Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.
2012-04-01
The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.
Trends in Streamflow Characteristics at Long-Term Gaging Stations, Hawaii
Oki, Delwyn S.
2004-01-01
The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. Proper management of the surface-water resources of the State requires an understanding of the long- and short-term variability in streamflow characteristics that may occur. The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a network of stream-gaging stations in Hawaii, including a number of stations with long-term streamflow records that can be used to evaluate long-term trends and short-term variability in flow characteristics. The overall objective of this study is to obtain a better understanding of long-term trends and variations in streamflow on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai, where long-term stream-gaging stations exist. This study includes (1) an analysis of long-term trends in flows (both total flow and estimated base flow) at 16 stream-gaging stations, (2) a description of patterns in trends within the State, and (3) discussion of possible regional factors (including rainfall) that are related to the observed trends and variations. Results of this study indicate the following: 1. From 1913 to 2002 base flows generally decreased in streams for which data are available, and this trend is consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the State during that period. 2. Monthly mean base flows generally were above the long-term average from 1913 to the early 1940s and below average after the early 1940s to 2002, and this pattern is consistent with the detected downward trends in base flows from 1913 to 2002. 3. Long-term downward trends in base flows of streams may indicate a reduction in ground-water discharge to streams caused by a long-term decrease in ground-water storage and recharge. 4. From 1973 to 2002, trends in streamflow were spatially variable (up in some streams and down in others) and, with a few exceptions, generally were not statistically significant. 5. Short-term variability in streamflow is
Long-Term Trends Worldwide in Ambient NO2 Concentrations Inferred from Satellite Observations.
Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Boys, Brian L; van Donkelaar, Aaron
2016-03-01
Air pollution is associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Satellite remote sensing provides globally consistent decadal-scale observations of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution. We determined global population-weighted annual mean NO2 concentrations from 1996 through 2012. We used observations of NO2 tropospheric column densities from three satellite instruments in combination with chemical transport modeling to produce a global 17-year record of ground-level NO2 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. We calculated linear trends in population-weighted annual mean NO2 (PWMNO2) concentrations in different regions around the world. We found that PWMNO2 in high-income North America (Canada and the United States) decreased more steeply than in any other region, having declined at a rate of -4.7%/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -5.3, -4.1]. PWMNO2 decreased in western Europe at a rate of -2.5%/year (95% CI: -3.0, -2.1). The highest PWMNO2 occurred in high-income Asia Pacific (predominantly Japan and South Korea) in 1996, with a subsequent decrease of -2.1%/year (95% CI: -2.7, -1.5). In contrast, PWMNO2 almost tripled in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Taiwan) at a rate of 6.7%/year (95% CI: 6.0, 7.3). The satellite-derived estimates of trends in ground-level NO2 were consistent with regional trends inferred from data obtained from ground-station monitoring networks in North America (within 0.7%/year) and Europe (within 0.3%/year). Our rankings of regional average NO2 and long-term trends differed from the satellite-derived estimates of fine particulate matter reported elsewhere, demonstrating the utility of both indicators to describe changing pollutant mixtures. Long-term trends in satellite-derived ambient NO2 provide new information about changing global exposure to ambient air pollution. Our estimates are publicly available at http://fizz.phys.dal.ca/~atmos/martin/?page_id=232.
Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh
2017-12-01
Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.
On long-term ozone trends at Hohenpeissenberg
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Claude, H.; Vandersee, W.; Wege, K.
1994-01-01
More than 2000 ozone soundings and a large number of Dobson observations have been performed since 1967 in a unique procedure. The achieved very homogeneous data sets were used to evaluate significant long-term trends both in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The trend amounts to about plus 2 percent per year in the troposphere and to about minus 0.5 percent per year in the stratosphere. Extremely low ozone records obtained during winter 1991/92 are discussed in the light of the long term series. The winter mean of the ozone column is the lowest one of the series. The ozone deficit occurred mainly in the lower stratosphere. One cause may be the Pinatubo cloud. Even compared with the extreme winter mean following the El Chichon eruption the ozone content was lower. Additionally ozone was reduced by dynamical effects due to unusual weather situations.
Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laštovička, Jan
2017-04-01
When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ancellet, G.; Gaudel, A.; Godin-Beekmann, S.
2016-12-01
Tropospheric ozone vertical profile measurements have been carried out at OHP (Observatoire de Haute Provence, 44°N, 6.7°E, 690 m) since 1991 using both UV DIAL (DIfferential Absorption Lidar) and ECC (Electrochemical Concentration Cell) ozonesondes. For the first time, ECC and lidar data measured at the same site, have been compared over a 24 year period. The comparison conducted reveals a bias between both measurement types (ECC - lidar) of the order of 0.6 ppbv. The measurements of both instruments have been however combined to decrease the impact of short-term atmospheric variability on the trend estimate. Air mass trajectories have been calculated for all the ozone observations available at OHP including ECMWF potential vorticity (PV) and humidity chnage along the trajectories. The interannual ozone variability shows a negligible trend in the mid troposphere, but a 0.36 ppbv/year significant positive ozone trend in the upper troposphere. The trends will be discussed using the variability of the meteorological parameters. Data clustering using PV and air mass trajectories is useful to identify the role of Stratosphere-Tropopshere Exchanges and long range transport of pollutants in the observed long term trends. In the lower troposphere, the interannual variability shows contrasted trends with an ozone decrease between 1998 and 2008, consistent with the NOx emission decrease, but a new period of ozone increase since 2008 which is not very well understood.
Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.
2014-08-01
Detection and attribution of human influence on sea level rise are important topics that have not yet been explored in depth. We question whether the sea level changes (SLC) over the past century were natural in origin. SLC exhibit power law long-term correlations. By estimating Hurst exponent through Detrended Fluctuation Analysis and by applying statistics of Lennartz and Bunde, we search the lower bounds of statistically significant external sea level trends in longest tidal records worldwide. We provide statistical evidences that the observed SLC, at global and regional scales, is beyond its natural internal variability. The minimum anthropogenic sea level trend (MASLT) contributes to the observed sea level rise more than 50% in New York, Baltimore, San Diego, Marseille, and Mumbai. A MASLT is about 1 mm/yr in global sea level reconstructions that is more than half of the total observed sea level trend during the XXth century.
Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zemba, Michael J.; Nessel, James A.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.
2015-01-01
Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASAs White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 to 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 to 2014.
Long-Term Trends in Space-Ground Atmospheric Propagation Measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zemba, Michael J.; Morse, Jacquelynne R.; Nessel, James A.
2015-01-01
Propagation measurement campaigns are critical to characterizing the atmospheric behavior of a location and efficiently designing space-ground links. However, as global climate change affects weather patterns, the long-term trends of propagation data may be impacted over periods of decades or longer. Particularly, at high microwave frequencies (10 GHz and above), rain plays a dominant role in the attenuation statistics, and it has been observed that rain events over the past 50 years have trended toward increased frequency, intensity, and rain height. In the interest of quantifying the impact of these phenomena on long-term trends in propagation data, this paper compares two 20 GHz measurement campaigns both conducted at NASA's White Sands facility in New Mexico. The first is from the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation campaign from 1994 - 1998, while the second is amplitude data recorded during a site test interferometer (STI) phase characterization campaign from 2009 - 2014.
Long-term trends and a sustainability transition
Kates, Robert W.; Parris, Thomas M.
2003-01-01
How do long-term global trends affect a transition to sustainability? We emphasize the “multitrend” nature of 10 classes of trends, which makes them complex, contradictory, and often poorly understood. Each class includes trends that make a sustainability transition more feasible as well as trends that make it more difficult. Taken in their entirety, they serve as a checklist for the consideration of global trends that impact place-based sustainability studies. PMID:12829798
Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laštovička, Jan
2016-04-01
Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.
High-Contrast Imaging of Intermediate-Mass Giants with Long-Term Radial Velocity Trends
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi;
2016-01-01
A radial velocity (RV) survey for intermediate-mass giants has been operated for over a decade at Okayama Astrophysical Observatory (OAO). The OAO survey has revealed that some giants show long-term linear RV accelerations (RV trends), indicating the presence of outer companions. Direct imaging observations can help clarify what objects generate these RV trends. We present the results of high-contrast imaging observations of six intermediate-mass giants with long-term RV trends using the Subaru Telescope and HiCIAO camera. We detected co-moving companions to gamma Hya B (0.61+0.12 -0.14 Stellar Mass), HD 5608 B (0.10 +/- 0.01 Stellar Mass), and HD 109272 B (0.28 +/- 0.06 Stellar Mass). For the remaining targets( Dra, 18 Del, and HD 14067) we exclude companions more massive than 30-60 M(sub Jup) at projected separations of 1''-7''. We examine whether these directly imaged companions or unidentified long-period companions can account for the RV trends observed around the six giants. We find that the Kozai mechanism can explain the high eccentricity of the inner planets Dra b, HD 5608 b, and HD 14067 b.
High-contrast Imaging of Intermediate-mass Giants with Long-term Radial Velocity Trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ryu, Tsuguru; Sato, Bun'ei; Kuzuhara, Masayuki; Narita, Norio; Takahashi, Yasuhiro H.; Uyama, Taichi; Kudo, Tomoyuki; Kusakabe, Nobuhiko; Hashimoto, Jun; Omiya, Masashi; Harakawa, Hiroki; Abe, Lyu; Ando, Hiroyasu; Brandner, Wolfgang; Brandt, Timothy D.; Carson, Joseph C.; Currie, Thayne; Egner, Sebastian; Feldt, Markus; Goto, Miwa; Grady, Carol A.; Guyon, Olivier; Hayano, Yutaka; Hayashi, Masahiko; Hayashi, Saeko S.; Hełminiak, Krzysztof G.; Henning, Thomas; Hodapp, Klaus W.; Ida, Shigeru; Ishii, Miki; Itoh, Yoichi; Iye, Masanori; Izumiura, Hideyuki; Janson, Markus; Kambe, Eiji; Kandori, Ryo; Knapp, Gillian R.; Kokubo, Eiichiro; Kwon, Jungmi; Matsuo, Taro; Mayama, Satoshi; McElwain, Michael W.; Mede, Kyle; Miyama, Shoken; Morino, Jun-Ichi; Moro-Martin, Amaya; Nishimura, Tetsuo; Pyo, Tae-Soo; Serabyn, Eugene; Suenaga, Takuya; Suto, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Ryuji; Takami, Michihiro; Takato, Naruhisa; Takeda, Yoichi; Terada, Hiroshi; Thalmann, Christian; Turner, Edwin L.; Watanabe, Makoto; Wisniewski, John; Yamada, Toru; Yoshida, Michitoshi; Takami, Hideki; Usuda, Tomonori; Tamura, Motohide
2016-07-01
A radial velocity (RV) survey for intermediate-mass giants has been in operation for over a decade at Okayama Astrophysical Observatory (OAO). The OAO survey has revealed that some giants show long-term linear RV accelerations (RV trends), indicating the presence of outer companions. Direct-imaging observations can help clarify what objects generate these RV trends. We present the results of high-contrast imaging observations of six intermediate-mass giants with long-term RV trends using the Subaru Telescope and HiCIAO camera. We detected co-moving companions to γ Hya B ({0.61}-0.14+0.12{M}⊙ ), HD 5608 B (0.10+/- 0.01{M}⊙ ), and HD 109272 B (0.28+/- 0.06{M}⊙ ). For the remaining targets (ι Dra, 18 Del, and HD 14067), we exclude companions more massive than 30-60 M Jup at projected separations of 1″-7″. We examine whether these directly imaged companions or unidentified long-period companions can account for the RV trends observed around the six giants. We find that the Kozai mechanism can explain the high eccentricity of the inner planets ι Dra b, HD 5608 b, and HD 14067 b.
Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality
Farmer, Robert G; Leonard, Marty L; Mills Flemming, Joanna E; Anderson, Sean C
2014-01-01
Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario (“OBBA”) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (“BBS”), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible. PMID:25360286
Assessing the Impact of Different Measurement Time Intervals on Observed Long-Term Wind Speed Trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; McVicar, T.; Jerez, S.; Revuelto, J.; López Moreno, J. I.
2014-12-01
During the last two decades climate studies have reported a tendency toward a decline in measured near-surface wind speed in some regions of Europe, North America, Asia and Australia. This weakening in observed wind speed has been recently termed "global stilling", showing a worldwide average trend of -0.140 m s-1 dec-1 during last 50-years. The precise cause of the "global stilling" remains largely uncertain and has been hypothetically attributed to several factors, mainly related to: (i) an increasing surface roughness (i.e. forest growth, land use changes, and urbanization); (ii) a slowdown in large-scale atmospheric circulation; (iii) instrumental drifts and technological improvements, maintenance, and shifts in measurements sites and calibration issues; (iv) sunlight dimming due to air pollution; and (v) astronomical changes. This study proposed a novel investigation aimed at analyzing how different measurement time intervals used to calculate a wind speed series can affect the sign and magnitude of long-term wind speed trends. For instance, National Weather Services across the globe estimate daily average wind speed using different time intervals and formulae that may affect the trend results. Firstly, we carried out a comprehensive review of wind studies reporting the sign and magnitude of wind speed trend and the sampling intervals used. Secondly, we analyzed near-surface wind speed trends recorded at 59 land-based stations across Spain comparing monthly mean wind speed series obtained from: (a) daily mean wind speed data averaged from standard 10-min mean observations at 0000, 0700, 1300 and 1800 UTC; and (b) average wind speed of 24 hourly measurements (i.e., wind run measurements) from 0000 to 2400 UTC. Thirdly and finally, we quantified the impact of anemometer drift (i.e. bearing malfunction) by presenting preliminary results (1-year of paired measurements) from a comparison of one new anemometer sensor against one malfunctioned anenometer sensor due
Tracking Trends in Fractional Forest Cover Change using Long Term Data from AVHRR and MODIS
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, D. H.; DiMiceli, C.; Sohlberg, R. A.; Hansen, M.; Carroll, M.; Kelly, M.; Townshend, J. R.
2014-12-01
Tree cover affects terrestrial energy and water exchanges, photosynthesis and transpiration, net primary production, and carbon and nutrient fluxes. Accurate and long-term continuous observation of tree cover change is critical for the study of the gradual ecosystem change. Tree cover is most commonly inferred from categorical maps which may inadequately represent within-class heterogeneity for many analyses. Alternatively, Vegetation Continuous Fields data measures fractions or proportions of pixel area. Recent development in remote sensing data processing and cross sensor calibration techniques enabled the continuous, long-term observations such as Land Long-Term Data Records. Such data products and their surface reflectance data have enhanced the possibilities for long term Vegetation Continuous Fields data, thus enabling the estimation of long term trend of fractional forest cover change. In this presentation, we will summarize the progress in algorithm development including automation of training selection for deciduous and evergreen forest, the preliminary results, and its future applications to relate trends in fractional forest cover change and environmental change.
Long-term solar-terrestrial observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1988-01-01
The results of an 18-month study of the requirements for long-term monitoring and archiving of solar-terrestrial data is presented. The value of long-term solar-terrestrial observations is discussed together with parameters, associated measurements, and observational problem areas in each of the solar-terrestrial links (the sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere). Some recommendations are offered for coordinated planning for long-term solar-terrestrial observations.
Common Calibration Source for Monitoring Long-term Ozone Trends
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kowalewski, Matthew
2004-01-01
Accurate long-term satellite measurements are crucial for monitoring the recovery of the ozone layer. The slow pace of the recovery and limited lifetimes of satellite monitoring instruments demands that datasets from multiple observation systems be combined to provide the long-term accuracy needed. A fundamental component of accurately monitoring long-term trends is the calibration of these various instruments. NASA s Radiometric Calibration and Development Facility at the Goddard Space Flight Center has provided resources to minimize calibration biases between multiple instruments through the use of a common calibration source and standardized procedures traceable to national standards. The Facility s 50 cm barium sulfate integrating sphere has been used as a common calibration source for both US and international satellite instruments, including the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments, Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV), Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI), Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) (ESA), Scanning Imaging SpectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartographY (SCIAMACHY) (ESA), and others. We will discuss the advantages of using a common calibration source and its effects on long-term ozone data sets. In addition, sphere calibration results from various instruments will be presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the long-term characterization of the source itself.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perrone, Loredana; Mikhailov, Andrey; Cesaroni, Claudio; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Santis, Angelo De; Pezzopane, Michael; Scotto, Carlo
2017-09-01
A recently proposed self-consistent approach to the analysis of thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends has been applied to Rome ionosonde summer noontime observations for the (1957-2015) period. This approach includes: (i) a method to extract ionospheric parameter long-term variations; (ii) a method to retrieve from observed foF1 neutral composition (O, O2, N2), exospheric temperature, Tex and the total solar EUV flux with λ < 1050 Å; and (iii) a combined analysis of the ionospheric and thermospheric parameter long-term variations using the theory of ionospheric F-layer formation. Atomic oxygen, [O] and [O]/[N2] ratio control foF1 and foF2 while neutral temperature, Tex controls hmF2 long-term variations. Noontime foF2 and foF1 long-term variations demonstrate a negative linear trend estimated over the (1962-2010) period which is mainly due to atomic oxygen decrease after ˜1990. A linear trend in (δhmF2)11y estimated over the (1962-2010) period is very small and insignificant reflecting the absence of any significant trend in neutral temperature. The retrieved neutral gas density, ρ atomic oxygen, [O] and exospheric temperature, Tex long-term variations are controlled by solar and geomagnetic activity, i.e. they have a natural origin. The residual trends estimated over the period of ˜5 solar cycles (1957-2015) are very small (<0.5% per decade) and statistically insignificant.
Nitrogen Dioxide long term trends at mid and high latitudes by means of ground based observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bortoli, D.; Petritoli, A.; Giovanelli, G.; Kostadinov, I.; Ravegnani, F.
2003-04-01
The interactions between mid- and high latitudes atmospheric changes are going to be one of the main issue for the future of stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry research. A more detailed study of the ozone trends as well as a wider comprehension of the interactions with lower and higher latitudes are maybe the main arguments to which scientist should address their works in order to build-up a more detailed picture of what scenarios we have to face in the near future. GASCODs type spectrometers (Gas Analyzer Spectrometer Correlating Optical Differences) are installed at the "Ottavio Vittori" research station (44.11N, 10.42E, 2165 m asl) since June 1993, at the Italian Antarctic Station (74.69S, 164.12E) since December 1995 and at the STIL-BAS station (42.42N, 25.63E) since 1999. The instruments measure zenith scattered solar radiation between 407 and 464 nm. Nitrogen dioxide total column is retrieved with DOAS methodology. The seasonal trend of NO2 vc values is reported and it shows the expected behaviour: maximum values during the summer period while the minimum occur in the winter season in both the hemispheres. A typical behaviour of the AMPM ratio at high latitudes is highlight. A Fourier analysis is proposed as a tool to investigate the long-term components of nitrogen dioxide stratospheric amount. Results are presented and the NO2 trend is evidenced and commented. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The author Daniele Bortoli was financially supported by the Subprograma Ciência e Tecnologia do 3° Quadro Comunitário de Apoio. The National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA) and the Quantification and Interpretation of Long-Term UV-Vis Observations of the Stratosphere (QUILT) project supported this research.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Musolff, Andreas; Selle, Benny; Fleckenstein, Jan H.; Oosterwoud, Marieke R.; Tittel, Jörg
2016-04-01
The instream concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are rising in many catchments of the northern hemisphere. Elevated concentrations of DOC, mainly in the form of colored humic components, increase efforts and costs of drinking water purification. In this study, we evaluated a long-term dataset of 110 catchments draining into German drinking water reservoirs in order to assess sources of DOC and drivers of a potential long-term change. The average DOC concentrations across the wide range of different catchments were found to be well explained by the catchment's topographic wetness index. Higher wetness indices were connected to higher average DOC concentrations, which implies that catchments with shallow topography and pronounced riparian wetlands mobilize more DOC. Overall, 37% of the investigated catchments showed a significant long-term increase in DOC concentrations, while 22% exhibited significant negative trends. Moreover, we found that increasing trends in DOC were positively correlated to trends in dissolved iron concentrations at pH≤6 due to remobilization of DOC previously sorbed to iron minerals. Both, increasing trends in DOC and dissolve iron were found to be connected to decreasing trends and low concentrations of nitrate (below ~6 mg/L). This was especially observed in forested catchments where atmospheric N-depositions were the major source for nitrate availability. In these catchments, we also found long-term increases of phosphate concentrations. Therefore, we argue that dissolved iron, DOC and phosphate were jointly released under iron-reducing conditions when nitrate as a competing electron acceptor was too low in concentrations to prevent the microbial iron reduction. In contrast, we could not explain the observed increasing trends in DOC, iron and phosphate concentrations by the long-term trends of pH, sulfate or precipitation. Altogether this study gives strong evidence that both, source and long-term increases in DOC are
The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Fouquet, Roger; Schubert, E. Fred
Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, tradedmore » at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.« less
Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam
2018-01-01
We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.
Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.
Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L
2018-06-01
California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Comparison of long-term trends from reanalyses
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kozubek, M.
2017-12-01
The long-term trend of different atmospheric parameters has been studied separately during previous years in many papers. This study is focused on the temperature, wind (u and v component), geopotential height and water vapour trends during 1979-2016. We present the trend for each month with respect to ozone turnaround during mid 1990s. The different reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-NOE) are used for comparison. We analyzed every grid point to reduce the problem with zonal averages in different pressure levels. The results will show the complex view on the trend in the middle atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere). This comparison can give us the clue which reanalysis is better for studying different phenomena (QBO, NAO, ENSO, etc.) and which one has some issues.
Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.
Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer
2013-10-01
Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.
Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.
Bernard, Aude
2017-12-01
Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.
Long-term Trend of Satellite-observed Chlorophyll-a Concentration Variations in the East/Japan Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, J. E.; PARK, K. A.
2016-02-01
Long-term time-series of satellite ocean color data enable us to analyze the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystem through chlorophyll-a concentration as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. In this study, we constructed a 17 year-long time-series dataset (1998-2014) of chlorophyll-a concentration by combining SeaWiFS (Obrview-2, 1997-2010) and MODIS (Aqua, 2002-present) data in the East Sea (Japan Sea). Several types of errors such as anonymously high values (a speckle error), stripe-like patterns, discrepancy originating from time gap between the two satellites were eliminated to enhance the accuracy of chlorophyll-a concentration data. The composited chlorophyll-a concentration maps, passing through the post-processing of the speckle errors, were improved significantly, by 14% of abnormal variability in maximum. Using the database, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll-a concentration in the East Sea. Spatial distribution of long-term trend of chlorophyll-a concentration indicated obvious distinction between northern and southern regions of the subpolar front. It revealed predominant seasonal variabilities as well as long-term changes in the timings of spring bloom. This study addresses the important role of local climate change on fast changing ecosystem of the East Sea as one of miniature oceans.
Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun
2017-10-01
Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara e.; Bosilovich, Michael G.
2007-01-01
The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.
2016-12-01
Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended
Gender-Based Violence in India: Long-Term Trends
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Simister, John; Mehta, Parnika S.
2010-01-01
This article examines long-term trends in Indian society regarding domestic violence between husband and wife, and attitudes to such violence. This article analyzes crime data and uses data from several Indian household surveys: "Work Attitudes and Spending" surveys (1992 to 2007); "World Values Survey" (1990, 1995, 2001, and…
Long-term Trends in the Solar Wind Proton Measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.
2016-11-01
We examine the long-term time evolution (1965-2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature (T p) and speed (V p) and between the proton density (n p) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature-speed (T p-V p) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density-speed (n p-V p) relationship is not linear like the T p-V p relationship, we perform power-law fits for n p-V p. The exponent (steepness in the n p-V p relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n p for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n p is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n p variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n p-V p exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T p and V p data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.
Long-term trends in railroad service and capacity for U.S. agriculture
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2000-11-01
In this paper, the long-term trends in railroad services and capacity for U.S. agriculture are identified and described, particularly in terms of what these trends portend for agricultural shippers absent any change in the economically deregulated en...
Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo
2017-10-01
This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.
Zeitgeists and development trends in long-term care facility design.
Wang, Chia-Hui; Kuo, Nai-Wen
2006-06-01
Through literature analysis, in-depth interviews, and the application of the Delphi survey, this study explored long-term care resident priorities with regard to long-term care facility design in terms of both physical and psychological needs. This study further clarified changing trends in long-term care concepts; illustrated the impact that such changes are having on long-term care facility design; and summarized zeitgeists related to the architectural design of long-term care facilities. Results of our Delphi survey indicated the following top five priorities in long-term care facility design: (1) creating a home-like feeling; (2) adhering to Universal Design concepts; (3) providing well-defined private sleeping areas; (4) providing adequate social space; and (5) decentralizing residents' rooms into clusters. The three major zeitgeists related to long-term care facility design include: (1) modern long-term care facilities should abandon their traditional "hospital" image and gradually reposition facilities into homelike settings; (2) institution-based care for the elderly should be de-institutionalized under the concept of aging-in-place; and (3) living clusters, rather than traditional hospital-like wards, should be designed into long-term care facilities.
Is Ecosystem-Atmosphere Observation in Long-Term Networks actually Science?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmid, H. P. E.
2015-12-01
Science uses observations to build knowledge by testable explanations and predictions. The "scientific method" requires controlled systematic observation to examine questions, hypotheses and predictions. Thus, enquiry along the scientific method responds to questions of the type "what if …?" In contrast, long-term observation programs follow a different strategy: we commonly take great care to minimize our influence on the environment of our measurements, with the aim to maximize their external validity. We observe what we think are key variables for ecosystem-atmosphere exchange and ask questions such as "what happens next?" or "how did this happen?" This apparent deviation from the scientific method begs the question whether any explanations we come up with for the phenomena we observe are actually contributing to testable knowledge, or whether their value remains purely anecdotal. Here, we present examples to argue that, under certain conditions, data from long-term observations and observation networks can have equivalent or even higher scientific validity than controlled experiments. Internal validity is particularly enhanced if observations are combined with modeling. Long-term observations of ecosystem-atmosphere fluxes identify trends and temporal scales of variability. Observation networks reveal spatial patterns and variations, and long-term observation networks combine both aspects. A necessary condition for such observations to gain validity beyond the anecdotal is the requirement that the data are comparable: a comparison of two measured values, separated in time or space, must inform us objectively whether (e.g.) one value is larger than the other. In turn, a necessary condition for the comparability of data is the compatibility of the sensors and procedures used to generate them. Compatibility ensures that we compare "apples to apples": that measurements conducted in identical conditions give the same values (within suitable uncertainty intervals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu
2018-06-01
Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.
Long-term trends in metals, PCBs, and pesticides in mussels from San Francisco Bay
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.; Taberski, K.
1995-12-31
Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program in conjunction with the San Francisco Estuary Institute (in the last 2 years) have provided continues funding for the past 15 years to mussel watch studies in San Francisco Bay. Long-term trends have been identified that describe declines in many organics and metals during the last 15 years. There are also some metals and organics that show no specific trends. Themore » declines indicate that the banning or restriction of usage of some of these contaminants has resulted in substantial decreases of these substances in the environment.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woo, Hye-Jin; Park, Kyung-Ae
2017-09-01
Significant wave height (SWH) data of nine satellite altimeters were validated with in-situ SWH measurements from buoy stations in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The spatial and temporal variability of extreme SWHs was investigated by defining the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles based on percentile analysis. The annual mean of extreme SWHs was dramatically increased by 3.45 m in the EJS, which is significantly higher than the normal mean of about 1.44 m. The spatial distributions of SWHs showed significantly higher values in the eastern region of the EJS than those in the western part. Characteristic seasonality was found from the time-series SWHs with high SWHs (>2.5 m) in winter but low values (<1 m) in summer. The trends of the normal and extreme (99th percentile) SWHs in the EJS had a positive value of 0.0056 m year-1 and 0.0125 m year-1, respectively. The long-term trend demonstrated that higher SWH values were more extreme with time during the past decades. The predominant spatial distinctions between the coastal regions in the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and open ocean regions were presented. In spring, both normal and extreme SWHs showed substantially increasing trends in the EJS. Finally, we first presented the impact of the long-term trend of extreme SWHs on the marine ecosystem through vertical mixing enhancement in the upper ocean of the EJS.
Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring
Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.
2012-01-01
This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.
Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.
Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy
2017-02-01
Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO 2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO 2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for. © 2016 The Authors. Global
The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lian, Tao
2016-04-01
In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.
20 year long term air quality trends in Israel
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luria, M.
2017-12-01
The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.
Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.
Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A
2015-05-01
Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Lin; Li, Zhanqing; Yang, Xin; Gong, Hainan; Li, Chao; Xiong, Anyuan
2016-04-01
Understanding the causes of long-term temperature trends is at the core of climate change studies. Any observed trend can result from natural variability or anthropogenic influences or both. In the present study, we evaluated the performance of 18 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 on simulating the Asian diurnal temperature range (DTR) and explored the potential causes of the long-term trend in the DTR by examining the response of the DTR to natural forcing (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) and anthropogenic forcing (anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols) in the historical period of 1961-2005. For the climatology, the multimodel ensemble mean reproduced the geographical distribution and amplitude of the DTR over eastern China and India but underestimated the magnitudes of the DTR over the Tibetan Plateau and the high-latitude regions of the Asian continent. These negative biases in the DTR over frigid zones existed in most models. Seasonal biases in the DTR pattern from models were similar to the bias in the annual mean DTR pattern. Based on three selected state-of-the-art models, the observed decreasing trend in the DTR over Asia was reasonably reproduced in the all-forcing run. A comparison of separate forcing experiments revealed that anthropogenic forcing plays the dominant role in the declining trend in the DTR. Observations and model simulations showed that GHG forcing is mainly responsible for the negative trends in the DTR over Asia but that anthropogenic aerosol forcing was also behind the decreasing trend in the DTR over China and especially over eastern China.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Shun-Rong; Holt, John M.; Erickson, Philip J.; Goncharenko, Larisa P.
2018-05-01
Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) and Mikhailov et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA023909) have recently examined thermospheric and ionospheric long-term trends using a data set of four thermospheric parameters (Tex, [O], [N2], and [O2]) and solar EUV flux. These data were derived from one single ionospheric parameter, foF1, using a nonlinear fitting procedure involving a photochemical model for the F1 peak. The F1 peak is assumed at the transition height ht with the linear recombination for atomic oxygen ions being equal to the quadratic recombination for molecular ions. This procedure has a number of obvious problems that are not addressed or not sufficiently justified. The potentially large ambiguities and biases in derived parameters make them unsuitable for precise quantitative ionospheric and thermospheric long-term trend studies. Furthermore, we assert that Perrone and Mikhailov (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024193) conclusions regarding incoherent scatter radar (ISR) ion temperature analysis for long-term trend studies are incorrect and in particular are based on a misunderstanding of the nature of the incoherent scatter radar measurement process. Large ISR data sets remain a consistent and statistically robust method for determining long term secular plasma temperature trends.
Long-term streamflow trends on California’s north coast
J. Eli Asarian; Jeffrey D. Walker
2017-01-01
Using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey, we assessed long-term (1953-2012) trends in streamflow on Californiaâs North Coast including many sites in the redwood region. The study area spans from the Smith River to the Mattole River and includes the Eel and Klamath-Trinity basins. Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) is a time-weighted summary of...
Preface to Long-term trends in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laštovička, J.; Lübken, F.-J.
2017-10-01
The anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases influence the atmosphere at nearly all altitudes between the ground and the topside ionosphere and upper thermosphere, thus affecting not only life on the surface, but also the space-based technological systems on which we increasingly rely. This special issue deals with long-term trends in the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, and partly also in the stratosphere, which are predominantly (but not only) caused by anthropogenic factors, particularly by the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The special issue is based on selected papers from the 9th IAGA/ICMA/SCOSTEP workshop ;Long-Term Changes and Trends in the Atmosphere; held in September 2016 in Kühlungsborn, Germany. The 10th workshop will be held in June 2018 in Hefei, China.
Long-term trends in DDT, PCBs, and chlordane in mussels from California
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stephenson, M.D.; Tjeerdema, R.S.
1994-12-31
Many contaminant programs have been established to study the geographical distributions and long-term trends of potential pollutants, but unfortunately, many have been short-lived because of economic cutbacks, providing limited information on long-term trends. The California State Mussel Watch program, however, has been continuously funded for the past 15 years. Several sites have been evaluated and were sampled often enough to obtain statistical resolution. Chlordane was evaluated at 29 stations, with 48% showing significant decreases over time; DDT was evaluated at 35 sites, with 43% showing significant declines; and PCBs were evaluated at 47 sites, with 21% showing significant drops overmore » time. Both DDT and PCBs showed declines, corresponding to decreases in their concentrations in the effluent, at sites located in the vicinity of the Los Angeles County municipal sewage outfall. This long-term investigation indicates that, contrary to public opinion, the banning of DDT, chlordane, and PCBs by the USEPA has led to overall improvement in water quality.« less
Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.
2011-12-01
Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.
A mechanism of midlatitude noontime foE long-term variations inferred from European observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mikhailov, A. V.; Perrone, L.; Nusinov, A. A.
2017-04-01
Manually scaled June noontime monthly median foE values at three European stations Rome, Juliusruh, and Slough/Chilton were used to understand the mechanism of foE long-term variations. The 11 year running mean smoothed foE manifests long-term (for some solar cycles) variations with the rising phase at the end of 1960-1985 and the falling phase after 1985. A close relationship (even in details) between (foEave)11y and (R12)11y variations with the correlation coefficient of 0.996 (absolutely significant according to Fisher F criterion) suggests that the Sun is the source of these (foEave)11y long-term variations. After removing solar activity long-term variations the residual (foEave)11y trend is very small ( 0.029% per decade) being absolutely insignificant. This means that all (foEave)11y variations are removed with one solar activity index, (R12)11y, i.e., this means that long-term variations are fully controlled by solar activity. Theory of midlatitude daytime E region tells us that long-term variations of solar EUV in two lines λ = 977 Å (CIII) and λ = 1025.7 Å (HLyβ) and X-ray radiation with λ < 100 Å (both manifesting the same long-term variations with the rising phase at the end of 1960-1985 and the falling phase after 1985) are responsible for the observed (foEave)11y variations. Therefore, the observed daytime midlatitude foE long-term variations have a natural (not anthropogenic) origin related to long-term variations of solar activity. No peculiarities in relation with the last deep solar minimum in 2008-2009 have been revealed.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Bin
2018-04-01
Understanding the spatiotemporal change trend of global crop growth and multiple cropping system under climate change scenarios is a critical requirement for supporting the food security issue that maintains the function of human society. Many studies have predicted the effects of climate changes on crop production using a combination of filed studies and models, but there has been limited evidence relating decadal-scale climate change to global crop growth and the spatiotemporal distribution of multiple cropping system. Using long-term satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed climate data from 1982 to 2012, we investigated the crop growth trend, spatiotemporal pattern trend of agricultural cropping intensity, and their potential correlations with respect to the climate change drivers at a global scale. Results show that 82.97 % of global cropland maximum NDVI witnesses an increased trend while 17.03 % of that shows a decreased trend over the past three decades. The spatial distribution of multiple cropping system is observed to expand from lower latitude to higher latitude, and the increased cropping intensity is also witnessed globally. In terms of regional major crop zones, results show that all nine selected zones have an obvious upward trend of crop maximum NDVI (p < 0.001), and as for climatic drivers, the gradual temperature and precipitation changes have had a measurable impact on the crop growth trend.
Long-term coastal measurements for large-scale climate trends characterization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pomaro, Angela; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero
2017-04-01
Multi-decadal time-series of observational wave data beginning in the late 1970's are relatively rare. The present study refers to the analysis of the 37-year long directional wave time-series recorded between 1979 and 2015 at the CNR-ISMAR (Institute of Marine Sciences of the Italian National Research Council) "Acqua Alta" oceanographic research tower, located in the Northern Adriatic Sea, 15 km offshore the Venice lagoon, on 16 m depth. The extent of the time series allows to exploit its content not only for modelling purposes or short-term statistical analyses, but also at the climatological scale thanks to the peculiar meteorological and oceanographic aspects of the coastal area where this relevant infrastructure has been installed. We explore the dataset both to characterize the local average climate and its variability, and to detect the possible long-term trends that might be suggestive of, or emphasize, large scale circulation patterns and trends. Measured data are essential for the assessment, and often for the calibration, of model data, generally, if long enough, also the reference also for climate studies. By applying this analysis to an area well characterized from the meteorological point of view, we first assess the changes in time based on measured data, and then we compare them to the ones derived from the ERA-Interim regional simulation over the same area, thus showing the strong improvement that is still needed to get reliable climate models projections on coastal areas and the Mediterranean Region as a whole. Moreover, long term hindcast aiming at climatic considerations are well known for 1) underestimating, if their resolution is not high enough, the actual wave heights as well as for 2) being strongly affected by different conditions over time that are likely to introduce spurious trends of variable magnitude. In particular the different amount, in time, of assimilated data by the hindcast models, directly and indirectly affects the results
Overview of the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere(LOTUS) SPARC Activity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Hubert, D.; Godin-Beekman, S.; Damadeo, R. P.; Sofieva, V.; Hassler, B.
2017-12-01
WMO/UNEP Assessments on the state of the ozone layer (aka Ozone Assessments) require an accurate evaluation of both total ozone and ozone profile long-term trends. These trend results are of utmost importance in order to evaluate the success of the Montreal Protocol with regards to the recovery of the ozone layer and the effect of climate change on this recovery, in the main regions of the stratosphere (polar, mid-latitudes, tropics). A previous activity sponsored by SPARC, IO3C, IGACO-O3 and NDACC (SI2N) successfully provided estimates of ozone profile decreasing trend in the period 1979 - 1997 and recovery trend in the period 1998 -2012, from a variety of long term records, however its results were different from those published in the WMO 2014 Ozone Assessment report. For the WMO/UNEP 2018 Ozone Assessment, a clear understanding of ozone trends and their significance as a function of altitude and latitude is still needed, nearly 20 years after the peak of ozone depleting substances in the stratosphere. In the most recent years, new merged satellite data sets and long awaited homogenized ozonesonde data series have been produced. There is thus a strong interest in the scientific community to understand limitations in determining significance of ozone recovery. In order to address the issues left pending after the end of SI2N, a comprehensive evaluation of all long term data sets available together with their relative drifts was performed through the SPARC LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and uncertainties in Stratosphere) activity. Evaluation of consistencies in results from various statistical trend regression models, sensitivity to the selection of predictors, evaluation of sampling-related uncertainties and impact of the measurement error propagation on ozone trend calculation was among subjects of investigation. This presentation will provide overview of the LOTUS project goals, provide highlights of the results and discuss the future goals.
Ionospheric Trend Over Wuhan During 1947-2017: Comparison Between Simulation and Observation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yue, Xinan; Hu, Lianhuan; Wei, Yong; Wan, Weixing; Ning, Baiqi
2018-02-01
Since Roble and Dickinson (1989), who drew the community's attention about the greenhouse gas effect on the ionosphere, huge efforts have been implemented on ionospheric climate study. However, direct comparison between observations and simulations is still rare. Recently, the Wuhan ionosonde observations were digitized and standardized through unified method back to 1947. In this study, the NCAR-TIEGCM was driven by Mauna Loa Observatory observed CO2 level and International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) geomagnetic field to simulate their effects on ionospheric long-term trend over Wuhan. Only March equinox was considered in both data analysis and simulation. Simulation results show that the CO2 and geomagnetic field have comparable effect on hmF2 trend, while geomagnetic field effect is stronger than CO2 on foF2 trend over Wuhan. Both factors result in obvious but different diurnal variations of foF2/hmF2 long-term trends. The geomagnetic field effect is nonlinear versus years since the long-term variation of geomagnetic field intensity and orientation is complex. Mean value of foF2 and hmF2 trend is (-0.0021 MHz/yr, -0.106 km/yr) and (-0.0022 MHz/yr, -0.0763 km/yr) for observation and simulation, respectively. Regarding the diurnal variation of the trend, the simulation accords well with that of observation except hmF2 results around 12 UT. Overall, good agreement between observation and simulation illustrates the good quality of Wuhan ionosonde long-term data and the validity of ancient ionosphere reconstruction based on realistic indices driving simulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kataoka, F.; Higuchi, R.; Kuze, A.; Shiomi, K.
2017-12-01
The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) is designed to measure the concentration of major greenhouse gases from space. GOSAT carry the Fourier-Transform Spectrometer, which have three shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands and one thermal infrared (TIR) band. The SWIR bands correspond to the O2A band (0.76 mm), weak-CO2 (1.6 mm) and strong-CO2 (2.0 mm). The SWIR bands observe the backscattered sunlight from surface and retrieve the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon dioxide and methane. The 0.76 mm band can also detect the solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) using high spectral-resolution spectra in O2A band and solar absorption feature (Fraunhofer lines). GOSAT have operated more than 8 years and targeted various kinds of land-cover area (forest, grass, desert, etc.). The long term CO2 and SIF data set potential to address the rate of CO2 uptake through plant photosynthesis. In this work, we evaluated a trend and seasonal fluctuation components of CO2 and SIF using the liner and trigonometric functions fitting. We analyzed the amplitude and phase of the CO2 and SIF seasonal variation and anomalies over selected sites. Spatial distribution from target observation dataset which consist of 16 point per site using an agile pointing system over megacity is presented together with wind data. The data is available from the GOSAT trend viewer at http://www.eorc.jaxa.jp/GOSAT/CO2_monitor/.
Long-term oceanographic observations in Massachusetts Bay, 1989-2006
Butman, Bradford; Alexander, P. Soupy; Bothner, Michael H.; Borden, Jonathan; Casso, Michael A.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Hastings, Mary E.; Lightsom, Frances L.; Martini, Marinna A.; Montgomery, Ellyn T.; Rendigs, Richard R.; Strahle, William S.
2009-01-01
This data report presents long-term oceanographic observations made in western Massachusetts Bay at long-term site A (LT-A) (42 deg 22.6' N., 70 deg 47.0' W.; nominal water depth 32 meters) from December 1989 through February 2006 and long-term site B (LT-B) (42 deg 9.8' N., 70 deg 38.4' W.; nominal water depth 22 meters) from October 1997 through February 2004 (fig. 1). The observations were collected as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study designed to understand the transport and long-term fate of sediments and associated contaminants in Massachusetts Bay. The observations include time-series measurements of current, temperature, salinity, light transmission, pressure, oxygen, fluorescence, and sediment-trapping rate. About 160 separate mooring or tripod deployments were made on about 90 research cruises to collect these long-term observations. This report presents a description of the 16-year field program and the instrumentation used to make the measurements, an overview of the data set, more than 2,500 pages of statistics and plots that summarize the data, and the digital data in Network Common Data Form (NetCDF) format. This research was conducted by the USGS in cooperation with the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority and the U.S. Coast Guard.
Trends in Mortality of Tuberculosis Patients in the United States: The Long-term Perspective
Barnes, Richard F.W.; Moore, Maria Luisa; Garfein, Richard S.; Brodine, Stephanie; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Rodwell, Timothy C.
2011-01-01
PURPOSE To describe long-term trends in TB mortality and to compare trends estimated from two different sources of public health surveillance data. METHODS Trends and changes in trend were estimated by joinpoint regression. Comparisons between datasets were made by fitting a Poisson regression model. RESULTS Since 1900, TB mortality rates estimated from death certificates have declined steeply, except for a period of no change in the 1980s. This decade had long-term consequences resulting in more TB deaths in later years than would have occurred had there been no flattening of the trend. Recent trends in TB mortality estimated from National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS) data, which record all-cause mortality, differed from trends based on death certificates. In particular, NTSS data showed TB mortality rates flattening since 2002. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of trends in TB mortality vary by data source, and therefore interpretation of the success of control efforts will depend upon the surveillance dataset used. The datasets may be subject to different biases that vary with time. One dataset showed a sustained improvement in the control of TB since the early 1990s while the other indicated that the rate of TB mortality was no longer declining. PMID:21820320
Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk
Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...
Long Term Trend Analysis and Assessment of Water Quality in the Penchala River, Malaysia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chow, M. F.; Haris, H. B.; Mohd Sidek, L. B.
2014-12-01
Rapid urban expansion produces negative impacts on the natural environment, especially river water quality. Studies assessing long term changes of water quality have been recognized as a key tool for understanding ongoing processes in watersheds and for providing an essential background for evaluation of rapid changes within industrialized and populated urban areas. Unfortunately, only limited studies are available for developing countries such as Malaysia. Thus, a long term study was conducted to evaluate water quality trends at Pencala river basin that has undergone extensive land use changes related to industrial, agricultural and urban activities. Fifteen physical and chemical variables were analysed in river water samples collected every month over a period of 13 years, between 1997 and 2009. The trend study was performed using the Mann-Kendall Seasonal test and the Sen's Slope estimator. Results revealed that most water quality parameters showed a downward trend for yearly average concentration. The water quality index (WQI) for Pencala River was improved from Class V to Class IV, according to National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia. BOD, COD, NH3-N and SS show trends toward decreasing concentrations over time. The improvements seen in water quality appear to be the result of improved wastewater treatment and other water quality improvement efforts achieved through government initiative. Continued long-term and high frequency monitoring is necessary to establish plans and policies for effective water resources management.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zeb, Naila; Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Khan, Saud Ahmed; Noreen, Asma; Murtaza, Rabbia
2017-04-01
Air pollution is the expected key environmental issue of Pakistan as it is ranked among top polluted countries in the region. Ongoing rapid economic growth without any adequate measures is leading to worst air quality over time. The study aims to monitor long term atmospheric composition and association of trace gases over Pakistan. Tropospheric concentrations of CO, TOC, NO2 and HCHO derived from multiple satellite instruments are used for study from year 2005 to 2014. The study will provide first database for tropospheric trace gases over Pakistan. Spatio-temporal assessment identified hotspots and possible sources of trace gases over the Pakistan. High concentrations of trace gases are mainly observed over Punjab region, which may be attributed to its metropolitan importance. It is the major agricultural, industrialized and urbanized (nearly 60 % of the Pakistan's population) sector of the country. The expected sources are the agricultural fires, biomass/fossil fuel burning for heating purposes, urbanization, industrialization and meteorological variations. Seasonal variability is observed to explore seasonal patterns over the decade. Well defined seasonal cycles of trace gases are observed over the whole study period. The observed seasonal patterns also showed some noteworthy association among trace gases, which is further explored by different statistical tests. Seasonal Mann Kendall test is applied to test the significance of trend in series whereas correlation is carried out to measure the strength of association among trace gases. Strong correlation is observed for trace gases especially between CO and TOC. Partial Mann Kendall test is used to ideally identify the impact of each covariate on long term trend of CO and TOC by partialling out each correlating trace gas (covariate). It is observed that TOC, NO2 and HCHO has significant impact on long term trend of CO whereas, TOC critically depends on NO2 concentrations for long term increase over the region
Modeling the long-term deposition trends in US over 1990 ...
Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is very important pollutant which at the same time plays a very important role on air and water quality, human health and biological diversity. The atmospheric nitrogen deposition can cause acidification and excess eutrophication, which brings damages to the ecosystems. Quantifying the total deposition is US is still a challenge due to the lack of the long-term observation data for the dry deposition. For this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate deposition changes in US over 1990—2010. The WRF-CMAQ model was run for the continental US using a 36km by 36km horizontal grid spacing, by using a consistent emission inventory recently developed by Jia et al., (2013). We found significant decreasing trend for the total inorganic nitrogen over the East and West coast of California, and increasing trend in the East North Central. The decreased total deposition was controlled by the oxidized nitrogen, as a result of the recent consistent NOx emission reductions due to air regulations such as the Clean Air Act and the NOx State Implementation Plan, consistent with other studies (Li et al., 2016; Schwede and Lear, 2014). The increased inorganic nitrogen deposition was dominated by the reduced nitrogen, which was attributed to the unregulated increasing ammonia (NH3) emissions. The dry and wet inorganic nitrogen deposition trends also have a different spatial patterns: wet deposition was decreasi
Long term trending of engineering data for the Hubble Space Telescope
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cox, Ross M.
1993-01-01
A major goal in spacecraft engineering analysis is the detection of component failures before the fact. Trending is the process of monitoring subsystem states to discern unusual behaviors. This involves reducing vast amounts of data about a component or subsystem into a form that helps humans discern underlying patterns and correlations. A long term trending system has been developed for the Hubble Space Telescope. Besides processing the data for 988 distinct telemetry measurements each day, it produces plots of 477 important parameters for the entire 24 hours. Daily updates to the trend files also produce 339 thirty day trend plots each month. The total system combines command procedures to control the execution of the C-based data processing program, user-written FORTRAN routines, and commercial off-the-shelf plotting software. This paper includes a discussion the performance of the trending system and of its limitations.
Long-term variations and trends in the polar E-region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bjoland, L. M.; Ogawa, Y.; Hall, C.; Rietveld, M.; Løvhaug, U. P.; La Hoz, C.; Miyaoka, H.
2017-10-01
As the EISCAT UHF radar system in Northern Scandinavia started its operations in the early 1980s, the collected data cover about three solar cycles. These long time-series provide us the opportunity to study long-term variations and trends of ionospheric parameters in the high latitude region. In the present study we have used the EISCAT Tromsø UHF data to investigate variations of the Hall conductivity and ion temperatures in the E-region around noon. Both the ion temperature and the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity are confirmed to depend strongly on solar zenith angle. However, the dependence on solar activity seems to be weak. In order to search for trends in these parameters, the ion temperature and peak altitude of the Hall conductivity data were adjusted for their seasonal and solar cycle dependence. A very weak descent (∼0.2 km/ decade) was seen in the peak altitude of the Hall conductivity. The ion temperature at 110 km shows a cooling trend (∼10 K/ decade). However, other parameters than solar zenith angle and solar activity seem to affect the ion temperature at this altitude, and a better understanding of these parameters is necessary to derive a conclusive trend. In this paper, we discuss what may cause the characteristics of the variations in the electric conductivities and ion temperatures in the high latitude region.
Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran
2018-02-01
In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, D.; Shiau, J.
2013-12-01
ABSTRACT BODY: Abstract Surface water quality is an essential issue in water-supply for human uses and sustaining healthy ecosystem of rivers. However, water quality of rivers is easily influenced by anthropogenic activities such as urban development and wastewater disposal. Long-term monitoring of water quality can assess whether water quality of rivers deteriorates or not. Taiwan is a population-dense area and heavily depends on surface water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses. Dong-gang River is one of major resources in southern Taiwan for agricultural requirements. The water-quality data of four monitoring stations of the Dong-gang River for the period of 2000-2012 are selected for trend analysis. The parameters used to characterize water quality of rivers include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), dissolved oxygen (DO), suspended solids (SS), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N). These four water-quality parameters are integrated into an index called river pollution index (RPI) to indicate the pollution level of rivers. Although widely used non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and linear regression exhibit computational efficiency to identify trends of water-quality indices, limitations of such approaches include sensitive to outliers and estimations of conditional mean only. Quantile regression, capable of identifying changes over time of any percentile values, is employed in this study to detect long-term trend of water-quality indices for the Dong-gang River located in southern Taiwan. The results show that Dong-gang River 4 stations from 2000 to 2012 monthly long-term trends in water quality.To analyze s Dong-gang River long-term water quality trends and pollution characteristics. The results showed that the bridge measuring ammonia Long-dong, BOD5 measure in that station on a downward trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, River Pollution Index (RPI) on a downward trend. The results form Chau-Jhou station also ahowed simialar trends .more and more near the
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cropp, E. L.; Hazenberg, P.; Castro, C. L.; Demaria, E. M.
2017-12-01
In the southwestern US, the summertime North American Monsoon (NAM) provides about 60% of the region's annual precipitation. Recent research using high-resolution atmospheric model simulations and retrospective predictions has shown that since the 1950's, and more specifically in the last few decades, the mean daily precipitation in the southwestern U.S. during the NAM has followed a decreasing trend. Furthermore, days with more extreme precipitation have intensified. The current work focuses the impact of these long-term changes on the observed small-scale spatial variability of intense precipitation. Since limited long-term high-resolution observational data exist to support such climatological-induced spatial changes in precipitation frequency and intensity, the current work utilizes observations from the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona. Within this 150 km^2 catchment over 90 rain gauges have been installed since the 1950s, measuring at sub-hourly resolution. We have applied geospatial analyses and the kriging interpolation technique to identify long-term changes in the spatial and temporal correlation and anisotropy of intense precipitation. The observed results will be compared with the previously model simulated results, as well as related to large-scale variations in climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka
2013-10-01
Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the
Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka
2013-01-01
Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the
Long-term trends from ecosystem research at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest
John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Christopher Eagar; Gene E. Likens; Thomas G. Siccama; Chris E. Johnson; Timothy J. Fahey; Steven P. Hamburg; Richard T. Holmes; Amey S. Bailey; Donald C. Buso
2007-01-01
Summarizes 52 years of collaborative, long-term research conducted at the Hubbard Brook (NH) Experimental Forest on ecosystem response to disturbances such as air pollution, climate change, forest disturbance, and forest management practices. Also provides explanations of some of the trends and lists references from scientific literature for further reading.
Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.
2014-01-01
We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.
Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Norton Henry, Emily; Spence Cheruvelil, Kendra; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.
2014-01-01
We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity. PMID:24788722
Museum Preserved Bivalves as Indicators of Long-term Trends in Methylmercury Concentrations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luengen, A. C.; Foslund, H. M.; Greenfield, B. K.
2015-12-01
Despite the many efforts to reduce mercury concentrations in the environment, there are relatively few datasets on long-term trends in mercury in biota, especially for the bioavailable form, methylmercury (MeHg). This study used museum preserved bivalves (stored in ethanol) to look at MeHg trends in the Asian date mussel Musculista senhousia and the Asian clam Potamocorbula amurensis, collected from San Francisco Bay, California between 1975 and 2012. For each sampling date, 4 to 15 individuals were obtained from museum collections (N = 156 total specimens), freeze-dried, weighed, homogenized, digested, and individually analyzed for MeHg using trace metal clean techniques. The bivalves were also analyzed for δ13C and δ15N to look for changes in food web structure. P. amurensis specimens were only available from 1988 to 2012, and an increase in MeHg was observed during that time. In contrast, M. senhousia specimens were available for the entire 37 year period and exhibited a significant decline in MeHg in the southern reach of the estuary (South Bay). The median MeHg concentration in M. senhousia was highest at 239 ng/g dw in October 1975. That year was the last year of operations for the New Almaden Mercury Mining District, which drained into South Bay. By the 1990s, MeHg concentrations in M. senhousia dropped significantly to a median of 37 ng/g dw. Isotopic δ15N values did not support a hypothesis of reduced trophic position causing the MeHg decline. Over the study duration, δ15N increased in M. senhousia, which we attributed to a baseline shift. We also observed a decline in δ13C since 2000, which may represent a shift in bivalve carbon towards greater utilization of planktonic sources. To validate the use of museum specimens, we ran a preservation study, where we collected fresh bivalves, fixed them in ethanol or formalin, and then transferred them to ethanol for long-term storage. Although MeHg concentrations increased after 1 week, they stabilized over
The exceptional recent warming signal in a long-term central-German observation site
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hoy, Andreas; Schönwiese, Christian-Dietrich
2017-04-01
The long-term temperature measurements of Frankfurt/Main represent a scientifically highly valuable source for investigating climatic changes in central Germany and beyond. Annual data are available since 1758 and daily observations since 1870. The 258 year long annual time series is homogenised and recalculated to the airport location outside of Frankfurt/Main city. In a first step, impacts of site changes and urbanisation effects are discussed comparing the five different inner-city monitoring points and the airport location after WWII. We show that site changes affect both extreme and average temperatures, and that they may be considerable even for small relocations. Urbanisation effects are visible all year long and stronger for minimum than maximum temperatures. Annual temperature observations show slightly decreasing temperatures until the 1840s. This development is then replaced by an increasing trend overlain by decadal-scale and yearly fluctuations. Nevertheless, until the 1980s shifting 30-year-means only fluctuate between 8.54 °C in 1829-1858 and 9.58 °C in 1948-1977. However, recent years more than doubled the 1 K spread between the coldest and warmest period, with an average of 10.82 °C in 1986-2015. In addition, this 30-year period was warmer than any single year before 1990. Record-cold calendar days almost disappeared since 1988, while record-warm calendar days appeared about three times more often than statistically expectable. Strong warming was observed year-round, only September and October showed more moderate trends.
Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laštovička, Jan
2017-04-01
The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.
Botlaguduru, Venkata S V; Kommalapati, Raghava R; Huque, Ziaul
2018-04-19
The Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area of Texas has a history of ozone exceedances and is currently classified under moderate nonattainment status for the 2008 8-hr ozone standard of 75 ppb. The HGB area is characterized by intense solar radiation, high temperature, and humidity, which influence day-to-day variations in ozone concentrations. Long-term air quality trends independent of meteorological influence need to be constructed for ascertaining the effectiveness of air quality management in this area. The Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter technique used to separate different scales of motion in a time series, is applied in the current study for maximum daily 8-hr (MDA8) ozone concentrations at an urban site (EPA AQS Site ID: 48-201-0024, Aldine) in the HGB area. This site located within 10 miles of downtown Houston and the George Bush Intercontinental Airport, was selected for developing long-term meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone trends for the years 1990-2016. Results from this study indicate a consistent decrease in meteorologically independent MDA8 ozone between 2000-2016. This pattern could be partially attributed to a reduction in underlying NO X emissions, particularly that of lowering nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels, and a decrease in the release of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOC). Results also suggest solar radiation to be most strongly correlated to ozone, with temperature being the secondary meteorological control variable. Relative humidity and wind speed have tertiary influence at this site. This study observed that meteorological variability accounts for a high of 61% variability in baseline ozone (low-frequency component, sum of long-term and seasonal components), while 64% of the change in long-term MDA8 ozone post-2000 could be attributed to NO X emissions reduction. Long-term MDA8 ozone trend component was estimated to be decreasing at a linear rate of 0.412 ± 0.007 ppb/yr for the years 2000-2016, and 0.155
Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Salman, Saleem A.; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Al-Abadi, Alaa M.
2017-12-01
The existence of long-term persistence (LTP) in hydro-climatic time series can lead to considerable change in significance of trends. Therefore, past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP became a disputable issue. A study has been conducted to assess the trends in temperature and temperature extremes in Iraq in recent years (1965-2015) using both ordinary Mann-Kendal (MK) test; and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can differentiate the multi-decadal oscillatory variations from secular trends. Trends in annual and seasonal minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and 14 temperature-related extremes were assessed. MK test detected the significant increases in minimum and maximum temperature at all stations, where m-MK test detected at 86% and 80% of all stations, respectively. The temperature in Iraq is increasing 2 to 7 times faster than global temperature rise. The minimum temperature is increasing more (0.48-1.17 °C/decade) than maximum temperature (0.25-1.01 °C/decade). Temperature rise is higher in northern Iraq and in summer. The hot extremes particularly warm nights are increasing all over Iraq at a rate of 2.92-10.69 days/decade, respectively. On the other hand, numbers of cold days are decreasing at some stations at a rate of - 2.65 to - 8.40 days/decade. The use of m-MK test along with MK test confirms the significant increase in temperature and some of the temperature extremes in Iraq. This study suggests that trends in many temperature extremes in the region estimated in previous studies using MK test may be due to natural variability of climate, which empathizes the need for validation of the trends by considering LTP in time series.
Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake—the attribution and processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, Zheng; Dong, Jinwei; Zhou, Yuke; Stoy, Paul C.; Niu, Shuli
2017-01-01
Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.
2018-03-01
Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Champagne, C.; Wang, S.; Liu, J.; Hadwen, T. A.
2017-12-01
Drought is a complex natural disaster, which often emerges slowly, but can occur at various time scales and have impacts that are not well understood. Long term observations of drought intensity and frequency are often quantified from precipitation and temperature based indices or modelled estimates of soil water storage. The maturity of satellite based observations has created the potential to enhance the understanding of drought and drought impacts, particularly in regions where traditional data sets are limited by remoteness or inaccessibility, and where drought processes are not well-quantified by models. Long term global satellite data records now provide observations of key hydrological variables, including evaporation modelled from thermal sensors, soil moisture from microwave sensors, ground water from gravity sensors and vegetation condition that can be modelled from optical sensors. This study examined trends in drought frequency, intensity and duration over diverse ecoregions in Canada, including agricultural, grassland, forested and wetland areas. Trends in drought were obtained from the Canadian Drought Monitor as well as meteorological based indices from weather stations, and evaluated against satellite derived information on evaporative stress (Anderson et al. 2011), soil moisture (Champagne et al. 2015), terrestrial water storage (Wang and Li 2016) and vegetation condition (Davidson et al. 2009). Data sets were evaluated to determine differences in how different sensors characterize the hydrology and impacts of drought events from 2003 to 2016. Preliminary results show how different hydrological observations can provide unique information that can tie causes of drought (water shortages resulting from precipitation, lack of moisture storage or evaporative stress) to impacts (vegetation condition) that hold the potential to improve the understanding and classification of drought events.
Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania
D. D. Davis; R. P. Long
2003-01-01
We examined long-term growth trends of white oak by comparing tree-ring chronologies developed from an old-growth stand, where the average tree age was 222 years, with a second-growth stand where average tree age was 78 years. Evaluation of basal area growth trends suggested that an anomalous decrease in basal area increment trend occurred in both stands during the...
Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.
2016-12-01
This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.
Long-term (10 year) trends in the chemistry of urban streams
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Groffman, P. M.; Band, L. E.; Belt, K. T.; Kaushal, S.; Fisher, G. T.
2010-12-01
Weekly sampling of eight streams in the Baltimore metropolitan area has been carried out since 1998 as part of the NSF funded Baltimore urban Long-Term Ecological Research (BES LTER) project. The BES watersheds include 100% forested and agricultural catchments and developed watersheds ranging from very low-density (<1% impervious surface) suburban watersheds serviced by septic systems to more dense (> 40% impervious surface) urban watersheds. Stream discharge is continuously monitored at these sites by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Stream samples are collected weekly regardless of flow conditions (no bias towards storm versus baseflow) and analyzed for nitrate, total nitrogen (N), phosphate, total phosphorus (P), chloride and sulfate. Ten-year analysis of the BES long-term study sites reveals several interesting spatial and temporal patterns. For N, the highest concentrations were found in the agricultural and suburban watersheds, followed by the urban sites, and finally by the forested site. Organic N was most important as a proportion of total N in the urban and forested sites. Spatial patterns in P were more complex, with urban, suburban and agricultural sites having the highest values. Over the ten year record, many sites showed significant changes in N concentrations, but few sites showed consistent patterns in P. The patterns in N were quite variable however, with some sites showing striking increases, while others showed striking decreases. Most (7 of 8) sites showed a decrease in the proportion of organic N, the trend was significant at 4 of the sites. There were few trends in the proportion of organic P. Discharge was a significant driver of variation in N and P export at some (mostly smaller watersheds) sites, for some solutes, but was not an overwhelmingly important driver of temporal variation. Key factors driving long-term patterns include climate variation and efforts to improve urban stream water quality by municipal authorities.
Nelson, David E; Mowery, Paul; Asman, Kat; Pederson, Linda L; O'Malley, Patrick M; Malarcher, Ann; Maibach, Edward W; Pechacek, Terry F
2008-05-01
We sought to describe long-term adolescent and young adult smoking trends and patterns. We analyzed adolescent data from Monitoring the Future, 1976 to 2005, and young adult (aged 18-24 years) data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1974 to 2005, overall and in subpopulations to identify trends in current cigarette smoking prevalence. Five metapatterns emerged: we found (1) a large increase and subsequent decrease in overall smoking over the past 15 years, (2) a steep decline in smoking among Blacks through the early 1990s, (3) a gender gap reversal among older adolescents and young adults who smoked over the past 15 years, (4) similar trends in smoking for most subgroups since the early 1990s, and (5) a large decline in smoking among young adults with less than a high school education. Long-term patterns for adolescent and young adult cigarette smoking were decidedly nonlinear, and we found evidence of a cohort effect among young adults. Continued strong efforts and a long-term societal commitment to tobacco use prevention are needed, given the unprecedented declines in smoking among most subpopulations since the mid- to late 1990s.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gourdji, S.; Zelaya Martinez, C.; Martinez Valle, A.; Mejia, O.; Laderach, P.; Lobell, D. B.
2013-12-01
Climate variability and change impact farmers at different timescales, but both are of concern for livelihoods and long-term viability of small farms in tropical, rain-fed agricultural systems. This study uses a historical dataset to analyze the impact of 40-year climate trends in Nicaragua on bean production, a staple crop that is an important source of calories and protein in the local diet, particularly in rural areas and in lower income classes. Bean yields are sensitive to rising temperatures, but also frequently limited by seasonal drought and low soil fertility. We use an empirical model to relate department-level yields to spatial variation and inter-annual fluctuations in historical precipitation, temperature and extreme rain events. We then use this model to quantify the impact on yields of long-term observed warming in day and night temperatures, increases in rainfall intensity, longer gaps between rain events, a shorter rainy season and overall drying in certain regions of the country. Preliminary results confirm the negative impacts of warming night temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficits, and longer gaps between rain events on bean yields, although some drying at harvest time has helped to reduce rotting. Across all bean-growing areas, these climate trends have led to a ~10% yield decline per decade relative to a stationary climate and production system, with this decline reaching up to ~20% in the dry northern highlands. In regions that have been particularly impacted by these trends, we look for evidence of farm abandonment, increases in off-farm employment, or on-farm adaptation solutions through crop diversification, use of drought or heat-tolerant seed, and adoption of rainwater harvesting. We will also repeat the modeling exercise for maize, another staple crop providing ~25% of daily calories at the national scale, but which is projected to be more resilient to climate trends.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rinsland, Curtis P.; Chiou, Linda; Goldman, Aaron; Hannigan, James W.
2010-01-01
Solar absorption spectra were recorded for the first time in 5 years with the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at the US National solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in southern Arizona, USA (31.91 N latitude, 111.61 W longitude, 2.09 km altitude). The solar absorption spectra cover 750-1300 and 1850-5000 cm(sup -1) and were recorded on 20 days during March-June 2009. The measurements mark the continuation of a long-term record of atmospheric chemical composition measurements that have been used to quantify seasonal cycles and long-term trends of both tropospheric and stratospheric species from observations that began i 1977. Fits to the measured spectra have been performed, and they indicate the spectra obtained since return to operational status are nearly free of channeling and the instrument line shape function is well reproduced taking into account the measurement parameters. We report updated time series measurements of total columns for six atmospheric species and their analysis for seasonal cycles and long-term trends. An sn example, the time series fit shows a decrease in the annual increase rate i Montreal-Protocol-regulated chlorofluorocarbon CCL2F2 from 1.51 plus or minus 0.38% yr(sup -1) at the beginning of the time span to -1.54 plus or minus 1.28 yr(sup -1) at the end of the time span, 1 sigma, and hence provides evidence for the impact of those regulations on the trend.
Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi
2017-04-01
Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological
NAEP Trends: Main NAEP vs. Long-Term Trend
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Beaton, Albert E.; Chromy, James R.
2010-01-01
The objectives of this research are to (a) compare the trend lines after some adjustments for level and scale only and determine if and how they differ; (b) describe the methodology of each assessment and identify similarities and differences; and (c) attempt to explain any observed differences based on comparable subsets or on special analysis.…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Allen, Nancy L.; McClellan, Catherine A.; Stoeckel, Joan J.
2005-01-01
This report provides an update to the technical analysis procedures documenting the 1996 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) as presented in "The NAEP 1996 Technical Report" (Allen, Carlson, and Zelenak, 1999). It describes how the 1999 long-term trend data were incorporated into the trend analyses. Since no national main…
Long-term trends in height growth of jack pine in North Central Ontario
J.C.G. Goelz; T.E. Burk
1998-01-01
Although most investigations of long-term growth trends of trees involve description of radial growth of trees, investigation of height growth of dominant and codominant trees also warrants attention for two significant reasons -- the dependent variable is largely independent of stand density and it represents an index of stand productivity. Residuals from a height...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, C.; Ryu, Y.; Fang, H.
2016-12-01
Proper usage of global satellite LAI products requires comprehensive evaluation. To address this issue, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Product Validation (LPV) subgroup proposed a four-stage validation hierarchy. During the past decade, great efforts have been made following this validation framework, mainly focused on absolute magnitude, seasonal trajectory, and spatial pattern of those global satellite LAI products. However, interannual variability and trends of global satellite LAI products have been investigated marginally. Targeting on this gap, we made an intercomparison between seven global satellite LAI datasets, including four short-term ones: MODIS C5, MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and three long-term products ones: LAI3g, GLASS, and GLOBMAP. We calculated global annual LAI time series for each dataset, among which we found substantial differences. During the overlapped period (2003 - 2011), MODIS C5, GLASS and GLOBMAP have positive correlation (r > 0.6) between each other, while MODIS C6, GEOV1, MERIS, and LAI3g are highly consistent (r > 0.7) in interannual variations. However, the previous three datasets show negative trends, all of which use MODIS C5 reflectance data, whereas the latter four show positive trends, using MODIS C6, SPOT/VGT, ENVISAT/MERIS, and NOAA/AVHRR, respectively. During the pre-MODIS era (1982 - 1999), the three AVHRR-based datasets (LAI3g, GLASS and GLOBMAP) agree well (r > 0.7), yet all of them show oscillation related with NOAA platform changes. In addition, both GLASS and GLOBMAP show clear cut-points around 2000 when they move from AVHRR to MODIS. Such inconsistency is also visible for GEOV1, which uses SPOT-4 and SPOT-5 before and after 2002. We further investigate the map-to-map deviations among these products. This study highlights that continuous sensor calibration and cross calibration are essential to obtain reliable global LAI time series.
Difficulties in tracking the long-term global trend in tropical forest area.
Grainger, Alan
2008-01-15
The long-term trend in tropical forest area receives less scrutiny than the tropical deforestation rate. We show that constructing a reliable trend is difficult and evidence for decline is unclear, within the limits of errors involved in making global estimates. A time series for all tropical forest area, using data from Forest Resources Assessments (FRAs) of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, is dominated by three successively corrected declining trends. Inconsistencies between these trends raise questions about their reliability, especially because differences seem to result as much from errors as from changes in statistical design and use of new data. A second time series for tropical moist forest area shows no apparent decline. The latter may be masked by the errors involved, but a "forest return" effect may also be operating, in which forest regeneration in some areas offsets deforestation (but not biodiversity loss) elsewhere. A better monitoring program is needed to give a more reliable trend. Scientists who use FRA data should check how the accuracy of their findings depends on errors in the data.
Implications of Version 8 TOMS and SBUV Data for Long-Term Trend Analysis
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frith, Stacey M.
2004-01-01
Total ozone data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and profile/total ozone data from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV; SBW/2) series of instruments have recently been reprocessed using new retrieval algorithms (referred to as Version 8 for both) and updated calibrations. In this paper, we incorporate the Version 8 data into a TOMS/SBW merged total ozone data set and an S B W merged profile ozone data set. The Total Merged Ozone Data (Total MOD) combines data from multiple TOMS and SBW instruments to form an internally consistent global data set with virtually complete time coverage from October 1978 through December 2003. Calibration differences between instruments are accounted for using external adjustments based on instrument intercomparisons during overlap periods. Previous results showed errors due to aerosol loading and sea glint are significantly reduced in the V8 TOMS retrievals. Using SBW as a transfer standard, calibration differences between V8 Nimbus 7 and Earth Probe TOMS data are approx. 1.3%, suggesting small errors in calibration remain. We will present updated total ozone long-term trends based on the Version 8 data. The Profile Merged Ozone Data (Profile MOD) data set is constructed using data from the SBUV series of instruments. In previous versions, SAGE data were used to establish the long-term external calibration of the combined data set. The SBW Version 8 we assess the V8 profile data through comparisons with SAGE and between SBW instruments in overlap periods. We then construct a consistently-calibrated long term time series. Updated zonal mean trends as a function of altitude and season from the new profile data set will be shown, and uncertainties in determining the best long-term calibration will be discussed.
Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake — the attribution and processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fu, Zheng
2017-04-01
Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.
Estimating long-term multivariate progression from short-term data.
Donohue, Michael C; Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Le Goff, Mélanie; Thomas, Ronald G; Raman, Rema; Gamst, Anthony C; Beckett, Laurel A; Jack, Clifford R; Weiner, Michael W; Dartigues, Jean-François; Aisen, Paul S
2014-10-01
Diseases that progress slowly are often studied by observing cohorts at different stages of disease for short periods of time. The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) follows elders with various degrees of cognitive impairment, from normal to impaired. The study includes a rich panel of novel cognitive tests, biomarkers, and brain images collected every 6 months for as long as 6 years. The relative timing of the observations with respect to disease pathology is unknown. We propose a general semiparametric model and iterative estimation procedure to estimate simultaneously the pathological timing and long-term growth curves. The resulting estimates of long-term progression are fine-tuned using cognitive trajectories derived from the long-term "Personnes Agées Quid" study. We demonstrate with simulations that the method can recover long-term disease trends from short-term observations. The method also estimates temporal ordering of individuals with respect to disease pathology, providing subject-specific prognostic estimates of the time until onset of symptoms. When the method is applied to ADNI data, the estimated growth curves are in general agreement with prevailing theories of the Alzheimer's disease cascade. Other data sets with common outcome measures can be combined using the proposed algorithm. Software to fit the model and reproduce results with the statistical software R is available as the grace package. ADNI data can be downloaded from the Laboratory of NeuroImaging. Copyright © 2014 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-term observations of the background aerosol at Cabauw, The Netherlands.
Mamali, D; Mikkilä, J; Henzing, B; Spoor, R; Ehn, M; Petäjä, T; Russchenberg, H; Biskos, G
2018-06-01
Long-term measurements of PM 2.5 mass concentrations and aerosol particle size distributions from 2008 to 2015, as well as hygroscopicity measurements conducted over one year (2008-2009) at Cabauw, The Netherlands, are compiled here in order to provide a comprehensive dataset for understanding the trends and annual variabilities of the atmospheric aerosol in the region. PM 2.5 concentrations have a mean value of 14.4μgm -3 with standard deviation 2.1μgm -3 , and exhibit an overall decreasing trend of -0.74μgm -3 year -1 . The highest values are observed in winter and spring and are associated with a shallower boundary layer and lower precipitation, respectively, compared to the rest of the seasons. Number concentrations of particles smaller than 500nm have a mean of 9.2×10 3 particles cm -3 and standard deviation 4.9×10 3 particles cm -3 , exhibiting an increasing trend between 2008 and 2011 and a decreasing trend from 2013 to 2015. The particle number concentrations exhibit highest values in spring and summer (despite the increased precipitation) due to the high occurrence of nucleation-mode particles, which most likely are formed elsewhere and are transported to the observation station. Particle hygroscopicity measurements show that, independently of the air mass origin, the particles are mostly externally mixed with the more hydrophobic mode having a mean hygroscopic parameter κ of 0.1 while for the more hydrophilic mode κ is 0.35. The hygroscopicity of the smaller particles investigated in this work (i.e., particles having diameters of 35nm) appears to increase during the course of the nucleation events, reflecting a change in the chemical composition of the particles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Long-Term Trends in Hematological and Nutritional Status After Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.
Kim, Ji-Hyun; Bae, You-Jin; Jun, Kyong-Hwa; Chin, Hyung-Min
2017-08-01
This study investigated long-term trends in hematological and nutritional parameters after gastrectomy for gastric cancer and evaluated the influence of the reconstruction type on these trends. The medical records of 558 patients who underwent curative gastrectomy with standard lymph node dissection for stage I gastric cancer between January 2006 and December 2013 were reviewed. The hematological and nutritional parameters evaluated included hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B 12 , total protein, albumin, total cholesterol, triglyceride, and calcium. The patients were followed up for 6 months postoperatively and then annually until death, cancer recurrence, or follow-up loss. In the long term, ferritin and triglyceride gradually decreased after gastrectomy, while the other parameters decreased slightly or were stable. In the comparisons according to reconstruction type, the Roux-en-Y group had the lowest levels of hemoglobin, ferritin, vitamin B12, total protein, albumin, and total cholesterol beginning 6 months postoperatively compared with the Billroth I and II groups. However, only ferritin and vitamin B 12 had significant differences in the 5-year cumulative incidences of deficiency/reduction according to the reconstruction type, whereas albumin, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and calcium did not. Although malabsorption and malnutrition are common in patients after a gastrectomy, most nutritional parameters were stable or decreased slightly in the long-term and were not markedly influenced by the reconstruction type or extent of gastrectomy. Therefore, for more accurate nutritional assessment after gastrectomy, multidirectional monitoring should be considered rather than simply measuring biochemical parameters.
Cohen, M A
1998-02-01
A number of key trends are emerging in long-term care related to financing, new models of service delivery, and shifts in consumer expectations and preferences. Taken together, changes occurring in these areas point to a rapidly transforming long-term care landscape. Financing responsibility is shifting away from the federal government to states, individuals, and their families; providers are integrating and managing acute and long-term care services and adding new services to the continuum of care; and consumers are thinking more seriously about how to plan and pay for their future care needs, as well as how to independently navigate the long-term care system.
Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends
Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.
2015-01-01
We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)
Using long-term lysimeter data to analyze hydrological trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Puetz, Thomas; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Roesseler, Anne-Kathrin; Vereecken, Harry
2014-05-01
Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the terrestrial water cycle. Recent studies based on analysis of experimental and observations-based data have shown that over the last decades the magnitude of evapotranspiration (both potential and actual) has been affected by global climate change although the sign and size of the change in ET differ strongly between regions around the globe, as well as between datasets (e.g. Teuling et al. 2009, Jung et al. 2010, Sheffield et al. 2012). Basically, there are two approaches that are available to measure actual evapotranspiration in situ (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010): the measurement from micrometeorological approaches (in particular the Eddy Covariance method) and the determination of evapotranspiration by measuring the components of the soil water balance. Evett et al. (2012) showed that Eddy Covariance measurements of actual evapotranspiration obtained in irrigated cotton fields was 31 to 45% lower than estimates obtained from soil water balance measurements using lysimeters. Forcing the closure of the energy balance with more data than typically available at EC stations, the difference was still about 17%. Despite the fact that lysimeter systems, especially the weighing based systems, are ideal tools to determine actual evapotranspiration no global assessment has been made of available data at present that might be valuable to assess the impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration. A screening of literature showed that many data are either not reported or made available through research reports rather than peer reviewed literature. Typically lysimeter studies have been used for well-designed experimental studies for the assessment of flow and transport processes in cropped systems that were limited in time. Still at present, we have lysimeter systems operational that have long term time series available on soil hydrological fluxes. Recently, a few studies were reported that analyzed long term series of
Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.
Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W
1986-11-28
The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.
Shackman, Gene; Yu, Chengxuan; Edmunds, Lynn S; Clarke, Lewis; Sekhobo, Jackson P
2015-03-01
We examined the correlation between trends in meals provided through food pantries and long-term unemployment from 2002 through 2012. The New York State Hunger Prevention and Nutrition Assistance Program provided about 192 million meals through food pantries in 2012-double the number before the Great Recession. Annual food pantry use was strongly correlated with long-term unemployment and remained on an upward trend from 2006 through 2012, even after the Great Recession had ended. These findings suggest that efforts to reduce hunger and food insecurity should continue to be priorities.
Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.
2018-03-30
Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun
2016-05-01
Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.
2015-01-01
During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the
Solar cycle and long term variations of mesospheric ice layers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lübken, Franz-Josef; Berger, Uwe; Kiliani, Johannes; Baumgarten, Gerd; Fiedler, Jens; Gerding, Michael
2010-05-01
Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes, frequently called `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) or `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC), are considered to be sensitive indicators of long term changes in the middle atmosphere. We present a summary of long term observations from the ground and from satellites and compare with results from the LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model). LIMA nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and thereby the morphology of ice clouds. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this give s negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. As will be shown, these trends originate in the stratosphere. Solar cycle effects are expected in ice layers due to variations in background temperatures and water paper. We will present results from LIMA regarding solar cycle variations and compare with NLC observations at our lidar stations in Kühlungsborn (54°N) and ALOMAR (69°N), and also with satellite measurements.
Long-term variations of polar mesospheric summer echoes observed at Andøya (69°N)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Latteck, R.; Bremer, J.
2017-10-01
Polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) are strong radar signals received at very high radar frequencies at altitudes between about 80 and 95 km at polar latitudes during summer. PMSE are caused by inhomogeneities in the electron density of the radar Bragg scale within the plasma of the cold summer mesopause region in the presence of negatively charged ice particles. Therefore, the occurrence of PMSE depends on the ionisation due to solar wave radiation and precipitating high energetic particle fluxes but also contains information about mesospheric temperature and water vapour content. Long-time observations of these echoes can be used to conclude on long-term changes of these atmospheric parameters. Continuous observations of PMSE have been carried out on the North-Norwegian island And/oya (69.3°N, 16.0°E) using the ALOMAR SOUSY radar (1994-1997), the ALWIN VHF radar (1999-2008) and the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System MAARSY (since 2011). Since both the ALWIN radar and MAARSY are calibrated systems, the received echo strength of PMSE from 17 years of mesospheric observations (1999-2016) could be converted into absolute signal power. This data series could be extended to the years 1994 until 1997 on the basis of signal-to-noise ratio values derived during the years between 1994 and 2008. Seasonal mean values of PMSE occurrence for the time period from 1 June until 31 July have been derived and the resulting 23 years long data set was analyzed in dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity as well as analyzed for long-term trends. The PMSE occurrence rate is positively correlated with the solar Lyman α radiation (however low significance level) and the geomagnetic Ap index. After elimination of the solar and geomagnetically induced parts using different regression analysis methods, the PMSE data show a significant (χ = 92%-97%) positive trend during the observation period 1994 until 2016.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke
2018-03-01
A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.
Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke
2018-03-01
A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.
Long-term trend and variability of atmospheric PM10 concentration in the Po Valley
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bigi, A.; Ghermandi, G.
2014-05-01
The limits to atmospheric pollutant concentration set by the European Commission provide a challenging target for the municipalities in the Po Valley, because of the characteristic climatic conditions and high population density of this region. In order to assess climatology and trends in the concentration of atmospheric particles in the Po Valley, a data set of PM10 data from 41 sites across the Po Valley have been analysed, including both traffic and background sites (either urban, suburban or rural). Of these 41 sites, 18 with 10 yr or longer record have been analysed for long-term trend in deseasonalized monthly means, in annual quantiles and in monthly frequency distribution. A widespread significant decreasing trend has been observed at most sites, up to a few percent per year, by a generalized least squares and Theil-Sen method. All 41 sites have been tested for significant weekly periodicity by Kruskal-Wallis test for mean anomalies and by Wilcoxon test for weekend effect magnitude. A significant weekly periodicity has been observed for most PM10 series, particularly in summer and ascribed mainly to anthropic particulate emissions. A cluster analysis has been applied in order to highlight stations sharing similar pollution conditions over the reference period. Five clusters have been found, two encompassing the metropolitan areas of Turin and Milan and their respective nearby sites and the other three clusters gathering northeast, northwest and central Po Valley sites respectively. Finally, the observed trends in atmospheric PM10 have been compared to trends in provincial emissions of particulates and PM precursors, and analysed along with data on vehicular fleet age, composition and fuel sales. A significant basin-wide drop in emissions occurred for gaseous pollutants, contrarily to emissions of PM10 and PM2.5, whose drop was low and restricted to a few provinces. It is not clear whether the decrease for only gaseous emissions is sufficient to explain the
Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.
2013-01-01
This study investigates the long-term trends in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. The seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test was performed on monthly precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient data from 1950 to 2009 obtained from 62 urban watersheds covering 21 major urban centers in the United States. The results indicate that only five out of 21 urban centers in the United States showed an uptrend in precipitation. Twelve urban centers showed an uptrend in runoff coefficient. However, six urban centers did not show any trend in runoff coefficient, and three urban centers showed a significant downtrend. The highest rate of change in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient was observed in the Houston urban watershed. Based on the results obtained, we also attributed plausible causes for the trends. Our analysis indicated that while a human only influence is observed in most of the urban watersheds, a combined climate and human influence is observed in the central United States.
McGrath, John; Selten, Jean-Paul; Chant, David
2002-04-01
Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland, Australia n=6630; The Netherlands n=24,474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration. Males and females were assessed separately. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Yang, Y.; Smith, S.; Rasch, P. J.
2017-12-01
The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades. As one of the important short-lived climate forcers, aerosols affect the Arctic radiative budget directly by interfering radiation and indirectly by modifying clouds. Light-absorbing particles (e.g., black carbon) in snow/ice can reduce the surface albedo. The direct radiative impact of aerosols on the Arctic climate can be either warming or cooling, depending on their composition and location, which can further alter the poleward heat transport. Anthropogenic emissions, especially, BC and SO2, have changed drastically in low/mid-latitude source regions in the past few decades. Arctic surface observations at some locations show that BC and sulfate aerosols had a decreasing trend in the recent decades. In order to understand the impact of long-term emission changes on aerosols and their radiative effects, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) equipped with an explicit BC and sulfur source-tagging technique to quantify the source-receptor relationships and decadal trends of Arctic sulfate and BC and to identify variations in their atmospheric transport pathways from lower latitudes. The simulation was conducted for 36 years (1979-2014) with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. To minimize potential biases in modeled large-scale circulations, wind fields in the simulation are nudged toward an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, while atmospheric constituents including water vapor, clouds, and aerosols are allowed to evolve according to the model physics. Both anthropogenic and open fire emissions came from the newly released CMIP6 datasets, which show strong regional trends in BC and SO2 emissions during the simulation time period. Results show that emissions from East Asia and South Asia together have the largest contributions to Arctic sulfate and BC concentrations in the upper troposphere, which have an increasing trend. The strong decrease in emissions from Europe, Russia and
Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.
2015-12-01
Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.
Long-term phenotypic evolution of bacteria.
Plata, Germán; Henry, Christopher S; Vitkup, Dennis
2015-01-15
For many decades comparative analyses of protein sequences and structures have been used to investigate fundamental principles of molecular evolution. In contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term evolution of species' phenotypic and genetic properties. This represents an important gap in our understanding of evolution, as exactly these proprieties play key roles in natural selection and adaptation to diverse environments. Here we perform a comparative analysis of bacterial growth and gene deletion phenotypes using hundreds of genome-scale metabolic models. Overall, bacterial phenotypic evolution can be described by a two-stage process with a rapid initial phenotypic diversification followed by a slow long-term exponential divergence. The observed average divergence trend, with approximately similar fractions of phenotypic properties changing per unit time, continues for billions of years. We experimentally confirm the predicted divergence trend using the phenotypic profiles of 40 diverse bacterial species across more than 60 growth conditions. Our analysis suggests that, at long evolutionary distances, gene essentiality is significantly more conserved than the ability to utilize different nutrients, while synthetic lethality is significantly less conserved. We also find that although a rapid phenotypic evolution is sometimes observed within the same species, a transition from high to low phenotypic similarity occurs primarily at the genus level.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Strategies to mitigate agricultural runoff must consider long-term changes in climate. We investigated temperature, precipitation and runoff trends over roughly four decades of monitoring an agricultural watershed in east central Pennsylvania (1968-2012). Temperature data confirmed significant expan...
Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake
Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.
2016-01-01
1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.
Mediterranean sea water budget long-term trend inferred from salinity observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Skliris, N.; Zika, J. D.; Herold, L.; Josey, S. A.; Marsh, R.
2018-01-01
Changes in the Mediterranean water cycle since 1950 are investigated using salinity and reanalysis based air-sea freshwater flux datasets. Salinity observations indicate a strong basin-scale multi-decadal salinification, particularly in the intermediate and deep layers. Evaporation, precipitation and river runoff variations are all shown to contribute to a very strong increase in net evaporation of order 20-30%. While large temporal uncertainties and discrepancies are found between E-P multi-decadal trend patterns in the reanalysis datasets, a more robust and spatially coherent structure of multi-decadal change is obtained for the salinity field. Salinity change implies an increase in net evaporation of 8 to 12% over 1950-2010, which is considerably lower than that suggested by air-sea freshwater flux products, but still largely exceeding estimates of global water cycle amplification. A new method based on water mass transformation theory is used to link changes in net evaporation over the Mediterranean Sea with changes in the volumetric distribution of salinity. The water mass transformation distribution in salinity coordinates suggests that the Mediterranean basin salinification is driven by changes in the regional water cycle rather than changes in salt transports at the straits.
Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš
2018-05-15
Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wilson, Robert M.
1998-01-01
During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i
McDonald, Brian C; Goldstein, Allen H; Harley, Robert A
2015-04-21
A fuel-based approach is used to assess long-term trends (1970-2010) in mobile source emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosol (OA, including both primary emissions and secondary formation). The main focus of this analysis is the Los Angeles Basin, where a long record of measurements is available to infer trends in ambient concentrations of BC and organic carbon (OC), with OC used here as a proxy for OA. Mobile source emissions and ambient concentrations have decreased similarly, reflecting the importance of on- and off-road engines as sources of BC and OA in urban areas. In 1970, the on-road sector accounted for ∼90% of total mobile source emissions of BC and OA (primary + secondary). Over time, as on-road engine emissions have been controlled, the relative importance of off-road sources has grown. By 2010, off-road engines were estimated to account for 37 ± 20% and 45 ± 16% of total mobile source contributions to BC and OA, respectively, in the Los Angeles area. This study highlights both the success of efforts to control on-road emission sources, and the importance of considering off-road engine and other VOC source contributions when assessing long-term emission and ambient air quality trends.
Long-term trend of Pacific South Equatorial Current bifurcation over 1950-2010
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhai, Fangguo; Hu, Dunxin; Wang, Qingye; Wang, Fujun
2014-05-01
This study investigates the long-term change of the Pacific South Equatorial Current (SEC) bifurcation latitude (SBL) over 1950-2010 with Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 2.2.4. Results indicate that the SBL averaged within upper 200 m has migrated southward at 0.020°S yr-1, comparable in magnitude with -0.024°N yr-1 for the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude (NBL). The SEC transport into the Coral Sea has increased. Due to the southward SBL migration, most of the increased SEC water was transported equatorward, contributing to the Equatorial Undercurrent intensification. Experiments with a nonlinear 1.5 layer reduced gravity model indicate that the southward migration of SBL is mainly caused by positive Ekman flux divergence trend in the eastern tropical South Pacific, while that of NBL is caused by negative Ekman flux divergence trend in the western tropical North Pacific.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trettin, C.; Dai, Z.; Amatya, D. M.
2014-12-01
Long-term climatic and hydrologic observations on the Santee Experimental Forest in the lower coastal plain of South Carolina were used to estimate long-term changes in hydrology and forest carbon dynamics for a pair of first-order watersheds. Over 70 years of climate data indicated that warming in this forest area in the last decades was faster than the global mean; 35+ years of hydrologic records showed that forest ecosystem succession three years following Hurricane Hugo caused a substantial change in the ratio of runoff to precipitation. The change in this relationship between the paired watersheds was attributed to altered evapotranspiration processes caused by greater abundance of pine in the treatment watershed and regeneration of the mixed hardwood-pine forest on the reference watershed. The long-term records and anomalous observations are highly valuable for reliable calibration and validation of hydrological and biogeochemical models capturing the effects of climate variability. We applied the hydrological model MIKESHE that showed that runoff and water table level are sensitive to global warming, and that the sustained warming trends can be expected to decrease stream discharge and lower the mean water table depth. The spatially-explicit biogeochemical model Forest-DNDC, validated using biomass measurements from the watersheds, was used to assess carbon dynamics in response to high resolution hydrologic observation data and simulation results. The simulations showed that the long-term spatiotemporal carbon dynamics, including biomass and fluxes of soil carbon dioxide and methane were highly regulated by disturbance regimes, climatic conditions and water table depth. The utility of linked-modeling framework demonstrated here to assess biogeochemical responses at the watershed scale suggests applications for assessing the consequences of climate change within an urbanizing forested landscape. The approach may also be applicable for validating large
Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tang, Yuk S.; Braban, Christine F.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Dore, Anthony J.; Simmons, Ivan; van Dijk, Netty; Poskitt, Janet; Dos Santos Pereira, Gloria; Keenan, Patrick O.; Conolly, Christopher; Vincent, Keith; Smith, Rognvald I.; Heal, Mathew R.; Sutton, Mark A.
2018-01-01
A unique long-term dataset from the UK National Ammonia Monitoring Network (NAMN) is used here to assess spatial, seasonal and long-term variability in atmospheric ammonia (NH3: 1998-2014) and particulate ammonium (NH4+: 1999-2014) across the UK. Extensive spatial heterogeneity in NH3 concentrations is observed, with lowest annual mean concentrations at remote sites (< 0.2 µg m-3) and highest in the areas with intensive agriculture (up to 22 µg m-3), while NH4+ concentrations show less spatial variability (e.g. range of 0.14 to 1.8 µg m-3 annual mean in 2005). Temporally, NH3 concentrations are influenced by environmental conditions and local emission sources. In particular, peak NH3 concentrations are observed in summer at background sites (defined by 5 km grid average NH3 emissions < 1 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and in areas dominated by sheep farming, driven by increased volatilization of NH3 in warmer summer temperatures. In areas where cattle, pig and poultry farming is dominant, the largest NH3 concentrations are in spring and autumn, matching periods of manure application to fields. By contrast, peak concentrations of NH4+ aerosol occur in spring, associated with long-range transboundary sources. An estimated decrease in NH3 emissions by 16 % between 1998 and 2014 was reported by the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Annually averaged NH3 data from NAMN sites operational over the same period (n = 59) show an indicative downward trend, although the reduction in NH3 concentrations is smaller and non-significant: Mann-Kendall (MK), -6.3 %; linear regression (LR), -3.1 %. In areas dominated by pig and poultry farming, a significant reduction in NH3 concentrations between 1998 and 2014 (MK: -22 %; LR: -21 %, annually averaged NH3) is consistent with, but not as large as the decrease in estimated NH3 emissions from this sector over the same period (-39 %). By contrast, in cattle-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant) in NH3
Observing climate change trends in ocean biogeochemistry: when and where.
Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Lampitt, Richard
2016-04-01
Understanding the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the marine biosphere is a high priority. Climate change-driven trends need to be accurately assessed and detected in a timely manner. As part of the effort towards detection of long-term trends, a network of ocean observatories and time series stations provide high quality data for a number of key parameters, such as pH, oxygen concentration or primary production (PP). Here, we use an ensemble of global coupled climate models to assess the temporal and spatial scales over which observations of eight biogeochemically relevant variables must be made to robustly detect a long-term trend. We find that, as a global average, continuous time series are required for between 14 (pH) and 32 (PP) years to distinguish a climate change trend from natural variability. Regional differences are extensive, with low latitudes and the Arctic generally needing shorter time series (<~30 years) to detect trends than other areas. In addition, we quantify the 'footprint' of existing and planned time series stations, that is the area over which a station is representative of a broader region. Footprints are generally largest for pH and sea surface temperature, but nevertheless the existing network of observatories only represents 9-15% of the global ocean surface. Our results present a quantitative framework for assessing the adequacy of current and future ocean observing networks for detection and monitoring of climate change-driven responses in the marine ecosystem. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Long-term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea.
Andersen, Jesper H; Carstensen, Jacob; Conley, Daniel J; Dromph, Karsten; Fleming-Lehtinen, Vivi; Gustafsson, Bo G; Josefson, Alf B; Norkko, Alf; Villnäs, Anna; Murray, Ciarán
2017-02-01
Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as 'affected by eutrophication'. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50-100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long-term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112-year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid-1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long-term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large-scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem-based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. © 2015 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent c...
LaMontagne, Anthony D.; Oakes, J. Michael; Lopez Turley, Ruth N.
2004-01-01
Objectives. We assessed long-term trends in ethylene oxide (EtO) worker exposures for the purposes of exposure surveillance and evaluation of the impacts of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) 1984 and 1988 EtO standards. Methods. We obtained exposure data from a large commercial vendor and processor of EtO passive dosimeters. Personal samples (87 582 workshift [8-hr] and 46 097 short-term [15-min] samples) from 2265 US hospitals were analyzed for time trends from 1984 through 2001 and compared with OSHA enforcement data. Results. Exposures declined steadily for the first several years after the OSHA standards were set. Workshift exposures continued to taper off and have remained low and constant through 2001. However, since 1996, the probability of exceeding the short-term excursion limit has increased. This trend coincides with a decline in enforcement of the EtO standard. Conclusions. Results indicate the need for renewed intervention efforts to preserve gains made following the passage and implementation of the 1984 and 1988 EtO standards. PMID:15333324
He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan
2018-01-01
Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004–2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution. PMID:29466354
Duan, Weili; He, Bin; Chen, Yaning; Zou, Shan; Wang, Yi; Nover, Daniel; Chen, Wen; Yang, Guishan
2018-01-01
Comprehensive understanding of the long-term trends and seasonality of water quality is important for controlling water pollution. This study focuses on spatio-temporal distributions, long-term trends, and seasonality of water quality in the Yangtze River basin using a combination of the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and time-series decomposition. The used weekly water quality data were from 17 environmental stations for the period January 2004 to December 2015. Results show gradual improvement in water quality during this period in the Yangtze River basin and greater improvement in the Uppermost Yangtze River basin. The larger cities, with high GDP and population density, experienced relatively higher pollution levels due to discharge of industrial and household wastewater. There are higher pollution levels in Xiang and Gan River basins, as indicated by higher NH4-N and CODMn concentrations measured at the stations within these basins. Significant trends in water quality were identified for the 2004-2015 period. Operations of the three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) enhanced pH fluctuations and possibly attenuated CODMn, and NH4-N transportation. Finally, seasonal cycles of varying strength were detected for time-series of pollutants in river discharge. Seasonal patterns in pH indicate that maxima appear in winter, and minima in summer, with the opposite true for CODMn. Accurate understanding of long-term trends and seasonality are necessary goals of water quality monitoring system efforts and the analysis methods described here provide essential information for effectively controlling water pollution.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.; Gilge, S.; Scheel, H.-E.; Steinbacher, M.; Fröhlich, M.
2014-05-01
Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northern midlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NOx, an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.
Long-Term Economic and Labor Forecast Trends for Washington. 1996.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lefberg, Irv; And Others
This publication provides actual historical and long-term forecast data on labor force, total wage and salary employment, industry employment, and personal income for the state of Washington. The data are based upon the Washington Office of Financial Management long-term population forecast. Chapter 1 presents long-term forecasts of Washington…
J.C.G. Goelz; Thomas E. Burk; Shepard M. Zedaker
1999-01-01
Cross-sectional area growth and height growth of Fraser fir and red spruce trees growing in Virginia and North Carolina were analyzed to identify possible long-term growth trends. Cross-sectional area growth provided no evidence of growth decline. The individual discs were classified according to parameter estimates of the growth trend equation. The predominant pattern...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krzyscin, J. W.
2003-04-01
A method of reconstruction of the UV variations for periods when UV-B measurements were not carried out is proposed. The reconstruction is based on observations of total (Sun+sky) radiation by a pyranometer, Dobson total ozone, sunshine duriation from the Campbel Stokes heliograph, and atmospheric column water content taken from NCEP/NOAA reanalysis. Modeled all-sky erythemaly weighted daily dose is calculated as a product of the cloud reduction factor (CRF) over UV range and clear-sky dose from a radiative transfer model. CRF over UV range is estimated from measured CRF for total solar radiation and the statistical dependence relating CRF over UV with that over whole solar spectrum. The measured daily UV doses and daily sum of total radiation taken at Belsk, Poland (52N, 21E) for the period 1976-2001 have been used to construct the regressions for various solar zenith angles. The time series of monthly means from the modeled daily UV doses follows the observed monthly means supporting the possibility of reconstruction of the UV time series for other periods. An inspection of the long-term stability of total radiation measurements is necessary to discuss trends in the reconstructed time series. We examine the data homogeneity analyzing the ratio of the observed to modeled total radiation for fully clear sky days that are selected from the daily values of sunshine duration measured by the Campbel-Stokes heliograph. Combining reconstructed and observed monthly means of the UV doses we found a positive trend in the UV radiation in the period 1980-1995 and almost constant UV level for other periods (early 60s up to 1980, and 1995-2001). The trend pattern suggests dominating role of the long-term total ozone forcing on the UV level with a small impact of the long-term changes in the cloud/aerosol properties.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.
2018-03-01
Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.
Anthropogenic emissions from a variety of sectors including mobile sources have decreased substantially over the past decades despite continued growth in population and economic activity. In this study, we analyze 1990-2010 trends in emission inventories, ambient observations and...
Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor
2018-03-01
The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Lei; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Marais, Eloïse A.; Sheng, Jianxiong; Hu, Lu; Abad, Gonzalo González; Chance, Kelly
2017-07-01
Satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns provide top-down information on emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We examine the long-term trends in HCHO columns observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument from 2005 to 2014 across North America. Biogenic isoprene is the dominant source of HCHO, and its emission has a large temperature dependence. After correcting for this dependence, we find a general pattern of increases in much of North America but decreases in the southeastern U.S. Over the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria industrial area, HCHO columns decreased by 2.2% a-1 from 2005 to 2014, consistent with trends in emissions of anthropogenic VOCs. Over the Cold Lake Oil Sands in the southern Alberta in Canada, HCHO columns increased by 3.8% a-1, consistent with the increase in crude oil production there. HCHO variability in the northwestern U.S. and Midwest could be related to afforestation and corn silage production. Although NO
Wang, Xuefeng; Wang, Lifei; Jia, Xiaoping; Jackson, Donald A
2017-09-01
Long-term spatiotemporal trends and health risk assessment of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea were investigated in order to help improve the quality and safety control and sustainable aquaculture for mollusks in China. Cultured oysters (Crassostrea rivularis) collected from the waters of 23 bays, harbors, and estuaries along the coast of northern South China Sea from 1989 to 2012 were examined for spatial patterns and long-term temporal trends of oyster arsenic levels. Single-factor index and health risk assessment were used to quantify arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption. Overall, arsenic was detected in 97.4% of the oyster samples, and oyster arsenic levels were non-detectable-2.51 mg/kg with an average of 0.63 ± 0.54 mg/kg. Oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea showed an overall decline from 1989 to 2012, remained relatively low since 2005, and slightly increased after 2007. Oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters were much higher with more variation than in Guangxi and Hainan coastal waters, and the long-term trends of oyster arsenic levels in Guangdong coastal waters dominated the overall trends of oyster arsenic levels in the coastal waters of northern South China Sea. Within Guangdong Province, oyster arsenic levels were highest in east Guangdong coastal waters, followed by the Pearl River estuary and west Guangdong coastal waters. Single-factor index ranged between 0.27 and 0.97, and average health risk coefficient was 3.85 × 10 -5 , both suggesting that oyster arsenic levels in northern South China Sea are within the safe range for human consumption. However, long-term attention should be given to seafood market monitoring in China and the risk of arsenic exposure to human health through oyster consumption.
A Comparison of Observed and Simulated 1990 – 2010 U.S. Ozone Trends
In this study, we analyze ozone concentrations from long-term (1990 – 2010) WRF-CMAQ simulations driven by year specific meteorology and emissions. These simulations allow us to compare observed and simulated ozone trends in order to evaluate the model’s ability to pr...
Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.
García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C
2014-03-01
Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into
Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena
1994-01-01
Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.
Kaufmann, Rüdiger
2002-02-01
By comparing short-term (6 years) observations with long-term (>100 years) community changes reconstructed from the chronosequence along a glacier foreland, I show that the colonisation of recently deglaciated terrain by invertebrates may constitute a process reacting sensitively to temperature fluctuations. Early colonising stages (<30 years old) currently develop faster, and intermediate successional stages (30-50 years old) slower, than would be indicated by the long-term chronosequence pattern. These differences between the chronosequence approach and direct observation can be explained by a simple model relating the rate of community evolution to the temperature record. It would mean that an increase of 0.6°C in summer temperatures approximately doubled the speed of initial colonisation, whereas later successional stages were less sensitive to climate change. The present situation appears to result from unusually warm summers around 1950 and a warm period accelerating glacier retreat since 1980. In contrast to the long-term trend, all except the youngest communities have suffered a loss in diversity in recent years.
Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří
2017-01-01
European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.
Long-term variation of total ozone
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kane, R. P.
1988-03-01
The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932 1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.
Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.
2010-08-01
As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fuss, Colin B.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.
2015-11-01
Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984-2011) and stream water (1982-2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA. We found slowed losses of base cations from soil and decreased mobilization of dissolved inorganic aluminum. Stream water pH at the watershed outlet increased at a rate of 0.01 units yr-1, and the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) gained 0.88 µeq L-1 yr-1. Dissolved organic carbon generally decreased in stream water and soil solutions, contrary to trends observed at many North American and European sites. We compared whole-year hydrochemical trends with those during snowmelt, which is the highest-flow and lowest ANC period of the year, indicative of episodic acidification. Stream water during snowmelt had long-term trends of increasing ANC and pH at a rate very similar to the whole-year record, with closely related steady decreases in sulfate. A more rapid decline in stream water nitrate during snowmelt compared with the whole-year trend may be due, in part, to the marked decrease in atmospheric nitrate deposition during the last decade. The similarity between the whole-year trends and those of the snowmelt period is an important finding that demonstrates a consistency between recovery from chronic acidification during base flow and abatement of snowmelt acidification.
Kawano-Dourado, Leticia; Baldi, Bruno G; Kay, Fernando U; Dias, Olivia M; Gripp, Thais E H; Gomes, Paula S; Fuller, Ricardo; Caleiro, Maria T C; Kairalla, Ronaldo A; Carvalho, Carlos R R
2015-01-01
Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is highly prevalent in patients with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). However, little is known about the long-term progression of ILD in MCTD. The aims of this study were to describe pulmonary function test (PFT) and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) results in long-term MCTD patients, to measure changes in PFT and HRCT results over a 10-year period, and to ascertain correlations in functional and imaging data. In this retrospective cohort study, comparison between baseline and follow-up PFT and HRCT data was performed for 39 unselected consecutive MCTD patients. At baseline, 51% of the patients had abnormal PFTs. Forced vital capacity (FVC) was slightly reduced at baseline (77% of predicted), but remained stable after 10 years. A relative decrease of 15% in the diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) was detected (from 84% to 71% of predicted, p<0.001). The median lower lobes ILD-HRCT score progressed from 7.5% at baseline to 11.2% at follow-up (p=0.02), and findings of traction bronchiolectasis and honeycombing increased (p<0.05). A moderate negative correlation was observed between functional parameters and quantification of image findings. Functional and radiologic alterations suggestive of ILD in long-term MCTD patients are prevalent, mild, and progressed slightly over time. The most sensitive parameters for detecting subtle progression of ILD in MCTD patients are trends in DLCO, quantification of lower-lobes disease by HRCT (lower-lobes %ILD-HRCT score), and qualitative analysis of HRCT imaging.
Long-term observation of aerosol cloud relationships in the Mid-Atlantic region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, S.; Joseph, E.; Min, Q.; Yin, B.
2013-12-01
Long-term ground-based observations of aerosol and cloud properties derived from measurements of Multifilter Rotating Shadow Band Radiometer and microwave radiometer at an atmospheric measurement field station in the Baltimore-Washington corridor operated by Howard University are used to examine the temporal variation of aerosol and cloud properties and moreover aerosol indirect effect on clouds. Through statistical analysis of five years (from 2006 to 2010) of these observations, the proportion of polluted cases is found larger in 2006 and 2007 and the proportion of optically thick clouds cases is also larger in 2006 and 2007 than that in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Both the mean aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud optical depth (COD) are observed decreasing from 2006 to 2010 but there is no obvious trend observed on cloud liquid water path (LWP). Because of the limit of AOD retrievals under cloudy conditions surface measurements of fine particle particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) were used for assessing aerosol indirect effect. A positive relationship between LWP and cloud droplets effective radius (Re) and a negative relationship between PM2.5 and Re are observed based on a stringent case selection method which is used to reduce the uncertainties from retrieval and meteorological impacts. The total 5 years summer time observations are segregated according to the value of PM2.5. Examination of distributions of COD, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), cloud droplets effective radius and LWP under polluted and pristine conditions further confirm that the high aerosol loading decreases cloud droplets effective radius and increases cloud optical depth.
Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...
2018-03-05
Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.
Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less
Modeling the Impacts of Long-Term Warming Trends on Gross Primary Productivity Across North America
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mekonnen, Z. A.; Grant, R. F.
2014-12-01
There is evidence of warming over recent decades in most regions of North America (NA) that affects ecosystem productivity and the past decade has been the warmest since instrumental records of global surface temperatures began. In this study, we examined the spatial and temporal variability and trends of warming across NA using climate data from the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 2010 with a 3-hourly time-step and 0.250 x 0.250 spatial resolution as part of the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). A comprehensive mathematical process model, ecosys was used to simulate impacts of this variability in warming on gross primary productivity (GPP). In a test of model results, annual GPP modeled for pixels which corresponded to the locations of 25 eddy covariance towers correlated well (R2=0.76) with annual GPP derived from the flux towers in 2005. At the continental scale long-term (2000 - 2010) annual average modeled GPP for NA correlated well (geographically weighed regression R2 = 0.8) with MODIS GPP, demonstrating close similarities in spatial patterns. Results from the NARR indicated that most areas of NA, particularly high latitude regions, have experienced warming but changes in precipitation vary spatially over the last three decades. GPP modeled in most areas with lower mean annual air temperature (Ta), such as those in boreal climate zones, increased due to early spring and late autumn warming observed in NARR. However modeled GPP declined in most southwestern regions of NA, due to water stress from rising Ta and declining precipitation. Overall, GPP modeled across NA had a positive trend of +0.025 P g C yr-1 with a range of -1.16 to 0.87 P g C yr-1 from the long-term mean. Interannual variability of GPP was the greatest in southwest of US and part of the Great Plains, which could be as a result of frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation' (ENSO) events that led to major droughts.
Rakesh Minocha; Swathi A. Turlapati; Stephanie Long; William H. McDowell; Subhash C. Minocha
2015-01-01
We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements...
Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars
2016-03-11
Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures
Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio
2017-09-01
Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com
Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Xiaohan; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Gao, Guang
2017-01-01
We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu. PMID:28074871
Long-term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, M.; von Storch, H.
2017-12-01
For constructing empirical downscaling models and projecting possible future states of eddy activities in the South China Sea (SCS), long-term statistical characteristics of the SCS eddy are needed. We use a daily global eddy-resolving model product named STORM covering the period of 1950-2010. This simulation has employed the MPI-OM model with a mean horizontal resolution of 10km and been driven by the NCEP reanalysis-1 data set. An eddy detection and tracking algorithm operating on the gridded sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) fields was developed. A set of parameters for the criteria in the SCS are determined through sensitivity tests. Our method detected more than 6000 eddy tracks in the South China Sea. For all of them, eddy diameters, track length, eddy intensity, eddy lifetime and eddy frequency were determined. The long-term trends and variability of those properties also has been derived. Most of the eddies propagate westward. Nearly 100 eddies travel longer than 1000km, and over 800 eddies have a lifespan of more than 2 months. Furthermore, for building the statistical empirical model, the relationship between the SCS eddy statistics and the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has been investigated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gosz, J.
2001-12-01
The network dedicated to Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) in the United States has grown to 24 sites since it was formed in 1980. Long-term research and monitoring are performed on parameters thatare basic to all ecosystems and are required to understand patterns, processes, and relationship to change. Collectively, the sites in the LTER Network provide opportunities to contrast marine, coastal, and continental regions, the full range of climatic gradients existing in North America, and aquatic and terrestrial habitats in a range of ecosystem types. The combination of common core areas and long-term research and monitoring in many habitats have allowed unprecedented abilities to understand and compare complex temporal and spatial dynamics associated with issues like climate change, effects of pollution, biodiversity and landuse. For example, McMurdo Dry Valley in the Antarctic has demonstrated an increase in glacier mass since 1993 which coincides with a period of cooler than normal summers and more than average snowfall. In contrast, the Bonanza Creek and Toolik Lake sites in Alaska have recorded a warming period unprecedented in the past 200 years. Nitrogen deposition effects have been identified through long-term watershed studies on biogeochemical cycles, especially at Coweeta Hydrological Lab, Harvard Forest, and the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest. In aquatic systems, such as the Northern Temperate Lakes site, long-term data revealed time lags in effects of invaders and disturbance on lake communities. Biological recovery from an effect such as lake acidification was shown to lag behind chemical recovery. The long-term changes documented over 2 decades have been instrumental in influencing management practices in many of the LTER areas. In Puerto Rico, the Luquillo LTER demonstrated that dams obstruct migrations of fish and freshwater shrimp and water abstraction at low flows can completely obliterate downstream migration of juveniles and damage
Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bounoui, Lahouari
2012-01-01
Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.
Long term (1987-2012) trends in water chemistry of acid sensitive Swedish lakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Futter, Martyn; Valinia, Salar; Fölster, Jens
2014-05-01
Acidification of surface waters is a serious concern in Sweden. During the 1970s and 1980s, many surface waters in Sweden were acidified by long-range pollution. Legislated emissions reductions have led to the recovery of many water bodies but today, there are concerns about the possibility of re-acidification. Sweden is committed to a goal of natural acidification only (i.e. no anthropogenic acidification). Here, we present long term (1987-2012) trends in strong acid anion, base cation, organic carbon and alkalinity measurements. Lakes are defined as acidified in Sweden if pH is more than 0.4 units less than a reference (1860) pH estimated using MAGIC, a widely used process-based model of acidification. Using this criteria, many acid sensitive Swedish lakes are still acidified. A changing climate and more intensive forest harvesting may further delay the recovery from acidification. Average measured alkalinity in the 38 lakes presented here was <= 0.02 mekv/l between 2000-2012. Strong acid anion concentrations declined, primarily as a result of declines in sulfate. Chloride is now the dominant anion in many of these lakes. Base cations concentrations have declined less rapidly, leading to an increase in charge balance ANC. This increase in charge balance ANC has not been matched by an increase in measured alkalinity. Total organic carbon concentrations have increased significantly in many of these lakes, to the point where modeled organic acidity is now approximately equal to inorganic acidity. While the results presented here conform to acidification theory, they illustrate the value of long-term monitoring for assessing the effects of pollutant reduction measures, identifying new threats to water quality and corroborating model results. Most importantly, the long-term monitoring results presented here can be an important tool for informing environmental policy.
Tropospheric temperature climatology and trends observed over the Middle East
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Basha, Ghouse; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.
2015-10-01
In this study, we report for the first time, the upper air temperature climatology, and trends over the Middle East, which seem to be significantly affected by the changes associated with hot summer and low precipitation. Long term (1985-2012) radiosonde data from 12 stations are used to derive the mean temperature climatology and vertical trends. The study was performed by analyzing the data at different latitudes. The vertical profiles of air temperature show distinct behavior in terms of vertical and seasonal variability at different latitudes. The seasonal cycle of temperature at the 100 hPa, however, shows an opposite pattern compared to the 200 hPa levels. The temperature at 100 hPa shows a maximum during winter and minimum in summer. Spectral analysis shows that the annual cycle is dominant in comparison with the semiannual cycle. The time-series of temperature data was analyzed using the Bayesian change point analysis and cumulative sum method to investigate the changes in temperature trends. Temperature shows a clear change point during the year 1999 at all stations. Further, Modified Mann-Kendall test was applied to study the vertical trend, and analysis shows statistically significant lower tropospheric warming and cooling in upper troposphere after the year 1999. In general, the magnitude of the trend decreases with altitude in the troposphere. In all the latitude bands in lower troposphere, significant warming is observed, whereas at higher altitudes cooling is noticed based on 28 years temperature observations over the Middle East.
Ray B. Bryant; Haiming Lu; Kyle R. Elkin; Anthony R. Buda; Amy S. Collick; Gordon J. Folmar; Peter J. Kleinman
2016-01-01
Climate change has emerged as a key issue facing agriculture and water resources in the US. Long-term (1968-2012) temperature, precipitation and streamflow data from a small (7.3 km2) watershed in east-central Pennsylvania was used to examine climatic and hydrologic trends in the context of recent climate change. Annual mean temperatures increased 0.38°C per decade,...
Wang, Chuanfei; Wang, Xiaoping; Gong, Ping; Yao, Tandong
2018-05-15
Long-term monitoring in remote regions is essential for revealing pollution trends at the global scale but relevant studies remain limited. In the present study, a six-year continuous monitoring of atmospheric persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was carried out at Lulang in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). Average concentrations of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and PAHs were 13.5, 8.9, 41.7, 1.8pg/m 3 and 6.2ng/m 3 , respectively. Obvious seasonality was found for all the target compounds. HCHs, DDTs and PCBs had their highest concentrations in summer (monsoon season) and lowest in winter, which is consistent with the fluctuation of the Indian monsoon. Meanwhile, HCB and 5-6-ring PAHs showed opposite variations, possibly induced by local sources and the westerly flow in winter. Declining trends were observed for most of the chemicals, except o,p'-DDE, HCB and PCBs. A declining trend in the α/γ-HCH ratio indicated a shift from technical HCHs to lindane. An increasing trend in the o,p'/p,p'-DDT ratio suggested a likely shift from technical DDTs to dicofol. For PAHs, the contribution from high-temperature combustion has increased recently. The half-lives of α-HCH, γ-HCH, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDT were 6.1, 108, 77.6 and 14.2years, respectively. The half-lives of γ-HCH, o,p'-DDT and p,p'-DDT were higher than those in the Arctic, indicating these compounds will persist in the TP for a longer period. The temporal trends in atmospheric POPs were possibly induced by emissions in India and likely driven by wind speed in Lulang. This study contributes toward a better understanding of the behavior and transport of POPs in the TP region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Parrish, D. D.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L.; Shindell, D. T.; Staehelin, J.; Derwent, R.; Cooper, O. R.; Tanimoto, H.; Volz-Thomas, A.;
2014-01-01
Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.
Long - term trends of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic 1992-2016
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vana, M.
2017-12-01
The regular measurement of tropospheric ozone in the Czech Republic began within the National Air Pollution Monitoring Network operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute in 1992. The long-term trend assessment study is based on the data from the stations with the longest homogeneous data series: Košetice and Svratouch (EMEP stations), Praha-Libuš (suburban area of the capital Prague) and Churáňov (mountain site). Non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was used for trend evaluation. Significant downward trend was found both at EMEP stations and mountain station during the whole period, after 2000 the significance was lower. Warm period (April-September) displays similar patterns as whole year at regional and mountain level. On contrary, only slightly declining tendency was found in the cold period (October-March). Suburban station is characterized by not significant increasing tendency. The difference between mean annual concentrations at regional and suburban stations dropped from 20 mg.m-3 in the 90´ to 12 mg.m-3 in last five years. The annual variation is characterized by maxima in the end of spring. In June and sometimes also in July there is a decrease caused by the onset of the so-called "continental monsoon", which brings increased cloud cover and a drop in solar radiation. We then register a second maximum in July and August. According to the current Czech air quality legislation, the target value for protection of human health is exceeded when 8-hour running mean is higher than 120 mg.m-3 25times in average for 3 years. The limit was exceeded at all stations during the period 1992-2010, but at the same time, significant drop of high ozone episodes was found during this period. After 2010 the declining trend was stopped and 3-year mean declined under the target limit at all station types. Assessment of the ozone impacts on ecosystems using the AOT40 index suggests that critical level was exceeded for long periods not only in the regional areas but
An exotic long-term pattern in stock price dynamics.
Wei, Jianrong; Huang, Jiping
2012-01-01
To accurately predict the movement of stock prices is always of both academic importance and practical value. So far, a lot of research has been reported to help understand the behavior of stock prices. However, some of the existing theories tend to render us the belief that the time series of stock prices are unpredictable on a long-term timescale. The question arises whether the long-term predictability exists in stock price dynamics. In this work, we analyze the price reversals in the US stock market and the Chinese stock market on the basis of a renormalization method. The price reversals are divided into two types: retracements (the downward trends after upward trends) and rebounds (the upward trends after downward trends), of which the intensities are described by dimensionless quantities, R(t) and R(b), respectively. We reveal that for both mature and emerging markets, the distribution of either retracements R(t) or rebounds R(b) shows two characteristic values, 0.335 and 0.665, both of which are robust over the long term. The methodology presented here provides a way to quantify the stock price reversals. Our findings strongly support the existence of the long-term predictability in stock price dynamics, and may offer a hint on how to predict the long-term movement of stock prices.
Shi, Yusheng; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Zhao, Aimei; Li, Zhengqiang; Gu, Xingfa
2018-08-01
Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) poses a potential threat to human health, including premature mortality under long-term exposure. Based on a long-term series of high-resolution (0.01°×0.01°) satellite-retrieved PM 2.5 concentrations, this study estimated the premature mortality attributable to PM 2.5 in South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) from 1999 to 2014. Then, the long-term trends and spatial characteristics of PM 2.5 -induced premature deaths (1999-2014) were analyzed using trend analyses and standard deviation ellipses. Results showed the estimated number of PM 2.5 -induced average annual premature deaths in SSEA was 1,447,000. The numbers increased from 1,179,400 in 1999 to 1,724,900 in 2014, with a growth rate of 38% and net increase of 545,500. Stroke and ischemic heart disease were the two principal contributors, accounting for 39% and 35% of the total, respectively. High values were concentrated in North India, Bangladesh, East Pakistan, and some metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia. An estimated 991,600 deaths in India was quantified (i.e., ~69% of the total premature deaths in SSEA). The long-term trends (1999-2014) of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality exhibited consistent incremental tendencies in all countries except Sri Lanka. The findings of this study suggest that strict controls of PM 2.5 concentrations in SSEA are urgently required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Long term trends in sewage abatement and water quality in the Hudson-Raritan Estuary
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Brosnan, T.M.; O`Shea, M.L.
1995-12-31
Long-term trends in dissolved oxygen (DO) and coliform bacteria concentrations are used to evaluate the impact of 70 years of sewage abatement and treatment in the Hudson-Raritan Estuary near New York City (NYC). Regional construction of wastewater treatment plants since the 1920`s has reduced discharges of untreated sewage into the estuary from approximately 47 M{sup 3}/S in 1936 to less than 0.1 M{sup 3}/S by 1994. From at least 1922 through the early 1960s, average summer DO percent saturation in the Hudson River varied between 35--50% in surface waters and 25--40% in bottom waters. Beginning in the late 1970s, DOmore » concentrations increased through the 1980s and especially into the 1990s, coinciding with the secondary treatment upgrade of the 7.4 M3/s North River plant in the spring of 1991. Average summer percent saturation in the early 1 990s exceeded 80% in surface waters and 60% in bottom waters. In addition, summer DO minima increased from less than 1.5 mg/L in the early 1970s, to greater than 3.0 mg/L in the 1990s, and the duration of hypoxia during summer months has been reduced. While this general trend has been observed throughout the estuary, some areas have displayed recent declines in DO, possibly due to increasing eutrophication. Total coliforms also display strong decreasing trends from the 1960s into the 1990s, with declines attributed to plant construction and expansion, and improved operation of the sewer system. Metal loadings have also decreased significantly. Signs of improved ecosystem quality include reopened beaches and shellfish beds, re-infestation of woodpilings by marine wood-borers, and the resurgence of wading birds in several areas of the estuary.« less
Long-term observations of Boreal Toads at an ARMI apex site
Corn, Paul Stephen; Muths, Erin L.; Pilliod, David S.
2011-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey’s Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) is a national project with goals to monitor the status and trends of amphibians, conduct research on causes of declines, and provide information and support to management agencies for conservation of amphibian populations. ARMI activities are organized around extensive inventories and place-based monitoring (such as collaboration with the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network), and intensive population studies and research at selected locations (apex sites). One such site is an oxbow pond on the Buffalo Fork near the Black Rock Ranger Station east of Grand Teton National Park. We have been conducting mark-recapture of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) at Black Rock since 2002. In concert with studies of other toad populations in the Rocky Mountains, we have documented a high rate of incidence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and a negative rate of growth of the toad population, but not the population crash or extinction observed in other populations with high prevalence of Bd. Long-term observations at other ARMI apex sites have proven invaluable for studying effects of climate change on amphibian behavior, and the Black Rock site has been upgraded with onsite recording of weather data and auditory monitoring of other amphibian species. Continued research at Black Rock will be critical for understanding the interrelated effects of climate and disease on amphibians in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.
The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. WRF-CMAQ simulations over the continental Uni...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gruszczynska, M.; Rosat, S.; Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.
2017-12-01
In this study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension MSSA (Multichannel SSA) were used to estimate long-term trend and gravimetric factor at the Chandler wobble frequency from superconducting gravimeter (SG) records. We have used data from seven stations located worldwide and contributing to the International Geodynamics and Earth Tides Service (IGETS). The timespan ranged from 15 to 19 years. Before applying SSA and MSSA, we had removed local tides, atmospheric (ECMWF data), hydrological (MERRA2 products) loadings and non-tidal ocean loading (ECCO2 products) effects. In the first part of analysis, we used the SSA approach in order to estimate the long-term trends from SG observations. We use the technique based on the classical Karhunen-Loève spectral decomposition of time series into long-term trend, oscillations and noise. In the second part, we present the determination of common time-varying pole tide (annual and Chandler wobble) to estimate gravimetric factor from SG time series using the MSSA approach. The presented method takes advantage over traditional methods like Least Squares Estimation by determining common modes of variability which reflect common geophysical field. We adopted a 6-year lag-window as the optimal length to extract common seasonal signals and the Chandler components of the Earth polar motion. The signals characterized by annual and Chandler wobble account for approximately 62% of the total variance of residual SG data. Then, we estimated the amplitude factors and phase lags of Chandler wobble with respect to the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service) polar motion observations. The resulting gravimetric factors at the Chandler Wobble period are finally compared with previously estimates. A robust estimate of the gravimetric Earth response to the Chandlerian component of the polar motion is required to better constrain the mantle anelasticity at this frequency and hence the
Van Buskirk, R. D.; Kantner, C. L. S.; Gerke, B. F.; ...
2014-11-14
We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declinedmore » faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alconcel, L. N. S.; Fox, P.; Brown, P.; Oddy, T. M.; Lucek, E. L.; Carr, C. M.
2014-07-01
Over the course of more than 10 years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the spacecraft 1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT per year in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alconcel, L. N. S.; Fox, P.; Brown, P.; Oddy, T. M.; Lucek, E. L.; Carr, C. M.
2014-01-01
Over the course of more than ten years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the Spacecraft1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the relative accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT yr-1 in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.
Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael; Boys, Brian L.
2014-01-01
Background: More than a decade of satellite observations offers global information about the trend and magnitude of human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Objective: In this study, we developed improved global exposure estimates of ambient PM2.5 mass and trend using PM2.5 concentrations inferred from multiple satellite instruments. Methods: We combined three satellite-derived PM2.5 sources to produce global PM2.5 estimates at about 10 km × 10 km from 1998 through 2012. For each source, we related total column retrievals of aerosol optical depth to near-ground PM2.5 using the GEOS–Chem chemical transport model to represent local aerosol optical properties and vertical profiles. We collected 210 global ground-based PM2.5 observations from the literature to evaluate our satellite-based estimates with values measured in areas other than North America and Europe. Results: We estimated that global population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations increased 0.55 μg/m3/year (95% CI: 0.43, 0.67) (2.1%/year; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) from 1998 through 2012. Increasing PM2.5 in some developing regions drove this global change, despite decreasing PM2.5 in some developed regions. The estimated proportion of the population of East Asia living above the World Health Organization (WHO) Interim Target-1 of 35 μg/m3 increased from 51% in 1998–2000 to 70% in 2010–2012. In contrast, the North American proportion above the WHO Air Quality Guideline of 10 μg/m3 fell from 62% in 1998–2000 to 19% in 2010–2012. We found significant agreement between satellite-derived estimates and ground-based measurements outside North America and Europe (r = 0.81; n = 210; slope = 0.68). The low bias in satellite-derived estimates suggests that true global concentrations could be even greater. Conclusions: Satellite observations provide insight into global long-term changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations. Satellite-derived estimates and ground-based PM2.5 observations from this study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.
In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the
Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Limsakul, Atsamon; Singhruck, Patama
2016-03-01
Based on quality-controlled daily station data, long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation indices during 1955-2014 were examined for Thailand. An analysis showed that while precipitation events have been less frequent across most of Thailand, they have become more intense. Moreover, the indices measuring the magnitude of intense precipitation events indicate a trend toward wetter conditions, with heavy precipitation contributing a greater fraction to annual totals. One consequence of this change is the increased frequency and severity of flash floods as recently evidenced in many parts of Thailand. On interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, significant relationships between variability of precipitation indices and the indices for the state of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were found. These results provide additional evidence that large-scale climate phenomena in the Pacific Ocean are remote drivers of variability in Thailand's total and extreme precipitation. Thailand tended to have greater amounts of precipitation and more extreme events during La Niña years and the PDO cool phase, and vice versa during El Niño years and the PDO warm phase. Another noteworthy finding is that in 2011 Thailand experienced extensive flooding in a year characterized by exceptionally extreme precipitation events. Our results are consistent with the regional studies for the Asia-Pacific Network. However, this study provides a more detailed picture of coherent trends at a station scale and documents changes that have occurred in the twenty-first century, both of which help to inform decisions concerning effective management strategies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.
2016-11-01
Detection of long-term changes in climate variables over large spatial scales is a very important prerequisite to the development of effective mitigation and adaptation measures for the future potential climate change and for developing strategies for future hydrologic balance analyses under changing climate. Moreover, there is a need for effective approaches of providing information about these changes to decision makers, water managers and stakeholders to aid in efficient implementation of the developed strategies. This study involves computation, mapping and analyses of long-term (1968-2013) county-specific trends in annual, growing-season (1st May-30th September) and monthly air temperatures [(maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and average (Tavg)], daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) over the USA Great Plains region using datasets from over 800 weather station sites. Positive trends in annual Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were observed in 71%, 89%, 85%, 31%, 61%, 38% and 66% of the counties in the region, respectively, whereas these proportions were 48%, 89%, 62%, 20%, 57%, 28%, and 63%, respectively, for the growing-season averages of the same variables. On a regional average basis, the positive trends in growing-season Tavg, Tmax and Tmin, DTR, precipitation, ETo and AI were 0.18 °C decade-1, 0.19 °C decade-1, 0.17 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 1.12 mm yr-1, 0.4 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively, and the negative trends were 0.21 °C decade-1, 0.06 °C decade-1, 0.09 °C decade-1, 0.22 °C decade-1, 1.16 mm yr-1, 0.76 mm yr-1 and 0.02 decade-1, respectively. The temporal trends were highly variable in space and were appropriately represented using monthly, annual and growing-season maps developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The long-term and spatial and temporal information and data for a large region provided in this study can be
Analysis of long-term groundwater storage trends in the Wairau aquifer, New Zealand
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wöhling, Thomas; Gosses, Moritz; Davidson, Peter; Wilson, Scott
2016-04-01
of flow below a critical threshold in a given year have increased in recent years. To link the river flow record to large-scale climatic drivers, we analysed the precipitation record from several rainfall stations in the Wairau catchment as well as daily time series of precipitation data from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) virtual climate station (VCS) network. The areal annual precipitation totals calculated from the VCS station data show a clear decline of precipitation since 1960. Shorter precipitation records from weather stations in the hilly ranges of the Wairau catchment seem to confirm the trend, while data from stations in the valleys or the Wairau Plains doesn't support the trend. The decline in areal precipitation and the corresponding increase in low flow periods of the Wairau river flows have a strong correspondence to the long-term trend in Wairau aquifer water levels, but other factors such as changes in the river bed morphology could also contribute. The reason for the decline of precipitation in the Wairau catchment is not yet known.
The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Carey, Sean K.; McNamara, James P.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Soulsby, Chris
2017-04-01
Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are prerequisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies, predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs.
Observed long-term greening of alpine vegetation—a case study in the French Alps
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carlson, Bradley Z.; Corona, Monica C.; Dentant, Cédric; Bonet, Richard; Thuiller, Wilfried; Choler, Philippe
2017-11-01
We combined imagery from multiple sources (MODIS, Landsat-5, 7, 8) with land cover data to test for long-term (1984-2015) greening or browning trends of vegetation in a temperate alpine area, the Ecrins National Park, in the context of recent climate change and domestic grazing practices. We showed that over half (56%) of the Ecrins National Park displayed significant increases in peak normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) over the last 16 years (2000-2015). Importantly, the highest proportional increases in NDVImax occurred in rocky habitats at high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.). While spatial agreement in the direction of change in NDVImax as detected by MODIS and Landsat was high (76% overlap), correlations between log-response ratio values were of moderate strength (approx. 0.3). In the context of above treeline habitats, we found that proportional increases in NDVImax were higher between 1984 and 2000 than between 2000 and 2015, suggesting a slowing of greening dynamics during the recent decade. The timing of accelerated greening prior to 2000 coincided with a pronounced increase in the amount of snow-free growing degree-days that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s. In the case of grasslands and low-shrub habitats, we did not find evidence for a negative effect of grazing on greening trends, possibly due to the low grazing intensity typically found in the study area. We propose that the emergence of a longer and warmer growing season enabled high-elevation plant communities to produce more biomass, and also allowed for plant colonization of habitats previously characterized by long-lasting snow cover. Increasing plant productivity in an alpine context has potential implications for biodiversity trajectories and for ecosystem services in mountain landscapes. The presented evidence for long-term greening trends in a representative region of the European Alps provides the basis for further research on mechanisms of greening in alpine landscapes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chiu, C. M.; Hamlet, A. F.
2014-12-01
Climate change is likely to impact the Great Lakes region and Midwest region via changes in Great Lakes water levels, agricultural impacts, river flooding, urban stormwater impacts, drought, water temperature, and impacts to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Self-consistent and temporally homogeneous long-term data sets of precipitation and temperature over the entire Great Lakes region and Midwest regions are needed to provide inputs to hydrologic models, assess historical trends in hydroclimatic variables, and downscale global and regional-scale climate models. To support these needs a new hybrid gridded meteorological forcing dataset at 1/16 degree resolution based on data from co-op station records, the U. S Historical Climatology Network (HCN) , the Historical Canadian Climate Database (HCCD), and Precipitation Regression on Independent Slopes Method (PRISM) has been assembled over the Great Lakes and Midwest region from 1915-2012 at daily time step. These data were then used as inputs to the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model, implemented over the Midwest and Great Lakes region at 1/16 degree resolution, to produce simulated hydrologic variables that are amenable to long-term trend analysis. Trends in precipitation and temperature from the new meteorological driving data sets, as well as simulated hydrometeorological variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, runoff, and evaporation over the 20th century are presented and discussed.
Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö
2017-04-01
We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.
Tropospheric observations of CFC-114 and CFC-114a with a focus on long-term trends and emissions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Laube, Johannes C.; Hanif, Norfazrin Mohd; Martinerie, Patricia; Gallacher, Eileen; Fraser, Paul J.; Langenfelds, Ray; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Schwander, Jakob; Witrant, Emmanuel; Wang, Jia-Lin; Ou-Yang, Chang-Feng; Gooch, Lauren J.; Reeves, Claire E.; Sturges, William T.; Oram, David E.
2016-12-01
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are ozone-depleting substances as well as strong greenhouse gases, and the control of their production and use under the Montreal Protocol has had demonstrable benefits to both mitigation of increasing surface UV radiation and climate forcing. A global ban on consumption came into force in 2010, but there is evidence of continuing emissions of certain CFCs from a range of sources. One compound has received little attention in the literature, namely CFC-114 (C2Cl2F4). Of particular interest here is the differentiation between CFC-114 (CClF2CClF2) and its asymmetric isomeric form CFC-114a (CF3CCl2F) as atmospheric long-term measurements in the peer-reviewed literature to date have been assumed to represent the sum of both isomers with a time-invariant isomeric speciation. Here we report the first long-term measurements of the two isomeric forms separately, and find that they have different origins and trends in the atmosphere. Air samples collected at Cape Grim (41° S), Australia, during atmospheric background conditions since 1978, combined with samples collected from deep polar snow (firn) enable us to obtain a near-complete record of both gases since their initial production and release in the 1940s. Both isomers were present in the unpolluted atmosphere in comparably small amounts before 1960. The mixing ratio of CFC-114 doubled from 7.9 to 14.8 parts per trillion (ppt) between the start of the Cape Grim record in 1978 and the end of our record in 2014, while over the same time CFC-114a trebled from 0.35 to 1.03 ppt. Mixing ratios of both isomers are slowly decreasing by the end of this period. This is consistent with measurements of recent aircraft-based samples showing no significant interhemispheric mixing ratio gradient. We also find that the fraction of CFC-114a mixing ratio relative to that of CFC-114 increased from 4.2 to 6.9 % over the 37-year period. This contradicts the current tacit assumption used in international climate
Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane
2014-05-01
As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.
Long-term observations of tropospheric ozone: GAW Measurement Guidelines
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tarasova, Oksana; Galbally, Ian E.; Schultz, Martin G.
2013-04-01
The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) coordinates long-term observations of the chemical composition and physical properties of the atmosphere which are relevant for understanding of atmospheric chemistry and climate change. Atmospheric observations of reactive gases (tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides) coordinated by the GAW Programme complement local and regional scale air quality monitoring efforts. As part of the GAW quality assurance (QA) system detailed measurement guidelines for atmospheric trace species are developed by international expert teams at irregular intervals. The most recent report focuses on continuous in-situ measurements of ozone in the troposphere, performed in particular at continental or island sites with altitudes ranging from sea level to mountain tops. Data Quality Objectives (DQOs) are defined for different applications of the data (e.g. trend analysis and verification of global model forecasts). These DQOs include a thorough discussion of the tolerable level of measurement uncertainty and data completeness. The guidelines present the best practices and practical arrangements adopted by the GAW Programme in order to enable the GAW station network to approach or achieve the defined tropospheric ozone DQOs. The document includes information on the selection of station and measurement locations, required skills and training of staff, recommendations on the measurement technique and the necessary equipment to perform highest quality measurements, rules for conducting the measurements, preparing the data and archiving them, and more. Much emphasis is given to discussions about how to ensure the quality of the data through tracing calibrations back to primary standards, proper calibration and data analysis, etc. In the GAW Programme the QA system is implemented through Central Facilities (Central Calibration Laboratories, World and Regional
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny
2017-12-01
Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei
2017-07-01
A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak
2018-02-01
Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Johnson, K. S.; Coletti, L.; Jannasch, H.; Martz, T.; Swift, D.; Riser, S.
2008-12-01
Long-term, autonomous observations of ocean biogeochemical cycles are now feasible with chemical sensors in profiling floats. These sensors will enable decadal-scale observations of trends in global ocean biogeochemical cycles. Here, we focus on measurements on nitrate and dissolved oxygen. The ISUS (In Situ Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer) optical nitrate sensor has been adapted to operate in a Webb Research, Apex profiling float. The Apex float is of the type used in the Argo array and is designed for multi-year, expendable deployments in the ocean. Floats park at 1000 m depth and make 60 nitrate and oxygen measurements at depth intervals ranging from 50 m below 400 m to 5 m in the upper 100 m as they profile to the surface. All data are transmitted to shore using the Iridium telemetry system and they are available on the Internet in near-real time. Floats equipped with ISUS and an Aanderaa oxygen sensor are capable of making 280 vertical profiles from 1000 m. At a 5 day cycle time, the floats should have nearly a four year endurance. Three floats have now been deployed at the Hawaii Ocean Time series station (HOT), Ocean Station Papa (OSP) in the Gulf of Alaska and at 50 South, 30 East in the Southern Ocean. Two additional floats are designated for deployment at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series station (BATS) and in the Drake Passage. The HOT float has made 56 profiles over 260 days and should continue operating for 3 more years. Nitrate concentrations are in excellent agreement with the long-term mean observed at HOT. No significant long-term drift in sensor response has occurred. A variety of features have been observed in the HOT nitrate data that are linked to contemporaneous changes in oxygen production and mesoscale dynamics. The impacts of these features will be briefly described. The Southern Ocean float has operated for 200 days and is now observing reinjection of nitrate into surface waters as winter mixing occurs(surface nitrate > 24 micromolar). We
Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.
Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J
2016-01-01
Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.
2018-05-01
Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuo, Yi-Ming; Lin, Hsing-Juh
2010-01-01
We examined environmental factors which are most responsible for the 8-year temporal dynamics of the intertidal seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in southern Taiwan. A dynamic factor analysis (DFA), a dimension-reduction technique, was applied to identify common trends in a multivariate time series and the relationships between this series and interacting environmental variables. The results of dynamic factor models (DFMs) showed that the leaf growth rate of the seagrass was mainly influenced by salinity (Sal), tidal range (TR), turbidity ( K), and a common trend representing an unexplained variability in the observed time series. Sal was the primary variable that explained the temporal dynamics of the leaf growth rate compared to TR and K. K and TR had larger influences on the leaf growth rate in low- than in high-elevation beds. In addition to K, TR, and Sal, UV-B radiation (UV-B), sediment depth (SD), and a common trend accounted for long-term temporal variations of the above-ground biomass. Thus, K, TR, Sal, UV-B, and SD are the predominant environmental variables that described temporal growth variations of the intertidal seagrass T. hemprichii in southern Taiwan. In addition to environmental variables, human activities may be contributing to negative impacts on the seagrass beds; this human interference may have been responsible for the unexplained common trend in the DFMs. Due to successfully applying the DFA to analyze complicated ecological and environmental data in this study, important environmental variables and impacts of human activities along the coast should be taken into account when managing a coastal environment for the conservation of intertidal seagrass beds.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rawlins, M. A.; Adam, J. C.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Serreze, M. C.; Hinzman, L. D.; Holland, M.; Shiklomanov, A.
2007-12-01
It is expected that a warming climate will be attended by an intensification of the global hydrological cycle. While there are signs of positive trends in several hydrological quantities emerging at the global scale, the scope, character, and quantitative significance of these changes are not well established. In particular, long-term increases in river discharge across Arctic Eurasia are assumed to represent such an intensification and have received considerable attention. Yet, no change in long-term annual precipitation across the region can be related with the discharge trend. Given linkages and feedbacks between the arctic and global climate systems, a more complete understanding of observed changes across northern high latitudes is needed. We present a working definition of an accelerated or intensified hydrological cycle and a synthesis of long-term (nominally 50 years) trends in observed freshwater stocks and fluxes across the arctic land-atmosphere-ocean system. Trend and significance measures from observed data are described alongside expectations of intensification based on GCM simulations of contemporary and future climate. Our domain of interest includes the terrestrial arctic drainage (including all of Alaska and drainage to Hudson Bay), the Arctic Ocean, and the atmosphere over the land and ocean domains. For the terrestrial Arctic, time series of spatial averages which are derived from station data and atmospheric reanalysis are available. Reconstructed data sets are used for quantities such as Arctic Ocean ice and liquid freshwater transports. Study goals include a comprehensive survey of past changes in freshwater across the pan-arctic and a set of benchmarks for expected changes based on an ensemble of GCM simulations, and identification of potential mechanistic linkages which may be examined with contemporary remote sensing data sets.
Long-Term Temporal Trends of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Their Controlling Sources in China.
Zhao, Shizhen; Breivik, Knut; Liu, Guorui; Zheng, Minghui; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J
2017-03-07
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT), and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑ 7 PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation) using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of intentionally produced (IP) emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighboring regions with a net output of ∼0.4 t year -1 by around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Campbell, J. E.; Hilton, T. W.; Laine, M.; Wang, Y.; Berry, J. A.; Hannigan, J. W.
2017-12-01
The seasonal amplitude in atmospheric CO2 has grown over the last 50 years, pointing to a fundamental shift in the regional carbon cycle. Theoretical drivers from the amplitude growth include changes in terrestrial photosynthesis and heterotrophic respiration. However, large-scale, measurement-based evidence for these mechanisms is unclear. Here we analyze historical measurements of carbonyl sulfide which also show long-term growth in seasonal amplitude. We use this new trend to interpret the underlying mechanisms of CO2 amplitude growth and to validate global ecosystem models.
Incidence of climate on common frog breeding: Long-term and short-term changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Neveu, André
2009-09-01
In Brittany (northwest France), the climate is showing a trend toward warming. This change is increasingly suspected to have a role in driving amphibian decline, but it is very difficult to determine at what level the climate affects the future of species. Recently, some studies have detected some direct effects on breeding phenology and indirect effects on energy allocation. The present study explores some of these effects on the common frog ( Rana temporaria) from 1984 to 2007. The results show two trends: a long-term change in breeding activities and a short-term influence due to the 2003 climatic anomaly. For the period of study, the start of egg-laying shows a precocity that was correlated with thermal conditions during the preceding 40 days as well as milder springs during the previous year. This degree of precocity is currently the highest found in Europe (+26.6 days). As a result of the 2003 heat wave, the clutch mean fecundity in 2004 was smaller than for other years, the fecundity rates were reduced and abortions were numerous (unlike other years). Moreover, young females were the smallest observed in recent years and some females seemed to exhibit a trade-off between fecundity and growth. Before or after egg-laying, female body condition and mean weight of mature ovules were both lower. The year 2005 appears as a transition period before the recovery in 2006-2007. The results show that climate warming endangers the vital rates of the common frog, while the 2003 climatic events seem more detrimental than the long-term warming trend.
Long-term series and trends in surface solar radiation in Athens, Greece
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kazadzis, Stelios; Founda, Dimitra; Psiloglou, Basil E.; Kambezidis, Harry; Mihalopoulos, Nickolaos; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Meleti, Charikleia; Raptis, Panagiotis I.; Pierros, Fragiskos; Nabat, Pierre
2018-02-01
We present a long-term series of surface solar radiation (SSR) from the city of Athens, Greece. SSR measurements were performed from 1954 to 2012, and before that (1900-1953) sunshine duration (SD) records were used in order to reconstruct monthly SSR. Analysis of the whole data set (1900-2012) mainly showed very small (0.02 %) changes in SSR from 1900 to 1953, including a maximum decrease of -2.9 % decade-1 in SSR during the 1910 to 1940 period, assuming a linear change. For the dimming period 1955-1980, -2 % decade-1 was observed that matches various European long-term SSR-measurement-related studies. This percentage in Athens is in the lower limit, compared to other studies in the Mediterranean area. For the brightening period 1980-2012 we calculated +1.5 % decade-1, which is also in the lower limit of the reported positive changes in SSR around Europe. Comparing the 30-year periods 1954-1983 and 1983-2012, we found a difference of 4.5 %. However, measurements of the first 30-year period are associated with higher uncertainties than those of the second period, especially when looking at year-to-year changes. The difference between the two periods was observed for all seasons except winter. Analyzing SSR calculations of all-sky and clear-sky (cloudless) conditions/days, we report that most of the observed changes in SSR after 1954 can be attributed partly to cloudiness and mostly to aerosol load changes.
Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.
2014-01-01
Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.
Long-term forecasting of internet backbone traffic.
Papagiannaki, Konstantina; Taft, Nina; Zhang, Zhi-Li; Diot, Christophe
2005-09-01
We introduce a methodology to predict when and where link additions/upgrades have to take place in an Internet protocol (IP) backbone network. Using simple network management protocol (SNMP) statistics, collected continuously since 1999, we compute aggregate demand between any two adjacent points of presence (PoPs) and look at its evolution at time scales larger than 1 h. We show that IP backbone traffic exhibits visible long term trends, strong periodicities, and variability at multiple time scales. Our methodology relies on the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) and linear time series models. Using wavelet MRA, we smooth the collected measurements until we identify the overall long-term trend. The fluctuations around the obtained trend are further analyzed at multiple time scales. We show that the largest amount of variability in the original signal is due to its fluctuations at the 12-h time scale. We model inter-PoP aggregate demand as a multiple linear regression model, consisting of the two identified components. We show that this model accounts for 98% of the total energy in the original signal, while explaining 90% of its variance. Weekly approximations of those components can be accurately modeled with low-order autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. We show that forecasting the long term trend and the fluctuations of the traffic at the 12-h time scale yields accurate estimates for at least 6 months in the future.
Long-term trends of Fluorinated Gas Emissions in Los Angeles, California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuwayama, T.; Blake, D. R.; Gupta, P.; Gallagher, G.; Herner, J.; Vijayan, A.
2016-12-01
Fluorinated gases (F-gases) are highly potent greenhouse gases (GHG) that can significantly influence the global climate. Many of these F-gases are also classified as ozone-depleting substances (ODS) that have been subject to an international phase down under the Montreal Protocol. While ODS emissions have been regulated at the national and international level, California is the first state that has implemented a number of programs under the auspices of the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (Assembly Bill 32 or AB 32) to limit the emissions of ODS substitutes, specifically hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), which are high global warming and the fastest growing GHGs globally. Many of these California programs are being adopted nationally. This study evaluates the real-world emission trends of major F-gas categories (Class I ODS, Class II ODS, and ODS substitutes) between 2007-08 and 2014-16 in Los Angeles, California. The study utilized rigorous ambient measurements of select F-gases at the Mt. Wilson monitoring station, which provided an ideal site to study the well-mixed urban emissions from the entire Los Angeles Air Basin, and integrated it with regional CO emissions data to estimate the top-down F-gas emissions from the region. The resulting dataset was compared against the bottom-up F-gas emissions inventory published by the California Air Resources Board, and was analyzed to study the long-term trends in the regional F-gas emissions. The results summarized in this manuscript provide insight into the effectiveness of the California's regulatory efforts in reducing F-gas emissions.
GLAS Long-Term Archive: Preservation and Stewardship for a Vital Earth Observing Mission
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fowler, D. K.; Moses, J. F.; Zwally, J.; Schutz, B. E.; Hancock, D.; McAllister, M.; Webster, D.; Bond, C.
2012-12-01
Data Stewardship, preservation, and reproducibility are fast becoming principal parts of a data manager's work. In an era of distributed data and information systems, it is of vital importance that organizations make a commitment to both current and long-term goals of data management and the preservation of scientific data. Satellite missions and instruments go through a lifecycle that involves pre-launch calibration, on-orbit data acquisition and product generation, and final reprocessing. Data products and descriptions flow to the archives for distribution on a regular basis during the active part of the mission. However there is additional information from the product generation and science teams needed to ensure the observations will be useful for long term climate studies. Examples include ancillary input datasets, product generation software, and production history as developed by the team during the course of product generation. These data and information will need to be archived after product data processing is completed. NASA has developed a set of Earth science data and information content requirements for long term preservation that is being used for all the EOS missions as they come to completion. Since the ICESat/GLAS mission was one of the first to end, NASA and NSIDC, in collaboration with the science team, are collecting data, software, and documentation, preparing for long-term support of the ICESat mission. For a long-term archive, it is imperative to preserve sufficient information about how products were prepared in order to ensure future researchers that the scientific results are accurate, understandable, and useable. Our experience suggests data centers know what to preserve in most cases. That is, the processing algorithms along with the Level 0 or Level 1a input and ancillary products used to create the higher-level products will be archived and made available to users. In other cases, such as pre-launch, calibration/validation, and test
Lam, Kuen; Kwan, Joseph S K; Wai Kwan, Chi; Chong, Alice M L; Lai, Claudia K Y; Lou, Vivian W Q; Leung, Angela Y M; Liu, Justina Y W; Bai, Xue; Chi, Iris
2017-12-01
Negative effects of restraint use have been well-documented. However, the prevalence of restraints use has been high in long-term care facilities in Hong Kong compared with other countries and this goes against the basic principles of ethical and compassionate care for older people. The present study aimed to review the change in the prevalence of physical and chemical restraint use in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) over a period of 11 years in Hong Kong and to identify the major factors associated with their use. This is an observational study with data obtained from the Hong Kong Longitudinal Study on LTCF Residents between 2005 and 2015. Trained assessors (nurses, social workers, and therapists) used the Minimum Data Set Resident Assessment Instrument to collect the data from 10 residential LTCFs. Physical restraint was defined as the use of any of the following: full bedside rails on all open sides of bed, other types of bedside rails used, trunk restraint, limb restraint, or the use of chair to prevent rising during the past 7 days. Chemical restraint was defined as the use of any of the following medications: antipsychotic, antianxiety, or hypnotic agents during past 7 days, excluding elder residents with a diagnosis of psychiatric illness. Annual prevalence of restraint use over 11 years and factors that were associated with the use of physical and chemical restraints. We analyzed the data for 2896 older people (978 male individuals, mean age = 83.3 years). Between 2005 and 2015, the prevalence of restraint use was as follows: physical restraint use increased from 52.7% to 70.2%; chemical restraint use increased from 15.9% to 21.78%; and either physical or chemical restraint use increased from 57.9% to 75.7%. Physical restraint use was independently associated with older age, impaired activities of daily living or cognitive function, bowel and bladder incontinence, dementia, and negative mood. Chemical restraint use was independently associated
The long term agroecosystem research network - shared research strategy
Jean L. Steiner; Timothy Strickland; Peter J.A. Kleinman; Kris Havstad; Thomas B. Moorman; M.Susan Moran; Phil Hellman; Ray B. Bryant; David Huggins; Greg McCarty
2016-01-01
While current weather patterns and rapidly accelerated changes in technology often focus attention on short-term trends in agriculture, the fundamental demands on modern agriculture to meet society food, feed, fuel and fiber production while providing the foundation for a healthy environment requires long-term perspective. The Long- Term Agroecoystem Research Network...
Long-term Trends in Mean Annual Streamflow in the United States for the Period 1960 to 2012
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderson, M. T.; Norton, P. A.
2013-12-01
Long-term trends in mean annual streamflow were examined in the United States for evidence of climate change. Streamflow serves as a useful integrator of many climate factors, such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature and other hydrologic processes. The U.S. Geological Survey network of gaging stations with continuous record for the period 1960 through 2012 were considered and analyzed using the Kendall Tau statistical method looking for monotonic trends at a p-value greater than or equal to 0.1. Of the stations with 52 years of continuous record, 489 had upward trends while 260 stations had downward trends. Distinct geographic patterns of upward and downward trends emerged. Upward trends predominate in a band of stations extending from the eastern Dakotas through the Midwest to the New England states. Downward trends predominate in the southeastern United States and the Rocky Mountains of Wyoming, Montana and Idaho. Of those stations with upward trends, 56 stations had an increase in the annual mean that more than doubled from 1960 to 2012. The James River in South Dakota and the Red River of the North in North Dakota stand out for the magnitude of increase and the volume of water the increase represents. Of those stations with downward trends, 35 stations had a decrease that was more than half of the annual mean from 1960 to 2012. This presentation will provide details of these trends, the volumes of water represented, the associated precipitation trends and some evidence of land use change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Herrmann, S. M.; Tappan, G. G.
2014-12-01
Semi-arid West Africa is experiencing change at many levels (climatic, agricultural, socioeconomic), which leaves an imprint on the land surface that can be characterized by a range of long term satellite observations. This research addresses the questions of (1) what dominant trajectories of land use/land cover (LULC) change have occurred in the region and (2) whether particular LULC trajectories are associated with significant positive or negative trends in bioproductivity. Two types of satellite data were used in complementary fashion: (1) Landsat multispectral data were visually interpreted using the traditional dot grid method, whereby the interpreter identifies and attributes LULC at point locations spaced 2km apart. Interpreted LULC maps were produced for three points in time (1975, 2000, 2013), and LULC change statistics extracted from them. (2) The MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used as a proxy for bioproductivity and temporal trends of annual mean, maximum and minimum NDVI extracted at the sampling dots of known LULC for the period 2000-2013. The trends were analyzed with respect to the most prominent LULC classes and transitions, in particular from agriculture to natural vegetation and vice versa, and stratified by regions of similar mean annual precipitation. The most important LULC change over the almost 40-year period is a progressive expansion of agricultural lands, which has been responsible for major incursions into the region's remaining savannas and woodlands. To a lesser extent, abandonment of agriculture has given rise to long term fallow and eventually reversion to steppe or savanna. Another important change observed is the expansion of open steppe at the expense of savanna in the Sahel region. In terms of bioproductivity, while no significant trends in NDVI predominate overall, there are more instances of positive than of negative significant trends across the region. Contrary to our initial expectations, preliminary
Evaluation of Long-term Soil Moisture Proxies in the U.S. Great Plains
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuan, S.; Quiring, S. M.
2016-12-01
Soil moisture plays an important role in land-atmosphere interactions through both surface energy and water balances. However, despite its importance, there are few long-term records of observed soil moisture for investigating long-term spatial and temporal variations of soil moisture. Hence, it is necessary to find suitable approximations of soil moisture observations. 5 drought indices will be compared with simulated and observed soil moisture over the U.S. Great Plains during two time periods (1980 - 2012 and 2003 - 2012). Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Z Index (zindex) and Crop Moisture Index (CMI) will be calculated by PRISM data. The soil moisture simulations will be derived from NLDAS. In situ soil moisture will be obtained from North American Soil Moisture Database. The evaluation will focus on three main aspects: trends, variations and persistence. The results will support further research investigating long-term variations in soil moisture-climate interactions.
Long-Term Use of Benzodiazepines and Nonbenzodiazepine Hypnotics, 1999-2014.
Kaufmann, Christopher N; Spira, Adam P; Depp, Colin A; Mojtabai, Ramin
2018-02-01
Clinical guidelines suggest that benzodiazepines (BZDs) and non-BZD hypnotics (NBHs) be used on a short-term basis. The authors examined trends in long-term BZD and NBH use from 1999 to 2014. Data included 82,091 respondents in the 1999-2014 waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). NHANES recorded medications used in the past 30 days on the basis of prescription bottles, and participants reported use duration. BZD and NBH use were categorized as short, medium, and long term, and time trends in use were assessed. BZD and NBH use increased from 1999 to 2014, driven by increases in medium- and long-term use, even after adjustment for age and race-ethnicity. In most years, only a fifth of current BZD or NBH users reported short-term use. Long-term BZD and NBH use has grown independent of U.S. demographic shifts. Monitoring of use is needed to prevent adverse outcomes.
Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation
Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.
2016-01-01
Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Christensen, M.; McGarragh, G.; Thomas, G.; Povey, A.; Proud, S.; Poulsen, C. A.; Grainger, R. G.
2016-12-01
Radiative forcing by clouds, aerosols, and their interactions constitute some of the largest sources of uncertainties in the climate system (Chapter 7 IPCC, 2013). It is essential to understand the past through examination of long-term satellite observation records to provide insight into the uncertainty characteristics of these radiative forcers. As part of the ESA CCI (Climate Change Initiative) we have recently implemented a broadband radiative flux algorithm (known as BUGSrad) into the Optimal Retrieval for Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) scheme. ORAC achieves radiative consistency of its aerosol and cloud products through an optimal estimation scheme and is highly versatile, enabling retrievals for numerous satellite sensors: ATSR, MODIS, VIIRS, AVHRR, SLSTR, SEVIRI, and AHI. An analysis of the 17-year well-calibrated Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) data is used to quantify trends in cloud and aerosol radiative effects over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The El Niño Southern Oscillation stands out as the largest contributing mode of variability to the radiative energy balance (long wave and shortwave fluxes) at the top of the atmosphere. Furthermore, trends in planetary albedo show substantial decreases across the Arctic Ocean (likely due to the melting of sea ice and snow) and modest increases in regions dominated by stratocumulus (e.g., off the coast of California) through notable increases in cloud fraction and liquid water path. Finally, changes in volcanic activity and biomass burning aerosol over this period show sizeable radiative forcing impacts at local-scales. We will demonstrate that radiative forcing from aerosols and clouds have played a significant role in the identified key climate processes using 17 years of satellite observational data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Davey, Christopher A.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.
2005-04-01
The U.S. Historical Climate Network is a subset of surface weather observation stations selected from the National Weather Service cooperative station network. The criteria used to select these stations do not sufficiently address station exposure characteristics. In addition, the current metadata available for cooperative network stations generally do not describe site exposure characteristics in sufficient detail. This paper focuses on site exposures with respect to air temperature measurements. A total of 57 stations were photographically surveyed in eastern Colorado, comparing existing exposures to the standards endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization. The exposures of most sites surveyed, including U.S. Historical Climate Network sites, were observed to fall short of these standards. This raises a critical question about the use of many Historical Climate Network sites in the development of long-term climate records and the detection of climate trends. Some of these sites clearly have poor exposures and therefore should be considered for removal from the Historical Climate Network. Candidate replacement sites do exist and should be considered for addition into the network to replace the removed sites. Documentation as performed for this study should be conducted worldwide in order to determine the extent of spatially nonrepresentative exposures and possible temperature biases.
Long-term monitoring of black carbon across Germany
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kutzner, Rebecca D.; von Schneidemesser, Erika; Kuik, Friderike; Quedenau, Jörn; Weatherhead, Elizabeth C.; Schmale, Julia
2018-07-01
Lately, black carbon (BC) has received significant attention due to its climate-warming properties and adverse health effects. Nevertheless, long-term observations in urban areas are scarce, most likely because BC monitoring is not required by environmental legislation. This, however, handicaps the evaluation of air quality models which can be used to assess the effectiveness of policy measures which aim to reduce BC concentrations. Here, we present a new dataset of atmospheric BC measurements from Germany constructed from over six million measurements at over 170 stations. Data covering the period between 1994 and 2014 were collected from twelve German Federal States and the Federal Environment Agency, quality checked and harmonized into a database with comprehensive metadata. The final data in original time resolution are available for download (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.881173) Our analysis focuses on 2009, the year with the largest data coverage with one single methodology, as well as on the relative changes in long-term trends over ten years. For 2009, we find that BC concentrations at traffic sites were at least twice as high as at urban background, industrial and rural sites. Weekly cycles are most prominent at traffic stations, however, the presence of differences in concentrations during the week and on weekends at other station types suggests that traffic plays an important role throughout the full network. Generally higher concentrations and weaker weekly cycles during the winter months point towards the influence of other sources such as domestic heating. Regarding the long-term trends, advanced statistical techniques allow us to account for instrumentation changes and to separate seasonal and long-term changes in our dataset. Analysis shows a downward trend in BC at nearly all locations and in all conditions, with a high level of confidence for the period of 2005-2014. In depth analysis indicates that background BC is decreasing slowly, while the
Long-term fault creep observations in central California
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schulz, Sandra S.; Mavko, Gerald M.; Burford, Robert O.; Stuart, William D.
1982-08-01
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been monitoring aseismic fault slip in central California for more than 10 years as part of an earthquake prediction experiment. Since 1968, the USGS creep network has grown from one creep meter at the Cienega Winery south of Hollister to a 44-station network that stretches from Hayward, east of San Francisco Bay, to Palmdale in southern California. In general, the long-term slip pattern is most variable on sections of the faults where several magnitude 4 and larger earthquakes occurred during the recording period (e.g., Calaveras fault near Hollister and San Andreas fault between San Juan Bautista and Bear Valley). These fault sections are the most difficult to characterize with a single long-term slip rate. In contrast, sections of the faults that are seismically relatively quiet (e.g., San Andreas fault between Bear Valley and Parkfield) produce the steadiest creep records and are easiest to fit with a single long-term slip rate. Appendix is available with entire article on microfiche. Order from the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009. Document J82-004; $1.00. Payment must accompany order.
Long-Term Trends in Calcifying Plankton and pH in the North Sea
Beare, Doug; McQuatters-Gollop, Abigail; van der Hammen, Tessa; Machiels, Marcel; Teoh, Shwu Jiau; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.
2013-01-01
Relationships between six calcifying plankton groups and pH are explored in a highly biologically productive and data-rich area of the central North Sea using time-series datasets. The long-term trends show that abundances of foraminiferans, coccolithophores, and echinoderm larvae have risen over the last few decades while the abundances of bivalves and pteropods have declined. Despite good coverage of pH data for the study area there is uncertainty over the quality of this historical dataset; pH appears to have been declining since the mid 1990s but there was no statistical connection between the abundance of the calcifying plankton and the pH trends. If there are any effects of pH on calcifying plankton in the North Sea they appear to be masked by the combined effects of other climatic (e.g. temperature), chemical (nutrient concentrations) and biotic (predation) drivers. Certain calcified plankton have proliferated in the central North Sea, and are tolerant of changes in pH that have occurred since the 1950s but bivalve larvae and pteropods have declined. An improved monitoring programme is required as ocean acidification may be occurring at a rate that will exceed the environmental niches of numerous planktonic taxa, testing their capacities for acclimation and genetic adaptation. PMID:23658686
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee, Robert Benjamin, III; Wilson, Robert S.
2003-01-01
Long-term, incoming total solar irradiance (TSI) measurement trends were validated using proxy TSI values, derived from indices of solar magnetic activity. Spacecraft active cavity radiometers (ACR) are being used to measure longterm TSI variability, which may trigger global climate changes. The TSI, typically referred to as the solar constant, was normalized to the mean earth-sun distance. Studies of spacecraft TSI data sets confirmed the existence of a 0.1 %, long-term TSI variability component within a 10-year period. The 0.1% TSI variability component is clearly present in the spacecraft data sets from the 1984-2004 time frame. Typically, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were used to validate long-term TSI variability trends. However, during the years of 1978-1984, 1989-1991, and 1993-1996, three overlapping spacecraft data sets were not available in order to validate TSI trends. The TSI was found to vary with indices of solar magnetic activity associated with recent 10-year sunspot cycles. Proxy TSI values were derived from least squares analyses of the measured TSI variability with the solar indices of 10.7-cm solar fluxes, and with limb-darked sunspot fluxes. The resulting proxy TSI values were compared to the spacecraft ACR measurements of TSI variability to detect ACR instrument degradation, which may be interpreted as TSI variability. Analyses of ACR measurements and TSI proxies are presented primarily for the 1984-2004, Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) ACR solar monitor data set. Differences in proxy and spacecraft measurement data sets suggest the existence of another TSI variability component with an amplitude greater than or equal to 0.5 Wm-2 (0.04%), and with a cycle of 20 years or more.
Long term trends of fish after liming of Swedish streams and lakes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Holmgren, Kerstin; Degerman, Erik; Petersson, Erik; Bergquist, Björn
2016-12-01
Thousands of Swedish acidified lakes and streams have been regularly limed for about 30 years. Standard sampling of fish assemblages in lakes and streams was an important part of monitoring the trends after liming, i.e. sampling with multi-mesh gillnets in lakes (EN 14757) and electrofishing in streams (EN 14011). Monitoring data are nationally managed, in the National Register of Survey test-fishing and the Swedish Electrofishing Register. We evaluated long-term data from 1029 electrofishing sites in limed streams and gillnet sampling in 750 limed lakes, along with reference data from 195 stream sites and 101 lakes with no upstream liming in their catchments. The median year of first liming was 1986 for both streams and lakes. The proportion of limed stream sites with no fish clearly decreased with time, mean species richness and proportion of sites with brown trout (Salmo trutta) recruits increased. There were no consistent trends in fish occurrence or species richness at non-limed sites, but occurrence of brown trout recruits also increased in acid as well as neutral reference streams. Abundance of brown trout, perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) increased significantly more at limed sites than at non-limed reference sites sampled before and after 1986. The mean species richness did not change consistently in limed lakes, but decreased in low alkalinity reference lakes, and fish abundance decreased significantly in limed as well as in non-limed lakes.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stagličić, N.; Matić-Skoko, S.; Pallaoro, A.; Grgičević, R.; Kraljević, M.; Tutman, P.; Dragičević, B.; Dulčić, J.
2011-09-01
Long-term interannual changes in abundance, biomass, diversity and structure of littoral fish assemblages were examined between 1993 and 2009 by experimental trammel net fishing up to six times per year, within the warm period - May to September, at multiple areas along the eastern Adriatic coast with the aim of testing for the consistency of patterns of change across a large spatial scale (˜600 km). The results revealed spatially consistent increasing trends of total fish abundance and biomass growing at an average rate of 15 and 14% per year, respectively. Of the diversity indices analysed, the same pattern of variability was observed for Shannon diversity, while Pielou evenness and average taxonomic distinctness measures Δ ∗ and Δ + showed spatial variability with no obvious temporal trends. Multivariate fish assemblage structure underwent a directional change displaying a similar pattern through time for all the areas. The structural change in fish assemblages generally involved most of the species present in trammel net catches. A large pool of fish species responsible for producing the temporal pattern of assemblage change was relatively different in each of the areas reflecting a large geographic range covered by the study. An analysis of 4 fish species ( Symphodus tinca, Pagellus erythrinus, Mullus surmuletus, Scorpaena porcus) common to each of the study areas as the ones driving the temporal change indicated that there were clear increasing trends of their mean catches across the years at all the study areas. A common pattern among time trajectories across the spatial scale studied implies that the factor affecting the littoral fish assemblages is not localised but regional in nature. As an underlying factor having the potential to induce such widespread and consistent improvements in littoral fish assemblages, a more restrictive artisanal fishery management that has progressively been put in place during the study period, is suggested and discussed.
Wai, K M; Wang, X M; Lin, T H; Wong, M S; Zeng, S K; He, N; Ng, E; Lau, K; Wang, D H
2017-12-01
Although projected precipitation increases in East Asia due to future climate change have aroused concern, less attention has been paid by the scientific community and public to the potential long-term increase in precipitation due to rapid urbanization. A ten-year precipitation dataset was analysed for both a rapidly urbanized megacity and nearby suburban/rural stations in southern China. Rapid urbanization in the megacity was evident from satellite observations. A statistically significant, long-term, increasing trend of precipitation existed only at the megacity station (45.6mm per decade) and not at the other stations. The increase was attributed to thermal and dynamical modifications of the tropospheric boundary layer related to urbanization, which was confirmed by the results of our WRF-SLUCM simulations. The results also suggested that a long-term regional increase in precipitation, caused by greenhouse gas-induced climate change, for instance, was not evident within the study period. The urbanization-induced increase was found to be higher than the precipitation increase (18.3mm per decade) expected from future climate change. The direct climate impacts due to rapid urbanization is highlighted with strong implications for urban sustainable development and the planning of effective adaptation strategies for issues such as coastal defenses, mosquito-borne disease spread and heat stress mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.
2014-12-01
Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Harper, D. T.; Penman, D. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.
2014-12-01
Boron isotopes (δ11B) and boron/calcium ratios (B/Ca) in tests of planktic foraminifera are controlled by equilibrium reactions between boron and carbon species in seawater, and thus represent important proxies of past marine carbonate chemistry. Indeed, the recent application of these boron-based proxies to fossil shells of planktic foraminifera from cores spanning the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56Ma, an abrupt global warming and ocean acidification event) reveal a decline of ~0.3 in the pH of the mixed-layer [1], an anomaly that is well within the range of estimates based on the observed shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) [2, and references therein]. The PETM occurred superimposed on a long-term warming trend that initiated in the Late Paleocene and continued into the Early Eocene (LPEE; 53-59Ma). The magnitude of warming [3] and deepening of the CCD [4] indicate that the LPEE was driven by a rise in pCO2 nearly equivalent to that of the PETM [5]. Here we extend the PETM record of boron-based proxies at IODP Site 1209 across the LPEE, in conjunction with stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in planktic foraminifera, in order to better constrain the long-term changes in pH and carbonate chemistry that accompanied the suggested rise in atmospheric CO2. The 20kyr resolution B/Ca record shows a long-term decline of ~25% during the LPEE, as well as subtle 400kyr cycles associated with eccentricity that mirror those observed in δ13C, and thus might reflect on changes in pH. The lower resolution δ11B record exhibits little change during the Late Paleocene before decreasing step-wise to lower values following the PETM, indicating that either pH in the upper ocean did not change significantly prior to the PETM, despite warming and inferred pCO2 increase, or changes in δ11Bseawater compensated for pH driven changes. As verification of these observations at Site 1209, complementary B/Ca and δ11B records are being generated for Atlantic IODP
Mentzafou, A; Wagner, S; Dimitriou, E
2018-04-29
Identifying the historical hydrometeorological trends in a river basin is necessary for understanding the dominant interactions between climate, human activities and local hydromorphological conditions. Estimating the hydrological reference conditions in a river is also crucial for estimating accurately the impacts from human water related activities and design appropriate water management schemes. In this effort, the output of a regional past climate model was used, covering the period from 1660 to 1990, in combination with a dynamic, spatially distributed, hydrologic model to estimate the past and recent trends in the main hydrologic parameters such as overland flow, water storages and evapotranspiration, in a Mediterranean river basin. The simulated past hydrologic conditions (1660-1960) were compared with the current hydrologic regime (1960-1990), to assess the magnitude of human and natural impacts on the identified hydrologic trends. The hydrological components of the recent period of 2008-2016 were also examined in relation to the impact of human activities. The estimated long-term trends of the hydrologic parameters were partially assigned to varying atmospheric forcing due to volcanic activity combined with spontaneous meteorological fluctuations. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.
2011-08-01
Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.
Long-term analysis and appropriate metrics of climate change in Mongolia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar
This study addresses three important issues related to long-term climate change study in Mongolia. Mongolia is one of the biggest land-locked countries in Asia and 75--80 percent of the land is rangeland, which is highly vulnerable to climate change. Climate will affect many sectors critical to the country's economic, social, and ecological welfare. Therefore, it is regionally and globally important to evaluate climate change in Mongolia. Chapter 1 discusses the qualitative and descriptive study on exposure characteristics of the 17 Mongolian meteorological stations, which are part of the Global Climate Observing Network (GCON). The global average temperature anomalies are based in part on the GCON stations' meteorological data. To document the possible exposures surrounding the weather stations, the Mongolian meteorological stations were surveyed during July--August 2005. From the total 17 stations, 47 percent were determined strongly influenced by urban character landscape, 41 percent received some anthropogenic influences, and 12 percent had very little to no anthropogenic influences. Even though the Mongolian meteorological stations' exposure characteristics are better than the European and North American stations' the strict adherence in following WMO guidelines is important and urgently needed. Chapter 2 evaluates the long-term (1961--2005) trends in seasonal and annual surface mean, maximum, minimum temperatures and precipitation. Furthermore, this study compares the long-term mean temperature trends with decadal (1998--2007) trends. This chapter also discusses the extreme climate indices on spatial and temporal scales. According to the results, the long-term linear temperature trends show a clear increasing trend whereas the decadal trends show the decreasing trend mostly in winter and spring. The analysis of extreme indices (1961--2001) indicate that most of the stations frost and icing days are decreased and summer days, tropical nights, monthly maximum
Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.
1998-01-01
OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of
Long-term irradiance observation and short-term flare prediction with LYRA on PROBA2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dammasch, Ingolf; Dominique, Marie; West, Matthew; Katsiyannis, Thanassis; Ryan, Daniel; Wauters, Laurence
The solar radiometer LYRA on board the ESA micro-satellite PROBA2 has observed the Sun continuously since January 2010 in various spectral band passes, and has gained a considerable data base. Two of the LYRA channels cover the irradiance between soft X-ray and extreme ultraviolet. The variation of the sunspot number appears to show a strong similarity with the variation of these channels, when their long-range development is taken into account. The same holds for SXR levels observed by the GOES satellites. Due to LYRA's bandwidth and coverage of various active-region temperatures, its relatively smooth development may yield some information on the structure of the current solar cycle. On its websites, LYRA presents not only EUV and SXR time series in near real-time, but also information on flare parameters and long-term irradiance and sunspot levels. It will be demonstrated whether it is possible to aid space weather forecast with these statistical data, especially for the prediction of expected flare strength on a daily basis.
Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H
2018-02-01
Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Friedman, A. R.; Reverdin, G. P.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.
2017-12-01
In the North Atlantic, sea surface salinity is both an indicator of the hydrological cycle and an active component of the ocean circulation. As an indirect "ocean rain gauge", surface salinity reflects the net surface fluxes of evaporation - precipitation + runoff, along with advection and vertical mixing. Subpolar surface salinity also may influence the strength of deep convection and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, continuous surface salinity time series beginning before the 1950s are rare, limiting our ability to resolve modes of variability and long-term trends. Here, we present a new gridded surface salinity record in the Atlantic from 1896-2013, compiled from a variety of historical sources. The compilation covers most of the Atlantic from 20°S-70°N, at 100-1000 km length scale and interannual temporal resolution, allowing us to resolve major modes of variability and linkages with large-scale Atlantic climate variations. We find that the low-latitude (tropical and subtropical) Atlantic and the subpolar Atlantic surface salinity are negatively correlated, with subpolar anomalies leading low-latitude anomalies by about a decade. Subpolar surface salinity varies in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), whereas low-latitude surface salinity lags the AMO and varies in phase with the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Additionally, northern tropical surface salinity is anticorrelated with the AMO and with Sahel rainfall, suggesting that it reflects the latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The 1896-2013 long-term trend features an amplification of the mean Atlantic surface salinity gradient pattern, with freshening in the subpolar Atlantic and salinification in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. We find that regressing out the AMO and the low-frequency NAO has little effect on the long-term residual trend. The spatial trend structure is consistent with the "rich-get-richer" hydrological
Night-time lights: A global, long term look at links to socio-economic trends
Zavala-Araiza, Daniel; Wagner, Gernot
2017-01-01
We use a parallelized spatial analytics platform to process the twenty-one year totality of the longest-running time series of night-time lights data—the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) dataset—surpassing the narrower scope of prior studies to assess changes in area lit of countries globally. Doing so allows a retrospective look at the global, long-term relationships between night-time lights and a series of socio-economic indicators. We find the strongest correlations with electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and GDP, followed by population, CH4 emissions, N2O emissions, poverty (inverse) and F-gas emissions. Relating area lit to electricity consumption shows that while a basic linear model provides a good statistical fit, regional and temporal trends are found to have a significant impact. PMID:28346500
UV-radiation in the past: Reconstruction and long-term changes in Austria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hadzimustafic, J.; Simic, S.; Fitzka, M.
2013-05-01
Series of daily erythemal UV-dose are reconstructed for the last 30 years of the 20th century in Austria and its changes during that period with respect to observed changes in total ozone and cloud cover discussed. The reconstruction method is based on the relationship between long-term global radiation and sunshine duration records and existing measurements of erythemal UV at several locations. Through comparison with different data sources efforts are made to assure high data quality for all input parameters. The results for reconstructed daily sums show high correlations (0.95-0.99) with observed values compared on a yearly and seasonal basis throughout the overlapping period 1998-2010. Assessed from the reconstructed data, long-term variability of erythemal UV daily dose for two time periods has been quantified (1977-1995, 1996-2010). Special emphasis is put on the investigation of changes in UV due to observed trends in clouds and sunshine duration in the Austrian Alpine regions during the last decades. The earlier period shows significant changes between +4.1 %/dec and +6.9 %/dec at six stations in Austria, mainly due to significant decreases in total ozone column of up to -3.7 %/dec. Positive significant trends of around +2%/dec are found in cloud and aerosol modification factors at most of stations along with observed positive trends in sunshine duration, being statistically significant at eastern and southern stations. In spite of ozone layer recovery since the mid 1990s, the latter period does not reveal any statistically significant changes in erythemal UV irradiation.
Modeling long-term trends of chlorinated ethene contamination at a public supply well
Chapelle, Francis H.; Kauffman, Leon J.; Widdowson, Mark A.
2015-01-01
A mass-balance solute-transport modeling approach was used to investigate the effects of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) volume, composition, and generation of daughter products on simulated and measured long-term trends of chlorinated ethene (CE) concentrations at a public supply well. The model was built by telescoping a calibrated regional three-dimensional MODFLOW model to the capture zone of a public supply well that has a history of CE contamination. The local model was then used to simulate the interactions between naturally occurring organic carbon that acts as an electron donor, and dissolved oxygen (DO), CEs, ferric iron, and sulfate that act as electron acceptors using the Sequential Electron Acceptor Model in three dimensions (SEAM3D) code. The modeling results indicate that asymmetry between rapidly rising and more gradual falling concentration trends over time suggests a DNAPL rather than a dissolved source of CEs. Peak concentrations of CEs are proportional to the volume and composition of the DNAPL source. The persistence of contamination, which can vary from a few years to centuries, is proportional to DNAPL volume, but is unaffected by DNAPL composition. These results show that monitoring CE concentrations in raw water produced by impacted public supply wells over time can provide useful information concerning the nature of contaminant sources and the likely future persistence of contamination.
Butman, Bradford; Bothner, Michael H.; Alexander, P. Soupy; Lightsom, Frances L.; Martini, Marinna A.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Strahle, William S.
2004-01-01
This data report presents long-term oceanographic observations made in western Massachusetts Bay at two locations: (1) 42 deg 22.6' N., 70 deg 47.0' W. (Site A, 33 m water depth) from December 1989 through December 2002 (figure 1), and (2) 42 deg 9.8' N., 70 deg 38.4' W. (Site B, 21 m water depth) from October 1997 through December 2002. Site A is approximately 1 km south of the new ocean outfall that began discharging treated sewage effluent from the Boston metropolitan area into Massachusetts Bay on September 6, 2000. These long-term oceanographic observations have been collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in partnership with the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) and with logistical support from the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG - http://www.uscg.mil). This report presents time series data through December 2002, updating a similar report that presented data through December 2000 (Butman and others, 2002). In addition, the Statistics and Mean Flow sections include some new plots and tables and the format of the report has been streamlined by combining yearly figures into single .pdfs. Figure 1 (PDF format) The long-term measurements are planned to continue at least through 2005. The long-term oceanographic observations at Sites A and B are part of a USGS study designed to understand the transport and long-term fate of sediments and associated contaminants in the Massachusetts bays. (See http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/bostonharbor/ and Butman and Bothner, 1997.) The long-term observations document seasonal and inter-annual changes in currents, hydrography, and suspended-matter concentration in western Massachusetts Bay, and the importance of infrequent catastrophic events, such as major storms or hurricanes, in sediment resuspension and transport. They also provide observations for testing numerical models of circulation. This data report presents a description of the field program and instrumentation, an overview of the data through
Bányiová, Katarína; Černá, Milena; Mikeš, Ondřej; Komprdová, Klára; Sharma, Anežka; Gyalpo, Tenzing; Čupr, Pavel; Scheringer, Martin
2017-11-01
Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from the group of persistent organic pollutants are detected in human tissues years or even decades after their ban. Exposure to PCBs and OCPs can pose risks to human health. In the present study, we calculated the daily intakes of PCBs and OCPs in the Czech population and investigated the long-term trends of human exposure to POPs. Data on POP concentrations from a 16-year period of breast-milk monitoring were used. A toxicokinetic model with consideration of compound-specific elimination half-lives was used to calculate the mothers' daily intake of PCBs and OCPs representing the intake of POPs by all exposure routes. The calculated intakes were compared with dietary intakes calculated by the Czech National Institute of Public Health. The comparison shows good agreement of both intake estimates with decreasing intake trends of POPs in the Czech population in the time period studied. However, several fluctuations with peaks of higher levels were observed in both datasets which are not typical for the period after the ban of use and production of POPs. The available evidence suggests that the increases in chemical concentrations might be caused by food contamination. The calculated intakes of compounds with longer elimination half-lives, such as higher-chlorinated PCBs, were higher in older mothers. This "memory effect" was already observed in other studies and indicates higher exposure in earlier life periods of the mother. Our results suggest that exposure to POPs is still relevant for the Czech population in the period after the ban of the use and production of POPs (post-ban period), especially via food ingestion, though the intake trends are decreasing. Possible food contamination by POPs in the post-ban period requires further assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Long term observation of low altitude atmosphere by high precision polarization lidar
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiina, Tatsuo; Noguchi, Kazuo; Fukuchi, Tetsuo
2011-11-01
Prediction of weather disaster such as heavy rain and light strike is an earnest desire. Successive monitoring of the low altitude atmosphere is important to predict it. The weather disaster often befalls with a steep change in a local area. It is hard for usual meteorological equipments to capture and alert it speedily. We have been developed the near range lidar to capture and analyze the low altitude atmosphere. In this study, high precision polarization lidar was developed to observe the low altitude atmosphere. This lidar has the high extinction ratio of polarization of >30dB to detect the small polarization change of the atmosphere. The change of the polarization in the atmosphere leads to the detection of the depolarization effect and the Faraday effect, which are caused by ice-crystals and lightning discharge, respectively. As the lidar optics is "inline" type, which means common use of optics for transmitter and receiver, it can observe the near range echo with the narrow field of view. The long-term observation was accomplished at low elevation angle. It aims to monitor the low altitude atmosphere under the cloud base and capture its spatial distribution and convection process. In the viewpoint of polarization, the ice-crystals' flow and concentration change of the aerosols are monitored. The observation has been continued in the cloudy and rainy days. The thunder cloud is also a target. In this report, the system specification is explained to clear the potential and the aims. The several observation data including the long-term observation will be shown with the consideration of polarization analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.
2012-06-01
Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.
Efficiency dilution: long-term exergy conversion trends in Japan.
Williams, Eric; Warr, Benjamin; Ayres, Robert U
2008-07-01
This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency captures the degree to which energy inputs (such as coal) are converted into useful work (such as electricity or power to move a vehicle). This approach enables the estimation of net efficiencies which aggregate different technologies. Sectors specifically analyzed are electricity generation, transport, steel production, and residential space heating. One result is that the aggregate exergy efficiency of the Japanese economy declined slightly over the last half of the 20th century, reaching a high of around 38% in the late 1970s and falling to around 33% by 1998. The explanation for this is that while individual technologies improved dramatically over the century, less exergy-efficient ones were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.
Minocha, Rakesh; Turlapati, Swathi A; Long, Stephanie; McDowell, William H; Minocha, Subhash C
2015-08-01
We evaluated the long-term (1995-2008) trends in foliar and sapwood metabolism, soil solution chemistry and tree mortality rates in response to chronic nitrogen (N) additions to pine and hardwood stands at the Harvard Forest Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. Common stress-related metabolites like polyamines (PAs), free amino acids (AAs) and inorganic elements were analyzed for control, low N (LN, 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) and high N (HN, 150 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1)) treatments. In the pine stands, partitioning of excess N into foliar PAs and AAs increased with both N treatments until 2002. By 2005, several of these effects on N metabolites disappeared for HN, and by 2008 they were mostly observed for LN plot. A significant decline in foliar Ca and P was observed mostly with HN for a few years until 2005. However, sapwood data actually showed an increase in Ca, Mg and Mn and no change in PAs in the HN plot for 2008, while AAs data revealed trends that were generally similar to foliage for 2008. Concomitant with these changes, mortality data revealed a large number of dead trees in HN pine plots by 2002; the mortality rate started to decline by 2005. Oak trees in the hardwood plot did not exhibit any major changes in PAs, AAs, nutrients and mortality rate with LN treatment, indicating that oak trees were able to tolerate the yearly doses of 50 kg NH4NO3 ha(-1) year(-1). However, HN trees suffered from physiological and nutritional stress along with increased mortality in 2008. In this case also, foliar data were supported by the sapwood data. Overall, both low and high N applications resulted in greater physiological stress to the pine trees than the oaks. In general, the time course of changes in metabolic data are in agreement with the published reports on changes in soil chemistry and microbial community structure, rates of soil carbon sequestration and production of woody biomass for this chronic N study. This correspondence of selected metabolites
Pannatier, Elisabeth Graf; Thimonier, Anne; Schmitt, Maria; Walthert, Lorenz; Waldner, Peter
2011-03-01
Trends in atmospheric acid deposition and in soil solution acidity from 1995 or later until 2007 were investigated at several forest sites throughout Switzerland to assess the effects of air pollution abatements on deposition and the response of the soil solution chemistry. Deposition of the major elements was estimated from throughfall and bulk deposition measurements at nine sites of the Swiss Long-Term Forest Ecosystem Research network (LWF) since 1995 or later. Soil solution was measured at seven plots at four soil depths since 1998 or later. Trends in the molar ratio of base cations to aluminum (BC/Al) in soil solutions and in concentrations and fluxes of inorganic N (NO(3)-N + NH(4)-N), sulfate (SO(4)-S), and base cations (BC) were used to detect changes in soil solution chemistry. Acid deposition significantly decreased at three out of the nine study sites due to a decrease in total N deposition. Total SO(4)-S deposition decreased at the nine sites, but due to the relatively low amount of SO(4)-S load compared to N deposition, it did not contribute to decrease acid deposition significantly. No trend in total BC deposition was detected. In the soil solution, no trend in concentrations and fluxes of BC, SO(4)-S, and inorganic N were found at most soil depths at five out of the seven sites. This suggests that the soil solution reacted very little to the changes in atmospheric deposition. A stronger reduction in base cations compared to aluminum was detected at two sites, which might indicate that acidification of the soil solution was proceeding faster at these sites.
Long-term changes (1980-2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Białek, Małgorzata
2006-03-01
Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980-2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980-2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eble, M. C.; Mungov, G.
2016-12-01
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration holds more than 3200 months of ocean bottom temperature time series recorded by the network of Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) developed for reporting bottom pressure in support of tsunami detection and warning. Measurements were made at more than 40 locations sited predominately within the Pacific Ocean, with a lesser number made at sites in the North Atlantic. Since 2003, time series data were collected at isolated locations and at those in close proximity to sites measuring other ocean and atmosphere parameters (e.g. TAO/TRITON), at depths ranging from approximately 1800 m to nearly 6000 m. A full 2300 months of temperature measurements were made by DART systems deployed at or below 4000 m. These time series offer the potential of narrowing a gap in the global ocean observing system (OceanObs09) by exposing long-term climate trends at more locations in the ocean deep then now available. The potential held by these data given specific limitations is the focus of this investigation. Limitations stem from the primary function of temperature being to correct pressure. The sole function of temperature has historically been to provide a correction to pressure so little attention has been paid to optimizing temperature measurements for long-term investigations. Temperature counts, like those of pressure, are converted to engineering units using calibration coefficients supplied by the manufacturer but temperatures are only coarsely calibrated. In addition, the response of each pressure transducer to ocean pressure varies by deployment and location. Time series of DART temperature frequency counts recorded during specific single deployments were processed and analyzed to identify consistent trends and explore methodologies that could be adopted in order to improve the utility (NOAA, 2014) of DART temperature measurements for climate studies. These data represent a vast amount of untapped
Smith, Lesley; Glaser, Adam W; Kinsey, Sally E; Greenwood, Darren C; Chilton, Lucy; Moorman, Anthony V; Feltbower, Richard G
2018-05-29
'Cure models' offer additional information to traditional epidemiological approaches to assess survival for cancer patients by simultaneously estimating the proportion cured and the survival of those 'uncured'. The proportion cured is a summary of long-term survival while the median survival time of the uncured provides important information on those who are not long-term survivors. Population-based trends in the cure proportion and survival of the uncured for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) by clinical prognostic risk factors were estimated using flexible parametric cure models, based on overall survival and event-free survival. Children aged 1-17 years diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 in Yorkshire, UK, were included (n = 492). The percentage cured increased from 77% (95% confidence interval 70-84%) in 1990-1997 to 89% (84-93%) in 2003-2011, while the median survival time of the uncured decreased from 3·2 years (2·2-4·1 years) to 0·7 years (0-1·5 years). Models based on event-free survival showed a similar trend. The 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse substantially decreased from 35% in 1990-97 to 9% in 2003-2011. These results show selective improvement in survival between 1990 and 2011 with a significant reduction in the risk of relapse alongside a reduced absolute duration of survival for those destined to be uncured. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle
2018-02-01
In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.
Long-term observations of cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon rain forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pöhlker, Mira L.; Pöhlker, Christopher; Ditas, Florian; Klimach, Thomas; Hrabe de Angelis, Isabella; Brito, Joel; Carbone, Samara; Cheng, Yafang; Martin, Scot T.; Moran-Zuloaga, Daniel; Rose, Diana; Saturno, Jorge; Su, Hang; Thalman, Ryan; Walter, David; Wang, Jian; Barbosa, Henrique; Artaxo, Paulo; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich
2017-04-01
Size-resolved long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations and hygroscopicity were conducted at the remote Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in the central Amazon Basin over a full seasonal cycle (Mar 2014 - Feb 2015). The measurements provide a climatology of CCN properties characteristic of a remote central Amazonian rain forest site [1,2]. The CCN measurements were continuously cycled through 10 levels of supersaturation (S = 0.11 to 1.10 %) and span the aerosol particle size range from 20 to 245 nm. The particle hygroscopicity exhibits a pronounced size dependence with lower values for the Aitken mode (κAit = 0.14 ± 0.03), higher values for the accumulation mode (κAcc = 0.22 ± 0.05), and an overall mean value of κmean = 0.17 ± 0.06, consistent with high fractions of organic aerosol. The hygroscopicity parameter, κ, exhibits remarkably little temporal variability: no pronounced diurnal cycles, only weak seasonal trends, and few short-term variations during long-range transport events. In contrast, the CCN number concentrations exhibit a pronounced seasonal cycle, tracking the pollution-related seasonality in total aerosol concentration. We find that the variability in the CCN concentrations in the central Amazon is mostly driven by aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution, while variations in aerosol hygroscopicity and chemical composition matter only during a few episodes. For modelling purposes, we compare different approaches of predicting CCN number concentration and present a novel parameterization, which allows accurate CCN predictions based on a small set of input data. In addition, we analyzed the CCN short-term variability in relation to air mass changes as well as aerosol emission and transformation processes. The CCN short term variability is presented for selected case studies, which analyze particularly interesting and characteristic events/conditions in the Amazon
Temporal trends in long-term survival and cure rates in esophageal cancer: a SEER database analysis.
Dubecz, Attila; Gall, Isabell; Solymosi, Norbert; Schweigert, Michael; Peters, Jeffrey H; Feith, Marcus; Stein, Hubert J
2012-02-01
To assess long-term temporal trends in population-based survival and cure rates in patients with esophageal cancer and compare them over the last 3 decades in the United States. We identified 62,523 patients with cancer of the esophagus and the gastric cardia diagnosed between 1973 and 2007 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Long-term cancer-related survival and cure rates were calculated. Stage-by-stage disease-related survival curves of patients diagnosed in different decades were compared. Influence of available variables on survival and cure was analyzed with logistic regression. Ten-year survival was 14% in all patients. Disease-related survival of esophageal cancer improved significantly since 1973. Median survival in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results stages in local, regional, and metastatic cancers improved from 11, 10, and 4 months in the 1970s to 35, 15, and 6 months after 2000. Early stage, age 45 to 65 years at diagnosis and undergoing surgical therapy were independent predictors of 10-year survival. Cure rate improved in all stages during the study period and were 73%, 37%, 12%, and 2% in stages 0, 1, 2, and 4, respectively, after the year 2000. Percentage of patients undergoing surgery improved from 55% in the 1970s to 64% between 2000 and 2007. Proportion of patients diagnosed with in situ and local cancer remains below 30%. Long-term survival with esophageal cancer is poor but survival of local esophageal cancer improved dramatically over the decades. Complete cure of nonmetastatic esophageal cancer seems possible in a growing number of patients. Early diagnosis and treatment are crucial.
SeaWiFS long-term solar diffuser reflectance trend analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Eplee, Robert E., Jr.; Patt, Frederick S.; Barnes, Robert A.; McClain, Charles R.
2006-08-01
The NASA Ocean Biology Processing Group's Calibration and Validation (Cal/Val) Team implemented daily solar calibrations of SeaWiFS to look for step-function changes in the instrument response and has used these calibrations to supplement the monthly lunar calibrations in monitoring the radiometric stability of SeaWiFS during its first year of on-orbit operations. The Team has undertaken an analysis of the mission-long solar calibration time series, with the lunar-derived radiometric corrections over time applied, to assess the long-term degradation of the solar diffuser reflectance over nine years on orbit. The SeaWiFS diffuser is an aluminum plate coated with YB71 paint. The bidirectional reflectance distribution function of the diffuser was not fully characterized before launch, so the Cal/Val Team has implemented a regression of the solar incidence angles and the drift in the node of the satellite's orbit against the diffuser time series to correct for solar incidence angle effects. An exponential function with a time constant of 200 days yields the best fit to the diffuser time series. The decrease in diffuser reflectance over the mission is wavelength-dependent, ranging from 9% in the blue (412 nm) to 5% in the red and near infrared (670-865 nm). The degradation of diffuser reflctance is similar to that observed for SeaWiFS radiometric response itself from lunar calibration time series for bands 1-5 (412-555 nm), though the magnitude of the change is four times larger for the diffuser. Evidently, the same optical degradation process has affected both the telescope optics and the solar diffuser in the blue and green. The Cal/Val Team has developed a methodology for computing the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for SeaWiFS on orbit from the diffuser time series. The on-orbit change in the SNR for each band over the nine-year mission is less than 7%. The on-orbit performance of the SeaWiFS solar diffuser should offer insight into the long-term on-orbit performance
Global Horizontal Irradiance Anomalies in Long Term Series Over India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cony, Marco; Liria, Juan; Weisenberg, Ralf; Serrano, Enrique
2014-05-01
India has a high potential for solar energy applications due to its geographic position within the Sun Belt and the large number of cloudless days in many regions of the country. However, certain regions of India, particularly those largely populated, can exhibit large aerosol loading in the atmosphere as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions that could have a negative feedback in the solar resource potential. This effect, named as solar dimming, has already been observed in India, and in some other regions in the world, by some authors using ground data from the last two decades. The recent interest in the promotion of solar energy applications in India highlights the need of extending and improving the knowledge of the solar radiation resources in this country, since most of the long term measurements available correspond to global horizontal radiation (GHI) and most of them are also located big cities or highly populated areas. In addition, accurate knowledge on the aerosol column quantification and on its dynamical behavior with high spatial resolution is particularly important in the case of India, due to their impact on direct normal irradiation. Long term studies of solar irradiation over India can be performed using monthly means of GHI measurements from the Indian Meteorological Department. Ground data are available from 1964 till today through the World Radiation Data Centre that publish these values in the web. This work shows a long term analysis of GHI using anomalies techniques over ten different sites over India. Besides, techniques of linear trends have been applied for to show the evolution over this period. The analysis of anomalies has also found two periods of different behavior. From 1964 till 1988 the anomalies observed were positive and the last 20 years seems to be a period of negative anomalies. The results exhibit a decreasing trend and negative anomalies confirming thus the darkening effect already reported by solar dimming studies
Holeck, K. T.; Rudstam, L. G.; Watkins, J. M.; Luckey, F. J.; Lantry, J. R.; Lantry, Brian F.; Trometer, E. S.; Koops, M. A.; Johnson, Terry B.
2015-01-01
Phosphorus loading declined between the 1970s and the 1990s, leading to oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario during that time period. Using lake-wide data from the intensive field years of 2003 and 2008 and from available long-term data sets on several trophic state indicators (total phosphorus [TP], soluble reactive silica [SRSi], chlorophyll a and Secchi disc transparency [SDT]), we tested the hypothesis that oligotrophication of the offshore waters of Lake Ontario has continued in the 2000s. Significant differences between 2003 and 2008 include higher spring (April) TP, SRSi, and SDT in 2008, lower summer (July–August) SDT in 2008, higher summer chlorophyll a in 2008, and lower fall (September) TP, SRSi, and chlorophyll a in 2008. The decline in SRSi from spring to summer was greater in 2008 than in 2003. Change point and regression analyses on the long-term data revealed no trend in spring TP since 1996, in summer chlorophyll a since 1994, in spring SDT since 1998, in spring SRSi or SRSi decline from spring to summer since 1999, or in summer SDT since 2001. Neither the comparison of the 2003 and 2008 surveys nor the analysis of the long-term data supported our hypothesis of continued oligotrophication of the offshore of Lake Ontario in the 2000s.
The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.
2017-04-01
Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.
The value of long-term silvicultural research studies
Wayne D. Shepperd; Carleton B. Edminster
1997-01-01
Reductions in research operating budgets and recent trends in research management philosophy have in many instances forced Forest Service scientists to realign their research programs to compete for short-term grants and other sources of funding. This approach may prove detrimental in silviculture, a discipline where long-term research is critical for: (1) research in...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu
2017-04-01
Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those
Evolution of long-term coloration trends with biochemically unstable ingredients
Davis, Sarah N.; Andrews, John E.; Badyaev, Alexander V.
2016-01-01
The evolutionarily persistent and widespread use of carotenoid pigments in animal coloration contrasts with their biochemical instability. Consequently, evolution of carotenoid-based displays should include mechanisms to accommodate or limit pigment degradation. In birds, this could involve two strategies: (i) evolution of a moult immediately prior to the mating season, enabling the use of particularly fast-degrading carotenoids and (ii) evolution of the ability to stabilize dietary carotenoids through metabolic modification or association with feather keratins. Here, we examine evolutionary lability and transitions between the two strategies across 126 species of birds. We report that species that express mostly unmodified, fast-degrading, carotenoids have pre-breeding moults, and a particularly short time between carotenoid deposition and the subsequent breeding season. Species that expressed mostly slow-degrading carotenoids in their plumage accomplished this through increased metabolic modification of dietary carotenoids, and the selective expression of these slow-degrading compounds. In these species, the timing of moult was not associated with carotenoid composition of plumage displays. Using repeated samples from individuals of one species, we found that metabolic modification of dietary carotenoids significantly slowed their degradation between moult and breeding season. Thus, the most complex and colourful ornamentation is likely the most biochemically stable in birds, and depends less on ecological factors, such as moult timing and migration tendency. We suggest that coevolution of metabolic modification, selective expression and biochemical stability of plumage carotenoids enables the use of unstable pigments in long-term evolutionary trends in plumage coloration. PMID:27194697
Evaluation of Surface Flux Parameterizations with Long-Term ARM Observations
Liu, Gang; Liu, Yangang; Endo, Satoshi
2013-02-01
Surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes are critical for atmospheric processes such as clouds and precipitation, and are parameterized in a variety of models ranging from cloud-resolving models to large-scale weather and climate models. However, direct evaluation of the parameterization schemes for these surface fluxes is rare due to limited observations. This study takes advantage of the long-term observations of surface fluxes collected at the Southern Great Plains site by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program to evaluate the six surface flux parameterization schemes commonly used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and threemore » U.S. general circulation models (GCMs). The unprecedented 7-yr-long measurements by the eddy correlation (EC) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) methods permit statistical evaluation of all six parameterizations under a variety of stability conditions, diurnal cycles, and seasonal variations. The statistical analyses show that the momentum flux parameterization agrees best with the EC observations, followed by latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and evaporation ratio/Bowen ratio. The overall performance of the parameterizations depends on atmospheric stability, being best under neutral stratification and deteriorating toward both more stable and more unstable conditions. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that in addition to the parameterization schemes themselves, the discrepancies between observed and parameterized sensible and latent heat fluxes may stem from inadequate use of input variables such as surface temperature, moisture availability, and roughness length. The results demonstrate the need for improving the land surface models and measurements of surface properties, which would permit the evaluation of full land surface models.« less
Two long-term slow slip events around Tokyo Bay found by GNSS observation during 1996-2011
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tanaka, Yoshiyuki; Yabe, Suguru
2017-03-01
Slow slip events (SSEs) with durations ranging from days to more than a decade have been observed in plate subduction zones around the world. In the Kanto district in Japan, several SSEs have been identified based on geodetic observations. However, none of these events have had durations largely exceeding a year. In this study, we show that long-term SSEs with durations longer than 3 years occurred before the year 2000 and after 2007 on the upper interface of the Philippine Sea Plate at depths of 30-40 km. The fault model determined by inversion of global navigation satellite system data is located northeast of Tokyo Bay, where a seismic gap and low seismic wave velocities were detected by seismological observations. Moreover, the acceleration periods of the fault slip corresponded well with increases in the background seismicity for shallower earthquakes. The slip history was also temporally correlated with the long-term shear stress changes governed mainly by non-tidal variations in the ocean bottom pressure. However, the predicted slip from the long-term stress change was too small to reproduce the observed slow slips. To prove the causal relationship between the SSEs and the external stress change, more advanced modeling is necessary to confirm whether such a small slip can trigger an SSE.[Figure not available: see fulltext.
Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer: Long-term Incidence Trends and Prognostic Differences.
Valla, Marit; Vatten, Lars Johan; Engstrøm, Monica Jernberg; Haugen, Olav Anton; Akslen, Lars Andreas; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Hagen, Anne Irene; Ytterhus, Borgny; Bofin, Anna Mary; Opdahl, Signe
2016-12-01
Secular trends in incidence and prognosis of molecular breast cancer subtypes are poorly described. We studied long-term trends in a population of Norwegian women born 1886-1977. A total of 52,949 women were followed for breast cancer incidence, and 1,423 tumors were reclassified into molecular subtypes using IHC and in situ hybridization. We compared incidence rates among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimated age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR), and performed multiple imputations to account for unknown subtype. Prognosis was compared for women diagnosed before 1995 and in 1995 or later, estimating cumulative risk of death and HRs. Between 50 and 69 years of age, incidence rates of Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) were higher among women born in 1929 or later, compared with before 1929 [IRRs 50-54 years; after imputations: 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8-6.9 and 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2-5.2, respectively], with no clear differences for other subtypes. Rates of death were lower in women diagnosed in 1995 or later, compared to before 1995, for Luminal A (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.5), Luminal B (HER2 - ; HR 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), and Basal phenotype (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9). We found a strong secular incidence increase restricted to Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) subtypes, combined with a markedly improved prognosis for these subtypes and for the Basal phenotype. This study documents a clear secular increase in incidence and a concomitant improved prognosis for specific molecular breast cancer subtypes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1625-34. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.
The essential value of long-term experimental data for hydrology and water management
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tetzlaff, D.; Carey, S. K.; McNamara, J. P.; Laudon, H.; Soulsby, C.
2017-12-01
Observations and data from long-term experimental watersheds are the foundation of hydrology as a geoscience. They allow us to benchmark process understanding, observe trends and natural cycles, and are pre-requisites for testing predictive models. Long-term experimental watersheds also are places where new measurement technologies are developed. These studies offer a crucial evidence base for understanding and managing the provision of clean water supplies; predicting and mitigating the effects of floods, and protecting ecosystem services provided by rivers and wetlands. They also show how to manage land and water in an integrated, sustainable way that reduces environmental and economic costs. We present a number of compelling examples illustrating how hydrologic process understanding has been generated through comparing hypotheses to data, and how this understanding has been essential for managing water supplies, floods, and ecosystem services today.
Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines
Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory
2017-01-01
Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.
Reviewing long-term antidepressants can reduce drug burden: a prospective observational cohort study
Johnson, Chris F; Macdonald, Hector J; Atkinson, Pauline; Buchanan, Alasdair I; Downes, Noreen; Dougall, Nadine
2012-01-01
Background Antidepressant prescribing continues to rise. Contributing factors are increased long-term prescribing and possibly the use of higher selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitor (SSRI) doses. Aim To review general practice patients prescribed the same antidepressant long-term (≥2 years) and evaluate prescribing and management pre and post-review. Design and setting Prospective observational cohort study using routine data from 78 urban general practices, Scotland. Method All patients prescribed antidepressants (excluding amitriptyline) for ≥2 years were identified from records November 2009 to March 2010. GPs selected patients for face-to-face review of clinical condition and medication, December 2009 to September 2010. Pre- and post-review data were collected; average antidepressant doses and changes in prescribed daily doses were calculated. Onward referral to support services was recorded. Results 8.6% (33 312/388 656) of all registered patients were prescribed an antidepressant, 47.1% (15 689) were defined as long-term users and 2849 (18.2%) were reviewed. 811 (28.5%) patients reviewed had a change in antidepressant therapy: 7.0% stopped, 12.8% reduced dose, 5.3% increased dose, and 3.4% changed antidepressant, resulting in 9.5% (95% CI = 9.1% to 9.8% P<0.001) reduction in prescribed daily dose and 8.1% reduction in prescribing costs. 6.3% were referred onwards, half to NHS Mental Health Services. Pre-review SSRI doses were 10–30% higher than previously reported. Conclusion Almost half of all people prescribed antidepressants were long-term users. Appropriate reductions in prescribing can be achieved by reviewing patients. Higher SSRI doses may be contributing to current antidepressant growth. PMID:23211181
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arneth, A.; Lloyd, J.; Šantrůčková, H.; Bird, M.; Grigoryev, S.; Kalaschnikov, Y. N.; Gleixner, G.; Schulze, E.-D.
2002-01-01
Twenty tree ring 13C / 12C ratio chronologies from Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) trees were determined from five locations sampled along the Yenisei River, spaced over a total distance of ~1000 km between the cities of Turuhansk (66°N) and Krasnoyarsk (56°N). The transect covered the major part of the natural distribution of Scots pine in the region with median growing season temperatures and precipitation varying from 12.2°C and 218 mm to 14.0°C and 278 mm for Turuhansk and Krasnoyarsk, respectively. A key focus of the study was to investigate the effects of variations in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on long- and short-term variation in photosynthetic 13C discrimination during photosynthesis and the marginal cost of tree water use, as reflected in the differences in the historical records of the 13C / 12C ratio in wood cellulose compared to that of the atmosphere (Δ13Cc). In 17 of the 20 samples, trees Δ13Cc has declined during the last 150 years, particularly so during the second half of the twentieth century. Using a model of stomatal behaviour combined with a process-based photosynthesis model, we deduce that this trend indicates a long-term decrease in canopy stomatal conductance, probably in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This response being observed for most trees along the transect is suggestive of widespread decreases in Δ13Cc and increased water use efficiency for Scots pine in central Siberia over the last century. Overlying short-term variations in Δ13Cc were also accounted for by the model and were related to variations in growing season soil water deficit and atmospheric humidity.
Harned, Douglas A.
1980-01-01
A water-quality study of the Neuse River, N.C., based on data collected during 1956-77 at the U.S. Geological Survey stations at Clayton and Kinston, employs statistical trend analysis techniques that provide a framework for river quality assessment. Overall, water-quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. At Clayton, fecal coliform bacteria and nutrient levels are high, but algae and total-organic-carbon data indicate water-quality improvement in recent years, due probably to a new wastewater treatment plant located downstream from Raleigh, N.C. Pollution was determined by subtracting estimated natural loads of constituents from measured total loads. Pollution makes up approximately 50% of the total dissolved material transported by the Neuse. Two different data transformation methods allowed trends to be identified in constituent concentrations. The methods recomputed the concentrations as if they were determined at a constant discharge over the period of record. Although little change since 1956 can be seen in most constituents, large changes in some constituents, such as increases in potassium and sulfate, indicate that the water quality of the Neuse River has noticeably deteriorated. Increases in sulfate are probably largely due to increased long-term inputs of sulfur compounds from airborne pollutants. (USGS)
Long-Term Care for People with Development Disabilities: A Critical Analysis.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Palley, Howard A.; Van Hollen, Valerie
2000-01-01
Explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. Reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area.…
Gafoor, V Abdul; Smita, B; Jose, James
2017-01-01
Idiopathic intracranial hypertension (IIH) is increased intracranial pressure (ICP) with normal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) contents, in the absence of an intracranial mass, hydrocephalus, or other identifiable causes. The current knowledge of the treatment outcome of IIH is limited, and the data on the natural history of this entity are scant. The objective of the study is to study the treatment response of IIH by serially measuring the CSF opening pressure and to delineate the factors influencing the same. A prospective observational study in a cohort of fifty patients with IIH in whom CSF opening pressure was serially measured at pre-specified intervals. The mean CSF opening pressure at baseline was 302.4 ± 51.69 mm of H 2 O (range: 220-410). Even though a higher body mass index (BMI) showed a trend toward a higher CSF opening pressure, the association was not significant ( P = 0.168). However, the age of the patient had a significant negative correlation with the CSF pressure ( P = 0.006). The maximum reduction in CSF pressure occurred in the first 3 months of treatment, and thereafter it plateaued. Remission was attained in 12 (24%) patients. BMI had the strongest association with remission ( P = 0.001). In patients with IIH, treatment response is strongly related to BMI. However, patients with normal BMI are also shown to relapse and hence should have continuous, long-term follow-up. The reduction in CSF pressure attained in the first 3 months could reflect the long-term response to treatment.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dupont, N.; Bagøien, E.; Melle, W.
2016-02-01
Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea in terms of biomass, playing a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This study analyses the long-term trend of a 17-year time series (1996-2012) on abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus in the Atlantic water-mass of the southern Norwegian Sea during spring. The long-term trend in spring abundance was assessed by using Generalised Additive Models, while simultaneously accounting for both general population development and inter-annual variation in population development throughout the study period. In one model, we focus on inter-annual changes in timing of the Calanus spring seasonal development by including Mean Stage Composition as a measure for state of population development. Following a short increase during the years 1996 to 2000, the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus decreased strongly until about the year 2010. For the two last years of the studied period, 2011-2012, increasing population abundances are suggested but with less certainty. The model results suggest that the analysis is capturing the G0 generation, displaying a peak for the adults in about mid-April. Inter-annual differences in spring seasonal development, with the peak of adults shifting towards earlier in the season as well as a shorter generation time are suggested. Considering the importance of Calanus finmarchicus as food for planktivorous predators in the Norwegian Sea, our time series analysis suggests relevant changes both with respect to the spring abundance and timing of this food source. The next step is to relate variation in the Calanus time series to environmental factors with special emphasis on climatic drivers.
Long-term trends in breeding birds in an old-growth Adirondack forest and the surrounding region
McNulty, S.A.; Droege, S.; Masters, R.D.
2008-01-01
Breeding bird populations were sampled between 1954 and 1963, and 1990 and 2000 in an old-growth forest, the Natural Area of Huntington Wildlife Forest (HWF), in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. Trends were compared with data from regional North American Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) and from a forest plot at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Trends for 22 species in the HWF Natural Area were negative, eight were positive, and one was zero; 20 were significant. Fifteen of 17 long-distance migrants declined, whereas 7 of 14 short-distance migrants and permanent residents declined. Most (74%) HWF Natural Area species, despite differences in sampling periods and local habitat features, matched in sign of trend when compared to Adirondack BBS routes, 61% matched northeastern BBS routes, and 71% matched eastern United States BBS routes, while 66% matched Hubbard Brook species. The agreement in population trends suggests that forest interior birds, especially long-distance migrants, are affected more by regional than local factors. The analysis indicated that bird trends generated from BBS routes may not be as biased toward roads as previously suggested.
Harned, Doughlas A.
1982-01-01
Interpretation of water-quality data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Neuse River, North Carolina, has identified water-quality variations, charactrized the current condition of the river in reference to water-quality standards, estimated the degree of pollution caused by man, and evaluated long-term trends in concentrations of major dissolved constituents. Two sampling stations, Neuse River near Clayton (02087500) and Neuse River at Kinston (02089500) have more than 12 years of water-quality data collected during the period from 1955 to 1978. The Clayton station provides information on the upper fourth of the basin (1,129 mi 2) which includes several urbanized areas, including Raleigh, N.C., and part of Durham, N.C. The Kinston station provides information from the predominantly rural midsection of the basin (2,690 mi2). A network of temporary stations on small rural streams in the Neuse River and adjacent basins provide an estimate of baseline or es- sentially unpolluted water quality. Overall, the water quality of the Neuse River is satisfactory for most uses. However, dissolved-oxygen, iron, and manganese concentrations, pH, and bacterial concentrations often reach undesirable levels. Concentrations of cadmium, and lead also periodically peak at or above criterion levels for domestic water supply sources. Nutrient levels are generally high enough to allow rich algal growth. Sediment concentrations in the Neuse are high in comparison to pristine streams, however, the impacts of these high levels are difficult to quantify. Sediment and nutrient concentrations peak on the leading edge of flood discharges at Clayton. At Kinston, however, the discharge and sediment concentration peak almost simultaneously. Changes in algal dominance, from genera usually associated with organically enriched waters to genera that are less tolerant to organic enrichment, indicate improvement in water qualiy of the Neuse since 1973. These changes, along with a reduction
Fuchs, Erich; Gruber, Christian; Reitmaier, Tobias; Sick, Bernhard
2009-09-01
Neural networks are often used to process temporal information, i.e., any kind of information related to time series. In many cases, time series contain short-term and long-term trends or behavior. This paper presents a new approach to capture temporal information with various reference periods simultaneously. A least squares approximation of the time series with orthogonal polynomials will be used to describe short-term trends contained in a signal (average, increase, curvature, etc.). Long-term behavior will be modeled with the tapped delay lines of a time-delay neural network (TDNN). This network takes the coefficients of the orthogonal expansion of the approximating polynomial as inputs such considering short-term and long-term information efficiently. The advantages of the method will be demonstrated by means of artificial data and two real-world application examples, the prediction of the user number in a computer network and online tool wear classification in turning.
Impacts of Wildfires on Long-term Land Surface Phenology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, J.; Zhang, X.
2016-12-01
Land surface phenology (LSP) detected from satellite data characterizes seasonal dynamics of vegetation communities within a moderate or coarse resolution pixel. Its long-term variation has been widely used to indicate the biological responses to climate changes. However, few studies have focused on the influence of land disturbance on LSP variations. The wildfire is one of the most important drivers of land disturbances across the world, which shows an increasing trend during past decades. To explore the wildfire impacts on LSP, we analyzed post-fire and pre-fire LSP in two forest fire events that are Hayman Fire occurred in 2002 and Mason Fire occurred in 2005 in Colorado. Specifically, we first generated a two band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from MODIS daily surface reflectance product (MOD09GQ) at a spatial resolution of 250 m from 2001-2014. The time series of daily EVI2 was then used to detect the start of growing season (SOS) by applying the LSP detection algorithm based on a hybrid piecewise logistic model (HPLM-LSPD). The SOS was further separated for four levels of burn severity obtained from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) maps for each fire event. The long-term SOS in the burn scars was finally deviated from surrounding areas based on land cover types. Results show that forests were mainly converted to shrubs in both fire events with some grasslands in Hayman. On average, SOS in Hayman burn scar area was advanced 11 days relative to surrounding region while it was delayed 9 days in Mason fire. The deviation also varied with the burn severity spatially. Moreover, the long-term SOS trend in the local area from 2001-2014 was significantly different with and without considerations of the fire influences. This study demonstrates that the long-term LSP SOS trend is significantly influenced by land disturbances in a local and regional scales.
Globalization, women's migration, and the long-term-care workforce.
Browne, Colette V; Braun, Kathryn L
2008-02-01
With the aging of the world's population comes the rising need for qualified direct long-term-care (DLTC) workers (i.e., those who provide personal care to frail and disabled older adults). Developed nations are increasingly turning to immigrant women to fill these needs. In this article, we examine the impact of three global trends-population aging, globalization, and women's migration-on the supply and demand for DLTC workers in the United States. Following an overview of these trends, we identify three areas with embedded social justice issues that are shaping the DLTC workforce in the United States, with a specific focus on immigrant workers in these settings. These include world poverty and economic inequalities, the feminization and colorization of labor (especially in long-term care), and empowerment and women's rights. We conclude with a discussion of the contradictory effects that both population aging and globalization have on immigrant women, source countries, and the long-term-care workforce in the United States. We raise a number of policy, practice, and research implications and questions. For policy makers and long-term-care administrators in receiver nations such as the United States, the meeting of DLTC worker needs with immigrants may result in greater access to needed employees but also in the continued devaluation of eldercare as a profession. Source (supply) nations must balance the real and potential economic benefits of remittances from women who migrate for labor with the negative consequences of disrupting family care traditions and draining the long-term-care workforce of those countries.
Planning long-term vegetation studies at landscape scales
Stohlgren, Thomas J.
1995-01-01
Long-term ecological research is receiving more attention now than ever before. Two recent books, Long-term Studies in Ecology: Approaches and Alternatives, edited by Gene Likens (1989), and Long-term Ecological Research: An International Perspective, edited by Paul Risser (1991), prompt the question, “Why are these books so thin?” Except for data from paleoecological, retrospective studies (see below), there are exceptionally few long-term data sets in terrestrial ecology (Strayer et al. 1986; Tilman 1989; this volume). In a sample of 749 papers published in Ecology, Tilman (1989) found that only 1.7% of the studies lasted at least five field seasons. Only one chapter in each of the review books dealt specifically with expanding both the temporal and the spatial scales of ecological research (Berkowitz et al. 1989; Magnuson et al. 1991). Judging by the growing number of landscape-scale long-term studies, however, such as the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program (Callahan 1991), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP; Palmer et al. 1991), the U.S. Army’s Land Condition-Trend Analysis (LCTA) Program (Diersing et al. 1992), and various agencies’ global change research programs (CEES 1993), there is a growing interest to expand ecological research both temporally and spatially.
Long-term effects of climate and land cover change on freshwater provision in the tropical Andes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Molina, A.; Vanacker, V.; Brisson, E.; Mora, D.; Balthazar, V.
2015-06-01
Andean headwater catchments play a pivotal role to supply fresh water for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes. In this paper, we assess multi-decadal change in freshwater provision based on long time series (1974-2008) of hydrometeorological data and land cover reconstructions for a 282 km2 catchment located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished: (1) rapid decline of native vegetation in montane forest and páramo ecosystems in ~1/5 or 20% of the catchment area, (2) expansion of agricultural land by 14% of the catchment area, (3) afforestation of 12% of native páramo grasslands with exotic tree species in recent years. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow that exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term climate change but very likely result from direct anthropogenic disturbances after land cover change. Partial water budgets for montane cloud forest and páramo ecosystems suggest that the strongest changes in evaporative water losses are observed in páramo ecosystems, where progressive colonization and afforestation of high alpine grasslands leads to a strong increase in transpiration losses.
Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.
2012-01-01
Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tyralis, Hristos; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Tzouka, Katerina; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris
2017-04-01
The long-term persistence (LTP), else known in hydrological science as the Hurst phenomenon, is a behaviour observed in geophysical processes in which wet years or dry years are clustered to respective long time periods. A common practice for evaluating the presence of the LTP is to model the geophysical time series with the Hurst-Kolmogorov process (HKp) and estimate its Hurst parameter H where high values of H indicate strong LTP. We estimate H of the mean annual precipitation using instrumental data from approximately 1 500 stations which cover a big area of the earth's surface and span from 1916 to 2015. We regress the H estimates of all stations on their spatial and regional characteristics (i.e. their location, elevation and Köppen-Geiger climate class) using a random forest algorithm. Furthermore, we apply the Mann-Kendall test under the LTP assumption (MKt-LTP) to all time series to assess the significance of observed trends of the mean annual precipitation. To summarize the results, the LTP seems to depend mostly on the location of the stations, while the predictive value of the fitted regression model is good. Thus when investigating for LTP properties we recommend that the local characteristics should be considered. Additionally, the application of the MKt-LTP suggests that no significant monotonic trend can characterize the global precipitation. Dominant positive significant trends are observed mostly in main climate type D (snow), while in the other climate types the percentage of stations with positive significant trends was approximately equal to that of negative significant trends. Furthermore, 50% of all stations do not exhibit significant trends at all.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam
2017-04-01
Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.
An European framework for the long term preservation of EO data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forcada, E.; Albani, M.; Beruti, V.
2009-04-01
The need for accessing historical Earth Observation (EO) data series strongly increased in the last ten years, mainly for long term science and environmental monitoring applications. This trend is likely to increase even more in the future in particular for the growing interest on global change monitoring that requires data time-series spanning 20 years and more, and for the need to support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Content of EO data archives is extending from a few years to decades and their scientific value is continuously increasing hence is well recognized the need to preserve them without time limitation and to keep the archived EO data well accessible and exploitable as they constitute a humankind asset. The large amount of new Earth Observation missions upcoming in the next years will moreover lead to a major increase of EO data volumes. This fact, together with the increased demands from the scientific user community, marks a challenge for Earth Observation satellite operators, Space Agencies and EO data providers regarding coherent data preservation and optimum availability and accessibility of the different data products. Traditionally in Europe, there has been poor cooperation in this field with no common approach for long term preservation and access to EO space data even if cooperation and sharing are key aspects to be pursued for the benefit of the user community. Single organizations have difficulties to afford data preservation in the long term that calls for the need of optimising costs and efforts, identifying commonalities. In 2006, the European Space Agency (ESA) initiated a coordination action to share among all the European (and Canadian) stakeholders a common approach to the long term preservation of Earth Observation data. During 2007, the Agency started consultations with its Member States presenting an EO Long Term Data Preservation (LTDP) strategy targeting the preservation of all European
Chaudhuri, Sriroop; Ale, Srinivasulu
2014-08-15
Rapid groundwater depletion has raised grave concerns about sustainable development in many parts of Texas, as well as in other parts of the world. Previous hydrologic investigations on groundwater levels in Texas were conducted mostly on aquifer-specific basis, and hence lacked state-wide panoramic view. The aim of this study was to present a qualitative overview of long-term (1930-2010) trends in groundwater levels in Texas and identify spatial patterns by applying different statistical (boxplots, correlation-regression, hierarchical cluster analysis) and geospatial techniques (Moran's I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association) on 136,930 groundwater level observations from Texas Water Development Board's database. State-wide decadal median water-levels declined from about 14 m from land surface in the 1930s to about 36 m in the 2000s. Number of counties with deeper median water-levels (water-level depth>100 m) increased from 2 to 13 between 1930s and 2000s, accompanied by a decrease in number of counties having shallower median water-levels (water-level depth<25 m) from 134 to 113. Water-level declines across Texas, however, mostly followed logarithmic trends marked by leveling-off phenomena in recent times. Assessment of water-levels by Groundwater Management Areas (GMA), management units created to address groundwater depletion issues, indicated hotspots of deep water-levels in Texas Panhandle and GMA 8 since the 1960s. Contrasting patterns in water use, landcover, geology and soil properties distinguished Texas Panhandle from GMA 8. Irrigated agriculture is the major cause of depletion in the Texas Panhandle as compared to increasing urbanization in GMA 8. Overall our study indicated that use of robust spatial and statistical methods can reveal important details about the trends in water-level changes and shed lights on the associated factors. Due to very generic nature, techniques used in this study can also be applied to other areas with similar eco
Bunnell, David B.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Croley, Thomas E.
2006-01-01
Long-term population trends are generally explained by factors extrinsic (e.g., climate, predation) rather than intrinsic (e.g., genetics, maternal effects) to the population. We sought to understand the long-term population dynamics of an important native Lake Michigan prey fish, the bloaterCoregonus hoyi. Over a 38-year time series, three 10- to 15-year phases occurred (poor, excellent, and then poor recruitment) without high interannual variability within a particular phase. We used dynamic linear models to determine whether extrinsic (winter and spring temperature, alewife predator densities) or intrinsic factors (population egg production, adult condition, adult sex ratio) explained variation in recruitment. Models that included population egg production, sex ratio, winter and spring temperature, and adult bloater condition explained the most variation. Of these variables, sex ratio, which ranged from 47% to 97% female across the time series, consistently had the greatest effect: recruitment declined with female predominance. Including biomass of adult alewife predators in the models did not explain additional variation. Overall our results indicated that bloater recruitment is linked to its sex ratio, but understanding the underlying mechanisms will require additional efforts.
Banking: financing trends in an acquisitive health care market--focus on long-term care.
Gordon, L J; Bressler, A
1998-01-01
This article reviews the long-term care sector of the health care industry, particularly the factors driving sector consolidation and, through the use of four transactions as a platform, discusses key credit issues and risks facing long-term care companies.
Detecting long-term temporal trends in sediment-bound trace metals from urbanised catchments.
Sharley, David J; Sharp, Simon M; Bourgues, Sophie; Pettigrove, Vincent J
2016-12-01
The shift from rural lifestyles to urban living has dramatically altered the way humans interact and live across the globe. With over 50% of the world's populations living within cities, and significant increases expected over the next 50 years, it is critical that changes to social, economic and environmental sustainability of cities globally be implicit. Protecting and enhancing aquatic ecosystems, which provide important ecosystem services, is challenging. A number of factors influence pollutants in urban waterways including changes in land-use, impervious area and stormwater discharges, with sediment-bound pollution a major issue worldwide. This work aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of trace metals in freshwater sediments from six urbanised catchment over a 30-year period. It provides an estimate of pollution using a geoaccumulation index and examines possible toxicity using a probable effect concentration quotient (mPECq). Results showed significant temporal changes in metal concentrations over time, with lead generally decreasing in all but one of the sites, attributed to significant changes in environmental policies and the active elimination of lead products. Temporal changes in other metals were variable and likely dependent on site-specific factors. While it is likely that diffuse pollution is driving changes in zinc, for metals such as lead, chromium and copper, it is likely that watershed landuse and/or point sources are more important. The results clearly indicated that changes to watershed landuse, environmental policy and pollution abatement programs are all driving changes in sediment quality, highlighting the utility of long-term sediment monitoring for assessment of urban watershed condition. While this study has demonstrated the utility of detecting long-term changes in metal concentrations, this approach could easily be adapted to detect and assess future trends in other hydrophobic contaminants and emerging chemicals
A systematic review of global publication trends regarding long-term outcomes of ADHD.
Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan
2011-01-01
There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This
A Systematic Review of Global Publication Trends Regarding Long-Term Outcomes of ADHD
Hodgkins, Paul; Arnold, L. Eugene; Shaw, Monica; Caci, Hervé; Kahle, Jennifer; Woods, Alisa G; Young, Susan
2012-01-01
There is increased global recognition of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) as a serious medical condition with long-term consequences. Although originally conceived of as a childhood disorder, ADHD is being increasingly recognized in adults. Individual geographic regions may have specific interests and objectives for the study of ADHD. A systematic review of long-term outcomes (LTOs) in ADHD was conducted to evaluate research on ADHD LTOs on a global scale. Studies that were at least 2 years in duration were examined. A total of 351 studies were identified in the final analysis. We identified nine outcomes of interest and classified studies by specific geographical regions, age groups studied and study design by region and over time. Published studies of LTOs in ADHD have increased in all geographical regions over the past three decades, with a peak number of 42 publications in 2008. This rise in publications on ADHD LTOs may reflect a rise in global interest and recognition of consequences and impairment associated with ADHD. Although many world regions have published on ADHD LTOs, the majority of studies have emerged from the US and Canada, followed by Europe. While investigators in the US and Canada were predominantly interested in drug addiction as a LTO, European researchers were more interested in antisocial behavior, and Eastern Asian investigators focused on both of these LTOs as well as self-esteem. Geographical differences in the focus of ADHD LTO studies may reflect regional variations in cultural values. Proportionally fewer prospective longitudinal studies and proportionally more retrospective and cross-sectional studies have been published in more recent decades. Finally, more studies focusing on ADHD in adolescents and adults have been conducted in recent years, and particularly adolescents in Eastern Asia. These changes in basic study design may reflect an increase in the recognition that ADHD is a lifetime chronic disorder. This
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson, B.; Herman, J. D.
2017-12-01
Long-term water supply planning is challenged by highly uncertain streamflow projections across climate models and emissions scenarios. Recent studies have devised infrastructure and policy responses that can withstand or adapt to an ensemble of scenarios, particularly those outside the envelope of historical variability. An important aspect of this process is whether the proposed thresholds for adaptation (i.e., observations that trigger a response) truly represent a trend toward future change. Here we propose an approach to connect observations of annual mean streamflow with long-term projections by filtering GCM-based streamflow ensembles. Visualizations are developed to investigate whether observed changes in mean annual streamflow can be linked to projected changes in end-of-century mean and variance relative to the full ensemble. A key focus is identifying thresholds that point to significant long-term changes in the distribution of streamflow (+/- 20% or greater) as early as possible. The analysis is performed on 87 sites in the Western United States, using streamflow ensembles through 2100 from a recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Results focus on three primary questions: (1) how many years of observed data are needed to identify the most extreme scenarios, and by what year can they be identified? (2) are these features different between sites? and (3) using this analysis, do observed flows to date at each site point to significant long-term changes? This study addresses the challenge of severe uncertainty in long-term streamflow projections by identifying key thresholds that can be observed to support water supply planning.
[Long-term psychiatric hospitalizations].
Plancke, L; Amariei, A
2017-02-01
Long-term hospitalizations in psychiatry raise the question of desocialisation of the patients and the inherent costs. Individual indicators were extracted from a medical administrative database containing full-time psychiatric hospitalizations for the period 2011-2013 of people over 16 years old living in the French region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais. We calculated the proportion of people who had experienced a hospitalization with a duration of 292 days or more during the study period. A bivariate analysis was conducted, then ecological data (level of health-care offer, the deprivation index and the size of the municipalities of residence) were included into a multilevel regression model in order to identify the factors significantly related to variability of long-term hospitalization rates. Among hospitalized individuals in psychiatry, 2.6% had had at least one hospitalization of 292 days or more during the observation period; the number of days in long-term hospitalization represented 22.5% of the total of days of full-time hospitalization in psychiatry. The bivariate analysis revealed that seniority in the psychiatric system was strongly correlated with long hospitalization rates. In the multivariate analysis, the individual indicators the most related to an increased risk of long-term hospitalization were: total lack of autonomy (OR=9.0; 95% CI: 6.7-12.2; P<001); diagnoses of psychological development disorders (OR=9.7; CI95%: 4.5-20.6; P<.001); mental retardation (OR=4.5; CI95%: 2.5-8.2; P<.001): schizophrenia (OR=3.0; CI95%: 1.7-5.2; P<.001); compulsory hospitalization (OR=1.7; CI95%: 1.4-2.1; P<.001); having experienced therapeutic isolation (OR=1.8; CI95%: 1.5-2.1; P<.001). Variations of long-term hospitalization rates depending on the type of establishment were very high, but the density of hospital beds or intensity of ambulatory activity services were not significantly linked to long-term hospitalization. The inhabitants of small urban units had
Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago
D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket
2013-01-01
Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180
Morway, Eric D.; Thodal, Carl E.; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark C.
2017-01-01
The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of −0.85% and −1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries.
Short and long term chemical and isotopic variations of Lake Trasimeno (Italy)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frondini, Francesco; Dragoni, Walter; Chiodini, Giovanni; Caliro, Stefano; Cardellini, Carlo; Donnini, Marco; Morgantini, Nicola
2016-04-01
Lake Trasimeno, located in Umbria (central Italy), is a shallow lake of a remarkable naturalistic interest and a significant resource for the economy of the region (Ludovisi and Gaino, 2010; Dragoni, 2004). The Lake Trasimeno has an average area of about 124 km2 with a maximum depth of approximately 5.5 m, has no natural outlet and the volume of water stored is strictly linked to rainfall. In order to limit water level variations in 1898 an efficient outlet was built. At present the water exits from the Lake only when the level reaches a fixed threshold above the outlet channel, so during periods with low precipitation the evaporation becomes the most relevant output from the lake. For instance, between 1989 and 2013 the outlet did not work, and the maximum depth of the lake was reduced to little more than three meters. In the framework of climate change, it is important to understand the changes that could affect Lake Trasimeno in the near future. To this aim it is necessary to individuate the long term trends of the hydrologic, chemical and physical characteristics of the Trasimeno water and distinguish them from the short term variations. At the present it is available a long record of hydrologic data allowing reliable studies on quantitative variations at Lake Trasimeno (Dragoni et al., 2015; Dragoni et al., 2012; Ludovisi and Gaino, 2010), but the definition of the chemical and isotopic trends of lake water it is still a problematic task. On the basis of new chemical and isotopic data, collected from 2006 to 2015, it is possible to observe (i) short term and/or very short (seasonal) variations in temperature, salinity and saturation state with respect to carbonate minerals and a long term trends in isotopic composition of water and total load of mobile species (Cl, Na). The short term variations readily respond to the precipitation regime and are strongly related to lake level; the long term trend is probably related to the progressive increase of near
Two Long-Term Intermittent Pulsars Discovered in the PALFA Survey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lyne, A. G.; Stappers, B. W.; Freire, P. C. C.; Hessels, J. W. T.; Kaspi, V. M.; Allen, B.; Bogdanov, S.; Brazier, A.; Camilo, F.; Cardoso, F.; Chatterjee, S.; Cordes, J. M.; Crawford, F.; Deneva, J. S.; Ferdman, R. D.; Jenet, F. A.; Knispel, B.; Lazarus, P.; van Leeuwen, J.; Lynch, R.; Madsen, E.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Parent, E.; Patel, C.; Ransom, S. M.; Scholz, P.; Seymour, A.; Siemens, X.; Spitler, L. G.; Stairs, I. H.; Stovall, K.; Swiggum, J.; Wharton, R. S.; Zhu, W. W.
2017-01-01
We report the discovery of two long-term intermittent radio pulsars in the ongoing Pulsar Arecibo L-Band Feed Array survey. Following discovery with the Arecibo Telescope, extended observations of these pulsars over several years at Jodrell Bank Observatory have revealed the details of their rotation and radiation properties. PSRs J1910+0517 and J1929+1357 show long-term extreme bimodal intermittency, switching between active (ON) and inactive (OFF) emission states and indicating the presence of a large, hitherto unrecognized underlying population of such objects. For PSR J1929+1357, the initial duty cycle was fON = 0.008, but two years later, this changed quite abruptly to fON = 0.16. This is the first time that a significant evolution in the activity of an intermittent pulsar has been seen, and we show that the spin-down rate of the pulsar is proportional to the activity. The spin-down rate of PSR J1929+1357 is increased by a factor of 1.8 when it is in active mode, similar to the increase seen in the other three known long-term intermittent pulsars. These discoveries increase the number of known pulsars displaying long-term intermittency to five. These five objects display a remarkably narrow range of spin-down power (\\dot{E} ˜ {10}32 {erg} {{{s}}}-1) and accelerating potential above their polar caps. If confirmed by further discoveries, this trend might be important for understanding the physical mechanisms that cause intermittency.
Human Land-Use Practices Lead to Global Long-Term Increases in Photosynthetic Capacity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mueller, Thomas; Tucker, Compton J.; Dressler, Gunnar; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Leimgruber, Peter; Dubayah, Ralph O.; Hurtt, George C.; Boehning-Gaese, Katrin; Fagan, William F.
2014-01-01
Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth's human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.
2015-04-01
Owing to rapid development and subsequent enormous increase in energy consumption/fossil fuel use, anthropogenic emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides in China and other Asian countries surpass those in North America and Europe since mid-1990s. Consequently, regional air pollution has become an issue for the most of developing countries in North-East Asia. Since 1998, the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, http://www.eanet.asia/) provides constant monitoring of the air quality and precipitation (including gaseous and particulate phase chemistry) in 13 countries of the region. The measurements are conducted at 45 rural and remote stations using both filter pack sampling techniques and automatic monitoring equipment. In this study we present a comprehensive trend analysis of the long-term (last 15 years) air pollution monitoring data from selected EANET monitoring sites. Using several statistical approaches, we estimate the quality of the data and perform distribution tests, single out special events (detect outliers) and calculate an ensemble of trends (monthly, seasonal, long-term and quartile) and their statistical significance for a suite of observed compounds. Based on this analysis, we further estimate the statistics and overall significance of the observed temporal dynamics for each pollutant. Ultimately we derive more than 20 trend estimates for a total of up to 12 gas-phase and particulate compounds for each station. Our calculations ascertain that about half of the trends (either negative or positive) observed at the EANET stations in Russia, Korea and Japan are significant. Whilst an increase in SO2, HCl, Cl-, NO3 (except for the stations in Russia) concentrations is distinct, small or insignificant trends are reckoned for HNO3-. A marked decrease in K+ content is seen at all regarded stations. We commonly find station-wise correlation for the trends of the remaining compounds, and for several species we conclude a general spatial
Long-term ozone and temperature correlations above SANAE, Antarctica
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bodeker, Gregory E.; Scourfield, Malcolm W. J.
1994-01-01
A significant decline in Antarctic total column ozone and upper air temperatures has been observed in recent years. Furthermore, high correlations between monthly mean values of ozone and stratospheric temperature have been measured above Syowa, Antarctica. For the observations reported here, data from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite have been used to examine the 1980 to 1990 decrease in total column ozone above the South African Antarctic base of SANAE (70 deg 18 min S, 2 deg 21 min W). The cooling of the Antarctic stratosphere above SANAE during this period has been investigated by examining upper air temperatures at the 150, 100, 70, 50, and 30 hPa levels obtained from daily radiosonde balloon launches. Furthermore, these two data sets have been used to examine long-term, medium-term, and short-term correlations between total column ozone and the temperatures at each of the five levels. The trend in SANAE total column ozone has been found to be -4.9 DU/year, while upper air temperatures have been found to decrease at around 0.3 C/year. An analysis of monthly average SANAE total column ozone has shown the decrease to be most severe during the month of September with a trend of -7.7 DU/year. A strong correlation (r(exp 2) = 0.92) has been found between yearly average total column ozone and temperature at the 100 hPa level. Daily ozone and temperature correlations show high values from September to November, at a time when the polar vortex is breaking down.
Long-term trends in restoration and associated land treatments in the southwestern United States
Copeland, Stella M.; Munson, Seth M.; Pilliod, David S.; Welty, Justin L.; Bradford, John B.; Butterfield, Bradley J.
2018-01-01
Restoration treatments, such as revegetation with seeding or invasive species removal, have been applied on U.S. public lands for decades. Temporal trends in these management actions have not been extensively summarized previously, particularly in the southwestern United States where invasive plant species, drought, and fire have altered dryland ecosystems. We assessed long-term (1940–2010) trends in restoration using approximately 4,000 vegetation treatments conducted on Bureau of Land Management lands across the southwestern United States. We found that since 1940, the proportions of seeding and vegetation/soil manipulation (e.g. vegetation removal or plowing) treatments have declined, while the proportions of prescribed burn and invasive species treatments have increased. Treatments in pinyon-juniper and big sagebrush communities declined in comparison to treatments in desert scrub, creosote bush, and riparian woodland communities. Restoration-focused treatment objectives increased relative to resource extraction objectives. Species richness and proportion of native species used in seeding treatments also increased. Inflation-adjusted costs per area rose 750% for vegetation/soil manipulation, 600% for seeding, and 400% for prescribed burn treatments in the decades from 1981 to 2010. Seeding treatments were implemented in warmer and drier years when compared to the climate conditions of the entire study period and warmer and wetter years relative to several years before and after the treatment. These results suggest that treatments over a 70-year period on public lands in the southwestern United States are shifting toward restoration practices that are increasingly large, expensive, and related to fire and invasive species control.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Derwent, Richard G.; Manning, Alistair J.; Simmonds, Peter G.; Spain, T. Gerard; O'Doherty, Simon
2018-04-01
Observations of surface ozone, O3, have been made at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the North Atlantic Ocean coastline of Ireland over a 30-year period from April 1987 through to April 2017. Using meteorological analyses and a sophisticated Lagrangian dispersion model, the hourly observations have been sorted by air mass histories to separate out the observations for northern hemisphere mid-latitude baseline air masses. Monthly average baseline levels showed a pronounced seasonal cycle with spring maxima and summer minima. Baseline levels have shown an increase during the 1980s and 1990s which has been stronger in the winter and spring and weaker in the summer. The rate of this increase has slowed to the extent that baseline levels have been relatively constant through the 2000s and started to decline in 2010s. The unsorted O3 data has shown different long-term trends from the baseline data because of the influence of European regional NOx and VOC emissions which have reduced wintertime O3 levels below the baseline levels and enhanced summertime O3 levels above them. Episodic peak O3 levels have declined steadily during the study period but 50 ppb 1 h exceedances are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
Long-term care for people with developmental disabilities: a critical analysis.
Palley, H A; Van Hollen, V
2000-08-01
This article explores how the trends toward long-term community care affecting people with developmental disabilities developed. Appropriateness of care and quality of life issues are discussed. The article also reviews the development of long-term care for frail and disabled elderly people and explores the arguments for a continuum of care that have developed in this area. The authors conclude that future policies with respect to meeting long-term care needs for people with developmental disabilities must be addressed flexibly on an individual basis, related to individual needs, and must provide a continuum of care services.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Soni, Kirti; Kapoor, Sangeeta; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.
2014-11-01
Long-term observations and modeling of aerosol loading over the Indo-Gangetic plains (IGP), the Indian desert region and Himalayan slopes are analyzed in the present study. The Box-Jenkins popular ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) model was applied to simulate the monthly-mean Terra MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD550 nm) over eight sites in the region covering a period of about 13 years (March 2000-May 2012). The autocorrelation structure has been analyzed indicating a deterministic pattern in the time series that it regains its structure every 24 month period. The ARIMA models namely ARIMA(2,0,12), ARIMA(1,0,6), ARIMA(3,0,0), ARIMA(2,0,13) ARIMA(0,0,12), ARIMA(2,0,2), ARIMA(1,0,12) and ARIMA(0,0,1) have been developed as the most suitable for simulating and forecasting the monthly-mean AOD over the eight selected locations. The Stationary R-squared, R-squared, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Normalized BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) are used to test the validity and applicability of the developed ARIMA models revealing adequate accuracy in the model performance. The values of Hurst Exponent, Fractal Dimension and Predictability Index for AODs are about 0.5, 1.5 and 0, respectively, suggesting that the AODs in all sites follow the Brownian time-series motion (true random walk). High AOD values (> 0.7) are observed over the industrialized and densely-populated IGP sites associated with low ones over the foothills/slopes of the Himalayas. The trends in AOD during the ~ 13-year period differentiates depending on season and site. During post-monsoon and winter accumulation of aerosols and increasing trends are shown over IGP sites, which are neutralized in pre-monsoon and become slightly negative in monsoon. The AOD over the Himalayan sites does not exhibit any significant trend and seems to be practically unaffected by the aerosol built-up over IGP.
WRIGHT, ST; PETOUMENOS, K; BOYD, M; CARR, A; DOWNING, S; O’CONNOR, CC; GROTOWSKI, M; LAW, MG
2012-01-01
Background The aim of this analysis is to describe the long-term changes in CD4 cell counts beyond 5 years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). If natural ageing leads to a long-term decline in the immune system via low-grade chronic immune activation/inflammation, then one might expect to see a greater or earlier decline in CD4 counts in older HIV-positive patients with increasing duration of cART. Methods Retrospective and prospective data were examined from long-term virologically stable HIV-positive adults from the Australian HIV Observational Database. We estimated mean CD4 cell counts changes following the completion of 5 years of cART using linear mixed models. Results A total of 37,916 CD4 measurements were observed for 892 patients over a combined total of 9,753 patient years. Older patients (>50 years) at cART initiation had estimated mean(95% confidence interval) change in CD4 counts by Year-5 CD4 count strata (<500, 501–750 and >750 cells/μL) of 14(7 to 21), 3(−5 to 11) and −6(−17 to 4) cells/μL/year. Of the CD4 cell count rates of change estimated, none were indicative of long-term declines in CD4 cell counts. Conclusions Our results suggest that duration of cART and increasing age does not result in decreasing mean changes in CD4 cell counts for long-term virologically suppressed patients. Indicating that level of immune recovery achieved during the first 5 years of treatment are sustained through long-term cART. PMID:23036045
Papaioannou, A; Kennedy, C C; Ioannidis, G; Cameron, C; Croxford, R; Adachi, J D; Mursleen, S; Jaglal, S
2016-03-01
In this population-based study, we compared incident fracture rates in long-term care (LTC) versus community seniors between 2002 and 2012. Hip fracture rates declined more rapidly in LTC than in the community. An excess burden of fractures occurred in LTC for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures in men and hip fractures only in women. This study compares trends in incident fracture rates between long-term care (LTC) and community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years, 2002-2012. This is a population-based cohort study using administrative data. Measurements were age/sex-adjusted incident fracture rates and rate ratios (RR) and annual percent change (APC). Over 11 years, hip fracture rates had a marked decline occurring more rapidly in LTC (APC, -3.49 (95% confidence interval (CI), -3.97, -3.01)) compared with the community (APC, -2.93 (95% CI, -3.28, -2.57); p < 0.05 for difference in slopes). Humerus and wrist fracture rates decreased; however, an opposite trend occurred for pelvis and spine fractures with rates increasing over time in both cohorts (all APCs, p < 0.05). In 2012, incident hip fracture rates were higher in LTC than the community (RRs: women, 1.55 (95% CI, 1.45, 1.67); men, 2.18 (95% CI, 1.93, 2.47)). Higher rates of pelvis (RR, 1.48 (95% CI, 1.22, 1.80)) and humerus (RR, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.07, 1.84)) fractures were observed in LTC men, not women. In women, wrist (RR, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71, 0.81)) and spine (RR, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.45, 0.61)) fracture rates were lower in LTC than the community; in men, spine (RR, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57, 0.98) but not wrist fracture (RR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.67, 1.23)) rates were significantly lower in LTC than the community. Previous studies in the community have shown declining hip fracture rates over time, also demonstrated in our study but at a more rapid rate in LTC. Rates of humerus and wrist fractures also declined. An excess burden of fractures in LTC occurred for hip fractures in women and for hip, pelvis, and humerus fractures
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pascaud, A.; Sauvage, S.; Coddeville, P.; Nicolas, M.; Croisé, L.; Mezdour, A.; Probst, A.
2016-12-01
The long-distance effect of atmospheric pollution on ecosystems has led to the conclusion of international agreements to regulate atmospheric emissions and monitor their impact. This study investigated variations in atmospheric deposition chemistry in France using data gathered from three different monitoring networks (37 stations) over the period from 1995 to 2007. Despite some methodological differences (e.g. type of collector, frequency of sampling and analysis), converging results were found in spatial variations, seasonal patterns and temporal trends. With regard to spatial variations, the mean annual pH in particular ranged from 4.9 in the north-east to 5.8 in the south-east. This gradient was related to the concentration of NO3- and non-sea-salt SO42- (maximum volume-weighted mean of 38 and 31 μeq l-1 respectively) and of acid-neutralising compounds such as non-sea-salt Ca2+ and NH4+. In terms of seasonal variations, winter and autumn pH were linked to lower acidity neutralisation than during the warm season. The temporal trends in atmospheric deposition varied depending on the chemical species and site location. The most significant and widespread trend was the decrease in non-sea-salt SO42- concentrations (significant at 65% of the stations). At the same time, many stations showed an increasing trend in annual pH (+0.3 on average for 16 stations). These two trends are probably due to the reduction in SO2 emissions that has been imposed in Europe since the 1980s. Temporal trends in inorganic N concentrations were rather moderate and not consistent with the trends reported in emission estimates. Despite the reduction in NOx emissions, NO3- concentrations in atmospheric deposition remained mostly unchanged or even increased at three stations (+0.43 μeq l-1 yr-1 on average). In contrast NH4+ concentrations in atmospheric deposition decreased at several stations located in western and northern areas, while the estimates of NH3 emissions remained fairly stable
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klump, J. F.; Stender, V.; Schroeder, M.
2013-12-01
Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO) is an interdisciplinary and long-term research project spanning an Earth observation network across Germany. It includes four test sites within Germany from the North German lowlands to the Bavarian Alps and is operated by six research centers of the Helmholtz Association. The contribution by the participating research centers is organized as regional observatories. The challenge for TERENO and its observatories is to integrate all aspects of data management, data workflows, data modeling and visualizations into the design of a monitoring infrastructure. TERENO Northeast is one of the sub-observatories of TERENO and is operated by the German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ in Potsdam. This observatory investigates geoecological processes in the northeastern lowland of Germany by collecting large amounts of environmentally relevant data. The success of long-term projects like TERENO depends on well-organized data management, data exchange between the partners involved and on the availability of the captured data. Data discovery and dissemination are facilitated not only through data portals of the regional TERENO observatories but also through a common spatial data infrastructure TEODOOR. TEODOOR bundles the data, provided by the different web services of the single observatories, and provides tools for data discovery, visualization and data access. The TERENO Northeast data infrastructure integrates data from more than 200 instruments and makes the data available through standard web services. Data are stored following the CUAHSI observation data model in combination with the 52° North Sensor Observation Service data model. The data model was implemented using the PostgreSQL/PostGIS DBMS. Especially in a long-term project, such as TERENO, care has to be taken in the data model. We chose to adopt the CUAHSI observational data model because it is designed to store observations and descriptive information (metadata
Colin B. Fuss; Charles T. Driscoll; John L. Campbell
2015-01-01
Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984â2011) and stream water (1982â2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the...
Timothy A. Martin; Eric J. Jokela
2002-01-01
While nutrient availability is a dominant factor controlling leaf area development and pine productivity in the southeastern USA, few studies have explored the long-term interactions among nutrient inputs, canopy foliage production, and aboveground biomass production. In order to address these questions, the Intensive Management Practices Assessment Center (IMPAC)...
Assessment of long-term monthly and seasonal trends of warm (cold), wet (dry) spells in Kansas, USA
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dokoohaki, H.; Anandhi, A.
2013-12-01
A few recent studies have focused on trends in rainfall, temperature, and frost indicators at different temporal scales using centennial weather station data in Kansas; our study supplements this work by assessing the changes in spell indicators in Kansas. These indicators provide the duration between temperature-based (warm and cold) and precipitation-based (wet and dry) spells. For wet (dry) spell calculations, a wet day is defined as a day with precipitation ≥1 mm, and a dry day is defined as one with precipitation ≤1 mm. For warm (cold) spell calculations, a warm day is defined as a day with maximum temperature >90th percentile of daily maximum temperature, and a cold day is defined as a day with minimum temperature <10th percentile of daily minimum temperature. The percentiles are calculated for 1971-2000, and four spell indicators are calculated: Average Wet Spell Length (AWSL), Dry Spell Length (ADSL), Average Warm Spell Days (AWSD) and Average Cold Spell Days (ACSD) are calculated. Data were provided from 23 centennial weather stations across Kansas, and all calculations were done for four time periods (through 1919, 1920-1949, 1950-1979, and 1980-2009). The definitions and software provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were adapted for application to Kansas. The long- and short-term trends in these indices were analyzed at monthly and seasonal timescales. Monthly results indicate that ADSL is decreasing and AWSL is increasing throughout the state. AWSD and ACSD both showed an overall decreasing trend, but AWSD trends were variable during the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Results of seasonal analysis revealed that the fall season recorded the greatest increasing trend for ACSD and the greatest decreasing trend for AWSD across the whole state and during all time periods. Similarly, the greatest increasing and decreasing trends occurred in winter for AWSL and ADSL, respectively. These variations can be
Khan, Azmatullah; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Szulejko, Jan E; Brown, Richard J C; Jeon, Eui-Chan; Oh, Jong-Min; Shin, Yong Soon; Adelodun, Adedeji A
2017-08-01
Atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) was intermittently measured at an air quality monitoring (AQM) station in the Yong-san district of Seoul, Korea, between 1987 and 2013. The SO 2 level was compared with other important pollutants concurrently measured, including methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 10 ). If split into three different periods (period 1, 1987-1988, period 2, 1999-2000, and period 3, 2004-2013), the respective mean [SO 2 ] values (6.57 ± 4.29, 6.30 ± 2.44, and 5.29 ± 0.63 ppb) showed a slight reduction across the entire study period. The concentrations of SO 2 are found to be strongly correlated with other pollutants such as CO (r = 0.614, p = 0.02), which tracked reductions in reported emissions due to tighter emissions standards enacted by the South Korean government. There was also a clear seasonal trend in the SO 2 level, especially in periods 2 and 3, reflecting the combined effects of domestic heating by coal briquettes and meteorological conditions. Although only a 16% concentration reduction was achieved during the 27-year study duration, this is significant if one considers rapid urbanization, an 83.2% increase in population, and rapid industrialization that took place during that period. Since 1970, a network of air quality monitoring (AQM) stations has been operated by the Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE) for routine nationwide monitoring of air pollutant concentrations in urban/suburban areas. To date, the information obtained from these stations has provided a platform for analyzing long-term trends of major pollutant species. In this study, we examined the long-term trends of SO 2 levels and relevant environmental parameters monitored continuously in the Yong-san district of Seoul between 1987 and 2013. The data were analyzed over various time scales (i.e., monthly, seasonal, and annual intervals). The results obtained from
[Long-term observation of 920 porcelain fused to metal prostheses].
Jiang, Yong-Lin; Sun, Jian; Weng, Wei-Min; Zhang, Fu-Qiang
2006-10-01
To evaluate the long-term clinical results of porcelain fused to metal prostheses. Since January 1995, 920 porcelain fused to metal prostheses were fabricated. The long-term outcome were evaluated according to the condition of the prosthese, abutment and the periodontal tissue in the respects of successful rate and causes of failure. 74 patients were found to be during the follow up period, including 36 anterior crowns (46 units), 18 posterior crowns (22 units), 12 percentage of anterior bridges and 8 posterior bridges. The overall failure rate was 8.04%, 4.84% for crown, 8.77% for bridge. The failed prostheses was 5.39%. Porcelain fused to metal prostheses is an ideal method for restoration. The standard process both for the clinician and the technician must be obeyed to improve the success rate.
Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.
Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter
2018-04-15
Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liang, Jianyin; Yang, Song; Li, Cunhui; Li, Xia
2007-05-01
The authors depict the long-term changes in the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon using observational data of the Xisha Islands. The SCS monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system, and its long-term changes have seldom been explored because of the unavailability of reliable data. The daily Xisha station observations provide an important source of information for understanding the changes in the monsoon. The intensity of the SCS summer monsoon measured by kinetic energy decreased significantly from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004. This change in monsoon was mainly caused by the weakening of the meridional component of lower tropospheric winds, and the weakening in the mean flow was signaled by decreased frequency of strong southerlies (6 m s-1 and above) of the daily winds. The weakening of the monsoon was also associated with increases in sea surface temperature and surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures over SCS, which occurred more frequently when daily surface temperature reaches 29°C and higher. The long-term warming of the lower troposphere was accompanied by cooling at the upper troposphere, destabilizing the local atmosphere. However, from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004, the long-term change in Xisha precipitation tended to decrease; furthermore, in fact, the station precipitation became less variable. Thus besides local air-sea interaction, large-scale atmospheric forcing also plays an important role in causing the long-term change of the Xisha precipitation. Indeed, the warming of Xisha was linked to large-scale warming in the tropics including SCS and was associated with smaller thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the surrounding oceans, which weakened monsoon circulation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shahgedanova, Maria; Afzal, Muhammad; Usmanova, Zamira; Kapitsa, Vasilii; Mayr, Elisabeth; Hagg, Wilfried; Severskiy, Igor; Zhumabayev, Dauren
2017-04-01
The study presents results of investigation of the observed and projected changes in discharge of seven snow- and glacier-nourished rivers of the northern Tien Shan (south-eastern Kazakhstan). The observed trends were assessed using the long-term (40-60 years) homogeneous daily records of discharge from the gauging stations located in the mountains and unaffected by human activities including water abstraction. Positive trends in discharge were registered at most sites between the 1950s and 2010s with the strongest increase in summer and autumn particularly in 2000-2010s in line with the positive temperature trends. The observed increase was most prominent in the catchments with a higher proportion of glacierized area. At the Ulken Almatinka and Kishi Almatinka rivers, where 16% and 12% of the catchment areas are glacierized, positive trends in summer and autumn discharge exceeded 1% per year. The strongest increase was observed in September indicating that melting period extends in the early autumn. In September-November, the number of days with extreme discharge values, defined as daily values exceeding 95th percentile (calculated for each meteorological season), increased at all rivers. Future changes in discharge were modelled using HBV-ETH hydrological model and four climate change scenarios derived using regional climate model PRECIS with 25 km spatial resolution driven by HadGEM GCM for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5 GCM for A1B scenario. A range of glacier change scenarios was considered. All climate experiments project increase in temperature with the strongest warming projected by the HadGEM-driven simulation for RCP 8.5 scenario and HadCM3Q0-driven simulation for A1B scenario. The projected changes in precipitation varied between models and seasons, however, most experiments did not show significant trends in precipitation within the studied catchments. The exception is a simulation driven by HadGEM GCM for 8.5 RCP scenario which
Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.
Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J
2015-03-19
Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz
2016-04-01
Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second
Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data
Hegglin, M. I.; Plummer, D. A.; Shepherd, T. G.; Scinocca, J. F.; Anderson, J.; Froidevaux, L.; Funke, B.; Hurst, D.; Rozanov, A.; Urban, J.; von Clarmann, T.; Walker, K. A.; Wang, H. J.; Tegtmeier, S.; Weigel, K.
2017-01-01
Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere. PMID:29263751
Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data.
Hegglin, M I; Plummer, D A; Shepherd, T G; Scinocca, J F; Anderson, J; Froidevaux, L; Funke, B; Hurst, D; Rozanov, A; Urban, J; von Clarmann, T; Walker, K A; Wang, H J; Tegtmeier, S; Weigel, K
2014-01-01
Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. The longest available record from balloon observations over Boulder, Colorado, USA shows increases in stratospheric water vapour concentrations that cannot be fully explained by observed changes in the main drivers, tropical tropopause temperatures and methane. Satellite observations could help resolve the issue, but constructing a reliable long-term data record from individual short satellite records is challenging. Here we present an approach to merge satellite data sets with the help of a chemistry-climate model nudged to observed meteorology. We use the models' water vapour as a transfer function between data sets that overcomes issues arising from instrument drift and short overlap periods. In the lower stratosphere, our water vapour record extends back to 1988 and water vapour concentrations largely follow tropical tropopause temperatures. Lower and mid-stratospheric long-term trends are negative, and the trends from Boulder are shown not to be globally representative. In the upper stratosphere, our record extends back to 1986 and shows positive long-term trends. The altitudinal differences in the trends are explained by methane oxidation together with a strengthened lower-stratospheric and a weakened upper-stratospheric circulation inferred by this analysis. Our results call into question previous estimates of surface radiative forcing based on presumed global long-term increases in water vapour concentrations in the lower stratosphere.
Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Butler, J. H.
2017-12-01
NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yamashita, Y.; Shinohara, M.; Yamada, T.; Shiobara, H.
2017-12-01
It is important to understand coupling between plates in a subduction zone for studies of earthquake generation. Recently low frequency tremor and very low frequency earthquake (VLFE) were discovered in plate boundary near a trench. These events (slow earthquakes) in shallow plate boundary should be related to slow slip on a plate boundary. For observation of slow earthquakes, Broad Band Ocean Bottom Seismometer (BBOBS) is useful, however a number of BBOBSs are limited due to cost. On the other hand, a number of Long-term OBSs (LT-OBSs) with recording period of one year are available. However, the LT-OBS has seismometer with a natural period of 1 second. Therefore frequency band of observation is slightly narrow for slow earthquakes. Therefore we developed a compact long-term broad-band OBS by replacement of the seismic sensor of the LT-OBSs to broadband seismometer.We adopted seismic sensor with natural period of 20 seconds (Trillium Compact Broadband Seismometer, Nanometrics). Because tilt of OBS on seafloor can not be controlled due to free-fall, leveling system for seismic sensor is necessary. The broadband seismic senor has cylinder shape with diameter of 90 mm and height of 100 mm, and the developed levelling system can mount the seismic sensor with no modification of shape. The levelling system has diameter of 160 mm and height of 110 mm, which is the same size as existing levelling system of the LT-OBS. The levelling system has two horizontal axes and each axis is driven by motor. Leveling can be performed up to 20 degrees by using micro-processor (Arduino). Resolution of levelling is less than one degree. The system immediately starts leveling by the power-on of controller. After levelling, the the seismic senor is powered and the controller records angles of levelling to SD RAM. Then the controller is shut down to consume no power. Compact long-term broadband ocean bottom seismometer is useful for observation of slow earthquakes on seafloor. In addition
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Murray, Lee T.; Fiore, Arlene M.
2014-01-01
additional 31-year simulation from 1980-2010 of GEOS-Chem driven by the MACCity emissions inventory and MERRA reanalysis at 4o by 5o. We sample the model at every WOUDC sonde and flight track from MOZAIC and NASA field campaigns to evaluate which aggregate observations are statistically reflective of long-term trends over the period.
Wu, Zhixu; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Mingliang; Shi, Kun; Yu, Zuoming
2015-08-12
Water transparency is a useful indicator of water quality or productivity and is widely used to detect long-term changes in the water quality and eutrophication of lake ecosystems. Based on short-term spatial observations in the spring, summer, and winter and on long-term site-specific observation from 1988 to 2013, the spatial, seasonal, long-term variations, and the factors affecting transparency are presented for Xin'anjiang Reservoir (China). Spatially, transparency was high in the open water but low in the bays and the inflowing river mouths, reflecting the effect of river runoff. The seasonal effects were distinct, with lower values in the summer than in the winter, most likely due to river runoff and phytoplankton biomass increases. The transparency decreased significantly with a linear slope of 0.079 m/year, indicating a 2.05 m decrease and a marked decrease in water quality. A marked increase occurred in chlorophyll a (Chla) concentration, and a significant correlation was found between the transparency and Chla concentration, indicating that phytoplankton biomass can partially explain the long-term trend of transparency in Xin'anjiang Reservoir. The river input and phytoplankton biomass increase were associated with soil erosion and nutrient loss in the catchment. Our study will support future management of water quality in Xin'anjiang Reservoir.
A Long-Term Psychological Observation in an Adolescent Affected with Gardner Diamond Syndrome
Bizzi, Fabiola; Sciarretta, Lucia; D’Alessandro, Matteo; Picco, Paolo
2016-01-01
Gardner-Diamond syndrome (GDS) is an uncommon disease clinically characterized by a wide spectrum of psycho-emotive symptoms associated with painful ecchymoses/purpuric lesions and positivity of auto-erythrocyte sensitization skin test. Herein, a perspective clinical and psychological observation of an adolescent GDS is firstly reported focusing on her psychological features long-term monitored for a 1-year period. The administration of a standardized tools battery allowed us to define psychological features of the young patient over time and to monitored clinical course and response to treatment. PMID:27011410
Stets, Edward G.; Kelly, Valerie J.; Crawford, Charles G.
2014-01-01
Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate + sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen–Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate + sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Cook, Benjamin I.; Pau, Stephanie
2013-01-01
Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc.), especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated) where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax) as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982-2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation) and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation). Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2-4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread increases in
Stets, E G; Kelly, V J; Crawford, C G
2014-08-01
Alkalinity increases in large rivers of the conterminous US are well known, but less is understood about the processes leading to these trends as compared with headwater systems more intensively examined in conjunction with acid deposition studies. Nevertheless, large rivers are important conduits of inorganic carbon and other solutes to coastal areas and may have substantial influence on coastal calcium carbonate saturation dynamics. We examined long-term (mid-20th to early 21st century) trends in alkalinity and other weathering products in 23 rivers of the conterminous US. We used a rigorous flow-weighting technique which allowed greater focus on solute trends occurring independently of changes in flow. Increasing alkalinity concentrations and yield were widespread, occurring at 14 and 13 stations, respectively. Analysis of trends in other weathering products suggested that the causes of alkalinity trends were diverse, but at many stations alkalinity increases coincided with decreasing nitrate+sulfate and decreasing cation:alkalinity ratios, which is consistent with recovery from acidification. A positive correlation between the Sen-Thiel slopes of alkalinity increases and agricultural lime usage indicated that agricultural lime contributed to increasing solute concentration in some areas. However, several stations including the Altamaha, Upper Mississippi, and San Joaquin Rivers exhibited solute trends, such as increasing cation:alkalinity ratios and increasing nitrate+sulfate, more consistent with increasing acidity, emphasizing that multiple processes affect alkalinity trends in large rivers. This study was unique in its examination of alkalinity trends in large rivers covering a wide range of climate and land use types, but more detailed analyses will help to better elucidate temporal changes to river solutes and especially the effects they may have on coastal calcium carbonate saturation state. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Long-term monitoring of river basins: strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Howden, N. J. K.; Burt, T. P.
2016-12-01
In a world where equilibrium is more and more uncommon, monitoring is an essential way to discover whether undesirable change is taking place. Monitoring requires a deliberate plan of action: the regular collection and processing of information. Long-term data reveal important patterns, allowing trends, cycles, and rare events to be identified. This is particularly important for complex systems where signals may be subtle and slow to emerge. Moreover, very long data sets are essential to test hypotheses undreamt of at the time the monitoring was started. This overview includes long time series from UK river basins showing how hydrology and water quality have changed over time - and continue to change. An important conclusion is the long time frame of system recovery, well beyond the normal lifetime of individual governments or research grants. At a time of increasing hydroclimatic variability, long time series remain crucially important; in particular, continuity of observations is vital at key benchmark sites.
Long-term tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone variations from ozonesonde observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
London, J.; Liu, S. C.
1992-01-01
An analysis is presented of the long-term mean pressure-latitude seasonal distribution of tropospheric and lower stratospheric ozone for the four seasons covering, in part, over 20 years of ozonesonde data. The observed patterns show minimum ozone mixing ratios in the equatorial and tropical troposphere except in regions where net photochemical production is dominant. In the middle and upper troposphere, and low stratosphere to 50 mb, ozone increases from the tropics to subpolar latitudes of both hemispheres. In mid stratosphere, the ozone mixing ratio is a maximum over the tropics. The observed vertical ozone gradient is small in the troposphere but increases rapidly above the tropopause. The amplitude of the annual variation increases from a minimum in the tropics to a maximum in polar regions. Also, the amplitude increases with height at all latitudes up to about 30 mb where the phase of the annual variation changes abruptly. The phase of the annual variation is during spring in the boundary layer, summer in mid troposphere, and spring in the upper troposhere and lower stratosphere.
Using natural archives to track sources and long-term trends of pollution: an introduction
Jules Blais,; Rosen, Michael R.; John Smol,
2015-01-01
This book explores the myriad ways that environmental archives can be used to study the distribution and long-term trajectories of contaminants. The volume first focuses on reviews that examine the integrity of the historic record, including factors related to hydrology, post-depositional diffusion, and mixing processes. This is followed by a series of chapters dealing with the diverse archives available for long-term studies of environmental pollution.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Long-term research conducted at multiple scales is critical to assessing the effects of key long term drivers (e.g., global population growth; land-use change; increased competition for natural resources; climate variability and change) on our ability to sustain or enhance agricultural production to...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tedesco, M.; Stroeve, J. C.
2014-12-01
The length of the melting season and surface albedo modulate the amount of meltwater produced over the Greenland ice sheet. The two quantities are intimately connected through a suite of non-linear processes: for example, early melting can reduce the surface albedo (through constructive grain size metamorphism), hence affecting the surface energy balance and further increasing melting. Over the past years, several studies have highlighted increased melting concurring, with a decrease of mean surface albedo over Greenland. However, few studies have examined the duration of the melting season, its implication for surface processes and linkages to climate drivers. Moreover, the majority (if not all) of the studies assessing albedo trends from spaceborne data over Greenland have focused on the last decade or so (2000 - 2013) because they use data collected over the same period by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Here, we evaluate and synthesize long-term trends in the length of the melting season (1979 - 2013) derived from spaceborne microwave observations together with surface albedo trends for the period 1982 - 2013 using data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To our knowledge, this is the first time that trends in Greenland albedo and melt season length are discussed for the periods considered in this study. Our results point to a lengthening of the melting season as a consequence of earlier melt onset and later refreeze and to a decrease of mean albedo (1982 - 2013) over the Greenland ice sheet, with trends being spatially variable. To account for this spatial variability, the results of an analysis at regional scales over 12 different regions (defined by elevation and drainage systems) are also reported. The robustness of the results is evaluated by means of a comparative analysis of the results obtained from both AVHRR and MODIS when overlapping data are available (2000 - 2013). Lastly, because large
Long Term Seismic Observation in Mariana by OBSs : Double Seismic Zone and Upper Mantle Structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiobara, H.; Sugioka, H.; Mochizuki, K.; Oki, S.; Kanazawa, T.; Fukao, Y.; Suyehiro, K.
2005-12-01
In order to obtain the deep arc structural image of Mariana, a large-scale seismic observation by using 58 long-term ocean bottom seismometers (LTOBS) had been performed from June 2003 until April 2004, which is a part of the MARGINS program funded by the NSF. Prior to this observation, a pilot long-term seismic array observation was conducted in the same area by using 10 LTOBSs from Oct. 2001 until Feb. 2003. At that time, 8 LTOBSs were recovered but one had no data. Recently, 2 LTOBSs, had troubles in the releasing, were recovered by the manned submersible (Shinkai 6500, Jamstec) for the research of the malfunction in July 2005. By using all 9 LTOBS's data, those are about 11 months long, hypocenter determination was performed and more than 3000 local events were found. Even with the 1D velocity structure based on the iasp91 model, double seismic zones and a systematic shift of epicenters between the PDE and this study were observed. To investigate the detail of hypocenter distribution and the 3D velocity structure, the DD inversion (tomoDD: Zhang and Thurber, 2003) was applied for this data set with the 1D structure initial model except for the crust, which has been surveyed by using a dense airgun-OBS system (Takahashi et al., 2003). The result of relocated hypocenters shows clear double seismic zones until about 200 km depth, a high activity area around the fore-arc serpentine sea-mount, the Big Blue, and a lined focuses along the current ridge axis in the back-arc basin, and the result of the tomography shows a image of subducting slab and a low-Vs region below the same sea-mount mentioned. The wedge mantle structure was not clearly resolved due to the inadequate source-receiver coverage, which will be done in the recent experiment.
Stevens, Shawn M; Manning, Amy; Pensak, Myles L; Samy, Ravi N
2017-02-01
Review long-term symptom-specific outcomes for petrous apex cholesterol granulomas (PACG). Retrospective review. Tertiary center. Adults with PACG were assessed from 1998 to 2015. Symptomatic patients were stratified into surgical and observation subgroups. Resolution rates of individual symptoms and chief complaints were assessed as was the impact of surgical approach and stent usage on symptom-specific outcomes. Symptom recurrence rates were tabulated. Twenty-seven patients were included whose mean age was 44.8 ± 3.3 years. Fourteen and 13 patients stratified into the surgical and observation subgroups respectively. The surgical subgroup trended toward a longer follow-up period (mean 68.5 vs. 33.8 mo; p = 0.06). Overall, the most frequent symptoms encountered were headache (52%), aural fullness, tinnitus, and vestibular complaints (41% each). Visual complaints, retro-orbital pain, and cranial neuropathies were less common (18%, 15%, 11%). The overall symptom resolution rate was significantly higher in the surgical subgroup (48% vs. 26%, p = 0.03). In both subgroups, headache, retro-orbital pain, and visual complaints had the highest resolution rates. Vestibular complaints and tinnitus were very unlikely to resolve. Significantly more patients in the surgical group resolved their chief complaints (70% vs. 25%, p = 0.02). While approach type and stent usage did not significantly influence symptom outcomes, all patients with symptom recurrence (11%) were initially managed without stents. Symptom-specific outcomes were better in patients managed surgically for PACG. Individual symptom resolution rates were highly variable. Some symptoms were refractory regardless of management strategy. Surgical approach and stent usage did not significantly influence symptom outcomes.
The long-term physical and psychological health impacts of flooding: A systematic mapping.
Zhong, Shuang; Yang, Lianping; Toloo, Sam; Wang, Zhe; Tong, Shilu; Sun, Xiaojie; Crompton, David; FitzGerald, Gerard; Huang, Cunrui
2018-06-01
Flooding has caused significant and wide ranging long-term health impacts for affected populations. However, until now, the long-term health outcomes, epidemiological trends and specific impact factors of flooding had not been identified. In this study, the relevant literature was systematically mapped to create the first synthesis of the evidence of the long-term health impacts of flooding. The systematic mapping method was used to collect and categorize all the relevant literature. A study was included if it had a description or measurement of health impacts over six months after flooding. The search was limited to peer reviewed articles and grey literature written in English, published from 1996 to 2016. A total of 56 critical articles were extracted for the final map, including 5 qualitative and 51 quantitative studies. Most long-term studies investigated the psychological impacts of flooding, including PTSD, depression, anxiety, psychiatric disorders, sleep disorder and suicide. Others investigated the physiological impacts, including health-related quality of life, acute myocardial infarction, chronic diseases, and malnutrition. Social support was proved to be protective factors that can improve health outcomes in the long-term after flooding. To date, there have been relatively few reviews had focused on the long-term health impacts of flooding. This study coded and catalogued the existing evidence across a wide range of variables and described the long-term health consequences within a conceptual map. Although there was no boundary between the short-term and the long-term impacts of flooding, the identified health outcomes in this systematic mapping could be used to define long-term health impacts. The studies showed that the prevalence of psychological diseases had a reversed increasing trend occurred even in the long-term in relatively poor post-flooding environments. Further cohort or longitudinal research focused on disability, chronic diseases
Wright, S T; Petoumenos, K; Boyd, M; Carr, A; Downing, S; O'Connor, C C; Grotowski, M; Law, M G
2013-04-01
The aim of this study was to describe the long-term changes in CD4 cell counts beyond 5 years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). If natural ageing leads to a long-term decline in the immune system via low-grade chronic immune activation/inflammation, then one might expect to see a greater or earlier decline in CD4 counts in older HIV-positive patients with increasing duration of cART. Retrospective and prospective data were examined from long-term virologically stable HIV-positive adults from the Australian HIV Observational Database. We estimated mean CD4 cell count changes following the completion of 5 years of cART using linear mixed models. A total of 37 916 CD4 measurements were observed for 892 patients over a combined total of 9753 patient-years. Older patients (> 50 years old) at cART initiation had estimated mean (95% confidence interval) changes in CD4 counts by year-5 CD4 count strata (< 500, 500-750 and > 750 cells/μL) of 14 (7 to 21), 3 (-5 to 11) and -6 (-17 to 4) cells/μL/year. Of the CD4 cell count rates of change estimated, none were indicative of long-term declines in CD4 cell counts. Our results suggest that duration of cART and increasing age do not result in decreasing mean changes in CD4 cell counts for long-term virologically suppressed patients, indicating that the level of immune recovery achieved during the first 5 years of treatment is sustained through long-term cART. © 2012 British HIV Association.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackay, D. S.
2001-05-01
Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pollack, I. B.; Ryerson, T. B.; Baumann, K.; Edgerton, E. S.; De Gouw, J. A.; Gilman, J.; Graus, M.; Holloway, J.; Lerner, B. M.; Neuman, J. A.; Roberts, J. M.; Veres, P. R.; Warneke, C.; Trainer, M.; Parrish, D. D.
2013-12-01
In an environment rich in biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), decreasing concentrations of ozone (-1.3 % yr-1) and other secondary pollutants (-8.2 % yr-1 for nitric acid, HNO3; and -7.9 % yr-1 for peroxyacetyl nitrate, PAN) in Atlanta, Georgia over the past fifteen years are primarily attributed to decreases in local emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2). Large reductions in abundances of NOx in the Southeast U.S. over the years (-8.0 % yr-1 for total reactive nitrogen, NOy) are the direct result of control strategies implemented to reduced emissions from electric-power generation plants and on-road motor vehicles. Here, we compile an extensive historical data set of trace gas measurements spanning fifteen years between 1998 and 2013 from a surface monitoring network site in downtown Atlanta (i.e. the SEARCH network Jefferson Street site) and research aircraft (e.g. the 2013 Southeast Atmosphere Study and 1999 Southern Oxidants Study aboard the NOAA P-3 aircraft). With this data set we confirm and extend long-term trends and weekday-to-weekend differences in ozone, its precursors, and other secondary pollutants during summertime in Atlanta. Long-term changes in abundances and enhancement ratios of secondary oxidation products indicate changes in pollutant formation chemistry in Atlanta resulting from the significant decrease in NOx precursor emissions over the past fifteen years. The most noteworthy changes include: 1) an increase in enhancement ratios of odd oxygen (Ox=O3+NO2) to (PAN+HNO3) of +5.5 % yr-1 indicating an increase in ozone production efficiency by a factor of 2 over the fifteen year period, 2) no significant change in the fraction of oxidized NOx out of NOy over time indicating little change in the extent of photochemical processing of the NOx emissions, and 3) a flip in observed ozone concentrations from higher average ozone on weekends to higher average ozone on weekdays after 2004. The observations for Atlanta will also be contrasted
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine
2016-09-01
Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.
Murugiah, Karthik; Wang, Yun; Desai, Nihar R; Spatz, Erica S; Nuti, Sudhakar V; Dreyer, Rachel P; Krumholz, Harlan M
2016-03-01
The aim of this study was to assess trends in hospitalizations and outcomes for Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TTC). There is a paucity of nationally representative data on trends in short- and long-term outcomes for patients with TTC. The authors examined hospitalization rates; in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality; and all-cause 30-day readmission for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with principal and secondary diagnoses of TTC from 2007 to 2012. Hospitalizations for principal or secondary diagnosis of TTC increased from 5.7 per 100,000 person-years in 2007 to 17.4 in 2012 (p for trend < 0.001). Patients were predominantly women and of white race. For principal TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1% to 1.6%), 2.5% (95% CI: 2.2% to 2.8%), and 6.9% (95% CI: 6.4% to 7.5%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 11.6% (95% CI: 10.9% to 12.3%). For secondary TTC, in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality was 3% (95% CI: 2.7% to 3.3%), 4.7% (95% CI: 4.4% to 5.1%), and 11.4% (95% CI: 10.8% to 11.9%), and the 30-day readmission rate was 15.8% (95% CI: 15.1% to 16.4%). Over time, there was no change in mortality or readmission rate for both cohorts. Patients ≥85 years of age had higher in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality and 30-day readmission rates. Among patients with principal TTC, male and nonwhite patients had higher 1-year mortality than their counterparts, whereas in those with secondary TTC, mortality was worse at all 3 time points. Nonwhite patients had higher 30-day readmission rates for both cohorts. Hospitalization rates for TTC are increasing, but short- and long-term outcomes have not changed. At 1 year, 14 in 15 patients with principal TTC and 8 in 9 with secondary TTC are alive. Older, male, and nonwhite patients have worse outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Diffuse pollution of soil and water: Long term trends at large scales?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grathwohl, P.
2012-04-01
Industrialization and urbanization, which consequently increased pressure on the environment to cause degradation of soil and water quality over more than a century, is still ongoing. The number of potential environmental contaminants detected in surface and groundwater is continuously increasing; from classical industrial and agricultural chemicals, to flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products. While point sources of pollution can be managed in principle, diffuse pollution is only reversible at very long time scales if at all. Compounds which were phased out many decades ago such as PCBs or DDT are still abundant in soils, sediments and biota. How diffuse pollution is processed at large scales in space (e.g. catchments) and time (centuries) is unknown. The relevance to the field of processes well investigated at the laboratory scale (e.g. sorption/desorption and (bio)degradation kinetics) is not clear. Transport of compounds is often coupled to the water cycle and in order to assess trends in diffuse pollution, detailed knowledge about the hydrology and the solute fluxes at the catchment scale is required (e.g. input/output fluxes, transformation rates at the field scale). This is also a prerequisite in assessing management options for reversal of adverse trends.
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based up...
Global synthesis of long-term cloud condensation nuclei observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schmale, Julia; Henning, Silvia; Stratmann, Frank; Henzing, Bas; Schlag, Patrick; Aalto, Pasi; Keskinen, Helmi; Sellegri, Karine; Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Krüger, Mira; Jefferson, Anne; Whitehead, James; Carslaw, Ken; Yum, Seong Soo; Kristensson, Adam; Baltensperger, Urs; Gysel, Martin
2016-04-01
Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are aerosol particles with the ability to activate into droplets at a given super saturation and therefore influence the microphysical and optical properties of clouds. To predict cloud radiative properties understanding the spatial and temporal variability of CCN concentrations in different environments is important. However, currently, the effects of atmospheric particles on changes in cloud radiative forcing are still the largest contribution of uncertainty in climate forcing prediction (IPCC, 2013). Numerous intensive field campaigns have already explored detailed characteristics of CCN in many locations around the world. However, these rather short-term observations can generally not address seasonal or inter-annual variations and a comparison between campaign sites is difficult due to the higher influence of specific environmental circumstances on short-term measurements results. Here, we present results of more long-term CCN and aerosol number concentrations as well as size distribution data covering at least one full year between 2006 and 2014. The 12 locations include ACTRIS stations (http://www.actris.net/) in Europe, and further sites in North America, Brazil and Korea. The sites are located in different environments allowing for temporal and spatial characterization of CCN variability in different atmospheric regimes. Those include marine, remote-continental, boreal forest, rain forest, Arctic and monsoon-influenced environments, as well as boundary layer and free tropospheric conditions. The aerosol populations and their activation behavior show significant differences across the stations. While peak concentrations of CCN are observed in summer at the high altitude sites, in the Arctic the highest concentrations occur during the Haze period in spring. The rural-marine and rural-continental sites exhibit similar CCN concentration characteristics with a relatively flat annual cycle. At some stations, e.g. in the boreal
Changes in long-term eruption dynamics at Santiaguito, Guatemala: Observations from seismic data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lamb, O. D.; Lavallée, Y.; De Angelis, S.; Lamur, A.; Hornby, A. J.; von Aulock, F. W.; Kendrick, J. E.; Chigna, G.; Rietbrock, A.
2016-12-01
Santiaguito (Guatemala) is an ideal laboratory for the study of the eruption dynamics of long-lived silicic eruptions. Here we present seismic observations of ash-and-gas explosions recorded between November 2014 and June 2016 during a multi-disciplinary experiment by the University of Liverpool. The instruments, deployed around the active dome complex between 0.5 to 7 km from the vent, included 5 broadband and 6 short-period seismometers, as well as 5 infrasound sensors. The geophysical data is complemented by thermal images, optical images from a UAV, and geochemical measurements of erupted material. Regular, small-to-moderate sized explosions from the El Caliente dome at Santiaguito have been common since at least the early 1970s. However, in 2015, a shift in character took place in terms of the regularity and magnitude of the explosions. Explosions became larger and less regular, and often accompanied by pyroclastic density currents. The larger explosions have caused a major morphological change at the vent, as a rubble-filled vent was replaced by a crater of 150 m depth. This shift in behaviour likely represents a change in the eruptive mechanism in the upper conduit beneath the Caliente vent, possibly triggered by processes at a greater depth in the volcanic system. This experiment represents a unique opportunity to use multi-disciplinary research to help understand the long-term eruptive dynamics of lava dome eruptions. Our observations may have implications for hazard assessment not only at Santiaguito, but at many other volcanic systems worldwide.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marty, Christoph; Meister, Roland
2012-12-01
Snow and weather observations at Weissfluhjoch were initiated in 1936, when a research team set a snow stake and started digging snow pits on a plateau located at 2,540 m asl above Davos, Switzerland. This was the beginning of what is now the longest series of daily snow depth, new snow height and bi-monthly snow water equivalent measurements from a high-altitude research station. Our investigations reveal that the snow depth at Weissfluhjoch with regard to the evolution and inter-annual variability represents a good proxy for the entire Swiss Alps. In order to set the snow and weather observations from Weissfluhjoch in a broader context, this paper also shows some comparisons with measurements from five other high-altitude observatories in the European Alps. The results show a surprisingly uniform warming of 0.8°C during the last three decades at the six investigated mountain stations. The long-term snow measurements reveal no change in mid-winter, but decreasing trends (especially since the 1980s) for the solid precipitation ratio, snow fall, snow water equivalent and snow depth during the melt season due to a strong temperature increase of 2.5°C in the spring and summer months of the last three decades.
Walsh, Jacquelyn N; Manor, Brad; Hausdorff, Jeffrey; Novak, Vera; Lipsitz, Lewis; Gow, Brian; Macklin, Eric A; Peng, Chung-Kang; Wayne, Peter M
2015-07-01
Cognitive decline amongst older adults is a significant public health concern. There is growing interest in behavioral interventions, including exercise, for improving cognition. Studies to date suggest tai chi (TC) may be a safe and potentially effective exercise for preserving cognitive function with aging; however, its short-term and potential long-term impact on physically active, healthy adults is unclear. To compare differences in cognitive function among long-term TC expert practitioners and age-matched and gender-matched TC-naïve adults and to determine the effects of short-term TC training on measures of cognitive function in healthy, nonsedentary adults. A hybrid design including an observational comparison and a 2-arm randomized clinical trial (RCT). Healthy, nonsedentary, TC-naive adults (50 y-79 y) and age-matched and gender-matched long-term TC experts. A cross-sectional comparison of cognitive function in healthy TC-naïve (n=60) and TC expert (24.5 y ÷ 12 y experience; n=27) adults: TC-naïve adults then completed a 6-month, 2-arm, wait-list randomized clinical trial of TC training. Six measures of cognitive function were assessed for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons. TC experts exhibited trends towards better scores on all cognitive measures, significantly so for category fluency (P=.01), as well as a composite z score summarizing all 6 cognitive assessments (P=.03). In contrast, random assignment to 6 months of TC training in TC-naïve adults did not significantly improve any measures of cognitive function. In healthy nonsedentary adults, long-term TC training may help preserve cognitive function; however, the effect of short-term TC training in healthy adults remains unclear. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01340365.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fukui, Shin; Iwasaki, Toshiki; Saito, Kazuo; Seko, Hiromu; Kunii, Masaru
2016-04-01
Several long-term global reanalyses have been produced by major operational centres and have contributed to the advance of weather and climate researches considerably. Although the horizontal resolutions of these global reanalyses are getting higher partly due to the development of computing technology, they are still too coarse to reproduce local circulations and precipitation realistically. To solve this problem, dynamical downscaling is often employed. However, the forcing from lateral boundaries only cannot necessarily control the inner fields especially in long-term dynamical downscaling. Regional reanalysis is expected to overcome the difficulty. To maintain the long-term consistency of the analysis quality, it is better to assimilate only the conventional observations that are available in long period. To confirm the effectiveness of the regional reanalysis, some assimilation experiments are performed. In the experiments, only conventional observations (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, TC-Bogus) are assimilated with the NHM-LETKF system, which consists of the nonhydrostatic model (NHM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). The horizontal resolution is 25 km and the domain covers Japan and its surroundings. Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) is adopted as the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the NHM-LETKF forecast-analysis cycles. The ensemble size is 10. The experimental period is August 2014 as a representative of warm season for the region. The results are verified against the JMA's operational Meso-scale Analysis, which is produced with assimilating observation data including various remote sensing observations using a 4D-Var scheme, and compared with those of the simple dynamical downscaling experiment without data assimilation. Effects of implementation of lateral boundary perturbations derived from an EOF analysis of JRA-55 over the targeted domain are also examined. The comparison
Geocoronal hydrogen studies using Fabry Perot interferometers, part 2: Long-term observations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nossal, S. M.; Mierkiewicz, E. J.; Roesler, F. L.; Reynolds, R. J.; Haffner, L. M.
2006-09-01
Long-term data sets are required to investigate sources of natural variability in the upper atmosphere. Understanding the influence of sources of natural variability such as the solar cycle is needed to characterize the thermosphere + exosphere, to understand coupling processes between atmospheric regions, and to isolate signatures of natural variability from those due to human-caused change. Multi-year comparisons of thermospheric + exospheric Balmer α emissions require cross-calibrated and well-understood instrumentation, a stable calibration source, reproducible observing conditions, separation of the terrestrial from the Galactic emission line, and consistent data analysis accounting for differences in viewing geometry. We discuss how we address these criteria in the acquisition and analysis of a mid-latitude geocoronal Balmer α column emission data set now spanning two solar cycles and taken mainly from Wisconsin and Kitt Peak, Arizona. We also discuss results and outstanding challenges for increasing the accuracy and use of these observations.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.
1989-01-01
The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.
Long-Term Neurological Outcomes in West Nile Virus–Infected Patients: An Observational Study
Weatherhead, Jill E.; Miller, Vicki E.; Garcia, Melissa N.; Hasbun, Rodrigo; Salazar, Lucrecia; Dimachkie, Mazen M.; Murray, Kristy O.
2015-01-01
The Houston West Nile Cohort (HWNC) was founded in 2002 when West Nile virus (WNV) reached Houston, TX. The long-term outcomes following WNV infection are still mostly unknown, though neurological abnormalities up to 1 year postinfection have been documented. We report an observational study of neurological abnormalities at 1–3 and 8–11 years following WNV infection in the HWNC. We conducted standard neurological examinations at two separate time points to assess changes in neurological status over time. The majority of patients (86%, 30/35) with encephalitis had abnormal neurological exam findings at the time of the first assessment compared with uncomplicated fever (27%, 3/11) and meningitis (36%, 5/14) cases. At the time of the second assessment, 57% (4/7) of West Nile fever (WNF), 33% (2/6) of West Nile meningitis (WNM), and 36% (5/14) of West Nile encephalitis (WNE) had developed new neurological complications. The most common abnormalities noted were tandem gait, hearing loss, abnormal reflexes, and muscle weakness. Long-term neurological abnormalities were most commonly found in patients who experienced primary WNV encephalitis. New abnormalities may develop over time regardless of initial clinical infection. Future studies should aim to differentiate neurological consequences due to WNV neuroinvasive infection versus neurological decline related to comorbid conditions. PMID:25802426
Urbanization accelerates long-term salinization and alkalinization of fresh water
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kaushal, S.; Duan, S.; Doody, T.; Haq, S.; Smith, R. M.; Newcomer Johnson, T. A.; Delaney Newcomb, K.; Gorman, J. K.; Bowman, N.; Mayer, P. M.; Wood, K. L.; Belt, K.; Stack, W.
2017-12-01
Human dominated land-use increases transport a major ions in streams due to anthropogenic salts and accelerated weathering. We show long-term trends in calcium, magnesium, sodium, alkalinity, and hardness over 50 years in the Baltimore metropolitan region and elsewhere. We also examine how major ion concentrations have increased significantly with impervious surface cover in watersheds across land use. Base cations show strong relationships with acid anions, which illustrates the coupling of major biogeochemical cycles in urban watersheds over time. Longitudinal patterns in major ions can also show increasing trends from headwaters to coastal waters, which suggests coupled biogeochemical cycles over space. We present new results from manipulative experiments and long-term monitoring across different urban regions regarding patterns and processes of salinization and alkalinization. Overall, our work demonstrates that urbanization dramatically increases major ions, ionic strength, and pH over decades from headwaters to coastal waters, which impacts the integrity of aquatic life, infrastructure, drinking water, and coastal ocean alkalinization.
Wu, Zhixu; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Mingliang; Shi, Kun; Yu, Zuoming
2015-01-01
Water transparency is a useful indicator of water quality or productivity and is widely used to detect long-term changes in the water quality and eutrophication of lake ecosystems. Based on short-term spatial observations in the spring, summer, and winter and on long-term site-specific observation from 1988 to 2013, the spatial, seasonal, long-term variations, and the factors affecting transparency are presented for Xin’anjiang Reservoir (China). Spatially, transparency was high in the open water but low in the bays and the inflowing river mouths, reflecting the effect of river runoff. The seasonal effects were distinct, with lower values in the summer than in the winter, most likely due to river runoff and phytoplankton biomass increases. The transparency decreased significantly with a linear slope of 0.079 m/year, indicating a 2.05 m decrease and a marked decrease in water quality. A marked increase occurred in chlorophyll a (Chla) concentration, and a significant correlation was found between the transparency and Chla concentration, indicating that phytoplankton biomass can partially explain the long-term trend of transparency in Xin’anjiang Reservoir. The river input and phytoplankton biomass increase were associated with soil erosion and nutrient loss in the catchment. Our study will support future management of water quality in Xin’anjiang Reservoir. PMID:26274970
Long-Term Memory Performance in Adult ADHD.
Skodzik, Timo; Holling, Heinz; Pedersen, Anya
2017-02-01
Memory problems are a frequently reported symptom in adult ADHD, and it is well-documented that adults with ADHD perform poorly on long-term memory tests. However, the cause of this effect is still controversial. The present meta-analysis examined underlying mechanisms that may lead to long-term memory impairments in adult ADHD. We performed separate meta-analyses of measures of memory acquisition and long-term memory using both verbal and visual memory tests. In addition, the influence of potential moderator variables was examined. Adults with ADHD performed significantly worse than controls on verbal but not on visual long-term memory and memory acquisition subtests. The long-term memory deficit was strongly statistically related to the memory acquisition deficit. In contrast, no retrieval problems were observable. Our results suggest that memory deficits in adult ADHD reflect a learning deficit induced at the stage of encoding. Implications for clinical and research settings are presented.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Park, J.; Gall, H. E.; Niyogi, D.; Rao, S.
2012-12-01
The global trend of increased urbanization, and associated increased intensity of energy and material consumption and waste emissions, has contributed to shifts in the trajectories of aquatic, terrestrial, and atmospheric environments. Here, we focus on continental-scale spatiotemporal patterns in two atmospheric constituents (nitrate and sulfate), whose global biogeochemical cycles have been dramatically altered by emissions from mobile and fixed sources in urbanized and industrialized regions. The observed patterns in wet deposition fluxes of nitrate and sulfate are controlled by (1) natural hydro-climatic forcing, and (2) anthropogenic forcing (emissions and regulatory control), both of which are characterized by stochasticity and non-stationarity. We examine long-term wet deposition records in the U.S., Europe, and East Asia to evaluate how anthropogenic and natural forcing factors jointly contributed to the shifting temporal patterns of wet deposition fluxes at continental scales. These data offer clear evidence for successful implementation of regulatory controls and widespread adoption of technologies contributed to improving water quality and mitigation of adverse ecological impacts. We developed a stochastic model to project the future trajectories of wet deposition fluxes in emerging countries with fast growing urban areas. The model generates ellipses within which projected wet deposition flux trajectories are inscribed, similar to the trends in observational data. The shape of the ellipses provides information regarding the relative dominance of anthropogenic (e.g., industrial and urban emissions) versus hydro-climatic drivers (e.g., rainfall patterns, aridity index). Our analysis facilitates projections of the trajectory shift as a result of urbanization and other land-use changes, climate change, and regulatory enforcement. We use these observed data and the model to project likely trajectories for rapidly developing countries (BRIC), with a
Heithersay, G S
2016-09-01
In this the second of a series of life cycles of dental trauma victims, the short and particularly long-term responses of four survivors of either multiple luxation injuries or avulsions have been documented over periods varying up to 41 years. The development of ankylosis, either in the short or longer term post trauma, proved a common feature in the series and management strategies have been outlined. External invasive resorption was also identified as a complicating response for which the topical application of trichloracetic acid, intracanal dressing and root canal obturation proved effective in resorption management. Long-term observations indicate that some compromised teeth can be functionally and aesthetically retained for extended periods, but follow-up examinations are important so that treatment interventions can be implemented if adverse responses are diagnosed. © 2016 Australian Dental Association.
Stratospheric effects on trends of mesospheric ice clouds (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luebken, F.; Baumgarten, G.; Berger, U.
2009-12-01
Ice layers in the summer mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes appear as `noctilucent clouds' (NLC) and `polar mesosphere clouds'(PMC) when observed by optical methods from the ground or from satellites, respectively. A newly developed model of the atmosphere called LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) nicely reproduces the mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and is used to study the ice layer morphology (LIMA/ice). LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere and ice cloud morphology. Since ice layer formation is very sensitive to the thermal structure of the mesopause region the morphology of NLC and PMC is frequently discussed in terms of long term variations. Model runs of LIMA/ice are now available for 1961 until 2008. A strong correlation between temperatures and PMC altitudes is observed. Applied to historical measurements this gives negligible temperature trends at PMC altitudes (approximately 0.01-0.02 K/y). Trace gas concentrations are kept constant in LIMA except for water vapor which is modified by variable solar radiation. Still, long term trends in temperatures and ice layer parameters are observed, consistent with observations. We present results regarding inter-annual variability of upper mesosphere temperatures, water vapor, and ice clouds, and also long term variations. We compare our model results with satellite borne and lidar observations including some record high NLC parameters measured in the summer season of 2009. The latitudinal dependence of trends and ice layer parameters is discussed, including a NH/SH comparison. We will present an explanation of the trends in the background atmosphere and ice layer parameters.
Human impact on long-term organic carbon export to rivers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Noacco, Valentina; Wagener, Thorsten; Worrall, Fred; Burt, Tim P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.
2017-04-01
Anthropogenic landscape alterations have increased global carbon transported by rivers to oceans since preindustrial times. Few suitable observational data sets exist to distinguish different drivers of carbon increase, given that alterations only reveal their impact on fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) over long time periods. We use the world's longest record of DOC concentrations (130 years) to identify key drivers of DOC change in the Thames basin (UK). We show that 90% of the long-term rise in fluvial DOC is explained by increased urbanization, which released to the river 671 kt C over the entire period. This source of carbon is linked to rising population, due to increased sewage effluent. Soil disturbance from land use change explained shorter-term fluvial responses. The largest land use disturbance was during the Second World War, when almost half the grassland area in the catchment was converted into arable land, which released 45 kt C from soils to the river. Carbon that had built up in soils over decades was released to the river in only a few years. Our work suggests that widespread population growth may have a greater influence on fluvial DOC trends than previously thought.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.
1990-01-01
Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J.
Due to US air pollution regulations, aerosol and precursor emissions have decreased during recent decades, while changes in emissions in other regions of the world also influence US aerosol trends through long-range transport. We examine here the relative roles of these domestic and foreign emission changes on aerosol concentrations and direct radiative forcing (DRF) at the top of the atmosphere over the continental US. Long-term (1980-2014) trends and aerosol source apportionment are quantified in this study using a global aerosol-climate model equipped with an explicit aerosol source tagging technique. Due to US emission control policies, the annual mean near-surface concentrationmore » of particles, consisting of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic aerosol, decreases by about –1.1 (±0.1) / –1.4 (±0.1) μg m -3 in western US and –3.3 (±0.2) / –2.9 (±0.2) μg m -3 in eastern US during 2010–2014, as compared to those in 1980–1984. Meanwhile, decreases in US emissions lead to a warming of +0.48 (±0.03) / –0.46 (±0.03) W m -2 in western US and +1.41 (±0.07) /+1.32 (±0.09) W m -2 in eastern US through changes in aerosol DRF. Increases in emissions from East Asia generally have a modest impact on US air quality, but mitigated the warming effect induced by reductions in US emissions by 25% in western US and 7% in eastern US. Thus, as US domestic aerosol and precursor emissions continue to decrease, foreign emissions may become increasingly important to radiative forcing over the US.« less
Yang, Yang; Wang, Hailong; Smith, Steven J.; ...
2018-05-23
Due to US air pollution regulations, aerosol and precursor emissions have decreased during recent decades, while changes in emissions in other regions of the world also influence US aerosol trends through long-range transport. We examine here the relative roles of these domestic and foreign emission changes on aerosol concentrations and direct radiative forcing (DRF) at the top of the atmosphere over the continental US. Long-term (1980-2014) trends and aerosol source apportionment are quantified in this study using a global aerosol-climate model equipped with an explicit aerosol source tagging technique. Due to US emission control policies, the annual mean near-surface concentrationmore » of particles, consisting of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic aerosol, decreases by about –1.1 (±0.1) / –1.4 (±0.1) μg m -3 in western US and –3.3 (±0.2) / –2.9 (±0.2) μg m -3 in eastern US during 2010–2014, as compared to those in 1980–1984. Meanwhile, decreases in US emissions lead to a warming of +0.48 (±0.03) / –0.46 (±0.03) W m -2 in western US and +1.41 (±0.07) /+1.32 (±0.09) W m -2 in eastern US through changes in aerosol DRF. Increases in emissions from East Asia generally have a modest impact on US air quality, but mitigated the warming effect induced by reductions in US emissions by 25% in western US and 7% in eastern US. Thus, as US domestic aerosol and precursor emissions continue to decrease, foreign emissions may become increasingly important to radiative forcing over the US.« less
Geodesic and hydrogeophysic long term observations in the Durzon karstic aquifer (Larzac, France)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Le Moigne, Nicolas; Bayer, Roger; Boudin, Frederick; Champollion, Cedric; Chery, Jean; Collard, Philippe; Daignières, Marc; Deville, Sabrina; Doerflinger, Erik; Vernant, Philippe
2010-05-01
Karsts are generally characterized by high heterogeneity at all scales for both the water storage properties and the mode of water transport. The Durzon karst system is located in south of France and is characterized by a unsaturated zone of 100-150 m width. The water input is exclusively rainfall and draining occurs at the Durzon perennial spring in a karstic valley. The Durzon aquifer has been monitored by our group by different geophysical methods (gravimetry, tiltmetry, more details below) for several years. The present-day stage of the project is to setup long term observations to assess hydrological properties of the karst in a small area of 500m*500m with numerous caves (up to 100 m deep and more than 2 km of development). The observations are of four major types: - Continuous high frequency and high accuracy gravimetry: Gravimetric observations can be directly linked to the variations of water masses in the unsaturated zone. The iGrav™ Superconducting Gravity Meter from GWR (San Diego, USA) will be used to record continuous gravity variations and track water mass variations at a few millimeters level. The iGrav™ is a new SG model from GWR that has been simplified for portable and field operation, but retains the stability and precision of previous SGs. With a drift rate of less than 0.5 microGal/month and a virtually constant scale factory, the iGrav™ will provide a much higher stability and precision than can be achieved with mechanical spring-type gravity meters. - Water flux measurements (atmospheric and in-situ): A flux tower provides evapo-transpiration measurements (output) allowing complete budget calculation with the help of gravity (storage variations) and rainfall (input). An original measurement corresponds to the measure of the in-situ flow inside karstic caves (stalactites and underground river). - Tiltmetry: In situ (in caves) measurements are completed by long base silica tiltmeters. Tiltmeters are sensible to water storage in fractures
Schmidt, Morten; Pedersen, Susanne Bendesgaard; Farkas, Dóra Körmendiné; Hjortshøj, Søren Pihlkjær; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Nielsen, Jens Cosedis; Sørensen, Henrik Toft
2015-09-01
Long-term trends in use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) and outcomes are rare. We examined 13-year nationwide trends in ICD implantation and survival rates in Denmark. Using medical databases, we identified all first time ICD recipients in Denmark during 2000-2012 (N = 8460) and ascertained all-cause mortality. We computed standardized annual implantation rates and mortality rate ratios according to age, sex, comorbidity level, indication, and device type. The standardized annual implantation rate increased from 42 per million persons in 2000 to 213 per million persons in 2012 (from 34 to 174 for men and from 8 to 39 for women). The increase was driven by secondary prophylactic ICDs until 2006 and primary prophylactic ICDs thereafter. The increase occurred particularly in older patients and those with a high level of comorbidity. Independent of indication, 76% of all patients with ICD were alive after 5 years. Men had a higher mortality rate compared with women (mortality rate ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.49). Compared with low comorbidity level, moderate, severe, and very severe comorbidity levels were associated with 1.6-, 2.5-, and 4.9-fold increased mortality rates, respectively. The most influential individual comorbidities were heart failure, diabetes, liver disease, and renal disease. The annual implantation rate of ICDs increased 5-fold in Denmark between 2000 and 2012. The rate increase occurred for both men and women, but particularly in the elderly and patients with severe comorbidity. Five-year survival probability was high, but severe comorbidity and male sex were associated with shorter survival. Copyright © 2015 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies.
Mills, James A; Teplitsky, Céline; Arroyo, Beatriz; Charmantier, Anne; Becker, Peter H; Birkhead, Tim R; Bize, Pierre; Blumstein, Daniel T; Bonenfant, Christophe; Boutin, Stan; Bushuev, Andrey; Cam, Emmanuelle; Cockburn, Andrew; Côté, Steeve D; Coulson, John C; Daunt, Francis; Dingemanse, Niels J; Doligez, Blandine; Drummond, Hugh; Espie, Richard H M; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Frentiu, Francesca; Fitzpatrick, John W; Furness, Robert W; Garant, Dany; Gauthier, Gilles; Grant, Peter R; Griesser, Michael; Gustafsson, Lars; Hansson, Bengt; Harris, Michael P; Jiguet, Frédéric; Kjellander, Petter; Korpimäki, Erkki; Krebs, Charles J; Lens, Luc; Linnell, John D C; Low, Matthew; McAdam, Andrew; Margalida, Antoni; Merilä, Juha; Møller, Anders P; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nisbet, Ian C T; van Noordwijk, Arie J; Oro, Daniel; Pärt, Tomas; Pelletier, Fanie; Potti, Jaime; Pujol, Benoit; Réale, Denis; Rockwell, Robert F; Ropert-Coudert, Yan; Roulin, Alexandre; Sedinger, James S; Swenson, Jon E; Thébaud, Christophe; Visser, Marcel E; Wanless, Sarah; Westneat, David F; Wilson, Alastair J; Zedrosser, Andreas
2015-10-01
The recent trend for journals to require open access to primary data included in publications has been embraced by many biologists, but has caused apprehension amongst researchers engaged in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies. A worldwide survey of 73 principal investigators (Pls) with long-term studies revealed positive attitudes towards sharing data with the agreement or involvement of the PI, and 93% of PIs have historically shared data. Only 8% were in favor of uncontrolled, open access to primary data while 63% expressed serious concern. We present here their viewpoint on an issue that can have non-trivial scientific consequences. We discuss potential costs of public data archiving and provide possible solutions to meet the needs of journals and researchers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Noncontact ECG system for unobtrusive long-term monitoring.
McDonald, Neil J; Anumula, Harini A; Duff, Eric; Soussou, Walid
2012-01-01
This paper describes measurements made using an ECG system with QUASAR's capacitive bioelectrodes integrated into a pad system that is placed over a chair. QUASAR's capacitive bioelectrode has the property of measuring bioelectric potentials at a small separation from the body. This enables the measurement of ECG signals through fabric, without the removal of clothing or preparation of skin. The ECG was measured through the subject's clothing while the subject sat in the chair without any supporting action from the subject. The ECG pad system is an example of a high compliance system that places minimal requirements upon the subject and, consequently, can be used to generate a long-term record from ECG segments collected on a daily basis, providing valuable information on long-term trends in cardiac health.
OBS development for long term observation in the Marmara Sea, NW Turkey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Takahashi, Narumi; Shimizu, Satoshi; Maekawa, Takuya; Kalafat, Dogan; Pinar, Ali; Citak, Seckin; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki
2015-04-01
We have carried out a collaboration study between Japan and Turkey since 2013, which is one of SATREPS projects, "Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in The Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey". The main objective of this project is to reduce risk brought by earthquakes and tsunamis. In particular, the North Anatolian Fault system runs through the Marmara sea and it is expected that the seismic gap exists there according to past seismic studies. The details of seismicity distribution in the Marmara Sea is, however, still insufficient to construct fault model along the active faults. Therefore, we prepare ten ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) to realize long term observation. We aim to identify size and depth of seismogenic zones using micro seismicity. In addition, we need to cover relative broad area from off-shore Istanbul city to the western end of the Marmara Sea. To clear these conditions, OBS specifications we need are high dynamic range and low instrument noise to observe micro seismicity, low electrical consumption to realize long term observation of over one year, high cost performance to cover the broad area for OBS installation, low cost implementation, and good operability to treat by relatively small number of persons. All items, which are three components velocity sensor, batteries, a recorder, a GPS receiver, a transponder and its transducer to control OBS retrieval, a flasher and a beacon, are installed in the 17 inches glass sphere. The natural frequency of the velocity sensor is 4.5 Hz and the frequency range of our OBS is from 4.5 Hz to 250 Hz. Data sampling is selectable among 100 Hz, 250 Hz and 500 Hz. Because our OBS is deployed by free fall, accuracy of the OBS clock is essentially one of important factors, and it is less than 0.1 ppm. And the resolution of A/D conversion performed on the recorder is 24 bit and we keep the dynamic range of over 135 dB. These data is stored on a semiconductor memory and the capacity is over
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kishore, P.; Jyothi, S.; Basha, Ghouse; Rao, S. V. B.; Rajeevan, M.; Velicogna, Isabella; Sutterley, Tyler C.
2016-01-01
Changing rainfall patterns have significant effect on water resources, agriculture output in many countries, especially the country like India where the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture. Rainfall over India has large spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the variability in rainfall, spatial-temporal analyses of rainfall have been studied by using 107 (1901-2007) years of daily gridded India Meteorological Department (IMD) rainfall datasets. Further, the validation of IMD precipitation data is carried out with different observational and different reanalysis datasets during the period from 1989 to 2007. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project data shows similar features as that of IMD with high degree of comparison, whereas Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation data show similar features but with large differences, especially over northwest, west coast and western Himalayas. Spatially, large deviation is observed in the interior peninsula during the monsoon season with National Aeronautics Space Administration-Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA), pre-monsoon with Japanese 25 years Re Analysis (JRA-25), and post-monsoon with climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) reanalysis datasets. Among the reanalysis datasets, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) shows good comparison followed by CFSR, NASA-MERRA, and JRA-25. Further, for the first time, with high resolution and long-term IMD data, the spatial distribution of trends is estimated using robust regression analysis technique on the annual and seasonal rainfall data with respect to different regions of India. Significant positive and negative trends are noticed in the whole time series of data during the monsoon season. The northeast and west coast of the Indian region shows significant positive trends and negative trends over western Himalayas and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lahmiri, Salim
2015-11-01
The purpose of this study is to investigate long-range dependence in trend and short variation of stock market price and return series before, during, and after 2008 financial crisis. Variational mode decomposition (VMD), a newly introduced technique for signal processing, is adopted to decompose stock market data into a finite set of modes so as to obtain long term trends and short term movements of stock market data. Then, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and range scale (R/S) analysis are used to estimate Hurst exponent in each variational mode obtained from VMD. For both price and return series, the empirical results from twelve international stock markets show evidence that long term trends are persistent, whilst short term variations are anti-persistent before, during, and after 2008 financial crisis.
Long-term trends and health impact of PM2.5 and O3 in Tehran, Iran, 2006-2015.
Faridi, Sasan; Shamsipour, Mansour; Krzyzanowski, Michal; Künzli, Nino; Amini, Heresh; Azimi, Faramarz; Malkawi, Mazen; Momeniha, Fatemeh; Gholampour, Akbar; Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh; Naddafi, Kazem
2018-05-01
The main objectives of this study were (1) investigation of the temporal variations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ground level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations in Tehran megacity, the capital and most populous city in Iran, over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015, and (2) estimation of their long-term health effects including all-cause and cause-specific mortality. For the first goal, the data of PM 2.5 and O 3 concentrations, measured at 21 regulatory monitoring network stations in Tehran, were obtained and the temporal trends were investigated. The health impact assessment of PM 2.5 and O 3 was performed using the World Health Organization (WHO) AirQ+ software updated in 2016 by WHO European Centre for Environment and Health. Local baseline incidences in Tehran level were used to better reveal the health effects associated with PM 2.5 and O 3 . Our study showed that over 2006-2015, annual mean concentrations of PM 2.5 and O 3 varied from 24.7 to 38.8 μg m -3 and 35.4 to 76.0 μg m -3 , respectively, and were significantly declining in the recent 6 years (2010-2015) for PM 2.5 and 8 years (2008-2015) for O 3 . However, Tehran citizens were exposed to concentrations of annual PM 2.5 exceeding the WHO air quality guideline (WHO AQG) (10 μg m -3 ), U.S. EPA and Iranian standard levels (12 μg m -3 ) during entire study period. We estimated that long-term exposure to ambient PM 2.5 contributed to between 24.5% and 36.2% of mortality from cerebrovascular disease (stroke), 19.8% and 24.1% from ischemic heart disease (IHD), 13.6% and 19.2% from lung cancer (LC), 10.7% and 15.3% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 15.0% and 25.2% from acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI), and 7.6% and 11.3% from all-cause annual mortality in the time period. We further estimated that deaths from IHD accounted for most of mortality attributable to long-term exposure to PM 2.5 . The years of life lost (YLL) attributable to PM 2.5 was
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kukal, M.; Irmak, S.
2016-11-01
Due to their substantial spatio-temporal behavior, long-term quantification and analyses of important hydrological variables are essential for practical applications in water resources planning, evaluating the water use of agricultural crop production and quantifying crop evapotranspiration patterns and irrigation management vs. hydrologic balance relationships. Observed data at over 800 sites across the Great Plains of USA, comprising of 9 states and 2,307,410 km2 of surface area, which is about 30% of the terrestrial area of the USA, were used to quantify and map large-scale and long-term (1968-2013) spatial trends of air temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR), precipitation, grass-reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and aridity index (AI) at monthly, growing season and annual time steps. Air temperatures had a strong north to south increasing trend, with annual average varying from -1 to 24 °C, and growing season average temperature varying from 8 to 30 °C. DTR gradually decreased from western to eastern parts of the region, with a regional annual and growing season averages of 14.25 °C and 14.79 °C, respectively. Precipitation had a gradual shift towards higher magnitudes from west to east, with the average annual and growing season (May-September) precipitation ranging from 163 to 1486 mm and from 98 to 746 mm, respectively. ETo had a southwest-northeast decreasing trend, with regional annual and growing season averages of 1297 mm and 823 mm, respectively. AI increased from west to east, indicating higher humidity (less arid) towards the east, with regional annual and growing season averages of 0.49 and 0.44, respectively. The spatial datasets and maps for these important climate variables can serve as valuable background for climate change and hydrologic studies in the Great Plains region. Through identification of priority areas from the developed maps, efforts of the concerned personnel and agencies and resources can be diverted towards development
Long-term trends in shortgrass steppe vegetation during a 21-year period of increasing temperatures
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Alward, R.D.; Milchunas, D.G.; Detling, J.K.
Long-term weather records from the Central Plains Experimental Range revealed a general warming trend in average annual temperatures from 1971 through 1991. This was largely the result of a significant increase in mean annual minimum temperature (T{sub min}). Permanently marked vegetation quadrants were monitored for much of this same period. We constructed linear correlational models to assess relationships of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation with plant densities and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) within a grazing exclosure. Response variables correlated with T{sub min} included: (i) tiller densities of the dominant grass, Bouteloua gracilis, and other warm season grasses, (ii)more » forb densities and ANPP, and (iii) total ANPP. Responses correlated with T{sub max} included: (i) total basal cover and (ii) densities and ANPP of several species. Plant species diversity was correlated with spring precipitation. Some species responded to the interactive effects of spring temperatures and precipitation. This investigation suggests that shortgrass steppe vegetation may be sensitive to climate change and supports predictions that asymmetric changes in diurnal temperatures may be an important component of climate change.« less
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.
2017-12-01
The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deng, Junjun; Xing, Zhenyu; Zhuang, Bingliang; Du, Ke
2014-06-01
The rapid industrial development and urbanization has lead to increasing particulate matter pollution in the Cross Taiwan Strait Region, which has significant impacts on atmospheric visibility degradation. Long-term visibility trends in five typical cities over the cross-strait region (i.e., Xiamen and Fuzhou in the Western Taiwan Strait (WTS) region and Taipei, Taichung and Tainan in Taiwan) and its correlation with air quality and meteorological conditions were investigated using visibility and meteorological data during 1973-2011 and air pollution data during 2009-2011. For the entire period, the overall average visibilities in the WTS region were better than those in Taiwan, with an average of 16.8, 16.6, 8.5, 10.3 and 9.0 km in Fuzhou, Xiamen, Taipei, Taichung and Tainan, respectively. Decline trends with decreasing rates of - 0.5-0.1 km/yr existed in all cities except Taipei, which had an improvement in visibility after 1992. All seasons had decreasing trends during the 39-year period except in Taipei. The WTS region had the worse change trend compared with Taiwan. No statistically significant weekend effect in visibility is found over the region. Visibilities were better in summer and autumn, while worse in winter and spring. Correlation analysis revealed that significant negative correlations existed between visibility and NO2 and airborne particles (i.e., PM10 and PM2.5); PM2.5 played an important role in visibility degradation. High temperature and low pressure is beneficial for better visibility. Principal component analysis further confirmed the impacts of high concentrations of air pollutants, stable synoptic systems and humid air with high relative humidity on visibility impairment. In addition, case studies highlighted characteristics and potential causes of typical regional low visibility episodes over the region.
Multisource Estimation of Long-term Global Terrestrial Surface Radiation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peng, L.; Sheffield, J.
2017-12-01
Land surface net radiation is the essential energy source at the earth's surface. It determines the surface energy budget and its partitioning, drives the hydrological cycle by providing available energy, and offers heat, light, and energy for biological processes. Individual components in net radiation have changed historically due to natural and anthropogenic climate change and land use change. Decadal variations in radiation such as global dimming or brightening have important implications for hydrological and carbon cycles. In order to assess the trends and variability of net radiation and evapotranspiration, there is a need for accurate estimates of long-term terrestrial surface radiation. While large progress in measuring top of atmosphere energy budget has been made, huge discrepancies exist among ground observations, satellite retrievals, and reanalysis fields of surface radiation, due to the lack of observational networks, the difficulty in measuring from space, and the uncertainty in algorithm parameters. To overcome the weakness of single source datasets, we propose a multi-source merging approach to fully utilize and combine multiple datasets of radiation components separately, as they are complementary in space and time. First, we conduct diagnostic analysis of multiple satellite and reanalysis datasets based on in-situ measurements such as Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA), existing validation studies, and other information such as network density and consistency with other meteorological variables. Then, we calculate the optimal weighted average of multiple datasets by minimizing the variance of error between in-situ measurements and other observations. Finally, we quantify the uncertainties in the estimates of surface net radiation and employ physical constraints based on the surface energy balance to reduce these uncertainties. The final dataset is evaluated in terms of the long-term variability and its attribution to changes in individual
Halliburton, Amanda Elizabeth; Bray, Bethany Cara
2016-01-01
Inhalant use by adolescents is cause for concern due to the early age of inhalant use initiation and the many short- and long-term health consequences that can occur concurrently with and subsequent to use. However, inhalant use research has been limited relative to the literature available on other drug use. The present research examined long-term trends in inhalant use prevalence, demographic risk factors of inhalant use, and median grade level of first use. Monitoring the Future data from 1991 to 2011, which includes information drawn from United States eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders, were examined. The total sample comprised more than one million participants. Results were examined descriptively with figures and quantitatively with mixed-effects regression models of the effect of time on use rates. Inhalant use prevalence rates generally declined over the selected period. Though rates of use by males and females decreased significantly, the proportion of females among lifetime users increased significantly. Whites, Hispanics, and members of uncategorized "other" ethnicities showed the highest prevalence rates. Although the proportion of Whites among lifetime users decreased significantly, the proportion of Hispanics and "other" ethnicities increased significantly. The median first use was between sixth and ninth grade. Results suggest a need to tailor inhalant use treatment and prevention programs to the needs of specific demographic groups and to target interventions early to prevent youth inhalant use. Strengths, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.
Climate change and observed climate trends in the fort cobb experimental watershed.
Garbrecht, J D; Zhang, X C; Steiner, J L
2014-07-01
Recurring droughts in the Southern Great Plains of the United States are stressing the landscape, increasing uncertainty and risk in agricultural production, and impeding optimal agronomic management of crop, pasture, and grazing systems. The distinct possibility that the severity of recent droughts may be related to a greenhouse-gas induced climate change introduces new challenges for water resources managers because the intensification of droughts could represent a permanent feature of the future climate. Climate records of the Fort Cobb watershed in central Oklahoma were analyzed to determine if recent decade-long trends in precipitation and air temperature were consistent with climate change projections for central Oklahoma. The historical precipitation record did not reveal any compelling evidence that the recent 20-yr-long decline in precipitation was related to climate change. Also, precipitation projections by global circulation models (GCMs) displayed a flat pattern through the end of the 21st century. Neither observed nor projected precipitation displayed a multidecadal monotonic rising or declining trend consistent with an ongoing warming climate. The recent trend in observed annual precipitation was probably a decade-scale variation not directly related to the warming climate. On the other hand, the observed monotonic warming trend of 0.34°C decade that started around 1978 is consistent with GCM projections of increasing temperature for central Oklahoma. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
Solar Cycle Response and Long-Term Trends in the Mesospheric Metal Layers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Dawkins, E. C. M.; Plane, J. M. C.; Chipperfield, M.; Feng, W.; Marsh, D. R.; Hoffner, J.; Janches, D.
2016-01-01
The meteoric metal layers (Na, Fe, and K) which form as a result of the ablation of incoming meteors act as unique tracers for chemical and dynamical processes that occur within the upper mesosphere lower thermosphere region. In this work, we examine whether these metal layers are sensitive Fe indicators of decadal long-term changes within the upper atmosphere. Output from a whole-atmosphere climate model is used to assess the response of the Na, K, and Fe layers across a 50 year period (1955-2005). At short timescales, the K layer has previously been shown to exhibit a very different seasonal behavior compared to the other metals. Here we show that this unusual behavior is also exhibited at longer time scales (both the 11 year solar cycle and 50 year periods), where K displays a much more pronounced response to atmospheric temperature changes than either Na or Fe. The contrasting solar cycle behavior of the K and Na layers predicted by the model is confirmed using satellite and lidar observations for the period 2004-2013.
Long-term Internal Variability of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib
2016-04-01
The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. Further, such variability strengthens in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, which may further hinder detection of anthropogenic climate signals in that region.
Campbell, Suzanne; Nygård, Mari
2018-01-01
Objectives Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58. Design Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953–2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective potential of HPV vaccines. Participants and setting The Norwegian population. Primary outcome measures Incidence trend analyses during 1953–2015 for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix, vulva, vagina, oropharynx, anus and penis, and adenocarcinoma of the cervix. Additionally, the number of cancer cases preventable by HPV vaccination. Results Among women, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx, vulva and cervical adenocarcinoma increased, while vaginal SCC showed no trend. For these cancers combined, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) during 1953–2015 was 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). The incidence of cervical SCC generally decreased during 1976–2004 and remained stable thereafter. Among men, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx and penis increased. The AAPC during 1953–2015 combined for all male HPV-related cancer was 1.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.5). A vaccine against HPV 16/18 might yearly prevent 402 (95% CI 382 to 420) cancers. A vaccine against HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58 might yearly prevent 478 (95% CI 464 to 490) cancers, of which 206 (95% CI 202 to 209) occur in non-cervical organs, and 113 (95% CI 110 to 115) occur among men. Conclusions The incidences of HPV-related cancers that are not effectively prevented by screening have generally increased during 1953–2015. HPV vaccination can prevent a substantial number of cancers in Norway, in cervical and non-cervical organs, among women and men. PMID:29476028
Assessment of long-term WRF–CMAQ simulations for ...
Long-term simulations with the coupled WRF–CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting–Community Multi-scale Air Quality) model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx over the past 16 years (1995–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO2 and NOx associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Gan et al. (2014a) utilizing observations (e.g., SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE, and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US, while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aer
Long-term monitoring of high-elevation white pine communities in Pacific West Region National Parks
Shawn T. McKinney; Tom Rodhouse; Les Chow; Penelope Latham; Daniel Sarr; Lisa Garrett; Linda Mutch
2011-01-01
National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) networks conduct long-term monitoring to provide park managers information on the status and trends in key biological and environmental attributes (Vital Signs). Here we present an overview of a collaborative approach to long-term monitoring of high-elevation white pine forest dynamics among three Pacific West...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lavric, J. V.; Juurola, E.; Vermeulen, A. T.; Kutsch, W. L.
2016-12-01
In a world that is undergoing climate change and is increasingly impacted by human influence, the need for globally integrated observations of greenhouse gases (GHG) and independent evaluation of their fluxes is becoming increasingly pressing. Since the 2015 COP21 meeting in Paris, such observation systems are also demanded by global stakeholders and policy makers. For successful monitoring and implementation of mitigation measures, the behavior of natural carbon pools must be well understood, the human carbon emission inventories better constrained, and the interaction between the two better studied. The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), currently comprising 12 member countries, is a European domain-overarching distributed research infrastructure dedicated to providing freely accessible long-term, high-quality data and data products on greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets and their evolution in terrestrial ecosystems, oceans and atmosphere. ICOS was built on the foundations of nationally-operated in-situ measurement facilities and modelling efforts. Today, it consists of National Networks, Central Facilities, and the European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ICOS ERIC), founded in November 2015. The long-term objective of ICOS is to remain independent, sustainable, on the forefront of scientific and technological development, and to find a good balance between scientific interests on one side and expectations of policy makers and society on the other. On the global scale, ICOS seeks to interlink with complementary research infrastructures (e.g. ACTRIS, IAGOS, etc.) to form partnerships that maximize the output and the effect of invested resources to the benefit of all stakeholders. A lot of attention will also be given to network design and attracting new partners from regions where such observations are still lacking in order to fill the gaps in the global observation network. In this presentation we present the latest developments concerning ICOS and its
Long-term Photometric Variability in Kepler Full-frame Images: Magnetic Cycles of Sun–like Stars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Montet, Benjamin T.; Tovar, Guadalupe; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel
2017-12-01
Photometry from the Kepler mission is optimized to detect small, short-duration signals like planet transits at the expense of long-term trends. This long-term variability can be recovered in photometry from the full-frame images (FFIs), a set of calibration data collected approximately monthly during the Kepler mission. Here we present f3, an open-source package to perform photometry on the Kepler FFIs in order to detect changes in the brightness of stars in the Kepler field of view over long time baselines. We apply this package to a sample of 4000 Sun–like stars with measured rotation periods. We find that ≈10% of these targets have long-term variability in their observed flux. For the majority of targets, we find that the luminosity variations are either correlated or anticorrelated with the short-term variability due to starspots on the stellar surface. We find a transition between anticorrelated (starspot-dominated) variability and correlated (facula-dominated) variability between rotation periods of 15 and 25 days, suggesting the transition between the two modes is complete for stars at the age of the Sun. We also identify a sample of stars with apparently complete cycles, as well as a collection of short-period binaries with extreme photometric variation over the Kepler mission.
Long-term observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations in Barbados
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pöhlker, Mira L.; Klimach, Thomas; Krüger, Ovid O.; Hrabe de Angelis, Isabella; Ditas, Florian; Praß, Maria; Holanda, Bruna; Su, Hang; Weber, Bettina; Pöhlker, Christopher; Farrell, David A.; Stevens, Bjorn; Prospero, Joseph M.; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Pöschl, Ulrich
2017-04-01
Long-term observation of atmospheric aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations has been conducted at the Ragged Point site in Barbados since August 2016. Ragged Point is a well-established station to monitor the transatlantic transport of Saharan dust outbreaks [1]. In the absence of dust plumes, it represents an ideal site to analyze the maritime boundary layer aerosol that is transported with the trade winds over the Atlantic towards Barbados [2,3]. Broad aerosol size distribution (10 nm to 10 µm) as well as size-resolved CCN measurements at 10 different supersaturations from 0.05 % to 0.84 % have been conducted. The continuous online analyses are supplemented by intensive sampling periods to probe specific aerosol properties with various offline techniques (i.e., microscopy and spectroscopy). Aerosol key properties from our measurements are compared with the continuous and in depth observation of cloud properties at Deebles Point, which is in close neighborhood to the Ragged Point site [2]. Moreover, our activities have been synchronized with the HALO-NARVAL-2 aircraft campaign in August 2016 that added further detailed information on shallow cumulus clouds, which are characteristic for the Atlantic trade winds and represent a crucial factor in the Earth climate system. Our measurements have the following two focal points: (i) We aim to obtain a detailed CCN climatology for the alternation of maritime and dust-impacted episodes at this unique coastal location. This study will complement our recent in-depth analysis for the long-term CCN variability at a remote rain forest location [4]. (ii) Furthermore, we aim to collect detailed information on the role of different aerosol populations on the properties of the climatically important shallow cumulus clouds. References: [1] Prospero, J. M., Collard, F. X., Molinie, J., Jeannot, A. (2014), Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 28, 757-773. [2] Stevens, B., et al. (2016), Bulletin of the American
Observations of Europe wide Trends in background and peak O3, CO and NO2 levels
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleming, Z. L.; Monks, P. S.; Brunsdon, C.; Henne, S.; Buchmann, B.; Konovalov, I.; Beekman, M.
2009-04-01
The GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and MONitoring) project has produced a harmonised data set of trace gases from various ground-based measurement stations. These stations belong to a variety of regional, national and European air quality networks (e.g. EMEP, GAW). Investigations into instrumental calibration and data quality have been carried out in order to make comparison between the sites as accurate as possible for a long time-scale trend analysis. Ozone seasonal cycles at the various sites have been compared, showing characteristic cycles according to latitude, elevation, vicinity to coastal areas and pollution sources and population nearby. A de-trending of this seasonal cycle revealed long-term variations in ozone and a considerable difference between background and peak ozone trends between sites. National, European and international legislation has aimed at reducing CO and NO2 and correspondingly, reduce O3 levels over the last 20 years but the trends are not as clear cut and reveal that there is not a homogeneous reduction in these species across Europe. Splitting the data into seasonal periods and also into lower and upper concentration percentiles shows us more clearly how the species vary across Europe. There is a tendency for peak ozone levels to decrease, whilst the background levels have mostly increased. Averages, lower and upper percentiles of these species at the GEOMON stations are shown on European maps and the distribution of annual ozone trends is evaluated. Comparisons with models that estimate the lower and upper percentiles of ozone during summer overestimate ozone levels but not uniformly across Europe.
Long-term neurological outcomes in West Nile virus-infected patients: an observational study.
Weatherhead, Jill E; Miller, Vicki E; Garcia, Melissa N; Hasbun, Rodrigo; Salazar, Lucrecia; Dimachkie, Mazen M; Murray, Kristy O
2015-05-01
The Houston West Nile Cohort (HWNC) was founded in 2002 when West Nile virus (WNV) reached Houston, TX. The long-term outcomes following WNV infection are still mostly unknown, though neurological abnormalities up to 1 year postinfection have been documented. We report an observational study of neurological abnormalities at 1-3 and 8-11 years following WNV infection in the HWNC. We conducted standard neurological examinations at two separate time points to assess changes in neurological status over time. The majority of patients (86%, 30/35) with encephalitis had abnormal neurological exam findings at the time of the first assessment compared with uncomplicated fever (27%, 3/11) and meningitis (36%, 5/14) cases. At the time of the second assessment, 57% (4/7) of West Nile fever (WNF), 33% (2/6) of West Nile meningitis (WNM), and 36% (5/14) of West Nile encephalitis (WNE) had developed new neurological complications. The most common abnormalities noted were tandem gait, hearing loss, abnormal reflexes, and muscle weakness. Long-term neurological abnormalities were most commonly found in patients who experienced primary WNV encephalitis. New abnormalities may develop over time regardless of initial clinical infection. Future studies should aim to differentiate neurological consequences due to WNV neuroinvasive infection versus neurological decline related to comorbid conditions. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Trends in statewide long-range transportation plans : core and emerging topics in 2017
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2017-10-01
This report synthesizes key findings and trends from the 2017 Statewide Long-Range Transportation Plan (SLRTP) Database, which represents key observations identified through a review of all 52 SLRTPs and Statewide Transportation Improvement Programs ...
Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Daithi Stone,
2014-01-01
While the SST trend mode has resulted in large SST increases that appear associated with an equatorial precipitation dipole response contrasting increases over the western Pacific and decreases over the central Pacific, the location of most of this warming is to the west of the key sensitivity areas identified in our CMIP5 composite. Removing this warming did not increase the CAM5 precipitation over California in a statistically significant manner, thus there appears to be little evidence that this long term warming trend contributed substantially to the 2013 and 2014 drought events. This result appears consistent with the lack of a long term downward trend in California precipitation. California precipitation does appear to be sensitive to north Pacific SST, and climate change models indicate substantial warming. If SST events like the unprecedented 2014 north Pacific SST anomaly become more common, California could also experience more frequent droughts. In addition, given the strong thermal control on evaporation, snowmelt, and water resources in California, the long-term warming is continuing to exert a growing stress on water availability.
Long-term outcomes after severe shock.
Pratt, Cristina M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Kuttler, Kathryn G; Lanspa, Michael J; Wilson, Emily L; Hopkins, Ramona O; Brown, Samuel M
2015-02-01
Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 μg/kg per minute of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured 3-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years; 82% (62 of 76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of 5 years after hospital admission. The patients' Physical Functioning scores were below U.S. population norms (P < 0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety, and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full-time. Early survivors of severe shock had a high 3-year survival rate. Patients' long-term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill intensive care unit survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term outcomes. Even extremely
Minella, Marco; Rogora, Michela; Vione, Davide; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio
2011-08-15
A model-based approach is here developed and applied to predict the long-term trends of indirect photochemical processes in the surface layer (5m water depth) of Lake Maggiore, NW Italy. For this lake, time series of the main parameters of photochemical importance that cover almost two decades are available. As a way to assess the relevant photochemical reactions, the modelled steady-state concentrations of important photogenerated transients ((•)OH, ³CDOM* and CO₃(-•)) were taken into account. A multivariate analysis approach was adopted to have an overview of the system, to emphasise relationships among chemical, photochemical and seasonal variables, and to highlight annual and long-term trends. Over the considered time period, because of the decrease of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content of water and of the increase of alkalinity, a significant increase is predicted for the steady-state concentrations of the radicals (•)OH and CO₃(-•). Therefore, the photochemical degradation processes that involve the two radical species would be enhanced. Another issue of potential photochemical importance is related to the winter maxima of nitrate (a photochemical (•)OH source) and the summer maxima of DOC ((•)OH sink and ³CDOM* source) in the lake water under consideration. From the combination of sunlight irradiance and chemical composition data, one predicts that the processes involving (•)OH and CO₃(-•) would be most important in spring, while the reactions involving ³CDOM* would be most important in summer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne; Kumar, Sujay; Xie, Shaocheng; Eastman, Joseph L.; Shie, Chung-Lin;
2006-01-01
Two 20-day, continental midlatitude cases are simulated with a three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving model (CRM) and compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data. This evaluation of long-term cloud-resolving model simulations focuses on the evaluation of clouds and surface fluxes. All numerical experiments, as compared to observations, simulate surface precipitation well but over-predict clouds, especially in the upper troposphere. The sensitivity of cloud properties to dimensionality and other factors is studied to isolate the origins of the over prediction of clouds. Due to the difference in buoyancy damping between 2D and 3D models, surface precipitation fluctuates rapidly with time, and spurious dehumidification occurs near the tropopause in the 2D CRM. Surface fluxes from a land data assimilation system are compared with ARM observations. They are used in place of the ARM surface fluxes to test the sensitivity of simulated clouds to surface fluxes. Summertime simulations show that surface fluxes from the assimilation system bring about a better simulation of diurnal cloud variation in the lower troposphere.
Trends in Classroom Observation Scores
Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.
2014-01-01
Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System–Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters’ initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time. PMID:29795823
Trends in Classroom Observation Scores.
Casabianca, Jodi M; Lockwood, J R; McCaffrey, Daniel F
2015-04-01
Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters' initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time.
Long-term variability of the thunderstorm and hail potential in Europe
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohr, Susanna; Kunz, Michael; Speidel, Johannes; Piper, David
2016-04-01
Severe thunderstorms and associated hazardous weather events such as hail frequently cause considerable damage to buildings, crops, and automobiles, resulting in large monetary costs in many parts of Europe and the world. To relate single extreme hail events to the historic context and to estimate their return periods and possible trends related to climate change, long-term statistics of hail events are required. Due to the local-scale nature of hail and a lack of suitable observation systems, however, hailstorms are not captured reliably and comprehensively for a long period of time. In view of this fact, different proxies (indirect climate data) obtained from sounding stations and regional climate models can be used to infer the probability and intensity of thunderstorms or hailstorms. In contrast to direct observational data, such proxies are available homogeneously over a long time period. The aim of the study is to investigate the potential for severe thunderstorms and their changes over past decades. Statistical analyses of sounding data show that the convective potential over the past 20 - 30 years has significantly increased over large parts of Central Europe, making severe thunderstorms more likely. A similar picture results from analyses of weather types that are most likely associated with damaging hailstorms. These weather patterns have increased, even if only slightly but nevertheless statistically significantly, in the time period from 1971 to 2000. To improve the diagnostics of hail events in regional climate models, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. The model is based on a combination of appropriate hail-relevant meteorological parameters. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index (PHI). Applied to a high-resolved reanalysis run for Europe driven by NCEP/NCAR1, long-term changes of the PHI for
Trend in Air Quality of Kathmandu Valley: A Satellite, Observation and Modelling Perspective
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mahapatra, P. S.; Praveen, P. S.; Adhikary, B.; Panday, A. K.; Putero, D.; Bonasoni, P.
2016-12-01
Kathmandu (floor area of 340 km2) in Nepal is considered to be a `hot spot' of urban air pollution in South Asia. Its structure as a flat basin surrounded by tall mountains provides a unique case study for analyzing pollution trapped by topography. Only a very small number of cities with similar features have been studied extensively including Mexico and Santiago-de-Chile. This study presents the trend in satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS AQUA and TERRA (3x3km, Level 2) over Kathmandu from 2000 to 2015. Trend analysis of AOD shows 35% increase during the study period. Determination of the background pollution would reveal the contribution of only Kathmandu Valley for the observation period. For this, AOD at 1340m altitude outside Kathmandu, but nearby areas were considered as background. This analysis was further supported by investigating AOD at different heights around Kathmandu as well as determining AOD from CALIPSO vertical profiles. These analysis suggest that background AOD contributed 30% in winter and 60% in summer to Kathmandu Valley's observed AOD. Thereafter the background AOD was subtracted from total Kathmandu AOD to determine contribution of only Kathmandu Valley's AOD. Trend analysis of only Kathmandu Valley AOD (subtracting background AOD) suggested an increase of 50% during the study period. Further analysis of Kathmandu's visibility and AOD suggest profound role of background AOD on decreasing visibility. In-situ Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration measurements (BC being used as a proxy for surface observations) at two sites within Kathmandu valley have been analyzed. Kathmandu valley lacks long term trends of ambient air quality measurement data. Therefore, surface observations would be coupled with satellite measurements for understanding the urban air pollution scenario. Modelling studies to estimate the contribution of background pollution to Kathmandu's own pollution as well as the weekend effect on air quality will
Trends in Classroom Observation Scores
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.
2015-01-01
Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kotsakis, A.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.; Jeon, W.; Flynn, J. H., III
2017-12-01
From the years 2000 to 2014, Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) has seen a decrease in ozone exceedances due to decreased emissions of ozone precursors. In this study, a wind pattern analysis was done to gain a better understanding of the meteorological patterns that have historically contributed to ozone exceedances over the DFW area. Long-term trends in ozone and the seasonal distribution of ozone exceedances were analyzed using surface monitoring data. Using a clustering algorithm called self-organizing maps, characteristic regional wind patterns from 2000-2014 were determined. For each of the wind pattern clusters, the frequency over the last 15 years and average ozone from monitors across DFW was analyzed. Finally, model simulations were performed to determine if pollution transported out of Houston affected incoming background ozone into DFW.
Very long-term sequelae of craniopharyngioma.
Wijnen, Mark; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; Catsman-Berrevoets, Coriene E; Michiels, Erna M C; van Veelen-Vincent, Marie-Lise C; Dallenga, Alof H G; van den Berge, J Herbert; van Rij, Carolien M; van der Lely, Aart-Jan; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M
2017-06-01
Studies investigating long-term health conditions in patients with craniopharyngioma are limited by short follow-up durations and generally do not compare long-term health effects according to initial craniopharyngioma treatment approach. In addition, studies comparing long-term health conditions between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma report conflicting results. The objective of this study was to analyse a full spectrum of long-term health effects in patients with craniopharyngioma according to initial treatment approach and age group at craniopharyngioma presentation. Cross-sectional study based on retrospective data. We studied a single-centre cohort of 128 patients with craniopharyngioma treated from 1980 onwards (63 patients with childhood-onset disease). Median follow-up since craniopharyngioma presentation was 13 years (interquartile range: 5-23 years). Initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches included gross total resection ( n = 25), subtotal resection without radiotherapy ( n = 44), subtotal resection with radiotherapy ( n = 25), cyst aspiration without radiotherapy ( n = 8), and 90 Yttrium brachytherapy ( n = 21). Pituitary hormone deficiencies (98%), visual disturbances (75%) and obesity (56%) were the most common long-term health conditions observed. Different initial craniopharyngioma treatment approaches resulted in similar long-term health effects. Patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma experienced significantly more growth hormone deficiency, diabetes insipidus, panhypopituitarism, morbid obesity, epilepsy and psychiatric conditions compared with patients with adult-onset disease. Recurrence-/progression-free survival was significantly lower after initial craniopharyngioma treatment with cyst aspiration compared with other therapeutic approaches. Survival was similar between patients with childhood- and adult-onset craniopharyngioma. Long-term health conditions were comparable after
Apical root resorption caused by orthodontic forces: A brief review and a long-term observation.
Topkara, Ahu; Karaman, Ali I; Kau, Chung H
2012-10-01
External apical root resorption (ARR) is a common iatrogenic consequence of orthodontic treatment. One of the aims of this article is to present a brief overview of the literature, including; diagnosis and etiology, with emphasis on orthodontic forces to facilitate an understand of the prevention or management of ARR in orthodontic patients. We also present a long-term follow-up observation of severe ARR, including the last obtained cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) records, to demonstrate the effect of orthodontic forces on ARR.
Relating traffic fatalities to GDP in Europe on the long term.
Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Lassarre, Sylvain
2016-07-01
Modeling road safety development can provide important insight into policies for the reduction of traffic fatalities. In order to achieve this goal, both the quantifiable impact of specific parameters, as well as the underlying trends that cannot always be measured or observed, need to be considered. One of the key relationships in road safety links fatalities with risk and exposure, where exposure reflects the amount of travel, which in turn translates to how much travelers are exposed to risk. In general two economic variables: GDP and unemployment rate are selected to analyse the statistical relationships with some indicators of road accident fatality risk. The objective of this research is to provide an overview of relevant literature on the topic and outline some recent developments in macro-panel data analysis that have resulted in ongoing research that has the potential to improve our ability to forecast traffic fatality trends, especially under turbulent financial situations. For this analysis, time series of the number of fatalities and GDP in 30 European countries for a period of 38 years (1975-2012) are used. This process relies on estimating long-term models (as captured by long term time-series models, which model each country separately). Based on these developments, utilizing state-of-the-art modelling and analysis techniques such as the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimator (Pesaran), the long-term elasticity mean value equals 0.63, and is significantly different from zero for 10 countries only. When we take away the countries, where the number of fatalities is stationary, the average elasticity takes a higher value of nearly 1. This shows the strong sensitivity of the estimate of the average elasticity over a panel of European countries and underlines the necessity to be aware of the underlying nature of the time series, to get a suitable regression model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Long-term and storm-related shoreline change trends in the Florida Gulf Islands National Seashore
Hapke, C.J.; Christiano, M.
2007-01-01
Coastal erosion on Northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands is an ongoing issue that was exacerbated by the storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 when several hurricanes made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Two units of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), located on Santa Rosa Island, a barrier island off the Panhandle coast of Florida, were highly impacted during the hurricanes of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita). In addition to the loss of or damage to natural and cultural resources within the park, damage to park infrastructure, including park access roads and utilities, occurred in areas experiencing rapid shoreline retreat. The main park road was located as close as 50 m to the pre-storm (2001) shoreline and was still under repair from damage incurred during Hurricane Ivan when the 2005 hurricanes struck. A new General Management Plan is under development for the Gulf Islands National Seashore. This plan, like the existing General Management Plan, strives to incorporate natural barrier island processes, and will guide future efforts to provide access to units of Gulf Islands National Seashore on Santa Rosa Island. To assess changes in island geomorphology and provide data for park management, the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey are currently analyzing shoreline change to better understand long-term (100+ years) shoreline change trends as well as short-term shoreline impact and recovery to severe storm events. Results show that over an ~140-year period from the late 1800s to May 2004, the average shoreline erosion rates in the Fort Pickens and Santa Rosa units of GUIS were -0.7m/yr and -0.1 m/yr, respectively. Areas of historic erosion, reaching a maximum rate of -1.3 m/yr, correspond to areas that experienced overwash and road damage during the 2004 hurricane season. The shoreline eroded as much as ~60 m during Hurricane Ivan, and as much as ~88 m over the course of the 2005 storm season. The shoreline erosion rates in
Long-term and Storm-related Shoreline Change Trends in the Florida Gulf Islands National Seashore
Hapke, Cheryl J.; Christiano, Mark
2007-01-01
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Coastal erosion on Northern Gulf of Mexico barrier islands is an ongoing issue that was exacerbated by the storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 when several hurricanes made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Two units of the Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS), located on Santa Rosa Island, a barrier island off the Panhandle coast of Florida, were highly impacted during the hurricanes of 2004 (Ivan) and 2005 (Cindy, Dennis, Katrina and Rita). In addition to the loss of or damage to natural and cultural resources within the park, damage to park infrastructure, including park access roads and utilities, occurred in areas experiencing rapid shoreline retreat. The main park road was located as close as 50 m to the pre-storm (2001) shoreline and was still under repair from damage incurred during Hurricane Ivan when the 2005 hurricanes struck. A new General Management Plan is under development for the Gulf Islands National Seashore. This plan, like the existing General Management Plan, strives to incorporate natural barrier island processes, and will guide future efforts to provide access to units of Gulf Islands National Seashore on Santa Rosa Island. To assess changes in island geomorphology and provide data for park management, the National Park Service and the U.S. Geological Survey are currently analyzing shoreline change to better understand long-term (100+ years) shoreline change trends as well as short-term shoreline impact and recovery to severe storm events. Results show that over an ~140-year period from the late 1800s to May 2004, the average shoreline erosion rates in the Fort Pickens and Santa Rosa units of GUIS were -0.7m/yr and -0.1 m/yr, respectively. Areas of historic erosion, reaching a maximum rate of -1.3 m/yr, correspond to areas that experienced overwash and road damage during the 2004 hurricane season.. The shoreline eroded as much as ~60 m during Hurricane Ivan, and as much as ~88 m over the course of the 2005 storm season. The
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rieder, Harald E.; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Rocco, Stefania Di; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Joerg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; de Backer, Hugo; Koehler, Ulf; Krzyścin, Janusz; Vaníček, Karel
2011-11-01
We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear ‘fingerprints’ of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector.
Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.
Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka
2015-08-01
Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cross, B.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Cooper, A.; Bailey, H. J.; Rucker, M.
2013-12-01
The use of wind power is growing rapidly in the Pacific Northwest (PNW ) due to environmental concerns, decreasing costs of implementation, strong wind speeds, and a desire to diversify electricity sources to minimize the impacts of streamflow variability on electricity prices and system flexibility. In hydroelectric dominated systems, like the PNW, the benefits of wind power can be maximized by accounting for the relationship between long term variability in wind speeds and reservoir inflows. Clean energy policies in British Columbia make the benefits of increased wind power generation during low streamflow periods particularly large, by preventing the overbuilding of marginal hydroelectric projects. The goal of this work was to quantify long-term relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior in British Columbia. Wind speed data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and cumulative usable inflows (CUI) from BC Hydro were used to analyze 10m wind speed and density (WD) trends, WD-CUI correlations, and WD anomalies during low and high inflow periods in the PNW (40°N to 65°N, 110°W to 135°W) from 1979-2010. Statistically significant positive wind speed and density trends were found for most of the PNW, with the largest increases along the Pacific Coast. CUI-WD correlations were weakly positive for most regions, with the highest values along the US coast (r ~0.55), generally weaker correlations to the north, and negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC's North Coast. When considering seasonal relationships, the Spring freshet was coincident with lower WD anomalies west of the Rocky Mountains and higher WDs to the east. A similar but opposite pattern was observed for low inflow winter months. When considering interannual variability, lowest inflow years experienced positive WD anomalies (up to 40% increases) for the North Coast. In highest inflow years, positive WD anomalies were widespread in the US and for smaller patches of central BC
Long-term soil moisture patterns in a northern Minnesota forest
Salli F. Dymond; Randall K. Kolka; Paul V. Bolstad; Stephen D. Sebestyen
2014-01-01
Forest hydrological and biogeochemical processes are highly dependent on soil water. At the Marcell Experimental Forest, seasonal patterns of soil moisture have been monitored at three forested locations since 1966. This unique, long-term data set was used to analyze seasonal trends in soil moisture as well as the influence of time-lagged precipitation and modified...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chevalier, A.; Gheusi, F.; Attié, J.-L.; Delmas, R.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Cousin, J.-M.
2008-02-01
Continuous CO measurements performed at 3 high-altitude stations in France are analyzed for the first time. Data are provided by the new PAES (Pollution Atmospherique à l'Echelle Synoptique) network since 2002 for the Puy de Dôme and 2004 for the Pic du Midi and the Donon. CO measurements of 5 another European stations have been analysed to put the PAES stations in an European perspective. The January 2002-April 2005 CO mean levels of surface stations capture the stratification revealed by climatological CO profiles from the airborne observation system MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and water vapour by Airbus In-service Aircraft). The deviation between the free tropospheric reference MOZAIC and surface data above 2000 m is less than 10% and this deviation can be explained in term of spatial variability, as evidenced by MOPITT CO retrievals at 700 hPa. This suggests that, averaged at a seasonal time scale (4 months), surface data at stations above 2000 m are representative of background CO concentration. This paper focuses then on trends since the 1980s-1990s. The comparison between old (1982-1983) and recent CO mixing ratio (2005) at the Pic du Midi leads to a 10% decrease, consistent with the continuous data series at Zugspitze (ZSP) from 1991 to 2004. This decrease was found to be mainly due to a negative trend of January-April mean levels. The decrease in CO sources over France and Europe appears to be responsible for that trend. The stable values of June-September mean levels suggest that the summertime oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere related to OH radicals is important enough to counterbalance any CO inputs into the troposphere. Our study shows a recent change in CO evolution since 2000 over Western Europe, with a slowed down decrease in CO concentration. Studying specifically the interactions between CO, CH4 and OH turns out to be needed, however, to find definitive explanations to those observations.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, X.; Friedl, M. A.; Yu, Y.
2013-12-01
Land surface phenology metrics are widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and have been shown to be valuable for monitoring terrestrial ecosystem dynamics in response to extreme climate events and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. While the response of spring vegetation greenup to climate warming at mid-to-high latitudes is well-documented, understanding of diverse phenological responses to climate change over entire growing cycles and at broad geographic scales is incomplete. Many studies assume that the timing of individual phenological indicators in responses to climate forcing is independent of phenological events that occur at other times during the growing season. In this paper we use a different strategy. Specifically, we hypothesize that integrating sequences of key phenological indicators across growing seasons provides a more effective way to capture long-term variation in phenology in response to climate change. To explore this hypothesis we use global land surface phenology metrics derived from the Version 3 Long Term Vegetation Index Products from Multiple Satellite Data Records data set to examine interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology from 1982-2010. Using daily enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we model the phenological trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models. The modeled trajectories were then used to detect phenological indicators including the onset of greenness increase, the onset of greenness maximum, the onset of greenness decrease, the onset of greenness minimum, and the growing season length, among others at global scale. The quality of land surface phenology detection for individual pixels was calculated based on metrics that characterize the EVI quality and model fits in annual time series at each pixel. Phenological indicators characterized as having good quality were then
Trends in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the great lakes atmosphere.
Sun, Ping; Blanchard, Pierrette; Brice, Kenneth A; Hites, Ronald A
2006-10-15
Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations were measured in both the vapor and particle phases at seven sites near the Great Lakes as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network. Lower molecular weight PAHs, including fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthrene, and pyrene, were dominant in the vapor phase, and higher molecular weight PAHs, including chrysene, benzo[a]pyrene, and coronene, were dominant in the particle phase. The highest PAH concentrations in both the vapor and particle phases were observed in Chicago followed by the semiurban site at Sturgeon Point, NY. The spatial difference of PAH concentrations can be explained by the local population density. Long-term decreasing trends of most PAH concentrations were observed in both the vapor and particle phases at Chicago, with half-lives ranging from 3-10 years in the vapor phase and 5-15 years in the particle phase. At Eagle Harbor, Sleeping Bear Dunes, and Sturgeon Point, total PAH concentrations in the vapor phase showed significant, but slow, long-term decreasing trends. At the Sturgeon Point site, which was impacted by a nearby city, particle-phase PAH concentrations also declined. However, most particle-phase PAH concentrations did not show significant long-term decreasing trends at the remote sites. Seasonal trends were also observed for particle-phase PAH concentrations, which were higher in the winter and lower in the summer.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jackson, C. R.; Webster, J. R.; Knoepp, J. D.; Elliott, K.; Emanuel, R. E.; Miniat, C.
2017-12-01
In the 1970s, the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory Watershed 7 was clearcut from ridge to ridge to observe how far the perturbation would move the ecosystem and how quickly the ecosystem would return to its pre-disturbance state. Nearly 40 years of observations of streamflow and DIN export demonstrate that this view of ecosystem resistance and resilience was too simplistic. Forest disturbance triggered a chain of ecological dynamics that are still evolving. For the first 12 years following watershed road building, forest harvest, and forest regeneration, streamflows and DIN concentrations temporarily increased and then appeared to return to pre-harvest behavior. Thereupon the ecosystem trajectory diverged from expectations. Unexpected successional changes in forest composition interacted with drought cycles, climate change effects, and forest changes due to pests and diseases to push the biogeochemical system into an alternate state featuring persistently high DIN concentrations and hydrological rather than biological control of DIN exports. Thirty years after harvest, these forest changes also increased evapotranspiration and reduced water yields. These ecosystem dynamics were only revealed because of long-term monitoring, and they inspired new research to elucidate mechanisms behind these dynamics. We conclude that long-term approaches are critical for understanding ecosystem dynamics and responses to disturbances.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hernández Paniagua, Iván Y.; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto
2017-07-01
Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O3 and odd oxygen (O3 + NO2) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in Ox (AVd) are used as a proxy for net O3 production, which is influenced by the NO2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AVd are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AVd values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0.33 ppb yr-1. Overall, from 1993 to 2014, within the MMA, O3 has increased at an average rate of 0.22 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 01), which is in marked contrast with the decline of 1.15 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 001) observed in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) for the same period. No clear trend is observed from 1996 to 2014 within the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA).
Damalas, Dimitrios; Maravelias, Christos D.; Osio, Giacomo C.; Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo
2015-01-01
We investigate long-term changes in the Mediterranean marine resources driving the trawl fisheries by analysing fishers’ perceptions (Traditional Ecological Knowledge, TEK) throughout the Mediterranean Sea during the last 80 years. To this end, we conducted an extended set of interviews with experienced fishers that enabled us to classify species (or taxa) as ‘decreasing’ or ‘increasing’ both in terms of abundance, as well as average size in the catch. The aspect that most clearly emerged in all the investigated areas over time was the notable increase of fishing capacity indicators, such as engine power and fishing depth range. Atlantic mackerel, poor cod, scorpionfishes, striped seabream, and John Dory demonstrated a decreasing trend in the fishers’ perceived abundance, while Mediterranean parrotfish, common pandora, cuttlefish, blue and red shrimp, and mullets gave indications of an increasing temporal trend. Although, as a rule, trawler captains did not report any cataclysmic changes (e.g. extinctions), when they were invited to estimate total catches, a clear decreasing pattern emerged; this being a notable finding taking into account the steep escalation of fishing efficiency during the past century. The overall deteriorating status of stocks in most Mediterranean regions calls for responsible management and design of rebuilding plans. This should include historical information accounting for past exploitation patterns that could help defining a baseline of fish abundance prior to heavy industrial fisheries exploitation. PMID:25781459
Long-term (2005-2015) trend analysis of PM2.5 precursor gas NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Taiwan.
Lee, Chih-Sheng; Chang, Ken-Hui; Kim, Hyunook
2018-05-26
Ground air monitoring stations have been installed in Taiwan since 1993 to ensure whether the criteria air pollutants meet the ambient air quality standards. In the present study, the data from the monitoring stations were used to evaluate long-term (2005-2015) trend of NO 2 and SO 2 in three metropolitan cities (northern Taipei, central Taichung, and southern Kaohsiung), two eastern coastal cities (Hualien and Taitung), and one agricultural city in west-central plain (Douliu); those cities essentially covered the entire region of Taiwan. The results indicate that SO 2 and NO 2 concentrations of all studied six cities meet the annual average standards of 30 and 50 ppb, respectively. After deseasonalizing the original data and using 7-month moving average, the trend analysis reveals a decreasing trend ranging from 0.15 to 0.57 ppb/year (R 2 from 0.33 to 0.85) for NO 2 and 0.06 to 0.45 ppb/year (R 2 from 0.32 to 0.92) for SO 2 ; the corresponding reductions over the 10-year span are 4 to 42% for NO 2 and 22 to 52% for SO 2 . The reduction trend, despite the growth in GDP, vehicle numbers and energy consumption, industrial output, etc., is similar to those of developed countries. Clearly, there are seasonal/monthly variation patterns for these two precursor gases with minimum levels in summer (July) and maximum in winter (December). The concentration reductions, however, were lagging behind the respective emission reductions. There are significant correlations among six cites for NO 2 (r = 0.58-0.93) and, to some extent, SO 2 (0.32-0.66). The correlation between SO 2 and NO 2 (r = 0.46-0.74) indicates same or similar emission sources. Furthermore, the correlation between observed pollutant concentrations and their emission is excellent for SO 2 in two cities (0.79-0.96). The SO 2 /NO 2 ratios vary with city and time and the value is site specific. For example, in 2005, the SO 2 /NO 2 ratio was 0.38 in Kaohsiung and 0.18 in both Taipei and Taichung, the
Dynamical model of long-term synaptic plasticity
Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Huerta, R.; Rabinovich, M. I.
2002-01-01
Long-term synaptic plasticity leading to enhancement in synaptic efficacy (long-term potentiation, LTP) or decrease in synaptic efficacy (long-term depression, LTD) is widely regarded as underlying learning and memory in nervous systems. LTP and LTD at excitatory neuronal synapses are observed to be induced by precise timing of pre- and postsynaptic events. Modification of synaptic transmission in long-term plasticity is a complex process involving many pathways; for example, it is also known that both forms of synaptic plasticity can be induced by various time courses of Ca2+ introduction into the postsynaptic cell. We present a phenomenological description of a two-component process for synaptic plasticity. Our dynamical model reproduces the spike time-dependent plasticity of excitatory synapses as a function of relative timing between pre- and postsynaptic events, as observed in recent experiments. The model accounts for LTP and LTD when the postsynaptic cell is voltage clamped and depolarized (LTP) or hyperpolarized (LTD) and no postsynaptic action potentials are evoked. We are also able to connect our model with the Bienenstock, Cooper, and Munro rule. We give model predictions for changes in synaptic strength when periodic spike trains of varying frequency and Poisson distributed spike trains with varying average frequency are presented pre- and postsynaptically. When the frequency of spike presentation exceeds ≈30–40 Hz, only LTP is induced. PMID:12114531
Long-term outcomes after repair of symptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysms.
Chandra, Venita; Trang, Karen; Virgin-Downey, Whitt; Dalman, Ronald L; Mell, Matthew W
2018-04-25
Previous studies have reported increased perioperative mortality of nonruptured symptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysms (Sx-AAA) compared with asymptomatic elective AAA (E-AAA) repairs, but no long-term-outcomes have been reported. We sought to compare long-term outcomes of Sx-AAA and E-AAA after repair at a single academic institution. Patients receiving AAA repair for Sx-AAA and E-AAA from 1995 through 2015 were included. Ruptured AAA and suprarenal or thoracoabdominal AAA were excluded. Demographics, comorbidities, and operative approach were collected. Long-term mortality was the primary outcome, determined by chart review or link to Social Security Death Index. Additionally, long-term mortality and reinterventions were compared after groups were matched with nearest neighbor propensity to reduce bias. AAA repair was performed for 1054 E-AAA (383 open repair [36%], 671 endovascular aneurysm repair [EVAR] [64%]), and 139 symptomatic aneurysms (60 open repair [43%], 79 EVAR [57%]). Age (73 years vs 74 years; P = .13) and aneurysm diameter were similar between Sx-AAA and E-AAA (6.0 cm vs 5.8 cm; P = .5). The proportion of women was higher for Sx-AAA (26% vs 16%; P = .003), as was the proportion of non-Caucasians (40% vs 29%; P = .009). After propensity matching, there were no differences between groups for patient characteristics, AAA diameter, treatment modality, or comorbidities, including hypertension, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, lung disease, diabetes, renal disease, and smoking history. Women were treated for Sx-AAA at significantly smaller aortic diameters; however, compared with men (5.1 cm vs 6.3 cm; P < .001). Perioperative mortality was 5.0% for Sx-AAA and 2.3% for E-AAA (P = .055). By life-table analysis, Sx-AAA had lower 5-year (62% vs 71%) and 10-year (39% vs 51%) survivals (P = .01) compared with E-AAA for the entire cohort. Similar trends were observed for 5-year and 10-year mortality
Legg, Kristin; Shanahan, Erin; Daley, Rob; Irvine, Kathryn M.
2014-01-01
In mixed and dominant stands, whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) occurs in over two million acres within the six national forests and two national parks that comprise the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Currently, whitebark pine, an ecologically important species, is impacted by multiple ecological disturbances; white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), wildfire, and climate change all pose significant threats to the persistence of whitebark pine populations. Substantial declines in whitebark pine populations have been documented throughout its range.Under the auspices of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC), several agencies began a collaborative, long-term monitoring program to track and document the status of whitebark pine across the GYE. This alliance resulted in the formation of the Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine Monitoring Working Group (GYWPMWG), which consists of representatives from the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), National Park Service (NPS), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Montana State University (MSU). This groundbased monitoring program was initiated in 2004 and follows a peer-reviewed protocol (GYWPMWG 2011). The program is led by the Greater Yellowstone Inventory and Monitoring Network (GRYN) of the National Park Service in coordination with multiple agencies. More information about this monitoring effort is available at: http://science. nature.nps.gov/im/units/gryn/monitor/whitebark_pine.cfm. The purpose of this report is to provide a draft summary of the first step-trend analysis for the interagency, long-term monitoring of whitebark pine health to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) as part of a synthesis of the state of whitebark pine in the GYE. Due to the various stages of the analyses and reporting, this is the most efficient way to provide these results to the IGBST.
Long term monitoring system integrated in an elevational gradient in NW Argentina
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Carilla, J.; Malizia, A.; Osinaga, O.; Blundo, C.; Grau, R.; Malizia, L.; Aráoz, E.
2013-05-01
Ecological trends and ranges of variability are poorly known in the tropical and subtropical Andes. Long term studies are powerful tools to detect the response of vegetation dynamics, biodiversity and hydrological cycle to these trends. We present a long term monitoring system in NW Argentinean mountains, including forest permanent plots at different elevations and high elevation grasslands, encompassing more than 3.000 m elevation range. Long term studies include: 1) 66 ha of mountain forest permanent plots along the Yungas elevational gradient from c. 400 to 2500 masl , and latitudinal gradient (22-28S) with 45 plots in mature forests and 28 in secondary forests originated in grazing, agriculture and selective logging. Some of these permanent plots have achieved 20 years of monitoring and all of them are included in the "Red de Bosques Andinos" a network created recently, together with c. 10 institutions and more than 130 (c. 120 ha) forest permanent plots from Argentina to Colombia Andes. 2) Two GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) sites, above 4000 masl with more than 170 species recorded, including one re-measurement. This system is included in GLORIA network (www.gloria.ac.at) and in GLORIA Andes (http://www.condesan.org/gloria), and 3) more than 15 satellite monitored high Andean lakes and a wide extension of vegas (75800 ha in Argentinean puna). A digital database is being implemented to organize and provide access to the information generated by these three systems coordinated by the Instituto de Ecología Regional (http://www.iecologia.com.ar). These monitoring data are analyzed together with instrumental and dendrochronological data to describe the dynamics of these ecosystems over an area of 20 million hectares distributed between 22 and 28°S. Some of the most significant results to date include: 1) secondary mountain forests are expanding over grasslands and agriculture lands, and tend to converge toward mature forest
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Waldmann, H. C.; Montenegro, S.
2016-02-01
Autonomous platforms get a growing importance for ocean observing tasks in particular to enable long-term observing tasks. Employing the mobility of those platforms allows a targeted investigations of phenomena that up to now are mainly seen from satellite but are lacking detailed scrutiny. As part oft he national funded project ROBEX new operation concepts for mobile platforms are developed in particular a new type of underwater glider with larger payload capacity compared to legacy systems will be developed. First tests in the pool of a aparticular hull shape have led to a better understanding oft he hydrodynamic condition and an optomized hull design was derived from that. The WAVEGLIDER system of Liquid Robotics lends itsself to be used as a communication hub and a platform to track underwater vehicles. Therefore the combination of those systems are currently assessed in regard to a possible operation and its hard- and software implementation. A major issue ist o achieve a coordinated displacement of these completely decoupled systems. Issues on how to mitigate faulty mission runs, coping with low communication bandwidths, and ensuring adequate positioning information about the underwater glider have to be addressed. Robotic concepts known from terrestrial applications like for UAV systems are tested under the more stringent environmental conditions in ocean waters. With this combination of WAVEGLIDER and underwater glider it is planned to carry out long-term missions to investigate biochemical processes in the water column in particular to investigate the particle transport through the water column and the processes resulting from that. Concepts and first results of those tasks will be presented.
Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.
2012-04-01
We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.
Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine; Rosella, Laura C
2017-07-01
Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.
Khan, Anam M; Urquia, Marcelo; Kornas, Kathy; Henry, David; Cheng, Stephanie Y; Bornbaum, Catherine
2017-01-01
Background Immigrants have been shown to possess a health advantage, yet are also more likely to reside in arduous economic conditions. Little is known about if and how the socioeconomic gradient for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality differs according to immigration status. Methods Using several linked population-based vital and demographic databases from Ontario, we examined a cohort of all deaths in the province between 2002 and 2012. We constructed count models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to attain age-adjusted mortality rates and rate ratios for all-cause, premature and avoidable mortality across income quintile in immigrants and long-term residents, stratified by sex. Results A downward gradient in age-adjusted all-cause mortality was observed with increasing income quintile, in immigrants (males: Q5: 13.32, Q1: 20.18; females: Q5: 9.88, Q1: 12.51) and long-term residents (males: Q5: 33.25, Q1: 57.67; females: Q5: 22.31, Q1: 36.76). Comparing the lowest and highest income quintiles, male and female immigrants had a 56% and 28% lower all-cause mortality rate, respectively. Similar trends were observed for premature and avoidable mortality. Although immigrants had consistently lower mortality rates compared with long-term residents, trends only differed statistically across immigration status for females (p<0.05). Conclusions This study illustrated the presence of income disparities as it pertains to all-cause, premature, and avoidable mortality, irrespective of immigration status. Additionally, the immigrant health advantage was observed and income disparities were less pronounced in immigrants compared with long-term residents. These findings support the need to examine the factors that drive inequalities in mortality within and across immigration status. PMID:28289039
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor
2018-03-01
ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola
2007-08-01
Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.
Medical and Psychological Risks and Consequences of Long-Term Opioid Therapy in Women
Darnall, Beth D.; Stacey, Brett R.; Chou, Roger
2016-01-01
Background Long-term opioid use has increased substantially over the past decade for U.S. women. Women are more likely than men to have a chronic pain condition, to be treated with opioids, and may receive higher doses. Prescribing trends persist despite limited evidence to support the long-term benefit of this pain treatment approach. Purpose To review the medical and psychological risks and consequences of long-term opioid therapy in women. Method Scientific literature containing relevant keywords and content were reviewed. Results and Conclusions Long-term opioid use exposes women to unique risks, including endocrinopathy, reduced fertility, neonatal risks, as well as greater risk for polypharmacy, cardiac risks, poisoning and unintentional overdose, among other risks. Risks for women appear to vary by age and psychosocial factors may be bidirectionally related to opioid use. Gaps in understanding and priorities for future research are highlighted. PMID:22905834
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, J.; Tarasick, D. W.; Mao, H.; Li, Y., , Dr; Osman, M.; Zhao, T.; Jung, J.; Fioletov, V.; Moeini, O.
2017-12-01
Ozone trends and spatial variations in the North American free troposphere from the 1970s to the 2000s are characterized, based on the newly developed Trajectory-mapped Ozonesonde dataset for the Stratosphere and Troposphere (TOST). TOST uses a special domain-filling technique with forward and backward trajectory calculations to fill in spatial gaps in ozonesonde data. TOST is resolved in latitude, longitude, and altitude so it can provide new information on the long-term variations of troposheric ozone in three dimensions. . Global trend calculations with sparse and irregularly-spaced ozonesonde data must contend with the problem of how to properly weight the data in a zonal or regional average. As TOST spreads the data according to dynamic meteorological information, in a zonal or regional average it will therefore weight the data according to the meteorologically-determined area that each site samples. Through four decades, the highest ozone concentrations in the lower and middle troposphere generally appeared over the central midlatitudes of North America. Longitudinally, ozone was lowest over the southern Pacific Ocean, intermediate over the North American continent, and highest in the outflow along the east coast. The overall ozone trends in the four decades averaged over North America are positive. In particular, there has been an increasing trend at high latitudes between 50-90°N in the North American middle troposphere. Our analysis suggests that this may be caused by influences from the stratosphere and from lower latitudes during the period. The trends from TOST are compared with the original ozonesonde data at selected stations and both datasets correlate closely.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bowden, W. B.
2014-12-01
The Arctic is one of the most rapidly changing biomes on earth. Research at the Toolik Field Station by the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research project provides a perspective on changes that are impacting the upland tussock tundra region of the North Slope of Alaska, a region that is typical of ~15% of the arctic region. The arctic is responding to a combination of long-term, gradual changes (presses) and short-term, event-driven changes (pulses). The most important press, of course, is the persistent rise in average annual air temperature observed in most places (though not at Toolik). Associated with this increase in SAT is a well-documented increase in shallow permafrost temperature (which is observed around Toolik). Our long-term research shows that this trend will favor taller and more productive shrub and grass vegetation. Higher SAT translates to earlier spring breakup and later onset of winter. This change in seasonality is affecting interactions between shrub leaf-out, insect emergence, and bird nesting. Persistent and more frequent droughts are having important impacts on the ability of Arctic grayling - the top consumer is most upland tundra streams - to survive and has the potential to block their ability to migrate to essential overwintering lakes. The interaction between temperature (which is changing) and light (which is not) creates a "seasonal asynchrony" that may be increasing the loading of nutrients - notably nitrate - to upland tundra streams late in the season, with impacts that we do not fully understand yet. The upland tundra environment is also responding to an increasing frequency of pulses, most notably wildfires and the development of thermo-erosional failures (TEFs). Wildfires transfer large quantities of carbon and nitrogen directly to the atmosphere. TEFs may deliver large quantities of sediment and nutrients to streams and lakes. Currently these pulse disturbances seem to be having only limited, local impacts. However, as shallow
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chin, Mian
2012-01-01
We present a global model analysis of the impact of long-range transport and anthropogenic emissions on the aerosol trends in the major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere and in the Arctic in the past three decades. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model to analyze the multi-spatial and temporal scale data, including observations from Terra, Aqua, and CALIPSO satellites and from the long-term surface monitoring stations. We will analyze the source attribution (SA) and source-receptor (SR) relationships in North America, Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Arctic at the surface and free troposphere and establish the quantitative linkages between emissions from different source regions. We will discuss the implications for regional air quality and climate change.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Scharnweber, Tobias; van der Maaten, Ernst; Heinrich, Ingo; Buras, Allan; van der Maaten Theunissen, Marieke; Wilmking, Martin
2014-05-01
In contrast to extreme environments with low human impact, where often one specific (climatic) factor is limiting tree growth, dendrochronological research in the temperate zone has to cope with a wide variety of climatic and non-climatic drivers. Sophisticated statistical tools, like various detrending and filtering techniques, allow for a rather precise analysis of high-frequency (annual) climate-growth relationships. However, as almost all forests in the temperate zone are to some degree influenced by human activities, it is difficult to separate anthropogenic from climatic influence on the lower time-frequencies of decades to centuries. Footprints of human activity in time series of tree-ring parameters might be caused directly through forest utilization (logging) or indirectly through environmental changes such as eutrophication or atmospheric pollution. The former can be elucidated by traditional dendrochronological techniques based on ring parameters; evaluation of the latter requires additional proxies such as dendrochemical data. For the interpretation of long-term trends and the calibration of tree-ring based reconstructions it is therefore necessary to study tree growth in as undisturbed forest environments as possible. Comparison with dendrochronological time series from managed forest might then allow separation of climatic- from anthropogenic signals. Here, we present long-term growth trends for the broadleaved tree species common beech, pedunculate oak and sycamore maple, from two protected old-growth forests in northern Germany (one with a documented last logging activity dating back to 1527), and compare those with well-replicated regional chronologies from other, mostly managed forests. Our results indicate that several low frequency trends that can be found in many regional chronologies are likely caused by synchronous periods of heavy loggings as for example during the years following World War II, and do not relate to climatic drivers. In
Long-term changes in river system hydrology in Texas
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yiwen; Wurbs, Ralph
2018-06-01
Climate change and human actives are recognized as a topical issue that change long-term water budget, flow-frequency, and storage-frequency characteristics of different river systems. Texas is characterized by extreme hydrologic variability both spatially and temporally. Meanwhile, population and economic growth and accompanying water resources development projects have greatly impacted river flows throughout Texas. The relative effects of climate change, water resources development, water use, and other factors on long-term changes in river flow, reservoir storage, evaporation, water use, and other components of the water budgets of different river basins of Texas have been simulated in this research using the monthly version of the Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP) modelling system with input databases sets from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and Texas Water Development Board (TWDB). The results show that long-term changes are minimal from analysis monthly precipitation depths. Evaporation rates vary greatly seasonally and for much of the state appear to have a gradually upward trend. River/reservoir system water budgets and river flow characteristics have changed significantly during the past 75 years in response to water resources development and use.
A Lagrangian analysis of mid-latitude stratospheric ozone variability and long-term trends.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Koch, G.; Wernli, H.; Staehelin, J.; Peter, T.
2002-05-01
A systematic Lagrangian investigation is performed of wintertime high-resolution stratospheric ozone soundings at Payerne, Switzerland, from January 1970 to March 2001. For every ozone sounding, 10-day backward trajectories have been calculated on 16 isentropic levels using NCEP reanalysis data. Both the minimum/maximum latitude and potential vorticity (PV) averaged along the trajectories are used as indicators of the air parcels' ``origin''. The importance of transport for the understandin g of single ozone profiles is confirmed by a statistical analysis which shows that negative/positive ozone deviations gener ally coincide with transport from regions with climatologically low/high ozone values. The stable relationship between PV and ozone for the 32 year period indicates either no direct chemical impact or no temporal change of this impact. In the upper layer the PV-ozone relationship changes significantly after 1987 and a separate trend analysis for air masses transported from the polar, midlatitude and subtropical regions shows negative ozone trends in all three categories (with a maximum for the polar region). This is not direct evidence for, but would be in agreement with, an increased chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic since the late 1980s. The reasons for the negative trend in the mid-stratospheric air masses with subtropical origin that are in qualitative agreement with recent satellite observations are presently unknown.
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Jakobsson, H.; Jernberg, C.; Andersson, A.F.
Antibiotic administration is the standard treatment for the bacterium Helicobacter pylori, the main causative agent of peptic ulcer disease and gastric cancer. However, the long-term consequences of this treatment on the human indigenous microbiota are relatively unexplored. Here we studied short- and long-term effects of clarithromycin and metronidazole treatment, a commonly used therapy regimen against H. pylori, on the indigenous microbiota in the throat and in the lower intestine. The bacterial compositions in samples collected over a four year period were monitored by analyzing the 16S rRNA gene using 454-based pyrosequencing and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP). While the microbialmore » communities of untreated control subjects were relatively stable over time, dramatic shifts were observed one week after antibiotic treatment with reduced bacterial diversity in all treated subjects in both locations. While the microbiota of the different subjects responded uniquely to the antibiotic treatment some general trends could be observed; such as a dramatic decline in Actinobacteria in both throat and feces immediately after treatment. Although the diversity of the microbiota subsequently recovered to resemble the pre treatment states, the microbiota remained perturbed in some cases for up to four years post treatment. In addition, four years after treatment high levels of the macrolide resistance gene erm(B) were found, indicating that antibiotic resistance, once selected for, can persist for longer periods of time than previously recognized. This highlights the importance of a restrictive antibiotic usage in order to prevent subsequent treatment failure and potential spread of antibiotic resistance.« less
HIV-related politics in long-term perspective.
Friedman, S R
1998-06-01
Some long-term, large-scale socio-economic changes may affect the politics of HIV and other emerging viruses such as hepatitis C. It is useful to ask why the potential peace dividend of the early 1990s failed to provide adequate resources for HIV-related social and medical service delivery in developed or developing nations. This failure can be understood by looking at long-term global economic trends and the pressures they put on governments and corporations. They have produced a period in which fundamental issues of political and economic structure are at stake and, often, the response is a divide-and-rule politics to promote stability. National politics differ in terms of the extent to which such a 'politics of scapegoating' is institutionalized and in terms of which groups are scapegoated. Groups such as drug injectors, gay and bisexual men and sex traders are particularly likely to be targeted both by the scapegoaters and by HIV. Given this framework, how should public health professionals and activists engaged in HIV-related issues respond? Under what circumstances should we orient efforts upwards towards corporate, political or bureaucratic leaders? Under what circumstances, and how, should we orient towards popular forces? Relatedly, we need to consider an issue we often ignore: What do we have to offer potential allies? That is, in terms of their goals, philosophies and needs, why should they ally with us?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kawamura, K.; Tachibana, E.; Mochida, M.
2006-12-01
To understand a long-range atmospheric transport of water-soluble organics in the western North Pacific, remote marine aerosols were collected on weekly basis at a subtropical island (Chichijima, 142E; 27N) from 2001 to 2006 using a high volume air sampler and pre-combusted quartz filter. The island is located in the boundary of westerly and trade wind regimes. The aerosols were analyzed for dicarboxylic acids, ketoacids and dicarbonyls employing butyl ester derivatization followed by GC determination. Homologous saturated diacids (C2-C11) were detected with a predominance of oxalic (C2) acid followed by malonic (C3) and succinic (C4) acids as well as unsaturated diacids, including maleic (M), fumaric (F), phthalic acids. Ketoacids and dicarbonyls were also detected. Concentrations of total diacids fluctuated significantly in a range of 10-600 ngm-3 with winter/spring maximum and summer minimum. The winter/spring maximum can be explained by a combinattion of enhanced emissions of polluted aerosols and their precursors in Asia and the intensified westerlies over the North Pacific in the season. Seasonal trends of the molecular compositions were also found. For example, concentration ratios of C3 to C4 acid showed a maximum in summer, indicating more oxidation of longer-chain diacids to shorter ones. M/F ratios increased from summer to winter as a result of photochemically-induced isomerization of cis and trans configuration of unsaturated diacids. On the other hand, azelaic acid (C9) relative to other diacids showed a sharp increase in summer. Because C9 is a specific photo-oxidation product of unsaturated fatty acid such as oleic acid, this demonstrates an enhanced sea-to- air emission of unsaturated fatty acids in summer followed by photochemical oxidation. Long-term trends of diacids and related compounds in the aerosols will be discussed for 2001 to 2006. The results will also be compared with those obtained at the same site for 1990 to 1993 to detect long-term
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Azorin-Molina, C.; Iacono, M. J.
2014-12-01
The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, located on the 635-foot summit of Great Blue Hill ten miles south of Boston, Massachusetts, has been the site of continuous monitoring of the local weather and climate since its founding in 1885. The meticulous, extensive and high-quality climate record maintained at this location has included the measurement of wind among many other parameters since its earliest days, and this provides a unique opportunity to examine wind speed trends at this site over nearly 130 years. Although multiple wind sensors have been in use during this time and the height of the anemometers was raised in 1908, the wind records have been made as consistent as possible through careful analysis of these changes and the application of adjustments to ensure consistency. The 30-year mean wind speed at this location has decreased from 6.8 m s-1 in the middle 20th century to its present value of 6.0 m s-1 with an increase in the rate of the decline beginning around 1980. The wind speed time series shows a significant (p < 0.05) downward trend over the entire period from 1885-2013 (-0.085 m s-1 decade-1) that is stronger and also significant for the sub-periods from 1961-2013 (-0.266 m s-1 decade-1) and 1979-2008 (-0.342 m s-1 decade-1). This declining trend persists in all seasons and has significant implications for the efficiency of wind power generation in the area, if it reflects a regional change in the near-surface wind regime. The wind instruments in use since the 19th century will be described, and the official long-term record will be compared with measurements from other wind sensors at the Observatory and surrounding locations. In addition, initial investigations of the possible causes of the wind speed decline will be presented in the context of global stilling (i.e. the theory of a widespread decline in measured near-surface wind speed), including an analysis of the wind speed change as a function of wind direction.
Jao, Ying-Ling; Mogle, Jacqueline; Williams, Kristine; McDermott, Caroline; Behrens, Liza
2018-04-01
Apathy is prevalent in individuals with dementia. Lack of responsiveness to environmental stimulation is a key characteristic of apathy. The Person-Environment Apathy Rating (PEAR) scale consists of environment and apathy subscales, which allow for examination of environmental impact on apathy. The interrater reliability of the PEAR scale was examined via real-time observation. The current study included 45 observations of 15 long-term care residents with dementia. Each participant was observed at three time points for 10 minutes each. Two raters observed the participant and surrounding environment and independently rated the participant's apathy and environmental stimulation using the PEAR scale. Weighted Kappa was 0.5 to 0.82 for the PEAR-Environment subscale and 0.5 to 0.8 for the PEAR-Apathy subscale. Overall, with the exception of three items with relatively weak reliability (0.50 to 0.56), the PEAR scale showed moderate to strong interrater reliability (0.63 to 0.82). The results support the use of the PEAR scale to measure environmental stimulation and apathy via real-time observation in long-term care residents with dementia. [Journal of Gerontological Nursing, 44(4), 23-28.]. Copyright 2018, SLACK Incorporated.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Laul, K. M.; Kim, K. M.
2010-01-01
In this paper, we present corroborative observational evidences from satellites, in-situ observations, and re-analysis data showing possible impacts of absorbing aerosols (black carbon and dust) on subseasonal and regional summer monsoon rainfall over India. We find that increased absorbing aerosols in the Indo-Gangetic Plain in recent decades may have lead to long-term warming of the upper troposphere over northern India and the Tibetan Plateau, enhanced rainfall in northern India and the Himalayas foothill regions in the early part (may-June) of the monsoon season, followed by diminished rainfall over central and southern India in the latter part (July-August) of the monsoon season. These signals which are consistent with current theories of atmospheric heating and solar dimming by aerosol and induced cloudiness in modulating the Indian monsoon, would have been masked by conventional method of using al-India rainfall averaged over the entire monsoon season.
A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick
2016-01-01
Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.
Effects of trawl selectivity and genetic parameters on fish body length under long-term trawling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, Yang; Sun, Peng; Cui, He; Sheng, Huaxiang; Zhao, Fenfang; Tang, Yanli; Chen, Zelin
2015-10-01
Long-term fishing pressure affects the biological characteristics of exploited fish stocks. The biological characteristics of hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) in the East China Sea are unable to recover because of long-term trawling. Fishing induces evolutionary effects on the fish's biological characteristics. Evidence of these changes includes small size at age, a shift to earlier age structure, and early maturation. Natural and artificial selection usually affect the fish's life history. Selection can induce different chances of reproduction, and individual fish can give a different genetic contribution to the next generation. In this study, analysis of time-dependent probability of significance and test of sensitivity were used to explore the effects of fish exploitation rate, mesh size, and heritability with long-term trawling. Results showed that fishing parameters were important drivers to exploited fish population. However, genetic traits altered by fishing were slow, and the changes in biological characteristics were weaker than those caused by fishing selection. Exploitation rate and mesh size exhibited similar evolutionary trend tendency under long-term fishing. The time-dependent probability of significance trend showed a gradual growth and tended to be stable. Therefore, the direction of fishing-induced evolution and successful management of fish species require considerable attention to contribute to sustainable fisheries in China.
Long-term trends and survival analysis of esophageal and gastric cancer in Yangzhong, 1991-2013.
Hua, Zhaolai; Zheng, Xianzhi; Xue, Hengchuan; Wang, Jianming; Yao, Jun
2017-01-01
To describe the long-term trends of the incidence, mortality and survival of upper digestive tract cancers in a high-risk area of China. We extracted esophageal and gastric cancer cases diagnosed from 1991 to 2013 through the Yangzhong Cancer Registry and calculated the crude and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. Cancer trends were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program and were reported using the annual percentage change (APC). The cancer-specific survival rates were evaluated and compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. The age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer declined from 107.06 per 100,000 person-years (male: 118.05 per 100,000 person-years; female: 97.42 per 100,000 person-years) in 1991 to 37.04 per 100,000 person-years (male: 46.43 per 100,000 person-years; female: 27.26 per 100,000 person-years) in 2013, with an APC of -2.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): -3.4%, -1.5%) for males and -4.9% (95% CI:-5.8%, -3.9%) for females. The age-standardized incidence rate of gastric cancer was 165.11 per 100,000 person-years (male: 225.39 per 100,000 person-years; female: 113.34 per 100,000 person-years) in 1991 and 53.46 per 100,000 person-years (male: 76.51 per 100,000 person-years; female: 32.43 per 100,000 person-years) in 2013, with the APC of -3.6% (95% CI: -4.5%, -2.7%) for males and -4.8% (95% CI: -5.7%, -3.9%) for females. The median survival time was 3.0 years for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Cancer cases detected after 2004 had a better prognosis. The age-standardized incidence rates of both esophageal and gastric cancer continuously decreased since 1991 through 2013, whereas the mortality rate remained stable before 2004 and significantly declined following the massive endoscopic screening program initiated in 2004. The survival probability of patients with esophageal and gastric cancer has improved obviously in recent decades.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Department of Health and Human Services, Seattle, WA. Region 10.
The demand for long term care is growing as the population in need of services becomes older and frailer, and as the nature of the family, the economy, and the health care system changes. To investigate the long term care system, its characteristics, trends, financing, policies, availability, and quality of care, 700 health care professionals,…
Observer-rated depression in long-term care: frequency and risk factors.
McCusker, Jane; Cole, Martin G; Voyer, Philippe; Monette, Johanne; Champoux, Nathalie; Ciampi, Antonio; Vu, Minh; Dyachenko, Alina; Belzile, Eric
2014-01-01
The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence and 6-month incidence of observer-rated depression in residents age 65 and over of long-term care (LTC) facilities; (2) to describe risk factors for depression, at baseline and over time. A multisite, prospective observational study was conducted in residents aged 65 and over of 7 LTC facilities. The Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD) was completed by nurses monthly for 6 months. We measured demographic, medical, and functional factors at baseline and monthly intervals, using data from research assessments, nurse interviews, and chart reviews. 274 residents were recruited and completed baseline depression assessments. The prevalence of depression (CSDD score of 6+) was 19.0%. The incidence of depression among those without prevalent depression was 73.3 per 100 person-years. A delirium diagnosis, pain, and diabetes were independently associated with prevalent depression. CSDD score at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were independent risk factors for incident depression. A diagnosis of delirium and uncorrected visual impairment at follow-up occurred concurrently with incident depression. The results of this study have implications for the detection and prevention of depression in LTC. Delirium diagnosis, pain and diabetes at baseline were associated with prevalent depression; depression symptoms at baseline and development of severe cognitive impairment at follow-up were risk factors for incident depression. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
King, Sebastian K; Alfaraj, Malikah; Gaiteiro, Rose; O'Brien, Karel; Moraes, Theo; Humpl, Tilman; Marcon, Margaret; Chiang, Monping; Reyes, Janette; Haliburton, Beth; Ryan, Greg; Cox, Peter; Chiu, Priscilla P L
2016-05-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the association of observed/expected (O/E) lung-to-head ratio (LHR) with long-term morbidity for isolated fetal congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) patients in a single institution. We performed a retrospective study of prenatally diagnosed CDH from 18 to 38weeks of gestation (01/2002-04/2010). Two cohorts of O/E LHR were defined (22.6-45%, 45.1-78.3%) based upon previous studies. Survivors with at least 1-year follow-up of prospectively collected long-term morbidity assessments were included. O/E LHR was available in 43 survivors (median 40%, range 22.8-78.3%). Follow-up data were available in 41 survivors (M:F=24:17, left CDH=39/41). Median follow-up was 6.5years (1-11years). Height/weight trajectories were similar between the two cohorts, with the majority below the 50th centile. There were no differences between the two cohorts by age 3years for Bayley scales (developmental domains) and/or REEL-3 (language development). In addition, V/Q scans in the two cohorts demonstrated similar degrees of mismatch (mean delta V/Q=35.4 versus 31.3). In fetuses with isolated CDH, a reduction in O/E LHR does not predict a worse outcome in long-term follow-up. There is no association between a lower O/E LHR and a reduction in REEL-3 or Bayley score nor V/Q mismatch. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seidel, D. J.; Gillett, N. P.; Lanzante, J.; Shine, K. P.; Thorne, P.
2010-12-01
Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy. Although many of the same modeling and observational tools have been applied, and there are many common scientific issues in both regions of the atmosphere, stratospheric temperatures have not captured the imagination of the public, the popular press and public policy community. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970’s to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature, including observing systems, dataset development for trend estimates, modeling approaches, and associated uncertainties. Recent developments will be highlighted.
Short- and Long-Term Propagation of Spacecraft Orbits
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, John C., Jr.; Sweetser, Theodore; Chung, Min-Kun; Yen, Chen-Wan L.; Roncoli, Ralph B.; Kwok, Johnny H.; Vincent, Mark A.
2008-01-01
The Planetary Observer Planning Software (POPS) comprises four computer programs for use in designing orbits of spacecraft about planets. These programs are the Planetary Observer High Precision Orbit Propagator (POHOP), the Planetary Observer Long-Term Orbit Predictor (POLOP), the Planetary Observer Post Processor (POPP), and the Planetary Observer Plotting (POPLOT) program. POHOP and POLOP integrate the equations of motion to propagate an initial set of classical orbit elements to a future epoch. POHOP models shortterm (one revolution) orbital motion; POLOP averages out the short-term behavior but requires far less processing time than do older programs that perform long-term orbit propagations. POPP postprocesses the spacecraft ephemeris created by POHOP or POLOP (or optionally can use a less accurate internal ephemeris) to search for trajectory-related geometric events including, for example, rising or setting of a spacecraft as observed from a ground site. For each such event, POPP puts out such user-specified data as the time, elevation, and azimuth. POPLOT is a graphics program that plots data generated by POPP. POPLOT can plot orbit ground tracks on a world map and can produce a variety of summaries and generic ordinate-vs.-abscissa plots of any POPP data.
Long-term potentiation and long-term depression: a clinical perspective
Bliss, Timothy V.P.; Cooke, Sam F
2011-01-01
Long-term potentiation and long-term depression are enduring changes in synaptic strength, induced by specific patterns of synaptic activity, that have received much attention as cellular models of information storage in the central nervous system. Work in a number of brain regions, from the spinal cord to the cerebral cortex, and in many animal species, ranging from invertebrates to humans, has demonstrated a reliable capacity for chemical synapses to undergo lasting changes in efficacy in response to a variety of induction protocols. In addition to their physiological relevance, long-term potentiation and depression may have important clinical applications. A growing insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying these processes, and technological advances in non-invasive manipulation of brain activity, now puts us at the threshold of harnessing long-term potentiation and depression and other forms of synaptic, cellular and circuit plasticity to manipulate synaptic strength in the human nervous system. Drugs may be used to erase or treat pathological synaptic states and non-invasive stimulation devices may be used to artificially induce synaptic plasticity to ameliorate conditions arising from disrupted synaptic drive. These approaches hold promise for the treatment of a variety of neurological conditions, including neuropathic pain, epilepsy, depression, amblyopia, tinnitus and stroke. PMID:21779718
Long-term change analysis of satellite-based evapotranspiration over Indian vegetated surface
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gupta, Shweta; Bhattacharya, Bimal K.; Krishna, Akhouri P.
2016-05-01
In the present study, trend of satellite based annual evapotranspiration (ET) and natural forcing factors responsible for this were analyzed. Thirty years (1981-2010) of ET data at 0.08° grid resolution, generated over Indian region from opticalthermal observations from NOAA PAL and MODIS AQUA satellites, were used. Long-term data on gridded (0.5° x 0.5°) annual rainfall (RF), annual mean surface soil moisture (SSM) ERS scatterometer at 25 km resolution and annual mean incoming shortwave radiation from MERRA-2D reanalysis were also analyzed. Mann-Kendall tests were performed with time series data for trend analysis. Mean annual ET loss from Indian ago-ecosystem was found to be almost double (1100 Cubic Km) than Indian forest ecosystem (550 Cubic Km). Rainfed vegetation systems such as forest, rainfed cropland, grassland showed declining ET trend @ - 4.8, -0.6 &-0.4 Cubic Kmyr-1, respectively during 30 years. Irrigated cropland initially showed ET decline upto 1995 @ -0.8 cubic Kmyr-1 which could possibly be due to solar dimming followed by increasing ET @ 0.9 cubic Kmyr-1 after 1995. A cross-over point was detected between forest ET decline and ET increase in irrigated cropland during 2008. During 2001-2010, the four agriculturally important Indian states eastern, central, western and southern showed significantly increasing ET trend with S-score of 15-25 and Z-score of 1.09-2.9. Increasing ET in western and southern states was found to be coupled with increase in annual rainfall and SSM. But in eastern and central states no significant trend in rainfall was observed though significant increase in ET was noticed. The study recommended to investigate the influence of anthropogenic factors such as increase in area under irrigation, increased use of water for irrigation through ground water pumping, change in cropping pattern and cultivars on increasing ET.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Wanyun; Xu, Xiaobin; Lin, Meiyun; Lin, Weili; Tarasick, David; Tang, Jie; Ma, Jianzhong; Zheng, Xiangdong
2018-01-01
Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in tropospheric ozone are both environmental and climate concerns. Ozone measured at Mt Waliguan Observatory (WLG, 3816 m a.s.l.) on the Tibetan Plateau over the period of 1994-2013 has increased significantly by 0.2-0.3 ppbv yr-1 during spring and autumn but shows a much smaller trend in winter and no significant trend in summer. Here we explore the factors driving the observed ozone changes at WLG using backward trajectory analysis, chemistry-climate model hindcast simulations (GFDL AM3), a trajectory-mapped ozonesonde data set, and several climate indices. A stratospheric ozone tracer implemented in GFDL AM3 indicates that stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) can explain ˜ 60 % of the simulated springtime ozone increase at WLG, consistent with an increase in the NW air-mass frequency inferred from the trajectory analysis. Enhanced STT associated with the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream contributes to the observed high ozone anomalies at WLG during the springs of 1999 and 2012. During autumn, observations at WLG are more heavily influenced by polluted air masses originating from South East Asia than in the other seasons. Rising Asian anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors are the key driver of increasing autumnal ozone observed at WLG, as supported by the GFDL AM3 model with time-varying emissions, which captures the observed ozone increase (0.26 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1). AM3 simulates a greater ozone increase of 0.38 ± 0.11 ppbv yr-1 at WLG in autumn under conditions with strong transport from South East Asia and shows no significant ozone trend in autumn when anthropogenic emissions are held constant in time. During summer, WLG is mostly influenced by easterly air masses, but these trajectories do not extend to the polluted regions of eastern China and have decreased significantly over the last 2 decades, which likely explains why summertime ozone measured at WLG shows no significant trend
Simmons, Sandra F; Sims, Nichole; Durkin, Daniel W; Shotwell, Matthew S; Erwin, Scott; Schnelle, John F
2013-09-01
The primary purpose of this study was to determine the quality of feeding assistance care and identify areas in need of improvement for a sample of long-term care veterans. A secondary purpose was to compare these findings with the results of previous studies in community facilities to determine ways in which the VA sample might differ. A repeated measures observational study was conducted in two VA facilities with 200 long-stay residents. Research staff conducted standardized observations during and between meals for 3 months. There was a trend for better feeding assistance care quality during meals in the VA sample, but there were still multiple aspects of care in need of improvement both during and between meals. Higher licensed nurse staffing levels in the VA should enable effective supervision and management, but observation-based measures of care quality are necessary for accurate information about daily feeding assistance care provision.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tarasova, O. A.; Staehelin, J.; Prevot, A. S.; Senik, I. A.; Sosonkin, M. G.; Cui, J.
2007-12-01
Analysis of the long-term surface ozone records of two mountain sites, namely Kislovodsk High Mountain Station (KHMS) in Caucasus, Russia (43.7°N, 42.7°E, 2070 asl.) and Jungfraujoch (JFJ) in Switzerland (46.5°N, 7.9°E, 3580m asl) will be presented. A strong increase in ozone concentration (up +0.46±0.11ppb/year) was found at JFJ while ozone significantly deceased at KHMS (-0.65 ±0.09 ppb/year) during 1990-2005. We will compare trends values for earlier years (1990-2001) and for the latter ones (1993-2005). Among the possible reasons of the trends difference the impact of atmospheric transport is studied. Both vertical and horizontal components are considered in connection with ozone concentration trends. Transport analysis is based on 3D trajectories using LAGRANTO. There was no substantial difference in trends detected for different PV-levels or PBL filtered cases, while the main difference has been found in the source areas of the air masses at the two locations and inside different advection sectors at the each particular site. Trends will be compared (for the two receptor sites and two periods) for filtered subsets of upper tropospheric/stratospheric cases (based on PV and trajectory altitude), cases impacted by Planetary Boundary Layer (based on PBL height) and in different horizontal advection clusters. The work is financially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (JRP IB7320-110831), European Commission (Marie-Curie IIF project N 039905 - FP6-2005-Mobility-7) and Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects 06-05-64427 and 06-05-65308) and contributes to ACCENT T&TP project.
Long-term decrease in phosphate concentrations in the surface layer of the southern Japan Sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kodama, Taketoshi; Igeta, Yosuke; Kuga, Mizuki; Abe, Shoko
2016-10-01
To identify possible causes for the long-term trends in nutrient concentrations in the southern Japan Sea (JS), we studied nutrient concentrations that were obtained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Our evaluation shows that phosphate concentrations declined in the surface layers in summer (0-20 and 21-50 m depth) and winter (0-20, 21-50, and 51-100 m depth) over the last 40 years, while no significant linear trend was observed for nitrate concentrations. The declining trend in the phosphate concentration was quantified as 1.8-3.3 nM yr-1. The increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition to the JS could not explain the decline in phosphate concentration. In addition, the mixed-layer depth during winter did not demonstrate any significant trend, and an increase in phosphate concentrations was not observed in any layers; therefore, the decrease in nutrient supply from deep JS water was not considered a major possible cause for the decline in the phosphate concentration. In contrast, the phosphate concentration in the surface of the southern JS during winter showed a significant positive correlation with the concentration in the 21-50 m depth layer of the saline East China Sea (ECS) water in the preceding summer, and the surface water of the southern JS was almost entirely replaced by water originating from the ECS during May-October. Therefore, it is concluded that the declining trend in the phosphate concentrations in the southern JS is caused by horizontal advection of ECS water.
A major goal of research on the long-term performance of subsurface reactive barriers is to identify standard ground water monitoring parameters that may be useful indicators of declining performance or impending system failure. Results are presented from ground water monitoring ...
A major goal of research on the long-term performance of subsurface reactive barriers is to identify standard ground-water monitoring parameters that may be useful indicators of declining performance or impending system failure. Results are presented from studies conducted over ...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Best, Fred
This document was prepared to identify long-term needs and opportunities for adult education, suggesting the implications of long-term social changes without proposing specific actions or institutional arrangements. Following an introduction, chapter 2 discusses the following trends: (1) continued population growth, including the sources and…
Synaptic Transmission Optimization Predicts Expression Loci of Long-Term Plasticity.
Costa, Rui Ponte; Padamsey, Zahid; D'Amour, James A; Emptage, Nigel J; Froemke, Robert C; Vogels, Tim P
2017-09-27
Long-term modifications of neuronal connections are critical for reliable memory storage in the brain. However, their locus of expression-pre- or postsynaptic-is highly variable. Here we introduce a theoretical framework in which long-term plasticity performs an optimization of the postsynaptic response statistics toward a given mean with minimal variance. Consequently, the state of the synapse at the time of plasticity induction determines the ratio of pre- and postsynaptic modifications. Our theory explains the experimentally observed expression loci of the hippocampal and neocortical synaptic potentiation studies we examined. Moreover, the theory predicts presynaptic expression of long-term depression, consistent with experimental observations. At inhibitory synapses, the theory suggests a statistically efficient excitatory-inhibitory balance in which changes in inhibitory postsynaptic response statistics specifically target the mean excitation. Our results provide a unifying theory for understanding the expression mechanisms and functions of long-term synaptic transmission plasticity. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-term ecological research in a human-dominated world
G. Philip Robertson; Scott L. Collins; David R. Foster; Nicholas Brokaw; Hugh W. Ducklow; Ted L. Gragson; Corinna Gries; Stephen K. Hamilton; A. David McGuire; John C. Moore; Emily H. Stanley; Robert B. Waide; Mark W. Williams
2012-01-01
The US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network enters its fourth decade with a distinguished record of achievement in ecological science. The value of long-term observations and experiments has never been more important for testing ecological theory and for addressing todayâs most difficult environmental challenges. The networkâs potential for tackling emergent...
Modeling storms improves estimates of long-term shoreline change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Frazer, L. Neil; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Fletcher, Charles H.
2009-10-01
Large storms make it difficult to extract the long-term trend of erosion or accretion from shoreline position data. Here we make storms part of the shoreline change model by means of a storm function. The data determine storm amplitudes and the rate at which the shoreline recovers from storms. Historical shoreline data are temporally sparse, and inclusion of all storms in one model over-fits the data, but a probability-weighted average model shows effects from all storms, illustrating how model averaging incorporates information from good models that might otherwise have been discarded as un-parsimonious. Data from Cotton Patch Hill, DE, yield a long-term shoreline loss rate of 0.49 ± 0.01 m/yr, about 16% less than published estimates. A minimum loss rate of 0.34 ± 0.01 m/yr is given by a model containing the 1929, 1962 and 1992 storms.
Long-term monitoring sites and trends at the Marcell Experimental Forest. Chapter 2.
Stephen D. Sebestyen; Carrie Dorrance; Donna M. Olson; Elon S. Verry; Randall K. Kolka; Art E. Elling; Richard Kyllander
2011-01-01
The MEF is one of few long-term research programs on the hydrology and ecology of undrained peatlands in boreal forests. No other site in the Experimental Forest and Range Network of the Forest Service and few sites around the globe have studied the hydrology and biogeochemistry of peatland watersheds with the intensity or longevity as on the MEF. In this chapter, we...
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Corbet, Robin H. D.; Coley, Joel B.; Krimm, Hans A.
2017-01-01
We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (SWIFT-BAT). IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 seconds. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 second-pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090,which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of approximately 30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although theymight be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be starmass donors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Corbet, Robin H. D.; Coley, Joel B.; Krimm, Hans A.
2017-09-01
We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with the Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ˜30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Corbet, Robin; Coley, Joel Barry; Krimm, Hans A.
2017-08-01
We present an investigation of long-term modulation in the X-ray light curves of five little-studied candidate high-mass X-ray binaries using the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. IGR J14488-5942 and AX J1700.2-4220 show strong modulation at periods of 49.6 and 44 days, respectively, which are interpreted as orbital periods of Be star systems. For IGR J14488-5942, observations with Swift X-ray Telescope show a hint of pulsations at 33.4 s. For AX J1700.2-4220, 54 s pulsations were previously found with XMM-Newton. Swift J1816.7-1613 exhibits complicated behavior. The strongest peak in the power spectrum is at a period near 150 days, but this conflicts with a determination of a period of 118.5 days by La Parola et al. (2014). AX J1820.5-1434 has been proposed to exhibit modulation near 54 days, but the extended BAT observations suggest modulation at slightly longer than double this at approximately 111 days. There appears to be a long-term change in the shape of the modulation near 111 days, which may explain the apparent discrepancy. The X-ray pulsar XTE J1906+090, which was previously proposed to be a Be star system with an orbital period of ˜30 days from pulse timing, shows peaks in the power spectrum at 81 and 173 days. The origins of these periods are unclear, although they might be the orbital period and a superorbital period respectively. For all five sources, the long-term variability, together with the combination of orbital and proposed pulse periods, suggests that the sources contain Be star mass donors.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik
2016-02-01
Synaptic memory is considered to be the main element responsible for learning and cognition in humans. Although traditionally nonvolatile long-term plasticity changes are implemented in nanoelectronic synapses for neuromorphic applications, recent studies in neuroscience reveal that biological synapses undergo metastable volatile strengthening followed by a long-term strengthening provided that the frequency of the input stimulus is sufficiently high. Such "memory strengthening" and "memory decay" functionalities can potentially lead to adaptive neuromorphic architectures. In this paper, we demonstrate the close resemblance of the magnetization dynamics of a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ) to short-term plasticity and long-term potentiation observed in biological synapses. We illustrate that, in addition to the magnitude and duration of the input stimulus, the frequency of the stimulus plays a critical role in determining long-term potentiation of the MTJ. Such MTJ synaptic memory arrays can be utilized to create compact, ultrafast, and low-power intelligent neural systems.
Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor
2009-01-01
The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together
Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?
Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K
2011-02-09
Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pick, L.; Korte, M. C.
2016-12-01
Magnetospheric currents generate the largest external contribution to the geomagnetic field observed on Earth. Of particular importance is the solar-driven effect of the ring current whose fluctuations overlap with internal field secular variation (SV). Recent core field models thus co-estimate this effect but their validity is limited to the last 15 years offering satellite data. We aim at eliminating magnetospheric modulation from the whole geomagnetic observatory record from 1840 onwards in order to obtain clean long-term SV that will enhance core flow and geodynamo studies.The ring current effect takes form of a southward directed external dipole field aligned with the geomagnetic main field axis. Commonly the Dst index (Sugiura, 1964) is used to parametrize temporal variations of this dipole term. Because of baseline instabilities, the alternative RC index was derived from hourly means of 21 stations spanning 1997-2013 (Olsen et al., 2014). We follow their methodology based on annual means from a reduced station set spanning 1960-2010. The absolute level of the variation so determined is "hidden" in the static lithospheric offsets taken as quiet-time means. We tackle this issue by subtracting crustal biases independently calculated for each observatory from an inversion of combined Swarm satellite and observatory data.Our index reproduces the original annual RC index variability with a reasonable offset of -10 nT in the reference time window 2000-2010. Prior to that it depicts a long-term trend consistent with the external dipole term from COV-OBS (Gillet et al., 2013), being the only long-term field model available for comparison. Sharper variations that are better correlated with the Ap index than the COV-OBS solution lend support to the usefulness of our initial modeling approach. Following a detailed sensitivity study of station choice future work will focus on increasing the resolution from annual to hourly means.
Dong, Shirley Xiaobi; Davies, Stuart J; Ashton, Peter S; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Supardi, M N Nur; Kassim, Abd Rahman; Tan, Sylvester; Moorcroft, Paul R
2012-10-07
The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.
Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.
2010-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius
Nitrate Trends in Minnesota Rivers
Wall, Dave; Christopherson, Dave; Lorenz, Dave; Martin, Gary
2013-01-01
The objective of this study was to assess long-term trends (30 to 35 years) of flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite+nitrate-N (hereinafter referred to as nitrate) in a way that would allow us to discern changing trends. Recognizing that these trends are commonly different from one river to another river and from one part of the state to another, our objective was to examine as many river monitoring sites across the state as possible for which sufficient long term streamflow and concentration data were available.
Long-term observing system for the oceanic regime of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Østerhus, Svein; Schröder, Michael; Hellmer, Hartmunt; Darelius, Elin; Nicholls, Keith; Makinson, Keith
2014-05-01
Long term observations of the flow of dense waters from their area of formation to the abyss of the World Ocean, and the return flow of warm waters, are central to climate research. For the Weddell Sea an important component of such a system entails monitoring the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) on the continental shelf north of Ronne Ice Front, the transformation to Ice Shelf Water (ISW) beneath the floating Filchner-Ronne ice shelf, and the flux of ISW overflowing the shelf break to the deep Weddell Sea. Equally important is the return flow of warm water toward the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf system. AWI, BAS and UNI/UIB operate a number of monitoring stations in the southern Weddell Sea. The systems build upon techniques and methods developed over several decades and have a proven record of high data return. Here we present plans for extending, integrating and operating the existing long term observatories to increase our knowledge of the natural variability of the ocean-ice shelf system, and to allow early identification of possible changes of regional or global importance. The S2 observatory at the Filchner sill was established in 1977 and continues to deliver the longest existing marine time series from Antarctica. As a key site for monitoring the ISW overflow S2 is a part of the global net of monitoring sites under CLIVAR Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) and OceanSITES. The existing S2 observatory consists of a sub-surface mooring carrying sensors for current velocity, temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen measurements. Observations at the Filchner sill also show a seasonal inflow of relatively warm water that is able to reach Filchner Ice Front. New model results indicate that this flow of water might increase in the future and we have deployed a number of instrumented moorings in the Filchner Depression to estimate the heat flux towards the ice shelf. In 1999 we established Site 5 on Ronne Ice Shelf using a hot-water drill to access
Analyzing the Effects of Horizontal Resolution on Long-Term Coupled WRF-CMAQ Simulations
The objective of this study is to determine the adequacy of using a relatively coarse horizontal resolution (i.e. 36 km) to simulate long-term trends of pollutant concentrations and radiation variables with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model. To this end, WRF-CMAQ simulations over the co...
Non-climatic factors and long-term, continental-scale changes in seasonally frozen ground
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.
2012-03-01
). In their recent paper entitled 'An observational 71-year history of seasonally frozen ground changes in Eurasian high latitudes', Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) provided detailed analysis of soil temperature data to assess 1930-2000 trends in seasonal freezing depth. The data were obtained from 387 Soviet non-permafrost meteorological stations. The authors performed systematic, quality-controlled, integrative analysis over the entire former Soviet Union domain. The long-term changes in depth of seasonal freezing were discussed in relation to such forcing variables as air temperature, degree days of freezing/thawing, snow depth and summer precipitation as well as modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The spatially average approach adopted for the study provides a generalized continental-scale trend. The study greatly improves, expands and extends previous 1956-90 analysis of the ground thermal regime over the Eurasian high latitudes (Frauenfeld et al 2004). Although the work of Frauenfeld and Zhang (2011) is the most comprehensive assessment of the continental-scale long-term trends in seasonal freezing available to date, more detailed analysis is needed to determine the effect of climate change on seasonally frozen ground. It should be noted that, in addition to the variables considered for analysis, other non-climatic factors affect the depth of freezing propagation. Unlike the surface, which is influenced by the climate directly, the ground even at shallow depth receives a climatic signal that is substantially modified by edaphic processes, contributing to highly localized thermal sensitivities of the ground to climatic forcing. Subsurface properties, soil moisture, and snow and vegetation covers influence the depth of freezing. Topography also plays an important role in establishing the ground thermal regime. It is an important determinant of the amount of heat received by the ground surface, affects the distribution of snow and vegetation, and influences the
Long-term course of opioid addiction.
Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas
2015-01-01
Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.
Long-term evolution of highly alkaline steel slag drainage waters.
Riley, Alex L; Mayes, William M
2015-07-01
The disposal of slag generated by the steel industry can have negative consequences upon the surrounding aquatic environment by the generation of high pH waters, leaching of potentially problematic trace metals, and rapid rates of calcite precipitation which smother benthic habitats. A 36-year dataset was collated from the long-term ambient monitoring of physicochemical parameters and elemental concentrations of samples from two steel slag leachate-affected watercourses in northern England. Waters were typified by elevated pH (>10), high alkalinity, and were rich in dissolved metals (e.g. calcium (Ca), aluminium (Al), and zinc (Zn)). Long-term trend analysis was performed upon pH, alkalinity, and Ca concentration which, in addition to Ca flux calculations, were used to highlight the longevity of pollution arising as a result of the dumping and subsequent leaching of steel slags. Declines in calcium and alkalinity have been modest over the monitoring period and not accompanied by significant declines in water pH. If the monotonic trends of decline in alkalinity and calcium continue in the largest of the receiving streams, it will be in the region of 50-80 years before calcite precipitation would be expected to be close to baseline levels, where ecological impacts would be negligible.
Trend analysis of Arctic sea ice extent
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Silva, M. E.; Barbosa, S. M.; Antunes, Luís; Rocha, Conceição
2009-04-01
The extent of Arctic sea ice is a fundamental parameter of Arctic climate variability. In the context of climate change, the area covered by ice in the Arctic is a particularly useful indicator of recent changes in the Arctic environment. Climate models are in near universal agreement that Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century as a consequence of global warming and many studies predict a ice free Arctic as soon as 2012. Time series of satellite passive microwave observations allow to assess the temporal changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice. Much of the analysis of the ice extent time series, as in most climate studies from observational data, have been focussed on the computation of deterministic linear trends by ordinary least squares. However, many different processes, including deterministic, unit root and long-range dependent processes can engender trend like features in a time series. Several parametric tests have been developed, mainly in econometrics, to discriminate between stationarity (no trend), deterministic trend and stochastic trends. Here, these tests are applied in the trend analysis of the sea ice extent time series available at National Snow and Ice Data Center. The parametric stationary tests, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and the KPSS, do not support an overall deterministic trend in the time series of Arctic sea ice extent. Therefore, alternative parametrizations such as long-range dependence should be considered for characterising long-term Arctic sea ice variability.
Inflammatory markers in relation to long-term air pollution.
Mostafavi, Nahid; Vlaanderen, Jelle; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Beelen, Rob; Modig, Lars; Palli, Domenico; Bergdahl, Ingvar A; Vineis, Paolo; Hoek, Gerard; Kyrtopoulos, Soterios Α; Vermeulen, Roel
2015-08-01
Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution can lead to chronic health effects such as cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Systemic inflammation has been hypothesized as a putative biological mechanism contributing to these adverse health effects. We evaluated the effect of long-term exposure to air pollution on blood markers of systemic inflammation. We measured a panel of 28 inflammatory markers in peripheral blood samples from 587 individuals that were biobanked as part of a prospective study. Participants were from Varese and Turin (Italy) and Umea (Sweden). Long-term air pollution estimates of nitrogen oxides (NOx) were available from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). Linear mixed models adjusted for potential confounders were applied to assess the association between NOx and the markers of inflammation. Long-term exposure to NOx was associated with decreased levels of interleukin (IL)-2, IL-8, IL-10 and tumor necrosis factor-α in Italy, but not in Sweden. NOx exposure levels were considerably lower in Sweden than in Italy (Sweden: median (5th, 95th percentiles) 6.65 μg/m(3) (4.8, 19.7); Italy: median (5th, 95th percentiles) 94.2 μg/m(3) (7.8, 124.5)). Combining data from Italy and Sweden we only observed a significant association between long-term exposure to NOx and decreased levels of circulating IL-8. We observed some indication for perturbations in the inflammatory markers due to long-term exposure to NOx. Effects were stronger in Italy than in Sweden, potentially reflecting the difference in air pollution levels between the two cohorts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Small mammals as indicators of short-term and long-term disturbance in mixed prairie
Leis, S.A.; Leslie, David M.; Engle, David M.; Fehmi, J.S.
2008-01-01
Disturbance by military maneuvers over short and long time scales may have differential effects on grassland communities. We assessed small mammals as indicators of disturbance by military maneuvers in a mixed prairie in southern Oklahoma USA. We examined sites on two soil series, Foard and Lawton, across a gradient of disturbance intensity. A MANOVA showed that abundance of small mammals was associated (p = 0.03) with short-term (cover of vehicle tracks) disturbance but was not associated (p = 0.12) with long-term (loss of soil organic carbon, SOC) disturbance intensity. At the individual species level, Sigmodon hispidus (cotton rat) and Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) occurred across all levels of disturbance and in both soil types. Only P. maniculatus abundance changed (p < 0.01) with short-term disturbance and increased by about one individual per 5% of additional track-cover. Abundance of P. maniculatus also increased (p = 0.04) by about three individuals per 1% increase in soil carbon. Chaetodipus hispidus (hispid pocket mouse) and Reithrodontomys fulvescens (fulvous harvest mouse) only occurred in single soil types limiting their potential as more general indicators. Abundance of P. maniculatus was positively related to shifts in plant species composition and likely reflected changes in vegetation structure (i.e. litter depth) and forage availability resulting from disturbance. Peromyscus maniculatus may be a useful biological indicator of ecosystem change because it responded predictably to both long-term and short-term disturbance and, when coupled with soil, plant, and disturbance history variables, can reveal land condition trends. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.
Long-term (1993-2013) changes in macrozooplankton off the Western Antarctic Peninsula
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Steinberg, Deborah K.; Ruck, Kate E.; Gleiber, Miram R.; Garzio, Lori M.; Cope, Joseph S.; Bernard, Kim S.; Stammerjohn, Sharon E.; Schofield, Oscar M. E.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Ross, Robin M.
2015-07-01
The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, and where a high apex predator biomass is supported in large part by macrozooplankton. We examined trends in summer (January-February) abundance of major taxa of macrozooplankton along the WAP over two decades (1993-2013) and their relationship with environmental parameters (sea ice, atmospheric climate indices, sea surface temperature, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity). Macrozooplankton were collected from the top 120 m of the water column in a mid-Peninsula study region divided into latitudinal (North, South, and Far South) and cross-shelf (coastal, shelf, slope) sub-regions. Trends for krill species included a 5-year cycle in abundance peaks (positive anomalies) for Euphausia superba, but no directional long-term trend, and an increase in Thysanoessa macrura in the North; variability in both species was strongly influenced by primary production 2-years prior. E. crystallorophias abundance was best explained by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), and was more abundant in higher ice conditions. The salp Salpa thompsoni and thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina cycled between negative and positive anomalies in the North, but showed increasing positive anomalies in the South over time. Variation in salp and pteropod abundance was best explained by SAM and the MEI, respectively, and both species were more abundant in lower ice conditions. There was a long-term increase in some carnivorous gelatinous zooplankton (polychaete worm Tomopteris spp.) and amphipods. Abundance of Pseudosagitta spp. chaetognaths was closely related to SAM, with higher abundance tied to lower ice conditions. Long-term changes and sub-decadal cycles of WAP macrozooplankton community composition may affect energy transfer to higher trophic levels, and alter biogeochemical cycling in this seasonally productive and sensitive polar ecosystem.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biswas, J.; Farooqui, Z.; Guttikunda, S. K.
2012-12-01
It is well known that meteorological parameters have significant impact on surface ozone concentrations. Therefore it is important to remove the effects of meteorology on ozone concentrations to correctly estimate long-term trends in ozone levels due to the alterations in precursor emissions. This is important for the development of effectual control strategies. In this study surface observed ozone trends in New Delhi are analyzed using Komogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter, US EPA ozone adjustment due to weather approach and the classification and regression tree method. The statistical models are applied to the ozone data at three observational sites in New Delhi metropolitan areas, 1) Income Tax Office (ITO) 2) Sirifort and 3) Delhi College of Engineering (DCE). The ITO site is located adjacent to a traffic crossing, Sirifort is an urban site and the DCE site is located in a residential area. The ITO site is also influenced by local industrial emissions. DCE has higher ozone levels than the other two sites. It was found that ITO has lowest ozone concentrations amongst the three sites due to ozone titrating due to industrial and on-road mobile NOx emissions. The statistical methods employed can assess ozone trends at these sites with a high degree of confidence and the results can be used to gauge the effectiveness of control strategies on surface ozone levels in New Delhi.
Krieger, Nancy; Singh, Nakul; Chen, Jarvis T.; Coull, Brent A.; Beckfield, Jason; Kiang, Mathew V.; Waterman, Pamela D.; Gruskin, Sofia
2016-01-01
Policy-oriented population health targets, such as the Millennium Development Goals and national targets to address health inequities, typically are based on trends of a decade or less. To test whether expanded timeframes might be more apt, we analyzed 50-year trends in US infant death rates (1960–2010) jointly by income and race/ethnicity. The largest annual percent changes in the infant death rate (between −4% and −10%) occurred, for all racial/ethnic groups, in the lowest income quintile between the mid-1960s and early 1980s, and in the second lowest income quintile between the mid-1960s and 1973; since the 1990s, they have hovered, in all groups, between −1% and −3%. Hence, to look back only 15 years, in 2014, to 1999, would ignore gains achieved prior to the post-1980 onset of neoliberal policies. Target setting should be informed by a deeper and more long-term appraisal of what is possible to achieve. PMID:25971237
Feicht, W; Buchner, A; Riesenberg, R
2001-05-01
Trifunctional bispecific antibodies open up new immunological possibilities in tumour treatment. Prior to clinical application, comprehensive investigations using animal models and in vitro examinations need to be done. To investigate long-term interactions between various immunologically active blood cells and individual tumour cells in the presence of antibodies, we developed an incubation system for experimental cell cultures on an inverted microscope. The system consists of a perspex box with a central moisture chamber with integrated water reservoir, external air circulation heating, and a CO2 supply. The sterile cell cultures are located in the wells of a slide positioned within a depression in the water reservoir. The newly developed incubation system enables continuous observation over the long term of experiments under optimal cell cultures conditions in combination with modern video techniques.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krause, P.; Sornig, M.; Wischnewski, C.; Kostiuk, T.; Livengood, T. A.; Herrmann, M.; Sonnabend, G.; Stangier, T.; Wiegand, M.; Pätzold, M.; Mahieux, A.; Vandaele, A. C.; Piccialli, A.; Montmessin, F.
2018-01-01
This paper contains a comprehensive dataset of long-term observations between 2009 and 2015 at the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere providing temperature values at different locations of the morning and evening side of the terminator of Venus. Temperature information is obtained by line-resolved spectroscopy of Doppler broadened CO2 transitions features. Results are restricted to a pressure level of 1 μbar, ∼110 km altitude due the nature of the addressed non-LTE CO2 emission line at 10 μm. The required high spectral resolution of the instrumentation is provided by the ground-based spectrometers THIS (University of Cologne) and HIPWAC (NASA GSFC). For the first time upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere temperatures at the Venusian terminator derived from IR-het spectroscopy between 2009 and 2015 are investigated in order to clarify the local-time dependences, latitudinal dependences and the long-term trend. Measured temperatures were distributed in the range between 140 K and 240 K, with mean values equal to 199 K ± 17 K for the morning side of the terminator and 195 K ± 19 K for the evening side of the terminator. Within the uncertainty no difference between the averaged morning and evening terminator side temperature is found. In addition, no strong latitudinal dependency is observed at these near terminator local times. In contrast IR-het data from 2009 show a strong latitudinal dependency at noon, with a temperature difference of around 60 K between the equatorial and polar region (Sonnabend et al., 2012). Accord with the instruments of the Venus Express mission a northern-southern hemispherical symmetry is observed (Mahieux et al., 2012; Piccialli et al., 2015). The data shows no consistent long-term temperature trend throughout the six years of observation, but a variability in the order of tens of Kelvin for the different observing runs representing a time step of few month to two years. This is about the same order of magnitude as the variability
Trends in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon concentrations in the Great Lakes atmosphere
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Ping Sun; Pierrette Blanchard; Kenneth A. Brice
2006-10-15
Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) concentrations were measured in both the vapor and particle phases at seven sites near the Great Lakes as a part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network. Lower molecular weight PAHs, including fluorene, phenanthrene, fluoranthrene, and pyrene, were dominant in the vapor phase, and higher molecular weight PAHs, including chrysene, benzo(a)pyrene, and coronene, were dominant in the particle phase. The highest PAH concentrations in both the vapor and particle phases were observed in Chicago followed by the semiurban site at Sturgeon Point, NY. The major sources of PAHs in and around Chicago are vehicle emissions, coalmore » and natural gas combustion, and coke production. The spatial difference of PAH concentrations can be explained by the local population density. Long-term decreasing trends of most PAH concentrations were observed in both the vapor and particle phases at Chicago, with half-lives ranging from 3-10 years in the vapor phase and 5-15 years in the particle phase. At Eagle Harbor, Sleeping Bear Dunes, and Sturgeon Point, total PAH concentrations in the vapor phase showed significant, but slow, long-term decreasing trends. At the Sturgeon Point site, which was impacted by a nearby city, particle-phase PAH concentrations also declined. However, most particle-phase PAH concentrations did not show significant long-term decreasing trends at the remote sites. Seasonal trends were also observed for particle-phase PAH concentrations, which were higher in the winter and lower in the summer. 36 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab.« less
Inohara, Taku; Kohsaka, Shun; Okamura, Tomonori; Watanabe, Makoto; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Higashiyama, Aya; Kadota, Aya; Okuda, Nagako; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu
2014-12-01
Various cohort studies have shown a close association between long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and individual electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities such as axial, structural, and repolarization changes. The combined effect of these ECG abnormalities, each assumed to be benign, has not been thoroughly investigated. Community-dwelling Japanese residents from the National Integrated Project for Perspective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 and 1990-2005 (NIPPON DATA80 and 90), were included in this study. Baseline ECG findings were classified using the Minnesota Code and categorized into axial (left axis deviation, clockwise rotation), structural (left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial enlargement), and repolarization (minor and major ST-T changes) abnormalities. The hazard ratios of the cumulative impacts of ECG findings on long-term CVD death were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazard models, including adjustments for cohort strata. In all, 16,816 participants were evaluated. The average age was 51.2 ± 13.5 years; 42.7% participants were male. The duration of follow up was 300,924 person-years (mean 17.9 ± 5.8 years); there were 1218 CVD deaths during that time. Overall, 4203 participants (25.0%) had one or more categorical ECG abnormalities: 3648 (21.7%) had a single abnormality, and 555 (3.3%) had two or more. The risk of CVD mortality increased as the number of abnormalities accumulated (single abnormality HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.48; ≥2 abnormalities HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.73-2.53). Individual ECG abnormalities had an additive effect in predicting CVD outcome risk in our large-scale cohort study. © The European Society of Cardiology 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.
Building Long-Term Care Policies in Latin America: New Programs in Chile.
Matus-Lopez, Mauricio; Cid Pedraza, Camilo
2015-10-01
Little is known about long-term care policies in developing regions. Latin America is one of those regions. In less than 20 years, it will surpass Europe's elderly population. At that point, Chile will be the country with the largest share of elderly population in the region. For that reason, long-term care pilot programs have been implemented in recent years. This article describes the long-term care policy in Chile, analyzed according to the international experience. National directors of these programs were asked to complete questionnaires with a description of each, and the results of the past year. This information was compared with interviews to experts and official information available online. Programs follow the international trends, although they are underfinanced and lack the necessary mechanisms to control service quality. It is suggested that budgets should be increased, and there should be higher requirements for caregiver training. Also, mechanisms for quality control should be established, and policies should be evaluated for formal direct hiring through a cash-for-care system. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Long-term optical flux and colour variability in quasars
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sukanya, N.; Stalin, C. S.; Jeyakumar, S.; Praveen, D.; Dhani, Arnab; Damle, R.
2016-02-01
We have used optical V and R band observations from the Massive Compact Halo Object (MACHO) project on a sample of 59 quasars behind the Magellanic clouds to study their long term optical flux and colour variations. These quasars, lying in the redshift range of 0.2 < z < 2.8 and having apparent V band magnitudes between 16.6 and 20.1 mag, have observations ranging from 49 to 1353 epochs spanning over 7.5 yr with frequency of sampling between 2 to 10 days. All the quasars show variability during the observing period. The normalised excess variance (Fvar) in V and R bands are in the range 0.2% < FVvar < 1.6% and 0.1% < FRvar < 1.5% respectively. In a large fraction of the sources, Fvar is larger in the V band compared to the R band. From the z-transformed discrete cross-correlation function analysis, we find that there is no lag between the V and R band variations. Adopting the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, and properly taking into account the correlation between the errors in colours and magnitudes, it is found that the majority of sources show a bluer when brighter trend, while a minor fraction of quasars show the opposite behaviour. This is similar to the results obtained from another two independent algorithms, namely the weighted linear least squares fit (FITEXY) and the bivariate correlated errors and intrinsic scatter regression (BCES). However, the ordinary least squares (OLS) fit, normally used in the colour variability studies of quasars, indicates that all the quasars studied here show a bluer when brighter trend. It is therefore very clear that the OLS algorithm cannot be used for the study of colour variability in quasars.
Near-Term Actions to Address Long-Term Climate Risk
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lempert, R. J.
2014-12-01
Addressing climate change requires effective long-term policy making, which occurs when reflecting on potential events decades or more in the future causes policy makers to choose near-term actions different than those they would otherwise pursue. Contrary to some expectations, policy makers do sometimes make such long-term decisions, but not as commonly and successfully as climate change may require. In recent years however, the new capabilities of analytic decision support tools, combined with improved understanding of cognitive and organizational behaviors, has significantly improved the methods available for organizations to manage longer-term climate risks. In particular, these tools allow decision makers to understand what near-term actions consistently contribute to achieving both short- and long-term societal goals, even in the face of deep uncertainty regarding the long-term future. This talk will describe applications of these approaches for infrastructure, water, and flood risk management planning, as well as studies of how near-term choices about policy architectures can affect long-term greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways.
A Long-term study of three rotating radio transients
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bhattacharyya, B.; Lyne, A. G.; Stappers, B. W.; Weltevrede, P.; Keane, E. F.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Kramer, M.; Jordan, C.; Bassa, C.
2018-04-01
We present the longest-term timing study so far of three Rotating Radio Transients (RRATs) - J1819-1458, J1840-1419 and J1913+1330 - performed using the Lovell, Parkes and Green Bank telescopes over the past decade. We study long-term and short-term variations of the pulse emission rate from these RRATs and report a marginal indication of a long-term increase in pulse detection rate over time for PSR J1819-1458 and J1913+1330. For PSR J1913+1330, we also observe a two orders of magnitude variation in the observed pulse detection rates across individual epochs, which may constrain the models explaining the origin of RRAT pulses. PSR J1913+1330 is also observed to exhibit a weak persistent emission mode. We investigate the post-glitch timing properties of J1819-1458 (the only RRAT for which glitches are observed) and discuss the implications for possible glitch models. Its post-glitch over-recovery of the frequency derivative is magnetar-like and similar behaviour is only observed for two other pulsars, both of which have relatively high magnetic field strengths. Following the over-recovery we also observe that some fraction of the pre-glitch frequency derivative is gradually recovered.
Viability of long-term gene therapy in the cochlea.
Atkinson, Patrick J; Wise, Andrew K; Flynn, Brianna O; Nayagam, Bryony A; Richardson, Rachael T
2014-04-22
Gene therapy has been investigated as a way to introduce a variety of genes to treat neurological disorders. An important clinical consideration is its long-term effectiveness. This research aims to study the long-term expression and effectiveness of gene therapy in promoting spiral ganglion neuron survival after deafness. Adenoviral vectors modified to express brain derived neurotrophic factor or neurotrophin-3 were unilaterally injected into the guinea pig cochlea one week post ototoxic deafening. After six months, persistence of gene expression and significantly greater neuronal survival in neurotrophin-treated cochleae compared to the contralateral cochleae were observed. The long-term gene expression observed indicates that gene therapy is potentially viable; however the degeneration of the transduced cells as a result of the original ototoxic insult may limit clinical effectiveness. With further research aimed at transducing stable cochlear cells, gene therapy may be an efficacious way to introduce neurotrophins to promote neuronal survival after hearing loss.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.
2017-12-01
Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.
Sadler, E John; Lerch, Robert N; Kitchen, Newell R; Anderson, Stephen H; Baffaut, Claire; Sudduth, Kenneth A; Prato, Anthony A; Kremer, Robert J; Vories, Earl D; Myers, D Brent; Broz, Robert; Miles, Randall J; Young, Fred J
2015-01-01
Many challenges currently facing agriculture require long-term data on landscape-scale hydrologic responses to weather, such as from the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW), located in northeastern Missouri, USA. This watershed is prone to surface runoff despite shallow slopes, as a result of a significant smectitic clay layer 30 to 50 cm deep that restricts downward flow of water and gives rise to a periodic perched water table. This paper is the first in a series that documents the database developed from GCEW. The objectives of this paper are to (i) establish the context of long-term data and the federal infrastructure that provides it, (ii) describe the GCEW/ Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) establishment and the geophysical and anthropogenic context, (iii) summarize in brief the collected research results published using data from within GCEW, (iv) describe the series of papers this work introduces, and (v) identify knowledge gaps and research needs. The rationale for the collection derives from converging trends in data from long-term research, integration of multiple disciplines, and increasing public awareness of increasingly larger problems. The outcome of those trends includes being selected as the CMRB site in the USDA-ARS Long-Term Agro-Ecosystem Research (LTAR) network. Research needs include quantifying watershed scale fluxes of N, P, K, sediment, and energy, accounting for fluxes involving forest, livestock, and anthropogenic sources, scaling from near-term point-scale results to increasingly long and broad scales, and considering whole-system interactions. This special section informs the scientific community about this database and provides support for its future use in research to solve natural resource problems important to US agricultural, environmental, and science policy. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.
Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.
Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B
2016-12-01
Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P < 0.001), but was predicted to increase from 3.6% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2012 because of increased maternal age, nulliparity, maternal diabetes, history of breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.
Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.
Lorenzo, Daniel; Ochoa, María; Piulats, Josep Maria; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Arias, Luis; Català, Jaum; Grau, María; Peñafiel, Judith; Cobos, Estefanía; Garcia-Bru, Pere; Rubio, Marcos Javier; Padrón-Pérez, Noel; Dias, Bruno; Pera, Joan; Caminal, Josep Maria
2017-12-04
The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree. The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristics were assessed in both groups. Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making. The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.
Long-term trend of thyroid cancer risk among Japanese atomic-bomb survivors: 60 years after exposure
Furukawa, Kyoji; Preston, Dale; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Yonehara, Shuji; Ito, Masahiro; Tokuoka, Shoji; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Soda, Midori; Ozasa, Kotaro; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko
2014-01-01
Thyroid cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation in childhood and adolescence is a topic of public concern. To characterize the long-term temporal trend and age-at-exposure variation in the radiation-induced risk of thyroid cancer, we analyzed thyroid cancer incidence data for the period from 1958 through 2005 among 105,401 members of the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. During the follow-up period, 371 thyroid cancer cases (excluding those with microcarcinoma with a diameter <10 mm) were identified as a first primary among the eligible subjects. Using a linear dose–response model, the excess relative risk of thyroid cancer at 1 Gy of radiation exposure was estimated as 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 0.59–2.70) at age 60 after acute exposure at age 10. The risk decreased sharply with increasing age-at-exposure and there was little evidence of increased thyroid cancer rates for those exposed after age 20. About 36% of the thyroid cancer cases among those exposed before age 20 were estimated to be attributable to radiation exposure. While the magnitude of the excess risk has decreased with increasing attained age or time since exposure, the excess thyroid cancer risk associated with childhood exposure has persisted for >50 years after exposure PMID:22847218
Herrmann, R.
1997-01-01
Integrated watershed ecosystem studies in National Parks or equivalent reserves suggest that effects of external processes on 'protected' resources are subtle, chronic, and long-term. Ten years of data from National Park watersheds suggests that temperature and precipitation changes are linked to nitrogen levels in lakes and streams. We envision measurable biotic effects in these remote watersheds, if expected climate trends continue. The condition of natural resources within areas set aside for preservation are difficult to ascertain, but gaining this knowledge is the key to understanding ecosystem change and of processes operating among biotic and abiotic ecosystem components. There is increasing evidence that understanding the magnitude of variation within and between such processes can provide an early indication of environmental change and trends attributable to human-induced stress. The following four papers are case studies of how this concept has been implemented. These long-term studies have expanded our knowledge of ecosystem response to natural and human-induced stress. The existence of these sites with a commitment to gathering 'long-term' ecosystem-level data permits research activities aimed at testing more important hypotheses on ecosystem processes and structure.
Physical Activity and Function in Older, Long-term Colorectal Cancer Survivors
Johnson, Brent L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Koltyn, Kelli F.; Colbert, Lisa H.
2009-01-01
Objective Increasing age and cancer history are related to impaired physical function. Since physical activity has been shown to ameliorate age-related functional declines, we evaluated the association between physical activity and function in older, long-term colorectal cancer survivors. Methods In 2006–2007, mailed surveys were sent to colorectal cancer survivors, aged ≥65 years when diagnosed during 1995 – 2000, and identified through a state cancer registry. Information on physical activity, physical function and relevant covariates was obtained and matched to registry data. Analysis of covariance and linear regression were used to compare means and trends in physical function across levels of activity in the final analytic sample of 843 cases. Results A direct, dose-dependent association between physical activity and function was observed (ptrend <.001), with higher SF-36 physical function subscores in those reporting high vs. low activity levels (65.0 ± 1.7 vs. 42.7 ± 1.7 (mean ± standard error)). Walking, gardening, housework, and exercise activities were all independently related to better physical function. Moderate-vigorous intensity activity (ptrend <.001) was associated with function, but light activity (ptrend =0.39) was not. Conclusion Results from this cross-sectional study indicate significant associations between physical activity and physical function in older, long-term colorectal cancer survivors. PMID:19123055
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Su, Y.; Hung, H.
Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of α- and γ-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of γ-HCH to total HCH (α + γ) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for γ-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For α-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for α-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the γ-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for α- and γ-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in γ-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, D.; Yang, H.; Sun, F.
2007-12-01
potential evaporations are plotted against the time (year) during the same period. This means that complementary idea cannot provide universally correct predictions on the trend of actual evaporation only from the potential one. In this research, we examine the coupled water-energy balance based on Budyko hypothesis and proposed a conceptual model for predicting the inter-annual variability of annual water balance, and the change trends of water balances due to climate changes. The wet environment evaporation was defined as the boundary condition in the Bouchet hypothesis and introduced into complementary relationship (CR), which combined the actual evaporation with potential evaporation in an equation. However, the CR was derived in a closed system where no horizontal energy advection existed. The effect of the horizontal advection on the CR in a real open system was also analyzed in this study. Using the long-term water balance analysis in the 108 study catchments and flux observation at 7 sites in Asia monsoon region, the regional and seasonal variability of the complementary relationship was examined. Key Words: climate change, evapotranspiration, water balance, flux observation, Budyko hypothesis, Bouchet hypothesis
Mytton, Julie A; Towner, Elizabeth M L; Powell, Jane; Pilkington, Paul A; Gray, Selena
2012-10-01
The relative significance of child injury as a cause of preventable death has increased as mortality from infectious diseases has declined. Unintentional child injuries are now a major cause of death and disability across the world with the greatest burden falling on those who are most disadvantaged. A review of long-term data on child injury mortality was conducted to explore trends and inequalities and consider how data were used to inform policy, practice and research. The authors systematically collated and quality appraised data from publications and documents reporting unintentional child injury mortality over periods of 20 years or more. A critical narrative synthesis explored trends by country income group, injury type, age, gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic group. 31 studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified of which 30 were included in the synthesis. Only six were from middle income countries and none were from low income countries. An overall trend in falling child injury mortality masked rising road traffic injury deaths, evidence of increasing vulnerability of adolescents and widening disparities within countries when analysed by ethnic group and socioeconomic status. Child injury mortality trend data from high and middle income countries has illustrated inequalities within generally falling trends. There is scope for greater use of existing trend data to inform policy and practice. Similar evidence from low income countries where the burden of injury is greatest is needed.
Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xian, T.; Tan, R.
2017-12-01
Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.
Short-term and long-term attentional biases to frequently encountered target features.
Sha, Li Z; Remington, Roger W; Jiang, Yuhong V
2017-07-01
It has long been known that frequently occurring targets are attended better than infrequent ones in visual search. But does this frequency-based attentional prioritization reflect momentary or durable changes in attention? Here we observed both short-term and long-term attentional biases for visual features as a function of different types of statistical associations between the targets, distractors, and features. Participants searched for a target, a line oriented horizontally or vertically among diagonal distractors, and reported its length. In one set of experiments we manipulated the target's color probability: Targets were more often in Color 1 than in Color 2. The distractors were in other colors. Participants found Color 1 targets more quickly than Color 2 targets, but this preference disappeared immediately when the target's color became random in the subsequent testing phase. In the other set of experiments, we manipulated the diagnostic values of the two colors: Color 1 was more often a target than a distractor; Color 2 was more often a distractor than a target. Participants found Color 1 targets more quickly than Color 2 targets. Importantly, and in contrast to the first set of experiments, the featural preference was sustained in the testing phase. These results suggest that short-term and long-term attentional biases are products of different statistical information. Finding a target momentarily activates its features, inducing short-term repetition priming. Long-term changes in attention, on the other hand, may rely on learning diagnostic features of the targets.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fromm, Michael; Pitts, Michael; Alfred, Jerome
2000-01-01
This report summarizes the project team's activity and accomplishments during the period 12 February, 1999 - 12 February, 2000. The primary objective of this project was to create and test a generic algorithm for detecting polar stratospheric clouds (PSC), an algorithm that would permit creation of a unified, long term PSC database from a variety of solar occultation instruments that measure aerosol extinction near 1000 nm The second objective was to make a database of PSC observations and certain relevant related datasets. In this report we describe the algorithm, the data we are making available, and user access options. The remainder of this document provides the details of the algorithm and the database offering.
Accelerated long-term forgetting in children with temporal lobe epilepsy.
Gascoigne, Michael B; Smith, Mary Lou; Barton, Belinda; Webster, Richard; Gill, Deepak; Lah, Suncica
2014-07-01
Adults with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) have been found to have accelerated long-term forgetting, but this phenomenon has not yet been investigated in children. Although deficits in recall of materials after short (20- to 30-minute) delays have been shown to slowly emerge from childhood to adolescence in patients with TLE, it is unknown whether such a trend will also be found in recall of materials after long delays. This study examined the presence of accelerated long-term forgetting in children with TLE and how it relates to chronological age. Twenty-three children with TLE and 58 healthy controls of similar age, sex distribution and socioeconomic status completed a battery of neuropsychological tests, including standardised tests of story recall and design location, as well as two experimental tests requiring the learning of words and design locations to a criterion, both of which assessed recall after short (30-min) and long (7-day) delays. Word recall at the 7-day delay (relative to the 30-min recall) was significantly poorer in the TLE group, compared to the control group. The TLE group also exhibited worse 30-min recall performance on a standardised test of story recall. Individual patient analyses revealed dissociation between performance on the experimental and standardised verbal memory tests; children who were impaired on the experimental test (7-day delay) were not impaired on the standardised test (30-min delay). Compared to controls, patients with a left-hemisphere seizure focus recalled fewer words at short and long delays while patients with an abnormal hippocampus recalled fewer words at the long delay. No between-group differences were found with respect to the design location task. Age negatively correlated with the recall of words after short- and long-term delays within the TLE group, where older age was associated with worse memory. This association was not present in the control group. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show
Trends in Streamflow Characteristics in Hawaii, 1913-2002
Oki, Delwyn S.
2004-01-01
The surface-water resources of Hawaii have significant cultural, aesthetic, ecologic, and economic importance. In Hawaii, surface-water resources are developed for both offstream uses (for example, drinking water, agriculture, and industrial uses) and instream uses (for example, maintenance of habitat and ecosystems, recreational activities, aesthetic values, maintenance of water quality, conveyance of irrigation and domestic water supplies, and protection of traditional and customary Hawaiian rights). Possible long-term trends in streamflow characteristics have important implications for water users, water suppliers, resource managers, and citizens in the State. Proper management of Hawaii's streams requires an understanding of long-term trends in streamflow characteristics and their potential implications. Effects of long-term downward trends in low flows in streams include potential loss of habitat for native stream fauna and reduced water availability for offstream and instream water uses. Effects of long-term upward trends in high flows in streams include construction of bridges and water-conveyance structures that are potentially unsafe if they are not designed with proper consideration of trends in high flows.
[Falls and fractures among older adults living in long-term care].
Del Duca, Giovâni Firpo; Antes, Danielle Ledur; Hallal, Pedro Curi
2013-03-01
To investigate the prevalence of falls and fractures over the past 12 months and associated factors among older adults living in long-term care. Census of all long-term care located in the city of Pelotas, Brazil, in 2008. Falls over the past 12 months were assessed using the following question: "Over the last 12 months, have you fallen?" For those who replied positively, another question was asked: "In any of these falls, have you fractured a bone?" Sex, age, schooling, disability relating to basic activities of daily living, type of financing of the long-term care and hospital admissions were the independent variables. We used chi-square tests for heterogeneity and linear trend in the unadjusted analysis, and Poisson regression with robust variance in the adjusted one. Within the 24 long-term care studied, we collected data for 466 individuals. The prevalence of falls in the past year was 38.9% (95%CI 34.5; 43.4). Among those who have fallen, 19.2% had fractures. Femur (hip) was the most frequent site fractured (43.4%), followed by wrist (10%). In the adjusted analysis, older age, disability for 1-5 basic activities of daily living, living in public institutions and hospital admissions in the last year were associated with higher risk of falls. The high prevalence of falls and fractures highlights the fragility of the individuals living in long-term care. Special attention should be paid to older adults and those with hospital admissions in the last year.
Long-term change in the megabenthos of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (NE Atlantic)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Billett, D. S. M.; Bett, B. J.; Rice, A. L.; Thurston, M. H.; Galéron, J.; Sibuet, M.; Wolff, G. A.
A radical change in the abundance of invertebrate megafauna on the Porcupine Abyssal Plain is reported over a period of 10 years (1989-1999). Actiniarians, annelids, pycnogonids, tunicates, ophiuroids and holothurians increased significantly in abundance. However, there was no significant change in wet weight biomass. Two holothurian species, Amperima rosea and Ellipinion molle, increased in abundance by more than two orders of magnitude. Samples from the Porcupine Abyssal Plain over a longer period (1977-1999) show that prior to 1996 these holothurian species were always a minor component of the megafauna. From 1996 to 1999 A. rosea was abundant over a wide area of the Porcupine Abyssal Plain indicating that the phenomenon was not a localised event. Several dominant holothurian species show a distinct trend in decreasing body size over the study period. The changes in megafauna abundance may be related to environmental forcing (food supply) rather than to localised stochastic population variations. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in organic matter supply to the seabed may be responsible for the observed changes in abundance, species dominance and size distributions.
Long-term EEJ variations by using the improved EE-index
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fujimoto, A.; Uozumi, T.; Abe, Sh.; Matsushita, H.; Imajo, Sh.; Ishitsuka, J. K.; Yoshikawa, A.
2016-03-01
In 2008, International Center for Space Weather Science and Education, Kyushu University (ICSWSE) proposed the EE-index, which is an index to monitor the equatorial geomagnetic phenomena. EE-index has been improved with the development of the MAGnetic Data Acquisition System and the Circum-pan Pacific Magnetometer Network (MAGDAS/CPMN) and the enormous archive of MAGDAS/CPMN data over 10 years since the initial article. Using the improved EE-index, we examined the solar cycle variation of equatorial electrojet (EEJ) by the time series analysis for EUEL (one part of EE-index) at Ancon in Peru and the solar activity from September 18, 1998 to March 31, 2015. We found that the long-term variation of daily EEJ peak intensity has a trend similar to that of F10.7 (the solar activity). The power spectrum of the daily EEJ peak has clearly two dominant peaks throughout the analysis interval: 14.5 days and 180 days (semi-annual). The solar cycle variation of daily EEJ peak correlates well with that of F10.7 (the correlation coefficient 0.99). We conclude that the daily EEJ peak intensity is roughly determined as the summation of the long-period trend of the solar activity resulting from the solar cycle and day-to-day variations caused by various sources such as lunar tides, geometric effects, magnetospheric phenomena and atmospheric phenomena. This work presents the primary evidence for solar cycle variations of EEJ on the long-term study of the EE-index
Long-term use of short- and long-acting nitrates in stable angina pectoris.
Kosmicki, Marek Antoni
2009-05-01
Long-acting nitrates are effective antianginal drugs during initial treatment. However, their therapeutic value is compromised by the rapid development of tolerance during sustained therapy, which means that their clinical efficacy is decreased during long-term use. Sublingual nitroglycerin (NTG), a short-acting nitrate, is suitable for the immediate relief of angina. In patients with stable angina treated with oral long-acting nitrates, NTG maintains its full anti-ischemic effect both after initial oral ingestion and after intermittent long-term oral administration. However, NTG attenuates this effect during continuous treatment, when tolerance to oral nitrates occurs, and this is called cross-tolerance. In stable angina long-acting nitrates are considered third-line therapy because a nitrate-free interval is required to avoid the development of tolerance. Nitrates vary in their potential to induce the development of tolerance. During long-lasting nitrate therapy, except pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), one can observe the development of reactive oxygen species (ROS) inside the muscular cell of a vessel wall, and these bind with nitric oxide (NO). This leads to decreased NO activity, thus, nitrate tolerance. PETN has no tendency to form ROS, and therefore during long-term PETN therapy, there is probably no tolerance or cross-tolerance, as during treatment with other nitrates.
Reuse Requirements for Generating Long Term Climate Data Sets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleig, A. J.
2007-12-01
Creating long term climate data sets from remotely sensed data requires a specialized form of code reuse. To detect long term trends in a geophysical parameter, such as global ozone amount or mean sea surface temperature, it is essential to be able to differentiate between real changes in the measurement and artifacts related to changes in processing algorithms or instrument characteristics. The ability to rerun the exact algorithm used to produce a given data set many years after the data was originally made is essential to create consistent long term data sets. It is possible to quickly develop a basic algorithm that will convert a perfect instrument measurement into a geophysical parameter value for a well specified set of conditions. However the devil is in the details and it takes a massive effort to develop and verify a processing system to generate high quality global climate data over all necessary conditions. As an example, from 1976 until now, over a hundred man years and eight complete reprocessings have been spent on deriving thirty years of total ozone data from multiple backscattered ultraviolet instruments. To obtain a global data set it is necessary to make numerous assumptions and to handle many special conditions (e.g. "What happens at high solar zenith angles with scattered clouds for snow covered terrain at high altitudes"?) It is easier to determine the precision of a remotely sensed data set than to determine its absolute accuracy. Fortunately if the entire data set is made with a single instrument and a constant algorithm the ability to detect long term trends is primarily determined by the precision of the measurement system rather than its absolute accuracy. However no instrument runs forever and new processing algorithms are developed over time. Introducing the resulting changes can impact the estimate of product precision and reduce the ability to estimate long term trends.Given an extended period of time when both the initial measurement
Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.
2011-01-01
In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.
Li, Zheng-Quan; Ma, Hao; Mao, Yu-Ding; Feng, Tao
2014-02-01
Using long-term observation data of acid rain at Lin'an Regional Background Station (Lin'an RBS), this paper studied the interannual and monthly variations of acid rain, the reasons for the variations, and the relationships between acid rain and meteorological factors. The results showed that interannual variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS had a general increasing trend in which there were two obvious intensifying processes and two distinct weakening processes, during the period ranging from 1985 to 2012. In last two decades, the monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS indicated that rain acidity and frequency of severe acid rain were increasing but the frequency of weak acid rain was decreasing when moving towards bilateral side months of July. Acid rain occurrence was affected by rainfall intensity, wind speed and wind direction. High frequency of severe acid rain and low frequency of weak acid rain were on days with drizzle, but high frequency of weak acid rain and low frequency of severe acid rain occurred on rainstorm days. With wind speed upgrading, the frequency of acid rain and the proportion of severe acid rain were declining, the pH value of precipitation was reducing too. Another character is that daily dominant wind direction of weak acid rain majorly converged in S-W section ,however that of severe acid rain was more likely distributed in N-E section. The monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS was mainly attributed to precipitation variation, the increasing and decreasing of monthly incoming wind from SSE-WSW and NWN-ENE sections of wind direction. The interannual variation of acid rain could be due to the effects of energy consumption raising and significant green policies conducted in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Montavont, A; Kaminska, A; Soufflet, C; Taussig, D
2015-03-01
Long-term video-EEG corresponds to a recording ranging from 1 to 24 h or even longer. It is indicated in the following situations: diagnosis of epileptic syndromes or unclassified epilepsy, pre-surgical evaluation for drug-resistant epilepsy, follow-up of epilepsy or in cases of paroxysmal symptoms whose etiology remains uncertain. There are some specificities related to paediatric care: a dedicated pediatric unit; continuous monitoring covering at least a full 24-hour period, especially in the context of pre-surgical evaluation; the requirement of presence by the parents, technician or nurse; and stronger attachment of electrodes (cup electrodes), the number of which is adapted to the age of the child. The chosen duration of the monitoring also depends on the frequency of seizures or paroxysmal events. The polygraphy must be adapted to the type and topography of movements. It is essential to have at least an electrocardiography (ECG) channel, respiratory sensor and electromyography (EMG) on both deltoids. There is no age limit for performing long-term video-EEG even in newborns and infants; nevertheless because of scalp fragility, strict surveillance of the baby's skin condition is required. In the specific context of pre-surgical evaluation, long-term video-EEG must record all types of seizures observed in the child. This monitoring is essential in order to develop hypotheses regarding the seizure onset zone, based on electroclinical correlations, which should be adapted to the child's age and the psychomotor development. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier SAS.
Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J
2016-01-01
Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small