Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Understanding Southern Ocean SST Trends in Historical Simulations and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle

2017-04-01

Historical simulations with CMIP5 global climate models do not reproduce the observed 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) cooling, and most ensemble members predict gradual warming around Antarctica. In order to understand this discrepancy and the mechanisms behind the SO cooling, we analyze output from 19 CMIP5 models. For each ensemble member we estimate the characteristic responses of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions and linear convolution theory, we reconstruct the original CMIP5 simulations of 1979-2014 SO SST trends. We recover the CMIP5 ensemble mean trend, capture the intermodel spread, and reproduce very well the behavior of individual models. We thus suggest that GHG forcing and the SAM are major drivers of the simulated 1979-2014 SO SST trends. In consistence with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole, our results imply that the summer (DJF) and fall (MAM) SAM exert a particularly important effect on the SO SST. In some CMIP5 models the SO SST response to SAM partially counteracts the warming due to GHG forcing, while in other ensemble members the SAM-induced SO SST trends complement the warming effect of GHG forcing. The compensation between GHG and SAM-induced SO SST anomalies is model-dependent and is determined by multiple factors. Firstly, CMIP5 models have different characteristic SST step response functions to SAM. Kostov et al. (2016) relate these differences to biases in the models' climatological SO temperature gradients. Secondly, many CMIP5 historical simulations underestimate the observed positive trends in the DJF and MAM seasonal SAM indices. We show that this affects the models' ability to reproduce the observed SO cooling. Last but not least, CMIP5 models differ in their SO SST step response functions to GHG forcing. Understanding the diverse behavior of CMIP5 models helps shed light on the physical processes

A Test of Model Validation from Observed Temperature Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, S. F.

2006-12-01

How much of current warming is due to natural causes and how much is manmade? This requires a comparison of the patterns of observed warming with the best available models that incorporate both anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) as well as natural climate forcings (solar and volcanic). Fortunately, we have the just published U.S.-Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report (www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/default.htm), based on best current information. As seen in Fig. 1.3F of the report, modeled surface temperature trends change little with latitude, except for a stronger warming in the Arctic. The observations, however, show a strong surface warming in the northern hemisphere but not in the southern hemisphere (see Fig. 3.5C and 3.6D). The Antarctic is found to be cooling and Arctic temperatures, while currently rising, were higher in the 1930s than today. Although the Executive Summary of the CCSP report claims "clear evidence" for anthropogenic warming, based on comparing tropospheric and surface temperature trends, the report itself does not confirm this. Greenhouse models indicate that the tropics should provide the most sensitive location for their validation; trends there should increase by 200-300 percent with altitude, peaking at around 10 kilometers. The observations, however, show the opposite: flat or even decreasing tropospheric trend values (see Fig. 3.7 and also Fig. 5.7E). This disparity is demonstrated most strikingly in Fig. 5.4G, which shows the difference between surface and troposphere trends for a collection of models (displayed as a histogram) and for balloon and satellite data. [The disparities are less apparent in the Summary, which displays model results in terms of "range" rather than as histograms.] There may be several possible reasons for the disparity: Instrumental and other effects that exaggerate or otherwise distort observed temperature trends. Or, more likely: Shortcomings in models that result

Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2015-10-01

In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Global Distribution and Trends of Tropospheric Ozone: An Observation-Based Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, O. R.; Parrish, D. D.; Ziemke, J.; Cupeiro, M.; Galbally, I. E.; Gilge, S.; Horowitz, L.; Jensen, N. R.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.;

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard

2016-04-01

Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso

2007-01-01

Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.

Theoretical and experimental investigation of the nonlinear dynamical trends of passively mode-locked quantum dot lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghunathan, Ravi

In recent years, passively mode-locked quantum dot lasers have shown great promise as compact, efficient and reliable pulsed sources of light for a range of precision and high performance applications, such as high bit-rate optical communications, diverse waveform generation, metrology, and clock distribution in high-performance computing (HPC) processors. For such applications, stable optical pulses with short picosecond pulse durations and multi-gigahertz repetition rates are required. In addition, a low pulse-to-pulse timing jitter is also necessary to prevent errors arising from the ambiguity between neighboring pulses. In order to optimize pulse quality in terms of optical characteristics such as pulse shape and pulse train behavior, as well as RF characteristics such as phase noise and timing jitter, understanding the nonlinear output dynamics of such devices is of critical importance, not only to get a sense of the regimes of operation where device output might be stable or unstable, but also to gain insight into the parameters that influence the output characteristics the most, and how they can be accessed and exploited to optimize design and performance for next generation applications. In this dissertation, theoretical and experimental studies have been combined to investigate the dynamical trends of two-section passively mode-locked quantum dot lasers. On the theoretical side, a novel numerical modeling scheme is presented as a powerful and versatile framework to study the nonlinear dynamics specific to a device, with device-specific parameters extracted over a range of operating conditions. The practical utility of this scheme is then demonstrated, first, in an analytical capability to interpret and explain dynamical trends observed in experiment, and subsequently, as a predictive tool to guide experiment to operate in a desired dynamical regime. Modeling results are compared to experimental findings where possible. Finally, optical feedback from an

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Site-occupancy distribution modeling to correct population-trend estimates derived from opportunistic observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Schmid, Hans; Schaub, M.; Volet, B.; Hafliger, G.; Zbinden, N.

2010-01-01

Species' assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection-nondetection records) are generated. Within-season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site-occupancy models are applied directly to the detection-history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site-occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen-science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis. ) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus. ) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis. ) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria. ). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered

Pulsar-aided SETI experimental observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heidmann, J.; Biraud, F.; Tarter, J.

1989-01-01

The rotational frequencies of pulsars are used to select preferred radio frequencies for SETI. Pulsar rotational frequencies are converted into SETI frequencies in the 1-10 GHz Galactic radio window. Experimental observations using the frequencies are conducted for target stars closer than 25 parsecs, unknown targets in a globular cluster, and unknown targets in the Galaxy closer than 2.5 kpc. The status of these observations is discussed.

Observed Trends in West Coast Atmospheric River Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, K. R.; Swain, D. L.; Barnes, E. A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Understanding the changing characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in a warming climate is critical in light of their importance in generating precipitation and creating the potential for flood and geophysical hazards. Numerous changes to the characteristics of ARs under the influence of a changing climate have been documented or hypothesized; one simple hypothesis is that AR precipitation will occur at increasingly warm temperatures, potentially altering the critical rain/snow balance in snowpack-dependent watersheds and causing precipitation at higher elevations to fall as rain rather than snow. Not only would warmer, primarily rain-producing ARs greatly affect snow accumulation, but they might also increase the intensity of runoff, the potential for flooding, and the occurrence of rain-on-snow events. Since the West Coast of North America relies heavily on ARs as a source of precipitation and snowpack accumulation, these regions may be profoundly affected by changes in AR temperatures and associated impacts. Using a catalog of ARs encompassing 1979-2014 and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we assess whether detectable trends exist in cool season AR temperatures over the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We define AR temperature by the mean temperature of the air mass between 1000 hPa and 750 hPa, and compare AR temperature trends to background temperature trends over the same period. We find overall AR warming over this period and particularly robust warming in March ARs coincident with an apparent poleward shift in March AR frequency. Further analysis suggests that warmer ARs have higher rates of warming than cooler ARs. AR temperature trends generally scale with background temperature trends, although some regions exhibit a near one-to-one relationship while others are largely uncorrelated. The observed warming of ARs making landfall on the West Coast may have potentially significant implications for rain vs. snow at higher elevations, the

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

Analysis of trends in experimental observables: Reconstruction of the implosion dynamics and implications for fusion yield extrapolation for direct-drive cryogenic targets on OMEGA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, A.; Betti, R.; Mangino, D.; Woo, K. M.; Patel, D.; Christopherson, A. R.; Gopalaswamy, V.; Mannion, O. M.; Regan, S. P.; Goncharov, V. N.; Edgell, D. H.; Forrest, C. J.; Frenje, J. A.; Gatu Johnson, M.; Yu Glebov, V.; Igumenshchev, I. V.; Knauer, J. P.; Marshall, F. J.; Radha, P. B.; Shah, R.; Stoeckl, C.; Theobald, W.; Sangster, T. C.; Shvarts, D.; Campbell, E. M.

2018-06-01

This paper describes a technique for identifying trends in performance degradation for inertial confinement fusion implosion experiments. It is based on reconstruction of the implosion core with a combination of low- and mid-mode asymmetries. This technique was applied to an ensemble of hydro-equivalent deuterium-tritium implosions on OMEGA which achieved inferred hot-spot pressures ≈56 ± 7 Gbar [Regan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 025001 (2016)]. All the experimental observables pertaining to the core could be reconstructed simultaneously with the same combination of low and mid-modes. This suggests that in addition to low modes, which can cause a degradation of the stagnation pressure, mid-modes are present which reduce the size of the neutron and x-ray producing volume. The systematic analysis shows that asymmetries can cause an overestimation of the total areal density in these implosions. It is also found that an improvement in implosion symmetry resulting from correction of either the systematic mid or low modes would result in an increase in the hot-spot pressure from 56 Gbar to ≈ 80 Gbar and could produce a burning plasma when the implosion core is extrapolated to an equivalent 1.9 MJ symmetric direct illumination [Bose et al., Phys. Rev. E 94, 011201(R) (2016)].

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the

Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.

2012-04-01

The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Observed and Modeled Trends in Southern Ocean Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2003-01-01

Conceptual models and global climate model (GCM) simulations have both indicated the likelihood of an enhanced sensitivity to climate change in the polar regions, derived from the positive feedbacks brought about by the polar abundance of snow and ice surfaces. Some models further indicate that the changes in the polar regions can have a significant impact globally. For instance, 37% of the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 in simulations with the GCM of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is attributable exclusively to inclusion of sea ice variations in the model calculations. Both sea ice thickness and sea ice extent decrease markedly in the doubled CO, case, thereby allowing the ice feedbacks to occur. Stand-alone sea ice models have shown Southern Ocean hemispherically averaged winter ice-edge retreats of 1.4 deg latitude for each 1 K increase in atmospheric temperatures. Observations, however, show a much more varied Southern Ocean ice cover, both spatially and temporally, than many of the modeled expectations. In fact, the satellite passive-microwave record of Southern Ocean sea ice since late 1978 has revealed overall increases rather than decreases in ice extents, with ice extent trends on the order of 11,000 sq km/year. When broken down spatially, the positive trends are strongest in the Ross Sea, while the trends are negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas. Greater spatial detail can be obtained by examining trends in the length of the sea ice season, and those trends show a coherent picture of shortening sea ice seasons throughout almost the entire Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula and in the far western Weddell Sea immediately to the east of the Peninsula, with lengthening sea ice seasons around much of the rest of the continent. This pattern corresponds well with the spatial pattern of temperature trends, as the Peninsula region is the one region in the Antarctic with a strong

Analysis of trends in experimental observables: Reconstruction of the implosion dynamics and implications for fusion yield extrapolation for direct-drive cryogenic targets on OMEGA

DOE PAGES

Bose, A.; Betti, R.; Mangino, D.; ...

2018-05-29

This paper describes a technique for identifying trends in performance degradation for inertial con finement fusion implosion experiments. It is based on reconstruction of the implosion core with a combination of low- and mid-mode asymmetries. This technique was applied to an ensemble of hydro-equivalent deuterium-tritium implosions on OMEGA that achieved inferred hot-spot pressures ≈56 ± 7 Gbar [S. Regan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 025001 (2016)]. All the experimental observables pertaining to the core could be reconstructed simultaneously with the same combination of low and mid modes. This suggests that in addition to low modes, that can cause amore » degradation of the stagnation pressure, mid modes are present that reduce the size of the neutron and x-ray producing volume. The systematic analysis shows that asymmetries can cause an overestimation of the total areal density in these implosions. Finally, it is also found that an improvement in implosion symmetry resulting from correction of either the systematic mid or low modes would result in an increase of the hot-spot pressure from 56 Gbar to ≈ 80 Gbar and could produce a burning plasma when the implosion core is extrapolated to an equivalent 1.9 MJ symmetric direct illumination [A. Bose et al., Phys. Rev. E 94, 011201(R) (2016)].« less

Analysis of trends in experimental observables: Reconstruction of the implosion dynamics and implications for fusion yield extrapolation for direct-drive cryogenic targets on OMEGA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bose, A.; Betti, R.; Mangino, D.

This paper describes a technique for identifying trends in performance degradation for inertial con finement fusion implosion experiments. It is based on reconstruction of the implosion core with a combination of low- and mid-mode asymmetries. This technique was applied to an ensemble of hydro-equivalent deuterium-tritium implosions on OMEGA that achieved inferred hot-spot pressures ≈56 ± 7 Gbar [S. Regan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 025001 (2016)]. All the experimental observables pertaining to the core could be reconstructed simultaneously with the same combination of low and mid modes. This suggests that in addition to low modes, that can cause amore » degradation of the stagnation pressure, mid modes are present that reduce the size of the neutron and x-ray producing volume. The systematic analysis shows that asymmetries can cause an overestimation of the total areal density in these implosions. Finally, it is also found that an improvement in implosion symmetry resulting from correction of either the systematic mid or low modes would result in an increase of the hot-spot pressure from 56 Gbar to ≈ 80 Gbar and could produce a burning plasma when the implosion core is extrapolated to an equivalent 1.9 MJ symmetric direct illumination [A. Bose et al., Phys. Rev. E 94, 011201(R) (2016)].« less

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-08-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

A comparison of ozone trends from SME and SBUV satellite observations and model calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rusch, D. W.; Clancy, R. T.

1988-01-01

Data on monthly ozone abundance trends near the stratopause, observed by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer (UVS) on the SME and by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) on NIMBUS-7 are presented for June, September, and January of the years 1982-1986. Globally averaged trends determined from the SME data (-0.5 + or - 1.3 percent/yr) were found to fall within model calculations by Rusch and Clancy (1988); the SBUV trends, on the other hand, were found to exceed maximum predicted ozone decreases by a factor of 3 or more. Detailed comparison of the two data sets indicated that an absolute offset of 3 percent/yr accounts for much of the difference between the two trends; the offset is considered to be due to incomplete characterization of the SBUV calibration drift. Both the UVS and SBUV data exhibited similar seasonal and latitudinal variations in ozone trends, which were reproduced by photochemical model calculations that included latitude-dependent NMC temperature trends over the 1982-1986 period.

DFT:B3LYP/3-21G theoretical insights on the confocal Raman experimental observations in skin dermis of healthy young, healthy elderly, and diabetic elderly women

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Téllez Soto, Claudio Alberto; Pereira, Liliane; dos Santos, Laurita; Rajasekaran, Ramu; Fávero, Priscila; Martin, Airton Abrahão

2016-12-01

In the confocal Raman spectra of skin dermis, the band area in the spectral region of proline and hydroxyproline varies according to the age and health condition of the volunteers, classified as healthy young women, healthy elderly women, and diabetic elderly women. Another observation refers to the intensity variation and negative Raman shift of the amide I band. To understand these effects, we adopted a model system using the DFT/B3LYP:3-21G procedure, considering the amino acid chain formed by glycine, hydroxyproline, proline, and alanine, which interacts with two and six water molecules. Through these systems, polarizability variations were analyzed to correlate its values with the observed Raman intensities of the three groups of volunteers and to assign the vibrational spectra of the skin dermis. As a way to correlate other experimental trends, we propose a model of chemical reaction of water interchange between the bonding amino acids, in which water molecules are attached with glucose by hydrogen bonds. The theoretical results are in accordance with the observed experimental trends.

Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.

2016-12-01

Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will

Large-Scale Overlays and Trends: Visually Mining, Panning and Zooming the Observable Universe.

PubMed

Luciani, Timothy Basil; Cherinka, Brian; Oliphant, Daniel; Myers, Sean; Wood-Vasey, W Michael; Labrinidis, Alexandros; Marai, G Elisabeta

2014-07-01

We introduce a web-based computing infrastructure to assist the visual integration, mining and interactive navigation of large-scale astronomy observations. Following an analysis of the application domain, we design a client-server architecture to fetch distributed image data and to partition local data into a spatial index structure that allows prefix-matching of spatial objects. In conjunction with hardware-accelerated pixel-based overlays and an online cross-registration pipeline, this approach allows the fetching, displaying, panning and zooming of gigabit panoramas of the sky in real time. To further facilitate the integration and mining of spatial and non-spatial data, we introduce interactive trend images-compact visual representations for identifying outlier objects and for studying trends within large collections of spatial objects of a given class. In a demonstration, images from three sky surveys (SDSS, FIRST and simulated LSST results) are cross-registered and integrated as overlays, allowing cross-spectrum analysis of astronomy observations. Trend images are interactively generated from catalog data and used to visually mine astronomy observations of similar type. The front-end of the infrastructure uses the web technologies WebGL and HTML5 to enable cross-platform, web-based functionality. Our approach attains interactive rendering framerates; its power and flexibility enables it to serve the needs of the astronomy community. Evaluation on three case studies, as well as feedback from domain experts emphasize the benefits of this visual approach to the observational astronomy field; and its potential benefits to large scale geospatial visualization in general.

Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.

2016-01-01

Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and

Prices need no preferences: social trends determine decisions in experimental markets for pain relief.

PubMed

Vlaev, Ivo; Seymour, Ben; Chater, Nick; Winston, Joel S; Yoshida, Wako; Wright, Nicholas; Symmonds, Mkael; Dolan, Ray

2014-01-01

A standard view in health economics is that, although there is no market that determines the "prices" for health states, people can nonetheless associate health states with monetary values (or other scales, such as quality adjusted life year [QALYs] and disability adjusted life year [DALYs]). Such valuations can be used to shape health policy, and a major research challenge is to elicit such values from people; creating experimental "markets" for health states is a theoretically attractive way to address this. We explore the possibility that this framework may be fundamentally flawed-because there may not be any stable values to be revealed. Instead, perhaps people construct ad hoc values, influenced by contextual factors, such as the observed decisions of others. The participants bid to buy relief from equally painful electrical shocks to the leg and arm in an experimental health market based on an interactive second-price auction. Thirty subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental conditions where the bids by "others" were manipulated to follow increasing or decreasing price trends for one, but not the other, pain. After the auction, a preference test asked the participants to choose which pain they prefer to experience for a longer duration. Players remained indifferent between the two pain-types throughout the auction. However, their bids were differentially attracted toward what others bid for each pain, with overbidding during decreasing prices and underbidding during increasing prices. Health preferences are dissociated from market prices, which are strongly referenced to others' choices. This suggests that the price of health care in a free-market has the capacity to become critically detached from people's underlying preferences. 2014 APA, all rights reserved

Ion beam nanopatterning of III-V semiconductors: Consistency of experimental and simulation trends within a chemistry-driven theory

DOE PAGES

El-Atwani, O.; Norris, S. A.; Ludwig, K.; ...

2015-12-16

In this study, several proposed mechanisms and theoretical models exist concerning nanostructure evolution on III-V semiconductors (particularly GaSb) via ion beam irradiation. However, making quantitative contact between experiment on the one hand and model-parameter dependent predictions from different theories on the other is usually difficult. In this study, we take a different approach and provide an experimental investigation with a range of targets (GaSb, GaAs, GaP) and ion species (Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe) to determine new parametric trends regarding nanostructure evolution. Concurrently, atomistic simulations using binary collision approximation over the same ion/target combinations were performed to determine parametric trends onmore » several quantities related to existing model. A comparison of experimental and numerical trends reveals that the two are broadly consistent under the assumption that instabilities are driven by chemical instability based on phase separation. Furthermore, the atomistic simulations and a survey of material thermodynamic properties suggest that a plausible microscopic mechanism for this process is an ion-enhanced mobility associated with energy deposition by collision cascades.« less

Detecting potential anomalies in projections of rainfall trends and patterns using human observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohfeld, K. E.; Savo, V.; Sillmann, J.; Morton, C.; Lepofsky, D.

2016-12-01

Shifting precipitation patterns are a well-documented consequence of climate change, but their spatial variability is particularly difficult to assess. While the accuracy of global models has increased, specific regional changes in precipitation regimes are not well captured by these models. Typically, researchers who wish to detect trends and patterns in climatic variables, such as precipitation, use instrumental observations. In our study, we combined observations of rainfall by subsistence-oriented communities with several metrics of rainfall estimated from global instrumental records for comparable time periods (1955 - 2005). This comparison was aimed at identifying: 1) which rainfall metrics best match human observations of changes in precipitation; 2) areas where local communities observe changes not detected by global models. The collated observations ( 3800) made by subsistence-oriented communities covered 129 countries ( 1830 localities). For comparable time periods, we saw a substantial correspondence between instrumental records and human observations (66-77%) at the same locations, regardless of whether we considered trends in general rainfall, drought, or extreme rainfall. We observed a clustering of mismatches in two specific regions, possibly indicating some climatic phenomena not completely captured by the currently available global models. Many human observations also indicated an increased unpredictability in the start, end, duration, and continuity of the rainy seasons, all of which may hamper the performance of subsistence activities. We suggest that future instrumental metrics should capture this unpredictability of rainfall. This information would be important for thousands of subsistence-oriented communities in planning, coping, and adapting to climate change.

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

PubMed

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A Comparison of Observed and Simulated 1990 – 2010 U.S. Ozone Trends

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, we analyze ozone concentrations from long-term (1990 – 2010) WRF-CMAQ simulations driven by year specific meteorology and emissions. These simulations allow us to compare observed and simulated ozone trends in order to evaluate the model’s ability to pr...

Observed Trend in Surface Wind Speed Over the Conterminous USA and CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

There has been no spatial surface wind map even over the conterminous USA due to the difficulty of spatial interpolation of wind field. As a result, the reanalysis data were often used to analyze the statistics of spatial pattern in surface wind speed. Unfortunately, no consistent trend in wind field was found among the available reanalysis data, and that obstructed the further analysis or projection of spatial pattern of wind speed. In this study, we developed the methodology to interpolate the observed wind speed data at weather stations using random forest algorithm. We produced the 1-km daily climate variables over the conterminous USA from 1979 to 2015. The validation using Ameriflux daily data showed that R2 is 0.59. Existing studies have found the negative trend over the Eastern US, and our study also showed same results. However, our new datasets also revealed the significant increasing trend over the southwest US especially from April to June. The trend in the southwestern US represented change or seasonal shift in North American Monsoon. Global analysis of CMIP5 data projected the decrease trend in mid-latitude, while increase trend in tropical region over the land. Most likely because of the low resolution in GCM, CMIP5 data failed to simulate the increase trend in the southwest US, even though it was qualitatively predicted that pole ward shift of anticyclone help the North American Monsoon.

Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.

PubMed

Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron

2016-03-01

Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.

Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alory, Gaël; Wijffels, Susan; Meyers, Gary

2007-01-01

The linear trends in oceanic temperature from 1960 to 1999 are estimated using the new Indian Ocean Thermal Archive (IOTA), a compilation of historical temperature profiles. Widespread surface warming is found, as in other data sets, and reproduced in IPCC climate model simulations for the 20th century. This warming is particularly large in the subtropics, and extends down to 800 m around 40-50°S. Models suggest the deep-reaching subtropical warming is related to a 0.5° southward shift of the subtropical gyre driven by a strengthening of the westerly winds, and associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode index. In the tropics, IOTA shows a subsurface cooling corresponding to a shoaling of the thermocline and increasing vertical stratification. Most models suggest this trend in the tropical Indian thermocline is likely associated with the observed weakening of the Pacific trade winds and transmitted to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian throughflow.

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego

2018-02-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

Experimental Observation of Dark Solitons on Water Surface

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-13

Experimental observation of dark solitons on water surface A. Chabchoub1,∗, O. Kimmoun2, H. Branger3, N. Hoffmann1, D. Proment4, M. Onorato4,5, and N...The shape and width of the soliton depend on the water depth, carrier frequency and the amplitude of the background wave. The experimental data...partic- ular, the governing equation describing the dynamics of weakly nonlinear and quasi -monochromatic waves prop- agating on the surface of water with

Observations of resistance through minimum inhibitory concentrations trends for respiratory specimens of commonly isolated organisms.

PubMed

Gillard, Christopher J; Al-Dahir, Sara; Brakta, Fatima

2016-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) trends among common bacterial organisms found in respiratory isolates in the trauma intensive care unit setting. In this retrospective observational study, MIC data was reviewed over a three year period from January 2009 to December 2011 for the three most frequently identified organisms isolated from respiratory specimens in a trauma intensive care unit along with corresponding hospital data. The most frequently isolated bacterial species identified were Staphylococcus aureus (229 isolates), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (129 isolates), and Acinetobacter species (87 isolates) in the analysis within our institution from 2009-2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for the analyzed organisms. For Pseudomonas isolates, observed sensitivities were as high as 100% for antibiotics ciprofloxacin and imipenem in 2009, but decreased over the next two years in 2010 and 2011. There was considerable variability among the MIC trends for Acinetobacter over the three year period for the antibiotics tested. The MIC data for most Staphylococcus aureus isolates over the three years were sensitive to vancomycin with little change in the observed MIC data. The data reported is observational and indicates the need for future studies to establish a valid relationship of the MIC data over time in our institution particularly among our gram negative organisms, to monitor patterns of antimicrobial resistance. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental Observation of Bohr's Nonlinear Fluidic Surface Oscillation.

PubMed

Moon, Songky; Shin, Younghoon; Kwak, Hojeong; Yang, Juhee; Lee, Sang-Bum; Kim, Soyun; An, Kyungwon

2016-01-25

Niels Bohr in the early stage of his career developed a nonlinear theory of fluidic surface oscillation in order to study surface tension of liquids. His theory includes the nonlinear interaction between multipolar surface oscillation modes, surpassing the linear theory of Rayleigh and Lamb. It predicts a specific normalized magnitude of 0.416η(2) for an octapolar component, nonlinearly induced by a quadrupolar one with a magnitude of η much less than unity. No experimental confirmation on this prediction has been reported. Nonetheless, accurate determination of multipolar components is important as in optical fiber spinning, film blowing and recently in optofluidic microcavities for ray and wave chaos studies and photonics applications. Here, we report experimental verification of his theory. By using optical forward diffraction, we measured the cross-sectional boundary profiles at extreme positions of a surface-oscillating liquid column ejected from a deformed microscopic orifice. We obtained a coefficient of 0.42 ± 0.08 consistently under various experimental conditions. We also measured the resonance mode spectrum of a two-dimensional cavity formed by the cross-sectional segment of the liquid jet. The observed spectra agree well with wave calculations assuming a coefficient of 0.414 ± 0.011. Our measurements establish the first experimental observation of Bohr's hydrodynamic theory.

Status and trends monitoring of riparian and aquatic habitat in the Olympic Experimental State Forest: Monitoring protocols

Treesearch

Teodora Minkova; Alex D. Foster

2017-01-01

Presented here are the monitoring protocols for the Status and Trends Monitoring of Riparian and Aquatic Habitats project in the Olympic Experimental State Forest (OESF). The procedures yield the empirical data needed to address key uncertainties regarding the integration of timber production and habitat conservation across landscapes and assess progress toward...

Vibrational spectra and ab initio analysis of tert-butyl, trimethylsilyl, and trimethylgermyl derivatives of 3,3-dimethylcyclopropene . VI: Application of observed trends to stannyl derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panchenko, Yu. N.; De Maré, G. R.; Abramenkov, A. V.; Baird, M. S.; Tverezovsky, V. V.; Nizovtsev, A. V.; Bolesov, I. G.

2004-09-01

The effects of substitution of X=C by Si or Ge in X(CH 3) 3 moieties attached to the formal double bond of 3,3-dimethylcyclopropene are examined. Regularities in observed trends of vibrational frequencies implicating the moieties containing the X atom, as the X atomic mass is increased, are extrapolated to X=Sn. The results of this extrapolation made it possible to assign the known experimental vibrational frequencies of 3,3-dimethyl-1-(trimethylstannyl)cyclopropene and 3,3-dimethyl-1,2-bis(trimethylstannyl)cyclopropene.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Recovery from chronic and snowmelt acidification: Long-term trends in stream and soil water chemistry at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuss, Colin B.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.

2015-11-01

Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984-2011) and stream water (1982-2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA. We found slowed losses of base cations from soil and decreased mobilization of dissolved inorganic aluminum. Stream water pH at the watershed outlet increased at a rate of 0.01 units yr-1, and the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) gained 0.88 µeq L-1 yr-1. Dissolved organic carbon generally decreased in stream water and soil solutions, contrary to trends observed at many North American and European sites. We compared whole-year hydrochemical trends with those during snowmelt, which is the highest-flow and lowest ANC period of the year, indicative of episodic acidification. Stream water during snowmelt had long-term trends of increasing ANC and pH at a rate very similar to the whole-year record, with closely related steady decreases in sulfate. A more rapid decline in stream water nitrate during snowmelt compared with the whole-year trend may be due, in part, to the marked decrease in atmospheric nitrate deposition during the last decade. The similarity between the whole-year trends and those of the snowmelt period is an important finding that demonstrates a consistency between recovery from chronic acidification during base flow and abatement of snowmelt acidification.

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Loyola, Diego

2018-01-01

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Current trends in Natural Gas Flaring Observed from Space with VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhizhin, M. N.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.

2017-12-01

The five-year survey of natural gas flaring in 2012-2016 has been completed with nighttime Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. The survey identifies flaring site locations, annual duty cycle, and provides an estimate of the flared gas volumes in methane equivalents. VIIRS is particularly well-.suited for detecting and measuring the radiant emissions from gas flares through the collection of shortwave and near-infrared data at night, recording the peak radiant emissions from flares. The total flared gas volume is estimated at 140 +/-30 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year, corresponding to 3.5% of global natural gas production. While Russia leads in terms of flared gas volume (>20 BCM), the U.S. has the largest number of flares (8,199 of 19,057 worldwide). The two countries have opposite trends in flaring: while for the U.S. the peak was reached in 2015, for Russia it was the minimum. On the regional scale in the U.S., Texas has the maximum number of flares (3749), with North Dakota, the second highest, having one half of this number (2,003). The number of flares for most of the states has decreased in the last 3 years following the trend in oil prices. The presentation will compare the global estimates, and regional trends observed in the U.S. regions. Preliminary estimates for global gas flaring in 2017 will be presented

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor

2018-03-01

ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

Natural and Anthropogenic Aerosol Trends from Satellite and Surface Observations and Model Simulations over the North Atlantic Ocean from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jongeward, Andrew R.; Li, Zhanqing; He, Hao; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2016-01-01

Aerosols contribute to Earths radiative budget both directly and indirectly, and large uncertainties remain in quantifying aerosol effects on climate. Variability in aerosol distribution and properties, as might result from changing emissions and transport processes, must be characterized. In this study, variations in aerosol loading across the eastern seaboard of theUnited States and theNorthAtlanticOcean during 2002 to 2012 are analyzed to examine the impacts of anthropogenic emission control measures using monthly mean data from MODIS, AERONET, and IMPROVE observations and Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model simulation.MODIS observes a statistically significant negative trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the midlatitudes (-0.030 decade(sup-1)). Correlation analyses with surface AOD from AERONET sites in the upwind region combined with trend analysis from GOCART component AOD confirm that the observed decrease in the midlatitudes is chiefly associated with anthropogenic aerosols that exhibit significant negative trends from the eastern U.S. coast extending over the western North Atlantic. Additional analysis of IMPROVE surface PM(sub 2.5) observations demonstrates statistically significant negative trends in the anthropogenic components with decreasing mass concentrations over the eastern United States. Finally, a seasonal analysis of observational datasets is performed. The negative trend seen by MODIS is strongest during spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) months. This is supported by AERONET seasonal trends and is identified from IMPROVE seasonal trends as resulting from ammonium sulfate decreases during these seasons.

Trends in Condom Use and Risk Behaviours after Sexual Exposure to HIV: A Seven-Year Observational Study

PubMed Central

Casalino, Enrique; Choquet, Christophe; Leleu, Agathe; Hellmann, Romain; Wargon, Mathias; Juillien, Gaelle; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Bouvet, Elisabeth

2014-01-01

Objective We aimed to determine the trends in numbers and percentages of sexually exposed persons to HIV (SE) consulting an ED for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), as well as predictors of condom use. Study Design We conducted a prospective-observational study. Methods We included all SE attendances in our Emergency Department (ED) during a seven-year study-period (2006–2012). Trends were analyzed using time-series analysis. Logistic Regression was used to define indicators of condom use. Results We enrolled 1851 SE: 45.7% reported intercourse without condom-use and 12.2% with an HIV-infected partner. Significant (p<0.01) rising trends were observed in the overall number of SE visits (+75%), notably among men having sex with men (MSM) (+126%). There were rising trends in the number and percentage of those reporting intercourse without condom-use in the entire population +91% (p<0.001) and +1% (p>0.05), in MSM +228% (p<0.001) and +49% (p<0.001), in Heterosexuals +68% (p<0.001) and +10% (p = 0.08). Among MSM, significant rising trends were found in those reporting high-risk behaviours: anal receptive (+450% and +76%) and anal insertive (+l33% and +70%) intercourses. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, heterosexuals, vaginal intercourse, visit during the night-shift and short time delay between SE and ED visit, were significantly associated with condom-use. Conclusion We report an increasing trend in the number of SE, mainly among MSM, and rising trends in high-risk behaviours and unprotected sexual intercourses among MSM. Our results indicate that SE should be considered as a high-risk population for HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:25157477

Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993-2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Paniagua, Iván Y.; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

2017-07-01

Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O3 and odd oxygen (O3 + NO2) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in Ox (AVd) are used as a proxy for net O3 production, which is influenced by the NO2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AVd are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AVd values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0.33 ppb yr-1. Overall, from 1993 to 2014, within the MMA, O3 has increased at an average rate of 0.22 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 01), which is in marked contrast with the decline of 1.15 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 001) observed in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) for the same period. No clear trend is observed from 1996 to 2014 within the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA).

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

The Relative Importance of Random Error and Observation Frequency in Detecting Trends in Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-01-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

The relative importance of random error and observation frequency in detecting trends in upper tropospheric water vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whiteman, David N.; Vermeesch, Kevin C.; Oman, Luke D.; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.

2011-11-01

Recent published work assessed the amount of time to detect trends in atmospheric water vapor over the coming century. We address the same question and conclude that under the most optimistic scenarios and assuming perfect data (i.e., observations with no measurement uncertainty) the time to detect trends will be at least 12 years at approximately 200 hPa in the upper troposphere. Our times to detect trends are therefore shorter than those recently reported and this difference is affected by data sources used, method of processing the data, geographic location and pressure level in the atmosphere where the analyses were performed. We then consider the question of how instrumental uncertainty plays into the assessment of time to detect trends. We conclude that due to the high natural variability in atmospheric water vapor, the amount of time to detect trends in the upper troposphere is relatively insensitive to instrumental random uncertainty and that it is much more important to increase the frequency of measurement than to decrease the random error in the measurement. This is put in the context of international networks such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) that are tasked with developing time series of climate quality water vapor data.

Experimental Observation of Thermal Self-Modulation in OPO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Jiangrui; Wang, Hai; Xie, Changde; Peng, Kunchi

1996-01-01

The thermal self-modulation has been observed experimentally via SHG in OPO. The threshold pump power for the thermal self- modulation is much smaller than that of the nonlinear self-pulsing. The thermal effect prevent from realizing the theoretical prediction for the self-pulsing.

Experimental Trends in Videoprogramming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalba, Kas

A review of experimental activities in educational broadcasting shows that mass television and instructional television, as we think of them today, are likely to constitute two points on a greatly expanded spectrum of television concepts in the future. Television will become much more like the publishing industry, with its mix of pamphlets, art…

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Molnar, G. I.; Iredell, L. F.; Sounder Research Team

2010-12-01

Joel Susskind, Gyula Molnar, and Lena Iredell NASA GSFC Sounder Research Team Abstract This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 - February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Niña in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5°N - 20°S latitude extending eastward from 150°W - 30°E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Niño, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as well as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover

Tropospheric ozone long term trend observed by lidar and ECC ozonesondes at Observatoire de Haute Provence, Southern France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

Experimental Observation of Bohr’s Nonlinear Fluidic Surface Oscillation

PubMed Central

Moon, Songky; Shin, Younghoon; Kwak, Hojeong; Yang, Juhee; Lee, Sang-Bum; Kim, Soyun; An, Kyungwon

2016-01-01

Niels Bohr in the early stage of his career developed a nonlinear theory of fluidic surface oscillation in order to study surface tension of liquids. His theory includes the nonlinear interaction between multipolar surface oscillation modes, surpassing the linear theory of Rayleigh and Lamb. It predicts a specific normalized magnitude of 0.416η2 for an octapolar component, nonlinearly induced by a quadrupolar one with a magnitude of η much less than unity. No experimental confirmation on this prediction has been reported. Nonetheless, accurate determination of multipolar components is important as in optical fiber spinning, film blowing and recently in optofluidic microcavities for ray and wave chaos studies and photonics applications. Here, we report experimental verification of his theory. By using optical forward diffraction, we measured the cross-sectional boundary profiles at extreme positions of a surface-oscillating liquid column ejected from a deformed microscopic orifice. We obtained a coefficient of 0.42 ± 0.08 consistently under various experimental conditions. We also measured the resonance mode spectrum of a two-dimensional cavity formed by the cross-sectional segment of the liquid jet. The observed spectra agree well with wave calculations assuming a coefficient of 0.414 ± 0.011. Our measurements establish the first experimental observation of Bohr’s hydrodynamic theory. PMID:26803911

An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.

2007-12-01

It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.

Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.

2014-12-01

During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due

Intraregional links between the trends in air pollutants observed at the EANET network sites for 2000-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2016-04-01

Recent changes in economic development tendencies and environmental protection policies in the East Asian countries raise hopes for improvement of regional air quality in this vast region populated by more than 3 billion people. To recognize anticipated changes in atmospheric pollutants levels, deposition rates and impact on the environment, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) is regularly operating region-wide since 2000 in 13 countries. The network provides continuous monitoring data on the air quality and precipitation (including gas-phase and particulate chemistry) at 55 monitoring sites, including 20 remote and 14 rural sites. Observation of soil and inland water environments are performed at more than 30 monitoring sites [1]. In this study we focus on 1) the data quality assessment and preparation and 2) analysis of temporal trends of compositions observed at selected 26 non-urban EANET stations. Speciation includes gas-phase (SO2, HNO3, HCl, NH3) and particulate matter (SO42-, NO3-, Cl-, NH4+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) abundances analysed in samples collected using filterpack technique with sampling duration/frequency of one-two weeks. Data quality assessment (distribution test and manual inspection) allowed us to remove/repair random and operator errors. Wrong sample timing was found for 0.37% (severe) and 34% (mild inconsistency) of the total of 7630 samples regarded. Erroneous data flagging (e.g. missing or below the detection limit) was repaired for 9.3%, respectively. Some 1.8% of severely affected data were corrected (where possible) or removed. Thus refined 15-year dataset is made available for the scientific community. For convenience, we also provide data in netCDF format (per station or in an assembly). Based on this refined dataset, we performed trend analysis using several statistical approaches including quantile regression which provides robust results against outliers and better understanding of trend

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comiso, Josefino C.; Hall, Dorothy K.

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be approx. 0.60+/-0.07 C/decade in the Arctic (>64degN) compared to approx. 0.17 C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of approx. 3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of approx.11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of approx. 34.0Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of approx. 215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented.

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison

2016-01-01

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zittis, G.

2017-11-01

The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

The relationship between experimental geometry, heat rate, and ultrasound wave speed measurement while observing phase changes in highly attenuative materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah L.; Jack, David A.

2018-04-01

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors' previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile is presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. The trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.

The Relationship Between Experimental Geometry Heat Rate and Ultrasound Wave Speed Measurement While Observing Phase Changes in Highly Attenuative Materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah Louise; Jack, David A.

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors’ previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile ismore » presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. Lastly, the trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.« less

The Relationship Between Experimental Geometry Heat Rate and Ultrasound Wave Speed Measurement While Observing Phase Changes in Highly Attenuative Materials

DOE PAGES

Moore, David G.; Stair, Sarah Louise; Jack, David A.

2018-04-01

Ultrasound techniques are capable of monitoring changes in the time-of-flight as a material is exposed to different thermal environments. The focus of the present study is to identify the phase of a material via ultrasound compression wave measurements in a through transmission experimental setup as the material is heated from a solid to a liquid and then allowed to re-solidify. The present work seeks to expand upon the authors’ previous research, which proved this through transmission phase monitoring technique was possible, by considering different experimental geometries. The relationship between geometry, the measured speed of sound, and the temperature profile ismore » presented. The use of different volumes helps in establishing a baseline understanding of which aspects of the experiment are geometry dependent and which are independent. The present study also investigates the relationship between the heating rate observed in the experiment and the measured speed of sound. Lastly, the trends identified between the experimental geometry, heat rate and ultrasound wave speed measurement assist in providing a baseline understanding of the applicability of this technique to various industries, including the polymer industry and the oil industry.« less

Satellite Observations of NO2 Trend over Romania

PubMed Central

Voiculescu, Mirela; Georgescu, Lucian

2013-01-01

Satellite-based measurements of atmospheric trace gases loading give a realistic image of atmospheric pollution at global, regional, and urban level. The aim of this paper is to investigate the trend of atmospheric NO2 content over Romania for the period 1996–2010 for several regions which are generally characterized by different pollutant loadings, resulting from GOME-1, SCIAMACHY, OMI, and GOME-2 instruments. Satellite results are then compared with ground-based in situ measurements made in industrial and relatively clean areas of one major city in Romania. This twofold approach will help in estimating whether the trend of NO2 obtained by means of data satellite retrievals can be connected with the evolution of national industry and transportation. PMID:24453819

Experimental Observations and Theoretical Modeling of VLF Scattering During LEP Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, M. F.; Moore, R. C.

2012-12-01

Recent experimental observations of very low frequency (VLF) scattering during lightning-induced election precipitation (LEP) events are presented. A spread spectrum analysis technique is applied to these observations, demonstrating a significant dependence on frequency. For LEP events, the scattered field amplitude and phase both exhibit strong frequency dependence, as do the event onset delays (relative to the causative lightning flash) and the event onset durations. The experimental observations are compared with the predictions of an Earth-ionosphere waveguide propagation and scattering model. The Long-Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) code is used to demonstrate that the scattered field amplitude and phase depend sensitively on the electrical properties of the scattering body and the ionosphere between the scatterer and the receiver. The observed frequency-dependent onset times and durations, on the other hand, are attributed to the scattering source characteristics. These measurements can also be used to study radiation belt dynamics.

Experimental observation of Lorenz chaos in the Quincke rotor dynamics.

PubMed

Peters, François; Lobry, Laurent; Lemaire, Elisabeth

2005-03-01

In this paper, we report experimental evidence of Lorenz chaos for the Quincke rotor dynamics. We study the angular motion of an insulating cylinder immersed in slightly conducting oil and submitted to a direct current electric field. The simple equations which describe the dynamics of the rotor are shown to be equivalent to the Lorenz equations. In particular, we observe two bifurcations in our experimental system. Above a critical value of the electric field, the cylinder rotates at a constant rate. At a second bifurcation, the system becomes chaotic. The characteristic shape of the experimental first return map provides strong evidence for Lorenz-type chaos.

Experimental observation of Lorenz chaos in the Quincke rotor dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, François; Lobry, Laurent; Lemaire, Elisabeth

2005-03-01

In this paper, we report experimental evidence of Lorenz chaos for the Quincke rotor dynamics. We study the angular motion of an insulating cylinder immersed in slightly conducting oil and submitted to a direct current electric field. The simple equations which describe the dynamics of the rotor are shown to be equivalent to the Lorenz equations. In particular, we observe two bifurcations in our experimental system. Above a critical value of the electric field, the cylinder rotates at a constant rate. At a second bifurcation, the system becomes chaotic. The characteristic shape of the experimental first return map provides strong evidence for Lorenz-type chaos.

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Assessment of atmospheric acidified pollutants trends observed by EANET in North-East Asia in the first decade of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

2015-04-01

Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial

Gypsum crystals observed in experimental and natural sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geilfus, N.-X.; Galley, R. J.; Cooper, M.; Halden, N.; Hare, A.; Wang, F.; Søgaard, D. H.; Rysgaard, S.

2013-12-01

gypsum has been predicted to precipitate in sea ice, it has never been observed. Here we provide the first report on gypsum precipitation in both experimental and natural sea ice. Crystals were identified by X-ray diffraction analysis. Based on their apparent distinguishing characteristics, the gypsum crystals were identified as being authigenic. The FREeZing CHEMistry (FREZCHEM) model results support our observations of both gypsum and ikaite precipitation at typical in situ sea ice temperatures and confirms the "Gitterman pathway" where gypsum is predicted to precipitate. The occurrence of authigenic gypsum in sea ice during its formation represents a new observation of precipitate formation and potential marine deposition in polar seas.

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

DOE PAGES

Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; ...

2016-02-03

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scalemore » patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2016-2017

DOE Data Explorer

Richardson, Andrew D.; Latimer, John M.; Nettles, W. Robert; Heiderman, Ryan R.; Warren, Jeffrey M.; Hanson, Paul J.

2018-01-01

This data set consists of phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during the 2+ years (August 2015 through December 2017) of whole-ecosystem warming. For 2016, only springtime (April - June) phenological events are included. For 2017 (April - December), spring and autumn events are included.

Beginning in April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers. The observed date reported here is the first survey date on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed.

An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

2017-07-01

A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

Examining Long-Term Trends in Mobile Source Related Pollutants through Analysis of Emissions, Observations and Model Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space

PubMed Central

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-01-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by −2.12%/decade for the period 1967–2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002–2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277 PMID:25810765

Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space.

PubMed

Comiso, Josefino C; Hall, Dorothy K

2014-05-01

The Arctic is a region in transformation. Warming in the region has been amplified, as expected from ice-albedo feedback effects, with the rate of warming observed to be ∼0.60 ± 0.07°C/decade in the Arctic (>64°N) compared to ∼0.17°C/decade globally during the last three decades. This increase in surface temperature is manifested in all components of the cryosphere. In particular, the sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ∼3.8%/decade, whereas the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ∼11.5%/decade. Spring snow cover has also been observed to be declining by -2.12%/decade for the period 1967-2012. The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ∼34.0 Gt/year (sea level equivalence of 0.09 mm/year) during the period from 1992 to 2011, but for the period 2002-2011, a higher rate of mass loss of ∼215 Gt/year has been observed. Also, the mass of glaciers worldwide declined at the rate of 226 Gt/year from 1971 to 2009 and 275 Gt/year from 1993 to 2009. Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally frozen ground has also been reported. To gain insight into these changes, comparative analysis with trends in clouds, albedo, and the Arctic Oscillation is also presented. How to cite this article: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:389�409. doi: 10.1002/wcc.277.

Personal Reflections on Observational and Experimental Research Approaches to Childhood Psychopathology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapoport, Judith L.

2009-01-01

The past 50 years have seen dramatic changes in childhood psychopathology research. The goal of this overview is to contrast observational and experimental research approaches; both have grown more complex such that the boundary between these approaches may be blurred. Both are essential. Landmark observational studies with long-term follow-up…

NASA trend analysis procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing.

PubMed

Kunz, A; Müller, R; Homonnai, V; Jánosi, I M; Hurst, D; Rap, A; Forster, P M; Rohrer, F; Spelten, N; Riese, M

2013-10-16

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N, 105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TP z > 14 km), extratropical (TP z < 12 km), and transitional air mass types (12 km < TP z < 14 km) reveal three different water vapor reservoirs. The analysis based on these concepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Regional trend analysis of surface ozone observations from monitoring networks in eastern North America, Europe and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, K. L.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Cooper, O. R.; Schultz, M.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Surface ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. The Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) is designed to provide the research community with an up-to-date observation-based overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. The TOAR Surface Ozone Database contains ozone metrics at thousands of monitoring sites around the world, densely clustered across mid-latitude North America, western Europe and East Asia. Calculating regional ozone trends across these locations is challenging due to the uneven spacing of the monitoring sites across urban and rural areas. To meet this challenge we conducted a spatial and temporal trend analysis of several TOAR ozone metrics across these three regions for summertime (April-September) 2000-2014, using the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our analysis indicates that East Asia has the greatest human and plant exposure to ozone pollution among investigating regions, with increasing ozone levels through 2014. The results also show that ozone mixing ratios continue to decline significantly over eastern North America and Europe, however, there is less evidence for decreases of daytime average ozone at urban sites. The present-day spatial coverage of ozone monitors in East Asia (South Korea and Japan) and eastern North America is adequate for estimating regional trends by simply taking the average of the individual trends at each site. However the European network is more sparsely populated across its northern and eastern regions and therefore a simple average of the individual trends at each site does not yield an accurate regional trend. This analysis demonstrates that the GAMM technique can be used to assess the regional representativeness of existing monitoring networks, indicating those networks for which a regional trend can be obtained by simply averaging the trends of all individual sites and those networks that require a more

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Romanov, Peter

2011-01-01

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Observations of Europe wide Trends in background and peak O3, CO and NO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; Monks, P. S.; Brunsdon, C.; Henne, S.; Buchmann, B.; Konovalov, I.; Beekman, M.

2009-04-01

The GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and MONitoring) project has produced a harmonised data set of trace gases from various ground-based measurement stations. These stations belong to a variety of regional, national and European air quality networks (e.g. EMEP, GAW). Investigations into instrumental calibration and data quality have been carried out in order to make comparison between the sites as accurate as possible for a long time-scale trend analysis. Ozone seasonal cycles at the various sites have been compared, showing characteristic cycles according to latitude, elevation, vicinity to coastal areas and pollution sources and population nearby. A de-trending of this seasonal cycle revealed long-term variations in ozone and a considerable difference between background and peak ozone trends between sites. National, European and international legislation has aimed at reducing CO and NO2 and correspondingly, reduce O3 levels over the last 20 years but the trends are not as clear cut and reveal that there is not a homogeneous reduction in these species across Europe. Splitting the data into seasonal periods and also into lower and upper concentration percentiles shows us more clearly how the species vary across Europe. There is a tendency for peak ozone levels to decrease, whilst the background levels have mostly increased. Averages, lower and upper percentiles of these species at the GEOMON stations are shown on European maps and the distribution of annual ozone trends is evaluated. Comparisons with models that estimate the lower and upper percentiles of ozone during summer overestimate ozone levels but not uniformly across Europe.

Assessing the Controversy between Altimetry, Radiometry, and Scatterometry: Satellite Observation Requirements for Trends in Extreme Winds and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, J.; Bourassa, M. A.

2014-12-01

A recent study (Young et al. 2011) investigated recent global trends in mean and extreme (90th- and 99th-percentile) wind speed and wave height. Wentz and Ricciardulli (2011) have criticized the study, citing the methodology solely employing data collected from a series of altimetry missions and lack of adequate verification of the results. An earlier study (Wentz et al. 2007) had differing results using data from microwave radiometers and scatterometers. This study serves as a response to these studies, employing a similar methodology but with a different set of data. Data collected from the QuikSCAT and ADEOS-2 SeaWinds scatterometers, SSMI(S), and TOPEX/POSEIDON and JASON-1 altimetry missions are used to calculate trends in the mean, 90th-, and 99th-percentile wind speed and wave height over the period 1999—2009. Linear regression analyses from the satellite missions are verified against regression analyses of data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Temporal sampling presents the most critical consideration in the study. The scatterometers have a much greater independent temporal sampling (about 1.5 observations per day per satellite) than the altimeters (about 1 observation per 10 days). With this consideration, the satellite data are also used to sample the wind speeds in the ERA-Interim dataset. That portion of the study indicates the sampling requirements needed to accurately estimate the trends in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Wentz, F.J., L. Ricciardulli, K. Hilburn, and C. Mears, 2007: How much more rain will global warming bring? Science, 317, 233-235. Wentz, F.J. and L. Ricciardulli, 2011: Comment on "Global trends in wind speed and wave height." Science, 334, 905. Young, I.R., S. Zieger, and A.V. Babanin, 2011a: Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science, 332, 451-455.

Experimental Apparatus to Observe Dynamical Manifestations of Hamiltonian Monodromy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerem, M. Perry; Salmon, Danial; Delos, John; Aubin, Seth

An experiment to observe a topological change in a classical system with nontrivial monodromy is presented. Monodromy is the study of the topological behavior of a system as it evolves along a closed path. If the system does not return to the initial topological state at the end of the circuit, that system exhibits nontrivial monodromy. Such a topological change has been predicted in certain mechanical systems, but has not yet been observed experimentally. One such system is a family of paths in a cylindrically symmetric champagne-bottle potential, with a classically forbidden region centered at the origin. We constructed this system with a long spherically symmetric pendulum and a permanent magnet attached at the end. Magnetic fields from coils are used to create the potential barrier and the external forces to drive the pendulum about a monodromy circuit. A loop of initial conditions, that is initially on one side of the forbidden region, is driven smoothly about this circuit such that it continuously evolves into a loop that surrounds the forbidden region. We will display this phenomena through numerical simulations and hopefully experimental measurement.

Meteorologically-adjusted trend analysis of surface observed ozone at three monitoring sites in Delhi, India: 2007-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.

2012-12-01

It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.

Experimental Demonstration of Observability and Operability of Robustness of Coherence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Wenqiang; Ma, Zhihao; Wang, Hengyan; Fei, Shao-Ming; Peng, Xinhua

2018-06-01

Quantum coherence is an invaluable physical resource for various quantum technologies. As a bona fide measure in quantifying coherence, the robustness of coherence (ROC) is not only mathematically rigorous, but also physically meaningful. We experimentally demonstrate the witness-observable and operational feature of the ROC in a multiqubit nuclear magnetic resonance system. We realize witness measurements by detecting the populations of quantum systems in one trial. The approach may also apply to physical systems compatible with ensemble or nondemolition measurements. Moreover, we experimentally show that the ROC quantifies the advantage enabled by a quantum state in a phase discrimination task.

Advancements in medium and high resolution Earth observation for land-surface imaging: Evolutions, future trends and contributions to sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouma, Yashon O.

2016-01-01

Technologies for imaging the surface of the Earth, through satellite based Earth observations (EO) have enormously evolved over the past 50 years. The trends are likely to evolve further as the user community increases and their awareness and demands for EO data also increases. In this review paper, a development trend on EO imaging systems is presented with the objective of deriving the evolving patterns for the EO user community. From the review and analysis of medium-to-high resolution EO-based land-surface sensor missions, it is observed that there is a predictive pattern in the EO evolution trends such that every 10-15 years, more sophisticated EO imaging systems with application specific capabilities are seen to emerge. Such new systems, as determined in this review, are likely to comprise of agile and small payload-mass EO land surface imaging satellites with the ability for high velocity data transmission and huge volumes of spatial, spectral, temporal and radiometric resolution data. This availability of data will magnify the phenomenon of ;Big Data; in Earth observation. Because of the ;Big Data; issue, new computing and processing platforms such as telegeoprocessing and grid-computing are expected to be incorporated in EO data processing and distribution networks. In general, it is observed that the demand for EO is growing exponentially as the application and cost-benefits are being recognized in support of resource management.

Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2016-04-01

Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

A Simplified Experimental System for Observing Pollen Tube Growth in Styles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Motten, Alexander F.

1992-01-01

Describes an experimental system that allows students to observe pollen tubes in vitro and to investigate a variety of aspects of pollen tube-style interactions. One interaction provides an example of postmating reproductive isolation. (MDH)

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

A century of meteorological observations at Fort Valley Experimental Forest: A cooperative observer program success story

Treesearch

Daniel P. Huebner; Susan D. Olberding; Byron Peterson; Dino DeSimone

2008-01-01

Meteorological observations at Fort Valley Experimental Forest began with its establishment as early silvicultural research made heavy use of meteorological data. The Fort Valley weather data represent the longest climatological record for northern Arizona with records dating back to 1909. Importance of long-term meteorological records and access to the weather record...

An Overview of OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS), a SPARC Emerging Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Manney, G. L.; Hoor, P. M.; Bourassa, A. E.; Braathen, G.; Chang, K. L.; Hegglin, M. I.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, Z. D.; Leblanc, T.; Livesey, N. J.; Millan Valle, L. F.; Stiller, G. P.; Tegtmeier, S.; Thouret, V.; Voigt, C.; Walker, K. A.

2017-12-01

The distribution of tracers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) shows large spatial and temporal variability because of interactions of transport, chemical, and mixing processes near the tropopause, as well as variations in the location of the tropopause itself. This strongly affects quantitative estimates of the impact of radiatively active substances, including ozone and water vapour, on surface temperatures, and complicates diagnosis of dynamical processes such as stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE). The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) emerging activity OCTAV-UTLS (Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS) aims to reduce the uncertainties in trend estimates by accounting for these dynamically induced sources of variability. Achieving these goals by using existing UTLS trace gas observations from aircraft, ground-based, balloon and satellite platforms requires a consistent analysis of these different data with respect to the tropopause or the jets. As a central task for OCTAV-UTLS, we are developing and applying common metrics, calculated using the same reanalysis datasets, to compare UTLS data using geophysically-based coordinate systems including tropopause and upper tropospheric jet relative coordinates. In addition to assessing present day measurement capabilities, OCTAV-UTLS will assess gaps in current geographical / temporal sampling of the UTLS that limit our ability to determine atmospheric composition variability and trends. This talk will provide an overview of the OCTAV-UTLS activity and some examples of initial calculations of geophysically-based coordinates and comparisons of remapped data.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

PubMed

Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2014-03-11

Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Methods Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004–2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Results Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Conclusion Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions. PMID:24612770

Trend Damping: Under-Adjustment, Experimental Artifact, or Adaptation to Features of the Natural Environment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harvey, Nigel; Reimers, Stian

2013-01-01

People's forecasts from time series underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones. This trend damping may occur because (a) people anchor on the last data point and make insufficient adjustment to take the trend into account, (b) they adjust toward the average of the trends they have encountered within the…

Multi-year levels and trends of non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations observed in ambient air in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine

2016-09-01

Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.

Trends in stratospheric NO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2009-04-01

Data of spectrometric ground-based measurements of stratospheric column NO2 contents at stations within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) are analyzed for linear trends. The trend analysis takes into account the NO2 seasonal variation, effects of the 11-year solar and geomagnetic activity cycles, effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation and the El Nino - Southern Oscillation, and the effects of the El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions. The latitudinal distributions of the annual and seasonal trends in NO2 have been obtained. The annual trends are mostly positive in the southern hemisphere middle and low latitudes and negative in the European sector of the northern hemisphere middle latitudes. In the high and polar latitudes of the two hemispheres, the annual estimates of trends are mostly statistically insignificant. However, a positive NO2 trend is observed at 78°S in the Antarctic, while positive and negative trends are observed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes. The maximum positive and negative trends are about 10% per decade by module. Seasonal estimates of the trends differ generally from the annual estimates. At stations of Zvenigorod, Jungfraujoch (northern hemisphere middle latitudes), Lauder, and Macquarie Island (southern hemisphere middle latitudes) the signs of the NO2 trends do not depend on season, although the trend values vary with season. At other stations, trend values, their statistical significance, and even their signs can vary with season. Nitrogen oxides affects the photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone directly and indirectly, influencing the effectiveness of ozone destruction in the chlorine cycle. The observed significant trends in stratospheric NO2 should result in noticeable perturbations of the rates of ozone destruction in the nitrogen cycle. The sensitivities of photochemical balance of stratospheric ozone to long-term changes in stratospheric NO2 and chlorine are estimated using a

A comprehensive study on rotation reversal in KSTAR: experimental observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Na, D. H.; Na, Yong-Su; Angioni, C.; Yang, S. M.; Kwon, J. M.; Jhang, Hogun; Camenen, Y.; Lee, S. G.; Shi, Y. J.; Ko, W. H.; Lee, J. A.; Hahm, T. S.; KSTAR Team

2017-12-01

Dedicated experiments have been performed in KSTAR Ohmic plasmas to investigate the detailed physics of the rotation reversal phenomena. Here we adapt the more general definition of rotation reversal, a large change of the intrinsic toroidal rotation gradient produced by minor changes in the control parameters (Camenen et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 59 034001), which is commonly observed in KSTAR regardless of the operating conditions. The two main phenomenological features of the rotation reversal are the normalized toroidal rotation gradient ({{u}\\prime} ) change in the gradient region and the existence of an anchor point. For the KSTAR Ohmic plasma database including the experiment results up to the 2016 experimental campaign, both features were investigated. First, the observations show that the locations of the gradient and the anchor point region are dependent on {{q}95} . Second, a strong dependence of {{u}\\prime} on {νeff} is clearly observed in the gradient region, whereas the dependence on R/{{L}{{Ti}}} , R/{{L}{{Te}}} , and R/{{L}{{ne}}} is unclear considering the usual variation of the normalized gradient length in KSTAR. The experimental observations were compared against several theoretical models. The rotation reversal might not occur due to the transition of the dominant turbulence from the trapped electron mode to the ion temperature gradient mode or the neoclassical equilibrium effect in KSTAR. Instead, it seems that the profile shearing effects associated with a finite ballooning tilting well reproduce the experimental observations of both the gradient region and the anchor point; the difference seems to be related to the magnetic shear and the q value. Further analysis implies that the increase of {{u}\\prime} in the gradient region with the increase of the collisionality would occur when the reduction of the momentum diffusivity is comparatively larger than the reduction of the residual stress. It is supported by the perturbative

Experimental observation of spatially localized dynamo magnetic fields.

PubMed

Gallet, B; Aumaître, S; Boisson, J; Daviaud, F; Dubrulle, B; Bonnefoy, N; Bourgoin, M; Odier, Ph; Pinton, J-F; Plihon, N; Verhille, G; Fauve, S; Pétrélis, F

2012-04-06

We report the first experimental observation of a spatially localized dynamo magnetic field, a common feature of astrophysical dynamos and convective dynamo simulations. When the two propellers of the von Kármán sodium experiment are driven at frequencies that differ by 15%, the mean magnetic field's energy measured close to the slower disk is nearly 10 times larger than the one close to the faster one. This strong localization of the magnetic field when a symmetry of the forcing is broken is in good agreement with a prediction based on the interaction between a dipolar and a quadrupolar magnetic mode. © 2012 American Physical Society

Experimental observation of four-photon entangled Dicke state with high fidelity.

PubMed

Kiesel, N; Schmid, C; Tóth, G; Solano, E; Weinfurter, H

2007-02-09

We present the experimental observation of the symmetric four-photon entangled Dicke state with two excitations |D_{4};{(2)}. A simple experimental setup allowed quantum state tomography yielding a fidelity as high as 0.844+/-0.008. We study the entanglement persistency of the state using novel witness operators and focus on the demonstration of a remarkable property: depending on the orientation of a measurement on one photon, the remaining three photons are projected into both inequivalent classes of genuine tripartite entanglement, the Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger and W class. Furthermore, we discuss possible applications of |D_{4};{(2)} in quantum communication.

Observations and modeling of air quality trends over 1990-2010 across the Northern Hemisphere: China, the United States and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, J.; Mathur, R.; Pleim, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Gan, C.-M.; Wong, D. C.; Wei, C.; Gilliam, R.; Pouliot, G.

2015-03-01

Trends in air quality across the Northern Hemisphere over a 21-year period (1990-2010) were simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) multiscale chemical transport model driven by meteorology from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations and internally consistent historical emission inventories obtained from EDGAR. Thorough comparison with several ground observation networks mostly over Europe and North America was conducted to evaluate the model performance as well as the ability of CMAQ to reproduce the observed trends in air quality over the past 2 decades in three regions: eastern China, the continental United States and Europe. The model successfully reproduced the observed decreasing trends in SO2, NO2, 8 h O3 maxima, SO42- and elemental carbon (EC) in the US and Europe. However, the model fails to reproduce the decreasing trends in NO3- in the US, potentially pointing to uncertainties of NH3 emissions. The model failed to capture the 6-year trends of SO2 and NO2 in CN-API (China - Air Pollution Index) from 2005 to 2010, but reproduced the observed pattern of O3 trends shown in three World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) sites over eastern Asia. Due to the coarse spatial resolution employed in these calculations, predicted SO2 and NO2 concentrations are underestimated relative to all urban networks, i.e., US-AQS (US - Air Quality System; normalized mean bias (NMB) = -38% and -48%), EU-AIRBASE (European Air quality data Base; NMB = -18 and -54%) and CN-API (NMB = -36 and -68%). Conversely, at the rural network EU-EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme), SO2 is overestimated (NMB from 4 to 150%) while NO2 is simulated well (NMB within ±15%) in all seasons. Correlations between simulated and observed O3 wintertime daily 8 h maxima (DM8) are poor compared to other seasons for all networks. Better correlation between simulated and observed SO42- was found compared to that for SO2. Underestimation of summer SO42- in

Experimental observation of the asymmetric instability of intermediate-reduced-volume vesicles in extensional flow.

PubMed

Dahl, Joanna B; Narsimhan, Vivek; Gouveia, Bernardo; Kumar, Sanjay; Shaqfeh, Eric S G; Muller, Susan J

2016-04-20

Vesicles provide an attractive model system to understand the deformation of living cells in response to mechanical forces. These simple, enclosed lipid bilayer membranes are suitable for complementary theoretical, numerical, and experimental analysis. A recent study [Narsimhan, Spann, Shaqfeh, J. Fluid Mech., 2014, 750, 144] predicted that intermediate-aspect-ratio vesicles extend asymmetrically in extensional flow. Upon infinitesimal perturbation to the vesicle shape, the vesicle stretches into an asymmetric dumbbell with a cylindrical thread separating the two ends. While the symmetric stretching of high-aspect-ratio vesicles in extensional flow has been observed and characterized [Kantsler, Segre, Steinberg, Phys. Rev. Lett., 2008, 101, 048101] as well as recapitulated in numerical simulations by Narsimhan et al., experimental observation of the asymmetric stretching has not been reported. In this work, we present results from microfluidic cross-slot experiments observing this instability, along with careful characterization of the flow field, vesicle shape, and vesicle bending modulus. The onset of this shape transition depends on two non-dimensional parameters: reduced volume (a measure of vesicle asphericity) and capillary number (ratio of viscous to bending forces). We observed that every intermediate-reduced-volume vesicle that extends forms a dumbbell shape that is indeed asymmetric. For the subset of the intermediate-reduced-volume regime we could capture experimentally, we present an experimental phase diagram for asymmetric vesicle stretching that is consistent with the predictions of Narsimhan et al.

Sample size considerations for paired experimental design with incomplete observations of continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Zhu, Hong; Xu, Xiaohan; Ahn, Chul

2017-01-01

Paired experimental design is widely used in clinical and health behavioral studies, where each study unit contributes a pair of observations. Investigators often encounter incomplete observations of paired outcomes in the data collected. Some study units contribute complete pairs of observations, while the others contribute either pre- or post-intervention observations. Statistical inference for paired experimental design with incomplete observations of continuous outcomes has been extensively studied in literature. However, sample size method for such study design is sparsely available. We derive a closed-form sample size formula based on the generalized estimating equation approach by treating the incomplete observations as missing data in a linear model. The proposed method properly accounts for the impact of mixed structure of observed data: a combination of paired and unpaired outcomes. The sample size formula is flexible to accommodate different missing patterns, magnitude of missingness, and correlation parameter values. We demonstrate that under complete observations, the proposed generalized estimating equation sample size estimate is the same as that based on the paired t-test. In the presence of missing data, the proposed method would lead to a more accurate sample size estimate comparing with the crude adjustment. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the generalized estimating equation sample size formula. A real application example is presented for illustration.

Global Trends in Chlorophyll Concentration Observed with the Satellite Ocean Colour Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melin, F.; Vantrepotte, V.; Chuprin, A.; Grant, M.; Jackson, T.; Sathyendranath, S.

2016-08-01

To detect climate change signals in the data records derived from remote sensing of ocean colour, combining data from multiple missions is required, which implies that the existence of inter-mission differences be adequately addressed prior to undertaking trend studies. Trend distributions associated with merged products are compared with those obtained from single-mission data sets in order to evaluate their suitability for climate studies. Merged products originally developed for operational applications such as near-real time distribution (GlobColour) do not appear to be proper climate data records, showing large parts of the ocean with trends significantly different from trends obtained with SeaWiFS, MODIS or MERIS. On the other hand, results obtained from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) data are encouraging, showing a good consistency with single-mission products.

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Experimental evaluation of shark detection rates by aerial observers.

PubMed

Robbins, William D; Peddemors, Victor M; Kennelly, Steven J; Ives, Matthew C

2014-01-01

Aerial surveys are a recognised technique to identify the presence and abundance of marine animals. However, the capability of aerial observers to reliably sight coastal sharks has not been previously assessed, nor have differences in sighting rates between aircraft types been examined. In this study we investigated the ability of observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft to sight 2.5 m artificial shark analogues placed at known depths and positions. Initial tests revealed that the shark analogues could only be detected at shallow depths, averaging only 2.5 m and 2.7 m below the water surface for observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, respectively. We then deployed analogues at shallower depths along a 5 km-long grid, and assessed their sightability to aircraft observers through a series of transects flown within 500 m. Analogues were seen infrequently from all distances, with overall sighting rates of only 12.5% and 17.1% for fixed-wing and helicopter observers, respectively. Although helicopter observers had consistently higher success rates of sighting analogues within 250 m of their flight path, neither aircraft observers sighted more than 9% of analogues deployed over 300 m from their flight paths. Modelling of sighting rates against environmental and experimental variables indicated that observations were affected by distance, aircraft type, sun glare and sea conditions, while the range of water turbidities observed had no effect. We conclude that aerial observers have limited ability to detect the presence of submerged animals such as sharks, particularly when the sharks are deeper than ∼ 2.6 m, or over 300 m distant from the aircraft's flight path, especially during sunny or windy days. The low rates of detections found in this study cast serious doubts on the use of aerial beach patrols as an effective early-warning system to prevent shark attacks.

Experimental Evaluation of Shark Detection Rates by Aerial Observers

PubMed Central

Robbins, William D.; Peddemors, Victor M.; Kennelly, Steven J.; Ives, Matthew C.

2014-01-01

Aerial surveys are a recognised technique to identify the presence and abundance of marine animals. However, the capability of aerial observers to reliably sight coastal sharks has not been previously assessed, nor have differences in sighting rates between aircraft types been examined. In this study we investigated the ability of observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft to sight 2.5 m artificial shark analogues placed at known depths and positions. Initial tests revealed that the shark analogues could only be detected at shallow depths, averaging only 2.5 m and 2.7 m below the water surface for observers in fixed-wing and helicopter aircraft, respectively. We then deployed analogues at shallower depths along a 5 km-long grid, and assessed their sightability to aircraft observers through a series of transects flown within 500 m. Analogues were seen infrequently from all distances, with overall sighting rates of only 12.5% and 17.1% for fixed-wing and helicopter observers, respectively. Although helicopter observers had consistently higher success rates of sighting analogues within 250 m of their flight path, neither aircraft observers sighted more than 9% of analogues deployed over 300 m from their flight paths. Modelling of sighting rates against environmental and experimental variables indicated that observations were affected by distance, aircraft type, sun glare and sea conditions, while the range of water turbidities observed had no effect. We conclude that aerial observers have limited ability to detect the presence of submerged animals such as sharks, particularly when the sharks are deeper than ∼2.6 m, or over 300 m distant from the aircraft's flight path, especially during sunny or windy days. The low rates of detections found in this study cast serious doubts on the use of aerial beach patrols as an effective early-warning system to prevent shark attacks. PMID:24498258

Experimental land observing data system feasibility study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buckley, J. L.; Kraiman, H.

1982-01-01

An end-to-end data system to support a Shuttle-based Multispectral Linear Array (MLA) mission in the mid-1980's was defined. The experimental Land Observing System (ELOS) is discussed. A ground system that exploits extensive assets from the LANDSAT-D Program to effectively meet the objectives of the ELOS Mission was defined. The goal of 10 meter pixel precision, the variety of data acquisition capabilities, and the use of Shuttle are key to the mission requirements, Ground mission management functions are met through the use of GSFC's Multi-Satellite Operations Control Center (MSOCC). The MLA Image Generation Facility (MIGF) combines major hardware elements from the Applications Development Data System (ADDS) facility and LANDSAT Assessment System (LAS) with a special purpose MLA interface unit. LANDSAT-D image processing techniques, adapted to MLA characteristics, form the basis for the use of existing software and the definition of new software required.

Progresses on the Intensive Observation Period of Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Li, Xiaowen; Li, Zengyuan; Ma, Mingguo; Wang, Jian; Liu, Qiang; Xiao, Qing; Chen, Erxue; Che, Tao; Hu, Zeyong

2010-05-01

The Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) is an intensively simultaneous airborne, satellite-borne and ground based remote sensing experiment aiming to improve the observability, understanding, and predictability of hydrological and related ecological processes at catchment scale. It was taken place in the Heihe River Basin, the second largest inland river basin in the arid regions of northwest China. WATER consists of the cold region, forest, and arid region hydrological experiments as well as a hydrometeorology experiment. It was divided into 4 phases, namely, the experiment planning period, pre-observation period, intensive observation period (IOP) and persistent observation period. The field campaigns have been completed, with the IOP lasting from March 7 to April 12, May 15 to July 22, and August 23 to September 5, 2008, in total, 120 days, more than 280 individuals of scientists, engineers, students, and aircrews from 28 different institutes and universities were involved in. A total of 26 airborne missions, about 110 hours were flown. Airborne sensors including microwave radiometers at L, K and Ka bands, imaging spectrometer, thermal imager, CCD and LIDAR were used. Ground measurements were carried out concurrently with the airborne and space-borne remote sensing at four scales, i.e., key experimental area, foci experimental area, experiment site and elementary sampling plot. A network of hydro meteorological and flux observations was established in the upper and middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin. The network was composed of 12 super Automatic Meteorological Stations (AMS), 6 Eddy Covariance (EC) systems, 2 Large Aperture Scintillometers (LAS), and plenty of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) operational meteorological and hydrological stations. Additionally, we also used ground-based remote sensing instruments, such as Doppler Radar, ground based microwave radiometer and truck-mounted scatterometer and lots of auto

Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, D. J.; Gillett, N. P.; Lanzante, J.; Shine, K. P.; Thorne, P.

2010-12-01

Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy. Although many of the same modeling and observational tools have been applied, and there are many common scientific issues in both regions of the atmosphere, stratospheric temperatures have not captured the imagination of the public, the popular press and public policy community. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970’s to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature, including observing systems, dataset development for trend estimates, modeling approaches, and associated uncertainties. Recent developments will be highlighted.

Trends, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane over the western Pacific observed using voluntary observing ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terao, Y.; Kim, H.; Mukai, H.; Nojiri, Y.; Machida, T.; Tohjima, Y.; Saeki, T.; Maksyutov, S.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of trends, interannual variability (IAV), and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane (CH4) over the western Pacific between 55N and 35S from 1994 to 2011. Observations were made by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), using voluntary observation ships sailing between Japan and Australia/New Zealand and between Japan and North America, sampling background maritime air quasi-monthly with high resolution in latitude. We found remarkable phenomena in IAV of CH4 in the northern tropics over the western Pacific: 1) the high growth rate of 20 ppb/yr in mid-1997 ahead of the global increase in 1998, 2) the suppression of CH4 growth in 2007, 3) significantly smaller amplitude of seasonal cycle in 1999-2000 and in 2008. Results from the simulation and meteorological analysis indicated that the IAV in atmospheric circulation associated with the El Nino and La Nina significantly contributed to these events. Our observations were made at sites located relatively close to the large CH4 sources of East and Southeast Asia, which resulted in the high sensitivity of measured CH4 mixing ratios in the northern tropics to changes in atmospheric transport and emissions from East and Southeast Asia. We will show the results from inverse analysis using our ship measurements as well as other global dataset. The CH4 data set we presented here would be valuable in accurately and quantitatively estimating the global CH4 budget.

Multiscale Behavior of Viscous Fluids Dynamics: Experimental Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arciniega-Ceballos, Alejandra; Spina, Laura; Scheu, Bettina; Dingwell, Donald B.

2016-04-01

The dynamics of Newtonian fluids with viscosities of mafic to intermediate silicate melts (10-1000 Pa s) during slow decompression present multi-time scale processes. To observe these processes we have performed several experiments on silicon oil saturated with Argon gas for 72 hours, in a Plexiglas autoclave. The slow decompression, dropping from 10 MPa to ambient pressure, acting as the excitation mechanism, triggered several processes with their own distinct timescales. These processes generate complex non-stationary microseismic signals, which have been recorded with 7 high-dynamic piezoelectric sensors located along the conduit flanked by high-speed video recordings. The analysis in time and frequency of these time series and their correlation with the associated high-speed imaging enables the characterization of distinct phases and the extraction of the individual processes during the evolution of decompression of these viscous fluids. We have observed fluid-solid elastic interaction, degassing, fluid mass expansion and flow, bubble nucleation, growth, coalescence and collapse, foam building and vertical wagging. All these processes (in fine and coarse scales) are sequentially coupled in time, occur within specific pressure intervals, and exhibit a localized distribution along the conduit. Their coexistence and interactions constitute the stress field and driving forces that determine the dynamics of the conduit system. Our observations point to the great potential of this experimental approach in the understanding of volcanic conduit dynamics and volcanic seismicity.

Who launched what, when and why; trends in global land-cover observation capacity from civilian earth observation satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belward, Alan S.; Skøien, Jon O.

2015-05-01

This paper presents a compendium of satellites under civilian and/or commercial control with the potential to gather global land-cover observations. From this we show that a growing number of sovereign states are acquiring capacity for space based land-cover observations and show how geopolitical patterns of ownership are changing. We discuss how the number of satellites flying at any time has progressed as a function of increased launch rates and mission longevity, and how the spatial resolutions of the data they collect has evolved. The first such satellite was launched by the USA in 1972. Since then government and/or private entities in 33 other sovereign states and geopolitical groups have chosen to finance such missions and 197 individual satellites with a global land-cover observing capacity have been successfully launched. Of these 98 were still operating at the end of 2013. Since the 1970s the number of such missions failing within 3 years of launch has dropped from around 60% to less than 20%, the average operational life of a mission has almost tripled, increasing from 3.3 years in the 1970s to 8.6 years (and still lengthening), the average number of satellites launched per-year/per-decade has increased from 2 to 12 and spatial resolution increased from around 80 m to less than 1 m multispectral and less than half a meter for panchromatic; synthetic aperture radar resolution has also fallen, from 25 m in the 1970s to 1 m post 2007. More people in more countries have access to data from global land-cover observing spaceborne missions at a greater range of spatial resolutions than ever before. We provide a compendium of such missions, analyze the changes and shows how innovation, the need for secure data-supply, national pride, falling costs and technological advances may underpin the trends we document.

Cosmic ray experimental observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balasubrahmanyan, V. K.; Mcdonald, F. B.

1974-01-01

The current experimental situation in cosmic ray studies is discussed, with special emphasis on the development of new detector systems. Topics covered are the techniques for particle identification, energy measurements, gas Cerenkov counters, magnet spectrometers, ionization spectrometers, track detectors, nuclear emulsions, multiparameter analysis using arrays of detectors, the Goddard ionization spectrometer, charge spectra, relative abundances, isotope composition, antinuclei in cosmic rays, electrons, the measurement of cosmic ray arrival directions, and the prehistory of cosmic rays.

A century of meteorological observations at Fort Valley Experimental Forest: A cooperative observer program success story (P-53)

Treesearch

Daniel P. Huebner; Susan D. Olberding; Byron Peterson; Dino DeSimone

2008-01-01

Meteorological observations at Fort Valley Experimental Forest began with its establishment as early silvicultural research made heavy use of meteorological data. The Fort Valley weather data represent the longest climatological record for northern Arizona with records dating back to 1909. Importance of long term meteorological records and access to the weather record...

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at 8 NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2014-09-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2%, but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45 km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Compososition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely: Ny-Alesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time-series varies by station, but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere, and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns; at Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0 % decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seems to be needed to observe it at the northern mid

Trends of ozone total columns and vertical distribution from FTIR observations at eight NDACC stations around the globe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigouroux, C.; Blumenstock, T.; Coffey, M.; Errera, Q.; García, O.; Jones, N. B.; Hannigan, J. W.; Hase, F.; Liley, B.; Mahieu, E.; Mellqvist, J.; Notholt, J.; Palm, M.; Persson, G.; Schneider, M.; Servais, C.; Smale, D.; Thölix, L.; De Mazière, M.

2015-03-01

Ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements of solar absorption spectra can provide ozone total columns with a precision of 2% but also independent partial column amounts in about four vertical layers, one in the troposphere and three in the stratosphere up to about 45km, with a precision of 5-6%. We use eight of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations having a long-term time series of FTIR ozone measurements to study the total and vertical ozone trends and variability, namely, Ny-Ålesund (79° N), Thule (77° N), Kiruna (68° N), Harestua (60° N), Jungfraujoch (47° N), Izaña (28° N), Wollongong (34° S) and Lauder (45° S). The length of the FTIR time series varies by station but is typically from about 1995 to present. We applied to the monthly means of the ozone total and four partial columns a stepwise multiple regression model including the following proxies: solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation (AO/AAO), tropopause pressure (TP), equivalent latitude (EL), Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF), and volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC). At the Arctic stations, the trends are found mostly negative in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, very mixed in the middle stratosphere, positive in the upper stratosphere due to a large increase in the 1995-2003 period, and non-significant when considering the total columns. The trends for mid-latitude and subtropical stations are all non-significant, except at Lauder in the troposphere and upper stratosphere and at Wollongong for the total columns and the lower and middle stratospheric columns where they are found positive. At Jungfraujoch, the upper stratospheric trend is close to significance (+0.9 ± 1.0% decade-1). Therefore, some signs of the onset of ozone mid-latitude recovery are observed only in the Southern Hemisphere, while a few more years seem to be needed to observe it at

The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Carey, Sean K.; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris

2017-04-01

Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are prerequisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies, predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs.

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE PAGES

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; ...

2016-06-10

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan

Here, we use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We also found that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias inmore » CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. Our results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.« less

Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.;

Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel 1988, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

Chapters on the following topics are presented: trends in stratospheric temperature; theory and observations- model simulations of the period 1955-1985; trends in source gases; trends in stratospheric minor constituents; trends in aerosol abundances and distribution; and observations and theories related to antarctic ozone.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Experimental Observation and Theoretical Description of Multisoliton Fission in Shallow Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trillo, S.; Deng, G.; Biondini, G.; Klein, M.; Clauss, G. F.; Chabchoub, A.; Onorato, M.

2016-09-01

We observe the dispersive breaking of cosine-type long waves [Phys. Rev. Lett. 15, 240 (1965)] in shallow water, characterizing the highly nonlinear "multisoliton" fission over variable conditions. We provide new insight into the interpretation of the results by analyzing the data in terms of the periodic inverse scattering transform for the Korteweg-de Vries equation. In a wide range of dispersion and nonlinearity, the data compare favorably with our analytical estimate, based on a rigorous WKB approach, of the number of emerging solitons. We are also able to observe experimentally the universal Fermi-Pasta-Ulam recurrence in the regime of moderately weak dispersion.

Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.

2018-01-01

Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.

NOx emission trends over Chinese cities estimated from OMI observations during 2005 to 2015.

PubMed

Liu, Fei; Beirle, Steffen; Zhang, Qiang; van der A, Ronald J; Zheng, Bo; Tong, Dan; He, Kebin

2017-01-01

Satellite NO 2 observations have been widely used to evaluate emission changes. To determine trends in NO x emission over China, we used a method independent of chemical transport models to quantify the NO x emissions from 48 cities and 7 power plants over China, on the basis of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO 2 observations during 2005 to 2015. We found that NO x emissions over 48 Chinese cities increased by 52% from 2005 to 2011 and decreased by 21% from 2011 to 2015. The decrease since 2011 could be mainly attributed to emission control measures in power sector; while cities with different dominant emission sources (i.e. power, industrial and transportation sectors) showed variable emission decline timelines that corresponded to the schedules for emission control in different sectors. The time series of the derived NO x emissions was consistent with the bottom-up emission inventories for all power plants (r=0.8 on average), but not for some cities (r=0.4 on average). The lack of consistency observed for cities was most probably due to the high uncertainty of bottom-up urban emissions used in this study, which were derived from downscaling the regional-based emission data to cities by using spatial distribution proxies.

NOx emission trends over Chinese cities estimated from OMI observations during 2005 to 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; Beirle, Steffen; Zhang, Qiang; van der A, Ronald J.; Zheng, Bo; Tong, Dan; He, Kebin

2017-08-01

Satellite nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations have been widely used to evaluate emission changes. To determine trends in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission over China, we used a method independent of chemical transport models to quantify the NOx emissions from 48 cities and seven power plants over China, on the basis of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 observations from 2005 to 2015. We found that NOx emissions over 48 Chinese cities increased by 52 % from 2005 to 2011 and decreased by 21 % from 2011 to 2015. The decrease since 2011 could be mainly attributed to emission control measures in power sector; while cities with different dominant emission sources (i.e., power, industrial, and transportation sectors) showed variable emission decline timelines that corresponded to the schedules for emission control in different sectors. The time series of the derived NOx emissions was consistent with the bottom-up emission inventories for all power plants (r = 0. 8 on average), but not for some cities (r = 0. 4 on average). The lack of consistency observed for cities was most probably due to the high uncertainty of bottom-up urban emissions used in this study, which were derived from downscaling the regional-based emission data to city level by using spatial distribution proxies.

Experimental Observation of Thin-shell Instability in a Collisionless Plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahmed, H.; Doria, D.; Sarri, G.

We report on the experimental observation of the instability of a plasma shell, which formed during the expansion of a laser-ablated plasma into a rarefied ambient medium. By means of a proton radiography technique, the evolution of the instability is temporally and spatially resolved on a timescale much shorter than the hydrodynamic one. The density of the thin shell exceeds that of the surrounding plasma, which lets electrons diffuse outward. An ambipolar electric field grows on both sides of the thin shell that is antiparallel to the density gradient. Ripples in the thin shell result in a spatially varying balancemore » between the thermal pressure force mediated by this field and the ram pressure force that is exerted on it by the inflowing plasma. This mismatch amplifies the ripples by the same mechanism that drives the hydrodynamic nonlinear thin-shell instability (NTSI). Our results thus constitute the first experimental verification that the NTSI can develop in colliding flows.« less

Experimental Observation of Thin-shell Instability in a Collisionless Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, H.; Doria, D.; Dieckmann, M. E.; Sarri, G.; Romagnani, L.; Bret, A.; Cerchez, M.; Giesecke, A. L.; Ianni, E.; Kar, S.; Notley, M.; Prasad, R.; Quinn, K.; Willi, O.; Borghesi, M.

2017-01-01

We report on the experimental observation of the instability of a plasma shell, which formed during the expansion of a laser-ablated plasma into a rarefied ambient medium. By means of a proton radiography technique, the evolution of the instability is temporally and spatially resolved on a timescale much shorter than the hydrodynamic one. The density of the thin shell exceeds that of the surrounding plasma, which lets electrons diffuse outward. An ambipolar electric field grows on both sides of the thin shell that is antiparallel to the density gradient. Ripples in the thin shell result in a spatially varying balance between the thermal pressure force mediated by this field and the ram pressure force that is exerted on it by the inflowing plasma. This mismatch amplifies the ripples by the same mechanism that drives the hydrodynamic nonlinear thin-shell instability (NTSI). Our results thus constitute the first experimental verification that the NTSI can develop in colliding flows.

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Trends in detectable viral load by calendar year in the Australian HIV observational database.

PubMed

Law, Matthew G; Woolley, Ian; Templeton, David J; Roth, Norm; Chuah, John; Mulhall, Brian; Canavan, Peter; McManus, Hamish; Cooper, David A; Petoumenos, Kathy

2011-02-23

Recent papers have suggested that expanded combination antiretroviral treatment (cART) through lower viral load may be a strategy to reduce HIV transmission at a population level. We assessed calendar trends in detectable viral load in patients recruited to the Australian HIV Observational Database who were receiving cART. Patients were included in analyses if they had started cART (defined as three or more antiretrovirals) and had at least one viral load assessment after 1 January 1997. We analyzed detectable viral load (>400 copies/ml) in the first and second six months of each calendar year while receiving cART. Repeated measures logistic regression methods were used to account for within and between patient variability. Rates of detectable viral load were predicted allowing for patients lost to follow up. Analyses were based on 2439 patients and 31,339 viral load assessments between 1 January 1997 and 31 March 2009. Observed detectable viral load in patients receiving cART declined to 5.3% in the first half of 2009. Predicted detectable viral load based on multivariate models, allowing for patient loss to follow up, also declined over time, but at higher levels, to 13.8% in 2009. Predicted detectable viral load in Australian HIV Observational Database patients receiving cART declined over calendar time, albeit at higher levels than observed. However, over this period, HIV diagnoses and estimated HIV incidence increased in Australia.

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE PAGES

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; ...

2015-06-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO₂ levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO₂ trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO₂ vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite.We demonstrate that the current OMI NO₂ algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence ofmore » trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO₂ concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO₂ standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO₂ reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO₂ VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model

U.S. NO₂ trends (2005–2013): EPA air quality system (AQS) data versus improved observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and, subsequently, atmospheric levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have decreased over the U.S. due to a combination of environmental policies and technological change. Consequently, NO₂ levels have decreased by 30–40% in the last decade. We quantify NO₂ trends (2005–2013) over the U.S. using surface measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) and an improved tropospheric NO₂ vertical column density (VCD) data product from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite.We demonstrate that the current OMI NO₂ algorithm is of sufficient maturity to allow a favorable correspondence ofmore » trends and variations in OMI and AQS data. Our trend model accounts for the non-linear dependence of NO₂ concentration on emissions associated with the seasonal variation of the chemical lifetime, including the change in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle associated with the significant change in NO x emissions that occurred over the last decade. The direct relationship between observations and emissions becomes more robust when one accounts for these non-linear dependencies. We improve the OMI NO₂ standard retrieval algorithm and, subsequently, the data product by using monthly vertical concentration profiles, a required algorithm input, from a high-resolution chemistry and transport model (CTM) simulation with varying emissions (2005-2013). The impact of neglecting the time-dependence of the profiles leads to errors in trend estimation, particularly in regions where emissions have changed substantially. For example, trends calculated from retrievals based on time-dependent profiles offer 18% more instances of significant trends and up to 15% larger total NO₂ reduction versus the results based on profiles for 2005. Using a CTM, we explore the theoretical relation of the trends estimated from NO₂ VCDs to those estimated from ground-level concentrations. The model

Experimental observation of sub-Rayleigh quantum imaging with a two-photon entangled source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, De-Qin; School of Science, Tianjin University of Technology and Education, Tianjin 300222; Song, Xin-Bing

It has been theoretically predicted that N-photon quantum imaging can realize either an N-fold resolution improvement (Heisenberg-like scaling) or a √(N)-fold resolution improvement (standard quantum limit) beyond the Rayleigh diffraction bound, over classical imaging. Here, we report the experimental study on spatial sub-Rayleigh quantum imaging using a two-photon entangled source. Two experimental schemes are proposed and performed. In a Fraunhofer diffraction scheme with a lens, two-photon Airy disk pattern is observed with subwavelength diffraction property. In a lens imaging apparatus, however, two-photon sub-Rayleigh imaging for an object is realized with super-resolution property. The experimental results agree with the theoretical predictionmore » in the two-photon quantum imaging regime.« less

2010-2015 methane trends over Canada, the United States, and Mexico observed by the GOSAT satellite: contributions from different source sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, J. X.; Jacob, D.; Turner, A. J.; Maasakkers, J. D.; Benmergui, J. S.; Bloom, A. A.; Arndt, C.; Gautam, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.; Boesch, H.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We use six years (2010-2015) of methane column data from the GOSAT satellite to examine trends in atmospheric methane over North America and infer trends in emissions. Local methane enhancements above background are diagnosed in the GOSAT data on a 0.5°x0.5° grid by estimating the local background as the low (10th-25th) quantile of the deseasonalized frequency distributions of the data for individual years. Trends in methane enhancements on the 0.5°x0.5° grid are then aggregated nationally and for individual source sectors, using information from state-of-science bottom-up inventories, to increase statistical power. We infer that US methane emissions increased by 1.9% a-1 over the six-year period, with contributions from both oil/gas systems (possibly unconventional gas production) and from livestock in the Midwest (possibly swine production). Mexican emissions show a decrease that can be attributed to a decreasing cattle population. Canadian emissions show interannual variability driven by wetlands emissions and correlated with wetland areal extent. The US emission trends inferred from the GOSAT data are within the constraint provided by surface observations from the North American Carbon Program network.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Carbon monoxide observations from ground stations in France and Europe and long trends in the free troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevalier, A.; Gheusi, F.; Attié, J.-L.; Delmas, R.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Cousin, J.-M.

2008-02-01

Continuous CO measurements performed at 3 high-altitude stations in France are analyzed for the first time. Data are provided by the new PAES (Pollution Atmospherique à l'Echelle Synoptique) network since 2002 for the Puy de Dôme and 2004 for the Pic du Midi and the Donon. CO measurements of 5 another European stations have been analysed to put the PAES stations in an European perspective. The January 2002-April 2005 CO mean levels of surface stations capture the stratification revealed by climatological CO profiles from the airborne observation system MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and water vapour by Airbus In-service Aircraft). The deviation between the free tropospheric reference MOZAIC and surface data above 2000 m is less than 10% and this deviation can be explained in term of spatial variability, as evidenced by MOPITT CO retrievals at 700 hPa. This suggests that, averaged at a seasonal time scale (4 months), surface data at stations above 2000 m are representative of background CO concentration. This paper focuses then on trends since the 1980s-1990s. The comparison between old (1982-1983) and recent CO mixing ratio (2005) at the Pic du Midi leads to a 10% decrease, consistent with the continuous data series at Zugspitze (ZSP) from 1991 to 2004. This decrease was found to be mainly due to a negative trend of January-April mean levels. The decrease in CO sources over France and Europe appears to be responsible for that trend. The stable values of June-September mean levels suggest that the summertime oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere related to OH radicals is important enough to counterbalance any CO inputs into the troposphere. Our study shows a recent change in CO evolution since 2000 over Western Europe, with a slowed down decrease in CO concentration. Studying specifically the interactions between CO, CH4 and OH turns out to be needed, however, to find definitive explanations to those observations.

Examining the impact of introducing ICD-MM on observed trends in maternal mortality rates in the UK 2003-13.

PubMed

Knight, Marian; Nair, Manisha; Brocklehurst, Peter; Kenyon, Sara; Neilson, James; Shakespeare, Judy; Tuffnell, Derek; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J

2016-07-20

The causes of maternal death are now classified internationally according to ICD-MM. One significant change with the introduction of ICD-MM in 2012 was the reclassification of maternal suicide from the indirect group to the direct group. This has led to concerns about the impact of this reclassification on calculated mortality rates. The aim of this analysis was to examine the trends in maternal deaths in the UK over the past 10 years, and to investigate the impact of reclassification using ICD-MM on the observed rates. Data about all maternal deaths between 2003-13 in the UK were included in this analysis. Data about maternal deaths occurring prior to 2009 were obtained from previously published reports. The deaths of women from 2009-13 during or after pregnancy were identified through the MBRRACE-UK Confidential Enquiry into Maternal Deaths. The underlying causes of maternal death were reclassified from a disease-based system to ICD-MM. Maternal mortality rates with 95 % confidence intervals were calculated using national data on the number of maternities as the denominator. Rate ratios with 95 % CI were calculated to compare the change in rates of maternal death as per ICD-MM relative to the old classification system. There was a decrease in the maternal death rate between 2003-05 and 2011-13 (rate ratio (RR) 0.65; 95 % CI 0.54-0.77 comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time). The direct maternal death rate calculated using the old classification decreased with a RR of 0.47 (95 % CI 0.34-0.63) when comparing 2011-13 with 2003-05; p = 0.005 for trend over time. Reclassification using ICD-MM made little material difference to the observed trend in direct maternal death rates, RR = 0.51 (95 % CI 0.39-0.68) when comparing 2003-5 with 2011-13; p = 0.005 for trend over time. The impact of reclassifying maternal deaths according to ICD-MM in the UK was minimal. However, such reclassification raises awareness of maternal suicides

Ozone trends and their relationship to characteristic weather patterns.

PubMed

Austin, Elena; Zanobetti, Antonella; Coull, Brent; Schwartz, Joel; Gold, Diane R; Koutrakis, Petros

2015-01-01

Local trends in ozone concentration may differ by meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the trends occurring at the extremes of the Ozone distribution are often not reported even though these may be very different than the trend observed at the mean or median and they may be more relevant to health outcomes. Classify days of observation over a 16-year period into broad categories that capture salient daily local weather characteristics. Determine the rate of change in mean and median O3 concentrations within these different categories to assess how concentration trends are impacted by daily weather. Further examine if trends vary for observations in the extremes of the O3 distribution. We used k-means clustering to categorize days of observation based on the maximum daily temperature, standard deviation of daily temperature, mean daily ground level wind speed, mean daily water vapor pressure and mean daily sea-level barometric pressure. The five cluster solution was determined to be the appropriate one based on cluster diagnostics and cluster interpretability. Trends in cluster frequency and pollution trends within clusters were modeled using Poisson regression with penalized splines as well as quantile regression. There were five characteristic groupings identified. The frequency of days with large standard deviations in hourly temperature decreased over the observation period, whereas the frequency of warmer days with smaller deviations in temperature increased. O3 trends were significantly different within the different weather groupings. Furthermore, the rate of O3 change for the 95th percentile and 5th percentile was significantly different than the rate of change of the median for several of the weather categories.We found that O3 trends vary between different characteristic local weather patterns. O3 trends were significantly different between the different weather groupings suggesting an important interaction between changes in prevailing weather

Physiotherapists use a small number of behaviour change techniques when promoting physical activity: A systematic review comparing experimental and observational studies.

PubMed

Kunstler, Breanne E; Cook, Jill L; Freene, Nicole; Finch, Caroline F; Kemp, Joanne L; O'Halloran, Paul D; Gaida, James E

2018-06-01

Physiotherapists promote physical activity as part of their practice. This study reviewed the behaviour change techniques physiotherapists use when promoting physical activity in experimental and observational studies. Systematic review of experimental and observational studies. Twelve databases were searched using terms related to physiotherapy and physical activity. We included experimental studies evaluating the efficacy of physiotherapist-led physical activity interventions delivered to adults in clinic-based private practice and outpatient settings to individuals with, or at risk of, non-communicable diseases. Observational studies reporting the techniques physiotherapists use when promoting physical activity were also included. The behaviour change techniques used in all studies were identified using the Behaviour Change Technique Taxonomy. The behaviour change techniques appearing in efficacious and inefficacious experimental interventions were compared using a narrative approach. Twelve studies (nine experimental and three observational) were retained from the initial search yield of 4141. Risk of bias ranged from low to high. Physiotherapists used seven behaviour change techniques in the observational studies, compared to 30 behaviour change techniques in the experimental studies. Social support (unspecified) was the most frequently identified behaviour change technique across both settings. Efficacious experimental interventions used more behaviour change techniques (n=29) and functioned in more ways (n=6) than did inefficacious experimental interventions (behaviour change techniques=10 and functions=1). Physiotherapists use a small number of behaviour change techniques. Less behaviour change techniques were identified in observational studies compared to experimental studies, suggesting physiotherapists use less BCTs clinically than experimentally. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimentally observed conformation-dependent geometry and hidden strain in proteins.

PubMed Central

Karplus, P. A.

1996-01-01

A database has been compiled documenting the peptide conformations and geometries from 70 diverse proteins refined at 1.75 A or better. Analysis of the well-ordered residues within the database shows phi, psi-distributions that have more fine structure than is generally observed. Also, clear evidence is presented that the peptide covalent geometry depends on conformation, with the interpeptide N-C alpha-C bond angle varying by nearly +/-5 degrees from its standard value. The observed deviations from standard peptide geometry are greatest near the edges of well-populated regions, consistent with strain occurring in these conformations. Minimization of such hidden strain could be an important factor in thermostability of proteins. These empirical data describing how equilibrium peptide geometry varies as a function of conformation confirm and extend quantum mechanics calculations, and have predictive value that will aid both theoretical and experimental analyses of protein structure. PMID:8819173

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

PubMed

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

Climatological assessment of spatiotemporal trends in observational monthly snowfall totals and extremes over the Canadian Great Lakes Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baijnath, Janine; Duguay, Claude; Sushama, Laxmi; Huziy, Oleksandr

2017-04-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB) is susceptible to snowfall events that derive from extratropical cyclones and heavy lake effect snowfall (HLES). The former is generated by quasigeostropic forcing from positive temperature or vorticity advection associated with low-pressure centres. HLES is produced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) convection that is initiated as a result of cold and dry continental air mass advecting over relatively warm lakes and generating turbulent moisture and heat fluxes into the PBL. HLES events can have disastrous impacts on local communities such as the November 2014 Buffalo storm that caused 13 fatalities. Albeit the many HLES studies, most are focused on specific case study events with a discernible under examination of climatological HLES trend analyses for the Canadian GLB. The research objectives are to first determine the historical, climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals and to examine potential surface and atmospheric variables driving the resultant changes in HLES. The second aims to analyze the historical extremes in snowfall by assessing the intensity, frequency, and duration of snowfall within the domain of interest. Spatiotemporal snowfall and precipitation trends are computed for the 1982 to 2015 period using Daymet (Version 3) monthly gridded observational datasets from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST), and the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) datasets are also used for evaluating trends in HLES driving variables such as air temperature, lake surface temperature (LST), ice cover concentration, omega, and vertical temperature gradient (VTGlst-850). Climatological trends in monthly snowfall totals show a significant decrease along the Ontario snowbelt of Lake Superior, Lake Huron and Georgian Bay at the 90 percent confidence level. These results are attributed to significant warming in LST, significant

Power-Stepped HF Cross-Modulation Experiments: Simulations and Experimental Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greene, S.; Moore, R. C.

2014-12-01

High frequency (HF) cross modulation experiments are a well established means for probing the HF-modified characteristics of the D-region ionosphere. The interaction between the heating wave and the probing pulse depends on the ambient and modified conditions of the D-region ionosphere. Cross-modulation observations are employed as a measure of the HF-modified refractive index. We employ an optimized version of Fejer's method that we developed during previous experiments. Experiments were performed in March 2013 at the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) observatory in Gakona, Alaska. During these experiments, the power of the HF heating signal incrementally increased in order to determine the dependence of cross-modulation on HF power. We found that a simple power law relationship does not hold at high power levels, similar to previous ELF/VLF wave generation experiments. In this paper, we critically compare these experimental observations with the predictions of a numerical ionospheric HF heating model and demonstrate close agreement.

Observing Decadal Trends in Atmospheric Feedbacks and Climate Change with Zeus and CLARREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revercomb, H. E.; Best, F. A.; Knuteson, R. O.; Tobin, D. C.; Taylor, J. K.; Gero, P.; Adler, D. P.; Pettersen, C.; Mulligan, M.; Tobin, D. C.

2012-12-01

New technologies for observing decadal trends in atmospheric feedbacks and climate change from space have been recently demonstrated via a NASA Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) project of our group and the Anderson Group of Harvard University. Using these new technologies, a mission named Zeus has been proposed to the first NASA Earth Venture Instruments opportunity (EVI-1). Zeus would provide a low cost mechanism to initiate a new era in high spectral resolution IR climate Benchmark and Intercalibration observations, the basis for which has been established by definition of the CLARREO mission in the 2007 NRC "Decadal Survey" and by the Science Definition Team established by NASA LaRC to further the full blown CLARREO mission. Zeus EVI is a low-cost, low-risk, and high-value EVI mission that will deploy an Absolute Radiance Interferometer (ARI) instrument to measure absolute spectrally resolved infrared radiance over much of the Earth-emitted spectrum with ultra-high accuracy (<0.1 K 3-sigma brightness temperature). Zeus makes use of broad spectral coverage (3.7-50 microns) and high spectral resolution (<1 cm-1) to provide benchmark products for climate trending with much higher information content than traditional spectrally-integrated measurements. While ARI requirements for accuracy and spectral properties are demanding, the overall instrument is relatively simple and low-cost because of the limited requirements on spatial sampling (25-100 km nadir-only footprints spaced at < 250 km) and on noise performance (climate products are created by combining many samples). The orbit chosen for Zeus must provide coverage immune to time-of-day sampling errors. Because of its relatively high rate of precession, an attractive baseline option for Zeus EVI is the 51.6 degrees inclination orbit of the International Space Station (ISS). For Zeus deployment on the ISS, higher latitude climate benchmark information will be obtained from operational sounders intercalibrated by

NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…

Experimental Observation of a Generalized Thouless Pump with a Single Spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Wenchao; Zhou, Longwen; Zhang, Qi; Li, Min; Cheng, Chunyang; Geng, Jianpei; Rong, Xing; Shi, Fazhan; Gong, Jiangbin; Du, Jiangfeng

2018-03-01

Adiabatic cyclic modulation of a one-dimensional periodic potential will result in quantized charge transport, which is termed the Thouless pump. In contrast to the original Thouless pump restricted by the topology of the energy band, here we experimentally observe a generalized Thouless pump that can be extensively and continuously controlled. The extraordinary features of the new pump originate from interband coherence in nonequilibrium initial states, and this fact indicates that a quantum superposition of different eigenstates individually undergoing quantum adiabatic following can also be an important ingredient unavailable in classical physics. The quantum simulation of this generalized Thouless pump in a two-band insulator is achieved by applying delicate control fields to a single spin in diamond. The experimental results demonstrate all principal characteristics of the generalized Thouless pump. Because the pumping in our system is most pronounced around a band-touching point, this work also suggests an alternative means to detect quantum or topological phase transitions.

Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.

2003-04-01

The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.

Observations of experimental and numerical waveforms of piezoelectric signals generated in bovine cancellous bone by ultrasound waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosokawa, Atsushi

2018-07-01

Experimental and numerical waveforms of piezoelectric signals generated in the bovine cancellous bone by ultrasound waves at 1.0 MHz were observed. The experimental observations were performed using a “piezoelectric cell (PE-cell)”, in which an air-saturated cancellous bone specimen was electrically shielded. The PE-cell was used to receive burst ultrasound waves. The numerical observations were performed using a piezoelectric finite-difference time-domain (PE-FDTD) method, which was an elastic FDTD method with piezoelectric constitutive equations. The cancellous bone model was reconstructed from the three-dimensional X-ray microcomputed tomographic image of the specimen used in the experiments. Both experimental and numerical results showed that the repetitive piezoelectric signals could be generated by the multireflected ultrasound waves within the cancellous bone specimen. Moreover, it was shown that the output piezoelectric signal in the PE-cell could be the overlap of the local signals in the trabecular elements at various depths (or thicknesses) in the cancellous bone specimen.

Projecting Trends in Public Policy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagel, Stuart S.

Looking back over the past 40 years, one can observe at least seven trends in public policy substance and in the study of public policy: (1) There is a trend toward higher goals for society in economic, social, political, and science policy. (2) Major changes in almost all fields of public policy have resulted in increased benefits for the less…

Understanding trends in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction rates

DOE PAGES

Liu, Xinyan; Xiao, Jianping; Peng, Hongjie; ...

2017-05-22

Electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction to fuels presents one of the great challenges in chemistry. Herein we present an understanding of trends in electrocatalytic activity for carbon dioxide reduction over different metal catalysts that rationalize a number of experimental observations including the selectivity with respect to the competing hydrogen evolution reaction. We also identify two design criteria for more active catalysts. The understanding is based on density functional theory calculations of activation energies for electrochemical carbon monoxide reduction as a basis for an electrochemical kinetic model of the process. Furthermore, we develop scaling relations relating transition state energies to the carbonmore » monoxide adsorption energy and determine the optimal value of this descriptor to be very close to that of copper.« less

Understanding trends in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xinyan; Xiao, Jianping; Peng, Hongjie

Electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction to fuels presents one of the great challenges in chemistry. Herein we present an understanding of trends in electrocatalytic activity for carbon dioxide reduction over different metal catalysts that rationalize a number of experimental observations including the selectivity with respect to the competing hydrogen evolution reaction. We also identify two design criteria for more active catalysts. The understanding is based on density functional theory calculations of activation energies for electrochemical carbon monoxide reduction as a basis for an electrochemical kinetic model of the process. Furthermore, we develop scaling relations relating transition state energies to the carbonmore » monoxide adsorption energy and determine the optimal value of this descriptor to be very close to that of copper.« less

Forest Dragon-3: Decadal Trends of Northeastern Forests in China from Earth Observation Synergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmullius, C.; Balling, J.; Schratz, P.; Thiel, C.; Santoro, M.; Wegmuller, U.; Li, Z.; Yong, P.

2016-08-01

In Forest DRAGON 3, synergy of Earth Observation products to derive information of decadal trends of forest in northeast China was investigated. Following up the results of Forest-DRAGON 1 and 2, Growing Stock Volume (GSV) products from different years were investigated to derive information on vegetational in north- east China. The BIOMASAR maps of 2005 and 2010, produced within the previous DRAGON projects, set the base for all analyses. We took a closer look at scale problems regarding GSV derivation, which are introduced by differing landcover within one pixel, to investigate differences throughout pixel classes with varying landcover class percentages. We developed an approach to select pixels containing forest only with the aim of undertaking a detailed analysis on retrieved GSV values for such pixels for the years 2005 and 2010. Using existing land cover products at different scales, the plausibility of changes in the BIOMASAR maps were checked.

Contrasting trends in light pollution across Europe based on satellite observed night time lights.

PubMed

Bennie, Jonathan; Davies, Thomas W; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

2014-01-21

Since the 1970s nighttime satellite images of the Earth from space have provided a striking illustration of the extent of artificial light. Meanwhile, growing awareness of adverse impacts of artificial light at night on scientific astronomy, human health, ecological processes and aesthetic enjoyment of the night sky has led to recognition of light pollution as a significant global environmental issue. Links between economic activity, population growth and artificial light are well documented in rapidly developing regions. Applying a novel method to analysis of satellite images of European nighttime lights over 15 years, we show that while the continental trend is towards increasing brightness, some economically developed regions show more complex patterns with large areas decreasing in observed brightness over this period. This highlights that opportunities exist to constrain and even reduce the environmental impact of artificial light pollution while delivering cost and energy-saving benefits.

Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

2017-12-01

South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

Students' Understanding of Analogy after a Core (Chemical Observations, Representations, Experimentation) Learning Cycle, General Chemistry Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Avargil, Shirly; Bruce, Mitchell R. M.; Amar, Franc¸ois G.; Bruce, Alice E.

2015-01-01

Students' understanding about analogy was investigated after a CORE learning cycle general chemistry experiment. CORE (Chemical Observations, Representations, Experimentation) is a new three-phase learning cycle that involves (phase 1) guiding students through chemical observations while they consider a series of open-ended questions, (phase 2)…

Experimental observation of hysteresis in a coherent metal-hydride phase transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wen; Pálsson, Gunnar K.; Brischetto, Martin; Droulias, Sotirios A.; Hartmann, Ola; Wolff, Max; Hjörvarsson, Björgvin

2017-12-01

We investigate the hysteresis obtained in the hydrogen absorption and desorption cycle for a single crystal Pd/V_28 ≤ft[Fe4 /V_28\\right]11 superlattice. Below the critical temperature, a small but clear hysteresis is observed in the pressure-composition isotherms, while it is absent above. The experimental results thereby prove the relevance of macroscopic energy barriers for obtaining hysteresis in coherent structural transformations. The textured Pd layer exhibits substantially larger hysteresis effects, which can be related to an irreversible energy loss caused by defect generation in Pd.

Spatio-Temporal b Value Trends For a PMMA-PMMA Frictional Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, J.; Selvadurai, P. A.; Glaser, S. D.

2016-12-01

We develop a catalog of seismic events observed on a well-characterized PMMA-PMMA frictional interface to allow for an in depth study of spatio-temporal trends in along-fault b values. Recent studies of the 2009 L'Aquila [Gulia et al., GRL, 2016] and 2011 Tohoku-oki [Tormann et al., Nature Geo., 2015] events have found significant decrease in b values near the epicenters in the months leading up to rupture. Here, a fault is experimentally modeled using two Poly(methyl methacrylate) samples in a direct shear configuration. The initial, non-uniform distribution of asperities along the frictional interface was measured using a pressure sensitive film. Prior to a stick-slip event, localized seismicity was captured using 16 acoustic emission (AE) sensors, which provide the catalog events and b value analysis. We observe similar decreasing trends in b values prior to failure as observed in nature. We discuss the spatio-temporal variations in b values with respect to a slowly expanding shear rupture captured using dense `along-strike' arrays of 9 slip sensors and 24 strain gauges. The rate at which the shear rupture moved along the interface depended on the shear strength heterogeneity characterized by the non-uniform distribution of asperities. In the latter stages of nucleation, b values decrease primarily in a region with larger and more densely distributed asperities. The combined analysis will help confirm recent field observations and provide insight into the mechanics of foreshock sequences leading to earthquake rupture.

Experimental observation of low threshold optical bistability in exfoliated graphene with low oxidation degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, Morteza A.; Majles Ara, M. H.; Ghafary, Bijan; Salmani, Somayeh; Mohajer, Salman

2016-03-01

We have experimentally investigated low threshold Optical Bistability (OB) and multi-stability in exfoliated graphene ink with low oxidation degree. Theoretical predictions of N-layer problem and the resonator feedback problem show good agreement with the experimental observation. In contrary to the other graphene oxide samples, we have indicated that the absorbance does not restrict OB process. We have concluded from the experimental results and Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation (NLSE) that the nonlinear dispersion - rather than absorption - is the main nonlinear mechanism of OB. In addition to the enhanced nonlinearity, exfoliated graphene with low oxidation degree possesses semiconductors group III-V equivalent band gap energy, high charge carrier mobility and thus, ultra-fast optical response which makes it a unique optical material for application in all optical switching, especially in THz frequency range.

The long term trend of carbon dioxide and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence over selected sites using GOSAT target observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kataoka, F.; Higuchi, R.; Kuze, A.; Shiomi, K.

2017-12-01

The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) is designed to measure the concentration of major greenhouse gases from space. GOSAT carry the Fourier-Transform Spectrometer, which have three shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands and one thermal infrared (TIR) band. The SWIR bands correspond to the O2A band (0.76 mm), weak-CO2 (1.6 mm) and strong-CO2 (2.0 mm). The SWIR bands observe the backscattered sunlight from surface and retrieve the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide and methane. The 0.76 mm band can also detect the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) using high spectral-resolution spectra in O2A band and solar absorption feature (Fraunhofer lines). GOSAT have operated more than 8 years and targeted various kinds of land-cover area (forest, grass, desert, etc.). The long term CO2 and SIF data set potential to address the rate of CO2 uptake through plant photosynthesis. In this work, we evaluated a trend and seasonal fluctuation components of CO2 and SIF using the liner and trigonometric functions fitting. We analyzed the amplitude and phase of the CO2 and SIF seasonal variation and anomalies over selected sites. Spatial distribution from target observation dataset which consist of 16 point per site using an agile pointing system over megacity is presented together with wind data. The data is available from the GOSAT trend viewer at http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/GOSAT/CO2_monitor/.

Trends in first-line antiretroviral therapy in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV observational database.

PubMed

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥ 6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003-2006 (n = 1419), 2007-2010 (n = 2690) and 2011-2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7-23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003-2006, 15.8 [14.9-16.8] in 2007-2010, and 11.6 [9.4-14.2] in 2011-2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33-0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011-2013 versus 2003-2006), older age (1.56 [1.19-2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥ 50 years versus <30 years), female sex (1.29 [1.11-1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06-1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28-20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and prescriber preferences over the past decade. These changes have contributed to a declining rate of

Experimental and Calculational Studies of the Interactions of BF3 with Fluoroethers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zehe, Michael J.; Morales, Wilfredo; Ball, David W.

1998-01-01

BF3 was co-condensed with (C2H5)2O, (CF3CH2)2O and (C2F5)2O in excess argon at 15 K. Infrared spectra of the matrices showed a definite Lewis acid-base interaction between BF3 and diethyl ether; a weak but definite interaction with bis(2,2,2,-trifluorodiethyl)ether, and no observable interaction with perfluorodiethyl ether. Molecular orbital (MO) calculations complemented the experimental observations by revealing that fluorine atoms on the ethers decreased electron localization about the oxygen atom. Thus, the experimental data and MO calculations indicated a clear trend between strength of interaction with BF3 and the degree of ether F substitution. The implications of the results for commercial perfluoro ether lubricant/metal oxide surface interactions are discussed.

Collapse of a Liquid Column: Numerical Simulation and Experimental Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruchaga, Marcela A.; Celentano, Diego J.; Tezduyar, Tayfun E.

2007-03-01

This paper is focused on the numerical and experimental analyses of the collapse of a liquid column. The measurements of the interface position in a set of experiments carried out with shampoo and water for two different initial column aspect ratios are presented together with the corresponding numerical predictions. The experimental procedure was found to provide acceptable recurrence in the observation of the interface evolution. Basic models describing some of the relevant physical aspects, e.g. wall friction and turbulence, are included in the simulations. Numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the influence of the parameters involved in the modeling by comparing the results with the data from the measurements. The numerical predictions reasonably describe the physical trends.

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.

PubMed

Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W

1986-11-28

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Experimental observation of negative effective gravity in water waves.

PubMed

Hu, Xinhua; Yang, Jiong; Zi, Jian; Chan, C T; Ho, Kai-Ming

2013-01-01

The gravity of Earth is responsible for the formation of water waves and usually difficult to change. Although negative effective gravity was recently predicted theoretically in water waves, it has not yet been observed in experiments and remains a mathematical curiosity which is difficult to understand. Here we experimentally demonstrate that close to the resonant frequency of purposely-designed resonating units, negative effective gravity can occur for water waves passing through an array of resonators composing of bottom-mounted split tubes, resulting in the prohibition of water wave propagation. It is found that when negative gravity occurs, the averaged displacement of water surface in a unit cell of the array has a phase difference of π to that along the boundary of the unit cell, consistent with theoretical predictions. Our results provide a mechanism to block water waves and may find applications in wave energy conversion and coastal protection.

Experimental Observation of Negative Effective Gravity in Water Waves

PubMed Central

Hu, Xinhua; Yang, Jiong; Zi, Jian; Chan, C. T.; Ho, Kai-Ming

2013-01-01

The gravity of Earth is responsible for the formation of water waves and usually difficult to change. Although negative effective gravity was recently predicted theoretically in water waves, it has not yet been observed in experiments and remains a mathematical curiosity which is difficult to understand. Here we experimentally demonstrate that close to the resonant frequency of purposely-designed resonating units, negative effective gravity can occur for water waves passing through an array of resonators composing of bottom-mounted split tubes, resulting in the prohibition of water wave propagation. It is found that when negative gravity occurs, the averaged displacement of water surface in a unit cell of the array has a phase difference of π to that along the boundary of the unit cell, consistent with theoretical predictions. Our results provide a mechanism to block water waves and may find applications in wave energy conversion and coastal protection. PMID:23715132

Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

1989-01-01

The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

Experimental observations of shear band nucleation and propagation in a bulk metallic glass using wedge-like cylindrical indentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoniou, Antonia Maki

2006-12-01

Bulk metallic glasses (BMGs), or amorphous metal alloys, have a unique combination of properties such as high strength, large elastic strain limit (up to 2%), corrosion resistance and formability. These unique properties make them candidates for precision mechanical elements, hinge supports, contact surfaces as well as miniaturized systems (MEMS). However, their limited ductility hinders further realizations of their industrial potential. Under uniaxial tension tests, metallic glass fails in a brittle manner with unstable propagation of a single shear band. There is a need to understand the conditions for shear band nucleation and propagation in order to achieve a superior material system with adequate toughness to ensure in-service reliability. This dissertation focuses on understanding the nucleation and propagation mechanisms of shear bands in BMGs under constrained deformation. The nature of the work is primarily experimental with integrated finite element simulations to elucidate the observed trends. Wedge indentation with a circular profile of different radii is used to provide a stable loading path for in situ monitoring of shear band nucleation, propagation in Vitreloy-1. Detailed analyses of the in-plane finite deformation fields are carried out using digital image correlation. The incremental surface analysis showed that multiple shear bands are developed beneath the indenter. The observed pattern closely follow the traces of slip line field for a pressure sensitive material. The first shear bands initiate in the bulk beneath the indenter when a critical level of mean pressure is achieved. Two distinct shear band patterns are developed, that conform to either the alpha or beta lines for each sector. The deformation zones developed under indenters with different radii were found to be self-similar. The evolution of shear bands beneath the indenter is also characterized into two different categories. A set of primary bands is identified to evolve with the

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brune, William H.; Cox, R. Anthony; Turco, Richard; Brasseur, Guy P.; Matthews, W. Andrew; Zhou, Xiuji; Douglass, Anne; Zander, Rudi J.; Prendez, Margarita; Rodriguez, Jose M.

1991-01-01

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

O3 variability/trends in the troposphere from IASI observations in 2008-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, C.; Hurtmans, D.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard the Metop satellites during the first ten years of the IASI operation (2008-2017). The instrument provides a unique dataset of vertically-resolved O3 profiles with a twice daily global coverage and a fairly good vertical resolution allowing us to monitor the year-to-year variability in the troposphere. The retrievals are performed using the FORLI software, a fast radiative transfer model based on the optimal estimation method, set up for near real time and large scale processing of IASI data. We differentiate trend characteristics from the seasonal and non-seasonal O3 variations captured by IASI in the troposphere by applying appropriate annual and seasonal multivariate regression models, which include important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. quasi biennial oscillations - QBO, El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) and a linear trend term, on time series of spatially gridded averaged O3. The performances of the regression models (annual vs seasonal) are first investigated. Given the large contribution of the interannual variability, we will then describe the effects of the main contributing O3 proxies (e.g. positive - or negatives - ENSO indexes measured during moderate to intense El Niño - or La Niña - episodes in the tropics) in addition to the adjusted O3 trend patterns. A special focus will be given over the Northern Hemisphere which is characterized by decreasing O3 precursor emissions (mainly over Europe and the US). FORLI O3-CO correlations patterns will also be discussed to evaluate the continental influence on the tropospheric O3 trends.

Gender differences influence overweight smokers' experimentation with electronic nicotine delivery systems.

PubMed

Strong, David R; Myers, Mark; Linke, Sarah; Leas, Eric; Hofstetter, Richard; Edland, Steve; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2015-10-01

Overweight and obese tobacco users possess increased risk of cancer, diabetes, heart disease and chronic tobacco-related disease. Efforts to prevent tobacco-related health risk in this comorbid population would be informed by better understanding and monitoring of trends in the concurrent use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) among smokers in the US marketplace. The California Longitudinal Smokers Study (CLSS) established a cohort of current cigarette smokers in 2011 who were surveyed for tobacco use and health behavior at baseline and again in 2012 at follow-up. We observed a large increase in reported experimentation with ENDS. As hypothesized, overweight or obese smokers were more likely to report experimentation with ENDS, an increase that was also observed among women. Experimentation with ENDS was not associated with a reduction in use of cigarettes or a decrease in cigarette dependence in this high risk population of smokers. Continued surveillance of this vulnerable population is needed to better understand how experimentation with new ENDS products may impact health, facilitate switching to non-combustible tobacco or facilitate persistent cigarette dependence. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Southern Hemisphere extratropical circulation: Recent trends and natural variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Jordan L.; Waugh, Darryn W.; Gnanadesikan, Anand

2015-07-01

Changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerly jet location, and magnitude are linked with changes in ocean circulation along with ocean heat and carbon uptake. Recent trends have been observed in these fields but not much is known about the natural variability. Here we aim to quantify the natural variability of the SH extratropical circulation by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial control model runs and compare with the observed trends in SAM, jet magnitude, and jet location. We show that trends in SAM are due partly to external forcing but are not outside the natural variability as described by these models. Trends in jet location and magnitude, however, lie outside the unforced natural variability but can be explained by a combination of natural variability and the ensemble mean forced trend. These results indicate that trends in these three diagnostics cannot be used interchangeably.

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study

PubMed Central

Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-01-01

Objective To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Design Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Setting Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. Population All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Main outcome measures Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). Results During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Conclusion Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health. PMID:21325004

Trends in mortality from 1965 to 2008 across the English north-south divide: comparative observational study.

PubMed

Hacking, John M; Muller, Sara; Buchan, Iain E

2011-02-15

To compare all cause mortality between the north and south of England over four decades. Population wide comparative observational study of mortality. Five northernmost and four southernmost English government office regions. All residents in each year from 1965 to 2008. Death rate ratios of north over south England by age band and sex, and northern excess mortality (percentage of excess deaths in north compared with south, adjusted for age and sex and examined for annual trends, using Poisson regression). During 1965 to 2008 the northern excess mortality remained substantial, at an average of 13.8% (95% confidence interval 13.7% to 13.9%). This geographical inequality was significantly larger for males than for females (14.9%, 14.7% to 15.0% v 12.7%, 12.6% to 12.9%, P<0.001). The inequality decreased significantly but temporarily for both sexes from the early 80s to the late 90s, followed by a steep significant increase from 2000 to 2008. Inequality varied with age, being higher for ages 0-9 years and 40-74 years and lower for ages 10-39 years and over 75 years. Time trends also varied with age. The strongest trend over time by age group was the increase among the 20-34 age group, from no significant northern excess mortality in 1965-95 to 22.2% (18.7% to 26.0%) in 1996-2008. Overall, the north experienced a fifth more premature (<75 years) deaths than the south, which was significant: a pattern that changed only by a slight increase between 1965 and 2008. Inequalities in all cause mortality in the north-south divide were severe and persistent over the four decades from 1965 to 2008. Males were affected more than females, and the variation across age groups was substantial. The increase in this inequality from 2000 to 2008 was notable and occurred despite the public policy emphasis in England over this period on reducing inequalities in health.

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

2016-01-01

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less

Influence of a priori profiles on trend calculations from Umkehr data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mateer, C. L.; Dütsch, H. U.; Staehelin, J.; Deluisi, J. J.

1996-07-01

Although the new (1992) ozone profile retrieval algorithm for Umkehr measurements provides much better agreement with ozone sounding results than the old (1964) algorithm, considerable discrepancies remain with respect to ozone trends at different levels in the atmosphere. These discrepancies have been found by the comparison of long-term trends obtained from the Umkehr measurements at Arosa and the ozone balloon soundings at Payerne (Switzerland). It is investigated here whether these obvious discrepancies can be removed by using time-dependent a priori profiles. This procedure is successful only in the lowest part of the atmosphere, below about 19 km. To further explore this problem, synthetic Umkehr observations are calculated from the ozonesonde profiles. Trends are calculated for both the synthetic and actual Umkehr observations. The difference pattern between these Umkehr observation trends is compared with the difference in ozone profile retrieval trends from the synthetic and actual observations. The distinctive difference patterns strongly indicate an inherent disagreement between the Umkehr observations and the ozonesonde profiles. The application of corrections for stratospheric aerosol effects to the Umkehr profiles reduces, but does not eliminate, a discrepancy above 32 km. It is concluded that the discrepancies are due to the constant mixing ratio assumption used in computing the residual ozone above balloon burst level and to the fair-weather bias of Umkehr observations (there are Umkehr observations at Arosa on fewer than 20% of the sonde observation days at Payerne). This sampling difference influences the results for the lower stratosphere. The study furthermore indicates that the ozone trends derived from Umkehr measurements for altitudes above about 32 km are robust for time-dependent changes in the a priori profiles at lower altitudes. Based on the results of this study, we conclude with revised recommendations as to which atmospheric layers

Relationship Between Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Heat Balance Trends in the Tropical Oceans: The Crucial Role of Surface Wind Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.; Sun, X.

2016-12-01

Multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalyses are analyzed for 1980-2015 to understand annual-mean adjustments of the surface heat balance over the tropical oceans as the climate warms. Linear trends are examined, with statistical significance evaluated. While surface heat budgets and sea surface temperatures are mutually adjusted fields, insights into the physical processes of this adjustment and the implications for temperature trends can be identified. Two second-generation reanalyses, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, agree well on the distributions and magnitudes of trends in the net heat flux from the atmosphere to the ocean. Trends in the net longwave and sensible heat fluxes are generally small, and trends in solar radiation absorbed are only influential regionally and vary among the reanalyses. The largest contribution is from latent heat flux trends. Contributions to these trends associated with surface temperature (thermal-driving), 10-m wind (dynamical-driving) and specific humidity (hydrological-driving) trends are estimated. The dynamically-driven latent heat flux dominates and explains much of the regionality of the multi-decadal heat flux trends. However, trends in the net surface heat flux alone do not match the observed SSTs trends well, indicating that the redistribution of heat within the ocean mixed layer is also important. Ocean mixed layer heat budgets in various ocean reanalyses are examined to understand this redistribution, and we again identify a crucial role for changes in the surface wind. Acceleration of the tropical easterlies is associated with strengthening of the equatorial undercurrents in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. In the Pacific, where the EUC is also shoaling, the result is enhanced warm-water advection into the central Pacific. This advective warming is superimposed on cooling due to enhanced evaporation and equatorial upwelling, which are also associated with wind trends, to determine the observed pattern of SST trends.

Global trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

1990-01-01

Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability.

PubMed

Rodell, M; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Reager, J T; Beaudoing, H K; Landerer, F W; Lo, M-H

2018-05-01

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002-2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world's water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

Observed SWE trends and climate analysis for Northwest Pacific North America: validation for future projection of SWE using the CRCM and VIC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, K. E.; Bronaugh, D.; Rodenhuis, D.

2008-12-01

Observational databases of snow water equivalent (SWE) have been collected from Alaska, western US states and the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and territories of NWT, and the Yukon. These databases were initially validated to remove inconsistencies and errors in the station records, dates or the geographic co-ordinates of the station. The cleaned data was then analysed for historical (1950 to 2006) trend using emerging techniques for trend detection based on (first of the month) estimates for January to June. Analysis of SWE showed spatial variability in the count of records across the six month time period, and this study illustrated differences between Canadian and US (or the north and south) collection. Two different data sets (one gridded and one station) were then used to analyse April 1st records, for which there was the greatest spatial spread of station records for analysis with climate information. Initial results show spatial variability (in both magnitude and direction of trend) for trend results, and climate correlations and principal components indicate different drivers of change in SWE across the western US, Canada and north to Alaska. These results will be used to validate future predictions of SWE that are being undertaken using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model for Western Northern America (CRCM) and British Columbia (VIC).

27 Years of Satellite Ozone Data: Merging of Data Records from Multiple Instruments to Observe Global Trends and Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.

2007-01-01

Satellite measurements provide a unique global view of the stratospheric ozone layer. The perspective from satellites allowed for the early mapping of the extent of the phenomenon that became known as the ozone hole. The use of the satellite data for global trends outside of the ozone hole confronts the problem of the possible drift of the calibration of the instrument. The TOMS and SBUV instruments on Nimbus 7 lasted for more than a decade. During that time, the diffuser plate used to reflect sunlight into the measurement degraded (darkened) and the instruments each had a number of events that made calibration determination difficult. Initially the TOMS data were used for global trends by adjusting the overall calibration to agree with a set of ground-based measurement stations. But this was unsatisfactory because the record was not independent of those ground measurements and problems were found in many of the ground stations by using TOMS as a transfer standard. After many years of dedicated work, the TOMS/SBUV team learned how to correct for instrument drift, remove the interfering effects of aerosols, and establish instrument-to-instrument calibrations resulting in a long-term record that can be used for accurate trend and recovery determination. The global view of the satellites allows for determination not only of temporal change in ozone, but spatial fingerprints that allow more confidence in assigning cause to observed changes.

Not Another Trend: Secondary-Level Literacy Coaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gross, Patricia A.

2010-01-01

Literacy coaching is a current trend meant to broaden instructional repertoires and student engagement. Designed for professional growth through inquiry, collaboration, and experimentation, literacy coaches offer literacy strategies to enliven student interest in all subjects. Literacy coaches meet with teachers one-on-one to discuss current…

Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição

2009-04-01

The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.

Experimental Observation of a Current-Driven Instability in a Neutral Electron-Positron Beam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warwick, J.; Dzelzainis, T.; Dieckmann, M. E.; Schumaker, W.; Doria, D.; Romagnani, L.; Poder, K.; Cole, J. M.; Alejo, A.; Yeung, M.; Krushelnick, K.; Mangles, S. P. D.; Najmudin, Z.; Reville, B.; Samarin, G. M.; Symes, D. D.; Thomas, A. G. R.; Borghesi, M.; Sarri, G.

2017-11-01

We report on the first experimental observation of a current-driven instability developing in a quasineutral matter-antimatter beam. Strong magnetic fields (≥1 T ) are measured, via means of a proton radiography technique, after the propagation of a neutral electron-positron beam through a background electron-ion plasma. The experimentally determined equipartition parameter of ɛB≈10-3 is typical of values inferred from models of astrophysical gamma-ray bursts, in which the relativistic flows are also expected to be pair dominated. The data, supported by particle-in-cell simulations and simple analytical estimates, indicate that these magnetic fields persist in the background plasma for thousands of inverse plasma frequencies. The existence of such long-lived magnetic fields can be related to analog astrophysical systems, such as those prevalent in lepton-dominated jets.

Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redd, L. T.; Bland, S. R.; Bennett, R. M.

1973-01-01

A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.

Experimental Observation of Two-Dimensional Anderson Localization with the Atomic Kicked Rotor.

PubMed

Manai, Isam; Clément, Jean-François; Chicireanu, Radu; Hainaut, Clément; Garreau, Jean Claude; Szriftgiser, Pascal; Delande, Dominique

2015-12-11

Dimension 2 is expected to be the lower critical dimension for Anderson localization in a time-reversal-invariant disordered quantum system. Using an atomic quasiperiodic kicked rotor-equivalent to a two-dimensional Anderson-like model-we experimentally study Anderson localization in dimension 2 and we observe localized wave function dynamics. We also show that the localization length depends exponentially on the disorder strength and anisotropy and is in quantitative agreement with the predictions of the self-consistent theory for the 2D Anderson localization.

Decadal Record of Satellite Carbon Monoxide Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worden, Helen; Deeter, Merritt; Frankenberg, Christian; George, Maya; Nichitiu, Florian; Worden, John; Aben, Ilse; Bowman, Kevin; Clerbaux, Cathy; Coheur, Pierre-Francois; de Laat, Jos; Warner, Juying; Drummond, James; Edwards, David; Gille, John; Hurtmans, Daniel; Ming, Luo; Martinez-Alonso, Sara; Massie, Steven; Pfister, Gabriele

2013-04-01

Atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) distributions are controlled by anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, chemical production, transport and oxidation by reaction with the hydroxyl radical (OH). Quantifying trends in CO is therefore important for understanding changes related to all of these contributions. Here we present a comprehensive record of satellite observations from 2000 through 2011 of total column CO using the available measurements from nadir-viewing thermal infrared instruments: MOPITT, AIRS, TES and IASI. We examine trends for CO in the Northern and Southern hemispheres along with regional trends for E. China, E. USA, Europe and India. Measurement and sampling methods for each of the instruments are discussed, and we show diagnostics for systematic errors in MOPITT trends. We find that all the satellite observations are consistent with a modest decreasing trend around -1%/year in total column CO over the Northern hemisphere for this time period. Decreasing trends in total CO column are observed for the United States, Europe and E. China with more than 2σ significance. For India, the trend is also decreasing, but smaller in magnitude and less significant. Decreasing trends in surface CO have also been observed from measurements in the U.S. and Europe. Although less information is available for surface CO in China, there is a decreasing trend reported for Beijing. Some of the interannual variability in the observations can be explained by global fire emissions, and there may be some evidence of the global financial crisis in late 2008 to early 2009. But the overall decrease needs further study to understand the implications for changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Experimental Observation of Two Features Unexpected from the Classical Theories of Rubber Elasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishi, Kengo; Fujii, Kenta; Chung, Ung-il; Shibayama, Mitsuhiro; Sakai, Takamasa

2017-12-01

Although the elastic modulus of a Gaussian chain network is thought to be successfully described by classical theories of rubber elasticity, such as the affine and phantom models, verification experiments are largely lacking owing to difficulties in precisely controlling of the network structure. We prepared well-defined model polymer networks experimentally, and measured the elastic modulus G for a broad range of polymer concentrations and connectivity probabilities, p . In our experiment, we observed two features that were distinct from those predicted by classical theories. First, we observed the critical behavior G ˜|p -pc|1.95 near the sol-gel transition. This scaling law is different from the prediction of classical theories, but can be explained by analogy between the electric conductivity of resistor networks and the elasticity of polymer networks. Here, pc is the sol-gel transition point. Furthermore, we found that the experimental G -p relations in the region above C* did not follow the affine or phantom theories. Instead, all the G /G0-p curves fell onto a single master curve when G was normalized by the elastic modulus at p =1 , G0. We show that the effective medium approximation for Gaussian chain networks explains this master curve.

Trends in First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Asia: Results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database

PubMed Central

Boettiger, David Charles; Kerr, Stephen; Ditangco, Rossana; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thi Thanh; Chaiwarith, Romanee; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Li, Chung Ki Patrick; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Vonthanak, Saphonn; Lee, Christopher; Van Kinh, Nguyen; Pujari, Sanjay; Wong, Wing Wai; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Zhang, Fujie; Yunihastuti, Evy; Choi, Jun Yong; Oka, Shinichi; Ng, Oon Tek; Kantipong, Pacharee; Mustafa, Mahiran; Ratanasuwan, Winai; Sohn, Annette; Law, Matthew

2014-01-01

Background Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has evolved rapidly since its beginnings. This analysis describes trends in first-line ART use in Asia and their impact on treatment outcomes. Methods Patients in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database receiving first-line ART for ≥6 months were included. Predictors of treatment failure and treatment modification were assessed. Results Data from 4662 eligible patients was analysed. Patients started ART in 2003–2006 (n = 1419), 2007–2010 (n = 2690) and 2011–2013 (n = 553). During the observation period, tenofovir, zidovudine and abacavir use largely replaced stavudine. Stavudine was prescribed to 5.8% of ART starters in 2012/13. Efavirenz use increased at the expense of nevirapine, although both continue to be used extensively (47.5% and 34.5% of patients in 2012/13, respectively). Protease inhibitor use dropped after 2004. The rate of treatment failure or modification declined over time (22.1 [95%CI 20.7–23.5] events per 100 patient/years in 2003–2006, 15.8 [14.9–16.8] in 2007–2010, and 11.6 [9.4–14.2] in 2011–2013). Adjustment for ART regimen had little impact on the temporal decline in treatment failure rates but substantially attenuated the temporal decline in rates of modification due to adverse event. In the final multivariate model, treatment modification due to adverse event was significantly predicted by earlier period of ART initiation (hazard ratio 0.52 [95%CI 0.33–0.81], p = 0.004 for 2011–2013 versus 2003–2006), older age (1.56 [1.19–2.04], p = 0.001 for ≥50 years versus <30years), female sex (1.29 [1.11–1.50], p = 0.001 versus male), positive hepatitis C status (1.33 [1.06–1.66], p = 0.013 versus negative), and ART regimen (11.36 [6.28–20.54], p<0.001 for stavudine-based regimens versus tenofovir-based). Conclusions The observed trends in first-line ART use in Asia reflect changes in drug availability, global treatment recommendations and

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

PubMed

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R 2 =0.318; p=0.014). These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study

PubMed Central

Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam

2017-01-01

Objectives We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Design Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Results Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748–0.922; p<0.001) were observed between online trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R2=0.345; p<0.001) and CDC (stationary-R2=0.318; p=0.014). Conclusions These results suggest that online trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help

Political science. Reverse-engineering censorship in China: randomized experimentation and participant observation.

PubMed

King, Gary; Pan, Jennifer; Roberts, Margaret E

2014-08-22

Existing research on the extensive Chinese censorship organization uses observational methods with well-known limitations. We conducted the first large-scale experimental study of censorship by creating accounts on numerous social media sites, randomly submitting different texts, and observing from a worldwide network of computers which texts were censored and which were not. We also supplemented interviews with confidential sources by creating our own social media site, contracting with Chinese firms to install the same censoring technologies as existing sites, and--with their software, documentation, and even customer support--reverse-engineering how it all works. Our results offer rigorous support for the recent hypothesis that criticisms of the state, its leaders, and their policies are published, whereas posts about real-world events with collective action potential are censored. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 1; Long-term Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara e.; Bosilovich, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.

Experimental Observation of a Current-Driven Instability in a Neutral Electron-Positron Beam.

PubMed

Warwick, J; Dzelzainis, T; Dieckmann, M E; Schumaker, W; Doria, D; Romagnani, L; Poder, K; Cole, J M; Alejo, A; Yeung, M; Krushelnick, K; Mangles, S P D; Najmudin, Z; Reville, B; Samarin, G M; Symes, D D; Thomas, A G R; Borghesi, M; Sarri, G

2017-11-03

We report on the first experimental observation of a current-driven instability developing in a quasineutral matter-antimatter beam. Strong magnetic fields (≥1  T) are measured, via means of a proton radiography technique, after the propagation of a neutral electron-positron beam through a background electron-ion plasma. The experimentally determined equipartition parameter of ε_{B}≈10^{-3} is typical of values inferred from models of astrophysical gamma-ray bursts, in which the relativistic flows are also expected to be pair dominated. The data, supported by particle-in-cell simulations and simple analytical estimates, indicate that these magnetic fields persist in the background plasma for thousands of inverse plasma frequencies. The existence of such long-lived magnetic fields can be related to analog astrophysical systems, such as those prevalent in lepton-dominated jets.

Experimental Observation of a Current-Driven Instability in a Neutral Electron-Positron Beam

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warwick, J.; Dzelzainis, T.; Dieckmann, M. E.

Here, we report on the first experimental observation of a current-driven instability developing in a quasineutral matter-antimatter beam. Strong magnetic fields (≥ 1T) are measured, via means of a proton radiography technique, after the propagation of a neutral electron-positron beam through a background electron-ion plasma. The experimentally determined equipartition parameter of ε B ≈ 10 -3 is typical of values inferred from models of astrophysical gamma-ray bursts, in which the relativistic flows are also expected to be pair dominated. The data, supported by particle-in-cell simulations and simple analytical estimates, indicate that these magnetic fields persist in the background plasma formore » thousands of inverse plasma frequencies. The existence of such long-lived magnetic fields can be related to analog astrophysical systems, such as those prevalent in lepton-dominated jets.« less

Experimental Observation of a Current-Driven Instability in a Neutral Electron-Positron Beam

DOE PAGES

Warwick, J.; Dzelzainis, T.; Dieckmann, M. E.; ...

2017-11-03

Here, we report on the first experimental observation of a current-driven instability developing in a quasineutral matter-antimatter beam. Strong magnetic fields (≥ 1T) are measured, via means of a proton radiography technique, after the propagation of a neutral electron-positron beam through a background electron-ion plasma. The experimentally determined equipartition parameter of ε B ≈ 10 -3 is typical of values inferred from models of astrophysical gamma-ray bursts, in which the relativistic flows are also expected to be pair dominated. The data, supported by particle-in-cell simulations and simple analytical estimates, indicate that these magnetic fields persist in the background plasma formore » thousands of inverse plasma frequencies. The existence of such long-lived magnetic fields can be related to analog astrophysical systems, such as those prevalent in lepton-dominated jets.« less

Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Takamitsu; Minobe, Shoshiro; Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis

2017-05-01

Historic observations of dissolved oxygen (O2) in the ocean are analyzed to quantify multidecadal trends and variability from 1958 to 2015. Additional quality control is applied, and the resultant oxygen anomaly field is used to quantify upper ocean O2 trends at global and hemispheric scales. A widespread negative O2 trend is beginning to emerge from the envelope of interannual variability. Ocean reanalysis data are used to evaluate relationships with changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and oxygen solubility (O2,sat). Global O2 decline is evident after the 1980s, accompanied by an increase in global OHC. The global upper ocean O2 inventory (0-1000 m) changed at the rate of -243 ± 124 T mol O2 per decade. Further, the O2 inventory is negatively correlated with the OHC (r = -0.86; 0-1000 m) and the regression coefficient of O2 to OHC is approximately -8.2 ± 0.66 nmol O2 J-1, on the same order of magnitude as the simulated O2-heat relationship typically found in ocean climate models. Variability and trends in the observed upper ocean O2 concentration are dominated by the apparent oxygen utilization component with relatively small contributions from O2,sat. This indicates that changing ocean circulation, mixing, and/or biochemical processes, rather than the direct thermally induced solubility effects, are the primary drivers for the observed O2 changes. The spatial patterns of the multidecadal trend include regions of enhanced ocean deoxygenation including the subpolar North Pacific, eastern boundary upwelling systems, and tropical oxygen minimum zones. Further studies are warranted to understand and attribute the global O2 trends and their regional expressions.

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians

PubMed Central

Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-01-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer—Olympians and supercentenarians—under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic “probabilistic barrier” limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic “barrier” forecast. PMID:25143003

Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

2018-01-01

We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

PubMed

Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

[Population trends and behavioral observations of wintering common cranes (Grus grus) in Yancheng Nature Reserve].

PubMed

Li, Zhong-Qiu; Wang, Zhi; Ge, Chen

2013-10-01

To understand the population status and behavioural features of wintering common cranes in the Yancheng Nature Reserve, two transects were established and population trends were monitored every month over five recent winters from 2008 to 2013. Wintering behaviours were also observed in order to explore the possible effects of family size and age on time budgets. Results indicated that the populations were stable with a range of 303 to 707 individuals. Negative effects of coastal developments were not found on the wintering population of common cranes, which might be related to their diets and preference for artificial wetland habitats. We found a significant effect of age on time budgets, with juveniles spending more time feeding and less time alerting, which might be related to the needs of body development and skill learning. Family size did not affect the time budgets of the cranes, which indicated that adults did not increase vigilance investment even when raising a larger family.

Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2014-08-01

Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.

A spurious warming trend in the NMME equatorial Pacific SST hindcasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua

2017-06-01

Using seasonal hindcasts of six different models participating in the North American Multimodel Ensemble project, the trend of the predicted sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific for 1982-2014 at each lead month and its temporal evolution with respect to the lead month are investigated for all individual models. Since the coupled models are initialized with the observed ocean, atmosphere, land states from observation-based reanalysis, some of them using their own data assimilation process, one would expect that the observed SST trend is reasonably well captured in their seasonal predictions. However, although the observed SST features a weak-cooling trend for the 33-year period with La Niña-like spatial pattern in the tropical central-eastern Pacific all year round, it is demonstrated that all models having a time-dependent realistic concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) display a warming trend in the equatorial Pacific that amplifies as the lead-time increases. In addition, these models' behaviors are nearly independent of the starting month of the hindcasts although the growth rates of the trend vary with the lead month. This key characteristic of the forecasted SST trend in the equatorial Pacific is also identified in the NCAR CCSM3 hindcasts that have the GHG concentration for a fixed year. This suggests that a global warming forcing may not play a significant role in generating the spurious warming trend of the coupled models' SST hindcasts in the tropical Pacific. This model SST trend in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, which is opposite to the observed one, causes a developing El Niño-like warming bias in the forecasted SST with its peak in boreal winter. Its implications for seasonal prediction are discussed.

The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tetzlaff, D.; Carey, S. K.; McNamara, J. P.; Laudon, H.; Soulsby, C.

2017-12-01

Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are pre-requisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies; predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs. We present a number of compelling examples illustrating how hydrologic process understanding has been generated through comparing hypotheses to data, and how this understanding has been essential for managing water supplies, floods, and ecosystem services today.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change.

PubMed

Yuan, Z Y; Jiao, F; Shi, X R; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-06-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.

Seeing mental states: An experimental strategy for measuring the observability of other minds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becchio, Cristina; Koul, Atesh; Ansuini, Caterina; Bertone, Cesare; Cavallo, Andrea

2018-03-01

Is it possible to perceive others' mental states? Are mental states visible in others' behavior? In contrast to the traditional view that mental states are hidden and not directly accessible to perception, in recent years a phenomenologically-motivated account of social cognition has emerged: direct social perception. However, despite numerous published articles that both defend and critique direct perception, researchers have made little progress in articulating the conditions under which direct perception of others' mental states is possible. This paper proposes an empirically anchored approach to the observability of others' mentality - not just in the weak sense of discussing relevant empirical evidence for and against the phenomenon of interest, but also, and more specifically, in the stronger sense of identifying an experimental strategy for measuring the observability of mental states and articulating the conditions under which mental states are observable. We conclude this article by reframing the problem of direct perception in terms of establishing a definable and measurable relationship between movement features and perceived mental states.

Assessment of Precipitation Trends over Europe by Comparing ERA-20C with a New Homogenized Observational GPCC Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustemeier, E.; Ziese, M.; Meyer-Christoffer, A.; Finger, P.; Schneider, U.; Becker, A.

2015-12-01

Reliable data is essential for robust climate analysis. The ERA-20C reanalysis was developed during the projects ERA-CLIM and ERA-CLIM2. These projects focus on multi-decadal reanalyses of the global climate system. To ensure data quality and provide end users with information about uncertainties in these products, the 4th work package of ERA_CLIM2 deals with the quality assessment of the products including quality control and error estimation.In doing so, the monthly totals of the ERA-20C reanalysis are compared to two corresponding Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) products; the Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 and the new HOMogenized PRecipitation Analysis of European in-situ data (HOMPRA Europe).ERA-20C reanalysis was produced based on ECMWFs IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of about 125 km. It covers the time period 1900 to 2010. Only surface observations are assimilated namely marine winds and pressure. This allows the comparison with independent, not assimilated data. The GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 7 comprises monthly land-surface precipitation from approximately 75,000 rain-gauges covering the time period 1901-2013. For this paper, the version with 1° resolution is utilized. For trend analysis, a monthly European subset of the ERA-20C reanalysis is investigated spanning the years 1951-2005. The European subset will be compared to a new homogenized GPCC data set HOMPRA Europe. The latter is based on a collective of 5373 homogenized monthly rain gauge time series, carefully chosen from the GPCC archive of precipitation data.For the spatial and temporal evaluation of ERA-20C, global scores on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales are calculated. These include contingency table scores, correlation, along with spatial scores such as the fractional skill score. Unsurprisingly regions with strongest deviations are those of data scarcity, mountainous regions with their luv and lee effects, and monsoon regions. They all exhibit

Experimental investigation of two-phase heat transfer in a porous matrix.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Reth, R.; Frost, W.

1972-01-01

One-dimensional two-phase flow transpiration cooling through porous metal is studied experimentally. The experimental data is compared with a previous one-dimensional analysis. Good agreement with calculated temperature distribution is obtained as long as the basic assumptions of the analytical model are satisfied. Deviations from the basic assumptions are caused by nonhomogeneous and oscillating flow conditions. Preliminary derivation of nondimensional parameters which characterize the stable and unstable flow conditions is given. Superheated liquid droplets observed sputtering from the heated surface indicated incomplete evaporation at heat fluxes well in access of the latent energy transport. A parameter is developed to account for the nonequilibrium thermodynamic effects. Measured and calculated pressure drops show contradicting trends which are attributed to capillary forces.

Phase transitions in mixed gas hydrates: experimental observations versus calculated data.

PubMed

Schicks, Judith M; Naumann, Rudolf; Erzinger, Jörg; Hester, Keith C; Koh, Carolyn A; Sloan, E Dendy

2006-06-15

This paper presents the phase behavior of multicomponent gas hydrate systems formed from primarily methane with small amounts of ethane and propane. Experimental conditions were typically in a pressure range between 1 and 6 MPa, and the temperature range was between 260 and 290 K. These multicomponent systems have been investigated using a variety of techniques including microscopic observations, Raman spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction. These techniques, used in combination, allowed for measurement of the hydrate structure and composition, while observing the morphology of the hydrate crystals measured. The hydrate formed immediately below the three-phase line (V-L --> V-L-H) and contained crystals that were both light and dark in appearance. The light crystals, which visually were a single solid phase, showed a spectroscopic indication for the presence of occluded free gas in the hydrate. In contrast, the dark crystals were measured to be structure II (sII) without the presence of these occluded phases. Along with hydrate measurements near the decomposition line, an unexpected transformation process was visually observed at P-T-conditions in the stability field of the hydrates. Larger crystallites transformed into a foamy solid upon cooling over this transition line (between 5 and 10 K below the decomposition temperature). Below the transition line, a mixture of sI and sII was detected. This is the first time that these multicomponent systems have been investigated at these pressure and temperature conditions using both visual and spectroscopic techniques. These techniques enabled us to observe and measure the unexpected transformation process showing coexistence of different gas hydrate phases.

Publication Trends in Model Organism Research

PubMed Central

Dietrich, Michael R.; Ankeny, Rachel A.; Chen, Patrick M.

2014-01-01

In 1990, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) gave some organisms special status as designated model organisms. This article documents publication trends for these NIH-designated model organisms over the past 40 years. We find that being designated a model organism by the NIH does not guarantee an increasing publication trend. An analysis of model and nonmodel organisms included in GENETICS since 1960 does reveal a sharp decline in the number of publications using nonmodel organisms yet no decline in the overall species diversity. We suggest that organisms with successful publication records tend to share critical characteristics, such as being well developed as standardized, experimental systems and being used by well-organized communities with good networks of exchange and methods of communication. PMID:25381363

Insight into global trends in aerosol composition from 2005 to 2015 inferred from the OMI Ultraviolet Aerosol Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammer, Melanie S.; Martin, Randall V.; Li, Chi; Torres, Omar; Manning, Max; Boys, Brian L.

2018-06-01

Observations of aerosol scattering and absorption offer valuable information about aerosol composition. We apply a simulation of the Ultraviolet Aerosol Index (UVAI), a method of detecting aerosol absorption from satellite observations, to interpret UVAI values observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) from 2005 to 2015 to understand global trends in aerosol composition. We conduct our simulation using the vector radiative transfer model VLIDORT with aerosol fields from the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. We examine the 2005-2015 trends in individual aerosol species from GEOS-Chem and apply these trends to the UVAI simulation to calculate the change in simulated UVAI due to the trends in individual aerosol species. We find that global trends in the UVAI are largely explained by trends in absorption by mineral dust, absorption by brown carbon, and scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol. Trends in absorption by mineral dust dominate the simulated UVAI trends over North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and Australia. The UVAI simulation resolves observed negative UVAI trends well over Australia, but underestimates positive UVAI trends over North Africa and Central Asia near the Aral Sea and underestimates negative UVAI trends over East Asia. We find evidence of an increasing dust source from the desiccating Aral Sea that may not be well represented by the current generation of models. Trends in absorption by brown carbon dominate the simulated UVAI trends over biomass burning regions. The UVAI simulation reproduces observed negative trends over central South America and West Africa, but underestimates observed UVAI trends over boreal forests. Trends in scattering by secondary inorganic aerosol dominate the simulated UVAI trends over the eastern United States and eastern India. The UVAI simulation slightly overestimates the observed positive UVAI trends over the eastern United States and underestimates the observed negative UVAI trends over

Trends in emerging and high risk activities

Treesearch

Robert C. White; Richard Schreyer; Kent Downing

1980-01-01

Newly emerging and high risk activities have increased markedly in the last generation, yet little is known about trends in participation. Factors such as technological innovation and creative experimentation with traditional activities appear to play a major role in the development of new activities. Christy's criteria for mass demand in recreation are used to...

A climate trend analysis of Kenya-August 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.

2010-01-01

Introduction This brief report draws from a multi-year effort by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) to monitor and map rainfall and temperature trends over the last 50 years (1960-2009) in Kenya. Observations from seventy rainfall gauges and seventeen air temperature stations were analyzed for the long rains period, corresponding to March through June (MAMJ). The data were quality controlled, converted into 1960-2009 trend estimates, and interpolated using a rigorous geo-statistical technique (kriging). Kriging produces standard error estimates, and these can be used to assess the relative spatial accuracy of the identified trends. Dividing the trends by the associated errors allows us to identify the relative certainty of our estimates (Funk and others, 2005; Verdin and others, 2005; Brown and Funk, 2008; Funk and Verdin, 2009). Assuming that the same observed trends persist, regardless of whether or not these changes are due to anthropogenic or natural cyclical causes, these results can be extended to 2025, providing critical, and heretofore missing information about the types and locations of adaptation efforts that may be required to improve food security.

Multiscale modeling of multi-decadal trends in air pollutant concentrations and their radiative properties: the role of models in an integrated observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, R.; Xing, J.; Szykman, J.; Gan, C. M.; Hogrefe, C.; Pleim, J. E.

2015-12-01

Air Pollution simulation models must address the increasing complexity arising from new model applications that treat multi-pollutant interactions across varying space and time scales. Setting and attaining lower ambient air quality standards requires an improved understanding and quantification of source attribution amongst the multiple anthropogenic and natural sources, on time scales ranging from episodic to annual and spatial scales ranging from urban to continental. Changing emission patterns over the developing regions of the world are likely to exacerbate the impacts of long-range pollutant transport on background pollutant levels, which may then impact the attainment of local air quality standards. Thus, strategies for reduction of pollution levels of surface air over a region are complicated not only by the interplay of local emissions sources and several complex physical, chemical, dynamical processes in the atmosphere, but also hemispheric background levels of pollutants. Additionally, as short-lived climate forcers, aerosols and ozone exert regionally heterogeneous radiative forcing and influence regional climate trends. EPA's coupled WRF-CMAQ modeling system is applied over a domain encompassing the northern hemisphere for the period spanning 1990-2010. This period has witnessed significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions in North America and Europe as a result of implementation of control measures and dramatic increases across Asia associated with economic and population growth, resulting in contrasting trends in air pollutant distributions and transport patterns across the northern hemisphere. Model results (trends in pollutant concentrations, optical and radiative characteristics) across the northern hemisphere are analyzed in conjunction with surface, aloft and remote sensing measurements to contrast the differing trends in air pollution and aerosol-radiation interactions in these regions over the past two decades. Given the future LEO (Trop

Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

PubMed Central

Hollister, Robert D; May, Jeremy L; Kremers, Kelseyann S; Tweedie, Craig E; Oberbauer, Steven F; Liebig, Jennifer A; Botting, Timothy F; Barrett, Robert T; Gregory, Jessica L

2015-01-01

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. PMID:26140204

Trends in College Spending: 2001-2011. A Delta Data Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desrochers, Donna M.; Hurlburt, Steven

2014-01-01

This "Trends in College Spending" update presents national-level estimates for the "Delta Cost Project" data metrics during the period 2001-11. To accelerate the release of more current trend data, however, this update includes only a brief summary of the financial patterns and trends observed during the decade 2001-11, with…

Low-Computation Strategies for Extracting CO2 Emission Trends from Surface-Level Mixing Ratio Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shusterman, A.; Kim, J.; Lieschke, K.; Newman, C.; Cohen, R. C.

2017-12-01

Global momentum is building for drastic, regulated reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decade. With this increasing regulation comes a clear need for increasingly sophisticated monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) strategies capable of enforcing and optimizing emissions-related policy, particularly as it applies to urban areas. Remote sensing and/or activity-based emission inventories can offer MRV insights for entire sectors or regions, but are not yet sophisticated enough to resolve unexpected trends in specific emitters. Urban surface monitors can offer the desired proximity to individual greenhouse gas sources, but due to the densely-packed nature of typical urban landscapes, surface observations are rarely representative of a single source. Most previous efforts to decompose these complex signals into their contributing emission processes have involved inverse atmospheric modeling techniques, which are computationally intensive and believed to depend heavily on poorly understood a priori estimates of error covariance. Here we present a number of transparent, low-computation approaches for extracting source-specific emissions estimates from signals with a variety of nearfield influences. Using observations from the first several years of the BErkeley Atmospheric CO2 Observation Network (BEACO2N), we demonstrate how to exploit strategic pairings of monitoring "nodes," anomalous wind conditions, and well-understood temporal variations to hone in on specific CO2 sources of interest. When evaluated against conventional, activity-based bottom-up emission inventories, these strategies are seen to generate quantitatively rigorous emission estimates. With continued application as the BEACO2N data set grows in time and space, these approaches offer a promising avenue for optimizing greenhouse gas mitigation strategies into the future.

Why the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind changes trend in the mid -1990s?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, P.

2016-12-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric zonal and meridional wind in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis data especially monthly mean of geopotential from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role..

Temporal trends and sources of variation in carbon flux from coarse woody debris in experimental forest canopy openings

Treesearch

J. A. Forrester; D. J. Mladenoff; A. W. D' Amato; S. Fraver; Daniel Lindner; N. J. Brazee; M. K. Clayton; S. T. Gower

2015-01-01

Pulses of respiration from coarse woody debris (CWD) have been observed immediately following canopy disturbances, but it is unclear how long these pulses are sustained. Several factors are known to influence carbon flux rates from CWD, but few studies have evaluated more than temperature and moisture. We experimentally manipulated forest structure in a second-growth...

Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians.

PubMed

Antero-Jacquemin, Juliana da Silva; Berthelot, Geoffroy; Marck, Adrien; Noirez, Philippe; Latouche, Aurélien; Toussaint, Jean-François

2015-08-01

Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Experimental measurement of interparticle acoustic radiation force in the Rayleigh limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohapatra, Abhishek Ray; Sepehrirahnama, Shahrokh; Lim, Kian-Meng

2018-05-01

Acoustophoresis is a form of contact-free particle manipulation in microfluidic devices. The precision of manipulation can be enhanced with better understanding of the acoustic radiation force. In this paper we present the measurements of interparticle radiation force between a pair of polystyrene beads in the Rayleigh limit. The study is conducted for three different sizes of beads and the experimental results are of the same order of magnitude when compared with theoretical predictions. However, the experimental values are larger than the theoretical values. The trend of a decrease in the magnitude of the interparticle radiation force with decreasing particle size and increasing center-to-center distance between the particles is also observed experimentally. The experiments are conducted in the specific scenario where the pair of beads are in close proximity, but not in contact with each other, and the beads are approaching the pressure nodal plane with the center-to-center line aligned perpendicular to the incident wave. This scenario minimizes the presence of the primary radiation force, allowing accurate measurement of the interparticle force. The attractive nature of the interparticle force is observed, consistent with theoretical predictions.

Rater Drift and Time Trends in Classroom Observations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.

2013-01-01

Classroom observation protocols, in which observers rate multiple dimensions of teaching according to established protocols (either live in the classroom, or post-hoc from lesson videos), are increasingly being used in both research and policy contexts. However, scores generated from these protocols have many sources of error. Day to day variation…

Detection of carbon monoxide trends in the presence of interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strode, Sarah A.; Pawson, Steven

2013-11-01

in fossil fuel emissions are a major driver of changes in atmospheric CO, but detection of trends in CO from anthropogenic sources is complicated by the presence of large interannual variability (IAV) in biomass burning. We use a multiyear model simulation of CO with year-specific biomass burning to predict the number of years needed to detect the impact of changes in Asian anthropogenic emissions on downwind regions. Our study includes two cases for changing anthropogenic emissions: a stepwise change of 15% and a linear trend of 3% yr-1. We first examine how well the model reproduces the observed IAV of CO over the North Pacific, since this variability impacts the time needed to detect significant anthropogenic trends. The modeled IAV over the North Pacific correlates well with that seen from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument but underestimates the magnitude of the variability. The model predicts that a 3% yr-1 trend in Asian anthropogenic emissions would lead to a statistically significant trend in CO surface concentration in the western United States within 12 years, and accounting for Siberian boreal biomass-burning emissions greatly reduces the number of years needed for trend detection. Combining the modeled trend with the observed MOPITT variability at 500 hPa, we estimate that the 3% yr-1 trend could be detectable in satellite observations over Asia in approximately a decade. Our predicted timescales for trend detection highlight the importance of long-term measurements of CO from satellites.

Pot binding as a variable confounding plant phenotype: theoretical derivation and experimental observations.

PubMed

Sinclair, Thomas R; Manandhar, Anju; Shekoofa, Avat; Rosas-Anderson, Pablo; Bagherzadi, Laleh; Schoppach, Remy; Sadok, Walid; Rufty, Thomas W

2017-04-01

Theoretical derivation predicted growth retardation due to pot water limitations, i.e., pot binding. Experimental observations were consistent with these limitations. Combined, these results indicate a need for caution in high-throughput screening and phenotyping. Pot experiments are a mainstay in many plant studies, including the current emphasis on developing high-throughput, phenotyping systems. Pot studies can be vulnerable to decreased physiological activity of the plants particularly when pot volume is small, i.e., "pot binding". It is necessary to understand the conditions under which pot binding may exist to avoid the confounding influence of pot binding in interpreting experimental results. In this paper, a derivation is offered that gives well-defined conditions for the occurrence of pot binding based on restricted water availability. These results showed that not only are pot volume and plant size important variables, but the potting media is critical. Artificial potting mixtures used in many studies, including many high-throughput phenotyping systems, are particularly susceptible to the confounding influences of pot binding. Experimental studies for several crop species are presented that clearly show the existence of thresholds of plant leaf area at which various pot sizes and potting media result in the induction of pot binding even though there may be no immediate, visual plant symptoms. The derivation and experimental results showed that pot binding can readily occur in plant experiments if care is not given to have sufficiently large pots, suitable potting media, and maintenance of pot water status. Clear guidelines are provided for avoiding the confounding effects of water-limited pot binding in studying plant phenotype.

Trends in the Information Industry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hogan, Thomas H.

1987-01-01

The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

[Observation of antiarrhythmic effects of Cinnamomum migao H. W. Li on experimental arrhythmia].

PubMed

Sui, Y; Qiu, D; Xie, C; Chen, K

1998-08-01

To investigate the effects of Cinnamomum migao on experimental arrhythmia. Arrhythmic models of mice, rabbits, guinea pigs and rats were built using chloroform(Chl), adrenalin(Adr), strophanthin-K (Spt-K) and barium chloride (BaCl2). The affected animals were divided randomly into three groups: control group, Cinnamomum migao (CV-3) group and mexiletine (MXL) group, so as to observe and compare the antiarrhythmic effects. CV-3 could reduce the incidence of ventricular fibrillation caused by ch1 in mice and the ventricular tachycardia induced by Adr in rabbits, delay the onset time of this arrhythmia, increase the arrhythmic doses of Spt-K in guinea pigs, reduce the incidence of some arrhythmia caused by BaCl2 in rats and slow down their heart rate. CV-3 has obvious antiarrhythmic effects on experimental arrhythmia. The mechanism of these effects is probably related to the arrest of the intraflow of Na+, Ca2+ in the cardiac cells and the depression of their cardiac autoarrhythmicity and conductivity.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chanin, M.-L.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Gaffen, D.; Gelman, M.; Keckhut, P.; Koshelkov, Y.; Labitzke, K.; Lin, J.-J. R.

1999-01-01

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of droughts?

DOE PAGES

Nasrollahi, Nasrin; AghaKouchak, Amir; Cheng, Linyin; ...

2015-04-26

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variabilitymore » in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. As a result, pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models.« less

Trend analysis of tropospheric NO2 column density over East Asia during 2000-2010: multi-satellite observations and model simulations with the updated REAS emission inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itahashi, S.; Uno, I.; Irie, H.; Kurokawa, J.; Ohara, T.

2013-04-01

Satellite observations of the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) are closely correlated to surface NOx emissions and can thus be used to estimate the latter. In this study, the NO2 VCDs simulated by a regional chemical transport model with data from the updated Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2.1 were validated by comparison with multi-satellite observations (GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2, and OMI) between 2000 and 2010. Rapid growth in NO2 VCD driven by expansion of anthropogenic NOx emissions was revealed above the central eastern China region, except during the economic downturn. In contrast, slightly decreasing trends were captured above Japan. The modeled NO2 VCDs using the updated REAS emissions reasonably reproduced the annual trends observed by multi-satellites, suggesting that the NOx emissions growth rate estimated by the updated inventory is robust. On the basis of the close linear relationship of modeled NO2 VCD, observed NO2 VCD, and anthropogenic NOx emissions, the NOx emissions in 2009 and 2010 were estimated. It was estimated that the NOx emissions from anthropogenic sources in China beyond doubled between 2000 and 2010, reflecting the strong growth of anthropogenic emissions in China with the rapid recovery from the economic downturn during late 2008 and mid-2009.

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Rip current evidence by hydrodynamic simulations, bathymetric surveys and UAV observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benassai, Guido; Aucelli, Pietro; Budillon, Giorgio; De Stefano, Massimo; Di Luccio, Diana; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Montella, Raffaele; Mucerino, Luigi; Sica, Mario; Pennetta, Micla

2017-09-01

The prediction of the formation, spacing and location of rip currents is a scientific challenge that can be achieved by means of different complementary methods. In this paper the analysis of numerical and experimental data, including RPAS (remotely piloted aircraft systems) observations, allowed us to detect the presence of rip currents and rip channels at the mouth of Sele River, in the Gulf of Salerno, southern Italy. The dataset used to analyze these phenomena consisted of two different bathymetric surveys, a detailed sediment analysis and a set of high-resolution wave numerical simulations, completed with Google EarthTM images and RPAS observations. The grain size trend analysis and the numerical simulations allowed us to identify the rip current occurrence, forced by topographically constrained channels incised on the seabed, which were compared with observations.

Velocity changes at Volcán de Colima: Seismic and Experimental observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, Oliver; Lavallée, Yan; De Angelis, Silvio; Varley, Nick; Reyes-Dávila, Gabriel; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raúl; Hornby, Adrian; Wall, Richard; Kendrick, Jackie

2016-04-01

Immediately prior to dome-building eruptions, volcano-seismic swarms are a direct consequence of strain localisation in the ascending magma. A deformation mechanism map of magma subjected to strain localisation will help develop accurate numerical models, which, coupled to an understanding of the mechanics driving monitored geophysical signals prior to lava eruption, will enhance forecasts. Here we present how seismic data from Volcán de Colima, Mexico, is combined with experimental work to give insights into fracturing in and around magma. Volcán de Colima is a dome-forming volcano that has been almost-continuously erupting since November 1998. We use coda-wave interferometry to quantify small changes in seismic velocity structure between pairs of similar earthquakes, employing waveforms from clusters of repeating earthquakes. The changes in all pairs of events were then used together to create a continuous function of velocity change at all stations within 7 km of the volcano from October to December 1998. We complement our seismic data with acoustic emission data from tensional experiments using samples collected at Volcán de Colima. Decreases in velocity and frequency reflect changes in the sample properties prior to failure. By comparing experimental and seismic observations, we may place constraints on the conditions of the natural seismogenic processes. Using a combination of field and experimental data promises a greater understanding of the processes affecting the rise of magma during an eruption. This will help with the challenge of forecasting and hazard mitigation during dome-forming eruptions worldwide.

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change

PubMed Central

Yuan, ZY; Jiao, F; Shi, XR; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-01-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23255.001 PMID:28570219

Trends in characteristics of daily rainfall in Northern Iberia: Is the NAO signal behind the observed variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saez de Cámara, E.; Gangoiti, G.; Alonso, L.; Iza, J.

2012-04-01

A trend analysis of intensity and frequency of daily precipitation over Northern Iberia (NIB), with a primary focus on extreme events, is presented. It is based on 14 NOAA-NCDC daily records covering the last 35 years (1973-2007) plus two centenarian databases sited in eastern NIB: San Sebastián (1929-2007) (daily resolution) and Bilbao (1857-2007) (monthly resolution). It is the first time that this interfacial region between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean has been studied with such a density of monitoring stations. Spatial and temporal characteristics and changes in rainfall's distribution have been analyzed using the suite of indices developed and recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). They include annual and seasonal accumulated precipitation, number of dry and rainy days, and mean precipitation per rainy day, among others. The observed trends have been tested for statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall's non-parametric test. Additionally, links between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the precipitation in the aforementioned region have been explored. The analysis shows a significant tendency towards less intensive rainy days for the whole region together with a decreasing trend in the number of wet days for the Central NIB. The consequence is a decline of total rainfall, statistically significant in Central and Eastern NIB. The evolution to drier conditions may be seen in both annual and seasonal indices. Conversely, strong regional differences have been found in the response to the NAO signal: whereas the rainfall decrease in the Western NIB might be associated to the dominance of a positive mode of the NAO during the last decades, the lack of correlation between the NAO signal and the observed precipitation in the stations with significant decreases rises an important argument against a direct association. Using the global gridded 6-hourly NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data (1979-2010) we

Experimental observation of chimera and cluster states in a minimal globally coupled network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Joseph D.; Bansal, Kanika; Murphy, Thomas E.; Roy, Rajarshi

2016-09-01

A "chimera state" is a dynamical pattern that occurs in a network of coupled identical oscillators when the symmetry of the oscillator population is broken into synchronous and asynchronous parts. We report the experimental observation of chimera and cluster states in a network of four globally coupled chaotic opto-electronic oscillators. This is the minimal network that can support chimera states, and our study provides new insight into the fundamental mechanisms underlying their formation. We use a unified approach to determine the stability of all the observed partially synchronous patterns, highlighting the close relationship between chimera and cluster states as belonging to the broader phenomenon of partial synchronization. Our approach is general in terms of network size and connectivity. We also find that chimera states often appear in regions of multistability between global, cluster, and desynchronized states.

Experimental observation of chimera and cluster states in a minimal globally coupled network

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hart, Joseph D.; Department of Physics, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742; Bansal, Kanika

A “chimera state” is a dynamical pattern that occurs in a network of coupled identical oscillators when the symmetry of the oscillator population is broken into synchronous and asynchronous parts. We report the experimental observation of chimera and cluster states in a network of four globally coupled chaotic opto-electronic oscillators. This is the minimal network that can support chimera states, and our study provides new insight into the fundamental mechanisms underlying their formation. We use a unified approach to determine the stability of all the observed partially synchronous patterns, highlighting the close relationship between chimera and cluster states as belongingmore » to the broader phenomenon of partial synchronization. Our approach is general in terms of network size and connectivity. We also find that chimera states often appear in regions of multistability between global, cluster, and desynchronized states.« less

From experimental zoology to big data: Observation and integration in the study of animal development.

PubMed

Bolker, Jessica; Brauckmann, Sabine

2015-06-01

The founding of the Journal of Experimental Zoology in 1904 was inspired by a widespread turn toward experimental biology in the 19th century. The founding editors sought to promote experimental, laboratory-based approaches, particularly in developmental biology. This agenda raised key practical and epistemological questions about how and where to study development: Does the environment matter? How do we know that a cell or embryo isolated to facilitate observation reveals normal developmental processes? How can we integrate descriptive and experimental data? R.G. Harrison, the journal's first editor, grappled with these questions in justifying his use of cell culture to study neural patterning. Others confronted them in different contexts: for example, F.B. Sumner insisted on the primacy of fieldwork in his studies on adaptation, but also performed breeding experiments using wild-collected animals. The work of Harrison, Sumner, and other early contributors exemplified both the power of new techniques, and the meticulous explanation of practice and epistemology that was marshaled to promote experimental approaches. A century later, experimentation is widely viewed as the standard way to study development; yet at the same time, cutting-edge "big data" projects are essentially descriptive, closer to natural history than to the approaches championed by Harrison et al. Thus, the original questions about how and where we can best learn about development are still with us. Examining their history can inform current efforts to incorporate data from experiment and description, lab and field, and a broad range of organisms and disciplines, into an integrated understanding of animal development. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

PubMed

Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

2017-02-01

Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global

External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Zelinka, Mark; Klein, Stephen A.; Bonfils, Celine; Caldwell, Peter; Doutriaux, Charles; Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.

2015-01-01

Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

Criticality in conserved dynamical systems: experimental observation vs. exact properties.

PubMed

Marković, Dimitrije; Gros, Claudius; Schuelein, André

2013-03-01

Conserved dynamical systems are generally considered to be critical. We study a class of critical routing models, equivalent to random maps, which can be solved rigorously in the thermodynamic limit. The information flow is conserved for these routing models and governed by cyclic attractors. We consider two classes of information flow, Markovian routing without memory and vertex routing involving a one-step routing memory. Investigating the respective cycle length distributions for complete graphs, we find log corrections to power-law scaling for the mean cycle length, as a function of the number of vertices, and a sub-polynomial growth for the overall number of cycles. When observing experimentally a real-world dynamical system one normally samples stochastically its phase space. The number and the length of the attractors are then weighted by the size of their respective basins of attraction. This situation is equivalent, for theory studies, to "on the fly" generation of the dynamical transition probabilities. For the case of vertex routing models, we find in this case power law scaling for the weighted average length of attractors, for both conserved routing models. These results show that the critical dynamical systems are generically not scale-invariant but may show power-law scaling when sampled stochastically. It is hence important to distinguish between intrinsic properties of a critical dynamical system and its behavior that one would observe when randomly probing its phase space.

Water-quality trends in the nation's rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Alexander, R.B.; Wolman, M.G.

1987-01-01

Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U.S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.Water-quality records from two nationwide sampling networks now permit nationally consistent analysis of long-term water-quality trends at more than 300 locations on major U. S. rivers. Observed trends in 24 measures of water quality for the period from 1974 to 1981 provide new insight into changes in stream quality that occurred during a time of major changes in both terrestrial and atmospheric influences on surface waters. Particularly noteworthy are widespread decreases in fecal bacteria and lead concentrations and widespread increases in nitrate, chloride, arsenic, and cadmium concentrations. Recorded increases in municipal waste treatment, use of salt on highways, and nitrogen fertilizer application, along with decreases in leaded gasoline consumption and regionally variable trends in coal production and combustion during the period appear to be reflected in water-quality changes.

Health Inequalities: Trends, Progress, and Policy

PubMed Central

Bleich, Sara N.; Jarlenski, Marian P.; Bell, Caryn N.; LaVeist, Thomas A.

2013-01-01

Health inequalities, which have been well documented for decades, have more recently become policy targets in developed countries. This review describes time trends in health inequalities (by sex, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status), commitments to reduce health inequalities, and progress made to eliminate health inequalities in the United States, United Kingdom, and other OECD countries. Time-trend data in the United States indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some health indicators, such as life expectancy, but a widening of the gap in others, such as diabetes prevalence. Similarly, time-trend data in the United Kingdom indicate a narrowing of the gap between the best- and worst-off groups in some indicators, such as hypertension prevalence, whereas the gap between social classes has increased for life expectancy. More research and better methods are needed to measure precisely the relationships between stated policy goals and observed trends in health inequalities. PMID:22224876

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

Assessment of Quercus flowering trends in NW Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jato, V.; Rodríguez-Rajo, F. J.; Fernandez-González, M.; Aira, M. J.

2015-05-01

This paper sought to chart airborne Quercus pollen counts over the last 20 years in the region of Galicia (NW Spain) with a view to detecting the possible influence of climate change on the Quercus airborne pollen season (APS). Pollen data from Ourense, Santiago de Compostela, Vigo and Lugo were used. The Quercus airborne pollen season was characterized in terms of the following parameters: pollen season start and end dates, peak pollen count, pollen season length and pollen index. Several methods, dates and threshold temperatures for determining the chill and heat requirements needed to trigger flowering were applied. A diverse APS onset timing sequence was observed for the four cities as Quercus flowers few days in advance in Vigo. The variations observed could be related to differences in the meteorological conditions or the thermal requirements needed for flowering. Thermal requirements differed depending on local climate conditions in the study cities: the lowest values for chilling accumulation were recorded in Vigo and the highest in Lugo, whereas the lowest heat accumulation was achieved in Vigo. Differences in APS trends between cities may reflect variations in weather-related trends. A significant trend towards rising Quercus pollen indices and higher maximum daily mean pollen counts was observed in Ourense, linked to the more marked temperature increase across southern Galicia. A non-uniform trend towards increased temperatures was noted over the study period, particularly in late summer and early autumn in all four study cities. Additionally, an increase in spring temperatures was observed in south-western Galicia.

Direct experimental observation of mesoscopic fluorous domains in fluorinated room temperature ionic liquids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo Celso, F.; Yoshida, Y.; Castiglione, F.

Fluorinated room temperature ionic liquids (FRTILs) represent a class of solvent media that are attracting great attention due to their IL-specific properties as well as features stemming from their fluorous nature. Medium-to-long fluorous tails constitute a well-defined apolar moiety in the otherwise polar environment. Similarly to the case of alkyl tails, such chains are expected to result in the formation of self-assembled fluorous domains. So far, however, no direct experimental observation has been made of the existence of such structural heterogeneities on the nm scale. We report here the first experimental evidence of the existence of mesoscopic spatial segregation ofmore » fluorinated domains, on the basis of highly complementary X-ray and neutron scattering data sets (highlighting the importance of the latter probe) and NMR spectroscopy. Data are interpreted using atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, emphasizing the existence of a self-assembly mechanism that delivers segregated fluorous domains, where preferential solubilisation of fluorinated compounds can occur, thus paving the way for several smart applications.« less

Impact of a Dutch urban regeneration programme on mental health trends: a quasi-experimental study.

PubMed

Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Droomers, Mariël; Kramer, Daniëlle; Bruggink, Jan-Willem; van Oers, Hans; Kunst, Anton E; Stronks, Karien

2016-10-01

This paper aims to assess the mental health impact of an urban regeneration programme implemented from 2008 onwards in the 40 most deprived districts in the Netherlands. Interventions varied from improvements in the built environment to activities promoting social cohesion. We accessed repeated cross-sectional data from the annual Health Interview Survey, for the period 2004-2011 among adults (n target districts=1445, n rest of the Netherlands=44 795). We used multilevel logistic regression models to compare the development of mental health in the target districts with the rest of the Netherlands and with comparably deprived districts. Results were presented as 'slope estimates' with corresponding 95% CIs. Finally, we analysed the trends by gender and by the intensity of the programme. The trend change in mental health between the intervention and preintervention period was approximately the same in the target districts as in broadly comparably deprived control districts (Δ slope 0.06 (-0.08 to 0.20)). However, among women, a tendency was found towards more positive trend changes in the target districts compared with control districts (Δ slope 0.17 (-0.01 to 0.34)). Those districts that implemented an intensive programme experienced an improvement in mental health, while residents of the comparably deprived control districts experienced a deterioration, resulting in a statistically significantly more positive trend change between the preintervention and intervention period in those target districts (Δ slope 0.19 (0.01 to 0.38)). Implementing an urban regeneration programme with a wide range of intensive interventions may be effective in promoting good mental health. Further research is required to examine which mix of interventions is needed for the programme to be effective. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Observed and modeled seasonal trends in dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in a mining-impacted stream.

PubMed

Butler, Barbara A; Ranville, James F; Ross, Philippe E

2008-06-01

North Fork Clear Creek (NFCC) in Colorado, an acid-mine drainage (AMD) impacted stream, was chosen to examine the distribution of dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in the water column, with respect to seasonal hydrologic controls. NFCC is a high-gradient stream with discharge directly related to snowmelt and strong seasonal storms. Additionally, conditions in the stream cause rapid precipitation of large amounts of hydrous iron oxides (HFO) that sequester metals. Because AMD-impacted systems are complex, geochemical modeling may assist with predictions and/or confirmations of processes occurring in these environments. This research used Visual-MINTEQ to determine if field data collected over a two and one-half year study would be well represented by modeling with a currently existing model, while limiting the number of processes modeled and without modifications to the existing model's parameters. Observed distributions between dissolved and particulate phases in the water column varied greatly among the metals, with average dissolved fractions being >90% for Mn, approximately 75% for Zn, approximately 30% for Cu, and <10% for Fe. A strong seasonal trend was observed for the metals predominantly in the dissolved phase (Mn and Zn), with increasing concentrations during base-flow conditions and decreasing concentrations during spring-runoff. This trend was less obvious for Cu and Fe. Within hydrologic seasons, storm events significantly influenced in-stream metals concentrations. The most simplified modeling, using solely sorption to HFO, gave predicted percentage particulate Cu results for most samples to within a factor of two of the measured values, but modeling data were biased toward over-prediction. About one-half of the percentage particulate Zn data comparisons fell within a factor of two, with the remaining data being under-predicted. Slightly more complex modeling, which included dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a solution phase ligand

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

2014-05-01

Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative

Experimental observation of Bethe strings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhe; Wu, Jianda; Yang, Wang; Bera, Anup Kumar; Kamenskyi, Dmytro; Islam, A. T. M. Nazmul; Xu, Shenglong; Law, Joseph Matthew; Lake, Bella; Wu, Congjun; Loidl, Alois

2018-02-01

Almost a century ago, string states—complex bound states of magnetic excitations—were predicted to exist in one-dimensional quantum magnets. However, despite many theoretical studies, the experimental realization and identification of string states in a condensed-matter system have yet to be achieved. Here we use high-resolution terahertz spectroscopy to resolve string states in the antiferromagnetic Heisenberg-Ising chain SrCo2V2O8 in strong longitudinal magnetic fields. In the field-induced quantum-critical regime, we identify strings and fractional magnetic excitations that are accurately described by the Bethe ansatz. Close to quantum criticality, the string excitations govern the quantum spin dynamics, whereas the fractional excitations, which are dominant at low energies, reflect the antiferromagnetic quantum fluctuations. Today, Bethe’s result is important not only in the field of quantum magnetism but also more broadly, including in the study of cold atoms and in string theory; hence, we anticipate that our work will shed light on the study of complex many-body systems in general.

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Polarized Light Scanning Cryomacroscopy, Part II: Thermal Modeling and Analysis of Experimental Observations

PubMed Central

Feig, Justin S.G.; Solanki, Prem K.; Eisenberg, David P.; Rabin, Yoed

2016-01-01

This study aims at developing thermal analysis tools and explaining experimental observations made by means of polarized-light cryomacroscopy (Part I). Thermal modeling is based on finite elements analysis (FEA), where two model parameters are extracted from thermal measurements: (i) the overall heat transfer coefficient between the cuvette and the cooling chamber, and (ii) the effective thermal conductivity within the cryoprotective agent (CPA) at the upper part of the cryogenic temperature range. The effective thermal conductivity takes into account enhanced heat transfer due to convection currents within the CPA, creating the so-called Bénard cells. Comparison of experimental results with simulation data indicates that the uncertainty in simulations due to the propagation of uncertainty in measured physical properties exceeds the uncertainty in experimental measurements, which validates the modeling approach. It is shown in this study that while a cavity may form in the upper-center portion of the vitrified CPA, it has very little effect on estimating the temperature distribution within the domain. This cavity is driven by thermal contraction of the CPA, with the upper-center of the domain transitioning to glass last. Finally, it is demonstrated in this study that additional stresses may develop within the glass transition temperature range due to nonlinear behavior of the thermal expansion coefficient. This effect is reported here for the first time in the context of cryobiology, using the capabilities of polarized-light cryomacroscopy. PMID:27343139

Polarized light scanning cryomacroscopy, part II: Thermal modeling and analysis of experimental observations.

PubMed

Feig, Justin S G; Solanki, Prem K; Eisenberg, David P; Rabin, Yoed

2016-10-01

This study aims at developing thermal analysis tools and explaining experimental observations made by means of polarized-light cryomacroscopy (Part I). Thermal modeling is based on finite elements analysis (FEA), where two model parameters are extracted from thermal measurements: (i) the overall heat transfer coefficient between the cuvette and the cooling chamber, and (ii) the effective thermal conductivity within the cryoprotective agent (CPA) at the upper part of the cryogenic temperature range. The effective thermal conductivity takes into account enhanced heat transfer due to convection currents within the CPA, creating the so-called Bénard cells. Comparison of experimental results with simulation data indicates that the uncertainty in simulations due to the propagation of uncertainty in measured physical properties exceeds the uncertainty in experimental measurements, which validates the modeling approach. It is shown in this study that while a cavity may form in the upper-center portion of the vitrified CPA, it has very little effect on estimating the temperature distribution within the domain. This cavity is driven by thermal contraction of the CPA, with the upper-center of the domain transitioning to glass last. Finally, it is demonstrated in this study that additional stresses may develop within the glass transition temperature range due to nonlinear behavior of the thermal expansion coefficient. This effect is reported here for the first time in the context of cryobiology, using the capabilities of polarized-light cryomacroscopy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Numerical modeling of experimental observations on gas formation and multi-phase flow of carbon dioxide in subsurface formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.; Dash, Z.; Sakaki, T.; Plampin, M. R.; Lassen, R. N.; Illangasekare, T. H.; Zyvoloski, G.

2011-12-01

One of the concerns related to geologic CO2 sequestration is potential leakage of CO2 and its subsequent migration to shallow groundwater resources leading to geochemical impacts. Developing approaches to monitor CO2 migration in shallow aquifer and mitigate leakage impacts will require improving our understanding of gas phase formation and multi-phase flow subsequent to CO2 leakage in shallow aquifers. We are utilizing an integrated approach combining laboratory experiments and numerical simulations to characterize the multi-phase flow of CO2 in shallow aquifers. The laboratory experiments involve a series of highly controlled experiments in which CO2 dissolved water is injected in homogeneous and heterogeneous soil columns and tanks. The experimental results are used to study the effects of soil properties, temperature, pressure gradients and heterogeneities on gas formation and migration. We utilize the Finite Element Heat and Mass (FEHM) simulator (Zyvoloski et al, 2010) to numerically model the experimental results. The numerical models capture the physics of CO2 exsolution, multi-phase fluid flow as well as sand heterogeneity. Experimental observations of pressure, temperature and gas saturations are used to develop and constrain conceptual models for CO2 gas-phase formation and multi-phase CO2 flow in porous media. This talk will provide details of development of conceptual models based on experimental observation, development of numerical models for laboratory experiments and modelling results.

Experimental observation of acoustic sub-harmonic diffraction by a grating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Jingfei, E-mail: benjamin.jf.liu@gatech.edu; Declercq, Nico F., E-mail: declercqdepatin@gatech.edu

2014-06-28

A diffraction grating is a spatial filter causing sound waves or optical waves to reflect in directions determined by the frequency of the waves and the period of the grating. The classical grating equation is the governing principle that has successfully described the diffraction phenomena caused by gratings. However, in this work, we show experimental observation of the so-called sub-harmonic diffraction in acoustics that cannot be explained by the classical grating equation. Experiments indicate two physical phenomena causing the effect: internal scattering effects within the corrugation causing a phase shift and nonlinear acoustic effects generating new frequencies. This discovery expandsmore » our current understanding of the diffraction phenomenon, and it also makes it possible to better design spatial diffraction spectra, such as a rainbow effect in optics with a more complicated color spectrum than a traditional rainbow. The discovery reveals also a possibly new technique to study nonlinear acoustics by exploitation of the natural spatial filtering effect inherent to an acoustic diffraction grating.« less

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-07-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. The derived trends were validated for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail. Overall, positive trends in annual streamflow appear to reflect the marked wetting trends of the winter months, whereas negative annual trends result primarily from a widespread decrease in streamflow in spring and summer months, consistent with a decrease in summer low flow in large parts of Europe. High flow appears to have increased in rain-dominated hydrological regimes, whereas an inconsistent or decreasing signal was found in snow-dominated regimes. The different models agreed on the predominant continental-scale pattern of trends, but in some areas disagreed on the magnitude and even the direction of trends, particularly in transition zones between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing observed trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and

Is there any trend change in wind speed in the mid- 1990s in the stratosphere?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krizan, Peter

2017-04-01

This poster tries to explain the reasons for trend change of the stratospheric wind speed in the mid-1990s. In the areas of negative (positive) wind speed trend before 1995 the positive (negative) trend is observed after this point Similar change is observed also for total ozone where we observe negative trend before 1995 and positive one after. We use MERRA reanalysis monthly means of the geopotential height from January to March. We suppose the position and strength of polar vortex and Aleutian high plays here very important role.

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

PubMed

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

2012-03-19

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Julie Rowland

2015-01-01

For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

Photonic crystals possessing multiple Weyl points and the experimental observation of robust surface states

PubMed Central

Chen, Wen-Jie; Xiao, Meng; Chan, C. T.

2016-01-01

Weyl points, as monopoles of Berry curvature in momentum space, have captured much attention recently in various branches of physics. Realizing topological materials that exhibit such nodal points is challenging and indeed, Weyl points have been found experimentally in transition metal arsenide and phosphide and gyroid photonic crystal whose structure is complex. If realizing even the simplest type of single Weyl nodes with a topological charge of 1 is difficult, then making a real crystal carrying higher topological charges may seem more challenging. Here we design, and fabricate using planar fabrication technology, a photonic crystal possessing single Weyl points (including type-II nodes) and multiple Weyl points with topological charges of 2 and 3. We characterize this photonic crystal and find nontrivial 2D bulk band gaps for a fixed kz and the associated surface modes. The robustness of these surface states against kz-preserving scattering is experimentally observed for the first time. PMID:27703140

Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

PubMed

Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

2017-11-01

Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Observation of Weyl points

Science.gov Websites

copolymers, liquid crystals. Experimental observation of Weyl points First public annoucement on 11 Feburary Vishwanath from University of California, Berkeley. "Experimental Observation of Weyl Semimetals" ; Published by Science on 16 July, 2015. "Experimental observation of Weyl points" Featured on the

Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

2013-01-01

Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.

2009-12-01

Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.

A New Experimental Method Assessing Attitudes toward Adolescent Dating and Sibling Violence Using Observations of Violent Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reese-Weber, Marla

2008-01-01

The present study provides experimental data comparing emerging adults' attitudes toward dating and sibling violence in adolescence using a new methodology in which participants observe a violent interaction between adolescents. The reported amount of violence experienced in dating and sibling relationships among emerging adults is also compared.…

Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

Understanding the effect of side groups in ionic liquids on carbon-capture properties: a combined experimental and theoretical effort

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Fangyong; Lartey, Michael; Damodaran, Krishnan

2013-01-01

Ionic liquids are an emerging class of materials with applications in a variety of fields. Steady progress has been made in the creation of ionic liquids tailored to specific applications. However, the understanding of the underlying structure–property relationships has been slower to develop. As a step in the effort to alleviate this deficiency, the influence of side groups on ionic liquid properties has been studied through an integrated approach utilizing synthesis, experimental determination of properties, and simulation techniques. To achieve this goal, a classical force field in the framework of OPLS/Amber force fields has been developed to predict ionic liquidmore » properties accurately. Cu(I)-catalyzed click chemistry was employed to synthesize triazolium-based ionic liquids with diverse side groups. Values of densities were predicted within 3% of experimental values, whereas self-diffusion coefficients were underestimated by about an order of magnitude though the trends were in excellent agreement, the activation energy calculated in simulation correlates well with experimental values. The predicted Henry coefficient for CO{sub 2} solubility reproduced the experimentally observed trends. This study highlights the importance of integrating experimental and computational approaches in property prediction and materials development, which is not only useful in the development of ionic liquids for CO{sub 2} capture but has application in many technological fields.« less

Understanding the effect of side groups in ionic liquids on carbon-capture properties: a combined experimental and theoretical effort

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Fangyong; Lartey, Michael; Damodaran, Krishnan

Ionic liquids are an emerging class of materials with applications in a variety of fields. Steady progress has been made in the creation of ionic liquids tailored to specific applications. However, the understanding of the underlying structure–property relationships has been slower to develop. As a step in the effort to alleviate this deficiency, the influence of side groups on ionic liquid properties has been studied through an integrated approach utilizing synthesis, experimental determination of properties, and simulation techniques. To achieve this goal, a classical force field in the framework of OPLS/Amber force fields has been developed to predict ionic liquidmore » properties accurately. Cu(I)-catalyzed click chemistry was employed to synthesize triazolium-based ionic liquids with diverse side groups. Values of densities were predicted within 3% of experimental values, whereas self-diffusion coefficients were underestimated by about an order of magnitude though the trends were in excellent agreement, the activation energy calculated in simulation correlates well with experimental values. The predicted Henry coefficient for CO{sub 2} solubility reproduced the experimentally observed trends. This study highlights the importance of integrating experimental and computational approaches in property prediction and materials development, which is not only useful in the development of ionic liquids for CO{sub 2} capture but has application in many technological fields.« less

Computational/Experimental Aeroheating Predictions for X-33. Phase 2; Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, H. Harris, II; Weilmuenster, K. James; Horvath, Thomas J.; Berry, Scott A.

1998-01-01

Laminar and turbulent heating-rate calculations from an "engineering" code and laminar calculations from a "benchmark" Navier-Stokes code are compared with experimental wind-tunnel data obtained on several candidate configurations for the X-33 Phase 2 flight vehicle. The experimental data were obtained at a Mach number of 6 and a freestream Reynolds number ranging from 1 to 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft. Comparisons are presented along the windward symmetry plane and in a circumferential direction around the body at several axial stations at angles of attack from 20 to 40 deg. The experimental results include both laminar and turbulent flow. For the highest angle of attack some of the measured heating data exhibited a "non-laminar" behavior which caused the heating to increase above the laminar level long before "classical" transition to turbulent flow was observed. This trend was not observed at the lower angles of attack. When the flow was laminar, both codes predicted the heating along the windward symmetry plane reasonably well but under-predicted the heating in the chine region. When the flow was turbulent the LATCH code accurately predicted the measured heating rates. Both codes were used to calculate heating rates over the X-33 vehicle at the peak heating point on the design trajectory and they were found to be in very good agreement over most of the vehicle windward surface.

Experimental measurement of the 12C+16O fusion cross sections at astrophysical energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, X.; Tan, W. P.; Beard, M.; deBoer, R. J.; Gilardy, G.; Jung, H.; Liu, Q.; Lyons, S.; Robertson, D.; Setoodehnia, K.; Seymour, C.; Stech, E.; Vande Kolk, B.; Wiescher, M.; de Souza, R.; Hudan, S.; Singh, V.; Tang, X. D.; Uberseder, E.

2018-05-01

The total cross sections of the 12C+16O fusion have been experimentally determined at low energies to investigate the role of this reaction during late stellar evolution burning phases. A high-intensity oxygen beam was produced by the 5MV pelletron accelerator at the University of Notre Dame impinging on a thick ultra-pure graphite target. Protons and γ-rays were measured simultaneously in the center-of-mass energy range from 3.64 to 5.01 MeV, using strip silicon and HPGe detectors. Statistical model calculations were employed to interpret the experimental results. A new broad resonance-like structure is observed for the 12C+16O reaction, and a decreasing trend of its S-factor towards low energies is found.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Trends in Exposure to Chemicals in Personal Care and Consumer Products.

PubMed

Calafat, Antonia M; Valentin-Blasini, Liza; Ye, Xiaoyun

2015-12-01

Synthetic organic chemicals can be used in personal care and consumer products. Data on potential human health effects of these chemicals are limited-sometimes even contradictory-but because several of these chemicals are toxic in experimental animals, alternative compounds are entering consumer markets. Nevertheless, limited information exists on consequent exposure trends to both the original chemicals and their replacements. Biomonitoring (measuring concentrations of chemicals or their metabolites in people) provides invaluable information for exposure assessment. We use phthalates and bisphenol A-known industrial chemicals-and organophosphate insecticides as case studies to show exposure trends to these chemicals and their replacements (e.g., other phthalates, non-phthalate plasticizers, various bisphenols, pyrethroid insecticides) among the US general population. We compare US trends to national trends from Canada and Germany. Exposure to the original compounds is still prevalent among these general populations, but exposures to alternative chemicals may be increasing.

Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rawlins, M.A.; Steele, M.; Holland, M.M.; Adam, J.C.; Cherry, J.E.; Francis, J.A.; Groisman, P.Y.; Hinzman, L.D.; Huntington, T.G.; Kane, D.L.; Kimball, J.S.; Kwok, R.; Lammers, R.B.; Lee, C.M.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; McDonald, K.C.; Podest, E.; Pundsack, J.W.; Rudels, B.; Serreze, Mark C.; Shiklomanov, A.; Skagseth, O.; Troy, T.J.; Vorosmarty, C.J.; Wensnahan, M.; Wood, E.F.; Woodgate, R.; Yang, D.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, T.

2010-01-01

Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWC is experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

Numerical-experimental observation of shape bistability of red blood cells flowing in a microchannel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guckenberger, Achim; Kihm, Alexander; John, Thomas; Wagner, Christian; Gekle, Stephan

Red blood cells flowing through capillaries assume a wide variety of different shapes owing to their high deformability. Predicting the realized shapes is a complex field as they are determined by the intricate interplay between the flow conditions and the membrane mechanics. In this work we construct the shape phase diagram of a single red blood cell with a physiological viscosity ratio flowing in a microchannel. We use both experimental in-vitro measurements as well as 3D numerical simulations to complement the respective other one. Numerically, we have easy control over the initial starting configuration and natural access to the full 3D shape. With this information we obtain the phase diagram as a function of initial position, starting shape and cell velocity. Experimentally, we measure the occurrence frequency of the different shapes as a function of the cell velocity to construct the experimental diagram which is in good agreement with the numerical observations. Two different major shapes are found, namely croissants and slippers. Notably, both shapes show coexistence at low (<1 mm/s) and high velocities (>3 mm/s) while in-between only croissants are stable. This pronounced bistability indicates that RBC shapes are not only determined by system parameters such as flow velocity or channel size, but also strongly depend on the initial conditions.

Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.

2012-02-01

An overall appraisal of runoff changes at the European scale has been hindered by "white space" on maps of observed trends due to a paucity of readily-available streamflow data. This study tested whether this white space can be filled using estimates of trends derived from model simulations of European runoff. The simulations stem from an ensemble of eight global hydrological models that were forced with the same climate input for the period 1963-2000. A validation of the derived trends for 293 grid cells across the European domain with observation-based trend estimates, allowed an assessment of the uncertainty of the modelled trends. The models agreed on the predominant continental scale patterns of trends, but disagreed on magnitudes and even on trend directions at the transition between regions with increasing and decreasing runoff trends, in complex terrain with a high spatial variability, and in snow-dominated regimes. Model estimates appeared most reliable in reproducing trends in annual runoff, winter runoff, and 7-day high flow. Modelled trends in runoff during the summer months, spring (for snow influenced regions) and autumn, and trends in summer low flow, were more variable and should be viewed with caution due to higher uncertainty. The ensemble mean overall provided the best representation of the trends in the observations. Maps of trends in annual runoff based on the ensemble mean demonstrated a pronounced continental dipole pattern of positive trends in western and northern Europe and negative trends in southern and parts of Eastern Europe, which has not previously been demonstrated and discussed in comparable detail.

Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

PubMed Central

Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C.

2012-01-01

Objectives Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982–2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998–2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998–2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. Conclusions We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.1 PMID:22456049

Experimental Observation of the Aubry Transition in Two-Dimensional Colloidal Monolayers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazda, T.; Silva, A.; Manini, N.; Vanossi, A.; Guerra, R.; Tosatti, E.; Bechinger, C.

2018-01-01

The possibility to achieve entirely frictionless, i.e., superlubric, sliding between solids holds enormous potential for the operation of mechanical devices. At small length scales, where mechanical contacts are well defined, Aubry predicted a transition from a superlubric to a pinned state when the mechanical load is increased. Evidence for this intriguing Aubry transition (AT), which should occur in one dimension (1D) and at zero temperature, was recently obtained in few-atom chains. Here, we experimentally and theoretically demonstrate the occurrence of the AT in an extended two-dimensional (2D) system at room temperature using a colloidal monolayer on an optical lattice. Unlike the continuous nature of the AT in 1D, we observe a first-order transition in 2D leading to a coexistence regime of pinned and unpinned areas. Our data demonstrate that the original concept of Aubry not only survives in 2D but is relevant for the design of nanoscopic machines and devices at ambient temperature.

Regional nutrient trends in streams and rivers of the United States, 1993-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Lorenz, David L.

2009-01-01

Trends in flow-adjusted concentrations (indicators of anthropogenic changes) and observed concentrations (indicators of natural and anthropogenic changes) of total phosphorus and total nitrogen from 1993 to 2003 were evaluated in the eastern, central, and western United States by adapting the Regional Kendall trend test to account for seasonality and spatial correlation. The only significant regional trend was an increase in flow-adjusted concentrations of total phosphorus in the central United States, which corresponded to increases in phosphorus inputs from fertilizer in the region, particularly west of the Mississippi River. A similar upward regional trend in observed total phosphorus concentrations in the central United States was not found, likely because precipitation and runoff decreased during drought conditions in the region, offsetting the increased source loading on the land surface. A greater number of regional trends would have been significant if spatial correlation had been disregarded, indicating the importance of spatial correlation modifications in regional trend assessments when sites are not spatially independent.

Observed trends in the global jet stream characteristics during the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena-Ortiz, Cristina; Gallego, David; Ribera, Pedro; Ordonez, Paulina; Alvarez-Castro, Maria Del Carmen

2013-04-01

In this paper, we propose a new method based on the detection of jet cores with the aim to describe the climatological features of the jet streams and to estimate their trends in latitude, altitude, and velocity in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and 20th Century reanalysis data sets. Due to the fact that the detection method uses a single grid point to define the position of jet cores, our results reveal a greater latitudinal definition allowing a more accurate picture of the split flow configurations and double jet structures. To the best of our knowledge, these results provide the first multiseasonal and global trend analysis of jet streams based on a daily-resolution 3-D detection algorithm. Trends have been analyzed over 1958-2008 and during the post-satellite period, 1979-2008. We found that, in general, trends in jet velocities and latitudes have been faster for the Southern Hemisphere jets and especially for the southern polar front jet which has experienced the fastest velocity increase and poleward shift over 1979-2008 during the austral summer and autumn. Results presented here show an acceleration and a poleward shift of the northern and southern winter subtropical jets over 1979-2008 that occur at a faster rate and over larger zonally extended regions during this latter period than during 1958-2008.

Calc-Alkaline Liquid Lines of Descent Produced Under Oxidizing Conditions: An Experimental and Petrologic Study of Basaltic Tephras from the Western Aleutians, AK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waters, L. E.; Cottrell, E.; Kelley, K. A.; Coombs, M. L.

2017-12-01

Buldir, a volcano in the western Aleutian Arc, features eruptive products that form one of the most strongly calc-alkaline compositional trends observed in modern island arcs. Previous studies of Buldir and nearby submarine dredge samples suggest that Buldir's mineral phases and isotopic signatures may be introduced through mixing of two distinct magmas and/or melts, as no experimental study has been able to create a liquid line of descent (LLD) as calc-alkaline as Buldir's whole rock trend. To further test this hypothesis, we present new experimental results and petrographic analysis of tephras from the 2015 field season of the GeoPRISMS shared platform. Tephras (51.4-54.8 wt% SiO2) have a phenocryst assemblage of olivine + plagioclase + cpx + spinel ± hornblende (hbl). In natural samples, plagioclase comprises most of the crystal volume, followed by either olivine or hornblende. In samples that contain abundant hbl (Hbl Mg#=65-80), olivine and plagioclase span a range of compositions from Fo72-86 and An60-93, respectively. In samples without hbl, olivines are more forsteritic (Fo79-90), and plagioclase is less calcic (An65-83). Spinel is ubiquitous; with Cr- rich spinel inclusions in olivine and hbl, and magnetite in the groundmass. Our petrologic observations do not require magma mixing. To determine whether these observations could be consistent with the LLD of a single parental liquid, we conducted a series of phase equilibrium experiments at 100 MPa in a rapid-quench cold-seal (MHC) apparatus on the most primitive natural lava from Buldir (9.34 wt% MgO). Experiments were equilibrated in noble metal capsules pre-saturated with Fe, and buffered at Re-ReO2 under water-saturated conditions. Spinel [(Mg80, Fe2+20)(Fe3+52, Cr83, Al66)O4] is the liquidus phase, followed by olivine, then plagioclase, then cpx, and lastly, hbl. Once cpx and hbl saturate, spinel composition shifts to magnetite. Experimental run products demonstrate that all mineral phases observed in

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping.

PubMed

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-07-15

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Secular trends in growth.

PubMed

Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

2017-06-01

Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Pulse advancement and delay in an integrated-optical two-port ring-resonator circuit: direct experimental observations.

PubMed

Uranus, H P; Zhuang, L; Roeloffzen, C G H; Hoekstra, H J W M

2007-09-01

We report experimental observations of the negative-group-velocity (v(g)) phenomenon in an integrated-optical two-port ring-resonator circuit. We demonstrate that when the v(g) is negative, the (main) peak of output pulse appears earlier than the peak of a reference pulse, while for a positive v(g), the situation is the other way around. We observed that a pulse splitting phenomenon occurs in the neighborhood of the critical-coupling point. This pulse splitting limits the maximum achievable delay and advancement of a single device as well as facilitating a smooth transition from highly advanced to highly delayed pulse, and vice versa, across the critical-coupling point.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Diverse trends of electron correlation effects for properties with different radial and angular factors in an atomic system: a case study in Ca+

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Pradeep; Li, Cheng-Bin; Sahoo, B. K.

2018-03-01

Dependencies of electron correlation effects with the rank and radial behavior of spectroscopic properties are analyzed in the singly charged calcium ion (Ca+). To demonstrate these trends, we have determined field shift constants, magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole hyperfine structure constants, Landé g J factors, and electric quadrupole moments that are described by electronic operators with different radial and angular factors. Radial dependencies are investigated by comparing correlation trends among the properties that have similar angular factors and vice versa. To highlight these observations, we present results from the mean-field approach to all-orders along with intermediate contributions. Contributions from higher relativistic corrections are also given. These findings suggest that sometime lower-order approximations can give results agreeing with the experimental results, but inclusion of some of higher-order correlation effects can cause large disagreement with the experimental values. Therefore, validity of a method for accurate evaluation of atomic properties can be tested by performing calculations of several properties simultaneously that have diverse dependencies on the angular and radial factors and comparing with the available experimental results. Nevertheless, it is imperative to include full triple and quadrupole excitations in the all-order many-body methods for high-precision calculations that are yet to be developed adopting spherical coordinate system for atomic studies.

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Baker, Nancy T.

2014-01-01

Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

Experimental observation of self excited co-rotating multiple vortices in a dusty plasma with inhomogeneous plasma background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, Mangilal; Mukherjee, S.; Bandyopadhyay, P.

2017-03-01

We report an experimental observation of multiple co-rotating vortices in an extended dust column in the background of an inhomogeneous diffused plasma. An inductively coupled rf discharge is initiated in the background of argon gas in the source region. This plasma was later found to diffuse into the main experimental chamber. A secondary DC glow discharge plasma is produced to introduce dust particles into the plasma volume. These micron-sized poly-disperse dust particles get charged in the background of the DC plasma and are transported by the ambipolar electric field of the diffused plasma. These transported particles are found to be confined in an electrostatic potential well, where the resultant electric field due to the diffused plasma (ambipolar E-field) and glass wall charging (sheath E-field) holds the micron-sized particles against the gravity. Multiple co-rotating (anti-clockwise) dust vortices are observed in the dust cloud for a particular discharge condition. The transition from multiple vortices to a single dust vortex is observed when input rf power is lowered. The occurrence of these vortices is explained on the basis of the charge gradient of dust particles, which is orthogonal to the ion drag force. The charge gradient is a consequence of the plasma inhomogeneity along the dust cloud length. The detailed nature and the reason for multiple vortices are still under investigation through further experiments; however, preliminary qualitative understanding is discussed based on the characteristic scale length of the dust vortex. There is a characteristic size of the vortex in the dusty plasma; therefore, multiple vortices could possibly be formed in an extended dusty plasma with inhomogeneous plasma background. The experimental results on the vortex motion of particles are compared with a theoretical model and are found to be in close agreement.

Experimental observation of different soliton types in a net-normal group-dispersion fiber laser.

PubMed

Feng, Zhongyao; Rong, Qiangzhou; Qiao, Xueguang; Shao, Zhihua; Su, Dan

2014-09-20

Different soliton types are observed in a net-normal group-dispersion fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation for passive mode locking. The proposed laser can deliver a dispersion-managed soliton, typical dissipation solitons, and a quasi-harmonic mode-locked pulse, a soliton bundle, and especially a dark pulse by only appropriately adjusting the linear cavity phase delay bias using one polarization controller at the fixed pump power. These nonlinear waves show different features, including the spectral shapes and time traces. The experimental observations show that the five soliton types could exist in the same laser cavity, which implies that integrable systems, dissipative systems, and dark pulse regimes can transfer and be switched in a passively mode-locked laser. Our studies not only verify the numeral simulation of the different soliton-types formation in a net-normal group-dispersion operation but also provide insight into Ginzburg-Landau equation systems.

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

PubMed

Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

2016-01-01

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

Estimating structure quality trends in the Protein Data Bank by equivalent resolution.

PubMed

Bagaria, Anurag; Jaravine, Victor; Güntert, Peter

2013-10-01

The quality of protein structures obtained by different experimental and ab-initio calculation methods varies considerably. The methods have been evolving over time by improving both experimental designs and computational techniques, and since the primary aim of these developments is the procurement of reliable and high-quality data, better techniques resulted on average in an evolution toward higher quality structures in the Protein Data Bank (PDB). Each method leaves a specific quantitative and qualitative "trace" in the PDB entry. Certain information relevant to one method (e.g. dynamics for NMR) may be lacking for another method. Furthermore, some standard measures of quality for one method cannot be calculated for other experimental methods, e.g. crystal resolution or NMR bundle RMSD. Consequently, structures are classified in the PDB by the method used. Here we introduce a method to estimate a measure of equivalent X-ray resolution (e-resolution), expressed in units of Å, to assess the quality of any type of monomeric, single-chain protein structure, irrespective of the experimental structure determination method. We showed and compared the trends in the quality of structures in the Protein Data Bank over the last two decades for five different experimental techniques, excluding theoretical structure predictions. We observed that as new methods are introduced, they undergo a rapid method development evolution: within several years the e-resolution score becomes similar for structures obtained from the five methods and they improve from initially poor performance to acceptable quality, comparable with previously established methods, the performance of which is essentially stable. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation datasets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land-use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 52-54% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 99%) and 84-85% in dry basins (ranging from 13 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 39-42% of ET trends in wet basins and 69-79% in dry basins. Cropland expansion increased ET in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation data sets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 54-55% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 100%) and 94-95% in dry basins (ranging from 69 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 45-46% of ET trends in wet basins and 80-84% in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

Clinical Impact Research - how to choose experimental or observational intervention study?

PubMed

Malmivaara, Antti

2016-11-01

Interventions directed to individuals by health and social care systems should increase health and welfare of patients and customers. This paper aims to present and define a new concept Clinical Impact Research (CIR) and suggest which study design, either randomized controlled trial (RCT) (experimental) or benchmarking controlled trial (BCT) (observational) is recommendable and to consider the feasibility, validity, and generalizability issues in CIR. The new concept is based on a narrative review of the literature and on author's idea that in intervention studies, there is a need to cover comprehensively all the main impact categories and their respective outcomes. The considerations on how to choose the most appropriate study design (RCT or BCT) were based on previous methodological studies on RCTs and BCTs and on author's previous work on the concepts benchmarking controlled trial and system impact research (SIR). The CIR covers all studies aiming to assess the impact for health and welfare of any health (and integrated social) care or public health intervention directed to an individual. The impact categories are accessibility, quality, equality, effectiveness, safety, and efficiency. Impact is the main concept, and within each impact category, both generic- and context-specific outcome measures are needed. CIR uses RCTs and BCTs. CIR should be given a high priority in medical, health care, and health economic research. Clinicians and leaders at all levels of health care can exploit the evidence from CIR. Key messages The new concept of Clinical Impact Research (CIR) is defined as a research field aiming to assess what are the impacts of healthcare and public health interventions targeted to patients or individuals. The term impact refers to all effects caused by the interventions, with particular emphasis on accessibility, quality, equality, effectiveness, safety, and efficiency. CIR uses two study designs: randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (experimental

Understanding trends in blood pressure and their associations with body mass index in Chinese children, from 1985 to 2010: a cross-sectional observational study.

PubMed

Dong, Bin; Wang, Zhiqiang; Song, Yi; Wang, Hai-Jun; Ma, Jun

2015-09-11

Understanding trends in blood pressure (BP) in childhood is crucial to addressing and reducing the burden of adulthood hypertension and associated mortality in the future. In view of growing obesity in Chinese children, we sought to investigate the trends in BP and the influence of body mass index (BMI) on them. We included 1,010,153 children aged 8-17 years, with completed records from a large national successive cross-sectional survey, the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health, between 1985 and 2010. BP was measured according to the recommendation of the National High Blood Pressure Education Program Working Group, and the elevated BP was based on sex-, age- and height-specific 95th centile of the recommendation. The adjusted mean systolic BP in boys and girls decreased by 3.9 and 5.6 mm Hg between 1985 and 2005, and increased by 1.3 and 1.0 mm Hg between 2005 and 2010, respectively. Corresponding adjusted prevalence of elevated systolic BP in boys and girls declined from 5.1% and 5.5% to 3.5% and 2.5% between 1985 and 2005, and increased to 4.9% and 3.5% in 2010, respectively. Adjusted mean BMI of boys and girls in 2010 was 2.0 and 1.2 kg/m(2) higher than those in 1985, respectively. The prevalence of obesity rose from 0% to 3.4% in boys and 0.9% in girls. Further adjusting for BMI did not change these trends in systolic BP. A similar pattern was also observed in diastolic BP. After declining for 20 years, BP levels in Chinese children started to climb upwards. These trends in BP cannot be fully explained by BMI. The investigation of other determinants of BP may provide additional opportunity to curb the current upward BP trend in Chinese children. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Revealing Fact or Fiction in Spitzer Exoplanet Phase Curve Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, Jacob; Parmentier, Vivien; Mansfield, Megan; Cowan, Nicolas; Kempton, Eliza; Desert, Jean-Michel; Swain, Mark; Dang, Lisa; Bell, Taylor; Keating, Dylan; Zellem, Robert; Fortney, Jonathan; Line, Michael; Kreidberg, Laura; Stevenson, Kevin

2018-05-01

The constraints on energy transport in exoplanet atmospheres from phase curve observations is sure to be one of Spitzer's enduring legacies. However, with phase curves for 17 planets now observed we find that the previously observed trends are not coming into sharper focus. Instead, these trends in hot spot offset and day-night flux contrast vs. the fundamental planetary parameters expected to control the energy transport (e.g., irradiation and rotational period) are becoming more uncertain due to the recent discovery of outliers. At the same time, there is a growing understanding that a number of factors like magnetic fields, aerosols, and molecular chemistry could be confounding the search for these correlations. We propose a final phase curve program to advance our understanding of energy transport in transiting exoplanet atmospheres and to cement Spitzer's legacy on this topic. This program tackles the outstanding questions in this area with a comprehensive, two-pronged approach: (1) a survey of an additional 10 high signal-to-noise planets that span a broad parameter space and (2) a search for magnetic field-induced variability in the planet HAT-P-7b. The expanded survey will bring additional statistical power to the search for trends and will enable us to determine if the recently-detected outliers are indeed oddities or are instead actually representative of the intrinsic sample diversity. The variability search will test the hypothesis that the atmospheric dynamics of the partially ionized atmospheres of close-in planets are influenced by magnetic fields, which could explain the observed scatter around the existing trends. All observations will be performed at 4.5 microns, which is the consensus best channel for these measurements. The dataset from this program will provide vital context for JWST observations and will not be superseded until ARIEL flies more than a decade from now.

Persistent collective trend in stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

2010-12-01

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

1995-01-01

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Experimental observation of breathing solitons and a third harmonic in a tapered photonic crystal fiber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Yao, C. F.; Li, C. Z.; Jia, Z. X.; Li, Q.; Wu, C. F.; Ohishi, Y.; Qin, W. P.; Qin, G. S.

2018-02-01

We report the experimental observation of breathing solitons and a third harmonic in a tapered fluorotellurite photonic crystal fiber (PCF) pumped by a 1560 nm femtosecond fiber laser. The PCF has a core diameter that varies continuously along its length, resulting in a zero-dispersion wavelength that moves from 1325 nm to 906 nm over the transition region. By finely controlling the dispersion map of the tapered PCF and increasing the order of the optical solitons, their breathing behavior is observed in the frequency domain and the number of breaths goes up to 9. Furthermore, the breathing behavior of the optical soliton is transferred to the third harmonic through inter-modal phase-matched processes in the tapered PCF, and the third harmonic also breathes with an increase in the pump power.

Experimental observations of a complex, supersonic nozzle concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magstadt, Andrew; Berry, Matthew; Glauser, Mark; Ruscher, Christopher; Gogineni, Sivaram; Kiel, Barry; Skytop Turbulence Labs, Syracuse University Team; Spectral Energies, LLC. Team; Air Force Research Laboratory Team

2015-11-01

A complex nozzle concept, which fuses multiple canonical flows together, has been experimentally investigated via pressure, schlieren and PIV in the anechoic chamber at Syracuse University. Motivated by future engine designs of high-performance aircraft, the rectangular, supersonic jet under investigation has a single plane of symmetry, an additional shear layer (referred to as a wall jet) and an aft deck representative of airframe integration. Operating near a Reynolds number of 3 ×106 , the nozzle architecture creates an intricate flow field comprised of high turbulence levels, shocks, shear & boundary layers, and powerful corner vortices. Current data suggest that the wall jet, which is an order of magnitude less energetic than the core, has significant control authority over the acoustic power through some non-linear process. As sound is a direct product of turbulence, experimental and analytical efforts further explore this interesting phenomenon associated with the turbulent flow. The authors acknowledge the funding source, a SBIR Phase II project with Spectral Energies, LLC. and AFRL turbine engine branch under the direction of Dr. Barry Kiel.

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests.

PubMed

Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R

2012-10-07

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Longitudinal trends in use and costs of targeted therapies for common cancers in Taiwan: a retrospective observational study

PubMed Central

Hsu, Jason C; Lu, Christine Y

2016-01-01

Objectives Some targeted therapies have improved survival and overall quality of cancer care generally, but these increasingly expensive medicines have led to increases in pharmaceutical expenditure. This study examined trends in use and expenditures of antineoplastic agents in Taiwan, and estimated market shares by prescription volume and costs of targeted therapies over time. We also determined which cancer types accounted for the highest use of targeted therapies. Design This is a retrospective observational study focusing on the utilisation of targeted therapies for treatment of cancer. Setting The monthly claims data for antineoplastic agents were retrieved from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (2009–2012). Main outcome measures We calculated market shares by prescription volume and costs for each class of antineoplastic agent by cancer type. Using a time series design with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, we estimated trends in use and costs of targeted therapies. Results Among all antineoplastic agents, use of targeted therapies grew from 6.24% in 2009 to 12.29% in 2012, but their costs rose from 26.16% to 41.57% in that time. Monoclonal antibodies and protein kinase inhibitors contributed the most (respectively, 23.84% and 16.12% of costs for antineoplastic agents in 2012). During 2009–2012, lung (44.64% of use; 28.26% of costs), female breast (16.49% of use; 27.18% of costs) and colorectal (12.11% of use; 13.16% of costs) cancers accounted for the highest use of targeted therapies. Conclusions In Taiwan, targeted therapies are increasingly used for different cancers, representing a substantial economic burden. It is important to establish mechanisms to monitor their use and outcomes. PMID:27266775

Population trends of binary near-Earth asteroids based on radar and lightcurves observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brozovic, Marina; Benner, Lance A. M.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Taylor, Patrick A.; Busch, Michael W.; Margot, Jean-Luc; Nolan, Michael C.; Howell, Ellen S.; Springmann, Alessondra; Giorgini, Jon D.; Shepard, Michael K.; Magri, Christopher; Richardson, James E.; Rivera-Valentin, Edgard G.; Rodriguez-Ford, Linda A.; Zambrano Marin, Luisa Fernanda

2016-10-01

The Arecibo and Goldstone planetary radars are invaluable instruments for the discovery and characterization of binary and triple asteroids in the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. To date, 41 out of 56 known binaries and triples (~73% of the objects) have been discovered by radar and 49 of these multiple systems have been detected by radar. Their absolute magnitudes range from 12.4 for (1866) Sisyphus to 22.6 for 2015 TD144 and have a mean and rms dispersion of 18.1+-2.0. There is a pronounced decrease in the abundance of binaries for absolute magnitudes H>20. One of the smallest binaries, 1994 CJ1, with an absolute magnitude H=21.4, is also the most accessible binary for a spacecraft rendezvous. Among 365 NEAs with H<22 (corresponding to diameters larger than ~ 140 m) detected by radar since 1999, ~13% have at least one companion. Two triple systems are known, (15391) 2001 SN263 and (136617) 1994 CC, but this is probably an underestimate due to low signal to noise ratios (SNRs) for many of the binary radar detections. Taxonomic classes have been reported for 41 out of 56 currently known multiple systems and some trends are starting to emerge: at least 50% of multiple asteroid systems are S, Sq, Q, or Sk, and at least 20% are optically dark (C, B, P, or U). Thirteen V-class NEAs have been observed by radar and six of them are binaries. Curiously, a comparable number of E-class objects have been detected by radar, but none is known to be a binary.

Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

2016-09-01

In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

Icehouse Effect: A Polar Autumn and Winter Cooling Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzel, Peter J.

1999-01-01

The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.

OBSERVATIONS ON THE EFFECT OF RESIDUAL INSECTICIDES IN EXPERIMENTAL HUTS IN MASAKA DISTRICT, UGANDA.

PubMed

CULLEN, J R; DEZULUETA, J

1964-01-01

Observations made in Kigezi District, Uganda, had shown a great reduction in the number of Anopheles gambiae entering an experimental hut treated with DDT. The work reported in this paper confirms the phenomenon of reduced entry by A. gambiae and A. funestus in two experiments carried out in Masaka, another district of Uganda, using mud-walled huts, roofed with thatch or corrugated-iron sheets and sprayed with DDT and dieldrin. The fact that no similar reduction was observed with Mansonia (mansonioides) uniformis, a common species in the area, indicates the need to determine and take into account any reduction in the number of entering mosquitos when assessing the effect of residual insecticides. Of interest in these experiments was the finding that DDT and dieldrin produced satisfactory kills with all the local anopheline species in spite of their rapid sorption by the mud walls, an indication of the importance of thatch or metal roofs as a source of active insecticide.

Observations on the effect of residual insecticides in experimental huts in Masaka District, Uganda*

PubMed Central

Cullen, J. R.; de Zulueta, J.

1964-01-01

Observations made in Kigezi District, Uganda, had shown a great reduction in the number of Anopheles gambiae entering an experimental hut treated with DDT. The work reported in this paper confirms the phenomenon of reduced entry by A. gambiae and A. funestus in two experiments carried out in Masaka, another district of Uganda, using mud-walled huts, roofed with thatch or corrugated-iron sheets and sprayed with DDT and dieldrin. The fact that no similar reduction was observed with Mansonia (mansonioides) uniformis, a common species in the area, indicates the need to determine and take into account any reduction in the number of entering mosquitos when assessing the effect of residual insecticides. Of interest in these experiments was the finding that DDT and dieldrin produced satisfactory kills with all the local anopheline species in spite of their rapid sorption by the mud walls, an indication of the importance of thatch or metal roofs as a source of active insecticide. PMID:14153414

Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2006-01-01

Alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) in areas near meteorological observation stations can influence the measurement of climatological variables such as temperature. Urbanization near climate stations has been the focus of considerable research attention, however conversions between non-urban LULC classes may also have an impact. In this study, trends of minimum, maximum, and average temperature at 366 U.S. Climate Normals stations are analyzed based on changes in LULC defined by the U.S. Land Cover Trends Project. Results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends before periods of greatest LULC change, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. In contrast, after the period of greatest LULC change was observed, 95% of the stations that exhibited significant trends (minimum, maximum, or mean temperature) displayed warming trends. Copyriht 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

The recent warming trend in North Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orsi, Anais J.; Kawamura, Kenji; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Fettweis, Xavier; Box, Jason E.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Clow, Gary D.; Landais, Amaelle; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-01-01

The Arctic is among the fastest warming regions on Earth, but it is also one with limited spatial coverage of multidecadal instrumental surface air temperature measurements. Consequently, atmospheric reanalyses are relatively unconstrained in this region, resulting in a large spread of estimated 30 year recent warming trends, which limits their use to investigate the mechanisms responsible for this trend. Here we present a surface temperature reconstruction over 1982–2011 at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, 51°W, 77°N), in North Greenland, based on the inversion of borehole temperature and inert gas isotope data. We find that NEEM has warmed by 2.7 ± 0.33°C over the past 30 years, from the long-term 1900–1970 average of −28.55 ± 0.29°C. The warming trend is principally caused by an increase in downward longwave heat flux. Atmospheric reanalyses underestimate this trend by 17%, underlining the need for more in situ observations to validate reanalyses.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

Extreme cyclone events in the Arctic: Wintertime variability and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinke, A.; Maturilli, M.; Graham, R. M.; Matthes, H.; Handorf, D.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.; Moore, J. C.

2017-09-01

Typically 20-40 extreme cyclone events (sometimes called ‘weather bombs’) occur in the Arctic North Atlantic per winter season, with an increasing trend of 6 events/decade over 1979-2015, according to 6 hourly station data from Ny-Ålesund. This increased frequency of extreme cyclones is consistent with observed significant winter warming, indicating that the meridional heat and moisture transport they bring is a factor in rising temperatures in the region. The winter trend in extreme cyclones is dominated by a positive monthly trend of about 3-4 events/decade in November-December, due mainly to an increasing persistence of extreme cyclone events. A negative trend in January opposes this, while there is no significant trend in February. We relate the regional patterns of the trend in extreme cyclones to anomalously low sea-ice conditions in recent years, together with associated large-scale atmospheric circulation changes such as ‘blockinglike’ circulation patterns (e.g. Scandinavian blocking in December and Ural blocking during January-February).

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Surface ozone and carbon monoxide levels observed at Oki, Japan: regional air pollution trends in East Asia.

PubMed

Sikder, Helena Akhter; Suthawaree, Jeeranut; Kato, Shungo; Kajii, Yoshizumi

2011-03-01

Simultaneous ground-based measurements of ozone and carbon monoxide were performed at Oki, Japan, from January 2001 to September 2002 in order to investigate the O(3) and CO characteristics and their distributions. The observations revealed that O(3) and CO concentrations were maximum in springtime and minimum in the summer. The monthly averaged concentrations of O(3) and CO were 60 and 234 ppb in spring and 23 and 106 ppb in summer, respectively. Based on direction, 5-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis was carried out to determine the transport path of air masses, preceding their arrival at Oki. Comparison between classified results from present work and results from the year 1994-1996 was carried out. The O(3) and CO concentration results of classified air masses in our analysis show similar concentration trends to previous findings; highest in the WNW/W, lowest in N/NE and medium levels in NW. Moreover, O(3) levels are higher and CO levels are lower in the present study in all categories. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of NTF Experimental Data with CFD Predictions from the Third AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vassberg, John C.; Tinoco, Edward N.; Mani, Mori; Levy, David; Zickuhr, Tom; Mavriplis, Dimitri J.; Wahls, Richard A.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Eisfeld, Bernhard;

Experimental and Theoretical Investigations on the Nanoscale Kinetic Friction in Ambient Environmental Conditions.

PubMed

Gueye, Birahima; Zhang, Yan; Wang, Yujuan; Chen, Yunfei

2015-07-08

The liquid lubrication, thermolubricity and dynamic lubricity due to mechanical oscillations are investigated with an atomic force microscope in ambient environmental conditions with different relative humidity (RH) levels. Experimental results demonstrate that high humidity at low-temperature regime enhances the liquid lubricity while at high-temperature regime it hinders the effect of the thermolubricity due to the formation of liquid bridges. Friction response to the dynamic lubricity in both high- and low-temperature regimes keeps the same trends, namely the friction force decreases with increasing the amplitude of the applied vibration on the tip regardless of the RH levels. An interesting finding is that for the dynamic lubricity at high temperature, high-humidity condition leads to the friction forces higher than that at low-humidity condition while at low temperature the opposite trend is observed. An extended two-dimensional dynamic model accounting for the RH is proposed to interpret the frictional mechanism in ambient conditions.

Evaluating the impact and use of Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Non-randomised Designs (TREND) reporting guidelines

PubMed Central

Fuller, Thomas; Pearson, Mark; Peters, Jaime L; Anderson, Rob

2012-01-01

Introduction Accurate and full reporting of evaluation of interventions in health research is needed for evidence synthesis and informed decision-making. Evidence suggests that biases and incomplete reporting affect the assessment of study validity and the ability to include this data in secondary research. The Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Non-randomised Designs (TREND) reporting guideline was developed to improve the transparency and accuracy of the reporting of behavioural and public health evaluations with non-randomised designs. Evaluations of reporting guidelines have shown that they can be effective in improving reporting completeness. Although TREND occupies a niche within reporting guidelines, and despite it being 8 years since publication, no study yet has assessed its impact on reporting completeness or investigated what factors affect its use by authors and journal editors. This protocol describes two studies that aim to redress this. Methods and analysis Study 1 will use an observational design to examine the uptake and use of TREND by authors, and by journals in their instructions to authors. A comparison of reporting completeness and study quality of papers that do and do not use TREND to inform reporting will be made. Study 2 will use a cross-sectional survey to investigate what factors inhibit or facilitate authors’ and journal editors’ use of TREND. Semistructured interviews will also be conducted with a subset of authors and editors to explore findings from study 1 and the surveys in greater depth. Ethics and dissemination These studies will generate evidence of how implementation and dissemination of the TREND guideline has affected reporting completeness in studies with experimental, non-randomised designs within behavioural and public health research. The project has received ethics approval from the Research Ethics Committee of the Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth. PMID

Note: Experimental observation of nano-channel pattern in light sheet laser interference nanolithography system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mohan, Kavya; Mondal, Partha Pratim, E-mail: partha@iap.iisc.ernet.in

We experimentally observed nano-channel-like pattern in a light-sheet based interference nanolithography system. The optical system created nano-channel-like patterned illumination. Coherent counter-propagating light sheets are made to interfere at and near geometrical focus along the propagation z-axis. This results in the formation of nano-channel-like pattern (of size ≈ 300 nm and inter-channel periodicity of ≈337.5 nm) inside the sample due to constructive and destructive interference. In addition, the technique has the ability to generate large area patterning using larger light-sheets. Exciting applications are in the broad field of nanotechnology (nano-electronics and nano-fluidics).

Thermal conductivity improvement in carbon nanoparticle doped PAO oil: An experimental study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaikh, S.; Lafdi, K.; Ponnappan, R.

2007-03-01

The present work involves a study on the thermal conductivity of nanoparticle-oil suspensions for three types of nanoparticles, namely, carbon nanotubes (CNTs), exfoliated graphite (EXG), and heat treated nanofibers (HTT) with PAO oil as the base fluid. To accomplish the above task, an experimental analysis is performed using a modern light flash technique (LFA 447) for measuring the thermal conductivity of the three types of nanofluids, for different loading of nanoparticles. The experimental results show a similar trend as observed in literature for nanofluids with a maximum enhancement of approximately 161% obtained for the CNT-PAO oil suspension. The overall percent enhancements for different volume fractions of the nanoparticles are highest for the CNT-based nanofluid, followed by the EXG and the HTT. The findings from this study for the three different types of carbon nanoparticles can have great potential in the field of thermal management.

Experimental observation of topological Fermi arcs in type-II Weyl semimetal MoTe2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ke; Wan, Guoliang; Deng, Peng; Zhang, Kenan; Ding, Shijie; Wang, Eryin; Yan, Mingzhe; Huang, Huaqing; Zhang, Hongyun; Xu, Zhilin; Denlinger, Jonathan; Fedorov, Alexei; Yang, Haitao; Duan, Wenhui; Yao, Hong; Wu, Yang; Fan, Shoushan; Zhang, Haijun; Chen, Xi; Zhou, Shuyun

2016-12-01

Weyl semimetal is a new quantum state of matter hosting the condensed matter physics counterpart of the relativistic Weyl fermions originally introduced in high-energy physics. The Weyl semimetal phase realized in the TaAs class of materials features multiple Fermi arcs arising from topological surface states and exhibits novel quantum phenomena, such as a chiral anomaly-induced negative magnetoresistance and possibly emergent supersymmetry. Recently it was proposed theoretically that a new type (type-II) of Weyl fermion that arises due to the breaking of Lorentz invariance, which does not have a counterpart in high-energy physics, can emerge as topologically protected touching between electron and hole pockets. Here, we report direct experimental evidence of topological Fermi arcs in the predicted type-II Weyl semimetal MoTe2 (refs ,,). The topological surface states are confirmed by directly observing the surface states using bulk- and surface-sensitive angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, and the quasi-particle interference pattern between the putative topological Fermi arcs in scanning tunnelling microscopy. By establishing MoTe2 as an experimental realization of a type-II Weyl semimetal, our work opens up opportunities for probing the physical properties of this exciting new state.

Physical properties of dust particles in different comets inferred from observations and experimental simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadamcik, E.; Levasseur-Regourd, A. C.

2007-08-01

1.Introduction Remote observations of solar light scattered by cometary dust particles provide information on the dust properties for a large variety of comets, in complement to the exceptional in-situ observations (with or without sample returns). The scattered light is partially linearly polarized, with a polarization degree depending on the geometry of observations (phase angle ?) and on the physical properties of the particles. Differences in polarization have been found in cometary comae, pointing to different physical properties of the dust (e.g. sizes of the grains, of the aggregates, structures and porosities, complex refractive indices) [1, 2]. Such differences, as well as an observed polarimetric wavelength effect, tend to show that large aggregates made of submicron-sized grains could be present in some cometary comae regions [3, 4]. On the opposite, more compact particles seem to be present in other comae regions and/or comets [5, 6]. 2. Results We will present observations of different comets. The variations of the dust properties in the coma and their evolution will be discussed. The results will be compared to the results obtained by other observational techniques. On the images of comet 9P/Tempel 1 (at ?=41°) some hours after Deep Impact, two kinds of dust particles are detected: more compact particles with small velocities and fluffy particles ejected by the impact with larger velocities. On the images of comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3, in the tail direction of fragment B, a disruption is observed. The dust coma around fragment C is more symmetric. For both A and B, important dust jets are ejected by the nucleus, which are visible on the intensity images in the solar and antisolar directions, and on the polarization maps. 3. Interpretation and conclusion Numerical (7,8,9) and experimental simulations provide an interpretation of the observations in terms of the physical properties of the particles. Experimental simulations have been performed on

Attribution of Trends and Variability in Surface Ozone over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Cooper, Owen; Damo, Megan; Logan, Jennifer; Rodriquez, Jose; Strahan, Susan; Witte, Jacquie

2013-01-01

Concentrations of tropospheric ozone, a greenhouse gas and air pollutant, are impacted by changes in precursor emissions as well meteorology and influx from the stratosphere. Observations show a decreasing trend in summertime surface ozone at rural stations in the eastern United States, while some western stations show increasing trends, particularly in springtime. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) global chemical transport model to investigate the roles of precursor emission changes, meteorological variability, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in explaining observed trends in surface ozone from rural sites in the United States from 1991-2010. The model's interannual variability shows significant correlations with observations from many of the surface sites. We also compare the simulated ozone to ozonesonde data for several locations with sufficiently long records. We compare a simulation with time-dependent precursor emissions, including emission reductions over the United States and Europe and increases over Asia, to a simulation with fixed emissions to quantify the impact of changing emissions on the surface trends. The simulation with varying emissions reproduces much of the east-west difference in summertime ozone over the U.S., although it generally underestimates the negative trend in the East. In contrast, the fixed-emission simulation shows increasing ozone at both eastern and western sites. We will discuss possible causes of this behavior, including long-range transport and STE.

The Summertime Warming Trends in Surface Water Temperature of the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, N.; Kravtsov, S.; Roebber, P.

2014-12-01

Over the past 30 years, the Laurentian Great Lakes have exhibited summertime warming trends in surface water temperature which were greater than those in surface air temperature of the surrounding land, by as much as an order of magnitude over some of the regions. For the years 1995-2012, Lake Superior exhibited the most dramatic warming trend in July-mean temperature, of 0.27±0.15 deg. C yr-1, based on the NOAA's GLSEA satellite observations. Shallower lakes, such as Lake Erie, exhibited smaller warming trends. In addition, within each lake, the warming was also the greatest in the regions of larger water depth; for example, some regions of Lake Superior deeper than 200m exhibited surface-water July-mean warming trends which exceeded 0.3 deg. C yr-1. We used a three-column lake model based on the one developed by Hostetler and Barnstein (1990) coupled with a two-layer atmospheric energy balance model to explore the physics behind these warming trends. We found that, as suggested by Austin and Colman (2007), the ice-albedo feedback plays an important role in amplifying the overlake warming trends. Our particular emphasis was on the question of whether the ice-albedo feedback alone is enough to account for lacustrine amplification of surface warming observed over the Great Lakes region. We found that the answer to this question depends on a number of model parameters, including the diffusion and light attenuation coefficients, which greatly affect the model's skill in reproducing the observed ice coverage of the deep lakes.

Pesticide trends in major rivers of the United States, 1992-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2014-01-01

agricultural and urban applications—simazine, tebuthiuron, Dacthal, pendimethalin, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, carbofuran, and carbaryl—had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends and concentration trends in urban streams that were evaluated in a separate companion study. The importance of the urban stream trends for explaining concentration trends in major rivers indicates the significance of nonagricultural uses of some pesticides to concentrations in major rivers despite the much smaller area of urban land use compared to agriculture. Deethylatrazine, a degradate of atrazine, was the only pesticide compound assessed that had frequent occurrences during 1997–2006 and 2001–10 of concentration trends in the opposite direction of use trends (atrazine use). The nested analysis for the Mississippi River indicates that most trends observed in the largest rivers—multiple Mississippi River sites, the Ohio River, and the Missouri River—are consistent with streamflow contributions and concentration trends observed at tributary sites. Streamflow (incorporated into the trend model and shown in the nested basin analysis), trends in agricultural use of pesticides (quantified in this report), and urban use of pesticides (represented by concentration trends in a companion study of urban streams) are all important influences on pesticide concentrations in streams and rivers. Consideration of these influences is vital to understanding trends in pesticide concentrations.

Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar

2018-05-01

Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.

Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.

2016-04-01

East Antarctica is an order of magnitude larger than its western neighbour and the Greenland ice sheet. It has the greatest potential to contribute to sea level rise of any source, including non-glacial contributors. It is, however, the most challenging ice mass to constrain because of a range of factors including the relative paucity of in-situ observations and the poor signal to noise ratio of Earth Observation data such as satellite altimetry and gravimetry. A recent study using satellite radar and laser altimetry (Zwally et al. 2015) concluded that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) had been accumulating mass at a rate of 136±28 Gt/yr for the period 2003-08. Here, we use a Bayesian hierarchical model, which has been tested on, and applied to, the whole of Antarctica, to investigate the impact of different assumptions regarding the origin of elevation changes of the EAIS. We combined GRACE, satellite laser and radar altimeter data and GPS measurements to solve simultaneously for surface processes (primarily surface mass balance, SMB), ice dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment over the period 2003-13. The hierarchical model partitions mass trends between SMB and ice dynamics based on physical principles and measures of statistical likelihood. Without imposing the division between these processes, the model apportions about a third of the mass trend to ice dynamics, +18 Gt/yr, and two thirds, +39 Gt/yr, to SMB. The total mass trend for that period for the EAIS was 57±20 Gt/yr. Over the period 2003-08, we obtain an ice dynamic trend of 12 Gt/yr and a SMB trend of 15 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 27 Gt/yr. We then imposed the condition that the surface mass balance is tightly constrained by the regional climate model RACMO2.3 and allowed height changes due to ice dynamics to occur in areas of low surface velocities (<10 m/yr) , such as those in the interior of East Antarctica (a similar condition as used in Zwally 2015). The model must find a solution that

The patient's safety and access to experimental drugs after the termination of clinical trials: regulations and trends.

PubMed

da Silva, Ricardo Eccard; Amato, Angélica Amorim; Sousa, Thiago do Rego; de Carvalho, Marta Rodrigues; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi

2018-05-12

Participants' rights and safety must be guaranteed not only while a clinical trial is being conducted but also when a clinical trial finishes. The criteria for post-trial access to experimental drugs, however, are unclear in various countries. The objectives of this study were (i) to ascertain if there were regulations or guidelines related to patients' access to drugs after the end of clinical trials in the countries selected in the study and (ii) to analyze trends in post-trial access in countries classified by their level of economic development. This study is a retrospective review. The data are from the records of clinical trials from 2014 registered in the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database. Among the countries selected, provision of drugs post-trial is mandatory only in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Peru. The plans for post-trial access tend to be more present in low- and middle-income and upper middle-income countries, in comparison with high-income countries. Studies involving vulnerable populations are 2.53 times more likely to have plans for post-trial access than studies which do not. The guaranteeing of post-trial access remains mandatory in few countries. Considering that individuals seen as vulnerable have been included in clinical trials without plans for post-trial access, stakeholders must discuss the need to develop regulations mandating the guaranteeing of post-trial access in specified situations.

Present-day distribution and trends of global tropospheric ozone from satellite observations: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudel, A.; Cooper, O. R.; Barret, B.; Boynard, A.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Huang, G.; Hurtmans, D.; Kerridge, B. J.; Latter, B.; Le Flochmoen, E.; Liu, X.; Neu, J. L.; Siddans, R.; Wespes, C.; Worden, H. M.; Ziemke, J. R.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is a greenhouse gas and pollutant detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity. Since 1990 a large portion of the anthropogenic emissions that react in the atmosphere to produce ozone have shifted from North America and Europe to Asia. This rapid shift, coupled with limited ozone monitoring in developing nations, has left scientists unable to answer the most basic questions: Is ozone continuing to decline in nations with strong emission controls? To what extent is ozone increasing in the developing world? IGAC's Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) has been designed to answer these questions and this presentation will show the results from the TOAR-Climate initiative, focusing on the present-day distribution and trends of global tropospheric ozone from satellite observations. Five satellite products based on OMI (2 products using two different retrieval methods) and IASI (also 2 products using two different retrieval methods) and the OMI/MLS combined product were intercompared. An important result is the close agreement among the five products regarding the quantification of the total mass of all tropospheric ozone, the so called tropospheric ozone burden (TOB). The mean estimate for TOB between 60° N and 60° S is 296 Tg, with all products agreeing within ± 4%. However, on a regional basis the five satellite products have notable differences and there is no agreement in terms of ozone trends over the past decade. Continuing work is exploring the causes of these differences.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data

PubMed Central

Hegglin, M. I.; Plummer, D. A.; Shepherd, T. G.; Scinocca, J. F.; Anderson, J.; Froidevaux, L.; Funke, B.; Hurst, D.; Rozanov, A.; Urban, J.; von Clarmann, T.; Walker, K. A.; Wang, H. J.; Tegtmeier, S.; Weigel, K.

2017-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. PMID:29263751

Variation trend of snowfall in the Kamikochi region of the Japanese Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, K.

2017-12-01

The Japanese Alps experience exceptionally heavy snowfall, extreme even by global standards, and in spring and summer the melting snow becomes a valuable water resource. The snow effectively acts as a natural dam when it accumulates in watersheds during winter. However, there have been no observations of the amount of snow in high-altitude regions of Japan. Therefore, we cannot discuss the effect of global warming on the change in the amount of snow in these regions based on direct observation data. We were, however, able to obtain climatic and hydrologic data for high-altitude sites in the Japanese Alps, and discuss the variations in these conditions in the Kamikochi region (altitude 1490 m-3190 m) of the Japanese Alps over a 68-year period using these observed data. No long-term trends are observed in the annual mean, maximum, or minimum temperatures at Taisho-ike from 1945 to 2012; the total annual precipitation shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The annual total snowfall at Taisho-ike from 1969 to 2012 shows a statistically significant increasing trend. The annual total runoff of the Azusa River from 1945 to 2012 shows a statistically significant increasing trend, as does the snowmelt runoff to the river (which occurs from May to July). We can thus conclude that the annual snowfall in the Azusa River catchment has increased in recent years.

Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data.

PubMed

Hegglin, M I; Plummer, D A; Shepherd, T G; Scinocca, J F; Anderson, J; Froidevaux, L; Funke, B; Hurst, D; Rozanov, A; Urban, J; von Clarmann, T; Walker, K A; Wang, H J; Tegtmeier, S; Weigel, K

2014-01-01

Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.

A Categorical Content Analysis of Highly Cited Literature Related to Trends and Issues in Special Education.

PubMed

Arden, Sarah V; Pentimonti, Jill M; Cooray, Rochana; Jackson, Stephanie

2017-07-01

This investigation employs categorical content analysis processes as a mechanism to examine trends and issues in a sampling of highly cited (100+) literature in special education journals. The authors had two goals: (a) broadly identifying trends across publication type, content area, and methodology and (b) specifically identifying articles with disaggregated outcomes for students with learning disabilities (LD). Content analyses were conducted across highly cited (100+) articles published during a 20-year period (1992-2013) in a sample ( n = 3) of journals focused primarily on LD, and in one broad, cross-categorical journal recognized for its impact in the field. Results indicated trends in the article type (i.e., commentary and position papers), content (i.e., reading and behavior), and methodology (i.e., small proportions of experimental and quasi-experimental designs). Results also revealed stability in the proportion of intervention research studies when compared to previous analyses and a decline in the proportion of those that disaggregated data specifically for students with LD.

Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

PubMed

Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

2015-10-01

To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Israel: 1980–2012

PubMed Central

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Silverman, Barbara G.

2016-01-01

Objectives: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing worldwide, while mortality from thyroid cancer is stable or decreasing. Consequently, survival rates are rising. We describe time trends in the incidence, mortality, and 5-year survival of thyroid cancer in Israel in 1980–2012, in light of the global trends. Methods: Israel National Cancer Registry database provided information regarding thyroid cancer incidence and vital status, which enabled computation of survival rates. The Central Bureau of Statistics database provided information on thyroid cancer mortality. Incidence and mortality rates were age-adjusted and presented by population group (Jews/Arabs) and gender. Relative 5-year survival rates which account for the general population survival in the corresponding time period were presented by population group and gender. Joinpoint analyses were used to assess incidence trends over time. Results: In 1980–2012 significant increases in the incidence of thyroid cancer were observed, with an annual percent change (APC) range of 3.98–6.93, driven almost entirely by papillary carcinoma (APCs 5.75–8.86), while rates of other types of thyroid cancer remained stable or decreased. Furthermore, higher rates of early detection were noted. In 1980–2012, a modest reduction in thyroid cancer mortality was observed in Jewish women (APC −1.07) with no substantial change in Jewish men. The 5-year relative survival after thyroid cancer diagnosis has increased to ≥90% in both population groups and both genders. Conclusions: The Israeli secular trends of thyroid cancer incidence (increasing), mortality (mostly stable), and survival (modestly increasing) closely follow reported global trends. PMID:26886958

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004-2014: a multi-exponential approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandolfi, Marco; Alastuey, Andrés; Pérez, Noemi; Reche, Cristina; Castro, Iria; Shatalov, Victor; Querol, Xavier

2016-09-01

In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background), located in the northeast (NE) of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004-2014) were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann-Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10) showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN) and Montseny (MSY) during 2004-2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V-Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic) and from the industrial (metallurgy mainly) source at BCN

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Optically driven oscillations of ellipsoidal particles. Part I: experimental observations.

PubMed

Mihiretie, B M; Snabre, P; Loudet, J-C; Pouligny, B

2014-12-01

We report experimental observations of the mechanical effects of light on ellipsoidal micrometre-sized dielectric particles, in water as the continuous medium. The particles, made of polystyrene, have shapes varying between near disk-like (aspect ratio k = 0.2) to very elongated needle-like (k = 8). Rather than the very tightly focused beam geometry of optical tweezers, we use a moderately focused laser beam to manipulate particles individually by optical levitation. The geometry allows us varying the longitudinal position of the particle, and to capture images perpendicular to the beam axis. Experiments show that moderate-k particles are radially trapped with their long axis lying parallel to the beam. Conversely, elongated (k > 3) or flattened (k < 0.3) ellipsoids never come to rest, and permanently "dance" around the beam, through coupled translation-rotation motions. The oscillations are shown to occur in general, be the particle in bulk water or close to a solid boundary, and may be periodic or irregular. We provide evidence for two bifurcations between static and oscillating states, at k ≈ 0.33 and k ≈ 3 for oblate and prolate ellipsoids, respectively. Based on a recently developed 2-dimensional ray-optics simulation (Mihiretie et al., EPL 100, 48005 (2012)), we propose a simple model that allows understanding the physical origin of the oscillations.

The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

2017-04-01

Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

PubMed

Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

2014-08-01

Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Long-term trend of satellite-observed significant wave height and impact on ecosystem in the East/Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae

2017-09-01

Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.

Experimental observation of Fano effect in Ag nanoparticle-CdTe quantum dot hybrid system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurung, Sabina; Jayabalan, J.; Singh, Asha; Khan, Salahuddin; Chari, Rama

2018-04-01

We have experimentally measured the optical properties of Ag nanoparticle-CdTe quantum dot hybrid system and compared it with that of bare CdTe quantum dot colloid. It has been shown that the photoluminescence line shape of CdTe quantum dots becomes asymmetric in presence of Ag nanoparticles. The observed changes in the PL spectrum closely match the expected changes in the line shape due to Fano interaction between discrete level and continuum levels. Our experiment shows that a very small fraction of metal nanoparticles in the metal-semiconductor hybrid is sufficient to induce such changes in line shape which is in contrary to the earlier reported theoretical prediction on metal-semiconductor hybrid.

Chandra Observations and Models of the Mixed Morphology Supernova Remnant W44: Global Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, R. L.; Kuntz, K. D.; Petre, R.

2004-01-01

We report on the Chandra observations of the archetypical mixed morphology (or thermal composite) supernova remnant, W44. As with other mixed morphology remnants, W44's projected center is bright in thermal X-rays. It has an obvious radio shell, but no discernable X-ray shell. In addition, X-ray bright knots dot W44's image. The spectral analysis of the Chandra data show that the remnant s hot, bright projected center is metal-rich and that the bright knots are regions of comparatively elevated elemental abundances. Neon is among the affected elements, suggesting that ejecta contributes to the abundance trends. Furthermore, some of the emitting iron atoms appear to be underionized with respect to the other ions, providing the first potential X-ray evidence for dust destruction in a supernova remnant. We use the Chandra data to test the following explanations for W44's X-ray bright center: 1.) entropy mixing due to bulk mixing or thermal conduction, 2.) evaporation of swept up clouds, and 3.) a metallicity gradient, possibly due to dust destruction and ejecta enrichment. In these tests, we assume that the remnant has evolved beyond the adiabatic evolutionary stage, which explains the X-ray dimness of the shell. The entropy mixed model spectrum was tested against the Chandra spectrum for the remnant's projected center and found to be a good match. The evaporating clouds model was constrained by the finding that the ionization parameters of the bright knots are similar to those of the surrounding regions. While both the entropy mixed and the evaporating clouds models are known to predict centrally bright X-ray morphologies, their predictions fall short of the observed brightness gradient. The resulting brightness gap can be largely filled in by emission from the extra metals in and near the remnant's projected center. The preponderance of evidence (including that drawn from other studies) suggests that W44's remarkable morphology can be attributed to dust destruction

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi Bian

2018-01-01

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

Trends in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the great lakes atmosphere.

PubMed

Sun, Ping; Blanchard, Pierrette; Brice, Kenneth A; Hites, Ronald A

2006-10-15

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations were measured in both the vapor and particle phases at seven sites near the Great Lakes as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network. Lower molecular weight PAHs, including fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthrene, and pyrene, were dominant in the vapor phase, and higher molecular weight PAHs, including chrysene, benzo[a]pyrene, and coronene, were dominant in the particle phase. The highest PAH concentrations in both the vapor and particle phases were observed in Chicago followed by the semiurban site at Sturgeon Point, NY. The spatial difference of PAH concentrations can be explained by the local population density. Long-term decreasing trends of most PAH concentrations were observed in both the vapor and particle phases at Chicago, with half-lives ranging from 3-10 years in the vapor phase and 5-15 years in the particle phase. At Eagle Harbor, Sleeping Bear Dunes, and Sturgeon Point, total PAH concentrations in the vapor phase showed significant, but slow, long-term decreasing trends. At the Sturgeon Point site, which was impacted by a nearby city, particle-phase PAH concentrations also declined. However, most particle-phase PAH concentrations did not show significant long-term decreasing trends at the remote sites. Seasonal trends were also observed for particle-phase PAH concentrations, which were higher in the winter and lower in the summer.

Trends in snowfall versus rainfall in the Western United States--Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Knowles, N.; Cayan, D. R.

2015-12-01

Knowles et al. (J. Climate, 2006) documented long-term (1949-2004) trends in precipitation form, with a smaller fraction of precipitation falling, in recent decades, on days with reported snow compared to days when no snow was reported (and when precipitation was presumably rain). This precipitation-amount-corrected trend was found at three-quarters of 261 cooperative weather stations across the region. The trends correlated with corresponding trends towards warmer winter air temperatures at the weather stations involved. An update of those analyses through the more recent period indicates that the overall swing towards less precipitation fraction occurring on snowy days has continued through the intervening years, with 21st Century rain/snow fractions remaining significantly higher than historical norms at most stations. The same data have also been used to develop site-specific statistical relations between precipitation form (snowy-day precipitation vs purely rainy day) and air temperatures by logistical regressions at over 200 stations across the West, to determine whether the general temperature trends mentioned above have, in fact, been large enough to explain the trending precipitation forms. That is, were the warming trends detected across the West large enough to actually raise temperatures above the local snow-rain thresholds at most stations? The regression relations show that the temperature at which half of the wet days have been snowy historically varies, from station to station, across a range from -2ºC to +4ºC. Thus at some stations winter storm temperatures would have to rise above about -2ºC to markedly impact precipitation forms, while at other stations, temperature had to rise above +4ºC. Nonetheless, observed temperature trends since 1950 have been sufficient to explain the observed regional precipitation-form trends. The fitted precipitation form-temperature relations also provide a basis for estimating precipitation forms in hydrological

Historical trend in the research and development of aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spearman, M. L.

1981-01-01

Results are presented from a study of aircraft design trends undertaken to determine the relationship between research, development, test and evaluation and aircraft mission capability, requirements and objectives. It is shown that while in some cases a performance objective was the primary research driver, research was the driver in the formulation of objectives in others. Among the topics discussed are: (1) speed considerations such as compressibility, propulsion and test techniques; (2) airframe considerations such as swept, delta, trapezoidal and variable-sweep planforms and mission commonality; (3) research aircraft; (4) the recent impact of computer-aided design; (5) Soviet aircraft development approaches and (6) a comparison of Soviet and U.S. military aircraft design trends. Attention is given to experimental and prototype aircraft programs which, although cancelled, anticipated significant subsequent developments.

Hydrologic change in a coast redwood forest, Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds: implications for salmonid survival

Treesearch

Elizabeth Keppeler

2016-01-01

The 52-year record of streamflow from the Caspar Creek Experimental Watersheds shows a trend toward decreasing rainfall and streamflow during the fall season when coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) migrate upstream to spawn. Rainfall records show a slight declining trend in fall totals and a slight increasing trend in spring totals since 1962, but only November shows a...

Clinical Impact Research – how to choose experimental or observational intervention study?

PubMed Central

Malmivaara, Antti

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Interventions directed to individuals by health and social care systems should increase health and welfare of patients and customers. Aims: This paper aims to present and define a new concept Clinical Impact Research (CIR) and suggest which study design, either randomized controlled trial (RCT) (experimental) or benchmarking controlled trial (BCT) (observational) is recommendable and to consider the feasibility, validity, and generalizability issues in CIR. Methods: The new concept is based on a narrative review of the literature and on author’s idea that in intervention studies, there is a need to cover comprehensively all the main impact categories and their respective outcomes. The considerations on how to choose the most appropriate study design (RCT or BCT) were based on previous methodological studies on RCTs and BCTs and on author’s previous work on the concepts benchmarking controlled trial and system impact research (SIR). Results: The CIR covers all studies aiming to assess the impact for health and welfare of any health (and integrated social) care or public health intervention directed to an individual. The impact categories are accessibility, quality, equality, effectiveness, safety, and efficiency. Impact is the main concept, and within each impact category, both generic- and context-specific outcome measures are needed. CIR uses RCTs and BCTs. Conclusions: CIR should be given a high priority in medical, health care, and health economic research. Clinicians and leaders at all levels of health care can exploit the evidence from CIR. Key messagesThe new concept of Clinical Impact Research (CIR) is defined as a research field aiming to assess what are the impacts of healthcare and public health interventions targeted to patients or individuals.The term impact refers to all effects caused by the interventions, with particular emphasis on accessibility, quality, equality, effectiveness, safety, and efficiency. CIR uses two study

A climate trend analysis of Uganda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies observed changes in rainfall and temperature in Uganda, based on an analysis of a quality-controlled, long time series of station observations throughout Uganda. Extending recent trends forward, it also provides a current and near-future context for understanding the actual nature of climate change impacts in the country, and a basis for identifying climate adaptations that may protect and improve the country's food security.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to validate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Molnar, Gyula

2009-01-01

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

ON THE TIDAL ORIGIN OF HOT JUPITER STELLAR OBLIQUITY TRENDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dawson, Rebekah I., E-mail: rdawson@berkeley.edu

It is debated whether the two hot Jupiter populations—those on orbits misaligned from their host star's spin axis and those well-aligned—result from two migration channels or from two tidal realignment regimes. Here I demonstrate that equilibrium tides raised by a planet on its star can account for three observed spin-orbit alignment trends: the aligned orbits of hot Jupiters orbiting cool stars, the planetary mass cut-off for retrograde planets, and the stratification by planet mass of cool host stars' rotation frequencies. The first trend can be caused by strong versus weak magnetic braking (the Kraft break), rather than realignment of themore » star's convective envelope versus the entire star. The second trend can result from a small effective stellar moment of inertia participating in the tidal realignment in hot stars, enabling massive retrograde planets to partially realign to become prograde. The third trend is attributable to higher-mass planets more effectively counteracting braking to spin up their stars. Both hot and cool stars require a small effective stellar moment of inertia participating in the tidal realignment, e.g., an outer layer weakly coupled to the interior. I demonstrate via Monte Carlo that this model can match the observed trends and distributions of sky-projected misalignments and stellar rotation frequencies. I discuss implications for inferring hot Jupiter migration mechanisms from obliquities, emphasizing that even hot stars do not constitute a pristine sample.« less

Assessment of Surface Water Storage trends for increasing groundwater areas in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Chandan; Kumar, D. Nagesh

2018-07-01

Recent studies based on Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission suggested that groundwater has increased in central and southern parts of India. However, surface water, which is an equally important source of water in these semi-arid areas has not been studied yet. In the present study, the study areas were outlined based on trends in GRACE data followed by trend identification in surface water storages and checking the hypothesis of causality. Surface Water Extent (SWE) and Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) derived from Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) respectively, are selected as proxies of surface water storage (SWS). Besides SWE and SSM, trend test was performed for GRACE derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) for the study areas named as R1, R2, GOR1 and KOR1. Granger-causality test is used to test the hypothesis that rainfall is a causal factor of the inter-annual variability of SWE, SSM and TWS. Positive trends were observed in TWS for R1, R2 and GOR1 whereas SWE and SSM show increasing trends for all the study regions. Results suggest that rainfall is the granger-causal of all the storage variables for R1 and R2, the regions exhibiting the most significant positive trends in TWS.

Experimental study and modelling of water sorption/desorption isotherms on two agricultural products: Apple and carrot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timoumi, S.; Zagrouba, F.; Mihoubi, D.; Tlili, M. M.

2004-12-01

This work is focused on some properties of dried apple (Red Chief) and carrot (Misky). Water sorption isotherms of carrot and apple were investigated at three temperatures: 30, 40 and 60°C, corresponding to drying temperatures, by the static method consisting of the use of different sulphuric acid solutions. Guggenheim-Anderson-de Boer (G.A.B) model is found to describe the experimental curves better than Henderson, Hasley and Oswin models with a correlation coefficient superior to 0.97 for both products. The hysteresis phenomenon was clearly observed in the case of apple isotherms. The experimental data were also used to determine the isosteric enthalpy of desorption of apple and carrot. The isosteric enthalpy of desorption decreased with increase in moisture content and the trend became asymptotic.

Experimental observation and determination of the laser-induced frequency shift of hyperfine levels of ultracold polar molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenliang; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Jizhou; Su, Xingliang; Wang, Shen; Sovkov, Vladimir B.; Ma, Jie; Xiao, Liantuan; Jia, Suotang

2017-08-01

We report on the experimental observation and quantitative determination of the laser-induced frequency shift (LIFS) of the ultracold polar molecules formed by photoassociation (PA). The experiments are performed by detecting a series of double PA spectra with a molecular hyperfine structure, which are induced by two PA lasers with a precise and adjustable frequency reference. We find that the LIFS of the molecular hyperfine levels shows a linear dependence on PA laser intensity.

Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notz, Dirk; Marotzke, Jochem

2012-04-01

The very low summer extent of Arctic sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early-warning sign of anthropogenic global warming. For examining the validity of this claim, previously IPCC model simulations have been used. Here, we focus on the available observational record to examine if this record allows us to identify either internal variability, self-acceleration, or a specific external forcing as the main driver for the observed sea-ice retreat. We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self-acceleration as an explanation for the observed long-term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea-ice minima. Instead, the recent retreat is well described by the superposition of an externally forced linear trend and internal variability. For the externally forced trend, we find a physically plausible strong correlation only with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results hence show that the observed evolution of Arctic sea-ice extent is consistent with the claim that virtually certainly the impact of an anthropogenic climate change is observable in Arctic sea ice already today.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

PMC Formation From Space Shuttle Exhaust and Implications to Trend Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, M. H.

2012-12-01

Main engine exhaust from the space shuttle is nearly entirely water vapor and about 350 tons were injected between 100-115 km during each launch. Many observational studies showed that the meridional transport of these exhaust plumes can be much faster than either general circulation models or satellite wind climatologies predicted. The fast meridional transport is global-scale and can furthermore lead to bursts of polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs) that constitute 10-20% of the PMC ice mass during a summer season. This contribution is significant because reported PMC frequency and albedo trends since the late 20th century are typically less than 1%/year. Although the shuttle program has ended, space traffic continues virtually every week worldwide and the potential effect to the annual PMC ice budget from these smaller launch vehicles remains unquantified. Here we calculate the PMC ice mass for each northern season since 1979 from the suite of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) instruments and compare that to the inventory of water vapor injected concurrently by space traffic worldwide. Care is taken to only consider PMC observations from one part of the diurnal cycle (11.6±1.1 local time) and one latitude (70±2.5° N) so as not to contaminate long-term trend estimates with the well-known tidally induced variations of the PMC ice mass. We infer the long term PMC trend from the SBUV observations and compare that to the water vapor available from space traffic to assess the potential contribution of space traffic to the PMC trend. We find that the total amount of water vapor exhaust injected worldwide into the upper atmosphere (90-140 km) each year between 1979-2011 is on average about three times larger than the PMC ice mass observed. We also find that the PMC ice mass trend is less than 1%/year. Even after consideration of photodissociation, the water vapor exhaust available from space traffic far exceeds the PMC trend estimate and can therefore contribute