Near-infrared observations of the variable crab nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, M.; Mori, K.; Shibata, S.; Tsujimoto, M.; Misawa, T.; Burrows, D.; Kawai, N.

We present three near-infrared NIR observations of the Crab Nebula obtained with CISCO on the Subaru Telescope and Quick Infrared Camera on the University of HAWAII 88 inch Telescope The observations were performed on 2004 September 2005 February and 2005 October and were coordinated with X-ray observations obtained with the Chandra X-ray observatory within 10 days As shown in previous optical and X-ray monitoring observations outward-moving wisps and variable knots are detected also in our NIR observations The NIR variations are closely correlated with variations in the X-ray observations indicating that both variations are driven by the same physical process We discuss the origin of NIR-emitting particles based on the temporal variations as well as the spectral energy distributions of each variable component

Inter-observer variability in fetal biometric measurements.

PubMed

Kilani, Rami; Aleyadeh, Wesam; Atieleh, Luay Abu; Al Suleimat, Abdul Mane; Khadra, Maysa; Hawamdeh, Hassan M

2018-02-01

To evaluate inter-observer variability and reproducibility of ultrasound measurements for fetal biometric parameters. A prospective cohort study was implemented in two tertiary care hospitals in Amman, Jordan; Prince Hamza Hospital and Albashir Hospital. 192 women with a singleton pregnancy at a gestational age of 18-36 weeks were the participants in the study. Transabdominal scans for fetal biometric parameter measurement were performed on study participants from the period of November 2014 to March 2015. Women who agreed to participate in the study were administered two ultrasound scans for head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length. The correlation coefficient was calculated. Bland-Altman plots were used to analyze the degree of measurement agreement between observers. Limits of agreement ± 2 SD for the differences in fetal biometry measurements in proportions of the mean of the measurements were derived. Main outcome measures examine the reproducibility of fetal biometric measurements by different observers. High inter-observer inter-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was found for femur length (0.990) and abdominal circumference (0.996) where Bland-Altman plots showed high degrees of agreement. The highest degrees of agreement were noted in the measurement of abdominal circumference followed by head circumference. The lowest degree of agreement was found for femur length measurement. We used a paired-sample t-test and found that the mean difference between duplicate measurements was not significant (P > 0.05). Biometric fetal parameter measurements may be reproducible by different operators in the clinical setting with similar results. Fetal head circumference, abdominal circumference and femur length were highly reproducible. Large organized studies are needed to ensure accurate fetal measurements due to the important clinical implications of inaccurate measurements. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Variable Hard X-Ray Emission of NGC 4945 as Observed by NUSTAR

DOE PAGES

Puccetti, Simonetta; Comastri, Andrea; Fiore, Fabrizio; ...

2014-09-02

Here, we present a broadband (~0.5-79 keV) spectral and temporal analysis of multiple NuSTAR observations combined with archival Suzaku and Chandra data of NGC 4945, the brightest extragalactic source at 100 keV. We observe hard X-ray (>10 keV) flux and spectral variability, with flux variations of a factor of two on timescales of 20 ks. A variable primary continuum dominates the high-energy spectrum (>10 keV) in all states, while the reflected/scattered flux that dominates at E <10 keV stays approximately constant. From modeling the complex reflection/transmission spectrum, we derive a Compton depth along the line of sight of τThomson ~more » 2.9, and a global covering factor for the circumnuclear gas of ~0.15. This agrees with the constraints derived from the high-energy variability, which implies that most of the high-energy flux is transmitted rather than Compton-scattered. This demonstrates the effectiveness of spectral analysis at constraining the geometric properties of the circumnuclear gas, and validates similar methods used for analyzing the spectra of other bright, Compton-thick active galactic nuclei (AGNs). The lower limits on the e-folding energy are between 200 and 300 keV, consistent with previous BeppoSAX, Suzaku, and Swift Burst Alert Telescope observations. The accretion rate, estimated from the X-ray luminosity and assuming a bolometric correction typical of type 2 AGN, is in the range ~0.1-0.3 λEdd depending on the flux state. As a result, the substantial observed X-ray luminosity variability of NGC 4945 implies that large errors can arise from using single-epoch X-ray data to derive L/L Edd values for obscured AGNs.« less

Variability of attention processes in ADHD: observations from the classroom.

PubMed

Rapport, Mark D; Kofler, Michael J; Alderson, R Matt; Timko, Thomas M; Dupaul, George J

2009-05-01

Classroom- and laboratory-based efforts to study the attentional problems of children with ADHD are incongruent in elucidating attentional deficits; however, none have explored within- or between-minute variability in the classroom attentional processing in children with ADHD. High and low attention groups of ADHD children defined via cluster analysis, and 36 typically developing children, were observed while completing academic assignments in their general education classrooms. All children oscillated between attentive and inattentive states; however, children in both ADHD groups switched states more frequently and remained attentive for shorter durations relative to typically developing children. Overall differences in attention and optimal ability to maintain attention among the groups are consistent with laboratory studies of increased ADHD-related interindividual and intergroup variability but inconsistent with laboratory results of increased intra-individual variability and attention decrements over time.

On measuring bird habitat: influence of observer variability and sample size

Treesearch

William M. Block; Kimberly A. With; Michael L. Morrison

1987-01-01

We studied the effects of observer variability when estimating vegetation characteristics at 75 0.04-ha bird plots. Observer estimates were significantly different for 31 of 49 variables. Multivariate analyses showed significant interobserver differences for five of the seven classes of variables studied. Variable classes included the height, number, and diameter of...

New Observations of the Martian Ionosphere and its Variability - An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopf, Andrew J.

2017-04-01

The Martian ionosphere is a highly variable system, owed to the strong influence of the Sun on its properties and behavior, particularly at higher altitudes. Recent measurements from the MAVEN and Mars Express spacecraft have allowed for a more complete understanding of the ionosphere and its variability from two different perspectives. Due to the low-altitude periapsis of its orbit, MAVEN has allowed for the first in-situ ionospheric studies since Viking, yielding detailed direct measurements of the ionosphere's structure, composition, and dynamics, as well as its rate of loss to space. Mars Express has over a decade of continuous ionospheric observation of the red planet, with the unique ability to remotely sound the ionosphere. These features enable Mars Express to make long-period ionospheric measurements on each orbit, at all local times and solar zenith angles. Utilized together, these two spacecraft form a powerful observational suite that has provided new insights into this dynamic environment. This talk will highlight several important recent results in the study of the Martian ionosphere and its variability.

Photometric variability in earthshine observations.

PubMed

Langford, Sally V; Wyithe, J Stuart B; Turner, Edwin L

2009-04-01

The identification of an extrasolar planet as Earth-like will depend on the detection of atmospheric signatures or surface non-uniformities. In this paper we present spatially unresolved flux light curves of Earth for the purpose of studying a prototype extrasolar terrestrial planet. Our monitoring of the photometric variability of earthshine revealed changes of up to 23% per hour in the brightness of Earth's scattered light at around 600 nm, due to the removal of specular reflection from the view of the Moon. This variability is accompanied by reddening of the spectrum and results from a change in surface properties across the continental boundary between the Indian Ocean and Africa's east coast. Our results based on earthshine monitoring indicate that specular reflection should provide a useful tool in determining the presence of liquid water on extrasolar planets via photometric observations.

TraitEnactments as Density Distributions: The Role of Actors, Situations, and Observers in Explaining Stability and Variability

PubMed Central

Fleeson, William; Law, Mary Kate

2015-01-01

The purposes of this paper were to determine (i)whether the high consistency of individual differences in average aggregated behavior is due to actors’ personalities or to consistency in the situations those actors encounter; and(ii)whether the surprisingly high within-person variability in trait enactment is a real phenomenon corroborated by observers, or merely in individuals’ heads. Although traits are supposed to describe what individuals are like in everyday life, little evidence exists about the enactment of trait content in everyday life. Past experience-sampling studies have found both highly variable and highly consistent trait enactment, but were restricted to self-report data and to naturally occurring situations. The current study used experience-sampling in controlled lab environments with 97 targets and 183 observers to address these shortcomings. Targets attended hour-long lab sessions 20x each and observers rated targets’ behavior. Parameters of distributions were highly consistent (r’s ~ .80), revealing that actors were responsible for consistency, not situations. Nonetheless, observer ratings revealed that most variability in trait enactment was within-person, confirming that even when people put it on the line in ways that affect others, they still varied rapidly in the traits they enacted. In the face of two historically vexing objections to traits, this paper supports the density distributions model of traits and argues that trait conceptualizations must accommodate large within-person variability. PMID:26348598

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability using High-Resolution Cloud Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, P. M.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.

2016-12-01

Norris and da Silva recently published a method to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation (CDA). The gridcolumn model includes assumed-PDF intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used are MODIS cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. The new approach not only significantly reduces mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated observables, but also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other CDA methods, is the lack of information content in passive cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud-top and thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard is helpful, better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

The Variable Hard X-Ray Emission of NGC4945 as Observed by NuSTAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Puccetti, Simonetta; Comastri, Andrea; Fiore, Fabrizio; Arevalo, Patricia; Risaliti, Guido; Bauer, Franz E.; Brandt, William N.; Stern, Daniel; Harrison, Fiona A.; Alexander, David M.;

Temporal Variability of Observed and Simulated Hyperspectral Earth Reflectance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Yolanda; Pilewskie, Peter; Kindel, Bruce; Feldman, Daniel; Collins, William D.

2012-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system designed to study Earth's climate variability with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) were developed using GCM output and MODTRAN to simulate CLARREO reflectance measurements during the 21st century as a design tool for the CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager. With OSSE simulations of hyperspectral reflectance, Feldman et al. [2011a,b] found that shortwave reflectance is able to detect changes in climate variables during the 21st century and improve time-to-detection compared to broadband measurements. The OSSE has been a powerful tool in the design of the CLARREO imager and for understanding the effect of climate change on the spectral variability of reflectance, but it is important to evaluate how well the OSSE simulates the Earth's present-day spectral variability. For this evaluation we have used hyperspectral reflectance measurements from the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY), a shortwave spectrometer that was operational between March 2002 and April 2012. To study the spectral variability of SCIAMACHY-measured and OSSE-simulated reflectance, we used principal component analysis (PCA), a spectral decomposition technique that identifies dominant modes of variability in a multivariate data set. Using quantitative comparisons of the OSSE and SCIAMACHY PCs, we have quantified how well the OSSE captures the spectral variability of Earth?s climate system at the beginning of the 21st century relative to SCIAMACHY measurements. These results showed that the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets share over 99% of their total variance in 2004. Using the PCs and the temporally distributed reflectance spectra projected onto the PCs (PC scores), we can study the temporal variability of the observed and simulated reflectance spectra. Multivariate time

Longitudinal Ionospheric Variability Observed by LITES on the ISS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, A. W.; Finn, S. C.; Cook, T.; Geddes, G.; Chakrabarti, S.; Budzien, S. A.

2017-12-01

The Limb-Imaging Ionospheric and Thermospheric Extreme-Ultraviolet Spectrograph (LITES) is an imaging spectrograph designed to measure altitude profiles (150-350 km) of extreme- and far-ultraviolet airglow emissions that originate from photochemical processes in the ionosphere and thermosphere. During the daytime, LITES observes the bright O+ 83.4 nm emission from which the ionospheric profile can be inferred. At night, recombination emissions at 91.1 and 135.6 nm provide a direct measure of the electron content along the line of sight. LITES was launched and installed on the International Space Station (ISS) in late February 2017 where it has been operating along with the highly complementary GPS Radio Occultation and Ultraviolet Photometry - Colocated (GROUP-C) experiment. We will present some of the first observations from LITES in April 2017 that show longitudinal patterns in ionospheric density and the daily variability in those patterns. LITES vertical imaging from a vantage point near 410 km enables a particularly unique perspective on the altitude of the ionospheric peak density at night that can complement and inform other ground- and space-based measurements, and track the longitude-altitude variability that is reflective of changes in equatorial electrodynamics.

Observations of cataclysmic variables with IUE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, L.; Raymond, J.

1981-01-01

Observations are reported of the cataclysmic variables AN UMa, 2AO311-227, VV Pup, DQ Her, and GK Per. Continuum emission was detected in the short wavelength region in DQ Her. This object exhibits a quasi-blackbody spectrum at short wavelengths, such blackbody components are a common property of the variables AM Her, SS Cyg, and U Gem, suggesting an underlying similarity in the activity of these diverse systems. Flat continuum components at longer wavelengths in general are not compatible with standard disk models. The emission line ratios in AE Aqr are anomalous in that C IV is absent to a very low level relative to N V.

SPITZER OBSERVATIONS OF LONG-TERM INFRARED VARIABILITY AMONG YOUNG STELLAR OBJECTS IN CHAMAELEON I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flaherty, Kevin M.; Herbst, William; DeMarchi, Lindsay

Infrared variability is common among young stellar objects, with surveys finding daily to weekly fluctuations of a few tenths of a magnitude. Space-based observations can produce highly sampled infrared light curves, but are often limited to total baselines of about 1 month due to the orientation of the spacecraft. Here we present observations of the Chameleon I cluster, whose low declination makes it observable by the Spitzer Space Telescope over a 200-day period. We observe 30 young stellar objects with a daily cadence to better sample variability on timescales of months. We find that such variability is common, occurring inmore » ∼80% of the detected cluster members. The change in [3.6]–[4.5] color over 200 days for many of the sources falls between that expected for extinction and fluctuations in disk emission. With our high cadence and long baseline we can derive power spectral density curves covering two orders of magnitude in frequency and find significant power at low frequencies, up to the boundaries of our 200-day survey. Such long timescales are difficult to explain with variations driven by the interaction between the disk and stellar magnetic field, which has a dynamical timescale of days to weeks. The most likely explanation is either structural or temperature fluctuations spread throughout the inner ∼0.5 au of the disk, suggesting that the intrinsic dust structure is highly dynamic.« less

Observing campaign on 5 variables in Cygnus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2015-10-01

Dr. George Wallerstein (University of Washington) has requested AAVSO assistance in monitoring 5 variable stars in Cygnus now through December 2015. He is working to complete the radial velocity curves for these stars, and needs optical light curves for correlation with the spectra he will be obtaining. Wallerstein writes: "I need to know the time of max or min so I can assign a phase to each spectrum. Most classical Cepheids are quite regular so once a time of max or min can be established I can derive the phase of each observation even if my obs are several cycles away from the established max or min. MZ Cyg is a type II Cepheid and they are less regular than their type I cousins." SZ Cyg, X Cyg, VX Cyg, and TX Cyg are all classical Cepheids. V and visual observations are requested. These are long-period Cepheids, so nightly observations are sufficient. Finder charts with sequence may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (https://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. See full Alert Notice for more details.

High-resolution TNG spectra of T Tauri stars. Near-IR GIANO observations of the young variables XZ Tauri and DR Tauri

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoniucci, S.; Nisini, B.; Biazzo, K.; Giannini, T.; Lorenzetti, D.; Sanna, N.; Harutyunyan, A.; Origlia, L.; Oliva, E.

2017-10-01

Aims: We aim to characterise the star-disk interaction region in T Tauri stars that show photometric and spectroscopic variability. Methods: We used the GIANO instrument at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo to obtain near-infrared high-resolution spectra (R 50 000) of XZ Tau and DR Tau, which are two actively accreting T Tauri stars classified as EXors. Equivalent widths and profiles of the observed features are used to derive information on the properties of the inner disk, the accretion columns, and the winds. Results: Both sources display composite H I line profiles, where contributions from both accreting gas and high-velocity winds can be recognised. These lines are progressively more symmetric and narrower with increasing upper energy which may be interpreted in terms of two components with different decrements or imputed to self-absorption effects. XZ Tau is observed in a relatively high state of activity with respect to literature observations. The variation of the He I 1.08 μm line blue-shifted absorption, in particular, suggests that the inner wind has undergone a dramatic change in its velocity structure, connected with a recent accretion event. DR Tau has a more stable wind as its He I 1.08 μm absorption does not show variations with time in spite of strong variability of the emission component. The IR veiling in the two sources can be interpreted as due to blackbody emission at temperatures of 1600 K and 2300 K for XZ Tau and DR Tau, respectively, with emitting areas 30 times larger than the central star. While for XZ Tau these conditions are consistent with emission from the inner rim of the dusty disk, the fairly high temperature inferred for DR Tau might suggest that its veiling originates from a thick gaseous disk located within the dust sublimation radius. Strong and broad metallic lines, mainly from C I and Fe I, are detected in XZ Tau, similar to those observed in other EXor sources during burst phases. At variance, DR Tau shows weaker and

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, D. A.; Cahalan, R. F.

1983-01-01

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Caroline Furness and the Evolution of Visual Variable Star Observing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Kristine

2017-01-01

An Introduction to the Study of Variable Stars by Dr. Caroline Ellen Furness (1869-1936), Director of the Vassar College Observatory, was published in October 2015. Issued in honor of the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of Vassar College, the work was meant to fill a void in the literature, namely as both an introduction to the topic of variable stars as well as a manual explaining how they should be observed and the resulting data analyzed. It was judged to be one of the hundred best books written by an American woman in the last hundred years at the 1933 World’s Fair in Chicago. The book covers the relevant history of and background on types of variable stars, star charts, catalogs, and the magnitude scale, then describes observing techniques, including visual, photographic, and photoelectric photometry. The work finishes with a discussion of light curves and patterns of variability, with a special emphasis on eclipsing binaries and long period variables. Furness’s work is therefore a valuable snapshot of the state of astronomical knowledge, technology, and observing techniques from a century ago. Furness’s book and its reception in the scientific community are analyzed, and parallels with (and departures from) the current advice given by the AAVSO to beginning variable star observers today are highlighted.

Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer observations of the magnetic cataclysmic variable RE 1938-461

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, John K.; Vallerga, John V.; Mauche, Christopher W.; Mukai, Koji; Siegmund, Oswald H. W.

1993-01-01

The magnetic cataclysmic variable RE 1938-461 was observed by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) Deep Survey instrument on 1992 July 8-9 during in-orbit calibration. It was detected in the Lexan/ boron (65-190 A) band, with a quiescent count rate of 0.0062 +/- 0.0017/s, and was not detected in the aluminum/carbon (160-360 A) band. The Lexan/boron count rate is lower than the corresponding ROSAT wide-field camera Lexan/boron count rate. This is consistent with the fact that the source was in a low state during an optical observation performed just after the EUVE observation, whereas it was in an optical high state during the ROSAT observation. The quiescent count rates are consistent with a virtual cessation of accretion. Two transient events lasting about 1 hr occurred during the Lexan/boron pointing, the second at a count rate of 0.050 +/- 0.006/s. This appears to be the first detection of an EUV transient during the low state of a magnetic cataclysmic variable. We propose two possible explanations for the transient events.

Replicates in high dimensions, with applications to latent variable graphical models.

PubMed

Tan, Kean Ming; Ning, Yang; Witten, Daniela M; Liu, Han

2016-12-01

In classical statistics, much thought has been put into experimental design and data collection. In the high-dimensional setting, however, experimental design has been less of a focus. In this paper, we stress the importance of collecting multiple replicates for each subject in this setting. We consider learning the structure of a graphical model with latent variables, under the assumption that these variables take a constant value across replicates within each subject. By collecting multiple replicates for each subject, we are able to estimate the conditional dependence relationships among the observed variables given the latent variables. To test the null hypothesis of conditional independence between two observed variables, we propose a pairwise decorrelated score test. Theoretical guarantees are established for parameter estimation and for this test. We show that our proposal is able to estimate latent variable graphical models more accurately than some existing proposals, and apply the proposed method to a brain imaging dataset.

Using present day observations to detect when ocean acidification exceeds natural variability of surface seawater Ωaragonite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.

2016-02-01

One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is the need to better understand the magnitude of long-term change in the context of natural variability. High-frequency moored observations can be highly effective in defining interannual, seasonal, and subseasonal variability at key locations. Here we present monthly aragonite saturation state (Ωaragonite) climatology for 15 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater pCO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2009. We then use these present day surface mooring observations to estimate pre-industrial variability at each location and compare these results to previous modeling studies addressing global-scale variability and change. Our observations suggest that open oceans sites, especially in the subtropics, are experiencing Ωaragonite values throughout much of the year which are outside the range of pre-industrial values. In coastal and coral reef ecosystems, which have higher natural variability, seasonal patterns where present day Ωaragonite values exceeding pre-industrial bounds are emerging with some sites exhibiting subseasonal conditions approaching Ωaragonite = 1. Linking these seasonal patterns in carbonate chemistry to biological processes in these regions is critical to identify when and where marine life may encounter Ωaragonite values outside the conditions to which they have adapted.

Galactic water vapor emission: further observations of variability.

PubMed

Knowles, S H; Mayer, C H; Sullivan, W T; Cheung, A C

1969-10-10

Recent observations of the 1.35-centimeter line emission of water vapor from galactic sources show short-term variability in the spectra of several sources. Two additional sources, Cygnus 1 and NGC 6334N, have been observed, and the spectra of W49 and VY Canis Majoris were measured over a wider range of radial velocity.

Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marley, Mark S.; Kepler Giant Planet Variability Team, Spitzer Ice Giant Variability Team

2016-10-01

Over the past several years a number of of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigan et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015). Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of ˜60○, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and exoplanet

Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marley, Mark Scott

2016-01-01

Over the past several years a number of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigen et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015).Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of approximately 60 deg, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and

Estimating Latent Variable Interactions With Non-Normal Observed Data: A Comparison of Four Approaches

PubMed Central

Cham, Heining; West, Stephen G.; Ma, Yue; Aiken, Leona S.

2012-01-01

A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to investigate the robustness of four latent variable interaction modeling approaches (Constrained Product Indicator [CPI], Generalized Appended Product Indicator [GAPI], Unconstrained Product Indicator [UPI], and Latent Moderated Structural Equations [LMS]) under high degrees of non-normality of the observed exogenous variables. Results showed that the CPI and LMS approaches yielded biased estimates of the interaction effect when the exogenous variables were highly non-normal. When the violation of non-normality was not severe (normal; symmetric with excess kurtosis < 1), the LMS approach yielded the most efficient estimates of the latent interaction effect with the highest statistical power. In highly non-normal conditions, the GAPI and UPI approaches with ML estimation yielded unbiased latent interaction effect estimates, with acceptable actual Type-I error rates for both the Wald and likelihood ratio tests of interaction effect at N ≥ 500. An empirical example illustrated the use of the four approaches in testing a latent variable interaction between academic self-efficacy and positive family role models in the prediction of academic performance. PMID:23457417

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method.

PubMed

Norris, Peter M; da Silva, Arlindo M

2016-07-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-Gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-Resolution Cloud Observations. Part 1: Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norris, Peter M.; Da Silva, Arlindo M.

2016-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference on a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution cloud observations. Part 1: Method

PubMed Central

Norris, Peter M.; da Silva, Arlindo M.

2018-01-01

A method is presented to constrain a statistical model of sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution satellite cloud data. The method can be used for large-scale model parameter estimation or cloud data assimilation. The gridcolumn model includes assumed probability density function (PDF) intra-layer horizontal variability and a copula-based inter-layer correlation model. The observables used in the current study are Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud-top pressure, brightness temperature and cloud optical thickness, but the method should be extensible to direct cloudy radiance assimilation for a small number of channels. The algorithm is a form of Bayesian inference with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to characterizing the posterior distribution. This approach is especially useful in cases where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach is not gradient-based and allows jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. The current study uses a skewed-triangle distribution for layer moisture. The article also includes a discussion of the Metropolis and multiple-try Metropolis versions of MCMC. PMID:29618847

Critical discussion of evaluation parameters for inter-observer variability in target definition for radiation therapy.

PubMed

Fotina, I; Lütgendorf-Caucig, C; Stock, M; Pötter, R; Georg, D

2012-02-01

Inter-observer studies represent a valid method for the evaluation of target definition uncertainties and contouring guidelines. However, data from the literature do not yet give clear guidelines for reporting contouring variability. Thus, the purpose of this work was to compare and discuss various methods to determine variability on the basis of clinical cases and a literature review. In this study, 7 prostate and 8 lung cases were contoured on CT images by 8 experienced observers. Analysis of variability included descriptive statistics, calculation of overlap measures, and statistical measures of agreement. Cross tables with ratios and correlations were established for overlap parameters. It was shown that the minimal set of parameters to be reported should include at least one of three volume overlap measures (i.e., generalized conformity index, Jaccard coefficient, or conformation number). High correlation between these parameters and scatter of the results was observed. A combination of descriptive statistics, overlap measure, and statistical measure of agreement or reliability analysis is required to fully report the interrater variability in delineation.

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Cataclysmic variables to be monitored for HST observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2012-09-01

Drs. Boris Gaensicke (Warwick University), Joseph Patterson (Columbia University, Center for Backyard Astrophysics), and Arne Henden (AAVSO), on behalf of a consortium of 16 astronomers, requested the help of AAVSO observers in monitoring the ~40 cataclysmic variables in support of Hubble Space Telescope observations in the coming months. The HST COS (Cosmic Origins Spectrograph) will be carrying out far-ultraviolet spectroscopy of ~40 CVs sequentially, with the aim to measure the temperatures, atmospheric compositions, rotation rates, and eventually masses of their white dwarfs. The primary purpose of the monitoring is to know whether each target is in quiescence immediately prior to the observation window; if it is in outburst it will be too bright for the HST instrumentation. Based on the information supplied by the AAVSO, the HST scheduling team will make the decision (usually) the evening before the scheduled observing time as to whether to go forward with the HST observations. For CCD observers, simultaneous photometry [shortly before, during, and after the HST observations] would be ideal. B filter would be best for a light curve, although for the magnitude estimates, V would be best. Finder charts may be created using the AAVSO Variable Star Plotter (http://www.aavso.org/vsp). Observations should be submitted to the AAVSO International Database. If the target is seen in outburst, please contact the AAVSO immediately and post a message to the Observations and Campaigns & Observations Reports forum (http://www.aavso.org/forum). This campaign will run the better part of a year or longer. See full Alert Notice for more details and list of objects.

Inter-observer variability within BI-RADS and RANZCR mammographic density assessment schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damases, Christine N.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; McEntee, Mark F.

2016-03-01

This study compares variability associated with two visual mammographic density (MD) assessment methods using two separate samples of radiologists. The image test-set comprised of images obtained from 20 women (age 42-89 years). The images were assessed for their MD by twenty American Board of Radiology (ABR) examiners and twenty-six radiologists registered with the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists (RANZCR). Images were assessed using the same technology and conditions, however the ABR radiologists used the BI-RADS and the RANZCR radiologists used the RANZCR breast density synoptic. Both scales use a 4-point assessment. The images were then grouped as low- and high-density; low including BIRADS 1 and 2 or RANZCR 1 and 2 and high including BI-RADS 3 and 4 or RANZCR 3 and 4. Four-point BI-RADS and RANZCR showed no or negligible correlation (ρ=-0.029 p<0.859). The average inter-observer agreement on the BI-RADS scale had a Kappa of 0.565; [95% CI = 0.519 - 0.610], and ranged between 0.328-0.669 while the inter-observer agreement using the RANZCR scale had a Kappa of 0.360; [95% CI = 0.308 - 0.412] and a range of 0.078-0.499. Our findings show a wider range of inter-observer variability among RANZCR registered radiologists than the ABR examiners.

Observations of red-giant variable stars by Aboriginal Australians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, Duane W.

2018-04-01

Aboriginal Australians carefully observe the properties and positions of stars, including both overt and subtle changes in their brightness, for subsistence and social application. These observations are encoded in oral tradition. I examine two Aboriginal oral traditions from South Australia that describe the periodic changing brightness in three pulsating, red-giant variable stars: Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis), Aldebaran (Alpha Tauri), and Antares (Alpha Scorpii). The Australian Aboriginal accounts stand as the only known descriptions of pulsating variable stars in any Indigenous oral tradition in the world. Researchers examining these oral traditions over the last century, including anthropologists and astronomers, missed the description of these stars as being variable in nature as the ethnographic record contained several misidentifications of stars and celestial objects. Arguably, ethnographers working on Indigenous Knowledge Systems should have academic training in both the natural and social sciences.

A data-model synthesis to explain variability in calcification observed during a CO2 perturbation mesocosm experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna, Shubham; Schartau, Markus

2017-04-01

The effect of ocean acidification on growth and calcification of the marine algae Emiliania huxleyi was investigated in a series of mesocosm experiments where enclosed water volumes that comprised a natural plankton community were exposed to different carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Calcification rates observed during those experiments were found to be highly variable, even among replicate mesocosms that were subject to similar CO2 perturbations. Here, data from an ocean acidification mesocosm experiment are reanalysed with an optimality-based dynamical plankton model. According to our model approach, cellular calcite formation is sensitive to variations in CO2 at the organism level. We investigate the temporal changes and variability in observations, with a focus on resolving observed differences in total alkalinity and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC). We explore how much of the variability in the data can be explained by variations of the initial conditions and by the level of CO2 perturbation. Nine mesocosms of one experiment were sorted into three groups of high, medium, and low calcification rates and analysed separately. The spread of the three optimised ensemble model solutions captures most of the observed variability. Our results show that small variations in initial abundance of coccolithophores and the prevailing physiological acclimation states generate differences in calcification that are larger than those induced by ocean acidification. Accordingly, large deviations between optimal mass flux estimates of carbon and of nitrogen are identified even between mesocosms that were subject to similar ocean acidification conditions. With our model-based data analysis we document how an ocean acidification response signal in calcification can be disentangled from the observed variability in PIC.

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region. In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process. In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving

Variability of indication criteria in knee and hip replacement: an observational study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. Methods The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated. The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. Results The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high

Variability of indication criteria in knee and hip replacement: an observational study.

PubMed

Cobos, Raquel; Latorre, Amaia; Aizpuru, Felipe; Guenaga, Jose I; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Escobar, Antonio; García, Lidia; Herrera-Espiñeira, Carmen

2010-10-26

Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated.The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high variability was detected in

Quantifying Spatial and Seasonal Variability in Atmospheric Ammonia with In Situ and Space-Based Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinder, Robert W.; Walker, John T.; Bash, Jesse O.; Cady-Pereira, Karen E.; Henze, Daven K.; Luo, Mingzhao; Osterman, Gregory B.; Shepard, Mark W.

2011-01-01

Ammonia plays an important role in many biogeochemical processes, yet atmospheric mixing ratios are not well known. Recently, methods have been developed for retrieving NH3 from space-based observations, but they have not been compared to in situ measurements. We have conducted a field campaign combining co-located surface measurements and satellite special observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Our study includes 25 surface monitoring sites spanning 350 km across eastern North Carolina, a region with large seasonal and spatial variability in NH3. From the TES spectra, we retrieve a NH3 representative volume mixing ratio (RVMR), and we restrict our analysis to times when the region of the atmosphere observed by TES is representative of the surface measurement. We find that the TES NH3 RVMR qualitatively captures the seasonal and spatial variability found in eastern North Carolina. Both surface measurements and TES NH3 show a strong correspondence with the number of livestock facilities within 10 km of the observation. Furthermore, we find that TES H3 RVMR captures the month-to-month variability present in the surface observations. The high correspondence with in situ measurements and vast spatial coverage make TES NH3 RVMR a valuable tool for understanding regional and global NH3 fluxes.

Conspicuous plumage colours are highly variable

PubMed Central

Szecsenyi, Beatrice; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Peters, Anne

2017-01-01

Elaborate ornamental traits are often under directional selection for greater elaboration, which in theory should deplete underlying genetic variation. Despite this, many ornamental traits appear to remain highly variable and how this essential variation is maintained is a key question in evolutionary biology. One way to address this question is to compare differences in intraspecific variability across different types of traits to determine whether high levels of variation are associated with specific trait characteristics. Here we assess intraspecific variation in more than 100 plumage colours across 55 bird species to test whether colour variability is linked to their level of elaboration (indicated by degree of sexual dichromatism and conspicuousness) or their condition dependence (indicated by mechanism of colour production). Conspicuous colours had the highest levels of variation and conspicuousness was the strongest predictor of variability, with high explanatory power. After accounting for this, there were no significant effects of sexual dichromatism or mechanisms of colour production. Conspicuous colours may entail higher production costs or may be more sensitive to disruptions during production. Alternatively, high variability could also be related to increased perceptual difficulties inherent to discriminating highly elaborate colours. Such psychophysical effects may constrain the exaggeration of animal colours. PMID:28100823

Conspicuous plumage colours are highly variable.

PubMed

Delhey, Kaspar; Szecsenyi, Beatrice; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Peters, Anne

2017-01-25

Elaborate ornamental traits are often under directional selection for greater elaboration, which in theory should deplete underlying genetic variation. Despite this, many ornamental traits appear to remain highly variable and how this essential variation is maintained is a key question in evolutionary biology. One way to address this question is to compare differences in intraspecific variability across different types of traits to determine whether high levels of variation are associated with specific trait characteristics. Here we assess intraspecific variation in more than 100 plumage colours across 55 bird species to test whether colour variability is linked to their level of elaboration (indicated by degree of sexual dichromatism and conspicuousness) or their condition dependence (indicated by mechanism of colour production). Conspicuous colours had the highest levels of variation and conspicuousness was the strongest predictor of variability, with high explanatory power. After accounting for this, there were no significant effects of sexual dichromatism or mechanisms of colour production. Conspicuous colours may entail higher production costs or may be more sensitive to disruptions during production. Alternatively, high variability could also be related to increased perceptual difficulties inherent to discriminating highly elaborate colours. Such psychophysical effects may constrain the exaggeration of animal colours. © 2017 The Author(s).

Uncertain Classification of Variable Stars: Handling Observational GAPS and Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, Nicolás; Protopapas, Pavlos; Pichara, Karim

2018-01-01

Automatic classification methods applied to sky surveys have revolutionized the astronomical target selection process. Most surveys generate a vast amount of time series, or “lightcurves,” that represent the brightness variability of stellar objects in time. Unfortunately, lightcurves’ observations take several years to be completed, producing truncated time series that generally remain without the application of automatic classifiers until they are finished. This happens because state-of-the-art methods rely on a variety of statistical descriptors or features that present an increasing degree of dispersion when the number of observations decreases, which reduces their precision. In this paper, we propose a novel method that increases the performance of automatic classifiers of variable stars by incorporating the deviations that scarcity of observations produces. Our method uses Gaussian process regression to form a probabilistic model of each lightcurve’s observations. Then, based on this model, bootstrapped samples of the time series features are generated. Finally, a bagging approach is used to improve the overall performance of the classification. We perform tests on the MAssive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) catalogs, results show that our method effectively classifies some variability classes using a small fraction of the original observations. For example, we found that RR Lyrae stars can be classified with ~80% accuracy just by observing the first 5% of the whole lightcurves’ observations in the MACHO and OGLE catalogs. We believe these results prove that, when studying lightcurves, it is important to consider the features’ error and how the measurement process impacts it.

Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier

2018-02-01

The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.

OBSERVATIONS OF THERMAL FLARE PLASMA WITH THE EUV VARIABILITY EXPERIMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren, Harry P.; Doschek, George A.; Mariska, John T.

2013-06-20

One of the defining characteristics of a solar flare is the impulsive formation of very high temperature plasma. The properties of the thermal emission are not well understood, however, and the analysis of solar flare observations is often predicated on the assumption that the flare plasma is isothermal. The EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory provides spectrally resolved observations of emission lines that span a wide range of temperatures (e.g., Fe XV-Fe XXIV) and allow for thermal flare plasma to be studied in detail. In this paper we describe a method for computing the differential emission measuremore » distribution in a flare using EVE observations and apply it to several representative events. We find that in all phases of the flare the differential emission measure distribution is broad. Comparisons of EVE spectra with calculations based on parameters derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites soft X-ray fluxes indicate that the isothermal approximation is generally a poor representation of the thermal structure of a flare.« less

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with Nustar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, D. J.; Fuerst, F.; Harrison, F.; Stern, D.; Bachetti, M.; Barret, D.; Bauer, F.; Boggs, S. E.; Christensen, F. E.; Craig, W. W.;

High-cadence, High-resolution Spectroscopic Observations of Herbig Stars HD 98922 and V1295 Aquila

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aarnio, Alicia N.; Monnier, John D.; Calvet, Nuria

Recent observational work has indicated that mechanisms for accretion and outflow in Herbig Ae/Be star–disk systems may differ from magnetospheric accretion (MA) as it is thought to occur in T Tauri star–disk systems. In this work, we assess the temporal evolution of spectral lines probing accretion and mass loss in Herbig Ae/Be systems and test for consistency with the MA paradigm. For two Herbig Ae/Be stars, HD 98922 (B9e) and V1295 Aql (A2e), we have gathered multi-epoch (∼years) and high-cadence (∼minutes) high-resolution optical spectra to probe a wide range of kinematic processes. Employing a line equivalent width evolution correlation metricmore » introduced here, we identify species co-evolving (indicative of common line origin) via novel visualization. We interferometrically constrain often problematically degenerate parameters, inclination and inner-disk radius, allowing us to focus on the structure of the wind, magnetosphere, and inner gaseous disk in radiative transfer models. Over all timescales sampled, the strongest variability occurs within the blueshifted absorption components of the Balmer series lines; the strength of variability increases with the cadence of the observations. Finally, high-resolution spectra allow us to probe substructure within the Balmer series’ blueshifted absorption components: we observe static, low-velocity features and time-evolving features at higher velocities. Overall, we find the observed line morphologies and variability are inconsistent with a scaled-up T Tauri MA scenario. We suggest that as magnetic field structure and strength change dramatically with increasing stellar mass from T Tauri to Herbig Ae/Be stars, so too may accretion and outflow processes.« less

Observations and a model of gravity-wave variability in the middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fritts, D. C.; Vincent, R. A.

1986-01-01

A major goal was to determine what portion of the gravity-wave frequency spectrum accounted for the majority of the momentum flux and divergence, as this has important implications for the middle atmosphere response. It was found that approx. 70% of the total flux and divergence was due to wave motions with observed periods less than 1 hour, consistent with expectations based on the shape of the observed gravity-wave spectrum (FrItts, 1984). This dominance of the momentum flux and divergence by high-frequency motions implies a potential for the modulation of those quantities by large-amplitude motions at lower frequencies. A second, striking aspect of the velocity and momentum flux data is its dramatic diurnal variability, particularly at certain levels. This variability is illustrated with the momentum flux, computed in 8-hr blocks. The dominant contributions here are due to waves with periods less than 1 hr. The variability with height and size of the mean square velocity in the west beam and the momentum flux, energed over the 3-day period. A detailed analysis of the various tidal motions present during this data interval was performed, and it was determined that variations in the zontal wind profile imposed by the diurnal tidal motion are probably responsible for the modulation of the gravity-wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes.

Understanding the Long-Term Spectral Variability of Cygnus X-1 from BATSE and ASM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zdziarski, Andrzej A.; Poutanen, Juri; Paciesas, William S.; Wen, Linqing; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We present a spectral analysis of observations of Cygnus X-1 by the RXTE/ASM (1.5-12 keV) and CGRO/BATSE (20-300 keV), including about 1200 days of simultaneous data. We find a number of correlations between intensities and hardnesses in different energy bands from 1.5 keV to 300 keV. In the hard (low) spectral state, there is a negative correlation between the ASM 1.5-12 keV flux and the hardness at any energy. In the soft (high) spectral state, the ASM flux is positively correlated with the ASM hardness (as previously reported) but uncorrelated with the BATSE hardness. In both spectral states, the BATSE hardness correlates with the flux above 100 keV, while it shows no correlation with the flux in the 20-100 keV range. At the same time, there is clear correlation between the BATSE fluxes below and above 100 keV. In the hard state, most of the variability can be explained by softening the overall spectrum with a pivot at approximately 50 keV. The observations show that there has to be another, independent variability pattern of lower amplitude where the spectral shape does not change when the luminosity changes. In the soft state, the variability is mostly caused by a variable hard (Comptonized) spectral component of a constant shape superimposed on a constant soft blackbody component. These variability patterns are in agreement with the dependence of the rms variability on the photon energy in the two states. We interpret the observed correlations in terms of theoretical Comptonization models. In the hard state, the variability appears to be driven mostly by changing flux in seed photons Comptonized in a hot thermal plasma cloud with an approximately constant power supply. In the soft state, the variability is consistent with flares of hybrid, thermal/nonthermal, plasma with variable power above a stable cold disk. Also, based on broadband pointed observations simultaneous with those of the ASM and BATSE, we find the intrinsic bolometric luminosity increases by a

Observed Differences between North American Snow Extent and Snow Depth Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Y.; Gong, G.

2006-12-01

Snow extent and snow depth are two related characteristics of a snowpack, but they need not be mutually consistent. Differences between these two variables at local scales are readily apparent. However at larger scales which interact with atmospheric circulation and climate, snow extent is typically the variable used, while snow depth is often assumed to be minor and/or mutually consistent compared to snow extent, though this is rarely verified. In this study, a new regional/continental-scale gridded dataset derived from field observations is utilized to quantitatively evaluate the relationship between snow extent and snow depth over North America. Various statistical methods are applied to assess the mutual consistency of monthly snow depth vs. snow extent, including correlations, composites and principal components. Results indicate that snow depth variations are significant in their own rights, and that depth and extent anomalies are largely unrelated, especially over broad high latitude regions north of the snowline. In the vicinity of the snowline, where precipitation and ablation can affect both snow extent and snow depth, the two variables vary concurrently, especially in autumn and spring. It is also found that deeper winter snow translates into larger snow-covered area in the subsequent spring/summer season, which suggests a possible influence of winter snow depth on summer climate. The observed lack of mutual consistency at continental/regional scales suggests that snowpack depth variations may be of sufficiently large magnitude, spatial scope and temporal duration to influence regional-hemispheric climate, in a manner unrelated to the more extensively studied snow extent variations.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

1996-08-01

The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

Variability of hydrological extreme events in East Asia and their dynamical control: a comparison between observations and two high-resolution global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freychet, N.; Duchez, A.; Wu, C.-H.; Chen, C.-A.; Hsu, H.-H.; Hirschi, J.; Forryan, A.; Sinha, B.; New, A. L.; Graham, T.; Andrews, M. B.; Tu, C.-Y.; Lin, S.-J.

2017-02-01

This work investigates the variability of extreme weather events (drought spells, DS15, and daily heavy rainfall, PR99) over East Asia. It particularly focuses on the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with high levels of the occurrence of these extreme events. Two observational datasets (APHRODITE and PERSIANN) are compared with two high-resolution global climate models (HiRAM and HadGEM3-GC2) and an ensemble of other lower resolution climate models from CMIP5. We first evaluate the performance of the high resolution models. They both exhibit good skill in reproducing extreme events, especially when compared with CMIP5 results. Significant differences exist between the two observational datasets, highlighting the difficulty of having a clear estimate of extreme events. The link between the variability of the extremes and the large scale circulation is investigated, on monthly and interannual timescales, using composite and correlation analyses. Both extreme indices DS15 and PR99 are significantly linked to the low level wind intensity over East Asia, i.e. the monsoon circulation. It is also found that DS15 events are strongly linked to the surface temperature over the Siberian region and to the land-sea pressure contrast, while PR99 events are linked to the sea surface temperature anomalies over the West North Pacific. These results illustrate the importance of the monsoon circulation on extremes over East Asia. The dependencies on of the surface temperature over the continent and the sea surface temperature raise the question as to what extent they could affect the occurrence of extremes over tropical regions in future projections.

Constraining land carbon cycle process understanding with observations of atmospheric CO2 variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collatz, G. J.; Kawa, S. R.; Liu, Y.; Zeng, F.; Ivanoff, A.

2013-12-01

We evaluate our understanding of the land biospheric carbon cycle by benchmarking a model and its variants to atmospheric CO2 observations and to an atmospheric CO2 inversion. Though the seasonal cycle in CO2 observations is well simulated by the model (RMSE/standard deviation of observations <0.5 at most sites north of 15N and <1 for Southern Hemisphere sites) different model setups suggest that the CO2 seasonal cycle provides some constraint on gross photosynthesis, respiration, and fire fluxes revealed in the amplitude and phase at northern latitude sites. CarbonTracker inversions (CT) and model show similar phasing of the seasonal fluxes but agreement in the amplitude varies by region. We also evaluate interannual variability (IAV) in the measured atmospheric CO2 which, in contrast to the seasonal cycle, is not well represented by the model. We estimate the contributions of biospheric and fire fluxes, and atmospheric transport variability to explaining observed variability in measured CO2. Comparisons with CT show that modeled IAV has some correspondence to the inversion results >40N though fluxes match poorly at regional to continental scales. Regional and global fire emissions are strongly correlated with variability observed at northern flask sample sites and in the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate though in the latter case fire emissions anomalies are not large enough to account fully for the observed variability. We discuss remaining unexplained variability in CO2 observations in terms of the representation of fluxes by the model. This work also demonstrates the limitations of the current network of CO2 observations and the potential of new denser surface measurements and space based column measurements for constraining carbon cycle processes in models.

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective

The Flux Variability of Markarian 501 in Very High Energy Gamma Rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, J.; Bond, I. H.; Boyle, P. J.; Bradbury, S. M.; Breslin, A. C.; Buckley, J. H.; Burdett, A. M.; Gordo, J. Bussons; Carter-Lewis, D. A.; Catanese, M.; Cawley, M. F.; Fegan, D. J.; Finley, J. P.; Gaidos, J. A.; Hall, T.; Hillas, A. M.; Krennrich, F.; Lamb, R. C.; Lessard, R. W.; Masterson, C.; McEnery, J. E.; Moriarty, P.; Rodgers, A. J.; Rose, H. J.; Samuelson, F. W.; Sembroski, G. H.; Srinivasan, R.; Vassiliev, V. V.; Weekes, T. C.

1999-06-01

The BL Lacertae object Markarian 501 was identified as a source of γ-ray emission at the Whipple Observatory in 1995 March. Here we present a flux variability analysis on several timescales of the 233 hr data set accumulated over 213 nights (from March 1995 to July 1998) with the Whipple Observatory 10 m atmospheric Cerenkov imaging telescope. In 1995, with the exception of a single night, the flux from Markarian 501 was constant on daily and monthly timescales and had an average flux of only 10% that of the Crab Nebula, making it the weakest very high energy source detected to date. In 1996, the average flux was approximately twice the 1995 flux and showed significant month-to-month variability. No significant day-scale variations were detected. The average γ-ray flux above ~350 GeV in the 1997 observing season rose to 1.4 times that of the Crab Nebula--14 times the 1995 discovery level--allowing a search for variability on timescales shorter than 1 day. Significant hour-scale variability was present in the 1997 data, with the shortest, observed on MJD 50,607, having a doubling time of ~2 hr. In 1998 the average emission level decreased considerably from that of 1997 (to ~20% of the Crab Nebula flux), but two significant flaring events were observed. Thus the emission from Markarian 501 shows large amplitude and rapid flux variability at very high energies, as does Markarian 421. It also shows large mean flux level variations on year-to-year timescales, behavior that has not been seen from Markarian 421 so far.

Advancing Variable Star Astronomy: The Centennial History of the American Association of Variable Star Observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Thomas R.; Saladyga, Michael

2011-05-01

Preface; Part I. Pioneers in Variable Star Astronomy Prior to 1909: 1. The emergence of variable star astronomy - a need for observations; 2. A need for observers; Part II. The Founding of the AAVSO - The William Tyler Olcott Era: 3. The amateur's amateur; 4. Amateurs in the service of science; Part III. The Leon Campbell Era: 5. Leon Campbell to the rescue; 6. Formalizing relationships; 7. The Pickering Memorial Endowment; 8. Fading of the Old Guard; 9. Growing pains and distractions; Part IV. The Service Bureau - The Margaret Mayall Era: 10. Learning about independence; 11. Eviction from Harvard College Observatory; 12. Actions and reactions; 13. In search of a home; 14. Survival on Brattle Street; 15. AAVSO achievements; 16. Breathing room on Concord Avenue; Part V. Analysis and Science: The Janet Mattei Era: 17. The growth of a director; 18. Learning the ropes the hard way; 19. Managing with renewed confidence; 20. Expanding the scientific charter; Part VI. Accelerating Observational Science - The Arne Henden Era: 21. Bridging the gap; 22. Accelerating the science - the Henden era begins; Epilogue; Appendices; Index.

Short-term variability and mass loss in Be stars. II. Physical taxonomy of photometric variability observed by the Kepler spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivinius, Th.; Baade, D.; Carciofi, A. C.

2016-09-01

Context. Classical Be stars have been established as pulsating stars. Space-based photometric monitoring missions contributed significantly to that result. However, whether Be stars are just rapidly rotating SPB or β Cep stars, or whether they have to be understood differently, remains debated in the view of their highly complex power spectra. Aims: Kepler data of three known Be stars are re-visited to establish their pulsational nature and assess the properties of additional, non-pulsational variations. The three program stars turned out to be one inactive Be star, one active, continuously outbursting Be star, and one Be star transiting from a non-outbursting into an outbursting phase, thus forming an excellent sample to distill properties of Be stars in the various phases of their life-cycle. Methods: The Kepler data was first cleaned from any long-term variability with Lomb-Scargle based pre-whitening. Then a Lomb-Scargle analysis of the remaining short-term variations was compared to a wavelet analysis of the cleaned data. This offers a new view on the variability, as it enables us to see the temporal evolution of the variability and phase relations between supposed beating phenomena, which are typically not visualized in a Lomb-Scargle analysis. Results: The short-term photometric variability of Be stars must be disentangled into a stellar and a circumstellar part. The stellar part is on the whole not different from what is seen in non-Be stars. However, some of the observed phenomena might be to be due to resonant mode coupling, a mechanism not typically considered for B-type stars. Short-term circumstellar variability comes in the form of either a group of relatively well-defined, short-lived frequencies during outbursts, which are called Štefl frequencies, and broad bumps in the power spectra, indicating aperiodic variability on a time scale similar to typical low-order g-mode pulsation frequencies, rather than true periodicity. Conclusions: From a

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Observations and Models of Highly Intermittent Phytoplankton Distributions

PubMed Central

Mandal, Sandip; Locke, Christopher; Tanaka, Mamoru; Yamazaki, Hidekatsu

2014-01-01

The measurement of phytoplankton distributions in ocean ecosystems provides the basis for elucidating the influences of physical processes on plankton dynamics. Technological advances allow for measurement of phytoplankton data to greater resolution, displaying high spatial variability. In conventional mathematical models, the mean value of the measured variable is approximated to compare with the model output, which may misinterpret the reality of planktonic ecosystems, especially at the microscale level. To consider intermittency of variables, in this work, a new modelling approach to the planktonic ecosystem is applied, called the closure approach. Using this approach for a simple nutrient-phytoplankton model, we have shown how consideration of the fluctuating parts of model variables can affect system dynamics. Also, we have found a critical value of variance of overall fluctuating terms below which the conventional non-closure model and the mean value from the closure model exhibit the same result. This analysis gives an idea about the importance of the fluctuating parts of model variables and about when to use the closure approach. Comparisons of plot of mean versus standard deviation of phytoplankton at different depths, obtained using this new approach with real observations, give this approach good conformity. PMID:24787740

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-Ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with NuSTAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walton, D. J.; Fuerst, F.; Harrison, F.; Stern, D.; Bachetti, M.; Barret, D.; Bauer, F.; Boggs, S. E.; Christensen, F. E.; Craig, W. W.; Fabian, A. C.; Grefenstette, B. W.; Hailey, C. J.; Madsen, K. K.; Miller, J. M.; Ptak, A.; Rana, V.; Webb, N. A.; Zhang, W. W.

2013-12-01

Following a serendipitous detection with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), we present a multi-epoch spectral and temporal analysis of an extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) located in the outskirts of the Circinus galaxy, hereafter Circinus ULX5, including coordinated XMM-Newton+NuSTAR follow-up observations. The NuSTAR data presented here represent one of the first instances of a ULX reliably detected at hard (E > 10 keV) X-rays. Circinus ULX5 is variable on long time scales by at least a factor of ~5 in flux, and was caught in a historically bright state during our 2013 observations (0.3-30.0 keV luminosity of 1.6 × 1040 erg s-1). During this epoch, the source displayed a curved 3-10 keV spectrum, broadly similar to other bright ULXs. Although pure thermal models result in a high energy excess in the NuSTAR data, this excess is too weak to be modeled with the disk reflection interpretation previously proposed to explain the 3-10 keV curvature in other ULXs. In addition to flux variability, clear spectral variability is also observed. While in many cases the interpretation of spectral components in ULXs is uncertain, the spectral and temporal properties of all the high quality data sets currently available strongly support a simple disk-corona model reminiscent of that invoked for Galactic binaries, with the accretion disk becoming more prominent as the luminosity increases. However, although the disk temperature and luminosity are well correlated across all time scales currently probed, the observed luminosity follows LvpropT 1.70 ± 0.17, flatter than expected for simple blackbody radiation. The spectral variability displayed here is highly reminiscent of that observed from known Galactic black hole binaries (BHBs) at high luminosities. This comparison implies a black hole mass of ~90 M ⊙ for Circinus ULX5. However, given the diverse behavior observed from Galactic BHB accretion disks, this mass estimate is still uncertain. Finally, the

Optical variability properties of the largest AGN sample observed with Kepler/K2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranzana, E.; Koerding, E.; Uttley, P.; Scaringi, S.; Steven, B.

2017-10-01

We present the first short time-scale ( hours to days) optical variability study of a large sample of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) observed with the Kepler/K2 mission. The sample contains 275 AGN observed over four campaigns with ˜30-minute cadence selected from the Million Quasar Catalogue with R magnitude < 19. We performed time series analysis to determine their variability properties by means of the power spectral densities (PSDs) and applied Monte Carlo techniques to find the best model parameters that fit the observed power spectra. A power-law model is sufficient to describe all the PSDs of the AGN in our sample. The average power-law slope is 2.5±0.5, steeper than the PSDs observed in X-rays, and the rest-frame amplitude variability in the frequency range of 6×10^{-6}-10^{-4} Hz varies from 1-10 % with an average of 2.6 %. We explore correlations between the variability amplitude and key parameters of the AGN, finding a significant correlation of rest-frame short-term variability amplitude with redshift, but no such correlation with luminosity. We attribute these effects to the known 'bluer when brighter variability of quasars combined with the fixed bandpass of Kepler. This study enables us to distinguish between Seyferts and Blazar and confirm AGN candidates.

Defining Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as a contribution to Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs): A Core Task of the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) to Accelerate Integration of Biological Observations in the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearlman, J.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Sousa Pinto, I.; Costello, M. J.; Duffy, J. E.; Appeltans, W.; Fischer, A. S.; Canonico, G.; Klein, E.; Obura, D.; Montes, E.; Miloslavich, P.; Howard, M.

2017-12-01

The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) is a networking effort under the umbrella of the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON). The objective of the MBON is to link existing groups engaged in ocean observation and help define practical indices to deploy in an operational manner to track changes in the number of marine species, the abundance and biomass of marine organisms, the diverse interactions between organisms and the environment, and the variability and change of specific habitats of interest. MBON serves as the biodiversity arm of Blue Planet, the initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) for the benefit of society. The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) was established under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) in 1991 to organize international ocean observing efforts. The mission of the GOOS is to support monitoring to improve the management of marine and coastal ecosystems and resources, and to enable scientific research. GOOS is engaged in a continuing, rigorous process of identifying Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs). MBON is working with GOOS and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS, also under the IOC) to define Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as those Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) that have explicit taxonomic records associated with them. For practical purposes, EBVs are a subset of the EOVs. The focus is to promote the integration of biological EOVs including EBVs into the existing and planned national and international ocean observing systems. The definition avoids a proliferation of 'essential' variables across multiple organizations. MBON will continue to advance practical and wide use of EBVs and related EOV. This is an effective way to contribute to several UN assessments (e.g., from IPBES, IPCC, and the World Ocean Assessment under the UN Regular Process), UN Sustainable Development Goals, and to address targets and goals defined under

Early-20th-century visual observations of M13 variable stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, W.; Barnard, E. E.

2016-08-01

In 1900 E. E. Barnard published 37 visual observations of Variable 2 (V2) in the globular clustter M13 made in 1899 and 1900. A review of Barnard's notebooks revealed he made many additional brightness estimates up to 1911, and he had also recorded the variations of V1 starting in 1904. These data provide the earliest-epoch light curves for these stars and thus are useful for studying their period changes. This paper presents Barnard's observations of the M13 variables along with their derived heliocentric Julian Dates and approximate V magnitudes. These include 231 unpublished observations of V2 and 94 of V1. How these data will be of value for determing period changes by these stars is described.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean P.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Moon, Seulgi; Lora, Juan Manuel

2016-10-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

Observations of GAIA-identified Cataclysmic Variables Using the TUBITAK National Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esenoglu, Hasan H.; Kirbiyik, Halil; Kaynar, Suleyman; Okuyan, Oguzhan; Hamitoglu, Irek; Galeev, Almaz; Uluc, Kadir; Kocak, Murat; Kilic, Sila E.; Parmaksizoglu, Murat; Erece, Orhan; Ozisik, Tuncay; Gulsecen, Hulusi

2016-07-01

TUBITAK National Observatory supports the GAIA alerts with observations using three telescopes (RTT150, T100, T60) at the site with a limited time quota. We have observed 10 variable stars among GAIA sources discovered in the years 2014-2016 that may be candidate Cataclysmic Variables (CVs). Our TUG observations at this stage involve photometry and spectroscopy to aid the identification of these sources. The first preliminary result of our observations of Gaia14aat among them showed a dwarf nova outburst with an amplitude of 2.69 mag. We aim to construct a GAIA astrophysics group to study CVs along with supported studies using the SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma astrophysical observatory) after the year of 2016. These observations will basically involve spectroscopy, narrow-band CCD imaging and photometry using several filters to aid the identification of these sources. RTT150 observations with very narrow filters (like H-alpha, SII, OIII with band width of range of 2 to 5 nm) will reveal whether shell around the SRG sources to aid identification novae among them.

Comment on 'All quantum observables in a hidden-variable model must commute simultaneously'

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagata, Koji

Malley discussed [Phys. Rev. A 69, 022118 (2004)] that all quantum observables in a hidden-variable model for quantum events must commute simultaneously. In this comment, we discuss that Malley's theorem is indeed valid for the hidden-variable theoretical assumptions, which were introduced by Kochen and Specker. However, we give an example that the local hidden-variable (LHV) model for quantum events preserves noncommutativity of quantum observables. It turns out that Malley's theorem is not related to the LHV model for quantum events, in general.

Optical Variability Properties of High Luminosity AGN Classes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stalin, C. S.; Gopal Krishna; Sagar, Ram; Wiita, Paul J.

2004-03-01

We present the results of a comparative study of the intranight optical variability (INOV) characteristics of radio-loud and radioquiet quasars, which involves a systematic intra-night optical monitoring of seven sets of high luminosity AGNs covering the redshift range z ' 0:2 to z ' 2:2. The sample, matched in the optical luminosity - redshift .MB?z/ plane, consists of seven radio-quiet quasars (RQQs), eight radio lobedominated quasars (LDQs), five radio core-dominated quasars (CDQs) and six BL Lac objects (BLs). Systematic CCD observations, aided by a careful data analysis procedure, have allowed us to detect INOV with amplitudes as low as about 1%. Present observations cover a total of 113 nights (720 hours) with only a single quasar monitored as continuously as possible on a given night. Considering the cases of only unambiguous detections of INOV we have estimated duty cycles (DCs) of 17%, 12%, 20% and 61% for RQQs, LDQs, CDQs, and BLs, respectively. The much lower amplitude and DC of INOV shown by RQQs compared to BLs may be understood in terms of their having optical synchrotron jets which are modestly misdirected from us. From our fairly extensive dataset, no general trend of a correlation between the INOVamplitude and the apparent optical brightness of the quasar is noticed. This suggests that the physical mechanisms of INOV and long term optical variability (LTOV) do not have a one-to-one relationship and different factors are involved. Also, the absence of a clear negative correlation between the INOV and LTOV characteristics of blazars of our sample points toward an inconspicuous contribution of accretion disk fluctuations to the observed INOV. The INOVduty cycle of theAGNs observed in this program suggests that INOV is associated predominantly with the highly polarized optical emission components. We also report new VLA imaging of two RQQs .1029C329&1252C020/ in our sample which has yielded a 5 GHz detection in one of them .1252 C 020I S5 GHz ' 1 mJy/.

Time-resolved High Spectral Resolution Observation of 2MASSW J0746425+200032AB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Ji; Mawet, Dimitri; Prato, Lisa, E-mail: ji.wang@caltech.edu

Many brown dwarfs (BDs) exhibit photometric variability at levels from tenths to tens of percents. The photometric variability is related to magnetic activity or patchy cloud coverage, characteristic of BDs near the L–T transition. Time-resolved spectral monitoring of BDs provides diagnostics of cloud distribution and condensate properties. However, current time-resolved spectral studies of BDs are limited to low spectral resolution ( R ∼ 100) with the exception of the study of Luhman 16 AB at a resolution of 100,000 using the VLT+CRIRES. This work yielded the first map of BD surface inhomogeneity, highlighting the importance and unique contribution of highmore » spectral resolution observations. Here, we report on the time-resolved high spectral resolution observations of a nearby BD binary, 2MASSW J0746425+200032AB. We find no coherent spectral variability that is modulated with rotation. Based on simulations, we conclude that the coverage of a single spot on 2MASSW J0746425+200032AB is smaller than 1% or 6.25% if spot contrast is 50% or 80% of its surrounding flux, respectively. Future high spectral resolution observations aided by adaptive optics systems can put tighter constraints on the spectral variability of 2MASSW J0746425+200032AB and other nearby BDs.« less

Recent advances in satellite observations of solar variability and global atmospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, D. F.

1974-01-01

A description is given of the temporal behavior of the sun as an ultraviolet variable star in relation to daily zonal means of atmospheric ozone from the total amount to that above the 10-mb and 4-mb pressure levels. A significant correlation has been observed between enhancements in the ultraviolet solar irradiances and terrestrial passages of the solar magnetic field sector boundary structure. However, it has not yet been possible to separate solar from the dynamical effects on the variability in the zonal means of ozone. Attention is given to global changes in ozone which have been derived from the satellite observations in terms of season, solar variability, and major stratospheric disturbances such as stratospheric warmings.

Optimal strategies for observation of active galactic nuclei variability with Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giomi, Matteo; Gerard, Lucie; Maier, Gernot

2016-07-01

Variable emission is one of the defining characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGN). While providing precious information on the nature and physics of the sources, variability is often challenging to observe with time- and field-of-view-limited astronomical observatories such as Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In this work, we address two questions relevant for the observation of sources characterized by AGN-like variability: what is the most time-efficient way to detect such sources, and what is the observational bias that can be introduced by the choice of the observing strategy when conducting blind surveys of the sky. Different observing strategies are evaluated using simulated light curves and realistic instrument response functions of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), a future gamma-ray observatory. We show that strategies that makes use of very small observing windows, spread over large periods of time, allows for a faster detection of the source, and are less influenced by the variability properties of the sources, as compared to strategies that concentrate the observing time in a small number of large observing windows. Although derived using CTA as an example, our conclusions are conceptually valid for any IACTs facility, and in general, to all observatories with small field of view and limited duty cycle.

Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Mabikwa, Onkabetse V; Greenwood, Darren C; Baxter, Paul D; Fleming, Sarah J

2017-03-14

One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology. The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described. Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards. Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger

Spatial Variability of Trace Gases During DISCOVER-AQ: Planning for Geostationary Observations of Atmospheric Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Follette-Cook, Melanie B.; Pickering, K.; Crawford, J.; Appel, W.; Diskin, G.; Fried, A.; Loughner, C.; Pfister, G.; Weinheimer, A.

2015-01-01

Results from an in-depth analysis of trace gas variability in MD indicated that the variability in this region was large enough to be observable by a TEMPO-like instrument. The variability observed in MD is relatively similar to the other three campaigns with a few exceptions: CO variability in CA was much higher than in the other regions; HCHO variability in CA and CO was much lower; MD showed the lowest variability in NO2All model simulations do a reasonable job simulating O3 variability. For CO, the CACO simulations largely under over estimate the variability in the observations. The variability in HCHO is underestimated for every campaign. NO2 variability is slightly overestimated in MD, more so in CO. The TX simulation underestimates the variability in each trace gas. This is most likely due to missing emissions sources (C. Loughner, manuscript in preparation).Future Work: Where reasonable, we will use these model outputs to further explore the resolvability from space of these key trace gases using analyses of tropospheric column amounts relative to satellite precision requirements, similar to Follette-Cook et al. (2015).

Harmonising and semantically linking key variables from in-situ observing networks of an Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System, AtlantOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darroch, Louise; Buck, Justin

2017-04-01

Atlantic Ocean observation is currently undertaken through loosely-coordinated, in-situ observing networks, satellite observations and data management arrangements at regional, national and international scales. The EU Horizon 2020 AtlantOS project aims to deliver an advanced framework for the development of an Integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System that strengthens the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and contributes to the aims of the Galway Statement on Atlantic Ocean Cooperation. One goal is to ensure that data from different and diverse in-situ observing networks are readily accessible and useable to a wider community, including the international ocean science community and other stakeholders in this field. To help achieve this goal, the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC) produced a parameter matrix to harmonise data exchange, data flow and data integration for the key variables acquired by multiple in-situ AtlantOS observing networks such as ARGO, Seafloor Mapping and OceanSITES. Our solution used semantic linking of controlled vocabularies and metadata for parameters that were "mappable" to existing EU and international standard vocabularies. An AtlantOS Essential Variables list of terms (aggregated level) based on Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables (ECV), GOOS Essential Ocean Variables (EOV) and other key network variables was defined and published on the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Vocabulary Server (version 2.0) as collection A05 (http://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/collection/A05/current/). This new vocabulary was semantically linked to standardised metadata for observed properties and units that had been validated by the AtlantOS community: SeaDataNet parameters (P01), Climate and Forecast (CF) Standard Names (P07) and SeaDataNet units (P06). Observed properties were mapped to biological entities from the internationally assured AphiaID from the WOrld Register of Marine Species (WoRMS), http

Atmospheric CO2 Variability Observed From ASCENDS Flight Campaigns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Bing; Browell, Edward; Campbell, Joel; Choi, Yonghoon; Dobler, Jeremy; Fan, Tai-Fang; Harrison, F. Wallace; Kooi, Susan; Liu, Zhaoyan; Meadows, Byron;

Observations of candidate oscillating eclipsing binaries and two newly discovered pulsating variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liakos, A.; Niarchos, P.

2009-03-01

CCD observations of 24 eclipsing binary systems with spectral types ranging between A0-F0, candidate for containing pulsating components, were obtained. Appropriate exposure times in one or more photometric filters were used so that short-periodic pulsations could be detected. Their light curves were analyzed using the Period04 software in order to search for pulsational behaviour. Two new variable stars, namely GSC 2673-1583 and GSC 3641-0359, were discov- ered as by-product during the observations of eclipsing variables. The Fourier analysis of the observations of each star, the dominant pulsation frequencies and the derived frequency spectra are also presented.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Match-to-match variability in high-speed running activity in a professional soccer team.

PubMed

Carling, Christopher; Bradley, Paul; McCall, Alan; Dupont, Gregory

2016-12-01

This study investigated variability in competitive high-speed running performance in an elite soccer team. A semi-automated tracking system quantified running performance in 12 players over a season (median 17 matches per player, 207 observations). Variability [coefficient of variation (CV)] was compared for total sprint distance (TSD, >25.2 km/h), high-speed running (HSR, 19.8-25.2 km/h), total high-speed running (THSR, ≥19.8 km/h); THSR when the team was in and out of ball possession, in individual ball possession, in the peak 5 min activity period; and distance run according to individual maximal aerobic speed (MAS). Variability for % declines in THSR and distance covered at ≥80% MAS across halves, at the end of play (final 15 min vs. mean for all 15 min periods) and transiently (5 min period following peak 5 min activity period), was analysed. Collectively, variability was higher for TSD versus HSR and THSR and lowest for distance run at ≥80% MAS (CVs: 37.1%, 18.1%, 19.8% and 11.8%). THSR CVs when the team was in/out of ball possession, in individual ball possession and during the peak 5 min period were 31.5%, 26.1%, 60.1% and 23.9%. Variability in THSR declines across halves, at the end of play and transiently, ranged from 37.1% to 142.6%, while lower CVs were observed in these metrics for running at ≥80% MAS (20.9-53.3%).These results cast doubt on the appropriateness of general measures of high-speed activity for determining variability in an elite soccer team, although individualisation of HSR thresholds according to fitness characteristics might provide more stable indicators of running performance and fatigue occurrence.

Eddy-driven low-frequency variability: physics and observability through altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penduff, Thierry; Sérazin, Guillaume; Arbic, Brian; Mueller, Malte; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Morten, Andrew J.; Scott, Robert B.

2015-04-01

Model studies have revealed the propensity of the eddying ocean circulation to generate strong low-frequency variability (LFV) intrinsically, i.e. without low-frequency atmospheric variability. In the present study, gridded satellite altimeter products, idealized quasi-geostrophic (QG) turbulent simulations, and realistic high-resolution global ocean simulations are used to study the spontaneous tendency of mesoscale (relatively high frequency and high wavenumber) kinetic energy to non-linearly cascade towards larger time and space scales. The QG model reveals that large-scale variability, arising from the well-known spatial inverse cascade, is associated with low frequencies. Low-frequency, low-wavenumber energy is maintained primarily by nonlinearities in the QG model, with forcing (by large-scale shear) and friction playing secondary roles. In realistic simulations, nonlinearities also generally drive kinetic energy to low frequencies and low wavenumbers. In some, but not all, regions of the gridded altimeter product, surface kinetic energy is also found to cascade toward low frequencies. Exercises conducted with the realistic model suggest that the spatial and temporal filtering inherent in the construction of gridded satellite altimeter maps may contribute to the discrepancies seen in some regions between the direction of frequency cascade in models versus gridded altimeter maps. Finally, the range of frequencies that are highly energized and engaged these cascades appears much greater than the range of highly energized and engaged wavenumbers. Global eddying simulations, performed in the context of the CHAOCEAN project in collaboration with the CAREER project, provide estimates of the range of timescales that these oceanic nonlinearities are likely to feed without external variability.

High-energy variability of the Pulsar binary PSR J1311-3430

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Hongjun; Fermi-LAT Collaboration

2018-01-01

We present analysis results of high-energy observations of the extreme mass-ratio black-widow millisecond pulsar binary PSR J1311-3430. Our studies in the UV, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands confirm the orbital modulation in the gamma-ray band as suggested previously. In addition, we find that the modulation is stronger in the high-energy band. In the lower-energy UV and X-ray bands, we detect flares which were observed previously and attributed to magnetic activities. We find that the optical flares are associated with the X-ray flares, suggesting common origin. We explore possible connections of the variabilities with the intrabinary shock (IBS) and magnetic activity on the low mass companion.

Problems and programming for analysis of IUE high resolution data for variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, C. A.

1981-01-01

Observations of variability in stellar winds provide an important probe of their dynamics. It is crucial however to know that any variability seen in a data set can be clearly attributed to the star and not to instrumental or data processing effects. In the course of analysis of IUE high resolution data of alpha Cam and other O, B and Wolf-Rayet stars several effects were found which cause spurious variability or spurious spectral features in our data. Programming was developed to partially compensate for these effects using the Interactive Data language (IDL) on the LASP PDP 11/34. Use of an interactive language such as IDL is particularly suited to analysis of variability data as it permits use of efficient programs coupled with the judgement of the scientist at each stage of processing.

Individual aptitude in Mandarin lexical tone perception predicts effectiveness of high-variability training

PubMed Central

Sadakata, Makiko; McQueen, James M.

2014-01-01

Although the high-variability training method can enhance learning of non-native speech categories, this can depend on individuals’ aptitude. The current study asked how general the effects of perceptual aptitude are by testing whether they occur with training materials spoken by native speakers and whether they depend on the nature of the to-be-learned material. Forty-five native Dutch listeners took part in a 5-day training procedure in which they identified bisyllabic Mandarin pseudowords (e.g., asa) pronounced with different lexical tone combinations. The training materials were presented to different groups of listeners at three levels of variability: low (many repetitions of a limited set of words recorded by a single speaker), medium (fewer repetitions of a more variable set of words recorded by three speakers), and high (similar to medium but with five speakers). Overall, variability did not influence learning performance, but this was due to an interaction with individuals’ perceptual aptitude: increasing variability hindered improvements in performance for low-aptitude perceivers while it helped improvements in performance for high-aptitude perceivers. These results show that the previously observed interaction between individuals’ aptitude and effects of degree of variability extends to natural tokens of Mandarin speech. This interaction was not found, however, in a closely matched study in which native Dutch listeners were trained on the Japanese geminate/singleton consonant contrast. This may indicate that the effectiveness of high-variability training depends not only on individuals’ aptitude in speech perception but also on the nature of the categories being acquired. PMID:25505434

Trends, interannual variability, and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane over the western Pacific observed using voluntary observing ships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terao, Y.; Kim, H.; Mukai, H.; Nojiri, Y.; Machida, T.; Tohjima, Y.; Saeki, T.; Maksyutov, S.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of trends, interannual variability (IAV), and seasonal cycle of atmospheric methane (CH4) over the western Pacific between 55N and 35S from 1994 to 2011. Observations were made by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), using voluntary observation ships sailing between Japan and Australia/New Zealand and between Japan and North America, sampling background maritime air quasi-monthly with high resolution in latitude. We found remarkable phenomena in IAV of CH4 in the northern tropics over the western Pacific: 1) the high growth rate of 20 ppb/yr in mid-1997 ahead of the global increase in 1998, 2) the suppression of CH4 growth in 2007, 3) significantly smaller amplitude of seasonal cycle in 1999-2000 and in 2008. Results from the simulation and meteorological analysis indicated that the IAV in atmospheric circulation associated with the El Nino and La Nina significantly contributed to these events. Our observations were made at sites located relatively close to the large CH4 sources of East and Southeast Asia, which resulted in the high sensitivity of measured CH4 mixing ratios in the northern tropics to changes in atmospheric transport and emissions from East and Southeast Asia. We will show the results from inverse analysis using our ship measurements as well as other global dataset. The CH4 data set we presented here would be valuable in accurately and quantitatively estimating the global CH4 budget.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Stratified Snowpack Cold Content Observed in the Rocky Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, J. S.; Sexstone, G. A.; Serreze, M. C.

2017-12-01

Snowpack cold content (CCsnow) is the energy required to bring a snowpack to an isothermal temperature of 0.0°C. The spatio-temporal variability of CCsnow is complex as it is a measure that integrates the response of a snowpack to each component of the snow-cover energy balance. Snow and ice at high elevation is climate sensitive water storage for the Western U.S. Therefore, an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal variability of CCsnow may provide insight into snowpack dynamics and sensitivity to climate change. In this study, stratified snowpit observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow temperature (Tsnow) from the USGS Rocky Mountain Snowpack network (USGS RMS) were used to evaluate vertical CCsnow profiles over a 16-year period in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. Since 1993, USGS RMS has collected snow chemistry, snow temperature, and SWE data throughout the Rocky Mountain region, making it well positioned for Anthropocene cryosphere benchmarking and climate change interpretation. Spatial grouping of locations based on similar CCsnow characteristics was evaluated and trend analyses were performed. Additionally, we evaluated the regional relation of CCsnow to snowmelt timing. CCsnow was more precisely calculated and more representative using vertically stratified field observed values than bulk values, which highlights the utility of the snowpack dataset presented here. Location specific annual and 16 year mean stratified snowpit profiles of SWE, Tsnow, and CCsnow well represent the physical geography and past weather patterns acting on the snowpack. Observed trends and spatial variability of CCsnow profiles explored by this study provides an improved understanding of changing snowpack behavior in the western U.S., and will be useful for assessing the regional sensitivity of snowpacks to future climate change.

The American Association of Variable Star Observers: Serving the Research Community in 2010 and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Templeton, Matthew R.; Henden, A. A.; Davis, K.; Kinne, R.; Watson, C.; Saladyga, M.; Waagen, E.; Beck, S.; Menali, G.; Price, A.; Turner, R.

2010-05-01

The American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) holds the largest single online database of variable star data in the world, collected from thousands of amateur and professional observers during the past century. One of our core missions is to preserve and distribute these data to the research community in service to the science of variable star astronomy. But as an organization, the AAVSO is much more than a data archive. Our services to the research community include: monitoring for and announcement of major astronomical events like novae and supernovae; organization and management of observing campaigns; support for satellite and other TOO observing programs by the professional community; creation of comparison star sequences and generation of charts for the observer community; and observational and other support for the amateur, professional, and educator communities in all things related to variable stars. As we begin a new century of variable star astronomy we invite you to take advantage of the services the AAVSO can provide, and to become a part of our organization yourselves. In this poster, we highlight some of the most important services the AAVSO can provide to the professional research community, as well as suggest ways in which your research may be enhanced with support from the AAVSO.

Analysis of Cyclic Variability of Heat Release for High-EGR GDI Engine Operation with Observations on Implications for Effective Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaul, Brian C; Wagner, Robert M; Green Jr, Johney Boyd

2013-01-01

Operation of spark-ignition (SI) engines with high levels of charge dilution through exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) achieves significant engine efficiency gains while maintaining stoichiometric operation for compatibility with three-way catalysts. Dilution levels, however, are limited by cyclic variability-including significant numbers of misfires-that becomes more pronounced with increasing dilution. This variability has been shown to have both stochastic and deterministic components. Stochastic effects include turbulence, mixing variations, and the like, while the deterministic effect is primarily due to the nonlinear dependence of flame propagation rates and ignition characteristics on the charge composition, which is influenced by the composition of residual gasesmore » from prior cycles. The presence of determinism implies that an increased understanding the dynamics of such systems could lead to effective control approaches that allow operation near the edge of stability, effectively extending the dilution limit. This nonlinear dependence has been characterized previously for homogeneous charge, port fuel-injected (PFI) SI engines operating fuel-lean as well as with inert diluents such as bottled N2 gas. In this paper, cyclic dispersion in a modern boosted gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine using a cooled external EGR loop is examined, and the potential for improvement with effective control is evaluated through the use of symbol sequence statistics and other techniques from chaos theory. Observations related to the potential implications of these results for control approaches that could effectively enable engine operation at the edge of combustion stability are noted.« less

Spatiotemporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan through High-Resolution Daily Gridded In-Situ Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashir, F.; Zeng, X.; Gupta, H. V.; Hazenberg, P.

2017-12-01

Drought as an extreme event may have far reaching socio-economic impacts on agriculture based economies like Pakistan. Effective assessment of drought requires high resolution spatiotemporally continuous hydrometeorological information. For this purpose, new in-situ daily observations based gridded analyses of precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature and diurnal temperature range are developed, that covers whole Pakistan on 0.01º latitude-longitude for a 54-year period (1960-2013). The number of participating meteorological observatories used in these gridded analyses is 2 to 6 times greater than any other similar product available. This data set is used to identify extreme wet and dry periods and their spatial patterns across Pakistan using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Periodicity of extreme events is estimated at seasonal to decadal scales. Spatiotemporal signatures of drought incidence indicating its extent and longevity in different areas may help water resource managers and policy makers to mitigate the severity of the drought and its impact on food security through suitable adaptive techniques. Moreover, this high resolution gridded in-situ observations of precipitation and temperature is used to evaluate other coarser-resolution gridded products.

The Viewing Geometry of Brown Dwarfs Influences Their Observed Colors and Variability Amplitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vos, Johanna M.; Allers, Katelyn N.; Biller, Beth A.

2017-06-01

In this paper we study the full sample of known Spitzer [3.6 μm] and J-band variable brown dwarfs. We calculate the rotational velocities, v\\sin I, of 16 variable brown dwarfs using archival Keck NIRSPEC data and compute the inclination angles of 19 variable brown dwarfs. The results obtained show that all objects in the sample with mid-IR variability detections are inclined at an angle > 20^\\circ , while all objects in the sample displaying J-band variability have an inclination angle > 35^\\circ . J-band variability appears to be more affected by inclination than Spitzer [3.6 μm] variability, and is strongly attenuated at lower inclinations. Since J-band observations probe deeper into the atmosphere than mid-IR observations, this effect may be due to the increased atmospheric path length of J-band flux at lower inclinations. We find a statistically significant correlation between the color anomaly and inclination of our sample, where field objects viewed equator-on appear redder than objects viewed at lower inclinations. Considering the full sample of known variable L, T, and Y spectral type objects in the literature, we find that the variability properties of the two bands display notably different trends that are due to both intrinsic differences between bands and the sensitivity of ground-based versus space-based searches. However, in both bands we find that variability amplitude may reach a maximum at ˜7-9 hr periods. Finally, we find a strong correlation between color anomaly and variability amplitude for both the J-band and mid-IR variability detections, where redder objects display higher variability amplitudes.

Observations from earth orbit and variability of the polar aurora on Jupiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clarke, J. T.; Moos, H. W.; Atreya, S. K.; Lane, A. L.

1980-01-01

Spatially resolved spectra of Jupiter taken with the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite show enhanced emissions from the polar regions at H L-alpha (1216 A) and in the Lyman and Werner bands of H2 (1175-1650 A). Two types of variability in emission brightness have been observed in these aurorae: an increase in the observed emission as the auroral oval rotates with Jupiter's magnetic pole to face toward the earth and a general variation in brightness of more than an order of magnitude under nearly identical observing conditions. In addition, the spectral character of these aurorae (determined by the ratio of H L-alpha to H2 brightnesses) appears variable, indicating that the depth of penetration of the auroral particles is not constant.

BAYESIAN TECHNIQUES FOR COMPARING TIME-DEPENDENT GRMHD SIMULATIONS TO VARIABLE EVENT HORIZON TELESCOPE OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore themore » robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.« less

Bayesian Techniques for Comparing Time-dependent GRMHD Simulations to Variable Event Horizon Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Junhan; Marrone, Daniel P.; Chan, Chi-Kwan; Medeiros, Lia; Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios

2016-12-01

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a millimeter-wavelength, very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) experiment that is capable of observing black holes with horizon-scale resolution. Early observations have revealed variable horizon-scale emission in the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*). Comparing such observations to time-dependent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations requires statistical tools that explicitly consider the variability in both the data and the models. We develop here a Bayesian method to compare time-resolved simulation images to variable VLBI data, in order to infer model parameters and perform model comparisons. We use mock EHT data based on GRMHD simulations to explore the robustness of this Bayesian method and contrast it to approaches that do not consider the effects of variability. We find that time-independent models lead to offset values of the inferred parameters with artificially reduced uncertainties. Moreover, neglecting the variability in the data and the models often leads to erroneous model selections. We finally apply our method to the early EHT data on Sgr A*.

Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

2017-04-01

Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

Water-vapour variability within a convective boundary-layer assessed by large-eddy simulations and IHOP_2002 observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couvreux, F.; Guichard, F.; Redelsperger, J. L.; Kiemle, C.; Masson, V.; Lafore, J. P.; Flamant, C.

2005-10-01

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the variability of water vapour in a growing convective boundary-layer (CBL) over land, highlighting the complex links between advection, convective activity and moisture heterogeneity in the boundary layer. A Large-eddy Simulation (LES) is designed, based on observations, and validated, using an independent data-set collected during the International H2O Project (IHOP 2002) fieldexperiment. Ample information about the moisture distribution in space and time, as well as other important CBL parameters are acquired by mesonet stations, balloon soundings, instruments on-board two aircraft and the DLR airborne water-vapour differential-absorption lidar. Because it can deliver two-dimensional cross-sections at high spatial resolution (140 m horizontal, 200 m vertical), the airborne lidar offers valuable insights of small-scale moisture-variability throughout the CBL. The LES is able to reproduce the development of the CBL in the morning and early afternoon, as assessed by comparisons of simulated mean profiles of key meteorological variables with sounding data. Simulated profiles of the variance of water-vapour mixing-ratio were found to be in good agreement with the lidar-derived counterparts. Finally, probability-density functions of potential temperature, vertical velocity and water-vapour mixing-ratio calculated from the LES show great consistency with those derived from aircraft in situ measurements in the middle of the CBL. Downdraughts entrained from above the CBL are governing the scale of moisture variability. Characteristic length-scales are found to be larger for water-vapour mixing-ratio than for temperature.The observed water-vapour variability exhibits contributions from different scales. The influence of the mesoscale (larger than LES domain size, i.e. 10 km) on the smaller-scale variability is assessed using LES and observations. The small-scale variability of water vapour is found to be important and to be

All quantum observables in a hidden-variable model must commute simultaneously

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malley, James D.

Under a standard set of assumptions for a hidden-variable model for quantum events we show that all observables must commute simultaneously. This seems to be an ultimate statement about the inapplicability of the usual hidden-variable model for quantum events. And, despite Bell's complaint that a key condition of von Neumann's was quite unrealistic, we show that these conditions, under which von Neumann produced the first no-go proof, are entirely equivalent to those introduced by Bell and Kochen and Specker. As these conditions are also equivalent to those under which the Bell-Clauster-Horne inequalities are derived, we see that the experimental violationsmore » of the inequalities demonstrate only that quantum observables do not commute.« less

High-speed limnology: using advanced sensors to investigate spatial variability in biogeochemistry and hydrology.

PubMed

Crawford, John T; Loken, Luke C; Casson, Nora J; Smith, Colin; Stone, Amanda G; Winslow, Luke A

2015-01-06

Advanced sensor technology is widely used in aquatic monitoring and research. Most applications focus on temporal variability, whereas spatial variability has been challenging to document. We assess the capability of water chemistry sensors embedded in a high-speed water intake system to document spatial variability. This new sensor platform continuously samples surface water at a range of speeds (0 to >45 km h(-1)) resulting in high-density, mesoscale spatial data. These novel observations reveal previously unknown variability in physical, chemical, and biological factors in streams, rivers, and lakes. By combining multiple sensors into one platform, we were able to detect terrestrial-aquatic hydrologic connections in a small dystrophic lake, to infer the role of main-channel vs backwater nutrient processing in a large river and to detect sharp chemical changes across aquatic ecosystem boundaries in a stream/lake complex. Spatial sensor data were verified in our examples by comparing with standard lab-based measurements of selected variables. Spatial fDOM data showed strong correlation with wet chemistry measurements of DOC, and optical NO3 concentrations were highly correlated with lab-based measurements. High-frequency spatial data similar to our examples could be used to further understand aquatic biogeochemical fluxes, ecological patterns, and ecosystem processes, and will both inform and benefit from fixed-site data.

High-speed limnology: Using advanced sensors to investigate spatial variability in biogeochemistry and hydrology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, John T.; Loken, Luke C.; Casson, Nora J.; Smith, Collin; Stone, Amanda G.; Winslow, Luke A.

2015-01-01

Advanced sensor technology is widely used in aquatic monitoring and research. Most applications focus on temporal variability, whereas spatial variability has been challenging to document. We assess the capability of water chemistry sensors embedded in a high-speed water intake system to document spatial variability. This new sensor platform continuously samples surface water at a range of speeds (0 to >45 km h–1) resulting in high-density, mesoscale spatial data. These novel observations reveal previously unknown variability in physical, chemical, and biological factors in streams, rivers, and lakes. By combining multiple sensors into one platform, we were able to detect terrestrial–aquatic hydrologic connections in a small dystrophic lake, to infer the role of main-channel vs backwater nutrient processing in a large river and to detect sharp chemical changes across aquatic ecosystem boundaries in a stream/lake complex. Spatial sensor data were verified in our examples by comparing with standard lab-based measurements of selected variables. Spatial fDOM data showed strong correlation with wet chemistry measurements of DOC, and optical NO3 concentrations were highly correlated with lab-based measurements. High-frequency spatial data similar to our examples could be used to further understand aquatic biogeochemical fluxes, ecological patterns, and ecosystem processes, and will both inform and benefit from fixed-site data.

Discovery and observation of BY Draconis variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bopp, B. W.; Noah, P. V.; Klimke, A.; Africano, J.

1981-10-01

The discovery of BY Draconis variables was efficiently accomplished by a spectroscopic survey of dK-M stars for weak H-alpha emissions, using 1-2 A resolution. The four BY Dra variables discovered are all spectroscopic binaries with P values lower than about 10 d, in light of which, it is noted that the onset of high surface activity and appearance of H-alpha emission occur sharply at v(equator) of approximately 5 km/sec. At v(equator) of about 3 km/sec, dK-M stars have low levels of surface activity. It is found that while there is a range of Ca II emission strength, and only the strongest emitters of this line are BY Dra and/or flare stars, the H-alpha feature changes abruptly to an emission feature signaling the onset of flaring and/or the BY Dra syndrome. An increase of the rotation rate above v(equator) 5 km/sec does not appear to increase the level of surface activity.

Diverse Long-Term Variability of Five Candidate High-Mass X-Ray Binaries from Swift Burst Alert Telescope Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corbet, Robin H. D.; Coley, Joel B.; Krimm, Hans A.

2017-01-01

We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (SWIFT-BAT). IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 seconds. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 second-pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090,which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of approximately 30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although theymight be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be starmass donors.

Diverse Long-term Variability of Five Candidate High-mass X-Ray Binaries from Swift Burst Alert Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbet, Robin H. D.; Coley, Joel B.; Krimm, Hans A.

2017-09-01

We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ˜30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.

Diverse Long-Term Variability of Five Candidate High-Mass X-ray Binaries from Swift Burst Alert Telescope Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbet, Robin; Coley, Joel Barry; Krimm, Hans A.

2017-08-01

We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. (2014). AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ˜30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.

PHOTOMETRY OF VARIABLE STARS FROM DOME A, ANTARCTICA: RESULTS FROM THE 2010 OBSERVING SEASON

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lingzhi; Zhu, Zonghong; Macri, Lucas M.

We present results from a season of observations with the Chinese Small Telescope ARray, obtained over 183 days of the 2010 Antarctic winter. We carried out high-cadence time-series aperture photometry of 9125 stars with i ∼< 15.3 mag located in a 23 deg{sup 2} region centered on the south celestial pole. We identified 188 variable stars, including 67 new objects relative to our 2008 observations, thanks to broader synoptic coverage, a deeper magnitude limit, and a larger field of view. We used the photometric data set to derive site statistics from Dome A. Based on two years of observations, wemore » find that extinction due to clouds at this site is less than 0.1 and 0.4 mag during 45% and 75% of the dark time, respectively.« less

Sea Surface Salinity Variability from Simulations and Observations: Preparing for Aquarius

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, S. Daniel; LeVine, David M.

2010-01-01

Oceanic fresh water transport has been shown to play an important role in the global hydrological cycle. Sea surface salinity (SSS) is representative of the surface fresh water fluxes and the upcoming Aquarius mission scheduled to be launched in December 2010 will provide excellent spatial and temporal SSS coverage to better estimate the net exchange. In most ocean general circulation models, SSS is relaxed to climatology to prevent model drift. While SST remains a well observed variable, relaxing to SST reduces the range of SSS variability in the simulations (Fig.1). The main objective of the present study is to simulate surface tracers using a primitive equation ocean model for multiple forcing data sets to identify and establish a baseline SSS variability. The simulated variability scales are compared to those from near-surface argo salinity measurements.

Observer variability in estimating numbers: An experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, R.M.

1982-01-01

Census estimates of bird populations provide an essential framework for a host of research and management questions. However, with some exceptions, the reliability of numerical estimates and the factors influencing them have received insufficient attention. Independent of the problems associated with habitat type, weather conditions, cryptic coloration, ete., estimates may vary widely due only to intrinsic differences in observers? abilities to estimate numbers. Lessons learned in the field of perceptual psychology may be usefully applied to 'real world' problems in field ornithology. Based largely on dot discrimination tests in the laboratory, it was found that numerical abundance, density of objects, spatial configuration, color, background, and other variables influence individual accuracy in estimating numbers. The primary purpose of the present experiment was to assess the effects of observer, prior experience, and numerical range on accuracy in estimating numbers of waterfowl from black-and-white photographs. By using photographs of animals rather than black dots, I felt the results could be applied more meaningfully to field situations. Further, reinforcement was provided throughout some experiments to examine the influence of training on accuracy.

Subtropical Gyre Variability Observed by Ocean Color Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio R.; Christian, James R.

2002-01-01

The subtropical gyres of the world are extensive, coherent regions that occupy about 40% of the surface of the earth. Once thought to be homogeneous and static habitats, there is increasing evidence that mid-latitude gyres exhibit substantial physical and biological variability on a variety of time scales. While biological productivity within these oligotrophic regions may be relatively small, their immense size makes their total contribution significant. Global distributions of dynamic height derived from satellite altimeter data, and chlorophyll concentration derived from satellite ocean color data, show that the dynamic center of the gyres, the region of maximum dynamic height where the thermocline is deepest, does not coincide with the region of minimum chlorophyll concentration. The physical and biological processes by which this distribution of ocean properties is maintained, and the spatial and temporal scales of variability associated with these processes, are analyzed using global surface chlorophyll-a concentrations, sea surface height, sea surface temperature and surface winds from operational satellite and meteorological sources, and hydrographic data from climatologies and individual surveys. Seasonal and interannual variability in the areal extent of the subtropical gyres are examined using 8 months (November 1996 - June 1997) of OCTS and nearly 5 years (September 1997 - June 02) of SeaWiFS ocean color data and are interpreted in the context of climate variability and measured changes in other ocean properties (i.e., wind forcing, surface currents, Ekman pumping, and vertical mixing). The North Pacific and North Atlantic gyres are observed to be shrinking over this period, while the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and South Indian Ocean gyres appear to be expanding.

The variables V477 Peg and MW Com observation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahý, V.; Gajtanska, M.; Hanisko, P.; Krišták, L.

2018-04-01

The paper deals with our results of the photometric observations of two variable stars and with basic interprettions of our results. We have observed the V477 Pegassi and MW Comae systems. We have obtained their light curves in the integral light and in the B, V, R and I filters. The color indices have been computed and there have been realized the models of the both systems by the usage of the BM3 software. These models are presented in our study too.

Identifying the interferences of irrigation on evapotranspiration variability over the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, R.; Cai, X.

2016-12-01

Irrigation has considerably interfered with hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid areas with heavy irrigated agriculture. With the increasing demand for food production and evaporative demand due to climate change, irrigation water consumption is expected to increase, which would aggravate the interferences to hydrologic processes. Current studies focus on the impact of irrigation on the mean value of evapotranspiration (ET) at either local or regional scale, however, how irrigation changes the variability of ET has not been well understood. This study analyzes the impact of extensive irrigation on ET variability in the Northern High Plains. We apply an ET variance decomposition framework developed from our previous work to quantify the effects of both climate and irrigation on ET variance in the Northern High Plains watersheds. Based on climate and water table observations, we assess the monthly ET variance and its components for two periods: 1930s-1960s with less irrigation development 970s-2010s with more development. It is found that irrigation not only caused the well-recognized groundwater drawdown and stream depletion problems in the region, but also buffered ET variance from climatic fluctuations. In addition to increasing food productivity, irrigation also stabilizes crop yield by mitigating the impact of hydroclimatic variability. With complementary water supply from irrigation, ET often approaches to the potential ET, and thus the observed ET variance is more attributed to climatic variables especially temperature; meanwhile irrigation causes significant seasonal fluctuations to groundwater storage. For sustainable water resources management in the Northern High Plains, we argue that both the mean value and the variance of ET should be considered together for the regulation of irrigation in this region.

Mesoscale Circulation Variability from Five years of Quasi-continuous Glider Observations and Numerical Simulation at a Key Sub-basin 'Choke' Point.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heslop, E. E.; Mourre, B.; Juza, M.; Troupin, C.; Escudier, R.; Torner, M.; Tintore, J.

2016-02-01

Quasi-continuous glider observations over 5 years have uniquely characterised a high frequency variability in the circulation through the Ibiza Channel, an important `choke' point in the Western Mediterranean Sea. This `choke' point governs the basin/sub-basin scale circulation and the north/south exchanges of different water masses. The resulting multi-scale variability impacts the regional shelf and open ocean ecosystems, including the spawning grounds of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Through the unique glider record we show the relevance of the weekly/mesoscale variability, which is of same order as the previously established seasonal and inter-annual variability. To understand the drivers of this variability we combine the glider data with numerical simulations (WMOP) and altimetry. Two key drivers are identified; extreme winter events, which cause the formation of a cold winter mode water (Winter Intermediate Water) in the shelf areas to the north of the Ibiza Channel, and mesoscale activity, which to the north produce channel `blocking' eddies and to the south intermittent and vigorous flows of fresher `Atlantic' waters through the Ibiza Channel. Results from the 2 km resolution WMOP are compared with the high-resolution (2 - 3 km.) glider data, giving insight into model validation across different scales, for both circulation and water masses. There is an emerging consensus that gliders can uniquely access critical time and length scales and in this study gliders complement existing satellite measurements and models, while opening up new capabilities for multidisciplinary, autonomous and high-resolution ocean observation.

X-ray variability of Pleiades late-type stars as observed with the ROSAT-PSPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marino, A.; Micela, G.; Peres, G.; Sciortino, S.

2003-08-01

We present a comprehensive analysis of X-ray variability of the late-type (dF7-dM) Pleiades stars, detected in all ROSAT-PSPC observations; X-ray variations on short (hours) and medium (months) time scales have been explored. We have grouped the stars in two samples: 89 observations of 42 distinct dF7-dK2 stars and 108 observations of 61 dK3-dM stars. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test applied on all X-ray photon time series show that the percentage of cases of significant variability is quite similar on both samples, suggesting that the presence of variability does not depend on mass for the time scales and mass range explored. The comparison between the Time X-ray Amplitude Distribution functions (XAD) of the set of dF7-dK2 and of the dK3-dM show that, on short time scales, dK3-dM stars show larger variations than dF7-dK2. A subsample of eleven dF7-dK2 and eleven dK3-dM Pleiades stars allows the study of variability on longer time scales: we found that variability on medium - long time scales is relatively more common among dF7-dK2 stars than among dK3-dM ones. For both dF7-dK2 Pleiades stars and dF7-dK2 field stars, the variability on short time scales depends on Lx while this dependence has not been observed among dK3-dM stars. It may be that the variability among dK3-dM stars is dominated by flares that have a similar luminosity distribution for stars of different Lx, while flaring distribution in dF7-dK2 stars may depend on X-ray luminosity. The lowest mass stars show significant rapid variability (flares?) and no evidence of rotation modulation or cycles. On the contrary, dF7-dK2 Pleiades stars show both rapid variability and variations on longer time scales, likely associated with rotational modulation or cycles.

About the relationships among variables observed in the real world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petkov, Boyan H.

2018-06-01

Since a stationary chaotic system is determined by nonlinear equations connecting its components, the appurtenance of two variables to such a system has been considered a sign of nontrivial relationships between them including also other quantities. These relationships could remain hidden for the approach usually employed in the research analyses, which is based on the extent of the correlation that characterises the dependence of one variable on the other. The appurtenance to the same system can be hypothesized if the topological features of the attractors reconstructed from two time series representing the evolution of the corresponding variables are close to each other. However, the possibility that both attractors represent different systems with similar behaviour cannot be excluded. For that reason, an approach allowing the reconstruction of the attractor by using jointly two time series was proposed and the conclusion about the common origin of the variables under study can be made if this attractor is topologically similar to those built separately from the two time series. In the present study, the features of the attractors were presented by the correlation dimension and the largest Lyapunov exponent and the proposed algorithm has been tested on numerically generated sequences obtained from various maps. It is believed that this approach could be used to reveal connections among the variables observed in experiments or field measurements.

Follow-up Observations of SDSS and CRTS Candidate Cataclysmic Variables II

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szkody, Paula; Everett, Mark E.; Dai, Zhibin; Serna-Grey, Donald

2018-01-01

Spectra of 38 candidate or known cataclysmic variables are presented. Most are candidate dwarf novae or systems containing possible highly magnetic white dwarfs, while a few (KR Aur, LS Peg, V380 Oph, and V694 Mon) are previously known objects caught in unusual states. Individual spectra are used to confirm a dwarf nova nature or other classification while radial velocities of 15 systems provide orbital periods and velocity amplitudes that aid in determining the nature of the objects. Our results substantiate a polar nature for four objects, find an eclipsing SW Sex star below the period gap, another as a likely intermediate polar, as well as two dwarf novae with periods in the middle of the gap. Based on observations obtained with the Apache Point Observatory (APO) 3.5 m telescope, which is owned and operated by the Astrophysical Research Consortium (ARC).

Titan's highly variable plasma environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, D. A.; Neubauer, F. M.

1982-02-01

It is noted that Titan's plasma environment is variable for two reasons. The variability of the solar wind is such that Titan may be located in the outer magnetosphere, the magnetosheath, or the interplanetary medium around noon Saturnian local time. What is more, there are local time variations in Saturn's magnetosphere. The location of the stagnation point of Saturn's magnetosphere is calculated, assuming a terrestrial type magnetosphere. Characteristic plasma parameters along the orbit of Titan are shown for high solar wind pressure. During crossings of the Saturnian magnetopause or bow shock by Titan, abrupt changes in the flow direction and stagnation pressure are expected, as are rapid associated changes in Titan's uppermost atmosphere.

Four Years of Venus Express Magnetic Field Observations: Variable Bow Shock Location and Other Features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tielong; Baumjohann, Wolfgang; Russell, C. T.

Since the Venus Express insertion into a highly elliptical polar orbit with a period of 24 h around the planet Venus, the magnetometer has operated continuously for about 4 years and obtained a wealth of data in the solar minimum at rather low altitude, which was not reached by earlier missions. In this paper, we review the magnetic field observations by Venus Express emphasizing on the variable bow shock location and other space environment features such as the magnetic barrier and the magnetotail.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Early observations of M13 variables (Osborn,+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, W.; Barnard, E. E.

2018-05-01

In 1900 E.E. Barnard published 37 visual observations of Variable 2 (V2) in the globular cluster M13 made in 1899 and 1900. A review of Barnard's notebooks revealed he made many additional brightness estimates up to 1911, and he had also recorded the variations of V1 starting in 1904. These data provide the earliest-epoch light curves for these stars and thus are useful for studying their period changes. This paper presents Barnard's observations of the M13 variables along with their derived heliocentric Julian dates and approximate V magnitudes. These include 231 unpublished observations of V2 and 94 of V1. How these data will be of value for determining period changes by these stars is described. (5 data files).

Observed ground-motion variabilities and implication for source properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotton, F.; Bora, S. S.; Bindi, D.; Specht, S.; Drouet, S.; Derras, B.; Pina-Valdes, J.

2016-12-01

One of the key challenges of seismology is to be able to calibrate and analyse the physical factors that control earthquake and ground-motion variabilities. Within the framework of empirical ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) developments, ground-motions residuals (differences between recorded ground motions and the values predicted by a GMPE) are computed. The exponential growth of seismological near-field records and modern regression algorithms allow to decompose these residuals into between-event and a within-event residual components. The between-event term quantify all the residual effects of the source (e.g. stress-drops) which are not accounted by magnitude term as the only source parameter of the model. Between-event residuals provide a new and rather robust way to analyse the physical factors that control earthquake source properties and associated variabilities. We first will show the correlation between classical stress-drops and between-event residuals. We will also explain why between-event residuals may be a more robust way (compared to classical stress-drop analysis) to analyse earthquake source-properties. We will finally calibrate between-events variabilities using recent high-quality global accelerometric datasets (NGA-West 2, RESORCE) and datasets from recent earthquakes sequences (Aquila, Iquique, Kunamoto). The obtained between-events variabilities will be used to evaluate the variability of earthquake stress-drops but also the variability of source properties which cannot be explained by a classical Brune stress-drop variations. We will finally use the between-event residual analysis to discuss regional variations of source properties, differences between aftershocks and mainshocks and potential magnitude dependencies of source characteristics.

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

Space Technology 5 Multipoint Observations of Temporal and Spatial Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, G.; Wang, Y.; Slavin, J. A.; Strangeway, R. L.

2009-01-01

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a constellation mission consisting of three microsatellites. It provides the first multipoint magnetic field measurements in low Earth orbit, which enables us to separate spatial and temporal variations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using the ST5 data. We examine the field-aligned current observations during and after a geomagnetic storm and compare the magnetic field profiles at the three spacecraft. The multipoint data demonstrate that mesoscale current structures, commonly embedded within large-scale current sheets, are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in approx.10 min time scales. On the other hand, the data also show that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx.1 min for mesoscale currents and approx.10 min for large-scale currents. These temporal features are very likely associated with dynamic variations of their charge carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of mesoscale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Quantitative Comparison of the Variability in Observed and Simulated Shortwave Reflectance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Yolanda, L.; Pilewskie, P.; Kindel, B. C.; Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.

2013-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is a climate observation system that has been designed to monitor the Earth's climate with unprecedented absolute radiometric accuracy and SI traceability. Climate Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) have been generated to simulate CLARREO hyperspectral shortwave imager measurements to help define the measurement characteristics needed for CLARREO to achieve its objectives. To evaluate how well the OSSE-simulated reflectance spectra reproduce the Earth s climate variability at the beginning of the 21st century, we compared the variability of the OSSE reflectance spectra to that of the reflectance spectra measured by the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY). Principal component analysis (PCA) is a multivariate decomposition technique used to represent and study the variability of hyperspectral radiation measurements. Using PCA, between 99.7%and 99.9%of the total variance the OSSE and SCIAMACHY data sets can be explained by subspaces defined by six principal components (PCs). To quantify how much information is shared between the simulated and observed data sets, we spectrally decomposed the intersection of the two data set subspaces. The results from four cases in 2004 showed that the two data sets share eight (January and October) and seven (April and July) dimensions, which correspond to about 99.9% of the total SCIAMACHY variance for each month. The spectral nature of these shared spaces, understood by examining the transformed eigenvectors calculated from the subspace intersections, exhibit similar physical characteristics to the original PCs calculated from each data set, such as water vapor absorption, vegetation reflectance, and cloud reflectance.

Addressing sub-scan variability of tundra snow properties in ground-based Ku- and X-band scatterometer observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, J. M.; Kasurak, A.; Kelly, R. E.; Duguay, C. R.; Derksen, C.; Rutter, N.; Sandells, M.; Watts, T.

2012-12-01

these measurements, continuous surfaces were generated to represent the observed snow target. Two snow pits were also completed within the field of view, quantifying vertical variability in density, permittivity, temperature, grain size, and stratigraphy. A new post-processing method is applied to divide the previously aggregated scatterometer observations into smaller sub-sets, which are then co-located with the physical snow observations. Sub-scan backscatter coefficients and their relationship to tundra snowpack parameters are then explored. The results presented here provide quantitative methods relevant to the radar observation science of snow and, therefore, to potential future space-borne missions such as the Cold Regions Hydrology High-resolution Observatory (CoReH2O), a candidate European Space Agency Earth Explorer mission. Moreover, this paper provides guidelines for future studies exploring ground-based scatterometer observations of tundra snow.

Developing priority variables ("ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables" - eEOVs) for observing dynamics and change in Southern Ocean ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constable, Andrew J.; Costa, Daniel P.; Schofield, Oscar; Newman, Louise; Urban, Edward R.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Ballerini, Tosca; Boyd, Philip W.; Brandt, Angelika; de la Mare, Willaim K.; Edwards, Martin; Eléaume, Marc; Emmerson, Louise; Fennel, Katja; Fielding, Sophie; Griffiths, Huw; Gutt, Julian; Hindell, Mark A.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Jennings, Simon; La, Hyoung Sul; McCurdy, Andrea; Mitchell, B. Greg; Moltmann, Tim; Muelbert, Monica; Murphy, Eugene; Press, Anthony J.; Raymond, Ben; Reid, Keith; Reiss, Christian; Rice, Jake; Salter, Ian; Smith, David C.; Song, Sun; Southwell, Colin; Swadling, Kerrie M.; Van de Putte, Anton; Willis, Zdenka

2016-09-01

Reliable statements about variability and change in marine ecosystems and their underlying causes are needed to report on their status and to guide management. Here we use the Framework on Ocean Observing (FOO) to begin developing ecosystem Essential Ocean Variables (eEOVs) for the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). An eEOV is a defined biological or ecological quantity, which is derived from field observations, and which contributes significantly to assessments of Southern Ocean ecosystems. Here, assessments are concerned with estimating status and trends in ecosystem properties, attribution of trends to causes, and predicting future trajectories. eEOVs should be feasible to collect at appropriate spatial and temporal scales and are useful to the extent that they contribute to direct estimation of trends and/or attribution, and/or development of ecological (statistical or simulation) models to support assessments. In this paper we outline the rationale, including establishing a set of criteria, for selecting eEOVs for the SOOS and develop a list of candidate eEOVs for further evaluation. Other than habitat variables, nine types of eEOVs for Southern Ocean taxa are identified within three classes: state (magnitude, genetic/species, size spectrum), predator-prey (diet, foraging range), and autecology (phenology, reproductive rate, individual growth rate, detritus). Most candidates for the suite of Southern Ocean taxa relate to state or diet. Candidate autecological eEOVs have not been developed other than for marine mammals and birds. We consider some of the spatial and temporal issues that will influence the adoption and use of eEOVs in an observing system in the Southern Ocean, noting that existing operations and platforms potentially provide coverage of the four main sectors of the region - the East and West Pacific, Atlantic and Indian. Lastly, we discuss the importance of simulation modelling in helping with the design of the observing system in the long

The variability of SE2 tide extracted from TIMED/SABER observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xing; Wan, Weixing; Ren, Zhipeng; Yu, You

2017-04-01

Based on the temperature observations of the SABER/TIMED, the variability of the non-migrating tide SE2 with high resolution (one-day) is analyzed, using the method from Li et al., [2015]. From the temperature observation data measured in the mesosphere and lower atmosphere region (MLT, 70-110 km altitudes) and at the low- and mid -latitudes (45S - 45N) from2002 to 2012), we obtained the non-migrating tide SE2 and further studied it in detail. It is found that the climatological features (large time scale variability and spatial distribution) of the SE2 tidal component are similar with the results from the previous researches, which are picked up from the interpolated data with 60-day resolution. The climatological features are that the SE2 tidal component manifests mainly at the low-mid latitudes around 30. The northern hemisphere tidal amplitudes below 110 km are larger than the southern hemisphere tide, at the same time, its peaks below 110 km mainly present between 100 and 110 km altitude; the tidal amplitudes below 110 km occur a north-south asymmetry about the equator in the annual variation: in the southern hemisphere, SE2 occurs with an obvious annual variation with a maximum of tidal amplitudes in December; while, in the northern one, the semi-annual variations with maximum at the equinoxes are stronger than that in the southern one. Herein, owing to the high-resolution tidal data (one day), we could research the short term (day-to-day) variations of the SE2 tide. We found that: (1) the day-to-day variations manifests mainly at the altitudes range between 100 and 110 km; (2) it increases gradually with latitudes and it is stronger at the low-mid latitudes; (3) it is relatively slightly stronger around solstices than equinoxes; (4) it does not present a remarkably inter-annual variation. Finally, the SE2 day-to-day variations may be composed by the absolute amplitudes' variance and the impact of the wave phases. In addition, the variations of

Seasonal variability of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) in recent high-top CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Dzaki; Lubis, Sandro W.; Setiawan, Sonni

2018-05-01

Tropical weather system is controlled by periodic atmospheric disturbances ranging from daily to subseasonal time scales. One of the most prominent atmospheric disturbances in the tropics is convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs). CCEWs are excited by latent heating due to a large-scale convective system and have a significant influence on weather system. They include atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave, Mixed Rossby Gravity (MRG) wave, Equatorial Rossby (ER) wave and Tropical Depression (TD-type) wave. In this study, we will evaluate the seasonal variability of CCEWs activity in nine high-top CMIP5 models, including their spatial distribution in the troposphere. Our results indicate that seasonal variability of Kelvin waves is well represented in MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR, with maximum activity occurring during boreal spring. The seasonal variability of MRG waves is well represented in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer. On the other hand, ER waves are well captured by IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR and maximize during boreal fall; while TD-type waves, with maximum activity observed during boreal summer, are well observed in CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Our results indicate that the skill of CMIP5 models in representing seasonal variability of CCEWs highly depends on the convective parameterization and the spatial or vertical resolution used by each model.

Highly variable AGN from the XMM-Newton slew survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strotjohann, N. L.; Saxton, R. D.; Starling, R. L. C.; Esquej, P.; Read, A. M.; Evans, P. A.; Miniutti, G.

2016-07-01

Aims: We investigate the properties of a variability-selected complete sample of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in order to identify the mechanisms which cause large amplitude X-ray variability on timescales of years. Methods: A complete sample of 24 sources was constructed, from AGN which changed their soft X-ray luminosity by more than one order of magnitude over 5-20 years between ROSAT observations and the XMM-Newton slew survey. Follow-up observations were obtained with the Swift satellite. We analysed the spectra of these AGN at the Swift and XMM observation epochs, where six sources had continued to display extreme variability. Multiwavelength data are used to calculate black hole masses and the relative X-ray brightness αOX. Results: After removal of two probable spurious sources, we find that the sample has global properties which differ little from a non-varying control sample drawn from the wider XMM-slew/ROSAT/Veron sample of all secure AGN detections. A wide range of AGN types are represented in the varying sample. The black hole mass distributions for the varying and non-varying sample are not significantly different. This suggests that long timescale variability is not strongly affected by black hole mass. There is marginal evidence that the variable sources have a lower redshift (2σ) and X-ray luminosity (1.7σ). Apart from two radio-loud sources, the sample sources have normal optical-X-ray ratios (αOX) when at their peak but are X-ray weak during their lowest flux measurements. Conclusions: Drawing on our results and other studies, we are able to identify a variety of variability mechanisms at play: tidal disruption events, jet activity, changes in absorption, thermal emission from the inner accretion disc, and variable accretion disc reflection. Little evidence for strong absorption is seen in the majority of the sample and single-component absorption can be excluded as the mechanism for most sources.

SABER Observations of the OH Meinel Airglow Variability Near the Mesopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, Daniel R.; Smith, Anne K.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2005-01-01

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, observes the OH Meinel emission at 2.0 m that peaks near the mesopause. The emission results from reactions between members of the oxygen and hydrogen chemical families that can be significantly affected by mesopause dynamics. In this study we compare SABER measurements of OH Meinel emission rates and temperatures with predictions from a 3-dimensional chemical dynamical model. In general, the model is capable of reproducing both the observed diurnal and seasonal OH Meinel emission variability. The results indicate that the diurnal tide has a large effect on the overall magnitude and temporal variation of the emission in low latitudes. This tidal variability is so dominant that the seasonal cycle in the nighttime emission depends very strongly on the local time of the analysis. At higher latitudes, the emission has an annual cycle that is due mainly to transport of oxygen by the seasonally reversing mean circulation.

Airborne Lidar Observations of Water Vapor Variability in the Northern Atlantic Trades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiemle, Christoph; Groß, Silke; Wirth, Martin; Bugliaro, Luca

2017-04-01

During the NARVAL (Next Generation Aircraft Remote Sensing for Validation Studies) field experiments in December 2013 and August 2016 the DLR lidar WALES (Water vapor Lidar Experiment in Space) was operated on board the German research aircraft HALO. The lidar simultaneously provided two-dimensional curtains of atmospheric backscatter and humidity along the flight track with high accuracy and spatial resolution, in order to help improve our knowledge on the coupling between water vapor, clouds, and circulation in the trades. The variability of water vapor, ubiquitous in our measurements, poses challenges to climate models because it acts on the small-scale low-cloud cover. Aloft, the very dry free troposphere in the subsiding branch of the Hadley cell acts as an open window in a greenhouse, efficiently cooling the lower troposphere. Secondary circulations between radiatively heated and cooled regions are supposed to occur, adding complexity to the situation. After recently having identified them to be mainly responsible for the uncertainty in global climate sensitivity, such interactions between shallow convection, circulation and radiation are at the heart of present scientific debate, endorsed by the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) "Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity". Out of the wealth of about 30 winter and 60 summer flight hours totaling 75000 km of data over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean east of Barbados, several representative lidar segments from different flights are presented, together with Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images and dropsonde profiles. All observations indicate high heterogeneity of the humidity in the lowest 5 km, as well as high variability of the depth of the cloud layer (1 - 2 km thick) and of the sub-cloud boundary layer ( 1 km thick). Layer depths and partial water vapor columns within the layers may vary by up to a factor of 2, and on a large range of horizontal scales. Occasionally, very dry, up

Variability in Antarctic ozone loss in the last decade (2004-2013): high-resolution simulations compared to Aura MLS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Godin-Beekmann, S.; Lefèvre, F.; Santee, M. L.; Froidevaux, L.; Hauchecorne, A.

2015-09-01

A detailed analysis of the polar ozone loss processes during 10 recent Antarctic winters is presented with high-resolution MIMOSA-CHIM (Modèle Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection avec CHIMie) model simulations and high-frequency polar vortex observations from the Aura microwave limb sounder (MLS) instrument. The high-frequency measurements and simulations help to characterize the winters and assist the interpretation of interannual variability better than either data or simulations alone. Our model results for the Antarctic winters of 2004-2013 show that chemical ozone loss starts in the edge region of the vortex at equivalent latitudes (EqLs) of 65-67° S in mid-June-July. The loss progresses with time at higher EqLs and intensifies during August-September over the range 400-600 K. The loss peaks in late September-early October, when all EqLs (65-83° S) show a similar loss and the maximum loss (> 2 ppmv - parts per million by volume) is found over a broad vertical range of 475-550 K. In the lower stratosphere, most winters show similar ozone loss and production rates. In general, at 500 K, the loss rates are about 2-3 ppbv sh-1 (parts per billion by volume per sunlit hour) in July and 4-5 ppbv sh-1 in August-mid-September, while they drop rapidly to 0 by mid-October. In the middle stratosphere, the loss rates are about 3-5 ppbv sh-1 in July-August and October at 675 K. On average, the MIMOSA-CHIM simulations show that the very cold winters of 2005 and 2006 exhibit a maximum loss of ~ 3.5 ppmv around 550 K or about 149-173 DU over 350-850 K, and the warmer winters of 2004, 2010, and 2012 show a loss of ~ 2.6 ppmv around 475-500 K or 131-154 DU over 350-850 K. The winters of 2007, 2008, and 2011 were moderately cold, and thus both ozone loss and peak loss altitudes are between these two ranges (3 ppmv around 500 K or 150 ± 10 DU). The modeled ozone loss values are in reasonably good agreement with those estimated from

High Variability of Observed Weight Bearing During Standing Foot and Ankle Radiographs.

PubMed

Miller, Christopher P; Ghorbanhoseini, Mohammad; Ehrlichman, Lauren K; Walley, Kempland C; Ghaheri, Azadeh; Kwon, John Y

2017-06-01

Weight-bearing radiographs are a critical component of evaluating foot and ankle pathology. An underlying assumption is that patients are placing 50% of their body weight on the affected foot during image acquisition. The accuracy of weight bearing during radiographs is unknown and, presumably, variable, which may result in uncertain ability of the resultant radiographs to appropriately portray the pathology of interest. Fifty subjects were tested. The percentage body weight through the foot of interest was measured at the moment of radiographic image acquisition. The subject was then instructed to bear "half [their] weight" prior to the next radiograph. The percentage body weight was calculated and compared to ideal 50% weight bearing. The mean percentage body weight in trial 1 and 2 was 45.7% ± 3.2% ( P = .012 compared to the 50% mark) and 49.2% ± 2.4%, respectively ( P = .428 compared to 50%). The mean absolute difference in percentage weight bearing compared to 50% in trials 1 and 2 was 9.3% ± 2.3% and 5.8% ± 1.8%, respectively ( P = .005). For trial 1, 18/50 subjects were within the "ideal" (45%-55%) range for weight bearing compared to 32/50 on trial 2 ( P = .005). In trial 1, 24/50 subjects had "appropriate" (>45%) weight bearing compared to 39/50 on trial 2 ( P = .002). There was substantial variability in the weight applied during radiograph acquisition. This study raises questions regarding the assumptions, reliability, and interpretation when evaluating weight-bearing radiographs. Level III, comparative study.

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

High Variability in Outcome Reporting Patterns in High-Impact ACL Literature.

PubMed

Makhni, Eric C; Padaki, Ajay S; Petridis, Petros D; Steinhaus, Michael E; Ahmad, Christopher S; Cole, Brian J; Bach, Bernard R

2015-09-16

ACL (anterior cruciate ligament) reconstruction is one of the most commonly performed and studied procedures in modern sports medicine. A multitude of objective and subjective patient outcome measures exists; however, nonstandardized reporting patterns of these metrics may create challenges in objectively analyzing pooled results from different studies. The goal of this study was to document the variability in outcome reporting patterns in high-impact orthopaedic studies of ACL reconstruction. All clinical studies pertaining to ACL reconstruction in four high-impact-factor orthopaedic journals over a five-year period were reviewed. Biomechanical, basic science, and imaging studies were excluded, as were studies with fewer than fifty patients, yielding 119 studies for review. Incorporation of various objective and subjective outcomes was noted for each study. Substantial variability in reporting of both objective and subjective measures was noted in the study cohort. Although a majority of studies reported instrumented laxity findings, there was substantial variability in the type and method of laxity reporting. Most other objective outcomes, including range of motion, strength, and complications, were reported in <50% of all studies. Return to pre-injury level of activity was infrequently reported (24% of studies), as were patient satisfaction and pain assessment following surgery (8% and 13%, respectively). Of the patient-reported outcomes, the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC), Lysholm, and Tegner scores were most often reported (71%, 63%, and 42%, respectively). Substantial variability in outcome reporting patterns exists among high-impact studies of ACL reconstruction. Such variability may create challenges in interpreting results and pooling them across different studies. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Long-term Observations of Intense Precipitation Small-scale Spatial Variability in a Semi-arid Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.

2017-12-01

In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

High inter-specimen variability of baseline data for the tibio-talar contact area.

PubMed

Matricali, Giovanni A; Bartels, Ward; Labey, Luc; Dereymaeker, Greta Ph E; Luyten, Frank P; Vander Sloten, Jos

2009-01-01

The tibio-talar contact area has been widely investigated to monitor biomechanical changes due to articular incongruities or an altered loading. This study aims to investigate for the first time in a systematic way the extent of the inter-specimen variability of the tibio-talar contact area, and its repercussions when analyzing data concerning this parameter. Ten specimens were loaded to record the tibio-talar contact characteristics by use of pressure sensitive film. The size of the talar dome area, the size of the (normalized) tibio-talar contact area, the position of the tibio-talar contact area, and the shape of the latter were determined and analyzed. Inter-specimen variability was expressed as the coefficient of variation and was calculated for the datasets of previous studies as well. The size of the tibio-talar contact area showed a very high inter-specimen variability, as is the case in previous studies. This high variability persisted when a normalized tibio-talar contact area was calculated. The shape of the tibio-talar contact area showed some basic characteristics, but a high variation in details could be observed. Every specimen can be considered to have its own "ankle print". By this variability, articular incongruities are expected to have a different effect on local biomechanical characteristics in every single individual. Therefore, every single case has to be evaluated and reported for significant changes. In case of modeling, this also underscores the need to use subject specific models fed by sets of parameters derived from a series of single specimens.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, Radley M.

Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even

Observing the Fast X-ray Spectral Variability of NLS1 1H1934-063 with XMM-Newton and NuSTAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Kara, Erin; Reynolds, Christopher S.

2017-08-01

The most variable active galactic nuclei (AGN), taken together, are a compelling wellspring of interesting accretion-related phenomena. They can exhibit dramatic variability in the X-ray band on a range of timescales down to a few minutes. We present the exemplifying case study of 1H1934-063 (z = 0.0102), a narrow-line Seyfert I (NLS1) that is among the most variable AGN ever observed with XMM-Newton. We present spectral and temporal analyses of a concurrent XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observation taken in 2015 and lasting 120 ks, during which the source exhibited a steep (factor of 1.5) plummet and subsequent full recovery of flux that we explore in detail here. Combined spectral and timing results point to a dramatic change in the continuum on timescales as short as a few ks. Similar to other highly variable Seyfert 1s, this AGN is quite X-ray bright and displays strong reflection spectral features. We find agreement with a change in the continuum, and we rule out absorption as the cause for this dramatic variability observed even at NuSTAR energies. We compare detailed time-resolved spectral fitting with Fourier-based timing analysis in order to constrain coronal geometry, dynamics, and emission/absorption processes dictating the nature of this variability. We also announce the discovery of a Fe-K time lag between the hard X-ray continuum emission (1 - 4 keV) and its relativistically-blurred reflection off the inner accretion flow (0.3 - 1 keV).

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region.

PubMed

Laxon, Seymour; Peacock, Neil; Smith, Doug

2003-10-30

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.

BONA FIDE, STRONG-VARIABLE GALACTIC LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE STARS ARE FAST ROTATORS: DETECTION OF A HIGH ROTATIONAL VELOCITY IN HR CARINAE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groh, J. H.; Damineli, A.; Moises, A. P.

2009-11-01

We report optical observations of the luminous blue variable (LBV) HR Carinae which show that the star has reached a visual minimum phase in 2009. More importantly, we detected absorptions due to Si IV lambdalambda4088-4116. To match their observed line profiles from 2009 May, a high rotational velocity of v{sub rot} approx = 150 +- 20 km s{sup -1} is needed (assuming an inclination angle of 30 deg.), implying that HR Car rotates at approx =0.88 +- 0.2 of its critical velocity for breakup (v{sub crit}). Our results suggest that fast rotation is typical in all strong-variable, bona fide galacticmore » LBVs, which present S-Dor-type variability. Strong-variable LBVs are located in a well-defined region of the HR diagram during visual minimum (the 'LBV minimum instability strip'). We suggest this region corresponds to where v{sub crit} is reached. To the left of this strip, a forbidden zone with v{sub rot}/v{sub crit}>1 is present, explaining why no LBVs are detected in this zone. Since dormant/ex LBVs like P Cygni and HD 168625 have low v{sub rot}, we propose that LBVs can be separated into two groups: fast-rotating, strong-variable stars showing S-Dor cycles (such as AG Car and HR Car) and slow-rotating stars with much less variability (such as P Cygni and HD 168625). We speculate that supernova (SN) progenitors which had S-Dor cycles before exploding (such as in SN 2001ig, SN 2003bg, and SN 2005gj) could have been fast rotators. We suggest that the potential difficulty of fast-rotating Galactic LBVs to lose angular momentum is additional evidence that such stars could explode during the LBV phase.« less

High zenith angle observations of PKS 2155-304 with the MAGIC-I telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksić, J.; Alvarez, E. A.; Antonelli, L. A.; Antoranz, P.; Asensio, M.; Backes, M.; Barres de Almeida, U.; Barrio, J. A.; Bastieri, D.; Becerra González, J.; Bednarek, W.; Berdyugin, A.; Berger, K.; Bernardini, E.; Biland, A.; Blanch, O.; Bock, R. K.; Boller, A.; Bonnoli, G.; Borla Tridon, D.; Braun, I.; Bretz, T.; Cañellas, A.; Carmona, E.; Carosi, A.; Colin, P.; Colombo, E.; Contreras, J. L.; Cortina, J.; Cossio, L.; Covino, S.; Dazzi, F.; De Angelis, A.; De Caneva, G.; De Cea del Pozo, E.; De Lotto, B.; Delgado Mendez, C.; Diago Ortega, A.; Doert, M.; Domínguez, A.; Dominis Prester, D.; Dorner, D.; Doro, M.; Eisenacher, D.; Elsaesser, D.; Ferenc, D.; Fonseca, M. V.; Font, L.; Fruck, C.; García López, R. J.; Garczarczyk, M.; Garrido, D.; Giavitto, G.; Godinović, N.; Gozzini, S. R.; Hadasch, D.; Häfner, D.; Herrero, A.; Hildebrand, D.; Höhne-Mönch, D.; Hose, J.; Hrupec, D.; Jogler, T.; Kellermann, H.; Klepser, S.; Krähenbühl, T.; Krause, J.; Kushida, J.; La Barbera, A.; Lelas, D.; Leonardo, E.; Lewandowska, N.; Lindfors, E.; Lombardi, S.; López, M.; López, R.; López-Oramas, A.; Lorenz, E.; Makariev, M.; Maneva, G.; Mankuzhiyil, N.; Mannheim, K.; Maraschi, L.; Marcote, B.; Mariotti, M.; Martínez, M.; Mazin, D.; Meucci, M.; Miranda, J. M.; Mirzoyan, R.; Moldón, J.; Moralejo, A.; Munar-Adrover, P.; Niedzwiecki, A.; Nieto, D.; Nilsson, K.; Nowak, N.; Orito, R.; Paiano, S.; Paneque, D.; Paoletti, R.; Pardo, S.; Paredes, J. M.; Partini, S.; Perez-Torres, M. A.; Persic, M.; Peruzzo, L.; Pilia, M.; Pochon, J.; Prada, F.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Prandini, E.; Puerto Gimenez, I.; Puljak, I.; Reichardt, I.; Reinthal, R.; Rhode, W.; Ribó, M.; Rico, J.; Rügamer, S.; Saggion, A.; Saito, K.; Saito, T. Y.; Salvati, M.; Satalecka, K.; Scalzotto, V.; Scapin, V.; Schultz, C.; Schweizer, T.; Shayduk, M.; Shore, S. N.; Sillanpää, A.; Sitarek, J.; Snidaric, I.; Sobczynska, D.; Spanier, F.; Spiro, S.; Stamatescu, V.; Stamerra, A.; Steinke, B.; Storz, J.; Strah, N.; Sun, S.; Surić, T.; Takalo, L.; Takami, H.; Tavecchio, F.; Temnikov, P.; Terzić, T.; Tescaro, D.; Teshima, M.; Tibolla, O.; Torres, D. F.; Treves, A.; Uellenbeck, M.; Vankov, H.; Vogler, P.; Wagner, R. M.; Weitzel, Q.; Zabalza, V.; Zandanel, F.; Zanin, R.

2012-08-01

Context. The high frequency peaked BL Lac PKS 2155-304 with a redshift of z = 0.116 was discovered in 1997 in the very high energy (VHE, E > 100 GeV) γ-ray range by the University of Durham Mark VI γ-ray Cherenkov telescope in Australia with a flux corresponding to 20% of the Crab Nebula flux. It was later observed and detected with high significance by the southern Cherenkov observatory H.E.S.S. establishing this source as the best studied southern TeV blazar. Detection from the northern hemisphere is difficult due to challenging observation conditions under large zenith angles. In July 2006, the H.E.S.S. collaboration reported an extraordinary outburst of VHE γ-emission. During the outburst, the VHE γ-ray emission was found to be variable on the time scales of minutes and with a mean flux of ~7 times the flux observed from the Crab Nebula. Follow-up observations with the MAGIC-I standalone Cherenkov telescope were triggered by this extraordinary outburst and PKS 2155-304 was observed between 28 July to 2 August 2006 for 15 h at large zenith angles. Aims: We studied the behavior of the source after its extraordinary flare. Furthermore, we developed an analysis method in order to analyze these data taken under large zenith angles. Methods: Here we present an enhanced analysis method for data taken at high zenith angles. We developed improved methods for event selection that led to a better background suppression. Results: The quality of the results presented here is superior to the results presented previously for this data set: detection of the source on a higher significance level and a lower analysis threshold. The averaged energy spectrum we derived has a spectral index of (-3.5 ± 0.2) above 400 GeV, which is in good agreement with the spectral shape measured by H.E.S.S. during the major flare on MJD 53 944. Furthermore, we present the spectral energy distribution modeling of PKS 2155-304. With our observations we increased the duty cycle of the source

High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G

2017-08-01

The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the

Strong and highly variable push of ocean waves on Southern Ocean sea ice.

PubMed

Stopa, Justin E; Sutherland, Peter; Ardhuin, Fabrice

2018-06-05

Sea ice in the Southern Ocean has expanded over most of the past 20 y, but the decline in sea ice since 2016 has taken experts by surprise. This recent evolution highlights the poor performance of numerical models for predicting extent and thickness, which is due to our poor understanding of ice dynamics. Ocean waves are known to play an important role in ice break-up and formation. In addition, as ocean waves decay, they cause a stress that pushes the ice in the direction of wave propagation. This wave stress could not previously be quantified due to insufficient observations at large scales. Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radars (SARs) provide high-resolution imagery from which wave height is measured year round encompassing Antarctica since 2014. Our estimates give an average wave stress that is comparable to the average wind stress acting over 50 km of sea ice. We further reveal highly variable half-decay distances ranging from 400 m to 700 km, and wave stresses from 0.01 to 1 Pa. We expect that this variability is related to ice properties and possibly different floe sizes and ice thicknesses. A strong feedback of waves on sea ice, via break-up and rafting, may be the cause of highly variable sea-ice properties.

Intra- and Inter-observer Variability of Measurements of the Laxity Index on Stress Radiographs Performed with the Vezzoni-Modified Badertscher Hip Distension Device.

PubMed

Bertal, Mileva; Vezzoni, Aldo; Houdellier, Blandine; Bogaerts, Evelien; Stock, Emmelie; Polis, Ingeborgh; Deforce, Dieter; Saunders, Jimmy H; Broeckx, Bart J G

2018-06-02

 To describe and evaluate the accuracy, intra- and inter-observer variability of the laxity index (LI), used to quantify hip laxity on stress radiographs obtained with the Vezzoni-modified Badertscher distension device (VMBDD).  Stress radiographs of 10 dogs obtained with the VMBDD were measured three times by an experienced observer. Six participants with different backgrounds (two ECVDI residents, two PhD students, two veterinary assistants) followed a short presentation and performed subsequently the measurements four times in two separate sessions. The effect of self-learning, feedback and specialization on the accuracy of the measurements was assessed.  While the intra- and inter-observer variability were in agreement with other studies, the results of the experienced observer indicated that the variability can be very low. Neither feedback nor self-learning improved the results. A high degree of experience in radiographic assessment was not necessary to perform the measurements correctly.  As the LI measurements were acceptable after a short presentation, they support the use of VMBDD for a complete and correct in-house evaluation of the hip joint by trained clinicians. However, we propose that, in the context of screening, measurements should be performed by a limited number of experienced examiners, to limit the impact of the inter-observer variability. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

Correlating Solar Wind Modulation with Ionospheric Variability at Mars from MEX and MAVEN Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopf, A. J.; Morgan, D. D.; Halekas, J. S.; Ruhunusiri, S.; Gurnett, D. A.; Connerney, J. E. P.

2017-12-01

The synthesis of observations by the Mars Express and Mars Atmosphere and Volatiles Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft allows for a unique opportunity to study variability in the Martian ionosphere from multiple perspectives. One major source for this variability is the solar wind. Due to its elliptical orbit which precesses over time, MAVEN periodically spends part of its orbit outside the Martian bow shock, allowing for direct measurements of the solar wind impacting the Martian plasma environment. When the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) instrument aboard Mars Express is simultaneously sounding the ionosphere, the influence from changes in the solar wind can be observed. Previous studies have suggested a positive correlation, connecting ionospheric density to the solar wind proton flux, but depended on Earth-based measurements for solar wind conditions. More recently, research has indicated that observations of ionospheric variability from these two spacecraft can be connected in special cases, such as shock wave impacts or specific solar wind magnetic field orientations. Here we extend this to more general solar wind conditions and examine how changes in the solar wind properties measured by MAVEN instruments correlate with ionospheric structure and dynamics observed simultaneously in MARSIS remote and local measurements.

Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes.

PubMed

Miloslavich, Patricia; Bax, Nicholas J; Simmons, Samantha E; Klein, Eduardo; Appeltans, Ward; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Andersen Garcia, Melissa; Batten, Sonia D; Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro; Checkley, David M; Chiba, Sanae; Duffy, J Emmett; Dunn, Daniel C; Fischer, Albert; Gunn, John; Kudela, Raphael; Marsac, Francis; Muller-Karger, Frank E; Obura, David; Shin, Yunne-Jai

2018-04-05

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure

Short-term X-ray spectral variability of the quasar PDS 456 observed in a low-flux state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzeu, G. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Nardini, E.; Braito, V.; Costa, M. T.; Tombesi, F.; Gofford, J.

2016-05-01

We present a detailed analysis of a recent, 2013 Suzaku campaign on the nearby (z = 0.184) luminous (Lbol ˜ 1047 erg s-1) quasar PDS 456. This consisted of three observations, covering a total duration of ˜1 Ms and a net exposure of 455 ks. During these observations, the X-ray flux was unusually low, suppressed by a factor of >10 in the soft X-ray band when compared to previous observations. We investigated the broad-band continuum by constructing a spectral energy distribution (SED), making use of the optical/UV photometry and hard X-ray spectra from the later simultaneous XMM-Newton and NuSTAR campaign in 2014. The high-energy part of this low-flux SED cannot be accounted for by physically self-consistent accretion disc and corona models without attenuation by absorbing gas, which partially covers a substantial fraction of the line of sight towards the X-ray continuum. At least two layers of absorbing gas are required, of column density log (NH,low/cm-2) = 22.3 ± 0.1 and log (NH,high/cm-2) = 23.2 ± 0.1, with average line-of-sight covering factors of ˜80 per cent (with typical ˜5 per cent variations) and 60 per cent (±10-15 per cent), respectively. During these observations PDS 456 displays significant short-term X-ray spectral variability, on time-scales of ˜100 ks, which can be accounted for by variable covering of the absorbing gas along the line of sight. The partial covering absorber prefers an outflow velocity of v_pc = 0.25^{+0.01}_{-0.05} c at the >99.9 per cent confidence level over the case where vpc = 0. This is consistent with the velocity of the highly ionized outflow responsible for the blueshifted iron K absorption profile. We therefore suggest that the partial covering clouds could be the denser, or clumpy part of an inhomogeneous accretion disc wind. Finally estimates are placed upon the size-scale of the X-ray emission region from the source variability. The radial extent of the X-ray emitter is found to be of the order ˜15-20Rg

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

A map of human microRNA variation uncovers unexpectedly high levels of variability

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are key components of the gene regulatory network in many species. During the past few years, these regulatory elements have been shown to be involved in an increasing number and range of diseases. Consequently, the compilation of a comprehensive map of natural variability in a healthy population seems an obvious requirement for future research on miRNA-related pathologies. Methods Data on 14 populations from the 1000 Genomes Project were analyzed, along with new data extracted from 60 exomes of healthy individuals from a population from southern Spain, sequenced in the context of the Medical Genome Project, to derive an accurate map of miRNA variability. Results Despite the common belief that miRNAs are highly conserved elements, analysis of the sequences of the 1,152 individuals indicated that the observed level of variability is double what was expected. A total of 527 variants were found. Among these, 45 variants affected the recognition region of the corresponding miRNA and were found in 43 different miRNAs, 26 of which are known to be involved in 57 diseases. Different parts of the mature structure of the miRNA were affected to different degrees by variants, which suggests the existence of a selective pressure related to the relative functional impact of the change. Moreover, 41 variants showed a significant deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, which supports the existence of a selective process against some alleles. The average number of variants per individual in miRNAs was 28. Conclusions Despite an expectation that miRNAs would be highly conserved genomic elements, our study reports a level of variability comparable to that observed for coding genes. PMID:22906193

High resolution simulations of a variable HH jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raga, A. C.; de Colle, F.; Kajdič, P.; Esquivel, A.; Cantó, J.

2007-04-01

Context: In many papers, the flows in Herbig-Haro (HH) jets have been modeled as collimated outflows with a time-dependent ejection. In particular, a supersonic variability of the ejection velocity leads to the production of "internal working surfaces" which (for appropriate forms of the time-variability) can produce emitting knots that resemble the chains of knots observed along HH jets. Aims: In this paper, we present axisymmetric simulations of an "internal working surface" in a radiative jet (produced by an ejection velocity variability). We concentrate on a given parameter set (i.e., on a jet with a constante ejection density, and a sinusoidal velocity variability with a 20 yr period and a 40 km s-1 half-amplitude), and carry out a study of the behaviour of the solution for increasing numerical resolutions. Methods: In our simulations, we solve the gasdynamic equations together with a 17-species atomic/ionic network, and we are therefore able to compute emission coefficients for different emission lines. Results: We compute 3 adaptive grid simulations, with 20, 163 and 1310 grid points (at the highest grid resolution) across the initial jet radius. From these simulations we see that successively more complex structures are obtained for increasing numerical resolutions. Such an effect is seen in the stratifications of the flow variables as well as in the predicted emission line intensity maps. Conclusions: .We find that while the detailed structure of an internal working surface depends on resolution, the predicted emission line luminosities (integrated over the volume of the working surface) are surprisingly stable. This is definitely good news for the future computation of predictions from radiative jet models for carrying out comparisons with observations of HH objects.

Robustness of observation-based decadal sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nidheesh, A. G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Izumo, T.; Unnikrishnan, A. S.; Meyssignac, B.; Hamlington, B.; de Boyer Montegut, C.

2017-07-01

We examine the consistency of Indo-Pacific decadal sea level variability in 10 gridded, observation-based sea level products for the 1960-2010 period. Decadal sea level variations are robust in the Pacific, with more than 50% of variance explained by decadal modulation of two flavors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (classical ENSO and Modoki). Amplitude of decadal sea level variability is weaker in the Indian Ocean than in the Pacific. All data sets indicate a transmission of decadal sea level signals from the western Pacific to the northwest Australian coast through the Indonesian throughflow. The southern tropical Indian Ocean sea level variability is associated with decadal modulations of ENSO in reconstructions but not in reanalyses or in situ data set. The Pacific-independent Indian Ocean decadal sea level variability is not robust but tends to be maximum in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean. The inconsistency of Indian Ocean decadal variability across the sea level products calls for caution in making definitive conclusions on decadal sea level variability in this basin.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Equatorial Indian Ocean Observed from Sea Surface Height, Wind, and Temperature Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng

2007-01-01

The forcing of the equatorial Indian Ocean by the highly periodic monsoon wind cycle creates many interesting intraseasonal variabilities. The frequency spectrum of the wind stress observations from the European Remote Sensing Satellite scatterometers reveals peaks at the seasonal cycle and its higher harmonics at 180, 120, 90, and 75 days. The observations of sea surface height (SSH) from the Jason and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon radar altimeters are analyzed to study the ocean's response. The focus of the study is on the intraseasonal periods shorter than the annual period. The semiannual SSH variability is characterized by a basin mode involving Rossby waves and Kelvin waves traveling back and forth in the equatorial Indian Ocean between 10(deg)S and 10(deg)N. However, the interference of these waves with each other masks the appearance of individual Kelvin and Rossby waves, leading to a nodal point (amphidrome) of phase propagation on the equator at the center of the basin. The characteristics of the mode correspond to a resonance of the basin according to theoretical models. The theory also calls for similar modes at 90 and 60 days.

20 Cataclysmic variables to be observed by William Herschel Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waagen, Elizabeth O.

2016-05-01

Roque Ruiz-Carmona (Ph.D. candidate, Institute of Mathematics, Astrophysics and Particle Physics, Radboud University Nijmegen, The Netherlands) has requested AAVSO assistance with his campaign to observe a set of 20 cataclysmic variables (CVs) with the William Herschel Telescope (WHT) at La Palma TONIGHT. This campaign is identical in format to the ones successfully carried out by the AAVSO on his behalf in 2015 (AAVSO Alert Notices 524 and 527). The full details of and instructions for this campaign are included here although the first of the two nights for which data are requested has passed. In order for WHT to observe each of the targets safely and to maximize the science value of the observations obtained, it is essential to know whether they are in outburst or quiescence. To this end, the PI has requested our observers to obtain one image of each target on each of TWO separate nights so he may analyze them to determine the final observing list for WHT. The images must be taken and posted within a certain window. Links to finder charts as well as reporting instructions and other information may be found in the full Alert Notice.

Multivariate dynamic Tobit models with lagged observed dependent variables: An effectiveness analysis of highway safety laws.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Xie, Kun; Zeng, Jin; Li, Xia

2018-04-01

Highway safety laws aim to influence driver behaviors so as to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes, and their outcomes. For one specific highway safety law, it would have different effects on the crashes across severities. Understanding such effects can help policy makers upgrade current laws and hence improve traffic safety. To investigate the effects of highway safety laws on crashes across severities, multivariate models are needed to account for the interdependency issues in crash counts across severities. Based on the characteristics of the dependent variables, multivariate dynamic Tobit (MVDT) models are proposed to analyze crash counts that are aggregated at the state level. Lagged observed dependent variables are incorporated into the MVDT models to account for potential temporal correlation issues in crash data. The state highway safety law related factors are used as the explanatory variables and socio-demographic and traffic factors are used as the control variables. Three models, a MVDT model with lagged observed dependent variables, a MVDT model with unobserved random variables, and a multivariate static Tobit (MVST) model are developed and compared. The results show that among the investigated models, the MVDT models with lagged observed dependent variables have the best goodness-of-fit. The findings indicate that, compared to the MVST, the MVDT models have better explanatory power and prediction accuracy. The MVDT model with lagged observed variables can better handle the stochasticity and dependency in the temporal evolution of the crash counts and the estimated values from the model are closer to the observed values. The results show that more lives could be saved if law enforcement agencies can make a sustained effort to educate the public about the importance of motorcyclists wearing helmets. Motor vehicle crash-related deaths, injuries, and property damages could be reduced if states enact laws for stricter text messaging rules, higher

POST-OUTBURST RADIO OBSERVATIONS OF THE HIGH MAGNETIC FIELD PULSAR PSR J1119-6127

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majid, Walid A.; Pearlman, Aaron B.; Dobreva, Tatyana

We have carried out high-frequency radio observations of the high magnetic field pulsar PSR J1119-6127 following its recent X-ray outburst. While initial observations showed no evidence of significant radio emission, subsequent observations detected pulsed emission across a large frequency band. In this Letter, we report on the initial disappearance of the pulsed emission and its prompt reactivation and dramatic evolution over several months of observation. The periodic pulse profile at S -band (2.3 GHz) after reactivation exhibits a multi-component emission structure, while the simultaneous X -band (8.4 GHz) profile shows a single emission peak. Single pulses were also detected atmore » S -band near the main emission peaks. We present measurements of the spectral index across a wide frequency bandwidth, which captures the underlying changes in the radio emission profile of the neutron star. The high-frequency radio detection, unusual emission profile, and observed variability suggest similarities with magnetars, which may independently link the high-energy outbursts to magnetar-like behavior.« less

Greenland iceberg melt variability from high-resolution satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enderlin, Ellyn M.; Carrigan, Caroline J.; Kochtitzky, William H.; Cuadros, Alexandra; Moon, Twila; Hamilton, Gordon S.

2018-02-01

Iceberg discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet accounts for up to half of the freshwater flux to surrounding fjords and ocean basins, yet the spatial distribution of iceberg meltwater fluxes is poorly understood. One of the primary limitations for mapping iceberg meltwater fluxes, and changes over time, is the dearth of iceberg submarine melt rate estimates. Here we use a remote sensing approach to estimate submarine melt rates during 2011-2016 for 637 icebergs discharged from seven marine-terminating glaciers fringing the Greenland Ice Sheet. We find that spatial variations in iceberg melt rates generally follow expected patterns based on hydrographic observations, including a decrease in melt rate with latitude and an increase in melt rate with iceberg draft. However, we find no longitudinal variations in melt rates within individual fjords. We do not resolve coherent seasonal to interannual patterns in melt rates across all study sites, though we attribute a 4-fold melt rate increase from March to April 2011 near Jakobshavn Isbræ to fjord circulation changes induced by the seasonal onset of iceberg calving. Overall, our results suggest that remotely sensed iceberg melt rates can be used to characterize spatial and temporal variations in oceanic forcing near often inaccessible marine-terminating glaciers.

Towards identification of relevant variables in the observed aerosol optical depth bias between MODIS and AERONET observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malakar, N. K.; Lary, D. J.; Gencaga, D.; Albayrak, A.; Wei, J.

2013-08-01

Measurements made by satellite remote sensing, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and globally distributed Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) are compared. Comparison of the two datasets measurements for aerosol optical depth values show that there are biases between the two data products. In this paper, we present a general framework towards identifying relevant set of variables responsible for the observed bias. We present a general framework to identify the possible factors influencing the bias, which might be associated with the measurement conditions such as the solar and sensor zenith angles, the solar and sensor azimuth, scattering angles, and surface reflectivity at the various measured wavelengths, etc. Specifically, we performed analysis for remote sensing Aqua-Land data set, and used machine learning technique, neural network in this case, to perform multivariate regression between the ground-truth and the training data sets. Finally, we used mutual information between the observed and the predicted values as the measure of similarity to identify the most relevant set of variables. The search is brute force method as we have to consider all possible combinations. The computations involves a huge number crunching exercise, and we implemented it by writing a job-parallel program.

A stepwedge-based method for measuring breast density: observer variability and comparison with human reading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffey, Jenny; Berks, Michael; Hufton, Alan; Chung, Camilla; Verow, Rosanne; Morrison, Joanna; Wilson, Mary; Boggis, Caroline; Morris, Julie; Maxwell, Anthony; Astley, Susan

2010-04-01

Breast density is positively linked to the risk of developing breast cancer. We have developed a semi-automated, stepwedge-based method that has been applied to the mammograms of 1,289 women in the UK breast screening programme to measure breast density by volume and area. 116 images were analysed by three independent operators to assess inter-observer variability; 24 of these were analysed on 10 separate occasions by the same operator to determine intra-observer variability. 168 separate images were analysed using the stepwedge method and by two radiologists who independently estimated percentage breast density by area. There was little intra-observer variability in the stepwedge method (average coefficients of variation 3.49% - 5.73%). There were significant differences in the volumes of glandular tissue obtained by the three operators. This was attributed to variations in the operators' definition of the breast edge. For fatty and dense breasts, there was good correlation between breast density assessed by the stepwedge method and the radiologists. This was also observed between radiologists, despite significant inter-observer variation. Based on analysis of thresholds used in the stepwedge method, radiologists' definition of a dense pixel is one in which the percentage of glandular tissue is between 10 and 20% of the total thickness of tissue.

Alternating high and low climate variability: The context of natural selection and speciation in Plio-Pleistocene hominin evolution.

PubMed

Potts, Richard; Faith, J Tyler

2015-10-01

Interaction of orbital insolation cycles defines a predictive model of alternating phases of high- and low-climate variability for tropical East Africa over the past 5 million years. This model, which is described in terms of climate variability stages, implies repeated increases in landscape/resource instability and intervening periods of stability in East Africa. It predicts eight prolonged (>192 kyr) eras of intensified habitat instability (high variability stages) in which hominin evolutionary innovations are likely to have occurred, potentially by variability selection. The prediction that repeated shifts toward high climate variability affected paleoenvironments and evolution is tested in three ways. In the first test, deep-sea records of northeast African terrigenous dust flux (Sites 721/722) and eastern Mediterranean sapropels (Site 967A) show increased and decreased variability in concert with predicted shifts in climate variability. These regional measurements of climate dynamics are complemented by stratigraphic observations in five basins with lengthy stratigraphic and paleoenvironmental records: the mid-Pleistocene Olorgesailie Basin, the Plio-Pleistocene Turkana and Olduvai Basins, and the Pliocene Tugen Hills sequence and Hadar Basin--all of which show that highly variable landscapes inhabited by hominin populations were indeed concentrated in predicted stages of prolonged high climate variability. Second, stringent null-model tests demonstrate a significant association of currently known first and last appearance datums (FADs and LADs) of the major hominin lineages, suites of technological behaviors, and dispersal events with the predicted intervals of prolonged high climate variability. Palynological study in the Nihewan Basin, China, provides a third test, which shows the occupation of highly diverse habitats in eastern Asia, consistent with the predicted increase in adaptability in dispersing Oldowan hominins. Integration of fossil, archeological

Variability of Attention Processes in ADHD: Observations from the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Alderson, R. Matt; Timko, Thomas M., Jr.; DuPaul, George J.

2009-01-01

Objective: Classroom- and laboratory-based efforts to study the attentional problems of children with ADHD are incongruent in elucidating attentional deficits; however, none have explored within- or between-minute variability in the classroom attentional processing in children with ADHD. Method: High and low attention groups of ADHD children…

Potential Line Structure Variability in DIB Features Observed in Pathfinder tres Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, Charles; Milisavljevic, Dan; Crabtree, Kyle N.; Johansen, Sommer Lynn

2017-06-01

The Diffuse Interstellar Bands (DIBs) are hundreds of spectral lines observed in sightlines towards many stars in the optical and near-infrared. Although most of these transitions remain unassigned, four of them have recently been assigned to C_{60}^{+} and C_{70}^{+}. In earlier observations of the visible spectrum of the extragalactic supernova SN 2012ap, we observed changes in the equivalent widths of DIBs on the timescale of its light curve, which indicated that some DIB carriers might exist closer to massive stars then previously believed. Motivated by these findings, we undertook a pathfinder survey of 17 massive stars with the Tillinghast Reflector Echelle Spectrograph at Fred L. Whipple Observatory in search of temporal variability in DIBs. In 3 of the 17 stars, we found possible evidence for variation in line substructure of DIBs λ5797 and λ6614. In this talk, we will discuss our efforts to model λ5797 toward MT-59 using contour simulations based on previously published spectral models from higher resolution observations. Although the SNR of this spectrum was only 5-15, our preliminary results suggest that the variations in molecular spectra over time might arise from changes in carrier temperature. These early results demonstrate the need for higher SNR spectra taken at multiple epochs to further explore potential temporal variability. If successful, time-variation could provide additional evidence to assist in identifying DIB carriers.

Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota,more » Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially

Observations of the variability of coronal bright points by the Soft X-ray Telescope on Yohkoh

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strong, Keith T.; Harvey, Karen; Hirayama, Tadashi; Nitta, Nariaki; Shimizu, Toshifumi; Tsuneta, Saku

1992-01-01

We present the initial results of a study of X-ray bright points (XBPs) made with data from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope. High temporal and spatial resolution observations of several XBPs illustrate their intensity variability over a wide variety of time scales from a few minutes to hours, as well as rapid changes in their morphology. Several XBPs produced flares during their lifetime. These XBP flares often involve magnetic loops, which are considerably larger than the XBP itself, and which brighten along their lengths at speeds of up to 1100 km/s.

Optimization of the transmission of observable expectation values and observable statistics in continuous-variable teleportation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Albano Farias, L.; Stephany, J.

2010-12-15

We analyze the statistics of observables in continuous-variable (CV) quantum teleportation in the formalism of the characteristic function. We derive expressions for average values of output-state observables, in particular, cumulants which are additive in terms of the input state and the resource of teleportation. Working with a general class of teleportation resources, the squeezed-bell-like states, which may be optimized in a free parameter for better teleportation performance, we discuss the relation between resources optimal for fidelity and those optimal for different observable averages. We obtain the values of the free parameter of the squeezed-bell-like states which optimize the central momentamore » and cumulants up to fourth order. For the cumulants the distortion between in and out states due to teleportation depends only on the resource. We obtain optimal parameters {Delta}{sub (2)}{sup opt} and {Delta}{sub (4)}{sup opt} for the second- and fourth-order cumulants, which do not depend on the squeezing of the resource. The second-order central momenta, which are equal to the second-order cumulants, and the photon number average are also optimized by the resource with {Delta}{sub (2)}{sup opt}. We show that the optimal fidelity resource, which has been found previously to depend on the characteristics of input, approaches for high squeezing to the resource that optimizes the second-order momenta. A similar behavior is obtained for the resource that optimizes the photon statistics, which is treated here using the sum of the squared differences in photon probabilities of input versus output states as the distortion measure. This is interpreted naturally to mean that the distortions associated with second-order momenta dominate the behavior of the output state for large squeezing of the resource. Optimal fidelity resources and optimal photon statistics resources are compared, and it is shown that for mixtures of Fock states both resources are equivalent.« less

Seychelles Dome variability in a high resolution ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyadjro, E. S.; Jensen, T.; Richman, J. G.; Shriver, J. F.

2016-02-01

The Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 5ºS-10ºS, 50ºE-80ºE) in the tropical Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) has been recognized as a region of prominence with regards to climate variability in the Indian Ocean. Convective activities in this region have regional consequences as it affect socio-economic livelihood of the people especially in the countries along the Indian Ocean rim. The SCTR is characterized by a quasi-permanent upwelling that is often associated with thermocline shoaling. This upwelling affects sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We present results on the variability and dynamics of the SCTR as simulated by the 1/12º high resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). It is observed that locally, wind stress affects SST via Ekman pumping of cooler subsurface waters, mixing and anomalous zonal advection. Remotely, wind stress curl in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean generates westward-propagating Rossby waves that impacts the depth of the thermocline which in turn impacts SST variability in the SCTR region. The variability of the contributions of these processes, especially with regard to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are further examined. In a typical positive IOD (PIOD) year, the net vertical velocity in the SCTR is negative year-round as easterlies along the region are intensified leading to a strong positive curl. This vertical velocity is caused mainly by anomalous local Ekman downwelling (with peak during September-November), a direct opposite to the climatology scenario when local Ekman pumping is positive (upwelling favorable) year-round. The anomalous remote contribution to the vertical velocity changes is minimal especially during the developing and peak stages of PIOD events. In a typical negative IOD (NIOD) year, anomalous vertical velocity is positive almost year-round with peaks in May and October. The remote contribution is positive, in contrast to the climatology and most of the PIOD years.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

An Observational Study of Cataclysmic Variable Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araujo-Betancor, Sofia

2004-03-01

In this thesis I present an observational study of the evolution of Cataclysmic Variables (CVs). Disrupted magnetic braking has been the standard paradigm of CV evolution for the past twenty years. Unfortunately, some of its predictions are in strong disagreement with the observations. In recent years, a number of additions/alternatives to the standard model have been proposed. Yet, none have been able to explain all of the features observed in the currently known CV population. The work presented in this thesis is based mainly on a large-scale search for CVs. The primary aim of this project is to resolve the disagreement between theory and observations by eliminating the observational biases of the present CV sample. Here, I use two complementary approaches to search for CVs: (1) from the spectroscopic appearance in the Hamburg Quasar Survey (HQS), and (2) by using a combination of ROSAT and 2MASS archival data. So far, we have discovered 52 new CVs in the HQS and 11 new CVs (the majority of them magnetic) and 1 pre-CV in the ROSAT/2MASS. Follow-up observations of two newly discovered HQS CVs, 1RXS J062518.2+733433 and HS 2331+3905, resulted in the classification of the first as an Intermediate Polar, with P_orb = 283.0 min and P_spin = 19.8 min, and the second as a short orbital period system, P_orb = 81.0 min, harbouring a white dwarf pulsator. In addition, we found that the dominant ~3.5 h radial velocity variation of HS 2331+3905 does not correspond to the orbital period of the system, contrary to all other CVs. Despite its novel selection criterion, the HQS does not provide many short-period CVs -- even though tests with the known CVs included in the survey have shown that it is very sensitive to those objects. The biggest surprise in the new HQS sample is the discovery of many new SW Sex stars. The clustering of SW Sex stars in the 3-4 h period range is probably an important feature in the evolution of CVs that we currently do not understand at all. To

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-02-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters.

Improved spectral comparisons of paleoclimate models and observations via proxy system modeling: Implications for multi-decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2017-10-01

The spectral characteristics of paleoclimate observations spanning the last millennium suggest the presence of significant low-frequency (multi-decadal to centennial scale) variability in the climate system. Since this low-frequency climate variability is critical for climate predictions on societally-relevant scales, it is essential to establish whether General Circulation models (GCMs) are able to simulate it faithfully. Recent studies find large discrepancies between models and paleoclimate data at low frequencies, prompting concerns surrounding the ability of GCMs to predict long-term, high-magnitude variability under greenhouse forcing (Laepple and Huybers, 2014a, 2014b). However, efforts to ground climate model simulations directly in paleoclimate observations are impeded by fundamental differences between models and the proxy data: proxy systems often record a multivariate and/or nonlinear response to climate, precluding a direct comparison to GCM output. In this paper we bridge this gap via a forward proxy modeling approach, coupled to an isotope-enabled GCM. This allows us to disentangle the various contributions to signals embedded in ice cores, speleothem calcite, coral aragonite, tree-ring width, and tree-ring cellulose. The paper addresses the following questions: (1) do forward-modeled ;pseudoproxies; exhibit variability comparable to proxy data? (2) if not, which processes alter the shape of the spectrum of simulated climate variability, and are these processes broadly distinguishable from climate? We apply our method to representative case studies, and broaden these insights with an analysis of the PAGES2k database (PAGES2K Consortium, 2013). We find that current proxy system models (PSMs) can help resolve model-data discrepancies on interannual to decadal timescales, but cannot account for the mismatch in variance on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. We conclude that, specific to this set of PSMs and isotope-enabled model, the paleoclimate

Psychological variables potentially implicated in opioid-related mortality as observed in clinical practice.

PubMed

Passik, Steven D; Lowery, Amy

2011-06-01

Opioid-related deaths in the United States have become a public health problem, with accidental and unintended overdoses being especially troubling. Screening for psychological risk factors is an important first step in safeguarding against nonadherence practices and identifying patients who may be vulnerable to the risks associated with opioid therapy. Validated screening instruments can aid in this attempt as a complementary tool to clinicians' assessments. A structured screening is imperative as part of an assessment, as clinician judgment is not the most reliable method of identifying nonadherence. As a complement to formal screening, we present for discussion and possible future study certain psychological variables observed during years of clinical practice that may be linked to medication nonadherence and accidental overdose. These variables include catastrophizing, fear, impulsivity, attention deficit disorders, existential distress, and certain personality disorders. In our experience, chronic pain patients with dual diagnoses may become "chemical copers" as a way of coping with their negative emotion. For these patients, times of stress could lead to accidental overdose. Behavioral, cognitive-behavioral (acceptance and commitment, dialectical behavior), existential (meaning-centered, dignity), and psychotropic therapies have been effective in treating these high-risk comorbidities, while managing expectations of pain relief appears key to preventing accidental overdose. Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Psychological Variables Potentially Implicated in Opioid-Related Mortality as Observed in Clinical Practice

PubMed Central

Passik, Steven D.; Lowery, Amy

2014-01-01

Opioid-related deaths in the United States have become a public health problem, with accidental and unintended overdoses being especially troubling. Screening for psychological risk factors is an important first step in safeguarding against nonadherence practices and identifying patients who may be vulnerable to the risks associated with opioid therapy. Validated screening instruments can aid in this attempt as a complementary tool to clinicians’ assessments. A structured screening is imperative as part of an assessment, as clinician judgment is not the most reliable method of identifying nonadherence. As a complement to formal screening, we present for discussion and possible future study certain psychological variables observed during years of clinical practice that may be linked to medication nonadherence and accidental overdose. These variables include catastrophizing, fear, impulsivity, attention deficit disorders, existential distress, and certain personality disorders. In our experience, chronic pain patients with dual diagnoses may become “chemical copers” as a way of coping with their negative emotion. For these patients, times of stress could lead to accidental overdose. Behavioral, cognitive-behavioral (acceptance and commitment, dialectical behavior), existential (meaning-centered, dignity), and psychotropic therapies have been effective in treating these high-risk comorbidities, while managing expectations of pain relief appears key to preventing accidental overdose. PMID:21668755

X-ray and optical observations of 2 new cataclysmic variables

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, K. P.; Szkody, P.; Barrett, P.; Schlegel, E.; White, N. E.; Silber, A.; Fierce, E.; Hoard, D.; Hakala, P. J.; Piirola, V.;

An Hα-selected sample of cataclysmic variables - I. Observations of newly discovered systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretorius, Magaretha L.; Knigge, Christian

2008-04-01

Strong selection effects are present in observational samples of cataclysmic variables (CVs), complicating comparisons to theoretical predictions. The selection criteria used to define most CV samples discriminate heavily against the discovery of short-period, intrinsically faint systems. The situation can be improved by selecting CVs for the presence of emission lines. For this reason, we have constructed a homogeneous sample of CVs selected on the basis of Hα emission. We present discovery observations of the 14 CVs and two additional CV candidates found in this search. The orbital periods of 11 of the new CVs were measured; all are above 3 h. There are two eclipsing systems in the sample, and one in which we observed a quasi-periodic modulation on a ~1000s time-scale. We also detect the secondary star in the spectrum of one system, and measure its spectral type. Several of the new CVs have the spectroscopic appearance of nova-like variables, and a few display what may be SW Sex star behaviour. In a companion paper, we discuss the implications of this new sample for CV evolution.

Observed and Aogcm Simulated Relationships Between us Wind Speeds and Large Scale Modes of Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.; Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.

2013-12-01

Previous research has indicated that large-scale modes of climate variability, such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), influence the inter-annual and intra-annual variability of near-surface and upper-level wind speeds over the United States. For example, we have shown that rawinsonde derived wind speeds indicate that 90th percentile of wind speeds at 700 hPa over the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern USA are significantly higher under the negative phase of the PNA, and the Central Plains experiences higher wind speeds at 850 hPa under positive phase Southern Oscillation index while the Northeast exhibits higher wind speeds at 850 hPa under positive phase NAO. Here, we extend this research by further investigating these relationships using both reanalysis products and output from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) developed for the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The research presented has two specific goals. First, we evaluate the AOGCM simulations in terms of their ability to represent the temporal and spatial representations of ENSO, the AO, and the PNA pattern relative to historical observations. The diagnostics used include calculation of the power spectra (and thus representation of the fundamental frequencies of variability) and Taylor diagrams (for comparative assessment of the spatial patterns and their intensities). Our initial results indicate that most AOGCMs produce modes that are qualitatively similar to those observed, but that differ slightly in terms of the spatial pattern, intensity of specific centers of action, and variance explained. Figure 1 illustrates an example of the analysis of the frequencies of variability of two climate modes for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (NNR) and a single AOGCM (BCC CSM1). The results show a high degree of similarity in the power spectra but for this AOGCM the variance of the PNA

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Time-Variable Gravity from Space: Quarter Century of Observations, Mysteries, and Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.

2003-01-01

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Via the space geodetic technique of satellite-laser ranging in the last quarter century, the Earth's dynamic oblateness J2 (the lowest-degree harmonic component of the gravity field) has been observed to undergo a slight decrease -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which has continued to date. The secular decrease in J2 has long been attributed primarily to the post-glacial rebound in the mantle; the present increase signifies an even larger change in global mass distribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound, at least over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the ocean water distribution, especially in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this J2 change. New techniques based on satellite-to-satellite tracking will yield greatly improved observations for time-variable gravity, with much higher precision and spatial resolution (i.e., much higher harmonic degrees). The most important example is the GRACE mission launched in March 2002, following the success of the CHAMP mission. In addition, although less precise than GRACE, the GPS/Meteorology constellation mission COSMIC, with 6 mini-satellites to be launched in late 2005, is expected to provide continued and complementary time-variable gravity observations. Such observations are becoming a new and powerful tool for remote sensing of geophysical fluid processes that involve larger-scale mass transports.

High-Precision Studies of Compact Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloemen, Steven

2014-10-01

This book, which is a reworked and updated version of Steven Bloemen's original PhD thesis, reports on several high-precision studies of compact variable stars. Its strength lies in the large variety of observational, theoretical and instrumentation techniques that are presented and used and paves the way towards new and detailed asteroseismic applications of single and binary subdwarf stars. Close binary stars are studied using high cadence spectroscopic datasets collected with state of the art electron multiplying CCDs and analysed using Doppler tomography visualization techniques. The work touches upon instrumentation, presenting the calibration of a new fast, multi-colour camera installed at the Mercator Telescope on La Palma. The thesis also includes theoretical work on the computation of the temperature range in which stellar oscillations can be driven in subdwarf B-stars. Finally, the highlight of the thesis is the measurement of velocities of stars using only photometric data from NASA's Kepler satellite. Doppler beaming causes stars to appear slightly brighter when they move towards us in their orbits, and this subtle effect can be seen in Kepler's brightness measurements. The thesis presents the first validation of such velocity measurements using independent spectroscopic measurements. Since the detection and validation of this Doppler beaming effect, it has been used in tens of studies to detect and characterize binary star systems, which are key calibrators in stellar astronomy.

Examining Rotational Variability in the Upper Tropospheres and Lower Stratospheres of Uranus and Neptune from Herschel PACS OT1 Observations: Implications for the Stability of Temperature and Compositional Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, G.; Feuchtgruber, H.; Fletcher, L.; Lellouch, E.; Moreno, R.; Billebaud, F.; Cavalie, T.; Decin, L.; Dobreijecvic, M.; Encrenaz, T.; Hartogh, P.; Jarchow, C.; Lara, L. M.; Liu, J.

2012-04-01

The power of high-resolution submillimeter spectroscopy of Uranus and Neptune was put to use to survey the rotational variability of stratospheric and tropospheric constituents of their atmospheres. These observations were motivated by the surprising discovery of as much as 12% rotational variability of emission from stratospheric constituents in the atmosphere of Uranus by the Spitzer Infrared Spectrometer and the detection of spatial variability in thermal images of Neptune's stratospheric emission (Orton et al. 2007, Astron. & Astrophys 473, L3). Our observing program consisted of three separate sequences of observations to look at the strongest lines of H2O in the high-resolution PACS spectra of both planets, whose upwelling radiance emerges from the same vertical region as the Spitzer IRS observations of Uranus and ground-based images of Neptune, and the strongest line of CH4 in the PACS spectrum of Neptune. We omitted measurements of CH4 lines in Uranus, which are almost non-detectable. We added the strongest HD line in Uranus to measure variability of tropospheric temperatures that could modulate stratospheric CH4 abundances through local cold-trapping and the strongest two HD lines in Neptune (Lellouch et al. 2010, Astron. & Astrophys. 518, L152) that determine both the tropopause temperature to limit local cold-trapping efficacy and the lower stratospheric temperature, to help differentiate between longitudinal variability of stratospheric H2O and CH4 abundances vs. temperatures. These were repeated over the 17-hour interval that is common to the equatorial rotation periods of both Uranus and Neptune. Although these lines had already been observed in Uranus and Neptune by PACS, no repeat measurements had ever been made to determine longitudinal variability. The observations were consistent with previous measurements, but no significant rotational variability was detected. It is possible that the absence of rotational variability in the HD and CH4 lines is

Variable optical filters for earth-observation imaging minispectrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piegari, A.; Bulir, J.; Krasilnikova, A.; Dami, M.; Harnisch, B.

2017-11-01

Small-dimension, low-mass spectrometers are useful for both Earth observation and planetary missions. A very compact multi-spectral mini-spectrometer that contains no moving parts, can be constructed combining a graded-thickness filter, having a spatially variable narrow-band transmission, to a CCD array detector. The peak wavelength of the transmission filter is moving along one direction of the filter surface, such that each line of a two-dimensional array detector, equipped with this filter, will detect radiation in a different pass band. The spectrum of interest for image spectrometry of the Earth surface is very wide, 400-1000nm. This requirement along with the need of a very small dimension, makes this filter very difficult to manufacture. Preliminary results on metal-dielectric wedge filters, with a gradient of the transmission peak wavelength equal to 60nm/mm, are reported.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Variability of Radiosonde-Observed Precipitable Water in the Baltic Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakobson, Erko; Ohvril, H.; Okulov, O.

The total mass of columnar water vapor (precipitable water, W) is an important parameter of atmospheric thermodynamic and radiative models. In this work radiosonde observations from 17 aerological stations in the Baltic region during 14 years, 1989?2002, were used to examine the variability of precipitable water. A table of monthly and annual means of W for the stations is given. Seasonal and annual means of W are expressed as linear functions of geographical latitude. Linear formulas are also derived for parameterization of precipitable water as function of surface water vapor pressure at each station.

Genetic variability in krill.

PubMed Central

Valentine, J W; Ayala, F J

1976-01-01

We have estimated genetic variability by gel electrophoresis in three species of krill, genus Euphausia (Arthropoda: Crustacea). Genetic variability is low where trophic resources are most seasonal, and high where trophic resources are most stable. Simlar trends have been found in benthic marine invertebrates. The observed trends of genetic variability do not correlate with trends in the stability of physical environment parameters. Images PMID:1061166

High-resolution grids of hourly meteorological variables for Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krähenmann, S.; Walter, A.; Brienen, S.; Imbery, F.; Matzarakis, A.

2018-02-01

We present a 1-km2 gridded German dataset of hourly surface climate variables covering the period 1995 to 2012. The dataset comprises 12 variables including temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, global and direct shortwave radiation, down- and up-welling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, relative humidity and vapour pressure. This dataset was constructed statistically from station data, satellite observations and model data. It is outstanding in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and in the number of climate variables. For each variable, we employed the most suitable gridding method and combined the best of several information sources, including station records, satellite-derived data and data from a regional climate model. A module to estimate urban heat island intensity was integrated for air and dew point temperature. Owing to the low density of available synop stations, the gridded dataset does not capture all variations that may occur at a resolution of 1 km2. This applies to areas of complex terrain (all the variables), and in particular to wind speed and the radiation parameters. To achieve maximum precision, we used all observational information when it was available. This, however, leads to inhomogeneities in station network density and affects the long-term consistency of the dataset. A first climate analysis for Germany was conducted. The Rhine River Valley, for example, exhibited more than 100 summer days in 2003, whereas in 1996, the number was low everywhere in Germany. The dataset is useful for applications in various climate-related studies, hazard management and for solar or wind energy applications and it is available via doi: 10.5676/DWD_CDC/TRY_Basis_v001.

Transport variability of the Brazil Current from observations and a data assimilation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmid, Claudia; Majumder, Sudip

2018-06-01

The Brazil Current transports from observations and the Hybrid Coordinate Model (HYCOM) model are analyzed to improve our understanding of the current's structure and variability. A time series of the observed transport is derived from a three-dimensional field of the velocity in the South Atlantic covering the years 1993 to 2015 (hereinafter called Argo & SSH). The mean transports of the Brazil Current increases from 3.8 ± 2.2 Sv (1 Sv is 106 m3 s-1) at 25° S to 13.9 ± 2.6 Sv at 32° S, which corresponds to a mean slope of 1.4 ± 0.4 Sv per degree. Transport estimates derived from HYCOM fields are somewhat higher (5.2 ± 2.7 and 18.7 ± 7.1 Sv at 25 and 32° S, respectively) than those from Argo & SSH, but these differences are small when compared with the standard deviations. Overall, the observed latitude dependence of the transport of the Brazil Current is in agreement with the wind-driven circulation in the super gyre of the subtropical South Atlantic. A mean annual cycle with highest (lowest) transports in austral summer (winter) is found to exist at selected latitudes (24, 35, and 38° S). The significance of this signal shrinks with increasing latitude (both in Argo & SSH and HYCOM), mainly due to mesoscale and interannual variability. Both Argo & SSH, as well as HYCOM, reveal interannual variability at 24 and 35° S that results in relatively large power at periods of 2 years or more in wavelet spectra. It is found that the interannual variability at 24° S is correlated with the South Atlantic Subtropical Dipole Mode (SASD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the Niño 3.4 index. Similarly, correlations between SAM and the Brazil Current transport are also found at 35° S. Further investigation of the variability reveals that the first and second mode of a coupled empirical orthogonal function of the meridional transport and the sea level pressure explain 36 and 15 % of the covariance, respectively. Overall, the results indicate that

Observations of the sun, an ultraviolet variable star

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heath, D. F.

1972-01-01

The uncertainty as to whether or not the sun is a variable star in that region of the ultraviolet which is absorbed in the mesosphere and stratosphere led to an experiment with acronym MUSE, Monitor of Ultraviolet Solar Energy. The experiment was first flown on an Aerobee rocket in August 1966 and subsequently on Nimbus 3 and 4 in April 1969 and April 1970 respectively. The basic philosophy behind the design of the experiment was to provide an instrument which would not require a solar pointing mechanism and at the same time would be capable of high radiometric accuracy for long periods in space.

Short time-scale optical variability properties of the largest AGN sample observed with Kepler/K2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranzana, E.; Körding, E.; Uttley, P.; Scaringi, S.; Bloemen, S.

2018-05-01

We present the first short time-scale (˜hours to days) optical variability study of a large sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) observed with the Kepler/K2 mission. The sample contains 252 AGN observed over four campaigns with ˜30 min cadence selected from the Million Quasar Catalogue with R magnitude <19. We performed time series analysis to determine their variability properties by means of the power spectral densities (PSDs) and applied Monte Carlo techniques to find the best model parameters that fit the observed power spectra. A power-law model is sufficient to describe all the PSDs of our sample. A variety of power-law slopes were found indicating that there is not a universal slope for all AGNs. We find that the rest-frame amplitude variability in the frequency range of 6 × 10-6-10-4 Hz varies from 1to10 per cent with an average of 1.7 per cent. We explore correlations between the variability amplitude and key parameters of the AGN, finding a significant correlation of rest-frame short-term variability amplitude with redshift. We attribute this effect to the known `bluer when brighter' variability of quasars combined with the fixed bandpass of Kepler data. This study also enables us to distinguish between Seyferts and blazars and confirm AGN candidates. For our study, we have compared results obtained from light curves extracted using different aperture sizes and with and without detrending. We find that limited detrending of the optimal photometric precision light curve is the best approach, although some systematic effects still remain present.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability and Relative Erosion Rates on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, S.; Moon, S.; Mitchell, J.; Lora, J. M.

2016-12-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by extensive observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability and resulting relative erosion rates within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

Variable Stars Observed in the Galactic Disk by AST3-1 from Dome A, Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lingzhi; Ma, Bin; Hu, Yi

AST3-1 is the second-generation wide-field optical photometric telescope dedicated to time-domain astronomy at Dome A, Antarctica. Here, we present the results of an i -band images survey from AST3-1 toward one Galactic disk field. Based on time-series photometry of 92,583 stars, 560 variable stars were detected with i magnitude ≤16.5 mag during eight days of observations; 339 of these are previously unknown variables. We tentatively classify the 560 variables as 285 eclipsing binaries (EW, EB, and EA), 27 pulsating variable stars ( δ Scuti, γ Doradus, δ Cephei variable, and RR Lyrae stars), and 248 other types of variables (unclassifiedmore » periodic, multiperiodic, and aperiodic variable stars). Of the eclipsing binaries, 34 show O’Connell effects. One of the aperiodic variables shows a plateau light curve and another variable shows a secondary maximum after peak brightness. We also detected a complex binary system with an RS CVn-like light-curve morphology; this object is being followed-up spectroscopically using the Gemini South telescope.« less

High resolution solar observations from first principles to applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdoni, Angelo P.

2009-10-01

polarization optics for the Visible-light Imaging Magnetograph (VIM) is presented. VIM uses a set of two Liquid Crystal Variable Retarders (LCVRs) as the main components of its Stokes analyzer. Calibration of these components is a crucial step in providing reliable polarimetric measurements of the Sun using VIM. On 2007 July 15, using the Dunn Solar Telescope (DST) at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak (NSO/SP), New Mexico, the first polarimetric measurements using VIM were made. As a final step, illustrating an application of high-resolution solar observations, the results of a two-dimensional time-series acquired on 2006 June 11, using the DST at NSOP is presented. The data is used in a study of upflow events that are observed to occur in the Halpha 656.3 nm and Na D2 589.0 nm chromospheric absorption lines.

The variability of SE2 tide extracted from TIMED/SABER observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Wan, W.; Ren, Z.

2017-12-01

Based on the temperature observations of the TIMED/SABER in mesosphere/lower thermosphere region (70-110 km altitudes) and at the low latitude and midlatitude (45°S-45°N) from 2002 to 2012, the variability of the nonmigrating tide SE2 with 1 day resolution is analyzed. It is found that the climatological features (large-scale variability) of the semidiurnal nonmigrating tide with zonal wave number 2 (SE2) tide are similar with the results from the previous research works. The SE2 tide manifests mainly at the low-mid latitudes around ±30°. The northern hemisphere tidal amplitudes below 110 km are larger than the southern hemisphere tide. SE2 peaks below 110 km mainly present between 100 and 110 km altitude. The tidal amplitudes below 110 km occur a north-south asymmetry about the equator in the annual variation: in the southern hemisphere, SE2 occurs with an obvious annual variation with a maximum of tidal amplitudes in December, while in the northern one, the semiannual variations with maximum at the equinoxes. Herein, owing to the high-resolution tidal data, we could research the short-term (day-to-day) variations of SE2. We found that the day-to-day variations manifest mainly at between 100 and 110 km altitudes; it increases gradually with latitudes, and it is stronger at the low-mid latitudes; it is relatively slightly stronger around solstices than equinoxes; and it does not present a remarkably interannual variation. The SE2 day-to-day variations may be composed by the absolute amplitudes' variance and the impact of the wave phases, and the latter ones are more important.

Environmental variability and indicators: a few observations

Treesearch

William F. Laudenslayer

1991-01-01

Abstract The environment of the earth is exceedingly complex and variable. Indicator species are used to reduce thaf complexity and variability to a level that can be more emily understood. In recent years, use of indicators has increased dramatically. For the Forest Service, as an example, regulations that interpret the National Forest Management Act require the use...

X-ray flaring in PDS 456 observed in a high-flux state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzeu, G. A.; Reeves, J. N.; Nardini, E.; Braito, V.; Turner, T. J.; Costa, M. T.

2017-03-01

We present an analysis of a 190 ks (net exposure) Suzaku observation, carried out in 2007, of the nearby (z = 0.184) luminous (Lbol ˜ 1047 erg s-1) quasar PDS 456. In this observation, the intrinsically steep bare continuum is revealed compared to subsequent observations, carried out in 2011 and 2013, where the source is fainter, harder and more absorbed. We detected two pairs of prominent hard and soft flares, restricted to the first and second halves of the observation, respectively. The flares occur on time-scales of the order of ˜50 ks, which is equivalent to a light-crossing distance of ˜10 Rg in PDS 456. From the spectral variability observed during the flares, we find that the continuum changes appear to be dominated by two components: (I) a variable soft component (<2 keV), which may be related to the Comptonized tail of the disc emission, and (II) a variable hard power-law component (>2 keV). The photon index of the latter power-law component appears to respond to changes in the soft band flux, increasing during the soft X-ray flares. Here, the softening of the spectra, observed during the flares, may be due to Compton cooling of the disc corona induced by the increased soft X-ray photon seed flux. In contrast, we rule out partial covering absorption as the physical mechanism behind the observed short time-scale spectral variability, as the time-scales are likely too short to be accounted for by absorption variability.

Inter-observer variability in the classification of ovarian cancer cell type using microscopy: a pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrielides, Marios A.; Ronnett, Brigitte M.; Vang, Russell; Seidman, Jeffrey D.

2015-03-01

Studies have shown that different cell types of ovarian carcinoma have different molecular profiles, exhibit different behavior, and that patients could benefit from typespecific treatment. Different cell types display different histopathology features, and different criteria are used for each cell type classification. Inter-observer variability for the task of classifying ovarian cancer cell types is an under-examined area of research. This study served as a pilot study to quantify observer variability related to the classification of ovarian cancer cell types and to extract valuable data for designing a validation study of digital pathology (DP) for this task. Three observers with expertise in gynecologic pathology reviewed 114 cases of ovarian cancer with optical microscopy, with specific guidelines for classifications into distinct cell types. For 93 cases all 3 pathologists agreed on the same cell type, for 18 cases 2 out of 3 agreed, and for 3 cases there was no agreement. Across cell types with a minimum sample size of 10 cases, agreement between all three observers was {91.1%, 80.0%, 90.0%, 78.6%, 100.0%, 61.5%} for the high grade serous carcinoma, low grade serous carcinoma, endometrioid, mucinous, clear cell, and carcinosarcoma cell types respectively. These results indicate that unanimous agreement varied over a fairly wide range. However, additional research is needed to determine the importance of these differences in comparison studies. These results will be used to aid in the design and sizing of such a study comparing optical and digital pathology. In addition, the results will help in understanding the potential role computer-aided diagnosis has in helping to improve the agreement of pathologists for this task.

High beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in atrial fibrillation compared to sinus rhythm.

PubMed

Olbers, Joakim; Gille, Adam; Ljungman, Petter; Rosenqvist, Mårten; Östergren, Jan; Witt, Nils

2018-02-07

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, not entirely explained by thromboembolism. The underlying mechanisms for this association are largely unknown. Similarly, high blood pressure (BP) increases the risk for cardiovascular events. Despite this the interplay between AF and BP is insufficiently studied. The purpose of this study was to examine and quantify the beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in patients with AF in comparison to a control group of patients with sinus rhythm. We studied 33 patients - 21 in atrial fibrillation and 12 in sinus rhythm - undergoing routine coronary angiography. Invasive blood pressure was recorded at three locations: radial artery, brachial artery and ascending aorta. Blood pressure variability, defined as average beat-to-beat blood pressure difference, was calculated for systolic and diastolic blood pressure at each site. We observed a significant difference (p < .001) in systolic and diastolic blood pressure variability between the atrial fibrillation and sinus rhythm groups at all locations. Systolic blood pressure variability roughly doubled in the atrial fibrillation group compared to the sinus rhythm group (4.9 and 2.4 mmHg respectively). Diastolic beat-to-beat blood pressure variability was approximately 6 times as high in the atrial fibrillation group compared to the sinus rhythm group (7.5 and 1.2 mmHg respectively). No significant difference in blood pressure variability was seen between measurement locations. Beat-to-beat blood pressure variability in patients with atrial fibrillation was substantially higher than in patients with sinus rhythm. Hemodynamic effects of this beat-to-beat variation in blood pressure may negatively affect vascular structure and function, which may contribute to the increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality seen in patients with atrial fibrillation.

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey

2017-06-01

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.