Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle
Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...
2017-06-08
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan
2017-04-01
Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have
Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Tanoue, Masahiro
2016-01-01
Spatial distribution of annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation (δ(18)O, δ(2)H) was observed at 56 sites across Japan throughout 2013. Annual mean δ(18)O values showed a strong latitude effect, from -12.4 ‰ in the north to -5.1 ‰ in the south. Annual mean d-excess values ranged from 8 to 21 ‰, and values on the Sea of Japan side in Northern and Eastern Japan were relatively higher than those on the Pacific Ocean side. The local meteoric water line (LMWL) and isotope effects were based on the annual mean values from all sites across Japan as divided into distinct regions: the Sea of Japan side to the Pacific Ocean side and Northeastern to Southwestern Japan. Slopes and intercepts of LMWL ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and 9.8 to 13.0, respectively. Slopes for latitude, altitude, and temperature effects ranged from -0.27 to -0.48 ‰/°N, -0.0034 to -0.0053 ‰/m, and 0.36 to 0.46 ‰/°C, respectively, with statistically significance at the 99 % level. However, there was no precipitation amount effect. From the result of a multiple regression analysis, the empirical formula of annual mean δ(18)O in precipitation from latitude and altitude for all sites across Japan was determined to be δ(18) O = -0.348 (LAT) - 0.00307 (ALT) + 4.29 (R(2) = 0.59). Slopes for latitude and altitude ranged from - 0.28 to - 0.51, and - 0.0019 to - 0.0045, respectively. Even though site distribution was uneven, these equations are the first trial estimation for annual mean stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan. Further research performed on the monthly basis is required to elucidate factors controlling the spatiotemporal variability of stable isotopes in precipitation across Japan.
Representativeness of four precipitation observational networks of China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Yuyu; Ren, Guoyu
2012-08-01
Four precipitation observational networks with varied station densities are maintained in China. They are: the Global Climate Observation System (GCOS) Surface Network (GSN), the national Reference Climate Network (RCN), the national Basic Meteorological Network (BMN), and the national Ordinary Meteorological Network (OMN). The GSN, RCN, BMN, and the merged network of RCN and BMN (R&B) have been widely used in climatology and climate change studies. In this paper, the impact of the usage of different networks on the precipitation climatology of China is evaluated by using the merged dataset of All Station Network (ASN) as a benchmark. The results show that all networks can capture the main features of the country average precipitation and its changing trends. The differences of average annual precipitation of the various networks from that of the ASN are less than 50 mm (⩽ 10%). All networks can successfully detect the rising trend of the average annual precipitation during 1961-2009, with the R&B exhibiting the best representativeness (only 2.90% relative difference) and the GSN the poorest (39.77%). As to the change trends of country average monthly precipitation, the networks can be ranked in descending order as R&B (1.27%), RCN (2.35%), BMN (4.17%), and GSN (7.46%), and larger relative differences appear from August to November. The networks produce quite consistent spatial patterns of annual precipitation change trends, and all show an increasing trend of precipitation in Northwest and Southeast China, and a decreasing trend in North China, Northeast China, and parts of central China. However, the representativeness of the BMN and R&B are better in annual and seasonal precipitation trends, in spite of the fact that they are still far from satisfactory. The relative differences of trends in some months and regions even reach more than 50%. The results also show that the representativeness of the RCN for country average precipitation is higher than that of the
The full annual carbon balance of Eurasian boreal forests is highly sensitive to precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Öquist, Mats; Bishop, Kevin; Grelle, Achim; Klemedtsson, Leif; Köhler, Stephan; Laudon, Hjalmar; Lindroth, Anders; Ottosson Löfvenius, Mikaell; Wallin, Marcus; Nilsson, Mats
2013-04-01
Boreal forest biomes are identified as one of the major sinks for anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 and are also predicted to be particularly sensitive to climate change. Recent advances in understanding the carbon balance of these biomes stems mainly from eddy-covariance measurements of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). However, NEE includes only the vertical CO2 exchange driven by photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration. A full net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) also requires inclusion of lateral carbon export (LCE) through catchment discharge. Currently LCE is often regarded as negligible for the NECB of boreal forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere, commonly corresponding to ~5% of annual NEE. Here we use long term (13 year) data showing that annual LCE and NEE are strongly correlated (p=0.003); years with low C sequestration by the forest coincide with years when lateral C loss is high. The fraction of NEE lost annually through LCE varied markedly from <3% to ca. 25%. Deviation in annual precipitation from the 28-year average (1980-2008) explained 90% of the variation observed in the fraction of C lost annually by LCE. The relationship suggests that an increase in annual precipitation of 10-20% in the boreal region would approximately double the fraction of NEE lost annually from the terrestrial system to surface waters. The correlation between NEE and LCE arises because the annual precipitation is correlated with both NEE (p<0.004) and LCE (p<0.001). Both these strong correlations contribute to an overall correlation between annual NECB and precipitation. The likely mechanism behind decreased NEE in response to increasing precipitation is a reduction in incoming solar radiation caused by clouds. The dual effect of precipitation implies that both the observed and the predicted increases in annual precipitation at high latitudes may reduce NECB in boreal forest ecosystems. Based on regional scaling of hydrological discharge and observed spatio
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sirota, Ido; enzel, Yehouda; Lensky, Nadav G.
2017-04-01
Layered halite sequences deposited in deep basins throughout the geological record. However, analogues of such sequences are commonly studied in sallow environments. Here we study active precipitation of halite layers from the only modern analog for deep, halite-precipitating basin, the hypersaline Dead Sea. In situ observations in the Dead Sea link seasonal thermohaline stratification, halite saturation, and the characteristics of the actively forming halite layers. The spatiotemporal evolution of halite precipitation in the Dead Sea was characterized by means of monthly observations of the i) lake thermohaline stratification (temperature, salinity, and density), ii) degree of halite saturation, and iii) textural evolution of the active halite deposits. We present the observed relationships between textural characteristics of layered halite deposits (i.e. grain size, consolidation, and roughness) and the degree of saturation, which in turn reflected the limnology and hydro-climatology. The lakefloor is divided into two principle environments: A deep, hypolimnetic and a shallow, epilimnetic lakefloor. In the deeper hypolimnetic lakefloor halite continuously precipitates with seasonal variations: (a) during summer, consolidated coarse halite crystals form rough surfaces under slight super-saturation. (b) During winter, unconsolidated, fine halite crystals form smooth seafloor deposits under high supersaturation. The observations also emphasize the thought regarding seasonal alternation of halite crystallization mechanism. The shallow epilimnetic lake floor is highly influenced by the seasonal temperature variations, and by intensive summer dissolution of part of the previous year's halite deposit which results in thin sequences with annual unconformities. This emphasizes the control of temperature seasonality on the precipitated halite layers characteristics. In addition, precipitation of halite in the hypolimnetic floor, on the expense of the dissolution of the
Mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff in Arkansas, 1951-2011
Pugh, Aaron L.; Westerman, Drew A.
2014-01-01
This report describes long-term annual, seasonal, and monthly means for precipitation and runoff in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011. Precipitation means were estimated using data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model database; while total runoff, groundwater runoff, and surface runoff means were estimated using data from 123 active and inactive U.S. Geological Survey continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations located in Arkansas and surrounding States. Annual precipitation in Arkansas for the period from 1951 through 2011 had a mean of 49.8 inches. Of the six physiographic sections in Arkansas, the Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual precipitation at 53.0 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual precipitation at 45.5 inches. The mean annual total runoff for Arkansas was 17.8 inches. The Ouachita Mountains had the largest mean annual total runoff at 20.4 inches, while the Springfield-Salem plateaus had the smallest mean annual total runoff at 15.0 inches. Runoff is diminished during the dry season, which is attributed to increased losses from evapotranspiration, consumptive uses including irrigation, and increased withdrawals for public and private water supplies. The decline in runoff during the dry season is observed across the State in all physiographic sections. Spatial results for precipitation and runoff are presented in a series of maps that are available for download from the publication Web page in georeferenced raster formats.
Variability of Radiosonde-Observed Precipitable Water in the Baltic Region
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jakobson, Erko; Ohvril, H.; Okulov, O.
The total mass of columnar water vapor (precipitable water, W) is an important parameter of atmospheric thermodynamic and radiative models. In this work radiosonde observations from 17 aerological stations in the Baltic region during 14 years, 1989?2002, were used to examine the variability of precipitable water. A table of monthly and annual means of W for the stations is given. Seasonal and annual means of W are expressed as linear functions of geographical latitude. Linear formulas are also derived for parameterization of precipitable water as function of surface water vapor pressure at each station.
Exploring the correlation between annual precipitation and potential evaporation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, X.; Buchberger, S. G.
2017-12-01
The interdependence between precipitation and potential evaporation is closely related to the classic Budyko framework. In this study, a systematic investigation of the correlation between precipitation and potential evaporation at the annual time step is conducted at both point scale and watershed scale. The point scale precipitation and potential evaporation data over the period of 1984-2015 are collected from 259 weather stations across the United States. The watershed scale precipitation data of 203 watersheds across the United States are obtained from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) dataset from 1983 to 2002; and potential evaporation data of these 203 watersheds in the same period are obtained from a remote-sensing algorithm. The results show that majority of the weather stations (77%) and watersheds (79%) exhibit a statistically significant negative correlation between annual precipitation and annual potential evaporation. The aggregated data cloud of precipitation versus potential evaporation follows a curve based on the combination of the Budyko-type equation and Bouchet's complementary relationship. Our result suggests that annual precipitation and potential evaporation are not independent when both Budyko's hypothesis and Bouchet's hypothesis are valid. Furthermore, we find that the wet surface evaporation, which is controlled primarily by short wave radiation as defined in Bouchet's hypothesis, exhibits less dependence on precipitation than the potential evaporation. As a result, we suggest that wet surface evaporation is a better representation of energy supply than potential evaporation in the Budyko framework.
Kriging analysis of mean annual precipitation, Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming
Karlinger, M.R.; Skrivan, James A.
1981-01-01
Kriging is a statistical estimation technique for regionalized variables which exhibit an autocorrelation structure. Such structure can be described by a semi-variogram of the observed data. The kriging estimate at any point is a weighted average of the data, where the weights are determined using the semi-variogram and an assumed drift, or lack of drift, in the data. Block, or areal, estimates can also be calculated. The kriging algorithm, based on unbiased and minimum-variance estimates, involves a linear system of equations to calculate the weights. Kriging variances can then be used to give confidence intervals of the resulting estimates. Mean annual precipitation in the Powder River basin, Montana and Wyoming, is an important variable when considering restoration of coal-strip-mining lands of the region. Two kriging analyses involving data at 60 stations were made--one assuming no drift in precipitation, and one a partial quadratic drift simulating orographic effects. Contour maps of estimates of mean annual precipitation were similar for both analyses, as were the corresponding contours of kriging variances. Block estimates of mean annual precipitation were made for two subbasins. Runoff estimates were 1-2 percent of the kriged block estimates. (USGS)
Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.
2017-10-01
The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.
Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach
Asquith, W.H.; Famiglietti, J.S.
2000-01-01
The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed 'annual-maxima centered,' specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are
Precipitation areal-reduction factor estimation using an annual-maxima centered approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asquith, W. H.; Famiglietti, J. S.
2000-04-01
The adjustment of precipitation depth of a point storm to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed is important for characterizing rainfall-runoff relations and for cost-effective designs of hydraulic structures when design storms are considered. A design storm is the precipitation point depth having a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). Effective depths are often computed by multiplying point depths by areal-reduction factors (ARF). ARF range from 0 to 1, vary according to storm characteristics, such as recurrence interval; and are a function of watershed characteristics, such as watershed size, shape, and geographic location. This paper presents a new approach for estimating ARF and includes applications for the 1-day design storm in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The approach, termed "annual-maxima centered," specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual-precipitation maxima, which is a feature not seen in other approaches. The approach does not require the prior spatial averaging of precipitation, explicit determination of spatial correlation coefficients, nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. The annual-maxima centered approach was designed to exploit the wide availability of dense precipitation gauge data in many regions of the world. The approach produces ARF that decrease more rapidly than those from TP-29. Furthermore, the ARF from the approach decay rapidly with increasing recurrence interval of the annual-precipitation maxima.
Regional analysis of annual precipitation maxima in Montana
Parrett, Charles
1997-01-01
Dimensionless precipitation-frequency curves for estimating precipitation depths having large recurrence intervals were developed for 2-, 6-, and 24-hour storm durations for three homogeneous regions in Montana. Within each homogeneous region, at-site annual precipitation maxima were made dimensionless by dividing by the at-site mean and grouped so that a single frequency curve would be applicable for each duration. L-moment statistics were used to help define the homogeneous regions and to develop the dimensionless precipitation- frequency curves. Data from 459 precipitation stations were used after application of statistical tests to ensure that the data were not serially correlated and were stationary over the general period of data collection (1900-92). The data were found to have a small, but significant, degree of interstation correlation. The GEV distribution was used to construct dimensionless frequency curves of annual precipitation maxima for each duration within each region. Each dimensionless frequency curve was considered to be reliable for recurrence intervals up to the effective record length. Because of significant, though small, interstation correlation in all regions for all durations, and because the selected regions exhibited some heterogeneity, the effective record length was considered to be less than the total number of station-years of data. The effective record length for each duration in each region was estimated using a graphical method and found to range from 500 years for 6-hour duration data in Region 2 to 5,100 years for 24-hour duration data in Region 3.
Status of High Latitude Precipitation Estimates from Observations and Reanalyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Behrangi, Ali; Christensen, Matthew; Richardson, Mark; Lebsock, Matthew; Stephens, Graeme; Huffman, George J.; Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert F.; Gardner, Alex; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.;
2016-01-01
An intercomparison of high-latitude precipitation characteristics from observation-based and reanalysis products is performed. In particular, the precipitation products from CloudSat provide an independent assessment to other widely used products, these being the observationally based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) products and the ERA-Interim, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-DOE R2) reanalyses. Seasonal and annual total precipitation in both hemispheres poleward of 55 latitude are considered in all products, and CloudSat is used to assess intensity and frequency of precipitation occurrence by phase, defined as rain, snow, or mixed phase. Furthermore, an independent estimate of snow accumulation during the cold season was calculated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. The intercomparison is performed for the 20072010 period when CloudSat was fully operational. It is found that ERA-Interim and MERRA are broadly similar, agreeing more closely with CloudSat over oceans. ERA-Interim also agrees well with CloudSat estimates of snowfall over Antarctica where total snowfall from GPCP and CloudSat is almost identical. A number of disagreements on regional or seasonal scales are identified: CMAP reports much lower ocean precipitation relative to other products, NCEP-DOE R2 reports much higher summer precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land, GPCP reports much higher snowfall over Eurasia, and CloudSat overestimates precipitation over Greenland, likely due to mischaracterization of rain and mixed-phase precipitation. These outliers are likely unrealistic for these specific regions and time periods. These estimates from observations and reanalyses provide useful insights for diagnostic assessment of
Precipitation variability inferred from the annual growth and isotopic composition of tropical trees
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Chambers, J. Q.; Villalba, R.
2005-12-01
Here we demonstrate that annual growth and isotopic ratios in tropical trees are responsive to seasonal and annual precipitation variability. We identify several regions of tropical South America characterized by significant relationships between oxygen isotopic ratios (δ 18O) in precipitation and precipitation amount (r = -0.82). Many of these regions are also sensitive to inter-annual variability in the South American Monsoon modulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effectiveness of δ 18O and annual growth of tropical trees as a precipitation proxy is validated by high-resolution sampling of a Tachigali vermelho tree growing near Manaus, Brazil (3.1° S, 60.0° S). Growth in Tachigali spp. was highly correlated with both precipitation and cellulose δ 18O (r = 0.60) and precipitation amount was significantly correlated with δ 18O at a lag of approximately one month (r = 0.56). We also report a multi-proxy record spanning 180 years from Cedrela odorata growing in the Peruvian Amazon near Puerto Maldonado (12.6° S, 69.2° W) revealing a significant relationship between cellulose and monsoon precipitation over the region (r = -0.33). A 150-year record obtained from Polylepis tarapacana growing at Volcan Granada in Northern Argentina (22.0° S, 66.0° W) is also reported with a significant relationship between local monsoon precipitation and a regionally derived ring width index (r = 0.38). Although no significant relationship was revealed between cellulose δ 18O and precipitation in this taxa at this location, separate radii within the same tree revealed a significantly coherent δ 18O signal (r = 0.38). We compared our proxy chronologies with monsoon precipitation reanalysis data for tropical South America, which revealed key features of the South American Monsoon and their sensitivity to ENSO variability.
Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.
2014-02-01
The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison
2016-01-01
This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Jackie; Liu, Zhong
2015-01-01
Precipitation is a vital aspect of our lives droughts, floods and other related disasters that involve precipitation can cause costly damage in the economic system and general society. Purpose of this project is to determine what, if any effect do hurricanes have on annual precipitation in Maryland Research will be conducted on Marylands terrain, climatology, annual precipitation, and precipitation contributed from hurricanes Possible connections to climate change
Atlas of depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas
Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.
2004-01-01
Ninety-six maps depicting the spatial variation of the depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas are presented. The recurrence intervals represented are 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The storm durations represented are 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 hours; and 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 days. The maps were derived using geographically referenced parameter maps of probability distributions used in previously published research by the U.S. Geological Survey to model the magnitude and frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas. The maps in this report apply that research and update depth-duration frequency of precipitation maps available in earlier studies done by the National Weather Service.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sippel, Sebastian; Zscheischler, Jakob; Heimann, Martin; Lange, Holger; Mahecha, Miguel D.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Reichstein, Markus
2017-01-01
Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40 %, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a dry region of the globe
. For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6 % decade-1 to +0.2 to +0.9 % decade-1 (period changes for 1981-2010 averages relative to 1951-1980 are reduced to -1.32 to +0.97 % as opposed to +4.85 % in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1 % decade-1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of
Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...
2016-02-03
This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.
2015-04-01
We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor data sets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real-time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation data sets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-D) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (±6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real-time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near-real-time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the western USA for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in. day-1) over the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and a contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge in retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.
Observation-Corrected Precipitation Estimates in GEOS-5
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Qing
2014-01-01
Several GEOS-5 applications, including the GEOS-5 seasonal forecasting system and the MERRA-Land data product, rely on global precipitation data that have been corrected with satellite and or gauge-based precipitation observations. This document describes the methodology used to generate the corrected precipitation estimates and their use in GEOS-5 applications. The corrected precipitation estimates are derived by disaggregating publicly available, observationally based, global precipitation products from daily or pentad totals to hourly accumulations using background precipitation estimates from the GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system. Depending on the specific combination of the observational precipitation product and the GEOS-5 background estimates, the observational product may also be downscaled in space. The resulting corrected precipitation data product is at the finer temporal and spatial resolution of the GEOS-5 background and matches the observed precipitation at the coarser scale of the observational product, separately for each day (or pentad) and each grid cell.
Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raja, Nussaïbah B.; Aydin, Olgu
2018-04-01
This study researched the precipitation variability across 53 meteorological stations in Mauritius and different subregions of the island, over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). Time series was investigated for each 5-year interval and also for the whole study period. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho statistical tests were used to detect trends in annual precipitation. A mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends was highlighted for the 5-year interval analysis. The statistical tests nevertheless agreed on the overall trend for Mauritius and the subregions. Most regions showed a decrease in precipitation during the period 1996-2000. This is attributed to the 1998-2000 drought period which was brought about by a moderate La Niña event. In general, an increase in precipitation levels was observed across the country during the study period. This increase is the result of an increase in extreme precipitation events in the region. On the other hand, two subregions, both located in the highlands, experienced a decline in precipitation levels. Since most of the reservoirs in Mauritius are located in these two subregions, this implies serious consequences for water availability in the country if existing storage capacities are kept.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bovolo, C. Isabella; Pereira, Ryan; Parkin, Geoff; Wagner, Thomas
2010-05-01
annual average spatial correlations are examined between modelled ERA40 and observed time series comparing the seasonal cycles and the yearly, monthly and monthly anomaly time series. This is to evaluate if the reanalysis data correctly reproduces the areally averaged observed mean annual precipitation, interannual variability and seasonal precipitation cycle over the region. Results show that reanalysis precipitation for the region compares favourably with areally averaged observations where available, although the model underestimates precipitation in some zones of higher elevation. Also ERA40 data is slightly positively biased along the coast and negatively biased inland. Comparisons between observed and modelled data show that although correlations of annual time series are low (<0.6), correlations of monthly time series reach 0.8 demonstrating that the model captures much of the seasonal variation in precipitation. However correlations between monthly precipitation anomalies, where the averaged seasonal cycle has been removed from the comparison, are lower (< 0.6). As precipitation observations are not assimilated into the reanalysis these results provide a good validation of model performance. The seasonal cycle of precipitation is found to be highly variable across the region. Two wet-seasons (June and December) occur in northern Guyana which relate to the twice yearly passage of the inter-tropical convergence zone whereas a single wet season (April-August) occurs in the savannah zone, which stretches from Venezuela through the southern third of Guyana. The climate transition zone lies slightly north of the distinctive forest-savannah boundary which suggests that the boundary may be highly sensitive to future alterations in climate, such as those due to climate change or deforestation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ricko, Martina; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.
2016-01-01
Climatology and variations of recent mean and intense precipitation over a near-global (50 deg. S 50 deg. N) domain on a monthly and annual time scale are analyzed. Data used to derive daily precipitation to examine the effects of spatial and temporal coverage of intense precipitation are from the current Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 version 7 precipitation product, with high spatial and temporal resolution during 1998 - 2013. Intense precipitation is defined by several different parameters, such as a 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation, a mean precipitation that exceeds that percentile, or a fixed threshold of daily precipitation value [e.g., 25 and 50 mm day(exp -1)]. All parameters are used to identify the main characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of intense precipitation. High correlations between examined parameters are observed, especially between climatological monthly mean precipitation and intense precipitation, over both tropical land and ocean. Among the various parameters examined, the one best characterizing intense rainfall is a fraction of daily precipitation Great than or equal to 25 mm day(exp. -1), defined as a ratio between the intense precipitation above the used threshold and mean precipitation. Regions that experience an increase in mean precipitation likely experience a similar increase in intense precipitation, especially during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Improved knowledge of this intense precipitation regime and its strong connection to mean precipitation given by the fraction parameter can be used for monitoring of intense rainfall and its intensity on a global to regional scale.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.
2017-12-01
In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abahous, H.; Ronchail, J.; Sifeddine, A.; Kenny, L.; Bouchaou, L.
2017-11-01
In the context of an arid area such as Souss Massa Region, the availability of time series analysis of observed local data is vital to better characterize the regional rainfall configuration. In this paper, dataset of monthly precipitation collected from different local meteorological stations during 1932-2010, are quality controlled and analyzed to detect trend and change points. The temporal distribution of outliers shows an annual cycle and a decrease of their number since the 1980s. The results of the standard normal homogeneity test, penalized maximal t test, and Mann-Whitney-Pettit test show that 42% of the series are homogeneous. The analysis of annual precipitation in the region of Souss Massa during 1932-2010 shows wet conditions with a maximum between 1963 and 1965 followed by a decrease since 1973. The latter is identified as a statistically significant regional change point in Western High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountains highlighting a decline in long-term average precipitation.
Atlas of depth-duration frequency of precipitation annual maxima for Texas
Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.
2004-01-01
The objective of this Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) cooperatively funded project was to develop a simple-to-use atlas of precipitation depths in Texas for selected storm durations and frequencies on the basis of the research results and unpublished digital archives of Asquith (1998). The selected storm durations are 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, and 12 hours; and 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 days. The selected storm frequencies or annual recurrence intervals are 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. Depth-duration frequency (DDF) of annual precipitation maxima is important for cost-effective, risk-mitigated hydrologic design. DDF values are in common and wide-spread use by public and private entities throughout Texas.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zittis, G.
2017-11-01
The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier
Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation over Central Asia by CMIP5 Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, X.; Zhao, Y.
2017-12-01
Future changes in the annual cycle of the precipitation in central Asia (CA) were estimated based on the historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observations, the historical (1979-1999) experiments showed that most models can capture the migration of rainfall centers, but remarkable discrepancies exist in the location and intensity of rainfall centers between simulations and observations. Considering the skill scores of precipitation and pattern correlations of circulations, which are closely related to the precipitation for each month, for the 25 models, the four best models (e.g., CanESM2, CMCC-CMS, MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR) with relatively good performance were selected. The four models' ensemble mean indicated that the migration and location of the precipitation centers were better reproduced, except the intensity of the centers was overestimated, compared with the result that only considered precipitation. Based on the four best models' ensemble mean under RCP8.5 scenarios, precipitation was projected to increase dramatically over most of the CA region in the boreal cold seasons (November, December, January, February, March, April and May) with the maximum in December in the end of twenty-first century (2079-2099), and several positive centers were located in the Pamirs Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains. By contrast, the precipitation changes were weak in the boreal warm seasons (June, July, August, September and October), with a wet center located in the northern Himalayas. Furthermore, there remain some uncertainties in the projected precipitation regions and periods obtained by comparing models' ensemble results of this paper and the results of previous studies. These uncertainties should be investigated in future work.
Synoptic Drivers of Precipitation in the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cohen, L.; Hudson, S.; Graham, R.; Renwick, J. A.
2017-12-01
Precipitation in the Arctic has been shown to be increasing in recent decades, from both observational and modelling studies, with largest trends seen in autumn and winter. This trend is attributed to a combination of the warming atmosphere and reduced sea ice extent. The seasonality of precipitation in the Arctic is important as it largely determines whether the precipitation falls as snow or rain. This study assesses the spatial and temporal variability of the synoptic drivers of precipitation in the Atlantic (European) sector of the Arctic. This region of the Arctic is of particular interest as it has the largest inter-annual variability in sea ice extent and is the primary pathway for moisture transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. This study uses the ECMWF ERA-I reanalysis total precipitation to compare to long-term precipitation observations from Ny Ålesund, Svalbard to show that the reanalysis captures the synoptic variability of precipitation well and that most precipitation in this region is synoptically driven. The annual variability of precipitation in the Atlantic Arctic shows strong regionality. In the Svalbard and Barents Sea region, most of the annual total precipitation occurs during autumn and winter (Oct-Mar) (>60% of annual total), while the high-Arctic (> 80N) and Kara Sea receives most of the annual precipitation ( 60% of annual total) during summer (July-Sept). Using a synoptic classification developed for this region, this study shows that winter precipitation is driven by winter cyclone occurrence, with strong correlations to the AO and NAO indices. High precipitation over Svalbard is also strongly correlated with the Scandinavian blocking pattern, which produces a southerly flow in the Greenland Sea/Svalbard area. An increasing occurrence of these synoptic patterns are seen for winter months (Nov and Jan), which may explain much of the observed winter increase in precipitation.
Variability of precipitation in Poland under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szwed, Małgorzata
2018-02-01
The surface warming has been widespread over the entire globe. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Global temperature increases are accompanied by changes in other climatic variables. Climate change in Poland manifests itself also as change in annual sums of precipitation. They have been slightly growing but, what is more important, seasonal and monthly distributions of precipitation have been also changing. The most visible increases have been observed during colder half-year, especially in March. A decreasing contribution of summer precipitation total (June-August) to the annual total is observed. Climate projections for Poland predict further warming and continuation of already observed changes in the quantity of precipitation as well as its spatial and seasonal distribution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chandniha, Surendra Kumar; Meshram, Sarita Gajbhiye; Adamowski, Jan Franklin; Meshram, Chandrashekhar
2017-10-01
Jharkhand is one of the eastern states of India which has an agriculture-based economy. Uncertain and erratic distribution of precipitation as well as a lack of state water resources planning is the major limitation to crop growth in the region. In this study, the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the state was examined using a monthly precipitation time series of 111 years (1901-2011) from 18 meteorological stations. Autocorrelation and Mann-Kendall/modified Mann-Kendall tests were utilized to detect possible trends, and the Theil and Sen slope estimator test was used to determine the magnitude of change over the entire time series. The most probable change year (change point) was detected using the Pettitt-Mann-Whitney test, and the entire time series was sub-divided into two parts: before and after the change point. Arc-Map 9.3 software was utilized to assess the spatial patterns of the trends over the entire state. Annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend in 5 out of 18 stations during the whole period. For annual, monsoon and winter periods of precipitation, the slope test indicated a decreasing trend for all stations during 1901-2011. The highest variability was observed in post-monsoon precipitation (77.87 %) and the lowest variability was observed in the annual series (15.76 %) over the 111 years. An increasing trend in precipitation in the state was found during the period 1901-1949, which was reversed during the subsequent period (1950-2011).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gimmi, U.; Luterbacher, J.; Pfister, C.; Wanner, H.
2007-01-01
In contrast to barometric and thermometric records, early instrumental precipitation series are quite rare. Based on systematic descriptive daily records, a quantitative monthly precipitation series for Bern (Switzerland) was reconstructed back to the year 1760 (reconstruction based on documentary evidence). Since every observer had his own personal style to fill out his diary, the main focus was to avoid observer-specific bias in the reconstruction. An independent statistical monthly precipitation reconstruction was performed using instrumental data from European sites. Over most periods the reconstruction based on documentary evidence lies inside the 2 standard errors of the statistical estimates. The comparison between these two approaches enables an independent verification and a reliable error estimate. The analysis points to below normal rainfall totals in all seasons during the late 18th century and in the 1820s and 1830s. Increased precipitation occurred in the early 1850s and the late 1870s, particularly from spring to autumn. The annual precipitation totals generally tend to be higher in the 20th century than in the late 18th and 19th century. Precipitation changes are discussed in the context of socioeconomic impacts and Alpine glacier dynamics. The conceptual design of the reconstruction procedure is aimed at application for similar descriptive precipitation series, which are known to be abundant from the mid-18th century in Europe and the U.S.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wilks, Daniel S.
1993-10-01
Performance of 8 three-parameter probability distributions for representing annual extreme and partial duration precipitation data at stations in the northeastern and southeastern United States is investigated. Particular attention is paid to fidelity on the right tail, through use of a bootstrap procedure simulating extrapolation on the right tail beyond the data. It is found that the beta-κ distribution best describes the extreme right tail of annual extreme series, and the beta-P distribution is best for the partial duration data. The conventionally employed two-parameter Gumbel distribution is found to substantially underestimate probabilities associated with the larger precipitation amounts for both annual extreme and partial duration data. Fitting the distributions using left-censored data did not result in improved fits to the right tail.
Rea, A.H.; Tortorelli, R.L.
1997-01-01
This digital report contains two digital-map grids of data that were used to develop peak-flow regression equations in Tortorelli, 1997, 'Techniques for estimating peak-streamflow frequency for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 97-4202. One data set is a grid of mean annual precipitation, in inches, based on the period 1961-90, for Oklahoma. The data set was derived from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) mean annual precipitation grid for the United States, developed by Daly, Neilson, and Phillips (1994, 'A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain:' Journal of Applied Meteorology, v. 33, no. 2, p. 140-158). The second data set is a grid of generalized skew coefficients of logarithms of annual maximum streamflow for Oklahoma streams less than or equal to 2,510 square miles in drainage area. This grid of skew coefficients is taken from figure 11 of Tortorelli and Bergman, 1985, 'Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma,' U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 84-4358. To save disk space, the skew coefficient values have been multiplied by 100 and rounded to integers with two significant digits. The data sets are provided in an ASCII grid format.
Precipitation information from GNSS Polarimetric Radio Occultation observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Padulles, R.; Cardellach, E.; Turk, J.; Tomás, S.; Ao, C. O.; de la Torre-Juárez, M.
2017-12-01
There is currently a gap in satellite observations of the moisture structure during heavy precipitation conditions, since infrared and microwave sounders cannot sense water vapor structure near the surface in the presence of intense precipitation. Conversely, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultations (RO) can profile the moisture structure with high precision and vertical resolution, but cannot directly indicate the presence of precipitation. Polarimetric RO (PRO) measurements have been proposed as a method to characterize heavy rain in GNSS RO, by measuring the polarimetric differential phase delay induced by large size hydrometeors. The PRO concept will be tested from space for the first time on board the Spanish PAZ satellite, planned for launch by the end of 2017. Therefore, for the first time ever, GNSS RO measurements will be taken at two polarizations, to exploit the potential capabilities of polarimetric RO for detecting and quantifying heavy precipitation events. If the concept is proved, PAZ will mean a new application of the GNSS Radio-Occultation observations, by providing coincident thermodynamic and precipitation information with high vertical resolution within regions with thick clouds. Before the launch, a series of studies have been performed in order to assess the retrieval of precipitation information from the polarimetric observations. These studies have been based on coincident observations from the COSMIC / FORMOSAT-3 RO satellite constellation, and TRMM and GPM missions. This massive collocation exercise allowed us to build a series of Look Up Tables that relate probabilistically the precipitation intensity to the polarimetric observables. Such studies needed a previous characterization of the polarimetric observable, since it contains contributions from the ionosphere and the emitting and receiving systems. For this purpose, complete end-to-end simulations have been performed, where information from the ionospheric state
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; O'Connell, Patrick Enda; Tzouka, Katerina; Iliopoulou, Theano
2018-01-01
The long-range dependence (LRD) is considered an inherent property of geophysical processes, whose presence increases uncertainty. Here we examine the spatial behaviour of LRD in precipitation by regressing the Hurst parameter estimate of mean annual precipitation instrumental data which span from 1916-2015 and cover a big area of the earth's surface on location characteristics of the instrumental data stations. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LRD assumption (MKt-LRD) to reassess the significance of observed trends. To summarize the results, the LRD is spatially clustered, it seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LRD properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. The application of the MKt-LRD suggests that no significant monotonic trend appears in global precipitation, excluding the climate type D (snow) regions in which positive significant trends appear.
An Evaluation of CMIP5 Precipitation Variability for China Relative to Observations and CMIP3
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frauenfeld, O. W.; Chen, L.
2013-12-01
Precipitation represents an important link between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere and is thus a key component of the climate system. As indicated by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface air temperatures increased by 0.74°C during the 20th century, with further warming of 0.2°C/decade projected by the 2030s. Projected changes in precipitation, however, are much more variable, and exhibit more complex temporal and spatial patterns. This presentation focuses on precipitation variability based on 20 general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the fifth coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). Specifically, we focus on China and provide a comprehensive evaluation of the CMIP5 models compared to historical 20th century precipitation variability from two observational precipitation products: the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time series (TS) dataset version 3.10, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) version 6. We also reassess the performance of the third CMIP (CMIP3) to quantify potential improvements in CMIP5 over the previous generation of GCMs. Finally, we provide 21st century precipitation projections for China based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6. These future precipitation projections are presented in light of the observed 20th century biases in the models. We find that CMIP5 models are able to better reproduce the general spatial pattern of observed 20th century precipitation than CMIP3. However, for China as a whole, the annual precipitation magnitude is overestimated in CMIP5, more so than in CMIP3. This smaller overestimation in CMIP3 was primarily driven by a large underestimation of summer precipitation. Spatially, overestimated precipitation magnitudes are evident for most regions of China, especially along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Over southeastern China
Benchmarking a geostatistical procedure for the homogenisation of annual precipitation series
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar; Costa, Ana Cristina
2014-05-01
The European project COST Action ES0601, Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME), has brought to attention the importance of establishing reliable homogenisation methods for climate data. In order to achieve that, a benchmark data set, containing monthly and daily temperature and precipitation data, was created to be used as a comparison basis for the effectiveness of those methods. Several contributions were submitted and evaluated by a number of performance metrics, validating the results against realistic inhomogeneous data. HOME also led to the development of new homogenisation software packages, which included feedback and lessons learned during the project. Preliminary studies have suggested a geostatistical stochastic approach, which uses Direct Sequential Simulation (DSS), as a promising methodology for the homogenisation of precipitation data series. Based on the spatial and temporal correlation between the neighbouring stations, DSS calculates local probability density functions at a candidate station to detect inhomogeneities. The purpose of the current study is to test and compare this geostatistical approach with the methods previously presented in the HOME project, using surrogate precipitation series from the HOME benchmark data set. The benchmark data set contains monthly precipitation surrogate series, from which annual precipitation data series were derived. These annual precipitation series were subject to exploratory analysis and to a thorough variography study. The geostatistical approach was then applied to the data set, based on different scenarios for the spatial continuity. Implementing this procedure also promoted the development of a computer program that aims to assist on the homogenisation of climate data, while minimising user interaction. Finally, in order to compare the effectiveness of this methodology with the homogenisation methods submitted during the HOME project, the obtained results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David
2017-04-01
The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to
Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.
2016-12-01
Environmental phenomena are often first observed, and then explained or simulated quantitatively. The complexity and diversity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles to describe many processes make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes to first order manifest themselves in simple ways: the intensification of heavy precipitation is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and a variety of model predictions made decades ago, before robust evidence arose from observations. We here compare heavy precipitation changes over Europe and the contiguous United States across station series and gridded observations, theoretical considerations and multi-model ensembles of GCMs and RCMs. We demonstrate that the observed heavy precipitation intensification aggregated over large areas agrees remarkably well with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The observed changes in heavy precipitation are consistent yet somewhat larger than predicted by very coarse resolution GCMs in the 1980s and simulated by the newest generation of GCMs and RCMs. For instance the number of days with very heavy precipitation over Europe has increased by about 45% in observations (years 1981-2013 compared to 1951-1980) and by about 25% in the model average in both GCMs and RCMs, although with substantial spread across models and locations. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts. *Fischer, E.M., and R. Knutti, 2016, Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nature Climate Change, in press.
EnviroAtlas - Average Annual Precipitation 1981-2010 by HUC12 for the Conterminous United States
This EnviroAtlas dataset provides the average annual precipitation by 12-digit Hydrologic Unit (HUC). The values were estimated from maps produced by the PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University. The original data was at the scale of 800 m grid cells representing average precipitation from 1981-2010 in mm. The data was converted to inches of precipitation and then zonal statistics were estimated for a final value of average annual precipitation for each 12 digit HUC. For more information about the original dataset please refer to the PRISM website at http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/. This dataset was produced by the US EPA to support research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas. EnviroAtlas (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas) allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the contiguous United States. The dataset is available as downloadable data (https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/ORD/EnviroAtlas) or as an EnviroAtlas map service. Additional descriptive information about each attribute in this dataset can be found in its associated EnviroAtlas Fact Sheet (https://www.epa.gov/enviroatlas/enviroatlas-fact-sheets).
Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173
Gray, Stephen T.; Graumlich, Lisa J.; Betancourt, Julio L.
2007-01-01
Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700 yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest.
Annual precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region since AD 1173
Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Betancourt, J.L.
2007-01-01
Cores and cross sections from 133 limber pine (Pinus flexilis James) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco) at four sites were used to estimate annual (July to June) precipitation in the Yellowstone National Park region for the period from AD 1173 to 1998. Examination of the long-term record shows that the early 20th century was markedly wet compared to the previous 700??yr. Extreme wet and dry years within the instrumental period fall within the range of past variability, and the magnitude of the worst-case droughts of the 20th century (AD 1930s and 1950s) was likely equaled or exceeded on numerous occasions before AD 1900. Spectral analysis showed significant decadal to multidecadal precipitation variability. At times this lower frequency variability produces strong regime-like behavior in regional precipitation, with the potential for rapid, high-amplitude switching between predominately wet and predominately dry conditions. Over multiple time scales, strong Yellowstone region precipitation anomalies were almost always associated with spatially extensive events spanning various combinations of the central and southern U.S. Rockies, the northern U.S.-Southern Canadian Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. ?? 2007 University of Washington.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayashi, Masaki; Farrow, Christopher R.
2014-12-01
Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y-1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y-1) in 1982-1995 to a high value (15 mm y-1) in 2003-2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.
Weaver, J. Curtis
2006-01-01
A study of annual maximum precipitation frequency in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, was conducted to characterize the frequency of precipitation at sites having at least 10 years of precipitation record. Precipitation-frequency studies provide information about the occurrence of precipitation amounts for given durations (for example, 1 hour or 24 hours) that can be expected to occur within a specified recurrence interval (expressed in years). In this study, annual maximum precipitation totals were determined for durations of 15 and 30 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours; and for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years. Precipitation data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey network of raingages in the city of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County were analyzed for this study. In September 2004, more than 70 precipitation sites were in operation; 27 of these sites had at least 10 years of record, which is the minimum record typically required in frequency studies. Missing record at one site, however, resulted in its removal from the dataset. Two datasets--the Charlotte Raingage Network (CRN) initial and CRN modified datasets--were developed from the U.S. Geological Survey data, which represented relatively short periods of record (10 and 11 years). The CRN initial dataset included very high precipitation totals from two storms that caused severe flooding in areas of the city and county in August 1995 and July 1997, which could significantly influence the statistical results. The CRN modified dataset excluded the highest precipitation totals from these two storms but included the second highest totals. More...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nelson, E.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Wood, N.; Smalley, M.; Kulie, M.; Hahn, W.
2017-12-01
Global models exhibit substantial biases in the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scales of precipitation systems. Much of this uncertainty stems from an inadequate representation of the processes by which water is cycled between the surface and atmosphere and, in particular, those that govern the formation and maintenance of cloud systems and their propensity to form the precipitation. Progress toward improving precipitation process models requires observing systems capable of quantifying the coupling between the ice content, vertical mass fluxes, and precipitation yield of precipitating cloud systems. Spaceborne multi-frequency, Doppler radar offers a unique opportunity to address this need but the effectiveness of such a mission is heavily dependent on its ability to actually observe the processes of interest in the widest possible range of systems. Planning for a next generation precipitation process observing system should, therefore, start with a fundamental evaluation of the trade-offs between sensitivity, resolution, sampling, cost, and the overall potential scientific yield of the mission. Here we provide an initial assessment of the scientific and economic trade-space by evaluating hypothetical spaceborne multi-frequency radars using a combination of current real-world and model-derived synthetic observations. Specifically, we alter the field of view, vertical resolution, and sensitivity of a hypothetical Ka- and W-band radar system and propagate those changes through precipitation detection and intensity retrievals. The results suggest that sampling biases introduced by reducing sensitivity disproportionately affect the light rainfall and frozen precipitation regimes that are critical for warm cloud feedbacks and ice sheet mass balance, respectively. Coarser spatial resolution observations introduce regime-dependent biases in both precipitation occurrence and intensity that depend on cloud regime, with even the sign of the bias varying within a
A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.
Yang, Bao; Qin, Chun; Wang, Jianglin; He, Minhui; Melvin, Thomas M; Osborn, Timothy J; Briffa, Keith R
2014-02-25
An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.
Sheel Bansal; Jeremy J. James; Roger L. Sheley
2014-01-01
Multiple species of annual grasses are invading sagebrush-steppe communities throughout the western United States. Most research has focused on dominant species such as Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), yet other, less studied annual grasses such as Taeniatherum caput-medusae (medusahead) and Ventenata dubia (ventenata) are spreading rapidly. Future precipitation regimes...
On the teleconnection patterns to precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhong, Yu; Wang, Binbin; Zou, Chris B.; Hu, Bill X.; Liu, Youcun; Hao, Yonghong
2017-11-01
The Tianshan Mountains are known as the "water tower" in the arid region of Central Asia. Change in precipitation amount and pattern can have a profound impact on regional civilization and life supporting ecosystems. For this study, a systematic analysis of long-term precipitation data for the eastern Tianshan Mountains was conducted to investigate the influence of climate teleconnections on annual and intra-annual precipitation using data collected between 1951 and 2014 from 39 meteorological stations. Annual precipitation has increased during the past six decades at an average rate of 6.7 mm/10 years largely due to the increase in precipitation during the intra-annual wet period (May-October). The annual precipitation and its rate of increase were higher in the northwestern region. Annual precipitation was found to be most strongly correlated with index of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and partially correlated with indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ISM was positively correlated with the precipitation in almost the entire region during the intra-annual wet period, while it showed positive correlations in the northern slope and the alpine region, and negative correlations in the southern slope during the intra-annual dry period (November to April). PDO had much weaker influence both in spatial scale and strength and primarily affected low elevations on the southern slopes of the middle and western regions. The impacts of PNA and AO on precipitation were weak and localized. ENSO and NAO indices were almost not correlated with annual precipitation observation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains.
Climate, interseasonal storage of soil water, and the annual water balance
Milly, P.C.D.
1994-01-01
The effects of annual totals and seasonal variations of precipitation and potential evaporation on the annual water balance are explored. It is assumed that the only other factor of significance to annual water balance is a simple process of water storage, and that the relevant storage capacity is the plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil. Under the assumption that precipitation and potential evaporation vary sinusoidally through the year, it is possible to derive an analytic solution of the storage problem, and this yields an expression for the fraction of precipitation that evaporates (and the fraction that runs off) as a function of three dimensionless numbers: the ratio of annual potential evaporation to annual precipitation (index of dryness); an index of the seasonality of the difference between precipitation and potential evaporation; and the ratio of plant-available water-holding capacity to annual precipitation. The solution is applied to the area of the United States east of 105??W, using published information on precipitation, potential evaporation, and plant-available water-holding capacity as inputs, and using an independent analysis of observed river runoff for model evaluation. The model generates an areal mean annual runoff of only 187 mm, which is about 30% less than the observed runoff (263 mm). The discrepancy is suggestive of the importance of runoff-generating mechanisms neglected in the model. These include intraseasonal variability (storminess) of precipitation, spatial variability of storage capacity, and finite infiltration capacity of land. ?? 1994.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bezrukova, Natalia A.; Jeck, Richard K.; Khalili, Marat F.; Minina, Ludmila S.; Naumov, Alexander Ya.; Stulov, Evgeny A.
2006-11-01
This work is a continuation of the previous climatological study of freezing precipitation and rime over the USSR territory [ Bezrukova, N.A., Minina, L.S., Naumov, A.Ya., 2000. Freezing precipitation climatology in the former European USSR. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, pp.737-739, Reno, Nevada, USA, 14-18 August 2000; Bezrukova, N.A., Jeck, R.K., Minina, L.S., Khalili, M.F., Stulov, E.A., 2004. 10-year Statistics on Freezing Precipitation across the former USSR from surface weather observations. Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation, pp.731-734, Bologna, Italy, 19-23 August 2004.] aimed at creating an atlas of the frequency of these phenomena. This study gives considerable information about and a statistical analysis of freezing precipitation and rime events observed over the territory of the former USSR during a decade (1981-1990) and over the European territory of the USSR during two decades (1971-1990). This paper intends to draw the attention of the reader to the atlas and statistics by showing some interesting points. The authors used the data provided by the ground-based weather stations involved in the international exchange of meteorological data. The USSR network's Monthly Meteorological Tables (1971-1990) [Monthly Meteorological Tables, 1971-1990. Part 1, Novosibirsk-Obninsk. (in Russian).] comprising selected daily ground-based meteorological observations from more than 220 stations served as a basis for the analysis. All the types of freezing precipitation (FP) events were given as WMO Codes 56, 57, 66, 67, 24 and freezing fog (FF) deposited rime as WMO Codes 48, 49. The entire territory was divided into six major regions: the Arctic, the European part of the USSR, the Trans-Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and the Far East. The frequency and distribution of events by regions versus temperature, atmospheric pressure, clouds base height, and some other meteorological
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Gaoxu; Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; He, Qifang; Bai, Yiran; Zhang, Ruoyu
2018-02-01
The relationships between the river discharge and the precipitation in the Jinsha River basin are discussed in this study. In addition, the future precipitation trend from 2011-2050 and its potential influence on the river discharge are analysed by applying the CCLM-modelled precipitation. According to the observed river discharge and precipitation, the annual river discharge at the two main hydrological stations displays good correlations with the annual precipitation in the Jinsha River basin. The predicted future precipitation tends to change similarly as the change that occurred during the observation period, whereas the monthly distributions over a year could be more uneven, which is unfavourable for water resources management.
Montiel-González, Cristina; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Souza, Valeria
2017-01-01
Background Soil microbial communities (SMC) play a central role in the structure and function of desert ecosystems. However, the high variability of annual precipitation could results in the alteration of SMC and related biological processes depending on soil water potential. The nature of the physiological adjustments made by SMC in order to obtain energy and nutrients remains unclear under different soil resource availabilities in desert ecosystems. In order to examine this dynamic, the present study examined the effects of variation in annual precipitation on physiological adjustments by the SMC across two vegetation-soil systems of different soil organic matter input in an oligotrophic desert ecosystem. Methods We collected soil samples in the Cuatro Ciénegas Basin (Mexico) under two vegetation covers: rosetophylous scrub (RS) and grassland (G), that differ in terms of quantity and quality of organic matter. Collections were conducted during the years 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, over which a noticeable variation in the annual precipitation occurred. The ecoenzymatic activity involved in the decomposition of organic matter, and the concentration of dissolved, available and microbial biomass nutrients, were determined and compared between sites and years. Results In 2011, we observed differences in bacterial taxonomic composition between the two vegetation covers. The lowest values of dissolved, available and microbial nutrients in both cover types were found in 2012. The G soil showed higher values of dissolved and available nutrients in the wet years. Significant positive correlations were detected between precipitation and the ratios Cmic:Nmic and Cmic:Pmic in the RS soil and Cmic:Pmic and Nmic:Pmic in the G soil. The slopes of the regression with Cmic and Nmic were higher in the G soil and lower in the RS soil. Moreover, the SMC under each vegetation cover were co-limited by different nutrients and responded to the sum of water stress and nutrient limitation
Montiel-González, Cristina; Tapia-Torres, Yunuen; Souza, Valeria; García-Oliva, Felipe
2017-01-01
Soil microbial communities (SMC) play a central role in the structure and function of desert ecosystems. However, the high variability of annual precipitation could results in the alteration of SMC and related biological processes depending on soil water potential. The nature of the physiological adjustments made by SMC in order to obtain energy and nutrients remains unclear under different soil resource availabilities in desert ecosystems. In order to examine this dynamic, the present study examined the effects of variation in annual precipitation on physiological adjustments by the SMC across two vegetation-soil systems of different soil organic matter input in an oligotrophic desert ecosystem. We collected soil samples in the Cuatro Ciénegas Basin (Mexico) under two vegetation covers: rosetophylous scrub (RS) and grassland (G), that differ in terms of quantity and quality of organic matter. Collections were conducted during the years 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, over which a noticeable variation in the annual precipitation occurred. The ecoenzymatic activity involved in the decomposition of organic matter, and the concentration of dissolved, available and microbial biomass nutrients, were determined and compared between sites and years. In 2011, we observed differences in bacterial taxonomic composition between the two vegetation covers. The lowest values of dissolved, available and microbial nutrients in both cover types were found in 2012. The G soil showed higher values of dissolved and available nutrients in the wet years. Significant positive correlations were detected between precipitation and the ratios Cmic:Nmic and Cmic:Pmic in the RS soil and Cmic:Pmic and Nmic:Pmic in the G soil. The slopes of the regression with Cmic and Nmic were higher in the G soil and lower in the RS soil. Moreover, the SMC under each vegetation cover were co-limited by different nutrients and responded to the sum of water stress and nutrient limitation. Soil community within both
Miller, P C; Poole, D K
1983-02-01
The influence of annual precipitation and vegetation cover on soil moisture and on the length of the summer drought was estimated quantitatively using 9 years of soil moisture data collected at Echo Valley in southern California. The measurements support the conclusions that in the semi-arid mediterranean climate a soil drought will occur regardless of vegetation cover and annual precipitation, but the length of the drought is greatly dependent on soil depth and rockiness. Evergreen species which can survive this drought tend to accentuate the drought, especially in deep soil levels, by developing a canopy with a large transpiring surface.
Evaluation of satellite-retrieved extreme precipitation using gauge observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lockhoff, M.; Zolina, O.; Simmer, C.; Schulz, J.
2012-04-01
Precipitation extremes have already been intensively studied employing rain gauge datasets. Their main advantage is that they represent a direct measurement with a relatively high temporal coverage. Their main limitation however is their poor spatial coverage and thus a low representativeness in many parts of the world. In contrast, satellites can provide global coverage and there are meanwhile data sets available that are on one hand long enough to be used for extreme value analysis and that have on the other hand the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to capture extremes. However, satellite observations provide only an indirect mean to determine precipitation and there are many potential observational and methodological weaknesses in particular over land surfaces that may constitute doubts concerning their usability for the analysis of precipitation extremes. By comparing basic climatological metrics of precipitation (totals, intensities, number of wet days) as well as respective characteristics of PDFs, absolute and relative extremes of satellite and observational data this paper aims at assessing to which extent satellite products are suitable for analysing extreme precipitation events. In a first step the assessment focuses on Europe taking into consideration various satellite products available, e.g. data sets provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). First results indicate that satellite-based estimates do not only represent the monthly averaged precipitation very similar to rain gauge estimates but they also capture the day-to-day occurrence fairly well. Larger differences can be found though when looking at the corresponding intensities.
a Climatology of Global Precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Legates, David Russell
A global climatology of mean monthly precipitation has been developed using traditional land-based gage measurements as well as derived oceanic data. These data have been screened for coding errors and redundant entries have been removed. Oceanic precipitation estimates are most often extrapolated from coastal and island observations because few gage estimates of oceanic precipitation exist. One such procedure, developed by Dorman and Bourke and used here, employs a derived relationship between observed rainfall totals and the "current weather" at coastal stations. The combined data base contains 24,635 independent terrestial station records and 2223 oceanic grid-point records. Raingage catches are known to underestimate actual precipitation. Errors in the gage catch result from wind -field deformation, wetting losses, and evaporation from the gage and can amount to nearly 8, 2, and 1 percent of the global catch, respectively. A procedure has been developed to correct many of these errors and has been used to adjust the gage estimates of global precipitation. Space-time variations in gage type, air temperature, wind speed, and natural vegetation were incorporated into the correction procedure. Corrected data were then interpolated to the nodes of a 0.5^circ of latitude by 0.5^circ of longitude lattice using a spherically-based interpolation algorithm. Interpolation errors are largest in areas of low station density, rugged topography, and heavy precipitation. Interpolated estimates also were compared with a digital filtering technique to access the aliasing of high-frequency "noise" into the lower frequency signals. Isohyetal maps displaying the mean annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation are presented. Gage corrections and the standard error of the corrected estimates also are mapped. Results indicate that mean annual global precipitation is 1123 mm with 1251 mm falling over the oceans and 820 mm over land. Spatial distributions of monthly precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Greene, Arthur M.; Robertson, Andrew W.
2017-12-01
An assessment is made of the ability of general circulation models in the CMIP5 ensemble to reproduce observed modes of low-frequency winter/spring precipitation variability in the region of the Upper Indus basin (UIB) in south-central Asia. This season accounts for about two thirds of annual precipitation totals in the UIB and is characterized by "western disturbances" propagating along the eastward extension of the Mediterranean storm track. Observational data are utilized for for spatiotemporal characterization of the precipitation seasonal cycle, to compute seasonalized spectra and finally, to examine teleconnections, in terms of large-scale patterns in sea-surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. Annual and lowpassed variations are found to be associated primarily with SST modes in the tropical and extratropical Pacific. A more obscure link to North Atlantic SST, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, is also noted. An ensemble of 31 CMIP5 models is then similarly assessed, using unforced preindustrial multi-century control runs. Of these models, eight are found to reproduce well the two leading modes of the observed seasonal cycle. This model subset is then assessed in the spectral domain and with respect to teleconnection patterns, where a range of behaviors is noted. Two model families each account for three members of this subset. The degree of within-family similarity in behavior is shown to reflect underlying model differences. The results provide estimates of unforced regional hydroclimate variability over the UIB on interannual and decadal scales and the corresponding far-field influences, and are of potential relevance for the estimation of uncertainties in future water availability.
Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.
Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J; Lemoine, Nathan P; Mänd, Pille; Kröel-Dulay, György; Schmidt, Inger K; Jentsch, Anke; Stampfli, Andreas; Anderegg, William R L; Bahn, Michael; Kreyling, Juergen; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Lloret, Francisco; Classen, Aimée T; Gough, Christopher M; Smith, Melinda D
2018-04-27
Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Fisher, Donald W.
1967-01-01
A 2-year study of precipitation composition over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia has been completed. Chemical analyses were made of the major ions in monthly rainfall samples from each of 12 sampling locations. Areal and seasonal distributions were determined for chloride, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, sulfate, and nitrate. Annual changes in loads and in geographical distribution of sulfate and of nitrate are small. Yearly rainfall sulfate loads amount to approximately 7 tons per square mile, whereas deposition of nitrate is about 2 tons per square mile per year in the interior of the network and less near the coast. Areal patterns of chloride content are consistent with the assumption that the ocean is the only major source of rainfall chloride in the area. Chloride loads were 2.1 and 1.8 tons per square mile per year; the difference can be attributed to meteorological conditions. Cation concentrations in network precipitation appear to depend on localized sources, probably soil dust. Annual loads of the major cations are approximately 2 tons per square mile of calcium, 1.8 tons per square mile of sodium, 0.5 ton per square mile of magnesium, and 0.3 ton per square mile of potassium; considerable year-to-year differences were noted in these values. Bicarbonate and hydrogen ion in network rainfall are closely related to the relative concentrations of sulfate and calcium. Apparently, reaction of an acidic sulfur-containing aerosol with an alkaline calcium source is one of the principal controls on precipitation alkalinity and pH. Ions in precipitation contribute substantially to the quality of surface water in the network area. Comparisons between precipitation input and stream export of ions for four North Carolina rivers show that rainfall sulfate is equal to sulfate discharged, whereas nitrate in rain slightly exceeds stream nitrate. Contributions of cations to the streams by way of precipitation range from about 20 percent for potassium
Annual variation in event-scale precipitation δ2H at Barrow, AK, reflects vapor source region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Putman, Annie L.; Feng, Xiahong; Sonder, Leslie J.; Posmentier, Eric S.
2017-04-01
In this study, precipitation isotopic variations at Barrow, AK, USA, are linked to conditions at the moisture source region, along the transport path, and at the precipitation site. Seventy precipitation events between January 2009 and March 2013 were analyzed for δ2H and deuterium excess. For each precipitation event, vapor source regions were identified with the hybrid single-particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory (HYSPLIT) air parcel tracking program in back-cast mode. The results show that the vapor source region migrated annually, with the most distal (proximal) and southerly (northerly) vapor source regions occurring during the winter (summer). This may be related to equatorial expansion and poleward contraction of the polar circulation cell and the extent of Arctic sea ice cover. Annual cycles of vapor source region latitude and δ2H in precipitation were in phase; depleted (enriched) δ2H values were associated with winter (summer) and distal (proximal) vapor source regions. Precipitation δ2H responded to variation in vapor source region as reflected by significant correlations between δ2H with the following three parameters: (1) total cooling between lifted condensation level (LCL) and precipitating cloud at Barrow, ΔTcool, (2) meteorological conditions at the evaporation site quantified by 2 m dew point, Td, and (3) whether the vapor transport path crossed the Brooks and/or Alaskan ranges, expressed as a Boolean variable, mtn. These three variables explained 54 % of the variance (p<0. 001) in precipitation δ2H with a sensitivity of -3.51 ± 0.55 ‰ °C-1 (p<0. 001) to ΔTcool, 3.23 ± 0.83 ‰ °C-1 (p<0. 001) to Td, and -32.11 ± 11.04 ‰ (p = 0. 0049) depletion when mtn is true. The magnitude of each effect on isotopic composition also varied with vapor source region proximity. For storms with proximal vapor source regions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kucera, P. A.; Steinson, M.
2016-12-01
Accurate and reliable real-time monitoring and dissemination of observations of precipitation and surface weather conditions in general is critical for a variety of research studies and applications. Surface precipitation observations provide important reference information for evaluating satellite (e.g., GPM) precipitation estimates. High quality surface observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and winds are important for applications such as agriculture, water resource monitoring, health, and hazardous weather early warning systems. In many regions of the World, surface weather station and precipitation gauge networks are sparsely located and/or of poor quality. Existing stations have often been sited incorrectly, not well-maintained, and have limited communications established at the site for real-time monitoring. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with support from USAID, has started an initiative to develop and deploy low-cost weather instrumentation including tipping bucket and weighing-type precipitation gauges in sparsely observed regions of the world. The goal is to improve the number of observations (temporally and spatially) for the evaluation of satellite precipitation estimates in data-sparse regions and to improve the quality of applications for environmental monitoring and early warning alert systems on a regional to global scale. One important aspect of this initiative is to make the data open to the community. The weather station instrumentation have been developed using innovative new technologies such as 3D printers, Raspberry Pi computing systems, and wireless communications. An initial pilot project have been implemented in the country of Zambia. This effort could be expanded to other data sparse regions around the globe. The presentation will provide an overview and demonstration of 3D printed weather station development and initial evaluation of observed
Asymmetry in ecosystem responses to precipitation: Theory, observation and experimentation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sala, O.; Gherardi, L.; Reichmann, L.; Peters, D.
2017-12-01
Ecosystem processes such as primary production respond to changes in precipitation that occur annually and at longer time scales. The questions guiding this presentation are whether ecosystem responses to wet and dry years are symmetrical. Is the increase in productivity in a wet year similar in absolute value to the decrease in productivity in a dry year following a wet year? Is the response to one dry or wet year similar tot response of several consecutive wet and dry years? Do all plant-functional groups respond in a similar way to changes in precipitation? To address the questions we explore the theory behind a potential asymmetry and report on experimental results. Analysis of the cost and benefits of plant responses to changes in precipitation support the idea asymmetrical responses because the threshold for abscising organs that have already been deployed should be higher than the threshold to deploy new organs. However, experiments in a desert grassland in New Mexico where we experimentally increased and decreased precipitation from one year to the next showed that the response was symmetrical. Another mechanism that may yield asymmetries is the productivity response to changes in precipitation is associated with the shape of the relationship between precipitation and productivity. Straight-line relationship may yield no asymmetries whereas a saturating or concave up relationship may result in different asymmetries. Here, we report results from an experiment that yielded concave down responses for grasses and concave up for shrubs. Finally, we report results from a 10-year experiment showing asymmetric responses of grasses and shrubs. Moreover, the magnitude of the sign of the responses changed with the time since the beginning of the precipitation manipulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.
2016-01-01
Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and
High-resolution in situ observations of electron precipitation-causing EMIC waves
Rodger, Craig J.; Hendry, Aaron T.; Clilverd, Mark A.; ...
2015-11-21
Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are thought to be important drivers of energetic electron losses from the outer radiation belt through precipitation into the atmosphere. While the theoretical possibility of pitch angle scattering-driven losses from these waves has been recognized for more than four decades, there have been limited experimental precipitation observations to support this concept. We have combined satellite-based observations of the characteristics of EMIC waves, with satellite and ground-based observations of the EMIC-induced electron precipitation. In a detailed case study, supplemented by an additional four examples, we are able to constrain for the first time the location, size,more » and energy range of EMIC-induced electron precipitation inferred from coincident precipitation data and relate them to the EMIC wave frequency, wave power, and ion band of the wave as measured in situ by the Van Allen Probes. As a result, these observations will better constrain modeling into the importance of EMIC wave-particle interactions.« less
Further Evaluation of an Emperical Equation for Annual Total Evaporation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Choudhury, Bhaskar J.
1999-01-01
An empirical equation for annual total evaporation based on annual precipitation and net radiation was found to provide evaporation within 10% of the observed values at seven locations within temperate and tropical regions, but it overestimated evaporation by 90% at one location within the tundra region. A synthesis of observations at two other locations within the tundra region gives overestimates of about 65%. A general analysis of observed precipitation, net radiation, and runoff within the tundra region shows that the empirical equation is generally biased to overestimate annual evaporation within the tundra region. A theoretical analysis is being done to understand the reason behind this bias.
Climate, soil water storage, and the average annual water balance
Milly, P.C.D.
1994-01-01
This paper describes the development and testing of the hypothesis that the long-term water balance is determined only by the local interaction of fluctuating water supply (precipitation) and demand (potential evapotranspiration), mediated by water storage in the soil. Adoption of this hypothesis, together with idealized representations of relevant input variabilities in time and space, yields a simple model of the water balance of a finite area having a uniform climate. The partitioning of average annual precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff depends on seven dimensionless numbers: the ratio of average annual potential evapotranspiration to average annual precipitation (index of dryness); the ratio of the spatial average plant-available water-holding capacity of the soil to the annual average precipitation amount; the mean number of precipitation events per year; the shape parameter of the gamma distribution describing spatial variability of storage capacity; and simple measures of the seasonality of mean precipitation intensity, storm arrival rate, and potential evapotranspiration. The hypothesis is tested in an application of the model to the United States east of the Rocky Mountains, with no calibration. Study area averages of runoff and evapotranspiration, based on observations, are 263 mm and 728 mm, respectively; the model yields corresponding estimates of 250 mm and 741 mm, respectively, and explains 88% of the geographical variance of observed runoff within the study region. The differences between modeled and observed runoff can be explained by uncertainties in the model inputs and in the observed runoff. In the humid (index of dryness <1) parts of the study area, the dominant factor producing runoff is the excess of annual precipitation over annual potential evapotranspiration, but runoff caused by variability of supply and demand over time is also significant; in the arid (index of dryness >1) parts, all of the runoff is caused by variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Min; Kang, Shichang; Wu, Hao; Yuan, Xu
2018-05-01
As abundant distribution of glaciers and snow, the Tianshan Mountains are highly vulnerable to changes in climate. Based on meteorological station records during 1960-2016, we detected the variations of air temperature and precipitation by using non-parametric method in the different sub-regions and different elevations of the Tianshan Mountains. The mutations of climate were investigated by Mann-Kendall abrupt change test in the sub-regions. The periodicity is examined by wavelet analysis employing a chi-square test and detecting significant time sections. The results show that the Tianshan Mountains experienced an overall rapid warming and wetting during study period, with average warming rate of 0.32 °C/10a and wet rate of 5.82 mm/10a, respectively. The annual and seasonal spatial variation of temperature showed different scales in different regions. The annual precipitation showed non-significant upward trend in 20 stations, and 6 stations showed a significant upward trend. The temperatures in the East Tianshan increased most rapidly at rates of 0.41 °C/10a. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the Boertala Vally (8.07 mm/10a) and lowest in the East Tianshan (2.64 mm/10a). The greatest and weakest warming was below 500 m (0.42 °C/10a) and elevation of 1000-1500 m (0.23 °C/10a), respectively. The increasing magnitudes of annual precipitation were highest in the elevation of 1500 m-2000 m (9.22 mm/10a) and lowest in the elevation of below 500 m (3.45 mm/10a). The mutations of annual air temperature and precipitation occurred in 1995 and 1990, respectively. The large atmospheric circulation influenced on the mutations of climate. The significant periods of air temperature were 2.4-4.1 years, and annual precipitation was 2.5-7.4 years. Elevation dependency of temperature trend magnitude was not evidently in the Tianshan Mountains. The annual precipitation wetting trend was amplified with elevation in summer and autumn. The strong
Microwave Observations of Precipitation and the Atmosphere
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Staelin, David H.; Rosenkranz, Philip W.
2004-01-01
This research effort had three elements devoted to improving satellite-derived passive microwave retrievals of precipitation rate: morphological rain-rate retrievals, warm rain retrievals, and extension of a study of geostationary satellite options. The morphological precipitation-rate retrieval method uses for the first time the morphological character of the observed storm microwave spectra. The basic concept involves: 1) retrieval of point rainfall rates using current algorithms, 2) using spatial feature vectors of the observations over segmented multi-pixel storms to estimate the integrated rainfall rate for that storm (cu m/s), and 3) normalization of the point rain-rate retrievals to ensure consistency with the storm-wide retrieval. This work is ongoing, but two key steps have been completed: development of a segmentation algorithm for defining spatial regions corresponding to single storms for purposes of estimation, and reduction of some of the data from NAST-M that will be used to support this research going forward. The warm rain retrieval method involved extension of Aquai/AIRS/AMSU/HSB algorithmic work on cloud water retrievals. The central concept involves the fact that passive microwave cloud water retrievals over approx. 0.4 mm are very likely associated with precipitation. Since glaciated precipitation is generally detected quite successfully using scattering signatures evident in the surface-blind 54- and 183-GHz bands, this new method complements the first by permitting precipitation retrievals of non-glaciated events. The method is most successful over ocean, but has detected non-glaciated convective cells over land, perhaps in their early formative stages. This work will require additional exploration and validation prior to publication. Passive microwave instrument configurations for use in geostationary orbit were studied. They employ parabolic reflectors between 2 and 4 meters in diameter, and frequencies up to approx.430 GHz; this
EMIC Waves Observed in Conjunction with BARREL Electron Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weaver, C.; Engebretson, M. J.; Lessard, M.; Halford, A. J.; Millan, R. M.; Horne, R. B.; Singer, H. J.
2013-05-01
Electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) waves have been detected at Halley, Antarctica coinciding with observations of electron precipitation on high altitude balloons from the Balloon Array for RBSP Relativistic Electron Losses (BARREL) campaign launched in early 2013 from SANAE IV and Halley Station. The balloons were launched such that both spatial and temporal properties of electron precipitation might be examined. With a magnetic foot point mapped to the radiation belts, Halley is an ideal location to capture ground based signatures that coincide with electron precipitation. EMIC waves have been shown, both theoretically and through statistical surveys, to pitch angle scatter energetic protons and relativistic electrons via cyclotron resonance and contribute to radiation belt dynamics. EMIC waves were detected at Halley Station 23 times from 12 Jan - 4 Feb with 17 of those waves occurring during times when at least one BARREL balloon observed precipitation in one or more energy channels. High resolution magnetometer data from GOES 13 (which has a magnetic foot point near WAIS Divide, Antarctica-located about 2.5 hours, in MLT, west of Halley) show similar EMIC wave structure and frequency to 9 waves observed at Halley, suggesting the source region extended to at least the longitude and L value of GOES 13 during some events. The ground observed waves appeared in all local times and during both quiet and disturbed intervals.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie
2016-04-01
Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
An appraisal of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of the Indus basin.
Dahri, Zakir Hussain; Ludwig, Fulco; Moors, Eddy; Ahmad, Bashir; Khan, Asif; Kabat, Pavel
2016-04-01
Scarcity of in-situ observations coupled with high orographic influences has prevented a comprehensive assessment of precipitation distribution in the high-altitude catchments of Indus basin. Available data are generally fragmented and scattered with different organizations and mostly cover the valleys. Here, we combine most of the available station data with the indirect precipitation estimates at the accumulation zones of major glaciers to analyse altitudinal dependency of precipitation in the high-altitude Indus basin. The available observations signified the importance of orography in each sub-hydrological basin but could not infer an accurate distribution of precipitation with altitude. We used Kriging with External Drift (KED) interpolation scheme with elevation as a predictor to appraise spatiotemporal distribution of mean monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation for the period of 1998-2012. The KED-based annual precipitation estimates are verified by the corresponding basin-wide observed specific runoffs, which show good agreement. In contrast to earlier studies, our estimates reveal substantially higher precipitation in most of the sub-basins indicating two distinct rainfall maxima; 1st along southern and lower most slopes of Chenab, Jhelum, Indus main and Swat basins, and 2nd around north-west corner of Shyok basin in the central Karakoram. The study demonstrated that the selected gridded precipitation products covering this region are prone to significant errors. In terms of quantitative estimates, ERA-Interim is relatively close to the observations followed by WFDEI and TRMM, while APHRODITE gives highly underestimated precipitation estimates in the study area. Basin-wide seasonal and annual correction factors introduced for each gridded dataset can be useful for lumped hydrological modelling studies, while the estimated precipitation distribution can serve as a basis for bias correction of any gridded precipitation products for the study area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.
2016-12-01
There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.
A Bayesian kriging approach for blending satellite and ground precipitation observations
Verdin, Andrew P.; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Funk, Christopher C.
2015-01-01
Drought and flood management practices require accurate estimates of precipitation. Gauge observations, however, are often sparse in regions with complicated terrain, clustered in valleys, and of poor quality. Consequently, the spatial extent of wet events is poorly represented. Satellite-derived precipitation data are an attractive alternative, though they tend to underestimate the magnitude of wet events due to their dependency on retrieval algorithms and the indirect relationship between satellite infrared observations and precipitation intensities. Here we offer a Bayesian kriging approach for blending precipitation gauge data and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation satellite-derived precipitation estimates for Central America, Colombia, and Venezuela. First, the gauge observations are modeled as a linear function of satellite-derived estimates and any number of other variables—for this research we include elevation. Prior distributions are defined for all model parameters and the posterior distributions are obtained simultaneously via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The posterior distributions of these parameters are required for spatial estimation, and thus are obtained prior to implementing the spatial kriging model. This functional framework is applied to model parameters obtained by sampling from the posterior distributions, and the residuals of the linear model are subject to a spatial kriging model. Consequently, the posterior distributions and uncertainties of the blended precipitation estimates are obtained. We demonstrate this method by applying it to pentadal and monthly total precipitation fields during 2009. The model's performance and its inherent ability to capture wet events are investigated. We show that this blending method significantly improves upon the satellite-derived estimates and is also competitive in its ability to represent wet events. This procedure also provides a means to estimate a full conditional distribution
Ch Miliaresis, George
2016-06-01
A method is presented for elevation (H) and spatial position (X, Y) decorrelation stretch of annual precipitation summaries on a 1-km grid for SW USA for the period 2003 to 2014. Multiple linear regression analysis of the first and second principal component (PC) quantifies the variance in the multi-temporal precipitation imagery that is explained by X, Y, and elevation (h). The multi-temporal dataset is reconstructed from the PC1 and PC2 residual images and the later PCs by taking into account the variance that is not related to X, Y, and h. Clustering of the reconstructed precipitation dataset allowed the definition of positive (for example, in Sierra Nevada, Salt Lake City) and negative (for example, in San Joaquin Valley, Nevada, Colorado Plateau) precipitation anomalies. The temporal and spatial patterns defined from the spatially standardized multi-temporal precipitation imagery provide a tool of comparison for regions in different geographic environments according to the deviation from the precipitation amount that they are expected to receive as function of X, Y, and h. Such a standardization allows the definition of less or more sensitive to climatic change regions and gives an insight in the spatial impact of atmospheric circulation that causes the annual precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moon, Suyeon; Ha, Kyung-Ja
2017-05-01
Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models' MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models' MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced
Areal and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Patterns In Slovakia Using Spectral Analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pishvaei, M. R.
Harmonic analysis as an objective method of precipitation seasonality studying is ap- plied to the 1901-2000 monthly precipitation averages at five stations in the low-land part of Slovakia with elevation less than 800 m a.s.l. The significant harmonics of long-term precipitation series have been separately computed for eight 30-year peri- ods, which cover the 20th century and some properties and the variations are com- pared to 100-year monthly precipitation averages. The selected results show that the first and the second harmonics pre-dominantly influence on the annual distribution and climatic seasonal regimes of pre-cipitation that contribute to the precipitation am- plitude/pattern with about 20% and 10%, respectively. These indicate annual and half year variations. The rest harmon-ics often have each less than 5% contribution on the Fourier interpolation course. Maximum in yearly precipitation course, which oc- curs approximately at the begin-ning of July, because of phase changing shifts then to the middle of June. Some probable reasons regarding to Fourier components are discussed. In addition, a tem-poral analysis over precipitation time series belonging to the Hurbanovo Observa-tory as the longest observational series on the territory of Slovakia (with 130-year precipitation records) has been individually performed and possible meteorological factors responsible for the observed patterns are suggested. A comparison of annual precipitation course obtained from daily precipitation totals analysis and polynomial trends with Fourier interpolation has been done too. Daily precipitation data in the latest period are compared for some stations in Slovakia as well. Only selected results are pre-sented in the poster.
Large uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over land
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herold, Nicholas; Behrangi, Ali; Alexander, Lisa V.
2017-01-01
We explore uncertainties in observed daily precipitation extremes over the terrestrial tropics and subtropics (50°S-50°N) based on five commonly used products: the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre-Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) dataset, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) multi-satellite research product (T3B42 v7), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's One-Degree Daily (GPCP-1DD) dataset. We use the precipitation indices R10mm and Rx1day, developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to explore the behavior of "moderate" and "extreme" extremes, respectively. In order to assess the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to different grid sizes we perform our calculations on four common spatial resolutions (0.25° × 0.25°, 1° × 1°, 2.5° × 2.5°, and 3.75° × 2.5°). The impact of the chosen "order of operation" in calculating these indices is also determined. Our results show that moderate extremes are relatively insensitive to product and resolution choice, while extreme extremes can be very sensitive. For example, at 0.25° × 0.25° quasi-global mean Rx1day values vary from 37 mm in PERSIANN-CDR to 62 mm in T3B42. We find that the interproduct spread becomes prominent at resolutions of 1° × 1° and finer, thus establishing a minimum effective resolution at which observational products agree. Without improvements in interproduct spread, these exceedingly large observational uncertainties at high spatial resolution may limit the usefulness of model evaluations. As has been found previously, resolution sensitivity can be largely eliminated by applying an order of operation where indices are calculated prior to regridding. However, this approach is not appropriate when true area averages are desired
Precipitation Extremes in Dynamically Downscaled Climate Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiferaw, A. S.; Tadesse, T.; Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.
2017-12-01
The precipitation extremes were generated over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) using the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). To assess how well the RCM simulations are capturing the historical observed precipitation extremes, they were compared with the precipitation extremes derived from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS v2). The result shows that RCM simulations have reasonably captured observed patterns of the precipitation extremes (i.e., the pattern correlation is greater than 0.5). However, significant overestimations or underestimations were observed over some localized areas in the region. The study then assessed the projected changes in these precipitation extremes during 2069-2098 and compared to the 1976-2005 period that were both derived from the RCM simulations. Projected changes in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), annual number of heavy (>10mm) and very heavy (>20mm) precipitation days by 2069-2098 show a general north-south pattern with a decrease over southern-half and increase over the northern-half of GHA. These changes are often greatest over parts of Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopian highlands and southern Tanzania. Maximum 1 and 5-day total precipitation in a year and "Simple Daily Precipitation Intensity Index" (ratio of PRCPTOT to rainy days) are projected to increase over majority of GHA, including areas where PRCPTOT is projected to decrease, suggesting fewer but heavier rainy days in the future. Changes in annual sum of daily precipitation above 95th and 99th percentile are not statistically significant except Eritrea and northwestern Sudan/Somalia. Projected changes in consecutive dry days (CDD) suggest longer periods of dryness over majority of GHA. Among these areas, a substantial increases in CDD are located over southern Tanzania and Ethiopian highlands.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Crowley, John W.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Bailey, Richard C.; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Davis, James L.
2007-01-01
We combine satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation measurements from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), over the period from mid-2002 to mid-2006, to investigate the relative importance of sink (runoff and evaporation) and source (precipitation) terms in the hydrological balance of the Amazon Basin. When linear and quadratic terms are removed, the time series of land water storage variations estimated from GRACE exhibits a dominant annual signal of 250 mm peak-to-peak, which is equivalent to a water volume change of approximately 1800 cubic kilometers. A comparison of this trend with accumulated (i.e., integrated) precipitation shows excellent agreement and no evidence of basin saturation. The agreement indicates that the net runoff and evaporation contributes significantly less than precipitation to the annual hydrological mass balance. Indeed, raw residuals between the detrended water storage and precipitation anomalies range from plus or minus 40 mm. This range is consistent with streamflow measurements from the region, although the latter are characterized by a stronger annual signal than ow residuals, suggesting that runoff and evaporation may act to partially cancel each other.
Estimating mountain basin-mean precipitation from streamflow using Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Lundquist, Jessica D.
2015-10-01
Estimating basin-mean precipitation in complex terrain is difficult due to uncertainty in the topographical representativeness of precipitation gauges relative to the basin. To address this issue, we use Bayesian methodology coupled with a multimodel framework to infer basin-mean precipitation from streamflow observations, and we apply this approach to snow-dominated basins in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using streamflow observations, forcing data from lower-elevation stations, the Bayesian Total Error Analysis (BATEA) methodology and the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE), we infer basin-mean precipitation, and compare it to basin-mean precipitation estimated using topographically informed interpolation from gauges (PRISM, the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model). The BATEA-inferred spatial patterns of precipitation show agreement with PRISM in terms of the rank of basins from wet to dry but differ in absolute values. In some of the basins, these differences may reflect biases in PRISM, because some implied PRISM runoff ratios may be inconsistent with the regional climate. We also infer annual time series of basin precipitation using a two-step calibration approach. Assessment of the precision and robustness of the BATEA approach suggests that uncertainty in the BATEA-inferred precipitation is primarily related to uncertainties in hydrologic model structure. Despite these limitations, time series of inferred annual precipitation under different model and parameter assumptions are strongly correlated with one another, suggesting that this approach is capable of resolving year-to-year variability in basin-mean precipitation.
Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA
Griffin, Eleanor R.; Friedman, Jonathan M.
2017-01-01
High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.
The role of proton precipitation in Jovian aurora: Theory and observation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Waite, J. H., Jr.; Curran, D. B.; Cravens, T. E.; Clarke, J. T.
1992-01-01
It was proposed that the Jovian auroral emissions observed by Voyager spacecraft could be explained by energetic protons precipitating into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. Such precipitation of energetic protons results in Doppler-shifted Lyman alpha emission that can be quantitatively analyzed to determine the energy flux and energy distribution of the incoming particle beam. Modeling of the expected emission from a reasonably chosen Voyager energetic proton spectrum can be used in conjunction with International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) observations, which show a relative lack of red-shifted Lyman alpha emission, to set upper limits on the amount of proton precipitation taking place in the Jovian aurora. Such calculations indicate that less than 10 percent of the ultraviolet auroral emissions at Jupiter can be explained by proton precipitation.
Impact of Asian Aerosols on Precipitation Over California: An Observational and Model Based Approach
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Naeger, Aaron R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Creamean, Jessie M.
2015-01-01
Dust and pollution emissions from Asia are often transported across the Pacific Ocean to over the western United States. Therefore, it is essential to fully understand the impact of these aerosols on clouds and precipitation forming over the eastern Pacific and western United States, especially during atmospheric river events that account for up to half of California's annual precipitation and can lead to widespread flooding. In order for numerical modeling simulations to accurately represent the present and future regional climate of the western United States, we must account for the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions associated with Asian dust and pollution aerosols. Therefore, we have constructed a detailed study utilizing multi-sensor satellite observations, NOAA-led field campaign measurements, and targeted numerical modeling studies where Asian aerosols interacted with cloud and precipitation processes over the western United States. In particular, we utilize aerosol optical depth retrievals from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-11), and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) to effectively detect and monitor the trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust and pollution. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals are used in assimilating the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in order to provide the model with an accurate representation of the aerosol spatial distribution across the Pacific. We conduct WRF-Chem model simulations of several cold-season atmospheric river events that interacted with Asian aerosols and brought significant precipitation over California during February-March 2011 when the NOAA CalWater field campaign was ongoing. The CalWater field campaign consisted of aircraft and surface measurements of aerosol and precipitation processes that help extensively validate our WRF
Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Seibert, J.
2018-01-01
Despite precipitation intensities may greatly vary during one flood event, detailed information about these intensities may not be required to accurately simulate floods with a hydrological model which rather reacts to cumulative precipitation sums. This raises two questions: to which extent is it important to preserve sub-daily precipitation intensities and how long does it effectively rain from the hydrological point of view? Both questions might seem straightforward to answer with a direct analysis of past precipitation events but require some arbitrary choices regarding the length of a precipitation event. To avoid these arbitrary decisions, here we present an alternative approach to characterize the effective length of precipitation event which is based on runoff simulations with respect to large floods. More precisely, we quantify the fraction of a day over which the daily precipitation has to be distributed to faithfully reproduce the large annual and seasonal floods which were generated by the hourly precipitation rate time series. New precipitation time series were generated by first aggregating the hourly observed data into daily totals and then evenly distributing them over sub-daily periods (n hours). These simulated time series were used as input to a hydrological bucket-type model and the resulting runoff flood peaks were compared to those obtained when using the original precipitation time series. We define then the effective daily precipitation duration as the number of hours n, for which the largest peaks are simulated best. For nine mesoscale Swiss catchments this effective daily precipitation duration was about half a day, which indicates that detailed information on precipitation intensities is not necessarily required to accurately estimate peaks of the largest annual and seasonal floods. These findings support the use of simple disaggregation approaches to make usage of past daily precipitation observations or daily precipitation simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Haselhorst, D. S.; Tcheng, D. K.; Moreno, J. E.; Punyasena, S. W.
2014-12-01
Observational data provide a powerful source of information for understanding the phenological response of tropical forests to a changing climate. Annual changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance, in part driven by ENSO cycles, provide a natural experiment. However, these time series are often relatively short (several years to several decades), the average climatic variability experienced in that timeframe is relatively small, and the corresponding response is therefore often very weak. As a result, standard statistical approaches may fail in detecting a biological response. We present an alternative ecoinformatic analysis that demonstrates the power of weak models in the discovery and interpretation of statistically significant signals in short, noisy, ecological time series. We developed a simple response prediction model that uses cross-validation to explore a landscape of models that correlate the phenological behavior of individual taxa (pollen production, flowering, fruiting) to seasonal and annual mean temperature, precipitation, and solar irradiance using multivariate linear regression. We use a sign slope sensitivity analysis of each linear model that tallies positive and negative slope counts of a taxon's phenological behavior to our environmental and null variables. We applied this analysis to pollen trap data collected from 1996 to 2006 from two lowland Panamanian forests, Barro Colorado Island and Parque National San Lorenzo. We also tested the performance of our predictive model using published data of annual flowering and fruiting from BCI to corroborate that our approach could reproduce previously published results on tropical phenology. Our results indicate that although the overall variation in temperature was 3.28 °C over the ten year period, pollen productivity at both sites was most consistently affected by changes in temperature. This result was replicated by the published BCI flower and fruit data, which also
Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Morrissey, Mark M.; Curtis, Scott; Joyce, Robert; McGavock, Brad; Susskind, Joel
2000-01-01
The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.
2014-10-01
We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, and surface observations to derive precipitation characteristics over CONUS for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor datasets (bias-adjusted TMPA 3B42, near-real time 3B42RT), radar estimates (NCEP Stage IV), and rain gauge observations. Remotely sensed precipitation datasets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model). The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, and daily scales over the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for CONUS. Annual average rain rates present a satisfying agreement with GHCN-D for all products over CONUS (± 6%). However, differences at the RFC are more important in particular for near-real time 3B42RT precipitation estimates (-33 to +49%). At annual and seasonal scales, the bias-adjusted 3B42 presented important improvement when compared to its near real time counterpart 3B42RT. However, large biases remained for 3B42 over the Western US for higher average accumulation (≥ 5 mm day-1) with respect to GHCN-D surface observations. At the daily scale, 3B42RT performed poorly in capturing extreme daily precipitation (> 4 in day-1) over the Northwest. Furthermore, the conditional analysis and the contingency analysis conducted illustrated the challenge of retrieving extreme precipitation from remote sensing estimates.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schubert, Brian A.; Jahren, A. Hope
2015-10-01
Modern and ancient wood is a valuable terrestrial record of carbon ultimately derived from the atmosphere and oxygen inherited from local meteoric water. Many modern and fossil wood specimens display rings sufficiently thick for intra-annual sampling, and analytical techniques are rapidly improving to allow for precise carbon and oxygen isotope measurements on very small samples, yielding unprecedented resolution of seasonal isotope records. However, the interpretation of these records across diverse environments has been problematic because a unifying model for the quantitative interpretation of seasonal climate parameters from oxygen isotopes in wood is lacking. Towards such a model, we compiled a dataset of intra-ring oxygen isotope measurements on modern wood cellulose (δ18Ocell) from 33 globally distributed sites. Five of these sites represent original data produced for this study, while the data for the other 28 sites were taken from the literature. We defined the intra-annual change in oxygen isotope value of wood cellulose [Δ(δ18Ocell)] as the difference between the maximum and minimum δ18Ocell values determined within the ring. Then, using the monthly-resolved dataset of the oxygen isotope composition of meteoric water (δ18OMW) provided by the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation database, we quantified the empirical relationship between the intra-annual change in meteoric water [Δ(δ18OMW)] and Δ(δ18Ocell). We then used monthly-resolved datasets of temperature and precipitation to develop a global relationship between Δ(δ18OMW) and maximum/minimum monthly temperatures and winter/summer precipitation amounts. By combining these relationships we produced a single equation that explains much of the variability in the intra-ring δ18Ocell signal through only changes in seasonal temperature and precipitation amount (R2 = 0.82). We show how our recent model that quantifies seasonal precipitation from intra-ring carbon isotope profiles can be
Recent changes in the spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Israel
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Steinberger, E.H.; Gazit-Yaari, N.
1996-12-01
Analysis of rainfall series in Israel during the period 1960-1990 for 99 stations has revealed that precipitation amounts have decreased in the northern and central coastal areas and in the northern mountain area. In the southern coastal area and the western slopes of the central mountains precipitation increased. There are indications that the observed trends may be the outcome of changes in the synoptic climate during the winter in the Eastern Mediterranean region. 8 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab.
Extreme daily precipitation: the case of Serbia in 2014
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tošić, Ivana; Unkašević, Miroslava; Putniković, Suzana
2017-05-01
The extreme daily precipitation in Serbia was examined at 16 stations during the period 1961-2014. Two synoptic situations in May and September of 2014 were analysed, when extreme precipitation was recorded in western and eastern Serbia, respectively. The synoptic situation from 14 to 16 May 2014 remained nearly stationary over the western and central Serbia for the entire period. On 15 May 2014, the daily rainfall broke previous historical records in Belgrade (109.8 mm), Valjevo (108.2 mm) and Loznica (110 mm). Precipitation exceeded 200 mm in 72 h, producing the most catastrophic floods in the recent history of Serbia. In Negotin (eastern Serbia), daily precipitation of 161.3 mm was registered on 16 September 2014, which was the maximum value recorded during the period 1961-2014. The daily maximum in 2014 was registered at 6 out of 16 stations. The total annual precipitation for 2014 was the highest for the period 1961-2014 at almost all stations in Serbia. A non-significant positive trend was found for all precipitation indices: annual daily maximum precipitation, the total precipitation in consecutive 3 and 5 days, the total annual precipitation, and number of days with at least 10 and 20 mm of precipitation. The generalised extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual daily maximum precipitation. The estimated 100-year return levels were 123.4 and 147.4 mm for the annual daily maximum precipitation in Belgrade and Negotin, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodger, Craig J.; Kavanagh, Andrew J.; Clilverd, Mark A.; Marple, Steve R.
2013-12-01
electron precipitation (EEP) impacts the chemistry of the middle atmosphere with growing evidence of coupling to surface temperatures at high latitudes. To better understand this link, it is essential to have realistic observations to properly characterize precipitation and which can be incorporated into chemistry-climate models. The Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) detectors measure precipitating particles but only integral fluxes and only in a fraction of the bounce loss cone. Ground-based riometers respond to precipitation from the whole bounce loss cone; they measure the cosmic radio noise absorption (CNA), a qualitative proxy with scant direct information on the energy flux of EEP. POES observations should have a direct relationship with ΔCNA and comparing the two will clarify their utility in studies of atmospheric change. We determined ionospheric changes produced by the EEP measured by the POES spacecraft in ~250 overpasses of an imaging riometer in northern Finland. The ΔCNA modeled from the POES data is 10-15 times less than the observed ΔCNA when the >30 keV flux is reported as <106 cm-2 s-1 sr-1. Above this level, there is relatively good agreement between the space-based and ground-based measurements. The discrepancy occurs mostly during periods of low geomagnetic activity, and we contend that weak diffusion is dominating the pitch angle scattering into the bounce loss cone at these times. A correction to the calculation using measurements of the trapped flux considerably reduces the discrepancy and provides further support to our hypothesis that weak diffusion leads to underestimates of the EEP.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abbasnezhadi, K.; Rasmussen, P. F.; Stadnyk, T.
2014-12-01
To gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall over the Churchill River basin, this study was undertaken. The research incorporates gridded precipitation data from the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. CaPA has been developed by Environment Canada and provides near real-time precipitation estimates on a 10 km by 10 km grid over North America at a temporal resolution of 6 hours. The spatial fields are generated by combining forecasts from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with precipitation observations from the network of synoptic weather stations. CaPA's skill is highly influenced by the number of weather stations in the region of interest as well as by the quality of the observations. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of CaPA as a function of the density of the weather station network, a dual-stage design algorithm to simulate CaPA is proposed which incorporates generated weather fields. More specifically, we are adopting a controlled design algorithm which is generally known as Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The advantage of using the experiment is that one can define reference precipitation fields assumed to represent the true state of rainfall over the region of interest. In the first stage of the defined OSSE, a coupled stochastic model of precipitation and temperature gridded fields is calibrated and validated. The performance of the generator is then validated by comparing model statistics with observed statistics and by using the generated samples as input to the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model. In the second stage of the experiment, in order to account for the systematic error of station observations and GEM fields, representative errors are to be added to the reference field using by-products of CaPA's variographic analysis. These by-products explain the variance of station observations and background errors.
Extreme Precipitation in Poland in the Years 1951-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malinowska, Miroslawa
2017-12-01
The characteristics of extreme precipitation, including the dominant trends, were analysed for eight stations located in different parts of Poland for the period 1951-2010. Five indices enabling the assessment of the intensity and frequency of both extremely dry and wet conditions were applied. The indices included the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10), maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5d), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the 95th percentile calculated for the period 1961-1990. Annual trends were calculated using standard linear regression method, while the fit of the model was assessed with the F-test at the 95% confidence level. The analysed changes in extreme precipitation showed mixed patterns. A significant positive trend in the number of days with precipitation ≥10mm·d-1 (R10) was observed in central Poland, while a significant negative one, in south-eastern Poland. Based on the analysis of maximum 5-day precipitation totals (R5d), statistically significant positive trends in north-western, western and eastern parts of the country were detected, while the negative trends were found in the central and northeastern parts. Daily precipitation, expressed as single daily intensity index (SDII), increased over time in northern and central Poland. In southern Poland, the variation of SDII index showed non-significant negative tendencies. Finally, the fraction of annual total precipitation due to the events exceeding the 1961-1990 95th percentile increased at one station only, namely, in Warsaw. The indicator which refers to dry conditions, i.e. maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) displayed negative trends throughout the surveyed area, with the exception of Szczecin that is a representative of north-western Poland.
Spatial analysis of precipitation time series over the Upper Indus Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Latif, Yasir; Yaoming, Ma; Yaseen, Muhammad
2018-01-01
The upper Indus basin (UIB) holds one of the most substantial river systems in the world, contributing roughly half of the available surface water in Pakistan. This water provides necessary support for agriculture, domestic consumption, and hydropower generation; all critical for a stable economy in Pakistan. This study has identified trends, analyzed variability, and assessed changes in both annual and seasonal precipitation during four time series, identified herein as: (first) 1961-2013, (second) 1971-2013, (third) 1981-2013, and (fourth) 1991-2013, over the UIB. This study investigated spatial characteristics of the precipitation time series over 15 weather stations and provides strong evidence of annual precipitation by determining significant trends at 6 stations (Astore, Chilas, Dir, Drosh, Gupis, and Kakul) out of the 15 studied stations, revealing a significant negative trend during the fourth time series. Our study also showed significantly increased precipitation at Bunji, Chitral, and Skardu, whereas such trends at the rest of the stations appear insignificant. Moreover, our study found that seasonal precipitation decreased at some locations (at a high level of significance), as well as periods of scarce precipitation during all four seasons. The observed decreases in precipitation appear stronger and more significant in autumn; having 10 stations exhibiting decreasing precipitation during the fourth time series, with respect to time and space. Furthermore, the observed decreases in precipitation appear robust and more significant for regions at high elevation (>1300 m). This analysis concludes that decreasing precipitation dominated the UIB, both temporally and spatially including in the higher areas.
Nelms, David L.; Messinger, Terence; McCoy, Kurt J.
2015-07-14
As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Program study of the Appalachian Plateaus aquifers, annual and average estimates of water-budget components based on hydrograph separation and precipitation data from parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model (PRISM) were determined at 849 continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations from Mississippi to New York and covered the period of 1900 to 2011. Only complete calendar years (January to December) of streamflow record at each gage were used to determine estimates of base flow, which is that part of streamflow attributed to groundwater discharge; such estimates can serve as a proxy for annual recharge. For each year, estimates of annual base flow, runoff, and base-flow index were determined using computer programs—PART, HYSEP, and BFI—that have automated the separation procedures. These streamflow-hydrograph analysis methods are provided with version 1.0 of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Toolbox, which is a new program that provides graphing, mapping, and analysis capabilities in a Windows environment. Annual values of precipitation were estimated by calculating the average of cell values intercepted by basin boundaries where previously defined in the GAGES–II dataset. Estimates of annual evapotranspiration were then calculated from the difference between precipitation and streamflow.
Prein, Andreas F; Gobiet, Andreas
2017-01-01
Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio-temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan-European data sets and a set that combines eight very high-resolution station-based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post-processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small-scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate-mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments.
Impacts of uncertainties in European gridded precipitation observations on regional climate analysis
Gobiet, Andreas
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Gridded precipitation data sets are frequently used to evaluate climate models or to remove model output biases. Although precipitation data are error prone due to the high spatio‐temporal variability of precipitation and due to considerable measurement errors, relatively few attempts have been made to account for observational uncertainty in model evaluation or in bias correction studies. In this study, we compare three types of European daily data sets featuring two Pan‐European data sets and a set that combines eight very high‐resolution station‐based regional data sets. Furthermore, we investigate seven widely used, larger scale global data sets. Our results demonstrate that the differences between these data sets have the same magnitude as precipitation errors found in regional climate models. Therefore, including observational uncertainties is essential for climate studies, climate model evaluation, and statistical post‐processing. Following our results, we suggest the following guidelines for regional precipitation assessments. (1) Include multiple observational data sets from different sources (e.g. station, satellite, reanalysis based) to estimate observational uncertainties. (2) Use data sets with high station densities to minimize the effect of precipitation undersampling (may induce about 60% error in data sparse regions). The information content of a gridded data set is mainly related to its underlying station density and not to its grid spacing. (3) Consider undercatch errors of up to 80% in high latitudes and mountainous regions. (4) Analyses of small‐scale features and extremes are especially uncertain in gridded data sets. For higher confidence, use climate‐mean and larger scale statistics. In conclusion, neglecting observational uncertainties potentially misguides climate model development and can severely affect the results of climate change impact assessments. PMID:28111497
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lien, Guo-Yuan; Kalnay, Eugenia; Miyoshi, Takemasa; Huffman, George J.
2016-01-01
Assimilation of satellite precipitation data into numerical models presents several difficulties, with two of the most important being the non-Gaussian error distributions associated with precipitation, and large model and observation errors. As a result, improving the model forecast beyond a few hours by assimilating precipitation has been found to be difficult. To identify the challenges and propose practical solutions to assimilation of precipitation, statistics are calculated for global precipitation in a low-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The samples are constructed using the same model with the same forecast period, observation variables, and resolution as in the follow-on GFSTMPA precipitation assimilation experiments presented in the companion paper.The statistical results indicate that the T62 and T126 GFS models generally have positive bias in precipitation compared to the TMPA observations, and that the simulation of the marine stratocumulus precipitation is not realistic in the T62 GFS model. It is necessary to apply to precipitation either the commonly used logarithm transformation or the newly proposed Gaussian transformation to obtain a better relationship between the model and observational precipitation. When the Gaussian transformations are separately applied to the model and observational precipitation, they serve as a bias correction that corrects the amplitude-dependent biases. In addition, using a spatially andor temporally averaged precipitation variable, such as the 6-h accumulated precipitation, should be advantageous for precipitation assimilation.
Rao, Leela E; Allen, Edith B
2010-04-01
Primary production in deserts is limited by soil moisture and N availability, and thus is likely to be influenced by both anthropogenic N deposition and precipitation regimes altered as a consequence of climate change. Invasive annual grasses are particularly responsive to increases in N and water availabilities, which may result in competition with native forb communities. Additionally, conditions favoring increased invasive grass production in arid and semi-arid regions can increase fire risk, negatively impacting woody vegetation that is not adapted to fire. We conducted a seeded garden experiment and a 5-year field fertilization experiment to investigate how winter annual production is altered by increasing N supply under a range of water availabilities. The greatest production of invasive grasses and native forbs in the garden experiment occurred under the highest soil N (inorganic N after fertilization = 2.99 g m(-2)) and highest watering regime, indicating these species are limited by both water and N. A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis on the multi-year field fertilization study showed that winter annual biomass was primarily limited by November-December precipitation. Biomass exceeded the threshold capable of carrying fire when inorganic soil N availability was at least 3.2 g m(-2) in piñon-juniper woodland. Due to water limitation in creosote bush scrub, biomass exceeded the fire threshold only under very wet conditions regardless of soil N status. The CART analyses also revealed that percent cover of invasive grasses and native forbs is primarily dependent on the timing and amount of precipitation and secondarily dependent on soil N and site-specific characteristics. In total, our results indicate that areas of high N deposition will be susceptible to grass invasion, particularly in wet years, potentially reducing native species cover and increasing the risk of fire.
Effects of anthropogenic activity emerging as intensified extreme precipitation over China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Huixin; Chen, Huopo; Wang, Huijun
2017-07-01
This study aims to provide an assessment of the effects of anthropogenic (ANT) forcings and other external factors on observed increases in extreme precipitation over China from 1961 to 2005. Extreme precipitation is represented by the annual maximum 1 day precipitation (RX1D) and the annual maximum 5 day consecutive precipitation (RX5D), and these variables are investigated using observations and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The analyses mainly focus on the probability-based index (PI), which is derived from RX1D and RX5D by fitting generalized extreme value distributions. The results indicate that the simulations that include the ANT forcings provide the best representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation over China. We use the optimal fingerprint method to obtain the univariate and multivariate fingerprints of the responses to external forcings. The results show that only the ANT forcings are detectable at a 90% confidence level, both individually and when natural forcings are considered simultaneously. The impact of the forcing associated with greenhouse gases (GHGs) is also detectable in RX1D, but its effects cannot be separated from those of combinations of forcings that exclude the GHG forcings in the two-signal analyses. Besides, the estimated changes of PI, extreme precipitation, and events with a 20 year return period under nonstationary climate states are potentially attributable to ANT or GHG forcings, and the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature from ANT forcings show agreement with observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Young, C. B.
2002-05-01
Accurate observation of precipitation is critical to the study and modeling of land surface hydrologic processes. NEXRAD radar-based precipitation estimates are increasingly used in field experiments, hydrologic modeling, and water and energy budget studies due to their high spatial and temporal resolution, national coverage, and perceived accuracy. Extensive development and testing of NEXRAD precipitation algorithms have been carried out in the Southern Plains. Previous studies (Young et al. 2000, Young et al. 1999, Smith et al. 1996) indicate that NEXRAD operational products tend to underestimate precipitation at light rain rates. This study investigates the performance of NEXRAD precipitation estimates of high-intensity rainfall, focusing on flood-producing storms in the Missouri River Basin. NEXRAD estimates for these storms are compared with data from multiple raingage networks, including NWS recording and non-recording gages and ALERT raingage data for the Kansas City metropolitan area. Analyses include comparisons of gage and radar data at a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Particular attention is paid to the October 4th, 1998, storm that produced severe flooding in Kansas City. NOTE: The phrase `NEXRAD operational products' in this abstract includes precipitation estimates generated using the Stage III and P1 algorithms. Both of these products estimate hourly accumulations on the (approximately) 4 km HRAP grid.
Temperature and Precipitation trends in Kashmir valley, North Western Himalayas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shafiq, Mifta Ul; Rasool, Rehana; Ahmed, Pervez; Dimri, A. P.
2018-01-01
Climate change has emerged as an important issue ever to confront mankind. This concern emerges from the fact that our day-to-day activities are leading to impacts on the Earth's atmosphere that has the potential to significantly alter the planet's shield and radiation balance. Developing countries particularly whose income is particularly derived from agricultural activities are at the forefront of bearing repercussions due to changing climate. The present study is an effort to analyze the changing trends of precipitation and temperature variables in Kashmir valley along different elevation zones in the north western part of India. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of precipitation, slight change in the temperature and precipitation regime has far reaching environmental and economic consequences. The results from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of the period 1980-2014 reveals that the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980-2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001-2014). During the period 1980-2014, steeper increase, in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature, has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers.
Spatio-temporal changes in precipitation over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, Na; Yue, Tianxiang; Li, Han; Zhang, Lili; Yin, Xiaozhe; Liu, Yi
2018-04-01
Changes in precipitation have a large effect on human society and are of primary importance for many scientific fields such as hydrology, agriculture and eco-environmental sciences. The present study intended to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by using 316 meteorological stations during the period 1965-2014. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) method and High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM) method were applied to produce the precipitation patterns at different time scales. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was applied to analyze the precipitation temporal variations. Results indicated that annual precipitation over the past 50 years appeared to be a non-periodic oscillation phenomenon; the number of wet years was approximately the same as that of dry years; significant positive trends were observed in spring during 1978-2014 and summer during 1996-2014; on the whole, precipitation in May, June, September, and December showed increasing trends at the 95% confidence level; and significant positive trends were also identified in July during 2000-2013 and August during 1997-2010, while slight decreasing trends were observed in February and November. Summer (June, July, and August) was the wettest season, accounting for 68.73% of annual totals in BTH. In general, northeastern BTH received the highest range of precipitation while northwestern area had the lowest. It was found that precipitation variation in this region had been closely linked to latitude, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), distance to the sea, and urbanization rate. In addition, land use played an important role in the decadal precipitation changes in BTH.
Baisden, W Troy; Keller, Elizabeth D; Van Hale, Robert; Frew, Russell D; Wassenaar, Leonard I
2016-01-01
Predictive understanding of precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O in New Zealand faces unique challenges, including high spatial variability in precipitation amounts, alternation between subtropical and sub-Antarctic precipitation sources, and a compressed latitudinal range of 34 to 47 °S. To map the precipitation isotope ratios across New Zealand, three years of integrated monthly precipitation samples were acquired from >50 stations. Conventional mean-annual precipitation δ(2)H and δ(18)O maps were produced by regressions using geographic and annual climate variables. Incomplete data and short-term variation in climate and precipitation sources limited the utility of this approach. We overcome these difficulties by calculating precipitation-weighted monthly climate parameters using national 5-km-gridded daily climate data. This data plus geographic variables were regressed to predict δ(2)H, δ(18)O, and d-excess at all sites. The procedure yields statistically-valid predictions of the isotope composition of precipitation (long-term average root mean square error (RMSE) for δ(18)O = 0.6 ‰; δ(2)H = 5.5 ‰); and monthly RMSE δ(18)O = 1.9 ‰, δ(2)H = 16 ‰. This approach has substantial benefits for studies that require the isotope composition of precipitation during specific time intervals, and may be further improved by comparison to daily and event-based precipitation samples as well as the use of back-trajectory calculations.
Miyoshi, Y.; Oyama, S.; Saito, S.; ...
2015-04-21
Pulsating auroras show quasi-periodic intensity modulations caused by the precipitation of energetic electrons of the order of tens of keV. It is expected theoretically that not only these electrons but also subrelativistic/relativistic electrons precipitate simultaneously into the ionosphere owing to whistler mode wave-particle interactions. The height-resolved electron density profile was observed with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) Tromsø VHF radar on 17 November 2012. Electron density enhancements were clearly identified at altitudes >68 km in association with the pulsating aurora, suggesting precipitation of electrons with a broadband energy range from ~10 keV up to at least 200 keV. The riometermore » and network of subionospheric radio wave observations also showed the energetic electron precipitations during this period. During this period, the footprint of the Van Allen Probe-A satellite was very close to Tromsø and the satellite observed rising tone emissions of the lower band chorus (LBC) waves near the equatorial plane. Considering the observed LBC waves and electrons, we conducted a computer simulation of the wave-particle interactions. This showed simultaneous precipitation of electrons at both tens of keV and a few hundred keV, which is consistent with the energy spectrum estimated by the inversion method using the EISCAT observations. This result revealed that electrons with a wide energy range simultaneously precipitate into the ionosphere in association with the pulsating aurora, providing the evidence that pulsating auroras are caused by whistler chorus waves. We suggest that scattering by propagating whistler simultaneously causes both the precipitations of subrelativistic electrons and the pulsating aurora.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Miyoshi, Y.; Oyama, S.; Saito, S.
Pulsating auroras show quasi-periodic intensity modulations caused by the precipitation of energetic electrons of the order of tens of keV. It is expected theoretically that not only these electrons but also subrelativistic/relativistic electrons precipitate simultaneously into the ionosphere owing to whistler mode wave-particle interactions. The height-resolved electron density profile was observed with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) Tromsø VHF radar on 17 November 2012. Electron density enhancements were clearly identified at altitudes >68 km in association with the pulsating aurora, suggesting precipitation of electrons with a broadband energy range from ~10 keV up to at least 200 keV. The riometermore » and network of subionospheric radio wave observations also showed the energetic electron precipitations during this period. During this period, the footprint of the Van Allen Probe-A satellite was very close to Tromsø and the satellite observed rising tone emissions of the lower band chorus (LBC) waves near the equatorial plane. Considering the observed LBC waves and electrons, we conducted a computer simulation of the wave-particle interactions. This showed simultaneous precipitation of electrons at both tens of keV and a few hundred keV, which is consistent with the energy spectrum estimated by the inversion method using the EISCAT observations. This result revealed that electrons with a wide energy range simultaneously precipitate into the ionosphere in association with the pulsating aurora, providing the evidence that pulsating auroras are caused by whistler chorus waves. We suggest that scattering by propagating whistler simultaneously causes both the precipitations of subrelativistic electrons and the pulsating aurora.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, H.; Xuemei, S.; Yin, Z. Y.; LI, M.
2017-12-01
Past climate is desired for understanding the forcing of climatic changes, for evaluating present conditions in the long-term context of the past, and for the basis of projecting future climate scenarios. By using tree-ring data, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and drought history have been reconstructed back to hundreds or even thousands of years. In China, many dendroclimatological studies have focused on west China, particularly in the environmental sensitive Tibetan Plateau. For example, several millennial-long climatic reconstructions for northeast and east Qaidam basin have been published, and got many new achievements. Whereas, there are few samples collected from the dry area in the south. In this study, we developed a new tree ring-width chronology (from 1403 BC to AD 2015) using samples from eight stands in the southeast of Qaidam basin near Nuomuhong. Response analysis showed significant positive correlations with monthly precipitation in July and September of the previous year, May and June of the current year. Statistically, the chronology was appropriate for reconstructing the annual precipitation of July-June from 1040 BC to AD 2015, and explains 45.5% of variance contained in the instrumental date for the calibration periods 1957-2015. In the past 3056 years of reconstruction, the precipitation has experienced 14 wetter periods and 13 drier ones, and the precipitation increased obviously in 20th century. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there are 2-3, 3-8 and 11 year cycles of variability, which may be associated with ENSO and solar activity. We expect that our reconstruction will improve the understanding of precipitation variation in millennial scale on the southern Qaidam basin.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
A, G.; Velicogna, I.; Kimball, J. S.; Du, J.; Kim, Y.; Njoku, E. G.; Colliander, A.
2016-12-01
We combine soil moisture (SM) data from AMSR-E, AMSR-2 and SMAP, terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from GRACE and precipitation measurements from GPCP to delineate and characterize drought and water supply pattern and its impact on vegetation growth. GRACE TWS provides spatially continuous observations of total terrestrial water storage changes and regional drought extent, persistence and severity, while satellite derived soil moisture estimates provide enhanced delineation of plant-available soil moisture. Together these data provide complementary metrics quantifying available plant water supply and have important implications for water resource management. We use these data to investigate the supply changes from different water components in relation to satellite based vegetation productivity metrics from MODIS, before, during and following the major drought events observed in the continental US during the past 13 years. We observe consistent trends and significant correlations between monthly time series of TWS, SM, and vegetation productivity. In Texas and surrounding semi-arid areas, we find that the spatial pattern of the vegetation-moisture relation follows the gradient in mean annual precipitation. In Texas, GRACE TWS and surface SM show strong coupling and similar characteristic time scale in relatively normal years, while during the 2011 onward hydrological drought, GRACE TWS manifests a longer time scale than that of surface SM, implying stronger drought persistence in deeper water storage. In the Missouri watershed, we find a spatially varying vegetation-moisture relationship where in the drier northwestern portion of the basin, the inter-annual variability in summer vegetation productivity is closely associated with changes in carry-on GRACE TWS from spring, whereas in the moist southeastern portion of the basin, summer precipitation is the dominant controlling factor on vegetation growth.
Regional precipitation-frequency analysis and spatial mapping of 24-hour precipitation for Oregon.
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2008-01-01
For this study regional frequency analyses were conducted for precipitation annual maxima in the state of Oregon for the : 24-hour duration. A total of 693 precipitation gages in Oregon, southern Washington, western Idaho, northern California : and n...
Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena
2014-05-01
The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase
Precipitation characteristics in tropical Africa using satellite and in situ observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dezfuli, A. K.; Ichoku, I.; Huffman, G. J.; Mohr, K. I.
2017-12-01
Tropical Africa receives nearly all its precipitation as a result of convection. The characteristics of rain-producing systems in this region have not been well-understood, despite their crucial role in regional and global circulation. This is mainly due to the lack of in situ observations. Here, we have used precipitation records from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) ground-based gauge network to improve our knowledge about the rainfall systems in the region, and to validate the recently-released IMERG precipitation product based on satellite observations from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) constellation. The high temporal resolution of the gauge data has allowed us to identify three classes of rain events based on their duration and intensity. The contribution of each class to the total rainfall and the favorable surface atmospheric conditions for each class have been examined. As IMERG aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and provide higher resolution data, continent-wide comparisons are made between these two products. Due to its improved temporal resolution, IMERG shows some advantages over TMPA in capturing the diurnal cycle and propagation of the meso-scale convective systems. However, the performance of the two satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. The results of this study serve as a basis for our ongoing work on the impacts of biomass burning on precipitation processes in Africa.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Fengrui; Gao, Yongqi
2018-01-01
Many studies have reported the excellent ability of high-resolution satellite precipitation products (0.25° or finer) to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, it is not known whether the precipitation trends derived from them are reliable. For the first time, we have evaluated the annual and seasonal precipitation trends from two typical sources of high-resolution satellite-gauge products, TRMM 3B43 and PERSIANN-CDR, using rain gauge observations over China, and they were also compared with those from gauge-only products (0.25° and 0.5° precipitation products, hereafter called CN25 and CN50). The evaluation focused mainly on the magnitude, significance, sign, and relative order of the precipitation trends, and was conducted at gridded and regional scales. The following results were obtained: (1) at the gridded scale, neither satellite-gauge products precisely measure the magnitude of precipitation trends but they do reproduce their sign and relative order; regarding capturing the significance of trends, they exhibit relatively acceptable performance only over regions with a sufficient amount of significant precipitation trends; (2) at the regional scale, both satellite-gauge products generally provide reliable precipitation trends, although they do not reproduce the magnitude of trends in winter precipitation; and (3) overall, CN50 and TRMM 3B43 outperform others in reproducing all four aspects of the precipitation trends. Compared with CN25, PERSIANN-CDR performs better in determining the magnitude of precipitation trends but marginally worse in reproducing their sign and relative order; moreover, both of them are at a level in capturing the significance of precipitation trends.
Satellite and ground based observations of a large-scale electron precipitation event
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gamble, R. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Clilverd, M.; Thomson, N. R.; Ulich, T.; Parrot, M.; Sauvaud, J.; Berthelier, J.
2010-12-01
In order to describe how geomagnetic storms couple to the upper atmosphere, and hence to atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, measurements are required of energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere. However, satellite observations are currently poorly suited to providing measurements of energetic and relativistic electron precipitation. The AARDDVARK network (Antarctic-Arctic Radiation-belt (Dynamic) Deposition - VLF Atmospheric Research Konsortium) provides continuous long-range observations of ionisation levels from ~30-85 km altitude, with the goal of increasing the understanding of energy coupling between the Earth's atmosphere, Sun, and Space. In this study we combine AARDDVARK subionospheric VLF measurements with DEMETER electron spectra using modelling techniques to study >100 keV energetic and relativistic electron precipitation into the atmosphere for the 24-hour period beginning 0600UT 19 January during the 17-21 January 2005 geomagnetic storms. The study augments large-scale regional observations using VLF measurements of multiple subionospheric paths to our receiver at Sodankylä, Finland (67.4°N, 26.6°E, L=5.31), combined with detailed in situ measurements from the DEMETER satellite to allow the spatial extent, flux, and energy distribution of the precipitation to be determined. In contrast to other satellites, DEMETER’s electron spectrometer has excellent energy resolution. The DEMETER-measured precipitation spectrum is used to infer an altered electron density profile, modelled using a simple ionospheric electron model. This altered electron profile is then used in a subionospheric VLF model and compared with AARDDVARK VLF results. Matching model results with subionospheric VLF measurements allows calculation of both the intensity and geographic extent (in L) of the precipitation region required to produce such an effect. We find that a flux of 7000 elec.cm-2s-1 >100 keV electrons precipitates into the atmosphere over an L range of 3
Regional hydrologic response of loblolly pine to air temperature and precipitation changes
Steven G. McNulty; James M. Vose; Wayne T. Swank
1997-01-01
Large deviations in average annual air temperatures and total annual precipitation were observed across the Southern United States during the last 50 years, and these fluctuations could become even larger during the next century. The authors used PnET-IIS, a monthly time-step forest process model that uses soil, vegetation, and climate inputs to assess the influence of...
Annual plants change in size over a century of observations.
Leger, Elizabeth A
2013-07-01
Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by measuring specimens preserved on herbarium sheets collected between 1893 and 2011. I asked how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the year of collection affected plant height, leaf size, and flower number, and asked whether changes in climate resulted in decreasing sizes for seven annual forbs. Species had contrasting responses to climate factors, and would not necessarily be expected to respond in parallel to climatic shifts. There were generally positive relationships between plant size and increased minimum and maximum temperatures, which would have been predicted to lead to small increases in plant sizes over the observation period. While one species increased in size and flower number over the observation period, five of the seven species decreased in plant height, four of these decreased in leaf size, and one species also decreased in flower production. One species showed no change. The mechanisms behind these size changes are unknown, and the limited data available on these species (germination timing, area of occupancy, relative abundance) did not explain why some species shrank while others grew or did not change in size over time. These results show that multiple annual forbs are decreasing in size, but that even within the same functional group, species may have contrasting responses to similar environmental stimuli. Changes in plant size could have cascading effects on other members of these communities, and differential responses to directional change may change the composition of plant communities over time. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Chylek, Petr; Dubey, Manvendra; Hengartner, Nicholas
Here, we analyze the past (1900–2015) temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in anymore » region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. This analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.« less
Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes over the Nine US Climate Regions
Chylek, Petr; Dubey, Manvendra; Hengartner, Nicholas; ...
2017-10-25
Here, we analyze the past (1900–2015) temperature and precipitation changes in nine separate US climate regions. We find that the temperature increased in a statistically significant (95% confidence level equivalent to alpha level of 0.05) manner in all of these regions. However, the variability in the observed precipitation was much more complex. In the eastern US (east of Rocky Mountains), the precipitation increased in all five climate regions and the increase was statistically significant in three of them. In contract, in the western US, the precipitation increased in two regions and decreased in two with no statistical significance in anymore » region. The CMIP5 climate models (an ensemble mean) were not able to capture properly either the large precipitation differences between the eastern and the western US, or the changes of precipitation between 1900 and 2015 in eastern US. The statistical regression model explains the differences between the eastern and western US precipitation as results of different significant predictors. The anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol (GHGA) are the major forcing of the precipitation in the eastern part of US, while the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has the major influence on precipitation in the western part of the US. This analysis suggests that the precipitation over the eastern US increased at an approximate rate of 6.7%/K, in agreement with the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, while the precipitation of the western US was approximately constant, independent of the temperature. Future precipitation over the western part of the US will depend on the behavior of the PDO, and how it (PDO) may be affected by future warming. Low hydrological sensitivity (percent increase of precipitation per one K of warming) projected by the CMIP5 models for the eastern US suggests either an underestimate of future precipitation or an overestimate of future warming.« less
Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) for remote observation of precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Galliano, J. A.; Platt, R. H.
1990-01-01
The design, development, and tests of the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) operating in the 10 to 85 GHz range specifically for precipitation retrieval and mesoscale storm system studies from a high altitude aircraft platform (i.e., ER-2) are described. The primary goals of AMPR are the exploitation of the scattering signal of precipitation at frequencies near 10, 19, 37, and 85 GHz together to unambiguously retrieve precipitation and storm structure and intensity information in support of proposed and planned space sensors in geostationary and low earth orbit, as well as storm-related field experiments. The development of AMPR will have an important impact on the interpretation of microwave radiances for rain retrievals over both land and ocean for the following reasons: (1) A scanning instrument, such as AMPR, will allow the unambiguous detection and analysis of features in two dimensional space, allowing an improved interpretation of signals in terms of cloud features, and microphysical and radiative processes; (2) AMPR will offer more accurate comparisons with ground-based radar data by feature matching since the navigation of the ER-2 platform can be expected to drift 3 to 4 km per hour of flight time; and (3) AMPR will allow underflights of the SSM/I satellite instrument with enough spatial coverage at the same frequencies to make meaningful comparisons of the data for precipitation studies.
Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Merriman, Katherine R.
2014-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the
J. Alan Yeakley; Ron A. Moen; David D. Breshears; Martha K. Nungesser
1994-01-01
Ecosystem models typically use input temperature and precipitation data generated stochastically from weather station means and variances. Although the weather station data are based on measurements taken over a few decades, model simulations are usually on the order of centuries. Consequently, observed periodicities in temperature and precipitation at the continental...
Comparison between weather station data in south-eastern Italy and CRU precipitation datasets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miglietta, D.
2009-04-01
Monthly precipitation data in south-eastern Italy from 1920 to 2005 have been extensively analyzed. Data were collected in almost 200 weather stations located 10-20km apart from each other and almost uniformly distributed in Puglia and Basilicata regions. Apart from few years around world war II, time series are mostly complete and allow a reliable reconstruction of climate variability in the considered region. Statistically significant trends have been studied by applying the Mann-Kendall test to annual, seasonal and monthly values. A comparison has been made between observations and precipitation data given by the Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia, with both low (30') and high (10') space resolution grid. In particular, rainfall records, time series behaviors and annual cycles at each station have been compared to the corresponding CRU data. CRU time series show a large negative trend for winter since 1970. Trend is not significant if the whole 20th century is considered (both for the whole year and for winter only). This might be considered as an evidence of recent acceleration towards increasingly dry conditions. However correlation between CRU data and observations is not very high and large percent errors are present mainly in the mountains regions, where observations show a large annual cycle, with intense precipitation in winter, which is not present in CRU data. To identify trends, therefore observed data are needed, even at monthly scale. In particular observations confirm the overall trend, but also indicate large spatial variability, with locations where precipitation has even increased since 1970. Daily precipitation data coming from a subset of weather stations have also been studied for the same time period. The distributions of maximum annual rainfalls, wet spells and dry spells were analyzed for each station, together with their time series. The tools of statistical analysis of extremes have been used in order to evaluate
Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H
2017-01-01
Convective precipitation-localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent-is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.
Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bolvin, David T.; Adler, Robert G.; Nelkin, Eric J.; Poutiainen, Jani
2008-01-01
It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.
1999-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve these fields in reanalyses. The DAO has developed a "1+1"D procedure to assimilate 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS. The "1+1" designation refers to one spatial dimension plus one temporal dimension. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the satellite-retrieved rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. The control variables are analysis increments of moisture within the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) framework of the GEOS DAS. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but differs in its choice of the control variable. Instead of estimating the initial condition at the beginning of the assimilation cycle, it estimates the constant IAU forcing applied over a 6-hr assimilation cycle. In doing so, it imposes the forecast model as a weak constraint in a manner similar to the variational continuous assimilation techniques. We present results from an experiment in which the observed rain rate and TPW are assumed to be "perfect". They show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I-derived surface precipitation and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters directly linked to convective activities such as clouds, the
Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Liu, H.; Randerson, J.T.; Yu, G.; Tieszen, L.L.
2010-01-01
Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of water loss from terrestrial ecosystems; however, large uncertainties exist when estimating the temporal and spatial variations of ET because of concurrent shifts in the magnitude and seasonal distribution of precipitation as well as differences in the response of ecosystem ET to environmental variabilities. In this study, we examined the impacts of precipitation seasonality and ecosystem types on ET quantified by eddy covariance towers from 2002 to 2004 in three ecosystems (grassland, deciduous broadleaf forest, and evergreen needleleaf forest) in the Yukon River Basin, Alaska. The annual precipitation changed greatly in both magnitude and seasonal distribution through the three investigated years. Observations and model results showed that ET was more sensitive to precipitation scarcity in the early growing season than in the late growing season, which was the direct result of different responses of ET components to precipitation in different seasons. The results demonstrated the importance of seasonal variations of precipitation in regulating annual ET and overshadowing the function of annual precipitation. Comparison of ET among ecosystems over the growing season indicated that ET was largest in deciduous broadleaf, intermediate in evergreen needleleaf, and lowest in the grassland ecosystem. These ecosystem differences in ET were related to differences in successional stages and physiological responses.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henn, Brian; Clark, Martyn P.; Kavetski, Dmitri; Newman, Andrew J.; Hughes, Mimi; McGurk, Bruce; Lundquist, Jessica D.
2018-01-01
Given uncertainty in precipitation gauge-based gridded datasets over complex terrain, we use multiple streamflow observations as an additional source of information about precipitation, in order to identify spatial and temporal differences between a gridded precipitation dataset and precipitation inferred from streamflow. We test whether gridded datasets capture across-crest and regional spatial patterns of variability, as well as year-to-year variability and trends in precipitation, in comparison to precipitation inferred from streamflow. We use a Bayesian model calibration routine with multiple lumped hydrologic model structures to infer the most likely basin-mean, water-year total precipitation for 56 basins with long-term (>30 year) streamflow records in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. We compare basin-mean precipitation derived from this approach with basin-mean precipitation from a precipitation gauge-based, 1/16° gridded dataset that has been used to simulate and evaluate trends in Western United States streamflow and snowpack over the 20th century. We find that the long-term average spatial patterns differ: in particular, there is less precipitation in the gridded dataset in higher-elevation basins whose aspect faces prevailing cool-season winds, as compared to precipitation inferred from streamflow. In a few years and basins, there is less gridded precipitation than there is observed streamflow. Lower-elevation, southern, and east-of-crest basins show better agreement between gridded and inferred precipitation. Implied actual evapotranspiration (calculated as precipitation minus streamflow) then also varies between the streamflow-based estimates and the gridded dataset. Absolute uncertainty in precipitation inferred from streamflow is substantial, but the signal of basin-to-basin and year-to-year differences are likely more robust. The findings suggest that considering streamflow when spatially distributing precipitation in complex terrain
Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait
2018-01-01
The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.
2018-04-01
Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.
Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J.; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H.
2017-01-01
Convective precipitation—localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent—is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia. PMID:28138545
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DU, X.; Hendy, I. L.; Hinnov, L.; Brown, E. T.; Schimmelmann, A.; Pak, D. K.
2017-12-01
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a major influence on Southern California's hydroclimate as demonstrated by both historical observations and model simulations. Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) off Southern California preserves a unique varved (i.e. annually laminated) marine sedimentary archive of modern and Holocene hydroclimate variability, notably including the transition from the regionally dry Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the wetter Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present sub-annually resolved scanning XRF elemental counts for the last 2,000 years in SBB from core SPR0901-03KC. Titanium (associated with silicate minerals) is delivered more efficiently to SBB sediments during times of enhanced river flow and in the Mediterranean climate of Southern California, river flow only occurs after precipitation. The Ti record suggests that the precipitation frequency was reduced during the MCA except for a pluvial episode at CE 1075-1121, but increased during the LIA. Time series analysis of Ti counts indicates ENSO variability robustly increased during the intervals CE 450-520, 650-720, 980-1150, 1380-1550 and 1720-1750, and experienced relatively quiescent intervals between CE 50-150, 250-400, 550-650, 750-950, 1150-1280 and 1580-1620. Generally the LIA in Southern California is characterized by more active ENSO variability with long periodicities (4-7 yr) and multi-decadal variability (54 yr). MCA drought episodes were associated with less active ENSO. Active ENSO variability in Southern California during the last 2,000 years coincided with reconstructed southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) suggesting the ITCZ may play a role in the waxing and waning of ENSO teleconnections between the central Pacific and the west coast of North America.
Xu, Mingjie; Wang, Huimin; Wen, Xuefa; Zhang, Tao; Di, Yuebao; Wang, Yidong; Wang, Jianlei; Cheng, Chuanpeng; Zhang, Wenjiang
2017-08-30
Deep understanding of the effects of precipitation on carbon budgets is essential to assess the carbon balance accurately and can help predict potential variation within the global change context. Therefore, we addressed this issue by analyzing twelve years (2003-2014) of observations of carbon fluxes and their corresponding temperature and precipitation data in a subtropical coniferous plantation at the Qianyanzhou (QYZ) site, southern China. During the observation years, this coniferous ecosystem experienced four cold springs whose effects on the carbon budgets were relatively clear based on previous studies. To unravel the effects of temperature and precipitation, the effects of autumn precipitation were examined by grouping the data into two pools based on whether the years experienced cold springs. The results indicated that precipitation in autumn can accelerate the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the following year. Meanwhile, divergent effects of precipitation on ecosystem respiration (Re) were found. Autumn precipitation was found to enhance Re in normal years but the same regulation was not found in the cold-spring years. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of carbon balance in global climate change projections, the effects of precipitation must be considered to better constrain the uncertainties associated with the estimation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Miyoshi, Y.; Kurita, S.; Saito, S.; Shinohara, I.; Kasahara, Y.; Matsuda, S.; Kasaba, Y.; Yagitani, S.; Kojima, H.; Hikishima, M.; Tsuchiya, F.; Kumamoto, A.; Katoh, Y.; Matsuoka, A.; Higashio, N.; Mitani, T.; Takashima, T.; Kasahara, S.; Yokota, S.; Asamura, K.; Kazama, Y.; Wang, S. Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Oyama, S. I.; Ogawa, Y.; Hosokawa, K.; Kataoka, R.; Kero, A.; Hori, T.; Turunen, E. S.; Shoji, M.; Teramoto, M.; Chang, T. F.
2017-12-01
The pulsating aurora is caused by intermittent precipitations of a few - 10s keV electrons, and it is expected that the pitch angle scattering by chorus waves at the magnetosphere is a primary process to cause the pulsating aurora. The Arase satellite that was launched in December, 2016 has obtained comprehensive data sets for plasma/particles and fields/waves. In March and April, 2017, a series of campaign observation focused on the chorus-wave particle interactions from conjugate observations from Arase and ground-based observations, and the pulsating aurora as a manifest of chorus-wave particle ineteractions was the important observation subject. During the campaign observations, good conjugate observations were realized between Arase and ground-based observations in Scandinavia. Associated with the pulsating aurora, the EISCAT VHF incoherent scatter radar at Tromso, Norway observed strong ionization in lower ionosphere. During the period, the Arase satellite observed intense chorus waves near the magnetic equator for a few hours, suggesting that strong pitch angle scattering took place. From the conjugate observations from Arase and ground-based observations, we discuss how chorus waves cause strong precipitation of electrons from plasma sheet and radiation belts.
Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought
Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.; ...
2018-09-01
Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less
Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stuart-Haëntjens, Ellen; De Boeck, Hans J.; Lemoine, Nathan P.
Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitationmore » (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought – a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.« less
Trends in monthly precipitation over the northwest of Iran (NWI)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asakereh, Hossein
2017-10-01
Increasing global temperatures during the last century have had their own effects on other climatic conditions, particularly on precipitation characteristics. This study was meant to investigate the spatial and temporal monthly trends of precipitation using the least square error (LSE) approach for the northwest of Iran (NWI). To this end, a database was obtained from 250 measuring stations uniformly scattered all over NWI from 1961 to 2010. The spatial average of annual precipitation in NWI during the period of study was approximately 220.9-726.7 mm. The annual precipitation decreased from southwest to northeast, while the large amount of precipitation was concentrated in the south-west and in the mountainous areas. All over NWI, the maximum and minimum precipitation records occurred from March to May and July to September, respectively. The coefficient of variation (CV) is greater than 44 % in all of NWI and may reach over 76 % in many places. The greatest range of CV, for instance, occurred during July. The spatial variability of precipitation was consistent with a tempo-spatial pattern of precipitation trends. There was a considerable difference between the amounts of change during the months, and the negative trends were mainly attributed to areas concentrated in eastern and southern parts of NWI far from the western mountain ranges. Moreover, limited areas with positive precipitation trends can be found in very small and isolated regions. This is observable particularly in the eastern half of NWI, which is mostly located far from Westerlies. On the other hand, seasonal precipitation trends indicated a slight decrease during winter and spring and a slight increase during summer and autumn. Consequently, there were major changes in average precipitation that occurred negatively in the area under study during the observation period. This finding is in agreement with those findings by recent studies which revealed a decreasing trend of around 2 mm/year over NWI
An intercomparison of observational precipitation data sets over Northwest India during winter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nageswararao, M. M.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.; Dimri, A. P.
2018-04-01
Winter (DJF) precipitation over Northwest India (NWI) is very important for the cultivation of Rabi crops. Thus, an accurate estimation of high-resolution observations, evaluation of high-resolution numerical models, and understanding the local variability trends are essential. The objective of this study is to verify the quality of a new high spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded daily precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD1) over NWI during winter. An intercomparison with four existing precipitation data sets at 0.5° × 0.5° of IMD (IMD2), 1° × 1° of IMD (IMD3), 0.25° × 0.25° of APHRODITE (APRD1), and 0.5° × 0.5° of APHRODITE (APRD1) resolution during a common period of 1971-2003 is done. The evaluation of data quality of these five data sets against available 26 station observations is carried out, and the results clearly indicate that all the five data sets reasonably agreed with the station observation. However, the errors are relatively more in all the five data sets over Jammu and Kashmir-related four stations (Srinagar, Drass, Banihal top, and Dawar), while these errors are less in the other stations. It may be due to the lack of station observations over the region. The quality of IMD1 data set over NWI for winter precipitation is reasonably well than the other data sets. The intercomparison analysis suggests that the climatological mean, interannual variability, and coefficient of variation from IMD1 are similar with other data sets. Further, the analysis extended to the India meteorological subdivisions over the region. This analysis indicates overestimation in IMD3 and underestimation in APRD1 and APRD2 over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and NWI as a whole, whereas IMD2 is closer to IMD1. Moreover, all the five data sets are highly correlated (>0.5) among them at 99.9% confidence level for all subdivisions. It is remarkably noticed that multicategorical (light precipitation, moderate precipitation, heavy
Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard P.; Huffman, George J.
2013-01-01
Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.
Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naegele, Alexandra Claire
The first part of this study focuses on the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle as seen in observations. In the global energy budget, the atmospheric radiative cooling (ARC) is approximately balanced by latent heating, but on regional scales, the ARC and precipitation are inversely related. We use precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project and radiative flux data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to investigate the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle and how it changes in both space and time. We find that the effect of clouds is to decrease the ARC in the tropics, and to increase the ARC in middle and higher latitudes. We find that, spatially, precipitation and the ARC are negatively correlated in the tropics, and positively correlated in middle and higher latitudes. In terms of the global mean, the precipitation rate and the ARC are temporally out-of-phase during the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the second part of this study, we use a cloud-resolving model to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between precipitation and the ARC. In particular, we explore how the relationship between precipitation and the ARC is affected by convective aggregation, in which the convective activity is confined to a small portion of the domain that is surrounded by a much larger region of dry, subsiding air. We investigate the responses of the ARC and precipitation rate to changes in the sea surface temperature (SST), domain size, and microphysics parameterization. Both fields increase with increasing SST and the use of 2-moment microphysics. The precipitation and ARC show evidence of convective aggregation, and in the domain average, both fields increase as a result. While running these sensitivity tests, we observed a pulsation in the convective precipitation rate, once aggregation had occurred. The period of the pulsation is on the order of ten simulated hours for a domain size of 768 km
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Faulk, Sean P.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Moon, Seulgi; Lora, Juan Manuel
2016-10-01
Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.
Estimating Precipitation Input to a Watershed by Combining Gauge and Radar Derived Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ercan, M. B.; Goodall, J. L.
2011-12-01
One challenge in creating an accurate watershed model is obtaining estimates of precipitation intensity over the watershed area. While precipitation measurements are generally available from gauging stations and radar instruments, both of these approaches for measuring precipitation have strengths and weakness. A typical way of addressing this challenge is to use gauged precipitation estimates to calibrate radar based estimates, however this study proposes a slightly different approach in which the optimal daily precipitation value is selected from either the gauged or the radar estimates based on the observed streamflow for that day. Our proposed approach is perhaps most relevant for cases of modeling watersheds that do not have a nearby precipitation gauge, or for regions that experience convective storms that are often highly spatially variable. Using the Eno River watershed located in Orange County, NC, three different precipitation datasets were created to predict streamflow at the watershed outlet for the time period 2005-2010 using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): (1) estimates based on only precipitation gauging stations, (2) estimates based only on gauged-corrected radar observations, and (3) the combination of precipitation estimates from the gauge and radar data determined using our proposed approach. The results show that the combined precipitation approach significantly improves streamflow predictions (Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient, E = 0.66) when compared to the gauged estimates alone (E = 0.47) and the radar based estimates alone (E = 0.45). Our study was limited to one watershed, therefore additional studies are needed to control for factors such as climate, ecology, and hydrogeology that will likely influence the results of the analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silvia, Devin
2015-10-01
Understanding the complex nature of the circumgalactic medium (CGM) has been a target of numerous research efforts, both observationally and theoretically. While significant progress has been made in probing the structure and thermodynamic state of the CGM through the detection of metal line absorption systems using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), a complete picture of the physical mechanisms that produce the observed properties does not yet exist. Recent theoretical work has suggested that a delicate balance between radiative cooling and thermal feedback detemines whether or not the CGM is capable of sustaining a stable, multiphase medium that would allow cool clouds to precipitate out of the galactic halo. This new theoretical framework may provide the explanation for many observational results. In this project, we will detemine whether or not this elegant and simple precipitation model can be supported by physics-rich numerical simulations of isolated galaxies. We will use our simulations to gain a deeper understanding of the precipitation model and explore the ionization and temperature stucture of the CGM. Our analysis will include the comparison of realistic synthetic spectra to those produced by HST, using the newly-developed Trident software package.
Carbon economics of LAI drive photosynthesis patterns across an Amazonian precipitation gradient
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flack, Sophie; Williams, Mathew; Meir, Patrick; Malhi, Yadvinder
2017-04-01
The Amazon rainforest is an integral part of the terrestrial carbon cycle, yet whilst the physiological response of its plants to water availability is increasingly well quantified, constraints to photosynthesis through adaptive response to precipitation regime have received little attention. We use the Soil Plant Atmosphere model to apportion variation in photosynthesis to individual drivers for plots with detailed measurements of carbon cycling, leaf traits and canopy properties, along an Amazonian mean annual precipitation (MAP) gradient. We hypothesised that leaf area index (LAI) would be the principal driver of variation in photosynthesis. Differences in LAI are predicted to result from economic factors; plants balance the carbon cost of leaf construction and maintenance with assimilation potential, to maximise canopy carbon export. Model analysis showed that LAI was the primary driver of differences in GPP along the precipitation gradient, accounting for 49% of observed variation. Meteorology accounted for 19%, whilst plant traits accounted for only 5%. To explain the observed spatial trends in LAI we undertook model experiments. For each plot the carbon budget was quantified iteratively using the field measured LAI time-series of the other plots, keeping meteorology, soil and plant traits constant. The mean annual LAI achieving maximum photosynthesis and net canopy carbon export increased with MAP, reflecting observed LAI trends. At the driest site, alternative, higher LAI strategies were unsustainable. The carbon cost of leaf construction and maintenance was disproportional to GPP achieved. At high MAP, increased foliar carbon costs were remunerative and GPP was maximised by high LAI. Our evidence therefore suggests that observed LAI trends across the precipitation gradient are driven by carbon economics. Forests LAI response to temporal changes in precipitation reflects trends observed across spatial gradients, identifying LAI as a key mechanism for plant
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suzuki, Kenji; Nakagawa, Katsuhiro; Kawano, Tetsuya; Mori, Shuichi; Katsumata, Masaki; Yoneyama, Kunio
2017-04-01
During November-December 2015, as a pilot study of the Years of the Maritime and Continent (YMC), a campaign observation over the southwestern coastal land and adjacent sea of Sumatera Island, Indonesia was carried out to examine land-ocean coupling processes in mechanisms of coastal heavy rain. Our videosonde observations were conducted as a part of this campaign for the better understandings of microphysical features in tropical precipitating clouds developed over the Sumatera Island. Videosonde is one of strong tools to measure hydrometeors in clouds directly. It is a balloon-borne radiosonde that acquires images of precipitation particles via a CCD camera. The system has a stroboscopic illumination that provides information on particle size and shape. One of the advantages for the videosonde is to capture images of precipitation particles as they are in the air because the videosonde can obtain particle images without contact. Recorded precipitation particles are classified as raindrops, frozen drops (hail), graupel, ice crystals, or snowflakes on the basis of transparency and shape. Videosondes were launched from BMKG Bengkulu weather station (3.86°S,102.3°E). After the launch of a videosonde, the Range Height Indicator (RHI) scans by a C-band dual-polarimetric radar installed on R/V Mirai, which was approximately 50 km off Sumatera Island, were continuously performed, targeting the videosonde in the precipitating cloud. Eighteen videosondes were launched into various types of tropical precipitating clouds during the Pre-YMC campaign.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Slinskey, E. A.; Loikith, P. C.; Waliser, D. E.; Goodman, A.
2017-12-01
Extreme precipitation events are associated with numerous societal and environmental impacts. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter precipitation intensity across portions of the Continental United States (CONUS). Therefore, a spatial understanding and intuitive means of monitoring extreme precipitation over time is critical. Towards this end, we apply an event-based indicator, developed as a part of NASA's support of the ongoing efforts of the US National Climate Assessment, which assigns categories to extreme precipitation events based on 3-day storm totals as a basis for dataset intercomparison. To assess observational uncertainty across a wide range of historical precipitation measurement approaches, we intercompare in situ station data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), satellite-derived precipitation data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), gridded in situ station data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), global reanalysis from NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis version 2 (MERRA 2), and regional reanalysis with gauge data assimilation from NCEP's North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Results suggest considerable variability across the five-dataset suite in the frequency, spatial extent, and magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Consistent with expectations, higher resolution datasets were found to resemble station data best and capture a greater frequency of high-end extreme events relative to lower spatial resolution datasets. The degree of dataset agreement varies regionally, however all datasets successfully capture the seasonal cycle of precipitation extremes across the CONUS. These intercomparison results provide additional insight about observational uncertainty and the ability of a range of precipitation measurement and analysis products to capture extreme precipitation event climatology. While the event category threshold is fixed
On the relationship between Indian Ocean Dipole events and the precipitation of Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hussain, Mian Sabir; Kim, Sunyoung; Lee, Seungho
2017-10-01
This study investigated the relationship between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the precipitation of Pakistan using data for the period of 1958-2010. The long-term evolution of the IOD index did not show interannual patterns similar to those of the annual precipitation of Pakistan. No linkage between the co-occurring trends of the IOD and the precipitation was traced during the period of investigation. The correlation between the IOD and the precipitation of Pakistan indicated a noteworthy impact over the monsoonal regions, especially the coastal area and the western region of Pakistan, which showed a significant positive correlation between the IOD index and annual and summer precipitation. A significant positive relationship was also revealed between the precipitation of the Balochistan Plateau and the IOD index for the summer monsoon season. No connection was observed between the IOD and the precipitation of the northern regions and the upper Indus Plain of Pakistan. Positive phases of the IOD have been noted to occur along with surplus precipitation during active monsoon conditions. The southeasterly wind moves from the Arabian Sea and transports additional moisture from the Arabian Sea to the coastal and southwestern parts of Pakistan during positive phases of the IOD.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Qiang; Xiao, Mingzhong; Singh, Vijay P.; Xu, Chong-Yu; Li, Jianfeng
2015-06-01
In this study, we thoroughly analyzed spatial and temporal distributions of runoff and their relation with precipitation changes based on monthly runoff dataset at 25 hydrological stations and monthly precipitation at 127 stations in Guangdong Province, south China. Trends of the runoff and precipitation are detected using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. Correlations between runoff and precipitation are tested using Spearman's and Pearson's correlation coefficients. The results indicate that: (1) annual maximum monthly runoff is mainly in decreasing tendency and significant increasing annual minimum monthly runoff is observed in the northern and eastern Guangdong Province. In addition, annual mean runoff is observed to be increasing at the stations located in the West and North Rivers and the coastal region; (2) analysis of seasonal runoff variations indicates increasing runoff in spring, autumn and winter. Wherein, significant increase of runoff is found at 8 stations and only 3 stations are dominated by decreasing runoff in winter; (3) runoff changes of the Guangdong Province are mainly the results of precipitation changes. The Guangdong Province is wetter in winter, spring and autumn. Summer is coming to be drier as reflected by decreasing runoff in the season; (4) both precipitation change and water reservoirs also play important roles in the increasing of annual minimum monthly streamflow. Seasonal shifts of runoff variations may pose new challenges for the water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities.
Are weather models better than gridded observations for precipitation in the mountains? (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gutmann, E. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Ikeda, K.; Clark, M. P.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.
2013-12-01
Mountain snowpack is a critical storage component in the water cycle, and it provides drinking water for tens of millions of people in the Western US alone. This water store is susceptible to climate change both because warming temperatures are likely to lead to earlier melt and a temporal shift of the hydrograph, and because changing atmospheric conditions are likely to change the precipitation patterns that produce the snowpack. Current measurements of snowfall in complex terrain are limited in number due in part to the logistics of installing equipment in complex terrain. We show that this limitation leads to statistical artifacts in gridded observations of current climate including errors in precipitation season totals of a factor of two or more, increases in wet day fraction, and decreases in storm intensity. In contrast, a high-resolution numerical weather model (WRF) is able to reproduce observed precipitation patterns, leading to confidence in its predictions for areas without measurements and new observations support this. Running WRF for a future climate scenario shows substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation in the mountains related to the physics of hydrometeor production and detrainment that are not captured by statistical downscaling products. The stationarity in statistical downscaling products is likely to lead to important errors in our estimation of future precipitation in complex terrain.
Should we care about diurnal temperatures when calculating the precipitation isotope thermometer?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vachon, R.; Kloeckner, D.
2008-12-01
Long records of the concentrations of stable isotopes of precipitation (SIPs) have long been used as proxies for regional and global climates for periods when meteorological measurements were not made. SIPs' longstanding correlation to local surface temperatures (in many locations) and molecular thermal dynamics have lead to many interpretations of variability in SIPs to be changes in local temperatures. In order to create accurate temperature-SIP transfer functions one needs to link modern SIP concentrations to temperatures of when precipitation happened. A well-sited example of complexities in the temperature-SIP relationships - For simplicity one may assume that annual precipitation occurred at the same time of year throughout a long SIP archive, however, it is possible that the timing of precipitation actually shifted from summer to winter months. If the temperature difference between the seasons is large the SIP archive could be wrongly interpreted as a several degree cooling in average annual temperatures. Temperature changes similar in magnitude to seasonal fluctuations are also observed throughout a given day. What would happen if precipitation shifted from mid-afternoon to nighttime events? This line of thinking implies that diurnal effects plausibly should be considered when calculating SIP-transfer functions. This is particularly convincing when precipitation for a region is powered by middle of the day (summer) heat causing convective precipitation or evening cooling increasing relative humidities near the land's surface. This study examines both theoretical and observed (5 locations within North America) surface temperatures at the time of precipitation throughout a day and estimates diurnal effects on SIP-transfer functions. Ultimately, one must ask, how high does condensation form, and what are daily temperature patterns at those heights?
Long-term variability and changes of the precipitation regime in Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho
2014-05-01
This paper presents an examination of precipitation amounts in Pakistan. For this purpose, the annual precipitation and the annual number of precipitation days have been calculated, and a study aimed at investigating precipitation intensity and decadal changes was conducted. Precipitation trends have been calculated using a simple linear regression method and Kendall's tau-based test. To assess stability and differences, a 10-year span was determined for each precipitation region for the period of 1951-2010. This study focused on the three CLINO (Climatological Normal) periods, namely 1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010 (the latest global standard normal period). Results confirm the gradual increase of annual precipitation in southwestern coastal areas of Pakistan and Cholistan desert. With regard to annual number of precipitation days, in the central part of the country negative trends were evident for wet days (with precipitation ≧ 0.1 mm), while the number of rainy days (with precipitation ≧ 1 mm) displayed a prominent positive trend. The series of the precipitation intensity gives evidence of a minor decrease in the Baluchistan Plateau, sub-Himalayas, and Potwar Plateau during the study period. Examination of secular trends evidenced that the Murree hills, the upper Indus plain, and the northwestern Baluchistan plateau have had shifts in their precipitation regime towards drier conditions, while the central plain, the northwestern mountains, and the southern part of the country are shifting in their precipitation regime towards wetter conditions. Description among the means of precipitation amounts suggests that "normal" precipitation data for various national projects should be calculated for the last 30 years.
Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Data for Louisiana, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sumi, S. J.; Tamanna, M.; Chivoiu, B.; Habib, E. H.
2014-12-01
The downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections dataset contains fine spatial resolution translations of climate projections over the contiguous United States developed using two downscaling techniques (monthly Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) and daily Bias Correction Constructed Analogs (BCCA)). The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of the CMIP5 downscaled general circulation models (GCM). We performed an analysis of the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual variability of precipitation downloaded from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections website for the state of Louisiana, USA at 0.125° x 0.125° resolution. A data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation of a rectangular boundary covering Louisiana is used to assess the validity of 21 downscaled GCMs for the 1950-1999 period. The following statistics are computed using the CMIP5 observed dataset with respect to the 21 models: the correlation coefficient, the bias, the normalized bias, the mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the root mean square error (RMSE). A measure of variability simulated by each model is computed as the ratio of its standard deviation, in both space and time, to the corresponding standard deviation of the observation. The correlation and MAPE statistics are also computed for each of the nine climate divisions of Louisiana. Some of the patterns that we observed are: 1) Average annual precipitation rate shows similar spatial distribution for all the models within a range of 3.27 to 4.75 mm/day from Northwest to Southeast. 2) Standard deviation of summer (JJA) precipitation (mm/day) for the models maintains lower value than the observation whereas they have similar spatial patterns and range of values in winter (NDJ). 3) Correlation coefficients of annual precipitation of models against observation have a range of -0.48 to 0.36 with variable spatial distribution by model
Observed changes in extreme precipitation in Poland: 1991-2015 versus 1961-1990
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pińskwar, Iwona; Choryński, Adam; Graczyk, Dariusz; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
2018-01-01
Several episodes of extreme precipitation excess and extreme precipitation deficit, with considerable economic and social impacts, have occurred in Europe and in Poland in the last decades. However, the changes of related indices exhibit complex variability. This paper analyses changes in indices related to observed abundance and deficit of precipitated water in Poland. Among studied indices are maximum seasonal 24-h precipitation for the winter half-year (Oct.-March) and the summer half-year (Apr.-Sept.), maximum 5-day precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation and number of days with intense or very intense precipitation (respectively, in excess of 10 mm or 20 mm per day). Also, the warm-seasonal maximum number of consecutive dry days (longest period with daily precipitation below 1 mm) was examined. Analysis of precipitation extremes showed that daily maximum precipitation for the summer half-year increased for many stations, and increases during the summer half-year are more numerous than those in the winter half-year. Also, analysis of 5-day and monthly precipitation sums show increases for many stations. Number of days with intense precipitation increases especially in the north-western part of Poland. The number of consecutive dry days is getting higher for many stations in the summer half-year. Comparison of these two periods: colder 1961-1990 and warmer 1991-2015, revealed that during last 25 years most of statistical indices, such as 25th and 75th percentiles, median, mean and maximum are higher. However, many changes discussed in this paper are weak and statistically insignificant. The findings reported in this paper challenge results based on earlier data that do not include 2007-2015.
A perturbation approach for assessing trends in precipitation extremes across Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tabari, Hossein; AghaKouchak, Amir; Willems, Patrick
2014-11-01
Extreme precipitation events have attracted a great deal of attention among the scientific community because of their devastating consequences on human livelihood and socio-economic development. To assess changes in precipitation extremes in a given region, it is essential to analyze decadal oscillations in precipitation extremes. This study examines temporal oscillations in precipitation data in several sub-regions of Iran using a novel quantile perturbation method during 1980-2010. Precipitation data from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-Land (MERRA-Land) are used in this study. The results indicate significant anomalies in precipitation extremes in the northwest and southeast regions of Iran. Analysis of extreme precipitation perturbations reveals that perturbations for the monthly aggregation level are generally lower than the annual perturbations. Furthermore, high-oscillation and low-oscillation periods are found in extreme precipitation quantiles across different seasons. In all selected regions, a significant anomaly (i.e., extreme wet/dry conditions) in precipitation extremes is observed during spring.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duan, Limin; Fan, Keke; Li, Wei; Liu, Tingxi
2017-12-01
Daily precipitation data from 42 stations in Inner Mongolia, China for the 10 years period from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2010 was utilized along with downscaled data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° for the same period based on the statistical relationships between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), meteorological variables, and digital elevation models (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_elevation_model) (DEM) using the leave-one-out (LOO) cross validation method and multivariate step regression. The results indicate that (1) TRMM data can indeed be used to estimate annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia and there is a linear relationship between annual TRMM and observed precipitation; (2) there is a significant relationship between TRMM-based precipitation and predicted precipitation, with a spatial resolution of 0.50° × 0.50°; (3) NDVI and temperature are important factors influencing the downscaling of TRMM precipitation data for DEM and the slope is not the most significant factor affecting the downscaled TRMM data; and (4) the downscaled TRMM data reflects spatial patterns in annual precipitation reasonably well, showing less precipitation falling in west Inner Mongolia and more in the south and southeast. The new approach proposed here provides a useful alternative for evaluating spatial patterns in precipitation and can thus be applied to generate a more accurate precipitation dataset to support both irrigation management and the conservation of this fragile grassland ecosystem.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong;
2012-01-01
One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5
Observations and modeling of wave-induced microburst electron precipitation
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Rosenberg, T.J.; Wei, R.; Detrick, D.L.
1990-05-01
Energy-time features of X ray microbursts are examined and compared with the predictions of a test particle simulation model of wave-induced electron precipitation resulting from gyroresonant wave-particle interactions in the magnetosphere. An algorithm designed to search the E > 25 keV counting rate data for single isolated microbursts identified 651 events in a 3-hr interval. The distribution of burst durations ranged from 0.2 to 1.2 s. Approximately two-thirds of the distribution were narrow bursts (0.2 - 0.6 s), the rest wide (0.6 - 1.2 s), with the average burst durations equal to {minus}0.4 s and {minus}0.7 s, respectively, for themore » two classes. The precipitation was characterized by exponential electron spectra with e-folding energies Eo of 25-50 keV. Individual and superposed microburst profiles show that the X ray energy spectrum is softest near the peak of the energy influx. Computer simulations of the flux- and energy-time profiles of direct and mirrored electron precipitation induced by a whistler-mode wave pulse of 0.2-s duration and linear frequency increase from 2 to 4 kHz were performed for plasma, energetic particle and wave parameters appropriate for the location and geophysical conditions of the observations. In general, the results provide further support for the guroresonant test particle simulation model, and for the belief that the observed type of microbursts originates in the vicinity of the magnetic equator in a gyroresonant process involving discrete chorus emissions.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chambon, Philippe; Zhang, Sara Q.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Zupanski, Milija; Cheung, Samson
2013-01-01
The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.
Summary of types of radiation belt electron precipitation observed by BARREL
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Halford, Alexa
2016-07-01
The Balloon Array for Relativistic Radiation belt Electron Loss (BARREL) was able to infer precipitation of radiation belt electrons on multiple time scales and due to multiple loss mechanisms. One storm will be specifically highlighted which occurred on 26 January 2013 when a solar wind shock hit the Earth. Although MeV electrons were observed to be lost due to an EMIC wave event [Zhang et al in prep], and multiple periods of electron loss during substorms were observed [Rae et al submitted JGR, Mann et al in prep], we will consider an event period where loss associated with multiple time scales, and thus possibly different loss mechanisms was observed from 1000 - 1200 UT on 26 January 2013. At about 1005 UT on 26 January 2013 an injection of radiation belt electrons followed by drift echoes for energies of ˜80 - 400 keV. BARREL observed X-rays with energies less than 180 keV associated with multiple temporal structures during the drift echo event period. The Van Allen Probes were at similar L-values but upwards of 2 hours away in MLT. Upper band chorus and ULF waves were observed during the event period. Throughout the beginning of the event period, microbursts were clearly observed. During this time lower band chorus waves as well as time domain structures were observed at Van Allen Probe A located upwards of 2 hours away in MLT. This large difference in MLT meant that neither potential loss mechanism was able to be clearly associated with the microbursts. As the lower band chorus and time domain structures were observed to recede, the microbursts were also observed to subside. ULF time scale modulation of the X-rays was also observed throughout most of the event period. We will examine if the ULF waves are the cause of the precipitation themselves, or are modulating the loss of particles from a secondary loss mechanism [Brito et al 2015 JGR, Rae et al Submitted JGR]. Although the 100s ms and ULF time scales are clearly observed, there is an ˜20 minute
Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Serbia for the period 1961-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Milovanović, Boško; Schuster, Phillip; Radovanović, Milan; Vakanjac, Vesna Ristić; Schneider, Christoph
2017-10-01
Monthly, seasonal and annual sums of precipitation in Serbia were analysed in this paper for the period 1961-2010. Latitude, longitude and altitude of 421 precipitation stations and terrain features in their close environment (slope and aspect of terrain within a radius of 10 km around the station) were used to develop a regression model on which spatial distribution of precipitation was calculated. The spatial distribution of annual, June (maximum values for almost all of the stations) and February (minimum values for almost all of the stations) precipitation is presented. Annual precipitation amounts ranged from 500 to 600 mm to over 1100 mm. June precipitation ranged from 60 to 140 mm and February precipitation from 30 to 100 mm. The validation results expressed as root mean square error (RMSE) for monthly sums ranged from 3.9 mm in October (7.5% of the average precipitation for this month) to 6.2 mm in April (10.4%). For seasonal sums, RMSE ranged from 10.4 mm during autumn (6.1% of the average precipitation for this season) to 20.5 mm during winter (13.4%). On the annual scale, RMSE was 68 mm (9.5% of the average amount of precipitation). We further analysed precipitation trends using Sen's estimation, while the Mann-Kendall test was used for testing the statistical significance of the trends. For most parts of Serbia, the mean annual precipitation trends fell between -5 and +5 and +5 and +15 mm/decade. June precipitation trends were mainly between -8 and +8 mm/decade. February precipitation trends generally ranged from -3 to +3 mm/decade.
Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes
2010-06-01
A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.
Nutrient content of precipitation over Iowa
M. A. Tabatabai; J. M. Laflen
1976-01-01
Nutrient content and pH of precipitation samples collected at six sites during 1971-1973 were studied to determine the reaction of rainfall and snowmelt and the amounts of N, S, and P added by precipitation over Iowa. The amount of NH4-N added by precipitation per hectare annually at each site was about equal to that added as NO3...
Modeling Precipitation Dependent Forest Resilience in India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Das, P.; Behera, M. D.; Roy, P. S.
2018-04-01
The impact of long term climate change that imparts stress on forest could be perceived by studying the regime shift of forest ecosystem. With the change of significant precipitation, forest may go through density change around globe at different spatial and temporal scale. The 100 class high resolution (60 meter spatial resolution) Indian vegetation type map was used in this study recoded into four broad categories depending on phrenology as (i) forest, (ii) scrubland, (iii) grassland and (iv) treeless area. The percentage occupancy of forest, scrub, grass and treeless were observed as 19.9 %, 5.05 %, 1.89 % and 7.79 % respectively. Rest of the 65.37 % land area was occupied by the cropland, built-up, water body and snow covers. The majority forest cover were appended into a 5 km × 5 km grid, along with the mean annual precipitation taken from Bioclim data. The binary presence and absence of different vegetation categories in relates to the annual precipitation was analyzed to calculate their resilience expressed in probability values ranging from 0 to 1. Forest cover observed having resilience probability (Pr) < 0.3 in only 0.3 % (200 km2) of total forest cover in India, which was 4.3 % < 0.5 Pr. Majority of the scrubs and grass (64.92 % Pr < 0.5) from North East India which were the shifting cultivation lands showing low resilience, having their high tendency to be transform to forest. These results have spatial explicitness to highlight the resilient and non-resilient distribution of forest, scrub and grass, and treeless areas in India.
Validation of satellite based precipitation over diverse topography of Pakistan
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.
2018-03-01
This study evaluates the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and post-real-time 3 h temporal resolution using point-based Surface Precipitation Gauge (SPG) data from 40 stations, for the period 1998-2013, and using gridded Asian Precipitation ˗ Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) data abbreviated as APH data with 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolution for the period 1998-2007, over vulnerable and data sparse regions of Pakistan (24-37° N and 62-75° E). To evaluate the performance of TMPA relative to SPG and APH, four commonly used statistical indicator metrics including Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC) are employed on daily, monthly, seasonal as well as on annual timescales. The TMPA slightly overestimated both SPG and APH at daily, monthly, and annual timescales, however close results were obtained between TMPA and SPG as compared to those between TMPA and APH, on the same timescale. The TMPA overestimated both SPG and APH during the Pre-Monsoon and Monsoon seasons, whereas it underestimated during the Post-Monsoon and Winter seasons, with different magnitudes. Agreement between TMPA and SPG was good in plain and medium elevation regions, whereas TMPA overestimated APH in 31 stations. The magnitudes of MAE and RMSE were high at daily timescale as compared to monthly and annual timescales. Relatively large MAE was observed in stations located over high elevation regions, whereas minor MAE was recorded in plain area stations at daily, monthly, and annual timescales. A strong positive linear relationship between TMPA and SPG was established at monthly (0.98), seasonal (0.93 to 0.98) and annual (0.97) timescales. Precipitation increased with the increase of elevation, and not only elevation but latitude also affected the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Nini; Yin, Jianchuan
2017-12-01
A precipitation-based regionalization for the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was investigated for regional precipitation trend analysis and frequency analysis using data from 1113 grid points covering the period 1900-2014. The results utilizing self-organizing map (SOM) network suggest that four clusters of precipitation coherent zones can be identified, including the southwestern edge, the southern edge, the southeastern region, and the north central region. Regionalization results of the SOM network satisfactorily represent the influences of the atmospheric circulation systems such as the East Asian summer monsoon, the south Asian summer monsoon, and the mid-latitude westerlies. Regionalization results also well display the direct impacts of physical geographical features of the TP such as orography, topography, and land-sea distribution. Regional-scale annual precipitation trend as well as regional differences of annual and seasonal total precipitation were investigated by precipitation index such as precipitation concentration index (PCI) and Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI). Results demonstrate significant negative long-term linear trends in southeastern TP and the north central part of the TP, indicating arid and semi-arid regions in the TP are getting drier. The empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method shows an evolution of the main cycle with 4 and 12 months for all the representative grids of four sub-regions. The cross-wavelet analysis suggests that predominant and effective period of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on monthly precipitation is around ˜12 months, except for the representative grid of the northwestern region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin
2018-04-01
The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Im, Eastwood
2012-01-01
In this paper we illustrate the unique dataset collected during the Global Precipitation Measurement Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx, US/Canada Jan/Feb 2012). We will focus on the significance of these observations for the development of algorithms for GPM and ACE, with particular attention to classification and retrievals of frozen and mixed phase hydrometeors.
The Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers on California's Extreme Precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asgari Lamjiri, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, M.
2017-12-01
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow corridors of enhanced water vapor transport that are typically associated with extratropical cyclones. ARs can be beneficial and replenish water resources, be hazardous and cause damaging floods, or have a combination of hazardous and beneficial impacts. Thus, understanding hydrologic impacts of ARs can help to improve water reservoir management and enhance flood risk mitigation, especially in California where there is extremely large year-to-year variability in annual precipitation accumulations. At the continental scale, gridded hourly precipitation observations are used in this study to identify unique characteristics of precipitation events impacting the US west coast compared to other regions in the US; precipitation events are defined here as continuous periods of precipitation with at least 5 mm of accumulated precipitation. It is shown that on average, the US west coast receives the largest precipitation totals across the US; these extreme precipitation events are largely associated with the most persistent ARs. Within California, hourly precipitation observations from 200 sites are being analyzed to better understand distinct categories of ARs that dictate extreme precipitation in different regions of California. It is found that, on average, the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges experience the largest precipitation events; north coast and northern Sierra precipitation events tend to be longer, whereas the Transverse Ranges generally experience higher maximum and event-averaged intensities. ARs contribute significantly to extreme precipitation events in all regions of California, particularly the north coast, northern Sierra, and the Transverse Ranges. ARs associated with extreme precipitation events across California are significantly more persistent and have higher integrated vapor transport intensities than those associated with non-extreme events. Composites of characteristics of ARs which
The Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset.
Funk, Chris; Nicholson, Sharon E; Landsfeld, Martin; Klotter, Douglas; Peterson, Pete; Harrison, Laura
2015-01-01
East Africa is a drought prone, food and water insecure region with a highly variable climate. This complexity makes rainfall estimation challenging, and this challenge is compounded by low rain gauge densities and inhomogeneous monitoring networks. The dearth of observations is particularly problematic over the past decade, since the number of records in globally accessible archives has fallen precipitously. This lack of data coincides with an increasing scientific and humanitarian need to place recent seasonal and multi-annual East African precipitation extremes in a deep historic context. To serve this need, scientists from the UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group and Florida State University have pooled their station archives and expertise to produce a high quality gridded 'Centennial Trends' precipitation dataset. Additional observations have been acquired from the national meteorological agencies and augmented with data provided by other universities. Extensive quality control of the data was carried out and seasonal anomalies interpolated using kriging. This paper documents the CenTrends methodology and data.
The Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset
Funk, Chris; Nicholson, Sharon E.; Landsfeld, Martin F.; Klotter, Douglas; Peterson, Pete J.; Harrison, Laura
2015-01-01
East Africa is a drought prone, food and water insecure region with a highly variable climate. This complexity makes rainfall estimation challenging, and this challenge is compounded by low rain gauge densities and inhomogeneous monitoring networks. The dearth of observations is particularly problematic over the past decade, since the number of records in globally accessible archives has fallen precipitously. This lack of data coincides with an increasing scientific and humanitarian need to place recent seasonal and multi-annual East African precipitation extremes in a deep historic context. To serve this need, scientists from the UC Santa Barbara Climate Hazards Group and Florida State University have pooled their station archives and expertise to produce a high quality gridded ‘Centennial Trends’ precipitation dataset. Additional observations have been acquired from the national meteorological agencies and augmented with data provided by other universities. Extensive quality control of the data was carried out and seasonal anomalies interpolated using kriging. This paper documents the CenTrends methodology and data.
A Global-Scale Examination of Monsoon-Related Precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Janowiak, John E.; Xie, Pingping
2003-12-01
A pentad version of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project global precipitation dataset is used to document the annual and interannual variations in precipitation over monsoon regions around the globe. An algorithm is described that determines objectively wet season onset and withdrawal for individual years, and this tool is used to examine the behavior of various characteristics of the major monsoon systems. The definition of onset and withdrawal are determined by examining the ramp-up and diminution of rainfall within the context of the climatological rainfall at each location. Also examined are interannual variations in onset and withdrawal and their relationship to rainy season precipitation accumulations. Changes in the distribution of “heavy” and “light” precipitation events are examined for years in which “abundant” and “poor” wet seasons are observed, and associations with variations in large-scale atmospheric general circulation features are also examined. In particular, some regions of the world have strong associations between wet season rainfall and global-scale patterns of 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Y.; Liu, B.
2017-12-01
Climate change and human activities are two critical factors causing the dramatical variations of streamflow in the Yellow River Basin of China during the last several decades. More and more attention has been paid to the temporal relationships of streamflow with precipitation and temperature recently. The objective of the current study was to explore the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the temporal variations of streamflow on the Loess Plateau using a multiple wavelet coherency method. Annual streamflow during 1961-2013 for 17 small catchments were collected from the Yellow River Conservancy Commission and annual precipitation and temperature for each catchment were derived from the meteorological data at the national weather stations across the Loess Plateau through the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. An abrupt decrease was observed in the annual streamflow around year 2000 for any of the 17 catchments investigated, which was believed to be related with the extensive Grain for Green Project. According to bivariate wavelet coherences, however, annual streamflow showed strong temporal variations with annual precipitation at 8 out of the 17 catchments, where the percentage area of significant coherency (PASC) exceeded 50%. Especially in Weihe and Yiluohe catchments, the corresponding PASC were close to 100%, suggesting that annual precipitation change accounted for almost all the temporal streamflow variations. Compared to annual precipitation, the temporal correlation of temperature with streamflow was relatively small, as implied in the lower mean wavelet coherence (MWC) and PASC. Moreover, including temperature in addition to precipitation in the multiple wavelet coherency analysis failed to increase either MWC or PASC in any of the 17 catchments except for Qingjianhe and Qiushuihe catchments. It was indicated that for most catchments on the Loess Plateau, annual temperature was not significantly different from the red noise in
Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa
Hodnebrog, Øivind; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Sillmann, Jana; Samset, Bjørn H.
2016-01-01
Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. Here we show that local black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions from biomass burning activities are a main cause of the observed decline in southern African dry season precipitation over the last century. Near the main biomass burning regions, global and regional modelling indicates precipitation decreases of 20–30%, with large spatial variability. Increasing global CO2 concentrations further contribute to precipitation reductions, somewhat less in magnitude but covering a larger area. Whereas precipitation changes from increased CO2 are driven by large-scale circulation changes, the increase in biomass burning aerosols causes local drying of the atmosphere. This study illustrates that reducing local biomass burning aerosol emissions may be a useful way to mitigate reduced rainfall in the region. PMID:27068129
Time scales of biogeochemical and organismal responses to individual precipitation events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Fischer, J. C.; Angert, A. L.; Augustine, D. J.; Brown, C.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Derner, J. D.; Hufbauer, R. A.; Fierer, N.; Milchunas, D. G.; Moore, J. C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.
2010-12-01
In temperate grasslands, spatial and intra-annual variability in the activity of plants and microbes are structured by patterns in the precipitation regime. While the effects of total annual precipitation have been well-explored, the ecological dynamics associated with individual precipitation events have not. Rainfall events induce a short-term pulse of soil respiration that may or may not be followed by stimulation of plant photosynthetic activity and growth. Because the underlying heterotrophic and autotrophic responses are interactive, respond over unique timescales and are sensitive to precipitation magnitude, it remains difficult to predict the hydrologic effects on net CO2 exchange. To develop a better mechanistic understanding of these processes, we conducted a synthetic, multi-investigator experiment to characterize the ecosystem responses to rainfall events of different sizes. Our work was conducted on the Shortgrass Steppe (SGS) LTER site over 7 days in June 2009, using 1cm and 2cm rainfall events, with controls and each treatment replicated 5 times in 2m x 2m plots. Our observations revealed both expected responses of plant activity and soil respiration, and surprising patterns in microbial enzyme activity and soil fauna population densities. Coupled with observed dynamics in 15N partitioning and kinetics, our findings provide empirical timescales for the complex ecological interactions that underlie the ecosystem responses to rainfall events. These results can be used to inform a new generation of ecosystem simulation models to more explicitly consider the time lags and interactions of different functional groups.
Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.
2013-03-01
Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights
An assessment of mean annual precipitation in Rajasthan, India needed to maintain Mid-Holocene lakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gill, E.; Rajagopalan, B.; Molnar, P. H.
2013-12-01
Paleo-climate literature reports evidence of freshwater lakes over Rajasthan, a region of northwestern India, during the mid-Holocene (~6ka), where desert conditions prevail in present time. It's suggested that mid-Holocene temperatures were warmer, precipitation was nearly double current levels, and there was an enhanced La Niña-like state. While previous analyses infer the lakes were sustained by generally high precipitation and low evaporation, we provide a systematic analysis on the relevant energy budget quantities and the dynamic relationships between them. We have built a hydrological lake model to reconstruct lake levels throughout the Holocene. Model output is evaporation from the lake. Inputs are precipitation over the lake and catchment runoff, determined using precipitation, Preistley-Taylor evapotranspiration, interception and infiltration. Initial tests of the model have been completed with current climate conditions to ensure accurate behavior. Contemporary runs used station precipitation and temperature data [Rajeevan et al., 2006] for the region surrounding Lake Didwana (27°N 74°E). Digital elevation maps were used to compile lake bathymetry for Lake Didwana. Under current climate conditions, a full Lake Didwana (~ 9 m) empties over the first several years. While lake depth varies yearly, increasing with each monsoon season, variations following the initial decline are minimal (~ × 1.0 m). We ran the model with a 2000-year sequence of precipitation and temperature generated by resampling the observed weather sequences, with a suite of base line fractions of vegetation cover and increased precipitation, with solar insolation appropriate during the mid-Holocene period. Initial runs revealed that precipitation amount and percent of vegetated catchment area influence lake levels, but insolation alone does not. Incrementally changing precipitation (between current levels and a 75% increase) and percent of vegetated area (between 10-90%) reveals that
BACKGROUND: Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions – however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, L.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Scott, C. A.; Zeng, C.; SHI, X.
2017-12-01
Precipitation is one of the crucial inputs for models used to better understand hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is a difficult task to obtain a reliable precipitation data set describing the spatial and temporal characteristic due to the limited meteorological observations and high variability of precipitation. This study carries out intensive observation of precipitation in a high mountain catchment in the southeast of the Tibet during July to August 2013. According to the rain gauges set up at different altitudes, it is found that precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude. The observed precipitation is used to depict the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 6.0 hours and the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100m for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. Based on the gridded precipitation derived from the PG and HD and the nearby Linzhi meteorological station at lower altitude, a distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets (WEB-DHM) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes. Beside the observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are also used for model calibration and validation. The resulting runoff, SCA and LST simulations are all reasonable. Sensitivity analyses indicate that runoff is greatly underestimated without considering PG, illustrating that short-term intensive precipitation observation contributes to improving hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dandridge, C.; Lakshmi, V.; Sutton, J. R. P.; Bolten, J. D.
2017-12-01
This study focuses on the lower region of the Mekong River Basin (MRB), an area including Burma, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. This region is home to expansive agriculture that relies heavily on annual precipitation over the basin for its prosperity. Annual precipitation amounts are regulated by the global monsoon system and therefore vary throughout the year. This research will lead to improved prediction of floods and management of floodwaters for the MRB. We compare different satellite estimates of precipitation to each other and to in-situ precipitation estimates for the Mekong River Basin. These comparisons will help us determine which satellite precipitation estimates are better at predicting precipitation in the MRB and will help further our understanding of watershed-modeling capabilities for the basin. In this study we use: 1) NOAA's PERSIANN daily 0.25° precipitation estimate Climate Data Record (CDR), 2) NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily 0.25° estimate, and 3) NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) daily 0.1 estimate and 4) 488 in-situ stations located in the lower MRB provide daily precipitation estimates. The PERSIANN CDR precipitation estimate was able to provide the longest data record because it is available from 1983 to present. The TRMM precipitation estimate is available from 2000 to present and the GPM precipitation estimates are available from 2015 to present. It is for this reason that we provide several comparisons between our precipitation estimates. Comparisons were done between each satellite product and the in-situ precipitation estimates based on geographical location and date using the entire available data record for each satellite product for daily, monthly, and yearly precipitation estimates. We found that monthly PERSIANN precipitation estimates were able to explain up to 90% of the variability in station precipitation depending on station location.
Lightning and Precipitation: Observational Analysis of LIS and PR
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adamo, C.; Solomon, R.; Goodman, S.; Dietrich, S.; Mugnai, A.
2003-01-01
Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Po-Chun; Wang, Yuan-Heng; You, Gene Jiing-Yun; Wei, Chih-Chiang
2017-02-01
Future climatic conditions likely will not satisfy stationarity assumption. To address this concern, this study applied three methods to analyze non-stationarity in hydrologic conditions. Based on the principle of identifying distribution and trends (IDT) with time-varying moments, we employed the parametric weighted least squares (WLS) estimation in conjunction with the non-parametric discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Our aim was to evaluate the applicability of non-parameter approaches, compared with traditional parameter-based methods. In contrast to most previous studies, which analyzed the non-stationarity of first moments, we incorporated second-moment analysis. Through the estimation of long-term risk, we were able to examine the behavior of return periods under two different definitions: the reciprocal of the exceedance probability of occurrence and the expected recurrence time. The proposed framework represents an improvement over stationary frequency analysis for the design of hydraulic systems. A case study was performed using precipitation data from major climate stations in Taiwan to evaluate the non-stationarity of annual maximum daily precipitation. The results demonstrate the applicability of these three methods in the identification of non-stationarity. For most cases, no significant differences were observed with regard to the trends identified using WLS, DWT, and EEMD. According to the results, a linear model should be able to capture time-variance in either the first or second moment while parabolic trends should be used with caution due to their characteristic rapid increases. It is also observed that local variations in precipitation tend to be overemphasized by DWT and EEMD. The two definitions provided for the concept of return period allows for ambiguous interpretation. With the consideration of non-stationarity, the return period is relatively small under the definition of expected
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Lei; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron; Xi, Baike; Li, Zhanqing
2017-03-01
The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) groundbased observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.
Precipitation regimes over central Greenland inferred from 5 years of ICECAPS observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pettersen, Claire; Bennartz, Ralf; Merrelli, Aronne J.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Turner, David D.; Walden, Von P.
2018-04-01
A novel method for classifying Arctic precipitation using ground based remote sensors is presented. Using differences in the spectral variation of microwave absorption and scattering properties of cloud liquid water and ice, this method can distinguish between different types of snowfall events depending on the presence or absence of condensed liquid water in the clouds that generate the precipitation. The classification reveals two distinct, primary regimes of precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS): one originating from fully glaciated ice clouds and the other from mixed-phase clouds. Five years of co-located, multi-instrument data from the Integrated Characterization of Energy, Clouds, Atmospheric state, and Precipitation at Summit (ICECAPS) are used to examine cloud and meteorological properties and patterns associated with each precipitation regime. The occurrence and accumulation of the precipitation regimes are identified and quantified. Cloud and precipitation observations from additional ICECAPS instruments illustrate distinct characteristics for each regime. Additionally, reanalysis products and back-trajectory analysis show different synoptic-scale forcings associated with each regime. Precipitation over the central GIS exhibits unique microphysical characteristics due to the high surface elevations as well as connections to specific large-scale flow patterns. Snowfall originating from the ice clouds is coupled to deep, frontal cloud systems advecting up and over the southeast Greenland coast to the central GIS. These events appear to be associated with individual storm systems generated by low pressure over Baffin Bay and Greenland lee cyclogenesis. Snowfall originating from mixed-phase clouds is shallower and has characteristics typical of supercooled cloud liquid water layers, and slowly propagates from the south and southwest of Greenland along a quiescent flow above the GIS.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Behrangi, Ali; Stephens, Graeme; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Lambrigsten, Bjorn; Lebstock, Matthew
2014-01-01
This study contributes to the estimation of the global mean and zonal distribution of oceanic precipitation rate using complementary information from advanced precipitation measuring sensors and provides an independent reference to assess current precipitation products. Precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR) were merged, as the two complementary sensors yield an unprecedented range of sensitivity to quantify rainfall from drizzle through the most intense rates. At higher latitudes, where TRMM PR does not exist, precipitation estimates from Aqua's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) complemented CloudSat CPR to capture intense precipitation rates. The high sensitivity of CPR allows estimation of snow rate, an important type of precipitation at high latitudes, not directly observed in current merged precipitation products. Using the merged precipitation estimate from the CloudSat, TRMM, and Aqua platforms (this estimate is abbreviated to MCTA), the authors' estimate for 3-yr (2007-09) nearglobal (80degS-80degN) oceanic mean precipitation rate is approx. 2.94mm/day. This new estimate of mean global ocean precipitation is about 9% higher than that of the corresponding Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) value (2.68mm/day) and about 4% higher than that of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; 2.82mm/day). Furthermore, MCTA suggests distinct differences in the zonal distribution of precipitation rate from that depicted in GPCPand CMAP, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hussain, Mubasher; Yusof, Khamaruzaman Wan; Mustafa, Muhammad Raza Ul; Mahmood, Rashid; Jia, Shaofeng
2017-10-01
We present the climate change impact on the annual and seasonal precipitation over Rajang River Basin (RRB) in Sarawak by employing a set of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Based on the capability to simulate the historical precipitation, we selected the three most suitable GCMs (i.e. ACCESS1.0, ACCESS1.3, and GFDL-ESM2M) and their mean ensemble (B3MMM) was used to project the future precipitation over the RRB. Historical (1976-2005) and future (2011-2100) precipitation ensembles of B3MMM were used to perturb the stochastically generated future precipitation over 25 rainfall stations in the river basin. The B3MMM exhibited a significant increase in precipitation during 2080s, up to 12 and 8% increase in annual precipitation over upper and lower RRB, respectively, under RCP8.5, and up to 7% increase in annual precipitation under RCP4.5. On the seasonal scale, Mann-Kendal trend test estimated statistically significant positive trend in the future precipitation during all seasons; except September to November when we only noted significant positive trend for the lower RRB under RCP4.5. Overall, at the end of the twenty-first century, an increase in annual precipitation is noteworthy in the whole RRB, with 7 and 10% increase in annual precipitation under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wen, Xiaohu; Wu, Xiaoqing; Gao, Meng
2017-11-01
Climate change is potentially challenging the sustainable development in many parts of the world, especially the semi-arid and arid regions on the earth. Northwest China (NWC) is one of the most arid areas in East Asia, and Gansu Province is located at the important climate transition zone in NWC. Spatiotemporal variability of both temperature and precipitation were analyzed based on the daily observation dataset at 29 meteorological stations over Gansu during 1951-2015. The Mann-Kendall trend test was utilized to detect monotonic trends in extreme climate indices, mean temperature, and total precipitation. The results revealed that the warming trends were statistically significant at most stations in Gansu, especially at the high altitude stations; however, the change trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Gansu were not significant as expected. Furthermore, the 29 stations were spatially grouped using hierarchical clustering method. The regional-averaged temperature anomalies also showed a significant warming trend beginning at the end of 1970s. Spatial variations were also observed in the annual and seasonal precipitation over Gansu. In general, precipitation increased in the western part of Gansu while decreased in the eastern part. Additionally, the wavelet analyses revealed that the teleconnection between large scale circulation and summer precipitation varied not only from region to region, but also was different at different time scale and different time periods. Analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes showed that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation, increasing geopotential height and rapid warming over the Eurasian continent were considered to be attributable to climate change in Gansu and even in NWC.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akers, Pete D.; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Brook, George A.
2017-09-01
Air temperature is correlated with precipitation oxygen isotope (δ18Oprcp) variability for much of the eastern and central United States, but the nature of this δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is largely based on data coarsely aggregated at a monthly resolution. We constructed a database of 6177 weeks of isotope and precipitation-day air temperature data from 25 sites to determine how more precise data change our understanding of this classic relationship. Because the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship is not perfectly linear, trends in the regression residuals suggest the influence of additional environmental factors such as moisture recycling and extratropical cyclone interactions. Additionally, the temporal relationships between δ18Oprcp and temperature observed in the weekly data at individual sites can explain broader spatial patterns observed across the study region. For 20 of 25 sites, the δ18Oprcp-temperature relationship slope is higher for colder precipitation than for warmer precipitation. Accordingly, northern and western sites with relatively more cold precipitation events have steeper overall relationships with higher slope values than southeastern sites that have more warm precipitation events. Although the magnitude of δ18Oprcp variability increases to the north and west, the fraction of δ18Oprcp variability explained by temperature increases due to wider annual temperature ranges, producing stronger relationships in these regions. When our δ18Oprcp-temperature data are grouped by month, we observe significant variations in the relationship from month to month. This argues against a principal causative role for temperature and suggests the existence of an alternative environmental control on δ18Oprcp values that simply covaries seasonally with temperature.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wingo, S. M.; Petersen, W. A.; Gatlin, P. N.; Marks, D. A.; Wolff, D. B.; Pabla, C. S.
2017-12-01
The versatile SIMBA (System for Integrating Multi-platform data to Build the Atmospheric column) precipitation data-fusion framework produces an atmospheric column data product with multi-platform observations set into a common 3-D grid, affording an efficient starting point for multi-sensor comparisons and analysis that can be applied to any region. Supported data sources include: ground-based scanning and profiling radars (S-, X-, Ku-, K-, and Ka-band), multiple types of disdrometers and rain gauges, the GPM Core Observatory's Microwave Imager (GMI, 10-183 GHz) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR, Ka/Ku-band), as well as thermodynamic soundings and the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor QPE product. SIMBA column data files provide a unique way to evaluate the complete vertical profile of precipitation. Two post-launch (GPM Core in orbit) field campaigns focused on different facets of the GPM mission: the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) was geared toward winter season (November-February) precipitation in Pacific frontal systems and their transition from the coastal to mountainous terrain of northwest Washington, while the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) sampled warm season (April-June) precipitation and supported hydrologic applications in the southern Appalachians and eastern North Carolina. Both campaigns included multiple orographic precipitation enhancement episodes. SIMBA column products generated for select OLYMPEX and IPHEx events will be used to evaluate spatial variability and vertical profiles of precipitation and drop size distribution parameters derived and/or observed by space- and ground-based sensors. Results will provide a cursory view of how well the space-based measurements represent what is observed from the ground below and an indication to how the terrain in both regions impacts the characteristics of precipitation within the column and reaching the ground.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wingo, S. M.; Petersen, W. A.; Gatlin, P. N.; Marks, D. A.; Wolff, D. B.; Pabla, C. S.
2016-12-01
The versatile SIMBA (System for Integrating Multi-platform data to Build the Atmospheric column) precipitation data-fusion framework produces an atmospheric column data product with multi-platform observations set into a common 3-D grid, affording an efficient starting point for multi-sensor comparisons and analysis that can be applied to any region. Supported data sources include: ground-based scanning and profiling radars (S-, X-, Ku-, K-, and Ka-band), multiple types of disdrometers and rain gauges, the GPM Core Observatory's Microwave Imager (GMI, 10-183 GHz) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR, Ka/Ku-band), as well as thermodynamic soundings and the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor QPE product. SIMBA column data files provide a unique way to evaluate the complete vertical profile of precipitation. Two post-launch (GPM Core in orbit) field campaigns focused on different facets of the GPM mission: the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) was geared toward winter season (November-February) precipitation in Pacific frontal systems and their transition from the coastal to mountainous terrain of northwest Washington, while the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) sampled warm season (April-June) precipitation and supported hydrologic applications in the southern Appalachians and eastern North Carolina. Both campaigns included multiple orographic precipitation enhancement episodes. SIMBA column products generated for select OLYMPEX and IPHEx events will be used to evaluate spatial variability and vertical profiles of precipitation and drop size distribution parameters derived and/or observed by space- and ground-based sensors. Results will provide a cursory view of how well the space-based measurements represent what is observed from the ground below and an indication to how the terrain in both regions impacts the characteristics of precipitation within the column and reaching the ground.
Wang, Zhi Peng; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao; Li, Meng; Shi, Pei Li; Zu, Jia Xing; Niu, Ben
2018-01-01
Precipitation change is an important factor in the inter-annual variation of grassland growth on the Tibetan Plateau. The total amount, distribution pattern and concentration time are three basic characteristics of precipitation change. The temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation change were analyzed based on climate data of 145 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas from 2000 to 2015. The total precipitation amount was characterized by annual precipitation, distribution pattern of precipitation during the year was characterized by improved precipitation concentration index (PCI), and precipitation centroid (PC) was defined to indicate the change in precipitation concentrated time. To better illustrate the response of grassland to precipitation change, vegetation growth status was characterized by the maximum value of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI max ). Results indicated that the annual precipitation and PCI had an apparent gradient across the whole plateau and the latest PC occurred in the southern plateau. NDVI max of alpine shrub grassland was significantly correlated with the change of PCI,increased with even distribution of precipitation during growth period, and limited by the total annual precipitation. Alpine meadow did not show significantly correlations with these three indices. The inter-annual variability of NDVI max of steppe was controlled by both PCI and PC. NDVI max of alpine desert grassland was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. In addition to annual total amount of precipitation, the distribution characteristics of precipitation should be further considered when the influence of precipitation change on different types of vegetation on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau was studied.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, J. Marshall; Manyin, Michael; Burian, Steve; Garza, Carlos
2003-01-01
There is renewed interest in the impacts of urbanization on global change as witnessed by special sessions at the Fall AGU and Annual AMS meeting. A comprehensive satellite, modeling, and field campaign program is underway to assess the impact of urbanization on precipitation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kidd, Chris; Matsui, Toshi; Chern, Jiundar; Mohr, Karen; Kummerow, Christian; Randel, Dave
2015-01-01
The estimation of precipitation across the globe from satellite sensors provides a key resource in the observation and understanding of our climate system. Estimates from all pertinent satellite observations are critical in providing the necessary temporal sampling. However, consistency in these estimates from instruments with different frequencies and resolutions is critical. This paper details the physically based retrieval scheme to estimate precipitation from cross-track (XT) passive microwave (PM) sensors on board the constellation satellites of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Here the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF), a physically based Bayesian scheme developed for conically scanning (CS) sensors, is adapted for use with XT PM sensors. The present XT GPROF scheme utilizes a model-generated database to overcome issues encountered with an observational database as used by the CS scheme. The model database ensures greater consistency across meteorological regimes and surface types by providing a more comprehensive set of precipitation profiles. The database is corrected for bias against the CS database to ensure consistency in the final product. Statistical comparisons over western Europe and the United States show that the XT GPROF estimates are comparable with those from the CS scheme. Indeed, the XT estimates have higher correlations against surface radar data, while maintaining similar root-mean-square errors. Latitudinal profiles of precipitation show the XT estimates are generally comparable with the CS estimates, although in the southern midlatitudes the peak precipitation is shifted equatorward while over the Arctic large differences are seen between the XT and the CS retrievals.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sasaki, Hana; Onishi, Yuri; Ishihara, Yoshiro; Yoshimura, Kazuhisa
2017-04-01
vary stratigraphically, and multiple types of fluorescence intensity pattern are observed in the stalagmite. When the co-precipitation of FA is governed by the hiatus model, it is suggested that a gradual increase in the annual layers will result from a large accumulation of calcite after the annual peak in the FA concentration, whereas there will be a gradual decrease if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration. However, in the case of the PC model, a gradually increasing type of pattern is formed if the main growth occurs before the annual peak in FA concentration, and a gradually decreasing type is formed if the main growth occurs afterwards. If the annual peak of FA concentration occurs several months after high summer, it is suggested that intervals showing a gradually increasing type were formed in winter, and intervals showing a gradually decreasing type were formed in the early summer, in the case of the hiatus model. In the case of PC model, the seasons are reversed. In the climatic environment around the Ryuo-do Cave, the growth rates of stalagmites are affected by cave air circulation in winter and by rainfall (rainy season) in early summer.
Arctic daily temperature and precipitation extremes: Observed and simulated physical behavior
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glisan, Justin Michael
Simulations using a six-member ensemble of Pan-Arctic WRF (PAW) were produced on two Arctic domains with 50-km resolution to analyze precipitation and temperature extremes for various periods. The first study used a domain developed for the Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM). Initial simulations revealed deep atmospheric circulation biases over the northern Pacific Ocean, manifested in pressure, geopotential height, and temperature fields. Possible remedies to correct these large biases, such as modifying the physical domain or using different initial/boundary conditions, were unsuccessful. Spectral (interior) nudging was introduced as a way of constraining the model to be more consistent with observed behavior. However, such control over numerical model behavior raises concerns over how much nudging may affect unforced variability and extremes. Strong nudging may reduce or filter out extreme events, since the nudging pushes the model toward a relatively smooth, large-scale state. The question then becomes---what is the minimum spectral nudging needed to correct biases while not limiting the simulation of extreme events? To determine this, we use varying degrees of spectral nudging, using WRF's standard nudging as a reference point during January and July 2007. Results suggest that there is a marked lack of sensitivity to varying degrees of nudging. Moreover, given that nudging is an artificial forcing applied in the model, an important outcome of this work is that nudging strength apparently can be considerably smaller than WRF's standard strength and still produce reliable simulations. In the remaining studies, we used the same PAW setup to analyze daily precipitation extremes simulated over a 19-year period on the CORDEX Arctic domain for winter and summer. We defined these seasons as the three-month period leading up to and including the climatological sea ice maximum and minimum, respectively. Analysis focused on four North American regions defined using
Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin
2012-09-01
Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05) during MAM, SON, and DJF, as well as in Europe during MAM and SON period. A negative correlation for more stations was observed during JJA. For precipitation, there were many stations showed a significant positive correlation with inter-annual variation of global FPAR (P < 0.01 or P < 0.05), especially for the tropical rainfall forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Fan; Lu, Hui; Yang, Kun; He, Jie; Wang, Wei; Wright, Jonathon S.; Li, Chengwei; Han, Menglei; Li, Yishan
2017-11-01
Precipitation and shortwave radiation play important roles in climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. Several global and regional forcing data sets currently provide historical estimates of these two variables over China, including the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD). The CN05.1 precipitation data set, a gridded analysis based on CMA gauge observations, also provides high-resolution historical precipitation data for China. In this study, we present an intercomparison of precipitation and shortwave radiation data from CN05.1, CMFD, CLDAS and GLDAS during 2008-2014. We also validate all four data sets against independent ground station observations. All four forcing data sets capture the spatial distribution of precipitation over major land areas of China, although CLDAS indicates smaller annual-mean precipitation amounts than CN05.1, CMFD or GLDAS. Time series of precipitation anomalies are largely consistent among the data sets, except for a sudden decrease in CMFD after August 2014. All forcing data indicate greater temporal variations relative to the mean in dry regions than in wet regions. Validation against independent precipitation observations provided by the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River indicates that CLDAS provides the most realistic estimates of spatiotemporal variability in precipitation in this region. CMFD also performs well with respect to annual mean precipitation, while GLDAS fails to accurately capture much of the spatiotemporal variability and CN05.1 contains significant high biases relative to the MWR observations. Estimates of shortwave radiation from CMFD are largely consistent with station observations, while CLDAS and GLDAS greatly overestimate shortwave radiation. All three forcing data sets capture the key features of the
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Watermann, Jurgen; Lummerzheim, Dirk; De La Beaujardiere, Odile; Newell, Patrick T.; Rich, Frederic J.
1994-01-01
We have examined Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar observations of ionospheric plasma density and temperature distributions and measurements of F region ion drifts that were made during a prenoon pass of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)-F7 satellite through the radar field of view. The spacecraft traversed a region of intense electron precipitation with a characteristic energy below approximately 200 eV. Particles with such low characteristic energies are believed to be directly or indirectly of magnetosheath origin. The precipitation region had a width about 2 deg invariant latitude and covered the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL), the cusp, and the equatorward section of the plasma mantle (PM). The corotating radar observed a patch of enhanced electron density and elevated electron temperature in the F2 region between about 10.5 and 12 magnetic local time in the same invariant latitude range where DMSP-F7 detected the soft-electron flux. The ion drift pattern, also obtained by radar, shows that it is unlikely that the plasma patch was produced by solar radiation and advected into the radar field of view. We suggest that the radar observed modifications of the ionospheric plasma distribution, which resulted from direct entry of magnetosheath electrons into the magnetosphere and down to ionospheric altitudes. Model calculations of the ionospheric response to the observed electron precipitation support our interpretation. The spectral characteristics of the electron flux in the LLBL, cusp, and equatorward section of the PM were in this case too similar to allow to distinguish between them by using incoherent scatter radar measurements only.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, K. E.
2006-12-01
The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, Kenneth S.; Plant, Joshua N.; Dunne, John P.; Talley, Lynne D.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.
2017-08-01
Annual nitrate cycles have been measured throughout the pelagic waters of the Southern Ocean, including regions with seasonal ice cover and southern hemisphere subtropical zones. Vertically resolved nitrate measurements were made using in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer (ISUS) and submersible ultraviolet nitrate analyzer (SUNA) optical nitrate sensors deployed on profiling floats. Thirty-one floats returned 40 complete annual cycles. The mean nitrate profile from the month with the highest winter nitrate minus the mean profile from the month with the lowest nitrate yields the annual nitrate drawdown. This quantity was integrated to 200 m depth and converted to carbon using the Redfield ratio to estimate annual net community production (ANCP) throughout the Southern Ocean south of 30°S. A well-defined, zonal mean distribution is found with highest values (3-4 mol C m-2 yr-1) from 40 to 50°S. Lowest values are found in the subtropics and in the seasonal ice zone. The area weighted mean was 2.9 mol C m-2 yr-1 for all regions south of 40°S. Cumulative ANCP south of 50°S is 1.3 Pg C yr-1. This represents about 13% of global ANCP in about 14% of the global ocean area.
Johnson, Richard L.; Thoms, R.B.; Zogorski, J.S.
2003-01-01
MTBE and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are widely observed in shallow groundwater in the United States, especially in urban areas. Previous studies suggest that the atmosphere and/or nonpoint surficial sources could be responsible for some of those VOCs, especially in areas where there is net recharge to groundwater. However, in semi-arid locations where annual potential evapotranspiration can exceed annual precipitation, VOC detections in groundwater can be frequent. VOC transport to groundwater under net discharge conditions has not previously been examined. A numerical model is used here to demonstrate that daily precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) patterns can have a significant effect on recharge to groundwater, water table elevations, and VOC transport. Ten-year precipitation/ET scenarios from six sites in the United States are examined using both actual daily observed values and “average” pulsed precipitation. MTBE and tetrachloroethylene transport, including gas-phase diffusion, are considered. The effects of the precipitation/ET scenarios on net recharge and groundwater flow are significant and complicated, especially under low-precipitation conditions when pulsed precipitation can significantly underestimate transport to groundwater. In addition to precipitation and evapotranspiration effects, location of VOC entry into the subsurface within the watershed is important for transport in groundwater. This is caused by groundwater hydraulics at the watershed scale as well as variations in ET within the watershed. The model results indicate that it is important to consider both daily precipitation/ET patterns and location within the watershed in order to interpret VOC occurrence in groundwater, especially in low-precipitation settings.
Precipitation phase separation schemes in the Naqu River basin, eastern Tibetan plateau
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Shaohua; Yan, Denghua; Qin, Tianling; Weng, Baisha; Lu, Yajing; Dong, Guoqiang; Gong, Boya
2018-01-01
Precipitation phase has a profound influence on the hydrological processes in the Naqu River basin, eastern Tibetan plateau. However, there are only six meteorological stations with precipitation phase (rainfall/snowfall/sleet) before 1979 within and around the basin. In order to separate snowfall from precipitation, a new separation scheme with S-shaped curve of snowfall proportion as an exponential function of daily mean temperature was developed. The determinations of critical temperatures in the single/two temperature threshold (STT/TTT2) methods were explored accordingly, and the temperature corresponding to the 50 % snowfall proportion (SP50 temperature) is an efficiently critical temperature for the STT, and two critical temperatures in TTT2 can be determined based on the exponential function and SP50 temperature. Then, different separation schemes were evaluated in separating snowfall from precipitation in the Naqu River basin. The results show that the S-shaped curve methods outperform other separation schemes. Although the STT and TTT2 slightly underestimate and overestimate the snowfall when the temperature is higher and colder than SP50 temperature respectively, the monthly and annual separation snowfalls are generally consistent with the observed snowfalls. On the whole, S-shaped curve methods, STT, and TTT2 perform well in separating snowfall from precipitation with the Pearson correlation coefficient of annual separation snowfall above 0.8 and provide possible approaches to separate the snowfall from precipitation for hydrological modelling.
Addressing extreme precipitation change under future climates in the Upper Yangtze River Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Z.; Yuan, Z.; Gao, X.
2017-12-01
Investigating the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation accurately is of importance for application purposes such as flooding mitigation and urban drainage system design. In this paper, a systematical analysis framework to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events is developed and practiced in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China. Firstly, the UYRB is gridded and five extreme precipitation indices (annual maximum 3- 5- 7- 15- and 30-day precipitation) are selected. Secondly, with observed precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5°×0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from ten general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5, A regionally efficient GCM is selected for each grid by the skill score (SS) method which maximizes the overlapped area of probability density functions of extreme precipitation indices between observations and simulations during the historical period. Then, simulations of assembled efficient GCMs are bias corrected by Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function method. Finally, the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC-ESM perform better in the UYRB. There are 19.8 to 20.9% and 14.2 to 18.7% of all grids regard this two GCMs as regionally efficient GCM for the five indices, respectively. Moreover, the regionally efficient GCMs are spatially distributed. (2) The assembled GCM performs much better than any single GCM, with the SS>0.8 and SS>0.6 in more than 65 and 85 percent grids. (3) Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the extreme precipitation of 50-year and 100-year return period is projected to increase in most areas of the UYRB in the future period, with 55.0 to 61.3% of the UYRB increasing larger than 10 percent for the five indices. The changes are spatially and temporal distributed. The upstream region of the UYRB has a relatively significant increase compared to the downstream basin, while
Constraining precipitation amount and distribution over cold regions using GRACE
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Behrangi, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Gardner, A. S.; Fisher, J.
2017-12-01
Current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in high-elevation and high latitude regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here we demonstrate how that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger error. We also observed that as near surface temperature decreases products tend to underestimate accumulated precipitation retrieved from GRACE. The analysis performed using various products such as GPCP, GPCC, TRMM, and gridded station data over vast regions in high latitudes and two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia. Based on the analysis over High Mountain Asia it was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, GPCP showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basin.
Spatio-temporal variability of several eco-precipitation indicators in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, B. B.; Zhang, J.; Wang, F.
2016-12-01
Climate change is expected to have large impacts on the eco-hydrological processes. Precipitation as one of the most important meteorological factors is a significant parameter in ecohydrology. Many studies and precipitation indexes focused on the long-term precipitation variability have been put forward. However, these former studies did not consider the vegetation response and these indexes could not reflect it efficiently. Eco-precipitation indicators reflecting the features and patterns of precipitations and serving as significant input parameters of eco-hydrological models are of paramount significance to the studies of these models. Therefore we proposed 4 important eco-precipitation indicators—Precipitation Variability Index (PVI), Precipitation Occurrence Rate (λ), Mean Precipitation Depth (1/θ) and Annual Precipitation (AP). The PVI index depicts the precipitation variability with a value of zero for perfectly uniform and increases as precipitation events become more sporadic. The λ, 1/θ and AP depict the precipitation frequency, intensity and annual amount, respectively. With large precipitation and vegetation discrepancies, China is selected as a study area. Firstly, these indicators are calculated separately with 55-years (1961-2015) daily precipitation time-series from 693 weather stations in China. Then, the temporal trend is analyzed through Mann-Kendall (MK) test and parametric t-test in annual time scale. Furthermore, the spatial distribution is analyzed through the spatial interpolation tools ANUsplin. The result shows that: (1) 1/θ increased significantly (4.59cm/10yr) while λ decreased significantly (1.54 days/10yr), which means there is an increasing trend of extreme precipitation events; (2)there is a significant downward trend of PVI, which means the rhythm of precipitation has a uniform and concentrated trend; (3) AP increased insignificantly (0.57mm/10yr); and (4)the MK test of these indicators shows that there is saltation of
Consistent radiative transfer modeling of active and passive observations of precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adams, Ian
2016-04-01
Spaceborne platforms such as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission exploit a combination of active and passive sensors to provide a greater understanding of the three-dimensional structure of precipitation. While "operationalized" retrieval algorithms require fast forward models, the ability to perform higher fidelity simulations is necessary in order to understand the physics of remote sensing problems by testing assumptions and developing parameterizations for the fast models. To ensure proper synergy between active and passive modeling, forward models must be consistent when modeling the responses of radars and radiometers. This work presents a self-consistent transfer model for simulating radar reflectivities and millimeter wave brightness temperatures for precipitating scenes. To accomplish this, we extended the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) version 2.3 to solve the radiative transfer equation for active sensors and multiple scattering conditions. Early versions of ARTS (1.1) included a passive Monte Carlo solver, and ARTS is capable of handling atmospheres of up to three dimensions with ellipsoidal planetary geometries. The modular nature of ARTS facilitates extensibility, and the well-developed ray-tracing tools are suited for implementation of Monte Carlo algorithms. Finally, since ARTS handles the full Stokes vector, co- and cross-polarized reflectivity products are possible for scenarios that include nonspherical particles, with or without preferential alignment. The accuracy of the forward model will be demonstrated with precipitation events observed by TRMM and GPM, and the effects of multiple scattering will be detailed. The three-dimensional nature of the radiative transfer model will be useful for understanding the effects of nonuniform beamfill and multiple scattering for spatially heterogeneous precipitation events. The targets of this forward model are GPM (the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Esteban, Pere; Prohom, Marc; Aguilar, Enric; Mestre, Olivier
2010-05-01
approach, HOME). For precipitation, an additional test - RhTestV3 - was applied over the station data to ensure the homogeneity of the series. The analysis of the quality-controlled and homogenized maximum and minimum temperature series, shows an increase and statistically significant trend for the period 1934-2008. More precisely, the results are significant for both approaches (C3-SNHT and C-M) and for annual maximum temperature (0.12 and 0.10°C/decade, respectively), maximum summer temperature (0.25 and 0.17°C/decade, respectively), and minimum winter temperature (0.18 and 0.11°C/decade, respectively). The results were also obtained for the period 1971-2008. It is observed that the upward trend of the temperature has been reinforced in Andorra for this most recent period. Regarding precipitation, with the application of different tests, non-significant results for all the seasons and for the whole period (1934-2008) were obtained, so it cannot be concluded any increasing or decreasing trend. Nevertheless, preliminary results for the 1950-2008 period aim clearly towards a significant decrease of the annual total accumulation (-4.26mm/decade [being -7.80/-1.03, the confidence intervals at 95% level]), being especially relevant and also significant for the summer totals (-2.44 mm/decade [being -3.74/-1.13, the confidence intervals at 95% level]). The obtained trends for temperature agree with those obtained in Spain (Brunet et al., 2007), France (Spagnoli et al., 2002 and Maris et al., 2009) and Catalonia (Meteorological Service of Catalonia, 2008). Bibliography: - Brunet M, Jones PD, Sigró J, Saladié O, Aguilar E, Moberg A, Della-Marta PM, Lister D, Whalter A, López D. 2007. Temporal and spatial temperature variability and change over Spain during 1850-2005. Journal of Geophysical Research,, 112, D12117, doi:10.1029/2006JD008249 - Butlletí Anual d'Indicadors Climàtics, 2008 (BAIC,2008). Àrea de Climatologia, Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya. (http
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Blasing, T.J.; Stahle, D.W.; Duvick, D.N.
1988-01-01
A 231-year reconstruction of annual precipitation, from 1750 through 1980 A.D., was developed from 10 tree ring chronologies (9 post oak, Quercus stellata, and 1 white oak, Q. alba, series) in the south-central United States. Straight line regression was used to calibrate regionally averaged precipitation with ring width data, and the derived reconstruction was verified with independent climatic data and historical evidence. A variance trend in the tree ring data, which may have resulted from nonclimatic factors, was removed. The reconstructed precipitation series indicates that (1) a drought which appears to have been more severe than any in the instrumentalmore » record occurred about 1860 and (2) severe and prolonged droughts comparable to twentieth century events have occurred at roughly 15- to 25-years intervals throughout the past 231 years. It follows that serious droughts in the south-central United States could be expected to recur even in the absence of projected CO/sub 2/-induced warming.« less
Spatial distribution of precipitation extremes in Norway
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Skaugen, Thomas; Lenkoski, Alex; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Stordal, Frode; Førland, Eirik J.
2015-04-01
Estimates of extreme precipitation, in terms of return levels, are crucial in planning and design of important infrastructure. Through two separate studies, we have examined the levels and spatial distribution of daily extreme precipitation over catchments in Norway, and hourly extreme precipitation in a point. The analyses were carried out through the development of two new methods for estimating extreme precipitation in Norway. For daily precipitation we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to areal time series from a gridded dataset, consisting of daily precipitation during the period 1957-today with a resolution of 1x1 km². This grid-based method is more objective and less manual and time-consuming compared to the existing method at MET Norway. In addition, estimates in ungauged catchments are easier to obtain, and the GEV approach includes a measure of uncertainty, which is a requirement in climate studies today. Further, we go into depth on the debated GEV shape parameter, which plays an important role for longer return periods. We show that it varies according to dominating precipitation types, having positive values in the southeast and negative values in the southwest. We also find indications that the degree of orographic enhancement might affect the shape parameter. For hourly precipitation, we estimate return levels on a 1x1 km² grid, by linking GEV distributions with latent Gaussian fields in a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM). Generalized linear models on the GEV parameters, estimated from observations, are able to incorporate location-specific geographic and meteorological information and thereby accommodate these effects on extreme precipitation. Gaussian fields capture additional unexplained spatial heterogeneity and overcome the sparse grid on which observations are collected, while a Bayesian model averaging component directly assesses model uncertainty. We find that mean summer precipitation, mean summer temperature, latitude
Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.
Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella
2017-08-01
Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.
Mechem, David B.; Giangrande, Scott E.; Wittman, Carly S.; ...
2015-03-13
A case of shallow cumulus and precipitating cumulus congestus sampled at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) supersite is analyzed using a multi-sensor observational approach and numerical simulation. Observations from a new radar suite surrounding the facility are used to characterize the evolving statistical behavior of the precipitating cloud system. This is accomplished using distributions of different measures of cloud geometry and precipitation properties. Large-eddy simulation (LES) with size-resolved (bin) microphysics is employed to determine the forcings most important in producing the salient aspects of the cloud system captured in the radar observations. Our emphasis ismore » on assessing the importance of time-varying vs. steady-state large-scale forcing on the model's ability to reproduce the evolutionary behavior of the cloud system. Additional consideration is given to how the characteristic spatial scale and homogeneity of the forcing imposed on the simulation influences the evolution of cloud system properties. Results indicate that several new scanning radar estimates such as distributions of cloud top are useful to differentiate the value of time-varying (or at least temporally well-matched) forcing on LES solution fidelity.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak
2018-02-01
Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; McNulty, Steven G.; Caldwell, Peter V.; Cohen, Erika C.; Sun, Shanlei; Aldridge, Heather D.; Zhou, Decheng; Zhang, Liangxia; Zhang, Yang
2017-11-01
This study examines the relative roles of climatic variables in altering annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in the 21st century, using a monthly ecohydrological model (the Water Supply Stress Index model, WaSSI) driven with historical records and future scenarios constructed from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variation during the latest decades, but the role of temperature will outweigh that of precipitation in most regions if future climate change follows the projections of climate models instead of the historical tendencies. Besides these two key factors, increasing air humidity is projected to partially offset the additional evaporative demand caused by warming and consequently enhance runoff. Overall, the projections from 20 climate models suggest a high degree of consistency on the increasing trends in temperature, precipitation, and humidity, which will be the major climatic driving factors accounting for 43-50, 20-24, and 16-23 % of the runoff change, respectively. Spatially, while temperature rise is recognized as the largest contributor that suppresses runoff in most areas, precipitation is expected to be the dominant factor driving runoff to increase across the Pacific coast and the southwest. The combined effects of increasing humidity and precipitation may also surpass the detrimental effects of warming and result in a hydrologically wetter future in the east. However, severe runoff depletion is more likely to occur in the central CONUS as temperature effect prevails.
How well do the GCMs replicate the historical precipitation variability in the Colorado River Basin?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guentchev, G.; Barsugli, J. J.; Eischeid, J.; Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L.
2009-12-01
Observed precipitation variability measures are compared to measures obtained using the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) General Circulation Models (GCM) data from 36 model projections downscaled by Brekke at al. (2007) and 30 model projections downscaled by Jon Eischeid. Three groups of variability measures are considered in this historical period (1951-1999) comparison: a) basic variability measures, such as standard deviation, interdecadal standard deviation; b) exceedance probability values, i.e., 10% (extreme wet years) and 90% (extreme dry years) exceedance probability values of series of n-year running mean annual amounts, where n=1,12; 10% exceedance probability values of annual maximum monthly precipitation (extreme wet months); and c) runs variability measures, e.g., frequency of negative and positive runs of annual precipitation amounts, total number of the negative and positive runs. Two gridded precipitation data sets produced from observations are used: the Maurer et al. (2002) and the Daly et al. (1994) Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) data sets. The data consist of monthly grid-point precipitation averaged on a United States Geological Survey (USGS) hydrological sub-region scale. The statistical significance of the obtained model minus observed measure differences is assessed using a block bootstrapping approach. The analyses were performed on annual, seasonal and monthly scale. The results indicate that the interdecadal standard deviation is underestimated, in general, on all time scales by the downscaled model data. The differences are statistically significant at a 0.05 significance level for several Lower Colorado Basin sub-regions on annual and seasonal scale, and for several sub-regions located mostly in the Upper Colorado River Basin for the months of March, June, July and November. Although the models simulate drier extreme wet years, wetter extreme dry years
Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenfeld, Daniel; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Asmi, Ari; Chin, Mian; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Donovan, David P.; Kahn, Ralph; Kinne, Stefan; Kivekäs, Niku; Kulmala, Markku; Lau, William; Schmidt, K. Sebastian; Suni, Tanja; Wagner, Thomas; Wild, Martin; Quaas, Johannes
2014-12-01
Cloud drop condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and, consequently, cloud albedo and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosol-induced changes to precipitation. This can modify the reflected solar radiation and the thermal radiation emitted to space. Measurements of tropospheric CCN and IN over large areas have not been possible and can be only roughly approximated from satellite-sensor-based estimates of optical properties of aerosols. Our lack of ability to measure both CCN and cloud updrafts precludes disentangling the effects of meteorology from those of aerosols and represents the largest component in our uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing. Ways to improve the retrieval accuracy include multiangle and multipolarimetric passive measurements of the optical signal and multispectral lidar polarimetric measurements. Indirect methods include proxies of trace gases, as retrieved by hyperspectral sensors. Perhaps the most promising emerging direction is retrieving the CCN properties by simultaneously retrieving convective cloud drop number concentrations and updraft speeds, which amounts to using clouds as natural CCN chambers. These satellite observations have to be constrained by in situ observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate (ACPC) interactions, which in turn constrain a hierarchy of model simulations of ACPC. Since the essence of a general circulation model is an accurate quantification of the energy and mass fluxes in all forms between the surface, atmosphere and outer space, a route to progress is proposed here in the form of a series of box flux closure experiments in the various climate regimes. A roadmap is provided for quantifying the ACPC interactions and thereby reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mohr, Karen I.; Slayback, Daniel; Yager, Karina
2014-01-01
The central Andes extends from 7 deg to 21 deg S, with its eastern boundary defined by elevation (1000m and greater) and its western boundary by the coastline. The authors used a combination of surface observations, reanalysis, and the University of Utah Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation features (PF) database to understand the characteristics of convective systems and associated rainfall in the central Andes during the TRMM era, 1998-2012. Compared to other dry (West Africa), mountainous (Himalayas), and dynamically linked (Amazon) regions in the tropics, the central Andes PF population was distinct from these other regions, with small and weak PFs dominating its cumulative distribution functions and annual rainfall totals. No more than 10% of PFs in the central Andes met any of the thresholds used to identify and define deep convection (minimum IR cloud-top temperatures, minimum 85-GHz brightness temperature, maximum height of the 40-dBZ echo). For most of the PFs, available moisture was limited (less than 35mm) and instability low (less than 500 J kg(exp -1)). The central Andes represents a largely stable, dry to arid environment, limiting system development and organization. Hence, primarily short-duration events (less than 60 min) characterized by shallow convection and light to light-moderate rainfall rates (0.5-4.0 mm h(exp -1)) were found.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gutowski, William J.; Lindemulder, Elizabeth A.; Jovaag, Kari
1995-01-01
We use retrievals of atmospheric precipitable water from satellite microwave observations and analyses of near-surface temperature to examine the relationship between these two fields on daily and longer time scales. The retrieval technique producing the data used here is most effective over the open ocean, so the analysis focuses on the southern hemisphere's extratropics, which have an extensive ocean surface. For both the total and the eddy precipitable water fields, there is a close correspondence between local variations in the precipitable water and near-surface temperature. The correspondence appears particularly strong for synoptic and planetary scale transient eddies. More specifically, the results support a typical modeling assumption that transient eddy moisture fields are proportional to transient eddy temperature fields under the assumption f constant relative humidity.
Geostatistical Study of Precipitation on the Island of Crete
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Agou, Vasiliki D.; Varouchakis, Emmanouil A.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.
2015-04-01
Understanding and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation in the Mediterranean islands is an important topic of research, which is emphasized by alarming long-term predictions for increased drought conditions [4]. The analysis of records from drought-prone areas around the world has demonstrated that precipitation data are non-Gaussian. Typically, such data are fitted to the gamma distribution function and then transformed into a normalized index, the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [5]. The SPI can be defined for different time scales and has been applied to data from various regions [2]. Precipitation maps can be constructed using the stochastic method of Ordinary Kriging [1]. Such mathematical tools help to better understand the space-time variability and to plan water resources management. We present preliminary results of an ongoing investigation of the space-time precipitation distribution on the island of Crete (Greece). The study spans the time period from 1948 to 2012 and extends over an area of 8 336 km2. The data comprise monthly precipitation measured at 56 stations. Analysis of the data showed that the most severe drought occurred in 1950 followed by 1989, whereas the wettest year was 2002 followed by 1977. A spatial trend was observed with the spatially averaged annual precipitation in the West measured at about 450mm higher than in the East. Analysis of the data also revealed strong correlations between the precipitation in the western and eastern parts of the island. In addition to longitude, elevation (masl) was determined to be an important factor that exhibits strong linear correlation with precipitation. The precipitation data exhibit wet and dry periods with strong variability even during the wet period. Thus, fitting the data to specific probability distribution models has proved challenging. Different time scales, e.g. monthly, biannual, and annual have been investigated. Herein we focus on annual
AUREOL-3 observations of new boundaries in the auroral ion precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bosqued, Jean M.; Ashour-Abdalla, Maha; El Alaoui, Mostafa; Zelenyj, Lev M.; Berthlier, Annick
1993-01-01
Interesting and well-separated structures in the 1-20 keV ion precipitation pattern have been revealed by an analysis of more than 50 crossings of the nightside (21-03 MLT) auroral zone by the AUREOL-3 satellite. First, velocity-dispersed ion structures (VDIS) are crossed near the poleward edge of the oval, and are the best ionospheric signature of ion beams flowing along the plasma sheet boundary layer. Proceeding equatorward, a large majority of VDIS events are bounded by a new and interesting narrow band of strongly reduced precipitation, or a gap, which delineates VDIS from the diffuse precipitation region connected to the CPS. A statistical analysis shows that the gap has an extent of about 1-2 deg, which is almost independent of magnetic activity; its location, about 70 deg ILAT, shifts significantly equatorward with higher magnetic activity levels. Intense electron arcs are observed near the equatorward edge of the gap. An important result is that the overall sequence of VDIS-gap-CPS can be explained in terms of orbital dynamics in the tail. The gap in precipitation appears as the counterpart of the 'wall' regime in the equatorial plane, in which a cross-tail current carried by energetic ions is strongly enhanced between 8 and 12 R(E). This region has important consequences for the development of substorms.
Precipitation Characteristics in Tropical Africa Using Satellite and In-Situ Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dezfuli, Amin; Ichoku, Charles; Huffman, George; Mohr, Karen
2017-01-01
Tropical Africa receives nearly all its precipitation as a result of convection. The characteristics of rain-producing systems in this region, despite their crucial role in regional and global circulation, have not been well-understood. This is mainly due to the lack of in situ observations. Here, we have used precipitation records from the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO) to improve our knowledge about the rainfall systems in the region, and to validate the recently-released IMERG precipitation product. The high temporal resolution of the gauge data has allowed us to identify three classes of rain events based on their duration and intensity. The contribution of each class to the total rainfall and the favorable surface atmospheric conditions for each class have been examined. As IMERG aims to continue the legacy of its predecessor, TMPA, and provide higher resolution data, continent-wide comparisons are made between these two products. IMERG, due to its improved temporal resolution, shows some advantages over TMPA in capturing the diurnal cycle and propagation of the meso-scale convective systems. However, the performance of the two satellite-based products varies by season, region and the evaluation statistics. The results of this study serve as a basis for our ongoing work on the impacts of biomass burning on precipitation processes in Africa.
Climate-change signals in national atmospheric deposition program precipitation data
Wetherbee, Gregory A.; Mast, M. Alisa
2016-01-01
National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network precipitation type, snow-season duration, and annual timing of selected chemical wet-deposition maxima vary with latitude and longitude within a 35-year (1979–2013) data record for the contiguous United States and Alaska. From the NADP data collected within the region bounded by 35.6645°–48.782° north latitude and 124°–68° west longitude, similarities in latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of changing snow-season duration, fraction of annual precipitation recorded as snow, and the timing of chemical wet-deposition maxima, suggest that the chemical climate of the atmosphere is linked to physical changes in climate. Total annual precipitation depth has increased 4–6 % while snow season duration has decreased from approximately 7 to 21 days across most of the USA, except in higher elevation regions where it has increased by as much as 21 days. Snow-season precipitation is increasingly comprised of snow, but annually total precipitation is increasingly comprised of liquid precipitation. Meanwhile, maximum ammonium deposition occurs as much as 27 days earlier, and the maximum nitrate: sulfate concentration ratio in wet-deposition occurs approximately 10–21 days earlier in the year. The maximum crustal (calcium + magnesium + potassium) cation deposition occurs 2–35 days earlier in the year. The data suggest that these shifts in the timing of atmospheric wet deposition are linked to a warming climate, but the ecological consequences are uncertain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Erlingis, J. M.; Gourley, J. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Kalogiros, J. A.; Anagnostou, M.
2015-12-01
An Intensive Observation Period (IOP) for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), part of NASA's Ground Validation campaign for the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission satellite took place from May-June 2014 in the Smoky Mountains of western North Carolina. The National Severe Storms Laboratory's mobile dual-pol X-band radar, NOXP, was deployed in the Pigeon River Basin during this time and employed various scanning strategies, including more than 1000 Range Height Indicator (RHI) scans in coordination with another radar and research aircraft. Rain gauges and disdrometers were also positioned within the basin to verify precipitation estimates and estimation of microphysical parameters. The performance of the SCOP-ME post-processing algorithm on NOXP data is compared with real-time and near real-time precipitation estimates with varying spatial resolutions and quality control measures (Stage IV gauge-corrected radar estimates, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Quantitative Precipitation Estimates, and CMORPH satellite estimates) to assess the utility of a gap-filling radar in complex terrain. Additionally, the RHI scans collected in this IOP provide a valuable opportunity to examine the evolution of microphysical characteristics of convective and stratiform precipitation as they impinge on terrain. To further the understanding of orographically enhanced precipitation, multiple storms for which RHI data are available are considered.
High-resolution projections of mean and extreme precipitations over China through PRECIS under RCPs
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui; Wu, Yinghui
2018-06-01
The impact of global warming on the characteristics of mean and extreme precipitations over China is investigated by using the Providing REgional Climate Impacts for Studies (PRECIS) model. The PRECIS model was driven by the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 with Earth System components and coupling (HadGEM2-ES). The results of both models are analyzed in terms of mean precipitation and indices of precipitation extremes (R95p, R99p, SDII, WDF, and CWD) over China at the resolution of 25 km under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the baseline period (1976-2005) and two future periods (2036-2065 and 2070-2099). With improved resolution, the PRECIS model is able to better represent the fine-scale physical process than HadGEM2-ES. It can provide reliable spatial patterns of precipitation and its related extremes with high correlations to observations. Moreover, there is a notable improvement in temporal patterns simulation through the PRECIS model. The PRECIS model better reproduces the regional annual cycle and frequencies of daily precipitation intensity than its driving GCM. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both the HadGEM2-ES and the precis project increasing annual precipitation over the entire country for two future periods. Precipitation increase in winter is greater than the increase in summer. The results suggest that increased radiative forcing from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5 would further intensify the magnitude of projected precipitation changes by both PRECIS and HadGEM2-ES. For example, some parts of south China with decreased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect even less precipitation under RCP8.5; regions (northwest, northcentral and northeast China) with increased precipitation under RCP4.5 would expect more precipitation under RCP8.5. Apart from the projected increase in annual total precipitation, the results also suggest that there will be an increase in the days with precipitation higher than
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Li; Zhang, Fan; Zhang, Hongbo; Scott, Christopher A.; Zeng, Chen; Shi, Xiaonan
2018-01-01
Precipitation is one of the most critical inputs for models used to improve understanding of hydrological processes. In high mountain areas, it is challenging to generate a reliable precipitation data set capturing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity due to the harsh climate, extreme terrain and the lack of observations. This study conducts intensive observation of precipitation in the Mabengnong catchment in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau during July to August 2013. Because precipitation is greatly influenced by altitude, the observed data are used to characterize the precipitation gradient (PG) and hourly distribution (HD), showing that the average PG is 0.10, 0.28 and 0.26 mm/d/100 m and the average duration is around 0.1, 0.8 and 5.2 h for trace, light and moderate rain, respectively. A distributed biosphere hydrological model based on water and energy budgets with improved physical process for snow (WEB-DHM-S) is applied to simulate the hydrological processes with gridded precipitation data derived from a lower altitude meteorological station and the PG and HD characterized for the study area. The observed runoff, MODIS/Terra snow cover area (SCA) data, and MODIS/Terra land surface temperature (LST) data are used for model calibration and validation. Runoff, SCA and LST simulations all show reasonable results. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that runoff is largely underestimated without considering PG, indicating that short-term intensive precipitation observation has the potential to greatly improve hydrological modelling of poorly gauged high mountain catchments.
Köchy, Martin
2008-03-27
To improve the understanding of consequences of climate change for annual plant communities, I used a detailed, grid-based model that simulates the effect of daily rainfall variability on individual plants in five climatic regions on a gradient from 100 to 800 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). The model explicitly considers moisture storage in the soil. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by changing the daily mean rain (DMR, rain volume on rainy days averaged across years for each day of the year) by +/- 20%. At the same time I adjusted intervals appropriately between rainy days for keeping the mean annual volume constant. In factorial combination with changing DMR I also changed MAP by +/- 20%. Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and peak shoot biomass. Increasing DMR increased the time that water was continuously available to plants in the upper 15 to 30 cm of the soil (longest wet period, LWP). The effect of DMR diminished with increasing humidity of the climate. An interaction between water availability and density-dependent germination increased the establishment of seedlings in the arid region, but in the more humid regions the establishment of seedlings decreased with increasing DMR. As plants matured, competition among individuals and their productivity increased, but the size of these effects decreased with the humidity of the regions. Therefore, peak shoot biomass generally increased with increasing DMR but the effect size diminished from the semiarid to the mesic Mediterranean region. Increasing DMR reduced via LWP the annual variability of biomass in the semiarid and dry Mediterranean regions. More rainstorms (greater DMR) increased the recharge of soil water reservoirs in more arid sites with consequences for germination, establishment, productivity, and population persistence. The order of magnitudes of DMR and MAP overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate
Spatiotemporal variability of summer precipitation in southeastern Arizona
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
The Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in Southeastern Arizona covers ~150 km2 and receives the majority of its annual precipitation from highly variable and intermittent summer storms during the North American Monsoon. In this study the patterns of precipitation in the United States Departm...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mauritz, M.; Lipson, D.; Cleland, E. E.
2012-12-01
Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns, which will change the timing and amount of plant resources. Precipitation patterns determine water and nitrogen (N) availability, because water stimulates microbial N turnover and N transport. In order for plants to utilize water and N, they must coincide with the phenology and meet physiological requirements of the plant. As resource supply shifts, differences in species' ability to acquire resources will affect plant community composition. Semiarid ecosystems, such as shrublands in Southern California, are particularly sensitive to shifts in precipitation because they are severely water limited. This study takes advantage of the altered phenology and resource demands presented by invasive annual grasses in a native semiarid shrubland. The goal is to understand how altered precipitation patterns affect plant N uptake. Rainfall levels were manipulated to 50% and 150% of ambient levels. It is expected that higher rainfall levels promote annual grass invasion because grasses have higher water and N requirements and begin to grow earlier in the season than shrubs. A 15N tracer was added with the first rain event and plant samples were collected regularly to track the movement of N into the plants. Net soil N accumulation was determined using resin bags. Invasive grasses altered the timing and amount of N uptake but amount of rainfall had less effect on N distribution. 15N was detected sooner and at higher level in grasses than shrubs. 24hours after the first rain event 15N was detectable in grasses, 15N accumulated rapidly and peaked 2 months earlier than shrubs. Shrub 15N levels remained at pre-rain event levels for the first 2 months and began to increase at the beginning of spring, peak mid-spring and decline as the shrubs entered summer dormancy. One year later 15N levels in annual grass litter remained high, while 15N levels in shrubs returned to initial background levels as a result of resorption. 15N
Scaling of Precipitation Extremes Modelled by Generalized Pareto Distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajulapati, C. R.; Mujumdar, P. P.
2017-12-01
Precipitation extremes are often modelled with data from annual maximum series or peaks over threshold series. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is commonly used to fit the peaks over threshold series. Scaling of precipitation extremes from larger time scales to smaller time scales when the extremes are modelled with the GPD is burdened with difficulties arising from varying thresholds for different durations. In this study, the scale invariance theory is used to develop a disaggregation model for precipitation extremes exceeding specified thresholds. A scaling relationship is developed for a range of thresholds obtained from a set of quantiles of non-zero precipitation of different durations. The GPD parameters and exceedance rate parameters are modelled by the Bayesian approach and the uncertainty in scaling exponent is quantified. A quantile based modification in the scaling relationship is proposed for obtaining the varying thresholds and exceedance rate parameters for shorter durations. The disaggregation model is applied to precipitation datasets of Berlin City, Germany and Bangalore City, India. From both the applications, it is observed that the uncertainty in the scaling exponent has a considerable effect on uncertainty in scaled parameters and return levels of shorter durations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María
2017-04-01
Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature
Changes in temporal variability of precipitation over land due to anthropogenic forcings
Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok; Leung, L. Ruby
2017-02-02
This study investigated the anthropogenic influence on the temporal variability of annual precipitation for the period 1950-2005 as simulated by the CMIP5 models. The temporal variability of both annual precipitation amount (PRCPTOT) and intensity (SDII) was first measured using a metric of statistical dispersion called the Gini coefficient. Comparing simulations driven by both anthropogenic and natural forcings (ALL) with simulations of natural forcings only (NAT), we quantified the anthropogenic contributions to the changes in temporal variability at global, continental and sub-continental scales as a relative difference of the respective Gini coefficients of ALL and NAT. Over the period of 1950-2005,more » our results indicate that anthropogenic forcings have resulted in decreased uniformity (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) in annual precipitation amount and intensity at global as well as continental scales. In addition, out of the 21 sub-continental regions considered, 14 (PRCPTOT) and 17 (SDII) regions showed significant anthropogenic influences. The human impacts are generally larger for SDII compared to PRCTOT, indicating that the temporal variability of precipitation intensity is generally more susceptible to anthropogenic influence than precipitation amount. Lastly, the results highlight that anthropogenic activities have changed not only the trends but also the temporal variability of annual precipitation, which underscores the need to develop effective adaptation management practices to address the increased disparity.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.
2013-12-01
We use a suite of quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) derived from satellite, radar, surface observations, and models to derive precipitation characteristics over CONUS for the period 2002-2012. This comparison effort includes satellite multi-sensor datasets of TMPA 3B42, CMORPH, and PERSIANN. The satellite based QPEs are compared over the concurrent period with the NCEP Stage IV product, which is a near real time product providing precipitation data at the hourly temporal scale gridded at a nominal 4-km spatial resolution. In addition, remotely sensed precipitation datasets are compared with surface observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Daily) and from the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model), which provides gridded precipitation estimates that are used as a baseline for multi-sensor QPE products comparison. The comparisons are performed at the annual, seasonal, monthly, and daily scales with focus on selected river basins (Southeastern US, Pacific Northwest, Great Plains). While, unconditional annual rain rates present a satisfying agreement between all products, results suggest that satellite QPE datasets exhibit important biases in particular at higher rain rates (≥4 mm/day). Conversely, on seasonal scales differences between remotely sensed data and ground surface observations can be greater than 50% and up to 90% for low daily accumulation (≤1 mm/day) such as in the Western US (summer) and Central US (winter). The conditional analysis performed using different daily rainfall accumulation thresholds (from low rainfall intensity to intense precipitation) shows that while intense events measured at the ground are infrequent (around 2% for daily accumulation above 2 inches/day), remotely sensed products displayed differences from 20-50% and up to 90-100%. A discussion on the impact of differing spatial and temporal resolutions with respect to the datasets ability to capture extreme
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh
2015-04-01
Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest
Precipitation Recycling in the NASA GEOS Data Assimilation System
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried; Molod, Andrea; Takacs, Lawrence L.
1999-01-01
Analysis of precipitation recycling can improve the understanding of regional hydrologic anomalies, especially their evolution and maintenance. Diagnostic models of the recycling of precipitation and are applied to 15 years of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). Recycled precipitation is defined as the fraction of precipitation within a given region that originated as surface evaporation from the same region. The focus of the present work is on the interannual variability of the central United States hydrologic cycle and precipitation recycling. The extreme years of 1988 (drought) and 1993 (flood) are compared with the 15 year base period mean annual cycle. The results indicate that recycling ratio (the amount of precipitation with a local source relative to the total precipitation) is greater in 1988 than both the base period mean and the 1993 season (with 1993 recycling ratio less than the mean). On the other hand, both the summers of 1988 and 1993 show less total recycled precipitation than the mean. The results also show that precipitation recycling may have been more important in the spring of 1993, when the region was primed for flooding, than the summer, when the sever flooding occurred. The diagnostic approaches to precipitation recycling suffer from some weaknesses. Numerical simulations and assimilation using passive tracers have the potential to provide more accurate calculations of precipitation recycling and the remote sources of water. This ability is being incorporated into the latest GEOS data assimilation system, and some preliminary results will be presented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.
2015-12-01
Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit
Analyses of Chinese Hourly Precipitation Using Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates Products
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pan, Y.; Yu, J.; Shen, Y.
2010-12-01
Highly spatial-temporal and accurate precipitation analyses are essential for monitoring the catastrophic mesoscale weather systems, examining numerical model outputs, and doing dynamic researches on mesoscale meteorology. In recent years, Chinese government has gradually developed a ground-based observational net of 30000 auto-weather-stations (AWS) all over the country, most of which are in the eastern and southern China. The real-time data of gauged rainfall is transported to National Meteorological Information of China (NMIC) every hour, and its quality has been strictly and effectually controlled. Taking advantage of these resources, an hourly Chinese Precipitation Analyses Products (CPAP) with fine resolution is developed. But on the Tibetan Plateau where the AWS is still sparse, the accuracy of precipitation can not satisfy the operational needs yet. Otherwise, CMORPH has a well performance on the space structure of rainfall over China in warm season, but loses on intensity. Thus, we make a merge test analysis at resolution of 0.1 ×0.1 degree , using Optimum Interpolation (OI) to combine hourly CPAP with CMORPH estimates precipitation products. Before OI,the systematic bias in CMORPH have been partly corrected by gauge data through PDF adjustments. The validation of the merge test from June to August 2009 shows that, the combined products can obviously reduce the bias to the gauge analyses CPAP, and also have highly coefficient with it. It is more important that, the combined products provide a reasonable and full-covered precipitation structure over Tibetan Plateau.
Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation
Hinzman, Larry D.; Kane, Douglas L.; Oechel, Walter C.; Tweedie, Craig E.; Zona, Donatella
2017-01-01
Abstract Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end‐of‐winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999–2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low‐gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007–2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23–56% of end‐of‐winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long‐term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under‐represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year‐to‐year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end‐of‐winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes. PMID:29081549
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schiemann, Reinhard; Roberts, Charles J.; Bush, Stephanie; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.
2015-04-01
Precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of the precipitation generating atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. Global general circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally had very limited ability to capture this variability on the mesoscale (here ~50-500 km) due to their low resolution. This has changed with recent investments in resolution and ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations of atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) with ~25 km grid spacing are becoming increasingly available. Here, we evaluate the mesoscale precipitation distribution in one such set of simulations obtained in the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) modelling campaign with the HadGEM-GA3 AGCM. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products such as those provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale features of the precipitation distribution but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of independent estimates, the intercomparison of different observational datasets may be the only way to get some insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. Here, we focus on mid-latitude continental regions where observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available in addition to the global data sets: Europe/the Alps, South and East Asia, and the continental US. The ability of GCMs to represent mesoscale variability is of interest in its own right, as climate information on this scale is required by impact studies. An additional motivation for the research proposed here arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean
Annual asymmetry in thermospheric density: Observations and simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lei, Jiuhou; Dou, Xiankang; Burns, Alan; Wang, Wenbin; Luan, Xiaoli; Zeng, Zhen; Xu, Jiyao
2013-05-01
In this paper, the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations during 2002-2010 are utilized to study the variation of the annual asymmetry in thermospheric density at 400 km under low solar activity condition (F10.7 = 80) based on the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). The derived asymmetry index (AI) in thermospheric density from the EOF analysis shows a strong latitudinal variation at night but varies a little with latitudes in daytime. Moreover, it exhibits a terdiurnal tidal signature at low to middle latitudes. The global mean value of the AI is 0.191, indicating that a 47% difference in thermosphere between the December and June solstices in the global average. In addition, the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics Global Circulation Model (TIEGCM) is used to explore the possible mechanisms responsible for the observed annual asymmetry in thermospheric density. It is found that the standard simulations give a lower AI and also a weaker day-to-night difference. The simulated AI shows a semidiurnal pattern in the equatorial and low-latitude regions in contrast with the terdiurnal tide signature seen in the observed AI. The daily mean AI obtained from the simulation is 0.125, corresponding to a 29% December-to-June difference in thermospheric density at 400 km. Further sensitivity simulations demonstrated that the effect of the varying Sun-Earth distance between the December and June solstices is the main process responsible for the annual asymmetry in thermospheric density, while the magnetic field configuration and tides from the lower atmosphere contribute to the temporal and spatial variations of the AI. Specifically, the simulations show that the Sun-Earth distance effect explains 93% of the difference in thermospheric density between December and June, which is mainly associated with the corresponding changes in neutral temperature. However, our calculation from the
Barnett, Adrian Gerard
2016-01-01
Objective Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather–salmonellosis associations. Design We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. Results The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5°C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Conclusions Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather–salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis. PMID:26916693
Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hubbard, Laura E.; Tomer, Mark D.; James, D.E.
2016-01-01
Precipitation patterns and nutrient inputs affect transport of nitrate (NO3-N) and phosphorus (TP) from Midwest watersheds. Nutrient concentrations and yields from two subsurface-drained watersheds, the Little Cobb River (LCR) in southern Minnesota and the South Fork Iowa River (SFIR) in northern Iowa, were evaluated during 1996–2007 to document relative differences in timings and amounts of nutrients transported. Both watersheds are located in the prairie pothole region, but the SFIR exhibits a longer growing season and more livestock production. The SFIR yielded significantly more NO3-N than the LCR watershed (31.2 versus 21.3 kg NO3-N ha− 1 y− 1). The SFIR watershed also yielded more TP than the LCR watershed (1.13 versus 0.51 kg TP ha− 1 yr− 1), despite greater TP concentrations in the LCR. About 65% of NO3-N and 50% of TP loads were transported during April–June, and < 20% of the annual loads were transported later in the growing season from July–September. Monthly NO3-N and TP loads peaked in April from the LCR but peaked in June from the SFIR; this difference was attributed to greater snowmelt runoff in the LCR. The annual NO3-N yield increased with increasing annual runoff at a similar rate in both watersheds, but the LCR watershed yielded less annual NO3-N than the SFIR for a similar annual runoff. These two watersheds are within 150 km of one another and have similar dominant agricultural systems, but differences in climate and cropping inputs affected amounts and timing of nutrient transport.
On the sensitivity of annual streamflow to air temperature
Milly, Paul C.D.; Kam, Jonghun; Dunne, Krista A.
2018-01-01
Although interannual streamflow variability is primarily a result of precipitation variability, temperature also plays a role. The relative weakness of the temperature effect at the annual time scale hinders understanding, but may belie substantial importance on climatic time scales. Here we develop and evaluate a simple theory relating variations of streamflow and evapotranspiration (E) to those of precipitation (P) and temperature. The theory is based on extensions of the Budyko water‐balance hypothesis, the Priestley‐Taylor theory for potential evapotranspiration ( ), and a linear model of interannual basin storage. The theory implies that the temperature affects streamflow by modifying evapotranspiration through a Clausius‐Clapeyron‐like relation and through the sensitivity of net radiation to temperature. We apply and test (1) a previously introduced “strong” extension of the Budyko hypothesis, which requires that the function linking temporal variations of the evapotranspiration ratio (E/P) and the index of dryness ( /P) at an annual time scale is identical to that linking interbasin variations of the corresponding long‐term means, and (2) a “weak” extension, which requires only that the annual evapotranspiration ratio depends uniquely on the annual index of dryness, and that the form of that dependence need not be known a priori nor be identical across basins. In application of the weak extension, the readily observed sensitivity of streamflow to precipitation contains crucial information about the sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration and, thence, to temperature. Implementation of the strong extension is problematic, whereas the weak extension appears to capture essential controls of the temperature effect efficiently.
UC Irvine CHRS iRain - An Integrated System for Global Real-time Precipitation Observation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tran, H.; Nguyen, P.; Huynh, P.; Palacios, T.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.
2016-12-01
CHRS iRain developed by the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), University of California, Irvine is an integrated system for global real-time rainfall observation and visualization using multiple data sources from satellites, radars, gauges, and crowd sourcing. Its backbone is the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks - Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS, Hong et al. 2004). Apart from using traditional PERSIANN technique (Hsu et al. 1997), the PERSIANN-CCS also applies image processing and pattern recognition techniques, which significantly improve its accuracy as well as its temporal and spatial resolution (in hourly and 4 km x 4 km respectively). Although satellite-based precipitation products are developing fast, they are still relatively new compared with other precipitation observations by traditional measuring methods, such as radar or rain gauges. CHRS iRain also provides hourly precipitation information from NCEP Stage IV multi-sensor (radar + gauges) products and gauges with over 2000 NOAA River Forecast Center stations. On the website, users can retrieve data of the most recent 72 hour precipitation over different spatial regions regarding their own interests such as grid coordinate, rectangle, watershed, basin, political division, and country. CHRS iRain is a useful tool that provides important global rainfall information for water resources management and decision making for natural disasters such as flash floods, urban flooding, and river flooding. ACKNOWLEDGMENTSWe would like to acknowledge NASA, NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) National Weather Service (NWS), Cooperative Institue for Climate and Satellites (CICS), Army Research Office (ARO), ICIWaRM, and UNESCO for supporting this research.
Uncertainty in determining extreme precipitation thresholds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Bingjun; Chen, Junfan; Chen, Xiaohong; Lian, Yanqing; Wu, Lili
2013-10-01
Extreme precipitation events are rare and occur mostly on a relatively small and local scale, which makes it difficult to set the thresholds for extreme precipitations in a large basin. Based on the long term daily precipitation data from 62 observation stations in the Pearl River Basin, this study has assessed the applicability of the non-parametric, parametric, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) methods in determining extreme precipitation threshold (EPT) and the certainty to EPTs from each method. Analyses from this study show the non-parametric absolute critical value method is easy to use, but unable to reflect the difference of spatial rainfall distribution. The non-parametric percentile method can account for the spatial distribution feature of precipitation, but the problem with this method is that the threshold value is sensitive to the size of rainfall data series and is subjected to the selection of a percentile thus make it difficult to determine reasonable threshold values for a large basin. The parametric method can provide the most apt description of extreme precipitations by fitting extreme precipitation distributions with probability distribution functions; however, selections of probability distribution functions, the goodness-of-fit tests, and the size of the rainfall data series can greatly affect the fitting accuracy. In contrast to the non-parametric and the parametric methods which are unable to provide information for EPTs with certainty, the DFA method although involving complicated computational processes has proven to be the most appropriate method that is able to provide a unique set of EPTs for a large basin with uneven spatio-temporal precipitation distribution. The consistency between the spatial distribution of DFA-based thresholds with the annual average precipitation, the coefficient of variation (CV), and the coefficient of skewness (CS) for the daily precipitation further proves that EPTs determined by the DFA method
A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun; Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin
2018-03-01
In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the data sources and estimation methods of 30 currently available global precipitation data sets, including gauge-based, satellite-related, and reanalysis data sets. We analyzed the discrepancies between the data sets from daily to annual timescales and found large differences in both the magnitude and the variability of precipitation estimates. The magnitude of annual precipitation estimates over global land deviated by as much as 300 mm/yr among the products. Reanalysis data sets had a larger degree of variability than the other types of data sets. The degree of variability in precipitation estimates also varied by region. Large differences in annual and seasonal estimates were found in tropical oceans, complex mountain areas, northern Africa, and some high-latitude regions. Overall, the variability associated with extreme precipitation estimates was slightly greater at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. The reliability of precipitation data sets is mainly limited by the number and spatial coverage of surface stations, the satellite algorithms, and the data assimilation models. The inconsistencies described limit the capability of the products for climate monitoring, attribution, and model validation.
An assessment of differences in gridded precipitation datasets in complex terrain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Henn, Brian; Newman, Andrew J.; Livneh, Ben; Daly, Christopher; Lundquist, Jessica D.
2018-01-01
Hydrologic modeling and other geophysical applications are sensitive to precipitation forcing data quality, and there are known challenges in spatially distributing gauge-based precipitation over complex terrain. We conduct a comparison of six high-resolution, daily and monthly gridded precipitation datasets over the Western United States. We compare the long-term average spatial patterns, and interannual variability of water-year total precipitation, as well as multi-year trends in precipitation across the datasets. We find that the greatest absolute differences among datasets occur in high-elevation areas and in the maritime mountain ranges of the Western United States, while the greatest percent differences among datasets relative to annual total precipitation occur in arid and rain-shadowed areas. Differences between datasets in some high-elevation areas exceed 200 mm yr-1 on average, and relative differences range from 5 to 60% across the Western United States. In areas of high topographic relief, true uncertainties and biases are likely higher than the differences among the datasets; we present evidence of this based on streamflow observations. Precipitation trends in the datasets differ in magnitude and sign at smaller scales, and are sensitive to how temporal inhomogeneities in the underlying precipitation gauge data are handled.
75 FR 81201 - 2011 Annual Determination for Sea Turtle Observer Requirement
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-12-27
...-XA016 2011 Annual Determination for Sea Turtle Observer Requirement AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries... observers upon NMFS' request. The purpose of observing identified fisheries is to learn more about sea turtle interactions in a given fishery, evaluate existing measures to prevent or reduce prohibited sea...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neal, Jason J.; Rodger, Craig J.; Clilverd, Mark A.; Thomson, Neil R.; Raita, Tero; Ulich, Thomas
2015-03-01
We analyze observations of subionospherically propagating very low frequency (VLF) radio waves to determine outer radiation belt energetic electron precipitation (EEP) flux magnitudes. The radio wave receiver in Sodankylä, Finland (Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory) observes signals from the transmitter with call sign NAA (Cutler, Maine). The receiver is part of the Antarctic-Arctic Radiation-belt Dynamic Deposition VLF Atmospheric Research Konsortia (AARDDVARK). We use a near-continuous data set spanning November 2004 until December 2013 to determine the long time period EEP variations. We determine quiet day curves over the entire period and use these to identify propagation disturbances caused by EEP. Long Wave Propagation Code radio wave propagation modeling is used to estimate the precipitating electron flux magnitudes from the observed amplitude disturbances, allowing for solar cycle changes in the ambient D region and dynamic variations in the EEP energy spectra. Our method performs well during the summer months when the daylit ionosphere is most stable but fails during the winter. From the summer observations, we have obtained 693 days worth of hourly EEP flux magnitudes over the 2004-2013 period. These AARDDVARK-based fluxes agree well with independent satellite precipitation measurements during high-intensity events. However, our method of EEP detection is 10-50 times more sensitive to low flux levels than the satellite measurements. Our EEP variations also show good agreement with the variation in lower band chorus wave powers, providing some confidence that chorus is the primary driver for the outer belt precipitation we are monitoring.
Bias-correction of PERSIANN-CDR Extreme Precipitation Estimates Over the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Faridzad, M.; Yang, T.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.
2017-12-01
Ground-based precipitation measurements can be sparse or even nonexistent over remote regions which make it difficult for extreme event analysis. PERSIANN-CDR (CDR), with 30+ years of daily rainfall information, provides an opportunity to study precipitation for regions where ground measurements are limited. In this study, the use of CDR annual extreme precipitation for frequency analysis of extreme events over limited/ungauged basins is explored. The adjustment of CDR is implemented in two steps: (1) Calculated CDR bias correction factor at limited gauge locations based on the linear regression analysis of gauge and CDR annual maxima precipitation; and (2) Extend the bias correction factor to the locations where gauges are not available. The correction factors are estimated at gauge sites over various catchments, elevation zones, and climate regions and the results were generalized to ungauged sites based on regional and climatic similarity. Case studies were conducted on 20 basins with diverse climate and altitudes in the Eastern and Western US. Cross-validation reveals that the bias correction factors estimated on limited calibration data can be extended to regions with similar characteristics. The adjusted CDR estimates also outperform gauge interpolation on validation sites consistently. It is suggested that the CDR with bias adjustment has a potential for study frequency analysis of extreme events, especially for regions with limited gauge observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jung, Eunsil; Albrecht, Bruce A.; Feingold, Graham; Jonsson, Haflidi H.; Chuang, Patrick; Donaher, Shaunna L.
2016-07-01
Shallow marine cumulus clouds are by far the most frequently observed cloud type over the Earth's oceans; but they are poorly understood and have not been investigated as extensively as stratocumulus clouds. This study describes and discusses the properties and variations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation associated with shallow marine cumulus clouds observed in the North Atlantic trades during a field campaign (Barbados Aerosol Cloud Experiment- BACEX, March-April 2010), which took place off Barbados where African dust periodically affects the region. The principal observing platform was the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter (TO) research aircraft, which was equipped with standard meteorological instruments, a zenith pointing cloud radar and probes that measured aerosol, cloud, and precipitation characteristics.The temporal variation and vertical distribution of aerosols observed from the 15 flights, which included the most intense African dust event during all of 2010 in Barbados, showed a wide range of aerosol conditions. During dusty periods, aerosol concentrations increased substantially in the size range between 0.5 and 10 µm (diameter), particles that are large enough to be effective giant cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). The 10-day back trajectories showed three distinct air masses with distinct vertical structures associated with air masses originating in the Atlantic (typical maritime air mass with relatively low aerosol concentrations in the marine boundary layer), Africa (Saharan air layer), and mid-latitudes (continental pollution plumes). Despite the large differences in the total mass loading and the origin of the aerosols, the overall shapes of the aerosol particle size distributions were consistent, with the exception of the transition period.The TO was able to sample many clouds at various phases of growth. Maximum cloud depth observed was less than ˜ 3 km, while most clouds were less than 1 km
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.
2014-02-01
The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Clilverd, Mark A.; Cobbett, Neil; Rodger, Craig J.; Brundell, James B.; Denton, Michael H.; Hartley, David P.; Rodriguez, Juan V.; Danskin, Donald; Raita, Tero; Spanswick, Emma L.
2013-11-01
from two autonomous VLF radio receiver systems installed in a remote region of the Antarctic in 2012 is used to take advantage of the juxtaposition of the L = 4.6 contour, and the Hawaii-Halley, Antarctica, great circle path as it passes over thick Antarctic ice shelf. The ice sheet conductivity leads to high sensitivity to changing D region conditions, and the quasi constant L shell highlights outer radiation belt processes. The ground-based instruments observed several energetic electron precipitation events over a moderately active 24 h period, during which the outer radiation belt electron flux declined at most energies and subsequently recovered. Combining the ground-based data with low and geosynchronous orbiting satellite observations on 27 February 2012, different driving mechanisms were observed for three precipitation events with clear signatures in phase space density and electron anisotropy. Comparison between flux measurements made by Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) in low Earth orbit and by the Antarctic instrumentation provides evidence of different cases of weak and strong diffusion into the bounce loss cone, helping to understand the physical mechanisms controlling the precipitation of energetic electrons into the atmosphere. Strong diffusion events occurred as the <600 keV fluxes began to recover as a result of adiabatic transport of electrons. One event appeared to have a factor of about 10 to 100 times more flux than was reported by POES, consistent with weak diffusion into the bounce loss cone. Two events had a factor of about 3 to 10 times more >30 keV flux than was reported by POES, more consistent with strong diffusion conditions.
Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone
2017-04-01
Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of
Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio
2018-02-01
This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.
Using Observations from GPM and CloudSat to Produce a Climatology of Precipitation over the Ocean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayden, L.; Liu, C.
2017-12-01
Satellite based instruments are essential to the observation of precipitation at a global scale, especially over remote oceanic regions. Each instrument has its own strengths and limitations when it comes to accurately determining the rate of precipitation occurring at the surface. By using the complementary strengths of two satellite based instruments, we attempt to produce a more complete climatology of global oceanic precipitation. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Osbervatory's Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) is capable of measuring precipitation producing radar reflectivity above 12 dBZ [Hamada and Takayabu 2016]. The CloudSat satellite's Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) uses higher frequency C band (94 GHz) radiation, and is therefore capable of measuring precipitation occurring at low precipitation rates which are not detected by the GPM DPR. The precipitation estimates derived by the two satellites are combined and the results are examined. CloudSat data from July 2006 to December 2010 are used. GPM data from March 2014 through May 2016 are used. Since the two datasets do not temporally overlap, this study is conducted from a climatological standpoint. The average occurrence for different precipitation rates is calculated for both satellites. To produce the combined dataset, the precipitation from CloudSat are used for the low precipitation rates while CloudSat precipitation amount is greater than that from GPM DPR, until GPM DPR precipitation amount is higher than that from CloudSat, at which precipitation rate data from the GPM are used. By combining the two datasets, we discuss the seasonal and geo-graphical distribution of weak precipitation detected by CloudSat that is beyond the sensitivity of GPM DPR. We also hope to gain a more complete picture of the precipitation that occurs over oceanic regions.
Mercury in Precipitation in Indiana, January 2004-December 2005
Risch, Martin R.; Fowler, Kathleen K.
2008-01-01
and 2005 was in the top 25 percent of the NADP-MDN stations in eastern North America. Mercury concentrations and deposition varied at the five monitoring stations during 2004-2005. Mercury concentrations in wet-deposition samples ranged from 1.2 to 116.6 ng/L and weekly mercury deposition ranged from 0.002 to 1.74 ug/m2. Data from weekly samples exhibited seasonal patterns. During April through September, total mercury concentrations and deposition were higher than the median for all samples. Annual precipitation at four of the five monitoring stations was within 10 percent of normal both years, with the exception of Indiana Dunes, where precipitation was 23 percent below normal in 2005. Episodes of high mercury deposition, which were the top 10 percent of weekly mercury deposition at the five monitoring stations, contributed 39 percent of all mercury deposition during 2004-2005. Mercury deposition more than 1.04 ug/m2 (5 times the mean weekly deposition) was recorded for 12 samples. These episodes of highest mercury deposition were recorded at all five monitoring stations, but the most (7 of 12) were at Clifty Falls and contributed 34.4 percent of the total deposition at that station during 2004-2005. Weekly samples with high mercury deposition may help to explain the differences in annual mercury deposition among the five monitoring stations in Indiana. A statistical evaluation of the monitoring data for 2001-2005 indicated several statistically significant temporal trends. A statewide (5-station) decrease (p = 0.007) in mercury deposition and a statewide decrease (p = 0.059) in mercury concentration were shown. Decreases in mercury deposition (p = 0.061 and p = 0.083) were observed at Roush Lake and Bloomington. A statistically significant trend was not observed for precipitation at the five monitoring stations during this 5-year period. A potential explanation for part of the statewide decrease in mercury concentration and mercury deposition was a 2
Instability and its relation to precipitation over the Eastern Iberian Peninsula
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iturrioz, I.; Hernández, E.; Ribera, P.; Queralt, S.
2007-04-01
Synoptic situations producing rainfall at four rawinsonde observatories at eastern Spain are classified as stratiform or convective depending on dynamic and thermodynamic instability indices. Two daily radiosonde and daily-accumulated precipitation data from four observatories in Eastern Spain are used: Madrid-Barajas (MB), Murcia (MU), Palma de Mallorca (PA) and Zaragoza (ZA). We calculated two thermodynamic instability indices from radiosonde data: CAPE and LI. Likewise, from ERA40 reanalysis data we have calculated the Q vector divergence over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands, as a parameter describing dynamical instability. Synoptic situations producing rainfall were classified as convective or stratiform, satisfying a criterion based on the values of dynamic and thermodynamic indices at each observatory. It is observed that the number of days with stratiform precipitation related to the total number of precipitation days follows a consistent annual pattern.
Investigating Satellite Microwave observations of Precipitation in Different Climate Regimes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.
2013-12-01
Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperature characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The original data sets will focus on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total perceptible water. We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of ancillary data (e.g., land surface temperature, snow cover/water equivalent, etc.) to improve precipitation estimation over land in different climate regimes, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo
2013-02-01
SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.
Blasing, T. J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Duvick, D. N. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Building Technologies Research and Integration Center (BTRIC)
2012-01-01
Tree core samples (4 mm in diameter) were extracted from the trunks of white oak (Quercus alba) at three sites in central Iowa (Duvick Back Woods, Ledges State Park, and Pammel). At least 60 trees were sampled at each site, and at least two cores were taken from each tree. The growth rings of each core were dated by calendar year and measured; the measurements were then transformed into dimensionless ring-width indices and correlated with annual precipitation. Data were collected for the years 1680 through 1979. Each tree ring was characterized by the site, year, tree-ring-width index, number of core samples, decade year, and the annual reconstructed precipitation estimate. These data have more than 50% of their variance in common with the known annual statewide average precipitation for Iowa and serve as useful indicators of the precipitation and drought history of the region for the past 300 years. The data are in two files: tree-ring-chronology data (8 kB) and the annual reconstructed precipitation data for central Iowa (2 kB).
Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bounoui, Lahouari
2012-01-01
Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Faulk, S.; Moon, S.; Mitchell, J.; Lora, J. M.
2016-12-01
Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by extensive observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability and resulting relative erosion rates within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.
Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?
Levine, J.M.; Kathryn, Mceachern A.; Cowan, C.
2010-01-01
Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial, As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little
Climatology of monsoon precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from 13-year TRMM observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aijuan, Bai; Guoping, Li
2016-10-01
Based on the 13-year data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite during 2001-2013, the influencing geographical location of the Tibetan Plateau (Plateau) monsoon is determined. It is found that the domain of the Plateau monsoon is bounded by the latitude between 27° N and 37° N and the longitude between 60° E and 103° E. According to the annual relative precipitation, the Plateau monsoon can be divided into three sections: the Plateau winter monsoon (PWM) over Iran and Afghanistan, the Plateau summer monsoon (PSM) over the central Plateau, and the transiting zone of the Plateau monsoon (TPM) over the south, west, and east edges of the Plateau. In PWM and PSM, the monsoon climatology has a shorter rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of less than 800 mm. In TPM, it has a longer rainy season with the mean annual rainfall of more than 1800 mm. PWM experiences a single-peak monthly rainfall with the peak during January to March; PSM usually undergoes a multi-peak pattern with peaks in the warm season; TPM presents a double-peak pattern, with a strong peak in late spring to early summer and a secondary peak in autumn. The Plateau monsoon also characterizes an asymmetrical seasonal advance of the rain belt. In the east of the Plateau, the rain belt migrates in a south-north orientation under the impact of the tropical and subtropical systems' oscillation. In the west of the Plateau, the rain belt advances in an east-west direction, which is mainly controlled by the regional Plateau monsoon.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barras, Vaughan; Simmonds, Ian
2010-05-01
The application of stable water isotopes as tracers of moisture throughout the hydrological cycle is often hindered by the relatively coarse temporal and spatial resolution of observational data. Intensive observation periods (IOPs) of isotopes in precipitation have been valuable in this regard enabling the quantification of the effects of vapour recycling, convection, cloud top height and droplet reevaporation (Dansgaard, 1953; Miyake et al., 1968; Gedzelman and Lawrence, 1982; 1990; Pionke and DeWalle, 1992; Risi et al., 2008; 2009) and have been used as a basis to develop isotope models of varying complexity (Lee and Fung, 2008; Bony et al., 2008). This study took a unified approach combining observation and modelling of stable isotopes in precipitation in an investigation of three key circulation types that typically bring rainfall to southeastern Australia. The observational component of this study involved the establishment of the Melbourne University Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (MUNIP). MUNIP was devised to sample rainwater simultaneously at a number of collection sites across greater Melbourne to record the spatial and temporal isotopic variability of precipitation during the passage of particular events. Samples were collected at half-hourly intervals for three specific rain events referred to as (1) mixed-frontal, (2) convective, and (3) stratiform. It was found that the isotopic content for each event varied over both high and low frequencies due to influences from local changes in rain intensity and large scale rainout respectively. Of particular note was a positive relationship between deuterium excess and rainfall amount under convective conditions. This association was less well defined for stratiform rainfall. As a supplement to the data coverage of the observations, the events were simulated using a version of NCAR CAM3 running with an isotope hydrology scheme. This was done by periodically nudging the model dynamics with data from the
Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region.
Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin
2017-05-01
The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.
Forest dynamics to precipitation and temperature in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Tianyu; Meng, Qingmin
2017-05-01
The forest is one of the most significant components of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coast. It provides livelihood to inhabitant and is known to be sensitive to climatic fluctuations. This study focuses on examining the impacts of temperature and precipitation variations on coastal forest. Two different regression methods, ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR), were employed to reveal the relationship between meteorological variables and forest dynamics. OLS regression analysis shows that changes in precipitation and temperature, over a span of 12 months, are responsible for 56% of NDVI variation. The forest, which is not particularly affected by the average monthly precipitation in most months, is observed to be affected by cumulative seasonal and annual precipitation explicitly. Temperature and precipitation almost equally impact on NDVI changes; about 50% of the NDVI variations is explained in OLS modeling, and about 74% of the NDVI variations is explained in GWR modeling. GWR analysis indicated that both precipitation and temperature characterize the spatial heterogeneity patterns of forest dynamics.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María
2016-04-01
, with the exception of the average annual mean and maximum daily temperature. In the case of the snow-related variables, no significant trends are observed at this time scale; nonetheless, a global decreasing rate is predominant in most of the variables. The torrential events are more frequent in the last decades of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. This study constitutes a first sound analysis of the long-term observed trends of the snow regime in this area under the context of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation regimes. The results highlight the complexity of non-linearity in environmental processes in Mediterranean regions, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area.
Stauffer, Reto; Mayr, Georg J; Messner, Jakob W; Umlauf, Nikolaus; Zeileis, Achim
2017-06-15
Flexible spatio-temporal models are widely used to create reliable and accurate estimates for precipitation climatologies. Most models are based on square root transformed monthly or annual means, where a normal distribution seems to be appropriate. This assumption becomes invalid on a daily time scale as the observations involve large fractions of zero observations and are limited to non-negative values. We develop a novel spatio-temporal model to estimate the full climatological distribution of precipitation on a daily time scale over complex terrain using a left-censored normal distribution. The results demonstrate that the new method is able to account for the non-normal distribution and the large fraction of zero observations. The new climatology provides the full climatological distribution on a very high spatial and temporal resolution, and is competitive with, or even outperforms existing methods, even for arbitrary locations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.
2017-12-01
Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.
Computation of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation amounts.
Beguería, Santiago; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Tomas-Burguera, Miquel
2018-10-01
Rainfall erosivity is an important parameter in many erosion models, and the EI30 defined by the Universal Soil Loss Equation is one of the best known erosivity indices. One issue with this and other erosivity indices is that they require continuous breakpoint, or high frequency time interval, precipitation data. These data are rare, in comparison to more common medium-frequency data, such as daily precipitation data commonly recorded by many national and regional weather services. Devising methods for computing estimates of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation data that are comparable to those obtained by using high-frequency data is, therefore, highly desired. Here we present a method for producing such estimates, based on optimal regression tools such as the Gamma Generalised Linear Model and universal kriging. Unlike other methods, this approach produces unbiased and very close to observed EI30, especially when these are aggregated at the annual level. We illustrate the method with a case study comprising more than 1500 high-frequency precipitation records across Spain. Although the original records have a short span (the mean length is around 10 years), computation of spatially-distributed upscaling parameters offers the possibility to compute high-resolution climatologies of the EI30 index based on currently available, long-span, daily precipitation databases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saidi, Helmi; Ciampittiello, Marzia; Dresti, Claudia; Ghiglieri, Giorgio
2013-07-01
Alpine and Mediterranean areas are undergoing a profound change in the typology and distribution of rainfall. In particular, there has been an increase in consecutive non-rainy days, and an escalation of extreme rainy events. The climatic characteristic of extreme precipitations over short-term intervals is an object of study in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, the second largest freshwater basin in Italy (located in the north-west of the country) and an important resource for tourism, fishing and commercial flower growing. The historical extreme rainfall series with high-resolution from 5 to 45 min and above: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h collected at different gauges located at representative sites in the watershed of Lake Maggiore, have been computed to perform regional frequency analysis of annual maxima precipitation based on the L-moments approach, and to produce growth curves for different return-period rainfall events. Because of different rainfall-generating mechanisms in the watershed of Lake Maggiore such as elevation, no single parent distribution could be found for the entire study area. This paper concerns an investigation designed to give a first view of the temporal change and evolution of annual maxima precipitation, focusing particularly on both heavy and extreme events recorded at time intervals ranging from few minutes to 24 h and also to create and develop an extreme storm precipitation database, starting from historical sub-daily precipitation series distributed over the territory. There have been two-part changes in extreme rainfall events occurrence in the last 23 years from 1987 to 2009. Little change is observed in 720 min and 24-h precipitations, but the change seen in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, 60, 120, 180 and 360 min events is significant. In fact, during the 2000s, growth curves have flattened and annual maxima have decreased.
The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes
Polade, Suraj; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D.
2014-01-01
Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann M.; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben
2011-01-01
The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.
Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.
2014-02-25
Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less
Wieczorek, Michael; LaMotte, Andrew E.
2010-01-01
This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). The source data were the United States Average Monthly or Annual Minimum Precipitation, 1971 - 2000 raster data set produced by the PRISM Group at Oregon State University. The MRB_E2RF1 catchments are based on a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) ERF1_2 and include enhancements to support national and regional-scale surface-water quality modeling (Nolan and others, 2002; J.W. Brakebill, U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 2008). Data were compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment for the conterminous United States covering New England and Mid-Atlantic (MRB1), South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee (MRB2), the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy (MRB3), the Missouri (MRB4), the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas-White-Red, and Texas-Gulf (MRB5), the Rio Grande, Colorado, and the Great basin (MRB6), the Pacific Northwest (MRB7) river basins, and California (MRB8).
Precipitation Indices Low Countries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
van Engelen, A. F. V.; Ynsen, F.; Buisman, J.; van der Schrier, G.
2009-09-01
Since 1995, KNMI published a series of books(1), presenting an annual reconstruction of weather and climate in the Low Countries, covering the period AD 763-present, or roughly, the last millennium. The reconstructions are based on the interpretation of documentary sources predominantly and comparison with other proxies and instrumental observations. The series also comprises a number of classifications. Amongst them annual classifications for winter and summer temperature and for winter and summer dryness-wetness. The classification of temperature have been reworked into peer reviewed (2) series (AD 1000-present) of seasonal temperatures and temperature indices, the so called LCT (Low Countries Temperature) series, now incorporated in the Millennium databases. Recently we started a study to convert the dryness-wetness classifications into a series of precipitation; the so called LCP (Low Countries Precipitation) series. A brief outline is given here of the applied methodology and preliminary results. The WMO definition for meteorological drought has been followed being that a period is called wet respectively dry when the amount of precipitation is considerable more respectively less than usual (normal). To gain a more quantitative insight for four locations, geographically spread over the Low Countries area (De Bilt, Vlissingen, Maastricht and Uccle), we analysed the statistics of daily precipitation series, covering the period 1900-present. This brought us to the following definition, valid for the Low Countries: A period is considered as (very) dry respectively (very) wet if over a continuous period of at least 60 days (~two months) cq 90 days (~three months) on at least two out of the four locations 50% less resp. 50% more than the normal amount for the location (based on the 1961-1990 normal period) has been measured. This results into the following classification into five drought classes hat could be applied to non instrumental observations: Very wet period
Soil moisture - precipitation feedbacks in observations and models (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taylor, C.
2013-12-01
There is considerable uncertainty about the strength, geographical extent, and even the sign of feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation. Whilst precipitation trivially increases soil moisture, the impact of soil moisture, via surface fluxes, on convective rainfall is far from straight-forward, and likely depends on space and time scale, soil and synoptic conditions, and the nature of the convection itself. In considering how daytime convection responds to surface fluxes, large-scale models based on convective parameterisations may not necessarily provide reliable depictions, particularly given their long-standing inability to reproduce a realistic diurnal cycle of convection. On the other hand, long-term satellite data provide the potential to establish robust relationships between soil moisture and precipitation across the world, notwithstanding some fundamental weaknesses and uncertainties in the datasets. Here, results from regional and global satellite-based analyses are presented. Globally, using 3-hourly precipitation and daily soil moisture datasets, a methodology has been developed to compare the statistics of antecedent soil moisture in the region of localised afternoon rain events (Taylor et al 2012). Specifically the analysis tests whether there are any significant differences in pre-event soil moisture between rainfall maxima and nearby (50-100km) minima. The results reveal a clear signal across a number of semi-arid regions, most notably North Africa, indicating a preference for afternoon rain over drier soil. Analysis by continent and by climatic zone reveals that this signal (locally a negative feedback) is evident in other continents and climatic zones, but is somewhat weaker. This may be linked to the inherent geographical differences across the world, as detection of a feedback requires water-stressed surfaces coincident with frequent active convective initiations. The differences also reflect the quality and utility of the soil moisture
Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Song, Hua; Lin, Wuyin; Lin, Yanluan; Wolf, Audrey B.; Neggers, Roel; Donner, Leo J.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Liu, Yangang
2013-01-01
This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.
Assimilation of Precipitation Measurement Missions Microwave Radiance Observations With GEOS-5
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jin, Jianjun; Kim, Min-Jeong; McCarty, Will; Akella, Santha; Gu, Wei
2015-01-01
The Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) Core Observatory satellite was launched in February, 2014. The GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) is a conically scanning radiometer measuring 13 channels ranging from 10 to 183 GHz and sampling between 65 S 65 N. This instrument is a successor to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), which has observed 9 channels at frequencies ranging 10 to 85 GHz between 40 S 40 N since 1997. This presentation outlines the base procedures developed to assimilate GMI and TMI radiances in clear-sky conditions, including quality control methods, thinning decisions, and the estimation of, observation errors. This presentation also shows the impact of these observations when they are incorporated into the GEOS-5 atmospheric data assimilation system.
Influence of sea ice on Arctic precipitation
Kopec, Ben G.; Feng, Xiahong; Michel, Fred A.; Posmentier, Eric S.
2016-01-01
Global climate is influenced by the Arctic hydrologic cycle, which is, in part, regulated by sea ice through its control on evaporation and precipitation. However, the quantitative link between precipitation and sea ice extent is poorly constrained. Here we present observational evidence for the response of precipitation to sea ice reduction and assess the sensitivity of the response. Changes in the proportion of moisture sourced from the Arctic with sea ice change in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland Sea regions over the past two decades are inferred from annually averaged deuterium excess (d-excess) measurements from six sites. Other influences on the Arctic hydrologic cycle, such as the strength of meridional transport, are assessed using the North Atlantic Oscillation index. We find that the independent, direct effect of sea ice on the increase of the percentage of Arctic sourced moisture (or Arctic moisture proportion, AMP) is 18.2 ± 4.6% and 10.8 ± 3.6%/100,000 km2 sea ice lost for each region, respectively, corresponding to increases of 10.9 ± 2.8% and 2.7 ± 1.1%/1 °C of warming in the vapor source regions. The moisture source changes likely result in increases of precipitation and changes in energy balance, creating significant uncertainty for climate predictions. PMID:26699509
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krueger, S. K.; Zulauf, M. A.; Li, Y.; Zipser, E. J.
2005-05-01
Global satellite datasets such as those produced by ISCCP, ERBE, and CERES provide strong observational constraints on cloud radiative properties. Such observations have been widely used for model evaluation, tuning, and improvement. Cloud radiative properties depend primarily on small, non-precipitating cloud droplets and ice crystals, yet the dynamical, microphysical and radiative processes which produce these small particles often involve large, precipitating hydrometeors. There now exists a global dataset of tropical cloud system precipitation feature (PF) properties, collected by TRMM and produced by Steve Nesbitt, that provides additional observational constraints on cloud system properties. We are using the TRMM PF dataset to evaluate the precipitation microphysics of two simulations of deep, precipitating, convective cloud systems: one is a 29-day summertime, continental case (ARM Summer 1997 SCM IOP, at the Southern Great Plains site); the second is a tropical maritime case: the Kwajalein MCS of 11-12 August 1999 (part of a 52-day simulation). Both simulations employed the same bulk, three-ice category microphysical parameterization (Krueger et al. 1995). The ARM simulation was executed using the UCLA/Utah 2D CRM, while the KWAJEX simulation was produced using the 3D CSU CRM (SAM). The KWAJEX simulation described above is compared with both the actual radar data and the TRMM statistics. For the Kwajalein MCS of 11 to 12 August 1999, there are research radar data available for the lifetime of the system. This particular MCS was large in size and rained heavily, but it was weak to average in measures of convective intensity, against the 5-year TRMM sample of 108. For the Kwajalein MCS simulation, the 20 dBZ contour is at 15.7 km and the 40 dBZ contour at 14.5 km! Of all 108 MCSs observed by TRMM, the highest value for the 40 dBZ contour is 8 km. Clearly, the high reflectivity cores are off scale compared with observed cloud systems in this area. A similar
Exploring the new long-term (150 years) precipitation dataset in Azores archipelago
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Kutiel, Haim; Valente, Maria A.; Sigró, Javier
2015-04-01
Within the scope of the two major international projects of long-term reanalysis for the 20th century coordinated by NOAA (Compo et al. 2011) and ECMWF (Hersbach et al. 2013) the IDL Institute from the University of Lisbon has digitized a large number of long-term stations records from Portugal and former Portuguese Colonies (Stickler et al. 2014). Recently we have finished the digitization of all precipitation values from Ponta Delgada (capital of the Azores archipelago) obtaining an uninterrupted precipitation monthly time series since 1864 and additionally an almost complete corresponding daily precipitation series, with the exception of some years (1864/1872; 1878/1879; 1888/1905; 1931; 1936 and 1938) for which only monthly values are available. Here, we present an annually, seasonally and daily resolution study of the rainfall regime in Ponta Delgada for the last 150 years and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence over this precipitation regime. The distribution of precipitation presents an evident seasonal pattern, with a strong difference between the 'rainy season' (November/March) and the 'dry season' (June/August) with very little rainfall. April/May and September/October correspond to the transitional seasons. The mean annual rainfall in Ponta Delgada is approximately 910 mm and is accumulated (on average) in about 120 rainy days. The precipitation regime in Azores archipelago reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The entire studied period (1865-2012) shows an increase in the rainfall conditions between a drier earlier period (1865-1938) and a wetter recent period (1939-2012). At daily resolution, we have used an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells (consecutive days with rainfall accumulation) that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime (Kutiel and Trigo, 2014). This approach
Chapter 7: Precipitation Change in the United States
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Easterling, D. R.; Kunkel, K. E.; Arnold, J. R.; Knutson, T.; LeGrande, A. N.; Leung, L. R.; Vose, R. S.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.
2017-01-01
Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 is mostly a result of large increases in the fall season. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901. There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States. In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)-the main mechanism for warm season precipitation in the central part of the United States-have increased in occurrence and precipitation amounts since 1979. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to increase over the 21st century (high confidence). Mesoscale convective systems in the central United States are expected to continue to increase in number and intensity in the future. There are, however, important regional and seasonal differences in projected changes in total precipitation: the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation in the winter and spring, and parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover extent, North America maximum snow depth, snow water equivalent in the western United States, and extreme snowfall years in the southern and western United States have all declined, while extreme snowfall years in parts of the northern United States have increased. Projections indicate large declines in snowpack in the western United States and shifts to more precipitation falling as rain than snow in the cold season in many parts of the central and eastern United States.
Harmonic analysis of the precipitation in Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nastos, P. T.; Zerefos, C. S.
2009-04-01
Greece is a country with a big variety of climates due to its geographical position, to the many mountain ranges and also to the multifarious and long coastline. The mountainous volumes are of such orientation that influences the distribution of the precipitation, having as a result, Western Greece to present great differentiations from Central and Eastern Greece. The application of harmonic analysis to the annual variability of precipitation is the goal of this study, so that the components, which compose the annual variability, be elicited. For this purpose, the mean monthly precipitation data from 30 meteorological stations of National Meteorological Service were used for the time period 1950-2000. The initial target is to reduce the number of variables and to detect structure in the relationships between variables. The most commonly used technique for this purpose is the application of Factor Analysis to a table having as columns the meteorological stations-variables and rows the monthly mean precipitation, so that 2 main factors were calculated, which explain the 98% of total variability of precipitation in Greece. Factor 1, representing the so-called uniform field and interpreting the most of the total variance, refers in fact to the Mediterranean depressions, affecting mainly the West of Greece and also the East Aegean and the Asia Minor coasts. In the process, the Fourier Analysis was applied to the factor scores extracted from the Factor Analysis, so that 2 harmonic components are resulted, which explain above the 98% of the total variability of each main factor, and are due to different synoptic and thermodynamic processes associated with Greece's precipitation construction. Finally, the calculation of the time of occurrence of the maximum precipitation, for each harmonic component of each one of the two main factors, gives the spatial distribution of appearance of the maximum precipitation in the Hellenic region.
Climate Change in the Western United States: Projections and Observations (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Redmond, K. T.
2009-12-01
The interplay between projections and observations of climate, and the role of observations as they unfold, form the primary emphasis for this talk. The consensus among climate projections is that the Western United States will warm, and that annual precipitation will increase near the Canada/US border and decrease near the Mexico/US border. Inter-model agreement is greater for temperature than precipitation, though precipitation projections show some tendency toward slow convergence. Seasonal temperature changes are expected to be similar from month to month, slightly greater in summer and slightly smaller in winter. Coastal temperature increases are expected to be smaller than inland. High elevation increases may be slightly greater than those at low elevation. The precipitation season is in general expected to be more concentrated in winter, with less (or less increase, depending on latitude) precipitation in spring, summer, and autumn than without climate change. Climate should have started to depart from the baseline (no-change) case about 30-35 years ago. Observations show that temperatures West-wide did begin to rise during the 1970s. Precipitation changes have been more ambiguous. Annual temperature increases in the U.S. have been much more prominent in the West (and to some extent the north) than in the East, especially during the last decade. Summer in particular has shown a marked temperature increase since around 2000. Minimum temperatures have shown more increase (in many cases considerably more) than maximum temperatures. Annual freezing levels, from essentially independent data sets, have risen during this time. Acceptance of climate change in the public mind is increased when evidence visibly aligns with projections. This appears to have been particularly important in the western states. However, other sources of climate variability, of human or natural origin, on seasonal to decadal scales, can obscure or partially and temporarily mask expected
75 FR 27649 - 2010 Annual Determination for Sea Turtle Observer Requirements
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-05-18
... enable the design of an appropriate sampling program and to ensure collection of sufficient scientific... Observer Coverage in a Fishery Listed on the 2010 Annual Determination The design of any observer program.... During the program design, NMFS will be guided by the following standards for distributing and placing...
Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.
2017-01-01
Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.
Evaluation of ERA-Interim precipitation data in complex terrain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, Lu; Bernhardt, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten
2013-04-01
Precipitation controls a large variety of environmental processes, which is an essential input parameter for land surface models e.g. in hydrology, ecology and climatology. However, rain gauge networks provides the necessary information, are commonly sparse in complex terrains, especially in high mountainous regions. Reanalysis products (e.g. ERA-40 and NCEP-NCAR) as surrogate data are increasing applied in the past years. Although they are improving forward, previous studies showed that these products should be objectively evaluated due to their various uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the precipitation data from ERA-Interim, which is a latest reanalysis product developed by ECMWF. ERA-Interim daily total precipitation are compared with high resolution gridded observation dataset (E-OBS) at 0.25°×0.25° grids for the period 1979-2010 over central Alps (45.5-48°N, 6.25-11.5°E). Wet or dry day is defined using different threshold values (0.5mm, 1mm, 5mm, 10mm and 20mm). The correspondence ratio (CR) is applied for frequency comparison, which is the ratio of days when precipitation occurs in both ERA-Interim and E-OBS dataset. The result shows that ERA-Interim captures precipitation occurrence very well with a range of CR from 0.80 to 0.97 for 0.5mm to 20mm thresholds. However, the bias of intensity increases with rising thresholds. Mean absolute error (MAE) varies between 4.5 mm day-1 and 9.5 mm day-1 in wet days for whole area. In term of mean annual cycle, ERA-Interim almost has the same standard deviation of the interannual variability of daily precipitation with E-OBS, 1.0 mm day-1. Significant wet biases happened in ERA-Interim throughout warm season (May to August) and dry biases in cold season (November to February). The spatial distribution of mean annual daily precipitation shows that ERA-Interim significant underestimates precipitation intensity in high mountains and northern flank of Alpine chain from November to March while pronounced
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pangaluru, K.; Velicogna, I.; Ciraci, E.; Mohajerani, Y.
2017-12-01
The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) basins supply water for both domestic and agricultural demands, the latter of which is the mainstay of Indian economy. Here, we use high-resolution Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) rainfall datasets to study the spatial and temporal behavior of rainfall over the mountainous areas of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra (IGB) over the period from 2001 to 2014. The validation of High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) precipitation data is carried out with observational (GPCP, CRU and CPC) and satellite (TRMM_3B43) datasets for the period. We find that the relative differences between the HAR model and the satellite and gauge-based datasets varies between -9% and 67% for the seasonal mean and between 1% and 26% for the annual mean for all basins. The correlation between the HAR model and the observational datasets lies between 0.5 and 0.9 for all seasons. Spatial variations and monthly magnitudes of gridded precipitation trends are calculated by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Thei-Sen approach (TSA) respectively. We found significant positive trends precipitation grids over the IGB basins in the annual and monsoon season time frames, as opposed to winter and falls seasons.
Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard
2016-02-25
Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather-salmonellosis associations. We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5 °C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather-salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
ANPP-precipitation relationships in multi-year drought experiments in natural ecosystems
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Background/Question/Methods Predicting the effects of a reduction in precipitations on ecosystem productivity confronts an uncertainty: the relationship between aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation differs if the focus is spatial, driven by the climatic mean annual precipi...
Rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Tibetan Plateau
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Rain use efficiency (RUE), commonly described as the ratio of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to mean annual precipitation (MAP), is a critical indicator for predicting potential responses of grassland ecosystems to changing precipitation regimes. However, current understanding on patterns...
Sun, Jian; Qin, Xiaojing; Yang, Jun
2016-01-01
The spatiotemporal variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of three vegetation types (alpine steppe, alpine meadow, and alpine desert steppe) across the Tibetan Plateau was analyzed from 1982 to 2013. In addition, the annual mean temperature (MAT) and annual mean precipitation (MAP) trends were quantified to define the spatiotemporal climate patterns. Meanwhile, the relationships between climate factors and NDVI were analyzed in order to understand the impact of climate change on vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that the maximum of NDVI increased by 0.3 and 0.2 % per 10 years in the entire regions of alpine steppe and alpine meadow, respectively. However, no significant change in the NDVI of the alpine desert steppe has been observed since 1982. A negative relationship between NDVI and MAT was found in all these alpine grassland types, while MAP positively impacted the vegetation dynamics of all grasslands. Also, the effects of temperature and precipitation on different vegetation types differed, and the correlation coefficient for MAP and NDVI in alpine meadow is larger than that for other vegetation types. We also explored the percentages of precipitation and temperature influence on NDVI variation, using redundancy analysis at the observation point scale. The results show that precipitation is a primary limiting factor for alpine vegetation dynamic, rather than temperature. Most importantly, the results can serve as a tool for grassland ecosystem management.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey
2017-01-01
The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Tzouka, Katerina; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2017-04-01
The long-term persistence (LTP), else known in hydrological science as the Hurst phenomenon, is a behaviour observed in geophysical processes in which wet years or dry years are clustered to respective long time periods. A common practice for evaluating the presence of the LTP is to model the geophysical time series with the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp) and estimate its Hurst parameter H where high values of H indicate strong LTP. We estimate H of the mean annual precipitation using instrumental data from approximately 1 500 stations which cover a big area of the earth's surface and span from 1916 to 2015. We regress the H estimates of all stations on their spatial and regional characteristics (i.e. their location, elevation and Köppen-Geiger climate class) using a random forest algorithm. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LTP assumption (MKt-LTP) to all time series to assess the significance of observed trends of the mean annual precipitation. To summarize the results, the LTP seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the fitted regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LTP properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. Additionally, the application of the MKt-LTP suggests that no significant monotonic trend can characterize the global precipitation. Dominant positive significant trends are observed mostly in main climate type D (snow), while in the other climate types the percentage of stations with positive significant trends was approximately equal to that of negative significant trends. Furthermore, 50% of all stations do not exhibit significant trends at all.
Sensitivity of River Runoff in Bhutan to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sonessa, M. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Dorji, C.; Wangmo, D.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Richey, J. E.
2013-12-01
In the past decades there has been increasing concern about the potential effects of climate change on runoff and water resources all over the world under different conditions. Various studies have indicated that climate change will have an impact on runoff and stream flow. Bhutan is one of the countries in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region which shows more warming than the global average. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a macroscale hydrological model, was used to assess the hydrology of the country and the potential impacts of climate change on water availability. Precipitation and temperature were perturbed to study the runoff sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes. The VIC model was run at 1/24° latitude-longitude resolution. The modeled mean annual runoff elasticity which measures fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation ranges from 1.08 to 2.16. The elasticity value is lower for higher reference precipitations and vice versa. The runoff sensitivity to temperature represents the percentage change in annual runoff per 1°C change in temperature. Runoff sensitivities are negative and range from -1.36%/°C to -1.70%/°C. Spatially, both greater elasticity and sensitivity occur towards the northern part of the country where elevation is more than 5000 m above sea level. Based on the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five (CMIP5) average model results, both precipitation and temperature are predicted to increase in Bhutan in the 21st century. Annually, P is expected to increase by 0.45 to 8.7% under RCP4.5 emission scenario and 1.95 to 14.26% under RCP8.5 emission. The mean annual temperature increment ranges from +1.1 to +2.6°C under RCP4.5 and +1.2 to +4.5°C under RCP8.5 emission scenario. These changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to result in runoff changes ranging from -1.0 to +14.3% and +2.2 to +23.1% increments under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chandra, Chandrasekar V.; Chen*, Haonan; Petersen, Walter
2017-04-01
The active Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and passive radiometer onboard Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission's Core Observatory extend the observation range attained by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) from tropical to most of the globe [1]. Through improved measurements of precipitation, the GPM mission is helping to advance our understanding of Earth's water and energy cycle, as well as climate changes. Ground Validation (GV) is an indispensable part of the GPM satellite mission. In the pre-launch era, several international validation experiments had already generated a substantial dataset that could be used to develop and test the pre-launch GPM algorithms. After launch, more ground validation field campaigns were conducted to further evaluate GPM precipitation data products as well as the sensitivities of retrieval algorithms. Among various validation equipment, ground based dual-polarization radar has shown great advantages to conduct precipitation estimation over a wide area in a relatively short time span. Therefore, radar is always a key component in all the validation field experiments. In addition, the radar polarization diversity has great potential to characterize precipitation microphysics through the identification of raindrop size distribution and different hydrometeor types [2]. Currently, all the radar sites comprising the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88DP) network are operating in dual-polarization mode. However, most of the operational radar based precipitation products are produced at coarse resolution typically on 1 km by 1 km spatial grids, focusing on precipitation accumulations at temporal scales of 1-h, 3-h, 6-h, 12-h, and/or 24-h (daily). Their capability for instantaneous GPM product validation is severely limited due to the spatial and temporal mismatching between observations from the ground and space. This paper first presents the rationale and
Atmospheric controls on the precipitation isotopes over the Andaman Islands, Bay of Bengal
Chakraborty, S.; Sinha, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Sengupta, S.; Mohan, P. M.; Datye, A.
2016-01-01
Isotopic analysis of precipitation over the Andaman Island, Bay of Bengal was carried out for the year 2012 and 2013 in order to study the atmospheric controls on rainwater isotopic variations. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions are typical of the tropical marine sites but show significant variations depending on the ocean-atmosphere conditions; maximum depletion was observed during the tropical cyclones. The isotopic composition of rainwater seems to be controlled by the dynamical nature of the moisture rather than the individual rain events. Precipitation isotopes undergo systematic depletions in response to the organized convection occurring over a large area and are modulated by the integrated effect of convective activities. Precipitation isotopes appear to be linked with the monsoon intraseasonal variability in addition to synoptic scale fluctuations. During the early to mid monsoon the amount effect arose primarily due to rain re-evaporation but in the later phase it was driven by moisture convergence rather than evaporation. Amount effect had distinct characteristics in these two years, which appeared to be modulated by the intraseasonal variability of monsoon. It is shown that the variable nature of amount effect limits our ability to reconstruct the past-monsoon rainfall variability on annual to sub-annual time scale. PMID:26806683
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gong, Gavin; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido D.
1994-01-01
Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.
Chase, K.J.
2011-01-01
This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.
2015-12-01
The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a
Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America
Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.
1998-01-01
Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Grecu, Mircea; Olson, William S.; Shie, Chung-Lin; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.; Tao, Wei-Kuo
2009-01-01
In this study, satellite passive microwave sensor observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) are utilized to make estimates of latent + eddy sensible heating rates (Q1-QR) in regions of precipitation. The TMI heating algorithm (TRAIN) is calibrated, or "trained" using relatively accurate estimates of heating based upon spaceborne Precipitation Radar (PR) observations collocated with the TMI observations over a one-month period. The heating estimation technique is based upon a previously described Bayesian methodology, but with improvements in supporting cloud-resolving model simulations, an adjustment of precipitation echo tops to compensate for model biases, and a separate scaling of convective and stratiform heating components that leads to an approximate balance between estimated vertically-integrated condensation and surface precipitation. Estimates of Q1-QR from TMI compare favorably with the PR training estimates and show only modest sensitivity to the cloud-resolving model simulations of heating used to construct the training data. Moreover, the net condensation in the corresponding annual mean satellite latent heating profile is within a few percent of the annual mean surface precipitation rate over the tropical and subtropical oceans where the algorithm is applied. Comparisons of Q1 produced by combining TMI Q1-QR with independently derived estimates of QR show reasonable agreement with rawinsonde-based analyses of Q1 from two field campaigns, although the satellite estimates exhibit heating profile structure with sharper and more intense heating peaks than the rawinsonde estimates. 2
Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.
Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L
2018-06-01
California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model
McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.
2011-01-01
A monthly water balance model (WB model) is used with CRUTS2.1 monthly temperature and precipitation data to generate time series of monthly runoff for all land areas of the globe for the period 1905 through 2002. Even though annual precipitation accounts for most of the temporal and spatial variability in annual runoff, increases in temperature have had an increasingly negative effect on annual runoff after 1980. Although the effects of increasing temperature on runoff became more apparent after 1980, the relative magnitude of these effects are small compared to the effects of precipitation on global runoff. ?? 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.
Fry, Ellen L.; Manning, Pete; Allen, David G. P.; Hurst, Alex; Everwand, Georg; Rimmler, Martin; Power, Sally A.
2013-01-01
Temperate grassland ecosystems face a future of precipitation change, which can alter community composition and ecosystem functions through reduced soil moisture and waterlogging. There is evidence that functionally diverse plant communities contain a wider range of water use and resource capture strategies, resulting in greater resistance of ecosystem function to precipitation change. To investigate this interaction between composition and precipitation change we performed a field experiment for three years in successional grassland in southern England. This consisted of two treatments. The first, precipitation change, simulated end of century predictions, and consisted of a summer drought phase alongside winter rainfall addition. The second, functional group identity, divided the plant community into three groups based on their functional traits- broadly described as perennials, caespitose grasses and annuals- and removed these groups in a factorial design. Ecosystem functions related to C, N and water cycling were measured regularly. Effects of functional groupidentity were apparent, with the dominant trend being that process rates were higher under control conditions where a range of perennial species were present. E.g. litter decomposition rates were significantly higher in plots containing several perennial species, the group with the highest average leaf N content. Process rates were also very strongly affected by the precipitation change treatmentwhen perennial plant species were dominant, but not where the community contained a high abundance of annual species and caespitose grasses. This contrasting response could be attributable to differing rooting patterns (shallower structures under annual plants, and deeper roots under perennials) and faster nutrient uptake in annuals compared to perennials. Our results indicate that precipitation change will have a smaller effect on key process rates in grasslandscontaining a range of perennial and annual species
A Century Trend of Precipitation in Forest Watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, G.; Ouyang, Y.; Leininger, T.; Han, Y.
2017-12-01
Estimates of hydrological processes in forest watersheds are essential to water supply planning, water quality protection, water resources management, and ecological restoration; whereas the century precipitation variation due to climate change could exacerbate forest watershed hydrological processes and add uncertainties to the processes. In this study, the multivariate statisitcal analysis technique was employed to identify a century temporal trend of precipitation in forest watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB). Seveal surface water monitoring stations in the LMRB, located in forest watersheds with very little land use disturbance and a century record, were selected to obtain precipitation data. Using frequency distribution analysis with HYDSTRA model, we found that the mean annual precipitation in a decadal scale increased as time elapsed over a 100-year period. Our study further revealed that the precipitation intensity for one-hour duration increased sigificantly in every 10 years for a 100-year period. During this period, the annual mean dry day frequency decreased in a decadal scale, whereas the annual mean wet day frequency increased for the same scale. Results indicated the precipitation pattern has been altered in the LMRB and the selected forest watersheds in this basin seems to become wetter during the past 100 years as a result of climate change.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Garg, Piyush; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Lang, Timothy J.; Chronis, Themis
2016-01-01
The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Xie, Ping-Ping; Janowiak, John; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David
2003-01-01
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.
Annual variations of monsoon and drought detected by GPS: A case study in Yunnan, China.
Jiang, Weiping; Yuan, Peng; Chen, Hua; Cai, Jianqing; Li, Zhao; Chao, Nengfang; Sneeuw, Nico
2017-07-19
The Global Positioning System (GPS) records monsoonal precipitable water vapor (PWV) and vertical crustal displacement (VCD) due to hydrological loading, and can thus be applied jointly to diagnose meteorological and hydrological droughts. We have analyzed the PWV and VCD observations during 2007.0-2015.0 at 26 continuous GPS stations located in Yunnan province, China. We also obtained equivalent water height (EWH) derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and precipitation at these stations with the same period. Then, we quantified the annual variations of PWV, precipitation, EWH and VCD and provided empirical relationships between them. We found that GPS-derived PWV and VCD (positive means downward movement) are in phase with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH, respectively. The annual signals of VCD and PWV show linearly correlated amplitudes and a two-month phase lag. Furthermore, the results indicate that PWV and VCD anomalies can also be used to explore drought, such as the heavy drought during winter/spring 2010. Our analysis results verify the capability of GPS to monitor monsoon variations and drought in Yunnan and show that a more comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of regional monsoon and drought can be achieved by integrating GPS-derived PWV and VCD with precipitation and GRACE-derived EWH.
[Characteristics of precipitation pH and conductivity at Mt. Huang].
Shi, Chun-e; Deng, Xue-liang; Wu, Bi-wen; Hong, Jie; Zhang, Su; Yang, Yuan-jian
2013-05-01
To understand the general characteristics of pH distribution and pollution in precipitation at Mt. Huang, statistical analyses were conducted for the routine measurements of pH and conductivity (K) at Mt. Huang during 2006-2011. The results showed that: (1) Over the period of study, the annual volume weighted mean (VWM) precipitation pH varied from 4.81 to 5.57, with precipitation acidity strengthening before 2009 and weakening thereafter. The precipitation acidity showed evident seasonal variations, with the VWM pH lowest in winter (4.78), and highest in summer (5.33). The occurrence frequency of acid rain was 46% , accounting for 45% of total rainfalls and with the most frequent pH falling into weak acid to neutral rain. (2) The annual VWM K varied from 16.91 to 27.84 microS x cm(-1), with no evident trend. As for ions pollution, the precipitation was relatively clean at Mt. Huang, with the most frequent K range being below 15 microS x cm(-1), followed by 15-25 microS x cm(-1). From February 2010 to December 2011, precipitation samples were collected on daily basis for ions analysis, as well as pH and K measurement in lab. Detailed comparisons were conducted between the two sets of pH and K, one set from field measurement and the other from lab measurement. The results indicated: (1) The lab measured pH (K) was highly correlated with the field pH (K); however, the lab pH tended to move towards neutral comparing with the corresponding field pH, and the shift range was closely correlated with the field pH and rainfall. The shift range of K from field to lab was highly correlated with the total ion concentration of precipitation. The field K showed evident negative correlation with the field pH with a correlation coefficient of -0.51. (2) When sampling with nylon-polyethylene bags, the statistics showed smaller bias between two sets of pH, with higher correlation coefficient between two sets of K. Furthermore, the lab K also showed evident negative correlation with
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campo, Julio
2016-09-01
The effect of precipitation regime on N and P cycles in tropical forests is poorly understood, despite global climate models project total precipitation reductions during the 21st Century. I investigated the influence of variation in annual precipitation (1240-642 mm yr-1) on N and P intra-system cycling along a precipitation regime gradient at Yucatan including 12 mature, tropical dry forests (TDFs) growing under otherwise similar conditions (similar annual temperature, rainfall seasonality and geological substrate). I analyzed N and P storage and turnover in the forest floor and mineral soil and explored the dependence of these processes and pools on precipitation level. The study findings indicate that with decreasing precipitation the litterfall decreases slightly (10%), while nutrient use efficiency increases by 20% for N, and by 40% for P. Decomposition rate and nutrient release was smallest in the dry extremity of precipitation regime. The difference between N and P turnover times in the forest floor and in organic matter indicates that different nutrients control the ecosystem function across the precipitation gradient. The data from this study reveals a pattern of limitation shifting from P towards N with decreasing annual precipitation. I suggest that the long-term consequences of the expected decrease in precipitation in many tropical dry regions would changes N and P supply could have long-term negative effects on primary productivity and future carbon storage in TDFs.
Evaluation and intercomparison of GPM-IMERG and TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation products over Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kazamias, A. P.; Sapountzis, M.; Lagouvardos, K.
2017-09-01
Accurate precipitation data at high temporal and spatial resolutions are needed for numerous applications in hydrology, water resources management and flood risk management. Satellite-based precipitation estimations/products offer a potential alternative source of rainfall data for regions with sparse rain gauge network. The recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is the successor of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) providing global precipitation estimates at spatial resolution of 0.1 degree x 0.1 degree and half-hourly temporal resolution. This study aims at evaluating the accuracy of the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) near-real-time daily product (GPM-3IMERGDL) against rain gauge observations from a network of stations distributed across Greece for the year 2016. Moreover, the GPM-IMERG product is also compared with its predecessor, the Version-7 near-real-time (3B42RT) daily product of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). Several statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the satellite-based precipitation estimates against rain gauge observations. In addition, categorical statistical indices are used to assess rain detection capabilities of the two satellite products. The GPM-IMERG daily product shows reasonable agreement (CC=0.60) against rain gauge observations, with the exception of coastal areas in which low correlations are achieved. The GPM-IMERG daily precipitation product tends to overestimate rainfall, especially in complex terrain areas with high annual precipitation. In particular, rainfall estimates in western Greece have a strong positive bias. On the other hand, the TRMM 3B42 product shows low correlation (CC=0.45) against rain gauge observations and slightly underestimates rainfall. This study is a first attempt to evaluate and compare the newly introduced GPM-IMERG and the TRMM 3B42 rainfall products at daily timescale over Greece.
Echo 2 - Observations at Fort Churchill of a 4-keV peak in low-level electron precipitation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arnoldy, R. L.; Hendrickson, R. A.; Winckler, J. R.
1975-01-01
The Echo 2 rocket flight launched from Fort Churchill, Manitoba, offered the opportunity to observe high-latitude low-level electron precipitation during quiet magnetic conditions. Although no visual aurora was evident at the time of the flight, an auroral spectrum sharply peaked at a few keV was observed to have intensities from 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than peaked spectra typically associated with bright auroral forms. There is a growing body of evidence that relates peaked electron spectra to discrete aurora. The Echo 2 observations show that whatever the mechanism for peaking the electron spectrum in and above discrete forms, it operates over a range of precipitation intensities covering nearly 3 orders of magnitude down to subvisual or near subvisual events.
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip; Chang, Alfred; Ferraro, Ralph; Gruber, Arnold; Janowiak, John; McNab, Alan; Rudolf, Bruno; Schneider, Udo
1997-01-01
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has released the GPCP Version 1 Combined Precipitation Data Set, a global, monthly precipitation dataset covering the period July 1987 through December 1995. The primary product in the dataset is a merged analysis incorporating precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit -satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The dataset also contains the individual input fields, a combination of the microwave and infrared satellite estimates, and error estimates for each field. The data are provided on 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg latitude-longitude global grids. Preliminary analyses show general agreement with prior studies of global precipitation and extends prior studies of El Nino-Southern Oscillation precipitation patterns. At the regional scale there are systematic differences with standard climatologies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
di Diodato, A.; de Leonibus, L.; Zauli, F.; Biron, D.; Melfi, D.
2009-04-01
Operational Estimation of Accumulated Precipitation using Satellite Observation, by Eumetsat Satellite Application facility in Support to Hydrology (H-SAF Consortium). Cap. Attilio DI DIODATO(*), T.Col. Luigi DE LEONIBUS(*), T.Col Francesco ZAULI(*), Cap. Daniele BIRON(*), Ten. Davide Melfi(*) Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) are specialised development and processing centres of the EUMETSAT Distributed Ground Segment. SAFs process level 1b data from meteorological satellites (geostationary and polar ones) in conjunction with all other relevant sources of data and appropriate models to generate services and level 2 products. Each SAF is a consortium of EUMETSAT European partners lead by a host institute responsible for the management of the complete SAF project. The Meteorological Service of Italian Air Force is the host Institute for the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF). HSAF has the commitment to develop and to provide, operationally after 2010, products regarding precipitation, soil moisture and snow. HSAF is going to provide information on error structure of its products and validation of the products via their impacts into Hydrological models. To that purpose it has been structured a specific subgroups. Accumulated precipitation is computed by temporal integration of the instantaneous rain rate achieved by the blended LEO/MW and GEO/IR precipitation rate products generated by Rapid Update method available every 15 minutes. The algorithm provides four outputs, consisting in accumulated precipitation in 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours, delivered every 3 hours at the synoptic hours. These outputs are our precipitation background fields. Satellite estimates can cover most of the globe, however, they suffer from errors due to lack of a direct relationship between observation parameters and precipitation, the poor sampling and algorithm imperfections. For this reason the 3 hours accumulated precipitation is
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.
2016-01-01
Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.
Changes of Climate Extremes in Urmia Lake Basin: Observations and Multimodel Ensemble Projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.
2017-12-01
This study presents an analysis of the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Urmia Lake Basin, in Iran in 21th century. The latest observations in the past three decades and multimodel ensemble projections from eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are employed for analysis in this study. The twenty-seven indicative temperature and precipitation indices recommended by the joint World Meteorological Organization CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used for assessing changes in extremes. Results indicate that most warm (cold) extreme temperature indices have shown significantly positive (negative) trends in the Urmia Lake Basin in past three decades, while only slight changes in precipitation extremes can be observed. Ensemble projection from Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that the increasing consecutive dry days (CDD), together with the decreasing frost day (FD) and increasing warm nights frequency (TN90) contribute to more frequent/severe droughts in Urmia Lake Basin. Meanwhile, the results show slight increase of annual count of days with precipitation of more than 10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and annual total precipitation with precipitation >95th percentile (R95) in projections. Our finding provides information on how extremes might change in the future from a wide range of scenarios that can potentially be sued for water resource and eco-environmental planning and adaptation strategies.
Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajah, Kailash; O'Leary, Tess; Turner, Alice; Petrakis, Gabriella; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth
2014-12-01
Changes to the temporal distribution of daily precipitation were investigated using a data set of 12,513 land-based stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network. The distribution of precipitation was measured using the Gini index (which describes how uniformly precipitation is distributed throughout a year) and the annual number of wet days. The Mann-Kendall test and a regression analysis were used to assess the direction and rate of change to both indices. Over the period of 1976-2000, East Asia, Central America, and Brazil exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and light precipitation days, and eastern Europe exhibited a decrease in the number of both wet and moderate precipitation days. In contrast, the U.S., southern South America, western Europe, and Australia exhibited an increase in the number of both wet and light precipitation days. Trends in both directions were field significant at the global scale.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
2017-12-01
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change
Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.
2017-12-28
Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less
Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.
2015-03-01
Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. We analyze catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high amount of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, we propose a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to one month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g. a stationary low-pressure system). Because we consider a high number of events and because we work with daily precipitation values, we do not separate the "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation. The whole precipitation recorded during the flood day is included in the short-range antecedent precipitation. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura
Examination of Satellite and Model Reanalysis Precipitation with Climate Oscillations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donato, T. F.; Houser, P. R.
2016-12-01
The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of satellite and model reanalysis precipitation with climate oscillations. Specifically, we examine and compare the relationship between the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) in regards to four climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, the Southern Annular Mode and Solar Activity. This analysis covers a 35-year observation period from 1980 through 2015. We ask two questions: How is global and regional precipitation changing over the observation period, and how are global and regional variations in precipitation related to global climate variation? We explore and compare global and regional precipitation trends between the two data sets. To do this, we constructed a total of 56 Regions of Interest (ROI). Nineteen of the ROIs were focused on geographic regions including continents, ocean basins, and marginal seas. Twelve ROIs examine hemispheric processes. The remaining 26 regions are derived from spatial-temporal classification analysis of GPCP data over a ten-year period (2001-2010). These regions include the primary wet and dry monsoon regions, regions influenced by western boundary currents, and orography. We investigate and interpret the monthly, seasonal and yearly global and regional response to the selected climate indices. Initial results indicate that no correlation exist between the GPCP data and Merra-2 data. Preliminary qualitative assessment between GCPC and solar activity suggest a possible relationship in intra-annual variability. This work is performed under the State of the Global Water and Energy Cycle (SWEC) project, a NASA-sponsored program in support of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS).
Duliu, Octavian G; Varlam, Carmen; Shnawaw, Muataz Dheyaa
2018-05-16
To get more information on the origin of tritium and to evidence any possible presence of anthropogenic sources, between January 1999 and December 2016, the precipitation level and tritium concentration were monthly recorded and investigated by the Cryogenic Institute of Ramnicu Valcea, Romania. Compared with similar data covering a radius of about 1200 km westward, the measurements gave similar results concerning the time evolution of tritium content and precipitation level for the entire time interval excepting the period between 2009 and 2011 when the tritium concentrations showed a slight increase, most probable due to the activity of neighboring experimental pilot plant for tritium and deuterium separation. Regardless this fact, all data pointed towards a steady tendency of tritium concentrations to decrease with an annual rate of about 1.4 ± 0.05%. The experimental data on precipitation levels and tritium concentrations form two complete time series whose time series analysis showed, at p < 0.01, the presence of a single one-year periodicity whose coincident maximums which correspond to late spring - early summer months suggest the existence of the Spring Leak mechanism with a possible contribution of the soil moisture remobilization during the warm period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baltaci, H.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Karaca, M.
2012-04-01
In this study, we investigated the relationship between synoptic weather types and rainfall patterns in the Marmara region, northwestern part of Turkey. For this purpose, the automated Lamb weather type classification method was applied to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily mean sea level pressure data for the period between 2001 and 2010. Ten synoptic weather types were found that represent the 90% of the synoptic patterns that affect the Marmara region. Based on the annual frequency analysis, mainly six synoptic weather types, 24% (NorthEast), 21% (North), 11% (South), 9% (SouthWest), 7% (Anticyclonic), 5% (Cyclonic), were found dominant in the region. Multiple comparison tests suggest that (i.e., Bonferroni test) northerly patterns (i.e., North and NorthEast) have statistically significantly higher percentages as compared to the southerly (i.e., South and SouthWest) and the rest of the patterns (i.e., Anticylonic and Cylonic). During winter months, N- and NE-patterns observed less frequently than the annual frequencies of them, 18% and 13% of the period, respectively. On the other hand, due to the formation of the low pressure center located over the central Mediterranean Sea, S- and SW-patterns were observed more frequently than their annual mean frequencies, 16% and 17%, respectively. During summer months, N- and NE-patterns become dominant in the region, and they constitute about three quarters of the period, 25% and 44%, respectively. The low pressure center located over central Anatolia and Black Sea brings moist and cool air to the region, preventing excessive heating during the summer season. Cyclonic patterns observed less frequent during the winter and fall months, about 3%. They become more frequent during the summer season, 9% as a result of the shifting of the subtropical jet stream to the south, and the seasonal movement of the Basra low pressure toward the inner and northern parts of the Anatolian peninsula. On the other hand, Anticyclonic patterns are
Zhang, Fa-wei; Li, Hong-qin; Li, Ying-nian; Li, Yi-kang; Lin, Li
2009-03-01
With Mexican Hat function as mother function, a wavelet analysis was conducted on the periodic fluctuation features of air temperature, precipitation, and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in the Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences from 1980 to 2007. The results showed that there was a main period of 13 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature, precipitation, and ANPP. A secondary period of 2 years for the annual fluctuations of air temperature and ANPP had lesser influence, whereas that of 4 years for the annual fluctuation of precipitation had greater effect. Lagged correlation analysis indicated that the annual fluctuation of ANNP was mainly controlled by the air temperature in a 20 years scale and had a weak 5-9 years lag effect, but there was a less correlation between ANPP and precipitation.
Precipitation-driven carbon balance controls survivorship of desert biocrust mosses.
Coe, Kirsten K; Belnap, Jayne; Sparks, Jed P
2012-07-01
Precipitation patterns including the magnitude, timing, and seasonality of rainfall are predicted to undergo substantial alterations in arid regions in the future, and desert organisms may be more responsive to such changes than to shifts in only mean annual rainfall. Soil biocrust communities (consisting of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mosses) are ubiquitous to desert ecosystems, play an array of ecological roles, and display a strong sensitivity to environmental changes. Crust mosses are particularly responsive to changes in precipitation and exhibit rapid declines in biomass and mortality following the addition of small rainfall events. Further, loss of the moss component in biocrusts leads to declines in crust structure and function. In this study, we sought to understand the physiological responses of the widespread and often dominant biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to alterations in rainfall. Moss samples were collected during all four seasons and exposed to two rainfall event sizes and three desiccation period (DP) lengths. A carbon balance approach based on single precipitation events was used to define the carbon gain or loss during a particular hydration period. Rainfall event size was the strongest predictor of carbon balance, and the largest carbon gains were associated with the largest precipitation events. In contrast, small precipitation events resulted in carbon deficits for S. caninervis. Increasing the length of the DP prior to an event resulted in reductions in carbon balance, probably because of the increased energetic cost of hydration following more intense bouts of desiccation. The season of collection (i.e., physiological status of the moss) modulated these responses, and the effects of DP and rainfall on carbon balance were different in magnitude (and often in sign) for different seasons. In particular, S. caninervis displayed higher carbon balances in the winter than in the summer, even for events of identical size. Overall, our results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cole, K. L.; Eischeid, J. K.; Garfin, G. M.; Ironside, K.; Cobb, N. S.
2008-12-01
Floristic provinces of the western United States (west of 100W) can be segregated into three regions defined by significant seasonal precipitation during the months of: 1) November-March (Mediterranean); 2) July- September (Monsoonal); or, 3) May-June (Rocky Mountain). This third region is best defined by the absence of the late spring-early summer drought that affects regions 1 and 2. Each of these precipitation regimes is characterized by distinct vegetation types and fire seasonality adapted to that particular cycle of seasonal moisture availability and deficit. Further, areas where these regions blend from one to another can support even more complex seasonal patterns and resulting distinctive vegetation types. As a result, modeling the effects of climates on these ecosystems requires confidence that GCMs can at least approximate these sub- continental seasonal precipitation patterns. We evaluated the late Twentieth Century (1950-1999 AD) estimates of annual precipitation seasonality produced by 22 GCMs contained within the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4). These modeled estimates were compared to values from the PRISM dataset, extrapolated from station data, over the same historical period for the 3 seasonal periods defined above. The correlations between GCM estimates and PRISM values were ranked using 4 measures: 1) A map pattern relationship based on the correlation coefficient, 2) A map pattern relationship based on the congruence coefficient, 3) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation amounts, and, 4) The ratio of simulated/observed area averaged precipitation based on the seasonal precipitation percentages of the annual total. For each of the four metrics, the rank order of models was very similar. The ranked order of the performance of the different models quantified aspects of the model performance visible in the mapped results. While some models represented the seasonal patterns very well, others
Areal-reduction factors for the precipitation of the 1-day design storm in Texas
Asquith, William H.
1999-01-01
The reduction of the precipitation depth from a design storm for a point to an effective (mean) depth over a watershed often is important for cost-effective design of hydraulic structures by reducing the volume of precipitation. A design storm for a point is the depth of precipitation that has a specified duration and frequency (recurrence interval). The effective depth can be calculated by multiplying the design-storm depth by an areal-reduction factor (ARF). ARF ranges from 0 to 1, varies with the recurrence interval of the design storm, and is a function of watershed characteristics such as watershed size and shape, geographic location, and time of year that the design storm occurs. This report documents an investigation of ARF by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, for the 1-day design storm for Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas. The ?annual maxima-centered? approach used in this report specifically considers the distribution of concurrent precipitation surrounding an annual precipitation maxima. Unlike previously established approaches, the annual maxima-centered approach does not require the spatial averaging of precipitation nor explicit definition of a representative area of a particular storm in the analysis. Graphs of the relation between ARF and circular watershed area (to about 7,000 square miles) are provided, and a technique to calculate ARF for noncircular watersheds is discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abrishamchi, A.; Mirshahi, A.
2015-12-01
The global coverage, quick access, and appropriate spatial-temporal resolution of satellite precipitation data renders the data appropriate for hydrologic studies, especially in regions with no sufficient rain-gauge network. On the other hand, satellite precipitation products may have major errors. The present study aims at reduction of estimation error of the PERSIANN satellite precipitation product. Bayesian logic employed to develop a statistical relationship between historical ground-based and satellite precipitation data. This relationship can then be used to reduce satellite precipitation product error in near real time, when there is no ground-based precipitation observation. The method was evaluated in the Lake Urmia basin with a monthly time scale; November to May of 2000- 2008 for the purpose of model development and two years of 2009 and 2010 for the validation of the established relationships. Moreover, Kriging interpolation method was employed to estimate the average rainfall in the basin. Furthermore, to downscale the satellite precipitation product from 0.25o to 0.05o, data-location downscaling algorithm was used. In 76 percent of months, the final product, compared with the satellite precipitation, had less error during the validation period. Additionally, its performance was marginally better than adjusted PERSIANN product.
Region-Specific Sensitivity of Anemophilous Pollen Deposition to Temperature and Precipitation
Donders, Timme H.; Hagemans, Kimberley; Dekker, Stefan C.; de Weger, Letty A.; de Klerk, Pim; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike
2014-01-01
Understanding relations between climate and pollen production is important for several societal and ecological challenges, importantly pollen forecasting for pollinosis treatment, forensic studies, global change biology, and high-resolution palaeoecological studies of past vegetation and climate fluctuations. For these purposes, we investigate the role of climate variables on annual-scale variations in pollen influx, test the regional consistency of observed patterns, and evaluate the potential to reconstruct high-frequency signals from sediment archives. A 43-year pollen-trap record from the Netherlands is used to investigate relations between annual pollen influx, climate variables (monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation values), and the North Atlantic Oscillation climate index. Spearman rank correlation analysis shows that specifically in Alnus, Betula, Corylus, Fraxinus, Quercus and Plantago both temperature in the year prior to (T-1), as well as in the growing season (T), are highly significant factors (TApril rs between 0.30 [P<0.05[ and 0.58 [P<0.0001]; TJuli-1 rs between 0.32 [P<0.05[ and 0.56 [P<0.0001]) in the annual pollen influx of wind-pollinated plants. Total annual pollen prediction models based on multiple climate variables yield R2 between 0.38 and 0.62 (P<0.0001). The effect of precipitation is minimal. A second trapping station in the SE Netherlands, shows consistent trends and annual variability, suggesting the climate factors are regionally relevant. Summer temperature is thought to influence the formation of reproductive structures, while temperature during the flowering season influences pollen release. This study provides a first predictive model for seasonal pollen forecasting, and also aides forensic studies. Furthermore, variations in pollen accumulation rates from a sub-fossil peat deposit are comparable with the pollen trap data. This suggests that high frequency variability pollen records from natural archives reflect
Legacies of precipitation fluctuations on primary production: theory and data synthesis.
Sala, Osvaldo E; Gherardi, Laureano A; Reichmann, Lara; Jobbágy, Esteban; Peters, Debra
2012-11-19
Variability of above-ground net primary production (ANPP) of arid to sub-humid ecosystems displays a closer association with precipitation when considered across space (based on multiyear averages for different locations) than through time (based on year-to-year change at single locations). Here, we propose a theory of controls of ANPP based on four hypotheses about legacies of wet and dry years that explains space versus time differences in ANPP-precipitation relationships. We tested the hypotheses using 16 long-term series of ANPP. We found that legacies revealed by the association of current- versus previous-year conditions through the temporal series occur across all ecosystem types from deserts to mesic grasslands. Therefore, previous-year precipitation and ANPP control a significant fraction of current-year production. We developed unified models for the controls of ANPP through space and time. The relative importance of current-versus previous-year precipitation changes along a gradient of mean annual precipitation with the importance of current-year PPT decreasing, whereas the importance of previous-year PPT remains constant as mean annual precipitation increases. Finally, our results suggest that ANPP will respond to climate-change-driven alterations in water availability and, more importantly, that the magnitude of the response will increase with time.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cannon, Forest; Ralph, F. Martin; Wilson, Anna M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
2017-12-01
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 90% of the total meridional water vapor flux in midlatitudes, and 25-50% of the annual precipitation in the coastal western United States. In this study, reflectivity profiles from the Global Precipitation Measurement Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR) are used to evaluate precipitation and temperature characteristics of ARs over the western coast of North America and the eastern North Pacific Ocean. Evaluation of GPM-DPR bright-band height using a network of ground-based vertically pointing radars along the West Coast demonstrated exceptional agreement, and comparison with freezing level height from reanalyses over the eastern North Pacific Ocean also consistently agreed, indicating that GPM-DPR can be used to independently validate freezing level in models. However, precipitation comparison with gridded observations across the western United States indicated deficiencies in GPM-DPR's ability to reproduce the spatial distribution of winter precipitation, likely related to sampling frequency. Over the geographically homogeneous oceanic portion of the domain, sampling frequency was not problematic, and significant differences in the frequency and intensity of precipitation between GPM-DPR and reanalyses highlighted biases in both satellite-observed and modeled AR precipitation. Reanalyses precipitation rates below the minimum sensitivity of GPM-DPR accounted for a 20% increase in total precipitation, and 25% of radar-derived precipitation rates were greater than the 99th percentile precipitation rate in reanalyses. Due to differences in the proportions of precipitation in convective, stratiform bright-band, and non-bright-band conditions, AR conditions contributed nearly 10% more to total precipitation in GPM-DPR than reanalyses.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pegram, Geoff; Bardossy, Andras; Sinclair, Scott
2017-04-01
The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this presentation we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the presentation is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to un-sampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the sub-daily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. In addition, a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure, as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these 12 day maxima is first interpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest 12 radar based days in each year. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the new method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Burgos-Cara, Alejandro; Ruiz-Agudo, Encarnacion; Putnis, Christine V.
2016-04-01
Calcium oxalate (CaC2O4ṡxH2O) minerals are naturally occurring minerals found in fossils, plants, kidney stones and is a by-product in some processes such as paper, food and beverage production [1,2]. In particular, calcium oxalate monohydrate phase (COM) also known as whewellite (CaC2O4ṡH2O), is the most frequently reported mineral phase found in urinary and kidney stones together with phosphates. Organic additives are well known to play a key role in the formation of minerals in both biotic and abiotic systems, either facilitating their precipitation or hindering it. In this regard, recent studies have provided direct evidence demonstrating that citrate species could enhance dissolution of COM and inhibit their precipitation. [3,4] The present work aims at evauate the influence of pH, citrate and oxalic acid concentrations in calcium oxalate precipitation on calcite surfaces (Island Spar, Chihuahua, Mexico) through in-situ nanoscale observation using in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM, Multimode, Bruker) in flow-through experiments. Changes in calcium oxalate morphologies and precipitated phases were observed, as well as the inhibitory effect of citrate on calcium oxalate precipitation, which also lead to stabilization an the amorphous calcium oxalate phase. [1] K.D. Demadis, M. Öner, Inhibitory effects of "green"additives on the crystal growth of sparingly soluble salts, in: J.T. Pearlman (Ed.), Green Chemistry Research Trends, Nova Science Publishers Inc., New York, 2009, pp. 265-287. [2] M. Masár, M. Zuborová, D. Kaniansky, B. Stanislawski, Determination of oxalate in beer by zone electrophoresis on a chip with conductivity detection, J. Sep. Sci. 26 (2003) 647-652. [3] Chutipongtanate S, Chaiyarit S, Thongboonkerd V. Citrate, not phosphate, can dissolve calcium oxalate monohydrate crystals and detach these crystals from renal tubular cells. Eur J Pharmacol 2012;689:219-25. [4] Weaver ML, Qiu SR, Hoyer JR, Casey WH, Nancollas GH, De Yoreo JJ
Performance of the general circulation models in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abbasian, Mohammadsadegh; Moghim, Sanaz; Abrishamchi, Ahmad
2018-03-01
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are advanced tools for impact assessment and climate change studies. Previous studies show that the performance of the GCMs in simulating climate variables varies significantly over different regions. This study intends to evaluate the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation over Iran. Simulations from 37 GCMs and observations from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were obtained for the period of 1901-2005. Six measures of performance including mean bias, root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), linear correlation coefficient (r), Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS), Sen's slope estimator, and the Taylor diagram are used for the evaluation. GCMs are ranked based on each statistic at seasonal and annual time scales. Results show that most GCMs perform reasonably well in simulating the annual and seasonal temperature over Iran. The majority of the GCMs have a poor skill to simulate precipitation, particularly at seasonal scale. Based on the results, the best GCMs to represent temperature and precipitation simulations over Iran are the CMCC-CMS (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change) and the MRI-CGCM3 (Meteorological Research Institute), respectively. The results are valuable for climate and hydrometeorological studies and can help water resources planners and managers to choose the proper GCM based on their criteria.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi
2018-04-01
In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide
Stogner, Sr., Robert W.
2000-01-01
convection storms that hit some areas of the watershed and not others, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions on relations between streamflow and precipitation. Trends in annual instantaneous peak streamflow, 70th percentile, 90th percentile, maximum daily-mean streamflow (100th percentile), 7-, 14-, and 30-day high daily-mean stream- flow duration, minimum daily-mean streamflow (0th percentile), 10th percentile, 30th percentile, and 7-, 14-, 30-day low daily-mean streamflow duration were evaluated. In general, instantaneous peak streamflow has not changed significantly at most of the stations evaluated. Trend analysis revealed the lack of a significant upward trend in streamflow at all stations for the pre-1977 time period. Trend tests indicated a significant upward trend in high and low daily-mean streamflow statistics for the post-1976 period. Upward trends in high daily-mean streamflow statistics may be an indication that changes in land use within the watershed have increased the rate and magnitude of runoff. Upward trends in low daily-mean 2 Trends in Precipitation and Streamflow and Changes in Stream Morphology in the Fountain Creek Watershed, Colorado, 1939-99 streamflow statistics may be related to changes in water use and management. An analysis of the relation between streamflow and precipitation indicated that changes in water management have had a marked effect on streamflow. Observable change in channel morphology and changes in distribution and density of vegetation varied with magnitude, duration, and frequency of large streamflow events, and increases in the magnitude and duration of low streamflows. Although more subtle, low stream- flows were an important component of day-to-day channel erosion. Substantial changes in channel morphology were most often associated with infrequent large or catastrophic streamflow events that erode streambed and banks, alter stream course, and deposit large amounts of sediment in the flood plain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
2016-12-01
Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sai Gowtam, V.; Tulasi Ram, S.
2017-10-01
Ionospheric winter and annual anomalies have been investigated during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 using high-resolution global 3D - data of the FORMOSAT - 3/COSMIC (Formosa satellite - 3/Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere and Climate) radio occultation observations. Our detailed analysis shows that the occurrence of winter anomaly at low-latitudes is confined only to the early morning to afternoon hours, whereas, the winter anomaly at mid-latitudes is almost absent at all local times during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24. Further, in the topside ionosphere (altitudes of 400 km and above), the winter anomaly is completely absent at all local times. In contrast, the ionospheric annual anomaly is consistently observed at all local times and altitudes during this ascending phase of solar cycle 24. The annual anomaly exhibits strong enhancements over southern EIA crest latitudes during day time and around Weddle Sea Anomaly (WSA) region during night times. The global mean annual asymmetry index is also computed to understand the altitudinal variation. The global mean AI maximizes around 300-500 km altitudes during the low solar active periods (2008-10), whereas it extends up to 600 km during moderate to high (2011) solar activity period. These findings from our study provide new insights to the current understanding of the annual anomaly.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hu, Z.
2017-12-01
Climate change is predicted to cause dramatic variability in precipitation regime, not only in terms of change in annual precipitation amount, but also in precipitation seasonal distribution and precipitation event characteristics (high frenquency extrem precipitation, larger but fewer precipitation events), which combined to influence productivity of grassland in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, combining remote sensing products with in-situ measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) data from eddy covariance system in grassland of northern China, we quantified the effects of spatio-temporal vairation in precipitation on productivity from local sites to region scale. We found that, for an individual precipitation event, the duration of GPP-response to the individual precipitation event and the maximum absolute GPP response induced by the individual precipitation event increased linearly with the size of precipitation events. Comparison of the productivity-precipitation relationships between multi-sites determined that the predominant characteristics of precipitation events (PEC) that affected GPP differed remarkably between the water-limited temperate steppe and the temperature-limited alpine meadow. The number of heavy precipitation events (>10 mm d-1) was the most important PEC to impact GPP in the temperate steppe through affecting soil moisture at different soil profiles, while precipitation interval was the factor that affected GPP most in the alpine meadow via its effects on temperature. At the region scale, shape of ANPP-precipitation relationship varies with distinct spatial scales, and besides annual precipitation, precipitation seasonal distribution also has comparable impacts on spatial variation in ANPP. Temporal variability in ANPP was lower at both the dry and wet end, and peaked at a precipitation of 243.1±3.5mm, which is the transition region between typical steppe and desert steppe
Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Froidevaux, P.; Schwanbeck, J.; Weingartner, R.; Chevalier, C.; Martius, O.
2015-09-01
Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered - more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed - allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at
The impacts of changing transport and precipitation on pollutant distributions in a future climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, Yuanyuan; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Held, Isaac; Chen, Gang; Vecchi, Gabriel; Levy, Hiram
2011-09-01
Air pollution (ozone and particulate matter in surface air) is strongly linked to synoptic weather and thus is likely sensitive to climate change. In order to isolate the responses of air pollutant transport and wet removal to a warming climate, we examine a simple carbon monoxide-like (CO) tracer (COt) and a soluble version (SAt), both with the 2001 CO emissions, in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (AM3) for present (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. In 2081-2100, projected reductions in lower-tropospheric ventilation and wet deposition exacerbate surface air pollution as evidenced by higher surface COt and SAt concentrations. However, the average horizontal general circulation patterns in 2081-2100 are similar to 1981-2000, so the spatial distribution of COt changes little. Precipitation is an important factor controlling soluble pollutant wet removal, but the total global precipitation change alone does not necessarily indicate the sign of the soluble pollutant response to climate change. Over certain latitudinal bands, however, the annual wet deposition change can be explained mainly by the simulated changes in large-scale (LS) precipitation. In regions such as North America, differences in the seasonality of LS precipitation and tracer burdens contribute to an apparent inconsistency of changes in annual wet deposition versus annual precipitation. As a step toward an ultimate goal of developing a simple index that can be applied to infer changes in soluble pollutants directly from changes in precipitation fields as projected by physical climate models, we explore here a "Diagnosed Precipitation Impact" (DPI) index. This index captures the sign and magnitude (within 50%) of the relative annual mean changes in the global wet deposition of the soluble pollutant. DPI can only be usefully applied in climate models in which LS precipitation dominates wet deposition and horizontal transport patterns change
Precipitation Rate Investigation on synthesis of precipitated calcium carbonate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sulistiyono, E.; Handayani, M.; Firdiyono, F.; Fajariani, E. N.
2018-03-01
Study on the formation of precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi with the influenced of various parameters such as precipitation rate, concentration of CaCl2 and amplitudes were investigated. We also investigated the result with the precipitated calcium carbonate from Merck (p.a) for comparison. The higher concentration of CaCl2 would give effect to the lower of the precipitation rate. It was observed that precipitation rate of calcium carbonate from limestone Sukabumi at concentration of 0.08 molar was 3.66 cm/minutes and showing the optimum condition, while the precipitation rate of calcium carbonate Merck at the concentration 0.08 molar was 3.53 cm/minutes. The characterization of precipitated calcium carbonate was done using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and scanning electron microscope (SEM). The characterization using XRF showed that CaO content of precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi had high purity of 99.16%. The particle distribution using scanning electron microscope (SEM) showed that precipitated calcium carbonate from natural limestone Sukabumi revealed 1.79 µm – 11.46 µm, meanwhile the particle distribution of precipitated calcium carbonate Merck showed larger particles with the size of 3.22 µm – 10.68 µm.
Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L
2017-08-15
The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, J.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.; Ferraro, R. D.; Case, J. L.; Iguchi, T.; Kemp, E.; Putman, W.; Wang, W.; Wu, D.; Tian, B.
2018-01-01
Winter precipitation (PR) characteristics in western United States (WUS) related to atmospheric river (AR) landfalls are examined using the observation-based PRISM data. The observed AR-related precipitation characteristics are in turn used to evaluate model precipitation data from the NASA MERRA2 reanalysis and from seven dynamical downscaling simulations driven by the MERRA2. Multiple metrics including mean bias, Taylor diagram, and two skill scores are used to measure model performance for three climatological sub-regions in WUS, Pacific Northwest (PNW), Pacific Southwest (PSW) and Great Basin (GB). All model data well represent the winter-mean PR with spatial pattern correlations of 0.8 or higher with PRISM for the three sub-regions. Higher spatial resolutions and/or the use of spectral nudging generally yield higher skill scores in simulating the geographical distribution of PR for the entire winter. The PRISM data shows that the AR-related fraction of winter PR and associated daily PR PDFs in each region vary strongly for landfall locations; AR landfalls in the northern WUS coast (NC) affect mostly PNW while those in the southern WUS coast (SC) affect both PSW and GB. NC (SC) landfalls increase the frequency of heavy PR in PNW (PSW and GB) but reduce it in PSW (PNW). All model data reasonably represent these observed variations in the AR-related winter PR fractions and the daily PR PDFs according to AR landfall locations. However, unlike for the entire winter period, no systematic effects of resolution and/or spectral nudging are identified in these AR-related PR characteristics. Dynamical downscaling in this study generally yield positive added values to the MERRA2 PR in the AR-related PR fraction for most sub-regions and landfall locations, most noticeably for PSW by NU-WRF. The downscaling also generate positive added value in p95 for PNW, but negative values for PSW and GB due to overestimation of heavy precipitation events.
Evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Asian domain: observation and modelling studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, In-Won; Oh, Jaiho; Woo, Sumin; Kripalani, R. H.
2018-04-01
In this study, a comparison in the precipitation extremes as exhibited by the seven reference datasets is made to ascertain whether the inferences based on these datasets agree or they differ. These seven datasets, roughly grouped in three categories i.e. rain-gauge based (APHRODITE, CPC-UNI), satellite-based (TRMM, GPCP1DD) and reanalysis based (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA55), having a common data period 1998-2007 are considered. Focus is to examine precipitation extremes in the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Measures of extreme precipitation include the percentile thresholds, frequency of extreme precipitation events and other quantities. Results reveal that the differences in displaying extremes among the datasets are small over South Asia and East Asia but large differences among the datasets are displayed over the Southeast Asian region including the maritime continent. Furthermore, precipitation data appear to be more consistent over East Asia among the seven datasets. Decadal trends in extreme precipitation are consistent with known results over South and East Asia. No trends in extreme precipitation events are exhibited over Southeast Asia. Outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulation data are categorized as high, medium and low-resolution models. The regions displaying maximum intensity of extreme precipitation appear to be dependent on model resolution. High-resolution models simulate maximum intensity of extreme precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, medium-resolution models over northeast India and South China and the low-resolution models over Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand. In summary, there are differences in displaying extreme precipitation statistics among the seven datasets considered here and among the 29 CMIP5 model data outputs.
Historical Changes in Precipitation and Streamflow in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin, 1915-2004
Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Aichele, Stephen S.
2007-01-01
The total amount of water in the Great Lakes Basin is important in the long-term allocation of water to human use and to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. The water available during low-flow periods is particularly important because the short-term demands for the water can exceed the supply. Precipitation increased over the last 90 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Total annual precipitation increased by 4.5 inches from 1915 to 2004 (based on the average of 34 U.S. Historical Climatology Network stations), 3.5 inches from 1935 to 2004 (average of 34 stations), and 4.2 inches from 1955 to 2004 (average of 37 stations). Variability in precipitation from year to year was large, but there were numerous years with relatively low precipitation in the 1930s and 1960s and many years with relatively high precipitation after about 1970. Annual runoff increased over the last 50 years in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin. Mean annual runoff increased by 2.6 inches, based on the average of 43 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations from 1955 to 2004 on streams that were relatively free of human influences. Variability in runoff from year to year was large, but on average runoff was relatively low from 1955 to about 1970 and relatively high from about 1970 to 1995. Runoff increased at all stations in the basin except in and near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where relatively small runoff decreases occurred. Changes in annual runoff for the 16 stations with data from 1935 to 2004 were similar to the changes from 1955 to 2004. The mean annual 7-day low runoff (the lowest annual average of 7 consecutive days of runoff) increased from 1955 to 2004 by 0.048 cubic feet per second per square mile based on the average of 27 stations. Runoff in the U.S. Great Lakes Basin from 1955 to 2004 increased for all months except April. November through January and July precipitation and runoff increased by similar amounts. There were differences between precipitation and runoff changes
Rocket observations of the precipitation of electrons by ground VLF transmitters
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arnoldy, Roger L.; Kintner, Paul M.
1989-01-01
Recent results obtained with electric and magnetic receivers aboard a NASA sounding rocket launched on July 31, 1987 are presented which relate multiple electron spectral peaks observed in the bounce loss cone fluxes to the resonant interaction of electrons with VLF waves from ground transmitters. The correlation of transmitter signals passing through the ionosphere with the precipitated electrons was investigated. The analysis of these in situ wave and particle data addresses the propagation of waves through the ionosphere, and, through an application of the resonant theory, enables an estimation of the cold plasma density in the interaction region.
The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.
2011-12-01
Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.
Is convective precipitation increasing? The case of Catalonia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Llasat, M. C.; Marcos, R.; Turco, M.
2012-04-01
A recent work (Turco and Llasat, 2011) has been performed to analyse the trends of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003, calculated from a interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution. This work has showed that no general trends at a regional scale have been observed, considering the annual and the seasonal regional values, and only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern. Simultaneously, Llasat et al (2009, 2010) have showed an important increase of flash-flood events in the same region. Although aspects related with vulnerability, exposure and changes in uses of soil have been found as the main responsible of this increase, a major knowledge on the evolution of high rainfall events is mandatory. Heavy precipitation is usually associated to convective precipitation and therefore the analysis of the latter is a good indicator of it. Particularly, in Catalonia, funding was raised to define a parameter, designated as β, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation (Llasat, 2001). This parameter estimates the contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation using 1-min or 5-min rainfall intensities usually estimated by rain gauges and it can be also analysed by means of the meteorological radar (Llasat et al, 2007). Its monthly distribution shows a maximum in August, followed by September, which are the months with the major number of flash-floods in Catalonia. This parameter also allows distinguishing between different kinds of precipitation events taking into account the degree of convective contribution. The main problem is the lack of long rainfall rate series that allow analysing trends in convective precipitation. The second one is related with its heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution. To
Acidic deposition on Taiwan and associated precipitation patterns
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Lin, N.H.; Chen, C.S.; Peng, C.M.
1996-12-31
The acidic deposition on Taiwan is assessed based on precipitation chemistry observed through a nationwide monitoring network of acid rain. Ten sites have been operated since 1990. These sites were further categorized into five categories, namely, the northern (A), middle (B), southern (C), and eastern (D) Taiwan, and background (E), according to their geographical consideration. As a result, the averages (1990-1994) of pH values for the northern sites were between 4.46-4.63, whereas, the rest sites, excluding a southern site near the industrial area, had their averages greater than 5.0. The average concentrations of sulfate ions for these sites of meanmore » pH < 5.0, ranged between 103 and 148 {mu}eq {ell}{sup -1}. The mean concentrations of nitrate ions for urban sites were about 30-50% of sulfate concentrations. Using these sulfate and nitrate concentrations and rainfall data, the deposition fluxes for these sites were calculated. The overall averages of annual sulfate deposition for five areas (categories A-E) were 118, 60, 64, 60 and 25 kg ha{sup -1}, respectively, which were generally greater than those of 20-40 kg ha{sup -1} observed in the eastern USA. For the nitrate deposition, these five areas had the averages of 59, 38, 33, 40 and 16 kg ha{sup -1}, respectively. One of the important reasons why Taiwan had received higher sulfate and nitrate deposition was due to a great amount of precipitation over this subtropical island. For the northern Taiwan, more than 70% of precipitation events were stratiform and frontal precipitation associated with the northeastern monsoons, and frontal systems during the winter and spring (especially, the Mei-Yu) seasons, respectively. In addition to local effects, the long-range transport of acid substances are thought to play an important role.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Benyon, Richard G.; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Jaskierniak, Dominik; Kuczera, George; Haydon, Shane R.
2015-07-01
Mean sapwood thickness, measured in fifteen 73 year old Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis stands, correlated strongly with forest overstorey stocking density (R2 0.72). This curvilinear relationship was used with routine forest stocking density and basal area measurements to estimate sapwood area of the forest overstorey at various times in 15 research catchments in undisturbed and disturbed forests located in the Great Dividing Range, Victoria, Australia. Up to 45 years of annual precipitation and streamflow data available from the 15 catchments were used to examine relationships between mean annual loss (evapotranspiration estimated as mean annual precipitation minus mean annual streamflow), and sapwood area. Catchment mean sapwood area correlated strongly (R2 0.88) with catchment mean annual loss. Variation in sapwood area accounted for 68% more variation in mean annual streamflow than precipitation alone (R2 0.90 compared with R2 0.22). Changes in sapwood area accounted for 96% of the changes in mean annual loss observed after forest thinning or clear-cutting and regeneration. We conclude that forest inventory data can be used reliably to predict spatial and temporal variation in catchment annual losses and streamflow in response to natural and imposed disturbances in even-aged forests. Consequently, recent advances in mapping of sapwood area using airborne light detection and ranging will enable high resolution spatial and temporal mapping of mean annual loss and mean annual streamflow over large areas of forested catchment. This will be particularly beneficial in management of water resources from forested catchments subject to disturbance but lacking reliable long-term (years to decades) streamflow records.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, Jianping; Deng, Minjun; Lee, Seoung Soo; Wang, Fu; Li, Zhanqing; Zhai, Panmao; Liu, Huan; Lv, Weitao; Yao, Wen; Li, Xiaowen
2016-06-01
The radiative and microphysical effects of aerosols can affect the development of convective clouds. The objective of this study is to reveal if the overall aerosol effects have any discernible impact on the diurnal variations in precipitation and lightning by means of both observational analysis and modeling. As the first part of two companion studies, this paper is concerned with analyzing hourly PM10, precipitation, and lightning data collected during the summers of 2008-2012 in the Pearl River Delta region. Daily PM10 data were categorized as clean, medium, or polluted so that any differences in the diurnal variations in precipitation and lightning could be examined. Heavy precipitation and lightning were found to occur more frequently later in the day under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. Analyses of the diurnal variations in several meteorological factors such as air temperature, vertical velocity, and wind speed were also performed. They suggest that the influence of aerosol radiative and microphysical effects serve to suppress and enhance convective activities, respectively. Under heavy pollution conditions, the reduction in solar radiation reaching the surface delays the occurrence of strong convection and postpones heavy precipitation to late in the day when the aerosol invigoration effect more likely comes into play. Although the effect of aerosol particles can be discernible on the heavy precipitation through the daytime, the influence of concurrent atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics cannot be ruled out.
Depth-Duration Frequency of Precipitation for Oklahoma
Tortorelli, Robert L.; Rea, Alan; Asquith, William H.
1999-01-01
A regional frequency analysis was conducted to estimate the depth-duration frequency of precipitation for 12 durations in Oklahoma (15, 30, and 60 minutes; 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours; and 1, 3, and 7 days). Seven selected frequencies, expressed as recurrence intervals, were investigated (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years). L-moment statistics were used to summarize depth-duration data and to determine the appropriate statistical distributions. Three different rain-gage networks provided the data (15minute, 1-hour, and 1-day). The 60-minute, and 1-hour; and the 24-hour, and 1-day durations were analyzed separately. Data were used from rain-gage stations with at least 10-years of record and within Oklahoma or about 50 kilometers into bordering states. Precipitation annual maxima (depths) were determined from the data for 110 15-minute, 141 hourly, and 413 daily stations. The L-moment statistics for depths for all durations were calculated for each station using unbiased L-mo-ment estimators for the mean, L-scale, L-coefficient of variation, L-skew, and L-kur-tosis. The relation between L-skew and L-kurtosis (L-moment ratio diagram) and goodness-of-fit measures were used to select the frequency distributions. The three-parameter generalized logistic distribution was selected to model the frequencies of 15-, 30-, and 60-minute annual maxima; and the three-parameter generalized extreme-value distribution was selected to model the frequencies of 1-hour to 7-day annual maxima. The mean for each station and duration was corrected for the bias associated with fixed interval recording of precipitation amounts. The L-scale and spatially averaged L-skew statistics were used to compute the location, scale, and shape parameters of the selected distribution for each station and duration. The three parameters were used to calculate the depth-duration-frequency relations for each station. The precipitation depths for selected frequencies were contoured from weighted depth
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.
2007-12-01
The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.
Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying
2016-01-01
This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season.
Gómez-Mendoza, L; Galicia, L; Cuevas-Fernández, M L; Magaña, V; Gómez, G; Palacio-Prieto, J L
2008-07-01
Variations in the normalized vegetation index (NDVI) for the state of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico, were analyzed in terms of precipitation anomalies for the period 1997-2003. Using 10-day averages in NDVI data, obtained from AVHRR satellite information, the response of six types of vegetation to intra-annual and inter-annual fluctuations in precipitation were examined. The onset and temporal evolution of the greening period were studied in terms of precipitation variations through spectral analysis (coherence and phase). The results indicate that extremely dry periods, such as those observed in 1997 and 2001, resulted in low values of NDVI for much of Oaxaca, while good precipitation periods produced a rapid response (20-30 days of delay) from a stressed to a non-stressed condition in most vegetation types. One of these rapid changes occurred during the transition from dry to wet conditions during the summer of 1998. As in many parts of the tropics and subtropics, the NDVI reflects low frequency variations in precipitation on several spatial scales. Even after long dry periods (2001-2002), the various regional vegetation types are capable of recovering when a good rainy season takes place, indicating that vegetation types such as the evergreen forests in the high parts of Oaxaca respond better to rainfall characteristics (timing, amount) than to temperature changes, as is the case in most mid-latitudes. This finding may be relevant to prepare climate change scenarios for forests, where increases in surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected.
TOWARDS AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF SIMULATED AND OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTREME PRECIPITATION
The evaluation of climate model precipitation is expected to reveal biases in simulated mean and extreme precipitation which may be a result of coarse model resolution or inefficiencies in the precipitation generating mechanisms in models. The analysis of future extreme precip...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Cailin; Ren, Xuehui; Li, Ying
2017-04-01
We defined the threshold of extreme precipitation using detrended fluctuation analysis based on daily precipitation during 1955-2013 in Kuandian County, Liaoning Province. Three-dimensional copulas were introduced to analyze the characteristics of four extreme precipitation factors: the annual extreme precipitation day, extreme precipitation amount, annual average extreme precipitation intensity, and extreme precipitation rate of contribution. The results show that (1) the threshold is 95.0 mm, extreme precipitation events generally occur 1-2 times a year, the average extreme precipitation intensity is 100-150 mm, and the extreme precipitation amount is 100-270 mm accounting for 10 to 37 % of annual precipitation. (2) The generalized extreme value distribution, extreme value distribution, and generalized Pareto distribution are suitable for fitting the distribution function for each element of extreme precipitation. The Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) copula function reflects the joint characteristics of extreme precipitation factors. (3) The return period of the three types has significant synchronicity, and the joint return period and co-occurrence return period have long delay when the return period of the single factor is long. This reflects the inalienability of extreme precipitation factors. The co-occurrence return period is longer than that of the single factor and joint return period. (4) The single factor fitting only reflects single factor information of extreme precipitation but is unrelated to the relationship between factors. Three-dimensional copulas represent the internal information of extreme precipitation factors and are closer to the actual. The copula function is potentially widely applicable for the multiple factors of extreme precipitation.
Xiong, Lihua; Jiang, Cong; Du, Tao
2014-01-01
Time-varying moments models based on Pearson Type III and normal distributions respectively are built under the generalized additive model in location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework to analyze the nonstationarity of the annual runoff series of the Weihe River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The detection of nonstationarities in hydrological time series (annual runoff, precipitation and temperature) from 1960 to 2009 is carried out using a GAMLSS model, and then the covariate analysis for the annual runoff series is implemented with GAMLSS. Finally, the attribution of each covariate to the nonstationarity of annual runoff is analyzed quantitatively. The results demonstrate that (1) obvious change-points exist in all three hydrological series, (2) precipitation, temperature and irrigated area are all significant covariates of the annual runoff series, and (3) temperature increase plays the main role in leading to the reduction of the annual runoff series in the study basin, followed by the decrease of precipitation and the increase of irrigated area.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Qu, Sai; Singh, Ramesh P.; Lai, Zhongping; Yao, Rui
2018-05-01
coefficients showed that annual mean NDVI was closely correlated with temperature extremes during 1982-2015 and 1995-2015, but no significant correlation with precipitation extremes was observed. However, the decrease in NDVI was correlated with increasing R95p and R95 during 1982-1994.
Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuan, F.
2016-12-01
The source region of the Yellow River contributes about 35% of the total water yield in the Yellow River basin playing an important role in meeting downstream water resources requirements. The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relations between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Nino Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted using these significantly correlated climate indices, and the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was in general larger than 0.6. The results are useful for integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara; daSilva, Arlindo; Li, Frank; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations relies on what we know about how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, and the large-scale circulation vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process that links these key climate elements is precipitation. Improving the fidelity of precipitation-related fields in global analyses is essential for gaining a better understanding of the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, research and operational use of precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have shown the tremendous potential of using these data to improve global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. We will give an overview of the benefits of assimilating TRMM and SSM/I rain rates and discuss developmental strategies for using space-based rainfall and rainfall-related observations to improve forecast models and climate datasets in preparation for the proposed multi-national Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).
Temporal trends in the acidity of precipitation and surface waters of New York
Peters, Norman E.; Schroeder, Roy A.; Troutman, David E.
1982-01-01
Statistical analyses of precipitation data from a nine-station monitoring network indicate little change in pH from 1965-78 within New York State as a whole but suggest that pH of bulk precipitation has decreased in the western part of the State by approximately 0.2 pH units since 1965 and increased in the eastern part by a similar amount. This trend is equivalent to an annual change in hydrogen-ion concentration of 0.2 microequivalents per liter. An average annual increase in precipitation quantity of 2 to 3 percent since 1965 has resulted in an increased acid load in the western and central parts of the State. During 1965-78, sulfate concentration in precipitation decreased an average of 1-4 percent annually. In general, no trend in nitrate was detected. Calculated trends in hydrogen-ion concentration do not correlate with measured trends of sulfate and nitrate, which suggests variable neutralization of hydrogen ion, possibly by particles from dry deposition. Neutralization has produced an increase of about 0.3 pH units in nonurban areas and 0.7 pH units in urban areas. Statistical analyses of chemical data from several streams throughout New York suggest that sulfate concentrations decreased an average of 1 to 4 percent per year. This decrease is comparable to the sulfate decrease in precipitation during the same period. In most areas of the State, chemical contributions from urbanization and farming, as well as the neutralizing effect of carbonate soils, conceal whatever effects acid precipitation may have on pH of streams.
Can energy fluxes be used to interpret glacial/interglacial precipitation changes in the tropics?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roberts, W. H. G.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.
2017-06-01
Recent theoretical advances in the relationship between heat transport and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) present an elegant framework through which to interpret past changes in tropical precipitation patterns. Using a very large ensemble of climate model simulations, we investigate whether it is possible to use this framework to interpret changes in the position of the ITCZ in response to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions. We find that the centroid of tropical precipitation, which represents the evolution of precipitation in the whole tropics, is best correlated with heat transport changes. We find that the response of the annual mean ITCZ to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions is quite different to the response of the climatological annual cycle of the ITCZ to the seasonal cycle of insolation. We show that the reason for this is that while the Hadley Circulation plays a dominant role in transporting heat over the seasonal cycle, in the annual mean response to forcing, the Hadley Circulation is not dominant. When we look regionally, rather than at the zonal mean, we find that local precipitation is poorly related either to the zonal mean ITCZ or to meridional heat transport. We demonstrate that precipitation is spatially highly variable even when the zonal mean ITCZ is in the same location. This suggests only limited use for heat transport in explaining local precipitation records; thus, there is limited scope for using heat transport changes to explain individual paleoprecipitation records.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.
2016-12-01
Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.
Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals
Ahlers, Adam A.; Cotner, Lisa A.; Wolff, Patrick J.; Mitchell, Mark A.; Heske, Edward J.; Schooley, Robert L.
2015-01-01
Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models. PMID:26284916
Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals.
Ahlers, Adam A; Cotner, Lisa A; Wolff, Patrick J; Mitchell, Mark A; Heske, Edward J; Schooley, Robert L
2015-01-01
Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007-2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.
Measuring precipitation with a geolysimeter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Craig D.; van der Kamp, Garth; Arnold, Lauren; Schmidt, Randy
2017-10-01
Using the relationship between measured groundwater pressures in deep observation wells and total surface loading, a geological weighing lysimeter (geolysimeter) has the capability of measuring precipitation event totals independently of conventional precipitation gauge observations. Correlations between groundwater pressure change and event precipitation were observed at a co-located site near Duck Lake, SK, over a multi-year and multi-season period. Correlation coefficients (r2) varied from 0.99 for rainfall to 0.94 for snowfall. The geolysimeter was shown to underestimate rainfall by 7 % while overestimating snowfall by 9 % as compared to the unadjusted gauge precipitation. It is speculated that the underestimation of rainfall is due to unmeasured run-off and evapotranspiration within the response area of the geolysimeter during larger rainfall events, while the overestimation of snow is at least partially due to the systematic undercatch common to most precipitation gauges due to wind. Using recently developed transfer functions from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (SPICE), bias adjustments were applied to the Alter-shielded, Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge measurements of snowfall to mitigate wind-induced errors. The bias between the gauge and geolysimeter measurements was reduced to 3 %. This suggests that the geolysimeter is capable of accurately measuring solid precipitation and can be used as an independent and representative reference of true precipitation.
Correlation between total precipitable water and precipitation over East Asia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keum, Wangho; Lim, Gyu-Ho
2017-04-01
The precipitation rate(PR) and the total precipitable water(TPW) interact with various physical mechanisms. The correlation of two variables changes with difference of domain resolution and characteristics of the region. This poster analyzes the correlation between PR and TPW over East Asia using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function(CSEOF) which is one of the PCA analysis. The CSEOF is useful to search a periodic pattern of the data. The anomalies which is subtracted climatological mean from the original data are used to represent annual cycles. Two variances of ERA-Interim Monthly Total Column Water vapor and GPCP monthly precipitation amounts with 372 time since January, 1984 to December, 2014 are decomposed into several modes separately. The first mode which explain largest variance are used in analysis. PC of both PR and TPW increase recently on mean value and amplitude, and they show considerable correlation on phase. The correlation coefficient of PR and TPW is 0.61 and maintains the same values by month. The result of harmonic analysis shows 2 to 6 year oscillations. As result of decomposed modes of two variables, there is the relationship between TPW PC series and horizontal moisture gradient. The Horizontal moist gradient can change affect moisture flux convergence which is one of important variable of rainfall events.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried D.
2013-01-01
The dominant pattern of annual mean SST variability in the Pacific (in its cold phase) produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States (U.S.) throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects the U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results, based on observations and reanalyses, show that the peak precipitation deficit over the U.S. during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern U.S., and secondarily due to a reduction in local evaporation from land-atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern U.S. that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological flow associated with the north Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby Intra-American Seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the U.S. is mainly the result of local land-atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the U.S. make little contribution. An evaluation of NSIPP-1 AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the Intra-American Seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the U.S., a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Naud, Catherine M.; Posselt, Derek J.; van den Heever, Susan C.
2012-01-01
Extratropical cyclones are responsible for most of the precipitation and wind damage in the midlatitudes during the cold season, but there are still uncertainties on how they will change in a warming climate. An ubiquitous problem amongst General Circulation Models (GCMs) is a lack of cloudiness over the southern oceans that may be in part caused by a lack of clouds in cyclones. We analyze CloudSat, CALIPSO and AMSR-E observations for 3 austral and boreal cold seasons and composite cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation at the warm fronts for northern and southern hemisphere oceanic cyclones. We find that cloud frequency of occurrence and precipitation rate are similar in the early stage of the cyclone life cycle in both northern and southern hemispheres. As cyclones evolve and reach their mature stage, cloudiness and precipitation at the warm front increase in the northern hemisphere but decrease in the southern hemisphere. This is partly caused by lower amounts of precipitable water being available to southern hemisphere cyclones, and smaller increases in wind speed as the cyclones evolve. Southern hemisphere cloud occurrence at the warm front is found to be more sensitive to the amount of moisture in the warm sector than to wind speeds. This suggests that cloudiness in southern hemisphere storms may be more susceptible to changes in atmospheric water vapor content, and thus to changes in surface temperature than their northern hemisphere counterparts. These differences between northern and southern hemisphere cyclones are statistically robust, indicating A-Train-based analyses as useful tools for evaluation of GCMs in the next IPCC report.
A Precipitation Climatology of the Snowy Mountains, Australia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Theobald, Alison; McGowan, Hamish; Speirs, Johanna
2014-05-01
The precipitation that falls in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia provides critical water resources for hydroelectric power generation. Water storages in this region are also a major source of agricultural irrigation, environmental flows, and offer a degree of flood protection for some of the major river systems in Australia. Despite this importance, there remains a knowledge gap regarding the long-term, historic variability of the synoptic weather systems that deliver precipitation to the region. This research aims to increase the understanding of long-term variations in precipitation-bearing weather systems resulting in runoff into the Snowy Mountains catchments and reservoirs, and the way in which these are influenced by large-scale climate drivers. Here we present initial results on the development of a climatology of precipitation-bearing synoptic weather systems (synoptic typology), spanning a period of over 100 years. The synoptic typology is developed from the numerical weather model re-analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in conjunction with regional precipitation and temperature data from a network of private gauges. Given the importance of surface, mid- and upper-air patterns on seasonal precipitation, the synoptic typing will be based on a range of meteorological variables throughout the depth of the troposphere, highlighting the importance of different atmospheric levels on the development and steering of synoptic precipitation bearing systems. The temporal and spatial variability of these synoptic systems, their response to teleconnection forcings and their contribution to inflow generation in the headwater catchments of the Snowy Mountains will be investigated. The resulting climatology will provide new understanding of the drivers of regional-scale precipitation variability at inter- and intra-annual timescales. It will enable greater understanding of how variability in synoptic scale
Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang
2016-04-01
The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.
The Precipitation Characteristics of ISCCP Tropical Weather States
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, Dongmin; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Huffman, George J.; Rossow, William B.; Kang, In-Sik
2011-01-01
We examine the daytime precipitation characteristics of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states in the extended tropics (35 deg S to 35 deg N) for a 10-year period. Our main precipitation data set is the TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 data set, but Global Precipitation Climatology Project daily data are also used for comparison. We find that the most convective weather state (WS1), despite an occurrence frequency below 10%, is the most dominant state with regard to surface precipitation, producing both the largest mean precipitation rates when present and the largest percent contribution to the total precipitation of the tropical zone of our study; yet, even this weather state appears to not precipitate about half the time. WS1 exhibits a modest annual cycle of domain-average precipitation rate, but notable seasonal shifts in its geographic distribution. The precipitation rates of the other weather states tend to be stronger when occurring before or after WS1. The relative contribution of the various weather states to total precipitation is different between ocean and land, with WS1 producing more intense precipitation on average over ocean than land. The results of this study, in addition to advancing our understanding of the current state of tropical precipitation, can serve as a higher order diagnostic test on whether it is distributed realistically among different weather states in atmospheric models.
Comparison of GPM IMERG, TMPA 3B42 and PERSIANN-CDR satellite precipitation products over Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tan, Mou Leong; Santo, Harrif
2018-04-01
The launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission has prompted the assessment of the newly released satellite precipitation products (SPPs) in different parts of the world. This study performed an initial comparison of three GPM IMERG products (IMERG_E, IMERG_L and IMERG_F) with its predecessor, the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT products, and a long-term PERSIANN-CDR product over Malaysia. The performance of six SPPs was evaluated using 501 precipitation gauges from 12 March 2014 to 29 February 2016. The annual, seasonal, monthly and daily precipitation measurements were validated using three widely used statistical metrics (CC, RMSE and RB). The precipitation detection capability (POD, FAR and CSI), probability density function (PDF) and the 2014-2015 flood event analysis were also considered in this assessment. The results show that all the SPPs perform well in annual and monthly precipitation measurements. The spatial variability of the total annual precipitation in 2015 is well captured by all six SPPs, with high precipitation amount in southern East Malaysia, and low precipitation amount in the middle part of Peninsular Malaysia. In contrast, all the SPPs show moderate correlation at daily precipitation estimations, with better performance during the northeast monsoon season. The performance of all the SPPs is better in eastern Peninsular Malaysia, but poorer in northern Peninsular Malaysia. All the SPPs have good precipitation detection ability, except the PERSIANN-CDR. All the SPPs underestimate the light (0-1 mm/day) and violent (> 50 mm/day) precipitation classes, but overestimate moderate and heavy (1-50 mm/day) precipitation classes. The IMERG is shown to have a better capability in detecting light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) compared to the other SPPs. The PERSIANN-CDR has the worst performance in capturing all the precipitation classes, with significant underestimation of light precipitation (0-1 mm/day) class and overestimation of moderate and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coppola, E.; Fantini, A.; Raffaele, F.; Torma, C. Z.; Bacer, S.; Giorgi, F.; Ahrens, B.; Dubois, C.; Sanchez, E.; Verdecchia, M.
2017-12-01
We assess the statistics of different daily precipitation indices in ensembles of Med-CORDEX and EUROCORDEX experiments at high resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.11° , or RCM11) and medium resolution (grid spacing of ˜0.44° , or RCM44) with regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis of observations for the period 1989-2008. The assessment is carried out by comparison with a set of high resolution observation datasets for 9 European subregions. The statistics analyzed include quantitative metrics for mean precipitation, daily precipitation Probability Density Functions (PDFs), daily precipitation intensity, frequency, 95th percentile and 95th percentile of dry spell length. We assess both an ensemble including all Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX models and one including the Med-CORDEX models alone. For the All Models ensembles, the RCM11 one shows a remarkable performance in reproducing the spatial patterns and seasonal cycle of mean precipitation over all regions, with a consistent and marked improvement compared to the RCM44 ensemble and the ERA-Interim reanalysis. A good consistency with observations by the RCM11 ensemble (and a substantial improvement compared to RCM44 and ERA-Interim) is found also for the daily precipitation PDFs, mean intensity and, to a lesser extent, the 95th percentile. In fact, for some regions the RCM11 ensemble overestimates the occurrence of very high intensity events while for one region the models underestimate the occurrence of the largest extremes. The RCM11 ensemble still shows a general tendency to underestimate the dry day frequency and 95th percentile of dry spell length over wetter regions, with only a marginal improvement compared to the lower resolution models. This indicates that the problem of the excessive production of low precipitation events found in many climate models persists also at relatively high resolutions, at least in wet climate regimes. Concerning the Med-CORDEX model ensembles we find
Vertical structure of precipitating shallow echoes observed from TRMM during Indian summer monsoon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, Shailendra
2017-08-01
The present study explores the properties of precipitating shallow echoes (PSEs) over the tropical areas (30°S-30°N) during Indian summer monsoon season using attenuated corrected radar reflectivity factor (Ze) measured by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Radar echoes observed in study are less than the freezing height, so they belong to warm precipitation. Radar echoes with at least 0.75 km wide are considered for finding the shallow echoes climatology. Western Ghats and adjoining ocean (Arabian sea) have the highest PSEs followed by Myanmar and Burma coast, whereas the overall west coast of Latin America consists of the lowest PSEs. Tropical oceanic areas contain fewer PSEs compared to coastal areas. Average vertical profiles show nearly similar Ze characteristics which peaks between 1.5 and 2 km altitude with model value 32-34 dBZ. Slope of Ze is higher for intense PSEs as radar reflectivity decreases more rapidly in intense PSEs.
On observed aridity changes over the semiarid regions of India in a warming climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramarao, M. V. S.; Sanjay, J.; Krishnan, R.; Mujumdar, M.; Bazaz, Amir; Revi, Aromar
2018-05-01
In this study, a quantitative assessment of observed aridity variations over the semiarid regions of India is performed for the period 1951-2005 using a dimensionless ratio of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET), estimated from five different observed gridded precipitation data sets. The climatological values and changes of this aridity index are found to be sensitive to the choice of the precipitation observations. An assessment of P/PET estimated using the ensemble mean precipitation shows an increase in aridity over several semiarid regions of India, despite the sensitivity of P/PET variations across individual precipitation data sets. Our results indicate that precipitation variations over the semiarid regions of India are outpacing the changes in potential evapotranspiration and, thereby, influencing aridity changes in a significant manner. Our results further reveal a 10% expansion in the area of the semiarid regions during recent decades relative to previous decades, thus highlighting the need for better adaptation strategies and mitigation planning for the semiarid regions in India. The sensitivity of aridity index to multiple PET data sets can be an additional source of uncertainty and will be addressed in a future study.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda
2018-05-01
Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual
Sun, Long; Zhang, Guang-hui; Luan, Li-li; Li, Zhen-wei; Geng, Ren
2016-02-01
Along the 368-591 mm precipitation gradient, 7 survey sites, i.e. a total 63 investigated plots were selected. At each sites, woodland, grassland, and cropland with similar restoration age were selected to investigate soil organic carbon distribution in surface soil (0-30 cm), and the influence of factors, e.g. climate, soil depth, and land uses, on soil organic carbon distribution were analyzed. The result showed that, along the precipitation gradient, the grassland (8.70 g . kg-1) > woodland (7.88 g . kg-1) > farmland (7.73 g . kg-1) in concentration and the grassland (20.28 kg . m-2) > farmland (19.34 kg . m-2) > woodland (17.14 kg . m-2) in density. The differences of soil organic carbon concentration of three land uses were not significant. Further analysis of pooled data of three land uses showed that the surface soil organic carbon concentration differed significantly at different precipitation levels (P<0.00 1). Significant positive relationship was detected between mean annual precipitation and soil organic carbon concentration (r=0.838, P<0.001) in the of pooled data. From south to north (start from northernmost Ordos), i.e. along the 368-591 mm precipitation gradient, the soil organic carbon increased with annual precipitation 0. 04 g . kg-1 . mm-1, density 0.08 kg . m-2 . mm-1. The soil organic carbon distribution was predicted with mean annual precipitation, soil clay content, plant litter in woodland, and root density in farmland.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lynch, K. A.; Gayetsky, L.; Fernandes, P. A.; Zettergren, M. D.; Lessard, M.; Cohen, I. J.; Hampton, D. L.; Ahrns, J.; Hysell, D. L.; Powell, S.; Miceli, R. J.; Moen, J. I.; Bekkeng, T.
2012-12-01
Auroral precipitation can modify the ionospheric thermal plasma through a variety of processes. We examine and compare the events seen by two recent auroral sounding rockets carrying in situ thermal plasma instrumentation. The Cascades2 sounding rocket (March 2009, Poker Flat Research Range) traversed a pre-midnight poleward boundary intensification (PBI) event distinguished by a stationary Alfvenic curtain of field-aligned precipitation. The MICA sounding rocket (February 2012, Poker Flat Research Range) traveled through irregular precipitation following the passage of a strong westward-travelling surge. Previous modelling of the ionospheric effects of auroral precipitation used a one-dimensional model, TRANSCAR, which had a simplified treatment of electric fields and did not have the benefit of in situ thermal plasma data. This new study uses a new two-dimensional model which self-consistently calculates electric fields to explore both spatial and temporal effects, and compares to thermal plasma observations. A rigorous understanding of the ambient thermal plasma parameters and their effects on the local spacecraft sheath and charging, is required for quantitative interpretation of in situ thermal plasma observations. To complement this TRANSCAR analysis we therefore require a reliable means of interpreting in situ thermal plasma observation. This interpretation depends upon a rigorous plasma sheath model since the ambient ion energy is on the order of the spacecraft's sheath energy. A self-consistent PIC model is used to model the spacecraft sheath, and a test-particle approach then predicts the detector response for a given plasma environment. The model parameters are then modified until agreement is found with the in situ data. We find that for some situations, the thermal plasma parameters are strongly driven by the precipitation at the observation time. For other situations, the previous history of the precipitation at that position can have a stronger
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Raz-Yaseef, N.; Sonnentag, O.; Kobayashi, H.; Baldocchi, D. D.
2010-12-01
was correlated with the timing of first rains, emphasizing the higher dependence of the floor component on P, as reflected in higher IAV of the grasses compared to the trees. On average, models simulated annual fluxes well (R2>0.93), but IAV of the trees was higher than measured (24%), mostly due to model underestimation during dry years. A threshold at P~500 mm yr-1 was observed (both in measurements and modeled results), above which tree transpiration barely increased. The high IAV of the floor component was not replicated in the models (SDV=5%), although this flux accounted for 55% of total ET. Based on our study we conclude that trees in this semi-arid ecosystem have developed adaptive mechanisms that buffer themselves from the year-to-year variations in precipitation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Vincent, Dayton G.
1994-01-01
This research grant was a revised version of an original proposal. The period of the grant was for three years with a six-month no-cost extension; thus, it was from 20 July 1990 to 19 January 1994. The objectives of the grant were to identify periods and locations of active convection centers, primarily over the Southern Hemisphere tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans; determine reasons for any periodic behavior found in the first objective; identify cases where subtropical jets over the South Pacific persisted for several days and examine the influences of tropical versus extra-tropical mechanisms in maintaining them; obtain estimates of precipitation by Q(sub 1) and Q(sub 2) budgets, including the importance of terms in each of the respective budgets, and compare these estimates to those obtained by other methods; and diagnose the distributions of moisture and precipitable water over the North Atlantic Ocean using routine analyses and satellite microwave data. To accomplish these objectives, we used grant funds to purchase several data sets, including the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) observations of station precipitation, ECMWF WCRP/TOGA archive two analyses for January 1985 - December 1990, ECMWF WMO analyses for January 1980 - December 1987, and OLR data for July 1974 - December 1991. We already had some SSM/I data and GLA analyses from a previous grant. In addition, to improve our computing power, we also used grant funds to purchase an IBM PS/2 with accessories, a NEC laser jet printer, and a microcomputer system for word processing. This report is organized as follows. Our research team is listed first. Section two contains a summary of our significant accomplishments; however, a detailed discussion of research results is not included since this information can be found in the accompanying reprints and preprints. Section three offers some concluding remarks, and a complete bibliographic summary is given in Section four.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, S. S.
2014-12-01
This presentation describes a suite of global precipitation products reconstructed by a multivariate regression method using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) expansion. The sampling errors of the reconstruction are estimated for each product datum entry. The maximum temporal coverage is 1850-present and the spatial coverage is quasi-global (75S, 75N). The temporal resolution ranges from 5-day, monthly, to seasonal and annual. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data from 1979-2008 are used to calculate the EOFs. The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) gridded data are used to calculate the regression coefficients for reconstructions. The sampling errors of the reconstruction are analyzed in detail for different EOF modes. Our reconstructed 1900-2011 time series of the global average annual precipitation shows a 0.024 (mm/day)/100a trend, which is very close to the trend derived from the mean of 25 models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Our reconstruction examples of 1983 El Niño precipitation and 1917 La Niña precipitation (Figure 1) demonstrate that the El Niño and La Niña precipitation patterns are well reflected in the first two EOFs. The validation of our reconstruction results with GPCP makes it possible to use the reconstruction as the benchmark data for climate models. This will help the climate modeling community to improve model precipitation mechanisms and reduce the systematic difference between observed global precipitation, which hovers at around 2.7 mm/day for reconstructions and GPCP, and model precipitations, which have a range of 2.6-3.3 mm/day for CMIP5. Our precipitation products are publically available online, including digital data, precipitation animations, computer codes, readme files, and the user manual. This work is a joint effort between San Diego State University (Sam Shen, Nancy Tafolla, Barbara Sperberg, and Melanie Thorn) and University of Maryland (Phil
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Xiaowen; Janiga, Matthew A.; Wang, Shuguang; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Rowe, Angela; Xu, Weixin; Liu, Chuntao; Matsui, Toshihisa; Zhang, Chidong
2018-04-01
Evolution of precipitation structures are simulated and compared with radar observations for the November Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event during the DYNAmics of the MJO (DYNAMO) field campaign. Three ground-based, ship-borne, and spaceborne precipitation radars and three cloud-resolving models (CRMs) driven by observed large-scale forcing are used to study precipitation structures at different locations over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Convective strength is represented by 0-dBZ echo-top heights, and convective organization by contiguous 17-dBZ areas. The multi-radar and multi-model framework allows for more stringent model validations. The emphasis is on testing models' ability to simulate subtle differences observed at different radar sites when the MJO event passed through. The results show that CRMs forced by site-specific large-scale forcing can reproduce not only common features in cloud populations but also subtle variations observed by different radars. The comparisons also revealed common deficiencies in CRM simulations where they underestimate radar echo-top heights for the strongest convection within large, organized precipitation features. Cross validations with multiple radars and models also enable quantitative comparisons in CRM sensitivity studies using different large-scale forcing, microphysical schemes and parameters, resolutions, and domain sizes. In terms of radar echo-top height temporal variations, many model sensitivity tests have better correlations than radar/model comparisons, indicating robustness in model performance on this aspect. It is further shown that well-validated model simulations could be used to constrain uncertainties in observed echo-top heights when the low-resolution surveillance scanning strategy is used.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Z.; Mace, G. G.; Posselt, D. J.
2017-12-01
As we begin to contemplate the next generation atmospheric observing systems, it will be critically important that we are able to make informed decisions regarding the trade space between scientific capability and the need to keep complexity and cost within definable limits. To explore this trade space as it pertains to understanding key cloud and precipitation processes, we are developing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm suite that allows us to arbitrarily define the specifications of candidate observing systems and then explore how the uncertainties in key retrieved geophysical parameters respond to that observing system. MCMC algorithms produce a more complete posterior solution space, and allow for an objective examination of information contained in measurements. In our initial implementation, MCMC experiments are performed to retrieve vertical profiles of cloud and precipitation properties from a spectrum of active and passive measurements collected by aircraft during the ACE Radiation Definition Experiments (RADEX). Focusing on shallow cumulus clouds observed during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology EXperiment (IPHEX), observing systems in this study we consider W and Ka-band radar reflectivity, path-integrated attenuation at those frequencies, 31 and 94 GHz brightness temperatures as well as visible and near-infrared reflectance. By varying the sensitivity and uncertainty of these measurements, we quantify the capacity of various combinations of observations to characterize the physical properties of clouds and precipitation.
Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying
2016-01-01
This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season. PMID:27861616
Do Atmospheric Rivers explain the extreme precipitation events over East Asia?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dairaku, K.; Nayak, S.
2017-12-01
Extreme precipitation events are now of serious concern due to their damaging societal impacts over last few decades. Thus, climate indices are widely used to identify and quantify variability and changes in particular aspects of the climate system, especially when considering extremes. In our study, we focus on few climate indices of annual precipitation extremes for the period 1979-2013 over East Asia to discuss some straightforward information and interpretation of certain aspects of extreme precipitation events that occur over the region. To do so, we first discuss different percentiles of precipitation and maximum length of wet spell with different thresholds from a regional climate model (NRAMS) simulation at 20km. Results indicate that the 99 percentile of precipitation events correspond to about 80mm/d over few regions of East Asia during 1979-2013 and maximum length of wet spell with minimum 20mm precipitation corresponds to about 10days (Figure 1). We then linked the extreme precipitation events with the intense moisture transport events associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). The ARs are identified by computing the vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) between 1000hpa and 300hpa with IVT ≥ 250 kg/m/s and 2000 km minimum long. With this threshold and condition (set by previous research), our results indicate that some extreme propitiation events are associated with some ARs over East Asia, while some events are not associated with any ARs. Similarly, some ARs are associated with some extreme precipitation events, while some ARs are not associated with any events. Since the ARs are sensitive to the threshold and condition depending on region, so we will analyze the characteristics of ARs (frequency, duration, and annual variability) with different thresholds and discuss their relationship with extreme precipitation events over East Asia.
13C 18O clumping in speleothems: Observations from natural caves and precipitation experiments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daëron, M.; Guo, W.; Eiler, J.; Genty, D.; Blamart, D.; Boch, R.; Drysdale, R.; Maire, R.; Wainer, K.; Zanchetta, G.
2011-06-01
The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is an important proxy of continental paleoenvironments, because of its sensitivity to variations in cave temperature and drip water δ 18O. Interpreting speleothem δ 18O records in terms of absolute paleotemperatures and δ 18O values of paleo-precipitation requires quantitative separation of the effects of these two parameters, and correcting for possible kinetic isotope fractionation associated with precipitation of calcite out of thermodynamic equilibrium. Carbonate clumped-isotope thermometry, based on measurements of Δ47 (a geochemical variable reflecting the statistical overabundance of 13C 18O bonds in CO 2 evolved from phosphoric acid digestion of carbonate minerals), potentially provides a method for absolute speleothem paleotemperature reconstructions independent of drip water composition. Application of this new technique to karst records is currently limited by the scarcity of published clumped-isotope studies of modern speleothems. The only modern stalagmite reported so far in the literature yielded a lower Δ47 value than expected for equilibrium precipitation, possibly due to kinetic isotope fractionation. Here we report Δ47 values measured in natural speleothems from various cave settings, in carbonate produced by cave precipitation experiments, and in synthetic stalagmite analogs precipitated in controlled laboratory conditions designed to mimic natural cave processes. All samples yield lower Δ47 and heavier δ 18O values than predicted by experimental calibrations of thermodynamic equilibrium in inorganic calcite. The amplitudes of these isotopic disequilibria vary between samples, but there is clear correlation between the amount of Δ47 disequilibrium and that of δ 18O. Even pool carbonates believed to offer excellent conditions for equilibrium precipitation of calcite display out-of-equilibrium δ 18O and Δ47 values, probably inherited from prior degassing within the cave system. In addition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guillod, B. P.; Orlowsky, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.
2013-12-01
The feedback between soil moisture and precipitation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed feedbacks assume a control of soil moisture on the flux partitioning (i.e. the Evaporative Fraction, EF) at the land surface, which then influences precipitation. Our study (Guillod et al., in prep) addresses the poorly understood link between EF and precipitation by investigating the impact of before-noon EF on the frequency of afternoon precipitation over the contiguous US. We analyze remote sensing data products (EF from GLEAM, Miralles et al. 2011; radar precipitation from NEXRAD), FLUXNET station data, and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). While most datasets agree on the existence of a region of positive relationship between between EF and precipitation in the Eastern US (e.g. Findell et al. 2011), observation-based estimates indicate a stronger relationship in the Western US, which is not found in NARR. Investigating these differences, we find that much of these relationships can be explained by precipitation persistence alone, with ambiguous results on the additional role of EF. Regional analyses reveal contrasting mechanisms over different regions which fit well with the known distribution of vegetation cover and soil moisture-climate regimes. Over the Eastern US, our analyses suggest that the EF-precipitation feedback, if present, takes place on a short day-to-day time scale, where interception evaporation drives the relationship rather than soil moisture, due to the high forest cover and the wet regime. Over the Western US, the impact of EF on convection triggering is additionally linked to soil moisture variations, owing to the soil moisture-limited climate regime. References: Findell, K. L., et al., 2011: Probability of afternoon precipitation in eastern United States and Mexico enhanced by high evaporation. Nature Geosci., 4 (7), 434-439, doi:10.1038/ngeo1174, URL http
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salamalikis, V.; Argiriou, A. A.; Dotsika, E.
2016-03-01
In this paper the periodic patterns of the isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18O) for 22 stations located around Central Europe are investigated through sinusoidal models and wavelet analysis over a 23 years period (1980/01-2002/12). The seasonal distribution of δ18O follows the temporal variability of air temperature providing seasonal amplitudes ranging from 0.94‰ to 4.47‰; the monthly isotopic maximum is observed in July. The isotopic amplitude reflects the geographical dependencies of the isotopic composition of precipitation providing higher values when moving inland. In order to describe the dominant oscillation modes included in δ18O time series, the Morlet Continuous Wavelet Transform is evaluated. The main periodicity is represented at 12-months (annual periodicity) where the wavelet power is mainly concentrated. Stations (i.e. Cuxhaven, Trier, etc.) with limited seasonal isotopic effect provide sparse wavelet power areas at the annual periodicity mode explaining the fact that precipitation has a complex isotopic fingerprint that cannot be examined solely by the seasonality effect. Since temperature is the main contributor of the isotopic variability in mid-latitudes, the isotope-temperature effect is also investigated. The isotope-temperature slope ranges from 0.11‰/°C to 0.47‰/°C with steeper values observed at the southernmost stations of the study area. Bivariate wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the correlation and the slope of the δ18O - temperature relationship over the time-frequency plane. High coherencies are detected at the annual periodicity mode. The time-frequency slope is calculated at the annual periodicity mode ranging from 0.45‰/°C to 0.83‰/°C with higher values at stations that show a more distinguishable seasonal isotopic behavior. Generally the slope fluctuates around a mean value but in certain cases (sites with low seasonal effect) abrupt slope changes are derived and the slope becomes
Assessing the performance of satellite-based precipitation products over the Mediterranean region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xaver, Angelika; Dorigo, Wouter; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca
2017-04-01
Detailed knowledge about the spatial and temporal patterns and quantities of precipitation is of high importance. This applies especially in the Mediterranean region, where water demand for agricultural, industrial and touristic needs is growing and climate projections foresee a decrease of precipitation amounts and an increase in variability. In this region, ground-based rain gauges are available only limited in number, particularly in northern Africa and the Middle East and lack to capture the high spatio-temporal character of precipitation over large areas. This has motivated the development of a large number of remote sensing products for monitoring rainfall. Satellite-based precipitation products are based on various observation principles and retrieval approaches, i.e. from thermal infra-red and microwaves. Although, many individual validation studies on the performance of these precipitation datasets exist, they mostly examine only one or a few of these rainfall products at the same time and are not targeted at the Mediterranean basin as a whole. Here, we present an extensive comparative study of seven different satellite-based precipitation products, namely CMORPH 30-minutes, CMORPH 3-hourly, GPCP, PERSIANN, SM2Rain CCI, TRMM TMPA 3B42, and TRMM TMPA 3B42RT, focusing on the whole Mediterranean region and on individual Mediterranean catchments. The time frame of investigation is restricted by the common availability of all precipitation products and covers the period 2000-2013. We assess the skill of the satellite products against gridded gauge-based data provided by GPCC and E-OBS. Apart from common characteristics like biases and temporal correlations we evaluate several sophisticated dataset properties that are of particular interest for Mediterranean hydrology, including the capability of the remotely sensed products to capture extreme events and trends. A clear seasonal dependency of the correlation results can be observed for the whole Mediterranean
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Donghai; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Knapp, Alan K.; Wilcox, Kevin; Bahn, Michael; Smith, Melinda D.; Vicca, Sara; Fatichi, Simone; Zscheischler, Jakob; He, Yue; Li, Xiangyi; Ito, Akihiko; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna; Ukkola, Anna; Paschalis, Athanasios; Poulter, Benjamin; Peng, Changhui; Ricciuto, Daniel; Reinthaler, David; Chen, Guangsheng; Tian, Hanqin; Genet, Hélène; Mao, Jiafu; Ingrisch, Johannes; Nabel, Julia E. S. M.; Pongratz, Julia; Boysen, Lena R.; Kautz, Markus; Schmitt, Michael; Meir, Patrick; Zhu, Qiuan; Hasibeder, Roland; Sippel, Sebastian; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Sitch, Stephen; Shi, Xiaoying; Wang, Yingping; Luo, Yiqi; Liu, Yongwen; Piao, Shilong
2018-06-01
Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon-water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. In this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wetterhall, F.; He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Freer, J.; Wilson, M.; McGregor, G.
2009-04-01
Local flooding events are often triggered by high-intensity rain-fall events, and it is important that these can be correctly modelled by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) if the results are to be used in climate impact assessment. In this study, daily precipitation from 16 RCMs was compared with observations over a meso-scale catchment in the Midlands Region of England. The RCM data was provided from the European research project ENSEMBLES and the precipitation data from the UK MetOffice. The RCMs were all driven by reanalysis data from the ERA40 dataset over the time period 1961-2000. The ENSEMBLES data is on the spatial scale of 25 x 25 km and it was disaggregated onto a 5 x 5 km grid over the catchment and compared with interpolated observational data with the same resolution. The mean precipitation was generally underestimated by the ENSEMBLES data, and the maximum and persistence of high intensity rainfall was even more underestimated. The inter-annual variability was not fully captured by the RCMs, and there was a systematic underestimation of precipitation during the autumn months. The spatial pattern in the modelled precipitation data was too smooth in comparison with the observed data, especially in the high altitudes in the western part of the catchment where the high precipitation usually occurs. The RCM outputs cannot reproduce the current high intensity precipitation events that are needed to sufficiently model extreme flood events. The results point out the discrepancy between climate model output and the high intensity precipitation input needs for hydrological impact modelling.
Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iliopoulou, Theano; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Markonis, Yannis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2018-01-01
Long-range dependence (LRD), the so-called Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour, is considered to be an intrinsic characteristic of most natural processes. This behaviour manifests itself by the prevalence of slowly decaying autocorrelation function and questions the Markov assumption, often habitually employed in time series analysis. Herein, we investigate the dependence structure of annual rainfall using a large set, comprising more than a thousand stations worldwide of length 100 years or more, as well as a smaller number of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering the last 12,000 years. Our findings suggest weak long-term persistence for instrumental data (average H = 0.59), which becomes stronger with scale, i.e. in the paleoclimatic reconstructions (average H = 0.75).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drumond, A.; Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; Ambrizzi, T.; Trigo, R.
2009-04-01
The socio-economical problems related to the severe droughts observed over Brazilian "Nordeste" and Sahel are well known nowadays. Several studies have showed that the precipitation regimes over these regions are influenced by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) variability, which can be related with the climatic variations observed in the South and North Tropical Atlantic basins. However, a climatological detailed assessment of the annual cycle of the oceanic moisture contribution to both these regions is still needed in order to get a better understanding of their precipitation regimes and variability. To answer this question, a climatological seasonal analysis of the moisture supply from the South Atlantic to the precipitation in the "Nordeste" and Sahel was performed using a new Lagrangian method of diagnosis which identifies the humidity contributions to the moisture budget over a region. The applied methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along forward-trajectories for the following 10 days. In order to take into account distinct regional contributions we have divided the South Atlantic basin in several latitudinal bands (with a 5° width), and all air-masses residing over each region were tracked forward using the available 5-year dataset (2000-2004). For the Sahel, the preliminary results suggest that the oceanic band northwards 10 degrees south acts as a moisture source for the precipitation along the year and its contribution reaches the maximum during the austral winter, probably related to the ITCZ annual migration over the region. On the other hand, the precipitation over "Nordeste" can be better related to air masses emanating from the oceanic bands between 10 and 20 degrees south. However the response over the region is very heterogeneous spatially and temporally probably due to the high variability of the local climate characteristics. In order to clarify dynamically the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boluwade, Alaba; Zhao, K.-Y.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Rasmussen, P.
2018-01-01
This study presents a three-step validation technique to compare the performance of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) product relative to actual observation as a hydrologic forcing in regional watershed simulation. CaPA is an interpolated (6 h or 24 h accumulation) reanalysis precipitation product in near real time covering all of North America. The analysis procedure involves point-to-point (P2P) and map-to-map (M2M) comparisons, followed by proxy validation using an operational version of the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model from 2002 to 2005 in the Lake Winnipeg Basin (LWB), Canada. The P2P technique using a Bayesian change point analysis shows that CaPA corresponds with actual observations (Canadian daily climate data, CDCD), on both an annual and seasonal basis. CaPA has the same spatial pattern, dependency and autocorrelation properties as CDCD pixel by pixel (M2M). When used as hydrologic forcing in WATFLOOD™, results indicate that CaPA is a reliable product for water resource modeling and predictions, but that the quality of CaPA data varies annually and seasonally, as does the quality of observations. CaPA proved most beneficial as a hydrologic forcing during winter seasons where observation quality is the lowest. Reanalysis products, such as CaPA, can be a reliable option in sparse network areas, and is beneficial for regional governments when the cost of new weather stations is prohibitive.
Christopher Daly; Melissa E. Slater; Joshua A. Roberti; Stephanie H. Laseter; Lloyd W. Swift
2017-01-01
A 69-station, densely spaced rain gauge network was maintained over the period 1951â1958 in the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, located in the southern Appalachians in western North Carolina, USA. This unique dataset was used to develop the first digital seasonal and annual precipitation maps for the Coweeta basin, using elevation regression functions and...
Data Rescue for precipitation station network in Slovak Republic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fasko, Pavel; Bochníček, Oliver; Švec, Marek; Paľušová, Zuzana; Markovič, Ladislav
2016-04-01
Transparency of archive catalogues presents very important task for the data saving. It helps to the further activities e.g. digitalization and homogenization. For the time being visualization of time series continuation in precipitation stations (approximately 1250 stations) is under way in Slovak Republic since the beginning of observation (meteorological stations gradually began to operate during the second half of the 19th century in Slovakia). Visualization is joined with the activities like verification and accessibility of the data mentioned in the archive catalogue, station localization according to the historical annual books, conversion of coordinates into x-JTSK, y-JTSK and hydrological catchment assignment. Clustering of precipitation stations at the specific hydrological catchment in the map and visualization of the data duration (line graph) will lead to the effective assignment of corresponding precipitation stations for the prolongation of time series. This process should be followed by the process of turn or trend detection and homogenization. The risks and problems at verification of records from archive catalogues, their digitalization, repairs and the way of visualization will be seen in poster. During the searching process of the historical and often short time series, we realized the importance of mainly those stations, located in the middle and higher altitudes. They might be used as replacement for up to now quoted fictive points used at the construction of precipitation maps. Supplementing and enhancing the time series of individual stations will enable to follow changes in precipitation totals during the certain period as well as area totals for individual catchments in various time periods appreciated mainly by hydrologists and agro-climatologists.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Westbrook, J. A.; Guilderson, T.; Colinvaux, P. A.; D'Arrigo, R.
2004-12-01
Instrumental records of environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation are necessary to understand climate patterns and variability. In general, such observations from the tropics do not exist prior to the late 19th century, and existing records contain large spatial and temporal gaps and are sparsely distributed. An important source of annual temperature and precipitation proxy-data comes from the regular annual growth rings of wood formed by trees. Tree growth rings occur in response to periodic seasonal changes in the environment. Although expansive and diverse in number and ecology, a vast majority of tropical trees do not produce distinct annual growth rings. Because of this, tropical dendrochronology and paleoclimate reconstructions have lagged behind their temperate and higher latitude cousins. Distinct secondary growth rings were investigated in a single individual of the tropical hardwood legume Hymenaea courbaril felled within the City of David, Republic of Panama. Rings that maintained circuitry were considered annual and were sampled for 14C. Radiocarbon values from the secondary growth rings from this specimen were compared with annual reference radiocarbon values from wood and air in North America, New Zealand and Germany. This comparison demonstrated that the secondary growth rings formed by H. courbaril were determined to be annual in nature in this one stem disk specimen. To confirm the consistency of the annual nature of the secondary growth rings in H. courbaril, nine (9) additional specimens were recovered from the small hamlet of San Carlos y Algarobbo in western Panama between the town of David and the cordillera approximately ~30km from the site of the first tree sample. Of the nine specimens, four were chosen for ring counts and isotope analyses. "Annual" rings were counted and samples corresponding to the equivalent time of the bomb-14C peak were sampled. In addition a small subset of years within one tree specimen were sub-annually
Influence of Precipitation Regime on Microbial Decomposition Patterns in Semi-Arid Ecosystems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feris, K. P.; Jilek, C.; Huber, D. P.; Reinhardt, K.; deGraaff, M.; Lohse, K.; Germino, M.
2011-12-01
In water-limited semi-arid sagebrush steppe ecosystems predicted changes in climate may manifest as a shift from historically winter/snow-dominated precipitation regimes to one dominated by spring rains. In these ecosystems soil microorganisms play a vital role in linking the effects of water availability and plant productivity to biogeochemical cycling. Patterns of soil microbial catalyzed organic matter decomposition patters (i.e. patterns of extracellular enzyme activity (EEA)) are thought to depend upon the quantity and quality of soil organic matter (SOM), pH, and mean annual precipitation (Sinsabaugh, 2008), and less on the timing and magnitude of precipitation. However, sagebrush-steppe plant communities respond strongly to changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation, and preliminary findings by our group suggest that corresponding changes in SOM quantity, quality, N-cycle dynamics, and soil structure are occurring. Therefore, we hypothesized: 1) Shifts in the timing and magnitude of precipitation would indirectly affect soil microbial decomposition patterns via responses in the plant community structure; and 2) Changes in precipitation patterns can directly affect soil microbial community structure and function, in effect uncoupling the interaction between plant community structure and soil community structure. We tested our hypotheses by determining the influence of experimentally manipulated timing and magnitude of precipitation on soil microbial EEA using standard flourometric assays in soils sampled under plant canopies and plant interspaces. We assessed this response in a mature (18 + years) ecohydrologic field experiment in eastern Idaho that annually imitates three possible post climatic-shift precipitation regimes (Ambient (AMB): no additional precipitation, ~200mm annually; Summer (SUMM): 200mm provisioned at 50mm bi-weekly starting in June; and Fall/Spring (F/S): 200mm provisioned over 1-2 weeks in October or April) (n=3). Within plant
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.
2017-05-01
Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N-45°N, 10°E-65°E and Region-B: 20°N-55°N, 205°E-255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983-2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V.; Bieniek, Peter A.; Pelto, Mauri; Aschwanden, Andy
2018-03-01
Assessing and modeling precipitation in mountainous areas remains a major challenge in glacier mass balance modeling. Observations are typically scarce and reanalysis data and similar climate products are too coarse to accurately capture orographic effects. Here we use the linear theory of orographic precipitation model (LT model) to downscale winter precipitation from a regional climate model over the Juneau Icefield, one of the largest ice masses in North America (>4000 km2), for the period 1979-2013. The LT model is physically-based yet computationally efficient, combining airflow dynamics and simple cloud microphysics. The resulting 1 km resolution precipitation fields show substantially reduced precipitation on the northeastern portion of the icefield compared to the southwestern side, a pattern that is not well captured in the coarse resolution (20 km) WRF data. Net snow accumulation derived from the LT model precipitation agrees well with point observations across the icefield. To investigate the robustness of the LT model results, we perform a series of sensitivity experiments varying hydrometeor fall speeds, the horizontal resolution of the underlying grid, and the source of the meteorological forcing data. The resulting normalized spatial precipitation pattern is similar for all sensitivity experiments, but local precipitation amounts vary strongly, with greatest sensitivity to variations in snow fall speed. Results indicate that the LT model has great potential to provide improved spatial patterns of winter precipitation for glacier mass balance modeling purposes in complex terrain, but ground observations are necessary to constrain model parameters to match total amounts.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Huffman, George; Nelkin, Eric
1999-01-01
Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McConnell, E.; Osterberg, E. C.; Winski, D.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Campbell, S. W.; Ferris, D. G.; Birkel, S. D.
2016-12-01
Precipitation in Alaska is sensitive to the Aleutian Low (ALow) pressure system and North Pacific sea-surface temperatures, as shown by the increase in Alaskan sub-Arctic precipitation associated with the 1976 shift to the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Precipitation in the high-elevation accumulation zones of Alaskan alpine glaciers provides critical mass input for glacial mass balance, which has been declining in recent decades from warmer summer temperatures despite the winter precipitation increase. Twin >1500-year ice cores collected from the summit plateau of Mount Hunter in Denali National Park, Alaska show a remarkable doubling of annual snow accumulation over the past 150 years, with most of the change observed in the winter. Other alpine ice cores collected from the Alaska and Saint Elias ranges show similar snowfall increases over recent decades. However, although Alaskan weather stations at low elevation recorded a 7-38% increase in winter precipitation across the 1976 PDO transition, this increase is not as substantial as that recorded in the Mt. Hunter ice core. Weather stations at high-elevation alpine sites are comparatively rare, and reasons for the enhanced precipitation trends at high elevation in Alaska remain unclear. Here we use Automatic Weather Station data from the Mt. Hunter drill site (3,900 m a.s.l) and from nearby Denali climber's Base Camp (2,195 m a.s.l.) to evaluate the relationships between alpine and lowland Alaskan precipitation on annual, seasonal, and storm-event temporal scales from 2008-2016. Both stations are located on snow and have sonic snow depth sounders to record daily precipitation. We focus on the role of variable ALow and North Pacific High strength in influencing Alaskan precipitation elevational gradients, particularly in association with the extreme 2015-2016 El Niño event, the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño event, and the 2010-2011 moderate La Niña event. Our analysis will improve our
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Janapati, Jayalakshmi; seela, Balaji Kumar; Reddy M., Venkatrami; Reddy K., Krishna; Lin, Pay-Liam; Rao T., Narayana; Liu, Chian-Yi
2017-06-01
Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics in before landfall (BLF) and after landfall (ALF) of three tropical cyclones (JAL, THANE, and NILAM) induced precipitations are investigated by using a laser-based (PARticleSIze and VELocity - PARSIVEL) disdrometer at two different locations [Kadapa (14.47°N, 78.82°E) and Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E)] in semi-arid region of southern India. In both BLF and ALF precipitations of these three cyclones, convective precipitations have higher mass weighted mean diameter (Dm) and lower normalized intercept parameter (log10Nw) values than stratiform precipitations. The radar reflectivity (Z) and rain rate (R) relations (Z=A*Rb) showed distinct variations in BLF and ALF precipitations of three cyclones. BLF precipitation of JAL cyclone has a higher Dm than ALF precipitation. Whereas, for THANE and NILAM cyclones ALF precipitations have higher Dm than BLF. The Dm values of three cyclones (both in BLF and ALF) are smaller than the Dm values of the other (Atlantic and Pacific) oceanic cyclones. Interaction of different regions (eyewall, inner rainbands, and outer rainbands) of cyclones with the environment and underlying surface led to RSD variations between BLF and ALF precipitations through different microphysical (collision-coalescence, breakup, evaporation, and riming) processes. The immediate significance of the present work is that (i) it contributes to our understanding of cyclone RSD in BLF and ALF precipitations, and (ii) it provides the useful information for quantitative estimation of rainfall from Doppler weather radar observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Villarreal, Samuel; Vargas, Rodrigo; Yepez, Enrico A.; Acosta, Jose S.; Castro, Angel; Escoto-Rodriguez, Martin; Lopez, Eulogio; Martínez-Osuna, Juan; Rodriguez, Julio C.; Smith, Stephen V.; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Watts, Christopher J.
2016-02-01
Water-limited ecosystems occupy nearly 30% of the Earth, but arguably, the controls on their ecosystem processes remain largely uncertain. We analyzed six site years of eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration (ET) from 2008 to 2010 at two water-limited shrublands: one dominated by winter precipitation (WP site) and another dominated by summer precipitation (SP site), but with similar solar radiation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. We determined how physical forcing factors (i.e., net radiation (Rn), soil water content (SWC), air temperature (Ta), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD)) influence annual and seasonal variability of ET. Mean annual ET at SP site was 455 ± 91 mm yr-1, was mainly influenced by SWC during the dry season, by Rn during the wet season, and was highly sensitive to changes in annual precipitation (P). Mean annual ET at WP site was 363 ± 52 mm yr-1, had less interannual variability, but multiple variables (i.e., SWC, Ta, VPD, and Rn) were needed to explain ET among years and seasons. Wavelet coherence analysis showed that ET at SP site has a consistent temporal coherency with Ta and P, but this was not the case for ET at WP site. Our results support the paradigm that SWC is the main control of ET in water-limited ecosystems when radiation and temperature are not the limiting factors. In contrast, when P and SWC are decoupled from available energy (i.e., radiation and temperature), then ET is controlled by an interaction of multiple variables. Our results bring attention to the need for better understanding how climate and soil dynamics influence ET across these globally distributed ecosystems.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roberto, N.; Baldini, L.; Facheris, L.; Chandrasekar, V.
2014-07-01
Several satellite missions employing X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) have been activated to provide high-resolution images of normalized radar cross-sections (NRCS) on land and ocean for numerous applications. Rainfall and wind affect the sea surface roughness and consequently the NRCS from the combined effects of corrugation due to impinging raindrops and surface wind. X-band frequencies are sensitive to precipitation: intense convective cells result in irregularly bright and dark patches in SAR images, masking changes in surface NRCS. Several works have modeled SAR images of intense precipitation over land; less adequately investigated is the precipitation effect over the sea surface. These images are analyzed in this study by modeling both the scattering and attenuation of radiation by hydrometeors in the rain cells and the NRCS surface changes using weather radar precipitation estimates as input. The reconstruction of X-band SAR returns in precipitating clouds is obtained by the joint utilization of volume reflectivity and attenuation, the latter estimated by coupling ground-based radar measurements and an electromagnetic model to predict the sea surface NRCS. Radar signatures of rain cells were investigated using X-band SAR images collected from the COSMO-SkyMed constellation of the Italian Space Agency. Two case studies were analyzed. The first occurred over the sea off the coast of Louisiana (USA) in summer 2010 with COSMO-SkyMed (CSK®) ScanSar mode monitoring of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Simultaneously, the NEXRAD S-band Doppler radar (KLIX) located in New Orleans was scanning the same portion of ocean. The second case study occurred in Liguria (Italy) on November 4, 2011, during an extraordinary flood event. The same events were observed by the Bric della Croce C-band dual polarization radar located close to Turin (Italy). The polarimetric capability of the ground radars utilized allows discrimination of the composition of the precipitation
Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.
2012-04-01
In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.
Observation of Long Ionospheric Recoveries from Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation Events
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohammadpour Salut, M.; Cohen, M.
2015-12-01
Lightning strokes induces lower ionospheric nighttime disturbances which can be detected through Very Low Frequency (VLF) remote sensing via at least two means: (1) direct heating and ionization, known as an Early event, and (2) triggered precipitation of energetic electrons from the radiation belts, known as Lightning-induced Electron Precipitation (LEP). For each, the ionospheric recover time is typically a few minutes or less. A small class of Early events have been identified as having unusually long ionospheric recoveries (10s of minutes), with the underlying mechanism still in question. Our study shows for the first time that some LEP events also demonstrate unusually long recovery. The VLF events were detected by visual inspection of the recorded data in both the North-South and East-West magnetic fields. Data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are used to determine the location and peak current of the lightning responsible for each lightning-associated VLF perturbation. LEP or Early VLF events are determined by measuring the time delay between the causative lightning discharges and the onset of all lightning-associated perturbations. LEP events typically possess an onset delay greater than ~ 200 msec following the causative lightning discharges, while the onset of Early VLF events is time-aligned (<20 msec) with the lightning return stroke. Nonducted LEP events are distinguished from ducted events based on the location of the causative lightning relative to the precipitation region. From 15 March to 20 April and 15 October to 15 November 2011, a total of 385 LEP events observed at Indiana, Montana, Colorado and Oklahoma VLF sites, on the NAA, NLK and NML transmitter signals. 46 of these events exhibited a long recovery. It has been found that the occurrence rate of ducted long recovery LEP events is higher than nonducted. Of the 46 long recovery LEP events, 33 events were induced by ducted whistlers, and 13 events were associated with
Spatial distribution of the daily precipitation concentration index in Southern Russia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vyshkvarkova, Elena; Voskresenskaya, Elena; Martin-Vide, Javier
2018-05-01
The territory of Southern Russia presents a great diversity of climates and complex orography that lead to a very different precipitation distribution. Annual precipitation amounts differ between 222 mm in the coast of the Caspian Sea and > 2000 mm in the highest parts of the Caucasus Mountains. In order to investigate the statistical structure of daily precipitation across the study region the daily precipitation Concentration Index (CI) was used. In present paper, the CI was calculated for 42 meteorological stations during the 1970-2010 period. The analysis of precipitation concentration identified that the distribution of daily precipitation is more regular over the west, north and south regions compared to the east (the Caspian Sea coast and the Caspian Depression). The Crimean peninsula is characterized by low CI values in the north and high values in the eastern part.
Assessment of Global Annual Atmospheric Energy Balance from Satellite Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lin, Bing; Stackhouse, Paul; Minnis, Patrick; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Hu, Yongxiang; Sun, Wenbo; Fan, Tai-Fang (Alice); Hinkelman, Laura
2008-01-01
Global atmospheric energy balance is one of the fundamental processes for the earth's climate system. This study uses currently available satellite data sets of radiative energy at the top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface and latent and sensible heat over oceans for the year 2000 to assess the global annual energy budget. Over land, surface radiation data are used to constrain assimilated results and to force the radiation, turbulent heat, and heat storage into balance due to a lack of observation-based turbulent heat flux estimations. Global annual means of the TOA net radiation obtained from both direct measurements and calculations are close to zero. The net radiative energy fluxes into the surface and the surface latent heat transported into the atmosphere are about 113 and 86 Watts per square meter, respectively. The estimated atmospheric and surface heat imbalances are about -8 9 Watts per square meter, values that are within the uncertainties of surface radiation and sea surface turbulent flux estimates and likely systematic biases in the analyzed observations. The potential significant additional absorption of solar radiation within the atmosphere suggested by previous studies does not appear to be required to balance the energy budget the spurious heat imbalances in the current data are much smaller (about half) than those obtained previously and debated at about a decade ago. Progress in surface radiation and oceanic turbulent heat flux estimations from satellite measurements significantly reduces the bias errors in the observed global energy budgets of the climate system.
Nonstationarity in timing of extreme precipitation across China and impact of tropical cyclones
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun
2017-02-01
This study examines the seasonality and nonstationarity in the timing of extreme precipitation obtained by annual maximum (AM) sampling and peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling techniques using circular statistics. Daily precipitation data from 728 stations with record length of at least 55 years across China were analyzed. In general, the average seasonality is subject mainly to summer season (June-July - August), which is potentially related to East Asian monsoon and Indian monsoon activities. The strength of precipitation seasonality varied across China with the highest strength being in northeast, north, and central-north China; whereas the weakest seasonality was found in southeast China. There are three seasonality types: circular uniform, reflective symmetric, and asymmetric. However, the circular uniform seasonality of extreme precipitation was not detected at stations across China. The asymmetric distribution was observed mainly in southeast China, and the reflective distribution of precipitation extremes was also identified the other regions besides the above-mentioned regions. Furthermore, a strong signal of nonstationarity in the seasonality was detected at half of the weather stations considered in the study, exhibiting a significant shift in the timing of extreme precipitation, and also significant trends in the average and strength of seasonality. Seasonal vapor flux and related delivery pathways and also tropical cyclones (TCs) are most probably the driving factors for the shifts or changes in the seasonality of extreme precipitation across China. Timing of precipitation extremes is closely related to seasonal shifts of floods and droughts and which means much for management of agricultural irrigation and water resources management. This study sheds new light on nonstationarity in timing of precipitation extremes which differs from existing ones which focused on precipitation extremes from perspective of magnitude and intensity.
Importance of Dry-Season Precipitation to the Water Resources of Monteverde, Costa Rica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guswa, A. J.; Rhodes, A. L.
2005-12-01
Monteverde, Costa Rica harbors montane forests that exemplify the delicate balances among climate, hydrology, habitat, and development. Most of the annual precipitation to this region arrives during the wet season, but the importance of orographic precipitation during the dry and transitional seasons should not be underestimated. Changes in regional land-cover and global climate may lead to reduced precipitation and cloud cover and a subsequent decline in endemic species, and a boom in ecotourism has put stress on water resources. A recent attempt to withdraw water from a local stream led to a standoff between conservationists and business developers, and there is a clear need for hydrologic data and understanding in support of policy. Through signals observed in the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and streamflow, we seek to understand how precipitation from the drier seasons propagates through the hydrologic cycle. In precipitation, δ18O and δ2H are heaviest during the dry and transitional seasons and light during the rainy season, consistent with the condensation mechanisms and degree of rainout typical of these periods. The signal in d-excess indicates a contribution of recycled water to precipitation in Monteverde from late in the rainy season through the dry season. Attenuated versions of these seasonal signals propagate through to the stream samples and provide a means of determining the importance of dry-season precipitation to water resources for the region. Results from six catchments on the leeward slope indicate that the Brillante Gap in the continental divide exerts strong control on the input of orographic precipitation to the region. Disparities in the temporal signals of precipitation and streamflow isotopes indicate non-linear behavior in the hydrologic processes that move water through these catchments.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian
2016-12-01
Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.
Precipitation Records-HDSC/OWP
resources and services. Greatest observed point precipitation values for the world and the USA US Comparison of the greatest point precipitation values for the world and the USA. World records (map, table) USA
Risk assessment of precipitation extremes in northern Xinjiang, China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Jun; Pei, Ying; Zhang, Yanwei; Ge, Quansheng
2018-05-01
This study was conducted using daily precipitation records gathered at 37 meteorological stations in northern Xinjiang, China, from 1961 to 2010. We used the extreme value theory model, generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), statistical distribution function to fit outputs of precipitation extremes with different return periods to estimate risks of precipitation extremes and diagnose aridity-humidity environmental variation and corresponding spatial patterns in northern Xinjiang. Spatiotemporal patterns of daily maximum precipitation showed that aridity-humidity conditions of northern Xinjiang could be well represented by the return periods of the precipitation data. Indices of daily maximum precipitation were effective in the prediction of floods in the study area. By analyzing future projections of daily maximum precipitation (2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 100 years), we conclude that the flood risk will gradually increase in northern Xinjiang. GEV extreme value modeling yielded the best results, proving to be extremely valuable. Through example analysis for extreme precipitation models, the GEV statistical model was superior in terms of favorable analog extreme precipitation. The GPD model calculation results reflect annual precipitation. For most of the estimated sites' 2 and 5-year T for precipitation levels, GPD results were slightly greater than GEV results. The study found that extreme precipitation reaching a certain limit value level will cause a flood disaster. Therefore, predicting future extreme precipitation may aid warnings of flood disaster. A suitable policy concerning effective water resource management is thus urgently required.
Comparison of Globally Complete Versions of GPCP and CMAP Monthly Precipitation Analyses
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George
1998-01-01
In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.
Combining Radar and Daily Precipitation Data to Estimate Meaningful Sub-daily Precipitation Extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pegram, G. G. S.; Bardossy, A.
2016-12-01
Short duration extreme rainfalls are important for design. The purpose of this presentation is not to improve the day by day estimation of precipitation, but to obtain reasonable statistics for the subdaily extremes at gauge locations. We are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauge locations. We do not employ the common procedure of using time series of control station to determine the missing data values in a target. We are interested in individual rare events, not sequences. The idea is to use radar to disaggregate daily totals to sub-daily amounts. In South Arica, an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at Bethlehem from 1998 to 2003, whose scan at 1.5 km above ground [CAPPI] overlapped a dense (10 km spacing) set of 45 pluviometers recording in the same 6-year period. Using this valuable set of data, we are only interested in rare extremes, therefore small to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected, leaving 12 days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprised about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals in subdaily intervals down to 15 minutes in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall at each of 37 selected radar pixels [1 km square in plan] which contained one of the 45 pluviometers not masked out by the radar foot-print. The pluviometer data were aggregated to daily totals, to act as if they were daily read gauges; their only other task was to help in the cross-validation exercise. The extrema were obtained as quantiles by ordering the 12 daily maxima of each interval per year. The unusual and novel goal was not to obtain the reproduction of the precipitation matching in space and time, but to obtain frequency distributions of the gauge and radar extremes, by matching their ranks, which we found to be stable and meaningful in cross-validation tests. We provide and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gaines, E. E.; Imhof, W. L.; Voss, H. D.; Reagan, J. B.
1983-07-01
During the solar eclipse of 26 February 1979, the P78-1 satellite passed near Red Lake, Ontario, at an altitude of about 600 km. On two consecutive orbits spanning the time of total eclipse, energetic electrons were measured with two silicon solid state detector spectrometers having excellent energy and angular resolution. Significant fluxes of precipitating electrons were observed near the path of totality. Comparisons of flux intensities and energy spectra with those measured from a Nike Orion and two Nike Tomahawk rockets launched near Red Lake before and during total eclipse give good agreement and indicate that the electron precipitation was relatively uniform for more than an hour and over a broad geographical area.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loftus, Adrian; Tsay, Si-Chee; Nguyen, Xuan Anh
2016-04-01
droplet size and number concentration, but also the spectral width of the cloud droplet size distribution, the 3M scheme is well suited to simulate aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions within a three-dimensional regional cloud model. Moreover, the additional variability predicted on the hydrometeor distributions provides beneficial input for forward models to link the simulated microphysical processes with observations as well as to assess both ground-based and satellite retrieval methods. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the 7 South East Asian Studies / Biomass-burning Aerosols and Stratocumulus Environment: Lifecycles and Interactions Experiment (7-SEAS/BASELInE) operations during the spring of 2013. Preliminary analyses of pre-monsoon Sc system lifecycles observed during the first-ever deployment of a ground-based cloud radar to northern Vietnam will be also be presented. Initial results from GCE model simulations of these Sc using double-moment and the new 3M bulk microphysics schemes under various aerosol loadings will be used to showcase the 3M scheme as well as provide insight into how the impact of aerosols on cloud and precipitation processes in stratocumulus over land may manifest themselves in simulated remote-sensing signals. Applications and future work involving ongoing 7-SEAS campaigns aimed at improving our understanding of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions of will also be discussed.
Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Verdin, Kristine L.
2004-05-01
This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takbiri, Z.; Ebtehaj, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Kirstetter, P.
2017-12-01
Improving satellite retrieval of precipitation requires increased understanding of its passive microwave signature over different land surfaces. Passive microwave signals over snow-covered surfaces are notoriously difficult to interpret because they record both emission from the land below and absorption/scattering from the liquid/ice crystals. Using data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite, we demonstrate that the microwave brightness temperatures of rain and snowfall shifts from a scattering to an emission regime from summer to winter, due to expansion of the less emissive snow cover underneath. We present evidence that the combination of low- (10-19 GHz) and high-frequency (89-166 GHz) channels provides the maximum amount of information for snowfall detection. The study also examines a prognostic nearest neighbor matching method for the detection of precipitation and its phase from passive microwave observations using GPM data. The nearest neighbor uses the weighted Euclidean distance metric to search through an a priori database that is populated with coincident GPM radiometer and radar data as well as ancillary snow cover fraction. The results demonstrate prognostic capabilities of the proposed method in detection of terrestrial snowfall. At the global scale, the average probability of hit and false alarm reaches to 0.80 and remains below 0.10, respectively. Surprisingly, the results show that the snow cover may help to better detect precipitation as the detection rate of terrestrial precipitation is increased from 0.75 (no snow cover) to 0.84 (snow-covered surfaces). For solid precipitation, this increased rate of detection is larger than its liquid counterpart by almost 8%. The main reasons are found to be related to the multi-frequency capabilities of the nearest neighbor matching that can properly isolate the atmospheric signal from the background emission and the fact that the precipitation can exhibit an emission-like (warmer
Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V.
2007-01-01
In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.
Using NDVI to measure precipitation in semi-arid landscapes
Birtwhistle, Amy N.; Laituri, Melinda; Bledsoe, Brian; Friedman, Jonathan M.
2016-01-01
Measuring precipitation in semi-arid landscapes is important for understanding the processes related to rainfall and run-off; however, measuring precipitation accurately can often be challenging especially within remote regions where precipitation instruments are scarce. Typically, rain-gauges are sparsely distributed and research comparing rain-gauge and RADAR precipitation estimates reveal that RADAR data are often misleading, especially for monsoon season convective storms. This study investigates an alternative way to map the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation inputs along ephemeral stream channels using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. NDVI values from 26 years of pre- and post-monsoon season Landsat imagery were derived across Yuma Proving Ground (YPG), a region covering 3,367 km2 of semiarid landscapes in southwestern Arizona, USA. The change in NDVI from a pre-to post-monsoon season image along ephemeral stream channels explained 73% of the variance in annual monsoonal precipitation totals from a nearby rain-gauge. In addition, large seasonal changes in NDVI along channels were useful in determining when and where flow events have occurred.
Global Analysis of Empirical Relationships Between Annual Climate and Seasonality of NDVI
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Potter, C. S.; Brooks, V.
1997-01-01
This paper describes the use of satellite data to calibrate a new climate-vegetation greenness relationship for global change studies. We examined statistical relationships between annual climate indexes (temperature, precipitation, and surface radiation) and seasonal attributes If the AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for the mid-1980's in order to refine our understanding of intra-annual patterns and global abiotic controls on natural vegetation dynamics. Multiple linear regression results using global 1o gridded data sets suggest that three climate indexes: degree days (growing/chilling), annual precipitation total, and an annual moisture index together can account to 70-80 percent of the geographic variation in the NDVI seasonal extremes (maximum and minimum values) for the calibration year 1984. Inclusion of the same annual climate index values from the previous year explains no substantial additional portion of the global scale variation in NDVI seasonal extremes. The monthly timing of NDVI extremes is closely associated with seasonal patterns in maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, with lag times of 1 to 2 months. We separated well-drained areas from lo grid cells mapped as greater than 25 percent inundated coverage for estimation of both the magnitude and timing of seasonal NDVI maximum values. Predicted monthly NDVI, derived from our climate-based regression equations and Fourier smoothing algorithms, shows good agreement with observed NDVI for several different years at a series of ecosystem test locations from around the globe. Regions in which NDVI seasonal extremes are not accurately predicted are mainly high latitude zones, mixed and disturbed vegetation types, and other remote locations where climate station data are sparse.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kozyra, J. U.; Brandt, P. C.; Cattell, C. A.; Clilverd, M.; de Zeeuw, D.; Evans, D. S.; Fang, X.; Frey, H. U.; Kavanagh, A. J.; Liemohn, M. W.; Lu, G.; Mende, S. B.; Paxton, L. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Rodger, C. J.; Soraas, F.
2010-12-01
Energetic ions and electrons that precipitate into the upper atmosphere from sources throughout geospace carry the influences of space weather disturbances deeper into the atmosphere, possibly contributing to climate variability. The three-dimensional atmospheric effects of these precipitating particles are a function of the energy and species of the particles, lifetimes of reactive species generated during collisions in the atmosphere, the nature of the driving space weather disturbance, and the large-scale transport properties (meteorology) of the atmosphere in the region of impact. Unraveling the features of system-level coupling between solar magnetic variability, space weather and stratospheric dynamics requires a global view of the precipitation, along with its temporal and spatial variation. However, observations of particle precipitation at the system level are sparse and incomplete requiring they be combined with other observations and with large-scale models to provide the global context that is needed to accelerate progress. We compare satellite and ground-based observations of geospace conditions and energetic precipitation (at ring current, radiation belt and auroral energies) to a simulation of the geospace environment during 21-22 January 2005 by the BATS-R-US MHD model coupled with a self-consistent ring current solution. The aim is to explore the extent to which regions of particle precipitation track global magnetic field distortions and ways in which global models enhance our understanding of linkages between solar wind drivers and evolution of energetic particle precipitation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Aoqi; Fu, Yunfei; Chen, Yilun; Liu, Guosheng; Zhang, Xiangdong
2018-04-01
The distribution and influence of precipitation over the southern Himalayas have been investigated on regional and global scales. However, previous studies have been limited by the insufficient emphasis on the precipitation triggers or the lack of droplet size distribution (DSD) data. Here, precipitating systems were identified using Global Precipitation Mission dual-frequency radar data, and then categorized into five classes according to surface flow from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast Interim data. The surface flow is introduced to indicate the precipitation triggers, which is validated in this study. Using case and statistical analysis, we show that the precipitating systems with different surface flow had different precipitation characteristics, including spatio-temporal features, reflectivity profile, DSD, and rainfall intensity. Furthermore, the results show that the source of the surface flow influences the intensity and DSD of precipitation. The terrain exerts different impacts on the precipitating systems of five categories, leading to various distributions of precipitation characteristics over the southern Himalayas. Our results suggest that the introduction of surface flow and DSD for precipitating systems provides insight into the complex precipitation of the southern Himalayas. The different characteristics of precipitating systems may be caused by the surface flow. Therefore, future study on the orographic precipitations should take account the impact of the surface flow and its relevant dynamic mechanism.
Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use
Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.
2016-01-19
Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent
Multi-site precipitation downscaling using a stochastic weather generator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Jie; Chen, Hua; Guo, Shenglian
2018-03-01
Statistical downscaling is an efficient way to solve the spatiotemporal mismatch between climate model outputs and the data requirements of hydrological models. However, the most commonly-used downscaling method only produces climate change scenarios for a specific site or watershed average, which is unable to drive distributed hydrological models to study the spatial variability of climate change impacts. By coupling a single-site downscaling method and a multi-site weather generator, this study proposes a multi-site downscaling approach for hydrological climate change impact studies. Multi-site downscaling is done in two stages. The first stage involves spatially downscaling climate model-simulated monthly precipitation from grid scale to a specific site using a quantile mapping method, and the second stage involves the temporal disaggregating of monthly precipitation to daily values by adjusting the parameters of a multi-site weather generator. The inter-station correlation is specifically considered using a distribution-free approach along with an iterative algorithm. The performance of the downscaling approach is illustrated using a 10-station watershed as an example. The precipitation time series derived from the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset is used as the climate model simulation. The precipitation time series of each station is divided into 30 odd years for calibration and 29 even years for validation. Several metrics, including the frequencies of wet and dry spells and statistics of the daily, monthly and annual precipitation are used as criteria to evaluate the multi-site downscaling approach. The results show that the frequencies of wet and dry spells are well reproduced for all stations. In addition, the multi-site downscaling approach performs well with respect to reproducing precipitation statistics, especially at monthly and annual timescales. The remaining biases mainly result from the non-stationarity of
Drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lambeth-Beagles, R. S.; Troch, P. A.
2010-12-01
The Colorado River is the main water supply to the southwest region. As demand reaches the limit of supply in the southwest it becomes increasingly important to understand the dynamics of streamflow in the Colorado River and in particular the tributaries to the lower Colorado River. Climate change may pose an additional threat to the already-scarce water supply in the southwest. Due to the narrowing margin for error, water managers are keen on extending their ability to predict streamflow volumes on a mid-range to decadal scale. Before a predictive streamflow model can be developed, an understanding of the physical drivers of annual to decadal streamflow variability in the lower Colorado River Basin is needed. This research addresses this need by applying multiple statistical methods to identify trends, patterns and relationships present in streamflow, precipitation and temperature over the past century in four contributing watersheds to the lower Colorado River. The four watersheds selected were the Paria, Little Colorado, Virgin/Muddy, and Bill Williams. Time series data over a common period from 1906-2007 for streamflow, precipitation and temperature were used for the initial analysis. Through statistical analysis the following questions were addressed: 1) are there observable trends and patterns in these variables during the past century and 2) if there are trends or patterns, how are they related to each other? The Mann-Kendall test was used to identify trends in the three variables. Assumptions regarding autocorrelation and persistence in the data were taken into consideration. Kendall’s tau-b test was used to establish association between any found trends in the data. Initial results suggest there are two primary processes occurring. First, statistical analysis reveals significant upward trends in temperatures and downward trends in streamflow. However, there appears to be no trend in precipitation data. These trends in streamflow and temperature speak to
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Reichle, Rolf H.; Liu, Qing; Bindlish, Rajat; Cosh, Michael H.; Crow, Wade T.; deJeu, Richard; DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Huffman, George J.; Jackson, Thomas J.
2011-01-01
The contributions of precipitation and soil moisture observations to the skill of soil moisture estimates from a land data assimilation system are assessed. Relative to baseline estimates from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), the study investigates soil moisture skill derived from (i) model forcing corrections based on large-scale, gauge- and satellite-based precipitation observations and (ii) assimilation of surface soil moisture retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Soil moisture skill is measured against in situ observations in the continental United States at 44 single-profile sites within the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) for which skillful AMSR-E retrievals are available and at four CalVal watersheds with high-quality distributed sensor networks that measure soil moisture at the scale of land model and satellite estimates. The average skill (in terms of the anomaly time series correlation coefficient R) of AMSR-E retrievals is R=0.39 versus SCAN and R=0.53 versus CalVal measurements. The skill of MERRA surface and root-zone soil moisture is R=0.42 and R=0.46, respectively, versus SCAN measurements, and MERRA surface moisture skill is R=0.56 versus CalVal measurements. Adding information from either precipitation observations or soil moisture retrievals increases surface soil moisture skill levels by IDDeltaR=0.06-0.08, and root zone soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.05-0.07. Adding information from both sources increases surface soil moisture skill levels by DeltaR=0.13, and root zone soil moisture skill by DeltaR=0.11, demonstrating that precipitation corrections and assimilation of satellite soil moisture retrievals contribute similar and largely independent amounts of information.
Annual modulation of non-volcanic tremor in northern Cascadia
Pollitz, Fred; Wech, Aaron G.; Kao, Honn; Burgmann, Roland
2013-01-01
Two catalogs of episodic tremor events in northern Cascadia, one from 2006 to 2012 and the other from 1997 to 2011, reveal two systematic patterns of tremor occurrence in southern Vancouver Island: (1) most individual events tend to occur in the third quarter of the year; (2) the number of events in prolonged episodes (i.e., episodic tremor and slip events), which generally propagate to Vancouver Island from elsewhere along the Cascadia subduction zone, is inversely correlated with the amount of precipitation that occurred in the preceding 2 months. We rationalize these patterns as the product of hydrologic loading of the crust of southern Vancouver Island and the surrounding continental region, superimposed with annual variations from oceanic tidal loading. Loading of the Vancouver Island crust in the winter (when the land surface receives ample precipitation) and unloading in the summer tends to inhibit and enhance downdip shear stress, respectively. Quantitatively, for an annually variable surface load, the predicted stress perturbation depends on mantle viscoelastic rheology. A mechanical model of downdip shear stress on the transition zone beneath Vancouver Island—driven predominantly by the annual hydrologic cycle—is consistent with the 1997–2012 tremor observations, with peak-to-peak downdip shear stress of about 0.4 kPa. This seasonal dependence of tremor occurrence appears to be restricted to southern Vancouver Island because of its unique situation as an elongated narrow-width land mass surrounded by ocean, which permits seasonal perturbations in shear stress at depth.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
He, S.; Goodkin, N.; Jackisch, D.; Ong, M. R.
2017-12-01
Studying how the tropical convection affects stable isotopes in precipitation can help us understand the evolution of the precipitation isotopes over time and improve the interpretation of paleoclimate records in the tropical region. We have been continuously monitoring δ-values of precipitation during rain events in Singapore for the past three years (2014-2017) using a diffusion sampler-cavity ring-down spectrometer (DS-CRDS) system. This period of time spans the most recent El Niño and La Niña, and thus affords us the opportunity to use our ultra-high temporal resolutsion data to examine the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on the precipitation isotopes during convection and the intra-annual variability in the region. δ-values of precipitation could change significantly during a single event, and mainly exhibits "V" (or "U" ) shape or "W" shape patterns. The mesoscale subsidence and rain re-evaporation are two processes that largely shape the isotopes of precipitation during events. Time series of the initial, highest and lowest δ-values of individual events, and absolute change in δ-values during these events show clear evolution over time. Events with low δ-values occurred less frequently in 2015 than the other years. Likewise, the frequency of events with larger magnitude change in δ-values and low initial values are also lower in 2015. The events with low averaged δ-values usually have very low initial δ-values, and are closely associated with organized regional convection, indicating that the convective activities in the upwind area can significantly influence the δ-values of precipitation. All these observations suggest lower intensity and frequency of regional organized convection in 2015. The ENSO event in 2015 was likely responsible for these changes. During an ENSO event, convection over the central and eastern Pacific is strengthened while that of the western Pacific and Southeast Asia is supressed, resulting in a weakened
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Colgan, William Terence; Rajaram, Harihar; Anderson, Robert S.; Steffen, Konrad; Zwally, H. Jay; Phillips, Thomas; Abdalati, Waleed
2012-01-01
Ice velocities observed in 2005/06 at three GPS stations along the Sermeq Avannarleq flowline, West Greenland, are used to characterize an observed annual velocity cycle. We attempt to reproduce this annual ice velocity cycle using a 1-D ice-flow model with longitudinal stresses coupled to a 1-D hydrology model that governs an empirical basal sliding rule. Seasonal basal sliding velocity is parameterized as a perturbation of prescribed winter sliding velocity that is proportional to the rate of change of glacier water storage. The coupled model reproduces the broad features of the annual basal sliding cycle observed along this flowline, namely a summer speed-up event followed by a fall slowdown event. We also evaluate the hypothesis that the observed annual velocity cycle is due to the annual calving cycle at the terminus. We demonstrate that the ice acceleration due to a catastrophic calving event takes an order of magnitude longer to reach CU/ETH ('Swiss') Camp (46km upstream of the terminus) than is observed. The seasonal acceleration observed at Swiss Camp is therefore unlikely to be the result of velocity perturbations propagated upstream via longitudinal coupling. Instead we interpret this velocity cycle to reflect the local history of glacier water balance.
Evapotranspiration of annual and perennial biofuel crops in a variable climate
Abraha, Michael; Chen, Jiquan; Chu, Housen; ...
2015-02-06
Eddy covariance measurements were made in seven fields in the Midwest USA over 4 years (including the 2012 drought year) to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) of newly established rain-fed cellulosic and grain biofuel crops. Four of the converted fields had been managed as grasslands under the USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for 22 years, and three had been in conventional agriculture (AGR) soybean/corn rotation prior to conversion. In 2009, all sites were planted to no-till soybean except one CRP grassland that was left unchanged as a reference site; in 2010, three of the former CRP sites and the three former AGRmore » sites were planted to annual (corn) and perennial (switchgrass and mixed-prairie) grasslands. The annual ET over the 4 years ranged from 45% to 77% (mean = 60%) of the annual precipitation (848–1063 mm; November–October), with the unconverted CRP grassland having the highest ET (622–706 mm). In the fields converted to annual and perennial crops, the annual ET ranged between 480 and 639 mm despite the large variations in growing-season precipitation and in soil water contents, which had strong effects on regional crop yields. Results suggest that in this humid temperate climate, which represents the US Corn Belt, water use by annual and perennial crops is not greatly different across years with highly variable precipitation and soil water availability. Thus, large-scale conversion of row crops to perennial biofuel cropping systems may not strongly alter terrestrial water balances.« less
Evapotranspiration of annual and perennial biofuel crops in a variable climate
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Abraha, Michael; Chen, Jiquan; Chu, Housen
Eddy covariance measurements were made in seven fields in the Midwest USA over 4 years (including the 2012 drought year) to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) of newly established rain-fed cellulosic and grain biofuel crops. Four of the converted fields had been managed as grasslands under the USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) for 22 years, and three had been in conventional agriculture (AGR) soybean/corn rotation prior to conversion. In 2009, all sites were planted to no-till soybean except one CRP grassland that was left unchanged as a reference site; in 2010, three of the former CRP sites and the three former AGRmore » sites were planted to annual (corn) and perennial (switchgrass and mixed-prairie) grasslands. The annual ET over the 4 years ranged from 45% to 77% (mean = 60%) of the annual precipitation (848–1063 mm; November–October), with the unconverted CRP grassland having the highest ET (622–706 mm). In the fields converted to annual and perennial crops, the annual ET ranged between 480 and 639 mm despite the large variations in growing-season precipitation and in soil water contents, which had strong effects on regional crop yields. Results suggest that in this humid temperate climate, which represents the US Corn Belt, water use by annual and perennial crops is not greatly different across years with highly variable precipitation and soil water availability. Thus, large-scale conversion of row crops to perennial biofuel cropping systems may not strongly alter terrestrial water balances.« less
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; deSilva, Arlindo M.
2000-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a "1+1"D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the "1+1"D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+lD scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSM/I rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.; daSilva, Arlindo M.
1999-01-01
Global reanalyses currently contain significant errors in the primary fields of the hydrological cycle such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and the related cloud fields, especially in the tropics. The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of tropical rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) observations from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments to improve short-range forecast and reanalyses. We describe a 1+1D procedure for assimilating 6-hr averaged rainfall and TPW in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The algorithm is based on a 6-hr time integration of a column version of the GEOS DAS, hence the 1+1D designation. The scheme minimizes the least-square differences between the observed TPW and rain rates and those produced by the column model over the 6-hr analysis window. This 1+1D scheme, in its generalization to four dimensions, is related to the standard 4D variational assimilation but uses analysis increments instead of the initial condition as the control variable. Results show that assimilating the TMI and SSW rainfall and TPW observations improves not only the precipitation and moisture fields but also key climate parameters such as clouds, the radiation, the upper-tropospheric moisture, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. In particular, assimilating these data reduce the state-dependent systematic errors in the assimilated products. The improved analysis also provides better initial conditions for short-range forecasts, but the improvements in forecast are less than improvements in the time-averaged assimilation fields, indicating that using these data types is effective in correcting biases and other errors of the forecast model in data assimilation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pelle, A.; Allen, M.; Fu, J. S.
2013-12-01
With rising population and increasing urban density, it is of pivotal importance for urban planners to plan for increasing extreme precipitation events. Climate models indicate that an increase in global mean temperature will lead to increased frequency and intensity of storms of a variety of types. Analysis of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) has demonstrated that global climate models severely underestimate precipitation, however. Preliminary results from dynamical downscaling indicate that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is expected to experience the greatest increase of precipitation due to an increase in annual extreme events in the US. New York City, New York and Chicago, Illinois are anticipated to have similarly large increases in annual extreme precipitation events. In order to produce more accurate results, we downscale Philadelphia, Chicago, and New York City using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). We analyze historical precipitation data and WRF output utilizing a Log Pearson Type III (LP3) distribution for frequency of extreme precipitation events. This study aims to determine the likelihood of extreme precipitation in future years and its effect on the of cost of stormwater management for these three cities.
Roden, John S; Ehleringer, James R
2007-04-01
The carbon and oxygen isotopic composition of tree-ring cellulose was examined in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) trees in the western USA to study seasonal patterns of precipitation inputs. Two sites (California and Oregon) had minimal summer rainfall inputs, whereas a third site (Arizona) received as much as 70% of its annual precipitation during the summer months (North American monsoon). For the Arizona site, both the delta(18)O and delta(13)C values of latewood cellulose increased as the fraction of annual precipitation occurring in the summer (July through September) increased. There were no trends in latewood cellulose delta(18)O with the absolute amount of summer rain at any site. The delta(13)C composition of latewood cellulose declined with increasing total water year precipitation for all sites. Years with below-average total precipitation tended to have a higher proportion of their annual water inputs during the summer months. Relative humidity was negatively correlated with latewood cellulose delta(13)C at all sites. Trees at the Arizona site produced latewood cellulose that was significantly more enriched in (18)O compared with trees at the Oregon or California site, implying a greater reliance on an (18)O-enriched water source. Thus, tree-ring records of cellulose delta(18)O and delta(13)C may provide useful proxy information about seasonal precipitation inputs and the variability and intensity of the North American monsoon.
Rainfall interception by annual grass and chaparral . . . losses compared
Edward S. Corbett; Robert P. Crouse
1968-01-01
Loss of precipitation due to interception by annual grass and grass litter was measured during three rainy seasons on the San Dimas Experimental Forest, in southern California. Interception loss from annual grass averaged 7.9 percent; that from mature chaparral cover, 12.8 percent. If chaparral stands were converted to grass, an estimated 1.3 inches of gross...
Creating a global sub-daily precipitation dataset
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley
2017-04-01
Extremes of precipitation can cause flooding and droughts which can lead to substantial damages to infrastructure and ecosystems and can result in loss of life. It is still uncertain how hydrological extremes will change with global warming as we do not fully understand the processes that cause extreme precipitation under current climate variability. The INTENSE project is using a novel and fully-integrated data-modelling approach to provide a step-change in our understanding of the nature and drivers of global precipitation extremes and change on societally relevant timescales, leading to improved high-resolution climate model representation of extreme rainfall processes. The INTENSE project is in conjunction with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)'s Grand Challenge on 'Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes' and the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project (GEWEX) Science questions. The first step towards achieving this is to construct a new global sub-daily precipitation dataset. Data collection is ongoing and already covers North America, Europe, Asia and Australasia. Comprehensive, open source quality control software is being developed to set a new standard for verifying sub-daily precipitation data and a set of global hydroclimatic indices will be produced based upon stakeholder recommendations. This will provide a unique global data resource on sub-daily precipitation whose derived indices, e.g. monthly/annual maxima, will be freely available to the wider scientific community.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, A.; Chen, S.; Fan, S.; Min, C.
2017-12-01
Precipitation is one of the basic elements of regional and global climate change. Not only does the precipitation have a great impact on the earth's hydrosphere, but also plays a crucial role in the global energy balance. S-band ground-based dual-polarization radar has the excellent performance of identifying the different phase states of precipitation, which can dramatically improve the accuracy of hail identification and quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE). However, the ground-based radar cannot measure the precipitation in mountains, sparsely populated plateau, desert and ocean because of the ground-based radar void. The Unites States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) have launched the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) for almost three years. GPM is equipped with a GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and a Dual-frequency (Ku- and Ka-band) Precipitation Radar (DPR) that covers the globe between 65°S and 65°N. The main parameters and the detection method of DPR are different from those of ground-based radars, thus, the DPR's reliability and capability need to be investigated and evaluated by the ground-based radar. This study compares precipitation derived from the ground-based radar measurement to that derived from the DPR's observations. The ground-based radar is a S-band dual-polarization radar deployed near an airport in the west of Zhuhai city. The ground-based quantitative precipitation estimates are with a high resolution of 1km×1km×6min. It shows that this radar covers the whole Pearl River Delta of China, including Hong Kong and Macao. In order to quantify the DPR precipitation quantification capabilities relative to the S-band radar, statistical metrics used in this study are as follows: the difference (Dif) between DPR and the S-band radar observation, root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC). Additionally, Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio
Lee, Hyo-Jung; Kang, Jeong-Eon; Kim, Cheol-Hee
2015-07-01
Forty-year (1971-2010) observations of cloud cover and types have been analyzed, and implications on the effects of aerosol-cloud feedback were explored. Cloud cover and types have been observed over Korea on the basis of visible (human-eye) attributes without any change in official observing instructions. Visibility has been used as an ongoing proxy measure of aerosol concentrations, and observed meteorological variables such as sunshine duration and precipitation have been employed to analyze aerosol causes and implications for urban and regional climate. The analysis revealed persistent decade-long patterns in Korea: steadily reduced visibility (-0.37 km/yr), consistently decreasing sunshine duration (-0.06 %/hr), and declining occurrence of light precipitation. Spatial distributions of sunshine duration and visibility exhibited more localized variations in the early period (1971-1990), and tended to be more uniform throughout Korea over more recent years (1991-2010), implying the recent regional-scale impact of cloud change over northeast Asia. Cloud analysis results showed that the five most common types were stratocumulus (Sc), cirrus (Ci), altostratus (As), stratus (St), and nimbostratus (Ns), with occurrences of 33%, 17%, 17%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. Occurrence of rarely precipitating or nonprecipitating low-level Sc clouds showed an increasing (+0.34%/yr), but no (or only minor) effects of aerosols on heavy precipitation such as cumulus cloud types were found. Cloud cover in the range of 6/10 to 8/10 units has increased by 31.5±6.5%, and occurrences of both cloud-free (~2/10 units) and overcast (~8/10 units) conditions have decreased. Aerosol-cloud-precipitations interaction is highly nonlinear due to feedback mechanisms. One reason for our poor understanding of the aerosol-cloud feedback study is the variety of cloud types with their complicated responses to variations of the aerosol. Our study on the response of precipitation-cloud to long
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Roman, J.
2015-12-01
The IPCC 5th Assessment found that the predicted warming of 1oC would increase the risk of extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. Weather extremes, like floods, have shown the vulnerability and susceptibility society has to these extreme weather events, through impacts such as disruption of food production, water supply, health, and damage of infrastructure. This paper examines a new way of near-real time forecasting of precipitation. A 10-year statistical climatological relationship was derived between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and precipitation by using the NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder daily gridded PWV product and the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission daily gridded precipitation total. Forecasting precipitation estimates in real time is dire for flood monitoring and disaster management. Near real time PWV observations from AIRS on Aqua are available through the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Service Center. In addition, PWV observations are available through direct broadcast from the NASA Suomi-NPP ATMS/CrIS instrument, the operational follow on to AIRS. The derived climatological relationship can be applied to create precipitation estimates in near real time by utilizing the direct broadcasting capabilities currently available in the CONUS region. The application of this relationship will be characterized through case-studies by using near real-time NASA AIRS Science Team v6 PWV products and ground-based SuomiNet GPS to estimate the current precipitation potential; the max amount of precipitation that can occur based on the moisture availability. Furthermore, the potential contribution of using the direct broadcasting of the NUCAPS ATMS/CrIS PWV products will be demonstrated. The analysis will highlight the advantages of applying this relationship in near-real time for flash flood monitoring and risk management. Relevance to the NWS River Forecast Centers will be discussed.
Local short-duration precipitation extremes in Sweden: observations, forecasts and projections
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olsson, Jonas; Berg, Peter; Simonsson, Lennart
2015-04-01
Local short-duration precipitation extremes (LSPEs) are a key driver of hydrological hazards, notably in steep catchments with thin soils and in urban environments. The triggered floodings, landslides, etc., have large consequences for society in terms of both economy and health. Accurate estimations of LSPEs on both climatological time-scales (past, present, future) and in real-time is thus of great importance for improved hydrological predictions as well as design of constructions and infrastructure affected by hydrological fluxes. Analysis of LSPEs is, however, associated with various limitations and uncertainties. These are to a large degree associated with the small-scale nature of the meteorological processes behind LSPEs and the associated requirements on observation sensors as well as model descriptions. Some examples of causes for the limitations involved are given in the following. - Observations: High-resolution data sets available for LSPE analyses are often limited to either relatively long series from one or a few stations or relatively short series from larger station networks. Radar data have excellent resolutions in both time and space but the estimated local precipitation intensity is still highly uncertain. New and promising techniques (e.g. microwave links) are still in their infancy. - Weather forecasts (short-range): Although forecasts with the required spatial resolution for potential generation of LSPEs (around 2-4 km) are becoming operationally available, the actual forecast precision of LSPEs is largely unknown. Forecasted LSPEs may be displaced in time or, more critically, in space which strongly affects the possibility to assess hydrological risk. - Climate projections: The spatial resolution of the current RCM generation (around 25 km) is not sufficient for proper description of LSPEs. Statistical post-processing (i.e. downscaling) is required which adds substantial uncertainty to the final result. Ensemble generation of sufficiently
An Ultra-high Resolution Synthetic Precipitation Data for Ungauged Sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Hong-Joong; Choi, Kyung-Min; Oh, Jai-Ho
2018-05-01
Despite the enormous damage caused by record heavy rainfall, the amount of precipitation in areas without observation points cannot be known precisely. One way to overcome these difficulties is to estimate meteorological data at ungauged sites. In this study, we have used observation data over Seoul city to calculate high-resolution (250-meter resolution) synthetic precipitation over a 10-year (2005-2014) period. Furthermore, three cases are analyzed by evaluating the rainfall intensity and performing statistical analysis over the 10-year period. In the case where the typhoon "Meari" passed to the west coast during 28-30 June 2011, the Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.93 for seven validation points, which implies that the temporal correlation between the observed precipitation and synthetic precipitation was very good. It can be confirmed that the time series of observation and synthetic precipitation in the period almost completely matches the observed rainfall. On June 28-29, 2011, the estimation of 10 to 30 mm h-1 of continuous strong precipitation was correct. In addition, it is shown that the synthetic precipitation closely follows the observed precipitation for all three cases. Statistical analysis of 10 years of data reveals a very high correlation coefficient between synthetic precipitation and observed rainfall (0.86). Thus, synthetic precipitation data show good agreement with the observations. Therefore, the 250-m resolution synthetic precipitation amount calculated in this study is useful as basic data in weather applications, such as urban flood detection.
Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim
2014-08-01
Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.
Precipitation, landsliding, and erosion across the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Smith, Stephen G.; Wegmann, Karl W.
2018-01-01
In the Olympic Mountains of Washington State, landsliding is the primary surface process by which bedrock and hillslope regolith are delivered to river networks. However, the relative importance of large earthquakes versus high magnitude precipitation events to the total volume of landslide material transported to valley bottoms remains unknown in part due to the absence of large historical earthquakes. To test the hypothesis that erosion is linked to precipitation, approximately 1000 landslides were mapped from Google Earth imagery between 1990 and 2015 along a 15 km-wide × 85 km-long (1250 km2) swath across the range. The volume of hillslope material moved by each slide was calculated using previously published area-volume scaling relationships, and the spatial distribution of landslide volume was compared to mean annual precipitation data acquired from the PRISM climate group for the period 1981-2010. Statistical analysis reveals a significant correlation (r = 0.55; p < 0.001) between total landslide volume and mean annual precipitation, with 98% of landslide volume occurring along the windward, high-precipitation side of the range during the 25-year interval. Normalized to area, this volume yields a basin-wide erosion rate of 0.28 ± 0.11 mm yr- 1, which is similar to previous time-variable estimates of erosion throughout the Olympic Mountains, including those from river sediment yield, cosmogenic 10Be, fluvial terrace incision, and thermochronometry. The lack of large historic earthquakes makes it difficult to assess the relative contributions of precipitation and seismic shaking to total erosion, but our results suggest that climate, and more specifically a sharp precipitation gradient, plays an important role in controlling erosion and landscape evolution over both short and long timescales across the Olympic Mountains.
ENSO Precipitation Variations as Seen by GPM and TRMM Radar and Passive Microwave Observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adler, R. F.; Wang, J. J.
2017-12-01
Tropical precipitation variations related to ENSO are the largest-scale such variations both spatially and in magnitude and are also the main driver of surface temperature-surface rainfall relationships on the inter-annual scale. GPM (and TRMM before it) provide a unique capability to examine these relations with both the passive and active microwave approaches. Documenting the phase and magnitudes of these relationships are important to understand these large-scale processes and to validate climate models. However, as past research by the authors have shown, the results of these relations have been different for passive vs. radar retrievals. In this study we re-examine these relations with the new GPM Version 5 products, focusing on the 2015-2016 El Nino event. The recent El Nino peaked in Dec. 2015 through Feb. 2016 with the usual patterns of precipitation anomalies across the Tropics as evident in both the GPM GMI and the Near Surface (NS) DPR (single frequency) retrievals. Integrating both the rainfall anomalies and the SST anomalies over the entire tropical ocean area (25N-25S) and comparing how they vary as a function of time on a monthly scale during the GPM era (2014-2017), the radar-based results show contrasting results to those from the GMI-based (and GPCP) results. The passive microwave data (GMI and GPCP) indicates a slope of 17%/C for the precipitation variations, while the radar NS indicates about half that ( 8%/C). This NS slope is somewhat less than calculated before with GPM's V4 data, but is larger than obtained with TRMM PR data ( 0%/C) for an earlier period during the TRMM era. Very similar results as to the DPR NS calculations are also obtained for rainfall at 2km and 4km altitude and for the Combined (DPR + GMI) product. However, at 6km altitude, although the reflectivity and rainfall magnitudes are much less than at lower altitudes, the slope of the rainfall/SST relation is 17%/C, the same as calculated with the passive microwave data. The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garcia Leal, Julio A.; Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Khodayar, Samiro; Estrela, Teodoro; Fidalgo, Arancha; Gabaldo, Onofre; Kuligowski, Robert; Herrera, Eddy
Surface runoff is defined as the amount of water that originates from precipitation, does not infiltrates due to soil saturation and therefore circulates over the surface. A good estimation of runoff is useful for the design of draining systems, structures for flood control and soil utilisation. For runoff estimation there exist different methods such as (i) rational method, (ii) isochrone method, (iii) triangular hydrograph, (iv) non-dimensional SCS hydrograph, (v) Temez hydrograph, (vi) kinematic wave model, represented by the dynamics and kinematics equations for a uniforme precipitation regime, and (vii) SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model. This work presents a way of estimating precipitation runoff through the SCS-CN model, using SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) mission soil moisture observations and rain-gauge measurements, as well as satellite precipitation estimations. The area of application is the Jucar River Basin Authority area where one of the objectives is to develop the SCS-CN model in a spatial way. The results were compared to simulations performed with the 7-km COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling, COSMO model in CLimate Mode) model. The use of SMOS soil moisture as input to the COSMO-CLM model will certainly improve model simulations.
Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried
2016-04-01
How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lussana, Cristian; Saloranta, Tuomo; Skaugen, Thomas; Magnusson, Jan; Tveito, Ole Einar; Andersen, Jess
2018-02-01
The conventional climate gridded datasets based on observations only are widely used in atmospheric sciences; our focus in this paper is on climate and hydrology. On the Norwegian mainland, seNorge2 provides high-resolution fields of daily total precipitation for applications requiring long-term datasets at regional or national level, where the challenge is to simulate small-scale processes often taking place in complex terrain. The dataset constitutes a valuable meteorological input for snow and hydrological simulations; it is updated daily and presented on a high-resolution grid (1 km of grid spacing). The climate archive goes back to 1957. The spatial interpolation scheme builds upon classical methods, such as optimal interpolation and successive-correction schemes. An original approach based on (spatial) scale-separation concepts has been implemented which uses geographical coordinates and elevation as complementary information in the interpolation. seNorge2 daily precipitation fields represent local precipitation features at spatial scales of a few kilometers, depending on the station network density. In the surroundings of a station or in dense station areas, the predictions are quite accurate even for intense precipitation. For most of the grid points, the performances are comparable to or better than a state-of-the-art pan-European dataset (E-OBS), because of the higher effective resolution of seNorge2. However, in very data-sparse areas, such as in the mountainous region of southern Norway, seNorge2 underestimates precipitation because it does not make use of enough geographical information to compensate for the lack of observations. The evaluation of seNorge2 as the meteorological forcing for the seNorge snow model and the DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) rainfall-runoff model shows that both models have been able to make profitable use of seNorge2, partly because of the automatic calibration procedure they incorporate for precipitation. The seNorge2
Relationships between Tropical Rainfall Events and Regional Annual Rainfall Anomalies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Painter, C.; Varble, A.; Zipser, E. J.
2016-12-01
Regional annual precipitation anomalies strongly impact the health of regional ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and the probability of flood and drought conditions. Individual event characteristics, including rain rate, areal coverage, and stratiform fraction are also crucial in considering large-scale impacts on these resources. Therefore, forecasting individual event characteristics is important and could potentially be improved through correlation with longer and better predicted timescale environmental variables such as annual rainfall. This study examines twelve years of retrieved rainfall characteristics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at a 5° x 5° resolution between 35°N and 35°S, as a function of annual rainfall anomaly derived from Global Precipitation Climatology Project data. Rainfall event characteristics are derived at a system scale from the University of Utah TRMM Precipitation Features database and at a 5-km pixel scale from TRMM 2A25 products. For each 5° x 5° grid box and year, relationships between these characteristics and annual rainfall anomaly are derived. Additionally, years are separated into wet and dry groups for each grid box and are compared versus one another. Convective and stratiform rain rates, along with system area and volumetric rainfall, generally increase during wetter years, and this increase is most prominent over oceans. This is in agreement with recent studies suggesting that convective systems become larger and rainier when regional annual rainfall increases or when the climate warms. Over some land regions, on the other hand, system rain rate, volumetric rainfall, and area actually decrease as annual rainfall increases. Therefore, land and ocean regions generally exhibit different relationships. In agreement with recent studies of extreme rainfall in a changing climate, the largest and rainiest systems increase in relative size and intensity compared to average systems, and do
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Atlas, D. (Editor); Thiele, O. W. (Editor)
1981-01-01
Global climate, agricultural uses for precipitation information, hydrological uses for precipitation, severe thunderstorms and local weather, global weather are addressed. Ground truth measurement, visible and infrared techniques, microwave radiometry and hybrid precipitation measurements, and spaceborne radar are discussed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shen, H.
2017-12-01
Increasing intensity in global warming and anthropogenic activities has triggered significant changes over regional climates and landscapes, which, in turn, drive the basin water cycle and hydrological balance into a complex and unstable state. Budyko hypothesis is a powerful tool to characterize basin water balance and hydrological variations at long-term average scale. However, due to the absence of basin water storage change, applications of Budyko theory to the inter-annual and intra-annual time scales has been prohibited. The launch of GRACE gavimetry satellites provides a great opportunity to quantify terrestrial water storage change, which can be further introduced into the Budyko hypothesis to reveal the inter- and intra-annual response of basin water components under impacts of climate variability and/or human activities. This research targeted Hai River Basin (in China) and Murray-Darling Basin (in Australia), which have been identified with a continuous groundwater depletion trend as well as impacts by extreme climates in the past decade. This can help us to explore how annual or seasonal precipitation were redistributed to evapotranspiration and runoff via changing basin water storage. Moreover, the impacts of vegetation on annual basin water balance will be re-examined. Our results are expected to provide deep insights about the water cycle and hydrological behaviors for the targeted basins, as well as a proof for a consideration of basin water storage change into the Budyko model at inter- or intra-annual time steps.
Using GRACE to constrain precipitation amount over cold mountainous basins
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Behrangi, Ali; Gardner, Alex S.; Reager, John T.; Fisher, Joshua B.
2017-01-01
Despite the importance for hydrology and climate-change studies, current quantitative knowledge on the amount and distribution of precipitation in mountainous and high-elevation regions is limited due to instrumental and retrieval shortcomings. Here by focusing on two large endorheic basins in High Mountain Asia, we show that satellite gravimetry (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)) can be used to provide an independent estimate of monthly accumulated precipitation using mass balance equation. Results showed that the GRACE-based precipitation estimate has the highest agreement with most of the commonly used precipitation products in summer, but it deviates from them in cold months, when the other products are expected to have larger errors. It was found that most of the products capture about or less than 50% of the total precipitation estimated using GRACE in winter. Overall, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) showed better agreement with GRACE estimate than other products. Yet on average GRACE showed 30% more annual precipitation than GPCP in the study basins. In basins of appropriate size with an absence of dense ground measurements, as is a typical case in cold mountainous regions, we find GRACE can be a viable alternative to constrain monthly and seasonal precipitation estimates from other remotely sensed precipitation products that show large bias.
Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weller, Grant B.; Cooley, Daniel; Sain, Stephan R.; Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Mearns, Linda O.
2013-09-01
We introduce novel methodology to examine the ability of six regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble to simulate past extreme precipitation events seen in the observational record over two different regions and seasons. Our primary objective is to examine the strength of daily correspondence of extreme precipitation events between observations and the output of both the RCMs and the driving reanalysis product. To explore this correspondence, we employ methods from multivariate extreme value theory. These methods require that we account for marginal behavior, and we first model and compare climatological quantities which describe tail behavior of daily precipitation for both the observations and model output before turning attention to quantifying the correspondence of the extreme events. Daily precipitation in a West Coast region of North America is analyzed in two seasons, and it is found that the simulated extreme events from the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models exhibit strong daily correspondence to extreme events in the observational record. Precipitation over a central region of the United States is examined, and we find some daily correspondence between winter extremes simulated by reanalysis-driven NARCCAP models and those seen in observations, but no such correspondence is found for summer extremes. Furthermore, we find greater discrepancies among the NARCCAP models in the tail characteristics of the distribution of daily summer precipitation over this region than seen in precipitation over the West Coast region. We find that the models which employ spectral nudging exhibit stronger tail dependence to observations in the central region.
Precipitation Characteristics in West and East Africa from Satellite and in Situ Observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dezfuli, Amin K.; Ichoku, Charles M.; Mohr, Karen I.; Huffman, George J.
2017-01-01
Using in situ data, three precipitation classes are identified for rainy seasons of West and East Africa: weak convective rainfall (WCR), strong convective rainfall (SCR), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs).Nearly 75% of the total seasonal precipitation is produced by the SCR and MCSs, even though they represent only 8% of the rain events. Rain events in East Africa tend to have a longer duration and lower intensity than in West Africa, reflecting different characteristics of the SCR and MCS events in these two regions. Surface heating seems to be the primary convection trigger for the SCR, particularly in East Africa, whereas the WCR requires a dynamical trigger such as low-level convergence. The data are used to evaluate the performance of the recently launched Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG)project. The IMERG-based precipitation shows significant improvement over its predecessor, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), particularly in capturing the MCSs, due to its improved temporal resolution.
Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tu, W.; Selesnick, R. S.; Li, X.; Looper, M. D.
2009-12-01
Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a Drift-Diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drifts and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons detected by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The Drift-Diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different types of magnitude were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ~0.5 to 3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storm and at L shells ranging from L=3.5 to L=6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). They are a small storm and a moderate storm in the current solar minimum and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of energetic radiation belt electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies, over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron lifetimes for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.
Geographic variation in wood specific gravity: effects of latitude, temperature, and precipitation
Michael C. Wiemann; G. Bruce Williamson
2002-01-01
Wood basic specific gravity (SG) was compared at sites located along a gradient from 52°N latitude to the equator. Mean SG increased by 0.0049 per °C mean annual temperature (MAT), and decreased by 0.00017 per cm of mean annual precipitation (MAP). Considered alone, MAT was a better predictor of mean SG across the temperate zone (3-22°C MAT,...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Dong-In; Kim, Dong-Kyun; Kim, Ji-Hyeon; Kang, Yunhee; Kim, Hyeonjoon
2017-04-01
During a summer monsoon season each year, severe weather phenomena caused by front, mesoscale convective systems, or typhoons often occur in the southern Korean Peninsula where is mostly comprised of complex high mountains. These areas play an important role in controlling formation, amount, and distribution of rainfall. As precipitation systems move over the mountains, they can develop rapidly and produce localized heavy rainfall. Thus observational analysis in the mountainous areas is required for studying terrain effects on the rapid rainfall development and its microphysics. We performed intensive field observations using two s-band operational weather radars around Mt. Jiri (1950 m ASL) during summertime on June and July in 2015-2016. Observation data of DSD (Drop Size Distribution) from Parsivel disdrometer and (w component) vertical velocity data from ultrasonic anemometers were analyzed for Typhoon Chanhom on 12 July 2015 and the heavy rain event on 1 July 2016. During the heavy rain event, a dual-Doppler radar analysis using Jindo radar and Gunsan radar was also conducted to examine 3-D wind fields and vertical structure of reflectivity in these areas. For examining up-/downdrafts in the windward or leeward side of Mt. Jiri, we developed a new scheme technique to estimate vertical velocities (w) from drop size and fall velocity spectra of Parsivel disdrometers at different stations. Their comparison with the w values observed by the 3D anemometer showed quite good agreement each other. The Z histogram with regard to the estimated w was similar to that with regard to R, indicating that Parsivel-estimated w is quite reasonable for classifying strong and weak rain, corresponding to updraft and downdraft, respectively. Mostly, positive w values (upward) were estimated in heavy rainfall at the windward side (D1 and D2). Negative w values (downward) were dominant even during large rainfall at the leeward side (D4). For D1 and D2, the upward w percentages were
Oxygen-18 concentrations in recent precipitation and ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau
Tian, L.; Yao, T.; Schuster, P.F.; White, J.W.C.; Ichiyanagi, K.; Pendall, Elise; Pu, J.; Yu, W.
2003-01-01
A detailed study of the climatic significance of ??18O in precipitation was completed on a 1500 km southwest-northeast transect of the Tibetan Plateau in central Asia. Precipitation samples were collected at four meteorological stations for up to 9 years. This study shows that the gradual impact of monsoon precipitation affects the spatial variation of ??18O-T relationship along the transect. Strong monsoon activity in the southern Tibetan Plateau results in high precipitation rates and more depleted heavy isotopes. This depletion mechanism is described as a precipitation "amount effect" and results in a poor ??18O-T relationship at both seasonal and annual scales. In the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, the effects of the monsoon are diminished but continue to cause a reduced correlation of ??18O and temperature at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, however, a significant ??18O-T relationship does exist. To the north of the Tibetan Plateau beyond the extent of the effects of monsoon precipitation, ??18O in precipitation shows a strong temperature dependence. ??18O records from two shallow ice cores and historic air temperature data were compared to verify the modern ??18O-T relationship. ??18O in Dunde ice core was positively correlated with air temperature from a nearby meteorological station in the north of the plateau. The ??18O variation in an ice core from the southern Plateau, however, was inversely correlated with precipitation amount at a nearby meteorological station and also the accumulation record in the ice core. The long-term variation of ??18O in the ice core record in the monsoon regions of the southern Tibetan Plateau suggest past monsoon seasons were probably more expansive. It is still unclear, however, how changes in large-scale atmosphere circulation might influence summer monsoon precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau.
Bender, L.C.; Weisenberger, M.E.
2005-01-01
Understanding the determinants of population size and performance for desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana) is critical to develop effective recovery and management strategies. In arid environments, plant communities and consequently herbivore populations are strongly dependent upon precipitation, which is highly variable seasonally and annually. We conducted a retrospective exploratory analysis of desert bighorn sheep population dynamics on San Andres National Wildlife Refuge (SANWR), New Mexico, 1941-1976, by modeling sheep population size as a function of previous population sizes and precipitation. Population size and trend of desert bighorn were best and well described (R 2=0.89) by a model that included only total annual precipitation as a covariate. Models incorporating density-dependence, delayed density-dependence, and combinations of density and precipitation were less informative than the model containing precipitation alone (??AlCc=8.5-22.5). Lamb:female ratios were positively related to precipitation (current year: F1,34=7.09, P=0.012; previous year: F1,33=3.37, P=0.075) but were unrelated to population size (current year. F1,34=0.04, P=0.843; previous year: F1,33 =0.14, P=0.715). Instantaneous population rate of increase (r) was related to population size (F1,33=5.55; P=0.025). Precipitation limited populations of desert bighorn sheep on SANWR primarily in a density-independent manner by affecting production or survival of lambs, likely through influences on forage quantity and quality. Habitat evaluations and recovery plans for desert bighorn sheep need to consider fundamental influences on desert bighorn populations such as precipitation and food, rather than focus solely on proximate issues such as security cover, predation, and disease. Moreover, the concept of carrying capacity for desert bighorn sheep may need re-evaluation in respect to highly variable (CV =35.6%) localized precipitation patterns. On SANWR carrying capacity for desert
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Chaolin; Zhong, Shaobo; Zhang, Fushen; Huang, Quanyi
2016-11-01
Precipitation interpolation has been a hot area of research for many years. It had close relation to meteorological factors. In this paper, precipitation from 91 meteorological stations located in and around Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi Zhuang provinces (or autonomous region), Mainland China was taken into consideration for spatial interpolation. Multivariate Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) method with auxiliary variables, including mean relative humidity, water vapour pressure, mean temperature, mean wind speed and terrain elevation, was used to get more accurate regional distribution of annual precipitation. The means, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of meteorological factors were calculated. Variogram and cross- variogram were fitted between precipitation and auxiliary variables. The results showed that the multivariate BME method was precise with hard and soft data, probability density function. Annual mean precipitation was positively correlated with mean relative humidity, mean water vapour pressure, mean temperature and mean wind speed, negatively correlated with terrain elevation. The results are supposed to provide substantial reference for research of drought and waterlog in the region.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dayem, Katherine E.; Molnar, Peter; Battisti, David S.; Roe, Gerard H.
2010-06-01
Variability in oxygen isotope ratios collected from speleothems in Chinese caves is often interpreted as a proxy for variability of precipitation, summer precipitation, seasonality of precipitation, and/or the proportion of 18O to 16O of annual total rainfall that is related to a strengthening or weakening of the East Asian monsoon and, in some cases, to the Indian monsoon. We use modern reanalysis and station data to test whether precipitation and temperature variability over China can be related to changes in climate in these distant locales. We find that annual and rainy season precipitation totals in each of central China, south China, and east India have correlation length scales of ∼ 500 km, shorter than the distance between many speleothem records that share similar long-term time variations in δ18O values. Thus the short distances of correlation do not support, though by themselves cannot refute, the idea that apparently synchronous variations in δ18O values at widely spaced (> 500 km) caves in China are due to variations in annual precipitation amounts. We also evaluate connections between climate variables and δ18O values using available instrumental measurements of δ18O values in precipitation. These data, from stations in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), show that monthly δ18O values generally do not correlate well with either local precipitation amount or local temperature, and the degree to which monthly δ18O values do correlate with them varies from station to station. For the few locations that do show significant correlations between δ18O values and precipitation amount, we estimate the differences in precipitation amount that would be required to account for peak-to-peak differences in δ18O values in the speleothems from Hulu and Dongge caves, assuming that δ18O scales with the monthly amount of precipitation or with seasonal differences in precipitation. Insofar as the present-day relationship between δ18O
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Jiqing; Duan, Zhipeng; Huang, Jing
2018-06-01
With the aggravation of the global climate change, the shortage of water resources in China is becoming more and more serious. Using reasonable methods to study changes in precipitation is very important for planning and management of water resources. Based on the time series of precipitation in Beijing from 1951 to 2015, the multi-scale features of precipitation are analyzed by the Extreme-point Symmetric Mode Decomposition (ESMD) method to forecast the precipitation shift. The results show that the precipitation series have periodic changes of 2.6, 4.3, 14 and 21.7 years, and the variance contribution rate of each modal component shows that the inter-annual variation dominates the precipitation in Beijing. It is predicted that precipitation in Beijing will continue to decrease in the near future.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Helama, Samuli; Sohar, Kristina; Läänelaid, Alar; Bijak, Szymon; Jaagus, Jaak
2018-06-01
There is plenty of evidence for intensification of the global hydrological cycle. In Europe, the northern areas are predicted to receive more precipitation in the future and observational evidence suggests a parallel trend over the past decades. As a consequence, it would be essential to place the recent trend in precipitation in the context of proxy-based estimates of reconstructed precipitation variability over the past centuries. Tree rings are frequently used as proxy data for palaeoclimate reconstructions. Here we use deciduous ( Quercus robur) and coniferous ( Picea abies) tree-ring width chronologies from western Estonia to deduce past early-summer (June) precipitation variability since 1771. Statistical model transforming our tree-ring data into estimates of precipitation sums explains 42% of the variance in instrumental variability. Comparisons with products of gridded reconstructions of soil moisture and summer precipitation illustrate robust correlations with soil moisture (Palmer Drought Severity Index), but lowered correlation with summer precipitation estimates prior to mid-nineteenth century, these instabilities possibly reflecting the general uncertainties inherent to early meteorological and proxy data. Reconstructed precipitation variability was negatively correlated to the teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavia pattern, on annual to decadal and longer scales. These relationships demonstrate the positive precipitation anomalies to result from increase in zonal inflow and cyclonic activity, the negative anomalies being linked with the high pressure conditions enhanced during the atmospheric blocking episodes. Recently, the instrumental data have demonstrated a remarkable increase in summer (June) precipitation in the study region. Our tree-ring based reconstruction reproduces this trend in the context of precipitation history since eighteenth century and quantifies the unprecedented abundance of June
Observing Semi-Arid Ecoclimates across Mountain Gradients in the Great Basin, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strachan, Scotty
Observation of climate and ecohydrological variables in mountain systems is a necessary (if challenging) endeavor for modern society. Water resources are often intimately tied to mountains, and high elevation environments are frequently home to unique landscapes and biota with limited geographical distributions. This is especially true in the temperate and semi-arid mountains of the western United States, and specifically the Great Basin. Stark contrasts in annual water balance and ecological populations are visible across steep elevational gradients in the region; and yet the bulk of our historical knowledge of climate and related processes comes from lowland observations. Interpolative models that strive to estimate conditions in mountains using existing datasets are often found to be inaccurate, making future projections of mountain climate and ecosystem response suspect. This study details the results of high-resolution topographically-diverse ecohydrological monitoring, and describes the character and seasonality of basic climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation as well as their impact on soil moisture and vegetation during the 2012-2015 drought sequence. Relationships of topography (elevation/aspect) to daily and seasonal temperatures are shown. Tests of the PRISM temperature model are performed at the large watershed scale, revealing magnitudes, modes, and potential sources of bias that could dramatically affect derivative scientific conclusions. A new method of precipitation phase partitioning to detect and quantify frozen precipitation on a sub-daily basis is described. Character of precipitation from sub-daily to annual scales is quantified across all major Great Basin vegetation/elevation zones, and the relationship of elevation to precipitation phase, intensity, and amount is explored. Water-stress responses of Great Basin conifers including Pinus flexilis, Pinus longaeva, and Pinus ponderosa are directly observed, showing potential
Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.
Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L
2014-07-01
Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael
2018-06-01
Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.
Spatial Downscaling of TRMM Precipitation using MODIS product in the Korean Peninsula
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cho, H.; Choi, M.
2013-12-01
Precipitation is a major driving force in the water cycle. But, it is difficult to provide spatially distributed precipitation data from isolated individual in situ. The Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) satellite can provide precipitation data with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.25° scale) at daily basis. In order to overcome the coarse spatial resolution of TRMM precipitation products, we conducted a downscaling technique using a scaling parameter from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) sensor. In this study, statistical relations between precipitation estimates derived from the TRMM satellite and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) which is obtained from the MODIS sensor in TERRA satellite are found for different spatial scales on the Korean peninsula in northeast Asia. We obtain the downscaled precipitation mapping by regression equation between yearly TRMM precipitations values and annual average NDVI aggregating 1km to 25 degree. The downscaled precipitation is validated using time series of the ground measurements precipitation dataset provided by Korea Meteorological Organization (KMO) from 2002 to 2005. To improve the spatial downscaling of precipitation, we will conduct a study about correlation between precipitation and land surface temperature, perceptible water and other hydrological parameters.
Application of an Ensemble Smoother to Precipitation Assimilation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zhang, Sara; Zupanski, Dusanka; Hou, Arthur; Zupanski, Milija
2008-01-01
Assimilation of precipitation in a global modeling system poses a special challenge in that the observation operators for precipitation processes are highly nonlinear. In the variational approach, substantial development work and model simplifications are required to include precipitation-related physical processes in the tangent linear model and its adjoint. An ensemble based data assimilation algorithm "Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Smoother (MLES)" has been developed to explore the ensemble representation of the precipitation observation operator with nonlinear convection and large-scale moist physics. An ensemble assimilation system based on the NASA GEOS-5 GCM has been constructed to assimilate satellite precipitation data within the MLES framework. The configuration of the smoother takes the time dimension into account for the relationship between state variables and observable rainfall. The full nonlinear forward model ensembles are used to represent components involving the observation operator and its transpose. Several assimilation experiments using satellite precipitation observations have been carried out to investigate the effectiveness of the ensemble representation of the nonlinear observation operator and the data impact of assimilating rain retrievals from the TMI and SSM/I sensors. Preliminary results show that this ensemble assimilation approach is capable of extracting information from nonlinear observations to improve the analysis and forecast if ensemble size is adequate, and a suitable localization scheme is applied. In addition to a dynamically consistent precipitation analysis, the assimilation system produces a statistical estimate of the analysis uncertainty.
O'Donnell, Alison J.; Cook, Edward R.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Page, Gerald F. M.; Grierson, Pauline F.
2015-01-01
An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar–May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. PMID:26039148
O'Donnell, Alison J; Cook, Edward R; Palmer, Jonathan G; Turney, Chris S M; Page, Gerald F M; Grierson, Pauline F
2015-01-01
An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec-May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar-May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910-2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995-2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode.
Precipitation chemistry along an inland transect on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Blew, R.D.; Edmonds, R.L.
1995-03-01
The objective of this study was to examine oceanic influences, seasonal variation, and effect of distance from the ocean on the chemistry of bulk precipitation falling on the Pacific coast of Washington State. Bulk precipitation was collected at Sites 4, 13, 24, and 31 km inland from the Pacific Ocean. Mean electrical conductivity of precipitation ranged from 0.47 to 1.02 mS m{sup -1} and mean pH ranged from 5.3 to 5.6. Annual precipitation increased from 2780 mm at 4 km to approximately 3500 mm at 13 km from the coast and remained constant through 31 km inland. Precipitation was highestmore » in the late fall and winter months and lowest during the summer. Rates of ion deposition had a similar seasonal pattern to that of precipitation. Concentrations of Cl, SO{sub 4}, Mg, Na, and excess Ca (Ca in excess of expected sea salt levels) were highest nearest to the coast and were reflected in higher electrical conductivity in precipitation falling closets to the coast.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.
2011-12-01
The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.
Precipitate resolution in an electron irradiated ni-si alloy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Watanabe, H.; Muroga, T.; Yoshida, N.; Kitajima, K.
1988-09-01
Precipitate resolution processes in a Ni-12.6 at% Si alloy under electron irradiation have been observed by means of HVEM. Above 400°C, growth and resolution of Ni 3Si precipitates were observed simultaneously. The detail stereoscopic observation showed that the precipitates close to free surfaces grew, while those in the middle of a specimen dissolved. The critical dose when the precipitates start to shrink increases with increasing the depth. This depth dependence of the precipitate behavior under irradiation has a close relation with the formation of surface precipitates and the growth of solute depleted zone beneath them. The temperature and dose dependence of the resolution rate showed that the precipitates in the solute depleted zone dissolved by the interface controlled process of radiation-enhanced diffusion.
A model function of the global bomb tritium distribution in precipitation, 1960-1986
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doney, Scott C.; Glover, David M.; Jenkins, William J.
1992-04-01
The paper presents a model function for predicting the annual mean concentration of the decay-corrected bomb tritium in precipitation over the time period 1960-1986. The model was developed using the World Meteorological Organization/International Atomic Energy Agency data for tritium precipitation. The resulting tritium function is global in scope and includes both marine and continental data. Estimates were obtained of the seasonal cycle of tritium in precipitation, which may be useful for studying atmospheric transport and oceanic processes, such as convection and subduction that occur on seasonal timescales.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio
2017-04-01
Precipitation is a fundamental climate variable that has a pronounced spatial and temporal variability on a global scale, as well as at regional and sub-regional scales. Due to its orographic complexity and its latitude the Iberian Peninsula (IP), located to the west of the Mediterranean Basin between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a complex climate. Over the peninsula there are strong north-south and east-west gradients, as a consequence of the different low-frequency atmospheric patterns, and he overlap of these over the year will be determinants in the variability of climatic variables. In the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula dominates a dry Mediterranean climate, the precipitation is characterized as being an intermittent and discontinuous variable. In this research information coming from the Spain02 v4 database was used to study the South East (SE) IP for the 1971-2010 period with a spatial resolution of 0.11 x 0.11. We analysed precipitation at different time scale (daily, monthly, seasonal, annual,…) to study the spatial distribution and temporal tendencies. The high spatial, intra-annual and inter-annual climatic variability observed makes it necessary to propose a climatic regionalization. In addition, for the identified areas and subareas of homogeneous climate we have analysed the evolution of the meteorological drought for the same period at different time scales. The standardized precipitation index has been used at 12, 24 and 48 month temporal scale. The climatic complexity of the area determines a high variability in the drought characteristics, duration, intensity and frequency in the different climatic areas. This research has been supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 project for the data provided for this study.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shepherd, J. Marshall; Smith, Eric A.; Adams, W. James (Editor)
2002-01-01
Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.
Precipitation Estimates for Hydroelectricity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tapiador, Francisco J.; Hou, Arthur Y.; de Castro, Manuel; Checa, Ramiro; Cuartero, Fernando; Barros, Ana P.
2011-01-01
Hydroelectric plants require precise and timely estimates of rain, snow and other hydrometeors for operations. However, it is far from being a trivial task to measure and predict precipitation. This paper presents the linkages between precipitation science and hydroelectricity, and in doing so it provides insight into current research directions that are relevant for this renewable energy. Methods described include radars, disdrometers, satellites and numerical models. Two recent advances that have the potential of being highly beneficial for hydropower operations are featured: the Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) mission, which represents an important leap forward in precipitation observations from space, and high performance computing (HPC) and grid technology, that allows building ensembles of numerical weather and climate models.
Precipitation records and flood-producing storms in Cheyenne, Wyoming
Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.
1988-01-01
Annual maximum precipitation data for Cheyenne, Wyoming, are presented for the years 1871-1986 for durations of 5, 10, 15, and 30 minutes and 1, 2, and 24 hours. Precipitation-frequency curves are developed on the basis of data collected before 1985; a second set of curves are developed on the basis of data collected through 1986. The data are plotted and analyzed three times, assuming: (1) The data are described by a Gumbel distribution; (2) the logarithms of the data are described by a Gumbel distribution; and (3) the logarithms of the data are described by a Pearson Type III distribution. The inclusion of data for the large storm of August 1, 1985, had the most noticeable effect on the prediction of the magnitude of storms of long average recurrence intervals for the 1-, 2-, and 24-hour durations. Seven intensity-duration curves were calculated for the August 1, 1985 storm. For durations greater than 30 minutes, the observed curve indicates greater intensity than do five of the seven calculated curves. Dimensionless hyetographs were developed for 10 flood-producing storms that have occurred in the Cheyenne area since 1903. The pattern index (integral of the dimensionless hyetograph curve) for the storm of August 1, 1985, is 3 standard deviations lower than the mean of the pattern indices for the remaining 9 storms, indicating that the distribution of precipitation with time for the August 1, 1985, storm was outside the normal range for Cheyenne. (USGS)
Inter-comparison of precipitable water among reanalyses and its effect on downscaling in the tropics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takahashi, H. G.; Fujita, M.; Hara, M.
2012-12-01
This paper compared precipitable water (PW) among four major reanalyses. In addition, we also investigated the effect of the boundary conditions on downscaling in the tropics, using a regional climate model. The spatial pattern of PW in the reanalyses agreed closely with observations. However, the absolute amounts of PW in some reanalyses were very small compared to observations. The discrepancies of the 12-year mean PW in July over the Southeast Asian monsoon region exceeded the inter-annual standard deviation of the PW. There was also a discrepancy in tropical PWs throughout the year, an indication that the problem is not regional, but global. The downscaling experiments were conducted, which were forced by the different four reanalyses. The atmospheric circulation, including monsoon westerlies and various disturbances, was very small among the reanalyses. However, simulated precipitation was only 60 % of observed precipitation, although the dry bias in the boundary conditions was only 6 %. This result indicates that dry bias has large effects on precipitation in downscaling over the tropics. This suggests that a simulated regional climate downscaled from ensemble-mean boundary conditions is quite different from an ensemble-mean regional climate averaged over the several regional ones downscaled from boundary conditions of the ensemble members in the tropics. Downscaled models can provide realistic simulations of regional tropical climates only if the boundary conditions include realistic absolute amounts of PW. Use of boundary conditions that include realistic absolute amounts of PW in downscaling in the tropics is imperative at the present time. This work was partly supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (RFa-1101) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.
1988-03-01
A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.
1988-01-01
A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.
Optimizing Precipitation Thresholds for Best Correlation Between Dry Lightning and Wildfires
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vant-Hull, Brian; Thompson, Tollisha; Koshak, William
2018-03-01
This work examines how to adjust the definition of "dry lightning" in order to optimize the correlation between dry lightning flash count and the climatology of large (>400 km2) lightning-ignited wildfires over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The National Lightning Detection Network™ and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV radar-based, gauge-adjusted precipitation data are used to form climatic data sets. For a 13 year analysis period over CONUS, a correlation of 0.88 is found between annual totals of wildfires and dry lightning. This optimal correlation is found by defining dry lightning as follows: on a 0.1° hourly grid, a precipitation threshold of no more than 0.3 mm may accumulate during any hour over a period of 3-4 days preceding the flash. Regional optimized definitions vary. When annual totals are analyzed as done here, no clear advantage is found by weighting positive polarity cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning differently than -CG lightning. The high variability of dry lightning relative to the precipitation and lightning from which it is derived suggests it would be an independent and useful climate indicator.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yatagai, Akiyo; Watanabe, Akira; Ishihara, Masahito; Ishihara, Hirohiko; Takara, Kaoru
2014-05-01
The transport and diffusion of the radioactive pollutants from the Fukushima-Daiichi NPP inthe atmosphere caused a disaster for residents in and around Fukushima. Studies have sought to understand the transport, diffusion, and deposition process, and to understand the movement of radioactive pollutants through the soil, vegetation, rivers, and groundwater. However, a detailed simulation and understanding of the distribution of radioactive compounds depend on a simulation of precipitation and on the information on the timing of the emission of these radioactive pollutants from the NPP. Further, precipitation type and its amount affect the various transport process of the radioactive nuclides. Hence, this study first examine the qualitative precipitation pattern and timing in March 2011 using X-band radar data from Fukushima University and three dimensional C-band radar data network of Japan Meteorological Agency. Second, by collecting rain-gauge network and other surface meteorological data, we estimate quantitative precipitation and its type (rain/snow) according to the same method used to create APHRODITE daily grid precipitation (Yatagai et al., 2012) and judge of rain/snow (Yasutomi et al., 2011). For example, the data clarified that snowfall was observed on the night of Mar 15 into the morning of Mar 16 throughout Fukushima prefecture. This had an important effect on the radioactive contamination pattern in Fukushima prefecture. The precipitation pattern itself does not show one-on-one correspondence with the contamination pattern. While the pollutants transported northeast of the NPP and through north Kanto (about 200 km southwest of Fukushima and, 100 km north of Tokyo) went to the northeast, the timing of the precipitation causing the fallout, i.e., wet-deposition, is important. Although the hourly Radar-AMeDAS 1-km-mesh precipitation data of JMA are available publically, it does not represent the precipitation pattern in Nakadori, in central Fukushima
Wieczorek, Michael; LaMotte, Andrew E.
2010-01-01
This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States. The source data were the "United States Average Monthly or Annual Precipitation, 1971 - 2000" raster dataset produced by the PRISM Group at Oregon State University. The NHDPlus Version 1.1 is an integrated suite of application-ready geospatial datasets that incorporates many of the best features of the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). The NHDPlus includes a stream network (based on the 1:100,00-scale NHD), improved networking, naming, and value-added attributes (VAAs). NHDPlus also includes elevation-derived catchments (drainage areas) produced using a drainage enforcement technique first widely used in New England, and thus referred to as "the New England Method." This technique involves "burning in" the 1:100,000-scale NHD and when available building "walls" using the National Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD). The resulting modified digital elevation model (HydroDEM) is used to produce hydrologic derivatives that agree with the NHD and WBD. Over the past two years, an interdisciplinary team from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), and contractors, found that this method produces the best quality NHD catchments using an automated process (USEPA, 2007). The NHDPlus dataset is organized by 18 Production Units that cover the conterminous United States. The NHDPlus version 1.1 data are grouped by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Major River Basins (MRBs, Crawford and others, 2006). MRB1, covering the New England and Mid-Atlantic River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 1 and 2. MRB2, covering the South Atlantic-Gulf and Tennessee River basins, contains NHDPlus Production Units 3 and 6. MRB3, covering the Great Lakes, Ohio, Upper Mississippi, and Souris-Red-Rainy River basins, contains
Analysis of satellite precipitation over East Africa during last decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cattani, Elsa; Wenhaji Ndomeni, Claudine; Merino, Andrés; Levizzani, Vincenzo
2016-04-01
Daily accumulated precipitation time series from satellite retrieval algorithms (e.g., ARC2 and TAMSAT) are exploited to extract the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA - 5°S-20°N, 28°E-52°E) precipitation during last decades (1983-2013). The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to precipitation time series to investigate the spatial and temporal variability in particular for October-November-December referred to as the short rain season. Moreover, the connection among EA's precipitation, sea surface temperature, and soil moisture is analyzed through the correlation with the dominant EOF modes of variability. Preliminary results concern the first two EOF's modes for the ARC2 data set. EOF1 is characterized by an inter-annual variability and a positive correlation between precipitation and El Niño, positive Indian Ocean Dipole mode, and soil moisture, while EOF2 shows a dipole structure of spatial variability associated with a longer scale temporal variability. This second dominant mode is mostly linked to sea surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic Ocean. Further analyses are carried out by computing the time series of the joint CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/index.shtml), i.e. RX1day, RX5day, CDD, CDD, CWD, SDII, PRCPTOT, R10, R20. The purpose is to identify the occurrenes of extreme events (droughts and floods) and extract precipitation temporal variation by trend analysis (Mann-Kendall technique). Results for the ARC2 data set demonstrate the existence of a dipole spatial pattern in the linear trend of the time series of PRCPTOT (annual precipitation considering days with a rain rate > 1 mm) and SDII (average precipitation on wet days over a year). A negative trend is mainly present over West Ethiopia and Sudan, whereas a positive trend is exhibited over East Ethiopia and Somalia. CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and
Precipitation Measurements from Space: The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hou, Arthur Y.
2007-01-01
Water is fundamental to the life on Earth and its phase transition between the gaseous, liquid, and solid states dominates the behavior of the weather/climate/ecological system. Precipitation, which converts atmospheric water vapor into rain and snow, is central to the global water cycle. It regulates the global energy balance through interactions with clouds and water vapor (the primary greenhouse gas), and also shapes global winds and dynamic transport through latent heat release. Surface precipitation affects soil moisture, ocean salinity, and land hydrology, thus linking fast atmospheric processes to the slower components of the climate system. Precipitation is also the primary source of freshwater in the world, which is facing an emerging freshwater crisis in many regions. Accurate and timely knowledge of global precipitation is essential for understanding the behavior of the global water cycle, improving freshwater management, and advancing predictive capabilities of high-impact weather events such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, and landslides. With limited rainfall networks on land and the impracticality of making extensive rainfall measurements over oceans, a comprehensive description of the space and time variability of global precipitation can only be achieved from the vantage point of space. This presentation will examine current capabilities in space-borne rainfall measurements, highlight scientific and practical benefits derived from these observations to date, and provide an overview of the multi-national Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission scheduled to bc launched in the early next decade.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
di Luca, Alejandro; de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René
2012-03-01
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions.
Estimating Evapotranspiration Using an Observation Based Terrestrial Water Budget
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rodell, Matthew; McWilliams, Eric B.; Famiglietti, James S.; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Nigro, Joseph
2011-01-01
Evapotranspiration (ET) is difficult to measure at the scales of climate models and climate variability. While satellite retrieval algorithms do exist, their accuracy is limited by the sparseness of in situ observations available for calibration and validation, which themselves may be unrepresentative of 500m and larger scale satellite footprints and grid pixels. Here, we use a combination of satellite and ground-based observations to close the water budgets of seven continental scale river basins (Mackenzie, Fraser, Nelson, Mississippi, Tocantins, Danube, and Ubangi), estimating mean ET as a residual. For any river basin, ET must equal total precipitation minus net runoff minus the change in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), in order for mass to be conserved. We make use of precipitation from two global observation-based products, archived runoff data, and TWS changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission. We demonstrate that while uncertainty in the water budget-based estimates of monthly ET is often too large for those estimates to be useful, the uncertainty in the mean annual cycle is small enough that it is practical for evaluating other ET products. Here, we evaluate five land surface model simulations, two operational atmospheric analyses, and a recent global reanalysis product based on our results. An important outcome is that the water budget-based ET time series in two tropical river basins, one in Brazil and the other in central Africa, exhibit a weak annual cycle, which may help to resolve debate about the strength of the annual cycle of ET in such regions and how ET is constrained throughout the year. The methods described will be useful for water and energy budget studies, weather and climate model assessments, and satellite-based ET retrieval optimization.
Mapping ENSO: Precipitation for the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wright, E.; Price, J.; Kruk, M. C.; Luchetti, N.; Marra, J. J.
2015-12-01
The United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) are highly susceptible to extreme precipitation events such as drought and flooding, which directly affect their freshwater availability. Precipitation distribution differs by sub-region, and is predominantly influenced by phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Forecasters currently rely on ENSO climatologies from sparse in situ station data to inform their precipitation outlooks. This project provided an updated ENSO-based climatology of long-term precipitation patterns for each USAPI Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) using the NOAA PERSIANN Climate Data Record (CDR). This data provided a 30-year record (1984-2015) of daily precipitation at 0.25° resolution, which was used to calculate monthly, seasonal, and yearly precipitation. Results indicated that while the PERSIANN precipitation accurately described the monthly, seasonal, and annual trends, it under-predicted the precipitation on the islands. Additionally, maps showing percent departure from normal (30 year average) were made for each three month season based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) for five ENSO phases (moderate-strong El Niño and La Niña, weak El Niño and La Niña, and neutral). Local weather service offices plan on using these results and maps to better understand how the different ENSO phases influence precipitation patterns.