Effects of orientation and downward-facing convex curvature on pool-boiling critical heat flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, Alicia Ann Harris

Photographic studies of near-saturated pool boiling on both inclined flat surfaces and a downward-facing convex surface were conducted in order to determine the physical mechanisms that trigger critical heat flux (CHF). Based on the vapor behavior observed just prior to CHF, it is shown for the flat surfaces that the surface orientations can be divided into three regions: upward-facing (0-60°), near-vertical (60-165°), and downward-facing (165-180°) each region is associated with a unique CHIP trigger mechanism. In the upward-facing region, the buoyancy forces remove the vapor vertically off the heater surface. The near- vertical region is characterized by a wavy liquid-vapor interface which sweeps along the heater surface. In the downward-facing region, the vapor repeatedly stratifies on the heater surface, greatly decreasing CHF. The vapor behavior along the convex surface is cyclic in nature and similar to the nucleation/coalescence/stratification/release procedure observed for flat surfaces in the downward-facing region. The vapor stratification occurred at the bottom (downward-facing) heaters on the convex surface. CHF is always triggered on these downward-facing heaters and then propagates up the convex surface, and the orientations of these heaters are comparable with the orientation range of the flat surface downward-facing region. The vast differences between the observed vapor behavior within the three regions and on the convex surface indicate that a single overall pool boiling CHF model cannot possibly account for all the observed effects. Upward-facing surfaces have been examined and modeled extensively by many investigators and a few investigators have addressed downward-facing surfaces, so this investigation focuses on modeling the near-vertical region. The near-vertical CHF model incorporates classical two-dimensional interfacial instability theory, a separated flow model, an energy balance, and a criterion for separation of the wavy interface

Revisiting the Cause of the 1989-2009 Arctic Surface Warming Using the Surface Energy Budget: Downward Infrared Radiation Dominates the Surface Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sukyoung; Gong, Tingting; Feldstein, Steven B.; Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

2017-10-01

The Arctic has been warming faster than elsewhere, especially during the cold season. According to the leading theory, ice-albedo feedback warms the Arctic Ocean during the summer, and the heat gained by the ocean is released during the winter, causing the cold-season warming. Screen and Simmonds (2010; SS10) concluded that the theory is correct by comparing trend patterns in surface air temperature (SAT), surface turbulence heat flux (HF), and net surface infrared radiation (IR). However, in this comparison, downward IR is more appropriate to use. By analyzing the same data used in SS10 using the surface energy budget, it is shown here that over most of the Arctic the skin temperature trend, which closely resembles the SAT trend, is largely accounted for by the downward IR, not the HF, trend.

On shapes and motion of an elongated bubble in downward liquid pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fershtman, A.; Babin, V.; Barnea, D.; Shemer, L.

2017-11-01

In stagnant liquid, or in a steady upward liquid pipe flow, an elongated (Taylor) bubble has a symmetric shape. The translational velocity of the bubble is determined by buoyancy and the liquid velocity profile ahead of it. In downward flow, however, the symmetry of the bubble nose can be lost. Taylor bubble motion in downward flow is important in numerous applications such as chemical plants and cooling systems that often contain countercurrent gas-liquid flow. In the present study, the relation between the Taylor bubble shape and its translational velocity is investigated experimentally in a vertical pipe for various downward liquid flow rates. At higher downward velocities, the bubble may be forced by the background flow to propagate downward against buoyancy. In order to include those cases as well in our experimental analysis, the bubbles were initially injected into stagnant liquid, whereas the downward flow was initiated at a later stage. This experimental procedure allowed us to identify three distinct modes of translational velocities for a given downward background liquid flow; each velocity corresponds to a different bubble shape. Hydrodynamic mechanisms that govern the transition between the modes observed in the present study are discussed.

SUMER observations detecting downward propagating waves in the solar transition region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wikstol, O.; Judge, P. G.; Hansteen, V.; Wilhelm, K.; Schuehle, U.; Moran, T.

1997-01-01

The O IV density sensitive emission lines around 1400 A, using the solar ultraviolet measurement of emitted radiation (SUMER) instrument onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), are reported on. The data for the quiet sun, obtained close to the disk center and the solar limb were acquired. A systematic correlation between a density sensitive emission line ratio and Doppler shift across the same emission profiles was obtained. The correlation is such that the density is higher in the downflowing than in the upflowing plasma. The results are in good agreement with the simulations of downward propagating waves.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Trend and Variability of China Precipitation in Spring and Summer: Linkage to Sea Surface Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fanglin; Lau, K.-M.

2004-01-01

Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend

Communication and Voluntary Downward Career Changes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Claire L.; Kramer, Michael W.

2012-01-01

Downward career changes are challenging in societies which place a premium on the accumulation of material wealth and discourage risk-taking, such as Singapore. To better understand how individuals manage their identities during such changes, 30 individuals who had completed a voluntary downward career change were interviewed. Results suggest…

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

PubMed Central

Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2014-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System–Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters’ initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time. PMID:29795823

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores.

PubMed

Casabianca, Jodi M; Lockwood, J R; McCaffrey, Daniel F

2015-04-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters' initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2015-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

Comparison of SO2 and NO2 observations from OMI and OMPS from 2012 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Wang, J.; Xu, X.; Yang, K.

2017-12-01

Both Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are precursors of PM2.5 which has significant impacts on human health. We compare observations from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) which has data gap due to row anomaly and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) that is currently the only operational UV satellite sensor providing contiguous daily global coverage. In this study, we examine changes of SO2 and NO2 in several polluted regions and see both upward trends and downward trends in different areas but trends observed by the two sensors are consistent in general. Some of these upward and downward trends are associated with economic development and implementation of emission control policy. In addition, we analyzed probability distribution function of SO2 and NO2 from the two sensors and how row anomaly effect the intercomparison.

Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward

PubMed Central

Liu, Yi; Tong, Yu; Li, Hong

2017-01-01

Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., “I am above others”). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context. PMID:28928694

Self-reflection Orients Visual Attention Downward.

PubMed

Liu, Yi; Tong, Yu; Li, Hong

2017-01-01

Previous research has demonstrated abstract concepts associated with spatial location (e.g., God in the Heavens) could direct visual attention upward or downward, because thinking about the abstract concepts activates the corresponding vertical perceptual symbols. For self-concept, there are similar metaphors (e.g., "I am above others"). However, whether thinking about the self can induce visual attention orientation is still unknown. Therefore, the current study tested whether self-reflection can direct visual attention. Individuals often display the tendency of self-enhancement in social comparison, which reminds the individual of the higher position one possesses relative to others within the social environment. As the individual is the agent of the attention orientation, and high status tends to make an individual look down upon others to obtain a sense of pride, it was hypothesized that thinking about the self would lead to a downward attention orientation. Using reflection of personality traits and a target discrimination task, Study 1 found that, after self-reflection, visual attention was directed downward. Similar effects were also found after friend-reflection, with the level of downward attention being correlated with the likability rating scores of the friend. Thus, in Study 2, a disliked other was used as a control and the positive self-view was measured with above-average judgment task. We found downward attention orientation after self-reflection, but not after reflection upon the disliked other. Moreover, the attentional bias after self-reflection was correlated with above-average self-view. The current findings provide the first evidence that thinking about the self could direct visual-spatial attention downward, and suggest that this effect is probably derived from a positive self-view within the social context.

Analysis of trends in selected streamflow statistics for the Concho River Basin, Texas, 1916-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.; May, Jayne E.

2012-01-01

Six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were selected for analysis. Streamflow-gaging station 08128000 South Concho River at Christoval has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1931-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128400 Middle Concho River above Tankersley has downward trends for annual maximum daily discharge and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the combined period 1962-95, 2002-9. Streamflow-gaging station 08128500 Middle Concho River near Tankersley has no significant trends in the streamflow statistics considered for the period 1931-60. Streamflow-gaging station 08134000 North Concho River near Carlsbad has downward trends for annual mean daily discharge, annual 7-day minimum daily discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual instantaneous peak discharge for the period 1925-2009. Streamflow-gaging stations 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo and 08136500 Concho River at Paint Rock have downward trends for 1916-2009 for all streamflow statistics calculated, but streamflow-gaging station 08136000 Concho River at San Angelo has an upward trend for annual maximum daily discharge during 1964-2009. The downward trends detected during 1916-2009 for the Concho River at San Angelo are not unexpected because of three reservoirs impounding and profoundly regulating streamflow.

A Discussion of Upper Stratospheric Ozone Asymmetry and Ozone Trend Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Jinlong; Cunnold, Derek M.; Wang, Hsiang-Jui; Yang, Eun-Su; Newchurch, Mike J.

2002-01-01

Analyses from SAGE I/II version 6.0 data exhibit upper stratospheric ozone trends which are not significantly different from those in version 5.96 data. Trend calculations show larger downward trends at mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in 1980s. There are also indications of decreasing downward trends with time from 1979 to 1999. We have used a chemical box model and the UARS measurements of long lived gases, CH4, H2O, NO(x), and temperature to show that, with a constant Cl(sub y) trend, a hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry of 1%/decade at 45 deg. around 43 km is expected due to the hemispheric differences of temperature and CH4 during late winter/early. Also ozone trends should have been approximately 1%/decade more negative from 1979-1989 than from 1989-1999 because of the chemical feedbacks. The model results further indicate that both the reported decrease in CH4 and the increase in H2O in HALOE measurements will result in a larger downward ozone trend and a decrease in the hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry.

Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flack, Jessica C.

2017-11-01

Downward causation is the controversial idea that `higher' levels of organization can causally influence behaviour at `lower' levels of organization. Here I propose that we can gain traction on downward causation by being operational and examining how adaptive systems identify regularities in evolutionary or learning time and use these regularities to guide behaviour. I suggest that in many adaptive systems components collectively compute their macroscopic worlds through coarse-graining. I further suggest we move from simple feedback to downward causation when components tune behaviour in response to estimates of collectively computed macroscopic properties. I introduce a weak and strong notion of downward causation and discuss the role the strong form plays in the origins of new organizational levels. I illustrate these points with examples from the study of biological and social systems and deep neural networks. This article is part of the themed issue 'Reconceptualizing the origins of life'.

Coarse-graining as a downward causation mechanism

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Downward causation is the controversial idea that ‘higher’ levels of organization can causally influence behaviour at ‘lower’ levels of organization. Here I propose that we can gain traction on downward causation by being operational and examining how adaptive systems identify regularities in evolutionary or learning time and use these regularities to guide behaviour. I suggest that in many adaptive systems components collectively compute their macroscopic worlds through coarse-graining. I further suggest we move from simple feedback to downward causation when components tune behaviour in response to estimates of collectively computed macroscopic properties. I introduce a weak and strong notion of downward causation and discuss the role the strong form plays in the origins of new organizational levels. I illustrate these points with examples from the study of biological and social systems and deep neural networks. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Reconceptualizing the origins of life’. PMID:29133440

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is

Trends in the quality of water in New Jersey streams, water years 1971–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hickman, R. Edward; Hirsch, Robert M.

2017-02-27

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the Delaware River Basin Commission, trend tests were conducted on selected water-quality characteristics measured at stations on streams in New Jersey during selected periods over water years 1971‒2011. Tests were conducted on 3 nutrients (total nitrogen, filtered nitrate plus nitrite, and total phosphorus) at 28 water-quality stations. At 4 of these stations, tests were also conducted on 3 measures of major ions (specific conductance, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids).Two methods were used to identify trends—Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) models and seasonal rank-sum tests. For this report, the use of WRTDS models included the use of the WRTDS Bootstrap Test (WBT). WRTDS models identified trends in flow-normalized annual concentrations and flow-normalized annual fluxes over water years 1980‒2011 and 2000‒11 for each nutrient, filtered chloride, and total dissolved solids. WRTDS models were developed for each nutrient at the 20 or 21 stations at which streamflow was measured or estimated. Trends in nutrient concentration were reported for these stations; trends in nutrient fluxes were reported only for 15–17 of these stations.The results of WRTDS models for water years 1980‒2011 identified more stations with downward trends in concentrations of either total nitrogen or total phosphorus than upward trends. For total nitrogen, there were downward trends at 9 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For total phosphorus, there were downward trends at 8 stations and an upward trend at 1 station. For filtered nitrate plus nitrite, there were downward trends at 6 stations and upward trends at 6 stations. The result of the trend test in flux for a selected nutrient at a selected station (downward trend, no trend, or upward trend) usually matched the trend result in concentration

MONITORING FOR POLICY-RELEVANT REGIONAL TRENDS OVER TIME

EPA Science Inventory

The term trend describes the continuing directional change in the value of an indicator, generally upward or generally downward. Many policy questions concern trend across a number of sites, such as lakes in a region, rather than trend at a single site. Power to detect regional t...

Downward Slope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

This false-color image from NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity panoramic camera shows a downward view from the rover as it sits at the edge of 'Endurance' crater. The gradual, 'blueberry'-strewn slope before the rover contains an exposed dark layer of rock that wraps around the upper section of the crater. Scientists suspect that this rock layer will provide clues about Mars' distant past. This mosaic image comprises images taken from 10 rover positions using 750, 530 and 430 nanometer filters, acquired on sol 131 (June 6, 2004).

Impact of downward-mixing ozone on surface ozone accumulation in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Ho

2008-04-01

The ozone that initially presents in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer can remain in the nighttime atmosphere and then be carried over to the next morning. Finally, this ozone can be brought to the ground by downward mixing as mixing depth increases during the daytime, thereby increasing surface ozone concentrations. Variation of ozone concentration during each of these periods is investigated in this work. First, ozone concentrations existing in the daily early morning atmosphere at the altitude range of the daily maximum mixing depth (residual ozone concentrations) were measured using tethered ozonesondes on 52 experimental days during 2004-2005 in southern Taiwan. Daily downward-mixing ozone concentrations were calculated by a box model coupling the measured daily residual ozone concentrations and daily mixing depth variations. The ozone concentrations upwind in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer were estimated by the combination of back air trajectory analysis and known previous day's surface ozone distributions. Additionally, the relationship between daily downward-mixing ozone concentration and daily photochemically produced ozone concentration was examined. The latter was calculated by removing the former from daily surface maximum ozone concentration. The measured daily residual ozone concentrations distributed at 12-74 parts per billion (ppb) with an average of 42 +/- 17 ppb are well correlated with the previous upwind ozone concentration (R2 = 0.54-0.65). Approximately 60% of the previous upwind ozone was estimated to be carried over to the next morning and became the observed residual ozone. The daily downward-mixing ozone contributes 48 +/- 18% of the daily surface maximum ozone concentration, indicating that the downward-mixing ozone is as important as daily photochemically produced ozone to daily surface maximum ozone accumulation. The daily downward-mixing ozone is poorly correlated with the daily photochemically produced ozone and

Trends in pesticide concentrations in urban streams in the United States, 1992-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Gilliom, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Pesticide concentration trends in streams dominated by urban land use were assessed using data from 27 urban streams sampled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. The sites were divided into four regions, Northeast, South, Midwest, and West, to examine possible regional patterns. Three partially overlapping 9-year periods (1992-2000, 1996-2004, and 2000-2008) were examined for eight herbicides and one degradation product (simazine, prometon, atrazine, deethylatrazine, metolachlor, trifluralin, pendimethalin, tebuthiuron, and Dacthal), and five insecticides and two degradation products (chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, fipronil sulfide, desulfinylfipronil, and carbaryl). The data were analyzed for trends in concentration using a parametric regression model with seasonality, flow-related variability, and trend, called SEAWAVE-Q. The SEAWAVE-Q model also was used to generate estimated daily concentration percentiles for each analysis period to provide a summary of concentration magnitudes. For herbicides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for simazine were in the South, prometon at some sites in all of the regions, atrazine and deethylatrazine in the South and Midwest, metolachlor in the Midwest and a few sites in the South, pendimethalin at scattered sites in all of the regions, and tebuthiuron in the South and a few sites in the Midwest and West. For insecticides, the largest 90th percentiles of estimated concentrations for diazinon and carbaryl were distributed among various sites in all regions (especially during 1996-2004), and fipronil at isolated sites in all of the regions during 2000-2008. Trend analysis results for the herbicides indicated many significant trends, both upward and downward, with varying patterns depending on period, region, and herbicide. Overall, deethylatrazine showed the most consistent pattern of upward trends, especially in the Northeast (2000-2008), South

Ground-Based Observations of Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes Associated with Downward-Directed Lightning Leaders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belz, J.; Abbasi, R.; Krehbiel, P. R.; LeVon, R.; Remington, J.; Rison, W.; Thomas, R. J.

2017-12-01

and energy measurement, simulation studies indicate that the fluxes and forward-beaming observed are consistent with production in processes such as the relativistic runaway electron avalanche. We conclude that the anomalous triggers observed by TA are most likely downward-directed Terrestrial Gamma Flashes.

An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.

2017-12-01

Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.

Downward Atmospheric Longwave Radiation in the City of Sao Paulo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbaro, Eduardo W.; Oliveira, Amauri P.; Soares, Jacyra

2009-03-11

This work evaluates objectively the consistency and quality of a 9 year dataset based on 5 minute average values of downward longwave atmospheric (LW) emission, shortwave radiation, temperature and relative humidity. All these parameters were observed simultaneously and continuously from 1997 to 2006 in the IAG micrometeorological platform, located at the top of the IAG-USP building. The pyrgeometer dome emission effect was removed using neural network technique reducing the downward long wave atmospheric emission error to 3.5%. The comparison, between the monthly average values of LW emission observed in Sao Paulo and satellite estimates from SRB-NASA project, indicated a verymore » good agreement. Furthermore, this work investigates the performance of 10 empirical expressions to estimate the LW emission at the surface. The comparison between the models indicates that Brunt's one presents the better results, with smallest ''MBE,''''RMSE'' and biggest ''d'' index of agreement, therefore Brunt is the most indicated model to estimate LW emission under clear sky conditions in the city of Sao Paulo.« less

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Trends in the Missouri River Basin, 1993-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Clark, Melanie L.; Rus, David L.; Zelt, Ronald B.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Davis, Jerri V.

2007-01-01

Trends in streamflow and concentration of total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended sediment were determined for the period from 1993 to 2003 at selected stream sites in the Missouri River Basin. Flow-adjusted trends in concentration (the trends that would have occurred in the absence of natural changes in streamflow) and non-flow-adjusted trends in concentration (the overall trends resulting from natural and human factors) were determined. In the analysis of flow-adjusted trends, the removal of streamflow as a variable affecting concentration allowed trends caused by other factors such as implementation of best management practices to be identified. In the analysis of non-flow-adjusted trends, the inclusion of any and all factors affecting concentration allowed trends affecting aquatic ecosystems and the status of streams relative to water-quality standards to be identified. Relations between the flow-adjusted and non-flow-adjusted trends and changes in streamflow, nutrient sources, ground-water inputs, and implementation of management practices also were examined to determine the major factors affecting the trends. From 1993 to 2003, widespread downward trends in streamflow indicated that drought conditions from about 2000 to 2003 led to decreasing streamflow throughout much of the Missouri River Basin. Flow-adjusted trends in nitrite plus nitrate and ammonia concentrations were split nearly equally between nonsignificant and downward; at about one-half of the sites, management practices likely were contributing to measurable decreases in concentrations of nitrite plus nitrate and ammonia. Management practices had less of an effect on concentrations of total nitrogen; downward flow-adjusted trends in total nitrogen concentrations occurred at only 2 of 19 sites. The pattern of non-flow-adjusted trends in nitrite plus nitrate concentrations was similar to the pattern of flow-adjusted trends; non

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Mercury trends in fish from rivers and lakes in the United States, 1969-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalmers, A.T.; Argue, D.M.; Gay, D.A.; Brigham, M.E.; Schmitt, C.J.; Lorenz, D.L.

2011-01-01

A national dataset on concentrations of mercury in fish, compiled mainly from state and federal monitoring programs, was used to evaluate trends in mercury (Hg) in fish from US rivers and lakes. Trends were analyzed on data aggregated by site and by state, using samples of the same fish species and tissue type, and using fish of similar lengths. Site-based trends were evaluated from 1969 to 2005, but focused on a subset of the data from 1969 to 1987. Data aggregated by state were used to evaluate trends in fish Hg concentrations from 1988 to 2005. In addition, the most recent Hg fish data (1996-2005) were compared to wet Hg deposition data from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) over the same period. Downward trends in Hg concentrations in fish from data collected during 1969-1987 exceeded upward trends by a ratio of 6 to 1. Declining Hg accumulation rates in sediment and peat cores reported by many studies during the 1970s and 1980s correspond with the period when the most downward trends in fish Hg concentrations occurred. Downward Hg trends in both sediment cores and fish were also consistent with the implementation of stricter regulatory controls of direct releases of Hg to the atmosphere and surface waters during the same period. The southeastern USA had more upward Hg trends in fish than other regions for both site and state aggregated data. Upward Hg trends in fish from the southeastern USA were associated with increases in wet deposition in the region and may be attributed to a greater influence of global atmospheric Hg emissions in the southeastern USA. No significant trends were found in 62% of the fish species from six states from 1996 to 2005. A lack of Hg trends in fish in the more recent data was consistent with the lack of trends in wet Hg deposition at MDN sites and with relatively constant global emissions during the same time period. Although few significant trends were observed in the more recent Hg concentrations in fish, it is anticipated

Mercury trends in fish from rivers and lakes in the United States, 1969-2005.

PubMed

Chalmers, Ann T; Argue, Denise M; Gay, David A; Brigham, Mark E; Schmitt, Christopher J; Lorenz, David L

2011-04-01

A national dataset on concentrations of mercury in fish, compiled mainly from state and federal monitoring programs, was used to evaluate trends in mercury (Hg) in fish from US rivers and lakes. Trends were analyzed on data aggregated by site and by state, using samples of the same fish species and tissue type, and using fish of similar lengths. Site-based trends were evaluated from 1969 to 2005, but focused on a subset of the data from 1969 to 1987. Data aggregated by state were used to evaluate trends in fish Hg concentrations from 1988 to 2005. In addition, the most recent Hg fish data (1996-2005) were compared to wet Hg deposition data from the Mercury Deposition Network (MDN) over the same period. Downward trends in Hg concentrations in fish from data collected during 1969-1987 exceeded upward trends by a ratio of 6 to 1. Declining Hg accumulation rates in sediment and peat cores reported by many studies during the 1970s and 1980s correspond with the period when the most downward trends in fish Hg concentrations occurred. Downward Hg trends in both sediment cores and fish were also consistent with the implementation of stricter regulatory controls of direct releases of Hg to the atmosphere and surface waters during the same period. The southeastern USA had more upward Hg trends in fish than other regions for both site and state aggregated data. Upward Hg trends in fish from the southeastern USA were associated with increases in wet deposition in the region and may be attributed to a greater influence of global atmospheric Hg emissions in the southeastern USA. No significant trends were found in 62% of the fish species from six states from 1996 to 2005. A lack of Hg trends in fish in the more recent data was consistent with the lack of trends in wet Hg deposition at MDN sites and with relatively constant global emissions during the same time period. Although few significant trends were observed in the more recent Hg concentrations in fish, it is anticipated

Measurement of ocular aberrations in downward gaze using a modified clinical aberrometer

PubMed Central

Ghosh, Atanu; Collins, Michael J; Read, Scott A; Davis, Brett A; Iskander, D. Robert

2011-01-01

Changes in corneal optics have been measured after downward gaze. However, ocular aberrations during downward gaze have not been previously measured. A commercial Shack-Hartmann aberrometer (COAS-HD) was modified by adding a relay lens system and a rotatable beam splitter to allow on-axis aberration measurements in primary gaze and downward gaze with binocular fixation. Measurements with the modified aberrometer (COAS-HD relay system) in primary and downward gaze were validated against a conventional aberrometer. In human eyes, there were significant changes (p<0.05) in defocus C(2,0), primary astigmatism C(2,2) and vertical coma C(3,−1) in downward gaze (25 degrees) compared to primary gaze, indicating the potential influence of biomechanical forces on the optics of the eye in downward gaze. To demonstrate a further clinical application of this modified aberrometer, we measured ocular aberrations when wearing a progressive addition lens (PAL) in primary gaze (0 degree), 15 degrees downward gaze and 25 degrees downward gaze. PMID:21412451

Optical progression characteristics of an interesting natural downward bipolar lightning flash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Luwen; Lu, Weitao; Zhang, Yijun; Wang, Daohong

2015-01-01

high-speed cameras, Lightning Attachment Process Observation Systems, and fast and slow electrical antennas, we documented a downward bipolar lightning flash that contained one first positive stroke with a peak current of 142 kA and five subsequent negative strokes hitting on a 90 m tall structure on 29 July 2010 in Guangzhou City, China. All the six strokes propagated along the same viewed channel established by the first positive return stroke. The leader which preceded the positive return stroke propagated downward without any branches at a two-dimensional (2-D) speed of 2.5 × 106 m/s. An upward connecting leader with a length of about 80 m was observed in response to the downward positive leader. The 10-90% risetimes of the return strokes' optical pulses ranged from 2.2 µs to 3.2 µs, while the widths from the 10% wavefront to the 50% wave tail ranged from 56.5 µs to 83.1 µs, and the half peak widths ranged from 53.4 µs to 81.6 µs. All the return strokes exhibited similar speeds, ranging from 1.0 × 108 m/s to 1.3 × 108 m/s. Each of the return strokes was followed by a continuing current stage (CC). The first positive stroke CC lasted more than 150 ms, much larger than all the subsequent negative stroke CC, ranging from 13 ms to 70 ms.

Practices and attitudes of doctors and patients to downward referral in Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Yu, Wenya; Li, Meina; Nong, Xin; Ding, Tao; Ye, Feng; Liu, Jiazhen; Dai, Zhixing; Zhang, Lulu

2017-01-01

Objectives In China, the rate of downward referral is relatively low, as most people are unwilling to be referred from hospitals to community health systems (CHSs). The aim of this study was to explore the effect of doctors' and patients' practices and attitudes on their willingness for downward referral and the relationship between downward referral and sociodemographic characteristics. Methods Doctors and patients of 13 tertiary hospitals in Shanghai were stratified through random sampling. The questionnaire surveyed their sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes towards CHSs and hospitals, understanding of downward referral, recognition of the community first treatment system, and downward referral practices and willingness. Descriptive statistics, χ2 test and stepwise logistic regression analysis were employed for statistical analysis. Results Only 20.8% (161/773) of doctors were willing to accept downward referrals, although this proportion was higher among patients (37.6%, 326/866). Doctors' willingness was influenced by education, understanding of downward referral, and perception of health resources in hospitals. Patients' willingness was influenced by marital status, economic factors and recognition of the community first treatment system. Well-educated doctors who do not consider downward referral would increase their workloads and those with a more comprehensive understanding of hospitals and downward referral process were more likely to make a downward referral decision. Single-injury patients fully recognising the community first treatment system were more willing to accept downward referral. Patients' willingness was significantly increased if downward referral was cost-saving. A better medical insurance system was another key factor for patients to accept downward referral decisions, especially for the floating population. Conclusions To increase the rate of downward referral, the Chinese government should optimise the current referral system and

National Trends in Substance Use and Use Disorders Among Youth.

PubMed

Han, Beth; Compton, Wilson M; Blanco, Carlos; DuPont, Robert L

2017-09-01

To examine trends in the 12-month prevalence of patterns of substance use and substance use disorders (SUDs) among US youth during 2002 through 2014. Data were from 288,300 persons 12 to 17 years old who participated in the 2002 to 2014 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health. Descriptive analyses and bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions were applied. During 2002 through 2014, among US youth, the 12-month prevalence of any substance use decreased by 27.1% (from 43.2% to 31.5%); among youth users, the 12-month prevalence of SUDs decreased by 28.9% (from 27.0% to 19.2%), and the ratio of substance dependence to abuse decreased from 2.2 to 1.6. Multiple substance use was common and was associated with SUDs. During 2002 through 2014, the prevalence of using marijuana and alcohol only, using marijuana only, and having marijuana use disorders only increased, whereas most other trends were downward. Increases in age at first substance use were associated with downward trends in any substance use. Upward trends in age at first substance use, youth and parental strong disapproval of cigarette use, and youths' seatbelt-wearing prevalence and downward trends in substance use patterns were associated with the downward trend in SUDs among youth users. The 12-month prevalence of any substance use among youth and SUDs among youth users decreased during 2002 through 2014. Postponing age at first use of any substance is critical among youth in the United States. Future research is needed to better understand the interrelations between specific risk and protective factors, age at first substance use, substance use patterns, and SUDs among youth users. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the United States for the Period 1960 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, M. T.; Norton, P. A.

2013-12-01

Long-term trends in mean annual streamflow were examined in the United States for evidence of climate change. Streamflow serves as a useful integrator of many climate factors, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and other hydrologic processes. The U.S. Geological Survey network of gaging stations with continuous record for the period 1960 through 2012 were considered and analyzed using the Kendall Tau statistical method looking for monotonic trends at a p-value greater than or equal to 0.1. Of the stations with 52 years of continuous record, 489 had upward trends while 260 stations had downward trends. Distinct geographic patterns of upward and downward trends emerged. Upward trends predominate in a band of stations extending from the eastern Dakotas through the Midwest to the New England states. Downward trends predominate in the southeastern United States and the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho. Of those stations with upward trends, 56 stations had an increase in the annual mean that more than doubled from 1960 to 2012. The James River in South Dakota and the Red River of the North in North Dakota stand out for the magnitude of increase and the volume of water the increase represents. Of those stations with downward trends, 35 stations had a decrease that was more than half of the annual mean from 1960 to 2012. This presentation will provide details of these trends, the volumes of water represented, the associated precipitation trends and some evidence of land use change.

Practices and attitudes of doctors and patients to downward referral in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Yu, Wenya; Li, Meina; Nong, Xin; Ding, Tao; Ye, Feng; Liu, Jiazhen; Dai, Zhixing; Zhang, Lulu

2017-04-03

In China, the rate of downward referral is relatively low, as most people are unwilling to be referred from hospitals to community health systems (CHSs). The aim of this study was to explore the effect of doctors' and patients' practices and attitudes on their willingness for downward referral and the relationship between downward referral and sociodemographic characteristics. Doctors and patients of 13 tertiary hospitals in Shanghai were stratified through random sampling. The questionnaire surveyed their sociodemographic characteristics, attitudes towards CHSs and hospitals, understanding of downward referral, recognition of the community first treatment system, and downward referral practices and willingness. Descriptive statistics, χ 2 test and stepwise logistic regression analysis were employed for statistical analysis. Only 20.8% (161/773) of doctors were willing to accept downward referrals, although this proportion was higher among patients (37.6%, 326/866). Doctors' willingness was influenced by education, understanding of downward referral, and perception of health resources in hospitals. Patients' willingness was influenced by marital status, economic factors and recognition of the community first treatment system. Well-educated doctors who do not consider downward referral would increase their workloads and those with a more comprehensive understanding of hospitals and downward referral process were more likely to make a downward referral decision. Single-injury patients fully recognising the community first treatment system were more willing to accept downward referral. Patients' willingness was significantly increased if downward referral was cost-saving. A better medical insurance system was another key factor for patients to accept downward referral decisions, especially for the floating population. To increase the rate of downward referral, the Chinese government should optimise the current referral system and conduct universal publicity for

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-01-01

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

Origins and trends in ethane and propane in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derwent, R. G.; Field, R. A.; Dumitrean, P.; Murrells, T. P.; Telling, S. P.

2017-05-01

Continuous, high frequency in situ observations of ethane and propane began in the United Kingdom in 1993 and have continued through to the present day at a range of kerbside, urban background and rural locations. Whilst other monitored C2 - C8 hydrocarbons have shown dramatic declines in concentrations by close to or over an order of magnitude, ethane and propane levels have remained at or close to their 1993 values. Urban ethane sources appear to be dominated by natural gas leakage. Background levels of ethane associated with long range transport are rising. However, natural gas leakage is not the sole source of urban propane. Oil and gas operations lead to elevated propane levels in urban centres when important refinery operations are located nearby. Weekend versus weekday average diurnal curves for ethane and propane at an urban background site in London show the importance of natural gas leakage for both ethane and propane, and road traffic sources for propane. The road traffic source of propane was tentatively identified as arising from petrol-engined motor vehicle refuelling and showed a strong downwards trend at the long-running urban background and rural sites. The natural gas leakage source of ethane and propane in the observations exhibits an upwards trend whereas that in the UK emission inventory trends downwards. Also, inventory emissions for natural gas leakage appeared to be significantly underestimated compared with the observations. In addition, the observed ethane to propane ratio found here for natural gas leakage strongly disagreed with the inventory ratio.

Trends in chemical concentration in sediment cores from three lakes in New Jersey and one lake on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Gary R.; Ayers, Mark A.; Callender, Edward; Van Metre, Peter C.

2003-01-01

Data from this study indicate that changes in population, land use, and chemical use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in concentrations of trace elements and hydrophobic organic compounds. Although downward trends were observed for some constituents in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of most constituents in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core and in the reference lake cores. Similar trends in concentrations of these constituents have been observed in sediment cores from other urban lakes across the United States.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, N.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lasnier, C. J.; Moyer, R. A.; Parks, P. B.; Shiraki, D.

2015-10-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, Nicolas J. C.; Eidietis, N. W.

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. Furthermore, this IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollmann, E. M.; Moyer, R. A.; Commaux, N.

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, Nicolas J. C.; Eidietis, N. W.; ...

2015-10-12

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but thismore » phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. Furthermore, this IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.« less

Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

2010-01-01

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

Downward finger displacement distinguishes Parkinson disease dementia from Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Lieberman, Abraham; Deep, Aman; Shi, Jiong; Dhall, Rohit; Shafer, Saulena; Moguel-Cobos, Guillermo; Dhillon, Ravneet; Frames, Christopher W; McCauley, Margaret

2018-02-01

Purpose/Aim of the study: To study finger displacement in patients with Parkinson disease dementia (PDD) and in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD). We examined 56 patients with PDD and 35 with AD. Patients were examined during their regular outpatient clinic visit. Finger displacement was measured by observers not actively involved in the study using a creative grid ruler for all PDD and AD patients. Finger displacement was examined by asking patients to point their index fingers toward the grid ruler with the nails facing upward. Patients were asked to maintain the pointing position for 15 s. After 15 s, patients were asked to close their eyes for another 15 s while maintaining the same position. A positive result was downward index finger displacement of ≥5 cm within the 15-second time window with eyes closed. Of the 56 PDD patients, 53 had bilateral finger displacement of >5 cm. In comparison, of the 35 AD patients, only 1 patient had minimal displacement. Results of the non-invasive finger displacement test may provide insight, on an outpatient basis, of the integrity of subcortical-cortical circuits. Downward finger displacement, especially bilateral downward displacement, may signal the extensive disruption of subcortical-cortical circuits that occurs in PDD patients. AChE: acetylcholinesterase; AD: Alzheimer disease; DLB: dementia with Lewy bodies; ET: essential tremor; MDS-UPDRS: Movement Disorder Society-sponsored Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale; MMSE: Mini-Mental State Examination; PD: Parkinson disease; PDD: Parkinson disease dementia.

Water quality trends in the Blackwater River watershed, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Jessica; Welsh, Stuart A.; Anderson, James T.; Fortney, Ronald H.

2015-01-01

An understanding of historic and current water quality is needed to manage and improve aquatic communities within the Blackwater River watershed, WV. The Blackwater River, which historically offered an excellent Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) fishery, has been affected by logging, coal mining, use of off-road vehicles, and land development. Using information-theoretic methods, we examined trends in water quality at 12 sites in the watershed for the 14 years of 1980–1993. Except for Beaver Creek, downward trends in acidity and upward trends in alkalinity, conductivity, and hardness were consistent with decreases in hydrogen ion concentration. Water-quality trends for Beaver Creek were inconsistent with the other sites and reflect ongoing coal-mining influences. Dissolved oxygen trended downward, possibly due to natural conditions, but remained above thresholds that would be detrimental to aquatic life. Water quality changed only slightly within the watershed from 1980–1993, possibly reflecting few changes in development and land uses during this time. These data serve as a baseline for future water-quality studies and may help to inform management planning.

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Meier, Walter N

2018-05-28

As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Can upbeat nystagmus increase in downward, but not upward, gaze?

PubMed

Kim, Hyun-Ah; Yi, Hyon-Ah; Lee, Hyung

2012-04-01

Upbeat nystagmus (UBN) is typically increased with upward gaze and decreased with downward gaze. We describe a patient with acute multiple sclerosis who developed primary position UBN with a linear slow phase waveform, in which the velocity of nystagmus was intensified in downward gaze and decreased during upward gaze. Brain MRI showed high signal lesions in the paramedian dorsal area of the caudal medulla encompassing the most caudal part of the perihypoglossal nuclei. Clinicians should be aware of possibility of a caudal medullary lesion in a patient with UBN, especially when the velocity of the UBN is increased in downward gaze. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in atmospheric evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Emma L.; Blyth, Eleanor M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Finch, Jon; Rudd, Alison C.

2017-02-01

Observations of climate are often available on very different spatial scales from observations of the natural environments and resources that are affected by climate change. In order to help bridge the gap between these scales using modelling, a new dataset of daily meteorological variables was created at 1 km resolution over Great Britain for the years 1961-2012, by interpolating coarser resolution climate data and including the effects of local topography. These variables were used to calculate atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) at the same spatial and temporal resolution. Two functions that represent AED were chosen: one is a standard form of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and the other is a derived PET measure used by hydrologists that includes the effect of water intercepted by the canopy (PETI). Temporal trends in these functions were calculated, with PET found to be increasing in all regions, and at an overall rate of 0.021 ± 0.021 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain. PETI was found to be increasing at a rate of 0.019 ± 0.020 mm day-1 decade-1 in Great Britain, but this was not statistically significant. However, there was a trend in PETI in England of 0.023 ± 0.023 mm day-1 decade-1. The trends were found to vary by season, with spring PET increasing by 0.043 ± 0.019 mm day-1 decade-1 (0.038 ± 0.018 mm day-1 decade-1 when the interception correction is included) in Great Britain, while there is no statistically significant trend in other seasons. The trends were attributed analytically to trends in the climate variables; the overall positive trend was predominantly driven by rising air temperature, although rising specific humidity had a negative effect on the trend. Recasting the analysis in terms of relative humidity revealed that the overall effect is that falling relative humidity causes the PET to rise. Increasing downward short- and longwave radiation made an overall positive contribution to the PET trend, while decreasing wind speed made a

Downward Migration of Coastal Conifers as a Response to Recent Land Emergence in Eastern Hudson Bay, Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bégin, Yves; Bérubé, Dominique; Grégoire, Martin

1993-07-01

Postglacial uplift in the eastern Hudson Bay area is among the most rapid in the world (300 m during the last 8000 yr). Although emergence curves based on 14 C-dated raised shorelines give a consistent basis for modeling relative sea-level changes, such a low-resolution dating method is inappropriate for estimating trends over recent decades. A major downward displacement of white spruce ( Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) and tamarack ( Larix laricina (DuRoi) K. Koch) occurred on protected shores as a response to shoreline retreat during this century. Analysis of the age distribution of trees indicates a progradation of white spruce and tamarack on gently sloping terrain ranging from 1.3 and 2.6 cm/yr, respectively, toward the sea. Improvement of climatic conditions during the 20th century favored such expansion which was probably faster than the real land emergence rates, but recent episodes of high water levels caused regression of forest margins over the highly exposed shores. Nevertheless, the downward trend of the treeline over this century substantiates the projections of 14C-dated coastal emergence curves during the modern period (1.0 to 1.3 cm/yr) by providing an estimate of the maximum rates of shoreline retreat.

Downward continuation of airborne gravity data by means of the change of boundary approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansi, A. H.; Capponi, M.; Sampietro, D.

2018-03-01

Within the modelling of gravity data, a common practice is the upward/downward continuation of the signal, i.e. the process of continuing the gravitational signal in the vertical direction away or closer to the sources, respectively. The gravity field, being a potential field, satisfies the Laplace's equation outside the masses and this means that it allows to unambiguously perform this analytical continuation only in a source-free domain. The analytical continuation problem has been solved both in the space and spectral domains by exploiting different algorithms. As well known, the downward continuation operator, differently from the upward one, is an unstable operator, due to its spectral characteristics similar to those of a high-pass filter, and several regularization methods have been proposed in order to stabilize it. In this work, an iterative procedure to downward/upward continue the gravity field observations, acquired at different altitudes, is proposed. This methodology is based on the change of boundary principle and it has been expressively thought for aerogravimetric observations for geophysical exploration purposes. Within this field of application, usually several simplifications can be applied, basically due to the specific characteristics of the airborne surveys which are usually flown at almost constant altitude as close as possible to the terrain. For instance, these characteristics, as shown in the present work, allow to perform the downward continuation without the need of any regularization. The goodness of the proposed methodology has been evaluated by means of a numerical test on real data, acquired in the South of Australia. The test shows that it is possible to move the aerogravimetric data, acquired along tracks with a maximum height difference of about 250 m, with accuracies of the order of 10^{-3} mGal.

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.; Yoon, J.; Tost, H.; Georgoulias, A. K.; Astitha, M.

2015-05-01

The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from observations and results from simulations with the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite sensor, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) observations. Thanks to an additional simulation without any change in emissions, it is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the emissions, while over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological changes play a major role. Over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends. Additionally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content.

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoui, Lahouari

2012-01-01

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

PubMed

Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

2014-07-01

On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend

Comparison of Upward and Downward Translocation of 14C From a Single Leaf of Sunflower

PubMed Central

Shiroya, Michi

1968-01-01

When single leaves attached at a given node were allowed to carry on photosynthesis in 14CO2 for 30 min, younger plants showed a higher proportion of upward translocation than did older plants. Downward translocation of 14C-photosynthate was stimulated by ATP pre-treatment of the translocating leaf, while upward translocation was not affected by ATP. A similar phenomenon was observed in the translocation of 14C-sucrose infiltrated into a leaf with or without ATP. Downward translocation of photosynthate was inhibited by DNP pre-treatment of a fed leaf. Upward translocation, however, was not affected by DNP. Thirty min after infiltration of 14C-glucose into a leaf, almost all the 14C translocated upwards was found to be in the form of glucose, while a great part of the 14C translocated downwards was in the form of sucrose. In the case of translocation of infiltrated 14C-sucrose, 14C found both above and below the fed leaf was mainly in the form of sucrose. PMID:16656944

On the Nocturnal Downward and Westward Equatorial Ionospheric Plasma Drifts During the 17 March 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagiya, Mala S.; Vichare, Geeta; Sinha, A. K.; Sripathi, S.

2018-02-01

During quiet period, the nocturnal equatorial ionospheric plasma drifts eastward in the zonal direction and downward in the vertical direction. This quiet time drift pattern could be understood through dynamo processes in the nighttime equatorial ionosphere. The present case study reports the nocturnal simultaneous occurrence of the vertically downward and zonally westward plasma drifts over the Indian latitudes during the geomagnetic storm of 17 March 2015. After 17:00 UT ( 22:10 local time), the vertical plasma drift became downward and coincided with the westward zonal drift, a rarely observed feature of low latitude plasma drifts. The vertical drift turned upward after 18:00 UT, while the zonal drift became eastward. We mainly emphasize here the distinct bipolar type variations of vertical and zonal plasma drifts observed around 18:00 UT. We explain the vertical plasma drift in terms of the competing effects between the storm time prompt penetration and disturbance dynamo electric fields. Whereas, the westward drift is attributed to the storm time local electrodynamical changes mainly through the disturbance dynamo field in addition to the vertical Pedersen current arising from the spatial (longitudinal) gradient of the field aligned Pedersen conductivity.

Examining the contribution of the observed global warming trend to the California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,

2014-01-01

While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the

Spatio-temporal analysis of recent groundwater-level trends in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui, Duong Du; Kawamura, Akira; Tong, Thanh Ngoc; Amaguchi, Hideo; Nakagawa, Naoko

2012-12-01

A groundwater-monitoring network has been in operation in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, since 1995. Trends in groundwater level (1995-2009) in 57 wells in the Holocene unconfined aquifer and 63 wells in the Pleistocene confined aquifer were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. At each well, 17 time series (e.g. annual, seasonal, monthly), computed from the original data, were analyzed. Analysis of the annual groundwater-level means revealed that 35 % of the wells in the unconfined aquifer showed downward trends, while about 21 % showed upward trends. On the other hand, confined-aquifer groundwater levels experienced downward trends in almost all locations. Spatial distributions of trends indicated that the strongly declining trends (>0.3 m/year) were mainly found in urban areas around Hanoi where there is intensive abstraction of groundwater. Although the trend results for most of the 17 time series at a given well were quite similar, different trend patterns were detected in several. The findings reflect unsustainable groundwater development and the importance of maintaining groundwater monitoring and a database in the Delta, particularly in urban areas.

A Constrained Scheme for High Precision Downward Continuation of Potential Field Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jun; Meng, Xiaohong; Zhou, Zhiwen

2018-04-01

To further improve the accuracy of the downward continuation of potential field data, we present a novel constrained scheme in this paper combining the ideas of the truncated Taylor series expansion, the principal component analysis, the iterative continuation and the prior constraint. In the scheme, the initial downward continued field on the target plane is obtained from the original measured field using the truncated Taylor series expansion method. If the original field was with particularly low signal-to-noise ratio, the principal component analysis is utilized to suppress the noise influence. Then, the downward continued field is upward continued to the plane of the prior information. If the prior information was on the target plane, it should be upward continued over a short distance to get the updated prior information. Next, the difference between the calculated field and the updated prior information is calculated. The cosine attenuation function is adopted to get the scope of constraint and the corresponding modification item. Afterward, a correction is performed on the downward continued field on the target plane by adding the modification item. The correction process is iteratively repeated until the difference meets the convergence condition. The accuracy of the proposed constrained scheme is tested on synthetic data with and without noise. Numerous model tests demonstrate that downward continuation using the constrained strategy can yield more precise results compared to other downward continuation methods without constraints and is relatively insensitive to noise even for downward continuation over a large distance. Finally, the proposed scheme is applied to real magnetic data collected within the Dapai polymetallic deposit from the Fujian province in South China. This practical application also indicates the superiority of the presented scheme.

Potential for downward leakage to the Floridan Aquifer, Green Swamp area, central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grubb, H.F.

1977-01-01

A qualitative evaluation of the potential for downward leakage from the surficial sand aquifer to the underlying Floridan aquifer was made for the Green Swamp area (about 870 sq mi) in central Florida. Downward leakage, or recharge, is limited under natural conditions owing to the nearness to land surface of the potentiometric surface of both the sand aquifer and the underlying Floridan aquifer. Continuous cores of the unconsolidated section were obtained at 74 sites in the study area and were evaluated for downward leakage potential based on grain-size distribution. Sand percentage was estimated for each interval or bed from microscopic examination of the core samples. The four maps prepared from this data show sand thickness, clay thickness, relative vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining beds and the relative potential for downward leakage. About 20 percent (178 sq mi) of the area classified has a relatively good potential for downward leakage; almost 50 percent of the area has a relatively poor potential. (Woodard-USGS)

Trends in pesticide concentrations in streams of the western United States, 1993-2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, H.M.; Domagalski, Joseph L.; Saleh, D.K.

2011-01-01

Trends in pesticide concentrations for 15 streams in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho were determined for the organophosphate insecticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon and the herbicides atrazine, s-ethyl diproplythiocarbamate (EPTC), metolachlor, simazine, and trifluralin. A parametric regression model was used to account for flow, seasonality, and antecedent hydrologic conditions and thereby estimate trends in pesticide concentrations in streams arising from changes in use amount and application method in their associated catchments. Decreasing trends most often were observed for diazinon, and reflect the shift to alternative pesticides by farmers, commercial applicators, and homeowners because of use restrictions and product cancelation. Consistent trends were observed for several herbicides, including upward trends in simazine at urban-influenced sites from 2000 to 2005, and downward trends in atrazine and EPTC at agricultural sites from the mid-1990s to 2005. The model provided additional information about pesticide occurrence and transport in the modeled streams. Two examples are presented and briefly discussed: (1) timing of peak concentrations for individual compounds varied greatly across this geographic gradient because of different application periods and the effects of local rain patterns, irrigation, and soil drainage and (2) reconstructions of continuous diazinon concentrations at sites in California are used to evaluate compliance with total maximum daily load targets.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Trend analysis of ground-water levels and spring discharge in the Yucca Mountain Region, Nevada and California, 1960-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fenelon, Joseph M.; Moreo, Michael T.

2002-01-01

Ground-water level and discharge data from 1960 to 2000 were analyzed for the Yucca Mountain region of southern Nevada and eastern California. Included were water-level data from 37 wells and a fissure (Devils Hole) and discharge data from five springs and from a flowing well. Data were evaluated for variability and for upward, downward, or cyclic trends with an emphasis on the period 1992-2000. Potential factors causing trends in water levels and discharge include ground-water withdrawal, infiltration of precipitation, earthquakes, evapotranspiration, barometric pressure, and earth tides. Statistically significant trends in ground-water levels or spring discharge from 1992 to 2000 were upward at 12 water-level sites and downward at 14 water-level sites and 1 spring-discharge site. In general, the magnitude of the change in water level from 1992 to 2000 was small (less than 2 feet), except where influenced by pumping or local effects such as possible equilibration from well construction or diversion of nearby surface water. Seasonal trends are superimposed on some of the long-term (1992-2000) trends in water levels and discharge. Factors causing seasonal trends include barometric pressure, evapotranspiration, and pumping. The magnitude of seasonal change in water level can vary from as little as 0.05 foot in regional aquifers to greater than 5 feet in monitoring wells near large supply wells in the Amargosa Farms area. Three major episodes of earthquake activity affected water levels in wells in the Yucca Mountain region between 1992 and 2000: the Landers/Little Skull Mountain, Northridge, and Hector Mine earthquakes. The Landers/Little Skull Mountain earthquakes, in June 1992, had the largest observed effect on water levels and on discharge during the study period. Monthly measurements of wells in the study network show that earthquakes affected water levels from a few tenths of a foot to 3.5 feet. In the Ash Meadows area, water levels remained relatively stable

Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi

2018-02-01

Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.

Northern Hemisphere climate trends in reanalysis and forecast model predictions: The 500 hPa annual means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordi, I.; Fraedrich, K.; Sutera, A.

2010-06-01

The lead time dependent climates of the ECMWF weather prediction model, initialized with ERA-40 reanalysis, are analysed using 44 years of day-1 to day-10 forecasts of the northern hemispheric 500-hPa geopotential height fields. The study addresses the question whether short-term tendencies have an impact on long-term trends. Comparing climate trends of ERA-40 with those of the forecasts, it seems that the forecast model rapidly loses the memory of initial conditions creating its own climate. All forecast trends show a high degree of consistency. Comparison results suggest that: (i) Only centers characterized by an upward trend are statistical significant when increasing the lead time. (ii) In midilatitudes an upward trend larger than the one observed in the reanalysis characterizes the forecasts, while in the tropics there is a good agreement. (iii) The downward trend in reanalysis at high latitudes characterizes also the day-1 forecast which, however, increasing lead time approaches zero.

An overview of time trends in organic contaminant concentrations in marine mammals: going up or down?

PubMed

Law, Robin J

2014-05-15

In this article I review recent trends reported in the literature from 2008 to date for organic contaminant concentrations in marine mammal tissues worldwide, in order to get an idea of where we stand currently in relation to the control of hazardous substances. For many contaminants which have been subject to regulation regarding their production and use (e.g. organochlorine pesticides, PBDE and HBCD flame retardants, butyltins) trends are downwards. For perfluorinated compounds, trends are more mixed. For dioxins, furans and dioxin-like CBs, there are no recent data, for either concentrations or trends. For CBs overall, earlier downward trends in concentration in UK harbour porpoises following regulation beginning in the 1980s have stalled, and remain at toxicologically significant levels. This raises concerns for killer whales and bottlenose dolphins who, because of their larger size and greater bioaccumulation potential, have higher levels still, often far above accepted toxicological threshold values. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-based observations of nitrogen dioxide: Trends in anthropogenic emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Ashley Ray

Space-based instruments provide routine global observations, offering a unique perspective on the spatial and temporal variation of atmospheric constituents. In this dissertation, trends in regional-scale anthropogenic nitrogen oxide emissions (NO + NO2 ≡ NOx) are investigated using high resolution observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). By comparing trends in OMI observations with those from ground-based measurements and an emissions inventory, I show that satellite observations are well-suited for capturing changes in emissions over time. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the observations provide a uniquely complete view of regional-scale changes in the spatial patterns of NO 2. I show that NOx concentrations have decreased significantly in urban regions of the United States between 2005 and 2011, with an average reduction of 32 ± 7%. By examining day-of-week and interannual trends, I show that these reductions can largely be attributed to improved emission control technology in the mobile source fleet; however, I also show that the economic downturn of the late 2000's has impacted emissions. Additionally, I describe the development of a high-resolution retrieval of NO2 from OMI observations known as the Berkeley High Resolution (BEHR) retrieval. The BEHR product uses higher spatial and temporal resolution terrain and profile parameters than the operational retrievals and is shown to provide a more quantitative measure of tropospheric NO2 column density. These results have important implications for future retrievals of NO2 from space-based observations.

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Interpreting the Latitudinal Structure of Differences Between Modeled and Observed Temperature Trends (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, B. D.; Mears, C. A.; Gleckler, P. J.; Solomon, S.; Wigley, T.; Arblaster, J.; Cai, W.; Gillett, N. P.; Ivanova, D. P.; Karl, T. R.; Lanzante, J.; Meehl, G. A.; Stott, P.; Taylor, K. E.; Thorne, P.; Wehner, M. F.; Zou, C.

2010-12-01

We perform the most comprehensive comparison to date of simulated and observed temperature trends. Comparisons are made for different latitude bands, timescales, and temperature variables, using information from a multi-model archive and a variety of observational datasets. Our focus is on temperature changes in the lower troposphere (TLT), the mid- to upper troposphere (TMT), and at the sea surface (SST). For SST, TLT, and TMT, trend comparisons over the satellite era (1979 to 2009) always yield closest agreement in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There are pronounced discrepancies in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere: in both regions, the multi-model average warming is consistently larger than observed. At high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, the observed tropospheric warming exceeds multi-model average trends. The similarity in the latitudinal structure of this discrepancy pattern across different temperature variables and observational data sets suggests that these trend differences are real, and are not due to residual inhomogeneities in the observations. The interpretation of these results is hampered by the fact that the CMIP-3 multi-model archive analyzed here convolves errors in key external forcings with errors in the model response to forcing. Under a "forcing error" interpretation, model-average temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics are biased warm because many models neglect (and/or inaccurately specify) changes in stratospheric ozone and the indirect effects of aerosols. An alternative "response error" explanation for the model trend errors is that there are fundamental problems with model clouds and ocean heat uptake over the Southern Ocean. When SST changes are compared over the longer period 1950 to 2009, there is close agreement between simulated and observed trends poleward of 50°S. This result is difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that the trend discrepancies over 1979 to 2009 are primarily

Upward and downward facing high mass flux spray cooling with additives: A novel technique to enhance the heat removal rate at high initial surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pati, A. R.; Kumar, A.; Mohapatra, S. S.

2018-06-01

The objective of the current work is to enhance the spray cooling by changing the orientation of the nozzle with different additives (acetone, methanol, ethanol, benzene, n-hexane, tween 20 and salt) in water. The experiments are carried out by upward, downward and both upward and downward facing sprays. The optimization result depicts that the spray produced by upward facing spray gives higher heat flux than the downward facing spray and also cooling by both the upward and downward facing spray simultaneously produces better result than the individual. Further experiments with both upward and downward facing spray by using different coolants reveal that in case of cooling by ethanol (500 ppm) + water mixture, the maximum enhancement of surface heat flux ( 2.57 MW/m2) and cooling rate (204 °C/s) is observed. However, the minimum surface heat flux is achieved in case of methanol (100 ppm) + water due to higher contact angle (710) among all the considered coolants.

Trends in exposure to respirable crystalline silica (1986-2014) in Australian mining.

PubMed

Peters, Susan; Vermeulen, Roel; Fritschi, Lin; Musk, Aw Bill; Reid, Alison; de Klerk, Nicholas

2017-08-01

Respirable crystalline silica (RCS) has been associated with severe health risks. Exposures in Western Australia (WA) have been typically high in hard-rock mining and have reduced substantially since the mid-1900s. We described trends in RCS exposure in WA miners over the past 30 years. A total of 79 445 reported personal RCS exposure measurements, covering the years 1986-2014, were examined. Mixed-effects models were applied to estimate RCS exposure levels, including spline terms to estimate a time trend. An overall downward trend of about -8% per year was observed for RCS exposures in WA mining. Highest RCS exposure levels were modeled for base metal mining and exploration settings. Drilling occupations were among the highest exposed jobs. RCS exposure levels have fallen considerably in the last three decades. However, there are still mining occupations that may need further attention to avoid adverse health effects in these workers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A trend analysis of surgical operations under a global payment system in Tehran, Iran (2005–2015)

PubMed Central

Goudari, Faranak Behzadi; Rashidian, Arash; Arab, Mohammad; Mahmoudi, Mahmood

2018-01-01

Background Global payment system is a first example of per-case payment system that contains 60 commonly used surgical operations for which payment is based on the average cost per case in Iran. Objective The aim of the study was to determine the amount of reduction, increase or no change in the trend of global operations. Methods In this retrospective longitudinal study, data on the 60 primary global surgery codes was gathered from Tehran Health Insurance Organization within the ten-year period of 2005–2015 separately, for each month. Out of 60 surgery codes, only acceptable data for 46 codes were available based on the insurance documents sent by medical centers. A quantitative analysis of time series through Regression Analysis Model using STATA software v.11 was performed. Results Some global surgery codes had an upward trend and some were downwards. Of N Codes, N83, N20, N28, N63, and N93 had an upward trend (p<0.05) and N32, N43, N81 and N90 showed a significant downward trend (p<0.05). Similarly, all H Codes except for H18 had a significant upward trend (p<0.000). As such, K Codes including K45, K56 and K81 had an increasing movement. S Codes also experienced both increasing and decreasing trends. However, none of the O Codes changed according to time. Other global surgical codes like C61, E07, M51, L60, J98 (p<0.000), I84 (p<0.031) and I86 (p<0.000) shown upward and downward trends. Total global surgeries trend was significantly upwards (B=24.26109, p<0.000). Conclusion The varying trend of global surgeries can partly reflect the behavior of service providers in order to increase their profits and minimize their costs. PMID:29765576

Correlation of white female breast cancer incidence trends with nitrogen dioxide emission levels and motor vehicle density patterns.

PubMed

Chen, Fan; Bina, William F

2012-02-01

The long-term trend of female breast cancer incidence rates in the United States and some European countries demonstrates a similar pattern: an increasing trend in the last century followed by a declining trend in this century. The well-known risk factors cannot explain this trend. We compared the breast cancer incidence trends obtained from SEER data with the trend of nitrogen dioxides (NOx) emission and monitoring data as well as motor vehicle density data. The upward followed by downward trend of NOx is similar to the breast cancer incidence trend but with an offset of 20 years earlier. Motor vehicles are the major source of NOx emissions. The geographic distribution of motor vehicles density in 1970 in the observed US counties is positively correlated with breast cancer incidence rates (R(2) 0.8418, the correlation coefficient = 0.9175) in 1980-1995. Because both the time trend and geographic pattern are associated with breast cancer incidence rates, further studies on the relationship between breast cancer and air pollution are needed.

Understanding Southern Ocean SST Trends in Historical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle

2017-04-01

Historical simulations with CMIP5 global climate models do not reproduce the observed 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) cooling, and most ensemble members predict gradual warming around Antarctica. In order to understand this discrepancy and the mechanisms behind the SO cooling, we analyze output from 19 CMIP5 models. For each ensemble member we estimate the characteristic responses of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions and linear convolution theory, we reconstruct the original CMIP5 simulations of 1979-2014 SO SST trends. We recover the CMIP5 ensemble mean trend, capture the intermodel spread, and reproduce very well the behavior of individual models. We thus suggest that GHG forcing and the SAM are major drivers of the simulated 1979-2014 SO SST trends. In consistence with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole, our results imply that the summer (DJF) and fall (MAM) SAM exert a particularly important effect on the SO SST. In some CMIP5 models the SO SST response to SAM partially counteracts the warming due to GHG forcing, while in other ensemble members the SAM-induced SO SST trends complement the warming effect of GHG forcing. The compensation between GHG and SAM-induced SO SST anomalies is model-dependent and is determined by multiple factors. Firstly, CMIP5 models have different characteristic SST step response functions to SAM. Kostov et al. (2016) relate these differences to biases in the models' climatological SO temperature gradients. Secondly, many CMIP5 historical simulations underestimate the observed positive trends in the DJF and MAM seasonal SAM indices. We show that this affects the models' ability to reproduce the observed SO cooling. Last but not least, CMIP5 models differ in their SO SST step response functions to GHG forcing. Understanding the diverse behavior of CMIP5 models helps shed light on the physical processes

Prediction of Three-Dimensional Downward Flame Spread Characteristics over Poly(methyl methacrylate) Slabs in Different Pressure Environments.

PubMed

Zhao, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Dong; Liu, Xue-Qiang; Lu, Lei; Wu, Zhi-Bo; Peng, Fei; Ju, Xiao-Yu; Yang, Li-Zhong

2016-11-22

The present study is aimed at predicting downward flame spread characteristics over poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) with different sample dimensions in different pressure environments. Three-dimensional (3-D) downward flame spread experiments on free PMMA slabs were conducted at five locations with different altitudes, which provide different pressures. Pressure effects on the flame spread rate, profile of pyrolysis front and flame height were analyzed at all altitudes. The flame spread rate in the steady-state stage was calculated based on the balance on the fuel surface and fuel properties. Results show that flame spread rate increases exponentially with pressure, and the exponent of pressure further shows an increasing trend with the thickness of the sample. The angle of the pyrolysis front emerged on sample residue in the width direction, which indicates a steady-burning stage, varies clearly with sample thicknesses and ambient pressures. A global non-dimensional equation was proposed to predict the variation tendency of the angle of the pyrolysis front with pressure and was found to fit well with the measured results. In addition, the dependence of average flame height on mass burning rate, sample dimension and pressure was proposed based on laminar diffusion flame theory. The fitted exponent of experimental data is 1.11, which is close to the theoretical value.

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result

[Drowning mortality trends in children younger than 5 years old in Mexico, 1979-2008].

PubMed

Báez-Báez, Guadalupe Laura; Orozco-Valerio, María de Jesús; Dávalos-Guzmán, Julio César; Méndez-Magaña, Ana Cecilia; Celis, Alfredo

2012-01-01

To describe mortality trends from drowning in children younger than 5 years old. Mortality records of children younger than 5 years old were obtained from the National Health Information (SINAIS) system of Mexico from 1979 to 2008. Cause of death by asphyxia was established according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 9th and 10th). We analyzed age, sex, federal state, year and place where the event occurred. Fatal drowning diminished from 7.64 in 1979 to 3.59 deaths per 100,000 in 2008. This trend was observed throughout the assessment period and in all federal states. Children younger than 2 years showed the highest rate of death. Mortality was higher in males than females (1.7:1). A great proportion of events happen at home. Drowning mortality among children less than 5 years old in Mexico shows a downward trend in all states.

Levitation of heavy particles against gravity in asymptotically downward flows.

PubMed

Angilella, Jean-Régis; Case, Daniel J; Motter, Adilson E

2017-03-01

In the fluid transport of particles, it is generally expected that heavy particles carried by a laminar fluid flow moving downward will also move downward. We establish a theory to show, however, that particles can be dynamically levitated and lifted by interacting vortices in such flows, thereby moving against gravity and the asymptotic direction of the flow, even when they are orders of magnitude denser than the fluid. The particle levitation is rigorously demonstrated for potential flows and supported by simulations for viscous flows. We suggest that this counterintuitive effect has potential implications for the air-transport of water droplets and the lifting of sediments in water.

Levitation of heavy particles against gravity in asymptotically downward flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angilella, Jean-Régis; Case, Daniel J.; Motter, Adilson E.

2017-03-01

In the fluid transport of particles, it is generally expected that heavy particles carried by a laminar fluid flow moving downward will also move downward. We establish a theory to show, however, that particles can be dynamically levitated and lifted by interacting vortices in such flows, thereby moving against gravity and the asymptotic direction of the flow, even when they are orders of magnitude denser than the fluid. The particle levitation is rigorously demonstrated for potential flows and supported by simulations for viscous flows. We suggest that this counterintuitive effect has potential implications for the air-transport of water droplets and the lifting of sediments in water.

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Downward trends in surgical site and urinary tract infections after cesarean delivery in a French surveillance network, 1997-2003.

PubMed

Vincent, Agnès; Ayzac, Louis; Girard, Raphaële; Caillat-Vallet, Emmanuelle; Chapuis, Catherine; Depaix, Florence; Dumas, Anne-Marie; Gignoux, Chantal; Haond, Catherine; Lafarge-Leboucher, Joëlle; Launay, Carine; Tissot-Guerraz, Françoise; Fabry, Jacques

2008-03-01

To evaluate whether the adjusted rates of surgical site infection (SSI) and urinary tract infection (UTI) after cesarean delivery decrease in maternity units that perform active healthcare-associated infection surveillance. Trend analysis by means of multiple logistic regression. A total of 80 maternity units participating in the Mater Sud-Est surveillance network. A total of 37,074 cesarean deliveries were included in the surveillance from January 1, 1997, through December 31, 2003. We used a logistic regression model to estimate risk-adjusted post-cesarean delivery infection odds ratios. The variables included were the maternity units' annual rate of operative procedures, the level of dispensed neonatal care, the year of delivery, maternal risk factors, and the characteristics of cesarean delivery. The trend of risk-adjusted odds ratios for SSI and UTI during the study period was studied by linear regression. The crude rates of SSI and UTI after cesarean delivery were 1.5% (571 of 37,074 patients) and 1.8% (685 of 37,074 patients), respectively. During the study period, the decrease in SSI and UTI adjusted odds ratios was statistically significant (R=-0.823 [P=.023] and R=-0.906 [P=.005], respectively). Reductions of 48% in the SSI rate and 52% in the UTI rate were observed in the maternity units. These unbiased trends could be related to progress in preventive practices as a result of the increased dissemination of national standards and a collaborative surveillance with benchmarking of rates.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Recent Trends in Burn Epidemiology Worldwide: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Smolle, Christian; Cambiaso-Daniel, Janos; Forbes, Abigail A.; Wurzer, Paul; Hundeshagen, Gabriel; Branski, Ludwik K.; Huss, Fredrik; Kamolz, Lars-Peter

2017-01-01

Burn injuries have been more prevalent among low socioeconomic populations and in less developed regions. Incredible advances in burn care and social development over the recent decades, however, should have placed the incidence and severity of burns in a downwards trend. The aim of this review was to give an overview on current trends in burn epidemiology across the world. Also the socioeconomic development in countries that have published epidemiological data used in this study has been taken into account when comparing the results. There was a worldwide downwards trend of burn incidence, burn severity, length of hospital stay, and mortality rate. These findings were particularly pronounced in very highly developed countries. Data from highly and medium developed countries were more heterogeneous. No studies could be obtained from low developed countries. Comparisons between the different studies were compromised by the fact that studies emerged from specialized facilities on one hand and general hospitals on the other. Analyzed studies were also frequently focusing on limited patient populations such as “children” or “elderly”. Our findings indicate the need for an international burn database with a minimal data-set in order to obtain objective and comparable results in respect of burn epidemiology. PMID:27600982

Recent trends in burn epidemiology worldwide: A systematic review.

PubMed

Smolle, Christian; Cambiaso-Daniel, Janos; Forbes, Abigail A; Wurzer, Paul; Hundeshagen, Gabriel; Branski, Ludwik K; Huss, Fredrik; Kamolz, Lars-Peter

2017-03-01

Burns have been more prevalent among low socioeconomic populations and in less developed regions. Incredible advances in burn care and social development over the recent decades, however, should have placed the incidence and severity of burns in a downwards trend. The aim of this review was to give an overview on current trends in burn epidemiology across the world. Also the socioeconomic development in countries that have published epidemiological data used in this study has been taken into account when comparing the results. There was a worldwide downwards trend of burn incidence, burn severity, length of hospital stay, and mortality rate. These findings were particularly pronounced in very highly developed countries. Data from highly and medium developed countries were more heterogeneous. No studies could be obtained from low and middle income countries. Comparisons between the different studies were compromised by the fact that studies emerged from specialized facilities on one hand and general hospitals on the other. Analyzed studies were also frequently focusing on limited patient populations such as "children" or "elderly". Our findings indicate the need for an international burn database with a minimal data-set in order to obtain objective and comparable results in respect of burn epidemiology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Statistical trend analysis of groundwater data at Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhinge, D; Patel, J.; Skibinski, J.N.

1994-12-31

Statistical regression techniques were used to characterize temporal trends in groundwater monitoring data collected between 1980 and 1994 at Former Area P Lagoons, Louisiana Army Ammunition Plant (LAAP), a National Priorities List (NPL) site. Groundwater sampling data were evaluated for 12 wells (9 in the shallow aquifer and 3 in the deeper aquifer) and 9 contaminants of concern (COCs). A trend index (TI) was calculated from the sum of the number of improving and stable trends minus the number of deteriorating trends for each contaminant, each well, and the overall site. A positive TI indicates an improving trend for themore » site, contaminant, or well. Conversely, a negative TI indicates a deteriorating trend. The overall trend indices at the site for the shallow and deeper aquifers were found to be positive, indicating that the groundwater quality at Area P is generally improving. Interim remedial action was conducted at Area P from 1988 through 1990. The effect of remedial activities on groundwater quality was assessed by comparing the groundwater concentrations of nitro compounds measured immediately after the site remediation to those measured prior to the remedial action. The regression curves and the data indicated that a downward trend in the groundwater concentrations was observed immediately following the remediation activity at Area P. The trends from the regression analysis indicated that the overall remedy at Area P has been effective in reducing COC concentrations in groundwater.« less

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

PubMed

Lagueux, Cynthia J; Campbell, Cathi L; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity.

Water-level conditions in the confined aquifers of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Depaul, Vincent T.; Rosman, Robert

2015-01-01

From 1998 to 2008, downward water-level trends were observed at 22 wells (29 percent), upward trends were observed at 21 wells (27 percent), and insubstantial trends at 34 wells (44 percent). Downward trends were detected most often at wells open to the Piney Point aquifer and the Atlantic City 800-foot sand. Upward water-level trends were most frequent in wells open to the Englishtown aquifer system in Critical Area 1 and in wells within the Potomac-Raritan-Magothy aquifer system in southern New Jersey.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

Experimental study on interfacial area transport in downward two-phase flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Guanyi

In view of the importance of two group interfacial area transport equations and lack of corresponding accurate downward flow database that can reveal two group interfacial area transport, a systematic database for adiabatic, air-water, vertically downward two-phase flow in a round pipe with inner diameter of 25.4 mm was collected to gain an insight of interfacial structure and provide benchmarking data for two-group interfacial area transport models. A four-sensor conductivity probe was used to measure the local two phase flow parameters and data was collected with data sampling frequency much higher than conventional data sampling frequency to ensure the accuracy. Axial development of local flow parameter profiles including void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and Sauter mean diameter were presented. Drastic inter-group transfer of void fraction and interfacial area was observed at bubbly to slug transition flow. And the wall peaked interfacial area concentration profiles were observed in churn-turbulent flow. The importance of local data about these phenomenon on flow structure prediction and interfacial area transport equation benchmark was analyzed. Bedsides, in order to investigate the effect of inlet conditions, all experiments were repeated after installing the flow straightening facility, and the results were briefly analyzed. In order to check the accuracy of current data, the experiment results were cross-checked with rotameter measurement as well as drift-flux model prediction, the averaged error is less than 15%. Current models for two-group interfacial area transport equation were evaluated using these data. The results show that two-group interfacial area transport equations with current models can predict most flow conditions with error less than 20%, except some bubbly to slug transition flow conditions and some churn-turbulent flow conditions. The disagreement between models and experiments could result from underestimate of inter

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE PAGES

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; ...

2015-06-01

-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko

-simulated trends in VCDs strongly correlate with those estimated from surface concentrations (r = 0.83, N = 355). We then explore the observed correspondence of trends estimated from OMI and AQS data. We find a significant, but slightly weaker, correspondence (i.e., r = 0.68, N = 208) than predicted by the model and discuss some of the important factors affecting the relationship, including known problems (e.g., NO z interferents) associated with the AQS data. This significant correspondence gives confidence in trend and surface concentration estimates from OMI VCDs for locations, such as the majority of the U.S. and globe, that are not covered by surface monitoring networks. Using our improved trend model and our enhanced OMI data product, we find that both OMI and AQS data show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 38% for each over the U.S. The annual reduction rates inferred from OMI and AQS measurements are larger (–4.8 ± 1.9%/yr, –3.7 ± 1.5%/yr) from 2005 to 2008 than 2010 to 2013 (–1.2 ± 1.2%/yr, –2.1 ± 1.4%/yr). We quantify NO₂ trends for major U.S. cities and power plants; the latter suggest larger negative trend (–4.0 ± 1.5%/yr) between 2005 and 2008 and smaller or insignificant changes (–0.5 ± 1.2%/yr) during 2010-2013.« less

Water-quality trends in the Scituate reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, 1983-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Kirk P.

2015-01-01

Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half of the monitoring stations for WYs 1983-2012 and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Many upward trends in alkalinity also were identified for both the WYs 1983-2012 and for WYs 2003-12 periods and are likely related to the natural weathering of structures containing concrete or, in some cases, the application of lime or fertilizers on agriculture lands. Significant trends in chloride concentrations at most stations during WYs 1983-2012 were upward; however, results for WYs 2003-12 substantiate few significant upward trends and, in a few cases, downward trends were identified in several tributary drainage areas.

Trends in Hospitalization and Mortality Rates Due to Acute Cardiovascular Disease in Castile and León, 2001 to 2015.

PubMed

López-Messa, Juan B; Andrés-de Llano, Jesús M; López-Fernández, Laura; García-Cruces, Jesús; García-Crespo, Julio; Prieto González, Miryam

2018-02-01

To analyze hospitalization and mortality rates due to acute cardiovascular disease (ACVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study of the hospital discharge database of Castile and León from 2001 to 2015, selecting patients with a principal discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina, heart failure, or acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Trends in the rates of hospitalization/100 000 inhabitants/y and hospital mortality/1000 hospitalizations/y, overall and by sex, were studied by joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 239 586 ACVD cases (AMI 55 004; unstable angina 15 406; heart failure 111 647; AIS 57 529) were studied. The following statistically significant trends were observed: hospitalization: ACVD, upward from 2001 to 2007 (5.14; 95%CI, 3.5-6.8; P < .005), downward from 2011 to 2015 (3.7; 95%CI, 1.0-6.4; P < .05); unstable angina, downward from 2001 to 2010 (-12.73; 95%CI, -14.8 to -10.6; P < .05); AMI, upward from 2001 to 2003 (15.6; 95%CI, 3.8-28.9; P < .05), downward from 2003 to 2015 (-1.20; 95%CI, -1.8 to -0.6; P < .05); heart failure, upward from 2001 to 2007 (10.70; 95%CI, 8.7-12.8; P < .05), upward from 2007 to 2015 (1.10; 95%CI, 0.1-2.1; P < .05); AIS, upward from 2001 to 2007 (4.44; 95%CI, 2.9-6.0; P < .05). Mortality rates: downward from 2001 to 2015 in ACVD (-1.16; 95%CI, -2.1 to -0.2; P < .05), AMI (-3.37, 95%CI, -4.4 to -2, 3, P < .05), heart failure (-1.25; 95%CI, -2.3 to -0.1; P < .05) and AIS (-1.78; 95%CI, -2.9 to -0.6; P < .05); unstable angina, upward from 2001 to 2007 (24.73; 95%CI, 14.2-36.2; P < .05). The ACVD analyzed showed a rising trend in hospitalization rates from 2001 to 2015, which was especially marked for heart failure, and a decreasing trend in hospital mortality rates, which were similar in men and women. These data point to a stabilization and a decline in hospital mortality, attributable to established prevention measures. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by

Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind through atmospheric vertical coupling downward control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prikryl, Paul; Bruntz, Robert; Tsukijihara, Takumi; Iwao, Koki; Muldrew, Donald B.; Rušin, Vojto; Rybanský, Milan; Turňa, Maroš; Šťastný, Pavel

2018-06-01

Occurrence of severe weather in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) system is investigated. It is observed that significant snowfall, wind and heavy rain, particularly if caused by low pressure systems in winter, tend to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind. Previously published statistical evidence that explosive extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere tend to occur within a few days after arrivals of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes (Prikryl et al., 2009, 2016) is corroborated for the southern hemisphere. Cases of severe weather events are examined in the context of the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) coupling. Physical mechanism to explain these observations is proposed. The leading edge of high-speed solar wind streams is a locus of large-amplitude magneto-hydrodynamic waves that modulate Joule heating and/or Lorentz forcing of the high-latitude lower thermosphere generating medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves that propagate upward and downward through the atmosphere. Simulations of gravity wave propagation in a model atmosphere using the Transfer Function Model (Mayr et al., 1990) reveal that propagating waves originating in the lower thermosphere can excite a spectrum of gravity waves in the lower atmosphere. In spite of significantly reduced amplitudes but subject to amplification upon reflection in the upper troposphere, these gravity waves can provide a lift of unstable air to release instabilities in the troposphere and initiate convection to form cloud/precipitation bands. It is primarily the energy provided by release of latent heat that leads to intensification of storms. These results indicate that vertical coupling in the atmosphere exerts downward control from solar wind to the lower atmospheric levels influencing tropospheric weather development.

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

The Aggregate Supply Curve: Keynes and Downwardly Sticky Money Wages.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wells, Paul

1985-01-01

Keynes's explanation of both the rationale underlying downwardly sticky money wages and the consequences this phenomenon has for macroeconomic theory are reviewed. An aggregate supply curve appropriate to today's economy is then interpreted. (Author/RM)

Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

2018-03-01

Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

A unified engineering model of the first stroke in downward negative lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nag, Amitabh; Rakov, Vladimir A.

2016-03-01

Each stroke in a negative cloud-to-ground lightning flash is composed of downward leader and upward return stroke processes, which are usually modeled individually. The first stroke leader is stepped and starts with preliminary breakdown (PB) which is often viewed as a separate process. We present the first unified engineering model for computing the electric field produced by a sequence of PB, stepped leader, and return stroke processes, serving to transport negative charge to ground. We assume that a negatively charged channel extends downward in a stepped fashion during both the PB and leader stages. Each step involves a current wave that propagates upward along the newly formed channel section. Once the leader attaches to ground, an upward propagating return stroke neutralizes the charge deposited along the channel. Model-predicted electric fields are in reasonably good agreement with simultaneous measurements at both near (hundreds of meters, electrostatic field component is dominant) and far (tens of kilometers, radiation field component is dominant) distances from the lightning channel. Relations between the features of computed electric field waveforms and model input parameters are examined. It appears that peak currents associated with PB pulses are similar to return stroke peak currents, and the observed variation of electric radiation field peaks produced by leader steps at different heights above ground is influenced by the ground corona space charge.

[The epidemiological trends connected with detection of HIV, HCV, HBV and syphilis markers in blood donors in the years 2006-2009].

PubMed

Rudowska, Ewa; Basta, Lidia; Piwowarska, Grazyna; Drybańska, Bozena; Dylag, Stanisław

2011-03-01

In the recent years a great progress has been documented in infection prevention. There is more possibilities responsible for infection and its transmission. To analyze obtained epidemiological data concerned to detected infection in blood donors in the area of Blood Bank in Katowice in the years 2006-2009. Statistic calculations taking account of confirmed infections in the years 2006-2009 were analyzed in first-time donors and multiple donors, and for all donors. Tests confirming infection were performed in the IHiT in Warsaw, in RBC in Katowice, confirmation test for syphilis in the RBC in Warsaw. Only the positive confirmed results are taken into account and presented in summary. In first-time donors more frequently the markers of infection: HCV and HBV dozens of times, HIV and syphilis several times were detected. In the group of first-time donors a downward trend was detected in the number of detected infections HBV and HCV In the group of multiple donors the downward trend was documented in the number of detected antibodies associated to syphilis. In the group of multiple donors the number of detected HIV infections has been increased in the years 2008 and 2009. For monitoring trends of each type of infections, a period of four-years is not sufficiently long. This data needs a further observations.

Nutrient concentrations and loads in the northeastern United States - Status and trends, 1975-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trench, Elaine C. Todd; Moore, Richard B.; Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Mullaney, John R.; Hickman, R. Edward; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) began regional studies in 2003 to synthesize information on nutrient concentrations, trends, stream loads, and sources. In the northeastern United States, a study area that extends from Maine to central Virginia, nutrient data were evaluated for 130 USGS water-quality monitoring stations. Nutrient data were analyzed for trends in flow-adjusted concentrations, modeled instream (non-flow-adjusted) concentrations, and stream loads for 32 stations with 22 to 29 years of water-quality and daily mean streamflow record during 1975-2003 (termed the long-term period), and for 46 stations during 1993-2003 (termed the recent period), by using a coupled statistical model of streamflow and water quality developed by the USGS. Recent trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of one or more nutrients also were analyzed for 90 stations by using Tobit regression. Annual stream nutrient loads were estimated, and annual nutrient yields were calculated, for 47 stations for the long-term and recent periods, and for 37 additional stations that did not have a complete streamflow and water-quality record for 1993-2003. Nutrient yield information was incorporated for 9 drainage basins evaluated in a national NAWQA study, for a total of 93 stations evaluated for nutrient yields. Long-term downward trends in flow-adjusted concentrations of total nitrogen and total phosphorus (18 and 19 of 32 stations, respectively) indicate regional improvements in nutrient-related water-quality conditions. Most of the recent trends detected for total phosphorus were upward (17 of 83 stations), indicating possible reversals to the long-term improvements. Concentrations of nutrients in many streams persist at levels that are likely to affect aquatic habitat adversely and promote freshwater or coastal eutrophication. Recent trends for modeled instream concentrations, and modeled reference concentrations, were evaluated relative to

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunkerton, Timothy J.

2000-01-01

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans; Schaub, M.; Volet, B.; Hafliger, G.; Zbinden, N.

2010-01-01

Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered

The Glass Floor: Education, Downward Mobility, and Opportunity Hoarding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeves, Richard V.; Howard, Kimberly

2013-01-01

From an intergenerational perspective, the U.S. income distribution is sticky at both ends. Affluence and poverty are both partially inherited. Policy and research has focused on upward mobility, especially from the bottom. But relative intergenerational upward mobility is only possible with equivalent rates of downward mobility, where much less…

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

2014-01-01

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Biomonitoring of metals under the water framework directive: detecting temporal trends and abrupt changes, in relation to the removal of pollution sources.

PubMed

Solaun, O; Rodríguez, J G; Borja, A; González, M; Saiz-Salinas, J I

2013-02-15

Temporal trends in metal concentrations, i.e. Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn, measured in soft tissues of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters collected from estuarine waters within the Basque Country (Bay of Biscay), have been investigated to determine if actions undertaken have improved the environmental quality of rivers and estuaries. Data compiled between 1990 and 2010 have been analysed statistically, applying the Mann-Kendall and the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Moreover, in those cases with significant trends, the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Adaptive (KZA) filter was applied to detect abrupt changes. Results showed significant decreasing trends for some metals, i.e. Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn, and differences between medians. Trend lines showed abrupt changes occurring between 1998 and 2002. Therefore, observed downward trends were related to increased wastewater treatment and diversions of discharges to ocean, implemented mainly during 2000-2002. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed Trends in West Coast Atmospheric River Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, K. R.; Swain, D. L.; Barnes, E. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the changing characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in a warming climate is critical in light of their importance in generating precipitation and creating the potential for flood and geophysical hazards. Numerous changes to the characteristics of ARs under the influence of a changing climate have been documented or hypothesized; one simple hypothesis is that AR precipitation will occur at increasingly warm temperatures, potentially altering the critical rain/snow balance in snowpack-dependent watersheds and causing precipitation at higher elevations to fall as rain rather than snow. Not only would warmer, primarily rain-producing ARs greatly affect snow accumulation, but they might also increase the intensity of runoff, the potential for flooding, and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events. Since the West Coast of North America relies heavily on ARs as a source of precipitation and snowpack accumulation, these regions may be profoundly affected by changes in AR temperatures and associated impacts. Using a catalog of ARs encompassing 1979-2014 and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess whether detectable trends exist in cool season AR temperatures over the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We define AR temperature by the mean temperature of the air mass between 1000 hPa and 750 hPa, and compare AR temperature trends to background temperature trends over the same period. We find overall AR warming over this period and particularly robust warming in March ARs coincident with an apparent poleward shift in March AR frequency. Further analysis suggests that warmer ARs have higher rates of warming than cooler ARs. AR temperature trends generally scale with background temperature trends, although some regions exhibit a near one-to-one relationship while others are largely uncorrelated. The observed warming of ARs making landfall on the West Coast may have potentially significant implications for rain vs. snow at higher elevations, the

Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoddard, J.L.; Jeffries, D.S.; Lukewille, A.; Clair, T.A.; Dillon, P.J.; Driscoll, C.T.; Forsius, M.; Johannessen, M.; Kahl, J.S.; Kellogg, J.H.; Kemp, A.; Mannlo, J.; Monteith, D.T.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Patrick, S.; Rebsdorl, A.; Skjelkvale, B.L.; Stainton, M.P.; Traaen, T.; Van Dam, H.; Webster, K.E.; Wleting, J.; Wllander, A.

1999-01-01

Rates of acidic deposition from the atmosphere ('acid rain') have decreased throughout the 1980s and 1990s across large portions of North America and Europe. Many recent studies have attributed observed reversals in surface-water acidification at national and regional scales to the declining deposition. To test whether emissions regulations have led to widespread recovery in surface-water chemistry, we analysed regional trends between 1980 and 1995 in indicators of acidification (sulphate, nitrate and base-cation concentrations, and measured (Gran) alkalinity) for 205 lakes and streams in eight regions of North America and Europe. Dramatic differences in trend direction and strength for the two decades are apparent. In concordance with general temporal trends in acidic deposition, lake and stream sulphate concentrations decreased in all regions with the exception of Great Britain all but one of these regions exhibited stronger downward trends in the 1990s than in the 1980s. In contrast, regional declines in lake and stream nitrate concentrations were rare and, when detected, were very small. Recovery in alkalinity, expected wherever strong regional declines in sulphate concentrations have occurred, was observed in all regions of Europe, especially in the 1990s, but in only one region (of five) in North America. We attribute the lack of recovery in three regions (south/central Ontario, the Adirondack/Catskill mountains and midwestern North America) to strong regional declines in base-cation concentrations that exceed the decreases in sulphate concentrations.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the

Downward-deployed tethered satellite systems, measurement techniques, and instrumentation - A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Kenneth G.; Melfi, Leonard T., Jr.; Upchurch, Billy T.; Wood, George M., Jr.

1992-01-01

This paper describes a number of scheduled and proposed Shuttle-based downward-deployed tethered satellite systems (TSSs) the purpose of which is to determine the structure of the lower thermosphere and to measure the atmospheric and aerodynamic effects in the vicinity of the satellite, the aerothermodynamic effects on the satellite's surface, and the dynamics of the tether and its endmass, the satellite. The instruments for the downward-deployed tethered missions will include mass spectrometers and other density sensors, plasma instrumentation, optical spectrophotometers, magnetometers, and instrumentation to measure the effects on satellite surface (such as the surface temperature, heat transfer, and pressure; gas adsorption on surfaces, chemistry with other gas molecules and surface material, and desorption from the surface; and surface charging).

Sperm quality in New Zealand: Is the downward trend continuing?

PubMed

Birdsall, Mary A; Peek, John; Valiapan, Sumithra

2015-10-16

To investigate whether the decline in sperm concentration in New Zealand sperm donors observed from 1987 to 2007 continued in the period 2008-2014. A retrospective study from 2008 to 2014. The first semen sample of 285 men presenting as sperm donors in Auckland and Wellington was analysed for sperm concentration, seminal fluid volume and the percentage of motile sperm. These results were compared to results from 1987 to 2007 from the same clinics. The decline in semen volume and sperm concentration observed between 1987 and 2007 did not continue in 2008-2014. Sperm concentration decreased from 1987 until some time between 1997 and 2001, and has remained stable at an average of 62x106/ml between 2001 and 2014. Sperm motility declined significantly (8%) in the period 2008-2014, but there was no significant change over the total period studied, between 1987 and 2014. After a decline between 1987 and sometime during 1997-2001, the sperm concentration in men presenting as donors remained unchanged between 2002 and 2014, suggesting semen quality has not changed in New Zealand men over the last decade.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

[Divergent Trends in Suicide Mortality in Navarra and Spain: 2000-2015].

PubMed

Delfrade, Josu; Sayón-Orea, Carmen; Teijeira-Álvarez, Rafael; Floristán-Floristán, Yugo; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi

2017-05-03

The aim of this study was to know the suicide mortality rates in Navarra and Spain and to compare their time trends during the period 2000-2015. Suicide data were obtained from the Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE], Spain’s National Statistics Institute. During all the period, the coding of cause of death in Navarra was carried out using data from forensic autopsies, while in some Spanish regions this process started after 2010. A Joinpoint time series regression model was used to assess the time trend and estimate the annual percent change [APC] of the rates by sex and 4 age groups. Suicide mortality in Spain showed a significant downward trend in the overall rate between 2000-2011 [APC of -1.93% in males and -2.19% in females] followed by a significant increase in 2012-2015 [APC: 3.65% in men and 7.60% in women]. No inflection points were observed in men aged 25-44 [APC:1.26%], 45-64 [APC: 1.63%], and women over 65 years [APC:-2.18%]. In Navarra, global rates in men showed a non significant decrease [APC:-1.56%] and a significant decrease in the group of men between 25-44 years [APC:-3.19%]. Among women we observed a non significant increase [APC: 0.74%]. The rise in overall suicide rates observed in Spain since 2011, that was not observed in Navarre, could be influenced by the improvements in coding methods in several Spanish regions. However, this could not explain the decrease observed during the all period in men aged 25-44, that was even larger in Navarra.

Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.

PubMed

Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L

2014-07-01

Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Downward economic mobility and preterm birth: an exploratory study of Chicago-born upper class White mothers.

PubMed

Collins, James W; Rankin, Kristin M; David, Richard J

2015-07-01

A paucity of published data exists on the factors underlying the relatively poor birth outcome of non-Hispanic White women in the United States. To determine whether downward economic mobility is a risk factor for preterm birth (<37 weeks, PTB) among upper class-born White women. Stratified and multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed on an Illinois transgenerational dataset of non-Hispanic White infants (1989-1991) and their women (1956-1976) with appended US census income information. The study sample was restricted to singleton births of Chicago-born upper-class (defined by early-life residence in affluent neighborhoods) non-Hispanic White women. Upper class-born White women (n = 4,891) who did not experience downward economic mobility by the time of delivery had a PTB rate of 5.4 %. Those women who experienced slight (n = 5,112), moderate (n = 2,158), or extreme (n = 339) downward economic mobility had PTB rates of 6.5, 8.5, and 10.1 %, respectively; RR (95 % CI) = 1.2 (1.0-4.0), 1.6 (1.3-1.9), and 1.9 (1.3-2.6), respectively. Maternal downward economic mobility was also associated with an increased prevalence of biologic, medical, and behavioral risk factors. Interestingly, the relationship between moderate to extreme downward mobility and preterm birth was stronger among former low birth weight (<2500 g, LBW) than non-LBW women: 2.8 (1.4-5.8) versus 1.6 (1.3-1.9), respectively. In multilevel logistic regression models, the adjusted odds ratio of preterm birth for former LBW and non-LBW women who experienced any downward mobility (compared to those women with lifelong upper class status) equaled 2.4 (1.1-5.3) and 1.1 (1.0-1.1), respectively. Downward economic mobility is associated with an increased risk of preterm birth among upper class-born White urban women; this phenomenon is strongest among former low birth weight women.

Apparatus for downward transport of heat

DOEpatents

Neeper, D.A.; Hedstrom, J.C.

1985-08-05

An apparatus for the downward transport of heat by vaporization of a working fluid, usually from a collector which can be powered by the sun to a condenser which drains the condensed working fluid to a lower reservoir, is controled by a control valve which is operationally dependent upon the level of working fluid in either the lower reservoir or an upper reservoir which feeds the collector. Condensed working fluid is driven from the lower to the upper reservoir by vaporized working fluid whose flow is controled by the controll valve. The upper reservoir is in constant communication with the condenser which prevents a buildup in temperature/pressure as the apparatus goes through successive pumping cycles.

Evaluating regional trends in ground-water nitrate concentrations of the Columbia Basin ground water management area, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2005-01-01

Trends in nitrate concentrations in water from 474 wells in 17 subregions in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) in three counties in eastern Washington were evaluated using a variety of statistical techniques, including the Friedman test and the Kendall test. The Kendall test was modified from its typical 'seasonal' version into a 'regional' version by using well locations in place of seasons. No statistically significant trends in nitrate concentrations were identified in samples from wells in the GWMA, the three counties, or the 17 subregions from 1998 to 2002 when all data were included in the analysis. For wells in which nitrate concentrations were greater than 10 milligrams per liter (mg/L), however, a significant downward trend of -0.4 mg/L per year was observed between 1998 and 2002 for the GWMA as a whole, as well as for Adams County (-0.35 mg/L per year) and for Franklin County (-0.46 mg/L per year). Trend analysis for a smaller but longer-term 51-well dataset in Franklin County found a statistically significant upward trend in nitrate concentrations of 0.1 mg/L per year between 1986 and 2003. The largest increase of nitrate concentrations occurred between 1986 and 1991. No statistically significant differences were observed in this dataset between 1998 and 2003 indicating that the increase in nitrate concentrations has leveled off.

Comparison of observed and modeled cloud-free longwave downward radiation (2010-2016) at the high mountain BSRN Izaña station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delia García, Rosa; Barreto, Africa; Cuevas, Emilio; Gröbner, Julian; García, Omaira Elena; Gómez-Peláez, Angel; Romero-Campos, Pedro Miguel; Redondas, Alberto; Cachorro, Victoria Eugenia; Ramos, Ramon

2018-06-01

A 7-year (2010-2016) comparison study between measured and simulated longwave downward radiation (LDR) under cloud-free conditions was performed at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory (IZO, Spain). This analysis encompasses a total of 2062 cases distributed approximately evenly between day and night. Results show an excellent agreement between Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) measurements and simulations with libRadtran V2.0.1 and MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission model (MODTRAN) V6 radiative transfer models (RTMs). Mean bias (simulated - measured) of < 1.1 % and root mean square of the bias (RMS) of < 1 % are within the instrumental error (2 %). These results highlight the good agreement between the two RTMs, proving to be useful tools for the quality control of LDR observations and for detecting temporal drifts in field instruments. The standard deviations of the residuals, associated with the RTM input parameters uncertainties are rather small, 0.47 and 0.49 % for libRadtran and MODTRAN, respectively, at daytime, and 0.49 to 0.51 % at night-time. For precipitable water vapor (PWV) > 10 mm, the observed night-time difference between models and measurements is +5 W m-2 indicating a scale change of the World Infrared Standard Group of Pyrgeometers (WISG), which serves as reference for atmospheric longwave radiation measurements. Preliminary results suggest a possible impact of dust aerosol on infrared radiation during daytime that might not be correctly parametrized by the models, resulting in a slight underestimation of the modeled LDR, of about -3 W m-2, for relatively high aerosol optical depth (AOD > 0.20).

Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodyear, C.P.

1985-01-01

Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the populationmore » did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.« less

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

Trends in selected streamflow statistics at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico, 1922-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbie, Dana L.; Wehmeyer, Loren L.

2012-01-01

Trends in selected streamflow statistics during 1922-2009 were evaluated at 19 long-term streamflow-gaging stations considered indicative of outflows from Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana, Galveston Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, evaluated streamflow data from streamflow-gaging stations with more than 50 years of record that were active as of 2009. The outflows into Arkansas and Louisiana were represented by 3 streamflow-gaging stations, and outflows into the Gulf of Mexico, including Galveston Bay, were represented by 16 streamflow-gaging stations. Monotonic trend analyses were done using the following three streamflow statistics generated from daily mean values of streamflow: (1) annual mean daily discharge, (2) annual maximum daily discharge, and (3) annual minimum daily discharge. The trend analyses were based on the nonparametric Kendall's Tau test, which is useful for the detection of monotonic upward or downward trends with time. A total of 69 trend analyses by Kendall's Tau were computed - 19 periods of streamflow multiplied by the 3 streamflow statistics plus 12 additional trend analyses because the periods of record for 2 streamflow-gaging stations were divided into periods representing pre- and post-reservoir impoundment. Unless otherwise described, each trend analysis used the entire period of record for each streamflow-gaging station. The monotonic trend analysis detected 11 statistically significant downward trends, 37 instances of no trend, and 21 statistically significant upward trends. One general region studied, which seemingly has relatively more upward trends for many of the streamflow statistics analyzed, includes the rivers and associated creeks and bayous to Galveston Bay in the Houston metropolitan area. Lastly, the most western river basins considered (the Nueces and Rio Grande) had statistically significant downward trends for many of the streamflow statistics

Pollinators: Downward Trends and Lofty Goals

EPA Science Inventory

Pollinators are essential to natural and managed landscapes. By providing critical pollination services, bees, birds, beetles, butterflies, bats and other animals enhance biodiversity and contribute to production of many nutritious foods. Honey bees alone pollinate 90 commercia...

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump ismore » here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.« less

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics in Hawaii, 1913-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.

2004-01-01

The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. In Hawaii, surface-water resources are developed for both offstream uses (for example, drinking water, agriculture, and industrial uses) and instream uses (for example, maintenance of habitat and ecosystems, recreational activities, aesthetic values, maintenance of water quality, conveyance of irrigation and domestic water supplies, and protection of traditional and customary Hawaiian rights). Possible long-term trends in streamflow characteristics have important implications for water users, water suppliers, resource managers, and citizens in the State. Proper management of Hawaii's streams requires an understanding of long-term trends in streamflow characteristics and their potential implications. Effects of long-term downward trends in low flows in streams include potential loss of habitat for native stream fauna and reduced water availability for offstream and instream water uses. Effects of long-term upward trends in high flows in streams include construction of bridges and water-conveyance structures that are potentially unsafe if they are not designed with proper consideration of trends in high flows.

Downward continuation of gravity information from satellite to satellite tracking or satellite gradiometry in local areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rummel, R.

1975-01-01

Integral formulas in the parameter domain are used instead of a representation by spherical harmonics. The neglected regions will cause a truncation error. The application of the discrete form of the integral equations connecting the satellite observations with surface gravity anomalies is discussed in comparison with the least squares prediction method. One critical point of downward continuation is the proper choice of the boundary surface. Practical feasibilities are in conflict with theoretical considerations. The properties of different approaches for this question are analyzed.

Infant mortality trend in the city of Rio Branco, AC, 1999 to 2015

PubMed Central

Ramalho, Alanderson Alves; de Andrade, Andréia Moreira; Martins, Fernanda Andrade; Koifman, Rosalina Jorge

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the trend of infant mortality in Rio Branco, state of Acre, from 1999 to 2015. METHODS An ecological observational study of a time series, in which data from deaths from the Information System on Mortality and Births of the Information System on Live Births were used. The annual percentage change was estimated using the Joinpoint software. RESULTS The infant mortality rate decreased from 26.99 in 1999 to 14.50 in 2015 per 1,000 live births, with an annual percentage change of -4.37 (95%CI -5.4– -3.4). When stratified by age components, the neonatal period presented an annual percentage change of -4.73 (95%CI -5.7– -3.7), and the post-neonatal period was -3.7 (95%CI -5.4– -2.0). Avoidability, avoidable causes and poorly defined causes showed a downward trend throughout the period and causes not clearly preventable showed an upward trend until 2008. The group of causes that contributed most to the infant deaths during the period studied was perinatal diseases, followed by malformations, infectious and parasitic diseases, and respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS Despite the decreasing trend in infant mortality rates in the capital compared to developed countries, it is relatively high. PMID:29641657

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Assessment of the value of repeated point-prevalence surveys for analyzing the trend in nosocomial infections.

PubMed

Sartor, Catherine; Delchambre, Anne; Pascal, Laurence; Drancourt, Michel; De Micco, Philippe; Sambuc, Roland

2005-04-01

To assess the value of repeated point-prevalence surveys in measuring the trend in nosocomial infections after adjustment for case mix. A 3,500-bed teaching facility composed of 4 acute care hospitals. From May 1992 to June 1996, eight point-prevalence surveys of nosocomial infections were performed in the hospitals using a sampling process. The trend of adjusted nosocomial infection rates was studied for the four surveys that collected data on indwelling catheters. Adjusted rates were calculated using a logistic regression model and a direct standardization method. From 1992 to 1996, a total of 20,238 patients were included in the 8 point-prevalence surveys. The nosocomial infection rate decreased from 8.6% in 1992 to 5% in 1996 (P < .001). The analysis of adjusted nosocomial infection rates included 9,600 patients. Four independent risk factors were identified: length of stay greater than 12 days, hospitalization in an intensive care unit, presence of an indwelling urinary catheter, and history of a surgical procedure. After adjustment for case mix, the nosocomial infection rate still showed a downward trend (from 7.2% in 1993 to 5.1% in 1996; P = .02). Adjusted prevalence rates of nosocomial infections showed a significant downward trend during the period of this study.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, Fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch Rates and Trends, 1991–2011

PubMed Central

Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Strindberg, Samantha

2014-01-01

This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs). More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i) an increase in reproductive output, ii) insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii) changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv) the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v) a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population diversity. PMID

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong

Modeled Downward Transport of a Passive Tracer over Western North America during an Asian Dust Event in April 1998.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hacker, Joshua P.; McKendry, Ian G.; Stull, Roland B.

2001-09-01

An intense Gobi Desert dust storm in April 1998 loaded the midtroposphere with dust that was transported across the Pacific to western North America. The Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) model was used to investigate mechanisms causing downward transport of the midtropospheric dust and to explain the high concentrations of particulate matter of less than 10-m diameter measured in the coastal urban areas of Washington and southern British Columbia. The MC2 was initialized with a thin, horizontally homogeneous layer of passive tracer centered at 650 hPa for a simulation from 0000 UTC 26 April to 0000 UTC 30 April 1998. Model results were in qualitative agreement with observed spatial and temporal patterns of particulate matter, indicating that it captured the important meteorological processes responsible for the horizontal and vertical transport over the last few days of the dust event. A second simulation was performed without topography to isolate the effects of topography on downward transport.Results show that the dust was advected well east of the North American coast in southwesterly midtropospheric flow, with negligible dust concentration reaching the surface initially. Vertically propagating mountain waves formed during this stage, and differences between downward and upward velocities in these waves could account for a rapid descent of dust to terrain height, where the dust was entrained into the turbulent planetary boundary layer. A deepening outflow (easterly) layer near the surface transported the tracer westward and created a zonal-shear layer that further controlled the tracer advection. Later, the shear layer lifted, leading to a downward hydraulic acceleration along the western slopes, as waves generated in the easterly flow amplified below the shear layer that was just above mountain-crest height. Examination of 10 yr of National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses suggests that such events

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001-2011.

PubMed

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-09-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoard, Christopher J.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Duris, Joseph W.

2018-02-21

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated.In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

Electron acceleration in downward auroral field-aligned currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cran-McGreehin, Alexandra P.; Wright, Andrew N.

2005-10-01

The auroral downward field-aligned current is mainly carried by electrons accelerated up from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere along magnetic field lines. Current densities are typically of the order of a few μ Am-2, and the associated electrons are accelerated to energies of several hundred eV up to a few keV. This downward current has been modeled by Temerin and Carlson (1998) using an electron fluid. This paper extends that model by describing the electron populations via distribution functions and modeling all of the F region. We assume a given ion density profile, and invoke quasi-neutrality to solve for the potential along the field line. Several important locations and quantities emerge from this model: the ionospheric trapping point, below which the ionospheric population is trapped by an ambipolar electric field; the location of maximum E∥, of the order of a few mVm-1, which lies earthward of the B/n peak; the acceleration region, located around the B/n peak, which normally extends between altitudes of 500 and 3000 km; and the total potential increase along the field line, of the order of a few hundred V up to several kV. The B/n peak is found to be the central factor determining the altitude and magnitude of the accelerating potential required. Indeed, the total potential drop is found to depend solely on the equilibrium properties in the immediate vicinity of the B/n peak.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN

The auroral current circuit and field-aligned currents observed by FAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elphic, R. C.; Bonnell, J. W.; Strangeway, R. J.; Kepko, L.; Ergun, R. E.; McFadden, J. P.; Carlson, C. W.; Peria, W.; Cattell, C. A.; Klumpar, D.; Shelley, E.; Peterson, W.; Moebius, E.; Kistler, L.; Pfaff, R.

FAST observes signatures of small-scale downward-going current at the edges of the inverted-V regions where the primary (auroral) electrons are found. In the winter pre-midnight auroral zone these downward currents are carried by upward flowing low- and medium-energy (up to several keV) electron beams. FAST instrumentation shows agreement between the current densities inferred from both the electron distributions and gradients in the magnetic field. FAST data taken near apogee (˜4000-km altitude) commonly show downward current magnetic field deflections consistent with the observed upward flux of ˜109 electrons cm-2 s-1, or current densities of several µA m-2. The electron, field-aligned current and electric field signatures indicate the downward currents may be associated with “black aurora” and auroral ionospheric cavities. The field-aligned voltage-current relationship in the downward current region is nonlinear.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: the urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out.

PubMed

Kimani-Murage, E W; Fotso, J C; Egondi, T; Abuya, B; Elungata, P; Ziraba, A K; Kabiru, C W; Madise, N

2014-09-01

We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban-rural and intra-urban differentials. We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban-rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trends in childhood mortality in Kenya: The urban advantage has seemingly been wiped out

PubMed Central

Kimani-Murage, E.W.; Fotso, J.C.; Egondi, T.; Abuya, B.; Elungata, P.; Ziraba, A.K.; Kabiru, C.W.; Madise, N.

2014-01-01

Background We describe trends in childhood mortality in Kenya, paying attention to the urban–rural and intra-urban differentials. Methods We use data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) collected between 1993 and 2008 and the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) collected in two Nairobi slums between 2003 and 2010, to estimate infant mortality rate (IMR), child mortality rate (CMR) and under-five mortality rate (U5MR). Results Between 1993 and 2008, there was a downward trend in IMR, CMR and U5MR in both rural and urban areas. The decline was more rapid and statistically significant in rural areas but not in urban areas, hence the gap in urban–rural differentials narrowed over time. There was also a downward trend in childhood mortality in the slums between 2003 and 2010 from 83 to 57 for IMR, 33 to 24 for CMR, and 113 to 79 for U5MR, although the rates remained higher compared to those for rural and non-slum urban areas in Kenya. Conclusions The narrowing gap between urban and rural areas may be attributed to the deplorable living conditions in urban slums. To reduce childhood mortality, extra emphasis is needed on the urban slums. PMID:25024120

[The economic crisis at the beginning of the XXI century and mortality in Spain. Trend and impact on social inequalities. SESPAS Report 2014].

PubMed

Ruiz-Ramos, Miguel; Córdoba-Doña, Juan Antonio; Bacigalupe, Amaia; Juárez, Sol; Escolar-Pujolar, Antonio

2014-06-01

This study aimed to assess the impact of the current economic crisis on mortality trends in Spain and its effect on social inequalities in mortality in Andalusia. We used data from vital statistics and the Population Register for 1999 to 2011, as provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics, to estimate general and sex- and age-specific mortality rates. The Longitudinal Database of the Andalusian Population (2001 census cohort) was used to estimate general mortality rates and ratios by educational level. The annual percentages of change and trends were calculated using Joinpoint regressions. No significant change in the mortality trend was observed in Spain from 2008 onward. A downward trend after 1999 was confirmed for all causes and both sexes, with the exception of nervous system-related diseases. The reduction in mortality due to traffic accidents accelerated after 2003, while the negative trend in suicide was unchanged throughout the period studied. In Andalusia, social inequalities in mortality have increased among men since the beginning of the crisis, mainly due to a more intense reduction in mortality among persons with a higher educational level. Among women, no changes were observed in the pattern of inequality. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Diverse Electron and Ion Acceleration Characteristics Observed Over Jupiter's Main Aurora

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauk, B. H.; Haggerty, D. K.; Paranicas, C.; Clark, G.; Kollmann, P.; Rymer, A. M.; Peachey, J. M.; Bolton, S. J.; Levin, S. M.; Adriani, A.; Allegrini, F.; Bagenal, F.; Bonfond, B.; Connerney, J. E. P.; Ebert, R. W.; Gladstone, G. R.; Kurth, W. S.; McComas, D. J.; Ranquist, D.; Valek, P.

2018-02-01

Two new Juno-observed particle features of Jupiter's main aurora demonstrate substantial diversity of processes generating Jupiter's mysterious auroral emissions. It was previously speculated that sometimes-observed potential-driven aurora (up to 400 kV) can turn into broadband stochastic acceleration (dominating at Jupiter) by means of instability. Here direct evidence for such a process is revealed with a "mono-energetic" electron inverted-V rising in energy to 200 keV, transforming into a region of broadband acceleration with downward energy fluxes tripling to 3,000 mW/m2, and then transforming back into a mono-energetic structure ramping down from 200 keV. But a second feature of interest observed nearby is unlikely to have operated in the same way. Here a downward accelerated proton inverted-V, with inferred potentials to 300-400 kV, occurred simultaneously with downward accelerated broadband electrons with downward energy fluxes as high as any observed ( 3,000 mW/m2). This latter feature has no known precedent with Earth auroral observations.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

Numerical Solutions of the Mean-Value Theorem: New Methods for Downward Continuation of Potential Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chong; Lü, Qingtian; Yan, Jiayong; Qi, Guang

2018-04-01

Downward continuation can enhance small-scale sources and improve resolution. Nevertheless, the common methods have disadvantages in obtaining optimal results because of divergence and instability. We derive the mean-value theorem for potential fields, which could be the theoretical basis of some data processing and interpretation. Based on numerical solutions of the mean-value theorem, we present the convergent and stable downward continuation methods by using the first-order vertical derivatives and their upward continuation. By applying one of our methods to both the synthetic and real cases, we show that our method is stable, convergent and accurate. Meanwhile, compared with the fast Fourier transform Taylor series method and the integrated second vertical derivative Taylor series method, our process has very little boundary effect and is still stable in noise. We find that the characters of the fading anomalies emerge properly in our downward continuation with respect to the original fields at the lower heights.

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-08-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-01-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Gendered Influence of Downward Social Comparisons on Current and Possible Selves.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kemmelmeier, Markus; Oyserman, Daphna

2001-01-01

Examined the gendered influence of downward social comparisons among college students. Compared to men, women were more likely to feel that another's failure reflected their own chance of success, especially when it was considered due to personal characteristics. Men were more susceptible to dampened self-evaluations in light of another's failure…

Dynamic interaction of a downward plane jet and a cough jet with respect to particle transmission: An analytical and experimental study.

PubMed

Cao, Guangyu; Liu, Shichao; Boor, Brandon E; Novoselac, Atila

2017-08-01

A cough jet can travel beyond the breathing zone of the source person, and thus, infectious viral- and bacterial-laden particles can be transported from the source person to others in close proximity. To reduce the interpersonal transmission of coughed particles, the objective of this study was to analytically and experimentally investigate the performance of downward plane jets with various discharge velocities. Chamber measurements were conducted to examine the interaction between a transient cough jet (discharge velocities of 12 m/sec and 16 m/sec) and a steady downward plane jet (discharge velocities from 1.0-8.5 m/sec) with respect to the transport of and human exposure to coughed particles. The results show that a relatively high-speed cough can easily penetrate a downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of less than 6 m/sec. A downward plane jet with a discharge velocity of 8.5 m/sec can bend the cough jet to a certain extent. In this study, momentum comparison of the cough jet and the downward plane jet shows that the value of personal exposure to coughed particles depends on the ratio of jet momentums. The results show that when the two momentums are equivalent or if the downward plane jet has a greater momentum, the cough jet is deflected downward and does not reach the breathing zone of the target thermal dummy. Using the ratio of the two momentums, it may be estimated whether the transmission of a cough jet can be controlled. A trajectory model was developed based on the ratio of the two momentums of a cough jet and a downward jet and was validated using the experimental data. In addition, the predicted trajectory of the cough jet agreed well with the results from smoke visualization experiments. This model can be used to guide the design of downward plane jet systems for protection of occupants from coughed particles.

Trends in hydrophobic organic contaminants in urban and reference lake sediments across the United States, 1970-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, P.C.; Mahler, B.J.

2005-01-01

A shift in national policy toward stronger environmental protection began in the United States in about 1970. Conversely, urban land use, population, energy consumption, and vehicle use have increased greatly since then. To assess the effects of these changes on water quality, the U.S. Geological Survey used sediment cores to reconstruct water-quality histories for38 urban and reference lakes across the United States. Cores were age-dated, and concentration profiles of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and chlorinated hydrocarbons were tested statistically. Significant trends in total DDT, p,p???-DDE, and total PCBs were all downward. Trends in chlordane were split evenly between upward and downward, and trends in PAHs were mostly upward. Significant trends did not occur in about one-half of cases tested. Concentrations of p,p???-DDE, p,p???-DDD, and PCBs were about one-half as likely to exceed the probable effect concentration (PEC), a sediment quality guideline, in sediments deposited in the 1990s as in 1965-1975, whereas PAHs were twice as likely to exceed the PEC in the more recently deposited sediments. Concentrations of all contaminants evaluated correlated strongly with urban land use. Upward trends in PAH concentrations, the strong association of PAH with urban settings, and rapid urbanization occurring in the United States suggest that PAHs could surpass chlorinated hydrocarbons in the threat they pose to aquatic biota in urban streams and lakes.

Dental plan premiums in the Affordable Care Act marketplaces trended downward from 2014 through 2016.

PubMed

Nasseh, Kamyar; Vujicic, Marko

2017-04-01

Pediatric dental benefits must be offered in the health insurance marketplaces created under the Affordable Care Act. The authors analyzed trends over time in premiums and the number of dental insurers participating in the marketplaces. The authors collected dental benefit plan data from 35 states participating in the federally facilitated marketplaces in 2014, 2015, and 2016. For each county, they counted the number of issuers offering stand-alone dental plans (SADPs) and medical plans with embedded pediatric dental benefits. They also analyzed trends in premiums. From 2014 through 2016, the number of issuers of stand-alone dental plans and medical plans with embedded pediatric dental benefits either did not change or increased in most counties. Average premiums for low-actuarial-value SADPs declined from 2014 through 2016. The increase in the number of issuers of stand-alone dental plans and medical plans with embedded dental benefits may be associated with lower premiums. However, more research is needed to determine if this is the case. Affordable dental plans in the marketplaces could induce people with lower incomes to sign up for dental benefits. Newly insured people could have significant oral health needs and pent-up demand for dental care. Copyright © 2017 American Dental Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will

Large-Scale Overlays and Trends: Visually Mining, Panning and Zooming the Observable Universe.

PubMed

Luciani, Timothy Basil; Cherinka, Brian; Oliphant, Daniel; Myers, Sean; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Labrinidis, Alexandros; Marai, G Elisabeta

2014-07-01

We introduce a web-based computing infrastructure to assist the visual integration, mining and interactive navigation of large-scale astronomy observations. Following an analysis of the application domain, we design a client-server architecture to fetch distributed image data and to partition local data into a spatial index structure that allows prefix-matching of spatial objects. In conjunction with hardware-accelerated pixel-based overlays and an online cross-registration pipeline, this approach allows the fetching, displaying, panning and zooming of gigabit panoramas of the sky in real time. To further facilitate the integration and mining of spatial and non-spatial data, we introduce interactive trend images-compact visual representations for identifying outlier objects and for studying trends within large collections of spatial objects of a given class. In a demonstration, images from three sky surveys (SDSS, FIRST and simulated LSST results) are cross-registered and integrated as overlays, allowing cross-spectrum analysis of astronomy observations. Trend images are interactively generated from catalog data and used to visually mine astronomy observations of similar type. The front-end of the infrastructure uses the web technologies WebGL and HTML5 to enable cross-platform, web-based functionality. Our approach attains interactive rendering framerates; its power and flexibility enables it to serve the needs of the astronomy community. Evaluation on three case studies, as well as feedback from domain experts emphasize the benefits of this visual approach to the observational astronomy field; and its potential benefits to large scale geospatial visualization in general.

Analysis of water-quality trends at two discharge stations; one within Big Cypress National Preserve and one near Biscayne Bay; southern Florida, 1966-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lietz, A.C.

2000-01-01

An analysis of water-quality trends was made at two U.S. Geological Survey daily discharge stations in southern Florida. The ESTREND computer program was the principal tool used for the determination of water-quality trends at the Miami Canal station west of Biscayne Bay in Miami and the Tamiami Canal station along U.S. Highway 41 in the Big Cypress National Preserve in Collier County. Variability in water quality caused by both seasonality and streamflow was compensated for by applying the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test to unadjusted concentrations or flow-adjusted concentrations (residuals) determined from linear regression analysis. Concentrations of selected major inorganic constituents and physical characteristics; pH and dissolved oxygen; suspended sediment; nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon species; trace metals; and bacteriological and biological characteristics were determined at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations. Median and maximum concentrations of selected constituents were compared to the Florida Class III freshwater standards for recreation, propagation, and maintenance of a healthy, well-balanced population of fish and wildlife. The median concentrations of the water-quality constituents and characteristics generally were higher at the Miami Canal station than at the Tamiami Canal station. The maximum value for specific conductance at the Miami Canal station exceeded the State standard. The median and maximum concentrations for ammonia at the Miami and Tamiami Canal stations exceeded the State standard, whereas median dissolved-oxygen concentrations at both stations were below the State standard. Trend results were indicative of either improvement or deterioration in water quality with time. Improvement in water quality at the Miami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in suspended sediment (1987-94), turbidity, (1970-78), total ammonia (1971-94), total phosphorus (1987-94), barium (1978-94), iron (1969-94), and fecal coliform

Recent Trends in Imaging Use in Hospital Settings: Implications for Future Planning.

PubMed

Levin, David C; Parker, Laurence; Rao, Vijay M

2017-03-01

To compare trends in utilization rates of imaging in the three hospital-based settings where imaging is conducted. The nationwide Medicare Part B databases for 2004-2014 were used. All discretionary noninvasive diagnostic imaging (NDI) CPT codes were selected and grouped by modality. Procedure volumes of each code were available from the databases and converted to utilization rates per 1,000 Medicare enrollees. Medicare's place-of-service codes were used to identify imaging examinations done in hospital inpatients, hospital outpatient departments (HOPDs), and emergency departments (EDs). Trends were observed over the life of the study. Trendlines were strongly affected by code bundling in echocardiography in 2009, nuclear imaging in 2010, and CT in 2011. However, even aside from these artifactual effects, important trends could be discerned. Inpatient imaging utilization rates of all modalities are trending downward. In HOPDs, the utilization rate of conventional radiographic examinations (CREs) is declining but rates of CT, MRI, echocardiography, and noncardiac ultrasound (US) are increasing. In EDs, utilization rates of CREs, CT, and US are increasing. In the 3 years after 2011, when no further code bundling occurred, the total inpatient NDI utilization rate dropped 15%, whereas the rate in EDs increased 12% and that in HOPDs increased 1%. The trends in utilization of NDI in the three hospital-based settings where imaging occurs are distinctly different. Radiologists and others who are involved in deciding what kinds of equipment to purchase and where to locate it should be cognizant of these trends in making their decisions. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Downward Slope Driving Control for Electric Powered Wheelchair Based on Capacitor Regenerative Brake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seki, Hirokazu; Takahashi, Yoshiaki

This paper describes a novel capacitor regenerative braking control scheme of electric powered wheelchairs for efficient driving on downward slopes. An electric powered wheelchair, which generates the driving force by electric motors, is expected to be widely used as a mobility support system for elderly people and disabled people; however the energy efficiency has to be further improved because it is driven only by battery energy. This study proposes a capacitor regenerative braking circuit and two types of velocity control schemes with variable duty ratio. The proposed regenerative braking circuit is based on the step-up/down circuit with additional resistance and connects right and left motors in series in order to obtain a larger braking power. Some driving experiments on a practical downward slope show the effectiveness of the proposed control system.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and

The downward flux of biogenic material in the NE subarctic Pacific: importance of algal sinking and mesozooplankton herbivory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, D.; Roy, S.; Wong, C. S.; Bishop, J. K.

1999-11-01

In the present study we examine factors that affect the downward flux of biogenic carbon in the NE subarctic Pacific, one of the important high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll (HNLC) regions in the open ocean. We focus on the role of mesozooplankton, since their seasonal peaks in biomass and growth are in phase with the seasonal variations in the downward POC fluxes, whereas phytoplankton biomass is more-or-less uniform year-round. The relative importance of mesozooplankton and algal sinking was examined using the pigment composition of material accumulated in short-term free-drifting sediment traps positioned just below the upper stratified surface layer (ca. 100-200 m). This was compared with the phytoplankton composition in the surface waters, and with the grazing activity (gut pigments and fecal pellet production rates) of the most abundant large copepods. We also examined whether the relationships between the downward flux of carbon and pelagic processes were similar in the coastal, continental margin and offshore HNLC regions of the NE subarctic Pacific, the latter represented by Ocean Station Papa (OSP). Our results show that grazing had a variable impact on the downward flux of biogenic carbon. Carbon-transformed pheopigments (particularly pyropheophorbide a, frequently associated with copepod grazing) represented up to 13% of the total downward POC flux inshore (in May 1996) and 8-9% at OSP in May and February 1996, respectively. This flux of pheopigments was accompanied by a large potential input of fecal pellets from large copepods (as estimated from defecation rates of freshly collected animals) only in May 1996 at OSP, suggesting that pheopigments came from other sources (other herbivores, senescing algae) in February. The larger flux of pheopigments in May was probably related to the abundance of mesozooplankton at that time of the year. During summer (August 1996), both the flux of pheopigments and the potential input of fecal pellets from large copepods

Salinity Trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin Upstream From the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit, Colorado, 1986-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leib, Kenneth J.; Bauch, Nancy J.

2008-01-01

Salinity Control Unit was 10,700 tons/year. This accounts for approximately 27 percent of the decrease observed downstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Salinity loads were decreasing at the fastest rate (6,950 tons/year) in Region 4, which drains an area between the Colorado River at Cameo, Colorado (station CAMEO) and Colorado River above Glenwood Springs, Colorado (station GLEN) streamflow-gaging stations. Trends in salinity concentration and streamflow were tested at station CAMEO to determine if salinity concentration, streamflow, or both are controlling salinity loads upstream from the Grand Valley Salinity Control Unit. Trend tests of individual ion concentrations were included as potential indicators of what sources (based on mineral composition) may be controlling trends in the upper Colorado. No significant trend was detected for streamflow from 1986 to 2003 at station CAMEO; however, a significant downward trend was detected for salinity concentration. The trend slope indicates that salinity concentration is decreasing at a median rate of about 3.54 milligrams per liter per year. Five major ions (calcium, magnesium, sodium, sulfate, and chloride) were tested for trends. The results indicate that processes within source areas with rock and soil types (or other unidentified sources) bearing calcium, sodium, and sulfate had the largest effect on the downward trend in salinity load upstream from station CAMEO. Downward trends in salinity load resulting from ground-water sources and/or land-use change were thought to be possible reasons for the observed decreases in salinity loads; however, the cause or causes of the decreasing salinity loads are not fully understood. A reduction in the amount of ground-water percolation from Region 4 (resulting from work done through Federal irrigation system improvement programs as well as privately funded irrigation system improvements) has helped reduce annual salinity load from Region 4 by approxima

National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs.

PubMed

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

National Trends in Occupational Injuries Before and After 1992 and Predictors of Workers' Compensation Costs

PubMed Central

Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J. Paul

2011-01-01

Objective Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. Methods We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. Results From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973–2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992–2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. Conclusion We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973–2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of

Trends of Science Ability in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement (NAEA) of Korean Ninth Graders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyun-Kyung; Lee, Dong-Heon; Kim, Soojin

2016-01-01

The results of the National Assessment of Educational Achievement from 2010 to 2013 have shown a downward trend in ninth graders' science average achievement scores from 2011 to 2013. The percentage of students in the Advanced level decreased dramatically from 19.95% in 2010 to 11.48% in 2013, while the percentage of students in the Basic level…

Swift Observations Of High-z Radio-loud Quasars Detected With Bat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sambruna, Rita M.; Tueller, J.; Markwardt, C.; Mushotzky, R.; Tavecchio, F.

2006-01-01

We present follow-up Swift observations of 4 high-z radio-loud quasars detected with the BAT during the 15-month survey in 15-150 keV. The 0.5-8-keV spectra are best fitted either with a power law with no excess absorption over the Galactic value (0212+735, 0836+710, 2149--307 in higher state) or by a downward-curved broken power law model (0537--286, 2149--307 in lower state). The BAT spectra integrated over the whole 15 months of the survey are fitted with a single power law, with a range of spectral slopes, Gamma=l.3-2.3. Comparison with previous SAX observations shows that there is a trend for the 15-150-keV continuum to soften with fading intensity; on the contrary, little or no spectral variations are observed at medium-hard X-rays. This may suggest either/both dramatic variability above 10-keV, or/and two separate spectral components.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases and cancer mortality in 45 countries from five continents (1980-2010).

PubMed

Araújo, Fábio; Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Azevedo, Ana; Lunet, Nuno

2014-08-01

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer are worldwide main causes of death with mortality trends varying across countries with different levels of economic development. We analysed trends in CVD and cancer mortality for 37 European countries, five high-income non-European countries and four leading emerging economies (BRICS) using data from the World Health Organization database for the period 1980-2010. In high-income countries, CVD mortality trends are characterized by steep declines over the last decades, while a downward trend in cancer mortality started more recently and was less pronounced. This resulted in the gradual convergence of the CVD and cancer mortality rates, and the latter are already higher in some countries. The absolute number of CVD deaths decreased in most settings, while cancer deaths increased in nearly all countries. Among the BRICS, China and South Africa share a similar pattern of no meaningful variation in both CVD and cancer age-standardized mortality rates and an increase in the overall number of deaths by these causes. Brazil presents trends similar to those of high-income countries, except for the still increasing number of CVD deaths. The substantial decreases in CVD mortality over the last decades have overcome the impact of the growth and ageing of populations in the overall number of deaths, while stabilization in the number of cancer deaths was observed only in some of the high-income countries. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

PubMed Central

de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-12-01

Extreme cyclone events often occur during Arctic winters, and are of concern as they transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, which is associated with mixed-phase clouds and increased longwave downward radiation, and can cause temperatures to rise above freezing resulting in wintertime sea-ice melting or retarded sea-ice growth. With Arctic amplification and associated reduced sea-ice cover and warmer sea surface temperatures, the occurrence of extreme cyclones events could be a plausible scenario. We calculate the spatial patterns, and changes and trends of the number of extreme cyclone events in the Arctic based on ERA-Interim six-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data for winter (November-February) 1979-2015. Further, we analyze the SLP data from the Ny-Ålesund station for the same 37 year period. We define an extreme cyclone event by an extreme low central pressure (SLP below 985 hPa, which is the 5th percentile of the Ny-Ålesund/N-ICE2015 SLP data). Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called `weather bombs') occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade, according to the Ny-Ålesund data. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones drive considerable warming in that region, consistent with the observed significant winter warming of 3 K/decade. The positive winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as "blocking-like" circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Voyager 1 Observations of a Recent Transient Disturbance in the Interstellar Medium Caused by an Energetic Solar Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurnett, D. A.; Kurth, W. S.; Stone, E. C.; Cummings, A. C.; Krimigis, S. M.; Decker, R. B.; Ness, N. F.; Burlaga, L. F.

2016-12-01

In late August 2012 the Voyager 1 spacecraft crossed the heliopause into the nearby interstellar medium. Since then the spacecraft has detected four distinct particle and field disturbances in the interstellar plasma, each believed to be produced by a shock originating from a solar event. Here we describe the fourth and most recent of these events. This event was first identified in the Low Energy Charged Particle (LECP) and Cosmic Ray (CRS) data around day 1, 2015, by the onset of a gradual downward trend in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays near 90° pitch angles. This decrease was briefly interrupted by a small recovery, and then resumed the decrease on day 100, 2015. The downward trend was followed about half a year later by the onset of intense bursts of electron plasma oscillations on day 250, 2015. The plasma oscillations continued with high intensities, the highest intensities yet observed, to about day 310, 2015, where they abruptly ended. The oscillation frequency was around 3.0 kHz, which corresponds to a local electron density of 0.11 cm-3, the highest yet measured in the interstellar medium. Near the end of the year, day 1, 2016, the downward trend in the 90° cosmic ray intensities reversed and started increasing, but has not yet returned to isotropy as of this writing. At the minimum, the 90° cosmic ray intensity at 200 MeV was depressed about 10% below the isotropic value. Overall, the new event has very similar characteristics to the three previous events, although differing in some details and of somewhat longer in duration. Most striking is the depression in the cosmic ray intensity near 90° pitch angles which in every case precedes the onset of the electron plasma oscillations. Since the electron plasma oscillations have been widely interpreted as being driven by electron beams streaming out ahead of an approaching shock (two of which have been directly detected), it appears that the depression in the cosmic ray intensities near 90° pitch

Shallow subsurface imaging of northern Cascadia margin using downward continued short-streamer data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yelisetti, S.; Ghosal, D.; Spence, G.

2017-12-01

Since Eocene, the Juan de Fuca plate has been subducting beneath the North American plate, scrapping off sediments from the down going plate, accreting to the margin forming frontal accretionary wedge, Crescent terrane and the Pacific Rim terrane, which are separated by landward dipping Crescent thrust and Tofino faults. In 1989, the Geological Survey of Canada has acquired several multichannel seismic lines along the northern Cascadia margin to study the subduction zone processes and the formation and distribution of methane hydrates in the accreted sediment section. Seismic reflections and refractions are recorded on a 3.6 km streamer up to 14 s using 4 ms sample rate with 183 m near-offset. In this study, we present the migrated image of line 89-06 which indicate the top of the down-going plate and several landward dipping frontal thrusts. Additionally, a bottom simulating reflector (BSR) is identified over a 20 km distance at a depth of 250 m beneath the seafloor within the accretionary wedge sediments where the water depth is around 1500-2000 m. Preliminary velocity analyses corresponding to the BSR reflection using semblance method indicate high-velocity sediment with P-wave velocities of 2.0 km/s. To better constrain the velocity distribution of such shallow subsurface features, we have analyzed the refracted arrivals from the seaward part of the Tofino basin sediment section. Specifically, we have downward continued the shot and receiver gathers to the seafloor bringing the far offset refracted phases to near offset as first arrivals. Since the refractions are not well captured over the trench deposits due to large water depth ( 2500 m) and limited streamer length, the downward continued results do not show refracted arrivals very clearly at the near offset. In contrast, moving landward along the frontal slope with gradual decrease in water depth to 1300 m and less, the effect of downward continuation seems to be more prominent bringing the refracted phases

Detecting potential anomalies in projections of rainfall trends and patterns using human observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, K. E.; Savo, V.; Sillmann, J.; Morton, C.; Lepofsky, D.

2016-12-01

Shifting precipitation patterns are a well-documented consequence of climate change, but their spatial variability is particularly difficult to assess. While the accuracy of global models has increased, specific regional changes in precipitation regimes are not well captured by these models. Typically, researchers who wish to detect trends and patterns in climatic variables, such as precipitation, use instrumental observations. In our study, we combined observations of rainfall by subsistence-oriented communities with several metrics of rainfall estimated from global instrumental records for comparable time periods (1955 - 2005). This comparison was aimed at identifying: 1) which rainfall metrics best match human observations of changes in precipitation; 2) areas where local communities observe changes not detected by global models. The collated observations ( 3800) made by subsistence-oriented communities covered 129 countries ( 1830 localities). For comparable time periods, we saw a substantial correspondence between instrumental records and human observations (66-77%) at the same locations, regardless of whether we considered trends in general rainfall, drought, or extreme rainfall. We observed a clustering of mismatches in two specific regions, possibly indicating some climatic phenomena not completely captured by the currently available global models. Many human observations also indicated an increased unpredictability in the start, end, duration, and continuity of the rainy seasons, all of which may hamper the performance of subsistence activities. We suggest that future instrumental metrics should capture this unpredictability of rainfall. This information would be important for thousands of subsistence-oriented communities in planning, coping, and adapting to climate change.

Trends in cancer mortality in Spain: the influence of the financial crisis.

PubMed

Ferrando, Josep; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Puig-Barrachina, Vanessa; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Borrell, Carme

2018-02-13

To determine if the onset of the economic crisis in Spain affected cancer mortality and mortality trends. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study based on all cancer-related deaths and on specific types of cancer (lung, colon, breast and prostate) in Spain between 2000 and 2013. We computed age-standardised mortality rates in men and women, and fit mixed Poisson models to analyse the effect of the crisis on cancer mortality and trends therein. After the onset of the economic crisis, cancer mortality continued to decline, but with a significant slowing of the yearly rate of decline (men: RR = 0.987, 95%CI = 0.985-0.990, before the crisis, and RR = 0.993, 95%CI = 0.991-0.996, afterwards; women: RR = 0.990, 95%CI = 0.988-0.993, before, and RR = 1.002, 95%CI = 0.998-1.006, afterwards). In men, lung cancer mortality was reduced, continuing the trend observed in the pre-crisis period; the trend in colon cancer mortality did not change significantly and continued to increase; and the yearly decline in prostate cancer mortality slowed significantly. In women, lung cancer mortality continued to increase each year, as before the crisis; colon cancer continued to decease; and the previous yearly downward trend in breast cancer mortality slowed down following the onset of the crisis. Since the onset of the economic crisis in Spain the rate of decline in cancer mortality has slowed significantly, and this situation could be exacerbated by the current austerity measures in healthcare. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Comparison of Observed and Simulated 1990 – 2010 U.S. Ozone Trends

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we analyze ozone concentrations from long-term (1990 – 2010) WRF-CMAQ simulations driven by year specific meteorology and emissions. These simulations allow us to compare observed and simulated ozone trends in order to evaluate the model’s ability to pr...

Edentulism trends among middle-aged and older adults in the United States: comparison of five racial/ethnic groups.

PubMed

Wu, Bei; Liang, Jersey; Plassman, Brenda L; Remle, Corey; Luo, Xiao

2012-04-01

This study examined edentulism trends among adults aged 50 and above in five ethnic groups in the United States: Asians, African Americans, Hispanics, Native Americans, and non-Hispanic Caucasians. Data came from the National Health Interview Surveys between 1999 and 2008. Respondents included 616 Native Americans, 2,666 Asians, 15,295 African Americans, 13,068 Hispanics, and 86,755 Caucasians. In 2008, Native Americans had the highest predicated rate of edentulism (23.98%), followed by African Americans (19.39%), Caucasians (16.90%), Asians (14.22%), and Hispanics (14.18%). Overall, there was a significant downward trend in edentulism rates between 1999 and 2008 (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96, 0.98). However, compared with Caucasians, Native Americans showed a significantly less decline of edentulism during this period (OR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.19). While there was a downward trend in edentulism between 1999 and 2008, significant variations existed across racial/ethnic groups. Innovative public health programs and services are essential to prevent oral health diseases and conditions for minority populations who lack access to adequate dental care. Additionally, given the increasing numbers of adults retaining their natural teeth, interventions designed to assist individuals in maintaining healthy teeth becomes more critical. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Nitrogen trends in rivers of the conterminous U.S. in the context of land use and sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stets, E.; Sprague, L. A.

2017-12-01

Tremendous efforts have been undertaken to improve the quality of water throughout the United States over the past several decades. The goal of decreasing nitrogen concentrations and fluxes from U.S. rivers has had mixed success and the results are often difficult to quantify. The U.S. Geological Survey has undertaken a study to describe trends in water quality at hundreds of river and stream locations in the conterminous U.S. using a broad data set from national, state, local, and tribal entities. This study represents the largest and most comprehensive analysis of trends in water quality in the U.S. to date. During the period 1992-2012, nitrate (NO3) decreased at 132 sites and increased at 88 sites. Total nitrogen (TN) decreased at 91 sites and increased at 55 sites. The median trend for both NO3 and TN was slightly downward, at -0.04 and -0.11 mg N L-1, respectively. For both NO3 and TN, downward trends were more common in agricultural and urban sites while upward trends were more common at undeveloped sites. Decreases in TN were largest in rivers for which NO3 was a large proportion of TN, which is indicative of significant anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Across all sites and land use types, trends in TN were highly correlated with trends in NO3, suggesting that changes in NO3 have been a large contributor to TN trends. While overall the largest decreases in NO3 and TN primarily occurred in heavily agricultural areas, decreases were also common in watersheds with higher percentage urban development. Likewise, the largest decreases in NO3 deposition were found in more developed watersheds, suggesting that decreasing atmospheric deposition may be related to NO3 trends at the more developed locations. Despite these improvements, fluxes of nitrogen to the coastal ocean have been largely static over the past several decades, underscoring the continuing need for nutrient management in many parts of the conterminous U.S.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality and in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portugal.

PubMed

Morais, Samantha; Ferro, Ana; Bastos, Ana; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Peleteiro, Bárbara

2016-07-01

Portugal has the highest gastric cancer mortality rates in Western Europe, along with high prevalences of Helicobacter pylori infection. Monitoring their trends is essential to predict the burden of this cancer. We aimed to quantify time trends in gastric cancer mortality in Portugal and in each administrative region, and to compute short-term predictions, as well as to describe the prevalence of H. pylori infection, through a systematic review. Joinpoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in sex-specific trends in gastric cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and to estimate annual percent changes (APC). The most recent trends were considered to compute estimates up to 2020 by adjusting Poisson regression models. We searched PubMed and IndexRMP to identify studies carried out in Portugal reporting the prevalence of H. pylori. Gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since 1971 in men (from ASMR=55.3/100 000; APC=-2.4, 95% confidence interval: -2.5 to -2.3) and since 1970 in women (from ASMR=28.0/100 000; APC=-2.8, 95% confidence interval: -2.9 to -2.7), although large regional differences were observed. Predicted ASMR for 2015 and 2020 were 18.8/100 000 and 16.7/100 000 for men and 8.5/100 000 and 7.4/100 000 for women, respectively. The prevalence of H. pylori varied from almost 5% at 0.5-2 years to just over 90% at 70 years or more. No consistent variation was observed since the 1990s. The downward trends in mortality rates are expected to remain in the next decades. The high prevalence of H. pylori infection across age groups and studies from different periods shows a large potential for decrease in the burden of gastric cancer in Portugal.

Is tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind through atmospheric vertical coupling downward control?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prikryl, Paul; Tsukijihara, Takumi; Iwao, Koki; Muldrew, Donald B.; Bruntz, Robert; Rušin, Vojto; Rybanský, Milan; Turňa, Maroš; Šťastný, Pavel; Pastirčák, Vladimír

2017-04-01

More than four decades have passed since a link between solar wind magnetic sector boundary structure and mid-latitude upper tropospheric vorticity was discovered (Wilcox et al., Science, 180, 185-186, 1973). The link has been later confirmed and various physical mechanisms proposed but apart from controversy, little attention has been drawn to these results. To further emphasize their importance we investigate the occurrence of mid-latitude severe weather in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (MIA) system. It is observed that significant snowstorms, windstorms and heavy rain, particularly if caused by low pressure systems in winter, tend to follow arrivals of high-speed solar wind. Previously published statistical evidence that explosive extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere tend to occur after arrivals of high-speed solar wind streams from coronal holes (Prikryl et al., Ann. Geophys., 27, 1-30, 2009; Prikryl et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys., 149, 219-231, 2016) is corroborated for the southern hemisphere. A physical mechanism to explain these observations is proposed. The leading edge of high-speed solar wind streams is a locus of large-amplitude magneto-hydrodynamic waves that modulate Joule heating and/or Lorentz forcing of the high-latitude lower thermosphere generating medium-scale atmospheric gravity waves that propagate upward and downward through the atmosphere. Simulations of gravity wave propagation in a model atmosphere using the Transfer Function Model (Mayr et al., Space Sci. Rev., 54, 297-375, 1990) show that propagating waves originating in the thermosphere can excite a spectrum of gravity waves in the lower atmosphere. In spite of significantly reduced amplitudes but subject to amplification upon reflection in the upper troposphere, these gravity waves can provide a lift of unstable air to release instabilities in the troposphere thus initiating convection to form cloud/precipitation bands

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron

2016-03-01

Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.

Analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall trends in Sicily during the 1921-2012 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liuzzo, Lorena; Bono, Enrico; Sammartano, Vincenzo; Freni, Gabriele

2016-10-01

Precipitation patterns worldwide are changing under the effects of global warming. The impacts of these changes could dramatically affect the hydrological cycle and, consequently, the availability of water resources. In order to improve the quality and reliability of forecasting models, it is important to analyse historical precipitation data to account for possible future changes. For these reasons, a large number of studies have recently been carried out with the aim of investigating the existence of statistically significant trends in precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, the existence of statistically significant trends in rainfall from observational datasets, which were measured by 245 rain gauges over Sicily (Italy) during the 1921-2012 period, was investigated. Annual, seasonal and monthly time series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric statistical test to detect statistically significant trends at local and regional scales, and their significance levels were assessed. Prior to the application of the Mann-Kendall test, the historical dataset was completed using a geostatistical spatial interpolation technique, the residual ordinary kriging, and then processed to remove the influence of serial correlation on the test results, applying the procedure of trend-free pre-whitening. Once the trends at each site were identified, the spatial patterns of the detected trends were examined using spatial interpolation techniques. Furthermore, focusing on the 30 years from 1981 to 2012, the trend analysis was repeated with the aim of detecting short-term trends or possible changes in the direction of the trends. Finally, the effect of climate change on the seasonal distribution of rainfall during the year was investigated by analysing the trend in the precipitation concentration index. The application of the Mann-Kendall test to the rainfall data provided evidence of a general decrease in precipitation in Sicily during the

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Methods Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Results Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Conclusion Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of

Procedural trends, outcomes, and readmission rates pre-and post-FDA approval for MitraClip from the National Readmission Database (2013-14).

PubMed

Panaich, Sidakpal S; Arora, Shilpkumar; Badheka, Apurva; Kumar, Varun; Maor, Elad; Raphael, Claire; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Reeder, Guy; Eleid, Mackram; Rihal, Charanjit S

2018-05-01

There are sparse clinical data on the procedural trends, outcomes and readmission rates following FDA approval and expansion of Transcatheter mitral valve repair/MitraClip ® . Whether a complex new technology can be disseminated safely and quickly is controversial. The study cohort was derived from the National Readmission Data (NRD) 2013-14. MitraClip ® was identified using appropriate International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) codes. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital mortality + procedural complications. Secondary outcome included 30-day readmissions. Hierarchical two level logistic models were used to evaluate study outcomes. Our analysis included 2003 MitraClip ® procedures. Overall in-hospital mortality was 3.9%. As expected, there was a significant increase in procedural volume post-FDA approval. Importantly, a corresponding downward trend in mortality and procedural complications was observed. Significant predictors of in-hospital mortality and procedural complications included the use of vasopressors (P <0.001) and hemodynamic support (P < 0.001). Higher hospital volume (≥10 MitraClips/year) was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and complications (P = 0.02). There were 304 (15.1%) 30-day readmissions, with heart failure being the most common cause of readmission. Elective procedures had lower in-hospital mortality (P < 0.001) and lower readmission rates (P = 0.011) compared with nonelective procedures. A significant increase in MitraClip ® procedural volumes occurred post-FDA approval. Overall morbidity and mortality were low and trended downwards. Hospital procedure volume ≥10 cases were associated with lower mortality and overall complication rates. These data suggest a successful roll out of a very complex novel structural heart procedure. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alory, Gaël; Wijffels, Susan; Meyers, Gary

2007-01-01

The linear trends in oceanic temperature from 1960 to 1999 are estimated using the new Indian Ocean Thermal Archive (IOTA), a compilation of historical temperature profiles. Widespread surface warming is found, as in other data sets, and reproduced in IPCC climate model simulations for the 20th century. This warming is particularly large in the subtropics, and extends down to 800 m around 40-50°S. Models suggest the deep-reaching subtropical warming is related to a 0.5° southward shift of the subtropical gyre driven by a strengthening of the westerly winds, and associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode index. In the tropics, IOTA shows a subsurface cooling corresponding to a shoaling of the thermocline and increasing vertical stratification. Most models suggest this trend in the tropical Indian thermocline is likely associated with the observed weakening of the Pacific trade winds and transmitted to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian throughflow.

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Observations of resistance through minimum inhibitory concentrations trends for respiratory specimens of commonly isolated organisms.

PubMed

Gillard, Christopher J; Al-Dahir, Sara; Brakta, Fatima

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) trends among common bacterial organisms found in respiratory isolates in the trauma intensive care unit setting. In this retrospective observational study, MIC data was reviewed over a three year period from January 2009 to December 2011 for the three most frequently identified organisms isolated from respiratory specimens in a trauma intensive care unit along with corresponding hospital data. The most frequently isolated bacterial species identified were Staphylococcus aureus (229 isolates), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (129 isolates), and Acinetobacter species (87 isolates) in the analysis within our institution from 2009-2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for the analyzed organisms. For Pseudomonas isolates, observed sensitivities were as high as 100% for antibiotics ciprofloxacin and imipenem in 2009, but decreased over the next two years in 2010 and 2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for Acinetobacter over the three year period for the antibiotics tested. The MIC data for most Staphylococcus aureus isolates over the three years were sensitive to vancomycin with little change in the observed MIC data. The data reported is observational and indicates the need for future studies to establish a valid relationship of the MIC data over time in our institution particularly among our gram negative organisms, to monitor patterns of antimicrobial resistance. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinpashoh, Y.; Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S.; Rasouli, A. A.; Foroughi, M.; Singh, V. P.

2018-04-01

Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the main elements when computing agricultural irrigation requirements and scheduling. All climatic parameters as well as ET0 are influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is trend analysis of monthly and annual ET0 time series in the west and NW of Iran. Values of ET0 are estimated at 36 selected stations, using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method. Then, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) method was used to detect trends. The slopes of trend lines are estimated using Sen's estimator approach. Results showed that about 86%of the monthly ET0 time series had upward trends of which 35.6 and 43% were significant at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively, 47.4% exhibited a significant upward trend at the 10% level. In contrast, less than 0.7% of the whole monthly ET0 time series showed a significant downward trend (α < 0.01). Only 1.1% of the monthly ET0 time series had significant downward trends (α < 0.10). The strongest positive upward trend (significant at the 0.01 level) was detected in August at the Kermanshah station. However, the strongest negative downward trend belonged to the Khodabandeh station. The steepest upward and downward monthly ET0 slopes were observed at Maragheh and Khodabandeh stations. The magnitude of trends for these two stations are estimated as 2.33 and - 2.01 mm/year, respectively. On an annual timescale, above 94% of the stations had upward trend slopes. About 67% of the total stations exhibited significant trends at the 10% level. Very few sites (2.7%) showed downward annual ET0 trends (α < 0.10). At the annual scale, the first three strongest upward trends belonged to the Kermanshah, Urmia, and Tabriz stations, respectively (α < 0.01). It can be concluded that ET0 in the west and NW of Iran have an increasing trend for most of the stations. Therefore, it is important to use water in a prudent manner in this area.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability to the heat across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Dixon, P. G.

2016-12-01

While human vulnerability to excessive heat has been well documented, relatively few studies have examined long-term trends in vulnerability to heat events. In this research, we examine temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves, defined using three different definitions of heat wave, for the largest 51 metropolitan areas of the US, over a 36-year period (1975-2010). Regardless of the definition of heat wave, an overall decline in heat vulnerability is seen over the period. While in the first years of the study, 18 to 26 metropolitan areas showed statistically significant increases in mortality on heat wave days, by the final decade of the study period, this had decreased to 6 to 7. Within this narrative, however, examining individual metropolitan areas shows greater variability within the downward trend. Several contributing factors to the variability were observed, including the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall heat wave-mortality relationship, and the frequency of heat events over a given period. These broad decreases in heat vulnerability, while encouraging, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. With society aging, there will be a greater number of highly susceptible individuals in the future; further adaptation gains are difficult in many places as air conditioning is now available in most homes in the US. Further, increased use of air conditioning has been associated with a stronger heat island; which, moving forward, is likely to occur alongside a greater number of heat events.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Upward And Downward Flame Spreading And Extinction In Partial Gravity Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sacksteder, Kurt R.; Feier, Ioan I.; Ferkul, Paul V.; Kumar, Amit; T'ien, James S.

2003-01-01

The premise of this research effort has been to begin exploring the gap in the literature between studies of material flammability and flame spread phenomena in normal-gravity and those conducted in the microgravity environment, with or without forced flows. From a fundamental point of view, flame spreading in upward (concurrent) buoyant flow is considerably different from concurrent forced flow. The flow accelerates throughout the length of the buoyant flame bringing the streamlines and the flame closer to the fuel surface and strengthening the interaction between the flame and fuel. Forced flows are diverted around the flame and away from the fuel surface, except where the flow might be constrained by a finite duct. The differences may be most clearly felt as the atmospheric conditions, viz. pressure or oxygen content, approach the flammability limit. From a more practical point of view, flame spreading and material flammability behavior have not been studied under the partial gravity conditions that are the natural state in space exploration destinations such as the Moon and Mars. This effort constitutes the beginning of the research needed to engineer fire safety provisions for such future missions. In this program we have performed partial-gravity experiments (from 0.1 to 1 g/g(sub Earth)) considering both upward and downward flame spread over thin solid fuels aboard the NASA KC-135 aircraft. In those tests, the atmospheric pressure and the fuel sample width were varied. Steady flame spread rates and approximate extinction boundaries were determined. Flame images were recorded using video cameras and two-dimensional fuel surface temperature distributions were determined using an IR camera. These results are available, and complement our earlier work in downward spread in partial gravity varying oxygen content. In conjunction with the experiment, three-dimensional models of flame spreading in buoyant flow have been developed. Some of the computed results on

Secular trend of sex ratio and symptom patterns among children with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Baker, Sidney M; Milivojevich, Andrew; Kraycar, Theresa; Holt, Brett; Gade, Satya

2014-05-01

An information technology invention embodied in a website serving the interests of the autism community was designed to "let the data talk." By its use, the authors have detected a downward temporal trend in 2013 in the sex ratio of 2431 members of Autism360.org from a yearly average between 2010 and 2012 of 4.24 to 3.01 in 2013. As of the first two months of 2014, the average sex ratio is 2.69. We report contemporaneous changes in previously reported male vs female symptom patterns. Such changes suggest a convergence in which distinctive severity of certain grouped central nervous, emotional, and immune profile items in females have diminished toward that of males. The data also show correlations among these profile items that add further credence to the sex ratio findings. A wider dispersion of the female data as compared with the male data was found in the year preceding the downward trend in the mean sex ratio. The authors suggest that such a trend toward an increase in the variance of the data points to instability in the biological system-the autism spectrum. We conclude that public policy would be better served by monitoring changes in the standard deviation as compared with the mean in large data sets to better anticipate changes. The findings we report raise questions based on known sex differences in detoxification chemistry. One such question would be whether maternal, fetal, or individual exposure to a novel environmental factor may have breached the taller fence of female protection from toxins.

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Loyola, Diego

2018-01-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of

Critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon on a downward facing curved surface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheung, F.B.; Haddad, K.H.; Liu, Y.C.

1997-06-01

This report describes a theoretical and experimental study of the boundary layer boiling and critical heat flux phenomena on a downward facing curved heating surface, including both hemispherical and toroidal surfaces. A subscale boundary layer boiling (SBLB) test facility was developed to measure the spatial variation of the critical heat flux and observe the underlying mechanisms. Transient quenching and steady-state boiling experiments were performed in the SBLB facility under both saturated and subcooled conditions to obtain a complete database on the critical heat flux. To complement the experimental effort, an advanced hydrodynamic CHF model was developed from the conservation lawsmore » along with sound physical arguments. The model provides a clear physical explanation for the spatial variation of the CHF observed in the SBLB experiments and for the weak dependence of the CHF data on the physical size of the vessel. Based upon the CHF model, a scaling law was established for estimating the local critical heat flux on the outer surface of a heated hemispherical vessel that is fully submerged in water. The scaling law, which compares favorably with all the available local CHF data obtained for various vessel sizes, can be used to predict the local CHF limits on large commercial-size vessels. This technical information represents one of the essential elements that is needed in assessing the efficacy of external cooling of core melt by cavity flooding as a severe accident management strategy. 83 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Characteristics of downward leaders in a cloud-to-ground lightning strike on a lightning rod

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Caixia; Sun, Zhuling; Jiang, Rubin; Tian, Yangmeng; Qie, Xiushu

2018-05-01

A natural downward negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was observed at a close distance of 370 m by using electric field change measurements and a high-speed camera at 5400 frames per second (fps). Two subsequent leader-return strokes of the lightning hit a lightning rod installed on the top of a seven-story building in Beijing city, while the grounding point for the stepped leader-first return stroke was 12 m away, on the roof of the building. The 2-D average speed of the downward stepped leader (L1) before the first return stroke (R1) was approximately 5.1 × 104 m/s during its propagation over the 306 m above the building, and those before the subsequent strokes (R2 and R3) ranged from 1.1 × 106 m/s to 2.2 × 106 m/s. An attempted leader (AL) occurred 201 ms after R1 and 10 ms before R2 reached approximately 99 m above the roof and failed to connect to the ground. The 2-D average speed of the AL was approximately 7.4 × 104 m/s. The luminosity at tip of the leader was brighter than the channel behind it. The leader inducing the R2 with an alteration of terminating point was a dart-stepped leader (DSL), which propagated through the channel of AL and continued to develop downward with new branches at about 17 m above the roof. The 2-D speed of the DSL at the bottom 99 m was 6.6 × 105 m/s. The average time interval between the stepped pulses of the DSL was approximately 10 μs, smaller than that of L1 with value of about 17 μs. The average step lengths of the DSL were approximately 6.6 m. The study shows that the stepped leader-first return stroke of lightning will not always hit the tip of a tall metal rod due to the significant branching property of the leader. However, under certain conditions, the subsequent return strokes may alter the grounding point to the tip of a tall metal rod. For the lightning rod, the protection against subsequent return strokes may be better than that against the first return stroke.

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Evidence for explosive chromospheric evaporation in a solar flare observed with SMM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zarro, D. M.; Saba, J. L. R.; Strong, K. T.; Canfield, R. C.; Metcalf, T.

1986-01-01

SMM soft X-ray data and Sacramento Peak Observatory H-alpha observations are combined in a study of the impulsive phase of a solar flare. A blue asymmetry, indicative of upflow motions, was observed in the coronal Ca XIX line during the soft X-ray rise phase. H-alpha redshifts, indicative of downward motions, were observed simultaneously in bright flare kernels during the period of hard X-ray emission. It is shown that, to within observational errors, the impulsive phase momentum transported by the upflowing soft X-ray plasma is equivalent to that of the downward moving chromospheric material.

Streamflow and water-quality trends of the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, northern and central New Mexico, water years 1985 to 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langman, Jeff B.; Nolan, Emma O.

2005-01-01

The City of Albuquerque plans to divert San Juan-Chama Project water from the Rio Grande for potable water use. This report examines streamflow and water-quality trends in the Rio Chama and the Rio Grande for water years 1985 to 2002 following the implementation of reservoir storage agreements in northern and central New Mexico. Streamflow/water-quality stations used for this study include the Rio Grande stations of Taos, Otowi, San Felipe, and Albuquerque and the Rio Chama station of Chamita. Water years 1985 to 2002 were a period of larger than average precipitation and streamflow compared to the stations. historical averages. Annual precipitation and streamflow trended downward during the study period because of a drought during 1999 to 2002. Streamflow in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande was divided into three distinct seasonal periods that corresponded to natural and anthropogenic influences: fall/winter baseflow (November through February), snowmelt runoff (March through June), and the irrigation/monsoon (July through October) seasons. A calcium bicarbonate water type was evident at all study area stations on the Rio Chama and Rio Grande. Specific conductance increased downstream, but alkalinity and pH did not substantially change in the downstream direction. Nearly all nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations were less than 1 milligram per liter for all stations. Median trace-element concentrations and maximum radionuclide concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Anthropogenic compounds were infrequently detected in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande, and concentrations did not exceed drinking-water standards. Water quality in the Rio Chama and Rio Grande varied spatially and temporally during water years 1985 to 2002. Specific conductance increased downstream in the Rio Grande during the fall/winter baseflow and snowmelt runoff seasons but was similar at the Taos, Otowi, and San Felipe stations during the irrigation/monsoon season. This similarity was a

Current trends in Natural Gas Flaring Observed from Space with VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhizhin, M. N.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2017-12-01

The five-year survey of natural gas flaring in 2012-2016 has been completed with nighttime Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. The survey identifies flaring site locations, annual duty cycle, and provides an estimate of the flared gas volumes in methane equivalents. VIIRS is particularly well-.suited for detecting and measuring the radiant emissions from gas flares through the collection of shortwave and near-infrared data at night, recording the peak radiant emissions from flares. The total flared gas volume is estimated at 140 +/-30 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year, corresponding to 3.5% of global natural gas production. While Russia leads in terms of flared gas volume (>20 BCM), the U.S. has the largest number of flares (8,199 of 19,057 worldwide). The two countries have opposite trends in flaring: while for the U.S. the peak was reached in 2015, for Russia it was the minimum. On the regional scale in the U.S., Texas has the maximum number of flares (3749), with North Dakota, the second highest, having one half of this number (2,003). The number of flares for most of the states has decreased in the last 3 years following the trend in oil prices. The presentation will compare the global estimates, and regional trends observed in the U.S. regions. Preliminary estimates for global gas flaring in 2017 will be presented

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Coral proxy record of decadal-scale reduction in base flow from Moloka'i, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prouty, Nancy G.; Jupiter, Stacy D.; Field, Michael E.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2009-01-01

Groundwater is a major resource in Hawaii and is the principal source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. With a growing population, a long-term downward trend in rainfall, and the need for proper groundwater management, a better understanding of the hydroclimatological system is essential. Proxy records from corals can supplement long-term observational networks, offering an accessible source of hydrologic and climate information. To develop a qualitative proxy for historic groundwater discharge to coastal waters, a suite of rare earth elements and yttrium (REYs) were analyzed from coral cores collected along the south shore of Moloka'i, Hawaii. The coral REY to calcium (Ca) ratios were evaluated against hydrological parameters, yielding the strongest relationship to base flow. Dissolution of REYs from labradorite and olivine in the basaltic rock aquifers is likely the primary source of coastal ocean REYs. There was a statistically significant downward trend (−40%) in subannually resolved REY/Ca ratios over the last century. This is consistent with long-term records of stream discharge from Moloka'i, which imply a downward trend in base flow since 1913. A decrease in base flow is observed statewide, consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the state. With greater demands on freshwater resources, it is appropriate for withdrawal scenarios to consider long-term trends and short-term climate variability. It is possible that coral paleohydrological records can be used to conduct model-data comparisons in groundwater flow models used to simulate changes in groundwater level and coastal discharge.

Water, energy and agricultural landuse trends at Shiroro hydropower station and environs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegun, Olubunmi; Ajayi, Olalekan; Badru, Gbolahan; Odunuga, Shakirudeen

2018-02-01

The study examines the interplay among water resources, hydropower generation and agricultural landuse at the Shiroro hydropower station and its environs, in north-central Nigeria. Non-parametric trend analysis, hydropower footprint estimation, reservoir performance analysis, change detection analysis, and inferential statistics were combined to study the water-energy and food security nexus. Results of Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator for the period 1960 to 2013 showed a declining rainfall trend at Jos, around River Kaduna headwaters at -2.6 mm yr-1, while rainfall at Kaduna and Minna upstream and downstream of the reservoir respectively showed no trend. Estimates of hydropower footprint varied between 130.4 and 704.1 m3 GJ-1 between 1995 and 2013. Power generation reliability and resilience of the reservoir was 31.6 and 38.5 % respectively with year 2011 being the most vulnerable and least satisfactory. In addition to poor reliability and resilience indices, other challenges militating against good performance of hydropower generation includes population growth and climate change issues as exemplified in the downward trend observed at the headwaters. Water inflow and power generation shows a weak positive relationship with correlation coefficient (r) of 0.48, indicating less than optimal power generation. Total area of land cultivated increased from 884.59 km2 in 1986 prior to the commissioning of the hydropower station to 1730.83 km2 in 2016 which signifies an increased contribution of the dam to ensuring food security. The reality of reducing upstream rainfall amount coupled with high water footprint of electricity from the reservoir, therefore requires that a long term roadmap to improve operational coordination and management have to be put in place.

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jongeward, Andrew R.; Li, Zhanqing; He, Hao; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2016-01-01

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Trends in Condom Use and Risk Behaviours after Sexual Exposure to HIV: A Seven-Year Observational Study

PubMed Central

Casalino, Enrique; Choquet, Christophe; Leleu, Agathe; Hellmann, Romain; Wargon, Mathias; Juillien, Gaelle; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Bouvet, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine the trends in numbers and percentages of sexually exposed persons to HIV (SE) consulting an ED for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), as well as predictors of condom use. Study Design We conducted a prospective-observational study. Methods We included all SE attendances in our Emergency Department (ED) during a seven-year study-period (2006–2012). Trends were analyzed using time-series analysis. Logistic Regression was used to define indicators of condom use. Results We enrolled 1851 SE: 45.7% reported intercourse without condom-use and 12.2% with an HIV-infected partner. Significant (p<0.01) rising trends were observed in the overall number of SE visits (+75%), notably among men having sex with men (MSM) (+126%). There were rising trends in the number and percentage of those reporting intercourse without condom-use in the entire population +91% (p<0.001) and +1% (p>0.05), in MSM +228% (p<0.001) and +49% (p<0.001), in Heterosexuals +68% (p<0.001) and +10% (p = 0.08). Among MSM, significant rising trends were found in those reporting high-risk behaviours: anal receptive (+450% and +76%) and anal insertive (+l33% and +70%) intercourses. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, heterosexuals, vaginal intercourse, visit during the night-shift and short time delay between SE and ED visit, were significantly associated with condom-use. Conclusion We report an increasing trend in the number of SE, mainly among MSM, and rising trends in high-risk behaviours and unprotected sexual intercourses among MSM. Our results indicate that SE should be considered as a high-risk population for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:25157477

Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993-2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Paniagua, Iván Y.; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

2017-07-01

Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O3 and odd oxygen (O3 + NO2) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in Ox (AVd) are used as a proxy for net O3 production, which is influenced by the NO2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AVd are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AVd values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0.33 ppb yr-1. Overall, from 1993 to 2014, within the MMA, O3 has increased at an average rate of 0.22 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 01), which is in marked contrast with the decline of 1.15 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 001) observed in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) for the same period. No clear trend is observed from 1996 to 2014 within the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA).

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Antecedents and Consequences of the Frequency of Upward and Downward Social Comparisons at Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Douglas J.; Ferris, D. Lance; Heller, Daniel; Keeping, Lisa M.

2007-01-01

The current paper examines the dispositional and situational antecedents, as well as the attitudinal and behavioral consequences, of the frequency of upward and downward social comparisons. We predicted social comparison frequency would be influenced by uncertainty-related antecedents, and that social comparisons in organizations would be…

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

The relative importance of random error and observation frequency in detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-11-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Downward migration of radiocesium in an abandoned paddy soil after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

PubMed

Takahashi, Junko; Wakabayashi, Shokichi; Tamura, Kenji; Onda, Yuichi

2018-02-01

After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on March 2011, continuous monitoring of the detailed vertical distribution of radiocesium in soil is required to evaluate the fate of radiocesium and establish strategies for remediation and management of the contaminated land. It is especially important to investigate paddy soil because little knowledge has been accumulated for paddy soil and wetland rice is a major staple in Japan. Therefore, we monitored the vertical distribution of 137 Cs in abandoned paddy soil in a planned evacuation zone from June 2011 to March 2016. The decontamination works (i.e., 5 cm of surface soil removal and re-covering with uncontaminated soil) were conducted by the government in 2015. As a result of monitoring, the 137 Cs gradually migrated downward with time and the 137 Cs concentration in the 0-10 cm soil was almost homogenous in October 2014, although it was non-cultivated. The liner relationship was obtained between the median depth, which is the thickness of a soil layer containing half of the total 137 Cs inventory, and the time after the accident, indicating the migration rate was constant (1.3 cm y -1 ) before the decontamination works. After the decontamination works, the 137 Cs concentration in the uppermost surface layer was reduced by 90%, however the total 137 Cs inventory was reduced by only 50-70%. It was shown that the efficiency of 137 Cs removal by the decontamination works decrease linearly over time in fields like the studied paddy, in which the homogenization of 137 Cs concentration occurred. Conversely, the downward migration of 137 Cs to subsurface layers deeper than 10 cm (i.e., plowpan layer) with low permeability rarely occurred. It is expected that these unique trends in distribution and migration of 137 Cs would be found in abandoned paddy soils with properties similar to the studied soil, sandy loam but poorly drained because of the low permeable plowpan layer, although further validation is

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

The foliar uptake and downward translocation of trichloroethylene and 1,2,3-trichlorobenzene in air-plant-water systems.

PubMed

Su, Yuhong; Liang, Yongchao

2013-05-15

The foliar uptake and downward translocation of trichloroethylene (TCE) and 1,2,3-trichlorobenzene (TCB) in wheat, corn, and tomato seedlings were investigated following 2-48-h exposure of the plant shoots to vapor-contaminated air. The results showed that both TCE and TCB could be rapidly transported from air to plant rhizosphere solution through the foliar uptake and downward transport; the TCE and TCB concentrations in rhizosphere solutions increased with exposure time and external contaminant concentration. Among the three plant species studied, the TCE and TCB downward transport followed the order of wheat>tomato>corn. The transport efficiency of TCE by the three plants was far greater than that of TCB. With a 24-h uptake time, the amounts of TCE transported into the rhizosphere solution by wheat, tomato, and corn seedlings were 2.39 ± 0.42, 1.50 ± 0.22 and 1.45 ± 0.08 μg TCE per gram of fresh weight biomass, respectively, when the initial external TCE concentration was set at 12 mg l(-1). In a 48-h uptake experiment with corn seedlings, the TCE concentration in the rhizosphere solutions was lower in the TCE-TCB mixture system than in the single TCE system, whereas there was no significant difference in TCB concentration between the single TCB and TCE-TCB mixture systems at 48 h. The downward transport processes of TCE were inhibited, while those of TCB were enhanced in the mixed contaminant system within a 48-h uptake time. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Federal R&D funding: 10-year trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Peter M.

Research and development (R&D) funded by the federal government has grown steadily since 1971, according to the National Science Foundation (NSF). The total federal R&D funding gained at an annual rate of 8.6% in actual dollars. Substantial gains, on the order of 15% over 1981, had originally been planned but later revised downward, close to 0%, for the fiscal year 1982. The essential features of the 10-year trend are that federal R&D funding has been mostly directed toward the military—over twice the amount of all other types of R&D funding—and while military research funding is accelerating sharply, other research funding is on the decline. In simple terms, the 10-year increases are only for national defense.

A database on downward shortwave radiation for Africa and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefevre, M.; Cros, S.; Albuisson, M.; Wald, L.

2003-04-01

comparisons between satellite-derived assessments and measurements performed in the world radiation network in Europe and Africa. The results depend upon the number of pixels whose values are averaged for the comparison with the irradiation measurements. The satellite data are in B2 format. This format results from a sub-sampling of the high-resolution data. Briefly written, one pixel out of six original pixels is kept. Estimates at the geographical locations of the stations are therefore produced by spatial interpolation [15]. These estimates were compared to observations made by 60 stations in Europe and 30 stations in Africa for one year, July 1994 to June 1995. The bias and root mean square error (RMSE) for the assessment of the irradiance for a month are better than respectively 3 and 17 W m-2 on cells of 5' of arc angle in size (approx. 10 km at mid-latitude). The RMSE decreases down to 9 W m-2 if assessments are averaged over cells of 0.5° of arc angle. Data in B2 format were collected from Eumetsat. They were quality-controlled and calibrated. The method Heliosat-II is being operated to produce a database of SW downward radiation for the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, Europe and Africa from 1985 onwards and for each day. This database is accessible through the SoDa service on a free basis [16] (http://www.soda-is.com). Further, tools are available through this service to estimate longwave downward irradiance and net irradiance from the SW downward irradiance. The Heliosat-II method can be operated in real-time. When applied to Meteosat data (MOP and MSG), it produces maps of downward SW irradiance within the hour following the acquisition. 1 Perez R., Seals R., Zelenka A., 1997, Comparing satellite remote sensing and ground network measurements for the production of site/time specific irradiance data, Solar Energy, 60, 89-96. 2 Zelenka A., Perez R., Seals R., and Renné D., 1999, Effective accuracy of satellite-derived hourly irradiances, Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Effect of Longitudinal Oscillations on Downward Flame Spread over Thin Solid Fuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nayagam, Vedha; Sacksteder, Kurt

2013-01-01

Downward flame spread rates over vertically vibrated thin fuel samples are measured in air at one atmospheric pressure under normal gravity. Unlike flame spread against forced-convective flows, the present results show that with increasing vibration acceleration the flame spread rate increases before being blown off at high acceleration levels causing flame extinction. A simple scaling analysis seems to explain this phenomenon, which may have important implications to flammability studies including in microgravity environments.

Quantum reflection in the linearly downward potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamnan, N.; Krunavakarn, B.

2017-09-01

In this work, the motion of a particle in one dimension under the influence of the linearly downward potential well is studied within the context of the non-relativistic quantum mechanics. The attention is paid on the paradoxical phenomenon of the reflection of a particle that is in contrast between classical and quantum physics. Classically, the reflection effect occurs only at a potential barrier. To demonstrate such counter-intuitive phenomenon, the Schrödinger equation is solved to obtain the reflection coefficient in the scattering state by considering an incident particle that is represented by a monochromatic plane wave having an energy E > 0, propagates freely from left to right, pass through the potential well. The continuity conditions at boundaries give the desired result that is expressed in terms of the Airy functions which depends on the incident energy E, the strength jV 0 j and the range L of the well. The value of the reflection coefficient R lies in the interval 0 < R < 1, and its behavior is the decreasing function with respect to the range L.

Implications of the lack of global dimming and brightening in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2017-12-01

The global temperature trend of the last half-century is widely believed to be the result of two opposing effects; aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the radiative effect of increasing GHG concentrations is well-constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, in part because observational constraints on the latter are lacking. However, long-term surface measurements of downward solar radiation (DSRS), an often-used proxy for aerosol radiative forcing, are available worldwide from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA). We compare DSRS changes from 1,300 GEBA stations to those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, sampled only when/where observations are available. The observed DSRS shows a strong early (1964-1990) downward trend, followed by a weaker regional trend reversal. Regional emission data for aerosols and aerosol precursors suggest that the culprit for both features was changes to the atmospheric aerosol loading. In contrast, the models show weak or negligible DSRS trends, suggesting a too weak aerosol forcing. We present sensitivity studies with a single model (CESM1.2) that aim to simultaneously reproduce the observed trends in DSRS and surface temperature.

Temporal trends in organic carbon content in the main Swiss rivers, 1974-2010.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Murillo, J C; Zobrist, J; Filella, M

2015-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have often been reported in rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades. High-quality organic carbon (OC) concentration data have been used to study the change in DOC and total (TOC) organic carbon concentrations in the main rivers of Switzerland (Rhône, Rhine, Thur and Aar) between 1974 and 2010. These rivers are characterized by high discharge regimes (due to their Alpine origin) and by running in populated areas. Small long term trends (a general statistically significant decrease in TOC and a less clear increase in DOC concentrations), on the order of 1% of mean OC concentration per year, have been observed. An upward trend before 1999 reversed direction to a more marked downward trend from 1999 to 2010. Of the potential causes of OC temporal variation analysed (water temperature, dissolved reactive phosphorus and river discharge), only discharge explains a significant, albeit still small, part of TOC variability (8-31%), while accounting for barely 2.5% of DOC variability. Estimated anthropogenic TOC and DOC loads (treated sewage) to the rivers could account for a maximum of 4-20% of the temporal trends. Such low predictability is a good example of the limitations faced when studying causality and drivers behind small variations in complex systems. River export of OC from Switzerland has decreased significantly over the period. Since about 5.5% of estimated NEP of Switzerland is exported by the rivers, riverine OC fluxes should be taken into account in a detailed carbon budget of the country. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observations and theories related to Antarctic ozone changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, D.; Watson, R. T.; Cox, Richard A.; Kolb, C.; Mahlman, J.; Mcelroy, M.; Plumb, A.; Ramanathan, V.; Schoeberl, M.; Solomon, S.

1989-01-01

In 1985, there was a report of a large, sudden, and unanticipated decrease in the abundance of springtime Antarctic ozone over the last decade. By 1987, ozone decreases of more than 50 percent in the total column, and 95 percent locally between 15 and 20 km, had been observed. The scientific community quickly rose to the challenge of explaining this remarkable discovery; theoreticians soon developed a series of chemical and dynamical hypotheses to explain the ozone loss. Three basic theories were proposed to explain the springtime ozone hole. (1) The ozone hole is caused by the increasing atmospheric loadings of manmade chemicals containing chlorine (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's) and bromine (halons)). These chemicals efficiently destroy ozone in the lower stratosphere in the Antarctic because of the special geophysical conditions, of an isolated air mass (polar vortex) with very cold temperatures, that exist there. (2) The circulation of the atmosphere in spring has changed from being predominantly downward over Antarctica to upward. This would mean that ozone poor air from the troposphere, instead of ozone rich air from the upper stratosphere, would be transported into the lower Antarctic stratosphere. (3) The abundance of the oxides of nitrogen in the lower Antarctic stratosphere is periodically enhanced by solar activity. Nitrogen oxides are produced in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere and then transported downward into the lower stratosphere in Antarctica, resulting in the chemical destruction of ozone. The climatology and trends of ozone, temperature, and polar stratospheric clouds are discussed. Also, the transport and chemical theories for the Antarctic ozone hole are presented.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover

Monitoring progress in population health: trends in premature death rates.

PubMed

Remington, Patrick L; Catlin, Bridget B; Kindig, David A

2013-12-26

Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, "bending the curve"). Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (-3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (-2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (-0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by -1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health.

Monitoring Progress in Population Health: Trends in Premature Death Rates

PubMed Central

Catlin, Bridget B.; Kindig, David A.

2013-01-01

Introduction Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. Methods To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, “bending the curve”). Results Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (−3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (−2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (−0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by −1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Discussion Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health. PMID:24370109

Downward pumping of magnetic flux as the cause of filamentary structures in sunspot penumbrae.

PubMed

Thomas, John H; Weiss, Nigel O; Tobias, Steven M; Brummell, Nicholas H

2002-11-28

The structure of a sunspot is determined by the local interaction between magnetic fields and convection near the Sun's surface. The dark central umbra is surrounded by a filamentary penumbra, whose complicated fine structure has only recently been revealed by high-resolution observations. The penumbral magnetic field has an intricate and unexpected interlocking-comb structure and some field lines, with associated outflows of gas, dive back down below the solar surface at the outer edge of the spot. These field lines might be expected to float quickly back to the surface because of magnetic buoyancy, but they remain submerged. Here we show that the field lines are kept submerged outside the spot by turbulent, compressible convection, which is dominated by strong, coherent, descending plumes. Moreover, this downward pumping of magnetic flux explains the origin of the interlocking-comb structure of the penumbral magnetic field, and the behaviour of other magnetic features near the sunspot.

Quantifying the Uncertainties of Reanalyzed Arctic Cloud-radiation Properties Using Satellite-surface Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Dolinar, E. K.; Stanfield, R.

2015-12-01

Cloud and radiation processes are very important issues in Arctic climate system. Reanalyses have proved to be the essential tools to study extreme weather and climate events, especially in data-sparse region like the Arctic. Before using reanalyses products, their strengths and uncertainties should be identified. In this study, five recent reanalyses (JRA55, 20CR V2c, CFSR, ERA-Interim and MERRA) are compared with NASA CERES satellite observations with respect of cloud fraction (CF), top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface longwave (LW)/shortwave (SW) radiation fluxes during the period of 03/2000-02/2012 over the Arctic (70-90°N). 20CR V2c, CFSR, ERA-Interim and MERRA overestimate CFs, particularly during the cold season, with the positive biases of annual means from +9.6% (MERRA) to +22.9% (20CR V2c). Only JRA55 can represent its overall seasonal variation and spatial distribution but with large negative biases (nearly -15%). All reanalyses can well capture the seasonal trend of TOA SW/LW upwelling fluxes. However, in all-sky condition, all of them show positive biases of TOA SW upwelling flux along northern and eastern coasts in Greenland during the warm season (JJA). There is a good agreement between reanalyses and observation in seasonal cycle of net TOA cloud radiative effects (CRE), which are calculated by TOA SW/LW fluxes. The spatial distributions of net TOA CRE in warm season show that only JRA55 and ERA-Interim are relatively consistent with their reanalyzed CFs. As for the surface radiation, the satellite-derived results were firstly validated by Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) ground-based observations. It illustrates that average biases of satellite retrievals are +9.85 W/m2 for surface downward SW flux and +0.39 W/m2 for downward LW flux in warm season within the Arctic. The seasonal variation of SW/LW fluxes can be well represented by four of five reanalyses except MERRA. Reanalyzed surface downward SW flux in JRA55, CFSR and ERA-Interim are

Tropospheric ozone long term trend observed by lidar and ECC ozonesondes at Observatoire de Haute Provence, Southern France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

Identification of nitrate long term trends in Loire-Brittany river district (France) in connection with hydrogeological contexts, agricultural practices and water table level variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, B.; Baran, N.; Bourgine, B.; Ratheau, D.

2009-04-01

-Brittany superficial aquifers. The nitrate dataset shows too many irregularities to employ traditional time-series approaches such as linear regression trend tests. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test is a robust statistical trend detection test that does not require verification of the normality of the dataset (Aguilar et al, 2007). Moreover, this test seems appropriate since it is less sensitive to missing or outlier data than a simple linear regression test. As the MK test can only detect monotonic trends, and as already done by Stuart et al., (2007) and Broers and Van der Grift (2004), the trend analyses are decennially partitioned in order to identify possible trend reversals for the studied period for each observation point. The trend identification is then spatialized by the use of the Kendall Regional (KR) test on homogenous zones characterized by their geology, their agricultural practices and their piezometric behaviour. The KR test, previously used by Frans and Helsel (2005) in the Columbia Basin Ground Water context, is quite similar to the MK test and consists of the creation of virtual regional boreholes using networks of boreholes located in the homogenous zones. This test allows the identification of regional monotonic trends, even in the zones where nitrate time-series are too small to detect significant trend per observation point. The MK test results show significant upward trends in nitrate concentrations in the Loire-Brittany superficial aquifers when the test is computed on the 1945-2007 period. However, the decennial MK test shows different behaviours at smaller time scale. Some zones are characterized by a constant and significant increase in nitrate concentrations since 1945 (North-East of Brittany, North of Beauce) whereas others show a trend reversal (South of Brittany, Callovo-Oxfordian marls between Le Mans and Alençon, under covered Jurassic limestone around Poitiers). Furthermore, some rare zones show an increase in nitrate concentrations that

Trend of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases in Iran: Results of the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2010.

PubMed

Sepanlou, Sadaf Ghajarieh; Malekzadeh, Fatemeh; Naghavi, Mohsen; Forouzanfar, Mohammad Hossein; Shahraz, Saeid; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Malekzadeh, Reza; Poustchi, Hossein

2015-07-01

BACKGROUND The general pattern of epidemiologic transition from communicable to noncommunicable diseases is also observed for gastrointestinal and liver diseases (GILD), which constitute a heterogeneous array of causes of death and disability. We aimed to describe the trend of GILD in Iran based on the global burden of disease (GBD2010) study from 1990 to 2010. METHODS The trend of number of deaths, disability, adjusted life years (DALYs) and their age-standardized rates caused by 5 major GILD have been reported. The change in the rankings of major causes of death and DALY has been described as well. RESULTS The age standardized rates of death and DALYs in both sexes have decreased from 1990 to 2010 for most GILD. The most prominent decreases in death rates are observed for diarrheal diseases, gastritis and duodenitis, and peptic ulcer disease. Positive trends are observed for liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, and gall bladder cancer. Diarrheal diseases have retained their 1st rank among children under 5. Among adults, decreased ranks are observed for diarrheal diseases, appendicitis, gastritis and duodenitis, gall bladder diseases, pancreatitis, and all types of cirrhosis. The trends in age standardized rates of DALYs, deaths, and YLLs are negative for almost all GILD, and especially for diarrheal diseases. However, there is no upward or downward trend in rates of years lost due to disability (YLDs) for most diseases. Total numbers of DALYs and deaths due to acute hepatitis C, stomach cancer, and liver cancers are rising. The total DALYs due to overall digestive diseases except cirrhosis and DALYs due to cirrhosis are both somehow stable. No data has been reported for GILD that are mainly diagnosed in outpatient settings, including gastroesophageal reflux disease, irritable bowel syndrome, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. CONCLUSION The results of GBD 2010 demonstrate that the rates of most GILD are decreasing in Iran but total DALYs are somehow stable

Acoustic and optical variations during rapid downward motion episodes in the deep north-western Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Haren, H.; Taupier-Letage, I.; Aguilar, J. A.; Albert, A.; Anghinolfi, M.; Anton, G.; Anvar, S.; Ardid, M.; Assis Jesus, A. C.; Astraatmadja, T.; Aubert, J.-J.; Auer, R.; Baret, B.; Basa, S.; Bazzotti, M.; Bertin, V.; Biagi, S.; Bigongiari, C.; Bou-Cabo, M.; Bouwhuis, M. C.; Brown, A.; Brunner, J.; Busto, J.; Camarena, F.; Capone, A.; Carminati, G.; Carr, J.; Castel, D.; Castorina, E.; Cavasinni, V.; Cecchini, S.; Charvis, Ph.; Chiarusi, T.; Circella, M.; Coniglione, R.; Costantini, H.; Cottini, N.; Coyle, P.; Curtil, C.; de Bonis, G.; Decowski, M. P.; Dekeyser, I.; Deschamps, A.; Distefano, C.; Donzaud, C.; Dornic, D.; Drouhin, D.; Eberl, T.; Emanuele, U.; Ernenwein, J.-P.; Escoffier, S.; Fehr, F.; Flaminio, V.; Fratini, K.; Fritsch, U.; Fuda, J.-L.; Giacomelli, G.; Gómez-González, J. P.; Graf, K.; Guillard, G.; Halladjian, G.; Hallewell, G.; Heijboer, A. J.; Hello, Y.; Hernández-Rey, J. J.; Hößl, J.; de Jong, M.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kalekin, O.; Kappes, A.; Katz, U.; Kooijman, P.; Kopper, C.; Kouchner, A.; Kretschmer, W.; Lahmann, R.; Lamare, P.; Lambard, G.; Larosa, G.; Laschinsky, H.; Lefèvre, D.; Lelaizant, G.; Lim, G.; Lo Presti, D.; Loehner, H.; Loucatos, S.; Lucarelli, F.; Lyons, K.; Mangano, S.; Marcelin, M.; Margiotta, A.; Martinez-Mora, J. A.; Maurin, G.; Mazure, A.; Melissas, M.; Montaruli, T.; Morganti, M.; Moscoso, L.; Motz, H.; Naumann, C.; Neff, M.; Ostasch, R.; Palioselitis, G.; Păvălaş, G. E.; Payre, P.; Petrovic, J.; Piattelli, P.; Picot-Clemente, N.; Picq, C.; Pillet, R.; Popa, V.; Pradier, T.; Presani, E.; Racca, C.; Radu, A.; Reed, C.; Riccobene, G.; Richardt, C.; Rujoiu, M.; Russo, G. V.; Salesa, F.; Schoeck, F.; Schuller, J.-P.; Shanidze, R.; Simeone, F.; Spurio, M.; Steijger, J. J. M.; Stolarczyk, Th.; Tamburini, C.; Tasca, L.; Toscano, S.; Vallage, B.; van Elewyck, V.; Vecchi, M.; Vernin, P.; Wijnker, G.; de Wolf, E.; Yepes, H.; Zaborov, D.; Zornoza, J. D.; Zúñiga, J.

2011-08-01

An Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) was moored at the deep-sea site of the ANTARES neutrino telescope near Toulon, France, thus providing a unique opportunity to compare high-resolution acoustic and optical observations between 70 and 170 m above the sea bed at 2475 m. The ADCP measured downward vertical currents of magnitudes up to 0.03 m s-1 in late winter and early spring 2006. In the same period, observations were made of enhanced levels of acoustic reflection, interpreted as suspended particles including zooplankton, by a factor of about 10 and of horizontal currents reaching 0.35 m s-1. These observations coincided with high light levels detected by the telescope, interpreted as increased bioluminescence. During winter 2006 deep dense-water formation occurred in the Ligurian subbasin, thus providing a possible explanation for these observations. However, the 10-20 days quasi-periodic episodes of high levels of acoustic reflection, light and large vertical currents continuing into the summer are not direct evidence of this process. It is hypothesized that the main process allowing for suspended material to be moved vertically later in the year is local advection, linked with topographic boundary current instabilities along the rim of the 'Northern Current'.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975-2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys.

PubMed

Solbraa, Ane Kristiansen; Holme, Ingar Morten; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Resaland, Geir Kåre; Aadland, Eivind; Anderssen, Sigmund Alfred

2014-06-07

Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975-2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP.

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-01-01

A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

Assessment of primary and secondary ambient particle trends using satellite aerosol optical depth and ground speciation data in the New England region, United States

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyung Joo; Kang, Choong-Min; Coull, Brent A.; Bell, Michelle L.; Koutrakis, Petros

2014-01-01

The effectiveness of air pollution emission control policies can be evaluated by examining ambient pollutant concentration trends that are observed at a large number of ground monitoring sites over time. In this paper, we used ground monitoring measurements in conjunction with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to investigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5; particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 μm) trends and their spatial patterns over a large U.S. region, New England, during 2000–2008. We examined the trends in rural and urban areas to get a better insight about the trends of regional and local source emissions. Decreases in PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) were more pronounced in urban areas than in rural ones. In addition, the highest and lowest PM2.5 decreases (μg/m3) were observed for winter and summer, respectively. Together, these findings suggest that primary particle concentrations decreased more relative to secondary ones. This is also supported by the analysis of the speciation data which showed that downward trends of primary pollutants including black carbon were stronger than those of secondary pollutants including sulfate. Furthermore, this study found that ambient primary pollutants decreased at the same rate as their respective source emissions. This was not the case for secondary pollutants which decreased at a slower rate than that of their precursor emissions. This indicates that concentrations of secondary pollutants depend not only on the primary emissions but also on the availability of atmospheric oxidants which might not change during the study period. This novel approach of investigating spatially varying concentration trends, in combination with ground PM2.5 species trends, can be of substantial regulatory importance. PMID:24906074

Unexpected high 35S concentration revealing strong downward transport of stratospheric air during the monsoon transitional period in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Mang; Zhang, Zhisheng; Su, Lin; Su, Binbin; Liu, Lanzhong; Tao, Jun; Fung, Jimmy C. H.; Thiemens, Mark H.

2016-03-01

October is the monsoon transitional period in East Asia (EA) involving a series of synoptic activities that may enhance the downward transport of stratospheric air to the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we use cosmogenic 35S in sulfate aerosols (35SO42-) as a tracer for air masses originating from the stratosphere and transported downward to quantify these mixing processes. From 1 year 35SO42- measurements (March 2014 to February 2015) at a background station in EA we find remarkably enhanced 35SO42- concentration (3150 atoms m-3) in October, the highest value ever reported for natural sulfate aerosols. A four-box 1-D model and meteorological analysis reveal that strong downward transport from the free troposphere is a vital process entraining aged stratospheric air masses to the PBL. The aged stratospheric masses are accumulated in the PBL, accelerating the SO2 transformation to SO42-. Implications for the tropospheric O3 budget and the CO2 biogeochemical cycle are discussed.

Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Mangin, Antoine; Hebel, Pierre; Malléa, Patrick

2010-03-15

There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations and mortality. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of main pollutants, we obtained significant decreasing trends. By considering the ozone mean values in urban areas over the 1997-2005 period, an increase of 3.0% year(-1) was obtained with annual averages and 3.9% year(-1) with median values. A clear increasing trend for PM(10) ambient concentrations is obtained. In addition, we observed an increase of the Olea (and Grass) pollination season. Over the same period, an annual change rate of +0.31% year(-1) for "airway diseases" and of +2.50% year(-1) for "unknown causes" were identified in the "Alpes Maritimes" county. To see the results, there seems to be a short-term link between the levels of these pollutants and mortality for respiratory causes. The other pollutants concentration showed a downward trend reflecting the reduction policy of the emissions. In addition, we obtained significant decreasing trends concerning the "ischemic heart diseases" (-1.20% year(-1)) and "asthma" (-4.03% year(-1)) categories. No significant gender-related difference was identified for these groups.

Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.

2014-12-01

During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due

Three-dimensional canopy fuel loading predicted using upward and downward sensing LiDAR systems

Treesearch

Nicholas S. Skowronski; Kenneth L. Clark; Matthew Duveneck; John. Hom

2011-01-01

We calibrated upward sensing profiling and downward sensing scanning LiDAR systems to estimates of canopy fuel loading developed from field plots and allometric equations, and then used the LiDAR datasets to predict canopy bulk density (CBD) and crown fuel weight (CFW) in wildfire prone stands in the New Jersey Pinelands. LiDAR-derived height profiles were also...

Trends in Streamflow and Nutrient and Suspended-Sediment Concentrations and Loads in the Upper Mississippi, Ohio, Red, and Great Lakes River Basins, 1975-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lorenz, David L.; Robertson, Dale M.; Hall, David W.; Saad, David A.

2009-01-01

. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus concentrations were upward at 24 of 40 sites. Overall trends in total phosphorus concentrations were mixed and showed no spatial pattern. Flow-adjusted and overall trends in dissolved phosphorus concentrations were consistently downward at all of the sites in the eastern part of the basins studied. The reduction in phosphorus fertilizer use and manure production east of the Mississippi River could explain most of the observed trends in dissolved phosphorus. Flow-adjusted trends in total suspended-material concentrations showed distinct spatial patterns of increasing tendencies throughout the western part of the basins studied and in Illinois and decreasing concentrations throughout most of Wisconsin, Iowa, and in the eastern part of the basins studied. Flow-adjusted trends in total phosphorus were strongly related to the flow-adjusted trends in suspended materials. The trends in the flow-adjusted suspended-sediment concentrations from 1993 to 2004 resembled those for suspended materials. The long-term, nonmonotonic trends in total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and suspended-material loads for 1975 to 2003 were described by local regression, LOESS, smoothing for six sites. The statistical significance of those trends cannot be determined; however, the long-term changes found for annual streamflow and load data indicate that the monotonic trends from 1993 to 2004 should not be extrapolated backward in time.

Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

Recent changes in economic development tendencies and environmental protection policies in the East Asian countries raise hopes for improvement of regional air quality in this vast region populated by more than 3 billion people. To recognize anticipated changes in atmospheric pollutants levels, deposition rates and impact on the environment, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) is regularly operating region-wide since 2000 in 13 countries. The network provides continuous monitoring data on the air quality and precipitation (including gas-phase and particulate chemistry) at 55 monitoring sites, including 20 remote and 14 rural sites. Observation of soil and inland water environments are performed at more than 30 monitoring sites [1]. In this study we focus on 1) the data quality assessment and preparation and 2) analysis of temporal trends of compositions observed at selected 26 non-urban EANET stations. Speciation includes gas-phase (SO2, HNO3, HCl, NH3) and particulate matter (SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, NH4+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) abundances analysed in samples collected using filterpack technique with sampling duration/frequency of one-two weeks. Data quality assessment (distribution test and manual inspection) allowed us to remove/repair random and operator errors. Wrong sample timing was found for 0.37% (severe) and 34% (mild inconsistency) of the total of 7630 samples regarded. Erroneous data flagging (e.g. missing or below the detection limit) was repaired for 9.3%, respectively. Some 1.8% of severely affected data were corrected (where possible) or removed. Thus refined 15-year dataset is made available for the scientific community. For convenience, we also provide data in netCDF format (per station or in an assembly). Based on this refined dataset, we performed trend analysis using several statistical approaches including quantile regression which provides robust results against outliers and better understanding of trend

Effects of Crossed Brassiere Straps on Pain, Range of Motion, and Electromyographic Activity of Scapular Upward Rotators in Women With Scapular Downward Rotation Syndrome.

PubMed

Kang, Min-Hyeok; Choi, Ji-Young; Oh, Jae-seop

2015-12-01

Scapular downward rotation syndrome manifests as an abnormally downward-rotated scapula at rest or with arm motion and typically results in neck and shoulder pain. The brassiere strap has been suggested as a possible contributing factor to scapula downward rotation and pain in the upper trapezius because of increased downward rotational force on the lateral aspect of the scapula. No study, however, has examined the influences of a modified brassiere strap on pain in and the function of the scapular muscles. To examine the effects of crossed brassiere straps on the pressure pain threshold (PPT) of the upper trapezius, neck rotation range of motion (ROM), and electromyographic activity of the scapular upward rotators in females with scapular downward rotation syndrome. Cross-over design. Laboratory. In total, 15 female subjects with scapular downward rotation syndrome were recruited at hospitals and a local university. All participants performed neck rotation and humeral elevation under 2 different conditions: parallel and crossed brassiere straps. The PPT of the upper trapezius was measured using an analog algometer, whereas neck rotation ROM was quantified with a 3-dimensional ultrasonic motion analysis system. The electromyographic activities of the upper trapezius, serratus anterior, and lower trapezius during humeral elevation were assessed with a surface electromyography system. Outcome measures were assessed under parallel and crossed brassiere strap conditions, and differences in outcomes between the conditions were analyzed using a paired t-test. The PPT and neck rotation ROM were increased when the subject was wearing the brassiere with crossed versus parallel straps (P < .001). Greater electromyographic activities of the serratus anterior, lower trapezius, and lesser upper trapezius muscles during humeral elevation were found under the crossed strap condition than the parallel strap condition (P < .05). These findings provide useful information for

Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests.

PubMed

Rokni, Ladan; Park, Sam-Hun

2018-02-01

Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was 'health and welfare', followed by 'social science'. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective.

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

Distribution and Downward Movement of Pasteuria penetrans in Field Soil.

PubMed

Cetintas, R; Dickson, D W

2005-06-01

Endospores of Pasteuria penetrans were evaluated for their vertical distribution in field soil and their downward movement through soil in the laboratory. In the field trial, the number of endospores attached to second-stage juveniles (J2) of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 varied greatly in different soil depths. There were higher percentages of J2 with endospores attached in former weed fallow plots during the first 3 years of growing peanut than in former bahiagrass and rhizomal peanut plots (P 0.05). In laboratory trials, P. penetrans endospores were observed to move throughout the soil through the percolation of water. After one application of water, some endospores were detected 25 to 37.5 cm deep. Endospores were present at the greatest depth, 37.5 to 50 cm, after the third application of water. These results indicate that rain or water applications by irrigation are likely to move endospores to deeper levels of the soil, but the majority of endospores remain in the upper 0-to-30-cm depth.

Positive recoil leader in rocket-triggered and tower-initiated lightning flashes as observed by high speed video camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qie, X.; Pu, Y.; Jiang, R.; Liu, M.; Sun, Z.

2017-12-01

Positive recoil leader was observed in both rocket-triggered and tower lightning flashes. The similar processes are observed in all the cases: an initial weakening dart leader propagated downward from the cloud with weak luminosity and terminated finally before reaching the ground. Then the bidirectional leaders started and propagated in the preexisting and decaying channel below the terminated downward dart leader, and the luminosity of the bileader ends was asymmetrical, but both with its tip being the weakest. The upward positive leader end started earlier and fast than the downward negative leader end. The bidirectional leader developed with the positive leader moving upward, along the decayed downward negative leader channel, and the negative leader downward, along the remnants of the channel created by the previous stroke or ICC, and, hence, could be viewed as a kind of recoil leader. However, the polarity of this recoil leader is contrary to the traditional recoil leader with negative leader end retrogressing along an existing positive leader channel. The bidirectional leaders observed herein are new as they are excited by a decayed negative leader with in the preexisting discharge channel, unlike other bidirectional leaders, e.g., the electric breakdown in virgin air or traditional recoil processes formed in a decayed positive leader channel.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier

Stratospheric cooling and downward planetary-wave propagation in the lowermost stratosphere during the 2010-11 winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishii, K.; Nakamura, H.; Orsolini, Y. J.

2012-04-01

Dynamical cooling in the polar stratosphere is induced by weakening of E-P flux convergence (i.e. anomalous divergence) in the stratosphere. As the E-P flux convergence is mainly contributed to by upward planetary-wave (PW) propagation from the troposphere, the intensity of its propagation is well correlated with the E-P flux convergence and the polar stratospheric temperature. Recent studies (Orsolini et al. 2009, QJRMS; Nishii et al. 2010, GRL) pointed out that a tropospheric blocking high over the western Pacific, whose anomalous circulation is projected strongly onto the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern, tends to weaken the upward PW propagation and thus lower the polar stratospheric temperature. In this study, we present a possibility that downward PW propagation in the lowermost stratosphere can also cause the E-P flux divergence in the polar stratosphere and thereby the stratospheric cooling. On the basis of prominent downward events of the 100-hPa E-P flux averaged over the mid- to high-latitudes in the northern hemisphere, we performed a lag composite analysis for each of the terms of the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) equation. In the composite time evolution, downward E-P flux in the lowermost stratosphere and the E-P flux divergence aloft are evident around the reference date, followed by persistent cooling of the polar stratosphere for more than two weeks. About one week before the reference date, enhanced upward E-P flux and its convergence lead to the deceleration of upper-stratospheric zonal winds and thus the weakening of their vertical shear , which may result in the formation of a turning surface for upward-propagating PWs. Our results are overall consistent with Harnik (2009, JGR), who showed that a short pulse of upward-propagating PWs forms a turning surface in the upper stratosphere, where the PWs that subsequently propagate upward can be reflected back. By taking above results into consideration, we analyzed the prolonged cold

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Satellite Observations of NO2 Trend over Romania

PubMed Central

Voiculescu, Mirela; Georgescu, Lucian

2013-01-01

Satellite-based measurements of atmospheric trace gases loading give a realistic image of atmospheric pollution at global, regional, and urban level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the trend of atmospheric NO2 content over Romania for the period 1996–2010 for several regions which are generally characterized by different pollutant loadings, resulting from GOME-1, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. Satellite results are then compared with ground-based in situ measurements made in industrial and relatively clean areas of one major city in Romania. This twofold approach will help in estimating whether the trend of NO2 obtained by means of data satellite retrievals can be connected with the evolution of national industry and transportation. PMID:24453819

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960

DOE PAGES

Smith, Doug M.; Allan, Richard P.; Coward, Andrew C.; ...

2015-02-19

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ~ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Here, we find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31 ± 0.21more » W m -2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. Finally, while present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.« less

Annual exceedance probabilities and trends for peak streamflows and annual runoff volumes for the Central United States during the 2011 floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Driscoll, Daniel G.; Southard, Rodney E.; Koenig, Todd A.; Bender, David A.; Holmes, Robert R.

2014-01-01

indicated less frequent recurrence, with 11 streamgages having AEPs of less than 1 percent. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 05331000 (at Saint Paul, Minnesota) exceeded the previous record (112 years of record) by about 24 percent. An especially newsworthy feature was prolonged flooding along the main stem of the Missouri River downstream from Garrison Dam (located upstream from Bismarck, North Dakota) and extending downstream throughout the length of the Missouri River. The 2011 runoff volume for streamgage 06342500 (at Bismarck) exceeded the previous (1975) maximum by about 50 percent, with an associated AEP in the range of 0.2 to 1 percent. In the Ohio River Basin, peak-streamflow AEPs were less than 2 percent for only four streamgages. Runoff-volume AEPs were less than 2 percent for only three streamgages. Along the lower Mississippi River, the largest streamflow peak in 91 years was recorded for streamgage 07289000 (at Vicksburg, Mississippi), with an associated AEP of 0.8 percent. Trends in peak streamflow were analyzed for 98 streamgages, with 67 streamgages having upward trends, 31 with downward trends, and zero with no trend. Trends in annual runoff volume were analyzed for 182 streamgages, with 145 streamgages having upward trends, 36 with downward trends, and 1 with no trend. The trend analyses used descriptive methods that did not include measures of statistical significance. A dichotomous spatial distribution in trends was apparent for both peak streamflow and annual runoff volume, with a small number of streamgages in the northwestern part of the study area having downward trends and most streamgages in the eastern part of the study area having upward trends.

Is a shift from research on individual medical error to research on health information technology underway? A 40-year analysis of publication trends in medical journals.

PubMed

Erlewein, Daniel; Bruni, Tommaso; Gadebusch Bondio, Mariacarla

2018-06-07

In 1983, McIntyre and Popper underscored the need for more openness in dealing with errors in medicine. Since then, much has been written on individual medical errors. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 21st century, researchers and medical practitioners increasingly approached individual medical errors through health information technology. Hence, the question arises whether the attention of biomedical researchers shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology. We ran a study to determine publication trends concerning individual medical errors and health information technology in medical journals over the last 40 years. We used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) taxonomy in the database MEDLINE. Each year, we analyzed the percentage of relevant publications to the total number of publications in MEDLINE. The trends identified were tested for statistical significance. Our analysis showed that the percentage of publications dealing with individual medical errors increased from 1976 until the beginning of the 21st century but began to drop in 2003. Both the upward and the downward trends were statistically significant (P < 0.001). A breakdown by country revealed that it was the weight of the US and British publications that determined the overall downward trend after 2003. On the other hand, the percentage of publications dealing with health information technology doubled between 2003 and 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (P < 0.001). The identified trends suggest that the attention of biomedical researchers partially shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology in the USA and the UK. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Trends in non-help-seeking for mental disorders in Germany between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Brandstetter, Susanne; Dodoo-Schittko, Frank; Speerforck, Sven; Apfelbacher, Christian; Grabe, Hans-Jörgen; Jacobi, Frank; Hapke, Ulfert; Schomerus, Georg; Baumeister, Sebastian E

2017-08-01

This study sought to examine trends in non-help-seeking for mental disorders among persons with a prevalent mental disorder (12-month prevalence) in Germany between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012. We examined data from 1909 persons aged 18-65 years who participated in two independent, repeated cross-sectional surveys (German National Interview and Examination Study 1997-1999, German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2009-2012) conducted 12 years apart. Prevalent mental disorders (12-month prevalence) were determined using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, which included information on lifetime help-seeking for mental health problems. Correlates of self-reported help-seeking were analyzed according to Andersen's Behavioral Model. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to assess time trends in the directly standardized and model-adjusted prevalence of non-help-seeking across strata of socio-economic and clinical variables. The proportion of people with a prevalent mental disorder who have never sought help in their lifetime decreased significantly from 62% (95% CI 58.7-64.7) to 57% (95% CI 52.2-60.9) between 1997-1999 and 2009-2012 in adults aged 18-65 years in Germany. Downward trends in non-help-seeking occurred in all investigated strata and reached statistical significance in women, in people who were living alone, people with medium educational level, people living in middle-sized communities, people with non-statutory health insurance, smokers, and people with co-existing somatic conditions. Despite a downward trend over the course of 12 years, a large proportion of people suffering from mental disorders are still not seeking treatment in Germany. Further efforts to increase uptake of help-seeking for mental disorders in hard-to-reach groups are warranted to continue this trend.

Response of Antarctic ice shelf melt to SAM trend and possible feedbacks with the ice-dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donat-Magnin, Marion; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gallée, Hubert; Spence, Paul; Cornford, Stephen L.; Le Sommer, Julien; Durand, Gaël

2017-04-01

The observed positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) may warm the Southern Ocean sub-surface through decreased Ekman downward pumping. Subsequent change in ice-shelves melt has been suggested to trigger glacier acceleration in West Antarctica. Here we use a regional ocean model configuration of the Amundsen Sea that includes interactive ice-shelf cavities. Our results show that the inclusion of ice-shelves changes the ocean response to the projected SAM trend, i.e. it typically inhibits a part of the SAM-induced subsurface warming. Heat budget analysis has been used to propose responsible mechanisms. Regarding Thwaites and Pine Island, sub ice-shelf melt increases above 400m by approximately 40% for Thwaites and 10% for Pine Island and decreases by up to 10% below in response to ocean temperature changes driven by the projected SAM trend. The melt sensitivity to poleward shifting winds is nonetheless small compared to the sensitivity to an ice-sheet instability, i.e. to a projected change in the shape of ice-shelf cavities. For instance, the sub ice-shelf melt are doubled near the grounding line of some glaciers in response to the largest grounding line retreat projected for 2100. Large increase in basal melt close to the grounding line could largely impact instability and glacier acceleration. Our work suggests the need for including ice shelves into ocean models, and to couple ocean models to ice-sheet models in climate projections.

Trends in abuse and misuse of prescription opioids among older adults.

PubMed

West, Nancy A; Severtson, Stevan G; Green, Jody L; Dart, Richard C

2015-04-01

Dramatic increases in the prescriptive use of opioid analgesics during the past two decades have been paralleled by alarming increases in rates of the abuse and intentional misuse of these drugs. We examined recent trends in the abuse and misuse and associated fatal outcomes among older adults (60+ years) and compared these to trends among younger adults (20-59 years). Trend analysis using linear regression models was used to analyze 184,136 cases and 1149 deaths associated with abuse and misuse of the prescription opioids oxycodone, fentanyl, hydrocodone, morphine, oxymorphone, hydromorphone, methadone, buprenorphine, tramadol, and tapentadol that were reported to participating U.S. Poison Centers of the Researched Abuse, Diversion and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS(®)) System between 2006-Q1 and 2013-Q4. Rates of abuse and misuse of prescription opioids were lower for older adults than for younger adults; however, mortality rates among the older ages followed an increasing linear trend (P < 0.0001) and surpassed rates for younger adults in 2012 and 2013. In contrast, mortality rates among younger adults rose and fell during the period, with recent rates trending downward (P = 0.0003 for quadratic trend). Sub-analysis revealed an increasing linear trend among older adults specifically for suicidal intent (P < 0.0001), whereas these rates increased and then decreased among younger adults (P < 0.0001 for quadratic trend). Recent linear increases in rates of death and use of prescription opioids with suicidal intent among older adults have important implications as the U.S. undergoes a rapid expansion of its elderly population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Trend of Medical Tourism Publications: An Attempt to Explore the Involved Academic Disciplines and Interests

PubMed Central

ROKNI, Ladan; PARK, Sam-Hun

2018-01-01

Background: Medical tourism suffers from the lack of a consensus regarding the involved categories. This study aimed to address this gap from the academic disciplines and publications perspective. Methods: Totally 1954 citations were identified through a formula of keyword search of SCOPUS. In order to classify the various subject areas, we followed the international standard classification of education (ISCED) developed by UNESCO. Moreover, the trends of publications were identified based on their popularity between 2000 and 2017. Results: The category with the most interests on publication about medical tourism was ‘health and welfare’, followed by ‘social science’. Even though various disciplines were involved in the medical tourism, it seems that a downward trend has been experienced since 2015. Conclusion: The identified key trends of medical tourism publications will benefit researchers exploring the categories of medical tourism or health travel. The results contribute to advance the state of knowledge from the academic perspective. PMID:29445632

Modeling the Dynamic Change of Air Quality and its Response to Emission Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wei

This thesis focuses on evaluating atmospheric chemistry and transport models' capability in simulating the chemistry and dynamics of power plant plumes, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses in predicting air quality trends at regional scales, and exploring air quality trends in an urban area. First, the Community Mutlti-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is applied to simulate the physical and chemical evolution of power plant plumes (PPPs) during the second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS) in 2006. SO2 and NOy were observed to be rapidly removed from PPPs on cloudy days but not on cloud-free days, indicating efficient aqueous processing of these compounds in clouds, while the model fails to capture the rapid loss of SO2 and NOy in some plumes on the cloudy day. Adjustments to cloud liquid water content (QC) and the default metal concentrations in the cloud module could explain some of the SO 2 loss while NOy in the model was insensitive to QC. Second, CMAQ is applied to simulate the ozone (O3) change after the NO x SIP Call and mobile emission controls in the eastern U.S. from 2002 to 2006. Observed downward changes in 8-hour O3 concentrations in the NOx SIP Call region were under-predicted by 26%--66%. The under-prediction in O3 improvements could be alleviated by 5%--31% by constraining NOx emissions in each year based on observed NOx concentrations while temperature biases or uncertainties in chemical reactions had minor impact on simulated O3 trends. Third, changes in ozone production in the Houston area is assessed with airborne measurements from TexAQS 2000 and 2006. Simultaneous declines in nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2) and highly reactive Volatile Organic Compounds (HRVOCs) were observed in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). The reduction in HRVOCs led to the decline in total radical concentration by 20-50%. Rapid ozone production rates in the Houston area declined by 40-50% from 2000 to 2006, to which the reduction in NOx and HRVOCs had the similar

Multi-physics modelling contributions to investigate the atmospheric cosmic rays on the single event upset sensitivity along the scaling trend of CMOS technologies.

PubMed

Hubert, G; Regis, D; Cheminet, A; Gatti, M; Lacoste, V

2014-10-01

Particles originating from primary cosmic radiation, which hit the Earth's atmosphere give rise to a complex field of secondary particles. These particles include neutrons, protons, muons, pions, etc. Since the 1980s it has been known that terrestrial cosmic rays can penetrate the natural shielding of buildings, equipment and circuit package and induce soft errors in integrated circuits. Recently, research has shown that commercial static random access memories are now so small and sufficiently sensitive that single event upsets (SEUs) may be induced from the electronic stopping of a proton. With continued advancements in process size, this downward trend in sensitivity is expected to continue. Then, muon soft errors have been predicted for nano-electronics. This paper describes the effects in the specific cases such as neutron-, proton- and muon-induced SEU observed in complementary metal-oxide semiconductor. The results will allow investigating the technology node sensitivity along the scaling trend. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial

Peculiar Abundances Observed in the Hot Subdwarf OB Star LB 3241

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chayer, Pierre; Dupuis, J.; Dixon, W. V.; Giguere, E.

2010-01-01

We present a spectral synthesis analysis of the hot subdwarf OB star LB 3241. The analysis is based on spectra obtained by the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE). With an effective temperature of 41,000 K and a gravity of log g = 5.7, the position of LB 3241 in a Teff-log g diagram suggests that it has evolved from the extreme horizontal branch. Such stars evolve into white dwarfs without ascending the asymptotic giant branch after the helium core exhaustion. Arsenic (Z = 33), selenium (34), and tellurium (52) are observed in the atmosphere of LB 3241, and are a first for a hot subdwarf star. LB 3241 shows peculiar chemical abundances that exhibit trends observed in cooler sdB stars. The content of its atmosphere in light elements is about a factor ten lower than that of the Sun, except for nitrogen which has a solar abundance. The Fe abundance is consistent with a solar abundance, but abundances of elements beyond the iron peak (As, Se, Te, Pb) show enrichments over the solar values by factors ranging from 10 to 300. These observations suggest that competing mechanisms must counterbalance the effects of the downward diffusion. The FUSE observations also suggest that LB 3241 is a radial velocity variable.

Sinkhole development in Windsor-Detroit solution mines and the role of downward mass transfer in subsidence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nieto, A.S.; Russell, D.G.

1984-01-01

The main portion of this paper deals with the development of three sinkholes of unexpected size and depth in the WindsorDetroit area. The roles of the Sylvania Sandstone - a unit of unique mechanical properties - and of the high in situ horizontal stresses are evaluated. It is proposed that the Sylvania fails under high horizontal loads, converts into sand, flows downward through cracks towards deeper solution-mine caverns, and creates a shallow void that generates the deep sinkholes. Linear-arch theory is used to evaluate subsidence-induced horizontal stress increments. It is concluded that sinkholes are likely to occur in other areasmore » where the Sylvania is close to the surface (less than 200 m) and active subsidence bowls have surface gradients of a few millimeters per meter. The last section contains a brief discussion of the role of downward mass transfer of slurries in surface subsidence with examples from the Midwest.« less

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates

Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

2009-03-01

Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

Depressive states amplify both upward and downward counterfactual thinking.

PubMed

Feng, Xue; Gu, Ruolei; Liang, Fucheng; Broster, Lucas S; Liu, Yunzhe; Zhang, Dandan; Luo, Yue-jia

2015-08-01

Depression has been linked to counterfactual thinking in many behavioral studies, but the direction of this effect remains disputed. In the current study, the relationship between depression and counterfactual thinking was examined using the event-related potential (ERP) technique. In a binary choice gambling task, outcome feedback of the chosen option and that of the alternative option were both provided, so as to elicit the process of counterfactual comparison. By investigating ERP signals in response to outcome presentation, we discovered that when the fictive outcome was better or worse than the factual outcome, the amplitude of the P3 component was positively correlated with individual levels of depression, but not levels of anxiety. These results indicate that depression strengthens both upward counterfactual thinking and downward counterfactual thinking. The implication of this finding to clinical research is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

[Trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors in Colombia, 1998-2010].

PubMed

Salazar, Edwin; Buitrago, Carolina; Molina, Federico; Alzate, Catalina Arango

2015-05-01

Determine the trend in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women and its relationship to socioeconomic factors. Descriptive study, based on the official registries of deaths reported by the National Statistics Agency, 1998-2010. The trend was analyzed using Poisson regressions. Bivariate correlations and multiple linear regression models were constructed to explore the relationship between mortality and socioeconomic factors: human development index, Gini index, gross domestic product, unsatisfied basic needs, unemployment rate, poverty, extreme poverty, quality of life index, illiteracy rate, and percentage of affiliation to the Social Security System. A total of 2 223 female deaths from external causes were recorded, of which 1 429 occurred during pregnancy and 794 in the postpartum period. The gross mortality rate dropped from 30.7 per 100 000 live births plus fetal deaths in 1998 to 16.7 in 2010. A downward curve with no significant inflection points was shown in the risk of dying from this cause. The multiple linear regression model showed a correlation between mortality and extreme poverty and the illiteracy rate, suggesting that these indicators could explain 89.4% of the change in mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women each year in Colombia. Mortality from external causes in pregnant and postpartum women showed a significant downward trend that may be explained by important socioeconomic changes in the country, including a decrease in extreme poverty and in the illiteracy rate.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure

PubMed Central

Bloome, Deirdre

2015-01-01

Racial disparity in family incomes remained remarkably stable over the past 40 years in the United States despite major legal and social reforms. Previous scholarship presents two primary explanations for persistent inequality through a period of progressive change. One highlights continuity: because socioeconomic status is transmitted from parents to children, disparities created through histories of discrimination and opportunity denial may dissipate slowly. The second highlights change: because family income results from joining individual earnings in family units, changing family compositions can offset individuals’ changing economic chances. I examine whether black-white family income inequality trends are better characterized by the persistence of existing disadvantage (continuity) or shifting forms of disadvantage (change). I combine cross-sectional and panel analysis using Current Population Survey, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census, and National Vital Statistics data. Results suggest that African Americans experience relatively extreme intergenerational continuity (low upward mobility) and discontinuity (high downward mobility); both helped maintain racial inequality. Yet, intergenerational discontinuities allow new forms of disadvantage to emerge. On net, racial inequality trends are better characterized by changing forms of disadvantage than by continuity. Economic trends were equalizing but demographic trends were disequalizing; as family structures shifted, family incomes did not fully reflect labor-market gains. PMID:26456973

An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

2017-07-01

A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

Downward continuation of the free-air gravity anomalies to the ellipsoid using the gradient solution and terrain correction: An attempt of global numerical computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Y. M.

1989-01-01

The formulas for the determination of the coefficients of the spherical harmonic expansion of the disturbing potential of the earth are defined for data given on a sphere. In order to determine the spherical harmonic coefficients, the gravity anomalies have to be analytically downward continued from the earth's surface to a sphere-at least to the ellipsoid. The goal is to continue the gravity anomalies from the earth's surface downward to the ellipsoid using recent elevation models. The basic method for the downward continuation is the gradient solution (the g sub 1 term). The terrain correction was also computed because of the role it can play as a correction term when calculating harmonic coefficients from surface gravity data. The fast Fourier transformation was applied to the computations.

Kinetic analysis of downward step posture according to the foothold heights and visual information blockage in cargo truck

PubMed Central

Hyun, Seung-Hyun; Ryew, Che-Cheong

2018-01-01

The study was undertaken to compare and analyze kinetic variables during downward foot-on according to the foothold heights under interrupted-visual information on 25-t cargo truck. Skilled adult male drivers (n=10) engaged in cargo truck driving over 1 year participated in the experiment. The results obtained from cinematographic and ground reaction force data during downward foot-on as follows; First, leg stiffness, peak vertical force (PVF) and loading rate showed significant difference as an increase of foothold heights, that is, interrupted-visual information showed greater impulse force than as was not. Second, variables of center of pressure (COP) with interrupted-visual information did not showed difference, but anterior-posterior COP and COP area showed an increasing tendency as an increase of foothold heights. Third, dynamic posture stability index (overall, medial-lateral, anterior-posterior, and vertical) showed significant difference as an increase of foothold height, that is, interrupted-visual information showed lower index than as was not. Therefore it will be possible to control successfully the leg stiffness, loading rate, and PVF when preparing an estimate for air phase time and impulse force through habitual cognition and confirmation at landing during downward foot-on from cargo truck. Identifying these potential differences may enable clinicians to assess type of injury and design exercise rehabilitation protocols specific. PMID:29740569

Trends in laboratory test volumes for Medicare Part B reimbursements, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Shahangian, Shahram; Alspach, Todd D; Astles, J Rex; Yesupriya, Ajay; Dettwyler, William K

2014-02-01

tests exhibited statistically significant downward trends in annual reimbursement volumes. The observed changes in reimbursement volumes may be explained by disease prevalence and severity, patterns of drug use, clinical or laboratory practices, and testing recommendations and guidelines, among others. These data may be useful to policy makers, health systems researchers, laboratory directors, and industry scientists to understand, address, and anticipate trends in laboratory testing in the Medicare population.

Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jin-Jie; Wang, Yuan; Wu, Liguang

2010-06-01

The hot debate over the influence of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific over the past several decades is partly due to the diversity of TC data sets used in recent publications. This study investigates differences of track, intensity, frequency, and the associated long-term trends for those TCs that were simultaneously recorded by the best track data sets of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo, and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). Though the differences in TC tracks among these data sets are negligibly small, the JTWC data set tends to classify TCs of category 2-3 as category 4-5, leading to an upward trend in the annual frequency of category 4-5 TCs and the annual accumulated power dissipation index, as reported by Webster et al. (2005) and Emanuel (2005). This trend and potential destructiveness over the period 1977-2007 are found only with the JTWC data set, but downward trends are apparent in the RSMC and STI data sets. It is concluded that the different algorithms used in determining TC intensity may cause the trend discrepancies of TC activity in the western North Pacific.

Elderly suicide trends in the context of transforming China, 1987–2014

PubMed Central

Zhong, Bao-Liang; Chiu, Helen F. K.; Conwell, Yeates

2016-01-01

In the context of rapid ageing, understanding the time-trend of elderly suicide (ES) could inform China’s efforts on suicide prevention. We examined time-trends in Chinese ES rates (ESRs) from 1987 to 2014, a period of profound social changes. Suicide rates by residence (rural/urban), gender, and 5-year age-group (65+) in 1987–2014 were provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health. Time-trends were analyzed with joinpoint analysis. The time-trend of national ESRs was downward (average annual percent change [AAPC] = −3.7, P < 0.001): 76.6/100000 in 1987 and 30.2/100000 in 2014. However, the time-trend of corresponding percentages of ESs among the total suicides was monotonically increasing (AAPC = 3.4, P < 0.001): 16.9% in 1987 to 41.2% in 2014. The time-trends in ESRs of both rural and urban men and women were decreasing, but only the rural trends were significant (P < 0.001). Rural-urban and male-female differences in ESRs were decreasing over time (slope = −4.2 and −3.0, P ≤ 0.006), but the rural-urban and male-female ESR differences in 2014 remained large (16.3/100000 and 9.8/100000, P < 0.001). While national ESRs decreased significantly during the past three decades, the current ESR remains high in China. Further, the age-pattern of Chinese suicide is transitioning to elderly predominance. ES, particularly rural ES, should be a public health priority in China. PMID:27886219

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

PubMed

Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

2011-03-01

To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

PubMed Central

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967–2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002–2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277 PMID:25810765

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space.

PubMed

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-05-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.

Physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors in a 40- to 42-year-old rural Norwegian population from 1975–2010: repeated cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Geographical differences in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have been observed among Norwegian counties. Better long-term health status and higher physical activity (PA) levels have been documented in the county of Sogn & Fjordane compared with other counties. However, recent trends in CVD risk factors have not been documented. The aim of this study was to investigate the secular trends in leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and other CVD risk factors over a 35-year period in a rural population of 40- to 42-year-olds in western Norway and to compare these trends with national trends. Methods Data from eight cross-sectional studies from 1975–2010 (n = 375,682) were obtained from questionnaires and physical examinations and were analyzed using mixed model regression analyses. Results Decreasing trends were observed for sedentary behavior (for women), moderate PA, smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high-density lipoprotein (HDL-c) and total cholesterol (TC), whereas increasing trends were observed for body mass index (BMI), triglycerides (TG), light PA, vigorous PA and sedentary behavior for men. Compared to the national trends, the trends in the 40-42-year-olds from Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial in terms of TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial in terms of SBP and DBP. Conclusions Over a 35-year-period, this study indicates that the LTPA level has been relatively stable in the county of Sogn & Fjordane. Upward trends were observed in light and vigorous PA, whereas a downward trend was observed in moderate PA. For sedentary behavior, an upward trend was observed in men, whereas a downward trend was observed in women. For smoking, BP and cholesterol decreasing trends were found, but increasing trends were observed in BMI and TG. Compared with the national data, the trends in Sogn & Fjordane were more beneficial for TG, HDL-c and BMI but less beneficial for BP. PMID:24906521

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

Temporal Trends of Suicide Mortality in Mainland China: Results from the Age-Period-Cohort Framework.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenkun; Wang, Jinyao; Bao, Junzhe; Gao, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua; Xiang, Huiyun

2016-08-03

The aim of this study is to explore the long-term trends of suicide mortality in China. We implemented the age-period-cohort (APC) framework, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Our results showed that the net drift of suicide mortality was -4.727% (95% CI: -4.821% to -4.634%) per year for men and -6.633% (95% CI: -6.751% to -6.515%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes during the period of 1994-2013. Longitudinal age curves indicated that, in the same birth cohort, suicide death risk increased rapidly to peak at the life stage of 20-24 years old and 15-24 years old for men and women, respectively, and then showed a decelerated decline, followed by a rise thereafter after 54 years old for men and a slight one after 69 years old for women. The estimated period and cohort RRs were found to show similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period. The decreasing trend of suicide was likely to be related to the economic rapid growth, improvements in health care, enhancement on the level of education, and increasing awareness of suicide among the public in China. In addition, fast urbanization and the effective control of pesticides and rodenticides might be the special reasons behind these trends we observed in this study.

Trends in otitis media-related health care use in the United States, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Marom, Tal; Tan, Alai; Wilkinson, Gregg S; Pierson, Karen S; Freeman, Jean L; Chonmaitree, Tasnee

2014-01-01

Otitis media (OM) is a leading cause of pediatric health care visits and the most frequent reason children consume antibiotics or undergo surgery. During recent years, several interventions have been introduced aiming to decrease OM burden. To study the trend in OM-related health care use in the United States during the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) era (2001-2011). An analysis of an insurance claims database of a large, nationwide managed health care plan was conducted. Enrolled children aged 6 years or younger with OM visits were identified. Annual OM visit rates, OM-related complications, and surgical interventions were analyzed. Overall, 7.82 million unique children (5.51 million child-years) contributed 6.21 million primary OM visits; 52% were boys and 48% were younger than 2 years. There was a downward trend in OM visit rates from 2004 to 2011, with a significant drop that coincided with the advent of the 13-valent vaccine (PCV-13) in 2010. The observed OM visit rates in 2010 (1.00/child-year) and 2011 (0.81/child-year) were lower than the projected rates based on the 2005-2009 trend had there been no intervention (P < .001). Recurrent OM (≥3 OM visits within 6-month look-back) rates decreased at 0.003/child-year (95% CI, 0.002-0.004/child-year) in 2001-2009 and at 0.018/child-year (95% CI, 0.008-0.028/child-year) in 2010-2011. In the PCV-13 premarket years, there was a stable rate ratio (RR) between OM visit rates in children younger than 2 years and in those aged 2 to 6 years (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.38-1.39); the RR decreased significantly (P < .001) during the transition year 2010 (RR 1.32; 95% CI, 1.31-1.33) and the postmarket year 2011 (RR 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02). Tympanic membrane perforation/otorrhea rates gradually increased (from 3721 per 100,000 OM child-years in 2001 to 4542 per 100,000 OM child-years in 2011; P < .001); the increase was significant only in the older children group. Mastoiditis rates substantially decreased (from

Babcock-Leighton Solar Dynamo: The Role of Downward Pumping and the Equatorward Propagation of Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Cameron, Robert

2016-11-01

The key elements of the Babcock-Leighton dynamos are the generation of poloidal field through decay and the dispersal of tilted bipolar active regions and the generation of toroidal field through the observed differential rotation. These models are traditionally known as flux transport dynamo models as the equatorward propagations of the butterfly wings in these models are produced due to an equatorward flow at the bottom of the convection zone. Here we investigate the role of downward magnetic pumping near the surface using a kinematic Babcock-Leighton model. We find that the pumping causes the poloidal field to become predominately radial in the near-surface shear layer, which allows the negative radial shear to effectively act on the radial field to produce a toroidal field. We observe a clear equatorward migration of the toroidal field at low latitudes as a consequence of the dynamo wave even when there is no meridional flow in the deep convection zone. Both the dynamo wave and the flux transport type solutions are thus able to reproduce some of the observed features of the solar cycle including the 11-year periodicity. The main difference between the two types of solutions is the strength of the Babcock-Leighton source required to produce the dynamo action. A second consequence of the magnetic pumping is that it suppresses the diffusion of fields through the surface, which helps to allow an 11-year cycle at (moderately) larger values of magnetic diffusivity than have previously been used.

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis.

Temporal trends in orchidopexy, Great Britain, 1992-1998.

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L; Jarup, Lars; Quinn, Mike; Jick, Susan; Elliott, Paul

2003-01-01

Concern has been expressed in recent years about worsening male reproductive health, possibly mediated by increasing exposures to environmental endocrine-disrupting agents. Trends suggested large increases in cryptorchidism in Britain and the United States between the 1950s and 1980s, although published data on recent trends have been scarce. We examined numbers of orchidopexy procedures, as a marker for cryptorchidism, using routine hospital admission data for England, Wales, and Scotland for fiscal years 1992-1993 through 1998-1999. Annual trends in orchidopexy rates were analyzed by age, in-patient admission versus day case, and geographical region. Orchidopexy rates were also obtained from the General Practice Research Database (GPRD) for England to cross-validate the hospital admissions data. Orchidopexy rates for boys 0-14 years old fell by 33% (from 23.5 to 15.8 per 10,000 population) between 1992 and 1998, with the steepest decline (50%) in 5-9-year-olds. The decreasing trend for 0-14-year-olds was evident in every region in England, in Wales, and in Scotland. Rates remained stable for men 15 or more years old, at 0.7 per 10,000. There was a marked shift from in-patient to day-case procedures. Rates from the GPRD showed a similar downward trend to the hospital data. Our findings could represent either an underlying decrease in the frequency of undescended testis or a fairly dramatic improvement in the diagnosis of cryptorchidism--resulting in fewer orchidopexies performed for retractile testis--in Great Britain during the 1990s, or both. Either way, our findings do not support the postulate of a recent worsening of male reproductive health of the scale suggested by some recent commentators on the endocrine disruptor hypothesis. PMID:12515691

Lung cancer mortality trends in 36 European countries: secular trends and birth cohort patterns by sex and region 1970-2007.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie Ian; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2010-03-15

Smoking is a major contributor to all-cause mortality in Europe and accounts for one-fifth of the cancer-related deaths. Monitoring the tobacco epidemic via an analysis of lung cancer trends is essential in helping countries arrest the effects of tobacco epidemic in the region. The study aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the temporal patterns of lung cancer mortality in Europe, emphasizing country- and sex-specific differences. National lung cancer mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality databank by age, sex, year of death (1970-2007) for 36 countries in Europe. Trends in lung cancer mortality in men have tended to decrease in many European countries during the last two decades, particularly in North and Western Europe. Among women, mortality rates are still increasing in many countries, although in a few populations, rates are beginning to stabilize, notably in the high-risk countries within Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic), and in Northern Europe (Denmark, Iceland and the United Kingdom). Men and women are clearly in very different phases of the smoking epidemic, and, as reflected in the mortality rates by birth cohort, the stage varies widely by country within each European region. That lung cancer mortality trends in men are on a downwards path in most European countries while female rates continue to rise, points to an urgent need for national and European prevention strategies that target tobacco cessation and prevention among European women.

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing.

PubMed

Kunz, A; Müller, R; Homonnai, V; Jánosi, I M; Hurst, D; Rap, A; Forster, P M; Rohrer, F; Spelten, N; Riese, M

2013-10-16

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N, 105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TP z > 14 km), extratropical (TP z < 12 km), and transitional air mass types (12 km < TP z < 14 km) reveal three different water vapor reservoirs. The analysis based on these concepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

observed in developed countries (US, EU and Japan) where a decreasing trend for both SO2 and NO2 has been observed since 1990s, the observed upward and downward trend found in Henan is similar to those found in North China Plain and other parts of China. The spatial and temporal trend analyses of SO2 and NO2 in four other regions in Henan further indicate a similar trend to those observed in Henan Province, albeit with different increasing and decreasing rate. The results provide regulatory agency to develop action plans to combat air pollution problem in general and SO2 and NO2 problems in particular in Henan. The implications of our findings and recommendations for decision makers are discussed in the paper.

Some observations on the role of planetary waves in determining the spring time ozone distribution in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Mcpeters, R. D.

1986-01-01

Ozone measurements from 1970 to 1984 from the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet and the Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet spectrometers show significant decrease in total ozone only after 1979. The downward trend is most apparent in October south of 70 deg S in the longitude zone 0 to 30 deg W where planetary wave activity is weak. Outside this longitude region, the trend in total ozone is much smaller due to strong interannual variability of wave activity. This paper gives a phenomenological description of ozone depletion in the Antarctic region based on vertical advection and transient planetary waves.

Occurrence of and trends in selected sediment-associated contaminants in Caddo Lake, East Texas, 1940-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Jennifer T.

2003-01-01

Bottom-sediment cores were collected from four sites in Caddo Lake in East Texas during May 2002 for analyses of radionuclides (for age dating), organochlorine pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and major and trace elements, and to describe the occurrence and trends of these sediment-associated contaminants. The Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites receive drainage from an area that includes parts of the now-closed Longhorn Army Ammunitions Plant. The mid-lake site is relatively close to dense oil and gas operations in the lake. The Carter Lake site receives minimal discharge from developed areas. Sediment age (deposition) dates represented in the cores ranged from 1940 to 2002. The only organochlorine compounds detected in all core samples were the DDT degradation products DDE or DDD, and PCB Aroclors 1242, 1254, and 1260 were detected only at the Goose Prairie Creek site. One or more of the DDE concentrations at all sites exceeded a consensus-based threshold effect concentration (on benthic biota), but none exceeded a consensus-based probable effect concentration. The Goose Prairie Creek site had significant downward trends in concentrations of organochlorine compounds, except for no trend in DDE concentrations. The Ammunitions Plant is a possible historical source of the few organochlorine compounds detected at the Goose Prairie Creek and Harrison Bayou sites. PAH concentrations at all sites were below respective threshold effect concentrations. Highest PAH concentrations at all four sites were of C2- alkylated naphthalenes. Nearly all statistically significant PAH trends in the cores were downward. On the basis of PAH source-indicator ratios, the majority of PAH compounds appear to have originated from uncombusted sources such as leaks or spills from oil and gas operations or vehicles (automobiles, boats, aircraft) in the Caddo Lake area. Concentrations of several of the eight trace elements with

Comparison of several databases of downward solar daily irradiation data at ocean surface with PIRATA measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trolliet, Mélodie; Wald, Lucien

2017-04-01

The solar radiation impinging at sea surface is an essential variable in climate system. There are several means to assess the daily irradiation at surface, such as pyranometers aboard ship or on buoys, meteorological re-analyses and satellite-derived databases. Among the latter, assessments made from the series of geostationary Meteosat satellites offer synoptic views of the tropical and equatorial Atlantic Ocean every 15 min with a spatial resolution of approximately 5 km. Such Meteosat-derived databases are fairly recent and the quality of the estimates of the daily irradiation must be established. Efforts have been made for the land masses and must be repeated for the Atlantic Ocean. The Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) network of moorings in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean is considered as a reference for oceanographic data. It consists in 17 long-term Autonomous Temperature Line Acquisition System (ATLAS) buoys equipped with sensors to measure near-surface meteorological and subsurface oceanic parameters, including downward solar irradiation. Corrected downward solar daily irradiation from PIRATA were downloaded from the NOAA web site and were compared to several databases: CAMS RAD, HelioClim-1, HelioClim-3 v4 and HelioClim-3 v5. CAMS-RAD, the CAMS radiation service, combines products of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) on gaseous content and aerosols in the atmosphere together with cloud optical properties deduced every 15 min from Meteosat imagery to supply estimates of the solar irradiation. Part of this service is the McClear clear sky model that provides estimates of the solar irradiation that should be observed in cloud-free conditions. The second and third databases are HelioClim-1 and HelioClim-3 v4 that are derived from Meteosat images using the Heliosat-2 method and the ESRA clear sky model, based on the Linke turbidity factor. HelioClim-3 v5 is the fourth database and differs from v4 by the

Corona discharges and their effect on lightning attachment revisited: Upward leader initiation and downward leader interception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerra, Marley

2014-11-01

Previous studies have suggested the possibility of using glow corona discharges to control the frequency of lightning flashes to grounded objects. In order to revisit the theoretical basis of this proposal, the self-consistent leader inception and propagation model - SLIM - is used together with a two-dimensional glow corona drift model. The analysis is performed to quantify the effect of glow corona generated at the tip of ground-based objects on the initiation and propagation of upward positive connecting leaders under the influence of downward lightning leaders. It is found that the presence of glow corona does not influence the performance of Franklin lightning rods shorter than 15 m, while it slightly reduces the lateral distance of rods up to 60 m tall by a maximum of 10%. Furthermore, the results indicate that it is not possible to suppress the initiation of upward connecting leaders by means of glow corona. It is found instead that unconventional lightning protection systems based on the generation of glow corona attract downward lightning flashes in a similar way as a standard lightning rod with the same height.

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Leprosy trends in Zambia 1991-2009.

PubMed

Kapata, Nathan; Chanda-Kapata, Pascalina; Grobusch, Martin Peter; O'Grady, Justin; Bates, Matthew; Mwaba, Peter; Zumla, Alimuddin

2012-10-01

To document leprosy trends in Zambia over the past two decades to ascertain the importance of leprosy as a health problem in Zambia. Retrospective study covering the period 1991-2009 of routine national leprosy surveillance data, published national programme review reports and desk reviews of in-country TB reports. Data reports were available for all the years under study apart from years 2001, 2002 and 2006. The Leprosy case notification rates (CNR) declined from 2.73/10 000 population in 1991 to 0.43/10 000 population in 2009. The general leprosy burden showed a downward trend for both adults and children. Leprosy case burden dropped from approximately 18 000 cases in 1980 to only about 1000 cases in 1996, and by the year 2000, the prevalence rates had fallen to 0.67/10 000 population. There were more multibacillary cases of leprosy than pauci-bacillary cases. Several major gaps in data recording, entry and surveillance were identified. Data on disaggregation by gender, HIV status or geographical origin were not available. Whilst Zambia has achieved WHO targets for leprosy control, leprosy prevalence data from Zambia may not reflect real situation because of poor data recording and surveillance. Greater investment into infrastructure and training are required for more accurate surveillance of leprosy in Zambia. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ionosonde observations of daytime spread F at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chunhua; Yang, Guobin; Liu, Jing; Yokoyama, Tatsuhiro; Komolmis, Tharadol; Song, Huan; Lan, Ting; Zhou, Chen; Zhang, Yuannong; Zhao, Zhengyu

2016-12-01

Spread F on ionograms has been considered to be a phenomenon mainly occurred at nighttime. This study presented a case study of daytime spread F observed by the ionosonde installed at Puer (PUR; 22.7°N, 101.05°E; dip latitude 12.9°N), where daytime spread F that lasted for more than 2 h (about 08:30 LT 10:45 LT) was observed on 14 November 2015. To investigate the possible mechanism, ionograms recorded at PUR and Chiang Mai (18.76°N, 98.93°E; dip latitude 9.04°N) were used in this study. We found that traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed before the occurrence of daytime spread F. Meanwhile, the movement of the peak height of the ionosphere was downward. We suggested that downward vertical neutral winds excited by traveling atmospheric disturbances/atmospheric gravity waves might play a significant role in forming daytime spread F over PUR during geomagnetic storms.

Examination of Regional Trends in Cloud Properties over Surface Sites Derived from MODIS and AVHRR using the CERES Cloud Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. L., Jr.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Sun-Mack, S.; Chen, Y.; Doelling, D. R.; Kato, S.; Rutan, D. A.

2017-12-01

Recent studies analyzing long-term measurements of surface insolation at ground sites suggest that decadal-scale trends of increasing (brightening) and decreasing (dimming) downward solar flux have occurred at various times over the last century. Regional variations have been reported that range from near 0 Wm-2/decade to as large as 9 Wm-2/decade depending on the location and time period analyzed. The more significant trends have been attributed to changes in overhead clouds and aerosols, although quantifying their relative impacts using independent observations has been difficult, owing in part to a lack of consistent long-term measurements of cloud properties. This paper examines new satellite based records of cloud properties derived from MODIS (2000-present) and AVHRR (1981- present) data to infer cloud property trends over a number of surface radiation sites across the globe. The MODIS cloud algorithm was developed for the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to provide a consistent record of cloud properties to help improve broadband radiation measurements and to better understand cloud radiative effects. The CERES-MODIS cloud algorithm has been modified to analyze other satellites including the AVHRR on the NOAA satellites. Compared to MODIS, obtaining consistent cloud properties over a long period from AVHRR is a much more significant challenge owing to the number of different satellites, instrument calibration uncertainties, orbital drift and other factors. Nevertheless, both the MODIS and AVHRR cloud properties will be analyzed to determine trends, and their level of consistency and correspondence with surface radiation trends derived from the ground-based radiometer data. It is anticipated that this initial study will contribute to an improved understanding of surface solar radiation trends and their relationship to clouds.

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

Temporal trends and regional variations in gastrointestinal cancer mortality in Peru, 2005-2014.

PubMed

Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Bendezú-Quispe, Guido; Azañedo, Diego; Huarez, Bertha; Rodríguez-Lema, Belén

2016-01-01

To estimate and analyze the evolution of mortality rates of gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in Peru and its regions between 2005-2014. We performed a nationwide secondary analysis of Peru's Health Ministry registry of deaths during the period 2005-2014, with a focus on regional differences. Deaths registered with codes C15 to C25 (malignant neoplasms of digestive organs) from the ICD-10 were included. Calculation of age-standarized mortality rates and years of life lost (YLL) due to GI cancer per 100,000 habitants were also performed. Data of 67,527 deaths from GI cancers was analyzed, 35,055 (51.91%) were women. In 2005, the number of GI cancer deaths was 6,484, for 2014, 7,532 cases were recorded. The GI cancer age-standarized mortality rates at the country level showed a decrease of 12.70% between 2005-2014. Stomach cancer presented the highest age-standarized mortality rate despite showing a downward trend in the last years, equal for gallbladder, liver and biliary tract, and esophagus cancer. Colorectal, small intestine and anus cancer show a progressive increase. In 2014, Callao (48.8), Huancavelica (48.5), La Libertad (39.6), Lambayeque (40.5) and Huanuco (38.9) had the highest rates. The three types of GI cancers with the highest rates of YLL in 2014 were stomach cancer (118.51), followed by liver and biliary tract cancer (58.68) and colorectal (44.86). GI cancer mortality in Peru is high and a priority issue in regions like Huancavelica, Huanuco, Callao, La Libertad and Lambayeque. Stomach cancer remains the most frequent GI cancer, but with a downward trend in the study period.

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

2011-01-01

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Observations of Europe wide Trends in background and peak O3, CO and NO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; Monks, P. S.; Brunsdon, C.; Henne, S.; Buchmann, B.; Konovalov, I.; Beekman, M.

2009-04-01

The GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and MONitoring) project has produced a harmonised data set of trace gases from various ground-based measurement stations. These stations belong to a variety of regional, national and European air quality networks (e.g. EMEP, GAW). Investigations into instrumental calibration and data quality have been carried out in order to make comparison between the sites as accurate as possible for a long time-scale trend analysis. Ozone seasonal cycles at the various sites have been compared, showing characteristic cycles according to latitude, elevation, vicinity to coastal areas and pollution sources and population nearby. A de-trending of this seasonal cycle revealed long-term variations in ozone and a considerable difference between background and peak ozone trends between sites. National, European and international legislation has aimed at reducing CO and NO2 and correspondingly, reduce O3 levels over the last 20 years but the trends are not as clear cut and reveal that there is not a homogeneous reduction in these species across Europe. Splitting the data into seasonal periods and also into lower and upper concentration percentiles shows us more clearly how the species vary across Europe. There is a tendency for peak ozone levels to decrease, whilst the background levels have mostly increased. Averages, lower and upper percentiles of these species at the GEOMON stations are shown on European maps and the distribution of annual ozone trends is evaluated. Comparisons with models that estimate the lower and upper percentiles of ozone during summer overestimate ozone levels but not uniformly across Europe.

Assessing the Controversy between Altimetry, Radiometry, and Scatterometry: Satellite Observation Requirements for Trends in Extreme Winds and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, J.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

A recent study (Young et al. 2011) investigated recent global trends in mean and extreme (90th- and 99th-percentile) wind speed and wave height. Wentz and Ricciardulli (2011) have criticized the study, citing the methodology solely employing data collected from a series of altimetry missions and lack of adequate verification of the results. An earlier study (Wentz et al. 2007) had differing results using data from microwave radiometers and scatterometers. This study serves as a response to these studies, employing a similar methodology but with a different set of data. Data collected from the QuikSCAT and ADEOS-2 SeaWinds scatterometers, SSMI(S), and TOPEX/POSEIDON and JASON-1 altimetry missions are used to calculate trends in the mean, 90th-, and 99th-percentile wind speed and wave height over the period 1999—2009. Linear regression analyses from the satellite missions are verified against regression analyses of data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Temporal sampling presents the most critical consideration in the study. The scatterometers have a much greater independent temporal sampling (about 1.5 observations per day per satellite) than the altimeters (about 1 observation per 10 days). With this consideration, the satellite data are also used to sample the wind speeds in the ERA-Interim dataset. That portion of the study indicates the sampling requirements needed to accurately estimate the trends in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Wentz, F.J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235. Wentz, F.J. and L. Ricciardulli, 2011: Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height." Science, 334, 905. Young, I.R., S. Zieger, and A.V. Babanin, 2011a: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 332, 451-455.

Measurements of the eigenfunction of reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes that sweep downward in frequency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heidbrink, W. W.; Austin, M. E.; Spong, D. A.

2013-08-15

Reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes (RSAEs) usually sweep upward in frequency when the minimum value of the safety factor q{sub min} decreases in time. On rare occasions, RSAEs sweep downward prior to the upward sweep. Electron cyclotron emission measurements show that the radial eigenfunction during the downsweeping phase is similar to the eigenfunction of normal, upsweeping RSAEs.

A quantitative model and the experimental evaluation of the liquid fuel layer for the downward flame spread of XPS foam.

PubMed

Luo, Shengfeng; Xie, Qiyuan; Tang, Xinyi; Qiu, Rong; Yang, Yun

2017-05-05

The objective of this work is to investigate the distinctive mechanisms of downward flame spread for XPS foam. It was physically considered as a moving down of narrow pool fire instead of downward surface flame spread for normal solids. A method was developed to quantitatively analyze the accumulated liquid fuel based on the experimental measurement of locations of flame tips and burning rates. The results surprisingly showed that about 80% of the generated hot liquid fuel remained in the pool fire during a certain period. Most of the consumed solid XPS foam didn't really burn away but transformed as the liquid fuel in the downward moving pool fire, which might be an important promotion for the fast fire development. The results also indicated that the dripping propensity of the hot liquid fuel depends on the total amount of the hot liquid accumulated in the pool fire. The leading point of the flame front curve might be the breach of the accumulated hot liquid fuel if it is enough for dripping. Finally, it is suggested that horizontal noncombustible barriers for preventing the accumulation and dripping of liquid fuel are helpful for vertical confining of XPS fire. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

2012-12-01

It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

[Trend in inequalities in mortality due to external causes among the municipalities of Antioquia (Colombia)].

PubMed

Caicedo-Velásquez, Beatriz; Álvarez-Castaño, Luz Stella; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Borrell, Carme

2016-01-01

To analyse the trend in inequalities in mortality due to external causes among municipalities in Antioquia, department of Colombia, from 2000 to 2010, and its association with socioeconomic conditions. External causes included violent deaths, such as homicides, suicides and traffic accidents, among others. Ecological design of mortality trends, with the 125 municipalities of Antioquia as the unit of analysis. The age-adjusted smoothed standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was estimated for each of the municipalities by using an empirical Bayesian model. Differences in the SMR between the poorest and least poor municipalities were estimated by using a two-level hierarchical model (level-1: year, level-2: municipality). Mortality due to external causes showed a downward trend in the department in the period under review, although the situation was not similar in all municipalities. The findings showed that the risk of death from external causes significantly increased in poor and underdeveloped municipalities. Intervention is required through policies that take into account local differences in mortality due to external causes. Copyright © 2016 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

PubMed

Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (p<0.05), but not gastric cancer (p=0.423). (i) The number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO: THE ROLE OF DOWNWARD PUMPING AND THE EQUATORWARD PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Cameron, Robert, E-mail: bkarak@ucar.edu

The key elements of the Babcock–Leighton dynamos are the generation of poloidal field through decay and the dispersal of tilted bipolar active regions and the generation of toroidal field through the observed differential rotation. These models are traditionally known as flux transport dynamo models as the equatorward propagations of the butterfly wings in these models are produced due to an equatorward flow at the bottom of the convection zone. Here we investigate the role of downward magnetic pumping near the surface using a kinematic Babcock–Leighton model. We find that the pumping causes the poloidal field to become predominately radial inmore » the near-surface shear layer, which allows the negative radial shear to effectively act on the radial field to produce a toroidal field. We observe a clear equatorward migration of the toroidal field at low latitudes as a consequence of the dynamo wave even when there is no meridional flow in the deep convection zone. Both the dynamo wave and the flux transport type solutions are thus able to reproduce some of the observed features of the solar cycle including the 11-year periodicity. The main difference between the two types of solutions is the strength of the Babcock–Leighton source required to produce the dynamo action. A second consequence of the magnetic pumping is that it suppresses the diffusion of fields through the surface, which helps to allow an 11-year cycle at (moderately) larger values of magnetic diffusivity than have previously been used.« less

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Modern (1992–2011) and projected (2012–99) peak snowpack and May–July runoff for the Fort Peck Lake and Lake Sakakawea watersheds in the Upper Missouri River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamm, John F.; Todey, Dennis; Mayes Bousted, Barbara; Rossi, Shawn; Norton, Parker A.; Carter, Janet M.

2016-02-09

Annual peak snowpack was projected to have a downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake watershed and an upward trend for the lower Lake Sakakawea watershed. Projections of May–July runoff had a significant downward trend for the Fort Peck Lake, lower Lake Sakakawea, and Lake Sakakawea (combination of Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea) watersheds. Downward trends in projected May–July runoff indicated that power production at Fort Peck Dam might be affected particularly in the later part of the simulation (2061–99); however, confidence in projected May–July runoff for the later part of the simulation was less certain because bias-corrected air temperatures from CCSM3 and CCSM4 commonly fell outside of the observed range used for calibration. Projected May–July runoff combined for the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds were on the order of magnitude of the 2011 flood for 1 simulation year for each of the CCSM-based simulations. High peak snowpack and precipitation in April, May, and June in the plains was associated with large May–July runoff events; therefore, high precipitation at lower elevations in the Fort Peck Lake and lower Lake Sakakawea watersheds was a factor in the simulation of extreme runoff events at the magnitude of the 2011 flood.

Downwards Vertical Attention Bias in Conversion Disorder vs Controls: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Gazit, Sivan; Elkana, Odelia; Dawidowicz, Liraz; Yeshayahu, Liel; Biran, Iftah

Conversion disorder (CD) is a largely enigmatic disorder, one that requires a thorough ruling-out process. Prior research suggests that metaphors and conceptualization are rooted in physical experience, and that we interpret our affective world through metaphors. Spatial metaphors (interaction of affect and vertical space) are a prominent example of the grounding of metaphors. This is a relatively unpaved direction of research of CD. The present pilot study sought to explore this view by investigating the "healthy is up, sick is down" spatial metaphors (e.g., "fell ill" and "top shape") in patients with CD, examining the correlation between the processing of bodily-related words, CD, and vertical space. We hypothesized that patients with CD, who experience their bodies as ill, will demonstrate a downwards bias when processing bodily-related words; corresponding to the "healthy is up, sick is down" spatial metaphor. A total of 8 female patients (ages M-38.13 SD-10.44) and 42 female controls (ages M-36.4 SD-14.57) performed a visual attention task. Participants were asked to identify a spatial probe at the top or the bottom of a screen, following either a bodily related (e.g., arm) or non-bodily related (e.g., clock) prime word. As predicted, when processing bodily-related words, patients with CD demonstrated a downwards attention bias. Moreover, the higher the patient's level of somatization, the faster the patient detected lower (vs upper) spatial targets. This study suggests that the changed health paradigm of patients with CD is grounded in sensorimotor perception. Further research could propose new diagnostic and treatment options for CD. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numerical simulations of downward convective overshooting in giants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Chun-Lin; Deng, Li-Cai; Chan, Kwing-Lam

2009-09-01

An attempt at understanding downward overshooting in the convective envelopes of post-main-sequence stars has been made on the basis of three-dimensional large-eddy simulations, using artificially modified OPAL opacity and taking into account radiation and ionization in the equation of state. Two types of star, an intermediate-mass star and a massive star, were considered. To avoid a long thermal relaxation time of the intermediate-mass star, we increased the stellar energy flux artificially while trying to maintain a structure close to the one given by a 1D stellar model. A parametric study of the flux factor was performed. For the massive star, no such process was necessary. Numerical results were analysed when the system reached the statistical steady state. It was shown that the penetration distance in pressure scaleheights is of the order of unity. The scaling relations between penetration distance, input flux and vertical velocity fluctuations studied by Singh et al. were checked. The anisotropy of the turbulent convection and the diffusion models of the third-order moments representing the non-local transport were also investigated. These models are dramatically affected by the velocity fields and no universal constant parameters seem to exist. The limitations of the numerical results were also discussed.

An Overview of OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS), a SPARC Emerging Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Manney, G. L.; Hoor, P. M.; Bourassa, A. E.; Braathen, G.; Chang, K. L.; Hegglin, M. I.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Leblanc, T.; Livesey, N. J.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Stiller, G. P.; Tegtmeier, S.; Thouret, V.; Voigt, C.; Walker, K. A.

2017-12-01

The distribution of tracers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) shows large spatial and temporal variability because of interactions of transport, chemical, and mixing processes near the tropopause, as well as variations in the location of the tropopause itself. This strongly affects quantitative estimates of the impact of radiatively active substances, including ozone and water vapour, on surface temperatures, and complicates diagnosis of dynamical processes such as stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE). The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) emerging activity OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS) aims to reduce the uncertainties in trend estimates by accounting for these dynamically induced sources of variability. Achieving these goals by using existing UTLS trace gas observations from aircraft, ground-based, balloon and satellite platforms requires a consistent analysis of these different data with respect to the tropopause or the jets. As a central task for OCTAV-UTLS, we are developing and applying common metrics, calculated using the same reanalysis datasets, to compare UTLS data using geophysically-based coordinate systems including tropopause and upper tropospheric jet relative coordinates. In addition to assessing present day measurement capabilities, OCTAV-UTLS will assess gaps in current geographical / temporal sampling of the UTLS that limit our ability to determine atmospheric composition variability and trends. This talk will provide an overview of the OCTAV-UTLS activity and some examples of initial calculations of geophysically-based coordinates and comparisons of remapped data.

Trends in mortality from septicaemia and pneumonia with economic development: an age-period-cohort analysis.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M; Schooling, C Mary

2012-01-01

Hong Kong population has experienced drastic changes in its economic development in the 1940s. Taking advantage of Hong Kong's unique demographic and socioeconomic history, characterized by massive, punctuated migration waves from Southern China, and recent, rapid transition from a pre-industrialized society to the first ethnic Chinese community reaching "first world" status over the last 60 years (i.e., in two or three generations), we examined the longitudinal trends in infection related mortality including septicemia compared to trends in non-bacterial pneumonia to generate hypotheses for further testing in other recently transitioned economies and to provide generalized aetiological insights on how economic transition affects infection-related mortality. We used deaths from septicemia and pneumonia not specified as bacterial, and population figures in Hong Kong from 1976-2005. We fitted age-period-cohort models to decompose septicemia and non-bacterial pneumonia mortality rates into age, period and cohort effects. Septicaemia-related deaths increased exponentially with age, with a downturn by period. The birth cohort curves had downward inflections in both sexes in the 1940s, with a steeper deceleration for women. Non-bacterial pneumonia-related deaths also increased exponentially with age, but the birth cohort patterns showed no downturns for those born in the 1940s. The observed changes appeared to suggest that better early life conditions may enable better development of adaptive immunity, thus enhancing immunity against bacterial infections, with greater benefits for women than men. Given the interaction between the immune system and the gonadotropic axis, these observations are compatible with the hypothesis that upregulation of the gonadotropic axis underlies some of the changes in disease patterns with economic development.

Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; McCarthy, G. D.; Cunningham, S. A.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Johns, W. E.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Moat, B. I.; Duchez, A.; Bryden, H. L.

2014-02-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable-based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April 2008 to March 2012, the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the southward flow above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of lower North Atlantic deep water below 3000 m. The transport of lower North Atlantic deep water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Multi-year levels and trends of non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations observed in ambient air in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine

2016-09-01

Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.

Trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma, 1951–2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Daniel M.; Krieger, Joshua D.; Merriman, Katherine R.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) conducted a statistical analysis of trends in precipitation, streamflow, reservoir pool elevations, and reservoir releases in Arkansas and selected sites in Louisiana, Missouri, and Oklahoma for the period 1951–2011. The Mann-Kendall test was used to test for trends in annual and seasonal precipitation, annual and seasonal streamflows of 42 continuous-record USGS streamflow-gaging stations, annual pool elevations and releases from 16 USACE reservoirs, and annual releases from 11 dams on the Arkansas River. A statistically significant (p≤0.10) upward trend was observed in annual precipitation for the State, with a Sen slope of approximately 0.10 inch per year. Autumn and winter were the only seasons that had statistically significant trends in precipitation. Five of six physiographic sections and six of seven 4-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC) regions in Arkansas had statistically significant upward trends in autumn precipitation, with Sen slopes of approximately 0.06 to 0.10 inch per year. Sixteen sites had statistically significant upward trends in the annual mean daily streamflow and were located on streams that drained regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation. Expected annual rates of change corresponding to statistically significant trends in annual mean daily streamflows, which ranged from 0.32 to 0.88 percent, were greater than those corresponding to regions with statistically significant upward trends in annual precipitation, which ranged from 0.19 to 0.28 percent, suggesting that the observed trends in regional annual precipitation do not fully account for the observed trends in annual mean daily streamflows. Trends in annual maximum daily streamflows were similar to trends in the annual mean daily streamflows but were only statistically significant at seven sites. There were more statistically significant trends (28 of 42 sites) in the

A decreasing trend in fall-related hip fracture incidence in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Cassell, E; Clapperton, A

2013-01-01

In Victoria, Australia, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased significantly by 25% over the period 1998/1999-2008/2009. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people. The study aim was to investigate trends in the incidence of fall-related and hip fracture hospitalisations among Victorians aged 65 years and older overall and by age, gender, country of birth, socio-economic status (SES) and location of the event (home, residential care institution, etc.) over the 11-year period 1998/1999 to 2008/2009. Annual counts and age-standardised rates for fall-related hospitalisations among people aged 65 years and older were estimated using Victorian hospital admissions data. The statistical significance of changes in trends over time were analysed using a log-linear regression model of the rate data assuming a Poisson distribution of cases. Although the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations increased significantly by 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9% to 18%) in Victoria, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased from 600/100,000 in 1998/1999 to 467/100,000 in 2008/2009 - an estimated overall reduction of 25% (95% CI, -29% to -22%). By contrast, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations for fractures at other body sites either increased significantly or showed no significant change. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in both males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in both Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people but not in people living in residential care facilities. Despite the downward trend in the age-standardised incidence of

Mesosphere-Stratosphere Coupling: Implications for Climate Variability and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Mark P.

2004-01-01

A key aspect of this project is the establishment of a causal link from circulation anomalies in the lower mesosphere and stratopause region downward through the stratosphere to the troposphere. The observational link for stratospheric sudden warmings and surface climate is fairly clear. However, our understanding of the dynamics is incomplete. We have been making significant progress in the area of dynamical mechanisms by which circulation anomalies in the stratosphere affect the troposphere. We are trying to understand the details and sequence of events that occur when a middle atmosphere (wind) anomaly propagates downward to near the tropopause. The wind anomaly could be caused by a warming or solar variations in the low-latitude stratopause region, or could have other causes. The observations show a picture that is consistent with a circulation anomaly that descends to the tropopause region, and can be detected as low as the mid-troposphere. Processes near the stratopause in the tropics appear to be important precursors to the wintertime development of the northern polar vortex. This may affect significantly our understanding of the process by which low-latitude wind anomalies in the low mesosphere and upper stratosphere evolve through the winter and affect the polar vortex.

Trends in added sugar intake and food sources in a cohort of older Australians: 15 years of follow-up from the Blue Mountains Eye Study.

PubMed

Moshtaghian, H; Louie, J C Y; Charlton, K E; Probst, Y C; Gopinath, B; Mitchell, P; Flood, V M

2017-06-01

The trend of added sugar (AS) intake has not been investigated in the Australian population, including in older adults. The present study aimed to assess trends and food sources of AS intake among a cohort of older Australians during 15 years of follow-up. Dietary data from participants of the Blue Mountains Eye Study (1264 men and 1614 women), aged ≥49 years at baseline, were collected. Dietary intakes were assessed at 5-yearly intervals (1992-94 to 2007-09) using a 145-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). AS content of FFQ food items was estimated using a stepwise systematic method. Trends for AS intake between baseline and the three follow-up periods were assessed using linear mixed modelling. In men, the mean (SEM) percentage of energy provided by AS intake (EAS%) declined from 10.4% (0.1%) at baseline to 9.4% (0.2%) at 15-year follow-up (P trend = 0.028). Women's mean (SEM) EAS% intake at baseline and 15-year follow-up was 9.2% (0.1%) and 8.8% (0.2%), respectively (P trend = 0.550). EAS% intake of men was significantly higher than that of women for 10 years (P < 0.05). Sugar products (table sugar, syrup, jam and honey) were the major sources of AS at all-time points and contributed to more than 40% and 35% of AS intake in men and women, respectively. Intake of sugar products decreased in men during follow-up (P trend < 0.001). An overall downward trend was observed in AS intake in both genders, however, was only significant for men during 15 years of follow-up. Table sugar and sugar-containing spreads represent the major source of AS in this cohort of older Australians. © 2016 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

Evolution of the use of noninvasive mechanical ventilation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a Spanish region, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Carpe-Carpe, Bienvenida; Hernando-Arizaleta, Lauro; Ibáñez-Pérez, M Carmen; Palomar-Rodríguez, Joaquín A; Esquinas-Rodríguez, Antonio M

2013-08-01

Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) appeared in the 1980s as an alternative to invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients with acute respiratory failure. We evaluated the introduction of NIV and the results in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in the Region of Murcia (Spain). A retrospective observational study based on the minimum basic hospital discharge data of all patients hospitalised for this pathology in all public hospitals in the region between 1997 and 2010. We performed a time trend analysis on hospital attendance, the use of each ventilatory intervention and hospital mortality through joinpoint regression. We identified 30.027 hospital discharges. Joinpoint analysis: downward trend in attendance (annual percentage change [APC]=-3.4, 95% CI: - 4.8; -2.0, P <.05) and in the group without ventilatory intervention (APC=-4.2%, -5.6; -2.8, P <.05); upward trend in the use of NIV (APC=16.4, 12.0; 20. 9, P <.05), and downward trend that was not statistically significant in IMV (APC=-4.5%, -10.3; 1.7). We observed an upward trend without statistical significance in overall mortality (APC=0.5, -1.3; 2.4) and in the group without intervention (APC=0.1, -1.6; 1.9); downward trend with statistical significance in the NIV group (APC=-7.1, -11.7; -2.2, P <.05) and not statistically significant in the IMV group (APC=-0,8, -6, 1; 4.8). The mean stay did not change substantially. The introduction of NIV has reduced the group of patients not receiving assisted ventilation. No improvement in results was found in terms of mortality or length of stay. Copyright © 2012 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Effect of a Surprising Downward Shift in Reinforcer Value on Stimulus Over-Selectivity in a Simultaneous Discrimination Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Gemma; Reed, Phil

2013-01-01

Stimulus over-selectivity refers to the phenomenon whereby behavior is controlled by a subset of elements in the environment at the expense of other equally salient aspects of the environment. The experiments explored whether this cue interference effect was reduced following a surprising downward shift in reinforcer value. Experiment 1 revealed…

A comparison of ground reaction force components according to the foothold heights in 16-t truck during downward step.

PubMed

Hyun, Seung-Hyun; Ryew, Che-Cheong

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to compare and analyze the components of ground reaction force (GRF) relative to the foothold heights during downward step of 16-t truck. Adult males (n= 10) jumped downward from each 1st, 2nd, 3rd foothold step and driver's seat orderly using hand rail. Sampling rate of force components of 3 axis (medial-lateral [ML] GRF, anterior-posterior [AP] GRF, peak vertical force [PVF]), variables (COPx, COPy, COP area) of center of pressure (COP), loading rate, and stability index (ML, AP, vertical, and dynamic postural stability index [DPSI]) processed from GRF system was cut off at 1,000 Hz. and variables was processed with repeated one-way analysis of variance. AP GRF, PVF and loading rate showed higher value in case of not used hand rail than that used hand rail in all 1st, 2nd, and 3rd of foothold step. DPSI showed more lowered stability in order of 2nd, 3rd step than 1st foothold step used with hand rail, of which showed lowest stability from driver's seat. COPx, COPy, and COP area showed higher value in case of 2nd and 3rd than that of 1st of foothold step, and showed lowest stability from driver's seat. It is more desirable for cargo truck driver to utilize an available hand rail in order of 3rd, 2nd, and 1st of foothold step than downward stepping directly, thus by which may results in decrease of falling injuries and minimization of impulsive force transferring to muscular-skeletal system.

Constraining Swiss Methane Emissions from Atmospheric Observations: Sensitivities and Temporal Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Stephan; Leuenberger, Markus; Steinbacher, Martin; Eugster, Werner; Meinhardt, Frank; Bergamaschi, Peter; Emmenegger, Lukas; Brunner, Dominik

2017-04-01

Similar to other Western European countries, agricultural sources dominate the methane (CH4) emission budget in Switzerland. 'Bottom-up' estimates of these emissions are still connected with relatively large uncertainties due to considerable variability and uncertainties in observed emission factors for the underlying processes (e.g., enteric fermentation, manure management). Here, we present a regional-scale (˜300 x 200 km2) atmospheric inversion study of CH4 emissions in Switzerland making use of the recently established CarboCount-CH network of four stations on the Swiss Plateau as well as the neighbouring mountain-top sites Jungfraujoch and Schauinsland (Germany). Continuous observations from all CarboCount-CH sites are available since 2013. We use a high-resolution (7 x 7 km2) Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART-COSMO) in connection with two different inversion systems (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter) to estimate spatially and temporally resolved CH4 emissions for the Swiss domain in the period 2013 to 2016. An extensive set of sensitivity inversions is used to assess the overall uncertainty of our inverse approach. In general we find good agreement of the total Swiss CH4 emissions between our 'top-down' estimate and the national 'bottom-up' reporting. In addition, a robust emission seasonality, with reduced winter time values, can be seen in all years. No significant trend or year-to-year variability was observed for the analysed four-year period, again in agreement with a very small downward trend in the national 'bottom-up' reporting. Special attention is given to the influence of boundary conditions as taken from different global scale model simulations (TM5, FLEXPART) and remote observations. We find that uncertainties in the boundary conditions can induce large offsets in the national total emissions. However, spatial emission patterns are less sensitive to the choice of boundary condition. Furthermore and in order to demonstrate the

Trends in stratospheric NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2009-04-01

Data of spectrometric ground-based measurements of stratospheric column NO2 contents at stations within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) are analyzed for linear trends. The trend analysis takes into account the NO2 seasonal variation, effects of the 11-year solar and geomagnetic activity cycles, effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, and the effects of the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. The latitudinal distributions of the annual and seasonal trends in NO2 have been obtained. The annual trends are mostly positive in the southern hemisphere middle and low latitudes and negative in the European sector of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. In the high and polar latitudes of the two hemispheres, the annual estimates of trends are mostly statistically insignificant. However, a positive NO2 trend is observed at 78°S in the Antarctic, while positive and negative trends are observed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes. The maximum positive and negative trends are about 10% per decade by module. Seasonal estimates of the trends differ generally from the annual estimates. At stations of Zvenigorod, Jungfraujoch (northern hemisphere middle latitudes), Lauder, and Macquarie Island (southern hemisphere middle latitudes) the signs of the NO2 trends do not depend on season, although the trend values vary with season. At other stations, trend values, their statistical significance, and even their signs can vary with season. Nitrogen oxides affects the photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone directly and indirectly, influencing the effectiveness of ozone destruction in the chlorine cycle. The observed significant trends in stratospheric NO2 should result in noticeable perturbations of the rates of ozone destruction in the nitrogen cycle. The sensitivities of photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone to long-term changes in stratospheric NO2 and chlorine are estimated using a

Images of Bottomside Irregularities Observed at Topside Altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, William J.; Gentile, Louise C.; Shomo, Shannon R.; Roddy, Patrick A.; Pfaff, Robert F.

2012-01-01

We analyzed plasma and field measurements acquired by the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite during an eight-hour period on 13-14 January 2010 when strong to moderate 250 MHz scintillation activity was observed at nearby Scintillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) ground stations. C/NOFS consistently detected relatively small-scale density and electric field irregularities embedded within large-scale (approx 100 km) structures at topside altitudes. Significant spectral power measured at the Fresnel (approx 1 km) scale size suggests that C/NOFS was magnetically conjugate to bottomside irregularities similar to those directly responsible for the observed scintillations. Simultaneous ion drift and plasma density measurements indicate three distinct types of large-scale irregularities: (1) upward moving depletions, (2) downward moving depletions, and (3) upward moving density enhancements. The first type has the characteristics of equatorial plasma bubbles; the second and third do not. The data suggest that both downward moving depletions and upward moving density enhancements and the embedded small-scale irregularities may be regarded as Alfvenic images of bottomside irregularities. This interpretation is consistent with predictions of previously reported theoretical modeling and with satellite observations of upward-directed Poynting flux in the low-latitude ionosphere.

Fire Prevention Efforts in the Northwest

Treesearch

A.W. Lindenmuth; J.J. Keetch

1952-01-01

The frequency of forest fires in 13 northeastern states dropped about one-half from 1943 to 1950, exclusive of the fluctuations due to weather. The average downward trend and the annual observations from which the trend is determined are shown graphically in the lower chart on the other side of this page. Each dot on the chart is the ratio of fire occurrence (actual...

Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

2018-04-01

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

The flows of He-3 ions from the region of acceleration downwards to the photosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troitskaia, Evgenia; Arkhangelskaja, Irene; Arkhangelsky, Andrey; Lishnevskii, Andrey

We have studied the powerful solar event of January 20, 2005 by nuclear-physics methods. We based on gamma-emission data of AVS-F apparatus from SONG-D detector onboard CORONAS-F satellite. By the statistical modeling method, proposed in MSU SINP, we calculated the temporal profile of 2.223-MeV line. The calculations were performed under assumptions of Bessel type of accelerated particles energy spectrum, different (3) He content in the region of nuclear reactions to occur, and several density models of the solar atmosphere. The 4.44- and 6.13-MeV gamma-lines temporal profiles were also used. A comparison of the results of modeling with observational 2.223 MeV data reveals the numerical values of all mentioned parameters. The method gives the possibility to detect not only the time-averaged 2.223-MeV gamma-emission parameters over the whole flare, but also their evolution with the time of flare. Particularly, the comparison reveals an increase of the ratio of (3) He/ (1) H concentrations during the flare from 2×10 (-5) at the rise phase of the gamma-ray flux up to 2×10 (-4) at the decay one. The (3) He/ (1) H concentration ratio, averaged over whole time of 2.223-MeV gamma-emission, is equal to (1.40±0.15)×10(-4) . The enlarged ratio of (3) He/ (1) H in the region of nuclear reactions to occur and the increase of this ratio with the time may be understood by the supposition of the gradual accumulation of (3) He in the photosphere and low chromosphere. In this case we can assume that the increased (3) He content in the area of neutron interactions with the medium may be due to the predominant acceleration of (3) He ions in the corona. Then the ions slow down and propagate in the solar atmosphere, downward to the lower chromosphere and photosphere, where they can be accumulated. Several authors proposed different mechanisms of (3) He enrichment. For example, it was suggested that ion-acoustic turbulence could be responsible for this process (L. G. Kocharov et al

The Downward Spiral of Chronic Pain, Prescription Opioid Misuse, and Addiction: Cognitive, Affective, and Neuropsychopharmacologic Pathways

PubMed Central

Garland, Eric L.; Froeliger, Brett; Zeidan, Fadel; Partin, Kaitlyn; Howard, Matthew O.

2013-01-01

Prescription opioid misuse and addiction among chronic pain patients are emerging public health concerns of considerable significance. Estimates suggest that more than 10% of chronic pain patients misuse opioid analgesics, and the number of fatalities related to nonmedical or inappropriate use of prescription opioids is climbing. Because the prevalence and adverse consequences of this threat are increasing, there is a pressing need for research that identifies the biobehavioral risk chain linking chronic pain, opioid analgesia, and addictive behaviors. To that end, the current manuscript draws upon current neuropsychopharmacologic research to provide a conceptual framework of the downward spiral leading to prescription opioid misuse and addiction among chronic pain patients receiving opioid analgesic pharmacotherapy. Addictive use of opioids is described as the outcome of a cycle initiated by chronic pain and negative affect and reinforced by opioidergic-dopamingeric interactions, leading to attentional hypervigilance for pain and drug cues, dysfunctional connectivity between self-referential and cognitive control networks in the brain, and allostatic dysregulation of stress and reward circuitry. Implications for clinical practice are discussed; multimodal, mindfulness-oriented treatment is introduced as a potentially effective approach to disrupting the downward spiral and facilitating recovery from chronic pain and opioid addiction. PMID:23988582

The downward spiral of chronic pain, prescription opioid misuse, and addiction: cognitive, affective, and neuropsychopharmacologic pathways.

PubMed

Garland, Eric L; Froeliger, Brett; Zeidan, Fadel; Partin, Kaitlyn; Howard, Matthew O

2013-12-01

Prescription opioid misuse and addiction among chronic pain patients are emerging public health concerns of considerable significance. Estimates suggest that more than 10% of chronic pain patients misuse opioid analgesics, and the number of fatalities related to nonmedical or inappropriate use of prescription opioids is climbing. Because the prevalence and adverse consequences of this threat are increasing, there is a pressing need for research that identifies the biobehavioral risk chain linking chronic pain, opioid analgesia, and addictive behaviors. To that end, the current manuscript draws upon current neuropsychopharmacologic research to provide a conceptual framework of the downward spiral leading to prescription opioid misuse and addiction among chronic pain patients receiving opioid analgesic pharmacotherapy. Addictive use of opioids is described as the outcome of a cycle initiated by chronic pain and negative affect and reinforced by opioidergic-dopamingeric interactions, leading to attentional hypervigilance for pain and drug cues, dysfunctional connectivity between self-referential and cognitive control networks in the brain, and allostatic dysregulation of stress and reward circuitry. Implications for clinical practice are discussed; multimodal, mindfulness-oriented treatment is introduced as a potentially effective approach to disrupting the downward spiral and facilitating recovery from chronic pain and opioid addiction. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

2015-03-01

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation 2004 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, Stuart; Smeed, David; Johns, William; Meinen, Chris; Rayner, Darren; Moat, Ben; Duchez, Aurelie; Bryden, Harry; Baringer Molly, O.; McCarthy, Gerard

2014-05-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April~2008 to March 2012 the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the subtropical gyre above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water below 3000 m. The transport of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Social comparison in the brain: A coordinate-based meta-analysis of functional brain imaging studies on the downward and upward comparisons.

PubMed

Luo, Yi; Eickhoff, Simon B; Hétu, Sébastien; Feng, Chunliang

2018-01-01

Social comparison is ubiquitous across human societies with dramatic influence on people's well-being and decision making. Downward comparison (comparing to worse-off others) and upward comparison (comparing to better-off others) constitute two types of social comparisons that produce different neuropsychological consequences. Based on studies exploring neural signatures associated with downward and upward comparisons, the current study utilized a coordinate-based meta-analysis to provide a refinement of understanding about the underlying neural architecture of social comparison. We identified consistent involvement of the ventral striatum and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in downward comparison and consistent involvement of the anterior insula and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex in upward comparison. These findings fit well with the "common-currency" hypothesis that neural representations of social gain or loss resemble those for non-social reward or loss processing. Accordingly, we discussed our findings in the framework of general reinforcement learning (RL) hypothesis, arguing how social gain/loss induced by social comparisons could be encoded by the brain as a domain-general signal (i.e., prediction errors) serving to adjust people's decisions in social settings. Although the RL account may serve as a heuristic framework for the future research, other plausible accounts on the neuropsychological mechanism of social comparison were also acknowledged. Hum Brain Mapp 39:440-458, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long Term Trend Analysis and Assessment of Water Quality in the Penchala River, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chow, M. F.; Haris, H. B.; Mohd Sidek, L. B.

2014-12-01

Rapid urban expansion produces negative impacts on the natural environment, especially river water quality. Studies assessing long term changes of water quality have been recognized as a key tool for understanding ongoing processes in watersheds and for providing an essential background for evaluation of rapid changes within industrialized and populated urban areas. Unfortunately, only limited studies are available for developing countries such as Malaysia. Thus, a long term study was conducted to evaluate water quality trends at Pencala river basin that has undergone extensive land use changes related to industrial, agricultural and urban activities. Fifteen physical and chemical variables were analysed in river water samples collected every month over a period of 13 years, between 1997 and 2009. The trend study was performed using the Mann-Kendall Seasonal test and the Sen's Slope estimator. Results revealed that most water quality parameters showed a downward trend for yearly average concentration. The water quality index (WQI) for Pencala River was improved from Class V to Class IV, according to National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia. BOD, COD, NH3-N and SS show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative. Continued long-term and high frequency monitoring is necessary to establish plans and policies for effective water resources management.

Change in the Beaufort Sea ecosystem: Diverging trends in body condition and/or production in five marine vertebrate species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwood, L. A.; Smith, T. G.; George, J. C.; Sandstrom, S. J.; Walkusz, W.; Divoky, G. J.

2015-08-01

Studies of the body condition of five marine vertebrate predators in the Beaufort Sea, conducted independently during the past 2-4 decades, suggest each has been affected by biophysical changes in the marine ecosystem. We summarize a temporal trend of increasing body condition in two species (bowhead whale subadults, Arctic char), in both cases influenced by the extent and persistence of annual sea ice. Three other species (ringed seal, beluga, black guillemot chicks), consumers with a dietary preference for Arctic cod, experienced declines in condition, growth and/or production during the same time period. The proximate causes of these observed changes remain unknown, but may reflect an upward trend in secondary productivity, and a concurrent downward trend in the availability of forage fishes, such as the preferred Arctic cod. To further our understanding of these apparent ecosystem shifts, we urge the use of multiple marine vertebrate species in the design of biophysical sampling studies to identify causes of these changes. Continued long-term, standardized monitoring of vertebrate body condition should be paired with concurrent direct (stomach contents) or indirect (isotopes, fatty acids) monitoring of diet, detailed study of movements and seasonal ranges to establish and refine baselines, and identification of critical habitats of the marine vertebrates being monitored. This would be coordinated with biophysical and oceanographic sampling, at spatial and temporal scales, and geographic locations, that are relevant to the home range, critical habitats and prey of the vertebrate indicator species showing changes in condition and related parameters.

FAST satellite observations of large-amplitude solitary structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ergun, R. E.; Carlson, C. W.; McFadden, J. P.; Mozer, F. S.; Delory, G. T.; Peria, W.; Chaston, C. C.; Temerin, M.; Roth, I.; Muschietti, L.; Elphic, R.; Strangeway, R.; Pfaff, R.; Cattell, C. A.; Klumpar, D.; Shelley, E.; Peterson, W.; Moebius, E.; Kistler, L.

We report observations of “fast solitary waves” that are ubiquitous in downward current regions of the mid-altitude auroral zone. The single-period structures have large amplitudes (up to 2.5 V/m), travel much faster than the ion acoustic speed, carry substantial potentials (up to ∼100 Volts), and are associated with strong modulations of energetic electron fluxes. The amplitude and speed of the structures distinguishes them from ion-acoustic solitary waves or weak double layers. The electromagnetic signature appears to be that of an positive charge (electron hole) traveling anti-earthward. We present evidence that the structures are in or near regions of magnetic-field-aligned electric fields and propose that these nonlinear structures play a key role in supporting parallel electric fields in the downward current region of the auroral zone.

Kinematic differences exist between transtibial amputee fallers and non-fallers during downwards step transitioning.

PubMed

Vanicek, Natalie; Strike, Siobhán C; Polman, Remco

2015-08-01

Stair negotiation is biomechanically more challenging than level gait. There are few biomechanical assessments of transtibial amputees descending stairs and none specifically related to falls. Stair descent may elicit more differences than level gait in amputees with and without a previous falls history. The aim of this study was to compare the gait kinematics of fallers and non-fallers during downwards step transitioning in transtibial amputees. Cross-sectional study. Six fallers and five non-fallers completed step transition trials on a three-step staircase at their self-selected pace. Nine participants exhibited a clear preference to lead with the affected limb, while two had no preference. Four participants self-selected a step-to rather than a reciprocal stair descent strategy. The fallers who used a reciprocal strategy walked 44% more quickly than the non-fallers. To compensate for the lack of active plantar flexion of the prosthetic foot, exaggerated range of motion occurred proximally at the pelvis during swing. The step-to group was more reliant on the handrails than the reciprocal group and walked more slowly. As anticipated, the fallers walked faster than the non-fallers despite employing the more difficult 'roll-over' technique. Handrail use could help to improve dynamic control during downwards step transitions. Transtibial amputees are advised to descend steps using external support, such as handrails, for enhanced dynamic control. Hip abductor and knee extensor eccentric strength should be improved through targeted exercise. Prosthetic socket fit should be checked to allow adequate knee range of motion on the affected side. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

Secular trend, seasonality and effects of a community-based intervention on neonatal mortality: follow-up of a cluster-randomised trial in Quang Ninh province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Eriksson, Leif; Nga, Nguyen T; Hoa, Dinh T Phuong; Duc, Duong M; Bergström, Anna; Wallin, Lars; Målqvist, Mats; Ewald, Uwe; Huy, Tran Q; Thuy, Nguyen T; Do, Tran Thanh; Lien, Pham T L; Persson, Lars-Åke; Selling, Katarina Ekholm

2018-05-15

Little is know about whether the effects of community engagement interventions for child survival in low-income and middle-income settings are sustained. Seasonal variation and secular trend may blur the data. Neonatal mortality was reduced in a cluster-randomised trial in Vietnam where laywomen facilitated groups composed of local stakeholders employing a problem-solving approach for 3 years. In this analysis, we aim at disentangling the secular trend, the seasonal variation and the effect of the intervention on neonatal mortality during and after the trial. In Quang Ninh province, 44 communes were allocated to intervention and 46 to control. Births and neonatal deaths were assessed in a baseline survey in 2005, monitored during the trial in 2008-2011 and followed up by a survey in 2014. Time series analyses were performed on monthly neonatal mortality data. There were 30 187 live births and 480 neonatal deaths. The intervention reduced the neonatal mortality from 19.1 to 11.6 per 1000 live births. The reduction was sustained 3 years after the trial. The control areas reached a similar level at the time of follow-up. Time series decomposition analysis revealed a downward trend in the intervention areas during the trial that was not found in the control areas. Neonatal mortality peaked in the hot and wet summers. A community engagement intervention resulted in a lower neonatal mortality rate that was sustained but not further reduced after the end of the trial. When decomposing time series of neonatal mortality, a clear downward trend was demonstrated in intervention but not in control areas. ISRCTN44599712, Post-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trend surface models in the representation and analysis of time factors in cancer mortality.

PubMed

Cislaghi, C; Negri, E; La Vecchia, C; Levi, F

1990-01-01

A method of graphic representation of time factors in cancer mortality is presented, based on different tonalities of grey applied to the surface of the matrix defined by various age-specific rates. It is illustrated using mortality data from cancers of the mouth or pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung in Italian and Swiss males. Progressively more complex regression surface equations are defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age and cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific rate). General patterns of trends were thus identified, showing important similarities in cohort and period effects, but also noticeable differences in time-related factors in mortality from various neoplasms of the upper digestive and respiratory tract. For instance, there were declines in mortality from cancers of the mouth or pharynx in the oldest age groups, whereas rates were appreciably upwards at younger and middle age, particularly in Italy. Likewise, cancers of the oesophagus and, chiefly, of the larynx were substantially increasing, on a cohort basis, in oldest Italian males. Temporal pattern for laryngeal cancer in Italy was similar to that of lung cancer, thus suggesting that (cigarette) smoking has a greater impact on this cancer site as compared with alcohol. However, it is difficult to explain, on this basis alone, the totally diverging pattern for cancer of the larynx (downwards) and of the lung (upwards) observed among older Swiss males. These examples indicate that trend surface models are a useful summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in cancer mortality.

Impacts of ontogenetically migrating copepods on downward carbon flux in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobari, Toru; Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ueda, Ai; Tsuda, Atsushi; Silver, Mary W.; Kitamura, Minoru

2008-07-01

To evaluate the impacts of ontogenetically (seasonally) migrating copepods on carbon transport to the mesopelagic zone, we investigated depth distribution, population structure, and feeding activity of the ontogentic copepod community in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean from day-night pairs of zooplankton samples down to 1000 m during the VERtical Transport In the Global Ocean (VERTIGO) program. Over the 31 July-16 August 2005 study period, the biomass of Neocalanus cristatus and Neocalanus plumchrus predominated in the near surface waters, while Neocalanus flemingeri was already dormant at depth. We observed a strong diel migration for Metridia pacifica, and a seasonal downward migration for Eucalanus bungii. Based on gut pigment analysis, ingestion rate of the copepod community was 214-375 mg C m -2 day -1, which was equal to 26-37% of the concurrent primary production. However, comparison of grazing estimated from gut pigments to calculated carbon demand of the copepod community indicates that phytoplankton comprised 37-59% of the ingested carbon. Thus, the copepod community appears to have also relied on detritus and microzooplankton for their nutrition, likely because primary production during this time was dominated by picophytoplankton too small to be grazed by these large copepods. Fecal pellet flux by the copepod community was estimated to account for 141-223% of the sedimentary particulate organic carbon (POC) flux at 150 m, suggesting considerable fragmentation and consumption of pellets in the upper layers. Fecal pellets alone were adequate to meet copepod carbon demand in the surface 0-150 m layer. Active carbon flux by diel migration of M. pacifica (respiration, egestion, and mortality) was 4-17 mg C m -2 day -1, equal to 6-44% of sedimentary POC flux at 150 m. Active carbon flux by N. flemingeri ontogenetic migration (i.e., respiration and mortality at depth) contributed 246 mg C m -2 year -1, equal to 9% of sedimentary POC flux at 1000 m. The

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News

PubMed Central

Nghiem, Le T. P.; Papworth, Sarah K.; Lim, Felix K. S.; Carrasco, Luis R.

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics—approximated using Google search volume—varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public. PMID:27028399

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

PubMed

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Global Trends in Chlorophyll Concentration Observed with the Satellite Ocean Colour Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melin, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Chuprin, A.; Grant, M.; Jackson, T.; Sathyendranath, S.

2016-08-01

To detect climate change signals in the data records derived from remote sensing of ocean colour, combining data from multiple missions is required, which implies that the existence of inter-mission differences be adequately addressed prior to undertaking trend studies. Trend distributions associated with merged products are compared with those obtained from single-mission data sets in order to evaluate their suitability for climate studies. Merged products originally developed for operational applications such as near-real time distribution (GlobColour) do not appear to be proper climate data records, showing large parts of the ocean with trends significantly different from trends obtained with SeaWiFS, MODIS or MERIS. On the other hand, results obtained from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data are encouraging, showing a good consistency with single-mission products.

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Uncertainty in regional and zonal monthly mean downward surface irradiances from Edition 4.0 CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) data product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, S.; Rutan, D. A.; Rose, F. G.; Loeb, N. G.

2017-12-01

The surface of the Earth receives solar radiation (shortwave) and emission from the atmosphere (longwave). At a global and annual mean approximately 12% of solar radiation incident on the surface is reflected and the rest is absorbed by the surface. The surface emits radiation proportional to the forth power of the temperature. Although the uncertainty in global and annual mean surface irradiances is estimated in earlier studies (Zhang et al. 1995, 2004; L'Ecuyer et al. 2008; Stephens et al. 2012; Kato et al. 2012), only a few studies estimated the uncertainty in computed surface irradiances at smaller spatial and temporal scales (Zhang et al. 1995, 2004; Kato et al. 2012). We use surface observations at 46 buoys and 36 land sites and newly released the Edition 4.0 Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF)-surface data product to estimate the uncertainty in regional and zonal monthly mean downward shortwave and longwave surface irradiances. The root-mean-square difference of monthly mean computed and observed irradiances is used for the regional uncertainty. The uncertainty is separated into bias and spatially random components. The random component decreases when irradiances are averaged over a larger area, nearly inversely proportional to the number of surface observation sites. The presentation provides the uncertainty in the regional and zonal monthly mean downward surface irradiances over ocean and land. ReferencesKato, S. and N.G.Loeb, D. A.Rutan, F. G. Rose, S. Sun-Mack,W.F.Miller, and Y. Chen, 2012. Surv. Geophys., 33, 395-412, doi:10.1007/s10712-012-9179-x. L'Ecuyer, T. S., N. B. Wood, T. Haladay, G. L. Stephens, and P. W. Stackhouse Jr., 2008, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D00A15, doi:10.1029/2008JD009951. Stephens, G. L. and Coauthors, 2012, Nat. Geosci., 5, 691-696, doi:10.1038/ngeo1580. Zhang, Y., W. B. Rossow, A. A. Lacis, V. Oinas, and M. I. Mishchenko, 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D19105, doi:10.1029/2003JD

Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo: the role of downward pumping and the equatorward propagation of activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karak, Bidya Binay; Cameron, Robert

2016-05-01

We investigate the role of downward magnetic pumping near the surface using a kinematic Babcock-Leighton model. We find that the pumping causes the poloidal field to become predominately radial in the near-surface shear layer. This allows the negative radial shear in the near-surface layer to effectively act on the radial field to produce a toroidal field. Consequently, we observe a clear equatorward migration of the toroidal field at low latitudes even when there is no meridional flow in the deep CZ. We show a case where the period of a dynamo wave solution is approximately 11 years. Flux transport models are also shown with periods close to 11 years. Both the dynamo wave and flux transport dynamo are thus able to reproduce some of the observed features of solar cycle. The main difference between the two types of dynamo is the value of $\\alpha$ required to produce dynamo action. In both types of dynamo, the surface meridional flow helps to advect and build the polar field in high latitudes, while in flux transport dynamo the equatorward flow near the bottom of CZ advects toroidal field to cause the equatorward migration in butterfly wings and this advection makes the dynamo easier by transporting strong toroidal field to low latitudes where $\\alpha$ effect works. Another conclusion of our study is that the magnetic pumping suppresses the diffusion of fields through the photospheric surface which helps to achieve the 11-year dynamo cycle at a moderately larger value of magnetic diffusivity than has previously been used.

Interannual variability in stratiform cloudiness and sea surface temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Joel R.; Leovy, Conway B.

1994-01-01

Marine stratiform cloudiness (MSC)(stratus, stratocumulus, and fog) is widespread over subtropical oceans west of the continents and over midlatitude oceans during summer, the season when MSC has maximum influence on surface downward radiation and is most influenced by boundary-layer processes. Long-term datasets of cloudiness and sea surface teperature (SST) from surface observations from 1952 to 1981 are used to examine interannual variations in MSC and SST. Linear correlations of anomalies in seasonal MSC amount with seasonal SST anomalies are negative and significant in midlatitude and eastern subtropical oceans, especially during summer. Significant negative correlations between SST and nimbostratus and nonprecipitating midlevel cloudiness are also observed at midlatitudes during summer, suggesting that summer storm tracks shift from year to year following year-to-year meridional shifts in the SST gradient. Over the 30-yr period, there are significant upward trends in MSC amount over the northern midlatitude oceans and a significant downward trend off the coast of California. The highest correlations and trends occur where gradients in MSC and SST are strongest. During summer, correlations between SST and MSC anomalies peak at zero lag in midlatitudes where warm advection prevails, but SST lags MSC in subtropical regions where cold advection predominates. This difference is attributed to a tendency for anomalies in latent heat flux to compensate anomalies in surface downward radiation in warm advection regions but not in cold advection regions.

DVT Management and Outcome Trends, 2001 to 2014.

PubMed

Morillo, Raquel; Jiménez, David; Aibar, Miguel Ángel; Mastroiacovo, Daniela; Wells, Philip S; Sampériz, Ángel; Saraiva de Sousa, Marta; Muriel, Alfonso; Yusen, Roger D; Monreal, Manuel

2016-08-01

A comprehensive evaluation of temporal trends in the treatment of patients who have DVT may assist with identification of modifiable factors that contribute to short-term outcomes. We assessed temporal trends in length of hospital stay and use of pharmacological and interventional therapies among 26,695 adults with DVT enrolled in the Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica registry between 2001 and 2014. We also examined temporal trends in risk-adjusted rates of all-cause, pulmonary embolism-related, and bleeding-related death to 30 days after diagnosis. The mean length of hospital stay decreased from 9.0 days in 2001 to 2005 to 7.6 days in 2010 to 2014 (P < .01). For initial DVT treatment, the use of low-molecular-weight heparin decreased from 98% to 90% (P < .01). Direct oral anticoagulants use increased from 0.5% in 2010 to 13.4% in 2014 (P < .001). Risk-adjusted rates of 30-day all-cause mortality decreased from 3.9% in 2001 to 2005 to 2.7% in 2010 to 2014 (adjusted rate ratio per year, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.96; P < .01). VTE-related mortality showed a nonstatistically significant downward trend (adjusted rate ratio per year, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.44-1.10; P = .13), whereas 30-day bleeding-related mortality significantly decreased from 0.5% in 2001 to 2005 to 0.1% in 2010-2014 (adjusted rate ratio per year, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.40-0.77; P < .01). This international registry-based temporal analysis identified reductions in length of stay for adults hospitalized for DVT. The study also found a decreasing trend in adjusted rates of all-cause and bleeding-related mortality. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, D. J.; Gillett, N. P.; Lanzante, J.; Shine, K. P.; Thorne, P.

2010-12-01

Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy. Although many of the same modeling and observational tools have been applied, and there are many common scientific issues in both regions of the atmosphere, stratospheric temperatures have not captured the imagination of the public, the popular press and public policy community. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970’s to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature, including observing systems, dataset development for trend estimates, modeling approaches, and associated uncertainties. Recent developments will be highlighted.

Trends in ethnic disparities in stroke incidence in Auckland, New Zealand, during 1981 to 2003.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie; Anderson, Craig; Hacket, Maree; Feigin, Valery; Barber, P Alan; Broad, Joanna B; Bonita, Ruth

2006-01-01

Although geographical variations in stroke rates are well documented, limited data exist on temporal trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence. We assessed trends in ethnic-specific stroke rates using standard diagnostic criteria and community-wide surveillance procedures in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) in 1981 to 1982, 1991 to 1992, and 2002 to 2003. Indirect and direct methods were used to adjust first-ever (incident) and total (attack) rates for changes in the structure of the population and reported with 95% CIs. Ethnicity was self-defined and categorized as "NZ/European," "Maori," "Pacific peoples," and "Asian and other." Stroke attack (19%; 95% CI, 11% to 26%) and incidence rates (19%; 95% CI, 12% to 24%) declined significantly in NZ/Europeans from 1981 to 1982 to 2002 to 2003. These rates remained high or increased in other ethnic groups, particularly for Pacific peoples in whom stroke attack rates increased by 66% (95% CI; 11% to 225%) over the periods. Some favorable downward trends in vascular risk factors, such as cigarette smoking, were counterbalanced by increasing age, body mass index, and diabetes in certain ethnic groups. Divergent trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence and attack rates, and of associated risk factors, have occurred in Auckland over recent decades. The findings provide mixed views as to the future burden of stroke in populations undergoing similar lifestyle and structural changes.

Trends, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane over the western Pacific observed using voluntary observing ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terao, Y.; Kim, H.; Mukai, H.; Nojiri, Y.; Machida, T.; Tohjima, Y.; Saeki, T.; Maksyutov, S.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of trends, interannual variability (IAV), and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane (CH4) over the western Pacific between 55N and 35S from 1994 to 2011. Observations were made by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), using voluntary observation ships sailing between Japan and Australia/New Zealand and between Japan and North America, sampling background maritime air quasi-monthly with high resolution in latitude. We found remarkable phenomena in IAV of CH4 in the northern tropics over the western Pacific: 1) the high growth rate of 20 ppb/yr in mid-1997 ahead of the global increase in 1998, 2) the suppression of CH4 growth in 2007, 3) significantly smaller amplitude of seasonal cycle in 1999-2000 and in 2008. Results from the simulation and meteorological analysis indicated that the IAV in atmospheric circulation associated with the El Nino and La Nina significantly contributed to these events. Our observations were made at sites located relatively close to the large CH4 sources of East and Southeast Asia, which resulted in the high sensitivity of measured CH4 mixing ratios in the northern tropics to changes in atmospheric transport and emissions from East and Southeast Asia. We will show the results from inverse analysis using our ship measurements as well as other global dataset. The CH4 data set we presented here would be valuable in accurately and quantitatively estimating the global CH4 budget.

Who launched what, when and why; trends in global land-cover observation capacity from civilian earth observation satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belward, Alan S.; Skøien, Jon O.

2015-05-01

This paper presents a compendium of satellites under civilian and/or commercial control with the potential to gather global land-cover observations. From this we show that a growing number of sovereign states are acquiring capacity for space based land-cover observations and show how geopolitical patterns of ownership are changing. We discuss how the number of satellites flying at any time has progressed as a function of increased launch rates and mission longevity, and how the spatial resolutions of the data they collect has evolved. The first such satellite was launched by the USA in 1972. Since then government and/or private entities in 33 other sovereign states and geopolitical groups have chosen to finance such missions and 197 individual satellites with a global land-cover observing capacity have been successfully launched. Of these 98 were still operating at the end of 2013. Since the 1970s the number of such missions failing within 3 years of launch has dropped from around 60% to less than 20%, the average operational life of a mission has almost tripled, increasing from 3.3 years in the 1970s to 8.6 years (and still lengthening), the average number of satellites launched per-year/per-decade has increased from 2 to 12 and spatial resolution increased from around 80 m to less than 1 m multispectral and less than half a meter for panchromatic; synthetic aperture radar resolution has also fallen, from 25 m in the 1970s to 1 m post 2007. More people in more countries have access to data from global land-cover observing spaceborne missions at a greater range of spatial resolutions than ever before. We provide a compendium of such missions, analyze the changes and shows how innovation, the need for secure data-supply, national pride, falling costs and technological advances may underpin the trends we document.

Using Satellites to Investigate the Sensitivity of Longwave Downward Radiation to Water Vapor at High Elevations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naud, Catherine M.; Miller, James R.; Landry, Chris

2012-01-01

Many studies suggest that high-elevation regions may be among the most sensitive to future climate change. However, in situ observations in these often remote locations are too sparse to determine the feedbacks responsible for enhanced warming rates. One of these feedbacks is associated with the sensitivity of longwave downward radiation (LDR) to changes in water vapor, with the sensitivity being particularly large in many high-elevation regions where the average water vapor is often low. We show that satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be used to expand the current ground-based observational database and that the monthly averaged clear-sky satellite estimates of humidity and LDR are in good agreement with the well-instrumented Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies ground-based site in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains. The relationship between MODIS-retrieved precipitable water vapor and surface specific humidity across the contiguous United States was found to be similar to that previously found for the Alps. More important, we show that satellites capture the nonlinear relationship between LDR and water vapor and confirm that LDR is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor at high elevations in several midlatitude mountain ranges. Because the global population depends on adequate fresh water, much of which has its source in high mountains, it is critically important to understand how climate will change there. We demonstrate that satellites can be used to investigate these feedbacks in high-elevation regions where the coverage of surface-based observations is insufficient to do so.

Ionosphere of Mars observed by Mars Express.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinin, Eduard; Fraenz, Markus; Andrews, Dave; Morgan, Dave

2016-04-01

The Martian ionosphere is studied at different solar zenith angles using the local electron number densities and total electron content (TEC) derived from the observations by MARSIS onboard Mars Express. The data are complemented by the ASPERA-3 observations which provide us with the information about upward/downward velocity of the low-energy ions and electron precipitation. We consider the Mars Express observations at different solar cycle intervals. Different factors which influence the ionosphere dynamics are analyzed. The focus is made on a role of the crustal magnetic field on the Martian ionosphere and its influence on ion escape.

Changing Trends in the Clinical Presentation and Management of Complete Hydatidiform Mole Among Brazilian Women.

PubMed

Braga, Antonio; Moraes, Valéria; Maestá, Izildinha; Amim Júnior, Joffre; Rezende-Filho, Jorge de; Elias, Kevin; Berkowitz, Ross

2016-06-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate potential changes in the clinical, diagnostic, and therapeutic parameters of complete hydatidiform mole in the last 25 years in Brazil. A retrospective cohort study was conducted involving the analysis of 2163 medical records of patients diagnosed with complete hydatidiform mole who received treatment at the Rio de Janeiro Reference Center for Gestational Trophoblastic Disease between January 1988 and December 2012. For the statistical analysis of the natural history of the patients with complete molar pregnancies, time series were evaluated using the Cox-Stuart test and adjusted by linear regression models. A downward linear temporal trend was observed for gestational age of complete hydatidiform mole at diagnosis, which is also reflected in the reduced occurrence of vaginal bleeding, hyperemesis and pre-eclampsia. We also observed an increase in the use of uterine vacuum aspiration to treat molar pregnancy. Although the duration of postmolar follow-up was found to decline, this was not accompanied by any alteration in the time to remission of the disease or its progression to gestational trophoblastic neoplasia. Early diagnosis of complete hydatidiform mole has altered the natural history of molar pregnancy, especially with a reduction in classical clinical symptoms. However, early diagnosis has not resulted in a reduction in the development of gestational trophoblastic neoplasia, a dilemma that still challenges professionals working with gestational trophoblastic disease.

Malaria and health in Africa: the present situation and epidemiological trends.

PubMed

Brinkmann, U; Brinkmann, A

1991-09-01

The World Health Organization does not give any data on the malaria situation in Africa in its regular reports because of the "insufficiency and irregularity of reporting". Estimates on the total number of cases and the number of deaths vary considerably. They range from 35 million to 189 million per year depending on whose figures one uses. An intensive search of the literature using computer-based systems identified more than 1000 titles on the epidemiology of malaria. Out of them and from other sources finally 426 articles were used to describe the current malaria situation and observable trends in Africa. Major findings were that malaria is responsible for about 40% of fever cases, mortality is about 5 per 1000 per year, case fatality ranges from 2% to 24%. Admissions for malaria account for 20% to 50% of all admissions in African health services although only 8% to 25% of persons with malaria visit health services. Self-treatment is more common in urban areas (more than 60%) but an increasing number of people use some form of self protection in rural areas (2% to 25%). The resistance of malaria parasites to chloroquine and other drugs is widespread. Chloroquine resistance has reached a prevalence of about 30% at the RII level in most countries. Malaria incidence shows annual growth rates of 7.3% for Zambia, 10.4% for Togo, and 21.0% for Rwanda. The data for Burkina Faso show a downward trend of--14.7% during the years from 1973 to 1981. Since then malaria incidence is increasing at 11.0% per year. Hospital data reported from Zambia indicate that mortality is rising 5.2% per annum in children and 9.7% per annum in adults. Reasons for the increase of malaria and its role for development are discussed.

Lower thermospheric-enhanced sodium layers observed at low latitude and possible formation: Case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, X. H.; Dou, X. K.; Lei, J.; Chen, J. S.; Ding, Z. H.; Li, T.; Gao, Q.; Tang, W. W.; Cheng, X. W.; Wei, K.

2013-05-01

We report two lower thermospheric-enhanced sodium layer (TeSL) cases observed at a low-latitude station, Lijiang, China (26.7°N, 100.0°E), on 10 March and 10 April 2012, respectively. The TeSLs in the two cases were located at altitudes near 122 and 112 km, respectively. In addition, strong sporadic sodium layers (SSLs) near 100 km accompanied the TeSL observed on 10 March 2012. Both the TeSLs and SSLs exhibited tidal-induced downward motion. The adjacent ground-based and space-borne ionospheric radio observations showed strong Es layers before the appearance of the TeSLs, suggesting an " Es- TeSLs (SSLs)" chain formed through the tidal wind shear mechanism. Assuming that the vertical tidal wavelengths remain unchanged, it is found that in different regions caused by the tidal wind shear, different TeSLs evolution processes are expected: (1) in a tidal-convergence region, a TeSL/SSL with a downward propagation phase is enhanced due to a rapid decrease in the Na+lifetime at the lower altitude; (2) in an ion convergence-divergence interface region, a TeSL/SSL will still follow the tidal downward phase progression, but sodium density does not exhibit evident enhancement; and (3) when a TeSL/SSL enters into a tidal wind-divergence zone, the layer density tends to decrease.

The Italian national trends in smoking initiation and cessation according to gender and education.

PubMed

Sardu, C; Mereu, A; Minerba, L; Contu, P

2009-09-01

OBJECTIVES. This study aims to assess the trend in initiation and cessation of smoking across successive birth cohorts, according to gender and education, in order to provide useful suggestion for tobacco control policy. STUDY DESIGN. The study is based on data from the "Health conditions and resort to sanitary services" survey carried out in Italy from October 2004 to September 2005 by the National Institute of Statistics. Through a multisampling procedure a sample representative of the entire national territory was selected. In order to calculate trends in smoking initiation and cessation, data were stratified for birth cohorts, gender and education level, and analyzed through the life table method. The cumulative probability of smoking initiation, across subsequent generations, shows a downward trend followed by a plateau. This result highlights that there is not a shred of evidence to support the hypothesis of an anticipation in smoking initiation. The cumulative probability of quitting, across subsequent generations, follows an upward trend, highlighting the growing tendency of smokers to become an "early quitter", who give up within 30 years of age. Results suggest that the Italian antismoking approach, for the most part targeted at preventing the initiation of smoking emphasising the negative consequences, has an effect on the early smoking cessation. Health policies should reinforce the existing trend of "early quitting" through specific actions. In addition our results show that men with low education exhibit the higher probability of smoking initiation and the lower probability of early quitting, and therefore should be targeted with special attention.

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at 8 NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2014-09-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2%, but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45 km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Compososition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely: Ny-Alesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time-series varies by station, but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere, and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns; at Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0 % decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seems to be needed to observe it at the northern mid

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at eight NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2015-03-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2% but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely, Ny-Ålesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time series varies by station but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns where they are found positive. At Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0% decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seem to be needed to observe it at

Surface Downward Longwave Radiation Retrieval Algorithm for GEO-KOMPSAT-2A/AMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Seo-Hee; Lee, Kyu-Tae; Rim, Se-Hun; Zo, Il-Sung; Kim, Bu-Yo

2018-05-01

This study contributes to the development of an algorithm to retrieve the Earth's surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) for 2nd Geostationary Earth Orbit KOrea Multi-Purpose SATellite (GEO-KOMPSAT-2A; GK-2A)/Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI). Regarding simulation data for algorithm development, we referred to Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-interim reanalysis data. The clear sky DLR calculations were in good agreement with the Gangneung-Wonju National University (GWNU) Line-By-Line (LBL) model. Compared with CERES data, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 10.14Wm-2. In the case of cloudy sky DLR, we estimated the cloud base temperature empirically by utilizing cloud liquid water content (LWC) according to the cloud type. As a result, the correlation coefficients with CERES all sky DLRs were greater than 0.99. However, the RMSE between calculated DLR and CERES data was about 16.67Wm-2, due to ice clouds and problems of mismatched spatial and temporal resolutions for input data. This error may be reduced when GK-2A is launched and its products can be used as input data. Accordingly, further study is needed to improve the accuracy of DLR calculation by using high-resolution input data. In addition, when compared with BSRN surface-based observational data and retrieved DLR for all sky, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 and the RMSE was 31.55 Wm-2, which indicates relatively high accuracy. It is expected that increasing the number of experimental Cases will reduce the error.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Long‐term trends in stream water and precipitation chemistry at five headwater basins in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.; Mast, M. Alisa

1999-01-01

Stream water data from five headwater basins in the northeastern United States covering water years 1968–1996 and precipitation data from eight nearby precipitation monitoring sites covering water years 1984‐1996 were analyzed for temporal trends in chemistry using the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Concentrations of SO4declined at three of five streams during 1968–1996 (p < 0.1), and all of the streams exhibited downward trends in SO4 over the second half of the period (1984–1996). Concentrations of SO4 in precipitation declined at seven of eight sites from 1984 to 1996, and the magnitudes of the declines (−0.7 to −2.0 µeq L−1 yr−1) generally were similar to those of stream water SO4. These results indicate that changes in precipitation SO4 were of sufficient magnitude to account for changes in stream water SO4. Concentrations of Ca + Mg declined at three of five streams and five of eight precipitation sites from 1984 to 1996. Precipitation acidity decreased at five of eight sites during the same period, but alkalinity increased in only one stream. In most cases the decreases in stream water SO4 were similar in magnitude to declines in stream water Ca + Mg, which is consistent with the theory of leaching by mobile acid anions in soils. In precipitation the magnitudes of SO4 declines were similar to those of hydrogen, and declines in Ca +Mg were much smaller. This indicates that recent decreases in SO4 deposition are now being reflected in reduced precipitation acidity. The lack of widespread increases in stream water alkalinity, despite the prevalence of downward trends in stream water SO4, suggests that at most sites, increases in stream water pH and acid‐neutralizing capacity may be delayed until higher soil base‐saturation levels are achieved.

Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone.

Trends in pediatric liver transplant donors and deceased donor circumstance of death in the United States, 2002-2015.

PubMed

Yoeli, Dor; Goss, Matthew; Galván, Nhu Thao N; Desai, Moreshwar S; Miloh, Tamir A; Rana, Abbas

2018-05-01

While much of the discussion regarding expanding the donor pool for pediatric liver transplantation has surrounded the use of technical variant grafts, little attention has been directed toward changes in the deceased donor population. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in the circumstance of the death of deceased donors used for pediatric liver transplantation. All pediatric liver transplant recipients transplanted between 2002 and 2015 were identified in the UNOS database and were categorized based on the donor circumstance of death. There was no significant correlation between year of transplantation and number of pediatric liver transplants performed, pediatric donors, split livers, or living donors. There was a significant downward trend in donors from motor vehicle fatalities and an upward trend in suicide, non-MVA, and death due to natural causes. There was also an upward trend in drowning, one of the most common mechanisms of death among non-MVA in 2015. While the number of donors who died in MVA has fallen, the number of deceased donors who died from suicide, natural causes, and non-MVA, especially drowning, has increased, maintaining the overall number of pediatric deceased donor livers transplanted. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.