class II MHC using a regularized thermodynamic model

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The binding of peptide fragments of extracellular peptides to class II MHC is a crucial event in the adaptive immune response. Each MHC allotype generally binds a distinct subset of peptides and the enormous number of possible peptide epitopes prevents their complete experimental characterization. Computational methods can utilize the limited experimental data to predict the binding affinities of peptides to class II MHC. Results We have developed the Regularized Thermodynamic Average, or RTA, method for predicting the affinities of peptides binding to class II MHC. RTA accounts for all possible peptide binding conformations using a thermodynamic average and includes a parameter constraint for regularization to improve accuracy on novel data. RTA was shown to achieve higher accuracy, as measured by AUC, than SMM-align on the same data for all 17 MHC allotypes examined. RTA also gave the highest accuracy on all but three allotypes when compared with results from 9 different prediction methods applied to the same data. In addition, the method correctly predicted the peptide binding register of 17 out of 18 peptide-MHC complexes. Finally, we found that suboptimal peptide binding registers, which are often ignored in other prediction methods, made significant contributions of at least 50% of the total binding energy for approximately 20% of the peptides. Conclusions The RTA method accurately predicts peptide binding affinities to class II MHC and accounts for multiple peptide binding registers while reducing overfitting through regularization. The method has potential applications in vaccine design and in understanding autoimmune disorders. A web server implementing the RTA prediction method is available at http://bordnerlab.org/RTA/. PMID:20089173

  17. Concurrent and Predictive Validity of the Phelps Kindergarten Readiness Scale-II

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncan, Jennifer; Rafter, Erin M.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to establish the concurrent and predictive validity of the Phelps Kindergarten Readiness Scale, Second Edition (PKRS-II; L. Phelps, 2003). Seventy-four kindergarten students of diverse ethnic backgrounds enrolled in a northeastern suburban school participated in the study. The concurrent administration of the…

  18. Class II composite resin restorations: faster, easier, predictable.

    PubMed

    Jackson, R D

    2016-11-18

    Composite resin continues to displace amalgam as the preferred direct restorative material in developed countries. Even though composite materials have evolved to include nanoparticles with high physical properties and low shrinkage stress, dentists have been challenged to efficiently create quality, long lasting, predictable restorations. Unlike amalgam, composite resin cannot be condensed making the establishment of a predictable, proper contact more difficult. In addition, composite requires an understanding of adhesives and an appreciation for their exacting application. These facts combined with the precise adaptation and light-curing of multiple layers makes placement of quality Class II composite restorations tedious and time-consuming. For private practicing dentists, it can also have an effect on economic productivity. Clinicians have always wanted an easier, efficient placement technique for posterior composite restorations that rivals that for amalgam. It appears that advances in instrumentation, materials and technology have finally delivered it.

  19. 91. World War II observation post, Cabarello level looking from ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    91. World War II observation post, Cabarello level looking from Carmen Bastion (similar to HABS PR-48-24) - Castillo de San Felipe del Morro, Northwest end of San Juan, San Juan, San Juan Municipio, PR

  20. Modeling Fe II Emission and Revised Fe II (UV) Empirical Templates for the Seyfert 1 Galaxy I Zw 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruhweiler, F.; Verner, E.

    2008-03-01

    We use the narrow-lined broad-line region (BLR) of the Seyfert 1 galaxy, I Zw 1, as a laboratory for modeling the ultraviolet (UV) Fe II 2100-3050 Å emission complex. We calculate a grid of Fe II emission spectra representative of BLR clouds and compare them with the observed I Zw 1 spectrum. Our predicted spectrum for log [nH/(cm -3) ] = 11.0, log [ΦH/(cm -2 s-1) ] = 20.5, and ξ/(1 km s-1) = 20, using Cloudy and an 830 level model atom for Fe II with energies up to 14.06 eV, gives a better fit to the UV Fe II emission than models with fewer levels. Our analysis indicates (1) the observed UV Fe II emission must be corrected for an underlying Fe II pseudocontinuum; (2) Fe II emission peaks can be misidentified as that of other ions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with narrow-lined BLRs possibly affecting deduced physical parameters; (3) the shape of 4200-4700 Å Fe II emission in I Zw 1 and other AGNs is a relative indicator of narrow-line region (NLR) and BLR Fe II emission; (4) predicted ratios of Lyα, C III], and Fe II emission relative to Mg II λ2800 agree with extinction corrected observed I Zw 1 fluxes, except for C IV λ1549 (5) the sensitivity of Fe II emission strength to microturbulence ξ casts doubt on existing relative Fe/Mg abundances derived from Fe II (UV)/Mg II flux ratios. Our calculated Fe II emission spectra, suitable for BLRs in AGNs, are available at http://iacs.cua.edu/people/verner/FeII. Based on observations made with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 05-26555.

  1. Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

    PubMed Central

    Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

    2009-01-01

    Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

  2. Simultaneous observations of Ca II K and Mg II k in T Tauri stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calvet, N.; Basri, G.; Imhoff, C. L.; Giampapa, M. S.

    1985-01-01

    The first simultaneous, calibrated observations of the Ca II K and Mg II k resonance lines in T Tauri stars are presented. It is found that for T Tauri stars with mass greater than 1.5 solar mass, which have radiative cores and tend to be fast rotators, the k line seems to arise in an extended region (probably also responsible for the H-alpha emission), whereas the K line apparently originates closer to the highly inhomogeneous stellar surface. The lower mass stars, which are fully convective and tend to be slow rotators, are more easily described by a largely chromospheric model, consistent with main-sequence activity structures but at greater values of the nonradiative flux. The strongest emission-line stars in the low-mass group, however, are also likely to have extended k line regions.

  3. Impact of Type II Spicules in the Corona: Simulations and Synthetic Observables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez-Sykora, Juan; De Pontieu, Bart; De Moortel, Ineke; Hansteen, Viggo H.; Carlsson, Mats

    2018-06-01

    The role of type II spicules in the corona has been a much debated topic in recent years. This paper aims to shed light on the impact of type II spicules in the corona using novel 2.5D radiative MHD simulations, including ion–neutral interaction effects with the Bifrost code. We find that the formation of simulated type II spicules, driven by the release of magnetic tension, impacts the corona in various manners. Associated with the formation of spicules, the corona exhibits (1) magneto-acoustic shocks and flows, which supply mass to coronal loops, and (2) transversal magnetic waves and electric currents that propagate at Alfvén speeds. The transversal waves and electric currents, generated by the spicule’s driver and lasting for many minutes, are dissipated and heat the associated loop. These complex interactions in the corona can be connected with blueshifted secondary components in coronal spectral lines (red–blue asymmetries) observed with Hinode/EIS and SOHO/SUMER, as well as the EUV counterpart of type II spicules and propagating coronal disturbances observed with the 171 Å and 193 Å SDO/AIA channels.

  4. The Mg II h and k lines. II - Comparison with synthesized profiles and Ca II K. [solar spectra

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ayres, T. R.; Linsky, J. L.

    1976-01-01

    Measured high-dispersion center and limb profiles of the solar Mg II h and k resonance lines are compared with synthetic spectra computed with a partial-redistribution formalism and based on several upper-photosphere and lower-chromosphere temperature distributions. Profiles of the analogously formed Ca II K resonance line are also synthesized for the same atmospheric models. The spectrum-synthesis approach is outlined, and the collisional and fixed radiative rates appropriate to the adopted model atoms and solar atmosphere are discussed. It is found that the HSRA and VAL models predict systematically lower intensities in the h, k, and K inner wings than observed and that models with a somewhat higher minimum temperature (about 4450 K) can reproduce the measured inner wings and limb darkening. A 'Ca II' solar model with a minimum temperature of 4450 K is proposed as an alternative to the class of models based on continuum observations.

  5. Type II Radio Bursts Observed by STEREO/Waves and Wind/Waves instruments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krupar, V.; Magdalenic, J.; Zhukov, A.; Rodriguez, L.; Mierla, M.; Maksimovic, M.; Cecconi, B.; Santolik, O.

    2013-12-01

    Type II radio bursts are slow-drift emissions triggered by suprathermal electrons accelerated on shock fronts of propagating CMEs. We present several events at kilometric wavelengths observed by radio instruments onboard the STEREO and Wind spacecraft. The STEREO/Waves and Wind/Waves have goniopolarimetric (GP, also referred to as direction finding) capabilities that allow us to triangulate radio sources when an emission is observed by two or more spacecraft. As the GP inversion has high requirements on the signal-to-noise ratio we only have a few type II radio bursts with sufficient intensity for this analysis. We have compared obtained radio sources with white-light observations of STEREO/COR and STEREO/HI instruments. Our preliminary results indicate that radio sources are located at flanks of propagating CMEs.

  6. Prediction of SEP Peak Proton Intensity Based on CME Speed, Direction and Observations of Associated Solar Phenomena

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, I. G.; Mays, M. L.; Thompson, B. J.; Kwon, R.; Frechette, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    We assess whether a formula obtained by Richardson et al. (Solar Phys., 289, 3059, 2014; DOI 10.1007/s11207-014-0524-8) relating the intensity of 14-24 MeV protons in a solar energetic particle event at 1 AU to the solar event location and the speed of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME), may be used to "predict" the intensity of a solar energetic particle event. Starting with a subset of several hundred CMEs in the CCMC/SWRC DONKI real-time database (http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/) selected without consideration of whether they were associated with SEP events, we first use the CME speed and direction to predict the proton intensity at Earth or the STEREO spacecraft using this formula. Since most of these CMEs were not in fact associated with SEP events, many "false alarms" result. We then examine whether considering other phenomena which may accompany the CMEs, such as the X-ray flare intensity and the properties of type II and type III radio emissions, may help to reduce the false alarm rate. We also use CME parameters calculated from an ellipsoidal shell fit to multi-spacecraft CME shock observations for a smaller number of events to predict the SEP intensity. We calculate skill scores for each case and assess whether the Richardson et al. (2014) formula, using additional observations to reduce the false alarm rate, has any potential as a SEP prediction tool, assuming that the required observations could be acquired sufficiently rapidly following the onset of the related solar event/CME.

  7. Direct observation of the influence of cardiolipin and antibiotics on lipid II binding to MurJ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolla, Jani Reddy; Sauer, Joshua B.; Wu, Di; Mehmood, Shahid; Allison, Timothy M.; Robinson, Carol V.

    2018-03-01

    Translocation of lipid II across the cytoplasmic membrane is essential in peptidoglycan biogenesis. Although most steps are understood, identifying the lipid II flippase has yielded conflicting results, and the lipid II binding properties of two candidate flippases—MurJ and FtsW—remain largely unknown. Here we apply native mass spectrometry to both proteins and characterize lipid II binding. We observed lower levels of lipid II binding to FtsW compared to MurJ, consistent with MurJ having a higher affinity. Site-directed mutagenesis of MurJ suggests that mutations at A29 and D269 attenuate lipid II binding to MurJ, whereas chemical modification of A29 eliminates binding. The antibiotic ramoplanin dissociates lipid II from MurJ, whereas vancomycin binds to form a stable complex with MurJ:lipid II. Furthermore, we reveal cardiolipins associate with MurJ but not FtsW, and exogenous cardiolipins reduce lipid II binding to MurJ. These observations provide insights into determinants of lipid II binding to MurJ and suggest roles for endogenous lipids in regulating substrate binding.

  8. Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

    PubMed

    Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-03-01

    Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

  9. CD44v6 expression in patients with stage II or stage III sporadic colorectal cancer is superior to CD44 expression for predicting progression

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, LH; Lin, QL; Wei, J; Huai, YL; Wang, KJ; Yan, HY

    2015-01-01

    Background: Currently, it is difficult to predict the prognosis of patients exhibiting stage II or stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) and to identify those patients most likely to benefit from aggressive treatment. The current study was performed to examine the clinicopathological significance of CD44 and CD44v6 protein expression in these patients. Study design: We retrospectively investigated 187 consecutive patients who underwent surgery with curative intent for stage II to III CRC from 2007 to 2013 in the Beijing Civil Aviation Hospital. CD44 and CD44v6 protein expression levels were determined using immunohistochemistry and compared to the clinicopathological data. Results: Using immunohistochemical detection, CD44 expression was observed in 108 (57.75%) of the CRC patients; and its detection was significantly associated with greater invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, angiolymphatic invasion, and a more advanced pathological tumor-lymph node-metastasis (TNM) stage. CD44v6 expression was observed in 135 (72.19%) of the CRC patients; and its expression was significantly associated with a poorly differentiated histology, greater invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, angiolymphatic invasion, and a more advanced pathological TNM stage. Expression of CD44v6 was higher than that of CD44 in stage II and stage III sporadic CRC. Conclusion: CD44v6 is a more useful marker for predicting a poor prognosis in stage II and stage III sporadic CRC as compared to CD44. PMID:25755763

  10. Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II: predicting the mortality of neuro-critical disease.

    PubMed

    Su, Yingying; Wang, Miao; Liu, Yifei; Ye, Hong; Gao, Daiquan; Chen, Weibi; Zhang, Yunzhou; Zhang, Yan

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to conduct and assess a module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (MM-APACHE) II model, based on disease categories modified-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (DCM-APACHE) II model, in predicting mortality more accurately in neuro-intensive care units (N-ICUs). In total, 1686 patients entered into this prospective study. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II scores of all patients on admission and worst 24-, 48-, 72-hour scores were obtained. Neurological diagnosis on admission was classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurological infection, spinal neuromuscular (SNM) disease, and other neurological diseases. The APACHE II scores of cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurological infection patients were used for building the MM-APACHE II model. There were 1386 cases for cerebral infarction disease, intracranial hemorrhage disease, and neurological infection disease. The logistic linear regression showed that 72-hour APACHE II score (Wals  =  173.04, P < 0.001) and disease classification (Wals  =  12.51, P  =  0.02) were of importance in forecasting hospital mortality. Module modified acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II model, built on the variables of the 72-hour APACHE II score and disease category, had good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC  =  0.830)) and calibration (χ2  =  12.518, P  =  0.20), and was better than the Knaus APACHE II model (AU-ROC  =  0.778). The APACHE II severity of disease classification system cannot provide accurate prognosis for all kinds of the diseases. A MM-APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, and neurologic infection patients in N-ICU.

  11. BiodMHC: an online server for the prediction of MHC class II-peptide binding affinity.

    PubMed

    Wang, Lian; Pan, Danling; Hu, Xihao; Xiao, Jinyu; Gao, Yangyang; Zhang, Huifang; Zhang, Yan; Liu, Juan; Zhu, Shanfeng

    2009-05-01

    Effective identification of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules restricted peptides is a critical step in discovering immune epitopes. Although many online servers have been built to predict class II MHC-peptide binding affinity, they have been trained on different datasets, and thus fail in providing a unified comparison of various methods. In this paper, we present our implementation of seven popular predictive methods, namely SMM-align, ARB, SVR-pairwise, Gibbs sampler, ProPred, LP-top2, and MHCPred, on a single web server named BiodMHC (http://biod.whu.edu.cn/BiodMHC/index.html, the software is available upon request). Using a standard measure of AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curves), we compare these methods by means of not only cross validation but also prediction on independent test datasets. We find that SMM-align, ProPred, SVR-pairwise, ARB, and Gibbs sampler are the five best-performing methods. For the binding affinity prediction of class II MHC-peptide, BiodMHC provides a convenient online platform for researchers to obtain binding information simultaneously using various methods.

  12. LDEF microenvironments, observed and predicted

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourassa, R. J.; Pippin, H. G.; Gillis, J. R.

    1993-04-01

    A computer model for prediction of atomic oxygen exposure of spacecraft in low earth orbit, referred to as the primary atomic oxygen model, was originally described at the First Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) Post-Retrieval Symposium. The primary atomic oxygen model accounts for variations in orbit parameters, the condition of the atmosphere, and for the orientation of exposed surfaces relative to the direction of spacecraft motion. The use of the primary atomic oxygen model to define average atomic oxygen exposure conditions for a spacecraft is discussed and a second microenvironments computer model is described that accounts for shadowing and scattering of atomic oxygen by complex surface protrusions and indentations. Comparisons of observed and predicted erosion of fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) thermal control blankets using the models are presented. Experimental and theoretical results are in excellent agreement. Work is in progress to expand modeling capability to include ultraviolet radiation exposure and to obtain more detailed information on reflecting and scattering characteristics of material surfaces.

  13. LDEF microenvironments, observed and predicted

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bourassa, R. J.; Pippin, H. G.; Gillis, J. R.

    1993-01-01

    A computer model for prediction of atomic oxygen exposure of spacecraft in low earth orbit, referred to as the primary atomic oxygen model, was originally described at the First Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) Post-Retrieval Symposium. The primary atomic oxygen model accounts for variations in orbit parameters, the condition of the atmosphere, and for the orientation of exposed surfaces relative to the direction of spacecraft motion. The use of the primary atomic oxygen model to define average atomic oxygen exposure conditions for a spacecraft is discussed and a second microenvironments computer model is described that accounts for shadowing and scattering of atomic oxygen by complex surface protrusions and indentations. Comparisons of observed and predicted erosion of fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) thermal control blankets using the models are presented. Experimental and theoretical results are in excellent agreement. Work is in progress to expand modeling capability to include ultraviolet radiation exposure and to obtain more detailed information on reflecting and scattering characteristics of material surfaces.

  14. Prediction of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) Score Using Acoustic Measurements in a Sample of Iium Engineering Students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fikri Zanil, Muhamad; Nur Wahidah Nik Hashim, Nik; Azam, Huda

    2017-11-01

    Psychiatrist currently relies on questionnaires and interviews for psychological assessment. These conservative methods often miss true positives and might lead to death, especially in cases where a patient might be experiencing suicidal predisposition but was only diagnosed as major depressive disorder (MDD). With modern technology, an assessment tool might aid psychiatrist with a more accurate diagnosis and thus hope to reduce casualty. This project will explore on the relationship between speech features of spoken audio signal (reading) in Bahasa Malaysia with the Beck Depression Inventory scores. The speech features used in this project were Power Spectral Density (PSD), Mel-frequency Ceptral Coefficients (MFCC), Transition Parameter, formant and pitch. According to analysis, the optimum combination of speech features to predict BDI-II scores include PSD, MFCC and Transition Parameters. The linear regression approach with sequential forward/backward method was used to predict the BDI-II scores using reading speech. The result showed 0.4096 mean absolute error (MAE) for female reading speech. For male, the BDI-II scores successfully predicted 100% less than 1 scores difference with MAE of 0.098437. A prediction system called Depression Severity Evaluator (DSE) was developed. The DSE managed to predict one out of five subjects. Although the prediction rate was low, the system precisely predict the score within the maximum difference of 4.93 for each person. This demonstrates that the scores are not random numbers.

  15. Height formation of bright points observed by IRIS in Mg II line wings during flux emergence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grubecka, M.; Schmieder, B.; Berlicki, A.; Heinzel, P.; Dalmasse, K.; Mein, P.

    2016-09-01

    Context. A flux emergence in the active region AR 111850 was observed on September 24, 2013 with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Many bright points are associated with the new emerging flux and show enhancement brightening in the UV spectra. Aims: The aim of this work is to compute the altitude formation of the compact bright points (CBs) observed in Mg II lines in the context of searching Ellerman bombs (EBs). Methods: IRIS provided two large dense rasters of spectra in Mg II h and k lines, Mg II triplet, C II and Si IV lines covering all the active region and slit jaws in the two bandpasses (1400 Å and 2796 Å) starting at 11:44 UT and 15:39 UT, and lasting 20 min each. Synthetic profiles of Mg II and Hα lines are computed with non-local thermodynamic equlibrium (NLTE) radiative transfer treatment in 1D solar atmosphere model including a hotspot region defined by three parameters: temperature, altitude, and width. Results: Within the two IRIS rasters, 74 CBs are detected in the far wings of the Mg II lines (at +/-1 Å and 3.5 Å). Around 10% of CBs have a signature in Si IV and CII. NLTE models with a hotspot located in the low atmosphere were found to fit a sample of Mg II profiles in CBs. The Hα profiles computed with these Mg II CB models are consistent with typical EB profiles observed from ground based telescopes e.g. THEMIS. A 2D NLTE modelling of fibrils (canopy) demonstrates that the Mg II line centres can be significantly affected but not the peaks and the wings of Mg II lines. Conclusions: We conclude that the bright points observed in Mg II lines can be formed in an extended domain of altitudes in the photosphere and/or the chromosphere (400 to 750 km). Our results are consistent with the theory of heating by Joule dissipation in the atmosphere produced by magnetic field reconnection during flux emergence.

  16. The Value of the SYNTAX Score II in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

    PubMed

    Ryan, Nicola; Nombela-Franco, Luis; Jiménez-Quevedo, Pilar; Biagioni, Corina; Salinas, Pablo; Aldazábal, Andrés; Cerrato, Enrico; Gonzalo, Nieves; Del Trigo, María; Núñez-Gil, Iván; Fernández-Ortiz, Antonio; Macaya, Carlos; Escaned, Javier

    2017-11-27

    The predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SS) for clinical outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is very limited and could potentially be improved by the combination of anatomic and clinical variables, the SS-II. We aimed to evaluate the value of the SS-II in predicting outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI. A total of 402 patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis undergoing transfemoral TAVI were included. Preprocedural TAVI angiograms were reviewed and the SS-I and SS-II were calculated using the SS algorithms. Patients were stratified in 3 groups according to SS-II tertiles. The coprimary endpoints were all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite of all-cause death, cerebrovascular event, or myocardial infarction at 1 year. Increased SS-II was associated with higher 30-day mortality (P=.036) and major bleeding (P=.015). The 1-year risk of death and MACE was higher among patients in the 3rd SS-II tertile (HR, 2.60; P=.002 and HR, 2.66; P<.001) and was similar among patients in the 2nd tertile (HR, 1.27; P=.507 and HR, 1.05; P=.895) compared with patients in the 1st tertile. The highest SS-II tertile was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (P=.046) and MACE (P=.001). The SS-II seems more suited to predict clinical outcomes in patients undergoing TAVI than the SS-I. Increased SS-II was associated with poorer clinical outcomes at 1 and 4 years post-TAVI, independently of the presence of coronary artery disease. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Sustainable Arctic observing network for predicting weather extremes in mid-latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inoue, J.; Sato, K.; Yamazaki, A.

    2016-12-01

    Routine atmospheric observations within and over the Arctic Ocean are very expensive and difficult to conduct because of factors such as logistics and the harsh environment. Nevertheless, the great benefit of such observations is their contribution to an improvement of skills of weather predictions over the Arctic and mid-latitudes. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 proposed by the World Weather Research Programme - Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) would be the best opportunity to address the issues. The combination of observations and data assimilation is an effective way to understand the predictability of weather extremes in mid-latitudes. This talk presents the current activities related to PPP based on international special radiosonde observing network in the Arctic, and challenges toward YOPP. Comparing with summer and winter cases, the additional observations over the Arctic during winter were more effective for improving the predicting skills of weather extremes because the impact of the observations would be carried toward the mid-latitudes by the stronger jet stream and its frequent meanderings. During summer, on the other hand, the impact of extra observations was localized over the Arctic region but still important for precise weather forecasts over the Arctic Ocean, contributing to safe navigation along the Northern Sea Route. To consolidate the sustainable Arctic radiosonde observing network, increasing the frequency of observations at Arctic coastal stations, instead of commissioning special observations from ships and ice camps, would be a feasible way. In fact, several existing stations facing the Arctic Ocean have already increased the frequency of observations during winter and/or summer.

  18. Confrontation of the Magnetically Arrested Disc scenario with observations of FR II sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusinek, Katarzyna; Sikora, Marek

    2017-10-01

    The main aim of our work was to check whether powers of jets in FR II radio galaxies (RGs) and quasars (QSOs) can be reproduced by the Magnetically Arrested Disc (MAD) scenario. Assuming that established in the recent numerical simulations of the MAD scenario the (H/R)^2 dependence of the jet production efficiency is correct, we demonstrate that in order to reproduce the observed jet powers in FR II sources: (i) accretion discs must be geometrically much thicker than the standard ones; (ii) and/or that the jet production is strongly modulated.

  19. Genome-wide mutant profiling predicts the mechanism of a Lipid II binding antibiotic.

    PubMed

    Santiago, Marina; Lee, Wonsik; Fayad, Antoine Abou; Coe, Kathryn A; Rajagopal, Mithila; Do, Truc; Hennessen, Fabienne; Srisuknimit, Veerasak; Müller, Rolf; Meredith, Timothy C; Walker, Suzanne

    2018-06-01

    Identifying targets of antibacterial compounds remains a challenging step in the development of antibiotics. We have developed a two-pronged functional genomics approach to predict mechanism of action that uses mutant fitness data from antibiotic-treated transposon libraries containing both upregulation and inactivation mutants. We treated a Staphylococcus aureus transposon library containing 690,000 unique insertions with 32 antibiotics. Upregulation signatures identified from directional biases in insertions revealed known molecular targets and resistance mechanisms for the majority of these. Because single-gene upregulation does not always confer resistance, we used a complementary machine-learning approach to predict the mechanism from inactivation mutant fitness profiles. This approach suggested the cell wall precursor Lipid II as the molecular target of the lysocins, a mechanism we have confirmed. We conclude that docking to membrane-anchored Lipid II precedes the selective bacteriolysis that distinguishes these lytic natural products, showing the utility of our approach for nominating the antibiotic mechanism of action.

  20. Methylation of WNT target genes AXIN2 and DKK1 as robust biomarkers for recurrence prediction in stage II colon cancer

    PubMed Central

    Kandimalla, R; Linnekamp, J F; van Hooff, S; Castells, A; Llor, X; Andreu, M; Jover, R; Goel, A; Medema, J P

    2017-01-01

    Stage II colon cancer (CC) still remains a clinical challenge with patient stratification for adjuvant therapy (AT) largely relying on clinical parameters. Prognostic biomarkers are urgently needed for better stratification. Previously, we have shown that WNT target genes AXIN2, DKK1, APCDD1, ASCL2 and LGR5 are silenced by DNA methylation and could serve as prognostic markers in stage II CC patients using methylation-specific PCR. Here, we have extended our discovery cohort AMC90-AJCC-II (N=65) and methylation was analyzed by quantitative pyrosequencing. Subsequently, we validated the results in an independent EPICOLON1 CC cohort (N=79). Methylation of WNT target genes is negatively correlated to mRNA expression. A combination of AXIN2 and DKK1 methylation significantly predicted recurrences in univariate (area under the curve (AUC)=0.83, confidence interval (CI): 0.72–0.94, P<0.0001) analysis in stage II microsatellite stable (MSS) CC patients. This two marker combination showed an AUC of 0.80 (CI: 0.68–0.91, P<0.0001) in the EPICOLON1 validation cohort. Multivariate analysis in the Academic Medical Center (AMC) cohort revealed that both WNT target gene methylation and consensus molecular subtype 4 (CMS4) are significantly associated with poor recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio (HR)methylation: 3.84, 95% CI: 1.14–12.43; HRCMS4: 3.73, 95% CI: 1.22–11.48). CMS4 subtype tumors with WNT target methylation showed worse prognosis. Combining WNT target gene methylation and CMS4 subtype lead to an AUC of 0.89 (0.791–0.982, P<0.0001) for recurrence prediction. Notably, we observed that methylation of DKK1 is high in BRAF mutant and CIMP (CpG island methylator phenotype)-positive cancers, whereas AXIN2 methylation appears to be associated with CMS4. Methylation of AXIN2 and DKK1 were found to be robust markers for recurrence prediction in stage II MSS CC patients. Further validation of these findings in a randomized and prospective manner could pave a way to

  1. Social networks predict selective observation and information spread in ravens

    PubMed Central

    Rubenstein, Daniel I.; Bugnyar, Thomas; Hoppitt, William; Mikus, Nace; Schwab, Christine

    2016-01-01

    Animals are predicted to selectively observe and learn from the conspecifics with whom they share social connections. Yet, hardly anything is known about the role of different connections in observation and learning. To address the relationships between social connections, observation and learning, we investigated transmission of information in two raven (Corvus corax) groups. First, we quantified social connections in each group by constructing networks on affiliative interactions, aggressive interactions and proximity. We then seeded novel information by training one group member on a novel task and allowing others to observe. In each group, an observation network based on who observed whose task-solving behaviour was strongly correlated with networks based on affiliative interactions and proximity. Ravens with high social centrality (strength, eigenvector, information centrality) in the affiliative interaction network were also central in the observation network, possibly as a result of solving the task sooner. Network-based diffusion analysis revealed that the order that ravens first solved the task was best predicted by connections in the affiliative interaction network in a group of subadult ravens, and by social rank and kinship (which influenced affiliative interactions) in a group of juvenile ravens. Our results demonstrate that not all social connections are equally effective at predicting the patterns of selective observation and information transmission. PMID:27493780

  2. Improved prediction of MHC class I and class II epitopes using a novel Gibbs sampling approach.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Morten; Lundegaard, Claus; Worning, Peder; Hvid, Christina Sylvester; Lamberth, Kasper; Buus, Søren; Brunak, Søren; Lund, Ole

    2004-06-12

    Prediction of which peptides will bind a specific major histocompatibility complex (MHC) constitutes an important step in identifying potential T-cell epitopes suitable as vaccine candidates. MHC class II binding peptides have a broad length distribution complicating such predictions. Thus, identifying the correct alignment is a crucial part of identifying the core of an MHC class II binding motif. In this context, we wish to describe a novel Gibbs motif sampler method ideally suited for recognizing such weak sequence motifs. The method is based on the Gibbs sampling method, and it incorporates novel features optimized for the task of recognizing the binding motif of MHC classes I and II. The method locates the binding motif in a set of sequences and characterizes the motif in terms of a weight-matrix. Subsequently, the weight-matrix can be applied to identifying effectively potential MHC binding peptides and to guiding the process of rational vaccine design. We apply the motif sampler method to the complex problem of MHC class II binding. The input to the method is amino acid peptide sequences extracted from the public databases of SYFPEITHI and MHCPEP and known to bind to the MHC class II complex HLA-DR4(B1*0401). Prior identification of information-rich (anchor) positions in the binding motif is shown to improve the predictive performance of the Gibbs sampler. Similarly, a consensus solution obtained from an ensemble average over suboptimal solutions is shown to outperform the use of a single optimal solution. In a large-scale benchmark calculation, the performance is quantified using relative operating characteristics curve (ROC) plots and we make a detailed comparison of the performance with that of both the TEPITOPE method and a weight-matrix derived using the conventional alignment algorithm of ClustalW. The calculation demonstrates that the predictive performance of the Gibbs sampler is higher than that of ClustalW and in most cases also higher than that of

  3. The TETRA-II Experiment to Observe Terrestrial Gamma Flashes at Ground Level - Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherry, M. L.; Adams, C.; Al-Nussirat, S.; Bai, S.; Banadaki, Y.; Bitzer, P. M.; Hoffmann, J.; Khosravi, E.; Legault, M.; Orang, M.; Pleshinger, D. J.; Rodriguez, R.; Smith, D.; Trepanier, J. C.; Sunda-Meya, A.; Zimmer, N.

    2017-12-01

    An upgraded version of the TGF and Energetic Thunderstorm Rooftop Array (TETRA-II) consists of an array of BGO scintillators to detect bursts of gamma rays from thunderstorms at ground level in four separate locations: the campus of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, Louisiana; the campus of the University of Puerto Rico at Utuado, Puerto Rico; the Centro Nacional de Metrologia de Panama (CENAMEP) in Panama City, Panama; and the Severe Weather Institute and Radar & Lightning Laboratories in Huntsville, Alabama. The original TETRA-I array of NaI scintillators at Louisiana State University detected 37 millisecond-scale bursts of gamma rays at energies 50 keV-2 MeV associated with nearby (< 8 km) thunderstorms. TETRA-II began operation in May 2016 and now has approximately an order of magnitude greater sensitivity than TETRA-I. The ability to observe ground-level Terrestrial Gamma Flashes from close to the source allows a unique analysis of the storm cells producing these events. A brief description of the TETRA-I observations, a description of TETRA-II, and preliminary results of the first events observed by TETRA-II will be presented including frequency and time history of events, spectral information, and correlation with local radar and radio data.

  4. Chromospheric Activity in Population II Giants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harper, Graham M.

    2004-01-01

    One of the mysteries of Population II giants is that they still show chromospheric emission despite their great age. The global dynamo which was active during their main-sequence lifetimes is expected to become extremely weak through magnetic rotational braking. The nature of the observed emission is not understood; although acoustic shock waves might provide the heating, acoustic waves are not predicted to drive the observed mass loss - which in turn requires the dissipation of magneto-hydrodynamic waves. This program was designed to search for the faint stellar H Ly beta emission wings and the fluorescent Fe II and H2 emission from one of the brightest, metal poor, Population II stars. These FUSE diagnostics, when combined with existing UV and optical spectra, help determine the major radiative cooling channels for the chromosphere. This observation was to complement that previously planned for the mildly metal deficient giant alpha Boo (K2 III). However, alpha Boo has yet to be observed with FUSE.

  5. Using the Hendrich II Inpatient Fall Risk Screen to Predict Outpatient Falls After Emergency Department Visits.

    PubMed

    Patterson, Brian W; Repplinger, Michael D; Pulia, Michael S; Batt, Robert J; Svenson, James E; Trinh, Alex; Mendonça, Eneida A; Smith, Maureen A; Hamedani, Azita G; Shah, Manish N

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the utility of routinely collected Hendrich II fall scores in predicting returns to the emergency department (ED) for falls within 6 months. Retrospective electronic record review. Academic medical center ED. Individuals aged 65 and older seen in the ED from January 1, 2013, through September 30, 2015. We evaluated the utility of routinely collected Hendrich II fall risk scores in predicting ED visits for a fall within 6 months of an all-cause index ED visit. For in-network patient visits resulting in discharge with a completed Hendrich II score (N = 4,366), the return rate for a fall within 6 months was 8.3%. When applying the score alone to predict revisit for falls among the study population the resultant receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.64. In a univariate model, the odds of returning to the ED for a fall in 6 months were 1.23 times as high for every 1-point increase in Hendrich II score (odds ratio (OR)=1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.19-1.28). When included in a model with other potential confounders or predictors of falls, the Hendrich II score is a significant predictor of a return ED visit for fall (adjusted OR=1.15, 95% CI=1.10-1.20, AUC=0.75). Routinely collected Hendrich II scores were correlated with outpatient falls, but it is likely that they would have little utility as a stand-alone fall risk screen. When combined with easily extractable covariates, the screen performs much better. These results highlight the potential for secondary use of electronic health record data for risk stratification of individuals in the ED. Using data already routinely collected, individuals at high risk of falls after discharge could be identified for referral without requiring additional screening resources. © 2018, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2018, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Prediction of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence in the Japanese population: the JPHC study cohort II.

    PubMed

    Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Shimazu, Taichi; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2016-01-15

    Gastric cancer is a particularly important issue in Japan, where incidence rates are among the highest observed. In this work, we provide a risk prediction model allowing the estimation of the 10-year cumulative probability of gastric cancer occurrence. The study population consisted of 19,028 individuals from the Japanese Public Health Center cohort II who were followed-up from 1993 to 2009. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact on the probability of gastric cancer of clinical and lifestyle-related risk factors in combination with serum anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody titres and pepsinogen I and pepsinogen II levels. Based on the resulting model, cumulative probability estimates were calculated and a simple risk scoring system was developed. A total of 412 cases of gastric cancer occurred during 270,854 person-years of follow-up. The final model included (besides the biological markers) age, gender, smoking status, family history of gastric cancer and consumption of highly salted food. The developed prediction model showed good predictive performance in terms of discrimination (optimism-corrected c-index: 0.768) and calibration (Nam and d'Agostino's χ(2) test: 14.78; p values = 0.06). Estimates of the 10-year probability of gastric cancer occurrence ranged from 0.04% (0.02, 0.1) to 14.87% (8.96, 24.14) for men and from 0.03% (0.02, 0.07) to 4.91% (2.71, 8.81) for women. In conclusion, we developed a risk prediction model for gastric cancer that combines clinical and biological markers. It might prompt individuals to modify their lifestyle habits, attend regular check-up visits or participate in screening programmes. © 2015 UICC.

  7. Foveated model observers to predict human performance in 3D images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lago, Miguel A.; Abbey, Craig K.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2017-03-01

    We evaluate 3D search requires model observers that take into account the peripheral human visual processing (foveated models) to predict human observer performance. We show that two different 3D tasks, free search and location-known detection, influence the relative human visual detectability of two signals of different sizes in synthetic backgrounds mimicking the noise found in 3D digital breast tomosynthesis. One of the signals resembled a microcalcification (a small and bright sphere), while the other one was designed to look like a mass (a larger Gaussian blob). We evaluated current standard models observers (Hotelling; Channelized Hotelling; non-prewhitening matched filter with eye filter, NPWE; and non-prewhitening matched filter model, NPW) and showed that they incorrectly predict the relative detectability of the two signals in 3D search. We propose a new model observer (3D Foveated Channelized Hotelling Observer) that incorporates the properties of the visual system over a large visual field (fovea and periphery). We show that the foveated model observer can accurately predict the rank order of detectability of the signals in 3D images for each task. Together, these results motivate the use of a new generation of foveated model observers for predicting image quality for search tasks in 3D imaging modalities such as digital breast tomosynthesis or computed tomography.

  8. Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tiedeman, Claire; Green, Christopher T.

    2013-01-01

    Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (rdss). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of rdss. Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

  9. ScII: an abundant chromosome scaffold protein is a member of a family of putative ATPases with an unusual predicted tertiary structure

    PubMed Central

    1994-01-01

    Here, we describe the cloning and characterization of ScII, the second most abundant protein after topoisomerase II, of the chromosome scaffold fraction to be identified. ScII is structurally related to a protein, Smc1p, previously found to be required for accurate chromosome segregation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. ScII and the other members of the emerging family of SMC1-like proteins are likely to be novel ATPases, with NTP-binding A and B sites separated by two lengthy regions predicted to form an alpha-helical coiled-coil. Analysis of the ScII B site predicted that ScII might use ATP by a mechanism similar to the bacterial recN DNA repair and recombination enzyme. ScII is a mitosis-specific scaffold protein that colocalizes with topoisomerase II in mitotic chromosomes. However, ScII appears not to be associated with the interphase nuclear matrix. ScII might thus play a role in mitotic processes such as chromosome condensation or sister chromatid disjunction, both of which have been previously shown to involve topoisomerase II. PMID:7929577

  10. Morphological Properties of Slender Ca II H Fibrils Observed by Sunrise II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gafeira, R.; Lagg, A.; Solanki, S. K.; Jafarzadeh, S.; van Noort, M.; Barthol, P.; Blanco Rodríguez, J.; del Toro Iniesta, J. C.; Gandorfer, A.; Gizon, L.; Hirzberger, J.; Knölker, M.; Orozco Suárez, D.; Riethmüller, T. L.; Schmidt, W.

    2017-03-01

    We use seeing-free high spatial resolution Ca II H data obtained by the Sunrise observatory to determine properties of slender fibrils in the lower solar chromosphere. In this work we use intensity images taken with the SuFI instrument in the Ca II H line during the second scientific flight of the Sunrise observatory to identify and track elongated bright structures. After identification, we analyze theses structures to extract their morphological properties. We identify 598 slender Ca II H fibrils (SCFs) with an average width of around 180 km, length between 500 and 4000 km, average lifetime of ≈400 s, and average curvature of 0.002 arcsec-1. The maximum lifetime of the SCFs within our time series of 57 minutes is ≈2000 s. We discuss similarities and differences of the SCFs with other small-scale, chromospheric structures such as spicules of type I and II, or Ca II K fibrils.

  11. A Prediction for the Outcome of Press-Enterprise Co. v. Superior Court (II).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Thomas A.

    To determine whether U.S. Supreme Court judges have a systematic attitude toward court cases dealing with the law of newsgathering and fair trial-free press, and whether that attitude can help predict the outcome of the pending case Press-Enterprise Co. v. Superior Court (II), this paper applies an attitudinal theory from the field of social…

  12. Design, synthesis, pharmacological evaluation and in silico ADMET prediction of novel substituted benzimidazole derivatives as angiotensin II-AT1 receptor antagonists based on predictive 3D QSAR models.

    PubMed

    Vyas, V K; Gupta, N; Ghate, M; Patel, S

    2014-01-01

    In this study we designed novel substituted benzimidazole derivatives and predicted their absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADMET) properties, based on a predictive 3D QSAR study on 132 substituted benzimidazoles as AngII-AT1 receptor antagonists. The two best predicted compounds were synthesized and evaluated for AngII-AT1 receptor antagonism. Three different alignment tools for comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA) were used. The best 3D QSAR models were obtained using the rigid body (Distill) alignment method. CoMFA and CoMSIA models were found to be statistically significant with leave-one-out correlation coefficients (q(2)) of 0.630 and 0.623, respectively, cross-validated coefficients (r(2)cv) of 0.651 and 0.630, respectively, and conventional coefficients of determination (r(2)) of 0.848 and 0.843, respectively. 3D QSAR models were validated using a test set of 24 compounds, giving satisfactory predicted results (r(2)pred) of 0.727 and 0.689 for the CoMFA and CoMSIA models, respectively. We have identified some key features in substituted benzimidazole derivatives, such as lipophilicity and H-bonding at the 2- and 5-positions of the benzimidazole nucleus, respectively, for AT1 receptor antagonistic activity. We designed 20 novel substituted benzimidazole derivatives and predicted their activity. In silico ADMET properties were also predicted for these designed molecules. Finally, the compounds with best predicted activity were synthesized and evaluated for in vitro angiotensin II-AT1 receptor antagonism.

  13. Observed and Predicted Pier Scour in Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lombard, Pamela J.

    2002-01-01

    Pier-scour and related data were collected and analyzed for nine high river flows at eight bridges across Maine from 1997 through 2001. Six bridges had multiple piers. Fifteen of 23 piers where data were measured during a high flow had observed maximum scour depths ranging from 0.5 feet (ft) to 12.0 ft. No pier scour was observed at the remaining eight piers. The maximum predicted pier-scour depths associated with the 23 piers were computed using the equations in the Federal Highway Administration's Hydraulic Engineering Circular number 18 (HEC-18), with data collected for this study. The predicted HEC-18 maximum pier-scour depths were compared to the observed maximum pier-scour depths. The HEC-18 pier-scour equations are intended to be envelope equations, ideally never underpredicting scour depths and not appreciably overpredicting them. The HEC-18 pier-scour equations performed well for rivers in Maine. Twenty-two out of 23 pier-scour depths were overpredicted by 0.7 ft to 18.3 ft. One pier-scour depth was underpredicted by 4.5 ft. For one pier at each of two bridges, large amounts of debris lodged on the piers after high-flow measurements were made at those sites. The scour associated with the debris increased the maximum pier-scour depths by about 5 ft in each case.

  14. FORUM - FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    EPA Science Inventory

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo resp...

  15. An automated benchmarking platform for MHC class II binding prediction methods.

    PubMed

    Andreatta, Massimo; Trolle, Thomas; Yan, Zhen; Greenbaum, Jason A; Peters, Bjoern; Nielsen, Morten

    2018-05-01

    Computational methods for the prediction of peptide-MHC binding have become an integral and essential component for candidate selection in experimental T cell epitope discovery studies. The sheer amount of published prediction methods-and often discordant reports on their performance-poses a considerable quandary to the experimentalist who needs to choose the best tool for their research. With the goal to provide an unbiased, transparent evaluation of the state-of-the-art in the field, we created an automated platform to benchmark peptide-MHC class II binding prediction tools. The platform evaluates the absolute and relative predictive performance of all participating tools on data newly entered into the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB) before they are made public, thereby providing a frequent, unbiased assessment of available prediction tools. The benchmark runs on a weekly basis, is fully automated, and displays up-to-date results on a publicly accessible website. The initial benchmark described here included six commonly used prediction servers, but other tools are encouraged to join with a simple sign-up procedure. Performance evaluation on 59 data sets composed of over 10 000 binding affinity measurements suggested that NetMHCIIpan is currently the most accurate tool, followed by NN-align and the IEDB consensus method. Weekly reports on the participating methods can be found online at: http://tools.iedb.org/auto_bench/mhcii/weekly/. mniel@bioinformatics.dtu.dk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  16. Model-data assimilation of multiple phenological observations to constrain and predict leaf area index.

    PubMed

    Viskari, Toni; Hardiman, Brady; Desai, Ankur R; Dietze, Michael C

    2015-03-01

    Our limited ability to accurately simulate leaf phenology is a leading source of uncertainty in models of ecosystem carbon cycling. We evaluate if continuously updating canopy state variables with observations is beneficial for predicting phenological events. We employed ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) to update predictions of leaf area index (LAI) and leaf extension using tower-based photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) data for 2002-2005 at Willow Creek, Wisconsin, USA, a mature, even-aged, northern hardwood, deciduous forest. The ecosystem demography model version 2 (ED2) was used as the prediction model, forced by offline climate data. EAKF successfully incorporated information from both the observations and model predictions weighted by their respective uncertainties. The resulting. estimate reproduced the observed leaf phenological cycle in the spring and the fall better than a parametric model prediction. These results indicate that during spring the observations contribute most in determining the correct bud-burst date, after which the model performs well, but accurately modeling fall leaf senesce requires continuous model updating from observations. While the predicted net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 precedes tower observations and unassimilated model predictions in the spring, overall the prediction follows observed NEE better than the model alone. Our results show state data assimilation successfully simulates the evolution of plant leaf phenology and improves model predictions of forest NEE.

  17. Macrocyclic receptor showing extremely high Sr(II)/Ca(II) and Pb(II)/Ca(II) selectivities with potential application in chelation treatment of metal intoxication.

    PubMed

    Ferreirós-Martínez, Raquel; Esteban-Gómez, David; Tóth, Éva; de Blas, Andrés; Platas-Iglesias, Carlos; Rodríguez-Blas, Teresa

    2011-04-18

    Herein we report a detailed investigation of the complexation properties of the macrocyclic decadentate receptor N,N'-Bis[(6-carboxy-2-pyridil)methyl]-4,13-diaza-18-crown-6 (H(2)bp18c6) toward different divalent metal ions [Zn(II), Cd(II), Pb(II), Sr(II), and Ca(II)] in aqueous solution. We have found that this ligand is especially suited for the complexation of large metal ions such as Sr(II) and Pb(II), which results in very high Pb(II)/Ca(II) and Pb(II)/Zn(II) selectivities (in fact, higher than those found for ligands widely used for the treatment of lead poisoning such as ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (edta)), as well as in the highest Sr(II)/Ca(II) selectivity reported so far. These results have been rationalized on the basis of the structure of the complexes. X-ray crystal diffraction, (1)H and (13)C NMR spectroscopy, as well as theoretical calculations at the density functional theory (B3LYP) level have been performed. Our results indicate that for large metal ions such as Pb(II) and Sr(II) the most stable conformation is Δ(δλδ)(δλδ), while for Ca(II) our calculations predict the Δ(λδλ)(λδλ) form being the most stable one. The selectivity that bp18c6(2-) shows for Sr(II) over Ca(II) can be attributed to a better fit between the large Sr(II) ions and the relatively large crown fragment of the ligand. The X-ray crystal structure of the Pb(II) complex shows that the Δ(δλδ)(δλδ) conformation observed in solution is also maintained in the solid state. The Pb(II) ion is endocyclically coordinated, being directly bound to the 10 donor atoms of the ligand. The bond distances to the donor atoms of the pendant arms (2.55-2.60 Å) are substantially shorter than those between the metal ion and the donor atoms of the crown moiety (2.92-3.04 Å). This is a typical situation observed for the so-called hemidirected compounds, in which the Pb(II) lone pair is stereochemically active. The X-ray structures of the Zn(II) and Cd(II) complexes show that

  18. Structure-based prediction and identification of 4-epimerization activity of phosphate sugars in class II aldolases.

    PubMed

    Lee, Seon-Hwa; Hong, Seung-Hye; An, Jung-Ung; Kim, Kyoung-Rok; Kim, Dong-Eun; Kang, Lin-Woo; Oh, Deok-Kun

    2017-05-16

    Sugar 4-epimerization reactions are important for the production of rare sugars and their derivatives, which have various potential industrial applications. For example, the production of tagatose, a functional sweetener, from fructose by sugar 4-epimerization is currently constrained because a fructose 4-epimerase does not exist in nature. We found that class II D-fructose-1,6-bisphosphate aldolase (FbaA) catalyzed the 4-epimerization of D-fructose-6-phosphate (F6P) to D-tagatose-6-phosphate (T6P) based on the prediction via structural comparisons with epimerase and molecular docking and the identification of the condensed products of C3 sugars. In vivo, the 4-epimerization activity of FbaA is normally repressed. This can be explained by our results showing the catalytic efficiency of D-fructose-6-phosphate kinase for F6P phosphorylation was significantly higher than that of FbaA for F6P epimerization. Here, we identified the epimerization reactions and the responsible catalytic residues through observation of the reactions of FbaA and L-rhamnulose-1-phosphate aldolases (RhaD) variants with substituted catalytic residues using different substrates. Moreover, we obtained detailed potential epimerization reaction mechanism of FbaA and a general epimerization mechanism of the class II aldolases L-fuculose-1-phosphate aldolase, RhaD, and FbaA. Thus, class II aldolases can be used as 4-epimerases for the stereo-selective synthesis of valuable carbohydrates.

  19. Galaxy Formation At Extreme Redshifts: Semi-Analytic Model Predictions And Challenges For Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yung, L. Y. Aaron; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2017-06-01

    The well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic galaxy formation framework has been shown to be quite successful at explaining observations in the local Universe, as well as making predictions for low-redshift observations. Recently, metallicity-based gas partitioning and H2-based star formation recipes have been implemented in our model, replacing the legacy cold-gas based recipe. We then use our revised model to explore the high-redshift Universe and make predictions up to z = 15. Although our model is only calibrated to observations from the local universe, our predictions seem to match incredibly well with mid- to high-redshift observational constraints available-to-date, including rest-frame UV luminosity functions and the reionization history as constrained by CMB and IGM observations. We provide predictions for individual and statistical galaxy properties at a wide range of redshifts (z = 4 - 15), including objects that are too far or too faint to be detected with current facilities. And using our model predictions, we also provide forecasted luminosity functions and other observables for upcoming studies with JWST.

  20. Tracers of Chromospheric Structure. I. Observations of Ca II K and Hα in M Dwarfs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walkowicz, Lucianne M.; Hawley, Suzanne L.

    2009-02-01

    We report on our observing program4This paper is based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The Observatory was made possible by the generous financial support of the W. M. Keck Foundation. to capture simultaneous spectra of Ca II and Balmer lines in a sample of nearby M3 dwarfs. Our goal is to investigate the chromospheric temperature structure required to produce these lines at the observed levels. We find a strong positive correlation between instantaneous measurements of Ca II K and the Balmer lines in active stars, although these lines may not be positively correlated in time-resolved measurements. The relationship between Hα and Ca II K remains ambiguous for weak and intermediate activity stars, with Hα absorption corresponding to a range of Ca II K emission. A similar relationship is also observed between Ca II K and the higher-order Balmer lines. As our sample consists of a single spectral type, correlations between these important chromospheric tracers cannot be ascribed to continuum effects, as suggested by other authors. These data confirm prior nonsimultaneous observations of the Hα line behavior with increasing activity, showing an initial increase in the Hα absorption with increasing Ca II K emission, prior to Hα filling in and eventually becoming a pure emission line in the most active stars. We also compare our optical measurements with archival UV and X-ray measurements, finding a positive correlation between the chromospheric and coronal emission for both high and intermediate activity stars. We compare our results with previous determinations of the active fraction of low-mass stars

  1. Type II Supernova Spectral Diversity. I. Observations, Sample Characterization, and Spectral Line Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, Claudia P.; Anderson, Joseph P.; Hamuy, Mario; Morrell, Nidia; González-Gaitan, Santiago; Stritzinger, Maximilian D.; Phillips, Mark M.; Galbany, Lluis; Folatelli, Gastón; Dessart, Luc; Contreras, Carlos; Della Valle, Massimo; Freedman, Wendy L.; Hsiao, Eric Y.; Krisciunas, Kevin; Madore, Barry F.; Maza, José; Suntzeff, Nicholas B.; Prieto, Jose Luis; González, Luis; Cappellaro, Enrico; Navarrete, Mauricio; Pizzella, Alessandro; Ruiz, Maria T.; Smith, R. Chris; Turatto, Massimo

    2017-11-01

    We present 888 visual-wavelength spectra of 122 nearby type II supernovae (SNe II) obtained between 1986 and 2009, and ranging between 3 and 363 days post-explosion. In this first paper, we outline our observations and data reduction techniques, together with a characterization based on the spectral diversity of SNe II. A statistical analysis of the spectral matching technique is discussed as an alternative to nondetection constraints for estimating SN explosion epochs. The time evolution of spectral lines is presented and analyzed in terms of how this differs for SNe of different photometric, spectral, and environmental properties: velocities, pseudo-equivalent widths, decline rates, magnitudes, time durations, and environment metallicity. Our sample displays a large range in ejecta expansion velocities, from ˜9600 to ˜1500 km s-1 at 50 days post-explosion with a median {{{H}}}α value of 7300 km s-1. This is most likely explained through differing explosion energies. Significant diversity is also observed in the absolute strength of spectral lines, characterized through their pseudo-equivalent widths. This implies significant diversity in both temperature evolution (linked to progenitor radius) and progenitor metallicity between different SNe II. Around 60% of our sample shows an extra absorption component on the blue side of the {{{H}}}α P-Cygni profile (“Cachito” feature) between 7 and 120 days since explosion. Studying the nature of Cachito, we conclude that these features at early times (before ˜35 days) are associated with Si II λ 6355, while past the middle of the plateau phase they are related to high velocity (HV) features of hydrogen lines. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 m Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile; and the Gemini Observatory, Cerro Pachon, Chile (Gemini Program GS-2008B-Q-56). Based on observations collected at the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere

  2. Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerr, Graham S.; Fletcher, Lyndsay; Russell, Alexander J. B.; Allred, Joel C.

    2016-01-01

    We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

  3. Assessing youth who sexually offended: the predictive validity of the ERASOR, J-SOAP-II, and YLS/CMI in a non-Western context.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Ng, Kynaston; Fong, June; Teoh, Jennifer

    2012-04-01

    Recent research suggested that the predictive validity of adult sexual offender risk assessment measures can be affected when used cross-culturally, but there is no published study on the predictive validity of risk assessment measures for youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context. This study compared the predictive validity of three youth risk assessment measures (i.e., the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR], the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II], and the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory [YLS/CMI]) for sexual and nonviolent recidivism in a sample of 104 male youth who sexually offended within a Singaporean context (M (follow-up) = 1,637 days; SD (follow-up) = 491). Results showed that the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score significantly predicted sexual recidivism but only the former significantly predicted time to sexual reoffense. All of the measures (i.e., the ERASOR overall clinical rating and total score, the J-SOAP-II total score, as well as the YLS/CMI) significantly predicted nonsexual recidivism and time to nonsexual reoffense for this sample of youth who sexually offended. Overall, the results suggest that the ERASOR appears to be suited for assessing youth who sexually offended in a non-Western context, but the J-SOAP-II and the YLS/CMI have limited utility for such a purpose.

  4. THE FORMATION OF IRIS DIAGNOSTICS. VIII. IRIS OBSERVATIONS IN THE C ii 133.5 nm MULTIPLET

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rathore, Bhavna; Pereira, Tiago M. D.; Carlsson, Mats

    The C ii 133.5 nm multiplet has been observed by NASA’s Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in unprecedented spatial resolution. The aims of this work are to characterize these new observations of the C ii lines, place them in context with previous work, and to identify any additional value the C ii lines bring when compared with other spectral lines. We make use of wide, long exposure IRIS rasters covering the quiet Sun and an active region. Line properties such as velocity shift and width are extracted from individual spectra and analyzed. The lines have a variety of shapes (mostlymore » single-peak or double-peak), are strongest in active regions and weaker in the quiet Sun. The ratio between the 133.4 and 133.5 nm components is always less than 1.8, indicating that their radiation is optically thick in all locations. Maps of the C ii line widths are a powerful new diagnostic of chromospheric structures, and their line shifts are a robust velocity diagnostic. Compared with earlier quiet Sun observations, we find similar absolute intensities and mean line widths, but smaller redshifts; this difference can perhaps be attributed to differences in spectral resolution and spatial coverage. The C ii intensity maps are somewhat similar to those of transition region lines, but also share some features with chromospheric maps such as those from the Mg ii k line, indicating that they are formed between the upper chromosphere and transition region. C ii intensity, width, and velocity maps can therefore be used to gather additional information about the upper chromosphere.« less

  5. Deep Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam Observations of Milky Way Satellites Columba I and Triangulum II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlin, Jeffrey L.; Sand, David J.; Muñoz, Ricardo R.; Spekkens, Kristine; Willman, Beth; Crnojević, Denija; Forbes, Duncan A.; Hargis, Jonathan; Kirby, Evan; Peter, Annika H. G.; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Strader, Jay

    2017-12-01

    We present deep, wide-field Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam photometry of two recently discovered satellites of the Milky Way (MW): Columba I (Col I) and Triangulum II (Tri II). The color-magnitude diagrams of both objects point to exclusively old and metal-poor stellar populations. We re-derive structural parameters and luminosities of these satellites, and find {M}{{V},{Col}{{I}}}=-4.2+/- 0.2 for Col I and {M}{{V},{Tri}{II}}=-1.2+/- 0.4 for Tri II, with corresponding half-light radii of {r}{{h},{Col}{{I}}}=117+/- 17 pc and {r}{{h},{Tri}{II}}=21+/- 4 pc. The properties of both systems are consistent with observed scaling relations for MW dwarf galaxies. Based on archival data, we derive upper limits on the neutral gas content of these dwarfs, and find that they lack H I, as do the majority of observed satellites within the MW virial radius. Neither satellite shows evidence of tidal stripping in the form of extensions or distortions in matched-filter stellar density maps or surface-density profiles. However, the smaller Tri II system is relatively metal-rich for its luminosity (compared to other MW satellites), possibly because it has been tidally stripped. Through a suite of orbit simulations, we show that Tri II is approaching pericenter of its eccentric orbit, a stage at which tidal debris is unlikely to be seen. In addition, we find that Tri II may be on its first infall into the MW, which helps explain its unique properties among MW dwarfs. Further evidence that Tri II is likely an ultra-faint dwarf comes from its stellar mass function, which is similar to those of other MW dwarfs. Based in part on data collected at the Subaru Telescope, which is operated by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan.

  6. In Silico Prediction of Drug Dissolution and Absorption with variation in Intestinal pH for BCS Class II Weak Acid Drugs: Ibuprofen and Ketoprofen§

    PubMed Central

    Tsume, Yasuhiro; Langguth, Peter; Garcia-Arieta, Alfredo; Amidon, Gordon L.

    2012-01-01

    The FDA Biopharmaceutical Classification System guidance allows waivers for in vivo bioavailability and bioequivalence studies for immediate-release solid oral dosage forms only for BCS class I. Extensions of the in vivo biowaiver for a number of drugs in BCS Class III and BCS class II have been proposed, particularly, BCS class II weak acids. However, a discrepancy between the in vivo- BE results and in vitro- dissolution results for a BCS class II acids was recently observed. The objectives of this study were to determine the oral absorption of BCS class II weak acids via simulation software and to determine if the in vitro dissolution test with various dissolution media could be sufficient for in vitro bioequivalence studies of ibuprofen and ketoprofen as models of carboxylic acid drugs. The oral absorption of these BCS class II acids from the gastrointestinal tract was predicted by GastroPlus™. Ibuprofen did not satisfy the bioequivalence criteria at lower settings of intestinal pH=6.0. Further the experimental dissolution of ibuprofen tablets in the low concentration phosphate buffer at pH 6.0 (the average buffer capacity 2.2 mmol L-1/pH) was dramatically reduced compared to the dissolution in SIF (the average buffer capacity 12.6 mmol L -1/pH). Thus these predictions for oral absorption of BCS class II acids indicate that the absorption patterns largely depend on the intestinal pH and buffer strength and must be carefully considered for a bioequivalence test. Simulation software may be very useful tool to aid the selection of dissolution media that may be useful in setting an in vitro bioequivalence dissolution standard. PMID:22815122

  7. External Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) for Risk Prioritization in an Iranian Population

    PubMed Central

    Atashi, Alireza; Amini, Shahram; Tashnizi, Mohammad Abbasi; Moeinipour, Ali Asghar; Aazami, Mathias Hossain; Tohidnezhad, Fariba; Ghasemi, Erfan; Eslami, Saeid

    2018-01-01

    Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran. PMID:29617500

  8. In silico prediction of drug dissolution and absorption with variation in intestinal pH for BCS class II weak acid drugs: ibuprofen and ketoprofen.

    PubMed

    Tsume, Yasuhiro; Langguth, Peter; Garcia-Arieta, Alfredo; Amidon, Gordon L

    2012-10-01

    The FDA Biopharmaceutical Classification System guidance allows waivers for in vivo bioavailability and bioequivalence studies for immediate-release solid oral dosage forms only for BCS class I. Extensions of the in vivo biowaiver for a number of drugs in BCS class III and BCS class II have been proposed, in particular, BCS class II weak acids. However, a discrepancy between the in vivo BE results and in vitro dissolution results for BCS class II acids was recently observed. The objectives of this study were to determine the oral absorption of BCS class II weak acids via simulation software and to determine if the in vitro dissolution test with various dissolution media could be sufficient for in vitro bioequivalence studies of ibuprofen and ketoprofen as models of carboxylic acid drugs. The oral absorption of these BCS class II acids from the gastrointestinal tract was predicted by GastroPlus™. Ibuprofen did not satisfy the bioequivalence criteria at lower settings of intestinal pH of 6.0. Further the experimental dissolution of ibuprofen tablets in a low concentration phosphate buffer at pH 6.0 (the average buffer capacity 2.2 mmol l (-1) /pH) was dramatically reduced compared with the dissolution in SIF (the average buffer capacity 12.6 mmol l (-1) /pH). Thus these predictions for the oral absorption of BCS class II acids indicate that the absorption patterns depend largely on the intestinal pH and buffer strength and must be considered carefully for a bioequivalence test. Simulation software may be a very useful tool to aid the selection of dissolution media that may be useful in setting an in vitro bioequivalence dissolution standard. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Loss-of-flow-without-scram tests in Experimental Breeder Reactor-II and comparison with pretest predictions

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chang, L.K.; Mohr, D.; Planchon, H.P.

    This article discusses a series of successful loss-of-flow-without-scram tests conducted in Experimental Breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II), a metal-fueled, sodium-cooled fast reactor. These May 1985 tests demonstrated the capability of the EBR to reduce reactor power passively during a loss of flow and to maintain reactor temperatures within bounds without any reliance on an active safety system. The tests were run from reduced power to ensure that temperatures could be maintained well below the fuel-clad eutectic temperature. Good agreement was found between selected test data and pretest predictions made with the EBR-II system analysis code NATDEMO and the hot channel analysis codemore » HOTCHAN. The article also discusses safety assessments of the tests as well as modifications required on the EBR-II reactor safety system for conducting required on the EBR-II reactor safety system for the conducting the tests.« less

  10. Comparison of Observed and Predicted Abutment Scour at Selected Bridges in Maine

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lombard, Pamela J.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

    2008-01-01

    Maximum abutment-scour depths predicted with five different methods were compared to maximum abutment-scour depths observed at 100 abutments at 50 bridge sites in Maine with a median bridge age of 66 years. Prediction methods included the Froehlich/Hire method, the Sturm method, and the Maryland method published in Federal Highway Administration Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18 (HEC-18); the Melville method; and envelope curves. No correlation was found between scour calculated using any of the prediction methods and observed scour. Abutment scour observed in the field ranged from 0 to 6.8 feet, with an average observed scour of less than 1.0 foot. Fifteen of the 50 bridge sites had no observable scour. Equations frequently overpredicted scour by an order of magnitude and in some cases by two orders of magnitude. The equations also underpredicted scour 4 to 14 percent of the time.

  11. Operational prediction of air quality for the United States: applications of satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stajner, Ivanka; Lee, Pius; Tong, Daniel; Pan, Li; McQueen, Jeff; Huang, Jianping; Huang, Ho-Chun; Draxler, Roland; Kondragunta, Shobha; Upadhayay, Sikchya

    2015-04-01

    Operational predictions of ozone and wildfire smoke over United States (U.S.) and predictions of airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are provided by NOAA at http://airquality.weather.gov/. North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather predictions with inventory based emissions estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and chemical processes within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are combined together to produce ozone predictions. Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model is used to predict wildfire smoke and dust storm predictions. Routine verification of ozone predictions relies on AIRNow compilation of observations from surface monitors. Retrievals of smoke column integrals from GOES satellites and dust column integrals from MODIS satellite instruments are used for verification of smoke and dust predictions. Recent updates of NOAA's operational air quality predictions have focused on mobile emissions using the projections of mobile sources for 2012. Since emission inventories are complex and take years to assemble and evaluate causing a lag of information, we recently began combing inventory information with projections of mobile sources. In order to evaluate this emission update, these changes in projected NOx emissions from 2005-2012 were compared with observed changes in Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 observations and NOx measured by surface monitors over large U.S. cities over the same period. Comparisons indicate that projected decreases in NOx emissions from 2005 to 2012 are similar, but not as strong as the decreases in the observed NOx concentrations and in OMI NO2 retrievals. Nevertheless, the use of projected mobile NOx emissions in the predictions reduced biases in predicted NOx concentrations, with the largest improvement in the urban areas. Ozone biases are reduced as well, with the largest improvement seen in rural areas. Recent testing of PM2.5 predictions is relying on

  12. Transition Region Explosive Events in He II 304Å: Observation and Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rust, Thomas; Kankelborg, Charles C.

    2016-05-01

    We present examples of transition region explosive events observed in the He II 304Å spectral line with the Multi Order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES). With small (<5000 km) spatial scale and large non-thermal (100-150 km/s) velocities these events satisfy the observational signatures of transition region explosive events. Derived line profiles show distinct blue and red velocity components with very little broadening of either component. We observe little to no emission from low velocity plasma, making the plasmoid instability reconnection model unlikely as the plasma acceleration mechanism for these events. Rather, the single speed, bi-directional jet characteristics suggested by these data are consistent with acceleration via Petschek reconnection.Observations were made during the first sounding rocket flight of MOSES in 2006. MOSES forms images in 3 orders of a concave diffraction grating. Multilayer coatings largely restrict the passband to the He II 303.8Å and Si XI 303.3Å spectral lines. The angular field of view is about 8.5'x17', or about 20% of the solar disk. These images constitute projections of the volume I(x,y,λ), the intensity as a function of sky plane position and wavelength. Spectral line profiles are recovered via tomographic inversion of these projections. Inversion is carried out using a multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique.

  13. Melanoma-specific MHC-II expression represents a tumour-autonomous phenotype and predicts response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Douglas B.; Estrada, Monica V.; Salgado, Roberto; Sanchez, Violeta; Doxie, Deon B.; Opalenik, Susan R.; Vilgelm, Anna E.; Feld, Emily; Johnson, Adam S.; Greenplate, Allison R.; Sanders, Melinda E.; Lovly, Christine M.; Frederick, Dennie T.; Kelley, Mark C.; Richmond, Ann; Irish, Jonathan M.; Shyr, Yu; Sullivan, Ryan J.; Puzanov, Igor; Sosman, Jeffrey A.; Balko, Justin M.

    2016-01-01

    Anti-PD-1 therapy yields objective clinical responses in 30–40% of advanced melanoma patients. Since most patients do not respond, predictive biomarkers to guide treatment selection are needed. We hypothesize that MHC-I/II expression is required for tumour antigen presentation and may predict anti-PD-1 therapy response. In this study, across 60 melanoma cell lines, we find bimodal expression patterns of MHC-II, while MHC-I expression was ubiquitous. A unique subset of melanomas are capable of expressing MHC-II under basal or IFNγ-stimulated conditions. Using pathway analysis, we show that MHC-II(+) cell lines demonstrate signatures of ‘PD-1 signalling', ‘allograft rejection' and ‘T-cell receptor signalling', among others. In two independent cohorts of anti-PD-1-treated melanoma patients, MHC-II positivity on tumour cells is associated with therapeutic response, progression-free and overall survival, as well as CD4+ and CD8+ tumour infiltrate. MHC-II+ tumours can be identified by melanoma-specific immunohistochemistry using commercially available antibodies for HLA-DR to improve anti-PD-1 patient selection. PMID:26822383

  14. A sample of [C II] clouds tracing dense clouds in weak FUV fields observed by Herschel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pineda, J. L.; Velusamy, T.; Langer, W. D.; Goldsmith, P. F.; Li, D.; Yorke, H. W.

    2010-10-01

    The [C ii] fine-structure line at 158 μm is an excellent tracer of the warm diffuse gas in the ISM and the interfaces between molecular clouds and their surrounding atomic and ionized envelopes. Here we present the initial results from Galactic observations of terahertz C+ (GOT C+), a Herschel key project devoted to studying the [C ii] emission in the Galactic plane using the HIFI instrument. We used the [C ii] emission, together with observations of CO, as a probe to understand the effects of newly formed stars on their interstellar environment and characterize the physical and chemical state of the star-forming gas. We collected data along 16 lines-of-sight passing near star-forming regions in the inner Galaxy near longitudes 330° and 20°. We identified fifty-eight [C ii] components that are associated with high-column density molecular clouds as traced by 13CO emission. We combined [C ii], 12CO, and 13CO observations to derive the physical conditions of the [C ii]-emitting regions in our sample of high-column density clouds based on comparing results from a grid of photon dominated region (PDR) models. From this unbiased sample, our results suggest that most of the [C ii] emission originates in clouds with H2 volume densities between 103.5 and 105.5 cm-3 and weak FUV strength (χ0 = 1-10). We find two regions where our analysis suggest high densities >105 cm-3 and strong FUV fields (χ0 = 104-106), likely associated with massive star formation. We suggest that [C ii] emission in conjunction with CO isotopes is a good tool for differentiating regions of massive star formation (high densities/strong FUV fields) and regions that are distant from massive stars (lower densities/weaker FUV fields) along the line-of-sight. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

  15. Bullying Predicts Reported Dating Violence and Observed Qualities in Adolescent Dating Relationships.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Wendy E; Wolfe, David A

    2015-10-01

    The relationship between reported bullying, reported dating violence, and dating relationship quality measured through couple observations was examined. Given past research demonstrating similarity between peer and dating contexts, we expected that bullying would predict negative dating experiences. Participants with dating experience (n = 585; 238 males, M(age) = 15.06) completed self-report assessments of bullying and dating violence perpetration and victimization. One month later, 44 opposite-sex dyads (M(age) = 15.19) participated in behavioral observations. In 10-min sessions, couples were asked to rank and discuss areas of relationship conflict while being video-recorded. Qualities of the relationship were later coded by trained observers. Regression analysis revealed that bullying positively predicted dating violence perpetration and victimization. Self-reported bullying also predicted observations of lower relationship support and higher withdrawal. Age and gender interactions further qualified these findings. The bullying of boys, but not girls, was significantly related to dating violence perpetration. Age interactions showed that bullying was positively predictive of dating violence perpetration and victimization for older, but not younger adolescents. Positive affect was also negatively predicted by bullying, but only for girls. These findings add to the growing body of evidence that adolescents carry forward strategies learned in the peer context to their dating relationships. © The Author(s) 2014.

  16. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    PubMed

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Pillars and globules at the edges of H ii regions. Confronting Herschel observations and numerical simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tremblin, P.; Minier, V.; Schneider, N.; Audit, E.; Hill, T.; Didelon, P.; Peretto, N.; Arzoumanian, D.; Motte, F.; Zavagno, A.; Bontemps, S.; Anderson, L. D.; André, Ph.; Bernard, J. P.; Csengeri, T.; Di Francesco, J.; Elia, D.; Hennemann, M.; Könyves, V.; Marston, A. P.; Nguyen Luong, Q.; Rivera-Ingraham, A.; Roussel, H.; Sousbie, T.; Spinoglio, L.; White, G. J.; Williams, J.

    2013-12-01

    Context. Herschel far-infrared imaging observations have revealed the density structure of the interface between H ii regions and molecular clouds in great detail. In particular, pillars and globules are present in many high-mass star-forming regions, such as the Eagle nebula (M 16) and the Rosette molecular cloud, and understanding their origin will help characterize triggered star formation. Aims: The formation mechanisms of these structures are still being debated. The initial morphology of the molecular cloud and its turbulent state are key parameters since they generate deformations and curvatures of the shell during the expansion of the H ii region. Recent numerical simulations have shown how pillars can arise from the collapse of the shell in on itself and how globules can be formed from the interplay of the turbulent molecular cloud and the ionization from massive stars. The goal here is to test this scenario through recent observations of two massive star-forming regions, M 16 and the Rosette molecular cloud. Methods: First, the column density structure of the interface between molecular clouds and associated H ii regions was characterized using column density maps obtained from far-infrared imaging of the Herschel HOBYS key programme. Then, the DisPerSe algorithm was used on these maps to detect the compressed layers around the ionized gas and pillars in different evolutionary states. Column density profiles were constructed. Finally, their velocity structure was investigated using CO data, and all observational signatures were tested against some distinct diagnostics established from simulations. Results: The column density profiles have revealed the importance of compression at the edge of the ionized gas. The velocity properties of the structures, i.e. pillars and globules, are very close to what we predict from the numerical simulations. We have identified a good candidate of a nascent pillar in the Rosette molecular cloud that presents the velocity

  18. Surgical prediction of skeletal and soft tissue changes in treatment of Class II.

    PubMed

    de Lira, Ana de Lourdes Sá; de Moura, Walter Leal; Artese, Flávia; Bittencourt, Marcos Alan Vieira; Nojima, Lincoln Issamu

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to study the treatment outcomes and the accuracy of digital prediction and the actual postoperative outcome with Dolphin program on subjects presenting Class II malocclusions. Forty patients underwent surgical mandibular advancement (Group 1) and 40 underwent combined surgery of mandibular advancement and maxillary impaction (Group 2). The available pre surgical (t₁) and a minimum of 12 months post surgical (t₂) cephalometric radiographs were digitized. Predictive cephalograms (t₃) for both groups were traced. At all times evaluated, Group 1 displayed a shorter mandibular length and Group 2 had a longer lower face. In both groups the surgical interventions (t₂) were greater than initially predicted. There was no significant difference between groups with regards to overjet, overbite and soft tissue measurements. In both groups surgeries were more extensive than planned. Facial convexity and the distance of the lips to cranial base presented similar values between t₂ (post surgical) and t₃ (predicted). Copyright © 2012 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. UV and X-ray Evolution of AR12230 as Observed with IRIS and FOXSI-II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, Daniel; Christe, Steven; Glesener, Lindsay; Vievering, Julie; Krucker, Sam; Ishikawa, Shin-Nosuke

    2017-08-01

    We present a multi-spectral and spatio-temporal analysis of AR12230 using both UV and X-ray spectroscopic imaging obtained as part of a coordinated observing campaign on 11 December 2014. The campaign involved IRIS (Interface Region Imaging Spectrometer) -- which provides both UV imaging and slit spectrograph observations of optically thick chromospheric and transition region emission -- and FOXSI-II (Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager) -- the second in a series of sounding rocket flights which combines grazing incidence direct focusing optics to produce solar X-ray spectroscopic imaging in the range 4-15keV. The active region exhibits a prolonged compact brightening in the IRIS 1330 A and 1400 A slit-jaw channels near the center of the active region throughout the duration of the observations. In the early phase of the observations FOXSI-II shows an X-ray source approximately 20x20 arcsec centered at the same location. The X-ray spectra show the presence of hot (~8 MK) thermal plasma and is suggestive of the presence of non-thermal electrons.. Later, two additional transient, spatially extended, simultaneous brightenings are observed, one of which was captured by the IRIS slit spectrograph. We combine these observations to explore the evolution and topology of the active region. Hydrodynamic modeling of the chromosphere is used to place a limit on the amount of non-thermal electrons required to produce the observed UV emission. This result is then compared to the limit inferred from the FOXSI-II X-ray spectra. Thus, we explore the role of non-thermal electrons and hydrodynamics in the energization and evolution of plasma in active regions.

  20. Prediction and Observation of Post-Admission Hematoma Expansion in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Ovesen, Christian; Havsteen, Inger; Rosenbaum, Sverre; Christensen, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Post-admission hematoma expansion in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) comprises a simultaneous major clinical problem and a possible target for medical intervention. In any case, the ability to predict and observe hematoma expansion is of great clinical importance. We review radiological concepts in predicting and observing post-admission hematoma expansion. Hematoma expansion can be observed within the first 24 h after symptom onset, but predominantly occurs in the early hours. Thus capturing markers of on-going bleeding on imaging techniques could predict hematoma expansion. The spot sign observed on computed tomography angiography is believed to represent on-going bleeding and is to date the most well investigated and reliable radiological predictor of hematoma expansion as well as functional outcome and mortality. On non-contrast CT, the presence of foci of hypoattenuation within the hematoma along with the hematoma-size is reported to be predictive of hematoma expansion and outcome. Because patients tend to arrive earlier to the hospital, a larger fraction of acute ICH-patients must be expected to undergo hematoma expansion. This renders observation and radiological follow-up investigations increasingly relevant. Transcranial duplex sonography has in recent years proven to be able to estimate hematoma volume with good precision and could be a valuable tool in bedside serial observation of acute ICH-patients. Future studies will elucidate, if better prediction and observation of post-admission hematoma expansion can help select patients, who will benefit from hemostatic treatment. PMID:25324825

  1. Mineral and nitrogen balance study - Results of metabolic observations on Skylab II 28-day orbital mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whedon, G. D.; Lutwak, L.; Reid, J.; Rambaut, P.; Whittle, M.; Smith, M.; Leach, C.

    1975-01-01

    The prediction that various stresses of flight, particularly weightlessness, would bring about significant derangements in the metabolism of the musculoskeletal system has been based on various balance-study observations of long-term immobilized or inactive bed rest. The three astronauts of Skylab II consumed a planned dietary intake of major metabolic elements in mixed foods and beverages and provided virtually complete collections of excreta for 31 days preflight, 28 days inflight, and 17 days postflight. Analyses showed that, in varying degree among the crewmen, urinary calcium increased gradually during flight in a pattern similar to that observed in bed-rest studies. Fecal calcium excretion did not change significantly, but calcium balance, owing to the urinary calcium rise, became either negative or less positive than in preflight measurement. Increased excretion and negative nitrogen and phosphorus balances inflight indicated appreciable loss of muscle tissue in all three crewmen. Significant losses also occurred inflight in potassium, sodium, and magnesium. Based on the similarity in pattern and degree between these observations of calcium, phosphorus, and nitrogen loss, musculoskeletal integrity would not be threatened in space flights of up to at least 3 months. However, if similar changes occur in the planed Skylab flights for considerably more than 28 days, concern for capable musculoskeletal function should be serious for flights of very many months' duration.

  2. 1969 - 2010: Multicolor Photometric Observations of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philip, A. G. Davis

    2010-05-01

    From 1969 to 2010 I have been involved in a photometric study of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch stars. I started by making Stromgren four-color observations at Kitt Peak National Observatory and then Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. I had taken spectral plates of all my selected areas on which I marked all the A-type stars. These stars were then observed photometrically. New FHB stars could be identified by their large c1 indices, caused by their greater (u-b) colors. Later four new filters were added ( U V B S ). With Richard Boyle of the Vatican Observatory we observed on Mt. Graham (Arizona) on the Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope.We plan follow-up observations of the new FHB stars found.

  3. Short-arc measurement and fitting based on the bidirectional prediction of observed data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fei, Zhigen; Xu, Xiaojie; Georgiadis, Anthimos

    2016-02-01

    To measure a short arc is a notoriously difficult problem. In this study, the bidirectional prediction method based on the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) to the observed data distributed along a short arc is proposed to increase the corresponding arc length, and thus improve its fitting accuracy. Firstly, the rationality of regarding observed data as a time series is discussed in accordance with the definition of a time series. Secondly, the RBFNN is constructed to predict the observed data where the interpolation method is used for enlarging the size of training examples in order to improve the learning accuracy of the RBFNN’s parameters. Finally, in the numerical simulation section, we focus on simulating how the size of the training sample and noise level influence the learning error and prediction error of the built RBFNN. Typically, the observed data coming from a 5{}^\\circ short arc are used to evaluate the performance of the Hyper method known as the ‘unbiased fitting method of circle’ with a different noise level before and after prediction. A number of simulation experiments reveal that the fitting stability and accuracy of the Hyper method after prediction are far superior to the ones before prediction.

  4. Ensemble-sensitivity Analysis Based Observation Targeting for Mesoscale Convection Forecasts and Factors Influencing Observation-Impact Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, A.; Weiss, C.; Ancell, B. C.

    2017-12-01

    The basic premise of observation targeting is that additional observations, when gathered and assimilated with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, will produce a more accurate forecast related to a specific phenomenon. Ensemble-sensitivity analysis (ESA; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008) is a tool capable of accurately estimating the proper location of targeted observations in areas that have initial model uncertainty and large error growth, as well as predicting the reduction of forecast variance due to the assimilated observation. ESA relates an ensemble of NWP model forecasts, specifically an ensemble of scalar forecast metrics, linearly to earlier model states. A thorough investigation is presented to determine how different factors of the forecast process are impacting our ability to successfully target new observations for mesoscale convection forecasts. Our primary goals for this work are to determine: (1) If targeted observations hold more positive impact over non-targeted (i.e. randomly chosen) observations; (2) If there are lead-time constraints to targeting for convection; (3) How inflation, localization, and the assimilation filter influence impact prediction and realized results; (4) If there exist differences between targeted observations at the surface versus aloft; and (5) how physics errors and nonlinearity may augment observation impacts.Ten cases of dryline-initiated convection between 2011 to 2013 are simulated within a simplified OSSE framework and presented here. Ensemble simulations are produced from a cycling system that utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model v3.8.1 within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). A "truth" (nature) simulation is produced by supplying a 3-km WRF run with GFS analyses and integrating the model forward 90 hours, from the beginning of ensemble initialization through the end of the forecast. Target locations for surface and radiosonde observations are computed 6, 12, and

  5. Structure prediction of Fe(II) 2-oxoglutarate dioxygenase from a psychrophilic yeast Glaciozyma antarctica PI12

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusof, Nik Yusnoraini; Bakar, Farah Diba Abu; Mahadi, Nor Muhammad; Raih, Mohd Firdaus; Murad, Abdul Munir Abdul

    2015-09-01

    A cDNA encoding Fe(II) 2-oxoglutarate (2OG) dependent dioxygenases was isolated from psychrophilic yeast, Glaciozyma antarctica PI12. We have successfully amplified 1,029 bp cDNA sequence that encodes 342 amino acid with predicted molecular weight 38 kDa. The prediction protein was analysed using various bioinformatics tools to explore the properties of the protein. Based on a BLAST search analysis, the Fe2OX amino acid sequence showed 61% identity to the sequence of oxoglutarate/iron-dependent oxygenase from Rhodosporidium toruloides NP11. SignalP prediction showed that the Fe2OX protein contains no putative signal peptide, which suggests that this enzyme most probably localised intracellularly.The structure of Fe2OX was predicted by homology modelling using MODELLER9v11. The model with the lowest objective function was selected from hundred models generated using MODELLER9v11. Analysis of the structure revealed the longer loop at Fe2OX from G.antarctica that might be responsible for the flexibility of the structure, which contributes to its adaptation to low temperatures. Fe2OX hold a highly conserved Fe(II) binding HXD/E…H triad motif. The binding site for 2-oxoglutarate was found conserved for Arg280 among reported studies, however the Phe268 was found to be different in Fe2OX.

  6. A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    Background The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. Methods and finding We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755–0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691–0.783) and 0.742 (0.698–0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. Conclusions According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction. PMID:28060903

  7. A Comparison of a Machine Learning Model with EuroSCORE II in Predicting Mortality after Elective Cardiac Surgery: A Decision Curve Analysis.

    PubMed

    Allyn, Jérôme; Allou, Nicolas; Augustin, Pascal; Philip, Ivan; Martinet, Olivier; Belghiti, Myriem; Provenchere, Sophie; Montravers, Philippe; Ferdynus, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    The benefits of cardiac surgery are sometimes difficult to predict and the decision to operate on a given individual is complex. Machine Learning and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) are recent methods developed to create and evaluate prediction models. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using a prospective collected database from December 2005 to December 2012, from a cardiac surgical center at University Hospital. The different models of prediction of mortality in-hospital after elective cardiac surgery, including EuroSCORE II, a logistic regression model and a machine learning model, were compared by ROC and DCA. Of the 6,520 patients having elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, 6.3% died. Mean age was 63.4 years old (standard deviation 14.4), and mean EuroSCORE II was 3.7 (4.8) %. The area under ROC curve (IC95%) for the machine learning model (0.795 (0.755-0.834)) was significantly higher than EuroSCORE II or the logistic regression model (respectively, 0.737 (0.691-0.783) and 0.742 (0.698-0.785), p < 0.0001). Decision Curve Analysis showed that the machine learning model, in this monocentric study, has a greater benefit whatever the probability threshold. According to ROC and DCA, machine learning model is more accurate in predicting mortality after elective cardiac surgery than EuroSCORE II. These results confirm the use of machine learning methods in the field of medical prediction.

  8. Potential Seasonal Predictability of Water Cycle in Observations and Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, X.; Houser, P.

    2012-12-01

    Identification of predictability of water cycle variability is crucial for climate prediction, water resources availability, ecosystem management and hazard mitigation. An analysis that can assess the potential skill in seasonal prediction was proposed by the authors, named as analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA). This method tests whether interannual variability of seasonal means exceeds that due to weather noise under the null hypothesis that seasonal means are identical every year. It has the advantage of taking into account autocorrelation structure in the daily time series but also accounting for the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the significance test. During the past several years, multiple reanalysis datasets have become available for studying climate variability and understanding climate system. We are motivated to compare the potential predictability of water cycle variation from different reanalysis datasets against observations using the newly proposed ANOCOVA method. The selected eight reanalyses include the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) 40-year Reanalysis Project (NNRP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Reanalysis Project (NDRP), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year Reanalysis, The Japan Meteorological Agency 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA25), the ECMWF) Interim Reanalysis (ERAINT), the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA/CIRES) 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2 (20CR). For key water cycle components, precipitation and evaporation, all reanalyses consistently show high fraction of predictable variance in the tropics, low

  9. AAA gunnermodel based on observer theory. [predicting a gunner's tracking response

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kou, R. S.; Glass, B. C.; Day, C. N.; Vikmanis, M. M.

    1978-01-01

    The Luenberger observer theory is used to develop a predictive model of a gunner's tracking response in antiaircraft artillery systems. This model is composed of an observer, a feedback controller and a remnant element. An important feature of the model is that the structure is simple, hence a computer simulation requires only a short execution time. A parameter identification program based on the least squares curve fitting method and the Gauss Newton gradient algorithm is developed to determine the parameter values of the gunner model. Thus, a systematic procedure exists for identifying model parameters for a given antiaircraft tracking task. Model predictions of tracking errors are compared with human tracking data obtained from manned simulation experiments. Model predictions are in excellent agreement with the empirical data for several flyby and maneuvering target trajectories.

  10. [Value of procalcitonin on predicting the severity and prognosis in patients with early ARDS: a prospective observation study].

    PubMed

    Yu, Zhixin; Ji, Musen; Hu, Xiulan; Yan, Jun; Jin, Zhaochen

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the value of procalcitonin (PCT) on predicting the severity and prognosis in patients with early acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). A prospective observation study was conducted. A total of 113 patients with ARDS undergoing mechanical ventilation admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Affiliated People's Hospital of Jiangsu University from October 2012 to April 2016 were enrolled. Based on oxygenation index (PaO 2 /FiO 2 ), the patients were classified into mild, moderate, and severe groups according to Berlin Definition. Twenty-five healthy volunteers were served as controls. Demographics, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and Murray lung injury score were recorded. Within 24 hours after diagnosis of ARDS, the serum levels of PCT and C-reactive protein (CRP) were determined by enzyme-linked fluorescence analysis (ELFA) and immune turbidimetric method, respectively. The patients were also divided into survival and non-survival groups according to clinical outcome within 28-day follow-up, and the clinical data were compared between the two groups. Spearman rank correlation was applied to determine the correlation between variables. The predictive value of the parameters on 28-day mortality was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis was used to compare different PCT levels of patients with 28-day cumulative survival rate. After excluding patients who did not meet the inclusion criteria and loss to follow-up, the final 89 patients were enrolled in the analysis. Among 89 ARDS patients analyzed, 27 of them were mild, 34 moderate, and 28 severe ARDS. No significant differences were found in age and gender between ARDS and healthy control groups. Infection and trauma were the most common etiology of ARDS (55.1% and 34.8%, respectively). Compared with healthy control group, both CRP and PCT in serum of ARDS group were higher [CRP (mg/L): 146.32 (111

  11. Probing HeII Reionization at z>3.5 with Resolved HeII Lyman Alpha Forest Spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worseck, Gabor

    2017-08-01

    The advent of GALEX and COS have revolutionized our view of HeII reionization, the final major phase transition of the intergalactic medium. COS spectra of the HeII Lyman alpha forest have confirmed with high confidence the high HeII transmission that signifies the completion of HeII reionization at z 2.7. However, the handful of z>3.5 quasars observed to date show a set of HeII transmission 'spikes' and larger regions with non-zero transmission that suggest HeII reionization was well underway by z=4. This is in striking conflict with predictions from state-of-the-art radiative transfer simulations of a HeII reionization driven by bright quasars. Explaining these measurements may require either faint quasars or more exotic sources of hard photons at z>4, with concomitant implications for HI reionization. However, many of the observed spikes are unresolved in G140L spectra and are significantly impacted by Poisson noise. Current data cannot reliably probe the ionization state of helium at z>3.5.We request 41 orbits to obtain science-grade G130M spectra of the two UV-brightest HeII-transmitting QSOs at z>3.5 to confirm and resolve their HeII transmission spikes as an unequivocal test of early HeII reionization. These spectra are complemented by recently obtained data from 8m telescopes: (1) Echelle spectra of the coeval HI Lya forest to map the underlying density field that modulates the HeII absorption, and (2) Our dedicated survey for foreground QSOs that may source the HeII transmission. Our recent HST programs revealed the only two viable targets to resolve the z>3.5 HeII Lyman alpha forest, and to conclusively solve this riddle.

  12. Relationships of Measurement Error and Prediction Error in Observed-Score Regression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moses, Tim

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this paper is assessing the impact of measurement errors on the prediction error of an observed-score regression. Measures are presented and described for decomposing the linear regression's prediction error variance into parts attributable to the true score variance and the error variances of the dependent variable and the predictor…

  13. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spann, J. F.; Swenson, C.; Durão, O.; Loures, L.; Heelis, R. A.; Bishop, R. L.; Le, G.; Abdu, M. A.; Habash Krause, L.; De Nardin, C. M.; Fonseca, E.

    2015-12-01

    Structure in the charged particle number density in the equatorial ionosphere can have a profound impact on the fidelity of HF, VHF and UHF radio signals that are used for ground-to-ground and space-to-ground communication and navigation. The degree to which such systems can be compromised depends in large part on the spatial distribution of the structured regions in the ionosphere and the background plasma density in which they are embedded. In order to address these challenges it is necessary to accurately distinguish the background ionospheric conditions that favor the generation of irregularities from those that do not. Additionally we must relate the evolution of those conditions to the subsequent evolution of the irregular plasma regions themselves. The background ionospheric conditions are conveniently described by latitudinal profiles of the plasma density at nearly constant altitude, which describe the effects of ExB drifts and neutral winds, while the appearance and growth of plasma structure requires committed observations from the ground from at least one fixed longitude. This talk will present an international collaborative CubeSat mission called SPORT that stands for Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task. This mission that will advance our understanding of the nature and evolution of ionospheric structures around sunset to improve predictions of disturbances that affect radio propagation and telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator. This approach promises Explorer class science at a CubeSat price.

  14. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spann, James; Le, Guan; Swenson, Charles; Denardini, Clezio Marcos; Bishop, Rebecca L.; Abdu, Mangalathayil A.; Cupertino Durao, Otavio S.; Heelis, Roderick; Loures, Luis; Krause, Linda; Fonseca, Eloi

    2016-07-01

    Structure in the charged particle number density in the equatorial ionosphere can have a profound impact on the fidelity of HF, VHF and UHF radio signals that are used for ground-to-ground and space-to-ground communication and navigation. The degree to which such systems can be compromised depends in large part on the spatial distribution of the structured regions in the ionosphere and the background plasma density in which they are embedded. In order to address these challenges it is necessary to accurately distinguish the background ionospheric conditions that favor the generation of irregularities from those that do not. Additionally we must relate the evolution of those conditions to the subsequent evolution of the irregular plasma regions themselves. The background ionospheric conditions are conveniently described by latitudinal profiles of the plasma density at nearly constant altitude, which describe the effects of ExB drifts and neutral winds, while the appearance and growth of plasma structure requires committed observations from the ground from at least one fixed longitude. This talk will present an international collaborative CubeSat mission called SPORT that stands for the Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task. This mission will advance our understanding of the nature and evolution of ionospheric structures around sunset to improve predictions of disturbances that affect radio propagation and telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator. This approach promises Explorer class science at a CubeSat price.

  15. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durão, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Nardin, Clezio; Fonseca, Eloi

    2016-04-01

    Structure in the charged particle number density in the equatorial ionosphere can have a profound impact on the fidelity of HF, VHF and UHF radio signals that are used for ground-to-ground and space-to-ground communication and navigation. The degree to which such systems can be compromised depends in large part on the spatial distribution of the structured regions in the ionosphere and the background plasma density in which they are embedded. In order to address these challenges it is necessary to accurately distinguish the background ionospheric conditions that favor the generation of irregularities from those that do not. Additionally we must relate the evolution of those conditions to the subsequent evolution of the irregular plasma regions themselves. The background ionospheric conditions are conveniently described by latitudinal profiles of the plasma density at nearly constant altitude, which describe the effects of ExB drifts and neutral winds, while the appearance and growth of plasma structure requires committed observations from the ground from at least one fixed longitude. This talk will present an international collaborative CubeSat mission called SPORT that stands for the Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task. This mission will advance our understanding of the nature and evolution of ionospheric structures around sunset to improve predictions of disturbances that affect radio propagation and telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator. This approach promises Explorer class science at a CubeSat price.

  16. Challenges and Opportunities with Predicting in Vivo Phase II Metabolism via Glucuronidation from in Vitro Data

    PubMed Central

    Ge, Shufan; Tu, Yifan; Hu, Ming

    2017-01-01

    Glucuronidation is the most important phase II metabolic pathway which is responsible for the clearance of many endogenous and exogenous compounds. To better understand the elimination process for compounds undergoing glucuronidation and identify compounds with desirable in vivo pharmacokinetic properties, many efforts have been made to predict in vivo glucuronidation using in vitro data. In this article, we reviewed typical approaches used in previous predictions. The problems and challenges in prediction of glucuronidation were discussed. Besides that different incubation conditions can affect the prediction accuracy, other factors including efflux / uptake transporters, enterohepatic recycling, and deglucuronidation reactions also contribute to the disposition of glucuronides and make the prediction more difficult. PBPK modeling, which can describe more complicated process in vivo, is a promising prediction strategy which may greatly improve the prediction of glucuronidation and potential DDIs involving glucuronidation. Based on previous studies, we proposed a transport-glucuronidation classification system, which was built based on the kinetics of both glucuronidation and transport of the glucuronide. This system could be a very useful tool to achieve better in vivo predictions. PMID:28966903

  17. Cometary compact H II regions are stellar-wind bow shocks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Buren, Dave; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark; Wood, Douglas O. S.; Churchwell, ED

    1990-01-01

    Comet-shaped H II regions, like G34.3 + 0.2, are easily explained as bow shocks created by wind-blowing massive stars moving supersonically through molecular clouds. The required velocities of the stars through dense clumps are less than about 10 km/s, comparable to the velocity dispersion of stars in OB associations. An analytic model of bow shocks matches the gross characteristics seen in the radio continuum and the velocity structure inferred from hydrogen recombination and molecular line observations. The champagne flow model cannot account for these structures. VLBI observations of masers associated with the shells of cometary compact H II regions should reveal tailward proper motions predominantly parallel to the shell, rather than perpendicular. It is predicted that over a decade baseline, high signal-to-noise VLA observations of this class of objects will show headward pattern motion in the direction of the symmetry axis, but not expansion. Finally, shock-generated and coronal infrared lines are also predicted.

  18. PREDICTION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM STRENGTH FROM INNER HELIOSPHERIC IN SITU OBSERVATIONS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kubicka, M.; Möstl, C.; Amerstorfer, T.

    2016-12-20

    Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B{sub z}. Predicting the strength and duration of B{sub z} inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B{sub z} problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B{sub z}, and resulting disturbance storm time ( Dst ) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interactingmore » CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX , resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind . Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s{sup −1}; observed: 488 ± 30 km s{sup −1}), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.« less

  19. Second Epoch VLBA Calibrator Survey Observations: VCS-II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, David; Jacobs, Christopher; Beasley, Anthony; Peck, Alison; Gaume, Ralph; Charlot, Patrick; Fey, Alan; Ma, Chopo; Titov, Oleg; Boboltz, David

    2016-06-01

    Six very successful Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) calibrator survey campaigns were run between 1994 and 2007 to build up a large list of compact radio sources with positions precise enough for use as very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) phase reference calibrators. We report on the results of a second epoch VLBA Calibrator Survey campaign (VCS-II) in which 2400 VCS sources were re-observed in the X and S bands in order to improve the upcoming third realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3) as well as to improve their usefulness as VLBI phase reference calibrators. In this survey, some 2062 previously detected sources and 324 previously undetected sources were detected and revised positions are presented. Average position uncertainties for the re-observed sources were reduced from 1.14 and 1.98 mas to 0.24 and 0.41 mas in R.A. and decl., respectively, or by nearly a factor of 5. Minimum detected flux values were approximately 15 and 28 mJy in the X and S bands, respectively, and median total fluxes are approximately 230 and 280 mJy. The vast majority of these sources are flat-spectrum sources, with ˜82% having spectral indices greater than -0.5.

  20. Star formation towards the Galactic H II region RCW 120. Herschel observations of compact sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueira, M.; Zavagno, A.; Deharveng, L.; Russeil, D.; Anderson, L. D.; Men'shchikov, A.; Schneider, N.; Hill, T.; Motte, F.; Mège, P.; LeLeu, G.; Roussel, H.; Bernard, J.-P.; Traficante, A.; Paradis, D.; Tigé, J.; André, P.; Bontemps, S.; Abergel, A.

    2017-04-01

    Context. The expansion of H II regions can trigger the formation of stars. An overdensity of young stellar objects is observed at the edges of H II regions but the mechanisms that give rise to this phenomenon are not clearly identified. Moreover, it is difficult to establish a causal link between H II -region expansion and the star formation observed at the edges of these regions. A clear age gradient observed in the spatial distribution of young sources in the surrounding might be a strong argument in favor of triggering. Aims: We aim to characterize the star formation observed at the edges of H II regions by studying the properties of young stars that form there. We aim to detect young sources, derive their properties and their evolution stage in order to discuss the possible causal link between the first-generation massive stars that form the H II region and the young sources observed at their edges. Methods: We have observed the Galactic H II region RCW 120 with Herschel PACS and SPIRE photometers at 70, 100, 160, 250, 350 and 500 μm. We produced temperature and H2 column density maps and use the getsources algorithm to detect compact sources and measure their fluxes at Herschel wavelengths. We have complemented these fluxes with existing infrared data. Fitting their spectral energy distributions with a modified blackbody model, we derived their envelope dust temperature and envelope mass. We computed their bolometric luminosities and discuss their evolutionary stages. Results: The overall temperatures of the region (without background subtraction) range from 15 K to 24 K. The warmest regions are observed towards the ionized gas. The coldest regions are observed outside the ionized gas and follow the emission of the cold material previously detected at 870 μm and 1.3 mm. The H2 column density map reveals the distribution of the cold medium to be organized in filaments and highly structured. Column densities range from 7 × 1021 cm-2 up to 9 × 1023 cm-2

  1. Comparison of observed and predicted abutment scour at selected bridges in Maine.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-01-01

    Maximum abutment-scour depths predicted with five different methods were compared to : maximum abutment-scour depths observed at 100 abutments at 50 bridge sites in Maine with a : median bridge age of 66 years. Prediction methods included the Froehli...

  2. NABOS-II Observational Program in the Arctic Ocean: New Perspectives and New Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, V.; Polyakov, I.; Ashik, I. M.; Pnyushkov, A.; Alkire, M. B.; Repina, I.; Alexeev, V. A.; Waddington, I.; Kanzow, T.; Goszczko, I.; Rember, R.; Artamonov, A.

    2016-02-01

    NABOS-II observational program was launched in 2013 on the basis of new knowledge obtained during NABOS (=Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observations System) project back in 2000s. Up to now two large scale expeditions in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean were carried out in framework of NABOS-II: in 2013 and in 2015. These field studies were conducted by International Arctic Research Center (IARC) University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA in partnership with Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) St.Petersburg Russia. The main goal of the NABOS-II project is to provide quantitative assessment of circulation and water mass transformation along the principal pathways transporting water from the Nordic Seas to the Arctic Basin under conditions of substantially reduced summer ice cover. Reduced sea ice causes changes in the water column and in the overlying atmosphere. Documenting of these changes was the main target of the NABOS-II cruises. The scope of this goal and the opportunities of extended scientific research in the Arctic, provided during NABOS expeditions, encouraged scientific institutions from the USA, Europe and Asia to raise funds, contribute to the cruise program and to send their personnel to expeditions, thus giving them a true multidisciplinary status. The ambitious mission of collecting a two year long time series of hydrographic data at 6 moorings along 126E meridian from the upper slope (250 m depth) to the deep basin (3900 m depth) in the Laptev Sea was successfully accomplished in 2015. The collected data are truly unique, since they shed new light on the structure and spatio-temporal variability of water properties and transports in the Lapev Sea, which is the key region for understanding of interaction between Atlantic water branches. This presentation describes preliminary results of performed analysis.

  3. NABOS-II Observational Program in the Arctic Ocean: New Perspectives and new Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanov, Vladimir; Polyakov, Igor; Ashik, Igor; Pnyushkov, Andrey; Alkire, Matthew; Repina, Irina; Alexeev, Vladimir; Waddington, Ian; Kanzow, Torsten; Rember, Robert; Artamonov, Alexander; Goszczko, Ilona

    2016-04-01

    NABOS-II observational program was launched in 2013 on the basis of new knowledge obtained during NABOS (=Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observations System) project back in 2000s. Up to now two large scale expeditions in the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean were carried out in framework of NABOS-II: in 2013 and in 2015. These field studies were conducted by International Arctic Research Center (IARC) University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA in partnership with Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) St.Petersburg Russia. The main goal of the NABOS-II project is to provide quantitative assessment of circulation and water mass transformation along the principal pathways transporting water from the Nordic Seas to the Arctic Basin under conditions of substantially reduced summer ice cover. Reduced sea ice causes changes in the water column and in the overlying atmosphere. Documenting of these changes was the main target of the NABOS-II cruises. The scope of this goal and the opportunities of extended scientific research in the Arctic, provided during NABOS expeditions, encouraged scientific institutions from the USA, Europe and Asia to raise funds, contribute to the cruise program and to send their personnel to expeditions, thus giving them a true multidisciplinary status. The ambitious mission of collecting a two year long time series of hydrographic data at 6 moorings along 126E meridian from the upper slope (250 m depth) to the deep basin (3900 m depth) in the Laptev Sea was successfully accomplished in 2015. The collected data are truly unique, since they shed new light on the structure and spatio-temporal variability of water properties and transports in the Lapev Sea, which is the key region for understanding of interaction between Atlantic water branches. This presentation describes preliminary results of performed analysis.

  4. A Study of Impairing Injuries in Real World Crashes Using the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS) and the Predicted Functional Capacity Index (PFCI-AIS)

    PubMed Central

    Barnes, Jo; Morris, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    The ability to predict impairment outcomes in large databases using a simplified technique allows researchers to focus attention on preventing costly impairing injuries. The dilemma that exists for researchers is to determine which method is the most reliable and valid. This study examines available methods to predict impairment and explores the differences between the IIS and pFCI applied to real world crash injury data. Occupant injury data from the UK Co-operative Crash Injury Study (CCIS) database have been coded using AIS 1990 and AIS 2005. The data have subsequently been recoded using the associated impairment scales namely the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS) and the predicted Functional Capacity Index (pFCI) to determine the predicted impairment levels of injuries at one year post crash. Comparisons between the levels of impairment were made and any differences further explored. Injury data for the period February 2006 to September 2008 from the CCIS database were used in the analysis which involved a dataset of 2,437 occcupants who sustained over 8000 injuries. This study found some differences between the impairment scales for injuries coded to the AIS 1990 and AIS 2005 coding dictionaries. The pFCI predicts 31.5% of injuries to be impairing in AIS 2005, less than the IIS (38.5%) using AIS 1990. Using CCIS data the pFCI predicted that only 6% of the occupants with a coded injury would have an impairing injury compared to 24% of occupants using the IIS. The main body regions identified as having the major differences between the two impairment scales for car occupants were the head and spine. Follow up data were then used for a small number of cases (n=31, lower extremity and whiplash injuries) to examine any differences in predicted impairment versus perceived impairment. These data were selected from a previous study conducted between 2003 and 2006 and identified the discrepancy between predicted impairment and actual perceived impairment as defined by the

  5. A study of impairing injuries in real world crashes using the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS) and the predicted Functional Capacity Index (PFCI-AIS).

    PubMed

    Barnes, Jo; Morris, Andrew

    2009-10-01

    The ability to predict impairment outcomes in large databases using a simplified technique allows researchers to focus attention on preventing costly impairing injuries. The dilemma that exists for researchers is to determine which method is the most reliable and valid. This study examines available methods to predict impairment and explores the differences between the IIS and pFCI applied to real world crash injury data. Occupant injury data from the UK Co-operative Crash Injury Study (CCIS) database have been coded using AIS 1990 and AIS 2005. The data have subsequently been recoded using the associated impairment scales namely the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS) and the predicted Functional Capacity Index (pFCI) to determine the predicted impairment levels of injuries at one year post crash. Comparisons between the levels of impairment were made and any differences further explored. Injury data for the period February 2006 to September 2008 from the CCIS database were used in the analysis which involved a dataset of 2,437 occcupants who sustained over 8000 injuries. This study found some differences between the impairment scales for injuries coded to the AIS 1990 and AIS 2005 coding dictionaries. The pFCI predicts 31.5% of injuries to be impairing in AIS 2005, less than the IIS (38.5%) using AIS 1990. Using CCIS data the pFCI predicted that only 6% of the occupants with a coded injury would have an impairing injury compared to 24% of occupants using the IIS. The main body regions identified as having the major differences between the two impairment scales for car occupants were the head and spine. Follow up data were then used for a small number of cases (n=31, lower extremity and whiplash injuries) to examine any differences in predicted impairment versus perceived impairment. These data were selected from a previous study conducted between 2003 and 2006 and identified the discrepancy between predicted impairment and actual perceived impairment as defined by the

  6. Assessing the Incremental Value of KABC-II Luria Model Scores in Predicting Achievement: What Do They Tell Us beyond the MPI?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGill, Ryan J.; Spurgin, Angelia R.

    2016-01-01

    The current study examined the incremental validity of the Luria interpretive scheme for the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children-Second Edition (KABC-II) for predicting scores on the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement-Second Edition (KTEA-II). All participants were children and adolescents (N = 2,025) drawn from the nationally…

  7. Binding Site and Potency Prediction of Teixobactin and other Lipid II Ligands by Statistical Base Scoring of Conformational Space Maps.

    PubMed

    Lungu, Claudiu N; Diudea, Mircea V

    2018-01-01

    Lipid II, a peptidoglycan, is a precursor in bacterial cell synthesis. It has both hydrophilic and lipophilic properties. The molecule translocates a bacterial membrane to deliver and incorporate "building blocks" from disaccharide-pentapeptide into the peptidoglican wall. Lipid II is a valid antibiotic target. A receptor binding pocket may be occupied by a ligand in various plausible conformations, among which only few ones are energetically related to a biological activity in the physiological efficiency domain. This paper reports the mapping of the conformational space of Lipid II in its interaction with Teixobactin and other Lipid II ligands. In order to study computationally the complex between Lipid II and ligands, a docking study was first carried on. Docking site was retrieved form literature. After docking, 5 ligand conformations and further 5 complexes (denoted 00 to 04) for each molecule were taken into account. For each structure, conformational studies were performed. Statistical analysis, conformational analysis and molecular dynamics based clustering were used to predict the potency of these compounds. A score for potency prediction was developed. Appling lipid II classification according to Lipid II conformational energy, a conformation of Teixobactin proved to be energetically favorable, followed by Oritravicin, Dalbavycin, Telvanicin, Teicoplamin and Vancomycin, respectively. Scoring of molecules according to cluster band and PCA produced the same result. Molecules classified according to standard deviations showed Dalbavycin as the most favorable conformation, followed by Teicoplamin, Telvanicin, Teixobactin, Oritravicin and Vancomycin, respectively. Total score showing best energetic efficiency of complex formation shows Teixobactin to have the best conformation (a score of 15 points) followed by Dalbavycin (14 points), Oritravicin (12v points), Telvanicin (10 points), Teicoplamin (9 points), Vancomycin (3 points). Statistical analysis of

  8. Accurate pan-specific prediction of peptide-MHC class II binding affinity with improved binding core identification.

    PubMed

    Andreatta, Massimo; Karosiene, Edita; Rasmussen, Michael; Stryhn, Anette; Buus, Søren; Nielsen, Morten

    2015-11-01

    A key event in the generation of a cellular response against malicious organisms through the endocytic pathway is binding of peptidic antigens by major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC class II) molecules. The bound peptide is then presented on the cell surface where it can be recognized by T helper lymphocytes. NetMHCIIpan is a state-of-the-art method for the quantitative prediction of peptide binding to any human or mouse MHC class II molecule of known sequence. In this paper, we describe an updated version of the method with improved peptide binding register identification. Binding register prediction is concerned with determining the minimal core region of nine residues directly in contact with the MHC binding cleft, a crucial piece of information both for the identification and design of CD4(+) T cell antigens. When applied to a set of 51 crystal structures of peptide-MHC complexes with known binding registers, the new method NetMHCIIpan-3.1 significantly outperformed the earlier 3.0 version. We illustrate the impact of accurate binding core identification for the interpretation of T cell cross-reactivity using tetramer double staining with a CMV epitope and its variants mapped to the epitope binding core. NetMHCIIpan is publicly available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHCIIpan-3.1 .

  9. Red-light running violation prediction using observational and simulator data.

    PubMed

    Jahangiri, Arash; Rakha, Hesham; Dingus, Thomas A

    2016-11-01

    In the United States, 683 people were killed and an estimated 133,000 were injured in crashes due to running red lights in 2012. To help prevent/mitigate crashes caused by running red lights, these violations need to be identified before they occur, so both the road users (i.e., drivers, pedestrians, etc.) in potential danger and the infrastructure can be notified and actions can be taken accordingly. Two different data sets were used to assess the feasibility of developing red-light running (RLR) violation prediction models: (1) observational data and (2) driver simulator data. Both data sets included common factors, such as time to intersection (TTI), distance to intersection (DTI), and velocity at the onset of the yellow indication. However, the observational data set provided additional factors that the simulator data set did not, and vice versa. The observational data included vehicle information (e.g., speed, acceleration, etc.) for several different time frames. For each vehicle approaching an intersection in the observational data set, required data were extracted from several time frames as the vehicle drew closer to the intersection. However, since the observational data were inherently anonymous, driver factors such as age and gender were unavailable in the observational data set. Conversely, the simulator data set contained age and gender. In addition, the simulator data included a secondary (non-driving) task factor and a treatment factor (i.e., incoming/outgoing calls while driving). The simulator data only included vehicle information for certain time frames (e.g., yellow onset); the data did not provide vehicle information for several different time frames while vehicles were approaching an intersection. In this study, the random forest (RF) machine-learning technique was adopted to develop RLR violation prediction models. Factor importance was obtained for different models and different data sets to show how differently the factors influence the

  10. Observation of the time-course for peptidoglycan lipid intermediate II polymerization by Staphylococcus aureus monofunctional transglycosylase.

    PubMed

    Braddick, Darren; Sandhu, Sandeep; Roper, David I; Chappell, Michael J; Bugg, Timothy D H

    2014-08-01

    The polymerization of lipid intermediate II by the transglycosylase activity of penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs) represents an important target for antibacterial action, but limited methods are available for quantitative assay of this reaction, or screening potential inhibitors. A new labelling method for lipid II polymerization products using Sanger's reagent (fluoro-2,4-dinitrobenzene), followed by gel permeation HPLC analysis, has permitted the observation of intermediate polymerization products for Staphylococcus aureus monofunctional transglycosylase MGT. Peak formation is inhibited by 6 µM ramoplanin or enduracidin. Characterization by mass spectrometry indicates the formation of tetrasaccharide and octasaccharide intermediates, but not a hexasaccharide intermediate, suggesting a dimerization of a lipid-linked tetrasaccharide. Numerical modelling of the time-course data supports a kinetic model involving addition to lipid-linked tetrasaccharide of either lipid II or lipid-linked tetrasaccharide. Observation of free octasaccharide suggests that hydrolysis of the undecaprenyl diphosphate lipid carrier occurs at this stage in peptidoglycan transglycosylation. © 2014 The Authors.

  11. Nonequilibrium Stagnation-Line Radiative Heating for Fire II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Christopher O.; Hollis, Brian R.; Sutton, Kenneth

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed analysis of the shock-layer radiative heating to the Fire II vehicle using a new air radiation model and a viscous shock-layer flowfield model. This new air radiation model contains the most up-to-date properties for modeling the atomic-line, atomic photoionization, molecular band, and non-Boltzmann processes. The applied viscous shock-layer flowfield analysis contains the same thermophysical properties and nonequilibrium models as the LAURA Navier-Stokes code. Radiation-flowfield coupling, or radiation cooling, is accounted for in detail in this study. It is shown to reduce the radiative heating by about 30% for the peak radiative heating points, while reducing the convective heating only slightly. A detailed review of past Fire II radiative heating studies is presented. It is observed that the scatter in the radiation predicted by these past studies is mostly a result of the different flowfield chemistry models and the treatment of the electronic state populations. The present predictions provide, on average throughout the trajectory, a better comparison with Fire II flight data than any previous study. The magnitude of the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) contribution to the radiative flux is estimated from the calorimeter measurements. This is achieved using the radiometer measurements and the predicted convective heating. The VUV radiation predicted by the present model agrees well with the VUV contribution inferred from the Fire II calorimeter measurement, although only when radiation-flowfield coupling is accounted for. This agreement provides evidence that the present model accurately models the VUV radiation, which is shown to contribute significantly to the Fire II radiative heating.

  12. Identification and Construction of Combinatory Cancer Hallmark-Based Gene Signature Sets to Predict Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit in Stage II Colorectal Cancer.

    PubMed

    Gao, Shanwu; Tibiche, Chabane; Zou, Jinfeng; Zaman, Naif; Trifiro, Mark; O'Connor-McCourt, Maureen; Wang, Edwin

    2016-01-01

    Decisions regarding adjuvant therapy in patients with stage II colorectal cancer (CRC) have been among the most challenging and controversial in oncology over the past 20 years. To develop robust combinatory cancer hallmark-based gene signature sets (CSS sets) that more accurately predict prognosis and identify a subset of patients with stage II CRC who could gain survival benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy. Thirteen retrospective studies of patients with stage II CRC who had clinical follow-up and adjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed. Respective totals of 162 and 843 patients from 2 and 11 independent cohorts were used as the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 1005 patients with stage II CRC were included in the 13 cohorts. Among them, 84 of 416 patients in 3 independent cohorts received fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Identification of CSS sets to predict relapse-free survival and identify a subset of patients with stage II CRC who could gain substantial survival benefits from fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy. Eight cancer hallmark-based gene signatures (30 genes each) were identified and used to construct CSS sets for determining prognosis. The CSS sets were validated in 11 independent cohorts of 767 patients with stage II CRC who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. The CSS sets accurately stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Five-year relapse-free survival rates were 94%, 78%, and 45%, respectively, representing 60%, 28%, and 12% of patients with stage II disease. The 416 patients with CSS set-defined high-risk stage II CRC who received fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy showed a substantial gain in survival benefits from the treatment (ie, recurrence reduced by 30%-40% in 5 years). The CSS sets substantially outperformed other prognostic predictors of stage 2 CRC. They are more accurate and robust for prognostic predictions and facilitate the identification of patients with stage

  13. CONSTRAINING THE SOLAR CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH USING SPLIT-BAND TYPE II RADIO BURST OBSERVATIONS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kishore, P.; Ramesh, R.; Hariharan, K.

    2016-11-20

    We report on low-frequency radio (85–35 MHz) spectral observations of four different type II radio bursts, which exhibited fundamental-harmonic emission and split-band structure. Each of the bursts was found to be closely associated with a whitelight coronal mass ejection (CME) close to the Sun. We estimated the coronal magnetic field strength from the split-band characteristics of the bursts, by assuming a model for the coronal electron density distribution. The choice of the model was constrained, based on the following criteria: (1) when the radio burst is observed simultaneously in the upper and lower bands of the fundamental component, the locationmore » of the plasma level corresponding to the frequency of the burst in the lower band should be consistent with the deprojected location of the leading edge (LE) of the associated CME; (2) the drift speed of the type II bursts derived from such a model should agree closely with the deprojected speed of the LE of the corresponding CMEs. With the above conditions, we find that: (1) the estimated field strengths are unique to each type II burst, and (2) the radial variation of the field strength in the different events indicate a pattern. It is steepest for the case where the heliocentric distance range over which the associated burst is observed is closest to the Sun, and vice versa.« less

  14. FutureTox II: In vitro Data and In Silico Models for Predictive Toxicology

    PubMed Central

    Knudsen, Thomas B.; Keller, Douglas A.; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W.; Doerrer, Nancy G.; Eaton, David L.; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L.; Mendrick, Donna L.; Tice, Raymond R.; Watkins, Paul B.; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. PMID:25628403

  15. Observational breakthroughs lead the way to improved hydrological predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2017-04-01

    New data sources are revolutionizing the hydrological sciences. The capabilities of hydrological models have advanced greatly over the last several decades, but until recently model capabilities have outstripped the spatial resolution and accuracy of model forcings (atmospheric variables at the land surface) and the hydrologic state variables (e.g., soil moisture; snow water equivalent) that the models predict. This has begun to change, as shown in two examples here: soil moisture and drought evolution over Africa as predicted by a hydrology model forced with satellite-derived precipitation, and observations of snow water equivalent at very high resolution over a river basin in California's Sierra Nevada.

  16. Predictability of action sub-steps modulates motor system activation during the observation of goal-directed actions.

    PubMed

    Braukmann, Ricarda; Bekkering, Harold; Hidding, Margreeth; Poljac, Edita; Buitelaar, Jan K; Hunnius, Sabine

    2017-08-01

    Action perception and execution are linked in the human motor system, and researchers have proposed that this action-observation matching system underlies our ability to predict observed behavior. If the motor system is indeed involved in the generation of action predictions, activation should be modulated by the degree of predictability of an observed action. This study used EEG and eye-tracking to investigate whether and how predictability of an observed action modulates motor system activation as well as behavioral predictions in the form of anticipatory eye-movements. Participants were presented with object-directed actions (e.g., making a cup of tea) consisting of three action steps which increased in their predictability. While the goal of the first step was ambiguous (e.g., when making tea, one can first grab the teabag or the cup), the goals of the following steps became predictable over the course of the action. Motor system activation was assessed by measuring attenuation of sensorimotor mu- and beta-oscillations. We found that mu- and beta-power were attenuated during observation, indicating general activation of the motor system. Importantly, predictive motor system activation, indexed by beta-band attenuation, increased for each action step, showing strongest activation prior to the final (i.e. most predictable) step. Sensorimotor activity was related to participants' predictive eye-movements which also showed a modulation by action step. Our results demonstrate that motor system activity and behavioral predictions become stronger for more predictable action steps. The functional roles of sensorimotor oscillations in predicting other's actions are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Observations directly linking chorus to relativistic microbursts: Van Allen Probes and FIREBIRD II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breneman, A. W.; Crew, A. B.; Agapitov, O. V.; Johnson, A.; Klumpar, D. M.; Shumko, M.; Turner, D. L.; Santolik, O.; Wygant, J. R.; Cattell, C. A.; Thaller, S. A.; Blake, J. B.; Spence, H. E.; Kletzing, C.

    2017-12-01

    We present observations that definitively establish that discrete whistler mode chorus packets cause relativistic electron microbursts. On Jan 20th, 2016 near 1944 UT the low Earth orbiting CubeSat FIREBIRD II observed energetic microbursts from its lower limit of 220 keV, to 1 MeV. In the outer radiation belt and magnetically conjugate, Van Allen Probe A observed rising-tone, lower band chorus waves with durations and cadences similar to the microbursts. No other waves were observed. A majority of the microbursts do not have the energy dispersion expected for trapped electrons bouncing between mirror points. This confirms that the electrons are rapidly (nonlinearly) scattered into the loss cone by a single coherent interaction with the large amplitude (up to 900 pT) chorus.

  18. Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

    PubMed

    Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

    2014-12-01

    A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous

  19. Understanding Electrochemistry Concepts Using the Predict-Observe-Explain Strategy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karamustafaoglu, Sevilay; Mamlok-Naaman, Rachel

    2015-01-01

    The current study deals with freshman students who study at the Department of Science at the Faculty of Education. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of teaching electrochemistry concepts using Predict-Observe-Explain (POE) strategy. The study was quasi-experimental design using 20 students each in the experimental group (EG) and…

  20. Model Predictive Flight Control System with Full State Observer using H∞ Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanwale, Jitu; Singh, Dhan Jeet

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the application of the model predictive approach to design a flight control system (FCS) for longitudinal dynamics of a fixed wing aircraft. Longitudinal dynamics is derived for a conventional aircraft. Open loop aircraft response analysis is carried out. Simulation studies are illustrated to prove the efficacy of the proposed model predictive controller using H ∞ state observer. The estimation criterion used in the {H}_{∞} observer design is to minimize the worst possible effects of the modelling errors and additive noise on the parameter estimation.

  1. Predicting K0Λ photoproduction observables by using the multipole approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mart, T.; Rusli, A.

    2017-12-01

    We present an isobar model for kaon photoproduction on the proton γ p\\to K^+Λ that can nicely reproduce the available experimental data from threshold up to W=2.0 GeV. The background amplitude of the model is constructed from a covariant Feynman diagrammatic method, whereas the resonance one is formulated by using the multipole approach. All unknown parameters in both background and resonance amplitudes are extracted by adjusting the calculated observables to experimental data. With the help of SU(3) isospin symmetry and some information obtained from the Particle Data Group we estimate the cross section and polarization observables for the neutral kaon photoproduction on the neutron γ n\\to K^0Λ. The result indicates no sharp peak in the K^0Λ total cross section. The predicted differential cross section exhibits resonance structures only at cosθ=-1. To obtain sizable observables the present work recommends measurement of the K^0Λ cross section with W≳ 1.70 GeV, whereas for the recoiled Λ polarization measurement with W≈ 1.65-1.90 GeV would be advised, since the predictions of existing models show a large variance at this kinematics. The predicted electric and magnetic multipoles are found to be mostly different from those obtained in previous works. For W=1.75 and 1.95 GeV it is found that most of the single and double polarization observables demonstrate large asymmetries.

  2. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards

    PubMed Central

    Speed, Brittany C.; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N.; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents’ electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents’ observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents’ responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. ‘Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents’ response to their parents’ losses’. These findings suggest that parents’ rapid neural responses to their child’s successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. PMID:27613780

  3. Studying the highly bent spectra of FR II-type radio galaxies with the KDA EXT model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuligowska, Elżbieta

    2018-04-01

    Context. The Kaiser, Dennett-Thorpe & Alexander (KDA, 1997, MNRAS, 292, 723) EXT model, that is, the extension of the KDA model of Fanaroff & Riley (FR) II-type source evolution, is applied and confronted with the observational data for selected FR II-type radio sources with significantly aged radio spectra. Aim. A sample of FR II-type radio galaxies with radio spectra strongly bent at their highest frequencies is used for testing the usefulness of the KDA EXT model. Methods: The dynamical evolution of FR II-type sources predicted with the KDA EXT model is briefly presented and discussed. The results are then compared to the ones obtained with the classical KDA approach, assuming the source's continuous injection and self-similarity. Results: The results and corresponding diagrams obtained for the eight sample sources indicate that the KDA EXT model predicts the observed radio spectra significantly better than the best spectral fit provided by the original KDA model.

  4. Forbush Decrease Prediction Based on Remote Solar Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumbovic, Mateja; Vrsnak, Bojan; Calogovic, Jasa

    2016-04-01

    We study the relation between remote observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), their associated solar flares and short-term depressions in the galactic cosmic-ray flux (so called Forbush decreases). Statistical relations between Forbush decrease magnitude and several CME/flare parameters are examined. In general we find that Forbush decrease magnitude is larger for faster CMEs with larger apparent width, which is associated with stronger flares that originate close to the center of the solar disk and are (possibly) involved in a CME-CME interaction. The statistical relations are quantified and employed to forecast expected Forbush decrease magnitude range based on the selected remote solar observations of the CME and associated solar flare. Several verification measures are used to evaluate the forecast method. We find that the forecast is most reliable in predicting whether or not a CME will produce a Forbush decrease with a magnitude >3 %. The main advantage of the method is that it provides an early prediction, 1-4 days in advance. Based on the presented research, an online forecast tool was developed (Forbush Decrease Forecast Tool, FDFT) available at Hvar Observatory web page: http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/FDFT/fdft.php. We acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation under the project 6212 "Solar and Stellar Variability" and of European social fond under the project "PoKRet".

  5. Predictive validity of the Hendrich fall risk model II in an acute geriatric unit.

    PubMed

    Ivziku, Dhurata; Matarese, Maria; Pedone, Claudio

    2011-04-01

    Falls are the most common adverse events reported in acute care hospitals, and older patients are the most likely to fall. The risk of falling cannot be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced through the implementation of a fall prevention program. A major evidence-based intervention to prevent falls has been the use of fall-risk assessment tools. Many tools have been increasingly developed in recent years, but most instruments have not been investigated regarding reliability, validity and clinical usefulness. This study intends to evaluate the predictive validity and inter-rater reliability of Hendrich fall risk model II (HFRM II) in order to identify older patients at risk of falling in geriatric units and recommend its use in clinical practice. A prospective descriptive design was used. The study was carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital. All over 65 years old patients consecutively admitted to a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital over 8-month period were enrolled. The patients enrolled were screened for the falls risk by nurses with the HFRM II within 24h of admission. The falls occurring during the patient's hospital stay were registered. Inter-rater reliability, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and time for the administration were evaluated. 179 elderly patients were included. The inter-rater reliability was 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-1.00). The administration time was about 1min. The most frequently reported risk factors were depression, incontinence, vertigo. Sensitivity and specificity were respectively 86% and 43%. The optimal cut-off score for screening at risk patients was 5 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72. The risk factors more strongly associated with falls were confusion and depression. As falls of older patients are a common problem in acute care settings it is necessary that the nurses use specific validate and reliable

  6. Observational Assessment of Preschool Disruptive Behavior, Part II: validity of the Disruptive Behavior Diagnostic Observation Schedule (DB-DOS).

    PubMed

    Wakschlag, Lauren S; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J; Hill, Carri; Danis, Barbara; Leventhal, Bennett L; Keenan, Kate; Egger, Helen L; Cicchetti, Domenic; Burns, James; Carter, Alice S

    2008-06-01

    To examine the validity of the Disruptive Behavior Diagnostic Observation Schedule (DB-DOS), a new observational method for assessing preschool disruptive behavior. A total of 327 behaviorally heterogeneous preschoolers from low-income environments comprised the validation sample. Parent and teacher reports were used to identify children with clinically significant disruptive behavior. The DB-DOS assessed observed disruptive behavior in two domains, problems in Behavioral Regulation and Anger Modulation, across three interactional contexts: Examiner Engaged, Examiner Busy, and Parent. Convergent and divergent validity of the DB-DOS were tested in relation to parent and teacher reports and independently observed behavior. Clinical validity was tested in terms of criterion and incremental validity of the DB-DOS for discriminating disruptive behavior status and impairment, concurrently and longitudinally. DB-DOS scores were significantly associated with reported and independently observed behavior in a theoretically meaningful fashion. Scores from both DB-DOS domains and each of the three DB-DOS contexts contributed uniquely to discrimination of disruptive behavior status, concurrently and predictively. Observed behavior on the DB-DOS also contributed incrementally to prediction of impairment over time, beyond variance explained by meeting DSM-IV disruptive behavior disorder symptom criteria based on parent/teacher report. The multidomain, multicontext approach of the DB-DOS is a valid method for direct assessment of preschool disruptive behavior. This approach shows promise for enhancing accurate identification of clinically significant disruptive behavior in young children and for characterizing subtypes in a manner that can directly inform etiological and intervention research.

  7. A Comparison of HALOE V19 with SAGE II V6.00 Ozone Observations using Trajectory Mapping

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Gary A.; Gleason, James F.; Russell, James R., III; Schoeberl, Mark R.; McCormick, M. Patrick; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We apply trajectory mapping to an eight-year intercomparison of ozone observations from HALOE (V19) and SAGE II (V6.00) for the months March, May, June, September, October, and December from the period December 1991 - October 1999. Our results, which represent the most extensive such intercomparison of these two data sets to date, suggest a root-mean -square difference between the two data sets of greater than 15% below 22 km and of 4 - 12% throughout most of the rest of the stratosphere. In addition, we find a bias with HALOE ozone low relative to SAGE II by 5 - 20% below 22 km between 40degS and 40degN. Biases throughout most of the rest of the stratosphere are nearly nonexistent. Finally, our analysis suggests almost no drift in the bias between the data sets is observed over the period of study. In the course of our study, we also determine that the employment of the Wang-Cunnold criteria is still recommended with the V6.00 SAGE II ozone data. Results with the new versions of the data sets show significant improvement over previous versions, particularly in the elimination of mid-stratospheric biases and the elimination of the previously observed drifts in the biases between the data sets in the lower stratosphere. Since HALOE V19 and V18 ozone are very similar, these changes can likely be attributed to improvements in the SAGE II retrieval.

  8. Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging of Physiological Free Cu(II) Levels in Live Cells with a Cu(II)-Selective Carbonic Anhydrase-Based Biosensor

    PubMed Central

    McCranor, Bryan J.; Szmacinski, Henryk; Zeng, Hui Hui; Stoddard, A.K.; Hurst, Tamiika; Fierke, Carol A.; Lakowicz, J.R.

    2014-01-01

    Copper is a required trace element that plays key roles in a number of human enzymes, such that copper deficiency or genetic defects in copper transport lead to serious or fatal disease. Rae, et al., had famously predicted that free copper ion levels in the cell cytoplasm were extremely low, typically too low to be observable. We recently developed a variant of human apocarbonic anhydrase II for sensing metal ions that exhibits 25-fold better selectivity for Cu(II) over Zn(II) than the wild type protein, enabling us to accurately measure Cu(II) in the presence of ordinary cellular (picomolar) concentrations of free zinc. We inserted a fluorescent labeled Cu(II)-specific variant of human apocarbonic anhydrase into PC-12 cells and found that the levels are indeed extremely low (in the femtomolar range). We imaged the free Cu(II) levels in living cells by means of frequency-domain fluorescence lifetime microscopy. Implications of this finding are discussed. PMID:24671220

  9. Young children with autism spectrum disorder use predictive eye movements in action observation.

    PubMed

    Falck-Ytter, Terje

    2010-06-23

    Does a dysfunction in the mirror neuron system (MNS) underlie the social symptoms defining autism spectrum disorder (ASD)? Research suggests that the MNS matches observed actions to motor plans for similar actions, and that these motor plans include directions for predictive eye movements when observing goal-directed actions. Thus, one important question is whether children with ASD use predictive eye movements in action observation. Young children with ASD as well as typically developing children and adults were shown videos in which an actor performed object-directed actions (human agent condition). Children with ASD were also shown control videos showing objects moving by themselves (self-propelled condition). Gaze was measured using a corneal reflection technique. Children with ASD and typically developing individuals used strikingly similar goal-directed eye movements when observing others' actions in the human agent condition. Gaze was reactive in the self-propelled condition, suggesting that prediction is linked to seeing a hand-object interaction. This study does not support the view that ASD is characterized by a global dysfunction in the MNS.

  10. Shark class II invariant chain reveals ancient conserved relationships with cathepsins and MHC class II.

    PubMed

    Criscitiello, Michael F; Ohta, Yuko; Graham, Matthew D; Eubanks, Jeannine O; Chen, Patricia L; Flajnik, Martin F

    2012-03-01

    The invariant chain (Ii) is the critical third chain required for the MHC class II heterodimer to be properly guided through the cell, loaded with peptide, and expressed on the surface of antigen presenting cells. Here, we report the isolation of the nurse shark Ii gene, and the comparative analysis of Ii splice variants, expression, genomic organization, predicted structure, and function throughout vertebrate evolution. Alternative splicing to yield Ii with and without the putative protease-protective, thyroglobulin-like domain is as ancient as the MHC-based adaptive immune system, as our analyses in shark and lizard further show conservation of this mechanism in all vertebrate classes except bony fish. Remarkable coordinate expression of Ii and class II was found in shark tissues. Conserved Ii residues and cathepsin L orthologs suggest their long co-evolution in the antigen presentation pathway, and genomic analyses suggest 450 million years of conserved Ii exon/intron structure. Other than an extended linker preceding the thyroglobulin-like domain in cartilaginous fish, the Ii gene and protein are predicted to have largely similar physiology from shark to man. Duplicated Ii genes found only in teleosts appear to have become sub-functionalized, as one form is predicted to play the same role as that mediated by Ii mRNA alternative splicing in all other vertebrate classes. No Ii homologs or potential ancestors of any of the functional Ii domains were found in the jawless fish or lower chordates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Designing of interferon-gamma inducing MHC class-II binders

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The generation of interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) by MHC class II activated CD4+ T helper cells play a substantial contribution in the control of infections such as caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In the past, numerous methods have been developed for predicting MHC class II binders that can activate T-helper cells. Best of author’s knowledge, no method has been developed so far that can predict the type of cytokine will be secreted by these MHC Class II binders or T-helper epitopes. In this study, an attempt has been made to predict the IFN-γ inducing peptides. The main dataset used in this study contains 3705 IFN-γ inducing and 6728 non-IFN-γ inducing MHC class II binders. Another dataset called IFNgOnly contains 4483 IFN-γ inducing epitopes and 2160 epitopes that induce other cytokine except IFN-γ. In addition we have alternate dataset that contains IFN-γ inducing and equal number of random peptides. Results It was observed that the peptide length, positional conservation of residues and amino acid composition affects IFN-γ inducing capabilities of these peptides. We identified the motifs in IFN-γ inducing binders/peptides using MERCI software. Our analysis indicates that IFN-γ inducing and non-inducing peptides can be discriminated using above features. We developed models for predicting IFN-γ inducing peptides using various approaches like machine learning technique, motifs-based search, and hybrid approach. Our best model based on the hybrid approach achieved maximum prediction accuracy of 82.10% with MCC of 0.62 on main dataset. We also developed hybrid model on IFNgOnly dataset and achieved maximum accuracy of 81.39% with 0.57 MCC. Conclusion Based on this study, we have developed a webserver for predicting i) IFN-γ inducing peptides, ii) virtual screening of peptide libraries and iii) identification of IFN-γ inducing regions in antigen (http://crdd.osdd.net/raghava/ifnepitope/). Reviewers This article was reviewed by Prof Kurt

  12. Validation and Inter-comparison Against Observations of GODAE Ocean View Ocean Prediction Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, J.; Davidson, F. J. M.; Smith, G. C.; Lu, Y.; Hernandez, F.; Regnier, C.; Drevillon, M.; Ryan, A.; Martin, M.; Spindler, T. D.; Brassington, G. B.; Oke, P. R.

    2016-02-01

    For weather forecasts, validation of forecast performance is done at the end user level as well as by the meteorological forecast centers. In the development of Ocean Prediction Capacity, the same level of care for ocean forecast performance and validation is needed. Herein we present results from a validation against observations of 6 Global Ocean Forecast Systems under the GODAE OceanView International Collaboration Network. These systems include the Global Ocean Ice Forecast System (GIOPS) developed by the Government of Canada, two systems PSY3 and PSY4 from the French Mercator-Ocean Ocean Forecasting Group, the FOAM system from UK met office, HYCOM-RTOFS from NOAA/NCEP/NWA of USA, and the Australian Bluelink-OceanMAPS system from the CSIRO, the Australian Meteorological Bureau and the Australian Navy.The observation data used in the comparison are sea surface temperature, sub-surface temperature, sub-surface salinity, sea level anomaly, and sea ice total concentration data. Results of the inter-comparison demonstrate forecast performance limits, strengths and weaknesses of each of the six systems. This work establishes validation protocols and routines by which all new prediction systems developed under the CONCEPTS Collaborative Network will be benchmarked prior to approval for operations. This includes anticipated delivery of CONCEPTS regional prediction systems over the next two years including a pan Canadian 1/12th degree resolution ice ocean prediction system and limited area 1/36th degree resolution prediction systems. The validation approach of comparing forecasts to observations at the time and location of the observation is called Class 4 metrics. It has been adopted by major international ocean prediction centers, and will be recommended to JCOMM-WMO as routine validation approach for operational oceanography worldwide.

  13. Prediction using patient comparison vs. modeling: a case study for mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Hoogendoorn, Mark; El Hassouni, Ali; Mok, Kwongyen; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Szolovits, Peter

    2016-08-01

    Information in Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) can be used to generate accurate predictions for the occurrence of a variety of health states, which can contribute to more pro-active interventions. The very nature of EMRs does make the application of off-the-shelf machine learning techniques difficult. In this paper, we study two approaches to making predictions that have hardly been compared in the past: (1) extracting high-level (temporal) features from EMRs and building a predictive model, and (2) defining a patient similarity metric and predicting based on the outcome observed for similar patients. We analyze and compare both approaches on the MIMIC-II ICU dataset to predict patient mortality and find that the patient similarity approach does not scale well and results in a less accurate model (AUC of 0.68) compared to the modeling approach (0.84). We also show that mortality can be predicted within a median of 72 hours.

  14. Geochemical challenge to earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Wakita, H

    1996-01-01

    The current status of geochemical and groundwater observations for earthquake prediction in Japan is described. The development of the observations is discussed in relation to the progress of the earthquake prediction program in Japan. Three major findings obtained from our recent studies are outlined. (i) Long-term radon observation data over 18 years at the SKE (Suikoen) well indicate that the anomalous radon change before the 1978 Izu-Oshima-kinkai earthquake can with high probability be attributed to precursory changes. (ii) It is proposed that certain sensitive wells exist which have the potential to detect precursory changes. (iii) The appearance and nonappearance of coseismic radon drops at the KSM (Kashima) well reflect changes in the regional stress state of an observation area. In addition, some preliminary results of chemical changes of groundwater prior to the 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken nanbu) earthquake are presented. PMID:11607665

  15. 1969 to 2010: Multicolor Photometric Observations of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philip, A. G. D.

    2011-04-01

    From 1969 to 2010 I have been involved in a photometric study of Population II Field Horizontal-Branch Stars and published several papers on this topic in BOTT from 1967 thru 1972. I started by making Strömgren four-color observations at Kitt Peak National Observatory and then at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory. I had taken spectral plates of all my selected areas on which I marked all the A-type stars. These stars were then observed photometrically. New FHB stars could be identified by their large c indices, caused by their greater (u-b) colors. Later four new filters were added (U, V, B, S). With Richard Boyle of the Vatican Observatory we observed on Mt. Graham (Arizona) on the Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope. We are making follow-up observations of the new FHB stars found.

  16. Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Interplanetary Shock Predictions During Solar Cycle 23

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, C. D.; Dryer, M.; Sun, W.; Deehr, C. S.; Smith, Z.; Akasofu, S.

    2002-05-01

    We report on our progress in predicting interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) in real-time, using three forecast models: the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) modified kinematic model, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM) and the Shock Time of Arrival (STOA) model. These models are run concurrently to provide real-time predictions of the arrival time at Earth of interplanetary shocks caused by solar events. These "fearless forecasts" are the first, and presently only, publicly distributed predictions of SAT and are undergoing quantitative evaluation for operational utility and scientific benchmarking. All three models predict SAT, but the HAF model also provides a global view of the propagation of interplanetary shocks through the pre-existing, non-uniform heliospheric structure. This allows the forecaster to track the propagation of the shock and to differentiate between shocks caused by solar events and those associated with co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). This study includes 173 events during the period February, 1997 to October, 2000. Shock predictions were compared with spacecraft observations at the L1 location to determine how well the models perform. Sixty-eight shocks were observed at L1 within 120 hours of an event. We concluded that 6 of these observed shocks were caused by CIRs, and the remainder were caused by solar events. The forecast skill of the models are presented in terms of RMS errors, contingency tables and skill scores commonly used by the weather forecasting community. The false alarm rate for HAF was higher than for ISPM or STOA but much lower than for predictions based upon empirical studies or climatology. Of the parameters used to characterize a shock source at the Sun, the initial speed of the coronal shock, as represented by the observed metric type II speed, has the largest influence on the predicted SAT. We also found that HAF model predictions based upon type II speed are generally better for shocks originating from

  17. High resolution far-infrared observations of the evolved H II region M16

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McBreen, B.; Fazio, G.G.; Jaffe, D.T.

    1982-03-01

    M16 is an evolved, extremely density bounded H II region, which now consists only of a series of ionization fronts at molecular cloud boundaries. The source of ionization is the OB star cluster (NGC 6611) which is about 5 x 10/sup 6/ years old. We used the CFA/UA 102 cm balloon-borne telescope to map this region and detected three far-infrared (far-IR) sources embedded in an extended ridge of emission. Source I is an unresolved far-IR source embedded in a molecular cloud near a sharp ionization front. An H/sub 2/O maser is associated with this source, but no radio continuum emissionmore » has been observed. The other two far-IR sources (II and III) are associated with ionized gas-molecular cloud interfaces, with the far-IR radiation arising from dust at the boundary heated by the OB cluster. Source II is located at the southern prominent neutral intrusion with its associated bright rims and dark ''elephant trunk'' globules that delineate the current progress of the ionization front into the neutral material, and Source III arises at the interface of the northern molecular cloud fragment.« less

  18. Authoritarian parenting predicts reduced electrocortical response to observed adolescent offspring rewards.

    PubMed

    Levinson, Amanda R; Speed, Brittany C; Nelson, Brady; Bress, Jennifer N; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-03-01

    Parenting styles are robust predictors of offspring outcomes, yet little is known about their neural underpinnings. In this study, 44 parent-adolescent dyads (Mage of adolescent = 12.9) completed a laboratory guessing task while EEG was continuously recorded. In the task, each pair member received feedback about their own monetary wins and losses and also observed the monetary wins and losses of the other member of the pair. We examined the association between self-reported parenting style and parents' electrophysiological responses to watching their adolescent winning and losing money, dubbed the observational Reward Positivity (RewP) and observational feedback negativity (FN), respectively. Self-reported authoritarian parenting predicted reductions in parents' observational RewP but not FN. This predictive relationship remained after adjusting for sex of both participants, parents' responsiveness to their own wins, and parental psychopathology. 'Exploratory analyses found that permissive parenting was associated with a blunting of the adolescents' response to their parents' losses'. These findings suggest that parents' rapid neural responses to their child's successes may relate to the harsh parenting behaviors associated with authoritarian parenting. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Evaluation of various dissolution media for predicting in vivo performance of class I and II drugs.

    PubMed

    Galia, E; Nicolaides, E; Hörter, D; Löbenberg, R; Reppas, C; Dressman, J B

    1998-05-01

    , 70% dissolution in 2 hours under fed state simulated upper jejunal conditions but only 6% dissolution in 2 hours under fasted state conditions. As predicted, dissolution of class II drugs proved to be in general much more dependent on the medium than class I drugs. With the array of compendial and physiological media available, it should be possible to design a suitable set of tests to predict the in vivo dissolution of both class I and II drugs from immediate release formulations.

  20. Coupled carbon-water exchange of the Amazon rain forest, II. Comparison of predicted and observed seasonal exchange of energy, CO2, isoprene and ozone at a remote site in Rondônia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simon, E.; Meixner, F. X.; Rummel, U.; Ganzeveld, L.; Ammann, C.; Kesselmeier, J.

    2005-04-01

    A one-dimensional multi-layer scheme describing the coupled exchange of energy and CO2, the emission of isoprene and the dry deposition of ozone is applied to a rain forest canopy in southwest Amazonia. The model was constrained using mean diel cycles of micrometeorological quantities observed during two periods in the wet and dry season 1999. Predicted net fluxes and concentration profiles for both seasonal periods are compared to observations made at two nearby towers.

    The predicted day- and nighttime thermal stratification of the canopy layer is consistent with observations in dense canopies. The observed and calculated net fluxes above and H2O and CO2 concentration profiles within the canopy show a good agreement. The predicted net carbon sink decreases from 2.5 t C ha-1yr-1 for wet season conditions to 1 t C ha-1yr-1 for dry season conditions, whereas observed and predicted midday Bowen ratio increases from 0.5 to 0.8. The evaluation results confirmed a seasonal variability of leaf physiological parameters, as already suggested in the companion study. The predicted midday canopy net flux of isoprene increased from 7.1 mg C m-2h-1 during the wet season to 11.4 mg C m-2h-1 during the late dry season. Applying a constant emission capacity in all canopy layers, resulted in a disagreement between observed and simulated profiles of isoprene concentrations, suggesting a smaller emission capacity of shade adapted leaves and deposition to the soil or leaf surfaces. Assuming a strong light acclimation of emission capacity, equivalent to a 66% reduction of the standard emission factor for leaves in the lower canopy, resulted in a better agreement of observed and calculated concentration profiles and a 30% reduction of the canopy net flux. The mean calculated ozone flux for dry season condition at noontime was ≍12 nmol m-2s-1, agreeing well with observed values. The corresponding deposition velocity increased from 0.8 cm s-1 to >1.6 cm s-1

  1. Origin of diffuse C II 158 micron and Si II 35 micron emission in the Carina nebula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizutani, M.; Onaka, T.; Shibai, H.

    2004-08-01

    We present the results of mapping observations with ISO of [O I] 63 μm, 145 μm, [N II] 122 μm, [C II] 158 μm, [Si II] 35 μm, and H_2 9.66 μm line emissions for the Carina nebula, an active star-forming region in the Galactic plane. The observations were made for the central 40 arcmin × 20 arcmin area of the nebula, including the optically bright H II region and molecular cloud lying in front of the ionized gas. Around the center of the observed area is the interface between the H II region and the molecular cloud which creates a typical photodissociation region (PDR). The [C II] 158 μm emission shows a good correlation with the [O I] 63 μm emission and peaks around the H II-molecular region interface. The correlated component has the ratio of [C II] 158 μm to [O I] 63 μm of about 2.8. We estimate from the correlation that about 80% of [C II] emission comes from the PDR in the Carina nebula. The photoelectric heating efficiency estimated from the ratio of the ([C II] 158 μm + [O I] 63 μm) intensity to the total far-infrared intensity ranges from 0.06 to 1.2%. [O I] 145 μm is detected marginally at 10 positions. The average ratio of [O I] 145 μm to [O I] 63 μm of these positions is about 0.09 ± 0.01 and is larger than model predictions. The observed [C II] 158 μm to [O I] 63 μm ratio indicates a relatively low temperature ( <500 K) of the gas, while the large [O I] 145 μm to 63 μm ratio suggests a high temperature (˜ 1000 K). This discrepancy cannot be accounted for consistently by the latest PDR model with the efficient photoelectric heating via polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) even if absorption of [O I] 63 μm by foreground cold gas is taken into account. We suggest that absorption of [C II] 158 μm together with [O I] 63 μm by overlapping PDRs, in which the heating via PAHs is suppressed due to the charge-up effect, may resolve the discrepancy. Quite strong [Si II] 35 μm emission has been detected over the observed area. It shows a

  2. Observations of an Intermediate Layer During the Coqui II Campaign

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bishop, R. L.; Earle, G. D.; Herrero, F. A.; Bateman, T. T.

    2000-01-01

    NASA sounding rocket 21.114, launched March 7, 1998, during the Coqui II campaign, provided neutral wind and plasma density measurements of a weak intermediate layer. The layer was centered near 140 km and had an approximate peak plasma density of 2200 cc. The measured winds were typically less than 40 m/s, in agreement with wind shear formation theory and coincident density observations. The data obtained during the flight allow us to explore the plasma density structure and wind field morphology of the intermediate layer. Coupled with simultaneous data from Arecibo Observatory, the upleg and downleg density profiles provide three spatially separated measurements that enable the first detailed investigation of the horizontal extent and variation of an intermediate layer.

  3. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction

    PubMed Central

    Dunstone, Nick J.

    2014-01-01

    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  4. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction.

    PubMed

    Dunstone, Nick J

    2014-09-28

    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  5. A New Test of Copper and Zinc Abundances in Late-Type Stars Using Cu II and Zn II lines in the Near-Ultraviolet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roederer, Ian

    2017-08-01

    The copper (Cu, Z = 29) and zinc (Zn, Z = 30) abundances found in late-type stars provide critical constraints on models that predict the yields of massive star supernovae, hypernovae, Type Ia supernovae, and AGB stars, which are essential ingredients in Galactic chemical evolution models. Furthermore, Zn is commonly used to compare the abundance of iron-group elements in the gas phase in high-redshift DLA systems with metallicities in Local Group stars. It is thus important that the observational Cu and Zn abundances in stars are correct. My proposed archive study will address this issue by using archive STIS spectra of 14 stars to provide the first systematic observational tests of non-LTE calculations of Cu and Zn line formation in late-type stars. The non-LTE calculations predict that all LTE [Cu/Fe] abundance ratios presently found in the literature are systematically lower than the true ratios found in stars. The non-LTE calculations for Zn predict that the LTE values in the literature may be systematically overestimated in low-metallicity stars. The LTE abundances of Cu and Zn are derived from Cu I and Zn I lines. The key advance enabled by the use of NUV spectra is the detection of several lines of Cu II and Zn II, which cannot be detected in the optical or infrared. Cu II and Zn II are largely immune to non-LTE effects in the atmospheres of late-type stars. The metallicities of the 14 stars with NUV spectra span -2.6 < [Fe/H] < -0.1, which covers the range of most Cu and Zn abundances reported in the literature. The proposed study will allow me to test the non-LTE calculations and calibrate the stellar abundances.

  6. 18F-Alfatide II and 18F-FDG Dual Tracer Dynamic PET for Parametric, Early Prediction of Tumor Response to Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Jinxia; Guo, Ning; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O.; Xie, Qingguo; Li, Quanzheng; Eden, Henry S.; Niu, Gang; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2014-01-01

    analysis in tumors showed significant decreases. For Abraxane therapy of MDA-MB-435 tumors, significant decrease was only observed with 18F-Alfatide II Bp value from kinetic analysis but not 18F-FDG influx. Conclusion The parameters fitted with compartmental modeling from the dual tracer dynamic imaging are consistent with those from single tracer imaging, substantiating the feasibility of this methodology. Even though no significant differences in tumor size were found until 5 days after doxorubicin treatment started, at day 3 there were already substantial differences in 18F-Alfatide II Bp and 18F-FDG influx rate. Dual tracer imaging can measure 18F-Alfatide II Bp value and 18F-FDG influx simultaneously to evaluate tumor angiogenesis and metabolism. Such changes are known to precede anatomical changes, and thus parametric imaging may offer the promise of early prediction of therapy response. PMID:24232871

  7. (18)F-alfatide II and (18)F-FDG dual-tracer dynamic PET for parametric, early prediction of tumor response to therapy.

    PubMed

    Guo, Jinxia; Guo, Ning; Lang, Lixin; Kiesewetter, Dale O; Xie, Qingguo; Li, Quanzheng; Eden, Henry S; Niu, Gang; Chen, Xiaoyuan

    2014-01-01

    or (18)F-FDG were observed, both (18)F-alfatide II Bp and (18)F-FDG influx from kinetic analysis in tumors showed significant decreases. For therapy of MDA-MB-435 tumors with paclitaxel protein-bound particles, a significant decrease was observed only with (18)F-alfatide II Bp value from kinetic analysis but not (18)F-FDG influx. The parameters fitted with compartmental modeling from the dual-tracer dynamic imaging are consistent with those from single-tracer imaging, substantiating the feasibility of this methodology. Even though no significant differences in tumor size were found until 5 d after doxorubicin treatment started, at day 3 there were already substantial differences in (18)F-alfatide II Bp and (18)F-FDG influx rate. Dual-tracer imaging can measure (18)F-alfatide II Bp value and (18)F-FDG influx simultaneously to evaluate tumor angiogenesis and metabolism. Such changes are known to precede anatomic changes, and thus parametric imaging may offer the promise of early prediction of therapy response.

  8. HERSCHEL EXTREME LENSING LINE OBSERVATIONS: [C ii] VARIATIONS IN GALAXIES AT REDSHIFTS z = 1–3

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James E.; Yang, Huan

    We observed the [C ii] line in 15 lensed galaxies at redshifts 1 < z < 3 using HIFI on the Herschel Space Observatory and detected 14/15 galaxies at 3 σ or better. High magnifications enable even modestly luminous galaxies to be detected in [C ii] with Herschel . The [C ii] luminosity in this sample ranges from 8 × 10{sup 7} L {sub ⊙} to 3.7 × 10{sup 9} L {sub ⊙} (after correcting for magnification), confirming that [C ii] is a strong tracer of the ISM at high redshifts. The ratio of the [C ii] line to themore » total far-infrared (FIR) luminosity serves as a measure of the ratio of gas to dust cooling and thus the efficiency of the grain photoelectric heating process. It varies between 3.3% and 0.09%. We compare the [C ii]/FIR ratio to that of galaxies at z = 0 and at high redshifts and find that they follow similar trends. The [C ii]/FIR ratio is lower for galaxies with higher dust temperatures. This is best explained if increased UV intensity leads to higher FIR luminosity and dust temperatures, but gas heating does not rise due to lower photoelectric heating efficiency. The [C ii]/FIR ratio shows weaker correlation with FIR luminosity. At low redshifts highly luminous galaxies tend to have warm dust, so the effects of dust temperature and luminosity are degenerate. Luminous galaxies at high redshifts show a range of dust temperatures, showing that [C ii]/FIR correlates most strongly with dust temperature. The [C ii] to mid-IR ratio for the HELLO sample is similar to the values seen for low-redshift galaxies, indicating that small grains and PAHs dominate the heating in the neutral ISM, although some of the high [CII]/FIR ratios may be due to turbulent heating.« less

  9. OBSERVING CASCADES OF SOLAR BULLETS AT HIGH RESOLUTION. II

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Scullion, E.; Engvold, O.; Lin, Y.

    High resolution observations from the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope revealed bright, discrete, blob-like structures (which we refer to as solar bullets) in the Hα 656.28 nm line core that appear to propagate laterally across the solar atmosphere as clusters in active regions (ARs). These small-scale structures appear to be field aligned and many bullets become triggered simultaneously and traverse collectively as a cluster. Here, we conduct a follow-up study on these rapidly evolving structures with coincident observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly. With the co-aligned data sets, we reveal (a) an evolving multithermal structure in the bullet clustermore » ranging from chromospheric to at least transition region temperatures, (b) evidence for cascade-like behavior and corresponding bidirectional motions in bullets within the cluster, which indicate that there is a common source of the initial instability leading to bullet formation, and (c) a direct relationship between co-incident bullet velocities observed in Hα and He ii 30.4 nm and an inverse relationship with respect to bullet intensity in these channels. We find evidence supporting that bullets are typically composed of a cooler, higher density core detectable in Hα with a less dense, hotter, and fainter co-moving outer sheath. Bullets unequivocally demonstrate the finely structured nature of the AR corona. We have no clear evidence for bullets being associated with locally heated (or cooled), fast flowing plasma. Fast MHD pulses (such as solitons) could best describe the dynamic properties of bullets whereas the presence of a multithermal structure is new.« less

  10. Herschel observations of the Galactic H II region RCW 79

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Hong-Li; Figueira, Miguel; Zavagno, Annie; Hill, Tracey; Schneider, Nicola; Men'shchikov, Alexander; Russeil, Delphine; Motte, Frédérique; Tigé, Jérémy; Deharveng, Lise; Anderson, Loren D.; Li, Jin-Zeng; Wu, Yuefang; Yuan, Jing-Hua; Huang, Maohai

    2017-06-01

    Context. Triggered star formation around H II regions could be an important process. The Galactic H II region RCW 79 is a prototypical object for triggered high-mass star formation. Aims: We aim to obtain a census of the young stellar population observed at the edges of the H II region and to determine the properties of the young sources in order to characterize the star formation processes that take place at the edges of this ionized region. Methods: We take advantage of Herschel data from the surveys HOBYS, "Evolution of Interstellar Dust", and Hi-Gal to extract compact sources. We use the algorithm getsources. We complement the Herschel data with archival 2MASS, Spitzer, and WISE data to determine the physical parameters of the sources (e.g., envelope mass, dust temperature, and luminosity) by fitting the spectral energy distribution. Results: We created the dust temperature and column density maps along with the column density probability distribution function (PDF) for the entire RCW 79 region. We obtained a sample of 50 compact sources in this region, 96% of which are situated in the ionization-compressed layer of cold and dense gas that is characterized by the column density PDF with a double-peaked lognormal distribution. The 50 sources have sizes of 0.1-0.4 pc with a typical value of 0.2 pc, temperatures of 11-26 K, envelope masses of 6-760 M⊙, densities of 0.1-44 × 105 cm-3, and luminosities of 19-12 712 L⊙. The sources are classified into 16 class 0, 19 intermediate, and 15 class I objects. Their distribution follows the evolutionary tracks in the diagram of bolometric luminosity versus envelope mass (Lbol-Menv) well. A mass threshold of 140 M⊙, determined from the Lbol-Menv diagram, yields 12 candidate massive dense cores that may form high-mass stars. The core formation efficiency (CFE) for the 8 massive condensations shows an increasing trend of the CFE with density. This suggests that the denser the condensation, the higher the fraction of its

  11. FUSE Cycle 3 Program CO22: Chromospheric Activity in Population II Giants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harper, Graham M.

    2004-01-01

    One of the mysteries of Population II giants is that they still show chromospheric emission despite their great age. The global dynamo which was active during their main-sequence lifetimes is expected to become extremely weak through magnetic rotational braking. The nature of the observed emission is not understood; although acoustic shock waves might provide the heating, acoustic waves are not predicted to drive the observed mass loss - which in turn requires the dissipation of magneto-hydrodynamic waves. This program was designed to search for the faint stellar H Ly(beta) emission wings and the fluorescent Fe II and H2 emission from one of the brightest, metal poor, Population II stars. These FUSE diagnostics, when combined with existing UV and optical spectra, help determine the major radiative cooling channels for the chromosphere. This observation was to complement that previously planned for the mildly metal deficient giant alpha Boo (K2 III). However, a Boo has yet to be observed with FUSE.

  12. Predicting Sargassum blooms in the Caribbean Sea from MODIS observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mengqiu; Hu, Chuanmin

    2017-04-01

    Recurrent and significant Sargassum beaching events in the Caribbean Sea (CS) have caused serious environmental and economic problems, calling for a long-term prediction capacity of Sargassum blooms. Here we present predictions based on a hindcast of 2000-2016 observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), which showed Sargassum abundance in the CS and the Central West Atlantic (CWA), as well as connectivity between the two regions with time lags. This information was used to derive bloom and nonbloom probability matrices for each 1° square in the CS for the months of May-August, predicted from bloom conditions in a hotspot region in the CWA in February. A suite of standard statistical measures were used to gauge the prediction accuracy, among which the user's accuracy and kappa statistics showed high fidelity of the probability maps in predicting both blooms and nonblooms in the eastern CS with several months of lead time, with overall accuracy often exceeding 80%. The bloom probability maps from this hindcast analysis will provide early warnings to better study Sargassum blooms and prepare for beaching events near the study region. This approach may also be extendable to many other regions around the world that face similar challenges and opportunities of macroalgal blooms and beaching events.

  13. Source Regions of the Type II Radio Burst Observed During a CME-CME Interaction on 2013 May 22

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Makela, P.; Gopalswamy, N.; Reiner, M. J.; Akiyama, S.; Krupar, V.

    2016-01-01

    We report on our study of radio source regions during the type II radio burst on 2013 May 22 based on direction finding analysis of the Wind/WAVES and STEREO/WAVES (SWAVES) radio observations at decameter-hectometric wavelengths. The type II emission showed an enhancement that coincided with the interaction of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched in sequence along closely spaced trajectories. The triangulation of the SWAVES source directions posited the ecliptic projections of the radio sources near the line connecting the Sun and the STEREO-A spacecraft. The WAVES and SWAVES source directions revealed shifts in the latitude of the radio source, indicating that the spatial location of the dominant source of the type II emission varies during the CME-CME interaction. The WAVES source directions close to 1MHz frequencies matched the location of the leading edge of the primary CME seen in the images of the LASCO/C3 coronagraph. This correspondence of spatial locations at both wavelengths confirms that the CME-CME interaction region is the source of the type II enhancement. Comparison of radio and white-light observations also showed that at lower frequencies scattering significantly affects radio wave propagation.

  14. SIM_ADJUST -- A computer code that adjusts simulated equivalents for observations or predictions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poeter, Eileen P.; Hill, Mary C.

    2008-01-01

    This report documents the SIM_ADJUST computer code. SIM_ADJUST surmounts an obstacle that is sometimes encountered when using universal model analysis computer codes such as UCODE_2005 (Poeter and others, 2005), PEST (Doherty, 2004), and OSTRICH (Matott, 2005; Fredrick and others (2007). These codes often read simulated equivalents from a list in a file produced by a process model such as MODFLOW that represents a system of interest. At times values needed by the universal code are missing or assigned default values because the process model could not produce a useful solution. SIM_ADJUST can be used to (1) read a file that lists expected observation or prediction names and possible alternatives for the simulated values; (2) read a file produced by a process model that contains space or tab delimited columns, including a column of simulated values and a column of related observation or prediction names; (3) identify observations or predictions that have been omitted or assigned a default value by the process model; and (4) produce an adjusted file that contains a column of simulated values and a column of associated observation or prediction names. The user may provide alternatives that are constant values or that are alternative simulated values. The user may also provide a sequence of alternatives. For example, the heads from a series of cells may be specified to ensure that a meaningful value is available to compare with an observation located in a cell that may become dry. SIM_ADJUST is constructed using modules from the JUPITER API, and is intended for use on any computer operating system. SIM_ADJUST consists of algorithms programmed in Fortran90, which efficiently performs numerical calculations.

  15. Predicting Constraints on Ultra-Light Axion Parameters due to LSST Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Given, Gabriel; Grin, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Ultra-light axions (ULAs) are a type of dark matter or dark energy candidate (depending on the mass) that are predicted to have a mass between $10^{‑33}$ and $10^{‑18}$ eV. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is expected to provide a large number of weak lensing observations, which will lower the statistical uncertainty on the convergence power spectrum. I began work with Daniel Grin to predict how accurately the data from the LSST will be able to constrain ULA properties. I wrote Python code that takes a matter power spectrum calculated by axionCAMB and converts it to a convergence power spectrum. My code then takes derivatives of the convergence power spectrum with respect to several cosmological parameters; these derivatives will be used in Fisher Matrix analysis to determine the sensitivity of LSST observations to axion parameters.

  16. FutureTox II: in vitro data and in silico models for predictive toxicology.

    PubMed

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Keller, Douglas A; Sander, Miriam; Carney, Edward W; Doerrer, Nancy G; Eaton, David L; Fitzpatrick, Suzanne Compton; Hastings, Kenneth L; Mendrick, Donna L; Tice, Raymond R; Watkins, Paul B; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-02-01

    FutureTox II, a Society of Toxicology Contemporary Concepts in Toxicology workshop, was held in January, 2014. The meeting goals were to review and discuss the state of the science in toxicology in the context of implementing the NRC 21st century vision of predicting in vivo responses from in vitro and in silico data, and to define the goals for the future. Presentations and discussions were held on priority concerns such as predicting and modeling of metabolism, cell growth and differentiation, effects on sensitive subpopulations, and integrating data into risk assessment. Emerging trends in technologies such as stem cell-derived human cells, 3D organotypic culture models, mathematical modeling of cellular processes and morphogenesis, adverse outcome pathway development, and high-content imaging of in vivo systems were discussed. Although advances in moving towards an in vitro/in silico based risk assessment paradigm were apparent, knowledge gaps in these areas and limitations of technologies were identified. Specific recommendations were made for future directions and research needs in the areas of hepatotoxicity, cancer prediction, developmental toxicity, and regulatory toxicology. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Transverse Oscillations in Slender Ca ii H Fibrils Observed with Sunrise/SuFI

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jafarzadeh, S.; Solanki, S. K.; Gafeira, R.

    We present observations of transverse oscillations in slender Ca ii H fibrils (SCFs) in the lower solar chromosphere. We use a 1 hr long time series of high- (spatial and temporal-) resolution seeing-free observations in a 1.1 Å wide passband covering the line core of Ca ii H 3969 Å from the second flight of the Sunrise balloon-borne solar observatory. The entire field of view, spanning the polarity inversion line of an active region close to the solar disk center, is covered with bright, thin, and very dynamic fine structures. Our analysis reveals the prevalence of transverse waves in SCFs with median amplitudes andmore » periods on the order of 2.4 ± 0.8 km s{sup −1} and 83 ± 29 s, respectively (with standard deviations given as uncertainties). We find that the transverse waves often propagate along (parts of) the SCFs with median phase speeds of 9 ± 14 km s{sup −1}. While the propagation is only in one direction along the axis in some of the SCFs, propagating waves in both directions, as well as standing waves are also observed. The transverse oscillations are likely Alfvénic and are thought to be representative of magnetohydrodynamic kink waves. The wave propagation suggests that the rapid high-frequency transverse waves, often produced in the lower photosphere, can penetrate into the chromosphere with an estimated energy flux of ≈15 kW m{sup −2}. Characteristics of these waves differ from those reported for other fibrillar structures, which, however, were observed mainly in the upper solar chromosphere.« less

  18. KEPLER OBSERVATIONS OF THE SEYFERT 1 GALAXY II ZW 229.015

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Carini, M. T.; Ryle, Wesley T., E-mail: mike.carini@wku.edu

    2012-04-10

    The Seyfert 1 galaxy II ZW 229.015 has been observed with the Kepler spacecraft since quarter 4 of Kepler science operations. The results of the quarters 4-7 (1 year) Kepler observations are presented in this paper. We find the source to be highly variable on multiple timescales, with discrete variations occurring on timescales as short as tens of hours with amplitudes as small as 0.5%. Such small amplitude, rapid variability has never before been detected in active galactic nuclei. The presence of a strong galaxy component dilutes the variability determined from the photometric aperture used in the standard Kepler PDCmore » analysis. Using the tools provided by the Kepler Guest Observer Office and simultaneous V-band photometry found in the literature, we determine an optimal customized aperture for photometry of this source with Kepler. The results of a PSRESP analysis reveal tentative evidence of a characteristic variability timescale in the power spectrum. Using this timescale, we estimate the mass of the central supermassive black hole and this estimate is consistent with the virial mass estimate from reverberation mapping studies.« less

  19. Does the KABC-II Display Ethnic Bias in the Prediction of Reading, Math, and Writing in Elementary School Through High School?

    PubMed

    Scheiber, Caroline

    2017-09-01

    This study explored whether the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children-Second Edition (KABC-II) predicted academic achievement outcomes of the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement-Second Edition (KTEA-II) equally well across a representative sample of African American, Hispanic, and Caucasian school-aged children ( N = 2,001) in three grade groups (1-4, 5-8, 9-12). It was of interest to study possible prediction bias in the slope and intercept of the five underlying Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) cognitive factors of the KABC-II-Sequential/Gsm (Short-Term Memory), Learning/Glr (Long-Term Storage and Retrieval), Simultaneous/Gv (Visual Processing), Planning/Gf (Fluid Reasoning), and Knowledge/Gc (Crystallized Ability)-in estimating reading, writing, and math. Structural equation modeling techniques demonstrated a lack of bias in the slopes; however, four of the five CHC indexes showed a persistent overprediction of the minority groups' achievement in the intercept. The overprediction is likely attributable to institutional or societal contributions, which limit the students' ability to achieve to their fullest potential.

  20. Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

    PubMed

    Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

    2017-07-01

    Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Bayesian Maximum Entropy Integration of Ozone Observations and Model Predictions: A National Application.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yadong; Serre, Marc L; Reyes, Jeanette; Vizuete, William

    2016-04-19

    To improve ozone exposure estimates for ambient concentrations at a national scale, we introduce our novel Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) approach to integrate chemical transport model (CTM) predictions with the available ozone observations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework. The framework models the nonlinear and nonhomoscedastic relation between air pollution observations and CTM predictions and for the first time accounts for variability in CTM model performance. A validation analysis using only noncollocated data outside of a validation radius rv was performed and the R(2) between observations and re-estimated values for two daily metrics, the daily maximum 8-h average (DM8A) and the daily 24-h average (D24A) ozone concentrations, were obtained with the OBS scenario using ozone observations only in contrast with the RAMP and a Constant Air Quality Model Performance (CAMP) scenarios. We show that, by accounting for the spatial and temporal variability in model performance, our novel RAMP approach is able to extract more information in terms of R(2) increase percentage, with over 12 times for the DM8A and over 3.5 times for the D24A ozone concentrations, from CTM predictions than the CAMP approach assuming that model performance does not change across space and time.

  2. Second Epoch VLBA Calibrator Survey Observations - VCS-II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gordon, David; Jacobs, Christopher; Beasley, Anthony; Peck, Alison; Gaume, Ralph; Charlot, Patrick; Fey, Alan; Ma, Chopo; Titov, Oleg; Boboltz, David

    2016-01-01

    Six very successful VLBA calibrator survey campaigns were run between 1994 and 2007 to build up a large list of compact radio sources with positions precise enough for use as VLBI phase reference calibrators. We report on the results of a second epoch VLBA Calibrator Survey campaign (VCS-II) in which 2400 VCS sources were re-observed at X and S bands in order to improve the upcoming third realization of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF3) as well as to improve their usefulness as VLBI phase reference calibrators. In this survey, some 2062 previously detected sources and 324 previously undetected sources were detected and revised positions are presented. Average position uncertainties for the reobserved sources were reduced from 1.14 and 1.98 mas to 0.24 and 0.41 mas in RA and Declination, respectively, or by nearly a factor of 5. Minimum detected flux values were approximately 15 and 28 mJy in X and S bands, respectively, and median total fluxes are approximately 230 and 280 mJy. The vast majority of these sources are flat-spectrum sources, with approximately 82% having spectral indices greater than -0.5.

  3. FOUR Score Predicts Early Outcome in Patients After Traumatic Brain Injury.

    PubMed

    Nyam, Tee-Tau Eric; Ao, Kam-Hou; Hung, Shu-Yu; Shen, Mei-Li; Yu, Tzu-Chieh; Kuo, Jinn-Rung

    2017-04-01

    The aim of the study was to determine whether the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score, which includes eyes opening (E), motor function (M), brainstem reflex (B), and respiratory pattern (R), can be used as an alternate method to the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients. From January 2015 to June 2015, patients with isolated TBI admitted to the ICU were enrolled. Three advanced practice nurses administered the FOUR score, GCS, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), and Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System (TISS) concurrently from ICU admissions. The endpoint of observation was mortality when the patients left the ICU. Data are presented as frequency with percentages, mean with standard deviation, or median with interquartile range. Each measurement tool used area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to compare the predictive power between these four tools. In addition, the difference between survival and death was estimated using the Wilcoxon rank sum test. From 55 TBI patients, males (72.73 %) were represented more than females, the mean age was 63.1 ± 17.9, and 19 of 55 observations (35 %) had a maximum FOUR score of 16. The overall mortality rate was 14.6 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 74.47 % for the FOUR score, 74.73 % for the GCS, 81.78 % for the APACHE II, and 53.32 % for the TISS. The FOUR score has similar predictive power of mortality compared to the GCS and APACHE II. Each of the parameters-E, M, B, and R-of the FOUR score showed a significant difference between mortality and survival group, while the verbal and eye-opening components of the GCS did not. Having similar predictive power of mortality compared to the GCS and APACHE II, the FOUR score can be used as an alternative in the prediction of early mortality in TBI patients in the ICU.

  4. Magneto-optical observation of twisted vortices in type-II superconductors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Indenbom, M. V.; van der Beek, C. J.; Berseth, V.; Benoit, W.; D'Anna, G.; Erb, A.; Walker, E.; Flükiger, R.

    1997-02-01

    When magnetic flux penetrates a type-II superconductor, it does so as quantized flux lines or vortex lines, so called because each is surrounded by a supercurrent vortex. Interactions between such vortices lead to a very rich and well characterized phenomenology for this 'mixed state'. But an outstanding question remains: are individual vortex lines 'strong', or can they easily be cut and made to pass through one another? The concept of vortex cutting was originally proposed to account for dissipation observed in superconducting wires oriented parallel to an applied magnetic field, where the vortex lines and transport current should be in a force-free configuration1-6. Previous experiments, however, have been unable to establish the vortex topology in the force-free configuration or the size of the energy barrier for vortex cutting. Here we report magneto-optical images of YBa2Cu3O7-δ samples in the force-free configuration which show that thousands of vortex lines can twist together to form highly stable structures. In some cases, these 'vortex twisters' interact with one another to produce wave-like dynamics. Our measurements also determine directly the current required to initiate vortex cutting, and show that it is much higher than that needed to overcome the pinning of vortices by material defects. This implies that thermodynamic phases of entangled vortices7-10 are intrinsically stable and may occupy a significant portion of the mixed-state phase diagram for type-II superconductors.

  5. Comparison between model predictions and observations of ELF radio atmospherics generated by rocket-triggered lightning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupree, N. A.; Moore, R. C.

    2011-12-01

    Model predictions of the ELF radio atmospheric generated by rocket-triggered lightning are compared with observations performed at Arrival Heights, Antarctica. The ability to infer source characteristics using observations at great distances may prove to greatly enhance the understanding of lightning processes that are associated with the production of transient luminous events (TLEs) as well as other ionospheric effects associated with lightning. The modeling of the sferic waveform is carried out using a modified version of the Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) code developed by the Naval Ocean Systems Center over a period of many years. LWPC is an inherently narrowband propagation code that has been modified to predict the broadband response of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to an impulsive lightning flash while preserving the ability of LWPC to account for an inhomogeneous waveguide. ELF observations performed at Arrival Heights, Antarctica during rocket-triggered lightning experiments at the International Center for Lightning Research and Testing (ICLRT) located at Camp Blanding, Florida are presented. The lightning current waveforms directly measured at the base of the lightning channel (at the ICLRT) are used together with LWPC to predict the sferic waveform observed at Arrival Heights under various ionospheric conditions. This paper critically compares observations with model predictions.

  6. [Role of angiotensin II receptor type 2 in predicting biochemical recurrence in the treatment of prostate cancer].

    PubMed

    Chibichyan, M B; Kogan, M I; Chernogubova, E A; Pavlenko, I A; Matishov, D G

    2016-12-01

    To identify markers for predicting aggressive forms of prostate cancer. The study retrospectively evaluated expression of angiotensin II type 2 receptors (AT2-R) in prostate needle biopsy tissue from patients with and without biochemical recurrence after combined hormone and radiation therapy. The study findings showed that low expression of AT2-R in prostate tissue was associated with a high risk of biochemical recurrence. The data on the nature of AT2-R expression in prostate tissue of prostate cancer patients may be considered as a tool for predicting biochemical recurrence after combined hormone and radiation therapy. The test has a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 85.71%.

  7. Biomarker-Based Prediction Models for Response to Treatment in Systemic Sclerosis-Related Interstitial Lung Disease

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-10-01

    in the baseline samples of the Scleroderma Lung Study II (SLS II). We are currently analyzing whether these serum proteins have predictive...In this project, we use the valuable samples collected in the Scleroderma Lung Study II (SLSII) clinical trial and the observational cohort, GENISOS...determine key serum protein levels and transcript signatures in whole blood and skin samples collected in the SLSII study . The identified candidate

  8. PARALLEL MEASUREMENT AND MODELING OF TRANSPORT IN THE DARHT II BEAMLINE ON ETA II

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chambers, F W; Raymond, B A; Falabella, S

    To successfully tune the DARHT II transport beamline requires the close coupling of a model of the beam transport and the measurement of the beam observables as the beam conditions and magnet settings are varied. For the ETA II experiment using the DARHT II beamline components this was achieved using the SUICIDE (Simple User Interface Connecting to an Integrated Data Environment) data analysis environment and the FITS (Fully Integrated Transport Simulation) model. The SUICIDE environment has direct access to the experimental beam transport data at acquisition and the FITS predictions of the transport for immediate comparison. The FITS model ismore » coupled into the control system where it can read magnet current settings for real time modeling. We find this integrated coupling is essential for model verification and the successful development of a tuning aid for the efficient convergence on a useable tune. We show the real time comparisons of simulation and experiment and explore the successes and limitations of this close coupled approach.« less

  9. Sex Differences in the Behavioral Desensitization of Water Intake Observed After Repeated Central Injections of Angiotensin II.

    PubMed

    Santollo, Jessica; Volcko, K Linnea; Daniels, Derek

    2018-02-01

    Previous in vivo and in vitro studies demonstrate that the angiotensin type 1 receptor rapidly desensitizes after exposure to angiotensin II (AngII). Behaviorally, this likely underlies the reduced drinking observed after acute repeated central injections of AngII. To date, this phenomenon has been studied exclusively in male subjects. Because there are sex differences in the dipsogenic potency of AngII, we hypothesized that sex differences also exist in desensitization caused by AngII. As expected, when male rats were pretreated with AngII, they drank less water after a test injection of AngII than did rats pretreated with vehicle. Intact cycling female rats, however, drank similar amounts of water after AngII regardless of the pretreatment. To probe the mechanism underlying this sex difference, we tested the role of gonadal hormones in adult and developing rats. Gonadectomy in adults did not produce a male-like propensity for desensitization of water intake in female rats, nor did it produce a female-like response in male rats. To test if neonatal brain masculinization generated a male-like responsiveness, female pups were treated at birth with vehicle, testosterone propionate (TP), or dihydrotestosterone (DHT). When tested as adults, TP-treated female rats showed a male-like desensitization after repeated AngII that was not found in vehicle- or DHT-treated rats. Together, these data reveal a striking sex difference in the behavioral response to elevated AngII that is mediated by organizational effects of gonadal hormones and provide an example of one of the many ways that sex influences the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. Copyright © 2018 Endocrine Society.

  10. Comparison of BRDF-Predicted and Observed Light Curves of GEO Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceniceros, A.; Dao, P.; Gaylor, D.; Rast, R.; Anderson, J.; Pinon, E., III

    Although the amount of light received by sensors on the ground from Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in geostationary orbit (GEO) is small, information can still be extracted in the form of light curves (temporal brightness or apparent magnitude). Previous research has shown promising results in determining RSO characteristics such as shape, size, reflectivity, and attitude by processing simulated light curve data with various estimation algorithms. These simulated light curves have been produced using one of several existing analytic Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) models. These BRDF models have generally come from researchers in computer graphics and machine vision and have not been shown to be realistic for telescope observations of RSOs in GEO. While BRDFs have been used for SSA analysis and characterization, there is a lack of research on the validation of BRDFs with regards to real data. In this paper, we compared telescope data provided by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) with predicted light curves from the Ashikhmin-Premoze BRDF and two additional popular illumination models, Ashikhmin-Shirley and Cook-Torrance. We computed predicted light curves based on two line mean elements (TLEs), shape model, attitude profile, observing ground station location, observation time and BRDF. The predicted light curves were then compared with AFRL telescope data. The selected BRDFS provided accurate apparent magnitude trends and behavior, but uncertainties due to lack of attitude information and deficiencies in our satellite model prevented us from obtaining a better match to the real data. The current findings present a foundation for ample future research.

  11. Resolving Discrepancies Between Observed and Predicted Dynamic Topography on Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, F. D.; Hoggard, M.; White, N. J.

    2017-12-01

    Compilations of well-resolved oceanic residual depth measurements suggest that present-day dynamic topography differs from that predicted by geodynamic simulations in two significant respects. At short wavelengths (λ ≤ 5,000 km), much larger amplitude variations are observed, whereas at long wavelengths (λ > 5,000 km), observed dynamic topography is substantially smaller. Explaining the cause of this discrepancy with a view to reconciling these different approaches is central to constraining the structure and dynamics of the deep Earth. Here, we first convert shear wave velocity to temperature using an experimentally-derived anelasticity model. This relationship is calibrated using a pressure and temperature-dependent plate model that satisfies age-depth subsidence, heat flow measurements, and seismological constraints on the depth to the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. In this way, we show that, at short-wavelengths, observed dynamic topography is consistent with ±150 ºC asthenospheric temperature anomalies. These inferred thermal buoyancy variations are independently verified by temperature measurements derived from geochemical analyses of mid-ocean ridge basalts. Viscosity profiles derived from the anelasticity model suggest that the asthenosphere has an average viscosity that is two orders of magnitude lower than that of the underlying upper mantle. The base of this low-viscosity layer coincides with a peak in azimuthal anisotropy observed in recent seismic experiments. This agreement implies that lateral asthenospheric flow is rapid with respect to the underlying upper mantle. We conclude that improved density and viscosity models of the uppermost mantle, which combine a more comprehensive physical description of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system with recent seismic tomographic models, can help to resolve spectral discrepancies between observed and predicted dynamic topography. Finally, we explore possible solutions to the long

  12. Predicting Success in ISCS Level II.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDuffie, Thomas E., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Investigates a method to predict best and least suited students for the ISCS instructional approach. Aptitude-treatment interactions associated with ISCS instruction and a set of aptitude, attitude, and skill factors were utilized to make and verify predictions on two dependent variables--achievement and success. (Author/GA)

  13. SOURCE REGIONS OF THE TYPE II RADIO BURST OBSERVED DURING A CME–CME INTERACTION ON 2013 MAY 22

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mäkelä, P.; Reiner, M. J.; Akiyama, S.

    2016-08-20

    We report on our study of radio source regions during the type II radio burst on 2013 May 22 based on direction-finding analysis of the Wind /WAVES and STEREO /WAVES (SWAVES) radio observations at decameter–hectometric wavelengths. The type II emission showed an enhancement that coincided with the interaction of two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched in sequence along closely spaced trajectories. The triangulation of the SWAVES source directions posited the ecliptic projections of the radio sources near the line connecting the Sun and the STEREO-A spacecraft. The WAVES and SWAVES source directions revealed shifts in the latitude of the radiomore » source, indicating that the spatial location of the dominant source of the type II emission varies during the CME–CME interaction. The WAVES source directions close to 1 MHz frequencies matched the location of the leading edge of the primary CME seen in the images of the LASCO/C3 coronagraph. This correspondence of spatial locations at both wavelengths confirms that the CME–CME interaction region is the source of the type II enhancement. Comparison of radio and white-light observations also showed that at lower frequencies scattering significantly affects radio wave propagation.« less

  14. Manganese(II), iron(II), cobalt(II), and copper(II) complexes of an extended inherently chiral tris-bipyridyl cage.

    PubMed

    Perkins, David F; Lindoy, Leonard F; McAuley, Alexander; Meehan, George V; Turner, Peter

    2006-01-17

    Manganese(II), iron(II), cobalt(II), and copper(II) derivatives of two inherently chiral, Tris(bipyridyl) cages (L and L') of type [ML]-(PF(6))(2)(solvent)(n) and [FeL'](ClO(4))(2) are reported, where L is the hexa-tertiary butyl-substituted derivative of L'. These products were obtained by using the free cage and metal template procedures; the latter involved the reductive amination of the respective Tris-dialdehyde precursor complexes of iron(II), cobalt(II), or nickel(II). Electrochemical, EPR, and NMR studies have been used to probe the nature of the individual complexes. X-ray structures of the manganese(II), iron(II), and copper(II) complexes of L and the iron(II) complex of L' are presented; these are compared with the previously reported structures of the corresponding nickel(II) complex and metal-free cage (L). In each complex the metal cation occupies the cage's central cavity and is coordinated to six nitrogens from the three bipyridyl groups. The cations [MnL](2+) and [FeL](2+) are isostructural but both exhibit a different arrangement of the bound cage to that observed in the corresponding nickel(II) and copper(II) complexes. The latter have an exo-exo arrangement of the bridgehead nitrogen lone pairs, with the metal inducing a triple helical twist that extends approximately 22 A along the axial length of each complex. In contrast, [MnL](2+) and [FeL](2+) have their terminal nitrogen lone pairs directed endo, causing a significant change in the configuration of the bound ligand. In [FeL'](2+), the cage has both bridgehead nitrogen lone pairs orientated exo. Semiempirical calculations indicate that the observed endo-endo and exo-exo arrangements are of comparable energy.

  15. A Close Relationship between Lyα and Mg II in Green Pea Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, Alaina; Berg, Danielle A.; Scarlata, Claudia; Verhamme, Anne; Erb, Dawn

    2018-03-01

    The Mg II λλ2796, 2803 doublet is often used to measure interstellar medium absorption in galaxies, thereby serving as a diagnostic for feedback and outflows. However, the interpretation of Mg II remains confusing, due to resonant trapping and re-emission of the photons, analogous to Lyα. Therefore, in this paper, we present new MMT Blue Channel Spectrograph observations of Mg II for a sample of 10 Green Pea galaxies at z ∼ 0.2–0.3, where Lyα was previously observed with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. With strong, (mostly) double-peaked Lyα profiles, these galaxies allow us to observe Mg II in the limit of low H I column density. We find strong Mg II emission and little-to-no absorption. We use photoionization models to show that nebular Mg II from H II regions is non-negligible, and the ratios of Mg II λλ2796, 2803/[O III] λ5007 versus [O III] λ5007/[O II] λ3727 form a tight sequence. Using this relation, we predict intrinsic Mg II flux, and show that Mg II escape fractions range from 0 to 0.9. We find that the Mg II escape fraction correlates tightly with the Lyα escape fraction, and the Mg II line profiles show evidence for broader and more redshifted emission when the escape fractions are low. These trends are expected if the escape fractions and velocity profiles of Lyα and Mg II are shaped by resonant scattering in the same low column density gas. As a consequence of a close relation with Lyα, Mg II may serve as a useful diagnostic in the epoch of reionization, where Lyα and Lyman continuum photons are not easily observed.

  16. The HART II International Workshop: An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in Comprehensive Code Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    vanderWall, Berend G.; Lim, Joon W.; Smith, Marilyn J.; Jung, Sung N.; Bailly, Joelle; Baeder, James D.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

    2013-01-01

    Significant advancements in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and their coupling with computational structural dynamics (CSD, or comprehensive codes) for rotorcraft applications have been achieved recently. Despite this, CSD codes with their engineering level of modeling the rotor blade dynamics, the unsteady sectional aerodynamics and the vortical wake are still the workhorse for the majority of applications. This is especially true when a large number of parameter variations is to be performed and their impact on performance, structural loads, vibration and noise is to be judged in an approximate yet reliable and as accurate as possible manner. In this article, the capabilities of such codes are evaluated using the HART II International Workshop database, focusing on a typical descent operating condition which includes strong blade-vortex interactions. A companion article addresses the CFD/CSD coupled approach. Three cases are of interest: the baseline case and two cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) with different control phases employed. One setting is for minimum blade-vortex interaction noise radiation and the other one for minimum vibration generation. The challenge is to correctly predict the wake physics-especially for the cases with HHC-and all the dynamics, aerodynamics, modifications of the wake structure and the aero-acoustics coming with it. It is observed that the comprehensive codes used today have a surprisingly good predictive capability when they appropriately account for all of the physics involved. The minimum requirements to obtain these results are outlined.

  17. An Assessment of Comprehensive Code Prediction State-of-the-Art Using the HART II International Workshop Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    vanderWall, Berend G.; Lim, Joon W.; Smith, Marilyn J.; Jung, Sung N.; Bailly, Joelle; Baeder, James D.; Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

    2012-01-01

    Despite significant advancements in computational fluid dynamics and their coupling with computational structural dynamics (= CSD, or comprehensive codes) for rotorcraft applications, CSD codes with their engineering level of modeling the rotor blade dynamics, the unsteady sectional aerodynamics and the vortical wake are still the workhorse for the majority of applications. This is especially true when a large number of parameter variations is to be performed and their impact on performance, structural loads, vibration and noise is to be judged in an approximate yet reliable and as accurate as possible manner. In this paper, the capabilities of such codes are evaluated using the HART II Inter- national Workshop data base, focusing on a typical descent operating condition which includes strong blade-vortex interactions. Three cases are of interest: the baseline case and two cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) with different control phases employed. One setting is for minimum blade-vortex interaction noise radiation and the other one for minimum vibration generation. The challenge is to correctly predict the wake physics - especially for the cases with HHC - and all the dynamics, aerodynamics, modifications of the wake structure and the aero-acoustics coming with it. It is observed that the comprehensive codes used today have a surprisingly good predictive capability when they appropriately account for all of the physics involved. The minimum requirements to obtain these results are outlined.

  18. The Role of Type II Spicules in the Upper Solar Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klimchuk, James A.

    2012-01-01

    We examine the suggestion that most of the hot plasma in the Sun's co rona comes from type II spicule material that is heated as it is ejected from the chromosphere. This contrasts with the traditional view th at the corona is filled via chromospheric evaporation that results fr om coronal heating. We explore the observational consequences of a hy pothetical spicule dominated corona and conclude from the large discr epancy between predicted and actual observations that only a small fraction of the hot plasma can be supplied by spicules (<2% in active regions and <5% in the quiet Sun). The red- blue asymmetries of EUV spec tral lines and the ratio of lower transition region (LTR; T< or =0.1 MK) to coronal emission measures are both predicted to be 2 orders of magnitude larger than observed. Furthermore, hot spicule material would cool dramatically by adiabatic expansion as it rises into the corona, so coronal heating would be required to maintain the high temperatu res that are seen at all altitudes. The necessity of coronal heating is inescapable. Traditional coronal heating models predict far too little emission from the LTR, and we suggest that this emission comes pr imarily from the bulk of the spicule material that is heated to < or =0.1 MK and is visible in He II (304 ?A) as it falls back to the surf ace.

  19. The Role of Type II Spicules in the Upper Solar Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klimchuk, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    We examine the suggestion that most of the hot plasma in the Sun's corona comes from type II spicule material that is heated as it is ejected from the chromosphere. This contrasts with the traditional view that the corona is filled via chromospheric evaporation that results from coronal heating. We explore the observational consequences of a hypothetical spicule dominated corona and conclude from the large discrepancy between predicted and actual observations that only a small fraction of the hot plasma can be supplied by spicules (<2% in active regions and <5% in the quiet Sun). The red-blue asymmetries of EUV spectral lines and the ratio of lower transition region (LTR; T<0.1 MK) to coronal emission measures are both predicted to be 2 orders of magnitude larger than observed. Furthermore, hot spicule material would cool dramatically by adiabatic expansion as it rises into the corona, so coronal heating would likely be required to maintain the high temperatures that are seen at all altitudes. The necessity of coronal heating seems inescapable. Traditional coronal heating models predict far too little emission from the LTR, and we suggest that this emission comes primarily from the bulk of the spicule material that is heated to <0.1 MK and is visible in He II (304 A) as it falls back to the surface.

  20. Observed Parenting Behavior with Teens: Measurement Invariance and Predictive Validity Across Race

    PubMed Central

    Skinner, Martie L.; MacKenzie, Elizabeth P.; Haggerty, Kevin P.; Hill, Karl G.; Roberson, Kendra C.

    2011-01-01

    Previous reports supporting measurement equality between European American and African American families have often focused on self-reported risk factors or observed parent behavior with young children. This study examines equality of measurement of observer ratings of parenting behavior with adolescents during structured tasks; mean levels of observed parenting; and predictive validity of teen self-reports of antisocial behaviors and beliefs using a sample of 163 African American and 168 European American families. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analyses supported measurement invariance across ethnic groups for 4 measures of observed parenting behavior: prosocial rewards, psychological costs, antisocial rewards, and problem solving. Some mean-level differences were found: African American parents exhibited lower levels of prosocial rewards, higher levels of psychological costs, and lower problem solving when compared to European Americans. No significant mean difference was found in rewards for antisocial behavior. Multigroup structural equation models suggested comparable relationships across race (predictive validity) between parenting constructs and youth antisocial constructs (i.e., drug initiation, positive drug attitudes, antisocial attitudes, problem behaviors) in all but one of the tested relationships. This study adds to existing evidence that family-based interventions targeting parenting behaviors can be generalized to African American families. PMID:21787057

  1. Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates

    PubMed Central

    Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L.; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age. PMID:21949599

  2. Observed Emotional and Behavioral Indicators of Motivation Predict School Readiness in Head Start Graduates.

    PubMed

    Berhenke, Amanda; Miller, Alison L; Brown, Eleanor; Seifer, Ronald; Dickstein, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Emotions and behaviors observed during challenging tasks are hypothesized to be valuable indicators of young children's motivation, the assessment of which may be particularly important for children at risk for school failure. The current study demonstrated reliability and concurrent validity of a new observational assessment of motivation in young children. Head Start graduates completed challenging puzzle and trivia tasks during their kindergarten year. Children's emotion expression and task engagement were assessed based on their observed facial and verbal expressions and behavioral cues. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that observed persistence and shame predicted teacher ratings of children's academic achievement, whereas interest, anxiety, pride, shame, and persistence predicted children's social skills and learning-related behaviors. Children's emotional and behavioral responses to challenge thus appeared to be important indicators of school success. Observation of such responses may be a useful and valid alternative to self-report measures of motivation at this age.

  3. Vaginal birth after caesarean section prediction models: a UK comparative observational study.

    PubMed

    Mone, Fionnuala; Harrity, Conor; Mackie, Adam; Segurado, Ricardo; Toner, Brenda; McCormick, Timothy R; Currie, Aoife; McAuliffe, Fionnuala M

    2015-10-01

    Primarily, to assess the performance of three statistical models in predicting successful vaginal birth in patients attempting a trial of labour after one previous lower segment caesarean section (TOLAC). The statistically most reliable models were subsequently subjected to validation testing in a local antenatal population. A retrospective observational study was performed with study data collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). The study population included all women that underwent a TOLAC (n=385) from 2010 to 2012 in a regional UK obstetric unit. Data was collected from the Northern Ireland Maternity Service Database (NIMATs). Area under the curve (AUC) and correlation analysis was performed. Of the three prediction models evaluated, AUC calculations for the Smith et al., Grobman et al. and Troyer and Parisi Models were 0.74, 0.72 and 0.65, respectively. Using the Smith et al. model, 52% of women had a low risk of caesarean section (CS) (predicted VBAC >72%) and 20% had a high risk of CS (predicted VBAC <60%), of whom 20% and 63% had delivery by CS. The fit between observed and predicted outcome in this study cohort using the Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models were greatest (Chi-square test, p=0.228 and 0.904), validating both within the population. The Smith et al. and Grobman et al. models could potentially be utilized within the UK to provide women with an informed choice when deciding on mode of delivery after a previous CS. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive value of PET-CT for pathological response in stages II and III breast cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemotherapy with docetaxel.

    PubMed

    García García-Esquinas, Marta A; Arrazola García, Juan; García-Sáenz, José A; Furió-Bacete, V; Fuentes Ferrer, Manuel E; Ortega Candil, Aída; Cabrera Martín, María N; Carreras Delgado, José L

    2014-01-01

    To prospectively study the value of PET-CT with fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) to predict neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) response of locoregional disease of stages II and III breast cancer patients. A written informed consent and approval were obtained from the Ethics Committee. PET-CT accuracy in the prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR) after NAC was studied in primary tumors and lymph node metastasis in 43 women (mean age: 50 years: range: 27-71 years) with histologically proven breast cancer between December 2009 and January 2011. PET-CT was performed at baseline and after NAC. SUV(max) percentage changes (ΔSUV(max)) were compared with pathology findings at surgery. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to discriminate between locoregional pCR and non-pCR. In patients not achieving pCR, it was investigated if ΔSUV(max) could accurately identify the residual cancer burden (RCB) classes: RCB-I (minimal residual disease (MRD)), RCB-II (moderate RD), and RCB-III (extensive RD). pCR was obtained in 11 patients (25.6%). Residual disease was found in 32 patients (74.4%): 16 (37.2%) RCB-I, 15 (35.6%) RCB-II and 2 (4.7%) RCB-III. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy to predict pCR were 90.9%, 90.6%, and 90.7%, respectively. Specificity was 94.1% in the identification of a subset of patients who had either pCR or MRD. Accuracy of ΔSUV(max) in the locoregional disease of stages II and III breast cancer patients after NAC is high for the identification of pCR cases. Its specificity is potentially sufficient to identify a subgroup of patients who could be managed with conservative surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. and SEMNIM. All rights reserved.

  5. Transition Region and Chromospheric Signatures of Impulsive Heating Events. I. Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warren, Harry P.; Reep, Jeffrey W.; Crump, Nicholas A.; Simões, Paulo J. A.

    2016-09-01

    We exploit the high spatial resolution and high cadence of the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) to investigate the response of the transition region and chromosphere to energy deposition during a small flare. Simultaneous observations from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager provide constraints on the energetic electrons precipitating into the flare footpoints, while observations of the X-Ray Telescope, Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, and Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) allow us to measure the temperatures and emission measures from the resulting flare loops. We find clear evidence for heating over an extended period on the spatial scale of a single IRIS pixel. During the impulsive phase of this event, the intensities in each pixel for the Si IV 1402.770 Å, C II 1334.535 Å, Mg II 2796.354 Å, and O I 1355.598 Å emission lines are characterized by numerous small-scale bursts typically lasting 60 s or less. Redshifts are observed in Si IV, C II, and Mg II during the impulsive phase. Mg II shows redshifts during the bursts and stationary emission at other times. The Si IV and C II profiles, in contrast, are observed to be redshifted at all times during the impulsive phase. These persistent redshifts are a challenge for one-dimensional hydrodynamic models, which predict only short-duration downflows in response to impulsive heating. We conjecture that energy is being released on many small-scale filaments with a power-law distribution of heating rates.

  6. On the origin of [Ne II] emission in young stars: mid-infrared and optical observations with the Very Large Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldovin-Saavedra, C.; Audard, M.; Carmona, A.; Güdel, M.; Briggs, K.; Rebull, L. M.; Skinner, S. L.; Ercolano, B.

    2012-07-01

    Context. The [Ne II] line 12.81 μm was proposed to be a good tracer of gas in the environments of proto-planetary disks; its origin is explained by different mechanisms: jets in outflows, photo-evaporative disk winds driven by stellar X-rays/EUV or by the X-ray irradiated proto-planetary disk atmosphere. Previous Spitzer studies gave hints toward the neon emitting mechanism by exploring correlations between the line luminosity and properties of the star-disk system. These studies concluded that the origin of the emission is likely related to accretion and outflows, with some influence from X-rays. Aims: We provide direct constraints on the origin of the [Ne II] emission using high-spatial and spectral resolution observations that allow us to study the kinematics of the emitting gas. In addition we compare the [Ne II] line with optical forbidden lines. Methods: We obtained high-resolution ground-based observations with VISIR-VLT for 15 stars and UVES-VLT for three of them. The stars were chosen for having bright neon emission lines detected with Spitzer/IRS. The velocity shifts and profiles are used to disentangle the different emitting mechanisms producing the [Ne II] line. A comparison between results from this study and previous high-resolution studies is also presented. Results: The [Ne II] line was detected in seven stars, among them the first confirmed detection of [Ne II] in a Herbig Be star, V892 Tau. In four cases, the large blueshifted lines indicate an origin in a jet. In two stars, the small shifts and asymmetric profiles indicate an origin in a photo-evaporative wind. CoKu Tau 1, seen close to edge-on, shows a spatially unresolved line centered at the stellar rest velocity, although cross-dispersion centroids move within 10 AU from one side of the star to the other as a function of wavelength. The line profile is symmetric with wings extending up to ~±80 km s-1. The origin of the [Ne II] line is unclear and could either be due to the bipolar jet or to

  7. Preparing to predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramp, S. R.; Davis, R. E.; Leonard, N. E.; Shulman, I.; Chao, Y.; Robinson, A. R.; Marsden, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Fratantoni, D. M.; Paduan, J. D.; Chavez, F. P.; Bahr, F. L.; Liang, S.; Leslie, W.; Li, Z.

    2009-02-01

    The Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network Phase Two (AOSN-II) experiment was conducted in and offshore from the Monterey Bay on the central California coast during July 23-September 6, 2003. The objective of the experiment was to learn how to apply new tools, technologies, and analysis techniques to adaptively sample the coastal ocean in a manner demonstrably superior to traditional methodologies, and to use the information gathered to improve predictive skill for quantities of interest to end-users. The scientific goal was to study the upwelling/relaxation cycle near an open coastal bay in an eastern boundary current region, particularly as it developed and spread from a coastal headland. The suite of observational tools used included a low-flying aircraft, a fleet of underwater gliders, including several under adaptive autonomous control, and propeller-driven AUVs in addition to moorings, ships, and other more traditional hardware. The data were delivered in real time and assimilated into the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (JPL/ROMS). Two upwelling events and one relaxation event were sampled during the experiment. The upwelling in both cases began when a pool of cold water less than 13 °C appeared near Cape Año Nuevo and subsequently spread offshore and southward across the bay as the equatorward wind stress continued. The primary difference between the events was that the first event spread offshore and southward, while the second event spread only southward and not offshore. The difference is attributed to the position and strength of meanders and eddies of the California Current System offshore, which blocked or steered the cold upwelled water. The space and time scales of the mesoscale variability were much shorter than have been previously observed in deep-water eddies offshore. Additional process studies are needed to elucidate

  8. Light stops and observation of supersymmetry at LHC run II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaufman, Bryan; Nath, Pran; Nelson, Brent D.; Spisak, Andrew B.

    2015-11-01

    Light stops consistent with the Higgs boson mass of ˜126 GeV are investigated within the framework of minimal supergravity. It is shown that models with light stops which are also consistent with the thermal relic density constraints require stop coannihilation with the neutralino LSP. The analysis shows that the residual set of parameter points with light stops satisfying both the Higgs mass and the relic density constraints lie within a series of thin strips in the m0-m1 /2 plane for different values of A0/m0. Consequently, this region of minimal supergravity parameter space makes a number of very precise predictions. It is found that light stops of mass down to 400 GeV or lower can exist consistent with all constraints. A signal analysis for this class of models at LHC run II is carried out and the dominant signals for their detection identified. Also computed is the minimum integrated luminosity for 5 σ discovery of the models analyzed. If supersymmetry is realized in this manner, the stop masses can be as low as 400 GeV or lower, and the mass gap between the lightest neutralino and lightest stop will be approximately 30-40 GeV. We have optimized the ATLAS signal regions specifically for stop searches in the parameter space and find that a stop with mass ˜375 GeV can be discovered with as little as ˜60 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at run II of the LHC; the integrated luminosity needed for discovery could be further reduced with more efficient signature analyses. The direct detection of dark matter in this class of models is also discussed. It is found that dark matter cross sections lie close to, but above, coherent neutrino scattering and would require multiton detectors such as LZ to see a signal of dark matter for this class of models.

  9. Improved UT1 Predictions through Low-Latency VLBI Observations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-14

    J Geod (2010) 84:399–402 DOI 10.1007/s00190-010-0372-8 SHORT NOTE Improved UT1 predictions through low-latency VLBI observations Brian Luzum · Axel...polar motion and nutation on UT1 determinations from VLBI Intensive obser- vations. J Geod 82(12):863. doi:10.1007/s00190-008-0212-2 Ray JR, Carter WE...Behrend D (2007) The International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS): current capabilities and future prospects. J Geod 81(6–8):479. doi

  10. ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas: A Target Observation Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

    2018-07-01

    Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas (socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Niño prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni˜no prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year, increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.

  11. SN 2016esw: a luminous Type II supernova observed within the first day after the explosion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jaeger, Thomas; Galbany, Lluis; Gutiérrez, Claudia P.; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Zheng, WeiKang; Brink, Thomas G.; Foley, Ryan J.; Sánchez, Sebastian F.; Channa, Sanyum; de Kouchkovsky, Maxime; Halevi, Goni; Kilpatrick, Charles D.; Kumar, Sahana; Molloy, Jeffrey; Pan, Yen-Chen; Ross, Timothy W.; Shivvers, Isaac; Siebert, Matthew R.; Stahl, Benjamin; Stegman, Samantha; Yunus, Sameen

    2018-05-01

    We present photometry, spectroscopy, and host-galaxy integral-field spectroscopy of the Type II supernova (SN) 2016esw in CGCG 229-009 from the first day after the explosion up to 120 days. Its light-curve shape is similar to that of a typical SN II; however, SN 2016esw is near the high-luminosity end of the SN II distribution, with a peak of M^maxV=-18.36 mag. The V-band light curve exhibits a long recombination phase for a SN II (similar to the long-lived plateau of SN 2004et). Considering the well-known relation between the luminosity and the plateau decline rate, SN 2016esw should have a V-band slope of ˜2.10 mag (100 days)-1; however, SN 2016esw has a substantially flatter plateau with a slope of 1.01 ± 0.26 mag (100 days)-1, perhaps indicating that interacting Type II supernovae are not useful for cosmology. At 19.5 days post-explosion, the spectrum presents a boxy Hα emission line with flat absorption profiles, suggesting interaction between the ejecta and circumstellar matter. Finally, based on the spectral properties, SN 2016esw shows similarities with the luminous and interacting SN 2007pk at early epochs, particularly in terms of observable line features and their evolution.

  12. Observed Parent-Child Relationship Quality Predicts Antibody Response to Vaccination in Children

    PubMed Central

    O'Connor, Thomas G; Wang, Hongyue; Moynihan, Jan A; Wyman, Peter A.; Carnahan, Jennifer; Lofthus, Gerry; Quataert, Sally A.; Bowman, Melissa; Burke, Anne S.; Caserta, Mary T

    2015-01-01

    Background Quality of the parent-child relationship is a robust predictor of behavioral and emotional health for children and adolescents; the application to physical health is less clear. Methods We investigated the links between observed parent-child relationship quality in an interaction task and antibody response to meningococcal conjugate vaccine in a longitudinal study of 164 ambulatory 10-11 year-old children; additional analyses examine associations with cortisol reactivity, BMI, and somatic illness. Results Observed negative/conflict behavior in the interaction task predicted a less robust antibody response to meningococcal serotype C vaccine in the child over a 6 month-period, after controlling for socio-economic and other covariates. Observer rated interaction conflict also predicted increased cortisol reactivity following the interaction task and higher BMI, but these factors did not account for the link between relationship quality and antibody response. Conclusions The results begin to document the degree to which a major source of child stress exposure, parent-child relationship conflict, is associated with altered immune system development in children, and may constitute an important public health consideration. PMID:25862953

  13. Type-II Weyl semimetals.

    PubMed

    Soluyanov, Alexey A; Gresch, Dominik; Wang, Zhijun; Wu, QuanSheng; Troyer, Matthias; Dai, Xi; Bernevig, B Andrei

    2015-11-26

    Fermions--elementary particles such as electrons--are classified as Dirac, Majorana or Weyl. Majorana and Weyl fermions had not been observed experimentally until the recent discovery of condensed matter systems such as topological superconductors and semimetals, in which they arise as low-energy excitations. Here we propose the existence of a previously overlooked type of Weyl fermion that emerges at the boundary between electron and hole pockets in a new phase of matter. This particle was missed by Weyl because it breaks the stringent Lorentz symmetry in high-energy physics. Lorentz invariance, however, is not present in condensed matter physics, and by generalizing the Dirac equation, we find the new type of Weyl fermion. In particular, whereas Weyl semimetals--materials hosting Weyl fermions--were previously thought to have standard Weyl points with a point-like Fermi surface (which we refer to as type-I), we discover a type-II Weyl point, which is still a protected crossing, but appears at the contact of electron and hole pockets in type-II Weyl semimetals. We predict that WTe2 is an example of a topological semimetal hosting the new particle as a low-energy excitation around such a type-II Weyl point. The existence of type-II Weyl points in WTe2 means that many of its physical properties are very different to those of standard Weyl semimetals with point-like Fermi surfaces.

  14. Genes associated with metabolic syndrome predict disease-free survival in stage II colorectal cancer patients. A novel link between metabolic dysregulation and colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Vargas, Teodoro; Moreno-Rubio, Juan; Herranz, Jesús; Cejas, Paloma; Molina, Susana; González-Vallinas, Margarita; Ramos, Ricardo; Burgos, Emilio; Aguayo, Cristina; Custodio, Ana B; Reglero, Guillermo; Feliu, Jaime; Ramírez de Molina, Ana

    2014-12-01

    Studies have recently suggested that metabolic syndrome and its components increase the risk of colorectal cancer. Both diseases are increasing in most countries, and the genetic association between them has not been fully elucidated. The objective of this study was to assess the association between genetic risk factors of metabolic syndrome or related conditions (obesity, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes mellitus type 2) and clinical outcome in stage II colorectal cancer patients. Expression levels of several genes related to metabolic syndrome and associated alterations were analysed by real-time qPCR in two equivalent but independent sets of stage II colorectal cancer patients. Using logistic regression models and cross-validation analysis with all tumour samples, we developed a metabolic syndrome-related gene expression profile to predict clinical outcome in stage II colorectal cancer patients. The results showed that a gene expression profile constituted by genes previously related to metabolic syndrome was significantly associated with clinical outcome of stage II colorectal cancer patients. This metabolic profile was able to identify patients with a low risk and high risk of relapse. Its predictive value was validated using an independent set of stage II colorectal cancer patients. The identification of a set of genes related to metabolic syndrome that predict survival in intermediate-stage colorectal cancer patients allows delineation of a high-risk group that may benefit from adjuvant therapy and avoid the toxic and unnecessary chemotherapy in patients classified as low risk. Our results also confirm the linkage between metabolic disorder and colorectal cancer and suggest the potential for cancer prevention and/or treatment by targeting these genes. Copyright © 2014 Federation of European Biochemical Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Validation of the LOD score compared with APACHE II score in prediction of the hospital outcome in critically ill patients.

    PubMed

    Khwannimit, Bodin

    2008-01-01

    The Logistic Organ Dysfunction score (LOD) is an organ dysfunction score that can predict hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to validate the performance of the LOD score compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score in a mixed intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary referral university hospital in Thailand. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24 month period from July1, 2004 until June 30, 2006. Discrimination was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H statistic. The overall fit of the model was evaluated by the Brier's score. Overall, 1,429 patients were enrolled during the study period. The mortality in the ICU was 20.9% and in the hospital was 27.9%. The median ICU and hospital lengths of stay were 3 and 18 days, respectively, for all patients. Both models showed excellent discrimination. The AUROC for the LOD and APACHE II were 0.860 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.838-0.882] and 0.898 (95% Cl = 0.879-0.917), respectively. The LOD score had perfect calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 10 (p = 0.44). However, the APACHE II had poor calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit H chi-2 = 75.69 (p < 0.001). Brier's score showed the overall fit for both models were 0.123 (95%Cl = 0.107-0.141) and 0.114 (0.098-0.132) for the LOD and APACHE II, respectively. Thus, the LOD score was found to be accurate for predicting hospital mortality for general critically ill patients in Thailand.

  16. Observing and Predicting Vog Dispersion from Hawai'i's K¯i lauea Volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Businger, Steven; Pattantyus, Andre; Horton, Keith; Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

    2014-05-01

    In 2014, the Kīlauea volcano on the Island of Hawai'i enters its 32st year of nearly continuous eruption. Since 1983, east rift SO2 emissions have ranged from <50 tonnes, during the periods of eruptive pause, to over 30,000 tonnes per day, during periods of enhanced activity. Emissions from Kīlauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risks to the Hawai'i community. The Vog Measurement and Prediction (VMAP) project was conceived to help mitigate the negative impacts of Kīlauea's emissions. To date, VMAP has achieved the following milestones: (i) created a custom application of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HY-SPLIT) model (Vog Model, hereafter) to produce real-time statewide forecasts of the concentration and dispersion of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate aerosol from Kīlauea volcano; (ii) developed an ultraviolet (UV) spectrometer array to provide near real-time volcanic gas emission rate measurements for use as input to the dispersion model; (iii) developed and deployed a stationary array of ambient SO2 and meteorological sensors to record the spatial characteristics of Kīlauea's gas plume in high temporal and spatial resolution for model verification; and (iv) developed web-based dissemination of observations and forecasts that provide guidance for safety officials to protect the public and raise public awareness of the potential hazards of volcanic emissions to respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation (http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/). Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model provide input to the vog model, with a statewide resolution of 3 km and a resolution of 1 km covering Hawai'i Island. Validation of the vog model predictions is accomplished with reference to data from Hawai'i State Department of Health ground-based Air Quality monitors. VMAP results show that this approach can provide useful guidance for the people of Hawai'i. An

  17. Functional connectivity between somatosensory and motor brain areas predicts individual differences in motor learning by observing.

    PubMed

    McGregor, Heather R; Gribble, Paul L

    2017-08-01

    Action observation can facilitate the acquisition of novel motor skills; however, there is considerable individual variability in the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. Here we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in brain function or structure can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Subjects underwent an anatomical MRI scan and resting-state fMRI scans to assess preobservation gray matter volume and preobservation resting-state functional connectivity (FC), respectively. On the following day, subjects observed a video of a tutor adapting her reaches to a novel force field. After observation, subjects performed reaches in a force field as a behavioral assessment of gains in motor learning resulting from observation. We found that individual differences in resting-state FC, but not gray matter volume, predicted postobservation gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state FC between left primary somatosensory cortex and bilateral dorsal premotor cortex, primary motor cortex, and primary somatosensory cortex and left superior parietal lobule was positively correlated with behavioral measures of postobservation motor learning. Sensory-motor resting-state FC can thus predict the extent to which observation will promote subsequent motor learning. NEW & NOTEWORTHY We show that individual differences in preobservation brain function can predict subsequent observation-related gains in motor learning. Preobservation resting-state functional connectivity within a sensory-motor network may be used as a biomarker for the extent to which observation promotes motor learning. This kind of information may be useful if observation is to be used as a way to boost neuroplasticity and sensory-motor recovery for patients undergoing rehabilitation for diseases that impair movement such as stroke. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  18. The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models

    EPA Science Inventory

    The second phase of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC-II) project evaluated common practices for developing and validating microarray-based models aimed at predicting toxicological and clinical endpoints. Thirty-six teams developed classifiers for 13 endpoints - some easy, som...

  19. Band-9 ALMA Observations of the [N II] 122 μm Line and FIR Continuum in Two High-z galaxies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferkinhoff, Carl; Brisbin, Drew; Nikola, Thomas; Stacey, Gordon J.; Sheth, Kartik; Hailey-Dunsheath, Steve; Falgarone, Edith

    2015-06-01

    We present Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) observations of two high-redshift systems (SMMJ02399-0136 at z 1 ˜ 2.8 and the Cloverleaf QSO at z 1 ˜ 2.5) in their rest-frame 122 μm continuum (ν sky ˜ 650 GHz, λ sky ˜ 450 μm) and [N ii] 122 μm line emission. The continuum observations with a synthesized beam of ˜0.″ 25 resolve both sources and recover the expected flux. The Cloverleaf is resolved into a partial Einstein ring, while SMMJ02399-0136 is unambiguously separated into two components: a point source associated with an active galactic nucleus and an extended region at the location of a previously identified dusty starburst. We detect the [N ii] line in both systems, though significantly weaker than our previous detections made with the first generation z (Redshift) and Early Universe Spectrometer. We show that this discrepancy is mostly explained if the line flux is resolved out due to significantly more extended emission and longer ALMA baselines than expected. Based on the ALMA observations we determine that ≥75% of the total [N ii] line flux in each source is produced via star formation. We use the [N ii] line flux that is recovered by ALMA to constrain the N/H abundance, ionized gas mass, hydrogen- ionizing photon rate, and star formation rate. In SMMJ02399-0136 we discover it contains a significant amount (˜1000 M ⊙ yr-1) of unobscured star formation in addition to its dusty starburst and argue that SMMJ02399-0136 may be similar to the Antennae Galaxies (Arp 244) locally. In total these observations provide a new look at two well-studied systems while demonstrating the power and challenges of Band-9 ALMA observations of high-z systems.

  20. Seeing High Velocity Clouds and Turbulent Mixing Layers in the Ultraviolet: Predictions from Hydrodynamic Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shelton, Robin L.

    2018-06-01

    High velocity clouds (HVCs) and turbulent mixing layers (TMLs) emit light across a wide range of wavelengths. In order to aid in the detection of their ultraviolet emission, we predict the UV emission line intensities emitted by C II, C III, C IV, N II, N III, N IV, N V, O III, O IV, O V, O VI, Si II, Si III, and Si IV in a variety of simulated HVCs and TMLs. These predictions are based on detailed hydrodynamic simulations made with the FLASH code and employing non-equilibrium ionization calculations for carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and silicon. The results are compared with FUSE and SPEAR/FIMS observations and with predictions from other models of hot/cool interfaces. We also present methods for scaling the results so that they can be applied to more or less dense environments.

  1. Mechanisms of Pb(II) sorption on a biogenic manganese oxide.

    PubMed

    Villalobos, Mario; Bargar, John; Sposito, Garrison

    2005-01-15

    Macroscopic Pb(II) uptake experiments and Pb L3-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy were combined to examine the mechanisms of Pb(II) sequestration by a biogenic manganese oxide and its synthetic analogues, all of which are layer-type manganese oxides (phyllomanganates). Relatively fast Pb(II) sorption was observed, as well as extremely high sorption capacities, suggesting Pb incorporation into the structure of the oxides. EXAFS analysis revealed similar uptake mechanisms regardless of the specific nature of the phyllomanganate, electrolyte background, total Pb(II) loading, or equilibration time. One Pb-O and two Pb-Mn shells at distances of 2.30, 3.53, and 3.74 A, respectively, were found, as well as a linear relationship between Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET; i.e., external) specific surface area and maximum Pb(II) sorption that also encompassed data from previous work. Both observations support the existence of two bonding mechanisms in Pb(II) sorption: a triple-corner-sharing complex in the interlayers above/ below cationic sheet vacancies (N theoretical = 6), and a double-corner-sharing complex on particle edges at exposed singly coordinated -O(H) bonds (N theoretical = 2). General prevalence of external over internal sorption is predicted, but the two simultaneous sorption mechanisms can account for the widely noted high affinity of manganese oxides for Pb(ll) in natural environments.

  2. Prediction of near-term increases in suicidal ideation in recently depressed patients with bipolar II disorder using intensive longitudinal data.

    PubMed

    Depp, Colin A; Thompson, Wesley K; Frank, Ellen; Swartz, Holly A

    2017-01-15

    There are substantial gaps in understanding near-term precursors of suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. We evaluated whether repeated patient-reported mood and energy ratings predicted subsequent near-term increases in suicide ideation. Secondary data were used from 86 depressed adults with bipolar II disorder enrolled in one of 3 clinical trials evaluating Interpersonal and Social Rhythm Therapy and/or pharmacotherapy as treatments for depression. Twenty weeks of daily mood and energy ratings and weekly Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) were obtained. Penalized regression was used to model trajectories of daily mood and energy ratings in the 3 week window prior to HDRS Suicide Item ratings. Participants completed an average of 68.6 (sd=52) days of mood and energy ratings. Aggregated across the sample, 22% of the 1675 HDRS Suicide Item ratings were non-zero, indicating presence of at least some suicidal thoughts. A cross-validated model with longitudinal ratings of energy and depressed mood within the three weeks prior to HDRS ratings resulted in an AUC of 0.91 for HDRS Suicide item >2, accounting for twice the variation when compared to baseline HDRS ratings. Energy, both at low and high levels, was an earlier predictor than mood. Data derived from a heterogeneous treated sample may not generalize to naturalistic samples. Identified suicidal behavior was absent from the sample so it could not be predicted. Prediction models coupled with intensively gathered longitudinal data may shed light on the dynamic course of near-term risk factors for suicidal ideation in bipolar II disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. EVALUATING THE PERFORMANCE OF REGIONAL-SCALE PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING SYSTEMS: PART II--OZONE PREDICTIONS. (R825260)

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this paper, the concept of scale analysis is applied to evaluate ozone predictions from two regional-scale air quality models. To this end, seasonal time series of observations and predictions from the RAMS3b/UAM-V and MM5/MAQSIP (SMRAQ) modeling systems for ozone were spectra...

  4. The role of type II spicules in the upper solar atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klimchuk, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    We examine the suggestion that most of the hot plasma in the Sun's corona comes from type II spicule material that is heated as it is ejected from the chromosphere. This contrasts with the traditional view that the corona is filled via chromospheric evaporation that results from coronal heating. We explore the observational consequences of a hypothetical spicule dominated corona and conclude from the large discrepancy between predicted and actual observations that only a small fraction of the hot plasma can be supplied by spicules (<2% in active regions, <5% in the quiet Sun, and <8% in coronal holes). The red-blue asymmetries of EUV spectral lines and the ratio of lower transition region (LTR;T ≤ 0.1 MK) to coronal emission measures are both predicted to be 2 orders of magnitude larger than observed. Furthermore, hot spicule material would cool dramatically by adiabatic expansion as it rises into the corona, so substantial coronal heating would be needed to maintain the high temperatures that are seen at all altitudes. We suggest that the corona contains a mixture of thin strands, some of which are populated by spicule injections, but most of which are not. A majority of the observed hot emission originates in non-spicule strands and is explained by traditional coronal heating models. However, since these models predict far too little emission from the LTR, most of this emission comes from the bulk of the spicule material that is only weakly heated and visible in He II (304 Å) as it falls back to the surface.

  5. TERT promoter mutations contribute to IDH mutations in predicting differential responses to adjuvant therapies in WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Xiao-Jie; Qin, Zhi-Yong; Hong, Christopher S.; Chen, Ling-Chao; Zhang, Xin; Zhao, Fang-Ping; Wang, Yin; Wang, Yang; Zhou, Liang-Fu; Zhuang, Zhengping; Ng, Ho-Keung; Yan, Hai; Yao, Yu; Mao, Ying

    2015-01-01

    IDH mutations frequently occur in WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas and have favorable prognosis compared to wild-type tumors. However, whether IDH mutations in WHO grade II and II diffuse gliomas predict enhanced sensitivity to adjuvant radiation (RT) or chemotherapy (CHT) is still being debated. Recent studies have identified recurrent mutations in the promoter region of telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) in gliomas. We previously demonstrated that TERT promoter mutations may be promising biomarkers in glioma survival prognostication when combined with IDH mutations. This study analyzed IDH and TERT promoter mutations in 295 WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas treated with or without adjuvant therapies to explore their impact on the sensitivity of tumors to genotoxic therapies. IDH mutations were found in 216 (73.2%) patients and TERT promoter mutations were found in 112 (38%) patients. In multivariate analysis, IDH mutations (p < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors for PFS and OS in patients receiving genotoxic therapies while TERT promoter mutations were not. In univariate analysis, IDH and TERT promoter mutations were not significant prognostic factors in patients who did not receive genotoxic therapies. Adjuvant RT and CHT were factors independently impacting PFS (RT p = 0.001, CHT p = 0.026) in IDH mutated WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas but not in IDH wild-type group. Univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated TERT promoter mutations further stratified IDH wild-type WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas into two subgroups with different responses to genotoxic therapies. Adjuvant RT and CHT were significant parameters influencing PFS in the IDH wt/TERT mut subgroup (RT p = 0.015, CHT p = 0.015) but not in the IDH wt/TERT wt subgroup. Our data demonstrated that IDH mutated WHO grade II and III diffuse gliomas had better PFS and OS than their IDH wild-type counterparts when genotoxic therapies were administered after surgery

  6. Ultraviolet observations of cool stars. IV - Intensities of Lyman-alpha and Mg II in epsilon Pegasi and epsilon Eridani, and line width-luminosity correlations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcclintock, W.; Linsky, J. L.; Henry, R. C.; Moos, H. W.

    1975-01-01

    A spectrometer on the Copernicus satellite has been used to confirm the existence of a line width-luminosity relation for the Ly-alpha and Mg II 2800-A chromospheric emission lines in K-type stars by observation of a K2 dwarf (epsilon Eri) and a K2 supergiant (epsilon Peg). Combined with previously reported observations of lines in three K giants (alpha Boo, alpha Tau, and beta Gem), the data are consistent with an identical dependence of line width on absolute visual magnitude for the Ca II K, Ly-alpha, and Mg II 2795-A lines. Surface fluxes of Ly-alpha, Mg II 2800-A, and O V 1218-A (upper limit) for epsilon Eri, and of Mg II 2800-A for epsilon Peg are also compared with values reported previously for the three giant stars.

  7. Observations on CFD Verification and Validation from the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshops

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrison, Joseph H.; Kleb, Bil; Vassberg, John C.

    2014-01-01

    The authors provide observations from the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshops that have spanned over a decade and from a recent validation experiment at NASA Langley. These workshops provide an assessment of the predictive capability of forces and moments, focused on drag, for transonic transports. It is very difficult to manage the consistency of results in a workshop setting to perform verification and validation at the scientific level, but it may be sufficient to assess it at the level of practice. Observations thus far: 1) due to simplifications in the workshop test cases, wind tunnel data are not necessarily the “correct” results that CFD should match, 2) an average of core CFD data are not necessarily a better estimate of the true solution as it is merely an average of other solutions and has many coupled sources of variation, 3) outlier solutions should be investigated and understood, and 4) the DPW series does not have the systematic build up and definition on both the computational and experimental side that is required for detailed verification and validation. Several observations regarding the importance of the grid, effects of physical modeling, benefits of open forums, and guidance for validation experiments are discussed. The increased variation in results when predicting regions of flow separation and increased variation due to interaction effects, e.g., fuselage and horizontal tail, point out the need for validation data sets for these important flow phenomena. Experiences with a recent validation experiment at NASA Langley are included to provide guidance on validation experiments.

  8. A magnetostructural study of linear NiII MnIII NiII, NiII CrIII NiII and triangular Ni(II)3 species containing (pyridine-2-aldoximato)nickel(II) unit as a building block.

    PubMed

    Weyhermüller, Thomas; Wagner, Rita; Khanra, Sumit; Chaudhuri, Phalguni

    2005-08-07

    Three trinuclear complexes, NiII MnIII NiII, NiII CrIII NiII and Ni(II)3 based on (pyridine-2-aldoximato)nickel(II) units are described. Two of them, and , contain metal-centers in linear arrangement, as is revealed by X-ray diffraction. Complex is a homonuclear complex in which the three nickel(II) centers are disposed in a triangular fashion. The compounds were characterized by various physical methods including cyclic voltammetric and variable-temperature (2-290 K) susceptibility measurements. Complexes and display antiferromagnetic exchange coupling of the neighbouring metal centers, while weak ferromagnetic spin exchange between the adjacent Ni II and Cr III ions in is observed. The experimental magnetic data were simulated by using appropriate models.

  9. Dynamical Characterization of Galaxies at z ˜ 4-6 via Tilted Ring Fitting to ALMA [C II] Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, G. C.; Carilli, C. L.; Shao, Y.; Wang, R.; Capak, P. L.; Pavesi, R.; Riechers, D. A.; Karim, A.; Neeleman, M.; Walter, F.

    2017-12-01

    Until recently, determining the rotational properties of galaxies in the early universe (z> 4, universe age < 1.5 Gyr) was impractical, with the exception of a few strongly lensed systems. Combining the high resolution and sensitivity of ALMA at (sub-)millimeter wavelengths with the typically high strength of the [C II] 158 μm emission line from galaxies and long-developed dynamical modeling tools raises the possibility of characterizing the gas dynamics in both extreme starburst galaxies and normal star-forming disk galaxies at z˜ 4{--}7. Using a procedure centered around GIPSY’s ROTCUR task, we have fit tilted ring models to some of the best available ALMA [C II] data of a small set of galaxies: the MS galaxies HZ9 and HZ10, the damped Lyα absorber host galaxy ALMA J0817+1351, the submm galaxies AzTEC/C159 and COSMOS J1000+0234, and the quasar host galaxy ULAS J1319+0950. This procedure directly derives rotation curves and dynamical masses as functions of radius for each object. In one case, we present evidence for a dark matter halo of { O }({10}11) {M}⊙ . We present an analysis of the possible velocity dispersions of two sources based on matching simulated observations to the integrated [C II] line profiles. Finally, we test the effects of observation resolution and sensitivity on our results. While the conclusions remain limited at the resolution and signal-to-noise ratios of these observations, the results demonstrate the viability of the modeling tools at high redshift, and the exciting potential for detailed dynamical analysis of the earliest galaxies, as ALMA achieves full observational capabilities.

  10. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B

    2007-07-09

    The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single modelmore » that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large

  11. An Optimal Current Observer for Predictive Current Controlled Buck DC-DC Converters

    PubMed Central

    Min, Run; Chen, Chen; Zhang, Xiaodong; Zou, Xuecheng; Tong, Qiaoling; Zhang, Qiao

    2014-01-01

    In digital current mode controlled DC-DC converters, conventional current sensors might not provide isolation at a minimized price, power loss and size. Therefore, a current observer which can be realized based on the digital circuit itself, is a possible substitute. However, the observed current may diverge due to the parasitic resistors and the forward conduction voltage of the diode. Moreover, the divergence of the observed current will cause steady state errors in the output voltage. In this paper, an optimal current observer is proposed. It achieves the highest observation accuracy by compensating for all the known parasitic parameters. By employing the optimal current observer-based predictive current controller, a buck converter is implemented. The converter has a convergently and accurately observed inductor current, and shows preferable transient response than the conventional voltage mode controlled converter. Besides, costs, power loss and size are minimized since the strategy requires no additional hardware for current sensing. The effectiveness of the proposed optimal current observer is demonstrated experimentally. PMID:24854061

  12. Mars Telescopic Observations Workshop II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sprague, A. L. (Editor); Bell, J. F., III (Editor)

    1997-01-01

    Mars Telescopic Observations Workshop E convened in Tucson, Arizona, in October 1997 by popular demand slightly over two years following the first successful Mars Telescopic Observations Workshop, held in Ithaca, New York, in August 1995. Experts on Mars from the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany, and the United States were present. Twenty-eight oral presentations were made and generous time allotted for useful discussions among participants. The goals of the workshop were to (1) summarize active groundbased observing programs and evaluate them in the context of current and future space missions to Mars, (2) discuss new technologies and instrumentation in the context of changing emphasis of observations and theory useful for groundbased observing, and (3) more fully understand capabilities of current and planned Mars missions to better judge which groundbased observations are and will continue to be of importance to our overall Mars program. In addition, the exciting new discoveries presented from the Pathfinder experiments and the progress report from the Mars Global Surveyor infused the participants with satisfaction for the successes achieved in the early stages of these missions. Just as exciting was the enthusiasm for new groundbased programs designed to address new challenges resulting from mission science results. We would like to thank the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as well as Dr. David Black, director of the Lunar and Planetary Institute, and the staff of the Institute's Publications and Program Services Department for providing logistical, administrative, and publication support services for this workshop.

  13. Demonstration of a viable quantitative theory for interplanetary type II radio bursts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schmidt, J. M., E-mail: jschmidt@physics.usyd.edu.au; Cairns, Iver H.

    Between 29 November and 1 December 2013 the two widely separated spacecraft STEREO A and B observed a long lasting, intermittent, type II radio burst for the extended frequency range ≈ 4 MHz to 30 kHz, including an intensification when the shock wave of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) reached STEREO A. We demonstrate for the first time our ability to quantitatively and accurately simulate the fundamental (F) and harmonic (H) emission of type II bursts from the higher corona (near 11 solar radii) to 1 AU. Our modeling requires the combination of data-driven three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations for the CME andmore » plasma background, carried out with the BATS-R-US code, with an analytic quantitative kinetic model for both F and H radio emission, including the electron reflection at the shock, growth of Langmuir waves and radio waves, and the radiations propagation to an arbitrary observer. The intensities and frequencies of the observed radio emissions vary hugely by factors ≈ 10{sup 6} and ≈ 10{sup 3}, respectively; the theoretical predictions are impressively accurate, being typically in error by less than a factor of 10 and 20 %, for both STEREO A and B. We also obtain accurate predictions for the timing and characteristics of the shock and local radio onsets at STEREO A, the lack of such onsets at STEREO B, and the z-component of the magnetic field at STEREO A ahead of the shock, and in the sheath. Very strong support is provided by these multiple agreements for the theory, the efficacy of the BATS-R-US code, and the vision of using type IIs and associated data-theory iterations to predict whether a CME will impact Earth’s magnetosphere and drive space weather events.« less

  14. Demonstration of a viable quantitative theory for interplanetary type II radio bursts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, J. M.; Cairns, Iver H.

    2016-03-01

    Between 29 November and 1 December 2013 the two widely separated spacecraft STEREO A and B observed a long lasting, intermittent, type II radio burst for the extended frequency range ≈ 4 MHz to 30 kHz, including an intensification when the shock wave of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) reached STEREO A. We demonstrate for the first time our ability to quantitatively and accurately simulate the fundamental (F) and harmonic (H) emission of type II bursts from the higher corona (near 11 solar radii) to 1 AU. Our modeling requires the combination of data-driven three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations for the CME and plasma background, carried out with the BATS-R-US code, with an analytic quantitative kinetic model for both F and H radio emission, including the electron reflection at the shock, growth of Langmuir waves and radio waves, and the radiations propagation to an arbitrary observer. The intensities and frequencies of the observed radio emissions vary hugely by factors ≈ 106 and ≈ 103, respectively; the theoretical predictions are impressively accurate, being typically in error by less than a factor of 10 and 20 %, for both STEREO A and B. We also obtain accurate predictions for the timing and characteristics of the shock and local radio onsets at STEREO A, the lack of such onsets at STEREO B, and the z-component of the magnetic field at STEREO A ahead of the shock, and in the sheath. Very strong support is provided by these multiple agreements for the theory, the efficacy of the BATS-R-US code, and the vision of using type IIs and associated data-theory iterations to predict whether a CME will impact Earth's magnetosphere and drive space weather events.

  15. The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

    2010-01-01

    The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

  16. Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening

    PubMed Central

    Autier, Philippe; Sullivan, Richard; Boyle, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Background The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. Patients and Methods The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. Results The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56–0.94) and 0.98 (0.77–1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78–1.01) and 0.90 (0.80–1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62–0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75–1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70–0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. Conclusions In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group. PMID:27100174

  17. Observed and Predicted Risk of Breast Cancer Death in Randomized Trials on Breast Cancer Screening.

    PubMed

    Autier, Philippe; Boniol, Mathieu; Smans, Michel; Sullivan, Richard; Boyle, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The role of breast screening in breast cancer mortality declines is debated. Screening impacts cancer mortality through decreasing the number of advanced cancers with poor diagnosis, while cancer treatment works through decreasing the case-fatality rate. Hence, reductions in cancer death rates thanks to screening should directly reflect reductions in advanced cancer rates. We verified whether in breast screening trials, the observed reductions in the risk of breast cancer death could be predicted from reductions of advanced breast cancer rates. The Greater New York Health Insurance Plan trial (HIP) is the only breast screening trial that reported stage-specific cancer fatality for the screening and for the control group separately. The Swedish Two-County trial (TCT)) reported size-specific fatalities for cancer patients in both screening and control groups. We computed predicted numbers of breast cancer deaths, from which we calculated predicted relative risks (RR) and (95% confidence intervals). The Age trial in England performed its own calculations of predicted relative risk. The observed and predicted RR of breast cancer death were 0.72 (0.56-0.94) and 0.98 (0.77-1.24) in the HIP trial, and 0.79 (0.78-1.01) and 0.90 (0.80-1.01) in the Age trial. In the TCT, the observed RR was 0.73 (0.62-0.87), while the predicted RR was 0.89 (0.75-1.05) if overdiagnosis was assumed to be negligible and 0.83 (0.70-0.97) if extra cancers were excluded. In breast screening trials, factors other than screening have contributed to reductions in the risk of breast cancer death most probably by reducing the fatality of advanced cancers in screening groups. These factors were the better management of breast cancer patients and the underreporting of breast cancer as the underlying cause of death. Breast screening trials should publish stage-specific fatalities observed in each group.

  18. Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

  19. Quasiparticle interference of surface states in the type-II Weyl semimetal WTe2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wenhan; Wu, Quansheng; Zhang, Lunyong; Cheong, Sang-Wook; Soluyanov, Alexey A.; Wu, Weida

    2017-10-01

    A topological Weyl semimetal (TWS) is a metal where low-energy excitations behave like Weyl fermions of high-energy physics. Recently, it was shown that, due to the lower symmetry of condensed-matter systems, they can realize two distinct types of Weyl fermions. The type-I Weyl fermion in a metal is formed by a linear crossing of two bands at a point in the crystalline momentum space—Brillouin zone. The second type of TWSs host type-II Weyl points appearing at the touching points of electron and hole pockets, which is a result of tilted linear dispersion. The type-II TWS was predicted to exist in several compounds, including WTe2. Several angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy studies of WTe2 were reported so far, having contradictory conclusions on the topological nature of observed Fermi arcs. In this paper, we report the results of spectroscopic imaging with a scanning tunneling microscope and first-principles calculations, establishing clear quasiparticle interference features of the surface states of WTe2. Our paper provides strong evidence for surface-state scattering. Although the surface Fermi arcs clearly are observed, it is still difficult to prove the existence of predicted type-II Weyl points in the bulk.

  20. High definition clouds and precipitation for climate prediction -results from a unified German research initiative on high resolution modeling and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauser, F.

    2013-12-01

    We present results from the German BMBF initiative 'High Definition Cloud and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction -HD(CP)2'. This initiative addresses most of the problems that are discussed in this session in one, unified approach: cloud physics, convection, boundary layer development, radiation and subgrid variability are approached in one organizational framework. HD(CP)2 merges both observation and high performance computing / model development communities to tackle a shared problem: how to improve the understanding of the most important subgrid-scale processes of cloud and precipitation physics, and how to utilize this knowledge for improved climate predictions. HD(CP)2 is a coordinated initiative to: (i) realize; (ii) evaluate; and (iii) statistically characterize and exploit for the purpose of both parameterization development and cloud / precipitation feedback analysis; ultra-high resolution (100 m in the horizontal, 10-50 m in the vertical) regional hind-casts over time periods (3-15 y) and spatial scales (1000-1500 km) that are climatically meaningful. HD(CP)2 thus consists of three elements (the model development and simulations, their observational evaluation and exploitation/synthesis to advance CP prediction) and its first three-year phase has started on October 1st 2012. As a central part of HD(CP)2, the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE) has been carried out in spring 2013. In this campaign, high resolution measurements with a multitude of instruments from all major centers in Germany have been carried out in a limited domain, to allow for unprecedented resolution and precision in the observation of microphysics parameters on a resolution that will allow for evaluation and improvement of ultra-high resolution models. At the same time, a local area version of the new climate model ICON of the Max Planck Institute and the German weather service has been developed that allows for LES-type simulations on high resolutions on

  1. Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ossó, Albert; Sutton, Rowan; Shaffrey, Len; Dong, Buwen

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation––the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern––is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March–April can predict the SEA pattern in July–August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

  2. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  3. Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilkin, John L.; Rosenfeld, Leslie; Allen, Arthur; Baltes, Rebecca; Baptista, Antonio; He, Ruoying; Hogan, Patrick; Kurapov, Alexander; Mehra, Avichal; Quintrell, Josie; Schwab, David; Signell, Richard; Smith, Jane

    2017-01-01

    This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

  4. Monolayer II-VI semiconductors: A first-principles prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Hui; Chen, Nian-Ke; Zhang, S. B.; Li, Xian-Bin

    A systematic study of 32 honeycomb monolayer II-VI semiconductors is carried out by first-principles methods. It appears that BeO, MgO, CaO, ZnO, CdO, CaS, SrS, SrSe, BaTe, and HgTe honeycomb monolayers have a good dynamic stability which is revealed by phonon calculations. In addition, from the molecular dynamic (MD) simulation of other unstable candidates, we also find two extra monolayers dynamically stable, which are tetragonal BaS and orthorhombic HgS. The honeycomb monolayers exist in form of either a planar perfect honeycomb or a low-buckled 2D layer, all of which possess a band gap and most of them are in the ultraviolet region. Interestingly, the dynamically stable SrSe has a gap near visible light, and displays exotic electronic properties with a flat top of the valence band, and hence has a strong spin polarization upon hole doping. The honeycomb HgTe has been reported to achieve a topological nontrivial phase under appropriate in-plane tensile strain and spin-orbital coupling (SOC). Some II-VI partners with less than 5% lattice mismatch may be used to design novel 2D heterojunction devices. If synthesized, potential applications of these 2D II-VI families could include optoelectronics, spintronics, and strong correlated electronics. Distinguished Student (DS) Program of APS FIP travel funds.

  5. Prediction and Observation of Electron Instabilities and Phase Space Holes Concentrated in the Lunar Plasma Wake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutchinson, Ian H.; Malaspina, David M.

    2018-05-01

    Recent theory and numerical simulation predicts that the wake of the solar wind flow past the Moon should be the site of electrostatic instabilities that give rise to electron holes. These play an important role in the eventual merging of the wake with the background solar wind. Analysis of measurements from the ARTEMIS satellites, orbiting the Moon at distances from 1.2 to 11 RM, detects holes highly concentrated in the wake, in agreement with prediction. The theory also predicts that the hole flux density observed should be hollow, peaking away from the wake axis. Observation statistics qualitatively confirm this hollowness, lending extra supporting evidence for the identification of their generation mechanism.

  6. Operational planning using Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, Alison; Kirtman, Benjamin; Harrison, Scott; Gorman, Joe

    2016-05-01

    The US Navy faces several limitations when planning operations in regard to forecasting environmental conditions. Currently, mission analysis and planning tools rely heavily on short-term (less than a week) forecasts or long-term statistical climate products. However, newly available data in the form of weather forecast ensembles provides dynamical and statistical extended-range predictions that can produce more accurate predictions if ensemble members can be combined correctly. Charles River Analytics is designing the Climatological Observations for Maritime Prediction and Analysis Support Service (COMPASS), which performs data fusion over extended-range multi-model ensembles, such as the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), to produce a unified forecast for several weeks to several seasons in the future. We evaluated thirty years of forecasts using machine learning to select predictions for an all-encompassing and superior forecast that can be used to inform the Navy's decision planning process.

  7. The Role Of Painleve II In Predicting New Liquid Crystal Self-Assembly Mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, William C.

    2018-01-01

    We prove the existence of a new class of solutions, called shadow kinks, of the Painleve II equation {d2 w}/{dz2}=2w3 +zw+α,} where {α < 0} is a constant. Shadow kinks are sign changing solutions which satisfy { w(z) ˜ -{√ {-z/2}} as z \\to - ∞} and w(z) ˜ -{α}/{z} as z \\to ∞. These solutions play a critical role in the prediction of a new class of topological defects, one dimensional shadow kinks and two dimensional shadow vortices, in light-matter interaction experiments on nematic liquid crystals. These new defects are physically important since it has recently been shown ( Wang et al. in Nat Mater 15:106-112, 2016) that topological defects are a "template for molecular self-assembly" in liquid crystals. Connections with the modified KdV equation are also discussed.

  8. Mono-component versus binary isotherm models for Cu(II) and Pb(II) sorption from binary metal solution by the green alga Pithophora oedogonia.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Dhananjay; Singh, Alpana; Gaur, J P

    2008-11-01

    The sorption of Cu(II) and Pb(II) by Pithophora markedly decreased as the concentration of the secondary metal ion, Cu(II) or Pb(II), increased in the binary metal solution. However, the test alga showed a greater affinity to sorb Cu(II) than Pb(II) from the binary metal solution. Mono-component Freundlich, Langmuir, Redlich-Peterson and Sips isotherms successfully predicted the sorption of Cu(II) and Pb(II) from both single and binary metal solutions. None of the tested binary sorption isotherms could realistically predict Cu(II) and Pb(II) sorption capacity and affinity of the test alga for the binary metal solutions of varying composition, which mono-component isotherms could very well accomplish. Hence, mono-component isotherm modeling at different concentrations of the secondary metal ion seems to be a better option than binary isotherms for metal sorption from binary metal solution.

  9. Diagnosing Pre-Service Science Teachers' Understanding of Chemistry Concepts by Using Computer-Mediated Predict-Observe-Explain Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sesn, Burcin Acar

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate pre-service science teachers' understanding of surface tension, cohesion and adhesion forces by using computer-mediated predict-observe-explain tasks. 22 third-year pre-service science teachers participated in this study. Three computer-mediated predict-observe-explain tasks were developed and applied…

  10. Experimental Observation of Anisotropic Adler-Bell-Jackiw Anomaly in Type-II Weyl Semimetal WTe1.98 Crystals at the Quasiclassical Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lv, Yang-Yang; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Bin-Bin; Deng, W. Y.; Yao, Shu-Hua; Chen, Y. B.; Zhou, Jian; Zhang, Shan-Tao; Lu, Ming-Hui; Zhang, Lei; Tian, Mingliang; Sheng, L.; Chen, Yan-Feng

    2017-03-01

    The asymmetric electron dispersion in type-II Weyl semimetal theoretically hosts anisotropic transport properties. Here, we observe the significant anisotropic Adler-Bell-Jackiw (ABJ) anomaly in the Fermi-level delicately adjusted WTe1.98 crystals. Quantitatively, CW , a coefficient representing the intensity of the ABJ anomaly along the a and b axis of WTe1.98 are 0.030 and 0.051 T-2 at 2 K, respectively. We found that the temperature-sensitive ABJ anomaly is attributed to a topological phase transition from a type-II Weyl semimetal to a trivial semimetal, which is verified by a first-principles calculation using experimentally determined lattice parameters at different temperatures. Theoretical electrical transport study reveals that the observation of an anisotropic ABJ along both the a and b axes in WTe1.98 is attributed to electrical transport in the quasiclassical regime. Our work may suggest that electron-doped WTe2 is an ideal playground to explore the novel properties in type-II Weyl semimetals.

  11. Hubble Space Telescope STIS Observations of the Wolf-Rayet Star HD 5980 in the Small Magellanic Cloud. II. The Interstellar Medium Components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koenigsberger, Gloria; Georgiev, Leonid; Peimbert, Manuel; Walborn, Nolan R.; Barbá, Rodolfo; Niemela, Virpi S.; Morrell, Nidia; Tsvetanov, Zlatan; Schulte-Ladbeck, Regina

    2001-01-01

    Observations of the interstellar and circumstellar absorption components obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) along the line of sight toward the Wolf-Rayet-luminous blue variable (LBV) system HD 5980 in the Small Magellanic Cloud are analyzed. Velocity components from C I, C I*, C II, C II*, C IV, N I, N V, O I, Mg II, Al II, Si II, Si II*, Si III, Si IV, S II, S III, Fe II, Ni II, Be I, Cl I, and CO are identified, and column densities estimated. The principal velocity systems in our data are (1) interstellar medium (ISM) components in the Galactic disk and halo (Vhel=1.1+/-3, 9+/-2 km s-1) (2) ISM components in the SMC (Vhel=+87+/-6, +110+/-6, +132+/-6, +158+/-8, +203+/-15 km s-1) (3) SMC supernova remnant SNR 0057-7226 components (Vhel=+312+/-3, +343+/-3, +33, +64 km s-1) (4) circumstellar (CS) velocity systems (Vhel=-1020, -840, -630, -530, -300 km s-1) and (5) a possible system at -53+/-5 km s-1 (seen only in some of the Si II lines and marginally in Fe II) of uncertain origin. The supernova remnant SNR 0057-7226 has a systemic velocity of +188 km s-1, suggesting that its progenitor was a member of the NGC 346 cluster. Our data allow estimates to be made of Te~40,000 K, ne~100 cm-3, N(H)~(4-12)×1018 cm-2 and a total mass between 400 and 1000 Msolar for the supernova remnant (SNR) shell. We detect C I absorption lines primarily in the +132 and +158 km s-1 SMC velocity systems. As a result of the LBV-type eruptions in HD 5980, a fast-wind/slow-wind circumstellar interaction region has appeared, constituting the earliest formation stages of a windblown H II bubble surrounding this system. Variations over a timescale of 1 year in this circumstellar structure are detected. Based on observations with the NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope, obtained at the Space Telescope Science Institute, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under NASA contract NAS 5-26555.

  12. THE LOCAL [C ii] 158 μ m EMISSION LINE LUMINOSITY FUNCTION

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hemmati, Shoubaneh; Yan, Lin; Capak, Peter

    We present, for the first time, the local [C ii] 158 μ m emission line luminosity function measured using a sample of more than 500 galaxies from the Revised Bright Galaxy Sample. [C ii] luminosities are measured from the Herschel PACS observations of the Luminous Infrared Galaxies (LIRGs) in the Great Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey and estimated for the rest of the sample based on the far-infrared (far-IR) luminosity and color. The sample covers 91.3% of the sky and is complete at S{sub 60μm} > 5.24 Jy. We calculate the completeness as a function of [C ii] line luminosity and distance, basedmore » on the far-IR color and flux densities. The [C ii] luminosity function is constrained in the range ∼10{sup 7–9} L{sub ⊙} from both the 1/ V{sub max} and a maximum likelihood methods. The shape of our derived [C ii] emission line luminosity function agrees well with the IR luminosity function. For the CO(1-0) and [C ii] luminosity functions to agree, we propose a varying ratio of [C ii]/CO(1-0) as a function of CO luminosity, with larger ratios for fainter CO luminosities. Limited [C ii] high-redshift observations as well as estimates based on the IR and UV luminosity functions are suggestive of an evolution in the [C ii] luminosity function similar to the evolution trend of the cosmic star formation rate density. Deep surveys using the Atacama Large Millimeter Array with full capability will be able to confirm this prediction.« less

  13. Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; Wood, Eric F.; Sheffield, Justin; Beck, Hylke E.

    2013-05-01

    Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1° resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km2) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions.

  14. IUE observations of pre-main-sequence stars. I - Mg II and Ca II resonance line fluxes for T Tauri stars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giampapa n, M. S.

    1981-01-01

    IUE satellite and Lick 3 m reflector image tube scanner measurements of the Mg II and Ca II resonance lines in a sample of T Tauri stars are the basis of a discussion of the Mg II h and k line emission and the Ca II H and K line emission, within the context of stellar chromospheres. Corroborative evidence is presented for the chromospheric origin of these resonance lines, and chromospheric radiative loss rates in the Mg II and Ca II resonance lines are derived. It is found that the degree of nonradiative heating present in the outer atmospheres of T Tauri stars generally exceeds that of the RS CVn systems, as well as the dMe stars and other active chromospheric dwarfs, and it is inferred that the surfaces of such pre-main sequence stars are covered by regions similar to solar plages. The mean chromospheric electron density of T Tauri stars is determined as 10 to the 11th/cu cm.

  15. Regge calculus and observations. II. Further applications.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Ruth M.; Ellis, G. F. R.

    1984-11-01

    The method, developed in an earlier paper, for tracing geodesies of particles and light rays through Regge calculus space-times, is applied to a number of problems in the Schwarzschild geometry. It is possible to obtain accurate predictions of light bending by taking sufficiently small Regge blocks. Calculations of perihelion precession, Thomas precession, and the distortion of a ball of fluid moving on a geodesic can also show good agreement with the analytic solution. However difficulties arise in obtaining accurate predictions for general orbits in these space-times. Applications to other problems in general relativity are discussed briefly.

  16. Investigation on the real-time prediction of ground motions using seismic records observed in deep boreholes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyakoshi, H.; Tsuno, S.

    2013-12-01

    The present method of the EEW system installed in the railway field of Japan predicts seismic ground motions based on the estimated earthquake information about epicentral distances and magnitudes using initial P-waves observed on the surface. In the case of local earthquakes beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, however, a method to directly predict seismic ground motions using P-waves observed in deep boreholes could issue EEWs more simply and surely. Besides, a method to predict seismic ground motions, using S-waves observed in deep boreholes and S-wave velocity structures beneath seismic stations, could show planar distributions of ground motions for train operation control areas in the aftermath of earthquakes. This information is available to decide areas in which the emergency inspection of railway structures should be performed. To develop those two methods, we investigated relationships between peak amplitudes on the surface and those in deep boreholes, using seismic records of KiK-net stations in the Kanto Basin. In this study, we used earthquake accelerograms observed in boreholes whose depths are deeper than the top face of Pre-Neogene basement and those on the surface at 12 seismic stations of KiK-net. We selected 243 local earthquakes whose epicenters are located around the Kanto Region. Those JMA magnitudes are in the range from 4.5 to 7.0. We picked the on-set of P-waves and S-waves using a vertical component and two horizontal components, respectively. Peak amplitudes of P-waves and S-waves were obtained using vertical components and vector sums of two horizontal components, respectively. We estimated parameters which represent site amplification factors beneath seismic stations, using peak amplitudes of S-waves observed in the deep borehole and those on the surface, to minimize the residuals between calculations by the theoretical equation and observations. Correlation coefficients between calculations and observations are high values in the range

  17. An evaluation of the accuracy of the ORange (Gen II) by comparing it to the IOLMaster in the prediction of postoperative refraction.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ming

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of ORange(®) Gen II (WaveTec Vision, Aliso Viejo, CA). The Surgical Suites, Honolulu, HI. The prospective 28 consecutive cataract surgical cases were selected from 85 cataract surgical cases between December 16, 2010 and February 24, 2011. With the same intraocular lens implantation, the predicted spherical equivalent refraction from IOLMaster(®) (Carl Zeiss AG, Oberkochen, Germany) and ORange Gen II were statistically compared and verified with 1-month postoperative manifest refraction. The data were put into IBM SPSS 19 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL) for analysis of variance. Pearson's correlation coefficient was also calculated to evaluate the correlation between the IOLMaster, ORange Gen II, and 1-month postoperative manifest refraction. There were no statistically significant differences in the mean spherical equivalent refraction from the IOLMaster, ORange Gen II, and 1-month postoperative manifest refraction (IOLMaster -0.40 diopters, P = 0.07; ORange Gen II -0.43 diopters, P = 0.16; 1-month refraction -0.41 diopters, P = 0.07). Pearson's correlation study demonstrated that all three were positively correlated (P < 0.05), with the strongest correlation between the ORange Gen II and 1-month postoperative manifest refraction (r = +0.6, P < 0.01). The ORange Gen II can be considered as an alternative method for intraocular lens selection for cataract patients.

  18. Predictive validity of the classroom strategies scale-observer form on statewide testing scores: an initial investigation.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Linda A; Fabiano, Gregory A; Dudek, Christopher M; Hsu, Louis

    2013-12-01

    The present study examined the validity of a teacher observation measure, the Classroom Strategies Scale--Observer Form (CSS), as a predictor of student performance on statewide tests of mathematics and English language arts. The CSS is a teacher practice observational measure that assesses evidence-based instructional and behavioral management practices in elementary school. A series of two-level hierarchical generalized linear models were fitted to data of a sample of 662 third- through fifth-grade students to assess whether CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy and Behavioral Management Strategy scale discrepancy scores (i.e., ∑ |recommended frequency--frequency ratings|) predicted statewide mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores when percentage of minority students in schools was controlled. Results indicated that the Instructional Strategy scale discrepancy scores significantly predicted mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores: Relatively larger discrepancies on observer ratings of what teachers did versus what should have been done were associated with lower proficiency scores. Results offer initial evidence of the predictive validity of the CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy discrepancy scores on student academic outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun

    2017-04-01

    Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO 2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): an International Science Mission Using a Cubesat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spann, James; Swenson, Charles; Durao, Otavio; Loures, Luis; Heelis, Rod; Bishop, Rebecca; Le, Guan; Abdu, Mangalathayil; Krause, Linda; Fry, Craig; hide

    2017-01-01

    The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat mission to address the compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at a single site, within a single longitude sector, from Jicamarca, Peru. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to enhance understanding between geography and magnetic geometry. SPORT is an international partnership between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA), and encouraged by U.S. Southern Command. This talk will present an overview of the SPORT mission, observation strategy, and science objectives to improve predictions of ionospheric disturbances that affect radio propagation of telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator.

  1. The novel EuroSCORE II algorithm predicts the hospital mortality of thoracic aortic surgery in 461 consecutive Japanese patients better than both the original additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithms.

    PubMed

    Nishida, Takahiro; Sonoda, Hiromichi; Oishi, Yasuhisa; Tanoue, Yoshihisa; Nakashima, Atsuhiro; Shiokawa, Yuichi; Tominaga, Ryuji

    2014-04-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II was developed to improve the overestimation of surgical risk associated with the original (additive and logistic) EuroSCOREs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance of the EuroSCORE II by comparing its performance with that of the original EuroSCOREs in Japanese patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. We have calculated the predicted mortalities according to the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms in 461 patients who underwent surgery on the thoracic aorta during a period of 20 years (1993-2013). The actual in-hospital mortality rates in the low- (additive EuroSCORE of 3-6), moderate- (7-11) and high-risk (≥11) groups (followed by overall mortality) were 1.3, 6.2 and 14.4% (7.2% overall), respectively. Among the three different risk groups, the expected mortality rates were 5.5 ± 0.6, 9.1 ± 0.7 and 13.5 ± 0.2% (9.5 ± 0.1% overall) by the additive EuroSCORE algorithm, 5.3 ± 0.1, 16 ± 0.4 and 42.4 ± 1.3% (19.9 ± 0.7% overall) by the logistic EuroSCORE algorithm and 1.6 ± 0.1, 5.2 ± 0.2 and 18.5 ± 1.3% (7.4 ± 0.4% overall) by the EuroSCORE II algorithm, indicating poor prediction (P < 0.0001) of the mortality in the high-risk group, especially by the logistic EuroSCORE. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II algorithms were 0.6937, 0.7169 and 0.7697, respectively. Thus, the mortality expected by the EuroSCORE II more closely matched the actual mortality in all three risk groups. In contrast, the mortality expected by the logistic EuroSCORE overestimated the risks in the moderate- (P = 0.0002) and high-risk (P < 0.0001) patient groups. Although all of the original EuroSCOREs and EuroSCORE II appreciably predicted the surgical mortality for thoracic aortic surgery in Japanese patients, the EuroSCORE II best predicted the mortalities in all

  2. Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

  3. Rational Clinical Experiment: Assessing Prior Probability and Its Impact on the Success of Phase II Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Halperin, Daniel M.; Lee, J. Jack; Dagohoy, Cecile Gonzales; Yao, James C.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Despite a robust clinical trial enterprise and encouraging phase II results, the vast minority of oncologic drugs in development receive regulatory approval. In addition, clinicians occasionally make therapeutic decisions based on phase II data. Therefore, clinicians, investigators, and regulatory agencies require improved understanding of the implications of positive phase II studies. We hypothesized that prior probability of eventual drug approval was significantly different across GI cancers, with substantial ramifications for the predictive value of phase II studies. Methods We conducted a systematic search of phase II studies conducted between 1999 and 2004 and compared studies against US Food and Drug Administration and National Cancer Institute databases of approved indications for drugs tested in those studies. Results In all, 317 phase II trials were identified and followed for a median of 12.5 years. Following completion of phase III studies, eventual new drug application approval rates varied from 0% (zero of 45) in pancreatic adenocarcinoma to 34.8% (24 of 69) for colon adenocarcinoma. The proportion of drugs eventually approved was correlated with the disease under study (P < .001). The median type I error for all published trials was 0.05, and the median type II error was 0.1, with minimal variation. By using the observed median type I error for each disease, phase II studies have positive predictive values ranging from less than 1% to 90%, depending on primary site of the cancer. Conclusion Phase II trials in different GI malignancies have distinct prior probabilities of drug approval, yielding quantitatively and qualitatively different predictive values with similar statistical designs. Incorporation of prior probability into trial design may allow for more effective design and interpretation of phase II studies. PMID:26261263

  4. Solar Spectral Irradiance Variability in Cycle 24: Model Predictions and OMI Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marchenko, S.; DeLand, M.; Lean, J.

    2016-01-01

    Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265-500 nanometers during the ongoing Cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the GOME-2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment - 2) and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) instruments and find fair-to-excellent agreement between the observations and predictions of the NRLSSI2 (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance - post SORCE) and SATIRE-S (the Naval Research Laboratory's Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era) models.

  5. KECK II OBSERVATIONS OF HEMISPHERICAL DIFFERENCES IN H{sub 2}O{sub 2} ON EUROPA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hand, K. P.; Brown, M. E., E-mail: khand@jpl.nasa.gov

    We present results from Keck II observations of Europa over four consecutive nights using the near-infrared spectrograph. Spectra were collected in the 3.14-4.0 {mu}m range, enabling detection and monitoring of the 3.5 {mu}m feature due to hydrogen peroxide. Galileo Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer results first revealed hydrogen peroxide on Europa in the anti-Jovian region of the leading hemisphere at a percent by number abundance of 0.13% {+-} 0.07% relative to water. We find comparable results for the two nights over which we observed the leading hemisphere. Significantly, we observed a small amount of hydrogen peroxide ({approx}0.04%) during observations of Europa's anti-Jovianmore » and sub-Jovian hemispheres. Almost no hydrogen peroxide was detected during observations of just the trailing hemisphere. We conclude that the Galileo observations likely represent the maximum hydrogen peroxide concentration, the exception potentially being the cold water ice regions of the poles, which are not readily observable from the ground. Our mapping of the peroxide abundance across Europa requires revisions to previous estimates for Europa's global surface abundance of oxidants and leads to a reduction in the total oxidant delivery expected for the subsurface ocean if an exchange of surface material with the ocean occurs.« less

  6. Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys

    PubMed Central

    Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S.; Hyde, Luke W.

    2016-01-01

    Background Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Methods Multi-method data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N=310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10–12 years old. Results Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10–12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10–12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10–12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Conclusions Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late-childhood. PMID:27917472

  7. Comparison of anthropometric indices (body mass index, waist circumference, waist to hip ratio and waist to height ratio) in predicting risk of type II diabetes in the population of Yazd, Iran.

    PubMed

    Mirzaei, Masoud; Khajeh, Mohammad

    2018-04-13

    The purpose of this study was to determine the best anthropometric index and calculate the cut-off point for each anthropometric index in predicting the risk of type II diabetes in the population of Yazd city in Iran. The present analytical cross-sectional study was performed using the data from Yazd Health Study (YaHS) with a sample size of 9293. All required data including anthropometric indices BMI, WC, WHR, and WHtR were extracted from the YAHS questionnaire. The ROC curve was employed to compare the predictive power of each anthropometric index in the risk of developing the type II diabetes. WHtR in both genders had better predictive power for the risk of type II diabetes (AUC = 0.692 for males and AUC = 0.708 for females), and BMI showed a weaker predictive power (AUC = 0.603 for males and AUC = 0.632 for females), WC and WHR also revealed similar predictive power in the risk of type II diabetes. The cut-off point of BMI for predicting the risk of diabetes was almost identical in both genders (26.2 in males and 25.9 in females), the cut-off point of WC (91 cm), and WHtR (0.56) in males was lower than in the females (96 cm for WC and 0.605 for WHtR). The cut-off point of WHR in males (0.939) was higher than in females (0.892). The WHtR showed the best predictor of diabetes risk compared to other indices, and the BMI was the weakest predictor of the risk for diabetes. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Building and validating a prediction model for paediatric type 1 diabetes risk using next generation targeted sequencing of class II HLA genes.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Lue Ping; Carlsson, Annelie; Larsson, Helena Elding; Forsander, Gun; Ivarsson, Sten A; Kockum, Ingrid; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Marcus, Claude; Persson, Martina; Samuelsson, Ulf; Örtqvist, Eva; Pyo, Chul-Woo; Bolouri, Hamid; Zhao, Michael; Nelson, Wyatt C; Geraghty, Daniel E; Lernmark, Åke

    2017-11-01

    It is of interest to predict possible lifetime risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in young children for recruiting high-risk subjects into longitudinal studies of effective prevention strategies. Utilizing a case-control study in Sweden, we applied a recently developed next generation targeted sequencing technology to genotype class II genes and applied an object-oriented regression to build and validate a prediction model for T1D. In the training set, estimated risk scores were significantly different between patients and controls (P = 8.12 × 10 -92 ), and the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was 0.917. Using the validation data set, we validated the result with AUC of 0.886. Combining both training and validation data resulted in a predictive model with AUC of 0.903. Further, we performed a "biological validation" by correlating risk scores with 6 islet autoantibodies, and found that the risk score was significantly correlated with IA-2A (Z-score = 3.628, P < 0.001). When applying this prediction model to the Swedish population, where the lifetime T1D risk ranges from 0.5% to 2%, we anticipate identifying approximately 20 000 high-risk subjects after testing all newborns, and this calculation would identify approximately 80% of all patients expected to develop T1D in their lifetime. Through both empirical and biological validation, we have established a prediction model for estimating lifetime T1D risk, using class II HLA. This prediction model should prove useful for future investigations to identify high-risk subjects for prevention research in high-risk populations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Multi-metals column adsorption of lead(II), cadmium(II) and manganese(II) onto natural bentonite clay.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Jock Asanja; Surajudeen, Abdulsalam; Aliyu, El-Nafaty Usman; Omeiza, Aroke Umar; Zaini, Muhammad Abbas Ahmad

    2017-10-01

    The present work was aimed at evaluating the multi-metals column adsorption of lead(II), cadmium(II) and manganese(II) ions onto natural bentonite. The bentonite clay adsorbent was characterized for physical and chemical properties using X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, Brunauer-Emmett-Teller surface area and cation exchange capacity. The column performance was evaluated using adsorbent bed height of 5.0 cm, with varying influent concentrations (10 mg/L and 50 mg/L) and flow rates (1.4 mL/min and 2.4 mL/min). The result shows that the breakthrough time for all metal ions ranged from 50 to 480 minutes. The maximum adsorption capacity was obtained at initial concentration of 10 mg/L and flow rate of 1.4 mL/min, with 2.22 mg/g of lead(II), 1.71 mg/g of cadmium(II) and 0.37 mg/g of manganese(II). The order of metal ions removal by natural bentonite is lead(II) > cadmium(II) > manganese(II). The sorption performance and the dynamic behaviour of the column were predicted using Adams-Bohart, Thomas, and Yoon-Nelson models. The linear regression analysis demonstrated that the Thomas and Yoon-Nelson models fitted well with the column adsorption data for all metal ions. The natural bentonite was effective for the treatment of wastewater laden with multi-metals, and the process parameters obtained from this work can be used at the industrial scale.

  10. Continuous thermographic observation may predict extravasation in chemotherapy-treated patients.

    PubMed

    Oya, Maiko; Murayama, Ryoko; Oe, Makoto; Yabunaka, Koichi; Tanabe, Hidenori; Takahashi, Toshiaki; Matsui, Yuko; Otomo, Eiko; Komiyama, Chieko; Sanada, Hiromi

    2017-06-01

    Extravasation, or leakage of vesicant drugs into subcutaneous tissues, causes serious complications such as induration and necrosis in chemotherapy-treated patients. As macroscopic observation may overlook symptoms during infusion, we focused on skin temperature changes at puncture sites and studied thermographic patterns related to induration or necrosis caused by extravasation. Outpatients undergoing chemotherapy using peripheral intravenous catheters were enrolled in this prospective observational study. We filmed and classified infrared thermography movies of puncture sites during infusion; ultrasonography was also utilized at puncture sites to observe the subcutaneous condition. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the association of thermographic patterns with induration or necrosis observed on the next chemotherapy day. Differences in patient characteristics, puncture sites, and infusions were analyzed by Mann-Whitney's U test and Fisher's exact test according to thermographic patterns. Eight patients developed induration among 74 observations in 62 patients. Among six thermographic patterns, a fan-shaped lower temperature area gradually spreading from the puncture site (fan at puncture site) was significantly associated with induration. Ultrasonography revealed that catheters of patients with fan at puncture site remained in the vein at the end of infusion, indicating that the infusion probably leaked from the puncture site. Patients with fan at puncture site had no significant differences in characteristics and infusion conditions compared with those with the other five thermographic patterns. We determined that fan at puncture site was related to induration caused by extravasation. Continuous thermographic observation may enable us to predict adverse events of chemotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Watching novice action degrades expert motor performance: Causation between action production and outcome prediction of observed actions by humans

    PubMed Central

    Ikegami, Tsuyoshi; Ganesh, Gowrishankar

    2014-01-01

    Our social skills are critically determined by our ability to understand and appropriately respond to actions performed by others. However despite its obvious importance, the mechanisms enabling action understanding in humans have remained largely unclear. A popular but controversial belief is that parts of the motor system contribute to our ability to understand observed actions. Here, using a novel behavioral paradigm, we investigated this belief by examining a causal relation between action production, and a component of action understanding - outcome prediction, the ability of a person to predict the outcome of observed actions. We asked dart experts to watch novice dart throwers and predict the outcome of their throws. We modulated the feedbacks provided to them, caused a specific improvement in the expert's ability to predict watched actions while controlling the other experimental factors, and exhibited that a change (improvement) in their outcome prediction ability results in a progressive and proportional deterioration in the expert's own darts performance. This causal relationship supports involvement of the motor system in outcome prediction by humans of actions observed in others. PMID:25384755

  12. Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations

    PubMed Central

    Valerio, Laura; North, Ace; Collins, C. Matilda; Mumford, John D.; Facchinelli, Luca; Spaccapelo, Roberta; Benedict, Mark Q.

    2016-01-01

    The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks. PMID:27669312

  13. ASDIR-II. Volume II. Program Description

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-01-01

    in ASDIR. INPUT: Engine description, gas properties and case definition (See ASDIR-II, Volume I, User’s Manual). OIWPUT: Primarily the information...conditions Special surface cooling flow conditions Exhaust system surface properties The predictions provided by the progi un for the combination of a...nonattenuated by the atmosphere Optional exhaust system information which can be requested from the program is: Internal fluid flow properties Surface

  14. IRVE-II Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    O'Keefe, Stephen A.; Bose, David M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA s Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) II successfully demonstrated an inflatable aerodynamic decelerator after being launched aboard a sounding rocket from Wallops Flight Facility (WFF). Preliminary day of flight data compared well with pre-flight Monte Carlo analysis, and a more complete trajectory reconstruction performed with an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach followed. The reconstructed trajectory and comparisons to an attitude solution provided by NASA Sounding Rocket Operations Contract (NSROC) personnel at WFF are presented. Additional comparisons are made between the reconstructed trajectory and pre and post-flight Monte Carlo trajectory predictions. Alternative observations of the trajectory are summarized which leverage flight accelerometer measurements, the pre-flight aerodynamic database, and on-board flight video. Finally, analysis of the payload separation and aeroshell deployment events are presented. The flight trajectory is reconstructed to fidelity sufficient to assess overall project objectives related to flight dynamics and overall, IRVE-II flight dynamics are in line with expectations

  15. No cataclysmic variables missing: higher merger rate brings into agreement observed and predicted space densities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belloni, Diogo; Schreiber, Matthias R.; Zorotovic, Mónica; Iłkiewicz, Krystian; Hurley, Jarrod R.; Giersz, Mirek; Lagos, Felipe

    2018-06-01

    The predicted and observed space density of cataclysmic variables (CVs) have been for a long time discrepant by at least an order of magnitude. The standard model of CV evolution predicts that the vast majority of CVs should be period bouncers, whose space density has been recently measured to be ρ ≲ 2 × 10-5 pc-3. We performed population synthesis of CVs using an updated version of the Binary Stellar Evolution (BSE) code for single and binary star evolution. We find that the recently suggested empirical prescription of consequential angular momentum loss (CAML) brings into agreement predicted and observed space densities of CVs and period bouncers. To progress with our understanding of CV evolution it is crucial to understand the physical mechanism behind empirical CAML. Our changes to the BSE code are also provided in details, which will allow the community to accurately model mass transfer in interacting binaries in which degenerate objects accrete from low-mass main-sequence donor stars.

  16. A scoring system based on artificial neural network for predicting 10-year survival in stage II A colon cancer patients after radical surgery.

    PubMed

    Peng, Jian-Hong; Fang, Yu-Jing; Li, Cai-Xia; Ou, Qing-Jian; Jiang, Wu; Lu, Shi-Xun; Lu, Zhen-Hai; Li, Pei-Xing; Yun, Jing-Ping; Zhang, Rong-Xin; Pan, Zhi-Zhong; Wan, De Sen

    2016-04-19

    Nearly 20% patients with stage II A colon cancer will develop recurrent disease post-operatively. The present study aims to develop a scoring system based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting 10-year survival outcome. The clinical and molecular data of 117 stage II A colon cancer patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were used for training set and test set; poor pathological grading (score 49), reduced expression of TGFBR2 (score 33), over-expression of TGF-β (score 45), MAPK (score 32), pin1 (score 100), β-catenin in tumor tissue (score 50) and reduced expression of TGF-β in normal mucosa (score 22) were selected as the prognostic risk predictors. According to the developed scoring system, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups, which were supposed with higher, moderate and lower risk levels. As a result, for the 3 subgroups, the 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 16.7%, 62.9% and 100% (P < 0.001); and the 10-year disease free survival (DFS) rates were 16.7%, 61.8% and 98.8% (P < 0.001) respectively. It showed that this scoring system for stage II A colon cancer could help to predict long-term survival and screen out high-risk individuals for more vigorous treatment.

  17. Optimization of Stripping Voltammetric Sensor by a Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network for the Accurate Determination of Pb(II) in the Presence of Cd(II).

    PubMed

    Zhao, Guo; Wang, Hui; Liu, Gang; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2016-09-21

    An easy, but effective, method has been proposed to detect and quantify the Pb(II) in the presence of Cd(II) based on a Bi/glassy carbon electrode (Bi/GCE) with the combination of a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) without further electrode modification. The effects of Cd(II) in different concentrations on stripping responses of Pb(II) was studied. The results indicate that the presence of Cd(II) will reduce the prediction precision of a direct calibration model. Therefore, a two-input and one-output BP-ANN was built for the optimization of a stripping voltammetric sensor, which considering the combined effects of Cd(II) and Pb(II) on the SWASV detection of Pb(II) and establishing the nonlinear relationship between the stripping peak currents of Pb(II) and Cd(II) and the concentration of Pb(II). The key parameters of the BP-ANN and the factors affecting the SWASV detection of Pb(II) were optimized. The prediction performance of direct calibration model and BP-ANN model were tested with regard to the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), average relative error (ARE), and correlation coefficient. The results proved that the BP-ANN model exhibited higher prediction accuracy than the direct calibration model. Finally, a real samples analysis was performed to determine trace Pb(II) in some soil specimens with satisfactory results.

  18. A Cavity of Large Grains in the Disk around the Group II Herbig Ae/Be Star HD 142666

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, A. E.; Macías, E.; Espaillat, C. C.; Zhang, K.; Calvet, N.; Robinson, C.

    2018-06-01

    Herbig Ae/Be (HAeBe) stars have been classified into Group I or Group II, and were initially thought to be flared and flat disks, respectively. Several Group I sources have been shown to have large gaps, suggesting ongoing planet formation, while no large gaps have been found in the disks of Group II sources. We analyzed the disk around the Group II source, HD 142666, using irradiated accretion disk modeling of the broadband spectral energy distribution along with the 1.3 mm spatial brightness distribution traced by Atacama Large Millimeter and Submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations. Our model reproduces the available data, predicting a high degree of dust settling in the disk, which is consistent with the Group II classification of HD 142666. In addition, the observed visibilities and synthesized image could only be reproduced when including a depletion of large grains out to ∼ 16 au in our disk model, although the ALMA observations did not have enough angular resolution to fully resolve the inner parts of the disk. These results may suggest that some disks around Group II HAeBe stars have cavities of large grains as well. Further ALMA observations of Group II sources are needed to discern how commonly cavities occur in this class of objects, as well as to reveal their possible origins.

  19. VizieR Online Data Catalog: SOFI and ISOCAM observations of Cha II (Persi+, 2003)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Persi, P.; Marenzi, A. R.; Gomez, M.; Olofsson, G.

    2003-01-01

    A region of approximately 28'x26' of Cha II, centered at RA = 13h 00min 47s, DE = -77° 06' 09" (2000), was surveyed with ISOCAM in raster mode at LW2(5-8.5μm) (TDT N.11500619) and LW3(12-18μm)(TDT N.11500620). All the frames were observed with a pixel field of view (PFOV) of 6", intrinsic integration time Tint=2.1s and ~15s integration time per sky position. The total integration time was of 4472 s and 4474 s for LW2 and LW3, respectively. We obtained J, H, and Ks images of the central part of Cha II covering an area of4.9'x4.9' with the SOFI near-IR camera at the ESO 3.58m New Technology Telescope (NTT) on the night of April 28, 2000 under very good seeing conditions (~0.3") SOFI uses a 1024x1024 pixel HgCdTe array and provides a field of view of 299"x299" with a scale of 0.292"/pix. (2 data files).

  20. Domain structure in biphenyl incommensurate phase II observed by electron paramagnetic resonance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Véron, A.; Emery, J.; Spiesser, M.

    1994-11-01

    The domain structure in incommensurate phase II of single biphenyl crystal has been observed by investigations of the optically excited states of the Electronic Paramagnetic Resonance (E.P.R.) deuterated naphthalene molecular probes which substitute biphenyl molecules. Our results confirm that this phase is a 1q bi-domain one. The analysis of the spectra obtained in X band (9.5 GHz) experiments, in relation with the spin Hamiltonian parameter properties permits us to show that the E.P.R. probe rotates around a direction perpendicular to its long axis while the biphenyl molecule undergoes a twist movement around this axis. They also account for a regime which is like a “ multi-soliton " regime while the modulation is a plane wave one in the pure single crystal. The two molecules of the high temperature cell do not exactly experience the saure displacement field in the incommensurate phase and consequently the two domains can be distinguished. The spin Hamiltonian parameters which characterize the E.P.R. probes have been determined in the incommensurate phase II of biphenyl. La structure en domaines de la phase II du biphényle est mise en évidence par les investigations dans les états photo-excités des molécules de naphtalène deutéré, utilisées comme sondes de Résonance Paramagnétique Electronique, se substituant de manière diluée dans le mono-cristal de biphényle. Ceci confirme que cette phase est 1q bi-domaine. L'analyse des spectres obtenus dans des expériences en bande X (9.5 GHz) en relation avec les propriétés de l'hamiltonien de spin permet de montrer que la sonde moléculaire tourne autour d'une direction perpendiculaire à son grand axe alors que la molécule de biphényle subit un mouvement de twist autour de cet axe. Les résultats montrent que ces sondes rendent compte d'un régime qui est comme un régime “ multi-solitons " alors que la modulation est plane dans le cristal pur. Les deux molécules sondes de la cellule

  1. Satellite Observations and Chemistry Climate Models - A Meandering Path Towards Better Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Douglass, Anne R.

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge of the chemical and dynamical processes that control the stratospheric ozone layer has grown rapidly since the 1970s, when ideas that depletion of the ozone layer due to human activity were put forth. The concept of ozone depletion due to anthropogenic chlorine increase is simple; quantification of the effect is much more difficult. The future of stratospheric ozone is complicated because ozone is expected to increase for two reasons: the slow decrease in anthropogenic chlorine due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and stratospheric cooling caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Prediction of future ozone levels requires three-dimensional models that represent physical, photochemical and radiative processes, i.e., chemistry climate models (CCMs). While laboratory kinetic and photochemical data are necessary inputs for a CCM, atmospheric measurements are needed both to reveal physical and chemical processes and for comparison with simulations to test the conceptual model that CCMs represent. Global measurements are available from various satellites including but not limited to the LIMS and TOMS instruments on Nimbus 7 (1979 - 1993), and various instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2005), Envisat (2002 - ongoing), Sci-Sat (2003 - ongoing) and Aura (2004 - ongoing). Every successful satellite instrument requires a physical concept for the measurement, knowledge of physical chemical properties of the molecules to be measured, and stellar engineering to design an instrument that will survive launch and operate for years with no opportunity for repair but providing enough information that trend information can be separated from any instrument change. The on-going challenge is to use observations to decrease uncertainty in prediction. This talk will focus on two applications. The first considers transport diagnostics and implications for prediction of the eventual demise of the Antarctic ozone hole

  2. Solid Phase Extraction of Trace Al(III), Fe(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) Ions in Beverages on Functionalized Polymer Microspheres Prior to Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometric Determinations.

    PubMed

    Berber, Hale; Alpdogan, Güzin

    2017-01-01

    In this study, poly(glycidyl methacrylate-methyl methacrylate-divinylbenzene) was synthesized in the form of microspheres, and then functionalized by 2-aminobenzothiazole ligand. The sorption properties of these functionalized microspheres were investigated for separation, preconcentration and determination of Al(III), Fe(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The optimum pH values for quantitative sorption were 2 - 4, 5 - 8, 6 - 8, 4 - 6, 2 - 6 and 2 - 3 for Al(III), Fe(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II), respectively, and also the highest sorption capacity of the functionalized microspheres was found to be for Cu(II) with the value of 1.87 mmol g -1 . The detection limits (3σ; N = 6) obtained for the studied metals in the optimal conditions were observed in the range of 0.26 - 2.20 μg L -1 . The proposed method was successfully applied to different beverage samples for the determination of Al(III), Fe(II), Co(II), Cu(II), Cd(II) and Pb(II) ions, with the relative standard deviation of <3.7%.

  3. FR II radio galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey: observational facts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozieł-Wierzbowska, D.; Stasińska, G.

    2011-08-01

    Starting from the Cambridge Catalogues of radio sources, we have created a sample of 401 Fanaroff-Riley type II (FR II) radio sources that have counterparts in the main galaxy sample of the seventh Data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and analyse their radio and optical properties. We find that the luminosity in the Hα line - which we argue gives a better measure of the total emission-line flux than the widely used luminosity in [O III]- is strongly correlated with the radio luminosity P1.4 GHz. We show that the absence of emission lines in about one third of our sample is likely due to a detection threshold and not to a lack of optical activity. We also find a very strong correlation between the values of LHα and P1.4 GHz when scaled by ‘MBH’, an estimate of the black hole mass. We find that the properties of FR II galaxies are mainly driven by the Eddington parameter LHα/‘MBH’ or, equivalently, P1.4 GHz/‘MBH’. Radio galaxies with hotspots are found among the ones with the highest values of P1.4 GHz/‘MBH’. Compared to classical active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts in the main galaxy sample of the SDSS, our FR II galaxies show a larger proportion of objects with very hard ionizing radiation field and large ionization parameter. A few objects are, on the contrary, ionized by a softer radiation field. Two of them have double-peaked emission lines and deserve more attention. We find that the black hole masses and stellar masses in FR II galaxies are very closely related: ‘MBH’∝M1.13* with very little scatter. A comparison sample of line-less galaxies in the SDSS follows exactly the same relation, although the masses are, on average, smaller. This suggests that the FR II radio phenomenon occurs in normal elliptical galaxies, preferentially in the most massive ones. Although most FR II galaxies are old, some contain traces of young stellar populations. Such young populations are not seen in normal line-less galaxies, suggesting that

  4. High resolution spectroscopy of the disk chromosphere. II - Time sequence observations of Ca II H and K emissions.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, P. R.; Rees, D. E.; Beckers, J. M.; Brown, D. R.

    1972-01-01

    Two independent sets of high resolution time series spectra of the Ca II H and K emission obtained at the Solar Tower and at the Big Dome of the Sacramento Peak Observatory on September 11th, 1971 are reported. The evolutionary behavior of the emission first reported by Wilson and Evans is confirmed, but the detail of the evolution is found to be more complex. In one case, a doubly peaked feature showing some K3 emission evolves into a single K2 (red) peak with no K3 emission. Coincidentally, a neighboring doubly peaked feature evolves to a very strong blue peak. In an entirely independent sequence a doubly peaked feature evolves into a single red peak. The K2 emission then fades completely although the continuum threads are still strong. Finally a strong K2 blue peak appears. It is concluded that the observed evolution of the K2 emission is due to temporal variations in the physical conditions which give rise to them.

  5. Assessing the Impact of Observations on the Prediction of Effective Atmospheric Angular Momentum from NAVGEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, N. L.; Langland, R.

    2016-12-01

    Variations in Earth rotation are measured by comparing a time based on Earth's variable rotation rate about its axis to a time standard based on an internationally coordinated ensemble of atomic clocks that provide a uniform time scale. The variability of Earth's rotation is partly due to the changes in angular momentum that occur in the atmosphere and ocean as weather patterns and ocean features develop, propagate, and dissipate. The NAVGEM Effective Atmospheric Angular Momentum Functions (EAAMF) and their predictions are computed following Barnes et al. (1983), and provided to the U.S. Naval Observatory daily. These along with similar data from the NOAA GFS model are used to calculate and predict the Earth orientation parameters (Stamatakos et al., 2016). The Navy's high-resolution global weather prediction system consists of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM; Hogan et al., 2014) and a hybrid four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (4DVar) (Kuhl et al., 2013). An important component of NAVGEM is the Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact (FSOI). FSOI is a mathematical method to quantify the contribution of individual observations or sets of observations to the reduction in the 24-hr forecast error (Langland and Baker, 2004). The FSOI allows for dynamic monitoring of the relative quality and value of the observations assimilated by NAVGEM, and the relative ability of the data assimilation system to effectively use the observation information to generate an improved forecast. For this study, along with the FSOI based on the global moist energy error norm, we computed the FSOI using an error norm based on the Effective Angular Momentum Functions. This modification allowed us to assess which observations were most beneficial in reducing the 24-hr forecast error for the atmospheric angular momentum.

  6. Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.

    Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line inmore » the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with  z > 20 pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.« less

  7. Observational consistency and future predictions for a 3.5 keV ALP to photon line

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alvarez, Pedro D.; Conlon, Joseph P.; Day, Francesca V.

    Motivated by the possibility of explaining the 3.5 keV line through dark matter decaying to axion-like particles that subsequently convert to photons, we study ALP-photon conversion for sightlines passing within 50 pc of the galactic centre. Conversion depends on the galactic centre magnetic field which is highly uncertain. For fields at low or mid-range of observational estimates (10–100 μG), no observable signal is possible. For fields at the high range of observational estimates (a pervasive poloidal mG field over the central 150 pc) it is possible to generate sufficient signal to explain recent observations of a 3.5 keV line inmore » the galactic centre. In this scenario, the galactic centre line signal comes predominantly from the region with z>20pc, reconciling the results from the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray telescopes. The dark matter to ALP to photon scenario also naturally predicts the non-observation of the 3.5 keV line in stacked galaxy spectra. We further explore predictions for the line flux in galaxies and suggest a set of galaxies that is optimised for observing the 3.5 keV line in this model.« less

  8. Extensions to the visual predictive check to facilitate model performance evaluation.

    PubMed

    Post, Teun M; Freijer, Jan I; Ploeger, Bart A; Danhof, Meindert

    2008-04-01

    The Visual Predictive Check (VPC) is a valuable and supportive instrument for evaluating model performance. However in its most commonly applied form, the method largely depends on a subjective comparison of the distribution of the simulated data with the observed data, without explicitly quantifying and relating the information in both. In recent adaptations to the VPC this drawback is taken into consideration by presenting the observed and predicted data as percentiles. In addition, in some of these adaptations the uncertainty in the predictions is represented visually. However, it is not assessed whether the expected random distribution of the observations around the predicted median trend is realised in relation to the number of observations. Moreover the influence of and the information residing in missing data at each time point is not taken into consideration. Therefore, in this investigation the VPC is extended with two methods to support a less subjective and thereby more adequate evaluation of model performance: (i) the Quantified Visual Predictive Check (QVPC) and (ii) the Bootstrap Visual Predictive Check (BVPC). The QVPC presents the distribution of the observations as a percentage, thus regardless the density of the data, above and below the predicted median at each time point, while also visualising the percentage of unavailable data. The BVPC weighs the predicted median against the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles resulting from a bootstrap of the observed data median at each time point, while accounting for the number and the theoretical position of unavailable data. The proposed extensions to the VPC are illustrated by a pharmacokinetic simulation example and applied to a pharmacodynamic disease progression example.

  9. Observational calibration of the projection factor of Cepheids. I. The type II Cepheid κ Pavonis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breitfelder, J.; Kervella, P.; Mérand, A.; Gallenne, A.; Szabados, L.; Anderson, R. I.; Willson, M.; Le Bouquin, J.-B.

    2015-04-01

    Context. The distance of pulsating stars, in particular Cepheids, are commonly measured using the parallax of pulsation technique. The different versions of this technique combine measurements of the linear diameter variation (from spectroscopy) and the angular diameter variation (from photometry or interferometry) amplitudes, to retrieve the distance in a quasi-geometrical way. However, the linear diameter amplitude is directly proportional to the projection factor (hereafter p-factor), which is used to convert spectroscopic radial velocities (i.e., disk integrated) into pulsating (i.e., photospheric) velocities. The value of the p-factor and its possible dependence on the pulsation period are still widely debated. Aims: Our goal is to measure an observational value of the p-factor of the type-II Cepheid κ Pavonis. Methods: The parallax of the type-II Cepheid κ Pav was measured with an accuracy of 5% using HST/FGS. We used this parallax as a starting point to derive the p-factor of κ Pav, using the SPIPS technique (Spectro-Photo-Interferometry of Pulsating Stars), which is a robust version of the parallax-of-pulsation method that employs radial velocity, interferometric and photometric data. We applied this technique to a combination of new VLTI/PIONIER optical interferometric angular diameters, new CORALIE and HARPS radial velocities, as well as multi-colour photometry and radial velocities from the literature. Results: We obtain a value of p = 1.26 ± 0.07 for the p-factor of κ Pav. This result agrees with several of the recently derived Period-p-factor relationships from the literature, as well as previous observational determinations for Cepheids. Conclusions: Individual estimates of the p-factor are fundamental to calibrating the parallax of pulsation distances of Cepheids. Together with previous observational estimates, the projection factor we obtain points to a weak dependence of the p-factor on period. Based on observations realized with ESO

  10. A TRANSITION REGION EXPLOSIVE EVENT OBSERVED IN He II WITH THE MOSES SOUNDING ROCKET

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fox, J. Lewis; Kankelborg, Charles C.; Thomas, Roger J., E-mail: fox@physics.montana.ed, E-mail: kankel@solar.physics.montana.ed, E-mail: Roger.J.Thomas@nasa.go

    2010-08-20

    Transition region explosive events (EEs) have been observed with slit spectrographs since at least 1975, most commonly in lines of C IV (1548 A, 1550 A) and Si IV (1393 A, 1402 A). We report what we believe to be the first observation of a transition region EE in He II 304 A. With the Multi-Order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES) sounding rocket, a novel slitless imaging spectrograph, we are able to see the spatial structure of the event. We observe a bright core expelling two jets that are distinctly non-collinear, in directions that are not anti-parallel. The jets have sky-planemore » velocities of order 75 km s{sup -1} and line-of-sight velocities of +75 km s{sup -1} (blue) and -30 km s{sup -1} (red). The core is a region of high non-thermal Doppler broadening, characteristic of EEs, with maximal broadening 380 km s{sup -1} FWHM. It is possible to resolve the core broadening into red and blue line-of-sight components of maximum Doppler velocities +160 km s{sup -1} and -220 km s{sup -1}. The event lasts more than 150 s. Its properties correspond to the larger, long-lived, and more energetic EEs observed in other wavelengths.« less

  11. Far Infrared Spectroscopy of H II Regions. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ward, D. B.

    1975-01-01

    The far infrared spectra of H II regions are investigated. A liquid helium cooled grating spectrometer designed to make observations from the NASA Lear Jet is described along with tests of the instrument. The observing procedure on the Lear Jet telescope is described and the method of data analysis is discussed. Results are presented from a search for the (O III) 88.16 micron line. An upper limit on the emission in this line is obtained and line detection is described. Results are compared to theoretical predictions, and future applications of fine structure line observations are discussed. Coarse resolution results are given along with calibration problems. The spectra obtained are compared to models for dust emission.

  12. An analysis of observer-rated functional vision in patients implanted with the Argus II Retinal Prosthesis System at three years.

    PubMed

    Geruschat, Duane R; Richards, Thomas P; Arditi, Aries; da Cruz, Lyndon; Dagnelie, Gislin; Dorn, Jessy D; Duncan, Jacque L; Ho, Allen C; Olmos de Koo, Lisa C; Sahel, José-Alain; Stanga, Paulo E; Thumann, Gabriele; Wang, Vizhong; Greenberg, Robert J

    2016-05-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to compare observer-rated tasks in patients implanted with the Argus II Retinal Prosthesis System, when the device is ON versus OFF. The Functional Low-Vision Observer Rated Assessment (FLORA) instrument was administered to 26 blind patients implanted with the Argus II Retinal Prosthesis System at a mean follow-up of 36 months. FLORA is a multi-component instrument that consists in part of observer-rated assessment of 35 tasks completed with the device ON versus OFF. The ease with which a patient completes a task is scored using a four-point scale, ranging from easy (score of 1) to impossible (score of 4). The tasks are evaluated individually and organised into four discrete domains, including 'Visual orientation', 'Visual mobility', 'Daily life and 'Interaction with others'. Twenty-six patients completed each of the 35 tasks. Overall, 24 out of 35 tasks (69 per cent) were statistically significantly easier to achieve with the device ON versus OFF. In each of the four domains, patients' performances were significantly better (p < 0.05) with the device ON versus OFF, ranging from 19 to 38 per cent improvement. Patients with an Argus II Retinal Prosthesis implanted for 18 to 44 months (mean 36 months), demonstrated significantly improved completion of vision-related tasks with the device ON versus OFF. © 2016 The Authors Clinical and Experimental Optometry published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Optometry Australia.

  13. Numerical Predictions of Wind Turbine Power and Aerodynamic Loads for the NREL Phase II and IV Combined Experiment Rotor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duque, Earl P. N.; Johnson, Wayne; vanDam, C. P.; Chao, David D.; Cortes, Regina; Yee, Karen

    1999-01-01

    Accurate, reliable and robust numerical predictions of wind turbine rotor power remain a challenge to the wind energy industry. The literature reports various methods that compare predictions to experiments. The methods vary from Blade Element Momentum Theory (BEM), Vortex Lattice (VL), to variants of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS). The BEM and VL methods consistently show discrepancies in predicting rotor power at higher wind speeds mainly due to inadequacies with inboard stall and stall delay models. The RaNS methodologies show promise in predicting blade stall. However, inaccurate rotor vortex wake convection, boundary layer turbulence modeling and grid resolution has limited their accuracy. In addition, the inherently unsteady stalled flow conditions become computationally expensive for even the best endowed research labs. Although numerical power predictions have been compared to experiment. The availability of good wind turbine data sufficient for code validation experimental data that has been extracted from the IEA Annex XIV download site for the NREL Combined Experiment phase II and phase IV rotor. In addition, the comparisons will show data that has been further reduced into steady wind and zero yaw conditions suitable for comparisons to "steady wind" rotor power predictions. In summary, the paper will present and discuss the capabilities and limitations of the three numerical methods and make available a database of experimental data suitable to help other numerical methods practitioners validate their own work.

  14. Observed fearlessness and positive parenting interact to predict childhood callous-unemotional behaviors among low-income boys.

    PubMed

    Waller, Rebecca; Shaw, Daniel S; Hyde, Luke W

    2017-03-01

    Callous-unemotional behaviors identify children at risk for severe and chronic antisocial behavior. Research is needed to establish pathways from temperament and parenting factors that give rise to callous-unemotional behaviors, including interactions of positive versus harsh parenting with child fearlessness. Multimethod data, including parent reports and observations of parent and child behavior, were drawn from a prospective, longitudinal sample of low-income boys (N = 310) with assessments at 18, 24, and 42 months, and at ages 10-12 years old. Parent-reported callous-unemotional, oppositional, and attention-deficit factors were separable at 42 months. Callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at ages 10-12, accounting for earlier oppositional and attention-deficit behaviors and self-reported child delinquency at ages 10-12. Observations of fearlessness at 24 months predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months, but only when parents exhibited low observed levels of positive parenting. The interaction of fearlessness and low positive parenting indirectly predicted callous-unemotional behaviors at 10-12 via callous-unemotional behaviors at 42 months. Early fearlessness interacts with low positive parenting to predict early callous-unemotional behaviors, with lasting effects of this person-by-context interaction on callous-unemotional behaviors into late childhood. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  15. The missing link: Predicting connectomes from noisy and partially observed tract tracing data

    PubMed Central

    Hinne, Max; Meijers, Annet; Tiesinga, Paul H. E.; Mørup, Morten

    2017-01-01

    Our understanding of the wiring map of the brain, known as the connectome, has increased greatly in the last decade, mostly due to technological advancements in neuroimaging techniques and improvements in computational tools to interpret the vast amount of available data. Despite this, with the exception of the C. elegans roundworm, no definitive connectome has been established for any species. In order to obtain this, tracer studies are particularly appealing, as these have proven highly reliable. The downside of tract tracing is that it is costly to perform, and can only be applied ex vivo. In this paper, we suggest that instead of probing all possible connections, hitherto unknown connections may be predicted from the data that is already available. Our approach uses a ‘latent space model’ that embeds the connectivity in an abstract physical space. Regions that are close in the latent space have a high chance of being connected, while regions far apart are most likely disconnected in the connectome. After learning the latent embedding from the connections that we did observe, the latent space allows us to predict connections that have not been probed previously. We apply the methodology to two connectivity data sets of the macaque, where we demonstrate that the latent space model is successful in predicting unobserved connectivity, outperforming two baselines and an alternative model in nearly all cases. Furthermore, we show how the latent spatial embedding may be used to integrate multimodal observations (i.e. anterograde and retrograde tracers) for the mouse neocortex. Finally, our probabilistic approach enables us to make explicit which connections are easy to predict and which prove difficult, allowing for informed follow-up studies. PMID:28141820

  16. Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

    2002-01-01

    The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

  17. The Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II) complexes with herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid - Synthesis and structural studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drzewiecka-Antonik, Aleksandra; Ferenc, Wiesława; Wolska, Anna; Klepka, Marcin T.; Cristóvão, Beata; Sarzyński, Jan; Rejmak, Paweł; Osypiuk, Dariusz

    2017-01-01

    The Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II) complexes with herbicide 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) were synthesized and structurally characterized. The geometry of metal-ligand interaction was refined using XAFS and DFT studies. The Co(2,4-D)2·6H2O and Ni(2,4-D)2·4H2O complexes have octahedral geometry with two carboxylate groups of 2,4-D anions and four water molecules in the coordination sphere. The square planar geometry around metal cations formed by the carboxylate groups from two monodentate ligands and two water molecules, is observed for Cu(2,4-D)2·4H2O complex. In the recrystallized Ni(II) complex dinuclear 'Chinese lantern' structures with bridging carboxylate groups of 2,4-D were observed.

  18. Observation and prediction of dynamic ground strains, tilts, and torsions caused by the Mw 6.0 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake and aftershocks, derived from UPSAR array observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spudich, P.; Fletcher, Joe B.

    2008-01-01

    The 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake (Mw 6.0) and four aftershocks (Mw 4.7-5.1) were recorded on 12 accelerograph stations of the U.S. Geological Survey Parkfield seismic array (UPSAR), an array of three-component accelerographs occupying an area of about 1 km2 located 8.8 km from the San Andreas fault. Peak horizontal acceleration and velocity at UPSAR during the mainshock were 0.45g and 27 cm/sec, respectively. We determined both time-varying and peak values of ground dilatations, shear strains, torsions, tilts, torsion rates, and tilt rates by applying a time-dependent geodetic analysis to the observed array displacement time series. Array-derived dilatations agree fairly well with point measurements made on high sample rate recordings of the Parkfield-area dilatometers (Johnston et al., 2006). Torsion Fourier amplitude spectra agree well with ground velocity spectra, as expected for propagating plane waves. A simple predictive relation, using the predicted peak velocity from the Boore-Atkinson ground-motion prediction relation (Boore and Atkinson, 2007) scaled by a phase velocity of 1 km/sec, predicts observed peak Parkfield and Chi-Chi rotations (Huang, 2003) well. However, rotation rates measured during Mw 5 Ito, Japan, events observed on a gyro sensor (Takeo, 1998) are factors of 5-60 greater than those predicted by our predictive relation. This discrepancy might be caused by a scale dependence in rotation, with rotations measured over a short baseline exceeding those measured over long baselines. An alternative hypothesis is that events having significant non-double-couple mechanisms, like the Ito events, radiate much stronger rotations than double-couple events. If this is true, then rotational observations might provide an important source of new information for monitoring seismicity in volcanic areas.

  19. Generic tags for Mn(ii) and Gd(iii) spin labels for distance measurements in proteins.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yin; Gong, Yan-Jun; Litvinov, Aleksei; Liu, Hong-Kai; Yang, Feng; Su, Xun-Cheng; Goldfarb, Daniella

    2017-10-11

    High-affinity chelating tags for Gd(iii) and Mn(ii) ions that provide valuable high-resolution distance restraints for biomolecules were used as spin labels for double electron-electron resonance (DEER) measurements. The availability of a generic tag that can bind both metal ions and provide a narrow and predictable distance distribution for both ions is attractive owing to their different EPR-related characteristics. Herein we introduced two paramagnetic tags, 4PSPyMTA and 4PSPyNPDA, which are conjugated to cysteine residues through a stable thioether bond, forming a short and, depending on the metal ion coordination mode, a rigid tether with the protein. These tags exhibit high affinity for both Mn(ii) and Gd(iii) ions. The DEER performance of the 4PSPyMTA and 4PSPyNPDA tags, in complex with Gd(iii) or Mn(ii), was evaluated for three double cysteine mutants of ubiquitin, and the Gd(iii)-Gd(iii) and Mn(ii)-Mn(ii) distance distributions they generated were compared. All three Gd(iii) complexes of the ubiquitin-PyMTA and ubiquitin-PyNPDA conjugates produced similar and expected distance distributions. In contrast, significant variations in the maxima and widths of the distance distributions were observed for the Mn(ii) analogs. Furthermore, whereas PyNPDA-Gd(iii) and PyNPDA-Mn(ii) delivered similar distance distributions, appreciable differences were observed for two mutants with PyMTA, with the Mn(ii) analog exhibiting a broader distance distribution and shorter distances. ELDOR (electron-electron double resonance)-detected NMR measurements revealed some distribution in the Mn(ii) coordination environment for the protein conjugates of both tags but not for the free tags. The broader distance distributions generated by 4PSPyMTA-Mn(ii), as compared with Gd(iii), were attributed to the distributed location of the Mn(ii) ion within the PyMTA chelate owing to its smaller size and lower coordination number that leave the pyridine nitrogen uncoordinated. Accordingly, in

  20. 14-3-3 proteins tune non-muscle myosin II assembly.

    PubMed

    West-Foyle, Hoku; Kothari, Priyanka; Osborne, Jonathan; Robinson, Douglas N

    2018-05-04

    The 14-3-3 family comprises a group of small proteins that are essential, ubiquitous, and highly conserved across eukaryotes. Overexpression of the 14-3-3 proteins σ, ϵ, ζ, and η correlates with high metastatic potential in multiple cancer types. In Dictyostelium , 14-3-3 promotes myosin II turnover in the cell cortex and modulates cortical tension, cell shape, and cytokinesis. In light of the important roles of 14-3-3 proteins across a broad range of eukaryotic species, we sought to determine how 14-3-3 proteins interact with myosin II. Here, conducting in vitro and in vivo studies of both Dictyostelium (one 14-3-3 and one myosin II) and human proteins (seven 14-3-3s and three nonmuscle myosin IIs), we investigated the mechanism by which 14-3-3 proteins regulate myosin II assembly. Using in vitro assembly assays with purified myosin II tail fragments and 14-3-3, we demonstrate that this interaction is direct and phosphorylation-independent. All seven human 14-3-3 proteins also altered assembly of at least one paralog of myosin II. Our findings indicate a mechanism of myosin II assembly regulation that is mechanistically conserved across a billion years of evolution from amebas to humans. We predict that altered 14-3-3 expression in humans inhibits the tumor suppressor myosin II, contributing to the changes in cell mechanics observed in many metastatic cancers. © 2018 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  1. Better prognostic marker in ICU - APACHE II, SOFA or SAP II!

    PubMed

    Naqvi, Iftikhar Haider; Mahmood, Khalid; Ziaullaha, Syed; Kashif, Syed Mohammad; Sharif, Asim

    2016-01-01

    This study was designed to determine the comparative efficacy of different scoring system in assessing the prognosis of critically ill patients. This was a retrospective study conducted in medical intensive care unit (MICU) and high dependency unit (HDU) Medical Unit III, Civil Hospital, from April 2012 to August 2012. All patients over age 16 years old who have fulfilled the criteria for MICU admission were included. Predictive mortality of APACHE II, SAP II and SOFA were calculated. Calibration and discrimination were used for validity of each scoring model. A total of 96 patients with equal gender distribution were enrolled. The average APACHE II score in non-survivors (27.97+8.53) was higher than survivors (15.82+8.79) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). The average SOFA score in non-survivors (9.68+4.88) was higher than survivors (5.63+3.63) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). SAP II average score in non-survivors (53.71+19.05) was higher than survivors (30.18+16.24) with statistically significant p value (<0.001). All three tested scoring models (APACHE II, SAP II and SOFA) would be accurate enough for a general description of our ICU patients. APACHE II has showed better calibration and discrimination power than SAP II and SOFA.

  2. Development and Application of Benchmark Examples for Mixed-Mode I/II Quasi-Static Delamination Propagation Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krueger, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The development of benchmark examples for quasi-static delamination propagation prediction is presented. The example is based on a finite element model of the Mixed-Mode Bending (MMB) specimen for 50% mode II. The benchmarking is demonstrated for Abaqus/Standard, however, the example is independent of the analysis software used and allows the assessment of the automated delamination propagation prediction capability in commercial finite element codes based on the virtual crack closure technique (VCCT). First, a quasi-static benchmark example was created for the specimen. Second, starting from an initially straight front, the delamination was allowed to propagate under quasi-static loading. Third, the load-displacement as well as delamination length versus applied load/displacement relationships from a propagation analysis and the benchmark results were compared, and good agreement could be achieved by selecting the appropriate input parameters. The benchmarking procedure proved valuable by highlighting the issues associated with choosing the input parameters of the particular implementation. Overall, the results are encouraging, but further assessment for mixed-mode delamination fatigue onset and growth is required.

  3. Predictive ability of the ISS, NISS, and APACHE II score for SIRS and sepsis in polytrauma patients.

    PubMed

    Mica, L; Furrer, E; Keel, M; Trentz, O

    2012-12-01

    Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and sepsis as causes of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) remain challenging to treat in polytrauma patients. In this study, the focus was set on widely used scoring systems to assess their diagnostic quality. A total of 512 patients (mean age: 39.2 ± 16.2, range: 16-88 years) who had an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥17 were included in this retrospective study. The patients were subdivided into four groups: no SIRS, slight SIRS, severe SIRS, and sepsis. The ISS, New Injury Severity Score (NISS), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, and prothrombin time were collected at admission. The Kruskal-Wallis test and χ(2)-test, multinomial regression analysis, and kernel density estimates were performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is reported as the area under the curve (AUC). Data were considered as significant if p < 0.05. All variables were significantly different in all groups (p < 0.001). The odds ratio increased with increasing SIRS severity for NISS (slight vs. no SIRS, 1.06, p = 0.07; severe vs. no SIRS, 1.07, p = 0.04; and sepsis vs. no SIRS, 1.11, p = 0.0028) and APACHE II score (slight vs. no SIRS, 0.97, p = 0.44; severe vs. no SIRS, 1.08, p = 0.02; and sepsis vs. no SIRS, 1.12, p = 0.0028). ROC analysis revealed that the NISS (slight vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.61; severe vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.67; and sepsis vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.77) and APACHE II score (slight vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.60; severe vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.74; and sepsis vs. no SIRS, AUC 0.82) had the best predictive ability for SIRS and sepsis. Quick assessment with the NISS or APACHE II score could preselect possible candidates for sepsis following polytrauma and provide guidance in trauma surgeons' decision-making.

  4. Anticipatory eye movements evoked after active following versus passive observation of a predictable motion stimulus.

    PubMed

    Burke, M R; Barnes, G R

    2008-12-15

    We used passive and active following of a predictable smooth pursuit stimulus in order to establish if predictive eye movement responses are equivalent under both passive and active conditions. The smooth pursuit stimulus was presented in pairs that were either 'predictable' in which both presentations were matched in timing and velocity, or 'randomized' in which each presentation in the pair was varied in both timing and velocity. A visual cue signaled the type of response required from the subject; a green cue indicated the subject should follow both the target presentations (Go-Go), a pink cue indicated that the subject should passively observe the 1st target and follow the 2nd target (NoGo-Go), and finally a green cue with a black cross revealed a randomized (Rnd) trial in which the subject should follow both presentations. The results revealed better prediction in the Go-Go trials than in the NoGo-Go trials, as indicated by higher anticipatory velocity and earlier eye movement onset (latency). We conclude that velocity and timing information stored from passive observation of a moving target is diminished when compared to active following of the target. This study has significant consequences for understanding how visuomotor memory is generated, stored and subsequently released from short-term memory.

  5. A vision for an ultra-high resolution integrated water cycle observation and prediction system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houser, P. R.

    2013-05-01

    Society's welfare, progress, and sustainable economic growth—and life itself—depend on the abundance and vigorous cycling and replenishing of water throughout the global environment. The water cycle operates on a continuum of time and space scales and exchanges large amounts of energy as water undergoes phase changes and is moved from one part of the Earth system to another. We must move toward an integrated observation and prediction paradigm that addresses broad local-to-global science and application issues by realizing synergies associated with multiple, coordinated observations and prediction systems. A central challenge of a future water and energy cycle observation strategy is to progress from single variable water-cycle instruments to multivariable integrated instruments in electromagnetic-band families. The microwave range in the electromagnetic spectrum is ideally suited for sensing the state and abundance of water because of water's dielectric properties. Eventually, a dedicated high-resolution water-cycle microwave-based satellite mission may be possible based on large-aperture antenna technology that can harvest the synergy that would be afforded by simultaneous multichannel active and passive microwave measurements. A partial demonstration of these ideas can even be realized with existing microwave satellite observations to support advanced multivariate retrieval methods that can exploit the totality of the microwave spectral information. The simultaneous multichannel active and passive microwave retrieval would allow improved-accuracy retrievals that are not possible with isolated measurements. Furthermore, the simultaneous monitoring of several of the land, atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric states brings synergies that will substantially enhance understanding of the global water and energy cycle as a system. The multichannel approach also affords advantages to some constituent retrievals—for instance, simultaneous retrieval of vegetation

  6. Optimal versus observed vegetation responses to CO2 over the last 40 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roderick, M. L.; Yang, Y.; Donohue, R. J.; Farquhar, G. D.; McVicar, T.

    2016-12-01

    The ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 presents an interesting opportunity for primary producers. Understanding the impacts on agriculture, natural ecological communities and water resources presents considerable challenges. We investigate this problem using a Budyko-type framework based around two end-members: (i) warm arid environments (e.g. warm deserts) and (ii) warm wet environments (e.g. tropical rainforests). We first make predictions of the effect of a change in atmospheric CO2 on the partitioning of precipitation between evapotranspiration and streamflow. We then use satellite observation of greenness and in-situ streamflow data to assess the predictions. We finish by contrasting the observed responses against those expected from a purely theoretical construct: the so-called optimal vegetation.

  7. Evaluating observations in the context of predictions for the death valley regional groundwater system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, D.M.; Hill, M.C.; Tiedeman, C.R.; O'Brien, G. M.

    2004-01-01

    When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic and inferential statistics provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This work uses linear inferential statistics that are measures of prediction uncertainty to investigate the likely importance of continued monitoring of hydraulic head to the accuracy of model predictions. The measurements evaluated are hydraulic heads; the predictions of interest are subsurface transport from 15 locations. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its Advective Travel Observation (ADV) Package. Copyright ASCE 2004.

  8. Using simulation models to predict feed intake: phenotypic and genetic relationships between observed and predicted values in cattle.

    PubMed

    Williams, C B; Bennett, G L; Jenkins, T G; Cundiff, L V; Ferrell, C L

    2006-06-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of the Decision Evaluator for the Cattle Industry (DECI) and the Cornell Value Discovery System (CVDS) in predicting individual DMI and to assess the feasibility of using predicted DMI data in genetic evaluations of cattle. Observed individual animal data on the average daily DMI (OFI), ADG, and carcass measurements were obtained from postweaning records of 504 steers from 52 sires (502 with complete data). The experimental data and daily temperature and wind speed data were used as inputs to predict average daily feed DMI (kg) required (feed required; FR) for maintenance, cold stress, and ADG; maintenance and cold stress; ADG; maintenance and ADG; and maintenance alone, with CVDS (CFRmcg, CFRmc, CFRg, CFRmg, and CFRm, respectively) and DECI (DFRmcg, DFRmc, DFRg, DFRmg, and DFRm, respectively). Genetic parameters were estimated by REML using an animal model with age on test as a covariate and with genotype, age of dam, and year as fixed effects. Regression equations for observed on predicted DMI were OFI = 1.27 (SE = 0.27) + 0.83 (SE = 0.04) x CFRmcg [R2 = 0.44, residual SD (s(y.x)) = 0.669 kg/d] and OFI = 1.32 (SE = 0.22) + 0.8 (SE = 0.03) x DFRmcg (R2 = 0.53, s(y.x) = 0.612 kg/d). Heritability of OFI was 0.27 +/- 0.12, and heritabilities ranged from 0.33 +/- 0.12 to 0.41 +/- 0.13 for predicted measures of DMI. Phenotypic and genetic correlations between OFI and CFRmcg, CFRmc, CFRg, CFRmg, CFRm, DFRmcg, DFRmc, DFRg, DFRmg, and DFRm were 0.67, 0.73, 0.41, 0.63, 0.78, 0.73, 0.82, 0.45, 0.77, and 0.86 (P < 0.001 for all phenotypic correlations); and 0.95 +/- 0.07, 0.82 +/- 0.13, 0.89 +/- 0.09, 0.95 +/- 0.07, 0.91 +/- 0.09, 0.96 +/- 0.07, 0.89 +/- 0.09, 0.88 +/- 0.09, 0.96 +/- 0.06, and 0.96 +/- 0.07, respectively. Phenotypic and genetic correlations between CFRmcg and DFRmcg, CFRmc and DFRmc, CFRg and DFRg, CFRmg and DFRmg, and CFRm and DFRm were 0.98, 0.94, 0.99, 0.98, and 0.95 (P < 0.001 for all phenotypic

  9. Cosmological velocity correlations - Observations and model predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gorski, Krzysztof M.; Davis, Marc; Strauss, Michael A.; White, Simon D. M.; Yahil, Amos

    1989-01-01

    By applying the present simple statistics for two-point cosmological peculiar velocity-correlation measurements to the actual data sets of the Local Supercluster spiral galaxy of Aaronson et al. (1982) and the elliptical galaxy sample of Burstein et al. (1987), as well as to the velocity field predicted by the distribution of IRAS galaxies, a coherence length of 1100-1600 km/sec is obtained. Coherence length is defined as that separation at which the correlations drop to half their zero-lag value. These results are compared with predictions from two models of large-scale structure formation: that of cold dark matter and that of baryon isocurvature proposed by Peebles (1980). N-body simulations of these models are performed to check the linear theory predictions and measure sampling fluctuations.

  10. Chemical differentiation, thermal evolution, and catastrophic overturn on Venus: Predictions and geologic observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Head, James W.; Parmentier, E. M.; Hess, P. C.

    1993-01-01

    Observations from Magellan show that: (1) the surface of Venus is generally geologically young, (2) there is no evidence for widespread recent crustal spreading or subduction, (3) the crater population permits the hypothesis that the surface is in production, and (4) relatively few impact craters appear to be embayed by volcanic deposits suggesting that the volcanic flux has drastically decreased as a function of time. These observations have led to consideration of hypotheses suggesting that the geological history of Venus may have changed dramatically as a function of time due to general thermal evolution, and/or thermal and chemical evolution of a depleted mantle layer, perhaps punctuated by catastrophic overturn of upper layers or episodic plate tectonics. We have previously examined the geological implications of some of these models, and here we review the predictions associated with two periods of Venus history. Stationary thick lithosphere and depleted mantle layer, and development of regional to global development of regional to global instabilities, and compare these predictions to the geological characteristics of Venus revealed by Magellan.

  11. Predictions of Experimentally Observed Stochastic Ground Vibrations Induced by Blasting

    PubMed Central

    Kostić, Srđan; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Trajković, Slobodan

    2013-01-01

    In the present paper, we investigate the blast induced ground motion recorded at the limestone quarry “Suva Vrela” near Kosjerić, which is located in the western part of Serbia. We examine the recorded signals by means of surrogate data methods and a determinism test, in order to determine whether the recorded ground velocity is stochastic or deterministic in nature. Longitudinal, transversal and the vertical ground motion component are analyzed at three monitoring points that are located at different distances from the blasting source. The analysis reveals that the recordings belong to a class of stationary linear stochastic processes with Gaussian inputs, which could be distorted by a monotonic, instantaneous, time-independent nonlinear function. Low determinism factors obtained with the determinism test further confirm the stochastic nature of the recordings. Guided by the outcome of time series analysis, we propose an improved prediction model for the peak particle velocity based on a neural network. We show that, while conventional predictors fail to provide acceptable prediction accuracy, the neural network model with four main blast parameters as input, namely total charge, maximum charge per delay, distance from the blasting source to the measuring point, and hole depth, delivers significantly more accurate predictions that may be applicable on site. We also perform a sensitivity analysis, which reveals that the distance from the blasting source has the strongest influence on the final value of the peak particle velocity. This is in full agreement with previous observations and theory, thus additionally validating our methodology and main conclusions. PMID:24358140

  12. Predictive modelling of Ketzin - CO2 arrival in the observation well

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kühn, M.; Class, H.; Frykman, P.; Kopp, A.; Nielsen, C. M.; Probst, P.

    2009-04-01

    The design of the Ketzin CO2 storage site allows testing of different modelling approaches, ranging from analytical approaches to finite element modelling. As three wells are drilled in an L-shape configuration, 3D geophysical observations (electrical resistivity, seismic imaging - for details see further presentations at EGU2009) allow to determine the 4D evolvement of the CO2 plume within the reservoir. Further information is available through smart casing technologies (DTS, ERT), conventional fluid, and permanent gas sampling. As input parameters for the models, a high resolution 3D seismic as well as detailed analysed core samples from all three wells at Ketzin were available. Logging data and laboratory experiments on rock samples act as further boundary conditions for the geological model. Hydraulic testing of all three wells gave further information about the complex hydraulic situation of the highly heterogeneous reservoir. Before CO2 injection started at the Ketzin site on the 30th of June 2008 any member of the CO2SINK project was asked to place a bet in a competition and predict when the CO2 arrival in the observation well - 50 m away from the injection site - is to be expected. This allows for a double blind study, the approval of different modelling strategies, and to improve modelling tools and strategies. The discussed estimates are based on three different numerical models. Eclipse100, Eclipse300 (CO2STORE) and MUFTE-UG were applied for predictive modelling. The geological models are based on all available geophysical and geological information. We present the results of this modelling exercise and discuss the differences of all the models and assess the capability of numerical simulation to estimate processes occurring during CO2 storage. The role of grid size on the precision of the modelled two phase fluid flow in a layered reservoir is demonstrated, as a high resolution model of the two phase flow explains the observed arrival of the CO2 very

  13. Inferring a Gap in the Group II Disk of the Herbig Ae/Be Star HD 142666

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ezra Rubinstein, Adam; Macías, Enrique; Espaillat, Catherine; Calvet, Nuria; Robinson, Connor; Zhang, Ke

    2018-01-01

    Disks around Herbig Ae/Be (HAeBe) stars have been classified into Group I or Group II, which are thought to be flared and flat disks respectively. Most Group I disks have been shown to have large gaps, suggesting ongoing planet formation, while no large gaps have been found in Group II disks. We analyzed the Group II disk of HD 142666 using irradiated accretion disk modeling of the broad-band spectral energy distribution along with the 1.3 millimeter spatial brightness distribution traced by Atacama Large Millimeter and Submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations. Our model is able to reproduce the available data, predicting a high degree of settling in the disk, which is consistent with the Group II classification of HD 142666. Although the ALMA observations did not have enough angular resolution to fully resolve the inner parts of the disk, the observed visibilities and synthesized image can only be reproduced when including a gap between ~5 to 12 au in our disk model. In addition, we also infer that the disk has an outer radius of ~65 au, which may be evidence of radial migration of dust or an unseen, low-mass companion that is truncating the outer disk. These results may suggest that Group II disks around HAeBe stars have gaps, possibly carved by young giant planets in the disk. Further ALMA observations of HD 142666 and other Group II disks are needed to discern if gaps are common in this class of objects, as well as to reveal their possible origin.

  14. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson's Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations.

    PubMed

    Dinov, Ivo D; Heavner, Ben; Tang, Ming; Glusman, Gustavo; Chard, Kyle; Darcy, Mike; Madduri, Ravi; Pa, Judy; Spino, Cathie; Kesselman, Carl; Foster, Ian; Deutsch, Eric W; Price, Nathan D; Van Horn, John D; Ames, Joseph; Clark, Kristi; Hood, Leroy; Hampstead, Benjamin M; Dauer, William; Toga, Arthur W

    2016-01-01

    A unique archive of Big Data on Parkinson's Disease is collected, managed and disseminated by the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The integration of such complex and heterogeneous Big Data from multiple sources offers unparalleled opportunities to study the early stages of prevalent neurodegenerative processes, track their progression and quickly identify the efficacies of alternative treatments. Many previous human and animal studies have examined the relationship of Parkinson's disease (PD) risk to trauma, genetics, environment, co-morbidities, or life style. The defining characteristics of Big Data-large size, incongruency, incompleteness, complexity, multiplicity of scales, and heterogeneity of information-generating sources-all pose challenges to the classical techniques for data management, processing, visualization and interpretation. We propose, implement, test and validate complementary model-based and model-free approaches for PD classification and prediction. To explore PD risk using Big Data methodology, we jointly processed complex PPMI imaging, genetics, clinical and demographic data. Collective representation of the multi-source data facilitates the aggregation and harmonization of complex data elements. This enables joint modeling of the complete data, leading to the development of Big Data analytics, predictive synthesis, and statistical validation. Using heterogeneous PPMI data, we developed a comprehensive protocol for end-to-end data characterization, manipulation, processing, cleaning, analysis and validation. Specifically, we (i) introduce methods for rebalancing imbalanced cohorts, (ii) utilize a wide spectrum of classification methods to generate consistent and powerful phenotypic predictions, and (iii) generate reproducible machine-learning based classification that enables the reporting of model parameters and diagnostic forecasting based on new data. We evaluated several complementary model-based predictive approaches

  15. Mortality in severe trauma patients attended by emergency services in Navarre, Spain: validation of a new prediction model and comparison with the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II.

    PubMed

    Ali Ali, Bismil; Lefering, Rolf; Fortún Moral, Mariano; Belzunegui Otano, Tomás

    2018-01-01

    To validate the Mortality Prediction Model of Navarre (MPMN) to predict death after severe trauma and compare it to the Revised Injury Severity Classification Score II (RISCII). Retrospective analysis of a cohort of severe trauma patients (New Injury Severity Score >15) who were attended by emergency services in the Spanish autonomous community of Navarre between 2013 and 2015. The outcome variable was 30-day all-cause mortality. Risk was calculated with the MPMN and the RISCII. The performance of each model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and precision with respect to observed mortality. Calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. We included 516 patients. The mean (SD) age was 56 (23) years, and 363 (70%) were males. Ninety patients (17.4%) died within 30 days. The 30-day mortality rates predicted by the MPMN and RISCII were 16.4% and 15.4%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.925 (95% CI, 0.902-0.952) for the MPMN and 0.941 (95% CI, 0.921-0.962) for the RISCII (P=0.269, DeLong test). Calibration statistics were 13.6 (P=.09) for the MPMN and 8.9 (P=.35) for the RISCII. Both the MPMN and the RISCII show good ability to discriminate risk and predict 30-day all-cause mortality in severe trauma patients.

  16. Chitosan film loaded with silver nanoparticles-sorbent for solid phase extraction of Al(III), Cd(II), Cu(II), Co(II), Fe(III), Ni(II), Pb(II) and Zn(II).

    PubMed

    Djerahov, Lubomir; Vasileva, Penka; Karadjova, Irina; Kurakalva, Rama Mohan; Aradhi, Keshav Krishna

    2016-08-20

    The present study describes the ecofriendly method for the preparation of chitosan film loaded with silver nanoparticles (CS-AgNPs) and application of this film as efficient sorbent for separation and enrichment of Al(III), Cd(II), Cu(II), Co(II), Fe(III), Ni(II), Pb(II) and Zn(II). The stable CS-AgNPs colloid was prepared by dispersing the AgNPs sol in chitosan solution at appropriate ratio and further used to obtain a cast film with very good stability under storage and good mechanical strength for easy handling in aqueous medium. The incorporation of AgNPs in the structure of CS film and interaction between the polymer matrix and nanoparticles were confirmed by UV-vis and FTIR spectroscopy. The homogeneously embedded AgNPs (average diameter 29nm, TEM analysis) were clearly observed throughout the film by SEM. The CS-AgNPs nanocomposite film shows high sorption activity toward trace metals under optimized chemical conditions. The results suggest that the CS-AgNPs nanocomposite film can be feasibly used as a novel sorbent material for solid-phase extraction of metal pollutants from surface waters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Real-time observation of the initiation of RNA polymerase II transcription.

    PubMed

    Fazal, Furqan M; Meng, Cong A; Murakami, Kenji; Kornberg, Roger D; Block, Steven M

    2015-09-10

    Biochemical and structural studies have shown that the initiation of RNA polymerase II transcription proceeds in the following stages: assembly of the polymerase with general transcription factors and promoter DNA in a 'closed' preinitiation complex (PIC); unwinding of about 15 base pairs of the promoter DNA to form an 'open' complex; scanning downstream to a transcription start site; synthesis of a short transcript, thought to be about 10 nucleotides long; and promoter escape. Here we have assembled a 32-protein, 1.5-megadalton PIC derived from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and observe subsequent initiation processes in real time with optical tweezers. Contrary to expectation, scanning driven by the transcription factor IIH involved the rapid opening of an extended transcription bubble, averaging 85 base pairs, accompanied by the synthesis of a transcript up to the entire length of the extended bubble, followed by promoter escape. PICs that failed to achieve promoter escape nevertheless formed open complexes and extended bubbles, which collapsed back to closed or open complexes, resulting in repeated futile scanning.

  18. Russian State Time and Earth Rotation Service: Observations, Eop Series, Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaufman, M.; Pasynok, S.

    2010-01-01

    Russian State Time, Frequency and Earth Rotation Service provides the official EOP data and time for use in scientific, technical and metrological works in Russia. The observations of GLONASS and GPS on 30 stations in Russia, and also the Russian and worldwide observations data of VLBI (35 stations) and SLR (20 stations) are used now. To these three series of EOP the data calculated in two other Russian analysis centers are added: IAA (VLBI, GPS and SLR series) and MCC (SLR). Joint processing of these 7 series is carried out every day (the operational EOP data for the last day and the predicted values for 50 days). The EOP values are weekly refined and systematic errors of every individual series are corrected. The combined results become accessible on the VNIIFTRI server (ftp.imvp.ru) approximately at 6h UT daily.

  19. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality. The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO 2) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO 2 concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30-60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM 2.5 can also decline by 3-15 μg m -3 (4-25%) due to the lower SO 2 and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO x emissions, NO x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30-60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2-14 μg m -3 (3-12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O 3) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O 3 concentrations in the summer reduced by 8-30 ppb.

  20. Biogeochemistry of Fe(II) oxidation in a photosynthetic microbial mat: Implications for Precambrian Fe(II) oxidation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trouwborst, Robert E.; Johnston, Anne; Koch, Gretchen; Luther, George W.; Pierson, Beverly K.

    2007-10-01

    We studied the role of microbial photosynthesis in the oxidation of Fe(II) to Fe(III) in a high Fe(II) and high Mn(II) hot spring devoid of sulfide and atmospheric oxygen in the source waters. In situ light and dark microelectrode measurements of Fe(II), Mn(II) and O 2 were made in the microbial mat consisting of cyanobacteria and anoxygenic photosynthetic Chloroflexus sp. We show that Fe(II) oxidation occurred when the mat was exposed to varying intensities of sunlight but not near infrared light. We did not observe any Mn(II) oxidation under any light or dark condition over the pH range 5-7. We observed the impact of oxygenic photosynthesis on Fe(II) oxidation, distinct from the influence of atmospheric O 2 and anoxygenic photosynthesis. In situ Fe(II) oxidation rates in the mats and cell suspensions exposed to light are consistent with abiotic oxidation by O 2. The oxidation of Fe(II) to form primary Fe(III) phases contributed to banded iron-formations (BIFs) during the Precambrian. Both oxygenic photosynthesis, which produces O 2 as an oxidizing waste product, and anoxygenic photosynthesis in which Fe(II) is used to fix CO 2 have been proposed as Fe(II) oxidation mechanisms. Although we do not know the specific mechanisms responsible for all Precambrian Fe(II) oxidation, we assessed the relative importance of both mechanisms in this modern hot spring environment. In this environment, cyanobacterial oxygen production accounted for all the observed Fe(II) oxidation. The rate data indicate that a modest population of cyanobacteria could have mediated sufficient Fe(II) oxidation for some BIFs.

  1. [Ti II] and [Ni II] Emission from the Strontium Filament of eta Carinae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bautista, M. A.; Hartman, H.; Gull, T. R.; Smith, N.; Lodders, K.

    2005-01-01

    We study the nature of the [Ti II] and [Ni II] emission from the so-called strontium filament found in the ejecta of eta Carinae. To this purpose we employ multilevel models of the Ti II and Ni II systems which are used to investigate the physical condition of the filament and the excitation mechanisms of the observed lines. For the Ti II ion, for which no atomic data was previously available, we carry out ab initio calculations of radiative transition rates and electron impact excitation rate coefficients. It is found that the observed spectrum is consistent with the lines being excited in a mostly neutral region with electron density of the order of 10(exp 7) cm(exp -3) and a temperature around 6000 K. In analyzing three observations with different slit orientations recorded between March 2000 and November 2001 we find line ratios that change among various observations, in a way consistent with changes of up to an order of magnitude in the strength of the continuum radiation field. These changes result from different samplings of the extended filament, due to the different slit orientations used for each observation, and yield clues on the spatial extent and optical depth of the filament. The observed emission indicates a large Ti/Ni abundance ratio relative to solar abundances. It is suggested that the observed high Ti/Ni ratio in gas is caused dust-gas fractionation processes and does not reflect the absolute Ti/Ni ratio in the ejecta of eta Carinae. The condensation chemistry shows that if dust condensed in a sequence of layers according to decreasing temperature and increasing distance from the central star, the most refractory dust could be selectively affected by photoevaporation. Thus, Ti would be released back to the gas and the Ti/Ni ratio in the gas would increase to the observed super-solar ratio.

  2. [Ti II] and [Ni II] Emission from the Strontium Filament of eta Carinae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bautista, M. A.; Hartman, H.; GUll, T. R.; Smith, N.; Lodders, K.

    2007-01-01

    We study the nature of the [Ti II] and [Ni II] emission from the so-called strontium filament found in the ejecta of eta Carinae. To this purpose we employ multilevel models of the Ti II and Ni II systems which are used to investigate the physical condition of the filament and the excitation mechanisms of the observed lines. For the Ti II ion, for which no atomic data was previously available, we carry out ab initio calculations of radiative transition rates and electron impact excitation rate coefficients. It is found that the observed spectrum is consistent with the lines being excited in a mostly neutral region with an electron density of the order of 10(exp 7) per cubic centimeter and a temperature around 6000 K. In analyzing three observations with different slit orientations recorded between March 2000 and November 2001 we find line ratios that change among various observations, in a way consistent with changes of up to an order of magnitude in the strength of the continuum radiation field. These changes result from different samplings of the extended filament, due to the different slit orientations used for each observation, and yield clues on the spatial extent and optical depth of the filament. The observed emission indicates a large Ti/Ni abundance ratio relative to solar abundances. It is suggested that the observed high Ti/Ni ratio in gas is caused by dust-gas fractionation processes and does not reflect the absolute Ti/Ni ratio in the ejecta of eta Carinae. We study the condensation chemistry of Ti, Ni and Fe within the filament and suggest that the observed gas phase overabundance of Ti is likely the result of selective photo-evaporation of Ti-bearing grains. Some mechanisms for such a scenario are proposed.

  3. The host dark matter haloes of [O II] emitters at 0.5 < z < 1.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Perez, V.; Comparat, J.; Norberg, P.; Baugh, C. M.; Contreras, S.; Lacey, C.; McCullagh, N.; Orsi, A.; Helly, J.; Humphries, J.

    2018-03-01

    Emission line galaxies (ELGs) are used in several ongoing and upcoming surveys (SDSS-IV/eBOSS, DESI) as tracers of the dark matter distribution. Using a new galaxy formation model, we explore the characteristics of [O II] emitters, which dominate optical ELG selections at z ≃ 1. Model [O II] emitters at 0.5 < z < 1.5 are selected to mimic the DEEP2, VVDS, eBOSS and DESI surveys. The luminosity functions of model [O II] emitters are in reasonable agreement with observations. The selected [O II] emitters are hosted by haloes with Mhalo ≥ 1010.3h-1M⊙, with ˜90 per cent of them being central star-forming galaxies. The predicted mean halo occupation distributions of [O II] emitters have a shape typical of that inferred for star-forming galaxies, with the contribution from central galaxies, < N > _{[O II] cen}, being far from the canonical step function. The < N > _{[O II] cen}} can be described as the sum of an asymmetric Gaussian for discs and a step function for spheroids, which plateau below unity. The model [O II] emitters have a clustering bias close to unity, which is below the expectations for eBOSS and DESI ELGs. At z ˜ 1, a comparison with observed g-band-selected galaxy, which is expected to be dominated by [O II] emitters, indicates that our model produces too few [O II] emitters that are satellite galaxies. This suggests the need to revise our modelling of hot gas stripping in satellite galaxies.

  4. Is a specific oncological scoring system better at predicting the prognosis of cancer patients admitted for an acute medical complication in an intensive care unit than general gravity scores?

    PubMed

    Berghmans, T; Paesmans, M; Sculier, J P

    2004-04-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of a specific oncologic scoring system-the ICU Cancer Mortality model (ICM)-in predicting hospital mortality in comparison to two general severity scores-the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II). All 247 patients admitted for a medical acute complication over an 18-month period in an oncological medical intensive care unit were prospectively registered. Their data, including type of complication, vital status at discharge and cancer characteristics as well as other variables necessary to calculate the three scoring systems were retrospectively assessed. Observed in-hospital mortality was 34%. The predicted in-hospital mortality rate for APACHE II was 32%; SAPS II, 24%; and ICM, 28%. The goodness of fit was inadequate except for the ICM score. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves revealed a better fit for ICM (area 0.79). The maximum correct classification rate was 72% for APACHE II, 74% for SAPS II and 77% for ICM. APACHE II and SAPS II were better at predicting outcome for survivors to hospital discharge, although ICM was better for non-survivors. Two variables were independently predicting the risk of death during hospitalisation: ICM (OR=2.31) and SAPS II (OR=1.05). Gravity scores were the single independent predictors for hospital mortality, and ICM was equivalent to APACHE II and SAPS II.

  5. Neutrinos from Choked Jets Accompanied by Type-II Supernovae

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Hao-Ning; Kusenko, Alexander; Nagataki, Shigehiro; Fan, Yi-Zhong; Wei, Da-Ming

    2018-04-01

    The origin of the IceCube neutrinos is still an open question. Upper limits from diffuse gamma-ray observations suggest that the neutrino sources are either distant or hidden from gamma-ray observations. It is possible that the neutrinos are produced in jets that are formed in core-collapsing massive stars and fail to break out, the so-called choked jets. We study neutrinos from the jets choked in the hydrogen envelopes of red supergiant stars. Fast photo-meson cooling softens the neutrino spectrum, making it hard to explain the PeV neutrinos observed by IceCube in a one-component scenario, but a two-component model can explain the spectrum. Furthermore, we predict that a newly born jet-driven type-II supernova may be observed to be associated with a neutrino burst detected by IceCube.

  6. Quantum oscillations in the type-II Dirac semi-metal candidate PtSe2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Hao; Schmidt, Marcus; Süss, Vicky; Chan, Mun; Balakirev, Fedor F.; McDonald, Ross D.; Parkin, Stuart S. P.; Felser, Claudia; Yan, Binghai; Moll, Philip J. W.

    2018-04-01

    Three-dimensional topological semi-metals carry quasiparticle states that mimic massless relativistic Dirac fermions, elusive particles that have never been observed in nature. As they appear in the solid body, they are not bound to the usual symmetries of space-time and thus new types of fermionic excitations that explicitly violate Lorentz-invariance have been proposed, the so-called type-II Dirac fermions. We investigate the electronic spectrum of the transition-metal dichalcogenide PtSe2 by means of quantum oscillation measurements in fields up to 65 T. The observed Fermi surfaces agree well with the expectations from band structure calculations, that recently predicted a type-II Dirac node to occur in this material. A hole- and an electron-like Fermi surface dominate the semi-metal at the Fermi level. The quasiparticle mass is significantly enhanced over the bare band mass value, likely by phonon renormalization. Our work is consistent with the existence of type-II Dirac nodes in PtSe2, yet the Dirac node is too far below the Fermi level to support free Dirac–fermion excitations.

  7. Cyclic fatigue damage characteristics observed for simple loadings extended to multiaxial life prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, David J.; Kurath, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Fully reversed uniaxial strain controlled fatigue tests were performed on smooth cylindrical specimens made of 304 stainless steel. Fatigue life data and cracking observations for uniaxial tests were compared with life data and cracking behavior observed in fully reversed torsional tests. It was determined that the product of maximum principle strain amplitude and maximum principle stress provided the best correlation of fatigue lives for these two loading conditions. Implementation of this parameter is in agreement with observed physical damage and it accounts for the variation of stress-strain response, which is unique to specific loading conditions. Biaxial fatigue tests were conducted on tubular specimens employing both in-phase and out-of-phase tension torsion cyclic strain paths. Cracking observations indicated that the physical damage which occurred in the biaxial tests was similar to the damage observed in uniaxial and torsional tests. The Smith, Watson, and Topper parameter was then extended to predict the fatigue lives resulting from the more complex loading conditions.

  8. Predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers: comparison of LAMBDA, BRCAPRO, Myriad II, and modified Couch models.

    PubMed

    Lindor, Noralane M; Lindor, Rachel A; Apicella, Carmel; Dowty, James G; Ashley, Amanda; Hunt, Katherine; Mincey, Betty A; Wilson, Marcia; Smith, M Cathie; Hopper, John L

    2007-01-01

    Models have been developed to predict the probability that a person carries a detectable germline mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. Their relative performance in a clinical setting is unclear. To compare the performance characteristics of four BRCA1/BRCA2 gene mutation prediction models: LAMBDA, based on a checklist and scores developed from data on Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women; BRCAPRO, a Bayesian computer program; modified Couch tables based on regression analyses; and Myriad II tables collated by Myriad Genetics Laboratories. Family cancer history data were analyzed from 200 probands from the Mayo Clinic Familial Cancer Program, in a multispecialty tertiary care group practice. All probands had clinical testing for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations conducted in a single laboratory. For each model, performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC) and by tests of accuracy and dispersion. Cases "missed" by one or more models (model predicted less than 10% probability of mutation when a mutation was actually found) were compared across models. All models gave similar areas under the ROC curve of 0.71 to 0.76. All models except LAMBDA substantially under-predicted the numbers of carriers. All models were too dispersed. In terms of ranking, all prediction models performed reasonably well with similar performance characteristics. Model predictions were widely discrepant for some families. Review of cancer family histories by an experienced clinician continues to be vital to ensure that critical elements are not missed and that the most appropriate risk prediction figures are provided.

  9. Intelligent Systems: Terrestrial Observation and Prediction Using Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coughlan, Joseph C.

    2005-01-01

    NASA has made science and technology investments to better utilize its large space-borne remote sensing data holdings of the Earth. With the launch of Terra, NASA created a data-rich environment where the challenge is to fully utilize the data collected from EOS however, despite unprecedented amounts of observed data, there is a need for increasing the frequency, resolution, and diversity of observations. Current terrestrial models that use remote sensing data were constructed in a relatively data and compute limited era and do not take full advantage of on-line learning methods and assimilation techniques that can exploit these data. NASA has invested in visualization, data mining and knowledge discovery methods which have facilitated data exploitation, but these methods are insufficient for improving Earth science models that have extensive background knowledge nor do these methods refine understanding of complex processes. Investing in interdisciplinary teams that include computational scientists can lead to new models and systems for online operation and analysis of data that can autonomously improve in prediction skill over time.

  10. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  11. Prediction and near-field observation of skull-guided acoustic waves.

    PubMed

    Estrada, Héctor; Rebling, Johannes; Razansky, Daniel

    2017-06-21

    Ultrasound waves propagating in water or soft biological tissue are strongly reflected when encountering the skull, which limits the use of ultrasound-based techniques in transcranial imaging and therapeutic applications. Current knowledge on the acoustic properties of the cranial bone is restricted to far-field observations, leaving its near-field unexplored. We report on the existence of skull-guided acoustic waves, which was herein confirmed by near-field measurements of optoacoustically-induced responses in ex-vivo murine skulls immersed in water. Dispersion of the guided waves was found to reasonably agree with the prediction of a multilayered flat plate model. We observed a skull-guided wave propagation over a lateral distance of at least 3 mm, with a half-decay length in the direction perpendicular to the skull ranging from 35 to 300 μm at 6 and 0.5 MHz, respectively. Propagation losses are mostly attributed to the heterogenous acoustic properties of the skull. It is generally anticipated that our findings may facilitate and broaden the application of ultrasound-mediated techniques in brain diagnostics and therapy.

  12. Homology modeling, binding site identification and docking study of human angiotensin II type I (Ang II-AT1) receptor.

    PubMed

    Vyas, Vivek K; Ghate, Manjunath; Patel, Kinjal; Qureshi, Gulamnizami; Shah, Surmil

    2015-08-01

    Ang II-AT1 receptors play an important role in mediating virtually all of the physiological actions of Ang II. Several drugs (SARTANs) are available, which can block the AT1 receptor effectively and lower the blood pressure in the patients with hypertension. Currently, there is no experimental Ang II-AT1 structure available; therefore, in this study we modeled Ang II-AT1 receptor structure using homology modeling followed by identification and characterization of binding sites and thereby assessing druggability of the receptor. Homology models were constructed using MODELLER and I-TASSER server, refined and validated using PROCHECK in which 96.9% of 318 residues were present in the favoured regions of the Ramachandran plots. Various Ang II-AT1 receptor antagonist drugs are available in the market as antihypertensive drug, so we have performed docking study with the binding site prediction algorithms to predict different binding pockets on the modeled proteins. The identification of 3D structures and binding sites for various known drugs will guide us for the structure-based drug design of novel compounds as Ang II-AT1 receptor antagonists for the treatment of hypertension. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Kangaroo IGF-II is structurally and functionally similar to the human [Ser29]-IGF-II variant.

    PubMed

    Yandell, C A; Francis, G L; Wheldrake, J F; Upton, Z

    1999-06-01

    Kangaroo IGF-II has been purified from western grey kangaroo (Macropus fuliginosus) serum and characterised in a number of in vitro assays. In addition, the complete cDNA sequence of mature IGF-II has been obtained by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Comparison of the kangaroo IGF-II cDNA sequence with known IGF-II sequences from other species revealed that it is very similar to the human variant, [Ser29]-hIGF-II. Both the variant and kangaroo IGF-II contain an insert of nine nucleotides that encode the amino acids Leu-Pro-Gly at the junction of the B and C domains of the mature protein. The deduced kangaroo IGF-II protein sequence also contains three other amino acid changes that are not observed in human IGF-II. These amino acid differences share similarities with the changes described in many of the IGF-IIs reported for non-mammalian species. Characterisation of human IGF-II, kangaroo IGF-II, chicken IGF-II and [Ser29]-hIGF-II in a number of in vitro assays revealed that all four proteins are functionally very similar. No significant differences were observed in the ability of the IGF-IIs to bind to the bovine IGF-II/cation-independent mannose 6-phosphate receptor or to stimulate protein synthesis in rat L6 myoblasts. However, differences were observed in their abilities to bind to IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) present in human serum. Kangaroo, chicken and [Ser29]-hIGF-II had lower apparent affinities for human IGFBPs than did human IGF-II. Thus, it appears that the major circulating form of IGF-II in the kangaroo and a minor form of IGF-II found in human serum are structurally and functionally very similar. This suggests that the splice site that generates both the variant and major form of human IGF-II must have evolved after the divergence of marsupials from placental mammals.

  14. Observations of the 51.8 micron (O III) emission line in Orion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melnick, G.; Gull, G. E.; Harwit, M.; Ward, D. B.

    1978-01-01

    The 51.8 micron fine structure transition P2:3P2 3P1 for doubly ionized oxygen was observed in the Orion nebula. The observed line strength is of 5 plus or minus 3 times 10 to the minus 15th power watt/sq cm is in good agreement with theoretical predictions. Observations are consistent with the newly predicted 51.8 micron line position. The line lies close to an atmospheric water vapor feature at 51.7 micron, but is sufficiently distant so that corrections for this feature are straightforward. Observations of the 51.8 (O III) line are particularly important since the previously discovered 88 micron line from the same ion also is strong. This pair of lines should, therefore, yield new data about densities in observed H II regions; or else, if density data already are available from radio or other observations, the lines can be used to determine the differential dust absorption between 52 and 88 micron in front of heavily obscured regions.

  15. Predicting lanthanide cluster properties: a comparison with the observed optical spectra of HO 2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemukhin, A. V.; Ermilov, A. Yu.; Petrukhina, M. A.; Klotzbücher, W. E.; Smets, J.

    1997-10-01

    Ab initio pseudopotential calculations for HO and HO 2 have been carried out in order to support an assignment of the bands observed in UV-visible spectra of matrix isolated holmium species. SCF, MCSCF and configuration interaction (CI) procedures have been used with quasirelativistic pseudopotentials to compute the ground and excited state energies of HO and HO 2, together with the dipole transition moments. For HO 2, using a Q = 11 pseudopotential (describing the holmium atom in the 4f 106s 25d 1 electronic state), two transitions from the ground state σg2σu2πu2 to the states with principal excitations σu → πg and π u → σ g∗ are predicted at 499 and 524 nm. These two lines, with predicted close intensities, correlate nicely with the observed features at 498/504 and 558/563nm in the spectrum of matrix-isolated HO 2.

  16. Degassing of metals and metalloids from erupting seamount and mid-ocean ridge volcanoes: Observations and predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubin, Ken

    1997-09-01

    Recently, it has been reported that the element polonium degasses from mid-ocean ridge and seamount volcanoes during eruptions. Published and new observations on other volatile metal and metalloid elements can also be interpreted as indicating significant degassing of magmatic vapors during submarine eruptions. This process potentially plays an important role in the net transfer of chemical elements from erupting volcanoes to seawater in addition to that arising from sea floor hydrothermal systems. In this paper, a framework is constructed for predicting and assessing semiquantitatively the potential magnitude and chemical fingerprints in the water column of metal and metalloid degassing using (1) predictions from a summary of element volatilities during mafic subaerial volcanism worldwide and (2) limited data from submarine volcanic effusives. The latter include analyses of polonium and trace metals in near-volcano water masses sampled following a submarine eruption at Loihi seamount, Hawaii (1000 m bsl) in 1996. The element volatility predictions and observations show good agreement, considering the limited dataset. Some of the highest volatility main group and transition element enrichments in seawater over Loihi are predicted by the degassing mass transfer model I present. When expanded to cover all submarine volcanic activity, it is predicted that exit fluxes of these elements are up to 10 2-10 3 greater by degassing than by normal MOR hydrothermalism. In contrast, MOR exit fluxes of low volatility alkali and alkaline earth elements are likely 10 2-10 6 greater from hydrothermal inputs. Degassing inputs to the ocean are probably highly episodic, occurring almost entirely during eruptions; these are times of enhanced and abnormal hydrothermalism as well. Although major hydrothermal and degassing events may not be chemically recognizable in real water masses as wholly distinct entities, it is nevertheless possible to predict to what extent each process flavors

  17. Height of shock formation in the solar corona inferred from observations of type II radio bursts and coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Mäkelä, P.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Uddin, W.; Srivastava, A. K.; Joshi, N. C.; Chandra, R.; Manoharan, P. K.; Mahalakshmi, K.; Dwivedi, V. C.; Jain, R.; Awasthi, A. K.; Nitta, N. V.; Aschwanden, M. J.; Choudhary, D. P.

    2013-06-01

    Employing coronagraphic and EUV observations close to the solar surface made by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission, we determined the heliocentric distance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the starting time of associated metric type II bursts. We used the wave diameter and leading edge methods and measured the CME heights for a set of 32 metric type II bursts from solar cycle 24. We minimized the projection effects by making the measurements from a view that is roughly orthogonal to the direction of the ejection. We also chose image frames close to the onset times of the type II bursts, so no extrapolation was necessary. We found that the CMEs were located in the heliocentric distance range from 1.20 to 1.93 solar radii (Rs), with mean and median values of 1.43 and 1.38 Rs, respectively. We conclusively find that the shock formation can occur at heights substantially below 1.5 Rs. In a few cases, the CME height at type II onset was close to 2 Rs. In these cases, the starting frequency of the type II bursts was very low, in the range 25-40 MHz, which confirms that the shock can also form at larger heights. The starting frequencies of metric type II bursts have a weak correlation with the measured CME/shock heights and are consistent with the rapid decline of density with height in the inner corona.

  18. Height of Shock Formation in the Solar Corona Inferred from Observations of Type II Radio Bursts and Coronal Mass Ejections

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gopalswamy, N.; Xie, H.; Makela, P.; Yashiro, S.; Akiyama, S.; Uddin, W.; Srivastava, A. K.; Joshi, N. C.; Chandra, R.; Manoharan, P. K.

    2013-01-01

    Employing coronagraphic and EUV observations close to the solar surface made by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission, we determined the heliocentric distance of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the starting time of associated metric type II bursts. We used the wave diameter and leading edge methods and measured the CME heights for a set of 32 metric type II bursts from solar cycle 24. We minimized the projection effects by making the measurements from a view that is roughly orthogonal to the direction of the ejection. We also chose image frames close to the onset times of the type II bursts, so no extrapolation was necessary. We found that the CMEs were located in the heliocentric distance range from 1.20 to 1.93 solar radii (Rs), with mean and median values of 1.43 and 1.38 Rs, respectively. We conclusively find that the shock formation can occur at heights substantially below 1.5 Rs. In a few cases, the CME height at type II onset was close to 2 Rs. In these cases, the starting frequency of the type II bursts was very low, in the range 25-40 MHz, which confirms that the shock can also form at larger heights. The starting frequencies of metric type II bursts have a weak correlation with the measured CME/shock heights and are consistent with the rapid decline of density with height in the inner corona.

  19. Vertical temperature profile and mesospheric winds retrieval on Mars from CO ;millimeter observations. Comparison with general circulation model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavalié, T.; Billebaud, F.; Encrenaz, T.; Dobrijevic, M.; Brillet, J.; Forget, F.; Lellouch, E.

    2008-10-01

    Aims: We have recorded high spectral resolution spectra and derived precise atmospheric temperature profiles and wind velocities in the atmosphere of Mars. We have compared observations of the planetary mean thermal profile and mesospheric wind velocities on the disk, obtained with our millimetric observations of CO rotational lines, to predictions from the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) Mars General Circulation Model, as provided through the Mars Climate Database (MCD) numerical tool. Methods: We observed the atmosphere of Mars at CO(1-0) and CO(2-1) wavelengths with the IRAM 30-m antenna in June 2001 and November 2005. We retrieved the mean thermal profile of the planet from high and low spectral resolution data with an inversion method detailed here. High spectral resolution spectra were used to derive mesospheric wind velocities on the planetary disk. We also report here the use of 13CO(2-1) line core shifts to measure wind velocities at 40 km. Results: Neither the Mars Year 24 (MY24) nor the Dust Storm scenario from the Mars Climate Database (MCD) provides satisfactory fits to the 2001 and 2005 data when retrieving the thermal profiles. The Warm scenario only provides good fits for altitudes lower than 30 km. The atmosphere is warmer than predicted up to 60 km and then becomes colder. Dust loading could be the reason for this mismatch. The MCD MY24 scenario predicts a thermal inversion layer between 40 and 60 km, which is not retrieved from the high spectral resolution data. Our results are generally in agreement with other observations from 10 to 40 km in altitude, but our results obtained from the high spectral resolution spectra differ in the 40-70 km layer, where the instruments are the most sensitive. The wind velocities we retrieve from our 12CO observations confirm MCD predictions for 2001 and 2005. Velocities obtained from 13CO observations are consistent with MCD predictions in 2001, but are lower than predicted in 2005.

  20. Direct Observation of Very Large Zero-Field Splitting in a Tetrahedral Ni(II)Se4 Coordination Complex.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Shang-Da; Maganas, Dimitrios; Levesanos, Nikolaos; Ferentinos, Eleftherios; Haas, Sabrina; Thirunavukkuarasu, Komalavalli; Krzystek, J; Dressel, Martin; Bogani, Lapo; Neese, Frank; Kyritsis, Panayotis

    2015-10-14

    The high-spin (S = 1) tetrahedral Ni(II) complex [Ni{(i)Pr2P(Se)NP(Se)(i)Pr2}2] was investigated by magnetometry, spectroscopic, and quantum chemical methods. Angle-resolved magnetometry studies revealed the orientation of the magnetization principal axes. The very large zero-field splitting (zfs), D = 45.40(2) cm(-1), E = 1.91(2) cm(-1), of the complex was accurately determined by far-infrared magnetic spectroscopy, directly observing transitions between the spin sublevels of the triplet ground state. These are the largest zfs values ever determined--directly--for a high-spin Ni(II) complex. Ab initio calculations further probed the electronic structure of the system, elucidating the factors controlling the sign and magnitude of D. The latter is dominated by spin-orbit coupling contributions of the Ni ions, whereas the corresponding effects of the Se atoms are remarkably smaller.

  1. Collisionless damping of flows in the TJ-II stellarator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sánchez, E.; Kleiber, R.; Hatzky, R.; Borchardt, M.; Monreal, P.; Castejón, F.; López-Fraguas, A.; Sáez, X.; Velasco, J. L.; Calvo, I.; Alonso, A.; López-Bruna, D.

    2013-01-01

    The results of global linear gyrokinetic simulations of residual flows carried out with the code EUTERPE in the TJ-II three-dimensional geometry are reported. The linear response of the plasma to potential perturbations homogeneous in a magnetic surface shows several oscillation frequencies: a Geodesic-acoustic-mode-like frequency, in qualitative agreement with the formula given by Sugama and Watanabe (2006 Plasma Phys. 72 825), and a much lower frequency oscillation in agreement with the predictions of Mishchenko et al (2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 072309) and Helander et al (2011 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 53 054006) for stellarators. The dependence of both oscillations on ion and electron temperatures and the magnetic configuration is studied. The low-frequency oscillations are in the frequency range supporting the long-range correlations between potential signals experimentally observed in TJ-II.

  2. In Situ D-periodic Molecular Structure of Type II Collagen

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Antipova, Olga; Orgel, Joseph P.R.O.

    Collagens are essential components of extracellular matrices in multicellular animals. Fibrillar type II collagen is the most prominent component of articular cartilage and other cartilage-like tissues such as notochord. Its in situ macromolecular and packing structures have not been fully characterized, but an understanding of these attributes may help reveal mechanisms of tissue assembly and degradation (as in osteo- and rheumatoid arthritis). In some tissues such as lamprey notochord, the collagen fibrillar organization is naturally crystalline and may be studied by x-ray diffraction. We used diffraction data from native and derivative notochord tissue samples to solve the axial, D-periodic structuremore » of type II collagen via multiple isomorphous replacement. The electron density maps and heavy atom data revealed the conformation of the nonhelical telopeptides and the overall D-periodic structure of collagen type II in native tissues, data that were further supported by structure prediction and transmission electron microscopy. These results help to explain the observed differences in collagen type I and type II fibrillar architecture and indicate the collagen type II cross-link organization, which is crucial for fibrillogenesis. Transmission electron microscopy data show the close relationship between lamprey and mammalian collagen fibrils, even though the respective larger scale tissue architecture differs.« less

  3. Cultivating cohort studies for observational translational research.

    PubMed

    Ransohoff, David F

    2013-04-01

    "Discovery" research about molecular markers for diagnosis, prognosis, or prediction of response to therapy has frequently produced results that were not reproducible in subsequent studies. What are the reasons, and can observational cohorts be cultivated to provide strong and reliable answers to those questions? Experimental Selected examples are used to illustrate: (i) what features of research design provide strength and reliability in observational studies about markers of diagnosis, prognosis, and response to therapy? (ii) How can those design features be cultivated in existing observational cohorts, for example, within randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT), other existing observational research studies, or practice settings like health maintenance organization (HMOs)? Examples include a study of RNA expression profiles of tumor tissue to predict prognosis of breast cancer, a study of serum proteomics profiles to diagnose ovarian cancer, and a study of stool-based DNA assays to screen for colon cancer. Strengths and weaknesses of observational study design features are discussed, along with lessons about how features that help assure strength might be "cultivated" in the future. By considering these examples and others, it may be possible to develop a process of "cultivating cohorts" in ongoing RCTs, observational cohort studies, and practice settings like HMOs that have strong features of study design. Such an effort could produce sources of data and specimens to reliably answer questions about the use of molecular markers in diagnosis, prognosis, and response to therapy.

  4. [Formulation of combined predictive indicators using logistic regression model in predicting sepsis and prognosis].

    PubMed

    Duan, Liwei; Zhang, Sheng; Lin, Zhaofen

    2017-02-01

    rate were 78.00%, 93.36% and 87.47%, respectively. One patient was randomly selected, and the clinical data was substituted into the probability equation for prediction. The calculated value was 0.015, which was less than the cut-off value (0.518), indicating that the prognosis was non-sepsis at an accuracy of 87.47%. (2) For the predictive model only containing continuous covariants, the logistic model which combined acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score to predict in-hospital death events, both APACHE II score and SOFA score were independent risk factors for death. The AUC for the new predictive indicator was higher than that of APACHE II score and SOFA score (0.834 vs. 0.812, 0.813). The optimal cut-off value for the new combined predictive indicator in predicting in-hospital death events was 0.236, and the corresponding sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for the combined predictive indicator were 73.12%, 76.51% and 75.70%, respectively. One patient was randomly selected, and the APACHE II score and SOFA score was substituted into the probability equation for prediction. The calculated value was 0.570, which was higher than the cut-off value (0.236), indicating that the death prognosis at an accuracy of 75.70%. The combined predictive indicator, which is formulated by logistic regression models, is superior to any single indicator in predicting sepsis or in-hospital death events.

  5. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

    Treesearch

    Owen P. Cramer

    1958-01-01

    Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

  6. High resolution radio and optical observations of the central starburst in the low-metallicity dwarf galaxy II Zw 40

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kepley, Amanda A.; Reines, Amy E.; Johnson, Kelsey E.

    2014-02-01

    The extent to which star formation varies in galaxies with low masses, low metallicities, and high star formation rate surface densities is not well constrained. To gain insight into star formation under these physical conditions, this paper estimates the ionizing photon fluxes, masses, and ages for young massive clusters in the central region of II Zw 40—the prototypical low-metallicity dwarf starburst galaxy—from radio continuum and optical observations. Discrete, cluster-sized sources only account for half the total radio continuum emission; the remainder is diffuse. The young (≲ 5 Myr) central burst has a star formation rate surface density that significantly exceedsmore » that of the Milky Way. Three of the 13 sources have ionizing photon fluxes (and thus masses) greater than R136 in 30 Doradus. Although isolating the effects of galaxy mass and metallicity is difficult, the H II region luminosity function and the internal extinction in the center of II Zw 40 appear to be primarily driven by a merger-related starburst. The relatively flat H II region luminosity function may be the result of an increase in interstellar medium pressure during the merger and the internal extinction is similar to that generated by the clumpy and porous dust in other starburst galaxies.« less

  7. Atomic diffusion in metal-poor stars. II. Predictions for the Spite plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salaris, M.; Weiss, A.

    2001-09-01

    We have computed a grid of up-to-date stellar evolutionary models including atomic diffusion, in order to study the evolution with time of the surface Li abundance in low-mass metal-poor stars. We discuss in detail the dependence of the surface Li evolution on the initial metallicity and stellar mass, and compare the abundances obtained from our models with the available Li measurements in Pop II stars. While it is widely accepted that the existence of the Spite Li-plateau for these stars is a strong evidence that diffusion is inhibited, we show that, when taking into account observational errors, uncertainties in the Li abundance determinations, in the T_eff scale, and in particular the size of the observed samples of stars, the Spite plateau and the Li abundances in subgiant branch stars can be reproduced also by models including fully efficient diffusion, provided that the most metal-poor field halo objects are between 13.5 and 14 Gyr old. We provide the value of the minimum number of plateau stars to observe, for discriminating between efficient or inhibited diffusion. {From} our models with diffusion we derive that the average Li abundance along the Spite plateau is about a factor of 2 lower than the primordial one. As a consequence, the derived primordial Li abundance would be consistent with a high helium and low deuterium Big Bang Nucleosynthesis; this implies a high cosmological baryon density as inferred from the analyses of the cosmic microwave background.

  8. Average [O II] nebular emission associated with Mg II absorbers: dependence on Fe II absorption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Ravi; Srianand, Raghunathan; Petitjean, Patrick; Noterdaeme, Pasquier

    2018-05-01

    We investigate the effect of Fe II equivalent width (W2600) and fibre size on the average luminosity of [O II] λλ3727, 3729 nebular emission associated with Mg II absorbers (at 0.55 ≤ z ≤ 1.3) in the composite spectra of quasars obtained with 3 and 2 arcsec fibres in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We confirm the presence of strong correlations between [O II] luminosity (L_{[O II]}) and equivalent width (W2796) and redshift of Mg II absorbers. However, we show L_{[O II]} and average luminosity surface density suffer from fibre size effects. More importantly, for a given fibre size, the average L_{[O II]} strongly depends on the equivalent width of Fe II absorption lines and found to be higher for Mg II absorbers with R ≡W2600/W2796 ≥ 0.5. In fact, we show the observed strong correlations of L_{[O II]} with W2796 and z of Mg II absorbers are mainly driven by such systems. Direct [O II] detections also confirm the link between L_{[O II]} and R. Therefore, one has to pay attention to the fibre losses and dependence of redshift evolution of Mg II absorbers on W2600 before using them as a luminosity unbiased probe of global star formation rate density. We show that the [O II] nebular emission detected in the stacked spectrum is not dominated by few direct detections (i.e. detections ≥3σ significant level). On an average, the systems with R ≥ 0.5 and W2796 ≥ 2 Å are more reddened, showing colour excess E(B - V) ˜ 0.02, with respect to the systems with R < 0.5 and most likely trace the high H I column density systems.

  9. Prediction and observation of munitions burial in energetic storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klammler, Harald; Sheremet, Alexandru; Calantoni, Joseph

    2017-04-01

    The fate of munitions or unexploded ordnance (UXO) resting on a submarine sediment bed is a critical safety concern. Munitions may be transported in uncontrolled ways to create potentially dangerous situations at places like beaches or ports. Alternatively, they may remain in place or completely disappear for significant but unknown periods, after becoming buried in the sediment bed. Clearly, burial of munitions drastically complicates the detection and removal of potential threats. Here, we present field data of wave height and (surrogate) munitions burial depths near the 8-m isobath at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, North Carolina, observed between January and March 2015. The experiment captured a remarkable sequence of storms that included at least 10 events, of which 6 were characterized by wave fields of significant heights exceeding 2 m and with peak periods of approximately 10 s. During the strongest storm, waves of 14 s period and heights exceeding 2 m were recorded for more than 3 days; significant wave height reached 5 m at the peak of activity. At the end of the experiment, divers measured munition burial depths of up to 60 cm below the seabed level. However, the local bathymetry showed less than 5 cm variation between the before and after-storm states, suggesting the local net sediment accumulation / loss was negligible. The lack of bathymetric variability excludes the possibility of burial by a migrating bed form or by sediment deposition, and strongly indicates that the munitions sank into the bed. The depth of burial also suggest an extreme state of sand agitation during the storm. For predicting munitions burial depths, we explore existing analytical solutions for the dynamic interaction between waves and sediment. Measured time series of wave pressure near the sediment bed were converted into wave-induced changes in pore pressures and the effective stress states of the sediment. Different sediment failure criteria

  10. Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions.

    PubMed

    Teklehaimanot, Hailay D; Schwartz, Joel; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Lipsitch, Marc

    2004-11-19

    Timely and accurate information about the onset of malaria epidemics is essential for effective control activities in epidemic-prone regions. Early warning methods that provide earlier alerts (usually by the use of weather variables) may permit control measures to interrupt transmission earlier in the epidemic, perhaps at the expense of some level of accuracy. Expected case numbers were modeled using a Poisson regression with lagged weather factors in a 4th-degree polynomial distributed lag model. For each week, the numbers of malaria cases were predicted using coefficients obtained using all years except that for which the prediction was being made. The effectiveness of alerts generated by the prediction system was compared against that of alerts based on observed cases. The usefulness of the prediction system was evaluated in cold and hot districts. The system predicts the overall pattern of cases well, yet underestimates the height of the largest peaks. Relative to alerts triggered by observed cases, the alerts triggered by the predicted number of cases performed slightly worse, within 5% of the detection system. The prediction-based alerts were able to prevent 10-25% more cases at a given sensitivity in cold districts than in hot ones. The prediction of malaria cases using lagged weather performed well in identifying periods of increased malaria cases. Weather-derived predictions identified epidemics with reasonable accuracy and better timeliness than early detection systems; therefore, the prediction of malarial epidemics using weather is a plausible alternative to early detection systems.

  11. Cosmic reionization after Planck II: contribution from quasars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Sourav; Choudhury, T. Roy; Ferrara, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    In the light of the recent Planck downward revision of the electron scattering optical depth, and of the discovery of a faint active galactic nuclei (AGN) population at z > 4, we reassess the actual contribution of quasars to cosmic reionization. To this aim, we extend our previous Markov Chain Monte Carlo based data-constrained semi-analytic reionization model and study the role of quasars on global reionization history. We find that the quasars can alone reionize the Universe only for models with very high AGN emissivities at high redshift. These models are still allowed by the recent cosmic microwave background data and most of the observations related to H I reionization. However, they predict an extended and early He II reionization ending at z ≳ 4 and a much slower evolution in the mean He II Ly-α forest opacity than what the actual observation suggests. Thus, when we further constrain our model against the He II Ly-α forest data, this AGN-dominated scenario is found to be clearly ruled out at 2σ limits. The data seems to favour a standard two-component picture where quasar contributions become negligible at z ≳ 6 and a non-zero escape fraction of ∼ 10 per cent is needed from early-epoch galaxies. For such models, mean neutral hydrogen fraction decreases to ∼10-4 at z = 6.2 from ∼0.8 at z = 10.0 and helium becomes doubly ionized at much later time, z ∼ 3. We find that these models are as well in good agreement with the observed thermal evolution of IGM as opposed to models with very high AGN emissivities.

  12. An Accurate Measurement of the IGM HeII Lyman Alpha Forest toward a Newly Discovered UV-bright Quasar at z>3.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worseck, Gabor

    2016-10-01

    The advent of GALEX and COS have revolutionized our view of HeII reionization, the final major phase transition of the intergalactic medium. COS spectra of the HeII Lyman alpha forest have confirmed with high confidence the high HeII transmission that signifies the completion of HeII reionization at z 2.7. However, the handful of z>3.5 quasars observed to date show a set of HeII transmission 'spikes' and larger regions with non-zero transmission that suggest HeII reionization was well underway by z=4. This is in striking conflict with predictions from state-of-the-art radiative transfer simulations of a HeII reionization driven by bright quasars. Explaining these measurements may require either faint quasars or more exotic sources of hard photons at z>4, with concomitant implications for HI reionization. We propose here to observe J2354-2033, an FUV-bright quasar at z=3.786 that we recently discovered in a dedicated survey for likely HeII-transmitting quasars. With this COS/G140L spectrum, we would confirm that the quasar is valuable for studies of the HeII Lyman alpha forest by identifying possible interloping low-z HI absorbers, provide accurate measurements of the IGM HeII opacity, and provide only the third z>3.5 sightline that would allow for high-resolution G130M spectroscopy before the end of HST's mission. The proposed observations would mark only the fourth observation of the HeII Lyman alpha forest at z>3.7 and the source would be the 2nd-brightest known on the sky at these redshifts.

  13. Predictive Big Data Analytics: A Study of Parkinson’s Disease Using Large, Complex, Heterogeneous, Incongruent, Multi-Source and Incomplete Observations

    PubMed Central

    Dinov, Ivo D.; Heavner, Ben; Tang, Ming; Glusman, Gustavo; Chard, Kyle; Darcy, Mike; Madduri, Ravi; Pa, Judy; Spino, Cathie; Kesselman, Carl; Foster, Ian; Deutsch, Eric W.; Price, Nathan D.; Van Horn, John D.; Ames, Joseph; Clark, Kristi; Hood, Leroy; Hampstead, Benjamin M.; Dauer, William; Toga, Arthur W.

    2016-01-01

    Background A unique archive of Big Data on Parkinson’s Disease is collected, managed and disseminated by the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI). The integration of such complex and heterogeneous Big Data from multiple sources offers unparalleled opportunities to study the early stages of prevalent neurodegenerative processes, track their progression and quickly identify the efficacies of alternative treatments. Many previous human and animal studies have examined the relationship of Parkinson’s disease (PD) risk to trauma, genetics, environment, co-morbidities, or life style. The defining characteristics of Big Data–large size, incongruency, incompleteness, complexity, multiplicity of scales, and heterogeneity of information-generating sources–all pose challenges to the classical techniques for data management, processing, visualization and interpretation. We propose, implement, test and validate complementary model-based and model-free approaches for PD classification and prediction. To explore PD risk using Big Data methodology, we jointly processed complex PPMI imaging, genetics, clinical and demographic data. Methods and Findings Collective representation of the multi-source data facilitates the aggregation and harmonization of complex data elements. This enables joint modeling of the complete data, leading to the development of Big Data analytics, predictive synthesis, and statistical validation. Using heterogeneous PPMI data, we developed a comprehensive protocol for end-to-end data characterization, manipulation, processing, cleaning, analysis and validation. Specifically, we (i) introduce methods for rebalancing imbalanced cohorts, (ii) utilize a wide spectrum of classification methods to generate consistent and powerful phenotypic predictions, and (iii) generate reproducible machine-learning based classification that enables the reporting of model parameters and diagnostic forecasting based on new data. We evaluated several

  14. Microstructural effects on fracture toughness of polycrystalline ceramics in combined mode I and mode II loading

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Singh, D.; Shetty, D. K.

    1988-01-01

    Fracture toughness of polycrystalline alumina and ceria partially-stabilized tetragonal zirconia (CeO2-TZP) ceramics were assessed in combined mode I and mode II loading using precracked disk specimens in diametral compression. Stress states ranging from pure mode I, combined mode I and mode II, and pure mode II were obtained by aligning the center crack at specific angles relative to the loading diameter. The resulting mixed-mode fracture toughness envelope showed significant deviation to higher fracture toughness in mode II relative to the predictions of the linear elastic fracture mechanics theory. Critical comparison with corresponding results on soda-lime glass and fracture surface observations showed that crack surface resistance arising from grain interlocking and abrasion was the main source of the increased fracture toughness in mode II loading of the polycrystalline ceramics. The normalized fracture toughness for pure mode II loading, (KII/KIc), increased with increasing grain size for the CeO2-TZP ceramics. Quantitative fractography confirmed an increased percentage of transgranular fracture of the grains in mode II loading.

  15. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

    PubMed

    Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

    2000-02-01

    We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

  16. Comparison of observed rheological properties of hard wheat flour dough with predictions of the Giesekus-Leonov, White-Metzner and Phan-Thien Tanner models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dhanasekharan, M.; Huang, H.; Kokini, J. L.; Janes, H. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    The measured rheological behavior of hard wheat flour dough was predicted using three nonlinear differential viscoelastic models. The Phan-Thien Tanner model gave good zero shear viscosity prediction, but overpredicted the shear viscosity at higher shear rates and the transient and extensional properties. The Giesekus-Leonov model gave similar predictions to the Phan-Thien Tanner model, but the extensional viscosity prediction showed extension thickening. Using high values of the mobility factor, extension thinning behavior was observed but the predictions were not satisfactory. The White-Metzner model gave good predictions of the steady shear viscosity and the first normal stress coefficient but it was unable to predict the uniaxial extensional viscosity as it exhibited asymptotic behavior in the tested extensional rates. It also predicted the transient shear properties with moderate accuracy in the transient phase, but very well at higher times, compared to the Phan-Thien Tanner model and the Giesekus-Leonov model. None of the models predicted all observed data consistently well. Overall the White-Metzner model appeared to make the best predictions of all the observed data.

  17. Upper Stratospheric Temperature Climatology Derived from SAGE II Observations: Preliminary Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, P.-H.; Cunnold, D. M.; Wang, H. J.; Chu, W. P.; Thomason, L. W.

    2002-01-01

    This study shows that the temperature information in the upper stratosphere can be derived from the SAGE II 385-mn observations. The preliminary results indicate that the zonal mean temperature increases with altitude below 50 km and decreases above 50 km. At 50 km, a regional maximum of 263 K is located in the tropics, and a minimum of 261 K occurs in the subtropics in both hemispheres. The derived long-term temperature changes from 1985 to 1997 reveal a statistically significant negative trend of -2 to -2.5 K/decade in the tropical upper stratosphere and about -2 K/decade in the subtropics near the stratopause. At latitudes poleward of 50, the results show a statistically significant positive trend of about 1 K/decade in the upper stratosphere. The preliminary results also show large annual temperature oscillations in the extratropics with a maximum amplitude of approx. 8 K located at about 44 km near 50 in both hemispheres during local summer. In addition, the semiannual oscillation is found to be a maximum in the tropics with a peak amplitude of approx. 3.3 K located at about 42 km during the equinox.

  18. Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

    2011-01-01

    A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

  19. Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted

    PubMed Central

    Røe, Cecilie; Skandsen, Toril; Manskow, Unn; Ader, Tiina; Anke, Audny

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury) model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC). Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic) (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light), as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT). Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7) years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5) was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI. PMID:26688614

  20. SAGE II Ozone Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cunnold, Derek; Wang, Ray

    2002-01-01

    Publications from 1999-2002 describing research funded by the SAGE II contract to Dr. Cunnold and Dr. Wang are listed below. Our most recent accomplishments include a detailed analysis of the quality of SAGE II, v6.1, ozone measurements below 20 km altitude (Wang et al., 2002 and Kar et al., 2002) and an analysis of the consistency between SAGE upper stratospheric ozone trends and model predictions with emphasis on hemispheric asymmetry (Li et al., 2001). Abstracts of the 11 papers are attached.

  1. Prediction of human observer performance in a 2-alternative forced choice low-contrast detection task using channelized Hotelling observer: Impact of radiation dose and reconstruction algorithms

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yu Lifeng; Leng Shuai; Chen Lingyun

    2013-04-15

    Purpose: Efficient optimization of CT protocols demands a quantitative approach to predicting human observer performance on specific tasks at various scan and reconstruction settings. The goal of this work was to investigate how well a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) can predict human observer performance on 2-alternative forced choice (2AFC) lesion-detection tasks at various dose levels and two different reconstruction algorithms: a filtered-backprojection (FBP) and an iterative reconstruction (IR) method. Methods: A 35 Multiplication-Sign 26 cm{sup 2} torso-shaped phantom filled with water was used to simulate an average-sized patient. Three rods with different diameters (small: 3 mm; medium: 5 mm; large:more » 9 mm) were placed in the center region of the phantom to simulate small, medium, and large lesions. The contrast relative to background was -15 HU at 120 kV. The phantom was scanned 100 times using automatic exposure control each at 60, 120, 240, 360, and 480 quality reference mAs on a 128-slice scanner. After removing the three rods, the water phantom was again scanned 100 times to provide signal-absent background images at the exact same locations. By extracting regions of interest around the three rods and on the signal-absent images, the authors generated 21 2AFC studies. Each 2AFC study had 100 trials, with each trial consisting of a signal-present image and a signal-absent image side-by-side in randomized order. In total, 2100 trials were presented to both the model and human observers. Four medical physicists acted as human observers. For the model observer, the authors used a CHO with Gabor channels, which involves six channel passbands, five orientations, and two phases, leading to a total of 60 channels. The performance predicted by the CHO was compared with that obtained by four medical physicists at each 2AFC study. Results: The human and model observers were highly correlated at each dose level for each lesion size for both FBP and IR

  2. A prognostic mutation panel for predicting cancer recurrence in stages II and III colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Sho, Shonan; Court, Colin M; Winograd, Paul; Russell, Marcia M; Tomlinson, James S

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 20-40% of stage II/III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients develop relapse. Clinicopathological factors alone are limited in detecting these patients, resulting in potential under/over-treatment. We sought to identify a prognostic tumor mutational profile that could predict CRC recurrence. Whole-exome sequencing data were obtained for 207 patients with stage II/III CRC from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Mutational landscape in relapse-free versus relapsed cohort was compared using Fisher's exact test, followed by multivariate Cox regression to identify genes associated with cancer recurrence. Bootstrap-validation was used to examine internal/external validity. We identified five prognostic genes (APAF1, DIAPH2, NTNG1, USP7, and VAV2), which were combined to form a prognostic mutation panel. Patients with ≥1 mutation(s) within this five-gene panel had worse prognosis (3-yr relapse-free survival [RFS]: 53.0%), compared to patients with no mutation (3-yr RFS: 84.3%). In multivariate analysis, the five-gene panel remained prognostic for cancer recurrence independent of stage and high-risk features (hazard ratio 3.63, 95%CI [1.93-6.83], P < 0.0001). Furthermore, its prognostic accuracy was superior to the American Joint Commission on Cancer classification (concordance-index: 0.70 vs 0.54). Our proposed mutation panel identifies CRC patients at high-risk for recurrence, which may help guide adjuvant therapy and post-operative surveillance protocols. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Predictions for Swift Follow-up Observations of Advanced LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Racusin, Judith; Evans, Phil; Connaughton, Valerie

    2015-04-01

    The likely detection of gravitational waves associated with the inspiral of neutron star binaries by the upcoming advanced LIGO/Virgo observatories will be complemented by searches for electromagnetic counterparts over large areas of the sky by Swift and other observatories. As short gamma-ray bursts (GRB) are the most likely electromagnetic counterpart candidates to these sources, we can make predictions based upon the last decade of GRB observations by Swift and Fermi. Swift is uniquely capable of accurately localizing new transients rapidly over large areas of the sky in single and tiled pointings, enabling ground-based follow-up. We describe simulations of the detectability of short GRB afterglows by Swift given existing and hypothetical tiling schemes with realistic observing conditions and delays, which guide the optimal observing strategy and improvements provided by coincident detection with observatories such as Fermi-GBM.

  4. A method for evaluating the importance of system state observations to model predictions, with application to the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tiedeman, Claire; Ely, D. Matthew; Hill, Mary C.; O'Brien, Grady M.

    2004-01-01

    We develop a new observation‐prediction (OPR) statistic for evaluating the importance of system state observations to model predictions. The OPR statistic measures the change in prediction uncertainty produced when an observation is added to or removed from an existing monitoring network, and it can be used to guide refinement and enhancement of the network. Prediction uncertainty is approximated using a first‐order second‐moment method. We apply the OPR statistic to a model of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) to evaluate the importance of existing and potential hydraulic head observations to predicted advective transport paths in the saturated zone underlying Yucca Mountain and underground testing areas on the Nevada Test Site. Important existing observations tend to be far from the predicted paths, and many unimportant observations are in areas of high observation density. These results can be used to select locations at which increased observation accuracy would be beneficial and locations that could be removed from the network. Important potential observations are mostly in areas of high hydraulic gradient far from the paths. Results for both existing and potential observations are related to the flow system dynamics and coarse parameter zonation in the DVRFS model. If system properties in different locations are as similar as the zonation assumes, then the OPR results illustrate a data collection opportunity whereby observations in distant, high‐gradient areas can provide information about properties in flatter‐gradient areas near the paths. If this similarity is suspect, then the analysis produces a different type of data collection opportunity involving testing of model assumptions critical to the OPR results.

  5. Type II supernovae in low luminosity host galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutiérrez, C. P.; Anderson, J. P.; Sullivan, M.; Dessart, L.; González-Gaitan, S.; Galbany, L.; Dimitriadis, G.; Arcavi, I.; Bufano, F.; Chen, T.-W.; Dennefeld, M.; Gromadzki, M.; Haislip, J. B.; Hosseinzadeh, G.; Howell, D. A.; Inserra, C.; Kankare, E.; Leloudas, G.; Maguire, K.; McCully, C.; Morrell, N.; E, F. Olivares; Pignata, G.; Reichart, D. E.; Reynolds, T.; Smartt, S. J.; Sollerman, J.; Taddia, F.; Takáts, K.; Terreran, G.; Valenti, S.; Young, D. R.

    2018-06-01

    We present an analysis of a new sample of type II core-collapse supernovae (SNe II) occurring within low-luminosity galaxies, comparing these with a sample of events in brighter hosts. Our analysis is performed comparing SN II spectral and photometric parameters and estimating the influence of metallicity (inferred from host luminosity differences) on SN II transient properties. We measure the SN absolute magnitude at maximum, the light-curve plateau duration, the optically thick duration, and the plateau decline rate in the V -band, together with expansion velocities and pseudo-equivalent-widths (pEWs) of several absorption lines in the SN spectra. For the SN host galaxies, we estimate the absolute magnitude and the stellar mass, a proxy for the metallicity of the host galaxy. SNe II exploding in low luminosity galaxies display weaker pEWs of Fe II λ5018, confirming the theoretical prediction that metal lines in SN II spectra should correlate with metallicity. We also find that SNe II in low-luminosity hosts have generally slower declining light curves and display weaker absorption lines. We find no relationship between the plateau duration or the expansion velocities with SN environment, suggesting that the hydrogen envelope mass and the explosion energy are not correlated with the metallicity of the host galaxy. This result supports recent predictions that mass-loss for red supergiants is independent of metallicity.

  6. Comparative study on kinetic adsorption of Cu(II), Cd(II) and Ni(II) ions from aqueous solutions using activated sludge and dried sludge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ong, Soon-An; Toorisaka, Eiichi; Hirata, Makoto; Hano, Tadashi

    2013-03-01

    The adsorption of Cu(II), Cd(II) and Ni(II) ions from aqueous solutions by activated sludge and dried sludge was investigated under laboratory conditions to assess its potential in removing metal ions. The adsorption behavior of metal ions onto activated sludge and dried sludge was analyzed with Weber-Morris intra-particle diffusion model, Lagergren first-order model and pseudo second-order model. The rate constant of intra-particle diffusion on activated sludge and dried sludge increased in the sequence of Cu(II) > Ni(II) > Cd(II). According to the regression coefficients, it was observed that the kinetic adsorption data can fit better by the pseudo second-order model compared to the first-order Lagergren model with R 2 > 0.997. The adsorption capacities of metal ions onto activated sludge and dried sludge followed the sequence Ni(II) ≈ Cu(II) > Cd(II) and Cu(II) > Ni(II) > Cd(II).

  7. Using DFT methodology for more reliable predictive models: Design of inhibitors of Golgi α-Mannosidase II.

    PubMed

    Bobovská, Adela; Tvaroška, Igor; Kóňa, Juraj

    2016-05-01

    Human Golgi α-mannosidase II (GMII), a zinc ion co-factor dependent glycoside hydrolase (E.C.3.2.1.114), is a pharmaceutical target for the design of inhibitors with anti-cancer activity. The discovery of an effective inhibitor is complicated by the fact that all known potent inhibitors of GMII are involved in unwanted co-inhibition with lysosomal α-mannosidase (LMan, E.C.3.2.1.24), a relative to GMII. Routine empirical QSAR models for both GMII and LMan did not work with a required accuracy. Therefore, we have developed a fast computational protocol to build predictive models combining interaction energy descriptors from an empirical docking scoring function (Glide-Schrödinger), Linear Interaction Energy (LIE) method, and quantum mechanical density functional theory (QM-DFT) calculations. The QSAR models were built and validated with a library of structurally diverse GMII and LMan inhibitors and non-active compounds. A critical role of QM-DFT descriptors for the more accurate prediction abilities of the models is demonstrated. The predictive ability of the models was significantly improved when going from the empirical docking scoring function to mixed empirical-QM-DFT QSAR models (Q(2)=0.78-0.86 when cross-validation procedures were carried out; and R(2)=0.81-0.83 for a testing set). The average error for the predicted ΔGbind decreased to 0.8-1.1kcalmol(-1). Also, 76-80% of non-active compounds were successfully filtered out from GMII and LMan inhibitors. The QSAR models with the fragmented QM-DFT descriptors may find a useful application in structure-based drug design where pure empirical and force field methods reached their limits and where quantum mechanics effects are critical for ligand-receptor interactions. The optimized models will apply in lead optimization processes for GMII drug developments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Predicted Attenuation Relation and Observed Ground Motion of Gorkha Nepal Earthquake of 25 April 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, R. P.; Ahmad, R.

    2015-12-01

    A comparison of recent observed ground motion parameters of recent Gorkha Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 (Mw 7.8) with the predicted ground motion parameters using exitsing attenuation relation of the Himalayan region will be presented. The recent earthquake took about 8000 lives and destroyed thousands of poor quality of buildings and the earthquake was felt by millions of people living in Nepal, China, India, Bangladesh, and Bhutan. The knowledge of ground parameters are very important in developing seismic code of seismic prone regions like Himalaya for better design of buildings. The ground parameters recorded in recent earthquake event and aftershocks are compared with attenuation relations for the Himalayan region, the predicted ground motion parameters show good correlation with the observed ground parameters. The results will be of great use to Civil engineers in updating existing building codes in the Himlayan and surrounding regions and also for the evaluation of seismic hazards. The results clearly show that the attenuation relation developed for the Himalayan region should be only used, other attenuation relations based on other regions fail to provide good estimate of observed ground motion parameters.

  9. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  10. A Study of the Vertical Structure of Tropical (20 deg S-20 deg N) Optically Thin Clouds from SAGE II Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Pi-Huan; Minnis, Patrick; McCormick, M. Patrick; Kent, Geoffrey S.; Yue, Glenn K.; Young, David F.; Skeens, Kristi M.

    1998-01-01

    The tropical cloud data obtained by the satellite instrument of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II from October 1984 to May 1991 have been used to study cloud vertical distribution, including thickness and multilayer structure, and to estimate cloud optical depth. The results indicate that the SAGE-II-observed clouds are generally optically thin clouds, corresponding to a range of optical depth between approximately 8 x 10(exp -4) and 3 x 10(exp -1) with a mean of about 0.035. Two-thirds are classified as subvisual cirrus and one-third thin cirrus. Clouds between 2- to 3-km thick occur most frequently. Approximately 30% of the SAGE II cloud measurements are isolated single-layer clouds, while 65% are high clouds contiguous with an underlying opaque cloud that terminates the SAGE II profile. Thin clouds above detached opaque clouds at altitudes greater than 6.5 km occur less often. Only about 3% of the SAGE II single-layer clouds are located above the tropopause, while 58% of the cloud layers never reach the tropopause. More than one-third of the clouds appear at the tropopause. This study also shows that clouds occur more frequently and extend higher above the tropopause over the western Pacific than than over the eastern Pacific, especially during northern winter. The uncertainty of the derived results due to the SAGE II sampling constraints, data processing, and cloud characteristics is discussed.

  11. Observed versus predicted carboxyhemoglobin levels in cellulose triacetate workers exposed to methylene chloride.

    PubMed

    Amsel, J; Soden, K J; Sielken, R L; Valdez-Flora, C

    2001-08-01

    Occupational exposure to methylene chloride, together with carboxyhemoglobin concentrations, has not been studied previously. Carboxyhemoglobin levels were measured in non-smoking employees exposed to varying concentrations of methylene chloride during the manufacture of cellulose triacetate fibers. The observed carboxyhemoglobin levels were compared to predicted concentrations using a pharmacokinetic model. The presence of carboxyhemoglobin in non-smokers exposed to methylene chloride results primarily from the metabolism of methylene chloride in the liver and exhibits a linear dose-response relationship. The observed levels of carboxyhemoglobin in non-smokers at the end of an 8-hour shift depend upon exposures to methylene chloride that day but are independent of occupational exposures on previous days. The observed daily concentrations of carboxyhemoglobin are consistent with predicted concentrations using a pharmacokinetic model. While varying exposure patterns were shown to change the rate of metabolite formation at the end of shift, these same exposure patterns had almost no effect on the total amount of carbon monoxide in the blood. While the present study addresses the relationship between methylene chloride, carbon monoxide, carboxyhemoglobin and ischemic heart disease, it does not address the issue of tumorigenicity, which is also the basis for the current U.S. Occupational Health and Safety workplace exposure limit of 25 ppm. This study provides support for the conclusion that the current American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists 8-hour Threshold Limit Value of 50 ppm adequately protects human health with regard to ischemic heart disease and carboxyhemoglobin formation among non-smokers. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  12. Separated Fringe Packet Observations with the CHARA Array. II. Omega Andromeda, HD 178911, and Xi Cephei

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-31

    Printed in the U.S.A. SEPARATED FRINGE PACKET OBSERVATIONS WITH THE CHARA ARRAY. II. ω ANDROMEDA , HD 178911, AND ξ CEPHEI C. D. Farrington1, T. A...calibration star is not needed, and the SFPs can provide an accurate vector separation. In this paper, we apply the SFP approach to ω Andromeda , HD 178911...and 0.860 ± 0.051M and 39.54 ± 1.85 mas for ω Andromeda , for HD 178911 of 0.802 ± 0.055M and 0.622 ± 0.053M with 28.26 ± 1.70 mas, and masses of

  13. A predictive index of biomarkers for ictogenesis from tier I safety pharmacology testing that may warrant tier II EEG studies.

    PubMed

    Gauvin, David V; Zimmermann, Zachary J; Yoder, Joshua; Harter, Marci; Holdsworth, David; Kilgus, Quinn; May, Jonelle; Dalton, Jill; Baird, Theodore J

    2018-05-08

    Three significant contributions to the field of safety pharmacology were recently published detailing the use of electroencephalography (EEG) by telemetry in a critical role in the successful evaluation of a compound during drug development (1] Authier, Delatte, Kallman, Stevens & Markgraf; JPTM 2016; 81:274-285; 2] Accardi, Pugsley, Forster, Troncy, Huang & Authier; JPTM; 81: 47-59; 3] Bassett, Troncy, Pouliot, Paquette, Ascaha, & Authier; JPTM 2016; 70: 230-240). These authors present a convincing case for monitoring neocortical biopotential waveforms (EEG, ECoG, etc) during preclinical toxicology studies as an opportunity for early identification of a central nervous system (CNS) risk during Investigational New Drug (IND) Enabling Studies. This review is about "ictogenesis" not "epileptogenesis". It is intended to characterize overt behavioral and physiological changes suggestive of drug-induced neurotoxicity/ictogenesis in experimental animals during Tier 1 safety pharmacology testing, prior to first dose administration in man. It is the presence of these predictive or comorbid biomarkers expressed during the requisite conduct of daily clinical or cage side observations, and in early ICH S7A Tier I CNS, pulmonary and cardiovascular safety study designs that should initiate an early conversation regarding Tier II inclusion of EEG monitoring. We conclude that there is no single definitive clinical marker for seizure liability but plasma exposures might add to set proper safety margins when clinical convulsions are observed. Even the observation of a study-related full tonic-clonic convulsion does not establish solid ground to require the financial and temporal investment of a full EEG study under the current regulatory standards. For purposes of this review, we have adopted the FDA term "sponsor" as it refers to any person who takes the responsibility for and initiates a nonclinical investigations of new molecular entities; FDA uses the term "sponsor" primarily

  14. Using Pop-II models to predict effects of wolf predation and hunter harvests on elk, mule deer, and moose on the northern range

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mack, John A.; Singer, Francis J.

    1993-01-01

    The effects of establishing a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park were predicted for three ungulate species—elk (Cervus elaphus), mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and moose (Alces alces)—using previously developed POP-II population models. We developed models for 78 and 100 wolves. For each wolf population, we ran scenarios using wolf predation rates of 9, 12, and 15 ungulates/wolf/year. With 78 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our modeled elk population estimated were 5-18% smaller than the model estimate without wolves. With 100 wolves and the antlerless elk harvest reduced 27%, our elk population estimated were 11-30% smaller than the population estimates without wolves. Wolf predation effects were greater on the modeled mule deer population than on elk. With 78 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, we predicted the mule deer population could be 13-44% larger than without wolves. With 100 wolves and no antlerless deer harvest, the mule deer population was 0-36% larger than without wolves. After wolf recovery, our POP-II models suggested moose harvests would have to be reduced at least 50% to maintain moose numbers at the levels predicted when wolves were not present. Mule deer and moose population data are limited, and these wolf predation effects may be overestimated if population sizes or male-female ratios were underestimated in our population models. We recommend additional mule deer and moose population data be obtained.

  15. Relationship between the Prediction Accuracy of Tsunami Inundation and Relative Distribution of Tsunami Source and Observation Arrays: A Case Study in Tokyo Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A rapid and precise tsunami forecast based on offshore monitoring is getting attention to reduce human losses due to devastating tsunami inundation. We developed a forecast method based on the combination of hierarchical Bayesian inversion with pre-computed database and rapid post-computing of tsunami inundation. The method was applied to Tokyo bay to evaluate the efficiency of observation arrays against three tsunamigenic earthquakes. One is a scenario earthquake at Nankai trough and the other two are historic ones of Genroku in 1703 and Enpo in 1677. In general, rich observation array near the tsunami source has an advantage in both accuracy and rapidness of tsunami forecast. To examine the effect of observation time length we used four types of data with the lengths of 5, 10, 20 and 45 minutes after the earthquake occurrences. Prediction accuracy of tsunami inundation was evaluated by the simulated tsunami inundation areas around Tokyo bay due to target earthquakes. The shortest time length of accurate prediction varied with target earthquakes. Here, accurate prediction means the simulated values fall within the 95% credible intervals of prediction. In Enpo earthquake case, 5-minutes observation is enough for accurate prediction for Tokyo bay, but 10-minutes and 45-minutes are needed in the case of Nankai trough and Genroku, respectively. The difference of the shortest time length for accurate prediction shows the strong relationship with the relative distance from the tsunami source and observation arrays. In the Enpo case, offshore tsunami observation points are densely distributed even in the source region. So, accurate prediction can be rapidly achieved within 5 minutes. This precise prediction is useful for early warnings. Even in the worst case of Genroku, where less observation points are available near the source, accurate prediction can be obtained within 45 minutes. This information can be useful to figure out the outline of the hazard in an early

  16. Nucleosynthesis Predictions for Intermediate-Mass AGB Stars: Comparison to Observations of Type I Planetary Nebulae

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karakas, Amanda I.; vanRaai, Mark A.; Lugaro, Maria; Sterling, Nicholas C.; Dinerstein, Harriet L.

    2008-01-01

    Type I planetary nebulae (PNe) have high He/H and N/O ratios and are thought to be descendants of stars with initial masses of approx. 3-8 Stellar Mass. These characteristics indicate that the progenitor stars experienced proton-capture nucleosynthesis at the base of the convective envelope, in addition to the slow neutron capture process operating in the He-shell (the s-process). We compare the predicted abundances of elements up to Sr from models of intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars to measured abundances in Type I PNe. In particular, we compare predictions and observations for the light trans-iron elements Se and Kr, in order to constrain convective mixing and the s-process in these stars. A partial mixing zone is included in selected models to explore the effect of a C-13 pocket on the s-process yields. The solar-metallicity models produce enrichments of [(Se, Kr)/Fe] less than or approx. 0.6, consistent with Galactic Type I PNe where the observed enhancements are typically less than or approx. 0.3 dex, while lower metallicity models predict larger enrichments of C, N, Se, and Kr. O destruction occurs in the most massive models but it is not efficient enough to account for the greater than or approx. 0.3 dex O depletions observed in some Type I PNe. It is not possible to reach firm conclusions regarding the neutron source operating in massive AGB stars from Se and Kr abundances in Type I PNe; abundances for more s-process elements may help to distinguish between the two neutron sources. We predict that only the most massive (M grester than or approx.5 Stellar Mass) models would evolve into Type I PNe, indicating that extra-mixing processes are active in lower-mass stars (3-4 Stellar Mass), if these stars are to evolve into Type I PNe.

  17. Streamflow Prediction in Ungauged, Irrigated Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, M.; Thompson, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    The international "predictions in ungauged basins" or "PUB" effort has broadened and improved the tools available to support water resources management in sparsely observed regions. These tools have, however, been primarily focused on regions with limited diversion of surface or shallow groundwater resources. Incorporating anthropogenic activity into PUB methods is essential given the high level of development of many basins. We extended an existing stochastic framework used to predict the flow duration curve to explore the effects of irrigation on streamflow dynamics. Four canonical scenarios were considered in which irrigation water was (i) primarily sourced from water imports, (ii) primarily sourced from direct in-channel diversions, (iii) sourced from shallow groundwater with direct connectivity to stream channels, or (iv) sourced from deep groundwater that is indirectly connected to surface flow via a shallow aquifer. By comparing the predicted flow duration curves to those predicted by accounting for climate and geomorphic factors in isolation, specific "fingerprints" of human water withdrawals could be identified for the different irrigation scenarios, and shown to be sensitive to irrigation volumes and scheduling. The results provide a first insight into PUB methodologies that could be employed in heavily managed basins.

  18. The First Detection of [O IV] from an Ultraluminous X-ray Source with Spitzer. II. Evidence for High Luminosity in Holmberg II ULX

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berghea, C. T.; Dudik, R. P.; Weaver, K. A.; Kallman, T. R.

    2009-01-01

    This is the second of two papers examining Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) observations of the ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) in Holmberg II. Here we perform detailed photoionization modeling of they infrared lines. Our analysis suggests that the luminosity and morphology of the [O IV] 25.89 micron emission line is consistent with photoionization by the soft X-ray and far ultraviolet (FUV) radiation from the accretion disk of the binary system and inconsistent with narrow beaming. We show that the emission nebula is matter-bounded both in the line of sight direction and to the east, and probably radiation-bounded to the west. A bolometric luminosity in excess of 1040 erg per second would be needed to produce the measured [O IV] flux. We use modeling and previously published studies to conclude that shacks likely contribute very little, if at all, to the high excitation line fluxes observed in the Holmberg II ULX. Additionally, we find that the spectral type of the companion star has a surprisingly strong effect on they predicted strength of the [O IV] emission. This finding could explain the origin of [O IV] hi some starburst systems containing black hole binaries.

  19. Thermodynamic Analysis of Nickel(II) and Zinc(II) Adsorption to Biochar.

    PubMed

    Alam, Md Samrat; Gorman-Lewis, Drew; Chen, Ning; Flynn, Shannon L; Ok, Yong Sik; Konhauser, Kurt O; Alessi, Daniel S

    2018-05-21

    While numerous studies have investigated metal uptake from solution by biochar, few of these have developed a mechanistic understanding of the adsorption reactions that occur at the biochar surface. In this study, we explore a combined modeling and spectroscopic approach for the first time to describe the molecular level adsorption of Ni(II) and Zn(II) to five types of biochar. Following thorough characterization, potentiometric titrations were carried out to measure the proton (H + ) reactivity of each biochar, and the data was used to develop protonation models. Surface complexation modeling (SCM) supported by synchrotron-based extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) was then used to gain insights into the molecular scale metal-biochar surface reactions. The SCM approach was combined with isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC) data to determine the thermodynamic driving forces of metal adsorption. Our results show that the reactivity of biochar toward Ni(II) and Zn(II) directly relates to the site densities of biochar. EXAFS along with FT-IR analyses, suggest that Ni(II) and Zn(II) adsorption occurred primarily through proton-active carboxyl (-COOH) and hydroxyl (-OH) functional groups on the biochar surface. SCM-ITC analyses revealed that the enthalpies of protonation are exothermic and Ni(II) and Zn(II) complexes with biochar surface are slightly exothermic to slightly endothermic. The results obtained from these combined approaches contribute to the better understanding of molecular scale metal adsorption onto the biochar surface, and will facilitate the further development of thermodynamics-based, predictive approaches to biochar removal of metals from contaminated water.

  20. Density Bounded H II Regions: Ionization of the Diffuse Interstellar and Intergalactic Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zurita, A.; Rozas, M.; Beckman, J. E.

    2000-05-01

    We present a study of the diffuse ionized gas (DIG) for a sample of nearby spiral galaxies using Hα images, after constructing their H II region catalogues. The integrated Hα emission of the DIG accounts for between 25% to 60% of the total Hα of the galaxy and a high ionizing photon flux is necessary to keep this gas ionized. We suggest that Lyman photons leaking from the most luminous H II regions are the prime source of the ionization of the DIG; they are more than enough to ionize the measured DIG in the model in which H II regions with luminosity in Hα greater than LStr=1038.6 erg sme are density bounded. We go on to show that this model can quantify the ionization observed in the skins of the high velocity clouds well above the plane of our Galaxy and predicts the ionization of the intergalactic medium.

  1. How Clean Are Hotel Rooms? Part I: Visual Observations vs. Microbiological Contamination.

    PubMed

    Almanza, Barbara A; Kirsch, Katie; Kline, Sheryl Fried; Sirsat, Sujata; Stroia, Olivia; Choi, Jin Kyung; Neal, Jay

    2015-01-01

    Current evidence of hotel room cleanliness is based on observation rather than empirically based microbial assessment. The purpose of the study described here was to determine if observation provides an accurate indicator of cleanliness. Results demonstrated that visual assessment did not accurately predict microbial contamination. Although testing standards have not yet been established for hotel rooms and will be evaluated in Part II of the authors' study, potential microbial hazards included the sponge and mop (housekeeping cart), toilet, bathroom floor, bathroom sink, and light switch. Hotel managers should increase cleaning in key areas to reduce guest exposure to harmful bacteria.

  2. A systematic review of the factors associated with interest in predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes and heart disease.

    PubMed

    Collins, J; Ryan, L; Truby, H

    2014-10-01

    In the future, it may be possible for individuals to take a genetic test to determine their genetic predisposition towards developing lifestyle-related chronic diseases. A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to identify the factors associated with an interest in having predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes and heart disease amongst unaffected adults. Ovid Medline, PsycINFO and EMBASE online databases were searched using predefined search terms. Publications meeting the inclusion criteria (English language, free-living adult population not selected as a result of their disease diagnosis, reporting interest as an outcome, not related to a single gene inherited disease) were assessed for quality and content. Narrative synthesis of the results was undertaken. From the 2329 publications retrieved, eight studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Overall, the evidence base was small but of positive quality. Interest was associated with personal attitudes towards disease risk and the provision of information about genetic testing, shaped by perceived risk of disease and expected outcomes of testing. The role of demographic factors was investigated with largely inconclusive findings. Interest in predictive genetic testing for obesity, type II diabetes or heart disease was greatest amongst those who perceived the risk of disease to be high and/or the outcomes of testing to be beneficial. © 2013 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  3. USA National Phenology Network's volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions.

    PubMed

    Crimmins, Theresa M; Crimmins, Michael A; Gerst, Katharine L; Rosemartin, Alyssa H; Weltzin, Jake F

    2017-01-01

    In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. The aim of this study was to explore the potential that exists in the broad and rich volunteer-collected dataset maintained by the USA-NPN for constructing models predicting the timing of phenological transition across species' ranges within the continental United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth (2009-present). Whether data exhibiting such limitations can be used to develop predictive models appropriate for use across large geographic regions has not yet been explored. We constructed predictive models for phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation-thermal time models with a fixed start date. Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Remarkably, given the limited temporal depth of this dataset and the simple modeling approach used, fifteen of these models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error. The majority of these models represented the "breaking leaf buds" and "leaves" phenophases and represented shrub or tree growth forms. Accumulated growing degree day (GDD) thresholds that emerged ranged from 454 GDDs (Amelanchier canadensis-breaking leaf buds) to 1,300 GDDs (Prunus serotina-open flowers). Such candidate thermal time thresholds can be used to produce real-time and short-term forecast maps of the timing

  4. Expedition for the observation of a deployment of the american satellite echo II in the winter 1963

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karetnikov, V. G.; Mandel, O. E.

    1999-08-01

    One of the first cooperative projects USSR-USA in teh field of a satellite astronomy was organization of observations of a brightness of a satellite -baloon EchoII in accordance with filling it by gas after an output satellite into orbit. The expedition was conducted under aegis of Astronomical Council of Academy of Sciences of teh USSR,the coordinator of the program was V. M. Grigorevskij- at that time a senior lecturer of Kishinev (Chisinau) University. Four groups of the observers were directed to four points -Ufa, Vyatka (Kirov region), Syktyvkar, Norilsk- located under trajectory of the satellite on it the first orbits. The authors of the given message entered also in the staff of expedition. Duie to good weather conditions it was possible to execute the observations. V.Grigorevskij and G. Leikin have determined the period of rotation of the satellite about the axis and parameters of orientation. The expedition, except scientific value in strenghtening of international cooperation in the field of space researches.

  5. Dynamic adsorption of mixtures of Rhodamine B, Pb (II), Cu (II) and Zn(II) ions on composites chitosan-silica-polyethylene glycol membrane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahatmanti, F. W.; Rengga, W. D. P.; Kusumastuti, E.; Nuryono

    2018-04-01

    The adsorption of a solution mixture of Rhodamine B, Pb (II), Cu (II) and Zn(II) was studied using dynamic methods employing chitosan-silica-polyethylene glycol (Ch/Si/P) composite membrane as an adsorptive membrane. The composite Ch/Si/P membrane was prepared by mixing a chitosan-based membrane with silica isolated from rice husk ash (ASP) and polyethylene glycol (PEG) as a plasticizer. The resultant composite membrane was a stronger and more flexible membrane than the original chitosan-based membrane as indicated by the maximum percentage of elongation (20.5 %) and minimum Young’s Modulus (80.5 MPa). The composite membrane also showed increased mechanical and hydrophilic properties compared to the chitosan membranes. The membrane was used as adsorption membrane for Pb (II), Cu (II), Cd (II) ions and Rhodamine B dyes in a dynamic system where the permeation and selectivity were determined. The permeation of the components was observed to be in the following order: Rhodamine B > Cd (II) > Pb (II) > Cu (II) whereas the selectivity was shown to decrease the order of Cu (II) > Pb (II) > Cd (II) > Rhodamine B.

  6. Development and Application of Benchmark Examples for Mixed-Mode I/II Quasi-Static Delamination Propagation Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krueger, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The development of benchmark examples for quasi-static delamination propagation prediction is presented and demonstrated for a commercial code. The examples are based on finite element models of the Mixed-Mode Bending (MMB) specimen. The examples are independent of the analysis software used and allow the assessment of the automated delamination propagation prediction capability in commercial finite element codes based on the virtual crack closure technique (VCCT). First, quasi-static benchmark examples were created for the specimen. Second, starting from an initially straight front, the delamination was allowed to propagate under quasi-static loading. Third, the load-displacement relationship from a propagation analysis and the benchmark results were compared, and good agreement could be achieved by selecting the appropriate input parameters. Good agreement between the results obtained from the automated propagation analysis and the benchmark results could be achieved by selecting input parameters that had previously been determined during analyses of mode I Double Cantilever Beam and mode II End Notched Flexure specimens. The benchmarking procedure proved valuable by highlighting the issues associated with choosing the input parameters of the particular implementation. Overall the results are encouraging, but further assessment for mixed-mode delamination fatigue onset and growth is required.

  7. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  8. Doxycycline in early CJD: a double-blinded randomised phase II and observational study.

    PubMed

    Varges, Daniela; Manthey, Henrike; Heinemann, Uta; Ponto, Claudia; Schmitz, Matthias; Schulz-Schaeffer, Walter J; Krasnianski, Anna; Breithaupt, Maren; Fincke, Fabian; Kramer, Katharina; Friede, Tim; Zerr, Inga

    2017-02-01

    The main objective of the present study is to study the therapeutic efficiency of doxycycline in a double-blinded randomised phase II study in a cohort of patients with sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD). From the National Reference Center of TSE Surveillance in Germany, patients with probable or definite sCJD were recruited for a double-blinded randomised study with oral doxycycline (EudraCT 2006-003934-14). In addition, we analysed the data from patients with CJD who received compassionate treatment with doxycycline in a separate group. Potential factors which influence survival such as age at onset, gender, codon 129 polymorphism and cognitive functions were evaluated. The primary outcome measure was survival. Group 1: in the double-blinded randomised phase II study, 7 patients in the treatment group were compared with 5 controls. Group 2: 55 patients with sCJD treated with oral doxycycline were analysed and compared with 33 controls by a stratified propensity score applied to a Cox proportional hazard analysis. The results of both studies were combined by means of a random-effects meta-analysis. A slight increase in survival time in the doxycycline treatment group was observed (p=0.049, HR=0.63 (95% CI 0.402 to 0.999)). On the basis of our studies, a larger trial of doxycycline should be performed in persons in the earliest stages of CJD. EudraCT 2006-003934-14; Results. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test.

    PubMed

    Ring, Patrick; Neyse, Levent; David-Barett, Tamas; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies performance predictions in the 7-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and whether they differ by gender. After participants completed the CRT, they predicted their own (i), the other participants' (ii), men's (iii), and women's (iv) number of correct answers. In keeping with existing literature, men scored higher on the CRT than women and both men and women were too optimistic about their own performance. When we compare gender-specific predictions, we observe that men think they perform significantly better than other men and do so significantly more than women. The equality between women's predictions about their own performance and their female peers cannot be rejected. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the underpinnings of behavior in economics and in psychology by uncovering gender differences in confidence about one's ability relative to same and opposite sex peers.

  10. Clinical Risk Index for Babies score for the prediction of neurodevelopmental outcomes at 3 years of age in infants of very low birthweight.

    PubMed

    Lodha, Abhay; Sauvé, Reg; Chen, Sophie; Tang, Selphee; Christianson, Heather

    2009-11-01

    In this study, we evaluated the Clinical Risk Index for Babies - revised (CRIB-II) score as a predictor of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in preterm infants at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores, which include birthweight, gestational age, sex, admission temperature, and base excess, were recorded prospectively on all infants weighing 1250g or less admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The sensitivity and specificity of CRIB-II scores to predict poor outcomes were examined using receiver operating characteristic curves, and predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), based on the observed values entered on a continuous scale. Poor outcomes were defined as death or major neurodevelopmental disability (cerebral palsy, neurosensory hearing loss requiring amplification, legal blindness, severe seizure disorder, or cognitive score >2SD below the mean for adjusted age determined by clinical neurological examination and on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Bayley Scales of Infant Development, or revised Leiter International Performance Scale). Of the 180 infants admitted to the NICU, 155 survived. Complete follow-up data were available for 107 children. The male:female ratio was 50:57 (47-53%), median birthweight was 930g (range 511-1250g), and median gestational age was 27 weeks (range 23-32wks). Major neurodevelopmental impairment was observed in 11.2% of participants. In a regression model, the CRIB-II score was significantly correlated with long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes. It predicted major neurodevelopmental impairment (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, bootstrap 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-3.01; AUC 0.84) and poor outcome (OR 1.46; bootstrap 95% CI 1.31-1.71, AUC 0.82) at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores of 13 or more in the first hour of life can reliably predict major neurodevelopmental impairment at 36 months' corrected age (sensitivity 83%; specificity 84%).

  11. Observation of D⁰-D¯⁰ mixing using the CDF II detector.

    PubMed

    Aaltonen, T; Amerio, S; Amidei, D; Anastassov, A; Annovi, A; Antos, J; Apollinari, G; Appel, J A; Arisawa, T; Artikov, A; Asaadi, J; Ashmanskas, W; Auerbach, B; Aurisano, A; Azfar, F; Badgett, W; Bae, T; Barbaro-Galtieri, A; Barnes, V E; Barnett, B A; Barria, P; Bartos, P; Bauce, M; Bedeschi, F; Behari, S; Bellettini, G; Bellinger, J; Benjamin, D; Beretvas, A; Bhatti, A; Bland, K R; Blumenfeld, B; Bocci, A; Bodek, A; Bortoletto, D; Boudreau, J; Boveia, A; Brigliadori, L; Bromberg, C; Brucken, E; Budagov, J; Budd, H S; Burkett, K; Busetto, G; Bussey, P; Butti, P; Buzatu, A; Calamba, A; Camarda, S; Campanelli, M; Canelli, F; Carls, B; Carlsmith, D; Carosi, R; Carrillo, S; Casal, B; Casarsa, M; Castro, A; Catastini, P; Cauz, D; Cavaliere, V; Cavalli-Sforza, M; Cerri, A; Cerrito, L; Chen, Y C; Chertok, M; Chiarelli, G; Chlachidze, G; Cho, K; Chokheli, D; Clark, A; Clarke, C; Convery, M E; Conway, J; Corbo, M; Cordelli, M; Cox, C A; Cox, D J; Cremonesi, M; Cruz, D; Cuevas, J; Culbertson, R; d'Ascenzo, N; Datta, M; de Barbaro, P; Demortier, L; Deninno, M; D'Errico, M; Devoto, F; Di Canto, A; Di Ruzza, B; Dittmann, J R; Donati, S; D'Onofrio, M; Dorigo, M; Driutti, A; Ebina, K; Edgar, R; Elagin, A; Erbacher, R; Errede, S; Esham, B; Farrington, S; Fernández Ramos, J P; Field, R; Flanagan, G; Forrest, R; Franklin, M; Freeman, J C; Frisch, H; Funakoshi, Y; Galloni, C; Garfinkel, A F; Garosi, P; Gerberich, H; Gerchtein, E; Giagu, S; Giakoumopoulou, V; Gibson, K; Ginsburg, C M; Giokaris, N; Giromini, P; Giurgiu, G; Glagolev, V; Glenzinski, D; Gold, M; Goldin, D; Golossanov, A; Gomez, G; Gomez-Ceballos, G; Goncharov, M; González López, O; Gorelov, I; Goshaw, A T; Goulianos, K; Gramellini, E; Grinstein, S; Grosso-Pilcher, C; Group, R C; Guimaraes da Costa, J; Hahn, S R; Han, J Y; Happacher, F; Hara, K; Hare, M; Harr, R F; Harrington-Taber, T; Hatakeyama, K; Hays, C; Heinrich, J; Herndon, M; Hocker, A; Hong, Z; Hopkins, W; Hou, S; Hughes, R E; Husemann, U; Hussein, M; Huston, J; Introzzi, G; Iori, M; Ivanov, A; James, E; Jang, D; Jayatilaka, B; Jeon, E J; Jindariani, S; Jones, M; Joo, K K; Jun, S Y; Junk, T R; Kambeitz, M; Kamon, T; Karchin, P E; Kasmi, A; Kato, Y; Ketchum, W; Keung, J; Kilminster, B; Kim, D H; Kim, H S; Kim, J E; Kim, M J; Kim, S H; Kim, S B; Kim, Y J; Kim, Y K; Kimura, N; Kirby, M; Knoepfel, K; Kondo, K; Kong, D J; Konigsberg, J; Kotwal, A V; Kreps, M; Kroll, J; Kruse, M; Kuhr, T; Kulkarni, N; Kurata, M; Laasanen, A T; Lammel, S; Lancaster, M; Lannon, K; Latino, G; Lee, H S; Lee, J S; Leo, S; Leone, S; Lewis, J D; Limosani, A; Lipeles, E; Lister, A; Liu, H; Liu, Q; Liu, T; Lockwitz, S; Loginov, A; Lucchesi, D; Lucà, A; Lueck, J; Lujan, P; Lukens, P; Lungu, G; Lys, J; Lysak, R; Madrak, R; Maestro, P; Malik, S; Manca, G; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A; Marchese, L; Margaroli, F; Marino, P; Martínez, M; Matera, K; Mattson, M E; Mazzacane, A; Mazzanti, P; McNulty, R; Mehta, A; Mehtala, P; Mesropian, C; Miao, T; Mietlicki, D; Mitra, A; Miyake, H; Moed, S; Moggi, N; Moon, C S; Moore, R; Morello, M J; Mukherjee, A; Muller, Th; Murat, P; Mussini, M; Nachtman, J; Nagai, Y; Naganoma, J; Nakano, I; Napier, A; Nett, J; Neu, C; Nigmanov, T; Nodulman, L; Noh, S Y; Norniella, O; Oakes, L; Oh, S H; Oh, Y D; Oksuzian, I; Okusawa, T; Orava, R; Ortolan, L; Pagliarone, C; Palencia, E; Palni, P; Papadimitriou, V; Parker, W; Pauletta, G; Paulini, M; Paus, C; Phillips, T J; Piacentino, G; Pianori, E; Pilot, J; Pitts, K; Plager, C; Pondrom, L; Poprocki, S; Potamianos, K; Pranko, A; Prokoshin, F; Ptohos, F; Punzi, G; Ranjan, N; Redondo Fernández, I; Renton, P; Rescigno, M; Rimondi, F; Ristori, L; Robson, A; Rodriguez, T; Rolli, S; Ronzani, M; Roser, R; Rosner, J L; Ruffini, F; Ruiz, A; Russ, J; Rusu, V; Sakumoto, W K; Sakurai, Y; Santi, L; Sato, K; Saveliev, V; Savoy-Navarro, A; Schlabach, P; Schmidt, E E; Schwarz, T; Scodellaro, L; Scuri, F; Seidel, S; Seiya, Y; Semenov, A; Sforza, F; Shalhout, S Z; Shears, T; Shepard, P F; Shimojima, M; Shochet, M; Shreyber-Tecker, I; Simonenko, A; Sliwa, K; Smith, J R; Snider, F D; Song, H; Sorin, V; St Denis, R; Stancari, M; Stentz, D; Strologas, J; Sudo, Y; Sukhanov, A; Suslov, I; Takemasa, K; Takeuchi, Y; Tang, J; Tecchio, M; Teng, P K; Thom, J; Thomson, E; Thukral, V; Toback, D; Tokar, S; Tollefson, K; Tomura, T; Tonelli, D; Torre, S; Torretta, D; Totaro, P; Trovato, M; Ukegawa, F; Uozumi, S; Vázquez, F; Velev, G; Vellidis, C; Vernieri, C; Vidal, M; Vilar, R; Vizán, J; Vogel, M; Volpi, G; Wagner, P; Wallny, R; Wang, S M; Waters, D; Wester, W C; Whiteson, D; Wicklund, A B; Wilbur, S; Williams, H H; Wilson, J S; Wilson, P; Winer, B L; Wittich, P; Wolbers, S; Wolfe, H; Wright, T; Wu, X; Wu, Z; Yamamoto, K; Yamato, D; Yang, T; Yang, U K; Yang, Y C; Yao, W-M; Yeh, G P; Yi, K; Yoh, J; Yorita, K; Yoshida, T; Yu, G B; Yu, I; Zanetti, A M; Zeng, Y; Zhou, C; Zucchelli, S

    2013-12-06

    We measure the time dependence of the ratio of decay rates for D0→K(+)π(-) to the Cabibbo-favored decay D(0)→K(-)π(+). The charge conjugate decays are included. A signal of 3.3×10(4) D(*+)→π(+)D(0), D(0)→K(+)π(-) decays is obtained with D0 proper decay times between 0.75 and 10 mean D0 lifetimes. The data were recorded with the CDF II detector at the Fermilab Tevatron and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 9.6  fb(-1) for pp¯ collisions at √s=1.96  TeV. Assuming CP conservation, we search for D0-D¯0 mixing and measure the mixing parameters to be R(D)=(3.51±0.35)×10(-3), y'=(4.3±4.3)×10(-3), and x'2=(0.08±0.18)×10(-3). We report Bayesian probability intervals in the x'2-y' plane and find that the significance of excluding the no-mixing hypothesis is equivalent to 6.1 Gaussian standard deviations, providing the second observation of D0-D¯0 mixing from a single experiment.

  12. Biochemical and genetic studies in cystinuria: observations on double heterozygotes of genotype I/II

    PubMed Central

    Morin, Claude L.; Thompson, Margaret W.; Jackson, Sanford H.; Sass-Kortsak, Andrew

    1971-01-01

    10 families with cystinuria were investigated by measuring: (a) quantitative 24 hr urinary excretion of amino acids by column chromatography; (b) endogenous renal clearances of amino acids and creatinine; (c) intestinal uptake of 34C-labeled L-cystine, L-lysine, and L-arginine using jejunal mucosal biopsies; (d) oral cystine loading tests. All four of these were studied in the probands and the first two in a large number of the family members. 49 members of 8 families were found to have a regular genetic pattern as described previously by Harris, Rosenberg, and their coworkers. Clinical or biochemical differences between the homozygotes type I (recessive cystinuria) and homozygotes type II (incompletely recessive cystinuria) have not been found. Both types excreted similarly excessive amounts of cystine, lysine, arginine, and ornithine, and had high endogenous renal clearances for these four amino acids. Some homozygotes of both types had a cystine clearance higher than the glomerular filtration rate. Jejunal mucosa from both types of homozygotes exhibited near complete inability to concentrate cystine and lysine in vitro. This was also documented in vivo with oral cystine loads. The heterozygotes type I were phenotypically normal with respect to the above four measurements. The heterozygotes type II showed moderate but definite abnormalities in their urinary excretion and their renal clearances of dibasic amino acids. Of the four amino acids concerned, cystine was the most reliable marker to differentiate between the heterozygotes type II and the homozygous normals. In this study, type III cystinuria, as described by Rosenberg, was not encountered. In two additional families, double heterozygotes of genotype I/II were found. The disease affecting these is clinically and biochemically less severe than that affecting homozygotes of either type I or type II. With respect to the four parameters used in this study, the double heterozygotes type I/II have results which

  13. Clinical application of the Melbourne risk prediction tool in a high-risk upper abdominal surgical population: an observational cohort study.

    PubMed

    Parry, S; Denehy, L; Berney, S; Browning, L

    2014-03-01

    (1) To determine the ability of the Melbourne risk prediction tool to predict a pulmonary complication as defined by the Melbourne Group Scale in a medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery population during the postoperative period; (2) to identify the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications; and (3) to examine the risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications in this high-risk population. Observational cohort study. Tertiary Australian referral centre. 50 individuals who underwent medically defined high-risk upper abdominal surgery. Presence of postoperative pulmonary complications was screened daily for seven days using the Melbourne Group Scale (Version 2). Postoperative pulmonary risk prediction was calculated according to the Melbourne risk prediction tool. (1) Melbourne risk prediction tool; and (2) the incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications. Sixty-six percent (33/50) underwent hepatobiliary or upper gastrointestinal surgery. Mean (SD) anaesthetic duration was 377.8 (165.5) minutes. The risk prediction tool classified 84% (42/50) as high risk. Overall postoperative pulmonary complication incidence was 42% (21/50). The tool was 91% sensitive and 21% specific with a 50% chance of correct classification. This is the first study to externally validate the Melbourne risk prediction tool in an independent medically defined high-risk population. There was a higher incidence of pulmonary complications postoperatively observed compared to that previously reported. Results demonstrated poor validity of the tool in a population already defined medically as high risk and when applied postoperatively. This observational study has identified several important points to consider in future trials. Copyright © 2013 Chartered Society of Physiotherapy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Seasonal predictability of Arctic Sea Ice: assessing its limits and potential in a GCM and implications for observations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic sea ice has exhibited a dramatic decrease both in area and thickness over the recent decades, particularly during the summer months. This decrease has led to growing interest in the potential predictability of summer sea ice, spurred in part by the socioeconomic implications. Here we present results of several parallel experiments designed to assess and understand the limits and potential for seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, with an emphasis on the summer minimum. Building on our experience from the SEARCH Outlook, we present results of a coupled general circulation model (GCM) hindcast simulation of Arctic summer sea ice variability for the satellite period (1979-present). These are initialized with spring sea ice volume anomalies obtained from a modelling and assimilation system, considered to be a close representation of reality. We show that there is significant predictability, yet the stochastic forcing imparted mainly by the atmosphere can lead to large errors in the hindcast. The model, however, can simulate anomalous runs that lie beyond a Gaussian distribution. Additionally, we investigate the regional characteristics of predictability and its links to sea ice dynamics and the spatio-temporal behavior of sea ice anomalies. We show a distinct difference between models. Unfortunately, observational data of thickness are not yet detailed enough to assess the models. Our results indicate the potential for detailed ice thickness observations in improving regional predictability. Finally, we discuss the importance of experiment design in predictability experiments, and show that predictions made with models that have a large mean state bias in sea ice require a careful initialization in order to fully capture all initial value predictability.

  15. Results of Instrument Observations and Adaptive Prediction of Thermoabrasion of Banks of the Vilyui Reservoir

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Velikin, S. A.; Sobol', I. S.; Sobol', S. V.

    2013-11-15

    Quantitative data derived from observations of reformation of the thermoabrasive banks of the Viliyui Reservoir in Yakutia during the service period from 1972 through 2011, and results of analytical prediction of bank formations over the next 20 years for purposes of monitoring the ecological safety of this water body are presented.

  16. Spectroscopic survey of Kepler stars - II. FIES/NOT observations of A- and F-type stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niemczura, E.; Polińska, M.; Murphy, S. J.; Smalley, B.; Kołaczkowski, Z.; Jessen-Hansen, J.; Uytterhoeven, K.; Lykke, J. M.; Triviño Hage, A.; Michalska, G.

    2017-09-01

    We have analysed high-resolution spectra of 28 A and 22 F stars in the Kepler field, observed using the Fibre-Fed Échelle Spectrograph at the Nordic Optical Telescope. We provide spectral types, atmospheric parameters and chemical abundances for 50 stars. Balmer, Fe I and Fe II lines were used to derive effective temperatures, surface gravities and microturbulent velocities. We determined chemical abundances and projected rotational velocities using a spectrum synthesis technique. Effective temperatures calculated by spectral energy distribution fitting are in good agreement with those determined from the spectral line analysis. The stars analysed include chemically peculiar stars of the Am and λ Boo types, as well as stars with approximately solar chemical abundances. The wide distribution of projected rotational velocity, vsin I, is typical for A and F stars. The microturbulence velocities obtained are typical for stars in the observed temperature and surface gravity ranges. Moreover, we affirm the results of Niemczura et al. that Am stars do not have systematically higher microturbulent velocities than normal stars of the same temperature.

  17. Synthesis, characterization, thermal and biological evaluation of Cu (II), Co (II) and Ni (II) complexes of azo dye ligand containing sulfamethaxazole moiety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallikarjuna, N. M.; Keshavayya, J.; Maliyappa, M. R.; Shoukat Ali, R. A.; Venkatesh, Talavara

    2018-08-01

    A novel bioactive Cu (II), Co (II) and Ni (II) complexes of the azo dye ligand (L) derived from sulfamethoxazole were synthesized. The structures of the newly synthesized compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, FTIR, UV-visible, 1H NMR, mass, thermal and powder XRD spectral techniques. Molar conductivity measurements in DMSO solution confirmed the non-electrolytic nature of the complexes. All the synthesized metal complexes were found to be monomeric and showed square planar geometry except the Co (II) complex which has six coordinate, octahedral environment. The metal complexes have exhibited potential growth inhibitory effect against tested bacterial strains as compared to the free ligand. The ligand and complexes have also shown significant antioxidant and Calf Thymus DNA cleavage activities. Further, the in silico molecular docking studies were performed to predict the possible binding sites of the ligand (L) and its metal complexes with target receptor Glu-6P.

  18. Enhanced Materials Based on Submonolayer Type-II Quantum Dots

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tamargo, Maria C; Kuskovsky, Igor L.; Meriles, Carlos

    2017-04-15

    We have investigated a nanostructured material known as sub-monolayer type-II QDs, made from wide bandgap II-VI semiconductors. Our goal is to understand and exploit their tunable optical and electrical properties by taking advantage of the type-II band alignment and quantum confinement effects. Type-II ZnTe quantum dots (QDs) in a ZnSe host are particularly interesting because of their relatively large valence band and conduction band offsets. In the current award we have developed new materials based on sub-monolayer type-II QDs that may be advantageous for photovoltaic and spintronics applications. We have also expanded the structural characterization of these materials by refiningmore » the X-ray diffraction methodologies needed to investigate them. In particular, we have 1) demonstrated ZnCdTe/ZnCdSe type-II QDs materials that have ideal properties for the development of novel high efficiency “intermediate band solar cells”, 2) we developed a comprehensive approach to describe and model the growth of these ultra-small type-II QDs, 3) analysis of the evolution of the photoluminescence (PL) emission, combined with other characterization probes allowed us to predict the size and density of the QDs as a function of the growth conditions, 4) we developed and implemented novel sophisticated X-ray diffraction techniques from which accurate size and shape of the buried type-II QDs could be extracted, 5) a correlation of the shape anisotropy with polarization dependent PL was observed, confirming the QDs detailed shape and providing insight about the effects of this shape anisotropy on the physical properties of the type-II QD systems, and 6) a detailed “time-resolved Kerr rotation” investigation has led to the demonstration of enhanced electron spin lifetimes for the samples with large densities of type-II QDs and an understanding of the interplay between the QDs and Te-isoelectroic centers, a defect that forms in the spacer layers that separate the QDs.« less

  19. Bridging a gap between continuum-QCD and ab initio predictions of hadron observables

    DOE PAGES

    Binosi, Daniele; Chang, Lei; Papavassiliou, Joannis; ...

    2015-03-01

    Within contemporary hadron physics there are two common methods for determining the momentum- dependence of the interaction between quarks: the top-down approach, which works toward an ab initiocomputation of the interaction via direct analysis of the gauge-sector gap equations; and the bottom-up scheme, which aims to infer the interaction by fitting data within a well-defined truncation of those equations in the matter sector that are relevant to bound-state properties. We unite these two approaches by demonstrating that the renormalisation-group-invariant running-interaction predicted by contemporary analyses of QCD’s gauge sector coincides with that required in order to describe ground-state hadron observables usingmore » a nonperturbative truncation of QCD’s Dyson–Schwinger equations in the matter sector. This bridges a gap that had lain between nonperturbative continuum-QCD and the ab initio prediction of bound-state properties.« less

  20. Lifetimes and Oscillator Strengths for Ultraviolet Transitions in P II, Cl II and Cl III

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, S.; Federman, S. R.; Schectman, R. M.; Brown, M.; Irving, R. E.; Fritts, M. C.; Gibson, N. D.

    2006-01-01

    Oscillator strengths for transitions in P II, Cl II and Cl III are derived from lifetimes and branching factions measured with beam-foil techniques. The focus is on the multiplets with a prominent interstellar line at 1153 A in P II which is seen in spectra of hot stars, and the lines at 1071 A in Cl II and 1011 A in Cl III whose lines are seen in spectra of diffuse interstellar clouds and the Io torus acquired with the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer. These data represent the first complete set of experimental f-values for the lines in the multiplets. Our results for P II (lambda)1153 agree well with Curtis semi-empirical predictions, as well as the large scale computations by Hibbert and by Tayal. The data for Cl II (lambda)1071 also agree very well with the most recent theoretical effort and with Morton s newest recommendations. For Cl III, however, our f-values are significantly larger than those given by Morton; instead, they are more consistent with recent large-scale theoretical calculations. Extensive tests provide confirmation that LS coupling rules apply to the transitions for the multiplets in Cl II and Cl III.

  1. Classroom Use of Multimedia-Supported Predict--Observe--Explain Tasks in a Social Constructivist Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kearney, Matthew

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of multimedia-based predict--observe--explain (POE) tasks to facilitate small group learning conversations. Although the tasks were given to pairs of students as a diagnostic tool to elicit their pre-instructional physics conceptions, they also provided a peer learning opportunity for students. The study adopted a…

  2. Improvement of Meteorological Inputs for TexAQS-II Air Quality Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngan, F.; Byun, D.; Kim, H.; Cheng, F.; Kim, S.; Lee, D.

    2008-12-01

    An air quality forecasting system (UH-AQF) for Eastern Texas, which is in operation by the Institute for Multidimensional Air Quality Studies (IMAQS) at the University of Houston, uses the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 model as the meteorological driver for modeling air quality with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. While the forecasting system was successfully used for the planning and implementation of various measurement activities, evaluations of the forecasting results revealed a few systematic problems in the numerical simulations. From comparison with observations, we observe some times over-prediction of northerly winds caused by inaccurate synoptic inputs and other times too strong southerly winds caused by local sea breeze development. Discrepancies in maximum and minimum temperature are also seen for certain days. Precipitation events, as well as clouds, are simulated at the incorrect locations and times occasionally. Model simulatednrealistic thunderstorms are simulated, causing sometimes cause unrealistically strong outflows. To understand physical and chemical processes influencing air quality measures, a proper description of real world meteorological conditions is essential. The objective of this study is to generate better meteorological inputs than the AQF results to support the chemistry modeling. We utilized existing objective analysis and nudging tools in the MM5 system to develop the MUltiscale Nest-down Data Assimilation System (MUNDAS), which incorporates extensive meteorological observations available in the simulated domain for the retrospective simulation of the TexAQS-II period. With the re-simulated meteorological input, we are able to better predict ozone events during TexAQS-II period. In addition, base datasets in MM5 such as land use/land cover, vegetation fraction, soil type and sea surface temperature are updated by satellite data to represent the surface features more accurately. They are key

  3. Giant stellar-wind shell associated with the H II region M16

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofue, Y.; Handa, T.; Fuerst, E.; Reich, W.; Reich, P.

    The detection of a giant radio continuum shell associated with the bright H II region M16, one of the most active star-forming sites in the Sagittarius arm, is reported. The shell structure agrees with that predicted by the stellar wind bubble model. The innermost regions of the shell is a cavity dominated by a stellar wind from early-type stars and is bounded by shocked H II gas. The shell is observed as a thermal radio emission loop. The rate of kinetic energy injection from the central O stars is estimated to be 3.3 x 10 to the 36th ergs/s, and the corresponding mass loss rate is 2.6 x 10 to the -6th solar mass/yr, with an age of the shell being about 7 million yr.

  4. Konstantinov effect in helium II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melnikovsky, L. A.

    2008-04-01

    The reflection of first and second sound waves by a rigid flat wall in helium II is considered. A nontrivial dependence of the reflection coefficients on the angle of incidence is obtained. Sound conversion is predicted at oblique incidence.

  5. Sediment sorting along tidal sand waves: A comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Oyen, Tomas; Blondeaux, Paolo; Van den Eynde, Dries

    2013-07-01

    A site-by-site comparison between field observations and theoretical predictions of sediment sorting patterns along tidal sand waves is performed for ten locations in the North Sea. At each site, the observed grain size distribution along the bottom topography and the geometry of the bed forms is described in detail and the procedure used to obtain the model parameters is summarized. The model appears to accurately describe the wavelength of the observed sand waves for the majority of the locations; still providing a reliable estimate for the other sites. In addition, it is found that for seven out of the ten locations, the qualitative sorting process provided by the model agrees with the observed grain size distribution. A discussion of the site-by-site comparison is provided which, taking into account uncertainties in the field data, indicates that the model grasps the major part of the key processes controlling the phenomenon.

  6. Dissolution and dissolution/permeation experiments for predicting systemic exposure following oral administration of the BCS class II drug clarithromycin.

    PubMed

    Kristin, Forner; René, Holm; Boontida, Morakul; Buraphacheep, Junyaprasert Varaporn; Maximilian, Ackermann; Johanna, Mazur; Peter, Langguth

    2017-04-01

    In order to save time and resources in early drug development, in vitro methods that correctly predict the formulation effect on oral drug absorption are necessary. The aim of this study was to 1) evaluate various BCS class II drug formulations with in vitro methods and in vivo in order to 2) determine which in vitro method best correlates with the in vivo results. Clarithromycin served as model compound in formulations with different particle sizes and content of excipients. The performed in vitro experiments were dissolution and dissolution/permeation experiments across two types of membrane, Caco-2 cells and excised rat intestinal sheets. The in vivo study was performed in rats. The oral absorption was enhanced by downsizing drug particles and by increasing the excipient concentration. This correlated strongly with the flux across Caco-2 cells but not with the other in vitro experiments. The insufficient correlation with the dissolution experiments can be partly explained by excipient caused problems during the filtration step. The very poor correlation of the in vivo data with the flux across excised rat intestinal sheets might be due to an artificially enlarged mucus layer ex vivo. In conclusion, downsizing BCS class II drug particles and the addition of surfactants enhanced the in vivo absorption, which was best depicted by dissolution/permeation experiments across Caco-2 cells. This setup is proposed as best model to predict the in vivo formulation effect. Also, this is the first study to evaluate the impact of the nature of the permeation membrane in dissolution/permeation experiments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. On the Solar Chromosphere Observed at the LIMB with Hinode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Judge, Philip G.; Carlsson, Mats

    2010-08-01

    Broadband images in the Ca II H line, from the Broadband Filter Imager (BFI) instrument on the Hinode spacecraft, show emission from spicules emerging from and visible right down to the observed limb. Surprisingly, little absorption of spicule light is seen along their lengths. We present formal solutions to the transfer equation for given (ad hoc) source functions, including a stratified chromosphere from which spicules emanate. The model parameters are broadly compatible with earlier studies of spicules. The visibility of Ca II spicules down to the limb in Hinode data seems to require that spicule emission be Doppler shifted relative to the stratified atmosphere, either by supersonic turbulent or organized spicular motion. The non-spicule component of the chromosphere is almost invisible in the broadband BFI data, but we predict that it will be clearly visible in high spectral resolution data. Broadband Ca II H limb images give the false impression that the chromosphere is dominated by spicules. Our analysis serves as a reminder that the absence of a signature can be as significant as its presence.

  8. Confocal arthroscopy-based patient-specific constitutive models of cartilaginous tissues - II: prediction of reaction force history of meniscal cartilage specimens.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Zeike A; Kirk, Thomas B; Miller, Karol

    2007-10-01

    The theoretical framework developed in a companion paper (Part I) is used to derive estimates of mechanical response of two meniscal cartilage specimens. The previously developed framework consisted of a constitutive model capable of incorporating confocal image-derived tissue microstructural data. In the present paper (Part II) fibre and matrix constitutive parameters are first estimated from mechanical testing of a batch of specimens similar to, but independent from those under consideration. Image analysis techniques which allow estimation of tissue microstructural parameters form confocal images are presented. The constitutive model and image-derived structural parameters are then used to predict the reaction force history of the two meniscal specimens subjected to partially confined compression. The predictions are made on the basis of the specimens' individual structural condition as assessed by confocal microscopy and involve no tuning of material parameters. Although the model does not reproduce all features of the experimental curves, as an unfitted estimate of mechanical response the prediction is quite accurate. In light of the obtained results it is judged that more general non-invasive estimation of tissue mechanical properties is possible using the developed framework.

  9. Modelling a model?!! Prediction of observed and calculated daily pan evaporation in New Mexico, U.S.A.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beriro, D. J.; Abrahart, R. J.; Nathanail, C. P.

    2012-04-01

    Data-driven modelling is most commonly used to develop predictive models that will simulate natural processes. This paper, in contrast, uses Gene Expression Programming (GEP) to construct two alternative models of different pan evaporation estimations by means of symbolic regression: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed on observed records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. The solutions are compared and contrasted for the purposes of determining whether any substantial differences exist between either option. This analysis will address recent arguments over the impact of using downloaded hydrological modelling datasets originating from different initial sources i.e. observed or calculated. These differences can be easily be overlooked by modellers, resulting in a model of a model developed on estimations derived from deterministic empirical equations and producing exceptionally high goodness-of-fit. This paper uses different lines-of-evidence to evaluate model output and in so doing paves the way for a new protocol in machine learning applications. Transparent modelling tools such as symbolic regression offer huge potential for explaining stochastic processes, however, the basic tenets of data quality and recourse to first principles with regard to problem understanding should not be trivialised. GEP is found to be an effective tool for the prediction of observed and calculated pan evaporation, with results supported by an understanding of the records, and of the natural processes concerned, evaluated using one-at-a-time response function sensitivity analysis. The results show that both architectures and response functions are very similar, implying that previously observed differences in goodness-of-fit can be explained by whether models are applied to observed or calculated data.

  10. Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

    PubMed

    Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

    2014-01-01

    To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age <18 years, the records of 1543 patients were analyzed using appropriate statistical methods. Both models overpredicted mortality in this cohort [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.06 using APACHE II and SAPS II respectively]. Patterns of predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) and 0.83 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) for APACHE II and SAPS II, respectively). There were wide variations in SMRs calculated for subgroups based on International Classification of Disease, 10(th) edition (standard deviation ± 0.27 for APACHE II and 0.30 for SAPS II). Lack of fit of data to the models and wide variation in SMRs in subgroups put a limitation on utility of these models as tools for assessing quality of care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

  11. Validation of biomarkers to predict response to immunotherapy in cancer: Volume II - clinical validation and regulatory considerations.

    PubMed

    Dobbin, Kevin K; Cesano, Alessandra; Alvarez, John; Hawtin, Rachael; Janetzki, Sylvia; Kirsch, Ilan; Masucci, Giuseppe V; Robbins, Paul B; Selvan, Senthamil R; Streicher, Howard Z; Zhang, Jenny; Butterfield, Lisa H; Thurin, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    There is growing recognition that immunotherapy is likely to significantly improve health outcomes for cancer patients in the coming years. Currently, while a subset of patients experience substantial clinical benefit in response to different immunotherapeutic approaches, the majority of patients do not but are still exposed to the significant drug toxicities. Therefore, a growing need for the development and clinical use of predictive biomarkers exists in the field of cancer immunotherapy. Predictive cancer biomarkers can be used to identify the patients who are or who are not likely to derive benefit from specific therapeutic approaches. In order to be applicable in a clinical setting, predictive biomarkers must be carefully shepherded through a step-wise, highly regulated developmental process. Volume I of this two-volume document focused on the pre-analytical and analytical phases of the biomarker development process, by providing background, examples and "good practice" recommendations. In the current Volume II, the focus is on the clinical validation, validation of clinical utility and regulatory considerations for biomarker development. Together, this two volume series is meant to provide guidance on the entire biomarker development process, with a particular focus on the unique aspects of developing immune-based biomarkers. Specifically, knowledge about the challenges to clinical validation of predictive biomarkers, which has been gained from numerous successes and failures in other contexts, will be reviewed together with statistical methodological issues related to bias and overfitting. The different trial designs used for the clinical validation of biomarkers will also be discussed, as the selection of clinical metrics and endpoints becomes critical to establish the clinical utility of the biomarker during the clinical validation phase of the biomarker development. Finally, the regulatory aspects of submission of biomarker assays to the U.S. Food and

  12. [C II] emission from L1630 in the Orion B molecular cloud

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pabst, C. H. M.; Goicoechea, J. R.; Teyssier, D.; Berné, O.; Ochsendorf, B. B.; Wolfire, M. G.; Higgins, R. D.; Riquelme, D.; Risacher, C.; Pety, J.; Le Petit, F.; Roueff, E.; Bron, E.; Tielens, A. G. G. M.

    2017-10-01

    heating efficiency of the gas with theoretical studies of photoelectric heating by PAHs, clusters of PAHs, and very small grains, and find the heating efficiency to be lower than theoretically predicted, a continuation of the trend set by other observations. Conclusions: In L1630 only a small fraction of the gas mass is traced by [C II]. Most of the [C II] emission in the mapped area stems from PDR surfaces. The layered edge-on structure of the molecular cloud and limitations in spatial resolution put constraints on our ability to relate different tracers to each other and to the physical conditions. From our study, we conclude that the relation between [C II] emission and physical conditions is likely to be more complicated than often assumed. The theoretical heating efficiency is higher than the one we calculate from the observed [C II] emission in the L1630 molecular cloud.

  13. DFT predictions, synthesis, stoichiometric structures and anti-diabetic activity of Cu (II) and Fe (III) complexes of quercetin, morin, and primuletin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabeen, Erum; Janjua, Naveed Kausar; Ahmed, Safeer; Murtaza, Iram; Ali, Tahir; Masood, Nosheen; Rizvi, Aysha Sarfraz; Murtaza, Gulam

    2017-12-01

    The current study is aimed at the synthesis of Cu (II) and Fe (III) complexes of three flavonoids {morin (mor), quercetin (quer) and primuletin (prim)} and characterization through UV-Vis spectroscopy, cyclic voltammetry, FTIR, and thermal analysis. Structure prediction through DFT calculation was supported by experimental data. Benesi-Hildebrand equation was modified to function for 1:2 Cu-flavonoid and 1:3 Fe-flavonoid complexes. DFT predictions revealed that out of poly chelation sites present in morin and quercetin, 3-OH site was utilized as preferable chelation site while primuletin chelated through 5-OH position. In-vivo trials revealed the complexes to have better anti-diabetic potential than respective flavonoid. Fls/M-Fls proved as antagonistic to Alloxan induced diabetes and also retained anti-diabetic activity even in the presence of (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (HPβCD).

  14. Feasibility and predictive performance of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II in a rehabilitation department: a prospective study.

    PubMed

    Campanini, Isabella; Mastrangelo, Stefano; Bargellini, Annalisa; Bassoli, Agnese; Bosi, Gabriele; Lombardi, Francesco; Tolomelli, Stefano; Lusuardi, Mirco; Merlo, Andrea

    2018-01-11

    Falls are a common adverse event in both elderly inpatients and patients admitted to rehabilitation units. The Hendrich Fall Risk Model II (HIIFRM) has been already tested in all hospital wards with high fall rates, with the exception of the rehabilitation setting. This study's aim is to address the feasibility and predictive performances of HIIFRM in a hospital rehabilitation department. A 6 months prospective study in a Italian rehabilitation department with patients from orthopaedic, pulmonary, and neurological rehabilitation wards. All admitted patients were enrolled and assessed within 24 h of admission by means of the HIIFRM. The occurrence of falls was checked and recorded daily. HIIFRM feasibility was assessed as the percentage of successful administrations at admission. HIIFRM predictive performance was determined in terms of area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), best cutoff, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, along with their asymptotic 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). One hundred ninety-one patents were admitted. HIIFRM was feasible in 147 cases (77%), 11 of which suffered a fall (7.5%). Failures in administration were mainly due to bedridden patients (e.g. minimally conscious state, vegetative state). AUC was 0.779(0.685-0.873). The original HIIFRM cutoff of 5 led to a sensitivity of 100% with a mere specificity of 49%(40-57%), thus suggesting using higher cutoffs. Moreover, the median score for non-fallers at rehabilitation units was higher than that reported in literature for geriatric non fallers. The best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was obtained by using a cutoff of 8. This lead to sensitivity = 73%(46-99%), specificity = 72%(65-80%), positive predictive value = 17% and negative predictive value = 97%. These results support the use of the HIIFRM as a predictive tool. The HIIFRM showed satisfactory feasibility and predictive performances in

  15. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  16. Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test

    PubMed Central

    Ring, Patrick; Neyse, Levent; David-Barett, Tamas; Schmidt, Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    This paper studies performance predictions in the 7-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) and whether they differ by gender. After participants completed the CRT, they predicted their own (i), the other participants’ (ii), men’s (iii), and women’s (iv) number of correct answers. In keeping with existing literature, men scored higher on the CRT than women and both men and women were too optimistic about their own performance. When we compare gender-specific predictions, we observe that men think they perform significantly better than other men and do so significantly more than women. The equality between women’s predictions about their own performance and their female peers cannot be rejected. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the underpinnings of behavior in economics and in psychology by uncovering gender differences in confidence about one’s ability relative to same and opposite sex peers. PMID:27847487

  17. Observing with HST V: Improvements to the Scheduling of HST Parallel Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, D. K.; Vanorsow, D.; Lucks, M.; Henry, R.; Ratnatunga, K.; Patterson, A.

    1994-12-01

    Recent improvements to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) ground system have significantly increased the frequency of pure parallel observations, i.e. the simultaneous use of multiple HST instruments by different observers. Opportunities for parallel observations are limited by a variety of timing, hardware, and scientific constraints. Formerly, such opportunities were heuristically predicted prior to the construction of the primary schedule (or calendar), and lack of complete information resulted in high rates of scheduling failures and missed opportunities. In the current process the search for parallel opportunities is delayed until the primary schedule is complete, at which point new software tools are employed to identify places where parallel observations are supported. The result has been a considerable increase in parallel throughput. A new technique, known as ``parallel crafting,'' is currently under development to streamline further the parallel scheduling process. This radically new method will replace the standard exposure logsheet with a set of abstract rules from which observation parameters will be constructed ``on the fly'' to best match the constraints of the parallel opportunity. Currently, parallel observers must specify a huge (and highly redundant) set of exposure types in order to cover all possible types of parallel opportunities. Crafting rules permit the observer to express timing, filter, and splitting preferences in a far more succinct manner. The issue of coordinated parallel observations (same PI using different instruments simultaneously), long a troublesome aspect of the ground system, is also being addressed. For Cycle 5, the Phase II Proposal Instructions now have an exposure-level PAR WITH special requirement. While only the primary's alignment will be scheduled on the calendar, new commanding will provide for parallel exposures with both instruments.

  18. AGN jet power, formation of X-ray cavities, and FR I/II dichotomy in galaxy clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujita, Yutaka; Kawakatu, Nozomu; Shlosman, Isaac

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the ability of jets in active galactic nuclei to break out of the ambient gas with sufficiently large advance velocities. Using observationally estimated jet power, we analyze 28 bright elliptical galaxies in nearby galaxy clusters. Because the gas density profiles in the innermost regions of galaxies have not been resolved so far, we consider two extreme cases for temperature and density profiles. We also follow two types of evolution for the jet cocoons: being driven by the pressure inside the cocoon [Fanaroff-Riley (FR) type I], and being driven by the jet momentum (FR type II). Our main result is that regardless of the assumed form of the density profiles, jets with observed powers of ≲1044 erg s-1 are not powerful enough to evolve as FR II sources. Instead, they evolve as FR I sources and appear to be decelerated below the buoyant velocities of the cocoons when jets were propagating through the central dense regions of the host galaxies. This explains why FR I sources are more frequent than FR II sources in clusters. Furthermore, we predict the sizes of X-ray cavities from the observed jet powers and compare them with the observed ones-they are consistent within a factor of two if the FR I type evolution is realized. Finally, we find that the jets with a power ≳1044 erg s-1 are less affected by the ambient medium, and some of them, but not all, could serve as precursors of the FR II sources.

  19. Prediction of equilibrium parameters of adsorption of lead (II) ions onto diatomite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salman, Taylan; Ardalı, Yüksel; Gamze Turan, N.

    2013-04-01

    Heavy metals from industrial wastewaters are one of the most important environmental issues to be solved today. Due to their toxicity and nonbiodegradable nature, heavy metals cause environmental and public health problems. Various techniques have been developed to remove heavy metals from aqueous solutions. These include chemical precipitation, reverse osmosis, ion Exchange and adsorption. Among them, adsorption is considered to be a particularly competitive and effective process for the removal of heavy metals from aqueous solutions. There is growing interest in using low cost, commercially available materials for the adsorption of heavy metals. Diatomite is a siliceous sedimentary rock having an amorphous form of silica (SiO2. nH2O) containing a small amount of microcrystalline material. It has unique combination of physical and chemical properties such as high porosity, high permeability, small particle size, large surface area, and low thermal conductivity. In addition, it is available in Turkey and in various locations around the world. Therefore, diatomite has been successfully used as adsorbent for the removal of heavy metals. The aim of the study is to investigate the adsorption properties of diatomite. The equilibrium adsorption data were applied to the Langmuir, Freundlich and Dubinin-Radushkevic (D-R) isotherm models. Adsorption experiments were performed under batch process, using Pb (II) initial concentration, pH of solution and contact time as variables. The results demonstrated that the adsorption of Pb (II) was strongly dependent on pH of solution. The effect of pH on adsorption of Pb(II) on diatomite was conducted by varying pH from 2 to 12 at 20 oC. In the pH range of 2.0-4.0, the adsorption percentage increases slightly as the pH increasing. At pH>4, the adsorption percentage decreases with increasing pH because hydrolysis product and the precipitation begin to play an important role in the sorption of Pb (II). At pH4, the maximum adsorption

  20. Characterization and cloning of tripeptidyl peptidase II from the fruit fly, Drosophila melanogaster.

    PubMed

    Renn, S C; Tomkinson, B; Taghert, P H

    1998-07-24

    We describe the characterization, cloning, and genetic analysis of tripeptidyl peptidase II (TPP II) from Drosophila melanogaster. Mammalian TPP II removes N-terminal tripeptides, has wide distribution, and has been identified as the cholecystokinin-degrading peptidase in rat brain. Size exclusion and ion exchange chromatography produced a 70-fold purification of dTPP II activity from Drosophila tissue extracts. The substrate specificity and the inhibitor sensitivity of dTPP II is comparable to that of the human enzyme. In particular, dTPP II is sensitive to butabindide, a specific inhibitor of the rat cholecystokinin-inactivating activity. We isolated a 4309-base pair dTPP II cDNA which predicts a 1354-amino acid protein. The deduced human and Drosophila TPP II proteins display 38% overall identity. The catalytic triad, its spacing, and the sequences that surround it are highly conserved; the C-terminal end of dTPP II contains a 100-amino acid insert not found in the mammalian proteins. Recombinant dTPP II displays the predicted activity following expression in HEK cells. TPP II maps to cytological position 49F4-7; animals deficient for this interval show reduced TPP II activity.

  1. HOLIMO II: a digital holographic instrument for ground-based in-situ observations of microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henneberger, J.; Fugal, J. P.; Stetzer, O.; Lohmann, U.

    2013-05-01

    Measurements of the microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds with high spatial resolution are important to understand the processes inside these clouds. This work describes the design and characterization of the newly developed ground-based field instrument HOLIMO II (HOLographic Imager for Microscopic Objects II). HOLIMO II uses digital in-line holography to in-situ image cloud particles in a well defined sample volume. By an automated algorithm, two-dimensional images of single cloud particles between 6 and 250 μm in diameter are obtained and the size spectrum, the concentration and water content of clouds are calculated. By testing the sizing algorithm with monosized beads a systematic overestimation near the resolution limit was found, which has been used to correct the measurements. Field measurements from the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, are presented. The measured number size distributions are in good agreement with parallel measurements by a fog monitor (FM-100, DMT, Boulder USA). The field data shows that HOLIMO II is capable of measuring the number size distribution with a high spatial resolution and determines ice crystal shape, thus providing a method of quantifying variations in microphysical properties. A case study over a period of 8 h has been analyzed, exploring the transition from a liquid to a mixed-phase cloud, which is the longest observation of a cloud with a holographic device. During the measurement period, the cloud does not completely glaciate, contradicting earlier assumptions of the dominance of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process.

  2. HOLIMO II: a digital holographic instrument for ground-based in situ observations of microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henneberger, J.; Fugal, J. P.; Stetzer, O.; Lohmann, U.

    2013-11-01

    Measurements of the microphysical properties of mixed-phase clouds with high spatial resolution are important to understand the processes inside these clouds. This work describes the design and characterization of the newly developed ground-based field instrument HOLIMO II (HOLographic Imager for Microscopic Objects II). HOLIMO II uses digital in-line holography to in situ image cloud particles in a well-defined sample volume. By an automated algorithm, two-dimensional images of single cloud particles between 6 and 250 μm in diameter are obtained and the size spectrum, the concentration and water content of clouds are calculated. By testing the sizing algorithm with monosized beads a systematic overestimation near the resolution limit was found, which has been used to correct the measurements. Field measurements from the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, are presented. The measured number size distributions are in good agreement with parallel measurements by a fog monitor (FM-100, DMT, Boulder USA). The field data shows that HOLIMO II is capable of measuring the number size distribution with a high spatial resolution and determines ice crystal shape, thus providing a method of quantifying variations in microphysical properties. A case study over a period of 8 h has been analyzed, exploring the transition from a liquid to a mixed-phase cloud, which is the longest observation of a cloud with a holographic device. During the measurement period, the cloud does not completely glaciate, contradicting earlier assumptions of the dominance of the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process.

  3. The Inverse Contagion Problem (ICP) vs.. Predicting site contagion in real time, when network links are not observable

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mushkin, I.; Solomon, S.

    2017-10-01

    We study the inverse contagion problem (ICP). As opposed to the direct contagion problem, in which the network structure is known and the question is when each node will be contaminated, in the inverse problem the links of the network are unknown but a sequence of contagion histories (the times when each node was contaminated) is observed. We consider two versions of the ICP: The strong problem (SICP), which is the reconstruction of the network and has been studied before, and the weak problem (WICP), which requires "only" the prediction (at each time step) of the nodes that will be contaminated at the next time step (this is often the real life situation in which a contagion is observed and predictions are made in real time). Moreover, our focus is on analyzing the increasing accuracy of the solution, as a function of the number of contagion histories already observed. For simplicity, we discuss the simplest (deterministic and synchronous) contagion dynamics and the simplest solution algorithm, which we have applied to different network types. The main result of this paper is that the complex problem of the convergence of the ICP for a network can be reduced to an individual property of pairs of nodes: the "false link difficulty". By definition, given a pair of unlinked nodes i and j, the difficulty of the false link (i,j) is the probability that in a random contagion history, the nodes i and j are not contaminated at the same time step (or at consecutive time steps). In other words, the "false link difficulty" of a non-existing network link is the probability that the observations during a random contagion history would not rule out that link. This probability is relatively straightforward to calculate, and in most instances relies only on the relative positions of the two nodes (i,j) and not on the entire network structure. We have observed the distribution of false link difficulty for various network types, estimated it theoretically and confronted it

  4. TAMDAR Sensor Validation in 2003 AIRS II

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daniels, Taumi S.; Murray, John J.; Anderson, Mark V.; Mulally, Daniel J.; Jensen, Kristopher R.; Grainger, Cedric A.; Delene, David J.

    2005-01-01

    This study entails an assessment of TAMDAR in situ temperature, relative humidity and winds sensor data from seven flights of the UND Citation II. These data are undergoing rigorous assessment to determine their viability to significantly augment domestic Meteorological Data Communications Reporting System (MDCRS) and the international Aircraft Meteorological Data Reporting (AMDAR) system observational databases to improve the performance of regional and global numerical weather prediction models. NASA Langley Research Center participated in the Second Alliance Icing Research Study from November 17 to December 17, 2003. TAMDAR data taken during this period is compared with validation data from the UND Citation. The data indicate acceptable performance of the TAMDAR sensor when compared to measurements from the UND Citation research instruments.

  5. Extending data worth methods to select multiple observations targeting specific hydrological predictions of interest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilhelmsen, Troels N.; Ferré, Ty P. A.

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological models are often developed to forecasting future behavior in response due to natural or human induced changes in stresses affecting hydrologic systems. Commonly, these models are conceptualized and calibrated based on existing data/information about the hydrological conditions. However, most hydrologic systems lack sufficient data to constrain models with adequate certainty to support robust decision making. Therefore, a key element of a hydrologic study is the selection of additional data to improve model performance. Given the nature of hydrologic investigations, it is not practical to select data sequentially, i.e. to choose the next observation, collect it, refine the model, and then repeat the process. Rather, for timing and financial reasons, measurement campaigns include multiple wells or sampling points. There is a growing body of literature aimed at defining the expected data worth based on existing models. However, these are almost all limited to identifying single additional observations. In this study, we present a methodology for simultaneously selecting multiple potential new observations based on their expected ability to reduce the uncertainty of the forecasts of interest. This methodology is based on linear estimates of the predictive uncertainty, and it can be used to determine the optimal combinations of measurements (location and number) established to reduce the uncertainty of multiple predictions. The outcome of the analysis is an estimate of the optimal sampling locations; the optimal number of samples; as well as a probability map showing the locations within the investigated area that are most likely to provide useful information about the forecasting of interest.

  6. Vessel Loading Observations

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-01-01

    Vessel Loading Observations Procedures for P.L. 480, Titles II & III, : Section 416(b) and Food for Progress programs. Notice advises steamship lines and other interested parties that the vessel loading observation (VLO) procedure will continue to be...

  7. The effect of meteorological and chemical factors on the agreement between observations and predictions of fine aerosol composition in southwestern Ontario during BAQS-Met

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markovic, M. Z.; Hayden, K. L.; Murphy, J. G.; Makar, P. A.; Ellis, R. A.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Slowik, J. G.; Mihele, C.; Brook, J.

    2011-04-01

    The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on air quality in southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol inorganic chemical composition with measurements from Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS) onboard the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada Twin Otter aircraft and at a ground site in Harrow, ON. The agreement between modelled and measured pNO3- at the ground site (observed mean (Mobs) = 0.50 μg m-3; modelled mean (Mmod) = 0.58 μg m-3; root mean square error (RSME) = 1.27 μg m-3) was better than aloft (Mobs = 0.32 μg m-3; Mmod = 0.09 μg m-3; RSME = 0.48 μg m-3). Possible reasons for discrepancies include errors in (i) emission inventories, (ii) atmospheric chemistry, (iii) predicted meteorological parameters, or (iv) gas/particle thermodynamics in the model framework. Using the inorganic thermodynamics model, ISORROPIA, in an offline mode, we find that the assumption of thermodynamic equilibrium is consistent with observations of gas and particle composition at Harrow. We develop a framework to assess the sensitivity of PM1 nitrate to meteorological and chemical parameters and find that errors in both the predictions of relative humidity and free ammonia (FA ≡ NH3(g) + pNH4+ - 2 · pSO42-) are responsible for the poor agreement between modelled and measured values.

  8. The effect of meteorological and chemical factors on the agreement between observations and predictions of fine aerosol composition in Southwestern Ontario during BAQS-Met

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markovic, M. Z.; Hayden, K. L.; Murphy, J. G.; Makar, P. A.; Ellis, R. A.; Chang, R. Y.-W.; Slowik, J. G.; Mihele, C.; Brook, J.

    2010-10-01

    The Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study (BAQS-Met) was an intensive, collaborative field campaign during the summer of 2007 that investigated the effects of transboundary pollution, local pollution, and local meteorology on regional air quality in Southwestern Ontario. This analysis focuses on the measurements of the inorganic constituents of particulate matter with diameter of less than 1 μm (PM1), with a specific emphasis on nitrate. We evaluate the ability of AURAMS, the Environment Canada's chemical transport model, to represent regional air pollution in SW Ontario by comparing modelled aerosol inorganic chemical composition with measurements from Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS) onboard the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada Twin Otter aircraft and at a ground site in Harrow, ON. The agreement between modelled and measured pNO3- at the ground site (observed mean (M_obs) = 0.50 μg m-3; modelled mean (M_mod) = 0.58 μg m-3; root mean square error (RSME) = 1.27 μg m-3) was better than aloft (M_obs = 0.32 μg m-3; M_mod = 0.09 μg m-3; RSME = 0.48 μg m-3). Possible reasons for discrepancies include errors in (i) emission inventories, (ii) atmospheric chemistry, (iii) predicted meteorological parameters, or (iv) gas/particle thermodynamics in the model framework. Using the inorganic thermodynamics model, ISORROPIA, in an offline mode, we find that the assumption of thermodynamic equilibrium is consistent with observations of gas and particle composition at Harrow. We develop a framework to assess the sensitivity of PM1 nitrate to meteorological and chemical parameters and find that errors in both the predictions of relative humidity and free ammonia (FA ≡ NH3(g) + NH4+ - SO42-) are responsible for the poor agreement between modelled and measured values.

  9. Reliability of intensive care unit admitting and comorbid diagnoses, race, elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, and predicted probability of mortality in an electronic intensive care unit database.

    PubMed

    Wenner, Joshua B; Norena, Monica; Khan, Nadia; Palepu, Anita; Ayas, Najib T; Wong, Hubert; Dodek, Peter M

    2009-09-01

    Although reliability of severity of illness and predicted probability of hospital mortality have been assessed, interrater reliability of the abstraction of primary and other intensive care unit (ICU) admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities has not been studied. Patient data from one ICU were originally abstracted and entered into an electronic database by an ICU nurse. A research assistant reabstracted patient demographics, ICU admitting diagnoses and underlying comorbidities, and elements of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score from 100 random patients of 474 admitted during 2005 using an identical electronic database. Chamberlain's percent positive agreement was used to compare diagnoses and comorbidities between the 2 data abstractors. A kappa statistic was calculated for demographic variables, Glasgow Coma Score, APACHE II chronic health points, and HIV status. Intraclass correlation was calculated for acute physiology points and predicted probability of hospital mortality. Percent positive agreement for ICU primary and other admitting diagnoses ranged from 0% (primary brain injury) to 71% (sepsis), and for underlying comorbidities, from 40% (coronary artery bypass graft) to 100% (HIV). Agreement as measured by kappa statistic was strong for race (0.81) and age points (0.95), moderate for chronic health points (0.50) and HIV (0.66), and poor for Glasgow Coma Score (0.36). Intraclass correlation showed a moderate-high agreement for acute physiology points (0.88) and predicted probability of hospital mortality (0.71). Reliability for ICU diagnoses and elements of the APACHE II score is related to the objectivity of primary data in the medical charts.

  10. Evaluation of the BISAP scoring system in prognostication of acute pancreatitis - A prospective observational study.

    PubMed

    Hagjer, Sumitra; Kumar, Nitesh

    2018-04-21

    Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality and its early identification is important for management and risk stratification. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a simple scoring system done at admission which predicts the severity of pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is raised very early and helps in early prediction of the severity of disease. This study aims to evaluate the BISAP score and Procalcitonin in prognostication of acute pancreatitis. A prospective observational study of 60 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis was done at XXX Medical College and Hospital from July 2015 to June 2016. BISAP, APACHE-II, Ranson criteria, and CT severity index (CTSI) of all patients were calculated. Procalcitonin card test was done for all patients. The patients were stratified according by BISAP score and procalcitonin positivity into categories of severe pancreatitis, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, as well as the number of deaths. The comparison of BISAP with other scoring systems, Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI) was done by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) to prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, necrosis, and death. Of the 60 patients, 14 (23.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis, 11 (18.3%) Organ failure, 21 (35%) pancreatic necrosis and 7 (11.6%) died. A BISAP score of ≥3 was a statistically significant cutoff value. AUCs for predicting severe pancreatitis and death of BISAP were 0.875 and 0.740respectively, similar to those for Ranson criteria (0.802, 0.763) and APACHE-II (0.891, 0.769) and greater than AUCs for CTSI (0.641, 0.554). The AUC for prediction of organ failure were 0.906, 0.833, 0.874 and 0.623 for BISAP, Ranson criteria, APACHE-II, and CTSI respectively. AUCs for PCT predicting severity, organ failure, and death were 0.940, 0.923 and 0.769 respectively were similar to BISAP but greater than

  11. Gamma rays from dark matter subhalos revisited: Refining the predictions and constraints

    DOE PAGES

    Hooper, Dan; Witte, Samuel J.

    2017-04-11

    Utilizing data from the ELVIS and Via Lactea-II simulations, we characterize the local dark matter subhalo population, and use this information to refine the predictions for the gamma-ray fluxes arising from annihilating dark matter in this class of objects. We find that the shapes of nearby subhalos are significantly altered by tidal effects, and are generally not well described by NFW density profiles, instead prefering power-law profiles with an exponential cutoff. From the subhalo candidates detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope, we place limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section that are only modestly weaker than those basedmore » on observations of dwarf galaxies. Furthermore, we also calculate the fraction of observable subhalos that are predicted to be spatially extended at a level potentially discernible to Fermi.« less

  12. Gamma rays from dark matter subhalos revisited: refining the predictions and constraints

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hooper, Dan; Witte, Samuel J., E-mail: dhooper@fnal.gov, E-mail: switte@physics.ucla.edu

    2017-04-01

    Utilizing data from the ELVIS and Via Lactea-II simulations, we characterize the local dark matter subhalo population, and use this information to refine the predictions for the gamma-ray fluxes arising from annihilating dark matter in this class of objects. We find that the shapes of nearby subhalos are significantly altered by tidal effects, and are generally not well described by NFW density profiles, instead prefering power-law profiles with an exponential cutoff. From the subhalo candidates detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope, we place limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section that are only modestly weaker than those basedmore » on observations of dwarf galaxies. We also calculate the fraction of observable subhalos that are predicted to be spatially extended at a level potentially discernible to Fermi.« less

  13. Gamma rays from dark matter subhalos revisited: Refining the predictions and constraints

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hooper, Dan; Witte, Samuel J.

    Utilizing data from the ELVIS and Via Lactea-II simulations, we characterize the local dark matter subhalo population, and use this information to refine the predictions for the gamma-ray fluxes arising from annihilating dark matter in this class of objects. We find that the shapes of nearby subhalos are significantly altered by tidal effects, and are generally not well described by NFW density profiles, instead prefering power-law profiles with an exponential cutoff. From the subhalo candidates detected by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope, we place limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section that are only modestly weaker than those basedmore » on observations of dwarf galaxies. Furthermore, we also calculate the fraction of observable subhalos that are predicted to be spatially extended at a level potentially discernible to Fermi.« less

  14. Internal Variations in Empirical Oxygen Abundances for Giant H II Regions in the Galaxy NGC 2403

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Ye-Wei; Lin, Lin; Kong, Xu

    2018-02-01

    This paper presents a spectroscopic investigation of 11 {{H}} {{II}} regions in the nearby galaxy NGC 2403. The {{H}} {{II}} regions are observed with a long-slit spectrograph mounted on the 2.16 m telescope at XingLong station of National Astronomical Observatories of China. For each of the {{H}} {{II}} regions, spectra are extracted at different nebular radii along the slit-coverage. Oxygen abundances are empirically estimated from the strong-line indices R23, N2O2, O3N2, and N2 for each spectrophotometric unit, with both observation- and model-based calibrations adopted into the derivation. Radial profiles of these diversely estimated abundances are drawn for each nebula. In the results, the oxygen abundances separately estimated with the prescriptions on the basis of observations and models, albeit from the same spectral index, systematically deviate from each other; at the same time, the spectral indices R23 and N2O2 are distributed with flat profiles, whereas N2 and O3N2 exhibit apparent gradients with the nebular radius. Because our study naturally samples various ionization levels, which inherently decline at larger radii within individual {{H}} {{II}} regions, the radial distributions indicate not only the robustness of R23 and N2O2 against ionization variations but also the sensitivity of N2 and O3N2 to the ionization parameter. The results in this paper provide observational corroboration of the theoretical prediction about the deviation in the empirical abundance diagnostics. Our future work is planned to investigate metal-poor {{H}} {{II}} regions with measurable T e, in an attempt to recalibrate the strong-line indices and consequently disclose the cause of the discrepancies between the empirical oxygen abundances.

  15. Planet-Planet Scattering in Planetesimal Disks. II. Predictions for Outer Extrasolar Planetary Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raymond, Sean N.; Armitage, Philip J.; Gorelick, Noel

    2010-03-01

    We develop an idealized dynamical model to predict the typical properties of outer extrasolar planetary systems, at radii comparable to the Jupiter-to-Neptune region of the solar system. The model is based upon the hypothesis that dynamical evolution in outer planetary systems is controlled by a combination of planet-planet scattering and planetary interactions with an exterior disk of small bodies ("planetesimals"). Our results are based on 5000 long duration N-body simulations that follow the evolution of three planets from a few to 10 AU, together with a planetesimal disk containing 50 M ⊕ from 10 to 20 AU. For large planet masses (M >~ M Sat), the model recovers the observed eccentricity distribution of extrasolar planets. For lower-mass planets, the range of outcomes in models with disks is far greater than that which is seen in isolated planet-planet scattering. Common outcomes include strong scattering among massive planets, sudden jumps in eccentricity due to resonance crossings driven by divergent migration, and re-circularization of scattered low-mass planets in the outer disk. We present the distributions of the eccentricity and inclination that result, and discuss how they vary with planet mass and initial system architecture. In agreement with other studies, we find that the currently observed eccentricity distribution (derived primarily from planets at a <~ 3 AU) is consistent with isolated planet-planet scattering. We explain the observed mass dependence—which is in the opposite sense from that predicted by the simplest scattering models—as a consequence of strong correlations between planet masses in the same system. At somewhat larger radii, initial planetary mass correlations and disk effects can yield similar modest changes to the eccentricity distribution. Nonetheless, strong damping of eccentricity for low-mass planets at large radii appears to be a secure signature of the dynamical influence of disks. Radial velocity measurements capable

  16. Integrating data from randomized controlled trials and observational studies to predict the response to pregabalin in patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy.

    PubMed

    Alexander, Joe; Edwards, Roger A; Savoldelli, Alberto; Manca, Luigi; Grugni, Roberto; Emir, Birol; Whalen, Ed; Watt, Stephen; Brodsky, Marina; Parsons, Bruce

    2017-07-20

    More patient-specific medical care is expected as more is learned about variations in patient responses to medical treatments. Analytical tools enable insights by linking treatment responses from different types of studies, such as randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Given the importance of evidence from both types of studies, our goal was to integrate these types of data into a single predictive platform to help predict response to pregabalin in individual patients with painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy (pDPN). We utilized three pivotal RCTs of pregabalin (398 North American patients) and the largest observational study of pregabalin (3159 German patients). We implemented a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify patient clusters in the Observational Study to which RCT patients could be matched using the coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique, thereby creating a matched dataset. We then developed autoregressive moving average models (ARMAXs) to estimate weekly pain scores for pregabalin-treated patients in each cluster in the matched dataset using the maximum likelihood method. Finally, we validated ARMAX models using Observational Study patients who had not matched with RCT patients, using t tests between observed and predicted pain scores. Cluster analysis yielded six clusters (287-777 patients each) with the following clustering variables: gender, age, pDPN duration, body mass index, depression history, pregabalin monotherapy, prior gabapentin use, baseline pain score, and baseline sleep interference. CEM yielded 1528 unique patients in the matched dataset. The reduction in global imbalance scores for the clusters after adding the RCT patients (ranging from 6 to 63% depending on the cluster) demonstrated that the process reduced the bias of covariates in five of the six clusters. ARMAX models of pain score performed well (R 2 : 0.85-0.91; root mean square errors: 0.53-0.57). t tests did not show differences between observed

  17. A Statistical Analysis of Langmuir Wave-Electron Correlations Observed by the CHARM II Auroral Sounding Rocket

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowski, M. P.; Labelle, J. W.; Kletzing, C.; Bounds, S. R.; Kaeppler, S. R.

    2014-12-01

    Langmuir-mode electron plasma waves are frequently observed by spacecraft in active plasma environments such as the ionosphere. Ionospheric Langmuir waves may be excited by the bump-on-tail instability generated by impinging beams of electrons traveling parallel to the background magnetic field (B). The Correlation of High-frequencies and Auroral Roar Measurement (CHARM II) sounding rocket was launched into a substorm at 9:49 UT on 17 February 2010, from the Poker Flat Research Range in Alaska. The primary instruments included the University of Iowa Wave-Particle Correlator (WPC), the Dartmouth High-Frequency Experiment (HFE), several charged particle detectors, low-frequency wave instruments, and a magnetometer. The HFE is a receiver system which effectively yields continuous (100% duty cycle) electric-field waveform measurements from 100 kHz to 5 MHz, and which had its detection axis aligned nominally parallel to B. The HFE output was fed on-payload to the WPC, which uses a phase-locked loop to track the incoming wave frequency with the most power, then sorting incoming electrons at eight energy levels into sixteen wave-phase bins. CHARM II encountered several regions of strong Langmuir wave activity throughout its 15-minute flight, and the WPC showed wave-lock and statistically significant particle correlation distributions during several time periods. We show results of an in-depth analysis of the CHARM II WPC data for the entire flight, including statistical analysis of correlations which show evidence of direct interaction with the Langmuir waves, indicating (at various times) trapping of particles and both driving and damping of Langmuir waves by particles. In particular, the sign of the gradient in particle flux appears to correlate with the phase relation between the electrons and the wave field, with possible implications for the wave physics.

  18. Copernicus observations of distant unreddened stars. II - Line of sight to HD 50896

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shull, J. M.

    1977-01-01

    Copernicus UV data on interstellar lines toward HD 50896, a Wolf-Rayet star, are analyzed to study abundances and physical conditions in the line of sight. About 20% of the low-velocity neutral gas is contained in a dense cloud with 10% to 50% of its hydrogen in molecular form; the atomic abundances show typical interstellar depletions. The low-velocity H II gas may be associated with the high ionizing flux of the Wolf-Rayet star or with H II regions along the line of sight. Si III exhibits strong absorption shortward of the low-velocity H II gas, characteristic of a collisionally ionized component at 30,000 to 80,000 K; the possible connections with an unobserved supernova remnant or stellar mass loss are discussed. High-velocity features at 78 and -96 km/sec, in which Fe and Si are near their cosmic abundances, are also indicative of strong shocks.

  19. Potential observation of the ϒ (6 S )→ϒ (13DJ)η transitions at Belle II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qi; Xu, Hao; Liu, Xiang; Matsuki, Takayuki

    2018-05-01

    We perform the investigation of two-body hidden-bottom transitions of the ϒ (6 S ), which include ϒ (6 S )→ϒ (13DJ)η (J =1 ,2 ,3 ) decays. For estimating the branching ratios of these processes, we consider contributions from the triangle hadronic loops composed of S -wave B(s ) and B(s) * mesons, which are a bridge to connect the ϒ (6 S ) and final states. Our results show that both of the branching ratios of these decays can reach 10-3. Because of such considerable potential to observe these two-body hidden-bottom transitions of the ϒ (6 S ), we suggest the forthcoming Belle II experiment to explore them.

  20. Herschel - PACS Survey Of Protoplanetary Disks In Taurus - Auriga Observations Of [O I] And [C Ii], And Far-Infrared Continuum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Christian; Sandell, Goeran; Vacca, William D.; Duchene, Gaspard; Matthews, Geoffrey; Augereau, Jean-Charles; Barbado, David; Dent, William R. F.; Eiroa, Carlos; Grady, Carol; hide

    2013-01-01

    The Herschel Space Observatory was used to observe approx. 120 pre-main-sequence stars in Taurus as part of the GASPS Open Time Key project. Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer was used to measure the continuum as well as several gas tracers such as [O I] 63 micron, [O I] 145 micron, [C II] 158, micron OH, H2O, and CO. The strongest line seen is [O I] at 63 micron. We find a clear correlation between the strength of the [O I] 63 micron line and the 63 micron continuum for disk sources. In outflow sources, the line emission can be up to 20 times stronger than in disk sources, suggesting that the line emission is dominated by the outflow. The tight correlation seen for disk sources suggests that the emission arises from the inner disk (<50 AU) and lower surface layers of the disk where the gas and dust are coupled. The [O I] 63 micron is fainter in transitional stars than in normal Class II disks. Simple spectral energy distribution models indicate that the dust responsible for the continuum emission is colder in these disks, leading to weaker line emission. [C II] 158 micron emission is only detected in strong outflow sources. The observed line ratios of [O I] 63 micron to [O I] 145 micron are in the regime where we are insensitive to the gas-to-dust ratio, neither can we discriminate between shock or photodissociation region emission. We detect no Class III object in [O I] 63 micron and only three in continuum, at least one of which is a candidate debris disk.

  1. Probability distributions of molecular observables computed from Markov models. II. Uncertainties in observables and their time-evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodera, John D.; Noé, Frank

    2010-09-01

    Discrete-state Markov (or master equation) models provide a useful simplified representation for characterizing the long-time statistical evolution of biomolecules in a manner that allows direct comparison with experiments as well as the elucidation of mechanistic pathways for an inherently stochastic process. A vital part of meaningful comparison with experiment is the characterization of the statistical uncertainty in the predicted experimental measurement, which may take the form of an equilibrium measurement of some spectroscopic signal, the time-evolution of this signal following a perturbation, or the observation of some statistic (such as the correlation function) of the equilibrium dynamics of a single molecule. Without meaningful error bars (which arise from both approximation and statistical error), there is no way to determine whether the deviations between model and experiment are statistically meaningful. Previous work has demonstrated that a Bayesian method that enforces microscopic reversibility can be used to characterize the statistical component of correlated uncertainties in state-to-state transition probabilities (and functions thereof) for a model inferred from molecular simulation data. Here, we extend this approach to include the uncertainty in observables that are functions of molecular conformation (such as surrogate spectroscopic signals) characterizing each state, permitting the full statistical uncertainty in computed spectroscopic experiments to be assessed. We test the approach in a simple model system to demonstrate that the computed uncertainties provide a useful indicator of statistical variation, and then apply it to the computation of the fluorescence autocorrelation function measured for a dye-labeled peptide previously studied by both experiment and simulation.

  2. USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions

    PubMed Central

    Crimmins, Michael A.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Weltzin, Jake F.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose In support of science and society, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) maintains a rapidly growing, continental-scale, species-rich dataset of plant and animal phenology observations that with over 10 million records is the largest such database in the United States. The aim of this study was to explore the potential that exists in the broad and rich volunteer-collected dataset maintained by the USA-NPN for constructing models predicting the timing of phenological transition across species’ ranges within the continental United States. Contributed voluntarily by professional and citizen scientists, these opportunistically collected observations are characterized by spatial clustering, inconsistent spatial and temporal sampling, and short temporal depth (2009-present). Whether data exhibiting such limitations can be used to develop predictive models appropriate for use across large geographic regions has not yet been explored. Methods We constructed predictive models for phenophases that are the most abundant in the database and also relevant to management applications for all species with available data, regardless of plant growth habit, location, geographic extent, or temporal depth of the observations. We implemented a very basic model formulation—thermal time models with a fixed start date. Results Sufficient data were available to construct 107 individual species × phenophase models. Remarkably, given the limited temporal depth of this dataset and the simple modeling approach used, fifteen of these models (14%) met our criteria for model fit and error. The majority of these models represented the “breaking leaf buds” and “leaves” phenophases and represented shrub or tree growth forms. Accumulated growing degree day (GDD) thresholds that emerged ranged from 454 GDDs (Amelanchier canadensis-breaking leaf buds) to 1,300 GDDs (Prunus serotina-open flowers). Such candidate thermal time thresholds can be used to produce real-time and

  3. Prediction of local concentration statistics in variably saturated soils: Influence of observation scale and comparison with field data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Wendy; Destouni, Georgia; Demmy, George; Foussereau, Xavier

    1998-07-01

    The methodology developed in Destouni and Graham [Destouni, G., Graham, W.D., 1997. The influence of observation method on local concentration statistics in the subsurface. Water Resour. Res. 33 (4) 663-676.] for predicting locally measured concentration statistics for solute transport in heterogeneous porous media under saturated flow conditions is applied to the prediction of conservative nonreactive solute transport in the vadose zone where observations are obtained by soil coring. Exact analytical solutions are developed for both the mean and variance of solute concentrations measured in discrete soil cores using a simplified physical model for vadose-zone flow and solute transport. Theoretical results show that while the ensemble mean concentration is relatively insensitive to the length-scale of the measurement, predictions of the concentration variance are significantly impacted by the sampling interval. Results also show that accounting for vertical heterogeneity in the soil profile results in significantly less spreading in the mean and variance of the measured solute breakthrough curves, indicating that it is important to account for vertical heterogeneity even for relatively small travel distances. Model predictions for both the mean and variance of locally measured solute concentration, based on independently estimated model parameters, agree well with data from a field tracer test conducted in Manatee County, Florida.

  4. HERSCHEL SPECTROSCOPIC OBSERVATIONS OF LITTLE THINGS DWARF GALAXIES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cigan, Phil; Young, Lisa; Cormier, Diane

    We present far-infrared (FIR) spectral line observations of five galaxies from the Little Things sample: DDO 69, DDO 70, DDO 75, DDO 155, and WLM. While most studies of dwarfs focus on bright systems or starbursts due to observational constraints, our data extend the observed parameter space into the regime of low surface brightness dwarf galaxies with low metallicities and moderate star formation rates. Our targets were observed with Herschel at the [C ii] 158 μm, [O i] 63 μm, [O iii] 88 μm, and [N ii] 122 μm emission lines using the PACS Spectrometer. These high-resolution maps allow usmore » for the first time to study the FIR properties of these systems on the scales of larger star-forming complexes. The spatial resolution in our maps, in combination with star formation tracers, allows us to identify separate photodissociation regions (PDRs) in some of the regions we observed. Our systems have widespread [C ii] emission that is bright relative to continuum, averaging near 0.5% of the total infrared (TIR) budget—higher than in solar-metallicity galaxies of other types. [N ii] is weak, suggesting that the [C ii] emission in our galaxies comes mostly from PDRs instead of the diffuse ionized interstellar medium (ISM). These systems exhibit efficient cooling at low dust temperatures, as shown by ([O i]+[C ii])/TIR in relation to 60 μm/100 μm, and low [O i]/[C ii] ratios which indicate that [C ii] is the dominant coolant of the ISM. We observe [O iii]/[C ii] ratios in our galaxies that are lower than those published for other dwarfs, but similar to levels noted in spirals.« less

  5. Comparing the predictive capacity of observed in-session resistance to self-reported motivation in cognitive behavioral therapy.

    PubMed

    Westra, Henny A

    2011-02-01

    Self-report measures of motivation for changing anxiety have been weakly and inconsistently related to outcome in cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). While clients may not be able to accurately report their motivation, ambivalence about change may nonetheless be expressed in actual therapy sessions as opposition to the direction set by the therapist (i.e., resistance). In the context of CBT for generalized anxiety disorder, the present study compared the ability of observed in-session resistance in CBT session 1 and two self-report measures of motivation for changing anxiety (the Change Questionnaire & the Client Motivational for Therapy Scale) to (1) predict client and therapist rated homework compliance (2) predict post-CBT and one-year post-treatment worry reduction, and (3) differentiate those who received motivational interviewing prior to CBT from those who received no pre-treatment. Observed in-session resistance performed very well on each index, compared to the performance of self-reported motivation which was inconsistent and weaker relative to observed resistance. These findings strongly support both clinician sensitivity to moments of client resistance in actual therapy sessions as early as session 1, and the inclusion of observational process measures in CBT research. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Early prediction of intensive care unit-acquired weakness using easily available parameters: a prospective observational study.

    PubMed

    Wieske, Luuk; Witteveen, Esther; Verhamme, Camiel; Dettling-Ihnenfeldt, Daniela S; van der Schaaf, Marike; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke

    2014-01-01

    An early diagnosis of Intensive Care Unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) using muscle strength assessment is not possible in most critically ill patients. We hypothesized that development of ICU-AW can be predicted reliably two days after ICU admission, using patient characteristics, early available clinical parameters, laboratory results and use of medication as parameters. Newly admitted ICU patients mechanically ventilated ≥2 days were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Manual muscle strength was measured according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale, when patients were awake and attentive. ICU-AW was defined as an average MRC score <4. A prediction model was developed by selecting predictors from an a-priori defined set of candidate predictors, based on known risk factors. Discriminative performance of the prediction model was evaluated, validated internally and compared to the APACHE IV and SOFA score. Of 212 included patients, 103 developed ICU-AW. Highest lactate levels, treatment with any aminoglycoside in the first two days after admission and age were selected as predictors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the prediction model was 0.71 after internal validation. The new prediction model improved discrimination compared to the APACHE IV and the SOFA score. The new early prediction model for ICU-AW using a set of 3 easily available parameters has fair discriminative performance. This model needs external validation.

  7. Accessing the public MIMIC-II intensive care relational database for clinical research.

    PubMed

    Scott, Daniel J; Lee, Joon; Silva, Ikaro; Park, Shinhyuk; Moody, George B; Celi, Leo A; Mark, Roger G

    2013-01-10

    The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database is a free, public resource for intensive care research. The database was officially released in 2006, and has attracted a growing number of researchers in academia and industry. We present the two major software tools that facilitate accessing the relational database: the web-based QueryBuilder and a downloadable virtual machine (VM) image. QueryBuilder and the MIMIC-II VM have been developed successfully and are freely available to MIMIC-II users. Simple example SQL queries and the resulting data are presented. Clinical studies pertaining to acute kidney injury and prediction of fluid requirements in the intensive care unit are shown as typical examples of research performed with MIMIC-II. In addition, MIMIC-II has also provided data for annual PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenges, including the 2012 Challenge "Predicting mortality of ICU Patients". QueryBuilder is a web-based tool that provides easy access to MIMIC-II. For more computationally intensive queries, one can locally install a complete copy of MIMIC-II in a VM. Both publicly available tools provide the MIMIC-II research community with convenient querying interfaces and complement the value of the MIMIC-II relational database.

  8. Accessing the public MIMIC-II intensive care relational database for clinical research

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database is a free, public resource for intensive care research. The database was officially released in 2006, and has attracted a growing number of researchers in academia and industry. We present the two major software tools that facilitate accessing the relational database: the web-based QueryBuilder and a downloadable virtual machine (VM) image. Results QueryBuilder and the MIMIC-II VM have been developed successfully and are freely available to MIMIC-II users. Simple example SQL queries and the resulting data are presented. Clinical studies pertaining to acute kidney injury and prediction of fluid requirements in the intensive care unit are shown as typical examples of research performed with MIMIC-II. In addition, MIMIC-II has also provided data for annual PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenges, including the 2012 Challenge “Predicting mortality of ICU Patients”. Conclusions QueryBuilder is a web-based tool that provides easy access to MIMIC-II. For more computationally intensive queries, one can locally install a complete copy of MIMIC-II in a VM. Both publicly available tools provide the MIMIC-II research community with convenient querying interfaces and complement the value of the MIMIC-II relational database. PMID:23302652

  9. Empirical Modeling of the Redshift Evolution of the [{\\rm{N}}\\,{\\rm{II}}]/Hα Ratio for Galaxy Redshift Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faisst, Andreas L.; Masters, Daniel; Wang, Yun; Merson, Alexander; Capak, Peter; Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James E.

    2018-03-01

    We present an empirical parameterization of the [N II]/Hα flux ratio as a function of stellar mass and redshift valid at 0 < z < 2.7 and 8.5< {log}(M/{M}ȯ )< 11.0. This description can (i) easily be applied to simulations for modeling [N II]λ6584 line emission, (ii) deblend [N II] and Hα in current low-resolution grism and narrow-band observations to derive intrinsic Hα fluxes, and (iii) reliably forecast the number counts of Hα emission-line galaxies for future surveys, such as those planned for Euclid and the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). Our model combines the evolution of the locus on the Baldwin, Phillips & Terlevich (BPT) diagram measured in spectroscopic data out to z ∼ 2.5 with the strong dependence of [N II]/Hα on stellar mass and [O III]/Hβ observed in local galaxy samples. We find large variations in the [N II]/Hα flux ratio at a fixed redshift due to its dependency on stellar mass; hence, the assumption of a constant [N II] flux contamination fraction can lead to a significant under- or overestimate of Hα luminosities. Specifically, measurements of the intrinsic Hα luminosity function derived from current low-resolution grism spectroscopy assuming a constant 29% contamination of [N II] can be overestimated by factors of ∼8 at {log}(L)> 43.0 for galaxies at redshifts z ∼ 1.5. This has implications for the prediction of Hα emitters for Euclid and WFIRST. We also study the impact of blended Hα and [N II] on the accuracy of measured spectroscopic redshifts.

  10. Prediction of overall survival in stage II and III colon cancer beyond TNM system: a retrospective, pooled biomarker study.

    PubMed

    Dienstmann, R; Mason, M J; Sinicrope, F A; Phipps, A I; Tejpar, S; Nesbakken, A; Danielsen, S A; Sveen, A; Buchanan, D D; Clendenning, M; Rosty, C; Bot, B; Alberts, S R; Milburn Jessup, J; Lothe, R A; Delorenzi, M; Newcomb, P A; Sargent, D; Guinney, J

    2017-05-01

    TNM staging alone does not accurately predict outcome in colon cancer (CC) patients who may be eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy. It is unknown to what extent the molecular markers microsatellite instability (MSI) and mutations in BRAF or KRAS improve prognostic estimation in multivariable models that include detailed clinicopathological annotation. After imputation of missing at random data, a subset of patients accrued in phase 3 trials with adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 3016)-N0147 (NCT00079274) and PETACC3 (NCT00026273)-was aggregated to construct multivariable Cox models for 5-year overall survival that were subsequently validated internally in the remaining clinical trial samples (n = 1499), and also externally in different population cohorts of chemotherapy-treated (n = 949) or -untreated (n = 1080) CC patients, and an additional series without treatment annotation (n = 782). TNM staging, MSI and BRAFV600E mutation status remained independent prognostic factors in multivariable models across clinical trials cohorts and observational studies. Concordance indices increased from 0.61-0.68 in the TNM alone model to 0.63-0.71 in models with added molecular markers, 0.65-0.73 with clinicopathological features and 0.66-0.74 with all covariates. In validation cohorts with complete annotation, the integrated time-dependent AUC rose from 0.64 for the TNM alone model to 0.67 for models that included clinicopathological features, with or without molecular markers. In patient cohorts that received adjuvant chemotherapy, the relative proportion of variance explained (R2) by TNM, clinicopathological features and molecular markers was on an average 65%, 25% and 10%, respectively. Incorporation of MSI, BRAFV600E and KRAS mutation status to overall survival models with TNM staging improves the ability to precisely prognosticate in stage II and III CC patients, but only modestly increases prediction accuracy in multivariable models that include

  11. Generalized predictive control for a coupled four tank MIMO system using a continuous-discrete time observer.

    PubMed

    Gouta, Houssemeddine; Hadj Saïd, Salim; Barhoumi, Nabil; M'Sahli, Faouzi

    2017-03-01

    This paper deals with the problem of the observer based control design for a coupled four-tank liquid level system. For this MIMO system's dynamics, motivated by a desire to provide precise and sensorless liquid level control, a nonlinear predictive controller based on a continuous-discrete observer is presented. First, an analytical solution from the model predictive control (MPC) technique is developed for a particular class of nonlinear MIMO systems and its corresponding exponential stability is proven. Then, a high gain observer that runs in continuous-time with an output error correction time that is updated in a mixed continuous-discrete fashion is designed in order to estimate the liquid levels in the two upper tanks. The effectiveness of the designed control schemes are validated by two tests; The first one is maintaining a constant level in the first bottom tank while making the level in the second bottom tank to follow a sinusoidal reference signal. The second test is more difficult and it is made using two trapezoidal reference signals in order to see the decoupling performance of the system's outputs. Simulation and experimental results validate the objective of the paper. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part II: QSAR models of skin permeability and the relationships between skin permeability and skin sensitization

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599; Muratov, Eugene

    Skin permeability is widely considered to be mechanistically implicated in chemically-induced skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been identified as skin sensitizers, there have been very few reports analyzing the relationships between molecular structure and skin permeability of sensitizers and non-sensitizers. The goals of this study were to: (i) compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset of chemicals studied for their skin permeability; (ii) develop and rigorously validate QSAR models to predict skin permeability; and (iii) explore the complex relationships between skin sensitization and skin permeability. Based on the largest publicly available dataset compiled in this study, wemore » found no overall correlation between skin permeability and skin sensitization. In addition, cross-species correlation coefficient between human and rodent permeability data was found to be as low as R{sup 2} = 0.44. Human skin permeability models based on the random forest method have been developed and validated using OECD-compliant QSAR modeling workflow. Their external accuracy was high (Q{sup 2}{sub ext} = 0.73 for 63% of external compounds inside the applicability domain). The extended analysis using both experimentally-measured and QSAR-imputed data still confirmed the absence of any overall concordance between skin permeability and skin sensitization. This observation suggests that chemical modifications that affect skin permeability should not be presumed a priori to modulate the sensitization potential of chemicals. The models reported herein as well as those developed in the companion paper on skin sensitization suggest that it may be possible to rationally design compounds with the desired high skin permeability but low sensitization potential. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin permeability dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin permeability. • No concordance between

  13. Evaluation of Coronary Artery Stenosis by Quantitative Flow Ratio During Invasive Coronary Angiography: The WIFI II Study (Wire-Free Functional Imaging II).

    PubMed

    Westra, Jelmer; Tu, Shengxian; Winther, Simon; Nissen, Louise; Vestergaard, Mai-Britt; Andersen, Birgitte Krogsgaard; Holck, Emil Nielsen; Fox Maule, Camilla; Johansen, Jane Kirk; Andreasen, Lene Nyhus; Simonsen, Jo Krogsgaard; Zhang, Yimin; Kristensen, Steen Dalby; Maeng, Michael; Kaltoft, Anne; Terkelsen, Christian Juhl; Krusell, Lars Romer; Jakobsen, Lars; Reiber, Johan H C; Lassen, Jens Flensted; Bøttcher, Morten; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Christiansen, Evald Høj; Holm, Niels Ramsing

    2018-03-01

    Quantitative flow ratio (QFR) is a novel diagnostic modality for functional testing of coronary artery stenosis without the use of pressure wires and induction of hyperemia. QFR is based on computation of standard invasive coronary angiographic imaging. The purpose of WIFI II (Wire-Free Functional Imaging II) was to evaluate the feasibility and diagnostic performance of QFR in unselected consecutive patients. WIFI II was a predefined substudy to the Dan-NICAD study (Danish Study of Non-Invasive Diagnostic Testing in Coronary Artery Disease), referring 362 consecutive patients with suspected coronary artery disease on coronary computed tomographic angiography for diagnostic invasive coronary angiography. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) was measured in all segments with 30% to 90% diameter stenosis. Blinded observers calculated QFR (Medis Medical Imaging bv, The Netherlands) for comparison with FFR. FFR was measured in 292 lesions from 191 patients. Ten (5%) and 9 patients (5%) were excluded because of FFR and angiographic core laboratory criteria, respectively. QFR was successfully computed in 240 out of 255 lesions (94%) with a mean diameter stenosis of 50±12%. Mean difference between FFR and QFR was 0.01±0.08. QFR correctly classified 83% of the lesions using FFR with cutoff at 0.80 as reference standard. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.91) with a sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of 77%, 86%, 75%, and 87%, respectively. A QFR-FFR hybrid approach based on the present results enables wire-free and adenosine-free procedures in 68% of cases. Functional lesion evaluation by QFR assessment showed good agreement and diagnostic accuracy compared with FFR. Studies comparing clinical outcome after QFR- and FFR-based diagnostic strategies are required. URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02264717. © 2018 The Authors.

  14. Phenological observations on shrubs to predict weed emergence in turf.

    PubMed

    Masin, Roberta; Zuin, Maria Clara; Zanin, Giuseppe

    2005-09-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic biological events. If we can find easily recognizable events in common plants that precede or coincide with weed emergences, these plants could be used as indicators. Weed seedlings are usually difficult to detect in turf, so the use of phenological indicators may provide an alternative approach to predict the time when a weed appears and consequently guide management decisions. A study was undertaken to determine whether the phenological phases of some plants could serve as reliable indicators of time of weed emergence in turf. The phenology of six shrubs (Crataegus monogyna Jacq., Forsythia viridissima Lindl., Sambucus nigra L., Syringa vulgaris L., Rosa multiflora Thunb., Ziziphus jujuba Miller) and a perennial herbaceous plant [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] was observed and the emergence dynamics of four annual weed species [Digitaria sanguinalis (L.) Scop., Eleusine indica (L.) Gaertner, Setaria glauca (L.) Beauv., Setaria viridis (L.) Beauv.] were studied from 1999 to 2004 in northern Italy. A correlation between certain events and weed emergence was verified. S. vulgaris and F. viridissima appear to be the best indicators: there is a quite close correspondence between the appearance of D. sanguinalis and lilac flowering and between the beginning of emergence of E. indica and the end of lilac flowering; emergences of S. glauca and S. viridis were predicted well in relation to the end of forsythia flowering. Base temperatures and starting dates required to calculate the heat unit sums to reach and complete the flowering phase of the indicators were calculated using two different methods and the resultant cumulative growing degree days were compared.

  15. Phenological observations on shrubs to predict weed emergence in turf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masin, Roberta; Zuin, Maria Clara; Zanin, Giuseppe

    2005-09-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic biological events. If we can find easily recognizable events in common plants that precede or coincide with weed emergences, these plants could be used as indicators. Weed seedlings are usually difficult to detect in turf, so the use of phenological indicators may provide an alternative approach to predict the time when a weed appears and consequently guide management decisions. A study was undertaken to determine whether the phenological phases of some plants could serve as reliable indicators of time of weed emergence in turf. The phenology of six shrubs (Crataegus monogyna Jacq., Forsythia viridissima Lindl., Sambucus nigra L., Syringa vulgaris L., Rosa multiflora Thunb., Ziziphus jujuba Miller) and a perennial herbaceous plant [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] was observed and the emergence dynamics of four annual weed species [Digitaria sanguinalis (L.) Scop., Eleusine indica (L.) Gaertner, Setaria glauca (L.) Beauv., Setaria viridis (L.) Beauv.] were studied from 1999 to 2004 in northern Italy. A correlation between certain events and weed emergence was verified. S. vulgaris and F. viridissima appear to be the best indicators: there is a quite close correspondence between the appearance of D. sanguinalis and lilac flowering and between the beginning of emergence of E. indica and the end of lilac flowering; emergences of S. glauca and S. viridis were predicted well in relation to the end of forsythia flowering. Base temperatures and starting dates required to calculate the heat unit sums to reach and complete the flowering phase of the indicators were calculated using two different methods and the resultant cumulative growing degree days were compared.

  16. Three-dimensional (3D) structure prediction of the American and African oil-palms β-ketoacyl-[ACP] synthase-II protein by comparative modelling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Edina; Chinni, Suresh; Bhore, Subhash Janardhan

    2014-01-01

    The fatty-acid profile of the vegetable oils determines its properties and nutritional value. Palm-oil obtained from the African oil-palm [Elaeis guineensis Jacq. (Tenera)] contains 44% palmitic acid (C16:0), but, palm-oil obtained from the American oilpalm [Elaeis oleifera] contains only 25% C16:0. In part, the b-ketoacyl-[ACP] synthase II (KASII) [EC: 2.3.1.179] protein is responsible for the high level of C16:0 in palm-oil derived from the African oil-palm. To understand more about E. guineensis KASII (EgKASII) and E. oleifera KASII (EoKASII) proteins, it is essential to know its structures. Hence, this study was undertaken. The objective of this study was to predict three-dimensional (3D) structure of EgKASII and EoKASII proteins using molecular modelling tools. The amino-acid sequences for KASII proteins were retrieved from the protein database of National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), USA. The 3D structures were predicted for both proteins using homology modelling and ab-initio technique approach of protein structure prediction. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation was performed to refine the predicted structures. The predicted structure models were evaluated and root mean square deviation (RMSD) and root mean square fluctuation (RMSF) values were calculated. The homology modelling showed that EgKASII and EoKASII proteins are 78% and 74% similar with Streptococcus pneumonia KASII and Brucella melitensis KASII, respectively. The EgKASII and EoKASII structures predicted by using ab-initio technique approach shows 6% and 9% deviation to its structures predicted by homology modelling, respectively. The structure refinement and validation confirmed that the predicted structures are accurate. The 3D structures for EgKASII and EoKASII proteins were predicted. However, further research is essential to understand the interaction of EgKASII and EoKASII proteins with its substrates.

  17. Chromospheric heating by acoustic shocks - A confrontation of GHRS observations of Alpha Tauri (K5 III) with ab initio calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Judge, P. G.; Cuntz, M.

    1993-01-01

    We compare ab initio calculations of semiforbidden C II line profiles near 2325 A with recently published observations of the inactive red giant Alpha Tau (K5 III) obtained using the GHRS on board the Hubble Space Telescope. Our one-dimensional, time-dependent calculations assume that the chromosphere is heated by stochastic acoustic shocks generated by photospheric convection. We calculate various models using results from traditional (mixing length) convection zone calculations as input to hydrodynamical models. The semiforbidden C II line profiles and ratios provide sensitive diagnostics of chromospheric velocity fields, electron densities, and temperatures. We identify major differences between observed and computed line profiles which are related to basic gas dynamics and which are probably not due to technical modeling restrictions. If the GHRS observations are representative of chromospheric conditions at all epochs, then one (or more) of our model assumptions must be incorrect. Several possibilities are examined. We predict time variability of semiforbidden C II lines for comparison with observations. Based upon data from the IUE archives, we argue that photospheric motions associated with supergranulation or global pulsation modes are unimportant in heating the chromosphere of Alpha Tau.

  18. Protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) specifically increased in Italian hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    PubMed

    Viggiani, Valentina; Palombi, Sara; Gennarini, Giuseppina; D'Ettorre, Gabriella; De Vito, Corrado; Angeloni, Antonio; Frati, Luigi; Anastasi, Emanuela

    2016-10-01

    As a marker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC), Protein Induced by Vitamin K Absence II (PIVKA-II) seems to be superior to alpha fetoprotein (AFP). To better characterize the role of PIVKA-II, both AFP and PIVKA-II have been measured in Italian patients with diagnosis of HCC compared with patients affected by non-oncological liver pathologies. Sixty serum samples from patients with HCC, 60 samples from patients with benign liver disease and 60 samples obtained from healthy blood donors were included in the study. PIVKA-II and AFP were measured by LUMIPULSE(®) G1200 (Fujirebio-Europe, Belgium). We considered as PIVKA-II cutoff 70 mAU/ml (mean +3SD) of the values observed in healthy subjects. The evaluation of PIVKA-II showed a positivity of 70% in patients with HCC and 5% in patients with benign diseases (p < 0.0001) whereas high levels of AFP were observed in 55% of HCC patients and in 47% of patients with benign diseases. The combined Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis of the two analytes revealed a higher sensitivity (75%) compared to those observed for the individual biomarkers. In conclusion, we demonstrate that as a marker for HCC, PIVKA-II is more specific for HCC and less prone to elevation during chronic liver diseases. The combination of the two biomarkers, evaluated by the ROC analysis, improved the specificity compared to a single marker. These data suggest that the combined analysis of the two markers could be a useful tool in clinical practice.

  19. Intercomparison of stratospheric water vapor observed by satellite experiments - Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II versus Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere and Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chiou, E. W.; Mccormick, M. P.; Mcmaster, L. R.; Chu, W. P.; Larsen, J. C.; Rind, D.; Oltmans, S.

    1993-01-01

    A comparison is made of the stratospheric water vapor measurements made by the satellite sensors of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II), the Nimbus-7 LIMS, and the Spacelab 3 Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment. It was found that, despite differences in the measurement techniques, sampling bias, and observational periods, the three experiments have disclosed a generally consistent pattern of stratospheric water vapor distribution. The only significant difference occurs at high southern altitudes in May below 18 km, where LIMS measurements were 2-3 ppmv greater than those of SAGE II and ATMOS.

  20. Enhanced Predictability Through Lagrangian Observations and Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-30

    Newark, DE 19716 phone: (302) 831-6836 fax: (302) 831-6521 email: brucel @udel.edu Award Number: N0014-05-1-0092 http://newark.cms.udel.edu... brucel /slmaps LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goal of this project is develop the capability to predict the origin and fate of ocean water

  1. Predicting Near Real-Time Inundation Occurrence from Complimentary Satellite Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, C. K.; Pan, M.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout the world, there is an increasing need for new methods and data that can aid decision makers, emergency responders and scientists in the monitoring of flood events as they happen. In many regions, it is possible to examine the extent of historical and real-time inundation occurrence from visible and infrared imagery provided by sensors such as MODIS or the Landsat TM; however, this is not possible in regions that are densely vegetated or are under persistent cloud cover. In addition, there is often a temporal mismatch between the sampling of a particular sensor and a given flood event, leading to limited observations in near real-time. As a result, there is a need for alternative methods that take full advantage of complimentary remotely sensed data sources, such as available microwave brightness temperature observations (e.g., SMAP, SMOS, AMSR2, AMSR-E, and GMI), to aid in the estimation of global flooding. The objective of this work was to develop a high-resolution mapping of inundated areas derived from multiple satellite microwave sensor observations with a daily temporal resolution. This system consists of first retrieving water fractions from complimentary microwave sensors (AMSR-2 and SMAP) which may spatially and temporally overlap in the region of interest. Using additional information in a Random Forest classifier, including high resolution topography and multiple datasets of inundated area (both historical and empirical), the resulting retrievals are spatially downscaled to derive estimates of the extent of inundation at a scale relevant to management and flood response activities ( 90m or better) instead of the relatively coarse resolution water fractions, which are limited by the microwave sensor footprints ( 5-50km). Here we present the training and validation of this method for the 2015 floods that occurred in Houston, Texas. Comparing the predicted inundation against historical occurrence maps derived from the Landsat TM record and MODIS

  2. Incorporating High-Throughput Exposure Predictions with ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We previously integrated dosimetry and exposure with high-throughput screening (HTS) to enhance the utility of ToxCast™ HTS data by translating in vitro bioactivity concentrations to oral equivalent doses (OEDs) required to achieve these levels internally. These OEDs were compared against regulatory exposure estimates, providing an activity-to-exposure ratio (AER) useful for a risk-based ranking strategy. As ToxCast™ efforts expand (i.e., Phase II) beyond food-use pesticides towards a wider chemical domain that lacks exposure and toxicity information, prediction tools become increasingly important. In this study, in vitro hepatic clearance and plasma protein binding were measured to estimate OEDs for a subset of Phase II chemicals. OEDs were compared against high-throughput (HT) exposure predictions generated using probabilistic modeling and Bayesian approaches generated by the U.S. EPA ExpoCast™ program. This approach incorporated chemical-specific use and national production volume data with biomonitoring data to inform the exposure predictions. This HT exposure modeling approach provided predictions for all Phase II chemicals assessed in this study whereas estimates from regulatory sources were available for only 7% of chemicals. Of the 163 chemicals assessed in this study, three or 13 chemicals possessed AERs <1 or <100, respectively. Diverse bioactivities y across a range of assays and concentrations was also noted across the wider chemical space su

  3. Predicting Directly Measured Trunk and Upper Arm Postures in Paper Mill Work From Administrative Data, Workers' Ratings and Posture Observations.

    PubMed

    Heiden, Marina; Garza, Jennifer; Trask, Catherine; Mathiassen, Svend Erik

    2017-03-01

    A cost-efficient approach for assessing working postures could be to build statistical models for predicting results of direct measurements from cheaper data, and apply these models to samples in which only the latter data are available. The present study aimed to build and assess the performance of statistical models predicting inclinometer-assessed trunk and arm posture among paper mill workers. Separate models were built using administrative data, workers' ratings of their exposure, and observations of the work from video recordings as predictors. Trunk and upper arm postures were measured using inclinometry on 28 paper mill workers during three work shifts each. Simultaneously, the workers were video filmed, and their postures were assessed by observation of the videos afterwards. Workers' ratings of exposure, and administrative data on staff and production during the shifts were also collected. Linear mixed models were fitted for predicting inclinometer-assessed exposure variables (median trunk and upper arm angle, proportion of time with neutral trunk and upper arm posture, and frequency of periods in neutral trunk and upper arm inclination) from administrative data, workers' ratings, and observations, respectively. Performance was evaluated in terms of Akaike information criterion, proportion of variance explained (R2), and standard error (SE) of the model estimate. For models performing well, validity was assessed by bootstrap resampling. Models based on administrative data performed poorly (R2 ≤ 15%) and would not be useful for assessing posture in this population. Models using workers' ratings of exposure performed slightly better (8% ≤ R2 ≤ 27% for trunk posture; 14% ≤ R2 ≤ 36% for arm posture). The best model was obtained when using observational data for predicting frequency of periods with neutral arm inclination. It explained 56% of the variance in the postural exposure, and its SE was 5.6. Bootstrap validation of this model showed similar

  4. Predicting the mixed-mode I/II spatial damage propagation along 3D-printed soft interfacial layer via a hyperelastic softening model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Lei; Li, Yaning

    2018-07-01

    A methodology was developed to use a hyperelastic softening model to predict the constitutive behavior and the spatial damage propagation of nonlinear materials with damage-induced softening under mixed-mode loading. A user subroutine (ABAQUS/VUMAT) was developed for numerical implementation of the model. 3D-printed wavy soft rubbery interfacial layer was used as a material system to verify and validate the methodology. The Arruda - Boyce hyperelastic model is incorporated with the softening model to capture the nonlinear pre-and post- damage behavior of the interfacial layer under mixed Mode I/II loads. To characterize model parameters of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer, a series of scarf-joint specimens were designed, which enabled systematic variation of stress triaxiality via a single geometric parameter, the slant angle. It was found that the important model parameter m is exponentially related to the stress triaxiality. Compact tension specimens of the sinusoidal wavy interfacial layer with different waviness were designed and fabricated via multi-material 3D printing. Finite element (FE) simulations were conducted to predict the spatial damage propagation of the material within the wavy interfacial layer. Compact tension experiments were performed to verify the model prediction. The results show that the model developed is able to accurately predict the damage propagation of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer under complicated stress-state without pre-defined failure criteria.

  5. Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

    2018-05-01

    Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

  6. Preferred crystallographic orientation in the ice I ← II transformation and the flow of ice II

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennett, K.; Wenk, H.-R.; Durham, W.B.; Stern, L.A.; Kirby, S.H.

    1997-01-01

    The preferred crystallographic orientation developed during the ice I ← II transformation and during the plastic flow of ice II was measured in polycrystalline deuterium oxide (D2O) specimens using low-temperature neutron diffraction. Samples partially transformed from ice I to II under a non-hydrostatic stress developed a preferred crystallographic orientation in the ice II. Samples of pure ice II transformed from ice I under a hydrostatic stress and then when compressed axially, developed a strong preferred orientation of compression axes parallel to (1010). A match to the observed preferred orientation using the viscoplastic self-consistent theory was obtained only when (1010) [0001] was taken as the predominant slip system in ice II.

  7. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  8. Pharmacogenetic excitation of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex restores fear prediction error.

    PubMed

    Yau, Joanna Oi-Yue; McNally, Gavan P

    2015-01-07

    Pavlovian conditioning involves encoding the predictive relationship between a conditioned stimulus (CS) and an unconditioned stimulus, so that synaptic plasticity and learning is instructed by prediction error. Here we used pharmacogenetic techniques to show a causal relation between activity of rat dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) neurons and fear prediction error. We expressed the excitatory hM3Dq designer receptor exclusively activated by a designer drug (DREADD) in dmPFC and isolated actions of prediction error by using an associative blocking design. Rats were trained to fear the visual CS (CSA) in stage I via pairings with footshock. Then in stage II, rats received compound presentations of visual CSA and auditory CS (CSB) with footshock. This prior fear conditioning of CSA reduced the prediction error during stage II to block fear learning to CSB. The group of rats that received AAV-hSYN-eYFP vector that was treated with clozapine-N-oxide (CNO; 3 mg/kg, i.p.) before stage II showed blocking when tested in the absence of CNO the next day. In contrast, the groups that received AAV-hSYN-hM3Dq and AAV-CaMKIIα-hM3Dq that were treated with CNO before stage II training did not show blocking; learning toward CSB was restored. This restoration of prediction error and fear learning was specific to the injection of CNO because groups that received AAV-hSYN-hM3Dq and AAV-CaMKIIα-hM3Dq that were injected with vehicle before stage II training did show blocking. These effects were not attributable to the DREADD manipulation enhancing learning or arousal, increasing fear memory strength or asymptotic levels of fear learning, or altering fear memory retrieval. Together, these results identify a causal role for dmPFC in a signature of adaptive behavior: using the past to predict future danger and learning from errors in these predictions. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/350074-10$15.00/0.

  9. Recovering actives in multi-antitarget and target design of analogs of the myosin II inhibitor blebbistatin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, Bart I.; Guedes, Rita C.; Stevens, Christian V.; García-Sosa, Alfonso T.

    2018-05-01

    In multitarget drug design, it is critical to identify active and inactive compounds against a variety of targets and antitargets. Multitarget strategies thus test the limits of available technology, be that in screening large databases of compounds versus a large number of targets, or in using in silico methods for understanding and reliably predicting these pharmacological outcomes. In this paper, we have evaluated the potential of several in silico approaches to predict the target, antitarget and physicochemical profile of (S)-blebbistatin, the best-known myosin II ATPase inhibitor, and a series of analogs thereof. Standard and augmented structure-based design techniques could not recover the observed activity profiles. A ligand-based method using molecular fingerprints was, however, able to select actives for myosin II inhibition. Using further ligand- and structure-based methods, we also evaluated toxicity through androgen receptor binding, affinity for an array of antitargets and the ADME profile (including assay-interfering compounds) of the series. In conclusion, in the search for (S)-blebbistatin analogs, the dissimilarity distance of molecular fingerprints to known actives and the computed antitarget and physicochemical profile of the molecules can be used for compound design for molecules with potential as tools for modulating myosin II and motility-related diseases.

  10. Simplified Acute Physiology Score II as Predictor of Mortality in Intensive Care Units: A Decision Curve Analysis.

    PubMed

    Allyn, Jérôme; Ferdynus, Cyril; Bohrer, Michel; Dalban, Cécile; Valance, Dorothée; Allou, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    End-of-life decision-making in Intensive care Units (ICUs) is difficult. The main problems encountered are the lack of a reliable prediction score for death and the fact that the opinion of patients is rarely taken into consideration. The Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) is a recent method developed to evaluate the prediction models and which takes into account the wishes of patients (or surrogates) to expose themselves to the risk of obtaining a false result. Our objective was to evaluate the clinical usefulness, with DCA, of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) to predict ICU mortality. We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2011 to September 2015, in a medical-surgical 23-bed ICU at University Hospital. Performances of the SAPS II, a modified SAPS II (without AGE), and age to predict ICU mortality, were measured by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and DCA. Among the 4.370 patients admitted, 23.3% died in the ICU. Mean (standard deviation) age was 56.8 (16.7) years, and median (first-third quartile) SAPS II was 48 (34-65). Areas under ROC curves were 0.828 (0.813-0.843) for SAPS II, 0.814 (0.798-0.829) for modified SAPS II and of 0.627 (0.608-0.646) for age. DCA showed a net benefit whatever the probability threshold, especially under 0.5. DCA shows the benefits of the SAPS II to predict ICU mortality, especially when the probability threshold is low. Complementary studies are needed to define the exact role that the SAPS II can play in end-of-life decision-making in ICUs.

  11. Evaluation of a numerical model's ability to predict bed load transport observed in braided river experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter

    2018-05-01

    New data collection techniques offer numerical modelers the ability to gather and utilize high quality data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution. Such data sets are currently needed for calibration, verification, and to fuel future model development, particularly morphological simulations. This study explores the use of high quality spatial and temporal data sets of observed bed load transport in braided river flume experiments to evaluate the ability of a two-dimensional model, Delft3D, to predict bed load transport. This study uses a fixed bed model configuration and examines the model's shear stress calculations, which are the foundation to predict the sediment fluxes necessary for morphological simulations. The evaluation is conducted for three flow rates, and model setup used highly accurate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) topography and discharge boundary conditions. The model was hydraulically calibrated using bed roughness, and performance was evaluated based on depth and inundation agreement. Model bed load performance was evaluated in terms of critical shear stress exceedance area compared to maps of observed bed mobility in a flume. Following the standard hydraulic calibration, bed load performance was tested for sensitivity to horizontal eddy viscosity parameterization and bed morphology updating. Simulations produced depth errors equal to the SfM inherent errors, inundation agreement of 77-85%, and critical shear stress exceedance in agreement with 49-68% of the observed active area. This study provides insight into the ability of physically based, two-dimensional simulations to accurately predict bed load as well as the effects of horizontal eddy viscosity and bed updating. Further, this study highlights how using high spatial and temporal data to capture the physical processes at work during flume experiments can help to improve morphological modeling.

  12. Detailed CO(J = 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2) observations toward an H II region RCW 32 in the Vela Molecular Ridge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enokiya, Rei; Sano, Hidetoshi; Hayashi, Katsuhiro; Tachihara, Kengo; Torii, Kazufumi; Yamamoto, Hiroaki; Hattori, Yusuke; Hasegawa, Yutaka; Ohama, Akio; Kimura, Kimihiro; Ogawa, Hideo; Fukui, Yasuo

    2018-05-01

    We performed CO(J = 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2) observations toward an H II region RCW 32 in the Vela Molecular Ridge. The CO gas distribution associated with the H II region was revealed for the first time at a high resolution of 22″. The results revealed three distinct velocity components which show correspondence with the optical dark lanes and/or Hα distribution. Two of the components show complementary spatial distribution which suggests collisional interaction between them at a relative velocity of ˜ 4 km s-1. Based on these results, we present a hypothesis that a cloud-cloud collision determined the cloud distribution and triggered formation of the exciting star ionizing RCW 32. The collision time scale is estimated from the cloud size and the velocity separation to be ˜2 Myr and the collision terminated ˜1 Myr ago, which is consistent with the age of the exciting star and the associated cluster. By combing the previous works on the H II regions in the Vela Molecular Ridge, we argue that the majority (at least four) of the H II regions in the Ridge were formed by triggering of cloud-cloud collision.

  13. Development of a web-based liver cancer prediction model for type II diabetes patients by using an artificial neural network.

    PubMed

    Rau, Hsiao-Hsien; Hsu, Chien-Yeh; Lin, Yu-An; Atique, Suleman; Fuad, Anis; Wei, Li-Ming; Hsu, Ming-Huei

    2016-03-01

    Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk of liver cancer, and these two diseases are among the most common and important causes of morbidity and mortality in Taiwan. To use data mining techniques to develop a model for predicting the development of liver cancer within 6 years of diagnosis with type II diabetes. Data were obtained from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan, which covers approximately 22 million people. In this study, we selected patients who were newly diagnosed with type II diabetes during the 2000-2003 periods, with no prior cancer diagnosis. We then used encrypted personal ID to perform data linkage with the cancer registry database to identify whether these patients were diagnosed with liver cancer. Finally, we identified 2060 cases and assigned them to a case group (patients diagnosed with liver cancer after diabetes) and a control group (patients with diabetes but no liver cancer). The risk factors were identified from the literature review and physicians' suggestion, then, chi-square test was conducted on each independent variable (or potential risk factor) for a comparison between patients with liver cancer and those without, those found to be significant were selected as the factors. We subsequently performed data training and testing to construct artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) prediction models. The dataset was randomly divided into 2 groups: a training group and a test group. The training group consisted of 1442 cases (70% of the entire dataset), and the prediction model was developed on the basis of the training group. The remaining 30% (618 cases) were assigned to the test group for model validation. The following 10 variables were used to develop the ANN and LR models: sex, age, alcoholic cirrhosis, nonalcoholic cirrhosis, alcoholic hepatitis, viral hepatitis, other types of chronic hepatitis, alcoholic fatty liver disease, other types of fatty liver disease, and

  14. OSSE Assessment of Ocean Observing System Enhancements to Improve Coupled Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halliwell, G. R., Jr.; Mehari, M. F.; Dong, J.; Kourafalou, V.; Atlas, R. M.; Kang, H.; Le Henaff, M.

    2016-02-01

    A new ocean OSSE system validated in the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean is used to evaluate ocean observing strategies during the 2014 hurricane season with the goal of improving coupled tropical cyclone forecasts. Enhancements to the existing operational ocean observing system are evaluated prior to two storms, Edouard and Gonzalo, where ocean measurements were obtained during field experiments supported by the 2013 Disaster Relief Appropriation Act. For Gonzalo, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate the impact of two ocean gliders deployed north and south of Puerto Rico and two Alamo profiling floats deployed in the same general region during most of the hurricane season. For Edouard, a reference OSSE is performed to evaluate impacts of the pre-storm ocean profile survey conducted by NOAA WP-3D aircraft. For both storms, additional OSSEs are then conducted to evaluate more extensive seasonal and pre-storm ocean observing strategies. These include (1) deploying a larger number of synthetic ocean gliders during the hurricane season, (2) deploying pre-storm synthetic thermistor chains or synthetic profiling floats along one or more "picket fence" lines that cross projected storm tracks, and (3) designing pre-storm airborne profiling surveys to have larger impacts than the actual pre-storm survey conducted for Edouard. Impacts are evaluated based on error reduction in ocean parameters important to SST cooling and hurricane intensity such as ocean heat content and the structure of the ocean eddy field. In all cases, ocean profiles that sample both temperature and salinity down to 1000m provide greater overall error reduction than shallower temperature profiles obtained from AXBTs and thermistor chains. Large spatial coverage with multiple instruments spanning a few degrees of longitude and latitude is necessary to sufficiently reduce ocean initialization errors over a region broad enough to significantly impact predicted surface enthalpy flux into the storm

  15. ColoLipidGene: signature of lipid metabolism-related genes to predict prognosis in stage-II colon cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Vargas, Teodoro; Moreno-Rubio, Juan; Herranz, Jesús; Cejas, Paloma; Molina, Susana; González-Vallinas, Margarita; Mendiola, Marta; Burgos, Emilio; Aguayo, Cristina; Custodio, Ana B.; Machado, Isidro; Ramos, David; Gironella, Meritxell; Espinosa-Salinas, Isabel; Ramos, Ricardo; Martín-Hernández, Roberto; Risueño, Alberto; De Las Rivas, Javier; Reglero, Guillermo; Yaya, Ricardo; Fernández-Martos, Carlos; Aparicio, Jorge; Maurel, Joan; Feliu, Jaime; de Molina, Ana Ramírez

    2015-01-01

    Lipid metabolism plays an essential role in carcinogenesis due to the requirements of tumoral cells to sustain increased structural, energetic and biosynthetic precursor demands for cell proliferation. We investigated the association between expression of lipid metabolism-related genes and clinical outcome in intermediate-stage colon cancer patients with the aim of identifying a metabolic profile associated with greater malignancy and increased risk of relapse. Expression profile of 70 lipid metabolism-related genes was determined in 77 patients with stage II colon cancer. Cox regression analyses using c-index methodology was applied to identify a metabolic-related signature associated to prognosis. The metabolic signature was further confirmed in two independent validation sets of 120 patients and additionally, in a group of 264 patients from a public database. The combined analysis of these 4 genes, ABCA1, ACSL1, AGPAT1 and SCD, constitutes a metabolic-signature (ColoLipidGene) able to accurately stratify stage II colon cancer patients with 5-fold higher risk of relapse with strong statistical power in the four independent groups of patients. The identification of a group of 4 genes that predict survival in intermediate-stage colon cancer patients allows delineation of a high-risk group that may benefit from adjuvant therapy, and avoids the toxic and unnecessary chemotherapy in patients classified as low-risk group. PMID:25749516

  16. Nucleoside-2',3'/3',5'-bis(thio)phosphate antioxidants are also capable of disassembly of amyloid beta42-Zn(ii)/Cu(ii) aggregates via Zn(ii)/Cu(ii)-chelation.

    PubMed

    Hevroni, Bosmat Levi; Major, Dan Thomas; Dixit, Mudit; Mhashal, Anil Ranu; Das, Susanta; Fischer, Bilha

    2016-05-18

    Currently, there is an urgent need for biocompatible metal-ion chelators capable of antioxidant activity and disassembly of amyloid beta (Aβ)-aggregates as potential therapeutics for Alzheimer's disease (AD). We recently demonstrated the promising antioxidant activity of adenine/guanine 2',3' or 3',5'-bis(thio)phosphate analogues, 2'-dA/G3'5'PO/S and A2'3'PO/S, and their affinity to Zn(ii)-ions. These findings encouraged us to evaluate them as agents for the dissolution of Aβ42-Zn(ii)/Cu(ii) aggregates. Specifically, we explored their ability to bind Cu(ii)/Zn(ii)-ions, the geometry and stoichiometry of these complexes, Cu(ii)/Zn(ii)-binding-sites and binding mode, and the ability of these analogues to dissolve Aβ42-Zn(ii)/Cu(ii) aggregates, as well as their effect on the secondary structure of those aggregates. Finally, we identified the most promising agents for dissolution of Aβ42-Zn(ii)/Cu(ii) aggregates. Specifically, we observed the formation of a 1 : 1 complex between 2'-dG3'5'PO and Cu(ii), involving O4 ligands. Zn(ii) was coordinated by both thiophosphate groups of 2'-dA3'5'PS and A2'3'PS involving O2S2 ligands in a 1 : 1 stoichiometry. A2'3'PS dissolves Aβ42-Zn(ii) and Aβ42-Cu(ii) aggregates as effectively as, and 2.5-fold more effectively than EDTA, respectively. Furthermore, 2'-dG3'5'PS and A2'3'PS reverted the Aβ42-M(ii) structure, back to that of the free Aβ42. Finally, cryo-TEM and TEM images confirmed the disassembly of Aβ42 and Aβ42-M(ii) aggregates by A2'3'PS. Hence, 2'-dG3'5'PS and A2'3'PS may serve as promising scaffolds for new AD therapeutics, acting as both effective antioxidants and agents for solubilization of Aβ42-Cu(ii)/Zn(ii) aggregates.

  17. Predicting the outcome of grade II glioma treated with temozolomide using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Guillevin, R; Menuel, C; Taillibert, S; Capelle, L; Costalat, R; Abud, L; Habas, C; De Marco, G; Hoang-Xuan, K; Chiras, J; Vallée, J-N

    2011-06-07

    This study was designed to evaluate proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H-MRS) for monitoring the WHO grade II glioma (low-grade glioma (LGG)) treated with temozolomide (TMZ). This prospective study included adult patients with progressive LGG that was confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Temozolomide was administered at every 28 days. Response to TMZ was evaluated by monthly MRI examinations that included MRI with volumetric calculations and (1)H-MRS for assessing Cho/Cr and Cho/NAA ratios. Univariate, multivariate and receiver-operating characteristic statistical analyses were performed on the results. A total of 21 LGGs from 31 patients were included in the study, and followed for at least n=14 months during treatment. A total of 18 (86%) patients experienced a decrease in tumour volume with a greater decrease of metabolic ratios. Subsequently, five (28%) of these tumours resumed growth despite the continuation of TMZ administration with an earlier increase of metabolic ratios of 2 months. Three (14%) patients did not show any volume or metabolic change. The evolutions of the metabolic ratios, mean(Cho/Cr)(n) and mean(Cho/NAA)(n), were significantly correlated over time (Spearman ρ=+0.95) and followed a logarithmic regression (P>0.001). The evolutions over time of metabolic ratios, mean(Cho/Cr)(n) and mean(Cho/NAA)(n), were significantly correlated with the evolution of the mean relative decrease of tumour volume, mean(ΔV(n)/V(o)), according to a linear regression (P<0.001) in the 'response/no relapse' patient group, and with the evolution of the mean tumour volume (meanV(n)), according to an exponential regression (P<0.001) in the 'response/relapse' patient group. The mean relative decrease of metabolic ratio, mean(Δ(Cho/Cr)(n)/(Cho/Cr)(o)), at n=3 months was predictive of tumour response over the 14 months of follow-up. The mean relative change between metabolic ratios, mean((Cho/NAA)(n)-(Cho/Cr)(n))/(Cho/NAA)(n), at n=4 months was

  18. NetTurnP--neural network prediction of beta-turns by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features.

    PubMed

    Petersen, Bent; Lundegaard, Claus; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl

    2010-11-30

    β-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures, and constitute on average 25% of the amino acids in proteins. The formation of β-turns plays an important role in protein folding, protein stability and molecular recognition processes. In this work we present the neural network method NetTurnP, for prediction of two-class β-turns and prediction of the individual β-turn types, by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features. It has been evaluated against a commonly used dataset BT426, and achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.50, which is the highest reported performance on a two-class prediction of β-turn and not-β-turn. Furthermore NetTurnP shows improved performance on some of the specific β-turn types. In the present work, neural network methods have been trained to predict β-turn or not and individual β-turn types from the primary amino acid sequence. The individual β-turn types I, I', II, II', VIII, VIa1, VIa2, VIba and IV have been predicted based on classifications by PROMOTIF, and the two-class prediction of β-turn or not is a superset comprised of all β-turn types. The performance is evaluated using a golden set of non-homologous sequences known as BT426. Our two-class prediction method achieves a performance of: MCC=0.50, Qtotal=82.1%, sensitivity=75.6%, PPV=68.8% and AUC=0.864. We have compared our performance to eleven other prediction methods that obtain Matthews correlation coefficients in the range of 0.17-0.47. For the type specific β-turn predictions, only type I and II can be predicted with reasonable Matthews correlation coefficients, where we obtain performance values of 0.36 and 0.31, respectively. The NetTurnP method has been implemented as a webserver, which is freely available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetTurnP/. NetTurnP is the only available webserver that allows submission of multiple sequences.

  19. Area computer model for transportation noise prediction : phase II--improved noise prediction methods.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1975-01-01

    This report recommended that NOISE 3 initially use the same basic logic as the MICNOISE program for highway noise prediction except that additional options be made available, such as flexibility in specifying vehicle noise sources. A choice of six no...

  20. VizieR Online Data Catalog: SNe type II from CSP-I, SDSS-II, and SNLS (de Jaeger+, 2017)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Jaeger, T.; Gonzalez-Gaitan, S.; Hamuy, M.; Galbany, L.; Anderson, J. P.; Phillips, M. M.; Stritzinger, M. D.; Carlberg, R. G.; Sullivan, M.; Gutierrez, C. P.; Hook, I. M.; Howell, D. A.; Hsiao, E. Y.; Kuncarayakti, H.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Folatelli, G.; Pritchet, C.; Basa, S.

    2017-10-01

    The CSP-I (Carnegie Supernova Project-I) had guaranteed access to ~300 nights per year between 2004 and 2009 on the Swope 1m and du Pont 2.5m telescopes at the Las Campanas Observatory (LCO). This observation time allowed the CSP-I to obtain optical-band light curves for 67 SNe II. From the CSP-I sample, we remove six outliers. The SDSS-II SN Survey operated for three years, from 2005 September to 2007 November. Using the 2.5m telescope at the Apache Point Observatory in New Mexico. This survey observed about 80 spectroscopically confirmed core-collapse SNe but the main driver of this project was the study of SNe Ia, involving the acquisition of only one or two spectra per SNe II. The total SDSS-II SN sample is composed of 16 spectroscopically confirmed SNe II. The SNLS (Supernova Legacy Survey) was designed to discover SNe and to obtain photometric follow-up using the MegaCam imager on the 3.6m Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. The observation strategy consisted of obtaining images of the same field every four nights over five years (between 2003 and 2008); thus, in total more than 470 nights were allocated to this project. The total SNLS sample is composed of 28 SNeII. See section 2 for further explanations on the data sample. (1 data file).